Labour move up a bit in new PB Angus Reid poll
December 18th, 2009
CON 40% (40)
LAB 24% (23)
LD 20%(19)
OTHERS 15% (18)
And others decline a bit too
These are the figures just in from our latest survey where the fieldwork started on Wednesday and finished only this morning.
Importantly this survey started two days after that for last weekend’s polls by ICM and MORI finished - so it is more up to date. We are, of course, still waiting for the latter to appear.
Although Angus Reid has been showing Tory shares at about the same level as the other firms its Labour figures have been at the bottom of the range. A key element in this as we’ve discussed in the past couple of days has been the way it operates it past vote weighting calculation.
The reason the shares don’t add up to a hundred is because of rounding.
I’m travelling at the moment and will update this later in the afternoon.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
I think I’ll stick with ICM for betting purposes
Good to see others declining. That’s the only significant change really.
I told you I did my bit for the cause!
Still 16% ahead. Take that MORI.
Yes i think Angus Reid should stick to Canada.
If AR showed about a 11 or even 12 point Tory lead, that would be believable, but 16 while all the rest are showing between 6 and 10.
Nah.
Give it up Angus Reid, you’re definitely doing something rong.
FPT. 317. “Reaction time is a factor in this, so please pay attention. Now, answer as quickly as you can.”
327. The whole Mercerism / empathy thing got left out between book and film, which was inevitable, but a pity. Most punters found BR baffling enough as it was.
Total Recall, Blade Runner, Minority Report and pretty well everything else Philip K Dick wrote would not work as anything but sci-fi.
There is one short story about a guy who has nightmares and a steadily worsening phobia of heights. His shrink thinks it’s down to something that happened in his past, but it turns out he’s clairvoyant and that it’s caused by something in his future.
Essentially the same theme drives the plot of The White Hotel, written 25 years later by the dad of PB’s very own SeanT.
Star Wars could equally be remade as almost anything: western, war movie, swords ‘n’ sandals - anything. I think that’s why it was unsatisfactory. It didn’t feel novel.
I can sit through a lot of Trek, but the above is the reason I like the save-the-whale movie instalment the best. As well the fact that it was very funny.
This is another ‘little or no change’ poll from Angus Reid; they’ve been producing figures very similar to this since the start.
Whether the absolute level is right or not, it does seem to me that this steadyish-state set of results is more plausible than the bouncing-about of some of the other pollsters.
Will be good to finally have the GE so we can see from outturn how different methodologies match up.
Oh, and in case anyone needs the link:-
http://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/conference/2007/09/labour-majority-increase
So Lib-Dem’s are -1 Others are -3. But Labour only go +1 and the Conservatives are n/c. So, what happened to the other 3%? Are they on holiday? Christmas shopping? Ot just can’t be bothered?
Oh dear another poll not to the taste of the Labour astroturfers.
Almost certainly too good to be true. Sadly.
All those people attacking Angus Reid should at least wait until the general election to see which polling company is the closest. We know that the polls in this country have historically always tended to over-state Labour - Maybe, just maybe Angus have come up with a methodology that finally gets Labour an accurate share?
9 - Lib Dems are +1 so it is 1% that is missing, which as Mike says, is down to rounding
tim, it seems a bit foolish to discount a poll for betting purposes just because you don’t like the result. I look forward to hearing of your losses.
That will do - Happy New Year, Labour!
…remember, the worst poll for Labour is the one to go with.
9 - Rounding
i do not expect al jabeeba to cover this poll much as it does not agree with their message.
7 - Ted - and there’s the little matter of getting shot of this abhorrent government as well.
When are the tables out?
4,12 Harris were similarly criticised in the run up to 1992, yet proved to be the most accurate. However, only the GE will show which is correct.
Com Res produced similar figures, so they’re not as much out on a limb as is suggested. Indeed, they’re first two polls were producing similar figures to everyone else.
Do I believe opinion polls with two parties or three swapping 3-4% points of the poll every month? Often with no logical explanation
No.
Do I believe an opinion poll showing a 16% Tory lead. Seems unlikely to me.
I suspect the sample sizes need to increase due to the rise of Others AND the huge regional differences (eg Scotland vs SE England).
Opinion polls are as trustworthy as the politicians they report on.
18 Don’t have to shoot them Aaron
Just let them be gone, not forgotten, a warning to remember.
1
You’ve posted that before when the poll didn’t fit your narrative. Y
14 -If you think I’m wrong I’ll bet you £100 at evens that Labour poll above 25% at the election.
19. And by a weird process of inverted natural selection, Harris left the business while jokers like MORI stayed in.
4. ComRes had a Tory lead of 17% a few days ago.
20 increased sample sizes dont necessarily make a lot of difference.. We have been here before on this subject. I am sure there is someone who knows exactly how much difference, but its not a lot.
Big mouthing followed by willy-waving. I thought the schools broke up at lunchtime today?
Just noise, it’s basically the same.
Do we have an ETA for the now infamous forthcoming Mori poll?
Angus Reid matchs my impression of what’s going on under the surface but with the big caveat of not knowing for 100% certain what the “others” will do on the day.
@@@
What i would really love tomorrow is a picture on the front page of the Sun of McDoom and the Obamassiah holding hands in a Copenhagen snow storm with McDoom beaming and the Obamassiah looking like he wanted the ground to swallow him up and the headline “Global Warming?”.
Given their exposure to a new market, I am sure that ARS are EXTREMELY eager to get a valid result.
And I suspect they are right. There was nothing in the PBR to move votes towards Labour. Most people have already made up their minds on this Govt. - and how they will react to it in March/May.
Could we please have the breakdown of Others? I understand why the tabs cut out that vital detail (is it neo-Nazis? Kippers? Greens? Nats?), but not PB.
4 Ding Dang All the rest are showing between 6 and 10.
They’re not. The Conservative leads shown in all December polls so far (including this one) are:
11 13 18 17 17 11 9 9 16
Still quite odd that Angus Reid haven’t been getting any movement in the Labour position while everybody else has. We discussed this a bit the other day, but it doesn’t look like there’s been much change in the number of past Labour ARS have been finding. So the weighting might account for the absolute level of support they’re seeing, but not for the difference in the trend.
Maybe it’s the “which party would you support” wording, which is different to the normal “which party would you vote for” type questions. That would sort-of make sense if you think of the move to Labour in the last couple of months as anti-Tory, rather than pro-Labour.
‘Tory MP Julie Kirkbride to stand down at election’
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/dec/18/julie-kirkbride-mp-stand-down
31
SNP = 2% (-1)
PC = 1% (NC)
UKIP = 6% (-1)
BNP = 3% (-1)
Green = 3% (NC)
32 Correction - Typo! Should be:
11 13 8 17 17 11 9 9 16
Mike you should have hung onto this until saturday - because the Mori poll is bound to have a 6% or less gap on sunday and the contrast would have stopped all the media madness through out the day IMO
I hope ARS can become part of the BPC, hopefully (though it be a slender hope I know) the media won’t just ignore the yawning chasm of a lead the Tories have and cherrypick the narrowest poll leads.
33 Edmund - I suspect that at least some of the apparent move towards Labour is just noise, especially since the latest ICM poll seems to have picked up an atypical sample (see Mike’s recent post).
2.45pm:
With no agreement in sight we are facing extra time this weekend, according to the campaign group Hogenhagen. Its adviser Bill Becker is said to be certain that negotiations will run into tomorrow at least.
Tick, tick tick.
37 ARS have applied. I am sure Mike said so.
So, the Tories are static while Lib + Lab both gain. This goes against the narrative that Labour are only gaining votes from the Lib Dems. It will be interesting to see which of the Others has taken the hit.
Rather than argue about the accuracy or Angus Reid, it is probably more productive to look at how their series is trending.
23: Are you going to build a margin of error adjustment into that bet, allowing for labour to be at least 27%?
37 - just going through the formalities of payment and the like. When we publish the full tabs (hopefully later this evening) they will have all te required info as discussed with the BPC.
Tag-team-tim lacking in confidence in Labour doing better than evens for more than 25%.
Perhaps because that would be a good score for Labour in a real election. Now what was it in the locals and the Euros, just remind me current tag-team duty bot?
Simpson and Brown, purveyors of pooter.
45, super
I’ll take those Angus Reid numbers. The stability of the Angus Reid polls is very notable.
ARS’s application to join the BPC is in the capable hands of Andrew Cooper, the council’s secretary and boss of Populus
48, and contrasts sharply with some other pollsters.
The decline of Others is the only thing that’s beyond noise, I think, in the poll. It will be interesting to see whether the anger over expenses holds during the GE and people really back minnow parties when choosing a government.
48 Ditto.
“20.Do I believe opinion polls with two parties or three swapping 3-4% points of the poll every month? Often with no logical explanation No.”
I know people who you couldn’t guess who they’ll vote for from one day to the next. They used to be solid fixed in place Labour and now they’re floating voters for the first time in their lives and they’re erratic as ****.
I imagine they’ll settle down eventually although as none of the mainstream parties represent their interests or even *want* to represent their interests my guess is they’ll eventually settle down with the naughty party or possibly Ukip if Ukip decide what they’re about.
4. It is not the case that “all the rest are showing between 6 and 10″. The most recent BPIX has 11% and ComRes has 17%.
This time last year ComRes twice gave the Conservatives just a 1% point lead and all the polls had the lead in single figures. The lead remained in single figures until mid January but by May it was up to the high teens with some giving a 22% lead. Fingers crossed it will be the same again, especially if Mike’s theory that there is always a swing towards the Conservatives as a General Election approaches holds true.
Isn’t Populus the one who doesn’t follow the rules on publishing promptly.
Sounds a bit New Labour to me, do what I say not what I do?
23. So if they poll under 25%, you’ll pay out £100 against a £100 stake, whereas PP will pay out £400 against the same stake.
tim = the public sector in action. Put in a quid, get out 25p and the other 75p sticks to some public sector employee’s fingers.
23 Bet with a complete stranger of unknown provenance over the internet? I don’t think so, tim.
44 - Take it or leave it, I gear my betting to ICM, with an eye on YouGov and Populus.
Anyone basing theirs on ComRes or Ars would see my offer as resonable.
But looking at the seats markets no one is basing their betting on Comres or ARS
I’m on with PP for Labour to poll between 26 and 27.9% at the GE.
Richard Navabi @40: “I suspect that at least some of the apparent move towards Labour is just noise…”
I think there’s an element of that in that that MORI poll, which was probably at the pro-Labour end of its margin of error, got people looking for an increase in the Labour vote, which duly happened, but isn’t that enormous. But there’s no doubt that there’s a definite trend, which pretty much everyone except AR are getting.
See RodCrosby’s graph:
http://www.titanictown.plus.com/hp/kalman.png
(Or just read up the columns at ukpollingreport if you suspect Rod’s somehow got his thumb on the scale…)
Two new markets up today at Ladbrokes.
Number of Plaid Cymru Seats
0-3 3/1
4-5 Evs
6 or more 2/1
Number of Independent Seats
How many seats will be won by candidates not representing Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats, SNP or PC. Speaker and N.I. MPs also do not count.
0-2 6/4
3-5 6/4
6 or more 5/2
55 - There is no such market at Paddy Power.
30- Obama might want the ground to swallow him up regardless of whether Brown wants to hold his hand. He has enough problems back home without having to worry about Copenhagen, given that his own party is tearing itself apart over healthcare reform (never mind the economy, jobs, out-of-control spending, etc.). Here’s a great example of how the Obama loyalists are now mercilessly trying to throw liberal idealists under the bus (and the reverse is happening too):
http://www.freedomslighthouse.com/2009/12/msnbcs-chris-matthews-slams-left-as-not.html
[features prominent MSNBC talker Chris Matthews calling the lefty netroots "troublemakers," "not regular grown-up Democrats," and that they "get their giggles sitting in the back seat and bitching"]
52
I know people who you couldn’t guess who they’ll vote for from one day to the next.
So the chances are on polling day, they will not vote..and did not vote before.
So should be filtered out of most polls…
OT Eng 329-8 Graham Swann is 64 no
62:”get their giggles sitting in the back seat and bitching”
seeing as thats all they were doing through the Bush years, no change from normal from them.
This AR poll sticks to its previous view. Very consistent. Bad news for Labour but their MPs will not pay much attention to it as they are as Martin Kettle put it in the Guardian today, in a mood of self-deception.
It would be useful to see the results to 1 decimal place because of the relatively high level in Others and the fact that a hung parliament is a more likely result than any GE since 1992. Has the gap between C and Lab closed by 1%, 0.5% or 1.4%?
There was a post or article arguing against doing this in the past, anyone have a link or precis the argument against?
59 - This is exactly what I’m picking up as well - http://www.forecastuk.org.uk/?p=67
64. decent effort by the tail there
What % of the vote will Labour get at the next General Election?
30% or more 13/8
28% to 29.9% 7/2
26% to 27.9% 7/2
24% to 25.9% 4/1
22% to 23.9% 4/1
20% to 21.9% 15/2
Under 20% 8/1
http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/uk-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=110391
The thing about Angus Reid is, unless my memory has totally failed me, Mike said right at the start that he believed that traditional pollsters overstated Labours position, so they were trying to frame the questions to correct this.
