How much will you be down on “Money Burning Day”?
December 29th, 2009
Are your end year bets as bad as mine?
December 31st is generally an important day for political punters because so many bets are linked to the end of the year. And for me, New Year’s Eve 2009 looks set to be one of the worst ever. In fact I don’t have a winner but I have a lot of losers.
It’s generally quite instructive to look through your losing bets to pick up ideas that might contain losses in the future.
So this thread header is both instructive to me and a bit painful. For here are my December 31st losers :-
“Will Baroness Scotland remain in her position until the end of 2009?” - a reasonably-sized bet staked on September 22nd when things looked a bit doubtful. She’s still there.
“Will Alistair Darling cease to be Chancellor in 2009?”. Two chunky bets staked on April 24th and June 7th at 9/2 and 3/1. That looked like a winner until the Chancellor refused to give up his job to Ed Balls in the June re-shuffle because Brown was in such a weak position. Balls had even gone as far as saying farewell to what he thought was going to be his old department. Darling is still there.
“Ed Balls to be Chancellor on 31/12/09″. A nice sized bet staked at 16/1 on January 5th 2009. Ed didn’t make it.
“Gordon Brown To Leave PM Office in 2009.” A big bet placed in May 30th at 5/2. Brown is still there.
“Peter Mandelson (200/1); Jacqui Smith (200/1); Alistair Darling (50/1); Jack Straw (40/1); Harriet Harman (25/1) to be PM on 31/12/09″ mostly modest bets staked in January 2009. None of them made it.
“David Blunkett (100/1), John Reid (100/1) and John Denham (33/1) to be home secretary on 31/12/09. Smallish bets staked in January 2009. None of them made it.
Looking back at them they all seemed reasonable punts at the time and I don’t regret any of them. And lest you feel sorry for me the total losses represented above were made up many times over by my 9/4 on Jacqui Smith going in 2009, 6/1 on Fred Goodwin paying part of his pension back in 2009 and the 5/1 that Tony McNulty would be ordered to pay part of his housing expenses back in 2009.
And there was, of course, in November the 50/1 that Cathy Ashton would get the EU foreign affairs job (Thank you MORUS for the great tip)
Mike Smithson
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Primus?
Morus stole my first
1. Morus
You are just here to collect your commission.
Where is the SNP caucus?
What are these
So wither’d and so wild in their attire,
That look not like the inhabitants o’ the earth,
And yet are on ‘t?
Has no one told them the night bus has left?
Mike - a great demonstration from you of what is meant by value betting. Many of the punts to which you refer were placed at very long odds and it’s in the nature of things that only a few will deliver, but when they do it’s big time.
It will be interesting to see which cracking bets you and others spot during 2010, since for sure there will again be some great opportunities and I for one will be looking for something rather more compelling than Skybet’s even money offer against Prince William becoming engaged to Kate Middleton during the coming year.
Very O/T- from previous 38
14, MC - neither 9/11 nor London ‘05 will not be “old news” as long as Islamic extremists keep on probing and penetrating airport security.
BTW, personally think that the fact the attack was made on Amsterdam-Detroit flight could be very significant. After all, this is NOT a route that spings to mind when you consider air travel; my guess is that it has it’s origin in the many Dutch American who invest Western Michigan. Of course Schipol has a (so I hear) good security reputation. BUT perhaps the boyos from Al Quida found a loophole? And that’s why they picked this particular route?
KLM teamed up with Northwest Airlines years and years ago. Think had something to do with their open sky agreement. Not sure if this caused Dutch investment in Western Michigan (also area with highest Dutch ancestry in US). Then, of course, they all teamed up with Delta as part of SkyTeam. I presume this is why the flight is called a Northwest flight despite a Delta plane-code sharing.
Unlucky mate, my bets haven’t been great either, although i did back Van Rompuy @ 16/1, producing a nice £160.
But then i through that away on stupid Australian horse race in the dead of night when i was back from the pub and squiffy.
Yee Gods will i ever learn.
However, i’m now looking forward to any possible change of Labour leadership, and i’ve got 4 runners, and if any of those come in, the profits will be very nice indeed. But its all risk money anyway, and it keeps me glued to this excellent site for any possible insights. So even if the bets lose, i will still have had a wonderful learning experience.
Anyway, how about old Gordo. Will stick it out, or will he walk before the big day thus avoiding a possible humiliation.
Me, to be honest guys, i simply have no idea. Gordon Brown has become, or maybe he always was, unreadable.
We’ll see.
I’ve already made my confessions - an ok year, but nothing great. The big thing about 2009 was how little I wagered compared to the previous three years.
Without anywhere near as much detail to hand as Mike, I did fairly well on the byelections in Glasgow NE and Norwich North, but without making much profit on stingy odds.
The European results I did better than I deserved - a couple of hundred profit, inc £100 from Sian Berry of the Green Party betting against the Greens and Labour.
Speaker election I made a fraction (prob £30 max), but from what I thought were early covering bets on Bercow - I would have been very very well off had George Young snatched it. I lost a little betting on the number of rounds plus a side bet with PfP.
US elections - I got Virginia right, but lost twice as much on Corzine holding on in New Jersey (I laid Christie). I had been forced to place the bet at great odds in August, before I came to the US, when Christie had a massive lead. If Corzine had won, I’d have done very well indeed, and he narrowed in the polls to level, but then lost by five.
I still have open bets on Jack Straw as next PM at about 20-1 (the Cabinet choice), and James Cleverley and Oona King as next Mayor of London (at 50-1 and 100-1 respectively), which I’ll leverage if either are announced as candidates.
Probably a profit of no more than £200 on the year (and that might be overlooking some other silly bets that will have eaten into that figure). Still gutted I couldn’t place a bet from here, though I had a small amount of money on both Van Rompuy and Balkenende which cancelled out marginally in my favour)
Mike - speaking of New Year’s bets, I suggested a few weeks ago, that PBers might wish to nominate one single bet which they most favour from the huge array of political markets currently available, whether this be a long shot or an odds-on favourite. For me, the attraction would be that it would bring to the fore specialist and/or local knowledge.
I appreciate that this would not be of interest to the large majority of PBers who do not bet and therefore perhaps it could be run on PB2 under your auspices.
Just heard Akmal Shaikh executed. Wonder if the Chinese took umbrage that Gordon and Millipede blamed them for the Copenhagen fiasco?
Similar things have happened in Singapore and Malaysia…
9 re execution
Another non-triumph for our dynamic Foreign Secretary.
7 Morus - funnily enough based on the MoS’s “Gang of Five” story, I backed Jack the Hat to become the next Labour Leader just this weekend at 25/1. I now have 4 or 5 bets in this market, but am a mere beginner compared with stjohn who at the last count had covered around 12 “candidates”.
Re the execution.
We have very little influence these days.
Its a bit like when you have a Lib Dem Mp.
They say nice things but can get nothing done.
As useful as a chocalate teapot.
12.
It’s usually counter-productive to bleat to much. No self-respecting government can be seen to bow to internal or external pressure.
Same happened here with Ruth Ellis in 1955. If everyone had ignored her, she might well have been reprieved…
FPT, Morus - I think you misunderstood the point I was making about Tory posters getting away with murder in a way that non-Tories do not. I was not talking about moderation, but about the way in which you can guarantee that a non-Tory poster who makes an an absurd or unsubstantiated claim (or an outright smear) will get ripped to shreds by a pack of twenty posters within seconds. Whereas an equivalent Tory poster will not, and will in that sense get away with murder. That’s what I meant when I said the strength in numbers makes that inevitable.
So China haven’t executed a European citizen for fifty years - and they decide to start with a mentally ill man who wanted to usher in a new era of world peace by singing a song about rabbits. If ever there was an argument against capital punishment, there it is in a nutshell.
Well, we constantly lecture the Chinese/Russians/French, etc on how we can’t deport/extradite people because of the separation of powers between the legislative and judicial branches. So we cannot be surprised when we get paid with the same coin.
16. The French? Really? If so, we could do with lecturing the French a bit less and the Americans (for example) a bit more.
8 PfP. My one bet would be that Dave gets a 100+ majority in 2010.
Actually, I’m quite impressed by Brown and Miliband’s strong statements immediately after Akmal Shaikh’s execution - this is certainly not the moment to be diplomatic.
My biggest betting disappointment of the year was what would have been a spectacularly profitable 25/1 winner had Balls succeeded Darling as Chancellor, which bet I suggested here, and had seemed a near certainty until the incumbent dug his heels in and refused to be moved.
Overall I did OK during 2009, but i made a mere fraction of the £10K profit I generated during the previous year, which related principally to spread bets on POTUS (thank you Spreadfair), aided by some useful footy spread betting.
For 2010, I have already placed a considerable number of bets (as disclosed in the “super six” constituency betting lists) but a number of these are combination bets, where I will neither lose nor win a great deal. Currently I have no open GE seat spread bets, which as usual is likely to be where the big money will be won and lost. It’s stating the obvious I know, but those with the cojones may profit from taking positions based on the very early results on GE night.
My hopes for 2010? That we shall hear more from two of PB’s greatest punters, Caveman and Jan from Norway, as well as updated projections from Robert Smithson’s VIPA and, on the other side of the coin, Rod Crosby’s Titanic predictions. One or other of these two looks set to be proved very right and the other very wrong!
I will also be keeping a close watch on where URW’s money is going.
19-Oh and the Chinese care???
Like they did in Copenhagen.
We are like an irritating fly to the Chinese who they can swat away whenever they please.
Gordon Brown could make out we were going to war with the Chinese and they would just laugh
21. In a sense I don’t care whether the Chinese care. We shouldn’t endlessly repeat Tony Blair’s mistake of genuflecting to Power, right or wrong.
18 Patrick - there’s brave! Probably falls under the “gut feel” category, as opposed to being “specialist” or “local knowledge”. A classic case of an opportunity to win or lose big on a spread bet, compared with the modest odds available either way on a corresponding fixed odds bet.
14 Tory posters (James Kelly)
There are times, often around PMQs, when one wonders if one or two alighted here in order to establish for the benefit of any passing journalists, that Cameron KO’d Brown, regardless of what actually happened in any particular week.
Similarly, despite the long list of economic crimes for which Gordon Brown might reasonably be indicted, starting with PFI, some posters repeatedly hammer him for the global financial meltdown which really did start in America (though not necessarily with subprime mortgages). Again, is the press the real target here?
though luck Mike! I lost about 4k on Corzine and about 4k on Brown (if he does lead Labour into the GE). I hope however to partially regain those losses on my [now] 3k @ 7-3 on Obama reaching an Approval rating of 50 on the RCP average. I’d then be 1k in the red, which is easily neutralised by my winnings on the Iranian and German elections, the Irish ref., Labour’victory in the last by-e, and other good moves on intrade — such as laying Caroline Kennedy and the weird GDP contract (my biggest winning of 2010). And the Oscars (thx again Kate).
4 Prince William (PfP)
It is often worth looking at the new year novelty markets if one has the stamina. Most are rubbish but there are sometimes a couple of gems.
More generally, we should always look at markets offered by only one bookmaker: ricks are more likely when they are not guided by their peers. Of course, it means we cannot lay off but you cannot have everything.
obama now at 49.9 on the RCP average
16-The French used to ask us to deport/extradite Algerian terror suspects. We were then already living in Londonistan and under the illusion that by providing sanctuary to Islamic terrorists we would somehow be immune from them as stated from some passage in the Koran. Turned out to be a load of boolox in any case….
my biggest shock of 2009 was Betfair charging me a *premium* charge. I found a solution however.
- “… John Reid (100/1)… to be home secretary”
Madness. Utter, utter madness. And I told you so at the time, and on several other occasions. As did other Scottish PBers.
John Reid announced waaaaaay back in September 2007 that he would not be standing at the next GE, and he effectively retired from the Commons at that point, becoming an MP in name only. Then factor in the Reid-Brown enmity. The Celtic job. Etc etc. The bookies were having a larf by even listing his name.
Your Alistair Darling at 50/1 to be PM was almost as wacky. That might have been value at 200/1.
But it is your money.
James Kelly - Ah, I get you. Yes, point taken.
Yet again disappointed in David Miliband as Foreign Sec - sending Ivan Lewis is a mystery to me. Having offended the Indian PM, induced expletive-ridden rants down the telephone from the Russian FM, and had no impact on either the Iranians or the Chinese, one wonders if any MP would be less effective at the FCO. I would dearly love to see Lord Mandelson’s talents employed in the same role, because I actually think he’d be good at it.
This is precisely the sort of moment that the EU should use to its advantage - carrying significantly more weight with the Chinese than I suspect Britain does on its own, I’d like to see a renewal of the Civus Romanus Sum - that the EU does not accept the legitimacy of the death penalty, and will not tolerate it being carried out on its citizens. It’s a cause most Europeans, even those skeptical of the EU, support, and would do the job of elevating EU-level foreign policy to the level it seeks, as well as encouraging a sense of European citizenship. Regardless of where you stand on the EU, taking a firm continental stand on the death penalty would be a useful way of announcing that it had arrived on the diplomatic scene, and is one area where it would not be weighted either towards America or China.
2009 has been the toughest ever year for me in terms of ‘getting on’.
At one time I had more than twenty active accounts and now only two.
The loss of Spreadfair has been by far the most hurtful as they were never going to ban/restrict me- for obvious reasons !
Here is a true story that took place last week and reflects poorly on both parties, myself included.
I was showing off my powers to a guest. I asked a well known internet firm for £300-£60 on a political bet.The bet was okish but no more. “You are only allowed £5-£1 on this bet.” The guest was well impressed.
Next I asked for £240-£80 on a different Band in the same market. ” You can have £1.67p, sir ” The bet was EV neutral.
Finally I asked for £200-100 and got offered £2.50p which I took for a laugh, just to confuse the robot.The bet was awful.
This largish internet firm cut ALL THREE PRICES !
So be careful out there.
The only two bets of any size and of note are still running. One is LAB to outpoll LD at 2-5 and the other is SNP Seats 6-10 at 7-1 (missed the 9-1) and SNP Seats 11-15 at 9-4….hat-tips to Richard Nabavi and Twin Tower.
8. PfP - “… PBers might wish to nominate one single bet which they most favour from the huge array of political markets currently available, whether this be a long shot or an odds-on favourite. For me, the attraction would be that it would bring to the fore specialist and/or local knowledge.
I appreciate that this would not be of interest to the large majority of PBers who do not bet and therefore perhaps it could be run on PB2 under your auspices.”
Wonderful suggestion, but NOT ON PB2!! This is what PB should be all about. Keep the betting posts on the main site!
I know that odds-on betting is not you guys’ cup of tea, but for the record, these two are money in the bank:
Con at 1/4 in Dumfries & Galloway (Shadsy badly mispriced this market, initially having the SNP at a daft 100/1; the Russell Brown price of 5/2 is way too short; Peter Duncan was a bitter loss for the Tories to bear in 2005, with Mundell being an extraordinarily poor substitute; regret at kicking that nice chap Duncan out last time + strong SNP groundwar taking many Lab votes = comfortable Con Maj).
