Now the election for the PB Betting Tipster of 2009
December 30th, 2009Voting starts immediately and will continue until 10am on New Year’s Day.
Please note that the modestly titled “The Twin Towers” is a join entry from two of the site’s leading gamblers who have similar user names.
My vote has gone to Morus (Greg Callus) for his 50/1 Cathy Ashton tip. Greg is one of the sites guest editors and the editor of the newly published “Total Politics Guide to the General Election”.
Mike Smithson
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Yan?
A happy new year to you all when it comes.
ON-topic: Morus, surely.
OFF-topic, fpt:
258. Relatedly, here’s my Christmas vox pop round up of British political opinion.
WARNING: INCOMING ANECDOTES, TAKE COVER
In the last few weeks I have socialised and mingled in lower middle class Kent, the haute bourgeois Home Counties, bohemian parts of the West End, notably lefty Camden, suburban Bristol, and all parts of Cornwall from posh Tory corners to working class holdouts. I’ve also bean leafletting with the Mebyon Kernow PPC for Truro.
My sense from all this is of a country (at least England) that is dejected by Labour. They don’t quite hate Labour as much as they hated the Tories in 1997, but they do find the government risible, pathetic and depressing, and some (left and right) have a deep personal loathing for Brown.
I sense that the Tories will win because Labour are rejected and reviled. Cameron is certainly not loved, he’s not even especially liked. Many people don’t care about the Tories. They just want Labour gone.
All very predictable.
However the more surprising upshot of my one man straw polling campaign is the widespread contempt for the whole Global Warming/Climate Change eco-hysterical agenda.
People on the left and right said to me - unprompted - how shocked they were by the email scandal, how suspicious they were of the AGW thesis, how they were tired of being lectured and hectored by rich “green” nitwits.
I did not encounter a single person who *cares* about environmental issues in a positive way, I did not meet a single person who “believes” in AGW. Some, as I say, were openly contemptuous. Left and right.
I must say this surprised me. The political classes are obsessed with man made climate change. Yet no one I have recently talked with is convinced it is even happening - as far as I can tell.
Was I just very unlucky in who I met? Or do the polls, which show green issues way down the list of priorities, reveal a truth?
If my hunch is correct Cameron would do well to back away from his windmill-erecting, husky-hugging bollocks. Only Guardianistas *care* about this. The country as a whole does not; and some voters are quietly but seriously hostile.
Voted for the Twin Towers, purely going on the “tipster” part of the title. But URW is still the top dog among posters who concentrate on betting.
Morris Dancer for me - those F1 tips and analysis were real eye-openers and got me interested again.
Morris Dancer: just 4 votes behind the leaders
5, did you back any/many of them?
I’m not sure who to vote for (except that I’m not going to back myself).
Surely Roger should be just for the Oscars and not his political tips (Obama….)?
I suspect he won’t get it because he obviously doesn’t care two hoots for the opinion of most people. But if this is a vote on quality rather than a vote on popularity, URW should win this.
(This is not to belittle the very substantial contributions of the other finalists, many of which have helped to enrich the antifrankian coffers this year).
Finally, season’s greetings to the pb tennis tipster par excellence, HenryGManson.
How can anyone not vote for Morus?
His tip of Ashton was an epic long distance punt - the equivalent of Ron Radford’s goal for non-league Hereford United versus Newcastle, in 1971.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z-ze42I6NEo
I supported Hereford as a lad. That goal still gives me the shivers.
3-Good to see the proles could see that their betters were lying to them. Despite the little coverage given to the e-mail scandal on the BBC, etc.
I do notice, happily, a slightly more sceptical view from the Economist on the issue in recent weeks.
If Richard Nabavi wins this one, too, he’ll become a one-man Twin Tower.
Listened (as is my wont) to the BBC World Service this morning and heard a topic on the US and English editions of the OED, and what new words they added this year. The best English one - a word I’ve never heard - is ’simples’. The US one - or actually 3 all about Obama - included Obamarama and Obamanation.
They also mentioned the Brown New Years message and went on about the fragile recovery, and how it’s a webcast - sounds gruesome
12, he’ll have to go some to beat his hostage/70s sci-fi effort.
“If my hunch is correct Cameron would do well to back away from his windmill-erecting, husky-hugging bollocks. Only Guardianistas *care* about this. The country as a whole does not; and some voters are quietly but seriously hostile.”
True.
Is there any issue that does concern people but in which the political establishment shows no interest?
The World at One had an MP,( cant remember who it was as I only heard the headline bit), chuntering on about how Brown should pass on the baton..
Who tipped ‘Afghanistan’ at 5/1 in the Queen’s Speech?
I made £50 on that.
15 - he’s more likely to drop it….
3. You should write a thread on that. Certainly the “greening” of major brands during the recession doesn’t back it up though they may just be out of touch. What i would say though is that decarbonisation
- is an elite project and I’ve no doubt that the elite is now way out in front of many people.
- has completely elbowed out many other worthy development issues which can rankle
- has in some cases moved into dystopian/apocalyptic/religious territory and we are all a bit more used to the CoE.
- has become very abstract and existential and difficult to relate to
- is entirely couched in terms of saving the ” Planet ” rather than helping people
- has reached the psychologically difficult point where by it requires personal pain rather than merely being in favour of it.
- Is seen as being universally “True” thus provoking a massive back lash.
- runs against everyday experience in the West. It doesn’t feel any warmer.
In Psychotheraputic terms we’ve reached the “resistance” stage in the relationship with the societal shift. It could go either way as it does in therapy.
So what to do?
14 - Planning laws. Road maintenance. Traffic safety. Public transport systems.
16 - wibbler IIRC - and I made the same.
There’s no doubt in my mind that the tip of the year was Morus’s one on Baroness Ashton. (Pity I ignored it…). It’s hard to compare that with the series of posts which contain shrewd assessments of odds from the Twin Towers, URW and others.
On balance, I’m going for Morus, on the basis that ‘Tipster of the Year’ really should mean the person who gives the best tips, rather than general betting advice and noticing mispriced markets, invaluable and profitable though those are.
Didn’t PtP predict the Grand National correctly?
One of the Twin Towers recommended a horse at - IIRC - Lincoln (2:40) yesterday. Not able to distinguish a nag from a troughing Labour MP I followed the advice, and had a £5-EW bet. Sod-’em I say!
So I voted for the most erudite and informed political tipster on PoliticalBetting: MR URW. [Oi, if I am already in your black-book please do not erase me from it.
]
I like the old-geezer’s opinions. My political betting - small though it is - is formed around interpretating his comments.
His judgement of posters should be reconsidered. [Farmer 'Tupac as PotY is the most crass prediction!] Oh, lest I forget, his Zionist-rants are *pop-corn*!
14. The effects of the “Night Time Economy”.
3 - The real concern is that people react to this without any admission that they haven’t got a clue. A fraction of one percent could talk about climate change with any authority and yet we are bombarded with opinions from all sides based on little more than a hunch or a partisan hope.
These people are reflecting the ignorance of the nation as a whole where it’s easy to just tune it out. My hope is that the debate actually gets people to tune in to make an informed decision, at the moment all they are doing is giving an uninformed decision based on what people with an agenda tell them.
3. That is also my experience.
I’m surrounded by farmers and they say - yup it’s been mild for a few years and now it’s been effing freezing for a while too - it goes in cycles and it’s nothing new or scary.
For those who are interested in the meteorology - there’s strong downspike [looks like a record low is coming] in the Arctic Oscillation Index and the North Atlantic Oscillation Index is also negative.
That means its going to be really cold - if we’re lucky - it will also be sunny
I duly voted for the Twin Towers because I believe Peter from Putney is the most sincere political tipster on here and because Peter the Punter tipped a 7-3 winer for me yesterday - I’m that shallow !
Morus is *not* a political tipster but he came up trumps with the outstanding bet of the year.
Richard Nabavi is just sheer excellence all round and if he hadn’t lifted POTY I would have considered voting for him.
antifrank is the most improved political tipster on here. He is increasingly sharp and focussed but doesn’t appear on the list. Sadly, nor does tim, who tipped the Greens in Shadsy’s handicap on the Euros.
18-Has reached the point where sceptics are screamed at as deniers (thus rhyming nicely with hоlосаust denier).
-Has created its own industry.
etc
FPT250. “The Greens are nasty authoritarian fascists. I loathe them.”
Mike, you’ve said that before and it’s just not true. They’re nasty authoritarian communists.
27 URW - Yes, both antifrank and tim should definitely have honourable mentions.
Just you. I thought your offer to use PB2 was inspired and its really opened up that channel to lots of other posters with niche/expert knowledge.
Never seen anyone predict the results so well - I listened to the R5 F1 coverage assiduously [as I can't be fagged to turn it off] and their commentators have less idea than you do which is perverse!
25. This is simply not true, and it is also patronising, and this patronising tone is another reason people are rejecting the eco-hysterical “religion”.
As I said, much of the hostility I encountered to the AGW agenda came, unprompted, from leftwingers. Some of my most loyal Labourite friends (the ones who STILL support Labour!) were the most vitriolically sarcastic about “climate change”.
And one of these guys is a smart physics graduate of UCL who works in advanced IT. He is not stupid, he is scientifically very literate; he believes much of the AGW science is bollocks.
Perhaps he is just a clueless pleb too? Tsk.
32 Sean - How old were the members of your polling panel? I think views on this might well vary a lot according to age.
YS
I don’t know if anyone else has noticed this but there seems recently to have been a rash of juice bars and milkshake cafes opening in shopping areas. Selling things at about 5 times the price they would cost in a supermarket.
Is this a last gasp of pointless consumerism or could they have spotted that people have now maxed out on possessions and are willing to spend spare money on instant gratification lifestyle drinks?
One of the milkshake cafes I’ve seen was offering 10% discounts not just to the usual students but also to those in the armed services, emergency services and NHS. Never seen that before and while letting soldiers and students have things a little cheaper doesn’t worry me the thought that the others, especially a £100K pa doctor, can is annoying.
3. I think there are two aspects to the politics of it. the first I’ve posted about before. There is a gap in the market for respectable Climate Sceptism. I wonder if David Davis hasn’t already dipped a toe in the water. But the obvious new market player would be a proffesionally run UKIP.
shadsy deserves some credit as he priced up Lady Ashton as a 50/1 shot when I asked him for a price for her. He previously didn’t have her listed.
18. People ARE supportive of the recycling/we-waste-too-much agenda. It’s just common sense. We will run out of fossil fuels eventually, and yes these fuels are quite polluting, anyway.
