Should the Tories be gunning for Vince?
December 12th, 2009
Why’s the LDs biggest asset getting such an easy ride?
There’ve not been many winners from the economic crisis, political or otherwise. Robert Peston is very probably one, Vince Cable another: he has become the TV and radio studios’ politician of choice for comment on the crisis and related matters.
That’s a huge asset for the Lib Dems, as third parties can struggle to get their voice heard when there’s a serious debate between the big two or where the third party doesn’t have a particularly distinctive policy. Cable has managed to transcend those barriers and probably appears more often than Alistair Darling, George Osborne or any other economic spokesman from Labour or the Tories. If he doesn’t actually do so then it certainly seems as if he does - and for practical purposes that amounts to the same thing.
What’s perhaps surprising is the extent to which the other parties have allowed Cable to reach this position and that applies particularly to the Conservatives. A successful opposition needs to do two things: hit the government where it matters and give the appearance of being an alternative and better government themselves.
The state of the economy is without doubt the biggest political issue - see Mori’s chart here - and so being able to land the punches there matters, yet the Tories are being crowded out of the debate by Vince and so are failing to maximise their achievement of either.
Can the Conservatives do much about that? The answer is surely yes, the supplementaries are whether they will and whether they should. Labour is intent on creating dividing lines and therein lies both the opportunity and the threat: if the Conservatives were to announce more policy details, that would enable the debate to become more direct and so bypass the Lib Dems - but doing so will also open the Tories up either to attack or to having their policies copied.
The other alternative of aiming to undermine Cable directly risks getting sidetracked and letting the government off the hook (though the Conservatives would no doubt like to put at least a substantial dent in his majority in Twickenham). It would also probably be quite difficult to do given Cable’s strong public reputation and the often esoteric nature of economic debate and could just as easily backfire.
The net result is that the Tories are a bit stymied. On this site, Mike’s rated highly George Osborne’s political skill and he has indeed been central to many of the Tories’ successes during the past four years. Those successes have however mainly been policy and strategy based. As opposition lead on the economy, he also has to take on Cable as well as Darling. That requires a slightly different skill-set and could prove his biggest challenge yet.
Of the Conservatives and Labour, whoever wins that argument is likely to come out on top in the election - but before winning it, you have to be heard.
David Herdson
MessageSpace Advertising
FPT,
Hello then whats this…aren’t these Labour’s Turkish friends?
Deputies from Turkey’s main Kurdish party said on Saturday they would quit parliament after the group was banned in court, throwing into doubt government efforts to end decades of conflict in the EU candidate country.
The Constitutional Court voted on Friday to disband the Democratic Society Party (DTP), finding it guilty of cooperating with Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) separatist guerrillas.
http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/GEE5BB05F.htm
http://www.pes.org/en/about-pes/pes-members/parties#turkey
Thats odd, not a single mention in the BBC article that these are Labour’s Turkish buddies. I wonder what would have happened if it had been the Tories new mates?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/8408903.stm
Because by attacking Cable the Tories/Labour are simply taking their eye of attacking the main target - Darling/Osborne.
I accept Cable is an asset to the Lib Dems but they are still a third party sideshow who cannot break into second place despite a disastrous Labour government.
Oh FFS, f##kin retards the lot of them.
An investigation is under way after a laptop containing secret data was stolen from the Ministry of Defence.
It was taken from the ministry’s headquarters in Whitehall, central London, in late November, ALONG with a key used to decode encrypted files.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/8409363.stm
2 Yes and if they went for him negatively it would rather go against the overall lovebombing strategy towards Lib Dem voters. They’re best off letting the media take on Cable if they wish.
3 - It wouldn’t surprise me at the MOD, if loads of numpties sitting on their £1000 chairs have their passwords as PASSWORD.
I’ve always found this media obsession with Cable highly curious.
Cable is nothing more than an old-fashioned socialist. And does anyone seriously believe Cable would have put the brakes on a massive house price bubble or credit binge - the two things that drove the British economy? Of course not.
In fact, I believe we would have borrowed even MORE money had Cable been chancellor - not that I’m excusing Brown.
I would love to see Cable in a government, where real decisions had to be made. He wouldn’t have a clue.
2. That’s true, but -
Labour will almost certainly spend 80%+ of their election campaign attacking the Conservatives, and especially their economic policies. Unless the Tories can get their own message across, it will become much harder to gain the seats they need. Remember, Labour’s message will be ‘things aren’t too bad really, it’s all under control’ i.e. ‘the Tories will cut because they want to, not because they have to’.
Cable stands in the way of that. Although he’s attacking the government, he’s also keeping the Tories off the airwaves (and for that matter, being fairly dismissive of them too).
Oracle @3: “Oh FFS, f##kin retards the lot of them.”
…as anyone responsible for computer security has said about their users from time to time…
Cable has had an easy ride butI am not impreessed with him - if you push him he will crumble.
6. “does anyone seriously believe Cable would have put the brakes on a massive house price bubble or credit binge?”
Yes. Lots of people do. It doesn’t follow that they’re right.
4. There are ways and means. You’re very probably right that attacking Cable directly would probably be counterproductive. Trying to barge him out of the way might be more effective though - it may be more that CCHQ ought to be a lot more proactive in pushing their own spokesmen forward.
Yes,the Conservatives should be taking Vince on in matters economic. Hell,if Kirstie Allsopp can make mincemeat out of him on the mansion tax issue,it shouldn’t be beyond members of the Shadow Cabinet.
On topic, I don’t really see the winning angle for the Tories here. For minor parties, all publicity is good publicity (except for that business with the gay lover and the dog). If they attack Cable, they just raise his media profile, and make the problems they’re trying to solve even worse.
The exception would be if they could come up with something really embarrassing about him that would make the LibDems want to keep him off the telly.
“.Hell,if Kirstie Allsopp can make mincemeat out of him on the mansion tax issue…”
You’ve done it now. Standby for incoming.
11 You have too high an opinion of the Shadow Cabinet .
I think the national strategy of love-bombing Lib Dem voters and largely ignoring the Lib Dem leaders is the correct one. There’s little to be gained from enhancing the Lib Dems’ national profile, much better to let them drift toward irrelevance.
At the local level, their chumminness with Labour should of course be exploited to the full by Tory campaigns.
An interesting piece but the fault lies with the MSM. Cable is treated by the BBC and Sky in a wholly different way from Darling and Osbourne.He is NEVER challenged but just wheeled out as some sort of resident independent economic expert.On Radio 4(Today Progamme)this week he was interviewed, allowed to say his piece , was picked up on nothing, treated reverentially as though evey word that dropped from his lips was inspired and then humbly thanked for gracing us with his presence.On the same morning Osbourne and Darling had been given a right going over!!
I have only seen Cable taken on once and that was by Andrew Neill on Straight Talk where his inconsistencies were exposed and he collapsed like a pack of cards.
Cable portays an image of a disinterestd observer able to view everything form an unbiased perspective. He basically made his reputation with the “M Bean” joke and since then he has been regarded with almost godlike status on everything.Yet his flip flps on the econmy have been many and the holes in the LibDem policy are there for all to see.It is about time the MSM began tio seriosuly challenge and expose this lightweight for what he is.
11. Allsopp’s did a good impression of a gobby well-heeled self-centred middle class yummy mummy, but she has got no idea about politics. Vince knows the technical aspects of economics inside-out, but also has the political skills to focus on measures that address the minimum requirement of fairness in a tax system. I am not, however, one of those who feel he should be leader of the LDs - he is better suited to his current role.
The law of diminishing returns might suggest there’s not that much value in all-out attack on Brown and Darling on the economy when their credibility on the subject in the eyes of the public is already shot to pieces.
Going after someone who does retain some (misplaced?) credibility wouldn’t hurt.
7. Thing is, when does Vince crop up? Usually (though not always, I’ll concede) in response to some economic news or development coming out of government. As such, for much of his airtime he’s actually critiquing the Labour government (maybe occasionally having a swipe at the Tories but that tends not to be the main focus of his appearance).
As such, he’s largely another figure attacking Labour who, in the public’s minds, sounds quite authoritative. I’m sure it’s not ideal for the Tories to have the man outside their party but he’s still another stick to beat Labour with as far as they’re concerned, I’d have thought.
I’m sure the Tories will be gambling that the change message at the GE will lead to people voting for the people most likely to put Labour out of office, rather than the one who’s got Vince.
6 & 9. Did you really listen to what the man had to say during darkest days of the credit crunch or are these comments made out of ignorant prejudice?
11. Oh really. I suggest that is a highly subjective viewpoint of that particular edition of QT.
I wouldn’t worry too much about Cable. The main target is Labour in the Midlands, Wales and North of England. Attacking Cable is a needless distraction. It would also contradict the love bombing of the LDs in the South.
Vince and the Labour mini-me’s in the LDs get the velvet glove, Gordon gets the iron fist.
How old is Vince now anyway?
I think he does get an easy ride - his calm, sage-like manner helps, especially contrasted with what one could charitably call Osborne’s boyish enthusiasm, but I don’t get the impression that he’s actually right more often than anyone else. Whether the Tories should take him on is another question - Ken Clarke could do it effectively, but I’m not sure they’ve got anyone else who could.
Cable’s cleverly managed to work out how to take advantage of the fact that the LibDems tend to be ignored by the media. It gives him license to say contradictory things, then highlight the one that turns out to be right.
21 Must be approachig 70. He was standing for Westminster in 1970 I think.
Vince will be 67 on the 9 May 2010.
Really would be a waste of time and counter-productive even acknowledging St Vince.
16 Peter Buss - spot on, if you didn’t know he was a politician most of the time you’d never guess.
21 How old is Vince anyway ?
Old enough to look an experienced authorative statesman when he comments on economic affairs - The Boy George on the other hand !!
24. Exactly. He’ll be gone by 2014, along with several others of the ageing band of Lib Dem stalwarts, most of whose seats will then revert to blue.
Osborne and Darling are merely reactionists who do what they think is best for the economy without thinking ahead. I feel what makes Cable great is his visionary ways, whether he makes the right economical assessments or not. However, I do agree with a lot of his policies and you cannot ignore the fact that he saw the recession coming before any of the big political dogs who simply dismissed him at the time.
Its a shame that he will never play any sort of role in a majority government as it is then when he would truly be tested.
28. Runnymede - you think that the Tories will win seats in 2014? Surely next year will be their high water mark, and after 4 years of austerity and a new (old) Labour opposition, they will be looking to try and hold on to what they’ve got?
The problem for the two parties in attacking Vince is that his position is an amalgam of both. He’s Brownian in keeping the deficit higher in the short term, then cutting hard in the medium term. Labour want to maintain the deficit regardless and the Tories want to cut earlier. Timing to most voters is a matter of semantics. They see a big number and hear two parties wanting to cut it down and one pretending they won’t. It’s a difficult line to attack.
Vince also has that ability to seem calm and unflappable and getting a good soundbite (Stalin to Mr Bean, Boilers and Bankers). He is almost the electorate’s favourite Uncle. You don’t attack a favourite Uncle without it backfiring.
It’s all down to perception and Cable sounds trustworthy, his demeanour is also one that people like (Luntz picked up on this much earlier). Communication skills matter.
Joshua, I would strongly suggest you watch the Andrew Neil v Vince interview, then come back and reassess what you have written in post 29. You will realise that it is so far from the truth that it is embarrassing.
20 When challenged,all he could come back with was a snide ad hominem attack on Kirstie’s political allegiance. It was telling- he knew he had been rumbled.
30. I think so yes, from the Lib Dems at least. It will take a couple of elections to chip out some of the better-entrenched Lib Dems, with retirements helping the process. It was the same in the 1980s - cf. Cambs NE and the Isle of Wight both of which didn’t fall until 1987.
Vince Cable was born on 9 May 1943, in York:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vincent_Cable
28. Events, dear boy, events! Back in 1979 you’d be hard pressed to find anyone who didn’t think the only way was down for Maggie with a majority of 43!
Sorry 37 should have been for 30.
35 That assumes the economy is fixed by then. It is looking a long haul and no doubt there will be some very unpopular decisions to be carried out. As Eastleigh will probably show once a replacement gets in they will quickly entrench. Thus the Tories are much likelier to win Cornwall South East with the MP retiring than Cornwall North where the MP retired at the last election even though the majority is much less at present.
34. Given that Allsopp is a Tory advisor on housing matters and the subject was taxation on property, it seemed entirely reasonable to highlight that her comments were in some way influenced by other than an objective assessment of Vince’s tax proposal.
o/t - just got excited as IPSOS / MORI knocked on the door….
But they want to ask questions about McDonald’s…..
Peston is just a Treasury mouthpiece. Some of the market sensitive information he was releasing last year on his blog was a disgrace. An official in the Treasury at the time worked with Peston at the FT. He later became head of UKFI and has now moved back to the private sector. Anyone can look good when they are being fed information from the heart of government.
I agree that Cable is being given an easy time by the media. Last year he was quite astute in his analysis. However, he now believes his own press and has become a populist. Very little of his recent statements or analysis stands up to serious scrutiny. The problem is because he is forever attacking the City any attack on Cable by other politicians is likely to be interpreted by the public as defending the hated bankers. Therefore, he gets away with more rubbish than any other politician.
33 - I’ve seen that interview and it is nowhere near as bad as people try to make out. If you read my first post I actually admit that it would be better to actually see his policies put into action as part of a government so I’m not trying to proclaim him as some sort of economical-god. I just feel he has far more substance than Osborne and Darling. Darling is alright but he seems to be under some sort of stranglehold by Brown.
O/T:
UKIP Candidate in Hove defects to the Tories
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/goldlist/2009/12/mike-weatherley-in-hove-is-boosted-by-the-defection-of-his-ukip-opponent-to-the-conservatives.html
39. Indeed, it assumes a great deal. Re, the economy I think four to five years after the trough of the recession it is pretty likely things will look a lot better than now.
I agree with you on the importance of retirements - hence my original remark, in part. There will probably be several of these next time around in seats that in the recent past were Conservative, and I would expect some of these seats to change hands as a result.
16 Peter Buss - “Cable portays an image of a disinterestd observer able to view everything form an unbiased perspective.”
You got it in one,PB. Stupid to attack Vince Cable.His own attacks are even-handed and he is popular in the way that Ken Clarke and Lord Birkenhead are popular.
Just imagine attacking Frank Field from an enemy perspective.It is unthinkable.
O/T Wigan have just scored a wonder free kick. DAMN.
Cable comes across well to the layman because he knows the lexicon of economics and can talk freely about gilts, fiscal and QE without tripping over his tongue.
That’s not to say that what he says is sound, fair, correct or right (it can’t be, given he’s a leftwinger!) it’s just that it sounds, to the layman, like it might be.
