Are UKIP and the Lisbon driving the Tory poll decline?
November 29th, 2009
Can Dave win back the Tory doubters?
All seventeen polls published between the end of the Tory Party conference and Cameron’s dropping of his pledge to hold a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty had the Conservatives on at least 40%; of the eight published since then, only twice has the Tory share broken into the forties.
Two conversations I’ve had in the last week give anecdotal evidence that Cameron’s move has gone down badly in sections of the party. Both raised the issue unprompted and spoke disparagingly of Cameron and the new, vague, policy. Both were with people who appear typical of UKIP’s membership and support (middle-class males aged 55+), both were lifelong Tories, both have been moderately senior within their local parties (former councillors, constituency officers etc.).
Europe has for years been low on the lists of priorities that get mentioned when people are asked for the issue/s of most concern to them. That, however, doesn’t always reveal the full extent of an issue’s political impact.
What gives Europe a booster factor is that for many people actively involved in politics, it’s important to them. Cohesion or disharmony among local activists feeds through to the effectiveness of campaigns on the ground. The same is true of parties in parliament.
Another factor is that these disillusioned Tories do have alternatives. An Angus Reid Strategies poll earlier this month asked those who answered that they were less likely to vote Tory as a result of the policy change who they’d vote for instead.
This, of course, follows UKIP’s second place in the EU election in June and their continuing solid figures in several of the polls. There’s form, availability and impetus. Beyond the switchers, just as Labour’s MORI share has improved as their support firms up, so the Tory share may have dropped as previously firm supporters identify themselves as less likely to vote at all.
Furthermore, it doesn’t matter if not all of those who are less favourable towards the Tories switch as a result, or if some weren’t going to vote Tory anyway: if Labour is polling in the high twenties as most pollsters indicate, it only takes a loss of two or three percent more for the Conservatives to move from having a comfortable majority to being a minority government.
Both the logic and evidence suggests that if such a move was to take place, it should already have done so. The question is, has it (or was the timing of the change in poll numbers a coincidence and due to something else), and if it has, will it last?
PaddyPower has a market on the number of votes that UKIP will get at the election - and the betting suggests a significant increase on 2005. David Herdson
MessageSpace Advertising
1st again ?
Hooray, I was right, it was Lisbon.
Cameron needs to find some red meat to throw his rightwing, as that is where he is shedding support.
Climategate ain’t helping either. A lot of Tories are skeptical of the warming agenda, but Cameron is all over it…
HOWEVER, I reckon Cameron may, once again, prove a lucky leader even where he is undeserving. The new Iraq stuff is explosive - and totally overshadows everything else. And the timing is immaculate from a Tory perspective.
At the very least the Inquiry will remind people why they hate - or hated - this Labour government.
I expect Labour to shed a couple of points to the LDs, SNP and others as a result. And it could get much worse: and all of it running up to the GE.
Sean I find it very unlikely that Labour will lose many votes over the inquiry. 2005 was the perfect opportunity for waverers to desert Labour, and the Lib Dems picked up a few points. For all Brown’s faults, I have found that people do not blame him for Iraq. I stand by my prediction that the Lib Dems are going to end up hugely squeezed at this election, and will end up on around 14%, no matter how many Angus Reid polls are commissioned.
Climategate finally makes the MSM, or at least the most important British Sunday:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/environment/article6936328.ece
Plato will be pleased. Not only that, it seems the CRU have “accidentally” lost all the raw data on which they base their arguments. They only realised they accidentally lost this data just as they were being forced to reveal it.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/environment/article6936328.ece
This isn’t even “the dog ate my homework.” This is “the budgie ate my homework.”
Unbelievable.
Apols, first link wrong. Yertiz again:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/environment/article6936289.ece
I think there are three ways the Lisbon thing potentially damages the Tories.
1) It moves a couple of percent of very EU-centric voters over to the UKIP. This is important in that these people are probably quite serious about politics and very likely to vote. But you could still see a lot of them voting tactically for the Tories where it matters.
2) It takes off a bit of the off Cameron’s “new kind of politician” shine. A lot of people probably now think that Cameron was committed to some kind of referendum, and that he broke his promise. This probably isn’t a big effect, and you’d expect it to fade a bit over time.
3) It potentially makes what we used to call the Tory Press (pretty everyone except the Guardian, The Independent and The Mirror) less one-sidedly anti-Brown and pro-Cameron. IIRC they’ve been fairly remorselessly anti-Brown since a little bit after he announced that he wouldn’t call a referendum on Lisbon, and I think they’ve been more interested in anti-Tory stories since Cameron announced that he wouldn’t either. If I’m right about this (and it apparently doesn’t extend to the Murdoch papers), it’s potentially quite serious. Hostile media coverage could exert a constant downward pressure on the Tory share right through to the election.
OK, three comments in a row, even at 6am. Not a good sign. And now it’s four.
Off to the swimming pool!
Sawadee KAP.
POLL ALERT
New Ipsos MORI poll in Sunday Times Scotland. I’m getting 404 Error from the link, so no details, but they asked multi option question: independence v “devo max” v Calman proposals v status quo.
The Tories are not going to lose many (if any) Seats at the next GE and if they do lose a Seat or two it could be because UKIP ruined them in a CON-LD marginal.
The problem becomes exclusively that of Lisbon costing them gains in LD-CON target Seats, because this can hardly be an issue where Labour is currently installed.
My eyes glaze over when people go on about Europe being a big issue.It is UKIP’s party piece and they may poll well, but largely in areas where the Tories are home and hosed anyway.
7: Is this the link?
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/scotland/article6936379.ece
If it’s giving you a 404, try telling your browser not to accept cookies from http://www.timesonline.co.uk. Worked in Opera, anyhow.
Edmund, I am surfing on a mobile phone, which for some reason the Times website hates. No problem on most other sites although often hard to post on blogs.
Stuart, The Times website is weird like that with Opera - could be with other browsers too. (Or you might have Opera on your phone - their main thing is mobile browsers not web ones.) I used to get links from pb.com always giving me 404’s, but I could get around them by surfing to another page on the website and pasting the URL in. Then I found the “turn off cookies” trick. No problems after that.
Two threads ago: 188 by seanT
Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha !!!!!!!!!!!!!
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191. I’d be amazed if there isn’t a recount in the Richmond Park constituency next year.
I wouldn’t. Recounts are rare; potentially close results are much more common.
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The Sunday Telegraph once described my [then] MP, Geraint Davies, as a “laughably obvious Blairite today”. I think susanna is a laughably preposterous booliak.
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399. What McAskill said was:
“There are no fixed time limits but life expectancy of less than three months may be considered an appropriate period.”
… nowhere did he actually say that he might still be alive after 3 months.
Er, that’s what “There are no fixed time limits” means.
OK, Stuart, here are the main points to you don’t have to visit the website, as Murdoch doesn’t like it when people visit his newpapers’ websites.
Ipsos Mori, November 19 and 23
It found that 46% of Scots want to remain in the UK but with Holyrood given more powers, down one point from a comparable ICM poll in June.
One in three (32%) favour keeping devolution with the same powers at present (+10) while 20% favour independence (-8).
The latest poll found that only 25% want a referendum “as soon as possible” while 50% say it should be held “in a few years’ time but it is not a priority at the moment” and 20% are completely opposed to a referendum at any time.
Cameron has capitulated on Lisbon and now says that Scottish devolution has been a “success”, and has promised to legislate to give the Scottish Parliament broader tax-raising powers.
Lots and lots of Tories (a majority?) hate both Lisbon and Devolution. Therefore, it is hardly a surprise that PM Dave’s honeymoon is over before he has even won the election.
I note that Goldie is now getting the blame for the woeful sub 20% performance north of the border. Wrong scapegoat. It is PM Dave himself who is goin
… going down like a lead balloon with Scottish voters.
Cheers Edmund
So,only 20% are opposed to a referendum. This’ll be fun.
Van Rompuy will have had four months in “power” by the election. By then, people will see how insignificant his role is - maybe that will calm the frothing-at-the-mouth UKIPs. Probably not though, as this isn’t about logic is it?.
13. How many preferred devolution with fewer devolved powers? How many wanted an end to devolution, and rule by the UK parliament? Or were they not given the option?
No such option seems to have been given John, however abolishing the SP and returningi all its powers t Westminster generally attracts about 8% of respondents to there polls.
16 What Stuart might have written…
“So,only 20% are in favour of independence. This’ll be fun.”
Part of me thinks that people will get nervous about David Cameron (wondering about whether he’s up to the job) and that 2010 might be like 1992. Maybe that’s why the Conservative support is drifting down in the polls at the moment. The other bit of me thinks that people will have nightmares about “five more years of Gordon Brown” and therefore vote Conservative in Bootle.
I’m still to be convinced that the Tories have taken that much of a polling hit since their Conference, especially one linked directly to Europe and not to the rise of “others” after expenses came around again. Just above 40% to just below 40% - maybe. I suspect that Labour were counting on the Tories suffering much more pain over the tooth of Europe being pulled and the tough words on spending. Tories can now get their election caravan on the road with most of the pot-holes ahead having been filled in.
And if asked, I’d say Tory High Command would trade in a couple of points now if it allows the chatterati to gone about hung Parliaments - if it keeps Gordon in place as their opponent in the GE.
And Labour still has the confessional of the PBR to come. That has the ability to leave their caravan up on bricks, when people start getting some comprehension of the way 12 years of economic mismanagement has caught up with us in just a year.
I see that Betfair have suspended their Buckingham market.
A very interesting piece. There is a tranche of voters in the centre and centre right who are Europhile, for whom the Conservatives are worryingly Eurosceptic. I would include myself in this number. The new EU policy is more sensible than the UKIP policy of holding a referendum on Lisbon anyway, but it doesn’t make me more inclined to vote Tory. I still might (Lib Dem is this month’s frontrunner), but I don’t feel any warmer to the Tories’ EU policies than I did 3 months ago. Tory high command might wish to consider how to win that section’s votes.
any likely Tory voter who switches his/her vote to UKIP in the 2010 GE is a fool. this election is not about the EU. that nasty corrupt edifice will ultimately implode of it’s own making. the GE is about ridding the UK,for ever,of an anti-libertarian monstrosity run by some very dangerous people.
URW is right IMO. Votes actually lost to UKIP in a General Election are very unlikely to cost Conservatives many, if any, seats. Many people will no doubt give them their votes but this will almost exclusively be in seats where the Conservatives will win anyway.
This is not a zero sum game. Putting forward bonkers policies on Europe (like a Lisbon referendum) will lose far more “important” voters. People in marginal seats, who may instead vote Labour or LibDem, because they a) fear the Tories getting obsessed about Europe, and/or b)they see the Cameron can be spooked by the right wing of his party.
Every vote lost to Lab/Lib in marginal seats is worth at least 5 lost to UKIP is safe seats.
Swingback is driving the decline, a law as immutable as the Law of Gravity. The closer we get to the election, the narrower the gap will become, although the Tories will still finish ahead.
Personally anyway, I think the recent movement in the polls is due to people starting to think that the economy is improving, and the country may get away without having to take its medicine. Note that this is not just a Conservative “dip” but a slight Labour increase.
The forthcoming dose of inflation and associated pressure on wages will quite probably soon put paid to that in the new year.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/scotland/article6936379.ece
that’s the Scotland poll. Good news for the Union.
Just got my local Sunday paper which has a four page wrap-round promoting the incumbent Labour MP who loses his seat with a 3.5% swing.
A little note in the bottom right hand corner of the back page says that this was paid for out of his communications allowance. In other words my taxes are paying for Labour’s propaganda.
What a way of getting round the party’s funding crisis - get mugs like me to pay.
Good to see Dave, getting a good team together, the cabinet will have no problems with their tax planning. Heard of jobs for the boys but this takes the biscuit, how many wasters can he get in his team , no wonder the polls are dropping as people see what they can expect if Dave and his chums get in.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6936364.ece
28. And bad news for Scotland.
29 Mike:
I also donate as best I can. Is it not true that all MPs of whatever party have this fund? Or not?
Perhaps Climategate is another boost for UKIP
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jamesdelingpole/100018236/climategate-the-conservative-backlash-begins/
Cammo under attack from the right and the stupid(sorry green/left) sides of the party.
29 – The introduction of the communications allowance always was a rouse to fund MPs, mainly Labour due to their majority; however there are strict rules wrt the bumph they propagate.
If it contravenes the rule, report it.
28. Independence died the same day as Lehman Brothers. If it ever lived. It’ll surely be at least ten years before it is seriously back on the agenda - and, by then, what will be left of the oil?
We may have seen the small window of opportunity for the SNP snap shut.
Gordon Brown’s “Britain of aspirations”?
One in three households across Britain is now dependent on the state for at least half its income, it emerged today……….
Gordon Brown has been repeatedly attacked for building up a society heavily reliant on tax credits and other state aid. The Chancellor’s tax credits scheme was “only the most prominent example of welfare policies intended to create a grateful electorate rather than free-thinking citizens”, the report says
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1542427/One-third-of-..
24. This (and others posts) misses the point by a metric mile.
The problem for Cameron with his referendum U-turn (or his laxity in allowing his actions to be perceived as such) is that it taints his USP - as a new kind of honest politician.
Before he’s even reached office, he looks just like another Blairite spinner and shyster, promising a referendum with a “cast-iron” guarantee then, oops, changing his mind when it suits him.
Even for the (many) voters who don’t give a frick about Europe, the damage to his image is noticeable. THAT’s the problem. And of course he has hacked off the 10-20% of Tories who care about this issue more than anything else.
He should have been cleverer. He should have come up with a formulation whereby he promised a referendum on Europe within his first term, the exact terms as yet unspecified.
I think we should be careful not to over-egg the evidence for Tory decline. The previous spate of 17% leads exaggerates the effect. Also, ARS has shown no decline at all.
Imo, at the moment what we have evidence for is a short-term dip rather than a progressive decline. We’ll know in another two weeks, I guess.
The Conservative drift to just under 40% from just over 40% since the conference season could simply be due to their firming up on some policies - EU and responding to the recession. This was bound to lose them some support as some folk found they didn’t agree with, or would be losers, from these positions.
I have two contradictory thoughts on this issue.
I agree with SeanT that it knocks Camerons image, but , unless I’m mistaken, UKIPs polling hasn’t risen with the Tory drift down.
On a betting note, some firms have responded to the Zac Goldsmith story.
Victor Chandler are yet to do so.
I’d advise a bet with them before they shorten.
37 - Sean,
Firm up your views on the Lib Dems in Cornwall and maybe we can have a bet.
They cant lose half their seats as there’s five constituencies.
Cameron is starting to look like Blair. UKIP is starting to look like the Conservative Party.
I will vote Conservative because a split vote is a vote for Labour. However, there are many people who dont think 2 moves ahead.
33 This is a good opportunity for Cameron to promise an independent review of climate change modelling at the University of East Anglia and how much confidence we can place in it.
So what is the logic of there ‘moderately senior people?
“Brown’s government has been a social and economic disaster, and his European policy threatens the very existence of this country, but David Cameron’s annoyed me a bit, so I’ll risk giving Brown five more years”
They’ll come to their senses once they’ve had their little whinge.
Will UKIP leaning supporters really allow “Brown, 5 more years” to happen when push comes to, in the ballot box?
Euro elections yes, next March/May, surely thy aren’t that collectively stupid, are they?
I think that Cameron has made a tactical error probably planned by 3-jobs-George hopping from the Economy to an MP to Campaign strategy and doing none at all well…..
41. That was my discreet little joke.
Hence the second line of my comment - “from the well-informed Cornishman sitting by a swimming pool in Bangkok”.
There will, though, be six constituencies in Cornwall in 2010.
I predict the Libs will lose 2 or 3 of their 5.
37 - Surely everyone realised that David Cameron is just another (very good) politician?
I’m intrigued to see that you seem to think that Europhile votes somehow don’t count. Votes from the centre actually count double, because it’s one vote in your ledger and one vote away from a serious challenger. Votes from the right only count single, because if it’s not in your ledger, it will be in the ledger of someone who is not going to be elected, come what may.
45 saddo “Will UKIP leaning supporters really allow “Brown, 5 more years” to happen when push comes to, in the ballot box?”
Yes they really are so determined that they would rather see an economic collapse than have no referendum.
Why would people angry over Lisbon vote for Labour, who voted against a referendum when there was a real chance of having one, or the Lib Dems who went through that elaborate temper tantrum to disguise their breach of manifesto as an act of principle? I really think it nonsense that people annoyed about Lisbon would vote Labour or Lib Dem.
Cameron could offer an IN/OUT referendum and get a 10% boost overnight from EUKIP and other others. The problem is that there is no certainty of the outcome. If it were to go ‘IN’ Britain might be locked in for another decade.
The other problem is the electoral system. If a few by elections can be rigged to boost Labour’s flagging fortunes, then how much easier would it be to rig a referendum where there has been no polling of any substance to provide a guide as to the likely result.