If Angus Reid are now showing lower Labour numbers than the others then it suggests that this has been successful.
The question we need to ask ourselves is whether we believe that traditional pollsters did actually understate Labour. If so then Angus Reid is potentially useful. If not, it may still be useful, as long as you take this into account.
Ignoring a poll totally, despite having access to the data, seems shortsighted to me, unless you are totally incapable of analysing information and drawing your own conclusions.
Whetever the lead, the trends are always interesting. When other polls are going up and down, seemingly at random, the stability of Angus Reid is reassuring.
Like all polls, treat with caution, but analyse the data, not your prejudices.
59 Edmund - I agree there is strong evidence of a reduction in the lead over the last few weeks, but what I was saying is that we should be cautious about focusing on what appear to be implausibly large movements (such as MORI’s), especially when there doesn’t seem to be a big political driver for any such movement.
Clearly one needs to make a judgement based on fragmentary evidence; my guesstimate is that the lead has dropped by a couple of points from around 12-14 a few weeks ago to around 10-12 now. Within MOE, the movement in the Angus Reid results is consistent with that (although of course their view of the absolute lead is higher).
I think the ARS sceptics are overlooking what might or might not be going on in the ground war. This is obviously highly variable beween one place and another.
Recent local government byelections show increasing support for Lib Dems and Labour, remember. This poll fits in with that.
63 - I usually only finally make my mind up in the polling booth. I have to rack my brains to remember how I voted a couple of times.
35 Thank goodness.
I was really cross at her attempts to get back in. I don’t often venure onto the comments section of Toryhome but this situation merited it.
72: Risky using local council elections. The tories are at a high water mark with regards to seats for them. Also the motivations for them are completely different. you can’t vote out Brown in a local council election.
73, I’ve only been unsure once (granted, I’ve only vote 4-5 times). I think I went for the independent, but was torn between him and the Tory (2005 GE). All other times I made up my mind and stuck with it.
58…i have been convinced for many a month that the NL core vote is 25% and at the GE that is the maximum that they will poll.
73
I have made up my mind weeks before. And I could tell you how I voted in each GE since the 1960s..
(bu then I AM a boring old fart
Anthony Wells throws in his two penn’orth
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/2384?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+PollingReport+%28UK+Polling+Report%29
Sky reporting that 2010 being dropped from any draft agreement iro when a legallybinging agreement must be signed.
79: Whats the point of a Yougov poll over Xmas? They shouldn’t even bother.
lol
legally binding 
Now suppose, as it has been suggested, there’s YouGov in tomorrow’s DT and it’s in line with the last one or, perhaps, even trending to ARS.
Where does that leave Mori with an out-of-date poll potentially in Sunday’s paper?
It should leave them with egg all over their faces, though we can suppose all that will be lost inn the froth.
61 No, but there’s a 26 to 27.9 and a 24 to 25.9% market, both at 4/1 (or they were yesterday, can’t look today as betting sites blocked from work).
It’s a reasonable inference that a sub-25% market would be at 4/1 also, as both the bets available one tick to either side are 4/1.
This, or something like it, is the right method to value your offer to lay under 25% at evens.
81, a pollster’s got to make money. If a paper wants to commission it…
Thats odd, BBC website front page, “Shadow Cabinet to pay back £24k”, Minister Sion Simon to pay back £20k nowhere to be seen.
For those taking a pop at ComRes, I understood their fluctuating weighting issue had been resolved and it now deals with its weighting in much the same way as ICM.
Why has no one on here yet blamed Gordo for the snow? Must be the wrong kind of ice on the Torybot’s coaxial cables?
80 LTL December 18th, 2009 at 3:17 pm “Sky reporting that 2010 being dropped from any draft agreement iro when a legally binding agreement must be signed.”
So is there now 415 days left to save the world and not 50?
Labour 16 points behind - no sign of Gabble, Tim, Susanna, Jon, Ben H. Go on drown…… your sorrows.
83 It would be lost in the froth.
Ask Harris.
63 They *did* vote before but stopped after 1997 or after 2001 or after 2005 - that is the critical point imo.
Apart from that i’d increasingly agree that staying home is looking more likely as revenge voting against Labour is pretty pointless when the alternatives look more or less identical.
83. It doesn’t matter how dreadful their polls are provided they have a receptive audience for them. This far away from a GE, what objective measure is there of how accurate they are?
72 “ARS sceptics”? Surely you mean ARS deniers?
86
Not at all.
The BBC is biased.
GIN.
How’s the mouth?
Back on the cricket - Jimmy gone but 100 run partnership
86, unconfirmed rumours reach me that a certain state broadcaster is in cahoots with a leftwing group of individuals in a perverse internet pron website featuring humiliation such as arse-kissing, Brown-nosing and begging for treats like a dog.
Taxpayers are reported to be disgusted and nauseated.
89 - also beng called the Copenhagen Accord instead of Agreement. Long grass anyone ? Oh and the 50 days ran out about 10 days ago.
Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg has bowed to pressure from his party and kept its manifesto pledge to scrap university tuition fees.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8421092.stm
Be interesting to see how that adds up.
65- The only difference is that people like Chris Matthews praised the lefty netroots to the skies during the Bush presidency. It is only now, as the Obama loyalists’ and the netroots’ interests are diverging, that Matthews (and others like him) are seeing what a bunch of clowns the netroots are.
I see that Guido has picked up on the blogsphere/Holyrood/MSM spat up here.
This row just took another twist with this news.
Herald - Outrage at SNP plans for public notice ads
“Opposition parties at Holyrood have attacked the SNP Government’s plans to take advertising away from newspapers.
Finance Secretary John Swinney wants local councils to use online advertising for public notices, claiming it will help them save money.
His proposals were criticised by Labour, the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats who all urged him to think again.
Councils spend around £6 million a year advertising notices as diverse as temporary road closures to compulsory purchase orders, which they are legally required to do.
Pauline McNeill, Labour’s culture spokesperson, said the plans would take “vital revenue” away from the newspaper industry at a time when it was facing significant challenges.
She said: “The Scottish Government must rethink these proposals to avoid irreversibly damaging local papers which are important employers in communities across Scotland and a vital part of the media spectrum.
“If the SNP is as committed to supporting the newspaper industry, as it says it is, then it must not go through with these damaging plans.”
Tory spokesman Ted Brocklebank said the plan was “as untimely as it is unwelcome” and he appealed for it to be postponed.
He said: “Many people, especially the elderly, still look naturally to newspapers for public notices. The Government’s own Scottish household survey found that nine out of 10 pensioners, and nearly half of single parents and single adults, as well as 77% of couples of non-pensionable age have no access to the internet.””
“A Scotland Office source accused the SNP of “trying to strangle papers which are the lifeblood of democracy”. He said: “The SNP are sore losers. The minute they get a bad press they want to punish newspapers.”
Mr Swinney insisted switching to online would provide “more cost effective public information”. The Government’s consultation on the proposals runs until February 12.”
After following the unfolding row up here, the timing of this consultation period leaves me feeling very uncomfortable indeed. I think that will rebound very badly on the SNP to be honest. They have had some negative press recently due on a variety of issues including Megrahi, education and health in particular. And now this very explosive row between the MSM and certain individuals in the SNP blogshere.
88. It would br entirely illogical to blame Gordon for the snow.
I like snow.
94 - Those hostile to this pollster must surely be “ARS-spankers”?
100, it doesn’t matter they will never be in the position to enact the legislation to bring it in.
103. “British snow for British winters”
103
Agree Sally
Snow is fresh, white and virginal.
60 Number of Plaid Cymru Seats market from Ladbrokes.
Will Plaid suffer from getting into bed with Labour as other parties have in the past?
The Conservatives seem to be gaining in Wales in recent elections such as the Euros.
103, snow is also cheerily welcomed by children, unlike Grim Gordon stalking the school hallways with an eye for human shields.
100 Oracle - Are there any LibDem policies which haven’t been the subject of one or more U-turns in the past six months?
It does all seem to be happening in Copenhagen, UN asking leaders to stay on, an accord rather than a treaty/agreement and Press Trust of India say India & China have walked out.
Who is therte who could Save the Conference?
106 The snow.. which started in America..
110, the EU referendum promise. That was over six months ago.
110 - I believe that they have remained consistently supportive of proportional representation.
110 - Vince Cable got himself in all sorts of trouble of the Uni fees one on QT a while back. He didn’t seem to know if he was coming or going.
of the -> over
Did Liam Fox have a phantom mortgage?
112. I thought it statrted in East Anglia?!?
106 I think you’ll find there is no restriction on snow coming in from the EU.
I await to see if Gordon Brown is left snow bound in Copenhagen. Be hilarious if it stops him returning to the UK this week.
Re: Clegg’s new 6 yr policy for the 12-16 year olds not yet at university …… in the recent ICM poll the LDs had dropped to under 10% of that group of voters. No surprise.
Slogan for students “Vote Lib Dem so that your taxes can give a lessen the future burden on 12 yr olds”?
111
Save th Conference?
Superman?
Batman?
Nope.
Link says it all..
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gNIVpMXHqlk
59. Edmund, I have finally got the automated Samplemiser working!
1. Enter the polling data in the Excel spreadsheet
2. Macro to optionally interpolate [missing days and combine same-day polls]
3. Macro to fire up Samplemiser in IE, populate form with data and set various switches, and submit.
4. Automatically Copy Perl output back to excel, removing summary statistics, leaving neat columnised data.
114 But even there we have heard the occasional “wouldn’t be a deal breaker” and suggestions that AV might be accepted.
103. Sally I would disagree. It is noticeable that the snow has arrived when our ‘Great’ leader is out of the country. Such a lack of hot air clearly could be responsible. Indeed perhaps this is an early symptom of a new phenomena (or the temporary removal of it) - Brownal Warming!
In which case it is yet another good reason to have Brown removed from the country as it could solve our Global Warming problems.
16% lead?
Labour are doomed, DOOMED at the next election!
Gordon Brown = Neil Kinnock!
62 Yeah, they’ll be at each other like rats in a sack because they built their hopes up too high.
“Vote Lib Dem and have higher taxes but you will feel glad about 12 yr olds”?
Such levity is wrong when the South East is suffering from the white hell. Didn’t you see the news this morning which showed all three lanes of the M25 were damp ?
Great fun - BBC intv lost in translation
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/tayside_and_central/8420559.stm
Peter Ould December 18th, 2009 at 3:08 pm “59 - This is exactly what I’m picking up as well - http://www.forecastuk.org.uk/?”
Peter I do think that a forecast of 26 for the Lib Dems is courageous. Betting markets are in the 50s.
But maybe I need to reflect on those ICM Euro LD anomalies.
129, in fairness, the south east is always in a state of suffering, not least from being suspiciously close to France.
117 tim, I would be very careful indeed about writing stuff like that unless of course you have any evidence…
102. ChristinaD
Ha ha ha.
Bye bye Unionist dead-tree press. You will not be missed.
Now, when FM Dave gets in and cuts the Guardian’s revenue stream from public sector advertising, I wonder whose side Christina will be on? Hmmmmmmmm………
With all these flakes and drizzle will BAA have to close every airport and Brown will have to stay away for December?
125 Your logic is compelling. However, followed to its conclusion, we need a space canon.
134 - I’m all in favour of the SNP’s plans on this point. Now we have the internet, we should be taking full advantage of the economies it offers.
106.
” The snow.. which started in America..”
I am, though, reliably informed by the weatherwoman daughter of a Lib Dem peer that this snow originated in the EC and came over here from the east with no restriction whatsoever on its movement. Furthermore, the government has no statistics whatsoever about the amount of snow which leaves the UK, meaning that the people of this country have no idea whatsoever as to how much net snow migration there has been! Until that happens, I shall continue to argue for snow quotas although I accept that a certain unspecified degree of snow is good for the economy.
133 - The radio are running atory that he’s paying back mortgage payments.
Does anyone know why?
131 - I’m happy to expect an increase in that figure when we get nearer to the election and their profile went up. If everybody went out today and voted however, I’m not so sure, especially in the South West and Scotland where the Lib Dem vote is especially weak currently.
127- It’s fun writing a bunch of checks while on an electoral shopping spree, but not so much fun when they don’t clear the bank and people expect to be paid.
138 That’s so realistic its [almost] not funny!
Surely a government which legislates to halve the government debt should have no problem introducing a Bill in Parliament to stop it snowing at inconvenient times?
139. Ring him up and ask him. I’m sure he won’t hesitate to call you back.
139.
“The radio are running atory”
Is that akin to running amok only more dangerous? Or dangerous political bias among independent broadcasters?
143 I think you’ll find the nice white stuff is as a result of Labour investment and the stuff which makes roads dangerous came about as a result of the Thatcher Govt.
145 Should that be, ‘the radio are ruining atory’?
BBC?
136. My assumption was that Morris D had already reserved Brown’s place at the top of the pile of projectiles for the Space Cannon post election. So if that is true all is in good order…..
