Tories move up four in first ComRes poll of the year
January 16th, 2010UPDATED 2030
CON 42 % (38)
LAB 29 % (29)
LD 19 %(19)
The first of tonight’s polls is good for the Tories?
A new ComnRes poll for the Indy on Sunday is just out and will bring some cheer to Cameron Towers and might add to the gloom within Brown Central.
There’s been a straight four point switch from “others” to the Tories with Labour and the Lib Dem remaining static.
This is the second of two recent polls to have the Tories at the 42 level - a position that would almost certainly secure a comfortable working majority.
Labour will be cheered that after all their recent troubles that they are not going down.
ComRes, together with Ipsos-MORI, tend to be the most volatile pollsters and in December had one poll with the Tories on 41% - 17 points ahead only to be followed barely nine days later with Cameron’s party down three and Labour up five.
There’s likely to be another poll tonight - watch this space.
UPDATE
CON 40 %(42)
LAB 31% (30)
LD 18% (16)
But the second poll has the Tory lead being trimmed
So two polls going in different directions and, as usual, it’s hard to offer an explanation. Both firms operate in an entirely different manner but are trying to test the same thing - the state of opinion ahead of the general election.
The one common element is that “others” seem to be on the decline. With ComRes this was was to 10% while YouGov has it at 11%. All this is a far cry from those heady figures for others that we saw in the months after the Euro election.
It was inevitable that as the battle became focussed on Labour versus the Tories then you would see more polarisation - and that is what I think is happening.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
I see the Tories are hurtling towards 35% in the polls.
Who was it said the polls would widen in January?
Labour = Down The Pan!
which is why the election will be in June
Just noise.
Labour will be disappointed that the tories’ share has increased - perhaps we shouldn’t have drawn so much attention to the posters after all.
However, they have retained their 29% share from the last Comres, which was their highest share since March last year.
What about the Grice comment on the Indy blog?
“A majority of people want the Government to scrap the Trident nuclear missile system, according to the latest ComRes poll for The Independent. By 58 to 35 per cent, people believe the £25bn renewal programme should not go ahead because of the state of the public finances.
That’s the good news for those politicians who are sharpening an axe. The bad news for them is that voters want spending on health and education to rise in real terms every year.
The finding on Trident will be welcomed by Labour figures who are pressing Gordon Brown to sink Trident, as it bolsters their argument that it would be a popular move. But there’s not much cheer for Labour in the poll, which puts the Tories 16 points ahead.“
Has this story been discounted?
‘However, they have retained their 29% share from the last Comres, which was their highest share since March last year’
haha, now that really is something to celebrate!!!
Based on the ComRes/IoS poll from 15/1/2009 changes are;
Con +1 Lab -3 Lib-Dem +3
No swingback here! :O
Now it’s official, I reckon this is worth reposting fpt:
Compare and contrast, and note the timings:
“I predicted the other day that Labour’s campaign would revolve around the twin tracks of Labour’s team versus the one man band Tories coupled with Tory tax breaks for the rich and married. Surprisingly I was right and thanks to some poor decisions by Cameron it’s succeeding beyond expectations..
by Roger January 16th, 2010 at 7:07 pm”
with
“Tories 13% ahead. ComRes poll for tomorrow’s Indy: Con 42% (+4) Lab 29% LD 19% >70 seat majority. Not so fab, eh comrades?
by Scott P January 16th, 2010 at 6:58 pm”
In a new personal best of stupidity, Rogerdamus managed to make his usual inane and witless prediction about the poll results - AFTER the actual results had come out, which already disproved his ridiculous dribble.
5. And that’s 1% more than they got under Michael Foot.
I despair sometimes. Don’t the great British public know that Cameron’s face goes pink now and then ?
6 oldnat
That was an old post about an old poll.
But, but - the Tories have lost several local council seats - this cannot be right!
Re 8. Link;
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/voting-intention/communicate
Mike - on my PC at least, the Labour and LD colours seem to be merging into the same reddy-orange.
Seems fitting somehow…
LABOUR ARE DOOMED TO DEFEAT!
Labour/LD will both be wiped out!
6. Oldnat
Can you link it…?
5 Gabble-face facts-Labour are going to lose.
I take the comfort that,in hindsight,the worst thing the Tories did was win a fourth term in 92 (even some Tories I know agree)-the whole thing fell apart,post Black Wednesday,Europe splits,sleaze etc etc.
Better to accept (hopefully) not too bad a defeat in 2010,and as spending cuts rile public opinion,hope a new,,more telegenic Labour leader can quicly restore support for his/her’s party
‘Labour will be cheered…’
By 29 % ? Trebles all round guys!
12 wibbler
Yes. Just discovered that.
i can’t wait for Rod to update his graph.
“Labour will be disappointed that the tories’ share has increased - perhaps we shouldn’t have drawn so much attention to the posters after all”
Gabble, I suggest you direct this remark to tim. I have been making the very same point to him for at least a week, as he wanked on about airbrushing, but he didn’t seem keen to listen.
Perhaps it would be better, coming from a *friend*.
11.He also uses make up and has his pictures airbrushed,oh and he has links to Waffle SS fans in eastern europe….no one is listening
re 15 Bob you’re right, I can hardly tell the difference between the colours on my computer either and I wish Mike would go back to the old colours.
5 “perhaps we shouldn’t have drawn so much attention to the posters after all”
Labour strategy = EPIC FAIL!
Next one up: seeking the support of the middle classes….p155 off the WWC core vote by looking to be chasing after those with money…
9. It’s completely forgotten now, but a Conservative worker called Rodney Tyler wrote rather a good book about the 1987 election called Campaign! He makes clear that Labour’s strategists remained absolutely convinced that they’d won the 1987 election campaign, even though Labour finished up 146 seats, and 12%, behind the Conservatives.
I think that roger’s view is similar.
henrymacrory
Independent-on-Sunday/ComRes: C 42 (+1) Lab 29 (+5) LD 19 (-2) Other 10 (-4). Another poll tonight will show narrower C lead
I wonder if the Tories’ 4 point gain is down to those who had been sulking over the new Europe policy and had been saying that they would vote UKIP or not at all but are now prepared to hold their noses and vote Tory to get Brown out? It will be interesting to see the UKIP total.
Either way it’s ominous for Labour. Probably just goes to show how little attention people give to PMQ’s!!
Gab’s, Tim, Coldy, Roger, NickPMP, Rodders, get ready a better poll for you *MAY* be about to appear in a minute;
http://twitter.com/henrymacrory
Sean Fear Re Wales. You have to remember the seismic impact of the end of mining in the country. Hundreds of thousands were directly employed and lived their whole lives in the Labour movement, working in a unionised industry, going to the working mens clubs etc. The only major non mining sectors were most obviously farming and light industry. In the former Labour never established dominance, and the latter was always a far weaker grip than the sort of iron control exerted by the NUM. Now mining is gone it is largely services that has taken its place. The influence that was removed cannot be exaggerated as the decline of the Valleys CLP membership shows. The whole country felt the gravitational pull whether they worked directly in mining was irrelevant there was usually an indirect connection. With a general collapse in Labour support nationally the absence of that support network is now plain.
23 “has links to Waffle SS fans in eastern europe”
Best typo of the year
Voting Labour will become as popular as folk picking their bottom in Harrods and eating the residue!
32. Nice.
5 report FPT
“perhaps we shouldn’t have drawn so much attention to the posters after all.”
At which point exactly did it occur to those in the bunker that the line “David Cameron looks really good on his posters” might not have had the desired effect?
24 - I don’t mind. It seems to reflect reality.
5. “perhaps we shouldn’t have drawn so much attention to the posters after all.”
No sh1t. Remember, Gordo the pathetic figure of pity equals votes for Labour. The smug Gordo the Clown routine repulses voters.
Perhaps he could try pissing his pants at the next pmqs to see if it has any effect on the polls.
27.Kristin, I wonder if it will be the missing Mori poll turning up in the Observer a week late again?
29. Its the same poll with a different spin.
27 ??? numbers for Labour +5% ???
31. “Waffle SS” has been a very minor joke on here for a few months. Possibly invented by me, tho I could be wrong.
Do UUP/Tory seats count as Conservative seats for betting purposes?
If so, given the problems the DUP’s having, couldn’t a conservative majority be *slightly* higher than projections based on mainland UK calculations alone?
Rentoul’s assessment
http://johnrentoul.independentminds.livejournal.com/249485.html
37 - Mike seems to know there’s another poll. perhaps he can comment. if it is and has been superceded by more recent polls what’s the betting a narrower lead will get more airplay.
BTW - where’s macrory getting the =5 for labour from ?
42 Rentoul:
The ComRes poll in tomorrow’s Independent on Sunday puts the Conservative lead at 13 percentage points:
Conservative 42% (+4)
Labour 29% (-)
Lib Dem 19% (-)
Others 10% (-4) Including Green 3%, Ukip 2%, BNP 2%
(Changes since ComRes for The Independent published 22 December.)
So Tories mopping up “others”….
swing … what?
Labour going down to a (deserved) major defeat.
No 11. dispairs - why. I now believe that the British public are beginning to wake up to the duplicity of Gordon and his pack. I dispair as to what GB and TB have done to this country with their policies over the last 13 years, they have got to be voted out, otherwise there will be nothing left to vote for.
Fascinating snippet:
“The Tories are 20 points ahead among men but only 6 points among women.”
The Harriet Harpy effect? Could be.
The Labour Party has the right ideas about how to get Britain out of recession.
Agree 33% (”The Conservative Party has the right ideas” Dec 34%)
Disagree 59% (Con Dec 46%)
Three cheers to the one in ten Tory voters who agree, and the 17% of Labour voters who don’t!
Interestingly 31% of 2005 Labour voters disagree too People are more likely to say that Labour does not have the right ideas about how to end the recession
Nick Clegg is a better political leader than either David Cameron or Gordon Brown.
Agree 21%
Disagree 64%
Surprisingly, fully 43% of Lib Dem voters disagree with this statement and fewer than half - 48% - agree
27 - where the bananas is Macrory getting his +/- scores from? They’re all wrong…
4 - “Just noise.”