Cameron could not promise an instant referendum until he has tidied up the voting and electoral system, to banish malpractice, the problems with postal votes etc. That will take time.
If he promises a referendum it could redouble the efforts of the narrationists to push the Hung Parliament narrative all the harder, and to plan how to bring it about by rigging the marginals. They might be doing that anyway.
He will have to weigh his options very carefully.
He is playing off the chance of real votes gained from EUKIP etc, against the genuine threat of electoral malpractice which can be easily engineered by those who want to block Cameron from power.
47 - OK, I bet you £50 at evens that the Lib Dems win 4 or more of the 6 Cornish seats.
I can’t beleive that Lisbon is really that big an issue, otherwise UKIP would be rising ahead in the polls. I also don’t think it will factor in the GE, especially that Lord Pearson seems to be dragiing the party closer to the BNP.
What I think is happening is that some of the negative things about labour are falling away , like the 10p tax drifting from memory. In addition on one hand the economy is improveing a bit, but the problems with our structural debt wont be tangible enough to see.
The tories do need to start doing better though. It’s been a good time for Labour if only becuase they’ve stopped the rot and reached their hard-core base.
“Cameron could offer an IN/OUT referendum and get a 10% boost overnight ”
Evidence?
48. The number of serious committed europhiles in the UK - i.e. people who are so pro-European that EU matters can actually sway their vote - is already vanishingly small.
5%? 3%? 2%?
The proportion of these who might consider voting Tory must be even more infinitesimal. You could probably list them by name on a sheet of A4.
There’s an article on Conhome saying that satisfaction with DC has slipped due to this… to 80%. I’m sure he won’t worry too much, and they speculate that some of the dip may be due to AWS and the central parties increasingly bizarre and authoritarian approach to candidate selection.
48. Genuinely europhile votes aren’t centrist votes, though. Nor will the Tories be getting many of them.
52. A phrase springs to mind. Hm. What is it? I could get probably better odds elsewhere?
You can therefore have this bet if YOU give ME £100 at evens that the Tories will form the next government.
Also your terms are vague. But that’s perhaps understandable, given the reorganisation of the boundaries. I am saying that 2 of the 5 Cornish constituencies presently held by the LDs will be lost.
Meanwhile Labour’s attempts to extinguish rural businesses continue…
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/retailandconsumer/6678330/Rate-hike-threatens-existence-of-rural-petrol-stations.html
To lighten the mood, more comedy from LabourList:
“It’s hard to understand why they’re so obsessed with the deficit. It’s likely to reach 70% of GDP next year. Immediately after the Second World War, it stood at 230%. That didn’t kill us – we simply saw it as the price to pay to guarantee our political survival. Now we’re being asked to pay a much smaller price to guarantee our economic survival. It’s time the Tories learned to take that seriously.”
“But of course the Tories are changing their tune. They’ve seen their opinion poll lead plummet and that seems to have made them much less reliable in their public pronouncements. In fact, they’re back to their old ways, tossing out shiny new promises: a 10% reduction in government’s carbon footprint in a year, rewards for recycling, all sorts of dreams and mirages. We seem to be back to spin.”
http://www.labourlist.org/the-unnecessary-pain-and-austerity-of-a-conservative-government
Apologies if already posted, by Times article confirming that Zac Goldsmith is a non-dom for tax purposes which won’t aid his chances in Richmond.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6936364.ece
45 “surely thy aren’t that stupid, are they?”
Support & Funding was denied to McCain in 2008.
McCain lost 48-52% - by a piddling 2%. They have Barak Husein Obama now. That will teach McCain for being so liberal.
Can some people be that stupid? Yes, they can.
Have you have met these people? They are very arrogant and will cut their nose off to spite their face.
I want Cameron removed from the leadership but first priority is to get our country back.
31. malcolmg, it ain’t such a bad poll. The overwhelming majority of Scots want a referendum (despite the headline) and the overwhelming majority of Scots reject the Unionist status quo. Independence by degrees is certainly the best way forward. We’ll see how things change if the Tories form the next government, even though they look like they are beginning to fumble the ball on that score. Incidentally, a rather sterling suggestion here:
http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/home-news/cameron-urged-let-scottish-tories-set-up-breakaway-party-1.987139
Seems like common sense to me. The Scots Tories are disadvantaged by being attached to their English counterparts. Mind you, a wider symptom of the decline of the Union and the disintegrating links that bind Scotland and England together
55 - You overlook the much larger group of those who are vaguely “pro-Europe” and who perceive the Conservatives’ “anti-Europe” stance as worrying. I’m not often typical of any group of swing voters, but on this particular example, I am. This is not an absolute deal-breaker for me voting Tory, but it is something that puts me off quite a bit. There are plenty more like me, and you would need access to microdots if you were to try to get them all on a sheet of A4.
61. The hysterical frothing by the Lib Dem Oakeshott is a good laugh there - sounds like a posher version of Mark Senior.
51 All Cameron need do is offer a referendum, “Do you approve of the Lisbon Treaty?”
It would need not imply action but would give Conservatives the mandate for action.
I think there are some people out there who dont understand the level of anger and sense of betrayal.
Lucas on Marr: unconvincing on her answers on climate change, I thought. The Norwich debacle has left the Greens wrong-footed; their previous moral certainty of their cause is no longer there.
64. It’s not wise to generalise to other voters from your own views, Antifrank. And I think to claim your views are typical of swing voters you will have to produce some evidence.
55/57 - Probably not in antifrank’s case but in this context “Europhile” can be used as shorthand for general Eurosceptics who are not happy having a moan, but are generally put off by any suggestion that the ‘headbangers’ can influence Tory Party policy.
I mean come on Sean - you are saying that Cameron should have offered “a referendum” on a matter as yet undetermined! How long could that line hold?
Will the Cons candidate for Richmond, West London have to resign?
If he does not his opponents will have a field day over the story regarding his taxes in the Sunday Times today.
Either way he seems potentially badly damaged.
66 If Cameron offered a referendum on “in or out”, the whole of the camapign would be derailed, as he would refuse to answer the question that would be put a thousand times - “Would you recommend a vote for in or out?” Far from getting a polling boost, his opponents would tear him to bits for “dithering”.
70, let’s hope he gets axed. Claiming green protests have the right to criminal damage because of climate change should’ve gotten him the boot.
44. No logic at all - it’s pure emotion.
I fully expect the two people in question to vote Tory come the election but then again, both are Conservative activists, live in marginal seats and are fully aware of the implications of not doing so. Also, the sort of emotional outburst I got in late November may have cooled by early May.
However, while those two will ‘do their duty’, I’m sure they’re representative of a category of voter some of whom have felt themselves pushed from the Conservative fold over the referendum issue. From a personal point of view, I’m very sanguine about them sodding off: they’ve caused little but trouble and defeat for years. Even so, their votes would be quite handy.
68 - Fair enough. In return, I expect a similar self-denying ordinance from Eurosceptics who somehow claim that the Lisbon Treaty is a hot topic with the general public.
69 - I would describe myself as a mild Europhile. Your categorisation might not be all that far wrong in my case! There is plenty about the EU I don’t like and would change. But for all its faults, I regard it as an essential, not a nice-to-have.
70. This pillock, Zac Goldsmith is an embarrassment to the conservatives.
He is the candidate in my area, but I cant bear the thought of voting for him.
14 / Stuart. I don’t know much about Tory opinion in Scotland but most Tories I know are generally happy with devolution, though would like a more equitable financial settlement.
The only change that’s seen as needed is English Votes for English Legislation (and also for Welsh and Northern Irish) i.e. a sensible answer to the West Lothian Question.
75. In fact I wont!
77, I can’t blame you. What sort of seat is yours? If he were in mine I’d (very reluctantly) vote for him to keep Balls out. But in a more usual sort of seat I’d abstain or vote against him.
74. Perfectly fair Antifrank. FWIW my take is this - the EU is viewed with distate and distrust by a clear majority of the public, with genuine fans few and far between.
However, there is no doubt that the voters don’t in general get excited over the specifics - indeed many would rather forget about the whole thing.
Part of the problem for eurosceptics is that many voters, while they dislike the EU, are also fearful of what a rupture with it might entail.
I happen to think this view is misplaced, but it certainly exists. As a result, I oppose the ‘grand clash’ approach some of my fellow eurosceptics want and prefer a gradual disengagement.
The way to durably win the public over is by a progressive series of opt outs. After each one, when it can be shown the sky has not fallen in, we can move on to another.
This has already worked very well with the euro - remember ten years ago polls showed the public against the idea but nevertheless thinking UK membership was ‘inevitable’? Now it is off the agenda entirely.
I think most of this support will come back when the choice is between PM Cameron or PM Brown.
However, I personally believe its time we had an In or Out referendum. Not particularly for the conveniance of the Conservative Party, but just because for almost as long as I’ve been alive the issue of Europe has been convulsing our political life and I’m sick of it, quite frankly. Lets put the issue to bed, once and for all and whatever the outcome, at least our politics, after splitting during the campaign, can come back together.
As a LibDem I really hope Goldsmith stays to emjoy the warmth of the fires of electoral hell. I guess he has a pretty good chance as he is one of Dave’s mates but if I were a Tory I would be furious.
I believe we’ve already pointed out he is trying to buy the seat - now we know where the money came from.
76. So the Tories will be supportive of full fiscal autonomy for Scotland then? You really can’t get a more equitable financial settlement than that.
58 - You seem to have had you cojones replaced by corollaries.
Two points, there are no odds elsewhere, although I could get much better odds on your spurious bolt on bet.
Secondly, it may have escaped your attention that a set which is no longer being contested cant be lost.
Anyhow, the offer lasts till midnight, £50 says the Lib Dems will win over half the new Cornish seats..
I expect a eunuch-like shuffling now.
Prove me wrong.
77. One of the benefits of STV is you would have another Tory candidate to vote for.
78. Richmond, London.
It’s a horrible dilema, but one I will face with fortitude.
81 - I think we all hope that he stays on for entertainment value.
Daves Mates do of course offer protection, but Zacs real problem is his lack of financial incentives.
If only he were give the big IHT cut that Dave has promised him, he would astound us all with ever higher levels of efficiency.
Runnymede, we analyse the politics similarly even if we differ in our opinions and preferences. I would differ only in that the views of the British public are more nuanced than quantum states of Europhile and Europhobe. As alex suggests, plenty of “Europhiles” would take issue with a lot of the EU’s policies and practices. Whether someone called himself a Europhile or a Eurosceptic might depend on how recently he’d seen a stripey blazer.
79 - I kind of wish we were in the Euro these days. Slightly uneasy having at the moment when the threat of devaluation looms.
*having savings
I wonder if any bookmakers watching would like to put up a market on Zac Goldsmith remaining as the Tory candidate?
With the amount of money it would cost him, Goldsmith would have to be stupid not to claim legal non-dom status.
80 I quite agree GIN. In or Out should be in the new manifesto.
We deserve our say after 40 years of dumb compliance.
83. Just give me the £100 bet on the next government, the one you have avoided for six months despite your endless wittering about the total shiteness/corruption of the Tories - and we can have a £50 bet on the Cornish on YOUR terms, that’s how generous I am.
i.e. I think the Lib Dems will not win more than half the new Cornish seats.
I expect you to wobble away from these bets like a fat, clucking capon. But prove me wrong.
re 84. So you’ll be voting for Susan Kramer then Weathercock?
82. I’d certainly be happier to see a much closer relationship between spending and income (and for that matter, I’d like to see it for local councils as well).
I’m not quite sure what you mean by ‘full fiscal autonomy’. There remain the reserved functions - national debt, defence, foreign policy, overseas aid etc - and these have to be funded centrally so there has to be some level of ‘federal’ tax to cover them.
I don’t see anything wrong with the different component parts of the UK having different tax rates (something which the current settlement has allowed since 1999 anyway).
re 92. Maybe you should have looked at the PH Marginals poll before offering the bet Sean. This showed that only St Austell and Newquay of the LDs Cornish seats, would be taken by the Tories.
66. That’s not a referendum, it’s an opinion poll.
David Herdson, SNP fiscal autonomy means Westminster paying for bank bail-outs and Edinburgh getting the proceeds of sale of Scottish-named banks.
91 - Don’t see the attraction for a Eurosceptic (as opposed to a Europhobe - BOO) of an “In or Out” Referendum. The public would vote “In” (probably with many Eurosceptics having to campaign on the ‘in’ side) at which point the Eurosceptic cause would be damaged for years. UK politicians would then have no choice but to engage fully in the European project because the moral case for arguing for a changed relationship between the UK and Europe would be damaged beyond repair.
Why do you think it is LibDem policy?
The problem for ukip is that its not a european election. Its a uk election why send an mp who wants uk independence to westminster. So common sense tells me that ukip will struggle to have an impact nationwide. However I think there is good reason for speculation in the thread as it could many liberal democrat seats in the southwest. Maybe there is value in the market for liberal holds in cornwall devon and somerset because clearly cameron is a fudger like blair. Just tell people what they want to hear hey dave and smile behind your fluffy green tree and bright sky.
93. You should be so lucky, Mike.
I have however met Susan Kramer, and my wife has corresponded with her, she is quite a good MP and have nothing against her.
But voting for her, thats another matter. Abstention is the only course, unless UKIP are standing.
I totally agree with Grandstander: that poll is great for Scotland, especially when one considers the rabidly Unionist MSM. Have you seen Toenail’s blog on the independence referendum? - a big fat BBC lie in the first sentence.
That Sunday Herald story is also vital to absorb. Make no mistake: Goldie is under attack internally. She supports Calman, therefore certain factions want her head.
That set of numbers makes little sense, given the very significant gender difference (men go to UKIP, women to Lib Dems and/or other -who? BNP? Green?) unless we know what propotion of the switchers are female.
60. “To lighten the mood, more comedy from LabourList:”
Numerous errors and they obviously weren’t listening to Mervyn King this week. I’m no fan of the Tories, least bad option, but Labour getting in again will be a disaster if they think like that.
70,72,75 How did Zac Goldsmith ever imagine that he had any chance of winning Richmond Park as a NonDom?
The chief blame must lie with the Local Party and with CCHQ in not having picked this up earlier - don’t they have basic questionnaires which potential candidates are required to complete requiring disclosure of such “details” - how absolutely pathetic if not.
Earlier this morning Chandlers’ odds for this constituency were:
Goldsmith (Con)……1/2
Kramer (LibDem)…..11/8
As a result of this disclosure, I reckon these odds should reverse at least. Goldsmith, who always faced a very tough task, is now dead meat imho.
I put a few hundred on a LibDem win at 11/10 - which still seems to be available with Will Hill though maybe a better rate elsewhere. Betfair have nothing it seems.
95. I said my bet was generous, but that’s just the kind of guy I am.
If tim can prove he actually has a Y chromosome by giving me by bet on the next government, he is welcome to take up my generous wager on the Cornish constituencies.
101. A poll showing support for independence at an historic low is “great for Scotland”? How true.
On the Scotish question, how many votes will Dave collect when English voters know that he will stop Scotlands MPs voting on English matters.
I feel this will get him a large number of votes in working class areas, ie The North of England.
Marquee Mark, are you a troll?
Clearly the 2 questions you posed are different to the one I posed. Either you are stupid or a troll.
All Conservatives need to do is offer a poll “Do you approve of the Lisbon Treaty?”. The British voice needs to be recognised.
Cameron’s promise of “not letting things stand” is as useful as his promise on the Treaty. His promises are worthless.
And I am a conservative.
104 - “How did Zac Goldsmith ever imagine that he had any chance of winning Richmond Park as a NonDom?”
As opposed to? Kensington and Chelsea?
194. Yes. The Zac Goldsmith revelation is poor, poor politics from the Tories. Just idiotic. A billionaire rich kid who avoids taxes wants the rest of us to live in huts.
Dear god.
They are lucky that the media is going to be focussed on the Iraq inquiry: now the lead story on Google News UK.
Good Morning Strictly Arrested Voters For Nick Palmer Worldwide
Meanwhile …. I note Mr Wasabi is a tad fast and loose with the factlets in relation to the US presidential Election. Obama won by 7.26 points.
Meanwhile II …. Those who wish to have a late night chortle before retiring to the comforts of “er indoors” will no doubt have had their chukle muscles well execised by ‘voreas’s’ late night claims that US neocons were in fact soci*lists. My word George W, Dick Cheney et al were reds under the four posters after all !! …. and the voreas red cherry on top of the cake is that it turns out for decades that most Conservative MP’s were opposed to the death penalty !! …. So just Tory floggers it seems !!
This weekend Goldsmith, the Tory candidate for Richmond Park, told The Sunday Times that he plans to give up his non-dom status next year. The general election must be held by June.
Do not waste your money backing the Lib Dems.
Well if Mr Goldsmith reads this blog, or more importantly Conservative Central Office, then we can expect a resignation on Monday or Tuesday, because someone will probably use the problem to major embarrass the Conservatives at Question Time on Wednesday.
