Will deferring the pain save the votes?
December 9th, 2009
How will this be viewed in Tory targets 100-150?
Well there we have it. Darling’s PBR which will frame much of the political debate as we move into the final months of this parliament.
The strategy seemed fairly obvious - defer the pain until after polling day. But is this going to be enough? Will voter’s see through it? How, most importantly, is this going to be viewed in Tory targets 100-150 where the election will be decided.
I just wondered whether Labour should have been a bit more daring with the potential cuts which just about everybody believes are going to happen? Should he have found the equivalent of the Osborne extend the retirement age to 66 move that we saw a couple of months ago?
A final thought: how Mr. Brown must rue his decision in the first week of 2007 to duck out of an election then? A fourth victory was there for the taking. He allowed the initiative to move away and Labour has been on the back foot ever since.
We’ll see from the next crop of voting intention and leader approval polls how this has gone down.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
What the hell is this?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8402362.stm
FPT,
671 - http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/5619178/how-much-more-will-darling-have-to-borrow.thtml
FPT
Some stuff from the PBR Annex B (with Brown, gotta read the smallprint):
- RPI (heroically) predicted to be exactly 3.25% for THREE years. 2011-14. Then 3% in 2015. Oh dear. (Page 2)
- There’s a big difference between Gordon’s measure of debt and the Maastricht definition. Gordon’s measure claims debt will be 77.7% of GDP in 2015, Maastricht definition says 91.2%!!! (Page 6)
- Telephone tax confirmed and raising 175 million in 2011 (Page 11). Other taxes going up include NI, Canteens at work, Pensions auto enrollment delayed, Another 500 million on Pensions???, Index linked gilts, Climate levy, company cars. (All Page 11)
- Spending only detailed to 2010/11, surprise, surprise (Page 32). Department cut or frozen in 2011: Transport, Communities, Justice, Law Office, Defence, FCO, Environment, Culture.
- The above is for spending, on the same page you have capital budget for each department to 2011. In 2011, EVERY single dept will have this cut or frozen, except development, culture and wales.
http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/d/pbr09_annexb.pdf
by astateofdenmark December 9th, 2009 at 3:06 pm
1. Never let it be said that the Beeb is dumbing down its political coverage.
1 - Looks like it is from the same people who did the friggin how to use a mobile phone video!
FPT
Something else is odd in the Annex B to the PBR.
They say net debt (Gordon’s fantasy measure) is 175 billionish.
Yet Net Cash Requirement is 225 billionish.
That’s a big difference. Anyone know how they’ve managed that conjurers trick?
by astateofdenmark December 9th, 2009 at 3:12 pm
FPT
Oh dear that seems to have suceeded in annoying just about everyone, even the public sector workers who Labour were relyong on at the ballot box are miffed! They’ve got a choice between a pay freeze under the Tories or a 1% rise under Labour.
If you want to see another government commit hara-kiri in full public view then check out the Irish budget from 4. There is likely to be cuts of up to 7% in public sector wages (pay attention Mr Serwotka!) one good point for retailers is that there’s likely to be a big cut in alcohol duty so as to try and deter shoppers heading north to Newry. To give you an idea of how bad the situation is when I was leaving my wife to work at 8.20 this morning I saw a couple coming out of Sainsburys with 2 full trolleys full of booze!
http://www.rte.ie/news/2009/1203/budget2010_coverage_on_rte.html
6 - http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/5619178/how-much-more-will-darling-have-to-borrow.thtml
1 Christ.
1 Indeed WTF?
Lloyd Evans as always didn’t think much of Cameron at PMQ’s (not that it matters really).
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/5619343/in-his-comfort-zone.thtml
5. Except option i. to cut spending isn’t going to be used.
Poor Alistair on GE night. But he could offer to pay the tax he avoided on his flipped homes…
Already talking about bankers on R5.
Sleight-of-hand…
1. Actually that wasn’t too bad, yes the graphics are naff but it does show just how big the deficit is.
8 Oracle
Cheers. So they’ve decided some borrowing, isn’t borrowing and just ignored it. By that calculation then, 225 billion is about 16-17% of GDP, borrowed in one year. ONE YEAR. 16-17% of GDP. Christ.
That also explains the difference between Brown’s debt figures and the debt figures using the Maastricht definition. See comment 3.
11 What a shock.
I suspect Evans would even class Dave driving Brown to tears as draw.
13 - Throw the chaff and the bird brains will go for it.
I wonder if we will hear from the rating agencies over the next few days.
For any high earners on here - the assault on higher rate tax relief is now fully on.
The threshold for starting to lose your tax relief was today lowered to £130,000 from the previously announced £150,000 from 2011.
This increases the number of people affected by approx. 150,000 in the UK.
I am genuinely trying to figure this one out. I think he was caught between the press/markets and the politics/Brown.
In the end he was stuffed either way and so he did nothing but throW a few crumbs to the core vote.
The MPs aren’t howling -he did nothng for the debt and allowed it to rack up but he couldn’t give them any real sweeties either - so they left early.
By not taking a risk he has pleased no-one except…. a risk might have caused a backlash… and could have unseated Gordon.
So we can conclude Gordon wants to stay and Darling is either frightened of him or frightened of the ‘Balls up’ that might come from unseating him.
Labour have decided to drift with as little movement and noise as possible to the next GE.
15 - The Tories and Lib Dem really need to bash it home, the “Not being straight with the public” line on the size of the deficit and debt. The pie in the sky numbers mean little to many, other than they are bad, the knowledge that the government is also lying like hell on the issue is even worse.
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/5619363/an-unmissable-table.thtml
You have to laugh at some of the titles in this table.
FPT 670 SO re NI increases - Savings will be made everywhere, of course. Only a lunatic thinks you can spend 4 pounds for every 3 raised indefinitely. What we do know is that there is garguantuan waste throughought the public sector, a ‘culture of excess’ as Brown put it. Every department, without exception, will have to start asking the question ‘Is this essential?’ rather than ‘Is this nice to have?’ or ‘What have we always done before?’
That, by the way, is not a party-political point, but a statement of the obvious: 2 + 2 does not equal 3.
Even allowing for all that, tax rises will also, regrettably, be needed in the short to medium term. Almost anything, such as a rise in Income tax or VAT, would be better than increasing disincentives to employment. There is a serious danger of a jobless recovery, and the very last thing we should be doing is making that more likely.
6 - AIUI, the difference is that there is a need to borrow extra for funding the banks. The govt is keeping this off the net debt as they have a reasonable expectation of getting this back. The guarantees will be a different matter.
The amount being issued as guilts will also be different if there are notes maturing this year that will need to be rolled over, so that may explain some of the difference.
They have decided to just let things drift for the next 6 months . The markets wont like this as the situation is just too precarious. Things could unravel quickly now.
Labour are frozen in the headlights.
It strikes me that if the markets do not fall, part one of the government’s strategy will have succeeded. The second part then becomes clear - that is, yes there will be pain and everyone is going to have to share in it; those with the most will make the biggest contribution. That’s fair.
The Tories have already said that we are all in this together and that there will be pain, so they cannot argue against that.
The argument then becomes where do the cuts happen and who is affected. If the Tories want to reverse the NI raise - and as someone said in the previous thread the probably will - they are going to have to find cuts or other tax rises to replace it. And clearly they are going to be asked about this. They will argue theyu have not seent he figures, but that is dishonest - they know that if they are cutting off one source of government income, they are going to have to replace it. After all, finding the cash is not optional - as it is when governmensta re looking to increase spending - it is absolutely essential.
Aside from a week of hystericla headlines, I am not sure this will change much at all. The Tories are still clear favourites to win, but Labour have a chance to avoid a catastrophic wipeout.
Another question on the media. Could the FT be ready to switch sides (or at least abandon Labour). The editor was leading his comments based on Osborne’s analysis.
22 Don’t they have spell checkers at the Speccie?
“The only fiscally significant mive in this budget”
Last thread they got the word “Budget” wrong.
28 - They headhunted the Guardian’s sub-editor.
“those with the most will make the biggest contribution.”
I’d check out the Graun’s coverage if I were you before going big on that line.
Yer know, the dead giveaway that nobody in Labour has ever run anything lies in the fact that they’re scared to be unpopular.
If the troops can see it’s necessary, they respect you for it, eventually.
27. That would be a big shift as the FT has been hostile to the Tories for a long, long time.
26 - SO, you do have a point. They have put in place some cuts, but they have also given some meat for Balls to play with. I think that was deliberate as he is the most combative performer they have. Now Byrne who is normally quite most effective has been all over the place today.
In the short term, there might be enough to bring some more core back on-board. What Darling today has done has announced a pay freeze for the public sector - A 1% increase with a 1% NI increase to match it off. I used to work in the Contributions Agency/Inland Revenue and no money shifts hands for public sector NI - it’s just classed as deemed to have been paid. Where the danger lies for Labour is that it puts the pain in sharp focus for the middle classes (£20k+). The public may just decide that a shorter and sharper pain will be easier to bear. I’m not sure that the Tories will get much of an increase (they have already won this battle to this date) but I would suspect Labour’s increase will grind to a halt.
27
would you really want the FT on your side?
‘Broadest Shoulders’ and ‘Inheritance Tax’ meme from the Labour Dummy on R5. Got his lines down pat…
23 - I agree with a lot of that.
However, the NI increase comes in in 2011, not now. I am not sure that employers will be disincentised to employee people now based on what is going to happen in a couple of years time. Presumably, they will only take new people on if they are expanding in the first place, which implies they feel they will be pretty well placed in 2011. More of an issue, I would have thought, is whether companies will lay people off in anticipation of what may happen. Again, though, my guess is that they won’t at this stage.
The Labour CCF on here seem astoundingly quiet after all the froth of recent days…
I’m not surprised = they must be in a state of shock too.
29
Bloody pleased to hear it!
(one less of the triple Ls is fine be me - was he ritually dispatched?)
36. It’s finally sinking in to their thick skulls that Labour have screwed up like no government ever before.
26. those with the most will make the biggest contribution. That’s fair.
No it’s not. Those who are most to blame should make the biggest contribution - that is, Labour voters. They elected the incompetent bastards who landed us in all this and they’ve been trousering the beer money and the benefits.
They must pay.
Population boom is a ’spectre’, says Alan Johnson
Figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) suggest that the population of the UK will increase by almost 9 million by 2028.
Alan Johnson dismissed this figure as a “spectre”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6950178.ece
FPT 667 “I used to think Gordon smiling was never a good thing.
Now I have realised, it doesn’t mean anything at all. Nothing.”
Have you read Iain Banks’ “The Wasp Factory”?
36 - The Tories seem to have completely changed tack too. Where now all those accusations of a giveaway to the Labour core vote and a class war? It turned out to be completely wrong, didn’t it. Under Labour, it seems, we really are all in this together.
36 Where’s Gabble, after last nights ‘Blam Blam’ comment? Has he suffered a misfire?
26 - those with the most will make the biggest contribution. That’s fair
Sez who? If I pay 40% on the next pound I earn, and you pay 50% on the next pound you earn, how is that ‘fair’?
39 - I am not sure that the Tories should pick that up and run with it as a slogan.
35 - SO. One way you could look at mitigating it would be do something along these lines. Remove the 1% increase on employers NI. Anyone on JSA for 6+ months is free of employers NI for 2 years and all new businesses get 2 years free of all taxes. In the end you get some cuts in the level of JSA payments and increased income tax from more employment.
You would then have to make some more cuts. I would do things, like cutting the building schools programme and leaving it up to the new “free schools” that the Tories have planned. I would also remove funding from the the lifestyle advisors and focus it on the areas we really need it (those on lowest incomes who risk joining what some call the underclass). I would also keep the complete freeze on public sector pay, a ban on recruitment and target 30% administration personnel cuts across the public sector.
Misery all round ! Rejoice!
*** Betting Moan ***
How on earth did Darling manage to introduce a tax on bankers’ bonuses without using the phrase “bankers’ bonuses”, thus making me lose my bet with Shadsy? Grrr..
44 - Because I have more than you and we are all in this together.
SO, you must be so proud. Labour have dragged the country into the shit so far we are all covered in it to the same extent, regardless of how we have lived our lives over the past 12 years, thanks.
42. Really?
What measures in the PBR we’ve just heard will address the £175,000,000,000 deficit?
There’s the raid on bankers’ bonuses, which they’ll mainly evade. There’s the tax on jobs, but not until after Labour’s lost.
Call those £1,500,000,000.
Where is the other £173,500,000,000 of savings to be found?
48 - How did he manage to hold a pre-budget report that was entirely about the next election without mentioning the word “election”?