Some self awareness then
Macrory’s probably looking at the ComRes poll before last. That had 41-24-21.
28 I’ve always thought the danger for Labour is that UKIP is a kind of reserve Conservative vote, which will swing the Conservatives’ way when needed. The number of Conservative/UKIP floating voters (who include myself) is probably around half a million.
30 I think that’s right. Coal-mining and socialism go hand in hand. When mining goes, then perhaps a generation later, the Labour vote starts to evaporate. Obviously, the Labour vote holds up better if there are few jobs to replace coal mining, (though even then, people may start voting for other non-Conservative parties) but it can collapse completely in places where large numbers of non-mining jobs are created.
grr bad typing tonight. +5 for labour from.
id assume its mori, since they gave the tories a 17% lead last time… henry’s tweet seems somewhat cryptic since he’ll usally break the numbers if there v good or bad, so im assuming something in the range of 11-13%
47 SeanT
It could be a side-effect of the “marriage” row.
Women I meet, even married women, are far less enthusiastic about the “marriage agenda” than men - for reasons I don’t really understand.
49. From the last IOS poll (C41 L24 LD 21) not the last Comres poll
51 - ahh, that would be it.
47.Seant, I don’t buy that figure. I have consistently found it to be the opposite way around. Maybe its a Scottish thing.
44.
“So Tories mopping up “others”
No, just ‘noise’. And I’d say the same if it were the other way. These polls are only accurate to a 3-4 per cent ball park if they’re lucky. In my view the split has been about 40:30:20:10 for some months now. People getting excited over slight variations from this are like schoolboys with their first Mayfair.
Completly off-thread:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/technology/8463516.stm
Does anybody else on here when they post get I.E exporer shutting it down? I have more often in the last week and it pisses me off!
Where’s the swingback?
People at UKPR saying it’s a 9-point lead in YouGov that’s also out tonight…
59 - And I’d say the same if it were the other way.
Of course you would ducky.
ComRes poll = Tory 70 Overall as per Baxter.
60 - Happening to me too on and off, either it’s something that the page on this site is running or a bug in IE. Has IE updated recently?
The supplementary questions are rubbish.
58. It is slightly unexpected. Though I think Harriet sure ain’t helping, with white male voters, and white working class men especially.
Eventually if you keep attacking a part of your core vote, with legislation specifically designed to sexually and racially discriminate against them, they will rebel.
Also I see a Darwinian explanation. Women worry more about health and education: the hearth and home issues, so they are frit of Tory cuts. Men, being defenders of the tribe, worry more about the overall state of things: is the cave properly defended, do we have enough cudgels.
So the bankrupt state of the country worries men more, and they are less impressed by promises of more spending on hospitals.
Alternatively, the finding is a rogue.
Just noise.
by wage slave January 16th, 2010 at 7:28 pm
January 16th is a little early for an extraordinary AGM of the thicket, but I think tim should call one. They desperately need to get their news sense meters recalibrated.
60 / 65
yes, same happening here with IE8, restarts but no fix from microsoft, there is a nasty day zero bug out there but I’m sure OGH maintains a clean site!
Twitter:
Some better news, YouGov/S.Times set to show a 3% narrowing of the Tory lead to 9% via @vincentmoss (via @BenCooper86)
http://twitter.com/search?q=comres#search?q=yougov
60 – MD, I had the same problem all day yesterday, IE kept reporting a ‘malicious or corrupted add-on’ and shutting down.
Even IE can recognise a tim post it would seem
*Gets ready for Wayne to come on with another rant about Peter Kellner*
59. wage slave January 16th, 2010 at 7:47 pm
You know what this means - the voters are sayiong F*ck you to both Labour and the Lib Dems!
They are doomed - DOOMED to defeat! 
Its going to be like a steam roller crushing both LD and Labour! 
9 point Tory lead according to Twitter. Some say this is “unchanged” others that its a Labour boost by 3.
Interesting that Browns tractor stat list of acceptable “aspiration” highlights “to have a larger house” but omits getting to own one in the first place, having priced out large numbers of a generation from the housing market
75 - it’s unchanged when compared with the pre-coup one; down 3 when compared with the post-coup snap they did. Make of that what you will.
So the editor of Murdochs least loved rival manages to scoop their poll. Hmmmmmmmm?
I think you’re pretty much right then. Men are more likely concerned with bloky things like the macroeconomics and the status of our nation economically, than women which are the one much more liekly to use the NHS, and have contact with education and schools.
In a blunt sexist way, Men are concerned about how we get get moeny, women are concerned about what we spend it on.
The yougov poll is just noise. I would say the same if it was other way round.
175. That could mean the Tories’ share is unchanged but Labour’s has risen by 3
72. SimonStClare January 16th, 2010 at 7:52 pm
I think it will clear up with IE when they release an update but I dont think Tims posts will change!
It can be annoying though - when the page saying you cannot view it comes up it allows you to go back IIRC it is the middle line of the text on the screen.
77. I thought Rod and Gabble told us to ignore the post coup snap poll? They were of course correct, as always.
Therefore Yougov is unchanged. The only relevant news is that ComRes has the Tories up FOUR.
75. Its no change next to the last YG/ST poll, its Con -3 compared to the last YG poll for The Sun;
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/voting-intention/yougov
75 Unchanged from the last Sunday Times survey, 3% down from the Sun. I assume that would mean 40:31 Conservative/Labour, with UKIP on 3-5%.
I only hope we stay at this come the election.
I had a similar prob yesterday with Google Chrome, but it seems OK today.
77: mutter mutter about bad weather and and the Sun cock-up….mutter mutter….
52. Where are “other jobs” to replace mining?
Failed coup boosts PM’s popularity
Mr Cameron’s Conservatives retained a nine-point advantage over Labour in the poll, with both unchanged on 40% and 31%, as the governing party held on to a four point leap secured last month.
The Liberal Democrats, led by Mr Clegg were up two points at 18%.
YouGov interviewed a representative sample of 2,033 voters, online across Britain, on January 14-15 - a week after the botched coup attempt by two former cabinet ministers.
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ukpress/article/ALeqM5g9wdsKcbwgX1b0q1_FdJfHR3VOkQ
O/T - This is hilarious. FBI use a Spanish MP’s face to show what Bin Laden would look like.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/8463657.stm
Overall, the range of the Conservative lead, 9-16%, remains the same as it’s been for months.
89 In places like the former coalfields of Somerset, Kent, Leicestershire, and Derbyshire, and to some extent, South Wales, things like light manufacturing and services.
90. Gab’s apparently John Major’s personal ratings also recovered somewhat in early 1997.
83. No, just the poorly-reported aggregate. You can’t count the same sample twice, anyways!
90 - your selective quoting just takes the piss. Next paragraph:
“However he remains far less liked than David Cameron or Nick Clegg who enjoyed smaller boosts, and twice as many voters still think he is doing a bad job as PM than a good one.”
‘Voters are thankful that Gordon Brown has not given them HIV, but are still very angry for the aggressive syphilis he infected them with.’
Some better news, YouGov/S.Times set to show a 3% narrowing of the Tory lead to 9% via @vincentmoss (via @BenCooper86)
All hands on deck Gabble! Reboot the “Hung Parliament” narrative!
90. Gabble January 16th, 2010 at 7:58 pm
92 see 30.
90: I note you didn’t include this part of the report Gabble.
However he remains far less liked than David Cameron or Nick Clegg who enjoyed smaller boosts, and twice as many voters still think he is doing a bad job as PM than a good one
95. Evening Rod. No swingback on ComRes or YouGov. No sign of the Tories heading for 35%.
Where have all the UKIP gone?
The Others are on 10%; the Greens on 3% and UKIP and the BNP both on 2%.
SeanT asked earlier about the Tory lead among women being less.
Here are a couple of thoughts..
Mary Portas thinks women are not that enamoured by Cameron.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/david-cameron/6997940/Do-David-Camerons-new-posters-work.html
Superficial, but ‘perception is reality’ in the political as well as the marketing world.
Bonkers Dorries and her policies are not necessarily female friendly.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/mps-expenses/6997465/MPs-expenses-Nadine-Dorries-under-investigation-by-sleaze-watchdog.html
Surely nobody uses IE on their home computers any more???
90. Heroic, in the circumstances. I note you are the only lefty remaining at the wicket. Well done.
The conclusion must be, after all these polls, that the Tory lead has widened ever-so-slightly since Xmas, from about 7-11% to 9-14%.
Both parties can take some comfort from this. Labour might have expected even worse after the Snowhope Putsch, Cameron’s lead has been totally undented by marriage-gaffe or airbrush-gate, and he is still on course for a fairly comfortable victory.
95: Can we have a look at your graph updated with the ComRes figure please Rod
100. Slackbladder: “I note you didn’t include this part of the report Gabble.”
I was quoting the paragraphs with the latest YouGov figures:
CON 40
LAB 31
LIB 18
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ukpress/article/ALeqM5g9wdsKcbwgX1b0q1_FdJfHR3VOkQ
102: UKIP were always are risk of imploding post Euro’s. Out of sight, out of mind, broke and with no effective leadership.
Labour may have been helped in the YouGov poll by the 5 minute Labour Party Political Broadcast on BBC1’s The One Show on Thurs evening which was seen by 5.7 million people.
102. Right wingers returning to the fold and getting ready to give the Clunking One a good kick in the ballots?
And UKIP are heading for the loony vote…
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/ukip/7004127/UKIP-to-call-for-ban-on-wearing-burka.html
Ban The Burka ! A great move to get the libertarian vote there…
102. Gone back to the Tories after having their pre-Christmas sulk over the new Europe policy!!
106. I can’t update until I have sample size and field dates…
And it gets updated with YouGov as well.
I’m guessing on a slight narrowing of the gap, eyeballing the figures…
Why doesn’t someone introduce a scrappage scheme for Internet Explorer? It’s capitalism’s answer to the Trabant.
93 Seen thanks. Re Replacement industries your theory maybe borne out by the Valleys depopulating as fewer industries grow up there to replace mining with population shifts to the South and West instead.
