Can Mandy win the race against time?
January 3rd, 2010
Will it be PMMP after the election?
Several papers, the Telegraph amongst them, carry reports of Mandy’s magazine interview in which he hints of his desire to return to the Commons as an MP.
Yet for that to happen he needs to ditch his life peerage and that requires a current law change move to get through parliament quickly enough so he can find a seat and stand at the election
It’s only then, of course, that he could be a challenger in the Labour leadership contest that everybody is suggesting will happen this year.
It seems a tall order but when it comes to communication and political skills he’s head and shoulders above the current incumbent and all the likely contenders. If Mandy is Barclays Premiership material then the Milibands, Johnson, Balls and Harman would not even make the Coca Cola Championship - the skills gap is that wide.
That was the reason, of course, why Brown brought him back from Brussels sixteen months ago.
Is it going to happen - him becoming an MP and the going for the top job? I don’t know. I backed him at 50/1 and also have a bizarre bet at 20/1 that he’ll be Prime Minister before the new decade it out.
The short-term problems look pretty challenging and I wouldn’t put money on at current prices.
Mike Smithson
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FPT (and FPPT!)
Our Glorious Leader:
An age of aspiration can benefit everyone
The future growth of Britain depends on Labour’s continued investment in education
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2010/jan/03/gordon-brown-education-aspiration
oldnat
The SNP didn’t remain in power for long!
2 wibbler
Oh good! Another opportunity to point out that Brown (MP for Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath) has only the power to determine education in England.
And I have the privilege of being first on probably the shortest thread ever!
2 Wibbler
Rome burns, while Gordo fiddles:
… all primary schools will be required to offer a foreign language as part of the national curriculum – with new plans set out for teaching Mandarin, Arabic and Spanish.
3 Seth O. Logue
Seriously, we must manage to get together for a drink sometime!
7 oldnat
We must! I keep buying lottery tickets in the hope that I can become a neighbour. I have my eye on Skeldon House in Dalrymple. I even anticipated the win by offering it to James Kelly as a weekend retreat but he declined on the grounds of it being an unequal outcome.
Here is the link if you missed it last time.
He’ll be in his at mid-sixties at least by the time Labour are back in power, so it’s effectively senior career over for him as for so many current Labour Bigwigs - they just need to get used to the idea.
I suppose life as an MP in the HoC might be just a smidgin more satisfying for him and his ilk than a sinecure in the HoL, but he won’t be calling the shots any more. It must be awful when one day you are effectively Deputy Prime Minister and the next you are a nobody. Still not quite as crushing as having the John Lewis removal van parked outside your front door at 11am the day after the GE.
In the last thread, antifrank pointed out that far better odds were available against a June 2010 GE than those referred to by OGH.
The same applies to this thread where Mike refers to odds of 8/1 and 9/1 being available against Mandy becoming the next Labour leader, whereas odds of 12/1 are available for just such a bet from Stan James.
“It aint what you do it’s the way that you do it-that’s what it’s all about !”
From AGW to CBB, everything has a price. I am the man who knows the price of everything and the value of nothing.
Congrats on your 2nd in TOTY, Peter the Punter.
On Topic: I always thought of Peter Mandelson as a manager rather than as a player but maybe I’m now wrong.
The Dundee Labour Party have still not decided who they want as their candidate in Dundee West. Maybe Mandy has expressed an interest?
One thing is for certain though: Jim McGovern MP is not a happy chappie. I wonder what odds you would get from a bookie on a Labour MP defecting to another political party before the next GE is called?
Market Report: Very mixed messages coming from the markets which is always a pleasure.
The most dramatic move has been a Lay of the Conservatives at 1.16 for decent money and a Back of Labour at 7.6. This has in no way been reflected on the side-market where all the money has been on a resounding Tory performance and a poor Labour one.
On the absolutely key Overall Majority, the LTPs were CON Overall 1.48 NOM 3.75 and LAB 17.0.
With Rod Crosby getting let loose yesterday, the money for NOM was fairly predictable and it is noteworthy that tim is now on board Spaceship Crosby.
What we need is for Spaceship VIPA to strike back or we will all be wiped out.
Ladbrokes - Dundee West (incumbent: Jim McGovern MP, Lab)
SNP 2/5
Lab 7/4
Con 100/1
LD 100/1
4 - oldnat: oh no you don’t!
That honour is mine, thanks to this thread:
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2008/08/09/does-this-have-wider-implications/
Only 7 comments, 5 by me, in 75 minutes: I gave up waiting for people to care and published a second article!
Congratulations on your TOTY,Morus and on defeating The Evil Tower axis.
Sort of on topic: I duly got matched for my £153 Back of Brown/Cameron for Party Leaders Next GE at 1.29 but not the 1.38 for Cameron Next PM. Maybe Polly likes a bet.
