The PB/Angus Reid cross-tabs
December 10th, 2009
Should all pollsters get their data out on the same day?
Here is the main set of cross-tabs with the regional and gender splits from this evening’s Politicalbetting/Angus Reid poll which is showing almost no change in the overall picture.
Download the full set for yourself here.
One of the things I was very keen on when we were setting up the arrangement with the pollster was that the full data-set should be made available as soon as possible - on the same day is good target.
We are heading for a hectic period and the detail from all public polls should be available for scrutiny just about as soon as those involved can make it happen.
The basic British Polling Council rule of allowing a gap of two working days is really not sufficient in the election run-up and, accordingly, I am writing to its chair, Professor John Curtice, asking for an acceleration.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
Boo Ja
Excellent PBR from Mr Darling.
Obviously, he couldn’t please everyone, so he’s done the next best thing and pleased no-one.
As a result, the critics to his plans have been divided and unfocussed, with the tories actually reduced to spreading demonstrably inaccurate scare stories.
The fact that the first post PBR poll shows that Labour have actually increased their support, is further proof that Darling has pulled off a magnificent political achievement.
Damn!!!
Datasheets as soon as polls are published, is a mighty fine idea
FPT Re: Brown’s phonecalls to Cantebury, maybe he’s doing a Tiger!!! Eww! What a thought……
3 - That post, has the potential to become PB’s most talked about post since Roger’s “no”
3. He’s behind you!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Appropriate reaction to MacGabble’s post,
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_U-Vldmrb0i4/RvFUiemSHpI/AAAAAAAAAV0/5k7YnDUj6Yo/s320/tumbleweed.jpg
3 Okay, posting that the first time was funny. But again is just disturbing.
3. Keep taking the tablets!
repost:
Just got a letter throught the post from the tories, one addressed to each person in the house. I live in a lib-con seat. Last time the vote was Con 31, Lib 46. Its quite clear how they are going to campaign for votes. Here’s the main exerp:
”A vote for … in oxford is a vote for change- a vote for anybody else is a vote for 5 more years of gordon brown. Next year’s election will decide whether david cameron or gordon brown is our next PM. To change the goverment in westminster, the conservatives must win here. The power to change the government is in your hands”.
3.I’ve changed my mind over the true identity of Gabble.After that post I’m now convinced he’s Gordon Brown,living in his own parallel universe
As the Telegraph say, Cohen really really wanted us to pay for his bathroom,
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/telegraph/multimedia/archive/01541/cc_1541510a.jpg
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/telegraph/multimedia/archive/01541/cc3_1541515a.jpg
FPT:
General Election - March 25th (Guaranteed*)
http://www.snptacticalvoting.com/2009/12/general-election-march-25th-guaranteed.html
Source in govt confirms 25th March election apparently…
12 - The Vote Yellow, Get Brown strategy.
Mike.
WHy don’t they publish them quicker, there doesn’t seem to be any reason not to.
I could see an advantage if they got them out say 12 hours later as they’d get written about again for any regional shifts etc.
3 PS. majority of polling done before PBR. Even then, polling done Thursday will have been before the main media and newspaper reaction today.
So little or no effect of the PBR on this poll, Gabs - must try harder
What is the Scotland split? I’m on my mobile and impossible to read. Ta.
12 - Makes sense as a technique. Link the LibDems to Labour and hope that enough people panic.
3 - Seeing as he has not impressed the bond markets, British debt is approaching 4 times the insurance cost as Germany, he has failed the impress the real power over our immediate economic future. Callaghan did the right thing in the end days of Labour, Major/Clarke did the right thing in the end days of the Tories. Brown/Darling have done the wrong thing. We will all pay for their failure. They are a disgrace…
19 - Stuart
Lab 42%
SNP 33%
Tories 14%
LD 7%
Sample size 134
19 Stuart
L 42
SNP 33
C14
LD 7!
others 4
25th March election - that would mean Labour out in just 15 weeks time, campaign starting in about 10.
Wonderfully close.
12 - At least Amanda hasn’t started on the God stuff yet.
I hear the abortion loons are circling in that seat.
12 - Sorry, Nicola.
19 - Labour 42 SNP 33 Con 14 LD 7 but a very small sample size of 134.
15. Oh, I do hope so.
That would mean only 3 and a bit months until this disasterous government gets lovingly chucked out of office.
Interestingly it looks like only 6% are unlikely to vote in this poll. Does this indicate a high turnout?
Many thanks Eagles and Chris! Now I will sleep with a smile on my face
Before I go: very bad poll for centre right govt in Sweden today! Looks ominous for Swedish GE next year.
27 there is no e in disastrous…
Mike do you know what Angus Reid counts as being the North?
Looking at that split of
Lab on 26%
Tories 37%
Lib Dems 19%
implies Labour might be in Dockside Hooker territory.
(I know, usual caveats apply about regional sub splits)
15/23/27 - I take no responsibility for the accuracy of this post. Just thought I’d linked to it!
30. Oops!
I’d just like to thank the Labour party for their sensible, clever and audacious policy of mass clandestine unwanted immigration over the last ten years.
Yes, some chavs may have suffered as the vast hordes of Asian and African migrants have driven wages down for unskilled proles, but, frankly, who cares. Today I hired a 19 year old Thai cleaner for £6 an hour.
She took two hours (I believe they call this “long time” in her language) to turn my new Regent’s Park flat into a sparkling palace of unprecedented cleanliness.
SIX QUID AN HOUR FOR A SIAMESE SKIVVY
I may have to cross the floor. Labour done good.
34 - She gave everything a good polish i take it?
FPT
541 Gabble
You are almost beyond parody. How could a PBR such as that be “excellent”
There is, theoretically, a sense where a Chancellor could make the very best possible of an extremely bad job, in the way that George Osborne might do in June for example, but since Darling is in no sense absolved from blame of what has gone before, still less his Prime Minister, then to describe it as “excellent” is just risible. It went no way towards addressing the country’s pressing problem, was nakedly political, had its head in the clouds and missed almost all major targets, literal and metaphorical.
Excellent it was not.
Table 15 indicates that there are a lot of Labour supporters supporting minor parties who would go back if the minor party is not standing. That would give them some hope…
Thanks Marcia! Have Populus published their detailed data from Dec Times poll yet? If so: what is Scotland split?
Once again, in Midlands and Wales Labour’s share is dire - only 3% higher than in the south. I know the sample sizes are very small.
Some of these sample sizes are 500 or larger. I assume they quite reliable since sometimes an entire poll only has that number.
30, 33 Apologies for spelling! I got caught up in the excitement of the thought of Labour finally being kicked out!
34 In Regent’s Park,and considering your personal circumstances,paying her £8-10 an hour would have been appropriate IMHO
Interesting to see the BNP hardly registering in Scotland. It confirms my feeling that most Scots, myself included, take the view that “We’re a’ Jock Tamson’s bairns” (with the exception of Cornish sex memoirists, who are, of course, the spawn of Satan …)
37 - They are showing 9% UKIP support in the North, 64% of whom seem to be Labour leaners.
Just looking at the regionals, we have a similar pattern to other pollsters:
Tories in lead in London, South, Midlands
Lib Dems are the second party in the South (outside London)
The North of England figures are where there is a major difference from ICM. Even with the Lab-Con race being much more in Labour’s favour in Scotland, that would not produce the Labour margins that have been in the ICM North (which of course includes Scotland).
With all the regional caveats, is this where the voters are floating at the moment?
41. You voted for Labour. Your government allowed these people in. Now I am keeping a member of the vast new migrant population, imported by Labour, gainfully employed at approximately the Labour government’s minimum wage.
As a Labour voter you should be applauding my concordance with your government’s policies.
43 - Which is also somewhat similar to what we saw at Norwich North, with protesting but “never vote for the Tories” going to UKIP. Odd they’ll vote for a party to the right of the Tories but not the Tories…
38 - Lab 44 SNP 26 Con 18 Lib 7 oth 6 - sample size only 72
Appalling Lib Dem figures in Scotland, and the Cons falling back as well. According to Andrew Neil the Lib Dem MPs apparently had an away day today, was it in Scotland, were they the 7%!!!!
47 - Marcia, would you mind posting a link to the detailed populus December poll datasheets, Mike, couldnt find it earlier on. (Nor could I)
Cameron = hypocrite
Cameron on the communications allowance:
“It’s anti-democratic, it’s a waste of money, so it’s gone.”
“In 2007-08 Cameron claimed £1,656.76 for maintaining his website and £456.25 for taking out advertisements in local Witney newsletters.”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/dec/10/david-cameron-mps-expenses1
Thanks Marcia. Much in line with most other recent polls: utterly abysmal for Tavish Scott’s sorry troop.
47 - Stuart ignore those figures- husband says that is Nov - will search again.
42. Maybe there aren’t enough dusky migrants in Scotland to engender anti-black or anti-Asian bigotry, and therefore BNP votes.
Besides, racists in Scotland usually hate the English more than anyone else. And anti-English Scottish racists and nationalists already have a governing party in Edinburgh to cater for their concerns.
Those phone call… judging by Browns lack of grasp of that internet thing, he was probably ‘doing a Jaquii Smith’ and calling an ‘adult’ phone line
50 - last results on their website is November.
46 Multiple left-right axes - like those online tests that have economic left-right and authoritarian vs libertarian in four quadrants - one right-left axis is nationalist vs anti-nationalist.
The Tories are currently more or less in the same position as Lab/Lib on that axis and that axis is slowly becoming the dominant one for a bunch of people.
The Populus figures are still not online…
Done a few calculations to see what the shares are without Scotland.
I got Con 42.1% Lab 21.1% LibDem 20.3%
Sill includes Wales where Labour are likely to be mid, low thirties.
Looks like Labour are around 20% in England, in 3rd behind Libs on about 21%. Cons about 43%. That’s where it really matters.
51 -the post numbers have changed see - 54
50. Its desperate stuff now isn’t it Gordon MacGabble
Anecdote alert - we had a political discussion going in the tea room this lunchtime - a novel thing in itself, but it beats the X-factor or the latest departmental pregnancy. Bearing in mind that they are all public sector workers, some of them quite lowly paid, there wasn’t a single thumbs up for Darling.
Come on tim (FPT) where’s the evidence that people are dying for want on an elctronic patient record. You wouldn’t let others get away with such dodgy unwarranted nonsense, so where is it?
50 - Cameron looks abstemoius compare the biggest claimer in the house.
George Osborne, shadow chancellor, was told by the Fees Office in April that he had exceeded his annual allowance and would therefore not be paid his entire claim. Mr Osborne claimed £841.63 for heating oil and house insurance but the claim was reduced by £51 because there were “insufficient funds available in your allowance”.
57. Labour THIRD in England is fairly extraordinary, when you think about it. Without their Scottish fastness the governing party could be looking at terminal decline.
If the Tories manage to solve the WLQ without destroying the Union they could finish Labour forever.
61 - But were there many thumbs up for Squeaky either or was it three cheers for Saint Vince instead?
63 That’s not expensive for heating oil and insurance.
But if you are a farmer, you should know the price of RBO.
I think the Dave challenge pumps out less repeats than the TimBot. A least once in a while there is a new version of Argumental, with every bodies favourite “radial” and PC World voice-over man, Marcus Brigstocke.
Front Pages: Just one - The Indie announcing £2,400 bill for every family to cut the deficit.
http://page.politicshome.com/uk/10th_december_2009.html
radial” -> “radical”
challenge -> channel
Great picture of Gordo on the front of the FT with Sarko.
I thought he was paying someone to make sure he took good photographs?
The tables seem to show Labour are still piling on votes in Scotland (where they don’t need them) and doing disasterously badly in the Midlands, Wales, Southern England and even Northern England looks grim.
66 - I think the point about Osborne Sally is that not only is he the joint biggest trougher in the house, he repeatedly tries to overclaim
62 - You don’t doubt that immediate access to medical records in A&E, Delivery suites etc would save lives do you?
71 - What a bleep bleep bleep tit!
Yes, although it isn’t HE is paying, it is WE are paying, for Mrs Sion Simon.
It’s difficult to believe Labour’s share in Wales and the Midlands is only 3% higher than in the south of England. There’s no way Cameron would fail to win a majority if those figures are correct given the number of marginals in the Midlands.
tim’s obsession with Osborne is poignant. Reading his comments is like watching someone with severe pruritus ani.
He tries not to scratch that deeply personal and obsessing itch, oh he tries. He really tries. But when he thinks no one is particularly watching, he reaches around and… oooh…. the relief.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pruritus_ani
Inheritance tax, Bullingdon, millionaires, scratch scratch, Gideon, wisteria, Eton, scratch scratch….
Then he sees we are watching, and quickly starts talking about MMR.
The FT leads with the stock market’s frightened reaction to the pre-Budget report.
That’s at some variance with what we read here from certain quarters!
73 - Now that is just a flat out lie, “Joint biggest trougher”, Squeaky has had some very dodgy claims, but isn’t even close to top on the Tory Front bench, let alone the whole house. He still has a long way to catch up the professional flipper (amongst other things) Darling.
78 - Joint first last year, and tried to overclaim.
Tried to overclaim this year.
And is being investigated for his mortgage and Capital Gains (flipping)
73. Having 20 Policemen on every street 24/7 would save lives too but we can’t afford it. There’s no money. Don’t you understand that yet?
79 - You seem to have a problem distinguishing between max’ing ACA and “troughing”. Our own NPMP is an expert at maxing out ACA (pretty much every year since entering parliament), but although not a saint (see petty cash and seeming unwillingness to be more cost effective to the tax payer) I wouldn’t exactly call him a mega trougher.
As I said far worse on Tory front bench, let alone rest of the house. Squeaky has an one alleged “flip”, Darling seems to do one a year.
78. I think tim hopes we will eventually get so bored we will stop picking up the [cough, cough] ‘distortions’ and the lurkers will think we let it go because the info is correct.
I pay my Spanish cleaner £24 for my small flat in Soho. £12 is mean.
