Welcome to the new confident Gordon
December 2nd, 2009
But is there a danger when’s he’s over-confident?
Anybody watching PMQs today would have seen an emboldened and confident Gordon Brown dealing with a slightly down-beat David Cameron.
Probably Brown was the winner though his continued evasiveness and what turned out to be a wrong assertion on Spain’s G20 membership might just take the gloss off it. He of all people should have known that simple fact and it came over as though he was over-egging the truth to deal with the Cameron attack.
There’s no doubt that his performance will have cheered his party. But is there a danger when Brown is over-confident? Is this when he is at his most vulnerable?
We have seen that before. Just cast your mind back to the London G20 meeting in April which was widely regarded as a triumph for Mr. Brown.
A day or so afterwards he was pressed on the growing MPs expenses story and he got his response entirely wrong. It came over that it was almost beneath him to have to deal with such minor matters - see this BBC story from time. Brown failed to get on top of the expenses issue for months and that cost him dear.
Could the same happen again? We shall see.
Mike Smithson
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1st?
I’ll give it two months and Gord will be back in one of his dark, dark moods again.
Perhaps the dosage has been adjusted?
1 - my first first! I’ve only been trying for about 4 years…
Repeated FPT
The way forward for Cameron is to talk more about Conservative policy instead of only about the failure of Labour policy.
Does the Prime Minister support a tax break for startups, to encourage job creation? Why has the Government not implemented a National Loan guarantee scheme? etc.
5. I do enjoy all the posts on here from people offering their ‘advice’ to professional politicians.
With a rating of -40+ I fail to see what he is confident about. Maybe he just looks forward to Xmas.
He has nothing to lose now so he’s coming out fighting - he’s last out of recession so there is no reputation to conserve - its just come out blazing with both guns.
I guess he’s Butch and Mandy is the Sundance Kid.
He was certainly more sound on Afghanistan now the US has settled on policy.
God knows what Cameron was going on about with his first two questions about a 2010 exit.
FPT.
Woody has spotted the difference. AC is back in the bunker and what a difference it’s making. I wonder if he’s being paid? He’s worth more than Coulson.
All those betting against a Labour majority might want to reconsider.
I think that the ‘playing fields of Eton’ line will backfire for Brown in much the same way as Blair’s ‘clunking fist’ description of him did. Just made you want to cringe.
Gordon does perform well from time to time, but there’s always something to ruin it. Today was the Spain lie, which was clearly prepared as Will Straw tried it as well.
On the broader theme, Brown repeating the Crewe and Nantwich campaign will be music to CCHQ ears.
9 Tim. Probably this:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/Afghanistan/article6936358.ece
10. Roger, we’ve been here time and time and time again. Brown has an “up” period, only to be followed by a massive “downer” It’ll all go wrong for Labour in the blink of an eye.
Brown was more confident today. I said a little while back that he was relishing the GE campaign. He thinks he was responsible for the 3rd term victory.
On IHT the Tories did say at the Conference that this was costed, but that the changes would be made to Non Doms first and the IHT cut would come once the budget deficit was under control. They need to ram home much more on the NI increase coming down the line and how they want to stop that if possible (again mentioned at the Conference) and they could clearly state now that IHT is something they want to do BUT they would not until the deficit is under control. Will the govt now match that with their cut?
9.Well, that will be down to the briefing coming out of Downing Street before the Obama announcement. I did follow this story over the last few days, and I wondered if Gordon’s troops home before Christmas line would unravel for a second time, and it did. Playing politics in this way is what he does.
6 runnymede
So according to you, no-one on a political site should have opinions on political strategy apart from “professional politicians”?
Jack W hauled me over the coals for being sceptical about the tearful Gordon, parading his personal hurt, over the Janes letter/phone call. Day after it was suddenly confident Gordon, the man who beat the Sun, and that’s continued since.
Unless Gordon acts like a normal human on TB, what he says or does in the HOC is an utter irrelevance.
In the real world, PMQs is a waste of time and space. It is also in the HOC as no real questions are answered.
In fact the HOC is also an irrelevance as the idea of reviewing legislation and holding the Executive to account is a joke.
Gordon Brown is at his most confident when dodging PM questions, using deceitfulness over Spanish G20 membership and resorting to class bigotry.
Whilst I agree with Mike’s central point, surely the key result of this PMQs will be the media running stories about whether we are the last or last-but-one G20 country to come out of recession? Not, I think, what Alastair Campbell [if he is now involved] would have been aiming for.
Brown floored Cam and the blue benches looked considereably downbeat.With the gapnarrowing in the polls I think Cameron is getting rather ‘frit’.
More confident lies about Spain being in the G20, coupled with the usual dubious tractor stats from Brown. Cameron ought to keep his questions for a proper debate on Afghanistan, not waste time at PMQs.
As for the Daily Politics, the opportunity was missed to ask John Hutton if going a state Grammar School helped him go on to Oxford.
10 ‘AC is back in the bunker and what a difference it’s making’
Alistair Campbell, the man who helped take us into a very suspect war with his editing of the dodgy dossier and reports from the JIC? It’s probably best to keep quiet about his emergence into the light.
22. Keep dreaming.
The smart move by Cameron would be to rule out the £1m IHT for the life of the next parliament on the grounds that the non-dom money will have to be used to pay down some of Labour’s deficit.
It would kill the issue and remind everyone about the debt problem.
17. Everyone’s entitled to an opinion, however laughable.
FPT
Can tim explain why Cameron’s face went green rather than red today?
Is this indicative of Cameron’s victory at PMQs or is it just that my TV set needs adjusting?
10. Campbell is good but there’s only so much polishing you can give a turd and he’s not a miracle worker. It’s clear the next few months will be more bullying, more class and IHT warfare and more Crewe and Nantwich campiagning.
The problem is for Labour, if the IHT proposal is so bad, why did they copy it and why did it lead to Brown cancelling the election?
I think the bigger story today, is the way that Brown’s Afghan targets and troop withdrawal so hyped in the media a few days ago, are now unraveling after Obama has laid out his plans.
Zac Goldsmith’s non dom status is news on the BBC and Fraser Nelson going after him.
19
TB?
7. What is his positive rating? Keep your eye on that. Very, very IMPORTANT…
-40% net would imply about 30% positive.
35% might see Labour win an overall majority.
23 dr spyn - To be fair, I expect the Spain gaffe was a mistake, not a lie.
But it’s amusing seeing how Labour now have to run around saying “Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea, Turkey, and the US may have come out of recession before the UK, but Spain hasn’t!”
UK Polling Report on the new Ipsos MORI poll showing the SNP back ahead of Labour:
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/2364
Zac’s given up his ‘non dom’ status. I’m not sure it’ll make a difference.
Frazer Nelson thinks it was ’shocking’. I think it was more an oversight but if you want a shortcut to becoming an MP those are the rules you have to play by.
This ‘Eton Mess’ toff stuff will only work if it taps into a feeling of injustice. This is both the Tory (to prevent it) and Labour challenge.
Has BBC 1 News mentioned PMQs yet?
Ladbrokes - Scottish Independence Referendum
Scottish Independence Referendum to take place before 2011: 5/1
NO Scottish Independence Referendum to take place before 2011: 1/10
Scotland to become independent of the UK before 2015: 20/1
Interesting to see with more of a spring in his step - and Cameron more circumspect. Think is blooper last week has made him a bit nervous.
Be interesting to see what soundbite comes out - the rowdy behaviour seems to be the main story.
31 - Another attack line which could have been used during the election is killed. Bad move for the Lib Dems/Labour to use it now as it would have been very bad for Cameron if it came out during the election rather then now.
Why is he wearing an Old Etonian tie?
http://www.smartturnout.co.uk/media/catalog/product/cache/2/image/5e06319eda06f020e43594a9c230972d/e/t/eton-tie_1.jpg
The class war stuff will play better than some Tories, who remain convicned that Crewe and Nantwich was the Waterloo of Class War (it wasnt!), believe but less well than Labour hopes. There is scope for a carefully crafted message that the Conservatives may talk about all being in it together but that it will be the worst off that pays for it. To some extent that is happening now, but I’m not sure Brown has the subtlety to play it right.
