Would you sell Labour at 1,000 pounds a seat?
December 21st, 2009
Now the high rollers are entering the market
After all the excitement on the commons seats spread markets last week there’s been a sharp reverse following the latest spate of opinion polls.
A couple of days ago I was noting that there’s been a rush of big value bets on Labour. One at £1,000 a seat was a Labour buy and there’d been two £1,000 a seat Tory sells.
Well it’s all gone the other way round. This morning Sporting Index emailed me to say that prices had moved back following a £1,000 a seat sell bet on Labour at the 212 seat level.
This is serious stuff. If Labour managed to squeeze to 282 seats then this punter would be down £70,000. On the other hand she/he would make £50,000 if the outcome was 162 seats.
The betting will get bigger as we get closer to the date, A week or so before the 2005 election there were £5,000 a seat trades being reported.
This is a form of punting for the brave and those with deep pockets. I have lost and won big sums , though not on this scale, spread betting.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
I just made FIFTY GRAND.
Merry Christmas everyone!
xxx
Hah! A suitable comment to come FIRST.
I suppose punters can trade out if things go the wrong way before the election - in effect there is a stop loss position.
1. And what do you intend to do with your loose change, sir?
If I bet to that order of magnitude, I’d be shot. After I’d been smeared in agent Orange, given open-heart surgery with a rusty coathanger and had splints put under my fingernails.
If I lost after doing so, I’m sure my fate would be even worse.
FPT 286 - Sky showed a classic picture yesterday that demonstrated this. Merkel, Sarkozy, Obama, Barassso, and Gordo all in a room surrounded by advisers. The first 4 were all listening intently to one another, concentration etched on their face, Gordo he was off in la la land, as he does whenever Cameron / A.N. Tory speaks in the HoC.
Could it be the case that this Labour sell was placed by the same person that placed the buy (or the Tory sell) a few days back after a sudden change of heart?
1. Nice one. Over what period? What can a thriving airport novelist expect to make over a year in Brown’s Britain? At this rate you may even be able to afford to pay London prices for your wh0res!
I missed the infamous Brown video link conference… is it available on Youtube?
7. Could the said person have been taken in by the MORI 3% lead hoax?
More seriously, if Mike is right and big money punters are going to get involved in this market in size, then last week’s ramping efforts are surely going to be renewed - with some potentially ugly consequences.
1 and Mr Darling is so pleased for you.
He’s eagerly awaiting the £25 grand - it’ll mean he can stop borrowing for nearly 5 seconds.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/multimedia/archive/00662/Cartoon_662098a.jpg
5 - there’s a form of torture using glass catheters.
13 - Gah! Did not need to be thinking about that…
13 - I don’t think my other half needs ideas suggesting to him.
What is the PB policy on reporting rumours here? It needs to be tightened in the light of recent experience.
We had someone reporting a twitter from a Labour candidate, which itself was only a report of a rumour. Then SeanT stepped in with a counter rumour (or was it simple mischief not intended to be taken seriously?)
Either way - no more reporting of rumours.
Over to Mike…
The problem with this sort of unbalanced illiquidity is the “wisdom of the crowds” ceases to apply, as this one punter will create a narrative of their own.
13 – Tabbers, desist Sir, such posts always remind me of the Dr Szell’s dental torture scene from ‘Marathon Man’
(Two threads ago) Am I going mad, or has nobody else noticed/commented on the table at the top of the thread which has the number “11″ highlighted in green, as if to indicate that the smallest Conservative lead was 11, when the table also shows that the lead was only 10 on 19th April?
16. You didn’t get caught out yourself, by any chance, did you Rod?
20. No, but I must admit to being tempted
16. Of course it was mischief. I claimed Labour were AHEAD, and then I added that Mebyon Kernow were beating the Tories in London (something of a hint that I wasn’t entirely serious?!)
I was satirising the rumour-mongers.
8. It’s the Italian offer for Marks of Cain. Just a big fat lump of cash for a book I have already written. Sweet.
This year as last I will earn more than the prime minister. The difference this year is that I will be registered as non-resident for tax purposes.
I’ll stop boasting now, lest Fate is sorely tempted to beat me up.
10 runnymede
I can comfirm the punter is not the same as you mention but one that has struck his/her first election trade.
9.Wibbler,the video link was so toe curlingly bad that i don’t think you’ll have long to wait.
Even Tim came out with a sarcastic comment aimed at Brown
1. Congrats.
FPT 59 “There are easy home wind/energy devices (not turbines) that are amazingly cheap to make and produce lots of energy.”
That’s my view mostly. Instead of people looking for a single 20% solution to having to import energy from nutters we should be looking for twenty separate micro solutions that do 1% each.
23. Thanks for that nugget - I presume you are either a bookie or the punter concerned then?
26
I’m the politics trader for Sporting Index.
22. Yes, but IIRC that addendum was after you had stated twice simply that on good authority the poll had Labour ahead…
I thought you were joshing, but others not familiar with your impish ways might have been taken in.
Consider yourself told off.
Crikey BBC News saying France has just shut off electricity to 2m homes in SE France to prevent the whole grid from going down.
Yikes. Like Enron’s California all over again.
Good Afternoon Spirit Of Christmas Voters For Nick Palmer Worldwide
Meanwhile …. returning after a (thankfully) short wallet emptying trip to Johnny Foreigner Land, what apparition is that I see before me ….. No not the ghosts of Jacob Marley !! Bloody Cheek !! …. No, having briskly scanned the threads my ARSE Mk II - Automated Responding Smiley Equipment - is on full alert, and there can only be one individual who has triggered such a five star response - Tis the ghost of threads past - The Spectre of Martin Day !!
A Very Merry Christmas One And All.
Where/what channel is/was the Brown/Miliband press conference that people were talking about an hour ago?
Before Gordon Brown became prime minister, David Miliband said on QT that if GB became PM, people would suddenly be yearning back to the good old days and saying what a great PM Tony Blair was, compared with Gordon. I reckon that if David Miliband became PM, people would say the same about Gordon compared with him.
I think Ed Miliband will be the next leader of the Labour Party.
10 runnymede
To be fair, the rumour was sourced from a named Labour PPC. I think it is legitimate to report sourced rumours. I am also happy to get rumours from people with trusted track records like Don.
You are right though. We will get more and more ramping in the next few weeks.
£1000 a seat? Wow.
28. Colour me chastened. But that won’t stop me doing it again if we get more ludicrous ramping.
16…buy the rumour sell the fact.
22 - Congratulations Sean. I signed my first book contract a couple of weeks ago in return for the grand sum of £50..!
1.
“I just made FIFTY GRAND.”
I suggest you should send half of it to GideO immediately to help fund his Party’s ‘Spend! Spend! spend!’ plans for government. Latest is Caroline Spelman’s announcement on coastal towns:
““Conservatives will give local councils and communities more power and funding to help create a coastal town resurgence.”"
Presumably there will be free Nannying in local bed & breakfasts, providing you leave a note to say htat the Nanny is doing casework.
32 wibbler
This isn’t actually a rumour. Sporting Index is in contact with Mike who thus reports to you guys to give you all an idea what’s going on at the big firms.
32 - My take exactly. This site thrives on rumours. We have to be selective about what we choose to believe - that’s the main lesson I took from Saturday’s events.
32 Red Jester
No, I meant to “MORI lead of 3 rumour” which was sourced by a Labour PPC.
The wow at the end was in shock at the size of the stakes, which put my own puny dealings into pathetic context.
11-If only, he’s borrowing c£340k a second at present.
38 - i totally agree. I was getting a shade nervous over the rumours what with Sean T i believe predicting a 4 point Labour lead. Nevertheless I changed our prices when the FACTS were known.
25. Yes Mr Jones.
But there is no political support for such solutions.
The government(one Gordon Brown)likes things the way they are. Get us all dependent on big oil, tax us to oblivion, and then make us pay a licence to be allowed to pay the tax.
There are a myriad of potential energy solutions which could be applied at consumer level or local level but there will no attempt made to assist people. In fact the opposite. Anyone trying to invent their own solution will be harassed and blocked.
The problem is too much vested interest. It will take a massive political effort to overturn it. Scientists realise now that government is the problem and they are trying to find ways for inventions not to be blocked.
Did you notice that one of the objectives of our new world government is take control of the patent office? That’s to make sure nothing can be changed while they fill their bulging pockets yet further.
That’s why we are all in this ludicrous situation locked into hundred year old technologies and negative environmental effects resulting. If we could just get rid of oil and the internal combustion engine, nuclear power and all, we could get free and clean energy and transportation.
The problem is folks like Gordon Brown who loves power in the sense of influence over and above power in the sense of electricity. The last thing they want is for anyone to solve the problem. It’s only money, power and control they desire.
SeanT - being nosey, how much did you stake !?!
43. I make my cash from thriller-writing, not punting!
Though I do have two outstanding bets I hope to win, one with ukpaul or st john (I forget which) on Brown staying as leader (I think he will); another with James Kelly that the Tories will form the next government (again, I think they will).
Neither of these bets are in the five figure department, tho.
