Does this sad news make an early election more likely?
December 27th, 2009
Will Labour want to avoid the by election?
My apologies for immediately thinking of the political implications of the death yesterday of Leicester NW, MP, David Taylor, but that is the way politics is especially during a febrile period like that we are going through at the moment.
Fo the last thing that Labour needs just now is a by election in a marginal where the Tories are the main challengers - and this could become a consideration over the timing of the general election.
Apart from the cost (the expenses limit is £100,000) a Tory victory would add to the pre-general election momentum.
The seat was unaffected by boundary changes and in May 2005 the result was LAB: 21449 (45.5%): CON : 16972 (36%): LD:5682 (12.1%): OTH 3037 (6.4%) - a majority of just 9.5% which would go with a swing of 4.75.
This is one of the leading Tory targets for the general election which they absolutely have to win if they are to stand any chance of securing a majority. If there is a by election it’s hard to see this as anything other than an easy Tory gain.
The question is whether Labour would prefer a contest to take place, presumably in February/March and stick with the suggested May 6th election date or whether this makes the possibility of March 25th or April 8th that more likely?
My guess is the latter though they could try to leave the vacancy open.
Mike Smithson
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1
Repost: Balls wants to be Supreme Leader:
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/5665961/balls-pitches-for-the-leadership.thtml
On this topic: couldn’t it just be delayed for ages? The Speaker’s constituency was without an MP for aaaages.
Agree that it makes an earlier election more likely, but doesn’t it also increase the chance of an election in June when people are more likely to have forgotten about it?
Condolences to the family of the late David Tayor.
Very sad news firstly. Secondly, I don’t think it will effect the GE date, they will simply try to extend it to May and front it out if the GE is scheduled for then.
They will certainly try to avoid a By-election if they can at all costs.
Perhaps the danger for Labour if a byelection took place would not be an easy Conservative win but Labour falling to third or worse.
An easy Conservative win in a seat that they are pretty certain to win at the general election could be shrugged off as Norwich North was. Labour finishing behind the BNP would lead to claims that the WWC has abondoned Labour.
On the other hand if Labour did finish behind the BNP it could in turn revitalise the Labour core vote for the general election.
In theory if a by-election was held in say March, then the winner would only be an MP for a very small number of week until parliment would be dissovled in April for a May election.
6, maybe, or maybe hard leftists would flock to the Lib Dems in more areas, considering Labour a lost cause.
David Taylor was standing down following death threats:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/leicestershire/7401797.stm
Alternatively, he knew he couldn’t win.
Either way, I can’t see this altering the GE date.
The citizenry of this country will enter 2010 as at the entrance to a dark tunnel.
On January 1st Vat goes up to 17.5%.
During the first two weeks of Jan., the last three monthly bills start to come in.
Fares are going up all over.
The GE campaign will start in earnest.
Also this forecast: winter will be worse this year than last.
So much for global warming
6 - it could bring out the core vote but Labour cannot win with just the core vote at the General Election, they need to win the floating vote.
Reading his wikipedia entry, it seems like he was a pretty good MP as well (although he was standing down). Very sad.
10 My train season ticket is going down by a smidgen .
My condolences to the MP’s family.
Brown clinging on to hope, has obviously managed to convince himself of the likelihood of an economic recovery by May!!! And he is, characteristically, pushing the election date forward as far as he can.
He is optimistically trying to claim the end of the recession in January.
The reality is that the banks still need more huge cash injections to stem losses and bad debts, revenues are falling at about GBP 10 billion a month, and Brown’s 2009 borrowing is probably nearer 18% of GDP than the 12% claimed in the PBR (228 billion/1.26 trillion).
In 2010 it could surge to somewhere near 25% of GDP, double that of Greece.
Maybe the man with right name, that best describes it all, will rise to the top of this hopeless mass of debt and deceit - Balls.
What this will mean is brown announcing the election date soon. If he doesnt, he wont be able to prevent a byelection as presumably they could be without mp representation for 6months which is unacceptable. So im guessing he’ll announce march/april/may pretty soon as this will quell the need for a byelection as itll seem pointless
15, that would require him to have made or to quickly make the decision. Has he?
7. Yes, expect arguments about cost of the by-election to start being heard if, as I suspect, Labour’s preferred option is to keep the vacancy open.
Even a by-election in February would mean the MP would only be in office for about seven weeks if the election is May 6 - and obviously, the more time passes, the less time his successor would serve before the dissolution. It might be a bit embarrassing to keep it open for four months but it would be in keeping with Brown’s style.
IIRC both Crewe and Norwich North were called quickly. As was Glasgow East and all saw bad Labour defeats.
Glenrothes and Glasgow NE were both delayed and saw easy Labour holds.
What is the last date the byelection has to be called by?
Surely if the general election is called before the actual byelection takes place the byelection is then cancelled?
15 If it were a council byelection it would automatically not be held under the 6 month rule .
18. “Surely if the general election is called before the actual byelection takes place the byelection is then cancelled?”
That is so.
If my basic geography is still working Leicester is close to Northants. Squeeky-bum poster…?
[PS: Morkel has taken a wicket...!
]
15. ryans
“If he doesnt, he wont be able to prevent a byelection as presumably they could be without mp representation for 6months which is unacceptable.”
Unacceptable to who?
Do you really think Brown gives a toss if the people of Ashby and Ibstock are without an MP for a few months?
Going out for lunch, but the parallel with (I think) Wirral West (David Hunt’s old seat) in 1997 springs to mind. The Conservatives lost this seat a few months before the General Election. What were the timescales then?
20. DH
So when is the last day that a byelection has to be called by?
So long as a general election is called within a time shorter than the combined maximum waiting period plus the actual byelection campaign period then the byelection wont take place.
23. Sorry, that should be Wirral South and Barry Porter.
Leics NW from 2009 locals
Con 12874 41.0%
Lab 6438 20.5%
BNP 5807 18.5%
LD 5549 17.7%
Ind 695 2.2%
In some respects eerily similar to Norwich N, with Labour in danger of slipping to 4th….
Don’t the BNP have a local county council councillor in the area? Wonder if Labour could come fourth in a by-election?
23 - the Wirral South by-election details
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wirral_South_by-election,_1997
If Labour polling improved in Jan/Feb, a braver man than Brown might be tempted to go for a March/April by-election, which if won (huge gamble) would be a fantastic springboard and motivator for the GE campaign.
However, the polling numbers don’t look close enough to risk this tactic in NW Leicestershire, and we know the Brown approach to risk. I still wouldn’t rule this out 100%.
There will be no By-Election, Labour minor players will be heard talking about the cost of it if it becomes an issue.
Simples
23. Richard III
It was Wirral South.
Barry Porter MP died 03/11/96, the byelection was 27/02/97.
A similar timescale would mean that the byelection wouldn’t take place if a May general election occurred.
My sincere condolences to David Taylor’a family and friends.
He was tremendously well liked and respected in the Commons as a dilligent, energetic and principled man and a great constituency MP.
I think NPMP should move the by-election writ. He reminds us of the existence of all those Tories for Labour in the East Midlands. Naiuled on Labour hold it would seem.
FPT 285. Brown or whoever is leading Labour will be faced by taunts of “chicken” if it’s not held within a reasonable time.
The nearest example I can think of was Meriden.
The Tory MP died on 13th Jan 1997 and the writ had not been moved by the date of the Major’s request for a dissolution on 17th March 1997.
They can move the writ for the by-election, but it could be overtaken by the dissolution. This has occurred several times, most recently IIRC at Gravesend in 1955…
28-Don’t think Labour would get 34% in a by-election.
Barry Porter died on 3rd November 1996 and the by-election was held on 27 February 1997. On this precedent I envisage labour holding out.
As a shocked consituent of NW Leicestershire, David Taylor is a great loss not only to our area but also to the House of Commons.
All the activity in this constituency is from the Andrew Bridgen and the Conservative Party, the Labour Candidate Ross Wilmott has largely been anoymous since his selection. One would expect a by-election would produce a bad result for Labour in a seat they won from the Tories in 1997.
If I was GB I would allow the seat to remain vacant until the General Election, choosing to fill this vacancy, will I’m 95% certain kill any momentum both himself and the Labour Party are attempting to build.
Nevertheless, this should not distract from the great loss of David Taylor. Extremely popular in the area, a rare breed of politician who worked unbelievably hard for this constituency.
OK, David Herdson and another richard have convinced me, Brown will keep the leave vacant and it won’t make any difference to the timing.
As long as it looks like there may well be an election in March, Labour can keep quiet about it officially and let someone brief that it would be a waste as there may well be an election in March. Then if it becomes clear there won’t be an election in March, they can hold off because there might be an election in April. Repeat until May or June, whenever they were actually planning to have the election.
Chris Read
The polls are going to improve enough to give Labour a chance of winning Leics NW.
Another example of Cameron’s luck is that Crewe, Norwich N and Leics NW are all seats that had shown strong swings to the Conservatives in local elections. They might have instead had to make gains in seats that they were struggling in locally or were demographically trending away from them. For example a byelection now in adjacent Loughborough could be very awkward for the Conservatives.
35. Indeed - on recent form they would be likely to poll only around 20%, i.e. less than half the vote share they achieved in 2005…
Assuming a by-election would see a significant Lab to Con swing (seems reasonable), if my understanding of Rod’s theory is correct, Labour has a better chance of winning the general election if there isn’t a by-election than if there is (assuming the holding of the by-election or not to be the only variable).
FPT “19.i have money @ 3-1 on Obama’s approval rating to reach at least 50 on the RCP average before 2010. Will the last aborted terror attack give him a bounce?”
African bod with muslim-sounding name trying to blow up americans on a plane, hmm i wonder if that will help Obamma’s ratings?
@@@
11 “it could bring out the core vote but Labour cannot win with just the core vote at the General Election, they need to win the floating vote.”
This is true but if they don’t retain some of their dwindling core vote they’ll have no base to rebuild from.
Alternatively they could decide to give up on pretending not to hate the kulaks, which they’d prefer anyway, and go full out to fight the LDs for the guardianista-ethnic votes. Seeing as (imo) the Cameroons won’t even attempt to stop Labour’s mass voter-import scheme ZNL will be back in business soon enough as a UK version of the Democrats.
Best price Cons 2/5 in this seat (at the GE) does this make a gain more likely?
LondonStatto
You have revealed one of the flaws in RodC’s byelection model.
39. Yes a quick overview of the local results shows some strikingly divergent trends in different parts of Leicestershire - Labour’s vote in total meltdown in Leics NW and some other areas, but holding up quite well in Loughborough town, as you note.
I assume there is an ethnic dimension to this - once again we see Labour’s support retreating into the ‘core core’, with the traditional working class support evaporating and only the ‘new’ payroll vote staying onside.
42 - Political Betting through a BNP/Racial prism is unlikely to be profitable.
noisy summer
It was almost certain already.
I suppose if Labour leaves the constituency without an MP until the general election it will annoy a few extra voters.
28. I noticed this from the 1997 Wirral South By-election:
21st Century Foresters……. Colin Palmer
Who the hell were the 21st Century Foresters? and is Colin Palmer a long lost relation of NPMP?
41.
41. Yes, it has to be an undoubted Con gain. Who would want that a few weeks before the dissolution?
My guess is the Gravesend scenario is the most likely. Interestingly, there is no statutory provision for this, and on the rare occasions it has happened, the constituency returning officer has taken the initiative in cancelling the election, on the grounds that no-one can be elected to a Parliament that has been ceased to exist (been dissolved).
50. typo “no-one can be elected to a Parliament that has ceased to exist (been dissolved).”
46 Lots of different kinds of racist.
45. runnymede
Leics NW is very much a disgruntled WWC constituency, Loughborough is more non-white and studenty and guardianista.
The great irony is that the ‘Cameron Project’ was aimed at the voters of places like Loughborough not Leics NW.
Sad news.
I am not sure it affects General Election timing now. I believe Brown will want a fairly long election campaign as a last throw of the dice. So if the by-election is scheduled for April or even late March it will be overtaken by events (all by-elections are off the moment an election is called).
43 Noisy
We on PB have the benefit of one or two locals, notably Woody 662, who have a fair handle on constituencies in the area. He tipped this seat up as a Tory gain some months back and I got on at 8/13, so naturally the 2/5 wouldn’t appeal to me now.
Not sure if the death makes any difference to those odds but I am sure we all agree that it’s a sad end to what seems to have been an honorable career.
Thoughts are with the family, well ahead of all other considerations.
I was very sorry to hear this news on the previous thread. I knew he was standing down and from what I had picked up from BBC Parliament he was spending his remaining time in the Chamber holding the executive to account with some gusto. It’s always the good ones that go first.
With regard to the By Election.
1. I understand the view that this might bring a General Election forward but i just don’t belive a little local difficulty will weigh on a prime Minister making the lonliest of decisions let along a meta brooder like Brown.
2. I don’t often quote Mark Senior but he is right to riase the 6 month rule in local government. If Mr taylor had been a councillor there would be no By Election. Labour will be able to mount a semi decent case that they don’t want to blow x amount of tax payers cash
electing someone for 6 or 7 weeks.
basically not having an election is difficult but no where near as difficult as losing one just before an epic General Election.
The clincher is of course Runnymeads astute reading of the demographics. It looks like the kind of seat which Labour might not lose but come third in. With a weak local Lib Dem party that third may well go Other/BNP and no one in the political class will want that in the current climate.
My deepest sympathies to the Taylor family,obviously.
I come down with Mike Smithson’s hunch there will NOT be a by-election- a quick by-election in late January would inevitably see a Tory victory with a big swing- echoing the Wirral South by-election of 27/2/97,whose swing largely mirrored the absolute carnage the then governing party experienced on 1/5/97.
One point-I’ve just counted the days between Barry Porter passing away on 3/11/96 and the 27/2/97 by-election-116 days elapsed.
116 days from now will be 22nd April 2010- 11 days before a hypothetical 6th May GE- I seriously believe there will bot be a by-election,or if there is,it will echo the history of Wirral South eerily
Looking at the BNP policy for wealth creation and industry, the following below shows once and for all that the BNP is a far left party and not a right wing one as many labour supporters claim.
The wealth that is generated must be shared and Trickledown Theory and the Neo-Liberal Free Market Theory have both failed to do that.
A British Nationalist government will use the power of the State to enact legislation that directly benefits British workers. The Cameron Conservatives on the other hand want to continue the ‘withering away of the state’ and transform our society into a ‘Charityocracy’ where tax payers money is used to fund charities who then build new workhouses and charity housing for people to go to and beg from when they are in trouble. We as British Nationalists find this idea repugnant.
The role of the British state in the 21st century is to claim back the powers that have been devolved to supra-national bodies such as the EU and WTO and to start to pass new laws that are targeted and designed to benefit British workers directly.
NOW WE CAN SEE WHAT THEY’RE REALLY LIKE!
It also means that Labour seats in the midlands and north are at risk from BNP candidates in these areas, not to win seats perhaps, but to make their voting totals much smaller than they otherwise would be.
57 Oops -there are 14 days obviosly between 22nd April and 6th May
54. “(all by-elections are off the moment an election is called).”
Perhaps not…
The fine legal point is whether the “convention” I mentioned @50 applies to a by-election whose polling day was already scheduled for a day between the PM’s announcement of a dissolution and the actual dissolution…
If the election is called for 6 May, when would parliament be dissolved? Sometime in early March? The clock really is running down and very quickly for this government.
other small ramification of this sad news is that it removes a Known Unknown for the Liberal Democrats. The easiest way for the party to break out of its current holding pattern in the polls was a by election to happen in the right kind of Labour seat. This wasn’t one of them and wether it will be held at all is very moot. Even if a really juicy one came up now it would almost certainly not be held. What ever is said publically I suspect the party will be quite happy if this one is never held to avoid having to spend £100k to hang onto third and see of the BNP.
61 A May 6th election conventionally would be called in early April,with the dissolution a few days later- others more expert in constitutional niceities could give you the exact figures.
I do recall the campaign ,and minimal notice required for a dissolution,is 17 working days,not including weekends and Bank Holidays,so as 17 working days cross 3 weekends,in practice this mean 23 days in total
58 BNP = Labour’s bastard child.
PtP- quite agree, very sad event.
Labour will not call a byelection.
They will delay it then say it is not needed.
Sad news and I’d like to offer my condolances to the family of Mr Taylor.
On the politics though, one of RodCrosby’s sticks that he regularly beats the Tories with is that they haven’t achieved any 20%+ by election swings in this Parliament! Given the regional polling samples all paint a catastrohically bleak picture for Labour in the Midlands, this by election would, IMO, be quite capable of producing a 20% Conservative swing. Labour will surely be doing everything it can to avoid this by election?
63. In 1997 the announcement of dissolution was on March 17th
The dissolution actually occurred on April 8th
Polling was May 1st
So, in that example, a by-election which polling day was already scheduled after April 8th would be countermandered or superseded, although if the polling date was between March 18th and April 7th it would not be so clear-cut, and could be open to legal challenge…
One other minor point is that its the second event in 24 hours which makes “early” election speculation useful to Gordon. The obvious response to another round of Coup speculation is to retaliate with early election fever reminding people jow close the window could be. When they are defending the decsion not to have this By Election the prospect of a march poll would make it even more of a waste of money. This may have very minor betting ramifications.
63-When was Parliamnet dissolved in 2005? Thought it was early March.
70 Early APril, I think. Most elections last three to four weeks at most 1997 was an unusually long election campaign lasting six weeks I think?
70. Blair asked for dissolution on April 5th (delayed a day due to death of Pope), dissolution was April 11th, polling May 5th…
But if the election is in May, won’t we need a Budget?
Here’s some interesting thoughts. The HoC Research Paper on the subject (http://www.parliament.uk/commons/lib/research/rp2009/rp09-044.pdf) says (p20):
In 1973 a Speaker’s Conference on Electoral Law recommended that the three month rule on the moving of a writ be embodied in a resolution of the House.
1. The Conference, conscious that the intervals before the issue of byelection writs have on occasion been unduly prolonged, put forward the following guidelines:
(a) The motion for a writ for a by-election should normally be moved within three months of a vacancy arising.
(b) It is inexpedient for by-elections to be held in August, or at the time of local elections in April/May, or in the period from mid-December to mid-February before (under present arrangements) a new Register is issued.
(c) Consequently, if this restriction should bring the date of the by-election into one of these periods, the by-election should if practicable be held earlier. If this is impractical the period should be lengthened by the shortest possible additional time. The total period (from vacancy to the moving of the writ) should not be more than four months.
(d) In the fifth year of a Parliament, some relaxation of these guidelines should be allowed, in order if possible to avoid by-elections being held immediately before a general election.
Obviously this was never passed as a resolution, but were it to have been that would leave a latest possible writ date of 27th of March which would itself lead to a poling day too close to the local vote in May, therefore (according to point c) requiring an *earlier* date of writ calling, *unless* of course one were to interpret point d as permitting waiting till the Gen Elect itself!
Also worth of note is that the convention of the Chief Whip of the party of the deceased / retired MP moving the writ within 3 months is not a statutory obligation (either within 3 months OR the whip of the relevant party).
73. Theres no law that says we MUST have a budget in spring. Labour could fudge it by saying the Bidget will be after the election - Of course how that would play with voters and the markets is another thing….
58. Got to agree that on a quick first reading, that’s tempting. However, how do the BNP propose to ensure control by “British workers” ….. and what does the term mean anyway ….. where do third generation Afro-Caribbeans fit in, for example?
However, that demonstrates how accurate weathercock’s analysis is, and how much Labour have to fear. Guardianistas reminded of Iraq on one side, alienated “traditional working class” voters on the other.
Not a lot left really!
75, to be honest, I’d prefer fudge to a bullshit Budget that is likely only to harm the country still further.
“The wealth that is generated must be shared and Trickledown Theory and the Neo-Liberal Free Market Theory have both failed to do that.”
This is clearly untrue.
62. YS - yes, another embarassment like that in Norwich North wouldn’t be very helpful for the Lib Dems.
53. Another Richard - I’m not sure that’s quite right. I think the Cameron project is rather aimed at suburban swing voters, including those leaning toward the Lib Dems. It isn’t aimed at ethnics, lefty students or hard core Guardianistas.