For all Brown’s renewed confidence, Labour is still stuck in the 20s and has been for a very long time. That said, there is a spring in Labour’s step at the moment and the Conservatives have been making silly mistakes while Cameron doesnt look as assured as usual.
I think Cameron needs to up his game: he has become lulled into thinking Brown is down and out and is repeating old lines (hence the “bet that sounded good in the bunker” line he used today against a rather good Brown hit which he has used in the past against poor Brown jibes). There is no reason why he can’t but he needs to recognise that he is in a fight once again.
36. He certainly should have sorted his status out when he decided he wanted to be an MP.
Let’s be honest, PMQ’s won’t register with anyone normal because nothing was really said. Time for Cameron to up his game though, last few weeks have been poor.
42. Any evidence for any of that?
44 perhaps cameron is waiting for the time when it is too late to change Brown before election and then pouncing?
shoudl be about 1st January?
Oops, I think there might be another scandal on the horizon:
Baroness Ashton said she had ordered the first-ever audit of CND’s accounts during her time there.
“I did not take any direct money from any communist country,” she said.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8390224.stm
44. If anything you want Labour to have a few good weeks before the PBR, it’ll be much more painful for them that way.
22
UKIP for my vote now, bye bye Dim Dave!
by R Gale November 5th, 2009 at 12:47 am
The Cameroonian cheerleaders wont be cheering for long. Six months of a Cameroon government will probbaly be enough for people to realise a Brown Government was not too bad after all.
by R Gale September 9th, 2009 at 7:39 pm
A rather pathetic lead for the Cons. During the GE campaign the Governing party tends to close the gap, I think a hung parliament is on the cards!
by R Gale October 27th, 2009 at 12:39 am
Another bunker sockpuppet. They’re getting more active.
42
If class was that important Harriet Harman wouldn’t be MP for Peckham. It’s not, so she is.
33. “35% might see Labour win an overall majority.”
and about 31.5% might see Labour as largest party, 29% probably enough for a hung parliament…
re 33. I don’t get your mathematics there Rod. You are confusing leader approval ratings with voting intention.
The latest MORI numbers, from the poll that had Labour only 6% behind, showed a negative/positive split of 59 - 34.
Can you name an PM who went on to win an election with figures anywhere near that?
Remember that in 1979 Jim Callaghan was on a net zero on this - the negatives equalled the positives.
47. ‘direct’, eh?
49. Yes quite a few whiffy refugees from the linen basket on here today.
One thing we can now rule out before the election is the Lib Dems announcing a pull out from Afghanistan.
54
Agree there. Afghan will now be decided by the next Presidential election.
OT Mumsnet are having a live webchat with Ed Miliband, Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change – this Thurs Dec 3rd, at 1.15 – 2.15pm (GMT)
Wonder how Climategate will be handled.
I think the overall narrative is moving Gordon’s way, for a couple of reasons.
The ‘hung parliament’ story definitely helps Labour. I think many people (visitors to this site excluded, natch!) do not see the range of possible election outcomes as a spectrum, but rather as five discreet positions: Tory Landslide, Tory Victory, Hung Parliament, Labour Victory, Labour Landslide.
The media had some time playing with the Tory landslide position, but are now toying with the possibility of a hung parliament. The polls have Labour at (roughly) ten points behind, but a hung parliament is being seen as a draw - or even (based on expectations of a the last few months) as a loss for the Tories and a win for Labour!
Independent of the Conservatives, this is a far better position for Labour to speak from than that of facing a landslide loss. Even better (from their point of view, not mine) it also casts doubt on the certainty of a Tory win. If this continues to be the narrative, I can imagine Labour campaigners being invigorated (and pushing to make the hung parliament happen), while Tory campaigners could become demotivated - the prospect of fighting for control of a hung parliament with the government hamstrung by the outgoing Labour government’s promises for the future.
Gordon could also be confident because the worst of the global financial mess could well be behind us. At the same level of economic misery, your mood is likely to be very different depending on whether you’re passing the point on the way down or the way up. Lord knows Gordon’s good at repeating the same point (be it true or false) over and over again, trying to make it stick. The country may be more receptive to this as we move out of recession and into Spring. I’d see GB’s task as not rocking the boat too much through the winter. He needs Spring hope to be ‘for a brighter future coming our way’, not ‘for a brighter future coming our way once that bloody Labour party are out’!
Ramble, ramble, ramble. Gotta go cause the baby’s bottles won’t clean themselves. In brief, I think this is a solid shift back towards Labour.
Cheers all!
54. agreed; major tactical error by the lib dems
Wibbler, I owe you an apology for my scurrilous suggestion you were spinning for HMG. As a regular reader (if not poster) I should have known this wasn’t/isn’t the case. I still think you were a bit apocalyptic in your criticism of Cameron (as I said, the Tories are hardly in meltdown and DC while not at his best was hardly disastrous) but I apologise for my misinterpretation of it.
Weeks of exposure of Cameron vs Brown during an election campaign will be a big test for this alleged “new Gordon” (I haven’t seen PMQs).
I doubt he can do it, his gurning and fakery is appalling to behold, whereas Cameron comes across as a normal competent bloke, much better. Also Brown will lose his temper several times, guaranteed, during a campaign.
Did he really no know whether Spain was in the G20? spanner
54 tim
And after PMQs today we can also rule out Labour promising that troop withdrawals will begin in the year of election.
Cameron’s attack may have appeared weaker for being on two fronts but he got the responses he needed for media soundbites and future campaigning.
FPT Plato Cox is indeed a luvvy with his CBE in his pocket and part of the Scottish mafia when in London. As he spends so much time in America I do wonder if he is a nonDom. Perhaps someone knows.
He also thinks of himself as a special person, of a particular elite : “I’m directly related to the progenitor of the high kings of Ireland, Niall of the Nine Hostage”, he likes to say.
He tends to be typecast as the baddie (can’t imagine why). His best film role,in my opinion, was in the last Bourne film where at the end he shot himself.
All this “PMQs doesn’t register” stuff is missing the point.
It registers to the media and sets the political mood. It needs one killer soundbite to make headlines.
Cameron needs to stop using the bunker analogy. He needs to stop with the arrogance which led to him calling Ed Balls’ constituency ultra-marginal. He needs to ask better questions than what boils down to “Why is the Prime Minister crap?”.
It is difficult to attack Brown on ‘general’ questions like “why are we the last country in the G20 still in recession”, even though they are good questions - because the answers are too easy, even if utterly intellectually incoherent.
Best of all are specifics from leaked documents. There is a mystique about leaks which gives them added credibility.
Has anyone considered that Brown might be a smarter tactician than some on here have given him credit for? He’s been i/c four successful election campaigns including the one that got him the Prime Ministership.
42. Andrew. Good post. I think you’re right - the class war angle might gain traction, but it needs to be played subtly, in the right way. Last week’s line about Cameron/ Osborne knowing personally all the IHT beneficiaries was a palpable hit. And Cameron has been noticeably less adept in recent weeks: all may not be lost - game on!
57. It seems you can replace ‘linen basket’ with ‘commercial laundry’…
57. “At the same level of economic misery, your mood is likely to be very different depending on whether you’re passing the point on the way down or the way up.”
But that’s not correct. For most people the misery will begin next year; VAT up, inflation rising, base rate going up, poor pay deals, and big tax rises after the election. Most people will be worse off next year and the year after and the year after, even as the economy grows a little.
60. That’s another reason for Brown to avoid a TV debate, he won’t be able to shout and bellow at people like he can at PMQ’s
59 tholster
No problem. I am fervently anti-Labour but I do think Brown won easily today and Cameron was below par.
I think Cameron needs to take a good week away in Christmas and come back refreshed. He looks in need of a battery recharge.
