Which Tories will need to watch their backs for Rory?
December 22nd, 2009
Could he take over if it goes pear-shaped for Dave?
I’ve just listened on catch-up to last Friday’s edition of Radio 4’s Any Questions when the newly-selected Tory PPC for Penrith, Rory Stewart, had to stand in at the last minute.
We’ve featured the multi-talented Mr. Stewart before and even though he’s not yet an MP he’s listed by both 
This is a guy with an amazing CV summed up thus by the Telegraph : “The former diplomat has trekked 6,000 miles across Asia; at 28, wrote a best-selling book, The Places in Between, about the walk; was governor of a province in Iraq at 29; and last year, as well as becoming a Harvard professor, was hailed by Esquire magazine as one of the 75 most influential people of the 21st century. Brad Pitt has already bought the rights to his biopic…”
I thought his “Any Questions” performance was impressive particularly when (after about 29 minutes) he managed to tell one of his fellow panellists in the nicest possible way that he was talking rubbish.
It’s hard to see how Cameron can avoid making him a minister and if I was William Hague I’d be worried.
Mike Smithson
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Rory Stewart is basically my hero right now. Will hopefully become Foreign Secretary sooner rather than later.
1st?
I’m halfway through The Places In Between at the moment and can recommend it to anyone - just extraordinary.
Glad you agree with me, Mike. Rory absolutely crushed the silly Lib Dem (Danny Alexander), but did it like a teacher explaining to a special needs pupil why eating soap is wrong.
The most interesting thing was how partisan he wasn’t. If it hadn’t said he was a Tory PPC at the start I doubt anyone would’ve guessed. He wasn’t aggressive at all, but was still assertive. He could go far.
4. MD - “Rory absolutely crushed the silly Lib Dem (Danny Alexander), but did it like a teacher explaining to a special needs pupil why eating soap is wrong.”
Not exactly hard though is it. Alexander is an absolute gift to opponents of the Lib Dems. Easy meat.
If I was William Hague I’d be worried…
Surely Rory Stewart hasn’t been THAT influenced by his time in Iraq, has he?
Yes, the record of Wunderkind in politics is so very good. Just look at Blair!
Lordy! … Wait for it … he’s another flippin Scot!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rory_Stewart
When oh when oh when will you English learn how to govern yourselves?
Do I detect the slightest note of festive mischief in this post from OGH? Methinks maybe I do.
His CV is hugely impressive though. Be interesting to see how he does in Parliament.
One to watch, certainly. If the Tories do win, I’d like to see them get a wider selection of talented people onto their front bench - that has to be in the interests of all of us.
7, what was Blair’s CV?
5, be nice to Mr. Alexander.
Hmm. What is it about Scottish politicians called ‘Alexander’?
Just exactly how f*cking cold is it out there?
Al Gore is so WRONG he is a deviant. A PERV. The Gary Glitter of Anticylonic GLOOM.
Brr.
Is John R the PB identity of columnist John MacLeod? Perhaps “R” stands for “Righteous”?
Judge for yourselves. Here is John R (on this morning’s thread) on the Lib Dems:
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2009/12/22/should-the-indycomres-have-heeded-sir-humphreys-advice/#comment-1357285
… and here is John MacLeod of the Daily Mail on the Lib Dems:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-1233278/SNP-blood-seeps-water–sharks-circling.html
Far to early to tell. To accept the premise of the thread for a moment then the people who should watch there backs are the “Plan B” candidates which are surely at the moment David Davis and perhaps William Hague. However if Rory is that good then surely he doesn’t need or want it to go pear shaped? Can he build quickly enough to be credible to suceed smoothly mid third term? In which case its Boris, Jeremy Hunt or perhaps Osbourne that needs to watch his back.
However its so early. If Osbourne has any sense he’ll make walking into the radioactive core conditional for one term max at the treasury and then another big office of state to broaden his experience ( Browns Mistake). If Boris and Davis have any sense they’ll stay in London/the back benches till things begin to capsize. If Hague has any sense he’ll keep the rubber chicken circuit stuff up for the second members ballot.
If Rory has overcome so many amazing hurdles in his life i’d have thought a spell as Home Secretary would bring him back to earth.
13. Thats devolution for you. Minimum Alcohol pricing was put to Scottish Conference, rejected and the MSP’s have followed democratically decided policy. At Westminister level the minimum alcohol policy was announced via executive fiat by Clegg/Cable.
13. The first sample of writing is superior to the second. So either John R reins himself in on the Mail (if he is the same writer), or he should have a job on the paper anyway.
I have a massive mancrush on Rory Stewart. Is this wrong?
8. Note that Mr. Stewart, despite being a Scot, has enough sense to stand in an English constituency, for the Westminster Parliament. Clearly his ambitions extend beyond potholes in Kilmarnock and postboxes in Kinross.
I find it interesting how many of the leading candidates already have problems - Johnson (seriously?), Hague, Fox, May (too much baggage), Osbourne (Torie’s biggest weakness). They and Stewart are PPs top 6 and hard to rate the chances of any.
17, yes. The term ‘mancrush’ is ridiculous.
12 - how dare you speak ill of Chainsaw Al….
19, May isn’t a candidate. Nor is Osborne (though he isn’t the biggest weakness by a long stretch).
I could see Boris as Prime Minister.
17. If you are not gay, yes this is clearly wrong. He also looks a bit weedy and goofy, to be frank, so even if you are gay it is wrong.
WRONG.
more classic Smithson over-hyped piffle.
23 - He doesn’t just look goofy in that picture. He looks like Goofy.
12.
“Al Gore is so WRONG he is a deviant. A PERV. ”
Remind us Sean, in which Glitter bar in Bangkok you bumped into him?
After the next election there will be a massive intake of new MPs and many of them will be young and very talented. Unlike the last large intake which came predominately from the public sector with Tony Blair this group is much more diverse.
The Tory candidate I am helping in East Renfrew is a high quality candidate who compares well with a career politican such as Jim Murphy. It is a good story to tell these days when your candidate has done real work.
When I say candidates I’ve just listed the top 6 in the betting.
Boris has played a very shrewed game but I think to many people regard him as a buffoon to win an election as leader of the cons. mayor of London is one thing, PM quite another
That should be ‘too many people’
24 - I have seen three posts of yours, all of which have been abusive of our host. Even if your criticisms were accurate (which they are not), that would be appalling manners. Just what are you trying to achieve?