The Tories need someone just as economically articulate, but with right of centre solutions. There are bound to be one or two in the new wave I should think.
Wigan’s lead didn’t last long !
Now that is better. Go Shawcross.
42, Joshua, I suggest you give it another look with both eyes open. Cable is an expert at predicting the past. He consistently calls events well after the event which I am sure you will agree is no great skill.
44 TBH It looks whoever wins will also inherit a worse situation than in 1979 economically as well. Thatcher was also aided by the Falklands and the SDP split from Labour. The example of the latter will surely deter any such new occurence because of the fate of the MPs who went over to the SDP.
The general tone here - the “let’s find a way to attack Vince C, regardless of what he says, simply because he’s not a Tory” is extremely depressing. Which economic policies have the Conservatives announced that would be preferable to what the government have done or the LDs suggested? What do you all expect the Conservative’s route out of the recession will be? What is the Conservative’s economic ideology?
None of this is expressed or articulated by you - only a petty tribalism redolent of Toynbee’s worst Labour apologeticism.
Fairly critique VC or the LDs positions and benchmark them against Conservative positions, policies and ideology and you might sound convincing. Descend into grubby, mud-slinging tribalism and you reveal yourselves as mindless sheep, blindly following a cause regardless of its direction.
I wonder if Vince’s seat might be the only one in the country to swing from Con to LD.
52 No Sheffield Hallam’s situation is much worse for the tories presently.
51. Even without The Falklands Thatcher would have got back in in 1983, but it wouldn’t have been a landslide and subsequent events would have been different
30 It depends. Last time the Conservatives were in office, they went from a majority of 43 to one of 144. Even if they suffer a net loss of seats, there are bound to be seats that will buck the trend.
OT another excellent result for the STJOHN tipping service
(Tipster of the year? You heard it here first…)
Personally, I’ve never been that impressed with Ol’Shaky Hands, nor indeed with anyone who feels the need to grasp hold of an aide memoire to assist in asking a question in the HoC.
This guy is supposed to be an intellectual isn’t he?
Listening to the exchanges between David Laws and Theresa May on AQ just the Lib Dems simply need to reply with the Tories IHT plans and leave whichever Tory floundering.
For any Kremlinologists among us, Peter Oborne’s latest column in the Mail sure is a juicy read. It claims that Mandelson and Brown are “at war again” – only, this time, insiders say the damage to their relationship is “irreparable”. The Business Secretary is said to be “bitterly unhappy” with Labour’s class war strategy, and with Brown’s reluctance to deal with the fiscal crisis. And – as Martin highlighted the other day – he wants out.
None of this is too surprising. Indeed, Mandelson has been conspicuous by his absence from the government’s PBR media drive, fuelling more than a few Westminster mumblings about his commitment to the Brownite cause. The question doing the rounds now is what a disgruntled Mandelson might mean for Brown’s immediate future: could this spell the end for our PM, even before the general election?
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/5629583/has-mandelson-given-up-on-brown.thtml
54. Rubbish. She’s have been lucky to be Leader of the Opposition. OK that’s overstating it a bit, but in early 82, BtF, she was struggling. Badly.
Agree with many above. Although Vince does a lot of U turns these are often not exposed and he appears to many that he talks a lot of sense. In practise I disagree with much he says but while he continues to effectively attack the Government (as well as the Tories) I see little mileage in the Tories attacking him. It could be counter productive and give Vince even more profile. I agree Ken Clarke can more than cope with Vince but I think it is more important that Ken exposes the Government’s errors.
16.Peter Buss, very good analysis, and totally agree.
The Tories can’t seriously attack Cable because on the economy he has been proven right repeatedly and Osborne has been proven wrong. Only this week boy George confidently told the media that thanks to the PBR Britain’s credit rating was under threat. The following day the credit agencies release a statement saying there is no imminent risk to the UK’s AAA rating and nothing has happened to change this.
Cable may be the one LibDem people can recognise, but as he has sage-like status thats not a bad thing. Osborne is one of the few Tories people can recognise, and as so many Tories recognise when they clamour for his replacement that is a bad thing.
My only criticism of Vince is that he bottled it slightly by doubling the Mansion Tax threshold to £2m. He was always going to get it in the neck from wealthy Tories anxious to protect the family silver regardless (just see the comments from the Tory herd on this thread for proof of that) so he may as well have gone for broke.
60. Wrong. IIRC the Tories polling nadir came in summer 81 in the wake of the riots, during the autumn and winter of 81/82 they recovered steadily and by Spring 82 they were level pegging the Alliance with Labour and distant third.
Do you seriously think that voters would have chosen Michael Foot running on “The Longest Suicide Note In History?”
59 For some curious reason, Mandelson decided to commit his entire political future with that of Brown - decidedly not a smart move imho. He won’t quit now, it too late for him, it’s too late for everyone. Fifteen weeks from now Cameron will be ensconced in Downing Street.
Ladbrokes:
Twickenham
Liberal Democrats 1/10
Conservatives 5/1
(O/T:
Blaenau Gwent
Dai Davies 8/11
Labour Evs)
63 There is widespread concern about the UK government’s credit rating. The cost of insuring UK government debt has risen sharply, recently.
60. Just before the Falklands, the Conservatives were at level-pegging with Labour and the Alliance, according to polls. It is likely that as inflation fell, and the economy grew strongly, that the Conservatives’ rating would have risen.
63 - It’s the Lib Dems dream scenario to get Cable into a TV debate with Osborne.
60 - I doubt that.
Galtieri had some effect of Thatchers fortune but it was the feverish attempts of Tony Benn and his allies to destroy the Labour Party that sealed her success.
65 If some international post comes up you would guess he would want it though.
52 Carshalton and Wallington also looking tricky for the Tories.
Can still get 5/2 Lib Dems to hold onto that one
I probably pay more attention to politics and what politicans are saying and doing than 95% of the population and I don’t have a clue what Cable or the Lib Dems policies are regarding tax, spending, the recession and the national debt.
There was the Mansion Tax thing but that seemed to fall apart both times it was mooted, so God knows whether that is part of the Lib Dem policy. I recall there was a suggestion that the first £10k of earnings should be exempt from income tax, which sounds good, until you think through all the implications and I have no impression that the Lib Dems have done so.
Probably most of us here are guilty of over analysing the chicken entrails of politics and believing that the majority of the population share our hobby.
For me Cable is just another talking head that pops up from time to time on the TV and the wireless and spouts a few platitudes which leave me shouting at the set because once again the interviewer has failed to ask pertinent and obvious follow up questions. Cable, and the Lib Dems generally, have zero impact on events and so are an irrelevance.
40 The point is Vince dodged the argument in favour of bleating about her political views. Not impressive at all.
70 Why?
63.67.
‘There is widespread concern about the UK government’s credit rating. The cost of insuring UK government debt has risen sharply, recently.’
Whilst this has been pointed out and sourced repeatedly on pb, you’d have to have been in a news black out zone to have missed it in the last 24 hours. R5Live gave a lesson on it yesterday and R4 covered the spike this am.
69 Punter - like I said, it had better happen for him PDQ. In any event he was passed over for the job he really wanted - “Mrs Kellner”, hitherto unheard of, got it instead.
Brake highly regarded on the ground.
Local Con association really struggling.
Pretty sure Sutton and Cheam will turn Blue just think C and W much more difficult.
58 - IHT remains the albatross around Tory necks. They don’t get that whatever their polls tell them about how apparently popular this one policy is, when placed into context of a wider economic policy and priorities its utterly toxic.
There is a very real narrative now about how the Tories are a party of the rich for the rich looking after the rich. IHT is undeniable proof that they want to cut the tax bills of the very well off. The desire to axe the 50p tax band is further proof. Their apparent objection to a tax on bank bonuses is yet further proof. Then they hear Osborne say “we’re all in this together”, remember that little list and look at the cacophany of demands for Tory ministers to cut 5/10/25% of public sector jobs, and start wondering whose interests the Tories really do represent. And thats without mentioning Zac “£10k is irrelevant” Goldsmith or Ashcroft.
For all the bleating by Tory posters on these subjects, the proof is in the embarassed shifty reaction of any front bencher on any media outlet whenever these subjects come up. They know they are toxic, but can do nothing about it because they also happen to be true. Facts - whilst not always relevant in political discourse - have an unfortunate habit of resurfacing no matter how deeply you try and bury them.
76 Maybe it’ll limit the swing but only K & S and Twickenham look really safe for the Lib Dems in South West London.
71. http://www.libdems.org.uk/siteFiles/resources/PDF/Pocket%20Guide%20July%202009.pdf
Vince doesn’t doesn’t get scruntinised because he’s not going to be chancellor. He’s a soft target.
Don’t go for him and he gets airtime. Go for him he gets more airtime and you look mean. It’s like trying to beat up on a puppy in public. It might be a smelly snippy thing but you’re just going to have to let the public go ‘ahhh’.
If he was about to be Chancellor, he’s been ‘Andrew Neilled’ regularly and that would be that.
Vince doesn’t doesn’t get scruntinised because he’s not going to be chancellor. He’s a soft target.
Don’t go for him and he gets airtime. Go for him he gets more airtime and you look mean. It’s like trying to beat up on a puppy in public. It might be a smelly snippy thing but you’re just going to have to let the public go ‘ahhh’.
If he was about to be Chancellor, he’s been ‘Andrew Neilled’ regularly and that would be that.
77. You didn’t watch Hammond on Newsnight then.
But, you are right about 1 thing; facts have a habit of resurfacing
Gilt prices fell sharply yesterday as investors began to digest the Government’s pre-Budget report and fears that Britain’s credit rating will be downgraded intensified.
Yields on 10-year gilts jumped 14 basis points by close of trading as confidence in Government debt spiralled downwards, dragging prices down with it, the Independent reports.
The gilts market is also pricing in fears Alistair Darling’s forecasts for recovery are over-optimistic, and his spending cuts too little, to manage the huge public deficit.
http://www.ifaonline.co.uk/ifaonline/news/1565776/gilts-tumble-pbr-intensifies-downgrade-fears-papers
“58 - IHT remains the albatross around Tory necks. They don’t get that whatever their polls tell them about how apparently popular this one policy is, when placed into context of a wider economic policy and priorities its utterly toxic.”
You mustn’t assume that swing voters share your beliefs. That’s the mistake that you’re making.
77
Ian Bailey
Facts - whilst not always relevant in political discourse - have an unfortunate habit of resurfacing no matter how deeply you try and bury them.
Try telling that to Gordon Brown about deficits, booms and busts, house price inflation, expenses and arming for a war.
Then start on the Conservatives.
“Petard hoist by own your.” Try rearranging to form a well known expression.
77: Ian Bailey @ 15:11
Facts do indeed have an unfortuante habit of resurfacing no matter how deeply one might try and bury them.
Of course, in politics, the attempt at burying can be undertaken by someone from the other side. For example, if a party said we want to do X but it will have to wait until we can afford it so it is not a priority, their opponents might well try and bury the last two parts - indeed they might even try and pretend X was the highest priority. Ring any bells?
Spin and lies, spin and lies. Its all we get from this government, and some of its supporters, and I am sick of it.
FPT Thanks to Stjohn for the Razor Royale tip. Put it in a forecast with Poquelin. Happy days!!
86. If Villa win, it is reasonable to expect we may not see stjohn for several days…
Sean Fear at 83: “You mustn’t assume that swing voters share your beliefs. That’s the mistake that you’re making.”
That’s an almost universal phenomenon on pb.com, isn’t it? A good half of all posts basically say “I can’t believe how crap X are in view of issue Y, the public will really react against them now.” Sometimes the public obliges, but often they’ve barely noticed coverage of Y at all or think all the parties are much the same or actually think X’s policy on Y is rather good.
FWIW (bearing the qabove in mind!) I do think Ian is correct that swing voters don’t much like the Tory IHT policy, inmsofar as they’re aware of it, and it does play a negative role in the ‘have the Tories changed for the better?’ assessment in that group. But Labour needs to provide more ammunition on that, which is why I favour opening up the “they still want to get rid of the 45p tax” front more than we currently do.
83 - Any Questions came from sunny Bracknell, a safe Tory seat, and the loudest applause on the whole show was Laws attack on the IHT policy, leaving Theresa May desperate to squirm away from the issue.
About 12 min is here.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b006qgvj
And of course we have the recent polling evidence in the Northern Marginals poll.
88. “I do think Ian is correct that swing voters don’t much like the Tory IHT policy”
According to the Fink, every opinion poll says you’re wrong.
For Ian. Just one of many.
Investors take fright at ‘fiscal fiction’
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/7f9daa08-e5ce-11de-b5d7-00144feab49a.html?nclick_check=1
77 - Facts are facts, yes, but the way they are portrayed and perceived is the point.
There is an old joke about Nixon and Kruschev playing golf. Pravda reported that “Kruschev came in second, but Nixon finished next to last”.
Also the impression created by SOME of the facts may be different than that created when ALL the facts are considered.
It’s hard to make out that letting people keep their own money is ‘bad’, merely because they are fortunate or industrious enough to have some. Saying the IHT cut is bad is analogous to saying that all tax cuts are bad because they only affect those wealthy enough to pay taxes, and do not help those who don’t.
74,82 Gilts fell as the market feared a threat to the UK’s AAA status. Then on Thursday Moodys said that the UK and US uniquely were classed as “resilient” - various commentators quoting rating agency bods as it being impossible to downgrade the UK without also doing the US - which is impossible.
At which point the gilt market started to recover through Thursday afternoon and Friday. The perception put about by the Tories and the right wing press is that Britain is borrowing more money than anyone else, that we’re uniquely having our rating looked at. Moodys said they were “keeping a close eye” on the UK, UK, France and Germany. Why did the right wing press make out that it was just Britain under scrutiny then?
So the price of insuring against us defaulting increased. Is it any wonder? Remember the herd mentality in the market - talk up a risk, one goes, everyone goes. People make money, the market corrects and away we go again.
I disagree with this thesis almost completely. Certainly Vince Cable is a Lib Dem asset. But what is the big economic challenge? Getting the budget deficit under control. And that is a subject which the Tories have sole ownership of. Vince Cable has status as a commentator, but if I were a Tory strategist, I would be intensely relaxed about the parties’ positioning on the economy.
Of course if I was sitting in CCHQ right now reading PB, I would be looking at who is shouting loudest about scrapping the IHT policy
Nick Palmer MP
tim
Ian Bailey
If Southam Observer joined in it would be a nailed on vote winner
77 - So trying to reverse the Labour stealth tax on any income over £20k is looking after the well off?
Brown has made a massive error by forcing Darling to increase NI rather than VAT, as the better off have benefited by paying less tax on large purchases and hitting an income level which is not particually high instead.
Also the increase in NI will force government departments to cut even more jobs as the employer contributions have also increased.