From James Landale on BBC …
Around ten million people will be hit by the planned rise in national insurance tax according to the Treasury. Officials said that around 15 million people who earn less than £20,000 will not be affected by the 1% increase from April 2011. But the ten million earning more than that will be hit, raising £3.5bn for Treasury coffers by 2012/13. According to Treasury estimates, anyone earning £30,000 will be £90 worse off. Anyone on £40,000 will be £190 worse off. The same figures for those earning more are as follows: £50,000 - £20 worse off; £75,000 - £250 worse off; £100,000 - £520 worse off; £120,000 - £720 worse off; £150,000 - £1,020 worse off; and £200,000 - £1,520 worse off. Correspondingly, anyone earning just £10,000 will be £110 better off. The spokesman was asked why, if raising national insurance was so important, it had been delayed until April 2011. He replied that that was when the Government needed money to pay for protecting health and schools budgets. What he really wanted to say but couldn’t because he is a civil servant, is that there is going to be a general election next year.
43 - Probably too busy drinking the taxpayer sub’ed booze after a hard day at the “office”. I’m sure he will be back spraying graffiti this evening.
Or you could utter the magic words, no not “open sesame”…
Richie?
Gabble?
[eerie silence]
Afternoon comrades. I missed all todays fun, sadly. Anything particularly exciting happen?
36: Actually, scrapheap, everyone on this site seems very quiet compared with the frenzied touchiness this morning. The markets pretty laid back too:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f148a970-e4c8-11de-96a2-00144feab49a.html
as do the MPs I’ve talked to. There are a few talking points - recession a bit deeper, borrowing a bit shallower - but I wouldn’t think it’s a game-changer either way.
42 What exactly are we all in though? Deep doodoo?
“..the Government will, … be spending an extra £7.7bn in 2011/12 and £6.9bn the following year. “
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/edmundconway/100002580/pre-budget-report-your-5-minute-guide/
It’s only a matter of time before bankers renegotiate their contracts to turn ‘bonuses’ into something else that Brown and Darling cannot grab so easily..
57 Nick P - It’s a game-changer precisely because it’s not a game-changer.
51. Above trend growth. Just remember that Labour overestimated growth 7 out of the 8 last budgets. i.e. The Treasury lied.
Actually it may now be 8 out of 9. Yikes!
57 - Hmm, £/euro going well since Darling sat down,
http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/fds/hi/business/market_data/currency/11/13/img/208+GBP_EUR+bbc-big_thick-line+intraday.png
Nick as I’m sure you know lets just and wait and see what lies have been told. The borrowing figures already seem to be unraveling.
46 - A ban on public sector recruitment would very rapidly mean far fewer front line staff in areas such as crime prevention, health and education, as would a long term freeze on pay. You are going to have to think more carefully than that, though the admin staff idea is probably a good one.
No doubt the cretin Mervyn King will be out to steal more of my savings by printing money. Only way they will manage to borrow the amounts they talk about at the low rates currently being paid.
In the future when they look back, people will be amazed at how a Govt could steal its citizens wealth without any vote by printing 20% more money. And Mervyn King will be seen as the worst Governor ever to step into the Bank of England.
57– and a 1% increase in income tax (or NI if you like), a 1% increase in the cost of employing somebody and a 2 and a half % increase in VAT?
Or do you not think that bothers your potential voters?
64. Southam, the agency I work for in NI has had a recruitment freeze since the middle of last year. This came in after they ran a recruitment competition only to discover that they didn’t have the money to pay the people they were planning to employ!
The risks Labour have run and the mess we’ve been put in is truly shocking. Its criminal.
63 - Down a massive half cent or so on the day. It is unprecedented.
“recession a bit deeper, borrowing a bit shallower”
Deary me Nick, you really are out doing yourself on the quotes.
a bit deeper than predicted?, 4.75% rather than than 3.5% isn’t a bit, it is f##kin massive difference!
and borrowing isn’t shallower, more this year and f##k loads more required next year.
Pleased to see the herd have calmed down a bit. The markets barely raised an eyebrow,
Whats the issue with everyone over £20,000 paying down the debt?
We knew it had to be shared.
Osbornes alternative is of course similar, but stuffing £500,000 into his family’s pockets while everyone else pays.
64 SO - Yes, in general top-down, inflexible freezes and recruitment bans are a bad idea. It may be cheaper to pay a key employee more rather than have him leave and have to hire a replacement or hire the same person back as a consultant. Unfortunately, since Labour will have wasted all of 18 months which could have been used to review plans and budgets properly, Osborne may be reduced to crude broad-brush emergency measures.
67 - I have no doubts a freeze in some areas is perfectly doable, but it’s impossible across the public sector. Retiring teachers, nurses, fdoctors and policemen have to be replaced, for example - unless we want to see real cuts in front line services.
64 - SO you’ve spotted the huge error in my description… My freeze would apply to all administrative functions. For example if you streamlined tax/NI rules you could reduce the processing clerks and replace them with more inspectors. My pay freeze would be for one year, combined with an admin cut would take a chunk out of public sector expenditure plus a reduction in the future liabilities in terms of public sector pensions.
71 so labour will enter the election saying that anyone who earns over £20 k has been worse off under labour?
Good luck with that
72 - He may wish to describe his actions in that way certainly.
Everyone i speak to knows we’re right back in the 70’s now. Class war, sneering at “the rich”, bankers and so on. At least it used to be “foreign bankers” and the “gnomes of zurich” who used to be critisised. Now Labour are bashing one of the biggest wealth creators in the country and the provider of 25% of tax receipts. Wonder how this will end? A 70’s style brain drain - no doubt about it.
71 tim, hasn’t Alistair Darling just stuffed some money into a few pockets with his IHT cut?
75 - Re: 71, There are none so blind as they who refuse to see; none so deaf as they who refuse to hear.
8 and 15. As I understand it the difference in the 2 borrowing figures is the capital recently “invested” in the banks. The difference between what this Government calls debt and what Maastricht calls debt is a little more complicated…
71
“…the 10-year gilt was very oversold before the announcement, which might help explain some of its benign behaviour today.”
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/edmundconway/100002580/pre-budget-report-your-5-minute-guide/
Health Service Journal are claiming that the PBR is a real terms NHS cut…
http://www.hsj.co.uk/news/finance/darling-spells-out-real-terms-cut-to-the-nhs-budget/5009496.article
(Got the link via twitter & can’t access the article as not a subscriber)
74 - That seems fair
75 - No.
Labour has taken the right measures and the debt must be paid down.
They will say “We’re all in this together”
As will the Mr Osborne who wishes to enrich the wealthiest while everyone else pays.
NPMP
How do you come to the conclusion that borrowing will be shallower than thought?
According to the Treasury PBR report, it will be over 90% of GDP in 2014 financial year on the Maastricht definition. And that includes heroic assumptions on Growth and Inflation.
64. A Recruitment Freeze will work, but it is highly random, it only gets rid of positions that have a high turnover of staff.
“I wouldn’t think it’s a game-changer either way”
Shame really because Labour rather needed one.
77 - Let’s hope so. Then we can start to build a proper economy again. We have not had one for decades. Unfortunately, though, I am not sure it will happen. The UK will remnain a much more attractive venue than most other European countries.
I wonder how many polls are still to come before Christmas?
77. Labour would be delighted with that outcome, I would think. Fewer Conservative voters.
Schroders’ Richard Buxton believes the chances of a UK sovereign credit rating downgrade has increased following today’s Pre-Budget Report.
“Whilst no increase in this year’s public borrowing requirement is some comfort, the forecast path to gradual deficit reduction has been extended, taking longer and reducing more slowly,” the Schroder UK Alpha Plus manager says.
“This has to increase the chances of the UK’s sovereign credit rating being downgraded. In turn, this reinforces the probability that sterling will remain weak and that in the face of heavy gilt issuance gilt yields may rise.”
http://www.ifaonline.co.uk/professional-adviser/news/1565561/pbr-downgrade-report-buxton
I would say the election is nailed 100% on for May now - the deferring of the NI rises so as not to hammer people before the GE means its all systems go.
Lay March.
87 you seriously want us to lose our earnings from the City then???
Christ!!
74 Southlondon Nick,
Osborne has just put together a Group of Four experts on efficiency savings, all with very recent knowledge of the state of the public services as they were Government experts very recently. That should help deliver a more nuanced approach to back office & probably some front line savings.
91 - Yes, buy May for all it’s worth!
tim, how much does the average family owe as a proportion of the debt run up by Darling/Brown. That is a real IHT that we should worry about.
Not expecting a reply (other than perhaps some oh so amusing herd reference)
91 Good point, Ghost.
actually i think its nailed in for March 25th, no way they want to do a budget before the election, would be suicide given the state of the country.
It will be March 25th.
It’s grim. Even if we turned every Labour 2005 voter into diesel fuel it would still only raise a one-off sum of about £100 million.
Labour is overspending by half a billion a day so this would fund only about five hours’ worth, although the reduction in benefit scrounging and public sector non-employment would help.
77. Indeed and the cure for the 70s was the 80s, where all Labour’s hidden unemployment, in the shape of overmanned state industries, had to be squeezed out.
There’ll be more of that after 2010. A start will be with the 800,000 useless bums in the public sector.
We spend more on the NHS than in history. But if you’re admitted into one of Labour’s filthy hospitals, you’re more likely to die in there of a disease you didn’t have when you went in than you are to die in a road accident.
Shameful.
97. I would say they could easily do May 6th and not hold a budget.
97 also seriosu risk of losing AAA rating between MArch and May as well (if not before). That will surely finish labour
PMQs was interesting today. Cameron was lifeless, Brown was pointless and Clegg was restless.
However, I do feel Clegg’s passion that he showed is whats needed from a leader. He seemed genuinely passionate about the points he was making whereas Brown just stood there listing the so called “achievements” whilst there were serious points to be answered.
87. I see there is a new front-runner for the village idiot award.
93 - Of course you can nuance it, but as a general principal it would force the public sector to seriously consider how efficient you work things.
When I worked in revenue collection I worked for a “Spend to Save” team. We had to raise £11 for £1 we spent. I raised around £28 in identified failures to pay. We then sent the forms off to the solicitors to collect if the company/individual refused to pay. They would promptly cancel half the debt! We were given no discretion in how we organised a collection. We couldn’t offer instalments (you had to ask) and we couldn’t show any discretion in what we expected. I firmly believe if we had handled in one place we would have brought in more cash. But being less system-focused and more results-focused is the way you achieve it. By forcing the choice on the public sector with a general plan to frieze admin recruitment I would hope you would get more results.
102 It changes from thread to thread. Richie Rich has vanished, as has Gabble, after making the most awful arse of themselves.
102 yes -destroy an ‘export ‘ that earns over one fifth of foreign earning because you personally do not like the people who work in it
92.rightisright - what earnings? It was as much the fault of the losses from unregulated activities in the City as the Government’s incompetence that got us into this terrible financial position.
94 Antifrank - the absence of any detail on cuts gave me the opposite message. Darling cannot stand up again and deliver in 4 months time a Budget as lacking detail on nearly everything that matters. The news could well be a bit worse, the deficit a bit higher.
This was a political statement ready for the hoped for Q4 growth figures to be released and the Afghanistan Conference (Gordon, World Statesman) to create a launch pad for a campaign starting late February, with Maynow a reserve date.
I think this was a PBR designed to be used instead of a Budget in campaiging while the real Budget will be delivered after the election by whoever wins.
83 – No Tim, that is the lie you continuously propagate here.
In the real world, voters are not as thick as you appear to believe them to be.
tim, but 6 months ago Labour were swearing that there were no cuts ahead, and that the only thing we would all be in together was further investment. Were they lying to us? Did reliable alistair mess up his sums?
107 - Why can’t Alistair Darling stand up again and deliver in 4 months’ time a budget as lacking detail? I would have thought that’s the obvious gameplan.
106 if you add up all the money derived from City earnings in terms of PAYE and corporation tax (not forgetting the foreign reseves it brings) you would think labour (with its big government approach) would love the City-not want to destroy it out of juvenile class war
My overall conclusion from today’s PBR announcement is that this makes a March 2010 GE that much more likely, more likely even than May imho, since this Government cannot allow the economy’s perilous situation to drift for a further 16 months, i.e. until 2011/2012 and beyond, by which time at the current rate of deterioration, it will barely be possible to give away Gilts and the pound will have collapsed further to 80 pence to the Euro.
105 - It’s our reliance on the financial sector that has got us into this mess in the first place. Our economy is far too dependent on it. Obviously, we cannot afford for them all to leave, but we do need to do something about it in the long term. If we lost a few bankers and it forced us to re-evaluate our economic priorities that would be a good thing as far as I am concerned. But as I said before, they are not going to go as the UK remains one of the better European venues in which to operate from a banking perspective.
Well it will be worse by the Budget.
Remember the old saying. “There are lies, damned lies, and Alistair Darling’s Treasury forecasts”
112. The mistake is to think Gordon puts the Uk before Labour.
Labour first = May.
