Did Straw make a last-ditch effort to stop Blair?
December 24th, 2009
Is this going to keep Iraq in the news?
The main story in the Guardian is about a private letter that the then Foreign Secretary, Jack Straw, wrote to the Tony Blair just before the invasion of Iraq suggesting, amongst other things, that Britain should offer the Americans “political and moral support” in their campaign against Saddam Hussein, but not military backing.
According to the paper Straw “reportedly urged Blair to tell George Bush that British troops would help clear up the mess and keep the peace once the war was over, but could play no part in Saddam’s overthrow.”
That apparently there was such a split right at the heart of government even at that stage could be dynamite and might put more focus on other cabinet members at the time including the then chancellor, Mr. Brown. He, though, will not be facing the Iraq inquiry until after the election.
Even so it’s hard to see the “What did Gordon know and do” issue being avoided during the campaign. The inquiry could set a lot of hares running and simply saying that Brown’s appearance won’t be until after the election is not going to satisfy the likely media clamour. In fact it could have the reverse effect.
What a gift to the Lib Dems whose opposition to the war helped them gain seats and secure a 22.7% vote share in 2005. It seems crazy from Labour’s standpoint that this should be taking place during the general election run-up.
The Straw letter, though, might just help Straw fend off a strong Lib Dem challenge in his Blackburn seat.
Mike Smithson
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1st
Or was it just posturing for posterity? Thinking of the history books and his vulnerable majority in 2010…
Reposted from the last thread, and the odds on Afghanistan have now moved in to 4/1. Still pretty good value given the other words on the list, perhaps with a covering bet on “economy” at 2/1.
* * * BETTING POST * * *
The Sun reports that the Queen will talk about our Armed Forces in her Christmas speech
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/campaigns/our_boys/2783720/Queens-speech-praises-troops.html
Paddy Power have a market on what word the Queen will use first; Afghanistan is 5/1.
http://www.paddypower.com/bet?action=go_type&ev_class_id=91&disp_cat_id=&ev_type_id=12510&ev_oc_grp_ids=119658
Outstanding value. Get on quick!
‘Paddy Power have a market on what word the Queen will use first; Afghanistan is 5/1.’
“Afghanistan and I…” ???
Seems a long shot.
Brown said nothing to support Iraq for a long long time - with much pointed comment in the press at the time about what his lack of vocal support meant. He came out supporting it right at the end when the whole cabinet - including Straw - did so in an act of collective responsibility.
As for his role onward from there, convention is that Chancellors do not sit on war cabinets. He didn’t do so for the Balkan wars or Desert Fox, and I’d be surprised if he did for Iraq.
The only winners on Iraq are the LibDems who said clearly and consistently why it was wrong. Difficult for the Tories to gain much traction on an issue that they fully supported and have said even now that the lack of WMD is apparent that they would still have supported.
Iraq will be issue #176 at the election - the economy; toffs and even Europe will have more impact, except for a few hard core voters who are not going to have their views changed by any inquiry.
Sad really, as any proper analysis of the multiple illegal wars waged by Blair, should have resulted in some significant constitutional changes to the right of the executive to wage war.
Something to add to Cameron’s in-tray.
Re election date - April 1st could be considered an option? A Thursday IIRC, with no major conflicts scheduled. “On Fools Day, 5 more years” = great slogan!
Today’s Telegraph has an excellent Photoshop job of our glorious leader as Scrooge here.
Effective Spreads.
CON…348-350
LAB…212-215
LD…..53-55
When ? Roughly 1-2 MAY,3-1 MARCH,10-1 APRIL and JUNE.
Who ? It is very approximately 4-25 (1.16 digital) that Brown and Cameron contest.
Here are a few novelty updates from yesterday. Right against the grain and following JackW’s advice I was able to Buy the Lib Dems at 51.5 and Sell the Conservatives at 355.0. Also managed to Sell a fiver’s worth of SNP at 12.5 ! So better news for Stuart this yuletide.
Talking of ‘Jack’.He came under heavy fire in 2005 and survived.Surely it should be easier this time for him to hold off the LDs in Blackburn.
This is why Labour will lose. From yahoo.co.uk:
TOP SEARCHES OF 2009
1 Big Brother
2 X Factor
3 Job centre
4 Michael Jackson
5 Jade Goody
6 Premier League
7 Swine flu
8 Katie Price
9 Cheryl Cole
10 Train times
Especially number 3. It’s the economy.
Strange that labour councillors are against May 6th.The A GE election should help turnout for Labour versus normal Local Government turnout.Maybe however this is outweighed by their fear of being tainted by the Brown brand!
Con permissione, I would like to conduct a straw poll regarding the number of Seats the Conservatives will obtain in the General Election.
My idea is to split the options three ways, into what I think are equal segments.
The blog piece that Mike links to is interesting but flawed in it reasoning. Certain dates are eliminated because the schools are closed and it would cost too much to reopen them. I’m sorry but the last year makes it quite clear that Gordon Brown does not give a d*mn about running up costs. If he can stomach £20bn a month then a few million for an election campaign will not bother him in the slightest.
Then there is the assumption that Gordon will call the election on a Thursday as tradition dictates. Gordon does not like tradition - new red boxes, Mansion House outfit, alternating the Speaker Labour, tory, laboour, tory, etc, etc
Finally there is the assumption that on a half term voters will be away and therefore no election will be called. Wrong - Gordon will bet that TORY voters will be away.
So expect the election to be in a half-term any day but Thursday.
11 The biggest flaw I saw when I read the blog piece was the idea that the Budget could be turned into any sort of positive launch-pad by Labour. I’d be really interested to know how that works, given the strains that the PBR caused at the heart of this Labour Govt.
Perhaps Gordon will have a final Cabinet reshuffle to get the Budget he wants for the election - which means it will be being delivered by Chancellor Ed Balls?
3 Wibbler - quite a clever bet that one, since having looked down PP’s list of what the Queen might or might not say, only 4 or 5 of these appear remotely possibible (I mean “David Beckham” for God’s sake, bless his cotton socks). I notice “to be sure, to be sure” doesn’t feature!
That said, instead of Afghanistan, I’m opting for “Iraq” at double the odds of 8/1, since she’s quite likely to link the two conflicts together and “Iraq and Afghanistan” rolls off the tongue rather easier than the other way round.
We shall see!
14 Peter from Putney
Hmmm… possibly. Though we left Iraq (mostly) in April…
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/8026136.stm
FTPT. Mike L, Christina D.
I made the suggestion here, a few times I think and some while ago, that Labour should choose a new leader before the GE - but keep Brown as PM.
That way Brown gets to stay as long as he wants as PM, hands the “gauntlet on to the next generation” having “steered the country away from Economic Armageddon” and avoids getting all the blame for losing the GE.
I’m not very good at doing the site search option and others may well have made the same argument?
14. Peter. I tried to back both Afghanistan and Iraq a few days ago but I was only offered the bets to a few quid, so I didn’t bother.
16 stjohn, , Wibbler’s guide should help you, I’d do it myself but I have to go out.
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/wibbler-on-searching-pb-comments/
16 stjohn, etc. - for those who believe there’s still the tiniest chance of Brown quitting/handing over before the GE, Betfair has just £3 on D Miliband becoming the next PM at 25/1 ….. come on, it’s only the price of a pint.
Some nice business for me yesterday, helping myself to some April GE at 16/1 with Ladbrokes and selling the same on Betfair at 11/1.
18. MTF. Thanks. I will have a go later.
19. Peter. But not a pint of Peroni, eh?
17 stjohn - great minds….. to be honest, I only invested £3 myself on “Iraq”. As you’ve probably noticed, I like doing “pint-sized” bets on PP’s novelties such as these.
BTW, have you noticed that Villa are now only 7/2 to win the Premier League Handicap - lovely jubbly!
In my local, the landlord offered me 33 pints to 1 of Adnams on D.Milliband, but stipulated I have to drink all thirty three at one sitting.
21 stjohn - no, for the winter, I’ve transferred my affections to the “The Speckled Hen” - truly wonderful ale, especially from the bottle!
22. Peter. You have a cracking bet there on the Villa. Who would have thought Birmingham would be in the hunt though?
It’s still early days, but POTY already looks like a three horse race, with Mr Nabavi just out in front.
I hope he wins, he thoroughly deserves to imho.
Good morning happy punters and suppers on this Xmas eve. I have a happy glow about me as I think of next years election, maybe it’s the early Schnapps I’ve tasted this morning.
A pre-Christmas drive to reassure middle-class voters that Labour still supported the better-off was abandoned because of disagreements between Gordon Brown and Lord Mandelson, The Times has learnt.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6967011.ece
Presumably Hebee GeeBee wants to fight against the middle classes now.
Tremendous news. That’s my bet lost, and my business saved.
27 Good morning Weathercock - most of us leave the supping until after breakfast!
29. Good morning Peter, well it is unusual weather out there. By the way I apologise for not replying to your e-mail of Dec 6th, only noticed it on Monday. Thats may fault as I moved to a new computer and have been busy elsewhere this month.