Odd how Gabble is ignoring ComRes………
I’ve come to the conclusion that the post-poll threads are in general the least interesting. 9 times out of 10 they don’t tell us anything very substantial and they generally consist of posters from various political schools each pushing their preferred narrative.
Labour are still well behind, the Conservatives would like to be further ahead, the Lib Dems are making no progress as yet. A hung Parliament remains a possible outcome, but well against the odds unless the polls start closing more. There is no sign that the Tories are dropping below 40% and they may in fact be increasing to a little above that level.
Have I missed anything of any interest?
58 ChristinaD
Yes, dear.
111. This is the latest attempt by UKIP to steal the BNP’s clothes, and I suspect is as doomed to failure as the previous efforts.
109 - Agreed. Couldn’t believe what I was seeing, and don’t get me started on Maguire. Doubt there’ll be a similar hatchet job around Jonah any time soon…
I wonder what further treats the MoS has in store tonight from Watts’ account of life at No.10.
Usually the real shock horror stuff in such serialisations appears in week one.
87 I have found Google Chrome giving me the “sorry I’ve got to shut down” message, although it doesn’t acftually seem to shut down (it did once, but then relaunched itself with exactly the same websites showing).
I have now moved completely over to Chrome, it is much faster than IE and has a little extension program available that will launch an IE tab for any websites that don’t run properly on Chrome.
92 In other words we are not arguing about the overall winner just the scale of the defeat when it happens.
I agree with a previous poster it might make June a more viable option with the exception of one tiny thing: The budget.
It can be a give away and no one will believe it. It can be a budget for the truth and show the previous deceptions.
Not much wiggle room really.
Neither can UKIP’s vote have been helped by that bizarre appearance on that hokey/cokey MEP [Is she in, is she out ?] on Daily Politics..
Rory Stewart doing a programme on L of Arabia now.
remember Mr Smithsons Golden Rule that the poll which shows labour in the worst position is the most accurate one!
117
That’s about it.
Changes on YouGov/Sunday Times poll from January 2009;
Con -5 Lab -1 Lib-Dem +4
SWINGBACK!!!!!!!!!!
112 Is Strangford now a competitive race? BTW I see Mrs Trimble is standing in Lagan Valley that surely rates a political grudge match way up the scale surely.
128. Oh FFS don’t you start GIN!
111. What on earth makes you think that will be a wildly unpopular policy? The liberal Swiss have just voted in a referendum, to ban minarets, the French government is right now tabling similar ban-the-burqa legislation.
I imagine a very large minority of British citizens would be quite keen to see the same here. It’s a clever move by UKIP.
They’re not aiming for Guardianistas.
If YouGuv keep stop asking me to vote on their poll it will stay at 40%
I said before they will know those that vote Tory, and no longer come back to ask them any more, but are only asking the swing voters.
If I am correct the Tory lead is much more than their 9%.
Any one else seemed to have dropped of the YouGuv list?
I’ve had Firefox regularly shutting down over the last couple of days. Anyone else found that?
115. Re depopulation we shouldn’t be too surprised or concerned by this. The pattern of population has shifted many times over the centuries - in the middle ages the eastern counties were the most densely populated and what are now industrial areas with dense conurbations were very sparsely populated indeed.
As the industries that drove the population shifts of the 18th and 19th centuries decline, then some ’swingback’ is to be expected and trying to stop it is ultimately futile.
117. That’s on the money AF….
UK POlling:
“But YouGov show lead back to pre-HoonHewitt levels”
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/
130. Soz.
122 I agree, Google Chrome is great, apart from the absence of a proper adblocker.
129. I think the DUP will hold Strangford with a greatly reduced majority, it will certainly be very competitive for 2014/15.
Credit to Daphne for trying but Donaldson has a big personal vote and he should win comfortably but still with a reduced majority.
136 And the Comres doesn’t.
I think what is needed on here is a consensus that everyone can coalesce around. Something like: “the Conservatives will win the election, and they will be a hopeless Government”. Something for everyone in that!
ComRes/IoS
Scotland sub-sample
Sample size = 91
(+/- change from UK GE 2005)
Lab 39% (n/c)
Con 22% (+6)
SNP 20% (+2)
LD 16% (-7)
http://www.comres.co.uk/systems/file_download.aspx?pg=539&ver=1
“I had some difficulties - the man on my right in this photograph tried to shoot me for a bet”
I can’t see Rory Stewart lasting more than a term as an MP unless he gets a big job in the FCO.
140: come on now, Gabble is just playing a updated version of the great Lord Nelson, holding his telescope up to his blind eye
‘I see no ComRes’
Not all of the news in the YouGov is good for Labour [apart from being still 9 points behind]
‘52% of respondents thought that Tony Blair has deliberately misled the country, with 32% thinking he “genuinely believed in the threat”. 23% of respondents thought that Blair should “face war crimes charges”.’
139 Thanks. Do you feel the balance has now tilted to the UUP in the more borderline races such as Belfast South and Mcrea’s seat?
142: Sorry Stuart…is that the tories I see there higher than the SNP?
The polls are just showing noise. The parties’ have more or less found their respective levels, with only 1 or 2 percent change likely at most.
Election please.
A bit of humour for a Saturday night.
http://mydavidcameron.com/
The Conservatives are risking all by continuing to back Inheritance Tax. It’s just an open goal for Labour as Brown’s speech this week showed.
They need to close that down immediately, ‘due to the worsening state of the economy we are committing to no tax reductions until we have opened the books’.
Cameron risks being slaughtered in the TV debates on it. I read Brown’s speech and it’s a very convincing attack.
cheltboy, I would have a chat with gabble about that link if I was you.
147.
Err… were you not aware of the Tory line: sub-samples are meaningless nonsense!
I wonder if UKIP beating itself up in public is having an effect. The ugliness of their Northern League allies’ racism and homophobia, could be having an influence. Farage was using bully boy tactics to kick out Nikki Sinclaire MEP from the EP delegation, who is a loyal Ukipper dedicated to the cause of British independence. I don’t think anyone in Buckingham will be too impressed, seeing UKIP swinging to mirror the BNP’s policies on race. Or anywhere else in the country.
The Farage resignation and the Pearson takeover has come at a good time for Cameron. Memories of the referendum disappointment are fading, and awareness of UKIP seeking out lowest common denominator support growing.
Not to mention that, however disappointed eurosceptics are that Cameron is not openly withdrawalist, that is as nothing compared to their hatred of Brown, and their desire to see the back of him. The argument that a fourth defeat of the Conservatives will do good loses leverage, when the deficit is surging over £1 trillion.
The debts alone will leave us as puppets of foreign power. Cameron will be hit with a run on the £, and a financial crisis every time he challenges the power of the OWG. By another 5 years, Labour would have run up £3 trillion, and we would never be able to pay it off. The bankers would have us where they wanted us.
150. The Conservatives IHT policy is very popular with middle class, aspirational voters. Labour’s stance excites the working class and core, but its a bad signal for middle Britain.
I actually think similar to him but I think the tories best to repair the damage.
http://hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk/2010/01/the-wrong-argument.html#comments
Fair enough to him and at least he had a good go at deconstructing my argument!
I just dont think in political terms his objectives are politically potential and he has no organisation to bring them through - But I always vote Tory so what would i know.
Unfortunately, whilst my heart says “ComRes” my head has to say “YouGov”. YG were a shambles with their “leader speech ratings” during party conference, but generally, I trust their methodology and consistency more than ComRes.
Still, one can dream…
132 I havent been asked by You Gov for a good 6 months.
152: Oh of course Stuart, I’m just interested in your line
Simple average says for January thus far: Con 40.7, Lab: 28.8, LD: 18.1.
So, rounded equals: 41-29-18.
Which is basically bang on the scores for May, you would have thought. Maybe an extra point to the LDs as the coverage increases for them. But, that’s about it.
142. Tories take 2nd place in Scotland! Hah.
I wonder if we could see a coalescing of anti-government votes in Scotland towards the Tories.
Look at it this way, if you hate the government in Scotland, you are in a quandary. Because you have two governments: the SNP in Holyrood and the Labour party in Westminster.
So if you want to “give the government” a kicking you have to vote either LD or Tory. But the Lib Dems are a dying force, so that leaves the Conservatives. Also, you can vote for the Tories with the added attraction that their most stringent Tory policies will not affect you quite so directly, as you in a devolved polity.
Just a notion. I am sure there are still vast swathes of Scotland where Missus Fatcha is still burned on Hogmanay Eve as the locals dance around naked in woad and reeboks, but I wonder if Cameron might sneak a few more Scottish votes on the above basis.
Baxter seat changes on these Scottish ComRes figures:
Argyll and Bute CON GAIN from Lib Dem
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk CON GAIN from Lib Dem
Dunfermline and West Fife LAB RE-GAIN from Lib Dem
Glasgow East LAB RE-GAIN from SNP
Ochil and South Perthshire SNP GAIN from Lab
146. Yep! The DUP are going to take a major hit in May. Luckily for them they are starting off from such a strong position or they could be in serious trouble.
Ironically I had contacted OGH just after the New Year about a possible article of NI seat predictions, in light of recent events I’d now prefer to wait until the dust settles!!
So the most recent poll shows that thanks to serious ineptitude by Cameron and some long overdue decent tactics by Labour the polls are narrowing. It always takes a week or so for these things to register with voters. If that poster was a vote winner for Cameron then I’m a Dutchman.
(Or am I out of date again?)
150. The Conservatives know that IHT reduction is popular with the middle classes. People who are not wealthy still hope to become so. Why should we trust the state with our money, one we’ve earned it and paid our taxes. I prefer my children to benefit than the slimeballs in government awarding themselves yet more largesse.
Brown can talk forever but his economic management has been a disaster. Cameron does not have to say much.
152 Stuart Dickson
That’s not a Tory line! It’s shared by all of us who understand numbers! Sample size 63 - which is so small you couldn’t balance it demographically if you tried!
155 Is it still safe to go within 100 metres of your house post vindaloo,or should warning signs be in place?
The middle class is exactly who the IHT reduction is aimed at. These are the people who have seen their assets rise in value above the threshold, even if they don’t have the cash wealth, and who value being able to pass on those assets to their children.