41. I am sorry if I spooked the market. But I think regular readers will have guessed I was havin’ a larf.
36 ““Conservatives will give local councils and communities more power and funding to help create a coastal town resurgence.””
- and the EU will make Blackpool a city of culture, or whatever it did to Glasgow and Liverpool…
(and it’s my home town too, me and Alistair Cooke)
44 - Not at all, i do love the banter and of course the excitement….even if it’s not always in my favour
Lord Mandelson will enter mayoral race, says Ken Livingstone
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/article-23786654-lord-mandelson-will-stand-as-london-mayor-says-ken-livingstone.do
Hills have him at 66/1
40
Far be it it from me to defend Mr Darling, but £340K per second is a tad of an overexaggeration - check the maths…
£20 bn last month in 30 days
30 days = 720 hours
720 hours = 43200 minutes
43200 minutes = 2592000 seconds
so “only” £7716 per second.
So the income tax & NI from the median worker would enable UKplc to stop borrowing for about one solitary second.
Yet still some people want to vote for this lot!
39. I’m not against rumours. But I think there was something a bit more organised at work last week. The 3% lead ‘rumour’ wouldn’t have been taken so seriously without the supporting ‘info’ - viz. that the MORI poll was being auctioned among the papers, and that there had been unusual price movements just after the normal publication date of the said poll.
As I said before, it could all be coincidence, but I doubt it. And if it was a ramping op then its success will be likely to embolden its perpetrators to try again….
47. I think there’s a bit of VALUE in that 66/1.
If there’s one thing we’ve learned this last ten years, it’s never to underestimate the wiliness and determination of Peter Mandelson. And I reckon he’d probably quite fancy being mayor.
40 we would be in more than serious doo doo if it were £340k a second
= £20m a minute = £1.2bn an hour = £29.4bn a day = £10,722bn per annum.
Its bad enough at £340k a minute.
47 - is Mandelson not aware of the fact that people really don’t like him?
50 SeanT
The trouble is it requires election.
Lord Mandelson is comfortable with backroom deals, especially in the EU. He is absolutely rubbish when it comes to public image.
52. When was the last time Mandy won an election ? 2005 ?
52 - Clearly not!! Perhaps Ken was smoking something funny before he said Mandy would stand?!
52. He may not be liked, but he is grudgingly respected, unlike almost every other senior Labour politician.
If a Labour guy has to run London, I’d prefer Mandelson to a retread of Red Ken.
That said, 66/1 sounds implausible given some of the names with shorter odds - so you may be right about the value.
56 - not saying I disagree; I just think he’d have a problem winning an election.
54: Nope..he joined the EU in 2004.
I’ve just taken that at 66/1, if he runs it will be 16/1
42
Heat exchangers work now. The fact that they save energy is why there is no Government support. They reduce tax take. Period..
And reduce the major cause of CO2 emission : home heating.
“we could get free and clean energy and transportation. ”
Really?
44. Nice one on dodging the tax. You can improve your earnings still further by utilising the well-worn airport novelist’s technique of plagiarising yourself. Jack Higgins, Robert Ludlum, Alastair Maclean - they all did it. Apparently almost all Jack Higgins books have the same fight in them.
Have you noticed how short their careers were? As soon as hey stopped writing they were instantly forgotten. Are Harold Robbins novels still in print? I used to enjoy the dirty bits in those.
The rumpy pumpy in TGS was a bit subdued though. What happened? Did you lose your bottle? There’s some reet filth in your dad’s books. You should have just ripped some of it off! I mean, what could he have said, really?
I am getting used to the luxury of only paying 32% divi tax on my earnings and paying the missus a salary to, ahem, “do the books”.
61% income tax to Brown so he can p1ss it away on handouts for Smackistan? No thanks.
53. I disagree. Mandelfop has, over the years, become quite adept at frontline politics - notably, he is often the guy Labour wheel out when they have a really bad story to tell. Because he can sell a dud.
Also, he has made himself liked by Labour activists, which takes some charm and schmoozing, given how much he was despised before.
John Prescott has asked Dame Suzi Leather to conduct an investigation into the Taxpayers’ Alliance
http://www.labourlist.org/merry-taxmas-tpa-john-prescott
A clip from that video shown on Sky news. The taliban have better production values.
Shadsy has Mandelson at 20/1. 66/1 seems like a bargain, if only to trade out later
42 If we could just get rid of oil and the internal combustion engine, nuclear power and all, we could get free and clean energy and transportation.
Nice thought, but a little short on practicalities?
64 SeanT is probably better placed to offer an opinion, but doesn’t Dame Suzi Leather sound like a very top-class Hong Kong madame?
64. I would like to put Suzi Leather across my knee and spank her. Hard.
49 - its success measured by the real poll coming out and someone being forced to make a covering bet? Yeah. Success.
What I found a bit perplexing was that firstly people accepted it and then (on both sides) the arguments came out on the basis of that IMAGINARY RESULT that supported their own point of view.
As it was, we got negative swingback. Again.
66 - According to this.
http://www.bettingpro.com/category/Political-Betting/Peter-Mandelson-for-Mayor-of-London-200912210029/
Paddy Power are putting him at 12/1.
66/1 is ridiculous.
64 - hilarious. Prescott asks a Labour party member to conduct investigation into the TPA on the grounds that they don’t like what Labour get up to.
65. fr. You were not the only one to notice…
glenoglaza
The more I see the G Brown Climate Change video link the more I realise what it reminds me of: Those tapes released by the hostage-takers!
67 Make the unemployed run 8 hours a day in treadmills hooked up to the National Grid…
Energy shortage, unemployment, obesity - all cracked with one policy.
It’s easy, this Government mullarkey.
Another thought; maybe Prescott should ask someone to look into those ‘modernisation’ funds paid to the unions…
It’s got to be embarassing for the TPA that they are sponging off the state…..
64 - can we have an investigation into the trade unions on the same grounds: they get taxpayers money and are closely linked to a political party?
47 William Hill, Britain’s second largest bookie, has limited me to a maximum bet of 75p, that’s SEVENTY FIVE PENCE, at 66/1 against Mandy being the next Mayor of London - just how pathetic is that?
72. The important question is surely, will Dame Suzi opine before her quango gets abolished?
TPA - perhaps they could twin them with the Smith Institute while they’re at it.
And WWF and all the others that donated to Labour Party funds prior to ‘97.
I notice Prescott kept pretty quiet on that score.
Dan Hannan - 10 reasons to leave the EU…
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100020456/ten-reasons-to-leave-the-eu/
76
the obvious response by the TPA is to state that if the Government funds them, who else do they fund?
Answer: lots of Islamist militants in London on benefits, lots of schools preaching hate etc etc..
77. One is so close that it can vote on the party leader - the other might er meet up occasionally.
SeanT - anyone sniffing at buying the film rights for your book(s)?
62. There is a famous quote by (I think) Zola or Balzac:
What is the definition of *literary immortality*? About ten to fifteen years.
Almost ALL writers are forgotten as soon as they die or retire - maybe 0.01% of published authors have an afterlife. This goes for the posh ones as much as the hacks. Who now reads CPSnow, once perhaps the most admired novelist in Britain? Angus Wilson? Even Iris Murdoch?
I went into the biggest bookshop in Bangkok last month - and it is huge, 10,000s of titles. They did not have a single copy of a book by my dad. He wasn’t even on their catalogue.
It’s a sobering reality.
Of course you CAN be remembered, if you are in that 0.01%, but I’d say that this is just as possible through writing commercial fiction as it is through literary fiction. e.g. H Rider Haggard is still in print.
On your other point, you’ll be happy to know there is an entire chapter of pervy sex in Marks of Cain.
78 - I was declined.
32. I was the person who originally posted the 3% MORI rumour and I got the info from a totally different Labour PPC, who is a friend rather than a source. I’m convinced that the rumour was passed on in good faith and that I wasn’t the victim of ‘ramping’. I certainly didn’t mean to cause trouble and I apologised as soon as the actual MORI figures were revealed.
78 - rather shabby but if your a winner at politics and are a marked account for betting off the back of hot news, can you blame them?
78 - I got £11.52 on
Dame Suzi has been a very, very bad girl. She must cower appropriately as she bends over and must say “thank you” at each buttockular impact from the hand of Jet out of Gladiators.
67. Not really. The technologies all exist, according to the scientists. But they find that they get suppressed when they try to bring them on to the development phase. Watch videos of them talking about that, and demoing their discoveries.
http://the-tap.blogspot.com/2009/12/climate-saving-technologies-suppressed.html
86 I seem to recall that you’ve had similar experiences of betting restricted to mere pennies before.
Take it as a compliment
90. Have we passed the lagershed already?
Amusingly the Eurostar proble was apparently caused by the wrong kind of snow.
The old ones are the best.
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/transport/article6963830.ece
90 I keep thinking of Happy Days whenever I hear the name Suzi Leather - there was a character played by Suzi Quatro called Leather Tuscadero…
85. On your other point, you’ll be happy to know there is an entire chapter of pervy sex in Marks of Cain.
And I can’t think of anyone better to write it. As Martin Amis is to w4nking, Tom Knox shall be for deviant rumpy-pumpy.