Lab at 1/20 in Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath with PP (even if Brown is not the candidate, Lab are not gonna lose this one; even crap odds of 1/20 is a heck of a lot better than you’ll get from a Building Society). Note: I cannot see this market on the PP website at present.
this is pathetic URW — they shouldn’t be able to do that! Labroke clearly specifies the amount that one can bet on a particular market; i like that. I enjoy too much the liberties provided by exchanges — such as betfair and intrade. I hope for 2010 that the US will allow on-line gambling; there would be more liquidity on intrade. And i hope that a worthy betfair competitor will show his nose; betfair is charging way too much now…
8/33. Sort of agree with Peter from Putney and disagree with you,Stuart.
Every forum has its big givers and its big takers. Ideally, every forum should have big takers who are also givers.
There is a huge debate to have around the topic of “Secrecy or Open Forum.” I had it on Betfair HorseRacing in 2002 and the narrow verdict was for ‘Open Forum’.
After a month, one of the doyens of the forum said “That’s enough ! I’m outta here !” And so my own small forum was born.
Whenever someone puts a tip on here that gets the thumbs-up, the price is gone in a flash. Often the beneficiaries never,ever post.
PB2 is a great subsiduary although fairly user unfriendly. Nonetheless some of the great posts of 2009(Meurig and Easterross) have been on the little channel that nobody reads.
Thanks Stu — I like sometimes to go all-in on a dead-on certainty; 5% is a decent return when ur money is frozen for about a week or so. btw Your betting posts are always greatly appreciated!
Labour have lost 4 by-elections during this Parliament: 2 to the Tories and 1 each to the Lib Dems and the SNP.
According to current pricing, they are likely to regain 2 of them:
Dunfermline & West Fife (lost Feb 2006 on a 16.2% swing; LD Maj = 1,800) Lab are Fav to Re-gain (EVS with PP and WH; LD at 11/10 with Lad)
Crewe & Nantwich (lost May 2008 on a 17.6% swing; Con Maj = 7,860) - NO MARKET YET
Glasgow East (lost July 2008 on a 22.5% swing; SNP Maj = 365) Lab are Fav to Re-gain (1/2 with VC; SNP at 13/8 with Lad, PP and WH))
Norwich North (lost July 2009 on a 16.5% swing; Con Maj = 7,348) Con are Fav to Hold (4/11 with PP; Lab at 9/4 with Lad)
*** BETTING EXPERIMENT ***
Not everyone will like this very strong tip and JackW/tim will hate it.
Take 7-2 with Victor Chandler LIB DEM Seats 40-49 inclusive.
The ‘experiment’ is to see whether the price is still there in 24 hours.
Bookies’ best prices - Next UK General Election - Total Lib Dem Seats
50-59 seats 11/4 (BetFred)
40-49 seats 7/2 (VC)
60-69 seats 9/2 (BetFred)
70-79 seats 8/1 (Lad)
30-39 seats 10/1 (Lad)
80-89 seats 18/1 (VC)
100+ seats 20/1 (BetFred)
20-29 seats 22/1 (VC)
90-99 seats 25/1 (Lad)
10-19 seats 33/1
0-9 seats 200/1
23 Pfp. No I have an election model! Do you have an email address or some way to contact you directly?
Thanks,Stuart Dickson. That is a Book of 109% including Loony Toons.
Also, you should always be looking at Bet365. I think they improve those figures.
The layout of political bets on ‘365′ is absolutely superb; neat and compact, you can see the prices for the Big3 on one page.
Here’s a little tip.
On the Leader Exit dates market on Betfair, Gordon Brown is 1.9|1.92 for April-June 2010, 5.2|6.2 for July-Sep 2010, and 10|15 for Oct-Dec 2010.
Let’s assume he resigns the leadership after the election - will he leave it immediately (with Harman as Acting Leader, or will he stay in post to allow his successor to be elected at the Labour Party Conference in September (knowing he wouldn’t have to spend much time in Parliament over the recess). Given that the Labour Party will be broke, but that Gordon doesn’t like HArman and won’t want to give her the benefit of perceived incumbancy, might he not stay as titular leader until Sept/Oct Conference?
42. Thanks URW
Bet365, and other bookies with a very limited range of political bets, usually get ignored on here. Which is a bit daft.
Ladbrokes, Hills and Paddy Power have a great range of markets, but are often beaten on price elsewhere!
Incidentally there’s 14.0 on Betfair for Harriet Harman to be the next Labour Leader, and there’s £73 available - as a trading bet, I can’t fault that.
I’d place her at between 8.0 and 11.0, allowing for her advantage in the electoral college, and the real weakness of D Miliband’s candidacy.
This story looks a bit sinister for the English NHS:
‘Donations to hospital charities could become part of NHS budget’
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/health/article6969940.ece
Ministers ‘to take control’ of hospital charity cash
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6969955.ece
Ministers could swipe £2billion in NHS assets as they move to ‘nationalise’ charity donations
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1239080/Ministers-swipe-2billion-NHS-assets-nationalise-charity-donations.html#ixzz0b3gNwiKQ
That’s a very good market,Morus.117% with some deadish wood. I’ve had a nibble at Hattie !
I don’t know if this has been remarked on yet here at PB?
DUP’s Iris Robinson to withdraw from public life for health reasons
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2009/1229/1224261353954.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/northernireland/6901553/DUPs-Iris-Robinson-quits-politics.html
31-It’s a cause most Europeans, even those skeptical of the EU, support, and would do the job of elevating EU-level foreign policy to the level it seeks, as well as encouraging a sense of European citizenship.
Most Europeans may support it, but all polls seem to indicate Britons are in favour of the death penalty. Actually, the Spanish led a EU effort to abolish the death penalty world wide in 2008 I think. Miss it?
But I agree somewhere. Where was the EU foreign minister?
‘Why there is precedent in Cameron’s wooing of Clegg’s reluctant LibDems’
http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/politics/why-there-is-precedent-in-cameron-s-wooing-of-clegg-s-reluctant-libdems-1.994909
50 Dave is love bombing the LibDems because an increase in their vote eats predominantly into Labour. Dave needs the LibDEms to do well - so Labour flop at the GE and he gets his majority.
Peter2′ - I don’t know if the polling showing Britons supporting the Death Penalty is still current (I’ve not seen a recent poll, but am happy to concede the point if you can find one), but I’m fairly sure that a majority of Brits supporting the Death Penalty would also overwhelmingly oppose British citizens being executed by *foreign* governments (including the US). We might trust our own justice system with it, but I doubt many Brits would trust the Chinese government with it.
On the issue of Baroness Ashton and where she was - technically, she isn’t EU High Rep until New Year’s Day. Lisbon came into force on Dec 1st, but Ashton and Van Rompuy officially start on the 1st Jan in their new roles.
50-Haha, didn’t Gordon in his halcyon 2007 days appeal to the Tories? Tea with Maggie, Tory defector MP? Weren’t there others waiting in the wings?
Amazingly it was taken almost seriously. Till the non-election…
47 - URW: as a real long-shot, Parmjit Dhanda is 150.0 and there’s £12 available.
Given he appeared in the Speaker’s contest, I still think there’s a slim chance he could avoid defeat in Gloucester (13-points ahead on notional result, Lib Dems are 13% and might vote tactically against a Tory banker who is challenging?), and an articulate and likeable ethnic minority leader could be just the fillip the Labour Party needs after an election defeat.
Long shot admittedly, but if he holds his seat and throws his hat into the ring, that price would quickly crash to about 20/1.
52-There was one in the Economist a year or so ago, has been linked here in the past.
Van Rompuy may not be in place till January 1, but he has been busy. Sawing hob nobbing with the Spanish PM yesterday. Where was the Baroness?
Just before I turn in (it’s 2.25 am here), I thought I’d point out that the BBC has referred to the British man executed in China as “an EU national”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/8433285.stm
“Mr Shaikh is the first EU national to be executed in China in more than 50 years.”
Rather interesting phraseology from Auntie, eh?
56-Were there any EU nationals 50 years ago?
52 Morus
I think the death penalty is utterly barbaric, but my gut instinct is that it is still very popular, especially for murder and child abuse cases. It is probably reasonably popular for drug dealers too.
I don’t think that it would matter much whether the sentencing is here or abroad. Even due process is often seen as “quaint” (in the words of Alberto Gonzales) - remember the polling, hand in hand with the Sun campaign, which showed big majorities in favour of 42-day detention without trial for terror suspects?
This makes what Harman said about the court of public opinion the most stupid and unforgivable strategic political blunder. A degree of populism is good and keeps politicians honest - too much, though, and you end up with silly results like Sheriff Arpaio… I like the ‘elected police commissioners but not sheriffs’ model the Tories are proposing - it seems to provide a nice balance between the two.
Just released a new poster at comment #2, so all comment numbers will be out by one.
A hearty welcome to GlesgaNat!
58 - Indeed! One could argue there isn’t such thing even now…there are nationals of EU member states, but not EU nationals (maybe EU citizens at a stretch).
I thought you would go bananas at BBC europhile-pinko bias, and instead you choose anachronism-pedantry to pick on the subeditor!!
Really do need some sleep now. Nite all.
Morus. Good post and I agree that it would be a progressive and cohesive move for the EU to refuse to accept the death penalty as legitimate wherever it takes place.
Having said that can you see an incoming Tory government supporting such a move when I suspect a majority of their members would like to see its reintroduction here?
61-Pinko bias is a given.
But guess they should check their facts.
62-Good post and I agree that it would be a progressive and cohesive move for the EU to refuse to accept the death penalty as legitimate wherever it takes place
And how will they progress from mere words to action? Trade sanctions against those states that practice the death penalty? Japan? China? USA? Saudi?
For this reason I expect the EU to do so. Costs nothing, makes everyone feel smug and morally superior. And accomplishes nothing.
58. DC made the same point yesterday though he thought it just a reflection on the leftward drift of the BBC! It would be interesting to know though who suggested to them that they internationalize the execution in order to put more pressure on the Chinese.
62 - Roger: difficult for the Tories. One of those where they would perhaps find it easy to support the EU line (’foreign countries shouldn’t execute Britons’) and display some token europhilia to offset the more strident euroscepticism.
Peter2′ at 63 is right, though I was making a more modest suggestion. I’m not suggesting the EU focus on a worldwide ban on Capital Punishment, just that it should make clear that ITS ‘citizens’ are not to be executed, or there will be consequences.
Trade sanctions to protect its own would probably fly. 500 million first world consumers carry weight - and foreign governments aren’t so enamoured of executing Europeans that they would fight too hard. Britain didn’t have that leverage over the Chinese, but the EU would.
Regardless of where you stand on Europe (and I oscillate - now Lisbon has passed, and I opposed it, I feel we might as well be more enthusiastic about the inevitable and embrace the EU), a new Civis Romanus Sum would be a powerful diplomatic statement, and would foster the seed of a European Citizen Identity, which will be crucial to the EU’s further integration. Being able to isolate benefits or specific protections based on EU citizenship cannot be underestimated, which is why it would be worth doing and backing up with the big guns (targetted trade sanctions etc).
Just a whimsical thought though…
G’nite.
I’m on the Baroness Scotland bet, and I hold a bet on Harriet Harman to be Prime Minister on Friday. I’m also going to lose out unless interest rates go up smartly in the next three days. Hey ho.
As a general rule, I prefer bets where interpersonal relations aren’t the main consideration. So I bet for fun only on things like “next Home Secretary”. I most like betting on constituencies and seat spreads and the like. I would not advise anyone to bet on the spreads until they had at least contemplated a few individual constituency markets, so they can see the reality of what they are predicting.
Laying the next Labour leader and selling on SPIN has proved much more profitable than trying to work out which donkey is going to cross the finishing line first, though there have been times when the price for the whole field has been very profitable. For example, right now Ed Miliband is everyone’s darling, but I doubt he will stand (how would he campaign against his brother?). The Alan Johnson bubble has inflated and burst, while David Miliband seems to be slowly deflating again. I don’t know who will get it (I do not rule out Ed Balls, who at least has energy), but selling stocks in each current media favourite has to be a good idea - or, if you prefer, the stjohn strategy of buying the out-of-favour candidates. It took me a while to cotton onto this, so I hold a betting slip for Hazel Blears to be next Labour leader at 80/1 - if she hadn’t ruined her career, I fancy that would look a great bet now, but as I said before, hey ho. I wish I had put money on Alistair Darling at 100/1, when I thought about doing so. He could yet get the gig, if he wanted it. I don’t think he does.
My worst bet of the year? Betting on very low turnout in Glasgow NE. A quite ridiculous bet.
I’ll have a think about a best tip for the year ahead.
65-It is of course feasible to conduct consumer boycotts. Not sure how successful these have been in the past though.
Not the right person to ask as I had no issue with South African wine, Chilean apples, or West Bank settlement humus.
62. Roger, the Conservatives were in power for 18 years during which time there were, IIRC, various free votes on the reintroduction of the death penalty and every one was voted down.
Politicians are more aware of the intricacies of individual cases, in a way that activists or the man in the pub aren’t; they get them in their constituency work.
Even if an MP is in principle in favour of the death penalty, they know that its practical application is difficult and that there’ll be a furore every time a controversial case comes near execution in a way that full-life tariffs won’t (and a full-life tariff is in essence a living death sentance anyway). That reduces the number who’ll vote for a reintroduction significantly.
Bet for 2010. The Lib Dems to hold Withington. Put your house on it.
66. Darling has the small matter of holding onto his constituency first. Our Scottish representatives here tell us that that’s more likely than it really should be but even if he gets back with a majority of say 3000 (it’s currently 7242), that’s got to give some pause for thought?
70-Not sure if he’s home and dry. His high profile will affect the result, either way.
David. I was talking about their membership and though I know their MP’s wont vote to bring it back they’d be lukewarm about joining Europe in a move against it.
67. Consumer boycotts are always completely ineffective in the main aim. They can, however, have a political impact in the country/ies doing the boycotting.
The only boycott I can think of that was successful was the sporting one of South Africa - and that was a highly unusual situation of a boycott of a democratic country where the thing being boycotted was dear to many in the electorate. Yes, I know there was only a partial franchise but the point is that there were genuine elections and the electors could pressure the government. Usually, countries being boycotted are dictatorships and no such pressure applies. And there were other factors contributing to the end of apartheid as well.
70 - I absolutely agree and have bet on him losing his seat. But 100/1… he’s got to be much better value than that, as the markets now suggest. Who else in the Labour party has the authority and firmness of purpose?
I can’t really see any justification for the EU arguing that a national of an EU State should never be executed by a foregin country, regardless of what that person has done.
If you’re in a foreign country, you have to respect its laws.
72 Entirely correct.
72. Fair question then. I don’t honestly know how a Tory minister would vote in such a situation. It might be a useful time to not play ball for long enough get some marginal quid pro quo on something else. Either way, the vote would be of little practical significance.