28. JSK
It’s difficult to know which sections of society Labour thinks it still supports.
They’ve lost middle class swing voters and they’re not too popular among the WWC after BJ4BW and the increase in taxes on the working poor.
Labour are really down to ‘immigrants and single mothers’ at one end of society and the new toffs of ‘quangocrats and hospital managers’ at the other.
Groups which aren’t well thought of.
14 - Going through my years bets the other day, it stood out like a sore thumb that these speech bets (OK, only for tiny stakes) were by far the worst bets of the year.
Stay away.
31 - Are you dreaming of a WWC Christmas?
The problem with Straw’s defence is that if he was that unhappy with the decision, why didn’t he follow Cook and resign? He very probably had the power to stop Britain’s involvement in the war in his own hands: had Straw also resigned - having seen the full MI6 intelligence (unlike Cook) - it would have almost certainly swayed wavering Labour MPs (and perhaps a few Tories) into voting against. It may also have prompted Short to go, not least because Blair wouldn’t have had the time to spend on her if he was having to manage the far more serious issue of potentially losing his current foreign secretary as well as his previous one.
As far as the electoral prospects for Straw go, I wouldn’t anticipate him losing his seat. This revelation may help but most of the gains the Lib Dems made with the Asian vote seem to have dissipated over recent years. Unless there are peculiar circumstances in Blackburn, he’s probably safe.
Wasn’t there an article recently about Labour appeasing Muslim extremists, with Mr Straw a leading proponent?
16: That simply won’t work…how’s Brown going to command any sort of authority during a GE when the electorate know he’s not going to be there afterwards. In addition a new leader=new policies, so why would you vote for a party which 1) Won’t have the same leader, and 2) could have completely different policies to the ones they’re campaigning on.
That would be the worse of both worlds.
31 Another Richard
“The only beneficiaries from the PBR’s small giveaways are: single mothers who are unemployed and non earner couples with children. “
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/author/edmundconway/
Morning folks from a very scenic but pretty chilly Easter Ross. 6 inches of ice in the water barrell this morning.
To those of you about to embark on a long car journey or even worse a venture to the shops, good luck!
On thread, surely the biggest danger for Labour in the run-in to the General Election from the Iraq enquiry is not so much that it was an “illegal” war but as the truth comes out about who said what to whom within the Government ranks it will emphasise in the minds of the floating voter that Labour is all about spin and lies.
People may dislike a government, they may indeed despise a government but such emotions are often matched by a slight admiration for a government willing to do what it considers correct even in the face of public opposition.
The biggest danger for any government must be when the people consider it dishonest. The Iraq enquiry already shows all the hallmarks of doing just that to the 13 year Blair/Brown regime.
There will be senior ministers and ex-ministers, people like Jack Straw, charles Clarke and John Reid who will have an eye on posterity and their future employability to want to be too closely connected to Blair or Brown.
Labour had better hope lord Goldsmith is not required to give evidence before the election. His evidence could be explosive as the “man who changed his mind”.
What does this do for the Tories? Well in my view if David Cameron and William Hague basically keep quiet Labour will harm itself enough over the issue.
I agree this could be the issue which pushes the LibDems back above 20% on the actual day as the party consistently opposed to the war. I doubt it will do them any good in Con-LibDem marginals but it could help them hold on to unexpected 2005 gains and possibly even help win the odd extra seat from Labour. The problem for Nick clegg is getting his party to take the credit without being seen to gloat, something they can be very good at.
It may also provide a small but welcome boost for both sets of Nationalists who also opposed the Iraq war did they not?
If only Robin Cook was still alive!
This story, like everything else that’s emerged from the Chilcot inquiry, has been known for years. Whether Blair was advised against joining the war is irrelevant. Britain committed troops on the basis of a parliamentary vote and - according to the French, yes the French - UNSC Resolution 1441 provided sufficient legal cover. Nothing except a bit of political embarrassment will come out of this inquiry. Stop kidding yourselves.
http://tinyurl.com/yh36z3q
For tim, Gordon Brown stole xmas….
On topic, I agree that Iraq disclosures could be an issue that the SNP could exploit in Scotland. Plaid alas, have got into bed with Labour in Wales and will be sharing their fleas.
“The only beneficiaries from the PBR’s small giveaways are: single mothers who are unemployed and non earner couples with children. “
I would have thought these are exactly the type of people who do not vote, especially the single mothers. It’s just a guess, but does anyone have information to back this up?
Not last-ditch. He could’ve resigned.
F1: I always like checking the official site, and it often has a mini-poll on the front page. There’s an almost even split between Schumacher winning 0 races, 1-4, and 5+. I opted for 5+, incidentally. I’d've preferred a 4+ option, but there we are.
He’s now 5.4, just a shade behind Alonso.
I hope all the drivers are announced shortly so that I can do my next pb2 post. Hmm. My favourite drivers are Schumacher and Vettel… I hope I don’t end up looking like a traitor in the Track War of 2010
38. France did not agree that 1441 gave legal cover for military action, they wanted a further resolution from the Security Council. Dominque de Villepin spoke out against war at the UNSC in February 2003. Plans for a second resolution to authorise military action were abandoned in early March when it became clear it would be vetoed. Soon after that Bush, Blair and Aznar met in the Azores and declared the diplomatic approach to have ended. There was no UNSC resolution that explicitly authorised military action only “serious consequences”. At the time of the war France did not agree that that phrase allowed military action.
Jack Straw’s nearest challenger at the last election, despite the impression given by our host, was the Conservative candidate (although the Lib Dems put on gains at the expense of both the Tories and Labour in 2005 to finish a good third):
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/guide/seat-profiles/blackburn
I firmly expect Jack Straw to hold this seat. Apart from anything else, the confusion over who is the most credible challenger should split the opposition vote.
40 JSK
Mr Conway credited the IFS
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/edmundconway/100002631/pre-budget-report-the-ifss-verdict/
“If only Robin Cook was still alive!”
Indeed. We could ask him why Kosovo was okay, and Iraq a resigning matter.
In the spirit of the trenches 1915, I think that The Goodguys should challenge The Herd to a football match played in No Man’s Land.
Kick Off midnight, SNP welcome !
38/42 The reason there is no political capital to be made from Chilcott is that the vast majority of people (rightly or wrongly) are just bored by the whole issue. And yes, as Easterross implies there is a danger for the LDs here - if they make too much of the ‘we were right all along’ line they will come to be seen as Iraq obsessives and turn off voters - much in the way that the Tories managed to do with their Euro-obsession for so long. The key to success in the coming election is to address the issues that people really care about - the economy, jobs etc - and at a push Afghanistan - but not Iraq, and why we went to war - that’s just so 2005!
Happy Christmas Mike - thank you for all your work throughout the year - this is the best blog around and the best posters!!
46 “SNP welcome”
As the ball?
Reports of big Labour rifts still persist, abd those are fatal for any party wanting to get elected. I can’t see why these arguments would be happening if the Tory lead is really ‘narrowing’. Labour’s own private polling must be telling them something very different - at least in the seats that count.
BTW, ding-dong (merrily on high?) battle for the vote on the previous thread - just 14 votes separate no less than six posters for the coveted fourth slot…
If you haven’t yet voted - do so!
The trouble with the “What did Gordon know, and when did he know it?” question is that the MSM and the internet will reduce it to a “Who said what to whom?” formulation, which immediately becomes very boring to the vast majority of the electorate. Loads of advisors and civil servants suddenly come on stage, bit-part players all, and start to make things more confusing by their very existence. Relationships are unclear, authority to act or advise is clouded in mystery, and everyone gives up.
Remember, it was the Tapes that sunk Nixon - not the Inquiry itself. Without the sudden appearance of the Tapes (surely the best deus ex machina ever?) the Inquiry would probably still be sitting.
It’s Christmas Eve - is the Bloody Sunday Inquiry still going on?
40 JSK
The IFS have some power point Files from their 10 December briefing on their website (I don’t have power point, so I don’t know what information they show.)
http://www.ifs.org.uk/projects/314
42 - You are entirely wrong. Read Thomas Cantaloube’s ‘Chirac Contre Bush - L’autre Guerre’ and Vanity Fair’s investigation from 20045. Chirac’s two top diplomatic advisers were despatched to the Americans just before the war began to beg them not to push a second resolution to avoid splitting the SC. The French told them 1441 was sufficient cover - just don’t push another vote. The Americans couldn’t because Blair needed the second resolution to convince the armchair lawyers at home.
52. Augustus. Exactly - just as there were no WMD in Iraq there is no proof that Brown/ Blair/ Straw - et al knew that before we went to war. If there were ‘tapes’, or something equally damning we’d have known about it long ago. The only predicable is that Chilcott will be decried as a ‘whitewash’, and there will be demands for another enquiry that gets to the real truth … Michael Finnegan, begin-agin …
45 - indeed, and why the unilateral attack on Iraq he authorised in 1998 without UN support and against French opposition was “limited number of bombing runs” and not an act of war.
