Is this the New Year’s message that Labour didn’t want to hear?
December 31st, 2009
What do we make of Kellner’s assessments?
There’s a good assessment of the scale of the challenge facing Labour in the latest News Statesman from the president of YouGov, Peter Kellner, in which he examines the elements behind the recent revival in the party’s hopes.
Kellner’s themes will be familiar to PB regulars.
“The Conservatives’ poll lead has been shrinking.” “Well, up to a point….One much-reported MORI poll, in November, put the lead at just 6 points, but this now looks like an outlier. Apart from a brief rise in Labour’s support in the days following the pre-Budget report, most polls have shown the Tory lead remaining in double figures..”
“They need an 11-point lead to secure an overall majority.”“That figure assumes that the national swing is reflected in the marginal seats the Tories are targeting. There is some evidence - such as a recent YouGov/Telegraph poll in northern Labour marginals - that the Tories will achieve a higher swing in these seats. Why? Tactical anti-Tory voting, which has benefited Labour in key seats over the past three elections, may start to unwind. If the Tories secure a 9-point lead, they will probably achieve an overall majority…..”
“Governments normally gain ground as general elections approach.” “This used to be true, but not for the past 20 years. The picture is complicated by the way all the polls overstated Labour’s support in 1992, and most did in 1997 and 2001. If we correct the data to allow for the polls’ errors, we find that there was no significant government recovery ahead of the last four general elections….”
“If Britain’s economy is seen to start growing again, this could help Labour further.” “This must be one of the party’s great hopes… But we should be cautious. The economy did remarkably well between 1993 and 1997, yet this did little to help the reputation of John Major’s troubled government, which had been shot to pieces by the events of Black Wednesday, 16 September 1992. Labour, likewise, will be burdened at the coming election by the vast Budget deficit and memories of last winter’s sharp recession. I expect economic recovery to help Labour a little, but not much.”
It’s that last judgement that is the most controversial - certainly within Labour ranks. But as I always remind people John Major’s government was leading on “the economy” in the final ICM polls before the 1997 general election - and we all know what happened.
Unless something happens that totally changes the agenda it’s hard to see anything other than David Cameron entering Downing Street.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
1st.
O/T What has happened to the little league tables that Gabble used to spend ages researching, as there was always one way of twisting the numbers to illustrate have moderate and short this recession has been? Surely it can’t be true that there’s no way to spin the numbers… no matter how desperate you are…
Labour will lose no doubt but the interesting thing is what will happen to the LD vote and that will ultimatley determine whether DC gets a 30 majority or an 80 one
I see we have a new republic in Europe. Before we all get too excited it’s Sweden! And some more lazy translation from the Grauniad team in Berlin.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/dec/30/auschwitz-sign-stolen-terror-plot
” the home of the president, Fredrik Reinfeldt.”
The article link doesn’t seem to work.
http://www.newstatesman.com/uk-politics/2010/01/labour-lead-government
Good analysis from PK. It mirrors a lot of the debates held on pb.com.
The markets have had an unseasonal attack of the sensibles. NOM has come in for heavy support at 3.80-3.95 and a LAB Overall was last matched at 19.5.CON Overall brushed 1.49 which is huge.
Stealthy support for the Lib Dems on extrabet and their effective Spread is 54-55.
re 5. It does now - thanks.
Although it may be true that the Tories leading on the economy in 1997, that doesn’t mean that the issue wasn’t shifting votes. In previous elections they hadn’t just been even on the economy - they’d been well ahead.
According to a previous Kellner piece (talking about the BBC’s exit poll by NOP:
“Labour matched the Tories in 1997 when voters were asked which party they trusted most to take the right decisions about the economy - a far cry from 1992, when the Tories led Labour on this issue by 53%-33%”
http://www.bbc.co.uk/politics97/analysis/kellner.shtml
To win elections, the Tories need a substantial lead on the economy. If they lose that, they lose lots of votes.
(Not saying that the economy will actually recover enough for Labour to seriously gain ground, but if it does, they will.)
Note to Graham Only comments with a poster’s proper email address are acceptable. The one you provided is not.
re 8. “To win elections, the Tories need a substantial lead on the economy. If they lose that, they lose lots of votes.
On what do you base that?
Labour’s failure has been political.
The picture is complicated by the way all the polls overstated Labour’s support in 1992, and most did in 1997 and 2001.
He obviously reads PB, as it seems to be the only place where this fact is understood and accepted.
FPT
I wasn’t around when the petrol price thread was up and running, but seeing as I am an oil chap, I still wanted to have a say.
Expectations for oil prices are by and large for them to remain flat in 2010. OPEC has too much spare capacity, however much demand recovers.
Relative petrol prices (Petrol/Crude) will not improve much either as refinery capacity utilisations are low and rising prices will be met by rising volumes.
If the value of the pound falls against the dollar, prices will rise.
Increases in taxes will have an impact.
In total, I don’t see a big increase in petrol prices over the election time frame. However, our Dave will have it much more difficult, as crude will be back above $100 per barrel by the end of his first term.
Interesting companion piece
http://www.newstatesman.com/uk-politics/2010/01/labour-brown-election-cameron
PK ignores the biggest reason why Labour won’t recover - they have simply nothing to offer which, it can reasonably be argued, will make this country a better place over the next five years. Has anyone heard a distinctive or decent Socialist policy for their fourth term? I haven’t. The only thing they offer is “we’re not the Tories”, which may have had some traction with swing voters in ‘97 and ‘01 but has much less importance now.
If Brown comes up with a set of popular and distinctive policies, they might have a prayer. Otherwise, probably not.
13 At last James Macintyre has the decency to head it “Fantasy Politics”. Although he does then try to give the impression it might actually be predictive, by listing his “successes” in his 2009 version. Except, he keeps quiet about how the Labour Party were supposed to go into 2010 ahead of the Tories - not 10% (and some) behind!
And he gets paid for putting these wet dreams on to paper?
Charles Clarke gets it- see Iain Dale http://www.iaindale.blogspot.com/
‘Unless something happens that totally changes the agenda it’s hard to see anything other than David Cameron entering Downing Street.’
Anyone who has studied politics will know this is absolute nonsense. There is no certainty like this. Cameron’s victory may appear probable but to state that it is ‘hard to see anything other’ is either hyperbole or ignorance.
With over 5 months to go, and the Tories hovering around the 40% mark, any number of results are still possible.
p.s. Is the News Statesman [sic] a new publication?
I suspect that there will be a small but noticeable short-lived poll boost to Labour at the point at which we formally exit recession. We saw similar phenomena occurring in France and Germany.
The point not mentioned in the article, that blows any hopes of a substantial Labour recovery, is “Gordon Brown - five more years” and the difficulty of selling that across the country.
The Times cartoon has Gordon and Labour well and trully bang t orights
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/cartoon/
Enjoy
Lost a post
Gordo “fans” will enjoy this cartoon
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/cartoon/
11. I would hope that Peter Kellner, of all people, should be able to have worked it out for himself!
Off topic, William Hill appear to have taken down their “will Gordon Brown lead Labour into the next election?” market, which is a shame.
On topic, this article is a good summary of the challenges facing Labour as we go into 2010. It’s not obvious where the good news that Labour needs is going to come from. The only bit of good news that Labour has really had in the last few months is that David Cameron has been seemingly treading water rather than powering ahead. But there is no guarantee that he will continue to do so, and if he rediscovers the form that he had for the previous four years, Labour is probably stuffed.
13 It’s a good companion piece for the famous Sion Simon article.
Remember, James Macintyre thought that Labour would be ahead in the polls by now.
Strange! whenever Yougov publishes a poll, (an oddity no doubt) even mildly encouraging to Labour, this site is packed with posters decrying it and calling Kellner a Labour stooge: where are they this morning?
23 Kellner is a realist Labour stooge, perhaps?
On topic, yes, it’s a very sensible set of observations.
The point I’d make about the economy as an issue is that it’s not just the relative ‘trust most’ figures that matter but the importance factor as well.
Labour is no doubt thinking back to 1992 when the Tories were most trusted on the economy, despite having lead Britain into a recession. It was the handling of it that mattered most. By 1997, Labour was more trusted in relative terms but also the economy as an issue had declined relative to others.
So lies Labour’s great hope - that because the economy is so strongly out in front as an issue of importance, a recovery will feed through to polling numbers.
I’m not convinced. That inserts an extra function that I’m far from convinced that they’ve got right. I would expect an improvement in the ‘most trusted on the economy’ ratings to feed directly to the headline numbers; I’m much less sure that a recovery of itself will affect the ‘most trusted’ numbers strongly.
Why? Firstly, we’re last out. “This recovery, which started in America [or wherever] …”, gives no credit to the government. Secondly, it was a very deep and long recession - that undermines the claims to effective management. Thirdly, as in 1945, the challenges of the recovery are different from those of the battle. Being most trusted on yesterday’s challenge is not necessarily a help. Fourthly, it’s too close: people tend to vote on personal economics (inflation, unemployment, interest rates) rather than abstract (current account, GDP growth). Unless they feel the recession ending, it may not have much impact on ratings. Fifthly, mentioning a different sort of ratings, there’s still a chance of a downgrade. Personally, I don’t think it will happen before the election and even if it does may not have much impact (bankers? what do they know?) but if it does, it will at least (a) knock off some of the gloss and (b) focus attention on the deficit.
I tend to agree with PSJ at [14]: where’s the vision thing?
Odds on Bercow surviving?
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6972005.ece
I noticed in the comments a UKIPer referring to Cameron as Scameron, could catch on.
25 David, good piece. I think Labour’s problems in 2010 lie in this:
“people tend to vote on personal economics (inflation, unemployment, interest rates)”
all of which have the prospect of only getting worse this year. You might have included “personal taxes” to the list - but the same applies.
25. David, it’s not just a broad, strategic vision they lack - it’s any distinctive, detailed policies at all as far as I can see. It is quite unbelievable. I’ve never, ever seen a government that reminds me more of the Vicar of Bray.
And even more unbelivable that they have the nerve to call Cameron lightweight and lacking in policies and substance.
9…Mr Smithson,to which graham are you refering?
Serf:
outside Saudi, I don’t see much spare opec capacity, and i see continued fall offs in mexico, the north sea, etc. sure, iraq should recover some, but i don’t see any big new oil projects coming on stream in 2010. remember, we have 3-4m barrels of depletion to make up *every* year.
(the picture is, of course, completely different for gas…)
Did anyone hear PD James kebab Mark Thompson about BBC Eexecutive Pay on the Today programme about 0820? It’s worth going on to the Iplayer to have a listen. Thompson ended up stuttering away and expounding total nonsense.
Today should sign here up straight away.
OT, but……..
many will be aware of the road gritting problems that there are (and pavements are another story). However, it is likely to get a whole lot worse………..I understand that supplies are generally low and that this is likely to result in a form of “rationing” to highway auhorities. But the reason we are all going to find things much worse are those wonderful words: “the government is to take control”!
Prayers for a thaw are welcomed!!
33, the Supreme Leader has promised to make sure every road, pavement, track, nature trail and public footpath will be 100% free of ice, snow and slush for a thousand years.
He has also warned that the elitist opposition, led by Lord High Prince General Sir David Cameron, will only clear the roads of those willing to pay him one million pounds.
31 Robert, spot on in highlighting depletion of exisiting oil production. Secondary and tertiary recovery techniques have added extra years of field life from when the production facilities were comissioned, but there are limits. Getting from producing say 30% of the oil in a reservoir to 40% is one thing, but getting that to 50% quite another.
Mexico’s Cantarell field alone has lost over a million barrels a day of production since 2007. And the rate of exploration success has been disappointing too. Even the huge one-and-a-half billion barrel Jubilee/Mahogany field recently discovered in Ghana will last the world about three weeks.
(Gas is different - but it relies upon building the infrastructure to be able to move it to market.)
Could be interesting!
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/veil-may-be-lifted-on-infamous-westland-meeting-1854167.html
Didn’t Whitelaw say,’I though he, (Hezza) had gorn out for a pee’
27. For those of us not lulled into forgetting why the Tories were known-even by ex Shadow Ministers-as ‘the nasty party’ there are encouraging signs that reminders are reaching a wider public.
Reading Coldstone’s article one’s mind drifts back to ugly days of ‘One of Us’ ‘Wets and Dries”Semi detached’…. and confirms we are seeing a Thatcherite Trojen Horse being led into government by the wily David Cameron.
34 Morris Dancer
Does that mean the proletariat will have to sweep the 3000 richest estates?
I mean, I actually think the inheritance tax cut is a good idea intrinsically, but a fantastically bad idea given that the priority should be on cutting the deficit. But the more I hear Gordon Brown and Ed Balls talk about the “3000 richest estates”, the more I warm to the Tory IHT proposal.
A nice way to end the year.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-1239578/RICHARD-KAY-Male-fans-BBC-newsreader-Jane-Hill-brace-disappointment.html
That’ll send a few imaginations into overdrive, (not mine of course) when she reads the news.
Morning all. I am back from the coldest wedding EVER. They hired a marquee for the bar, in December, in FERMANAGH!
Madness.
Wot no mention of swingback?
I’m sure this was posted yesterday but I wonder how many more examples of Thatcher’s ’shocking racism’ will be revealed in the next six months following the 30 year rule. What a family!
http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2009/dec/30/30-year-rule-thatcher-papers-released
37 Roger wishful thinking by you. The nasty party has been the Labour Administration 1997-2010 which is unapologetic for lying to the country and taking us into a costly and illegal war in Iraq.
The behaviour in the Labour party for the next 5 months will simply resemble the stewards on the titanic re-arranging the deckchairs just as the watchman shouts “iceberg”.
At least Harold Wilson and Jim Callaghan led reasonably honest governments, Blair and Brown can not be said to have done the same and no doubt right now senior civil servants are ensuring lots of minutes and notes are not shredded so that the incoming Tory ministers can see just how many lies have been told over the past 13 years.
Labour will lose because people do hate this government and the ongoing Iraq inquiry will remind them why.
Worth a look
http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/john-rentoul/john-rentoul-maybe-tories-arent-so-stupid-after-all-1853851.html
37 - Roger
The nasty party or the incompetent party? I guess the electorate will have to decide.
37 There is an election for Speaker at the start of every parliament. It is traditionally uncontested.
So what is so “nasty” about the election being contested and MPs getting to vote for a Speaker they want? I fail to see why it should be an issue for Cameron. In any case, hopefully Bercow will lose his seat (I’d rather like to see Farage in Parliament, and would vote for him if I lived in Buckingham) and they will have to have an election anyway.
Like most establishment lefties, you seem to think that once people with a certain type of acceptable political opinions get elected to office, they should be allowed to stay around regardless of the electorate’s opinion. Well, unfortunately democracy is nasty in this way, the electorate - in this case MPs, usually hoi polloi - get to choose if we want people to stay in office. If we don’t want them to, they lose their jobs.
I repeat my call for any MPs who lose their seats in the coming election, not to be appointed to the Lords. It is a fundamental part of democracy that when we fire people, they stay fired.
42 - ER, the worry is that the next five months will be more like the Titanic stewards taking an axe to the lifeboats…
36. Ancient ‘news’ concerning people who are now either retired or dead.
There are several reasons why the economy didn’t rescue the Tories in 1997, as I wrote about earlier in the year on PB2 ( http://politicalbetting.blogspot.com/2009/09/why-wasnt-it-economy-stupid-in-1997.html ). In particular, recovery still left high levels of economic worry and uncertainty, which I suspect is what we’ll see in 2010 too.
41 Yes it was posted yesterday, and surprise surprise it was pointed out that yes, Poles and Hungarians do have more cultural similarities with the British as European culture is closer to our own. And in any case I do not think that it is “racism” to predict that if tens of thousands of Vietnamese were housed in the UK it would cause riots. Surely that is just a prediction, which may be right or may be wrong. Racism is believing that persons of certain origins and appearance are inferior, and there is no evidence that Maggie believed that.
42
At least Harold Wilson and Jim Callaghan led reasonably honest governments,
Don’t remember too many Tories saying that at the time.
So! being a little bit speculative this morning Easterross
If Obama decides, (it could happen) to take military action against Iran, even perhaps an invasion. Would you expect a Cameron government to support him, perhaps stand, ‘Shoulder too shoulder’ on the battlefield, how would you feel about that?
46 They’d already had to sell the lifeboats before the ship set sail.
Oh, and the Captain has radiod all ships in the area to tell them how wonderfully he has navigated through the ice field. We are best placed to reach port first.
And he’s forbidden the making of rafts.
32. PD James was a heroine. The interview with Thompson was the highlight but her editing of Today altogether was brilliant, showing what kind of programme it could be if someone of her calibre and independence was at the reins. It also showed up quite how lacklustre and partisan it’s become. I now nominate PD James’ interview with Thompson as the interview of the year. Shame PD isn’t leading the country.
David Herdson @ 21
(Shame Faced) I failed to realise just who he was.
Our host’s observations on Buckingham and Bedford are interesting. I follow his logic better in Bedford than in Buckingham. UKIP face the following problems in Buckingham:
1) John Bercow’s enormous majority
2) John Bercow’s status as Speaker (which will have weight both as a matter of perceived convention and because opposing him looks like kicking a man wearing glasses)
3) UKIP start from a standing start
4) Nigel Farage is not Martin Bell and doesn’t have the aura of him either
5) UKIP will not get the tacit support of Labour and the Lib Dems; the most that they can hope for is that John Bercow will not get it either
It probably is sound for Nigel Farage to stand in Buckingham, because it will give the UKIP campaign a focus it wouldn’t otherwise have. His chances of getting elected, however, look to me like a fairly long shot.
Robert @ 31
For 2010, we can cover depletion. OPEC cut 4 million bpd (unofficially 3 million). Also Canadian tar sands have been running at low capacities. There is plenty of small stuff coming on stream.
The problem happens in 2011, if and when the global economy is back firing on all cylinders.
Bercow will not lose in Buckingham. My bets are widely publicised. I will accept almost any sums. (Certainly four figure bets, perhaps five.)
And Cameron will not challenge Bercow’s speakership. Trust me, Mr Cameron has far greater things to worry about than the speakership. That said, immediately post the election, I suspect Mr Bercow will pay a visit to Mr Cameron’s office, where it will be pointed out to him that: (a) there could be a speaker election if Mr Bercow doesn’t play ball, and (b) that Mr Bercow was only in the HoC because the Conservative Party had chosen not to contest Buckingham.
Again, I’m happy to offer 3/1 that Bercow - if elected to the HoC - will not be elected speaker. As above, pretty much any size.
26. In 1992 people didn’t vote for the Tories, they voted for John Major whose personal ratings were way ahead of his party’s and Kinnock’s. He was liked because he was a change from Thatcher’s patrician style.
In contrast Brown’s personal ratings are down in the toilet and I can’t really see dodging eggs while standing on a soapbox and generally leading from the front as Major did back then!