Ba seem to be “chumps”
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1243625/Businessman-Mirko-Fischer-sues-British-Airwars-treating-men-like-perverts.html
“A businessman is suing British Airways over a policy that bans male passengers from sitting next to children they don’t know - even if the child’s parents are on the same flight.”
A real FFS moment (the man was sitting next to his wife for gods sake”!)
154. I can’t find the speech again, but it was *very* good.
It used the ‘tax cuts for the rich’ line (to paraphrase) ‘the only tax cut they are committed to only applies to 3000 estate owners in the country … why would you vote for a party that only wants to cut tax for 20 people in your constituency’
I genuinely think this will bite them in the ass with left leaning middle class voters.
i genuinely don’t understand why comres ask 1000 people then discount 500 of the. do comres really think there will only be a 50% turnout at the election? as this site has hinted - it is much more likely to be 65%-70% which would narrow the Poll lead somewhat. just seems strange??
161 All based on the voting intention of 59 voters throughout Scotland , polling science has improved tremendously over the last few years .
Header updated with YouGov
164. As part of a package of other tax cuts I would agree. But having only IHT presents really badly. I see absolutely no gain from sticking with it at the moment - it’s a liability - it will likely be the central focus of the Labour campaign - it’s a gift to them.
133 Firefox restarts every couple of days with ‘upgrades’ for - IE8 just crashes but doesn’t - very strange.
168 his wife was also pregnant but he STILL had to move or they would have stopped the flight.
One of the MANY reasons I don’t ever use BA
It seems to me that there are a minimum of 40% of voters who are prepared to vote for the Tories simply to be rid of Brown. It also seems Nelsonian to say the least to believe that the 40% is a soft vote - its been in that region for ages.Even if Labour were to produce a budget aimed with goodies for the Middle Classes it will only be seen as the foolish and impossible election bribe that it would be and which Labour would cynically have to reverse in the hugely unlikely event they were returned to power. I truly believe that many Labour bloogers on here and other sites simply do not get how hated and despised Brown is by so many people in this Country. That may be unfair - but thats life.
172. Mike Smithson
The tory share was 42 in the last YouGov.
Of course all the above is a load of guff, if we apply Smithson’s Golden Rule - the worst poll for Labour is likely to be the most accurate.
The worst post-Xmas poll for Labour: Mike Smithson’s ARS, which has a Tory lead of 16 points.
The very best poll for Labour still has a Tory lead of 9.
Average them out, chuck em about, do what you will, the average points to a Tory lead of 12-13, and the Golden Rule point to a Tory lead of 16 or more.
And on that emphatic note, this house of Knox is going into recess. Zzz.
162 How is Sir Reg Empey viewed as UUP Leader. Is he the best they have or do they have new talent arriving? Re Lagan you are most probably right but I imagine Mrs Trimble will gove it her best shot at the DUP. Some of the scenes as she and her husband exited the Upper Bann count needing protection etc really looked ugly on BBC Parliament.
161.Stuart.. Isn’t that quite an extrapolation from a sub sample of 91?
9. SeanT. I’ve been looking up and down the thread inn vain for an apology. ‘Rogerdamus’ is out of date!!
117 Agreed Antifrank.
Also the discussion depends on the order polls released. If we had heard YouGov first then Tories would have been downcast/defensive that the Sun poll had reverted to same figures as the earlier one, then uplifted by Tories storming back in Comres. Labour posters jubilant then downcast/defensive
YouGov first reported Labour around 30 in September. Its been almost as stable as ARPO since with moves all within margin of error/sample variability. 40:30:18:12 +/-
I’ll only get excited if there are big moves outside of MOE reported in both phone & internet polls - no sign of that happening.
Across all pollsters, it’s still very much Con 38-43 / Lab 24-31 / LD 17-20 with no significant trending.
One point of note re Labour’s share since 6th December is how divergant the different companies are in their reporting:
YouGov: 31, 28, 30, 31, 30, 31
ComRes: 24, 29, 29
Populus: 30, 28
Angus Reid: 23, 24, 24
ICM: 31, 30
Mori: 26
BPIX: 30
Averages
ICM (2): 30.5
YouGov (6): 30.2
BPIX (1): 30.0
Populus (2): 29.0
ComRes (3): 27.3
Mori (1): 26.0
Angus Reid (3): 23.7
155. Martin, I wouldn’t bother attempting to debate with Hitchens. He’s one of those odd right wing commentators who seem to live on a completely differant planet to most ordinary people.
Ouch.
And by a similar margin (49% to 31%), they also said they believed his former communications director Alastair Campbell was not truthful when he gave evidence to Sir John Chilcot’s inquiry this week.
http://johnrentoul.independentminds.livejournal.com/250099.html
The German government has warned web users to find an alternative browser to Internet Explorer to protect security.
The warning from the Federal Office for Information Security comes after Microsoft admitted IE was the weak link in recent attacks on Google’s systems. Microsoft say the security hole can be shut by setting the browser’s security zone to “high”, although this limits functionality and blocks many websites.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/technology/8463516.stm
Gabble, gabble, gabble as Jimmy Gordon woos the middle classes. Labours’ lies are coming home to a roost near you. Roll on that longed for real poll. Labour’s share of that? 27%,Tops.
181. Ted, technically the change in Conservative share with ComRes is outside MOE.
150 MK Why don`t you read the comments in the Guardian today on The Great Leaders recipe for the country
“It used the ‘tax cuts for the rich’ line (to paraphrase) ‘the only tax cut they are committed to only applies to 3000 estate owners in the country … why would you vote for a party that only wants to cut tax for 20 people in your constituency’”
Sorry, I thought you said the speech had good lines.
177.
Gabble, I belive Mike is looking at published dates. Last “published” yougov poll was (according to their web site) on 14th Jan (the sun). The 42% tory vote was published on the 8th (however the fieldwork does seem to have taken place around about the same time)
177 Gabble wasn’t that the poll reported in Sun that you were trying to convince us was the Sun lying about the true figures ? Thought you argued the Sun figures should have been 40 for Conservatives, so nc for Tories?
187 Not if the true position was 39/40/41 % - both polls would be within M of E .
187 that’s why I said “both phone & internet”, there will be an occasional outside of MOE but unless that shows up elsewhere not worth getting hung up on.
166. Patrick West Ham fan who is basically Labour but despairs of Gordon Brown January 16th, 2010 at 8:29 pm
I have not eaten it yet!:wink:
I will more than likely fart like a trooper but I do that most days without strong curry!
I was surprised Hitchens commented on my thoughts and fair play to him!
I think his views interesting but very unlikely to command a majority in the house. I know more about electoral politics and strategy than he does but i dont discount his good reasons for wanting what he does. I just think him misplaced/ misunderstood for going about it the way he does. In yorkshire for instance thier is an MP with similar views to his - Philip Davies IIRC. The Tories are a broad church and my only reasoning for hitchens views are that he was rejected in K & C even though he rejects what i advoicate.
Sure maybe I am wrong and he says it is internet rumour - the fact is if Hitchens wanted to be a Tory MP - he probably could make it in a winnable seat: The fact he picks nonsense lines to attack the tories shows he feels disgruntelled IMO. What Hitchens should have done is get on the list as potential MPs - he would have got a seat either a safe seat or winnable marginal where he could espouse his views but he chose to be a remote critic instead.
191. Ted
That had the LibDems on 17 not 16.
It’s taken a week for that spot of local difficulty to work its way through the u-bend which it now has (Comm Res is out of date) and I’m confident they’ll narrow further.
Tax breaks for 3000 families is the most compelling slogan since ‘Labour isn’t working’ In todays economic climate Cameron could become less popular than Fred Goodwin.
194. I like him describing your “wiseacre, pipe-jabbing style”.
Back to squeaky-bum time for the Tories.
Labour back in the thirties….
Con majority of 7 forecast…
http://hungparliament2010.blogspot.com/
So my Con 38 Lab 28 Libdem 20/22 is looking pretty good.
183/155
I think to refer to PH as, ‘right wing’ isn’t strictly correct, on social issues he’s very much a traditionalist, but on economic matters he’s somewhat different, he’s not over keen on many aspects of the free market.
Peter Hitchens what ever you think of him is a highly successful journalist and author, Martin Day is errr Martin Day.
Another outing for the “we cant go on like this” line
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/lawandorder/6998981/Rural-Britain-hit-by-knife-and-gun-crime.html
“The increases come despite the Government pledging to tackle armed crime, including more than £15 million in a knife crime action programme in hot spot areas around the country. However, most of the areas were in urban forces.
It emerged in December that only two people arrested for carrying a knife have received the maximum punishment of four years in prison, further undermining attempts to curb knife crime with tougher penalties.
Chris Grayling, the shadow home secretary, said: “This shows that the Government has long since given up trying to govern for the whole country. Resources and effort are increasingly just put into Labour’s own areas with little regard for people elsewhere. We can’t go on like this.””
From the article is the point smearleader likes to harp on about
“Separate figures next week will show there were 648 homicides – murder, manslaughter and infanticide – in 2008/09, the lowest level for 20 years.”
But wait!
“However, police have already admitted the main reason for the fall could be due to skilful paramedics and improved medicine than any suggestion Britain is becoming less violent.”
Anyone still think they are tough on crime?
150 Au contraire.After Browns “aspiration” statement.
199. Except the Conservatives aren’t showing any sign of dropping below 40.
Evening all and 2 polls placing the Tories at 40 or above is fine.
Re the Scottish sub sample, of course such a small number is pretty meaningless. However almost every poll or sub sample in the past 12 months has placed the Scottish Tories between 18 and 22%. 20% equals 130,000 extra votes. Enough said.
180. I’m sorry Roger, but really.
…. you call a poll which either shows no change from a previous poll, or at best a margin of error move (opinions differ), a poll which moreover still shows a large Tory lead of nine points, a poll which comes out on the same day as another poll which shows a jump in the Tory lead outside the margin of error, to a whopping 13…. you believe all this shows that Labour’s new strategy is “succeeding beyond expectations”
??
