How many of these will be MPs after the election?
January 13th, 2010
What are the chances on the Ladbrokes Indy market?
In an excellent review of the Welsh marginals on PB2 Meurig rather ducked out of a prediction for Blaenau Gwent - what was previously Labour strongest seat in Wales that was lost, of course, after the all-women short-list row in 2005 and then held onto by independent Dai Davies in the by election a year later.
This is a pity because it could be key in trying to figure out the Ladbrokes market on the number of Independent MPs who will be elected. This is defined as “candidates not representing Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats, SNP or PC. Speaker and N.I.”
The pricing is 5/4 0-2 seats; 6/4 3-5 seats; 11/4 six or more seats.
At the last election there were three of them - George Galloway; Richard Taylor in Wyre Forest as well as Dai Davies - all of whom look set to have tough fighgts. The main parties are standing in Wyre Valley, Galloway has faced boundary changes in east London and is now candidate in Poplar while Blaenau Gwent voters might revert to their traditional allegiance.
If any do hold on could they be joined by one or possibly two Green MPs, Nigel Farage who is fighting John Bercow in Buckingham and, of course, Nick Griffin who is flying the flag for the BNP in Barking.
Caroline Lucas is starting to look good in Brighton Pavillion while UKIP must be in with a shout especially as his opponent’s wife is doing the incumbent no favours. In Barking I think we’ll see tactical voting for the party that looks most able to stop the BNP.
On top of the six that we’ve highlighted there is also the possibility of other indies making it like former “I’m a Celebrity - Get me Out of Here” contestant, Esther Rantzen.
My view is that at the most it will be Lucas and one other. I’ve got a three figure bet on the 0-2 seat option.
Mike Smithson
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Some of them will I hope
The chap from BG, seems good.
Personally I’d love to see Caroline Lucas win, purely, as it might see some long term seepage from the Lib Dems to the Green.
Financially, I’d love to see Mr Farage win too.
I think Dr Taylor will not be back, the Lib Dems are fielding a candidate there for the first time since 1997, which will hand the seat to the Tories
OT sorry but this was really funny - Sinitta [sp?] just said it was ‘really cool’ that Cameron watched her TV programme.
Bet Dick Bacon didn’t expect that
George Galloway, I hope, gets thrashed.
Nick Griffin needs to win. If only so that every time he appears on tv it’ll be with the caption: “Nick Griffin MP - Barking.”
I agree with Mike, and I went for the 0-2 option when the market first appeared.
I hope Farage wins - he’s the sort of ‘character’ that we need more of, and as a by-product Gollum gets it
Can’t see Saddam Hussein winning a seat this time round.
5. he may well do, but until he is seen leaving thrashers at 2 in the morning he safe.
Although he might feature in a hung parliament.
New independent joins the race:
1300 In other political news from the Press Association - a witch has announced he intends to enter the cauldron of politics and stand for Parliament at the general election. “Magus Lynius Shadee, who calls himself the King of All Witches, hopes to become Cambridge’s next MP” the news agency says - he’ll stand as an independent.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8456474.stm
0-2 looks the likely winner here, I agree totally.
9 - He might, I think he’s standing in Northern Ireland.
I’d think either 0-2 or 3-5, with 6+ very unlikely. I suppose the risk is some further scandal on the scale of the expenses affair that terminally puts vast numbers of voters off all the established parties. It’s hard to see any gains not identified by Mike, but “I’m not from a main party” may well have an appeal for the three sitting MPs. What about the MP who defected to UKIP (temporarily forgotten his name) and is now I think simply independent - he’s standing again, isn’t he?
15 - Bob Spink, MP for Castle Point, and yes he is.
12 That news has got to worry the LibDems
15/16 - And Julian Ware-Lane occasionaly of this parish is standing there for Labour, who knows, we might have a few more pbers to join you in the house of commons after the election.
I would be surprised if Galloway wins anything this time round. He had the benefit of the media salivating of his win at the last election, which won’t exist, plus Respect seems to split and divide faster than your average cell these days.
Lucas is in with a reasonable shout in Brighton and she is one of the most effective Green Party advocates we have seen in the UK. Farage should be in with a shout in Buckingham but he will need to do more than just pull in the typical Tory right voter and the reports of his literature have not been positive in that sense.
Blaenau Gwent has gotten the taste for voting Independent as has Wyre Forest. That is a little more interesting as Labour has slipped into third over 2 elections. Will the Tory candidate be able to overhaul the good Doctor? His vote fell rapidly at the last election and with the NHS commitments they have made, the Tories could be well placed to overtake him. Blaenau Gwent could switch back to Labour this time (a “decision election” not a protest will be deployed by Labour I suspect).
I don’t think Esther will do that well. The media circus has moved on from her (certainly nationally) so unless she gets consistent good local press I think she will fizzle out.
On Griffin, I don’t think he will win, but he will get plenty of publicity which is what this is all about. I am still surprised he hasn’t gone for one of the Stoke seats. The BNP are stronger there than pretty much anywhere. If his aim was to be an MP then that would have made more sense.
18 - To join him? I think the vast majority of PBers think Nick is not long for Parliament.
18. I should have thought the odds on both Nick and Julian W-L being MPs after the GE are very long indeed.
Galloway has been a damp squib since being elected in 2005 for that London seat.
Hopefully he will lose in 2010.
Farage & Griffin could provide entetainment value if elected. Where would farage sit though? Would he sit like Iain Paisleys lot used to with the Tories when in government? Likewise Griffin being sat sandwiched between Diane Abbott and Khalid Mahmood on the opposition benches!
http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/league_cup/8443013.stm
How many times do West Ham have to get in trouble before they get put out of their misery and relegated?
22. If Farage wins I fully expect him to try to join the Tories officially in due course.
Net effect of PMQs: Beeb politics page headline =
Voters ‘must see PM face Chilcot’
Which is ideal because it is a potential Brown-killer and a point which had to be made by the LDs rather than the tories.
I think Brown’s “Chilcot makes the rules, I follow them” approach may backfire on him if Chilcot can be made to say directly, or indicate through “sources close to him” that his timetable is elastic and he could happily move the date for Brown to give evidence forward.
So perhaps DC unintentionally did himself a favour by restricting his questions to froth so a not to obscure Clegg’s attack.
Mr Kitchen has an interesting post on tax, charitable giving and Tebbit
http://www.devilskitchen.me.uk/2010/01/lord-tebbit-socking-it-to-them.html
Oh dear. Ricky Hatton to return to the ring. I hope he doesn’t fight anyone good.
He went down frighteningly last time.
23
I remember seeing West Ham in 1987 when there was unrest and racial taunting. Seems the FA are not serious in tackling the issue..
20 - I was being generous to NPMP.
I find his insights useful, last Monday I thought I read too much into a couple of posts about a potential coup, whilst the likes of Nick Robinson were saying there would be no coup, and voila a few days later we had an attempted coup.
and plus he’s a wargamer, which means he gets my eternal respect. Us geeks have to stick together.
Further to 7: The 0-2 bet makes a nice pair with betting on the Greens to win a seat (or simply to win Brighton P.). You’re not very likely to lose both, since the chances of 2 independents excluding the Greens is quite low, and quite likely to win both.
0 - 2 is a cert.
Galloway is suffering delusions.
They ushered us up to the entrance of the BA (British Airways) plane and the first English speaker of the night stepped forward to declare me persona non grata in Egypt.
I made my own declaration to him which was that he and his fellow torturers would one day face the wrath of the Egyptian people, who had queued up at the airport in full view of the goons, to shake hands with us. Later, his department stated I had been banned from Egypt because I was “a trouble-maker” – Mr. Tinpot tyrant 99.99 of the vote Mubarak, you ain’t seen nothing yet!
Read more: http://www.islamonline.net/servlet/Satellite?c=Article_C&cid=1262372296079&pagename=Zone-English-Youth%2FYTELayout#ixzz0cVFAn7AG
Thank you, Shadsy! You’ve given me the ideal way of hedging my chunky bet on the Greens.
Ms Lucas is by far the most probable winner here, and it’s not inconceivable the Green Peril could nick Norwich South. I don’t see any of the other ‘independents’ getting home though. Maybe Esther with a fair wind might just make it and I guess there could be some surprise package out there that could sneak in, but basically I think the Green people are the only ones likely to score on this particular little market.
Since I’m heavily into my Greens anyway, the 5/4 is a brilliant hedge. If the Lovely Lucas doesn’t make it, the 0/2 band is a certainty. Even if she does win, I could still collect on this bet, as well as the Pavillion.
Good lad that Shadsy. Isn’t the top job at Ladbrokes free at the moment?
6 or more seems inconceivable and certainly far longer than 11/4; maybe 25/1 or even longer. George Galloway looks like toast and Dr Taylor must be odds against. If they both lose, not only must Dai Davies win, he must be joined by Caroline Lucas, Nigel Farage, maybe a Green in Norwich South, Nick Griffin, Esther Rantzen and, er…
Start totting up the odds and 11/4 looks terrible value. With the other two options coming to a probability of 38/45, I put sums appropriately weighted to get a return in a few months of 7/38 on my capital. I don’t want to be fretting about whether Nigel Farage has defied the odds. And isn’t our host’s bet a bit inconsistent with his repeatedly stated view that Nigel Farage will beat John Bercow?
32 PtP - Snap with my 30. What took you so long to figure that one out?
31 - I never understood why Galloway didn’t do his famous cat impression when he got kicked out of Egypt. They love cats.
23. Well, personally, I would like them to stay up, as East London’s only Premiership team. One can’t excuse hooliganism by any set of supporters however.
33 Antifrank
Gorgeous George has been obliged to move south from Beautiful Bethnal Green to Perilous Poplar, where he is about as popular as peritonitis.
Trust you are feeling better.
Get some of the 5/4, while it lasts, to cheer yourself up.
34 I was busy getting my money down, Richard.
Young Shadsy has got it wrong for once and I didn’t want to miss the price.
19 If a candidate can be confirmed with only a week or two before the GE, perhaps Griffin could swap seats - or can a candidate stand in two at once?
I hope none of them win, except the chap in Wales if he is still standing. The only prize I would give Caroline Lucas is one at a WI fete for growing the biggest marrow. The Greens are the worst fascists of political correctness in the country. The country is facing its worst crisis for 50 years so we need as many Tory MPs as possible not fringe party representatives and freak shows.
I would love to see a member of the public on camera ask Esther Rantzen about her views on women stealing their best friend’s husbands.
Just look at the betting in the crucial Seats and ADD UP the percentages*.
My own fancy is for three Indies, which doesn’t help much.
SIX+ however is an obscenity and ideally you would like to Lay that one.
* For example if the price for The Greens at Pavilion is EVENS, then that constitutes half of a Seat. If the assessed price for Dai Davies is 4-5, then that is 5-9ths of a Seat.
Just keep on adding them up.
38 PtP - It was 6/4 when the market first came up…
What is the green policy in Britain to refugees? Here in Oz the policy seems to be to let everyone in, even if the spy organisations here say the people who are trying to sneak in illegally are a risk and have terrorist links.
Laughing stock sums it up accurately. They are a liability. although we all support them a bit on stopping those nasty nips killing whales in oz waters against international protocol for research. How come the whale meat goes into packets of whale jerky though, not much “research” going on there….
Shots of the japs on a big whaling vessel trying to hose the greenies off the deck of a vessel in antarctic waters after smashing it into a thousand pieces has been priceless on the news here. Clearly what happened in 1945 did not quite get them to accept they are the chappies who do what we say…..
Find Lucas’ views in Britain on letting people in with dubious records and brighton pavilion becomes rock solid again! Brighton rock….. has anice ring to it.
36 Sunil
Hooliganism inexcusable at Upton Park? I thought it was compulsory.
I can’t see Ester doing anything - wannabee attention seeker in a seat where the egregious Margaret Moran has already announced she’s standing down.
An effort as pointless as Heffer in Saffron Walden.
42 Yeah, well I’m doing a rare bit of work today so I couldn’t be checking in every five minutes, as I usually do. 5/4 will do me nicely though.
…The National Institute Of Economic And Social Research (NIESR) published their Estimates Of Monthly GDP report today.
Their monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.3 per cent in the three months ending in December, following on from a growth of 0.2 per cent in the three months ending in November. These data show that GDP fell by 4.8 per cent in 2009. This is a bigger fall than in any year of the great depression and is Britain’s biggest contraction since 1921.
The broader picture of the depression is that output fell sharply for twelve months until March and has not changed very much since then, although evidence of a recovery is starting to emerge.
http://www.freshbusinessthinking.com/news.php?NID=3130&Title=Biggest+Contraction+In+GDP+Since+1921
[Official GDP figures scheduled for 26/01/2010]
39. It used to be commonplace for prominent figures to stand in multiple constituencies, as a hedge against defeat. I think Gladstone only got in at the third attempt at one of the late 19th century elections.
I’ve joined Mike on the 0-2 option at seemingly very generous odds of 5/4.
My confident expectation is 0-1(maximum).
Orange to close call centre in Bristol. 300 jobs to go
For anyone interested I have updated the regional split trend graphs I am doing for ICM polls. They can be found at:
http://regionalpollsuk.blogspot.com/
Are you so sure about Dr Taylor’s demise? The impression I get is that he’s been an excellent MP, and incidentally one whose expense claims have been particularly modest. I’d have thought there’s a strong personal vote there - but maybe, I’m wrong. It’d be a real shame to see him go, especially when so many charlatons and apparatchiks will be elected.
44. PtP:
It’s either the Hammers or Leyton Orient…or Dagenham & Redbridge
(I live sort of equidistant from all three)
Living only a mile or two from Barking, I hope Nick Griffin doesn’t win, yet it would be interesting to see the media reaction if he does.
49.Peter the Punter. I am willing to bet THREE against NONE or TWO against ONE……any other result NO BET.
Same offer to tim or OGH.
5/4 would not look so good if say The Lady Joanna of Lumley or some other well known national or local one issue campaigner decides to stand as an independent somewhere. Assuming a May GE that could easily happen in the remaining time available.
Are all the disgraced trougher MPs standing down and if not what are the chances of them being opposed by an independent?
37 - Peter, thanks for the kind wishes. I’m home but more or less bedridden, so betting right now is theoretical, especially since the other half flipped his lid when I went on the computer for 15 minutes earlier. I can still talk a good game on my blackberry.