52. “It’s Christmas Eve - is the Bloody Sunday Inquiry still going on?”
Of course. I wouldn’t be surprised if it doesn’t report until all the people involved that day either directly or indirectly are at least retired from public life.
55. There may be a ‘killer document’ but if so it’s been well hidden. I’d be very wary about assuming that it would already be publicly known about. That said, IMO, a smoking gun is more likely to appear in testamony than on paper or electronic records.
10. No, having the GE on May 6th encourages ‘vote-splitters’ who vote Labour in the GE and, say, Lib Dem in the locals.
The Lib Dem tendency to prefer local politics over national means May 6th is the best day for Brown to hold the GE.
Giving the ‘vote-splitters’ just one ballot paper on April 8th would be a risk.
Did Straw make a last ditch effort to stop Blair?
No.
Is this letter a last ditch effort to save Straw?
Yes.
59 Perhaps his canvass returns aren’t looking too good?
“Talking of ‘Jack’.He came under heavy fire in 2005 and survived.Surely it should be easier this time for him to hold off the LDs in Blackburn.”
Stuff in the papers about Straw trying to stop Iraq (which i don’t believe for a second) show he still has a problem. If i had to guess it would be because (if i understand it right) of his ministry being directly involved in rendition and razorblades.
I’d have thought that would make it easy to shift him in theory - if it was me i’d have leaflets out asking if the razor blades used to torture people were bought on expenses - but seems Ashdown has got the LDs pinned down on this stuff.
If al Beeb had gone big on the British government being directly involved in kidnapping and torturing (like they do when rendition doesn’t involve Labour ministers) then Straw would have stood down by now knowing he was going to lose. This would have happened regardless of whatever his actual involvement is/was because a lot of these people their ego is built on a sense of moral superiority so once that gets punctured they deflate.
I’ve just done a massive You Gov survey, which included opinions on a number of political figures and issues, and also seemed to be judging whether Cameron’s Carphone Warehouse mate’s activities ahd a had a damaging effect on the brand.
57 - I agree with that. They will hang together or hang separately. My guess is that they will hang together, but keep a close eye on Lord Goldsmith.
59
That’s it in a nutshell.
50 Labour’s private polling will show the same Conservative lead, c.12%, that the published polls are showing.
I don’t know how to say this, what with Merry Christmas coming up and all….but I despise almost everyone, Past, Present and Future.
If ‘Shock & Awe’ had been a Tory war backed up by responsible Labour politicians, this forum would have taken a collective schtumpowder apart from those lovely Liberal Democrats.
I have a kind of respectful hatred for the Lib Dems, but just sheer contempt for mainstream Tories claiming that IDS would have adopted a different stance to Tony Blair.
What a peculiar blog post from Heaton-Harris. He makes an argument for not having an election when schools are shut, and then plumps for a date - 8th April - when schools will be shut.
There’s plenty of political mileage in the Iraq enquiry coming now if you look at the Labour vote in terms of a simplified collection of segments.
1) WWC - slowly drifting away from Labour since after 1997 because of all the negative consequences of mass immigration that don’t get reported on the BBC
2) Guardianista/ethnic - big dip over Iraq that *was* fading
3) Tony’s Tories - stuck with Labour all the way to 2005 because McDoom’s credit bubble pushing house prices up made them feel rich.
My view is Tony’s tories is what saved Labour from a hammering in 2005. Now the WWC vote is in even worse shape than before plus the Tony’s Tories vote is shattered - if the Guardianista/ethnic blip over Iraq gets a second wind because of the enquiry then it could be the final nail.
(I’m glad I’m not coming carol singing to your house, URW! You sound a bit frightening.)
66: But it wasn’t URW. Who knows who or what would have happened if the tories were in power. Maybe they would have demanded more time for the UN inspectors. would so many labourites have supported the war if the tories were in charge?
Would IDS have done the same as Blair? Probably, maybe, who knows? But it was Blair and Labour which did the running in this reality.
69 Augustus Carp. I have boiling water at the ready for carol singers.
If Fatha Christmas makes it down my chimney, I’ll shoot him in the face.
62. I dont trust that man Kellner, especially now that his wife is the almighty High Commissioner for Foreign Affairs of the EU.
I don’t care about the war itself - i think Saddam was an evil bastage and if i’d been directly involved in toppling him i’d be proud of it, international law or otherwise - but what happened afterwards because *they had NO plan for the occupation* was a massive crime and they should pay for it. Instead they all got rich off the blood like a swarm of bloated leeches.
72, I don’t trust Kellner’s interpretation of the polls (Tories not ’sealed the deal’ [loathsome phrase] and needing an 11 point lead for a majority of 1). Not done or seen one of his polls though.
“Is this going to keep Iraq in the news?”
In The Guardian, probably. No-one watches/reads the news at Christmas though (no-one reads the Guardian for that matter).
As for the Labour councillors allegedly being opposed to a combined general/local election - it’s absolute tosh. Every Labour councillor I know is praying they be combined, as the increased turnout is far, far more likely to benefit Labour in terms of the locals, even if the Tories do well in the general. That’s because it’s notoriously difficult to get Labour voters out for any election where the future of the country is not at stake.
The locals HAVE to be on May 6th. If the general is not May 6th, it’ll HAVE to be before (realistically), and if Labour councillors think having the elections on seperate days will benefit them they’ll be sadly disappointed when it does get to May 6th, and they’re vainly attempting to drag their voters kicking and screaming to the polling booth for the second time in a short period, for an election they don’t care about.
67 - The conclusion that I drew is that no day is suitable for an election. I wonder whether Gordon Brown will come to the same conclusion?
For what it’s worth, I like the general approach taken by Mr Heaton-Harris of considering each day and its merits/demerits. His point about school holidays is a fair one, but hardly a deal-breaker.
His big objection to 25 March doesn’t seem to amount to much - obviously it would be nice for the UK to be at this EU meeting if possible, but worse things happen at sea than missing the odd EU meeting. It may have more relevance in that the Labour party would rather like the EU to be in the news in an election build-up and campaign: could all the Better Off Out Tories keep their mouths shut? That suggests to me that he would like to attend that meeting with great fanfare.
Nor does his big objection to 6 May amount to much; a few councillors might in theory not be too chuffed (though I’d have thought it would be better for them, actually), but councillors are sub-pawns while MPs are knights, rooks and occasionally queens. A few sub-pawns can be sacrificed to save more valuable pieces.
67. There’s no good reason for elections not being on Sundays when the schools will always be shut.
66. I read Robin Cook’s book ‘Point of Departure’ and I got the impression IDS was even more gung-ho about Iraq than Blair.
54. “42 - You are entirely wrong. Read Thomas Cantaloube’s ‘Chirac Contre Bush - L’autre Guerre’ and Vanity Fair’s investigation from 20045. Chirac’s two top diplomatic advisers were despatched to the Americans just before the war began to beg them not to push a second resolution to avoid splitting the SC. The French told them 1441 was sufficient cover - just don’t push another vote. The Americans couldn’t because Blair needed the second resolution to convince the armchair lawyers at home.”
By the French government’s own public view legality could only be conferred by a second resolution. Chirac wanted to avoid a confrontation in the security council but military action does not become legal by default. Chirac thought that saving face and keeping in the Americans good book mattered more than doing what his government had said is right.
2. - Thinking of his vulnerable muslim majority more like.
Good song: Gordon Brown Stole Christmas. Courtesy of Ian Dale:
http://iaindale.blogspot.com/2009/12/gordon-brown-stole-christmas.html
70 - Correct.
Labour must live with removing genocidal dictators in Iraq and Serbia and stopping a civil war in Sierra Leone.
Boo hoo.
The Tory Govt must live with its decision to watch a genocide on TV in Bosnia and levelling the killing fields in the Serbs favour.
And the Lib Dems who wail about the illegality of Iraq, must regard Robin Cook as a war criminal over the illegal Kosovo War.
16.
I’ve found my post, referred to above.
“72. On Brown’s “Will I stay or will I go?” chances, consider the evidence:
1. Brown won’t want any of his colleagues to take his place as PM.
2. Brown won’t want to be defeated and blamed for Labour’s defeat at the next GE.
The solution. Brown states that he will (not-sic) step down as Prime Minister at the GE. Time to pass on the mantle to the next generation, having steered the country through the worst recession in decades etc.
Labour has a leadership election in February/March 2010. The electorate know who they would be voting for as the next PM, if they vote Labour.
Brown maxes out on his time as PM without going down to electoral defeat. Simples!
by stjohn October 25th, 2009 at 3:09 pm
82 - No matter how often you say it, it wasn’t a genocide in Bosnia. It was a nasty, dirty civil war of the type that has taken place many times in the past and will probably, sadly, take place again many times in the future.
Labour must live with the fact that because of their actions more people died in Iraq in all probability than would have died otherwise. It was a crime, but worse than that, it was a mistake.