Re longevity, if I had to pick a current writer who people will still read in 100 years’ time, I’d say Michael Crichton. He’s H G Wells, essentially; patchy but with moments of brilliance.
Philip Kerr started off well but then his books all started to read like movie pitches. I’ve no idea if he’s even still published.
90. Please stop, or I shall be forced to go on empflix.
As an example of literary obscurity following swiftly on the heels of literary fame, check this list of Booker Prize shortlistees and winners.
http://tinyurl.com/clj7a
Who are these shortlisted novelists? The most famous of their day?
R C Hutchinson? Jennifer Johnston? G M Williams? Julian Rathbone?? Not THE Julian Rathbone??
Even some of the Booker prize WINNERS are already totally forgotten. At least by me. David Storey. Stanley Middleton. P H Newby.
Poignant.
90. The lagershed at this time of year is midday on the 20th December. After that, everyone is drunk all the time until January.
In fact I might have a little tot right now, to get me through my daughter’s carol service. And the sleet.
It seems William Hill are getting much tighter these days - I am afraid there system appears to flag up a warning to restict the bet when many of us try to bet with them. Personally I got somewhat annoyed with them earlier today when they only offered a maximum of £25 on a 2/7 bet that the BNP would not win a seat after I had asked for £350 to win £100.
95. Well that’s the problem. You know how in the office there’s someone everyone agrees is probably a dirty old man? Suzi is the same. The name, plus her prim and rather smarmy quangocrat de haut en bas snot nose, all shriek “brothe1-keeper”. Or perhaps she suggests some sort of excruciating exhibitionist off Big Brother.
If I went to parties like that one Tom Cruise went to in Eyes Wide Shut, not that I do you understand, I could imagine bumping into her there, not that I’d ever go.
It’s harder to imagine Jet out of Gladiators in the same circumstances. She’s a bit too wholesome. I just thought I’d namecheck her anyway.
99
One must admit that is rather ‘chicken-like’ of Hills. They appear to offer prices purely for publicity hence why we are all being restricted.
99: WH seems to do account reviews in December, so a lot of people will have got account-limited recently.
Cameron’s plan to remove anti-Tory bias in electoral system ‘won’t work’
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/blog/2009/dec/21/cameron-plan-bias-electoral-system
Did anyone get to the bottom of the change to Betfair premium fees that were highlighted last month?
104. Lose more @ betfair seems to work
104: just another monopoly-abusing increase, it’s not much more complicated than that.
You can get 100/1 on Lord Mandelson becoming next London Mayor on Partybets.com:
https://www.partybets.com/bets.ap?sportName=politics&leagueName=UK&sport=59240&league=117294
I was limited to a £10 bet though.
107 - Now down to 50/1, sorry.
103 Cameron wasn’t though only talking about equal sized constituencies but about larger & fewer plus more regular boundary reviews. While differential turnout will still leave an imbalance the ful proposal is likely to reduce the current structural issues.
101. Red Jester - yes, they should either either withdraw from that particular market or shorten the publicised odds if they are not comfortable with them for bets of a reasonable size.
PfP/antifrank. I think it could be a function of the credit crunch.
I got my ‘Dear John’ from William Hill as a Christmas present in 2008. Several firms that once allowed me to bet to win large hundreds and sometimes thousands now restrict me to small double figures.
When it comes to skinning bookies I am very innovative (for my age).
As I have said before, pb.com needs a beard, a clean skin, who is honest,reliable and loses fortunes to the enemy.
Oh dear - Heather Mills and Bobby Davro booked for Dancing on Ice.
I have to say that whatever else one says about Mills, she’s a fighter - how she can dance/stand up in high heels is a mystery to me. I lost my Achilles reflex in one leg a few years ago and I can’t climb a step ladder without falling off.
Good on Charles Clarke
http://waugh.standard.co.uk/2009/12/charles-clarke-legg-and-underclaims.html
Legg has gone mad with power.
James Macintyre has just posted quite an astonishing story on the New Statesman website. He says that Gordon Brown gave his blessing to Peter Mandelson becoming the new EU High Representative, a job which eventually went to Baroness Ashton. Mandelson, it is alleged, decided that he didn’t want the job after all. Up to now we have all believed that Brown refused to let him go, or that the EU leaders didn’t fancy having him back.
http://iaindale.blogspot.com/2009/12/did-mandy-change-his-mind-or-was-he.html
Some cheering news from Google.
Astronomic data for today:
Sunrise: 8:03 AM GMT
Sunset: 3:53 PM GMT
Length of Day: 7h 49m
Tomorrow will be 0m 2s longer.
103
Larger constituencies would in theory tend to harm the Lib Dems as well since they rely on localised support for FPTP success.
Does it say anything about this?
115 Get out the suntan lotion. We’re on our way!
111: Just get relatives or friends to open accounts, and give them 10% of profits.
97. That list is hilarious. WTF were they doing listing this?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goshawk_Squadron
Sven Hassel must have been gutted to have been left off.
I couldn’t understand why Midnight’s Children beat The White Hotel. Firstly it wasn’t a novel, and secondly, it was phucking unreadable. I lasted 50 pages. Has anybody ever read it twice? Surely nobody.
Apparently Captain Corelli’s Mandolin is the least-read title ever, in the sense of the percentage of people who bought and finished it, but I can’t recall where I heard this statistic.
I take the same view of Oscar-winning movies. Winning an Oscar for best movie very, very frequently means the movie is a piece of sententious utter cack.
Million Dollar Baby? The Departed? Chicago? Shakespeare in Love? The English Patient? Dances with Wolves? Terms of Endearment? Gandhi? Crash? A Beautiful Mind? Braveheart? Driving Miss Daisy?
I bet we’ve all got those on DVD to watch and treasure over and over again. Apart from those of us who’ve completely forgotten them all.
SeanT-ould I be right in saying that writers like William Golding never go out of fashion, whereas writers like C.P.Snow and Angus Wilson do.
There is a marked school of fiction which is all to do with social class and the comedy of manners and this is the one that has a limited shelf life.
J.G.Ballard commented on this I believe.
I’m pretty new to this political betting lark, but Will Hill do seem to be a bit stingy, even with me.
Woo got a tenner on Mandy.
Now I hope the rumours have legs
‘Lockerbie review may be published’
http://www.publicservantscotland.co.uk/news_story.asp?id=11692
http://www.sccrc.org.uk/ViewFile.aspx?id=293
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_Criminal_Cases_Review_Commission
120. Not sure that’s true. Jane Austen is all about the comedy of manners, and she is arguably the most successful novelist in English literature, in terms of still being widely read and loved 200 years after she died.
She did have a cracking plot, as well, in Pride and Prejudice. Which surely helps. A good story always lives longer than a non-story. Romeo & Juliet is a great story, Coriolanus isn’t. QED
Are there any other hard and fast rules as to what survives and what doesn’t? Apart from a good plot? I’d love to know them!
119. A fair point on the Oscars. Though actually some of those movies are very strong, I reckon. Braveheart is hugely watchable (if nonsense). Shakespeare in Love is excellently witty (and clever). A Beautiful Mind was moving.
The rest are largely bollocks.
114 I think the truth is the EU didn’t want him back - story at time was hazy but it was reported then he wasn’t Mr Popular with his old colleagues nor with France & Germany. So we ended up with Cathy Ashton, appointed temporarily as UK Commissioner until a more permanent one was selected (an appointment that Brown dangled in front of Hoon, who presumably wasn’t even acceptable as second choice after Mandy).
Has anyone seen Gordon’s podcast? It is truly AWFUL - wooden and technically appalling - Gordon does Norman Collier/YouTube from my bedroom would be a fair assessment
121 It ain’t always so - sometimes one can lump on with Hills - who can forget how they stuck to their guns by continuing to offer 4/1 against Labour winning >199 seats at the GE, way ahead of the prevailing market. I suspect it largely depends on whether or not “Sydney”, their top Political Guru is in attendance.
I can only assume that the said Sydney has already left for sunnier climes, armed with his Christmas bonus.
Ouch, just seen BBC’s Roger Harribin on News 24.
He described Copenhagen as ‘pandemonium’ and ‘better if it had collapsed’ instead.
Apparently the lead Chinese negotiator failed to gain entry 3 days in a row - no wonder they took their jumpers home
113. Mystic Mac strikes again!
125 I imagine the resulting By-Election would have been a consideration as well were he ever under consideration.
125.”114 I think the truth is the EU didn’t want him back - story at time was hazy but it was reported then he wasn’t Mr Popular with his old colleagues nor with France & Germany.”
Ted, I think you are right. Wasn’t there some rumblings starting to come out of the EU Parliament about his time as EU Trade Minister when these positions were being carved up? IIRC, this was mentioned in that recent Despatches programme on C4?
But Sean it will continue getting darker in the mornings until the 30th, and that’s why it’s my favourite day of the year - the dark mornings then start to recede.