You’re certainly right that most Tory members would favour the reintroduction of capital punishment. All the polls I’ve seen indicate that a majority of the country would - though it’s a while since I’ve seen one. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if a majority of Labour voters were in favour as well. But not Labour activists.
69 - Which house have you put on it, please, Roger? Just so we can assess the strength of the bet, you understand.
69 LibDem hearts must be sinking in Withington…
“Bad news - Roger has tipped us a cert.”
“Awwww…..bugger…..”
75 - Because it’s about political and moral justification, rather than legality.
The EU recognises the sovereignty of countries and their governments and legal systems *to a point*. Anything wildly outside of the realm of justice (either formal or substantive) I don’t believe the EU is compelled to acknowledge as legitimate, even if they continue to recognise the government.
If torture, or punishment on the rack, were a standard part of legal systems in a given country, the stated EU position shouldn’t be to shrug and say “when in Riyadh…”. The EU, by its very nature as a supra-national organisation, acknowledges that there are legal duties and moral obligations that sit above national soverignty - thus the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, or the ECHR.
As a political act, albeit one without legal recourse, I think the EU would have every right to say that it no longer considered the Death Penalty to be a legitimate tool of a justice system, and that it would punish any use of that tool against its citizens, even if within the law of the operative jurisdiction. I assume it would do the same for torture at present, so don’t see why extending the case is inappropriate.
On topic, 2009 has been a very quiet year. I don’t have any bets expiring on New Year’s Eve as they’re mostly conerning the election or next office holders.
The best bets I made were during Labour’s June wobble, when I got 3/1 for Cameron as Next PM and even better for Osborne as Next Chancellor (though that was for a minimal stake). The worst bets were at the beginning of the F1 season when I laid Button to win the first two races (new car? Honda weren’t hot last year and even Brawn won’t get it to win first up. Alright, they won’t do it twice. Sod.). The most disappointing was Mandelson not getting the EUHRFA job when i had him at 25/1 - all the more so for what we’ve found out since.
As for Mike’s bets, I can’t see a bad one that he made where the odds were less than three figures. Some could probably have been laid off at far smaller odds than those at which they were placed and all looked value at the odds taken, as in several cases, events later proved.
81, my sympathies on the F1 misfortune. That was pretty unlucky.
57. Morus December 29th, 2009 at 7:25 am: BBC reporting first EU citizen to be executed….
Brown/Milliband were obviously wasting their time lobbying The Chinese for the execution to be stopped. What was needed was a real big-hitter to make the case. That towering EU colossus, Cathy Ashton, perhaps.
78. As a Krypton Factor winner I thought you’d just know!
You’d need at least a Barmitzvah and a wedding to get more cards in a year than you do from John Leech!
Charles Clarke’s Norwich South seat under pressure from Greens. From today’s Eastern Daily Press.
Former home secretary Charles Clarke is an early online New Year election target as the Greens take a leaf out of Barack Obama’s campaign playbook and launch an internet video setting out why they can win his Norwich South seat.
Mr Clarke, who won in 2005 with a 3,653 majority over the Lib Dems, has a fight on his hands to hold on to his seat in what is widely seen as a four-way fight between Labour, Lib Dems, Conservatives and Greens.
Norwich South is second in the Green’s list of target seats, where the party believes it has a realistic chance of winning.
http://www.edp24.co.uk/content/edp24/news/story.aspx?brand=EDPOnline&category=News&tBrand=EDPOnline&tCategory=xDefault&itemid=NOED28%20Dec%202009%2018:15:18:770
But, the death penalty isn’t wildly outside the realms of justice. It was implemented in this country, well within living memory, and remained, technically, a punishment up till a few years ago. What you’d be arguing for is that regardless of what an EU national has done, he should be accorded a privileged status that the local population don’t have. We might have got away with that in Asia 60 or 70 years ago, but we won’t do so now.
Provided that due process has been followed, I’m afraid we have to accept that other countries will do things differently.
I had GE 2010 on betfair but they paid out a week ago.
Re the drug smuggler - why wont Brown step in on the computer hacker to the same extent?
85 Can’t see that. Surely all their resources will go to making absolutely sure Lucas is elected. That seat is far from a given but far more promising. Plus in Norwich South the Lib Dems who have the most to fear from the Lib Dems gaining any traction nationally in University seats will surely go all out to stamp on the threat and they can comand relatively greater resources. With the debates generating much noise as well I doubt they’ll do much. Three way fight at most.
88. That should of course be the Lib Dems having most to fear from the Greens gaining traction.
87, because then Obama won’t be his BFF.
This execution in China is going to cause some people to be very upset - but overall I don’t think most people will care at all. I was just looking at the Have Your Say pages on the BBC about it - 90% take the line ‘drug smugglers deserve everything they get’.
I think what marks out the Chinese approach is that their legal system demands that the sentence, once confirmed, be carried out within a week. None of the endless Death Row appeals and commutations that we see in the USA for example. In China if the courts say you’re going to be executed then you are. I kind of respect that directness.
I’m sure the answer involves something about not smuggling drugs or agreeing to carry other people’s suitcases through customs.
It is possible to take a principled position against the death penalty in all circumstances. I do. On that basis, the UK (and the EU) can protest vigorously to China. But as Sean Fear says, other countries, other rules. If the Chinese decide to keep the death penalty, our options are limited. At what point do human rights stop being universal and start being cultural imperialism?
This was a quiet betting year for me, the only bets of mine that came in were a few quid lost on Shadsy’s wonderfully fun, but totally unprofitable, buzz-word bingo markets. Next year should be much better with quite a lot wagered on May or June for the election and a conservative victory. Ignoring all the early election rampers, and Brown removal proponents certainly helpped to stem my losses.
91 I think that there were reasonable doubts about this man’s guilt.
But, suppose, for example, the Vietnamese had actually executed Gary Glitter - I would not consider that it would be appropriate to threaten them with sanctions as a result.
55 Morus. I’m not sure there’s much evidence for Labour or Tory MPs even popular ones defying UNS to any great degree. Dhanda could hold in a hung parliament situation but given his seat is IIRC in the band the Tories must win to even be the largest party then any kind of Tory majority makes it difficult to see him holding especially in the South.
94 As I understand the fcts of the case there are no doubts at all about his guilt but potentially a few about the state of his mental health. Under Chinese law I don’t know if the latter affects the former. Again from the BBC it seems he has no record of bipolar disorder and the mental health angle is one rasied by his relatives only after the trial.
My take is that this is a good example of harsh reality. The man committed a capital offence in another country and paid the price.
I’m personally uncomfortable with the death penalty but not outright hostile (if I was an MP I’d vote against but fully respect other countries’ rights to retain it if that suits them).
65. Morus, the EU is a soft target of the One World Government programme. Van Rompuy announced in his first speech that World Government was now a reality. Until you have a little more idea exactly what the terms of this shadowy new organisation are going to be, might it not be wise to hold back? Your children and their descendants might not thank you for agreeing to terms before you even know what they are, or indeed who it is that is offering them….who your new rulers are to be.
If you have any idea by the way, do let us all know. Otherwise I advise caution from a viewpoint of common sense.
I’m actually not 100% against the death penalty per se, but here’s where you guys lose me.
I see the practical necessity of recognising China as a de facto world power, but I don’t see that we need offer undue respect for their justice system - either procedurally or substantively. If the EU decides that the Death Penalty is morally unacceptable, then it should employ diplomatic and other forces to see it abolished (or at least its own citizens spared). It’s not a case of legality - I don’t accept that the EU is in any way compelled to recognise or respect Chinese criminal law where it fails to meet European standards and international human rights.
We recognise China as sovereign - that does not (or should not) mean a carte blanche for recognising their justice system as beyond reproach, any more than their electoral/political system is beyond reproach. This is political, not legal.
Re antifrank - I’m sorry, but even as someone who doesn’t actually believe in International Law or Universal Human Rights, I can’t stand this ‘cultural imperialism’ argument. It’s the worst sort of relativistic insipid liberalism.
If you believe in Human Rights, and you believe they are Universal, then ‘cultures’ that don’t respect them are not to be tolerated. No respect should be shown for the stoning of rape victims, female genital mutilation, or torture, and I don’t care what language is spoken, or what interesting dances are done at weddings. Culture, as an excuse to be free of the demands of universal justice and natural rights, should be dismissed out of hand. I can’t remember who said it, but values are supposed to be held without compromise - if you compromise on your values jsut because they are hard to keep to, they’re not values, but hobbies.
You either believe in Universal Human Rights or you don’t. If you do, then end of story. Mealy-mouthed, self-doubting, hand-wringing relativism has no merit and deserves no respect. If Universal Human Rights are neo-colonialism, then Liberals should grow a pair and become neo-colonialists. There’s a time and a place for anthropology, and it’s not when medieval attitudes towards the mistreatment of our fellow man threaten his/her life and liberty.
97 - Tapestry, I was against the Lisbon Treaty, and still distrust the EU for being unaccountable and anti-democratic.
However, since the final ratification of the Treaty, and the beginning of the consolidation period, I’ve effectively given up my euroskepticism. Unless something truly remarkable happens, we are in the EU for good, and it will get ever closer, and will become our Federal Republic. Holding out will be like being an ardent Citizen of the Commonwealth of Kentucky in 1800 railing against the United States.
The EU is the future, like it or not. If it’s going to become the entity which represents me in international affairs, I’d rather start being part of shaping that agenda rather than denying it. If this is how it has to be, with the EU growing into a United States of Europe, I’d rather they did it right.
I’m more than aware of the European agenda in Van Rompuy’s mind. But it is probably inevitable now, so I’m going to work within the system we’ll have, not the system we had.
Morus. But the death penalty is not incompatible with the concept of human rights is it? If someone raped and murdered my daughter I’d be very keen to see them executed. Really. People only get the death sentence when they do something horrific - even in China. Victims have rights too. Probably a majority if the people in the world (even here in the UK too) feel that the death penalty is right and moral for certain crimes.
You seem to be espousing the notion that execution and morality are exclusive. Wow. Many would argue that for certain crimes it is immoral to not execute the perpetrator.
Is Japan an immoral country? A human rights black spot? A contemptible justice system? They execute their worst offenders too. Do you advocate responding to Japan the way you seem to be advocating responding to China?
Consider for a moment that your view of morality may not equal someone else’s. And then think how an absolute standard for what is or is not ‘moral’ can be agreed upon. Internationally.
This thread on the ups and downs to punting is very interesting to me, a well disposed non punter (I do stocks, also a bit dangerous the way I do it). I’m off for a bit, but look forward to following this stuff in detail. Cheers to lefties and righties *equally*.
98 - Morus, I believe that some human rights are universal. The rub is drawing the line. A right not to be tortured or arbitrarily killed, yes. But the death penalty after due process of law? A right to abortion? A right not to be discriminated against because you are gay? As Sean Fear notes in relation to the death penalty, our own view on this is relatively recently-formed (and the same could be said of the other examples I have given). Are we absolutely sure that we are not just projecting early 21st century British attitudes and claiming them to be for all people and all time?
Apologies if already posted but guido is flagging up john prescott’s role as honourary professor at one of the chinese uni’s and asking if if used any of his diplomatic muscle. Wonder if this will gain traction.
99. That’s the point Morus. The EU is not the future. It’s already past. One World Government is the next step happening now. Ashton and Van Rompuy are not your leaders. They are mere executives of the real government, made of people you’ve never heard of, working for organisations you might never have heard of.
I would not resign your sense of resistance until you have at least seen your new masters, heard them speak and have some idea of the future they are planning for you.
Patrick -as I said, I’m not 100% against the death penalty, and this was more advice for the EU to take (to foster a sense of European citizenry, to announce itself on the diplomatic stage, to prove itself agianst the US and China even-handedly)
I don’t think it is intrinsically immoral for the State to execute people, but I think a strict reading of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, or the European Convention on Human Rights makes it practically impossible to allow Capital Punishment. I was working from that moral system underpinning the EU as it currently stands, and I think it would not be strange for that position (death penalty always wrong) to be taken forecfully by the EU (for both political and moral reasons). So I’m playing their advocate here, rather than putting my own view.
Should the EU make the same threat to Japan as to China? Remembering I was talking solely about threatening countries who execute European citizens (a rare occurance), yes - I think it is an easily winnable battle for the EU (very rare, stakes are too large for any trading bloc to insist), and also gives the EU the chance to demonstrate its independence from the US in a non-aligned multi-polar world.
104 Beware the lizard people. You are David Icke and I claim my 5 euros.
104 - I don’t see the One World Government happening in my lifetime, Tapestry, and to be honest there are things I’m more concerned about.
102 - That’s the rub. Liberalism claims universality (as did Catholic Theology before it) but has no explanation for why it isn’t just the product of a particular time in a particular place. I think it is just the product of a place (the ‘West’) and a time (1660 onwards, ossified in 1945/1997)
My point is from there, you can either ignore the problems of the genesis of rights and just consider their existence and universality axiomatic, and just work on the basis that it should apply everywhere and eternally from this time and place forward, or you give up on Universal human rights as a silly fiction altogether. I’ve chosen the latter, but I respect the former too.
The worst of both worlds is to keep insisting on their Universality that you can’t prove or explain, and yet not actually apply them for fear of offending illiberal cultures.
The execution in China was a done deal the second Milliband and Brown attacked China after Copenhagen.
After attacking Chinese face, do the idiots that are in government expect the Chinese to react to any UK request.
105 The EU would be quite mad to seek to enforce its own moral standards on other nations and to seek preference for its own citizens compared to those of other nations under the legal systems of those nations.
It would achieve nothing other than to make the EU look like toddlers throwing teddy into the corner. Surely the EU now needs to grow up?
107. http://the-tap.blogspot.com/2009/12/uk-government-spends-58-of-gdp-in-2009.html
It’s happening OK. Listen to journalist Joan Veon on Youtube describing how Central Banks Rule The World.
I don’t see how the replacement of government with OWG can be of no interest, unless you don’t understand what it means, Morus, which is the situation for most people.
107 Morus. Your current view on Wales for next year? I continue to believe the Lib Dems are good value in Newport East and there is value on the Tories in Montgomeryshire as well.
..and ‘liberal’ western attitudes need to get their own house in order first. If taking human life is immoral then we need to sort out abortion, euthanasia, etc as well as death penalties consistently. The trouble is that much of the left / liberal thinkpiece is quite strongly anti-religious (or more accurately anti-Christian). The abortion issue in the US is a proxy really for attitude to religion. And the church’s own position on morality seems confused as well.
Tapestry. I don’t suppose you could revive your influence with the Conservative Party-preferably before the next election? Maybe even a slogan like the one you gave to Michael Howard? What about a song?
I think that there are only 3 MPs who may buck the trend of a big Tory win - and none of them is Parmjit Dhanda.
They are - in my humble opinion - Kelvin Hopkins in North Luton, Patrick Hall in Bedford and Steve Pound in Ealing North.
Any others?