On topic, the quote which Mike is describing as “[Mandelson] hints at his desire to return to the Commons as an MP” appears to be this:
“Apart from my lack of ambition, there is something else standing in the way, quite a big thing. The life peerage. You can’t divest yourself from it.”
Hard to be sure without seeing the Esquire article, but it looks like someone said, “Will you become an MP again?”, Mandelson said, “I don’t want to, and I couldn’t even if I did” and the sub-editor at the Telegraph decided to describe that as: “Peter Mandelson has dropped the strongest hint yet that he would like to drop his life peerage and return to the House of Commons.”
Don’t believe everything you read in the newspapers. But more importantly, don’t believe anything you read in newspaper headlines.
9. Peter from Putney
Bookies’ best prices - Next Labour Leader
David Miliband 4/1 VC
Alan Johnson 9/2 Lad
E Miliband 11/2 SJ
Harriet Harman 12/1 SJ
Peter Mandelson 12/1 SJ
James Purnell 16/1 SJ
Jon Cruddas 20/1 SJ
Ed Balls 22/1 VC
A Burnham 25/1 Lad VC
Jack Straw 25/1 SJ
Alistair Darling 25/1 Lad
Yvette Cooper 33/1 Lad VC
John Denham 33/1 SJ
Hilary Benn 40/1 SJ
Sean Woodward 50/1 Lad
Peter Hain 66/1 Lad
John McDonnell 66/1 Lad VC
Douglas Alexander 66/1 Lad
Jim Murphy 66/1 Lad
Liam Byrne 66/1 Lad
More snippets from Tory internal polling, but NOT (note) voting intention figures!! I wonder why not?
A glimpse into the post-election atmosphere north of the border: note the words of the “Labour spokesperson” at the foot of the article. This message will be repeated ad infinitum in Scotland in the coming months -> “we have not forgotten” + “the Tories haven’t changed”.
‘Scots Tories set to gain new seats’
http://scotlandonsunday.scotsman.com/politics/Scots-Tories-set-to-gain.5952075.jp
So, “Cameron was backed over Gordon Brown as the better leader, by 54 per cent to 46 per cent” was he? Well, quite frankly, that is nowhere near enough!! Remember, these are the 11 most Tory seats in Scotland, but even here Brown is nearly on the same score as Cameron. Cameron really ought to be clearly in the lead in these seats if the Tories are going to get more than a handful of Scottish seats.
You can get 18.5 for Mandelson Next Labour Leader on Betfair, Stuart.
Amazing looking at the odds Stuart Dickson posted to see Mandelson at the same price as Harriet Harman.
Mandelson: Disliked by large parts of the membership, probably doesn’t want to do it, not an MP, law prevents him from becoming one.
Harman: An MP with a massive great thumping majority, already the deputy so she’d have a good claim if something happened to Brown, clear track record of winning election by the Labour membership, obviously ambitious, the only woman among the top contenders.
Am I missing something?
20 Edmund in Tokyo
It’s a good point.
I suppose the main argument in Mandy’s failure is that he has at least the reputation of being managerially competent (whether it is true or not is a separate issue) whereas Harman clearly has no grasp of detail.
Re my post at 21
aargh failure=favour
re 19. But big deal URW. Yes there’s £58 at 18 or 18.5 available on Betfair on Mandy - but when those have gone you are down 9.2 or 8.2/1 in real money.
I loathe Betfair because the site is so slow and user unfriendly and when you finally get to the market you want you find there’s only tuppence available.
So far on Mandy the total amount that’s been traded is £787. Pathetic. The whole Labour leader market has yet to top £7,000.
When I want a bet I want to bet. Betfair sometimes provides the opportunity for reasonable but not usually.
Thus on the June election Betfair is at 9/1 and has just £68 available at that price. At the same time Ladbrokes gave me £200 at 14/1.
20. Edmund - “Am I missing something?”
Yes. HH is totally unelectable as PM.
She may appeal to a certain type of Labourite and trade unionist, but she has zilch appeal to The Centre. It is impossible to win a UK GE without winning The Centre (aka Middle England). Enough Labour members realise this elementary fact to prevent HH becoming next leader.
If I am wrong, and HH does become leader, then the Labour membership needs a full frontal lobotomy.
re 23. And you try to negotiate yourself round Betfair constituency markets. It’s all done on regions which don’t make sense. And when you finally find the market there’s noting available. It is utter crap. I can’t be arsed.
As we are talking about The Rt Hon The Lord Mandelson, this article caught my eye:
‘SNP tells Brown to cut peers in cabinet’
http://scotlandonsunday.scotsman.com/politics/SNP-tells-Brown-to-cut.5952073.jp
OGH. The other day I asked a leading internet firm for 200-100, 300-60 and 240-80 on three different Seat Bands.
The maximum I was offered on the three were bets to win £5. To add insult to injury, all three prices shortened !
At least on Betfair you do get the advertised price most of the time…..if you are a good navigator.
Betfair has its huge faults but it also has its compensations.
