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Does the PBR point to this as the day?

December 9th, 2009

Is it worth risking money on the Martin prediction?

Iain Martin in his WSJ blog writes:-

…It seems obvious that it was aimed at an election earlier than May, with polling day probably on March 25. In this scenario, Brown would ask the Queen for a dissolution after Parliament returns from its two-week recess on Monday, Feb. 22. That would lead into a four-week-and-a-bit campaign…

A March 25 election date would also help Labour on two fronts. The party machine is short of money, and would be better getting on with a short and sharp campaign. And the big tax rises — the increases in NI and the introduction of the 50 pence landline tax — won’t kick in until April. The Tories might say, during a March campaign, that this means there’s pain ahead, but Labour will respond by asking what they would do instead.

It all points to March 25.

PaddyPower now has March 2010 at 7/2 while at Ladbrokes it’s 4/1.

William Hill will give you 3/1 that it will be before May 6th.

Mike Smithson