Zac Goldsmith is a Tory I’d vote against. An eco warrior who won’t pay his taxes and flies around to keep up non dom status is an laughable as Sean Connery’s campaign for an independent high-tax Scotland that he won’t pay tax in.
67. indeed, and the original theory at 57 presupposes a “V” shaped economic recovery, which is what I hope happens for the sake of the country. However we could well be on the middle leg of a “W” shaped recovery, or even in reality on a “L” shaped curve like Japan in the 1990’s. personally i haven’t seen enough yet to convince me this is a genuine recovery, especially once the taps are turned off in terms of quantitative easing and interest rates start to creep up.
64 - I’ll give him credit for an election he fights and wins as PM. I don’t think I’ll have to give him any credit.
Tony Blair won three general elections, not Gordon Brown. The handing him of the premiership was a Labour Party internal Balls-up.
57
The worst of the economic crisis in terms of how it feels to ordinary people is without a shadow of a doubt AHEAD of us.
The payback for all this borrowing - AFTER the election, whoever wins - will be very painful. Right now, with super low interest rates and the reckless spending of vast quantities of borrowed money, things don’t feel too bad if you still have a job.
The cuts will affect everyone though, in all walks of life. 2011 and 2012 will be miserable. Cuts cuts cuts.
My big fear is that Labour will get the votes of quite a lot of stupid people by pretending it’s all fine again now, Gordon has saved us. It might just work well enough to stop him losing.
64: Just a little bit of rewriting history there…remember this called Tony Blair? He might have had something to do with it.
“He’s been [in charge of] four successful election campaigns including the one that got him the Prime Ministership.”
Ho, ho, ho’s to infinity and beyond!
64 Roger
Nonsense. Gordon Brown has absolutely no political antennae. This was the man in charge of the Gurkha debacle. This was the man who made the infamous Youtube video. This was the man who thought “Labour investment versus Tory cuts” would play.
To the extent that he is recovering in the polls, it is due to falling Conservative support, not a Labour bounce.
With Gordon chairing the G20+++ who else will he need to co-opt into it to avoid being the only country in recession? Somalia? Dubai? Bangladesh? Haiti?
Zac Goldsmiths announcement was timed to kill the story.
I guess after that PMQ’s it will make it bigger.
52. I’m (roughly) basing it on Lebo & Norpoth’s model
ms.cc.sunysb.edu/~mlebo/…/THE%20PM%20AND%20THE%20PENDULUM.ppt
which found that PM approval has to be weighted by the two-party vote.
So in the days of Callaghan, when the 2PV was about 85%, Jim needed half that as his positive approval rating to stay in office.
Today, with the 2PV less than 70%, Gordon would only need about 35% positive approval to win a majority, according to the model.
If he can get to over 30%, that would be indicative of a hung parliament…
60 Jon C. Yes, the election campaign is going to be key, and on past form you’re right. However, I can see a way of Gordon turning it around - Labour need to make a PR virtue out of his not being good at PR, and conversly suggesting that Cameron is too good at it. That way Gordon can appear to be honest, while Cameron is depicted as the untrustworthy snake-oil salesman. Something similar worked for in 2005 for Charles Kennedy.
Worse is if the Tories win with a small majority. They push through all the unpleasant medicine and are turned upon.
Labour get away with it and win next time by which point the country won’t be ready for another Labour government as we won’t yet have the money for them to waste.
In fact, though a disaster for the country, it’s probably the best thing Labour can hope for tactically.
Labour lying to win narrowly in 2010 and then having to oversee the next three years will probably not be a good thing for Labour in the long run.
50. Ah but Harriet is standing for the Labour Party so that’s ok! An effectvive line could be spun that Cameron and his friends at the top of the Tory Party do not really understand how the majority of people live because they have never had to worry about money. The same can be said for many in the Labour Party, but that doesnt matter precisely because they are in the Labour Party. It’s why people thought Hague was posh and Blair ordinary even though their backgrounds were the exact opposite.
Cameron has to some extent skillfully distanced himself from the perception of him as from another caste but it is a weakenss and he knows it is. So far, it hasnt mattered too much because people have been very unhappy with Labour but it is a vulnerable point that if people are willing to listen to Labour could be exploited.
As far as I’m concerned its unfair and I dont give a stuff about Cameron’s background and think it actually prepares him rather well to lead the country, but there is no point in pretending it isnt there just because I would rather it wasn’t. Wishful thinking is disastrous for any political campaign.
69 wibbler
But PMQs should not be judged by its audience as if it were a Punch and Judy show.
Victory is getting the lead sound-bite on the news bulletins. So far Cameron is winning with the “last of the G20 out of recession” attack. Brown’s credibility is further undermined by journalists correcting him on Spain’s status.
Countering Cameron is the talking up of Brown’s confidence and the sounds of his braying backbenchers. Bercow will get his moment here.
So far, on the measurements set out above, I would count this week’s PMQs as a marginal victory for Cameron.
I doubt today’s PMQs will have much impact on the polls. The next major shift will come at the time of the PBR. I expect the chill of economic reality to end Brown’s Indian summer.
Re Zac - anyone know latest odds for LDs in Richmond.
21, 82 - This is the central point. All Gordon Brown’s new-found confidence is for nothing if the story of the day turns out to be that Gordon Brown doesn’t know that Spain aren’t in the G20 and that Britain may be the last country in the G20 to come out of recession.
81. What a ridiculous post.
65. Certainly Downing Street has shrapened up its act in recent weeks and the Tories have been looking complacent. I didnt like Cameron’s “marginal seats” jibes today. Game on for a hard fought election but it still looks like a Tory win. When it comes down to it, Five more years of Gordon is a powerful message. But the Conservatives need to push other lines too: they need to be more positive about their agenda. perhaos, as someone suggested earlier, start asking Brown why he hasnt implemented some of their ideas.
82 Seth O. Logue
True - if the Spain gaffe is what is reported then Brown will have snatched defeat from the jaws of victory.
Personally, I hope they play footage of Sadiq Khan waving his order paper around like a deranged imbecile over and over and over.
78. sorry, link
http://ms.cc.sunysb.edu/~mlebo/Lebo%20and%20Norpoth%20BJPS.pdf
All depends on Q4 growth figures. If we are still in recession then, not even the BBC will be able to spin that one! If however there is at least some growth, no doubt Labour will use that as a springboard for an attempted “Brown Bounce 3″
PS, Gold is at over $1,200 now…
85. Why is it ridiculous?
I missed PMQ’s = reading up it sounds like I missed a bit of panto and Brown lying about G20 and Spain…
Well done Mr Confident.
86.Which Minister was the marginal seats jibe aimed at, was it Ed Balls by any chance?
Labour are boxing themselves into going into the election with Brown.
sweet
81 The class war stuff is a turn-off to swing voters, but will help Labour retain some of its core vote.
59-34% against was actually one of Brown’s better approval ratings. In the latest Yougov, I think it was 67%-25% against.
The Wayne S Thomas hysteria seems to be infectious on all sides of the political circus.
The poll which triggered it still recorded Labour in the 20’s and that is its most significant finding.
Another cabinet minister this week has said he will stand for the leadership of the Labour party after the election, thus telling us that the cabinet think Labour will lose.
The narrative on Cameron the PM in waiting has tired the press and triggered a not unexpected tirade from his opponents and a backlash from the easily bored.
Cameron asked sensible questions today. He is not looking for a knockout blow but ammunition for further electoral debate while pinning Brown down whenever possible and laying the ground work for exposing his deceit.
His job is not to be a rabble rousing thug as some of the ‘advice’ on here demands, but a PM candidate. He is doing that well. He is not infallible, always right nor is he always wrong.
Reading some of the posts on here you would think he had done nothing right for four years but these gross errors had only been noticed last week.
It does remind me of the grammar school hysteria. And of course Cameron had to resign after that didn’t he? His poll ratings never recovered and his party went into meltdown.
90. Because, it’s much more thoughtful than the reflex partisan stuff we get incessantly from Runnymede.
92 - He did it twice, against Balls and Bradshaw. Decapitation strategy?