55 You are probably right. However I am concerned at the phrase “Cameron will not challenge Bercow’s speakership”. It should be for MPs to decide who is Speaker, not the Prime Minister. Our parliamentarians need to get some cullions.
26 it’s the economy (David Herdson)
Fourthly, it’s too close: people tend to vote on personal economics (inflation, unemployment, interest rates) rather than abstract (current account, GDP growth). Unless they feel the recession ending, it may not have much impact on ratings.
Indeed. And for electoral purposes, the economic fortunes of erstwhile government voters are crucial. It is mainly the less well off who have lost their jobs, and credit card and loan rates have not fallen anything like as much as mortgage rates.
This also accounts for 1997, when Conservative supporters had been hammered by ERM-induced high interest rates and negative equity.
50 ….but don’t worry, the men in the boiler rooms are adequately equipped with thimbles to bail out the water and extra funding has been made available to give them egg cups by 2013, after they are built in 2014….
Meanwhile the issue we should all be focussing on is that Mr Cameron’s only policy is that he wants to stop the ship’s staff plundering the state rooms of wealthy guests who die during the voyage. Despicable Tory that man.
Roger & coldstone, the election is about the future and a judgement on the recent past. What happened 30 years ago is of interest perhaps to those past their late forties who remember it but has little bearing on the choice next March or May.
A comment piece in the Times is worth a precis just to bring out what the reality is that Gordon Brown delivered.
The 4.75 per cent by which Alistair Darling expects the British economy will have shrunk in 2009 … will… have been the steepest fall since 1921 ….
This loss of wealth is not temporary. The Treasury estimates that some 5 per cent of productive capacity has been wiped out by the financial crisis; and even so, the remaining margin of spare capacity could be as large as 6 per cent of gross domestic product — a gap between actual and potential performance that could take half a decade to close.
…. the Treasury does not expect to get overall public debt back down to its target 40 per cent of GDP until well into the 2030s.
.. Mr Brown was on the button with his “No more boom or bust”. There has been no Labour boom on his watch. Only, er, bust.
Since the beginning of this century, ….the British economy has averaged a mere 1.7 per cent annual growth in real terms — the weakest performance since Attlee’s Government in the 1940s. And the next time a Labour politician bangs on about Thatcher having destroyed Britain’s manufacturing base… under new Labour, manufacturing output has contracted by 1.2 per cent every year, down to around 12 per cent of GDP. ….
Mr Brown’s new year pledge to “go for growth” and a decade of “fairly shared” prosperity is thus unlikely to convince even Labour voters, let alone the markets. The recovery looks as anaemic as the housing market; unemployment, far from starting to drop as Mr Brown predicts, is expected to rise by a further 300,000 or so by June; no one except Mr Darling expects growth anywhere near 3.5 per cent in 2011; and, above all, a government seen to be in denial about past misjudgments cannot instil confidence in the future.
….
….
The Prime Minister’s vacuous new year attack on Tory honesty about Britain’s parlous public finances — “We want to build our country up, not talk Britain down” — confirms that, in spirit, he has already left No 10. He is far more comfortable in Cloud Cuckooland, his chosen and, if the new year wish of millions comes true, his soon-to-be permanent abode. ..
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/rosemary_righter/article6971960.ece
It is worth remembering that Cameron held not inconsiderable poll leads for a long period of time over the Blair-led pre-recession Labour party. This was confirmed, if you like, by local election results in 2007, for example, that were not exactly good for the governing party.
At that time I felt that one of the reasons Cameron was in the lead was because he was a feel-good politician who was promising to “share the proceeds of growth”, which looked good against an old and tired government. Even though the government might have claimed credit for the then, apparent, good state of the economy.
A return to growth could even make matters worse for Labour. I don’t think there are any sunny uplands left for them.
Well, I’m not sure that the Canadian tar sands are that much below capacity. I was in Fort McMurray in May, seeing Suncor’s facilities, and despite the fact that oil was $60 or so at the time, they were running at full capacity. (I am aware that Suncor is one of the low cost operators in the region.)
There is certainly tar sands production to come on in 2010 - I think Shell’s Stotford Upgrader comes on this year - but it’s pretty modest as part of the overall picture.
Serf
We’ll be back to $150 a barrel in that scenario.
Except with sterling having depreciated 25% against the dollar and fuel duty having been increased since the last time at that price.
Things are likely to get very nasty over the next few years for the UK economy.
I don’t really understand this continued preoccupation with Bercow. Is not the consensus that Bercow has proved himself to be a very capable speaker - far from the New Labour stooge that some feared? Why, given that, would any apart from the ’swivel-eyed’ minority want to see him removed? And, of course, he will trounce Farage.
49 Coldstone very simple answer. If the UN passes resolutions supporting a war against Iran I would almost certainly support it. If the UN does not pass suitable resolutions I will oppose it even if Cameron does take us in.
Is that clear enough?
41 No, Roger, she was worried about race riots. Is it racist to dislike the thought of race riots?
And why do you say “what a family”? My memory is dimming by the day, but I don’t recall Mrs Thatcher’s children making charming and entirely unscripted appearances into five consecutive interviews she gave to the press. They were not props. So how do they come into it?
So, according to PK, the Tories will need JUST a 9-point lead for an overall maajority? What kind of democracy do we now have in this country? We have progressed from the rotten boroughs of the 19th century to a rotten country of the 21st - where it takes (approx) 25,000 votes to elect a Labour MP, 50,000 to elect a Tory MP and nearly 100,000 to elect a Lib-Dem MP (from 2005 election). A rotten democratic system where if the three main parties had all polled 30% at the 2005 election then Labour would have got 317 seats, the Tories 202 seats and the Liberal-Democrats just 94 seats. Is this the mother of Parliaments or the harlot of democracy? Why isn’t there more comment on the blatant, systemic bias in our democracy?
10
With all due respect to OGH, political AND economic.
60. Ted
“And the next time a Labour politician bangs on about Thatcher having destroyed Britain’s manufacturing base… under new Labour, manufacturing output has contracted by 1.2 per cent every year, down to around 12 per cent of GDP. ….”
This fact has been reported in the FT, Mail and Times now (maybe others as well) in the last few days.
PBers with good memories might remember that I pointed this out several months ago on this site.
PB.com always first with the news.
60
Maybe, but knowing the past, ensures you understand the present, the future? well that’s another country.
I’ll be interested to see the litany of failure, (of course you’ll paint it as a success) at the end of four years of Cameron government. I wonder,if Cameron will be a name to place alongside Heath at the top of the Tory hate list by then.
67
see the link on 43
48. JL. You leave me no choice but to quote:
“But the Downing Street papers also disclose a shocking degree of personal racism in her own response to the Vietnamese boat people, initially resisting an informal UN request that Britain take 10,000 refugees on the grounds that there would be riots in the streets if they were given council housing ahead of “white citizens”. She made clear to her cabinet colleagues that she had “less objection to refugees such as Rhodesians, Poles and Hungarians, since they could more easily be assimilated into British society”.
You can read this forward or backwards but if this isn’t racist then the word has no meaning. I notice you left out ‘Rhodesians’ with Poles and Hungarians.
Time and sentiment are now the key factors. Its only 4 months till May the 6th wether we get technical growth or not we aren’t going to get anything that feels like growth.
71: Nothing like pre-judging a person before they’ve done anything is there?
I can’t see Brown’s risible new year promises to go for growth impressing too many people. Especially as we are likely to enter the election period with national income per head actually lower than at the time of the 2005 GE….
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/recession/6912970/GDP-per-person-in-Britain-dips-below-2005-levels.html
67. Constan Trader. “And why do you say “what a family”?” (More to follow)
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/georgepitcher/4527934/Carol-Thatchers-golliwog-comment-was-offensive-and-racist-but-how-many-heard-it.html
73 Oddly enough, Roger, saying that acknowledging that integration is harder for some than others, and that some of those here will react badly is not racism but simply an accurate statement. You only have to look at the problems we face today.
64, John B - you are right, Bercow has shown himself not to be a Labour stooge, and at times has been bordering on the competent. Given that he hasn’t had any practice at the job (by being a Deputy Speaker) he’s not doing too badly IMO.
I would like to see Farage in Parliament, not because I am generally a UKIP supporter, but because I like to see diverse views represented, and because it may do something, however small, to stiffen the Tories’ Eurosceptic resolve.
However what I do object to is the Shock! Horror! stories that Bervow might lose his seat, or may face a contested election for Speakership, and This Is A Crisis For Cameron! He Must Do Something About It.
It is no such thing. The speaker being challenged, either in his seat or in Parliament, is simply part of the normal commerce of democracy and should be unremarkable.
One thing I don’t understand - Bercow is supposed to be independent. How then can local Tories openly & officially support him? How can Cameron say that any local Tories campaigning against him should be disciplined? Surely this is tacitly saying he is the Tories’ man. Surely the Speaker should have a cross-party local re-election committee? Either that or the main parties should express no view at all about who should be elected.
74. YS - correct.
73: Doesn’t sound like racism to me, unless you glibly take the guardians line that it is.
Could easily be re-written as ‘Thatcher was concerned about the pratical implications of housing a large number of refugees from outside Europe and the Commonwealth, with the practial difficulties this would have in terms of language and religion.’
61. Timothy (likes zebras). Interesting point. Cameron has had a hard year and understandably has not projected the cheerful optimism of his early years as leader. Of course it has hardly been appropriate in these economic conditions, but that has been matched by his more heavy hearted mood.
Boris, on the other hand, does optimism like no other politician. He’s not bothering to knock ideas of an economic recovery as a political ploy - he’s simply placing himself at the forefront of economic recovery in London. He has a great deal more credibility in his upbeat message than gloomy old Gordon.
http://playpolitical.typepad.com/london_mayor/2009/12/boris-johnsons-upbeat-new-year-video.html
75
All the elements are in place, ‘A Liberal/Conservative’ leading a party which will want tax cuts and massive reduction in public spending, and will be impatient for both.
Let battle begin!
62 “It is worth remembering that Cameron held not inconsiderable poll leads for a long period of time over the Blair-led pre-recession Labour party.” (Timothy (likes zebras))
Iraq. Hence, as widely predicted beforehand, the Brown bounce (quickly dissipated by a series of inane stunts from Number Ten).
74. YS
Indeed.
In fact if as expected qtr4 shows growth and then qtr1 falls back again then we’ve already had the ‘feel good factor’. Did anyone notice it? Now what do we have to look forward to over the next few months are:
Rising tax
Rising inflation
Rising unemployment
Rising debt
More shops shutting down
No pay rises
People will not appreciate Brown and Balls telling them they’ve been saved.
37
We can but hope.
Any sign of the last poll of 2009?
84. John L - Cameron’s poll bounce can’t simply be attributed to Iraq. If this was the case, why didn’t Howard fare better in the polls?
Ted. Don’t you think it relevant that the current crop of Shadow Cabinet Ministers including the leader were attracted to a Party dominated by a leader who held those views?
73, Roger, I re-read that bit before I posted so you posting it doesn’t make any difference. And I left out the Rhodies by accident. However they quite clearly have more cultural similarity with the British than Vietnamese do.
If Maggie had said “we don’t want Vietnamese, they are all drug addicts and criminals” you could have an argument for saying that she was racist, but she actually seems to have argued against this with Andrei Kosygin, who presumably you would say cannot be a racist because he is a lefty.
Strangely enough, conservatives (small “C”) believe that immigration should be managed in such a way as to be in the best interests of those already living in the target country, and that citizenship is a private members club and the existing members have the right to decide who else joins. You can accuse us of “racism” for this if you like, but generally speaking the shout of “racist!” is becoming the last refuge of a scoundrel, when all else has failed other than to smear.
Morning,gents and ladies. Good morning,Twins.
I will delay my report on Seat Bands and instead report on the swiftly changing shape of the markets.
‘Overall Majority’ is the only game in town right now and I would be best off concentrating on that alone and leaving all the rest aside.
Last Traded Prices @ 98.2%
NOM 3.85
CON 1.49
LAB 19.5
Two of these are rogue prices but the NOM price looks genuine enough. In the absence of fresh polls, I predict that NOM will not go above 4.0 but could go as low as 3.60.
At 1.49 a CON MAJ is just sumptuous, but even the more realistic 19.5 for a LAB MAJ is still not big enough. It could be trading material but no more than that.
Bet365 offer 10/1 that GB will quit as PM b4 next GE. listed under new year specials 2010.
89. Roger - have you ever heard the expression ‘flogging a dead horse’?
Agreed DC Prime Minister but probably not with an overall majority, unless the Conservatives have a very good election campaign and Labour a very bad one.The Lib Dems and others will do their relatively successful thing seperate to the main two.
41
Sheesh. The left are still thinking about the family of a PM who came to power thirty years ago and left it the thick end of twenty years ago? You’d think they’d be focusing on something a tad more urgent, like Nemesis coming over their electoral horizon. OTOH, they’ve probably given up, and if the Brownies want to squander their vestigial political energy looking back in anger instead of engaging with what the electorate wants today and tomorrow (and formulating their apologies for the $h1te they have inflicted on us), well, whatever gets you through the day. San Fairy Ann.
56.OK Robert, you’re probably right to take big bets on Buckingham, but don’t bet the firm, OK. There are still possible enemies who could move against Bercow within the Conservatives.
A backbench Tory ex-minister said that if Mr Bercow does hold his seat, Tory MPs are determined to do a ‘reverse Bercow’ by electing Mr Field, who is unpopular with Labour MPs for criticising the Government.
‘There will be considerable support for Frank and many on our benches think he would be a more suitable speaker and reassuring figure for the public,’ one senior Tory said. ‘Electing Frank would give Labour MPs a taste of their own medicine.’
Backbench heavyweight Christopher Chope has been identified by Tory whips as a ringleader of the plot.
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1239515/John-Bercow-faces-new-plot-oust-favour-Frank-Field.html#ixzz0bG9FZKNc
89. I heard the discussion on R4 which Martha Kearney presented yesterday about the newly accessible Thatcher papers. Thatcher stated she favoured admitting refugees fleeing persecution over economic migrants and expressed concern about British working class having fair access to council housing. She could have been more generous to the Vietnamese boat people (as Willie Whitelaw was advocating and following the impressive stance taken by Menachem Begin) but there was nothing *racist* about her position.
[84] - Iraq led principally to a move of Labour voters to the Lib Dems. The Tories were still in their polling box of ~ 30-33%. In the first three Guardian ICM polls after Cameron was elected leader of the Tories, they scored 36% in each one, breaking out of the box.
You’re right to note that Iraq was a millstone around Blair’s neck, to the extent that I’m surprised at the infatuation with him displayed by some contributors to the site. Winning back the Iraq voters almost by default gave Brown a chance to do a lot better, but he blew it.
23 - “Remember, James Macintyre thought that Labour would be ahead in the polls by now.”
Didnt he say that they would be ahead by the end of the year? There is still time you know!
77. Roger
So, a smear by association based on shared dna. You and gabble can’t even do accusations of racism without disclosing your own racist assumptions. Must try harder, and develop fresh material - Dolly Draper tried this one earlier this year. Look where it got him.
88
Howard in 1998
Howard demands air strikes on Iraq
The Shadow Foreign Secretary Michael Howard has called for air strikes on Iraq following Baghdad’s refusal to hand over documents to United Nations weapons inspectors.
Mr Howard said that the Prime Minister, Tony Blair, and the US President, Bill Clinton, should attack without warning and try to remove Saddam Hussein from office.
“It is beginning to look as if yet again, and very predictably, Saddam Hussein is not keeping his promises,” he told BBC Radio’s Today programme. “If that’s right, I hope Western leaders will keep their promises and take action.”
Mr Howard’s comments came after the Iraqi Government rejected a request by the head of the UN weapons inspectors, Richard Butler, calling the demand “provocative”.
Iraqi officials said some of the documents did not exist, others had been destroyed or had already been handed to the UN inspectors
Mr Howard urged Western leaders to take a firm stance and criticised the Foreign Secretary, Robin Cook, for making “empty threats”.
“It ought to be a prime objective of western policy to get rid of Saddam Hussein,” he said.
Meanwhile, Prime Minister Tony Blair was said to be studying “extremely carefully” Iraq’s refusal to hand over the documents. “We regard this response as a bad sign,” said a Downing Street spokesman, who stressed that the UK was fully behind the United Nations Special Commission (Unscom) team.
“We are monitoring the situation extremely carefully. Iraq’s already chalking up black marks,” added the spokesman.
‘Cook walks tall, acts small’
But Michael Howard insists that action is required.
“Nothing is easy in this matter but the trouble is that throughout a long time now, particularly from Robin Cook, we have had far too many empty threats,” he said.
The former home secretary also said a lack of firm action in the former Yugolsav republic of Kosovo had led to “so many people being raped and killed and driven from their homes”.
Mr Howard said Mr Cook had “walked tall and acted small”.
He stressed the danger of situation and the urgent need to address it immediately and resolutely.
“We are talking about weapons of mass destruction in the hands of a rogue regime which has shown it is ready to act in the most brutal way.
“If the West is not resolute, the consequences … would be absolutely dreadful for humanity,” he said.
Hmmm and that was years before the, ‘dodgy dossier’
Of course Howard did show some signs of, ‘wavering’ when he became leader, but a phone call from the Whitehouse, saying, ‘When you come-a-calling the Prez. won’t be in’ soon brought him back in line and he was then saying he believed in, ‘Regime change plus’
Peter Kellner’s article is spot-on.
On the economy in particular, Labour supporters are kidding themselves. My fellow POTY at 74, and another richard at 85, have it right; there is no time for economy to recover sufficiently to give a feel-good factor, and every chance that economic shocks (such as corporate failures, tax rises, falls in sterling, and announcements or leaks of major job losses in the public sector) will come as a shock to those who still remain over-optimistic about the hard slog ahead. In fact, one of the biggest mistakes Labour can make is to talk up the ‘recovery’ at a time when no recovery will be visible to ordinary people. This is the Norman Lamont ‘green shoots’ gaffe, and it is one which Brown seems to be repeating.
Roger et al are playing a dangerous game by drawing attention to Thatcher’s immigration policy. They may remind electors that Labour’s policy is to open the floodgates and keep them open, and then to create a state within a state by requiring legal residents to carry ID cards.
It’s a useful reality check - we are IMO reasonably close to denying the Tories an overall majority, but we need a significant shift before we can seriously talk about winning.
I don’t think that any of the parties is being very successful in getting a positive message across - there’s a danger that the election will be “We’re a change from horrid Labour” vs “We’re not the horrid Tories”, which won’t be a very edifying spectacle, though maybe an accurate reflection of what passes for political coverage by the British media.
Both major parties can in fact claim to have a number of interesting ideas (e.g. elderly care for Labour, education changes for the Tories) as well as a general theme (emerge from the recession with public services intact for Labour, tackle the public finances more quickly for the Tories). Rather than go into the rights and wrongs of these ideas, I’m just making the general point that it’s a struggle to get them seriously reported and discussed. The electorate is used to that, though, and perhaps wouldn’t have it any different (seeing that they don’t in general gravitate to more analytical media).