107 - You can take a different view, and insist vigorously on the universality of human rights, but be very limited in the number of rights that you insist vigorously on universality for. I’m not sure that the death penalty after due process of law meets this threshhold. Amnesty International seem to be losing their way on this point - treating lack of access to abortion as in some way to be compared to having mains electricity fed through your genitalia is a grievous mistake.
111 - I’ve not actually looked at anything to do with Welsh politics except the Labour Leadership in the Senedd, Punter, so let me take a look and get back to you with a considered view shortly.
109 - You could say that. My take is that it would be a powerful token gesture of diplomatic independence and strength, as well as a useful means of constructing a European civic identity with which to foster new European citizenship around which most national populations could gather.
I’ve been doing a lot of reading about state formation, the importance of a civil religion, creation of imagined communities etc. If the EU is to become the United States of Europe, it will need to do more to develop these ethereal features. Pan-European media and a clearer ‘national’ identity developing a sense of popular affiliation with the EU are the obvious steps, and the recognition of primacy over member states by other global powers is another. I think this token fight is the one to pick, because it is easily winnable, and ticks the boxes.
112 - Agreed.
109…do the EU have any gunboats?
Ah, more LabourList comedy.
http://www.labourlist.org/tories-are-the-only-ones-fighting-a-class-war-toby-flux
“Ed Balls has described the notion that Labour is fighting a class war as “nonsense” but doesn’t miss the opportunity to repeat the real message – that Tory tax plans are the embodiment of class war.
He’s right to do so. How else could one explain Cameron’s plan to change the Married Couple Allowance, which would give the highest earners 13 times as much as people on lower incomes; abolishing the 50p income tax rate, which would give all the benefit to the highest earning 1% of the population; reversing fairer Pension Relief Rules, where all the benefit is to the 1.5% top pension savers; or their Inheritance Tax Giveaway, which only favours the 2% wealthiest estates?”
116. Thanks. O/T But what do you think the future holds for Mandelson after May. World Bank, IMF, Hollywood?
108 saddo - couldn’t agree more. They don’t have any credibility or nous.
Shame they couldn’t try to stop Gary McKinnon’s extradition.
Morus December 29th, 2009 at 5:46 am “This is precisely the sort of moment that the EU should use to its advantage - carrying significantly more weight with the Chinese than I suspect Britain does on its own…”
Led by that international statesman Cathy Ashton?
Well the BBC present this as the death of a European/EC citizen. Not the death of a Brit.
118 - I love the way Labour always present [proposed] tax changes as “giving” the well-off more money, as opposed to what it actually is: confiscating less of it.
119 - I’ve always thought back to the EU, but with Ashton there it makes it harder for another Brit. He’d do well at the Commission, but unless he takes over from Barosso (not going to happen), I can’t see what would interest him. There’s only just been a new Secretary General of the Council of Europe, so that’s out.
Not sure he’s economically wonkish enough to go to the World Bank or the IMF. ECB is out of the question (Franco-German stitch up and no-one from a country outside the EuroZone would be considered). He’s not a judge, which rules out a lot of other positions.
Maybe he will be given some roving role by Van Rompuy and Barosso - a project to manage that crosses Commissioner portfolios, perhaps. Or maybe he joins a major philanthropic foundation (Clinton, or Blair). I can see him maturing into a Kissinger-type figure - always one hand for a world leader to confide in, some academia, lots of travel and schmoozing.
I can’t believe Cameron would offer him a job, or that he would feel able to accept, but it’s probably got to be mentioned.
I must be honest, for all the animosity, I actually think he is a rather unique talent and I’d be sorry to see him under-utilised if/when Labour lose power. He has a capability to do a great deal, but nowhere quite to lay his hat. A shame.
I really, really need to sleep now, so will pick up comments later on today. Night all.
Not the bet of the year, nor a cert, but in my view this one is worthwhile.
The Tories in Birmingham Northfield at 6/4 with Sky Bet (15/8 with Victor Chandler until 1 minute ago). This seat is Tory target 197 according to UK Polling Report. The Tories currently have a notional 214 seats. If they won all of these and the 197 up to and including Birmingham Northfield, they would have 411 seats. At first blush, this makes this an unattractive bet. But.
There are 12 seats above Birmingham Northfield in the list that the Tories would need to take from third. Coming from third is always tough, and almost never achieved in practice.
There are no fewer than 42 seats above Birmingham Northfield in the list (not including those in the previous batch of 12) that the Tories would need to take from a party other than Labour. The Lib Dems and the SNP are going to be tougher propositions than Labour.
There are 4 further seats above Birmingham Northfield in the list (not already counted above) that the Tories would need to take in Scotland, which shows every sign of being particularly tough terrain for the Tories.
There are 30 further seats above Birmingham Northfield in the list (not already counted above) that the Tories would need to take from Labour in the north of England, which I have defined as Lancashire and Yorkshire upwards. The Tories appear to be faltering a bit in this region at present, and Labour may be firming up here.
So there are 86 seats where the Tories have what you might euphemistically call special challenges. Not that special at all really.
Now, if the Tories take a seat with Birmingham Northfield’s profile in an electorally broadly neutral location, they will certainly take some of these 86 seats, but probably not as many as they would have taken if they had been transplanted to somewhere with the same raw data in more promising terrain. Maybe they’d take half of them. That would make Birmingham Northfield seat number 368.
But you should further factor in that Birmingham Northfield is in the west midlands, the area that seems to have swung hardest against Gordon Brown. And it really is a two horse race. If the Tories don’t take Birmingham Northfield, I very much doubt whether they will have much of a majority at all.
Now, you may disagree with parts of my analysis. Maybe you think that I’m being too gloomy about the Tories’ chances in the 86 special cases. Maybe you think I’m overstating the swing in the west midlands and its importance to the Tory chances. I maintain, however, that Birmingham Northfield ranks far above seat 197 in the Tories’ hopes. Betfair offers you the chance to back a Tory majority at 1.44 (4/9) or to buy the Tories on the Party seats line at evens at 358. Sky Bet offer you 6/4 on a proposition that in my view is actually more likely to come home than the Party seats line bet.
Morning all and Mike if you had listened to those of us who claim some knowledge of Scottish politics, you would not have wasted money betting against Scottish politicians.
A year ago I told you Gordon Brown was going nowhere and would “fight to the death” to remain in No 10.
Alistair Darling values power more than honour and it will be the voters of Edinburgh SW next year who finish his current political career not Gordon Brown. He will lose Edinburgh SW.
John Reid was never going to give up one of the most influential jobs in Scotland (Celtic Chairman) for another job in a failing government. The secret of his success in cabinet was never to hold a job long enough to be seen to have failed.
I had virtually no bets this year. My bank contacted me a year ago and offered me a 30% reduction if I could repay a second mortgage immediately so I did but that together with the agreed purchase of some more garden ground cleaned out my savings and in the second half of the year I have been using my own money to subsidise one of my companies which Gordon Brown’s incompetence has helped to see a 90% fall in turnover.
I do still have the next Labour leader bet and hope Harriet is the only serious contender left standing post GE as I have her on 16/1 among a number of others.
Surely today has proved that in the eyes of the international community, Labour has turned the UK into a mediocre world nation (to quote the excellent Colin Brazier on SKY News this morning) hardly in a position to dictate to a world super-power. Had Margaret Thatcher still been PM, the poor man would not have been executed by the Chinese.
Gordon Brown + David Milliband = World laughing stock.
I agree with others who suggest that Brown etc mouthing off after Copenhagen will have sealed that man’s death sentence.
Brown and others should also remember that if the British people had anything to do with it there would be several hundred if not more than 1000 empty prison beds in the UK as most British people want the return of the death penalty for a number of offences. It may be very popular in China but it is also very popular here.
125 I have no idea why this is in moderation!
113. I wrote slogans for UKIP, Roger in 2001, and was as surprised as anyone to find them being used by Conservatives. ‘What’s Best For Britain’ in particular was used endlessly by Michael Howard.
A song? Influence? Lolz. Now it’s you, Roger, delving into the realm of fantasy. Cameron doesn’t buy into my style of political writing. My ideas for an ‘anti-EU Constitution’ graphic, for example, were rejected by Rachel Whetstone, but were later used by The Sun.
I still have hopes for Boris, though, the great plagiarist. He is never too proud not to steal a good idea from anyone.
What kind of song do you want? How much are you prepared to pay?
102. “Are we absolutely sure that we are not just projecting early 21st century British attitudes and claiming them to be for all people and all time?”
You imply there’s something wrong with that. Britain was ahead of the curve on slavery but I’d argue that it was the right call (and there were plenty of supporters of slavery / the slave trade when they were abolished). It’s a question of picking the issue and the timing.
91 Patrick - BBC R5 just had a phone-in about the Chinese execution and the overwhelming majority were very unsympathetic too.
The fact [that I wasn't aware of] he had no ‘medical’ history of mental illness and it wasn’t brought up until ‘after’ the trial seemed to be have made many callers suspicious of its veracity.
I’ve been quite surprised at the reaction - I assumed he’d get the ‘local man involved’ support which applies to almost everyone caught abroad except Gary Glitter types.
Drug mules are clearly coming up on the rails.
127 - There are many aspects of early 21st century British attitudes which future generations will be horrified at. But I agree with your general point.
Morning all.
On-topic, I don’t have any year-end 2009 positions. My best success was probably on the Gordon Brown speech to Congress. I’ve only been nickel-and-diming on Betfair, though, until the situation at work gets better.
Off-topic: England 513/6 at lunch, a lead of 170.
125. Easterross - cleared.
re 124. You should always check the official (Thrasher & Rallings) 2005 “notionals” in any seat betting. UKPR has this needing a 10.35% swing to the Tories - the T&R numbers have it at 9.46 which moves it 20 or so seats up the list.
The official notionals are here -
http://election.pressassociation.com/constituencies.html
130-Indeed!
I bet we can’t even agree on which ones future generations will be horrified at!
125 - Mark, it would have been the dreaded “mortg@ge” word that put you into moderation…
103
‘Apologies if already posted but guido is flagging up john prescott’s role as honourary professor at one of the chinese uni’s and asking if if used any of his diplomatic muscle.’
Your having a larf?
@134:
Future generations will find it extraordinary that Piers Morgan was allowed to live.
133 - Many thanks. Following your previous posts on this subject, I do indeed now (but wanted to use the UK Polling Report figures a) because it showed my bet in a less favourable light, so I could not be accused of overselling it and b) because the UK Polling Report list is more convenient to check rankings). Thrasher & Rallings’ analysis makes the suggested bet look still better.
Benedict Anderson’s concept of *imagined communities* is pretty vital indeed to understand the in-formation and endurance of collective forms of life such as nations and empires, even smaller ones such as tribes.
134 My vote - the current mania for CRB checks applying to 9m people and children becoming potential paedophiles on their 18th bithday.
Completely barking, and sinister too.
134 - No bet. But then, your attitudes appear to come from somewhere around 1875.
@134/140:
Centuries from now, the robots will be looking back over this planet, pleased at having finally extinguished the last human, and will chortle gleefully when they remember that billions of apes believe in a magical invisible man in the sky that you talk to in your head, and he makes everything better, and sometimes lets you live in his garden when you’re dead.
142 - It is more likely that they will think it hysterically funny that those who thought themselves the brightest and best of the age fooled themselves into believing that they could derive moral propositions from statements of fact.
@143:
What? Logical Positivism’s been dead for half a century (though nobody told Richard Dawkins).
130 Perhaps the idea that because 10 million people voted for you, you were deemed to have “talent”.
Or, perhaps the idea that because 300-odd Labour MP’s voted for you, you were deemed to be “Prime Ministerial”.
Re bets of 2009 - pretty quiet for me too.
Allowed my heart to rule my head on Young for Speaker, but at least it was a rollercoaster of an election.
And had a punt on a snap election in Oct
Outstanding bets for Hattie/Straw to be next Leader.
Put most of my stake money into Mr Smithson so least said about that the better
OT: I hate this bloody weather. Colder or wetter or snowier is fine, but now there’s a load of stubborn ice on the path outside my house. Bloody annoying.
144 - No one seems to have told 99.9% of those calling themselves atheists. And the other 0.1% know about the problem, but just ignore it as highly inconvenient. The idea that religion might be good at solving a problem of thought that science is very poor at solving is just too hideous for them to contemplate.
124/133. You should use my probability tool to work out the chance of it falling for any given national Tory lead…
http://www.titanictown.plus.com/seatchance.xls
So for example, if the national current polling lead of about 10.8% was replicated at the election, the chance of Northfield falling is about 20%.
If you think the Midlands would have a higher regional swing, adjust the chance upwards accordingly.
Northfield was a “surprise” Tory gain in 1979, btw…
147 It’s throwing it down here and 3C - have just discovered that my bin collection has been cancelled because it fell on a Tuesday and I have nowhere put all my used cat litter, nevermind the usual domestic stuff.
Not impressed
@148:
To be honest, most atheists are no better at thinking beyond the simplest moral abstractions than the “magic man done it” brigade. Philosophy is hard.
I’m with C-Hitch on this one. I’m more of an antitheist.
151 - Philosophy is hard, and I like your honesty. It’s too hard for me, if I’m being honest. I’ve got as far as rejecting the clichéd atheist position and no further. One day when I get enough time to sit down and really think it through, I might find the key to it all. But even I’m not quite that arrogant.
152, what’s the cliched atheist position? I’m an atheist, but as a fish-breeding, morris dancing space cannon engineer I’d like to think I’m not a cliche.
151 Happy to confess that I tried to read Mr Dawkins’ God Delusion and I gave in after about half-way.
I was equally crap at understanding the whole Kant part of my college syllabus, so have concluded that my brain isn’t wired for such things
I’ve never been anything other than an atheist, though I can see the attraction of believing in the old invisible friend stuff/social side of organised religion.
@152:
You can tell a lot about its belief system by its choice of popes. Atheism has Richard Dawkins. *shudder*
I adhere to the Church of the Blessed Christopher. The sacred text is “Letters to a Young Contrarian”.
@142 — Cylon!
153 - The clichéd atheist position, as routinely espoused on the Guardian’s commentisfree site, is to say “look, guv, this God sky pixie is all very improbable . It’s much simpler just to assume he/she/it doesn’t exist. And ha ha, aren’t those godbotherers stupid?”
Which as well as being rude and arrogant, is both simplistic and highly problematical.
@153:
The cliched position is essentially the Dawkins Logical Positivist stance. Logical positivism has been known by philosophers to be a self-contradictory thesis for a long time.
156 When can we expect the next election in Canada? Any sign Harper or the opposition want one next year or will it be 2011 or later.
On topic, the common factor seems to me overestimating the probability of rapid change, especially Ministerial. When someone gets the media on their case, there’s always a market on their resigning soon, but politicians are often a hardy breed and they know that if they hang on for a while the press will find another target. pb.com tends to overestimate the importance of short-term events IMO - ‘X is toast, how can he possibly stay on after that?’ about some incident that everyone’s forgotten about a week later. It may be better to stick to election results (when you’re essentially predicting how large numbers of people will think, on the basis of polling data) rather than make bets dependent on judgment of individual psyches.