Watching McKinnons mother on TV this morning, what an issue for Clegg to champion.
94 Or, all taxes are raised in Scotland, which then provides a subvention to the “federal parliament” to cover reserved policy areas. I’d be very wary about some kind of pan-federal UK tax being levied to cover the federal policy areas. How could we be ensure that the tax receipts to cover the federal spending are equitable from all 4 countries of the Union? There is so much inherent difficulty in ensuring that, that such a proposal is a non-starter.
If there is to be a Union, I don’t see why the powers of the federal parliament/ of the Union should be anything more than foreign affairs, defence and monetary policy.
Climategate has surpassed Global Warming on Google, and still not a peep from the BBC.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/11/28/climategate-surpasses-global-warming-on-google-autosuggest-still-blocked/#more-13350
99. “Its a uk election why send an mp who wants uk independence to westminster”
I don’t see the logic there. Surely it would be for the same reason as people vote to send a member of any other party to Westminster: to campaign for their manifesto and, if enough of them are elected, to enact it. In the case of minor parties, the objective isn’t to return an MP but to send a message of rejection to the larger parties and to flag up the issues that are important to those voters.
Two other reasons to consider: Westminster elections matter most to all the big parties because they’re the ones that determine who governs the country (devolution aside etc). They’re therefore the ones where protest votes have an impact. Even more pertinently, if Britain was to consider withdrawal from the EU, it’s Westminster where it would be decided.
Note: significantly more people support Scottish independence than support the Scottish Conservative Party. Probably more than double.
If Unionists are happy with that then that is fine by me!
Unionist complacency is one of the SNP’s greatest assets.
106 - What a shame you are backing down.
The offer on the SeanT “Tin mine/mine are tiny” bet is open till midnight.
I expect nothing but pastie faced quivering from the expat clot.
113 - Actually it arguably undermines Tim’s IHT argument. The defence against Tim’s accusation that it is a tax cut for “the rich” being that “the rich” find ways to avoid it anyway. Here is the evidence
Goldsmith should just highlight the amounts he gives to charity etc, which would otherwise be swallowed by the UK taxpayer.
Conhome on the dissatisfaction issue.
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/thetorydiary/2009/11/grassroots-satisfaction-with-cameron-dips-to-80.html
Out here in the sticks most Tories are UKIP really, they’ll vote for Dave’s lot to get Labour out, but after that…….?
115. The BBC and Climategate: was a reporter put under pressure to ignore the story?
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/damianthompson/100018243/the-bbc-and-climategate-was-a-reporter-put-under-pressure-to-ignore-the-story/
104 - Daves Mates offer protection for Nondoms.
117. Those in favour of a referendum in the short term is 25%, significantly lower than the ~60% it was earlier in the year.
For me, it’s pretty clear that the SNP needs to get back to focussing on winning key, core battlegrounds before pushing as hard as it currently is with its independence plans. Don’t get wrong, the party has the arguments to win a yes/no referendum, but the timing right now is all wrong.
http://www.snptacticalvoting.com/2009/11/poll-on-independence-in-times.html
122 - I think you will recall that it was Osborne who first proposed the levy on non-doms (ironically to pay for the IHT deduction).
FTP Actually the most interesting part of that brownite nonsense was this “The government is scheduled to raise the threshold from £325,000 to £350,000 next April.” So what that means is even today there are vast tracts of the south where 2 and 3 bed houses cost more than £350,000 and this is the problem with Labour’s attack on IHT cut. Basically first time buyers and hard working families with small homes would be hit by this tax.
Good luck arguing this one Labour.
Darling refused three times to confirm the raise next April, so it’s conceivable that they will u-turn to try and get back on the other side of their own dividing line
***** BETTING POST *****
104 As of 5 minutes ago, Ms Kramer was available at odds of 11/8 with Chandlers and SkyBet to retain Richmond Park. Need I say more?
(IIRC, the streetwise Shadsy has already trimmed her price to 5/6.)
On Goldsmith I would be happy if he failed to be elected, his antics in that court case were disgraceful.
On Scotland I have a hunch that DC will offer a “Calman Plus” option. Possibly offering fiscal autonomy with a cut of the oil money in return for abolishing Barnett. Would solve quite a few problems!
On the subject of a Lisbon Referendum, there are two separate issues.
1) Does Cameron lose any votes by refusing a Referendum? The answer is clearly Yes, but they appear mostly to be in seats where they aren’t needed. (I.e. safe seats.)
2) Does Cameron gain any votes by refusing a Referendum? This one is not clear. Some voters at the Centre are happier with the new policy position, but are they enough happier to change their vote? (If they are, then they will probably be in seats that the Tories need to win.)
Has there been any polling to answer the second question? Have any pollsters investigated whether Centre voters will actually change their vote over the new EU policy? Will it affect anti-Tory tactical voting?
112 - Quite. If he has changed his status by the time of the election then the LibDems won’t be able to use it in their campaign literature.
“Goldsmith used to claim non-Dom status to avoid tax doesn’t have quite the same ring about it”.
I am slightly bemused by PfP’s implication that Richmond Park is the kind of area that would be especially resistant to someone who utilises efficient tax planning…
124 - Zac ticks so many sensitive Tory boxes its difficult to know where to start.
Please let him remain a candidate.
118. I’m actually offering you a bet I think you are likely to win: my hunch is that the Lib Dems will lose two or three of the five constituencies they hold now in Cornwall, which is what I said upthread (taking the reorganised boundaries into account).
But they might well gain the extra seat.
All you have to do to take this generous bet, you quivering great pile of oestrogen, you CAP-subsidised castrato, you weird lonely tedious ballet-loving bleating Mister Bean on holiday in Bury St Edmonds bombastic blowhard with ovaries, is screw your courage to the sticking palce, and take a bet at evens on the next government, surely not something of which you are afraid, given your apparent opinion of the Tories.
There. Let us not bore the pb reasdership any more. You are too scared to take this bet, despite your ceaseless spin, so the question is academic. You’re a fricasee of fritness in a frostpink frou-frou skirt.
Coda.
I thought Marr had quite a good show today - Lucas was definitely a bit er er I thought on Climategate - ‘it’s not getting warmer but but, its only a tiny handful of scientists, yes its embarrassing for them’.
I got the distinct impression that the CRU have been cast into outer darkness. Booker has a sensible column today
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/christopherbooker/6679082/Climate-change-this-is-the-worst-scientific-scandal-of-our-generation.html
and Delingpole is enjoying beating up Cameron using his own blog comments [modesty prevents me from posting the link :D]
129 - Three questions, actually.
3) Does he lose any votes by promising a referendum?
The ICO seem to be taking it seriously - let’s hope so
“Mr Holland, of Northampton, complained to the Information Commissioner’s Office (ICO) last week after the leaked emails included several Freedom of Information requests he had submitted to the CRU, and scientists’ private responses to them.
Within hours, a senior complaints officer in the ICO wrote back by email: “I have started to examine the issues that you have raised in your letter and I am currently liaising with colleagues in our Enforcement and Data Protection teams as to what steps to take next.”
The official also promised to investigate other universities linked to the CRU, which is one of the world’s leading authorities on temperature levels and has helped to prove that man-made global warming not only exists but will have catastrophic consequences if not tackled urgently. Mr Holland is convinced the threat has been greatly exaggerated…”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/copenhagen-climate-change-confe/6678469/Climategate-University-of-East-Anglia-U-turn-in-climate-change-row.html
Other peoples wealth is always interesting but I can’t quite get a handle on “non-domicile” status for a UK born British citizen (possibly also a French one?) but indications are that as his father was non-domiciled he inherited this (?).
From reading the Times article I gather that Zac Goldsmith is a beneficiary of a discretionary trust based in the Cayman Islands, a trust which owns his house & farm and one presumes may also pay him an income.The Trust presumably also supports Sir James’s 8 children, ex wife & mistress and grandchildren etc.
Zac G is resident for tax purposes so pays UK tax on his UK income but his non-domicile status means he does’t on foreign earnings. Does he as an individual have any other than from investments he made himself or property left to him outside of the trust?
Can’t see that changing his status has any impact on the Trust, which remains based in Cayman Islands and in which he desn’t officially own any assets. Does the UK taxman assume that he has 1/8th of it? How does that work?
In other word will changing his status actually cost him much? I presume it costs something otherwise why bother keeping it so long?
Politically its very damaging but the Times article doesn’t make much sense talking about “huge sums” if Goldsmith doesn’t own many assets.
SA all out for 112.
Jimmy got 5 wkts
129 I am somewhat bemused by your odd comment, I was simply referring to the seat in question, so that those interested might avail themselves of a bet, no other reason. Of course, I’d forgotten, you’re not in the least interested in betting are you?
129 - “He used to have non dom staus and now he’s gatting a big inheritance tax cut” would work well for the Tories.
131 - Thats what I thought.
Backing down on your peninsular posturing.
126 PfP thanks a lot I own you a drink sometime - I just opened an account and put the maximum on with SkyBet.
Anyone who can’t see what is wrong with “I’ve lived most of my life in Richmond” but because I am very rich I don’t pay taxes there must have missed most of this year.
Dougie Alexander auditions for a role in The Thick of It
“The right attitude is not to have an end date but an end state in mind,” he said.
He added: “That’s why it’s vital as we’ve been setting out in recent days that we match the military surge with a political surge.”
http://page.politicshome.com/uk/govt_planning_end_state_not_end_date_for_afghan_mission_says_alexander.html
H/T Paul Waugh
136 - Strange, there must be a delay on my TV.
#114, by Grandstander November 29th, 2009 at 10:20 am
If there is to be a Union, I don’t see why the powers of the federal parliament/ of the Union should be anything more than foreign affairs, defence and monetary policy.
You raise some interesting points GS, but I don’t think you have thought everything through. Here are a couple of examples:
High-speed Line II: Why should English tax-payers fund a link to Edinburgh/Glasgow and not York, Newcastle and Durham?
Company Law: Do you really think that devolved responsibilities could work within a federal system made up of a Californian-sized economy and three Rhode-Islands? England - by shear size - will always have the greater resources.
I have no problem with casting-off Scotland from England, but I do worry if people up-north have considered the consequences. Maybe you should ask ‘Tupac to offer odds…?
138. He’s 34 years old. I imagine inheritance tax is the least of his concerns right now.
On topic, it’s interesting that 55% of people who say Lisbon makes them less likely to vote Tory after the policy decision say that they are now more likely to vote Labour or LibDem. While I continue to argue that Lisbon is not a constitution even I wouldn’t say that we are more keen on a Lisbon referendum than the Tories.
So if the line of thinking of these voters is logical (not something one can guarantee), it presumably means:
1. I was thinking of voting Lab/Lib.
2. Because they wouldbn’t give me a referendum, I was then thinking of voting Tory
3. Now the Tories won’t give me one either, I suppose I may as well vote Lab/Lib.
The 40% who say they’ll vote UKIP or Other (you know who) are the more obvious pattern, but it all goes to show that it’s hard to predict the way peoples’ minds work.
even in one day cricket, you have to get 10 wickets to dismiss a side.
Cameron is a slick politician.
His answers are clever initially with the drugs issue and then the referendum.
But just maybe voters after Blair would like a yes or no type answers to direct questions.
137 - Apologies then. I read something in your comment “how Goldsmith ever thought he could win Richmond Park as a non-dom…” that clearly wasn’t there.
Where you got an idea that i wan’t interested in betting, I don’t know.
141. Apologies. still one wkt left SA now 117
143 - His mother is a lot older, and Zac will be the priority for Osbornes tax policy.
On the actual thread subject, any Tory for whom euroscepticism is more important that winning the next election needs a slap. Giving your vote to a single issue party in a General Election is perverse.
Deniers are still trying to claim the stolen email farrago as “climategate”. (If climate deniers really want to prove AGW is false they could try getting a peer reviewed research paper published rather than involving themselves in illegal activity).
Many Tory grassroots members are deniers.
Another corrosive agent on the Tory Poll lead.
David Cameron is not going to poll the British public on any subject related to the EU. He said on Marr last week he did not want to put the IN OUT question because he wants in. Also the moment you raise the issue of the EU you move towards anarchy in the Conservative party, two factions campaigning opposite sides of the issue. We know how that story ends.
Cameron will do (and is doing) precisely the opposite of what he said publicly: letting the matter rest.
The Tories will get on doing what they do best once back in government. That is: helping their rich friends get richer, destroying the national health service and making life miserable for anyone born without a silver spoon.
149 - You do realise that an IHT cut would probably be more popular in Richmond Park than any other constituency in the country?
[144] Nick, I suggested upthread that there may well be a lot of Green voters in those “others”. The Greens are an anti-EU party. The only reason this isn’t noticed here is that 98% of contributors (as OGH’s survey will reveal :lol:) are climate change deniers.
We could be getting another ‘mini-expenses’ scandal coming up
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1231749/MPs-revolt-plan-reveal-unpaid-bar-bills.html
Hmmm on Richmond Park, well I’ve had £100 on the LD’s at 11/8 but surely if Goldsmith resigns the Tories would be favourites again? Don’t think I’ll max out my account allowance on this one.
Has some poor s*d built a data base of the ages of all the parents of Conservative MPs and candidates ? Quite an effort for someone who doesn’t vote labour at the moment.
152. “That is: helping their rich friends get richer, destroying the national health service and making life miserable for anyone born without a silver spoon.”
If the Tories really wanted to destroy the NHS, they’d probably have had a crack at it when they were in power for 18 years.
153 alex
Not true; I suspect support will be higher in Kensington and Chelsea.
155 - Why don’t they just pay up, and then they won’t be on the list?
138 It appears the inheritence tax limit still kicks in at £325,000 that is vast tracts of the south who will have to pay it. Difficult to believe Labour could be so stupid as to spin they were doing something about this and then not do anything. All the Tories have to do is remind people that under Labour most people in normal homes in the south will have to pay inheritence tax.
157. In tim’s defence, I think Zac Goldsmith’s mother is pretty well-known in her own right. Though I don’t recall her name, off the top of my head.
153 - I doubt that prioritising Zac Goldsmith for a tax cut is even popular in his own living room(s) right now.
126 - Skybets price is still available and they’ll let you have up to £300
149 - tim, if the IHT level was raised to £1m then the difference between tax on that and the 350k level is 260k, do you really think the likes of Zac Goldsmith sees that as a large amount of money ? mmmm
153 - I reckon K&C is too wealthy.
It seems Sir Humphrey has been less than tactful
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1231807/Government-dying-says-civil-servant-fresh-blow-Gordon-Brown.html
157 - The Lady in question has a nightclub named after her, she’s hardly a secret.
156 I’m struggling to see how all this matters in Richmond Park of all places. I’d have thought it relatively uninteresting in that seat. Another close result with a likely Lib Dem win with the help of incumbency.
154 The Green vote may get a knock if the AGW theory gets the stuffing knocked out of it.
If I was a soft greenie who heard about this, I’d be concerned I’d been duped. When even a hard greenie like Monbiot goes ’sorry readers’, that says a lot.
Whilst some question his motives for doing so [like attempting to kill off the career of the main fall guy sooner rather than later], it makes a difference.
Whether the scandal will break through a la the dodgy dossier, we’ll have to see. That took a while to gain traction as it seemed so implausible - even now I still l can’t quite believe it.
146. I agree. This was a strategic mistake by Cameron. Imagine the shock and surprise if he’d come out and said “I promised you a referendum on Europe, you will get a referendum on Europe in my first term”.
The details could have been *finessed* later.
The headlines would have been brilliant. “Politician sticks to promise on Europe”. Even those who don’t care about Europe would have been impressed.
He blew it. I’m not sure it will lose him the election coz his opponents are so shonky, but it was a seriously missed opportunity. Voters are yearning for a straight talking prime minister. For just one single obviously honest politician.
Cameron is not that man. He’s just a more arrogant, less charming Blair, who is lucky to be facing one of the most inept and mendacious prime ministers in British history.
163 - So what’s the exact line then?
- At present Zac Goldsmith is not set to benefit from IHT cut.
- He will however be hit by a levy on non-Doms
- However to become an MP he’s going to have to give up non-dom status
- So Osborne is proposing an IHT cut to enable ZG to do so without losing out financially!
Brilliant!
Alex do you live in Richmond by any chance?
The time line isn’t important. Osborne ‘the brilliant tactician’saved the Tory party single handedly by offering to raise IHT massively. It would be cost free because it would be financed by the nasty spongers ‘The Non Doms’!
Meanwhile Dave with special advisor and fellow Old Etonian-the ecologist billionaire PPC for Richmond Zak Goldsmith-would save the planet.
George summed up the whole wheeze with the haunting line ‘We’re all in this together”.
I don’t know whether it’s a Christmas thing but these three really are the gift that keeps on giving! If Labour’s admen don’t at least make us laugh then they should be working in Belgium.