2 minor things in Labour1s favour- and it may be minor factors that count
The socialist left in England will not be fighting this election in a meaningful way in 2010- and will not fight any seat which is vulnerable to Tories or Fascists. There is a 2% vote there for Labour in their marginals to be had for this
Looking at the 100 odd “new” seats the BNP will be fighting as opposed to 2005- of those declared so far they trend towards being solid Labour rather than Labour marginals- so their 3% vote at the expense of Labour will be neither here nor there
102
announcements or leaks of major job losses in the public sector
Fully supported by the Conservatives, who will attack them as not large enough.
101 coldstone - At that time Saddam was developing and deploying weapons of mass destruction. He largely complied with UN resolutions after 1998, largely as a result of pressure of the sort Michael Howard and others were arguing for.
107
No! really! so its Michael Howard we have to thank, I’m so glad you pointed that out to me: Arse!!!!!!!
“emerge from the recession with public services intact for Labour, tackle the public finances more quickly for the Tories”
Sorry, but Labour will have to make the same cuts as the Tories will to have any form of sustainable recovery. That “theme” is just a lie.
56. robert. What odds will you lay me that Bercow will NOT be Speaker on 1/1/2011?
106 coldstone - That doesn’t matter. Labour’s vote is based on fantasy. Take away the fantasy, and you get disillusionment. That will mean Labour supporters either stay at home, or vote for a minority party.
106
I’m sorry you think it doesn’t matter, I thought Mr Cameron was going to usher in a new era of honesty in politics. Therefore if large job losses in the public sector are announced, he should support them, and make his own position clear.
104 Nick P - A genuine question (albeit one I understand you might find to answer in a public forum): Do you really believe that ‘denying the Tories an overall majority’ would be a good thing? I can understand you wanting a Labour government, but in what way would a weak Conservative government be better than one with a working majority?
On Topic, not much to disagree with Kellner on.
Brown going or a huge Cameron gaffe are the only two likely gamechangers.
Robert “I’m a Smithson not a Smithsonite” Smithson has the Bercow situation absolutely covered and is 100% correct.
On history and Thatcher.
I’d be interested in knowing what Margaret knew about he sons role in the Al Yamammamah arms deal as had it become public at the same time as Westland it could have finished her career in disgrace.
113 - “in what way would a weak Conservative government be better than one with a working majority?”
If the difference between the two was holding Broxtowe or not
104…Dr Palmer,do not forget that your party’s antilibertarian legislation and intrusiveness into people’s lives is going to cost you dearly.there will be no denying a Tory majority,kind sir.
Off-topic, but I post from HYS that I concur with:
What does the new year hold for British politics?
garethm2
Added: Thursday, 31 December, 2009, 09:20 GMT 09:20 UK
114 - “Brown going or a huge Cameron gaffe are the only two likely gamechangers.”
Hard to describe either as likely.
And “bingo” for the Mark reference, I believe it’s on my card for today.
112 coldstone - You misunstood me. What I meant is that the contrast will be between the Conservatives being honest about job cuts in the public sector, and Labour planning job cuts but lying about them. Anyone planning to vote Labour because they think current levels of public expenditure can be sustained is buying into a fantasy; take away the fantasy, and there’s nothing left.
119
Well! seeing as just about everything in the public sector has been, ‘ring fenced’ by Mr Scameron, (I like it) I’m at a loss to know what exactly is left to cut.
101 What Howard was calling for was not outwith US & UK Government policy at the time. In late 90’s the UK & US were much more honest about wanting Saddam Hussein out - sanctions, no fly zones, bombing selected targets were all intended to destabilise the regime. Indeed in the USA Congress passed (unanimously in the Senate) and President Clinton signed the Iraq Liberation Act declaring the policy of the United States to be regime change and authorising the US Government to support certain groups in overthrowing Saddam’s regime. It stopped short of authorising full US armed intervention but did permit Clinton to put Operation Desert Fox into action, the bombing campaign by US and British forces.
Blair & Cook seemed quite happy to support regime change in 1998 through use of UK forces.
Richard N at 102: one of the oddities of this recession compared with previous ones is that its impact has so far been very selective. There are plenty of people who are better off than a year ago, purely because of low interest rates - if you have a significant mortgage and a job, you’ve done well, witness the huge acceleration in mortgage repayments as people take the opportunity to crack on with paying off the house. That applies especially in the sort of middle-England marginals, where unemployment remains relatively low (3% in my patch) and home ownership is relatively high. So it’s not an exact parallel to Lamont’s case, when people were reeling from the combination of high unemployment with very high interest rates: a common current position is that people feel their own economy is OK, but they’re worried about the wider scene.
The converse is that people dependent on income from investments and savings are suffering severely from low interest rates, but at the risk of incurring Mike’s wrath I don’t think this is felt as acutely by most people - if you’ve got £200,000 invested and interest rates are low so you need to take out £10,000 that you hoped to get in interest, it’s unpleasant but not desperate, in the we-may-lose-our-home sense of desperate.
Shadsy, following the speculation about the next chairman of the 1922 committee (to replace Sir Michael Spicer):
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6972005.ece
Can you put up some prices for likely replacements (Graham Brady is mentioned in the article)?
Its a second order issue but a very large one for Labour. There will be in political terms a “double dip” recession for them this year at the begining of April as the previously protected Public Sector takes its first hit. To join the christmas anecdote club I had a very pleasent few days back in Yorkshire and public sector friends confirmed what I’m seeing my self. Health, Education and ” hard ” human misery are going to be OK. ” Soft” human misery where Labour has spent heavily is going to get clobbered. Although it offends the poster known as ” Roger” I repeat my view that the sector is acutely sensitive to any changes in what are seen as hallowed pay and conditions and even minor sacrifices ( relatively) will cause loud wailing.
It’s not clear wether I’ll have a “post” myself in 2011/12 though I’m unlikely to be made redundant just shoved into a vacancy I don’t want or can’t actually do. I’ll be alright in that I’m going to try this year to get back into “hard” misery but its a mind set. if your central employment aim is stability and you’ve had that for years/decades you’ll be really angry.
101 - On Howard piece.
Of course he was right on Iraq, regimie change should have been the focus of the wests foreign policy, indeed it should have been done in 1991 to remove Saddams genocidal regime while the genocide of the Kurds was fresh in the memory and before the attack on the Marsh Arabs.
On Kosovo, while being a pleasant change from the appeasers Hurd and Rifkind in the Balkans, Howard was being a little cheap as it is clear that Cook Robertson and Blair were doing all that was humanly possible to drage the US into stopping a Serb war of ethnic cleansing, and thankfully they succeeded, despite the threat of a Russian veto at the UN.
122. All recessions have a selective impact, and it’s largely the same sorts of people who are the big losers every time - those on the margins of the labour market, in highly cyclical industries, or with very weak personal balance sheets.
121
“We are talking about weapons of mass destruction in the hands of a rogue regime which has shown it is ready to act in the most brutal way.
“If the West is not resolute, the consequences … would be absolutely dreadful for humanity,” he said.
So If Clinton/Blair had advocated an invasion, Howard and the Tory Party would have opposed it? I’m sure!
The only party that can claim with any honesty to have opposed the invasion were the Libdems.
I supported it, still do. I’d struggle with Iran though, not that I’ve anytime for them, but think it could be a country to far.
Nice to see one of the remaining Labluvvies was treated well. Baldrick and Izzard next?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/entertainment/arts_and_culture/8434903.stm
111
Yup. In a nutshell.
Labour’s vote will evaporate like never before, a combo of stay-at-home (various reasons) and massive defections to LD and Others.
Tory Blairites, strikers, Kippers and fainthearts will vote Tory in record numbers to ensure that there is (i) a stake driven through Brown’s heart and (ii) no ‘king chance whatsoever of NOM.
A strong Tory turnout will boost the choice of Cameron/Tory by genuine Undecideds, some of whom will vote Tory as their default against Five More Years and/or in favour of Give The Other Lot a Chance and Cameron Looks OK I Guess.
Undecideds who vote Other will split the Labour vote, to the Tories’ advantage.
Labour will be down to the low 20s if they’re lucky. Massive Tory landslide - as I may have mentioned before.
The highlight of election night will be watching Michael White explaining it to us. (I may have mentioned that before, too.) Apart from “Balls Drop!”, obviously.
I am long on bunting.
An accurately titled piece by Bedpans:
http://www.newstatesman.com/uk-politics/2010/01/labour-brown-election-cameron
122 Nick P - I agree with most of what you say there, but I draw a different conclusion from it. There is a false sense of security at the moment; people are nervous, but it is very tempting for many people to think “maybe it’s not so bad after all”. Unfortunately it IS bad, but the effects have been masked for various reasons, as you describe. (You might even claim that government action has softened the bad effects…).
What I conclude from that is that any bad news headlines (and there will be plenty of those) will have a big effect on sentiment. I think we saw something very similar last year with the collapse of Woolies, even though in actually fact that was mainly caused by factors specific to Woolies rather than the wider economic situation.
81 Racism is too sensitive a subject to discuss politically.
It is far better to leave it to the people. I propose a referendum, perhaps with questions of varying degree, to avoid accusations of loading, racism, bias, eg:
1) Should any immigration be permitted
Should muslim immigrants get preference
2) Should 3rd world immigration be permitted
3) Should immigration be permitted for skilled professionals only
4) Should there be a preference of immigrant type
5) Should Curry Chefs get preference - as per Labour policy
6) Should Trade Unionists get preference - as per Labour policy
7) Should preference be given to immigrants of British descent
9) Should christian immigrants get preference
10) Should atheist immigrants get preference
11) Should rich people get preference
By delegating the question to the people, we can find out what they want - just like the referendums for Devolution and the Lisbon Treaty.
Note to self “8)” comes out as
113: Richard N - it’s difficult to respond without getting into the sort of pointless exchanges that occupy too much of pb.com, but the reason that I think denying the Conservatives an overall majority would be a good thing is that I genuinely think a Conservative government would be a disaster, and if they don’t have an overall majority it remains possible that in a subsequent election within a shortish time frame they can be defeated.
A lot of Conservative support is based on a nebulous idea that they’d be fresh and agreeable. I don’t think that would prove to be the case and people would react against the reality quite quickly.
The difficulty in discussing this sensibly is the different starting points. Mine is that Labour’s done a good job of rebuilding public services and that we can afford to steer out of recession without reversing that; I don’t think the Conservatives eould. Many here would disagree with all three of those assumptions, so there perhaps isn’t a basis for a constructive discussion.
My wife works in the public sector, on the front line as part of an intermediate care team. They are currently not allowed to fill posts when staff leave or retire. They are currently 5 staff members down, with no money available to replace them. So much for your goverment protecting front line services.
Your words Nick Palmer, are as hollow as your governments.
135 “Labour’s done a good job of rebuilding public services”
And, for what it is worth, my starting point is that Labour has built a public services that is not sustainable by our economy. It is the mistake of every Labour Govt. that has to be remedied by every incoming Tory Govt. And no-one on the Left will EVER admit this fundamental mistake in economic management.
135 Nick P - OK, that makes sense. The other side of the coin, though, is that the country might end up with a weak government which lingers on so that it is neither defeated in the shortish time frame you would hope for, nor is able to govern effectively and take the ‘tough decisions’ which everyone agrees need to be taken. In other words, the worst of all worlds no matter what your political starting point is.
Message to Phillippe Magnan.
I seem to have worked out this twitter stuff so will be available to exchange twitter betting tips when you read this.
136
The same week the Government rolled out its “we aren’t cutting” narrative”, my department was told it was having its budget cut by 10%. Before Christmas we let half the IT department go.
The idea that Labour has a reliable payroll vote is, to my mind, undermined by frontline experience of its lies and duplicity.
**ANECDOTE ALERT**
Contacts in Birmingham local government services tell me they are planning for ’swingeing cuts’* cuts in staff numbers, especially at managerial level, regardless of the GE outcome.
*The phrase has recently been taken out of cold storage as part of local government preparations for Tory government.
137 - Although that must be a new position, as 18 months ago Cameron and Osborne were planning to stick to Labours spending plans.
The difficulty in discussing this sensibly is the different starting points. Mine is that Labour’s done a good job of rebuilding public services and that we can afford to steer out of recession without reversing that; I don’t think the Conservatives eould. Many here would disagree with all three of those assumptions, so there perhaps isn’t a basis for a constructive discussion.
by Nick Palmer MP December 31st, 2009 at 11:07 am
Indeed NPMP it is difficult to have a sensible discussion when you hold such an obviously fallaceous stance. All Labour has done for the public services is to artificially inflate employment to keep the unemployment figures down (as done before), create a bloated unproductive multi-layer that contribute nothing and suck out a huge proportion of the PSBR, and create a vast number of quanos that reward their friends and collaborators and, again, contribute nothing.
labour payroll vote is not what it once was. The sense I get from my wifes colleagues is anger at the waste of the extra money.
NHS Consultants contracts for a start.
124: Yellow Submarine @ 10:47
“Health, Education and ” hard ” human misery are going to be OK. ” Soft” human misery where Labour has spent heavily is going to get clobbered.”
Please could you to clarify the terms “Hard human misery” and “Soft human misery”?
I ask because I have also had a chance to talk to some in the public sector over Christmas. I learned that my local police force is to cut 73 police posts forthwith, but has no plan to reduce any of the army of “HR professionals” that have been recruited over the past decade. Indeed it would seem that the bureaucracy is inviolate, but coppers are expendable.
142. That was before it all changed. Labour arent even keeping to their spending plans.
142 tim - Only until 2010. A very sensible policy, given the time it takes to root out waste in the public sector.
Unfortunately, because of Labour’s shameful inaction over the last year, there will now inevitably have to be hurried and therefore more damaging cuts.
It’s the full moon tonight. To all the lone crypto-werewolfs out-there: get yourself a young lovely lass and celebrate, drunk on her fresh blood, the dawn of a new year. Make her cum 3 times, and as she’s falling asleep, exhausted and yet strangely alive in a dreamy, blurry world — make a wish for the coming decade. An angel, looking for ur dulcinée, might hear u!
147 - Until 2012/13 was Camerons position until 14 months ago, so presumably he was happy with that spend as a %of GDP.
147 - “Unfortunately, because of Labour’s shameful inaction over the last year, there will now inevitably have to be hurried and therefore more damaging cuts.”
Not really, what possible effect could a new government have on spending in 2010/11 anyway? The real extra cuts will have to come for those years where it has not been identified how precisely the deficit will be reduced. That would have to come under a Labour or a Tory government. Both parties seem to have agreed not to point this out to the public.
148 - I think I may want to withdraw post 139 after that
149 - You may or may not have noticed a huge change in public finances emerging over that time period. Were you not paying attention?
140
Those transparent lies and duplicity, very familiar to Labour-leaners who are employed (for now) in the public sector and know the truth, are among the chief reasons Labour’s (paid for, hahaha) vote will evaporate to an extent that will render the Party leadership senseless with shock.
Brown and his gang will be lucky to escape with their skin intact once the Comrades regain consciousness and there is less than zero chance of any of Brown’s henchpersons being passed the Talking Stick at NEC.
Bye then, Balls Harpie & Co. It wasn’t nice knowing you.
150 I thought Cameron had said there would be an emergency budjet in the first 50 days of a new, Tory administration
“I genuinely think a Conservative government would be a disaster,
Nick Palmer”
What, as compared to your f*cking government which has killed half a million Iraqis, given us the largest deficit in the world, taken us into two illegal and pointless wars, steered us us into the deepest and longest recession in seventy years, got Fascists elected to power for the first time, and is leaving us with the greatest debt in peacetime history.
Compared to that, the Tories would be a… “disaster”? How could they possibly be worse, you drivelling halfwit? What could they do? Put every British granny on a midsummer bonfire? Shoot the nation’s gerbils with poison darts?
Happy New Year, you itching little pimple of careerism.
A very good article from Peter Kellner. I find myself not being able to disagree with any of it! Makes a change for a commentator to get all of his facts right and note in particular the exagerated polls in Labours favour before 1992, 1997 and 2001.
One area that I do disagree slightly with is the idea that Cameron will hold another election within a year, should he have to form a minorty government. I reakon 2012 looks much more attaractive electorally than late 2010/early 2011. By 2012 we should be well and truely out of the worst of the recession and more importantly people should be starting to actually feel better.
We have the Queens Diamond Jubilee holiday celebration in early summer, followed by the Olympics. I’ve read a report that said Summer 2012 will be one long holiday. With that back drop September/October 2012 would be a very nice opportunity for Cam to go after a landslide that would hopefully secure him as PM for the rest of the decade.
i heard u tim — i’ll get back to thee next year!
155.
Happy New year SeanT. Thanks for making me laugh in 2009.
152 - Clearly.
I’m just trying to get at what % of GDP the Tories on here support being spent on Public Services, Cameron seemed happy with the spend for 2012/3 before the recession hit.
it’s difficult to respond without getting into the sort of pointless exchanges that occupy too much of pb.com,
by Nick Palmer MP December 31st, 2009 at 11:07 am
Well that is a genuine NuLabour sentiment about the other (little) people.
Only NuLabour speaks sensible and to the point.
154 - Indeed, in terms of what it can actually achieve in 2010/11 itself it will be rather pointless. If he chooses to make clear what (slightly) longer term changes have to be made then that will be welcome. But he will have to make sure that the narrative is consistent with that of the election campaign. And so far the Tories are being no more open about the scale of the challenge than Labour.
155 - Two pointless and illegal wars.
Kosovo was illegal but not pointless.
Afghanistan was legal.
You need to be a little more coherent.
But Happy New Year.
http://iwcp.co.uk/news/news/no-cash-boost-for-pan-housing-30479.aspx The affordable housing commitments touted a few years going tits up. The Tory council needs to pull its finger out too. I’m not too sure though how the make-up of the 2 bodies have effected this decision, but people are being let down by the bottom of the pay league wages versus high property prices through property shortage, the basis nationally of why we have property that is SO overpriced :-/
150 Neil - What I meant was that an entire year or more of planning has been lost. As you say, it is now too late to do much about 2010/2011 (other than kill off the obvious monstrous white elephants, but even then the savings will take time to come through). But if we had had a sane government over the past year, there would have been a major, detailed effort to identify waste and misallocation of resources, ready to start implementing the required measures in around 2011-2012.
Because almost nothing has been done (indeed, Darling and Brown have actually planned to increase wasteful spending), to get any traction by 2011/2012 will now require what Nick Clegg rightly called ’savage cuts’. It is truly a disaster in the management of the public finances, and the resultant economic and political shock will be much worse than it needed to be.
161. Any party that was honest about the terrible fiscal mess bequeathed by Labour, and the harsh measures required to fix it, would probably be slaughtered at the General Election.
That is the scale of Labour’s disaster: it’s SO scary and bad the Opposition can’t use it against the government, for fear of frightening everyone to death.