No one denies all this, and you could build a sensible “pale green” policy based on this consensus.
But the eco-nutters are determined to prove that humanity is going to burn for its sins, and anyone who “denies” this revelation must be publicly flailed as a heathen. It’s idiotic and distasteful.
31, that surprises me (I don’t listen to the radio so have no idea how good/bad the coverage is).
If it’s anything like TV they always have one clever chap (Brundle) and one cock (now Leggard).
Next season could be really difficult though. The absence of refuelling takes away my principle reason for backing/laying drivers and teams, and makes it tricky to see beyond the grid being roughly as it is at the start. I may well start looking at qualifying.
I’ve voted for URW.
More on general betting information than tips.
The problem with tips is that people tend to remember the winners more than the losers.
Perhaps the site should have an official page where people can have the tips they make recorded for public viewing?
33. Fair question: the ages ranged from early 30s to late 70s. Perhaps idealistic 20-somethings would reveal more passion or credulity on green issues.
The only younger people I encountered were my niece and nephew, who are 18 and 15. However the 18 year old is about to go backpacking around the world on polluting airplanes for her gap year, and is very excited about it, so I wouldn’t say she is exactly Monbiotic.
35 YS a professionally run UKIP.
That’s not the current UKIP, then:
At other moments, he [Lord Pearson] just sounds rather terrifyingly like the major in Fawlty Towers and he concedes: ‘I am a sort of loony…’
..
Pearson was elected to office when former UKIP leader Nigel Farage, who is also a member of the European Parliament for the South-East, resigned in September to concentrate on his efforts to become an MP at Westminster.
‘He is a Derby winner and I am a carthorse who puts his hooves in it sometimes, I’m afraid,’ says Pearson.
‘Be careful what you are saying, darling,’ calls his wife.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-1239030/JAN-MOIR-talks-Baron-Pearson-Rannoch-gloriously-eccentric-accident-prone-new-head-UKIP.html
YS
“is an elite project and I’ve no doubt that the elite is now way out in front of many people.”
And of course the elite - Gore, Cameron, Miliband Jnr etc - will not be the ones who are inconvenienced, financially or otherwise.
This probably links to general resentment over the economy, immigration and other general changes in society.
The feeling that ‘they’ take the benefits while ‘we’ pay the price.
9,seant,also I loved the fans in those days with they parkers
40. Speaking as an idealistic 20-something, most people I know think about climate change the way they do malaria in Africa. They might be motivated to furrow their brow about it if put on the spot, but by and large it’s irrelevant. Which more or less mirrors my own laissez-faire attitude.
37
Perhaps the stupidest remarks are those about moving on from a “carbon based” economy…
Obviously many greens think that steel , concrete and food are produced miraculously without any carbon input? Or that humans are not made of carbon and water?
40 Also the under 25s have been greenwashed at school for many years.
I find it astonishing and really quite sinister that Al Gore’s An Inconvenient Truth is shown in schools at all.
It is nothing less than wallet-filling propaganda for carbon-credit/green industry propotents like Mr Gore himself.
The fact that a UK court identified 9 material inaccuracies/exaggerations in it should enough to stop it - but no.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/education/7037671.stm
The ‘Bedtime Stories’ fear cartoons were the lowest of the low IMO.
32 - When people don’t know that they don’t know it’s a problem, it’s why there is such a patronising attitude to those who work in this area, as though everyone knows as much as they do. The quasi religious fervour of the anti’s as well as the pro’s is pretty much the same as well.
On the actual qualifications, physics is just one area of expertise needed to be a climatologist alongside others such as biology, meterology, geology, botany, zoology etc. Very few people will be able to address this knowledgeably.
22 It was last year, Richard - Comply Or Die.
This year I gave Black Apalachi, which was running a stormer when it unseated Denis O’Regan at Becher’s second time round.
Usual very high standard for the PB Tipster Of The Year Competition. I trust that with no JackW in the field the likelihood of vote-rigging is considerably reduced, although I shall nevertheless be inspecting the Register after the result is announced. I understand Stuart Dickson will be keeping it safe in his Glenrothes hideaway.
Hard to know who to vote for, such is the range and quality on offer. The Svelt Morus certainly deserves recognition for his Ashton tip, but I suspect it was a lucky shot in the dark from somebody who would normally struggle to fill in a betting slip. URW is alright, but can you really trust somebody who is a refugee from The Betfair Forum? Morris’s F1 tips were outstanding, but I just can’t stand the smell of oil and petrol.
So, I guess it has to be my old friend and value-seeker, Peter from Putney, who can sniff out a winner better than a pig after truffles.
Yes, it’s The Twin Towers for me!
I’ve been modded at 46 - no idea why
45 I heard Caroline Lucas on R4 the other day advocating a zero carbon world.
Clearly she’s unfamiliar with organic chemistry
“Organic Chemistry is a discipline within chemistry that involves the scientific study of the structure, properties, composition, reactions, and preparation (by synthesis or by other means) of hydrocarbons and their derivatives [oh dear - the living world is now doomed by Greenies].
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Organic_chemistry
29. “FPT250. ‘The Greens are nasty authoritarian fascists. I loathe them.’
… They’re nasty authoritarian communists.”
There’s a difference?
AGW is a toy issue. If AGW is happening and combatable, should we combat it? Yes, obviously. Would you be happy to pay an extra 10p/litre and £100 per easyjet flight to fund the cost of combatting it? Feck off. These are the results of a poll which no one actually needs to conduct, so predictable are they.
Fortunately it is easily killed off by appointing some harmless drudge as Climate Secretary - Grayling after the reshuffle comes to mind - and by tractor-statting; arrive at a figure at the lowest end of the spectrum for government AGW spending, hike it by inflation plus .0025% every budget, portray anyone who suggests this is inadequate as a swivel-eyed imbecile. Simples.
47 I disagree. There is only a healthy questioning of the data/models which have been up to now hidden from sight or manipulated.
Good science is open science which can be replicated by others - since virtually all the data collection and interpretation has been funded with tax-payers money, it’s odd that the scientists involved seem to think it is their personal property.
As I’ve said before - I’m neither a warmer/colder - I simply object really strongly to one-side subverting due academic process/stifling debate.
41. He does come across a bit bonkers and there is a danger I concede that he’ll toxify his brand early in his Leadership when opinions are being formed. That said
- It looks like a “take out the trash” interview. perhaps he realises he has to take these hits before he can move on
- Its column inches for a minor party that doesn’t get that much outside of Euro Elections.
- Its classic anti politican stuff although perhaps a little too anti in this case.
The worst decade: Why even the Major years were better than Labour’s Noughties
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1239284/Why-Major-years-better-Noughties.html
46. So you’re saying, essentially, that only the 0.0000001% of the world’s population who have the “correct” qualifications in zoology, biology, meteorology, climatology, horology, theology, and hide-the-decline-ology should even be allowed to express an opinion on this subject.
And the rest of us must eat lichen when ordered to do so by this elite.
It’s oddly reminiscent of the attitude of the Catholic Church circa 1300. Only the Latin speaking priesthood is privy to the truth. The peasants are simply there to do the bidding of the church - they aren’t even allowed to read the Bible in the vernacular.
Because then they might see the “raw data” and start to ask questions.
48. Plao
Don’t the more extreme Greens believe that the human race should return to ‘pre-invasion territories’ and reduce themselves to 100,000 hunter-gatherers living in Kenya?
Of course these hunter-gatherers would still be creating CO2 from their campfires so perhaps Lucas is now advocating the entire extermination of human life?
51 - Well I agree with all of that and that’s up to the people working in this area prodded by government, it should also include educating people rather than just telling them.
55 - “so perhaps Lucas is now advocating the entire extermination of human life?”
Hush now, you are in danger of leaking the central plank of her election manifesto before its official launch!
55 Re The Brighton Pavilion Poll. If there have been other polls and they are releasing this one only because it helps them then what is your point? Mr Smithson has shown it meets normal ICM standards and is therefore a valid snapshot for the period in question. If other polls were kept private that does not impact the validity of this poll.
Last British hostage alive in Iraq apparently freed.
WOW - Hostage Peter Moore just released in Iraq!
Jack Straw’s article that I mentioned yesterday:
“Jack Straw: The Tories are trying to buy the election”
Never before in the history of our elections has a party spent so much to help so few
http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/jack-straw-the-tories-are-trying-to-buy-the-election-1852839.html
52 YS - But it’s not just that article. The remark about ‘disbanding the party’ was a humdinger of a gaffe, and caused havoc within the party. His appearances in the media have been pretty dire.
What I think we will see with UKIP is a contradiction between the internal state of the party, which looks well set to be in complete chaos, and a relatively good degree of electoral success which it may well gain despite that.
54 - It’s up to that small percentage to be honest and to educate the 99.999% who would be lying if they said they understood it. We can challenge them on not doing that and that would be credible.
Sometimes people know more than others, I can’t design a microprocessor but will accede to those who do, same here.
42,37. Those of us signed upto the project to enslave humanity via false flag AGW do need to regroup and rethink. I fear many in the vast left wing conspiracy think changing society and world view can be a linnear process from 1 to 100 and achieved via top down management. As an anarcho-liberal I know human nature isn’t like that. Its also not how very sucessful movements like Debt Relief and Fairtrade have operated.
We’ll have to get used to talking about a much wider range of issues which are easier to relate to ( save the whales was a genius campaign ), to harnessing human self interest ( Thrift is Green) and showing how all this action/ sacrifice helps real people ( Oxfam has some interesting if problematic ads on this.)
All politics is local.
58 - “If other polls were kept private that does not impact the validity of this poll.”
And for the reasons given in the last thread I really doubt this is the case anyway.
55. To be fair, that’s not fair. The tree you burn has only borrowed the carbon from the atmosphere for a maximum of say 100 years, so on any longer timescale the tree growing and then burning has a net effect of nil. What we are allegedly doing is releasing 100s of millions of years worth of borrowed carbon in one big go. Think of it as bingeing.
Punter
The point is, if that is the situation, the Greens will doubtless use this poll to claim that they are going to win.
It also means that those betting on the outcome do not see a full picture.
In short we would have a ramping situation.
56 Some greenies have a very peculiar view of the human race.
Here’s what Obama’s own expert has said - it was a while ago but still totally barking:
http://zombietime.com/john_holdren/
“Forced abortions. Mass sterilization. A “Planetary Regime” with the power of life and death over American citizens.
The tyrannical fantasies of a madman? Or merely the opinions of the person now in control of science policy in the United States? Or both?