9 - he wanted to correct the impression that Labour “somehow” gave of us withdrawing from 2010.
I suspect you know that really.
The nipple satnav has been switched off till the next time (hat tip The Thick of It).
““The rich always betray the poor,” will be his theme.”
Very true except ZNL have their own version - get rich by betraying the poor.
If there’s any point to the Labour party it should be that the estates are better places to live in after 12 years than they were before. And they’re worse. At the same time Labour ministers are now all millionaires.
Not a result.
10 _ would love to take that bet with you Roger, how much you willing to put up?
97.Thanks, it does seem like there is a real spat developing between Balls and Cameron right now. I thought the same thing last week at PMQ’s, I wonder what is going on off the radar right now?
92. Ed Balls and Ben Bradshaw
92 - Yes.
Making Balls look competent last week has clearly stung Cameron.
Seems the BBC is running with the last G20 in recession story too..
Has he snatched defeat from an otherwise better performance?
Spain is not listed as a G20 member on its website and the Treasury referred calls on the subject to No 10.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8390901.stm
88. and
http://ms.cc.sunysb.edu/~mlebo/timeseries/THE%20PM%20AND%20THE%20PENDULUM.ppt
86
I stand by my observation on the previous thread and it may strike posters as absurd but it goes as follows
Does David Cameron really want to be the next Prime Minister of our country?
He looked anything but a “PM in waiting ” today and many more performances like today,he could well be condemned to the post of Permanent Leader of the Opposition.
I have stated on many occasions that Sir Alec Douglas-Home would be the last Old Etonian Prime Minister in living memeory….time will tell
03
If that post is to make sense you must think Balls is astonishingly incompetent. Is there any member of the Labour government you don’t think is crap, tim ?
re 64 Roger, No. He’s just a thuggish bully. There’s plenty of evidence to support that view, and none your fantasy.
103 tim
Making Balls look competent
But wouldn’t Dave need to be the Son of God to achieve that?
Looks like the Brown overconfidence and the happy pills have lead to him dropping a clanger.
Again…what looks good for Brown on the face of it, really doesn’t at a second glance.
Brown gaffe re. Spains G20 membership not picked up by PR man - says it all really!
HUNG PARLIAMENT because none of em are any better than the other basically !
95. Witan, I think you are right that a lot of the stuff is hot air and hysteria. Cameron has been a very good leader of the opposition and Labour is still stuck in the 20s and the narrowing of the gap has been more to do with the Tories dropping below 40 than Labour gaining points.
Having said that, I think there is a sense that Labour have been doing better, making fewer mistakes, while Cameron has found it a little heavy going in the last few weeks, partly thanks to self-inflicted mistakes. In the end, though, Cameron is a superior politician to Brown and that will come across in the election campaign and results.
“the Treasury referred calls on the subject to No 10. ”
“Nothing to do we us, mate ” in other words.
Just come from a meeting of ultra-marginal MPs - everyone markedly more cheerful that a few months ago, mainly because the perception is that people are moving from “do you think Labour is great?” to “do you prefer Labour or Tories?”, and the controversial performance of Tory councils in many areas is pushing people our way (the same pattern that worked in Glasgow and Glenrothes). Some reporting a shift in WWC sentiment towards us, which I have to say is the element that I’ve not spotted myself yet.
Meanwghile, my local Tory mole tells me the national Tories are having a Big Push starting the new year - lots of poster sites booked from Jan 4.
Worst day on this site I can remember today.
111 - “Brown gaffe re. Spains G20 membership not picked up by PR man”
What are you talking about?
107 Herbert - Well, if you’re right there’s easy money to be made by a Lay on Cameron as Next PM, currently available at 1.28 on BetFair. What’s more you’d win in the event of a pre-GE Brown departure as well.
Personally I won’t be joining you.
Witan “He also thinks of himself as a special person, of a particular elite : “I’m directly related to the progenitor of the high kings of Ireland, Niall of the Nine Hostage”, he likes to say.
He tends to be typecast as the baddie (can’t imagine why). His best film role,in my opinion, was in the last Bourne film where at the end he shot himself.”
*off to make a cup of tea - the last one is now all over my keyboard*
114 Nick P - my local Tory mole tells me the national Tories are having a Big Push starting the new year - lots of poster sites booked from Jan 4.
That certainly makes very good sense, and I think reinforces the point I was making earlier that Cameron and Osborne will be building up the campaign in the New Year, not in the run-up to Christmas.
Now, I wonder what will be on those posters…?
115 Reallly? I thought the one about samosas was an all time recent low.
119 I hear Moss Bros are doing a roaring trade
Is this the guy who could do a better job than Cameron?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/newsnight/8383355.stm
I’ve enjoyed today on the site. It’s been an interesting day’s politics with a wide span of opinions being expressed and some good betting posts. In fact, this is probably the most enjoyable day for me on the site since the EU elections and the failed putsch.
An imagined Irish ancestry is a boost to the self esteem of many a well heeled labour luvvie actor. Of recent “Who do you think you are?”s , I particularly enjoyed one finding Orange Order relatives, one an ancestor who made the family fortunes in the slave trade and one who had no link with the emerald isle at all.
95. Sean Fear, I agree that when put in crude class war terms it turns off floating voters while perhaps shoring up the core vote, but there is a similar but more subtle strategy that could be pursued which plays to people’s misgivings about Cameron and his background.
Cameron is not middle-England: he is the Tory squirearchy. He is not Daily Mail reading, which is partly why the Mail has never been sold on Cameron. he is not one of the “coping classes” and Labour could, if they play it right, peel off some of the softer Tory vote by claiming that Cameron’s cuts will hit them but will protect those at the very top.
116 - I think his point is that, had Cameron or his frontbench team known Spain wasn’t in the G20, he could have snapped back at the next question. Shows how little the political class generally know about these things really. It was presumably some spods back at base who spotted it.
On Cameron jitters/Brown confidence, it strikes me that Brown has the confidence of a man who thought he’d lost everything but has found the repo man left his third best coat with a lottery ticket in the pocket. It isn’t much, but it’s hope. Cameron strikes me as a man who knows he’s close but realises he might still blow it. Nothing more than that though.
126 - That’s an excellent assessment of David Cameron’s and Gordon Brown’s states of mind.
114 NPMP
Just come from a meeting of ultra-marginal MPs
Was Ed Balls at the meeting?
125 Labour don’t do subtle.
127. It doesnt say much for the calibre of our top politicians that neither of the front benches knew that Spain wasn’t in the G20.
No wonder we are last out of recession
126 – Possibly true, however, Gordon Brown’s mantra that Britain was “best placed” to weather the economic downturn has been exposed as the exact opposite of the reality. At PMQs, today, Cameron revealed that Britain was the only Country of G20 still in recession.
Brown’s desperate act was to lie, and the MSM are highlighting it. Job done.
126 Sir Norfolk - Yes, good analogy. But I expect Cameron is also mindful of the magnitude of the task he is likely to be taking on in a few months’ time.
130 - To be honest, I didn’t know either. As I understand it, Spain is basically an associate member, and would be a member outright due to the size of the economy but for its involvement via the EU. Bit bad nobody knew it though - wouldn’t have them in my quiz team!
129. Brown doesnt certainly, which is good news!
130 - I would rather politicians had judgement rather than knowledge.
Sadly, they usually have neither.
Just watched a recording of PMQ. I agree Brown seems to have a second wind and Cameron looked jaded. However, Brown’s gaffe about Spain’s membership was his undoing. Even if it was true, having one other country out of twenty in as deep a mess as us is hardly something to crow about. Then confidently to protest that Spain was a member of the G20 is rather like correcting the spelling of other people but getting the spelling wrong yourself. It all seemed rather symbolic of Brown’s period in office: the record of disaster, an inability to avoid the tactical opportunity to wrong foot the opposition, the bold assertion based on misplaced confidence in his own brilliance, swiftly followed by egg on his face.
132 - I don’t think that explains the recent jitters. The scale of the post-recession challenge has been widely known for many months, and all politicians have the self-confidence/arrogance to believe they’d be amazingly good at it.