On the death penalty: Anthony Wells used to have an index for polls on specific issues, but I can’t find it. FWIW, my recollection is that the majority are still in favour, but the gap is relatively narrow (49-41 sticks in my mind). People are generally resigned to the status quo even when they’d like it back, though - it’s in the “If it were up to me I’d bring back the birch” category. That said, I don’t think most opponents are fanatical about it, and disinclined to be especially critical of other countries who execute people who commit crimes that are also seen as serious in Britain (like paedophilia).
I’m a hardline anti, myself, though. I understand Patrick’s point about how he’d feel if his daughter was involved, but I always admired the Dukakis reply that supposedly lost him the election, on the lines of, ‘If my wife was raped and murdered I’d probably want the killer executed, but I don’t think the law should be based on how I’d personally feel at a moment like that.’ I don’t think the social contract includes the right of the State to kill you in peacetime, and really it seems to me that this ought to be a Conservative view - it seems inconsistent to fret about state intrusiveness (CCTV, ID cards, tax inspectors, etc.) but be relaxed about the State chopping your head off.
157/158, hmm. My view is that a god isn’t necessary, and there isn’t any evidence. Does that fall into the cliched category?
Take heart Mike there’s still 2 days to go. The only one of these bets I had was Ashton. I lost money on Darling staying this time last year.
@157:
There’s nothing wrong with being rude and arrogant. This is philosophy we’re talking here. A quest for truth. People’s feelings will get hurt along the way.
It’s obviously problematic though. Read Karl Popper, the greatest philosopher of the twentieth century, for his critical rationalist demolition of logical positivist mores.
The essential problem with the LP viewpoint goes something like this.
Logical Positivist 1: That which cannot be verified is meaningless!
Logical Positivist 2: Can we verify this?
Logical Positivist 1: … Bugger.
@161:
That depends on whether or not you consider absence of evidence to be evidence of absence.
164
To be logical, adopt the nuclear physics approach. Devise an experiment to prove your theorem…
Punter, just asked my Canadian colleague who was back there at Christmas. She doesn’t think it’ll be soon.
@165:
The problem that a rather limited thinker like Dawkins has is his inability to separate the notions of verifiable vs unverifiable, and the notion of physical vs metaphysical.
Logical positivism holds that there *is* no metaphsyics, which is odd, since the whole thing is an exercise in metaphysical abstraction. Which is part of the reason why it’s such an easily rebutted viewpoint, and therefore peculiar that an otherwise smart man like Dawkins is so reliant on it.
149. I’ve updated the tool to allow input of a regional bonus swing.
160 - Nick, you’ve slipped into a fantasy on what Dukakis should have said.
What he actually said was.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DF9gSyku-fc
Unfortunately he did bear a stark resemblence to a Thunderbird puppet while not saying what you think he said.
I fear Morus has taken the spirit of Christmas too freely on board and is now suffering from a severe attack of youthful idealism.
The idea that the EU should impose trade sanctions on the USA if, for example Brit is executed in California, for the killing of a police officer is laughable. It would also never happen.
Aside from all other considerations no country in the EU would agree to have their commercial prospects damaged in order to register a protest about the execution of a foreign national. Would the UK really see BAE Systems contracts and jobs go down the drain because a Bulgar or Rumanian gangster was to be executed? I don’t think so, and I am certain the French would never put the interests of a foreign individual (or even one of their own) above the interests of France.
To demand that no country should execute an EU citizen ever, regardless of the circumstances, would not set a lead. It would make the EU a laughing-stock. It would also be an insult to countries like China, India, Japan, the USA and insulting people one depends on is seldom a sensible idea.
Punter, I have no idea — i’m based in Thailand since 1 year, and have since not been very much in political analysis when there was no actual betting opportunities — I have to say… Check out Andrew Coyne’s blog; the guy’s brillant AND well-connected in Ottawa.
168 - Many thanks, Rod Crosby. I shall play at leisure.
@169:
Urk. That was difficult to watch.
On Topiv (I think…)
It seems to me, Mike, that your losing bets were all ones which relied upon someone else (usually Gordon Brown) to make a decision. That seems to me to be a very risky premise from which to determine whether a possible future event is a Value Bet. If an election has been called, then there is a body of evidence, gossip, news and prejudice to help you make your mind up as to who is going to win……but betting on whether the Patronage System will determine whether Buggins will be given a specific job in the Cabinet is as risky as beting on whether Sarah Brown will give her children Rice Crispies or Cornflakes for breakfast.
So, Old Carp’s Advice for 2010 is to avoid any bet which relies on someone making a decision - only invest if the outcome relies on a group decision, such as a good honest(?) by election.
might he (Brown) not stay as titular leader until Sept/Oct Conference?
by Morus December 29th, 2009 at 6:50 am
Not a chance, he will go off in a huff trailing dudgeon like an oily exhaust leaving everyone flat. That is how he is.
And then he will plot and interfere. But a ghost has no physical properties, so it will leave him frustrated and liable to issue spectral screams which cause the maximum discomfort for his successor at the most sensitive of times.
I wonder what Ed Balls is to lose his seat. This re-drawn constituency is an unknown quantity and I still think its underestimated how genuinely hated he is - plus the BNP might take some of his WWC Labour votes.
164, well, no. It doesn’t prove god doesn’t exist, in the same way it doesn’t prove the invisible pink unicorn doesn’t exist.
From the FT:
“Britain’s economy grew more slowly in each year of the noughties than it did in any other decade since the war.
A Financial Times analysis of official data shows that output grew by 1.7 per cent on average every year from 2000 to 2009. In the 1960s, by comparison, it rose by an average of 3.1 per cent a year.
The sluggish economic performance of the past decade took place against a backdrop of rising population – a factor that tends to boost output, not shrink it. The UK’s population rose from 56m in 1971 to 61m in 2007, and is forecast to reach 62.8m in 2011.
This weak picture was also mirrored in the wider stock market – the noughties delivered the worst decade of returns for investors than any since the 1930s, with annual returns of -1.8 per cent on average. Investors had not lost money over a decade since the Great Depression of the 1930s.
Output in manufacturing actually contracted during the noughties, declining by an average of 1.2 per cent each year, according to data from the Office for National Statistics.
That did not happen even in the 1970s and 1980s, when it was government policy to allow inefficient industries to go to the wall. In those two decades, manufacturing output grew at average annual rates of 0.6 per cent and 1.0 per cent respectively.”
There was one thing though that Labour have managed to increase during the last decade:
DEBT
Labour’s economic policy has consisted of two things - lies and stealing money from the future.
@177:
Well, quite. I always end up stuck between two equally unappealing metaphysical dipoles. “Magic man done it.” vs “In the beginning there was nothing. Which exploded.”
‘Morus suffering from an attack of youthful idealism’
Re Dawkins, he does make one (and probably only one) very good point in the God Delusion:
The existence of god may be desirable, but that does not make it any more probable.
It’s a very important point: religion and belief in God (like belief in the power of homoeopathy) may be good, and may serve a very important societal purpose. However, no matter how desirable, it does not make god’s existence ant more likely…
132 Thanks David
NPMP @ 160
it seems inconsistent to fret about state intrusiveness (CCTV, ID cards, tax inspectors, etc.) but be relaxed about the State chopping your head off.
Nick I know you are a socialist and that usually precludes sentient thought, but do bear with me.
State Intrusiveness is an attack on the innocent, by those who have the power to do so. It does not follow due process, and is indiscriminate.
Execution, is the final step in a process that proves guilt for a major crime.
The difference is enormous enough even for opponents of the death penalty to understand.
Moreover, the abuse of state power is the end result of the state reneging on its social contract. The day we decided that crime didn’t need to be punished, and that social norms were bourgeoisie discrimination, we lost control. The trend that has led to the government that you support treating all its citizens as criminals, is the last desperate flailings of a government that is out of ideas.
UN rules forbid group punishment, and yet the UK, a permanent member of its security council, has effectively decided to punish all of its citizens, because to just punish the guilty would be unnecessarily discriminatory.
On topic, it hasn’t been a bad year, considering how few political betting events there were. No doubt about my worst bet though - Gordon to go in 2009. That cost me a packet but I don’t regret the bet. I got decent odds, it could easily have happened and probably should.
Hard to see an outstanding political bet right now. There have been some silly odds on Greens to win a seat at the GE (6/4) which was generous considering they are 13/8 to win Brighton and are by no means out of it in Norwich South [see Bunnco at 85, for example]. Even so, it’s slim pickings, so…
…My New Year’s betting gift to Site punters concerns the Grand National where I repeat my earlier advice to get on Backstage at 25/1. It is being groomed specifically for the race so barring injury or other mishap, it will definitely participate - in which case it is likely to go off favorite or close to it.
If it comes in, it will fill your lockers nicely for the GE to follow in May!
Happy New Year everybody.
150 Plato it was minus 10 here last night so we have added snow to the snow which fell 9 days ago. Very Christmas card like
179 - For anyone who thought George Galloway couldn’t sink any lower
http://www.thejc.com/news/uk-news/25375/george-galloway-compares-israel-nazi-doctor
http://www.hurryupharry.org/2009/12/28/george-galloway-depravity/
2169: thanks, tim - sad to give up one’s illusions on what people ought to have said… Perhaps I’m remembering some post-debate gloss on it. I’m OK with what he did say - at least he didn’t evade the question - but I agree it wasn’t very inspiringly put.
O/T…..270,000 deprived families are to receive free computers under Government plans. this will swamp the second hand market!
188, ….
This is as pathetic as free theatre tickets for Labour voters. Sorry, the poor. Not Labour voters. My mistake.
184 I agree. I’d make the Greens favourite in Brighton now. The Tory candidate switch, the demographic changes and the collapse of Labour in the South all help. Most especially Lucas will get huge free publicity as the media get hugely interested by the novelty of the idea of a Green MP.
Serf, ignoring the rhetoric, you say:
“State Intrusiveness is an attack on the innocent, by those who have the power to do so. It does not follow due process, and is indiscriminate.”
So you don’t oppose state intrusiveness, to the point of execution, if someone appears not to be innocent, bearing in mind the obvious fact that the best of due processes sometimes gets the wrong conclusion? IIRC the end of the death penalty came after it was conclusively shown that a murderer had successfully framed his neighbour, who was executed for the murder. If the neighbour had been imprisoned, he could have been released and lavishly compensated (in an ideal world at the expense of the savings of the man who framed him). But how do you compensate the dead?
190, I hope she loses. Smarmy leftist republican.
170. I am certain the French would never put the interests of a foreign individual (or even one of their own) above the interests of France.
The French would generally avoid getting into a situation where they were faced with an either or choice. They’re happy to do what they can for Polanski, for example, but there’s no real risk involved beyond some nebulous bad PR.
It’s probably fair to say Britain would generally follow a similar policy: the Don Pacifico Affair (the civus romanus sum one) and the War of Jenkins Ear were not pure acts of idealism, to put it mildly.
Mike,others
I am very pleased to say that I will not loose a penny.
I don’t bet. It’s a mugs game!
You don’t see bookmakers going out of business do you?
I’m in favour of the death penalty for political prisoners.
Be thankful I don’t know where y’all live.
wayne, u can gamble like a bookie on betfair n intrade!
193: bill d @ 11:51
“The French would generally avoid getting into a situation where they were faced with an either or choice …
It’s probably fair to say Britain would generally follow a similar policy”
So you agree then that the idea of the EU imposing trade sanctions on a country proposing to execute, or having actually executed, an EU citizen could never happen?
Re: China, the point is that the man was likely mentally ill and they wouldn’t even allow for any tests to verify this. As such their actions are well beyond that of a civilised nation.
I think that most people would be against executing someone who was not responsible for their actions.
Also, as per Morus, it isn’t credible to say we have to go along with a nation’s methods of justice. Should we sit back and say nothing about what may happen to arrested Brits in Iran or Myanmar or various other places just because they are a sovereign nation?
Fortunately didn’t do too many date related bets, but saw the chances of good prices on Alan Johnson and Harman for the leadership disappear.
Some good successes, in particular the Speaker market.
Alas, missed the cathy Ashton tip.
“…Re: China, the point is that the man was likely mentally ill and they wouldn’t even allow for any tests to verify this. As such their actions are well beyond that of a civilised nation….”
Was there any evidence of mental illness before the trial? From what I have read this issue was raised after the trial and there is a deep suspicion that it was a last ditch defence tactic. Admittedly have not followed this case at any real depth, so would be interested in your answer.
198-Why? If you may be mentally ill, but you still committed the crime.
Actually, Bill Clinton had no problems executing people with low IQs. And why should he?
“They are - in my humble opinion - Kelvin Hopkins in North Luton, Patrick Hall in Bedford and Steve Pound in Ealing North.”
Pound is intensely annoying and partisan in the extreme, I can’t see him being able to buck any trend.
ICM poll suggests Greens will win in Brighton, more here http://another-green-world.blogspot.com/2009/12/icm-poll-suggests-caroline-lucas-will.html
176. If the BNP take WWC votes in M&O, it should help Balls. The Tories need to be eating into that demographic there if they’re to win.
191: “IIRC the end of the death penalty came after it was conclusively shown that a murderer had successfully framed his neighbour, who was executed for the murder”
What on earth is this rubbish?
203. Quite plausible. MOE 4%
197. Well it could happen: it would be more likely to be a pariah state like Burma or North Korea when there is, frankly, not much to be got from them anyway. (Okay, Burma has oil.)
But standing up to the US or China seems a remote possibility. It would probably need several factors in place (eg pan-European public outrage, a pointed diplomatic snub from Beijing) for it to be remotely likely. Non of which is to advocate that EU foreign policy should be based on ensuring that we are in prime place to kow-tow to our new Chinese overlords; I’d argue it should be based on ensuring that does not happen.
191 Nick your Government is about to extradite a mentally ill British subject under a one-sided extradition treaty to the USA to face a Kangeroo court where politicians have already pronounced him a terrorist so you are not in a position to speak on the subject. You supported Blair’s one-sided keeping George Bush happy treaty did you not?
The sooner your lot are consigned to the political dustbin the better. You have been part of the most authoritan administration this country has seen in modern times. Even throughout the 30 year period when we had a civil war going on in part of the UK we Tories did not impose the police state your lot take now for granted.
205 - 10 Rillington Place.
Peter2′ why not indeed? But then you’re the sort of person who would happily string up the likes of me and Martin C, so I don’t think we need to hear your views on this matter.
202-Quite Bedfordshire centric!
200 - Don (the other one) - the point being that no tests were carried out. If there had been proper tests there would have been less of a problem.
Frankly, I separate democracies from dictatorships on this - Japan and the US* are democracies so their death penalty has a legal basis, Saudi and China are not so any action taken against citizens of another country are to be challenged.
* It is, though, the case that even then mentally ill people have been executed, witness the guy who wanted to leave some of his final meal ‘for later’. In that case, however, the people of the country could make them answerable at the ballot box.