These ideas (among many other equally horrifying recommendations) were put forth by John Holdren, whom Barack Obama has recently appointed Director of the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy, Assistant to the President for Science and Technology, and Co-Chair of the President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology — informally known as the United States’ Science Czar. In a book Holdren co-authored in 1977, the man now firmly in control of science policy in this country wrote that:
• Women could be forced to abort their pregnancies, whether they wanted to or not;
• The population at large could be sterilized by infertility drugs intentionally put into the nation’s drinking water or in food;
• Single mothers and teen mothers should have their babies seized from them against their will and given away to other couples to raise;
• People who “contribute to social deterioration” (i.e. undesirables) “can be required by law to exercise reproductive responsibility” — in other words, be compelled to have abortions or be sterilized.
• A transnational “Planetary Regime” should assume control of the global economy and also dictate the most intimate details of Americans’ lives — using an armed international police force.
Impossible, you say? That must be an exaggeration or a hoax. No one in their right mind would say such things.
Well, I hate to break the news to you, but it is no hoax, no exaggeration. John Holdren really did say those things, and this report contains the proof. Below you will find photographs, scans, and transcriptions of pages in the book Ecoscience, co-authored in 1977 by John Holdren and his close colleagues Paul Ehrlich and Anne Ehrlich. The scans and photos are provided to supply conclusive evidence that the words attributed to Holdren are unaltered and accurately transcribed.”
59/60 - Fantastic news for him and his family.
Morus - end of.
Tip of the year. Other’s listed may be more active with betting insight but none can match 50-1.
I did have Mon Mome £5k E/w in the National but missed Morus’ great tip.
Why no Tim btw on the list? He must be one of the most prolific/particular punters here, albeit always at bleeding evens.
35. I think a ‘professionally run UKIP’ is very close to being a contradiction in terms.
It attracts fruitcakes, megalomaniacs and fantasists in such large numbers - and with a surprisingly diverse set of pathologies - that splits, confusion and internal conflict are bound to be a permanent feature of the organisation.
“Famous Women and former England hooker headline Swindon Festival of Literature” is the headline over a picture of Cherie Blair on the local magazine guide to the Festival.
Apposite? A sub with a sense of humour? Or just incompetent?
HT to Guido. http://order-order.com/
Or is it rather that literature and Swindon suggests a concentration on Ian Allen trainspotter’s guides?
62. Point taken. I think I’m viewing it through Lib Dem specticles. Providing you are prepared to accept a certain glass ceiling in support then most publicity is good publicity just because the “bugger the lot of them” voter is reminded that you exist.
I must go and do some work! Afternoon All !
PS. apologies for helping to derail the thread. I’m not really qualified to judge this poll though like most voters that didn’t stop me! I voted for Morus simply because it was such an astonishing foresight and I couldn’t belive it when it happened.
However I suspect that taking a more rounded and literal view of the role that others are actually better qualified.
49-Yes, being a nasty communist means you get given air time and a sympathetic ear. If as a nasty green communist you need to shoot 40m of your own people to build a better society, then at worst you get hunched shoulders and mutterings it was all part of the common good and necessary to huild the green communist utopia. You can even say you were a nasty green communist in your “youth” and you get appreciative murmurs and an easy ride.
Now, subsititute the word communist for fascist or nazi in the above paragraph….
68. Would that person perchance qualify as a ‘whackjob’?
Plato / madasafish, are you seriously trying to tell us that when you heard Caroline Lucas talking about a “Zero Carbon World” you thought she was referring to a world with all the carbon removed?
Nothing wrong with disagreeing with these people, but there’s plenty to disagree with without taking slogans out of context and intentionally misconstruing them.
Someone’s got a definition here, if you’re interested.
http://www.carbonrationing.org.uk/fora/threads/zero-carbon-what-does-it-mean
oops £5 e/w - no ‘k’
78 I was pointing out the stupidity of her position.
For those who know bugger all about carbon-based lifeforms, it ’sounded’ terribly virtuous since CO2 has been defined as a ‘pollutant’ by the USA’s Environmental Protection Agency.
The dumbing down of science makes me want to
77 - What a silly definition, “zero carbon” obviously means “killing all babies ever born so that eventually the human race dies out”.
Mike S a bit of a shout on the previous thread. Bold printing and all.
I must admit that I was taking the method from other posters reports.
However, having checked out the ICM site all the points I made are still valid. No one thing is a killer, nor particularly weighty, on their own, but together they suggest that we cannot treat this as a reliable indicator of an election result in that constituency.
The sample size, the small pool, the weighting to the smaller population, and past vote on the slightly different basis, does, all together, make such polls less reliable than broader national polls. National polls are flakey enough. Single constituency polls are next to divination this far out.
The sample size was about half of the sample for the November Guardian poll where the sampling was in regional units not sub-city units. The weighting demographically was from the census in Brighton but from the National Readership Survey in the November poll.
In the Brighton poll the: Respondents are asked whether they voted in the last general election and if they did, which party they voted for ……. ICM compared the declared past votes … to the actual result of the last general election in Brighton Pavilion and gave a weight of 80% to the results of the last election and 20% to the reported past votes in this survey.
In the November national poll ICM added this qualifier which is not added to the Brighton poll : ICM takes the declared past votes on any new poll and adds it to the 20 or so most recent ICM polls containing the same question. The average of these polls is used in the past vote weighting scheme.
So while my original point was incorrect, it is is still true that this is not the same method precisely but one which of necessity has to be adapted for the smaller and less data rich target.
And lastly, no, I am not seeing this poll as unreliable because I don’t like the outcome. I couldn’t care less about an oddball constituency as this is. In the general election we will have a goodly sprinkling of such seats with interesting results.
So please do not misrepresent me in that.
The C and N polling by ICM at the very start of the campaign had the right order in the winner’s enclosure but the numbers were lower for the Tories and higher for Labour in the poll than in the vote.
Whether this is due to the effect of the campaign or the necessary imprecision of the polling we probably will never know. Let us assume it was an effect from the campaign, in which case the shares - the measure you currently favour- changed significantly in the very short campaign. That change may well happen more emphatically in Brighton where the shares of the vote are not that far apart. But in which direction?
78 scrapheap - You should have left it as it was. We were all seriously impressed.
50. I have recently wondered (i.e. this morning) if some western politicians are beginning to sense that their electorates are much more skeptical of climate change than the elites, and the politicians are therefore trimming their sails accordingly. Yet surreptitiously.
Hence the “failure” at Copenhagen, so conveniently blameable on the Chinese.
I’m not sure if this backpedalling is conscious or subconscious, but I suspect it is happening. They are politicians, after all.
79 - “I was pointing out the stupidity of her position”
You were? Do you think you did so successfully?
61 - more fairness nonsense from Straw. Is this really going to be the dividing line Labour are going for? And his complaints about Tory spending are pathetic; ‘wahhh, nobody wants to give us any money wahh’!
CCHQ should have a member of staff with a full-time job of highlighting examples of Labour policies being spectacularly unfair. It shouldn’t be hard.
The basic proposition, that increased levels of carbon dioxide, methane & water vapour will affect the climate seems to me reasonable.
Mankind has affected climate/weather. Demonstrably the increased and then decreased particulates in the atmosphere are/were the likely cause of global dimming (still affecting Southern and Far Eastern Asia), the short term ban on flights over the US after 9/11 had impacts on weather, which indicates there could well be climatic impacts. It is likely that CFCs were a cause, if not the only cause, of ozone destruction. Deforestation changes weather patterns and has at least local climate impacts. The draining of Aral Sea has adversely affected weather patterns over adjacent areas.
The problem is that the AGW proponents cannot demonstrate they understand sufficiently the basic mechanics of the Earth’s various interlinked systems for acceptance of their forecasts. What caused the Holocene Optimum to build then decrease? What were the drivers for centuries long warm and cold periods experienced at separate times in different hemispheres?
The models don’t seem able to explain the past, the data used has doubts about it and isn’t open enough to criticism to drive general acceptance.
There has been warming from the cold period that ended in mid 19th Century and glaciation has retreated in large parts of the Earth.
But the evidence isn’t compelling. If it were Copenhagen would not have been a dud. If it were then the United States, with its huge intellectual powerhouses in some of the best universities, attracting the best minds, would be at the forefront of research into obviating climate change rather than tinkering. If it were the pressure from populations on their politicians would be overwhelming.
The cause has been ill served by its political leadership, especially in Europe, being drawn from those who espoused revolutionary anti-capitalism and who now under the aegis of Climate Change propose the same solutions against the same evil corporations and states as they did when revolutionary socialists. A shame perhaps that the one early right wing politician who recognised that AGW might be an issue wasn’t corralled into creating the Thatcher Centre for Earth Studies when she left office.
The politics & science need separating. Those who present the evidence need to be separate from those who propose solutions. We need the facts or rather the best evidence uncoloured by prescriptions for resolutions.
The failure of Copenhagen gives a chance for reconsideration of the issues, for proponents of the theory to re-examine their tactics and evidence, to recognise that convincing China, India, Brazil & Russia, let alone the United States means addressing criticisms, being open to challenge, convincing opponents of the science rather than trying to enforce half baked solutions on a sceptical population.
85 That’s not for me to say
Talking of global warming, I am worried about an imminent and very severe personal example of the same.
Here’s your weather forecast for the next few days:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/2102
Here’s mine:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/88?count=10
Brrr!
49. Yes.
- Communists believe in the command economy and central direction; fascists believe in capitalism with significant state intervention.
- Communists have a love of abstract theory based on pseudo-science to prove their rightousness; fascists believe in the supremacy of strength (though can be prone to different strains of pseudo-science).
- Fascists believe in the cult of the leader; communists theoretically believe in a technocratic bureaucracy with little need for leadership (though that always gets subverted in practice).
- Communists believe in class / inequality as the key division within societies; fascists view class as of little importance.
And there are plenty of others, but it’s the first one that’s important. That said, one distinction between Greens and Communists is that at least communists believe in economic growth; the Greens’ stated policy is recession year-on-year.
O/T fantastic news that the surviving UK hostage, Peter Moore, released in Iraq.
87 Using Occam’s Razor - if billions of dollars of research funding over 30yrs can’t prove it - there’s likely to be a problem with the theory.
89 And here’s a comparison of global warming predictions from 2000 *cough laugh cough*
http://plato-says.blogspot.com/2009/12/embarrassing-predictions-no-94.html
“…David Parker, at the Hadley Centre [yes the Met Office] for Climate Prediction and Research in Berkshire, says ultimately, British children could have only virtual experience of snow. Via the internet, they might wonder at polar scenes - or eventually “feel” virtual cold.”