Summary of Betfair.
Category A: ‘Most Seats’ and ‘Overall Majority’. Both totally superior to Bookmakers odds and if you can beat any of the Betfair prices with a bookie at any time, my advice is to have a bet, whatever it is.
Category B: ‘Party Leaders next GE’ and ‘Next Prime Minister’. Not fantastic but enough action to keep me occupied.You can’t bet thousands but you can bet hundreds.
Category C: Party Line and Party Seat Bands: Small but interesting and very informative. Probably of limited interest to most but well worth the occasional visit.
Category Z: The Constituency Markets might as well not exist.There has been a tiny amount of activity at Watford and Pavilion and mostly ‘inspired’ by goodself.
Avoid !
what’s happened to Alan Watkins. Has the Indy ditched him?
No. Mandy craves power and influence above anything else. I can’t see him taking over to spend 4 years in opposition. He would probably only take over in a Wilson situation.
So David Cameron’s new slogan is ‘The Year For Change’. That must have taken a junior copywriter all of ten minutes.
30 - My view exactly. I see more chance of Lord Mandelson defecting to the Conservatives than of him attempting to become Leader of the Opposition by such a circuitous route.
I do hope that ChristinaD reconsiders her decision to stop posting. I profited from her views as recently as last night. I have always found her charming and insightful, and her status as an unapologetic Scots Tory was an enhancement to the site.
20/24 Harman is unelectable, she just wanders through life accusing anyone she doesn’t like of being sexist, racist, ageist, homophobic, badgerist, Woganphobic… She would also (logically) bar Labour from class war campaigns as she is herself a member of the nobility. Of course none of this bars her from being the next Labour leader!
Her behaviour is rather similar to that of a certain Mr G Brown esq, insteading of trying to run her department she seems to spend all her time positioning herself for the top job.
33- why did she quit?
Those looking for ways to back Peter Mandelson as next Labour leader might also consider Sporting Index. With a price of 1-2 on the Next Labour Leader market, buying Peter Mandelson translates into an effective price of 23/2, not quite as good as the Stan James price but with the advantage that you don’t actually have to stump up the readies in advance. Anyone who already has a SPIN account, doesn’t have a Stan James account and who wants to back Peter Mandelson might think this a worthwhile way of doing so. I imagine that is quite a select group.
Mandy as PM! wouldn’t that make life interesting, never a dull moment thats for sure.
The comment of Edmund in Tokyo, ‘he’s disliked by large parts of the membership’ well what better endorsment.
Ken’s, ‘Tory Tax Bombshell’ will probably get some coverage today. Standby for VAT up to 25% if Tories get in etc. The right’s reaction will be interesting as they want Tax cuts followed by a sharp reduction in public spending: watch this space.
29-wondering the same thing.Usually he has his New Year’s Almanac this edition-a spoof political Old Moore.He is “getting on” in age so it may be a bout of ill health.If so,I hope he gets well soon.He’s the only reason left to read the Sindy.
37- speaking for myself I think an increase in VAT is a reasonable idea, if the cut cost £12.5bn then surely an increase would raise a similar amount, and it wouldn’t hurt as much as, say, an increase in income tax. It would be difficult for Labour to oppose a tax increase in place of a public spending cut and the Lib Dems, who are pledged to “savage” cuts can’t possibly oppose it.
There are of course downsides, and I would prefer to avoid tax rises, but given the state our finances are in we are faced with a choice between a number of unpalatable alternatives.
37 “The right’s reaction will be interesting as they want Tax cuts followed by a sharp reduction in public spending”
I haven’t heard anyone arguing for that, the finances are too bad. It would have to be the other way round.
The good thing about a VAT increase is that it wouldn’t have the same effect on enterprise as taxes on income. It is also not as regressive as often thought, as many of the things that poorer people spend most of their money on are either zero rated (food, childrens clothes) or carry a special, low, rate (gas & electric).
23. Mike, you do know Coral’s have a June election at 20/1, (or at least they did yesterday). Do you not visit oddschecker before making bets? Would have saved you £57 on your bet yesterday
If Mandy is looking to become a MP again and looking to become PM/Labour leader then it does rule him out from been the one who to tell Gordon Brown his time is up.
I always got the feeling that Mandy prefered to be the power behind the king rather than the king himself.
37 Remember, Darling wanted to increase VAT. The malign influence of Ed Balls on the nation’s finances prevented it - for purely party political ends. As the patient loses blood all over the operating table, the surgeon is watching the minutes tick away to ensure that he clocks off before having to scrub up…
If we had a government that was governing in the national interest, then we would already have VAT at 20% - and quite possibly going higher.
39
There are of course downsides! could be an understatement, but let rightwing commentator Alex Singleton answer.