Its target is people who have many conservative characteristics but have developed a degree of distaste for the Conservative Party.
76, benefit junkies, the mentally disadvantaged, tribal voters. But I repeat myself.
I wish that we had both fixed term parliaments and a fixed (short) period between a seat becoming vacant and the by-election.
81. I think one of Camerons promises was to have fixed elections at 4 yearly intervals.
runnymede
I disagree, the suburban swing voters, or ‘Tony’s Tories’ as someone described them, were always going to return to the Conservatives at some point.
The Cameron Project was about reaching out to people who had never before thought about voting Conservative. The ‘vote blue go green’, increased overseas aid, ‘heir to Blair’ progressive image was aimed at this ‘urban trendy’ demographic.
80. MD
In other words Scots.
82 - Thats less likely than Chris Grayling becoming Home Secretary.
Although I’ll take a bet of £50 at evens that Cameron doesn’t introduce it.
I can’t help but think that cynical ploy will be a “toe in the water” rouse. Have a guess at size of loss, play a tactic and see what happens to the outcome. Do better and see much of the same at a GE, do worse, and then see Brown stand down as Leader but remain PM until the GE.
They will want to see an improvement on the 2:1 at this years local election. If they get it up significantly, then it will be game on. If they don’t watch the Labour party implode with everybody fighting for themselves. The only continunity will be at cabinet level where they’ll (I’d guess) see the Jack Straw 5 come into play, as posted in a previous thread.
I can’t help but think that cynical ploy will be a “toe in the water” rouse. Have a guess at size of loss, play a tactic and see what happens to the outcome. Do better and see much of the same at a GE, do worse, and then see Brown stand down as Leader but remain PM until the GE.
They will want to see an improvement on the 2:1 at this years local election. If they get it up significantly, then it will be game on. If they don’t watch the Labour party implode with everybody fighting for themselves. The only continunity will be at cabinet level where they’ll (I’d guess) see the Jack Straw 5 come into play, as posted in a previous thread.
So in answer to the question, Yes and as early as possible….
45
Loughboro’s a university town: thousands of likely-to-voters on the public teat.
Seems to me the Cameroons are aimed at Tony’s Tories - which makes sense - problem is a lot of those sort of people are easily chased off by the “nasty party” tag and the people who get to define what “nasty” is are anti-conservative - bit of a Catch 22 for them. The strategy is understandable from their point of view but makes them of zero use to the kulaks.
85. Tim, I am 75 years old and will PG be 76 in April.
Cameron has 4 years to introduce this bill/promise so if I live till 80 I can hope to collect.
Your on! Bets confirmed with Peter.
I’d rather not comment on the politcal aspect, and just comment on David, who is actually the only MP to die since 1997 whom I knew well. As well as being a really nice guy, as Stewart generously notes above, he stood out by being a tolerant, easy-going figure on the hard left. He was a member of the Campaign Group throughout and rebelled on numerous issues, but never had a cross word to say about anyone and would listen seriously to any opinion. He had no discernible ego, and if he had a view on any of the leadership issues he never expressed it to me - he was a kind-hearted intellectual socialist, seemingly indifferent to the ups and downs of personal fortunates, including his own.
He hadn’t really tired of politics, but felt that another five years took him too far into retirement age and he’d like to do a few other things too. It’s sad he won’t be able to.
This is the seat I work in, but out of respect for David Taylor I wouldn’t want to talk about campaigns and that sort of thing for the moment. David Taylor was a hugely admired MP with a following from supporters of every party (indeed a look at the county council election share compared the the General vote share shows his personal appeal). Thoughts are with his family and friends (of which there are many) at this point.
83. A discussion worthy of a thread in its self. I err towards Runnymeads analysis. I’ve spoken to so many people canvassing in the 1997 to 2005 period who were in every case a diagnosable conservative but who simply hated the Conservative Party or more often what they thought the Conservative party was. I understand the argument that the normal radioactive half lives would kick in and that opposition would be detox enough. However I suspect Camerons real “genius” relatively speaking was seeing this. A small but definate group of voters lost to the party unnecceserily and for ever simply because of the branding.
There are other aspects to the cameron project which interest me if I get time later. She’ll not be seen as one of the greats and seems widely disliked for it but I still think Theresa May’s ” Nasty Party” speech was the Turning Point ( or metanoia ). She could retropsectively be seen as John the Baptist to the Project.
41 London Statto
The Difficulty for Labour will now be, finding anyone to fight a seat thats probably a guaranteed loss. Will they try and parachute someone in, no doubt?
“febrile period”? we’re in the week between xmas day and new years day, its the exact opposite of febrile
95, maybe Brown will parachute in David Miliband?
95 - Taylor had already announced he was standing down after receiving death threats, Labour have a candidate in place (although some have suggested he’s only there to lose)
90 - I wish you long lifer, but find the idea of being named in PBers wills amusing.
I think we should all put our bets in our wills and insist they are read out in front of the relatives.
95: They tend to (understandably) parachute people only into save seats (Milliband and South Shields for example), so I doubt anyone with real ambition will go for it (besides the new LPC has already been chosen).
I would say with 80% certainly that they will just combine it into the general election and not hold a by-election. The mutterings about it will be drowned out by the bigger picture of the general election.
99:What would be IHT implications for bets in our will be ?
Yeah sorry 98, i forgot he was already standing down, theres so many of them going, i can never remember which ones are quitting.
Sad the man did’nt get a chance of a bit of time with his family after retiring. Thats the curveballs life throws at you.
93. …..but I still think Theresa May’s ” Nasty Party” speech was the Turning Point ( or metanoia ). She could retrospectively be seen as John the Baptist to the Project.
by Yellow Submarine December 27th, 2009 at 3:42 pm
Sorry to disagree with you YS ( and incidentally you are almost neck and neck with nabavi) but I think that May’s speech - which I saw and remember - only added to the Tory party woes. No! No John the Baptist, but Salome?
101 - Its not that which worries me, it’s my wifes presumption that I’m having an affair and/or blackmailing a certain Peter of London when the cheques arrive.
95. lauraceallan
David Taylor was standing down next year in any case.
The Labour candidate will be Ross Wilmott, Leader of Leicester council.
From a BNP perspective this would be a dream by-election. ‘If’ it happened of course. There must be at least a 25% chance that the BNP could burst into second place here in a by-election.
North-West Leicestershire has been one of the BNP’s better functioning branches thanks in large part to the superhuman efforts of Wayne McDermott (possibly has posted on here before as ‘Leicester’ or something similar)
BNP strength has been concentrated in the long-defunct mining communities of Coalville,Ellistown and Ibstock but they can poll respectably across the whole district.
Have you voted yet
Wow. The POTY election is getting even tighter - only five votes in it between Yellow Submarine and Richard Nabavi.
To vote click here -
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2009/12/26/the-2009-pb-poster-of-the-year-the-final-round/
93 “She’ll not be seen as one of the greats and seems widely disliked for it but I still think Theresa May’s ” Nasty Party” speech was the Turning Point”
ditto that
99. Slinking out of now, tim?
93 I agree completely re Theresa May’s Nasty Party speech - it was a watershed moment that told it like it was.
I winced when I heard it and it’s been used against them many times since - however, without it - I suspect that the Tories would have lived in denial for a whole lot longer. Widdy’s Something of the Night stuff about Howard was equally spot on and a gift to their opponents.
I like Mrs May - she’s a master of dont-scare-the-horses comment and her ability to remain completely invisible yet participate fully in QT is quite a talent.
TM = Beige.
105 Sad news. As you say they can cite Wirral South or even now Glasgow North East meaning the chances of a By-Election are nil surely?
93/103. What is all this about Theresa May? She comes over as rather dull and for the life of me cannot see her as this saviour.
103 I think May identified the problem - whether they picked the right solution is another question. Personally i think it’s a good short-term solution as far as winning the next election but will make it even harder for them in the long-term. But that’s their look-out.
It doesn’t make any difference. The GE will be in May, and there won’t be a by-election. The Labour Party would obviously be scared stiff of having a by-election and losing a seat, so they just won’t bother moving a writ for one.
In recent years the Labour Party has not had any qualms about having by-elections with undue haste (in one case, moving the writ before the funeral) so they wouldn’t feel any guilt about leaving it vacant for three-and-a-bit months either.
107 Evidence of swing-back, Mike?
My take on global warming.
a. Ice melts
b. More water in seas.
c. More condensation.
d. More water in clouds.
e. MORE RAIN
f. MORE SNOW IN WINTER.
Simples.
GLOBAL WARMING = WETTER
Action we can take,
BUY A HOUSE ON A HILL!
BUY SHARES IN GRIT & SAND?
Grit for roads etc & sand for in bags for flooded areas.
“Sorry to disagree with you YS ( and incidentally you are almost neck and neck with nabavi) but I think that May’s speech - which I saw and remember - only added to the Tory party woes. No! No John the Baptist, but Salome?”
Agreed.
As to the theory behind the ‘Cameron Project’ I think Osborne’s suggestion that the LibDems will be ‘our future coalition partners’ was significant.
The CameronOsborne plan was to get 300 MPs and form a Con-LD coalition of some sort. Hence the constant lovebombing of the LibDems and the whole progressive ‘hug a hoodie/husky/hutu’ photopportunities.
It was only in the spring of 2008 that the situation changed and an outright Conservative majority became possible. And what caused it wasn’t any breakthrough among the ‘urban trendy’ voters but Labour’s betrayal of the WWC. Budget 2008 with its increase in tax on the working poor was a key turning point.
114. but another party could attempt to move the writ, forcing Labour to amend the motion, thereby revealing the date of the dissolution, as occurred with Cardiff North West in 1983…
There will not be a by-election and it will not affect the date of the general election.
115.
Sorry to hear about the death of David Taylor. He seems to have been a decent and hard-working MP.
In the discussion about the possibility of a byelection, one complication has not yet been mentioned. From 1st January, there are new rules about expenditure. Assuming an election on 6th May, there is a limit of approximately 20,000 for the period January-March (the long campaign), and a limit of approx 12,000 for April and May (the short campaign).
Presumably these limits would also apply in North West Leicestershire.
I agree with the majority view that there will probably not be a byelection, so my question is probably theoretical. But if there were, what would the limits on expenditure be? The new ones? Or the 100,000 traditional byelection maximum? Does anybody ?
118 Can’t they just vote the motion down? As with Glasgow North East how does that force them to say anything.
I’d say no chance of by-election here and what a great pity for David Taylor that he didn’t get the chance to fulfil his plans outside of Westminster politics.
Thoughts are with his family, many friends and many more admirers.
Holy Crap
“A Briton facing execution in China does not yet know he is to be killed later this week and will only find out 24 hours in advance, it has emerged.”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/8431750.stm
122. Perhaps, but a point-blank refusal would make nasty headlines for Labour…
Arsenal 3. Aston Villa 0
125 Not as nasty as a By-Election thrashing. Just expect a lot of we’re so close now unnecessary expense at this point etc etc.
68 In 1997 the announcement of dissolution was on March 17th
The dissolution actually occurred on April 8th
Polling was May 1st
So, in that example, a by-election which polling day was already scheduled after April 8th would be countermandered or superseded, although if the polling date was between March 18th and April 7th it would not be so clear-cut, and could be open to legal challenge…
There is no “not so clear-cut” about it. If the date of the by-election were before the dissolution of parliament, the by-election would go ahead.
Fabregas was outstanding, on 4 a few mins and changed the game, best player in the epl.
Now Hull gonna turnover spluttering MU.
128. JL
Wouldn’t that be the same situation as 1979, when the Liverpool Edge Hill byelection took place after Labour had lost a vote of confidence?
127 Partisan views aside, Punter, does anybody really think a by-election so close to an election serves any useful purpose? I am sure the good citizens of Leicester can get by without an MP for five months or so.
Total Politics Awards out now
http://iaindale.blogspot.com/2009/12/political-media-awards.html
131. PtP
Where do you draw the line though?
6 months?
A year?
Anyway there wont be a byelection.
130. Yes - good example. The returning officer does not have any discretion to “cancel” a by-election just because the PM has already asked for a dissolution two or three weeks in the future. Otherwise they could avoid by-elections completely by announcing the date of a GE years in advance.
According to the HoC Library paper an election on 6th My would need dissolution and the issue of writs to be no later than 12th April.
It is the dissolution and the issuing of writs which ‘calls’ a general election. The last day for the publication of that writ is 15th April.
Politicians sometimes ‘call’ an election with an announcement but it is not real until that writ is issued on behalf of the Queen.
116
Your take on global warming was amusing.
My I suggest you read up about the last 1 million years of Ice Ages and then your “simples” explanation can be discarded for what it is: simplistic rubbish..
131: Frankly no, it doesn’t. But then equally the goverenment shouldn’t seek to avoid to deny people political representation for party purposes.
There really should be set rules and times and it shouldn’t be able to influenced by goverenment at all.
113 Mr Jones
From Bruce Anderson’s recent article, the phrase that sticks in my memory is: ” In Britain, the bourgeoisie never reshaped political institutions in its own image.”
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704304504574609941325925348.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
Which is presumably the long term solution.
On topic: It is always a particular shock to see someone who is relatively young die so suddenly. Nick P’s tribute at 91 captures it perfectly.
On the political implications, I concur with those above who have said that it won’t affect anything. Hanging on until the GE looks perfectly possible, and perfectly defensible given the very brief time that, in practice, the constituency would be without an MP.
On the other interesting point raised on this thread, I agree very much with YS at 93 and runnymede regarding the target voters to whom David Cameron’s approach will appeal. But there is an important extra dimension: the fact that almost all younger voters (under around 40) will take for granted many of the values which Cameron has incorporated into the value set of the Conservative party and brand (sometimes to the mild dismay of the more traditional and older Conservative activists and voters). ‘Vote Blue, Go Green’ should be seen in that light; it’s not an appeal to the über-environmentalists, but to the mainstream younger voter. It’s also not a cynical election ploy, but a simple expression of Cameron’s views, pragmatic and moderate, but genuinely concerned. The same point is true on many other issues where Cameron has moved the party’s position; it’s not just a move to the centre, it’s also a move towards the younger voter.
133 I guess you take each case on its merits, Richard.
In this case, I should say that with an election inevitable in less than six months and every indication that the seat will go to the Tories at that election, who is going to be pushing to fill the temporary vacancy urgently?
131 - ‘There really should be set rules and times and it shouldn’t be able to influenced by goverenment at all.’
agreed - it should be taken out of party political control along with the introduction of fixed terms for Parliament.
If a by-election were held in NW Leics would Nick Griffin stand as the BNP candidate? It wouldn’t do him or his party any harm and it would give Labour a nasty headache.
141 should read 137
139
Too true.
And the fact that some of the older generation like Heffalump don’t understand it just shows how out of touch some of the older right wing are.
130. Callaghan asked the Queen for a dissolution on the same day as the Edge Hill by-election, so it was a bit late then for the Returning Officer to countermand the poll…
Anthony Wells has a new “swingometer” which is worth a look.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/advanced-swingometer-map
138 I’ll give that a read.
142 I doubt it. They’ll surely be focused on Barking sadly. They simply can’t afford to risk their Dear Leader’s personal prestige so close to the election if they are going all out for Barking. They’ll run some else if there was a By-Election most likely.
139: I think the core of what Cameron had to do is to show that the tory party at least considers all members of society and appreciates that you do have to look at all areas.
You don’t have to be gay, or black to want people to be treated equally, you don’t have to be an enviro-facist to be concerned about global warming or the enivronment. These are things which we all should be concerned about, not just those it effects.
142. The BNP have selected Ian Meller as their PPC. Dunno if they will change.
93. Yellow Submarine December 27th, 2009 at 3:42 pm
“However I suspect Camerons real “genius” relatively speaking was seeing this. A small but definate group of voters lost to the party unnecceserily and for ever simply because of the branding.”
Just so. By 2005 the Tories were losing these voters to Labour (or DNV) through default. Labour had stopped making any active attempt to woo them, but the Tories were not doing so either, rather the reverse.
What Cameron did was effectively to make Labour fight for these votes if it wanted to keep them, and that would have required measures and rhetoric that Brown’s Labour either hasn’t wanted, or (perhaps more to the point) woudn’t have been able, to deliver.
131. Peter the Punter December 27th, 2009 at 4:22 pm
“I am sure the good citizens of Leicester can get by without an MP for five months or so.”
I agree, but I assume that anyone who believes that constituency case work is an important part of an MP’s role would have to disagree.
A bit of light relief for those who can type and recall the names of elements
http://www.sporcle.com/games/miyomiyo1/blitz_elements
How anyone can get over 50 in 60secs in a god in my book
Wow, slow night on PB. Eveyone still on holiday, presumably…
Iain Dale posts Cameron’s NY message
http://tinyurl.com/ycfsgcm
139. RN
I think you’ve made a good point on how Cameron appeals top young voters but the ‘vote blue go green’ and ‘hug a hoodie’ are meaningless slogans in the areas that the Conservatives have made the biggest gains in.
Now its possible that the Cameron Project was super sophisticated and by appealing to people who wouldn’t vote Conservative it would reassure swing voters who might. But I’m very sceptical.
The people who post here tend to be more educated, more middle class, more affluent, more southern than average. Rather a Cameron Conservative demographic and perhaps naturally sympathetic to him. I do suspect though that many of the lower middle class and WWC areas that have swung strongly to the Conservatives in the midlands, north and Wales are doing so in the belief that they will get ‘traditional’ Conservative policies on immigration, crime, taxation etc. Tebbit Conservativism rather than Cameron Conservatism. If so a Cameron government could be very disappointing to them.
152. Turnout was very low in the Glasgow North East by-election, which suggests many people weren’t particularly bothered by not having a MP for a considerable period.
155. Plato.
An interesting attempt at cutting down the possibility of Clegg opportunistically moving to an anti-Afghanistan war position in there.
All the talk of the Cameron detox, and yet some think William Hague would become leader if Cameron fell under a bus.
An immediate retoxification strategy and a reminder of the bad old days that a Hague leadership would mean makes it a very weird assumption.
158 And phoney dividing lines too
Loved the ‘clean fight’ bit too, nothing like killing one’s opponents tactics with good intentions!
Its too early to tell however my suspicion about Cameron is that he understands plurality and how its the long term trend in British politics and has though deeply - as a proper Tory should - about how he maintains the Conservative party as one of the bigger players in a fragmented world. I’m scrabbling around for a reason for him to have agreed to debates when he had no real reason to have done so.
What has happened to the plurality virus that Labour introduced to the body politic in 1997 in the form of proportional voting?
1. Its has spread. Scotland, Wales then Europe then London then the handful of directly elected mayoralities.
2. It has spread the species barrier. PR has begotten PR for Scottish local government.
3. It has become more virulent. List system PR begat STV in scotland
4. It has become endemic. No one is talking about any reversal of PR voting for areas that have it. Its a given that a second chamber would be elected by some form of proportionality, if they hadn’t been so unpopular then so would have regional assembies. PR for local government seems part of what is comming in Wales.
Of course a Conservative government may stop all of this in its tracks but PR isn’t the only form of plurality being injected into the system. The days when you can turn out 42% and run everything seem to be over. I’ve always seen camerons position as nothing more than recognising that the bigger brands are going to have to be wider and more open than before if they want to remain market leaders.
156 I wonder if it maybe as much a desire to punish as anything. Whether the Tories can hold this new support in the future is another thing. But the public mood at present seems to be I don’t care what the others are offering just purely anti Government. That would explain the Midlands and Wales where the best placed opponent regardless of party seem to be gathering steam everywhere against Labour really.
157. That’s a non-sequitur.
(Previous thread)
Peter2′ I see I have been “moderated” for suggesting that Labour made laws so 16-18 year olds could have gаy sex.
Thanks to Labour 16-18 year olds are mostly schoolchildren.
Anything I said factually untrue? Or just uncomfortable for the thought police?
16-18 year olds are school pupils, not schoolchildren.
Marquee Mark Peter2, knock it off. The age of consent was balanced up across differing sexualities. It has not proven to be any sort of issue - or we would have had the Daily Rant full of “Evil middle-aged poof made my 17 year old son gay” stories.