Re AGW:
Worth remembering *why* so many unlikely people, in both the us and uk ‘care’ about agw. Its because there is a strong element of concern about the costs of being a major energy importer: c. $500bn import bill in the US. And too much of that ends up in the middle east.
That’s why people like me support solar and nuclear power, even when we’re sceptical of AGW
92. Thanks for posting that for a second day in succession, Plato - most AGW-conspiracy-related humour is so side-splitting it really demands to be savoured twice.
77. Edmund in Tokyo - hate to be picky, and I know tht the word “fruitcake” is in danger of being trivialised by over-use, but the page you link to says this:
“Is Zero Carbon simply elimenating fossil carbon?
I’ve had a stab at a definition below where i’ve suggested that the planet can “sustainably” absorb 5% of our current fossil emissions so that would equal a net zero increase in the atmosphere. I used 5% because in the Zero Carbon Britain report they say that trees and plants can absorb 5% and i wanted not to rely on the use of seas given the problems of acidification.”
Do you see what he has done? He has read that trees and plants can absorb 5% of emissions, and extrapolated from that that trees and plants will take up all of the first 5% of carbon emissions while the sea takes up zero, but when the 5% limit is breached the sea will suddenly start taking up all the carbon. The mind simply boggles as to how the sea is meant to know what the plants are up to - it must be some ying/yang, auntie Gaia, mystical kind of thing.
So not a terribly compelling advocate. And they say that is is sceptics who don’t understand science.
88 - I’m coming to Thailand for a fortnight in the New Year, Sean - anything particular you recommend (not just in Bangkok)?
NB My wife will be with me so your first 5 suggestions are probably impermissible.
95 - Talk about selective quotation!!! Why did you leave out the very next line?!
“I know that this is somewhat weird because we can’t select only the forests to absorb the co2.”
94. Ah, the succulent irony of an sphincter-tighteningly tedious Scots Nit complaining about… someone being repetitive.
The Worlds Riskiest/Safest Sovereign Debt:
UK is 25th, behind Thailand with a CMA implied rating of aa (down from aa+ in Q2).
Our cumulative probability of default over the next 5 years is 6.3% according to CMA.
…Concerns are mounting about the increase of debt to GDP ratios in UK and USA, 97% and 75% respectively…
http://www.cmavision.com/images/uploads/docs/CMA_Global_Sovereign_Credit_Risk_Report_Q4_2009.pdf
I’ve voted for the mighty twin towers as I’ve had some great tips off them in the last year(excluding the Welsh Grand National though PTP!!!!)
Morus is a great shout but how many actually punted when they heard the tip.I’ll wager that more have actually benefitted from the twin towers and their pearls of wisdom than the single tip on Cathy Ashton??
98. Well, quite. I was thinking rather more of the other way round, though - the irony of those who moan about the supposed parochialism of us “Nits” choosing to delight the nation morning, noon and night with their incomprehensible in-jokes about “AGW”. Fingers on the pulse, as ever, guys.
77
Plato / madasafish, are you seriously trying to tell us that when you heard Caroline Lucas talking about a “Zero Carbon World” you thought she was referring to a world with all the carbon removed?
Of course not . And nowhere did I say so. I just pointed out that concrete, food and steel are all products of a carbon based economy.
Now of course if the Greens want us to grow food without tractors and fertilisers and leave 30% of the world’s population to die from hunger…
Any fool can see it’s raving nuts..
(Fertilisers and tractors of course both require oil..)
101. Oh, and in case that seems too harsh, well done on finally crossing from the dark side and becoming a Mebyon Kernow canvasser.
96. Taking your wife to Bangkok is like taking your own sandwiches to Paris.
Nonetheless, er….. I can recommend the islands: Samui or Phi Phi etc etc. They are beautiful. The mountains of the north are fascinating - and at their best this time of year. Bangkok’s saucier nightlife has to be seen once, even with the missus. Check out the ladyboy (”katoey”) bars. Hilarious and amazing.
And most of all, try deep fried sea bass with green mango salad at the seafood restaurant on the corner of soi 4 and soi 6, Sukhumvit Road, in Bangers. It’s also near the katoey bars, so you can make a night of it.
Given the almost legendary status of another 50-1 shot, Mr Smithson’s on Obama, I felt I had to vote for Morus. This is particularly so given that two of the other strong candidates for the award have been combined, on the pretext that people often confuse the two of them..
On the ICM poll in Brighton Pavilion, this is from a poster on ukpollingreport:
“What the Green Party have forgotten to mention is that at the same time they asked ICM to conduct this poll the Green Party had posted a full colour letter to every voter in Brighton Pavilion telling them why they should vote Green!”
Can’t comment on if it is true, but if so it makes some sort of sense…
100 Givusabreak, Lurker! They were both double-figure odds and ran pretty decent races. Coe would have been placed but for the mistake three out.
Anyway, thanks for your support and do make sure you are on Backstage at 25/1 for this year’s GN. I can’t repeat often enough that if the horse stays injury free it will go off favorite, or close to.
Atb
106 It is merely, Zebra, in a desperate attempt to lay our hands on some prize money.
There is prize money, no?
107 - I suspect that the Green party campaigns in the constituency quite regularly so it would probably be difficult to poll during a period they hadnt been leafletting / canvassing / writing to voters. Also they will probably be in touch with the electorate in the run up to the actual election as well so probably this feature will be replicated on polling day as well.
99 As someone who is only interested in the scientific principles and methods involved - I do find ad hom attacks rather strange.
As a chemist who specialised in the organic behaviour of pigments and canvas/board/papers of Old Masters etc - and has read many papers on AGW etc, I’m quite comfortable in my questioning of what the CRU et al have been up to
104. James, I was trying to be mean to you and provoke an argument, but now you are being all amiable it is difficult.
Tut.
Actually, I only went leafletting with my Meb Kern friend, but it was surprisingly interesting. Ish. He wants me to come down before the Gen Election and do some proper canvassing. I am tempted.
He is also an excellent candidate - imaginative, smart and funny. Hopefully he can split the non Tory vote allowing the Conservatives to win.
105 - Cheers Sean. Will you still be around on or after 10th Jan - I could buy you a beer or two [or maybe the other way, given all your success] and you could autograph my copy of TGS?
111. “As someone who is only interested in the scientific principles and methods involved - I do find ad hom attacks rather strange.”
Ah, so would that explain why you’ve chosen to indulge in ad hom attacks against me on so many occasions - some kind of experiment conducted from a perspective of utter detachment? If so, your dedication to the scientific principle is indeed admirable, Ms. Plato.
113. I MIGHT still be there. Can’t say for sure, cause I am also gonna be doing some research: I want to go to Pol Pot’s grave, on the Thai-Cambodia border, which has now - irony of ironies - become a kind of shrine where superstitious Cambodians lay offerings, to propitate the evil spirit of the man who once led the ultra-atheistic Khmer Rouge.
All very Tom Knox-y.
Anyway, drop me a line around the time.
tomknoxbooks@gmail.com
Sawadee Kap!
DANIEL KORSKI - 2010: my predictions and yours
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/5671266/2010-my-predictions-and-yours.thtml
Mr Kelly - I supported you when you posted as Red Meteor over Mr McKinnon.
Do feel free to list the times that I’ve attacked you personally rather than disagree with your position.
I don’t see Ave It 09 on the list or even Ezio da Monte Cristo, so I can’t see any way to cast a vote in good conscience.
118 Ave It 09 has consolidated his position - Ezio is clearly a hostage somewhere unknown
98 - if that was for me, i left it out because i missed it - i thought i had read enough when i got to the bit i quoted.
And it makes the article more bonkers, not less. He knows it is garbage, but what the hell.
120 - You could have saved yourself from writing all that complete tosh if only you had read the very next line! Oh dear.
119- The Chateau d’If, perhaps?
92 re AGW and the difficulty of proof (Plato)
Using Occam’s Razor - if billions of dollars of research funding over 30yrs can’t prove it - there’s likely to be a problem with the theory.
Change the number of years, and creationists can say the same of evolution.
117. “Mr Kelly - I supported you when you posted as Red Meteor over Mr McKinnon.”
And because I took that as a kind and gallant gesture (if gallantry can be a female thing) I foolishly let you get away with absolute murder for ages afterwards, because I thought you were one of the good guys. I haven’t got time to compile an exhaustive list of your passive-aggressive moments directed against me (ie. needle in a personalised way and then pretend you’re the one being attacked), but here is the most recent -
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2009/12/10/pbangus-reid-poll-has-the-tories-back-on-40pc/#comment-1343060
119. According to Ezio, Mike has banned him simply for making an unflattering comment about SeanT. Seems strange, but that’s what he says.
URW shades this for me ahead of the Petrine Towers. I guess I’m voting on “general betting analysis” rather pure tipping prowess, but the distinction is a little blurred for me. I would say URW gives great insight on how to turn a hunch about what is happening politically into a bet or set of bets.
I see that Morus is romping home though, and you can’t really argue with that. I semi-seriously wonder if his tip helped her get the job. After she’d been backed in from 50-1 she may have looked a little less “who? who?” in some circles.
[109] - Prize money? I suppose people might stretch to free drinks at pb gatherings…
109 PtP - Sorry, I’ve already graciously offered to share the second lot of prize money with Yellow Submarine.
127 I’ll have a G&T, Zebs. Large one please.
I am impressed by the 30 year rule stuff being released. The Jim Callaghen one on Trident was an example of putting country first. Can anyone imagine Labour doing such a thing now? Labour dont care about the country, just the jobs of Labour MPs and how they can trick voters into supporting them. Utterley pathetic.
An example to put against Jim Callaghens country first approach is Gordon Browns New Year message. He is talking about a recovery that has not started. The economy was still contracting in Q3 and i see no evidence in the release by the ONS of anything that would indicate growth in Q4. Even unemployment is not a reliable indicator as folk like me are shunted off the Dole queue into another benifits catogory. Then Brown starts going on about class as well!!! WTF! I used to be middle class until Gordon Brown screwed up the economy - I suppose i am in the underclass now?
I hate Gordon Brown and Labour, why will they not just go away before they screw everything up to the point where it is going to cause huge tension to the fabric of society? Maybe the uk has reached that point already?
124 And your point is? I simply said what I thought and do as a result.
If expressing an opinion of your posts is evidence of ‘passive aggressive behaviour’ - I’ll leave others to decide.