Even though I’m a Margaret Thatcher-worshipping libertarian, sometimes Tory policies – even those from the Iron Lady herself – make my blood boil. There is one particular Tory policy, followed by each of the last three Tory prime ministers, that is totally demented. I’m talking about raising VAT. Today, the day when Gordon Brown copies that Tory policy and raises VAT, I feel embarrassed to admit that I vote Tory.
Ted Heath introduced VAT in 1973 as part of his deal to join the European Economic Community. Heath was never a real Conservative, anyway, so I can put that to one side. But why Margaret Thatcher and John Major both raised VAT is barely explicable. While Thatcher understood the need to cut wasteful state spending from day one, she didn’t truly become a Thatcherite on tax until Ronald Reagan came to power and she ditched Geoffrey Howe for the brilliant Nigel Lawson. The delay to a proper tax-cutting programme unnecessarily deepened the pain of the very necessary economic restructuring.
Will David Cameron follow his predecessors’ lead and raise VAT to 20 per cent? I hope not, because it is an immoral tax, disproportionately hitting those on low incomes. We expect Gordon Brown to hurt the poor, because that is what he has always done. But for a Tory leader who has invested so much into refocusing the party on “social justice”, that would be unforgivable.
‘Labour planned to let Scots control foreign policy’
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/scotland/article6973942.ece
40
Or carry a special low rate on gas and electricity! Ah! wonder why, after all it was Tory policy to increase it to the full 17.5%, in two tranches 8% then 17.5%, they raised to 8% but failed to get the 17.5% approved by parliament. Labour reduced it to 5% when elected, the lowest rate allowed after imposition.
If it was Tory policy then, (denied by JM in ‘92) then whats to say it couldn’t be re-imposed as a so called, ‘Green Tax’ by a future Tory government.
Gordo looking distinctinvely lacking gorm on Marr during the pre-interview camera shots.
Irritatingly, he has a very nice deep regal blue tie on, very similar to my favourite tie.
Good Morning New Year Voters For Nick Palmer Worldwide
Meanwhile …. Belated greetings to worldwide PBers on the New Year !! …. I’ve just about surfaced for duty.
Meanwhile II …. Toby Helm in the ‘Observer’ says the blogs and tweets will win the election :
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2010/jan/03/labour-tory-internet-campaigns
43- I’ve never heard of the guy, don’t care about his opinion and I’m not a Thatcherite. I wouldn’t chose to increase VAT in normal circumstances, but in current conditions it is definitely one of the least bad alternatives. I don’t really see what relevance Margaret Thatcher has here, except in as much as she had to fix the broken economy left to her by the Labour government… oh, I see your point!
It was rather cruel of Andrew Marr to tell only one of his guests that the first programme of the New Year was fancy dress with a “come as a Caliph” theme…
47- then he’s an idiot!
no election has ever been won on the web, this one won’t be either!
I was doing my washing mountain after the new year break, looked up and there it was reviewing the papers on the Andrew Marr programme.
JackW’s kilt is there too.
What on earth is that crazy woman on Marr wearing? Who is she?
40 Nothing! It is a crap tax, far too complex to administer, and the European Union, in my view, should not be able to mandate the taxes that member countries levy on their citizens.
But we have it, and it’s as reasonable to use VAT to raise revenue as any other tax. In fact, I expect it is probably easier to increase & decrease when temporary increases in revenue are needed, than other taxes such as income tax, where tinkering can cause all sorts of marginal tax rate problems.
48
Bone up.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alex_Singleton
Ahem this is a political site, you may be find yourself taken outside of your comfort zone, (I have) I suggest you spend sometime preparing yourself.
On the VAT increase thing, I’m not an expert in this stuff so I’m not going to pretend to know whether this is a sensible idea or not, but the parallels with Japan in the late ’90s seem pretty striking.
“Japan’s biggest policy mistake came in 1997 when the government raised its consumption tax from 3 to 5 percent. The aim was to help compensate for the large run-up in Japanese debt that resulted from the series of unproductive fiscal stimulus packages expended largely on wasteful public works projects. The combination of higher consumption taxes, the continued fall in land prices that persisted in preventing Japan’s banks from operating as financial intermediaries because of their heavy exposure to real estate losses, and a rapid return to deflation in 1998 resulted in a virtual collapse of the Japanese economy.”
http://www.aei.org/outlook/27568
Meanwhile III …. The ‘IoS’ looks at he prospect of another Wyre Valley contest in Harrow East :
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/top-surgeon-to-take-on-labour-mp-over-hospitals-future-1855939.html
……………………………………
51 CtD. My kilts are firmly in places you will never have access to !!
56 Looked like evidence of an interesting night out to me. Someone should tell her.
48
Of course, (in case you didn’t know) the chancellor at the time was one Ken something-or-the-other anyway its all here.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/major-faces-fresh-revolt-on-fuel-vat-1439860.html
Could history be about to repeat itself?
Harriet Harman writes in the People
http://www.people.co.uk/news/tm_headline=tories-offer-change-the-nation-can-not-afford%26method=full%26objectid=21938305%26siteid=93463-name_page.html?