The POTY voting
I’ve just noticed that two who were on the list didn’t get onto the voting form - Rod Crosby and Edmund from Tokyo. Apologies to both of you.
I’m trying to work out what to do.
83: I’m sorry, I still don’t see it. Labour would have a hugely difficult time as the ‘new’ leader would be hamstrung into the manifesto which would be hugely influenced by the existing ‘Brown team’.
There now isn’t enough time for a new leader to at least ’show’ and demostrate that labour had/is renewing itself by clear policy changes and measures. Brown would be a lame duck, so pointless in campaigning, and the new leader, as they wouldn’t be leader, wouldn’t have the authority to carry the election campaign.
On topic: it really isn’t news that Straw tried (perhaps rather feebly) to restrain Blair. That was made very clear in, amongst other sources, Sir Christopher Meyer’s DC Confidential (a cracking good read, BTW, even if Sir Christopher is rather too full of himself, and also wrong to be so indiscreet so soon after the events).
As Easterross and others have pointed out above, the Chilcot Inquiry does have the potential to cause damage to Labour, not so much because anything dramatically new is likely to be uncovered, but more because it reminds voters of Labour’s dissembling. In addition, there is a risk of exposing rifts within the ranks of senior Labour ministers, especially if they start giving contradictory accounts of what happened.
But I don’t think Chilcot is going to be a major factor in the election. It’s old news, most people have already made up their minds about it, and there are other more pressing concerns. In addition, the key players (with the exception of Straw) are no longer at the heart of government. For all his faults, I think Brown can quite fairly claim that the disaster of Iraq wasn’t his baby.
74. It’s not the lead that’s so important, it’s the voting share. Cameron is steady at 40 and just above. He should be in high 40s really.
Dave B, thanks for the info, perhaps I should have phrased my question a little differently.
I meant to ask “Are unemployed single mothers less likely to vote?”.
88 - Right…
88. No, it’s the ratio that is important. 39:26 is just as good as 45:30.
re 82. So what should form the basis in international law over whether nations can invade other nations which are not threatening them?
That’s what we have to UN for - but you and other warmongering Blairites seem to think that you possess a moral superiority that allows you to by pass such constraints.
85 Sorry, Mike, there’s nothing else to do but have another election!
What larks, Pip, what larks…..
84 - Antifrank, your view on Bosnia got taken apart a few months ago on a thread.
The killings in Bsonia as an attempt to create an expanded ethnic Serb state were aided and abettted by the Miterrand and Major Govts.
Hurd in particular.
And Britains involvement made no difference whatsoever to the number of Iraqis that died.
No one thinks the US weren’t going in anyway.
88: No party has reached over 50% share of the vote in any general election. In the ‘high point’ of 1983, Thatcher only got 42.3%, in 1987:42.3%, in 1992:41.9%.
92 - The UN at Srebrenica acted legally
Robin Cook acted illegally over Kosovo.
I know which side I’m on.
89 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voter_turnout has a section on socio-economic factors including the key point that all over the world there is a greater tendency for the wealthy to vote and the poor to abstain. Whatever you think about unemployed single mothers, they do tend to be poor.
94: In which case why did we go in at all tim? could have saved several hundred of our soldiers lives, and billions of pounds if we’d let the US go it alone.
94 tim - Don’t be absurd. ‘Aided and abetted’ is a ludicrous over-statement even if there were any truth in the central point, which I don’t think there is.
And as for Iraq: Of course Britain’s involvement made no difference to the disaster. So what? By that reasoning, you might as well join in a mob killing because not doing so wouldn’t make any difference.
As with Vietnam, the correct thing for Britain would have been to keep out of it. Not only would that have been the right thing to do, it would also have been directly in British interests, and saved British lives.
96: Why didn’t we jump in in any number of other civil wars then tim? Sri Lanka, Chechnya…why not Zimbabwe? Why are’t we playing policeman in Tibet?
93 Yep.
While we are at it, we could add the Championship too - with another 30 posters added, who we also get to vote for, with the top of the Championship joining three from the Premiership.
The four finalists then engage in mortal combat outside Parliament on New Year’s Day to find a winner….
I am not comfortable with the idea that Gordon Brown will not be called in front of inquiry until after the GE. If his evidence leaves him in a negative light with the electorate, and in particular the core Labour vote, surely they have the right to make an informed decision?
96
tim you have told us “what side you are on ” a hundred times or more, repeating it again and again adds 0% to the debate..
Darfur, in Sudan…why didn’t we jump in there tim?
16.stjohn, thanks for that, it was bugging me. I suspected it was you or HenryG that might have posted it.
102 ChristinaD
To amend an old joke from Watergate -
“The crucial questions are : What did the Prime Minister know? and “WHEN DID HE STOP KNOWING IT?”
94 “And Britains involvement made no difference whatsoever to the number of Iraqis that died.”
Well then, what happened to every missile, every bomb, every bullet expended by the British Army, Navy and Air Force in Iraq? Were they all duds??
Undoubtedly the most crass statement I have ever read on pb.com.
I’m not sure that Chilcot will lose Brown many votes at all, to be honest. If anything I’d only expect it to reinforce opinions in people who weren’t going to vote for him anyway. Core voters won’t care.
I presume that the winner of the 2009 POTYSHIP will be honoured by Jack W anointing them with the Noble Order of the Cracked Chamber POTY?
Mike - I know PB has only been around since 2004, but are you going to run a POTD (Decade) competition too? And how come no Jack - are previous winners debarred?
ref tim @82.
I disagree, about Iraq, but tim’s right about the rest of it. I don’t think it’s really a party political issue- whichever party was in power would have made the same decision in nearly all those cases. But Bosnia is a real stain on Douglas Hurd’s reputation.
97. And closing their children’s schools on election day doesn’t exactly encourage them to vote. They have to watch the children, who will want to go anywhere but school.
92. National interest. That, however, includes the anticipated reaction of other countries and individuals around the world. It also includes the longer term effects of the action.
111. But the point, for electoral purposes (we can argue the rights and wrongs until the cows come home), is that Iraq might be an issue at the election, but Bosnia/Kosovo most certainly won’t.
A Happy Christmas to all PBers, including all Lurkers and CATs
Since I may not be around on the day I thought I’d get my Christmas Greetings in early.
Once again PB has proved to be the finest blogging community on the web. Just look at the nominations for POTY. You could easily have added another thirty names without stretching it. Some of my own favorites - Ave It and Marquee Mark - were omitted and I hope none were offended. PB’s diversity, depth and range of talents are amongst its greatest strengths.
Thanks to all those voted for me. It’s been a relatively quiet political betting year and I have posted much less frequently than I would have liked, due largely to other commitments. I have however managed to contribute the odd article and arrange a couple of social events. Since these tend to identify me as part of the PB establishment, I’m not sure I should have been nominated. I see other Site Stalwarts [members of the SS? ;-)] such as Morus, Double Carpet, JackW and SeanT stood aside, so if anybody else is tempted to vote PtP, may I respectful suggest as an alternative one of my own choices - Yellow Submarine [that rare bird, an intelligent and articulate LibDem], Nick Palmer MP [we may never get another chance] and Christina [Top Tory Totty].
Thanks to SeanT for being such a fine holder of the post. His comments on the responsibilities of this small accolade were quite touching. He will, I am sure, return to his work with young people in Thailand a stronger and better man for the experience.
Thanks to you all. You are a great community.
Have a very Happy Christmas and a swinging New Year!
107
You must assume if the Brits did not join the US in Iraq, Basra would still have been fought over.Would the US troops have killed fewer or more Iraqis?
Pass: no worth arguing over.
108
Chilcot.
Anyone who is seriously interested will have formed their opinions long ago. And no-one disinterested in politics will follow it.
All it proves is Tony Blair lied. Well what a surprise..If that is new news to anyone, they must be short of IQ and extremely naive..
95. There are plenty of instances of parties winning more than 50% of the vote if you go back far enough.
The only instance of it since universal suffrage was the Conservatives in 1931. The Conservative-lead National coalition also achieved 50% in 1935 if Nat Libs and Nat Lab candidates are included.
118 - But we do not live in a 2-party state anymore.
Tim, my point did not get “taken apart”. You disagreed. That is not the same thing.
The Serbs certainly wanted an expanded state. Did they want to obliterate Muslims and Croats from existence? Very doubtful indeed. The difference between Srebenica and Magdeburg and a thousand other similar atrocities is indecipherable.
118 - Yet, at almost every election certainly since 1979 polls have consistently shown that SDP and Lib Dem supporters have preferred the winning party to the losing party, including now backing Cameron after previously backing Blair. If we had a 2 party system like the US generally is, with the odd exception like 1992, I have no doubt Cameron and the Tories would be over 50%!
113 re managers in brothels
Looks like several writs waiting to happen, for libel or invasion of privacy as appropriate. There’s a reason neither The Sun nor the rest of Fleet Street published a name.
And google finds your book has already been posted to digitalspy.