If this list of my ‘passive-aggressive moments’ are so numerous as to be worthy of an ‘exhaustive list’ , then it can’t be hard to produce a summary of the most egregious ones.
Happy New Year
121. Absolutely not. What he is saying is “I know this argument is complete balls but I am going to post it anyway becaise I can’t think of a better one”. A fruitcake which knows it is a fruitcake is still a fruitcake.
105. Cue one of my favourite Jasper Carrott jokes - “I took my wife to Bangkok. They charged me corkage.”
OT
re 260 FPT
‘Or you are worried that Caroline Lucas could take the whole system down if elected?’
Mike, when’s the poll for Ironic Comment of the Year? I’d nominate the above only I’m holding it in reserve for Delusion of the Year.
Hillary Clinton tops this year’s Gallup poll of America’s most admired women, followed by Sarah Palin and Oprah Winfrey (in that order):
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/washington/2009/12/sarah-palin-hillary-clinton-gallup.html
135 I’d rather Oprah myself
Where is Susan Boyle?
Hehe, nice picture of a Swindon paper:
http://order-order.com/2009/12/30/cherie-in-swindon/
137 Guido is sneering that her book has only sold 33k copies - frankly I’m amazed it was more than 3.3k copies !
138, got a £1m advance though.
64. ukpaul December 30th, 2009 at 2:22 pm
“It’s up to that small percentage to be honest and to educate the 99.999% who would be lying if they said they understood it.”
Need to make a distinction between those areas where specialist is needed (climatology itself) and those where it isn’t (deciding on what we should do about the advice climatologists give us).
“There is an X% probability of the climate changing in such-and-such a way” may be a statement that only a specialist can evaluate.
“We should try to prevent this” is a statement anyone might have an worthwhile opinion on.
134 “I’m holding it in reserve for Delusion of the Year.”
Prodicus, don’t bother: that prize is already won by tim, for his comment that the British didn’t contribute even a SINGLE BODY to the death toll in Iraq. Apparently all our bombs bullets and missiles had no effect. At all.
[87,Ted] - I assume you are having a good belly laugh now. Nice to know the jovial spirit is alive and well at this time of year.
I assume this, because I cannot see how you you could state:
“But the evidence isn’t compelling. If it were Copenhagen would not have been a dud.”
and:
“The politics & science need separating.”
with a straight face. It appears that it is you who is mixing up the politics and the Science. Indeed this is the case with most self-declared sceptics, who turn their political opposition to the political solutions offered by the most vocal parts of the green movement, into opposition to the science.
This is particularly evident when you see that these “sceptics” are not very sceptical when it comes to the contradictory arguments coming from their own side.
For example. It is often confidently stated that the Romans [or whoever] enjoyed balmy temperatures, on the basis of the flimsiest of evidence, while in the same breath casting doubt on the much firmer evidence for an increase in temperatures during this century.
Does this not strike you as just a teensy tiny bit contradictory?
131. The point, Ms Plato, is that it was a completely gratuitous remark - you jumped into an exchange between myself and another poster (which, incidentally, started by the said poster also launching into an unprovoked personal attack) just for the pleasure of having a go at me.
The incidents of your passive aggressive behaviour are indeed endless, but not only is it almost the New Year, it’s also my birthday and I’ve got better things to do than spend the next three hours trawling through the PB archives from the last few months.
For your information, though - as you seem to be genuinely unaware of your P-A nature - the general pattern has been that you make an unprovoked personal comment about me, I respond, and then you conveniently duck out with a comment along the lines of “puts Red Meteor on hmph list”. A variation on that theme has happened on a number of occasions. I really struggle to see how else that can be defined other than passive-aggressive.
134 - Can I assure you that it was far more ironic than delusional?!
136- To some extent, it’s about name recognition. But I do think that Hillary earns some respect all across the spectrum, given what she has done and what she has gone through. In the end, she comes across as a rather sympathetic tragic figure, soldiering on despite a lot of deserved and undeserved failures, disappointments and indignities.
143 I look forward to listing them in that case when you are less busy.
Happy Birthday
133. Explain please. I am a sheltered naive autistic, so I don’t know what it means. Is it something to do with “Bangkok” = “bang c0ck”? I don’t know what “corkage” is.
3. SeanT
I think you may be projecting your own thoughts into others and are finding reflections from other people of what you think; you are not finding people concerned about global warming because you are not mixing with the right people. I think that the depletion of the fossil fuel energy reserves is the most important and urgent world issue at the moment, because we’ve only got a few decades left before it gets really nasty. Global warming is mixed in with the subject because we’re using the wrong kind of energy.
General question to whoever: what happens when the oil / coal runs out? We’ve only got a few decades / centuries of it left. Whether it causes global warming or not, it will have to be replaced by something or else we’ll have to have some sort of mass extinction again. Triffids?
146. I’ll endeavour not to disappoint, Ms Plato. I trust you noticed that I wished you a happy Boxing Day so we’re even on the pleasantries (but sadly I don’t know how to do smilies).
149, colon then an ending bracket, or capital D, or capital P. No spaces.
ARGH! I should be getting some work done.
149 - (but sadly I don’t know how to do smilies).
Boy you can say that again
Further to the discussions on the FT article on the North polling figures, Luke Akehurst has a different perspective compared with mine and I believe others. Well worth a read. For anyone who doesn’t know, Luke is a Labour Party activist and is also a good source of local election results. It’s actually a shame I haven’t seen him on here. He would be a useful counterpoint and source of Labour Party information:
http://lukeakehurst.blogspot.com/2009/12/labour-resurgence-in-north.html
Mike,
I must express my extreme dissapointment that I am not on your shortlist!
142 ‘the flimiest of evidence’ ?
You mean historical and archaeological records that aren’t subject to current politically convenient revisionism?
Here’s a study that has no vested interest.
http://www.winelandsofbritain.co.uk/book.htm
147 JohnL, “corkage” is what you have to pay when you take your own bottles of wine to a restaurant - as compensation for the loss of a sale of a bottle or two by the restaurant. Hence the analogy of having to pay for taking the wife to Bangkok, as compensation for the loss of a business opportunity…
O/T, but 2010 is the Tories 340th birthday…
http://blog.conservatives.com/index.php/2009/12/30/the-tories-340th-birthday/
153 - I think that’s down to the low profile that you’ve been keeping.
147. JohnLoony - corkage is what restaurants charge for opening a bottle of wine you have brought yourself.
Geddit??
150. Thanks, Morris Dancer.
151. Well, if it’s the form of “comedy” we see on these pages I’m meant to be aspiring to, solemnity clearly has it’s pluses.
Actually, if we were to put together a “Comedy of PB.com - Classic Jokes from the CyberTories” compilation…well, the most generous thing I can say is that it might turn out to be rather reminiscent of Peter Serafinowicz’s ‘James Bond - Licence to Tell Jokes’ DVD -
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p7LjOy9UrPI
139. 138, got a £1m advance though.
Private Eye used to occasionally print a league table of the cost of the advance per copy sold for books that were currently in the news. There are books by well known celebrities and politicians that lost hundreds of pounds per copy sold. Even serialisation and press coverage wouldn’t offset the costs for many of them.
It is sort of a reverse vanity publishing. 2010 will undoubtedly produce a score or more of unemployed MPs who will be overpaid for their tedious memoirs.
148. I did say I *may* have been unlucky in my meetings. But the fact is… over three weeks of quite intense socialising and chatting I did not encounter one person positively engaged about environmental issues - in the sense of bringing it up in a “save the world” way. Not one.
Not a single despairing comment about Copenhagen, not a single remark about threatened polar bears.
They didn’t even mention it (if they believed it) when we were discussing politics.
By contrast, several people UNPROMPTED expressed anger/skepticism about emailgate/AGW. Not only that, some of these were determined lefties.
Maybe I should hang out in Croydon more, but my suspicion is that the great unwashed are simply not buying the green agenda, and politicians will, eventually, have to adapt to this inconvenient truth.
160, as an aspiring author that does piss me off. In this case, doubly so, as the Blairs are as appealing to me as the prospect of a handjob from Edward Scissorhands.
[Yes, it's an old joke, but I'm doing my bit for the environment by recycling
].
[148] - what happens when the oil / coal runs out?
Have you read Collapse by Jared Diamond?
Unless we do something to anticipate the end of fossil fuels, then the evidence from previous societal collapse is that we will fall back onto the boiling bones method of human survival. That is, some people will boil the bones of other people.
[154] - But growing vines are not direct measurements of temperature! Duh.
Hence you are failing to be properly sceptical where the evidence fits your preconceived viewpoint.
163 148
- what happens when the oil / coal runs out?
Simple
Priority to agriculture. Fertiliser, growing, collection, processing and distribution of food.
Then to armies: lots of wars to fight. Over food.
And then to police. Breakdown of law and order.
Undertakers: body burial.
Of course, heat pumps and hydrothermal energy are an obvious and workable solution now. They are not sexy and are local so do not appeal to centralist autocratic governments (I sound like Weathercock?) ..
Above all , no fertilisers = 5 billion surplus mouths not fed.
154
I grow vines north of Stoke on Trent.
163 So we ran out of stones when the Stone Age finished, or bronze or iron ?
Or horses?
We worked out how to create artificial refrigeration so the market for icebergs was kaput.
http://www.history-magazine.com/refrig.html
The same will happen to oil/gas/coal.
Market forces and innovation will find a new way to do old things.
Just like an ox-bow river will make a new course.
164 It may not be a direct measurement - but it does show that it was more temperate than some climate scientists claim.
Like I said - I’ve no position on either side - merely a desire to see sensible debate.
Thomas Malthus, 1798:
“I think I may fairly make two postulata. First, That food is necessary to the existence of man. Secondly, That the passion between the sexes is necessary and will remain nearly in its present state. These two laws, ever since we have had any knowledge of mankind, appear to have been fixed laws of our nature, and, as we have not hitherto seen any alteration in them, we have no right to conclude that they will ever cease to be what they now are, without an immediate act of power in that Being who first arranged the system of the universe, and for the advantage of his creatures, still executes, according to fixed laws, all its various operations.
…
Assuming then my postulata as granted, I say, that the power of population is indefinitely greater than the power in the earth to produce subsistence for man. Population, when unchecked, increases in a geometrical ratio.”
– Malthus 1798, Chapter 1[3]
142 Timothy - actually I am a believer, the evidence that there is a human influence on climate is IMHO harder than that there is none. I’ve cut down my heating & home energy use, travel by train rather than road when practical and possible and shop locally so have cut my mileage by 75% per annum. Yes I take long haul flights but no-one is perfect.