I can see why you have retired from the advertising industry. I can’t imagine what I’d think if I was the chairman of kit-e-kat (UK North (West)) and I went in for a meeting with you as the account manager.
Chairman: So, Fat Bearded Roger, how is the expensive new kit-e-kat campaign going?
Roger: We are succeeding beyond expectations!
Chairman [excited]. Really, tell me more!?
Roger: Well, according to one survey we are selling roughly the same tins as before, and [rustles paper] according to another survey our sales are… dropping dramatically. And either way we are being totally outsold by our major competitor.
Chairman: [stares at beard, grimly]
197. AndrewG January 16th, 2010 at 8:54 pm
I just think Hitches wrong because he expects folk in the UK to behave in a way they will not.
Britain is probably the most unlikey country to reject the present system and engage with new parties. Its not going to happen, indeed the electoral system shows this when PR for european election gives the chance. In a first past the post election what he proposes is nonsense.
198. RodCrosby
Extraordinary performance by Labour, especially given the self-inflicted wounds over the last couple of weeks.
182. One point of note re Labour’s share since 6th December is how divergant the different companies are in their reporting:
So what’s ‘notable’ about that?
The polls have moved ‘a gnats bollock’ in the past few weeks. It seems that all the main parties have gained a per cent or so because of the dinimishing effect of the other parties ( at the moment).
It has been a relatively good week for the Tories. (Cameron on Marr. Clarke on QT, and no mention of marriage thank god ) so 41% rather than 39% makes sense. No really bad news for Labour. Haiti has obviously taken oner the News agenda. They know that 33% would probably result in a hung parliament so they are making progress.
Silent Hunter on the Speccie saying The Guardian taking down comments on The Great Leader`s piece today
“Gordon Brown voting reform plan ‘worthless’ says Nick Clegg
Nick Clegg has dismissed as “worthless” a plan by Gordon Brown to reform the voting system – in a further clear signal that the Liberal Democrats are more likely to support the Conservatives in a hung parliament.”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/liberaldemocrats/7004473/Gordon-Brown-voting-reform-plan-worthless-says-Nick-Clegg.html
“If that poster was a vote winner for Cameron then I’m a Dutchman.”
If it’s the NHS poster then it was basically a personal promise from Cameron to those people who are nominal Labour but in reality “don’t knows” except over the big stuff like NHS. It will obviously work in proportion to how trusted he is by those people.
Got to assume all this talk about the poster is attempted reverse psychology.
199. coldstone January 16th, 2010 at 8:55 pm
I dont rember Labour saying that in 1992!
What did Neil Kinnock say about him
Hitchens is an Anti-Communist/Anti-Socialist as I am.
I have trouble with the way he goes about espousing his views not what he says.
198. Rod Crosby - the only squeaky arse around here is yours when you slop your way on here to announce what your daft swingback model now predicts….[YAWN]
Net gain. Overall, decent for the Tories.
205.
Gabble. Fortunately for Labour the H-H-H conspiracy fizzled out in a nanosecond.
I thought it would have legs and was proved wrong. If it had carried on into this week Labour would have been down to 25%.
206. I think we can sat the effects of the snowstorm plot have melted away.
Business as usual.
Hung Parliament on the cards.
2.6% swingback to Labour largest party…
184. The fact that 31% apparently thought Campbell was ‘truthful’ suggests serious sampling problems or mass delusion.
Others falling fast too…
202. “Re the Scottish sub sample, of course such a small number is pretty meaningless. However almost every poll or sub sample in the past 12 months has placed the Scottish Tories between 18 and 22%.”
That’s not the case in the last few days, let alone in the last year! The most recent Populus subsample had the Tories on 15%, and Angus Reid had them on 16%. And the full-scale Scottish Mori poll in December had them on just 15%.
Off to the boozer,ciao for now!
RodC your making me laugh tonight.
I am not worried by all these polls, as we know Labour will only get 30%, and the Tory voters knowing they can kick Brown out will turn out in force (like they did for Boris), and Brown will be out.
“Hung Parliament on the cards”
Or, you know, a majority of 50-70 with less biased models.
“Gordon Brown’s election strategy is doomed, but you have to admire the cheek of it”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/matthewd_ancona/7006034/Gordon-Browns-election-strategy-is-doomed-but-you-have-to-admire-the-cheek-of-it.html
153.
All these parties seem to beat themselves up in the end and disappear ( apart from the Greens).
Farage is bright guy, but saw Bercow as an ‘Achilles Heel’, and thought he might have a chance of making it to Parliament.
If he loses gainst Bercow, he could be leader again of UKIP come 31st December. Pearson is a nonentity who is just keeping the seat warm.
222. Indeed. RodCrosby also claimed that Boris wouldn’t win the Mayoralty I seem to remember. Infact, ever since I’ve posted on this site Rods predictions Re. Conservative performance have been lamentable. :%O
best estimates.
The plot cost Labour 1.5% (now recovered) and gained the Tories 0.5% (now lost)…
As you were.
226. And wasn’t it Rod who kept us all updated on that court case by a couple of nutters who thought Obama wasn’t legally allowed to become President?
225. Farage is an egotist.
My next door neighbours who are Labour voters, have seperated for financial gain - they spend 3 nights next door and 4 nights at the other address which he pays for as he is in work. Is this good for their children? NO! One is lurching toward being a drug addict (17 years of age) and the other I just hope does not end up like the eldest.
I have not grassed on them yet as I know the eldest is a cnut - whose mates probably torched my car. Its not the parents fault.
But it has come to the time where others have grassed given todays activity.
Ed Balls is very wrong in trying to skew the system in favour of non-couples. I have seen what happens to single parent families. It tends to be waste of children and their potential.
228. I said both Obama and McCain had questions to answer…
225 The official title is irrelevant. Who is the only known vaguely public UKIP figure. Farage. Who is the only UKIP leader the press care about/give the time of day/want to interview Farage. Pearson gets to cut a few ribbons at fetes for a while but whatever he result in Buckingham even if he wins Farage will be back.
154. Of course, cuts in IHT will affect hundreds of thousands, perhaps even millions of voters, rather than 3,000, as Labour seem to believe.
IHT is hated, because people believe it hits them when they’re at a low ebb. People whose heirs are exempt from IHT, like tim, seem to believe passionately that other peoples’ heirs should pay it.
What Labour can’t get their heads around is that it *isn’t* a tax that hits the rich, but rather, a tax that hit’s the moderately well-off who don’t employ top solicitors and accountants.
Glad to see that poll is in line with the Ave it projection I posted last night!!!!!!
Football - Man city season over: title between man u and chelsea
234. Bristol City- 4-2 win over Preston.
Watford continue to = LOL.
Look - I seem unemployable with a degree - post graduate education in IT and proffesional qualifications. We dont need immigrants and they should be repatriated!
I have even been turned down as a bus driver and i past my driving test more than ten years ago!!!!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/janetdaley/7005970/Our-immigrants-success-is-not-down-to-Labour.html
Mr Clegg is to set his party a tough target of increasing its number of MPs from the current 63 to 100 at the election, which must be held by 3 June.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/liberaldemocrats/7004473/Gordon-Brown-voting-reform-plan-worthless-says-Nick-Clegg.html
Well there is nothing like guaranteeing failure……..
235 yes its a problem now - helpful that peterboro and plymouth keep losing - scunthorpe threw it away…
Lets be clear - our objective is to stay up nothing more…
236. “I have even been turned down as a bus driver and i past my driving test more than ten years ago!!!!”
That’s unlucky- considering that this fella was a bus driver:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/bradford/8460696.stm
227. I always said “The Plot” wouldn’t be a big deal. Voters have largely made up their mind - They want Labour out, but after the con man took them in in 1997, they aren’t prepared to be suckered in en masse by another politician, so it’ll be Cam with a smallish majority and low expectations.
Con 40% Lab 30% Lib-Dem 20% Con Majority 20-30
As you were indeed.
108 days to go and Labour cheering an average poll rating of 30%. I wonder if we go back to mid Jan threads on 2005, whether Tory posters were celebrating a rating of 33% as proof we were heading to victory?
“Whitehall rebels over ‘brutish’ Gordon Brown
GORDON BROWN’S government is “weak” and “dysfunctional” with a “strategic gap” at its heart, Britain’s top civil servants have warned, in a devastating critique of the state of Whitehall.”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6991086.ece
Tory lead
http://www.titanictown.plus.com/hp/lead.png
169 Brown’s comment today about 3,000 people benefitting from the Conservatives’ IHT proposals is nonsense.
The true total is likely to run into several million voters. There are many properties worth more than the £325k at which IHT becomes payable. Their owners may well have considerable savings and other assets.
For every person writing a will, there will, on average, be a number of major beneficiaries. Most of those leaving money and other assets and their beneficiaries will not want the Government taking 40% of anything above £325k.
As an example, an estate worth £500k will pay the not inconsiderable sum of £70k in IHT. If there are two major beneficiaries, each will lose about £35k.
The total number of people affected by this could easily be 5 million. So much for Labour’s professed support for the middle classes.
42 - “GORDON BROWN’S government is “weak” and “dysfunctional””
A superfluous ‘Government’ in that sentence me thinks.
239. AndrewG January 16th, 2010 at 9:24 pm
Thats what is so sick - decent middle class folk being rejected whilst scum have jobs!
“Gordon Brown ready to give Tony Blair election role
The Sunday Times has learnt that moves are under way for the former prime minister to make a temporary return to domestic politics to help fight the Conservatives.”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6991089.ece
211. Mr Jones. It’s what the poster does to the brand…. Cameron’s positive is that he’s better thought of than his party. His negatives are that he’s inexperienced and arrogant. The poster emphasises both those negatives and shows up the shortcoming of the positive.
206 - “Extraordinary performance by Labour,”
Stop gabbs, your killing me, sides splitting…
Ouch, there goes another rib
re 177. Thanks Gabble
248. Roger January 16th, 2010 at 9:28 pm
Good job Labour cannot afford posters!!!
Can you imagine what would happen to them
Gordon Brown is useless! Labour sold out to crypto-communists in the trade unions and let the economy collapse!
ADVERTISE THAT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
203 -219
Yes JAMES, not to mention the Sun YouGov sample (978) published last Tuesday which had the Tories at 17 per cent.