94 “And Britains involvement made no difference whatsoever to the number of Iraqis that died.”
It should have done.
116 “All it proves is Tony Blair lied. Well what a surprise..If that is new news to anyone, they must be short of IQ and extremely naive.”
Time heals all wounds…unless you keep picking at the scab.
121 - Bill Leckie was unimpressed with the unnamed manager in the paper today.
http://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/scotsol/homepage/news/papercolumnists/billleckie/2783739/Sex-den-Premier-League-boss-is-bang-to-rights.html
118: I should have said modern (post 1945) times of course. But still, provides ample evidence that governments with a fine, workable majority.
There have been other minor changes, UKIP chipping away a few percent, the lib-dems increasing by 3 or 4% from 1992, all of which have limited the share of the electorate for the main 2 parties.
One married Premiership manager has long been well-known to be a user of ladies of the night. Presumably this is about a different manager.
85 Mike, why worry?
PB Elections are supposed to be a spot of fun. I’m sure Rod and Edmund weren’t fazed. They were not by any means the only Top Posters to be left off the List.
They now have ‘Honorable Mentions’. What more can a poster ask?
Even if I’m not able to post much on pb.com those days, I would like to wish a big merry christmas to pb.com community
89 “I meant to ask “Are unemployed single mothers less likely to vote?”.”
Types. There’s plenty of single mothers who thought they were in a long-term relationship and then found out they weren’t. They vote similar percentage to anyone else - and 60/40 along lines of economic self-interest same as most people.
Then there’s the ever-growing number who are the result of the destruction of family life at the bottom of the totem pole. They don’t vote much if at all but not because they’re single mothers but because most people in Chavistan don’t vote seeing as the Fabian style welfare system basically turns adults into permanent toddlers.
(Purely anecdotal obviously)
76. Antifrank “The conclusion that I drew is that no day is suitable for an election. I wonder whether Gordon Brown will come to the same conclusion.”
Lol that really says it all. If the January polls are somewhere near hung parliament territory and assuming the UK comes out of recession in the fourth quarter of 2009 Brown should really go for broke and call it for late February or early March. Concerns about international conferences, European Council meetings, schools being open or shut, GMT or BST etc are all really rather irrevelant and/or trivial. The British political class do seem to overly fuss about such things and quite frankly I doubt any of them will make the slightest difference to the election outcome. The Budget as a launching pad is another matter of course but the danger there is political advantage from it could accrue either way.
For me the election campaign is the big thing and possibly the only thing that might sway public opinion at this late stage.
Brown should seize the initiative and spring an early surprise (unless the January polls are especially poor in which case we are back to Antifrank’s comment quoted above!).
May I take this opportunity to wish Christmas greetings to all. (Unless you are in Scotland, in which case may I wish you Christmas grittings. But look on the bright side - it keeps the Midge low for a few weeks!)
May the New Year bring you much joy. But let’s face it, it probably won’t. 2010 will be a hard old year…here’s hoping our Betters can at least make some cash along the way!
Peace and goodwill.
I agree that Hurd and Major incurred no credit over Bosnia - although it’s going too far to say that the British and French governments aided the Serbs. It was more a case of considering Bosnia a “far away country of which we know little of nothing.”
I think that on balance, we were right to intervene in Kossovo; we prevented a disaster. But, on balance, we did much more harm than good in Iraq.
Mike @85: “I’m trying to work out what to do.”
Don’t worry about it.
And I’m sure Rod won’t mind waiting for the “political tipster of the decade” award he’ll be due if he’s right about a Hung Parliament…
119. Antifrank. I disagree with you here (having just voted for you in the POTY poll!). There is quite a lot of evidence that Serbs did want to obliterate Muslims certainly. Karadzic in particular appears to have been guided by a idiosyncratic view of history, in which the Serbs had defended Europe from the Ottoman - at for example the Battle of Kosovo in 1381.
From Iain Dale’s site:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pd7zOTQ3B_c&feature=player_embedded
Brown likes the power but not the responsibility. If he was so all powerful at the Treasury, he ought to stand up and tell the Chilcott inquiry what he has privy to at the time. Are we supposed to believe he was out of the loop or not?
In any case, would Blair’s testimony absolve Brown, I doubt it. Blair isn’t going to let Brown off the hook, if the inquiry is using him as an Aunt Sally. Brown is hoist by his own petard, as he appointed the chairman, set up the inquiry, framed its terms of reference, and its methods. Once again the Smithsom-Thomas rule applies.
Best wishes for Christmas, and Happy New Year.
Afghanistan in to 2/1 on the Queen’s speech market.
Is it just me or are the shops dead? Just popped to my local Tesco to buy firelighters [ I'm not bothering with logs anymore
] and it was quieter than a Thursday lunchtime.
Almost all the shelves were full, lots of fresh veg and bread - what’s happened to the plague of locusts that normally stockpiles even gravy browning and bin liners during the festive season?
Merry Christmas to everyone on PB - what an amazing year it’s been so far [and Gordon is still here against all the predictions...], fingers crossed we have a silly season story to liven up the next few days!
Plato xxx
The Senate has now voted for healthcare reform. So despite all the criticism of Obama he has now made the most progress of any president on the issue in his first term and a bill must now be likely to pass. By contrast Clinton hadn’t even got to a first vote by the mid-terms!
138 - Supermarkets are ALWAYS dead on Xmas eve. I worked in retail for a while and they cancelled all leave for Xmas week but then on the eve itself there were more staff than customers.
And a merry Xmas from me too.
Its been a profitable way to spend the recession, so Seasons Greetings to all (and sundry)
Here’s a festive tip.
http://www.donation4charity.org/blog/2009/donation4charity/dont-follow-the-herd-this-christmas-with-cowsnthings/
re 110. JackW said he did not want to compete.
As for predictions of the decade let’s wait until June. If it is a hung parliament then Rod Crosby should get all the accolades.
I’ve yet to make a prediction for the overall general election outcome. There are still too many uncertainties.
HYUFD @139, impressive that Obama and Reid managed to get the votes of 60 Democrats (if you count Sanders). Quite an achievement considering America only elected 58.
138. Opposite case here yesterday - at our local Morrisons every till was staffed and they had extra customers because the local ASDA had closed its doors for a while, they were so busy.
As for full shelves, supermarkets have very efficient logistic networks these days.
142, only if the voting is legitimate. If postal voting defies expectations in numerous key marginals and the odd register goes walkies…
re 139. So US legislators work right through until Christmas eve - unlike our lot of lazy, expense-fiddling b*stards.
It’s great so see a legislature working rather that the spoof operation we have here where MPs don’t see it as their role to scrutinise new laws. Instead they go about trying to act as super local councillors or social workers.
Joyeux noel to all. And a happy 2010 under a 50 seat Tory majority.
Merry Christmas Everyone
I’m going to be logging off shortly in order to avoid death-by-rolling-pin.
I just realised that my post thanking those who made kind comments about me on the nominations thread didn’t get through (posted from my netbook and I forgot to ensure that the name/email fields were filled in. So thanks to those who complimented me - it made my day.
See you all in a couple of days, hopefully.
More with tim on Yugoslavia than Antifrank. The Serbs ethnic cleansing, masscres of men, women & children may not have been genocide on scale attempted by the Hitler and the Hutu but had many characteristics of genocide. Hard to differentiate between the Turkish destruction of Armenia and the killings of Armenians during WWI and the Serbs actions against Bosniaks, Croats and other minorities.
Positive action by UK, France & Germany, with the backing of the US could have prevented the worst, if not all. The Major & Mitterand governments prevented action, mere words on arms embargoes & UN safe havens and an equivalence being given to aggressor and victim. I was ashamed of much Hurd said and much of what was done in the name of the British Government. IMHO it is a stain on the Major Government that will colour history’s judgement.
It’s instructive comparing Obama and Blair. Both were elected with unprecedented goodwill and political capital. Only Obama spent that to achieve something meaningful; Blair just looked to obtain another term.
John B, that’s ok, I voted for tim.
I’m queuing to check into a flight so can’t respond fully now. It’s not a festive subject so I’ll wait till the next time it comes up.
146. I wonder how Parliament would work here, if you had to get 60% of MPs to pass a controversial bill?
Merry Christmas to one and all.
I’m off for my usual Xmas Eve drinkies. I’m in the office on Christmas Day and Boxing Day so I’ll be around for those who are online then.
And it would be churlish not to thank those who mentioned me on the nomination threads. I try and provide honest assessment and will endeavour to cut out the Tory bias in 2010, though it might be hard.
Until I prove my Lib Dem credentials in May anyway
Off topic but an interesting read:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704304504574609941325925348.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
50. Is that a joke?
Obama has been there 12 months and has achieved nothing so far! If ever there was an airhead it is Obama. The only thing he is a master of is waffle, and receiving pointless ‘prizes’ from his Marxist cronies in Norway.
He first act as President was to hand the entire administration over to Clinton era hacks, and replace the CIA department heads with Marxist nutcases.