106. Even in the midst of this severe crisis the financial services industry has continued to be a big net foreign exchange earner. The surplus was £7 billion in Q2, and if you add in insurance around £9 billion. Meanwhile the goods deficit was £20 billion….
111 - Labour has loved the City far too much over the past 12 years and saw it as something that we could rely on forever. We are paying the price now, big time.
The minor story: Cameron was pretty rubbish in PMQs today - second week in a row. Brown was rubbish too - I reckon it was a draw - but Cameron really needs to get back to defeating Brown week in week out.
113 - Shame government cutting the research funding for science then isn’t it, after already redirecting a load of money away from the likes of Imperial to the Worcester “Uni”’s of this world.
113 its our reliance on overly big government and its spending that has got us into this mess .
116 - And how much has the bank bailout cost so far?
118. PMQs pre PBR was always going to be a damp squib - the opppo wants to keep the story on the PBR.
Stats for the Swiss visa application and info page
http://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/http://ch.vfsglobal.co.uk
121 - If you believe Darling’s fantasy figures (rather than the likes of ONS or IMF) about 20p….
*******Betting Post********
WHO WILL GIVE THE FIRST BUDGET OF THE NEW GOVERNMENT?
WILLIAM HILL are betting on who will deliver the first Budget of whichever Government is in power following the General Election, and make Alistair Darling a 9/2 shot to be the one, installing George Osborne as 4/9 favourite.
‘This bet could be compicated for punters by the possibility of a Hung Parliament which could well influence the identity of the person delivering the first Budget of the next Government.’ said Hill’s spokesman Graham Sharpe.
Hills offer:
George Osborne4/9
Alistair Darling9/2
Philip Hammond8/1
Vince Cable8/1
Ed B*lls10/1
This looks great value on Osborne. Asa far as I can see it is not online.
119 - I rather like the look of their new patent tax break. That should encourage a lot more private sector R&D in this country.
But in general I agree that this government has been catastrophically over-reliant on the City. And by God we are paying for it now.
118 Wibbler - As I’ve suggested before, Cameron seems unwilling to challenge Brown over the economy at PMQs, hence we have session after session from him on Afghanistan.
That’s what makes the sheer, shameless dishonesty of his pre-Budget report so depressing. He faced a clear choice today – either to act in the national interest or the party interest. He chose the latter.
With an election just months away, he swallowed all the scruples we know he has to deliver for his boss a blatantly political package that simply does not address the crisis in the public finances that his government has presided over. He gave no convincing account of how he intends to cut the deficit in half over the next four years – indeed, he spent most of his speech spraying around new spending promises
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/davidhughes/100019430/pre-budget-report-darling-puts-party-before-country/
95- Our debt levels aren’t out of kilter with other major economies, who have all made similar decisions to avert a depression.
I know of no other opposition parties anywhere in the world who wish to pay down their debts while enriching the wealthiest of their own MPs families.
92 The city was never going to survive Lisbon. The centre of gravity of the EUSSR is the triangular area created by Paris, Bonn and Babylon and the financial capital of their new little empire will be based within or somewhere close to that triangle and certainly not on some rainy offshore provincial island.
Given it’ll be a compromise between France, Germany and the EUSSR and looking at a map i just bet myself a choccy biscuit that within 20 years most of what’s now the city of London will be in Luxembourg.
@@@
Leninists must be really kicking themselves watching this thinking they wasted their whole life.
Option A) Spend your whole political life standing around in the rain selling Socialist Worker waiting for the collapse of capitalism.
Option B) Hijack a non-marxist party, gain power, then repeatedly ram the economy into an iceberg until it finally sinks under the sea with all hands thereby creating your very own DIY crisis of capitalism while lining your personal pockets all the while.
I don’t think option B is what happened (apart from the pocket lining) - they really do believe that money grows on trees - but if i was a Leninist i’d be watching this and thinking f**k, that’s a much better method than standing round with a pile of soggy newspapers every weekend.
Incidentally if you know the sort of people involved you know the Obamassiah’s crew are exactly the same type of people and they’re highly likely to do the exact same thing in America over the next few years.
121. Alternatively you could look at the contribution the sector has made in the recent past to overall tax revenues. In financial year 2006/7 it was around £68 billion, or 14% of the total tax take….including a quarter of corporation tax….
TimBot back from the bunker briefing and seems to be as well briefed as Liam Byrne was on BBC2!
Vince is dismembering Labour banker tax on R5
131 - Exactly - we have been ridiculously over-reliant on it.
129. “95- Our debt levels aren’t out of kilter with other major economies, who have all made similar decisions to avert a depression.”
It’s not the current level that matters, it’s the trend, our debt is rocketing upwards, and this government shows no inclination to deal with that, even as the governor of the Bank of England warns them that the deficit must be dealt with ASAP.
More on possible GE timing,
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/thetorydiary/2009/12/tories-accelerate-planning-for-endmarch-election.html
134. Labour has had over twelve years to do something about it, and you want to give them five more?
136. They seem to be in the May/June camp.
136 - I can’t believe the Conservatives are running that cartoon.
139 - We know, we heard you the first 10 times you posted about it.
137 - No I don’t want to give them five more years. I think they need and deserve to lose the next election. The trouble is, the Tories don’t look like they are going to improve things.
so let me get this right ,because we are over reliant on a certian area for our earnings you want to get rid of it (or downscale it?)
Thats a bit like saying my household income is overly reliant on one job so I should look to work less hours but with no clue beyond a vaugue dream as how to fill the hours released
134. Perhaps you think the Swiss should close down their financial sector, too, to prevent becoming ‘over-reliant’ on it? Or perhaps the Germans should cut their engineering industry down to prevent being ‘over-reliant’ on it?
Osborne gave a good response to the Pre-Budget-Report - on a par with his previous barn-storming performance last time. Perhaps his jibes about Labour governments always running out of money and consistently bringing the country to the edge of bankruptcy before they are booted out, could have been even more effective by spelling it out with pointed references to the likes of Dennis Healey and Roy Jenkins and the hash they made of the economy.
So you are perfectly content for every family in the country to be saddled with a debt in excess of 23k to support the mismanagement of the countries finances?
Fine we know where you stand with your faux outrage over IHT when you have no problem with even the poorest in the country in hock for over 23k.
142 - No I want us to be less reliant on it. I would love one of our major parties to put forward policies that would help us do this. None of them have though.
The only thing I can say is that at least we’re not Ireland.
Bet most Scots also thank their lucky stars that they aren’t living in a ’small, successful nation’ too.
“James Landale writes: The freeze in inheritance tax threshold at £325,000 is not quite what it seems. Yes, the government will not raise it to £350,000. But it will allow couples to pool the total to £650,000. For some couples - and more importantly their children - that is quite a tax cut. So Labour is not quite as opposed to cutting IHT as is sometimes likes to make out.”
So Labour is not quite as opposed to cutting IHT as is sometimes likes to make out”
Tim?
145 - If the Tories introduce their IHT changes, of course, the poorest families will be in hock for even more.
136 - I can’t believe the Conservatives are running that cartoon.
by tim December 9th, 2009 at 4:31 pm
the tories aren’t, as you well know. Conhome are running it, not even remotely the same thing.
143 - I am not that interested in Switzerland, but I note that Germany is doing a lot better than we are currently and has out-performed us pretty continuously for the last 50 years or so. I think a German-style economy would be great.
‘English families lose £4.5bn a year to Scotland’
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1234305/English-families-lose-4-5bn-year-Scotland.html#ixzz0ZBlSaa8e
Mike S
That’s a fantastic bet. Effectively betting on the tories forming a government, at better odds than betting on them forming a government.
Thanks for the tip, I’m on.
148 - I’ve no issues with IHT at those levels, I’d get rid of it altogether and have a £200k allowance for each recipient pwersonally.
Osbore wishes however to concentrate the huge tax cuts on those inheriting between £650,000 and £2 Million.
I wonder if he did the neighbour test.
“OK hands up all those who want £500,000″
“Thats unanimous then - I declare the Notting Hill Residents Association meeting closed - back to Daves for a drink”
145 - If the Tories introduce their IHT changes, of course, the poorest families will be in hock for even more.
by Southam Observer December 9th, 2009 at 4:36 pm
If you accept which I don’t that the Tories would have mismanaged the economy as badly as the current clowns have.
If anyone fancies seeing what a trillion poinds would actually look
like stacked up I have found a good illustration and posted it on my blog.
The amounts we are talking about are utterly mind-boggling. Getting my head round the difference between a million, a billion and a trillion pounds is impossible without help.
A billion pounds is a lot; but we will be spending that every week just on the interest on the national debt by 2014 - if we are lucky and rates stay low.
A trillion is a million, million. One, followed by twelve zeros.
153 - It also depends on Dave appointing him, and the Parliamentary Commissioner clearing him on his mortgage.
143: I think a German-style economy would be great.
two points:
1. have you lived there?
2. most of their banks (ex. possibilty, DB) are either bust or surviving on federal/land support. They are in may ways worse off than ours.
156 - Err, perhaps you meant to do it in pounds rather than Dollars?
153 - Stuart I believe there is a planned review with a needs test coming up, which could cut Scotland’s money but increase Wales’s income. I suspect that if that comes to pass then there will be more fiscal responsibility transferred to Scotland from Westminster if there is a Tory govt. i would have thought that is why the Tories are hoping to slow down the Calman response.
113 - SO: “It’s our reliance on the financial sector that has got us into this mess in the first place. Our economy is far too dependent on it.”
No. It’s our governmenmt spending more money than it receives year after year that has got us into this mess.
*** Betting Gloat [to balance my Betting Moan earlier] ***
Excellent! The Irish have come good, even if Darling hasn’t. ‘No change to excise on tobacco due to the increases on cigarette smuggling’, as I tipped a couple of weeks ago. (You could get 13/2 on this from Boyle Sports yesterday).
Six million dollars of stimulus money was used to save the jobs of three employees… who work for Hillary Clinton’s pollster, Mark Penn:
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1209/30389.html
Only two million dollars per job saved, and for a political crony at that! What a bargain for the taxpayers… Once again, the campaign commercials for the mid-terms are writing themselves.
“I’ve no issues with IHT at those levels”
How odd. After all, on your own logic, that’s a tax cut for millionaires.
re 154. You have made the same point many times today. Please think of something original.
Southam Observer,
I agree that we need to grow other sectors that produce things or offer services that people, especially in other countries, want to pay for. However, HMG has an appalling record in this respect and planned political economies don’t work. Governments can destroy wealth creating industries (and this one has done its fair share) but cannot make them.
As I recall you are, or at least were, an executive in a successful Internet based company with most of its earnings coming from Europe and the USA. So presumably you have some insight into how HMG can provide the playing field in which wealth creating companies can thrive. How about sharing your thoughts in this respect?
158 - I have not lived there, but have visited many times for long periods. Still I would be very interested in an argument seeking to show the Germans are worse off then we are.
Your point 2 kind of makes my point for me, doesn’t it? Germany is not over-reliant on its finance sector for its prosperity.
Mind you not much time, thats why they delayed the PBR as parliament buggers off in a weeks time, comes back for 1 month, then breaks up for recess in Feb for 2 weeks, totally deliberate, it will be march 25th.
Christmas
16 December 2009 to
5 January 2010
Half Term
10 February 2010
22 February 2010
Also i notice that the Commons have not put any recess date in for easter, unusual, which kind of proves my point. its gonna be March 25th.
I think it would be prudent, once again, to highlight just a couple of the pledges made a decade ago and take a moment to reflect on how on earth we have ended up in this historic swamp-of-sh*t-mess we find ourseveles wading through.
” I will not allow house prices to get out of control and put at risk the sustainability of the future”. - Mr Gordon Brown (1997 Budget Speech).
He also said that he did not want a return to ”instability, speculation and negative equity” of the 1980’s and 1990’s.
Nailed those pledges then Gordon didn’t you?…
If it wasn’t for those pesky Americians eh?
157
Exactly, fantastic bet.
Anyone who hasn’t seen Mike’s tip at 125, it’s on the hills website. Won’t last long on Hills in my experience of them.
154. “148 - I’ve no issues with IHT at those levels, I’d get rid of it altogether and have a £200k allowance for each recipient pwersonally.”
So a person with a million pound estate could leave it to five people and no tax would be paid?
166: He doesn’t have any other point. Just lines direct from the bunker.
Would be a good way to encourage millionaires to have lots of kids. bad for c02 emmissions though.
155: A most stupid plan…simply give 200k to your wifes, children, childrens children, brothers, cousins etc etc.
Oh look my friend has 3 children, and I have 3 children…lets give 600k to them, and he can give 600k to my children.
I don’t think you’re very bright on economics tim.