Re Peter Kellner’s unsuitability to run YouGov because he has Labour connections (previous two threads-usual posters).
Shortly before the 2005 election when Stephen Shakespeare (Tory activist and Jeffrey Archer’s PR man) was the face of Yougov they ran a poll one of whose questions was ‘Is Sandra Howard more likely to make you vote Conservative or Cherie Blair more likely to make you vote Labour’
I penned an email to Yougov asking what was behind this seemingly distasteful and sexist question. I got a delightful reply from Stephen Shakespeare saying that Yougov were just servants of their clients and if their client (The Mail) wanted to ask such a question (which he agreed breached good taste) there was little they could do.
(He also pointed out that the public showed what they thought of the question by overwhelmingly saying neither wife would make any difference).
Problem is if you look around, what taxes are good to raise. Income Tax/NI makes people feel poorer, Corporation Tax makes companies poor and slows reinvestment, VAT makes everything more expensive. Both IHT and Capital Gains are either avoidable or simply won’t raise much.
On topic… the fact that Mandelson might even think about ditching the supposed life appointment to the Lords and come back to the Commons is an indictment of the bankruptcy of the current system. Similarly Cathy Ashton pretending she is not currently a member of the Lords so she can be an EU apparatchik (I believe she has taken “leave of absence”).
One easy step would be to allow Ministers who are not members of Parliament the ability to speak at the Bar of the House, and to be summoned & questioned by Parliament. (Presumably this could happen anyway - non-MPs are required to attend Select Committees all the time, so I expect this could happen when the house is sitting as a Committee of the Whole House).
But what we desperately need is an upper house where the executive cannot fix the membership.
Fraser Nelson’s GE prediction: “It will be called in May, and people voting against Gordon Brown will deliver the biggest pro-Tory swing in postwar history. There is (I’d say) a one-in-ten chance that Gordo will stand down due to ‘ill health.’ If he doesn’t: A Tory majority of about 45 seats.”
63 Fraser Nelson calls it for the Tories. Amazing News!
Meanwhile IV …. The ‘Sunday Times’ reports that love bombing the Lib Dems isn’t a one way Tory process as Lord Adonis clasps the yellow peril to his breast :
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6974053.ece
Nearly as amazing as RodC calling it a hung parliament.
Nearly as amazing as RodC calling it a hung parliament.
63
Strange! you seem to have missed this:-
IF you have nothing to say, say nothing, should have been David Cameron’s New Year’s resolution.
His speech yesterday was vapid nonsense. Words like “change” and “hope,” repeated over and over again. All that worked for Obama’s America. But Britain wants some beef. And Cam’s speech had as much beef as a vegan sandwich.
“We recognise the NHS’s special place in our society so we will not cut it,” he said. Really? What does this say about education and the military, both of whose budgets will be cut?
“We need to build an enterprise economy,” he says. So why chase entrepreneurs away with a pointless 50p tax? “A new high-speed rail network” he promises. Paid for by whom? Doesn’t he realise that the nation is flat broke? “We have been clear about where some of the cuts will come from.” You could have fooled me. He will this year inherit a government with an £182 BILLION over-spend. His cuts so far amount to a paltry £7BILLION.
He ominously warns about “higher debts… higher taxes, higher interest rates” under Labour. I will eat every copy of this newspaper if we don’t have all three under the Tories. The irony is that Cameron DOES have serious plans, as this newspaper discloses today. But none were mentioned.
One of Cam’s most stinging criticisms of Gordon Brown is that he “takes the voters for fools”.
He’d better be very, very careful that he doesn’t do the same.
Let me help you, its in the NoW.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>BETTING POST<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<,
Coral’s have the Greens 11/8 to win a seat in 2010, just had £300.
Works out at a 7% return if you fully hedge on the Tories and Labour in Brighton Pavillion, with the added bonus that the Greens might win a seat elsewhere.
There are only 2 suitable places I can think of for Mandelson.
the first is a jail cell.
the second is the Australian outback or wherever it is they make “I’m a Celebrity Get Me Out of Here”, an ideal location for a washed up has been. Mandelson isn’t fit to match his grandfather’s small toe.
33. Antifrank. If you profited from one of Christina’s tips I think I can probably take over her tipping duties.
Tories to win everything.
(But I like her too. An Aberdonian Tory has to plough a pretty lonely furrow so they’re entitled to be a bit over-sensitive)
55.. there is a very big difference. Japan had a huge savings surplus and current account surplus. Domestic comsumption was too low already. In the UK things are the other way round, in spades.
Hence a consumption tax wouldn’t have the same negative effect.
Is his jacket too small?
73: Isn’t it always? His suits always look ill-fitting
sorry for the double post!
Soft going so far from Marr. Questions on security are just easy to deal with.
71. Roger - “Tories to win everything.”
Sad but true.
- “… a bit over-sensitive.”