That reminds me - Christmas Day 2001 was when Prince Harry first became one of my statistics. He was 17 then. But I was only 33; does that count as “middle-aged”?
ken wasabi That aside, Labour lefties and middle aged homosexuals never tried to get the heterosexual A.o.C raised - they only wanted to lower the homosexual A.o.C.
Or to put it another way - Labour never tried to protect 16yr old girls form A.nl s.ks, they only facilitated A.nl s.ks on 16yr old boys.
I would be happy to have the age of consent as 18 for everybody. I think there were numerous MPs who wanted an equal age of consent of 18 rather than 16, and voted against 16 for that reason.
John Lilburne Actually hetero a.nl s.ks used to be illegal until relatively recently. I believe it was effectively legalised by making “consent” a defence - in one of the acts that lowered the age of homosexual consent to either 18 or 16.
It was in 1994 when the age of consent was reduced to 18. It was not by making consent a defence; it was by making the 1967 Act gender-neutral.
Martin Coxall What became of the Portugese police finding samples of Maddie’s hair and blood in Kate and Gerry’s hire car boot?
It wasn’t hair or blood - it was microscopic traces of DNA which could have come from cross-contamination, things being touched or brushed lightly. The sort of thing which would give a positive result if someone has ever touched anything which has ever touched anything.
159. No bets tim?
164: Prince Harry what?
166 Looks like Major Hewitt?
163. How so? If they were really, really desperate to have an MP they would have flocked to the polls when given the chance to elect one.
164 “But I was only 33; does that count as “middle-aged”?”
Not remotely! Sleep easy…
159. tim December 27th, 2009 at 5:30 pm
Isn’t the whole point of detox so you can go on a bender again?
Seriously, I think the idea of Hague as replacement is based on these assumptions:
* Hague will be perceived differently now.
* There’s no-one more suitable. (Right now - after a couple of years in government there might be.)
I think that makes him the front-runner. However, as the Tories never seem to choose the front-runner, I think it also means he wouldn’t be elected.
I wonder if he’d want it anyway. In his resignation speech on the night of the 2001 election he made some remark about “someone with a greater personal following in the country” (or words to that effect) trying his hand, which suggested that he understood very well that we just not liked by too many people and that he was a significant part of his party’s problem. If that self-awareness is still with him, would he seek to return to the leadership?
165 - I have emailed PtP with our earlier bet.
Unless its all a massive, historic mistake then surely Cameron’s debate decsion has to be seen through the plurality prism. The result of the last election was Lab 36% Con 33% Others 31%.
Unless the current polling changes signifigantly we might be heading for Con 42% Others 32% Lab 26%. While the long term trend for “others” to grow started in 1951 it will be a huge moment if it happened.
Many including me have potrayed the TV debates as a threat to the old duopoly. Todate the basic deep structure of british politics is based on two party’s. its what the commons chamber dictates, its what PMQ’s dictates, its what most media coverage loving a polarised debate dictates. Having a three podium debate in a format that will very quickly become part of the deep structure of politics is an extraordinary concession to plurality. So why did cameron do it?
of course I don’t know but could it actually be an astute defensive move rather than an own goal. If the Cameron project has been about moving outside of tribe then perhaps he saw more quickly than others the need to accomodate plurality in order to control and coopt it.
Perhaps he wants Nick Clegg on a podium next to him because its short range for the love bombs?
I don’t think there will be a by election, but not because of political calculations. There will be no election because Gordon Brown hates having any elections, ever. I think he will have to be dragged kicking and screaming to have a general election in 2010 at all. It wouldn;t surprise me if in the coming months it became slowly apparent to a stunned nation that Gordon wasn’t actually going to call an election at all because he couldn’t bring himself to do it, and some kind of legal action was required to shove him into doing it.
Rooney 3 - Rooney 1.
172 YS. How committed are the Lib Dems to individual seats now? I’m thinking of all the canvassing reports etc. At what point in terms of committing resources in people or money do they pass the point really of no return in terms of being able to respond to new events or opportunities.
No.
Final thought for now. I think we have to see Salmonds jumping up and down about debates in this context as well. he’s far too clever to think he’ll get in but if he can drag some sort of 4 way specifically scottish format out of the broadcasters via threats of legal action then its another crack in the dam. Scotland, with its plural assembly, is already past the tipping point and multi polar TV debates will keep it there. What will be interesting to see is how the three bigger smaller players ( Greens, UKIP and BNP ) respond to being left without a Lectern while Nick Clegg is given opertunity to hoover up “others”.
They need a good series of stunts. Lucas has the best chance because she looks different from the three male leaders have debates chaired by three male presenters.
In short labour is going after its core, the Lib Dems seem to have lost their USP and in the context of plurality - the need to reach out beyong a tribe all of a sudden all of camerons positioning may come in handy again above and beyong brand detox.
Off now to rejoin the Norwegians stopping the Nazi’s getting a Bomb.
175. In terms of moving stuff around within the list very flexible. In terms of adding new stuff to the list i’d be very, very surprised.
172. The debate was initially pushed by Sky. With Cameron and Clegg saying yes, Brown had no choice but to agree. If a Cameron v Brown only debate had been proposed, Brown would have been able to dismiss it as a ‘Tory media’ idea.
173. In that case, parliament would lapse/dissolve at the end of its five year term, and the Queen would (on her own initiative) issue a writ for a new parliament to be elected.
Talking of pluralism I see YS has pulled ahead in the POTY race with 25%.
Come on Nabavi, get posting.
I want a Paltrowesque meltdown acceptance speech whoever wins.
166. mistribution, but with different vowels
178 How long is the list? You spoke of urban seats acting out of character. Would they be on it.
84. Cretin, crawl back under your rock.
181
” want a Paltrowesque meltdown acceptance speech whoever wins.”
Where’s the ******* hemlock?
184 all about adding the value malcolmG!
You are still ahead in ‘tw*t poster of the year’ competition!
Hmm. So when is a personal insult not a personal insult
163. John, you must be pretty thick trying to compare Hampshire County Council to Scotland. I have seen some illiterate rubbish spouted on here regarding Scotland and the politics surrounding it but that takes the biscuit. Only conclusion I can take from it is that you are thick or under 10 years old. Get a grip.
by malcolmG December 27th, 2009 at 10:41 am
191. JOhn, usual Tory tactics, when shown to be wrong use personal insults, get a new dummy teat.
by malcolmG December 27th, 2009 at 11:01 am
84. Cretin, crawl back under your rock.
by malcolmG December 27th, 2009 at 6:10 pm
I see Sky’s weekend political reporter (the crazy old 1960s Dr Who one) is spinning like a top on how its only a “convention” to hold a by-election in three months, and expect this convention to be broken this time round
186, You would not know a good post if it hit you in the head, an absolute balloon. The day i see a decent post from you I will expect the moon to be blue, fact that I bother you shows I am doing something right, stick to trying to be funny for your teenage friends on here, some day you might get there.
189. His name’s Paulie Walnuts.
187, Cue another halfwit appearing on the scene oh diddums did I upset the nutty one, stick to being eccentric and spouting half baked theories about global warming being fake.
187 thanks for posting the highlights! Can you send a cat round to scratch him please?
189 yes we think we will gain Moon next year!
DAVID TAYLOR MP
This thred is itself a great tribute to Mr. Taylor. Not just the words by those who knew and respected and appreciated him personally, or even by reputation. What strikes me is the depth, breadth, width & heft of the comments in general.
Mike S, don’t think apologies are necessary, because with politicos, pundits & punters, the news “le roi c’est mort” is immediately followed by the thought, “vive le roi!” Just as natural as taking a breath. And zero disrepect intended or delivered to the family of the Fond Memory.
Of course we Irish are world famous in this department!
Speaking of contributions above, is it really fair to allow the POTY finalists to make such great contributions at this time? That is, using a wake to Make Friends and Influence People? Personally, I vote yes!
189. Have to say that in stark contrast to all the other SNP posters here, you never seem to say anything of substance. So much so that I suspect you may actually be one of said posters, having a laugh.
188 I don’t understand the point of your post , he was completely correct , there were 2 by elections not held in early 1997 in similar circumstances .
192. Don’t Ave it, sounds about right , you have to get a girl to fight your battles , what a woosie.
Especially for malcolmG!
Scotland’s sporting highlight 1990!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sRkJdwjngbc&feature=related
191 Buckies on special over Christmas?
191 malcolmG, are you attempting to make the SNP as unattractive as possible?
I’m quite happy for Scotland to have home rule - I’m a Geordie and would be relaxed if we declared independence from the rest of the UK too
The irony and rude nature of your posts is a constant stream of entertainment.
Michael, Boo Hoo, I have been savaged by a wet leak. Who are you and what have you ever posted on here of consequence. Another deluded Tory juvenile who does not have a clue but has to support the extremist clowns on here who dislike anyone who does not agree with their puerile opinions.
Here is my betting tip for 2010 - LINDSAY VONN
Over the last few days have been watching, out of corner of my eye, fair amount of TV coverage of winter sports, esp. bobsleds & similar NASCAR-on-ice, and ski racing & jumping.
Linday Vonn may or may not win a slew of gold medals. One way or another, she is going to be one of the great Olympians of 2010.
Bode Miller she ain’t!
198 tennents super on at £9.99/24 in the supermarket in paisley - malcolmG is making good progress through them in his one bedroom council flat…
V sad for the family, witnessing his demise, but trying to postpone the By-election on spurious grounds would show Brown at his lowest.
Just spent 4 hours trying to drive round the M25 from J28 to M4 junction. Not something i would want to repeat.
201 yes she is quite pleasant…
http://www.sportlive.it/gallery/foto/sport-invernali/foto-lindsay-vonn/lindsay_vonn5.jpeg
198, Cockroaches crawling out of the woodwork now. You would think you spotty teenagers would be better educated, obviously you have never been further north than the Watford Gap. A big jessie trying to join in with the other idiots, it does not make you smart or clever jsut proves you are an idiot.
184. malcolmG.
We waited over two and a half hours to discover you have no sense of humour, then.
199 does that mean you get to keep cheryl cole and joe mcelderry? I like it too!
malcolmG really has to be the worst poster of all time - and coming from me thats saying something!!!!!!
172 “Perhaps he wants Nick Clegg on a podium next to him because its short range for the love bombs?”
If i was him i’d be doing it to try and encourage the sort of wavering Labour voters who’d need 2 or 3 run-ups before they could ever vote Tory to vote for the LDs instead.
hahahahahahaha all about scots on meltdown!
malcolm g = sheena easton + that tw*t who sang japanese boy!
209 ‘malcolm g = sheena easton + that tw*t who sang japanese boy!’ ok its over the top i retract it!!!!!!!!
207, Ave it - I heartily endorse your last statement post hyphen!
199. Bully for you, if the halfwits on here want to insult people from Scotland as per post 84 , I am happy to post in the same fashion. Too many idiots on here think they can hurl personal insults and then cry like big babies when they get the same back. You have seen many of the usual culprits here and you seem to love to back them up. I dislike the way people on here insult Scots in general, happy to have banter and a joke but not the nasty stuff we get here. I am up to playing them at their own game.
Have a look to yourself.
201 SSI Re NJ. I suspect the reason Obama got involved was to avoid any of Corzine’s supporters or more likely the GOP shouting how of course Corzine would have won if only the big chicken had ridden to the rescue. He tried I guess with any eye to the mid terms so the grass roots felt well he at least gave it a really good shot. On that point how do the national Democrats sort out the state party in NJ. Can they do anything?
200. malcolmG December 27th, 2009 at 6:32 pm
Not attempting to savage you or anyone. Just noting the fact that the SNP posters on PB are on average very sharp and very informative. Yourself, not so much.
Regarding myself, I’m not a Tory and, sadly, no longer juvenile. As to my support for puerile opinions - I support Scottish independence, is that what you had in mind?
214. MichaelK: As to my support for puerile opinions - I support Scottish independence, is that what you had in mind?
PWNED!
I do hope that for the sake of keeping MalcolmG’s blood pressure low that he hasn’t read any comments about Scottish politicans on Guido.
202. Don’t Ave it, you show yourself up as the cretin you are and how little you know of Scotland and myself in particular. Stick to trying to be funny, I bet I pay more tax than you earn, if you actually have any employment.
212. malcolmG December 27th, 2009 at 6:41 pm
“I dislike the way people on here insult Scots in general”
I dislike it myself and don’t take seriously anyone who engages in it.
206. I am splitting my sides you lot are so funny.
malcolmG - its coming…
http://planettravel.files.wordpress.com/2008/10/grey_kitten1.jpg
Here in US we’ve had at least our share of great political wakes. The Irish contribution to the melting pot has seen to that, or at least ensured it’s firmly anchored in US political theory and practice.
Of course I type this as the election to replace the late US Senator EDWARD KENNEDY (D-Mass) or rather to replace his temporary replacement, is still on-going.
So MalcolmG now you have warmed up by insulting 6 different posters, what do you think about the sad demise of David Taylor MP and its possible electoral consequences ?
211. We have thick Irish Americans joining in now , read some of the drivel you post you idiot. Away and peel the tatties.
221 see 213.
223 - Malcom hun, it’s best not too post after a few too many drinks. Go sleep it off now.
217
That really is the funniest thing i have heard on here! (Really)
If I didnt pay any tax then Scotland would cease to exist!
MalcolmG has to be a parody. Nobody could be so stupid and lacking in self awareness and not be a troll.
222. Apoplexy, It is very sad for his family and could not have happened at a worse time. Politically I doubt it will have much impact, labour will try to avoid a by election, but they are done for in any case , at worst this will just give them some bad news before the election.
i’m off now - back on later - enough time for you to have another 6 cans malcolm!
226 How about Watford winning the European Cup?
225. Neil, Join the cretins, don’t judge people by your own habits. I have had nothing to drink today , though that has nothing to do wit hyou and you should keep your crappy opinions to yourself , unless you have something sensible to say.
217 IIRC Ave it has said on several occasions that he earns more than £150k pa and is a self-made man.
230
Just cos you won yesterday! (N1 by the way - you will be ok)
227, Don the stupid one, we nearly have a full house now, got anything sensible to say.
232 near £150k… (ish)
227 - We can only hope. And yet, it is more hope than anything.
234 certainly a full one bedroom paisley tenement!
229. Don’t Ave it, slink off with your tail between your legs, real debate too much for you.
231 tee hee, you just have to poke it with a stick.
Right, who can post something that provokes the response that gets it banned?
235 Well it’s more than the vast majority of the population
My best year was £139k - now thanks to Labour, eating cat food on toast
232. plato, In his dreams , he will be lucky if he can make his bed never mind £150K.
181 “I want a Paltrowesque meltdown acceptance speech whoever wins.”
Preferred the Kate Winslet version myself…
“Gather! Gather….”
241 And on what evidence do you assert that Mr mG?
Personal insults…
239 - I think we’ve already reached the point where moderating Malcolm would be helpful for the site. Any chance he can be given a yellow card to cool off and come back when he’s less moody? It works a treat with my nephew.
227, Don the stupid one, we nearly have a full house now, got anything sensible to say.
by malcolmG December 27th, 2009 at 6:58 pm
Apologies, I was wrong you are not a troll, just thick. Please forgive me for the troll comment, that would involve you having some intelligence and a sense of humour. Your subsequent posts have proved you have neither.
239, John , You sound like a real jessie boy, imagine you were bullied and think if you join in wit hthe clowns it makes you hard. Stick to pulling girls pigtails, sounds about your limit.
I’m genuinely surprised that an insults contest involving a man with a personalised number plate should get round to earnings.
240 - How did Labour make you eat cat food?
172. For Others to outpoll one of the two main parties would not be unprecedented - it just happened in 1983, although current polling would produce a gap well in excess of that of 27 years ago.
Westminster elections are still in both the media and public eye about winning seats and on a GB basis, that still restricts matters to the three main parties, and places regional parties with concentrated support like the SNP above national ones with wide but limited support, such as UKIP - even if UKIP outpolls them (which they probably will).
Unlike the European elections, the Greens are seen as alsorans and their relative success or failure will be determined by whether they take their target in Brighton, not how many hundred thousand votes they win. In the eye of many in the media, elected office is the only route to being taken seriously, not popular support.
You mean there are people on PB who earn less than £150k pa? Ritchie Rich will be disappointed.
241 can my tax assessment be based on that malcolm please?!!!
This is a variation from my last tax assessment (oddly enough coming from scotland) where I was over assessed by £30,000!!!
243 plato just for info its £150k on a good year including pension contributions which is why i dont like the labouir pensions restrictions 2011!!!
244 but malcolmG got…
http://poll.pollcode.com/QNT5_result?v
Oh no votes as he didn’t make the popular ballot…
Bless.
243. Plato , based on the tripe he posts here and the fact that he has to boast about it. Usually find empty vessels make the most noise and it is likely to be true in his case. His obsession with council flats is rather telling.
247 tim earns so much he doesnt lower himself to this sort of debate!
249
213, Punter - re: NJ, would defer of course (though not totally also of course) to Stars & Stripes though suspect is is either: a) new Gov. “Big Boy” Chris Cristie; or b) a senior member of his new administration.
Believe you are significantly but not completely correct with respect to Obama campaigning for Gov. “Lead Foot” Jon Corzine. But President was more positive than negative about JC, my guess is that at least until mid-October he & WH believed that he & they could help save the day.
But at least as you say, they cannot be accused of leaving him to his fate, as was the case in Virginia. However, doubt that too many in Dominion State are blaming Obama for that one.
BTW the notion of the Democrats or anyone else “sorting out” NJ Dems shows the kind of disconnect with sordid reality that speaks highly for your personal character! This from state that has graced the United States with Democrats as notable & varied as George B. McClellan, Woodrow Wilson, Frank Hague and Peter Rodino!!!
250 - “which is why i dont like the labouir pensions restrictions 2011!!!”
But at the same time showing what a necessary and useful measure they were
244. Neil, you upset that mummy had you in the naught corner today and now want to take it out on big boys.
If you think Malcolm’s a bit irritable now, wait until after the 2011 elections, when Labour wins back power at Holyrood.
251 ssssh plato i wasn’t there either but malcolm probably hasnt worked it out yet! (I think he was cleaning his council flat
)
The voting
Just eight votes between Richard Nabavi and Yellow Submarine. It’s become a “Two horse race” (I must use that in a leaflet)
If you have not voted in the Poster of the Year election yet please do so now - here
The ballot closes at 0900 tomorrow.
259. No it bloody isn’t.
255
257 hahahaha - this is why herdson is top 5!!!!
Anyway i am really off now before mike shows me a yellow card…
247. I must be getting somewhere when you start trying to be tough and attempt to insult someone. Stick to your sad fantasies saddo.
Where is Mr Thomas when you need him.
Malcolm, if we’re all so stupid, how about engaging in some political debate with us then?
How about responding to my point that if there is a Tory government next year it matters not a bean that there are few Tory MPs and an SNP government in Scotland, as that sort of thing happens all the time in federal states (and even in unitary ones, if I may repeat my comment about Hampshire).
A friendly tip for Malcolm, just take a time out and come back when you’ve calmed down!
250 Don’t Ave It, you are dreaming , you have never been to Scotland in your life and fantasies about being a real Tory and earning large sums of money are just wishful thinking on your part.
If Yellow Submarine wins I’m leaving the country.
262 - Cheers Malcolm, I’ve got a money saving idea for you.
“Saving money on personalised number plates is easy, just get “twat” tattooed on your forehead instead”
250, MS - speaking of Richie Rich, was fascinated by the British historical RRs whom I’d never heard of.
Note that to Americans of certain age, “Richie Rich” is the comicbook “Poor Little Rich Kid”.
“Usually find empty vessels make the most noise and it is likely to be true in his case…
by malcolmG December 27th, 2009 at 7:07 pm ”
Takes one to know one as they say.
Honestly, malcolmG what point are you trying to make?
I couldn’t give a toss about Scottish politics - I don’t live there and so long as their MPs have no impact on my life, who cares?
The WLQ is a running sore that needs to be fixed and it’s Labour that both created and sustained it for no logical reason whatsoever.
251. Plato, you are really showing yourself up now, stooping below th elevel you are always complaining about. Why don’t you and Don’t Ave It get together and make £300K a year.