So the last real Scottish poll(MORI) has the Tories on 15, the Populus small sub sample this week in The Times has them on 15, this week’s large YouGov Scottish sub sample has them on 17.
Meanwhile the NAT figures for these polls were 32 (MORI) 30 Populus and 25 (YOUGOV).
I fear the excitement of being over 20% in a sub sample of 90! has been all too much for Easterross’s powers of recollection!
re 243. I assume that the Kalman filter and your prejudices has taken out those polls from your average which are not favourable to your own personal wishes Rod.
“days to go and Labour cheering an average poll rating of 30%.”
If Labour can grab another 2% over the next 4 months, and the LibDems 1%, Brown will probably remain in office…
Remember, Labour have grabbed 9% in the past seven months.
It’s slipping away from the Tories…
244 I’m very happy for Gordon Brown to fight on that issue. He wouldn’t have introduced the transferable nil rate band if it wasn’t an issue that bothered voters.
227 Best estimate is that the gap between Labour and Conservative, in polling terms, is similar, and the outcome between the two will be similar.
Which means, I’ll lose my bet with tim.
252. ex-pat January 16th, 2010 at 9:35 pm
Easterross is as right north of the border as I am south of the border - Labour/LD are doomed to defeat either way!!!!
Do the Brits living out in Spain get a vote?
On the Spanish costas there are numbers losing their properties due to local by-laws. The Spanish are not worried in helping them, and a smart Party could get lots of votes by just bringing up their case.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1243586/If-come-bulldoze-villa-chain-inside-die-Spanish-dream.html
54 - What is it with the endless repetition of the same post by the same people, belonging to the same party…?
Guys, at least add an :emoticon: so we know you know we know you are joshing.
255 Similar to 1987, I forgot to add.
254 Yes, dear, the public clearly love Gordon Brown.
253 Do you really believe the Lib Dems will make no more than 5 gains from Labour total, or do you mean 5 net minus losses to Tories and others? If the former I’d be highly surprised unless you’re banking on Labour at over 30% nationally. In Wales despite the generally bad YouGov polls they arevery confident of and have very good shots in Newport East and Swansea West so 5 gains total if that is what you mean nationally seems slightly lowballing.
254. But only because they dropped to an absurdly low level of 23% during expense’s.
Remember, Labour have grabbed 9% in the past seven months.
Do shut your neck, Crosby. You know everybody’s laughing at you, right?
253. You assume wrong. BPIX are crap - they don’t always publish their sample size or field dates, so can’t be used by the filter anyhow and…
ARS are so out of line with the rest of the industry regarding Labour’s share it makes no sense to include them.
Not that including ARS would make much difference, as the filter is clever enough to discount outliers anyhow…
Any sinner who repents should be welcomed but this is the man who as chancellor squeezed the middle classes with stealth taxes. Many in the middle classes, including those who work in the state sector, are fed up with footing the bill for Labour’s wasteful public spending splurge, its inability to drive through improvements in public sector inefficiency and its failure to reform welfare.
This, too, is the prime minister who just a few weeks ago was taking a swipe at David Cameron over his private education. Maybe he had forgotten that many middle-class parents make big sacrifices to send their children to private schools, or use expensive private tutors, to bypass some of the inadequate state secondary schools.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/leading_article/article6991009.ece
259 See 115.
Baroness Uddin seems be quite the trougher
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6991021.ece
A “SECRET and personal” letter from Jack Straw, the then foreign secretary, to Tony Blair reveals damning doubts at the heart of government about Blair’s plans for Iraq a year before war started.
The letter, a copy of which is published for the first time today, warned the prime minister that the case for military action in Iraq was of dubious legality and would be no guarantee of a better future for Iraq even if Saddam Hussein were removed.
It was sent 10 days before Blair met George Bush, then the US president, in Crawford, Texas, in April 2002. The document clearly implies that Blair was already planning for military action even though he continued to insist to the British public for almost another year that no decision had been made.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6991087.ece
“154. Of course, cuts in IHT will affect hundreds of thousands, perhaps even millions of voters, rather than 3,000, as Labour seem to believe”
You can leave all your money to your spouse tax free. So if you wish to pass on your money without being hindered by the taxman at this point you have a good opportunity to either give a part of your inherited estate to your children or even sign your house over to them. None of this requires the services of expensive lawyers or accountants.
261. Kalman had them on a low of 20.73%…
263. Won’t we leave if Labour are most accurate with Labours share in May.
254. Rod Crosby
And Labour have dropped 7 points and slipped 7 further points behind the Conservatives from Dec 2008 to Dec 2009. They have only recovered one point since and are still the same amount behind
We can all salami slice and use bold type don’tcha know!
Labour Lies
Labour Spins
Labour Twists in the wind
LABOUR LOSING HERE!
262. see if you’re still laughing the day after polling…
263 The filter is so sophisticated, that it discounts any poll that’s discouraging for Labour.
“You can leave all your money to your spouse tax free.”
Only evil selfish people do that.
248 To me it seemed like a pretty simple and straightforward personal promise which would work on a certain set of people proportional to how much his personal word was trusted by those people. Maybe the “brand” stuff outweighs that.
I wonder, Rod, since you *nobody* is listening to your idiocies at all, why you bother posting it.
Do you like talking to thick air whilst everybody mocks you? Do you view yourself as some kind of martyr to an ill-specified cause?
125.”Rory Stewart doing a programme on L of Arabia now.”
SallyC, I have a house full of teenagers tonight. Which channel was it on?
133.oldnat, me too, also finding PB.com very slow and unwieldy this week as well. Normally only have this problem with the Telegraph or Daily Mail sites.
271. Labour are heading back to where they were then…
277 On BBC 2 Chris. He’s an ubber boffin. But narrates well.
re 263. How can the ARPO polls be outliers? They are so consistent.
And given polling history since the war it’s pretty dumb to exclude the pollster showing Labour in the least favourable position.
As it happens I think the ARPO methodology is understating Labour by 2-3 points but that YouGov is more than that out the other way.
Remember the current YouGov weightings methodology is untested in a general election - as is the ComRes approach and MORI.
278. Yes. Defeat.
278. Of course they are Rod. There’s a good chap
251. Martin. As someone who has been called ‘ridiculous and ill-informed’ by Peter Hitchens shouldn’t you be licking your wounds?
283: That should be taken as a badge of honour
Mad Hitch calling someone else “ridiculous” is like the pot calling the kettle.
275 (cont) My point wasn’t clear. Meant to be that i don’t know enough about the brand stuff to judge whether that outweighs what to me was the obvious stuff.
Did anybody see the Rory Stewart programme on BBC2. It was brilliant. If I was Cameron I’d be quite worried - and how can Hague become foreign secretary with someone like Stewart in the wings?
“the filter is clever enough to discount outliers anyhow…”
- outliers
+ unfavourable Labour figures
I think ranting on about the poster has on balance been a mistake for Labour as it’s actually just highlighting Cameron who is generally regarded as okay.
341 If you go back and read the threads for Feb 2005 , there were one or two Conservative posters forecasting a hung parliament based on that month’s Mori poll and others forecasting the LibDems to be down to mid 30’s in seats based on that month’s Comres poll .
287 - Is Mike really suggesting someone should be made Foreign Sec on their first day in the House of Commons?
A foolish thing to say, Mike.
280. “How can the ARPO polls be outliers? They are so consistent.”
They lie outside Rod’s model.
Rod is the only statistician I know who seems to start with his conclusion and then work backwards towards the data. Therefore, rather than data invalidating his model, his model invalidates the data, hence they must be outliers.
287; Give him a few years learning the ropes, but he does seem to be on the way to be being fast tracked for greatness.
@277:
SallyC, I have a house full of teenagers tonight.
Feeling a bit Iris Robinson, are we?
277. ChristinaD January 16th, 2010 at 9:48 pm
I saw that advertised - I decided not to watch as I thought Robert Light was a better candidate in Penrith and The Border. Thats my opinion at this time - Rory will probably prove me wrong but i had never heard of him and still have no knowledge of his effort in electing a tory government.
Sure he will become an MP and possibly a minister - But I know folk who could do that as well as him. Indeed folk who could do more now than him…..
We have won the election - Camo can move in now!
Super Sam!!!!
@287:
I’m finding Rory Stewart to be cloyingly, insufferably worthy *already*.
By the time he’s old enough to be PM, I fully expect to hate his very essence.
287
It was good. Perhaps wait until the Brad Pitt film is in the can before putting him the Cabinet though…….
But he will need a high-calibre job to keep him interested.
242 Me - that is appalling. If a critique as strong as that is being published, I shudder to think what the preparatory material was like.
And this analysis comes from “the respected Institute for Government, which is funded by Lord Sainsbury, Labour’s largest donor …”
Just one quote:
“- The Treasury has given up on its duty to control public spending because it has been “hijacked and turned into a social policy department, a welfare department, a reducing international debt department, an everything-under-the-sun department”. “
292: To be fair, theres a few climate change scientists which have seemed to share Rod’s philosphy
287. Didn’t see it Mike. But I doubt Cam will be worried. The fact he has people like this Rory Sterwart waiting in the wings is good. Cam’s government should get stronger and stronger as we move through the Parliament and the Class 2010 are slowly moved into ministerial and cabinet positions - The party in 2014/2015 should be FAR stronger than the party now. Thats good for Cam’s chances of getting a second term landslide and really being able to get to work on transforming the nation.
“It was inevitable that as the battle became focussed on Labour versus the Tories then you would see more polarisation - and that is what I think is happening.”
I agree with that Mike, but I would add that its Labour+Libdems versus the Tories, and that is not helping the Libdems.
160.”I wonder if Cameron might sneak a few more Scottish votes on the above basis.”
Seant, I think that is going to be the unknown factor in Scotland this time around, and it is making some nervous. But note where the anti Tory bashing is coming from. I don’t bother with these sub samples, or even the occasional Scottish poll, it’s not going to be a nice neat picture across the country. Its where those votes pile up for each party that will decide the outcome. My money is on the bulk of that Labour figure being around the central belt and about 30+ seats there abouts. Just a hunch.