OK, it’s Christmas, it’s sleeting, I’ve got a festival of carols to get through, and I’m fifty grand richer than I was at noon.
I’m having a gin and tonic.
126. Glen Oglaza said it reminded him of those tapes released by the hostage takers!
“Though I do have two outstanding bets I hope to win, one with ukpaul or st john (I forget which) on Brown staying as leader (I think he will)”
I think that’s stjohn (I hope), my offers of bets seem to be going begging at the moment. Then again, I usually offer them because they are to someone who is being ridiculous and hoping to not bring them back to reality, and it seems to (unfortunately) not work!
Angus Wilson gave me the only “A” for an essay I got at university. It is beyond dispute that he couldn’t be bothered to read it.
To be fair to William Hill, they have Layed some astonishing bets(at the time) which were massive overlays compared to Betfair and all of which no longer look as good as they did at the time.
In my portfolio I have 8-1 LD 20-39 Seats and 5-1 40-49 Seats.
Both bets were struck at a time when the Lib Dem Spread was in the high 40s.
Back in 2007 they Layed 5-2 NOM and bigger (Aaron will remember) at a time when ‘judges’ were saying NOM was odds-on.
136 fr - It must have been your anglo-saxon attitudes that beguiled him.
133 - You’re making poor writers jealous.
Keep it up.
It might make us work harder!
137 - I have a monkey with WH at 7/2 NOM dating from 2006, URW
132 “it will continue getting darker in the mornings until the 30th, and that’s why it’s my favourite day of the year”
Eh? Do you have owl-like tendencies then Chris?
I’m now listening to It’s a Fine Life from Oliver.
Small pleasures, small pleasures
Who would deny us these?
Gin toddies - large measures -
No skimpin’ if you please!
Who cares if straightlaces
Sneer at us in the street?
Fine airs and fine graces
Don’t have to sin to eat.
We wander through London
Who knows what we many find…?
Bravo!
Not for me, the happy home
Happy husband, happy wife..
Tho’ it sometimes touches me…
…For the likes of such as me…
Mine’s a fine… Fine… LIIIIFE!
Hic.
130 Punter, agreed but it had been reported (briefed?) when Mandelson was due to be replaced at end of term, before his return to Cabinet, that Hoon was next Commissioner. His name remained in the frame and reappeared in the rumours of who was getting UK’s post Lisbon Commissioner. That was despite his resignation in the June re-shuffle fiasco.
Wonder if he was being strung along?
124 - Theatrewise comedies of manners actually age relatively well compared to pieces resolutely about contemporary events. Think Sheridan, Wilde, Coward, Orton and, elsewhere, Moliere (currently in the West End updated with la Knightley).
132 are you sure? http://www.timeanddate.com/worldclock/astronomy.html?n=136
116. Happy Winter Solstice! Now we can look forward to the days finally getting longer!
BTW it’s snowing heavily on the edge of north London…
PfP no I just hate getting up in the dark and there’s another week to go before it starts getting better.
133. You’re getting as bad as Gordon Brown, Sean, announcing the same money more than once …
New Labour’s stealth cuts undermining military bases.
Sunday Express Kirsty Buchanan
“Ascension Island – home to an RAF base used to patrol the South Atlantic – could be driven into bankruptcy unless the MoD pays £2.7m in tax arrears.
The row comes just days after a report warned tensions with Argentina over sovereignty of the Falklands are once again on the rise.”
http://tinyurl.com/yaf6f9q
145. Yes, that is true.
Maybe the smaller truth is: What hasn’t aged well is the earnest, British, middle class, socially aware novel of the postwar era.
Evelyn Waugh is still read in all his posh, cynical maliciousness, Alan Sillitoe is utterly forgotten.
If you can make people laugh you have a good chance at immortality. Jane Austen is still, amazingly, very funny in her waspish way. PGWodehouse will be read for many decades yet. Dickens can still make you chortle, sort of.
Wit survives, opinions do not.
146
That time chart does not make sense. For the 23rd December it has sunrise and sunset both advancing 1 second, yet making the day 8 seconds longer.
URW - The LibDems to win 40-49 at 5/1 could yet prove to be a great bet, don’t give up on that one yet. I know PtP thinks they’ll win >70 seats, but I fancy there’s a bit of heart ruling head there.
152 - Note the lack of seconds in the sunrise and sunset column?
ppp polls
97% of people who disapprove of Obama oppose his health care plans: http://tinyurl.com/y9xzv6h
152 Scientists and maths, huh?
Not their best year!
(Unless it was compiled by Druids about 3,500 years ago, of course.)
Erm, the shortest day is today [21st Dec] - I know that because yesterday was my birthday, so always look forward to it getting lighter from then on
Alan Sillitoe ‘middle class’ ? I thought the point about him and others was that they were working class…..and proud of it.
115. I always read this poem on this day. (It is technically superseded because of the pesky Gregorian calendar. St L’s day is the 13th. but still.)
A NOCTURNAL UPON ST. LUCY’S DAY,
BEING THE SHORTEST DAY.
by John Donne
‘TIS the year’s midnight, and it is the day’s,
Lucy’s, who scarce seven hours herself unmasks ;
The sun is spent, and now his flasks
Send forth light squibs, no constant rays ;
The world’s whole sap is sunk ;
The general balm th’ hydroptic earth hath drunk,
Whither, as to the bed’s-feet, life is shrunk,
Dead and interr’d ; yet all these seem to laugh,
Compared with me, who am their epitaph.
Study me then, you who shall lovers be
At the next world, that is, at the next spring ;
For I am every dead thing,
In whom Love wrought new alchemy.
For his art did express
A quintessence even from nothingness,
From dull privations, and lean emptiness ;
He ruin’d me, and I am re-begot
Of absence, darkness, death—things which are not.
All others, from all things, draw all that’s good,
Life, soul, form, spirit, whence they being have ;
I, by Love’s limbec, am the grave
Of all, that’s nothing. Oft a flood
Have we two wept, and so
Drown’d the whole world, us two ; oft did we grow,
To be two chaoses, when we did show
Care to aught else ; and often absences
Withdrew our souls, and made us carcasses.
But I am by her death—which word wrongs her—
Of the first nothing the elixir grown ;
Were I a man, that I were one
I needs must know ; I should prefer,
If I were any beast,
Some ends, some means ; yea plants, yea stones detest,
And love ; all, all some properties invest.
If I an ordinary nothing were,
As shadow, a light, and body must be here.
But I am none ; nor will my sun renew.
You lovers, for whose sake the lesser sun
At this time to the Goat is run
To fetch new lust, and give it you,
Enjoy your summer all,
Since she enjoys her long night’s festival.
Let me prepare towards her, and let me call
This hour her vigil, and her eve, since this
Both the year’s and the day’s deep midnight is.
151 - I’m in the midst of “Don’t point that thing at me” by Kyril Bonfiglioli. How come this author isn’t better known?
154
Ahh !
157. Plato.
Yes, the days start getting longer but sunrise continues to get later for a few more days.
158. You know what I mean: the concerned “kitchen sink” literature so beloved of Guardianistas - it ages very badly.
Yet Waugh lives on. Partly and simply because he was funny.
153. PfP - “I know PtP thinks they’ll win >70 seats”
PtP should note that Shadsy thinks they’ll lose Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk, where Michael Moore has a majority of nearly 6,000.
How can they win >70 seats if they are on the verge of losing seats with 6000 majorities?
157 - Belated happy birthday!
157 - Yes, the shortest day is today but sunrise still carries on getting later for a week or so (sunset also gets later of course, and by more - hence longer days).
I’ve no idea why.
A timely article given the value bets on Mandy for 2012 mayor highlighted above
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/dec/21/mandelson-london-mayor
For what it’s worth, I reckon Mandy is more like 30/1 than 16/1.
I posted that link without really looking at it, ChrisA was quite correct..
yes I’m sure. In these latitudes the earliest sunset in about 12/13th December - the sun will set this afternoon over 2 mins later than it did last Monday. Similarly the Sun will rise on the 30th almost 2.5 mins later than it did this morning. If you want to know the reason why put “equation of time” into wikipedia.
plato, do you have a link to the infamous podcast?
147.
“we can look forward to the days finally getting longer!”
and all thanks to the wonderful Labour government!
167. Yes, 30/1 feels about right. 66/1 was definitely generous.
157 Plato, happy unbirthday to you!
When we were young, I always remember teasing my sister about having the shortest birthday of the year, on 21 December, whilst by contrast, mine is on 23 June, oh yes!
Needless to say, many tears were spilled.
164.
“How can they win >70 seats if they are on the verge of losing seats with 6000 majorities?”
Isn’t that the reverse Stratford on Avon/Westmorland/North Norfolk question?
171. This coming year, which started in Japan…
In the final column in that link it appears to be saying that we’ll be about 10,000km closer to the sun at noon tomorrow than we were at noon today. Seems a big difference.
150.
“a report warned tensions with Argentina over sovereignty of the Falklands are once again on the rise.””
How much is Gordo paying some South Americans to start a war? Desperate men….desperate Maggie measures.