Will Hutton enteres the poll predicting game. He believes today’s PBR is worth 2 points on the polls for Labour.
171 - Yes.
Spread the wealth around.
174 - As I say, get rid of IHT and tax income.
171. That would be fab.
My folks, for example, would leave their kids £200k each, plus the spouses would get another £200k each. That’s £1.2million right there, and that’s before the grandchildren get their look-in.
*****Betting post******Another great bet from William Hill.
You can get 3/1 that the election will be BEFORE May 6
97, 100 Yes, A March 2010 GE looks great value for the reasons stated, especially at PP’s generous odds of 6/1, compared with Ladbrokes’ 4/1.
I doubt whether that price will be around tomorrow.
Someone tapping into their keyboard, not a million miles from where I’m sitting, backed March 2010 at 25/1 a few months ago.
Modesty prevents…..
158. The Germans do build a lot of decent cars, though, just like we used to do. Building cars and running banks are not incompatible. If there were more manufacturing jobs there would be fewer unemployed working class people. They’re not going to retrain as bankers.
166 - I have to be honest and say we have not really been affected by what’s been happening in the wider economy I think we are just too niche and concentrate on an area which is of increasing importance globally, so people prioritise buying our products over other things..
I do agree that governments cannot mandate economies. What they have to do is create the right environment for economies to grow. I would like to see a much greater role for venture capital and private equity, and a rethink of bankruptcy laws - so there is less risk in risk taking. WE also need continued high investment in all levels of education (but with far fewer people going to university) and infrastructure with a proper focus on science and engineering so that the UK becomes a source of high-quality, R&D-based products that other countries cannot produce. None of it is brain surgery, but it will all take a very long time to do.
175 - Can’t be long before they wheel out Blanchflower again…
I wish people woudl stop talking about Inheritence tax as though it matters . It contributes about 1% of revenues (I believe?) -the only reason people like to talk about it is either through class war issues or (on the other end) personal gain. It has very little to do with balancing the deficit
So you’re a fan of huge tax cuts for people with friends and half a brain?
Clearly dim-tim is manning the desk this evening.
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/5619858/a-whole-batch-of-brownies.thtml
“Will Hutton enteres the poll predicting game. He believes today’s PBR is worth 2 points on the polls for Labour.”
Did he say why?
77. James A said in relation to bashing bankers: “Now Labour are bashing one of the biggest wealth creators in the country and the provider of 25% of tax receipts.”
Those tax receipts were based on profits that were little more than a mirage!
What do you think much of the sharp rise in the budget deficit is actually down to?
You and your fellow blinkered Tory brethren forget that the cash raised by borrowing means we own some of the major so-called “wealth creating” banks in this country.
That follows a financial crash caused by pals of the Tories in the City that has cost this country nearly £1 trillion!
Some weath creation!
30 years of self-indulgent free market lunacy has not created any wealth at all. We’re back where we started before Thatch clumsily took her axe to this country’s fine industrial heritage.
Only now we haven’t got any sort of substantial industry worthy of the name to pullus out of this conservative inspired mess.
179 Mike - March at 6/1 looks better value than pre May at 3/1. April would seem daft with the locals just 3 weeks later and Jan-Feb is still winter.
Irish Finance Minister, Budget Statement:
WHY BORROWING MORE IS NOT THE ANSWER
Some have argued we should continue to borrow and wait for the economy to grow again before tackling the budget deficit. There are three reasons why this is not a viable proposition.
o First, we know from the 1980s how large deficits, left unchecked, can lead to a dangerous spiral of mounting debt and ever increasing interest payments. Never again should we return to a position where all of our income taxes go to pay interest on the national debt.
o Second, international debt markets have become more crowded and more fragile. If lenders were to lose faith in our ability to restore order to the public finances, the consequences for our economic wellbeing would be profound.
o Third, only decisive action will restore confidence. Consumers will only start to spend and business owners will only invest and create jobs if they believe we are tackling our deficit problem now.
In our everyday lives we do not borrow to pay for our household bills. We cut back and seek to live within our means.
The same strictures apply at national level. Borrowing hundreds of millions a week to pay for day to day spending is just not on. Stabilising the deficit is the next key milestone in our plan to deliver economic recovery for this country.
http://content.tv3.ie/documents/09/full_speech.pdf
Amen to that.
186 - “Between 2007 and 2014, we will have added more than a trillion pounds to the national debt.”
And that is using Darlings Fantasy Figures!
Ah, BenM. Will you tell us how the Conservatives were to blame for the Iraq war too?
189 - I was happy to take 25/1 for a March election some time back. I see no value in 6/1 for March or 3/1 for a pre 6 May election date.
189 - I’d agree with that, 3/1 pre May is very poor value.
Re: 188 - Has BenM been cryogenically frozen for the past twelve years and presumably recently thawed out due to global warming?
195. Agree - its May or later.
170. I can’t see the bet Mike flagged up on the Hills website - where is it?
193 There are now probably only 2 GE options, March or May and 6/1 looks like value to me in a two horse race.
On Paddy Power you can get 6/1 for March and 11/1 for April. Combining the two at a 2:1 ratio gives much better odds than the Hills 3/1.
187 - On Sky he said it was a very clever document that would help boost the economy and reconfigure it. Called for a reduction in the importance of the City and if necessary actually shrinking it.
On the City I do think it’s importance is too large to the UK economy but as a major supplier to the Exchequer we shouldn’t kill the goose that lays the golden egg. We just need to get the rest of the economic growth to run higher for a while.
As to car manufacture I actually believe that we make (or at least made before the depression/recession) more than when we had British Leyland. The work that went into bringing Toyota & Nissan to the UK really helped boost that level. It shows that if you set the right conditions and target the right manufacturing sectors you can do manufacturing in this country. I know from my family experience that you could grow manufacturing right through the 80s and become world-leaders.
199. Not if the horse has ducked the last 3 races - 2007,2008 and 2009 !
I understand AD did well. Perhaps there was a little electioneering but he is a politician. Hung parliament still favourite but I wouldn’t rule anything out.
198 Look at William Hill’s Press Office, you then have to telephone their internet number - hard work, but it can pay dividends!
Tough 2010 Irish budget unveiled
Mr Lenihan announced savings in 2010 of:
• 1bn euros on the public sector pay bill
• 760m euros on social welfare
• 980m euros on day-to-day spending programmes
• 960m euros on investment projects.
But he said the pay cuts in the public sector would not apply to existing public service pensioners.
He also reduced the rates of child benefit by 16 euros per month, bringing the lower rate to 150 euros per month and the higher rate to 187 euros per month.
And he introduced a carbon tax, equivalent to 15 euros per tonne.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8402551.stm
Will be interesting to see how their performance compares with ours.
198/204
It was on the site under GE specials 15 mins ago, but gone now. That’s William Hill for ya.
205
Lenihan seeking redemption by being honest. Darling should have given him a call.
Here’s a picture of Labour in 2010:
http://www.historexagents.com/images/hi/30381.jpg
193. David - I think Iraq was formed in 1932 when Ramsay MacDonald was in power. So that can be blamed on the Labour Party!
Tony Travers has picked up that the local authorities are going to be bearing most of the spending cuts:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/dec/09/councils-spending-cuts-pre-budget-report
He raises the interesting point of who the public will blame: the central government or the town hall? With the Tories now the party of government in the local arena, this could affect the election timing. Leave it until May when budgets have been set and the government could point to the evil Tories. We’ve already seen it with the focus on Nottinghamshire CC (LabourList have also run this). Maybe the March election isn’t so sure from a political viewpoint?
WTF is going on over at Student loans?
The chaos engulfing the student finance system could spread to next year after officials were forced to postpone applications for grants and loans.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/6770934/Student-loans-hit-by-fresh-delay.html
171/174/176,
It is possible that Tim may be (from his own point of view) favoring “a most stupid plan”, but he has discussed this preference sufficiently often before that I am inclined to believe that he is in good faith and prepared to live with the consequences. There appears already to be a bias towards extended families in the tax system in that the prohibition on parents’ money accruing investment income tax-free in their children’s hands is avoidable by siblings gifting money to each other’s children (caution: IANATL).
Where Tim’s proposal could be extended is treating the lifetime allowance for taxation of inherited wealth as fungible with the lifetime pension allowance introduced by Gordon Brown on pension funds. This would offer a path to a unified comprehensive capital tax (CCT) which could - given a single, sufficiently high, life-time allowance - provide a politically feasible means of replacing stamp duty by taxation of capital gains on owner-occupied housing.
I wonder if the local elections will be brought forward to March 25th if the general election is to be on that day? Because otherwise we can look forward to an absolutely dismal turnout on May 6th for those local elections which isn’t a good thing for democracy.
If it is March 25th for the GE, I would guess the campaign will begin on about February 24th which is in
11 weeks time.
BenM
“That follows a financial crash caused by pals of the Tories in the City that has cost this country nearly £1 trillion!”
Have a look at the gentlemen who were in charge of the banks that collapsed. Then have a look at who knighted them.
Fred Godwin, knighted by Brown for services to banking.
189. I thought about rebutting your silly ignorant little rant, and then thought, why bother? But i couldnt resist pointing out little things like, Labour has become the party of the City and big business, or that the credit bubble is about eight to nine years old, not thirty years, or that in eighteen tory years, manufacturing dropped from 25% of gdp to 22.5%, and under labours twelve years it has gone from 22.5% to 12%.
Its all margaret thatchers fault, she made this government and the american one screw up the banking regulation, feed a property bubble and she personally wrapped up piles of dodgy credit and hand delivered it to the bankers in northern rock and rbs.
157. Very disappointing to see on your blog you’ve done a U-turn on fox-hunting Marcus.
There is a belief in the Conservative Party - which you seem to have fallen hook, line and sinker for - that left-wing social reforms aren’t reversible. So we simply surrender to Labour on laws which they’ve passed during their time in office and shrug our shoulders as if we can’t do anything about it.
You say “now we have a ban I would not vote to abolish it”.
Why not? If a free vote came up and the law is wrong why vote to abolish it?
If you don’t support repeal because you think it’d make Conservatives look anachronistic then that’s rather spineless. If you are ideologically opposed to its repeal - which you certainly weren’t a year or two ago - then you’re not a Conservative PPC I could vote for.
If I want prejudice, suppression of liberty and abolition of our traditions I can vote Lib-Dem/Labour thank you very much.
(as you can tell I’m very disappointed in you Marcus)
“On Sky he said it was a very clever document that would help boost the economy and reconfigure it”
Er, really? How will it reconfigure the economy? Will we be living off the bingo sector instead?
211. Not without primary legislation.
212 pals of the tories in the city , dear oh dear . labour really have lost it. they knighted and honoured these massive Labour city donors! Lord Myners & others.
215 - Goodness knows. They put him up against Fraser Nelson. I see Hammond is out and about today and not Osborne. There seems to be two key mid-term political aims from this budget with regards to the Tories. Pushing the pain onto the town halls (see my Guardian link at 209) and trying to force them to list specifics. They can then attack the cuts as X million teachers etc…etc… I actually think we will get a May election with a simple continuation finance bill in March…
Casino - there was not a LD party whip on the vote on banning fox hunting and a good number of the party’s MPs opposed it.
Since the Sun changed sides they’ve done Labour more good than almost any other outlet.
DAVID CAMERON should be a penalty taker for England with the amount of open goals he is missing.
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/sun_talk/gauntysblog/2765069/Cameron-for-England.html
219. “I actually think we will get a May election with a simple continuation finance bill in March…”
I’m not convinced on today’s performance the bond markets and ratings agencies will wait that long
Intersting read from bloomberg.com
Dec. 9 (Bloomberg) — Billionaire investor George Soros, who helped push the U.K. out of the European Exchange Rate Mechanism in 1992, said France and Germany would like to see London’s financial-services industry “sink.”
“There is thinking in continental Europe that would like to rein in London and see London sink,” Soros, 79, said today at a conference organized by the London School of Economics. “There is this Franco-German alliance, I nearly said conspiracy, an alliance or common ground.”
The European Union is considering proposals that have been criticized in the U.K. financial community as undermining London’s competitive position as a global money center. France and the U.K. have been divided over the Nov. 27 appointment of Michel Barnier, an ally of French President Nicolas Sarkozy, as the EU’s new finance chief. Sarkozy and British Prime Minister Gordon Brown are to meet tomorrow in Brussels.
221 – When OGH waved the yellow card in your direction young Tim, I think he was expecting a rather more substantial line of come back than that childish nonsense.
Cameron FULL OF WIN on expenses: Brown’s position at PMQ’s has been overruled after discussions with amongst others The Speaker and Hapless Harriet.
So now we will get ful details. So say SKY.
220. Goupillion - fair point. I was basing my judgement on the majority of their MPs but I would always judge a Lib Dem candidate on their record.