130 Plato
It’s just like some of the political interviewers we have up here!
yawn
we are all getting bored: we need a good joke session or summat to liven us up.
I’ll start with wine and then gin I think…
131 - Also, compare my Euro 2009 Lib Dem prediction (http://www.forecastuk.org.uk/?m=200906) to the final result (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/bsp/hi/elections/euro/09/html/ukregion_999999.stm).
130 Plato Most interviewers here only speak “Labour”.
147 - Yes Ms Coulson.
134.Stuart, are you comparing the job advertising in the Guardian with what is proposed here? Did you even read the article?
Having been following Scottish politics very closely, suddenly the SNP are proposing to do this at the worst time for the whole Scottish newspaper industry. This doesn’t just effect the SNP’s favourite paper the Scotsman, it effects those like my local paper which is widely read and relied upon by those that are not linked to the Internet. And with a planned consultation period that runs to February next year, neatly just before a GE looming from March onwards. It stinks, but then its the kind of aggressive and negative reaction I would expect right now, glad you find it so amusing.
150 For madasafish
Royal Mail Recall
The Royal Mail has issued a stamp with a picture of the Prime Minister of Great Britain … Gordon Brown.
The stamp was not sticking to envelopes.
This enraged the Prime Minister, who demanded a full investigation.
After a month of testing and spending of £4.1million, a special commission presented the following findings:
1. The stamp is in perfect order.
2. There is nothing wrong with the adhesive.
3. People are spitting on the wrong side of the stamp.
150. The entire country switched off from politics days ago.
132. I was thinking. Did a sizeable proportion of us southerners start dropping our H’s because of that proximity to France?
137.antifrank, read the article and realise that it will cut off many people who are not internet users. There are predominantly more elderly people up my way that rely on their local paper for news of this kind. The timing of this move is more a shot across the bows of the Scottish MSM, and if the current government did this right now just before a GE it would not be seen as such a positive economic move, but more political.
157, possibly. It certainly could explain why the first thoughts of the softy southern media is to surrender to the Weather God whenever we have half an inch of snow.
157 - No, the Brummies stole them from us, which is why they always spell words with a “haitch”.
tim, I thought you had grasped how to use Google? or at least one of the tim’s had, saying that’s how you/they could come up with these slurs, sorry, stories about any Tory name that came up.
if you go to http://www.google you will find a search box. If you put your query in that box then press return through the wonders of the internet technology Google will list stories which refer to your search.
Had you done this for Liam Fox you might have found that back in October Dr Fox explained he had been paid twice for a claim for mortgage interest and was paying it back. Old news but the BBC and yourself seem to have the memories of goldfish.
156 And the Mail’s headline rather proves its on ‘holiday’ mode.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/index.html
161 - Over £7000 worth?
158 - There is such a thing as doing the right thing for the wrong reasons. If we were to wait until the oldies were to get ready for a change, it would never happen. If the country can switch over to digital tv from analogue, we can make this change too.
161 ted that would never be a consideration when there was a first class smear on offer.
163, gosh! That’s a little over half of what Brown repaid!
from beeb..
Shadow cabinet to repay £24,782
MPs in the House of Commons
MPs are being ordered to repay wrongly claimed expenses
The Conservatives have revealed how much money the shadow cabinet must pay back in expenses following Sir Thomas Legg’s inquiry.
The 28 senior Tories must repay a total of £24,782.
Now we know GB was in for £12k so.. Labout must have a hea start np ?
New revelations include defence spokesman Liam Fox, who must repay £7,984 in mortgage interest, repairs and council tax.
The Conservatives claim to have “taken the lead on expenses transparency” by publishing the list.
162 SallyC that was an expensive O!
64 - any relation to Donald Swann?
167 - If you don’t se a difference between retrospective rule changes and breaking the rules at the time then there’s nothing to discuss.
tim is changing his tune. first it was a phantom mortgage query, now its the amount. make up your mind which smear it is tim. You’ve been very careless recently, thats three mistakes in under 24 hours..
the sentence - Now we know GB was in for £12k so.. Labout must have a head start no ? should have been at the end.. I think will give up posting on this laptop. The space bar does some funny things.
164.antifrank, where do propose that some of our elderly in area’s like mine find the extra income right now to fund the internet on top of everything else right now?
Well Mike with AR in the race next time it looks like the Golden Rule is going to get a severe workout.
I suspect that it is going to prove rather more robust than Gordon Borwn’s version.
168. Elsewhere on the Mail website, I see Tim visited Auschwitz early this morning!
Obama’s not staying at copenhagen, he’s off to Hawaii to enjoy it whilst it still exists.
175 - Thats a joke right?
171 - The Brow payback was a restrospective rule change, as the Bernard Jenkin £63k is.
Huntand Simon broke the rules, different matter.
171. For a man so careful about research, it seems odd that this was hard to find…
http://page.politicshome.com/uk/article/4638/tories_publish_legg_requests_to_shadow_cabinet_for_repayments.html
177, is that Sion Simon, the Labour MP and legendary New Statesman contributor? I think I missed your posts about him repaying money.
Not sure if anyone has posted but GM to drop Saab, being wound down as no buyer found. That’s a real shame.
176: Actually nope, from the guardian.
‘3.51pm:
Obama is holding another impromptu meeting, this time with Gordon Brown and the leaders of Australia, France, Germany and Japan, according to AP.
He is supposed to be leaving for a holiday in Hawaii later today’
Flying to Hawaii via Copenhagen…interesting route. Not really limiting his carbon footprint there.
The reason the Fox figure is of interest is that he fought long and hard against Legg’s demands. I’m told that the Shadow Defence Sec increased his mortgage in order to pay for redecorations. He felt this was a legitimate use of taxpayers’ money as it would cost less than if he had charged directly for the improvements.
Fox made clear to Legg that he felt that as the Fees Office encouraged and approved the spending, to retrospectively rule it out of order was a form of “double jeopardy”.
Yet today, CCHQ say that the Shadow Cabinet will pay back all the money “in full”. It looks as though David Cameron has told his colleagues that even though this is rough justice, they cannot refuse the payback demands.
On a day when Julie Kirkbride appears to have been told by CCHQ to give up her bid to stay on as an MP, it also shows a certain ruthlessness at the top.
http://waugh.standard.co.uk/2009/12/liam-fox-and-the-final-legg-of-the-exes-affair.html
177. But you were talking about Liam Fox, you didn’t say anything about Simon and Hunt.
Well Mike with AR in the running for next time, the Golden Rule is going to get a severe workout.
I am confident it will prove to be more robust than Gordon Brown’s version
I bet this one gets through because I sent it on the mobile, so why didn’t 174?
South Africa: 418 & 9-1 (4.0 overs)
England: 356 (104.0 overs)
England were 3/1 before the start?
163. http://waugh.standard.co.uk/2009/12/liam-fox-and-the-final-legg-of-the-exes-affair.html
175
lol
182, good. A leader should have ruthlessness on a par with Francis Urquhart.
re tim, I have always scoffed at the various theories about tim being multiple “bot” individuals. I still believe that he is an unemployed loner living on benefits in his mothers spare bedroom. But looking back over his posts today they are unusually error strewn. He must have walked to ASDA for some cut price wife beater or there really are multiple posters using the tim name.
181 - Thats just nuts! He flys to Europe to get his award, then doesn’t stop as first planned. Then only appears at this conference on the last day, and then going to fly to right back on himself to get to Hawaii.
190: He wants the frequent flyer miles.
Or just to get away from Michelle and the kids…can’t blame him.
181 using a 747 to fly one guy and a few advisers anywhere isn’t particularly green is it? Still at least we were saved from Blairjet One.
Those who were betting on Cheltenham as a nailed on Tory gain at the GE may be surprised to hear of a defection to the Lib Dems in that town.
http://www.thisisgloucestershire.co.uk/gloucestershireheadlines/Cheltenham-councillor-defects-Lib-Dems/article-1619273-detail/article.html
I hear rumours of trouble too with their PPC. All of that plus Lib Dem incumbancy may well make Martin Horwood very hard to shift.
182 - Thank you, your previous link was pointless as it just gave the totals.
So Fox didn’t break the rules then, he remortgaged for decorating which was within the rules?
86 - so the entire shadow cabinet paying back only 4K less than Sion Simon on his own.
Totals for all ARS Polls, in order, most recent at the end:
tory: 40 - 38 - 39 - 40 - 40
Lab: 23 - 24 - 22 - 23 - 24
LD - 20 - 20 - 21 - 19 - 20
Other - 17 - 18 - 18 - 18 - 15
Remarkably consistent, though I think they are overstating others by about 3% and understating Labour about the same.
Labour getting ready for a defeat.
Lib Dems would opt for pact with LabourBuzz up!
Digg it
The Guardian, Friday 18 December 2009 Article history John Harris (A Lib-Lab pact: deep down they know it makes sense, 16 December) makes serious points about the prospects of co-operation between the Labour party and the Liberal Democrats following an election. Constitutionally Gordon Brown will remain prime minister until he finds himself unable to form a government. If the Labour party does not have a majority, he is bound to invite Nick Clegg for talks before resigning. The success or otherwise of these discussions depend upon what he is prepared to offer.
I have been a member of the Liberals/Liberal Democrats for more than 50 years and I know very few members in the country or in the Lords who look forward to a Cameron government. We will fight independently for every seat but, after the election, a package which led to the dignified departure of Mr Brown, the installation of Vince Cable as chancellor, and a commitment to the early introduction of a proportional system of voting could well form the basis for an agreement.
195 - Its only a partial list.
Jeremy Hunt is shown as paying back nothing.
To be fair to MP’s, which goes against the grain a bit, a lot of what they are being asked to repay are retrospective changes. If they brokes explicit rules in place at the time then there is no excuse IMO. Ignorance of said rules is also no defence.
180 - I’m gutted.
Some may wonder how Cameron’s Conservatives have managed to throwaway the certainty of victory at the next GE?
It is clearly a complex issue of causes leading to effects combining with general political ignorance on the part of Cameron’s advisers!
Taking the 1st rule of politics: An opposition party must never be seen or heard to be break difficult promises to voters before gaining political.
However, breaking difficult promises will be viewed in the following ways:
a) Political party is unscrupulous and cannot be trusted to govern.
b) Political party is lazy and will do nothing worthwhile in government.
c) Political party does not have any work ethic and want soft policies.
Even, if these thoughts are only realised by 10% of voters in a tight election or one were the voting system favours the incumbent it will be fatal to any OP hoping to gain a GE victory.
Secondly, human beings lie and cheat a lot to gain prospects and property. A Political Party’s will be expected to be lying and cheating by a sceptical electorate. Therefore, voters will expect some promises to be broken in government. Woe betides an Opposition party breaking political promises before entering government (excludes Economics were reverse rule applies: woes betide a political party being dishonest about money).
Putting this all together leads to one place. Cameron’s decision to break his party promise of Lisbon Treaty Referendum severely damaged his parties credibility with enough voters to cast the next GE into uncertain of outcome.
He and the Conservatives have damaged their creditability with this rather complacent, lazy and opportunistic policy u-turn! Stories about the Government have enjoyed a degree of traction and believability that they should have lacked without the OP’s misjudgement
Wonder how many Saab dealerships there are in the UK?
Just popping back. Delighted to see the gritters got to work promptly and the journey into Bromley was very easy for the Job Centre. I suspect today will not have done the retailers any favours.
I see ARS are still consistent in terms of a larger gap but also track the same slight increase in Labour support. Tories static on 40. I’m glad we have another pollster and look forward to seeing which is correct.
According to the reports from R5L, the Copenhagen talks are really struggling now. I look forward to seeing the spin on all of this…
Gerald Warner not impressed by the goings on in Copenhagen
Copenhagen: a historic week of farce
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/geraldwarner/100020279/copenhagen-climate-summit-most-important-paper-in-the-world-is-a-glorified-un-press-release/
200 here’s the story
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/engineering/article6961723.ece
Here comes the saviour of the world,
Live:Draft climate deal emerges as UN chief asks leaders to stay
1616 Good news for those delegates who have had enough of the chicken or hoummous sandwiches which are the staple fare at the Bella Centre. The UN has formally denied asking world leaders to extend their stay in Copenhagen because of a deadlock, which means that Gordon Brown could be making snowmen in the garden of No 10 tomorrow morning.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/environment/copenhagen/article6961367.ece
174 :”168. Elsewhere on the Mail website, I see Tim visited Auschwitz early this morning!”
No. That was Rod Crosby.
Another irrelevant rogue poll courtesy of the Smithson diddle machine …
Ref Cheltenham
I think you will find that they are not too worried about her leaving. She was looking for a position in the Council that they would not offer her, so she left to join the Lib Dems.
I bet she will not stand for reselection, because she knows she will lose.
190- So it looks like Copenhagen will be a net negative for the environment: no agreement to mitigate emissions but plenty of emissions created in the wasted effort.
“About 3,000 people are employed at Saab’s 87 UK dealerships and 100 at its British headquarters.”