Less bad is the new good on PMQs.
107 - I suspect that Cameron does not view each PMQ session as a boxing match, requiring a winner on points and a possible knock out.
He knows that most people don’t watch - or possibly even care - about any particular PMQ.
I could be descending into analysis paralysis or just plain delusion here, but my suspicion is that Cameron is using PMQs to enable Brown to show himself at his worst - the tractor stats, avoiding the question, the dissembling, lies and the awkwardness, the whole ‘clunking fist’ thing.
Taken individually any single PMQ is not much, but the combined impression is what matters, and on that Cameron is the clear winner.
Having said that, it does appear that Labour has a spring in their step which was missing until now, but given the history of Brown bounces and ‘relaunches’, it is probably only a matter of time before the status quo ante reasserts itself.
Technically I guess the front benches have a get out, Spain is in the EU which is in the G20. Since Spain is leading the EU from the new year…
122. I believe Hunt will be the next Tory leader, met him a few times and very impressive.
141 IIRC I spotted his expense form for 1p telephone call - my claim to fame is that small
Oh yes - here it is.
http://plato-says.blogspot.com/2009/06/best-expense-claim-1p-phone-call.html
David Miliband being very careful to note that the government should not give any false promises, particularly to military families about the time table for withdrawal on Skynews. Must go back and check the story over the weekend before Gordon Brown’s speech on Monday.
All this spain/G20 nonsense remainds me of Fawlty Towers when some guest complained that Basil’s hotel is the worst hotel in the country and the Major (overhearing) responds that ‘ no I won’ have that there is a place in Exeter(?) thats worse’
Is Brown really that proud to say we are 19th (rather than last) in the countries in deaing with the recession?
114 - NPMP. Fair enough, but then surely the question comes down to what each party has to offer. What is the big selling point you can give? The LibDems’ tax policy is very clever at tapping into the lower-paid area. It’s something for them to sell on the doorstep. The Tories have we’re not Gordon Brown. What does Labour have to sell?
On the posters, it makes good sense to go hard in the New Year. People’s minds turn to the future. If they have a good message for that mood, they could shift the mood again.
This whole Toffs campaign is going to be messy and difficult. I notice the Labour MP on R5L was expressing concern about how to play it. It’s a very fine line. Screw it up and a whole load more Crewe & Nantwichs will follow.
Well this will go down well
“MPs will be allowed to appeal against calls to repay expenses judged to be wrongly claimed, the Commons committee which considers expenses has said.
But the Members’ Estimate Committee said it was recommending that MPs repay money when asked to do so…”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8391140.stm
Gordon Brown definitely won PMQs today, there’s no glossing over that. It might well be overshadowed by the whole Spain gaffe though, much as the pathfinder business muddied Cameron’s win on Islamic school funding last week.
139 - “descending into analysis paralysis”
I experience the same feeling whenever OGH runs a thread on “Will Gordon go?” “Will Gordon stay?” and “who will be the next leader of xyz?”
We need a good sex scandal to brake the monotony…
148 - or even better one involving sex, royalty and religion…
148 - Are you volunteering?
149 and wildlife - badger spotting was just so creative
151 - But badgers are striped?
All Cameron need do is promise some kind of referendum on the EU.
“Do you wish to renegotiate powers surrendered by Lisbon?”
He will then receive full backing from the Conservatives.
151 - so we end up with -
“My God”, said the Queen, “I’m pregnant and Charles’ pet badger just died!”
84 John R
LDs are 11/10 with WillHill for Richmond. That’s fairly generous as it’s 5/6 across the board with the other three bookies quoting odds.
I reckon it’s a toss up at this stage so no more than a smidgeon of value in the LD price.
141 - You can get him at 66-1 with Victor Chandler. That strikes me as decent odds if you want to blow a fiver on a long-shot, although he wouldn’t be in my top five most likely - he strikes me as pedestrian.
O/T, but here’s one Australian councillor:-
“T. B. Bechtel, a City Councilor from Newcastle , Australia , was asked on a local live radio talk show, just what he thought about theallegations of torture of suspected terrorists. His reply prompted hisejection from the studio, but to thunderous applause from the audience.
HIS STATEMENT:”If hooking up one raghead terrorist prisoner’s testicles to a carbattery to get the truth out of the lying little camelshagger will save just one Australian life, then I have only three things to say: ‘Red is positive, black is negative, and make sure his nuts are wet’.”
Some further thoughts on this thread.
Brown’s improvement appears to date back to his performance in the debate on the Queen’s Speech last month and an excellent thread on pbc by Mike (2009/11/19) entitled “Has Brown let himself be spooked by Cameron?” and which has been received by No 10 and perhaps even acted upon.
Keep a lookout at the New Years Honours List,Mike
The quotation about ‘the playing fields of Eton’ runs: ‘The Battle of Waterloo was won on the playing fields of Eton’ (attrib The Duke of Wellington). Sounds as if Gordon has a problem with this - perhaps he backed the French.
An interesting perspective on PMQ’s from Lloyd Evans, who isnt always one to please those on the centre right…
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/5591303/etonians-and-bolsheviks.thtml
Lloyd Evans in the Speccy:
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/5591303/etonians-and-bolsheviks.thtml
Snap!
162 too slow!
161/2 John Rentoul is even more surprising
Iain Dale, Conor Ryan and Amol Rajan (see previous post), an unholy alliance, all greatly impressed by Gordon Brown’s performance at Prime Minister’s Questions. So was I. Relaxed, conversational and - blessed relief after such a long drought - with humour.
But there was one line that was too good to use. Brown invoked the name of Zac Goldsmith, the dormantly non-dom Conservative candidate, and said that David Cameron’s inheritance tax cut seemed like something “dreamt up on the playing fields of Eton”.
Having a go at Cameron’s school, chosen for him by his parents: Not Going to Work.
It is a core vote strategy that may appeal to people that would vote Labour anyway; Middle England won’t like it.
http://indyeagleeye.livejournal.com/59645.html
Peter Hoskins in the Speccie voices an opinion also raised upthread
It all depends on what the broadcasters pick up on. If it’s Brown’s gag that the Tories’ IHT policy was “dreamed up on the playing fields of Eton”, then it will hardly reflect well on the PM. This clumsy, class-based politics didn’t do Labour much good during the Crewe & Nantwich byelection, and it rather undermines Brown’s frequent claim – frequently made in PMQs, that is – that he concentrates on politics, while Cameron concentrates on personality. Throw in Brown’s G20 gaffe, and suddenly this PMQs session doesn’t look all that rosy for him, after all.
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/5590783/a-pmqs-to-damage-brown.thtml
It strikes me one of the things the left leaning media and Labour are trying to achieve is to paint a picture of Cameron being at odds with the Conservative party as a whole. Certainly some useful idiots on the right (Montgomery always weighs in with a helpful quote to keep these issues alive - “climate change really is an issue that can split conservative parties around the world.”) can’t see how they are being played. I hope they wise up quickly.
More fun at the AGW team
http://iaindale.blogspot.com/2009/12/from-university-of-east-anglia-archives.html
167: indeed..what the tory party need more than anything now is loyalty and commitment. They have to want government, and that means putting anything which Labour can use aside.
104 - but he didnt though did he tim?
You may recollect a few of the posts made on the subject that pointed out what a muppet VBalls has been
But I forget, you’re the non Labour voting person who just happens to spend 14 hours a day spinning for Labour
Ashdown on Sky losing the plot re the Falklands (he was doing well til then)……..
Boulton on PMQs…
http://blogs.news.sky.com/boultonandco/Post:9db34fb0-270d-44fd-a77f-57fa2251b7f7
He’s not sure it’s a win either. I actually am not sure that it matters in the end. It’s what it does to the party. From NPMP’s comments upthread and watching the back benches, the PLP has got something to be happier about. He has definitely energised them and that is what matters for the coming campaign. It remains to be seen what comes out of the Conservative PPCs. We’ve seen plenty of anecdotal evidence that they are confident. Will that hold. If it doesn’t then it proves a shift in the political arena.