There are only three things in the past that have stopped me from considering voting Lib-Dem as an alternative to Conservative:
(1) Europe (most importantly)
(2) Charles Kennedy (he was a socialist)
(3) Immigration (open borders are naive)
Were the Lib-Dems lead by orange bookers who (genuinely) believed in the primacy of British Democracy and sensible immigration controls I would seriously consider giving them my vote.
In Germany I’d vote FDP.
222 - If the rating change comes I think it would be early in the new year. If the GDP figures look on target we might just squeeze through. If they don’t then I think they will go loud rapidly that we need cuts now or loose it. Then it probably won’t matter when Labour go to the polls. I do think Labour would like to get lots of local cuts to shout at how nasty the Tories are. Watch LabourList - they are regularly putting articles up about this. Budgets are not set until March I believe, so they would need to be later on with the election.
On another topic, there is a possibly a £2.5bn defence cut hidden away according to Tory Rascal:
http://toryrascal.com/2009/12/09/pre-budget-report-the-defence-cut/
Now who is claiming Dave fluffed PMQs?
Government have just announced climb down on recent MPs’ expenses due to be published tomorrow. Cameron questioned why the figures were due to be published in aggregrate. Government and HoC Committee will now publish individual totals for each MP.
Just need BBC QT tomorrow to focus on density of troop deployment in Helmand Province for Dave to win on the first two issues he raised at PMQs.
Put me in the March election column.
214. But you don’t understand! Right until May 3rd 1979 Britain was a land of milk and honey with no economic or social problems, and the nasty, horrible Thatcher got in and ruined everything!
221 Who’d have though it? TIMBOT is a fan of Jon Gaunt. Wonders will never cease.
I notice the BBC line is that Darling has reassured the city, when they actually went and interviewed someone from the city he said he was not at all reassured and that he was deeply concerned about the UKs credit rating.
226
I’d vote FDP as well if I were German.
And Labour have U-turned on the expenses totals. Goal to Dave.
229 me too. I cant see Darling wanting to have a budget. There are no toys to play with.
Casino Royale @ 215. I have never been on record as having supported a repeal of the hunting with dogs act. I always said that while I wouldn’t have voted to ban in the first place; I probably wouldn’t vote to return it, but would keep an open mind.
The pro hunting lobby made the mistake of over-hyping the damage a ban would cause and now lacks credibility in my view. I have done some research, and I have concluded that the sport is thriving without actually killing foxes. I just can’t see the point of bringing it back now.
Most laws represent a ban on someone doing something, the balance has to be there between freedom and responsibility.
This issue is about what is acceptable to most people, I am completely convinced that hunting with dogs is no longer acceptable to the majority of voters in my constituency, and in the country.
229. I’ve been saying May 6th for 2 years and I’m not going to change my mind!
228 - Fair play to Dave, he shoots he scores.
But like Michael Owen last night, can he recover his pace or is it a one off?
final thought: how Mr. Brown must rue his decision in the first week of 2007 to duck out of an election then? A fourth victory was there for the taking. He allowed the initiative to move away and Labour has been on the back foot ever since.
Hmmm I may be wrong here Mike, (never I hear you say) but I seem to remember that when I expressed such a view, you told me that you thought the Tories would have still won.
Although I think that Labour is looking a little more sure footed recently. DC looking a little jaded, and unsure of himself, the media seem to be picking this up too.
Is he an 18 mile marathon runner I wonder, got the kit and the shoes, the go-faster haircut, but come the 18 mile mark, starts to fade.
Suspected Albanian gangster arrested Monday night outside Blairs house; loaded pistol with silencer found nearby. SKY
Oo-er….
Sky: “Albanian gangster” with loaded pistol arrested outside Tony Blair’s London home…
238 And just how far down the 26 mile course do you think Gordon is going to get?
The starting pistol hasn’t been fired yet.
202 The Ghost of Harry Flashman
So form for Gordo is R-R-R.
I predict a U for his only outing in 2010.
Re 148. I don’t see what will stop us from going the same way as Ireland. We may be a bigger economy & able to adjust our interest rates to suit ourselves, but is that going to be enough?
Surprising just how quickly the PBR has fallen apart, but I guess there are more gems to come…
The Treasury have just banned transcripts of the all-important briefing they give to journalists after the budget. Coffee House broke the mould after the April budget by producing the first-ever transcript – releasing to the public the spin which journalists are given in the precious few hours they have to write up the Budget. This exposed how they tried to mislead journalists into saying that there were no spending cuts. In fact there were cuts of 7 percent, but Fleet St didn’t notice because the Treasury misled people by talking about “current spending” - which is, of course, a subset of total spending. And they substituted this for “spending” - successfully misleading the press and, by extension, the public.
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/5620128/the-publics-right-to-know.thtml
239 - Thats just the politics of Enver
226. Casino - personally I am not a 100% signed up europhile but I do see the sense in being a prominent member of the EU from the economic point of view. If there is to be an attack on the City of London by Franco German interests I am sure we will be much more able to defend our interests by being an opinion leader within the EU.
Are you happy with Clegg so far - I was and still am a Huhne supporter but IMO he is improving to say the least.
Here is the LD immigration policy:
http://www.libdems.org.uk/siteFiles/resources/PDF/Policy%20Briefing%20Immigration.pdf
What do you disagree with?
218.
Cameron is doing and saying as little as he can in the way he attacks Brown. He wants Brown cemented in position until January, after which, it will be near impossible to oust Brown.
Come January the Tories will be in election mode and firing on all cylinders!
242
Worth noting that he was favourite in the first race only
235 Marcus. May I say I support your decision to inform your constituents of this change of mind. Whilst I wouldn’t have voted for a ban (I dislike bans on principle) this is a most tricky decision for you and I support your honesty in coming out with your decision before the election.
FDP for me too - excellent Jacobite tendencies !!
Now that’s just UNLUCKY!!!
guidofawkes
He talks about them in PMQs and RT @guydrean: S&P just downgraded Spain. The curse of Jonah!
245 tim - ‘The Ratners version of wageslave’.
244 I
248 How do you get “R” in a walkover???
244 I guess that post explains Robinson’s report.
Though what explains my computer’s over-senstivity I can’t say. I will ask the dog that is half reclining on it, to see if it has any idea.
250. …cont.
Spain has failed to escape a wave of sovereign debt warnings from international ratings agencies that have roiled financial markets this week, despite the government’s serious efforts to rein in a runaway budget deficit.
Standard & Poor’s Corp. Wednesday lowered its ratings outlook on Spain to negative, saying the country will probably see “significantly lower” gross domestic product growth and “persistently high fiscal deficits relative to peers over the medium term.”
http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20091209-710479.html
AnneJGP
We can issue sovereign debt in our own currency unlike Ireland who have to issue in Euro and aren’t allowed to Quantitive Ease like us. Therefor we can keep gilt repayment interest low for a longer period which if we get a large enough increase in growth will stop things spiralling out of control.
Typical BBC bias in the news website main headline “Darling raises National Insurance” - it should, of course, read “Darling raises National Insurance again”
252 SallyC. Another outstanding contribution !!
235 Marcus, good for you. Your views on hunting mirror mine. I felt the pro-hunting lobby arguments had no validity at the time; the hyperbole of “the end of the rural way of life” has been shown to be total toss.
247
Come January the Tories will be in election mode and firing on all cylinders!
Wow! I can’t wait to see Eric Pickles firing on all four cylinders, a joy to behold.
254 – “I guess that post explains Robinson’s report”
I was thinking the same thing, Toenail’s reporting bares no relation to the actual speech made . .and he is being ripped to shreds on his ‘blog’ as a result.
252 A very Zen post.
[More sense in that post that all 13,908 of tim's - just ask my dog].
249. JackW. “FDP for me too - excellent Jacobite tendencies !!”
Don’t bet on that. I reckon that they would support those Hannoverian upstarts - they are fellow Germans after all!
245. Tim - obviously a Hodja bodja!
261
Oh dear, did he pop off for lunch thinking he knew it all..
250 - In fairness, he was talking Spain down rather than talking them up at PMQs. In that sense, it’s a rare hit.
260 Eric’s lovely. His engine purrs rather than fires.
Can’t see why Dave should criticise, he’s done ok.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1234492/Pre-Budget-Report-2009-Homeowners-900-tax-free-wind-turbine-house.html
Sally C… you have been outdone by comment 17 on Nick Robinson’s Blog
“17. At 5:06pm on 09 Dec 2009, Joepublic wrote:
Complain about this comment
263 Disraeli. FDP not too popular in Hanover !!
I’m expecting a Jacobite coup fairly soon …. hope you got your betting slip handy !!
To analyse the 100-150 targets and how this PBR will affect them, you would need to know the demographic profiles. This NI increase is going to hit anyone over £20,000 (about 10million) but not affect another 10million. I notice from the Guardian that the Tories are going to work hardest to avoid the NI increase. I think this is going to be the Tories tax dividing line. A tax on work etc… If there are enough people in the £20,000+ band who are worried about how they can afford things, then if Osborne & Cameron can drive home the 1% increase then I think it could be a Tory positive. If the lowest-paid feel they have been looked after and they are sufficient in number then some of the seats, then if they go back to Labour it could help in a few of those marginals.
268 - No he hasn’t.
Dave had to take his wind turbine back becuase his house was “in a dip”.
Damn tricky that Notting Hill name business.
268.Glad someone has.
269 He’s speechless. Who can blame him.
235. No Marcus. I think you are trying to have it both ways - or trying to run with the hares and chase with the hounds (haha)
Your position - as outlined in your post there - is politically brilliant. You can pretend to be both pro and anti without upsetting anyone.
However, it is also spineless.
You’re trying to worm out of it by claiming you “weren’t on record”. So what? Look, I’m not a journalist or politician. I’m not interested if you made an “official” statement. I know what your views were.
I read posts here where you talked about how ridiculous the ban was because if people were genuinely concerned about animal welfare they’d ban Halal butchery. You stated it was inconsistent and a class based piece of spite.
You very clearly gave the impression you thought this was a bad law which you didn’t support.
And it is. Bad laws should be repealed. Conservatives should be opposed to letting bad laws remain on the statue books. If it was wrong to ban it then it is right to repeal it if a vote comes up. If not then your position was dishonest and misleading in the first place.
Most people in your constituency don’t know the first thing about hunting. It is pure ignorance. They probably believed the fox was ripped to pieces by dogs or something.
Have any ever been on a hunt?
“This issue is about what is acceptable to most people”
People who are fundamentally ignorant. An absurd point. Basing policy on that leads to the simple tyranny of the majority. I don’t doubt the majority of people in the country support a ban - they’d probably support banned g@ys from adopting children and bringing back the rope for paedophiles too - but it doesn’t mean it’s right. You should be willing to explain the truth to those who are ignorant not following it.
Read these:
http://www.supportfoxhunting.co.uk/lacs_thetruth.shtml
http://www.supportfoxhunting.co.uk/what_the_experts_say.shtml
You also said that it isn’t working – therefore it doesn’t matter. Well, if it isn’t working then it’s a pointless piece of legislation and a waste of police and the courts time isn’t it? So, it should be repealed. In any event, it’s still making a difference. Although people are still going out and “hunting” but in defiance of the ban not because of it. They’re simply making do. Doing the best they can. The whole atmosphere of the hunt has been ruined by this pernicious piece of legislation and foxes still have to be shot (and maimed) in their thousands.
It must go.
Very, very disappointed in you indeed Marcus. I could no longer support for you on this basis. Not just on this particular issue but because it suggests you could be fickle on others. A hostage to public opinion. Someone who wasn’t willing to take the tough decisions and go against the grain and do the right thing. Because it might be unpopular.
A typical politician in other words.
I’m sorry Marcus. I expect this behaviour from the Left but I expected much better from you as a fellow Conservative.
I need to know a Conservative MP would be different. Your arguments just remind me of a Conservative Nick Palmer.
But why would you care? I don’t live in your constituency. I couldn’t vote for you anyway.
I’m just a fellow party member. No-one important.
I wonder how bad things would have to get for the Conservatives to start urging people “Vote Labour!”
Nick Robinson is stupid.
I don’t think he’s partisan, just stupid and lazy. He parrots the last talking point someone’s fed him.
What a plonker.
WSJ says March
And the rest? It seems obvious that it was aimed at an election earlier than May, with polling day probably on March 25th. In this scenario Brown would ask the Queen for a dissolution after parliament returns from its two week recess on Monday 22nd of February. That would lead into a four week and a bit campaign.
…
A March 25th election date would also help Labour on two fronts. The party machine is short of money, and would be better getting on with a short and sharp campaign. And the big tax rises - the increases in NI and the introduction of the 50p rate - won’t kick-in until April. The Tories might say, during a March campaign, that this means there’s pain ahead, but Labour will respond by asking what they would do instead.