Obama is simply grammatical but vacuuous. Bush was ungrammatical but purposeful. It is a difference of style over substance. Of course there are plenty superficial types that can’t tell the difference.
150 Blair was the British Clinton, a man more concerned with making himself and his party electable than achieving real change. Obama is more of a reformer, but I think that it was only Bush that made him and the need for real change possible, had McCain won in 2000 I expect Hillary would have won in 2008 restoring the Clinton centrist brand!
Just in case I don’t log in for the next couple of days let me just say now.
Happy Christmas Everyone
and I hope that others have been more successful in receiving packages through the Royal Mail than we have been.
81 - Iain Dale has an update now.
the second song is even better.
155 - I am sorry but the healthcare bill IS meaningful and while not perfect is one of the biggest legislative changes in the US for decades!
157 - Thank God the Tories will privatise it next year!
59.
‘Government is not the solution to our problems, government is the problem.’
82 - I see you have downgraded from “be proud of” to “must live with”
Good man, precious little of your Iraq adventure to be proud of
155 Meaningful healthcare reform has been on the “To Do” lists for US presidents since Teddy Roosevelt. To describe it as nothing is simply ignorance. Whether you agree with the final bill or not, one can not argue that it is not a significant achievement.
Merry Xmas Everybody!
Are you refreshing round the clock to read it all?
It’s the site where every punter has a ball
A few have got red noses
There’s green and yellow too
But the loudest at the moment are all blue
So here it is, Merry Xmas
politicalbetting.com
Look to the election now
It’s only just begun
Are you writing us two articles a day?
Can you find the bets you need to make it pay?
Do your readers always tell ya
That the long shots are the best?
Barack, Cathy Ashton and the rest…
So here it is, Merry Xmas
politicalbetting.com
Look to the election now
It’s only just begun
What will the Tory herd do when they see Plato kissing Santa Claus? A-ha
Are you praying that it’ll be too close to call?
Are you hoping that the blues will start to fall?
Do you cling to your assurance
In a theory you have made?
When the Tories get a landslide
Then you’ll be slayed
So here it is, Merry Xmas
politicalbetting.com
Look to the election now
It’s only just begun
So here it is, Merry Xmas
politicalbetting.com
Look to the election now
It’s only just begun
So here it is, Merry Xmas
politicalbetting.com (It’s Poll Time!)
Look to the election now
It’s only just begun
Merry Christmas To all PBers and a hopeful 2010, a year of much change I hope!
160. Not only do they need to privatise it but when they do so they must insist the Crozier and his flunkies are barred from running it. They are an absolute disgrace and as a result so these days is the Royal Mail.
My own depot has 1-2 weeks backlog of parcels. There will be a lot of kids not getting some of their Christmas presents on Christmas Day (my own grown up Kids included).
And the cherry on top is that Crozier screws £1.3 million a year out of the taxpayer (he’s the highest paid public servant of the lot). If Brown wants to attack the rich isn’t it ironic that Crozier’s name does not get mentioned?
164. Aaron.
Awesome!
(Gotta love the Crosby-bashing verse!)
164. Aaron - Excellent stuff - lol
For those curious about how US citizens rate Obama
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
Aaron!!
~APPLAUSE~
That is quite brilliant
150,155,156 re Obama: windbag or reformer?
Leadership, Obama Style, and the Looming Losses in 2010: Pretty Speeches, Compromised Values, and the Quest for the Lowest Common Denominator
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/drew-westen/leadership-obama-style-an_b_398813.html
“What’s costing the president are three things: a laissez faire style of leadership that appears weak and removed to everyday Americans, a failure to articulate and defend any coherent ideological position on virtually anything, and a widespread perception that he cares more about special interests like bank, credit card, oil and coal, and health and pharmaceutical companies than he does about the people they are shafting.”
163. Gulags have been a priority for the Soviet Union since 1919. ‘To describe them as nothing is simply igorance’.
As regressive step is not ’something’ simply because is is a big regressive step.
Britain is bankrupt. The NHS will disappear over the next 20 years regardless of who is in power. An aging population combined with sustained high unemployment and low productivity means a big drop in living standards, and the end of the NHS, unlimited welfare benefits, etc.
The USA already has the best healthcare in the world because it is private, and tops almost every league table for patient care. However it is also living far beyond it’s means. The USA is virtually bankrupt. Raising taxes to fund healthcare is hardly going to achieve anything positive(Medicare and Medicaid have always covered the elderly and the poor - it is a myth that they are not covered. The system does not need any change to cover them).
The USA has few hospital managers and lots of doctors and nurses. Why? The hospitals are private, and have a strong incentive to limit waste and bureacracy. In the UK there is no such incentive. Hence bureaucrats and hospital managers outnumber doctors and nurses in the NHS!!!
Nature teaches a simple lesson. If you refuse to work, you have no right to live.
Any nation that violates this rule faces extinction (and bankruptcy along the way).
‘Government is not the solution to our problems, government is the problem’.
A regressive step is not ’something’ simply because it is a big regressive step.
“Gulags have been a priority for the Soviet Union since 1919. ‘To describe them as nothing is simply igorance’.”
Um, yes. To describe them as nothing would be ignorance.
155 - As for Bush being purposeful, yes he was in totally mismanaging Iraq while leaving the US with a huge deficit after being one of the biggest spending presidents in history!
166 - Ken Clarke has promised to replace the top team, although RM’S new chairman is a successful ex-City fund manager Donald Brydon so he could stay although I agree Crozier needs to go.
Plato @169, probably makes more sense to link to information for all the pollsters rather than just the one that has Obama’s approval rating 5 to 10 points lower than everybody else. (Same trend, though.)
http://www.pollster.com/polls/us/jobapproval-obama.php
And, if you’re talking about US citizens in general, you shouldn’t be talking about Rasmussen at all, since their poll numbers are for likely voters.
175. I wasn’t aware that Clarke had said that. Re Brydon - if he’s new then he can hardly be blamed for dysfunctional management that has been evident for years so I agree and good on Clarke then!
176. Edmund in Tokyo: their poll numbers are for likely voters.
The ones who count, of course.
176. Edmund in Tokyo: their poll numbers are for likely voters.
They’re the ones who count, of course.
Since Ave It isn’t around - here’s something for you all
http://wallpapers-diq.net/en_15_~_Christmas_Kitten.html
Jack Straw was the only senior Cabinet minister to express reservations to me before the war - he said he understood those of us who were hesitating, and he would not support the war under all circumstances, though currently and on balance, he still did. The occasion was a small meeting for MPs who were unsure, IIRC about a week berfore the crucial vote - only about eight of us turned up.
76: antifrank’s polite dissection of Chris Heaton-Harris’s analysis is spot on, and H-H’s view that councillors want a different day is just… odd.
Signing off for a few days - happy Xmas to all! And thanks to those who voted for me - no disgrace to be outvoted by distinguished posters!
172 - The US spends more on administering its Health Care, yes just administering it, than it does on its military.
Its a triumph, Will.
what a great painting
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1238118/Artist-opens-door-Christmas-past-extraordinarily-realistic-Nativity-mural-painted-pub-wall.html
Seasons greetings one and all
LondonStatto @179: “The ones who count, of course.”
Depends what you’re counting. If you’re trying to predict what’s going to happen in the mid-term elections, that’s the right measure. (Assuming the people designing the likely voter screens know what they’re doing.) If you’re trying to show what “US citizens” think, it isn’t.
146. Mike, MPs do what their electorate deem important, hence the focus on casework. I have to say that it’s the Lib Dems who’ve lead the charge in this direction and have reaped the reward from it.
If we want MPs to treat legislation and scrutiny of the executive as a more important part of their job, two things have to happen. One, as mentioned, is that the public has to reappraise their own priorities; the other is that there has to be a much greater acceptance of internal party independence.
At the moment, the highly centralised party structures means that a party with a healthy majority can do almost whatever it likes. Splits are seen as more damaging than bad legislation because that’s how the media game works. MP’s who are disruptive are threatened with deselection, potential MP’s who might be disruptive aren’t even selected in the first place. Loyalty (ie following the whip) is rewarded with office, rebels are only given office to shut them up, because they’ve become experts and proven themselves right (ironically - though it often then ends badly) or because of external factors such as them gaining a sufficient following to necessitate their inclusion.
In any case, that dynamic merely reinforces one of the main problems: that entering government is seen as success and becoming a member of parliament isn’t worth much in its own right - and hence parliament isn’t worth much in its own right.
You’re quite right to bemoan the way things have gone but MPs are only reacting to the lie of the land (though that does reveal a lack of leadership). The big changes are needed at a much deeper level.
173
Will
“The USA has few hospital managers and lots of doctors and nurses. Why? The hospitals are private, and have a strong incentive to limit waste and bureacracy. In the UK there is no such incentive. Hence bureaucrats and hospital managers outnumber doctors and nurses in the NHS!!!”
Hmm
You just happen to have omitted the Medical Insurance Companies.