144 I am sure there are a massive pool of people waiting to vote for your party nick. I guess we will see in may
166
at the end quote.
167
Ok, I’ll take that as an assurance that you will not be making up your quota of 80 comments with the ages of parents of candidates as their names crop up.
On topic, the answer seems to be “yes.” It’s only a slight polling decline, and this corresponds with the fact that only a small percentage of the population care passionately about the EU. In all likelihood, the biggest impact will be in seats that are safe for the Conservatives, apart from some marginals in the South West.
Would Sean T’s approach have assisted the Conservatives, in the run up to the election? Yes, I think so. I honestly think that there would be very few centrist votes to be lost over pledging some kind of referendum, post-Lisbon. Ten years ago, we had the Pro-Euro Conservative Party standing against the official party, in opposition to its stance on the EU, and it won 1.2% of the national vote.
I suppose Cameron’s view was that post-election, such a pledge would cause all sorts of problems, and so it was preferable to take a hit now, rather than in 12 months time.
Like runnymede, I agree that the stupidest approach of all would be to promise an In/Out referendum, unless the Conservative Party had made up its mind that it would be campaigning to come Out.
173 I imagine most are looking forward to working in brussells as a pay off for selling the British people down the river.
169 - Plato, the only possible political damage over climategate is for the Tories, and Cameron in particular if people like Delingpole focus their attacks on him.
Please go ahead.
I wonder how Vince’s mansion tax will go down with the residents of Richmond Park - are we still awaiting detail, or has this been finalised?
170 - Sean you keep promoting this line about promising a referendum on a question as yet undetermined.
The idea that such a line would have held for more than a week is somewhat unlikely. The press and opponents (and even supporters) would have asked what the referendum would have been on. And without an answer he would have just looked ludicrous. It would not have had to be finessed “later”. It would have had to be finessed, immediately.
167. Would that be Stringfellow Goldsmith ?
“The headlines would have been brilliant. “Politician sticks to promise on Europe”. ”
The wouldn’t have been the headlines. A vague “oh we’ll sort out the details later” referendum would lead to him being crucified.
Reading this thread, I wonder if the problem is that the EU is a vote losing subject for the Tories, full stop. The Europhobes get disaffected, while normal human beings remember that the Tories on this subject are as single-minded and appealing as Jehovah’s Witnesses. If the subject has been closed down, the Conservatives’ poll ratings will shrug off any short term hit as the issue goes quiet again.
170
No, Her Majesty’s press corps would have been camped on the doorsteps of Ken Clarke and Michael Hesletine ready to provide us with the headlines, “Tory Split on Europe” and the whole sorry saga would have begun again.
It seems certain cyber-nats haven’t been “independent” voices at all, but SpAds.
http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/home-news/culture-minister-s-aide-quits-over-abusive-blog-s-dirty-tricks-1.987185
http://www.newsoftheworld.co.uk/scottish/scottish_news/622949/Alex-Salmond-is-fuming-over-party-worker-Mark-MacLachlan-scandal.html
Non-dom status is a weird and indefensible anomaly that should be phased out entirely. UK EU functionaries should also be required to pay full UK taxes.
172 - Yep.
182 - Creamed Goldsmith
URW - I’m hoping tim wasn’t referring to Tramps.
Annabels.
Put the question like this:
Q Why did you do something entirely legal for personal gain that the overwhelming number of people are unable to do?
A (A.N. Expenses-Cheat MP & Z Goldsmith, in unison) Because I can!
You can fill in the response of the average voter in Richmond or anywhere else for that matter.
177 That was precisely their reasoning. They said their view was they are likely to have to put through very unpopular spending cuts and that Labour and the Unions would seize on a Referendum to get people to kick the Tory Government in the teeth for reasons that were nothing to do with Brussels.
Got to say I am impressed with tim.
Up late saturday posting on here, back on again just before 9 am posting away.
all this on behalf of a party he says he cant vote for at present.
Most amusing.
“ready to provide us with the headlines, “Tory Split on Europe” and the whole sorry saga would have begun again”
Indeed. And the punditry would be asking how Cameron had got into this mess given his promise was related to a referendum pre-ratification.
If in view of changed circumstances Cameron reviewed his stance on global warming and decided not to support any deal from Copenhagen, I presume all the people who say he’s ‘renaged’ on Europe in view of changed circumstances, will start screaming about him ‘renaging’ on climate change?
Not.
Floater, tim says he is a Labour voter on strike. It looks more as if he’s working to rule.
192. Wouldn’t almost everyone do something legal for personal gain if they could? That strikes me as a rather silly formulation.
144-How is it different from a constitution? Because there is no reference to anthem or flags? The writer fo the origianl the Frecnh chap who bought his name, said there was no difference.
As for Zac. Horrible greenie oik that he is, why is there the suggestion that he can’t be an MP because he does not pay tax. Since when does paying tax mean you can vote/become an MP? The issue should eb why are taxes so high and why do they all end up being p!shed up against the wall by NuLabour?
As for warmists, I have recently noticed the use of the word denier. Not sure who pointed it out first, SeanT? Has the comforting ring of rhyming with hоlocаust denier and so firmly putting it into that box. Despite this. as with talk about immigration=racism I suspect it too will become acceptable to talk about the topic.
194
I’m more impressed by susanna, a working mother with 2 children have the energy to post long comments at 11.00 at night.
170. Typically it was Boris Johnson who advocated sticking to a referendum on Europe - and got a lot of flak for it at the Conference. This, of course, was hardly surprising given the media narrative, but I wonder if Boris’s ability to say what he thinks without equivocation might have greater voter appeal in the political climate we’re in. It’s common wisdom to assume he doesn’t have the political skills for the top job. I’m beginning to wonder if we need to reconsider what political skills are required right now. Trying to appease the media never works for the Conservatives at any rate.
176. fr.
Here are some new seat prices, which may be of some interest;
Camborne & Redruth
Liberal Democrats 2/5
Conservatives 7/4
Labour 33/1
UKIP 100/1
Mebyon Kernow 100/1
St Austell & Newquay
Conservatives 4/6
Liberal Democrats 11/10
Labour 100/1
UKIP 100/1
Mebyon Kernow 100/1
Taunton Deane
Conservatives 8/11
Liberal Democrats Evs
Labour 100/1
UKIP 100/1
199 - Actually of course he does pay tax. He just doesn’t pay tax on earnings from overseas investments.
193 I think that Labour would be far too shell-shocked, following a very hefty defeat, to offer more than token opposition, in a referendum.
However, I accept that the main priority of an incoming government would have to be to reduce the budget deficit, and to restore the economy.
What bothers me more is that there doesn’t really seem to be much of an appetite, in the higher ranks of the Conservative Party, for regaining lost powers from Brussels.
As one who lives in the Richmond Park constituency, I had decided not to vote for Zac Goldsmith due to the power station nonsense - passionate belief in eco issues trumps the law. However, I am beginning to feel a crumb of sympathy for him in light of so many of the above attacks which seem to hold out that he is contemptible simply because he is rich by way of an inherited trust situation.
192 Do many people do otherwise? Most of us aim to minimise our tax bills.
204. Which is why we need to work to ensure the maximum number of Tory MPs is elected.
203-And why should he?
Let’s hope the whole Copenhagen jamboree goes the way of other UN jamborees. The Durban one was the ebst. Still, at least 5 star hoteliers and restauranteurs (wonder how many veggie/vegan meals will be sold as we are told not to eat so much meat/fish by our betters) and hard pressed airlines will get the boost.
184 However, the subject will never be closed down, because no final deal is ever reached between the UK, and the EU, as to where the balance of power should lie.
200. Indeed. I have also been impressed by the extraordinary development in susanna’s political acumen only a day after starting to post on PB.
206-Then we can just have a vote in Parliament to leave the EU and claim that as we are staying in the EEA it is not necessary to have a referendum.
Labour and LDs will support this as there is no tradition of referendums in the UK.
171, 173
Yes, that was a very good point that tim made.
This re-bleating epidemic must be brought under control. You talk about the tory herd but I defy you to point to any example of tory posters slavishly echoing other people’s posts with zero added value the way the labour lambies do.
Why not strike out on your own and cover one of the areas where tim is weak? tim has never found the time to explain to us the socialist principles behind Darling’s IHT giveaway of October 2007, so please let us have your thoughts on that.
Is is possible the drifting polls are just right-leaning people “sending a message”, they know politicians watch opinion polls, and that they drive policy, so it follows a good way to push Cameron toward a more right-leaning agenda is to tell polls you will be voting UKIP, which is not remotely the same thing as actually voting UKIP, polls are risking become another tool in the bag of the informed voter are they not ?
FPT
Pretty dishonest reporting from the MoS.
How can they devote an article on Goldsmith’s advice to Blair, without mentioning resolution 1441?
The fact is, the so-called smoking-gun letter from 29.07.2002 was written before resolution 1441 was passed on 08.11.2002.
Goldsmith’s subsequent advice relied heavily on resolution 1441, both in his reasonings and his final judgement:
“Lord Goldsmith concluded that ‘a reasonable case can be made that resolution 1441 is capable in principle of reviving the authorisation [of the use of force] in Resolution 678 without a further resolution.’”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Goldsmith,_Baron_Goldsmith
204 Your attitude is far too sanguine in my view. In any case it would not just be Labour but the Lib Dems and the Unions etc. With deep spending cuts it wouldn’t take much for people to vent their spleen on the Government particularly if full recovery takes years.
209. I hope you are not suggesting we have people posting on here using false biographical details and pretending to be ordinary members of the public when they are in fact political activists?
Some more evidence here.
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/thetorydiary/2009/11/grassroots-satisfaction-with-cameron-dips-to-80.html
181. Bollox. All Cameron had to do was try something like “we Tories will renegotiate our relationship with Brussels, and within our first term off office we will allow voters a say on this relationship”.
What are these devastating questions the media can then come back with? “What will this referendum be on”? Well, that depends what we can achieve in our discussions. End of argument. The main thing is: we Tories will give you a say on Europe. No other party can do that.
It would have been politically AND electorally advantageous for Cameron to do this: he would have placated all his sceptic MPs. He would have got the media onside. He would have alienated maybe 3 unpleasant people, and he would have looked noble, democratic and principled next to the rotten referendum-denying Labourites and the treacherous LDs.
Instead he chose to go for the devious route, some meaningless sovereignty act, blah blah. He’s lost a chunk of support thereby, and damaged his image.
It was an error.
214 - Didn’t lots of people argue that Resolution 1441 actually weakened the subsequent legal case?
Ming Campbell even made a speech in Parliament prior to 1441 saying that military action would be clearly legal, but wrong. 1441 gave him a loophole to claim that further approval was subsequently needed and get the LibDems off a hook.
216. I personally find that very hard to believe. Why only this morning I awoke filled with a new sense of faith in Gordon Brown after his confident handling of the nation’s finances.
Yours,
Mr. E. Balls Esq.
210
It’s what pbc does. After a couple of comments we all turn into Malcolm Tuckers
Gabble, that wording “a reasonable case can be made” is very telling. If it was a case that Lord Goldsmith agreed with, he would have used different words. And don’t you think that a Prime Minister who is furious because he wants to do something that he is advised is illegal deserves everything that he gets?
204 - i agree with that. There may be a couple of opportunities ahead in situations where unanimity is needed - eg the next budget settlement or any crisis measures the EU may need to take to rescue some of the marginal Euro countries in a few years (say Spain, Italy, Greece or Ireland). A shopping list of opt outs and a ruthless determination to concede nothing unless they are granted is a perfectly plausible strategy
166 - Ha ha ha, another Nokia bites the dust
No way on earth Labour will be forming Governemnt post election.
“A reasonable case could be made” that the RSPCA were entitled to retain the estate of Dr. Christine Gill’s mother, but the Court ruled otherwise.
Public international law is so nebulous that a “reasonable case” can be made for almost any proposed course of action.
The headline of the day.
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/top-stories/2009/11/29/boris-deputy-i-had-sex-with-a-chinese-spy-115875-21858512/
Gotta be.
223 It’s a very plausible strategy, but I have my doubts that the Conservative leadership want to pursue it.
#210, by PollyB November 29th, 2009 at 11:21 am
200. Indeed. I have also been impressed by the extraordinary development in susanna’s political acumen only a day after starting to post on PB.
Are you sure she is a newbie? Her name does seem to resonate between my shell-likes.
Unless mistaken, the lady-in-question has been posting long before you. It’s not nice to be spoken down to….
186 Very Interesting, wibbler.
It looks like Damian McBride, it smells like Damian McBride, it behaves like Damian McBride.
But the difference is … as James Kelley explained yesterday …
http://tinyurl.com/tinyjameskelly
… he’s a “decent guy”.
166
Those of us watching The Thick of it last night did not need that report. Malcolm Tucker himself said, “No 10 was like the break up of the Beatles, during the Fall of the Roman Empire, with Jordan breaking up with that bloke”.
212
you are wasting your time, tim never answer difficult questions, he just posts anti-tory stuff, endlessly.
He’s been claiming on here that William Hague is unpopular, when questioned on it no answer was forthcoming, because of course its untrue.
228. Fluffy thoughts: Given the explosive reaction to her post yesterday I assumed she was the shock of the new.
231 - Yes, one thing of which tim could never be accused is engaging in debate!
If susanna is an astroturfer, it’s a witty name for an astroturfer, alluding - I suppose - on the old song “susanna’s a funny old man”.
I saw a film the other day where a man’s family was brutally murdered and thanks to a plea bargain one of his assailants got a shortish prison term.
He then sawed off the legs arms and penis of one of his assailants… blew the brains out of the judge who organized the plea bargain exploded the entire firm of lawyers who defended them and despite all this the audience was still rooting for the man who had been treated unfairly!!
People have a sense of natural justice that doesn’t always accord with what is legal. Billionaire Zac Goldsmith’s tax avoidance wouldn’t even go down well in Richmond!
Maybe he is forbidden from reading other people’s posts because he would be obliged to charge for it.
233 tim does not need to engage in debate. He is so certain of the moral highground he inhabits on Mount Grauniad that what he says is law. End of.
One day, you will all come round to his view. It is a certainty.
216. Jackie Smith’s husband used to write fulsome tributes on behalf of his wife to his local paper in Redditch, it was a little while before the MSM woke up and worked out that he was also her secretary.
Jake and Nancy Mogg, sound like C&W singers.
‘Wan’ youall to give a fine Gran Ol’ Opry welcome to a brother-n-sister duo from Somerset England, yessiree its the Moggs’
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1231774/Camerons-bid-toff-Tories-backfires-candidate-tells-leader-I-like-double-barrelled-name.html
235 - So you have some sympathy with him, Roger?
239 - she favoured very plain and inconspicuous names when she used to post on here.
235 Roger, said film gets no stars in one of the papers today (Sunday Times mebbe?). Was it really that bad?? Surely, blowing up an office full of lawyers is worth one star right there!
235 Imagine if we could have natural justice as regards Gordon’s damaging our future or destroying our civil liberties, or throwing away British sovereignty, or under equipping our armed forces. There would be nothing left of the guy but a red smudge.
Surprised this hasn’t got more comment.
Then again i can see why nobody wants to mention it.
- Makes the EU look silly
- Doesn’t exactly help the cause of opponents of AGW theories.
Opponents of the EU will tend to get embarrassed by the latter. Pro AGW will tend to get embarrassed by the former.
237 Actually it is exactly the opposite, Tim is well aware that everything he believes in is riddled with holes, inconsistencies and has been proved a failure time and again, so that all he now has left is a visceral hate of Tories.
This is why he will fail as when push comes to shove Labour offer nothing but failure and deceit.
242. No stars was generous! (But I am a tofu-eating Guardian reader!)
239. ‘Cameron wants Annunziata Rees-Mogg, to change her double-barrelled name to Nancy Mogg’.
This made me LOL! I’d have thought that was the least of her problems
I missed it but apparently Our Glorious Leader gave an interview to Adam Boulton today.
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/video/Sky-News-Interview-With-Gordon-Brown-On-Afghanistan/Video/200911415478087?lpos=Latest+Video_2&lid=VIDEO_2119301_See+Full+Sky+Interview+With+Brown&videoCategory=Latest+Video
Surely if you had the choice you’d opt for “Rees” rather than “Mogg”?
As a party member in a seat where the labour majority is less than 2500 I have been following this thread with interest.
Up till Camerons about turn on Lisbon I believed (EPP withdrawal et al) that he was actually a politician who might stand by his word on Europe.
Now with his denial of democracy to the British people he looks like all the rest of the political elite.
Week in week out despite politicians assurances power is drifting from Westminster to Brussels. Camerons “we will not let matters rest” is not believed to have any chance of success by the majority of people.
A referundum by showing the peoples will would both have bound our politicans more and given them more ammunition to fight our corner.