It all points to March the 25th.
http://blogs.wsj.com/iainmartin/2009/12/09/uk-general-election-looks-set-for-march-25th/
Pre-Budget Report: Darling unveils stealth tax and public sector pay cap.
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/pbr/article6950140.ece
Ed Balls on R5 now - Good for the Tories…
Someone has woken up Sir Michael, check his footnote! How come he didn’t realise that himself.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/blog/2009/dec/09/alistair-darling-treads-highwire-pbr
235
OooH Marcus you’ll upset the libertarians, I did once, but I think I got away with it.
Darling’s prediction of a 4.75% annual fall in GDP means that he is expecting qtr4 GDP will be in the range from +0.3% to -0.2%.
As this is the quarter with the maximum stimulus effect then things don’t look good do they.
Notice also that it is NI (ie employment tax) that has been increased again not income tax.
The significance of this is that if you’re part of a ‘hard working family’ and actually have a job you will pay more tax but if you don’t need to work thanks to having a large private income (Roger?, tim?) then you wont pay any extra tax.
Labour taxing the workers so that the already wealthy don’t have to pay more.
Anyone see a copy of the ES on the way home?
Alistair Darling’s tax bombshell will hit millions
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/article-23781875-alistair-darlings-pre-budget-report-tax-shock-for-middle-earners.do
Pre-budget report: Darling raises national insurance as he admits recession worse than predicted
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2009/dec/09/pre-budget-report-economic-growth
Ed Balls may cause dear old Peter to have a connery in a minute!
274
Not true, I once was surrounded by the hunt, while out walking in Cockington. They were very apologetic, and the dogs were charming.
280 That’s what they want you to be free to think.
235: Marcus Wood @ 17:42
“… I have done some research, and I have concluded that the sport is thriving without actually killing foxes…”
It maybe your research skills need updating, but the idea that hunting is going on without actually killing foxes is very far wide of the mark. The hunters and the police pretend that is the case, and that an odd fox is killed by accident, but pretence is pretence.
As an aside, I am not really sure one should refer to fox hunting as a sport.
The reason why the present law should be repealed is that it is unenforceable and, therefore, brings the Law into disrepute (ditto Cannabis etc.). If you believe that hunting is unacceptable then campaign to have it banned completely and accept the down-sides, but please don’t pretend the present half-a*sed compromise doesn’t involve the killing of foxes by hounds.
P.S. Have you ever visited an abattoir?
I am not sure many people will have noticed an EU document which came out earlier this month. This is the European Council’s statement regarding the UK excessive deficit under the Mastricht rules. The document is available by going to the Economic and Monetary Affairs directorate website, selecting “Find document” and choosing UK. Sorry I can not link to it at present as I am on my mobile.
The UK has been in the excessive deficit procedure since BEFORE the economic downturn started. So much for being best placed etc.
The latest recomendation is that the deficit should be cut in 2010/2011 and then harder in future years.
Today Darling announced effectively a no change budget from a defecit perspective.
Has Darling ignored his EU obligations?
Casino Royale @ 274
Agreed wholeheartedly.
Marcus’s attitude is one that allows Labour to benefit from the ratchet effect. All social change they introduce becomes cemented in if subsequent governments are afraid to lift the ratchet and repeal and repeal and repeal.
Please can we not get caught up in hunting today - unless Darling is the fox.
Peter Allen and Balls having a right go at each other on R5L. Starts at around 6.10pm…
Ed Balls playing the man beautifully and slating Peter Allen … this isn’t a bust by the way - no boom and bust here..
Ed Balls - the gift that keeps on giving….
Peter Allen just caught saying off mike “he’s lying”….
So have I got this right - anyone in the public sector who earns £20,000 or more would have got a 1% salary increase - but that will be taken by the NI increase. So a net pay freeze. Except, when inflation takes off in the New Year, these folk all face the prospect of a fall in their standard of living, linked to that inflation rate. Is that broadly right?
293 Yes Carol. You’ve got your numbers right.
289. I can’t believe it. In fact, I’m actually quite upset about it.
I thought someone like Marcus would be the last person to say something like this
268 coldstone you have today pwned yourself for all time. You were in fine voice on the last thread but one when nothing was happening.
Then we had the year’s longest thread and one of the most important, covering PMQs and PBR, and you said nothing. Nothing. Not one post. No contribution at all.
Now here you are again.
It would be trite and untrue to say that “you don’t like it up you”. The situation is different, and sadder: You can’t even tell whether it is up you or not until you have heard from the bunker.
I don’t understand why you are on this site given that 99% of what is said is over your head. I would recommend daytime Bingo as an alternative pursuit for you, and clearly offering value after the Chancellor’s foresighted and statesmanlike provisions this afternoon. (Get tim to explain that last bit).
246. G0upilli0n - I fear there is far too much of a gap between the Lib-dems and me at the moment!
You won’t be signing me up anytime soon
There are far too many SDPtypes and left1es like Vince C@ble and M1ng C@mpbell. Chris Huhne is the most europh1le man I’ve ever met. And I absolutely h@te Charles Kennedy.
A party favouring low-taxes, civ1l liberties and r0bustly patri0tic with people like Mark 0aten, Lemb1t 0pik and maybe David Laws at the forefront could have changed my vote.
In other words, a bit like the old Liberal Party.
285: coldstone @ 18:12
“Not true, I once was surrounded by the hunt, while out walking in Cockington. They were very apologetic, and the dogs were charming.”
Dogs? Dogs? F***ing Dogs? They are hounds! Dear God!
*Wanders off mumbling”
294. I wonder how tomorrow’s headlines “Darling attacks middle classes” are going to play alongside “Taxpayer pays for Hattie’s new Camera on Holiday”?
299 and Gordon’s £500 summer house work tup north whilst he lives in a grace and favour home (I think that was it)
300. A summer house. In Queensferry. It’s bl**dy freezing! Somebody is having a laugh…
Right - I’m off for the night.
Not a good day - but you live and learn I guess.
Casino.
The anti-hunt brigade have been targetting Tory PPCs who would/might vote to repeal the ban. They have been bombarded with emails threatened to campaign against them at the next GE. For the most part have decided not to open their mouths on the subject.
If I was to take a wild guess I would suggest most aren’t especially motivated by the issue [believing we have bigger problems] but would vote to repeal, should the opportunity arise.
Brownies anyone?
So Alistair Darling today repeated the same trick he used in April’s Budget – referring only to rising “current spending”, so as to hide the full extent of Labour’s spending cuts. Current spending is only one component of total spending, and when you add in some of the other components – as we have done in the table below – the cuts become clearer. The table shows that next year is the last year of any real rise in spending. From 2011, spending either falls or flattens out.
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/5620433/the-end-of-spending.thtml
277. It’s worth noting that Labour might like a 25 March polling day because many students would be on vacation. That would almost certainly help Labour’s chances in university-city fights with the Lib Dems (e.g. Leeds, Sheffield, Newcastle, Cambridge, and Oxford).
I’m hoping for 6 May.
289 Not everything that Labour has done in the past 12 years needs to be dug up.
305 Add Durham to that list.
The Mail seems to be getting tetchier. Top Story:
‘Darling’s class war pre-budget hammers everyone earning over £20,000 with 1% NI increase (but ducks spending cuts)
We can all see that this is a tired government on the way out. But isn’t it a little dispiriting that despite the monumental economic events of the last year, the official opposition have virtually nothing to offer? You’d think the idea of social democracy had collapsed in the last year the way the Tories are behaving. Even the bankers in the city aren’t too confident about a Tory government. And if they aren’t confident, who on earth will be?
They should have learnt a lesson from Sarko, who’s been handling all this pretty well. Still, I wouldn’t expect too much from a generation of politicians radicalised under Thatcher.
One thing about the Germans they do a better class of millionaire.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/money/tax/article6949251.ece
Read that Ashcroft.
So - I think we can call the end of Brown Bounce 17.
Time of death: 12.30 pm, December 9th, 2009
309, although I’d like to see more Tory policy there are sound reasons for it not being present. The Government refuses to give them access to the full figures, and they’d steal any decent policies prior to the elections (managing, doubtlessly, to twist and bugger them up).
Lord Ashcroft, the billionaire who has helped to bankroll the Tory party and is now its deputy chairman, is to leave most of his money – about £900m – to charity.
It could be the biggest charitable bequest made in Britain and will be shared between causes ranging from arresting criminals to assisting wounded servicemen and saving whales.
Ashcroft, 62, has already pumped £20m into Crimestoppers, the charity he started 20 years ago, and has spread a similar sum around various schools and colleges.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article4969301.ece
Nice try coldstone
If one looks back through the PB threads the last 3 months or so you will find that I have supported March 25th 2010 for some time.
I’ve even had a bet on it @ 5/1.
253 Marquee Mark
An uncontested bumper at a Musselburgh meeting simply doesn’t count.
312 Thats why tim has been so quiet.
316, maybe. Maybe he’s been struck by a flying nokia
312. It’s not just a question of policies. Any vision? Direction? Positioning? Everyone is still pretty confused. Up against a black hole PM they’re still not certain of an overall majority.
314 5/1? Paddy Power are offering 6/1 on a March GE.
306 “289 Not everything that Labour has done in the past 12 years needs to be dug up. ”
I rather think it does
318, Labour has grown a significant client state.
The Tories stand for taking more radical action, namely spending cuts, to reduce the deficit more quickly. They’ve also led on a number of major economic issues (called for recapitalisation before Labour did, talked about spending cuts before anyone else etc).
316 - Just watching TV.
General consensus that Osborne was a let down.
A Cameron exhortation at PMQ’s has resulted in victory.
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/Politics/MPs-Expenses-Commons-Agree-To-Publish-Total-Amount-Each-Member-Claimed/Article/200912215497024?lpos=Politics_Carousel_Region_0&lid=ARTICLE_15497024_MPs_Expenses%3A_Commons_Agree_To_Publish_Total_Amount_Each_Member_Claimed
Well done Dave! Today you earned your pay.
Could Ireland decide the next GE??
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/5620398/what-to-do-if-you-cant-tax-or-borrow-out-of-trouble.thtml
If Ireland grows even with big spending cuts it’ll completely undermine the PMs claim against the tories. However, if Ireland goes tits up, then labour will be able to tell the electorate that is what will happen under the tories.
319. I wus robbed!
321. That’s all short term crisis handling. What about the long term? Or do they just want our over-sized financial services sector to create another big asset bubble?
322 “316 - Just watching TV.
General consensus that Osborne was a let down.”
Didn’t see or hear him in action but now I KNOW he must have played a blinder!
324
At post 191 I copied an extract from the Irish Finance Minister’s speech, where he explains why cuts are necesssary in his opinion.
Justto say good on Marcus.
326, surely longterm crisis handling? It’ll take a number of Parliaments to get the deficit under control and into surplus.
327, Osborne had a very good day. tim’s just upset because he got hit in the face with a nokia.
Notice tim didnt say which tv. probably Labour Party closed circuit tv
327 - Osborne is the voter repellent equivalent of Balls.
If the Tories win the election and want to implement deep cuts early they’d be better off giving Hammond the job.
The fop Osborne will become the mosted hated man in Britain almost immediately.
329 ‘Divide and Rule’ Mr Palmer?
331 - The Tory supporter Letts said “Osboren didn’t really get anywhere”
332, no. Osborne’s not a warm, fuzzy figure, but he’s very astute and not ambitious. He does not, in other words, have Balls’ worst vices and is simply not in the same league as Balls’ own brand of voter repellant.
I suspect Brown will retain his crown as Most Loathed Briton for some time.
FPT - Tim has been at the fore-front of every campaign against George Osborne, if he actually believed him to be detrimental to his party’s fortunes, he would be the last to mention him.
Tim rather gives the game away and appears ridiculous in the process.
332 - Keep trying, he lead the ITV News portraying Labour as hitting the masses.
Is this the new bunker line because Darling is getting very bad press & tv coverage over his stealth tax on all who earn £20k or more.
329. Out of interest which do you hate more - hunting, or inquiries into Iraq?
335 - I’m sure he’ll poll badly for life and not just for Christmas
“Bears antics in Woods news network” Tim says Osborne failed…….
334 - In truth, I didn’t think that Osborne was particularly stellar in the Chamber. But, as so many others have pointed out on so many previous occasions, it is the sound-bites used on TV that count. And, at least on the BBC coverage, they chose his most effective lines.
‘mosted’ & now ‘Osboren’ - tim’s hit the bottle early today. Drowning your sorrows?
CCHQ just e mailed this out.
G Osborne’s response
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VZhy85BpbV4
336 - Its hardly a campaign.
I’d like Hague Grayling and Osborne on TV all the time.
If anyone wants to know how global temperatures can be manipulated, read and weep the following horror story:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/12/08/the-smoking-gun-at-darwin-zero/
The so called scientists with a MMGWA should be called to account.