Another tory fox dispatched by Darling:
“At a time when a financially-induced recession has caused output to drop by 4.75 per cent, left hundreds of thousands out of work and inflicted tax rises on us all, the City appears still more concerned to protect its own pay packet than to play a responsible role in society. Not only is its outcry against the bonus tax unnecessary, it is also inappropriate.”
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ac36ee68-e5c3-11de-b5d7-00144feab49a.html
82 - Sally, the only MP to have broken the rules today is Hunt, and you’ll let that go because he is a Tory friend of Dave.
No point doing sanctimony with your double standards.
84 - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_QR9QP0Rjsc&
Ahhhh. Lovely pic, too.
“Prime Minister Gordon Brown admitted Tuesday he should oversee the family computer more closely, after his young son posted a string of gobbledegook on his wife’s Twitter page.
Followers of Sarah Brown’s popular feed on the micro-blogging site — received by more than a million people — were startled last week to see her apparently exclaim “fvdfzsrsazxzzxcvbnmadgfhjjkqwrtyuuuiop”
http://www.geo.tv/12-11-2009/54501.htm
84. Gab’s, your back in buisness tonight then? I noticed your absense last night. Were you shell shocked into silence by the sheer awefulness of the PBR?
The detailed Angus Reid figures show just how much of a divide there is between voting intentions in Scotland (Tories on 14%, Labour on 42%) and the South of England (Tories on 46%, Labour on 17%). As an exiled Scot living in the South I am amazed that so many of my fellow Scots back Labour.
But then again, whenever I come across any of my old acquaintances who still live in Scotland, I am taken aback - embarrassed even - by their parochial, small-minded and entrenched attitudes. The majority seem to prefer to be cosseted by the state rather than strive for self-reliance.
Time for the two countries to go their separate ways I think. If the break up comes, I’d go for an English passport (though an Australian passport would be my ideal choice if they’d have me).
“Gordon Brown blocked Alistair Darling’s plan to increase VAT”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/dec/10/brown-darling-vat-increase-plan
87 Gordons son is wage slave.
83. You got rich through being an advertising executive, making TV commercials about sanitary towels and budget dogfood. Your guilt at having earned serious money in such a quintessentially puerile and worthless life obliges you to overpay your minions.
By contrast, I am an international bestselling author of globally adored novels. I bring joy to millions. These girls are lucky to work for me; indeed I imagine many of them would do it for nothing, given half the chance.
You see the difference.
85 You are no arbiter of standards.
Interesting that tim is suddenly using “broke the rules” as a yardstick.
Wasn’t there a story the other day that the brown’s son could not have made that twitter entry and it was a staged event ?
[72] - The tables seem to show Labour are still piling on votes in Scotland (where they don’t need them…
Oh, but Labour do need votes in Scotland. The most likely outcome of the next election is that Labour will lose. Labour need to remain the official Opposition, so that they can hope, eventually, to become a home for voters disenchanted with Cameron et al.
Soeone commented on here recently that the Celtic fringe was vital for Labour in ensuring that they saw off the SDP/Liberal alliance last time.
If the SNP had routed Labour in Scotland at the same time as they had been routed in England… who knows what could happen.
Evening Tag Team Tim really is a wally. He first claims Squeaky is the worst in offender in the house, then two posts later highlights a worse Tory offender….
87.
ahh indeed.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/willheaven/100019376/twittergate-was-sarah-browns-gibberish-tweet-faked/
95 In which case maybe Wage slave is actually the official bunker representative on PB and Tim is just a concerned farmer.
Its my first Christmas in our public sector office and like a universal archetype I smiled today to “discover” that the complexes ” Festive ” ( Don’t mention the C word) party is next Friday afternoon. Because of the way the calendar falls we’ll have aparticularly long Christmas coma this year. The last Friday before Christmas which kicks off the party season/public sector hibernation is a full 7 days before the day its self. I suspect baring unusually high Afghan casualities, and of course I don’t actually mean Afghan casulties, then not much is going to register now politically before the New Year.
The Copenhagen Climax will get a lot of air time but seems preordianed to fudge. The scale of the pre publicity ( I haven’t been able to attend a Church event for over 4 months without it being heavily pushed ) means it may achieve a last nudge in the public conciousness but i don’t much immediate impact this week.
I suspect the final round of post PBR polls are the last big political event left for us.
I do expect a heavy duty ” Love Actually” offensive from Sarah Brown. I expect a lot of great photos of her in the press but thats it. She’s in the ES these days more than Nigella which I though impossible.
87 - We know Gordo never uses his family as props.
Ah here it is..
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/willheaven/100019376/twittergate-was-sarah-browns-gibberish-tweet-faked/
[89] - If the break up comes, I’d go for an English passport..
Why not one of each? Wasn’t that the solution when Ireland became independent?
98 snap
92- seanT-you are such a narcissist
Entertaining how people who post here all day complain that tim posts here all day.
87 Gabble
Curious… he seems to be propping his children up. Care to comment?
Fact Check on Darling’s Spending Claims:
4.5/5 (5 being total and utter porkie pie)
http://www.channel4.com/news/articles/uk/factcheck+flat+spending+cuts/3457562
Sean - do you give her a wage slip and pay her NI?
102. Can’t be right, GB’s moral compass would surely not permit misleading the audience.
106. NPMP talk to us. What do you really think of the PBR? I’m wandering away from the consensus on here and think that there is plenty in it and Darling has laid th foundations for a managed defeat on a core of 28% and 220ish seats. A radioactive slag heap no doubt but robust enough to keep the headship of the centre left unless a further earth slip happens post election?
103 - Fair point, but at £77.50 a pop I’m not sure it’s worth having two.
106 Entertaining now Mr Palmer makes his weak point with limited facts and no stats. Bit like Darlings PBR.
All we have to say is 13900 and counting etc…
Apparently tim is on for some sort of record. Please ask Mike to fess up the stats on anyone else with whom you would like to make a comparison.
[100] - In all of the bits of the public sector that I’ve worked in, we’ve always been wished a Merry Christmas by the top boss of the organisation, and sometimes the managers have chipped in to pay for drinks at the Christmas lunch.
You must be particularly unfortunate to work at such a dour and humourless office.
94 - Not me, Cameron
So that is a very clear line in the sand, if you like. Where there are cases that are obviously excessive or people have gone outside the rules, I don’t rule out taking the Whip away from them.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/andrew_marr_show/8065768.stm
Hunt is safe though don’t you think.
Dave didn’t mean it.
108 said..
Fact Check on Darling’s Spending Claims:
4.5/5 (5 being total and utter porkie pie)
What did they leave out the crackling
Yellow Submarine - calm down dear - forget about the fact for a moment that she is ‘married’ to El Gordo, she is actually quite shaggable. Oh, and what is this - Piers Moron on Question Time with William Hague…Ooohh Suits You, Sir !!
109. Icarus !
92
By contrast, I am an international bestselling author of globally adored novels. I bring joy to millions.
Your a houshold name, well in your own houshold anyway.
ITV NEWS really bad so far.
Yes Y Sub - still here but the fag of having to type my moniker in each time has made posting infrequent. That and working for the Job Centre Minus!
110 GB’s moral compass was last seen in Johnny Depp’s codpiece in some pirate yarn when a bloke wth worms stuck to his face (could have been Lord Mantlepiece of Foy)was trying to rule the world.
Or some similarly original plan.
PS Hi socialist losers and scroungers-not long now is it. HA HA
Question Time,
General Sir Richard Dannatt, Bill Rammell, William Hague, Lord Ashdown, Salma Yaqoob and Piers Morgan.
120 - It has been since Bradby tried to throw himself into the Queen Mothers hearse.
105. Hi Tyson. worse than SeanT’s narcissism it looks like Cameron/Osborne could be heading for Downing Street.
89. ‘Mines a pint’ “But then again, whenever I come across any of my old acquaintances who still live in Scotland, I am taken aback - embarrassed even - by their parochial, small-minded and entrenched attitudes” Is that just you or does everyone from Accrington feel the same?
Rammell is going to need a lot of cover from Morgan this evening.
126 - Morgan of dodgy photo fame? Dodgy dossier, dodgy photo, dodgy equipment…
117. Thats my point. I really like Sarah Brown and always coo over her photo opps and go ” Oh, look! If only she was Labour Leader..”
Then the other day it occured to me that I honestly can’t remeber ever having heard her speak let along rememeber anything she has ever said. So how can I and others “like” her so much?
Shes pretty, photo genic and seems to have enough PR/interpersonal skills to be doing a cracking “First Lady” under the radar campaign without having triggerd any sort of Cherie Blair/Witches of Endor/First Lady process story backlash.
She’s a strategic threat. She should be Torpedoed and sent to the bottom of the atlantic.
BBC 10 awful for Labour.
120 - Tory Cuts v Labour Investment is really coming back to bite Brown. As has the class war, a Labour Toff claiming for his repairs on his bell tower on his mansion.
Nick Robinson claims that the Treasury wanted deeper cuts, but Brown/Balls overruled them.
126,and he will certainly get it.
Bradby ace! Tories spelt things out. Labour haven’t. And Laim Bynre drowning for background noise.
Now Quentin!
Shaun lets in Dave. Quentin stuffs up. Now Brown’s ’summerhouse’
[112] - Thinking worst-case scenario here, but a Scottish passport might come in handy if the plane you are on is hijacked and not flown into a building…
109. Of course! I can claim my Siamese factotums as expenses - cause they are cleaning my office. It’s all above board, so the Revenue boys can’t complain.
“Mister Thomas, your claim for ‘long time washy washy’, what exactly did that entail?”
ONtopic, here’s a f*cking idea for cutting public sector expenses. Cancel the damn war in Afghanistan. And stop paying doctors two hundred grand a year, dimwits.
Grrr.
126 - Such a shame its not Dannett and Grayling.
120 BBC Ten O’Clock not exactly great for the Government either
Saw Tom Bradby at the Tory Conference. He was smaller than I’d expected [not small just smaller than I'd thought]. He’s a good looking chap though.
121. I empathise about Job Centre Minus. I feel like going rouge and calling in an Osbourne airstrike on my own public sector experience.
Stay in sonar range.
128 Sarah Brown = feeble cold hearted b**ch who was unable to secure a decent boyfriend. I’d rather w##k into a fridge than get near her.
127. He’s also very smug. A smug judge on Britain’s Got Talent, along with smug Amanda Holden and smug Simon Cowell. All it needs is Keith Vaz and it would be perfect in the smugness stakes.
140 - That’s the sort of stuff i’d expect to hear from the likes of Damian McBride.
130 - I have a walk-in fridge in the Butlers Pantry.
140.She knows what she doing but that’s going too far.
Is ComRes out yet?
#134 Play it ultra safe, get a dual Scottish/Lybian passport.
142 Did not fancy him or his politics.
Telegraph has Quentin on the front page with Darling’s spending squeeze as well…
128. I wouldn’t be sure Sarah Brown is some sort of genius: it was she who told Brown he should do THE infamous Youtube video.
140 – Please, can we keep so decorum here, I doubt you have even met the woman.
142/144. Agreed.
What I like about Tom Bradbury is that he is unashamedly a Tory. Most in his position try to appear neutral.
140. I have a friend who wanks straight into his fliptop kitchen bin, to save on paper tissues - and therefore trees. He sees this as his contribution to the war on climate change.
That said, he also stimulates himself with a vibrating toothbrush. I’m not entirely sure how “Green” that is.
149 No that’s wasn’t a success was it? But some things work.
147 - So dont practise his kind of politics, where politicians spouses were fair game.
I gave up on Question Time about 6 months ago. Ashdown might be interesting though. Surely now we have entered the Christmas party season Clegg can’t come out against the war. It would just be so cynical to do it months before the election.
That means all of the big three supporting it through the campaign and I imagine quite a bit of static electricty about for “Others” to feed on. Lucas is the obvious beneficary but i wonder if UKIP could work there way round to a “Blood and Treasure” narrative for withdrawal?
34. Are you going to teach her to “kiss the ph4llus” as well or is that extra?
The Genesis Secret arrived yesterday, came home to it last night, just finished it.
I think you spelt Gigantopithecus wrong but apart from that it was jolly good fun. Well worth the £0.01 I paid for it (plus £2.75 postage) off Amazon Marketplace.
152 Rog. You’re a hoot tonight.
I love it when Mike deletes posts, and the numbers go out of sync.
154. I agree to an extent - but I’d say once they start making strategic decisions in the political field they’re entitled to be discussed in light of those decisions.
For instance, I would never comment on Sarah Brown’s personal life in a negative way but when she comes out with ways to help her husband in the political sphere I think it’s perfectly justifiable to comment on them.
“Alistair Darling’s measures did not go far enough, voters believe”
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/pbr/article6952476.ece
156 Damn I paid £2.99 at Oxfam for my copy. Mind you it was quite a page turner - especially the gory ones that got turned extra quickly
TSE To be honest, I think she has made herself into a very political spouse and therefore she is not off limits.
I think the point is that you steer clear of going that far in any circs.
Only 12 per cent, however, think that the Chancellor’s measures will be sufficient to deal with Britain’s economic and financial problems.
153. Agreed. She’s obviously trying her best. She is probably an asset to him on balance.
Roger,
I’ve been wittering on for about 6 weeks with random posts about the extraordinary “Greening” of major brands recently at exactly the time in the cycle that you’d be expecting them to be dropping the greenwash. As an ad man what do you think their focus groups are telling them about fairness, responsibility, corporate branding? and what are the political ramifications of the zeitgeist shift if indeed there is one?
“There has been a sharp fall since September, of 12 points to 32 per cent, in the number trusting the Conservatives most to cut spending in ways that do not harm important public services and minimise the negative impact on ordinary people. ”
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/pbr/article6952476.ece
Overall trust in the Cameron-Osborne team to manage the economy has risen by five points since October to 46 per cent.
“Mr Darling will be relieved about the strong support for his proposals: 78 per cent backing a one-off tax on bankers’ bonuses; 61 per cent supporting the capping of all public sector pay increases at 1 per cent for two years; and even 51 per cent in favour of raising national insurance contributions. ”
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/pbr/article6952476.ece
BBC describe Quentin Davies as “former Tory MP” rather than Labour Minister.