290 - (glesganumpty) Another wonderful example of humanity ……..
287, 297. I’m watching it on Iplayer right now. Rory Stewart ist der Mann. As Bismarck might say.
Peter Watt story is heating uo
229. Agreed. But he is an egotist with intelligence.
232. Couldn’t agree with you more. Farage is still de facto ‘leader’ of the party. Without him UKIP would be nowhere.
287 I did. He’s s clever chappy. Whatever the complications, he’s a great addition.
272.
It looks like we won’t even know the result the day after polling.
In Labour’s Britain, ballot boxes are stored for hours before being counted. About 120 constituencies aren’t bothering to count until Friday morning. Disgusting stuff, really.
294.Martin, men are like a fine wine, they mature with age. I don’t know what teenage girls see in them.
304: He doesn’t half look like Willem Dafoe though
280. Their very consistency confirms their outlier status. As I’ve said before, as long as ARS don’t happen to be the last in the field it makes bugger-all difference whether we include them or not, since the filter quickly discounts them as outliers.
ARS are clearly measuring something different to the rest of the industry when it comes to Labour’s share. That might be attractive to Tories, but not, alas, to statisticians…
Anyhow, each to their own.
second part of the Peter Watt serialisation from his book INSIDE OUT: MY STORY OF BETRAYAL AND COWARDICE AT THE HEART OF NEW LABOUR.
This week’s installment covers…
* The transition from Blair to Brown
* The existence of a secret Gordon Brown slush fund
* The moment when Brown screamed at Blair: “I’ll bring you down with sleaze”
* How Brown tried to scew the leadership election rules to prevent others standing
* Brown’s reaction when he heard Harriet Harman had won the deputy leadership
* Brown’s embarrassing visit to Labour HQ
* How Brown tried to stop Blair having one last PMQs
http://iaindale.blogspot.com/2010/01/brown-to-blair-ill-bring-you-down-with.html
309 all about the over 40s men maturing well!
PS Lab = TEE HEE HEE
308 That would still be about 60 fewer than counted on Friday in 1979 .
279.SallyC, just trying to get his book about his travels in Afghanistan. And if the style is anything like as readable as the article he penned last week, I won’t be able to put it down. I think he is a fascinating guy, and even the kids were impressed with his Wiki page.
311 “That might be attractive to Tories, but not, alas, to statisticians…”
It is OGH which consistantly calls you out Rod, or are you being ’selective’ again..?
re 311. By the same token does the Kalman filter knock out Labour shares of 31%?
And what about all those years of polling history?
305. It certainly is…..
http://iaindale.blogspot.com/
283. Roger January 16th, 2010 at 9:52 pm
No not really!
I have done more to change British Politics than many could!
I chose to be someone most wil lnever have a knowledge, understand or recognise. I am modest - those i help know who i am: If they chose to reward it then that is their discretion. If they dont, fair enough. I will continue on my present path with knowledge of how it happened.
“Secrets of Gordon Brown’s ‘Fund With No Name’ to oust Tony Blair as PM”
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1243837/Secrets-Gordon-Brown-s-Fund-With-No-Name-oust-Tony-Blair-PM.html
311: That depends on what they’re measuring. It could be their methodolgy or sampling is simply better than the other 5 main ones, which is entirely possible. To simply discount data becuase it ‘doesn’t fit’ seems to be (as someone with a Mathematics degree) to be folly of the highest order. At the very least, more investigation and thought should be required.
287
Make Hague Foreign Sec with the exclusive task of ‘not letting matters rest’ with the EU. Give Rory a fancy title and rest of the world, with focus on countries ending in -stan. Put someone to concentrate on the Anglosphere (esp Commonwealth) so we can recover some lost ground before the Diamond Jubilee.
317. Labour shares of 31% are consistent with the rest of the industry minus ARS.
What has “polling history” got to do with it - not that it was ever as consistent as you claim - when all posters start de novo this time?
312. That’s more like it.
this Lawrence of Arabia programe is facinating
The second part:
“‘I’ll bring you down with sleaze’… What Chancellor Gordon Brown screamed at PM Tony Blair on the night that Donorgate exploded into public view”
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1243766/Chancellor-Gordon-Brown-screamed-Ill-bring-sleaze-PM-Tony-Blair-night-Donorgate-exploded-public-view.html
323: Surely the fact that pollsters are starting ‘de novo’ means their methodolgy is not fully tested and therefore other potential views and datasets might be valid?
324. glw January 16th, 2010 at 10:13 pm
If Plato asked you to do them from behind - would you?
‘I’ll bring you down with sleaze’… What Chancellor Gordon Brown screamed at PM Tony Blair on the night that Donorgate exploded into public view
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1243766/Chancellor-Gordon-Brown-screamed-Ill-bring-sleaze-PM-Tony-Blair-night-Donorgate-exploded-public-view.html
‘Find me some obviously sick children’: What PM Tony Blair told aides on hospital visit
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1243827/Tony-Blair-Find-obviously-sick-children.html#ixzz0cogdJO8V
Never heard of Rory Stewart until 15 minutes ago, so checked him up on Wiki. Seems that the calibre of some of the ‘parachuted’ Tory candididates could be pretty high.
Shame that Daniel Hannan isn’t standing at the GE.
330 - Doing Stewart no favours with that comparison.
320.’Officials called it ‘the fund with no name’ and the only record of how much he spent was kept in an exercise book.
It was never referred to in Labour’s accounts.’
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1243837/Secrets-Gordon-Brown-s-Fund-With-No-Name-oust-Tony-Blair-PM.html#ixzz0cognIwEy
Erm. Isn’t that illegal?
327. OK, then it’s 5-1 that ARS are right and the others wrong.
What does it matter? I’ve said that Kalman would discount ARS anyhow, most of the time. So would any other sensible method of averaging or pooling the polls…
330 - Tub of Lard, OGH has had a past thread on Rory Stewart, if you can dig it out, it is well worth a read, a fascinating guy.
RodCrosby:
SHUTUPSHUTUPSHUTUPSHUTUPSHUTUPSHUTUPSHUTUPSHUTUPSHUTUPSHUTUPSHUTUPSHUTUPSHUTUPSHUTUPSHUTUPSHUTUPSHUTUPSHUTUPSHUTUPSHUTUPSHUTUP
Nobody has the slightest interest in what you have to say.
SHUTUPSHUTUPSHUTUPSHUTUP
Thanks.
Everyone else:
SHUTUP about Rory Stewart. We’ve all been to rubbish countries, and most of us have had floppy hair at one point. It doesn’t make you special.
322. Hague is not bad. He may be a self confessed geek but he is a pretty good orator and now ’safe pair of hands’. He made the biggest mistake by putting himself forward for the worst job in the world at the tender age of 36.
335 -
He’s got a cute younger brother you know..?
323
If your model is going to dispense with outliers, it should do so for the highest figure as well as the lowest one. The only reason to do otherwise is, well, to skew the analysis in a particular way….oh.
SallyC - I don’t know about illegal, but it probably breaks some rules and regulations somewhere…
Very worrying news from Pakistan
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/asia/article6991056.ece
335. Some of us currently have floppy hair. And I think Yorkshire should count as a rubbish country.
re 332. But averaging polls is flawed. Your refusals to compare real results against polling just emphasises what a quack you are.
216.”206. I think we can sat the effects of the snowstorm plot have melted away.
Business as usual.
Hung Parliament on the cards.
2.6% swingback to Labour largest party…
by RodCrosby January 16th, 2010 at 9:05 pm”
That set of predictions is a keeper! And I doubt anyone would say the effects of the snow plot have melted away after listening to Brown’s speech today, or the spat developing in the media between Darling and Ed Balls.
“It was all very wooden and embarrassing, especially when he forgot who he’d met and ended up shaking some people’s hands twice. They were forced to go through the whole ritual again, pretending they’d not met him just a few minutes before.”
THE WRATH OF CROSBY
============================
INT. Political Betting BRIDGE
The firefighting continues.
MIKE SMITHSON: Jack W - what’s left?
JACK W (VOICE): Just the batteries, sir. I can
have auxiliary power in a few minutes -
MIKE SMITHSON: We don’t have a few minutes. Can you
give me phaser power?
JACK W (VOICE): A few shots, sir.
DAVID HERDSON: Not enough against their shields.
MIKE SMITHSON: Who the hell are they?
CHRISTINA D: Mike… The commander of the Swingback
is signalling. (a pause) He wishes to discuss terms of
our surrender.
There is a moment. MIKE SMITHSON looks around the battered
bridge, and his eyes meet DAVID HERDSON’s, and PLATO’s.
MIKE SMITHSON: Visual on screen.
CHRISTINA D:(hesitating) Mike -
MIKE SMITHSON: Do it, while we still have time.
CHRISTINA D: On screen, sir.
All eyes go to the SCREEN. After momentary visual
confusion, ROD CROSBY’s face appears, smiling -
MIKE SMITHSON: (dumbfounded) Crosby!
ROD CROSBY: You still remember, Mike. I cannot help
but be touched. I of course, remember you.
MIKE SMITHSON: What is the meaning of this attack?
Where is the crew of the Swingback?
ROD CROSBY: Surely I have made my meaning plain.
I mean to avenge myself upon you, Mike. I’ve deprived your blog
of power and when I swing-back I mean to deprive
you of your life -
EXT. SPACE
We can see Swingback making a large arc as she prepares
to come back for another round.
INT. Political Betting BRIDGE
ROD CROSBY: - But I wanted you to know first
who it was who had beaten you!
MIKE SMITHSON: Rod - if it’s me you want, I’ll
have myself beamed aboard. Spare my contributors.
EXT. SPACE
Swingback continues her slow arc.
INT. Political Betting BRIDGE
ROD CROSBY: (on screen) I make you a counter-proposal. I’ll agree to your terms, if.. if.. in addition to yourself, you hand over to me all data and material regarding the project called VIPA.
Reactions from DAVID HERDSON and MIKE SMITHSON.
MIKE SMITHSON: VIPA, what’s that?
ROD CROSBY: Don’t insult my intelligence, Smithson.