Every time IHT is mentioned by Labour/Lib Dems the Conservatives bat it back by stating their priority is to stop the NI increase on people who are not well off, the ‘Labour war on Jobs’.
88.NickP, I think that IHT really began to play on the minds of financially savvy +55’s who own their own home, savings and kids over the last 12 years whether they are effected by it or not. And this age group tend to vote.
90 - If thats what Fink said, he made it up.
Some 61 per cent of marginal voters say the Tory plan to raise the inheritance tax threshold to £1million shows they “mainly want to help the rich, not ordinary people”.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/6673177/Poll-Tories-advance-on-key-Labour-strongholds.html
89.So there was a good Libdem/Lab crowd in then?
94 They seem to be doing quite a lot to ape a policy they think is inherently unfair and which no one likes.
what labour has really got wrong is people’s attitude to inheritance tax.
It is a perfectly reasonable hypothesis that people regard inheritance tax as a good tax. It is imposed on children who haven’t earned the money. It doesn’t tax the endeavour of the taxpayer. Only a small proportion ever pay it. It redistributes wealth.
As I say, it is a reasonable hypothesis that inheritance tax would enjoy public support.
But it doesn’t. And George Osborne knew that before he made his announcement.
It turns out - from intensive polling - that people regard IHT as fundamentally unfair, taxing money that has already been taxed. Many voters fear they might pay it because they don’t think the thresholds will keep rising as they have.
This support holds even when they are pressed on the negative arguments.
Voters don’t think any tax cuts would be fair right now because everyone is facing spending, benefit and pay cuts.
But as a policy in itself? An IHT cut is a winner.
http://timesonline.typepad.com/comment/2009/11/the-observer-carries-a-story-that-the-government-is-contemplating-announcing-a-suspension-of-its-inheritance-tax-cut-in-the-p.html
O/T - But betting related, in Peter Oborne’s column today, he has this little snippet
“Local opinion polls show that BNP leader Nick Griffin stands an excellent chance of unseating veteran Labour MP Margaret Hodge in the East London constituency of Barking at the General Election”
Does anyone have any information on this local opinion poll? Is it a voodoo local news paper one?
He also mentions that Cameron should let the tory candidate stand aside to stop the BNP.
He’s also mentioning
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/columnists/article-1235182/PETER-OBORNE-Revealed-How-Brown-Mandelson-war-again.html
zzzzzzzzzz, more IHT “debate” courtesy of TimBot.
97. And if you ask “is it right that someone leaving a home just above average value should pay IHT?” what answer will you get?
Everybody knows.
91 - thats an article from Thursday. I know the market fell on fears on us losing our AAA status - I have said so at least twice.
What did the market do after Thursday? After Moodys said there was no chance of that downgrade happening?
90 - yes, opinion polls have shown the Tories that IHT is unpopular. Yet when packed with other policies post conference their lead has fallen towards no majority territory. Like I said, its not the single policy thats the issue, its the context its framed in.
85 - huh? Yes, the Tories have an aspiration to reduce IHT as not the first priority in the first parliament. We know that. Thats the problem. They have an aspiration to give various rich people various tax cuts at the same time as giving various low paid people their P45. Noone is unclear about the phasing of these activities - IHT comes after P45.
Its the fact that its there at all that turns it into a weapon, not whether or not it happens on the first morning of Cameron’s administration.
95.John, agree, the NI tax is a big error. The Tory IHT is aimed at making only the rich pay, Gordon shows us yet again that he is always been more fond of taxing the least able to avoid it.
re previous thread Blair is so deluded he probably doesn’t know what the truth is any more. It gladdens me to see his reputation being justifiably trashed. It would make me ecstatic to see justice done and him arraigned at the Hague
102 - Well he has to do something to take the attention away from the PBR which has a new nasty exposed each day which effects the the majority, not a wealthy minority.
Labour ‘Tax the majority while the wealthy get even more wealthy’
77. “Facts - whilst not always relevant in political discourse - have an unfortunate habit of resurfacing no matter how deeply you try and bury them.”
Indeed they do, I’ve been much enjoying the dismantling of the PBR and Labour’s laughable claims. Those damn facts keep on getting in the way of Gordon’s lies.
100 - No one doubts it was popular pre recession.
88: Nick Palmer at 15:27
I agree with what you say in your second paragraph, but aren’t you letting your, political, slip show in the third?
If the conservative ideas on IHT were so bad what was the reason your party tried to emulate them a few weeks after they were announced?
As you know, I am not rich and certainly nobody special so why should my son have to sell the family home, a modest four bed 1970s house, when I snuff it? Death Duty when it was introduced was a tax on the landed rich. If the value on the estates on which it is imposed had kept pace with inflation what would it be now? What is worse the really rich families don’t pay it! They can afford the expert advice whch enables them to get rpound the wretched imposition.
Sorry, Nick, but if you want to come on here and talk about IHT I am going to keep asking these questions and making the point that the rich don’t pay it, only those who can’t afford to plan their way out of it.
What did the market do after Thursday? It went down and then back up again. This morning market was accused of ‘Holding the country to ransom’. Only to be told the buyers are buying risk and the price has to reflect that. They have also made it clear that they expect the likely change of Government to help matters and have factored that in.
What happened to the bond markets after G Osborne’s conference speech? Have a guess.
On NI - I thought that everyone accepted that taxes would go up and spending would go down? Personally I would have gone with the VAT hike - hell, we’ll probably have both. At least with NI it hits everyone over £20k - VAT just hits everyone.
If IHT is boring, lets go back to Vince Cable. Now, Vince rightly predicted most of the major events in the crash. Osborne - having predicted none of them - is the better choice to be First Lord. Discuss.
Vince Cable - “Master of stating the bleeding obvious, AFTER the event”
104 - Ian, Labour has always been a high taxation party. Inevitably the lowest paid will be the most affected in such a situation - the wealthy can always find ways to avoid tax which the poorer cannot. Taxation increases also increase the costs of doing business which has to passed on in higher prices.
So whether by intention or merely the ‘Law of Unintended Consequences’, Labour governments always hurt the poor rather than the rich.
It’s really quite a testamont the the resilience of some posters, that, despite having had the PBR throughly trashed, they want to start right back at the beginning and do it all over again.
With Labour’s stupid decision to raise NI and Tories obvious opposition nullifies any rubbish about IHT.
As several as the papers put it Labour, “War on Workers” and “Soak the rich and the rest of us”…
112 - I don’t have to guess - it went up. So, next time Osborne states that Britain risks default and a drop in credit rating (and as he’s said it half a dozen or so times now I’m sure he will again), given the fact that the credit agency people have said that our credit rating like America’s is essentially bullet proof, does that make him a liar or just deaf? Either way, the talking down the economy charge is proven. I thought Chancellors - or their shadows - were supposed to talk it up….?
*testament
SkyBet - Aberdeen South
Lab 6/4
LD 2/1
Con 7/2
SNP 5/1
104 - this is what Labour has done
http://www.spectator.co.uk/spectator/thisweek/5618783/part_2/who-would-lend-to-a-bankrupt-britain.thtml
“Now, enter what the markets are saying. The Wall Street Journal reports that two years ago it cost $5,000 per year to insure $10 million of British government debt against default for three years. It now costs $52,000 to buy such insurance”
The more we spend on interest etc (on the debt) the less we have to spend on schools and hospitals…..
How did we end up here?
Who was it who was spending more that we could afford even when times were “good”?
116 It went down.
I would have more belief in the :Labour supporters’ attacks on Conservative IHT policy if they would tell me why the former PM Tony Blair has such complex tax avoidance systems.
And it’s the Guardian complaining!
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/dec/01/mystery-tony-blair-finances
But then IHT - and income taxes- are only paid by “the little people”..
When the Labour Party former Leader is busy avoiding tax , I am struck by the hypocrisy of Labour supporters who do not mention it.
But then they are hypocrites.
Tim, I await your comments on Tony Blair as you love talking IHT A simple condemnation would be enough.
I think we are all missing the point about Vince Cable. Nick P nearly got there when he asked: “Whether the Tories should take him on is another question” but then got sidetracked with praise of Ken Clarke.
What Vince Cable supplies both the Tories and the broadcasters is third party endorsement. The old PR justification of which message is more powerful: “I am a really beautiful man/woman” or “There is a really beautiful man/woman in the room next door”. When the Beeb line up Byrne on one side of the interviewer and Cable and Hammond on the other, the broadcaster can both claim to be impartial and allow the government’s message to be destroyed “on balance”. The Tories don’t need to shriek, they just need to oppose policy then allow Cable to endorse and embellish.
Cable is an effective TV communicator who spouts reasoned sound bites like an accomplished cigar smoker puffs perfect rings. Let him continue.
re 112 I don’t think Osborne has any ambitions to be First Lord of the Treasury, does he? Just the second.
121 - former PM Tony Blair has such complex tax avoidance systems
I’m no fan of Blair but tax avoidance is legal, ethical, moral and perfectly reasonable: if a person wants to so arrange their financial affairs so as to pay the least amount of tax, what is wrong with that?
How does it make sense to arrange your affairs to pay more tax than you need to?
122 I wouldn’t be surprised if many people weren’t very interested in the Tony Blair Show. Bit like an old boyfriend you thought was great at the time but are now rather embarrassed about.
121 - tim also likes to bang on about health issues …
Has he commented on this yet?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/health/healthnews/6790595/Coroner-criticises-scandalous-midwife-shortages-following-death-of-baby.html
PaddyPower - Next Chancellor of the Exchequer?
George Osborne 1/3
Vince Cable 8/1
Philip Hammond 8/1
Ed Balls 12/1
Ed Miliband 20/1
David Miliband 25/1
Kenneth Clarke 33/1
Andy Burnham 40/1
Alan Johnson 50/1
John Hutton 66/1
Peter Mandelson 66/1
Hilary Benn 80/1
Harriet Harman 100/1
125.SallyC, and it reminds you of why you dumped him in the first place.
It’s the hypocrisy of Labour/left wingers.
How many times have you seen them complain about the (perfectly legal) tax arrangements of the likes of Lord Ashcroft, Zac Goldsmith, David Cameron, George Osborne and like to play the toffs only interested in looking after toffs.
Where they never mention the tax arrangements of say, Saint Tony, Lord Sainsbury, Lord Mittal, Shaun Woodward for example.
123 - yes, my second typo after replying “up” to SallyC on the gilt market when I meant down (either way, it improved, the opposite of post PBR!)
113 - to listen to some of you would be to think that Britain is a high tax country. Why do the OECD think we’re in the lower half of the EU on tax then?
125 - for a terrible minute I had a mental image of groupies trying to get a bit of his clothing when he was with his band…
;-(
129 - Don’t forget The Guardian!
127 - He was 24/1 a few days ago.
“And of course we have the recent polling evidence in the Northern Marginals poll.”
The evidence showed an above-average swing to the Conservatives, together with the Conservatives leading slightly among working-class voters.
129 was for 124
132 - Yes, you can add the Guardian to the list.
Another bad story for Battling Bob
oh, this is another story where Labour lied……..
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/piracy/6792746/Bob-Ainsworth-had-two-opportunities-to-save-British-yacht-couple.html
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V4hfYkz-5HQ
Watch Vince on here
Should we take chief Tory Ramper Macrory’s silence on tonights poll a sign that it is no great shakes for the the Blue Team?
“He also mentions that Cameron should let the tory candidate stand aside to stop the BNP”
So who would the conservative voters be advised to vote for? It certainly wouldn’t be Labour.
Perhaps Labour can get their BNP mates to stand everywhere, and let the conservatives stand aside.
134 Any thoughts on 101.
Vince Cable was poor value at 24/1 for next Chancellor. At 8/1 he’s terrible value.
As an aside, I haven’t heard anything on Iraq either from the enquiry or now direct from Blair that I didn’t already know.
Its very simple. Blair decided that the UK best interest was whatever America decided was its best interest. Our policy was designed to facilitate whatever the psychotic PNAC lunatics in the White House wanted to do regardless or morality or the law.
If IHT is boring, lets go back to Vince Cable. Now, Vince rightly predicted most of the major events in the crash. Osborne - having predicted none of them - is the better choice to be First Lord. Discuss.
by Ian Bailey December 12th, 2009 at 3:46 pm
Ian - out of curiosity, please can you link to any one of Vince’s predictions of most of the major events in the crash? Thanks.
130 - to listen to some of you would be to think that Britain is a high tax country. Why do the OECD think we’re in the lower half of the EU on tax then?
Merely saying that Britain doesn’t tax as heavily as some other countries doesn’t mean it’s not a high tax country. That’s the same kind of nonsense as saying that the UK is not spending enough on health because some other countries spend more.
121 - If Blair were to stand for office I think any IHT avoidance schemes may be an issue, although David Camerons lack of clarity on how many houses he owns suggests there may be some interesting schemes swirling around in his family.
Personally I’d allow Blair to pass on whatever wealth he wishes to his children but tax it as their income, thus ending avoidance schemes.
130
Ian Bailey
113 - to listen to some of you would be to think that Britain is a high tax country. Why do the OECD think we’re in the lower half of the EU on tax then?
They can’t keep up with the tax rises.
No-one except the UK tax income at 100%…
Please keep up: Gordon raised taxes and NI at the last PBR..
In my last post the spelling checker red-lined Labour (it is set to USA spelling right now, I’m not at my normal PC). Alternative suggestions were Labor and Layabout.
Pretty clever, eh?
“But Labour needs to provide more ammunition on that, which is why I favour opening up the “they still want to get rid of the 45p tax” front more than we currently do.”
Of course, the Conservatives wish to. They want the UK economy to be internationally competitive.
What do Labour want?
129 - It was Cameron who said Zac must sort his tax status out wasn’t it?
121
tim
Thanks for replying.
Perhaps you can educate fellow sympathisers to learn summat and not regurgitate the party line in total ignorance…
141 - Agreed, but didn’t stop me putting some money on.
Thinking about it, i think after the events of today, I think we can agree, I’m not going to get any winnings on the money I put on Tony Blair being the next Labour leader at 250/1
And there’s no hope of Lady Scotland resigning by 31st of December, or Mandy becoming PM and Ed Balls Chancellor by the 31st of December either is there?
147 - mine is on USA spell check all the time, and it’s a constant battle with the Webster spellings: center, color, labor, theater etc…
You do get some interesting suggestions though
150 should be for 145
tim
141. antifrank - “Vince Cable was poor value at 24/1 for next Chancellor. At 8/1 he’s terrible value.”
Agreed.
You’d really need your head felt to take that price. PP are having a larf.
The Screaming Eagles, I guess I should not hold too much hope for my “Hazel Blears for next Labour leader” betting slip either.
150 - My posts bear reflect a party line?
Thats about as accurate as your stock market forecasts.
3000 by the end of the year was it?