Not a good Xmas for these guys and girls.
197 “the installation of Vince Cable as chancellor,”
Would be a total farce if this silly man ever got his hands on real power. A died-in-the-wool socialist, he would kill wealth creation at a stroke. Saint vince my arse - the guy is nothing more than a chancer.
I would rather have Darling than Cable.
201. Thinker. Cameron’s policy to hold a referendum on the Lisbon ConTreaty was only about holding a referendum on an unratified treaty. That is a fact - also see Hague’s speech to Conference on 2 Oct 2007. The perception that a promise was broken is fostered by people like yourself who are either ignorant of the facts or are willfully distorting the facts. However, I agree that a false perception has arisen which is damaging, with your help.
203 According to the reports from R5L, the Copenhagen talks are really struggling now. I look forward to seeing the spin on all of this…
I would not be surprised if the ‘talks are struggling’ is the spin and in a couple of days time a back from the brink deal to save the world will be announced and what heroes are political leaders will be
Iain, I pointed this out two days ago. Do keep up.
Unite’s PR operation has not been great.
Iain Martin at his WSJ blog - BA Strike: Where Is Charlie Whelan?
4.36pm:
Lars has another update from the Danish media. According Berlingske Tidende the talks will have to be wrapped up in the next two hours. “It’s everybody against China behind closed doors,” the newspaper writes
China v the world….my money’s on China.
177
Oh dear tim It doesnt alter the fact that you were trying to smear Fox, You have previous over Fox…
216 – Tut tut Tim, don’t you know hounding the Fox is illegal ?
216: He has previous over all Tories.
215 - who would have guessed that China would not want outsiders snooping inside their contry.
Charlie Whelan tw@tter,
“On gatwick express praying my flight to Inverness is not cancelled. Why do we manage in highlands with snow but can’t cope down here?”
Think he uses BA?
216 - All true though, remember the £5k PA phone bills he claimed were as a result of his troop visits?
220 - he’s probably off home to check his animal traps.
Borders to close all stores on Tuesday. Administrators says no deal could be done.
221 All true tim, Where is your evidence ??
I was in the shops today and it will have been a disaster for retailers. They were just totally dead compared to what you would expect this close to Xmas.
100 - Par for the course Lib Dem policy… Drop the commitment to scrap fees, but not upset the students who will be voting in 2010 by phasing it leading to 2015.
Will create around a £500 million hole I think(?), so will be interesting to hear specifically where they are getting that money from… not that it matters in terms of ever forming a government, but for credibility purposes.
There’s a cartoon youtube video about Lib Dems deciding on policy, I don’t have the URL to hand - but it sums up what I’m trying to say.
193. Nice bit of recycled spin there. Has anyone else noticed how in every Lib held seat which is a Tory target a) the local Tory party/council is in disarray b) the local Tory candidate is problematic c) the Lib Dem incumbent is amazingly popular.
If labour’s true incompetence were known, these figures would be very different. The EU and labour are running a campaign to hide the pain until after an election. An election which will be heavily funded by The EU Socialist masters.
Why is Charlie off to Scotland, Spurs are playing at Blackburn?
Charlie Whelan tw@tter,
“On gatwick express praying my flight to Inverness is not cancelled. Why do we manage in highlands with snow but can’t cope down here?”
Think he uses BA?
by Oracle December 18th, 2009 at 4:45 pm
Your answer Charlie
Richard Guest looks out of his office window in Inverness and notes that there is snow in the air.
Mr Guest sympathises with politicians in cities such as London: “We frequently get bad weather so it is worth investing in plant and salt. They must decide whether to buy a new gritter or, say, hire a dozen home helps.
“And heavy traffic is a big problem for them when it snows, whereas our roads are free-flowing.”
But he does sense that people in Scotland are “quite amused” when they see that London and surrounding counties have ground to a halt after a relatively small flurry of snow.
So, does he have any advice to offer? “Yes, move north. We’ve got things sorted - and we have a better lifestyle.”
226 - I take it youre betting on c30 gains then?
More rumours of Copenhagen talks going to go into tomorrow, but
“it’s unlikely that Barack Obama, who was only planning to spend a few hours on the ground, will be ringing around for a hotel.”
He really doesn’t seem very committed to this does he.
231: clearly he’s not the messiah, he’s a very naughty boy.
Saving the planet or saving face?
…What we have [draft treaty], we’re told, doesn’t contain a commitment to a legally-binding treaty, doesn’t endorse an explicit temperature target, doesn’t have a target date for finalising a deal, and doesn’t any more aim for emission curbs to be verifiable…
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/richardblack/2009/12/cop15_saving_the_planet_or_saving_face.html
234
Sounds good to me.
234 - in other words, let’s all agree to do something, sometime.
This is GENIUS!!
http://www.economist.com/world/britain/displaystory.cfm?story_id=15111272
The Beeb picks up on this several hours after pb.com
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/8420774.stm
The crusties aren’t happy,
Greenpeace has expressed its disgust at the draft Copenhagen accord currently doing the rounds. Its climate campaigner Joss Garman said:
This latest draft is so weak as to be meaningless. It’s more like a G8 communique than the legally binding agreement we need. It doesn’t even include a timeline to give it legal standing or an explicit temperature target. It’s hard to imagine our leaders will try to present this document to the world and keep a straight face.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/blog/2009/dec/18/copenhagen-climate-change-summit-liveblog
234
Anyone but ANYONE who thinks they can forecast temperature years in advance is deluded. The Met Office can’t get the summer right..
Anyone but ANYONE who commits to achieving a given WORLD temperature is quiet frankly an ignorant idiot.
All it needs is a huge volcanic eruption or a big meteor or a random event and you are several degrees C out.
Canute tried it. he failed.
It shows that anyone who seriously wanted that agreement is seriously loony and should be locked up. If they are in charge of a country, watch out.
I speak purely a s a physicist on that issue..( 20 years ago when I did physics and geology the idea that anyone would commit to such an agreement would qualify one for a safe ward in a mental home.
I blame Mrs Thatcher. Care in the Community has allowed dangerous mentally unstable people to pretend to be normal and act as politicians..
( and I am being serious. Anyone who signs up to such an agreement needs to be locked up as a danger to humanity..You cannot oppose the laws of physics.)
237.
- “Exeunt BALLS and GORDON, head bowed, to a visiting professorship at MIT”
MIT and their ilk are not gonna touch Gordon with a shitty stick. He is damaged goods. Badly, badly damaged.
Another couple of 16% Tory poll leads in Jan 2010 and Dave will have sealed the deal and Brown will be stuck with a May GE date.
This is a very good poll for the Tories still at 40% and loads of truly awful news in the pipeline for Labour starting with the VAT increase on 1 January which puts about another 2.3p on each litre of petrol! That’s small beer, however, to the further 10p per litre increase required in the budget…… beer, did someone mention beer …. 6p a pint tax increase would be my guess. That’s before we start talking about a 2p-3p increase in the basic rate of income tax and a standard VAT rate of at least 20%.
Happy days are here again, all thanks to Gordon’s profligacy.
Hmm… I wonder whether property prices will be back on the skids again before the GE …… probably, imho.
234. Last night I was watching a BBC programme about climate change hosted by Iain Stewart where he was looking at some polar ice-cores with a specialist working on them, and the latter said there was a switch from a cold snap at the tail-end of the Ice Age (known as the Younger Dryas) to a much hotter period - a switch which took only a couple of years.
So rapid climate change has happened in the past, but obviously could not have been down to mankind (unless early man built power stations or drove cars!).
238. MM - “The Beeb picks up on this several hours after pb.com”
Sign of the times.
153 - so speaks tim mcbride.
Nearly £5m has been paid in bonuses to staff at a funding body criticised for the “catastrophic mismanagement” of a college re-building scheme in England.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/education/8420556.stm
“There will be no rewards for failure”
221 Oracle the article quoted at 230 does also point out Highlands council have 118 snow ploughs. Still if Global Warming delivers any more winters like last and this Boris and South East Councils may think of buying some.
From what I hear from friends in Yorkshire the response there isn’t much better than in the South.
Not a flake in the South West though. just freezing cold.
For John R and other members of the PB Tartan Army Fanclub:
‘Lost in translation’ interview becomes web hit
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/scotland/tayside_and_central/8420559.stm
247 - I wasn’t commenting on the snow, rather just a sarky comment about Charlie Unite Whelan using the plane to get home every week.
247. Two significant snowfalls in the south in less than 11 months.
he European Parliament has approved a 122.9bn euro (£110bn) EU budget for 2010 - nearly half of which is to go to agriculture and natural resources.
It is a 6% increase on the 2009 budget, which was worth 116bn euros.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/8418275.stm
Are the accountants going to sign off the budgets one of these days?
The UK’s net contribution to the EU budget will rise by almost 60% to 7.2bn euros (£6.4bn) next year,
252: “The UK’s net contribution to the EU budget will rise by almost 60% to 7.2bn euros (£6.4bn) next year,”
Time to out away, the wallet, cheque book and credit card and just say, “No”.
Surely the BBC’s R1 aren’t playing dirty over the Xmas #1?
“Another blow for Joe is that his single has only made it onto the station’s (R1) C-list, meaning it is not getting huge airplay.”
While the plug the s##t out of the RATM tune.
252: “The UK’s net contribution to the EU budget will rise by almost 60% to 7.2bn euros (£6.4bn) next year,”
Time to put away the wallet, cheque book and credit card and just say, “No”.
189 - gordon can be ruthless too.
He was ruthless in selling our gold.
He was certainly ruthless to Tony Blair and anyone else he saw as a threat
he has ruthlessly indebted not just us but our children.
in other ways he is a dithering shambles
strange man….
Sounds like there is going to have to be some serious spinning if the likes of Gordo wants to be seen to have saved the world AGAIN,
Tim Jones climate policy officer from World Development Movement, joins the chorus of disgust.
This summit has been in complete disarray from start to finish, and now appears to be culminating in a shameful and monumental failure that will condemn millions of people around the world to untold suffering. The leaders of rich countries have refused to lead and instead sought to bribe and bully developing nations to sign up to the equivalent of a death warrant. The best outcome now is no deal. Leaders of rich countries should go home and adopt new year resolutions to become low carbon economies and pay their climate debt. Then we may have a chance of a properly just and effective agreement in 2010.
252 I’m surprised there isn’t a Unite jet….
I didnt know Lord Ashcroft had shares in Watford FC. What are the odds on him saving the club>?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8421345.stm
UK diplomatic sources confirmed there had been a major setback after China took huge offence at remarks by President Obama over the need to independently monitor every country carbon emissions.
259 - Don’t the Tories need a major PR boost in Watford?
The news is flying in this afternoon,
London’s role as a leading financial hub will be “damaged” by the new bonus tax, Barclays chief John Varley has told the BBC.
Mr Varley is the first senior British banker to attack the one-off 50% tax on large bonuses for bankers recently announced by the government…
The Barclays chief executive also criticised Labour for not ensuring a “predictable tax environment”.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8421312.stm
248. Hilarious. WTF was that interviewer saying? I couldn’t understand a word of his impenetrable regional accent.
252. Given how badly the £ has crapped out thanks to Broon, the sterling impact of that rise is a lot more than 60%, I’d think.
154
You are remarkably poorly informed Christine.
The on line portal for Local Government in Scotland is a COSLA proposal - it has been under development for at least four years and was started under the last administration.
Of course the old press will squeal like scalded cats but what would you rather rather cut for efficiency savings - education, social work etc?
The opportunism of the other parties knows no bounds - they jump when asked by their pals in the old press to oppose something that they origonally proposed!
255 so with Gordon promising at least £500m a year for third world climate change funding and £2.4bn additional EU contribution there isn’t much left from the NI increase is there?
264 - And who’s decision was it to change payment from Sterling to Euros?
257 a shameful and monumental failure that will condemn millions of people around the world to untold suffering.
A bit of hyperbole by the ecofascist, there.
AGW unravelling will certainly bugger the AGW industry, but there aren’t millions of them and neither will it be a shameful outcome.
It’ll actually be rather funny.
267 - erm let me see, is he a world saviour ?
234 - so, how does that fit in with the Brown line of “50 days to save the world”?
Always thought that was a strange line to take from the man who “leads” a govenrment accused of not really doing enough on matters green (low hanging fruit and all that)
must be just another announcement from the man who promised an end to spin.
‘A survey by GfK NOP for the European Commission has revealed a fall in consumer confidence for December.
It was the second consecutive month that morale was low - the last time confidence fell for two consecutive months was in July 2008.
The consumer confidence index fell from -17 in November to -19 in December - after the index hit its highest reading in almost two years in October.
Meanwhile, consumers’ expectations for the next six months dropped by 9 points and confidence in the outlook for personal finances over the next 12 months fell 2 points.
However, on a positive note, the measurement of the climate for major purchases grew by 3 points.
Commenting on the figures, Nick Moon, managing director of GfK NOP Social Research, said: “After a dramatic increase in the index from August to October the index has now fallen back for two months in a row, and another month of falls could see all of the gains since August disappear.” ‘
I’m beginning to suspect that the September to November period might actually have been the ’sweet spot’ for the economy. We should still get marginal growth during quarter 4 but only because it is the time of maximum stimulus before the VAT rise and the end of the car scrappage and stamp duty schemes.