16. SeanT , you have to be kidding , John R is one of the worst posters on here and objectionable to boot, little other than puerile drivel from him.
28, Boris could be what the country needs. His very nature would compel ministers to run their own departments, he’s likeable and witty and intelligent.
A Merry Xmas to Seant
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1237763/Celtic-League-demands-investigation-media-groups-calling-Cornish-inbred.html
Errr Cider swilling? Cornwall is a beer county!
13.
“the best performance any LibDem leader can aspire to is to obtain all the votes of every sanctimonious tossy-arsed mediocre nonentity in the land”
That is John R ‘coming out’ for Nick Clegg then? Or has he some similar friends?
25.
Rory Stewart:
http://www.alexross.com/Goofy%20Rogerson.jpg
Goofy:
http://tinyurl.com/ygdzbfw
28 - Candidates for next Tory leader: I’d suggest the following for serious consideration:
1) Liam Fox
2) Philip Hammond
3) Chris Grayling
Others at the moment are just too remote contingencies (Jeremy Hunt is one to watch too). I don’t think that either William Hague or George Osborne would like the role, which is just as well because both would be pretty poor at it.
36.
1. Too rightwing
2. Too boring and dessicated
3. FFS
Hutton just confirmed on R4 PM that he said Gordon would be ‘an effing disaster’ according to Waugh.
I wouldn’t say it was “wrong” in an absolute sense to want Rory. He does have a certain “face a mother could love / Intense Oxbridge love me for my mind not my body” thing going on. You could see him reading latin text you and you swooning.
37 - Oh, you spoiled my “set tim off down a favourite line of discussion” post. I’m glad to see that you can’t spell desiccated either.
It depends to a great degree what the Tories foreign policy position id likely to be and whether Stewar quickly becomes a maverick or not.
I can’t see him advising Cameron to parachute into Georgia again.
If I was William Hague I’d be worried…
I would too.
Silly question though, if I was William Hague I’d be too lazy to worry.
Nick Herbert’s name is worth mentioning. How much would a gay Tory leader wind up lefties?
Agree Rory will make a terrific Foreign Sec.
o/t Classic interview with Jhn Hutton on R4s PM which is bound to replayed. After some delicately applied pressure from Eddie Mair Hutton admitted he did say he thought Gordon would be an effing disaster! Kudos.
I see from The Times reporting on the debates at election time, that Discussions will resume in the new year to finalise detailed arrangements for the debates
That’s when the fur will fly …….
33
“‘I felt ashamed that the BBC could blatantly depict the Cornish as inbred fools, thieves with limited exposure and brain power.’
Is that the Mail of the BBC confusing Cornwall with East Lindsey/Bacup/West Hartlepool…?
36 Really? Fox too hardline, Hammond too dry and unsympathetic, Grayling - nope.
36 Really? Fox too hardline, Hammond too dry and unsympathetic, Grayling - nope.
41. I think Cameron will probably end up being far more nuanced on foreign policy in office than in opposition. Being in possession of the full facts, and a hell of a lot more opinions tends to do that.
27. jono - “The Tory candidate I am helping in East Renfrew[shire] is a high quality candidate who compares well with a career politican such as Jim Murphy. It is a good story to tell these days when your candidate has done real work.”
Richard Cook is one of the few decent candidates the Scottish Tories have. Just compare him to the laughably weak candidates in Edinburgh South or Edinburgh South West.
Shame he’s not gonna win though.
Before today other than having heard his name as a potential candidate I hadn’t taken much notice of him. I suspect that’s true of most people.
A brief search of youtube proves he has considerable insight to the Middle East / Afghanistan/ Pakistan etc but what about the rest? It’s all very well being more than capable in one sphere and it’s all very well taking on the sort of journey he did but to take the leadership of a political party he would need much more (thats even if he wanted it).
What are the rest of his politics? Is he a centralist or a localist, is he a free marketeer or not. What value does he put on public services etc etc? It is premature, to say the least, to talk about whether or not he is leadership material or not.
33 - Google “Norfolk” and “inbred” and you get over 22,000 hits. The Cornish are lightweights.
I must say having been very impressed by his numerous appearances on C4news over the last few years, I was amazed to find out that he was a tory - just seemed far too intelligent. Regretably, however, I think the fact that he is intelligent and independent-minded means that he is unlikely to progress very far. Compare, for example, Frank Field’s career in the Labour government.
Let’s face it, the man is a geek. Geeks are incredibly useful if handles correctly. But not leadership material. Too much trees, not enough wood.
Rory was very good on AQ and got a good response from the audience. I was struck by how he described meeting people whilst walking across the constituency (you serious, it is very hilly!). He certainly has that all-action man theme in his life, but with a very serious intellectual background. But he has to become an MP. Lets see how he performs on TV. Secondly his accent (which is very posh) may count against him.
BTW. John Hutton has admitted to saying that Brown would be an (expletive) disaster on PM. The interview is a classic.
Have just had my first Tanqueray and tonic. Bizarrely, my day long hangover has disappeared for the first time since 10am.
So THAT’S the answer.
36 - Everyone spots the fact that you are joking with 3.
Which says more than I could.
43, 54 - Is that tomorrow’s main political story sorted then?
51.
“Google “Norfolk” and “inbred” and you get over 22,000 hits.”
…and that’s just the turkeys. The ones who voted for GideO in drag in the recent by-election.
42
With a surname like Herbert nah! don’t think so, which is why Ed Balls will never be leader of the Labour Party.
Grayling? gotta have hair, although he could do a Mickey Fab.
From the Spekkie.
The Daily Mail sets about David Cameron in its editorial today. It accuses him of “insulting voters’ intelligence”, tells him to “avoid the PR men, spivs and trashy celebrities with whom he has taken to mixing” and advises him to “spend less time with his spin-doctors, worrying about his image and trying to be all things to all men.”
The Mail matters. Privately Tory strategists admit that its savaging of Cameron’s shift in European policy played a considerable part in depressing the certainty of Tory supporters to vote, one of the reasons for the party’s lead narrowing in the polls. If the Mail was fully on board with Project Cameron, it would shore up the Tory base and leave Cameron freer to concentrate on wooing swing voters.