164 Because of differing Constituency situations. The Lib Dems can often be quite divorced from UNS. Remember in Scotland in 92 their vote nationally halved yet they held their seats. All of them. That was an extreme example but if they do relatively badly in Scotland next year dropping a few seats, there is no reason that if Labour are collapsing in England even if they are still holding up better in Scotland that they cannot make compensatory gains south of the border from Labour.
164 Stuart - I agree, 40-60 GE seats is the LibDem betting zone for my money.
170 It’s not up yet on YouTube or Number Ten - will keep an eye out, it was truly terrible.
Many thanks for the My Birthday +1 greetings
180, hope you got something nice, Miss Plato. A catsuit, perhaps
166 - It is because the sun does not pass through the Meridian precisely at noon, due to our elliptical orbit around it.
More info - http://curious.astro.cornell.edu/question.php?number=208
The Two Peters. It is uncanny how every bet I have Layed on Lib Dem Seats has been in the range 40-69.
They will bet 40-44 and 65-69 but the outliers have not been touched.
PtP, I am almost as big a winner on 71+ than even you ! As for 39-, it is my biggest result of the whole shooting match and I can’t give it away.
plasto, thanks for that, couldn’t find it in the usual places.
WTF??? “Don’t bring a gun to a snowball fight!”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/8423705.stm
182 Is there any area of expertise that doesn’t have a local expert on PB?!?!
How fascinating - thanx for that info, will now pretend I knew that all along
178. Punter - … there is no reason that if Labour are collapsing in England even if they are still holding up better in Scotland that they cannot make compensatory gains south of the border from Labour.”
In that case, please list at least 12 seats the Lib Dems are going to win off Labour in England.
PhD in Astrophysics helps
183 URW - unless I’m very much mistaken, that another saucepan lid due from you.
The words candy, baby and taking spring to mind.
Betting Post
Ladbrokes have got a market on Postcodes and No Xmas Snow.
Looking at the met office forecasts and the markets, there appears to be some very juicy odds available.
Rob D indeed and it’s also why a sundial will only tell you the right time on 4 days per year, Christmas day being usually one of them.
186. Plato
Happy Birthday!
188. As I understand it, the same wobble effect happens at midsummer, right? I remember being heartened by that info, when it was explained to me by a boffin, one day in late June a few years ago.
The days get longer AND shorter for a confusing week.
190 - for example?
193, like the polls showed a narrowing *and* lengthening Tory lead.
A polling equinox? [I'm rubbish at this sort of thing, so that's probably the wrong term].
My parents in law have their wedding aniversary today. On the longest night of the year…flithy beggers…
195 A polling solstice?
Labour’s Polling Solstice. AKA Labour’s Poultice.
You see what I did there?
191 - The equation of time is a wonderful thing
195 - Surely, MD, polling equinoxes would be that set of polling percentages per party for which the number of Conservative and Labour seats in the HoC would be equal - the LD’s wettest of wet dreams as it casts them firmly as the party of power without having to worry about being seen to support a party with the lower number of seats as would happen in a Lib-Lab pact with Labour as the smaller party than the Tories.
194 - Liverpool and Bristol are the two I looked at first.
8/15 and 4/11.
197, that’s the fellow.
We should use terms like that. It makes sense, after all.
Er, so what’s an equinox?
Ooh, and what about a polling event horizon, when there’s insufficient time for Labour to escape from the gravity of the Tory’s lead (which has infinite mass)?
202. Labour’s Electoral Singularity.
Bring It On.
202
There is the Polling Paradox to consider : where a vote can be placed twice and double counted even if there is only one voter.
It’s called post voting …
I live next door to the graveyard, literally, as well as metaphorically. It is seriously snowing.
Poor old Prudence Goodwyf is getting pounded like a dockside hooker.
Not guilty,PfP !
204 - Does that make Gordon Labour’s electoral black hole?
Not that it matters but 206 was to 202 not 204 but what the heck….
206, only if he’s infinitely dense
Okay one for those who know more than this poor Chemistry grad.
It is now 3C here but feels colder than yesterday when it was -3C - is it the relative humidity? There’s been no wind to speak of either day.
I’ve just used 8 firelighters to get my woodburner going - 2 hrs of fiddling about used 4 that subsequently went out after 10 mins of flickering.
I was about to go for the nuclear option and use lamp oil on it [that certainly makes it go WHOOSH! for a few minutes if nothing else]
Sean T, exactly. It’s because as the summer solstice approaches the earth is getting slower every day as it gets further away from the sun resulting in true noon getting later every day. The effect isn’t as big as it is in the winter though.
174. wage slave - “Isn’t that the reverse Stratford on Avon/Westmorland/North Norfolk question?”
Hmmm… the Tories are 1/50 in Stratford upon Avon. Are you saying that the Lib Dems are about to win this seat off them?
As we are on the subject of time, and have previously touched on reading matter, can I recommend The Horizontal Instrument by Christopher Wilkins; a rumination on time, love, and the history of watchmaking.
http://www.amazon.co.uk/Horizontal-Instrument-Christopher-Wilkins/dp/1862300712/ref=cm_cr_pr_product_top
209 - You’re even worse with firelighters than I am! I shall be spending Christmas stoking a ceramic woodburning heater.
209
Plato
yes.
Sub zero means little water in the air.
Bet there is more wind as well.
To light wooden fires, stop messing about. Buy a small blowlamp powered by a gas canister. Far safer than paraffin: the last of hot air dries all the wood and sets even coal alight.
I keep our kindling in the greenhouse as it dries out on sunny says..
While we are on the subject of books, can I recommend the upcoming thriller Marks of Cain, by Tom Knox, bought three hours ago by some Italians for fifty K?
http://www.libraryjournal.com/article/CA6712214.html
Scroll down to the K’s for the skinny.
OK, now I am going to my daughter’s carol service, before I reach an infinite mass of annoyingness, and explode in a Supernova of Smug.
Later.
204/207.
“He tasks me! He tasks me and I shall have him! I’ll chase him round the moons of Newbury, round the Angus maelstrom and round Pendle’s flames before I give him up! Prepare to alter course.”
“What hasn’t aged well is the earnest, British, middle class, socially aware novel of the postwar era.
Evelyn Waugh is still read in all his posh, cynical maliciousness, Alan Sillitoe is utterly forgotten. ”
Alan Sillitoe … middle-class!! Only if the middle-class now includes Dennis Skinner and Bob Crow !! The comment tells us more about the reading tastes of SeanT, who clearly has never read any Sillitoe.
But, I’ll leave the defense of Alan Sillitoe to our resident Nottingham-ians — including NPMP.
Oh, I’d forgotten, MPMP knows more about central Basel, Switzerland than Nottingham!
213/214 I’d forgotten how crap slightly damp logs are - I usually buy several pick-ups worth and stow them in my tractor barn - they go like blazes when a year or so old.
I was remiss this year and didn’t backfill - now I’ve got tonnes that are heavy and burn off so much moisture that they give off bugger all heat
Am busy roasting damp logs on top of my stove so the house smells like a bbq! Seems to work if rather anti-social in mid-winter
215 I can’t imagine what made you write a novel about basques.
211
1/50 is generous - free money!
Maples has a 14,000+ majority and IIRC the boundary changes lose Wellesbourne which has Lib Dem councillors
Alan Howarth, the dirty floor-crosser, had a 21,000 majority in 1987, my first remembered election.
115
Incorrect Sean T
tomorrow will be 24 hrs just light any other day…………
A bit of our glorious leader on here http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8423831.stm
221 light=like
178/187
Hmmm… I note that Punter has still not attempted to provide us with a list of at least 12 seats the Lib Dems are going to win off Labour in England.
I wonder why?
224 SD- I’ll start him off. Burnley.
218.Plato, I was far too late getting my logs this year too, kept them outside a bit longer with some covering to see if they would dry out a bit more.
I confidently predict travel chaos in London.
211 - I suspect Wage Slave meant Northavon or something like that.
220 - It is only a 2% return for tying money up for a few months and you have very small residual risks like the bookie going under, or some awful scandal. Although I don’t doubt your analysis, there are probably better ways to spend the money.
221 MTF - Ah, but not every day is 24 hours long:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leap_second
225. URW
Thanks. OK, only 11 to go…
229 - A day is never really 24 hours long :p
229
Yes I wondered if I ought to add in the leap second bit, but didn’t want to overcomplicate matters for tim.
Scotland tops list of world’s most violent countries
“Violent crime has doubled in Smackistan over the past 20 years and levels, per head of population, are now comparable with cities such as Rio de Janeiro, Johannesburg and Tbilisi.”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/article568214.ece
OK, that’s from 2005. Surely Smackistan has improved since then under the benign leadership of the SmackNits? Er, no:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/scotland/article6832489.ece
Smackistan: still a ghastly basket case.
225. Watford … (dons tin hat).
A deal has apparently been done http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/6859423/Gordon-Brown-to-participate-in-TV-election-debate-with-David-Cameron.html
218.Plato, have you got plenty paper/cardboard and kindling to really get the fire going first before applying the logs?