The BBC needs a good clean out.
Only 36 per cent, however, agree with the Tory view that the Budget deficit is now so serious that “we cannot put off dealing with it any longer and significant cuts in public spending must start next year”. The poll found that 59 per cent back the Labour view that, while there will have to be significant cuts, they “should not be made until the economic recovery is much stronger”.
re 158 the usual reason the numbers go awry is when posts are released from moderation. Very little gets deleted.
159/162 - Agree with both of you. Those comments that have been deleted were just too far.
128 - Cherie’s problem was that she declared that she wanted to be involved in government. We tend to rather want our politicians elected in this country and unlike the US aren’t used to the executive being appointed after election of one individual. That was why the reaction against Cherie was so poor. In fact in the British system the best partners of our leaders stay out of the way. How often was Mrs Callaghan or Mrs Major in the press? Even Denis kept a lowish profile.
161. You were done mate. £2.99? They’re ‘avin’ a Turkish.
Or as a Tom Knox character would say, “That was, as you would say, reiner Diebstahl. You will know not to shop there again, nicht? Just because these airport novels contain foreign characters whose grammar is perfekt yet whose vocabulary is oddly deficient, they think they can rip you off.”
Reading the Times piece seems Tories still have work to do on selling their message.
And
Nonetheless, overall trust in the Cameron-Osborne team to manage the economy has risen by five points since October to 46 per cent, the highest level since the question was first asked in August 2007. The Brown-Darling team has also improved, by four points to 32 per cent, but now lags a record 14 points behind.
This post seems a bit confused to me
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/edwest/100019539/the-tory-taliban-are-resurgent-in-the-battle-for-the-soul-of-the-conservatives/
Delaying cuts until recovery starts:
36% agree with tories
59% agree with Labour
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/pbr/article6952476.ece
As predicted, this is great for Darling.
Looks like the mini Populus is a random sample rather than one weighted by past vote and we know what OGH thinks of those!
171 - I know, my all time favourite was Mike released a load of comments, and it looked like I was calling myself a Social Muppet.
Followers of Sarah Brown’s popular feed on the micro-blogging site — received by more than a million people — were startled last week to see her apparently exclaim “fvdfzsrsazxzzxcvbnmadgfhjjkqwrtyuuuiop”
makes as much sense as the Bunker Boys Tim ‘n’ Gabble
169 - Not really a surprise, however Daily Rant certainly not taking that line,
http://page.politicshome.com/images/articles/mail_front_december_11.jpg
I think it’s safe to say that the Populus poll shows people are very confused. People don’t think Darling has done enough but also think the Tories are wrong to want to do more? People like the individual PBR measures and not the Tory approach but the Cam-Osborne lead on economy has risen?
Issue polls are meaningless….
176…”The Brown-Darling team has also improved, by four points to 32 per cent”
181 - I’ve got it, Wage Slave is Gordon Brown’s son and that tweet was his attempt to spell Khameroonsjehgdbadbbcxcrhgc
Gabble, give it up. Like you did yesterday.
Oh, sorry.
Blam blam, bugger.
Those Tory foxes are looking in robust health.
96.”Oh, but Labour do need votes in Scotland. The most likely outcome of the next election is that Labour will lose. Labour need to remain the official Opposition, so that they can hope, eventually, to become a home for voters disenchanted with Cameron et al.”
Timothy, you are correct there. But then the Libdems also need to keep their vote here too if they are to sustain some of the losses they make down in the South in those Libdem/Con marginals. Their seat tally up here is not to sniffed at as a percentage of their seats UK wide. The Tories also need every seat they can muster, with that electoral mountain they have to climb to gain a majority, every little helps as they say.
And the SNP, well there is quite a disconnect with their performance in Westminster and Holyrood, they will be hoping to make some gains to maintain some momentum politically. In fact, every part of the UK is going to matter whether you are defending your position in one area or trying to make inroads elsewhere. No one can afford to write off any part of the UK map.
125- Hi Roger- Osborne is such an excruciatingly bumbling, toff, underwhelming, unlikeable, front man for the Tories. He would be the character in a film that would last for about 20 mns before meeting his despicable end, much to the audiences delight.
A plea to our many Tory contributors here. Do you seriously think Osborne should be your shadow chancellor?
188 - Yes.
184 - Ah yes Darling who got just 1/2 point of total porkie pie rating on FactCheck. Lie to win. A glorious moment for this government…
http://www.channel4.com/news/articles/uk/factcheck+flat+spending+cuts/3457562
Funny that the Mirror uses the same word Hypocrite in its headline. Didnt Gabble use that earlier…
188 - Personally, I’d rather Ken Clarke had been in position to kill off Labour yesterday.
But I know I’d rather have Osborne than ANYONE from that discredited shambles that form the ‘Government’
182 That’s a really good angle from the DM.
Local Yorks news describes Quentin as a Labour MP but then he’s ‘local’???
138.”Saw Tom Bradby at the Tory Conference. He was smaller than I’d expected [not small just smaller than I'd thought]. He’s a good looking chap though.”
Sally, the posh floppy haired one is quite cute.
Oops, caught typing this with the other half looking on. 
174. Hah. Very good. They odd, aren’t they, these foreign jonnies in thrillers who speak fluent English - yet who lapse into their French or German vernacular whenever the author can think of a peculiarly telling word in French or German that adds a bit of charcteristic mystery and exoticism.
That said, I just watched Raymond Blanc in BBC2’s The Restaurant, and he spoke fairly flawless English for three minutes, then ended by shrugging expressively and doing an air-pout and saying “bonne chance”.
Go figure, as the Americans say, while holding a revolver.
Quentin Davis = deep cover
189- bless my poor pathetic saddo!
183 - Given this poll will have been taken immediately afterwards, it only increases the confusion. Also, at the end of the day, who wants the nasty medicine, nobody, but it is clear that the public realise it has to come sometime.
It isn’t exactly surprising people want to put that off as long as possible (it is like tax rises, nobody wants them, they want them to be imposed on other people). Still work for the Tories to do on explaining why that in their opinion this is a far worse option, than cutting come 2010.
Has Dacre had an argument with Brown? They seem to be gunning for the govt on nearly all fronts now…
197 - Saddo? Charming.
192 - Couldn’t agree with you more.
Hmm. I’m off the evening but I do wonder if we may be heading for a period where the terrain may be the least sub optimal its going to be for Labour given how apocalypitically sub optimal it is for Labour.
A spring where the economy is recovering enough for some people to be feeling better/less worse ( see the UK Polling Report stuff on economic confidence) however an economy still sick enough for enough people to feel they’d like the morphine drip still running and the strong nurse to stay in charge.
Is it possible that the Q3 contraction pushing recovery till spring might actaully have been “Good for Labour”
Recovery equals restored primacy of time for change narrative equals crushing Tory win.
Great Recession equals punish the ****** who get us here equals Crushing Tory win.
Post viral fugue/hangover stage equals maybe we’d still like the medicine and not back to work yet equals 28% to 30% Labour polling?
tyson. Lovely to have you around.
‘Do you seriously think Osborne should be your shadow chancellor?’
Yes I do.
But I accept he’s not ‘telligenic’.
George will grow on you.
He’s lovely. And quite tall.
186. You, The Times and the rest of Murdoch’s lackeys are spinning for all they’re worth.
The Populus poll is all good news for Labour, despite The Times headline, and the people have resisted the over-the-top MSM negativity.
199 - The Mail know that they can’t keep peddling a line so against their readership any longer.
188.”A plea to our many Tory contributors here. Do you seriously think Osborne should be your shadow chancellor?2
Yes, after years of Brown and Balls playing politics rather than hard headed economics, it will make a nice change.
192- David- look at Vince Cable. A towering colossus compared to Osborne.
I think Osborne is probably a good strategist in a slippery, slimey, unlikeable way. But best kept under the floor boards. Ed Balls is a better performer than Osborne, and that really is saying something.
Tories on here can’t see that Osborne is their equivalent of Ed Balls.
useless poll. small sample and it appears it wasnt even weighted:
‘Populus interviewed a random sample of 514 adults aged over 18 by telephone between December 9 and 10. Interviews were conducted across the country’
208 - Rubbish.
201 (cont) Should have added, no particular fan of the Squeak-meister, but would back Clarke and Hammond over the likes of Cooper-Balls any day.
As Yo-Sushi founder said when asked why he backed Labour at previous election (2005 I think) even though he expressed a lot of doubt and dismay, in his opinion they were still the better overall team. This time when asked, he couldn’t / wouldn’t repeat that sentiment.
199,205 And they will pop in a nice piccy of Sarah in a frock every so often, just to take the edge off.
208 - If he is so bad Labour, yourself and others would not be attacking him on a daily basis? Your actions speak louder than words.
203-206- young Osborne must tug on your maternal instincts. Quite sweet really. Off to watch Newsnight. Good night all
204 - You are clearly mad.
The UK arm of ‘the evil Murdoch empire’ has its Xmas party next week and we’re being divided in areas between the papers. The Times is a bar, the Sunday Times a wine bar, the NOTW is a pub and The Sun is a nightclub.
The papers are quite different as anyone who reads them would know. To suggest that the ’spinning’ is being done in tandem all over Wapping is not credible.
Meanwhile, the PBR is a car crash. Your hibernation last night served to prove that.
Wootton Bassett.
Sparks might fly…
207 - I’d also rather have Vince Cable than any of the current shambles. What is your point?
208. No-one is equal to Balls. Osborne would never do an ‘Allen’. He’s got better manners and more sense.
ON Topic
“Praise the prodigious pundit and punter’s protagonist for promopt posting of pb polling!” said Peter the Punter to Peter from Putney in a pub far from Peshawar but closer to Poole.
OFF Topic
MIKE HUCKABEE
Speaking of polls, Politico.com is reporting one that has Huckabee running even (or close enough for govt work) with Obama.
Still doesn’t change my view that Huckabee has been hit below the waterline by his clemency to a wayward Arkansas felon then serving 95-year sentence, who subsequently killed four cops in a WA State coffeeshop.
Methnks Huckabee’s op-ed published this week by Seattle Times was pretty lame-o, Dann-o.
But at least there is a big family angle to the murdered law officers story, similar to that beloved of right-wing social conservatives. Similar but not positive. For starters, the 4 police leave behind 9 children. PLUS there are I think 7 friends and family of the murderer who are in jail right now charged with aiding, abetting, and in some cases as accessories before as well as after the crime. (In this context note that at a few of the killer’s relatives did contact and provide info to police.)
Thing is, this story hasn’t percolated to the rest of the country. Not yet. BUT can’t see how it’s not going to be a bear trap on Huckabee’s still ample butt after the New Year.
BTW it took about three hours for the MASSIVE contingent of officers representing law enforcement from across the US and Canada to drive from the staging area to the Tacoma Dome, site of last Tuesday’s memorial service. Which was televised live by most Western WA TV stations. Inside the Dome vast sea of blue, with one sizeable patch of red - over 1k RCMPs in theior red Mountie uniforms.
WA STATE 3rd CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT: Rep. Brian Baird (D) announces he is not running for reelection in 2010.
This just after Congressman Baird made a spectacle of himself by voting against the House Democrats health care bill. Not because he’s a Blue Dog, but because he’s a weirdo. Has been voting more conservative, but is quirky as hell. So neither Dems or GOP like him.
But neither was in much position to do anything about it . . . until Baird announced he was flying the Capitol Hill coop. Now both are earger at the prospect of electing a new Represenative. But both are also apprehensive in the face of unknown knowns, known unknowns, etc, etc.
Republican note that the district voted solidly for Obama and has been held by Baird (who knocked off GOP incumbent and Sarah Palin precursor Linda Smith) since 1998 election. Democrats note that 2010 is shaping up to be a challenging year, that the 3rd district voted twice for W. And prospective candidates of both parties are multiplying their Christmas card lists and fishing for invitations to holiday parties across the district. Largest population centers are Clark County (Vancouver WA suburb of Portland, Oregon) and Thurston Co (Olympia) with rest of distict divided between six other counties.
183 sam
Issue polls are meaningless….
But your précis is entirely believable.
216 - Indeed, I think only Lord Ashdown and William Hague will get out alive.
This could be awesome.
Piers Morgan could prove he’s still more than a fat celeb judge…
Bet he doesn’t
208. tim reaches around, once again, and scratches….
ooooh….. the relief….. eh tim?
Scratch, scratch, scratch.
188. tyson December 10th, 2009 at 10:29 pm
Not really a Tory, just anti-Labour, but fwiw I’m unworried by the idea of Osborne as Chancellor. Or rather, I don’t see a better candidate for the job in any party (I think Clarke is past it).
222 - Wonder if anybody will mention those photos if he gets uppity?
202: The general public dont really understand how bad the financial position is but the the newspapers do. The media turned on Labour yesterday and they will not turn back before the general election.
It will be bad news stories everyday from now on for Labour.
Osborne is exceptionally astute, that’s why he is being attacked.
#219, SSI - in first line, last part of “quotation” please strike “close” and insert “proximate”.
tyson’s probably gone but if you are still there you should listen to his spat.
And how old do you think I am? Maternal instincts indeed!
Let’s never forget, Piers Morgan was responsible for these lies
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/english/doc/2004-05/15/xin_2005011511005841306218.jpg
220. Take your point - they’re meaningless not in that they’re inexplicable but because they indicate how confused most people are about policy - so they’re not a useful guide to voting intention which is the only thing that actually matters…
Only one in eight voters believes that Alistair Darling’s spending and tax proposals will be sufficient to deal with Britain’s economic and financial problems, according to a special Populus poll for The Times.
The poll, taken on Wednesday evening and yesterday morning, reveals growing worries over public spending cuts and over Tory plans. Nonetheless, trust in David Cameron and George Osborne on the economy has risen to a new high.
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/pbr/article6952476.ece
Lib Dems looking a bit rubbish in Scotland.