257. david, first funny joke I have seen on the thread, at least you have a sense of humour , pity lots of other Tories on here are sadly lacking in that department.
Is “been to Scotland” the British equivilant of “hiking the Appalachian Trail’?
266, tim - talk about bribing the electorate!
269 And what level is that malcolmG? And what am I *always complaining* about?
Do enlighten me - perhaps there’s an alternative universe where this all happens and David Icke has saved us from Prince ‘Giant Lizard’ Phillips
271 I read Bill Bryson’s tale and therefore am an honorary hiker
263, John, If you were paying attention you would have seen my reply to your comment earlier. How anyone can compare Hampshire to Scotland in the political sense is unbelievable and absurd. In a federal sense , there is a possibility that we could go there, but as the unionists are too scared to ever have a vote they will leave it too late and independance will be the only game in town. Going by the ignorance shown on here , in relation to Scotland , by a vocal minority then it cannot come soon enough.
266. Tim, ooh you are an expert at the insults, I am breaking my heart. What a big girls blouse, stick to kidding on you are a farmer rather than posting as a Turnip.
Dearie me the thread has gone downhill since I last looked in - Malcolm and others - can we stop the personal abuse please. We may have different political opinions but it does not mean we have to be abusive to each other. We can be friends.
MalcolmG, would you be as happy as I would be if England were given a toss the jocks out referendum?
I am extremely confident that we would both get our wish of Scotland’s independence.
The nats all seem to labour under the same misapprehension that the English want to keep them as part of the union. We don’t.
260 David H - Quite right. Still time for a late Herdson GOTV operation.
181 tim - Alas, the Nabavi GOTV operation is being hampered by threats of domestic violence if I don’t help prepare dinner.
156 another richard - I think you’ve misunderstood what Cameron has been trying to do. A large part of it is correcting negative perceptions associated (in some cases unfairly, in some cases less so) with the ‘brand’. So in many cases he is removing negatives, not trying to appeal directly to specific sections of the voting public, many of whom already support Conservative policies.
254 I’m not sure what you mean on that list. I thought Woodrow Wilson had a reasonable reputation in the US? But on point can’t the national party apply any lobbying or pressure to promote more reform minded candaidates as in other countries.
Re NJ Well a bit of a difference between the two states. Corzine only finished three points adrift. If he had had no chance in NJ at that point in that sort of state then the earth would have stopped spinning on its axis.
268. Plato, nobody wants you to care about Scotland, just stop poking your nose in unless you have read all the comments and are posting something sensible rather than taking one side. You are very good at posting comments about people but not so good when you get some of it back. If you cannot take it then do not give it out , stick to commenting on your cats.
Scotland is a small region in the north of Great Britain.
[Runs]
253 John Lilburne
The reason it matters is that the UK isn’t a Federal state. While I note that Brown’s “Britishness” campaign was a disastrous flop in England, the Unionist parties try to down play the Englishness of Westminster and emphasise its Britishness when they campaign here.
Consequently, their over-stressing the relevance of Westminster backfires if the governing UK party has almost no representation in Scotland.
The polls suggest that support for independence will rise if the Tories win - because many (maybe most) Scots see the UK differently from the residents of Hampshire.
Your proposition would only make sense if the UK constitution had been logically constructed. I’m sure that you’re not claiming that!
271. You are the hillbilly you would know, please enlighten us.
279 - Thats better, the victim of domestic violence, now talk about your “journey” and find an ailing relative.
277. marcia, Unfortunately their are no political opinions being posted, just insults re Scotland and myself for daring to point to one of them. Afraid it is hard to act sensibly with some of the people on here, a small minority but nasty with it.
271 & 274
I am ready and waiting, to seranade you on the banjo…
Since we seem to have a few Nats around and in the mood to post, perhaps one of them could enlighted me as to what lawful mechanism permits Scotland to unilaterally withdraw from the union, without a vote of the whole British people, and why this is different to for example if the population of the Isle of Wight felt the same, or the people of Cornwall for that matters. I asked this is genuine question, I dont know or understand the reason.
282. david, just a small error ( even if deliberate ), but a valiant try at humour.
malcolmG
another richard was describing easterross and ChristinaD as “benefit junkies, the mentally disadvantaged, tribal voters.”
Quite why he wants to do that is beyond all of us. However, better to ignore such tripe, than to dignify it as being worthy of response.
289
Have a word with yourself, chap, really.
- “Does this sad news make an early election more likely?”
Categorically: NO.
This sad death will not make one iota of difference.
Please note that the Labour Party were perfectly happy to leave the residents of Glasgow NE without an MP for 4 months and 21 days (22 June to 12 November) earlier this year. They would string it out even longer than that without batting an eyelid.
259. The Laakso-Taagepera Index says it’s a 4.83 horse race
292. Clarification: This sad death will not make one iota of difference to the date of the next UK GE.
288. Apoplexy, I do not believe that Scotland can unilaterally withdraw, the proposed referendum is to ask whether the Scottish Government should negotiate with the UK Government re independence, hence the wording chosen by the SNP as they do not have the powers. However if a majority of Scots want independence it would be very difficult for Westminster to block it, hence the reason the unionists are scared to allow a referendum.
281 Oooh - and what “side” am I taking then, malcolmG?
“Poking my nose in” - erm, like where?
Others have suggested that you have a lie down…
*gets more popcorn*
As long as Cameron raises a few hundred billion by securitising future oil revenues then Scotland can do what it wants!
290. Oldnat, I know I should not rise to the bait at times, but some of the people who post on here really get my goat and they do not like getting back what they dish out. It is the usual suspects so I should know better.
288. Apoplexy December 27th, 2009 at 7:31 pm
I don’t think anyone claims there is such a mechanism. More that it wouldn’t be politically practicable or morally defensible to try to hold the UK together by force if the Scots emphatically expressed the wish to leave.
Of course the splitting of nation states can become incredibly ugly, but there seems no reason why it should in this case
282
Scotland is a small region in the north of Great Britain.
You did not add (in self defense?)
“where a majority of the inhabitants act as if the world owes them respect and a living”
Night..night.
280, P - re; the NJ Dems list, two are of good repute if not unsullied reputation: WW and Rodino, who was chair of US House Judiciary Committee that investigated and recommended impeachment of Richard Nixon.
Mayor Frank of Jersey City “I Am The Law” Hague was a Class A Ratfink who controlled and poluted NJ Democratic politics for a generation.
Gen. McClellan was a mixed bag; a wizkid railroad builder; fantastic as organizer and first motivator of the Army of the Potomoc; a rotten general in the field AND in the political battlefield of wartime Washington, a clueless, hapless and deeply racist (but loyal in his way) presidential candidate; a so-so post-bellum northern Bourbon (or rather Rye) Gov of NJ.
In NJ think the final, fatal mistake Corzine made was using the Weight Watchers attack against his super-sized opponent. Now excess avoirdupois is not exactly a vote winner. But nor is it a bar sinister. After all, as we see worldwide around this festive time of year, there’s a great resovoir of goodwill, respect and dare I say confidence for reasonably jolly fat baaastaaards.
288 Apoplexy
It’s quite simple. It’s enshrined in the INTERNATIONAL COVENANT ON
CIVIL AND POLITICAL RIGHTS Article 1 - “All peoples have the right of self-determination. By virtue of that right they freely determine their political status and freely pursue their economic, social and cultural development.”
To suggest that other peoples in the UK should have a veto over that is equivalent to saying that all voters in Indonesia should have had a vote to allow East Timor to have independence.
For Scotland, it’s even easier since we joined with England by Treaty, and the territory within which Scots law has operated hasn’t varied since 1707 (with the exception of the addition of Rockall).
In Scots constitutional law, sovereignty lies with the people of Scotland, and not Parliament.
275/283 Surely the UK is now a federal state, sort of. There are two “states”, Scotland and Wales, with a large amount of autonomy to run their own affairs, less for the Welsh than the Scots. Plus Northern Ireland which is allowed to run its own affairs when we let them.
Plus the bulk of the UK which we call England for convenience but has no unifying political direction or control - it is effectively a territory ruled by the national government.
The problem with the England problem is that the country is too big, devolving government to England would just mean another big government that is no closer to the people it is supposed to represent. Prescott’s solution, splitting England up into meaningless petty kingdoms based on EU regions rather than anything people identify with, would just have had ended up emasculating and cantonising England. It would be like saying, Scotland can’t have devolution, but we’ll happily devolve power to Fife and Strathclyde and Lothian…
Yes it is a bit of a mess, isn’t it. But I still think the argument that the Scots somehow suffer uniquely when there is a government they don’t happen to support, at least you get to run your own affairs, we have had to put up with a socialist government for the last 12 years we don’t want, and don’t have the ability to run our local health, education or transport like you do.
I suppose the other reason why I doubt a proper constitutional settlement will ever be found for England is that it would leave the UK government with relatively little to do… and they’re not going to allow that, are they?
300. We have the pretendy “Ex Scot” on now, only a few of the funny gang to come , when will the dancer appear.
301 What’s your assessment of Obama’s popularity in the US?
The polls I’ve read have been pretty damning, yet many others outside the US still think he walks on water.
I find this disconnect quite bizarre.
Personally, I find him to be a ditherer, who is crap at detail and prefers soaring rhetoric to action. I thought he’d be a good operator…
284, mg - you’re 100% on that one, indeed the Mountain State is THE Appalachian State. Which is why I’ve always been puzzled as to why there is much more of the Applachian Trail in NJ than in WV.
Actually one of my dreams is to make love to a beautiful woman while camped along the AT . . . just like Judy O’Grady and the Colonel’s Lady, myself and the LovGov of South Carolina are siblings under the skin. And duly censured.
New Labour (are they still called that?) could always use the excuse that they are saving taxpayers money by leaving the seat vacant for a few months. As well as the cost of a by-election, we’ll also save a bit on the new MPs salary and expenses.
My guess is that GB will opt for a long campaign, he’ll call the election around the 19th of March, there will then be around 2 weeks to push through any outstanding legislation, then it’s Easter, then the formal campaign can begin, 30 days of it.
“The reason it matters is that the UK isn’t a Federal state.”
Indeed. And the pro-Union argument* seems increasingly to be expressed in terms of a federal UK with devolved English regions.
As I can’t see the English voting for that, I think the only workable solution will be a separate England and Scotland as independent, monolithic nation states.
Of course, we could always muddle on for a century or two with an unworkable solution
* I say this, but it’s very rare to hear an argument for the preservation of the Union that goes beyond a soundbite (”stronger together than apart” kind of thing). Maybe it’s different in Scotland?
305 I don’t know if you watched Dr Who, but [no spoilers for anyone who hasn't watched it] I thought the whole conceit that the world would be on the edge of its seat watching a televised announcement by Obama was laughable. But from what I’ve heard I think Russell T Davies is your stereotypical left-leaning media luvvy.
303. John, the issue for Scotland is that it has no real powers until it gets fiscal power, currently we get pocket money and just have to make it fit.This cannot go on for long and the current problems will really show up the cracks when London slash Scotland’s budget and the Scottish Governments only option is what services will they cut. If you add to this the fact that their will be only 1 or 2 Tories in parliament and you have the perfect conditions.
295 I always wondered what would happen if we just repeal the Act of Union.
305 - Obama won the presidency on 4 words (change, yes, we, can), no policies, and on not being a Republican.
No surprise the Yanks are losing patience with him
Manouvres are taking place!!
308 was a reply to oldnat at 283 btw.
303 John Lilburne
“I suppose the other reason why I doubt a proper constitutional settlement will ever be found for England is that it would leave the UK government with relatively little to do… and they’re not going to allow that, are they?”
Exactly right - hence even with devolution, Westminster retained the right to override any decisions of the Parliament/Assemblies outwith England. That’s why it can’t be compared to a Federal system.
“the argument that the Scots somehow suffer uniquely when there is a government they don’t happen to support”.
I’ve never argued that line. I think that the North of England is the part of the UK that has suffered most from that. That’s largely because they have no real political clout. The parties that they vote for are all dominated by the political class - largely the same kind of people, and dominantly from the south of England.
Scotland’s political strength has always been that the people can actually force Scots politicians to protect Scottish institutions. Although part of the UK state, Scotland has never ceased to be a political entity in its own right.
310 I thought the Scottish Govt had tax-raising powers. If so, we cut your budget, raise taxes if you think you need the money.
305, plato - Actually think polls for Obama are mixed, though of course down from first half of 2009.
Personally think that right now the President is a bit like Greenland under the ice cape; isolated, chilled, weighed down by the burden above. Yet with potential to spring back and rise up if the ice really starts to melt.
The Battle for Health Care is not yet over, but the end is in sight. The Battle for Afghanistan (really Pakistan) continues but public is NOT as fired up one way or another as with Iraq, though of course it will lose Dems some congressional seats in 2010 by discouraging, not so much the base, as the young Obamamas. The Battle for Jobs is and will remain tough but fact that lots indeed most fed stimulus spending is still in the pipeline may be helpful to the Big O.
306. Sea Shanty, I lived in North Carolina for 3 years and travelled around, beautiful part of the country. I miss it a lot but returned to Scotland as my daughter was here.
309 I got the feeling that RTD was slightly taking the p*ss with the Obama stuff.
Obama’s used up a lot of his political capital on things like healthcare. Once you have to do things, you tend to lose popularity.
308 MichaelK
“Maybe it’s different in Scotland?” Nope! On the blogs here, there are regular challenges to Unionists to give positive reasons for Scotland to remain in the Union. They always remain unanswered.
308.Michael, Yet to see any unionist come up with a good reason to keep the union. They can talk plenty about supposedly subsidising Scotland and how we could not go it alone etc , but never a good reason for the union and any benefit that Scotland gains from it.
136.
Yes.But is it getting wetter/snowier?
Would I sell my sand & grit shares for sheep farming?
316. They have no powers to speak off and any savings or policies they try to introduce results in a cut to their pocket money from westminster so no way for them to really improve things.
Apparently another Nigerian has been arrested on the same plane to Detroit.
Anyway, time for dinner , good night to everyone.
re: Obama, keep in mind that while we enjoy/endure 24/7 news cycle, still have a 4-year presidential election cycle.
Note that we are doing our 21st centuray Great Depression modern dress reinactment, we’ve NOT given the new President an overwhelming majority in Congress. If you take a trip in the Way Back Machine OR the Tardus, you’d note that aside from the US Supreme Court, effective opposition to FDR wasn’t what you’d call even half-way half-assssed until 1935.
326. Sorry, but as a Dr Who pedant, Tardis, please
286. malcolmG.
Not an insult, but a joke designed to draw out those Nats who take themselves too seriously.
And you fell for it: hook, line, sinker, rod and copy of Angling Times.
277 & 286 marcia & malcolm
In all fairness marcia, malcolm has been the subject of some quite preposterous baiting today.
Malcolm, please just try to ignore the idiots. Objective observers know who the baddies are. And you are one of the goodies Sir!
311 John Lilburne
When Winnie Ewing chaired the opening of the first meeting of the Scottish Parliament, she said “The Scottish parliament, adjourned on 25th March 1707, is hereby reconvened”. That wasn’t a chance choice of words. The 1707 Parliament was never formally prorogued, and it provided a direct link between the old and new Parliaments in Scots Law.
The English Parliament simply continued after 1707 with the addition of some Scots, then Irish members.
If either Parliament repeals its Act of Union (there were two - one in each Parliament), then the Union ends.
327,Mk - most abject apology!
329, SD - sir, YOU baited ME by casting aspersions upon the memory of James Maxton. Whom none other than Winston Churchill called “the greatest gentleman in the House of Commons”. Fact your canards were bolstered by factoids does NOT mitigate the offense!
Have you no shame, Senator?
329. Oh give this tiresome victimology a rest will you? It’s so pathetic.
156 et al.
Interesting discussion. I think that initially the Cameron project was aimed at disarming people who were well to the Left of the centre ground. I think it had less to do with winning them over (clearly it hasn’t) so much as reducing their hostility. In turn, this was intended to ensure that anti-Conservative feeling among Leftish opinion formers diminished, along with anti-Conservative tactical voting.
I think that a somewhat harder edge developed in the Autumn of 2007, partly in response to Gordon Brown’s honeymoon, partly (if later) in response to deepening economic problems.
330,oldnat - Failure to clean up messy loose ends is one of the major mitigations of the British Constitution.
Another example is in British Columbia. Where white settlers in particular budding land barons were so eager that they completely neglected tiresome formality of actually signing rip-off treaties with the Natives before stealing their land and otherwise ripping them off.
Well, that’s a nice conceit. I realise Wikipedia isn’t always right but at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Acts_of_Union_1707 it suggests the two parliaments were actually merged, so the current Imperial Parliament at Westminster is actually a merger of the former Scots, English and Irish parliaments. I’d guess it was an arguable point.
Whether the current Scottish Parliament has the authority to repeal an Act of its predecessor might be moot.
But I do wonder what would happen to Northern Ireland if either party repealed the 1707 Act of Union, as in 1801 they joined a country that would have then ceased to exist.
Only six votes separate Yellow Submarine and Richard Nabavi
Voting for the POTY closes at 9am.
To vote click here -
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2009/12/26/the-2009-pb-poster-of-the-year-the-final-round/
I have told you on here before that the Plan is rapidly coming to fruition. We sent the biggest eejits Scotland ever produced, “Smiler Broon” (aka nosepicker extraordinaire) and “nobody’s Darling” to England to wreck the English economy and English society. They have succeeded beyond our wildest dreams.
When the word is given, the giant zip fastener we secretly installed along the Border will be unzipped, and French tugs (you know how the French adore the English, and have used their massive influence in the EU to further English interests at every opportunity) will tow England into the South Atlantic, where waiting German submarines (you know how the Germans love you, and really appreciate the spoke you put in their two previous attempts at European domination) will fire torpedos into carefully-selected targets in the English coast. As England sinks gracefully below the waves it used to rule (when the Royal Navy had more than the two rowing boats it has now), the rest of the world will burst into laughter and howls of glee.
By the way, we don’t want any Scottish Labour MPs back, you can take them with you, and do what you like with them. They love England and the Union, and will be only too happy to accompany you to your watery grave, while Vidkun MacQuisling (aka Jim Murphy SoS and standard bearer for the sad remnants of English rule in Scotland) will be only too pleased to lead you in singing “Land of Hopeless Tory”.
The Welsh have made their own arrangements to wave you goodbye - in the interests of Celtic solidarity I will leave it to them to tell you the good news…
331. Sea Shanty Irish December 27th, 2009 at 8:14 pm
Apology accepted
Interesting that there was effectively no Congressional opposition to FDR until 1935, and barely then. Is the point that the GOP was far more completely discredited then than now, Hoover having been in office for three-and-a-bit years after the initial crash, presiding over brief, apparent recovery and then further collapse? There was therefore no question but that the Republicans had had their chance to deal with the problem and no opening for them to criticize the Democrats’ attempt.
Different, this time around.
Fwiw, it’s with that in mind that I said the other day to Richie Rich that I didn’t think postponing the UK election until 2011 would be in Labour’s interest.
malcolmG, have you ever heard of an infamous internet troll called Dirty European Socialist?
You two have a lot in common.
Sorry, Mike - you appear to wonder whether the vacancy for this seat could be left open? Unless it has been forgotten Glasgow North East was left vacant for 6 months leaving the people there without effective representation. It went pretty much without comment.
334. Sean - I think the point is that Cameron & Co. recognised the influence left-wing opinion formers have well beyond their own part of the political spectrum. Reducing their hostility was important in reducing the anti-Conservative mood music filtering through to swing voters.
336. Free-born John - yes this is indeed a ‘conceit’ as you call it, but a common one in Nat circles.
330. The problem for the SNP is that currently more people in England are in favour of ending the Union than in Scotland.
I do sometimes wonder what my politics would be if I was a Septic. I am generally of the Right, but a libertarian and economic liberal, and find the neo-con and Christian right quite unpleasant. I’m not sure if there would be a home for me as a Republican or if I would be a Blue Dog Democrat (if I have got my terminology right). In the last election I would probably have voted for Obama although I find him too liberal (in the American sense) and to have risen from nowhere and therefore not have enough experience for the job. However I doubt I could bring myself to vote for any ticket with Palin on it, and some of what the Bush administration has done in Iraq and Afghanistan is quite simply beyond the pale.