*Betting Post*
Since I have a few moments to spare before returning to (ahem) ‘work’, and there’s hasn’t been a lot of betting activity lately, I may as well pass on my opening bet for the Cheltenham Festival. It’s in the opening race in fact, The Supreme Novices Hurdle, where two horses have form which is virtually identical and much superior to all the other suspects. They are Dunguib and Menorah. The odds are 11/8 and 9/1 respectively.
Guess which one I’ve backed?
52 - If you look at the fact the Tories improved their performance from 2001 to 2005 by nearly 10% and leapfrogging Labour into second place, but the key factor for me, is the Lib Dems fielding a candidate there, which will probably split the good Doctor’s vote.
Add into the mix 10,000 Labour voters there to be squeezed, and Dr Taylor’s majority of 5,250 looks vulnerable.
I did a teaching practice at Lady Lumley’s Grammar School.
Live blog of Andrew Turnbull @ Chilcott
http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/blog/2010/jan/13/iraq-war-inquiry-iraq
Waugh reports being handed de-classified MOD docs.
56 Goupillon
A few months back I reported here that an acquaintance had had the pleasure of interviewing the luscious Lumley round about the time of the Ghurka business and asked her whether she’d had thoughts of standing. The reply was a clear no.
Of course it’s possible she could change her mind, but I very much doubt it.
63.Ptp - lets hope shr changes her mind…. or perhaps not in your case?
63 - Would be hilarious if she stood against Woolas.
59. Yes I accept that but I think there are two relevant factors here: 1) this is now a seat that Labour have no chance of winning, which might facilitate Lab-Ind defections; 2) Dr Taylor is so clearly not a politician - and does appear, I think, to most people, as having genuine integrity that I don’t think the usual rules will necessarily apply here. Granted I’m a fan - and it could be wishful thinking, but I’ll still be surprised - as well as saddened to see him go.
55 Thanks but no thanks, URW.
Frankly I think Lucas should be 4/6 for Brighton and I guess the Welsh guy has a good chance too, so I’d be very surprised to see a zero result, and even one is not very attractive at evens. What’s more, Shadsy’s bet is my perfect hedge, given the generous odds I’ve already netted on the Greens.
I’ve lumped on with Lads. I expect they can afford it.
Tories have piled in behind LDs that Gordon testifies early to Chilcott.
66 - I too would be sad to see him go.
I’m just trying to work out why the Lib Dems decided to stand this time, they’ve stood aside for him in the past.
Perhaps they saw the Tories taking the seat anyway, and wanted to get in there as a launchpad for 2014/15?
64 Honestly, Goupillon, it was an emphatic ‘No’ in an off-the-record discussion, and frankly I think she’d be crackers to get involved in the media circus of an election. She’s far too classy for that sort of thing.
Full Populus tables available (quick for them):
http://www.populus.co.uk/the-times-the-times-poll-january-2010-100110.html
Interesting on the report that The Times ran, you would have thought Cameron was in deep trouble. A lot of the questions are showing good scores, Brown has some successes and Clegg has a mixed bag…
65 - That clusterfcuk of interview/press conference with Woolas was one my political highlights of 2009, indeed ever
48. Gladstone sat for South Lancashire 1865-8 - which included Crosby - as one Liberal against 2 Tories in a three-member seat. The Great Reform act abolished 3 member seats, and the new 2-member seat of South-West Lancashire was a worse prospect for Gladstone. He stood there at the general election of 1868, narrowly losing, while simultaneously standing and winning in Greenwich…
Bob Spink has been very well backed to retain Castle Point. There are quite a few other indies running elsewhere who’ve attracted decent support (e.g. an ex-Tory councillor in Dewsbury), the odd single issue candidate (a “top surgeon” running against McNulty in Harrow East) and plenty of time for others to enter the race. There’s another credible Green candidate in Norwich South to consider as well. And if Tom Knox decides to throw his millions behind Mebyon Kernow, who knows what they’ll do?
So I think there are quite a few stray bullets to dodge for those backing 0-2.
FPT 326,333,334. Glad some from here got on my Brian Laws tip.
I doubt strongly that he was actually 3rd choice despite the reporting. I actually think that he might do a good job, although as a West Ham fan I hope he doesn’t!
Now got a few quid in my betfair account, might actually do some political bettings now!
68
It would be good manners and good politics if DC allowed Clegg to make the running on this one, especially at PMQs. However, on the basis of the Campbell hearing, nothing that effected an election would emerge anyway.
Andy Burnham has just dropped a May election clanger - that’s the third one so far - Straw, Bryant and now Burnham.
BBCLauraK Andy Burnham’s made a slip of the tongue on the election date - ‘we can have changed a little piece of the law by May, er, this year’ - oops
74 - Bob Spink, has a good track record in Castle Point, he retook it in 2001 (after losing it in 1997)
Considering how bad 2001 was for the Tories, that is some achievement.
He knows the seat well.
3-5 looks very good value.
Dai Davies won a by-election in 2006 - I would guess he has enough local loyalty there to hold on. Dr Taylor likewise - he was 10 points ahead of the tories last time.
Caroline Lucas has an okay chance. Bob Spink is not completely lost, and neither are Farage / Griffin. One of those 4 should get elected.
And most general elections throw up either a surprise independent who slips in under the national radar (Peter Law), or a last minute maverick who gets lots of press coverage (Martin Bell / Galloway).
3 seats is most likely.
77 - Given how many times Labour politicians have dropped that clanger, can we rule it as a double bluff, and expect a March election?
74 ‘Stray bullets’ is right, Shads, but if Lucas fails, can you really see three others landing?
Btw, did you get my messages on Leyton & Wanstead? I reckon 1/5 Labour if Dromey does not stand; 1/2 if he does.
73. Sinn Fein’s Arthur Griffith stood in a couple of Irish seats in 1918, AIUI.
R5 reporting contraction in GDP is as worse as 1921.
R5L: NIESR reporting that last year was the worst for an economic decline since 1921.
79. The Screaming Eagles January 13th, 2010 at 3:09 pm
Well If Brown did go early (March) it would mean Brown was indecive again on election timing and he was making decisions without consulting his cabinet!
As a follow up they are also predicting a 0.3% growth in GDP.
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/Business/UK-Recession-Set-To-End-New-Research-Figures-Show-As-GDP-Rises/Article/201001215521369?f=rss
79 My initial reaction as it seems so obvious - we’ve had all these within the space of a week.
And frankly would Bryant be high enough up the food chain to be involved at 10+ weeks out?
Hmm. In the New year predictions, I’ve gone for 2 Others: one Green and one Independent (Blaenau Gwent).
At the moment, Lucas may well be favourite in Brighton Pavilion, though favourite doesn’t mean odds-on in this case. Davies is really the sort of Labour MP BG wanted and assuming that he continues in his current style, I can’t see why Labour would win the seat back.
So, two strong possibles. Beyond that, I can’t see any obvious gainers but there are quite a few outside chances. The Greens might win a second, the BNP are unlikely to win anywhere as things stand, likewise UKIP. I’m highly sceptical of Rantzen’s chances and would have been surprised to see Dr. Kidderminster win again even if the Lib Dems weren’t standing, which they are.
However, their respective chances aren’t independent of each other (or more accurately, contain some elements that are dependent on the same things). I agree with those who say Shadsy’s out on this one; I’d make it nearer 0-2 4/7, 3-5 2/1, 6+ 10/1
81 - He wasnt the only one. Liam Mellows was elected in Meath North and Galway East in 1918 (though obviously never took his seat). I’m sure there were others - Dev at least if not more.
Prices up at Ladbrokes for every seat in London.
82/83 - So Brown’s lie that the Cameron’s policies would have led to a great depression, have been proved to be bollocks, as Brown’s policies achieved that.
BREAKING
Sh1t in the fan at Chilcott
http://waugh.standard.co.uk/2010/01/secret-papers-released-mod-on-un-backing-for-legality-of-iraq-war.html
81. Oh, and Eamonn de Valera too.
81/88.92. Irish election of 1918:
http://www.ark.ac.uk/elections/h1918.htm
Crikey Bored!
I could just do with some pints!
Though I would probably break my neck on the ice that the Labour Government and Labour Council have left the public to kill themselves on!
90 - Screaming. It’s worth having a look at the chart on the right of the NIESR home page at
http://www.niesr.ac.uk/
It shows the changes in GDP since the start of each recession…
So Griffin could stand against Cruddas and Straw in that case - could it start a voting war or split it with Labour?
I’m thinking X-Factor psychology here.
95 - Thanks.
81. Griffith was elected for both Cavan East and Tyrone North West. De Valera was elected for both Clare East and Mayo East. There were one or two other Shinners who achieved this too in 1918, making them the last people to achieve double election to Westminster. None of them of course took their seats, and no by-elections were precipatated in the “spare” seats, which was the ordinary outcome in such cases…
Blaenau Gwent will be very close.There are famously few Tories/Libdems there but much will turn on whether those few will continue to vote tactically to keep Labour out.An increase in the Tory vote is likely to give the seat back to Labour.
85 I am Convinced one way or another by hook or by crook they will somehow get the Q4 figures to a positive. The alternative is armageddon.
When they do just wait for the stream of ministers piling into the studios across the land saying ‘don’t let the party opposite destroy the recovery’. PMQ’s will this stated in every other sentence between the tractor stats. Make use of the lull between now asn the 21st because we had better get used to it as thats all any minister is going to say all the way from here in to the election. It will become as annoying as ‘no more boom and bust’
Ironic to think that they will try to use this to their advantage when it was them that caused the worse destruction since 1921.
94 The trick is to lay down the plonk in advance - I stocked up on port last week and am nicely warm and fuzzy despite the snow
The main betting activity of the day has been our Turnout market. Someone has tipped up the high bands and our current prices are now:
Under 55 12/1
55-59.99 6/1
60-64.99 11/4
65-69.99 6/4 (from 2/1)
Above 70 9/4 (from 11/4)
93. Dr. James Ryan (Wexford South) was my grandmother’s cousin…
101 – Plato, do you prefer vintage, or any old Port in a storm..?
100 I’m sure they’ll try it but since they peed off the Dir of the ONS over knife-crime stats, they’d be playing with fire.
Also the vast majority of voters think HMG stats are cobblers
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a41e61f6-f4e2-11de-9cba-00144feab49a.html?catid=75&SID=google
“…The results are similar across most countries but it is Britain where worries about accuracy and suspicions of political interference are greatest. Only 9 per cent of Britons believe official figures are free from political manipulation, a view shared by 13 per cent of Americans and 15 per cent of French people. Just six per cent of people in Britain believe the government presents official figures honestly, while only 10 per cent do so in both France and Germany.
The levels of trust are much lower than suggested by the only previous comparable survey, conducted by the EU and published in 2007. This showed that Europe’s population was evenly split between those who did trust official figures and those who did not.
The latest survey shows not only that most adults think politicians manipulate the figures, but that about 70 per cent think the problem of interpretation is compounded by politicians or the media spinning the published results.
More than half the adults in each country do not trust official figures as a result of them not matching their personal experiences. This could be because both the boom years and the recession have had very different effects on people in different sectors of society.
The UK had previously conducted a similar survey of British opinion, but it appears that faith in statistics has fallen since 2007.
The UK has tried to address the concerns by introducing statistics legislation and Sir Michael Scholar, the first chair of the resulting UK Statistics Authority, recently said that “democratic processes need information on which the public can rely in deciding who to vote for”…
104 Groan
Hat tip to Sth London Nick on the Populus data:
http://populuslimited.com/uploads/download_pdf-100110-The-Times-The-Times-Poll—January-2010.pdf
How the times came to intial conclusions is beyond me. It’s well worth looking at the responses to the questions.
Batch File January 13th, 2010 at 3:25 pm
Yes but Brown used to talk about the 1992 recovery in these terms:
Mr. Brown Does the Chancellor recall that when the interest rate decision was announced I said that the state of manufacturing and of investment was such that an interest rate cut had to be justified? Will he also explain why, four years into what he says is a recovery, (Column 1150) manufacturing output in the last quarter of last year and the first quarter of this year was technically in recession, and why investment has never recovered during this “recovery”?
http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/commons/1996/jul/17/the-economy#S6CV0281P0_19960717_HOC_242
Of copurse toenails will be barking to Browns tune but the above is not a sole example of what Doom Monger Brown used to say! 4 years into a recovery and he claimed they were still in a recession!!!!
Frankly it annoys me that the Tories dont make more of what Brown said then and compare it to now.
I wouldn’t be surprised if the body of some lowly, dispensible MP were to be found floating in, say, the boating lake at Highfield Park, with the wrong election date in his pockets.
104 Ruby port for me
Unfortunately, it turns my tongue purple 
Still it could be worse, I could get gout [I worked with someone who got it and it sounded awfully painful].
101. Plato January 13th, 2010 at 3:25 pm
I try not to store booze in the house as I will drink it!
If you have to walk in freezing conditions you think twice - think i will do some weights instead!
Official figures showed manufacturing output failed to grow in November for a second month in a row despite the weak pound. It triggered a fresh wave of warnings that, although the economy appears to have started growing again in the final quarter of last year after the longest slump in at least 50 years, it could relapse into recession.
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard-business/article-23794609-flat-manufacturing-talks-of-recessions-return.do
So I forecast the Q4 will be +0.1% just enough to last for the election naturally. This will be hailed as a great victory for our beloved leader Gordon Brown who will be credited for leading the entire world out of recesssion having steered us through these dangerous times to the saftey of stalingrad after the battle was completed, unlike the do nothing party opposite.
100 The “don’t let the party opposite destroy the recovery” line may well only work for a March election…
If there is no longer a recovery by May because of a wretched Q1 2020, then Labour has taken some very heavy munitions to its footwear…
Say hello, sub 100 seats.
I still think March - all the “slips of the tongue” from Cabinet Ministers are chaff.
Is anyone watching Countdown? One of the contestant, must have the most interesting accent on there.
109 With an election leaflet with Gordon on it too
Tebbit comes out for the LDs.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/normantebbit/100022127/why-wont-the-two-main-parties-do-anything-about-the-madness-of-taxing-the-poor/
114 You watch Countdown at work? Now that’s serious delegation!
117. There is only one reason to watch Countdown and she’s better than Voderman.
118 - Susie Dent?
55 URW - I think you were addressing me in 49, but like my near namesake, my answer is Thanks, but No Thanks.
I’ve taken the value bet from Shadsy. He’s dreaming if he’s relying on the likes of the independent Conservative winning Dewsbury - absolutely no chance imho.
116 He has a very sensible point IMO - for a system to say you can pay tax yet be eligible for benefits is nonsense if the system was working properly.