230 - Islington South & Finsbury and Brent Central.
232.
23 hrs 56 mins
235, I hope the formats are decent.
There’s a dilemma over Clegg. If there are 3 debates, I think it’d be fair if he were absent from (probably the last) one. Doubt it’ll happen though.
227 ASOD. In the balance.The first bus jus passed my window after a fifteen minute break.The snow has eased off but an unusual feature is that the vehicles incoming from the North seem to be in worse shape than those from the South.
This substantiates your theory.
Things would be very different under a Labour Mayor !
239 - All we know is that Salmond must be in all of them
Mandelson has been good at selling a dud, but he’s also been a disaster at it. His attempts to smear the tories over the Damien Green affair resulted in him dissapearing for weeks after it spectacularly blew up in his face. His speech at the labour conference may have re-ignited the parties interest in him, but what about the public in general? He’s never contested a dodgy seat in his life and will be going up against a man who’s made a career of being personable. Mandelson isn’t personable at all, in interviews where he’s the business minister he can get away with not answering tricky questions, but can you imagine him up against Boris in a debate? He’d be amazingly bad, constantly interrupting or insulting the person asking the question as he’s done time after time on newsnight or other political shows.
18% of Smackistanis experience abuse by their partner
Since the age of 16, 18% of those who had at least one partner had experienced one of the forms of partner abuse and five per cent of those who had a partner or were in contact with an ex-partner in the last 12 months reported experiencing at least one form of partner abuse in the last 12 months.
http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2009/12/14103249/6
In other news, Scottish youth explain why they’re waiting until they’re 9 to lose their virginity.
241.
” However, the minor parties will be aggrieved if they are omitted and some have vowed to launch a legal battle. “
237 antifrank names five !
Thanks for the pricewise,antifrank. I replied to you on Channel2.
235. Should be interesting, Brown will be awful, stuttering, avoiding questions, talking about the tories etc etc. Cameron will be more assured, as will Clegg as long as he doesn’t go off on a rant.
This is some serious snow.
241. I am leaving work right now, still snowing heavily, though we are up on a hill which may make thing seem a little worse than they are at sea level.
Ken Livingstone has added fuel to the fire that Fraser started with his News of the World column revealing that Peter Mandelson was being talked about as a possible Labour candidate for Mayor of London by saying that he had been warned to expect a challenge from Mandelson. But it strikes me that Livingstone might be engaged in a typically cunning spin operation.
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/5657116/why-ken-is-talking-up-a-mandelson-challenge.thtml
Thrifty or cheap? http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1237505/Thrifty-Sarah-Brown-wraps-Christmas-gifts-newspaper-posts-picture-Twitter.html
224 Not been around. First I do not think the Lib Dems at the moment would breach 70 seats. Merely that it was possible and put forward a possible way how this might occur while being beaten in a seat like B, R & S with a 6,000 majority. It seems others are already listing possible targets. I’ll put forward City of Durham as one contender.
244 Does anyone else think that these ‘major party’ debates could have a big effect on the election performance of the Others? The question is, will it be a positive or negative one..?
The snow has stopped at Westminster.
Party leader debates agreed in principle!??!
252 It would only boost or hit Clegg as he would at the moment be the only one present apart from Brown and Cameron. As you say could go either way.
252 - Could do if Cameron is crap.
Labour voters expect Brown to be crap.
10/3 on Brown to win the debate with PP.
The first one has to be on the BBC doesn’t it?
249. Could well be, despite Mandelson’s years at the top he’s always been a behind the scenes chap, even his return has meant he can hide in the Lord’s and avoid difficult situations on telly. Running for mayor would involve him constantly being under pressure in every interview on a wide range of subjects, plus his complete lack of people skills may come to the for.
Glasgow is Smackistan’s Detroit
Glasgow has long been established as an excellent place to live, work, rest and play. As a major European cultural capital, it is also a great place to visit.
Glasgow has an vibrant nightlife where one can visit any number of restaurants, pubs, clubs and cafes in the city.
For a more restful pace there are 13 free museums and galleries to choose from and with over 70 parks and gardens spread across the city you are sure to find your own personal oasis.
(http://www.glasgow.gov.uk/en/Visitors/Tourism/)
Of course, what Glasgow council’s website fails to mention is that if you are stupid enough to go there you’re also sure to find your own personal bed in Casualty. Glasgow is a city of gaolbirds:
“Offenders from Glasgow City represent a disproportionately large group in the prison population: while Glasgow has 11 per cent of the total 16+ Scottish population, 21 per cent of prisoners are from Glasgow…This is reflected in the imprisonment rate per 100,000 population, which is highest for Glasgow at 337, followed closely by Dundee at 328.”
http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2009/11/27092125/4
Ah, the arc of prosperity!
247.seant, you should see up in the Highlands today, seriously, I am in danger of having a 14lb turkey on Christmas day without the people there to eat it. We are busy trying to work out a plan B in case of this emergency.
250 - shameless PR. ‘Look at those Tories with their silver and silken wrapping paper; we live in paper bag in middle o’ road and use old copies of the Socialist Worker’.
James Lyons from the Mirror says on Twitter that he’s “hearing there will be Xmas poll cheer for Labour later tonight”
Which poll are we expecting?
120. I think Angus Wilson was a truly great novelist and if people haven’t read his books then that is their loss.
His books are not simply comedy of manners - “The Old Men At the Zoo” is apocalyptic. I would say that one of the features of his writing is how much his books vary in style. I’ll admit there was a falling of in quality towards the end as he started to suffer from dementia but “Anglo Saxon Attitudes”remains one of my favourite books.
Victoria Wood is a fan of his writing as well.
261 - The cheer is that there will be none !
Carol service abandoned. Snow and chaos.
Test (whistling innocently):
THE WRATH OF CROSBY
============================
INT. Political Betting BRIDGE
The firefighting continues.
MIKE SMITHSON: Jack W - what’s left?
JACK W (VOICE): Just the batteries, sir. I can
have auxiliary power in a few minutes -
MIKE SMITHSON: We don’t have a few minutes. Can you
give me phaser power?
JACK W (VOICE): A few shots, sir.
DAVID HERDSON: Not enough against their shields.
MIKE SMITHSON: Who the hell are they?
CHRISTINA D: Mike… The commander of the Swingback
is signalling. (a pause) He wishes to discuss terms of
our surrender.
There is a moment. MIKE SMITHSON looks around the battered
bridge, and his eyes meet DAVID HERDSON’s, and PLATO’s.
MIKE SMITHSON: Visual on screen.
CHRISTINA D:(hesitating) Mike -
MIKE SMITHSON: Do it, while we still have time.
CHRISTINA D: On screen, sir.
All eyes go to the SCREEN. After momentary visual
confusion, ROD CROSBY’s face appears, smiling -
MIKE SMITHSON: (dumbfounded) Crosby!
ROD CROSBY: You still remember, Mike. I cannot help
but be touched. I of course, remember you.
MIKE SMITHSON: What is the meaning of this attack?
Where is the crew of the Swingback?
ROD CROSBY: Surely I have made my meaning plain.
I mean to avenge myself upon you, Mike. I’ve deprived your blog
of power and when I swing-back I mean to deprive
you of your life -
EXT. SPACE
We can see Swingback making a large arc as she prepares
to come back for another round.
INT. Political Betting BRIDGE
ROD CROSBY: - But I wanted you to know first
who it was who had beaten you!
MIKE SMITHSON: Rod - if it’s me you want, I’ll
have myself beamed aboard. Spare my contributors.
EXT. SPACE
Swingback continues her slow arc.
INT. Political Betting BRIDGE
ROD CROSBY: (on screen) I make you a counter-proposal.
I’ll agree to your terms, if…if…in addition to yourself,
you hand over to me all data and material regarding the project
called VIPA.
Reactions from DAVID HERDSON and MIKE SMITHSON.
MIKE SMITHSON: VIPA, what’s that?
ROD CROSBY: Don’t insult my intelligence, Smithson.
MIKE SMITHSON: Give me some time to recall the data
on our computers -
ROD CROSBY: I give you sixty seconds, Mike.
MIKE SMITHSON turns from the screen -
MIKE SMITHSON: Clear the bridge.
DAVID HERDSON: Well, at least we know he doesn’t
have VIPA.
MIKE SMITHSON: Just keep nodding as though I’m
still giving orders. Mister Plato, punch up the data charts
of Swingback’s command console.
PLATO: Swingback’s command -?
MIKE SMITHSON: Hurry!
ROD CROSBY: Forty-five seconds!
DAVID HERDSON: The prefix code?
MIKE SMITHSON: It’s all we’ve got.
PLATO: The chart’s up, sir.
ROD CROSBY: Mike!
MIKE SMITHSON: (to ROD CROSBY) We’re finding it.
ROD CROSBY:Mike!!
MIKE SMITHSON: Please, please - you’ve got to give us
time - The…the blog is smashed, the computers inoperative…
ROD CROSBY: Time is a luxury you don’t have, Mike.