344
Oh you will tim, for the next 5 years at least.
Labour cuts v Labour investment….
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/5620433/the-end-of-spending.thtml
334 tim
Osboren
I’d keep off the Co-Op plonk today tim. My advice is to open a bottle of Gammel Dansk, curl up on a sofa and take the night off politics by watching Kirstie.
346 - I very much doubt Chris Grayling will last 5 years.
348 - Theres a Labour PPB on tonight.
At least I think that’s what “At home with the Osbornes” is.
322 General Concensus - tim, was he the only member of the military you could still rope in for support?
VIRUS WARNING
I’ve had a warning from two sources about a highly destructive virus that will munch your hard drive.
The virus comes via e-mail called :
POSTCARD FROM HALLMARK or
POSTCARD
From a known person
DO NOT OPEN !!!!!!!!!!!!!
350 I agree on Grayling. Not impressed with him so far.
352 JackW, buy a Mac.
351 Tim mean’s there is general consensus in his multiple personality disordered head, not that there is general consensus amongst anyone normal.
Newsnight have Byrne v Hammond v Cable on tonight. Shall we see if Byrne actually knows what he’s talking about tonight? Usually one of the better performers for Labour, he was all over the place today. They really can’t cope with delivering nasties can they?
352 Jack W
Is it postmarked “Belge”?
354 EdP. I prefer an Inverness Cape !!
352 google it. hoax.
of course one day someone will think of distributing a real virus under the name of a pre existing hoax.
and come to think of it would you really want to hear from someone who sends “cards from hallmark”? so binning it unopened doesnt really have a downside.
353, quite. Grayling ought to be fed into an industrial sander.
356, may watch Newsnight. Byrne really pisses me off. I find his media appearances worse than Balls. That smirk makes me want to bury my fist in his face.
357 Seth O. Should I get Poirot on the case ??
356 Liam Byrne is the biggest psychopath in the Labour party and that is saying something. Being a psychopath he has no empathy and sees no difference between the truth and lies, so that is why he literally says anything, I doubt very much he has any clue whatsoever about economics, psychopaths are not known for their work ethic or attention to detail.
362 - You are being too kind!
Liam Bryne, has given civil servants an 11 page memo detailing when they should bring him coffee and soup.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/3468400/Cabinet-Minister-tells-civil-servants-when-to-bring-coffee-and-soup.html
358 “I prefer an Inverness Cape”
JackW, is that what we down south call a “flasher mac”?
345 - Serious question, why should we believe a ‘former TV meteorologist’ as against other scientific opinion?
I read other material which is compelling saying the opposite, so in the end, all it does is make me question everything, why are they hiding data *and* why are these people lying about data supposedly being hidden? All are, apparently, liars, if we are to believe what we are told.
The hard right’s isolation on this is important politically, People outwith that group are not going to agree with the Delingpole, Beck and Palins of this world because they don’t believe anything they say (the latter has a, likely to be ghost written, article out today).
In a twist on the Marx joke (Groucho not Karl), who would want to a member of the same club as these?
363 Rather than losing at an election and retiring off to a QUANGO, I think Liam Byrne should be publicly boiled alive, in a giant vat of French onion soup.
There could be a national lottery, with the lucky winners able to throw croutons at him…
363. I was about to point that out. Well done for getting there first.
Also, well done to Vince Cable for comparing the RBS board to Arthur Scargill.
345 - great post Weathercock. The lengths to which the AGW crowd will go to manipulate the data and distort the true picture never ceases to amaze me.
PBR - usual pre-election nonsense. Gideon (GO) is annoying me more and more as time goes on - particularly his favourite line about getting the banks to lend more. Gideon - firstly the banks are insolvent, secondly if you were earning 23k (median earnings) and had 100k of debt (I know it’s difficult from your ivory tower) then do you think I’d want to land myself in more debt?! Anyone in CCO reading this on here, seriously they need a basic economics 101 lesson, they show they haven’t got a clue when exhorting the banks to lend more.
364 Flasher Mark. An Inverness Cape :
http://www.culture24.org.uk/asset_arena/2/39/17932/v0_master.jpg
So the UK top rate of tax is going to be 52%.
A remarkable poll finding, from a Democratic polling organization no less:
“Perhaps the greatest measure of Obama’s declining support is that just 50% of voters now say they prefer having him as President to George W. Bush, with 44% saying they’d rather have his predecessor.”
http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2009/12/obamas-december-standing.html
Merry Christmas, President Obama! It’s been quite a year.
Camo and Osborne have to come out NOW with a clear commitment to cancel the 1% NI increase in 2011! Removing the other tax rises wil have to wait.
If they continue to faff around and not commit on this, whilst sticking with the IHT giveaway to the wealthy public scholl types, the aspirational working class like me who are going to get f***ed from April 2010 will think ‘what’s the point’!
Labour are nailed on to get 32% min cos of all the spongers and public sector and green charity types so Camo needs to focus on his natural support!
Get on with it Camo and win the election!!!
369 Hmm. That looks like the type of coat that doesn’t have pocket linings, to allow the perambulating gentleman easy access to his … errr … pipe.
370 er thats 62% if you earn between £100,000 and £113,000pa (thanks Labour) and a rate of sorts above 42%/52% if you get employers pension contributions…
368. Yes, because labour have been doing so well… I think we can all agree that the tories can hardly do any worse at getting the banks to lend than labour has done. You write as if GO is in charge. sadly he isnt
I see tim has been reduced to simply slagging off Osborne, at least he isn’t calling him Gideon anymore (queue tim doing that).
373 EdP. Elementary my dear EdP !!
I cannot see this PBR being anything but damaging to Labour’s position in the polls. It has been clear that since the Conference season the Labour element of the public sector vote has been in denial that the current economic fiasco would affect them. Labour’s focus on the rich and the bankers led many to believe that they would be somehow insulated, this has been laid bare for all to see today. The tragedy of it all is the proposals are so modest relative to the scale of the problem.
361 Poirot
He doesn’t come with a good reference. Christie in 1930 wrote that she found him a “detestable, bombastic, tiresome, ego-centric little creep”. Also the New York Times gave reported his death in an obituary dated August 6 1975.
If you still wish to recruit to this profile, you could always advertise on pb.com. Not that I am making any recommendations but there may be someone out there whose self-awareness trumps my discretion.
356. Hammond knows his onions and although he’s a bit dodgy in confrontations is far superior to Byrne’s complete lack of brainpower and willingless to look a twerp whenever he gets the chance. Cable will make some good points and will do what all lib dems do, get annoyed at the labour ministers constant lies and spin and start attacking him over the conservative.
374. They can now… they now know what labour will do, the tories can outline their tax and spending plans. I would suggest reforming IHT, something along the lines of £0-500000 no tax, £500001-1m 20% tax £1m+ 40% and a progressive raising of the tax threshold to £10000 over the next 4 years.
376 It’s not been a good day for tim. He’s bright enough to see the way the cards are falling…
He’ll no doubt be back tomorrow, calling for Postman Pat to replace Gordon in a last ditch attempt to fend off obliteration.
372: ‘Camo and Osborne have to come out NOW with a clear commitment to cancel the 1% NI increase in 2011! Removing the other tax rises wil have to wait.’
Ave it, your wish has just been granted! Hammond has promised that very thing on the C4 News.
376 - I’ve always liked calling him Gideon! And he deserves it after his recent performances too! He needs to read the likes of Antal Fekete, Steve Keen and Mish Shedlock, then he’ll have a better clue about what to do.
371 - From a group of people who in that poll said that they had voted in such a way that McCain lost by a two point margin instead of seven (the actuality).
An eleven point margin wouldn’t be as interesting a story though.
379 for Jack W
379 Seth O. Calling Miss Marple !!!!!!!!!!!
383 All hail the power of Ave It!!!!!!
O/T 3 women challenge Irish abortion ban in Euro court
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jQ_v19lawJtG5YntQhNWQMcxBpvgD9CFSVMG4
Isn’t it time that women from Northern Ireland were free to have an abortion without travelling to the UK?
381 - like the increase in the personal allowance (can those on £100k have theirs back please?
)
383 yes SUPER HAMMOND he’s my favourite!!!
We have won!!!!
388: ‘All hail the power of Ave It!!!!!!’
I’m reassessing Ave It’s election predictions this very second!
388 Ave it rules!
Ave it says forest can finish in the play offs whilst watford get the automatic!!!
(Perhaps lets just stick with the cancelling the NI and restoring the personal allowances!
)
390 Ave it. Ah the delusions of the Watford FC supporter !!
390
Not mentioned Watford duffing up QPR yet…
Could be March? 1974 all over again.
http://blogs.wsj.com/iainmartin/2009/12/09/uk-general-election-looks-set-for-march-25th/?mod=rss_WSJBlog
Bring back flares!
365 Ukpaul. See the CNN poll on opinions on global warming in the US at:
http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5gbTxOGYdOvXKGYMHiZ0JK3kzB4IA
A plurality in the US still accept global warming, but being sceptical of the measures prescribed is far from being confined to the “hard right”.
In the UK, the scepticism is even higher (46%) according to the ICM poll in the Sunday Telegraph:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1233621/A-climate-doubt-Almost-half-Britain-believes-global-warming-caused-man.html
392 - Did you know that Chris Grayling, besides being an utterly useless politician, is also a Man U fan?
392 Forest are the only team in the 4 divisions not to be beaten away from home!
All we need is to win more at the City Ground in 2010 and we’ll be home and hosed into the Premiership (from which we will go down in 2011 with less points than Derby managed, but what the hell…)
391, it’s worth remembering Ave It was the best forecaster of the mayoral election in London, and I think of the local elections as well.
391 TY!
Ave it is well known for saying on here that Con wont get more than 40% and Lab will get 32% min but 39-32 is enough!
Then we can change the boundaries er sorry ensure proper distribution of seats to ensure the right result in the future - oops i mean ensure the principles of democracy are enshrined in this great country. [Cheerio wales]
And while we do that:
as they are getting too much out and not paying enough tax!!!
- put up VAT to 25% (in line with Europe)
- scrap tax credits
- abolish child beneft
- introduce a negative personal allowance for those with children and earning less than £100k
397, he’s illegal under the Morris Dancer Manifesto. One more reason to Vote Morris!
397 Grayling, a Man U fan?
“KILL HIM…”
365 - UKPaul - You’ll enjoy this Fox News polling.
To give credit where it was due, Alistair Darling was comparitively honest in his presentation of the PBR, and has made absolutely clear what a horrid mess the country is in. He has also made it clear that the burden of putting right that mess is one that will be borne by people earning close to the average wage.
The temptation must have been to pretend that no hard decisions were needed, and I’m sure that Gordon Brown wanted a PBR along those lines. So Darling should be commended for telling it as it is.
However, I can’t see this helping Labour’s chances, as it does beg the question of why we are in this mess, and there is nothing there for Labour’s core voters. In particular, public sector workers are really going to get it in the neck, with real pay cuts, tax rises, and caps on their pensions. That’s probably unavoidable, but it removes any remaining incentive for them to vote Labour.
371 Andrew Sullivan linked to a chart showing comparison of Gallup polls on Presidents - Obama follows Reagan’s first term popularity polling very closely. Reagan’s unpopularity bottomed out mid term as economy turned around (too late for some Republicans as mid terms were at that point) then as growth took off it soared again and he got re-elected.
Obama, like Reagan, took ownership of resolving the recession, both driving the deficit up, though BO has used public spending, RR used tax cuts. It seems to me BO’s popularity is equally as tied to recovery as Reagans though Obama will be stuck with higher taxes and higher deficits so might not beenefit as much.
365 - Link
http://www.hurryupharry.org/2009/12/09/just-wondering/
397. God your boring, it’s like being stuck in a room with Jim Davidson, the same tired old jokes being constantly repeated, the same dull old opinions trotted out. We get you don’t like the tories, we get you have a low opinion of Osborne (and Grayling, and any other tory) so a constant grey boring reminder of your dislike of them is completely unnecessary. Try and say something new for once, anything new.
The 62% “rate” is an absolute disgrace, offending logic as much as anything.
The Treasury could raise more or less the same money (probably not much, given avoidance and emigration) by having, say, a 45% rate at £100,000-150,000, which would be altogether fairer.
New CCHQ Poster, turning the class war back on Brown
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/thetorydiary/2009/12/labour-are-targeting-families-on-20000-says-new-tory-poster.html
385- You may also have a phenomenon within the poll of some people who were Obama voters last year not admitting to it today (perhaps people who usually vote GOP but regret having made an exception last year) and instead claiming that they voted for McCain.