And this is why Nick Palmer’s dreadful fibs upthread are so revolting. He says Labour do have good policies, like better care for the elderly.
Of course better care for the elderly would be nice, but how are we going to pay for it? Mmm? Eh? Nick, you deafmute pillock, WE HAVE RUN OUT OF MONEY. YOU HAVE SPENT ALL THE MONEY. THERE IS NO MORE MONEY.
Labour are still promising lots more lovely public spending, even as the Wall Street vultures are circling our credit rating.
Labour R Wankers.
151 — u r obviously not sex-hungry werewolf; the full moon AND the promises of a new decade AND millions of young and horny women planning to get absolutely drunk tonight — might leave u cold as stone!
Surely this is one thing that should be cut (only because it’ll stop the West Indies being good at cricket, and thrashing us)
Taxpayers fund cricket lessons for foreign criminals
The British taxpayer is funding millions of pounds to improve life for criminals in Jamaica, including lessons in how to play cricket
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/lawandorder/6911499/Taxpayers-fund-cricket-lessons-for-foreign-criminals.html
159. 35%
164 - I doubt the Tories would have cut speniding in a recession.
Although looking at Daves knee jer nonsense, perhaps they would.
VAT cut has failed, says Cameron
Thats from Jan 2nd 2009.
Oh dear.
145. The ” problem ” with Police Officers is because of the basic 30 year career spane and the sausage machine nature of recruitment and training they are relatively easy to get rid of. You just cut the number of training places. Institutionally its easier to not hire new people rather than sack the existing staff.
It will be interesting to see when this issue surfaces above the radar as more or less everyone will feel that uniformed officers are “Front Line”. Also a huge number of the PCSO’s around the place are part funded by partnerships, councils and “funny money” streams. Every one derides PCSO’s but you’ll notice the lack of visibility in urban areas if agencies start pulling match funding.
Given the recent BNP outbreak its an area the political class will mess up at its peril.
164 - “But if we had had a sane government over the past year, there would have been a major, detailed effort to identify waste and misallocation of resources, ready to start implementing the required measures in around 2011-2012.”
I disagree.
Not having dramatic cuts in 2010/11 is a perfectly reasonable position if you believe (as Labour does) that it is needed to shore up the economic recovery. (They may be right, they may be wrong, nobody knows for sure but I tend to agree with them. Of course you might argue that it is convenient that this position takes them up to an election.)
Clearly huge cuts are needed in the period after that. This is shown in the budget documents. All Labour and the Tories are doing is not pointing out where these will fall. Both are equally guilty of that.
Was quite amazed that someone was laying a Tory majority at 1.49 on Betfair in the last 24 hours. There are definitely Labour optimists out there!
162
Kosovo: illegal
Afghanistan: pointless
Iraq: illegal AND pointless
I think that covers all Labour’s wars.
so my comment was not aimed at u! And I know u don’t believe in Angels anymore!
173 - Did you actually oppose any of them at the time?
169. thatcher cut spending in the early eighties, it was shown to be the correct thing to do.
159. 40% GDP - no borrowing.
If the productive economy is 60% of the economy, that means that 40% is used up by the state in providing services. The country’s growth rate from a 60% private sector will mean that there is more for all.
The current 2009 spend is 58% GDP by the state sector (not reported anywhere - except hidden in Treasury statistics), leaving only 42% for the private sector. The size of the state has never been so high throughout history. The Treasury gives GBP 728 billion as the combined total of spending. GDP is GBP 1.26 trillion.
BDO accountants give 2009 Revenue at GBP 496 billion down from GBP 606 billion in 2008. The gap between spending and revenues is 18% of GDP, double the level of the USA in 2009, yet Brown is claiming we are at a broadly similar level.
The 12% GDP quoted by Darling in the PBR was a forecast figure which did not take into account the fall in revenues since the forecast was made. The forecast revenues for 2009 were GBP 550 billion, but by December these were more than GBP 50 billion short. Yet Darling still claimed in The Commons that the 2009 PSBR was 12%. Bizarre - or not really, just New Labour up to their old tricks - yet the lies are getting massively bigger now.
You can always tell when a socialist has lost the argument and the fight because you get repeated postings of what Thatcher did 30 years ago. Incidentally she didn’t destroy the country like this lot have only a movement that tried to destroy us by blackmail (a lot of Labour MP’s agreed with that).
One poster went one better this morning and resurrected the ‘golliwog’ incident which was utterly laughable for a political argument. The reference to a golliwog was never intended to be racist she like me just comes from an era where we all had golliwogs as toys and anyone with hair like that is described as a golliwog. Its the hairstyle not the colour!!!!!! All she did do wrong was say it in front of one of the most foul mouthed people on the box and another who was having an affair as shown later. It was only Labour and their supporters that made it racist and caused her to lose her job. Off course Woss did not lose his for his antics which to the majority of us was far more offensive but of course they are Labour supporters which is why Labour is now so despised by many.
The fact is Labour, Nu Labour or new improved whiter than white (am I allowed to say that anymore???) Labour have been rumbled and as such they should prepare for oblivion and no amount of raising issues that happened years ago, smearing opposition wives, or painting people as racist when they are plainly not will make any difference whatsoever now.
Sorry just had to be said
i will so put at least half of my-net worth on a Tory Majority!
Morning all,
A well crafted piece by Kellner which in its way is still rose tinted in that it still infers, for those who want to read it that way, that a hung parliament is a distinct possibility.
Given the state of the polls, the regional splits, Labour’s under-performance at elections year-on-year, the inability or lack of Labour policy/ strategy to seriously shift the polls, their tendency to lose vote share during the early months of the year and the fact that for some strange reasons many of the bad stories for Labour seem to appear exactly when needed to unhinge them (didn’t the Haine, Harman and Alexander scandals kick off at the end of the Brown bounce, didn’t the Jacqui Smith scandal help kill off any lingering hope of Brown Bounce II last January/February?), I still think a hung parliament is an outside shot.
Furthermore, given the dreadful state of the economy, the public debt and essential cuts in public services with its inherent job losses and knock effect on the economy, the obese and inflexible nature of national and supra-nation institutions and last but not least the expenses scandal, there is little or no hope that any of the parties can promise any more than a glimmer of hope at the end of a very dark and long tunnel without coming in for ridicule.
Consequently, there will be few ‘positive’ motivations for voters come election day. Which leaves only one motivation standing tall above all - To get rid of Brown and Labour and whatever the election campaign produces that motivation will dominate.
I see that the debate, argument, whatever is continuing unabated:
HAPPY NEW YEAR TO ALL PB’ERS WHEREVER THEY ARE ♡
171 Neil - But the point is they are not actually doing any detailed planning. Are there auditors going round every central and local government department identifying the makeweight staff positions and tasks which don’t require doing?
The waste is everywhere, a ‘culture of excess’ throughout the public sector, as Brown correctly pointed out. It could be rooted out by painstaking attention to detail, but that takes a lot of planning. No such planning has been done. So, instead, crude cuts will be the only option. That is the charge against Labour.
JL.79. “One thing I don’t understand - Bercow is supposed to be independent…..How can Cameron say that any local Tories campaigning against him should be disciplined?” I think what Cameron is doing is to uphold the Tory party’s constitution which makes clear party members must not openly support other political parties.
Kosovo mightn’t have been authorized by a UN resolution but it was in my view morally justified.
Afghanistan was legal and justified but thanks to Cheney and Rumsfeld only seeing it as a warm up for Iraq we are now in a position where we are looking for the least worst option.
Iraq had dubious legality but it was unjustified and the wrong war. The emphasis should have been on stabilizing Afghanistan.
182. Oh the irony. Local councils are audited by the ‘audit commission’, but that rarely if ever results in efficiencies, in fact the opposite is almost always true, as councils spend fortunes on complying with their targets and prejudices. They are part of the ‘decade of decadence’, not the solution.
Tapestry, I have been reading your recent comments with a kind of masochistic curiosity. I rather hope you are wrong, even though I despise this government.
If you are right and Labour are lying - overtly or subconsciously - on the mind-numbing scale you suggest, then we are TRULY screwed: permanently and seriously damaged as a nation.
182 - Cuts are being planned and made, just look at individual department budgets. The idea that, after Gershon and everyone else, there are painless or effective cuts to be made is mostly nonsense. Sure it is what every government and opposition claims is the case but they soon find out it isnt. Clearly I’m not going to change your mind, you’re a Tory, you have to believe that your lot will do a better job than Labour or why would you be bothering. I’m neither and I have seen no evidence (and neither you nor your party have provided any) that they will be an improvement.
9/11 and islamofascism ; the financial crisis revealing profund systemic errors; the widespread obesity and ugliness — all are SIGNS pointing toward the decline of the West. The future — money, peace and beautiful girls — are now to be found and enjoyed in the East.
182. The rumour in my agency is that 200 job cuts, roughly 25% of the total staff will be gone by April.
This is in NI by the way.
OT
Oooh! YouGov’s got fancy graphic buttons on its new survey!
Morning all
New Year greetings to everyone and a last awards ceremony (apart from the ones still to come in the next 12 hours or so):
http://aloadofoldstodge.blogspot.com/2009/12/its-awards-time-again.html
On the subject of cuts in local Government, a number of Authorities of all political stripes have been contingency planning on the basis of 20% real reductions over the next four years. This will impact most those councils which have enjoyed generous grant allocations under the gerrymandered Prescott spending formulae. In fact, thousands of local Government jobs have already been lost though much of this has been through natural wastage.
It remains to be seen whether and to what degree the consultancy sector will fell the pinch. I’ve seen of late that a number of senior posts (where filled) have been taken by ex-consultants who perhaps see their consultancies (who have grown fat on public sector work) finding times much tougher in the coming years.
Typical lefties, just imagine their reaction when Thatcher dies.
http://iaindale.blogspot.com/2009/12/sheer-nastiness-of-sunny-hundal.html#links
Nick Palmer MP
“I genuinely think a Conservative government would be a disaster”
I and many mnay others I am sure would really be interested to know how you would describe our present situation then?
Serious question.
189 - That’s a silly rumour then as there is no way the proper process to get rid of that number of staff can possibly be gone through between now and then.
181 - all the best to you too, old jolly right-wing cock!
191 - I see Usain Bolt narrowly pips Mike Smithson for man of the year.
Did you drug test them?
187 Neil - That argument would be stronger if Labour were at least planning to cut the obvious white elephants (ID cards, NHS database, the Children’s Database, RDAs, etc etc). But they are not even going for those painless (indeed desirable) cuts, let alone anything more controversial.
As for Gershon - they were never serious. Labour’s mindset is that by definition public spending is a Good Thing.
Oh indeed before I start celebrating (and as a result forget to say it) the end of what has been probably the lousiest end of a decade I can recall.
Happy New Year and Happy New Decade to you all my fellow PB’ers!
May it be a Labour free decade!
187. You are right that it is a fib that cutting spending will be painless. It wont be. The amount of cash that has sloshed around the system over the last decade is immense, nothing like it ever before. If you needed a minibus for your community group, you pretty much got it, if the local area needed some kind of regeneration grant, it would get it, if the local trust needed a few hundred million to balance its books, it got it. The idea of ‘make do’ was abandoned some time ago.
Whatever the problem, there was a route to get the cash, either directly through government, or through various spending quangos, and publicly funded charities and commissions.
This, is going to disappear down the chute. All those RDAs that have flooded areas with funding are going to be wound up, those bogus advocacy charities again, are going to disappear.
The decade of decadence is going to be followed by the age of austerity, and the latter is going to last longer then the former.
183: Sorry SLAM but Bercow must go, He is indistinguishable from Labour and his wife, to use the common parlance is a cheap tart.
Cameron should turn a blind eye in this constituency, or failing that disown Bercow and get the local Con. Assn., to put up a rival to him in true Tory colours.
Personally, I would I would love to see Farage elected, if only to help ‘gee up” the Tories once they are in power.
197 - “As for Gershon - they were never serious.”
A grand and sweeping statement. What analysis do you base it on? Oh, the one that says my lot are good and the other lot are not. As I said, that kind of thinking has to sustain the activists of both parties as they prepare to fight an election but it doesnt really convince the rest of us (being based on absolutely no evidence whatsoever).
194. Maybe so but the fact is there will be deep cuts, and given the number of admin staff in office who spend most of the day on Facebook as they’ve no real work to do there is plenty of scope for it!
Richard N I must disagree with you on just one point.
Having been involved, in very minor capacities, in three government cuts programmes there is a lot that can be done in year.
It is true, as you say, that the longer term programme for government expenditure is where the real change will occur but like the bleeding wounds on an accident victim, the spending needs staunching in almost any way possible as first aid until the patient can get to the operating theatre.
This is why Osborne was complaining that the contractual details of many government projects were not available. He wants to know what can be deferred or scaled back or canceled without incurring new liabilities such as this incompetent government have with the aircraft carriers.
Secondly, departments will simply be told to spend less as a percentage of their running costs and do it in-year. Screams and shouts will echo about but every mandarin knows that he can cut up to 10% in year if really necessary. The trick is to ensure that they do not kill the goose when extracting the savings egg.
Thirdly there will be a total formal freeze on non-military recruitment and possibly promotions. With normal turnover that will save significantly in many departments.
Those departments will also start shutting off the lights, cutting out the parties, reduce the IT spend on unnecessary upgrades and pretty toys, reduce the PR, publicity and advertising and not least of all, overseas travel ( 4 million for the police alone last year - for Whitehall god knows how much), reducing car pools, slowing replacement and refurbishment (how many billion in the MoD recently?) , reducing vast and ineffective training programmes which are really freebie weeks in nice locations, and generally do what this government has discouraged, finding ways to do the job without ever increasing levels of spending.
For savings start at both ends. The huge white elephants and the number of paper clips per person per year.
You would be amazed at how much can be saved if people really have to try.
It all depends on the toughness at the top. Cameron’s temper will come in handy there as will the Osborne glowering intransigence and the Hammond come-off-it-chum-I-have-been-there knowledge.
CAMERON Overall Majority 72%
CAMERON Most Seats only (Nomaj) 14%
LAB Most Seats only (Nomaj) 10%
ANY OTHER (LAB MAJ or CAMERON not contesting) 4%
Thems my figures and am prepared to bet to them given a slight edge.
186. Sean, is it that bad? I am sorry!
As they say, it’s only money.
Read BDO accountants Press where government revenues are given, explaining they are more than GBP 50 billion below forecast at GBP 496 billion, and yet the same forecast is announced in the PBR, as months previously, as if the GBP 550 billion revenue was all just fine and super duper. As I say, it’s bizarre. No one wants to tackle them accusing them of such vast lies, as most people cannot take it in.
As you say, it’s kinda a masochistic subject anyway, all those horrible big numbers. But just take the figures without the noughts on. It’s easier on the brain. 606 was 2008. 550 was forecast revenue for 2009. It was 496 by November 2009. Yet Darling announces as if 550 came in. They spent 728.
Is that better?
198 I’m trying to resist, I really am, but it’s not the end of the decade, just the end of the noughties. We still have a year to go. There was no year zero - well apart from in Cambodia and, perhaps, Brown’s recession-hit Britain
190 ot
And it all fell over at page five. Heh.
114 - Smithsonite, Smithsonian or Smithsonson?
124 - YS - very recognisable where I work; I often have to point out that keeping a job in the current climate, even if its not one you particularly wanted, is preferable to being made redundant.
one last time, coze it’s important: IT’S ALSO THE FULL MOON TONIGHT! If u r a lonely celibate, get out and Hunt for a woman. To all the single guys here: leave ur brain in ur room, get alife, shut the f*ck up, and hit many girlr until one falls for you. To the beginning of many love affair, i rise my glass!
143. The problem with Nick Palmer’s claim re. public services is that Darling’s own figures show the whole of the increase in public spending undertaken since 2001 being reversed.
Which implies either a) he is fantasising or b) the runup in spending was incredibly wasteful, with the same level of service possible with a much lower spend.
So unless Nick disagrees with his own Chancellor, he appears to be indulging in nothing more than empty spin (to put it charitably).
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2009/dec/10/pre-budget-report-institute-fiscal-studies
re 191. And Stodge - your list top of my “Top of the Year” lists
Two points.
184: Very good post. I’d have said excellent but surely the Iraq war was illegal, not “of dubious legality”?
Is Philippe Magnan real?
Looking ahead to 2010 I can’t help but wonder if we will get more after shocks from Expensesgate. My entry for the Rogerdamius award for 2010 is that we’ll get office costs next. Firstly i think the MSM particulalry the dead tree press has enjoyed nuking the political class andt here will be a strong desire to throw a few fireworks off just before the election. Secondly the focus todate has been on ACA. I know several MP’s office which are all perfectly legal in there arrangements that would horrify/be made to look horrifying to Joe Public because they are stuffed full of publically paid researchers who are in effect party activists. Add to that the number of shared offices with local parties and renting from local parties and there is something to go on.
When the bills come in in late january/early february we’ll all feel better with some one to hate and the press will summon a few more MP’s from the ether.
208 - I went for Smithsonite in a reference to Hilary Benns original quote.
Also its sounds like one of them will be carrying some Farage luggage/baggage come election day.
206. So the start of your decade and the millenium was 2001 then?
Funny I don’t remember the celebrations for the end of the century being at the end of 2000? So I’ll go with the majority on this then thanks.
213: Have you seen the Guardian’s politics forecast?
Not a new decade, mmmm? f*ck the nerds, with all due respect! It’s 2010 — notice there will be a NEW 1 on the 2nd column?
& 211. I agree with your view that the blogger of the Year title should go to the Nick Starling “The Norfolk Blogger” - if only because he irritates Iain Dale so much.
They have had quite a feud going back to Iain’s bid for Norfolk North at the 2005 election.
214,215 Quite happy to be a nerd on this one. Sure there’s no reason to rehearse the argument - Happy New Year whether you believe it’s the end of the decade or not
209. Philippe, why do I get the tiny tiny feeling you have had a couple of Singha beers already? And perhaps paid a barfine or two?
I will be in the Land of Smiles myself ere long. Tonight I will kiss goodbye to the ugly backside of the Noughties in a British Airways jumbo, somewhere over Turkey or the Ukraine, I am guessing.
Bonne Annee, mon ami.
Labour haven’t been listening for 12 years. Why would they start now?
212 - YS, indeed having looked at the bills for my own MP I was surprised to see how much public money was going into the coffers of the local CP for “room rent” and the like.
213 - now, how come its luggidge, baggidge, but Farrarj, Garrarj?
187 Neil, I’m not certain that the Tories will do a better job than Labour in reducing the pain we are going to have to go through but I think/hope they have a better chance of doing so. In my view they will not do worse. Reasons:
1) They aren’t in Cloudcuckooland. Might be pre-election dividing line stuff but Brown continues to make big spending commitments and pretends that after a decade of low growth he has the magic potion to deliver a decade of high growth. As NickP’s post above shows there isn’t a recognition that its changed irrevocably, Labour still think the economy we had pre 2008 can return and be sustainable, that it really wasn’t anything they did wrong but external forces.