226 - I think that is a very good point. Reeling off massive numbers means f##k all to most people, however the papers especially giving clear cut examples of what it really means can swings lots of votes.
I think one of the most effective things (and something the Tories have done a couple of ads with) is telling people how much they are effectively in debt, breaking these pie in the sky numbers down to what it means to each individual, or each individual family.
“David Cameron, the Tory leader, submitted a claim for £1,081 in mortgage interest, two days after condemning the system as “wrong”.”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6952532.ece
The question is, can you see Douglas Hogg’s moat from Quentin Davies’s bell tower? As neighbouring Lincolnshire MPs, the pair boast two of the more recherché politically notable architectural features in the east Midlands, and it would be nice to think that on a clear day they could look upon each other’s works and despair along with the rest of us.
For the purists, of course, Labour’s Davies will always be the Salieri to Tory Hogg’s Mozart, with even his most audacious work failing to touch the inspired majesty of Hogg’s full-time housekeeper and piano-tuning bills. But the defence minister and member for Grantham and Stamford was very much the breakout star of the new tranche of expenses revelations, as it emerged he had submitted a receipt for £20,700 for work on the “bell tower and lead gutter” of his second (stately) home, before withdrawing it – most enigmatically - 10 days after the Daily Telegraph began publishing expenses revelations in May.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/dec/10/quentin-davies-bell-tower-expenses
184. Gabble December 10th, 2009 at 10:27 pm
Why post a link to an article, then post excerpts from it in five separate posts?
213 - tories on here attack Balls all the time, does that mean they’re scared of him.
Of course not.
Balls and osborne are both turn offs.
Hammond is far more credible.
231 - Perhaps the electorate view that both parties approach is wrong, but that the Tories approach is less wrong, than Labour’s approach
Quentin Davis is a complete tw@t. Phil Neville when sold to Everton is referred to as deep cover due to his ability to score own goals/give free kicks away when Man U play Everton.
Nice crib in the country though
A defence minister submitted a claim for £20,700 to repair a bell tower and the roof of his country home, it emerged yesterday, as a new slew of receipts heaped more humiliation on MPs.
Parliament’s website published hundreds of thousands of pages of new claims from 2008-09 totalling more than £10 million. They showed that numerous retiring MPs continued to milk the system despite the public outcry at the widespread abuse of the second-home allowance.
Quentin Davies, the Labour MP for Grantham & Stamford, submitted an invoice in February for repairs to a bell tower and roof at Frampton Hall, in Lincolnshire. The defence minister, who defected from the Tories in 2007, was reimbursed for a quarter of his claim after the parliamentary authorities ruled that he had exceeded the £24,006 annual maximum. The claim exceeded the average pay of an army private, which is £20,449.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6952532.ece
208.”Tories on here can’t see that Osborne is their equivalent of Ed Balls.”
I would rather have a younger Chancellor surrounded by older and wiser heads than Brown surrounded by his little school boy coterie of sycophants to scared to tell him when he is wrong. What was the average age of his little band of Brownites when he entered the Treasury? Balls, Alexander, Ed Miliband, Cooper etc? I reckon that Osborne has got a stronger and more experienced team surrounding him now, and not bad having at least four former Chancellors in a successful government to call upon as well.
Brown’s economic expert was one Ed Balls. Listening to him on Five Live yesterday, it was obvious that the guy has become so arrogant he is utterly incapable of dealing with a political interview live. This is someone who has not learnt to debate effectively at the most basic level.
227. Osborne is obviously smart. But as another posho Bullingdonian millionaire, he is badly juxtapositioned next to Cameron.
I still believe the Tories would be better off having him as Chairman, or another “backroom” role, where he can exercise his talent clandestinely, a la Mandelson in 1997.
He could be brought back to the limelight after the election, when the toffiness of the Tories has been diluted by the new intake of MPs.
239 - Well really who wants massive cuts and massive tax rises. Many people I am sure are trying to kid themselves they aren’t necessary or shouldn’t effect them.
It is a bit like when they did the house price surveys earlier this year, after prices had gone through the floor. A massive percentage of people claimed it wasn’t their house that had dropped in value, even though they all were aware that house prices in general had dropped.
238. Not that I often agree with Tim but I think he’s right that people have instinctive negative reactions to both Balls and Osborne (though more so to Balls). It’s unfortunate because both are pretty clever compared to their colleagues but they just come over as sneery and contemptous.
243 - Sorry, Sean. You can’t have seen the A-list if you think it will be diluted!
The Tory party is posh. Fact.
Economists and opposition politicians rounded on Alistair Darling and the Treasury on Thursday for sleight of hand, omissions and lack of clarity in the pre-Budget report.
The Treasury refused to publish a breakdown of public spending with the result that it was not possible to work out the effects of its plans on public services; it could not say how far it intended to protect the health budget from cuts; it did not follow its past practice of including the effects of population ageing in its long-term projections; it protected the budgets for health, schools and the police for only two of the three years covered by spending plans; and the real increases in child benefit to come in April will be reversed the following year.
An internal Treasury briefing, reported by the Financial Times this week, looked at successful fiscal consolidations around the world and concluded that they should take place in a single stroke with the maximum transparency.
Far from following the lessons of that report, the pre-Budget report pushed Labour on to a different course, economists said.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/aa4256f8-e5c6-11de-b5d7-00144feab49a.html
244. Like 90% of drivers thinking they’re better than average (true statistic)…
Pretty good Populus findings - interesting that the AB demographic is keenest on the bankers’ tax.
Ashdown in slight praise of Maggie shocker
All bets are off on date of the general election
The assumption that the general election will be on May 6 was jolted yesterday after a surge of bets on a March poll.
The speculation, inspired by Conservative politicians and commentators, caused Ladbrokes to stop taking money on a March 25 election date after dozens of three-figure bets. Many of them were placed in the Westminster area, according to the company’s spokesman, David Williams.
The rationale behind the date is that it would remove the need for a pre-election Budget. A Budget cannot happen until three months after a Pre-Budget Report. A March 25 election would require Parliament to be dissolved within three months, ruling out a Budget.
The argument made by Conservative MPs and advisers was that with the public finances in a such a parlous state, Alistair Darling would have nothing to cheer with a pre-election Budget.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6952403.ece
242 - Osborne isn’t interested in economics, he’s interested in political strategy.
And if the Tories are intent on cutting hard, early, risking a double dip, they need someone credible in charge.
Osborne is not.
Newsnight reporting Brown is getting a Tobin Tax through tonight.
238. I agree, tim. Hammond has a sort of boring sober apparently decent gravitas, well suited to the Age of Austerity.
He’s like Vince Cable without the dancing, and Alistair Darling without the history of violent Marxism and venal flipping.
Hammond would be a good choice. Let Osborne exercise his undoubted skills backstage, just for a while.
Don’t know if PB has noted this momentus development yet, but CHELSEA CLINTON IS GETTING MARRIED . . . TO A MAN!
This comes as great shock to right-wing wingnuts who immagined that young Ms Clinton would be sacrificed on the pagan altar of her mother’s political ambition, and thus forced into an unhallowed civil union with a politically-correct lesbian. But no such fate, she’s marrying her long-time boyfriend who is an investment broker and son of not one but two former Members of Congress. And otherwise appears to be a decent guy.
Recently during a interview focusing on Iran, North Korea and other global flash points, reporter asked Hillary her reaction re: Chelsea’s engagement. She went from Secretary of State to Mother of the Bride in about a nannosecond! Which I can’t help thinking is a plus for US foreign policy.
“It will be no surprise if UK public debt has been downgraded by the election; if so, a gilt buyers’ strike will become more than a theoretical possibility. The new government will face a Sisyphian financial task, so formidable as to make almost every other issue of the day look trivial. And Gordon Brown, we predict, will leave office refusing to the last to admit the appalling damage he has done: this monstrous debt, a blight on generations to come, his one and only legacy.”
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/5625503/gordon-browns-one-and-only-legacy.thtml
249, NPMP - familiarity breeds contempt?
Ditto overdrafts!
“Newsnight reporting Brown is getting a Tobin Tax through tonight.”
With who? EU?
252. “242 - Osborne isn’t interested in economics, he’s interested in political strategy.”
The entire PBR was a half-arsed political exercise from a discredited government, that has given up governing, and deserves to die, and it wasn’t even good politically.
We bring Balls up like babies bring up vommit. When he’s already on the lips and when he have to.
Dannatt comments could be dynamite for El Gordo.
249 - As an initial response it looks good on some specifics, but on the basic general trust question the 14% deficit for Darling must be worrying if “it is the economy stupid”.
On Osborne he isn’t a good communicator and Hammond is much more public in these things I suspect deliberately. Labour’s one good media performer on the economy is Byrne which is why his performance in the past couple of days must be disappointing. It is interesting watching Labour trying to shift from milk and honey towards to bread and water.
249. Nick, the poll is farcically useless. A tiny sample, and full of clumsy leading questions.
“Do you agree we should try like the government and not choke off the recovery or take a massive risk like the Tories….”
etc etc
234:Here in Ireland the Irish government have been attacked by everyone for months. Cowen is hated here as much as Brown is in Britain.
Yesterday in the irish budget the government made big cutbacks in spending.
Everybody moaned about it but everybody knew it was coming. The government is still disliked but it has won a bit more respect from people especially from the media.
Brown made a big mistake yesterday by making some spending cuts he could have won some respect from the media. He didnt do it, he will pay the price.
I can’t stand Osborne but that isn’t going to stop me swapping my vote from the lib dems to the tories next time. Labour need kicking out.
260. I have actually felt sorry for Liam Byrne these last few days. He’s like a Christian maiden sent out into the ape-filled Colosseum drenched with the urine of mandrills in estrus.
Paddy Ashdown is reminding me why I was tempted to vote for him.
264. Is that a sneak-preview?
So they did the poll immediately after the PBR, so people didnt get the chance to fully digest the details and i agree, 514 is such a small useless sample, you need a sample of at least 1500 to be credible.
Wait a few days until the main detail has been digested, then do it.
252 tim
Osborne’s political career would be best served by him not being Chancellor after the election. As a first rate political strategist he will know this. Also Hammond has upped his game as he has been more frequently pushed in front of the cameras and journalists.
I can see Osborne being given a Mandelsonian role after the election supervising a multi-ministry approach to economic recovery (i.e. bring the Treasury together with the spending ministries). Hammond in this structure would be CoE but ‘reporting’ to Osborne.
Will it happen? Maybe only a 33% chance. Cameron is a cautious and traditional operator. Maybe this could be the result of his first reshuffle rather than an initial line-up.
“You should be fired: Sugar takes aim at Culture spokesman”
“The Shadow Culture Secretary faced calls to resign last night after being asked to refund £9,500 in parliamentary expenses paid for a home where his agent stayed rent-free.
Jeremy Hunt admitted that Margaret Chellingworth stayed at the property in his Farnham constituency for several nights each week between November 2003 and June 2006.”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6952556.ece
260 - Sometimes I think a parties opponents spot these things before supporters.
I’ve been saying for ages that Hammond and Warsi are big positives for the Tories, and that Grayling and Osborne are liabilites.
I think most people have now come round to that view
204 You missed the bit where the public place Cameron/Osborne 14% ahead of Brown/Darling, in terms of managing the economy. We are informed that this is a “record” lead, according to Populus.
Bashing the bankers is popular, we know that. Holding down public sector pay is fairly popular, overall, but not with public sector workers, whose willingness to vote Labour will be diminished. And the private sector workers who approve of it will still favour the Conservatives, anyway. Raising NI may be considered a necessity, but they’re not going to thank the government for it.
So, my reading of this poll is that the government is f*cked.
260. Byrne was dire on ITV tonight. My other half looked up from his book bemused. Maybe he can’t defend the indefensible. In fact, when you consider Darling’s dire efforts, Byrne’s failure and Ball’s outburst, it suggests they are rattled.
If the story in the times mentioned above is correct and it was Brown/Balls who stopped action being taken, Balls’ ‘reputation’ may be on on the block.
265. The Screaming Eagles December 10th, 2009 at 11:02 pm
“Paddy Ashdown is reminding me why I was tempted to vote for him.”
I think he, and not Kennedy, is the leader the LDs have been missing.
267 - I agree with that 100%, and have put more money on Hammond this week.
I’d put the chances higher.
Paddy Ashdown is a real asset to this country. Why the hell wasn’t he nominated to EU foreign high poombah?
267 - I think in that scenario, Paddy Powers odds of 8/1 on Philip Hammond being Chancellor after the election seem quite attractive.
263 - good man! Welcome aboard.
268. Quoting Alan Sugar? Do you have any idea what that makes you look like?
274 - Easy answer to that, Gordon Brown.
ITV News just described Quentin Davies as “Miniminister of defence”
Good lineup on QT. Fat Bald Labour hoon getting no applause.
272 I agree. Although I think he is a conservative.
We also forget that this poll was done before all Darlings proposals got found out out as rippoffs and completely full of holes, give it a day or two to sink in.
We always like LibDems leaders - once they’ve [been] pushed off.
272 - I’m more of a fan of Ashdown than I am of Kennedy. But I agree with your sentiments.
With Kennedy, Ashdown or Yellow Submarine as Lib Dem leader now, the Lib Dems would be ahead of Labour, by some distance.
279 When he swapped sides, Labour’s loss was our gain.
FT front page is a bit worrying
http://page.politicshome.com/uk/10th_december_2009.html
274 “Paddy Ashdown is a real asset to this country. Why the hell wasn’t he nominated to EU foreign high poombah?”
Because it had to be someone from the CND high command. Russia had a veto it is rumoured.
263 You don’t have to be Conservative to vote Conservative.
Morris Dancer et al
The Renault team will race on in Formula 1 next year after a deal was struck to secure its future, BBC Sport has learned.
The company had considered its future in F1, but sources say its team will continue under new owners with Renault keeping a minority 25% shareholding.
The team are set to be notified at their headquarters on Friday, with an official announcement likely next week.
It has also been agreed that the team will race as Renault in 2010.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/motorsport/formula_one/8407138.stm
Been looking forward to a ComRes poll all evening but looks like it’s not coming.