Nick 191, “…But how do you compensate the dead?…”
How do you compensate the many more victims of murderers who have been released from prison to kill again?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1540632/Convicted-murderers-who-were-set-free-to-kill.html
I do not agree with the death sentence, but I do agree with life meaning at least 30 years in prison. Too many murderers are freed early to kill again.
205. he’s talking about Evans/Christie.
The end of the death penalty came really because Labour was elected in 1964. However it had already been restricted to a limited class of crimes by the 1957 Homicide Act. IIRC, only about 25 people were executed from that point forward to abolition.
The Death Penalty was a political tool, which had outlived its usefulness. Throughout the 20th Century only about 50% of men and 10% of women sentenced to death were actually executed, with some bizarre cases, such as…
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christopher_Simcox
ukpaul, so no evidence of mental illness then?
210-But I am happy to hear your views. Guess I am more tolerant than you.
Guess it’s the new uber-tolerance though: if you don’t agree with Chris A you have no right to voice an opinion.
207: bill d December 29th, 2009 at 12:16 pm
“None of which is to advocate that EU foreign policy should be based on ensuring that we are in prime place to kow-tow to our new Chinese overlords; I’d argue it should be based on ensuring that does not happen.”
I agree. However, my original post was in response to Morus’s suggestion that the EU should impose trade sanctions against ANY nation where its legal system had condemmed an EU Citizen to death (see posts 32 and 65 above). Hence my comment on “youthful idealism”.
215 - Not sure what you are getting at, there were no tests so there was no evidence. That the possibility of mental illness was not tested is the issue, not that the lack of testing meant that there was no evidence.
Check out web site Tory Stories for details of hypocrisy. Vote Blue get Green exposed for a lie in the Isle of Wight where Tory MP and council opposed wind farm applications resulting in Vestas, a valuable local employer going to the States. 51 councils have signed up to 10:10 but only 11 are Tory. Tory council in Surrey is to end school buses in July 2010 in order to achieve maximum savings. People under 30 have no idea what it is like to live under a Tory government but these examples give us an idea of what it will be like. By the way it is possible for a group of student friends to be in the same house and post individual comments on the same e mail address without being branded as Trolls,goblins etc. To be banned for hating Cameron is worrying for the state of democracy on this site.
Ref God and/or the universal applications of standards (or not), all logical arguments can be reduced to a point where their most fundamental building blocks have to be taken as axiomatic. I can’t off-hand remember if there’s a way to logically prove that a+b = b+a but if there is, it will probably bring about very basic questions on set theory. It just isn’t possible to prove ever more fundamental questions; at some point you hit bedrock and either have to take something as given or rely on mutually supporting (ie circular) arguments. If we’re required to prove everything then ultimately, we can’t prove anything.
So in politics. The most famous is “we hold these truths to be self-evident …” (no you don’t Thomas - liberty? how many slaves are you keeping?). In fact, this is where moral relativism breaks down: it relies on all parties accepting that relative relationship and so makes that acceptance the only acceptable - and essential - absolute value.
Assertions, made simply because we believe them or would like them to be so, are just as important in political philosphy as in any other branch of it. They give a grounding and root to actions and enable others to be able to judge and anticipate. Otherwise, all that’s left is tactics.
219 Ah. Lilly. I see you’re using a space after the full stop though - great camouflage.
Lilly, I will go to the website you quote if you go to this one,
http://www.labour-watch.com/sleaze.htm then we can come back and compare notes. Deal?
Peter2′ happy for you to spout your views, after all they just point out to all and sundry what an intolerant bigot you usually are.
“I see you’re using a space after the full stop though ”
But not the comma.
179 “In the beginning there was nothing. Which exploded.”
Mr Coxall, that is the puzzling bit that I don’t get - however, I prefer this one to a great sky being who created it all in 6 days and then had a lie down
Now if gods were like the Greek variety playing chess in an episode of Star Trek, I’d go for that
77 “I wouldn’t be at all surprised if a majority of Labour voters were in favour as well. But not Labour activists.”
Very much so. The more violent an environment is the more the people in it understand and believe in the neccessity of deterrence.
Same thing with CND and 1983.
205 i think he is referring to the sad case of Christie
224
Eagle-eyed of you Mr UKP!
219 -
1) Websites aren’t democratic. Mr Smithson’s site, Mr Smithson’s rules. If you don’t like it, start your own.
2) You get a lot further on here if you engage rather than project. If you and your “student friends” all project the same view, you won’t get very far.
3) You get further if you don’t project relentlessly on-message one party’s line to take. The most interesting posters on here are the least predictable. Rants can have great comic value (usually unintentionally so) but aren’t very persuasive.
Nick 191, “…But how do you compensate the dead?…”
Easy: By voting in parliament very strongly, on all possible occasions, against any form of inquiry into the lies, distortions and general eagerness to rim George W Bush which led to their deaths.
I am appalled by drug smugglers, and in general I think that they deserve what they get if they are caught. The case of Akmal Shaikh is clearly quite different; he was a man with a major psychiatric illness who plainly had no idea what he was doing, and he was executed by the Chinese government.
The Chinese clearly have their own rules, and will not listed to our feeble protests. So if you really take objection to what they have done, perhaps you could stop buying cheap (and often second rate) Chinese goods, which you probably didn’t need inthe first place; now that is something the Chinese would notice.
221 - she also doesn’t seem to think we’ll remember the John Denham article that was posted yesterday that she’s just totally bastardised to make that post.
I suggest she has a look at post 96 here, where I take a giant poo on its nonsense claims:
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2009/12/28/what-do-you-think-was-the-biggest-story-of-the-decade/
I don’t really have that much of a view on whether the chinese shoudl execute British drug smugglers .If I really had to make a decision personally I would probably say no ,however I do believe in the death penalty for the worst murders and particulary as the promise has been broken that once the death penalty was abolished life woudl mean life and in a unpleasant place.
I would certainly want dead somebody who murdered in cold blood a memebr of mu family so I don’t want to be arrogant enough to deny that to families where they have lost people to murder
also the rise in murder cases since the death penalty was abolished is quite telling
214.
10 Rillington Place was neither the trigger or context for the end of hanging.
Christie was hanged in 1953, more than a decade before the end of capital punishment.
The case of Ruth Ellis was far more influential, simply because she was a woman and the last to be hanged.
Whatever the demerits of the Evans case, he was far from a sympathetic figure, unlike the unfortunate Derek Bentley.
In any case, the idea that an member of the legislature, such as NPMP, should think the rubbish he wrote on this issue is very disturbing. Whatever the ideological standpoint an MP takes one expects a little better than such infantile ignorance of the facts.
219 (Lily Allen) is a plagiarised extract from today’s Guardian, which is why her punctuation has improved slightly:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/dec/28/inconvenient-truths-tory-councils-progressive
Students, eh? Dontcha love ‘em.
Anyhow, I don’t see what all the fuss is about.
Ruth Ellis: “Don’t worry, it’s like having a tooth out and they’ll give me a glass of brandy beforehand.”…”
Im down on one thing only, Brown still being there. This is more than compensated as we trot into 2010 on the election date (the longer it goes the bigger my profit) but from a betting point of view the Brown survival really sticks in the craw.
Its 3 times that I’ve bet some way or another around the demise of Gordo. I know I’m not the only one to get my fingers burned in this way. My return may come on the next leader market but it is a salutory lesson to be very very careful to back something when you are dependent on people or animals who have shown clear evidence of wimping out before.
I forgot this and paid for it.
225. Gods exist if we will it so.
236 Tsk, Mr Smithson clearly needs to install anti-plagiarism software, which I gather is now de rigeur for all higher educational establishments.
219. Lilly Allen December 29th, 2009 at 12:29 pm
“it is possible for a group of student friends to be in the same house and post individual comments on the same e mail address”
I don’t think see why it should be. Since everyone can get an almost infinite number of personal email addresses for free, why shouldn’t Mike insist on an individual address for each poster?
Ukpaul et al, I don’t really care about your grammatical obsessions but I do care about walking blindly into a mean Tory future. Rage,Rage, against that at all costs. Petty ridicule can’t touch my principles.
The prices for the likely winners of our 2009 year end specials at the start of the year:
PM: Brown 2/5
Chancellor: Darling 4/6
Home Sec: Johnson 25/1
For Sec: D Miliband 4/6
Probably all ends up about levels for us. Could have done with Miliband going to Europe, but relieved that Balls didn’t take over at the Treasury.
“Shoppers have been flocking to the High Street over the Christmas weekend, with numbers far exceeding those from this time last year, figures have shown.”
“The number of shoppers out on Sunday, 27 December was 17.9% up on the same Sunday last year, said Experian, a research house that measures footfall.”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8433633.stm
240 - Would that stop you posting BNP e-mails and climate spam?
You are probably the wrong person to be complaining.
241 - Precisely. They may have the same IP address, but would certainly post using their own email address.
the ‘Brown survival’ annoys as well. But I can’t help but be a lil’ hopeful every now and then that he’ll resign before the GE. I really can’t imagine him leading Labour into the Election. Even if I already kissed that money goodbye.
242. Rage, rage against the fading of the light (citation required).
219
Lily allen
People who can’t be bothered to punctuate or split a message into paragraphs obviously can’t be arsed to make their message clear.
In fact, your message is a clear example of how not to post on a website.
You claim to be a student? Try reading “how to make friends and influence people”.
And stop whingeing.
248 - A Dylan Thomas reference I would have thought -
“Do not go gentle into that good night,
Old age should burn and rave at close of day;
Rage, rage against the dying of the light.” etc.
Plato, that’s uncalled for. There’s nothing wrong with plagiarism if the author permits it. I’m sure that would be the case here.
I thought students all had their own laptops these days.
Sad to see that the execution has gone ahead in China, though I am not surprised. The one thing that China reacts badly to is being told how it runs its country. Quiet diplomacy is the best way to deal with them.
In terms of international relations, there is one other issue that no one has picked up - State bond holdings. China is a huge purchaser of US bonds (I am not sure of the level of UK purchase/holding) as they are one of the few countries with money to spend and produce large amounts of savings on a yearly basis. It is simply not possible for many countries to fight China diplomatically since the withdrawal of their bond purchases could cause a sudden a rapid collapse in government finances.
231. barry December 29th, 2009 at 12:42 pm
“if you really take objection to what they have done, perhaps you could stop buying cheap (and often second rate) Chinese goods”
That’s underestimating the economic power of China. Look at expensive first-world brands and you’ll find that either the products themselves, or vital components in them, were made in China. For example, the battery in the Nokia mobile phone I’m posting from. (And probably the screen, and many other parts of the hardware, and possible some of the software, but certainly the battery which has a nice big “Made in China” on it.)
252
And no brains?
251
Lilly, been to the website I cited yet? Ready for a discussion about the relative merits of Labour and Conservative politicians? Only I will be going out soon to buy a printer for my (genuine) student daughter.
More results in from Mr Dale
http://iaindale.blogspot.com/2009/12/speech-slogan-pollster-of-year.html
245 The global warming scam is the biggest attempted con in world history - very important.
254
Too true. And many rare earths are only found in.. China..
Space race? Prius? Latest Intel processor?
http://www.wealthdaily.com/articles/rare-earth-metals-china/2150 - see the chart..
Does Lilly Allen remind anyone of the troll susanna?
On topic:
As a novice I only made three political-bets this year, and ended-up down £15. [Backing against Scottish teams in Europe helped eased the pain.]
Akmal Shaikh:
10 Rillington Place turned me off the death penalty for good. China - however - remembers The Opium Wars so he had no chance.
Cricket:
40-3; bye-bye Kallis. Could I make a nice packet on an England win to close the year off in style…?
SA in trouble… Kallis out for 4 clean bowled by Broad… 41-3
262 snap
244 - You appear to have missed off some quotes:
“”The positive increase of 17.92% this Sunday compared to the same Sunday last year can be seen as exceptional, given that the pre-Christmas build-up performance was a lot slower paced,” said Anita Sharma Manan, analyst at Experian.
“Worryingly, the recent surge of shoppers could be short-lived as we are now only days away from the imminent VAT increase on 1 January 2010 and sales which would have been made in 2010 are happening now, already bringing forward next year’s sales.”
[...]
Despite the signs of a strong Christmas trading period, shares in retailers fell slightly.
Next shed 0.3% and Home Retail Group, which owns Argos, fell 0.9%, while Marks and Spencer was also marginally lower. “
NPMP @ 191
So you don’t oppose state intrusiveness, to the point of execution, if someone appears not to be innocent, bearing in mind the obvious fact that the best of due processes sometimes gets the wrong conclusion?
I would have thought that “appears not to be innocent” is not exactly a reasonable description of any decent legal system. Mistakes are made, but you make it sound like people would be condemned on a mere rumour.
I am in two minds over capital punishment. Morally, I am in favour of it. If someone takes an innocent life, they deserve to die. Practically, the issue of miscarriages of justice are a big problem.
261. another richard: “261.Does Lilly Allen remind anyone of the troll susanna?”
Too early to tell.
’susanna’ was a tory.
254 I’m old enough to recall when ‘Made in Hong Kong’ was considered cheap and nasty [and probably covered in lead paint] - then it became ‘Made in Japan’, ‘Made in Taiwan’…and after many other iterations now - ‘Made in China’.
But then again, when I think of ‘Made in Hong Kong’, that was when children wore calipers, little old ladies went to the shops in slippers and pinnies, and flares were all the rage
258 - I assume the smilie is for:
“Pollster of the Year
1. YouGov
2. Angus Reid Strategies
3. ICM”
That’s a very high position for a relatively unproven pollster (no disrespect).
china rocks! I’m a sucker for beautiful women and they are generally stunning in Shangai. Breathtaking, literally!
Completely irrelevant but i reckons the inside of Lily Allen’s cloth’s wardrobe would be an accurate reflection of the inside of his/her mind.
261 “Lilly Allen” is just another po-faced humourless troll. But on here they stick out like chapel hat-pegs. Just point and laugh.
I have no doubt that Labour intends to overrun us with them. It’s probably a pre-election job-creation scheme.
269 You named that tune in one
susanna was not a Tory Gabble as well you know, she was the standard Labour troll who claimed to be an Independent with a fake back story but launced an attack on Conservatives in every post.
even the ugly chicks are sexy in Shangai: super-slender, long legs, honey skin — high-heels and sheer stockings.
The problem with the death penalty in the UK was I think summed up by of all people Pierrepoint, who was an absolute gent who took extraordinary pains to make the procedure as “pleasant” as possible.
“No-one wanted it for everyone, but no-one could agree upon who should get off.”
At least in China and the US, everyone knows where they stand.
£260.00 an hour! and she wants to be an MP.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1239189/Tory-candidate-Norsheen-Bhatti-260-hour-belly-dancer.html
Hmmm wonder what she’ll be charging to expenses.
272 What I find so strange is why ANY political party would send cyber-fodder to a site like this.
As you say, it’s just too easy to spot:
a) new contributor
b) party line spouting
c) diverting thread
d) using strange ‘line to take’ language
They’d be better off pretending to be UKIP supporters on ConHome.