It is disappointing to see on this thread the level of insults thrown at conservatives who are unhappy with Cameron’s new european policy most suggesting we are stupid (it seems if anything we are now getting more insults than the labour posters!). I do not believe people who support Cameron’s policy are stupid - maybe a bit naive though so don’t suggest we are.
The challenge we face is that if we have 5 more years of soverignty drift where will we be - answer rapidly heading to the united states of europe. And in this scenario my naive fellow posters it won’t matter if we have Brown or Cameron in power at Westminster as all the power would then be in Brussels!!.
So I am left hoping Cameron will change his policy on Europe before election day and grant the people of this country the referendum they deserve (and out of interest can someone tell me why it is pointless giving people the chance to express their view in a non binding referendum on the amount of european integration they want) in which case i will very happily continue to vote conservative.
If not I (like everyone who believes in this countries sovereignty) will have to take the very difficult step of strengthening the position of the one party (UKIP) who at present is prepared to really (and not pretend) fight for this countries sovereignty.
As a matter of principle I do not believe a member of one party should vote for another party so if push comes to shove on the morning of election day I will resign my party membership and in the evening I will go off and vote UKIP. Ultimately country is more important than party.
One final point Cameron might do well to consider. The Mail in particular is (probably reflecting its readers views) less than happy at present with Cameron. Maybe not for the general election but at some stage in the future if no policy change I could see the Mail switching to UKIP - does he really want to be pushing people so they have no choice but to go in this direction???
239 - Other Election hopefuls, sensing the mood at Tory HQ, have already amended their names to appear less privileged.
They’ve also been removing references to expensive schools from their websites.
It’s a bit sad really.
231. yes, that is what makes it an interesting test of whether the labour lambies can produce independent opinions without the guidance of the good shepherd tim.
I’m hearing a whole lot of silence from them …
Gordo’s family are not props
“I have got a great family and a great wife and we are a very, very strong family,” Brown said in the interview recorded in Trinidad and Tobago, where he was attending a Commonwealth summit.
“I get up in the morning and I say to Sarah “We have got to deal with all the new challenges that this day brings’. Every day brings new challenges and every day you are tested. That’s what the job is about,” he said.
“I can’t wish away the financial crisis, but I can deal with the consequences of it. I can’t wish away the fact that we are in Afghanistan with a job to do. I think we are doing the right thing,” said Brown, who faces an uphill battle to win a general election due by next June.
“No matter what criticism you get, you have to remind yourself that this is a responsibility you are discharging on behalf of the British people. Whatever criticism there is, you have got to get on with the job,” he said.
http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKTRE5AR1C220091129
246 - I do hope Darren Cameron doesn’t take his de toff programme too far though.
Remember what happened last time?
It ended up with Chris Grayling as Shadow Home Secretary.
Or, and this is a fact, “our bit of rough” as Camerons posh inner circle refer to Grayling.
179 - not sure how it can only damage the tories.
Labour has not been involved in selling this at all?
50 days t osave the world ring any bells for example?
i think a lot of people wre prepared to give cameron the benefit of the doubt, not because they liked him but because they felt it was time for a chnage, any change, and he could not be as bad as brown. brown is perceived as shonky and until europe came up as a subject then “shonky” and “cameron” could not be used in the same sentence. people have less belief now, and his toff background therefore becomes more important.
i think the support for the tories is very fragile, hence a massive revolt to ukip at the euro elections. they are not tory voters, they are eurosceptic voters who a FPTP system obliges to vote tory a sleast worst option.
if a poll question was asked.
if you knew your vote would allow UKIP to beat labour in your constituency and not be a wasted vote would you like to vote for them?
and also. if you knew voting UKIP would allow the labour to beat the tories in your constituency would you still vote for them?
i think people would vote dramatically differently, as i feel people vote to keep someone out rathe rthean putcsomeone in after all that expenses drams they corectly think that most are on the take in terms of property expenses and none of those jokers really deserve moral support.
whereas obama had a campaign based on a positive message, that veneer has gone for him as well, and that indirectly confirms to people in britain that despite all the big talk they are allessentailly the same. negativity wil be ramped up as that approach will resonate in this campaign for sure with joe and joanna average. those that do not agree, such as foreigners who have conme in for economic improvment will be seen as part of the issue. crime is an issue for many even if in SW1 and WC2 it is not pervceived that way.
i am turnout will be down across the board, perhaps not to local election level but halfway towards it, as people just do not think they are worth voting for. with expenses still a rort and further increases pending PERHAPS they are right on that score.
An observation of the DT’s/Guardian most read stories.
Climategate appears to have touched a nerve - it’s been like this for most of the week. That strikes me as rather a lot of interest in what is supposedly a niche subject area.
Telegraph
1.Climategate e-mails sweep America, may scuttle Barack Obamas Cap and Trade laws
2.The curious incident of Tiger Wood’s crash in the night-time poses puzzling questions
3.Climategate: five Aussie MPs lead the way by resigning in disgust over carbon tax
4.Simon Cowell and Louis Walsh in X Factor war of words
5.Russian bride’s revealing wedding dress is web sensation
The Guardian
1. Trapped in his own body for 23 years - the coma victim who screamed unheard
2. Michelle Obama ‘racist’ picture that is topping Google Images removed
3. Pretending the climate email leak isn’t a crisis won’t make it go away | George Monbiot
4. The former British police officer who wants to bring down Barack Obama
5. Gang ‘killed victims to extract their fat’
If we are doing ancedotal evidence - someone found a UKIPer in the bar at the Yorks Conference muttering.
When it was put to him that the next election was going to be between keeping Gordon and having Dave - he exploded at the thought of Gordon staying and declared he would certainly vote Tory at the next GE and bought our chaps a bottle of wine.
The straight choice message it still muddled.
It won’t be by polling day.
Ironically, the closer the polls are, the less muddled it will be.
If there’s a mod out there - post is trapped.
Thanks!
I do hope William will become, ‘Bill Mogg’totally changes your view of him, ‘Bill Mogg’ brilliant.
Try thinking of, James Bond’ as, ‘Jim Bond’ or ‘Jimbo’ doesn’t have quite the same ring.
200 - she was posting gone midnight last night bless her.
246 - It does show you how far ahead of the game Osborne is though.
Just imagine how daft “Gideon’s gone to Iceland” would have sounded.
We’re All In This Together sounds so much better from a George.
Andrew Rawnsley :
“Promising to slash inheritance tax once looked like a brilliant coup for the Tories. Now it’s an albatross around their necks”
“The beauty of it for Labour as an issue is that it also raises question marks over David Cameron’s sincerity and consistency. In recent speeches, the Tory leader has deplored the gap between rich and poor and committed himself to narrowing inequality. He is in trouble trying to reconcile those pieties towards the poor when one of his few tax pledges is to hand more money to the rich.”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/nov/29/tories-inheritance-tax-gordon-brown
259 - Yes i’m sure it was his future political career that inspired him to reject his first given name. Nothing to do with it being a cr*p name.
256 I think sanity will return come polling day too. Antifrank made a witty observation about Jehovah’s Witness UKIP-types.
I don’t think that the EU issue would ever go away no matter what Cameron did, other than give them what they want. They’re toddlers crying for a toy.
I’d like to see more of what the Tories have planned - but understand that now is not the time to interrupt Gordon making mistakes without any help from the Tories.
226 - so many to choose from coldie. But surely this one trumps all?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1231746/Secret-letter-reveal-new-Blair-war-lies.html
259. I must say that I too am ahead of the game:
“Sanderson Rupert Forbes-Rentool” sounds a bit too OTT for a Labourite, no?
On a completely unrelated matter, I’ve just noticed from UK Polling Report that the Libertarian Party are standing here in Ealing Central and Acton. Might they take enough right of centre votes along with UKIP to keep the seat red?
260 - Now who could possibly have seen that coming.
265 Well if we get more than NN that’d be progress
A whole 36 votes - a whole 0.1%
Perhaps a 100% swing is possible!
260. Gabble: A very interesting point. And here’s a related one: what were the socialist/labour principles underlying the changes to IHT made by Brown and Darling in October 2007?
265 - Ah yes, Andrew Rawnsley, that beacon of right-wingery and impartiality….! Did you read the most recommended comments?
“Not that anyone outside the Westminster Village thinks this is an issue but anyone who believes in high death taxes would be highly unlikely to vote Tory anyhow”
“Still see Labour are peddling the 3000 families lie, any four bed plus property in any leafy suburb of London will push families well into death duties”
“Inheritance tax raises two fifths of bugger-all, and anyway it is an entirely optional tax for those who can be bothered to arrange their affairs suitably”
“Christ - the sheer rank loathsomeness of the Labour Party never ceases to amaze me. People are already taxed on their income, and on their consumption - the idea that it is fair for the State to exploit a death to steal another 40% from that before it can be passed on to the family is sickening”
Keep plugging Tim, it’s working wonders.
267. Constan Trader
Equality within marriage and civil partnerships.
“Mr Darling stopped short of raising the threshold to £1million because he claimed this would only benefit some of the country’s richest families and force him to cut spending on schools and hospitals.”
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-486691/Labour-steals-Tories-thunder-doubling-inheritance-tax-threshold-couples.html#ixzz0YFdnXwUw
Can anyone explain to me how the worst 12 hospitals can be passed as good or excellent by health watchdog?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1231818/Good-hospitals-failing-safety-standards-high-mortality-rates.html
As I posted the other day, 2 years back I was advised strongly not to allow myself to be admitted to Basildon hospital. So people knew its issues back then but the watchdog thought it was ok?
I come on to this site for ten minutes before my son requisitions the computer again and I see Tim, Gabble and Coldstone all posting within the last ten minutes.
Are they real ? Do they eat or sleep, or have contact with the real world or have any other interests apart from PB ? Or are they each three people working in shifts for The Labour Party ?
268 Absolutuely. Arguing against a tax cut is not going to be the boon to Labour that Rawnsley thinks it is,especially with the hammer coming down hard this April.
While Europe will lose the Tories votes amongst their core supporters don’t forget that issues like the Tories lack of support for new grammar schools/assisted places and for cutting the new top rate will also tempt those voters to UKIP who take a more conservative line on all 3 issues. I doubt that it will make much difference in the marginals but in the safe seats where those voters know that a protest vote will not elect a Lib/Lab MP it could impact on the national Tory vote share. Remember Lord Pearson, a middle-aged white public school, non-university educated white male and former businessman has far more in common with such Tory voters than the younger, ex-PR man Cameron!
95. OGH
“Maybe you should have looked at the PH Marginals poll before offering the bet Sean. This showed that only St Austell and Newquay of the LDs Cornish seats, would be taken by the Tories.”
The marginals poll was deeply flawed in particular when it came to the LibDems.
It did after all predict Eastleigh to be a Conservative gain.
I suspect SeanT’s personal Cornish annecdotals might be of more merit than the marginals poll, they are at least confirmed by the actual votes in the local elections which saw the Conservatives ahead of the LibDems in 5 of the 6 Cornish seats.
265 - Are you saying that me owning a three bedroom semi, some savings and some shares makes me wealthy? As if you are do you know how stupid you look with your & Labour’s pathetic obsession over IHT.
I see that the very Rag referred to by Mike in 29 above has a rather interesting editorial about the apparent developing police practice of taking DNA samples from all and sundry, and retaining them. Good article. V.E.R.Y. scary, to me.
http://www.bedfordshire-news.co.uk/bedsonsunday-columns-stevelowe/DisplayArticle.asp?ID=467328
268. SimonStClare
“Some 61 per cent of marginal voters say the Tory plan to raise the inheritance tax threshold to £1million shows they “mainly want to help the rich, not ordinary people”.”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/6673177/Poll-Tories-advance-on-key-Labour-strongholds.html
268 - Actually your post reminded me of how IHT affected some friends of mine.
Solidly working class, grew up in London. Parents died leaving them a little house which attracted the tax.
These people who lost out….. male unemployed, female cleaning houses of rich people for a living.
Hardly millionaires.
Sadly, he is still unemployed and they may lose their house shortly.
275. John: “Are you saying that me owning a three bedroom semi, some savings and some shares makes me wealthy?”
Yes.
PB - Why bother, it’s become the Tim and Gabble Show !
Everytime I drop in to read the comments on this site, which is becoming a less common event. I see the endless comments from Tim and Gabble re. IHT… How boring they are making this site… What a pair of sad lonely individuals they are!
re 277. That sounds like a leading question Gabble.
277 - Why are the Tory’s ahead of Labour in these key seats if it is such a bug issue. Is it not time to admit defeat if this is the case?
The humourlessness of our media reporting continues to amaze me - Cameron joshes Ms Rees-Mogg and our prim faced media report it in alll seriousness as a political story.
Amused myself during Marr’s paper review playing timbingo on the latest “issues”; Mariella didn’t smuggle IHT through but did manage to get in Season’s Greetings, Zac Goldsmith, how wonderful Sarah Brown is and that Mr Brown was so good in international negotiations (getting a group of mainly developing countries to agree to a fund of £10bn to subsidise developing countries).
281. Mike
There may have been other ‘leading’ choices. I haven’t seen the detail.
251. Scott P.
That’s great, that,
“I get up in the morning and I say to Sarah “We have got to deal with all the new challenges that this day brings’.
Not, “Would you like some tea? “, but that.
It’s so bizarre, it’s probably true.
Another story that refuses to go away
“http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1231775/Royal-Marines-rescued-pirate-hostages-order-attack-came.html”
truth really is an alien concept to these people
284, Sarah? Surely Female Colleague Number One?
Test - is timbingo a banned word?
Cameron would be ill served by having to placate the UKIP tendency whilst in government, he needs to make sure that he gains power without them and that he has enough MPs to override anyone who turns out to be any Winterton replacing headbanger.
As such he would be best served by a largish majority gained from appealing to the centre or, even, a minority government where his wilder fringe were smothered by needing to gain support from other parties.
People get turned off when they see the sort of rhetoric being employed by the right on things like Europe (and latterly green issues, which could really destroy Cameron’s chances if he doesn’t come out strongly against them soon).
The only time I would conceivably vote for Ann Milton this time is if I saw that Cameron was heading for a small majority, Milton is a Cameron loyalist and I would prefer her to be there to balance the hard right who might make Cameron’s life a misery otherwise. It’s only one vote but, in Guildford, I actually can conceivably make a difference.
Not a fast news day, so may be worth knowing that Alonso won’t be able to play in a Ferrari until February, because he’s technically still employed by Renault. May give Massa an advantage (marginal, if at all, I suspect).
I wonder when the first testing is?
On the polling above it’s also amusing but not unexpected that the UKIP tendency are generally a bunch of grumpy old men.
290.ukpaul
Yes a bit like Clarkson grumpy right wing, anti europe, petrol heads,dont believe Camerons green climate change agenda, but all the same very popular with many.
287 Ted - LOL at ‘timbingo’. Sheer genius. Did you make that up yourself or was it a rip-off ?
If the former then we are not worthy. You should be offering your services to Private Eye. The Algonquin must be bemoaning your loss to pb.com.
BTW. I know what happened. You got a post caught in the spam trap.
Am I right ?
291 - They may be grumpy, but their views on Europe, new grammar schools etc resonate with a lot of people with traditional views!
Thanks to David Herdson for another fine article.
Yes, I think he has a point and if anything can explain the modest tory drift, it is this. It is of course most relevant to Tory/LibDem marginals, any leakage of votes of votes to UKIP could be decisive.
There aren’t that many such seats but I notice a voucher in my pocket signed by one Marquee Mark. It gives me 6/4 about the LDs in Solihull.
The voucher feels a little warmer this morning.
293, what’s wrong with grumpiness? There are few things more irritating than someone relentlessly happy.
121 - I’m afraid posts like that (about BBC and climate - I refuse to add a -gate on…) make me realise that the anti camp are also not being straight with us. I have looked elsewhere and found the reasons why this was not the case.
I have spotted numerous lies from this side and, with the omissions from the other, I have concluded that they are all liars and anyone who claims to believe one of them is also a liar (that is, if they are not irredeemably stupid and/or pumped up to the eyeballs with their own ideological righteousness as many appear to be).
294 PtP. If I were you I would be looking at the wood rather than the trees where Lib Dem Seats are involved.
There have been huge movements on the markets which have gone totally unremarked.
269. Hurray, an answer!
Not of course a very good one, because I don’t see what is being equalised with what nor why the change was not made in a budget. And you have to wonder about a government which abolishes the 10p tax band but favours a family like the one in your link, who”estimate that the combination of their property investments and the family home will be around the £700,000 threshold due to come into force in 2010.”
And a good quote:
Nigel May at MacIntyre Hudson said: ‘The Chancellor has done some wonderful arithmetic here by adding together two allowances that already exist and passing it off as doubling the allowance.’
Did any one notice who Brown was kissing out in Trinidad and Tobago?
The one and only Mrs G Kinnock, why is she ot there?
291 - But Clarkson is ‘funny grumpy’ not ‘irritating grumpy’!