There are a couple of reasons why relations between Cameron and the Mail are strained. One is that Cameron is culturally a very different figure from Paul Dacre: note the editorial’s reference to “PR men, spivs and trashy celebrities”. By contrast, Brown’s personal character meets with Dacre’s approval. Another is that the Tory communications team have decided that their top priority is keeping the BBC and News International happy, something that infuriates Associated. Also, the Mail does not like to look it is following the pack. When The Sun attacked Gordon Brown for his handwriting and spelling mistakes in a letter to the family of the fallen, the Mail rode to Brown’s defence.
The Tories will need friends both during the election campaign and in government, where they are going to have to do a lot of unpopular things and also some very unconservative ones. If the Mail is regularly attacking a Cameron government, it will make the media atmosphere just that more difficult for Prime Minister Cameron. The Tories would do well to spend time in the New Year trying to improve relations between them and the Mail.
Lovebomb time??
51. Actually I believe my second homeland (Herefordshire, where I actually grew up - my family moved from the southwest when I was very young) can claim the inbred bragging rights.
A friend of mine is a health specialist in Herefordshire, and he says rates of incest there are higher than anywhere else in the UK.
55. For a recovering heroin addict you aren’t half girly about hangovers.
35- Actually, he looks a lot like Gilligan:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/scotland/islandblogging//blogs/005630/images/gilligan.jpg
re 24. I’ve been unable to verify your email address. Please contact me if you wish to continue posting.
36 antifrank - It all depends on the timescale. If Cameron were run over by the proverbial bus in the next few months, Hague would be a shoo-in (provided he was actually prepared to take it on, of course). But, IMO, neither Hague nor some of the other figures sometimes mentioned (such as David Davis or Liam Fox) would have any chance at all in a leadership contest in, say, five years’ time. And if you look forward to the (far, far more likely) scenario of a change of leader in ten or more years’ time, it’s anyone’s guess, frankly.
With the one exception of the Blair-Brown transition (hardly a good precedent!), it would have been extremely hard to identify the next leader of a major party that far in advance, since the days of Churchill-Eden.
There was one thing that did further impress me. He’s recently moved up to the constituency and proceded to walk around it in order to meet as many constituents as possible.
I can’t see him being much more than a back-bencher at first. But he has got something about him.
Yellow Sub I have posted a thought on your debate points on the previous thread - I took too long sorting out the grammar.
You may be interested or not, but I will not repost here as that can be tedious.
61. Hangovers are worse than cold turkey. FACT. When you come off smack it’s like a bad cold - you just take to your bed for three days and sleep and twitch and sweat. Job done.
Hangovers have a particular useless maudlin quality, not quite bad enough to justify a Duvet Day, but bad enough to immiserate.
Haha, BBC story misses out a crucial word:
“John Hutton admits ‘Brown disaster as PM’ prediction”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8426050.stm
I can’t now remember when I first cam across RS’s name but I am sure by this time next year everyone will know him. Both ‘Places’and Occupational Hazards’are stunning reads.
O/T. Boulton & Co’s caption contest is a PB.com favourite image:
http://blogs.news.sky.com/boultonandco/Post:eb6e3248-0c18-40b1-8ec2-fc6d95221b9e
60.
How many Kashmiris and Sylhetis are there in Herefordshire?
To an Englishman, inter-cousin sexual congress is often considered a wee bit strange. To some other cultures well-represented in the UK population it is quite normal.
64 - As you say, it’s hard to see who’s going to be the next leader if David Cameron is a successful leader. I do think that Liam Fox is worth a punt on the basis that if David Cameron’s tenure ended in failure, the party would look for a change and he would represent it.
Philip Hammond has the brains and has yet to form a public image, so is perhaps a worthwhile long range bet if he can get himself a halfway decent persona. He’s likely to be around for a while.
Chris Grayling is perhaps more speculative
I shall be a bit more subtle next time I lay bait.
Pure guess but after watching some youtube clips of a (very interesting) talk he gave i’m not sure if he’s interested in politics as a career or whether it’s more related to getting a higher profile for various causes.
68 - Not in the transcript they don’t…
“Could he take over if it goes pear-shaped for Dave?”
The Lagershed must have been early in the Smithson household today!
Yes SeanT Hare of the Dog works for some hangovers. If you have a likely three day hangover then it wont work - but you still feel like shit but deffer the pain!
If Gordon brown was an alcholic he would deffer the pain until the day after he died!
I am a seasoned bolloxer but i really dont know how alcholics do it every day, day in day out. They must permeantly feel like shit! 
68. What a very helpful diversion for the press. Let’s all assess how big of an effing disaster Brown really has been.
I’ve always liked Hutton!
Happy Christmas.
36.antifrank, none of those three would get my vote. But then I thought that Huhne would be the better Libdem leader as well.
70.
You’d have thought he’d have ended up with something more interesting than a pic of the PM on his way to a meeting of the PLP.
“Occupational Hazards” was a terrific book, and his write-ups of Turquoise Mountain are fascinating. My reading is that he understands how to deal with complex situations with minimal resources and respect for people. Useful skill I’d say.
77 - None of them would get my vote either! In particular, if Liam Fox became leader, I couldn’t imagine voting Tory for a generation. This is not about my personal preferences, but about what might happen.
71. That’s a fair point. Probably somewhere near Birmingham or Bradford is now the British capital of Tupping The Cuz.
Though we are ignoring the strong claims of the Scilly Isles.
75.
“Hare of the Dog”
MD into interspecies sexual congress? Might explain what he’s been up to in his absence.
“They must permeantly feel like shit!”
I hope Martin rolls his sleeves up before he goes out feeling.
John Hutton interview is here….
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/pm/2009/12/john_hutton_tells_pm_i_said_go.shtml
The admission starts 7 minutes in….
54. He will win P&B by about 12,000, despite a bit of dis-concern amongst some activist (who, in P&B and very active anyway).
The fact that CCHQ allowed Rory to take part in AQ, shows they have him lined up for something special.
59
“The Tories will need friends both during the election campaign and in government, where they are going to have to do a lot of unpopular things and also some very unconservative ones. If the Mail is regularly attacking a Cameron government, it will make the media atmosphere just that more difficult for Prime Minister Cameron. The Tories would do well to spend time in the New Year trying to improve relations between them and the Mail.”
Wrong way round. the Mail will need friends, It has none.
Some time in the next 5 years Dacre will be regretting his support of Labour when he wants and needs help.
He will of course get none..