The first months of next year are going to be dredful and will have particularly bad unemployment and inflation data which will ruin any ‘recession over’ talk.
260, haha. The Chinese are capable of silky smooth diplomacy, but if getting their way means the rest of the world being upset they won’t give a shit. And good for them for that.
Sad that the democratically elected leader of Britain is less patriotic than a Communist leader in China.
Reminds me, Hu is the president?
265. ex-pat - “The opportunism of the other parties knows no bounds - they jump when asked by their pals in the old press to oppose something that they originally proposed!”
Indeed.
There is a very long list of things the Unionists blame on the SNP which were Unionist initiatives.
Same in local govt: eg. Labour f*** up local councils for years and then when they lose power blame tons of Labour f*** ups on the incoming administration. Eg. Aberdeen City Council. I noted that NPMP was doing the same thing as regards Notts last week.
Labour are still blaming tons of things on the last Tory govt.
Such is politics I’m afraid.
Oh F*ck!
Gordon Brown is developing a plan B, if all else fails he told reporters
263: Try this then, classic Dundonian soap opera….
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xar7Q2PpyIA
‘Oil tops $73 on Iran-Iraq tension, U.S. cold snap’
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE5B30OK20091218
I wonder how long Gordon’s “swingback” will last if oil starts to approach $100?
I think the position today on Fees from the Lib Dems is the least worst way forward for the party as every one gets one third of a pound of flesh. Clegg has watered down the current policy, the student votes lobby within the party gets to keep a pledge of sorts and the deficit hawks get some numbers to waive about saying its all vaguely affordable because of the phasing.
In terms of coms and long term strategy its all the most enormous cock up but I’m not sure how many people will notice. It doesn’t really add up in terms of narrative. We’ve signed up to austerity and “savage cuts” apart from this small special group which oddly we’ll be defending or indeed adding entitlements to.
basically we’ve got the timming wrong on trying to drop the policy ( he should have known he didn’t have the capital to pull it off ) and got the timing wrong on the U turn because we are feather bedding one group just as we saying everything has to be on the table.
But I don’t think many people will notice.
274 - Cheque book out……
http://cgi.ebay.co.uk/the-cheque-that-Gordon-Brown-bounced_W0QQitemZ160387638210QQcmdZViewItemQQptZLH_DefaultDomain_3?hash=item2557d923c2
274, he’ll achieve climate emissions cuts by shutting down the whole UK economy?
274, why do I get a sinking feelng reading that ?
@270: more and more, I’m beginning to suspect that spin and smear as the first response to everything were not so much the characteristic of Blair but of the machine behind him - the dark heart of New Labour was always Gordon Brown. Now we get to see it fully exposed, and it’s pretty rancid.
Don’t get me wrong though, Blair was and remains a complete s***.
MUST SAVE THE WORLD, MUST SAVE THE WORLD…..
http://cache2.asset-cache.net/xc/91267435.jpg?v=1&c=IWSAsset&k=2&d=77BFBA49EF878921CC759DF4EBAC47D0FC4128583EFB0DEF0DB8EED929EA339ECCAEEF8195783CD8E30A760B0D811297
Mr Brown, Mr Brown, everybody has gone home now,
YOU ARE WRONG, I AM RIGHT, I AM THE INTERNATIONAL STATESMAN OF THE YEAR….
282 - link broken
257- And to ensure that farce devolves into pure folly, Obama is apologetically chasing after the Chinese premier in much the same way that Brown chased Obama through the UN kitchen, after the Chinese were “offended” by Obama’s calls for actual verification of compliance with climate treaty obligations:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/environment/copenhagen/article6961367.ece
283 - http://www.life.com/image/91267445
R5L Drive are padding. Apparently Copenhagen has gone into total media silence. All looking very odd…
It is going to be interesting to see how the MSM react when finally the leaders agree to some sort of fudge, either today or tomorrow. Will Gordo get the kind of headlines he dreams about?
278. That is CLASSIC!!!!!
That could be some payback for the damage he’s done to our finances.
Copenhagen shows the shallowness of most people’s belief in the dire warnings of Climate Change. If you believe then it’s a disaster, there should be riots across the world, Governments should fall. But it really doesn’t matter politically does it? Few votes will change because its failed.
Obama hasn’t the backing of the Senate unless China both cuts and allows verification, China wants to grow emissions but claim its cutting as emissions growth is slower than GDP growth but doesn’t want this doubtful arithmetic checked. Rest of the world unable to act unless those two reach agreement.
This man needs to pay back more than the Shadow Cabinet but will refuse to do so.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/8419572.stm
I wonder what the Cabinet of Labour troughers has had to repay and still has to repay. Could it be even more than Simon the Pieman? Oh, yes, quite a lot more I should think.
232 Agreed, Obama didn’t sound very committed in his Copenhagen speech today. More like the headmaster of a minor public school telling off the spotty lower fourth form.
re 56 EdP this site doesn’t have many welchers. tim for all hist annoying habits is one who I would definitely trust to pay up.
Has this been posted?
Top 5 Brown video moments of 2009
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/leftwatch/2009/12/the-best-brown-videos-of-2009.html
291 Obama needs economic growth,and he needs it badly. I suspect he knows how damaging stringent emission cuts would be to the fragile economy.
Brown, Obama and Gore in the mad Copenhagen Danse Macabre.
Whirling ever closer to a political and personal disaster, they dance on and on. ✞ ✟
290 Doesn’t Simon the Pieman have a lucrative sideline in writing comment pieces in political journals? I’m sure I’ve seen a link somewhere…
295 -
http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Guardian/Pix/steve_bell/2009/12/18/1261150988512/SteveBell.jpg
With Christmas so close, a failure of Copenhagen would have to be truly spectacular to have political consequences. People are too preoccupied with the oncoming festivities to notice anything less.
If the conference simply fails, people will shrug, then go back to working out how many times they’ll have to eat Christmas dinner. Even Brown getting into a fist fight with the Nigerian president would be swiftly forgotten. It’d probably take something like major trade sanctions to have significant political impact, and while Brown may not be a natural diplomat, he’s not quite that bad.
297. The middle one isn’t Gore, is it?
243, Sunil:
“234. Last night I was watching a BBC programme about climate change hosted by Iain Stewart where he was looking at some polar ice-cores with a specialist working on them, and the latter said there was a switch from a cold snap at the tail-end of the Ice Age (known as the Younger Dryas) to a much hotter period - a switch which took only a couple of years.
So rapid climate change has happened in the past, but obviously could not have been down to mankind (unless early man built power stations or drove cars!).”
Well yes, but to be fair, none of the proponents of AGW have ever disputed that natural processes can (and have) drive(n) climate change on this planet. The fact that in the past we’ve gone from far hotter than now (such as when dinosaurs plodded about) to far colder (in the peak of glaciations) is testament to that. However, the argument (which has validity) is that our actions are strongly forcing the pace of a natural cycle, pushing it farther and faster than it otherwise would have naturally occurred.
It seems “Conservatives for Palmer” style tactics might be spreading!
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/andrewgilligan/100020310/christmas-for-boris-as-labour-invites-defeat/
I am new to polling prediction and reasoning. However , as previosly stated, I am a big believer in relating projections to the bookmakers odds. It may well be that I am introducing a non acceptable criteria to polling. If so I apologise.
As at today the odds qouted by William Hill suggest seats at the GE would be as follows:-
Conservative 350/375
Labour 150/199
Liberal Democrat 50/59
Based on Angus Reid Poll using Electorial Calculas result would be:-
Conservative 368
Labour 197
Lib Dem 54
The bookmakers seem to favour Angus Reid and not the other polls that show a reduced support for the Conservatives.
Odds for the most seats are:-
Conservative 1/14
Labour 13/2
Lib Dem 80/1
I can well understand why people are very sceptical about Angus Reid polls but the great thing of course is that with an election only a matter of weeks away there will be the perfect opportunity for all the pollsters to show what they’re made of. If Angus Reid prove themselves to be accurate on March 25th or May 6th I think it’s safe to say no-one will ever doubt their reliability again.
Perhaps of more significance than the headless chickens running around in Copenhagen, it looks like Unite are handing Cameron a major victory before he comes to power.
Having benefited from a Civil Service redundancy payment back in the 90’s there is not a chance in hell that civil servants will win this one. The payments are way too generous for the current economic climate and public debt scenario.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/2009/dec/18/civil-serviice-unions-legal-challenge
Tory-supporting bloggers have complained to the Conservative leadership that their failure to gain access to senior party figures is allowing the online Left to steal a march on them, Newstatesman.com has learned.
The private meeting on Tuesday, which took place over a lavish three course meal in the House of Commons including braised wild boar and bread and butter pudding, was hosted by the shadow culture secretary Jeremy Hunt, the party chairman Eric Pickles, David Cameron’s advisor Henry Mcrory and their new media team of Rishi Saha, Sam Coates and Craig Ellder.
http://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/public-accounts/2009/12/160-labour-bloggers-private
102. Christina, what a laugh , Scottish Newspapers and teh word Democracy do not fit. The sooner the SNP stop feeding these Labour leeches the better. Maybe if they started printing facts rather than Labour propaganda then people might actually care a jot about them.
The papers are in decline in Scotland and for good reasons.
The “evil” Lord Ashcroft has agreed to buy out the loan to Watford. Watford not to go into administration. All sorted by the sounds of it…
304 - Posted by James Macintyre. Move along, nothing to see….
304
The author is James McIntyre. A person with zero credibility.
I say no more. Bottom barrel scraping of.
Christianity and the new AGW religion suffer from the same problem: everyone wants to go to heaven but no one wants to die.
301 - but more recently, at William Hill, Ken’s odds have lengthened from an already discouraging 8/1 to 14/1.
10/1 now Mr Gilligan.
Should have guessed. tim didn’t put the author’s lol name up.
305
Agreed . The Scots are spoiled. they should read English newspapers…
And that will be the Unintended Consequence of that measure.
Ironic?
304- keep spinning old boy, it seems to make you happy.
304 - I agree he’s as laughable as Fraser Nelson.
Two sides of the same coin.But that doesn’t mean occasionally one of them may get something right.
Given the shambles that Copenhagen seems to have turned into and given Brown is now talking about negotiations with a ’smaller group of countries’ could this shed new light on Brown’s sojourn with Al Gore into the broom cupboard?
Perhaps they were checking it out as a potential meeting room?
300 - However, the argument (which has validity) is that our actions are strongly forcing the pace of a natural cycle, pushing it farther and faster than it otherwise would have naturally occurred.
It might have validity, and it certainly makes sense that human activities are to some degree affecting it. The problem is that there is no solid evidence to show the existence and extent of the human effect. Climategate, the Australian and Russian disclosures, and the fact that may weather stations break the rules for their location and are in or near urban areas further undermines the data we have.
Given that, all this strutting around and sounding self-righteous to try to get an agreement to reduce the average temperature increase to 2C when actually we have no idea of the total human effect anyway is scientific and intellectual nonsense.
Fossil fuels are finite, so reducing our rate of consumption makes good sense. It’s a question of going about it sensibly.
311
Sally.
It’s a credibility issue. Tin is working hard at it.. to ensure he has none..
300. Well does AGW have any validity given this week’s cold weather? As others have noted, the irony in hosting a “Global Warming” conference in a freezing cold Copenhagen.
It does seem a little sinister that the bloggers were fed
Roast corn fed chicken supreme with Tromplet mushroom
I presume that is Trompette Mushroom, the Trumpet of Death.
316. Yes, my issue with fossil fuels is their renewability, something we can measure accurately.
314: You see ladies and gentleman, this is tims new tactic. Take a person on the left with no credibility at all (Ed Balls, James McIntyre) and use them to tarnish someone one the right by linking them up.
tim=transparent.
There is a rumor that Tiger Woods is getting a new sponsor - an audio electronics company - he will be the spokesman for their high fidelity line
319 “Black chanterelle, also known as trumpet of death, black trumpet, or horn of plenty, is the common name for the edible mushroom Craterellus cornucopioides.”
No Tory bloggers were harmed in the making of this non-story….
Am I being slow or has this not been in the UK MSM?
http://defensetech.org/2009/12/18/top-secret-brit-laptop-stolen/
314 Nice handbrake turn there tim.
263. John, You need to get out of the house more, perhaps if you talked more often with real people rather than yourself you would be able to understand.
Have anyone else noticed a pattern?
tim trashes one of his own jokers and then sets someone up from the other side who is supposed to be the equivalent [but never, ever is - not even in the same league].
The follow up is equally formulatic. Some point out the lack of equivalence, he says he’s not defending X but we are defending Y.
Blah blah. and then its starts all over again with someone else.
Round and round we go.
Is this supposed to be smearing with subtlety?
321 tim has already been called out this week on the McBride = Coulson lie…
306 SthLondon Nick
Where next for Lord A’s marginals strategy? Newcastle?