The grumpy traditionialists were the ones who didn’t want Margaret Thatcher as leader. The new Thatcherite coalition won over white van man. He does not want a return of grammar schools: he wants discipline in the comprehensives. Similarly he wants an efficient NHS. He doesn’t really care about Europe - a few Eurosceptic noises will do.He couldn’t care less if the constituents in converted barns are losing a bit of their power in picking the candidates. If Cameron manages to convince that the NHS is safe with the Tories, I reckon they will be home and dry.
As a little Englander am I better off with an incompetent Labour government who will not implement EU directives very quickly or properly or a Conservative government who will.
Maybe a tactical vote for a hung parliament would be best.
296. So pretty much everyone is stupid, except you. What a lonely life you must lead.
Two points: a) calling other people stupid is itself a reliable indicator of stupidity. Intelligent people regard intelligence as something to be quietly grateful for.
b) george monbiot for all his faults is very very intelligent and very very well informed about climate change science. If he regards the leaked data as extremely damaging to his case, it probably is. Stop digging.
Gordon Brown has told the BBC that Pakistan must do more to “break” al-Qaeda and find Osama Bin Laden.
Questions must be asked about why nobody had been able “to spot or detain or get close to” the al-Qaeda leader, the prime minister said.
I expect he has a shop down in the East End Gordon.
What a joke we have been unable to find him so Gordon wants to push the job onto Pakistan.
294 …And on a related matter….
I see young Zac Goldsmith has attracted some unwanted publicity regarding his tax status.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6936364.ece
As a former and still very occasional tax advisor I found this especially interesting.
It comes as a surprise to me to learn that somebody with such obvious connections to the UK can claim non-domicile status. Nevertheless I regard that as a matter between him and HMRC and if he can get away with it, good luck to him. He has no more obligation than I do to pay more tax than the law requires.
I note also that he intends to give up this status presently. Hmmmm…not sure how ‘voluntary’ that would be since I should say it would be very difficult, though not entirely impossible, to reconcile non-dom status with the role of an MP, or even a PPC. Maybe he’s not that fazed about it anyway. I suspect that the ‘privileged’ status doesn’t actualy save him that much tax, since he is fairly evidently UK tax resident and therefore pays tax on all his UK based income and remittances to the UK from foreign source profits.
So not much to this story really, except that it will likely go down like a lead balloon amongst the good voters of Richmond Park, who are no doubt prey to all the usual misapprehensions about ‘non-doms’.
You’d almost feel sorry for Young Zac, unless like me you hold a voucher showing the 5/4 you took about the fragrant Susan Kramer to beat Cameron’s adviser on matters green at the forthcoming GE.
That’s another voucher got a little warmer this morning.
If Labour think banging on about the Tories and Inheritance Tax will win them droves of new votes then there are sadly deluded. Most younger people I know seem instinctively to realise taxing the “wealthy” will not make an iota of difference to their situation. They might even think they will personally benefit from an inheritance at some point. They will simply register the fact Labour want to tax more and Tories less even though it might be largely academic because the value of the inheritance is below the threshold.
Times have changed and the old socialist notion that by robbing the rich you somehow make the poor wealthier has been discredited because it patently doesn’t work. Yes the old style heavily unionised working man in his council house who spent his working life lapping up the politics of envy propagated by Jack Jones, Hugh Scanlon and their ilk might mutter into their beer but they are a literally dying force.
299 rather.
Numbering’s a bit out this morning.
My previous post should now refer to 297.
Swiss exit polls: ban on minaret construction in Switzerland upheld.
Were there betting markets on this?
Link http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/8385069.stm
Why does Gordon Brown want poor people to pay inheritance tax?
271 - Tub
The impression I get is that Tim, Gabble and Coldstone are teams working at the direction of the Labour Party’s propaganda folk. Whether there is a member of each team who does most of the wotk and whose prose style sets the pattern or whether there is central direction and a ‘template’ to follow, it’s hard to guess. There are too many posts for anybody with a living to earn and a life to live to do it all single handed. I may be wrong but Roger looks to me more like an individual than a team.
This is not, in itself, a criticism of their arguments though they do bang on a bit and tend to ignore posts which contradict the points of view they offer. I well remember Tim being given an editorial slot a while back and producing a really excellent contribution, though the only other things I can remember about it now are that it looked ‘official’ and I didn’t feel convinced by it.
However much majority opinion here may be against them they are a good deal more sensible than some of the people who post on ConservativeHome or Coffee House
So this is why Dave met Simon last week !!!!!
Cowell has reportedly expressed an interest in staging a political debate between Gordon Brown and David Cameron, in the style of The X Factor.
The X Factor judge has said that he would make the debate “fun” with music and “loads of spotlights”.
He told GQ: “Like the presidential debates in America. I’d like to produce that here. I would! Just for the hell of it! Make it a bit more fun.
“Like we have on The X Factor. Down the steps, and some music and loads of spotlights.”
On his future projects Cowell stated:
“I never talk about them in advance, for obvious reasons. But there are a couple of things coming up. One of them non-music related that probably excites me more than anything I’ve ever done,” he said.
314 For ‘wotk’ read ‘work’. And as far as Coffee House is concerned I think some of the editorial contributors could learn a bit from OGH.
300 Thank you URW, but I have noticed that the LD wood has been creeping forward of late, and is now located roughly where I thought it should have been long ago!
Forgive my preoccupation woth Solihull. Marquee Mark and I are enjoying a small difference of opinion. It’s personal.
305 - Not stupid, a liar. They are lying knowingly. The scientists lied, those who are attacking them are lying. There may be some who brainlessly just pass on what they say without thinking about it but they aren’t at the crux of this.
We need a proper debate not the sort of ideological willy waving that we have now.
304 - White van man may want discipline in schools and may support vouchers and more choice but he would also certainly at least support parents having the chance to open new grammars if they want (at the moment they are only allowed to ballot to shut them). His views on Europe tend to be pretty sceptical at the very least and as for the Environment, well as a van driver his views are far more likely to be closer to Clarkson’s than Zac Goldsmith’s! As the news on Basildon shows it is not a matter of keeping the NHS ’safe’ it is in radical need of reform!
315 PtP. In view of the fact that LD has been ‘creeping forward’ I am prepared to offer 2-1 that they will not obtain 65 Seats at the next GE and buy the first round, shouldst we ever meet.
65+ you win, 64- I win. Any amount available.
301. Contan Trader
The Labour IHT proposals ensure that the allowance from both partners is passed on in their estate.
318 Greedy sod! Haven’t I given you enough value already?!
No thanks. My LD portfolio floweth over already. Try another mug.
302 - Think her ministerial responsibilities cover the Commonwealth.
DRS (a Swiss TV channel) says that 59% of people voted for the minaret ban according to al-Jazeera
http://english.aljazeera.net/news/europe/2009/11/2009112912250816889.html
* Bettin Post *
Shadsy’s horse, Roisin’s Prince, is running in the 1.45 at Leicester. He reckons it will win. So too do many others, judging by the price - 5/4 against.
Since we can safely assume that most of Ladbroke’s have lumped on the beast already, I shouldn’t think there is much value left, but I thought I ought to pass the information on.
And of course, if it loses, we can always give him a hard time when he next posts.
311-Good news then! When are we going to get a vote? I recall NPMP being all in favour of referendums…in Switzerland. Why not in the UK?
In any case, doesn’t the Lisbon Constitution allow for Euro-referendums if they collect 1m signatures? Hopefully NGMEP or one of his counterparts can start a similar campaign.
Also, I thought polls said it was going to get rejected about 60/40? Another case of the “extreme” right always underpolling in opinion polls? In that case the BNP vote amy be larger than we thought.
320 PtP. Serious now. How on earth do you and others manage to get your bets on ?
A friend of mine just tried to get an £80 bet on, to be offered a mere £1.
I just asked for a similar £80 bet to be offered £25.
People who like to rubbish Betfair should note that the most fearless bookie in the land stands up there and he will never cut you back.
32 7Peter2′
And the ban on minarets will accomplish what, exactly?
It seems highly counterproductive and frankly pretty stupid to me.
Nevertheless, the people of Switzerland seem to have spoken.
297 “but I notice a voucher in my pocket signed by one Marquee Mark.”
Buried beneath the dried moths?
Meanwhile, an opinion poll on Thursday showed that 51% of those questioned would reject the proposed ban.
Nearly 35% of the respondents supported the ban, according to the poll in the Tages-Anzeiger newspaper.
The errant poll…
More drip, drip, drip, on Labours illegal war in Iraq
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/6680354/Iraq-report-Pathetic-radio-failings-put-troops-at-risk.html
“They serve with ‘one of the most advanced Armed Forces in the world’, but a leaked report reveals how ‘pathetic’ radio failings put troops at risk in battle. Andrew Gilligan reports.
The language of secret military reports is nearly always dry, terse, and filled with jargon. Not this one. “This is disgraceful,” it said “and if known to a wider audience, would cause serious questions to be asked as to the reason that such a pathetic situation pertains in the 21st century for one of the most advanced Armed Forces in the world.”
” although their camp was “mortared every night”, they were “without hardened accommodation,” he said. At night soldiers slept in unprotected tents, portable cabins and buildings, lying there hoping the insurgent mortars would not hit them.”
Lets not of course forget the fact they were sent to war without even adequate pain relief (morphine) being available.
#142 Fluffy Thoughts
I’m not entirely sure where you think either (a) a high speed rail link, or (b) company law fit under the three headings; “foreign affairs”, “defence” and “monetary policy”. (To be completely honest with you, I really don’t want London dictating Scotland’s foreign affairs, defence or monetary policy, but am happy to reach a compromise to allow Unionists to maintain their pretendy wee Union world, whilst the rest of us get on with making the major decisions over our affairs).
The decisions over transport, trade and business law would be under the jurisdiction of the individual national parliaments. And why would anyone in their right mind want to get to southern England very quickly anyway
BBC man ignored Climategate e mails
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1231763/BBC-weatherman-ignored-leaked-climate-row-emails.html
Why stupid?
Unless you mean why the ban was on minarets and not mosques.
#127 The Oncoming Storm
“a cut of the oil revenue”
Oh really, would he? He’s so kind that nice Mr Cameron letting us benefit from some of our own resources. It will ensure us Jockinese peasants will be ever so greatful to the nice Mr Cameron looking after us, after all we’ve had 300 years of Westminster messing up our country, what’s another 300 more?
Ptp - as one of the “Supasix” I noticed you were tipping Cambridge to turn Dark Blue. Would you care to expand on the reasoning behind this?
322 Yes I know. It always was anyway for people bright enough to make a will. So the measure is intended to benefit people who are all three of married, well off and stupid, and the only inequality it addresses is the fact that people tend to die at different times. Pure essence of socialism.
330 And wrapped up in a white fiver, PfP.
Don’t blame Cameron for something he might do. The solution is in your hands. Just vote for independence and save the rest of us another 5 years of whining. [Copy to Australian republicans]
335 Peter2′
What exactly does a ban on minarets accomplish?
337 10/1, Goupillon. That and the popular incumbent is standing down.
338.
Oh dear!
Constan Treader 13:22
“calling other people stupid is itself a reliable indicator of stupidity.”
Constan Treader 13:56
“So the measure is intended to benefit people who are all three of married, well off and stupid,…”
341
You can see the mountains more clearly ?
URW
Most of my constituency bets are pretty small - in the £20/£40 range. Even so I do get knocked back quite a bit.
If the Betfair markets were stronger, naturally I’d use them, but the Site does little to promote them and it’s a pretty useless medium for anything other than the biggest events.
My biggest GE positions are with SPIN who are pretty accommodating, though they do occasionally suspend the markets without good cause.
A colleague of mine on a school trip to Switzerland once convinced a pupil that a Swiss chalet they were passing was the home of boss of Toblerone.
Here’s a live canton by canton breakdown of the minaret vote
http://www.nzz.ch/abstimmung_november_2009_1.4067823.html
297 I still have supreme confidence in the good folk of Solihull to do the right thing and make me £40 richer…
347 I think Switzerland is lovely - spent a lot of time in Neuchatel/Interlaken through work about 15yrs ago and still can hear those cow bells/spring melt waterfalls
If Goldsmith is to give up his non-dom status next year, this will be presumably with effect from the new tax year starting April; by which time the General Election may have been called. In the meantime expect four month’s worth of Richmond Park Foci reminding readers of their Conservative candidates tax status.
342. Peter - sorry but is David Howarth’s personal vote worth that much?
2005 result:
David Howarth, Liberal Democrat 19,152 43.9%
Anne Campbell, Labour 14,813 34.0%
Ian Lyon, Conservative 7,193 16.5%
Martin Lucas-Smith, Green Party 1,245 2.9%
Helene Davies, UK Independence Party 596 1.4%
Tom Woodcock, Respect - the Unity Coalition 477 1.1%
Suzon Forscey-Moore, Independent 60 0.1%
Graham Wilkinson, Independent 60 0.1%
341-You are right. It accomplishes nothing in the short term. By the Swiss showing that they are uncomfortable with alien cultures, Muslim immigrants will now bypass Switzerland and make their way to the UK instead. Guess the odds of another London 7/7 have gone up a tiny bit. (ps-I can guarantee you the perpetrators will not be Swedish nuns, or even anti-abortionist “extremists”).
But fear not, on the BBC we were reassuringly told that the usual suspects will try to overturn the result in some court or another. I wonder if the same tactics had been used had there been any sort of Euro-referendum. Probably.
349 You trust Brummies? Tut, tut, tut….
That Swiss vote is disgusting.
Mail picks up on Zac.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1231847/Zac-Goldsmith-Calls-David-Camerons-green-adviser-step-non-dom-tax-status.html
Photo with cabbages, hmmm what can that mean.
An interesting article showing that women seem to have voted to ban minarets in far higher numbers than men
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/europe/article6936267.ece
Gabble, try asking instead whether only millionaires should pay some form of death duties.
Then you might understand why the Tories’ Dead Millionaires Tax is so popular…
352 Probably not, Goupillion, but at tens I thought it was worth a bit of speculation. Of course since I placed the bet, the gap between the Tories and LDs has shrunk a bit, so it doesn’t look like one of my better investments now, but that’s showbiz.
358 CCHQ has been rather weak in defending IHT, they need to up their came and stamp on the 2000 wealthiest families spin and the IHT smears propagated by tim
aargh came=game
342 I don’t doubt the Lib Dems will miss the usual first term re-election bonus and there’ll be an element of tactical unwind and national swing but coming from 3rd with 16% is a mighty ask for victory. The Lib Dems will squeeze Labour’s vote massively as well. The Tories could well take 2nd but a win would be astonishing.
359 Peter, I think at tens it is a good shot. It is in my handful of candidates for a real eye-popping “what the….” result come the big day. For one reason, it is a seat where the contrast between Howard in 2005 and Cameron in 2010 is likely to be most rewarded.
363 A strong 2nd must be quite likely as Labour collapse but see 362. Nevertheless at those odds worth a flutter.
Ptp - I have just checked and noticed you have tipped Hampstead and Kilburn going blue as well! Glenda Jackson is the incumbent and this seat is a 3 way marginal but IMO the boundary changes for 2010 significantly favour the LDs. I am impressed by the LD candidate Ed Fordham and I am confident he will be successful.
360 Agree - they need to undertake a rebranding exercise of the policy in the manifesto. IHT is a genuinely hated tax and major reform will be popular. I suspect, more so in LibDem/Con seats.
Yes to thread question - not just about Lisbon directly but about perception of whether there’s any real difference between the different wings of the political class apart from the colour of their ties.
Cameron needs to pick something to show he’s not Blue New Labour but in an area that al Beeb can’t use to drive soft Tories back to the LDs.
The sort of thing might be Iraq, not the decision to invade itself as el Torees supported that, but the lack of a plan for the occupation. Apparently that’s against Geneva conventions or something and strictly speaking it’s the complete cock-up made of the post war occupation that led to the civil war mixed in with insurgency that got so many innocent people killed. That wouldn’t have happened if there’d been no invasion as well but there’s a crack there where you could put a wedge in.
Point being the main reason there was no plan for after the invasion was the same as why they couldn’t give the MoD enough advance warning to plan it properly - because they lied about when they decided to invade. Because they lied about that they wanted to make sure there was no paper trail from before the date they pretended they’d decided on.
Lot of dead peeps because of that.
Not sure that is suitable but basically he wants *some* clear blue water to show he’s not just political class from the same half dozen postcodes inside the London media bubble but with a blue tie cos that makes all the difference.
Apologies if already posted:
YouGov / Citizenship Foundation Survey Results
Sample Size: 3,994 14 - 25 year olds
Fieldwork: 18th - 25th November 2009
Which, if any, of the following political parties would you say that you like the MOST?
Conservatives 23
Labour 18
Liberal Democrats 18
Scottish National Party (SNP) / Plaid Cymru 3
Another party 9
Not applicable – I do not like any of the political parties 13
Don’t know 16
http://www.yougov.co.uk/extranets/ygarchives/content/pdf/Citizenship_TOPLINES.pdf
Why are the Conservatives drifting in the polls.