But very few people actually believe do they? if judged by actions. The UK met its Kyoto targets by counting carbon trades, by exporting manufacturing and most of all by decisions made prior to Kyoto by private companies for profit to change from coal to gas power generation. A Government that proclaimed itself at leading edge, that spoke at global get togethers of the critical importance of action did very little. Promises of 6 million homes to be insulated resulted in 340,000 over 12 years. Prescott’s “I will have failed if road traffic isn’t reduced” resulted in failure. Some countries have acted but few.
Copenhagen became mired in G77 countries wanting cash handouts, Chinese using allies to block action and EU saying “well if you won’t cut then we won’t either, so there”. All about who looked good, little about getting something real.
People who believe act. People who don’t really but pretend to go through the motions. There is lots of going through motions, very little action.
I think we do need to act but that means actually getting real belief, splitting away the New Age Greenery, the neo-socialist politics of the Green Parties, the verbiage from the science.
and make the science robust, have rows and arguments, prove it. The fate of the planet depends on that.
167. Quite so. Indeed the technology is there already.
If every country switched to nuclear power the way the French have done, and also made a serious effort to turn cars electric (now becoming feasible), then the planet would have enough oil and coal, for other purposes, to last many centuries.
Personally, I reckon this is what WILL happen, once the greens get over their ludicrous and hypocritical aversion to nuclear power.
167- There will be a solution, but there may be a lag between innovation and complete successful implementation such that there will be many more unfed mouths than there are today. The poorest nations (and energy-poor nations), of course, will be hit first and most fiercely.
Hmm, I agree Morus’s tip makes him a strong candidate, but I’m not sure Mike’s intro would quite pass his test of unbiased polling introductions in other contexts? I was going to vote Morus, but, being counter-suggestible, have gone for Twin Towers instead.
145: S&S’s post about Hillary is a pleasant reminder for us lefties that it’s possible to be a conservative Republican and *nice* - not many of us are that spontaneously generous about people we completely disagree with.
165 A small fleet of British Death Stars should discourage Johnny Foreigner from any ideas of coming to our shores with the intent of foraging or scrumping…
157.
Possibly, although I have been a lot of behind the scenes work for Conservative HQ, that’s keeping me very busy!
174 ARGH! you are talking Britain down! Gordon will order a world-leading armada of Death Stars!
Is there another Roger? A non too subtle attempt to ruin my reputation as worst tipster on PB.Com!
170: Ted, I agree with you that it’s cheating to count the phasing out of coal before Kyoto, but I’m surprised to see you criticise carbon trading. This seems to me one free market idea that is clearly desirable. If you’re going to build a solar power station, it makes sense to put it in, say, Ethiopia, rather than Scotland, and benefit from carbon trading incentives because you’re saving more carbon emissions that way. If the international agreement says hey, that doesn’t count, you’ve got to have the reduction in your home country, it will simply result in sub-optimal use of resources to tackle the problem.
175 - “behind the scenes work for Conservative HQ”
What is that? Graffiting it?
173 But presumably, Nick, that is just your first vote, and you reserve the right to vote again, as before?
oh dear, oh dear…
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/article6971582.ece
167 Plato - you mean the Horse Age has ended?
TLZ how’s this year’s crop of Norwegian Chablis doing? Or perhaps vine growing does have something to do with the climate after all.
164. Tlz What a baffling remark. Only thermometers with scales on them, invented post 1600 according to Wikipedia, give direct measurements of temperature. Are you saying that the only evidence of temperature is measurement by thermometer? Confronted with two pans of water of which one is steaming and the other isn’t have you no way of knowing which is hotter?
178 Hmm.
So the closure of the Corus plant at Redcar [and 1700 made redundant] so TATA can open one up in India with £1.2bn of carbon credit subsidies is okay?
Same jobs, just somewhere else and lots of cash changing hands?
179.Neil,
Very funny. We all know what you got for Christmas. However you have to be able to read first, if someone buys you a joke book!
3.SeanT. Depressingly I agree with a large part of your post. Not this though;
“I did not encounter a single person who *cares* about environmental issues in a positive way”
Though I’m not too excited by the whole debate most of the people I come into contact with still take it very seriously indeed.
186 - Your 2009 predictions of resignations and Irish No votes kept me laughing more than any book ever could
178 185
Anyone who seriously believes carbon trading works to cut carbon usage is frankly at best naive..and at worst disingenuous.
But it makes traders lots of money.
Reality is that it makes zip difference to co2 output though..Unless all the growing numbers of airplanes flying emit only hot water…
The Twin Towers get my vote,
and Morus while good, has gone float
to the States.
The two peters are the steadier and more reliable tipsters.
Morus has an uncanny ability to pick long shots.
URW - though not to my taste - has his moments
They are my 1. 2. 3.
187
Roger
But you meet no-one who supports the Conservatives …
OT
just been listening to 5 live.. one wonders if parents ever stop to think.
… Interview with Inspector Wayne King.
For those who believe that the IPCC are a virtuous organisation quite beyond reproach - here are a couple of observations
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/6847227/Questions-over-business-deals-of-UN-climate-change-guru-Dr-Rajendra-Pachauri.html
and this one - a forensic analysis of who is doing what:
http://eureferendum.blogspot.com/2009/12/pachauri-teri-europe-enigma-part-1.html
Festive greetings to one and all!
I just spent Christmas in the 1920’s (no Internet access, no Television, and papers 3 days out of date), but I am back in civilisation now (well, Scotland).
I would like to thank the 19 deluded optimists who voted me plumb last for POTY. I feel a certain affinity with “Mr Smithson”, but alas can’t claim a bad back as an excuse. Of course I now expect to complete the double.
stjohn gets my nod as TOTY, thus ensuring another PxP victory…
*** ANECDOTE ALERT ***
Latest
researchgossip from my sources in Edinburgh South West.I have posted previously about the Palmeresque canvas returns the Tory candidate is getting. A Labour party activist suggested to the Tories there might be an element of spin in these claims, so he was invited to join them on a canvas. He declined, I suspect knowing full well just how accurate the results are.
Good News!! The recession is over! Well, Alistair Darling is no longer worried about it as he has suddenly discovered that he is a constituency MP. He has been writing to the local councillors on behalf of constituents, an order of magnitude more frequently in the last 5 weeks than over the last 5 years.
Are these the actions of a man confident of retaining his seat? I leave that as an exercise for the reader.
Afternoon all and while admiring Morus’ Baroness AShton tip, for me it was a split between the very amiable and erudite URW and the Twins. I opted for the twins so sorry URW but you are indeed a fine PBer. Frankly the entire group of nominees are excellent candidates and would be worthy winners.
Like everyone else I delight in the release of the Iraq hostage but tinged with the sadness that his 4 security guards were murdered.
At least it has pushed Gordon Brown’s class hatred fantasy New Year message off the top billing on the TV headlines.
clearly we are in for a “class war” election. Will it finally push any moderate, decent Labour MPs into the Tory camp?
Witan
Alt + 213 = ı
(you have to use the numbers on the right of the keyboard; it doesn’t work if you use the top row)
178 Nick P - That is certainly true in principle. (Carbon Trading is partly modelled on the scheme for trading sulphur dioxide pollution permits in the US, which is generally reckoned to have been very successful).
However, to make carbon trading work well across borders, and including developing countries which don’t have sophisticated legal and technical infrastructures, does present enormous practical difficulties. In particular, verification that you are actually getting the promised offsets is very hard, and open to fraud or well-meaning but dubious interpretation. I think some scepticism on the practicalities is well justified.
Even when it all goes according to the rules, there can be unintended consequences, as Plato points out at 185 with the Redcar example.
Putin insists that new, better superweapons are needed to stop America from doing “whatever it wants” in the world:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/europe/article6970921.ece
This does not sound like the sort of rhetoric that was envisaged when Obama sought to “reset” America’s relationship with Russia. I’m sure this is part of a typical Russian effort to extract greater concessions from America, for less in return, during arms reduction negotiations upon which Obama has staked so much of his credibility. This also illustrates how easy it is for foreign rivals to exploit Obama’s open hand of friendship when it is so publicly offered as part of an effort at domestic political branding.
195
Easterross..
“Will it finally push any moderate, decent Labour MPs into the Tory camp?”
Do pigs fly?
195. “Will it finally push any moderate, decent Labour MPs into the Tory camp?”. It would be far more interesting if one or two Labour and Tory MPs showed their true colours on the nationalist issues and joined UKIP.
155. Oh I see! Ha ha ha!
Oic!
Euk! [German]
Oec! [Latin]
Perhaps I should read fewer books…
198. For all that Putin is a slippery customer, I’d still trust Obama’s approach to deliver a dramatic reduction in nuclear weapons over the neocon approach. Indeed, did the neocons think a degree of nuclear disarmament was a desirable thing even in theory?
Well I’m sure someone who visits this site, can come up with something.
Tories offer £1m for voters website
(UKPA) – 6 hours ago
A £1 million taxpayer-funded prize will be offered by the Tories in a competition to produce a website that can “harness the wisdom” of voters if it wins the general election, the party has announced.
Shadow culture secretary Jeremy Hunt said the input of outsiders such as retired professionals was important if an incoming Conservative administration was to avoid policy “howlers”.
Announcing the cash prize, which would be taken from the Cabinet Office budget, the party said it believed “the collective wisdom of the British people is much greater than that of a bunch of politicians or so-called experts”.
It would be paid to the individual or team “that develops a platform that enables large groups of people to come together online to solve common problems and develop new policies”.
The competition is modelled on the use of the online science community by pharmaceutical firms to solve problems as part of their development of new products.
Anything from rating local schools and hospitals and deciding where National Lottery cash should be spent to finding a route around road works and picking the England football squad for the World Cup might be improved through proper online consultation and harnessing the so-called “wisdom of crowds”, the party suggested.
Mr Hunt told BBC Radio 4’s Today: “Look at the U-turns over child care vouchers, over the 10p tax, over the NHS IT system.
“It is crazy that these things have gone wrong when you’ve got lots and lots of retired health professionals, retired policemen, people in the teaching profession, who have huge knowledge and expertise and had they been able to contribute better to the policy-making process we could have avoided some of these problems.
“What we are trying to find is: is there a way that we can use the internet - it’s a means to an end not an end in itself - to try and avoid some of these howlers so a future Conservative government can not just have good policy ideas but execute policy in a much more considered and thought-through way.”
He said of the prize: “We will only give this money away … if we get a solution. One of the innovative things about this idea is that it is a prize so someone will actually have to deliver the entire product, working, functioning.”