Morning all.
On topic: I’d say nearly all of the bets which Mike lists were well worth a punt. I’m on some of the same ones, and, whilst we now know they they will be losers, I don’t feel that they were ones which in retrospect look foolish. You can’t win ‘em all, especially at 16/1 or 50/1.
Overall, I’ve had a very good year, well into four figure profits. One of conditions which She Who Must Be Obeyed attaches to my being granted an operating licence for political betting is that I produce quarterly P+L accounts, and all quarters have been profitable. Goodies included some nice trading on the ‘Brown and Out’ market on SPIN, the Irish referendum, quite good success on the various ‘What word will he use?’ markets, the McNulty expense reimbursement bet, Glasgow E, the Speaker market, Jacqui Smith’s resignation, the Irish budget, the local elections, and bets on Brown’s satisfaction ratings. The Euro elections were roughly neutral for me.
Losers include several of those listed by Mike - Nick Palmer is quite right when he says losses are often the result of “overestimating the probability of rapid change, especially Ministerial”. That’s an easy mistake to make, because it is human nature to bet for things happening rather than against them happening.
Looking forward to 2010: apart from the obvious one of the UK GE, it looks likely that there will be some very interesting stuff happening in Irish politics, which has the advantage (compared with other non-UK markets) that several bookies cover it. It would be great to have some threads dedicated to Irish politics.
275 - Bucket of water for M. Magnan please…
A good political betting year for me on bets already settled and ones to be settled on New Years Day.
My best bets/biggest winners were:
2010 election - best price 12/1 (in 2007/8)
Lisbon Treaty correct % band at 9/1.
Speaker Martin to resign 5/1.
Fred the Shred’s pension abatement 6/1.
Best bets in the locker are Greens to win Brighton at 9/2, “Were you up for Balls” at 7/2, Darling to be next Labour leader at 100/1, Labour seats 150-199 at 4/1 and most importantly of all a sizeable position on a Tory overall majority at average odds of about 8/11.
Worst bets were on Obama’s Inauguration Speech market and not winning on the next Speaker market despite backing Bercow at 8/1.
Lots of other losers too. Wish I’d followed Morus’ Ashton tip and that I had managed to get on the McNulty bet but overall very satisfactory although not as good as the previous two years.
De Villiers given out… gone upstairs for review… OUT!!
68
“Made in Hong Kong” was before flares, more drainpipes, if I recall.
Here is the news. 95% of the population dont give 2 hoots about Akmal Shaikh.
1) He was a pakistani immigrant. Many people were not happy with that to start with. Most people dont feel any obligation to a drug foreign drug smugger who suffers from ‘occaisional sadness syndrome’.
2) There are more important issues in the news. Like how was a nigerian muslim terrorist able to board a plane without a passport. Or how about the forgotten victims of illegal immigrant car drivers driving without license or insurance
Re Mr Dale’s most recent poll
http://iaindale.blogspot.com/2009/12/speech-slogan-pollster-of-year.html
I chose ‘the right thing to do’ as my most irritating soundbite - they all use it and frankly I wish they’d stop.
I’m quite happy to accept an argument that produces a ‘right’ result, but to be constantly lectured about what is ‘right’ on the basis of nothing but their opinion leaves me cold.
Politics and morality are poor bed fellows IMHO
282 WICKET 5 down Broad on a hatrick.
44/4: the smell of money….
Why does Billy Knowles update it’s website before Al-Beeb….
279 - One of conditions which She Who Must Be Obeyed attaches to my being granted an operating licence for political betting is that I produce quarterly P+L accounts, and all quarters have been profitable.
Why don’t you webcast those quarterly meetings.
I’m sure RELATE and GA would sponsor them.
Gabble:
“Shoppers have been flocking to the High Street over the Christmas weekend, with numbers far exceeding those from this time last year, figures have shown.”
“The number of shoppers out on Sunday, 27 December was 17.9% up on the same Sunday last year, said Experian, a research house that measures footfall.”
Sunday 27 December 2009 - First day of Christmas Sales.
Sunday 28 December 2008 - Second day of Christmas Sales.
Try to compare like with like in future Gabble.
Personal shopping anecdotes - less shoppers in town centres and shopping centres than previous post Christmas periods with a significantly sense of people going through the motions in attending Christmas Sales, there does seem to be less of an air of ‘the Joy of Consumption’ about. Supermarkets in particular less busy.
Perhaps my experiences are not the usual but I sense that January onwards is going to be hard for retailers.
Speaking of ‘money burning’, here are the top ten ridiculous uses for stimulus pork here in the US…
Top 10 Most Ridiculous Uses of Stimulus Funds
Morgen on December 28, 2009
“Putting Americans to work doing the work that America needs done“…
10. A $427,824 research grant to design better video games for senior citizens based on their unique “game-play needs”.
9. Funding of a Dartmouth College study involving “sexual arousal in anesthetized female rats” ($9,870).
8. Funding of a $168,300 SBA loan to the Escape Massage parlor in Midlothian, VA.
7. Funding a $447,492 Univ. of North Carolina study on the development and use of “African American English” amongst 70 adolescents.
6. $10,346 for a heating and cooling company to provide “escort services” for other companies performing a laser scanning survey at a courthouse in Honolulu, Hawaii.
5. An academic study comparing outcomes of the concurrent and separate use of malt liquor and marijuana ($389,357).
4. A $225,000 study at Ohio State University on the relative and combined impacts of air pollution and a high fat diet on obesity development.
3. A $712,883 research grant to develop “machine-generated humor“. Project will design artificially intelligent “comedic performance agents”, and will “deploy them both on and off-line for the enjoyment and illumination of everyday citizens”.
2. A $54 million project to relocate one bridge for the Napa Valley Wine Train (!) in order to mitigate the possible impact of a “100 year storm event”.
And the number one most ridiculous use of stimulus funds…
1. $9.3 million (!) to fund the design and development of a “coordinated colony of robotic bees“!
Our tax dollars hard at work, saving or creating jobs for mad scientists and masseurs everywhere. And I’m sure I’ve only scratched the surface with these.
Nick Clegg’s New Year message: “2010 must be the year we press the political reset button”
http://www.libdemvoice.org/nick-cleggs-new-year-message-2010-must-be-the-year-we-press-the-political-reset-button-17381.html
Plato has a problem and it is not ‘thinking’ . His problem is prejudice.
289. another richard: “Try to compare like with like in future Gabble.”
“On Boxing Day, the number of shoppers was up 18.5% on the same day in 2008.”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8433633.stm
292
Plato is the same sex as you.. Lily.
292. Back to the spaces after the full stop! Will they never learn not even after 12 years of education education education!!!!
293
And?
203. ICM poll suggests Greens will win in Brighton
Not surprising, Brighton’s a magnet for flakey people
292 - “It’s not fair and I think you’re really mean”?
289 My High St is dead - went to the bank at 1130 and no one was in there, the pavements had a dribble of people - Tesco’s was empty.
It was the same on Xmas Eve at the same time. David Roe said this was common in the retail sector according to his experience, I disagree with him on this one [a rare occurance]. In the last dozen yrs, my local shops have been heaving until the last minute/plagues of locusts clearing the shelves.
The bottom has dropped right out of my local market town.
I really hope it picks up - at least half of the available retail shop front space here is empty - and we’ve lost about another dozen long established businesses in the last 3 months.
These included two estate agents, a jewellers, two kids clothes shops, an office consumables outlet, a hi-fi specialist, 3x charity shops, a bookies, a travel agent and bookstore IIRC.
“You either believe in Universal Human Rights or you don’t.”
Universal human rights is a trojan horse used by closet totalitarians.
It openly and explicitly over-rides “their country - their rules” while covertly and implicitly over-riding “our country our rules”.
Whoever gets to decide what the universal rights are gets all the power.
And you’ll find the sort of people saying there should be universal human rights that over-ride soveriegnty, national democracy etc will also say those kind of decisions are too important to be left up to the average punter to vote on.
C*mmie stuff is always about using a vehicle to gain totalitarian power - the vehicle itself may not be a bad thing but the end result always is.
Smith out 6 down…. gone to review…. OUT
paul — it’s just a really under-rated dimension of the actual China. But you’re right, I shall move on…
293 Is it because the population has risen by 18.5% since last year?
Gabble
Oh yes, going shopping on Boxing Day. A practice that didn’t exist five years ago and is still a very marginal activity.
And the number of shoppers is irrelevant, its what they spend that counts.
Going to the Christmas Sales is a holiday activity similar to eating Turkey and listening to Slade and BandAid. People do it every year by rote, I’ve done it already and spent nothing but I’ll be going again later today.
Revealing also that you regard shopping as the sign of economic virility. Presumably the optimum shopping in your view is that spent on imported consumer tat and paid for with borrowed money.
I don’t recall seeing many links from you regarding debt figures, or industrial production or trade figures.
Smith out 50-6
All over today?
Looks like it’s heating up
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/dec/29/iran-arrests-prominent-activists-relatives
290. Tim B. Bees pollinate stuff and as we eat stuff that has been pollinated, or things that feed on stuff that has been pollinated, are rather important. They are also dying out at an alarming rate in some parts of the world, so a robotic substitute might be rather a good thing to have.
$712,883 research grant to develop “machine-generated humor“ - a bargain if it works. It can’t be less funny than Jonathan Ross who gets £6 million a year from the BBC.
You could probably save a dollar or two by combining 5. An academic study comparing outcomes of the concurrent and separate use of malt liquor and marijuana ($389,357) with 9. Funding of a Dartmouth College study involving “sexual arousal in anesthetized female rats” ($9,870).
Plato
“In the last dozen yrs, my local shops have been heaving until the last minute/plagues of locusts clearing the shelves.”
My experience as well.
Until this year.
Supermarkets still had plenty of stuff in on Christmas Eve and yesturday my local Asda (which didn’t open on Boxing Day) was selling milk at 1p per litre. A shop assistant there told me it had been very quiet all day.
304 Revealing also that you regard shopping as the sign of economic virility
Not so much economic virility but it is seen as an indicator of the mood of the country - if people stay away from the stores it is seen as a sign of economic pessimism or insecurity, and if the malls are mobbed it is seen as a sign of economic optimism.
Is it a good indicator? - I have no idea.
Tim B
That might be true for most of the year but not at Christmas.
Going to the Christmas Sales is something you do by tradition and a nice warm shopping centre has its allure when the weather is cold and you need a break from family/presents/food/pb.
304. another richard
You tories really hate good news, don’t you?
The UK has a large retail sector and most normal people will welcome the fact that footfall on our high streets has increased since last year.
307 - Mr Ross’s talents have always escaped me, likewise Graham Norton.
I was somewhat dismayed to see that Mr Ross’s program is on BBC America. This is more than compensated for by the number of Top Gear repeats however
312, have you seen the Bolivia special yet?
Gabble - I agree with your general observation re miserable Tories but would add a rider.
Currently I am spend,spend,spending like Viv Nicholson in the belief that at some point, cash will cease to have much value.
312 - not yet. They keep recycling old episodes along with the new - we had the winter olympics again last week. My dvr records them and every couple of weeks I’ll watch 2 or 3 in a row, skipping thru the commericals.
311 Conservatives love good news. They dispise lies, smokescreens and propaganda.
Shopping evidence would seem very mixed at best - personally my local supermarket was rather busy when I ventured out a couple of days after Christmas, however other family members report almost empty shops at their location.
There does, however, seem to be a rash of stories in the papers lately about ‘record’ sales, which appear totally counter intuitive to a great deal of observational evidence, and the recent poor retail data for November.
As for people walking blindly into Tory futures and such like…… boo freakin hoo, don’t screw the country over if you don’t want to be booted out on your backsides. Oh, and try not to elect a misfit freak with behavioural and truth problems as your leader. An oh-so-earnest whinger perhaps, or a privately educated, stinking rich champagne socialist like Benn?
Plato,
Agree re the shopping: went to Brent X the Saturday before Xmas. Normally it takes ages just to get into the car park. Not this time: found a space near the door, did all my shopping in an hour and got a definite sense that fewer people about. Same in HMV. If that’s what it was like beforehand, I doubt that it’ll be any better now. I’m certainly closing my wallet for January.
308 yesturday (sic) my local Asda (which didn’t open on Boxing Day) was selling milk at 1p per litre. A shop assistant there told me it had been very quiet all day.
- milk is usually fairly quiet
315, ’tis most enjoyable. I think it’s the most serious challenge they’ve faced.
312 Mr Ross is a symptom of what is wrong with Britain today.
A talentless, undeserving cable feeding the people rubbish and paying each other millions from under our very nose.
Mr Ross has ridden in on the coat tails of Labour. When the Conservatives restore the meritocracy, there will be no room for connected empty suits.
310 I agree and disagree with your analysis.
I’m part of the can’t-shop constituency who would have normally had a walk about and picked up a few bits to relieve the boredom.
I totted up my spending on Christmas and it’s puny compared with my previous excesses - only about £130 on pressies and an extra £50 on drinkies/food.
When I look at how my shopping habits have changed over the last year - its really striking. Virtually no take-aways, lots of sell-by date near misses, ‘value’ brands, no soft drinks or premium bakery items - and plonk I’d previously think was only suitable for cooking with.
2010 is going to be another hard year - what the Tories will do if they get in is going to hurt even more - and I’d rather they sort it out sooner rather than later…
I’m very partial to living high on the hog and this return to student eating habits is very
321 in a society that gorges itself on reality trash, vacuous bimbos with footballer husbands, soap operas dealing in misery and fame for fame’s sake, Jonathon Ross is a natural megastar.
Half the morons in this country would happily let you kick them in the head if they were able to text in a vote for what kind of boots you wear to do it.
Bah Humbug
“160.On topic, the common factor seems to me overestimating the probability of rapid change”
I think this is very true generally. You might see a trend and expect to see something surface in a year or so but it ends up taking ten instead. It’s like Baroness £175,000 - she may have undeservedly survived but it’s an albatross round her neck that will drag her down eventually.
Just been told the BNP are driving their ‘punish the pigs, vote BNP’ van around North West Leicestershire. Very inappropriate.
306 “Looks like it’s heating up http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/dec/29/iran-arrests-prominent-activists-relatives”
Indeed.
It looks like the Islamic hardliners are pushing Iran to civil war.
The mood seems to have changed. Protester were initially peacefull - but were met with murders, arrests (inc prison rapes) and disappearances.
The protesters look like they are up for a fight. Seems they started overwhelming basij and taking their weapons. It is a snowball that is rolling.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worldnews/article-1238717/Thousands-Iranian-protesters-clash-riot-police-bloody-pitched-battle-streets-Tehran.html
325 Why? Is it a Labour area?
Is it inappropriate to call Labour ‘pigs’? They certainlyt have had their noses in the trough.
“A woman made an emergency 999 call to Greater Manchester Police (GMP) to say her cat was “doing her head in” because it was playing with string.”
She needs to come round to my house - I have 30 that require ASBOs.