108 Just picked up that post
My 112 looks suspiciously like a repeat of that same scenario but without the 4 years interval. Be interesting to see what he says in a week or so and then compare as you say.
Re Lib Dem seat numbers:
I was very surprised to see the following quote on Lib Dem seats from Eric Pickles reported on Conservative Home-
“I think that if [Nick Clegg] has a parliamentary party [numbering] in the mid-30s, he will have done really well to hold on to that,” said Eric Pickles, the Tory party chairman. “Mid-30s” would mean the party had lost almost half of its 63 Commons seats.
Much though I owuld like to see the Lib Dems utterly bomb my personal response was that this was a significant over-estimate of their losses. However allowing himself to be quoted like this indicates that he must feel pretty confident about it, otherwise he is leaving a considerable hostage to fortune.
I suspect that when he said it he really meant that Lib Dem losses to the Tories would be 25+ not that the Lib Dems would get a total in the mid 30s, i.e. that he was excluding any possible gains by the Lib Dems from labour (why should he have any detailed knowledge of those seats). Thus the real total on the basis of his estmiate of Conservative gains is likely to early to mid 40s (on the basis that they gain 7/8 seats from Labour). Nonetheless it is a poorer outlook than most are predicting for the LDs and as I say its surprising that he allowed himself o be quoted on it.
55 - URW I’ll take 1 against 3 if you’re offering.
117 - I can multitask, plus I have sky HD and a 46inch tv in my office.
The joys of my office being the old conference room, with lots of space and room for a tv
Some Independents and their prices:
Blaenau G: Dai Davies 8/11
Brighton Pav: Greens Evs
Castle Point: Bob Spink 9/4
Wyre F: Doctor 11/8
Bethnal G & Bow: Respect 11/4
Buckingham: UKIP 3/1
Norwich S: Greens 4/1
Barking: BNP 9/2
Luton S: Rantzen 6/1
Poplar & L: Respect 7/1
Crikey - Ms Dent is a looker isn’t she?!! Who’s the anchorman?
Haven’t seen Countdown in 10 yrs or more. I did watch the first one though
126. So in all, closer to 3 seats than 2…
Update from Waugh - Turnbull sticking the knife in
http://waugh.standard.co.uk/2010/01/secret-papers-released-mod-on-un-backing-for-legality-of-iraq-war.html
121
Depends what you are trying to do. If you subscribe to the “all money is property of the state and the citizen will be given what the state thinks fit” then the present system is perfect - and you are Gordon ******* Brown and I claim the £30k you have cost me.
127. Susie Dent a looker? No, not really
127. The blonde is Rachel Riley..
(10+10)*(9+8)+1
At last, Cameron’s got it. He finally varied his tactics at PMQs today. Brown had no warning. That made the change doubly effective.
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/5703483/an-energetic-contest.thtml
127 - Anchorman is Jeff Stelling. Suzie Dent is hot, but Rachel Riley is hotter still, and single these days too.
128. 2.974, according to my spreadsheet!
This will make me sleep much easier tonight.
The U.K.’s debt burden will amount to 80 percent of GDP this year, Italy’s will rise to 117 percent and Greece’s will be 125 percent, according to the commission’s forecasts
Always someone worse off than yourself
132
Wish I had a bum that still looked like hers 
1. I think Galloway has no serious chance, nor Griffin
2. I would be doubtful about Farage
3. I know too little about the Welsh seat to pass comment
4. People tend to veer away from voting Green in a general Election
5. Richard Taylor walks on water in Kidderminster and is almost certain to get back
6. there are other independents who may do very well; Steven Ford, a local GP in Hexham is very well known up there, and very organized. I would not write off Esther, nor Martin Bell if he stands against an expenses scammer (e.g hazel Blears)
136 Like being grateful for merely being an economic paraplegic ? Oh, I feel so much better
On topic: isn’t there a Birmingham seat where Respect also did well in 2005? Also what’s the odds on Clare Short’s last-minute defection to the LDs, like Brian Sedgemore in 2005?
136 - Always someone worse off than yourself
Point him out - I could use a laugh
I have deserted Kirsty for Rachel:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=21yQ8jfFkYE
136. Yay - a paralympics medal .
139 - Yes Birmingham Sparbrook and Small Heath, Salma Yaqoob of respect came 2nd there in 2005
I’d be minded to take 6/4 on 3 to 5 rather than 5/4 on 2 or fewer.
Can’t really see Dai Davies losing - the by-election wasn’t that close and Labour have hardly surged forward since 2006. Lucas has to be favourite in Brighton now and Kidderminster Health Concern look resilient in Wyre Forest - I think Tories overestimate their prospects and Labour vote may now collapse there.
So I’d suggest two of those three will win and there are enough other fair prospects (plus the wildcard possibility that more insurgent campaigns may emerge) that 3 to 5 looks fractionally more tempting. A well balanced market though.
Blimey Countdown has improved
143 - Sparkbrook even
(6*100+3)+(75+50)/25
Can anyone do better than related?
My claim to fame, I was on countdown, as a mere 19 year old.
Rachel Riley looks OK
I consulted the anagram checker - retotaled or tolerated both work!
149. Really? Hopefully under your real name I hope! There was a teenage Sunil on there too, many years ago, but he wasn’t me
149 NERD ALERT!!!
I was in the audience of WWTBAM when no one won anything much… but the seats were so uncomfortable that my legs went to sleep and the staging seized up so we had to wait 2hrs until men with hammers fixed it.
152 - Yes really, back in 1998. Won one show, was then thrashed in the 2nd match, by the eventual winner. I came up with an 8 letter word, he came out with a 9 letter word.
Richard Whiteley was a legend. Top bloke, even if i did mock him over the Tompkins Table.
109 The actual GE day will I think be determined on when the MSM are likely to start speculating about Q1/2010 and the posibility of a dead cat bounce. This speculation will start earlier than normal given the impending GE of course and the affects such a reversal would have. May is in that respect is not a good time to undertake an election though it would be warmer of course and make people feel better.
With an 0.1% figure in January then I suspect they would need to go for a campaign before April hence March 25th?. The decisons on what to do next cannot be put off indefinetly and again if they go in May or June the situation will be become yet more dire and they will have to fight an election being much more open and honest with the electoate. They would never do that as we know.
The budget also would have to be completed and I just cannot see Brown wanting to do one even though he could use it as a pre election giveaway but the media would rip him to shreds.
So I guess failing a sudden storm rolling in across the English channel they would call a GE in first week of March. This is really the only hope they have now as lets face it they can’t keep the Limo’s circling No 10 indefinetly like the last time.
One downfall of the above is given the normal stupidity of the occupier of No 10 you can pretty much guarantee he will choose the worse time for Labour.
154 You’re being a tease - what word did you come up with and beaten by?
I won’t believe you if you can’t remember
123. max u January 13th, 2010 at 3:44 pm
Why what does it matter to pickles what seats the Lib Dems might pick up off Labour? The Lib Dems will lose many seats to the Tories and one has to remember that some of the projections using “UNS” but taking into account Lib Dem incumbancy are dissed by Lib Dems as not taking local factors into account - In other words Lib Dems want to double countlocal factors.
Lib Dems get away with ramping about alsorts of seats, many of the Labour held seats Lib Dems claim they will get are harder fruit to pick than they imagine IMO. Tory voters have tended to be harder to squeese than Labour votes in seats where the Tories short of a miricle are unlikely to win vs Lib Dems against Tories. Many Tories I know would not vote Lib Dem locally to give the Lib Dems a seat - what does it do for them? The Lib Dem vote is also likely to be going down nationally as will Labours but the Lib Dems are unlikely to lose quite as much. Labour 36% down to say 28% and Lib Dems down from 23% to say 18%.
Afternoon all
Re: 123 - As an LD, I’d rather not see the party “bomb” but there you go…for me, the benchmark is 46 (the seat tally in 1997). Better than that, I’ll be delighted. To be fair, 35-40 would represent a good result historically and a good basae to build on Conservative mid-term problems.
50+ would be excellent and I’m not discounting one or two surprise gains from Labour but there will be some sharp losses to the Conservatives and some real nail-biters as well.
I’d love to see a market on the number of seats with majorities of less than 100, 101-500, 501-1000 etc. I think there will be some close finishes around and about - wasn’t the lowest majority 33 in Crawley last time ?
Hmm. Will the Budget (if one sees the light of day) be built on the figures for Q4 or total fantasy?
Answers on a postcard…
Batch File January 13th, 2010 at 4:12 pm
I should not be laughing as we are pretty much in a national emergency and I have heard reports that the foul weather is coming back even colder after about 7 days!
In this warmer interlude in the weather I am using candels to warm my living room!
156 - I cant remember that.
I do remember the conundrum
Brainy Get = Betraying.
wasn’t the lowest majority 33 in Crawley last time ?
37 actually, but that was quite high by historical standards…
158 I remain optimistic that the Conservatives will gain fewer than 10 seats from the LibDems . Of more interest is why are Conhome rehashing this Pickles forecast which he made last August .
On another topic John Hemmings has won an emergency debate in the HofC concerning contempt of the house by a firm of solicitors ( acting I believe on behalf of Tesco’s ) who have sent him a threatening Email .
156 - This is the calibre of the man I dealt with. On the numbers (which I was good at, he got this)
the target was 952.
The numbers were 100, 75, 50, 25, 6, 3
I thought i did well to get 953.
He came up with the following solution
(100 + 6) x 3 = 318
318 x 75 = 23,850
23,850 - 50 = 23,800
23,800/25 = 952
128/135. I’m not sure it’s right to add the odds like that as it assumes that the elections are independent events, which they’re not. For example, it’s highly unlikely that the Greens will win Norwich South if they don’t win Brighton Pavilion.
Indeed, as they’re almost by definition fishing in the same anti-establishment (and often close to or actually anti-politician) pool, swings in voter mood like over Expenses will increase or decrease all their chances simultaneously.
I’d still be surprised if more than two win their seats.
164 Whoa - that’s one awesome opponent - did he get far?
159. Didn’t Darling confirm in an article a few days back that there would be a budget? Or did I mis-hear/mis-remember the report?
160, Martin I’d recommend a Slanket! http://www.theslanket.com/ I got one for Christmas and it’s kept me very warm through this terrible AGW
166 - He went on to win the series.
fix the Q4 Figures? surely not Labour would never do such a thing as fix figures err…would they?
TWICE as many families have lost their home in the recession than official figures suggest, the Tories claim.
Yesterday they challenged Labour assertions that repossessions are falling. The total is being deliberately underestimated, they said, by excluding “sale and rentbacks”. This is when owners with mortgage arrears are forced to sell their home to a firm which then allows them to continue living in the house as tenants.
http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/151404/Repossession-figure-is-bogus-
169 Bit like being beaten by Brazil in the World Cup then.
Re: 162 - Rod, do you think there will be more close finishes than in past elections ? Winchester in 97 notwithstanding, there were a number of close results (majorities under 1000) in 1992.
I wonder if we could see up to five seats with majorities less than 100 - again, welcome any thoughts/analysis.
171 - That’s how I viewed it.
64
I think I remember watching that one, open mouthed, as his total went into the tens of thousands.
Holy heck. Rachel Riley looks amazing in that clip.
168 - my daughter got me a Snuggie (same idea) for Christmas with the Cowboys logo on it…
Once you get past the static (a drawback with forced air gas heating) it’s nice and warm
I’d love to see a Green MP after this election and I would also like to see Nigel Farage get elected. He is a true fighter for democracy (although I hate most of his policies!).
167 You should always file a Labour official confirmation under ‘Pending’.
169 Which one was it?
http://www.btinternet.com/~m.d.pratesi/mp/Countdownfinals.html
And here are pix of all the winners = bad hair days and beards abound…
http://www.btinternet.com/~m.d.pratesi/mp/Countdownfinals.html
Who would create a tribute website like this???
I am a Conservative. There I’ve admitted it. That is, in every seat in Britain bar one, Buckingham.
For that reason I was a little disappointed to see Nigel Farage taking such a softly softly approach with his website and pitch for Buckingham.
I would like to see him taking the bull by the horns as is surely his more natural style.
Like this maybe.
O/t but topical
Has any one heard of the brilliant piece of investigative journalism that discovered TB’s drug habit from years ago?
A case of No Tone left unstoned
I’ll get my coat.
Blimey, Susie Dent, public school (Ascot), Somerville College Oxford, Princeton University, teacher and pretty as a picture.
I thought she just read the dictionary…!
Populus poll (E&W only)
Con 44.2% : Lab 26.4% : LD 19% : Oth 8.9%
O/T
Anyone live near Heathrow? Now trying to get down from Scotland. Had one flight cancelled and now the later flight is suddenly delayed due weather. Just wondered if its still snowing down there and what the rail was looking like towards Bristol.
anyone know?
I was on 15-1 as a mere 30something
179 - Crikey he didn’t win.
Makes my defeat, even worse
Good lord. Cameroon are losing to Gabon.
What is going on in this ACON?
184 Weather at Heathrow and Bristol
http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/index-forecast.asp?postalcode=TW3%204BB
http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/index-forecast.asp?postalcode=BS1%209ZZ
Nothing to do with me!!!!
http://uk.news.yahoo.com/18/20100113/tuk-huddersfield-uni-probes-hitler-drink-a7ad41d.html
I saw the above when seeing the bad news on jobs below:
http://uk.news.yahoo.com/21/20100113/tuk-staff-in-tears-as-orange-site-shuts-6323e80.html
186 I’d be the Lammy quality contestant on Countdown
Re Populus - can anyone explain why the numbers on slide 2 are Con 42, Lab 27 but then on slide 3 they say published figures are Con 41 Lab 28?
185 - Eh? Where?
187 - Chris, am glad to see I’m not the only nerd on pb
191 And isn’t the management-speak in the Orange announcement hideous?
Penned by a Human Resources drone no doubt.
186. There was snow falling up until lunchtime, but thawing now. They had to reduce down to single runway operation earlier, and that resulted in loads of cancellations. My guess is the knock-on effects will last the rest of the day. Gatwick is an even bigger mess.
196 - Orange’s parent company, is France Telecom, where 23 staff committed suicide
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/8252547.stm
196/198 - and this too
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/8290771.stm
Have you seen this game on being MP for a week?!!!
I expect Nick Palmer to get 100%!!!
http://www.parliament.uk/education/online-resources/games/mp-for-a-week.htm
190 Much thanks better than the site I was trying to use.
Have always tended to go along the lines of if someone can look out the window approach to weather rather than use the multi million pound Met office random predictive weather generator.