EXT. SPACE
Swingback, her arc completed, is coming back.
INT. Political Betting BRIDGE
MIKE SMITHSON: (to himself) Damn.
ROD CROSBY: Mike?
MIKE SMITHSON It’s coming through now, Rod.
DAVID HERDSON: Swingback’s prefix number is thirty-point-
zero-zero.
PLATO: I don’t understand -
MIKE SMITHSON puts on his spectacles -
MIKE SMITHSON: You have got to learn WHY things work
on a betting blog.
DAVID HERDSON: (descends) Each blog has its own
combination code…
MIKE SMITHSON: …to prevent an enemy to do what we’re
attempting; using our blog to order Swingback to lower
her shields…
DAVID HERDSON: (at the weapons console) Assuming he
hasn’t changed the combination. He’s quite intelligent…
ROD CROSBY: Fifteen seconds.
MIKE SMITHSON turns to the screen -
MIKE SMITHSON: Crosby, how do we know you’ll keep
your word?
ROD CROSBY: (on screen) Well, I’ve given you no word to
keep, Mike. In my judgement, you simply have no alternative.
MIKE SMITHSON: I see your point. Stand by to receive our
transmission.
He turns from the screen again, softly:
MIKE SMITHSON: (continuing) Mister Morus,
lock the phasers on target and await my command…
MORUS: (quietly) Phasers locked…
They’re all sweating.
ROD CROSBY: Time’s up, Mike.
MIKE SMITHSON: (dry) Here it comes. Now, Mister Herdson.
CLOSEUP - DAVID HERDSON’S hands punching in the prefix code followed by
other signals.
INT. Swingback BRIDGE
TIM: (stares at his console) Sir - our shields are dropping!
ROD CROSBY: Raise them -
TIM punches frantically -
TIM: I can’t!
ROD CROSBY: Where’s the override?? The override!!
All monitors are haywire now that Political Betting is tapped
in. They search wildly for the right switch, but…
INT. Political Betting BRIDGE
CLOSEUP - MIKE SMITHSON
MIKE SMITHSON: FIRE!
CLOSEUP - MORUS’S hands punching.
MIKE SMITHSON: FIRE!
EXT. SPACE
Political Betting fires at Swingback inflicting heavy damage.
INT. Swingback BRIDGE
A shambles - debris flying; ROD CROSBY knocking to the
deck. He struggles to his feet through wiring -
ROD CROSBY: (enraged) FIRE! FIRE!
TIM: We can’t fire, sir!
ROD CROSBY: Why can’t you?
TIM: They’ve damaged the photon control and the warp drive.
We must withdraw!
ROD CROSBY: No! No!!
TIM: Sir, we must! Political Betting can wait; she’s not
going anywhere.
ROD CROSBY clams as the other holds him; he breaths
deeper.
EXT. SPACE
Swingback turns away.
Political Betting BRIDGE
They watch ON SCREEN as Swingback hauls off.
MORUS: (breathless) Sir, you did it.
MIKE SMITHSON: (enraged) I did nothing - except get caught
with my breeches down. (continues) I must be getting senile.
Mister Plato, you go right on quoting regulations. In the meantime,
let’s find out how badly we’ve been hurt.
The Turbo doors whoosh open as MIKE SMITHSON reaches them.
JACK W stands there, tears streaming down his face;
he holds the body of Midshipman EASTERROSS.
Both of them are covered in blood. He sways into MIKE SMITHSON’s
arms as the others rush forward.
261. It’’s the mirror, they’ll say anything.
What was it Ainsworth was claiming not that long ago?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/afghanistan/6850958/Taliban-have-the-initiative-British-general-admits.html
“The Nato mission has “lost the initiative” against the Taliban but will have the insurgency on the back foot within six months, the most senior British commander in Afghanistan has said.”
“Despite Gordon Brown insisting that some Helmand districts would be handed over to Afghan control by the end of next year Gen Parker suggested it would be “very foolish to start setting deadlines for something as critical as that”.
With more than 100 British troops killed this year the general said it was a “staggering fact” that while the 10,000 strong force represented a tenth of Nato troops but fought 30 per cent of the “kinetic events” and suffered 20 per cent of the casualties.”
Another British soldier seems to have been lost as well
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/afghanistan/6858237/British-soldier-shot-dead-in-Afghanistan.html
Looks like Andrew Porter got the scoop from his Number 10 ‘hotline’..
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8425280.stm
Maybe he has a big red glowing ‘Batphone’ on his desk in the ‘Batcave’ ?
261
Gordon Brown tops poll as most popular Labour PM since Tony Blair?
259. Just stand outside with it for 10 minutes Christina. Someone will steal it from you.
“Lothian and Borders police have seen a 25 per cent rise in shoplifting this year, a figure which has been attributed to the current economic climate.
Strathclyde police have seen a steady rise in shoplifting over the last few years but have also experienced a 6 percent decrease in violent assault this year.
A spokesperson from the Strathclyde police force said that these numbers might be a result of “a reduced night time economy due to the credit crunch.”
http://www.journal-online.co.uk/article/5906-scottish-crime-rate-drops-but-theft-is-up
Isn’t that a classic? Violent crime has fallen in Smackistan, but only because the locals are all too skint to get drunk and then mug someone. It’s an ill wind…!
That spokesman doesn’t get it. Crime is “the night time economy”!! Duh!
266. Everytime he’s said something like that it’s heralded a good poll for Lab - doesn’t mean the poll is in the Mirror. Is Populus due?
225 Oxford East
256- tim; According to the Beeb they’re going itv->sky->bbc
Stewart, Boulton and Dimbelby to host
271. One good poll wouldn’t bring very much cheer, especially after numerous awful one’s.
254 - Labour will play down expectations, Brown will do better than expected but when his performance is analyzed afterwards he will be perceived as the loser.
There are apparently three ‘debates’, but what is the format? Brown doesn’t do thinking on his feet so he will want subjects nailed in advance and will want to neutralize Cameron’s superior debate skills and quick wit.
One would think that the last thing Brown would want is to fight on his record, but we’ll see.
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ukpress/article/ALeqM5haVTag4WIUAJDcBkvlQrPHs1qILg - “Cowell ‘is better known than God’
The X Factor judge topped the poll after more than 1,000 children were asked who was the most famous person in the world. The Queen came in second with God in third place.”
273 - Bugger, I had Boulton or Dimbelbey to host the first.
225 Swansea West
275. He’ll mention the tories a lot and ask Cameron questions, the crowd won’t like that and he’ll get annoyed. At least, that’s what I expect.
Broon is sure to just blow up. He will totally lose it and start spraying sputum all over the camera. He will start by doing that weird Largactil thing with his jaw, and then he’ll grin inappropriately, and then he’ll just….explode.
279 - Makes sense for the Lib Dems and Labour if the Tories have a big cash advantage.
Lets hope red faced Dave makes an appearance.
Birmingham Hall Green
So when will the Scots Nats object to the ‘debate’ format?
I love how the beeb’s title has changed quite qickly from “televised debates agreed’ to ‘Brown faces televised debates’…
Afternoon all
Charles Kennedy alluded yesterday to the significance of the debates on the next GE campaign. There will of course be many betting opportunities associated therewith.
Sky think it’s good for the LDs - I’m inclined to agree but the pressure will be on both Clegg and Cameron to impress while Gordon Brown can be guaranteed to depress.
I agree with tim @ 256 - I reckon low expectations will cut in Brown’s favour.
This has got to be the last desperate throw of the dice by Brown.I
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/Politics/Leaders-Debates-Go-Ahead-On-Sky-News-ITV-And-The-BBC/Article/200912315505945?lpos=Politics_Carousel_Region_0&lid=ARTICLE_15505945_Leaders_Debates_Go_Ahead_On_Sky_News%2C_ITV_And_The_BBC
Blaydon
@265:
I think Plato will be cross that in the future she’ll be a man.
265 - Sunil, you made me laugh anyway
Scotland tops the tables…for divorce, teenage pregnancy, and the clap
“Scotland is staring into the abyss of social collapse,” [said Cardinal O'Brien]. “Too many of our young people are caught up in a maelstrom of drug-and-alcohol- fuelled promiscuity, hedonism, vandalism and outright nihilism…Scotland has one of the highest divorce rates in the western world; we also have one of the highest teenage pregnancy rates and STI statistics, which are both alarming and growing,” he said.
http://news.scotsman.com/romancatholicchurch/Scotland–staring-into-the.5164744.jp
289
286. I doubt it, despite being in power for two years Brown’s ability to seem awkward and gaffe prone in front of the camera is still painful.
The party leader who will gain the most will be Clegg. Clegg is going to get an enormous amount of publicity, more than he would normally expect. For the leader of the Libdems to be placed alongside the other two party leaders will increase his standing considerably.
Burnley
Who will exceed expectations in a leaders’ debate? It’s hard to imagine David Cameron doing so, because he’d need to heal the sick or end world poverty to exceed the expectations of some of his supporters. Gordon Brown has the advantage of low expectations, but then he has recently demonstrated poor persuasive ability, so those expectations seem to be fully justified.