2) A Labour Party increasingly dependent on Trade Union funding, from a TUC now concentrated in public service unions will be unable to take the steps necessary to reform services to achieve higher productivity required to maintain services with restrained spending.
There are Labour ministers & ex ministers (probably more ex - Purnell, Clarke, Milburn) who recognise that service delivery has to change but they are either leaving or exiled.
3) It will be either cut voluntarily with reform or have the IMF, EU and markets enforce cuts (the Greek option). Seems to me the present Government cannot face the task voluntarily so it will be the latter, immediate, hard and service destroying cuts imposed as x% off across the board.
221. To cut spending requires zeal, real 100% zeal. Containing budgets is hard enough, but actually cutting them? If your heart isnt really in it, you wont achieve it.
Farage vs Bercow will be a classic 2 Party Conservative vs Labour contest.
All true conservatives will vote conservatives. UKIP type can also join in.
Containing budgets is hard enough, but actually cutting them? If your heart isnt really in it, you wont achieve it.
by notme December 31st, 2009 at 12:17 pm
Exactly. That is why the papers recently released showing Thatcher’s struggle are very well timed as well as instructive.
That first effort was very difficult. By the time John Major had to do the same it was choice not action that was difficult.
“221. 3) It will be either cut voluntarily with reform or have the IMF, EU and markets enforce cuts (the Greek option)”
This is the irony of the General Election. Despite the chaff thrown up by both parties, because of Labour’s disastrous incompetence, both parties will, inevitably, have to follow very similar economic policies: large tax rises and severe spending cuts.
These policies will be imposed by the market, and the implicit threat of a gilt strike, sovereign default, the IMF landing its black helicopters on Buck House etc.
The only real difference is that the Tories will PROBABLY be more ruthlessly and swiftly efficient - and, as you say - better able to face down the public sector unions when they bitchsqueal.
A further point - everyone is saying the Tories will be troubled by major strikes and voter discontent as they inject this painful medicine. I’m not sure that’s true. I think Cam & Oz will have a sort of anti-honeymoon period when the public will expect them to do their worst, and will reluctantly tolerate it.
This window may only be open for two years or so. Tories need to seize the opportunity.
221
1) Actually, there is recognition that it has changed irrevocably. That very point is made in the budget (and pbr) documents. It’s not something that Labour has been advertising but it is something that their more clued up MPs (and the government, obviously) realise. The fiscal projections most certainly do *not* assume that the pre 2008 position can return as you claim. In any case - the Tories have not offered any more clarity on longer term cuts than Labour. So your belief that they will be better can only be faith.
2) That point is irrelevant to the fiscal position of the country. It is just petty politicing. I know you have to do it but it really does nothing, whatsoever, to show that the Tories will handle things better.
3) Again, the Tories have shown absolutely no more clarity on the required long-term cuts than Labour. So we are back to faith again.
I have no problem with you folks believing that you will do a better job than Labour. You have to believe it, why canvass / leaflet / work your socks off if you dont believe it.
But you have no evidence (or have not provided any) so dont expect your opponents or neutrals to accept it so blindly.
220, it is garridge in some places. The sound at the end of garrarj is new to English, arriving within the last century. It fills a gap in the pattern of our consonants but, being new, doesn’t have a wide spread.
221. Ted, the situation in 1974 when the IMF showed up and told the government to cut back on spending won’t happen again, I very much doubt.
It is now the aim of the international banks to persuade governments to incur massive debts so that they become beholden to them. The New World Order which Gordon Brown is so keen on, or the One World Government declared by Herman van Rompuy, is nothing other than the international central banks working together to sprout the limbs of government, and declare how powerful they have become.
The EU is a mere Parish Council in this new power structure.
To get control of individual countries they first require them to abase themselves financially, by taking on debts that cannot possibly be repaid. In the 1960s and 1970s this was a familiar tactic to suppress communism in third world countries.
Where we are now is that the international banking system has grown so big and powerful that they are able to use the same tactic on developed economies, and lend to people like Gordon Brown as much as they like, while, between them, they send us all to political oblivion.
Brown will pick up a nice job in the NWO/OWG hierarchy, and he can lie about the small matter of GBP 50 billion to Parliament, or maybe a lot more than that, knowing full well the bankers are more than happy for Britain to be reduced to a basketcase.
206 - Astronomers do include a year zero for calculations, so I am going to stick with that and say that indeed next year is the beginning of a new decade!
227 - interesting; so “garrarj” is an arriviste word? Or is it garragiste?
226. The evidence that the Tories will do better than Labour is, not least, historical.
Thatcher inherited a terrible Labour mess in 1979, and in time the Tory prime minister fixed it.
Cameron will inherit a terrible Labour mess in 2010 (if he wins); God willing, in time, a Tory prime minister will fix it.
Besides, who the F would vote for five more years of Labour in the belief that suddenly they understand the problem after ten years of cocking everything up? That’s like going back to the same doctor who has been “accidentally” poisoning you for a decade, cause he says he can now read the labels on the medicine a bit better.
226. Neil December 31st, 2009 at 12:24 pm
oh come on!
Labour not just publish rubbish but delibrately mislead.
The Tories have managed to turn the country around from bad/dire/dreadful to something better before and no doubt they will do it again.
Labour are engaged in a cynical ploy in trying to trick the electorate with post election tax rises deferred until after the day of judgement. You may have a cynical view of Labour and rightly so but dont transfer that onto other parties. They the Tories have not let millions of immigrants into the country, choked the economy threough stupid state spending and generally depressed this countries prospects as Labour have. Gordon Brown continues to make promisises of internation aid increases almost on a weekly basis.
no drinks yet, sean! Yet the atmosphere here in Chiang Mai is incredibly festive — with so many people coming back from Bangkok to party with old friends and family. I’ll be in Bangkok in 2 weeks ; ring me @ 0879937520; or I’ll drop u a line via twitter. May beautiful muses give u inspiring company through all 2010!
203
Witan
I spent 20 years of my life being parachuted into failing orgnaisations and making cost cuts and service improvements.
In badly run ones - and I mean really badly run with no idea of cost controls, 30% savings on staff and 50%+ savings on expenditure were possible.
When you read about the MOD’s track record of abject failure over decades, I am sure it will take a real struggle to change the culture. I expect the scope for savings is 50% staff and 75% of costs overrruns and HUGE - and I mean £100 billions - of program cuts.
Then I read about education and Heads of schools being swamped by thousands of instructions a year.
A devolved system would probably cut 75% of the Whitehall education budget.
Is it possible? Yes
Is it doable? I persoanlly doubt it. the management changes are immense..
I suspect most of the MOD high command will have to go…
There are some nasty people in the blogosphere.
Sunny Hundal is one:
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/leftwatch/2009/12/sunny-hundal-celebrates-rush-limbaughs-hospitalisation.html
235. The authentic voice of New Labour.
206. There’s no such thing as ‘the’ decade: a decade is just a period of ten years and can start and end at entirely arbitrary points.
It’s easier to give examples with centuries. The 20th century ran from 1901-2000 because the 1st century started (retrospectively in teh Christian calendar) in AD1. However, the 1900s ran from 1900-1999. Both are equally valid definitions of centuries, in their own terms.
I’m confident Brown has plans to, and can deliver 5% GDP growth each year, it’s just that it will be accompanied by 7% inflation. Over a five year span, that’s close to 50% price Inflation, when compunded, and ‘pouffe!’ that’s 50% of the national debt quietly eroded away!
Simples!
#122 While mortgage rates typically remain low for consumers, unsecured rates, particularly credit card rates remain high, and as a consequence:
…Consumer credit continued to contract, particularly for unsecured lines of credit. The write-off rate for uncollectable consumer loans rose further in the third quarter of 2009 to hit the highest level since the series began in 1993…
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/2198ab48-ebf9-11de-8070-00144feab49a.html
**** Robert Smithson Betting Post ****
Robert. In case you missed my post at 110. What odds will you lay me that John Bercow will NOT be Speaker of the House of Commons on 1/1/2011?
225. I rarely disagree with you but that takes me to my next not very mystic prediction for 2010. Underneath it all the liberal left quite enjoys opposition. It allows it to feel morally superior to others and it provides time and space to enjoy a favourite pass time. Splitting and fratricide. After 6 months of cold turkey from power and salaries the liberal left will just *lurve* whats comming.
This is going to be the Conservative government that Harrods would sell them. A tory government with loads of posh blokes who are just going to have to make massive cuts.
It’ll be a Doctor Who episode with the Daleks, a Star Trek episode with the Borg or the Klingons , a sporting derby between insert ancient rivalry.
I think if you throw in the fact that “Its all the bankers fault” then you have real scope for massive public sector unrest.
231 - Stop living in the past. And it wasnt just Labour who walked into this problem. As Tim points out Tory policy used to be to keep to their spending plans.
Of course people want to get rid of Labour. I want to get rid of Labour. This is not the same thing as being confident that the Tories will do a better job on the fiscal side. As you point out yourself, any government will find itself having to make the same tightening over the medium to longer term. The only choice they have left is how much to make from tax rises and how much from spending cuts (and where should those spending cuts fall).
Phillipe Magnan- Good to see you in such high spirits.
In 2010, bet half your net worth on a CON Overall Majority.
Bet half of your net curtains on NOM. Given your enthusiasm for an active sex-life, you might have need of a few net curtains.
104. Nick Palmer
I don’t think that any of the parties is being very successful in getting a positive message across - there’s a danger that the election will be “We’re a change from horrid Labour” vs “We’re not the horrid Tories”, which won’t be a very edifying spectacle, though maybe an accurate reflection of what passes for political coverage by the British media
I think that is exactly the way it will play out as I said above except all the parties will be saying ‘We’re not the horrid Conservatives’ to some extent and Cameron will be the best at saying it. Whereas they will also be saying ‘We’re not that horrid Governmment’ and thanks to Brown, Balls, Harman, Draper, McBride and co that one will stick.
Let’s face it your Government has screwed this country royally. There is no quick fix. It is now a nation with a broken economy, a broken society and a broken democracy and it will take a decade or more to recover if it ever really does. That is Labour’s legacy to the British people and I’m confident the British people will give Labour full credit for that!
It is clear, there’s nothing realistically that any major party is capable or willing to offer that will spark any optimism in the electorate. It is going to be one dreary, uninspiring election and that’s the way it is. However, there is a good chance that the results will be no small comfort to us on the right.
242, were Labour responsible for Black Wednesday? They supported entry into the ERM, after all.
I also disagree with the majority view that Labour would do, or see the necessity of doing, what the Tories would. Brown back in power, backed by Chancellor Balls, would just wreck the economy even more.
136 My wife works in the public sector, on the front line as part of an intermediate care team. They are currently not allowed to fill posts when staff leave or retire. They are currently 5 staff members down, with no money available to replace them. So much for your goverment protecting front line services. Your words Nick Palmer, are as hollow as your governments.by peter sadler December 31st, 2009 at 11:12 am
AGREED AND WELL SAID PETER! and again Nick palmer MP another example for you
My wife works in the local Primary school as front line clerical support there are only 3 of them doing work that double that should be doing. They continue because they know the publics purse is not bottomless. However the school has now been told they now have to share a headteacher with another school miles away apparently in the interests of spreading skills. We actually know that this is a lie as there is no money left from your allocations to pay a head teacher let alone pay the teachers themselves which is why cheaper teaching assistants are not supporting the process as you always state but purely plugging the gaps. Meanwhile the parents cough up to pay for books and other essentials that you should be providing as standard. This takes money away from building repairs and maintenance and we have youngsters in huts in the playground.
EDUCATION! EDUCATION! EDUCATION! don’t make me laugh.
As Peter said so much for your front line services and how hollow those words now sound.
242. Neil - but one party is overwhelmingly dependent on public sector employees and dependents for votes, and on public sector unions for cash, while the other isn’t.
So it’s pretty clear who will find it easiest to swing the necessary axe in the public sector.
234. What you are really saying Madasafish is that in Britain at least, Evolution has run it’s course and that only Revolution will suffice.
This seems more than probable after twelve years of a Labour government that has succeeded in destroying British society by years of constant experimenting and tinkering with our social fabric.
It will be more than the tories can manage to fix all this in two terms, let alone one.
237 By extension if 1901 to end of 2000 is the 20th Century then 2001 to end of 2010 is the end of the 201st Decade. 1900 to 1999 are the 1900s and 2000-2009 are the Noughties. A decade may be arbitrary bit so too then is a century. But, as I said, Happy New Year howver you count it (unless of course your waiting for February 14th and the Chinese New Year
)
252 Doh your = you’re
249 - It’s clear to you. Not to me. Just to repeat seant’s point: either party would be required to implement the same degree of fiscal tightening.
242. Neil December 31st, 2009 at 12:35 pm
The point is you are trying to use almost a scientific methodology of deduction and therefore you cannot prove the future one way or the other without using the past. You seem to be saying that the Tories past experience in government does not count and neither does Labour.
Intellectually that is a ridiculous view poiint and shows how spiteful and grudging you are with the potential for change.
Majors government cut spending as well when they had too, indeed Labour took Ken Clarkes spending plans for 1997 -99 and implemented them! That was an easy time to implememnet them in 97-99 - I do not believe for one minute Labour could achieve anything in spending cuts with the present Labour team or a potential alternative.
251
tapestry
I agree with YS above. We are going to see public sector strikes.
And when the Tories start cutting welfare spending (and there is no IF - they will have to in order to reduce the deficit) ,I expect riots in certain areas:
As they will be largely deprived areas with Labour MPs, the impact on the largely working middle class voters who support the Conservatives will be minimal (see the Miners’ Strike).
The effect willbe rather like evolution - but in reverse.
247 - “and a broken democracy”
JSFL - I agree with the comment, but Conservative plans to fix this are … ?
255 - “I do not believe”
Yes, we know. You guys believe you will do it better. Obviously. You just lack the plans to show us how. That’s ok, the election wont turn on this anyway.
Richard N at 138: yes, I agree that’s the risk of hung parliaments, and I don’t think the parties have done the preparatory work to make a strong coalition a feasible option. But all the possibilities have risks. A government with a small majority is hostage to its more extreme members. A government with a large majority is tempted to become more extreme itself.
The other replies are pretty much what I predicted, and it’d be a waste of time for everyone involved for us to pursue them here. But as Batch file at 193 is (I think) new here, and it’s posed as a serious question: I’d describe the current situation as surprisingly encouraging in the context of the world economy and Britain’s traditional emphasis on financial markets and owner-occupation, the two areas that were most at risk. You might not agree, but welcome to the site anyway. Curious about the name - it makes me think of computing of a bygone age (’Here’s this batch job to be run at 4am…’), but maybe it has a different significance for you?
And as Weathercock says, happy new year, everyone!
155. What could be worse than Labour? I give you … Labour again.
Since 1997, we’ve had
Labour: A New Hope (1997-2001). Dashed hopes of a New Jerusalem and dodgy donations and fuel protests but not a bad start.
Labour II: The Empire Strikes Iraq (2001-5). The worst foreign policy blunder in at least 50 years.
Labour III: The Tantrum Menace (2005-10). Delivering the longest and deepest recession in 70 years, in and amongst the Expenses Crisis, ever greater erosion of civil liberties, BNP MEPs etc.
Labour IV: ?
Reading Yellow Submarine’s post @241, and thinking about the incentives the various leaders would have, I’m starting to think Brown (in the unlikely event that he was re-elected) would be more likely to make deep public spending cuts than Cameron.
Yellow Submarine has covered the disincentives for Cameron to wield the hatchet. In contrast, Brown would have a better chance of getting the grudging acquiescence of the unions to do what he thought he had to do, and like Blair with the Iraq War, he’d have an opposition that was committed to the same policy that he was pursuing (although obviously they’d criticize it when he did it) and had spent years saying was necessary.
Plus, if the Tory consensus here is right that the markets trust the Tories and distrust Labour, Brown will have to take more drastic steps to stop them freaking out and running on the pound or upping the interest rates they demand on debt.
243. Re Buckingham. Cameron is worried by this situation. The Times reports that Conservatives in Buckingham are thinking of backing Farage. Cameron has threatened members will be thrown out if they do.
Tim Montgomerie on CH says he has information that this is not the case, and that The Times is incorrect. Conservatives who back Farage will not face reprisals.
If my name was Robert Smithson, I would be careful backing Bercow against Farage with too much cash. There is a lot of Tory anger against Bercow, which could use a vote for Farage as a way to release.
Cameron would be under more pressure to press on in the Commons with Sovereignty and a Bill of Rights, if Farage makes it. That would please the average Conservative greatly.
I know these Smithsons are good at political bets, way ahead of me, but still this story has the potential to surprise. Don’t forget that there is also the factor of Sally who has been openly critical of Cameron. I might yet be tempted to put a few quid on. I’m back in Blighty next week. I’ll check my bank balance then, after checking with a few ears to the ground in that part of the world.
135 “Labour’s done a good job of rebuilding public services”
Nick the only thing that came into my head on reading that was
the term “raising to the ground”. Please stop rebuilding these public services we just cannot withstand the domolition that is you inflict first without any tangible results.
228 Neil,
1 - but their actions don’t match their own budget/PBR. The rhetoric is of a decade of prosperity coming, of NHS and Education spending protected, guarantees of service delivery but nothing on the how they will meet fiscal targets. Osborne outlined a public sector pay freeze, reforms to pensions, public & state, stopping major IT projects - not enough I grant you but real and significant. Cable claims to have gone further but not sure that his proposals have been signed off by the Lib Dem policy forum (his proposal to forget University tuition fee removal has become a 6 year plan to get rid of tuition fees - no matching funding proposal other than fewer places).
2) isn’t politicking. Tony Blair got some significant reforms through as he built an alternative funding model, less dependent on Trades Union funding. That funding might have had some questionable attributes (peerages, acts of Paliament) but it meant that he had a much freer rein than Gordon has had and a putative fouth term Labour Government will have.
- I do wonder if Ashcroft’s silence on his status has been a deliberate ploy to get L:abour to bring in reforms that mean the wallets of Lords Paul & Cohen and the Mittals are no longer available to Labour, poor Lord Sainsbury seems to be the only wealthy donor who will still be there.
3) see my 1 - no ID cards, cancellation of IT projects, later retirement, pay freeze, public sector pensions among others.
259. Labour IV will involve an attempt to reboot the franchise by going back to a time before Labour: A New Hope. But with over the top special effects and a cringeworthy script. Featuring Ed Balls as Jar Jar Binks.
261, although I’m ambivalent about the result, I think Buckingham could be the single most interesting constituency on the night.
2010: let’s get rid of Gordon’s Balls!
257. Neil December 31st, 2009 at 12:46 pm
The problem comes from Labours failure to address the problem, Labour are the government not the Tories. Labour created the problem and are duplictous calling on a weekly basis about Investment vs. Cuts. Gordon Brown was on about not choking off the recovery.