Errr… you are now leading in the PB ‘Understatement of the Decade’ contest.
45 Coldstone
By ‘green tax’ on electricity, I take it you’re referring to Labour’s ‘renewables obligation’:
“…under which the wind industry receives a hidden subsidy of nearly £1 billion a year (eventually due to rise to a staggering £32 billion a year), paid by all of us through higher electricity bills. This compels the electricity companies to buy all the power generated from wind at around twice the normal market price.”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1566091/Christopher-Bookers-notebook.html
Did anyone see Gordons inane grin first thing?, very entertaining
Gordon now wasting more money on pointless scanners.
72
So there’s no chance of this sort of thing happening then?
JOHN MAJOR’S fragile 14-seat majority may be at risk again next week, with up to a dozen Tory backbenchers threatening to join Labour in an attempt halt the doubling of VAT on fuel.
The second stage in the imposition of VAT, taking it to the full 17.5 per cent rate from April, was announced in last year’s Budget. Government business managers had insisted that there could be no parliamentary vote this year. But Labour Party tacticians have found a way round the block, allowing Gordon Brown, the Shadow Chancellor, to table a procedural motion that could force a vote.
Two Tory MPs confirmed yesterday that they would not support the Government in any such vote. Phil Gallie, MP for Ayr, said: “I shall not be supporting the Government in the lobbies on imposing the full 17.5 per cent.” Sir Nicholas Fairbairn, MP for Perth and Kinross, last night promised to support “any measure that stops this increase”. Other opponents of the VAT on fuel include William Powell (Corby), Nicholas Winterton (Macclesfield), Ann Winterton (Congleton), Richard Shepherd (Aldridge Brownhills), William Cash (Stafford), Teresa Gorman (Billericay), Paul Marland (Gloucestershire West) and Michael Lord (Suffolk Central).
“It is morally wrong that elderly people who have no opportunity of adjusting their income to take account of additional taxation should be treated in this way,” Mr Winterton said. He was “implacably opposed” to the fuel tax rise and, if MPs were allowed to vote, he would restate his hostility.
Tory MPs campaigning for pensioners said they too may vote against the Government if the second stage of compensation for VAT on fuel is not generous enough.
Everyone will just accept it, there’ll be no protests, no revolts, (particularly if IHT is reduced) it’ll be plain sailing?
Is his short collar button undone?
It’s a fairly decent interview for Gordo so far.
Apparently Gordon is going to share info on Iran with the people, that will be first then.
Brown threatening Iran. I am sure Ahmadinejad is quaking.
81 Mike is the new Trinny.
Isn’t arcadia the parent company of BHS or something.
81 His shirt does look pretty tight.
And his Trousers! I do not need to see part of his hairy legs!
(sorry for the superfical here)
82: Foriegn policy questions is always easy. Marr’s giving him a very soft time at the moment.
He’s just said “the election isn’t going to be a referendum on us”!!!!!
Quite right to Gordon on war cabinet, once you are given the boot you should certainly get no say in anything if possible.
It would be interesting to see the viewing figures for Marr’s interviews with the respective leaders.
Gordon telling porkies about manufacturing. shocker!!
Brown dogding that question. You can see the ‘Does not compute’ flash up.
I know I should continue, but I just find Gordon unwatchable.
*TV off*
90 Well done, you’ve invented a new low threshold for the word interesting.
At least Gordon keeps saying I am sorry.
After facing down the snarling teeth and vicious questioning of Fearless Andrew Marr the PM is then braving the dangerous lions den of R5 and Kate the Killer Silverton.
Will Brave Sir Gordon survive?
90. The audience for Marr is small at the best of times.
Gordon telling porkies about the deficit, marr just looking incredulous.
He’s starting to fall apart now. The tax plans in the budget go no where near the deficit cutting needed as set out.
Gordon saying IFS are lying. Dear oh dear.
Oh dear… he’s on very dodgy territory now.
Apparently it is not appropriate to review spending, now.
54- he’s a journalist, and I disagree with him.
Ahem, this is a political site and if you criticise you may occasionally be asked what you would do differently, so, how would you close the budget deficit then? “Savage” spending cuts?
In fairness, Brown’s presentation is very much improved - he still bristles at any challenge but he controls it much better.
However, he still persists with the Labour tactic from previous elections “Only our spending plans are correct. if you spend a penny more or a penny less the whole economy will collapse”.
And he is asserting more than ever that his Government has no responsibility for our travails, but deserves credit for a perfect recovery.
About the Tories “They made the wrong judgement on everything” Gordon is a political genius.
There will be a budget this spring if it is at the right time.
Mike Smithson said: “…and also have a bizarre bet at 20/1 that he’ll be Prime Minister before the new decade it out.”
Check exactly what the meaning of “decade” is in your bet Mike. Decades start in years ending in 1 and end in year that are multiples of 10. This decade ends on 31st Dec 2010. The next one starts on 1st Jan 2011.