186 - Batch file, just advised my husband to get the train home from London, he was due out of Gatwick but there are so many flights cancelled it’s not even worth going out to the airport. Whereabouts are you leaving Scotland from ?
Betting Post
TSE - I think you are confused in Birmingham.
The seat you should be looking at is Birmingham Hall Green.
This is at least as much a four way marginal as Norwich South, yet the odds are not as tight.
The winner will probably be elected with the lowest share of the vote in the country, about 14000 to win it.
16/1 on the Tory with Victor Chandler is verging on the insane.
172. number of sub-100 majorities since 1945…
1945 7
1950 7
1951 4
1955 2
1959 7
1964 7
1966 4
1970 4
1974F 3
1974O 6
1979 4
1983 5
1987 2
1992 4
1997 4
2001 4
2005 4
198 When I worked for BT [8 yrs and similar sized org] I never heard of anyone committing suicide on the premises/throwing themselves from windows.
Three peeps died of heart attacks during meetings though…
197 thanks appreciated. They are less than helpful here with such info. Its going to be a long day (and possibly night)
203 - No, Birmingham Sparkbrook and Small Heath
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Roger Godsiff 13,787 36.1 -21.4
Respect Salma Yaqoob 10,498 27.5 N/A
LD Talib Hussain 7,727 20.2 +7.0
Tory Sameer Mirza 3,480 9.1 -1.7
UKIP 1,342 3.5 +1.8
Green 855 2.2 N/A
Independent 503 1.3 N/A
Majority 3,289 8.6%
Turnout 38,192 51.8% +2.5
Labour hold Swing -24.4%
205. Trur story - where I used to work, several people died in the space of a few months, management decided to plant a memorial tree…
…which died.
203/207 - You’re right Tim, it’s Hall Green she’s standing in now, not Sparkbrook
208 Did Gordon help plant it?
He has to be the unluckiest politician of the modern age. I know Guido takes the pee relentlessly, but he does seem to have a talent for touching bad news.
203 - That’s a great spot Tim.
From wikipedia
Boundary review
Following their review of parliamentary representation in Birmingham and the West Midlands, the Boundary Commission for England have created a modified version of the Hall Green seat which contains only a third of the existing constituency. It retains only one of its former wards — Hall Green itself — and adds three new wards, including two from the Sparkbrook and Small Heath constituency which is to be abolished at the next General Election. Its new wards are:
Though I am loathe to bet in a seat with such a large proportion of muslim voters.
202 Kristin
Aberdeen
The snow has cleared up here. Ironic really I normally fly up here into snow rather than the other way round.
Got to get down the line to Bristol from HWR so no doubt that will be fun
186. rail updated changes:-
http://www.nationalrail.co.uk/service_disruptions/today.html
Re:204 - Thanks, Rod, very detailed. Five looks a reasonable call overall although there seems little rhyme or reason involved. Close results or landslides seem to make no difference which isn’t wholly surprising.
213 Thanks really helpful as someone else said PB rocks there is always someone here who has the good latest info.
186. trains from bristol and the west:-
http://firstgreatwestern.co.uk/
test
I live in Norwich and am firmly of the view that a Green win is very unlikely in Norwich South. Charles Clarke should hold the seat - indeed I suspect the LibDem vote will fall by more than Labour as ex-Labour voters switch their protest votes from the LibDems to the Greens.It might be close for second place between LibDems and Tories - but expect Greens to still be 4th.
193. Re Populus. I think slide 3 is adjusted for “Don’t knows” and Refusals, based on the given 2005 voting record.
O/T what if any bounce will a last quarter positive GDP figure give to Brown even if its only 0.2 or 0.3% ?
218 Bunnco is wrong then, Justin?
He has a good reputation on this Site.
Waugh reports that Saddam told FBI debriefers he lied about WMD to scare Iran.
another update http://waugh.standard.co.uk/2010/01/secret-papers-released-mod-on-un-backing-for-legality-of-iraq-war.html
And Dougie Alexander is getting in a tangle over Watt’s account
http://waugh.standard.co.uk/2010/01/douglas-alexander-on-watt-and-that-quote-on-brown.html
http://waugh.standard.co.uk/2010/01/wee-dougies-view-of-gordon.html
220, depends just how orgasmic the coverage from the leftists *cough*BBC*cough* is.
218 - I would think that 20%+ would be a great result for the Greens there. Realistically it is a seat they want to be in a position to win next time (though by then they will probably be running the Council and so could have a track record to defend making it more difficult for them).
204/214. some more
1929 7
1931 3
1935 4
Iris Robinson has resigned as an MP. Two pending by-elections?
http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/press_03_10.htm
226, if she’s an MP and they hold her by-election won’t there be a clamour for the seat of that Labour fellow who died to be contested as well?
226. If the DUP hold the by-election, it puts pressure on Labour in NW Leics…
My guess is neither by-election will take place.
191 What need is there for an “investigation”? It sounds like a mildly bad taste drinking game to me. Typical student fare, and a change from Animals. (But then I have met people who think the Horst Wessel Lied is good pub singalong material, so my sensitivity meter might be on the blink).
196 As a former HR drone I used to reckon I could write incisive and informative prose, even if about such tedious subjects as the pay rise or the pension scheme. It was those that had to be rewritten by the corporate communications people that had the bullshit added
226 - There wont be 2, no. I doubt there will even be 1 as I cant see a by-election for the Westminster seat suiting anyone except the TUV (there wont be a by-election for the Assembly seat).
227/228 - That would be my guess. I really do hope that the DUP move the writ. I would enjoy watching the government squirm…
228 Surely it just takes any one mischievous MP to move the writ. The Labour party will then have to vote against a by-election, denying Iris’s former constituents representation…
232 - Given the Labour partys chutzpah, you can guarantee John Prescott will vote against it.
229 I must protest! As an internal communications specialist, we spent all our time removing HR/management speak from everything we could as we knew it was viewed a propaganda or a total turn-off
The rules on by-elections do need formalising.
220 It will be pumped up like mad by a certain state Broadcaster and include a newsnight special on how the Gorgon is leading the entire Solar system out of recession unlike those nasty Tories opposite. I reckon growth will be 0.1% as thats the only thing they can even slightly flog credibly and still make it look sensible. Total Bollox of course but hey! we are talking Labour here.
Expect to see a blip upwards into maybe 30 again but then reality will set in when all the credit card bills from Xmas hit the doormat a few days later and people have reflected on the repayments.
I hate Farage and UKIP, but if I were in Buckingham I would be tempted to vote for him as the lesser of two tw*ts
Bad news for Alan Johnson, this one is going to drag on, one wonders if it will become an election issue?
Gary McKinnon wins judicial review of extradition decision
A High Court judge will rule on whether Alan Johnson was wrong to allow the extradition of computer hacker Gary McKinnon after his lawyers were granted permission for judicial review.
A hearing is likely to take place in April or May with a judge to rule on whether the Home Secretary was right to decide that sending him to the US for trial would not breach his human rights.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/lawandorder/6982610/Gary-McKinnon-wins-judicial-review-of-extradition-decision.html
Sorry, if this has been posted before. But what a shocker
Immunity for MPs who repay expenses
MPs who have admitted breaking expenses rules have been offered secret Parliamentary deals to repay the money without being identified, the Daily Telegraph can disclose.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/mps-expenses/6975806/Immunity-for-MPs-who-repay-expenses.html
238 - “one wonders if it will become an election issue?”
It shouldnt.
236 “…a newsnight special on how the Gorgon is leading the entire Solar system out of recession unlike those nasty Tories opposite.”
If only Gordon could use images like this in their election leaflets.
Sooooo beautiful
http://www.yankee.us.com/images.html
TSE - Birmingham Hall Green electoral calculus 2005 calculation for seat with new boundaries:
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/calcwork.pl?seat=Birmingham%20Hall%20Green
Shadsy has both Labour and the LDs at evens but it would have to be a big swing for the LDs to win this seat unless the local Tories vote tactically for the LDs. Why are the odds so short on the LDs?
236. I truly hope your right which leads into, if its positive does brown go early to get the election out the way before the 2010 1st quarter figures ?
236 Batch File
Correct. I’ve just had Mrs Nat’s credit card bill for Xmas, and I confirm that I will NOT be voting Labour!
243. +0.1 will take us back to where we were in Sept ?
242 - Thanks Goupillion.
200. Martin Day January 13th, 2010 at 4:53 pm
That game being an MP for a week is quite interesting.
I did a really Excellent week, first class but i imagine it says that to all the MPs for a week!
241 These are worthy of Star Trek title sequences
http://www.yankee.us.com/images2.html
244 - I’ve had Mrs Eagles credit card bill for Christmas too.
I think we should start printing our own money, I mean if Gordon can do it, why cant we.
249 TSE
I already do. Always seemed sensible to me. Is there a problem with it?
I would be amazed if there are any more byelections in this Parliament.
On topic, due to the strength of the feeling among ordinary voters against parliamentarians as a whole, and the lack of detectable overwhelming enthusiasm for any major party, I would expect the independents in Blaenau Gwent and Wyre Forest to be returned and think the Greens have a good chance in Pavilion. Galloway, Griffin, Spink and assorted independents (who are not MPs already) have much less of a chance.
The betting odds above for 0-2 and 3-5 look about right to me, if I did bet at odds I’d take 3-5 simply because there’s a slightly better return.
242 - They’ve got lots of local councillor in Mosely & Kingsheath and Hall Green.
This seat is a bonkers mash up, and anything could happen.
But if the Tories are anything like 15% ahead in the Midlands they have a 5/1 chance here with the Respect/Lib Dem/Labour carve up being completely unpredictable.
Title: Financial Statistics - January 2010 FinStats Data Release
Release date: 15 January 2010
Theme: Economy | Department: Office for National Statistics | Coverage: UK
Geographic breakdown: UK and GB |
Designation: National Statistics
Summary: Contains data on public sector finance, central government revenue and expenditure, money supply and credit, banks and building societies, interest and exchange rates, financial accounts, capital issues, balance sheets and balance of payments.
234 I know, I used to keep my head down when anything propagandist got written. The last time I did a pay review for my old employer, the pay offer got written by the head of HR, the divisional director and, I have to say it, the internal propaganda people. I had to write and post a commentary a couple of days later so people could actually understand what it was about. I always wondered what was wrong with just telling the truth… I don’t really think I’m cut out for corporate HR!
250 - Apparently it’s illegal.
252. Tim - thanks Tim I think I will pass on Birmingham Hall Green.
FTPT.”The penny seems to finally have dropped that Labour need to tie together Camerons vanity, his shallowness, his incoherence on policy and the fact that he doesn’t like being laughed at.
And boy, does he not like being laughed at.
Which is why the poster was such a mistake.”
Catching up with politics and PMQ’s just now, and I was struck by one thing. Labour still don’t know how to handle David Cameron, indeed, after four years of his leadership they still continue to underestimate their opponent and allow personal dislike and prejudice to cloud their judgement. They want him to be all the things listed above because they have no positive alternative to a more substantive opponent otherwise. Indeed as Starkey might say, ‘the Tories have David Cameron, and we in Labour on the other hand, have Gordon Brown’. They so desperately need that poster to be a mistake you can almost hear the wailing in the background. If this is how they react to one poster, what will they be like by the end of the GE campaign?
Red faced, shallow, airbrushed? As we continue to find out repeatedly, there is no plan B or wonderful strategic vision lying gathering dust in a bottom draw in Downing Street. Either to advance the Labour cause, or even to hit Cameron and the Tory party over the head with if all else fails. And neither does there seem to be any money to launch their own pre GE campaign. So what are we left with? Just watching them try to mount a rear guard response while Cameron continues to set the agenda day in and day out right up until the election is called. Not sure how much that will motivate and enthuse the Labour troops, never mind the electorate.
Its the same old Gordon, same old tactics, same old attacks. It didn’t work last time because it didn’t resonate with the public, and it ain’t going to work this time either for exactly the same reasons. Dave isn’t a posh Etonian Chameleon, and if no one in Labour can get to grips with that, and they are now reliant on a Dennis Skinner red faced plan. They are sunk.
Brown gets flustered and loses his temper easily at PMQ’s, so now its Dave gets red faced and doesn’t like being laughed at. Its juvenile, pathetic and not a little sad to be honest. Why must they continue to try and transfer all the inherent weaknesses of their own leader, party, strategy, and policy vacuum onto the opposition?
Remember Mike Smithson’s golden rule about focusing on Cameron, and the effect his increased exposure in the media has in the polls?
255 Bugger - time to send the colour photocopier back
240 Why ever not, Neil? Why shouldn’t we vote on the performance of the Home Secretary in office, and on the Government’s extradition laws? Both are political issues, and I see no reason why the voter should not pass judgement.
221.From memory Bunnco could be a 4-way marginal. I suspect he may have been too influenced by the local election results which significantly exaggerate Green support at a Parliamentary election. It is quite clear that the LibDems have lost a lot of ground since 2005 - so much so that Clarke might even increase his majority as a result of his opposition being more divided this year.
241 Plato My study has several pictures that the Hubble telescope took. They are really beautiful.
They include this pic, the most famous of them all “The pillars of creation”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/1987449.stm
(first pic you see)
The new telescope thats just been put into orbit will produce even more fascinating pictures.
What is more mind boggling is that they represent how things were billions of years ago. What is it like today???
251. I concur with that.
btw, what have you got planned between now and the election, Robert?
211. The Wells notional for the new Hall Green seat is -
Labour: 16799 (38%)
Liberal Democrat: 12608 (28.5%)
Conservative: 7892 (17.8%)
Other: 6931 (15.7%)
Majority: 4191 (9.5%)
Which does indeed suggest potential for a quirky result here
258 - Can I borrow it. My minimum payment this month is over a £1,000.
http://antwrp.gsfc.nasa.gov/apod/archivepix.html
It’s basically 1 (usually big or very big) image a day from NASA. Usually they’re spacey, but sometimes it’ll be a starry night scene, or something else.
AWESOME!!
http://tinyurl.com/ybo2ev3
166
Did you do
6+3= 9
9 * 100 = 900
900 + 50 + 950
75/25 =3
950 + 3 = 953
(I just popped in, honest!)
267 - Yes, that’s what I did.
266, haha. I’m glad Harris isn’t my MP. It’d give me quite the dilemma as to who to vote for.