He has obviously been playing with the fairies or farmy farm again! 
Firstly there has been no recovery - the economy was still contracting on the last published GDP figures for Q3. Secondly Public Spending is not economic growth. There comes a time as in Britain now where cutting the state back is the only way to get sustainable growth. Nobody is asking for public sector 5 to 10% reductions in pay as in the private sector. This is despite jobs been more secure in the public sector and better pension arrangements.
I still favour one new Tax - An Immigrant Tax on all Immigrants from 1997 onwards at £10,000 per head. That should raise some money! :smile;
259 - David H - that was great
Time to kick off the title of Cameron’s government? I’m going to borrow from Dave’s namesake James:
2010 - 2015: (Contract) Terminator - in honour of Osbo’s cuts
259. David
I thought ‘IV’ was pretty obvious
‘Attack Of The Victoria Street Clones’
“That The Times is incorrect”
Bercow’s majority is one of the largest in the country, isn’t it? That would certainly indicate a mass defection of the Conservative vote is highly unlikely.
267 - Armagideon Time
257 Neil - It is absurd to claim that Labour and the Conservatives are equivalent in terms of how much they have said about plans to deal with the deficit. Osborne’s conference speech gave a huge amount of information (so much so that people thought he might have made a major mistake by revealing too much). OK, as he acknowleged, it was only part of the story, but at least a serious start has been made, and no doubt more will be coming. Labour, on the other hand, have said absolutely nothing whatsoever, although you can possibly glean a bit from the PBR documents - indeed they seem to be going back to the position of denying there is a problem.
Also I’m surprised you say that the election won’t turn on this anyway. I’d have thought this will be the key defining issue of the election.
The Wrath of Cam?
Walks to coat rack..
263 - The PBR outlines how the fiscal position has to be tightened. You seem to be conflating the immediate position (where spending is being deliberately maintained to support the recovery) with the medium and long-term one (where the scale of the fiscal tightening is made clear).
You have not shown that you will do things any differently. (Indeed Edmund in Tokyo makes an intriguing case for why you’ll have more problems than Labour, feel free to engage with it
)
272. Or ‘Return of the Tori’
Heads to the Coat Rack too..
272:
Posh Nobs and Boom-bust
271 - No, Osborne has not said anything more about the how the undetermined fiscal tightening will be made up than Labour. If he has you’ll point me to a link…?
“I’d have thought this will be the key defining issue of the election.”
It should be, but both parties have decided not to engage in it for their own reasons. Unless something dramatic changes I expect both parties to go into the campaign without revealing their plans for delivering the required tightening. It should be the #1 issue but I doubt it will be discussed at all. Strange.
272 - Lock Stock and Two Double Barrels.
270
“A lotta people won’t get no supper tonight
A lotta people won’t get no justice tonight
The battle is getting harder
In this iration, Armagieon time”
Sounds about right…
(on the flip side (double A sided single, if my memory serves right) with London Calling, with its quaint notion that “The ice-age is coming…”)
272 - don’t have a title, but the scale of the problem is so vast that the villain will be Jabba the Warehouse
On Bercow - I think Farage has a real shot, he will in effect become the Tory candidate against the liberal/NuLabour/NuTory candidate Bercow in a traditional Tory seat. With Farage fully behind the area’s grammar schools too (Buckinghamshire is a fully selective county) and Bercow’s wife opposed it will be a nail-biter!
270, 277: There’s always “Armagideon Days are here (again)” by The The
:
They’re 5 miles high as the crow flies
leavin’ vapour trails against a blood red sky
Movin’ in from the East toward the West
with Balaclava helmets over their heads, yes!
But if you think that Jesus Christ is coming
Honey you’ve got another thing coming
If he ever finds out who’s hi-jacked his name
He’ll cut out his heart and turn in his grave
Islam is rising
The Christians mobilising
The world is on its elbows and knees
It’s forgotten the message and worships the creeds
It’s war, she cried, It’s war, she cried, this is war
Drop your possessions, all you simple folk
You will fight them on the beaches in your underclothes
You will thank the good lord for raising the union jack
You’ll watch the ships sail out of harbour
and the bodies come floating back
If the real Jesus Christ were to stand up today
He’d be gunned down cold by the C.I.A.
Oh, the lights that now burn brightest behind stained glass
Will cast the darkest shadows upon the human heart
But God didn’t build himself that throne
God doesn’t live in Israel or Rome
God doesn’t belong to the yankee dollar
God doesn’t plant the bombs for Hezbollah
God doesn’t even go to church
And God won’t send us down to Allah to burn
No, God will remind us what we already know
That the human race is about to reap what it’s sown
The world is on its elbows and knees
It’s forgotten the message and worships the creeds
Armageddon days are here again
The OsBourne Supremacy
282 - and just for tim: The OsBourne Inheritance Tax
244 - I think you’re right there. Paradoxically, this is very dangerous for Labour and the Lib Dems. I don’t think public sector workers realise just how unpopular they are. If they start striking (for example, to keep final salary pensions), they are going to get still less popular. If Labour and the Lib Dems get too close to them - a real danger for Labour - the Tories will be firmly embedded in power for years to come.
201/197 Neil/Mr Nabavi
I have several years experience of gaming the Gershon process and it’s deck-chair moving on a grand scale.
Myself and my colleagues would come up with ‘efficiency savings’ which were entirely retrospective and creative use of language to claim that we’d saved money. I claimed a saving of over a £100k because staff had access to Blackberries - it was ‘new technology’ so must have generated ’savings’ [the fact that it was actually funded by another dept and not mine of course didn't count].
And once we’d run out of this sort of rubbish, we’d cite things we’d already decided to do and dress them up as ‘real savings’ - ie not replace a lazy sod as they did bugger all anyway and making their post redundant was a handy way to solve the problem.
Or just stopped doing something that wasn’t working and claiming it was the result of cost control.
I regret to say that Gershon as implemented is complete b0llocks - I’m sure his intentions and recommendations were sound and worthy.
Now which party do you think this could represent?
I’m a Curious Yellow
http://modium.blogspot.com/2005/09/i-am-curious-yellow-1967.html
I just love the way this review begins:
This is one of the worst, godawful, piece of crap “movies” I’ve ever seen. It joins the ranks of I Spit on Your Grave and Resident Evil: Apocalypse as being more than just bad movies. See, these three films, and maybe more than I’ve blocked out, go far beyond annoyingly bad. These are films that depress me, that suck the life and happiness from me, that ruin my entire day.
How apt..
260. ‘Plus, if the Tory consensus here is right that the markets trust the Tories and distrust Labour, Brown will have to take more drastic steps to stop them freaking out and running on the pound or upping the interest rates they demand on debt.’
ED in T, you’re post reminds me of a piece written by Redwood shortly after the ‘97 defeat in which he wished Labour well with NHS reform saying their position would allow them the scope to carry out reforms the Tory position lacked. Of course JR didn’t count on Brown.
The tack taken by this Government ensures that post GE they will have to prove themselves to highly suspicious markets.
Contrast with the line taken by the Tories, symbolised by George Osborne’s risky speech at Conference.
285 - “I regret to say that Gershon as implemented is complete b0llocks - I’m sure his intentions and recommendations were sound and worthy.”
Showing how completely ridiculous it is to claim that there are easy and “efficient” cuts out there to be made. When the cuts come, they are going to be hard and real.
284 - tbh its not just the public secotr, but anyone who seemingly has a priveleged position in the workplace and is still complaining about it - look at what happened with the reaction to BA staff.
Still - what’s interesting is how many people at the top of big organisations (both public and private) have retained final salary schemes …
Can we do some 2010 predictions.
Here’s my first.
The destiny of one Shadow Cabinet Ministers career.
Mercy Hospital Grayling
1100 Michigan Avenue
Grayling, MI 49738
258. Nice post Nick - you come on here, post a lot of tendentious stuff and then airily dismiss the criticism of it as ‘what I predicted’.
I think in the New Year you might want to think a bit about whether you are actually interested in debating on this site, rather than just posting ’spin of the day’ or snide remarks about other posters. Certainly the special status you apparently claim for yourself as a poster is increasingly not supported by your actual postings.
290, we’ll have the 2010 predictions competition shortly. I suspect I’ve done somewhat, but not woefully, badly with the 2009 ones.
283 - Soundtrack.
“You’re all in this together”
“Fop to the top”
I’d love to see Peter Kellner back on the election night programme again.
Brown is at his happiest amidst economic doom:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WHDosqeQurI
290 - and let’s not forget the destination of the reclusive prime minister -
http://www.brownreclusespider.org/
264 - surely you mean JaJa BOnks
290 - and the destination of the prime minister..
http://www.brownreclusespider.org/
292 - When it comes to idiotic predictions at this time of year, David Camerons “The VAT cut has failed” issued on January 2nd, must rank pretty highly.
297 tim - Why?
276. Few people are mentally prepared for the kind of reductions that are coming, the Labour activist base would abandon Labour if they knew, and the Conservatives would lose the support of many who may suffer.
If we are to be on our way to dealing with the fiscal deficit the budget for 2014 will have to be 15% to 25% less then that of 2010 (or corresponding taxes will have to rise), taking into account inflation.
That news is unpalatable for far to many, but it is the truth.
We will see many sacred cows being slaughtered. If DC and GO do it right, they will be the most unpopular british politicians in living memory.
273 Neil, I’m not conflating anything. I have a particular view which is to judge belief by actions. Osborne has outlined real cuts and real savings, not short term but long term, Labour haven’t and their message is “it’ll be alright on the night, trust us”. Putting something in the PBR isn’t action, after all in the 2007 Budget Gordon promised to reduce the deficit to near zero by 2009/10.
Edmund could be right, Gordon Brown could be put in position he has to cut harder and faster because the markets force him to (my point 3 in post 221 restated by Edmund as “Brown will have to take more drastic steps to stop them freaking out and running on the pound or upping the interest rates they demand on debt.)
Surely that is what we don’t want. We had it before, just after I started working, when the 70’s Labour Government imposed an across the board capital expenditure cut, that then impacted the railways, phone services, airlines, oil and gas exploration as well as schools, hospitals, road transport.
So new telephone exchanges were delayed for years and waiting lists grew, track was closed and new locomotives not ordered(and some world leading research into maglev for example and high speed trains cancelled and the market handed over to the French and Chinese), by- passes and motorways cancelled. It took 20 or more years for the impacts of those cancellations to be dealt with, some through privatisations bringing in new capital, some waited until Gordon opened his cheque book.
So what would Gordon be forced to shelve this time? Olympics spend cut, Crossrail, the carriers (and other armed forces capital projects) high speed rail link to Birmingham and the North, road construction, new school & hospital building most probably. Probably goodbye to CO2 reduction targets as Government couldn’t subsidise or guarantee investment in off shore windfarms and wave generation, nuclear power etc.
Then there would be enforced wage freezes, frozen pensions & social security benefits, freeze of public sector recruitment.
#258 …Curious about the name [Batch file] - it makes me think of computing of a bygone age.
Batch files/processing still very much alive.
A quick search on my machine (WinXP) reveals 300+ such files (*.bat; *.cmd etc).
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Batch_processing
290 2010 predictions.
Lots more people will try to knock over His Holiness. And it will all be down to these people:
http://www.mapquest.com/maps?name=Pope+Bowling&city=Pope+Afb&state=NC&address=751+Armistead+St
258. “Curious about the name - it makes me think of computing of a bygone age”
Batch programmes are not computing of a bygone age and are very much still in use.
Yellow Submarine December 31st, 2009 at 12:34 pm
That seems to suggest that Cameron and co do not know that and will not do something about it?
I think the election campaign will be as much positioning for after the election as for the vote itself.
So the Tories will build the story of Labour culpability so the blame will stick later when the Tory government has to do unpopular things. Subtext: Never again let them do that to you so we have to do this to you. Three times a century is enough of Labour.
Labour will build the myth that the Tories are destroying the recovery so they have a story ready for opposition. Ps they eat babies and are racists too, of course. Subtext: we would have won and done much better but the people were stupid and let the Tories in. Lets change the voting system.
Hehe, nice story from Mr. Dale:
http://iaindale.blogspot.com/2009/12/well-thats-police-vote-gone.html
298
Because Tim wants to create another meme.
Nick@258,
That post says an awful lot more about you than you probably realise.
Is this how the ‘Things Can Only Get Better’ decade will be remembered?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-1239546/JOHN-HUMPHRYS-Noughties-No-Nasties–good-riddance-them.html
297 tim, why are you so sensitive to the meme that the VAT cut was money p155ed up a wall? Is it because it was, er, £15 billion p155ed up wall?
£15,000,000,000 could instead have gone to create, oh, I don’t know - maybe 1,000,000 apprenticeships at £15,000 for a year. Now, remind me again - how many kids are out of work?
285 Lyons is rubbish as well. No notice was taken of the costs of relocating people, redundancies and the increased cost of recruiting people to go and live and work in the sticks. It might be cheaper to recruit clerical staff in, say, Coventry, but your professional staff are harder to recruit - there is a smaller pool of people in the area, and no-one wants to relocate to, say Coventry, because it’s unlikely their next job will be in the area and they will have to relocate again.
A quango I used to work for put together a Board paper saying that, granted, Mayfair was not the ultimately most cost effective place to be, but the best in terms of cost-effectiveness and business continuity was somewhere else in greater London (not sure if it was Docklands or somewhere on the outskirts like Watford or Croydon). The parent department told them to go away and think again. What is actually important is moving employment to Labour constituencies outside London.
They were supposed to move in May, as far as I know haven’t moved yet and are p1ssing loads of money up against the wall in the meantime maintaining two bases, and of course they are haemorrhaging staff, and paying the ones they manage to keep well over the odds to stay around. A mess.
304. As detoxing the brand has been so central to the cameron project i’m sure he is well aware how quickly he could retox it if he isn’t careful?
So what Iconic conservative sacred cow will he sacrifice to the spending cuts in order to be seen to share the pain?
I thought Jack Straw was meant to a safe pair of hands?
YS,
Something in defense, Aircraft carriers perhaps?
292 - When it comes to idiotic predictions at this time of year, David Camerons “The VAT cut has failed” issued on January 2nd, must rank pretty highly. by tim December 31st, 2009 at 1:26 pm
A buisness interview from a top economist stated the increase in VAT probably would not make a great deal of difference except to the shops who would be thrown into chaos once more. Apparently he thought the 4 billion it cost was wasted and the plan made no difference. This was then followed by an advert where a well known furniture maker was advertising sofas at 50% off and right at the end it said ‘beat the Vat rise’. I guess that means you would get 52.5% off instead. ROTFLMAO!!!
Now do you see Tim how idiotic acts this was it and done to get votes rather than anything else. Cameron was completly right as we can’t all go out and buy 15k cars and holidays to take any proper benefit.
I know you will ask for a link which I don’t have but please be assured it was stated. no doubt the lack of the link will be used by you to rubbish the point as normal.
I regret to say that Gershon as implemented is complete b0llocks - I’m sure his intentions and recommendations were sound and worthy.
by Plato December 31st, 2009 at 1:12 pm
Yes, and it will never work unless the departmental budgets are cut in cash terms and the Treasury keeps a close eye on it. Don’t meet the target Mr mandarin and no nice gong for you. Overspend the target and you can win the honour of being consul in the Falklands.
298 - Because even now the jury is still out on how effective the VAT cut was.
For Cameron to say it had failed on January 2nd was idiotic.
310. Maybe it will take a Conservative Government to abolish the RAF and Royal Navy as separate forces, they are now small enough to be classed as regiments in one British armed forces, or the cancellation of Trident. It will cause discomfort, but can be justified within the overall context of spending reduction.
Nice to know that Nick Palmer can’t be bothered to reply to the little people on here. We are too tedious in asking difficult questions and pointing out painful truths.
Spinners hate that.
305 The police [ordinary ranks - excluding senior met officiers] are are often Tory anyway. Maybe this is another example of abandoning anything other than your core vote.
tim yes, indeed, the VAT cut brought us out of recession at the same time as France, Germany, the USA and everyone one else, didn’t it?
But not Spain, which as you know, is part of the G20.
313 ‘The jury is out’ on whether Cameron was wrong, from prominent pb left[y).
Powerful stuff.
Tory sacred cows to go.
Pension relief at more than basic rate of tax.
Farm subsidies.
Criminalisation of drugs.
£30 Billion per year.
Done.
Spain part of the G20 - I never knew that? Was at the behest of G J Brown - saviour of the world?
319. Farm subsidies are agreed on an EU level.
314 “Maybe it will take a Conservative Government to abolish the RAF and Royal Navy as separate forces, they are now small enough to be classed as regiments in one British armed forces, or the cancellation of Trident. It will cause discomfort, but can be justified within the overall context of spending reduction.”
What Oblox. A Regiment typicaly consists of 3-4 battalions, which equates to roughly 3000 heads. Even in their much reduced forms, the Navy and RAF establishment are each somewhere between 40 and 50,000.
310 A tax on wallpaper and soft furnishings AKA the ‘Obsorne and Little’ tax.
313 - So you prefer predictions to be definitely wrong rather than unproven?
A Tory sacred cow ripe for the slaughter is the defence budget. Maybe now is the time for unilateral nuclear disarmament: after all, the people we now worry about holding nuclear bombs aren’t going to be deterred by the risk of us bombing them.
310
YS
Simples
No IHT cuts.
(stops tim for a start dead in his tracks).
Cut MOD. Cuts military spend.
If I were Cameron, presentation on cuts - at the START - is all. So start with cutting things Labour should do but have no balls - because they fear the Tories critcism…
Cut MPs’ salaries.
Cut No of Ministerial cars. Stop the Communications Allowance.
All in it together..
Or : lead by example.
290 - 2010 predictions:
http://www.brown.edu/
Surely somebody here could teach Gordon something about the basics of finance and economics.
312 I agree, the only way is to cut spending in cash terms, stop ringfencing the salaries budget (as far as I am concerned, government departments can pay people what they like as long as they can deliver reduced costs year on year) and let them get on with it.
Any up from expenditure needed, e.g. to relocate or make redundancies, should be funded from an equivalent cut in future budgets.
One of the problems is the way quangos, in particular, are funded. There are so many little pots of money that are used to look into a minister’s pet project, say, or some work the parent department wants done, that it is almost impossible year on year top say what the budget should be. In addition, staff get taken on to do these little projects, but never cut when the project ends.
The other reason for removing the salaries ringfence is the amount of smoke and mirrors that goes into explaining how your pay rise is actually 2% when you are giving your top performers 7% and a bonus and strangely no-one actually gets less than the rate of inflation apart from 2 or 3 sacrificial f*ckwits who any private sector organisation would have fired years ago. It’s all done under the guise of “recyclable savings” and it’s amazing what you can do with notional paybills because the headcount is either going to rise or fall. The alternative is of course to lie when you write your pay remit, and then next year find a way of showing that black is white and your pay rise really was 2%. As quangos usually employ real accountants in finance, and parent departments generalist administrators in the quango-liaison team, it’s not a difficult job to do.
