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Labour close the gap to 10 points with ComRes

November 30th, 2009


CON 37%(39)
LAB 27%(25)
LD 20%(17)
OTHERS 16% (19)

But have the seat calculators got it right?

There’s a new poll out tonight from ComRes for tomorrow’s Independent which has the Tory lead down to ten points but with the Lib Dem continuing to do well.

For the Tories another poll having them below the 40 mark might add to the jitters as we enter the run in period to the election. Only ICM of the six firms that regularly poll UK opinion has recorded a share above that mark.

The simple additive seat calculators are suggesting that this would leave Cameron just short of a majority though it has to be said that these have never been tested when there has been such a chunk of support going to others.

So we get the odd situation that if the lead had stayed exactly the same as this poll’s 10 points but with shares of C41 – L31 then the projection would be for an overall majority.

As I’ve been arguing for a few weeks I’m far from convinced that the projectors can cope with “others” in the mid-teens.

Mike Smithson