I suspect “revenge is a dish eaten cold ” is engraved on Cameron’s heart.
84:
“P&B and very” should be “P&B arent very”
60: A friend of mine is a health specialist in Herefordshire, and he says rates of incest there are higher than anywhere else in the UK
Not true. He may have been mistaking the local women and the local sheep though….
Actually, it’s not true at all. The Forest of Dean is in Gloucestershire.
80.antifrank, I know, but if the Tory party went in that direction they would be going backwards. Would be like picking Brown after Blair, or Campbell and Clegg after Kennedy.
49. Stuart.
I am glad you are so sure. Do you want to place a side bet on this?
What do you have against Neil Hudson in Edinburgh South? Is it because he is a vet and you hate animals?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/nickrobinson/2009/12/hutton_brown_disaster.html
83 - If I were Gordon Brown, I’d be smashing a Nokia now. That’s completely gratuitous by John Hutton, he knows it’ll be a big story and it’s all so pointless.
Perhaps Hutton said that Brown was an even bigger effing disaster than he expected.
It is surely time for OGH to do a thread on a new assault on GB by the Blairites and Brown being forced out pre-election?
87.
“He may have been mistaking the local women and the local sheep though….”
The SAS do that a lot. As do the Ozzie bar staff in Leominster.
90. Must be a resignation issue, if for nothing else, to retain a slither of self respect.
Liam Fox is particularly unappealing, a core vote strategy choice at best (and a different core than Cameron at that). Stuck on a train at Surbiton at the moment, points failure, they’d better get a move on I’ve got a show to see at 7:30.
Once more unto the Groucho, dear friends, once more…
Ta-ra for now.
95 - Hutton went to the back benches at the same time as the Euro disaster reshuffle as well as announcing he was leaving Parliament. He was actually quite a good Defence Secretary. His calm and rational attitude was a benefit to Brown and that will not help when Afghanistan continues to be a problem.
98. Oops, i missed the ‘former’ bit from former defence secretary….
Hurray, trains moving at last! Thanks for the mobile version to keep those of us entertained who are on the move,
66. Thank You. I think that’s an eloquent summary of why I may be wrong. I’ve not reacted as sharply to a political event this strongly since I threw my remote control at Nick Robinson ( Well the TV screen ) on that saturday of the cancelled election. It seemed self evident that Gordon had just spared the Conservative party the historic 4th defeat that would have menat they couldn’t stay proper Tories.
I accept that the result of these debates are much more open to debate and that they’ll be a process not an event. However this feels just as big. An ancient duopoly voluntarily giving up its status. Being the only two that can ever win is a licence to print currency or the Commission to forgive sins.
Its an ancient power and I can’t understand in my little world why you would surrender that unless like the £10 Franchise you think you need to expand the status quo in order to preserve the status quo.
We’ll see.
Perhaps I’m just annoyed I was going to do my Review of the Lib Dem year tonight and now I’m going to have to rewrite it!
Off to battle with snow devasted public transport.
Hutton is de-mob happy as he’s standing down at the GE so can say what he likes.
What stands out to me is his counter-measures ‘praise’ is so feeble - Gordon works very hard… so what!
If Labour go entirely negative in their GE campaign (which they presumably will), the Hutton story would make a great poster for the Conservatives:
“It would be an absolute effing disaster if Gordon Brown was PM”, John Hutton, Labour MP since 1992, former Defence Secretary and Business Secretary.
Five more years of Brown? No thanks. Vote Conservative.
and if you google ‘Tories inbred’ you get more than 40,000 entries.
He would make an excellent Foreign Secretary in the de Villepin mode but I can’t see him as Tory leader. By the time Cameron goes the Tories will probably be heading for opposition anyway and I doubt Mr Stewart would want the leadership in those circumstances. My tip for next Tory leader - Liam Fox in about a decade!
At least Hutton had the courage to admit he was wrong about Gordon Brown.
I think Stewart’s comments on Afghanistan on Any Questions were beautifully put but dangerously wrong.
If you review what he was saying, it was that threatening withdrawal is not an option and shouldn’t be used as leverage with Karzai. That’s simply wrong in my view.
Jeremy Hunt will be the next Tory leader.
96. Stuck on a train at Surbiton at the moment, points failure, they’d better get a move on I’ve got a show to see at 7:30.
I am sorry to hear it. But we must just accept that in the years to come, trains becoming immobilised by globally-warmed points is going to happen with increasing frequency.
106 Richie - Hardly an enthusiastic endorsement:
My opinion has changed of Gordon. I think he has - and certainly, in all of his dealings with me, showed nothing but, sort of, a great deal of support and help during my time as a minister. So I personally have no criticisms of Gordon’s performance as prime minister at all. I think he has been a tremendously hard-working man, who has really put, as I said, his heart and soul into it.
All of which may be true, without the original comment being incorrect in any way.
83. Hutton knew exactly what he was doing. No attempt to deny - just a little footsie with Eddie. No doubt Gordon is now under sedation and the BBC will tread carefully. But it was delicious listening. One of those rare moments.
103. We are compassionate Conservatives: Tax rises for millions of families. Tax cuts for millionaires.
Going to Eton gives people like Stewart the confidence to do great things, a confidence denied to the rest of us.
Hunt? Fox? Grayling? All good arguments for ensuring Cameron has a good grasp of the Green Cross Code, and for fitting public transport with compulsory speed limiters.
So.. these schools should all be closed down, Like Loretto’s?
112 the tax rises Richie are the Nat Insurance for millions and the IHT that millions will be forced to pay.
106. He was right then and wrong now.
108 - Hunts expense claims show he either has an honesty problem or an intelligence issue.
118 - Only one or the other? I can tell that you’re being seduced by the spirit of Christmas.
118 - That is grossly unfair, Tim. He could easily suffer from both.
112 Richie - Here’s another poster idea, inspired by your 112:
“We are intensely relaxed about people getting filthy rich” - Lord Mandelson of Foy in the county of Herefordshire and Hartlepool in the county of Durham
Five more years of Labour? No thanks. Vote Conservative.
We can’t know who will be the next Tory leader, it is just too far in the future. I was impressed by Rory Stewart’s uptake of an obviously unfamiliar subject when I met him at a house party about three weeks ago.