105 - they are not a G20 member, Gordon was stretching the truth a touch
161-2 MTF & c
The picture of Brown and Cameron (presumably taken at the Queen’s Speech) has a schoolboyish humour to it. Cameron is smirking and looking ahead and Brown is looking at him in shock.
Can anyone suggest what happened immediately prior to the snapshot?
‘Labour has to listen, says Jones’
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/wales/8390050.stm
171
ConHome give it to GB.
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/thetorydiary/2009/12/live-blog-of-pmqs-from-noon.html
Comments are interesting!
‘New Labour leader Carwyn Jones to hold talks with Plaid on referendum’
http://www.thisissouthwales.co.uk/southwalesnews/New-Labour-leader-Carwyn-Jones-hold-talks-Plaid-referendum/article-1568592-detail/article.html
121 - no, no, no tims attack on Christina one night was pretty grim
Roger and his attack on a grieving mother springs to mind
And a couple of years back we had a Labour leaner saying the falilies of dead soldiers couldnt complain if they went and got killed in a war.
173
Must have been the old Joke, ‘How dare you fart before her majesty’ ‘I’m sorry I didn’t know it was her turn’
171 30% of the Labour MPs are so energised that they are standing down.
Tiger Wods appears to be admitting to “transgressions”
179 sorry mistake it is only 20.5% so far. oops.
‘Salmond speaks out over Hyslop axing’
- The First Minister has defended his reasons for removing Fiona Hyslop as Education Secretary
http://news.stv.tv/scotland/141479-salmond-speaks-out-over-hyslop-axing/
171. He might get them more energized alright, but a large portion of them are standing down anyway so does it really matter?!
@ OGH: please please please can we have a function added that lets us stifle certain posters?
If I have to scroll past one more phucking parochial little post like 182, about yet more of nothing much happening in Smackistan, I will scream.
It’s like having someone read every bl00dy line of every issue of the Rugeley Post read out loud. Please make it stop.
This could be interesting
Mr Miliband said that no member of the coalition involved in Afghanistan had so far refused to send more troops, and refused to rule out further troops from France.
“I certainly don’t rule that out. It would be quite wrong for any country to presume that at this stage - the discussion has only just started,” he said.
He added: “I haven’t heard any country say no”.
http://page.politicshome.com/uk/no_one_has_refused_to_send_more_afghan_troops_says_miliband.html
Paris - President Nicolas Sarkozy has refused a US request for France to send more troops to Afghanistan, the minister for Europe said on Tuesday.
“You know the president’s answer, it’s ‘no’,” Pierre Lellouche said in a French television interview when asked about reports that President Barack Obama was seeking 1 500 extra French troops for the Afghan mission.
http://www.news24.com/Content/World/News/1073/d4275e6acfda4bae81386500331e9717/01-12-2009-07-32/Sarkozy_No_more_troops
France already has 3,750 soldiers attached to the campaign, 3,400 of them in Afghanistan itself, but Mr Sarkozy’s government has insisted that it has no plans to increase the number.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/usa/6695991/US-asks-France-for-1500-more-troops-for-Afghanistan.html
THE Rudd Government has endorsed a US plan to send more troops to Afghanistan but held firm on its refusal to deploy additional Australian soldiers.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/world/rudd-backs-obama-push-in-afghanistan-20091202-k6dz.html
The people who care about Cameron going to Hoxbridge and Eton imo:
1) People who went to Hoxbridge but not Eton.
2) Ethnic prejudice disguised as a class prejudice.
3) Cameron himself.
Use exactly the same attack on Boris and he just drives over it in his tank but it seems to rattle Cameron so i think it does make a bit of sense for them to use the posh attack purely for that reason. Similar with Hague being closet SS - no effect on voters but might rattle Hague himself.
182.”So if our opponents want to gang up against us”
God, what a purile comment from the supposed leader of a political party, and our First Minister. Right boys and girls, you can only play in opposition if you play nicely. I know, I know, that rule doesn’t seem to apply to the Scottish government who are so wonderful that they do not need to be scrutinised, let alone questioned on their policies or record in office.
Interesting re MP’s pensions from Guido
http://order-order.com/2009/12/02/pensions-of-mps-refusing-to-pay-back-expenses-to-be-sequestered/
185 Good points - I wish Cameron would plainly say - ‘Are you going to hold where I went to school against me? What would you say if I did that about you?’
Tories on the back foot in Midlands
http://iclichfield.icnetwork.co.uk/news/localnews//tm_headline=walk-in-health-centre-is-just-the-tonic-for-patients%26method=full%26objectid=24115711%26siteid=108911-name_page.html
Walk-in health centre is just the tonic for patients
Jul 9 2009
A survey has found that a walk-in health centre in Burntwood is helping people juggle work and home by allowing them to get medical attention outside normal surgery opening hours.
The poll by MORI found that a third of Midlanders would prefer an evening appointment with a GP - which prompted the NHS to open the Well-Being Centre at Burntwood, this spring.
The centre, one of several in Staffordshire, is open seven days a week from 8am to 8pm. One benefit is that it can be used by anyone, so patients can choose the centre closest to their work or home.
Cynthia Bowden, who visited the Burntwood centre when she needed an appointment the same day, said: “When I saw the advert for the new centre in the newspaper I thought what a good idea it was – open every day of the year, you haven’t got to make an appointment and you can just walk in. So when I had something wrong with my toe which kept me awake all night, I went to the new centre.
“It was a half-hour walk but it was worth it. It was a lady doctor who saw me and as I am a diabetic it was good to see an actual doctor in case of any complications with my diabetes. It was great as an emergency treatment centre and saved me from going to the hospital.”
Eamonn Kelly, director of commissioning at NHS West Midlands, said: “We have made excellent progress with increasing access to GPs with the number of GP practices providing early morning, evening and weekend opening steadily increasing.
“Out of a total of 965 GP practices in the West Midlands, we now have 658 practices opening at times that are more convenient to patients.
“The centres provide exactly the kind of flexibility and increased access people want. When you need a fast appointment, you can you can call in at the NHS Walk-In Centre where you can expect to be offered a GP appointment within two working days, or an appointment with a practice nurse the same day.
“If you prefer, you can book an appointment more than two days in advance.”
This is going to be of huge significance. As many as 15 or 20 swing voters could clinch it - or lose it - for Cameron.
Few people realise how incredibly exciting the count from Burntwood is going to be.
The London-centricity of this site is preventing lesser posters than myself from noticing the huge significance of what will one day become known as “Cynthia Bowden’s toe”.
Oh FFS
http://www.bleedingcool.com/2009/12/02/british-government-cancels-comics-for-troops-this-christmas/
O/T All is not well in Europe.
Dutch daily NRC reports that “the British are so angry about Sarkozy’s triumphalism that they are blocking negotiations on EU banking supervision…The atmosphere has been so poisoned that the British, who think that supervision damages their City, have stormed out of the negotiations, according to an eye witness”.
http://www.openeurope.org.uk/media-centre/summary.aspx?id=986
And Brown was cock-a-hoop over the appointment of Baroness Ashton. It’s a shame he took his eye off the ball, and failed to see that the post of Finance Minister was the more important role.
I’d guess Zac Goldsmiths timing has made the story about Eton etc far more of a package than it would have been in isolation.
It’s getting more difficult, looking at the comments on Con Home to find people who will defend the IHT error by the Tories
192 the election stopping 10% swing error ?
192: Con home is overrun with trolls…you know that.
192 – Tim, the trouble with your 14 hrs a day postings is that they can be written 24hrs in advance.
191 EdP - Unfortunately the disastrous mistake was made earlier, in allowing the EU to get involved in financial regulation. Given that France and (especially) Germany have spent the last 25 years trying to undermine the predominance of the City, that may be one of the most stupid mistakes in the entire dismal history of the Blair-Brown government.
188 - It’s not where he went to school.