Nick Clegg on the other hand is little known by the public. In the House of Commons he seems shouty, like a over-serious 6th former. A leaders’ debate is a very different format, where he can speak normally. I expect that he will do well, but most of the public will be seeing him properly for the first time. You can get 7/2 on him winning the debate with Paddy Power:
http://www.paddypower.com/bet?action=go_type&ev_class_id=33&disp_cat_id=&ev_type_id=12109&ev_oc_grp_ids=113554&aff_id=
I have just topped up.
I think we are expecting a ComRes poll for the Independent.
The last one a week and a bit ago had 41-24-21
@290:
I want to be USS Political Betting’s very own Councillor Troi.
Which basically means I get to sex with big-foreheaded warriors, eat lots of chocolate, weary a bunny suit and occasionally announce that I “sense pain”.
My life in a nutshell.
Was it only last week that Brown emerged from Little Heathrow clad in a blue suit, untucked shirt, flak jacket and two helmets?
If that wasn’t bad enough, he walks Al Gore into a broom cupboard and youtube posterity. :).
265 Sunil
ChristinaD still looks good in that uniform!
294. Probably, Cameron will get more exposure and a chance to have his say, Brown will still look a wally, Clegg will get more exposure in general and a chance to have the lib dems heard for once.
299.And today he makes himself look like a cross between Max Headroom and Davros in that ludicrous Vidoe Link!!!!
@297:
Given that we’ve got Mirror churnalists ramping this as “good” for Labour, what are we expecting?
I reckon under the circumstances any Tory leade under 13pts could be viewed as an achievement.
297. Ah so maybe that’s down to 10-12 pts. Would explain the tweet…
291 - which one of the Nats has upset you?
You really are on a mission this afternoon
Derby North
298, the empath was the most stupid addition to a sci-fi crew I think I’ve ever seen.
“RAAWWWWRRR! Ral’koth will drink YOUR blood this day!!”
“Captain, I’m feeling… hostility, towards you personally.”
ComRes and MORI really are all over the place at the moment…
City of Durham
307 - A one word rebuttal: Neelix.
Genocide for Ferengi and religious persecution on Bajor would also have been good ideas.
298 I read a post on another site that said lots of Wiki admins were ‘furries’ [peeps who wear fun fur costumes for a kick/feel more normal] and that’s why the entry on this particular fetish gets an easy ride on Wikipedia.
Takes all sorts - I know someone who has snaps of herself with cuddly toys in a photo album and on the walls of her restaurant…
Holborn and St Pancras
201 tim - Good spot on Ladbrokes’ ‘No Snow’ market. I’m on (Liverpool and Leeds, but there are probably others which are equally good).
Leicester South
@310:
Neelix was The Wesley. In seven years, the writers not only never realised that everybody hated him because he was a c*nt, they actually started to use him even more.
I mean, they eventually put Wesley on a bus when he became too hated to live, but Neelix was allowed to live.
But you leave the Ferengi alone. Ferengi = Space Thatcherites.
If the lead is 10 points or more and is being previewed as Christmas cheer for Gordon that would be an indictment of the doo doo they are in. With the Mirror journalist tweeting it must be (if he’s accurate with his tweet) within 10 points.
Surely?
310, Neelix (pervy name, if you ask me) was pretty crap. But not Counselor Troi crap.
Oh, I may’ve thought of an even better one.
Kochanski, in the later Red Dwarf.
I think the debates are a net plus for Labour:
1. Brown would have suffered if he had refused - it would reinforce the lack of inter-personal skills message
2. Expectations for Brown are so low that so long as his asshole remains perpendicular he will exceed them
3. Cameron is assumed to be the better debater, a quick thinker, and winner by a country mile and thus has no upside.
4. Without knowing the format of each debate other than each is 90 minutes (presumably different format for each) Labour will have insisted on minimizing Cameron’s chance to play to his strengths, but will have had to give ground on other things.
Liverpool Wavertree
Are we playing Mornington Crescent?
305. I’m enjoying myself, Floater, not least because there’s no answer to any of this stuff.
I’m off home now - but I’ve been saving the very, very best till last.
Scottish gay syphilitics report contact with up to 240 partners per year (yay! what a find!)
A total of 704 sexual contacts were reported by 179 MSM diagnosed with syphilis during 2008, with cases quoting between 1 and 60 sexual partners during the three months prior to diagnosis.
http://www.documents.hps.scot.nhs.uk/bbvsti/sti/publications/sshi-2009-11-24.pdf, p 23/61
It must be the kilts!
A demain folks.
316. Perhaps - but a fall of say 7% in the lead (to 10%) could be dressed up as positive - though obv. it isn’t.
Manchester Gorton
Living in hope - on the Libdem website announcing the debates the poll question is:
Poll
In the event of Nick Clegg not forming a government after the next election, who do you *least want* to be Prime Minister in a year’s time?
Gordon Brown
David Cameron
315 - The thing that really annoyed me about Neelix is that he could have been really good if he’d been more of a rogue. But that side of him, there to be brought out from the earliest episodes, was hopelessly suppressed.
We should have seen a lot more of Suder. He was a much more interesting character.
I’ve just had an e mail drop into my inbox from Harrods.. Winter sale starts today.. sounds ominous if Harrods are discounting before Xmas.
Newport East
These debates are a farce! They should be based on who will be the Prime Minister after the Election. If we have to stomach Clegg on our screens why not the other ‘minor’ party leaders? You can guarantee that Labour’s mates at the Beeb will have prepared Brown well for it - that’s why they want the last slot for the most impact before voting.
I can not understand why Cameron wants to risk his majority on doing something like this. It can only back fire on him, because people have higher expectations for him to trounce Brown. Furthermore, when he becomes Prime Minister, he will be obliged to do these debates when his popularity may be lower at the next election. It’s a shambles!
Norwich South
NEW THREAD
Taste of Dunfermline
Chunky Norwich
124 “Are there any other hard and fast rules as to what survives and what doesn’t? Apart from a good plot? I’d love to know them!”
I’d say universal themes - particularly human scale ones. Shakey is far and away the best on that imo - though maybe some Oriental equivalent i don’t know about.
Everyone across time and space can understand MacBeth, King Lear, Romeo and Juliet - emo teenagers in 10,000 years will still understand Hamlet (assuming the language holds up) - an aging peasant farmer in China with three daughters 5,000 years ago could have understood King Lear etc.
Austen does the same thing in a narrower vein - the average women’s obsession with relationships hasn’t changed and i doubt it ever will. Austen writes about it better than most (even i like Austen and one of my fave writers is Sven Hassel) and she has an era with nice frocks - which is important.
Orwell - but more politically universal over all time than human-scale universal - though in a way it’s a human story too as the animal farm pig *type* will be exactly the same in 10,000 years time as they were 10,000 years ago.
re 241 RobD give me one good earthly reason why Salmond must be in these debates? I thought we were electing the government of this country rather than some regional debating chamber. As the SNP are only going to be putting up 59 candidates, it’s not going to be them is it?
And finally why not Bootle?
295 Goupillon - Well spotted with Burnley. You must be a real shrewdie.
Bootle = Mornington Crescent
re 313 well here in Brum we’ve had about 5 millimetres of snow since all this started and am beginning to wonder what all the fuss is about.
I think some of you on here are guilty of projecting your prejudices onto the TV debate from PMQs. Surely it will be a different format and more importantly a much different audience.
Most people when they see PMQs just see the selected soundbites that the BBC or whatever TV outlet select. In an election debate this will not be the case especially if it is live, the tories are not going to allow Labour/LD supporters to swamp the auidence if they have anythng about them or indeed if an audience is involved.
There will be no arselicking Labour MPs to ask “freehit” questions - I do think Brown will fail big time. It is lose-lose for Brown.
I think Brown will end up being verbally attacked like Nick Griffin but without the sympathy that Griffin got from some parts of the media for the way QT used a blatently unbalanced audience. Where are the debates going to be held? Glasgow, Liverpool and Newcastle?
If Brown thinks he can get out of it last minute on doctors advice due to retenal problems he will have been sussed by me and many others as Brown likes to go in front of the hot conference lights but bottling a debate last minute on those grounds would be pathetic.
General forum observations.
1.I do genuinely wonder how many people never take the time to read other peoples’ posts before posting their silly selves.
I know I do and I know John Loony does. A forum needs good readers as much as it does good posters.
2. Every forum has the following:
Big givers. Big givers and takers. Big takers.Irrelevants.
Which one are you ?
338. Martin Day welcome back! Not only that, I hope you stay.
265. Sunil Prasannan, whats the matter with you? Where is Master Gunner weathercock on the good ship BP?
The only one to gain from the TV debates will be Clegg, the Pegleg.
While Prescott is investigating the TPA, might I suggest he asks for a long hard look at various dodgy charities linked to Labour.
I pitched what I thought was a great idea for a movie quite recently actually. It was that Labour would win the next election. Unfortunately there wasn’t one movie company that thought this was a remotely credible idea. So I’m back to writing novels. Pip.Pip.