338 FergusMac
You weren’t supposed to tell them that yet!
320/1. “there are regular challenges to Unionists to give positive reasons for Scotland to remain in the Union. They always remain unanswered”
Does anyone feel inspired to put the case - on PB2 perhaps? Would be particularly interesting to hear English and Scottish (and indeed Welsh and Irish) Unionist arguments, and to see how they might differ.
Is there any provision in the various EU treaties for a region that declares independence from a member state to assume EU membership automatically? Or would an independent Scotland (for example) have to join the queue behind Serbia, Turkey and Catalonia? If the Tories are still in power, any resultant Accession Treaty would be put to a referendum of English, Welsh and Northern Irish voters - in which case the rest of the UK would, indeed, have the last word on the fate of Bonnie Scotland.
343 NoOffenceAlan
I don’t disagree. However, for those of us who want to renegotiate (at the very least) the Treaty of Union, and remember the times when the idea of Independence was not seriously considered, we have come a long way already.
If England were to declare their own independence, I wouldn’t complain.
Following this thread, why do some Scottish Nationalists assume that they, and they alone, speak for Scots? After all, they’re only a minority among the Scottish population, albeit, a fair-sized one.
348 But if that happened, you’d be lumbered with Northern Ireland. But I don’t think the UK would last very long if England left.
338. FergusMac - “… aka nosepicker extraordinaire…”
Enjoy:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kwgTvM1DtQo
Re: 1934 versus 2010, this time around it’s not that GOP is any less implicated in economic debacle, but that Dems are more complicit this go-around. In part because during New Deal self-perceived economic interests of Southern Democratic conservatives were generally very divergent from those of Northern Republican conservatives. In that ear the disconnect between Wall Street and Midwestern Main Street was even exceeded by divergence of both from the Dixie Dirt Road.
In the last two generations the economic transformation of the South has killed the Solid South, ended Jim Crow, paved over the mud, turned on the air conditioning, multiplied the property values and powered an amazing political re-alignment and new empowerment.
All parties have tendancy to conceit that the speak for all decent folk. But nationalist have it in spades.
As part of my continuing effort to draw (or at least draw out) parallels between Scotland and Quebec, note that one major strategy/PR problem for PQ has been tendancy of many stalwarts up to & including some party leaders, to presume that only the Old Breed or those closely assimilated with it have right to consider themselves true members of the Nation.
352 SSI. Where’s your money for the 2012 GOP nominee now? Mine is on a former Arkansas Governor.
335 - Can’t you claim land ‘by right of conquest’?
353 A mirror image in Wales wrt language division.
346 Scottish Unionists put their case at every round of Scottish elections, and about 70% of Scots voters back them (of course, some people who vote for Unionist parties, do want independence, but then some people who vote SNP wish to remain within the Union).
352 I think it was hugely fortunate for the South that their economy boomed in the period 1950-80. It meant that gains for the Blacks didn’t translate into losses for the Whites.
Speaking of untimely passings followed by passings of torches AND places, have Brits cottoned on to the fact that the strong favorite to succeed the late Sen. Edward Kennedy (or rather Teddy’s former protege and current seatwarmer Sen. Paul Kirk) namely Massachusetts Attorney General Martha Coakly was in her former life the District Attorney (of Middlesex County no less) who prosecutted British au paur Louise Woodward?
Special Election Day in Mass = Jan 19, 2010
Don’t call him a Tory wet! David Cameron gets muddy as he burns off the Christmas turkey with a stream run for charity
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-1238733/David-Cameron-gets-muddy-burns-Christmas-turkey-mile-long-run-charity.html
354, p - re: Huckabee, am already strongly on record as believing he is toast due to fact that murder of four WA State police officers by Arkansas felon he repreived from 95-year sentance.
Though so far must admit it ain’t slowed him up any. But still early days.
My own personal ouija board (stolen from a blind bard in an abandoned graveyard at a minute before midnight on Haloween) currently indicates most propitious contenders for 2012 Republican presidential nomination = Mitt Romney or Charlie Crist.
As for recently-Gov Palin, think she might just keep enought wingnut votes locked up to give a more credible if less charismatic candidate a fighting chance for the nomination.
One of the nice things about discussing Scottish Independence on a (primarily) English blog, is that you keep coming up with points that we’ve been discussing for at least 40 years!
347 History Boy.
The answer is that there is no clear answer one way or another. Various opinions have been expressed, but nothing definitive. At the end of the day, it would be a political decision by the members of the EU (as would be whether they wished rump UK to continue as a member automatically).
349 Sean Fear
I try not to post as if all Scots agreed with me. I wish the more fundamentalist Tories here did the same.
353 Sea Shanty Irish
it would be useful if you looked at contrasts with Quebec, as well as looking for parallels. You will find a few Scot Nats who expound an exclusive view of who the Scots are, but very few of them are in the SNP. That’s why many Asians vote SNP (and many of English/Welsh origin)
359, speaking of fortysomething men who are incredibly popular, anyone else watch the Top Gear special?
Very good indeed.
“I do sometimes wonder what my politics would be if I was a Septic.”
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2009/12/27/does-this-sad-news-make-an-early-election-more-likely/#comment-1360992
357 Sean Fear
“Scottish Unionists put their case at every round of Scottish elections”. They put A case, but not the case for continuing in the Union. Have a look at their manifestos and PPBs. You’ll see scaremongering about ending the Union, but no positive arguments for it.
OT Can I ask for a group hug?
I’d bought myself a couple of red canaries for my Christmas present [to replace ones I've had for yrs that recently fell off their perch] and the dealer has gone really shifty, so have just had to call off a 450 mile round trip to collect them
The heater in my car has failed and he refused to tell me if they were outdoor or indoor kept. Canaries are very prone to dying from chills, so didn’t want to expose them to 3C if they’re used to 20C indoors.
Am really glum, but glad I asked the question.
365, *hugs Plato*
357, Sean Fear - Actually the boom in South (at least relative to rest of US) continued into 1990s and 2000s. You are right that rising tide helped lift the pall of post-bellum Dixie and limited White backlash. Though as I remember it, the mood from early 1970s forward was that vast majority of people, including many who were culturally/personally racist, had zero desire to return to the past, though they did strive to retain what they (and others) regarded as it’s best traditions.
Proof in this particular pudding: the reverse immigration since 1980s of many African Americans from the Northeast and Midwest to the South. In addition to many retirees looking for both old roots and cheaper living costs, also many Buppies (let pbers figure that one out!) heading to urban/suburban Atlanta, Charlotte, Houston, etc.
352.
Not at all, and a total misinterpretation of the modern politics of the US South. The Solid South is still there and as strong as it ever was (indeed, it has become stronger of late). There are two differences: (1) It votes for Republicans rather than Democrats and (2) People who could not vote during the Solid South (blacks, and, to a lesser extent, women) now can. But the white male vote–the only people who were voting during the Solid South period until 1920–is over 80% Republican in every single Deep South state, and even the white vote generally is over 75% Republican in every Deep South state.
Political fragmentation was a temporary state of Southern white politics from 1950-2000, as during those fifty years the Solid South flipped, one demographic after another, from Democratic to Republican. Some flipped early–wealthy suburbanites being the first–while others flipped very late–the highly impoverished people of the Lower Appalachians. (Generally speaking, the late flippers were the ones to whom race mattered the least because their areas were/are relatively racially homogenous, although this was more about context than anything else.) “Naturally”, the white South votes as a bloc because it has an incredibly strong regional and racial identity that overcomes any and all class divisions. Its political divergence from the rest of the country–and, indeed, it is radically different from the rest of the country politically, even other strongly Republican states and demographics–must be a natural outgrowth of that identity.
(The additional drivel about blacks gaining while whites did not lose is also obscene–rural blacks in the South have gained nothing economically since the Civil War except when they moved out of the South or into black-heavy Southern cities. Travel to a Black Belt county to see the abject poverty yourself.)
As we don’t watch generally TV Christmas & Boxing Day I didn’t see Dr Who till today. It was presumably filmed back in the Spring so was illustrative of how much the perception of President Obama has changed; from the great hope, at the time script was written, to just another US President today.
Its probably better for him to no longer have the burden of great expectations, just hope that he now begins to govern, he’s had a year to learn.
369, it wasn’t too bad (given it was an RTD finale), but the Obama stuff was pointless. Methinks RTD has a crush.
357. Sean Fear December 27th, 2009 at 8:57 pm
“Scottish Unionists put their case at every round of Scottish elections”
They put the case for voting for their parties, which might or might not have anything to do with the continuance of the Union. For example, the Scottish Conservatives website has a list of policies that don’t mention the subject:
http://www.scottishconservatives.com/news_press/policy.aspx
The reason I raised the question is that the reasoned case for preserving the Union - how will it benefit us all, now - not in the 1700s - is really not put.
Fwiw, here’s my own best attempt (which I think is not very good):
1) Great Britain has only ever been at peace when the whole island has been incorporated in one polity.
2) We have no significant cultural differences.
3) Almost all of us share English as a first language.
4) We have fought innumerable wars side-by-side and it would be a shame to split up now.
5) It’s a waste of money/time, especially during a recession.
My own reply to that would be:
1) True in the past but not relevant for the future.
2) Not true.
3) So what?
4) Our soldiers will remain buried in the same cemeteries, and we can honour their memory as two separate nations.
5) Maybe, but the recession won’t last forever.
361, old nat - actually also some similarities between what you note of SNP support from Asian Scots (or Scottish Asians if you and they prefer) and ethnic minorities in Quebec. If I remember rightly there is at least one PQ/BQ Haitian Quebecker MNA/MP.
Do think that Seperatist leaders (if not necessarily followers) have been somewhat more apt to play the exclusionary card. In part this may be because the medium of 95% of PQ/BQ communication is in French. Wheres as in case of SNP they use English. My point is that major politicos in particular are more likely to “mispeak” in a language they regard as “theirs” as opposed to in a tounge they share with the Sasenachs.
369. And that is a good reason for (qualified) tory rejoicing when these 17 point leads evaporate, because it saves a whole year and a lot of disappointment if Cameron is not elected as The One Who Can and given a honeymoon period. It is all about expectation management.
366 Thanxxx Mr Dancer - here’s what a red canary looks like…
http://pics.hoobly.com/full/SVRB1LQOJ3QITIQVX4.jpg
You can alter their feather colour by changing their diet - just like flamingos do by eating shellfish.
Sean Fear / runnymede / Richard Nabavi
While I would agree that the Cameron Project was aimed at reducing hostility from leftist opinion formers, and in the case of OGH has succeeded extremely well, getting 35+% in the polls and 300 MPs which this policy might have achieved would not have given a Conservative majority.
Overall majorities are not won by getting swing voters alone but through also getting the votes who do not regard themselves as your natural supporters. The working class voters of 1979-92, the suburbanites of 97-05.
For there to be an overall Conservative majority the Conservatives will need the votes not just of natural Conservatives and swing voters but people who have never voted Conservative before.
What I doubt about the Cameron Project is that it was ever aimed at winning an overall majority (which would have seemed extremely unlikely in 2005) or if it was it was with the intention of gaining ‘urban trendy’ leftists and young voters.
What has occurred though is that the swing to the Conservatives has occurred among the voters least likely to be impressed by the changes to the Conservatives. Leicestershire NW is a good example, has it swung to the Conservatives because of the change in the Conservatives image or because of the policies of the Labour government? I strongly suspect that the big swing to the Conservatives had little to do with ‘hug a hoodie’ and ‘vote blue go green’. I expect ‘hit a hoodie’ and stopping immigration would be more attractive there.
What we will get if the Conservatives win the election is a split in expectations. The leftist opinion formers who are impressed by Cameron will be expecting an unthreatening progressive government, the voters upon whom the Conservative majority actually depends will be expecting something rather more red blooded.
At least one lot, perhaps both, will be upset.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/dec/27/labour-mp-david-taylor-dies
Eh? What “tradition” is that?
374. Plato December 27th, 2009 at 9:37 pm
“just like flamingos do by eating shellfish”
Never knew that. So if they eat moules mariniere they turn into Belgians?
376. For more information, go to http://www.somebullshittheguardianjustmadeup.co.uk
368 I think it is obvious that Southern Blacks have gained since State-enforced racial segregation came to an end. I think it is “drivel” to suggest otherwise. Do you think that many Southern Blacks would want to return to the pre-1960 World?
Both SSI and Stars & Stripes have shown that politics in the South is a good deal more nuanced than you claim. In some Southern States registered Democrats still far outnumber registered Republicans, and Democratic legislatures are returned. But they are Democrats who are well to the Right of the national party. Prior to 1960 or so, the South voted Democrat at every level; now it votes Republican at the highest level (although Democrats like Bill Clinton could carry several Southern States).
377 Only if Belgians are full of carotenoids
“Flamingo feathers obtain their wonderful rosy pink color from pigments in the organisms they eat. The flamingos’ feathers, legs, and face are colored by their diet, which is rich in alpha and beta carotenoid pigments.
Carotenoids in crustaceans such as those in the flamingo diet are frequently linked to protein molecules, and may be blue or green. After being digested, the carotenoid pigments dissolve in fats and are deposited in the growing feathers, becoming orange or pink. The same effect is seen when shrimp change color during cooking. The amount of pigment laid down in the feathers depends on the quantity of pigment in the flamingo’s diet. An absence of carotenoids in its food will result in new feather growth that is very pale; the existing pigment is lost through molting…”
http://www.webexhibits.org/causesofcolor/7D.html
368, M(NJ) - you do make some good points though they are somewhat mared by your categoricalism!
Esp, point that Southern rural Blacks advanced by heading north or to big cities. However, conditions in the Black Belt counties were so horrific by later stages of Jim Crow that even the sad situation of today is in many (but not all) respects a significant improvement.
But where you are really off base (though in a well-argued way) is in your thesis that the Sold South has Risen Again.
Of course part of debate is what you regard as solid. In my view, and for purposes of debate, suggest that historically speaking this would be 90% plus adherence to one party.
That’s NOT situation in South today, nor is is likely. For reason that the hegemony and unity of White Southerners is NOT as strong as you suggest. Though it’s strength is undeniable, there have ALWAYS beens strong currents not far from surface. But time will tell.
Given the Union can only be either maintained or dissolved, a reason to not end it is automatically a reason to continue it.
375 That is quite so.
Don’t misunderstand me; I was very hostile to the Cameron project at the outset, and remain sceptical about some aspects of it. I think that the swings you identify in the Midlands are overwhelmingly down to hostility to Labour, not love for the Conservatives.
In office, however, I think that the electoral advantages of pleasing working class and lower middle class voters in swing seats will far outweigh the advantages of trying to keep left wing opinion formers sweet.
380. That’s fascinating. Are carotenoids hard/expensive to synthesize, so it makes sense for flamingos to depend on a dietary source? It sounds as though they can subsist on food that doesn’t contain them, but that they’d be screwed insofar as their colour is important to them.
(I remember reading an essay by Stephen J. Gould that dwelt on the fact that flamingos’ colour is nothing do do with concealment (against the setting sun). Can’t remember what purpose he said it does serve though.)
David Cameron = Angela Merkel in boxer shorts.
source: http://www.boxers-or-briefs.com/celebrity-boxers-or-briefs-list/
382. Absolutely. Those can be lumped together. A good reason for not ending is a good reason for continuing.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6968864.ece
Looks like the media have been swallowing Labour’s spin hhok, line ansd sinker.
“longer than two months” ?!? - try nearly five months
The Times of London -> R.I.P.
I thank a number of posters for there comments, I can certainly see the political and moral case
302 - “It’s quite simple. It’s enshrined in the INTERNATIONAL COVENANT ON CIVIL AND POLITICAL RIGHTS Article 1 - “All peoples have the right of self-determination. By virtue of that right they freely determine their political status and freely pursue their economic, social and cultural development.””
The same is true of the residents of the Isle of Wight, Cornwall and 17 Acacia Avenue. My question was in which way was the Scottish case different to any other component part of the UK. To use OldNats analogy, why should the residents of 18 Acacia Avenue have a veto?
365. 366. *Joins in hug*
(Sorry, Morris Dancer, was I hugging your neck too tightly?)
‘We won’t fight a class war with Tories, says Ed Balls’
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6969068.ece
302,388 - wait until Todd Palin hears that the UN’s black helicopters are on HIS side!
390 But, that is actually what they will be fighting.
“Ed Balls has rejected claims that he and Gordon Brown are conducting a class war against the Conservatives.
Mr Brown’s closest ally said in an interview with The Times that Labour must fight the election as the party defending low and middle-income families while depicting the Tories as representing the financial interests of a rich minority.”
391 Where do you think that Sarah Palin’s career will go from here?
38. SF
“In office, however, I think that the electoral advantages of pleasing working class and lower middle class voters in swing seats will far outweigh the advantages of trying to keep left wing opinion formers sweet.”
I do hope so, not only because it would be the right thing to do for both the Conservatives and the country but also because the howls of outrage from the leftists would be so amusing.
My worry is that a Conservative government would start paying too much heed to London based opinion formers and not enough to the new Conservative voters in towns with lower division football teams.
394 I really don’t think that’s an option. The Conservative Party (like Labour) no longer commands the support of millions of core voters, in the way it did in the Fifties. One reason why I welcome the continued existence of UKIP is that it reminds the Conservative Party that there is a price to be paid if it ignores the concerns of its supporters.
384 My canaries would eat their usual food [egg, cress, apple and seed] which was supplemented by a foods such as red peppers, carrots, tomatoes etc to enhance their red/peachy colours.
Carotenoids cost a few pence to produce and aren’t required at all in their diet - the colour is a natural by-product. Having lived with canaries for several years - the changes in their feathers is quite amazing!
You can alter the colour of flowers such as hydrangeas from pink to blue by altering the pH/aluminium concentration of the soil.
http://www.hydrangeashydrangeas.com/colorchange.html
I’ve grown carnations that were half blue/half pink by mixing parents - nature is an amazing thing.
Thanxxx NOA
372 Sea Shanty Irish
I don’t think it’s as simple as saying that language is the defining issue. Certainly that’s a major factor in defining identity, and sometimes that has a political resonance - as in Quebec, Wales and both Belgian communities. However, institutions are also critical factors. Quebec and Scotland have always been political and cultural entities. The Catholic Church was the institution which allowed the Irish to focus on their separate identities, whereas in Belgium it was the only thing holding the two communities together!
I can understand how the language issue can get in the way of inclusive politics in Belgium, Quebec and Belgium, but it’s not an issue of much note here.
The tragedy for the English is that many of their institutions are also seen as British, there’s little left that is identifiably English, other than “warm beer and skittles”. I suspect that’s why so many of them get very edgy when Britishness is rejected. another richard’s post earlier is remarkably similar to the thinking behind the Punch cartoons stereotyping the Irish at the height of the Home Rule movement - a sad attempt to display superiority to those who reject the basis of the British/English identity.
388. Apoplexy December 27th, 2009 at 9:57 pm
It comes down to realpolitik in the end - doesn’t everything? Look at the fate of various Unionist enclaves in the South in the Amercian Civil War. West Virginia had a Federal army on hand (commanded by the same NJ democrat George B. McClellan who was getting an airing upthread). Result: it did an ‘17 Acacia Avenue’ and became a state in its own right. East Tennessee didn’t have such an army and remains part of Tennessee to this day.
Swapping bullets for ballots, if Mebyon Kernow can win a Parliamentary seat then they can probably get Cornish devolution on the agenda (and appeal to the International Convention etc etc). If not, not.
388 Apoplexy
My analogy was with Indonesia and East Timor - which you have failed to give a response to. Care to do so now?
Back.
3 pints and a nice takeaway curry.
Have i missed anything?
How’s malcolmG?
382 LondonStatto
“Given the Union can only be either maintained or dissolved, a reason to not end it is automatically a reason to continue it.”
Quite wrong, of course.
It can also be altered - indeed it was in 1999. In fact, it can be altered to the extent that the remaining shell is a pretence. For a historical precedent look at the Holy Roman Empire (which you may remember was actually none of those three things).
