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Who is betting on the blues in Buckingham?

November 28th, 2009

Is laying the Tories here an almost total certainty?

Like one or two other punters, it seems, I have been taking as much as is available on lay bets on the Tories in the Betfair Buckingham market.

My reasoning is quite straightforward – this is the seat of John Bercow, the Speaker, who in the traditional way renounced his link with his former party and all others when he got elected to the post in June.

At the coming general election he will stand as “The Speaker” and the convention is that he will not be opposed by the main parties. Certainly there will be no Conservative, Labour or Liberal Democratic candidates in the constituency.

So Betfair appear to have made a big cock-up in listing the Conservatives as a runner. The party won’t be standing and if you think that Bercow is going to do it then the correct option is “Any Other”.

Fortunately the market has only recently gone up and only £945 has been traded. But of that the vast bulk, £882, has been for or against the “Conservative”.

My guess is that those who have bet on the party have done so in the belief they were backing Bercow. Those who’ve “laid” have recognised this error and are taking as much as becomes available.

I couldn’t decide whether to go on quietly placing my bets here or to write a post about it. I’ve decided on the latter course.

Mike Smithson