Its the fact that he’s reimbursing the fees to his family, adjusted for inflation, while singing “We’re all in this together”
191
the idea was to stymie Blair and shuffle one of his cronies into position - a demonstration that the power of his patronage is not dissipated.
The good of the country didn’t enter his head for even the merest femtosecond
Now, I wonder what will be on those posters…?
by Richard Nabavi December 2nd, 2009 at 2:17 pm
Well it won’t be the bab with the debt figures because they areassively out of dat. Anything with figures on with be obsolete by the end of the day.
188 Ideally I’d like him to punch Marr in the face just for the hell of it but if that’s not an option then yes, some form of non-defensive words.
Shock as Broxtowe Labour MP “may be celebrated local poisoner”
http://iclichfield.icnetwork.co.uk/news/localnews/tm_headline=the-little-known-history-of-the-hill%26method=full%26objectid=24115590%26siteid=108911-name_page.html
Towering over Rugeley, Etching Hill stands proudly, just as it has for hundreds of years, overlooking the town and a central part of the community.
But, the historic site which lies in an area of outstanding natural beauty and is listed as one of Staffordshire’s RIGS (Regionally Important Geological and Geomorphological sites).
Etching Hill has had many uses over the years and has not always been, the picturesque beauty spot it is today.
In it’s time, the hill, which was formed during the ice age, has been home to armed forces, visitors from across the region as well as a race track but there are many people who know little of the importance of the site.
When exactly horse racing began at Etching Hill is unclear however, what is known is that infamous poisoner Dr William Palmer was once a clerk at the site.
In a shock development it emerged today that a nearby Midlands Labour MP is also called…Dr Palmer.
The link between a local murderer and Broxtowe MP Dr Palmer, which was fabricated from whole cloth just now, by the CRU at UEA, has been denied by the Labour MP. “I have done nothing wrong and there is not a scrap of evidence against me,” he stammered in a transparent non-denial denial, looking a bit shifty and probably guilty.”
It’s going to be a dirty election.
194. This site has sometimes read like ConHome in recent days.
198. “The good of the country didn’t enter his head for even the merest femtosecond”
It never has.
Live website from the Senate re AGW on now
http://houseadmin.edgeboss.net/wmedia-live/houseadmin/11435/100_houseadmin-1310lhob_060525.asx
Banking bombshell, timed to explode during the election campaign…
The directors of Royal Bank of Scotland have been given legal advice that they would have to resign if the chancellor of the exchequer were to block them from paying the bonuses they regard as essential to maintain the competitiveness of the group.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/robertpeston/2009/12/rbs_board_to_quit_if_chancello.html
Brown accused of giving British troops ‘false expectations’ about Afghan pullout as Obama vows to send 30,000 extra soldiers
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1232432/99th-British-soldier-die-Aghanistan-year-named.html
O/T Woods admits playing out of the wrong bunker..
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/8391350.stm
I have let my family down and I regret those transgressions with all of my heart,” he said in a statement on his website.
192.Oh I think that Brown made a huge mistake with the quote ‘playing fields of Eton’. Not only did come across as extremely personal and class based, but he would have done better to note the much more subtle and clever barb that Howard directed towards Blair a few years ago. Howard highlighted his own schooling, Brown on the other hand seemed to be attacking the famous public school in England to score personal political points. What completely stupid thing to do, and from a Scottish Labour PM as well.
Now having seen the behaviour of the Labour backbenches today, and news from NickP’s little marginals get together. You don’t have to wonder how they ended up with Gordon unelected, or why they have kept him in place for the next GE.
196 - “That may be one of the most stupid mistakes in the entire dismal history of the Blair-Brown government.”
There’s one hell of a lot of competition for the podium places in that category, Richard.
Unfortunately, I think you might be right.
The engine of growth in the UK economy and it’s most significant tax generator now left open to being constrained by the French. You couldn’t write better comedy…if it wasn’t so tragic.
201
Oh please no don’t make me laugh.
I am busy researching “mindset of the 1930’s”….a classic from Gordon Brown,almost as good as “cast iron guarantee”
180 - Tiger Woods appears to be admitting to “transgressions”
Well we are now up to three alleged ‘affairs’: Jaimee Grubbs, Kalika Moquin and Rachel Uchitel.
Whether true or not, uncontested allegations tend to stick
This is revealing.
Tories, permanently pessimistic
Labour, bouyed by Brown Bounce II
Lib Dems, Optimism personified
http://page.politicshome.com/uk/proof_at_last_mps_morale_is_all_about_the_polls.html
207 - We’re all in this together, aren’t we?
On Mike’s thread, I spoke to someone who went to Uni with Gordon and her has a fundamental flw./ He has a sense of entitlement which is so great he thinks he is entitled to be PM.
It’s what gets him into trouble. It has today it seems.
I have to admit Cameron is not at the top of his game though I thikn some of the critisism is unfounded and I am still behind him 100%.
But I can’t help wondering if coming up to the first Christmas without Ivan, the anniversary of his death a being a few weeks after and as he will be running into an election campaign, can’t be easy.
197 I see the TIMBOT’s busy getting his kicks, posting this afternoons quota of the online equivalent of the random obscene phone call.
206
So what was his caddy doing?
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/article-23778484-zac-goldsmith-drops-non-dom-status-after-attacks-over-tax.do
His spokesman would not say how much the decision would cost the son of the late billionaire, SirJames Goldsmith. “The benefits were very marginal,” he said. “I don’t know if it is £10 or £10,000.”
I don’t know why the press are bothering with such marginal amounts.
As Zac has explained, he’s less happy the more wealth he has, and less likely to live his green life.
re 197. That’s not how it came over. Yet again Brown shows how crass and insensitive he is.
This guy is gaffe-prone - and the 313 Labour members who signed his nomination in 2007 should be feeling a little sicker by the day.
Damning indictment for Labour’s record on schools as grades barely improve despite spending being doubled
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1232447/Damning-indictment-Labours-record-schools-grades-barely-improve-despite-spending-doubled.html
Legg update - report will be published early in the New Year, including any MPs’ appeals against the recommended paybacks and a verdict on those appeals by a retired Lord Chief Justice. A resolution of the House will then be proposed authorising the house to recover the money, voluntarily where possible, otherwise from salary and allowances.
To reply to Sth London Nick upthread - a common view of the ultra-marginal MPs was that their opponents have gone to ground after frenetic efforts 6-12 months ago - few leaflets, no regular canvassing, the full-page ads/newspaper wraparounds that some were taking no longer in evidence. Conversely one MP from a safer seat reported that she’s starting to see that hyperactivity. The collective view was that (a) the national Tory operation has retargeted to the 4000-8000 majority range and (b) now the national party spotlight is off them, many Tory PPCs in the ultra-marginals mostly reckon the job’s done and they don’t need to bother until the campaign itself. (Evil chuckle.)
215 - Teeing up his balls?
Whenever the routine smeers come up about Etonians I am reminded of Bernard Crick’s evocation of the Eton chapel roll call in WW1 that Orwell listened to each night of the 5,687 Etonians who served in that war, 1,160 were killed and 1,467 wounded.
218 - Indeed, schools and education are only slightly better than they were under the Tories. At least then our badly educated kids did not cost us so much, eh?
206 - almost 800 comments reacting to Tiger’s mea culpa on his website.
213.SallyC, on your last point, that also crossed my mind over recent weeks, and in particular today when Brown raised his schooling at Eton at PMQ’s. He tried to attack Cameron on his ‘privileged back ground, and bearing in mind the loss of Ivan, and that made me cringe even more when I heard Brown utter those words.
@131 127 ghost,and others posting similar to this..
‘It doesnt say much for the calibre of our top politicians that neither of the front benches knew that Spain wasn’t in the G20.’