393, SF “Where do you think that Sarah Palin’s career will go from here?”
Talk about yer crapshoot! Even my trusty ouija board is silent on that one.
Don’t know where she’s going, but am going to keep an eye on her, that’s for sure, as she flashes her smile and rallies red-blooded Americans to keep the government’s stinking hands off their medicare . . .
How many more Labour ministers will come out and declare there won’t be class war? Stop bringing it up! Here’s Basil not mentioning the war: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yfl6Lu3xQW0
400 - Ok, Its a bogus comparison. East Timor was invaded and occupied by Indonesia becoming by force part of Indonesia until Indonesia reliquished control in 2002 when it became a soveriegn state again. This is rather different to the Scottish Parliament choosing to sign the Act of Union in 1707.
401, aveit - say, are you really ffion Hague? And did you just share half a case with hubby?
405 no but i do like her!
Richard Nabavi 24% 152
David Herdson 19% 119
Yellow Submarine 25% 161
Easterross 16% 99
Peter the Punter 16% 101
632 votes total
wonder what things would be with STV?
407 Ave it ahead?
371 - in reply to point one, you could also say that we have been at war many times since 1707 - and not always with foriegners! The massive opposition to the Iraq war in Scotland (I know also opposed in England by many) and well as Trident has convinced many Scots that Scotland would actually be more peaceful outwith the Union.
re; ffion Hague, once chided David Butler for not using her photo on the cover of The British General Election of 2001. Far as I was concerned, she was about the only thing worth observing at the election that year.
BUT even after hundreds of emails, phone calls and personal visits to Conservative Central Office they absolutely refused to give me her schedule!
404 Apoplexy
Fine. You now accept that all of the inhabitants of a state do not have a veto where part of it wishes to secede. For some peculiar reason, you seem to restrict that situation to cases where there was a successful military invasion.
Hence, you accept the right of Wales to secede from England, yet not that of Scotland which chose to sign a Treaty of Union, in which it retained its law and distinctive institutions.
Presumably, therefore, you accept that all citizens of the EU should have a vote on whether UK/England should decide to secede from the EU?
383 Sean F I was very hostile to the Cameron project at the outset, and remain sceptical about some aspects of it.
I come from the exact opposite position. I was hugely impressed by Cameron’s approach to the leadership campaign, and joined the party as a direct result of his being chosen. I had two reasons. Firstly his brand of centre-friendly Conservatism matches my political views very closely, and secondly I was impressed by the fact that the party, in choosing Cameron, had finally thrown off the ‘eternal opposition’ mantle and looked ready and eager to resume its rightful place as the natural party of government - something it had lost sight of for a decade.
Of course the Conservative victory which I expect and hope for is primarily a rejection of Labour; it is always the case (with the one possible and unique exception of 1945) that governments lose elections, oppositions don’t win them. But, no matter how unpopular, a government (at least in the UK) will never lose an election unless there is a credible and reasonably attractive opposition - look at 1992, or even 2005. That is why Cameron’s achievement so far has been so impressive; the brand was so tarnished that it had virtually been written off, at least in the short term. He has recognised and addressed that.
Looking forward, whilst clearly there are lots of different and sometimes contradictory expectations from various groups, I don’t think that necessarily spells 2014/2015 electoral disaster for a future Cameron government; after all, the same was true of Blair in 1997. The trick will be balancing the competing forces; the last couple of years suggest that Cameron and Osborne are very well aware of how to go about that.
371, MichaelK
1. Great Britain was not at peace, despite being ‘one polity’ in 1715 and 1745-46 (and the ensuing atrocities in the Highlands) JackW, who was there, will give you chapter and verse.
2. There are cultural differences, but the English don’t realise it (Scots are cultured, Engish are uncultured).
3. The ‘common language’ was imposed, and is not universal. I live in a Lallans-speaking area. A local described his unhappy marriage to me as ‘twae fowk bidin i the yin hus’. I doubt this would be readily understood in Mayfair. I’m sure you had ‘bubblyjock till yule’ but you might not be. Ireland also had English imposed as a majority language, and that did not lead to an enduring union, nor did the commonality of language with the revolting colonists of what became the USA prevent their strange attempt to make tea with cold seawater (I believe they still can’t make a decent cup of tea). Basically, pog mo thoin.
4. Up until the Union of the Crowns, Scotland only fought England (except for the Crusades), and usually only when attacked. Since then, we have left our blood on every continent, and fought everyone from our oldest allies, the French to the Japanese, via half the tribes in Africa.
Scotland has more than pulled its military weight - 1/4 of Nelson’s captains and 1/3 of his crews at Trafalgar were Scots, and Scotland had the highest per capita death rate in World War I, higher even than Serbia. http://www.gcph.co.uk/index2.php?option=com_docman&task=doc_view&gid=179&Itemid=71
My relatives fought in the British Army, Navy and Air Force in both world wars, several of them died, and two never really recovered from wounds and gassing. My father came back from World War II with a bullet wound in the arm, a sharpnel cut to the head, a damaged back and recurring malaria. Scottish independence would not alter this, nor would it end Remembrance Day.
5. Waste of money? Most of what governments do (especially G Broon’s government) is a waste of money. Why break a long-standing tradition? Waste of time? Our politicians are a waste of time (also a waste of space and good food). If they are mucking about with the constitution, at least they are leaving the economy alone, thus giving it a much better chance of recovery. I have never understood complaints about long parliamentary breaks - the more they are on holiday, the less damage they can do.
This asymmetrical devolution we have makes no sense at all, and only stirs up resentment. A unitary UK makes sense, and is viable, a federal UK makes sense, though the disparity in population between England and the other nations is difficult, and total independence makes sense, and is viable. Since we cannot go back to a unitary state, and there is no serious appetite in England (or Scotland) for federalism, then indendence is ultimately inevitable.
For the precise mechanism of independence, see my post at 338 above.
The residents of 17 Acacia Avenue are not “a people”. National self-determination depends on a common identity based on land, language, culture and history.
Ultimately I think that what “nationality” one is depends on what one feels, rather than any rational cost/benefit analysis of the economy or infrastructure or whatever. Ultimately, I am against Scottish devolutiomn, and against continuing membership of the EU, because I “feel” Unionist. My country is the United Kingdom, not “Britain” or “England” or “Europe”.
401. Malcolm Gee is probably in an empty room trying to emulate Dennis Wise.
411 I would accept that the Scots have the right to secede, if a majority wish to do so, but the terms of the secession would still have to be negotiated with the political representatives of the remaining UK.
On the substantive issue, I would say that Scotland pre-1707 was a failed State. Within a couple of generations, you saw the Scottish Englightenment, and the country was on the way to becoming an economic superpower; so, clearly, something happened post-Union, that wasn’t happening pre-Union.
411. oldnat December 27th, 2009 at 10:43 pm
I’m sure you know this, but it’s interesting that the Lisbon Treaty does set out a process whereby member states can leave the EU, and which cannot be blocked by the other members.
Big hug on offer to Plato (if still required)….
front pages - bomber on plane.
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/UK-News/Newspaper-Front-Pages—The-Papers—Monday-December-28-2009/Media-Gallery/200912415508926?lpos=UK_News_Left_Promo_Region_0&lid=GALLERY_15508926_Newspaper_Front_Pages_-_The_Papers_-_Monday%2C_December_28%2C_2009
411 - Dont get me wrong, personally I have no problem with Scotland going its own way, and to be honest the sooner the better for all concerned. Similarly I would be equally happy if the UK seceded from the EU and for similar reasons, that much that is distinctively English is being overturned by European ideas and institutions. So dont load your explanations with such confrontation terms, I am seeking to understand, given the breadth of knowledge of Scots independence thinking on these forums, how it would be legal and proper for Scotland to secede from the union purely from its own self-determination and yet wouldnt be for most other regions in the UK (cornwall, the isle of wight, 17 acacia avenue etc).
398 Oldnat, I have lived in Quebec.
And my feeling is that Quebec is far more different from the rest of Canada than either Scotland or Wales are from England.
Quebec is far more wealthy than either Scotland or Wales. It has the economic clout to go it alone, it has historical, cultural and linguistic differences from the rest of Canada. It has the grievances of a language scorned, and the historical baggage of a conquered people and the bitterness of widespread discrimination against Francophone speakers in the in the past.
And still, many referendums down the line, Quebec has not broken free of Canada.
It will be much more difficult for Scotland or Wales to leave the UK (i.e. to win a majority in referendum on independence) than it will be for Quebec to leave Canada.
In fact, my prediction is that the Coming of Cameron will not be a boon for the Nationalists. Labour (having lost the GE rather massively) will be back in power in Cardiff and Holyrood in 2011.
Back in power and playing the Welsh and Scottish cards against Cameron’s English Conservatives.
I hope I am wrong, but I don’t think I am.
Sean Fear, looking to your LDS roots, do you think Mitt Romney’s got a shot in 2012 and do you want him to?
421 yes indeed. SNP had their high point at holyrood in 2007 and labour will be safely back there in 2011 and in the forseeable future.
SNP will once again slide away to be a small party in scotland like 1979
As fascinating as these debates about Scotland maybe are they not sterile and pointless?
The Scottish Parliament could vote for a referendum on Independence, then the Scottish people could vote for it, then it would happen (because no Westminster Government would have the moral authority to say no). So the whole thing is in the hands of the Scots themselves.
Perhaps the reason that it still has not happened is that the majority of Scots don’t want to be independent.
414 JohnLoony
My country is the United Kingdom, not “Britain” or “England” or “Europe”.
I recognise the validity of that feeling. Last century you would have opposed Irish Independence (maybe you still do
). However, the reality is that we are real political “enemies”. If I win, you lose. If you win, I lose. You wish to take away Scottish control over Scottish domestic issues - even those enshrined in the Union Treaty.
416 Sean Fear
“I would accept that the Scots have the right to secede, if a majority wish to do so, but the terms of the secession would still have to be negotiated with the political representatives of the remaining UK.”
Actually they wouldn’t. If the English were intransigent and refused to negotiate, that wouldn’t stop Scots Independence if that’s what the people of Scotland decided should happen. Of course, disentangling matters which are currently conjoined would be much better handled if the English behaved normally and discussed the details of disengagement.
398. oldnat
“another richard’s post earlier is remarkably similar to the thinking behind the Punch cartoons stereotyping the Irish at the height of the Home Rule movement - a sad attempt to display superiority to those who reject the basis of the British/English identity.”
You have me all wrong, I would be very happy to see an independent Scotland as it would effectively mean an independent England. I think relations between England and Scotland would be much improved following separation. After separation there would be a basis for mutual cooperation and respect following shared interests and traditions but allowing each country to operate in its own best interest At present though the political establishment forces together peoples who have different wishes and which is causing continual and increasing irritation.
For the rest of my life I will be paying extra tax because of the incompetance of Scottish politicians and Scottish bankers, why should I look upon the political union that caused this with any favour.
320 oldnat
“There are regular challenges to Unionists to give positive reasons for Scotland to remain in the Union. They always remain unanswered.”
If I were challenged to give positive reasons for Liverpool remaining part of England, it would be difficult to answer.
I guess it is like entertaining relatives at Christmas: they are there to be tolerated not enjoyed.
Did MalcolmG lay Kauto Star on Betfair?
424 HurstLlama
Agreed. The debate is postulated on a situation where the Scots did agree that independence was appropriate. I’m simply countering the arguments of those who claim that we have no such right. They are wrong.
422 Forgive my ignorance, but what is LDS?
I find it hard to be partisan about US politics, as the issues are always different to our own, and a British Tory should strive to have cordial relations with allied countries, whatever the political persuasion of their government. Having a government that is sympathetic to Britain is more important than having a government that is Right Wing. I don’t think either US party is sympathetic to Britain, although it’s clear that the US armed forces generally are.
To my mind, Romney seems to be the most credible Republican candidate. But, I don’t know if that makes him the favourite among Republican grass roots. I think that Republicans are generally more pragmatic in choosing Presidential candidates than most people give them credit for, and actually more pragmatic than the Democrats are. Democrat Presidential candidates are usually drawn from the liberal wing of the party; Republicans may be from the Right or Left of the Party, but they usually choose the candidate who gives them the best chance.
425 There are many issues that would still have to be negotiated. No one gets independence on entirely their own terms (the Southern Irish Nationalists certainly didn’t in 1921)
oldnat
P.S. Your unequalled knowledge of Scots constitutional law and history is not matched in your knowledge of linguistics.
Who “imposed” the English language on the Scots? Was each mother and child interposed with a colonial guard from Eton and Oxford?
Sean Fear
Are you a Mormon?
425. I would indeed be happy for the whole of Ireland to be reincorporated into the UK. But the people of Ireland wouldn’t want to be, so I’m happy with that. In fact, I would have preferred it if the Boundary Commission had finished its job properly in the 1920s in re-drawing the boundary of Northern Ireland so as to exclude as many nationalists as possible - instead of leaving a poisonous legacy of half a million people who felt that they were in the wrong country.
426 another richard
“You have me all wrong”.
No I haven’t. I read your earlier post. You consider easterross to be “mentally disadvantaged”, just because of the part of the current UK that he lives in.
You clearly have little understanding of the relative economies of the UK and Scotland. If you actually want to learn something about it, have a look at the GERS reports.
You may have some redeeming features, but they aren’t obvious.
431 Seth O. Logue
You have become confused. I made no such claim.
432 Not at all. Do most Americans object to a Mormon candidate?
433 Absolutely. I think Northern Ireland’s history would have been much happier if South Armagh, South Down, and the West Bank of the Foyle had been placed in the Irish Free State.
Scottish Nationalists (that minority view) ruin threads.
Why give more credit than other minority views (3%).
Best to just ignore them.
SNP =
413. FergusMac December 27th, 2009 at 10:45 pm
Thanks for your reply. I hope it was apparent from my original post, but if not: I don’t actually hold with my own “five points”. They are just the skeleton of the case I would think of making for the Union, if I were paid to do so. I was hoping to draw out a better statement of the Unionist case from someone who believes in it.
Of my own effort, imo point 1) is the only one that is really valid. (And even there, as you say, we did have continued warfare in the first half of the 18th century, so it’s not clear-cut.)
Regarding point 4), I’m aware of the Scottish military contribution. My father was a Scot and he and his father between him fought in just about every possible theatre between 1900 and 1970.
I completely agree with the conclusions in your penultimate paragraph.
412. RN
“Looking forward, whilst clearly there are lots of different and sometimes contradictory expectations from various groups, I don’t think that necessarily spells 2014/2015 electoral disaster for a future Cameron government; after all, the same was true of Blair in 1997. The trick will be balancing the competing forces; the last couple of years suggest that Cameron and Osborne are very well aware of how to go about that.”
The economic situation Cameron and Osborne will inherit is the exact opposite of the one Blair and Brown got.
This doesn’t mean that the Conservatives can’t be reelected or even reelected with an increased majority but I think the expectations of some groups will be frustrated.
This though isn’t necessarily a total drawback, upsetting guardianistas would help keep already disgruntled Conservative voters from drifting off to UKIP.
What I think would be disasterous for a Conservative government would be an attempt to be all things to all people. It’s possible, if difficult, to do that in opposition to an unpopular government. But not in government itself, certainly not in the present economic circumstances.
oldnat
My apologies. I attributed FergusMac’s comments [413 para 3] to you by mistake.
Just when will you say something that I can ridicule?
The celtic fringe is the ribbon in Britannia’s hair.
430 Sean Fear
Of course, newly independent countries don’t get everything “on their own terms”. That’s not what I was saying. If the English go in the huff and don’t talk, then the settlement will be worse (for both parties) than it might otherwise have been. That doesn’t alter the fact that should the Scots vote for it, the lack of English negotiators won’t stop Independence.
433 JohnLoony
What you describe was nothing to do with the Boundary Commission of the time. The Ulster Unionists originally intended to keep the whole of Ulster out of the Free State. It was only when they worked out the implications of including Monaghan and Cavan, that they agreed to let them go. It was their intransigence which prevented the partition of Fermanagh and Monaghan. a peculiarity of Ulster political geography is that in many areas, the Scots Protestant Planters seized the better drained upper slopes, leaving the boggier valley floors to the indigenous population.
in many parts of Ulster the political divide is horizontal rather than vertical.
412 - Blood hell Richard, you’re a Tory, I only voted for you because I thought you were an independent.
After that articulate post/plea for last minute votes I’ll add my final GOTNV missive.
“Richard Nabavi has a pet hamster which is dying of a rare muscle wasting disease, Richard and his hamsters journey have weighed heavily this year, he needs your vote.”
Is there a betting market for Iran?
Protests suggest the protesters are now fighting back…
http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2009/12/27/article-0-07B5511A000005DC-85_634×475_popup.jpg
442 Sea Shanty Irish
Are you referring to the hair on the head, or the short curly stuff?
444 tim
But Plato and Ave It have already voted.
Is still too late to hug Plato? If not, here’s my hugs.
Have the postal votes for POTY been counted yet?
447
448 TSE
“Have the postal votes for POTY been counted yet?”
Who knows? The electoral register is probably in the skip already.
443 There was intransigence on both sides. The Irish government was actually offered South Armagh in 1925.
I can’t understand why they turned down this wonderful piece of territory.
437. ken wasabi December 27th, 2009 at 11:17 pm
Well, I guess I like talking about Scottish/English independence because one can sometimes find common ground with people unexpectedly, so it’s fun to discuss.
That’s not really true about, say, tax vs spend, peace vs war, big vs small state, EU-philia vs phobia etc etc. Nobody ever budges an inch on those questions so it just becomes an exchange of postcards.
Either way, Scottish independence:
* would change things a lot
* is not that unlikely
so it seems worth talking about?
Btw, I thought you were strongly in favour of self-determination vis-a-vis the UK and the EU. Not so for Scotland vs the UK?
oldnat
Take the chip from off your shoulder.
It was a joke about the most core of Labour core voters and like all jokes it contains a strong element of truth.
Like it or not the Glenrothes and Glasgow NE byelections showed Scotland to be full of such ultra core Labour people. As David Herdson and Gwynfa have pointed out in 18 months time Labour will be back in charge in Scotland, with support from those Scottish LibDems you all despise so much.
I’m from Yorkshire, if you want you can make any joke you want about Yorkshiremen. If they’re funny I’ll laugh as well.
Or you could pay me back the extra tax I’ll be paying for the rest of my life because of the actions of incompetant Scottish politicians and incompetant Scottish bankers.
451. Sean Fear December 27th, 2009 at 11:36 pm
“was actually offered South Armagh in 1925″
Oh dear. We should have thrown the ball and waited for them to catch it
The one thing about Scottish Independence I cant seem to get my head around is, let’s assume the SNP calls and wins a referendum on independence.
Eventually the SNP will become unpopular (as all governments do) and be booted out of office.
I’m assuming a pro unionist party will then take power.
What happens next, Scotland rejoins the union for a few years, then leaves a few years when the SNP come back to power?
Will Scotland become the political equivalent of Schroedingers cat?
454 I suppose it was a bit like offering someone the chance to stick their head in a bucket of sh*t.
451 Sean Fear
I didn’t know about that offer in 1925. Thanks. I’ll look it up.
440 another richard - Yes, all fair points, especially your point about the economic situation which an incoming government will inherit.
A lot obviously depends on the state of the opposition; I think there is a pretty good chance that Labour will be in severe disarray for several years, with an unelectable leader (they’ve got several of those to choose from).
On the question of attempting to be all things to all people: Of course all governments face competing pressures; the question is how skilful will Cameron and Osborne be in dodging those pressures without compromising core principles or alienating the majority. It is possible, with skill, to offer real or symbolic ‘red meat’ to keep certain groups happy without actually doing very much in reality - Blair did this with the Minimum Wage and the fox-hunting bill. Cameron could do it with, for example, the IHT changes (which are of little economic significance), with quango-bashing (some of which will be very real and significant, but some of which will be largely symbolic), with changes to the law on criminal liability when intruders enter your home, etc.
I don’t want to sound too cynical, because that would be misleading; it’s more a question of finding some popular, but not too populist, measures which have a greater importance to voters than they perhaps merit, and which are moderately beneficial, even if they are not, rationally speaking, priorities.