So far this week, they have broken 2x antique ceramic dishes/statues, a vase of flowers, two mugs, the only Christmas decoration I dared put out…oh and stolen a chicken carcass/dragging in around the house before making a getaway through the cat-flap.
*considers living in a tent and letting them get on with it…*
320 - I shall look out for it….
Showing my age here, when I saw the word ‘Bolivia’, what flashed immediately into my mind was Sundance turning to Butch and asking “What’s ‘Bolivia’?”
When you tell people it’s a car program they get all MEGO. When they see it they always enjoy it, although like me they have no idea who the ’star in the reasonably priced car’ is most of the time.
319. But when its spilt there’s usually some pointless crying.
328 forgot the linky
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/manchester/8433783.stm
325 Thanks, Woody. (Got your email, btw.)
Not exactly smart tactics from the BNP. Conservatives probably value at 2/5 in NW Leicester now, but we’re not going to get rich at those odds.
Fair Along at 22/1 in the next at Newbury might be worth a try though!
329 Me too.
The BBC is laughable on this chinese execution.
They look at chinese websites and say the comments are supportive!
What a surprise!!! There was me thinking they would be in universal outrage!!! (Mock Sarcasim)
Then they interview a bloke who says that China were getting their revenge for the Op1m1um wars! That is as bad as Labour going on about the Tories in the the 1950’s!
What puzzles me is Labour are great at sh@fting the British Public but seem completly 1mp0t€nt at sh@fting other countries!
327. 3 days after the death of the MP, I’d say it was very inappropriate!!
328. Plato December 29th, 2009 at 2:17 pm
Didn’t a Lib Dem MP call 999 to turn a boiler off last year in London?!
332 PtP - FA is 33-1 on the ‘Fair.
Off-topic:
Just topped-up on the cricket. 6/1 for the draw covers all betting positions previously made. Only hope England don’t lose it from here…!
Thought this was rather amusing given the current prevailing weather
http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/snowfalls-are-now-just-a-thing-of-the-past-724017.html
Read the comment left under this for a chortle
336, Lynne Featherstone, I think.
335. woody662 December 29th, 2009 at 2:21 pm
Yes but the BNP are hated anyway by about 50% of voters so they wont be bothered. Tactically for the BNP it makes sense to get going early - the MP sad though it is he died was standing down anyway. I would not expect Tories to start campaigning so early, the lib dems have been known to but i doubt in this seat they will be bother especially over xmas. Now if it had been a Lib Dem target…….
335 I would say you should grow some shoulders and not have hissy fits.
Labour are pigs and must be booted out.
More, they should never be permitted to damage Britain again.
340. Morris Dancer December 29th, 2009 at 2:25 pm
Thats the one - she is quite S€xy!
“Setback for Cameron as Labour regains poll lead in the north”
“The Tories have seen a reversal of fortunes in the north of England after a political Indian summer in which they appeared to have overtaken Labour in the opinion polls in the region.
The news will be welcomed by Labour strategists who believe that recent policy announcements and speeches will reinforce the party’s “core vote” among working class voters.”
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/08475a26-f41a-11de-ac55-00144feab49a.html
Gabble
I’m not a Tory, I’m a Labour hater. Different things.
And I don’t regard people buying imported goods with borrowed money as good news. It is this mentality that has got the country in the mess it is in.
With the possible exception of tourists shopping in central London retail spending creates no wealth for this country.
Anyway I’m off shopping now so I’ll give you a report later. As I live within my means I’m in the pleasurable situation of being able to buy things without worrying if I can afford them.
337 Yes, URW, but the value is in the place part - 9/2 to finish third is pretty good and there’s always the chance of a turn up.
334 Why should the mighty Chineses worry about wimpers from the dying regime of a minor EU region?
‘Irrelevent’ doesnt even cover it. Add ‘Impotence’ & ‘Hypocritical’ and you get a better picture.
343, Mr. Day, you’re quite welcome to her. Not my type.
344. Gabble December 29th, 2009 at 2:27 pm
I actually think Gordon Brown was a lunitic not going to the polls by the end of 2009. The VAT rise is going to hit everybody hard on the first January 2010 due to Petrol/diesal being taxed. I would look at any shift to labour as being an “indian summer” in the north. The VAT rise will hit C1/C2 IMO and will help Cameron to win the GE.
Interestingly this resuption of VAT to 17.5% also torpedo Labour campaigning on any change to VAT under a Tory Government. Indeed the Tories could simply say they would reduce duty on Petrol/Diesal due to the punitave cost to motorists.
*** BETTING EXPERIMENT ***
Not everyone will like this very strong tip and JackW/tim will hate it.
Take 7-2 with Victor Chandler LIB DEM Seats 40-49 inclusive.
The ‘experiment’ is to see whether the price is still there in 24 hours.
by URW December 29th, 2009 at 6:32 am
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Now 5-2 ! Who got on ?
346.337 Yes, URW, but the value is in the place part - 9/2 to finish third is pretty good and there’s always the chance of a turn up.
by Peter the Punter December 29th, 2009 at 2:28 pm
I ‘old me ‘ands up, PtP. Great ew bet. Off in two minutes.
350 URW
My impression is that VC do not have a proper politics man, so just knee-jerk react to any bet placed.
I think Mandelson is Laughable on this:
http://women.timesonline.co.uk/tol/life_and_style/women/families/article6969872.ece
What the hell does he know about young graduates other than ones from Brazil?!!!
Seriously he has no children of his own, his government has created 5 million unemployed and now he says that parents should pubnishg their kids because they cannot find work.
178. another richard: From the FT: “Britain’s economy grew more slowly in each year of the noughties than it did in any other decade since the war.”
Thanks.
“There has been no ‘boom’ and there will be no ‘bust’.
Just 11 years of moderate growth to be followed by a relatively short period of moderate recession.”
(352 - Peter, Are you around? Would love an end of year chat sometime. Tried to call earlier but no response).
100. “People only get the death sentence when they do something horrific - even in China.”
I’d have hoped that one thing we can all agree on is that the last part of that statement is demonstrably untrue. Even leaving aside the horrors of what happened last night, China regularly executes people for non-violent crimes, such as financial offences and corruption. Surely nobody in this country would support that?
#354, by Gabble December 29th, 2009 at 2:42 pm
Serious question Gabble: How old are you and in which field are you professionally qualified…?
354. Gabble December 29th, 2009 at 2:42 pm
Given the amount of Immigration, the poor growth of the economy under Labour and now the worst recession since the 1930’s Labour have certainly cemented themselves in as the party with the worse economic record! Then there is the 5 Million unemployed Jobseekers allowance plus Employment and support allowance. Emplloyment and Support allowance was stealthily brought in late in 2008 to try and mitigate the numbers on jobseekers allowance. They are still unemployed just re-classified.
208 Easterross well said. So our Labour Govt protests how one super power China, kills an alleged mentally ill Brit (no medical assessment) caught smuggling heroin yet, it feels it is ok to extradite a validly medically assessed mentally ill Brit, to the notorious prison system of the super power USA, because he tried looking in computer files for aliens.
Are there really so few of us who see the position of the Labour Govt as just ludicrous?
The next time a member of the Govt pops up condemning China it is about time our supine media asks about Gary Mckinnon.
The deepest recession since WW2 is moderate?!
344 - A few more pieces from that article you seem to have missed out…
“Andrew Cooper, founder of Populus, the polling company, said it made sense that Labour would have surged in the north given the narrowing of the gap between the two main parties in the past two months.
But Mr Cooper sounded a note of caution about the prospect of a wholesale Labour recovery, pointing out that the party’s increase in the polls, from below 25 per cent to nearly 30 per cent, still put it at a similar level to John Major ahead of his catastrophic defeat in 1997.
“They have put themselves back into the game with their core vote strategy,” he said. “They can’t win with this strategy, they can lose more manageably.”
“In October, the Tories were riding high, the overall narrative was very much in their favour, it seemed there was at least a chance of them doing something amazing like turning the north blue,” said Martin Boon, a pollster from ICM. “It has fallen back in terms of our latest poll.”"
Just to add that the North on ICM regional splits includes Scotland which has been an area of some conjecture on PB.com as to the level of Labour support.
I will also just plug http://regionalpollsuk.blogspot.com/ which I am keeping up to date with ICM at the moment. I may add other pollsters soon depending on time. As you can see from this since 2007 the Tories have gone into a lead on a few occasions only in the North. When you compare that with the Midlands (inc. Wales) and the South, then the performance is certainly poorer. As the Midlands tends to be marginal-central, I suspect that the North (whilst important) is not key.
188 - is this more money being spent or just a reannouncement?
With Labour you can never be sure.
354. Gabble.
What bollocks. The FT have managed to average boom and bust to give small growth.
355 John O - Will give you a ring when racing finished.
360 - Don’t bother David. Apparently the longest recession in Post-War Britain, some of the fastest rising unemployment rates in history and so on is not that bad. Even the govt accept it has been awful. One of the rare moments of honesty from Darling.
364 - Hi Peter - Thanks. But I’ll be out in about 30 mins. Should I give you a buzz tomorrow sometime. Apols to others for thread disruption, though mainly it’s only the risible Denis MacGabble)
So we’ve had low growth, accompanied by an unsustainable house price bubble leading to financial collapse and the deepest recession since WW2.
Wow. What a magnificent achievement. No wonder you are proud, Gabble.
359. Of course, the government have treated Gary McKinnon absolutely shamefully. I think that’s what made me so pleasantly surprised last night at the robustness of the rebuke to China. But of course the reason for the difference is obvious - the government don’t have a teenage crush on China.
359 He was hardly a ‘Brit’ as you say. The IRA dont like ‘Brits’. I doubt they have an opinion on him.
Pakistani immigrant with British Passport. Much more accurate.
366 Whenever, John, but I’m off to sunny Spain for a week on NYE so don’t leave it too long.
361 SL Nick - Excellent stuff. That is a good summary of the state of play.
Had a good run with Fair Along,PtP. “No blame.” as the I Ching puts it.
A cut from 7-2 to 5-2 suggests that they haven’t a clue at VC.
Only bets this year already paid out, calling all the Scottish by elections right.
Now if Gordon Brown would step down before the GE leaving Jack Straw to step into the vacant job….
223-Boo hoo hoo!
354: short period of moderate recession
Go away, look at the annualised GDP figures and come back later.
Afternoon All,
277. Coldstone.
Hmmm wonder what she’ll be charging to expenses.
As no one else has bitten and I’m bored as hell (although Morus’s contributions today were quite amusing), I think we should ask an old hand in the entertainment industry to answer your question. What about Glenda Jackson?
Perhaps the dailys might dig this old nugget up as well?
http://newportcity.blogspot.com/2009/05/glenda-jackson-dubious-acting-and.html
What did Glenda earn in her entertainment career and whats this about her expenses (not to mention that photo is an actual still from one of her movies)? How could she have been tolerated in her second career for so long?
I think your post evokes thoughts such as ‘people’, ‘fragile glass houses’ and ‘throwing stones’? Or perhaps ‘anything Labour squeal about, they have done thrice over’?
Incidentally has ole Glenda announced she is standing down yet or not?
And yes I know the website linked is as trashy as the newspapers you prefer to refer to but hey that’s 21st century politics for you….
372. “Only bets this year already paid out, calling all the Scottish by elections right.”
????
There was only one.
368.James Kelly December 29th, 2009 at 2:52 pm
Gary Mckinnon is also white!
I noticed another of media articles involving the British government “sticking up” for south asian folk. It is all about Labour getting that vote out - indeed the foriegn aid Brown keeps announcing to south asian countries is part of this strategy. Shame the BNP dont campaign on this as it would stop Labour doing it - Lets be frank neither the Tories or Lib Dems will campaign on it because they cannot due to what Labour will call them.
Personally i think the country has moved on and many folk think immigrants have it too easy.
369 ken wasabi. A Brit is in my eyes someone with a British passport whatever their skin tone or class.
356 - James, I will certainly agree with that. China does seem to execute people far more readily than other countries with the death penalty. What always holds me back from serious support from the death penalty is that is undoable. If you get it wrong (and Justice systems can get it wrong) you can’t undo it.
URW
Well that didn’t exactly go according to plan.
Fair Along is usually the most reliable of animals, but not his day. I did however manage to lay off the win part of the ew bet, so not much damage done.
In an effort to redeem my tattered reputation, I’ll suggest Dr Pat in the 3.15. It’s only 2/1 but value at that, I think. I saw it win at Sandown over a distance plainly too short for it. Connections were I think taken by surprise. It looks a very good horse and one bound for The Festival.
377. Martin, for your own sake, don’t start going down that road again, please…
328.Plato, no turkey stock this Christmas for soup in our house, the cats got at the carcass in a truly military style operation.
The problem with the unequal treatment of Gary Mckinnon by the Labour Govt is the way it stokes up the racists. The BNP could only flourish under Labour.
When does mental illness not really matter to to a Labour Govt when that someone is subject to a foreign govt’s law?
381. James Kelly December 29th, 2009 at 2:58 pm
Just saying - thats all i will say: The media stories were their and it seemed coordinated.
371 - URW. Regional samples as one-offs are poor judgement areas. What can be of some worth is the trends. What the polls struggle with is that on a UK basis they are Tory-Labour comparisons for who will win the election. So in Scotland Labour is substantially ahead of the Tories, yet in the North we have some more varied evidence. If the sub-samples for those who split out Scotland were larger we could make a more educated guess as to the state of play. Our only real evidence is the YouGov/Telegraph marginals poll which showed the opposite of the FT article. I would be helpful if there were much more regular larger sample polls for each of the regions.
The iranian protests continue to rumble on. I suspect they may succeed.
One thing is certain, the Islamic hardliners are capable enough to crush them without losing sleep. But Persian people have a certain energy about them. They are a sophisticated people with a noble history.
368-Yes, but he’s also been lionised by the anti-American left (not only by them though) for having embarassed the Bush administration. This is what makes me most suspicioous about the case.
Unlike others, I do not believe being gaga should be an excuse.
356-Surely nobody in this country would support that?
Say, second/third time you thieve you get your hand cut off would meet with my approval.
NEW THREAD UP
376.James, I am not much of punter, it feels like its only been over the last year because there were a few of them. Does it matter??
385/361. A ideal job for the Kalman filter. Can you keep the data in an excel file or google doc spreadsheet?
390 - Rod, I have it in OpenOffice format (free software). If you want my email address, then feel free to contact Mike. I will happily release it to you so that we can get in touch and I will send it over. On the flip side, do you have the polling details back to 2007 for the other pollsters so that I can set it up to cover the other regionals.
288 tim - No, they’d be very boring, based on experience to date.
Of course, things could be different if Dave fluffs it at the GE. I’d have a lot of explaining to do…
Say, second/third time you thieve you get your hand cut off would meet with my approval.
You scroll up from the bottom on the mofuse site. Needless to say I’d identified this as a Peter2′ post long before the name appeared. Sure you’d not be happier in a Sharia country Peter?