I think you will find that Cameron made it very clear, ‘that ‘we’ are the ‘only’ Country in the G20 that are still in recession, which indicates that he and the tory front bench were/are quite aware that Spain are not in the G20, it follows a previous gaff by Straw, I think Cameron quite rightly set Brown up knowing he would lie and repeat what is now labours defence re recession,… mmm, quite clever really, so it seems some posters here have Brown qualites. lie or twist the facts to suit.
i wouldn’t be to quick to rubbish Cameron, slowly slowly catch ze monkey, still along way to go till GE, Camerons tactics are ok sound and steady,give just a little and let labour hang themselves.
EU/climate are our negatives, but these have been forced into our reality and are not something that can be dealt with in the immediate future, Cameron has to get elected as PM to even have a cats chance to start reeling these back to some normality.
Al the class war stuff is very overplayed on both sides of the equation. My experience is that people just do not care that much - they don’t care that DC went to Eton, they don’t care that Brown has a dig about him going to Eton. It’s all irrelevant.
The real issue is whether the Tories are planning a series of tax cuts for the very well off at the same time as telling everyone that “we are all in this together”. Clearly this is gaining at least some traction and the Tories on here, in the Commons and elsewhere do not like it. So clearly Labour will keep pushing it for all its worth.
It is worth nothing, by the way, that the Mirror has been going very strong on putting the Tories under the spotlight for the last week or so. From a Labour perspective, it is doing an excellent job and has got Cameron and Co rattled.
Weird action at the front,lads and lassies. I Layed some 1.15 Tories this morning and then (finally) got matched at 1.13;a bet that has been up for a fortnight, so then I took back the 1.15.
To clarify for the benefit of civilians, there has been a lot of Tory Backing going on despite events.
204 - Call their bluff.
216 - I’m guessing here, but I suspect it’s nearer £10K than £10, and not particularly near either!
It’s all very well browns return to confidence, but really what positive, or truthful answer did he give, how is that good for our country, honestly i despair at such low moral standards that we are now excepting from our politicians.
226 - the whole ‘class warfare’ business is a 1930s mindset. That’s what all the death tax nonsense is about - less affluent people don’t pay it. It’s a tax on death.
How is letting people keep their own money - on which they have already paid tax - ‘bad’?
It takes a twisted mind to think it is ‘good’ to take money off someone merely because they have died.
230. Whatever the rights and wrongs of IHT, we are where we are with the tax and benefits system. So to answer the question “Which group would you prioritise for a tax cut?” Cammo has answered “Millionaires”. It just does not play well.
221 - Surely you could come up with a similarly sad statistic about any group? I have no doubt the death rate amongst those traffic wardens, local council bureaucrats and bankers who served was similarly horrific. I have nothing but huge respect for any member of any of these groups who served with honour in that terrible conflict, but am baffled as to why you seem to think it precludes criticism of more recent members of those same groups.
Why does everyone carry on about millionaires?
If you die today with £326k of assets you pay IHT. Is that reasonable?
The point that needs to be driven home is that only millionaires WILL pay IHT under these proposals.
In case it has not been noted already, Paddy Power have paid out on their November Poll market.
The winning band was Labour deficit of 6 to 10 points, which I believe was favorite at 4/6 when the market opened. Winning punters can count themselves lucky though. The (in)famous Mori poll put the deficit on exactly 6. One point less and the bold punters who got very large odds on the <6 points band would have cleaned up.
Unlucky, those lads and lasses.
Ladbrokes have also paid out on the Welsh Leader of the Labour Party election. Again, the hot favorite came in.
Don’t think it was the most active of markets.
Sadly, Hills have yet to pay out on a 2010 election.
Wake up, Sidney - The Magic Sign paid out weeks ago!
i think labours tactic to manipulate class envy says it all really. also point of interest, how many labour mps have become millionaires, or aquired a substantial property portfolio during their time in office?
i think labours tactic to manipulate class envy says it all really. also point of interest, how many labour mps have become millionaires, or aquired a substantial property portfolio during their time in office?
184 John R, what an odious person you are , go and start your own blog and talk to yourself.
233: “So to answer the question “Which group would you prioritise for a tax cut?” Cammo has answered “Millionaires”. It just does not play well.”
How many more times does it have to be explained?
Millionaires (whatever that means in the IHT context; the deceased, the beneficiary?) do not pay IHT now because they can afford the tax planning and advice to avoid it.
Raising the threshold for IHT does not impact millionaires one iota.
The gainers are the middle income/wealth bracket whose estate previously qualified but prospectively will not under a new IHT regime. Middle income/wealth people are, by definition not millionaires.
They are ‘ordinary hard-working families’ who happened to own a house in the south of England.
228 - if you think todays headline in the Mirror is them “doing a good job” then may we all be helped.If the Sun had put up a headline accusing Brown/Labour of being “child snatchers” there would have been outrage and cires of how unfair, cuel, etc etc etc.
The Mirror disgusts me.
242 - The confusing thing about that is why, if that’s correct, not just get rid of IHT altogether? If the poor don’t pay now, the rich don’t pay now and Tory proposals mean the middle band won’t pay either, who would in fact be paying the damned tax? The suggestion is that a substantial proportion of the rich probably do pay and would still pay albeit they would be significantly better off than before.
244 - n.b. I’d tax inheritance as income in the hands of the beneficiary, allowing the relatively well off to decide where money goes but strongly encouraging them to spread the largesse widely but thinly. A poor niece’s charter if you will. But it lacks the political attraction of generous tax cuts for identifiable groups.
224 SO - Did the universities back then have to introduce their own tests because they could not rely on the official qualifications?
Thought not
211 Herbert Proper Snr
I am busy researching “mindset of the 1930’s”
I guess Gordon had Ramsay MacDonald, his party’s first ever Labour Prime Minister, in mind: in particular his second term of office beginning in 1929.
Like Brown, MacDonald faced a global recession which started in America. In deciding how to manage the economy, MacDonald’s cabinet was split: only this time the Prime Minister favoured public spending cuts whereas his Chancellor advocated deficit spending. Unable to resolve the internal party splits, and at the invitation of the King, MacDonald formed a National Government in coalition with the Tories and some but not all Liberals and Labour MPs. In response, the Labour Party sacked MacDonald and appointed a new Leader.
MacDonald then put the cuts vs. spending argument to the electorate. He called an election which resulted in the National Coalition being returned with 556 of the 694 seats in the HoC. The Tories achieved 55% of the votes, with 473 seats (210 gains) and Labour fell to 52 seats on a 30.8% share.
I rather like the idea of Cameron having a 1930’s mindset myself.
233 - no Sandy that really isnt true and you know it.
This is what annoys me, the sheer dishonesty of the positioning going on.
Tell me why should a frind of mine who cleans houses and at one stage school toilets lose a chunk of her inheritance in this way.
Her husband has lost his job and the inheritance they did get has gone trying to keep them afloat.
Despite Labour announcements re helping people keep their houses they expect to lose their house next year.
Why punish someone for doing the right thing in their life and working hard to pass something on to their kids?
I really think Brown ought to come clean and admit he made a mistake about Spain. I don’t think he’s big enough, though. At heart he’s still convinced he is always right, and that everyone else is always wrong.
If Brown wants to change the public’s perception of him, an admission that he made an error today would be a good start.
today’s PMQs was eye ron cast proof that Brown takes prescription drugs. He was as high as a kite.
31.4% was the percentage the Conservatives polled in 1997 which was universally described as a “catastrophic result” and “meltdown” for the Tories. If Brown hold onto office with the same sort of share I wonder if the media will use the same words to describe Labour’s performance.
Its better that the one eyed Scotch traitor ’seems confident’, it will make his impending electoral doom all the more pleasurable and satisfying.
251 The unfair seats to votes ratio means that 31% for the Cons produces a lot less seats than the same vote share for labour so the descriptions are valid.
rogerh
251 The unfair seats to votes ratio means that 31% for the Cons produces a lot less seats than the same vote share for labour so the descriptions are valid.
rogerh
253:
The descriptions aren’t valid coming from the liberal left because most of them in other circumstances say argue that votes are more important than seats.
Brown, Mandy,Darling & Co are lined up for jobs in a bank as directors. GE call within a fortnight.
I thought everyone knew that.