I don’t know if PBers are aware that his Lib Dem opponent is to be Peter Thornton who recently won a seat on Cumbria CC from the leader of the Conservative group. When a link was posted to his website I recall one PBer asked if he was John McCridick’s (sp?) brother.
On leadership issues, who is to replace Nick Clegg next year ? I understand that electorate willing Tim Farron has made it clear that he is available.
Assuming the tories win the next election when is the next leader likely to take over - in 2015 after a defeat (next leader is currently an mp). In 2019/2020 after a defeat (next leader is either a current mp or becomes one in 2010). In about 2022 in an arranged hand over or a coup (as above). In about 2024 after a defeat or in about 2026 when dc retires. Only in this scenario does the not an mp by this time next year candidate come into play. So in all likelihood the next leader will hold or win a seat at the coming election.
122 - Naughty! I would have thought that any result in which the Lib Dems secure more than 40 seats will be OK for Nick Clegg.
108 - Unlikely, I think once Cameron is gone the Tories will make a clear move to the Right and Fox is young enough to be the standard bearer of that wing of the party at that time without being too extreme.
“Could he take over if it goes pear-shaped for Dave?”
No. But he *might* take over if it all goes right for Dave.
The timescale’s far too short for him if it goes wrong. Stewart is at least a second term replacement and probably a more viable third term replacement - but goodness knows who else would be in the frame then.
125 Fox is 49. He’ll be close or over 60 if matters go well for Cameron. Given the demands of the media it would take exceptional circumstances for an over 60 to make it to the top position these days. If it is from that wing the next Leader will arrive there’ll be other candidates by then surely.
123. Experience is becoming less highly valued. It used to be rare that someone would have less than fifteen years in the Commons before becoming leader but Major was an MP for only 11 years when he became PM. Of opposition leaders (where admittedly, a party can take more of a chance), Blair had been an MP for 11 years and Cameron only four and a half when they became leaders of their respective parties.
Even so, I’d be very surprised if a Tory in the 2010 intake took over from Cameron while the Conservatives are in government before about 2017.
tories lose 14 seats on UKPR Average:
CON 40
LAB 28
LIB 19
CON maj. 36 seats
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/
1% swing = hung parliament
And to finish my post…
But for it to be a 2010mp dave would surely.need to do 2 full terms atleast
129 Yes Gabble. But you forgot the other half:
1% swing = hung parliament OR Conservative majority of 80.
Which is more likely?
38 - they played the interview where he admitted it on “5 Drive” tonight - after much squirming he did indeed admitit. A classic radio moment
129. Or: 1% swing = Tory majority of 80 (excluding tactical unwind)
132
The truth will out, in every sense of the word.
129 “CON 40
LAB 28
LIB 19
CON maj. 36 seats
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/
1% swing = hung parliament”
I really don’t know why gabble and labour fans think that a hung parliament would mean some kind of victory for them and a reprieve from opposition.
Such an outcome would mean another early election and all post-war experience shows that the party coming up but not quite making at the first go, is pushing at an open door next time.
There is no precedent for the party going down (and just hanging on, whether through a hung parliament or otherwise) for recovering and going on to win the second election.
Of course, it would be sub-optimal for the Conservatives but it would represent failure and little hope for Labour.
Think 1950/51 and then 55.
Think 1964 and then 1966.
Think 1974 February and then 74 October.
“Labour’s campaign war chest given £2.25m top-up”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/dec/22/labour-campaign-war-chest-2-25m
135. Although the Liberals did last out for another five years after 1910 and that only ended because of the unusual circumstances of WWI.
That said, they never regained power and within forty years their entire parliamentary party was coming to Westminster in a taxi.
136. You’ve got to love the lack of self awareness here:
Blunkett said: “We know that those with a vested interest in the election of a Conservative government are pumping money into the Tory coffers.
“Our job is to ensure that the voice of the people, not just those with the power of privilege, is heard through to polling day.”
The latest large donations to Labour came from Lord Sainsbury, the former science minister, and financiers Nigel Doughty and Sir Ronald Cohen.
Sainsbury and Doughty gave £1m each while Sir Ronald donated £250,000.
On the “Cameron has most to lose from the debates” theme - could it be him thinking very long-term?
I accept that the thought that if Clegg is successful, it could damage Labour more than the Tories, and this must have been an element in his calculations. As must “it’s the right thing to do” and “I can’t go back on it now”.
But it’s also true that eventually Cameron’s (presumptive) administration will lose support and a new challenger will arise from the Opposition - as Blair did for Labour and Cameron himself did for the Tories. Blair refused a debate from Major, as Blair was in a similar position - he had the momentum, Major was the representative of a moribund and failing administration and had nothing to lose. Had he accepted, however, it’s highly probable that it wouldn’t have hindered him in any way - and now, with a precedent set, Brown would have been guaranteed a debate, when the tables are turned.
If Cameron accepts, the precedent is set and, when the tables are eventually turned, the incumbent (presumably) Tories will be able to cite it to force a leaders debate in a time when they will desperately need it.
It’s an idle thought. -shrug-
“…the household savings ratio in the third quarter rose to 8.7% of income, compared to 7.6% in the previous three months.
That’s a surprisingly high number - the highest in more than a decade. Just 18 months ago, households weren’t saving anything at all.”
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/stephanieflanders/2009/12/small_difference_britains_third-quarter_gdp.html
140
Gabble, thats because they understand what Brown has done to the country.
on topic:
please, please, please………..
and re read Kevin Lancaster at 122 (come on Kevin it’s about time you dropped this silly “A View from Cumbria” lark…..especially when some might still regard Sedbergh in Yorkshire and Kirkby Lonsdale in Lancashire).
Rory………I wish him well. I suppose that it’s a slight pity that the newspapers reported his walk across the constituency as “to let people meet him”! In my book the humble (yes, I have been known to do “humble”) message would have been for him to meet local residents (a bit too pointed to use the word “voter”).
Penrith & the Borders……isn’t that the same as Westmorland & Lonsdale?
Up thread it was suggested that Rory the Tory was going to win by over 12,000! What would be a good sporting bet might be if Shadsy takes P&theB and W&L and puts up some prices for an aggregate vote.
Now how many of you Blues would risk a few shillings on that one?
Finally, have a look a Pete Thornton’s Blog (he and Rachel Cable - yes, wife of Vince - have a similar interest in Dexters)…..and remember that up here in Cumbria we have a Con/Lab administration at the County Council, so the message is Vote Gareth/Rory Get Stuffed with another 5 years of Labour!