It isn’t a gimmick, honestly it isnt!
191.Crazyfish I’m sure I come into contact with many ’shy’ Conservatives just like the pollsters but unlike them I wouldn’t dream of uncovering their deeply hidden shame
Nick, we want to reduce CO2 emissions from developed world as developing world increases theirs so that globally less CO2 is emitted.
Building a solar plant in Ethiopia doesn’t. It may cut growth in CO2 emissions, as the Ethiopians don’t build a coal or gas fired plant but it doesn’t cut emissions. CO2 real emissions in UK have been growing most of this century, though minimally.
In fact the production of the panels/mirrors would most likely be from a plant in China, made of cement (responsible for 5% of emissions worldwide), with component production powered from a dirty coal power station (a one third chance the panels/mirrors from Germany a country which has taken action).
Compare the actions of the German and British governments. Which country has 15% renewable power generation? Which country has a real green industry, with 33% of solar market (though China is growing there and exporting to third world as pricing is better) and 50% of wind turbine market. Which country really did act on home insulation?
204
lol
205 - “Compare the actions of the German and British governments. Which country has 15% renewable power generation? Which country has a real green industry, with 33% of solar market (though China is growing there and exporting to third world as pricing is better) and 50% of wind turbine market. Which country really did act on home insulation?”
Which country had the Green party in government for a time?
Previous thread, 123. I am so green that I endorse the sentiment, but after about 40 seconds of that film I was already shouting “Fuff ock you patronising cow!” at the screen.
171. Personally, I reckon this is what WILL happen, once the greens get over their ludicrous and hypocritical aversion to nuclear power.
That is probably the main reason I’m a red-green Loony rather than a Green Party supporter. I reckon that if I lived in Brighton Pavilion, I would probably still stand as a Loony candidate (despite the risk of splitting the Green vote) partly because Caroline Lucas is (AFAIK) a republican.
165. - what happens when the oil / coal runs out?
Simple
Priority to agriculture. Fertiliser, growing, collection, processing and distribution of food.
Then to armies: lots of wars to fight. Over food.
And then to police. Breakdown of law and order.
Undertakers: body burial.
Of course, heat pumps and hydrothermal energy are an obvious and workable solution now. They are not sexy and are local so do not appeal to centralist autocratic governments (I sound like Weathercock?) ..
Above all , no fertilisers = 5 billion surplus mouths not fed.
Fair enough, except that “simple” is probably not accurate . . .
My wallet says vote for the twin towers.
My head says URW, for he more than anyone else, had educated me on the nuances on betting.
But I’m going to vote for StJohn, because of the gracious way he took defeat last night
209, what happened last night?
209 - The mighty Liverpool beat Aston Villa, with an injury time winner.
18
“Certainly the “greening” of major brands during the recession doesn’t back it up though they may just be out of touch.”
“is an elite project and I’ve no doubt that the elite is now way out in front of many people.”
I think you’ve been looking at it the wrong way round and have answered your question without realizing it - the initial greenie part of the global warming scam was anti-capitalist and anti-industry but the dominant NWO strand that took it over is corporatist through and through.
Okay, which one of you is responsible for this?
White powder in envelope triggers Commons terror scare
Communities minister Shahid Malik was target of suspect package caught by security and found to be harmless
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/dec/30/shahid-malik-white-powder-anthrax
Has this latest ‘missile’ from Gordon’s biggest fan been mentioned?
He must be a visitor to PB and UKPR given his lingo in the attached…. an idea occurs perhaps CC is tim?
Lots of time on his hands, in the sticks, bit of an old-attack dog and been saying Gordon to go around New Year….
http://www.iaindale.blogspot.com/
Easterross. “clearly we are in for a “class war” election. Will it finally push any moderate, decent Labour MPs into the Tory camp?”
Do you really believe that Labour’s advertisers would be foolish enough to run a ‘class war’ campaign for the next election? One of the depressing features (for the creatives anyway) is the way all campaigns are researched to death.
They will know to a whole number who are their target market and slightly less accurately how to target them. Though it isn’t a precise science it’s safe to say that something as blunt as ‘Class War’ won’t happen. That is not to rule out a frontal attack on their tax policies and the beneficiaries of those policies.
214 - Surely tim is sober too much of the time to be Charles Clarke?
214 - If Tim is Charles Clarke, i’ll let you all know next year
216/7 - CC is Tiny after all?
I don’t think anyone has posted this before
Bastards, don’t let the Tories get you down
My parents’ unmarried status marked me out in the 70s and 80s. If taxation is used to reward marriage, that stigma will return
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/dec/29/bastards-tories-marriage-tax
219, ah, the Guardian, without question my favourite newspaper as it’s soft, strong and thoroughly absorbant.
219.
Effin’ Bastard!
220/221 - Is he implying all Labour supporters are bastards?
222, we had a bastard at school. Taught Chemistry.
Following Gabble’s “Rich as creases”
My all time seconda favourite typo was someone called me an “utter basturd”
214 scrapheap - Not much sign of rallying around Gordon there, even if Charles Clarke is one of the ‘usual suspects’. I think we may well be treated to Labour in-fighting and doubts about the leadership right up to the election.
Afternoon again,
On the topic of Global Warming, it seems to me that the problem is that its presentation has been handled atrociously. In fact it seems to be being presented by imbeciles (yep it’s not just Gordo).
1) Whilst I doubt many would want to see the disappearance of polar bears or some islands in the South Pacific but it is hardly going to rock the great unwashed’s lives in the western world. Stop talking in remote or unfathomable terms. Make it real.
2)Cut the hysteria. Instead of banging on about doom and disaster and ‘50 days to save the planet’ talk in terms that people can get their heads round such as if projections are right large parts of Lincolnshire and Cambridgeshire could be flooded , Thanet could become an island again and so forth by the end of the century (I know it’s a long time off) and highlight the implications of that in human terms.
3) Given the timescales and the likely reality of the impact of such climate change (see links below), develop plans which reflect them recognising that the vast majority of people in this country will be dead before the real impact is felt and make those plans realistic and measured and ensure they recognise these considerations.
4)Stop proposing solutions that will (or threaten to) put peoples cost of living up and instead promote solutions that potentially could reduce peoples costs (they are out there). Nothing makes people more cynical than putting a revenue tag on everything.
5) Stop setting meaningless targets which are going to come to fruition only when a 3rd of the population or more is likely no longer with us. Instead talk about tangible actions which people can see taking place in the shorter term (like building new sea defences, providing cost effective alternative fuel sources, planting trees or whatever).
Basically the politicans and environmental lobby have got to stop running around like hysterical headless teeny boppers and megalomaniacs and start acting like mature human beings!
Anyway for those interested I found this Google flood map of the UK which demonstrates the sort of potential real impacts I was talking about.
http://flood.firetree.net/
And according to this article from 2007:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/7148137.stm
Worst case projections were that sea levels would rise by 1.63m by 2100. I’m sure most people would look at such projections and the flood map (can’t comment on its accuracy) and say ‘And - just go fix it - we’ve got decades yet’.
Of course if projections/ actuals suggest something different then plans will need to be adjusted as best they can but it seems a far better approach than the several thousand idiots who went to Copenhagen to impersonate King Canute in their wild delusions of grandeur that humanity has any real control over the earth’s climate or rising sea levels.
219 “Children’s Secretary Ed Balls yesterday moved to put families at the centre of Labour’s election campaign.
He said children do better when parents stay together and pledged to do more to support married couples.”
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/top-stories/2009/12/28/ed-balls-pledges-to-put-families-at-the-centre-of-labour-s-election-campaign-115875-21926836/
not much to choose between Conservatives and Labour then for the Bastards is there?
Perhaps the Lib Dems will step up to the plate as the Bastard’s Party
224 On the typos of 2009, Plato’s “menthane” deserves a further honourable mention…
But Chris Huhne = rich as creases - t’was indeed beyond compare.
227 Ted - Yes, Labour seem to have a remarkable knack for systematically destroying their own attack lines against the Conservatives.
228 It’s a well known fact that only men fart
227 - I see Labour manage to find themselves on the wrong side of their own dividing lines.
Only a truly special genius, can manage to do that, countless times.
Please, please Labour, keep Gordon Brown as leader until the election.
I promise to be good for the whole on 2010 if you do
This is helpful
http://iaindale.blogspot.com/2009/12/charles-clarke-being-helpful-again.html
230. Plato but that’s based on the other well known ‘fact’ that everything is a man’s fault…..
233 - Crikey, my wife has started posting on here.
214 from Charles Clarke “There is also fear of the perceived personal costs which could arise from antagonizing the leadership. The Damian MacBride style of politics is not dead – shortly before Christmas a senior Cabinet member warned me personally to take care ‘because Gordon’s spies are everywhere’.”
How any decent Labour MP can allow Brown to continue with this activity undermining any sense of teamwork just beggars belief. Will our NickMP adopt the Arsene Wenger tactic of “I see nothing”?
Well I kind of hope so as it will only increase the size of the Labour defeat.
I don’t do betting, so I wouldn’t have noticed or remembered which betting tips were good, which were bad, or which were made by whom. So I am wholly unequipped to judge for whom I should vote. Accordingly I voted for Peter and Peter because I like the name.
As Private Eye would say, Peter Phillips is 32.
73 “I think a ‘professionally run UKIP’ is very close to being a contradiction in terms. It attracts fruitcakes, megalomaniacs and fantasists in such large numbers - and with a surprisingly diverse set of pathologies - that splits, confusion and internal conflict are bound to be a permanent feature of the organisation.”
Most leftie organisations are like that and usually stay that way but it takes a surprisingly small number of sots* people to change it round. In Ukip’s case there’s at least a possibility of that happening i’d have thought. What’s needed is a wave of sots all at once - one or two at a time and they get put off.
sots: sane on the surface
234. TSE - Ithought all women were taught that in their ‘domestic science’ classes at school!
Does anyone know if there is going be a poll by YouGov before New Years Eve?
238 - Well, at ante-natal classes, they take it to a whole new level
I’m a non voter in this poll because I don’t have enough knowledge to make an informed choice, and (unlike the old days) no one has offered me a bribe
Does “not voting” make me a closet Tory according to Patrick’s theory?
240 Yeah I know. One of the mantra’s I get reminded of regularly is -
Whats’ mine is mine and whats his is mine too…
241, back Morris Dancer
241. Surely you should vote for ScottP, just for the name?
I would have thought that the eventual effects of the Holocene extinction will be more significant for the future of humanity than either changes in climate or the exhaustion of particular resources.