Since most US healthcare is via insurance.. to count only hospital management and administration is .. well just plain wrong.
Add in the insurance companies - whose staff are ALL administration - and your comparison is a little - how shall I put it kindly ?- skewed the other way from the picture you present…
And of course Medicare is in addition to all that….
Likewise signing off. The nativity play beckons.
May God bless us, one and all, especially poor ailing tiny tim.
Now fetch us some figgy pudding! Splice the fatted capon! And crack open the Tescos half price champagne. Slainte.
165. Aaron. Excellent stuff! Very witty.
If he had really wanted to stop it, he could have resigned. Losing Cook and Straw would have stopped Blair in his tracks. but he didn’t. This was more about Straw putting down a marker so he could point to it in a leadership election, but the ball didn’t roll his way. His entire career shows he’s calculating how to cover his options, he’s a weather cock.
A little bit of Christmas fun Mandy’s first Christmas
re 186. I know it’s been the Lib Dems who’ve made the pathetic line “being local” as an essential requirement for being an MP and I think the party has been totally wrong.
If all a candidate can say about him/herself is that they are local then that diminishes them in my eyes.
Their job is as legislators not social workers.
I want MPs not to enact lunatic legislation like the nonsense regime of CRB checks that 10 million are going to have to go through. Why was this not a parliamentary issue? Because of the power of the government whips and because most MPs are so pathetic.
I want parliamentary groups that have the balls to stick up to the goons from the Whips Office
Mike
Re omitted posters from POTY.
Why not add them from now onwards and increase the number of their votes in proportion to the before and after percentage.
192. Couldn’t agree more.
One reason that MPs become citizens advisors and social workers is that there are so few people or organisations that are, for the ordinary person, “on our side”.
192. But to be fair, Mike, most Lib Dem MPs had to win their seats from other parties. The logistics of fighting a successful campaign as a challenger entails pretty much being ‘on the spot’ at all times.
Hopefully as more and more Lib Dem seats become ’safe’ and can be passed from 1 Lib Dem MP to another, then we can select candidates, not necessarily local, who can see the bigger picture.
Mr Straw, like most of his Cabinet buddies, seems to have sat on the barbed wire fence with one leg on either side. A politician`s painful (but typical) way to play it safe. Not the kind of mate that this old soldier would want to share his foxhole.
The indications from polls and the judgment of the betting is that Lib Dem losses are going to be held at around the 10 level. That would indicate that the “local” factor will prevail over the “vote for a national Govt” factor in making voters minds up. The 30+ councilors that the LDs have as MPs will largely continue….
IF, we did get down to a Labour vs Conservative decision in 90% of voters minds at the GE then we would see a 30+ loss of LD seats. So far that does look very remote.
165 Aaron just awesome. Pb’s own Christmas tune.
I hope to be online regularly but just in case, to one and all I wish you a Happy Christmas and for a New Year in which hopefully lots of PBers will make a mint without shadsy losing his job.
196. Alan - you could add that Lib Dem MPs have generally been as active as other MPs in scrutinizing legislation, and that PR would be the best way to stop government whips railroading bills through Parliament.
The other way to ensure legislation is scrutinized properly would be to establish an elected second chamber with very large (e.g. regional) constituencies, long terms of office (e.g. twelve years or three Parliaments), and no possibility of re-election. As it is I think peers play a useful role in the legislative process; given the legitimacy of democratic election they could do even better.
Maybe Brown can learn from this next time he’s interviewed by Sian Willams:
http://tinyurl.com/ydmhyrp
Seasonal greetings to everyone here on pb.com .
198 The number of Libdem MP’s who had previously served as councillors is by my reckoning 26 but many of those for example Vince Cable and Lembit Opik had been councillors on a council nowhere near theit parliamentary seat .
202. Thanks for the figure Mark. That’s much lower than I thought.
It would be very valuable to do a study to see whether MPs (of all parties) who had previously served as councillors used their time as MPs differently to those who had not.
Aaron brilliant original stuff.
Merry Christmas to you and all pb-ers.
165 Brilliant, Aaron.
Wasn’t St Vince a Labour councillor and further away from his current constituency than mere miles. Or is he?
192 - “You choose a member indeed; but when you have chosen him, he is not member of Bedford, but he is a member of Parliament.”
I think you’re broadly right but you get the chain of causation wrong. MPs don’t spend their time on the social work side at the expense of the legislating side because they choose to. They do it because they have been shorn of other responsibilities and whipped into submission. They do it because there is nothing better for them to do - which I agree is depressing.
As an example, there are still a lot of safe seats around. Members for those seats don’t take a notably more wide-ranging approach to their role because they are freed from the need to compete seriously with “local” candidates. They do the same as those in marginal seats, but with more tea breaks.
I know this is xmas eve and we should put politics to one side, but is this government mad?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/defence/6876281/Army-training-exercises-cancelled-to-cut-costs.html
“Fifty-six training exercises have been dropped this year affecting the regular Army and the Territorial Army.”
“The latest move has raised concerns that service personnel being deployed to Afghanistan are not receiving sufficient training.
General Sir David Richards, the Chief of the General Staff, admitted that scrapping the exercises could pose long-term risks to the effectiveness of British forces.”
‘Tis Christmas eve on P. Betting,
the night of all the year.
PB’ers were feeling festive
and their bellies were full of beer.
When in spoke the PB owner
throughout it’s august halls.
Merry Christmas he said to PB’ers,
but PB’ers answered balls.
this angered the PB owner
and swore by all the gods
they would get no voting rights
the rotten lousy sods.
But up spoke an ancient Pb’er
who had posted hard and long,
“voting here is voluntary,
so don’t you sing that song”.
With apologies to “Christmas day In the Workhouse”
by George Robert Sims
And apologies to OGH as no offence intended.
After all it is Christmas. And a merry one to all PB’ers.
208 floater
“I know this is xmas eve and we should put politics to one side”
I’ve never understood that idea! I have goodwill to all of you (now that JohnR has been banned!)
whatever your politics, and I find the interchange of ideas interesting all the time.
You know, I was in a good mood. Been out with wife and youngest to nativity service.
Full of peace and goodwill to all men…. and then this
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/6873922/Government-accused-of-encouraging-people-to-report-each-other-for-hate-crimes.html
“The Government has been accused of pursuing a campaign to encourage members of the public to report their neighbours for committing so-called ‘hate’ crimes.”
“Ministers have drawn up plans to encourage people to lodge complaints about hate crimes, which they say are being under-reported.
Police have set up special units to investigate allegations, while the Crown Prosecution Service has established ’scrutiny panels’ to look through previous cases to improve on their hit-rate in failed prosecutions.”
So, we can cut expenditure on preparing our soldiers for war because savings need to be made and at the same time spend money on this?
FFS…… Bring on the election
209 weathercock (and Aaron earlier)
210 -John R did seem to be on a one man mission to annoy our Scottish posters (of whatever hue).
I see the FTSE has closed at a post Lehmann high of 5402.
Merry Xmas to Weathercock, Madasafish, Cookie and Marquee Mark.
And any other FTSE Numpties I may have missed.
213 Floater
He never learned that Scots play much cleverer hardball than that in any kind of debate - though especially in politics and religion!
Of course, his big mistake was to be offensive about a senior Scottish LD!
Oh look, Labour tried to bury bad news (and par for the course seem to have been caught in an untruth)
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/transport/6875592/Lord-Adonis-under-scrutiny-over-misleading-Parliament-on-National-Express.html
“The veracity of statements to Parliament by Transport Secretary Lord Adonis has come under scrutiny after official documents appeared to undermine his contention that the Government never renegotiates rail franchises.”
“Lord Adonis, who is already under pressure for going on a family skiing holiday amid transport chaos in Britain, was unavailable for comment.
His department denied that it had deliberately chosen the run-up to Christmas, when Parliament was in recess and Lord Adonis out of the country, to release embarrassing documents after previously blocking earlier FOI requests to see them.
One source familiar with the workings of Government said: “Frankly, it’s a disgrace. This is classic Jo Moore territory”"
“its a disgrace” sums up this government rather well.
214. I could ay you ain’t seen nothin’ yet, but let us welcome the FTSE bounce, even if it is all banker led.
Merry Xmas Tim.
tesrt
209 Brilliant, Weathercock! Not quite Aaron-standard, but brought a smile to my aged lips.
Merry Christmas.
tim, the only poster who can spread goodwill to all men with a score pointing sneer
On a cheerio note, have donned my paper hat, opened the port and about to liberate the content of a box of Thornton’s
220 Golly that port must be stronger than I thought - score pointing=point scoring
218 Bless you.
Obama has got his bill through the Senate, with the Louisiana Purchase - Mary Landreu getting $300 million for her vote in state money, and Ben Nelson with the agreement that whereas every other state will have to fund 50% of the Medicare bill, Nebraska will fund 0% with Uncle Sam picking up the tab for ALL of it.