264 AWESOME!!
257. ChristinaD
Maguire thinks it’s working
http://blogs.mirror.co.uk/maguire/2010/01/underdog-brown.html
252 The Conservatives have almost zero chance in the new Hall Green seat , in the local elections in 2006/2007/2008 they consistently polled fewer than 15% of the vote . With the split opposition of LibDems and Salma Yaqoob , I would wager real money on Labour hanging on . If for any reason she did not stand , then I would wager on a LibDem gain .
257. I hadn’t noticed a Cameron doesn’t like being laughed at, but it’s believable. Mind you which politicians do go in for that? Boris maybe!!
I’ll nominate £10 on the Tory in Hall Green at 16/1 as my second bet in the tipsters competition.
269 - I don’t think it would make much difference in his seat. IIRC it’s fairly safe.
255 - I used to attend a pub from time to time which was frequented by a gent who had famously done significant time for forging bank notes. The staff used to mention this all the time and were warned by their bosses to take enormous care to check every note passed over the bar. But the man himself saved potential embarrassment by always paying in shrapnel.
Anyway, after a while he stopped coming in. It transpired he had been arrested and charged with forging pound coins and had been passing them across the counter for years.
271 Toilets, Gordon isn’t “the underdog” - he’s the Prime Minister. He’s supposed to be the guy holding all the aces.
274 I will give you 20-1 .
Press statement from Gary Mckinnon campaign is bad news for Alan Johnson.
MCKINNON GRANTED JUDICIAL REVIEW
Mr Justice Mitting at the High Court today granted Gary McKinnon permission for a Judicial Review of the Home Secretary’s decision not to halt McKinnon’s extradition on the basis of the new medical evidence before him.
He said McKinnon’s application raises two issues
Mr Justice Mitting’s considered both issues to be arguable and that if the answers to both issues were affirmative, then it is arguable that the Home Secretary’s decision to extradite Mr McKinnon would be unlawful.
257 Labour’s projection onto Cameron is risible. If everything in the garden was rosy and there was little to debate, *perhaps* the playground attacks on Cameron would add a teeny-weeny bit to Labour.
Given that UK plc is in the crap, this stuff looks pathetic, juvenile and WTF-esque.
I’m relieved that the Tories are way ahead otherwise I’d be worried that HMG may be re-elected on this sort of cobblers.
I can’t ever recall a time when the PM not only referred to voters as ‘flat-earthers’ but led on class war and prejudice on excellent education - oh and referred 3x to the political battles of 30 yrs ago at PMQs.
252. Mark - thanks I will keep an eye on whether Salma Yaqoob stands or not. Is there any reason you know which would indicate she might stand down? Otherwise why are the LDs’ odds so short?
276 2% of all pound coins in circulation are forged .
248. These are worthy of Star Trek title sequences
“Politics: the final frontier. These are the voyages of the starship Political Betting. Its five-year mission: to explore strange, new constituencies, to seek out new opinion polls and new prospective parliamentary candidates; to boldly go where no psephologist has gone before.”
282, rampant counterfeiting, or early examples of Brown practising for QE?
263. The People’s Forecaster
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tjmgaOdUE7G6D-Z5KkGK3bQ&gid=8
currently has Hall Green as
Con 27.70
Lab 31.63
LD 23.62
Oth 17.05
Chances
Con 32%
Lab 43%
LD 19%
Oth 6%
make of that what you will
279. All Gordo needs is for this to be heard on 26th Jan or another earthquake etc and his last bullet (GDP) will jam in the barrell.
281 The LibDems have outpolled Labour in the local elections every year but not by much . I have no information that indicates she might not stand except that the state of Respect is rather unhealthy to say the least .
287 - “the state of Respect is rather unhealthy to say the least”
You doubt she can afford the deposit or something?!
283
278 - Mark, I don’t think the tipsters comp allows us to decide our own odds!.
If I was pricing up that seat (with the proviso that Yaqoob stands, and I believe thats actually more likely than Galloway standing) I’d go
Evs Labour.
6/4 Lib Dem.
5/1 Tory.
12/1 Respect
Leaving party politics aside, I quite like Nigel Farage and think he would be an asset to parliament, a Green Party MP or two may shake up the two party system a bit and I’d love Dai Davies to win so that the parties are again reminded that sexism is always wrong.
However I can’t stand Galloway and Griffin, they’re a pair of bullies and bigots and I’d love for them both to be humiliated, not just beaten, but properly humiliated. Given a forced choice between seeing either Galloway evicted or Harman, Brown and Balls, I’d have to pick the Saddam lover, although it would be close.
Can’t see Spink holding Castle Point. Used to live there, work there. Tory machine is good, and it’s top brass has it’s collective knife into Spink
271.”Treating David Cameron with contempt is Gordon Brown’s successful new tactic, an unusually aggressive Premier mocking the Tory leader to death at PMQs. Now he’s finally got his head around running as an underdog, Brown’s learning to be a mongrel biting and snapping at his foe.”
ScottP, thanks for that, I was laughing before I reached the end of this bit. Its absolutely priceless, take Cameron, PMQ’s and Tory out of the paragraph and stick Blair’s name in instead, and what is left? Same old Gordon biting and snapping at his foe, where is the new tactics?
260 221 RE Norwich South
My sister and her husband live just outside Norwich and are fully fledged, ozone-friendly, biodegradeable fart powered greenies. FWIW they are confident of a “good” result but less confident of an outright win. I am not sure what Bunnco said but I suspect they are behind but can win.
Also Labour loyalists must be really pissed off with Charles Clarke-voting Green to get rid of the lobaly challenged one should be an appealing prospect for many I would have thought?
Good summary of the leaders ratings in the Populus poll by Wells:
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/2414
257 - Christina.
Making people laugh at Cameron is by far the best strategy.
He’s funny AND he doesn’t like being laughed at, not a good combination, hence the ambarrassed giveaway red face.
Its why the Chaufffeur and the briefcase is still universally remembered.
The shallowness on policy can then be draped around his neck.
Doppel-dip in Germany
…officials there said they believe growth stagnated in the final three months of 2009…
…The officials wouldn’t say anything more but my guess would be that the ending of subsidies for car purchases played a role…
http://blogs.ft.com/money-supply/2010/01/13/german-gloom/
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/01/13/125526/doppel-dip/
296 - “He’s funny AND he doesn’t like being laughed at”
Tim that’s most politicians, and I thought that Brown was meant to be all about policies rather than personality, a serious man for serious times and all that nonsense. If Brown goes down this road it could backfire badly.
266, haha. I’m glad Harris isn’t my MP. It’d give me quite the dilemma as to who to vote for.
by Morris Dancer January 13th, 2010 at 5:48 pm
I do live in the constituency MD, his regular £400 food claims during summer recess make it pretty easy for me NOT to vote for him. He’ll retain his seat and keep us all amused but not with my help I’m afraid.
Norwich South upthread…
Norwich South is a 4-way marginal and the winner will ride-home on 30pc or less. So it’s a lottery.
I agree with Justin that the LD’s have fallen away since 2005, but there’s a strong anti-Labour feeling so the Greens should pick-up the soft LibDem vote and Anti-labour polls.
The long-shot is that, in so doing, the Anti-tory vote splits 3-ways and Antony Little comes up the middle.
It’s a lottery but Charles will do well to defend his 3000 majority in the circumstances and the betting value is with the Greens.
A tight fight with a slim majority for the winner.
298 And don’t forget that he’s shy, doesn’t use his family as props and was brought up to never tell a lie.
And had never had private dental treatment or worn make-up - oh…
296 - Except there is one flaw with that strategy. One thing I was taught at uni and at work, a person delivering a message must have credibility in the eyes of the audience. If they don’t, people wont listen.
299 I didn’t know he’d been a recess piglet - well that’s marked him down in my book.
He talks a lot of sense, but I’ve no time for those who took £400pcm to feed themselves as if they didn’t have to eat already - and during recess!!
278 - Mark Senior.
Mark, if you seriously want to lay Birm Hall Green at 20-1, and if tim does not want to back, I would happily take the odds.
Any amount. You can’t go wrong following tim the shrewdie.
296. “Making people laugh at Cameron is by far the best strategy.”
No chance of Labour defending their record, then?
302- exactly, Brown accusing someone else of being shallow and focusing on spin is very funny, I can’t see it working with genuine swing voters.
296 tim, you’re funny too and dislike being laughed at when you make a particularly stupid post (which isn’t uncommon these days). Are you Dave?
Can I just say that the bloke in the Microsoft advert at the top of this page is really off-putting - smug isn’t a strong enough adjective.
296 - This from the clown Brown who assured us that there is enough grit to cope, I was snowed in again like many, I cannot repeat what Brown was been called today, his promises/words mean nothing, he has no credibility.
306 - I’ve often said, Cameron is lucky in facing Gordon Brown as an opponent.
There could be footage on the internet of Cameron having an 0rgy with some hookers and using Colombian dancing powder, and most people would say oh it’s another smear from McBride
In Norwich South, Clarke could finish -9% and still win. Now -9% is a plausible result, so Clarke can’t be ruled out. Equally, for the Greens to win, they probably have to quadruple their vote, which is possible in a by-e, but I think a bit of a stretch in one go at a GE.
It’s surely gonna be one of the seats I’ll be analysing the result of.
re 202 train home? Two of my colleagues from Birmingham were meant to be in meetings in London today.
303 - He talks a lot of sense, but I’ve no time for those who took £400pcm to feed themselves as if they didn’t have to eat already - and during recess!!
by Plato January 13th, 2010 at 6:12 pm
I wrote to him and his reply basically just said , all within the rules.
I put him in the just doesn’t get it column.
Saying that, I’ve just looked at the June locals and Labour got battered nearly everywhere and the Greens won by a distance. (relatively)
193, 219
It’s the “spiral of silence” adjustment. The assumption is that the “don’t know/refuse” brigade will break preferentially for how they voted last time. It tends to act as a dampener of swing and effectively the 1% adjustment from Con to Lab is an assumption of “Shy Labourites”.
I personally think that in elections with high swing, it’s less useful (ICM were the only ones to use it in the 1997 election, the only one with a high swing since this methodology was pioneered) and the adjustment made turned out to be rather too large (from recollection, the unadjusted figures implied a 16% Lab lead, the adjusted figures a 10% Lab lead and the real lead was 13%).
280, 293. There is a lot of wish-is-father-to-the-thought going on here. You simply can’t call Brown’s attack on Cameron “playground” stuff while ignoring Cameron’s “hold up your hands” gag. They were as bad as each other, and Brown was actually genuinely funny.
Brown was so miserable to start with that when Cameron sat down after two questions I genuinely thought that the reason might be that Labour had asked him to lay off because Brown was ill. If Cameron had stuck to four more boring questions, or just stuck to two, the session would have left everyone with the impression of Brown as a broken man. Instead by trying to be funny Cameron turned Gordon’s flipflop switch from depressed to manic, and ended up with a draw. This was an unforced error because it is Cameron who dictates what the contest is about. He is being shockingly badly advised.
btw There is a comment on the Toilets blog which points the way to an answer to the “red face” issue. Excessive blushing is in most cases hereditary. Therefore we have now established beyond any doubt that Brown, and tim, thibk it right to sneer at people because of the skin colour they have inherited from their parents.
So, tim, just to confirm: you think it right to taunt people about the colour of skin they happen to inherit. Yes or no?
“At the last election there were three of them - George Galloway; Richard Taylor in Wyre Forest as well as Dai Davies”
It was Peter Law, who won in 2005 actually. Dai Davies replaced him after his sad death two years later. His wife Trish became the Assembly Member.
Chris A - he called to say he made the 16:30 from Euston, and his flight hasn’t been cancelled yet, he didn’t want to chance having to spend another night in London.
re 285 Rod that spreadsheet seems to be missing Birmingham Perry Barr.
Hat-tip to Martin Day for the link at 200 - it’s a brilliant initiative. I’ve only had time to try one day of it, but at first try it really does get the ‘feel’ of being an MP right, as well as having a bit of wit to spice it up.
308? Bloke? Looks like a girl to me!
316 Sorry Mr Treader - have to disagree on this one.
Making personal references to Cameron’s skin colour is one thing and frankly so what if he gets pink around the gills, asking his own side to put their hands up in a vote of support was entirely different.
Cameron led the Labour MPs right up the garden path with that one so whatever they did looked stupid - put your hand up and you’re manipulated by the Opposition, don’t put your hand up and you’re not supporting Gordon.
241 Plato
Its images like that that truly make me catch my breath.
So little we know really but the photos are awesome indeed. Great link yet again. Thanks
It’s interesting seeing the efforts to keep the Mercian treasure in Staffordshire.
Some years ago, I don’t think any one in England would have questioned the London-centrism that assumed anything worth while should automatically be in the British Museum.
In the (much) longer term this may well result in political consequences in England.
319. no, someone’s already declared it as a Tory gain.
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tjmgaOdUE7G6D-Z5KkGK3bQ&gid=4
so it gets removed from the “Forecast” sheet.
321 It turns into Arnold Rimmer’s smugger brother if you wait long enough
324, I think it’s hard to call, but as a Yorkshireman with a strong sense of both country and county I’m glad they may well stay out of London. It has too much of our cultural buildings and artefacts as it is.
re 325 well I can live in hope
326. Plato. Oh do you mean the advert along the right-hand side? Yeah I see him now!
296- The problem is that Brown is THE ultimate subject of disbelieving laughter at the moment. It permeates popular culture even. Every comedy show on TV or political aside has an anti-Brown quip etc. It’s exactly as it was in the mid-1990s with the Tories in general, but here accentuated through the figure-head of the PM. Pomposity and ego are sniggered at in Britain, yes, but this is not something that can be tapped into as part of an election winning strategy. The shallowness of Brown’s attack is matched by his oft-repeated, cringe-worthy lists in which the Tories have been ‘wrong on everything’. This is the sort of black and white politics that never works. People laugh at Brown getting nearly everything wrong as PM, so they don’t trust his judgement. Brown’s line is no more effective than that used by the Tories against Blair in ‘97-’he’s a shallow salesman hiding a dangerous party’. It didn’t work in ‘97 as it just exposed the lack of coherent Tory policies to win that election. There was silence on the Labour benches when the PM tried to use DC’s admission of ‘messing up’ on Marriage Tax to attack him today - it seemed a bizarre attack on honesty in politics. Blair, like Cameron, was a master at damage limitation. Brown is the polar opposite.
‘Why shouldn’t I just vote for the new guy?’ asks the electorate. Labour has provided no clear answer yet. The Tories are not under alot of pressure here. The momentum for change can only be halted by big Labour ideas. None have been presented since the bottled election of 2007.