322 Snap!!!
But you were shorter and quicker!
Quite dull this but Cricky has put together a Chrimbo quiz (I scored a measley 6/12). Being the sad twisted leftie class bigot that he is he just had to put in a question which included Eton in the answers. Tediously predictable really:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/newsnight/8421353.stm
tim
Wheres your evidence about Liam Fox, Have you got any or is it just another smear…
324 - Yes it was in the media, but was quite low key.
312. madasafish
To be honest, the limited coverage of Scottish affairs in the Times and the Telegraph is generally of a higher standard, and less biased, than the Herald and the Scotsman. But the problem with the English papers is quantity: they all miss out absolutely tons of areas, especially culture, law and society.
Watford=nailed on tory win then
325 Sekundra, the basic story has been out there - but not, I think, any focus on this detail:
“If the theft of the laptop was not bad enough, the USB type encryption key needed to unlock the highly sensitive files was also taken.”
314 tim, Sorry no comparison. Fraser is a journalist who doesn’t fear attacking the Conservatives, criticising Cameron and being troublesome. McIntyre’s columns read like desperate job applcations for a PR post in Labour or Unite (or are they the same organisation now?).
329 - Coulson and McBride are both low life.
Hunt and Simon should both be sacked.
Macintyre and Nelson are both one eyed propagandist journalists.
I don’t think many people would agree with any of that.
332 - His face when Spellman got left off with a slap on the wrist was a classic. I thought he was going to cry live on air.
“I don’t think many people would agree with any of that.”
You said it.
339 “I don’t think many people would agree with any of that.” You see, you don’t even believe your own propaganda.
333 - Find the thread on his phone bills.
No need to bore everyone again about the fantasist Fox.
313. Mad, you get a more realistic viewpoint in the English press than you do in Scottish papers, they are so blatantly biased it is unbelievable, BBC the exact same.
318
It’s winter.
And winters in the UK ARE warmer than 20 years ago. That’s a FACT bourne out by personal observation.
Can we as humans do what is needed to prevent further warming is it IS man made?
If I take the utterances of Stern and others that 40% cuts in CO2 are needed by 2-20 and 80% by 2050 - and that’s ALL human CO2- and allowing for increases in the developing world.. we should be cutting by MORE to make up for increases elsewhere.
Based on existing technology and existing lifestyles that is impossible without reducing the UK population by 50% or so.
I suspect - IF man made global warming is happening - it is unstoppable.
And if it is unstoppable, then frankly Copenhagen is the wrong direction to go.. Like totally wrong..
That’s why the Chinese have given up. They are not prepared to stay in a medieval economy to save the world. No-one is. It is against human nature and the history of ma’s evolution and civilisation.
Copenhagen is driven by people who do not live in the real world and know they will have have personally to face the consequences of their proposed actions..
When Heathrow terminal 3 is cancelled and UK holiday flights are halved and the PM does nit fly to conferences (with hundreds of followers) and teleconferences instead.. and new car sales are halved.. then I will believe we are serious.
Until then it’s all hypocritical male cow excrement.
(I actually believe in AGW. I just don’t believe there is any will to stop it)
336 Where is Ave It? We may yet have to call him “Toenails”
Canny politics from his Lordship!! No doubt the LibDems will be crying foul within the hour…
“But…but…but - it’s NOT FAIR!!”
343 you mean you have no evidence, period. thought so..just another smear.
341/2 Ha Ha.
You got me.
Nelsons is a slightly better journalist than Macintyre.
But equally capable of comedy nonsense, he’s got a funny one up today, and his Mad Mel type vaccine scares preclude him being taken too seriously.
344. If the English press was as biased against the English govt as the Scottish press is against the Scottish govt there would be outrage. We Scots are just too willing to accept the status quo.
The BBC is the biggest stink in the cesspit of Scottish (ahem) “journalism”.
344
malcolmG
I am being utterly serious. Many Scottish papers will become uneconomic and close. Result: no Scottish press. Hence English papers.
What an irony…
349 thats the 4th error in 24 hrs tut tut.
340 EPIC FAIL!
Tim, treat yourself to a lie in this weekend - the hours are showing in the quality of your output.
Oracle / Marquee Mark.
Thanks for the replies, and yes, the USB encryption device wouldn’t have been left in the laptop case with the machine for convenience of course… Oh no, after all that would be against a Primary School’s security regulations…
348 - No, we found the evidence remember.
Liam the fantasist was claiming his £5000 per year mobile bills were troop visit related.
We looked at his expense claims and found they started way before he had anything to do with the defence job.
As I said, go look it up.
354 - That is the most shocking bit of the story.
Indeed, let’s just hope that the Login and Password weren’t written down on a piece of paper also in there… ?!?! (I genuinely have no idea btw, but you never know…)
Brother Brogan was on R5L Drive and made no mention of a poll tonight.
346 - I’m not denying that the world goes through heating and cooling cycles - we know it does.
We just have no evidence showing whether human activity has influenced it and by how much. We all assume that it must have but we have nothing to show categorically that it does.
We are here:
1 Does the earth go through heating and cooling cycles? - Yes, ice ages etc prove this
2 Is the earth in a heating cycle now? Yes, we think it is, although there is some conflicting data over the last decade
3 Is human activity partly to blame? We have no evidence one way or the other, but we assume that it contributes to it.
4 How much? we don’t know
I think ‘we can all agree neither Liverpool nor Grimsby are going to win the Premier League this year’ sort of comment…. is also part of the pattern.
357 - what’s the betting the password was either ’secret’ or ‘password’?
359. Claps
351. mad , I agree , but given that they are not reporting reality, purely biased rubbish then they will not be missed. they are tied so tightly to Labour that they will go down with them, it is unbelievable that people still buy them.
333 - how the f**k is that a politics question? It’s a politics quiz with an errant question about the policy of one specific private school. Classic Crick.
356 No, the real shocker is that according to the article, the laptop was stolen from *within* MoD Main Building.
359
Agreed.
I think Copenhagen is the wrong way to go about things.
And given that half the UK population is agnostic, the political path has not been prepared for the real sacrifices in living standards needed to make it work.
So I conclude either :
1. It’s all lies
2. Politicians have zero intention of implementing any agreement.
Because no-one will support it if not carefully explained in advance.
given the Government’s actions, I subscribe to 2 above.
360 - Given your love for Coulson Sally, I’d be a bit more careful with your taste in men.
Don’t want to turn into a cross between Deirdre Barlow and Gail Platt, now do we.
355 ‘no we found the evidence - remember’ = I can’t prove my point now and couldn’t then but if I am confident enough, I can have a go at creating a false memory and no one will think its as distorted as everything else seen through tim eyes.
331/337 - Does seem an expensive way of doing it! In all seriousness though I’m glad Watford will live to fight another day.
367 …And if all else fails, try to insult the poster.
366 - Madasafish.
Why is this even an issue in this country.
We can cut our emissions by 33% by moving to a French Nuclear model of electricity generation and make ourselves strategically more secure as well.
Surely we should just do it.
Add in a few renewables and you’re up to 40% and a better country.
Sheerman vs Balls: Round 62
Ding-dong!
http://www.channel4.com/news/articles/politics/domestic_politics/row+over+balls+exam+watchdog+appointment/3469742
346: madasafish @ 18:44
“And winters in the UK ARE warmer than 20 years ago. That’s a FACT bourne out by personal observation.”
Are you delberately posting total nonsense with the intention of being humourous?
Sounds like Dale has ruffled a few feathers,
http://iaindale.blogspot.com/2009/12/dont-like-it-up-em.html#links
346, 359. Good points from both of you. I personally agree that mitigation against the effects of global warming (whether anthropogenic or otherwise) should be a priority. The movement away from reliance on fossil fuels is also a sound strategy as well - and I think it’s possible without the severe economic damage. Consider - when the killing smogs were hitting London many decades ago and we passed the Clean Air Acts, it could have been extrapolated that the economic effects would be seriously damaging, but our economy is now far greater.
The key is the same as the key to most economic growth: work smarter, not harder. And, yes, assume warming effects are going to occur and work to mitigate them as much as possible.
363.
- As will the guardian when the public sector appointments go. All the non-jobs will disappear. Labour have changed the system so political patronage and nepotism rules - and all is controlled by secondary legislation (ministerial fiat)
The difference with the tories will be competence in handling the levers of power, all the previous norms and constitutional brakes having been broken. Just because Cameron appears nice now will not stop the revenge taking place.
Month 1
- end of public sector appts in guardian - new ‘public sector jobs site to be set up
- end of union ‘modernization fund’
- publishing of ‘real story’ of Iraq war including cabinet minutes to affect the labour party leader election and damage any credible candidate who is out of short trousers
month 2 etc..
369 SthLondon Nick
Electoral advantage is a luxury purchasable only by those domiciled in a low tax jurisdiction. There is lesson for all of us here.
306 - It may be worth looking at the update to the Iain Dale post linked at 374. It has an update:
“UPDATE: The latest bizarre conspiracy theory on Twitter, courtesy of the deluded BevaniteEllie, is that this was all concocted at a bloggers lunch at CCHQ on Tuesday … which I wasn’t even at. And if you want a laugh read this ridiculous excuse for an Exclusive, which James Macintyre has posted on the new Staggers blog. I’ve spoken to three people who were at the lunch and they say he’s got virtually every fact, assertion mor insinuation wrong - as Sam Coates points out in the comments…
I’ve made sure I’ve got a copy of this post - it takes some going to write a few hundred words without wandering near any actual truth! Not a single thing you say was said at the lunch was actually said - ask anyone who was actually there. Saying Eric Pickles was there is wrong. The number of attendees is wildly wrong. Even the pudding is wrong!In fact, the only things that are right are a few basic snippets that were posted online by centre-right blogs on the day: 1) that it happened on Tuesday, 2) that Hunt, Macrory and the new media team were there, and 3) that there was some boar in the main course). Cracking journalism.”
366 - and speaking of Obama being there, looking at this from a US centric POV, I cannot recall in my lifetime an administration in DC whose two main domestic policies - Health care reform and Cap and Tax (aka Cap and Trade) - could be in so much trouble and both be so unpopular in the country. - and this when one party has the WH and both houses of Congress.
On every major issue from Civil Rights, Medicare / Medicaid etc there was a bi-partisan approach. By deliberately excluding the Republicans from any involvement at all on either bill, the Dems are storing up trouble. It is stunningly inept.
If you wonder why Obama might seem a bit distant maybe that’s why. He knows there is no chance of this being approved by Congress. To suggest (as Hillary did) that there should be the $100 billion annual fund to pay to - among others - China, when at the same time China is our largest creditor, would mean that we are literally borrowing money from them to lend back to them.
The whole piece of nonsense is absurd.
366. “2. Politicians have zero intention of implementing any agreement.”
Most of the politicians over in Copenhagen will be pushing up daises long before either a) the worst effects of AGW occur, or b) the technological breakthroughs occur that allow us to prevent catastrophe or mediate AGW. I find it hard to take the commitments of dead people seriously.
Are our political institutions are up to the job of tackling problems where the time-scale is measured at a minimum in decades, and potentially as long as several centuries?
Perhaps the lizard people of the future will learn something from the failure of the ape people to deal with global warming.
371
tim
You make it sound so simple.
The lead time on nuclear power stations is 7-15 years. We have ordered? Zero.
We already generate 25% of our energy by nuclear. So your sums should reconsider that.. that’s 25% of energy co2 we cannot save as we already produce it without CO2.
Weneed to replace most of our nukes and coal fired power stations by 2020 just to keep the lights on. So all orders will not have any real effect on our existing installed base of oil/gas or coal stations before 2025.
Mo-one but NO_ONE is going to replace working and viable power stations before they have to.
Recycling? You are joking. Most of ours goes to China.. at extra CO2 cost..
There is no way in god’s earth if we placed orders now that the program you talk about could be fully working before 2030 at the earliest.
Please live in the real world. You dismiss a major and hugely expensive re-engineering project in three sentences.And it would cost £100s of billions we would have to borrow.
I wouyld anticipate energy costs to treble as a result. The country could not afford it and most OAPs would die from hypothermia as NO Government could afford the increases in pensions to pay the increased bills.
Unless you provide me with evidence of a planned and costed proposal I will ignore any further comments from you on the issue.
Ref the latest Staggers exclusive (from Dale’s Diary):
UPDATE: The latest bizarre conspiracy theory on Twitter, courtesy of the deluded BevaniteEllie, is that this was all concocted at a bloggers lunch at CCHQ on Tuesday … which I wasn’t even at. And if you want a laugh read this ridiculous excuse for an Exclusive, which James Macintyre has posted on the new Staggers blog. I’ve spoken to three people who were at the lunch and they say he’s got virtually every fact, assertion mor insinuation wrong - as Sam Coates points out in the comments…
I’ve made sure I’ve got a copy of this post - it takes some going to write a few hundred words without wandering near any actual truth! Not a single thing you say was said at the lunch was actually said - ask anyone who was actually there. Saying Eric Pickles was there is wrong. The number of attendees is wildly wrong. Even the pudding is wrong!In fact, the only things that are right are a few basic snippets that were posted online by centre-right blogs on the day: 1) that it happened on Tuesday, 2) that Hunt, Macrory and the new media team were there, and 3) that there was some boar in the main course). Cracking journalism.