136.What a completely hypocritical article that is.
It attacks the Tories for getting bankrolled by millionaires,who in Blunketts word”have a vested interest”,then goes on to list the Labour backers as Lord Sainsbury,and two other “fiananciers”.
I take it then they don’t have a vested interest in Labour getting re-elected?????
142. Ian Stewart: and re read Kevin Lancaster at 122
Who? I can’t find a post from a poster by that name anywhere in this thread.
136 “Nigel Doughty, born in 1957, is the chairman and co-founder of Doughty Hanson & Co, a European private equity firm headquartered in London and with offices throughout Europe.”
Just the sort of person that the Labour Party loves…and its voters hate.
He should have spent the money on another player for Forest instead.
Ian Dale has an exclusive:
“EXCLUSIVE: UKIP Tries to Muscle in On TV Debates”
http://iaindale.blogspot.com/2009/12/exclusive-ukip-tries-to-muscle-in-on-tv.html
From the Guardian article. Something that sums up Labour v Tory in the economics debate:
“In September, Labour’s debts of £9.8m were more than double the Tories’ £4.2m.”
60. At least they keep it to themselves.
147, at least Labour’s consistent
Nick Assinder opines on the year passed and the year to come in the world of politics:
http://www.epolitix.com/latestnews/article-detail/newsarticle/farewell-2009/
136, Gabble:
That article includes one of the best anti-Labour juxtaposiitons of 2009:
“Blunkett said: “We know that those with a vested interest in the election of a Conservative government are pumping money into the Tory coffers.
“Our job is to ensure that the voice of the people, not just those with the power of privilege, is heard through to polling day.”
The latest large donations to Labour came from Lord Sainsbury, the former science minister, and financiers Nigel Doughty and Sir Ronald Cohen.
Sainsbury and Doughty gave £1m each while Sir Ronald donated £250,000.”
Brilliant! Labour’s idea of people power = three very wealthy men giving over 65 times what my public sector worker mother earns (gross) in a year!
Simply classic. Is the Guardian *trying* to undermine the campaign?
Vote Soup Dragon!
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/entertainment/8425387.stm
122. A View from Cumbria December 22nd, 2009 at 6:31 pm
I dont think Tim Farron has much chance of being re-elected. Lets face facts, the Tory incumbant in 2005 was the personification of the “Nasty Party”. I remeber once working near his desk and thinking he was nob, a cnut and a tw@t!
The last time i saw him i think i convayed my inner thoughts to him through the look in my eyes and facial features - Like Carmeon does to Gordon Brown sometimes and SeanT picked it up! 
I think it funny! 
I know I have been away for a while and LD have been able to post these adolescent fantasy of them holding on to seats they just managed to pip the Tories in 2005 but we live in a different world to 2005 in purely electoral terms!
I think most LD MPs who were elected by gains off the Tories in 1997,2001 or 2005 will have an uphill struggle hanging on especially the LD MPs with majorities under 4 to 5,000. Interestingly the LD MPs like John Hemming or the Lib Dem in say Cambridge have much better chances of hanging on. Though i suspect the LD vote in those seats may fall but not as much as Labours, so unless the Tories come from knowhere those two seats should return LD IMO.
Ian, I have always posted as “A View from Cumbria” for no particular reason except it was relevant the first time I posted several years ago. I intend to continue to do so and have never made any issue of what my real name was.
Some might indeed hark back to the former West Riding and the Sedbergh Poor Law Union in the former wapentake of Ewecross.
However anyone who thought Kirkby Lonsdale was once in Lancashire would be showing greater ignorance than I would expect from anyone on Cumbria County Council.
If Cumbria is run by a Con/Lab alliance which is Trevor Fee ?
153.
“I dont think….”
The posting degenerated from this point onward.
141 - had to laugh at how gabble thought this was a positive for the government.
155. Whats the problem, just because i dont believe in the Lib Dem fantasy that seems as imbued in LD posters as childrens belief in the tooth fairy and father christmas. I said the LD might hang onto a couple of seats, its a bit poor if you cannot even post what national polling supports! Even if we start on the magic secret masonic handshakes, flashing of lib dem n1pples and two horse bar graphs - that sort of stuff is going to gain little traction at best in the current political and economic environment. The seat calculators already factor that in anyway!
157 I see your spell in the funny sorry health farm has done nothing to multiply the few brain cells you have .
140.Gabble
We are all saving our money to have a gigantic piss up when Labour get kicked out in the new year!
You can either join us or jump on the scrap heap with your miserable useless party!
156. floater: “had to laugh at how gabble thought this was a positive for the government.”
It’s a positive for the country and, as confidence returns, will help fund the recovery.
On topic.
Its highly unlikely that the Tories would elect two Etonians in succession and I disagree that going back to Hague would be the responses.
I’d keep an eye on Greg Clark
160. Gabble.
People saving, rather than spending, will help the recovery.
This is priceless, even by your standards.
158. Mark Senior December 22nd, 2009 at 7:41 pm
Given your fantasy and obvious hulicination about Lib Dem prospects I would have thought you should be the one in the straight jacket!
Maybe in your local area they do not send people to mental health facilities but make them join the local Lib Dems! 
LD membership is no doubt booming as the economy is under Gordon Brown! 
Do you post under the name Coldstone as well? You have similar posting traits and wrong and extreame habits in turning any political dialogue into a bitter and personal rant from you onto other posters.
163.
“You have …. wrong and extreame habits”
Is this a monk or a monkey posting?
160. Confidence? The small amount of confidence left in the British economy is clinging to the expectation of a Tory victory. It would only take a few disobliging opinion polls to flatten Sterling, wind down the FTSE, lose our credit rating and bring in the IMF. Paradoxically, the only force sustaining Brown’s government is the confident expectation that its days are numbered.
153 - An interesting footnote that both Yardley and Cambridge had Tory MPs until 1992 and they were only lost by wafer thin margins in that election.
By the way, Martin, I would plead with you to make a conscious effort to count to a hundred before posting. Your return seemed to bring with it a new maturity initially and some of your posts show real thought. But they seem to be degenerating again into the usual stuff - it’s unfortunate and I worry you might find yourself gone again before long if you don’t take time to breathe.
I understood that the missing qualifying adjective from Hutton’s Tuckeresque tirade implied that Brown would be more than a normal disaster. ;).