So who wins on this bill so far:
1) Big Pharma - they wanted a ban on insurance companies allowing consumers to buy their drugs where they are cheaper - Canada - and they got it
2) insurance companies, who will have many new clients
3) lawyers, whose support was conditional on abandoning tort reform, and they got that too
Now comes the committee stage with House and Senate getting together. The public option is still in the House bill, but is VERY unlikely to survive. As the bill only passed the house by a whisker the first time through, it will be interesting to see what the final bill looks like (hint:it will look a lot like the Senate bill).
ABC’s London correspondent was on the BBC World Service this morning to discuss the health care bill. He had just returned from a 2 week trip to the US, and he said what I and several others have said before: it is astounding that this administration has got itself in the position of having its flagship domestic bill so unpopular that it had to cut expensive deals to get their own members to support it.
Weathercock
I didn’t know the original rhyme. Naturally I was acquainted with various rude versions, my favorite being:
‘Twas Christmas day in the harem
The Eunuchs were laying around
Fourty naked harem girls were laying on the ground
In walks the mighty Sultan
And to his Eunuchs calls:
“What do you want for Christmas Lads?”
The Eunuchs answered:”Tidings of comfort and joy, comfort and joy….” etc.
Thanks again.
Merry Christmas to all PBers from sunny and not too cold Atlanta, GA USA.
If you want to know where Santa is right now, NORAD can tell you:
http://www.noradsanta.org/en/index.html
Afternoon all
Christmas greetings to all PB contributors and lurkers from me and special thanks to OGH and Robert for providing this place of debate and entertainment and sound punting advice (on occasion).
On a massively unrelated topic, Glenn Beck was enthusing over Jon Huntsman Snr on his show last night. I know the son was touted as a potential GOP candidate in 2012 before his appointment as Ambassador to China but could he still be a runner in 2016 ?
220 - And a merry Xmas to you, may all your melting snowmen resemble Mr Delingpole.
223- One of the more touted of the health care reform benefits was the abolition of the ‘pre-existing condition’ trap.
It turns out that this is not true. In an interview on NPR this morning he explained that when he signs the bill, it will enable most people, in many circumstances, to be able to purchase ‘catastrophic’ insurance coverage.
So not abolish the pre-existing condition problem, then.
Of course the committee stage may revise this and really abolish it.
#214 Lehman (Brothers).
216 Sooner we can get Andrew away from the Dark Side the better, the dread influence of the masters of the dark arts are even affecting the decent and honourable members of Brown’s Cabinet
To al Pbers, lurkers & posters a very Merry Christmas and Happy and Prosperous New Year.
227. Simply having a wonderful Christmas, tim?
Pleased to see the F1 site has updated the teams looking forward to 2010.
5 drivers yet to be announced. Testing starts in February, so they should be named shortly.
I also read somewhere that two teams (USF1 and Campos I think) had had the likelihood of their entry called into question by the Poison Dwarf, but both teams have said they’re right on track. Bruno Senna could be interesting to watch, though obviously Schumacher is the story at the moment.
Seasons thoughts to you all
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1TFrO8c_kVQ&feature=related
Merry Christmas one and all. Thanks for all the fun this year, even from those who drive me mad! Here’s to 2010, and getting rid of this discredited shower of an apology of a Government!!!
May I reccoment Bob Marshall Andrews interview on the PM programme this evening. The link wont be up yet, but its a very good one indeed.
Merry Xmas to all pb’ers
PS
tim = Scrooge
Fairytale of Political Betting:
It was Christmas Eve babe
In the drunk tank
Smithson said to me: it’s just PB.com
And then he sang a song
The rare old Frankie Luntz
I turned my face away and dreamed about punts.
Mike backed the Special One
Came in fifty to one
I´ve got a feeling
He’ll remind me and you
So Happy Christmas
I love you PB
I can see a coming time
Where Cameron’s dreams come blue.
Paddy Power makes me cower
But Bill Hill’s full of gold
The spread betting’s a mug’s game
Or at least one for the bold
When you first took my stake on a cold Christmas Eve
You promised me Ladbrokes was waiting for me
You were young you were Blairite
Queen of stupid gobsh1te; when the election was over you howled out for more
MORI polls they were swinging, all the punters they were singing
We swooned over Gordo
Then bet through the night.
And the boys from the PB Tory herd were singing Martin Day
And the bells were ringing out for polling day.
You´re all bums and you´re trolls
You know nothing ’bout polls
Lying there almost broke like a withered old soak
You spinner, you Timbot
You cheap lousy smearbot
Happy Christmas you arse I pray God it´s our last.
And the boys from the PB Tory herd were singing Martin Day
And the bells were ringing out for polling day.
I could have backed Palin
An easy long-odds win
You took my cash from me
When I first found you
I kept collecting tips
Combining with my own
Now I’ve lost my car and home
I built my pension plans on you
And the boys from the PB Tory herd were singing Martin Day
And the bells were ringing out for polling day.
Merry Xmas to one and all - the fesh-tivities are about to start, and the family would lynch me if I’m on the computer.
211 - Re hate crime reporting, I think its great that every comment that is slightly offensive will nowbe considered a hate crime. This should tie up the system so much that it collapses entirely.
214 - Re the FTSE being up, funny that when you print £200bn o new money tht suddenly those with cash run for the hills and buy assets. Next year will see the real impact of the decision to run QE as confidence in Sterling collapses. Either interest rates rise or the pound crashes.
Good to see a rare return from Andrea upthread.
I wish everyone a happy Christmas and add my vote of thanks to Mike, Robert and all the regular posters and helpers that make PB what it is.
I think there have been some notable new names appearing, great to see - as some of us have to resort to lurking, other lurkers start posting!
fwiw my POTY votes go to YS, Eagle bloke, Christine and Plato.
223. “it is astounding that this administration has got itself in the position of having its flagship domestic bill so unpopular that it had to cut expensive deals to get their own members to support it.”
I wouldn’t have thought it was ‘astounding’ at all - given the long-term stance of so-called “moderate” politicians on even modest health care reform, and given the ludicrous 60-vote hurdle in the Senate, it was all fairly predictable.
Reading through the details of the Senate bill, I was pleasantly surprised by how far it still goes - a genuinely good day for America.
Seasoned greetings to all PBers.
I thought I’d repost this from the early hours for those who keep more regular hours.
Just popping on to wish you all a Happy and Peaceful Christmas. The site is lucky to have so many insightful posters and I’ve had many a chuckle this year to thank you all for. It’s been a difficult year in Chez Kristin and you’ve been a great distraction for me, so I thank you all for that.
Best of luck to all the nominees, it sounds cheesy but your all winners.
Mike and Robert, your work is much appreciated and next year I’m sure the site will be pretty lively and I look forward to it.
Mike, I may email you re an idea I have to raise funds for Leukaemia Research if that’s OK,
Oh, and for those of you who are blood donors, I’d like to add a special thanks, over a hundred of you have helped my son this year and he and I will be raising a glass to you on Christmas day.
All the best
Kristin
by Kristin December 24th, 2009 at 12:34 am
happy christmas all
224 Peter the Punter, here is the one I learned on my old aunts knee.
Twas Christmas day in the workhouse
the day of all the year
the paupers were feeling merry
and their bellied were full of beer,
when in strode the workhouse master
throughout its grimy walls,
Merry Christmas he said to the paupers,
but the paupers answered balls.
This angered the workhouse master
and swore by all the gods
that they’ll get no Christmas pudding
the lousy rotten sods.
Then up spoke an ancient veteran
who had fought at the Khyber Pass,
we dont want your Christmas pudding.
Stick it up your arse!
When I first learned this parody many, many years ago, Afghanistan and the Khyber were furthest from our thoughts.
There is an old saying; what goes round comes round, and nothing can be truer than this stupid war.
Ah, well. Merry Christmas to you Peter.
I’m maybe the oldest Scot posting here! - so a little bit of modern history for you.
When I was a kid, ours was the only house that Santa came to at Xmas. All the other kids hung their stockings up on Hogmanay. Shops were open and Scottish papers were published on Xmas Day.
I don’t particularly regret the changes. Times change and all parts of the UK have altered their winter solstice patterns more to the American model.
However, I’ll leave my PB song version till nearer New Year!
Enjoy tomorrow, people.
re my 246
“oldest” - except Jack W of course.
I am sure this has been linked to but the important thing about this article is that clearly the Times and by implication Murdoch is still a Blairite in his heart. New Labour is discredited but Murdoch still supports it as it was the most sychophantic supporter of Rupert. The Sun for the Tories is a desperate attempt by Murdoch’s son to curry favour, but given the stance of the Times and Sky Rupert would prefer Labour. It can only be good for the country if Murdoch no longer heavily influences the Government as he did for all those years under Labour. http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/leading_article/article6966912.ece
Nollaig chridheil
246 - I remember those days well. We used to closedown for the New Year festivities for about 3 days- most people went to work on the 25th Dec.
250 marcia
I refuse to believe that you are of an age to remember that - your granny must have told you about it.