So if the correct definition of a calendar decade is correct then you will win your bet if Mandelson does not make PM this year, but from 2011 to 2020 and that seems like a good bet to me. On the other hand if the Bookies say they mean Dec 2010 your bet looks less safe.
Just be clear what they mean by such loose terminology.
Brown is cracking up.
Key point in this is that Labour are trying to spike the Tories guns on optimism - tactically the right thing to do
OT, Tories apparently offering a million pounds to someone who can develop a website which can “harness the wisdom of the crowd so that the public can collaborate to improve government policy“.
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2009/12/31/tories_crowdsourcing_million_pound_prize/
Mike and Robert should be eligible for this. Tell them you’ve built a site which leverages prediction markets and the input of wide range of cross-party blue-sky helicopter thinkers to develop and analyse a spectrum of policy options, personnel strategies and risk portfolios.
He is sounding much more fluid than usual. The rhetoric is quite good.
re Bob savage spending cuts? Absolutely yes
110- I think it’s a daft idea personally. If people want to be involved in politics they can join a party, or run for the council, or parliament, or write to their MP/councillor. I don’t hold with all this talk of disenfranchised voters either. Safe seats are created by the electorate not by politicians.
“Is his short collar button undone?”
“His shirt does look pretty tight”.
“Did anyone see Gordons inane grin first thing?”,
“His suits always look ill-fitting”
“Is his jacket too small?”
I wonder whether the Tory posters preoccupation with trivia could just be a reflection of the vacuousness of their party leader?
The “referendum” thing is obviously deliberate, he’s said it three times.
It is very dangerous territory. He doesn’t want to take responsibility for his decisions, etc.
Gordon panicked if it is seen as a referrendum on Expenses or Economy. That is basically admitting that the economy is Labour’s fault(which it is) and that Labour are the most corrupt party(which they are).
Policies on civil liberties not dissimilar to the Liberal Democrats!!!
apparently his policies on civil liberties are the same as the lib dems.
112- I agree that careful spending cuts are neccessary, but that tax rises shouldn’t be ruled out. Clegg was stupid to boast about “savage spending cuts”. It now means that they can’t oppose a Tory government cutting spending which leaves that ground to Labour. Again the Lib Dems will be positioned against the opposition, not the government
Revealing playing fields smirk. Brown really loves his class war.
Brown love-bombing the yellow peril!
LOL. He tries to get up at the end before the credits have stopped rolling.
overall stange giggling delusional buffoon. So nothing new then.
Gosh! everyone loves the Libdems don’t they! Gordon loves ‘em, Dave loves ‘em, makes you wonder what their private polling is telling them: hung parliament perhaps.
I only saw the last 5 mins, but I think it’s important to remember that whilst Brown is more confident and coherent now, he’s also still odious as hell.
114: Um Roger…that was started off by Mike=non tory. Who made at least two of those points.
114 Roger, OGH is a Tory?
114
Wonder what they’d be saying if he had a ’shavenhead’
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1240181/Setback-Cameron-senior-Tories-revolt-shaven-headed-image-supremo-Steve-Hilton.html
126 Slack. More like Mike=hey nonny nonny !!
Can someone please give me some evidence of the amazing political skills Peter Mandelson supposedly has?
Since his return to the government I’ve seen no evidence of them. Labour’s message (sic) has continued to be crude, outdated and ineffectual. And his personal performances have been nothing special. It seems to me he is trading entirely off his reputation of a decade ago.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/Afghanistan/article6973793.ece
Fascinating article about Rory the Tory. I think, if he gets in this time round, he’ll step down at the following election from boredom. I hope I’m wrong though. He’d be a real asset to Parliament.
He seemed very huffed at the end. Tried to get out of his seat like a flash and unwilling to chat for the cameras. It is difficult to see why. For most of the interview Marr was deferential.
Only on the economy was he insolent enough to pursue the Prime Minister at all then and got a very very defensive reaction.
130- he is a man of average height in a parliament of pygmies.
To me the issue with Brown is how all these Brownies that he comes out with will get picked apart in an intensive campaign. Marr has never been philospically interested in taking a Labour politician apart. In a GE and the Leader’s debate Brown will be much more vulnerable.
“We have doubled our investment in science….” Reality is next year they plan to cut the science budget.
Wpderful how the NoW has become a major source of political information.
http://www.newsoftheworld.co.uk/news/659469/Tories-plan-massive-CUTS-to-reboot-Britain.html
I see a hike in the tax on cider is on the list, well all those Libdems in the SW can heave a sigh of relief they’re safe.
“he is a man of average height”
Yeah, we’ve all been governors of large provinces by the age of 30……Come off it. He’s had a remarkable career to date.
Bob @113, to be fair to the Tories on this, although it’s easy to take the piss out of - see http://wisdomofcameron.com/ - it’s not hard to see someone coming up with a website that would save the country over a million pounds, which they wouldn’t have come up with without the prize.