346. Madasafish. In which case we need a government committed to protecting our borders, improving our sea defences and reducing our food and fuel dependence on far-away countries. Some of this is already covered by the green agenda. Sooner or later the rest will follow.
For St Ives betters:
Tory candidate in St Ives “I am not standing down”
http://tory-politico.com/2009/12/tory-candidate-in-st-ives-i-am-not-standing-down/
the lizard people of the future
Oh dear - Muckquire will still be around then?
378 Does the New Statesman model itself on the Mirror?
It’s just bizzare that they allow themselves to look so stupid.
Even if some members of the public swallow it [and others post links to it on reputable blogs!] every journo must know its drivel. They make themselves a laughing stock that’s incapable of being taken seriously.
342 - lol thats timbot for you.
Watching C4 news I think we’re seeing in Copenhagen, the first instance of the New World Order. The unipolar moment is dying. A new Bipolarity is emerging.
373
346: madasafish @ 18:44
“And winters in the UK ARE warmer than 20 years ago. That’s a FACT bourne out by personal observation.”
Are you delberately posting total nonsense with the intention of being humourous?
by HurstLlama December 18th, 2009 at 7:05 pm
We have lived in the same house for 27 years.
The first decade saw winters with long cold spells, winter snow of metres deep and drifts in our backyard of 3 metres.
In the past 10 years we have had hardly any snow and nothing over 30cms. And no drifts.
Winters based on my personal experience over that period ARE warmer. Fact.
I have a greenhouse. I no longer have internal night temperatures of -12C as I used to. -5 C is the worst I have seen in the past 10 years.
386 - Don’t take it too seriously.
Its just like the Spectator with a Melanie/Fraser vaccine scare story.
388 - I sometimes wonder if that’s Gordon’s problem (or one of them) - maybe he’s bipolar
What’s that I can hear, seems like it is coming from a very deep hole. Whoever is down there is still frantically digging away….
390 Oh look, it’s that funny linking the left and right tactic (again).
389 - Stop the presses! Definitive proof of global warming, University of East Anglia eat your heart out.
390. And here we go again…
FFS, the BBC just can’t help themselves,
Watford are saved from administration
http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/teams/w/watford/8418667.stm
370 - he will be on about your intelligence next, thats another classic line from the smearleader
396- Thats an expensive way to garner new voters
396 Indeed. What does the last paragraph have to do with football?
395 - who was it that said “It ain’t what he doesn’t know that worries me: it’s what he knows for sure that just ain’t so”? it seems apropos
396 - Didn’t Sir Elton have some connection with Watford?
396 We’ll have to pardon Ave It’s exurberance next time he posts!
336. they all miss out absolutely tons of areas, especially culture, law and society.
Three things Smackistan severely lacks!
396. Crick/muckguire/muckbride/tim must have hacked in.
Unless Ave It 09 has decided to discredit the BBC by hacking in.
381 If the world REALLY wants to cut down on greenhouse gases, it would, for example, donate a few tens of billions to Nigeria to put in place a gas collection system that would stop vast gas flaring.
To get the scale of this monstrous waste:
http://www.foe.co.uk/resource/reports/gas_flaring_nigeria.pdf
And look at a satellite image of Africa at night to see the scale of the way Nigeria is lit up at night:
http://www.nightearth.com/
But reports this evening that President Medvedev of Russia had already left the talks while Japan’s Prime Minister, Yukio Hatoyama, was planning to leave later last night heightened the feeling that time was running out for a deal.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/environment/article6962193.ece
How dare they walk out on the Messiah and his trusty side-kick the International Statesman of the Year!
From the report sounds like there is going to be a serious world shortage of fudge by the time they finally sign on the dotted line!
401 I recall Elton John was a major financial benefactor to Watford FC in the early 1980s
290. Very perceptive post Ted
Snow very gloomy about lack of agreement at Copenhagen.
” an allegedly angry Mrs Baird was said to have made it clear she felt she was being humiliated and asked: “Don’t you know who I am?”"
ahhhh bless
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/lawandorder/6837122/Solicitor-General-gets-into-messy-incident-over-puppy-at-station.html
407. Indeed I believe he was owner of the club when ‘ole turnip head’ took them to the FA Cup Final.
410 I wonder if The Sun could find the woman & child involved - would make a good human interest story.
389: Madasafish @ 19:18
Sorry old chap, but personal recollections do not equal facts; beliefs yes but not facts.
Normally your posts seemed to be far more considered, which is why I asked if you were making an attempt at humour.
Hmmm… so Copenhagen fails.
I am strongly inclined to believe that there is a significant man-made contribution towards climate change.
Nevertheless, I am very glad that this particular harebrained scheme has failed. These artificial global targets are pathetic.
Maybe now we can have more sensible and less hysterical discussions about how to become more self-sufficient.
50 days to save the world? What abject nonsense.
413 Madasafish is right. I have garden including aloes, bananas, 5 species of palm, spanish bayonets and other plants that were not considered hardy in books published as late as the 1980’s. I’m not by the sea but on edge of Salisbury Plain.
In 60’s there were regular snowfalls up to Easter, in 70’s & up to mid 80’s regular snow & ice and village was cut off every winter for at least a day if not more. Snow is now rare, long periods of frost rare and spring has been earlier.
Fact not recollection.
414 - “50 days to save the world? What abject nonsense.”
Thats Gordon Brown for you
379- Obama has been all hat and no cattle, as they say in certain parts of Dixie. Plenty of presidents have managed to move their agendas with far fewer congressional seats (e.g., Reagan never had 60 Senate seats nor did he ever have control of the House), which begs the question of why such a skilled communicator and beloved individual as Obama could fail so miserably to move his agenda.
Ironically, he might have been more successful if he didn’t have 60 Senate seats, since he would have been forced to recalibrate his approach right from the beginning and pursue a bipartisan strategy. He figured he had no need for Republicans, though, given his majorities, so he chose the surprisingly treacherous path of monopartisanship. And given his curious habit of serving as a doormat for Pelosi and Reid, I’m sure this strictly partisan approach won’t change until the GOP forces him to bargain with them after they’ve reclaimed a big chunk of seats in Congress. People hate this style of governing (hence the declining approval ratings), but Obama seems either too weak-willed or too oblivious to do anything about it.
Gordon’s plan B seems to a London Summit “early in 2010″ with fewer countries. So he’ll preside over Afghanistan Summit then Climate Summit, oh and then there’s an election.
If something gets him praise he does try to repeat the trick againm and again and again doesn’t he? Didn’t he notice that London G20 didn’t actually play domestically?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/financialcrisis/6835711/Moodys-axe-blow-to-rating-on-Spanish-debts.html
Interesting read
A throwaway comment at the end:-
“Ireland has been widely praised for taking the drastic steps needed to restore credibility after swinging from boom to bust. Its flexible economy has let it switch output towards exports, which have held up well despite the strong euro.”
Luckily we have no boom and no bust
381. madafish
“There is no way in god’s earth if we placed orders now that the program you talk about could be fully working before 2030 at the earliest.
Please live in the real world. You dismiss a major and hugely expensive re-engineering project in three sentences.And it would cost £100s of billions we would have to borrow.”
These issues needed to be addressed at least ten years ago.
Instead we’ve pi55sed away the wealth generation of the last decade (and borrowed more on top of it) on property speculation and mindless consumer spending.
With huge majorites, public goodwill and a benign economic environment this government could have achieved many things. Instead all it resulted in was a bankrupted economy, an energy situation heading towards certain disaster and unfunded pension plans.
If you’re under 30 and reading this then take my advice and emigrate. This country will not be pleasant to live in soon.
Ashcroft in the news.
Oh good.
Poor William Hague has spent the whole week avoinding interviews since Philip Hammond grassed on him, how long can this go on?
Come on Willie, get your story straight.
414. Wibbler
Maybe now we can have more sensible and less hysterical discussions about how to become more self-sufficient.
Unfortunately, I can’t see there will be any sensible discussions because the last thing that these global politicians and carbon fuel interests want is energy self-sufficiency of any sort. It’s far to progressive a step for them.
There are technologies out there that could make a significant impact and indeed do so comparatively cheaply if sufficient investment were put into them. The problem is that they would undermine the power base (and the bank balances) that politicians and carbon fuel interests have and undermine their vision of ‘Globalism’ and their so called ‘New World Order’.
Nope instead we will no doubt have to suffer many more tedious, self-gratifying and irrelevant rounds of prevarication and pontification from them until they find some new hobby horse to bore us to death with. At which point whatever the reality they will declare ‘victory’ and move on.
So it ever has been and so will it continue to be.
418. “Gordon’s plan B seems to a London Summit “early in 2010″ with fewer countries.”
Riots in the streets just before an election campaign. The man’s a genius! No wonder world leaders are falling over each other to meet with him
The police bill is going to be fun for all of these London Summits.
Did anyone see this?
Barry Sheerman, the chairman of the children, schools and families select committee, told Channel 4 News Mr Balls was a “disgrace” for railroading through the appointment of a chairman for Ofqual.
Under constitutional reforms introduced by Gordon Brown soon after he became prime minister, MPs were given the right to vet candidates for important public jobs.
However, Mr Sheerman tonight accused the children’s secretary of “undermining” those reforms by making Kathleen Tattersall the new regulator without a pre-appointment hearing.
http://www.channel4.com/news/articles/politics/domestic_politics/row+over+balls+exam+watchdog+appointment/3469742
SKY - reports from Indian FM that a “non binding” deal possible at Copenhagen
415: Ted @ 19:47
I too can remember back to the sixties and indeed before, but I am not prepared to accept that my recollections prove that winters are now warmer or colder than they were then.
If the word “fact” means anything, it surely must be more than an individual’s recollection of past experiences.
381 - That post made no sense at all, and I don’t even know why you brought recycling into it.
421 – Why is tim in distraction mode..?
Not had time to read the rest of the thread, has Gordon Brown c0cked up again?
‘The paper reported that a police community support officer turned up to deal with the altercation, and an allegedly angry Mrs Baird was said to have made it clear she felt she was being humiliated and asked: “Don’t you know who I am?” ‘
“Don’t you know who I am?”
Yes, the MP who claimed her Christmas decorations on expenses and who has done Fk All while thousands of jobs have been lost in her constituency. Still they’re only steelworkers not important people like bankers and estate agents.
417 Good points. Maybe,like Clinton,he would do better in negotiating with a hostile Congress.
Any Questions on R4 now:
“The panellists are Labour peer Roy Hattersley, science writer and broadcaster Dr Gabrielle Walker, Conservative prospective parliamentary candidate and former diplomat Rory Stewart, and Nick Clegg’s chief of staff, Danny Alexander.”
426. Floater.
Is that more binding than an ‘aspiration’ or less so? I’ve lost touch with the etiquette and intent of political double-speak.
432 - The Tories pulled David Davis then.
Climate issues?
Interesting article from Nick Cohen
http://www.standpointmag.co.uk/node/2533/full
419 Floater - There is still a nasty threat there of ratings downgrades becoming self-fulfilling prophecies and spreading through the banking system.
We may not be on safe ground yet:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/financialcrisis/6827320/SandP-downgrades-Greece-while-concerns-mount-over-secret-defence-budget.html
431. Benji
That’s assuming that Obama is anything like as talented an administrator and leader as Clinton and not just some political pretty boy.
434 No.. just a smear tim.
Oops.
Serious doubts over the viability of the scheme to track people in and out of the country emerged today after the Government gave way to pressure from the European Commission over the collection of travellers’ personal information.
The Home Office offered a series of concessions to ensure the £1.2 billion electronic borders scheme would not fall foul of EU rules.
But the concessions to the European Commission threaten to undermine the whole reason for the system which was to enable officials to check travellers against watchlists of terrorists and criminals.
The Government’s climbdown on the collection of information came during intensive negotiations over whether the scheme breached the free movement of people within the EU.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/article6961141.ece
438 - So why did he pull out?
432. I shall break the habit of a lifetime and actually listen to something on the radio. Rory Stewart is awesome.
436 - 2010 looks like being a very interesting year.
389 - as another ‘fact’ when the Eagles play the Giants in NY (or actually in NJ right across the river) the will be playing in 18 degrees - way below normal for this time of year. Depending on how fast it moves, the largest winter storm in 30 years is headed to the northeast and will dump much snow on them during the game.
So anecdotal or personal observed data can say pretty much anything.
What about the heatwave in the UK in 1976, or the vicious winter of 63/64?
Get your snow blower out, S&S!
432. “Nick Clegg’s chief of staff, Danny Alexander”
That explains an awful lot!
Dearie dearie me.
440 - Ill and has lost voice. Try doing something other than snide for a change.
440 tim
Rhythm for Blues.