As a Conservative leaning voter,not a member of any Party, and old enough to remember first voting in the 1960s, I can find my won feelings - which clearly want Labour out- cooling towards the Conservatives. Easy to analyse:
Economically the Conservatives keep changing their minds. They clearly don’t have a fixed view but a pragmatic one -that’s OK - but equally they give the impression of being at the mercy of events and not ahead of them. And I find Osborne rather offputting as a speaker.
I don’t care much about the EC.. nor whom the Conservatives ally with in Europe - BUT William Hague on TV is a BIG turnoff. He reminds me of his picture when he addressed the Conservative Conference at 14 or 17 … and he still seems the same.
I like Clarke but he’s even older than I am.. (so past it).. and the rest are apparent lightweights or geeks - except Hammond who appears human.
Flips flops on Europe - and “cast iron” promises which are not don’t worry me (they are politicians so untrustworthy by definition) but it just is so early to start breaking promises before even in power so what happens when in power.
To sum up. Labour are untrustworthy and worn out. The Conservatives are fresh and full of ideas - some good some bad- but appear they are going to be just as untrustworthy.
Labour Ministers are either creeps or incompetent or both. The Conservatives have some Shadow Ministers who are geeks or incompetent or both.
So what is the difference? Not a lot. I trust none of them.
My faith in politicians and the political process will be renewed when some start going to jail for stealing OUR money or lying to the HOC. I shall die before that happens I expect.
So I trust none of them.And therefore dislike all on principle. Not people I fell I could ever be personal friends with.
I’ve just been phoned by ICM, so I guess there is a poll on the way…
368 Gabble
Some of the responses there are absolutely fascinating; thanks.
In particular, the relative lack of trust in local police, and total lack of trust in religious figures is interesting.
UKIP could well will 2 million votes in the GE - an average of about 3,200 votes per seat.
Are you in favour of lowering the voting age to 16: Yes 31%, No 54%
Interesting also:
Which TWO or THREE of these groups do you think the Labour Party most wants
to help? (Please select up to three answer options.)
The unemployed and those on benefits 33
Immigrants and non-white Britons 25
Single parent families 22
Poor people 19
White working class people 15
“Traditional” families - married couples with children 15
Elderly people 13
Rich people 11
Young people 7
Unmarried couples with children 7
None of these 7
Don’t know 26
Which TWO or THREE of these groups do you think the Conservative Party most
wants to help? (Please select up to three answer options.)
“Traditional” families - married couples with children 48
Rich people 42
Elderly people 16
White working class people 15
Young people 9
The unemployed and those on benefits 7
Single parent families 6
Poor people 6
Immigrants and non-white Britons 5
Unmarried couples with children 4
None of these 4
Don’t know 27
371 I doubt it. In a huge number of the seats they will be self-funded individuals with limited resource to campaign. They will do reasonably well (save deposits, maybe some close to 10%) in the seats that have central UKIP candidates and are ‘targetted’ but in the hundreds of seats where they just have a willing body they will perform fairly abjectly I imagine.
Surely if Ladbrokes still have Labour+15 on the general election handicap that looks like a steal?
I don’t actually have a Ladbrokes account at the moment but I am thinking of opening one to lump on that.
365 Sorry if it appears to be pedantic, Goupillon, but these are NOT tips: they are BETS, and as such, they represent what we considered value at the time. Ideally we would have liked to have shown the odds we took but it was too complicated, so we just put up the simple grid and hoped it would spark some lively comment, which I think it did.
Hampstead was a terrifically difficult one to call, but I thought it became a lot easier once it was known Glenda was standing down. I then took the view that Labour definitely would not win and the other two must therefore be value. I opted for Blue, almost abitrarily and when Yellow drifted a bit I was able to hedge nicely. Should be a small earner for me, as long as those pesky lefties don’t show unreasonable loyalty to the remnants of the red flag.
26.”Every vote lost to Lab/Lib in marginal seats is worth at least 5 lost to UKIP is safe seats.”
alex, bang on the money there. It finally stopped raining here, it turned to snow instead at lunchtime for a change.
I have found a brothel with free wi-fi. I am now able to combine my two favourite leisure pursuits.
373. The most interesting thing is, the party that was set up to help the working classes is now perceived as the party of immigrant huggers and benefit spongers.
378 watching internet p*rn while at a brothel, however might say something about the quality of ladies on offer.
378. Makes textbook sense. Having both hands free to operate the keyboard is a distinct advantage over the alternative.
Bloody Leeds.
Why do I watch such a shower of sh1te?
Parents, huh!
355 - can I ask why you think that?
378:
It’s good capitalism: it’s a “loss leader”.
380. Make that THREE favourite leisure pursuits. I can also post comments on pb.com
277 You forgot to mention that polling puts the Conservatives ahead of Labour by 42 to 36% in those seats.
A leading question will generally get the answer that one wants.
385-And surely get an ice cold Singha or Chang?
Off Topic
Warning, after the family has finished mixing the Christmas cake ingredients together and poured into the baking tin, do not lick the whole bowl out by yourself.
I feel ill
David, why is it “disgusting” that the Swiss, in their wisdom, have decided that their culture is basically Christian and they do not like the visual, emotional and architectural intrusion of dominant Islamic symbols?
They’re not banning Islam. They are just saying they want their skyline to remain recognisably European. And good for them - if that’s what they want. Such is democracy.
I imagine a referendum against burqas would produce the same result right across Europe.
Incidentally, a friend of mine here in Bangkok lives next to a mosque. The local imam has suddenly decided to double the volume of his recorded muezzin, so, now, every few hours my friend is woken up or disturbed by some shrieking call-to-prayer at 200 decibels blasting through the neighbourhood. He has decided to move.
Remember - this is in Buddhist Thailand, not Kuala Lumpur. And Muslims wonder why they are unpopular in referendums…
377 I’m not really convinced by the maths of that.
In any case, a successful political party needs the support of its core voters *and* centrist voters to win. A problem with the Conservative Party is that at least some senior figures within it give the impression that their core voters owe them their votes, their money, and their support, but should shut up when it comes to influencing policy.
388 Lol, i’ve been doing that for 40 years - never learn.
388, 391:
I recommend chocolate chip cookie batter. It’s better than when it’s baked. You used to be able to get chocalate chip dough ice cream in some of the better ice cream parlours in the US.
Would be interesting to see the results of a similar referendum in this country….
389 I wouldn’t call it “disgusting”, but I do think it’s somewhat unreasonable.
Swiss Muslims are mostly of Bosnian origin, and not at all prone to extremism, and I think it’s a bit insensitive.
389-I think there are many reasons why Muslims are unpopular with kаffirs. This is only one of them. Think their propensity to blow themselves up is another. Also, for whatever reason they seem to have a problem with living with non-Muslim neighbours, from the Moluccas to south Thailand, to Xinjiang, through Chechnya and on to Nigeria. All have different causes but wherever there is a Muslim non-Muslim fault line there seems to be trouble and tension.
389 SeanT. Let’s ban Swiss bankers, chocolate, cuckoo clocks, numbered accounts and snow !!
Referenda doth a pillock of a nation make !!
Oopppps there goes Lisbon !!
393-NPMP is a believer in referendums (in Switzerland), perhaps he can table a motion calling for similar referendum processes in the UK.
However, we are all in love with multiculturalism so what would be the point in having a referedum with North Korean approval rates?
395. Its not the blowing themselves up we have a problem with, more the merrier, but the people that got caught up in the blast is our concern.
177.Sean, Cameron was right to take the hit now instead of later. Bottom line, he didn’t want to gift the media and the Labour party another election campaign where the focus became Europe for the Tories instead of more pressing domestics issues which are more negative for the Labour party right now.
Smart politics.
What is this carry on about Zac Goldsmith being damaged by being a non dom because of the trust fund his father organised? Smart dad sets out to look after his family when he is gone in the most tax efficient way. I cannot ever imagine having that kind of wealth and the security it brings, but then I don’t think I would vote against someone for that reason alone. Be interesting to see how the Libdems play this one, might backfire on them if they go really negative on Goldsmith personally. I wouldn’t bet the house on the Libdems winning.
396 See Meurig’s PB2 posts, Highly recommended.
40 Yes I read them, a most interesting insight.
399 His problem arises from any attempt to play up his ‘local lad’ credentials. They don’t sit comfortably with non-dom status, Christina.
402. There is a moral duty on all of us to arrange our own personal taxes in the most effective way possible. Not doing so, is not the sign of benevolence, but a sign of great stupidity.
FA cup draw on 5 live now
389. I don’t think it’s unreasonable at all. Muslims are free to practise their faith. The Swiss simply do not want this faith to dominate their city skylines. This is democracy at work.
Of course, I understand democracy is a concept loathed by many Muslims as a “kaffir” invention. Well then they are free to return to the dar al-Islam where they will not be troubled by it.
99 Christina , get real
394 - switzerland is not immune from Islamic extremism.
There have most definately been anti terror arrests in Switzerland.
399 ChristinaD. It’s simply not smart politics especially in the present economic climate for a politician to avoid tax when, to coin that phrase much loved of politicians, “hard working families” are struggling so make ends meet.
405 I’d prefer to focus on matters like ending chain migration from Pakistan and Bangladesh, and ending any form of migration from S*malia, rather than just giving them a small poke in the eye, which I think this is.
408 see 400. Re Goldsmith Richmond Park is not Bootle. It will probably matter far less than in that seat than the fact of a first term Lib Dem MP and it’s political culture which is very Liberal leaning.
396. I pray for the day when the UK has a similar plebiscitary democracy. Not least, because the political classes in this country have proved themselves to be entirely venal, morally repellent, and pitifully and rancidly inept.
We are governed by fools, shits and thieves - left and right.
Enough. Like madasafish I despise all politicians. Let the people govern themselves.
ave it where are you!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
408. And what were Darling, Hoon, Ussher, Brown, Smith and others up to with serial flipping when it came to tax, they weren’t likely to be maximising their exposure to stamp duy, and income tax?
Perhaps, UK politicans are rather fortunate that they are not required to declare how much they have paid in income tax or any other tax.
410 Punter. Not sure about that. I tend to the view that those paying 50% tax rates will be as pissed off as those on the minimum wage.
Being a nomdom might be a legal wheeze but there’s a shabby non British feel to it and I dare say the Lib Dems will be shameless/enterprizing in their use of the issue.
409. No, it’s like zero tolerance. You start with the small poke in the eye. Then they get the message.
Let’s be honest, most European people do not want to see their societies Islamicised. There are areas within some countries in western Europe - France, Denmark, the UK, Sweden - where this is happening. It will be a disaster if it is allowed to continue, because unreformed Islam is basically incompatible with modern western liberal democracy.
A clash will happen unless the process is stopped now. One way of doing this is by saying to Muslims: this is not a Muslim society, nor will it ever be - you enter with that knowledge.
By saying it now in polite referendums we avoid demagogues saying it with racist violence in 40 years time.
403 That wasn’t my point, Notme.
As I said, it’s the incongruity between non-dom status and ‘local lad’ credentials.
415, it won’t take 40 years.
After the Man-made Climate Change theory (Manbearpig) turned into a religion, there has been some interesting additions to the vocabulary.
The use of “deniers” is hilarious. What is the opposite of “denier”? Is it “Believer”?
I have never seen a mob try and enforce a theory like this before. It is quite literally bizarre.
More hilarious is watching Manbearpig Believers throwing a hissy fit when challenged.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rPdX9Sz8w4k
If Manbearpig crusaders wish to pursecute non believers, they should be careful. They are the minority.
And I dont know if I am mistaken but many of the Climate Change Clergy seem to be gay.
414 I think Jack is right - imagine Richmond pays more PAYE tax than most places in the country and the number of voters who participate in any sort of tax avoidance, never mind about a spectacular one like this, will be very few.
I imagine most LibDem PPCs would love an opponent like that. Knock on a few doors and you will still get a volley of expenses anger - depriving the taxpayer of a far smaller sum.
I imagine if Goldmsith survives the word “taxpayer” will not get much of a mention in the Tory literature there.
Lot of imagining there…
417-The reaction to any dirty bomb going off will be terrible. No amounts of platitudes by the usual suspects about the peace loving religion will assuage the thirst for revenge.
It’s a ticking bomb, unfortunnely.
415 Perhaps we could have a referendum on the growth of Islam?
When Scotland becomes an independent Labour state, they can encourage Islam, give big council houses with toilets facing away from Mecca, banning of Christmas and enforcing Eid and generally doing their best to make muslims feel at home, them we can see how successful it is.
Lefties are so, so stupid. They deserve to be crushed into the dust in the 2010 GE. The labour party will cease to exist as a party of the workers. It will become the Islamic party.
411 SeanT. Absolutely not and with knobs and minarets on a plenty.
The referendum is the last chance saloon of the emasculated nation that has finally found itself out as politically doubly incontinent.
Maggie and the Conservatives were correct on the principle of the referendum - No No No !!!
We elect our representatives to Parliament. Let them do their job and most certainly not abrogate their responsibilities …. except of course in the case of a referendum on the banning of Cornish literary sex memoirists !!
417. I was being optimistic!
There must be a level at which the proportion of Muslims within a society starts to seriously change that society, to the anger of the indigenous majority. I’d say it’s 15-20%. That fatal moment could come with a couple of decades for some European countries.
But I imagine democracy will intervene before that happens: the voters will elect hard right governments, or demand hard right laws in referendums, to prevent such a state of affairs.
This is why the first reaction against Islam has happened in Switzerland before anywhere else - it’s simply because Switzerland is the most democratic country in Europe.
416 - So what is it you object to? The fact that he legally avoids paying over hundreds of millions of pounds to the Government (as ANYONE would in his situation), or that he hasn’t had the decency to move out of the country while doing it, or that he has the audacity to stand for Parliament?
418-And I dont know if I am mistaken but many of the Climate Change Clergy seem to be gay.
Would not surprise me, they are well organised, vocal and over represented. Not believing in AGW will soon be a hate crime too.
409 Sean Fear. Do we still have chain migration from those countries?
423 A breathtaking dismissal of the USA and Ireland then. Can Referendums be misused? Certainly. Can politician act badly err yes. Broad sweeping assertions like that seem ill judged. Much the same language seemned to be used by opponents of the extension of the franchise in the 19th Century.
‘the number of voters who participate in any sort of tax avoidance… will be very few.’
That strikes me as being an incredibly naive comment. No-one putting assets in a lower earning spouse’s name, for example?
I doubt many people would admit to ‘tax avoidance’ but almost every middle class person I know is involved in it to some degree - and would be bonkers not to be.
419. i have come to the conclusion over the last few years, that it’s only the poor sods on PAYE that ever pay their full whack on tax, everybody else takes part in the very wheezes that are available to get around it.
They are people stacking shelves in Tescos, that will be paying not only a higher rate of tax, but a higher overall amount of tax, then a great many of the people they serve. You will have builders and plumbers etc driving around in range rovers costing £40,000, and running companies that turn over £250,000 and higher, paying close to no tax whatsoever.
MP’s are, classed as self employed, and not paid by PAYE either.
Whatever maybe the reason, Tory support is slipping. Local Government by-elections in November 2009:
Gains Losses
LD 5 1
Labour 2 0
Con 1 5
Ind 1 3
423. But it turns out that “our elected representatives”, Jack, are nasty, thieving, self-serving scum.
Have you not noticed? You must have missed the meeting.
375 “Surely if Ladbrokes still have Labour+15 on the general election handicap that looks like a steal?”
David - I totally agree and have been extolling the virtues of this bet since it first appeared. It is still available at the same opening price of 7/4 (as is the case with the other two parties). I just can’t see a >15% gap between the two major parties, requiring say 27% against 42% UNLESS the LibDems were to score >20%, which I have always thought unlikely since there won’t be the same degree of anti-Tory tactical voting we’ve seen in recent GEs and the LDs are ultimately likely to get squeezed imho. I’ll be surprised were there to be more than 12% max between Lab and Con and more likely around 10%, say:
Tory…….39%
Lab……..29%
LDs……..19%
Others…..13%
Btw, should Shadsy alter things, it will be the odds he changes, not the handicaps.
423-Or alternatively reminds the elected represenatives that they are just that, the elected representatives.
419 - With living there, I’d imagine Richmond-upon-Thames actually has fewer PAYE taxpayers and more self-employed, and accountant-using taxpayers, and certainly more parents setting up tax efficient trust-funds for their offspring, than most constituencies.
431, the Tories control a huge number of councils and have an army of councillors. It’s not surprising they’re slightly past their peak.
On Islam Vs the West, the big area of disagreement for me is freedom of speech. The politicians and media of the West showed themselves to be intimidated by the Muslim anger over the Danish cartoons. Channel 4 had a special discussion prog about them, the studio audience voted to show them and Jon Snow pulled an envelope out and revealed that they wouldn’t be shown anyway.