263, AnnaK - Believe that Irish of this millenium are more realistic about the stark nature of current fiscal crisis than are British or Americans.
For us its more of a folk memory, like bellbottoms and big hair.
Agree with you, Brown would have done better to be Mack the Knife. Though perhaps not with certain sectors of a niche electorate. Which could be the best target for Labour’s GE 2010 campaign. That is, votes that can hold down Conservative wins in marginals (esp. north of the Wash) and help achieve the softest possible landing: Tory minority or majority under 50.
272 - Quite possibly. I had an awful lot of respect for Paddy and Charles was someone who could command an audience. My belief that Kennedy would be better now for the LibDems is he would have tacked left a bit and could easily have picked up more Labour voters.
260 - I’ve been an admirer of Hammond for some time. Warsi has upped her game considerably in the past few months and the amount of Labour supporter friends who praised her after QT against Griffin was impressive. What they said about Straw was unprintable. I have opined before that if they win and after the cutting is over I expect Osborne to be sacrificed from the front line with Hammond elevated to the CoE position. Osborne doesn’t have to be liked. Lets be honest Howe was never popular, but he has to do the job required of him.
Well done Angus Reid on releasing the data tables so quickly , it is a pity that Populus have yet again failed to release their data tables from their poll earlier this week .
I wonder how GIN is. He was having a tooth pulled today.
283 - Maybe in Pants-down or Kennedy were in charge they would also have the authority to tell Saint Vince to shut his gob a bit more, work out a proper well thought out plan of action (which is he more than capable of doing), rather engaging mouth trying to be the BBC’s “independent” financial expert and rent-a-quote on the economy.
277 - Look at Camerons quote at 115.
Sugar is agreeing with him.
289, SallyC - bingo!
268 Jeremy Hunt is one who should be out of a job after the election. Not because he is no good, but because the Culture Department is pointless and can be abolished.
In any case, I object to there being a Culture Department in what is supposed to be a free democracy.
293.Are they often late?
285. MTF. It probably contains the detail on this
The predictable is happening. Yesterday afternoon the price of UK government debt started to fall. Today it has plunged. As the price falls so the interest rate the government has to pay for future borrowings goes up. Yesterday’s foolish insouciance of a Pre Budget Report comes with a high price.
http://www.johnredwoodsdiary.com/2009/12/10/interest-rates-up-government-bonds-down/
242, 252 etc: I think our political opponents have at last appreciated their foolish mistake of underestimating Cameron, but all except the most astute of them still underestimate Osborne. This is mainly because he looks and sounds too young. I made the same mistake when he was first appointed Shadow Chancellor.
It’s a big mistake. (Our friend tim doesn’t make that mistake, incidentally, despite what he says). The more you find out about Osborne, and the more you read his speeches, the more you realise (or should, if you have any political sense) that he is absolutely top-notch. He will make a superb Chancellor, especially at a time when political guile will be essential in order to sell an extremely difficult message. The entire role of the Chancellor for the next few years will involve political packaging of the detailed measures which Hammond and his team will be working on. This is not a role for the faint-hearted or the politically clumsy.
Meanwhile Darling, who until yesterday looked likely to come out of the sorry years of the Blair-Brown government with his reputation pretty intact, now sadly seems to have hitched his star to Brown’s fantasies. Pity. He seems to have decided to be just like the rest of them.
297 Bingo players vote Tory!
269. tim December 10th, 2009 at 11:04 pm
“I think a parties opponents spot these things before supporters”
Yes, sometimes. Maybe it depends on whether the opponent has an instinctive understanding of the type of voter the other party is trying to attract? As a Blairite you probably have a feel for the kind of message/image the Tories are trying to project. (And I don’t mean that in a “New Labour = Tories” sense, just that Labour in 1997 and the Tories now are trying to fish in the same pond.)
More widely, I’m not sure the principle holds. Harriet Harman might be an example of a politician who is derided by the other side but is probably quite appealing to her own potential voter-pool.
Regarding specifics, I think you’re right about Hammond, Warsi and Grayling. Especially Grayling. I don’t see Osborne as a liability though. His strengths outweigh his weaknesses, I would say.
Thinking about the Populus poll further, it is often the case that individual budgetary measures record majority support, even as support for the government declines (eg Dennis Healey’s budgets in the 1970s).
This is likely to be on the basis that people feel, given the mess that we’re in, particular measures are justified, but they feel no gratitude to the government that has got them into that mess.
Also, the losers from a budget feel much more resentment than the rest feel gratitude. Private sector workers may approve of the fact that public sector workers will have their wages capped - but they’ll still favour the party that they consider represents their interests, the Conservatives. Public sector workers will be very angry, and while they won’t switch to the Conservatives, they will be disinclined to vote Labour.
So far we have Dannatt, Hague & Ashdown showing real class. Rest are looking useless.
252: ‘Newsnight reporting Brown is getting a Tobin Tax through tonight.’
No they didn’t. They said the idea is still floating around and ‘refusing to die’.
300 – Good post Richard N, I think you’ve hit every nail on the head there.
Oh dear. I am rather embarrassed at quality of my 301 being juxtopostioned with Richard at 300.
296 Huh? The rules unfortunately allow Hunt to maintain a house in Farnham on the taxpayer. He is surely allowed to have house guests.
The real scandal is Gordon who has No 10 paid for by the state, and claims the second home allowance on his place in Scotland. So despite drawing salary of the thick end of £200K, he has to maintain no residence in either London or his constituency, because we pay instead. Nice.
Re Osbourne, question is likely going to boil down to, can he allow another - and in particular Hammond - to occupy this great office of state without lessening or risking his (Ozie’s) longterm AND shortterm political position?
304 - Is that a surprise? Rammell is useless at the best of time, and well Piers stick to talent shows and the inssssii….share trading…
304 - Agree, Enjoyed Dimbleby putting Salma Yacoub in her place.
Salma Yaqoob is quite awful, isn’t she.
Bedford, Kingsbrook ward
Lib Dems 660; Labour 370; Con 150; Ind1 85; Ind2 73
LD HOLD
Nuneaton, Camp Hill ward
Labour 670, BNP 478, Con 275
Lab gain from BNP
267, 274 etc - You are absolutely wasting your money. There is not a snowflake’s chance in hell* of Osborne not being Chancellor in a Cameron government.
* A technical term meaning you would need odds of at least 20-1 to make this a value bet.
If the Tories win, do people think Paddy Pants-down would ever take up a role for Cameron to do with something like Afghanistan?
I seriously hope, Cameron can find a decent job for Paddy Ashdown in his government.
272:Spending cuts are a risk Brown should have taken. Your average decent Labour voter would still vote Labour come the election I cant see them voting for the BNP or liking Nick Clegg who in their eyes would be seen as a bit of a toff.
Brown played his cards wrong and will go down in history as the man who did not do, what was right for the country.
315 Like most politicans he has a huge ego - so yes [I'd be quite happy for that].
300. “Meanwhile Darling, who until yesterday looked likely to come out of the sorry years of the Blair-Brown government with his reputation pretty intact, now sadly seems to have hitched his star to Brown’s fantasies. Pity. He seems to have decided to be just like the rest of them.”
It is possible that as bad as the PBR was that Darling prevented it from being even worse. I wouldn’t assume Darling gave up fighting and fell in with Brown and Blinky.
Ashdown is the winner in my opinion.
313 - Good. One less BNPer. I’d vote Labour if it stopped the BNP. Racism is never acceptable and I REALLY despise this Labour govt. LDs continue to do well in Bedford…
315 Wasn’t he proposed for the role of High Representative in Afghanistan, and vetoes by Karzai on the grounds that he was not sufficiently in favour of nepotism and corruption?
314 - I agree.
282. The Screaming Eagles December 10th, 2009 at 11:09 pm
“With Kennedy, Ashdown or Yellow Submarine as Lib Dem leader now …”
Ah, now you’re talking.
What I would like to see is Yellow Submarine as Lib Dem leader, under that name. Heck, I would vote for that.
SSI - That’s the same polling sample as the one yesterday that is 5% skewed to the GOP on registered voters compared to last year’s real result. McCain did not lose by 2% as far as I can recall!
You can see why they do this, so they can claim dramatic swings, but it’s poor polling practice.
313 Two very poor results for the Conservatives , vote share well down in both cases
319 glw - Maybe, but Darling put his name to it, Darling delivered it as though it were a Party Political Broadcast, and Darling hid the cuts which the numbers imply. He takes the rap.
252.Really? I thought that was the problem with Gordon Brown, and that myth perpetuated for long enough. It still amazes me how long he got away without any real scrutiny or questioning by the political lobby while Chancellor.
Osborne on the other hand has been more honest even in opposition. The fact that this government is so keen to undermine and discredit him and that IHT policy above everything else is an indication of just what a mess they are in, and how much of that mess they place at the door of Cameron and Osborne. Osborne is the Tory Shadow Chancellor that finally undermined and burst the Brown bubble, and he can take a lot of credit for seeing off the Brown honeymoon that saw him bottle that Autumn GE.
He has a better record as Shadow Chancellor than Gordon has as PM, he earned his spurs and deserves to be the next Tory Chancellor if they win the GE. It always amazes me to see the way that Osborne is constantly talked down for that role in government after he has been so successful in the role in opposition. I don’t think that Clarke, Hammond, Fallon or whoever could have done a better job than Osborne did in the role. I thought that we liked to reward success in this country rather than penalise it.
322. Yes that’s more or less it.
319 - ‘I wouldn’t assume Darling gave up fighting and fell in with Brown and Blinky.’
According to Nick Robinson tonight, Treasury sources are complaining that that’s precisely what happened.
No Comres then. Must have been held back. Anthony thought there may not have been time for a full VI anyway. The twit said ‘reaction’. So it could be similar to the Populus ie waste of time.
Are we supposed to take the view seriously that a Private should be paid mor than an MP mecause it comes from a bereaved mother?
Government Minister versus grieving mother.
No contest.
320 - Paddy’s experience will always be fantastic in this kind of discussion. I agree with the above. I would hope that he could be moved into a senior role in Afghanistan. Actually Dannatt and Ashdown could make a formidable team.
This is very uncomfortable. Comparing salaries is really quite pointless.
If you try to shove in these results into electoralcalculus.co.uk, then the Tories get a majority of 174 (although bugger-all in Scotland), and this is without the PBR effect.
I’m going to enjoy watching the PBR reverberate through the suburbs; the South, Midlands and Wales will be Labour-free save a few in the major cities, huddling together for warmth…
So Darling is a wimp. No Howe.
Just turned News 24 on, during the paper review and they mentioned that there has been a lot of betting today on a March election.
Been reading here I assume.
Westminster-Queen’s Park ward
Lab 814, Con 211, Green 152, LD 123
Lab hold
330. Darling can only do so much without risking being replaced, and letting Balls take his job. There’s no doubt that Darling seems to have given ground, but that’s not the same as saying Brown got everything he wanted. Sorry if I seem to be unduly fair towards Darling but I honestly believe that he’s done quite a bit to stop Brown from causing even more problems than he already has.
Bow down, Labouroids. Bow down before George Osborne, your dread nemesis. The man who destroyed Labour.
Bow down.
Cuts in public services raise threat of pre-election strike
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/pbr/article6952534.ece
Ashdown demolishes Dannatt and ties Camerons mistake into it.
Hastings- St Helens
Con 609 Lab 550 LD 210 BNP 93 EngDem 36
Con hold, 10.5% from Con to Lab since 2006
338 – Keith, OGH was postulating a March election only yesterday.
Personally I’m still with May 6th.
340 But Darling could have holed them beow the water line. He had that over them. He could have stood his ground. They would never risk his resignation statement.
Rushmoor Borough Council, Heron Wood Ward
Lab 437; LD 354; Con 259.
Lab gain from LD
332 When you vote, you are exercising political authority, you’re using force. And force my friends is violence. The supreme authority from which all other authorities are derived.
The soldier is the ultimate political post.
As politician, soldiers work harder that vote fodder labour mps.
What is tim’s Twitter name?
* camiknickers
Kirstie Alsopp’s voice is on a par with tinnitus for making me want to clear my ears with sharpened nine inch tent pegs.
H/T Tom Harris
For all you election anoraks:
Result tonight of by-election in Peterborough City Council West Ward:
Con 1252 Lab 341 LD 224 UKIP 177 Eng Dem 93 Green 58
Poll=34%
Well that was dramatic.
Ashdown reduced Dannatt to a wimper and Hague to spluttering.
350 - Welcome back SJMP, thanks for the result.
350,stewart hide,tim will be after you
Wasnt there a pbr this week?? Not according to QT!!
347 - That’s interesting. I used to live in Rushmoor.
Back then, this was a rock solid Labour seat, in fact the safest in the borough I think. I was surprised to see that they ever lost it.
345 - Yes, that’s why I supposed he read it here.
351 - Take your blinkers off Tim.
Ashdown had a good point there.
Dannatt should have stayed neutral for a lot longer, and Cameron shouldn’t have announced his peerage at Conference.
Front Pages. (Sky)
http://tinyurl.com/ykthkya
343: “Ashdown demolishes Dannatt.. ”
bit partisan..
oh,
a tim post,
whuddaguessed
Isn’t George Galloway leader of Respect? Or has he gone to play a cat full time?
343.Does he really, I thought that he undermined himself there a bit?
Andrea! Do tonight’s local results indicate that while Labour’s overall electoral position is problematic, that at least some core Labour supporters are girding their loins and deciding to stick with the old party at least for the duration.
Almost by definition this is an older and in some cases at least wiser vote. Not a sign of Labour recovery as of survival. And that a semi-soft landing is not out of the cards for Mandybell & Co.
358 - I see the Mirror are up to their old tricks again.
Daily Mail front page, “Labour’s class war explodes in its face”
Catchy, but not as good as yesterday’s Sun
351 - Tim. Not watching QT. Why was that, was Paddy answering a straight question?
That is not a nice picture of Quentin Davies on the front of the Express
361 - You can’t see the wood for the trees.