“Local opinion polls show that BNP leader Nick Griffin stands an excellent chance of unseating veteran Labour MP Margaret Hodge in the East London constituency of Barking at the General Election. Shouldn’t David Cameron help see off his odious challenge by ordering the Tory candidate to step aside in Barking and make common cause with Labour against the BNP?”
I’m not aware of any such polls, and I doubt if a Conservative withdrawal would help Lady Hodge. In any case, Conservatives voters in Barking (there are c.5,000 after all) should have the chance of voting for a Conservative candidate.
138 “Should we take chief Tory Ramper Macrory’s silence on tonight’s poll a sign that it is no great shakes for the the Blue Team?”
No. More likely the guy just hasn’t heard anything yet.
158 - I see he’s ramping a voodoo poll/phone in
155 - Antifrank, I think I can top that. I worked out recently, I have at one point or another, backed 14 different people to be the next Labour leader. For comedy value I list them here
1) Tony Blair
James Purnell
2) Lord Mandelson
3) Ed Balls
4) Harriet Harman
5) David Miliband
6) Ed Miliband
7) Jack Straw
9) Boris Johnson
10) Alastair Darling
11) John Denham
12) John Reid
13) Jon Cruddas
14) Andy Burnham
138 Oracle
“Should we take chief Tory Ramper Macrory’s silence on tonight’s poll a sign that it is no great shakes for the the Blue Team?”
It might be taking longer this week to count the lead.
157 - Thanks for that Sean. I cant find that poll anywhere, despite the best attempts of Google.
139. Oborne’s suggestion that Tories stand aside so that Margaret Hodge is safe from the BNP challenge is odious.
If the voters want, in sufficient number a BNP MP against any of the potential candidates then who is Oborne to say they should be denied?
Any idea that the established parties were ‘ganging up’ on the BNP only increases their appeal.
It’s the voters who decide not the political establishment and the Tories should not give any hint of wanting to deny Tory voters the opportunity to cats their vote FOR the cause and not just AGAINST the BNP.
109 So people agree with cutting IHT, when we are in a position to do so.
Of course cutting taxes would mainly make rich people better off - the more money you have, the more you get to keep when tax is cut. Tax cuts would mainly help people wealthier than I am. But I am in no doubt that cutting tax is the right thing to do. Must it be assumed we all believe in the politics of envy, and that rich people somehow do not deserve to be allowed to keep it?
And cutting IHT doesn’t mainly help the wealthy, it helps those people whose parents’ estate is worth more than the current low limits, which do not take account of the cost of ordinary family homes in some parts of the country. If IHT limits are raised, I will be better off one day myself - and so will very many people be, of all income levels.
130 ‘Up’ instead of ‘down’ was a typo?
Hummn. Not entirely clear from the rest of your post.
92 TimB Agree completely (surprise, surprise!) If there is one thing that leftie politicians say that gets my goat more than anything else, it’s portraying tax cuts as giving money to the rich. Ahem, it’s taking less money from those who are taxed, many of whom are not the rich. It has absolutely nothing to do with giving anything to anyone.
160 - TSE for comedy value it would be hard to beat Tony Robinson -Baldrick having a cunning plan to reduce the deficit would be a hoot: not so funny for those already affected by Brown and Blair’s cunning plans, but would raise a titter or two…
160. TSE
John Reid?!?
He announced that he was standing down from parliament over 2 years ago!! How on earth could he become Labour leader without being an MP?
Vince may very well be the next Chancellor. Lets put it like this, in the event of a hung parliament, I would have thought Vince being Chancellor would be an absolute given for a LibDem condition of joining in.
It all depends on whether or not you think the Tories will win outright. If you do then Vince at 1000/1 is bad value, never mind 8/1.
143 - Vince calling for the nationalisation of NR for starters. Needed to prevent the whole system impolding he said. Next thing you know NR is on the books and Bush is nationalising en-masse. OK so he didn’t directly predict all events but he was the siren voice in the wilderness when Labour and the Tories were falling over each other in a bid to have the most laisse-faire regulatory policies.
164 - absolutely. We cannot gag the BNP, we have to let them gag themselves. If knuckle-draggers want to vote in Griffin or anyone else as a BNP MP then that is their absolute right.
Anyway, elected BNP representatives always eff-up. Check out their record on local councils.
Paddy Power - No. of Tory Women that become official cabinet members
- Settled by the 1st official list of cabinet members published on the No 10 website after Cameron is PM. Only includes official cabinet members, not those who are only allowed to attend. Void if Cameron does not become PM after the next general election.
0 - 3 10/1
4 5/2
5 11/8
6 9/4
7 or more 4/1
168 - I placed that bet on John Reid a long time ago.
Obviously you all haven’t spotted my typo in 160, anyone want to give me odd on Boris Johnson on being next Labour leader?
I meant Alan Johnson
164 I agree with the rest of your post entirely, but saying Of course cutting taxes would mainly make rich people better off is completely untrue. You don’t make people better off by not taking their money; You merely prevent them from being worse off.
148. I thought Labour had got rid of the 45% tax band themselves? It’s going to be 50% isn’t it?
169 - No. If there’s a hung Parliament, the Lib Dems would first need to join a coalition for Vince Cable to become next Chancellor. It’s far more likely that the party with the most seats would form a minority Government. There are relatively few outcomes where the Lib Dems could stop the party with the most seats from forming the next Government with the support of another minor party, making the idea of Vince Cable as a precondition for their support untenable.
I would put Vince Cable’s odds at 50/1. There is more value on the Labour side of the fence.
170 How much is Labour fighting Barking? They seem to lack organisation there for years.
162 If anything, there is probably a vox pop in one of the local papers.
I don’t think Griffin will win (a) because I don’t think any constituency is ready to elect a BNP MP and (b) Labour’s overwhelming strength in a two horse contest, in Abbey, Gascoigne, and Lonbbridge, with their big BME populations, will outweigh the BNP’s smaller lead on the Becontree Estate.
Coral - Which month will the General Election be held?
January 2010 100/1
February 2010 25/1
March 2010 13/8
April 2010 12/1
May 2010 4/7
June 2010 20/1
168 If Brown was ousted before the election it could be done if there was a will to find him a seat and he went for the Leadership. This is Scottish Labour.
HurstLlama at 110: £700,000-£1,000,000 estates are unusual in my neck of the woods, and Broxtowe is one of the most prosperous parts of Nottingham. I think people who see this as something that they might reasonably be affected by do tend to live in the south.
I’m not confusing the public’s view with mine, though. My view is that there *isn’t* any good reason why your son should inherit your house - he should make his way himself with a moderate amount of help, and when you pass on, we hope many years hence, probably he’ll have a perfectly good home of his own. He’ll almost certainly just sell yours and treat it as a windfall, which could reasonably be shared with the wider public through IHT. So I’d actually toughen the rules up and make them harder to evade - and no, I didn’t agree with Labour tacking to the wind on that.
That’s not what most of the public thinks, though. They *are* keen on passing on modest houses and inheritance and don’t like IHT on moderate legacies. But north of Potters Bars I don’t think most floating voters feel a million quid is a modest legacy deserving priority treatment at a time of general belt-tightening. I might be wrong, of course, and I’ll leave it there - the current Tory line suits us happily enough.
175 Labour’s organisation in Barking is terrible, and the Conservatives’ is non-existent.
But non-white voters won’t need much encouragement from party workers to vote for Labour, the only party that can stop the BNP in the seat.
Griffin will probably outpoll Hodge among white voters, but she’ll have a huge lead among non-white voters.
173 I think that’s a pointless argument about semantics: if my tax bill were to be cut by £100 a month, or my net salary were to go up by £100 I would be equally better off, in that I would have £100 a month more to spend.
I of course agree with the point that by taxing people less you are not giving them money, you are simply taking less of their money off them. That seems to me to be a semantic point worth making.
172 “anyone want to give me odd on Boris Johnson on being next Labour leader?”
Well, odd looks clearly
First beardy Gavin, then Hutton, now Cable - not sure i see a change from the normal TV policy when it comes to what side of the fence they get their economic pundits from.
As to the specifically LD angle, Cable helps the LDs in a negative proportion to how much people understand the economics or at least how much faith they have in their understanding i.e the people who are least sure of their own views will be those most effected by him, so i’d say he hurts Labour vs LD more than he hurts Tory vs LD or Tory vs Labour (not so much through what he says but subliminally through him being there at all).
182 - I’m blaming my piss poor orange mobile broadband dongle for my typos.
169/174 and presumably in the event of the Liberal Democrats being the minor party in a coalition, their leader would want one of the top jobs for himself, making the availability of the Chancellor job for Vince even less likely?
179 - Nick.
Its £2million.
The biggest beneficiaries would be a couple leaving £2 million pounds.
181 - referring to IHT it is NOT a pointless semantic. I assumed from your post that you were referring to IHT.
As regards future income I agree with you: finding an extra something in your paycheck is always nice.
- it won’t be happening in March though
184 - is it not an error correcting modem?
ian - thanks for the reply, but from… “he rightly predicted most of the major events in the crash” to “OK so he didn’t directly predict all events but he was the siren voice” in the space of 5 minutes is a climb down isn’t it?
You know full well that he didn’t actually predict any of the major events (but then no one else did either really).
179 Oh my God Nick P, I thought you were only a *former* Communist, but actually it seems you don’t believe in private property at all.
The money people leave when they die has already been taxed when they acquire it, and the general presumption in English law is that your property is your own to dispose of as you wish. Long may it stay that way.
188 - Alas no. It’s very frustrating. I try and post, and it crashes. So have to retype the post again.
Orange mobile broadband would make the ideal girlfriend. It goes down every 5mins.
180. “He’ll almost certainly just sell yours and treat it as a windfall”
Whereas if IHT were higher, he’d be forced to sell it and then hand (some / most of) the proceeds to the state, who would treat it as a windfall. Yes, I know that on a national scale, there’d be a steady income but the principle’s the same.
Once again, the left says they know how to spend the public’s money better than the public does.
186 And your point is?
I would prefer to abolish IHT completely: if you get rid of a tax completely you should be able to make redundant all those civil servants currently administering it, thus saving even more money.
Cable on TV more than Darling or Osborne. What channel is this then?
Cable has been proven wrong on many occasions. He has a few good soundbites but he seems completely out of his depth.
O/T But what 3 seats do the Lib Dems have in the East of England?
Maybe IHT will stick simply because it’s the only thing I ever hear Labour politicians talk about in discussions with their Tory opponents. But when the election comes people may want to hear about other things like their record in office.
191 - and like Joy, cometh in the morning?
190 - no semantic difference here - I agree with you completely and unreservedly. NPMPs post is appalling. Unfortunately I suspect he is not alone in his “when you die it’s all the government’s to give to the people except for the crumbs we allow you to keep” stuff.
Envy and jealousy as policy: how’s that working out?
180 “Labour’s organisation in Barking is terrible, and the Conservatives’ is non-existent.”
I’m wondering if there’ll be betting markets on which seat gets the most postal votes. I think there could be very close calls between some of the Scottish seats, places like Leicester and of course Barking.
187 No, but there’ll be a feeling of quiet satisfaction on March 26th which will go some way towards making up for it.
179 NPMP My view is that there *isn’t* any good reason why your son should inherit your house - he should make his way himself
My sons are 4 and 7 years old. If I and my wife (a Nurse)die the life insurance of £400k = some odds and sods will help enable my (elderly) parents care for our children. Give me ONE reason why they should pay tax on this “windfall” or would you prefer they become a burden on the state?
193. Vince has a doctorate in economics and was chief economist at Shell. Out of his depth? You are just being silly.
How’s about Ladbrokes or Paddy Power offering markets on the basic rates of Income Tax and standard rate of VAT as at 30th Sept 2010?
To get the ball rolling, might I suggest:
VAT - STANDARD RATE
22.5%….. 10/1
INCOME TAX - BASIC RATE
23%………10/1
190, 196: So do you feel that Mr Cameron is a Communist as well, since he’s not proposing to abolish IHT altogether, as seems should follow from your view? Isn’t it actually a tenet of modern Conservatism that peoploe should thrive by their own merit and efforts rather than through inherited wealth?
194 -
North Norfolk, 10k majority will remain Lib Dem. Is where Iain Dale worked his magic.
Cambridge is one you think will remain Lib Dem, David Howarth is standing down, but is 5k/10% ahead of Labour, and the Tories a distant 3rd.
Colchester, is the one where i’ve backed the Tories to win. It’s got a 20% Labour support, that the tories will squeeze.
Plus it’s a Garrison town, and my friends who are based there, say voting Labour will collapse, as due it being the base for 16 Air Assault Brigade.
I’m betting that it’ll go straight to the Tories.
O/T - Having declared his indefinite withdrawal from competitive golf, Tiger and his missus are apparently taking a cruise on his yacht ‘Privacy’ and moving to a house in Sweden which is only accessible by sea, so he can be a better man, husband and father. Good luck with that.
Presumably IHT won’t be a discussion point - or maybe it will
So now as well as annoying his wife and his sponsors, the PGA and tournaments all over the world are going to be mad at him.
179
I have no doubt Nick P will spread his views on inheritance to such poor Labourites as Tony Blair, Lord Sainsbury, and Tony Benn - all well known millionaires.
The list of course is much longer…
179/199 I think that exchange does encapsulate perfectly, the contrasting views on IHT.
Either “it’s a windfall, be grateful for what you’ve got”. Or “It’s outrageous, to tax my parents’ property, after all the tax they’ve already paid”.
I think that the latter view is more common, but we’ll just have to wait and see.
As an aside, I think I’ve been a bit harsh on Heath. Prior to 1972, spouses were actually taxed on what they inherited from the first of them to die - so they really could have to sell the family home to pay the bill. He deserves credit for the spouse exemption.
179 “But north of Potters Bars I don’t think most floating voters feel a million quid is a modest legacy deserving priority treatment at a time of general belt-tightening.”
Then both they and you would be wrong.
Just because the house that makes a hypothetical legacy worth more than a million is valued much higher than the same house in Broxtowe doesn’t mean there’s any difference in the modest nature of the two.
206 For some reason the text of this post was heavily cropped, so here’s the full version:
How’s about Ladbrokes or Paddy Power offering markets on the basic rates of Income Tax and standard rate of VAT as at 30th Sept 2010?
To get the ball rolling, might I suggest:
VAT - STANDARD RATE
22.5%….. 10/1
INCOME TAX - BASIC RATE
23%………10/1
OT I disagree with those who think St Vince will outperform Squeeker in the GE. The gloves always come off in the actual campaign proper and ALL the parties will get challenged a lot more. We have already seen St V trip up as soon as he moves from commentating on others to actually proposing something himself.