166 - I would second that and it would also help if idiots like Mark Senior could actually go a post or two without trying to wind Martin up as well.
I’m begining to think the past few months might be seen as something of the salad days for PB …. Sigh
All gone now and we had such hopes
162. gabble’s right on that one. It’s a fantasy that people spending money they don’t have on goods they don’t need - often produced abroad - is an aid to recovery.
What is needed is a stabilisation of the financial sector, a return to prudent lending and proper investment. Greater saving is an essential part of that process. Where else will the money come from?
166 SNP - are you trying to sound uber patronising?
Ian Stewart does hint at a valid point, the closeness of P&B and W&L. But, they are only half of a four seat family - the other two are Skipton and Ripon and Richmondshire. These are four essentially northern seats which join along the high Pennines.
The residents of all four are intensely independent of spirit and essentially conservative in outlook. I don’t think the old Gladstonian Liberals did particularly well except in high water years.
But, the electors have never been prepared to have their loyalty to Conservatism as opposed to conservatism taken for granted. Skipton elected a Commonwealthman in a closed wartime election in 1944. But, against the odds Tory, Burnaby Drayson aka Sir Bufton Tufton was elected in 1945. Anyone looking at the P&B by-election when David Maclean was elected would think heck, this will go Liberal next time. Likewise Skipton in October 1974 where the Tory majority was 590. Oh, and one William Hague would have lost Richmondshire in 1989 but for the happenstance of a Liberal and a Social Democrat opponent.
But, all of these were elections where the Tories were seen to be taking the electorate for granted and when the reason for dissatisfaction was removed there was a return to more normal voting patterns.
Martin Day is half right about Tim Collins - he was portrayed as being standoffish and not a hard working constituency MP. I know that was untrue and I give Ian the credit that he would acknowledge that.
The question is whether W&L will vote locally rather than nationally - it is in the cusp and will in part depend upon how effectively Cameron and Clegg spar against each other.
Rory Stewart will have a very significant majority and unless he does something seriously wrong will be the P&B MP for a very long time. Peter Thornton portrays him as “Rory the Tory”, a parody which Rory has the substance to overcome.
171 Plato. As some Greek probably said some time ago :
It’s deja vu all over again !!
68. There’s a couple interesting points about the John Hutton interview;
- On Gordon Brown as PM - “I think he has been a tremendously hard-working man, who has really put his heart and soul into it,”
I think “hard-working” was what old-fashioned teachers used to put on report cards, when you weren’t actually any good at the subject. Hard work is irrelavant without aptitude.
- On the maneuvering on behalf of Brown, to oust Blair
“I don’t think that was really a period of history in our party that anyone of us should look back with any sort of pride about.”
Hmm. No indeed. And a definite element of “Gordon Brown, don’t blame me gov…”
Is he staking out a position in advance of Brown’s defeat?
163 Martin, Don’t reply to Mark Senior…. he still fantasizes about local election results being the precursor to the LD’s taking over the world.
FWIW, as I suggested the other day, keep to digging out the truth, something you are amply suited to.
172 From what I’ve seen/read about Rory, he seems like a cracking PPC - wish he was looking to win in my constituency.
172 I think the Liberals also won Ripon in 1972.
Given Lib Dem strength in South Lakeland, I think it’s probable they’ll retain W & L.
It will be Chloë Smith, sillies.
She already sitteth on the right hand side of Dave the Almighty. All she needs to do is throw herself over the back of the sofa and she will be right there in front of the despatch box.
174 - “Is he staking out a position in advance of Brown’s defeat?”
Presumably the only positions of interest to him now are lucrative ones on the boards of companies not unconnected to areas he used to have responsibility for as a minister? He is standing down as an mp.
178.
“She already sitteth on the right hand side of Dave the Almighty.”
That’s only when she’s incarnated as GideO.
re 172……I don’t think Tim Collins was very well in May 2005, but I understand that he is back in the business, and I wish him well (but not “up here”!)
the “Rory the Tory” is one that was pushed out before he was selected in P&theB…..I think when he was unsuccessfully hawking himself around some of the other constituencies.
As for “local issues”, you know the score…..and Trevor’s Fee was peanuts……….anyhow he’s part of the “North Allerdale mob”.
Won’t be long now, and I howled at your words that W&L was “in the cusp”…….sorry, but you know better than that.
off now to the pub….bye.
172 AVfC. In the spirit of the season I think we might let “Martin Day is half right” pass.
At all other times …. Oh dear !!
180 wage slave
You are muddling transubstantiation with a personal fantasy. I recommend you seek urgent remedial tutoring from Yellow Submarine.
177. 1973 Sean - on something like a 25% swing. And they then lost it again in 1974 at the GE.
Right, Off to do something Contructive!
Digging someones car out of the snow!
184 Thanks.
On the theme of independence in the area, I see that Harrogate used to elect a Whig County Councillor in the 1970s, and 1980s.
185 All our snow has gone away
Still bloody chilly though
178. Almost sounds like a re-run of I’m Sorry I haven’t A Clue.
“And sitting on my right hand is our lovely scorer Samantha!”
In this picture, Stewart looks like William Dafoe.
Ballot boxes not to be counted by Local Authorities until Friday in 100 Constituencies. Maybe they will be the marginals?
http://oldrightie.blogspot.com/2009/12/glenrothesafghan-tactics.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed:+Oldrightie+(OldRightie)
John R = top poster!
malcolmg = utter spanner!!!
185. Martin I sincerely hope it does not belong to a Lib Dem!!!
59: The Spectator piece misses the point: the press will always seek to fill a gap in the market. There is a huge sector of the electorate that believes that - with perhaps a few exceptions - all parties and all politicians are rubbish.
Which newspaper is talking to that market? The Sun? It used to, but not since they fell in love with Dave. The Mirror? Permanently linked to Labour. The Express or the Star? Joke nesspapers if you’re interested in politics at all. Any broadsheet? Not virulent enough.
Enter the Mail. It’s not that they don’t like to be followers - it’s that they see a market. It was predictable from the moment the Sun embraced the Tories.
Will it make the Mail more pro-Labour? No. That’s not what the readers want. They want to roll their eyes over the outrages from each party in turn. I don’t think that Cameron is likely to be able to change that (though he might get a lukewarm endorsement in the end), since it’s a matter of good commercial sense.