I thought Cammo hit back well today with his show of hands on using Gordon’s photo on election literature. Brown’s repetition of the airbrushed lines to diminishing Labour laughter exposes his difficulty in thinking on his feet. He can’t rely on fed-lines to last in 90 minute TV debates.
330, Cameron’s responses were markedly improved on prior weeks, however, he’s still got too much flim-flam. Shorter, more focused questions with an eye on detail will sink Brown.
323 They are amazing, aren’t they? I live about 5 miles from Herstmonceux Observatory and keep meaning to buy a telescope as the night skies are pitch black.
Have loads of star maps and it’s always a reassuring pleasure to come home and say good-evening to Orion and the rest.
Seeing the scale of the universe is incredible stuff that most city peeps miss out on due to light pollution. If they could see what I can, astronomy or plain star-gazing would surely be more popular.
328. Someone thinks UKIP are going to win Epsom & Ewell.
The gains are not fixed: someone else could come along with a different result.
Perhaps as we approach the election I will calculate the median forecast for each seat, but I do need some more forecasts..
http://www.titanictown.plus.com/
Lord Turnbull:
“Despite his misgivings about the policy process, Lord Turnbull said he still believed it had been “worthwhile” to remove Saddam Hussein.
It was clear that Saddam had lied about his intentions in order not to demonstrate weakness to Iran and he planned to rebuild his chemical and biological weapons capacity once sanctions were lifted.
The British people must be apprised of this to counter the prevailing view that the deaths of UK soldiers had been “in vain”.”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8457292.stm
333 You’re kidding? Who’s the candidate?!
332. Plato have you noticed Mars along the border of Leo and Cancer?
Reports that 100k have died in Haiti
335 - Tim, he’s standing on the Grayling out platform
40 “I am still surprised he hasn’t gone for one of the Stoke seats. The BNP are stronger there than pretty much anywhere.”
I think he’s called it right. He personally wants to be standing in the most (relatively) high-profile seat where the native population is currently in the process of being ethnically cleansed by cultural marxists to destroy national identity and cohesion as per Gramsci’s instructions.
334 - Gabble.
Even the Iraqis are Laughing at Labour
http://order-order.com/2010/01/13/even-the-iraqis-are-laughing-at-labour/
335. “You’re kidding?”
No, I think the person who made the “forecast” is…
I see UKIP’s Frank Maloney challenged Griffen to a boxing match with the loser having to stand down from the contest. Oh, if only.
322. Cameron didn’t lose; he may even have won on points. But with a different approach he would have annihilated Brown.
Still, I haved developed a new and conclusive proof of tim’s inherent racism; so a good day on the whole.
336 No, have missed that. Do you have a link that doesn’t involve astrology
After a lot of analysis of various polls and taking into account the variations throughout England, Wales and Scotland my findings (lol) suggest the following:
Con - 430
Lab - 131
LD - 57
SNP - 7
HOWEVER, although I tried to be as precise as possible I do not think the resut will be anywhere near like this (why did I bother?). I think Labour will be on between 180-220 whilst the Conservatives will be on around 350ish. But the swings will be all over the place and the Others will win a record numbers of seats also.
341 Who? There are so many posts linked to your’s I haven’t a clue.
340. TSE
Looks like Lewis had a point:
“More Iraqis fear unemployment than security issues, YouGov Siraj research report reveals”
http://www.albawaba.com/en/countries/Iraq/259181
First link I could find in Google:
http://homepage.ntlworld.com/mjpowell/Astro/Naked-Eye-Planets/Mars-Path-2009-10.htm
And yes Mars is bright enough from suburban Ilford!
346. dunno, the system is entirely anonymous…
348 FAB - will have a look-see
Mr Andrew “Live Blog” Sparrow did quite a good summary on Lord Turnbull’s evidence:
“4.53pm: Here are the key points from the second half of the session.
* Turnbull said he believed Blair was originally a “regime changer” and that Blair was only persuaded in 2002 about the necessity of involving the UN. Turnbull said that, in view of the way Blair always stressed that he only wanted to disarm Saddam as the war approached, he could not understand why Blair told Fern Britton last month that he would still have wanted to remove Saddam if he had known Iraq had no WMD. (See 4.19pm)
* He said that getting rid of Saddam was “a worthwhile thing to have done” - because Saddam intended to resume his WMD programme following the lifting of sanctions. (See 4.36pm)
* He hinted that there was some doubt about Blair’s commitment to involving the UN. He said he thought Blair was sincere about not just using the UN as a pretext. But then Turnbull added: “Maybe I’m too trusting.” (See 4.25pm)
* After the invasion the British were put in a position where they had responsibility for what happened in southern Iraq, but not the power to influence it, Turnbull said. (See 4.07pm)
* He said Clare Short was entitled to complain in her book about the way cabinet government operated under Blair. (See 3.38pm)
* The government was going to hold a “lessons learnt” exercise in 2003, but shelved that because the time was not deemed appropriate. (See 4.12pm)
* Turnbull said Robin Cook was “absolutely spot on” when it came to assessing whether Saddam really had WMD. (see 3.32pm) Other ministers accepted what they were told in a series of special briefings provided by John Scarlett, but Cook - perhaps because, as a former foreign secretary, he was used to dealing with MI6, was more sceptical.”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/blog/2010/jan/13/iraq-war-inquiry-iraq
He also normally picks out some good quotes. It’s well worth a read.
About the astronomy pictures and specifically the APOD (Astronomy Picture Of the Day from NASA):
There’s a snazzy little app here that (as long as you’re connected to broadband) automatically updates your wallpaper to whatever today’s APOD happens to be (so a different picture every day). I’ve been using it for a few years with no problems, and it’s always nice to see what my computer shows me when I boot up every morning
350. Oh, and Saturn is also not too far away in Virgo, though you’ll have to stay up into the small hours to see it properly this month. Opposition date is late March.
http://homepage.ntlworld.com/mjpowell/Astro/Naked-Eye-Planets/Saturn-Path.htm
352 Once again, PB posters show how diverse their interests are
*still think Theresa May dresses like a Star Trek extra…*
Guido on Gordo….
http://order-order.com/2010/01/13/guy-news-pmqs-special-hoon-hewitt-hilton-harman/
This PMQ nonsense has now gone too far. It is the job of the opposition to hold HMG to account for policies and outcomes, and PMQs should be part of that task.
In trying to make the Prime Minster look silly or weak makes the leader of the opposition look shallow, unconcerned with what is really going on and, frankly, pathetic. If Cameron cannot think of sensible, serious questions to ask he should just stay quiet or better yet give way to someone who can (God knows there are enough issues at the moment).
However, by the same token, for the Prime Minister to refuse to answer the questions asked of him but instead to try and make jokes about the questioner’s appearance just confirms that he is unfit for office.
The whole thing has descended into farce and simply adds to the impression held, with good reason, by many that politicians as a class are disgusting low-lifes, who care for nothing but their own enrichment and who seek power for its own sake. PMQs now do nothing for the dignity of parliament nor do they contribute to good governance.
353 but Saturn’s rings are invisible (edge-on to us) atm.
Not that that matters to naked eye viewers.
Bookies’ best prices - Brighton Pavilion
Grn EVS Lad, SB, VC
Con 9/5 WH
Lab 5/1 PP
LD 66/1 Lad, PP
356 HurstLlama
I may have read better posts here - but not many. Well said.
Lloyd Evans:
“The Tory leader will be glad that when he sat down after his sixth slug he wasn’t greeted by Labour cries of ‘More, more!’ That’s something. But, given that this time last week Brown had his head in a noose, Cameron should have done better.”
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/5703483/an-energetic-contest.thtml
Maguire’s analysis of Brown linked to at 271 is fascinating. As much as I adore tim of PB.com, I’ve always thoughts there’s something of the yapping terrier about him. And on the day that Gordon became a fully signed-up tim-ite, Maguire makes a similar observation about Gordon:
‘Brown’s learning to be a mongrel biting and snapping at his foe.’
You’ve got to feel for Gordon though. Once you were a political colossus and master strategist whose giddying intellect soared to the heavens; now you’re an irritating little yappy dog, mounting Dave’s slender and expensively trousered leg. Poor Gordon. These days, even his most loyal champions regard him as a third rater with annoyance value.
Birmingham Hall Green: I put some money on the Tories in this seat at 16/1 some time back. At the time, I did so as a good bet on the chance of a VIPA-esque landslide. Now I think it has chances even if the Tories just secure a decent overall majority, given their relative strength in the Midlands.
Norwich South: a lottery. I took Bunnco’s advice and backed the Tories and the Greens as value bets at the time. Charles Clarke will be lucky if he holds his seat - I expect his vote share to drop a fair bit, especially since he seems to have alienated some of his constituency party members. The Lib Dems seem to be going backwards in the seat. I’d rather bet on relative outsiders with momentum than favourites that are seriously drifting.
333. UKIP winning epsom and ewell. I live in the constituency and Chris Grayling is very popular - his majority has increased since he was elected.
While it might be in tim’s dreams Chris has as much chance of being beaten as labour have of increasing their majority (ie pretty much none at all)
361-I will say (and I forgot to add in my earlier post at 330) that I think Brown does have undoubted talents and I wish him well. I just don’t think he’s cut out to be PM.
“Auction shows appetite for gilts still exists”
http://www.citywire.co.uk/professional/-/news/wealth-management/content.aspx?ID=376435
127. Shadsy
Some Independents and their BEST prices
Blaenau G: Dai Davies 8/11 Lad, WH
Brighton Pav: Greens EVS Lad, SB, VC
Castle Point: Bob Spink 3/1 WH (9/4 Lad)
Wyre F: Doctor 11/8 Lad
Bethnal G & Bow: Respect 11/4 Lad
Buckingham: UKIP 4/1 PP (3/1 Lad)
Norwich S: Greens 8/1 SB, WH (4/1 Lad)
Barking: BNP 9/2 Lad, VC
Luton S: Rantzen 6/1 Lad, VC
Poplar & L: Respect 7/1 Lad
Last year some friends and I drove across Salisbury Plain at midnight. We got out to look at the sky. Totally dark night, totally clear sky. A million stars and for the first time in my life I saw the Milky Way. It’s a greatly misused word, but for once ‘awesome’ was the only way to describe it.
366. Surely the odds involving Galloway are seriously awry?
“…the respected think-tank [NIESR] believes the trough of output was rather earlier in August and the economy has grown 1.6 per cent between August and December, not bad.”
http://blogs.ft.com/money-supply/2010/01/13/the-uk-recession-appears-over/
Moderate, as predicted.
354/357:
Did you know that during 2010, although too faint to be seen in anything smaller than a medium-sized telescope, Neptune completes its first orbit of the Sun since its discovery in 1846?
359: oldnat at 19:09
Thank you, Oldnat. As it come from you I count that as praise indeed.
368. The chance of him taking P&L must be better than Respect holding BG&B without him?
0 independents in 2010
Caroline Lucas 3rd behind Con and Lab in Brighton Pavilion
124 RE Lib Dem seat losses from E Pickles.I take this estimate of 30 or so losses very seriously.Eric knows what a huge effort is going into the ground war in Lib/Dem Tory marginals.Make no mistake there is also a longer term reason for trying to wipe out half the Lib Dems.A big defeat would make them a less credible repository for the huge anti govermnet swing from the poisoned chalice bequeathed by Brown.
263 - Epsom and Ewell has a long history of electing second rate backbenchers.
Which is Chris Graylings destiny.
I have been busy and just watched PMQs. Look at Brown’s face as he sits down after responding - no answers of course - to Cameron’s last question, and then tell me it was good in anyway for Brown.
He looks crushed.
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/01/13/can-brown-avoid-being-dragged-into-this/comment-page-2/#comment-1383794
At 23:50 in
356 HurstLlama. I agree wholeheartedly - and you phrase it very well, if I may say so.
368 - Its the odds in BG & B that are awry.
356. Wholeheartedly agree, it would be nice to be looking at two men who looked as if it matters to them that the country’s finances are fecked into the middle of next week. Cameron doesn’t realise how quickly and pointlessly he is vacating the moral high ground.
334. So British soldiers died to stop Saddam resuming a WMD program when sanctions were lifted, when we could have just never lifted the sanctions.
Really heartening.
374 As I posted earlier this is not a new comment from Pickles but a rehashed one from last August .
369. “Moderate, as predicted.”
Gabble you really are as thick as pig sh*t, here’s what they also said.
“According to NIESR’s data, GDP fell by 4.8% in 2009.
“This is a bigger fall than in any year of the Great Depression and is Britain’s biggest contraction since 1921.”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8457266.stm
376. I agree, Brown did not do well at all today. His going on about DC’s face colour was puerile and personal - is this all Labour has to offer after 13 years in power? If it’s not the school DC went to it’s the colour of his face. Pathetic, and an insult to the British public given all of the problems we face.
DC’s questions regarding salt and Darling’s new cuts agenda were entirely reasonable given Brown’s previous utterances and his inability to answer the cuts question said it all. As did the show of hands when DC asked about Brown’s picture on election leaflets.
382. glw
GDP contraction during 2009:
4.8% UK
5.0% Germany
HurstLlama.
What this country needs is a revolution. We haven’t had one since the Civil War, and we pride ourselves on that fact, but I fear we have become one of those eccentric impoverished upperclass old biddies that hoards everything and never throws anything out and has a dead cat behind the chaise longue and mould inside her porcelain teapot.
We don’t notice the smell because we live with it day in day out, but occasionally we come home and hmm… ewww…. then we make some more Darjeeling with a dash of gin and forget about it.
But the time has come. A spring clean. Every country needs one, once in a while, when you sweep away the rotten old rubbish and start afresh.
So that’s what we should do.
They should all go. The entire governing classes: all MPs and ministers (of course), but likewise: all top civil servants, the heads of most state institutions, the top two ranks of the BBC, half the chiefs of staff, the various quangolords and NHS barons and local authority boyars - all of them, the whole damn bloodsucking lot of them.
They are verminous. And MPs are the bubonic fleas on the backs of the public sector plague rats. Exterminate. Then Fumigate. And then Renew.
However, I’d keep the Queen, cause she’s cool, and the two young Princes, cause they embody hope. I’d keep Davina McCall and Jordan’s tits as the three other national institutions to survive the Terror.
All else must go.
383 - Brown wasn’t even listening to the questions
On at least three occasions, he was asked about the budget deficit - and three times his response was about debt. I am no economist - but even I know the difference between those two.