455 If Scotland votes for independence, then that’s that. People scarcely ever vote to return to the country they’ve seceded from - however badly things go for them - and if they were to do so, there’s no guarantee the other parts of the country would want them back.
How petty is this government?
Lord Mayor denied knighthood after backing bankers’ bonuses
The Government is to distance itself further from the City by breaking with tradition and declining to knight the Lord Mayor of London, Ian Luder.
Luder, the 681st Lord Mayor who stepped down last month, will become the first top City Alderman to be denied the honour since Harold Howard in 1954. For the past century, with very rare exceptions, every Lord Mayor not already knighted has received the honour.
Mr Luder, a former Labour councillor, is thought to have angered officials with his defence of bankers’ bonuses.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/6896337/Lord-Mayor-denied-knighthood-after-backing-bankers-bonuses.html
I’ve wondered previously about the decision over the possible Irish border adjustment in the 1920s.
If it had taken place would the ‘offcuts’ have been absorbed into the counties on their new side of the border or would the following counties have been created:
Northern Ireland
East Donegal
North Monaghan
Southern Ireland
West Derry
West Tyrone
South Fermanagah
South Armagh
South Down
If the latter there might have been ongoing calls for further boundary adjustments.
“Will Scotland become the political equivalent of Schroedingers cat?”
You mean we will have to open the box to find out whether it is alive, or not?
455. For Scotland to become independent, the Scottish people need to take the independence process out of the hands of the SNP. Then the popularity or otherwise of the SNP is not an issue.
462 - Something along those lines.
Scotland will be something that is both dead and alive to the United Kingdom of Great Britain & Northern Ireland, when/if it leaves the Union, but some people might want it back in the UK
On thread sadly a Conservative councillor died in my City a few weeks back but less than six months to the next council elections. Legally a by-election does not need to be held as he would have been up for election in May any way - do not the same rules apply to Parliament as obviously it is less than six months until the GE what ever happens - any one know?
455 TSE
I don’t think you understand Scottish politics!
The Tories opposed devolution, but when the Scots voted for it, they accepted it and have worked multi party politics better then Lab or LD.
The LDs will do anything to try to cling on to some form of political base in Scotland. They aren’t going to be Unionist after a positive vote for Independence.
Labour in Scotland aren’t natural Unionists. They believe in centralising power, and in a post-independent Scotland will be fighting on a basis of centralising power in Edinburgh.
After Independence (if it comes) there will be no major Unionist parties.
461 I don’t see how there would have been further call for further boundary adjustments after that.
Neither side dealt in good faith with the Boundary Commission. The Southern Irish wanted everything apart from Antrim, North Armagh, and North Down, the Unionists sought the largest area that had a clear Protestant majority.
466 - I have to admit, my understand in Scottish Politics is lacking, but I’ve always taken an interest in Scottish matters, having been born in that wonderful city of Edinburgh.
I’ve always thought there will always be some inside the Scottish Labour party, that will be permanently agitating to get Scotland back into the Union.
465. madmacs December 27th, 2009 at 11:47 pm
I think the rule regarding local elections is the one Mark Senior referred to at 19. and I’m pretty certain that it doesn’t apply to Westminster seats.
Maybe someone has chapter and verse on this though.
466 oldnat
So what will happen to the SNP. Especially relevant if it isn’t the SNP that delivers independence.
468 - Further to that, my teacher on Scottish politics, was a Scottish Lib Dem, who pretty much confirms, that Stuart Dickson isn’t exaggerating when he describes Scottish Labour as a mafia.
I was shocked when he told me to google Gordon McMaster.
463 NoOffenceAlan
The SNP is just a vehicle. The apparatchiks within it will want to continue their political careers through it, but I don’t give a damn about politicians!
What might be interesting developments in Scottish politics would be if the pro-independence Scottish Green Party ate into the LD vote, and the pro-independence SSP ate into the Labour vote.
472 The SSP have surely destroyed themselves, however?
444 tim - Thanks for your help, your role as chief coordinator of Labour Supporters for Nabavi is much appreciated.
I haven’t given up on a late surge from the US and Far East, but at the moment it’s looking as though SeanT’s defection to the LibDems may have just tilted the balance.
“I don’t see how there would have been further call for further boundary adjustments after that.”
There were rather a lot of attempts at boundary adjustments on continental Europe after 1919.
If minor boundary changes had taken place in Ireland there would still have been many areas on the ‘wrong’ side of the border unless there had also been forced population transfers as happened between Greece and Turkey.
455. A Union is a two way street. Once England had lost the burden of Scotland and got used to lower taxes, Conservative government, lower unemployment, higher living standards and faster growth, I am not sure that the UKXS would want to revert to UK so easily, even if the S part of the UK did want to revert.
And another thing, we need never have another Gordon Brown bankrupting the country’s finances with 20% of GDP Public Sector Borrowing in a single year.
The argument to separate Scotland from England is that both would do better, without inflicting their quite different notions of political fairness/financial sense on each other.
We would make better neighbours than partners, now the empire’s moved on.
468. The Screaming Eagles December 27th, 2009 at 11:50 pm
“will be permanently agitating to get Scotland back into the Union”
Re-forming the Union would be close to impossible - you’d have to get agreement from all the proposed members and the chances of getting the Scottish and English populations to vote for that seem rather small?
So I wouldn’t expect Scottish Labour to agitate for the impossible.
453 another richard
Had it been a joke about Labour voters (it would still have been offensive) then you could have made that point.
You chose to insult an entire nation, so clearly the chip is yours.
I have far more decency than to insult Yorkshiremen because of where they live. You clearly lack decency.
465. It does if a petition from local voters demands one be called.
468 - If I read OldNat right, Scottish Labour dont really care about the union except as a vehicle to garner votes and increase their powerbase in Edinburgh, its therefore likely that they will ditch unionism the second it looks like there is a majority of votes in nationalism. Principled as ever
468 TSE
I think the attitude in Scottish Labour will change radically after the next GE.
Previously, Scots Labour politicians had the opportunity to pose as world politicians by being Brits. Does anyone seriously believe that an MP from a Scottish constituency will ever again hold one of the major UK offices of State? Clearly, since most of the rest of the Cabinet will be running English affairs, no Scots MP will have a place there.
Political ambition, and exercising power, will be denied to Scots MPs, and that pol;itical route will become simply a backwater.
480 - I take the view, that Labour realise, if they are ever to take power again in the UK, they will need Scottish MP’s and votes.
480 Apoplexy
You read me right!
475 Clearly, there were people who were bound to be on the wrong side of the Border, wherever it was drawn. But, I don’t think that it would have been feasible for Irish Nationalists to seek to make further territorial demands of a Northern Ireland that incorporated Antrim, North and Mid Down, North and Mid Armagh, County Londonderry, and large chunks of Fermanagh and Tyrone, and which was 80% Protestant, and hostile to them.
And realistically, why would you want to rule people who hate you?
465
‘Legally a by-election does not need to be held as he would have been up for election in May any way - do not the same rules apply to Parliament as obviously it is less than six months until the GE’
It’s really odd,on the one hand Nick Palmer keeps telling us how busy he is doing his job,the enormous hours he puts in but that same job can be left vacant for upto 6 months.
The end of this thread hints at what may come to be the political development of 2009 though we won’t know for years.
A number of factors pointed to a UKIP collapse in this years Euro’s. Instead they held ground with a small increase in the share of the vote. Given the fickle nature of protest votes and the troubles that had hit the party in terms of its 2004 MEP’s this years elections are a real feat of organisational contituity and brand building. The year has ended with Lord Pearson suceeding farage. This hasn’t gone wrong yet and may at least turn them into a two person band rather than one.
It raises the interesting question of wether the next Conservative government will face organised, serious opposition from the right for the first time.
You could begin to sketch the draws of a populist group moving beyond Europe as a core issue.
1. Respectable Climate Sceptism. I think this years UEA scandal is interesting not so much for what the leaked emails showed but by the emotional reaction they permited. Its always dangerous when certain thoughts are unsayable and that is where Climate scepticism had got. Firstly the political establishment has guilt tripped everyone into supporting the climate cause. Secondly the changes involved in carbonisation are huge and difficult and personal. Humans tend to be quite conservative. Thirdly many people will be naturally sceptical as it doesn’t seem to be getting any warmer in Britain unless you watch nature closely.
I think there could be a large gap in the market for someone to say what some people want to hear.
2. ” Radical” Islam. It would need further thought but there might be room for a ” the islamic world brought us X, of course I’m not anti Islamic but you have to admit that Y and Z on the streets of what is Britain not bangladesh is going too far.”
3. Any failure by Cameron to repeal the Hunting ban in due course.
4. I think Rumpey and Frumpy may have put Europe to bed as an issue for a while but it will return because it always does.
This isn’t a a prediction of doom for the next Conservative government. As I have observed before its another fish in the pond with the Lib Dems for anti government protest votes. I just think its a facinating topic to discuss given that fragmentation has always been a left wing issue in British politics not the right.
482 TSE
I was a member of the Labour Party for a while - to help argue the devolution case.
English Labour would certainly need the Scots - but unless the Scots MPs have a chance of getting office, there’s nothing in it for them. and id Scots are promoted, they damage their prospects in England.
btw I heard far more nasty anti-English comments (another richard in reverse) in the Labour Party than I ever did in the SNP!
Seth o Logue, 441. Since it was me you wanted to have a go at.
The imposition of language was through the school system. Both the Gaelic and Scots languages were proscribed in class. Long ago, when I was at school, you got the belt (i.e were hit on the hands with the leather tawse, famously made in Lochgelly in Fife) for speaking anything other than English. It is only in recent years that the Gaelic and Lallans/Doric have been given official sanction.
Mind you, one of my teachers (a physics teacher, but he was my class registration teacher and took us for Religious Education) used to enjoy making cross-language puns, e.g. ‘Many are called, but few are frozen’. One of my maths teachers, when suffering his usually early morning hangover (he only felt better after lifting us by the hair out of our seats, and bringing his fist down hard on our heads before our bahookies reached the seat) was known to forget and shout something like “The ensurs echt hunner an forty twa, ya widden-heidet wee scunner!”
The same phenomenon is clear in France, where, for example, Provencale and Breton are now respectable, after centuries of persecution at the hands of the centralising Francophone state.
486 Absolutely. The Conservative vote need not fragement to the Right, but the possibility that it may do so now exists, as it didn’t in the past.
oldnat
My prediction is that the next Scottish government will be an SNP-Con coalition; that a status quo vs full devolution vs independence referendum will be held with full devolution winning; that Salmond will subsequently be offered and accept a post in Cameron’s cabinet; and that Salmond will lead Scotland’s input into the definition and implementation of “full devolution” as well as broader constitutional reform (HoL, WLQ etc) through a first term Royal Commission.
Remember you read it here first.
When Scotland goes, can they (the Scots) take Gordon Brown’s debts with them? By 2010 the UK might be in debt to the tune of GBP 1 trillion. Could Scotland take half of it maybe when she goes, as it was her ‘genius’ that put us all in this mess?
I don’t know what the GDP of Scotland would be but let’s guess it would be 10% of the UK’s total. That would make it GBP 125 billion a year. The debts would be 400% of GDP. Not a great birthday present from Gordon.
In any case Scotland might have to kick off with 100% of GDP as debt, if taken on pro rata. She would have to establish economic credibility very quickly to finance these debts.
I guess Scotland might be tempted by the Euro, just as the Euro starts to disintegrate with Greece leading the way to the door.
Maybe a Scottish pound might be more sense to begin with, with a link to Sterling. As with Ireland, if Scotland went into the Euro, and Sterling fell, the Scottish economy would be badly hit by relative Euro appreciation, as RFUK (rest of Former UK) would be Scotland’s biggest market.
Plenty to think about moneywise, which never seems to get a mention by the independence enthusiasts. Is the SNP like Sinn Fein and into independence for real? Or into corruption and the EU like the Irish government?
What flavour of independence are we talking about?
488 But, the real problem is that, increasingly, any small language finds it hard to maintain a critical mass of people who use it as a first language.
Irish Gaelic has declined despite years of State promotion.
It’s not something I welcome. Increasingly, English is ceasing to become *our* language, as it becomes the World’s language.
@489:
If the Conservative vote does fragment to the right (presumably to UKIP) the fragmented votes will likely peel away from us where it matters least.
486. Good post (as usual) YS. You also forgot to mention that UKIP have the potential to be well-funded and to have supporters in the mainstream newspapers.
481. oldnat December 28th, 2009 at 12:06 am
“Does anyone seriously believe that an MP from a Scottish constituency will ever again hold one of the major UK offices of State?”
If the Union stays together and Labour win again, then yes.
The convention may grow up that Scots don’t hold ministries whose power has been devolved, but that would still leave quite a few major ones, even under devo-max. Prime Minister, Chancellor, Foreign Secretary, Defence Secretary and all kinds of internationalish stuff like Europe, Aid/Development etc.
Not sure about the convention anyway. Would anyone really bat an eyelid down south that the person running the English and Welsh NHS represented a Scottish constituency? (I mean, here on PB people would scream bloody murder, but in the country at large?)
oldnat
Ever heard a joke that begins ‘There was an Englishman, Scotsman and Irishman’?
National sterotypes exist and have always been a source of jokes. You might not like the stereotype but the fact still remains that Labour is politically dominant in Scotland and in under 18 months some Labour apparatchik will be calling the shots not Alex Salmond.
Perhaps you would like to explain how precisely I have managed to insult the entire Scottish nation? I take it you wont deny that there are benefit junkies, thick people and Labour tribal voters in Scotland.
Is everyone in Scotland like that? Of course not, just like not every Scot is mean or has a name beginning with Mc. But enough are for the sterotype to be valid.
So either stop being so insecure or change the national sterotype.
If the devastation of the Labour party in England is as total as is suggested then we may need to look afresh at directly elected Mayors. cameron is in favour and is said to want more but its not clear how he intends to get round voters reluctance to pass referrendums on the subject. I think I’m right in saying the majority have failed.
However is this another avenue for vanquished Labour talent to explore? I doubt many people of MP calibre would really want to run a local government but being a directly elected Executive may prove considerably more attractive than being a Council Leader
Its seems we are heading for an outcome where by in 5 months the largest single body under direct Labour control will be Manchester City Council.* There is a strong possibility that Liverpool will go Labour in either 2010 or 2011.
We all know that local government will be getting its share of the public spending cuts and it may be a slightly less unattractive route for some Labour politicans than ignomy. Running a city while getting a national name for your self repulsing ” Tory” cuts.
490 Seth O. Logue
You asked when I would post something that you could ridicule. I’m far too nice a guy to ridicule anything of yours.
Actually as to a referendum, I don’t think anyone doubts that “devolution max” aka “fiscal autonomy” would be the hands down winner in a referendum in Scotland.
It is naturally in the interests of Nationalists/Unionists to polarise the debate between the extremes - rather as London Statto did earlier. Alex Salmond is, however, a very clever politician and has endorsed the gradualist approach because the odds in favour of success that way are better. It’s no coincidence that he is a betting man and was a successful tipster!
492. Sean Fear. Yes, it is a sad fact that minority languages are under pressure. Even within England, once-strong dialects, such as Yorkshire or Cumbrian, are only pale shadows of their former selves, not least because of radio and TV, as well as formal education.
My great grandfather taught himself English as an adult (he was a native Gaelic speaker). I never remember my grandmother, who spoke Lallans all her life, speaking English at all.
In Sweden, where I lived for many years, there is a move to have some university courses, especially at postgraduate level, taught entirely in English. I regard this as a serious mistake, as it would eventually eradicate Swedish as a serious academic language for Swedes.
499. I believe there is research that suggests that all but a handful of human languages will be dead within the next 100 - 200 years? (And yes, would be a shame.)
493. I agree with you about that. However that also raises another long term possibility. I’m on the mailing list for the parliamentry briefing from the Countryside Alliance. They are excellent and having grown up in a rural county and going back regulalry to visit family i feel the issues. I wouldn’t go so far to say they were statist briefings. However like every lobbying group they want a lot of money spending and we all know that no government of any stripe will have any money. Countryside is another issue that UKIP could raw on if they ever got their act together.
488. It was illegal to write in English for three hundred years after the Norman Conquest. The language that later conquered the world (English) was illegal in its own home not all that long ago. Only French or Latin could be written.
The English upper class accent is said to be an echo of the French that the ‘nobles’ spoke at that time.
It seems that language and culture are highly durable despite all attempts at suppression.
Scotland only linked with England relatively recently after thousands of years as separate entities. It would seem only natural to return to the traditional separation, and rebuild Hadrian’s Wall. I am sure everyone would feel a lot happier!
To lighten the mood:
See Sen. Max Baucus on the floor of the Senate, drunk and attacking Republicans:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M5Y9X5ggxzA
497. Yellow Submarine December 28th, 2009 at 12:28 am
That’s precisely what I see as being good about directly elected mayors. They provide another route to national, or at least regional, prominence, which is not easily contained by party leaderships. Ken and Boris are the first fruits of this, and I think on balance we are better with them than without.
It is a teensy problem though that people keep voting down the referenda
499. Lets not confuse languages with dialect. Cumbrian, scouse, geordie and Scots, are despite what some silly european body claims, nothing more then regional dialects of English. They are not minority languages in their own right.
494. I think that ties in with an aspect of the excellent discussion in the later part of this thread about the nature of the Cameron project. I do get the feeling that there are a small but vocal number of people on the traditional wing of the Conservative party that are absolutely gagging to be betrayed. Because they want that psychologically it will almost certainly happen and UKIP will be waiting. The betrayal may have nothing to do with the cameron project - just the realities of government in what will be a very dificult period. But that doesn’t matter if it fulfils the psychological need.
That said we shouldn’t get too smug as Lib Dems. Apart from our own fragmentation issues with the Greens I think we overestimate how big that section of the Conservative party is becuase it fits our own preconceptions.
488 FergusMac
I attacked oldnat in the hope that I had finally found a statement which I could legitimately challenge. oldnat has the infuriating habit of being better read and more justified in his opinions on any subject I attempt to debate with him.
It turned out I had mistaken your comment for his. My apologies to you too.
As to the principal point. I was arguing that the dominance of any particular language and its ability to displace competing languages is not wholly determined by an imposed social or political policy. That languages develop according to their own internal linguistic rules and gain dominance, combine or become extinguished in ways that are independent of state intervention.
State policy can partially revive almost extinct languages - Czech and Welsh are good examples as well as those given in your post - but holding back the tide of English would be like Canute competing with the waves.
I am pleased to recall that my personal experience of being educated under a Scottish pedogogue was somewhat less traumatic than yours. Perhaps it was because the school was located in South East England and the only errors of language which qualified for correction were those of pronunciation and correct usage.
495 MichaelK
The fact that English PBers would “scream blue murder” (and more importantly, the English Press) would be quite enough to scare Labour from risking their English votes by nominating an MP from a Scottish as opposed to an English constituency to senior office. Remember that (if we assume that Labour lose the GE), the next leader will be Southern English middle class.
496 another richard
If I was insecure, I’d hardly be posting here where few agree with my views.
Those who are insecure frequently demonstrate that by insulting other groups, to make them feel better about themselves.
It’s actually possible to say something like “Sorry, that was a cheap shot, and I wasn’t thinking about what I posted”. Someone who was secure would be able to do that. I understand that those who feel weak and vulnerable find apologising difficult.
It’s amazing how much time families take up! So the first chance to wish all pbers a merry Christmas.
I think the government will hang on shamelessly to the end with this seat vacant. Two deaths in mid January 1997, both still vacant at the election.
505. “They are not minority languages in their own right.”
Thank heavens the expert has now spoken, and we can forget all about that silly misconception we’ve nursed along for centuries.
505 Notme
Scots and modern English are least as different as Danish and Swedish, or Dutch and High German. Cumbrian and Yorkshire had a great deal more Anglo-Saxon and Norse words than modern English, e.g. ‘yill’ for ale (öl in Swedish) Yill is also Scots. I have heard someone in Northumberland say “A’ll gan hyem” (almost purre Norwegian). Hauvermeal is Scots for oats (havremjöl in Swedish). Ad be gie sweirt tae owersett the hale leid, Notme, gin ye’ll hae mair ye maun speir aff Oldnat or Stuart.