[The cartoons are humourless, incidentally].
See the Lisbon Treaty has these two items:
Citizens’ petitions to be considered by the Commission if signed by
1 million citizens.
= We will consider and then ignore. So no chance of referendusm to ban the burqa, bring back the rope (apparently capital punishment is a no no), etc.
Instead we have this:
Combating climate change.
=what a load of boolox. Has it still got the stuff about space exploration?
I really feel for Cameron with some of the nutters he has on his side. Kinnock at least had a go at his, even if he was weak and seen to be so, but if he lets them have their head Cameron is going to be destroyed. Come on Dave, screw your whatsit to the sticking post…
Anyway, been reading the always good value Bryan Appleyard in today’s Times; as usual, when you hear one thing it’s useful to find out what the opposite is.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/environment/article6931598.ece
399 Has christinad had a brain implant from Cam.com
428 Punter. Why have politicians or organized government at all if the punters are to asked every bloody issue - minarets for gods sake !!
I only hope some enterprizing Swiss architect starts designing public housing with certain faux islamic twists !!
426 peter2. Neocons are soci*lists from voreas last night and now ‘Climate Change Clergy’ are gay.
Next it’ll be Cameron is a ‘liberal Conservative’ and Nick Clegg is a born again virgin thirty times over !!
Ken Wasabi “The use of “deniers” is hilarious. What is the opposite of “denier”? Is it “Believer”?
It’s ‘rationalist’.
Now how about that for an interesting use of language - you are a crank and I am level-headed
425 I don’t, Alex!
Please see my post 308 so I can avoid retyping!
432 SeanT. It may have escaped your notice that we’re getting rid of most of them and probably a few more shortly …. or have you missed that !!
441. A rationalist changes their mind when the facts change. The facts have changed. There is very little rational about AGW.
430 Notme
It might amuse you to know that when I worked for the Inland Revenue, the two main Schedules of taxation were known as Pay As You earn, for employess, and Pay As You Like, for the self-employed!
It was a joke, but like a lot of good jokes, had a touch of truth about it.
By the way, I thought MPs were on PAYE?
436 Morris, I’m not convinced the Tories are “past their peak”.
The newsflow has favoured Labour of late, but I expect this to change dramatically over the next three months. The only positive aspect is likely to be a statistical and quite possibly temporary end to the recession, but the economy remains in terrible trouble which will become ever more evident, especially if Brown were to delay the GE until May. Hence my fancy for him plumping for March instead, where I obtained odds of 8/1 with Betfair, as recently as this week.
440 If one accepts the principle of democracy (and there are plenty of good arguments against it) I can’t see any strong argument in principle against referenda.
Countries where they take place are not noticeably worse governed than countries where they don’t.
I see it as being like belonging to a private members’ club. You elect the committee to run it - but you don’t give them the power to change the club rules as they wish.
440 There is no debate that neoconservatism started out as a movement from the left in the US. Just because you are unaware of this fact doesn’t make it any less true.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neoconservatism
Zac is running a very positive campaign in Richmond park - i dont think this news will change it - if the lib dems push it it could easily backfire -either way i still have it in my con gain from lib dem column - it could also be by quite a surprising margin . A key factor which i think people underestimate is the higher turnout - i would not be surprised to see it up 10 % and most of this will go to the Con side
these voters did not not turnout in 2005 but they have every sign of coming out in droves this time .
446, I meant only as regards council seats.
447, I also like the idea of having referenda. In particular, those which are promised in manifestos.
440 - that doesn’t make neoconservatives left wing though. In the words of the immortal Dorothy Fields - “It’s not where you start, it’s where you finish!”
446-Why would he go in March if he knows he’ll lose? For Brown it’s all or nothing. He won’t go unless he’s certain to win so he’ll run down the clock.
He’s not interested in minimising the defeat. The day after the election he’ll be gone from the leadership of the Labour Party. And No 10. So, why not just hang in there an extra 2 months?
442 - Apologies PtP. PfP/PtP problems!
Some poll news/discussion on green issues
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/5581158/the-political-case-for-environmentalism-weakens.thtml
Youth of today suffering green fatigue?
445, andrew neil was talking about it on Daily politics, that MPs are classed as self employed.
Having looked into it however, it appears i was wrong, MPs are classed as ‘office holder’ and are subject to paye.
454. which is deeply encouraging considering how much one sided propaganda young people are exposed to within schooling and the curriculum.
449 I’m sure he is, Morgan, but you seem to be the latest in a string of posters wilfully ignoring the point I was trying to make.
Here is Zac Goldsmith’s opening comment from his website.
“Welcome to my campaign website. I grew up in Ham, and have spent most of my life in this area. It was therefore a huge honour to be selected as the local Conservative Parliamentary candidate at an Open Primary in March 2007.”
Now, I don’t have a problem with him stressing his local credentials: nor do I have any problem with his non-dom status. I just point out that the awkardness of reconciling the two. His political opponents will not be slow to exploit that. As a punter, that’s relevant to my calculations in one of the more interesting betting heats.
All clear now?
451 The original ones certainly were. What I have a problem with is the left disowning neoconservatism just because it was enacted by the idiots in the Bush administration, before Iraq they probably called it ethical foreign policy.
453 Most gracious, Alex. The customary £1 fine is waived.
I was surprised too, but I suppose the cold hard reality of looking for work, paying tax and working out how to repay student loans suddenly alters priorities. Either that or teachers aren’t as effective as propagandists as they would have hoped.
451 ukpaul. But didn’t you hear George W and Dick Cheney’s fine rendition of the red flag as they waved at the massed lines of tanks up Pennsylvania Avenue on Labour Day !!
344. Fair point. The tax favours those who are simultaneously rich, married and intellectually outwith the more intellectually gifted half of the population. Which still doesn’t sound to me very socialist.
440 Jack W taking extreme examples like Switzerland and using it as the basis for an argument against any Referendums in any Country however rarely and for whatever reason doesn’t seem right anymore than saying Democracy should be abolished everywhere because politicans occasionally do not rise to their duties. That’s my only point.
431. The correct figures for Local Council by-elections during November are:
Conservatives retained 5, gained 2, lost 4 - winning 7 in the month
Labour retained none, gained 2, lost none - winning 2 in the month
Lib Dems retained 1, gained 3, lost 2 - winning 4 in the month
SNP retained 1, gained none, lost none - winning 1 in the month
Independents retained 2, gained 1, lost 2 - winning 3 in the month
460. The ultimate irony, the constant drip of propagandist multiculturalism and environmentalism into the nations children throughout their schooling has failed, because we are so crap at educating our children in general.
Bluddy brilliant.
452 More to the point it would result a needless massacre of Labour Councillors in May. That would be something an already likely shell shocked party could do without.
466, if Brown valued his party above himself he would probably have resigned midway through 2008. It’s possible that he does value his party more, but is so deluded that he thinks his presence is a help rather than a hindrance.
417 - sadly, I have to agree
455 It’s a far from academic point, Notme.
Apparently the regulations covering their expenses claim were copied from the notoriously strict Schedule E (PAYE) code, requiring the expenses to be ‘wholly, exclusively and necessarily’ incurred for business purposes. It is the ‘necessarily’ bit that is exceptionally difficult to meet. It does not apply to the Schedule D (Self-employed) code, which is why the latter is often regarded as relatively beneficial for tax purposes.
Many Schedule E (PAYE) taxpayers, which is most of us, know just how difficult it is to claim expenses successfully under the Schedule E code, yet all manner of MPs expenses crept through their similarly worded rules.
I really do hope HMRC are having a good look at this.
452
Will it be the first time in history that the 90% of the TV cameras will be at the rear of No 10?
468, much like the lack of democracy in the EU, this is something better tackled sooner, rather than a later.
461 Look you twat read the link I keep posting and learn something rather than keep on with your attempts at “humour”.
457 - But on the other hand there is nothing in that statement that his opponent’s could take issue with. He HAS lived his entire life in Ham.
I think many in the constituency will recognise the reasons why his tax affairs have been arranged as they are. Most will say that they would do the same. The whole point of the Conservatives IHT policy is to reduce the IHT burden on those who can’t afford the “fancy tax lawyers”.
In addition if he has renounced his non-dom status by next year it will be harder to make capital out of it. In fact if they try to campaign on his former status, it may draw some towards a conclusion that he is actually making a personal financial sacrifice to become an MP (whether or not that is true).
471 - Again I have to agree (and this government would not be interested in sorting out either issue).
do you see a role for your enormo Haddock in tackling this?
Alex
Domicile is a legal concept which broadly corresponds to the notion of where one’s roots are. It is very different from the tax definition of residence, which is far more technical and less subjective.
The point I am labouring to make is that it is very difficult to reconcile a statement like ‘I grew up in Ham, and have spent most of my life in the area’ with a tax status that is dependent upon him NOT having his roots in Ham, or anywhere else in the UK.
It is not impossible to reconcile the two, but definitely tricky.
Incidentally, it is exceedingly difficult to change one’s domicile status, but I think I’ve gone far enough into this interesting but highly technical area for one afternoon.
Labour guy on Beeb this morning used the term “denier” in relation to Climate change.
“50 days to save the world”
472 voreas. Thank you for elevating the discussion.
The “humour” surely lies with the “twat” who last night tried to indicate that contempaprary neocons were socialists. The honour sir lies with you !!
One of your posts - 396 from last night relates :
“Firstly Neocons are from the left of the political spectrum and frankly their doctrine isn’t a million miles from the Lib Dems and Labour’s ethical foreign policy probably just more honest about it.”
402.”399 His problem arises from any attempt to play up his ‘local lad’ credentials. They don’t sit comfortably with non-dom status, Christina.”
Peter, seriously, how so? Dad left the family a great big trust fund tucked away in the most efficient place tax wise, how does that stop Zac being local?
474, my enormo-haddock are committed to Western capitalism and freedom of speech.
476, save the world or kill it, if you enjoy eating babies.
477 - While UK Paul is correct in we have to judge the neocons by their contemporary manifestation, voreas is surely also making a reasonable proposition that several of the founding fathers (sic) hailed from the Democrats’ wing that strongly supported resistance to political tyranny. The social democratic left across the world, not least here in the trades unions upto and including the 1980s, have a very proud story to tell. There is not a little common ground between some aspects of the neocons and what might be termed ‘liberal interventionism’.
477. “The “humour” surely lies with the “twat” who last night tried to indicate that contempaprary neocons were socialists.”
That is not an unusual opinion. It is part of the thesis of Adam Curtis’ The Power of Nightmares* that many neo-cons are disciples of Leo Strauss and in essence wished to achieve liberal (socialist) aims by other means.
* Well worth watching if you haven’t seen it, it’s certainly thought provoking.
480. On a related theme - who said ‘I called the new world into being to redress the balance of the old’?
neocons
Over the last 20 or so years the left has become more anti-Israel. One strand of the whole neocon thing has been pro-Israel lefties moving nominally to the right specifically because of that issue and not because of some general change in their political view. They remain left-liberal on most other issues but right-wing on foreign policy related to the middle-east.
It’s important politically because they’re uncomfortable with most right-wing positions and so act as a pebble in the shoe of the Republicans on pretty much everything else except The War Against Terror.
It’s also where the crusade for democracy element came into it. Being ex-lefties it couldn’t just be about realpolitik - they needed a moral justification to feel better about what they were doing.
Lisbon or not, Vote anyone else but Tory and you get another 5 years of Brown
Up to you really?
Either way you still wont get a referendum and in the latter case you will also be stuck with Brown
Ne0cons are an unholy alliance of on the one hand old cold warriors looking for a dirty little war to fight to extend the influence of the West in general and the USA in particular and vampire liberals who want to liberate oppressed peoples and if that requires untold gallons of blood to be spilt, so much the better.
478 Because, Christina, the very notion of domicile is linked to your local roots. This is not a hat one can change at one’s leisure. Most people acquire their domicile at birth and it’s usually their country of birth but there are some fairly obvious exceptions - e.g. born overseas when Mum was on holiday.
Domicile is characteristically ’sticky’. Once it has been established, it generally stays, normally for life. It would certainly be rare under UK Law to change domicile more than once in one’s lifetime. I’d be pretty sure that Goldsmith (or his Dad, or his Adviser’s) would have taken some care to get his domicile established correctly in the first place. I’d be even more sure that he couldn’t just stroll along to the tad office and say ‘Ah, well I was bought up in Ham, so I should really be domiciled in the UK.’
Once it was established that he was domiciled overseas, it was always going to be difficult to change that, whatever his wishes. There must have been very good reasons why he was classed non-dom, despite the fact ‘he grew up in Ham’. The most obvious explanation is that the links with Ham, and the UK, were relatively tenuous, or at least that’s how he is likely to have presented it to the tax authorities.
Now square that with his claims to be a local lad. Tricky, no?
483. Christopher Hitchens, Nick Cohen and tim , being fine examples.
New thread - new poll!!!
439.”399 Has christinad had a brain implant from Cam.com”
Yep, that is right. it was implanted after the debate I had with JackW last week on his Against the grain article. You see, then I was wondering about whether both Jim Murphy and Alastair Darling might hang on against the Tories in their respective seats because of their high media profile!!!
I live at the other end of the country to Richmond, so don’t know it at all. But reading through the thread today, I genuinely thought people were overreacting to this news. Had this been a by election and Zac had been parachuted in at the last minute to fight the seat, I could understand this news being damaging.
But that is not the case, does he come across as a selfish hard nosed buisness man in the media, or just a trendy eco warrior?
That is quite a valid point when you are up against a Libdem in that patch I would have thought. So I was genuinely questioning the wisdom of the majority on here rather than waving my Tory knickers about!
487 Zactly Zo.
480 John O. As UK Paul indicated it’s not where you start etc ….
There must have been something in the air down voreas’s way last night because we were also treated to :
“I am going to accept that a minority of the Tory party in the past were pro capital punishment, but I think it is a caricature that is out of date today.”
You really can’t make up the first sentence !! …. but he did.
Anyway I’m off to read Chapter 3 of Voreas’s epic :
Michael Howard - Great Liberal of the 20th Century.
New thread.
Jack W November 29th, 2009 at 4:18 pm
Jack (or whoever you really are), I can normally agree with much what you write, even if it is sometimes a little flippant. However, I have to disagree most strongly with this posting.
Elected politicians (and I am one) have not served this country very well in recent decades. We have stumbled from crisis to crisis, taking corrective action only when forced to by events. Referendums have their problems (as evidenced by California), but ultimately they express the will of the people.
Politicians who pour scorn on referendums are doing the same (and with less justification) than the 19th century thinkers who opposed the universal franchise. What right have we politicians to decide that our views should take precedence over those of the people?
I think that this attitude among the political class is a major cause of the long-term decline in both electoral turnout and respect for us.
Clearly some of the small drop must be Lisbon but we would be talking about a small part of a small drop. I think the drop ( albeit small and still debatable) is another issue to do with the Cameron push being somewhat less coherent and consistent. I noticed this about a month ago and assumed he was going easy to keep Brown in place. Maybe he was but i feel it’s time to break out into a gallop as we are now close to GE time.
I said yesterday that Pearson is the beginning of the end of UKIP
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6936833.ece
The UK Independence Party (UKIP) faces a “wave of resignations” amid grassroots fury that the anti-EU party’s new leader offered to stand down candidates at the next election and disband if the Conservatives agreed to hold a referendum on EU membership.
Lord Pearson of Rannoch, winner of the ballot to replace Nigel Farage, faces a rocky start to his leadership after The Times revealed on Saturday that he proposed a deal to the Tory leader in the Lords that would have seen UKIP abandon plans to stand at the general election.
Gerard Batten, the London MEP who was runner-up for the leadership, said he was appalled by the secret plan and said that members would not have chosen Lord Pearson if they had known the full truth during the contest.
Nikki Sinclaire, MEP, who came third for the leadership, said that she was being called by angry members threatening to resign but directed her anger at Mr Farage for asking Lord Pearson to make the approach to Lord Strathclyde.
The row threatens to overshadow UKIP’s plans to reach out to disaffected Labour voters by switching its focus to include campaigning against radical Islam.
“I am appalled they can offer to sell the party down the river to the Tories — it is a betrayal of the members and we will probably see a wave of resignations over this,”
496 Many in the UK establishment are frightened of democracy - they see referendums as the voice of the mob.
To an extent they are right as referendums can impose or discriminate against minorities (even large ones 51 to 49), so in a state that uses referendums there needs to be constitutional protections put in place, that require a higher hurdle to change than simple majorities, to protect an agreed set of human rights. The UK fails currently to have such a document (the European Convention is a lowest common denominator list aimed at state rather than citizen rights)
In most countries constitutional changes require either two thirds majorities or as in USA the support of majorities of two thirds in Congress and three quarters of States.
If referenda became a normal part of UK legislation I think provision would need to be made to protect rights.