Stewart Jackson knows a tree surgeon.
360 - I tried to keep up with Respect and lost track. They appear to have done the hard left routine of splitting, resplitting, coalescing and splitting again. The SWP seemed to cause a lot of the problems.
357 - The timing was poor, but lets not forget that Ashdown wasn’t embarrassed to mention his military past. We do need less amateur hour in the MoD and I hope he can help the politicians…
355 The Libdems won this ward in 2004 and 2008 , Labour in 2003/2006/2007 and a previous byelection in 2007 . I forecast Labour gains tonight in Nuneaton / Rushmoor and Wyre Forest , the latter result still to come .
Behold, the genius of Gordo’s bank tax
Banks may opt to absorb the cost of the UK’s 50 per cent supertax on bonuses, rather than pass on the cost to bankers, it emerged on Thursday.
Several of the big US banks, and some UK banks, conceded in private that they were nervous of cutting the bonuses of City staff, partly for fear of causing internal friction, and partly to avoid having top staff picked off by bolder rivals or hedge funds.
“I think the banks will eat the tax,” said one senior executive at a US investment bank. “I don’t think the bankers will feel it.”
“Banks will absorb more of this than the Treasury thinks,” said another. “There is always a move among banks towards the highest common denominator on pay, because it’s such a fiercely competitive environment for talent.”
If that view is replicated, it will infuriate the government, which had hoped to see bonuses shrink dramatically as a result of the emergency tax. It has predicted that the levy would raise only £550m, mainly because it expects the City bonus pool, estimated at up to £12bn by some bankers, to be cut in an attempt to avoid the tax.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a429bcf0-e5cd-11de-b5d7-00144feab49a.html
diane abbott is modelling a condom..
Argument was completely undermined by previous debate over lack of experience! You cant moan at amature politians then moan at ex-generals offering advice!!!
364 That headline, next to a picture of Jackie and her extra porn video’s…..
355. Their safest ward is North Town now (well, that’s the only ward they won in 2008 locals). And just in Heron Wood and Wellington are still in contention.
At this rate the Mirror will surely run a McBride inspired campaign come the GE.
346. But that’s just it. Darling doesn’t want Balls to get the job, Brown doesn’t want to see Darling resign or have to sack him as it would undermine his own position. They are to an extent deadlocked, and therefore need to compromise. The fact that Darling is still in the job makes me think he must be achieving something, if he was being completely overruled I’d expect him to go.
343 Really tim? Not on the TV I’m watching; maybe the signals distorted ‘up North’. You should get your aerial adjusted,or tune in to another channel other than ‘Botvision’. I haven’t seen Dannatt in action before; he was quite good. Ashdown was his usual puffed up self; a man in love with his own reflection.
358 - Mirror back to Cameron bashing. The fact is it doesn’t resonate on to the neutral on the newsstands. Glad to see Posh channelling Herr Flick.
376 You might be right.
Goodnight all.
Something worth reposting from the last thread, the IFS analysis of the PBR
‘Alistair Darling’s pre-budget report signalled that all of the increase in spending on public services by Labour in its second and third terms of government will be entirely reversed during the next parliament, the Institute for Fiscal Studies said today.’
Entirely reversed. So Labour was elected in 2001 and 2005 for no purpose whatever.
Nick Cohen = Top Bloke
381 - Normally I like him, but tonight he’s talking bollocks.
NC looks like a top bloke to you tim?
I see your problem now.
380 They managed to have a couple of wars.
“Will MPs never learn?”
“…we have seen David Cameron over claiming on his mortgage interest, an amount which was deducted from his expense payment.”
http://financialadvice.co.uk/news/3/householdbills/13032/Will-MPs-never-learn.html
Just noticed that the only comment on a thread on Conservativehome comes from Martin Day.
I presume this is the same Martin Day who used to give Tim a run for his money here in the posts-per-day stakes.
Does anyone know why he never posts here any more?
Did Mike finally ban him for life?
385 - Still no comment on Darling’s FactCheck Gabble? Thought not…
386. He went terminally OTT one night and was perma-banned.
362 Possibly. But, parties that are starting from a low base can make very impressive gains in local by-elections, while still remaining a long way behind their opponents, in terms of their vote share.
The Conservatives gained 20 seats, net, after May 1996, up till the general election, but that was from a very low starting point. Most of these seats had last been fought in 1995, when the Conservatives were 22% behind Labour. They still finished up 13% behind Labour in 1997, but that still enabled them to regain council seats along the way.
I don’t know where this idea comes from that Balls = Osborne. You almost want to applaud the thoroughgoing dishonesty of the claim.
Tories love Ed Balls. You don’t hear Tories saying he’s useless and should be sacked - what you hear is Tories saying we want the bugger on TV more often because he’s such a huge asset.
Labourcreeps, in contrast, are desperate to get Osborne out of the inner circle because he has been absolutely devastating and they rightly fear him. They’re right to. He’s destroyed their credibility, he’s driving the agenda from Opposition and he’s even taken away their wiggle room on GE timing. He’s in charge and they know it.
You can smell it: abject, existential dread of the man who’s going to sweep them away. Labour looks at Osborne like the Holy Roman Emperor looked at Napoleon. It’s pure fear. Visceral, bowel-melting, pant-cacking fear.
386 - He did go rather off the rails one Saturday evening. His posts had to be removed and he is no longer of this parish. He also appears on Dale’s Diary occasionally.
386 - He’s been banned following a night of drunken posting.
369. Mark, Lab gain in Weymouth too. Jim Knight just twittered it but he didn’t give full figures
AR poll minus Scotland
Con 42.1% : Lab 21.2% : LD 20.3% : Others 16.4%
Labour MP Eric Joyce had expense claims frozen
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/dec/10/mps-expenses-eric-joyce-claims
Is Falkirk a winnable seat for anyone else? Will this play badly…
394 - Wow, Tories polling more than Lab & Lib Dem combined = Dockside Hooker territory.
362, 389 Also, a week’s results tell you nothing, because of so many odd local factors. A quarter’s results may begin to show you some sort of pattern.
388, 391, 392
Cheers for that. Thought it had to be something like that. It was obvious for a while that OGH had even less patience with Martin than he does with Tim.
NC is actually quite poor @tv arguement.
395 - Last time he just got over 50% of the vote, and he was nearly 30% ahead of the SNP who were in 2nd place.
Tories having some very bad local election results tonight - see vote2007 for details.
393 Yes spotted that Andrea , I did say the other night that there was an outside chance of a Labour gain there . The results tonight are very very poor for the Conservatives .
377. Ashdown is the bl00dy cynosure of sanctimonious narcissistic total self regard.
He is just a willy-waving trouser-dropping payroll-nobbing little Liberal tit. Is he short? He has short man syndrome really bad.
We need to get the odious smug fool on TV more often.
Campbell’s another - the Lib Dem who’s supposedly an expert on foreign affairs. It’s like the Pope claiming to be an expert on cunni1ingus.
Typical LD creeps and they’re all ecofascist federasts too. They make me puke.
300 Richard Nabavi
I don’t know whether you meant to target me in your catch-all criticism of those who underestimate Osborne. Just for clarity, nothing I said in my earlier post derives from an underestimate of his skills or importance to his party.
The reason for Osborne taking a multi-departmental role rather than CoE is to leverage his political strategy skills and to apportion the leadership resources of the Cameron team effectively.
The size and scope of restructuring needed to turn around the economic crisis demands much greater leadership focus and inter-departmental co-operation than would be the case in a ‘normal’ economy.
Additionally Cameron needs to be ‘freed up’ to do what he does best: to communicate with the electorate, to unite and lead his party and country; and, to focus on those areas of government that were neglected in the Thatcherite era. The last is the most important: achieving quality performance and productivity in public service provision; supporting rather than abandoning communities which are damaged by economic reform or decline; and, driving forward the ’soft’ but essential social and welfare reforms.
It is true that Osborne, seen through the prism of the television, is not as appealing to a broad electorate as Cameron. This is not underestimate but a realistic assessment. It is not the reason for making Hammond CoE but it may be a coincidental benefit that Hammond rather than Osborne provides the frontline interface with the public.
397 - I think all the local election results pinpoint a peak Conservative performance in May 2008.
What relevance that has for the GE is up for grabs but that was certainly the peak.
393 - Definitely some good results for the Lib/Lab tonight and thrilled to see the BNP defeated. To put it into some context it’s quite interesting to look at this map of Staffordshire politically that is on Vote 2007:
http://www.andrewteale.me.uk/2009/staffs09-stoke.png
I never thought I’d see that in all my life having grown up there.
405 - Yes, but why should one vote Labour?
A new “Low” for the Cult of Coldism - Portillo thinks that “even if” man-made global warming is happening, it’ll be a positive boon for Siberia! Always best to look on the bright side, eh?
Portillo to Cohen - “how do you know all this is true?”
Cohen - “because I actually take the trouble to do some research before making assertions…”
Well, quite - must be a novel thought for the Disciples of Delingpole.
402 - Well apart from that stonking win in Peterborough…
405 - But where is Labour’s low point? I still think we are yet to see it. Although 16% in a Euro election might be it
Oh, so we have Cohen’s personal confidence do we? And we have CRU and GISS’ rigorous adherence to the scientific method.
That’s reassuring.
405 I’d agree with that. The Conservatives were 20% ahead, on projected national vote share, in 2008, and have not matched that subsequently. Were the Conservatives to be 10-12% ahead, they could expect to lose a lot of the seats they won in 2008.
I think that a quarter’s or six months’ local by-election results should give you a good indication of how the next round of local elections are likely to turn out - but they’ll tell you nothing about a general election.
The Conservatives had a run of outstanding by-election results between May 2000 and the 2001 general election, and still got hammered in the latter.
Nick Cohen, who writes well and can manage an argument on paper, looked and sounded completely at sea on This Week a few minutes ago.
His Case for MMGW was manic and absurd in presentation and copletely suspect. I hate to say it but, was he on drugs tonight?
405 - Well apart from the Euro Elections and the falling of councils that have been solidly Labour since the war give or take a few years. Some peak a year early eh?
Gordon Brown’s one and only legacy
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/5625503/gordon-browns-one-and-only-legacy.thtml
Guido is wondering where Gordon’s real home is.
http://order-order.com/2009/12/11/gordon-claims-for-his-second-home-where-is-his-first-home/
410 - I’m making two firm predictions.
The Conservative Party peaked in May 2008.
The BNP in June 2009.
WEst Devon Tavistock South is a LibDem gain from Conservative
408: cohen does rational argument for any unpersuaded tv viewer:
“..deniers are idiots.”
“..corrupt in the pay of the oil industry..”
408 ‘Cohen - “because I actually take the trouble to do some research before making assertions…”’
Since when has Cohen been a climatologist? Not saying he’s wrong, just that I doubt he’s any more of an expert than Portillo, or me for that matter.
394 - Thanks OldNat for that. It’s one of those trends across many of the polls that the Con-Lab lead is much higher when you remove Scotland. Without Scotland it is shocking how far behind Labour would be… That’s not to say that Labour is shooting up in Scotland but there appears to have been some firming up of their support. It would be useful if the UK polling companies would do a series of full sample surveys at the same time in Scotland. I know we have the existing polls. I just think running them in tandem along with the national polls would give us a snapshot at the same time.
420. “Climate science” is an oxymoron.
I note that the NATS in Scotland are at 33 per cent for Westminster - whiuch would be the highest result for Westminster in their history.
Diffcult to believe that Labour are so high though.
In any case the toal destruction of Iain Gray by Salmond this afternoon might close that gap!
413: ‘Nick Cohen, who writes well and can manage an argument on paper, looked and sounded completely at sea on This Week a few minutes ago.’
I thought so. I think he was arguing for the side who felt was in the right, rather than from any great understanding of the subject.
Tim , does Labour HQ pay you by the comment or by sheer volume?
As for local elections, don’t forget, when you are so strong in locals like Tories have been, the only way is down, it natural balance.
417 I don’t doubt it. The Conservatives won’t lead Labour by 20% at the next general election, they won’t be achieving swings of 17% in Labour-held seats, and the BNP won’t win 6% of the national vote.
But, I suspect the Conservatives will still win comfortably, and the BNP will still poll considerably better than in 2005.
Labour peaked in 1995, when they took 47%, compared to 25% for the Conservatives, but they still led by 13% in 1997.
413. “His Case for MMGW was manic and absurd in presentation and copletely suspect.”
He only sounded manic because of his monumental struggle to get his voice heard over Andrew Neil’s “neutrality”! Funny how Portillo was able to voice his absurd witterings about the immense benefits to mankind of “MMGW” without a word of interruption.
417 Twoddle. Whilst Labour continue to ignore the WWC, it’s bastard child, The BNP will continue to pick up supporters. They haven’t peaked yet.
417 - I feel like a wager on your 2nd point. But I don’t want to make money on the BNP doing well
428 - read 426, you are too thick to contribute on your own.
428 They’ve peaked by comparison with June.
Suppose they were to field 200 candidates, who won 400,000 votes. That would be well down on June, both in absolute terms, and as a percentage of the total. But it would be well up on their vote in 2005, which is the best like for like comparison.
426 - Swings against the Tories in Hastings shouldn’t be happening on the scale that has just happened.
425 - Sunonmars. I don’t think that Tim can work for Labour HQ. Probably to the annoyance of the more regular PB’ers I have been pressing Tim for a positive reason as to why one should Labour for a few days now. He has ignored me. A staffer at Labour HQ would just have told me it was the ‘right thing to do’.
400 - Thanks TSE. It would have to be in a total meltdown election then.
430 TIMBOT, you’d never make a good poker player. You have too many tics and tells. Crack open another Stella and rant some more. It will make you feel better, and give everyone else a good laugh.
430 TIMBOT, you’d never make a good card player. You have too many tics and tells. Crack open another Stella and rant some more. It will make you feel better, and give everyone else a good laugh.
Your account of QT is all very interesting tim, but where’s the bloody evidence that people are dying because of the lack of a centralised NHS IT system? Or are you going to be man enough that you just made it up?