Dialect my *!ӣ%!
507 Seth
You are a seriously civilized person. I’m honoured to debate with you.
511. “A’ll gan hyem” is commonly used here amongst certain types, its just a bastardisation of ‘i am going home’.
Its still dialect, get over it. Phonetically spelling english words in a regional accent does not create a language.
I Learned the Cumbrian sheep counting thing ( Yan, Tan, Tethera ? ) at school though I’m unaware of any real dialect still existing. That said the first time I ever rang the BBC to complain about a programme was when they subtitled a documentary about sheep farmers based in the Fells! It was perfectly clear to me !
Though a quick google will show up website dedicated to ressurecting ancient Cymbric !
509. Either that or you are just more psychologically stable than most on here…
487 - Hang on, Oldnat, you were a member of the Labour party? That’s the sort of comment that gets you banned from Pb and banished to Labour list.
Glad you saw the error of your ways
497. YS
“If the devastation of the Labour party in England is as total as is suggested then we may need to look afresh at directly elected Mayors. cameron is in favour and is said to want more but its not clear how he intends to get round voters reluctance to pass referrendums on the subject. I think I’m right in saying the majority have failed.”
Not to mention with the Conservative certain to enter the decline phase in local government from 2012 at the latest a host of Labour and LibDem mayors of large cities might not be to the advantage of a Conservative government or local Conservative parties.
In particular the thought of a ‘Greater Manchester Mayor’ would be anathema to the Trafford and Bury Conservatives.
Directly elected Mayors are also another layer of government with attendent costs.
511 FergusMac
After that, it’s probably time to start celebrating Hogmanay!
PBers never be forgot,
Even Yellow Submar-ine.
We’re a’ guid freens here (even Tim),
for auld lang syne .
CHORUS:
For auld lang syne, PB,
for auld lang syne,
we’ll tak the bookies’ money yet,
for auld lang syne.
And surely ye’ll haud your idea !
and surely I’ll haud mine !
But the Sassenachs are nae bad fowk,
despite auld lang syne.
CHORUS
We a’ hae read the runes a’ wrang,
and paid oot shadsy’s fine ;
But we’ll tak the bookies’ money yet,
for auld lang syne.
CHORUS
Christina D, an’ easterross,
are Tories braw an’ fine;
But Dickson’s crew will see them aff,
The Union’s deid lang syne.
CHORUS
But there’s a hand, my Tory freen !
and gie’s a hand o’ thine !
We’ll sink the ****ing Labour yet,
for auld lang syne.
CHORUS
502 B0ll0cks.
If it was illegal to write in English until 1366, who wrote the Anglo-Saxon Chronicle (continued until 1154), Layamon’s Brut, Havelock the Dane, and others?
And as you should be aware, most of Northumberland and parts of Tyne & Wear and Cumbria, are north of the Wall. It wasn’t a boundary in Roman times, and certainly isn’t now.
517. Gosh, it’s almost like reading a different language.
I think the most interesting approach to reastablishing a language was with Hebrew on the formation of the State of Israel. IIRC, the government, faced with the problem of creating a national identity and language from all the Jewish people of the Diaspora, and despite the rival claims of Yiddish, ordered that Hebrew would be the official language for all purposes, including the courts, after a certain date.
Switzerland fascinates me from this point of view - different languages, different (and hostile) religious beliefs, and surrounded by expansionist neighbours who spoke one of the Swiss languages, yet they have stayed as one nation for centuries (The French revolutionary conquest being the only exception).
The one language that I wish that would make a comeback is Aramaic.
519. Or the spelling of an illiterate child who is yet to discover that words in English are not all spelled the way they sound.
test
I had anticipated that some readers might have a little difficulty with the language, so this is the annotated version from Wikipedia (Scotland) 2039.
PBers never be forgot,
The poet is referring to an obscure group of political geeks
Even Yellow Submar-ine.
One of the above, who gained prominence as POTY in 2009 – like ChristinaD who gained prominence as TOTTY
We’re a’ guid freens here (even Tim),
“a’ guid freens” = “all good friends”. The inclusion of tim is clearly ironic.
for auld lang syne .
“ auld lang syne” – literally “old long since”, but idiomatically “days gone by”. A genetic deficiency (or overindulgence in Scotch) causes those outwith Scotland to pronounce the “s” in syne” as “z”.
CHORUS:
For auld lang syne, PB,
for auld lang syne,
we’ll tak the bookies’ money yet,
“tak” = “take”. This line indicates a level of ambition seldom achieved by many PBers.
for auld lang syne.
And surely ye’ll haud your idea!
“haud” = “hold” – though many PBers showed a distinct difficulty in remembering what they said in a previous post!
and surely I’ll haud mine !
But the Sassenachs are nae bad fowk,
“ Sassenachs” originally a Gaelic term meaning “Southerners”, but limited to just the English once Lowland Scots discovered the pulling power of the kilt. “nae bad” = “not bad” – the ultimate Scottish compliment, especially when used of their womenfolk. “fowk” = “folk” – the poet is using the term to include the English as part of humanity – as opposed to the few remaining statements about the Scots from a poster called JohnR. That he included the Goddesses Marcia and ChristinaD in his diatribes probably explains why the PB head deity removed his post. It is not clear exactly what “post” meant in those days, but removing it sounds extremely painful.
despite auld lang syne.
CHORUS
We a’ hae read the runes a’ wrang,
“a’ hae” = “all have” : “wrang” = “wrong” .
and paid oot shadsy’s fine;
“shadsy” – a minor deity, whose acolytes divined his wishes by examining Marcia and ChristinaD (see above) in as much detail as they would allow.
But we’ll tak the bookies’ money yet,
for auld lang syne.
CHORUS
Christina D, an’ easterross,
are Tories braw an’ fine;
“Tories” – an extinct political grouping. “braw” = “attractive. While this clearly applies to ChristinaD, there is some doubt if it is an appropriate description of easterross.
But Dickson’s crew will see them aff,
“Dickson” – a mythical Scottish character thought to have lifted his kilt to the English army at the Battle of Stirling Bridge, resulting in their defeat and the disappearance of the bridge in subsequent films. “aff” = “off”, and frequently preceded by an explicit sexual expression.
The Union’s deid lang syne.
“Union” – an early (but unworkable) prototype for the current European Federal State : “deid” = used as in “My cat ate the budgie and it’s …”
CHORUS
But there’s a hand, my Tory freen !
“freen” = “friend” : a reference to the actions of the Tories in the Scottish Parliament in acting responsibly (at least some of the time), thus allowing St. Nicola Sturgeon to lead Scotland to Independence.
and gie’s a hand o’ thine !
“ gie’s” = “give us” – see above. The Tories gave and the SNP received.
We’ll sink the ****ing Labour yet,
“****” There is no clear idea of what the poet meant. Readers are free to suggest their own interpretation.
for auld lang syne.
CHORUS
516. I fear that you are right about that which I’ll come onto. The key will be
(a) will enough labour bigwigs want the jobs to take on local councillor mafias.
(b) can anyone sucessfully frame a “Yes” campaign as being an anti government/cuts vote which is what would be needed to win.
I flagged up Manchester and Liverpool as being targets because of the Labour control/early gain. However perhaps that was rubbish? Maybe Leeds and Birmingham as cities that will take much longer to go back to labour are better bets if the local Labour party’s can pull off my point 2.
With regard to the Conservative government view. I don’t know wether cameron is sincere or wether he just felt the need to flater the Heseltine report but there are lots of reasons as you suggest why self interest would take over. Who in their right mind would want the 8 core Cities all having Mr/Mrs/Ms Bigs shouting all the time?
505/10/11. Dialect/language is a distinction that always annoys someone. All I can say is that using the same term to the describe the relationship of Lallans and Gaelic to Standard English is doesn’t seem that helpful. However, if you are discussing Lallans, Gaelic and Japanese, it’s another matter.
515 TSE
In Scotland you are born in Labour.
Education is the midwife to emancipation.
511 You could find variations of “Aa’ll gan yem” in most Germanic languages and they would sound closer to English!
A language is a dialect with (a) an army and (b) a written form. The problem is that local dialects of English have not been written - we have an unusually long history of vernacular writing which has tended to standardise things.
Northumbrian, or Geordie, is not a bastardisation of modern English. They both arise from different dialects, standard English is usually reckoned to have developed from a midlands dialect. Northern dialects developed separately and probably have more Norse in them. In many ways, modern “toned down” dialects are a bastardisation of their original language with modern standard English.
Mutual intelligibility is one test of language differentiation, and broad Scots or Geordie is pretty much unintelligible to a Southerner.
527 - In that case, the first thing Prime Minister Cameron should do is appoint an English Viceroy in Scotland, to teach the Scots the error of their ways
I was always told at College that the difference between a Religion and a Cult was “political power”.
529. If he could find someone with the surname Cumberland that would be an added bonus.
513. “Its still dialect, get over it. Phonetically spelling english words in a regional accent does not create a language.”
The difference between standardised and non-standardised spelling hasn’t got a lot to do with the distinction between ‘languages’ and ‘dialects’ either. The majority of the world’s recognised languages are non-standardised. You were aware of that, I take it?
You also appear to be having serious difficulty with the rather fundamental distinction between “dialect” and “accent”.
oldnat
I’m pleased you feel secure and am happy to say that I feel secure too (well as much as my natural sceptical nature allows me to be).
I have no wish to cause offence to anyone but do not truly feel I have given reason to. Without wanting to sound like a Monty Python Yorkshireman the jokes and comments I’ve heard from factory and construction workers or ex-miners (and at times even laughed at despite being also horrified) make this site, indeed even Guido’s site, look like a vicarage tea party.
But I will try to be more careful in future and not offend those that might be offended.
531 - I’d have thought someone with the surname Thatcher would be much more fun.
You heard it hear first, Sir Mark Thatcher, the Viceroy of Scotland.
531 Actually this chap http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ernst_August_V,_Prince_of_Hanover is entitled to petition for restoration of the title Duke of Cumberland. He’s not descended from the Butcher though.
534 There’s nothing stopping Cameron making him a Duke, either.
536 - I’m probably wrong, but isn’t creating Dukes down solely to the Monarch?
537 I think it’s the same as any other peerage title. I can’t imagine HM decided to offer a peerage to Cathy Ashton or “Gorbals Mick” Martin off her own bat.
Can you claim Duke houses on expenses?
I’ll get my coat.
537 TSE
Excluding Royal Duchies, Last offered to Winston Churchill in the form of Duke of London I believe.
538/540 - Thanks for that.
Lest any of our SNP posters think I was being serious about Viceroys of Scotland, the worst thing for the union is if the Tories started ruling Scotland on a colonial basis.
541 TSE
If you were really serious about avoiding conflict, you would be suggesting James Kelly as People’s Commissar for Nationalities.
525. YS
I think Leeds could go Labour by 2012 as the ward boundaries are so favourably drawn for Labour purposes. Even now the number of Labour councillors is almost equal to the number of Conservatives and LibDems combined.
I suspect Birmingham might be NOC almost permanently as I can’t see Labour ever winning the middle class wards that they did in the Blair era while continuing racial polarisation could see many WWC wards remain Conservative or BNP and many Asian wards LibDem or Respect or whoever a ‘Community Leader’ wants it to be.
All the same I think there will be a big struggle to get people to vote in favour of ‘more politicians, more government and more taxes’ what with the political class being somewhat discredited by their own actions.
Quite shocked that there appear to have been only a couple of mentions today about the events in Iran, as they move, apparently inexorably, towards a greater battle (one of those posts by someone who said they were surprised this was still going on!)
Actually, given the lack of reporting in the west that’s not as surprising but it has seemed part of an attempt to not stick both feet in and cause an anti-western backlash as certain previous world leaders have done….
I think I mentioned earlier this year not to expect a quick revolution but incremental pressure and sporadic outbursts on certain holy days and anniversaries, as usual Sullivan has the best round the clock coverage (the assassination of Moussavi’s nephew being just one of the important moments of recent days).
Karroubi today “The sins that you have committed today cannot be forgiven by God. If you don’t have a belief in God, at least be a human.”
http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/
Seriously, pay attention to Iran.
541 TSE
“ruling Scotland on a colonial basis”
That’s exactly what happened under Thatcher. Why do you think 20% of those who plan to vote Tory for Holyrood think that a Cameron Government “would not be good for Scotland”.
We’ve had two reconstructions of local government in Scotland by the Tories - both based on their current pre-occupations with the restructuring of English LAs.
Prior to devolution, the whole history of Scottish government since WWII was the application of English policies on Scotland at the behest of whichever party was elected by the dominant English majority and appointed the colonial governor as “Secretary of State for Scotland”.
497/504 Mayors
The default result of the referendums would be in favour of mayors.
“We’re not going to enforce a mayoral system anywhere; instead we will legislate to hold a referendum on the change in 12 of our largest cities. Unless they reject the new structure, cities from Bristol and Birmingham to Nottingham and Newcastle will have a mayor. “
http://www.conservatives.com/News/Articles/2009/02/David_Cameron_A_radical_power_shift.aspx
54. Eagles
“the worst thing for the union is if the Tories started ruling Scotland on a colonial basis.”
The best thing for the Union, for those that support it, would be an independence vote.
It would be lost, Labour would win in 2011, the Conservatives would resolve the WLQ and by the time the issue arose again the oil would have run out.
543. I’d had Leeds down as a Labour gain in 2014. I accept that 2012 is a possibility but I was banking on the 2010 locals being on GE day and the higher turn out doing funny things. I’d have thought there would be a number of labour wards where they have hung on against the tories where they would lose on a general turn out when that parliamentry seat is going blue. That said I suspect one or two LD wards might go Red on a GE turnout and possibly one Green. Certainly if they hang onto the 42 they have now then Labour could come back in 2012.
Picking up some earlier themes before hitting the hay:
- I don’t think Cameron ever had an expectation of getting many serious Toynbee-like Guardianista votes, and if he thought he did he was mistaken. But his main objective was to make people who vaguely fellow-travel with the Guardian feel it’s possible to vote Tory without committing a mortal sin. I think he had quite a bit of success with that for a while, but they’re having doubts again. As both the major parties have found, it’s actually quite hard to hold the majority of ‘typical’ Sun and Guardian readers at the
same time.
- I voted for David Herdson in the poll - less predictably on-message than Richard N, amiable though Richard is, and although Yellow S is always readable I’ve not noticed his posating as much as the others. In view of the two-horse race I’ve given YS a tactical vote - the poll seems to allow that (I’ve used the same PC and it has a fixed IP address), perhaps automatically cancelling the earlier one.
Meanwhile, as the Tories reflect on their chances in 2012, Labour picks up a couple of bob this time round:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/dec/22/labour-campaign-war-chest-2-25m
547 another richard
“The best thing for the Union, for those that support it, would be an independence vote.”
Yet all the Unionist politicians oppose it. Either they are all idiots and you are a better political strategist than them, or they are sharper than you. I lean to the latter idea.
549. Did you like the fabulous piece of juxtaposition in the article?
‘”Our job is to ensure that the voice of the people, not just those with the power of privilege, is heard through to polling day.”
The latest large donations to Labour came from Lord Sainsbury, the former science minister, and financiers Nigel Doughty and Sir Ronald Cohen.’
546. Dave B
If those referendums take place, a big if, then a 51% vote of those voting would be enough to stop a Mayoral system.
The default position is the status quo ie no Mayor.
A Conservative government will not be imposing Mayoral systems where it isn’t wanted.
486
Ed West suggests the Dutch Freedom Party as a model for UKIP, adding immigration and opposition to radical Islam to their established EU position.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/edwest/100018151/lord-pearson-elected-ukip-leader-this-will-be-interesting/
“…on a whole range of issues the three major parties are in consensus, and wildly out of touch with public opinion, none more so than on the subject of immigration and the resulting problem of Islamisation. Being concerned about this doesn’t make you a Nazi or a racist – that only Nazis and racists vigorously campaign against a revolutionary change in our way of life is due to the cowardice of our political culture and the undemocratic nature of our system “
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/edwest/100014272/forget-nick-griffin-on-question-time-the-bnp-wont-last/
552
I think it’s normal for referendums to need a level of turnout to be decisive. I think that makes change more likely than not.
oldnat
Perhaps the Scottish unionists are sharper than me but from what I’ve read on this site from Stuart Dickson they are instead a bunch of incompetants.
Still perhaps you are right and the Scottish Labour and Scttish LibDem parties know what they are doing. They are after all likely to be in control at Holyrood for the twenty years after 2011.
Personally I believe the Scottish people have the right to a vote on Independence.
550. Oldnat, I lean more towards the “unionist politicians are idiots” theory. Specifically, I can’t see why the Liberal Democrats are so scared of a multi-option referendum, given that their own preferred option would be very likely to win. Instead we get stuck with the status quo they claim not to want due to their own timidity/stubbornness.
555 another richard
Glad to hear that you are liberal enough to want “the mentally disadvantaged” to make decisions for themselves. However, your description of them is clearly appropriate since they seem to reject your view of the world.
TNS poll in November :
Constituency votes - SNP 40% : Lab 32% : Con 13% : LD 11%
List votes - SNP 37% : Lab 29% : Con 12% : LD 12%
However, you know better - and you don’t even require evidence for your assertions!
548. YS
I think its possible that the Conservatives make gains from the LibDems in Leeds in 2010. Horsforth, Meanwood (if Leeds NE goes blue), Otley and maybe Weetwood (if Leeds NW goes blue which is though unlikely) but Conservatives gains from Labour will be hard, Temple Newsom is possible (if it is a Labour councillor up for reelection and not a Conservative), Garforth possibly but unlikley, Ardsley if it becomes a ‘Balls Out’ election, Pudsey ward is surely safe baring a Labour disaster and Crossgates is in safe Labour Leeds East.
The problem that the Conservatives have in Leeds is that their votes are concentrated into safe wards. With the exception of Temple Newson ward the Conservative 2008 majorities ranged from 1192 in Roundhay to an incredible 4206 in Harewood. Vital to have those votes at a general election but not much use when it comes to Leeds council.
557 James Kelly
Part of me agrees with you. but I suspect that they are scared stiff of a referendum where the actual issues would be discussed. In any case, I would always give far more credibility to the political judgement of Annabel Goldie as opposed to another richard.
oldnat
Why do you aassume I would be a Conservative in Scotland?
I believe I would probably vote SNP at least as often or possibly LibDem if that was the most effective anti-Labour tactic.
As I said earlier I think separation would be in the interests of both Scotland and England.
Too bad the Scottish voters haven’t the will for it or that English voters will never get the chance to do the job for them.
So instead you’ll get a British Conservative government and a year later a Scottish Labour government to go with it.
And with that goodnight.
561 another richard
I assumed nothing about how you would vote if you lived in Scotland.
Clearly, however, you would be “mentally disadvantaged” if you did. It was you who associated that with voting Tory!
I have far nore respect for the Scots Tories.
Hey, S&S, still got your ears on? And are you a member of Big Boy’s cabinet?
Was just looking up DAVID TAYLOR in The Almanac of British Politics 8th ed (by the way, Waller & Criddle say that DT wasn’t a rebel until after his first term) where I ran into the following:
“Curiously he was frequently to be found in both lobbies in order to register a de facto abstention.”
Can NPMP and other pbers familiar with the currious folkways of Thorney Island confirm this from personal experiece and/or observation?
519. http://www.amazon.co.uk/Adventure-English-Biography-Language/dp/0340829915
Read Melvyn Bragg’s history of the language which is my source. Show him your bollox.
Hadrian’s Wall, well yes. We all know that, but I think you get my meaning. Strong walls make good neighbours etc.
They MUST hold a by election within three months under the speakers Convention
What fun
http://bastardoldholborn.blogspot.com/2009/12/speakers-convention.html
566. Like the Tories upheld that convention at Cardiff NW in 1983?
NOT!
“As David Herdson and Gwynfa have pointed out in 18 months time Labour will be back in charge in Scotland, with support from those Scottish LibDems you all despise so much.”
Hmm, I think not. Since 2007 the SNP haven’t really looked under much threat. If you’ve ever heard Iain Gray talk then you’ll understand why that’s unlikely to change any time soon.