209 - Backed the Tories at 13/8 in Colchester
202: life insurance isn’t a windfall, nor is it an inheritance (since you aren’t the beneficiary if you’re the deceased). By definition, it’s a prepaid return on protection against risk, and very different from inheriting a £1 million (or, as tim points out, a £2 million) estate for no particular reason except that you’re related to someone else who earned it. The anti-IHT position denies the whole 20th century direction of political thought away from landed estates and in favour of meritocracy.
209 Plausible but there’s a chance the Lib Dem will take a big amount of Labour’s support as well. He’s had a long incumbency ands will no doubt be aware of what he has to do. They look likely to bag Norwich South as well I’d reckon as the Lamb machine rolls south with advanced bar chart technology.
206, 214 Same problem - Please ignore, I give up!
210 Moving to Sweden in December? Lots of long nights in must be planned
214 PfP
What are the odds on 20% Vat rate?
212 - I wonder how much tax has been paid on the estate the Camerons will inherit from Sir Reginald Sheffield which dates back a couple of hundred years.
Very little I suspect, its an accident of birth rather than earned income.
209 I’m sure that the Lib Dems will hold all three.
One of the interesting things about IHT is that HMRC often operate outside the law. This can work in favour of the taxpayer (eg many products sold by life assurance companies are IHT-exempt, even though a strict reading of IHT law means they should be taxed) or against the taxpayer, (eg Revenue officers’ attempts to make people pay penalties, even when they have no right to demand them).
The Capital Taxes Office (as was) was pretty gentlemanly, but it’s now been merged with Customs and Excise, in the hope that they will adopt their rather more vicious approach towards taxpayers.
207 No, the reason I called you a communist was in response to this section of your post:
“My view is that there *isn’t* any good reason why your son should inherit your house - he should make his way himself with a moderate amount of help, and when you pass on, we hope many years hence, probably he’ll have a perfectly good home of his own. He’ll almost certainly just sell yours and treat it as a windfall, which could reasonably be shared with the wider public through IHT. So I’d actually toughen the rules up and make them harder to evade”
And you seem to think that the way to help people to “thrive by their own merit and efforts” is to steal their money from them in the first place. This is b0ll0cks.
217 “The anti-IHT position denies the whole 20th century direction of political thought away from landed estates and in favour of meritocracy.”
No it doesn’t. It points to grave robbing by the state.
218 - Very valid point about the Labour supporters going to the Lib Dems.
Re Norwich South, I’d recommend Bunnco’s article on the seat.
http://politicalbetting.blogspot.com/2009/10/theres-something-about-norwich.html
222 It’s probably taxed in the same way as your farm.
217 When it was introduced, Estate Duty was just a tax on the very rich. Less than 10% owned the house they lived in. However, property ownership has become much more widespread since then, and attitudes towards the tax have changed.
The BNP are a symptom of a Labour government.
The problem is the Labour party.
All voters must vote for the party most likely to defeat Labour in their area.
NPMP’s position appears to be that property and money belong to the state without good reason otherwise. I think that speaks for itself.
210 I can’t help thinking Tiger would have been better to have left his wife and devoted his energy to golf and screwing around.
It would at least be honest, anyway. “It turns out I’m no good at marriage and, being in the fortunate position that I can have almost any woman I want, I prefer being promiscuous”.
230 Have you seen his wife?
217 The policy pays off the mortgage, amongst other things, the joke being we have already baled the Banks out. The money goes into the Estate and then once liabilities are cleared (Mortgage etc) the rest goes to my children. There can and will be a liability. The amount of that liability depends on the housing market valuation at the time as much as anything.
You still do not address the point that My wife and I as sensible law abiding and hard working people have sort to provide care for our young children (out of TAXED income) in the event of our deaths. EXPLAIN why tax should be levied on this?
Get rid of Labour and the BNP will melt away…
217. Trouble is landed estates are not the ones hit hard by IHT. It is those who own their own homes, not grand and certainly not paid for by the taxpayer, and have kept their lump sums in case of future need who are the ones caught in the net.
If Labour think it is just the landed gentry who are affected by IHT, I do hope they do no canvassing around our village as they will find a majority of people seriously worried by your party’s attitude and your canvassers will be at risk from more than just an ear-bashing.
231 There are plenty more tall, scrawny blondes who would shag a wealthy sportsman.
In any case, the fact that he appears to have cheated on his wife with at least 10 women seems to indicate that he just doesn’t *get* marriage. What’s wrong with admitting that?
225 - Then, as Osborne wishes to keep the principle, after voting his family a million pound tax cut, would that make him a greedy communist grave robber?
Further to Cambridge, the Tories have selected their new candidate today
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/goldlist/2009/12/nick-hillman-selected-for-cambridge.html
231 The square faced blond is not to everyones taste.
Perhaps Tiger woke up at night and thought he was in bed with Dolph Lundgren or worse, Brigitte Nielsen.
More’s likely he has Hugh Grant or Eddie Murphy syndrome…
231 - How do you teel the difference between US golfers wive?
They all seem to have been cloned in some Florida lab.
217 - A meritocracy is a system in which you rise and fall by your own efforts, rather than simply by inheriting wealth.
If someone should be so fortunate to become a wealthy man, achieving that wealth by his own efforts and skill, he should be able to dispose of it how he wishes when he dies. Why should the government get any of it merely because he dies? The government gave him nothing - indeed taxed his earnings throughout his life - so why should it have any say in grabbing some or most of what’s left after he’s already paid tax on it?
If he knows up front that the government will prevent him providing for his family, what is his incentive to provide for his family?
Enabling people to succeed on their own merits is fine and a Good Thing. But there is nothing wrong or immoral about inherited wealth either. The first generation creates the wealth and passes it on to the next.
This is simply big government with a heavy socialist twist.
As I said earlier – envy, greed and jealousy as policy: how’s it working out for you so far?
231 Have you seen his pron stars?
239 - having met several I can attest to the untruth of that remark.
223 “The Capital Taxes Office (as was) was pretty gentlemanly, but it’s now been merged with Customs and Excise, in the hope that they will adopt their rather more vicious approach towards taxpayers.”
Sean Fear-Exactly what we have been told by friends and “professionals”
By the way NPMP if you loose your job in March/May do we get back all the goodies and toys you have bought with our money? Do we get the “office ” equipment back from the MP’s that loose their jobs?
In addition if the election is held in May, how many Annual subs and payments etc will be shoved through the system at the start of the new financial year?
241 Maybe he felt a professional would be better at it.
I would scrap inheritance Death Tax altogether. Why shouldnt we be permitted to leave something to our children?
If there is a question of revenue rather than wealth prevention, how about this proposal…
If the inheritor makes an inherited house their main home, Death tax would be available on their original home. That way people could inherit their family home without being crucified.
224. Agreed. Insane isn’t life jolly, Smiles self help optimism - “he should make his way himself with a moderate amount of help, and when you pass on, we hope many years hence, probably he’ll have a perfectly good home of his own” - coupled with a failure to understand that what most incentivises most parents is the desire to look after their own children both during their own lives and afterwards.
“Republican Tory”
Sock Puppet alert.
240 There’s an interesting article on Con Home’s Centre Right that touches on this.
Assume we created the perfect meritocracy. Imagine how you would feel at the bottom of such a society, where you knew that your relative poverty was entirely down to your own inadequacy.
235 et al Personally, I think she’s stunning. But each to his own.
239. They are numbered, just as golf balls are.
You have to know the right place to look, of course …
Could the Disciples of Delingpole destroy US conservatism in the long-term? Perhaps the lad is doing the world a bit of good after all!
“This is a childish view of science, politics, and the world. And in fact, bad as “Climategate” is for the cause of mitigating climate change, it’s a far bigger disaster for the American conservative movement - worse, in its own way, than last year’s loss to Barack Obama.”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/cifamerica/2009/dec/11/republicans-climate-change
241 For me, the problem is that they look too much like p*rn stars.
247 “Republican Tory”
Sock Puppet alert.
Sorry what does that mean?
IHT - I rarely agree with Nick P on anything, but sort of on this.
If I inherit something, it wasn’t mine to begin with. On the other hand, any salary or money I earn is entirely (in principle) due to my own efforts.
So surely I’m entitled to retain a larger share of my own money, than my Dad’s? ie. as a general principle, IHT should be higher as a percentage than the median tax percentage on earned income.
tim, NPMP and all those of that ilk
The problem with 20th meritocracy replacing landed estates is that it leads to a poverty of building stock.
I would much prefer Sutton Park to remain in the hands of the Sheffields than for it to be pulled down and become a modern housing estate of neo-Georgian nastiness.
After SamCam’s ancestors have already provided the monarchy with Buckingham Palace (neé House) and North Lincolshire council with Normanby Hall.
Meritocracy should result in the poor getting richer not the rich poorer. No one wants Bungalow Britain.
250 No. The issue just isn’t a driver of many peoples’ votes.
It’s clear that the US Republicans are in much better shape than anyone would have expected a year ago, and, to be honest, in much better shape than they deserve to be.
235 - If he had come out and fessed up right away, the story would have disappeared rapidly over a week or so. The classic example of this is David Letterman, who had been fooling around during his engagement to his current wife. When a producer allegedly tried to blackmail him, he went public and the scandal was done in a week. Tiger’s instinctive desire to protect his image and keep his privacy has really hurt him. His PR people must be tearing their hair out because he won’t listen.
Letterman’s recent problems of course give him a unique aspect on the Tiger affair, which he has used to good effect.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PAMDf02yU6c
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2VkL98GhiHU&NR=1
251 “Porn Stars”??
how many “stars” are there?
“Porn worker” is a more accurate description.
Alistair Darling: Tensions with No 10 are inevitable … healthy or unhealthy
The Chancellor, Alistair Darling, tells Mary Riddell why he would never move next door.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/labour/6793082/Alistair-Darling-Tensions-with-No-10-are-inevitable-…-healthy-or-unhealthy.html
253 “Fat Steve”, when IHT is scrapped you will still be free to give tax voluntarily.
Nick Palmer,
You are looking at the beneficiary when you should look at the donor.
It’s the right of the guy who owns the house to leave his property to whom he chooses, just as you have the right to buy your wife a diamond ring.
Think about it. “Why should the fiancee wear a diamond just because she is putatively related to a man who can buy diamonds? Others can legitimately share in the diamond. We need an engagement ring tax to prevent the unmerited handing out of diamonds to women who have done nothing to deserve them.”
The principle you are denying is that a person can do as they like with their own post-tax money.
It does sound like an extraordinary position for a Labour MP in a marginal to espouse. That you don’t believe anybody should have the right to leave their houses to their kids.
I have to ask, do you have kids? I find it almost impossible to believe that anybody with children should take the view that their parents should be barred from giving them anything. The love of one’s children and the desire to provide for them is a primary motivator for innumerable people in terms of what they earn and save.
257 - Jenna Jameson is definitely a star.
So is Teresa May
251 - I wonder whether Tiger was better on the front nine or the back nine.
255. “and, to be honest, in much better shape than they deserve to be”
But to be fair, that statement could apply accurately to any year in the last ten. I presume the point the author is making is that the Republicans had finally woken up to the reality of climate change, which was after all to their own long-term benefit when America finally spots that it’s really happening and is not a dastardly left-wing conspiracy. Now all that good work has been undone and ultimately they’ll be the ones to suffer.
“Republican Conservative” is an Oxymoron.
It is a bit like Blair’s Catholacism.
The term Tory is an insult for Conservatives used by lefties.
You are certainly no Conservative.
263: “when America finally spots that it’s really happening and is not a dastardly left-wing conspiracy. ”
How many more times?
Climate change is a natural phenomenon; AGW is a scam.
254 - No one wants Bungalow Britain.
It would help Jeremy Hunt to work out who lives in his house, on the other hand it may make Bill Wiggin’s abode almost impossible for him to locate.
261 No. Porn Worker is more accurate.
Fluffer Class II.
NPMP, we were going to hang on to every penny and make our children work for it. Assuming average life expectancy (for us) they would inherit in their mid 50s. If they want anything earlier, they can pay (and work) for it themselves.
If our estate is going to be taxed, we’ll give it away now, not save for our old age. So, our children will not have to work hard to get somewhere in life.
Two more old people on the client state, with no savings and an incentive to rob the fruits of other people’s effort to pay for us.
Presumably that’s what you want, isn’t it?
251 He was always regarded as being one of the best bunker players on Tour
265. “How many more times?”
Hmm, I think I can spot where you’re going wrong there. The way to make global warming go away is to reduce carbon emissions, not to repeat “this isn’t happening!!!” 47,239 times.
268 Labour wants to make everyone poor.
Good thing Labour’s days are numbered.
259. Ken, that would be fine, If I could also decide how much of my pay should go in income tax and NI.
IHT can be argued about, but I don’t think it’s shocking as a concept - whereas the reality of the level of tax paid by low-paid working people, in proportion to their living costs, and the return they get- is shocking. If there is to be hot tax topic,I think it should be that.
The real biggy is the breakdown, at the lower end of the job market, of the option of working for a living to better yourself, vs opting out of work and maximising your benefits.
27o “The way to make global warming go away is to reduce carbon emissions, not to repeat “this isn’t happening!!!” 47,239 times.”
Clearly, your lack of comprehension skills is way beyond the modest efforts that any of us here can muster.
Why not just sacrifice a couple of virgins every day, that’d reduce carbon emissions over time.
261 After she loses Redditch, could Jacqui Smith have a career in adult movies?
250. Not that I care what US Conservatives think, but that article is hopeless: a pathetic “they have fallen into our cunning trap” routine.
“Obviously, though, a broad scientific consensus - its precise shape still shifting as scientists debate - cannot compared to church dogma, even if some scientists are behaving capriciously.”
Oh yes it can. Dogma is exactly what it is. Scence doesn’t need consensus, it just needs someone to get the right answer, once. And “capriciously” is delicious. The most important scientists in the business falsifying and destroying evidence is a bit more than “capricious”. It is intellectually, morally and legally fraud.
264 Republican Conservative” is an Oxymoron.
It is a bit like Blair’s Catholacism.
The term Tory is an insult for Conservatives used by lefties.
You are certainly no Conservative.
Utter rubbish. In case you haven’t realised there are millions of Conservatives around the world who do not live in or agree with a monarchy.
Also check your History out before you make stupid comments.
Heres a link to a nice simple “Janet and John” summary for you. It also has some pictures in case it is too deep for you.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservative_Party_(UK)#History
264 Surely Tory is a fairly neutral word for Conservative, many Conservatives use the word of themselves.
And I am sure there are ant-Monarchist Conservatives, I have two friends who are generally Tory voters (although Cammo is too left wing for them) who are died in the wool anti-monarchy.