431 - If they try and cover 200 constituencies their vote won’t reach 2000 per candidate.
432 It depends what local factors are at work.
432 - If memory serves, the councillor who resigned, was initally elected as a Lib Dem, so that is a factor.
437 Opinion polls suggest that such a vote is achievable, I think.
436 - Chris A, speaking as an NHS employee, there isn’t any. End of!
432 - ‘Swings against the Tories in Hastings shouldn’t be happening on the scale that has just happened.’
If Hastings is going down the pan at the same rate now as it has previously any such swing is entirely understandable.
396 TSE. Judging by your posts, if you appeared on Mastermind, would your specialist subject be “Pounding Dockside Hookers”?
(Just pulling your leg
)
I can tell you from working in NHS before, having a centralised database is a recipe for disaster, you really do not want those idiots holding it all on one, at least with decentralised, if someone makes a mess, you can check and balance it from other services, in centralised, someone makes a huge mess, there is NO chance of rooting out the real story.
Centralised databases are EVIL. They are invariably open to mess ups and puts the power into a very small set of hands. You do not want to go there.
A very significant gain for the Lib Dems in the Tavistock South ward of West Devon BC.
Of the four byelections in the Torridge & West Devon constituency since the last round of local elections (2007), the Lib Dems have gained three (two from Tories, one from Independent) and lost one to Ind (where the Tories did not put up a candidate.
This follows the two spectacular recent LibDem gains in Newquay and St Austell.
Time for the Tory tealeaf readers to rethink their prospects in the West Country, perhaps…
439 He had been reelected at least twice as a Conservative .
343 - He’s a married man now, what happened on the dock-side, stays on the dock-side.
443 - No, my specialist subjects would be Star Trek, Cinematic History and the History of Liverpool FC
Darling goes wide of credibility goalpost
The big test for Alistair Darling, the chancellor, in his pre-Budget report was to restore credibility to Britain’s public finances.
He needed to ensure that foreigners will continue happily to buy British government bonds once the Bank of England ceases its huge purchases of gilts through the quantitative easing programme. He sought to retain the confidence of credit ratings agencies at just the time they are raising concerns about Britain’s gaping public deficits; and he had to persuade experts and the public that the government has a good idea of how it is going to reduce borrowing.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/9819a1e6-e52d-11de-9a25-00144feab49a.html
442 - Hastings has deep social problems. The DSS offices were some of the most unpleasant places to be at times. Combined with major traffic problems and the fact that it doesn’t have a decent road link to the capital considering how close it is, makes benefitting from that economic powerhouse up the road, difficult.
446 - Thanks for that Mark, so not as much as a factor I thought.
re 411 Grendel well as I’m one too, I know that. tim asserted on here today that the IT system is essential becuase people are dying. He made it up. Just because it’s trotted out by government ministers as the latest excuse as to why the government is wasting billions does not make it true.
tim , now that one’s been demolished what will you be telling your masters tomorrow about the reason we need an NHS IT system? Will it be like the Iraq war or the ID card database, the answer changes by the day?
Outlook There has quite rightly been a hullabaloo about Alistair Darling’s refusal to explain how each government department will see its budget cut over the next four years as he tries to bring down the deficit. But the most pressing reason to question the credibility of the Chancellor’s plans is not his lack of candour but his over-optimistic projections for economic growth. If these are not met, the deficit reduction plan has had it.
The Treasury will defend its forecasts as being broadly in line with those issued last month by the Bank of England. The trouble is that both sets of projections share a common weakness: they take no account of the fiscal tightening announced in the pre-Budget report.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/david-prosser-why-darling-may-not-be-able-to-deliver-1838139.html
“Gordon Brown’s one and only legacy”
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/5625503/gordon-browns-one-and-only-legacy.thtml
Sometimes I am very glad that I don’t have a family to pass this on to…
445 The ward in question is usually won by independents, so it’s hard to draw any conclusions.
449 - And with the bad FT headline, yet FT editor still was on Daily Politics today bigging up Gordo. No idea what Gordo would have to do to lose his support.
Bob Crow predicting mass unrest if either Tories or Labour implement the cuts.
452 - Is it a UK Govt initiative?
Paper records unavailable to an A & E Doctor are hardly just a British concern.
If you have issues about civil liberties on the data storage or how the Govt has pissed money up against a wall, don’t confuse that with a Doctor making a decision without medical notes.
Ashdown was the QT star tonight. Yaqoob made her point eloquently, but my word, she’s full of crap.
It was the wrong forum for Dannatt. He isn’t particularly mediagenic, and may not be used to talking the way politicians do.
Hague didn’t get much of a say, but what he did say was quite good.
Rammell actually did very well under very difficult circumstances. Maybe he is less useless than some of the others.
As for Piers Morgan - fairly sound, but forgettable - which in itself is quite an achievement from a man I normally loathe intensely.
457 TSE, Bob Crow can huff and puff all he likes. It’s time for a reality check. Where does he expect the cash to come from? Darling and Brown have emptied the piggy bank.
457 The Screaming Eagles
Bob Crow is the biggest advert for Thatcherism out there.
I quite like the head of UNISON - he comes across as genuinely concerned about the welfare of his members, even if his demands are ludicrous.
Bob Crow just wants strikes, no matter what. A complete %^”*.
460 - Agreed, my litmus test for how well the Tories are doing in with the difficult descisions of government, will be how much Bob Crow whinges. The more he whinges, the better.
460. Rammell actually did very well under very difficult circumstances
What, like getting bitchslapped for denying the smear campaign against Dannatt?
re 458 tim - evidence, number of deaths, references?
463 - Agreed. Getting the teachers unions heads out of their arses for a least a few minutes would be decent achievement as well.
Scottish women know where the money comes from!
Men outnumber women 2:1 in SNP support.
UKIP needs to double before hoping to get even one seat. But maybe the HoL could become a PR elected chamber! Then UKIP could have 25% of the Lords!
The by-elections tonight are the best for Labour that I can recall - the best in the wards for years. The Hastings result is in a prosperous middle-class ward and better than any result going back to 2002.
Until he stood up at about 12.30pm, it seemed that Alistair Darling had crafted a pre-Budget report that might just satisfy his many competing audiences: not least the bond markets, Labour MPs and the voters.
The advance briefings on the speech seemed to make economic and political sense. It was only when he came to deliver the package in the House of Commons that it became clear the chancellor had managed to find a little something to annoy everyone.
The early indications were that Mr Darling would try to allay concerns in the City about the credibility of his plans by giving much more detail on where the axe on public spending would fall, fleshing out his plans to halve the deficit by 2014.
But the final PBR documentation was unclear on the exact definition of what “front-line services” Mr Darling intends to exempt from cuts after 2011, and therefore what exactly that means for all other “unprotected” departments.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/8f775796-e504-11de-9a25-00144feab49a.html
re 445
I don’t know much about Cornwall particularly, or the southwest in general, but it/they does/do seem very erratic in its voting patterns. Didn’t the Tories hammer the Lib Dems down there in the Euro elections?
If so, is that because, although a traditional Lib Dem heartland, it is/has become Eurosceptic?
Also are the Tories suffering in local govt by-elections from being the incumbents in a lot of West Country councils?
Will local council unpopularity translate to poor GE results when, presumably, the priority of many voters will be to get rid of Brown?
463 Scott P
Yes. He handled it well.
I don’t know if he was involved in the smearing or not, but the facts are utterly crap for Labour. To put on a fighting performance in spite of the facts is a mark of media savvy.
It’s easy to be good in the media when all the debating points are on your side. Much harder when they’re not.
On the by-elections tonight, what are the turnouts compared with normal by-elections? Up or down? Are we seeing an active attempt to vote against the incumbent or just a lot of no turn-ups…
469 -
History of Cornwall council is either Independent or LibDem since the 70s…
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cornwall_Council#Council_history
470. wibbler. Interesting definition of “good”. Flatly denying the truth and being caught lying on nearly live TV. My opinion of him did not rise. YMMV
423.”In any case the toal destruction of Iain Gray by Salmond this afternoon might close that gap!”
Doubt it, probable about as many people who took part in that AR poll watched Scottish Questions. Anyway, the Nats have problems of their own to contend with.
Absolute rubbish, Sean Fear. You usually talk better sense.
Last time round, in 2007, Tavistock South was won by an Independent by quite some way, with Tories picking up the other two seats. This Independent has a huge personal following, which does not transmit to other Independents.
I think the last time it was won by a Lib Dem was 15 years ago.
This is a landmark byelection. The Tory tide is going out fast in the West Country.
459
Agree with your QT post mortem Wibbler (apologies again for badly mis-reading you last week). Ashdown was/is very good, although very self-righteous.
Morgan, even though he toned down his Gordon-is-wonderful routine, remains just about the most nauseatingly self-adoring creep on TV.
Ashdown behaved like a classic political bully at the end of Question Time.
I believe he still receives the Queen’s shilling as a pension. On his own ranting he should therefore not be involved in politics.
FT:
“…Mr Osborne sounded overly shrill in his response. The shadow chancellor has yet to find the political register to communicate an aura of calm control. He is still hooked on a barmy idea to cut inheritance tax for the very rich.”
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/fec58d3e-e50e-11de-9a25-00144feab49a.html
445.”Time for the Tory tealeaf readers to rethink their prospects in the West Country, perhaps…”
Why, are those councillors going to stand in the next GE and run the country?
457.”Bob Crow predicting mass unrest if either Tories or Labour implement the cuts.”
What is Bob Crow’s current salary?
466.
459 - Agree with you their, although I almost felt sorry for Dannatts inability to respond to Ashdowns dissection at the end.
461 - Its David Prentis I think you are referring to, the polar opposite of Bob Crowe, who must be the Tories dream Trade Unionist. And a true enemy of the working class in the Scargill mould.
464 - ChrisA - You know well that people die because handwritten Doctors notes are misread, let alone having no notes at all.
O/T. If by any chance MalcolmG reads this (perhaps tomorrow) I’d just like to thank him for sticking up for me on the previous thread in the face of Ms Plato’s rather silly line of attack. We’ve had our differences in the past so it means a lot.
It occurred to afterwards that Ms Plato (in a startling deviation from her stated policy of Playing The Ball Not The Man) was actually trying to put me in the same boat she was already in herself. We’d both been accused of not having a sense of humour by exactly two separate posters - so in her own words “it’s clearly not just an impression one poster here has”. And we both defended ourselves by citing other posters who’d said they’d valued our contributions on this site. Apparently that’s good enough for Ms Plato but not good enough for me. Go figure…
I think I actually fell into a trap a few months ago of thinking Plato must be one of the good guys, because she went out of her way to defend me after Stars & Stripes’ thuggish words about my mental health problems. For ages after that, I was reluctant to think badly of her, in spite of her bizarre passive-aggressive treatment of me and anyone else she disagrees with. I’m starting to realise in retrospect that she spoke up for me not out of gallantry (if gallantry can be a female thing), but because our views just happened to coincide that day on Gary McKinnon. Well, in future I’ll recognise one of our resident wind-up merchants for what she is, and the next time she goes off on one, instead of rising to the bait I’ll simply say, in a rough approximation of her own inimitable style, “Harumph! Beneath my dignity to respond.”
478 - Just wondering MacGabble, did we pay for your subscription to the FT online?
I have just learnt something extremely disturbing on Vote 2007.
Harriet Harman seems to be the current Mother of the House.
http://www.vote-2007.co.uk/index.php?topic=3872.0
I did not want to know that. Now that I do, I must diffuse the pain by sharing.
478 -Thats old news, why are you posting that?
Gabble, from the same FT article:
The news from his pre-Budget report was almost universally grim. Instead of a route-map out of the mess, Mr Darling set out the tactical dividing lines on which the government will fight next year’s election. Picking through the thicket of mostly small announcements, it was obvious that the big economic picture has not much changed since the spring Budget. Nor has the political outlook.
The voters have lost track of all the borrowed billions. So have I.
478 - Still waiting for your comment on FactCheck Gabble.
477.Witan, I thought that Ashdown undermined himself rather than Dannatt in the very personal way he launched that attack. Methinks that there is no love lost between those two. After dining out on his own ex military back story, one that has helped shaped him as a politician and an expert in places like Afghanistan, it was mean spirited and it looked like he had a personal axe to grind.
478: ‘FT:’
I certainly agree with this bit of the article:
‘Mr Osborne is right that a government that promised to end boom and bust has instead presided over the biggest bust since the 1930s.’
‘Moderate recession’ indeed.
What a lot of top drawer twaddle on the local election results. Any fule kno that the Tories have peaked. At present they have more councillors than Labour and the LDs COMBINED. They are utterly dominant.
The only way is down from there, even as they ascend to power in Westminster. The same thing happened, as Sean Fear avers, to Labour in the late 90s. They started losing locals the same time they started winning generals.
The Tories will win the GE in 2010. I strongly suspect they will in in 2014, too. At the same time they will lose more and more councillors.
The one difference between now and then is the possibility of an Opposition realignment. It is not inconceivable the Libs could score more votes in England than Labour.
If that happens…. hmm….
Or this Gabble, from the same FT article:
Dividing lines are all Gordon Brown’s government has left. It has run out of ideas save arguing that David Cameron’s Conservatives would be worse.
475 - Curious, to have made significant gains in Cornwall would really have been a stunning result come the GE. However was the turnout up or down on the last election and by how much?
On another tack, Bob Crow is the reason that the Unions get the blame for the strikes, not the Mayor on the RMT. In fact watching the collapse of the New Years strike they planned was hilarious. The workers refused to ruin Londoner’s NYE celebrations.
I thought Dannatt did OK tonight. I was a bit angry with Ashdown for trying to impune him but at least he had the courtesy to do it to his face. Dannatt’s record does not indicate a political attitude.
No, Tholster, the Tories did not “hammer the Lib Dems” in the elections in the West Country earlier this year. That is Tory mythology.