177. Actually the Ripon constituency is a good example of how Liberal support can decay after a byelection win.
Having won the 1973 byelection narrowly, they lost by 10% in Feb 1974 (a fairly creditable margin), then by 18% in Oct 1974, then by 39% in 1979 - essentially all the way back to the starting position.
185/192
LDs: good at giving it out - not good at receiving it!!!
193. Absolutely agree, Nick. The Mail’s key constituency are people who want to complain about their local council’s latest wheezes, moan about the price of fuel, then sheepishly vote Tory on election day.
193 - To be fair, that huge sector of the electorate has plenty of material to justify their view.
193 - To be fair, that huge sector of the electorate has plenty of material to justify their view.
189. Willem Dafoe, even!
193 - Summing up that attitude, the UK version of the Daily Mail campaigns against the cervical cancer vaccine on the grounds that its dangerous untested and introduced by politicians.
In the Irish version it’s campaigning for the lifesaving vaccine which is safe and politicians refuse to introduce it.
199 – Willem Dafoe, thank you
, that’s the chap I was thinking of too, ugly bugger but a great actor.
190 - Tapestry, once the full list is announced it’ll be interesting to see how many are marginals. At the moment I don’t think that very many of them are but that might change.
202 i think it will be mainly urban inner city seats and some country seats which are largely safe lab and con respectively
If we have 500 seats declare overnight we will know the result!
In 1992 it was clear after 300 seats that it would be about con maj 19…
200 - They are different papers from a different country so they are likely to have different editorial positions.
193. Dacre’s policy is to be non-aligned, though he has had to go on bended knee to Brown to try to stop the worst instances of newspaper regulation, where he has been successful in reducing the threat of imprisonment of journalists for example.
If Cameron wins power, Dacre would have to play ball with Cameron, in his efforts, for example, trying to stop activist judges such as Eady from closing down reporting on privacy issues. I think they would have lots in common.
200. The Mail keeps a lively letters page, which is unusual. By being market responsive it holds market share.
“Which newspaper is talking to that market? The Sun? It used to, but not since they fell in love with Dave.”
Rewriting history to pretend that before it “fell in love with Dave” it wasn’t in love with Labour?
204 - The safety of a vaccine is indeed an editorial decision at the Mail.
It always has been.
Note for Martin Day : Westmorland and Lonsdale is gone now mate. Even in the Euro elections (when only the most coprophiliac Mark Oaten fantasising orange placard-waving deranged loon votes Liberal Democrat) they won South Lakeland borough ( roughly approximating W&L)by a landslide.
Kendal must be about the most Lib Dem town in the nation. Shame, nice place.
The Sun was always a tough Labour critic, even though they endorsed the party in previous elections. They never gave the Labour party or its politicians a free ride.
207
tim, it must be really hard for you not to be able to disseminate untruths. A day in the bunker, and you still haven’t come up with a new formula.
One does wonder why Hutton came out with his effing diaster stuff now. Was it a Mrs Bercow job, get it out in the open now so it reduces its effectiveness later? seems like it to me….
207. All vaccines are unsafe, and many widely issued vaccines have high rates of severe side effects. We calculate that the herd immunity offered is greater then the risk.
208 even i agree westmorland and lonsdale is gone!
Stay away from the lake district its gone orange!!!!
211 - Cervical Cancer vaccine has nowt to do with herd immunity.
And the Mail has made a decision to run scare stories in its UK edition but not in Ireland.
210 - Another example of herd inanity.
213
If your past record is anything to go by You’ll be mentioning MP’s or PPC’s soon tim, its your classic distraction mode.. noone hopefully falls for it any more…
Never mind , here is something to take you mind off it
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dFdas-kMF74
203 - yes I agree. As long as we have about 500 seats on the night things won’t be too bad.
The Birmingham and Derby seats will declare on the night if the election is held on March 25th but the next day if it’s May 6th.
214
Thats it tim, if all else fails use abuse.. its the last refuge…
o/t Lovely betting anecdote from the inimitable Clement Freud on BBC4. Apparently, seen as the outsider to win the Ely by-election, he put a lot of money on himself at 33/1 - which was picked up as the ’smart money’ going on Freud, when it fact, as he laconically said, it was the Freud money going on Freud. After he won he described the response: “No longer is he that nice chap who cooks - he’s that bastard who won the election”.
Re: bert, John R, (and earlier Major William Martin, Dame Hermione Gropeworthy and many more)
Isn’t it feasible to test email addresses when people first start posting ?
It seems that there have been a succession of posters behaving badly … and, hey presto, when the emails are checked out, they are fake.
219. Anyone else miss Emily Powell-Goebbels-Mitford or whatever her name was? We don’t get enough BNP supporters on here.
[203] - If we have 500 seats declare overnight we will know the result!
Yes, we would know the result, yet the result would not have entirely occurred. I feel quite confident that in these circumstances Brown would delay conceding defeat, even when it had become obvious, for as long as possible.
Consequently I expect that we will have the latest concession since.. well, I guess since Heath tried to hang on in February 1974 in the hung Parliament.
Was there a spread market on the time of concession for the last GE?
210 – Gwynfa, true there have been some very rare occasions of posters behaving badly, however OGH likes to think all are innocent until proved guilty, something to do with being a ‘liberal’ I believe.
New thread up.
New thread
217. Just as beauty is in the eye of the beholder, so the dull eye of Tim reduces the unique properties of all the posters on PB to ‘a herd’. His beholding eye is a very poor instrument incapable of appreciating difference.
Some interesting food for thought:
http://pewresearch.org/pubs/1445/little-support-for-terrorism-among-muslim-americans?src=prc-latest&proj=peoplepress
re 211 not me - absolute rubbish. Please name one
One of those rare birds born a century or so too late….
I doubt Hague needs to worry. Rory Stewart will need to ‘do his time’ as a PPS or something until the inevitable reshuffle anyway.
for a view from the class he is still teaching out in Harvard see http://harvardcitizen.com/2009/10/30/director-of-carr-center-runs-for-british-parliament/
I agree that Rory Stewart is a star and will soon advance in the Tory party.
I’m puzzled though that nobody has mentioned that he’s an Old Etonian.
Amazing! Not clear for me, how offen you updating your www2.politicalbetting.com.
[url=http://www.nnmfeel.net/]Ivan[/url]