In the meantime, every manager in a quango is trying to corner as much money, people, consultants etc for their department as possible, partly for willy-waving purposes, partly because every so often you get the consultants in to do a market pay survey, aimed at showing that your self-aggrandised “command” is such that you need another pay hike, preferably backdated to some spurious date in the past for good measure.
Departments don’t mind this, as they are congenitally incapable of thinking outside the box or being fleet of foot, so they prefer to be able to bung some dosh at a quango and get shot of the job.
Re the end of the Noughties - IIRC Cuba was the one country that decided to celebrate then Millenium on 31 Dec 2000.
322 - A tax on cocaine, prostitutes and fox hunting.
Leaglise them all and sell franchises.
323 - I can’t really work out wheterh it was a prediction, an analysis of the first few weeks or gibberish.
‘Batch File’ ?
Harks back to original computing as you say and happy days indeed! but as posters have pointed out they are still in use. I always think of Labour when I write it as batch files are
useful for running a sequence of “executables” automatically. ;>)
My first computer adventure was the design of a program that ran using only hundreds of ‘punch cards’ possibly the purest original form of a ‘batch file’ you might say but then we went to ‘ticker tape’ which always seemed to jam up at the critical point. To think of it now makes me shudder.
Its a tad more easier these days of course in a much more complicated sort of way if you get the drift.
325 Crikey - my spelling has gone kaput - millennium
316. 305. Unfortunately for Iain Dale the campaign in the second post on his blog is likely to upset the police. The police like having the DNA of innocent people on file.
316. ACPO has essentially cultivated an entire management core that is New Labour in its every fibre.
326 - He was trying to mould popular opinion about a particular subject. Much as you are trying to do now.
So what Iconic conservative sacred cow will he sacrifice to the spending cuts in order to be seen to share the pain?
by Yellow Submarine December 31st, 2009 at 1:38 pm
I think it more likely it is reducing personal taxation which will be sacrificed. That really is the biggest Tory sacred cow, rather than any expenditure item.
O/T.
Plato, I know you’re a fan and observer of the shallowness of Jeremy Hunt.
Here’s his fantastic interview on the Tories “million pound prize website” nonsense from yesterdays Today programme, his co interviewee demolishes Barbies Ken I’m afraid.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/today/hi/today/newsid_8434000/8434359.stm
284.”244 - I think you’re right there. Paradoxically, this is very dangerous for Labour and the Lib Dems. I don’t think public sector workers realise just how unpopular they are. If they start striking (for example, to keep final salary pensions), they are going to get still less popular. If Labour and the Lib Dems get too close to them - a real danger for Labour - the Tories will be firmly embedded in power for years to come.”
antifrank, you are bang on the money there. The public sector had its boom years over the last decade with Gordon spending money on it like a drunken sailor, I don’t think they can strike their way out of the very nasty hangover. The lack of public support for these types of strikes has been palpable already this year, and the dire straits of the armed forces and the MOD finances is going to be added to the mix as well. This time around, that will not be the most popular area for cuts either.
*** BETTING POST ***
The Dallas Cowboys have made it to the post season. The final game against the Eagles will determine who wins the Division.
The Cowboys are odds on to win the game, however the Eagles are lower odds for both the Conference title and the Superbowl.
If you think the Eagles are going to win on Sunday, back them.
If you think the Cowboys will win, back them for the Conference or Superbowl as a trading opportunity because I think their price will shorten if they win.
331 - Who’s better?
BTW how you were excluded from the tipster poll is beyond me.
324 When I moved from the private blue-chip sector to the public local sector, I got a base payrise of £19k.
Yes - £19k. This was justified as a ‘market rate uplift’ for the job so it fell outside of the usual banding.
In my previous life, I’d had a lot of perks [company car/fuel, blah blah] and this was translated into £19k per annum.
I subsequently learned that the same body recruited oodles of people using the same trick.
I suspect that’s how so many public sector appointments are way OTT and paid more than the PM. It also provides a great mechanism to ratchet up local pay to maintain ‘differentials’.
As the conversation has wandered around budgets, spending and deficits, I thought I’d try to have a play to get the real scale of the problem. After all, a £50 million exopenditure sounds big, but to a budget the size of the Governments, it’s probably comparable to a packet of fags for a family budget.
So, scaling to about a “family of four” size (very loosely defined as “divide Budget by 15 million” and rounding off):
Monthly (take home) income has gone from about £2950 in 2005/6 to £3000 in 06/07, £3100 in 07/08 and dropped back to about £2950 in 08/09. Forecast is for £2750 in 09/10, before climbing back to £2950 in 10/11.
Monthly outgoings have gone from about £3150 in 2005/6 to £3200 in 06/7, £3300 in 07/8 and up to £3500 in 08/09.
Forecast is for £3750 in 09/10 and up to £3900 in 10/11
Or to put it another way, whilst we were in the good times, our family wasn’t able to live within its means, spending a couple of hundred quid per month more than we earned. And now, with income badly hit, we’re spending more. Up to £1000 borrowed per month to make ends meet. That’s not good.
Our combined overdraft, loans and credit card bill (not paid off) has climbed from £32500 in 05/06 to £49500 in 08/09. By the end of the 09/10 FY, we’ll owe £64000. This will climb by at least £10,000 per year for at least the next 2 years.
On this scale, we’re spending just over £200 per month on defence, £650 on health, £500 on education, £180 or so on “public order” (cops?), nearly as much on interest on our debts (£170 - fortunately we’re benefiting from the drop in interest rates) and over £1000 on welfare. Oh, and about £57 on the environment and £17 on science/technology.
Income tax and NI between them bring in over £1300 of our monthly income. VAT plus excise duties are over £600. Business rates and corporation tax amount to £320. IHT is £12.
338.
Wow.
334. Do the Tories actually have any plans to downgrade public sector pensions though?
333 I have no idea what you are talking about, tim.
I have higlighted his 1p expense claim - does that make me a ‘fan’ of his? I suspect most readers wouldn’t agree.
http://plato-says.blogspot.com/2009/06/best-expense-claim-1p-phone-call.html
335 - The Cowboys beat Philly in week 9, but in the playoff game last year, Philly won 44-6. ouch
341 - I was paying you a compliment, you highlighted a particularly vacuuous Hunt performance on Any Questions IIRC
I’m awful at predictions and TV debates put an extra roll of the dice in the mix but here it goes. My old economics teacher always used to say ” Look at the fundamentals, Young Submarine” and they seem stark.
I see no plausible senario what so ever where by in 4 or 5 months those that want the buggers out won’t out number and be massively more motivated than those that want to cling to nurse for fear of something worse. If you feed that into a First Past the Post system and all its brutality you get a large Conservative victory.
If it doesn’t happen naturally then the media will summon an “others moment” from the ether in the campaign on top of the Youtube doorsteping of Gordon by a bereaved parent of a dead soldier where he can’t really explain in 30 seconds why we are still in Afghanistan. The dead tree pressed saved some ammo for a final burst of expenses pre election.
The budget which will be dubbed “emergency” within 50 days of taking office will be a psychological watershed for those people who thought it all over or were previously uneffected.
It won’t peak in 2010 but it will start. The scale of the retrenchment of the public sector will be so large it won’t be able to be managed and there will be unrest and strikes. BA and the Royal mail will go off again. The economy will be flat and people will be bewildered because they bore the long night because dawn was comming but it hasn’t arrived.
The fact that both D Milliband and the dark lord have stayed in domestic politics will probably stop Harriet Harman being Labour Leader but not quite if the scale of the defeat is that bad in seats. Nick Clegg will lead a bewildered and marginally reduced group of MP’s not knowing quite what to do. There’ll be little traction in supporting the savage cuts and he can’t oppose them as he used the term in the first place. A churned and more urban parliamentry party will go to default setting and act as life raft for blairites and quickly set up camp in tory marginals ignoring Labours internal strife but crucially not repeating the deapitation strategy of 2005 or targeting an opposition not the government.
It’ll be retro night at the liberal left. Voting reform, realignment and greenery will form a comforting culdesac for the survivors.
Cameron as the new Disraeli will do something, I don’t know what on constitutional reform , and will be savvy enough to sacrifice at least one totemic Tory cow to share the pain of the cuts. He may deal directly with Salmond on a Preferendum and will be benign to a law making powers referendum for the sennedd. This will be in retrun for reductions in the westminster delegations from scotland and wales. This will Save the Union on paper but lay the foundations of a proper Federation where by the “celts” will forge an even more seperate political identity in response to the public spending squeeze.
The BNP will flare again around ASB and police number cuts. Still no one will make the big ” Shopping doesn’t make you Happy” speech pointing out we are heading for an extended period of making more things, spending less, consuming less, saving more and that most advertising creates cravings rather than informs needs and is bad for everyones mental health.
338 May I reference you in a blog post? That’s a jolly good analysis.
I’ve been toying with a similar version using the debt and =cash on seats in a Premier League footie ground.
340 Civil Service pensions have already been downgraded - new joiners now join a career average scheme rather than a final salary one, with a retirement age of 65 rather than 60, and a reduced accrual rate.
No sure what, if any, progress has been made on NHS and local government pensions.
339.SallyC, indeed, wow.
333. That is impressive. He is going to combat ridiculous government overspends on IT by, erm, paying some randomer a million quid out of the Cabinet Office budget to set up a blog.
This takes the heat off Grayling.
327. I cut my teeth on IBM 3090s, mostly batch jobs. JCL condition codes are designed to catch you out.
“If the condition is true, bypass the step.”
322 - A tax on cocaine, prostitutes and fox hunting.
Leaglise them all and sell franchises. by tim December 31st, 2009 at 2:00 pm
% Cocaine use and prositutes are no doubt equally ’shared’ amongst the parties as the entire population. In regard to Fox hunting I have pointed out as many working class take part as do any others.
However as I have asked this question before I will ask you again why don’t we ban the sport of dragging fish out of water with barbed hooks in the sides of their mouths? Or are the common working mans ’sports’ OK rather than the incorrectly perceived Tory sports which are not.
In other words its all Bo**ox and an extension of Labours class war but of course Tim if you say it / write it and even wish it often enough it becomes true in Nu Labour panto’ land.
One other thing. If Labour have outlawed hate crimes against minorities how can they now engage in a class war. Tad hypocritical I think. Maybe thats one for NPMP?
By the way on that subject I still hevent noticed a hasn’t answer my previous question about the Tories being a disaster if elected (Maybe I missed it) Come then now Nick Palmer MP what would you call our present position then?
346 - New teachers and NHS workers also have a pension age of 65 now, local government workers (existing and new) already did.
How big is a trillion?
It’s this big and almost to much to comprehend - how big is Gordon’s?
319 tim ‘Pension relief at more than basic rate of tax’ (to go)
BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!
Lets have extra tax relief for Watford fans!!!!!!
344 Yellow Submarine. Do you not think if Labour are beaten that badly the Lib Dems could advance at all? In the historical context of a Conservative victory a net gain of of one seat would be impressive. Perhaps the debates offer Clegg a way to shore up his flank agaiunst the Conservatives without diverting resources from those Labour seats they hope to gain.
Rod, I cut my teeth on an IBM System/360 model 40 - 512k of memory running spanking new OS/360 release 16. It had a 1000 cards a minute reader, tape drives that were fabulous to watch doing a 6 tape sort, a paper tape reader and a data cell…
cond=(new,delete,keep) and don’t forget the X in column 72 for continuation
338: Top Post, Andy.
I wonder if anyone in any political party will have the courage to put the State’s finance’s in such clear and understandable terms. I doubt it, but I live in hope.
345, Plato - feel free.
Got to go work on a trifle (quite literally - custard making time)
353 Watford has already been bailed out by a Peer of the realm. Be grateful.
351 Yeah, but don’t local government workers have some very generous early retirement rights? “The rule of 30″ or something meaning you can retire early without an actuarial reduction? I’m thinking of taking my frozen Civil Service pension early, but an actuarial reduction is only fair.
Cameron, puts his arm around Bercow.
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/thetorydiary/2009/12/buckingham-tories-ordered-by-cchq-to-campaign-for-john-bercow-or-stay-silent.html
So Farage to win then.
327 When I was little, my dad was one of a few programmers [self taught] who could produce commercial computer code - he had the Boiler Makers Union as one of his clients!
I was surrounded by huge Burroughs machines and paper tape read outs - no one younger than me believes that this was ‘cutting edge’ stuff at the time!
He was a terrible waster of money too - we found an unpacked Winchester drive many years later - it cost about £30k new in the mid-70s
352. I just checked out the HM Treasury site where last week I decided from their spending report that the totals of all the categories added up to 58% of GDP.
There is a new link this evening which might have been there before but I hadn’t looked at it. It shows that the 2009 spending totals are now 50% of GDP….
There is an unexplained, wait for it, deep breath, GBP 100 billion accounting adjustment (actually GBP 99.5 billion).
If you want to read it yourself click my name and it’s in top post in my blog.
Your picture of so many banknotes gives some idea how much money we are dealing with, but someone merely adjusting an account with no explanatory note at all by GBP 100 billion?!!!!!!!!
It takes the biscuit…
Plato, we even had a 1401 in the computer room that had a punch card program that played ‘Anchors Aweigh’ on the printer
344.YS, excellent post.
“This will Save the Union on paper but lay the foundations of a proper Federation where by the “celts” will forge an even more seperate political identity in response to the public spending squeeze.”
I disagree with this bit though, and some can immediately jump to the conclusion that I would say that anyway. The continued political and constitutional tinkering that has gone on in Holyrood as part of their attempts to look busy and relevant at the big table was largely ignored by the general public up here. Take STV voting/Calman etc, most are not even aware of it when its being discussed and decided. But the next biggie will be more fiscal powers moving back across the border, and this is the one that will resonate and make people sit up and take more notice.
It won’t be popular with the public right now, and that is because Holyrood has yet to prove itself capable of dealing with these decisions in the good and the bad times. The demands of the public sector and their attempts to be totally ring fenced from this recession is no more popular up here than anywhere else in the UK. Already we are seeing savage cuts in some area’s not because of the current recession or cutbacks, but because of very poor fiscal decisions taken before it. We were not even in the position of having seen any real and palpable improvements in some area’s despite the increased spending there. And in other area’s we actually didn’t invest enough when we should have been. 10 years of devolution, and one thing that is for sure, its totally screwed the idea of the public warming to fiscal independence for another decade at least. That was the biggest failure of Holyrood.
The biggest sacred cow about to be nuked in the next few years, the idea that Scotland is still totally anti Tory just like the old days under Thatcher.
357 Thanks Andy - have trifling fun
360. We all know Bercow is not Dave’s favourite Tory but he, unlike Gordon, is not a sore loser and expects folks to play by the rules.
Yellow Sub talking the country down again I see. Tim likely to be tedious about it.
But you are right. After the election many people are going to feel upset as there has been constructed over the last ten years the myth that the government can put all things right, usually by spending our money. So no quick fix will bad temper make.
What really, and I am serious, would be scary is a Labour win or hung parliament after a campaign saying all is rosy, no panic, no pain, and then they have to slash and burn like there is no tomorrow. And indeed there wouldn’t be unless they went over the top on the austerity.
The irony is that the ‘Tories are tough’ line means they may be able to get away with less pain than the distrusted incompetent Labour government reelected.
And the really scary part would be the reaction of an electorate returning a Labour government or hung parliament when they saw the reality.
If would be very unpretty indeed.
344 YS - Yep, that sounds about right. Not quite sure about Scotland, and I think Cameron will find a number of popular/populist measures to sweeten the pills.
358
we need all the help we can get!
Ave it tax solution!
VAT up to 25% (European average - sort of)
All tax credits abolished!!!
All handouts phased out over 5 years
PA = £10,000 per person (transferable between legally married or same sex couples on earned income)
Scrap restriction of PA on ‘higher earners’ (HA HA HA)
Scrap 50% tax rate
Scrap NI increases, reduce base NI to 10% capped at 40% income tax threshold
CGT to be charged at marginal income tax rate - ie stop all these rich ‘enterprise scheme’ types paying nothing!
IHT stays at £325,000 all reliefs and exemptions scrapped!
368 if we (Con) need SNP support in a hung parliament (although we will go to DUP first and thats 10 seats) then we will do whatever is necessary to get this!
367
Will not happen.
Labour do not want to win. (C Clarke does not realise it).
Under your scenario, UNITE would stop funding Labour ASAP and the PLP would collapse.
Gordon knows he is going to lose, wants to lose (well he does not but fears winning more).. hence core vote strategy.
May I wish all pb’ers a happy new year, and one where we agree to disagree in a polite and civil fashion.
Please do also keep an eye on my Save Bedford Hospital website http://www.vote4barry.blogspot.com
In the absence of Shadsy’s markets on who will be PM/Foreign Secretary etc at the end of the year., my predictions are.
PM - Cameron
FS- Hague FFS
Home Sec - Pickles.
CoE - Hammond.
261 “Buckingham. Cameron is worried by this situation. The Times reports that Conservatives in Buckingham are thinking of backing Farage. Cameron has threatened members will be thrown out if they do.
Cameron should think carefully before using such threats. Many Conservatives would like to throw him out.
Farage elected to Parliament would be a consolation following Cameron’s betrayal on Lisbon.
338 Andy - Yes, excellent stuff.
One quibble, though (not with you, but with the way the finances are presented by the government):
£650 on health, £500 on education..
That is actually £650 on the health budget and £500 on the education budget, which is not quite the same thing. When a relative of mine (who is a senior consultant) gets sent on idiotic ‘training courses’ unrelated to medicine (and, believe me, some of them really are idiotic), that comes out of the health budget, but it’s not spending on healthcare.
Part of what desperately needs to be done is to find and root out those idiocies.
360 Can they do that if there is no official Conservative standing?
373 tim - Yes, Yes, Very likely, No.
374
You remind me of the Conservative Party of the 1990s : nasty and short sighted.
No wonder I and other Tory supporters stopped voting Tory.
Bercow seems to me to be restoring some dignity to the Office of Speaker after an idiot.
I dont think bercow has anything to worry about in buckingham. I quite like his wife too!
All ukip = lol
christina, scotland is anti tory, with 1 mp now and none at all for some of the last 10 years we can say that thatcher was hated EVERYWHERE IN SCOTLAND and with good reason.
people do not like labour in scotland that much, but compared to the tories they are the preferred option.
WHEN CAMERON APOLOGISES FOR THE POLL TAX FIASCO, SHUTTING SCOTTISH INDUSTRY, FALSIFYING THE TRUTH ON THE SCOTTISH ECONOMY AND OIL REVENUE ALONG WITH LABOUR AND AGEEING THAT DEVOLUTION WAS PASSED IN 79 AND SHOULD HAVE BEEN INSTIGATED THEN INSTEAD OF BEING OBSTRUCTED THEN I WILL TAKE HIM SERIOUSLY.
idle promises on the never never are more of the same. it might fool the scotsman with mad dog and his columns that one cannot comment on anymore, but the real world knows better.
frakly christine, your idea that anyone with half a brain would ever forgive the tories until they accept their misdemeanours is ludicrous.