The elections were held in the shadow of the MP expenses scandals, in an area where most of the MPs are Lib Dems. They were the victim of the Labour and Tory spinning: “We are all in this together” remember? Copyright g Osborne). Labour were the principal spinners of this line of course, though the Tories were not far behind. Remember how Mr Cameron very kindly stepped out to apologise on behalf of everybody? He learns the lessons from his Labour mentors very well, doesn´t he?
So the Tory vote fell quite a lot in June, though the Lib Dem vote fell back even more. And it appeared that the Tories did very well. And the Tory spinners went to work. Tories winning everywhere. Ave It 2007 style - Absolute nonsense of course.
Recent local government byelections in the West Country show, I think, that Liberal Democrat candidates are still trusted by the electorate.
So if you are a betting man, as opposed to a paid Tory spinner, Tholster, you might do well to rethink the prospects of the West Country seats in the Lib Dem v Tory battle.
487 - It simply looked like Dannatt knew he had made a huge error by politicising his role befoe he had left the armed services.
It was a huge error and it showed on his face.
Lets hope Cameron has learnt from his mistake too if he want’s to be Prime Minister, every soldier, every politician recognises the mistake that was made.
Angela Merkel charmed by British policy:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2009/dec/10/france-germany-back-uk-bonus-tax
Ashdown indeed blew it at the end of QT, his attack on Dannatt and the Tories was sharp, clever and efficacious - at first.
But the General kept his sangfroid and responded well, leaving Ashdown frothing and growling, and generally looking a little puce.
At best a score draw for the Libber.
Another bit from the FT:
Overall, you could forgive George Osborne, the Conservative shadow chancellor, the angry indignation of his response to Mr Darling’s statement. After all, the chancellor’s latest plan to raise taxes through higher national insurance will scarcely enhance the employment content of the economic recovery.
More generally, Mr Osborne is right that a government that promised to end boom and bust has instead presided over the biggest bust since the 1930s. No, Mr Brown cannot blame it all on the international financial crisis. Britain’s deficit is twice the level of many comparable nations.
Christina D Ashdown has been the politico with the military background (cough) for years and has traded off it, and now he sees someone with more clout and class coming on the political-military scene.
Ashdown thinks a lot of himself but that self assessment is not universally shared by people who have been in his hands.
Dannatt was too polite to point that out.
Everytime Ashdown says he has spoken to generals then take a pinch of salt. Generals (rtd) litter the place but few have been at the sharp end organisationally or operationally as has Dannatt. Few have his reputation within the military at all ranks. But you can always find some retired general from the catering corps to criticise a real soldier.
489 - Yet I can’t get you to have bet on your (admittedly innumerate) assertion that the Lib Dems would lose half their 5 (yes I know folks, think about it) seats.
But now there are 6 Cornish seats and I bet you £50 at evens that the Lib Dems will win 4 or more of them.
If past form is to go by I expect a small outburst of something or other, followed by a refusal to take the bet.
489. “The one difference between now and then is the possibility of an Opposition realignment. It is not inconceivable the Libs could score more votes in England than Labour.
If that happens…. hmm….”
The only trouble with that argument is that I saw people saying the same thing on the 1959 election replay! If the Tories win, Labour will instantly lose the tag of unpopular incumbent government - as the Tories showed by winning a by-election within weeks of losing power in 1997. If anything, the Lib Dems might have a better chance of overhauling Labour if there’s a fourth Labour term in office.
493.Tim, I listened to that Five Live interview that Dannatt gave back on that day when it emerged the Tories approached him. You won’t ever understand the integrity of the man, and therefore you won’t understand why I think that Ashdown got very personal in that attack tonight on QT. I watched both men’s body language, it was very interesting. This government broke the military covenant, I wonder if Ashdown will take some flak from the ordinary squaddie over this attack on Dannant?
489 Just hopped to psr keele to take the trouble to research the last time the Labour Party only just beat the-then SDP-Liberal Alliance,in 1983;
Labour 26.94% English vote (148 seats out of a final 209)
SDP-Liberal Alliance 26.36% (I cannot remember the figure for Alliance MPs in English seas that time-I apologise!)
Nick Palmer if you are pleased that France and Germany like anything we do to the city then you are sleep walking into a trap.
But I suppose as they appear to be supporting the Dear Leader you must wave your red scarf in the air in joy.
475 - ‘This is a landmark byelection. The Tory tide is going out fast in the West Country.’
492 - ‘the Tories did not “hammer the Lib Dems” in the elections in the West Country earlier this year. That is Tory mythology.’
Sorry, so are the Tories in retreat in the West Country, or were they just never doing that well to start with?
499 James Kelly
Absolutely right. Look to America’s current situation. Bush has almost been forgotten. Republicans don’t want to talk about him, and for some bizarre reason, Democrats don’t seem to talk about him.
I can’t believe people have such short memories, but well, there you go.
Having said which, the GOP is still locked in an ideological struggle. In that sense the Bush legacy lives on.
wibbler I thought the recent poll suggested 44% or so wanted Bush back?
501 And I fess up to one and all; in 1983,as a 12 year-old boy I actually ,for the first time in my life (and hopefully last) wanted the Tories to win-I actually wanted Mrs.T to beat Michael Foot!
Ashdown did a Brown and overplayed his hand, it did not help that he has to say he was not smearing Dannatt. Dannatt did not lose his cool but Ashdown did.
What was far more interesting was that Dannatt stated that he has been advising the Conservatives for two weeks, and the fact the Cameron was well recieved by the troops in Afganistan. It re-assures the forces that Cameron will have the best advice and stops Labour from saying that they are not ready or prepared during the election. A win win situation for votes.
498 - When the cojones free,Cornish Tory blowhard SeanT backs down from the Cornish bet, its on the market to anyone else by the way.
500 - You know Dannatt was wrong to politicise while still a soldier, and you know Cameron was wrong to encourage him.
506 Not withstanding mid-term unpopularity,that is a VERY scary statement re US politcal opinion-I am sure if it came to a voting booth,the number would dwindle by at leats a few points!
Martin Bright reckons Mandelson was desperate to get the Foreign Affairs brief in Brussels
http://www.spectator.co.uk/martinbright/5625831/the-pbr-suggests-that-labour-thinks-its-all-over-but-peter-mandelson-knows-it-is.thtml
502: ‘Nick Palmer if you are pleased that France and Germany like anything we do to the city then you are sleep walking into a trap.’
Yes, knowing that pair of Euro-scallywags and silly old Gordon, we’ll go ahead and cripple the City with taxation and they’ll renege on it at the last moment. I get incredibly nervous when I see Brown strut and preen at these world events - the fool’s so blinkered by his own vanity that it must be absolute child’s play to take him for a ride!
510 - America is of course a much more right of centre country than the UK. Obviously you still need the Reagan Democrats and Obama Republicans to make it work. As to your 1983 confession, you’re in good company. It appears that around 70% of the country felt the same!
Away from politics, I have learnt one lesson this week. Don’t mess with Pulis when he’s having a shower:-)
493.You have not got a scooby about what the average squaddie thinks, nor which Generals have garnered the most respect whilst in the job.
But I bet Paddy Ashdown knows!!
495.”Ashdown indeed blew it at the end of QT, his attack on Dannatt and the Tories was sharp, clever and efficacious - at first.”
Sean, Paddy launched a very personal political attack on Dannatt, so recently in uniform. Seriously, Dannatt was very respected by those I know that are, or have been in the military. His over riding passion is not the Tories, its the men he left behind when his military career came to an abrupt end under this government. Paddy was being highly political in the same way that the current government were when they attacked him. He is not political, he is a military man through and through, and he represents in the most eloquent way possible just how much damage this government has done to the military covenant. That is what they are scared off, if a future Conservative government were to fail our troops, he wouldn’t stay silent.
And those supposed military chiefs that Paddy was quick to mention saw what happened to Dannant when he tried to do his job as effectively as he could.
497.Witan, I agree, my immediate reaction to that Ashdown attack was to wince. He totally undermined himself not his intended target.
Labour’s PBR website: http://www.labour.org.uk/pbr
Darling is a man with a plan. Good for him. Bad for us.
The broad consensus from the soldiers’ forum seems to be that:
- Ashdown was the best performer by far but perhaps went too far with the pointscoring at the end
- Dannatt is a man of integrity
- He was smeared by Labour
- He was used as a bit of a political pawn by David Cameron
- He was out of his league on QT
But as you would expect, they don’t all agree.
http://www.arrse.co.uk/Forums/viewtopic/t=138885.html
513. “It appears that around 70% of the country felt the same!”
But to get to that figure you have to lump the Tory and Alliance vote together. I very much doubt if Alliance voters uniformly wanted Mrs Thatcher to beat Michael Foot - indeed probably quite a lot of them regarded both leaders as extremists, and had a ‘plague on both your houses’ attitude.
508.”It re-assures the forces that Cameron will have the best advice and stops Labour from saying that they are not ready or prepared during the election. A win win situation for votes.”
Yes, and Paddy Ashdown knows it.
494: ‘Angela Merkel charmed by British policy’
Hmm, just read the article. Merkel finds Brown’s bonus tax ‘a charming idea’, but she has no intention of implementing in Germany. Great.
517.wibbler, take it from me, Dannatt is well respected by the troops. More so than quite a few of his predecessors.
Robusticus, you ask whether the Tories are in retreat in the West County, or whether they were not really all strong to start with.
Obviously, they were not as strong as the Tory propagandists on PBC tried to make out. They exaggerated possible Tory gains from the Lib Dems, while failing to recognise the decline in support for the Tories.
The Tories do, of course, have millions of Ashcroft money pouring in all over the country, so they ought to be extremely strong everywhere.
Byelections in the West Contry over the last few months show that the Tories are not as strong as their champions proclaim.
Is this the same as “being in retreat” from the last general election? Probably not. Possibly so.
It does suggest that such seats as Totnes, Torridge and Central Devon are not necessarily safely in the Tory column. And that Torbay, Newquay, Exeter and North Devon are not necessarily going to fall to them.
[489] - It is not inconceivable the Libs could score more votes in England than Labour.
If that happens…. hmm….
Not really. We all know on here that the Tories notched up more English votes than Labour in 2005. What matters is that Labour won more seats, thanks to FPTP, and the distribution of the Labour votes.
If Labour do fall behind the Lib Dems in English votes, it won’t matter unless they also lose lots of seats. Lots and lots of seats. It’s a measure of how far behind the Lib Dems are that it would be an amazing result if they were to be within 100 seats of Labour after the next GE.
More important than whether the Lib Dems outpoll Labour in England, IMO, is whether the Greens, UKIP or the BNP pick up an MP, which would lend any of those parties a lot more credibility, and the potential to peel away more votes from the crumbling Labour coalition. Strategically, you’d think Labour would trade a lot of seats lost to the Tories in return for keeping those parties out of Parliament.
522:
Curious, thanks for that response.
523. In 1983 there was always the unanswered question of whether the Alliance would have been regarded as the de facto ‘main opposition’ if they’d beaten Labour in the popular vote, even while remaining way behind in terms of seats. David Owen said in his autobiography that he didn’t think that would have been the case. But I agree that overtaking Labour in terms of the popular vote in England alone would not be seen as a particularly significant milestone for the Lib Dems, unless it was backed up by seats (not that it’s likely to happen anyway).
523.”More important than whether the Lib Dems outpoll Labour in England, IMO, is whether the Greens, UKIP or the BNP pick up an MP, which would lend any of those parties a lot more credibility, and the potential to peel away more votes from the crumbling Labour coalition. Strategically, you’d think Labour would trade a lot of seats lost to the Tories in return for keeping those parties out of Parliament.”
Timothy, second time tonight I find myself not only agreeing with you, but commending you for spotting a point missed by many. When New Labour came to power in 97′, the Libdems were the other main beneficiaries of that complete Tory meltdown. They are inextricable tied to that Labour success, their biggest failure under Clegg and St Vince will be the fact they didn’t keep a more equal distance from both the main parties over the last year in particular. You only have to look at their current polling figures in Scotland to see why they are struggling. Looking at their polling figures right now, you have to wonder if they might end up with a respectable national vote post GE, but fail to pile the votes on where it matters most to them because of the wider choice of others on offer this time around.
518 - I was being a little exaggerative in my comment I agree. I was trying to make the point, that there were an awful lot of Labour voters who deserted them.
526.I should have added, that they might be squeezed in the wrong places if the vote also polarises between Labour and the Tories.
526. “You only have to look at their current polling figures in Scotland to see why they are struggling.”
They’re not the only ones with dismal poll figures in Scotland lately. 14% for the Tories in this Angus Reid subsample, 15% in the most recent full-scale Scottish poll.
Christina - I’v emailed you..
Very welcome, Robusticus. It is nice to have a civilised reply to a posting too.
New trend on PBC perhaps…..
A further thought is that Cameron´s USP always has been that he was going to win the next election for the Tories. So even those who disliked his redefinition of what the Tory Party was about (eg Sean Fear) accepted the need for the Toynbee clothes peg and silence.
If the Lib Dems are able - in the West Country - to deny Cameron that assumed certainty, does that not mean that his coalition is shaky? And his dominance over his members and activists? Will the Cameron mask collapse between now and polling day?
531 - “If the Lib Dems are able”
Kinda goes down hill after that opening line don’t you think, you may have a point Curious, but more than likely just castles built on sand imho.
531. And an even more basic question is whether Cameron can hope to win a majority without major inroads against the Lib Dems in the southwest. David Roe seems fairly confident that the Tories can do it basically just with gains from Labour, but the amount of those gains they would need is absolutely mind-boggling by historical standards.
re 522 and following posts.
I agree with much of that. Where Lib Dem incumbents are facing a Tory challenge the battle is almost incidental to the main issue at stake in the election - Mr. Brown.
I think we’ll see even higher levels of tactical voting and there’s also a long record of Lib Dems getting significant incumbency bonuses.
One problem with the simple UNS seat projectors is that they assume that the Tories will pick up a pile more LD seats than they actually will. And if these are not won the Tories have to do disproportionately better elsewhere.
NEW THREAD .. they are getting earlier and earlier these days.
re 535. It’s because I am in Belgium where we are an hour on.