As a Leveller I ought to be against the Monarchy myself, but I am afraid we would only put one of our little pipsqueak political oligarchs in the job (Cathy Ashton, anyone, or God forbid President Blair). My solution, if the monarchy is ever abolished, would be to leave the position of Head of State ostentatiously vacant, thus showing that as a Free People we have no need of one.
274. There’s a certain niche market, I believe, for films that feature frumpy housewife types.
274 - Dear God, I hope not.
272: “IHT can be argued about, but I don’t think it’s shocking as a concept - whereas the reality of the level of tax paid by low-paid working people, in proportion to their living costs, and the return they get- is shocking.”
Actually, for the low-income earner it’s not.
Free healthcare,, education for their children, insurance against unemployment, subsidised housing etc, etc.
271 - I think they are happy to enrich themselves
255 Largely driven by the Economy which is still on the canvas. The Democrats also tilted the bulk of their spending to kick in next year when there are the mid terms.
277. Ah John but are you a Leveller or a ’so-called Leveller’?
276
Perhaps you would feel more confortable with republican friends in the IRA or the Labour party.
Sock Puppet Alert.
273. “Clearly, your lack of comprehension skills is way beyond the modest efforts that any of us here can muster.”
Well, that sentence would certainly pose a challenge to the comprehension skills of most. Now I can see why rational climate science is proving so problematical for you.
The problem with 99.9999% of people who say that they are sure that global warming isn’t (or is) happening is that they are only saying this because someone they agree with politically says it.
There is no thought there, no nuance, just blind faith.
276 - Don’t take it too personally. According to Ken, David Cameron isn’t a conservative either
272: “IHT can be argued about, but I don’t think it’s shocking as a concept - whereas the reality of the level of tax paid by low-paid working people, in proportion to their living costs, and the return they get- is shocking.”
Actually, for the low-income earner it’s not.
Free healthcare,, education for their children, insurance against unemployment, subsidised housing etc, etc.
The real losers in our high tax, high-welfare provision society are the bulk of people in the middle income ranges.
The thousands we pay every year in income tax, NI, VAT, fuel duty etc, etc yield far less in return to us than if we could keep that money and invest in our own health, unemployment etc, etc plans.
252: Rep Tory - a sock puppet is someone pretending to espouse views different to those he really holds, in order to discredit them, and/or an existing poster agreeing with himself under another name. He’s accusing you of holding such extreme views (i.e. republicanism) as to be obviously a left-winger attempting to discredit the Conservatives.
I’ll leave it to you and him to debate!
250 “Could the Disciples of Delingpole destroy US conservatism in the long-term?”
I bet myself a choccy biscuit Palin’s deathstar of doom (aka facebook page) will win the climategate argument in the states and then by extension the argument will be won in the rest of the anglosphere leaving the nominally British branch of the EU political class as the sole believers.
(Believers in using the GWS as a vehicle for creating direct taxation for the EU).
Separate to the rights and wrongs of the global warming scam i think people who already have some religion are less likely to believe in the Green one whereas atheists with the faith gene are constantly looking for new messiahs of one kind or another.
276,277 I think that the Peerage should elect one of their number to be King/Queen.
280. That’s fine, but you can get all that without working. In fact, for the lowest paid X% of society, you can do much better for yourself by opting out of employment to simply work the benefit system. Having a continuous stream of kids helps.
That’s the problem.
286. “There is no thought there, no nuance, just blind faith.”
More like rigorous science on one side of the argument, and vested interest and prejudice on the other.
287 “Cameron isnt a conservative…”
Well, I think we can all agree on that.
277John Lilburne
Exactly and well said.
OGH What chances on a poll to find out the true Republican feelings in this country?
Especially interesting would be the support for Charles.
276 - Don’t worry, he thinks Cameron’s a liberal, adjust your need to reply accordingly.
293, very honest of a global warmist to say so
Was CRU rigorous?
In Morris Dancer’s Britain, I will establish a new scientific body, led by Reginald D. Hunter and James May.
289. NPMP retreats to lick his wounds from his views on IHT.
283 What’s a ’so-called Leveller’?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Lilburne
http://www.marxists.org/history/england/english-revolution/may-day.htm
288. Geoff H. 280 in my 292 should have been 288.
Kind of thing.
Morley and expenses (again)
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/mps-expenses/6790013/MPs-expenses-Elliot-Morley-claimed-6000-to-refurbish-London-home.html
295 - I think the true republican feelings in this country, will change once the Queen dies, and we are faced with King Charles or King George he is planning to call himself
288. Geoff H.
And rereading your post, I agree.
I was over hasty. I have lunched well.
294
Its very difficult today, (almost impossible) to find a Tory who won’t say of Ted Heath, ‘He wasn’t a Conservative’ I wonder if similar statemets will be made one day about Cameron: think they will!
266 tim
It would help Jeremy Hunt to work out who lives in his house
Redressing the errors of the 20th Century can be traumatic.
Lech Wałęsa was elected President of Poland and invited to spend a weekend at Windsor Castle on a state visit to Britain. On returning home he was asked by the Polish press what it felt like to be entertained so royally. He replied that the bed he slept in was so big that he stayed awake all night trying to find his wife.
I truly understand the problems these MPs face.
291. Blair would be elevated overnight in that case.
293. “More like rigorous science on one side of the argument, and vested interest and prejudice on the other.”
Which side is which?
293: “More like rigorous science on one side of the argument, and vested interest and prejudice on the other.”
So rigorous that its proponents need to silence critics, hide the data, rig the peer review system in their favour, caricature those who hold opposing views, fiddle the data, ignore or even flout Freedom of Information laws.
291. Which model are you thinking of - the old Witanagemot approach or the medieval/early modern Polish-style elected monarchy?
The former had some advantages I think - the latter wasn’t notably successful.
What an interesting thread.
Too late to attack Cable. The media framers have canonised him and only the the gods can take away what the gods have bestoyed. I don’t think that is likely because who will waste capital on knocking down a third party opposition spokesman but it could. perhaps 25%/30% chance because (a) it would have novelty value (b) the media likes knocking down people it has built up. (c) The mansion tax faisco has dented his aura of invincibility and bull markets are often about sentiment. We’ll see but if it happens it’ll be because it just happens not because another party wastes ammo on.
297. “In Morris Dancer’s Britain, I will establish a new scientific body, led by Reginald D. Hunter and James May.”
Could be dangerous. Reg showed dangerous signs of having a mind open to evidence (so clearly not one of life’s natural Coldists), whereas I suspect even May would be open to reason if you drag him away from the malign influence of Clarkson.
I’m quite amused by the concept of a Directly elected King or Queen.
289 NPMP and 287 TSE Thank you, now I at least understand! having seen the latest ramblings at 284 I will just ignore.
291 Perhaps, that is one old system. But the peerage system has been flooded by Labour types.
If you had such a system you would need to remove the Mandelsons, Draysons and Uddins.
I quite like the system we have now. The person most directly descended from King Alfred.
286. If you rank yourself in the top .00001%, your best bet would be to keep quiet about it. Think how awful if someone were to reply to your post suggesting that you are a patronising hoon the quality of whose posts here puts you well down the lowest quartile of posters. That would be terrible.
308. “So rigorous that its proponents need to silence critics, hide the data, rig the peer review system in their favour, caricature those who hold opposing views, fiddle the data, ignore or even flout Freedom of Information laws.”
Is that what they actually did, or rather what they appeared to do in a judiciously selected tiny fraction of the countless emails that were stolen by their entirely reputable opponents?
299. It’s in the link there master Lilburne, if you read it.
314 - Clearly not reading recent posts I see. I don’t think anyone here comes in that top whatever percentage it is, all anyone is doing is repeating what they have read or were told somewhere else.
Politics is faith, only that the political ‘gods’ are all too human and liable to lie at the drop of a hat (or expenses claim). Don’t trust any of them.
311, *yawns*
Coldist? Whilst nicer than saboteur, flat-earther or denier, it’s inaccurate. For me, at least. I don’t believe man is the primary contributor to a changing climate, nor even a secondary contributor (though the latter point may be true). I certainly don’t believe the planet is cooling significantly.
If the Middle Age warm period, and a similar era in Roman times, was not due to industrial activity, why must warming (assuming there is some) today be down to man?
It’s hubris. It’s the same arrogance that mocked heliocentrism, with a tinge of anti-capitalism and a big dollop of greeniness.
Too many variables to say for sure but I’d have thought Charles won’t be King long enough to do real damage. I also think the polling might be complex. An ebbing tide lowers all boats. The Monarchy its self may be less popular under Charles but our political class has just taken a 2 megaton blast and I doubt any referendum wanting to replace all the fancy costumes with a retired politican could muster more than 10% yes.
William has Diana’s star dust and will restore much good will.
310 Totally agree. The only course now for the tories is to ignore him. BTW How do you see the Lib Dem seat total now? If they are apparently doing so well in seats like Newport East they must be set fair.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/article6954047.ece
“Forget Fabio Capello. The man with the toughest job in Britain during 2010 is Robert Stheeman, chief executive of the Debt Management Office (DMO), who has the unenviable task of selling some £225 billion worth of gilts this financial year and a further £174 billion worth in 2010-11.”
“Ironically, one of the main reasons why a rout on the gilt market has failed to happen is George Osborne. The ratings agencies — Moody’s, Standard & Poor’s and Fitch — have so far refused to downgrade the UK’s credit rating solely on the assumption that an incoming Conservative administration will slash public spending far more aggressively than the Chancellor has to date.”
302 TSE My feelings exactly-it could be a tricky problem for DC if it happened in a recession. Thinking back to the Windsor Castle fire, Major (for once) dealt with the finacial issues in a recession quite well but throw in the Tax issues, the Civil list and a distinctly less popular King and it will not be an easy one to sort out. There will only be votes to loose.
321 Charles might even be a success in their terms. Edward VII proved surprisingly popular despite his mother’s predictions.
306 He’s not a Peer (yet). Unfortunately Lord Mandelbum is.
Actually I do have a sort of romantic attachment to the monarchy in a sort of Anglo-Saxon way which I would find difficult to describe. However I would get rid of all the stupid titles and bowing & scraping. An Englishman should stand before his Sovereign (as he should before his God) and should call him or her by regnal name.
IMO Charles should keep his given name. Having a “regnal name” is a stupid practice started by Victoria (whose first name was Alexandrina) and her descendants who thought that being King Albert was a bit, well, Belgian. Charles I was obviously a fuckwit, but Charles II is under-rated and Britain thrived under him.
Evening all you Rosslyn Park fans worldwide
Rosslyn Park 38 Southend 15
I see honours were even between Fulham and Burnley at Turf Moor at 1-1. Good point for Fulham there methinks.
310 The Witangemot. I would restrict the voting to hereditary, not, life, peers.
There are several British noble families who are at least as distinguished as the House of Guelph, and I would be happy to see them given a chance of becoming Monarch.
As an aside, what is a monarch? Raoul Castro, and Kim Jong Il are Monarchs, surely, even though they call themselves Presidents.
324 - I think the Queen is the one reason why the monarchy remains so popular.
I have an Australian friend, who is an ardent Republican, she says, the whole of the Republican movement in Australia, is pretty much resigned to the fact, Australia will not be a republic until Charles is King.
They think Prince William might have the stardust, to stop the republican movement in it’s tracks.
320 Man Made Global Warming is just a vehicle for socialist taxes and so called “redistribution of wealth”
case in point, Gordon Brown is handing over another 1.5 BILLION to foreigners.
320. ‘Coldist’ is a straightforward inversion of Melanie Phillips’ moronic term ‘warmist’, which incidentally is what I was called earlier on this thread without anyone checking to see if I felt it was accurate or ‘nice’ - so I take it I should have emitted a ‘yawn’ at that point as well?
Your point about the “Middle Ages” might carry a bit more weight if any climate scientists were actually denying that the climate can change - and has changed many times in the past - due to natural factors. The rather huge problem for you is that none of those natural factors can even come close to explaining what is happening to the climate at the moment.
I also think the Cable bubble is quite complicated. Superfically its about what an amazing Economics spokesperson he was and his uncanning prediction of everything that has happened but deconstruct it.
1. A chunck of it all is the media yanking the LD’s chain because until recently almost every appearance about Vince was subliminally about ” Why isn’t he Leader?”
2. Vince does anti politican very well despite not being an anti politican at all. The vince bubble is as much about him being too old and having no hair and looking like an archetypal grandad. The summoning of a popular politican who looks like he shouldn’t be allowed near a TV studio out of the ether is as much to do with expenses as the economy
3. Until very recently he was actually a rubbish party spokesman. His proffessorial air is what has worked. He’s the David Attenbourgh of 24 hour news in an economic apocalypse.
He’s a populariser and explainer. Of course given the Lib Dems media issues this all helps but I’m less surprised than many in the party at this not proving rocket fuel. There was a danger at one point that he was going to turn into President Bartlet. A figure so saintly as to be fantasy.
328, I concur that the Queen is a tremendous asset to the monarchy.
But, as has been said, when people look at politicians post-expenses and post-Iraq, I doubt they’ll want to axe the monarchy to have more politicians. I certainly hope so, anyway.
Long live the Queen!
318 Ah, a “leveller so-called” then. Certainly not a True Leveller or Digger.
The Coffee House Blog - Heated debate
Major bad language warning on the video below, but this incident in the Irish Parliament yesterday is too extraordinary not to post. Maybe the Tories will take notes for their new, more aggressive approach…
Hat-tip: Tim Montgomerie
330, why not?
Climate’s always changed. It’s changing now. No problem with that.
332 - She is, and long may she reign over us.
I had to laugh at that Labour candidate who said some deeply unpleasant things about the Queen recently. If you’re going to attack the monarchy, the most logical way isn’t to attack the most popular part of the Monarchy.
329. “Man Made Global Warming is just a vehicle for socialist taxes and so called “redistribution of wealth””
I don’t know why I ever wondered why our US Republican propagandist poster would feel quite so at home here…
316 That is really silly. The extracts are unambiguous as even Monbiot admits. You are no Monbiot and have no claim to be taken seriously if you dispute the passage which you quote.
“Is that what they actually did, or rather what they appeared to do in a judiciously selected tiny fraction of the countless emails that were stolen by their entirely reputable opponents?”
It is what they did, not “appeared to do”. No claim is made the emails are not genuine. Did they “judiciously select a tiny fraction?” Yes. If you are looking for evidence of wrongdoing, you judiciously select evidence of wrongdoing if you have any sense. Does it make any difference the emails were stolen? No. Why on earth should it? If I steal your telephone directory are the numbers in it any less trustworthy than those in my own copy? Does it matter that those who took the data were “less than trustworthy?” No. It would matter enormously if the authenticity of the data were in question, but it isn’t.