UNTIL THEN AS I SEE IT HE IS JUST ANOTHER OLD ETONIAN LOOKING AFTER NUMBER 1 AND 2 AND 3 AND 4…
happy to be proved wrong. but 1 seat now and probably just 1 or 2 next time though FPTP means i am right.
if i was english and lived in england i would probably vote tory, that is the conundrum. bit being the best of a bad bunch menas support is very soft and the class war barriers are fertile ground as long as big biz and parliaments plural are seen to be ripping people off, with cameron happy to be a part of it.
368.Richard, the next big moment for the SNP in Holyrood will be Swinney’s budget. If he does a Brown/Darling/Balls, the SNP could well be toast in 2011, will they try to stretch the elastic for another year in the hope that a possible incoming Tory government will get the blame for the even worse situation in 2011 if that is the case?
We know that Labour and the Libdems could spend money like it was going out of fashion leaving gaping black fiscal holes in the supposed good times up here. But have the SNP got the bottle to take the tough decisions and stand tall taking the responsibility for them?
Not looking good so far, they borrowed on next years money already, and they are trying to blame Darling and Labour for any shortfall this year because the overdraft has not been extended. How on earth can they, or anyone else demand fiscal independence if they cannot even do that is beyond me.
344. YS
and will be savvy enough to sacrifice at least one totemic Tory cow to share the pain of the cuts
I generally agree with your assessment. However, I’m intrigued about what sort of ‘totemic sacred cows’ you think Cameron might sacrifice?
377 - In the spirit of the season I am prepared to offer a £50 bet ate evens that Chris Grayling will not be Home Secretary in a Tory Admin.
I’m being generous, he’s the incumbent and Cameron promoted him.
So first come first served, don’t knock me down in the rush.
381. “How on earth can they, or anyone else demand fiscal independence if they cannot even do that is beyond me.”
Because if Premise A is bogus, Premise B falls.
But if your theoretical argument is that a poorly-performing government renders a nation unsuitable for fiscal independence (let alone statehood) then given your views on the present British government, perhaps it’s time for the UK to be absorbed into Greater France or Greater Germany.
380.Oddly enough, that very anti Thatcher feeling that saw us wiped out in 97′ could actually be the best legacy that she hands to a possible Cameron government in the future. We are in the worst economic situation in 60 years, and the long term outlook is still looking dire. And the one party that cannot be blamed for that is the current Tory party, think about it!
378 “No wonder I and other Tory supporters stopped voting Tory.
Then you got the Labour Government you wanted.
You should be pleased
386 - Your nightime posts predict doom for Labour, the LDs and the SNP in Scotland.
How many seats do you expect the Tories to win?
367. Sorry if it comes across that way.
368,364. Happy to defer to you on Scotland. One of my weaknesses.
I’m signing off for 2009. A Happy New Year to One and All. A site with this quality of contribution, instant publishing and light touch moderation is a minor miracle and long may it continue.
As is my want I’ll finish with an Anecdote Alert.
I was pleasently surprised to be taken out for dinner and drinks by an old University friend on what seemed like a sudden and slightly contrived pretext. Terrific evening and the cock tails kept flowing and i began to wonder what the pitch would be when it came.
I was then properly tapped up to join the Conservative Party ! I dismissed the opening “vanity gambit” quickly ( you are wasted on the Lib Dems..) and then he got onto his major pitch.
He thought the country was so screwed that it was going to take 10 years to get back on track if that and was probably beyond the means of any single government. It was all hands on deck time to help save civil society and I had a patriotic duty to help etc etc.
It all sounded like the germans were at the Channel ports. So Witan may think I’m talking the country down but the Conservatives clearly think its a national emergency if they are desperate enough to consider me!
384.And the SNP would take Scotland out of the Union and hand it keys and all on a plate to the EU instead! Yeah, true fiscal independence indeed! Get rid of the pound and take on the Euro instead, that is why I will actively fight against that downright dishonest sales pitch.
More IT nostalgia - my first IT job was on an ICL 1904 mainframe - 192K of main memory! Then at Uni I used 110 baud teletypes - you got your hard copy as you typed your code.
Anyone seen any jobs lately for an ALGOL 68 or CORAL 66 programmer?
355. “cond=(new,delete,keep)”
eh?
DISP=(NEW,DELETE,KEEP)
surely
392. “Yeah, true fiscal independence indeed! Get rid of the pound and take on the Euro instead, that is why I will actively fight against that downright dishonest sales pitch.”
Christina, call me cynical, but I think if the SNP were calling for a separate Scottish currency, you might just have a wee bit of a problem with that as well.
You may not think that France, Ireland or Greece are independent countries anymore, but I do.
I’m sure I speak for all of us on PB when I say what a pleasure it is to have ChristinaD on this site.
To have someone who can read the minds of an entire nation on a betting website must surely come in handy…?
316 “The police [ordinary ranks -- excluding senior met officiers] are are often Tory anyway.” (SallyC)
Indeed.
Which is why Ken Clarke attacking the police in the 1990s contributed to Labour’s 1997 victory. The fallacy that public sector = Labour is shared by many right wing posters here.
Madasfish said
“You remind me of the Conservative Party of the 1990s : nasty and short sighted. No wonder I and other Tory supporters stopped voting Tory.
Me, Personally I didnt vote Conservative in 97 because John Major was so bad and he wouldnt resign - the only way to get rid of him was to not vote. Ditto IDS. Absolutely pathetic.
John Major “When your back is against the wall, it is time to turn around and start fighting” - kinda sums him up. Absolute rubbish.
Ian Duncan Smith “Blah blah drone drone (monotone voice) [mumble mumble], my dad was an RAF Officer I should be leader only me drone drone I will not resign I dont care if I destroy the conservative vote I want to be the drone drone leader
398. IDS had 35% support actually by October 2003, and rising. Same as Howard. Higher than Hague. He was chopped before he could go any further.
396. I’m sure I speak for all of us on PB
Now who’s reading minds!
Shish ROFLMAO!
391 Yellow Submarine see 357.
A year ago, the PB regulars were moaning about what a dry year 2009 would be, with scarcely any elections to speak of. As for politics in general, Labour would simply continue coasting to inevitable defeat while Democrats would see nary a cloud on their horizon. Well, the year was a lot more interesting than many had imagined even if there weren’t many actual elections.
But there’s no doubt that 2010 will be exciting. With potentially wall-shattering elections scheduled in both the UK and U.S., betting opportunities should abound and new conventional wisdom should take form as old conventional wisdom goes out the window. This will be one for the history books.
401. Forgive me I did see that and should have respnded. I suspect you have money on and it deserves a more nuanced reply than I have time for now. The issue is the localist, paper based lib dem approach to campaigning makes shifting resources around harder.
386/390 tim. Why are you so intent in mugging yourself off ?
Is it self-doubt, or just mere laziness ?
None of the predictions which I have seen regarding who will win the General Election take account of a significant factor which will determine the outcome. I refer to electoral fraud. As the judge said ,we have an electoral system which would disgrace a banana republic and very little has been done to improve it. On the contrary the decision by 100 councils to defer counting the vote until the following day seems designed to extend the opportunity for fraud.Whilst all three parties are potential beneficiaries there is little doubt in my mind that Labour are far more likely to indulge in fraud.A party which has turned smearing into a fine (if disgusting) art is unlikely to have any qualms about electoral fraud. Its what they do.
So, what will the Conservatives do if they are robbed?
403. Thanks.
402. How do you see the Florida Governor and Senator races?
402 - If we’re really lucky, we might get two general elections in Britain (shadsy offers 14/1 on that, but I’m not particularly tempted - Parliament would need to be very well-hung indeed for that to happen). Mind you, if we do, there will be quite a few posters, me included, who would probably be nursing some losses from the first of those.
There are also elections in both Sweden and Hungary, among others. Ladbrokes already have a market on the Swedish election.
377.
“Cameron should think carefully before using such threats. Many Conservatives would like to throw him out.”
Particularly those conservatives running the Labour Party at the moment!
Btw Pbers, The Inn at English Harbour is THE place to spend Christmas Day.I don’t suppose there are any good odds anywhere on Baldwin Spencer’s re-election?
Tappestry said
“IDS had 35% support actually by October 2003, and rising. Same as Howard. Higher than Hague. He was chopped before he could go any further
So what. That is like Roger saying shares are up 3% and ignoring fluctuation, the trend and being unable to read the context and implications for the future.
IDS was pants. He succeeded in being more rubbish than John Major. That is saying something.
406- The Senate race in Florida should go to the GOP regardless of who comes out of the fiercely contested GOP primary since the Democrats appear settled on a weak candidate. The governor’s race could be much more competitive though, both because the Dems have a better candidate and because governor’s races tend to be less partisan-driven than congressional races. However, given that the governor’s race is an open seat contest in what should be a strong Republican year, it would be surprising to see the Dems pick this one up. Ultimately, I’d say the Republicans have about a 75-80% chance of winning the Senate race and about a 60-65% chance of winning the gubernatorial race.
[405] - I imagine that the Labour hierarchy are busy plotting their book deals, and planning for life after government. There is unlikely to be any sort of fraud at an organised and centralised level, necessary to overturn the result of the general election as a whole.
I am sure that agents of all parties are going to be alert for any odd goings on. Incidentally, does anyone know if the marked register for Glasgow North East has been lost as in Glenrothes? It strikes me that was a very similar by-election, and the survival of the register in this case should dispel the cloud of suspicion that has hung over the earlier by-election since the register was lost.
328.
“Cuba was the one country that decided to celebrate the Millenium on 31 Dec 2000.”
Presumaby Nigel Evans was there, sponsored by Conservative Friends of Castro?
407 antifrank - (I know I keep going on about this): Don’t forget Ireland, where an election is quite likely, and Australia, where it is even more likely (albeit with the result hardly in doubt).
As for Shadsy’s 14/1: That might be quite a useful hedge. I’d have thought it very likely if Cameron gets fewer than around 315 seats. One to think about.
396.I really do miss HamiltonNat, but oldnat is a very wonderful addition to the site. You on the other hand seem to be mightily exercised by me on here. My other half always reckons I should take it as a compliment when Stuart&Co resort to taking a pop at me personally, and now there is more to share the burden. What is the problem? I am just one little non SNP Scottish voice on this site, but I really do seem to get up your collective noses here more and more as the GE draws near.
411.
“the Labour hierarchy are busy plotting their book deals”
I saw the stiff-spined version of the Prezza tome today in the sales remainderd at £2.00. That brings him down to the level of Abbey Titmus.
395. Actually, I would question whether a small European country like Ireland - especially Ireland - is in any meaningful sense “independent”.
Following the banking crash, which hit Dublin so hard, and subsequent to Ireland’s submission to the will of Brussels in Lisbon 2, it seems to me that
1. Ireland’s economic policy is largely decided by the markets, and by the European Central Bank. Her currency is issued in Frankfurt, and her interest rates likewise. Tax rates (e.g. VAT) are increasingly harmonized - by Brussels.
2. Ireland is still very much an agricultural country. Agricultural policy is decided in Strasbourg and Brussels. Ireland also depends on US multinationals - the rules of their operation within the EU are decided by the EU.
3. 50-80% of Ireland’s other laws are decided in the European parliament. Most other major decisions, after Lisbon, are now primarily made in Brussels.
4. Socially and linguistically Ireland is an outlying province of the UK (and to a lesser extent the USA). Many of her newspapers are British, her people watch British TV (I visit Ireland a lot, and know this for a fact). People in Dublin or Cork talk about British TV (and English football) as if they are in Liverpool or Manchester.
I guess Dublin can still decide whether to go to war or not, but seeing as Ireland’s navy and army consist of a leather coracle staffed by two farmers with a shotgun, I’m not sure of the relevance of this.
Ireland is now a province of the UK and the EU - with a shamrock pinned on top.
407 antifrank- On current betting, ”Ung’ is a rough 3-1 shot. Given the precedents, 14-1 does NOT look like a price you would want to Lay.
Is it a bet ? Not far off.
410 Interesting. I thought the Club for Growth were targetting the current Florida Governor ion the Senate race so if it turned serious the eventual nominee would be badly beaten up by the time of the General election.
404 - URW got any views on the next Bolton manager market?
377. ken wasabi. Do not repeat the old canard about Cameron’s “betrayal” over Lisbon. The policy was not articulated well by Cameron in The Sun but was very clear as stated by Hague in his speech to Conference on 2nd October 2007 in the run up to the Election which was bottled by Brown:
“So let everyone be clear: a Conservative Government elected this autumn will hold a referendum on any EU treaty which emerges from the current negotiations. And I can tell you today that we will go further: the next Conservative Government will amend the 1972 European Communities Act, so that if any future government agrees any treaty that transfers further competences from Britain to the EU a national referendum before it could be ratified would be required by law.”
Notice -”elected this autumn” when Lisbon would still be unratified.You know that to hold a referendum on a ratified Lisbon would have had zero effect on the ConTreaty.
413 - I wouldn’t see value even at 33/1. If the general election is held as anticipated on 6 May, Parliament would sit for just a couple of months before breaking up for the summer. No matter how hung Parliament is, I can’t see any Prime Minister calling an election after just a couple of months of Parliament. More likely, David Cameron would get rather longer under his belt before going back to the country. Since that would then take you into the dark days of winter, I would expect a second election in March 2011 rather than at the end of 2010.
416 - takeing that one step further, we’re all pretty much provinces of the USA
413- Canada is always an intriguing possibility too.
And last time we had two elections in a year 1910 and 1974 the first was very early: Jan and Feb respectively!
And we dont like elections before the clocks go forward cos its dark!
396 = HAHAHHAHAH
345 TimB Sorry, my gut tells me that Philly will win this one. However, at least it’s in Dallas, so the cold should not be an issue.
BTW 5″ of fresh snow fell last night so we’re back in winter wonderland.
“does anyone know if the marked register for Glasgow North East has been lost as in Glenrothes?”
Christina-any light?
423 What about NJ Stars. Is the State Assembly elected in a different year from the Governor?
Australia are ready for it!!!!
The Coalition dont seem to have come out of the boundary changes too well!!
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2010/calculator/?swing=national&national=0&nsw=0&vic=0&qld=0&wa=0&sa=0&tas=0&act=0&nt=0&retiringfactor=1.5
263 “raising to the ground” = razing to the ground
419 tim- Give me an up to date Pricewise and I will give you a strong view…..maybe.
414 If presence on Pb.com is an indication of those on the Up then perhaps its illustrative that we have plenty of Nats (at certain hours a surfeit of them) and a few Scots Tories but a deficiency of Scots Labour and Scots Libs.
We have a few Welsh posters - Tory, Plaid and the valiant Valleyboy for Labour, are there Welsh Liberals on here?
422. Yes, to a certain extent…. However the cultural and social primacy of London, within the English-speaking world, prevents Britain becoming totally colonised, sociologically, by the USA.
In fact you could say, culturally, that there is an English speaking empire, of which the UK is one significant part, and of which there is no true capital. Culturally, is London more or less important than New York, and is New York more or less important than Los Angeles?
I’d say all three are about equal.
431 Seem to have been infected by the shade of Gordon Brown - should say Lib Dem and not Libs/Liberals in post 431.
414 - I’m sorry Christina, it’s really nothing personal. It’s just that I can’t abide liars.
Sadly, you lie every time you post. Every point you make is ‘proven’ by some fake anecdote about what the gals in your sewing club think.
I wouldn’t mind, but you just do it so often.
Stop it. Your life will be better with an absence of lies, as will this website.
419 Tim. I think there’s no chance it’ll be Owen Coyle (who appears to be favourite). I think they’ll be going for Mark Hughes.
No need for a Pricewise,tim. I have got one.
418/427- The Florida GOP primary does have the potential to become quite ugly, which does dampen Republican odds somewhat, but the Democrats’ likely candidate is an ultraliberal from a district that routinely gives Democratic presidential candidates over 80% of the vote. It’s just very tough to see the Dem winning statewide, regardless of who comes out of the GOP primary. And if either Crist or Rubio emerges from the Republican primary without having been too badly bloodied, then the likelihood of GOP victory should rise to somewhere from 80% to 90%.
The state assembly in NJ was just re-elected, and the GOP gained only one seat. The Dems still have a 47-33 majority in the state assembly even though Republican candidates collectively received more votes! The state senate plus the assembly will all be facing re-election in 2011.
perdix said
“You know that to hold a referendum on a ratified Lisbon would have had zero effect on the ConTreaty.
So what. It would give the Goverment the Mandate and the Obligation to acto on the result.
Bogey Paul Jewell. I would think Peter Reid was the bet with Coral at 4-1 and I think Alan Curbishley has to be respected on Betfair.
Very hasty reply, more to follow. Great market.
in case you haven’t noticed NEW THREAD
416 Well said SeanT. The web of international treaties, obligations and sheer interconnectedness of markets for labour, capital and goods means that sovereignty is continually being diminished for all nations, including the superpowers. Even the US has to be mindful these days as to how China will react to its budgets. And with the regulatory powers of the EC, the situation is much worse for EU countries (provinces?).
As for the notion of sovereignty as the right to declare war, for the little nations, the notion that they can declare war (except on neighbouring states which are even smaller and weaker) or even defend themselves without outside help is risible. Even the UK can no longer project power without the US.
437. That seems out of sync. Is the Assembly only elected for 2 years and the State Senate for longer? New Jersey will be interesting to watch in the long term. Its cultural fit doesn’t seem to be as Liberal as the rest of the North East and was in the 80’s the classic home of the Reagan Democrat. Add a lazy and weakened Democratic state party and it could just possibly trend the way of West Virginia. Too long term to affect Obama though as States always turn at State level before Presidential but if the GOP does make a comeback anywhere in the North East it could well be NJ as much as NH.
439 URW on Peter Reid:
“Stoke boss Tony Pulis would let Peter Reid join Bolton”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/teams/s/stoke_city/8436381.stm
414 ChristinaD
I love you too (just don’t tell Fitaloon!)
413 - Major won a historic fifth term for his party.
441 - What do you think of the possibility of Houston Mayor Bill White picking up the Texas governorship for the Dems in W’s backyard?
Just a thought. Some here talk about the dreadful waste in the public sector, which has to be cut to save the economy. Do they work in the financial industry, which has dropped us all in it BIG TIME?
Anyone who lives where I do (along the Liverpool St to Norwich line) regularly sees the results of conspicuous over-payment and consequent over-consumption on a Friday night. You don’t get that sort of behaviour in the public sector. Can’t afford it.
As an NHS pensioner, I see Dave and George planning on doing their best to save their friends at the expense of mine!