237 UKIP professional? They are also well known as “The Lib Dems useful idiots”.
Most of their members left other parties saying “I will not put up with….” so they now congregate in one party until one group falls out with another and they split again…. It is the best example of The Peoples Judean Front outside of the Respect party/s.
UKIP are now lead by an old duffer who thinks its OK for Farage to publicly insult the other Leadership candidates (most are UKIP MEPs). Farage then thinks he can carry on in charge of the same MEPs after all that…..
Utterly OT, but quite liked this NTNON sketch:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5BZajzv4hK4
[167] - Market forces and innovation will find a new way to do old things.
You haven’t read Collapse then. Previous societies once flourished, but then did collapse when key resources ran out.
The societies that survived did so because they reacted to the changes that were happening before it was too late.
There is a long lead time to develop new energy infrastructure. We need to act before key resources being to run out, or we will not have enough time to do so.
Consequently there is a need to act before market pressure can be brought to bear.
Or there will be a growing market for boiled human bones…
245 I find it depressing that greenies miss the point that cold kills more than warmth does.
235 Remember Gordon promising the PLP in June after the botched coup that he would be a listening PM, that all that had changed, he’d be more collegiate. Some of the saps believed him, his claques in the media pretended to, while getting the juicy stories from the revitalised “sources close to”. My supposition about the Ed, Charlie & Kevin dining club looks to be true.
So Brown’s boys meet and talk, and in the corridors whispers are passed “beware the Stasi are listening”
what fun it must be in Cabinet
243 Morris Dancer
Bribe first!
248 Interesting - do give some examples.
243/251 - Bribe him with deep fried conkers.
245. Indeed but with the potential of genetic manipulation and cloning and so forth it’s possible that humanity could be recreating species as quickly if not faster than they become extinct sometime down the line.
The big problem with that and natural resource exhuastion etc etc is human population growth and resolving will be anything but easy…..
253 TSE
“deep fried conkers”
I thought that was an American interrogation technique.
248
Timothy
There is a long lead time to develop new energy infrastructure. We need to act before key resources being to run out, or we will not have enough time to do so
Agree 100%.
And more importantly as energy becomes scarcer, costs go up. So the price of delay is increased cost: like orders of magnitude.
And the best way is to ensure you are independent is to make power with your own resources and not be dependent on say the Chinese for rae earths to make solar cells..
As I said upthread, heat exchange systems work. So does geothermal - although much more costly and long term.
But heat exchanger systems could save 50% of all heating energy in every town in the UK and be operational fully by 2020 at the latest.
And we are doing? Nothing.
Ed Miliband is an ignorant twonk.
254
Resolving human growth and lack of food is easy.
A few wars and a bit of genocide and Bob, your aunty and half your family are fertiliser.
255 - Nope, I had forgotten about “Conkers Deep”, which is a euphemism for, something, which i cant mention on here, after all it is a family site.
250 Weirdest thing would be if Campbell joined the goblins instead of them being rivals.
As the present office holder of the PB Silver Stick Up The Waiting Arse - TotY, won so convincingly last year by one vote (No gracious or silly sharing here !!) I feel it appropriate to say a few chosen words !!
Bugger It !!
Some more well chosen words ….
Excellent candidates - all well merited …. except it’s apparent that a certain ‘Fish Net Pete’ of this parish (shockingly poor runner-up lasy year) has attached himself like a leech to a poor unsuspecting soul from Putney - now termed the Twit Towels - Bath sheets for betting burks.
Jacobites are invited to cast their ballot in the final hour of voting so as to maximise “incentives” from candidates !!
Signed : Jack W in the final grand old days of his Totyship.
255. “Nigerian man finds new way to blow his rocks off.”
Yet another New Years message, this time from Boris:
http://playpolitical.typepad.com/london_mayor/2009/12/boris-johnsons-upbeat-new-year-video.html
258 TSE
Google is a very useful thing. Didn’t understand the definition though
, so it still wouldn’t persuade me.
*puts on an expression of angelic innocence*
O/T - Iran, according to sky, Mir Hossein has fled Tehran
256. Worth noting re energy prices that not long ago OPEC had an official target of $22-$28 for a barrel of oil. We would now regard double that as cheap, treble it as par and quadruple as not unexceptional. And this is before the world has come back into the kind of steady growth it was used to pre-2007.
263 - Google is evil. I’ll never forget the time I was searching for holidays ideas/destination which involved going on water skis.
Never ever google “Watersports Holiday”
266 TSE. I bet you pissed yourself laughing !!
257 Madsa …. And the odd environmental cataclysm and a few global contagions thrown in for good measure(our political masters keep wishing them on us - whatever happened to that new flu strain) and we should be right again.
Funny thing is people keep making noises that these may not be desirable options. Can’t think why?
267 - It was one of the very few times, that I have ever been shocked.
268
I am breeding a super virulent flu strain targetted at Scot Nats only. Any normal people are immune.
Symptoms are frequent posting of interminable rubbish on PB.com coupled with rabid inability to understand simple economics…
270 - Surely that flu strain is already present in Labour supporters too?
248 It’s a while since I read “Collapse” but more than one of the societies he analyzes (Aztecs, Easter Island) came to grief not by simply using up resources but by insanely squandering them on the advice of a greatly revered and entirely self-serving priesthood who persuaded them that there was no other way of averting a terminal disaster.
Just saying.
270. Madsa I wondered why so many threads had been filled with incessant repetitious nonsense about some local hobby horse issue from some tiny minority group from a small insignificant region of the country…..
271
TSE
That is another variety called the “Glass is half full, Gordon Brown is terrible but we have no balls except Cooper/Balls “variety.
It is typified by frequent posting of interminable rubbish on PB.com coupled with rabid inability to understand simple economics…
The major difference from the ScotsNat variety is that it has an antidote date limited to May 2010 when reality intervenes.
272
Ah yes.
Like using all Easter Islands timber resources to build statues and then be unable to build fishing boats..
FactCheck: dodgy claims of 2009
http://www.channel4.com/news/articles/uk/factcheck+dodgy+claims+of+2009/3482972
Private Eye - one year ago:
“The tribunal’s verdict that the Screws is run by liars and bullies has prompted an urgent inquest at Wapping, though it remains to be seen if anyone will be offered up as a sacrifice. What of the Conservative Party, which now employs the bully-in-chief as its director of communications [Coulson]?”
“Tory spinners have been in overdrive since Christmas, warning hacks not to run anything on the damning judgement for fear of antagonising ‘the chap who’ll run the next government’”
http://www.littletonchambers.com/Administration/uploads/File/Private%20Eye.pdf
Since then, there’s been a virtual news blackout on this story on all News International media outlets.
Tories + NI = News censorship
O/T Just tried naming all the world’s past and present Communist regimes on Sporcle…. Some weird African ones!
http://www.sporcle.com/games/communist_countries.php
135.
Perhaps Mike’s wager on Gordon Brown not leading Labour in the G.E. is looking good value !
Former Cabinet minister Charles Clarke has called on the Cabinet to stage a New Year coup to remove Gordon Brown as Prime Minister.
http://uk.news.yahoo.com/21/20091230/tuk-clarke-urges-coup-to-oust-pm-brown-6323e80.html
277
Gabble …
Obscure poster posts obscure link…
Yawn …………………
278. Got 16/24 and missed most of the African ones…..
279. Herbert Proper Snr December 30th, 2009 at 6:37 pm
I think Clarke misguided if they think they can replace him (Brown) now at this late stage. The die is cast, the electorate will not take to such a cyncial move well.
Besides it has to be remembered how many cabinet ministers are now Lords and simply placemen of Gordon Brown - they all go withy Brown if he falls. I can think of just a handful in the cabinet who might be able to do better on their own without Brown. These are Mandelson (Lord) Harriet Harmen and Jake Straw. Darling is tied to Gordon Brown either way so he is stuffed.
That is well short of a majority of his cabinet and so Brown remains.
Clarke never ceases to amaze me for someone who is supposed to be intellegent he comes up with some pretty stupid ideas!
If Brown does cease to be PM before the end of Febuary I win hundreds of pounds! :smile;
275 The Easter Islanders built their sea going boats from reeds, a sufficiency of which existed and still exist so the deforestation would not have affected fishing. They were relatively self sufficient in early 18th century.
The collapse (if indeed a collapse rather than a destruction) probably involved scarcity of resources, external contacts, diseases, slavers and maybe climate change, the so called Little Ice Age, which might have affected/been result of changed ocean currents and thus resulted in scarcity of fish, affecting both people & birdlife.
279. Hasn’t he said that before, once or twice?
URW I’ve voted for you, you old curmudgeon
There is a coup aainst Gordon Brown on!
http://www.examiner.co.uk/news/local-west-yorkshire-news/2009/12/30/weds-pm-huddersfield-mp-barry-sheerman-calls-for-gordon-brown-to-resign-86081-25496396/
It is coordinated!
277 - News Censorship?
Perhaps, you can persuade Blair to lift the D notice that he put in force, re the events of May 2004, now that’s proper news censorship.
281. I got 21/24 - missed “Republic” from one and missed 2 others totally.
287 - Wow. Google is your friend on that, though given the subject matter I think a degree of privacy is due…
New thread up
277. So what you are saying is that Coulson is rather good at managing the media. Which is rather satisfactory as that is his job. I would still like to see him on the front benches though, DWP or Home Secretary. Do you think a straight job swap with Grayling would be best? After all, no one handles the breaking of a major story quite the way Grayling does.
On topic, I voted for Morus.
163 I read Collapse, but I’m not convinced by the argument. The three societies he analyses, the Highland Maya, Norse Greenland, and Easter Island, were (by our standards) pretty primitive, living on marginal land, and (as Constan points out) the first and third used up resources on pointless activity at the behest of their priests. The Middle of the three was undone by global cooling.
Off topic, I’ve been looking at the GDP series at the ONS website. There is quite a striking correlation, since 1951, between the political complexion of the government, and rates of GDP growth.
1951-64 (Conservative) Average annual GDP growth 3.1%
1965-70 (Labour) 2.6%
1970-74 (Conservative) 3.8% (but degenerated into hyper-inflation at the end).
1974-79 (Labour) 1.3% (but affected by the mess they inherited)
1979-97 (Conservative) 2.5%
1997-2009 (Labour) 2.1% (but falling to 1.8% in the current decade).
So, if (like the Green Party) you do think that economic growth is a bad thing, you ought to vote Labour.
292 see 180 any view.