Your suggestion that it makes a diference that they only did all this a fraction of the time is mind boggling. It is like saying in defence of a murderer that the prosecution is harping on about the five minutes of his life spent committing murder and ignoring the years of his life he spent doing other stuff.
re 221 the entire earth receives the same amount of daylight, i.e. 6 months
334:
“whale oil beef hooked”
Let the spam filters get that one!!!
334.Oops, that comment was a quote from the Coffee House Blog.
249 - “Assume we created the perfect meritocracy. Imagine how you would feel at the bottom of such a society, where you knew that your relative poverty was entirely down to your own inadequacy.”
Although we don’t have a ‘perfect’ meritocracy, the overall movement of society has been in that direction over the past fifty or so years. Isn’t this then the reason why there is less ’social mobility’ now than there has been in the recent past - beacuse most people have now moved to their natural level on the meritocratic scale?
Ducks down below parapet!
335. Why not what? The question doesn’t make sense in relation to what I wrote.
“Climate’s always changed. It’s changing now. No problem with that.”
The thing is that it’s not just your planet to give up on. Other people in other parts of the world care about - and have more at stake in - the consequences of rapid, man-made global warming.
330. You mean the natural world cant account for a 0.75 degree increase over a hundred years?
I am not sure if it is arrogance or stupidity.
328 Interestingly, the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth was arguably the most democratic country in Europe at the time. Only the nobles had political rights - but there were 500,000 of them, which was a bigger proportion of the population than, say, in England.
A fascinating country which I always mean to find out more about… they also had some wonderful military uniforms, see http://www.keithrocco.com/store/images/lg_wingedhussars.jpg of google “Winged Hussar”.
343, I’m not giving up on the planet (indeed, Earth will be fine).
Other people also have more care and more riding on the effects of sin. Global warming enthusiasts have managed the impressive feat of making religious doorknockers seem like tolerant, private folk.
I don’t have your faith in global warming being man made.
338. “Your suggestion that it makes a difference that they only did all this a fraction of the time is mind boggling. It is like saying in defence of a murderer that the prosecution is harping on about the five minutes of his life spent committing murder and ignoring the years of his life he spent doing other stuff.”
Wow, what a…great analogy.
Is it a bit like the holocaust as well?
344 - So me driving a 4.4 litre car isn’t causing that much damage then?
347 - Godwin’s Law?
320. FGS, because historical climate changes can be explained by movements in the Earth’s orbit or changes in solar activity, neither of which are happening to sufficient effect today.
There are plenty of papers about it: scientists have done more than rub two sticks together in their research, no matter what the Glenn Becks of this world claim.
343. Im sorry but this just preposterous. There is no ‘rapid man made global warming’, there is some small evidence the man is influencing the environment, and there is a possibility we are accentuating natural patterns, and there is evidence, in laboratory conditions that increased CO2 creates a greenhouse gas. But no serious scientist (one who isnt trying to renew his government / ngo grant) really believes that we are in the grip of rapid man made global warming.
347 If there is nothing to hide, then the whole dataset should be made public. Then lots of different people can have a go at analysing it.
“Ironically, one of the main reasons why a rout on the gilt market has failed to happen is George Osborne.”
That’s the ironic thing about them trying to knock Osborne out of the game. If they succeeded they’d have caused a bigger problem for themselves.
Their only way out of their self-made trap was from 6 months to a year ago going all out to make a scapegoat of the banks. It would have added even more economic damage but given them a get out of jail free card with people who weren’t sure who was telling the truth. Too late now methinks.
350 - “scientists have done more than rub two sticks together in their research”
Agreed, those emails in Norfolk prove that they’ve been doing more than rubbing two sticks together
346. “I don’t have your faith in global warming being man made.”
Faith is your word, and it’s obvious why you use it. When I say that smoking causes cancer, is that faith? When I say that I think the Moon landings were not faked, is that faith?
No. Faith is a word applied to convictions that are based on something other than hard evidence. Therefore it applies to one side only in this debate, and that side isn’t mine.
343.
The thing is that it’s not just your money to play with. Other people in other parts of the world care about - and have more at stake in - the consequences of pissing trillions up against the wall in a futile attempt to counter something that’s an entirely natural change.
351. “but no serious scientist (one who isnt trying to renew his government / ngo grant) really believes that we are in the grip of rapid man made global warming.”
I think that’s a roundabout way of conceding that most scientists believe precisely that. I can only admire your brazenness!
347 “Is it a bit like the holocaust as well?”
So you say.
355, smoking contains carcinogens which increase the chances of cellular mutation which prevents contact inhibition and thus causes cancer.
It’s not analagous to climate change. The biggest greenhouse gas is water vapour from the oceans, then there’s methane from cows. If we actually gave a shit about the new religion we could just massacre most of our bovine beasts and it would be all but solved.
Could you explain to me how a side that has a negative belief can provide evidence? Reminds me of a conversation I had with a Christian wanting proof God didn’t exist. Only she didn’t want to waste a shitload of money and was rather politer about atheists.
355. “Hard Evidence” More likley to find such a thing in Jaquie Smiths Bluray collection, then in the global warming debate.
There isnt any hard evidence whatsoever that putting CO2 into the environment causes global warming, there is evidence in a laboratory system though, that in a closed system it creates a green house effect.
356. “a futile attempt to counter something that’s an entirely natural change.”
So that’ll be recitation number 47,240. Has all that wishing made the science go away yet?
Nope. Ah well, keep trying. Ya never know…
347. No you miss what I would have thought an unmissable point. You are trying to say that evidence of wrongdoing is less persuasive because it is selected from a mass of evidence most of which is not evidence of wrongdoing. That is a fallacy.
330. The rather huge problem for you is that none of those natural factors can even come close to explaining what is happening to the climate at the moment.
But the immensely distinguished climatologist James Trenberth seems to think that AGW cannot explain it either. Here is what he says:
The fact that we can not account for what is
happening in the climate system makes any consideration of geoengineering quite hopeless as
we will never be able to tell if it is successful or not! It is a travesty!
Kevin
Who to believe, Kevin or you? Here are his credentials:
He has published over 430 scientific articles or papers, including 45 books or book chapters, and over 185 refereed journal articles and has given many invited scientific talks as well as appearing in a number of television, radio programs and newspaper articles. He is listed among the top 20 authors in highest citations in all of geophysics.
What are yours?
359. Could you explain to me how a side that has a negative belief can provide evidence?
Wrong question, Morris Dancer. No negative has to be proved - all your side has to do is credibly demolish the masses of evidence in favour of global warming. So it’s actually easier for your side, but you still haven’t been able to do it.
And of course, there’s a very simple explanation for why you haven’t been able to do it.
I bought a copy of the Daily Mail today as part of hair shirt policy of reading outside the liberal bubble occassionally. I’d bought a pint of finest Old Rosie scrumpy to help numb the existential pain. I also told myself it was really about getting the 310 off Waitrose voucher so I could feel superior about shopping at a company owned by its workers with a Daily Mail discount but we all tell ourself lies. It was the £10 off.
I must say i was pleasently surprised but drank the cider anyway. A touching story about a gay soldier back from Afghanistan. Very sympathetci coverage even if they persuade him to pose on his pink Zac Efron duvet which Yellow Submarine would have vetoed had he been handling the young soldier.
The “Vicars Wife who used to be a stripper” story was quite sympathetic as well. I wonder if they swaped some editorial control for the posed picture of wife and hubby in dog collar. The Parishioner quoted was very sympathetic, a sort Turnip Intelligencia.
The obligatory picture of Nigella was in. Tick.
However the lacking “Hate” quotent was left to a fallen harpist who it was vaguely hinted deserved her self destruction having been gifted so much.
What is the world comming too if gay soldiers and stripping anglican vicars wives get better coverage in the Mail than a Blond Bomb shell harpist.
The most disconcerting thing about about it was the vague feeling that I might buy it again. Eventually. If there was a Waitrose offer.
Do conservative posters ever have this experience with a crafty copy of the Guardian?
256. The Republican party has traded short-term gain for serious long-term loss. A core votes strategy only just got them around the 50% barrier in 2000, and the tactic caused most of the new voters since then to lean heavily Democrat. (And the “getting more rightwing as you get older” effect is dramatically overstated - the vast majority of voters tend to have their views shaped in their first four years of political maturity and don’t change them much after that).
The current strategy for the GOP might get them up to the high 40s, but it won’t get them over the threshold. I expect any success them in the next ten years will be limited to congress as a check on Democratic presidents.
342 “beacuse most people have now moved to their natural level on the meritocratic scale?”
Some people are thick. There’s no arguing with that. But one of the things that’s happened in some of the rougher areas over the last 30+ years because of no discipline is schooling pretty much means five years of distilled violence and not a lot else.
364 see 322
351. A demonstrable untruth. In actuality, the vast majority of practicing scientists, both inside and outside the climatology sector believe it is happening.
363, is it not true that ice in the Antarctic is at almost record levels? Not evidence of warming, let alone man-made warming.
357. But they dont. Its the politicians, who take the legitimate warnings from many scientists who predict that we might see some very moderate increases over hundreds of years, and probably no increases in freak weather conditions, this gets translated into ‘climate chaos’ we are all doomed within twenty years.
The argument being, that it is a noble lie, if we are not lied to we wont take the situation seriously.
It’s the same way that you tell children that drugs are bad (m’okay), that smoking pot will give you mental illness, one shot of heroine will kill you, and you will have a stroke if you take ecstacy.
364: “Do conservative posters ever have this experience with a crafty copy of the Guardian?”
No.
Global warming might be a good thing, however it is caused. When I was a student the doomsayers obsessed about an oncoming ice age. Whichever way you play it cooling is way more worrying than warming. Perhaps what we really need in order to calm down about this is a breakthrough in physics making space travel a reality, then mankind can get on with the business of discovering and then exploiting new territory.
*goes back to watching Star Trek*
362. “What are yours?”
Nice try, Constan, but at this moment I’m arguing with you, so I’d be rather more interested in comparing our own respective credentials. As for the scientists who will back up our respective argument, you have an admittedly highly-impressive chap called Kevin. I have the massed ranks of the IPCC. So far, I seem to be winning handily on that score.
Very odd tw@tter on Muckguire’s feed,
“Never heard. Prob friend of Sarah”
Wonder if he meant to tw@tter it?
369. It is cherry-picking of evidence to choose the one part of the world least affected by the trend.
It is a combination of larger oceans in the Southern hemisphere having more capacity to absorb the heat, and the (now-closing) ozone-hole allowing some of the heat to escape into space.
Trenberth (I usually google names to see what they say and who they are) -
“I’m involved in 102 of the e-mails,” Trenberth said. “I don’t see anything embarrassing to me particularly. There are a few things that can be taken out of context, and they have been.”
That includes the line about a “lack of warming,” which Trenberth says was part of a longer message intended to highlight shortcomings in scientists’ understanding of recent temperature fluctuations.
“We’ve always had some problems with the observing system,” he said. “It’s obviously not as good as we would like, and that’s true of the temperature record, as well. What this is saying is we need better observations. What it’s not saying is that global warming is not here.”
Trenberth said it’s telling that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change found evidence of climate change to be “unequivocal” in its 2007 report. “The IPCC is actually a fairly conservative process,” he said. “It involves people from over 100 countries and different parts of the political spectrum to see what the best statements we can make about global climate change are. They are consensus statements, so by definition that means they are somewhat conservative.”"
Reading both sides is illuminating.
What most interests me at the moment, knowing that I don’t or can’t know the truth of the science, is the psychology behind the debate. It’s interesting to say the least.
http://www.nytimes.com/cwire/2009/11/24/24climatewire-stolen-e-mails-sharpen-a-brawl-between-clima-19517.html
373, you mean people who believe in climate change work for the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change?
Shocking.
Anyway, I must away. Fare thee well
This is off a Lib Dem site where they are looking to win Derby North.
Should you take it seriously? I probably wouldn’t if it didn’t chime so closely with our results in Southend West. We knocked on about a thousand doors from Thursday to Sunday. Our supporters seemed in good heart. Lots volunteered to deliver leaflets, which is always a good guide to morale. Labour supporters were hard to find. And the Conservatives were more likely to express admiration for Nick or for Vince (or Nigel Farage) than for their own leader. And it has been like that for months.
If this is true it might be time to hit back at the Lib Dems.
“Do conservative posters ever have this experience with a crafty copy of the Guardian?”
When i was active (Labour) i used to get the Sun for work and Guardian and Torygraph at home to get both sides of the story. If i ever got active again (different side) i’d probably do the same.
@@@
365 “The Republican party has traded short-term gain for serious long-term loss.”
I don’t think the Republican party is doing anything. It’s the tea partiers making all the running and that could just as easily lead to a third party splitting the Rep vote and helping the Dems.
373: “I have the massed ranks of the IPCC. So far, I seem to be winning handily on that score”
So that’s it? Might is right?
Funny that the current shenanigans are going on in Copenhagen. Just the spot to remember Hans Christian Andersen’s tale of the Emperor’s new clothes.
All those courtiers and nobles and it took an innocent child to point out the truth. No qualifications at all. What a wonder.
328. I think in 2010 it’s looking increasingly ludicrous that countries like Canada, New Zealand and Australia, independent from Britain for decades, have a non-dom (apologies for using the term!) Head of State. It might have been a bit more understandable had we jumped the way of close Commonweath co-operation instead of jumping into Europe (the biggest mistake we ever made, IMHO), but that’s the way it goes.
I doubt the arrangement will survive the death of the current Queen. At the moment it’s acceptable largely because she represents continuity and grew up in an age when large chunks of the world were coloured pink. She has overseen the transition to independence and thus is an important figurehead. Once she dies, all that goes.
That said, I’m a fierce supporter of the monarchy in Britain. I think people will be pleasantly surprised by Charles. The pomp, ceremony and mass-interest that will accompany the changeover will create enough public enthusiasm in the institution to drown any doubts there may be about the new monarch. And it’s likely he won’t reign long enough for the sheen to wear off completely. After that comes William, who is much more popular by default.
Nobody has yet to persuade me why I’d rather have a President there than someone prepared for the job (often for decades), understanding of the constitutional role and detached from the baying hordes in the Commons.
We could do without the hangers on, though. They’re the ones that do the most damage.
364. I enjoy parts of the Guardian, although I am very much a conservative of the progressive conservative tradition. I certainly find it more reasonable to read than the Telegraph, although not as good as the Times (as much as I hate Murdoch).
Ultimately, I now find most of the broadsheets lacking in deep analysis, which I now rely on the FT, the Times, blogs and journals like Foreign Affairs for.
364 Actually, quite often, I find the Guardian a good read. I’ll skip over Seamus Milne, and Moonbat, but I’ll read Polly, just to be provoked. It also has the best politics website, of the all the papers.