Just pulling something out of my bum, if you built a site that was really good at allowing public-sector whistle-blowers to anonymously report waste (probably quite easy), and collate and filter that information in a useful way (very hard, and requires some very clever design decisions), that could easily save the taxpayer billions of pounds.
This is the kind of thing a small team or an individual hacker could build in a matter of weeks if they could figure out the right way to do it. But if the government tried to design and commission it themselves, it would end up costing them millions and still not work properly. Better for the government just to say to everyone, “Build what you like the way you think best, and if it works and it’s useful, we’ll buy you a yacht.”
And if nobody builds anything worth the money, the government gets to keep the prize.
new fred…
106.
“106.There will be a budget this spring if it is at the right time.”
Any idea what that means?
5 more years?
Look Andrew, Ive steered the country through good and bad times, and after hitting that iceberg that was nothing to do with me, I’m now organising the lifeboats in an extreemly efficient fashion, and if you don’t mind me saying so, I think I deserve credit from you over this?
Look this election is not about my captaincy of the Titanic it’s about real choices and whether you want to risk a an Etonian comet from space destroying your lifesaving raft
The age of austerity.
We are all in this together.
Savage cuts in public spending.
Must have gone down well in the focus groups.
33. Good morning all. I have just picked up the news that ChristinaD has said she won’t post here any more. I know I’m a newcomer here, but in a short time I’ve learnt that Christina is one of the invaluable posters here. Informed, insightful and warm quite apart from being one of the few women on this site. It’s a disaster for her to be driven away. If you’re reading Christina please reconsider. I second antifrank’s sentiments entirely.
142 Seconded! Thirded even!
Christina = rocks
Christina doubters = doodoo heads
Brown’s interview was a deligtful whimsy with flights of fancy aplenty.
Brown is becoming Aristophelian, Britain = Cloudcuckoobury
funny that the Tory piranhas are turning on Steve Hilton the man who single handedly turned a very average account director at a less than top notch TV company into a potential prime minister.
Yesterday I said the Tory Party was a party ‘with Margaret Thatcher’s bosom at it’s core’. I originally wrote ‘with Margaret thatcher’s bosom at its heart’. I realized before posting that ‘Thatcher’ ‘Tory’ and ‘heart’ in the same sentence would look like an oxymoron.
68 —He ominously warns about “higher debts… higher taxes, higher interest rates” under Labour. I will eat every copy of this newspaper if we don’t have all three under the Tories.
Coldstone
it is without any doubt whatsoever we will as you say but as previously in 1979 this will be as a DIRECT result of the inept Labour party who always seem to end there term of power in huge debt and financial crisis ready for the Tories to sort out (again!!)and then get the blame as you have already started to do. I said as Blair walked into No 10 “this will all end in tears it always does with Labour governments”. 2010 = QED
This time though Labours failure has surpassed even my expectations of guaranteed disaster.
If the people vote Labour back into power or even vote UKIP or any of the others (Understandable but in my view a totally wasted vote as they themselves cannot beat Brown) and then consequently Brown gets back in for another 5 years either by default or there is a hung parliament the people of this country then deserve everything in bucket fulls that they will surely get. In my view Scotland should be cut loose because like the Labour member who stated the Scots would ‘not forget what the Tories did to Scotland’ in comparison now to what they have done to England Wales, NI and ironically even more so in Scotland the previous administration does not even register on the screw up scale compared to this Labour Government. The blame is always passed onto the Tories of course because they always support Labour up and they are never ever wrong there and even if the Tories did everything right they still would have held the same views.
As one voter said at Glasgow East ‘I’m glad Labour won here again as maybe we can get some investment because the place is falling apart’ someone should have pointed out to the poor deluded man that the seat has been solid Labour for 50 odd years but the fact they were worse off did not seem to register with him even though Labour have also been the government for the last 12 years. He was still putting the blame on Thatcher. Some people are just beyond help and reason.
44. I didn’t follow the whole thing. But it started with a deeply unpleasant attack by someone called Glesganat (?) followed up by a particularly brusing exchange with James Kelly rounded off by a kicking from the Timbot/Gabble gang. It all went too far and Christina is owed a big apology.
145. That should have been 144 and I was responding to JackW, but his post seems to have mysteriously disappeared.
145 PollyB
It was a brusing exchange with James Kelly but fair.
Surely this is to be expected.
funny how roger sees all politics through the prism of the shallow world he inhabits. He cannot forgive Cameron for escaping the world of television and becoming a major political leader and he cannot forgive Joanna Lumley for rising above the world of voice-overs and leading a campaign that has done more for a group of working class people than he could ever imagine.
146. Drat - posted on the wrong thread! At least that explains the disappearance of JackW’s post and ghostbusters don’t need to be called in.
Mandy is at his best worming away under the stone. In the cold light of day he is unimpressive.