Pathetic
Looking carefully at Cameron’s face during his exchanges at PMQ’s, I think the look he has as Gordon makes his jibes about “the poster” is one of withering piteous distate. “This tw@ has absolutley no respect for the office of Prime Minister. How in God’s name has he still got the job?”
Blaenau Gwent; Davies to hold on
Brighton Pavillion; too close to call, as the election gets closer the main parties will move up on Lucas
Castle Point: Bob Spink will poll well as an Ind, but Conservative Gain
Wyre Forest: Conservative Gain
Bethnal Green & Bow: Labour Gain
Buckingham: Speaker hold
Norwich South: Conservative Gain …
Barking: No chance for BNP
Luton South: Rantzen no chance - she chose the wrong seat; Conservative Gain
Poplar & Limehouse: Galloway’s star is fading
So 1 certainly, 2 maybe - I can’t see it making 3 or more.
Actually Blaenau Gwent is not as clear cut as it first looks….
Dai Davies was elected on the back of a very high personal vote for Peter Law, but he has not set the place on fire. He has been criticised as the invisible man while his Assembly counterpart - Trish Law allegedely spends more time at the bingo hall than the Senedd.
More importantly the Peoples Voice group which they were all part of has badly splintered. and isntead of taking off in neghbouring valleys as originally envisaged, they have degenerated into farce = In Torfaen their leader has been deselected as a candidate and is standing as an independent independent againts the official PV candidate who has also been deselected.
I think that Independent/PV qnd Labour are now very much neck and neck qnd I think thqt the 8/11 odds are over optimistic
384. Gabble, I know you just post this stuff about a *moderate* recession to wind up the Tories, cause you know full well that any recession of this magnitude - the longest and deepest in almost a hundred years - leaving us with the biggest deficit in the world - could never be called “moderate”.
But you should know one thing. People have lost jobs and homes in this recession (friends of mine included). Lives have been permanently damaged. The future of the country has been pawned.
So your little jokes, besides being unfunny, simply make you look like a heartless and nasty c*nt.
Just thought you should know that. For future reference, like.
384. “382. glw
GDP contraction during 2009:
4.8% UK
5.0% Germany”
So? Does that mean the UK’s fall is moderate? What bit of “This is a bigger fall than in any year of the Great Depression and is Britain’s biggest contraction since 1921” do you need explaining to you?
You must be the only person on the face of the earth who considers the financial crisis to be moderate.
384 Gabble
would you like to forecast which economy will recover faster ?
Just a little news about a by election being held in NI, in the sectarian cockpit constituency thatr is Craigavon.
This is a unionist punch up, for a seat currently previously filled by the TUV. The DUP have not put anyone up but theres a feeling that the UUP will knock the TUV out.
If they do it may reflect something of a weakness about the TUV..its a one man personality party, he being Jim Allister.
Count tomorrow should have a result in a jiffy since the turnout will stink.
262, RodCrosby: thanks, all I have planned is the continuation of the regional constituency prospects articles in Total Politics (which are in their book-form guide to the 2010 general election anyway), though Dale’s people may ask for the odd extra article, e.g. on seats which may buck the trends.
390. SeanT
Unemployment:
11.9% tories
7.9% Labour
Your post is pure self delusion.
#365 Gilt auction Wednesday
…Today’s 2049 dated £2.2 billion 4-1/4% gilt was 1.81 times oversubscribed - still below historically normal subscription levels of more than two times…
It’s clearly not a gilt auction failure, but it’s not a big hit either.
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/01/13/125261/gilt-auction-wednesday/
391. This is a unusual recession though, they are a great number of people who do not feel any worse off today then they did this time last year or even the year before.
I am saving over £140 a month off my mortgage repayments thats a heck of a lot of money spare into the household bills, and then they are the people who either work in the public sector or for companies that have the public sector as their main client.
These people are going to suffer alright, but there is a time lag, its going to be another twelve months before the ‘recession in the public sector’ really begins to bite.
A way of thinking of the knock on consequences, especially up in the north of england which is heavily dependent on public employment, is the way that the housing collapse impacted. When the big building firms, Persimmon, Barrets etc stopped building and abandoned sites, you had sparkies, plumbers, builders, labourers, gardeners, local supply firms etc all of a sudden lose three of their biggest customers.
Tens of thousands of people who had been earning a good living for fifteen years or more, found themselves with nothing to do, because of the decisions of a small number of big companies.
138.
“Wish I had a bum that still looked like hers”
I have occasional qualified possession of such. Despite a peculiar political allegiance, it improves my global perspective no end!
391. glw: “You must be the only person on the face of the earth who considers the financial crisis to be moderate.”
The financial crisis wasn’t moderate and under the tories would have led to a full-scale depression in the UK.
356
HL
You put it very well
Agree 100%..
395. Oh yes, very funny. Ha hahaha. Hah.
A friend of mine is facing repossession, and has been out of work for six months. He has a nine month old baby. I have several friends in the same situation.
Moderate???
You are a lying sack of sh1te. And you know it. And you don’t care. Just as long as you annoy Tories, eh? Well done, old boy, well done.
390.
” a *moderate* recession to wind up the Tories,”
I thought he was talking about something which Dave Khammereon soon won’t be able to ‘airbrush.
398. You are playing with words. Do you genuinely consider the recession to be moderate? No winds up, just what you think for the record.
374. Rogerh - quite right. Emasculating the Lib Dems is a critical part of the Tory strategy for the medium-term. As I’ve posted before, I expect the effort to dislodge them will continue for 2-3 elections, taking advantage of retirements.
400. SeanT: “Just as long as you annoy Tories, eh?”
“Unemployment is a price worth paying”
That’s what you tories like to say, isn’t it? How would your friend respond to that?
Labour have faced upto its responsibility to minimise unemployment using the virtuous debt. They should be proud of their record, so far.
29 - “and plus he’s a wargamer, which means he gets my eternal respect. Us geeks have to stick together.”
Eagles, your a wargamer too?
395.
Restructuring the economy from an overbloated monolith to lean sustainable growth with a projected budget surplus: Tories.
Presiding over an economic bubble and giving us the greatest budget deficit in peacetime: Labour.
395,
Gabble, 11.9% Tories
Citation, please.
401 SeanT
Gabble and his mates have been living off salary rises, fat pensions and non-jobs in the public sector. Their recession hasn’t arrived yet, but will this year whoever is in power.
398. Your prime minister designed the rules under which the banks operated. Your prime minister boasted he had ended boom and bust.
Your prime minister claimed we were “best placed” to withstand the downturn. Your prime minister failed to save the money during the boom so we would have something to fall back on in the bust.
Your prime minister wasted billions on pointless wars. Your prime minister claimed there would never be another housing bubble. Your prime minister has given us the biggest deficit of any major nation IN THE WORLD. Your prime minister has led us into the longest and deepest recession in 80 years.
Your prime minister wasted trillions in taxes for no obvious gain. Your prime minister has given us the biggest debt in memory. Your prime minister still boasts that he invest money even as his own chancellor admits we are facing the biggest cuts in 20 years.
Your prime minister is a wobbling pustule of lies, cant, incompetence and venality disguised with the make-up of moral narcissism, and as such he perfectly embodies New Labour. I can see why you crowned him, unelected. He Is You.
But please, someone pop the f*cking zit.
405.
““Unemployment is a price worth paying””
……for other people. True Tories never pay. They set out to steal legally - and often succeed (in non-Eggwina fashion!).
For those debating the recession, it is well worth having a look at the graph on the right hand side of the NIESR web site. It shows how several recessions ran in terms of GDP falls and where this ends up in the grand scheme of things:
http://www.niesr.ac.uk/
393 Yokel
just looking at events, I suspect there’s a bit of Jeffrey Donaldson kicking himself now. If he hadn’t jumped ship he could have had real fun leading UUP into this election.
OT I was bored and decided to have a flick through iPlayer - WTF is Muslim Driving School?
What has one’s religion got to do with learning to drive a car?
411 Astroturfer alert.
320. Nick Palmer MP January 13th, 2010 at 6:27 pm
Thanks, it is funny as well because if you try and say oppose something for your voters it bombs on all the levels of support!
My select committee reports were always full marks though!
Catching the speakers eye is as tedious as in reality I should imagine - You have to be good at ‘fiddling with your mouse’.
I am a terrible mouse fiddler and so never once caught the speakers attention.
On the negative side I can just imagine some ‘wag’ doing a skit on it and giving MPs Black and white overalls and Bags to put swag in it. Brown envelopes with cash in it and instead of a Bed being empty each morning…….
388 Just why IS Rantzen standing in Luton South after the incumbent Labour MP has announced she’s jacking it? At 70 yrs this year, perhaps she’s also a tad mature for the cut and thrust of political life. No chance imho.
407.
“lean sustainable growth with a projected budget surplus: Tories.”
Utter rubbish. The official Tories paved the way for the Blair-Brown continuation of their venal policies. The picture of the economy at handover time was a short-sighted illusion. The nation was being slowly throttled, deprived of the opportunity to create real wealth while the cream of what was left was being ploughed into increasingly-few pockets (always ready to abandon SS GB for foreign climes if things turn for the worse) and ordinary employees were having their pensions morphed into ‘whatever we feel like paying you’. Doomed!
FPT, Iraq.
Comparing Uday Hussein and Chemical Ali with Juan Carlos is silly. The former have loads of blood on their hands; the latter doesn’t.
However, plenty of Franquist ministers had blood on their hands (as did many of their opponents) yet both sides saw the sense of letting byegones be byegones, and dismantling the dictatorship, after Franco died. I’m not saying that we can be sure that would have happened, after the death or overthrow of Saddam, but equally, we can’t be sure, as tim has asserted, that his supporters would have fought to the bitter end.
What we can be sure of is that under the bloody rule of Saddam, far fewer people would have died in the five years after 2003, than did in fact die after the invasion.
“…unemployment did not peak until 1984, two or three years into the recovery, at 3.28 million, or 11.9 per cent of the workforce…”
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/sean-orsquogrady-high-unemployment-is-here-to-stay-1332007.html
Don’t know if this has been posted before but the detail of the Populus poll is now available (hat-tip UKPR).
http://populuslimited.com/uploads/download_pdf-100110-The-Times-The-Times-Poll—January-2010.pdf
The regional splits are dire for Labour with them back in the situation where they are only just winning in Scotland. Elsewhere the Conservatives lead and other than the North they do so by 13 points plus. The Midlands is comparatively particularly awful showing them 24 points down on the Conservatives.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/
Apologies if this has already been posted.
420.
So on that basis, Gabble, we’re more than a year from the worst unemployment of the present Tories’ recession. How bad do you project things going in the next 18-24 months?
384 Since you like to compare Labour to the Conservatives, there was never any year under the last Conservative government in which the economy contracted by anything close to 4.8%.
Your party has given us the worst decade of economic growth since the Forties, and shrunk manufacturing industry throughout their terms in office.
Some economic record.
Literally the only good thing about the recession is that it gives me no excuse not to do an MA next year. Because the job market for graduates this summer is going to be sodding appalling.
420 Unemployment hasn’t peaked now.
Gabble and Wage Slave…here’s to mutually assured destruction.
421.
Looking at polling by artificial ‘regions’ is for anoraks whose IQ is below 90. You might as well analyse data by the number of syllables in the constituency names. ‘Wales and the South West’ ffs. You might as well create ‘Ulster and East Anglia’.
426.
John O = Strangelove? (more ways than one?)
418
ordinary employees were having their pensions morphed into ‘whatever we feel like paying you’.
Brown and Balls wrecked the UK pension system in 1997. Until then most final salary schemes were adequately funded; companies spoke of their pension scheme surplus.
Labour have robbed the money from working people, and their trade union allies have sat idly by while it happened. Worse, they have funded the the incompetents to keep on destroying ordinary people’s retirement.
Im also fairly sure the tories never promised to abolish boom and bust.
420. “…unemployment did not peak until 1984, two or three years into the recovery, at 3.28 million, or 11.9 per cent of the workforce…”
Gabble did you notice this bit “two or three years into the recovery”? Do you not realise the implication? Unemployment, after a financial crisis lead recession, typically lags the return to GDP growth by three years, if Q1-2010 is the point that GDP turns we would expect unemployment to peak late 2012 to early 2013.
Do you think unemployment has peaked? Because if you don’t think that your comparison with now and the 1980s is a fallacious one.
430. ryans: “430.Im also fairly sure the tories never promised to abolish boom and bust.”
There’s been no ‘boom’ under Labour - just moderate growth.
420,
“…unemployment did not peak until 1984, two or three years into the recovery, at 3.28 million, or 11.9 per cent of the workforce…”
So you are explicitly not comparing like with like. What would/will be the unemployment rate under Labour 3 or 4 years into the recovery from this (harder, faster) recession?
Anyone can quote the worst figure they can find from the past - to imply that it would be the figure if the Opposition were in power today is at best disgenuous and at worst deliberately dishonest.
420. It isn’t that hard to temporarily stave off unemployment if you print TWO HUNDRED BILLION POUNDS of unearned money and pump it into the economy.
But pain delayed is not pain averted, it is arguably pain worsened in the long run. We have to pay this money back. Therefore we now face a decade of austerity and sluggish growth - unless the Tories can save things - because of your government’s grotesque ineptitude.
Moreover, this recession was of course largely created by Labour: they let industry wither, they encouraged the housing boom, they spunked endless cash on illegal wars, they wasted all our tax money on pointless public sector wage increases. £300k a year for a dentist.
Jesus.
I remember when my politically neutral stepmum came from Canada to live in Britain about five years ago. She’s no Tory, she’s probably a fiscally sensible Lib Dem.
The first thing she noticed about Britain (apart from the fact our winters were milder (this was a while ago)) was: “all the public sector waste”.
Labour F*cked Up. Again. That’s all we need to know.
427. I know they’re somewhat artificial, yet significant differences often emerge between them, which translates into more or less seats than UNS predicts - although in aggregate, as I have previously shown, their impact on the national outcome is very small…
Don’t know if this was posted.
“Getting around Gordon”
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/5703718/getting-around-gordon.thtml
429 spot on 5 billion minimum a year, and at the time , journos were falling over themselves to say how clever Gordon Brown was…, thats about 65 billion basic minimum, more like 100 bn in real terms, meanwhile my pension scheme along with thousands of others has gone bust.
re 370 Sunil I did. And I’ve also used the telescope on which it wasn’t discovered.
Here’s a little quiz. How many different constellations can the planets be found (and the answer’s not 12).