365 In this country, moving rightwards as you get older is well-attested. According to MORI, the Conservatives finished third among 18-34 year olds, in October 1974, yet now lead among that group (aged 53-69 today). Is it different in the US? Perhaps because the political centre of gravity is already to the Right of where it is in the UK?
I’ve sometimes thought that holding Congress is more important than holding the Presidency.
371. I sometimes read the Guardian. I rather like its format and it’s never a bad thing to hear from the other side now and again (however ludicrous).
That said, I would never pick up that rag-of-a-paper The Mirror.
I see from scanning previous threads that the Oborne article on Mandelson has been covered already so won’t bang on. But I take peter Oborne and the Mail resonably seriously and don’t believe anyone does articles on sources about Mandelson when Mandelson isn’t the source himself.
So what was it about? A shot across the bows? is that where all the “Brown overruled Darling” stories are comming from? It doesn’t look good if everyone is writing their alibis about the election strategy with 4 months still to go.
381 - One of the people who suprised me with his admiration and insistence on the Queen and monarchy continuing was the then Labour MP, Bernie Grant.
His argument was that the Commonwealth was one of the very few places were small countries from Africa, the West Indies et al could be heard on a global level.
And the Queen was the perfect person to bring all those diverse countries together.
I gave up the Telegraph when it went off message, but if I was going to buy a paper now, it would be the Times.
375 O/T But what powers do the central US parties have over State ones? Just asking as in the UK they have special measures to assert control and restructure entirely when there are serious issues. You’d have thought the NJ Democratic party to be a prime candidate for such powers now.
379. This is a fair point. It’s easy to think of US parties as having proper leadership structures, but the power relationships in the GOP are certainly bottom-up at the moment. However, the congressional GOP are stuck in a very difficult position, being damned whichever way they are go.
I suppose thats the just comeuppance of stoking up and indulging an angry base for the last decade.
368 ” In actuality, the vast majority of practicing scientists, both inside and outside the climatology sector believe it is happening.”
Translation. The vast majority of practising scientists believe that if other scientists, in areas they know nothing about, have followed the scientific method with an honest peer review then what they say is probably true.
Now they know the data has been rigged, the computer models have been rigged and the peer review process deliberately corrupted i’d imagine the tide among the vast majority of scientists will turn.
381 I’m ambivalent about the Monarchy in Australia, Canada, New Zealand. OTOH, it seems ludicrous to have a foreigner as Head of State. OTOH, it’s a way of helping people of British stock hang together.
What we ought to have done is just merge the UK, Canada, New Zealand, and Australia, into one country, when we had the opportunity. It would be, if not a Superpower, certainly a pretty formidable State.
373. Very bad point, actually, because Trenberth
“was a lead author of the 1995, 2001 and 2007 Scientific Assessment of Climate Change reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and shared the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize which went to the IPCC.”
So your best evidence against Trenberth speaking frankly and off the record is Trenberth speaking publicly and on the record. Which to believe? Difficult. Or Perhaps his views are at odds with the”massed ranks of the IPCC” which rather calls into question their “massed rank” unanimity.
383 The balance of power is dependent entirely on the personal popularity of the President. When there are weak Presidents as in the 1970’s Congress is powerful. But when the President is very popular he has far more power even over an opposition Congress. Reagan is a perfect example of this.
385. It is a very interesting article. Oborne likely could back up the story so assuming it’s correct the cabinet are divided on the economy, and it would seem the election strategy; and Mandelson has fallen out with Brown and really wanted the EU job. Bloody good news for the Tories all round.
388 From what I’ve read from Sea Shanty Irish, almost none.
For example, Southern State Democrats seem to bear almost no relation to their national party, and many of them vote Republican at national level.
“That includes the line about a “lack of warming,” which Trenberth says was part of a longer message intended to highlight shortcomings in scientists’ understanding of recent temperature fluctuations.
“We’ve always had some problems with the observing system,” he said. “It’s obviously not as good as we would like, and that’s true of the temperature record, as well. What this is saying is we need better observations. What it’s not saying is that global warming is not here.”
So to paraphrase:
We can’t measure any warming at the moment.
The fact that we can’t demonstrate warming is happening is down to the fact that our measuring systems are not good enough.
However, warming is definitely happening.
This is science? Seems more like theology to me.
It’s facinating how perceptions varying. I defected to the Telegraph for a few months over expenses and still pick one up once a week as quite like the lay out and Simon Heffer makes me laugh. I think the way it uses the space of being the last broadsheet is ballsy.
The Spectator I love/d but am begining to worry is going off the rails under Fraser Nelson.
I suppose my semi serious point is there seem some very loud voices around who are just desperate to be betrayed by Cameron. i’d always seen betrayalism as a left wing thing but I really do think UKIP will go places in a grim Cameron mid term.
Conservative posters do not need to buy the Guardian. They have got the BBC.
383. I think the effect in the UK has occurred mainly because the ideals of the Labour party for most of its postwar existence really were so out of touch with economic realities. Thus the natural move as people get older from ideals to pragmatics naturally aligned with a left to right movement. I suspect this will be much smaller in future, although a Lib Dem –> both major parties trend will probably exist as people age.
In the US both parties have had significant wins with young people. Reagan had a healthy margin - and his success & popularity has meant those reaching political maturity at that time have been a significant boost to the GOP for decades. Equally, LBJ’s success has meant his supporters have largely stayed with the Democrats, while Carter’s failure caused the reverse to happen.
If Obama has a successful presidency, then after what is considered a failed Bush one, the Democrats will reap rewards for years to come.
I am on the new hi-speed southeastern train, st pancras to rochester. It is quite unbelievably fast. When was the last time someone said that about a british train?
387 - I gave up the Telegraph when it went off message
What was the message supposed to be, The Book of Dave, The Gideon Bible?
397 It’s funny. I’m (now, I suppose) a Conservative/UKIP floating voter, but I really want Cameron to win next year, and I hope he succeeds as PM.
I have no time for the view of Heffer and the Chevalier de Fromage that a massive defeat will destroy the Conservatives, and thus bring on the Right wing revolution. The Telegraph is now an odd combination of UKIP fundamentalists and Labour who want to see the Conservatives destroyed for different reasons.
401 - I gave up on it, when it had potentially the story of the year, McBride’s smear.
But Andrew Porter tried to spike the story.
388. In short, it’s very weak - particularly in parts of the country where suspicion of the “Washington establishment” is highest.
However, that said I think the trend towards ideological conformity in both parties is allowing the need for consistent messaging to make parties stronger. It will be very interesting to see the outcome of the supposed WH plan to “nationalise” the midterms.
The biggest strength the central parties have are the influence of the presidency, when they have it, and also the congressional committees which can direct endorsements and funding towards certain candidates. However, there are so many other ways funding can emerge so this isn’t as strong as the UK.
Can I be the first to break ranks and say…
I f**king hate the monarchy, including Elizabeth Windsor.
I thank you! Now hurry up and let’s get on with Charles III, oh boy, what fun that will be
I think the last time I bought The Guardian was a couple of years back, when it was giving away the DVD of “My Life as a Dog”.
Rarely read the papers now. “The Times” when I do. I prefer to spend the time following up the links posted here.
I miss the days of the Insight Team. But they wound that down - and before the spread of the net, so we can’t get the blame there. I think they wound it down because it was not the done thing to undertake quality journalism when Tony was in power. Rather they got lazy and uncritical - and took the handouts from Campbell instead.
I wonder whether we will again see the rise of investigative journalism from the BBC if the Tories get back in power.
402
It used to represent the views of Conservative voters. It doesnt any more.
406 - You are banished to the tower (AKA Conhome) for such treasonous talk.
The problem with the Telegraph is not that it gives space to lefties but that it finds such fatuous and idiotic ones to write against the grain.
ie Mary Riddell and earlier Sion Simon (he of the ludicrous NS column)
And latterly Geoffrey Lean wittering on incessantly and wrong-headedly from Copenhagen.
391. I have wondered in the past whether the remnants of the Anglo parts of the Empire will eventually be incorporated in some way into the United States once the monarchy ends.
394 “Mandelson has fallen out with Brown and really wanted the EU job”
heh heh heh. McDoom may be rubbish at economics but he’s great at stitching up political rivals.
Macrory tweeting that 3 polls out tonight showing an average 12.5pct lead for Tories
404 - You prefer the output of the low life Coulson - You can’t beat a bit of bully.
407. “I wonder whether we will again see the rise of investigative journalism from the BBC if the Tories get back in power.”
Is the Pope Catholic?
ComRes coming up at 7.30pm. Others to follow
here it is
henrymacrory 3 polls tonight show Conservative lead averaging just under 12.5%. PBR has bombed. Class attack not resonating. More soon.
Good job the AGW science is settled, or there might be some discord at the summit
Copenhagen climate summit descends into row as 350 protesters arrested
Fears that the Copenhagen climate summit could degenerate into an undignified global squabbling match grew on Saturday night as poor nations accused their rich counterparts of forging a “backroom deal” at a secret dinner.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/copenhagen-climate-change-confe/6797265/Copenhagen-climate-summit-descends-into-row-as-350-protesters-arrested.html
Oh, wait…
414 - Nope, I’m more of a Times man these days.
406 I’m a staunch royalist- so off with his head
400. I’ve never heard anyone say that in my adult life.
That said I had a political thought today which I couldn’t find a terminus for. I’ve not been well recently and in a new area. Registering with a GP and Dentist was astonishinly easy with a quick google and a few phone calls. The premises were both clean, modern and accessible. The Doctor and GP were very good and as a lay person with no real choice I left with complete confidence is the advice and treatment plans. Despite considering myself well read on public policy I was genuinely surprised at what could be done in surgery with commputers/x ray etc and the amount of discretion and advice offered by the Pharmacy.
And the politics?
1. Its the first time in about 5 years i felt good about paying taxes. But I never hear anyone talk about this aspect of the NHS.
2. GP, Dentist and Pharamist all young, bright south east asain heritage with strong accents and IPS. Terrific and thank god for them. Couldn’t judge wether they were originally immigrants or not.
2. Both surgeries and the chemist shop overwhelmed with a myriadd of non European customers with almost everyone struggling with english and getting cranky with reception. The interesting racial tension was between East European, I think Polish customers who seemed to have a much more ” British” view of queuing, had better english and when it wasn’t no sense of entitlement of communicating in their native tounge.
I should come to a conclusion on this but don’t have one.
416 - Mike, do you know the others are?
413.Average Con lead 12.5% -sounds as though Labours PBR spin has toppled…
Wonder what Gabble and Tim are doing now this is breaking.
What will their spin line be?
Looks like a bit of swing forward!
The last ComRes had a 10% lead, so it’s fairly likely that these polls will all show an improvement for the Conservatives.
422. Psychological 40% for the Cons in all three will make it a good christmas….
423
I wonder if all the polls are about the same ?
Comres 41 24 21 according to Macrory
421 Any take on 322?
So it looks as though the polls will be all over the place with this comres one
According Macrory other polls show Tories over 40 but with lower leads…
Indie on Sunday/ComRes:C:41(+2) lab 24(-1) LD 21(+4). 2 more polls set to show Conservatives at 40/41 but with lower lead.
more from henry macrory
429 - 7% poll lead increase? Bloody brilliant PBR.
Oh I was just about to slouch off and reheat the remains of my beef cassorole that I put to much water in and the sauce isn’t quite right.
But now there is a poll watch ! and one with added tweeted conservative c**k tease !
Hurrah !
429. That means one of the polls is very very good for Labour, this will be the BBC ‘we dont do polls’ poll that they will all focus on.
Come on Maguire,Gabble ,Tim lets be having you.
Total lead over the 3 polls will be 37 points - ie average 12.33%.
So other 2 polls will average 10% lead.
Indie on Sunday/ComRes:C:41(+2) lab 24(-1) LD 21(+4) according to tweet.
The dates of each poll will be interesting………….
So the total lead was around 37% from all 3 polls.
Comres is 17% of that, so that’s 20% to be split over 2 polls.
So it’s going to be an erratic set of polls.
Comres - 17% lead.
Now where have we seen that before? Some polling outfit that everyone rubbished.
Ah, our very own ARS.
434 Crikey
411 I’d see the logic of it, if I were a (non-French) Canadian, Australian, or New Zealander. And as a Brit, I’d far prefer to be a citizen of the USA than the EU, although I’d still prefer self-government to either option.
ComRes very close to Angus Reid.
386 YS
This is what makes the next round of polls so important. If the Lab-Con gap ends the year at 17 - say 43-26 - and the first three months of 2010 see this gap slowly rise with the Lib Dems threatening Lab’s VI share, then the ligaments holding Labour together will snap.
Is somebody running a poll on what Macolm Tucker’s gonna do?
1:2 - Destroy the government in a revenge attack
Evens - Have his arse saved by sociopathic Scotch colleague Jamie
3:1 - Help Nicola Murray overthrow Tom
7:1 - Help the govt lose the election to Peter Mannion spectacularly
50:1 - Enlist the help of the Doctor in exposing Peter Mannion as an alien.
436 “That means one of the polls is very very good for Labour, this will be the BBC ‘we dont do polls’ poll that they will all focus on”
Even if it’s BPIX in the MoS?
Somehow I doubt it.
424 - “Conservatives need 15% lead to avoid hung parliament”
446
Talk about mistiming!
Still maintain you can’t get an adequate feel for the effect of the PBR until after tomorrow.
If the ComRes result is so large, it looks like one of the other firms will have a relatively good result for Labour.
YS.
‘Do conservative posters ever have this experience with a crafty copy of the Guardian?’
No. Your DM purchase was a naughty boy moment. A frishon of pleasure and a shiver of disgust.
The Guardian is a bossy hypocritical teacher moment.
new thread
Why did the poll info have to come at the time Ali Bastian is perfoming on SCD, it’s very hard to maintain a correct focus.
430. My apologies I did see that post and forgot to reply. First the caveats. I have no money on at the moment. Most of what I hear comes from candidates and I discount nearly all of that because of the widespead pandemic candidatitis. In addition I have no scottish knowledge.
Broadly my feeling of the party’s pulse is
- People genuinely feel the losses to the Tories can be limited
- I know that some Labour held constituiencies with 20% majorities , that met few of the classic targeting criteria, are getting extra external help because the hard canvas data suggests something weird is going on.
I’d say 80% of the people I talk to internally think that the later will compensate for the former and that the party will beat the current spread “predictions”.
I’m not sure those observations are much use at all from a betting point of view but there we are.
The madness of what we are doing to combat climate change from the Daily Mail.
1,700 lose their jobs and the firm gets £90m of tax payers money for cutting carbon…..
“Solicitor General Vera Baird, MP for Redcar, last night said it would be ‘unacceptable’ for Tata to profit from the credits.”
Yes unacceptable but why would they not do it if its legal under this Govt?
http://tinyurl.com/y8d77o6
374 - address in Canterbury?
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