440 - brilliant, I can see what you did there
445 - this is tim you are talking about, ask him for something he might possibly be able to deliver
****** BETTING POST ******
So kind of Shadsy to enter into the Christmas Spirit early with what I view as a free money couplet of bets, as per his post 60 above re: the number of “other” MPs elected at the next GE, excluding the three main parties, the Speaker, SNP, Plaid and the N.I. parties. Included, therefore would be the Greens, UKIP, BNP and the odd independent MP.
My own guess is that these will total 2 or 3 such MPs and their number is most unlikely to exceed 4. Thereby one should cover with equal stakes the 0-2 seat and 3-5 seat bands, both available with Ladbrokes at odds of 6/4.
Provided the total of such MPs does not exceed 5 in total, this combination bet will produce an overall return of 25% (or 1/4) over the next 3.5-5.5 months.
The words “money”, “rope” and “old” spring to mind, but that’s only my opinion, please use your own judgement.
443. “when the Eagles play the Giants”
Surely that was last weekend. When the Eagles won handsomely. Unlike their previous opponents.
Which team was it that was humiliated the weekend before?
SKY reporting “EU saying it very difficult for them to accept what is on table” (at Copenhagen)
410. It must be very distressing for people to forget who they are, and have to ask strangers in desperation.
389 - and down here in the heart of Dixie after 3 years of stage 3 drought we have virtually non-stop rain for four months, and temperatures are way below normal for this time of year. Mid-afternoon the temp was 38 - way off what it should be.
Let’s not forget last September when we had 25 inches of rain in 24 hours.
Brown’s Plan B seems to exclude China:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/copenhagen-climate-change-confe/6841260/Copenhagen-climate-summit-Gordon-Brown-has-Plan-B-to-beat-US-and-China-deadlock.html
I’m seriously worried now the flat earthers have all but ended any hope of us averting the threat of catostrophic climate change. No deal in Copenhagen spells disaster for all of us.
I take the view that when the public are laughing at the PM, their days in high office are over. If HIGNFY plays the broom cupboard clip, it will be a gift to the Conservative Party. A compilation of the top 10 comedy youtube moments by Brown, would show Joe Public what a hapless buffoon we have in charge of the red button. Wasn’t elected, won’t get elected. A PM by default, not by result…
Think on.
450 - you are right - they’re playing the Jets. I had Giants Stadium on my mind and assumed….
Which team was it that was humiliated the weekend before?
I wouldn’t have a clue: I’m not much of a football fan you know
433. Not more binding but there’s an expectation of a bit more effort.
An aspiration is little more than recognising something as a nice-to-have, rather like noting that it would be a good idea to lose a few pounds.
A non-binding agreement on the other hand is more like joining Weightwatchers: you’ve publicly said you’re going to do something about the issue so it’s a bit embarrassing if the figures don’t go as they’re meant to but no-one gets too cross if they don’t.
455 Richie Rich
Don’t worry. Willie and Zac will sort things out in the second half of 2010. I understand Zac is proposing to buy a backup planet. Sir Richard Branson is offering transport.
455. Richie and which countries leaders do you consider as ‘flat earthers’ then?
The standard answer to “Do you know who I am?” is “Ask Matron, I’m sure she can tell you.”
431- I think you’re absolutely right, and that the best thing that could happen for Obama politically would be for the GOP to win back at least one chamber of Congress next year. As it is now, not even liberals highly inclined to trust Obama can swallow the idea that the Democrats’ current failures are the fault of the Republicans. They figure, sensibly, “hey, we won huge congressional majorities, why aren’t you fulfilling your promises?!”
And Obama doesn’t seem to have much idea about how to master a Congress of his own party, so he comes off looking weak and left to govern at the mercy of Pelosi and Reid. I think he would be much more convincing and successful if he were forced to do battle with a hostile Congress and could then blame failures on them too.
455 - I’m seriously worried now the flat earthers have all but ended any hope of us averting the threat of catostrophic climate change. No deal in Copenhagen spells disaster for all of us.
I’m sorry but this is nonsense - even apart from the atrocious spelling
At the risk of repeating what I said earlier -
The problem is that there is no solid evidence to show the existence and extent of the human effect. Climategate, the Australian and Russian disclosures, and the fact that may weather stations break the rules for their location and are in or near urban areas further undermines the data we have.
Given that, all this strutting around and sounding self-righteous to try to get an agreement to reduce the average temperature increase to 2C when actually we have no idea of the total human effect anyway is scientific and intellectual nonsense.
We are here:
1 Does the earth go through heating and cooling cycles? - Yes, ice ages etc prove this
2 Is the earth in a heating cycle now? Yes, we think it is, although there is some conflicting data over the last decade
3 Is human activity partly to blame? We have no evidence one way or the other, but we assume that it contributes to it.
4 How much? we don’t know
Until we have clear answers to 3 and 4, and understand the problem, we cannot solve it.
446 -Daves Mates climate safety- Pull your Davis out put your Yeo in.
455 - and no deal in Copenhagen does not spell disaster - but it may save a great deal of taxpayers money being wasted to no effect.
COP15 in Copenhagen is a classic example of “doing something” rather than “solve the problem”.
“Holy Heaters Batman - the planet is warming up!”
“To the batmobile, Robin, we must do something!!”
460. The criminal CRU hacking/leaks have given all the developing nations the ammunition needed to resist aspects of a binding agreement that were crucial to ensuring well-being of our planet.
We can start by listing the leaders from India and China as flat earthers. They not wanting independent observers and binding agreements says all you need to know about how seriously they are taking this issue.
462 The problem with that scenario is that it is a huge obstacle for the GOP to take back either house,Obama’s problems not withstanding. The current state of the republican party does not fill one with optimism-who on earth decided that the indescribably ghastly Sarah Palin should be a spokesman for the conservative cause? Losing NY-23 was inept political bungling of the highest order.
458. Thanks David. My initial comment was little more than a piece of throwaway rhetoric. I didn’t expect a response.
so it’s a bit embarrassing if the figures don’t go as they’re meant to
Oh you mean SNAFU. Well that’s par for the course.
This should be worth a couple of points to Cameron
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/leftwatch/2009/12/the-best-brown-videos-of-2009.html
466 Richie Rich
I think you’re right.
Is Richie Rich calling Obama and Hu ‘flat earthers’
Risible
R4 Question time
Hattersly criticising people who only live in their home in his village at the weekends. Isn’t that what Hattersly did and has done for 40 yrs….
What a breath of fresh air tonights Any Questions is.
Spontaneous applause for the statement from Hattersley “We are still paying the price of the catastrophe of selling council housing”.It’s coming from a rural area though, that Thatcher killed through that policy.
309, 310, 315, 316:
Are you referring to my comment at 304? I don’t have anything to do with James Macintyre.
462 - Obama’s real problem is a total lack of experience in anything but Chicago machine politics. He has not even served a full term in the Senate, and achieved nothing while there. He doesn’t understand how Washington works, so has to rely on Pelosi and Reid.
Contrast that with LBJ, the ultimate Washington insider who knew exactly how to work the system, and passed all the bills JFK could not get through.
Obama’s other problem is his low approval ratings which means his power of influence and persuasion is very limited.
None of this makes him a bad man, he’s just not a very experienced politician and so far he doesn’t appear to be learning from his mistakes.
ooooh last minute deal in the offing?
Sky: US claims “meaningful deal reached with China”
Will Brown claim credit? will it involve him splashing more of our cash?
472 - No.
He lived in Birmingham when he was an MP for Sparkbrook and now lives in the Peak District.
Please don’t comment on politics, you know nothing.
477 Tim , I know that, He still had two homes because of his job yet criticises others for what he’s been doing for donkeys yrs.
The criminal CRU hacking/leaks have given all the developing nations the ammunition needed to resist aspects of a binding agreement that were crucial to ensuring well-being of our planet
If you are saying that the ‘well-being’ of our planet could be assured by a binding agreement, please could you provide some evidence to prove this?
471. Hu yes, Obama no.
Obama lacks the kind of conviction to make decisions and get things done. Never have I known a president promise so much and deliver so little in their first year of office. Now is the time to show strong leadership when you are at the height of your powers and popularity.
As much as I disliked Bush, at least he and his administration acted on their promises.
I can add my voice to the anecdotal evidence of global warming. When I was growing up, January and February, in particular, were characterised by common snowfalls, pretty frequent blizzards, consistent sub zero minima and freezing fogs etc.
In the last few years, personally, I’ve noticed the average temperature for January and Feburary appears to be about 30 degrees centigrade, with balmy breezes, cloudless skies, and nice seafood lunches for 150 baht.
It’s a pretty dramatic trend.
467- I agree that the GOP will not take back either the House or Senate (or at least it would be a huge shock if they do), which takes away Obama’s best hope for improving his political position before 2012. Of course, improvements in the economy, Afghanistan, etc., would also be helpful to him, but the importance of Washington’s current imbalance of power should not be underestimated in explaining his problems.
As you mentioned NY-23, I would say that the GOP’s internal problems are much more of a concern for 2012 than for 2010. Next year, it will be a referendum on Obama and his Democratic Congress, and I don’t really think that the strange circumstances of NY-23 will be of any real significance then. However, by 2012, it will be very important for the party to have worked out those internal differences and be prepared to present a unified front against the Democrats. They are certainly not there yet.
477- like you not commenting on defence matters you mean tim?
Copenhagen watch - Gordon fails to save world
Again, Labour share just too low.
The Tories are solid but theres still clearly a tithe of swing voters that they need to pull in to make life more comfortable for them.
beeb news now saying that US and other states have reached a meaningful agreement, according to a US official
483 But Gordon saved the world once this year already. Its someone elses turn now. Hes just standing back to allow someone else to do it.
I bet he’s drilled a hole in the wall of the room where the USA and China are and is squinting through now. Perhaps he may learn a thing or two.
new thread
478 - I suggest you listen again tomorrow and see if you can grasp the point about the lack of social housing in rural areas since the sell of of council housing and the crowding out by second home owners.
It really isn’t that difficult.
486 - Gordon and a glory hole - now, that would be a rumour……..
455. The flat earthers are not players at Copenhagen; they are watching from the sidelines incapacitated by laughter. The talks are about what financial consequences should flow from (in your terms) the fact that the earth is round.
Meanwhile some of the big boys are arguing, others have got bored and gone home, and Gordy is trying to pretend to his mates in the playground that he is one of the big boys too:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/environment/article6962193.ece
You have to love this bit:
“Mr Brown said that he had an alternative plan in case the talks failed to yield an agreement. He declined to give any details about this plan, though it is likely to include convening another summit involving a smaller number of countries early next year.”
Unaccountably, the Times article refers to “the key players” in a way which suggests that Gordon and the UK are not among them. The leaders of Russia and Japan have got bored and gone home, but Gord is pathetically kicking his heels in his bed and breakfast awaiting an invitation to save the world.
Most surprisingly of all Shagger Precott’s scoop of yesterday - “Breaking: Just been told Gordon’s been asked by other world leaders to chair leaders discussions. Big man for a big job” turns out to be baloney. Well I never.
468. No worries. I wasn’t being entirely serious myself either.
475- But Tim, that was supposed to be why it was such genius for Obama to pick Rahm Emanuel to crack skulls and get business done at the other end of Pennsylvania Avenue. The folly of relying on Pelosi and Reid to do the right thing should have been obvious from the beginning, so why has the much-vaunted Rahm machine failed so completely in controlling the course of events?
And it’s too late now. Like a new teacher stepping to the front of his class for the first time, Obama needed to take charge and be tough right away lest he lose control irrevocably. Instead, he has let the schoolkids run the classroom and the tone has been set. Pelosi and Reid now feel entitled to that power and won’t willingly give it back. Why did Rahm allow this to happen? Why did Obama allow this to happen?
****** BETTING POST ******
Another interesting new market from Shadsy is the “Voting Percentage Turnout” offered across 5 bands ranging from 70%. It’s not entirely clear whether Ladbrokes are basing these percentages on GB voting only or the entire UK, although the impact of including/excluding NI is not huge either way.
Looking at turnout figures below for the seven GEs held over the past 20 years, it appears that (with the arguable exception of 1997) these were markedly higher when resulting in a Tory rather than a Labour victory.
2005 Labour…61.4%
2001 Labour…59.4%
1997 Labour…71.4%
1992 Con……77.7%
1987 Con……75.3%
1983 Con……72.7%
1979 Con……76%
This suggests that the turnout figure next year is likely to be a good deal higher than the 61.4% figure achieved in 2005 and probably in excess of 65%.
This leads me to concentrate my betting purely on the uppermost two bands, i.e. 65.0%-69.99% offered at odds of 2/1 and the top band of 70% band.
In this way I achieve effective odds odds of 1.14/1 should the larger bet win and a break even result should the bet on a >70% turnout prove successful. A sound value combination bet imho.
LOL
The flat earthers are the ones who still believe that man has the power to change the climate. Much as those who believed that the whole world was created by God just for man or that the sun went around the earth.
When you flat earther warming fanatics finally catch up with the proper science like the research being done at CERN then you might start to realise that the universe does not revolve around your petty little existences.
Hope you are enjoying the snow.