Unemployment is 5 million at this time IMO. JSA + ESA.
When you add on those who have been made part time etc the figures are dreadful.
I just walked to the local supermarket and the weather, through lack of salt on the roads made this country feel like it was on its knees. Not just a recssion or slump but complete failure.
I noticed the leader of Kirklees council was in London today on the local news bullitin, he looked like he was shitting himself metaphorically. Maybe the Government has seen information on the likely weather patterns for the end of January/ Febuary/March?
I can tell you that in the last two years I have noticed road salting has been cut back quite drastically - Just a general observation.
This bad weather also shows why state planning fails everytime and people and communities are better organising themselves. In kirklees for instance local knowledge should have made cllr aware that huge tracks of the council is susceptable to snow of at least 6 days a year even when much of England has little snow!
#369 … economy has grown 1.6 per cent between August and December, not bad…
To give that some perspective it’s grown 1.3% since 2003 on the basis of the NIESR figures.
Just a bit of news for punters looking at the NI next Assembly election date.
There is many a murmur here that some fudge is going to occur. If they pull a deal on devolution of policing and justice the next Assembly elections will be after May if the deal sticks.
Some may also have noticed a market about which leader will be first to go. Peter Robinson or Gerry Adams. This on the surface may appear perverse and Robinson is indeed heavy favourite. It is an indicator, however, that Adams is having a bit of trouble. The stories about him and his brother and Gerry’s bulls**tting over the matter are getting more currency. His position as leader was being question before this scandal..and theres a real excuse now for those who want to push him aside.
427 ‘anoraks whose IQ is below 90′ is that labour voters?!
438,
Thirteen (from vague memory, doesn’t the Sun end up in Ophiuchus briefly, or am I imagining things?)
Watching PMQs on ITN, didn’t anyone notice the bizarre Boy Osborne?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xtxj-craTWc&feature=player_embedded#
Go to 50 seconds in, I think he’s wet his plus fours.
I wouldn’t usually use such strong language as this but…
Gabble, I don’t think that you’re a very nice person.
I’ll go and wash my mouth out with soap now…
Not sure if anyone else has noticed but the NIESR are referring to this ‘moderate’ recession as a DEPRESSION.
The implication being there is nothing blummin moderate about it. Still, if the rest of the Labour party want to navel gaze along with gabble, it gives me some satisfaction to know they will be out of power for quite some time.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/6982388/UK-depression-ended-in-2009-says-economic-think-tank-NIESR.html
442.
I didn’t realise you were thinking of voting Labour, ‘Ave it.
433. Gabble is totally dishonest. I think we know that. He is the most disgusting, ugly, deformed and physically objectionable poster on here, and I’ve never even met him. He has a kind of moral elephantiasis. Huge unnatural tumours are sprouting from his soul.
In a way I pity him. Also I revile him. UGH.
In fact he’s giving me dyspepsia and I must abed to take my salts. Sawadeeekaaaap.
413. |Jeffrey may not want to be a leader though. Kingmaker, influencer…but not leader.
437 MTF
It’s actually more incompetent than that. Such was the disaster Brown created by bankrupting perfectly viable pension schemes, he had to create a taxpayer funded Pension Protection Scheme which now means we all have to pay more for a problem of his making. If he had left well alone the Government and people in pension schemes would all be better off. Worse the useless twat hadn’t the courage to reverse his decision when it was seen he had made a Balls up.
421. Wage Slave you old piss pot - you really are the last person to talk about IQ. I doubt if you need all your digits to add yours up?
re 443 the Sun spends 3 times longer in Ophiucus than it does in Scorpius. No it’s not 13 as the planets wander from the ecliptic.
451.
Although I may weave a tangled web, I do not have eight pairs of hands.
427 wage slave
It probably takes an IQ well below 90 to come up with Ulster as part of any political region - considering that 3 of the counties of Ulster are in the Republic.
“So much for the British recession.”
“Retail sales jumped by 6% in December – the best results for that month since December 2005. Same-store sales rose by 4.2%.”
http://www.investmentu.com/IUEL/2010/January/the-end-of-the-british-recession.html
A little OT, but I had a paticularly satisfying (as a Dad) conversation with my sixteen-year-old daughter, recently. My wife had just brought up the subject of house prices and what did I think was going to happen with them in 2010, and my daughter chipped in “I think they’ll go down quite a lot”.
I asked her why she thought that, and her response was that the Government had just printed loads of money. She said that she understood it was to try to boost the economy without inflation, but “surely there’s a really high danger of inflation going up quite a bit?”.
Me: “Well, yes. I’ve seen a few reports seriously worrying about that”
Her: “So interest rates will go up, yes? And probably quite sharply?”
Me: “I suppose so. That makes sense”
Her: “So if the house prices are fragile right now and interest rates go up sharply …”
Me: “Ah. Yes.”
I’m repeating it not only because I think her analysis could have political implications (will Cameron get the blame for a house price crash in the second half of 2010?) but because I was so pleased with the conversation - she’d been paying attention to economic and political issues and reasoned out a fairly sophisticated line of analysis. And I look at her and think that it seems like only yesterday she was starting secondary school (where does the time go?)
453. wage slave January 13th, 2010 at 8:34 pm
If I have two beans and tow more beans……
455. Gabble January 13th, 2010 at 8:35 pm
So if retail figures slump in January will Gordon Brown take the credit for that as well?
447
i was the other day cos i am pissed off with Camo being so worried about green-ness and not saying anything about CUTIING TAXES!!!!
‘Recession ends’ after worst year since 1921
Thanks Labour!
I’ve realised Globule must be Gordon’s press secretary and his ‘job’ is finding any tit bits to feed his master anything positive, however out of context.
It doesn’t work here but probably goes down a storm in the bunker… perhaps that’s why Gordon is so determined he’s doing so much right.
As for PMQ’s, how proud the great leader must be that his only means of attack to get the rabble behind cheering is purile comments about appearance and posters…
Some call Dave shallow…..
439. was the council leader interviewed re gritting? the bbc tell us about how the stakhanovite highway gritters keep the a roads clear, but all the local politicos in bristol have gone to ground, nothing is said about why the chose not to have grit stocks and why little is done to clear pavements.
i wonder do i venture out on friday hoping not to fall and break the other arm so i can attend a fracture clinic.
453. No you definitely do not!
449 Yokel
Hmm, I suspect he’s called that badly. He’s served his purpose by switching sides and will never be really one of the chosen ones. In Lagan Valley he’s got Poots snapping at his heels and I suspect he’ll be the more influential.
450
Its even more incompetent than that, some schemes don’t even qualify for the PPF and have to apply to the Financial Assistance Sscheme (FAS). Any increases in pension on pre 1997 service gets 0% increase… now where have I heard that 0% increase figure before….
440.
” didn’t anyone notice the bizarre Boy Osborne?”
It has been along time since anyone put themselves in the frame for replacing Michael Gove as Bizarre Boy supreme (being the only parliamentary grandad who always looks as though he should be wearing short trousers is quite unique). But GideO did appear today as though things were going better with Coke or, in a tight division, a female member had slipped her plastic pleaser on full throttle where the sun does not shine. Anyone any idea why?
#455 What were Woolworths retail sales like in December 2009?
456
Andy Cooke
If interest rates rise to head off inflation, house prices and the economy will head south faster than a whore’s knickers..
(apologies for the colour full simile)..
A long period of low interest rates and high taxes is more likely..
457.
“If I have two beans and tow more beans”
You’re one of PB.com’s ‘has beans’, Martin?
405. “Unemployment is a price worth paying” is the single only remit giving to the bank of england with its independence. Was Brown wrong on that?
You speak from a position of ignorance.
461. dr spyn January 13th, 2010 at 8:38 pm
To be fair he was on about gritting. As was the Leader of Leeds council.
Northerns are hardy folk, we dont have qualited toilet roll but we use sand paper and rusty ‘bastard files’ on our backsides!
467,
So what happens if inflation spikes up? Does the Bank Of England get given a far higher target? Or have the inflation-control remit removed? Would we just have to grin and bear the inflation?
454.
ALL of Ulster is in the republic. Just some of it has been ‘borrowed’ for a while by those who like sex with those young enough to be their grandchildren.
468. wage slave January 13th, 2010 at 8:42 pm
Indeed I am a Has-bean - but not quite an old fart!
I fart more than a moo-cow. Indeed the nextdoor neighbours think it funny when i have been drinking and they can hear it next door. They would not have a smile on their face if they could smell it!
I think I am unique in laughing when hearing my own farts?! 
The next door neighbours must think Gordon Brown has come round to visit after a heavy dose of Beer and curry! 
I’d be surprised if a fudge wasn’t reached in NI. None of the parties are really prepared for an election and if there was a SF victory, the Assembly would simply collapse and all roads would lead back to Westminster and more unrest.
I do hope they sort something out to patch it all up for elections to take place as normal in 2011.
461 dr spyn - are the Bristol snow-ploughs still stored at the top of that long hill up out of the city toward Weston/Portishead (Long Ashton is it)? I remember from my childhood that unexpected snowfalls often meant the snow-ploughs couldn’t be retrieved & brought into use.
472 LOL
Ulster says NO!!!
The employed will just have to get used to a slightly lower standard of living.
What’s wrong with that? We can afford it.
470.
” rusty ‘bastard files’ on our backsides!”
These are John Major’s corrosive documents, waiting to be released under the 30 year rule, about the randy Vulcan and his mates. Only he eschewed ‘backsides’ in favour of our souls.
OGH, how about a new thread, this one appears to have turned to rat sh1t.
472
Has Bill Clinton borrowed NI ?
Evening all
There’s a huge amount of after-timing going on about the weather. One County Council I know laid in some 9,000 tonnes of grit for the winter and has used a fair bit of it.
Had they laid in 20,000 tonnes they’d be in a better position though they still couldn’t have got to every minor road and pavement. Had it been a mild winter and someone had found out the Council had bought 20,000 tonnes of grit which wasn’t being used, they might just accuse that Council of wasting money.
Martin’s comment about local communities is valid and has happened in some areas but my worry is the true cost of the cold weather will only come to light in the weeks to come and I’m not talking about potholes but the death rate among the elderly who have suffered through the cold.
477
yes let’s see you sell that one to the public sector unions !
472 wage slave
463. Jeffrey has the rising star stuff written all over him years sago but the last couple of years have made me think he’s half hearted if he has any leader ambitions at all. Time will tell and he could surprise me but Donaldson has an overriding wish to build a new big tent unionist party, something that Robinson was the other wing of.
Anyway the DUP have a possible problem in Lagan Valley from Basil McCrea who has fast tracked himself from failed business with an odd bedfellows to an MLA and TV face in no time. He’s on a fast track to UUP leadership as well if he keeps going at the same pace.
God knows how but there you have it.
478. wage slave January 13th, 2010 at 8:50 pm
No doubt the 30 year rule will be wiaved a few weeks before the election!
Frankly and being serious - Assuming the Tories win the next election they should release all information on Labour 1997 - 2010 that is bad.
477 At one level, they can.
Perhaps, 200 years of rising living standards in the West are finally petering out.
But, if so, that’s a harsh World we’re entering, and one that won’t be at all sympathetic to liberal/left values.
482. Alanbrooke
Material Luxuries vs Low Unemployment
477 - LOL. Please use that at a hustings. It will be hilarious to see how long it is before you’re driven out by the baying hoards…
474. 3/1 with Paddy Powers if you think they’ll pull it off.
473 The best fart I ever remember was a 10 second,3 tone rasper in the library when I was studying for my ‘A’ levels-it shattered the silence like an air raid siren (and induced roars of laughter)
470.twice bristol ground to a halt last feb, with c. 4-5 in of snow. it is by west ridding standards a small amount, and insignificant by scottish highland measure.
but local paper on tues? had claim bcc was almost out of salt/grit, politicos not visible/lying low. local bbc not asking bcc anything at all. i guess that their policy has created work for a and e and orthopods.
473.
Just for Martin.
http://www.microbeerclub.com.au/images/notes_beer_brewery_august/old_fart_l.jpg
Note the Tories on the label!
“Old Fart 5% ABV 500mL: Whilst the name and label of this beer may suggest it being a gimmick the beer inside is anything but, and is indeed a very fresh Bitter or ESB. Copper brown in colour with some fig and sultanas suggested by the esters that the nose finds. Velvety in the mouth with a bitterness that just brings this beer back into balance for style. The body is medium to light as is the carbonation leaving the beer in a highly drinkable state. Quite traditional and a good pairing for aged cheddar cheese.”
369. Gabble:
‘“…the respected think-tank [NIESR] believes the trough of output was rather earlier in August and the economy has grown 1.6 per cent between August and December, not bad.”
http://blogs.ft.com/money-supply/2010/01/13/the-uk-recession-appears-over/
Moderate, as predicted.’
Well if we compare the monthly NIESR figures the drop was from 107.4 in April 2008 to 99.8 in August 2009 which was a fall of 7.1%.
A 7.1% fall in GDP is thus Gabble speak for ‘moderate’.
475, not sure but it might have been under avon c c. but it would come as a surprise.
481. stodge January 13th, 2010 at 8:52 pm
Thats very true as well, I can tell you in kirklees for instance the district is chopped between Sheffield and somewhere like Halifax via postcodes for qualification for winter heating allowance. Some folk get it for one period whilst others do not.
To my mind stuff like that should be devolved from central government to local government as well.
484 Yokel
Please no, not another McCrea !
Just tell me he doesn’t sing.
489 - My understanding is that the next election is due in May 2011 so I don’t see any value. We discussed this yesterday and had assumed the market was 2010 but it’s not.
490. Patrick West Ham fan who is basically Labour but despairs of Gordon Brown January 13th, 2010 at 8:55 pm
You made me laugh as i was taking a drink! It went up my nose!
496 Have you ever been present when the Singing Nun has been singing “Bring Back the B-Specials”, while wearing his cardigan?
The experience is unforgettable.
498 Sorry,Martin
Off to my local,ciao for now
499
Evidently my cultural horizons have further room to expand. I should imagine it’s something like a Dead Kennedys concert.
497. Sorry David you are bang on though. My head was away with me.
I live in Wyre Forest and Dr Taylor’s a cert if you want to put money on him. The Tories are putting up a particularly bad candidate, most Labour voters will vote tactically this time and it’s unlikely the Liberal vote will return as Taylor particularly appeals to this demographic. The Tories are also in power locally and coping flak through, well, just being in power. The Taylor supporters are also making all the running in the local media.