But the bigger and more significant issue is that the taint of Bush doesn’t seem to be nearly as great today as it was a year ago, while the greatness of Obama in voters’ eyes has been greatly reduced over the past year. This gives some insight into why anti-Bush campaigning seemed so unsuccessful this past autumn and suggests that the ability of Dems to win on an anti-Bush message going forward is all but non-existent (and the power of the Bush legacy to influence elections will only continue to decrease while Obama’s relative importance increases, as a factor in other races).
393
con gain nailed on!!
394 hahaha you would like that too!!!!
397 yes he comes from the right area
399 Ave it = no 1 poster
Back soon - going to eat my dinner!!!!
397. Well he does live in the heartland of their support.
371- S and S
Amazing poll! I half-expected that after a while, Bush numbers would recover but this is very very early…
The margin itself is apparently not humiliating as such for Obama, as his margin in this poll is close to last year’s election results. However, a lot of McCain voters were not particularly supportive of Bush. This poll seemms to say more about the current polarization of Obama’s support than about Bush…
404 “Alistair Darling was comparitively honest in his presentation of the PBR”
Really? You think those growth forecasts were “honest”? Continuously higher growth than has been acheived in the crazy-money housing-boom years? No, he knows full well those growth forecasts are way off beam….
@398: With West Brom slipping up, we’ve got a good shot at it…
“The strategy seemed fairly obvious - defer the pain until after polling day. But is this going to be enough? Will voter’s see through it? How, most importantly, is this going to be viewed in Tory targets 100-150 where the election will be decided.”
Osborne and the Tories need to keep repeating one line from this PBR, Brown and Darling have ring fenced the black hole until after the next GE. I am still sifting through it, after seeing them delay the PBR, I suspect because we remained in recession. I am more convinced that ever that we will see a March GE without a budget before it. This is classic Gordon Brown tactics of attempting to kick all the difficult decisions into the long grass until after a GE. He has done before, but this time he really cannot be allowed to get away with it.
Brown used to love ‘creating’ Tory black holes in their economic sums, well he has created the biggest one of all and you cannot miss it. We need to nail him on this day in and day out until GE day. I disagree with JackW from the previous thread, Osborne did what he had to today, but it would be cheeky to focus on his performance or the Tories today. Nope, today was all about Brown and Darling writing their government’s political obituary, lets hope its not UKplc and our triple A credit rating that are next up there.
396 - It’s the politicians who matter, they hold the reins of power, in any case it’s pointless looking at polls of people who are being fed such a poor level of debate. You may as well poll people as to whether they believe in string theory or not, all you will get is a reflection of how much they believe who tells them.
(cue Martin Coxall to inveigh against string theory…
)
That’s an interesting exchange of posts between Casino Royale and Marcus Wood.
I think it’s part of the DNA of British Conservatism to regard changes that have been wrought by Left wing governments as being permanent and irrevocable, while any piece of legislation that Conservatives have introduced is up for grabs.
That’s one reason why I don’t really regard myself as a Conservative any longer, more of an independent right winger.
If Ian Martin is right (and I think he is) we’ve got just another 4 weeks of Parliament sitting before Brown calls the general election;
http://blogs.wsj.com/iainmartin/2009/12/09/uk-general-election-looks-set-for-march-25th/
405 Ted. The economists on this site may correct me if I’m wrong, but I think that in general supply side solutions work through quicker than demand side in terms of turning around the fundamentals of the economy (as opposed to stopping the immediate bleeding, where the opposite is true). If so, the timing might not work for Obama as it did for Reagan.
416. Osborne did well, he made good points and kept the Labour benches quiet. Darling’s performance was crap awful, he went into dull mode (even for him) and instead of reading out a mediocre speech well like he usually does, he read out a bad speech very badly.
405- The Obama/Reagan parallel is an interesting one to consider to tease out the lessons, whatever they may be. The recession/unemployment similarity is unavoidable, but, as you say, the endgame will necessarily play out quite differently since the two men have completely different agendas. While Reagan was able to win re-election on the strength of not only a booming economy but also tax cuts and deregulation, Obama will undoubtedly be going into re-election season with fresh tax hikes necessitated by the deficit and greatly increased government spending; also, the deficit will still look ridiculously high by then even in a best-case scenario. He would probably still win as long as the economy is booming, but that remains to be seen.
416 - Wonder if the the ring fence the black hole will provide inspiration for some front pages / cartoons? As soon as he said it a few decent one popped into my head.
421
The Labour benches were quiet anyway, over half the seats were empty.
405/422 Also, the US is simply a more right wing place than the UK or Western Europe. That will always give an edge to right wing politicians.
424 - Got to take up every opportunity to get the sub’ed food and drink while they can.
421 In electoral terms, I suspect it was a poor performance. It contained nothing but bad news.
But, it was a fair summary of our current position.
410 - If it was a likely voters poll they would be on safer ground but it’s a registered voters poll.
Bush has actually been very good at shutting up and saying nothing, I think he finally found his strong point; Cheney, on the other hand has been pretty disgraceful.
424. I listened to it rather than watched, where did they go? They dissapear during most major speeches now.
417 ukpaul You have a point, in that it is in part a poll of how much people trust what they are being told. However, unlike string theory (or evolution as cited by Socrates a few days ago), the global warming issue affects people’s daily lives in that major policy decisions which affect the economy and jobs are being made on the basis of what the scientists are saying about global warming. As far as I know, no major policy decisions affecting the economy and jobs are made based on a belief or otherwise of evolution or the theory of everything. Thus, what people believe in relation to global warming is very much more important with regards to politics (and hence politicians) than is their belief in evolution or high-energy physics.
413- I’m just as surprised as you are, Chris. I would guess that the numbers would have been around 70/30 last January (or maybe even 75/25), and would have further guessed they’d still be at least 60/40 today in Obama’s favor. Again, I think the big lesson is that the Dems have greatly overestimated how much mileage they’ll be able to get out of running against the Bush legacy in future elections. From now on, it’s pretty much all about their own performance. The sooner they see this, the better off they’ll be. I suspect some hard-nosed, honest pollster is making this argument to the Democratic leadership, but I’m sure they don’t want to hear it.
430 - I agree, which is why I get so frustrated at the politicisation of the debate. It has polarised what should be something above politics.
Tim - Channel 4, now! Kirstie Allsop will fill you with some (much-lacking) Yuletide spirit…
Also, an interesting exchange between Southam Observer and various contributors.
I’m not convinced that there is much alternative to relying on the intangible activities that generate the UK lots of income, such as financial services, legal services, publishing, and education, plus such tangibles as drugs, armaments, and aerospace.
High grade manufacturing is clearly useful for Germany (although, Germany’s recession has been almost as severe as our own) but any Western economy is under ever-increasing pressure from the Far East in that sector. Also, it doesn’t generate much employment, these days.
431 - January job approval avge was about 60 to 65%.
http://www.pollster.com/polls/us/jobapproval-obama.php?xml=http://www.pollster.com/flashcharts/content/xml/Obama44JobApproval.xml&choices=Approve,Disapprove&phone=&ivr=&internet=&mail=&smoothing=&from_date=&to_date=&min_pct=&max_pct=&grid=&points=1&lines=1&colors=Disapprove-BF0014,Approve-000000,Undecided-68228B
I don’t know if this has been posted.
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/5620713/has-labour-uturned-on-protecting-defence-spending.thtml
If Labour is considering defense cuts I think they have thrown in the towel.
Everything I have seen makes me think they are setting out to lose the GE (by as narrow a margin as possible, of course) but leave a toxic mess for the Conservatives to clean up and then make a comeback after five years.
O/T but this could be really important to people who home-school their children.
“The government intends to regulate and inspect home educators more extensively than at present.”
http://www.johnredwoodsdiary.com/2009/12/09/parliament-briefly-flickered-into-life/#comments
425- I should have added Afghanistan, too, as an issue Reagan didn’t have to deal with that will certainly be part of the landscape as Obama runs for re-election (Reagan had the Cold War, but that issue was a winner for him at the time). Even if that effort is going reasonably well, we will nonetheless still be there in considerable numbers in November 2012. That will not help much in driving Democratic base turnout for Obama (although he could do better with centrists IF it is going well).
That’s one reason why I don’t really regard myself as a Conservative any longer, more of an independent right winger.
by Sean Fear December 9th, 2009 at 7:46 pm
Ditto. Thats exactly why I’m not a Conservative party member, and why I think a smattering of new MP’s such as Farage would help to stiffen their collective spine.
The reall trouble with the british right wing is that:
1. they lack a proper right wing philosophy.
2. They are frightened of the vision thing.
If and when the tories win the GE, we rightists will have to keep up our criticism of their policies when, as I suspect, they get all socialistic from time to time.
425. I think that’s a reasonable assessment Sean, except that Darling’s measures aren’t nearly enough to bring the public finances under control. So in that sense, it remained a dishonest performance.
But (as I predicted) it was a long way from the wildly political package you might have expected on the basis of the Labour briefings over the last few days.
437 Home Schooling works extremely well for a small number of children who have extremely committed parents, and can devote the time to educate them.
Which is why governments view it with extreme suspicion.
440 I thought they would go for something more political (and far-fetched) and I think Darling deserves credit for not doing so.
435- Sorry if I wasn’t specific… I was referring to the hypothetical question of who you’d rather have as president, Obama or Bush. I would guess that Obama would have fared better on that question back in January than his job approval figure.
437 I don’t understand what problem the government is trying to address? It’s just more money and more intrusion for no particular sake.
441 Sean Fear. My daughter (a junior, or lower-sixth) has just started ‘distance learning’. Not home schooling, in that she works to a national syllabus and has a teacher at the end of a phone/email to address any questions. Otherwise it is entirely self-taught. Her grades have shot up from below B to A/A+ (not due to grade inflation either) while spending less than half the time she did at school and no commuting. She is highly motivated, as it allows her to pursue her true love, Eventing.
My point is that distance learning can be effective for many more children than home schooling.
445 I’m sure it can be. And, I’m pleased to hear that.
But, exepect some regulatory proposal, sooner or later, to protect your daughter from herself.
446 Good luck to the regulator who tries to tell her what to do
Don’t have much luck there myself. On the up side, my maths is having some refresher courses of an evening…
I think a great cartoon would be a picture of the Great Britian with a fairly large hole in the centre. Around the hole would be roadwork paraphernalia and a sign saying “work commences in 2011″. Next to the roadworks, tubby Gordo jumping up and down waving a massive sign(s) spelling out some dividing line(s)….the big problem is that although the surface hole isn’t too big, there is no earth after a small thin layer and as Gordo is jumping more earth is collapsing into the massive underground cavern lying below the land mass of Great Britain.
The aimless scuttling from the lefty cockroaches on here (”not a gamechanger” - Nick Palmer) tells the story. This is a calamitous PBR for Labour, because it is halfway honest in admitting the dire position we are in.
The truth will now be hitting home in every British household.
I disagree with Sean Fear that Darling should be credited for this candour. I don’t think he had any choice. The markets would have punished, with ferocity, any obvious lies. We might even have lost our AAA credit rating - and that would have destroyed the government overnight.
So Darling had to fess up. And so he has, begrudgingly and half-heartedly.
409 - Now that is a simple, clear and unambiguous message. So much better than the Deadwood…
Surely the most bizarre aspect of Darling’s speech was the Bingo Tax reduction. What’s that got to do with anything? It’s almost as if a disloyal civil servant slipped it into his speech to provoke ridicule. Darling and Brown will go down in history as the Chancellors who played Bingo with the British economy - and lost.
Ready reckoner on the NI changes:
“It IS a soak-the-rich PBR, say Labour”
http://waugh.standard.co.uk/2009/12/it-is-a-soaktherich-pbr-say-labour.html
451. It is even stranger than it looks given that bingo tax was only increased from 15% to 22% in this years budget: http://thebingofinder.co.uk/bingo-news/bingo-tax-measures-will-cost-jobs-0112/
unless that page is a complete spoof, which it might be.
Channel 4 Fact Check on the Budget
http://www.channel4.com/news/articles/business_money/factcheck+prebudget+report+2009/3456127
new thread
Tell me if Im wrong but doesnt the PBR have an allowance in 2010-11 for rising benefits?
For those who like trivia, the origin of the term ’soap opera’:
“US show As The World Turns, one of the world’s longest-running daytime soap operas, is being cancelled after 54 years, broadcaster CBS has announced. … It is the last daytime drama made by a media subsidiary of Procter and Gamble, set up in 1933 to promote its detergents in the first “soap operas”.”
ukpaul You might like this article on trusting scientists and the global warming thing.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2009/12/10/science_becomes_a_casualty_of_politics_99497.html
The only thought i would add to it is that trust can relatively easily be restored in the scientific consensus if the data and models are thrown wide open to challenge by sceptical scientists and if the scientific debate, if there is a real science debate to be had, be so totally open that everyone’s science, paymasters and motives are clear for all to see and challenge.