MIKE SMITHSON: Give me some time to recall the data
on our computers -
ROD CROSBY: I give you sixty seconds, Mike.
MIKE SMITHSON turns from the screen -
MIKE SMITHSON: Clear the bridge.
DAVID HERDSON: Well, at least we know he doesn’t
have VIPA.
MIKE SMITHSON: Just keep nodding as though I’m
still giving orders. Mister Plato, punch up the data charts
of Swingback’s command console.
PLATO: Swingback’s command -?
MIKE SMITHSON: Hurry!
ROD CROSBY: Forty-five seconds!
DAVID HERDSON: The prefix code?
MIKE SMITHSON: It’s all we’ve got.
PLATO: The chart’s up, sir.
ROD CROSBY: Mike!
MIKE SMITHSON: (to ROD CROSBY) We’re finding it.
ROD CROSBY: Mike!!
MIKE SMITHSON: Please, please - you’ve got to give us
time - The…the blog is smashed, the computers inoperative…
ROD CROSBY: Time is a luxury you don’t have, Mike.
EXT. SPACE
Swingback, her arc completed, is coming back.
INT. Political Betting BRIDGE
MIKE SMITHSON: (to himself) Damn.
ROD CROSBY: Mike?
MIKE SMITHSON: It’s coming through now, Rod.
DAVID HERDSON: Swingback’s prefix number is thirty-point-zero-zero.
PLATO: I don’t understand -
MIKE SMITHSON puts on his spectacles -
MIKE SMITHSON: You have got to learn WHY things work
on a betting blog.
DAVID HERDSON: (descends) Each blog has its own
combination code…
MIKE SMITHSON: …to prevent an enemy to do what we’re
attempting; using our blog to order Swingback to lower
her shields…
DAVID HERDSON: (at the weapons console) Assuming he
hasn’t changed the combination. He’s quite intelligent…
ROD CROSBY: Fifteen seconds.
MIKE SMITHSON turns to the screen -
MIKE SMITHSON: Crosby, how do we know you’ll keep
your word?
ROD CROSBY: (on screen) Well, I’ve given you no word to keep, Mike. In my judgement, you simply have no alternative.
MIKE SMITHSON: I see your point. Stand by to receive our
transmission.
He turns from the screen again, softly:
MIKE SMITHSON: (continuing) Mister Morus,
lock the phasers on target and await my command…
MORUS: (quietly) Phasers locked…
They’re all sweating.
ROD CROSBY: Time’s up, Mike.
MIKE SMITHSON: (dry) Here it comes. Now, Mister Herdson.
CLOSEUP - DAVID HERDSON’S hands punching in the prefix code followed by other signals.
INT. Swingback BRIDGE
TIM: (stares at his console) Sir - our shields are dropping!
ROD CROSBY: Raise them -
TIM punches frantically -
TIM: I can’t!
ROD CROSBY: Where’s the override?? The override!!
All monitors are haywire now that Political Betting is tapped
in. They search wildly for the right switch, but…
INT. Political Betting BRIDGE
CLOSEUP - MIKE SMITHSON
MIKE SMITHSON: FIRE!
CLOSEUP - MORUS’S hands punching.
MIKE SMITHSON: FIRE!
EXT. SPACE
Political Betting fires at Swingback inflicting heavy damage.
INT. Swingback BRIDGE
A shambles - debris flying; ROD CROSBY knocking to the
deck. He struggles to his feet through wiring -
ROD CROSBY: (enraged) FIRE! FIRE!
TIM: We can’t fire, sir!
ROD CROSBY: Why can’t you?
TIM: They’ve damaged the photon control and the warp drive.
We must withdraw!
ROD CROSBY: No! No!!
TIM: Sir, we must! Political Betting can wait; she’s not going anywhere.
ROD CROSBY clams as the other holds him; he breaths
deeper.
EXT. SPACE
Swingback turns away.
Political Betting BRIDGE
They watch ON SCREEN as Swingback hauls off.
MORUS: (breathless) Sir, you did it.
MIKE SMITHSON: (enraged) I did nothing - except get caught with my breeches down. (continues) I must be getting senile. Mister Plato, you go right on quoting regulations. In the meantime, let’s find out how badly we’ve been hurt.
The Turbo doors whoosh open as MIKE SMITHSON reaches them.
JACK W stands there, tears streaming down his face; he holds the body of Midshipman EASTERROSS.
Both of them are covered in blood. He sways into MIKE SMITHSON’s
arms as the others rush forward.
@337:
Bah, humbug. I also have a weakness for dark skinned boys. I don’t see anybody suggesting I be made the next People’s Princess.
See? You’ve made me hate Rory Stewart years before I’d planned to. I HOPE YOU’RE ALL PROUD.
335.Martin, its not just that Rory Stewart looks a bit like William Defoe, but there is something about him. Hmmm, Westminster is going to be an interesting place with him there.
332 - I don’t follow that post. All pollsters conduct their methods differently. They try to measure the same thing, but do so in radically different ways. As at today, we have no way of knowing whether one method is superior to another.
Now, you can take the view that our host takes, which is that to average polls is a nonsense. I don’t actually agree with that, because an average of polls at least gives us a sense of what consensus opinion is, though it is certainly true that there is no reason to suppose that an average of polls is more accurate than any given poll. Consensuses can be wildly wrong.
Alternatively, you can take the view that you average all polls from pollsters that meet objective quality standards. I have no quibble with you discarding BPIX on this ground, since it is not part of the industry-standard professional body.
What I have great difficulty with is applying any kind of subjective test or filter over and above this that tunes out the effect of opinion polls at the extremes, since these opinion polls may actually be the most accurate - we just don’t know either way at the moment. Averaging should be inclusive or not done at all.
345 Don’t worry. He will have to work harder than most to prove the he is a member of the human race, He went to Eton, god forbid.
@346:
You’ll forgive me if I don’t find “making women of a certain age’s loins tingle” to be a sufficient qualification to be foreign secretary.
One last thought for the night. I wonder if Rod, Roger, Gabble and co are paid for out of Grodon’s secret slush fund. If so Brown’s wasting his party’s (as well as the taxpayer’s) money too!
Toodle Pip!
Grodon = Gordon doh!
347 For Rod, you filter out any poll that shows the Conservatives doing better than he expects, or Labour doing worse.
338. Kalman already performs that admirably. No other polling house is consistently “the outlier”. ARS are simply on another planet compared with the rest of the industry.
Anyhow, I’ll do it my way, you do it yours. We’ll soon know who’s right.
Mike, it makes perfect sense to combine polls which are statistically indistinguishable, even if they are from different polling houses.
332 - Why are you bothering with the polls anyway? Once upon are a time you were scornfully dismissive of them as our swingback theory is based entirely on by-elections: thus the result is ‘preordained’ anyway even if the range is so ludicrously high (the outer limit being a swing of 8.5%).
But, in all honesty, there really is no point in having any sort of argument either way as we are only weeks away from the real event.
346-ChristinaD- I said exactly that some weeks ago, but it seems that you posted his name right!
I’m going to bugger off! Nothing to do with the above and those who bitch about Rory Stewart can bugger off!
Just look at some of the westminster MPs from Labour/LD!!!! 
A massive improvement - I think Rory has done some sort of walk through the Penrith and the Border. What i would do if i were him is upgrade his wiki page! 
Yes he has a safe seat but anyone who has governed a Afhganistan region and done the shit he has is upto representing folk in westminster!
No more polls tonight then?
The Wrath of Crosby:
http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/01/04/is-there-anything-to-learn-from-jan-2005-polls/#comment-1369897
Off topic, my mother stunned me today. My parents came visiting - I’d fended them off all week, trying to recuperate - and the subject turned to politics for some reason. My father announced that he wasn’t going to vote for anyone who was in a political party - he’s a good example of the alienated voter (my father’s son, eh?).
My mother tchah’d at this and told him that was a wasted vote for sure, but then announced that she really wished that she could vote for William Hague to be Prime Minister. She didn’t really take to David Cameron anywhere near as much and she thought that William Hague would have been a super Prime Minister, but he had just been Conservative party leader at the wrong time. She would vote for the Conservatives anyway, but it was quite clearly going to be done out of a sense of duty rather than pleasure.
I threw the name of Boris Johnson into the mix: “ooh yes” she said “he’d be WONDERFUL”. His appearances on Have I Got News For You linger long in her memory.
None of this is going to affect the election, since my parents live in Tim Yeo’s constituency. But I was interested to see just how unenthused they both were. If they are in any way typical, betting on a high turnout is going to be brave indeed. Meanwhile, I have to absorb the fact that my mother is a secret Hagueite. These are strange days indeed.
354 Quite.
The argument always shifts, in terms of the data that is used, but the conclusion is always the same, that the Conservatives won’t win an overall majority.
359. I don’t known why you are surprised by that.
I think I may have met your mother, many times over.
356 Martin. It’s as well for you that exclaimation marks and smilie faces aren’t taxed !!!
:-) 
Can’t see if these links have been posted:
Gordon Brown’s anti-Blair slush fund:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1243837/Secrets-Gordon-Brown-s-Fund-With-No-Name-oust-Tony-Blair-PM.html
Brown to Blair: “I’ll Bring You Down With Sleaze”:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1243766/Chancellor-Gordon-Brown-screamed-Ill-bring-sleaze-PM-Tony-Blair-night-Donorgate-exploded-public-view.html
Blair: “Find me some sick children”:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1243827/Tony-Blair-Find-obviously-sick-children.html
360 - Indeed, but I suppose we can take modest solace that this is one of his more innocuous obsessions. Of all the many wagers I’ve made for the generak election, relieving him of some dosh will be the most satisfying.
361 - I was stunned for a few reasons. I’d rather got the impression that she liked David Cameron a lot. She votes Lib Dem at a local level and she is more like a Congregationalist Christian Democrat than a Tory by inclination. My father is the longtime devotee of Margaret Thatcher.
Calling Antifrank!!
Have just sent you an urgent email - if you could reply back or give me a call on the mobile that would be great - many thanks!!
Apologies, I’d not refreshed my browser tab and didn’t see the links posted.
365 Good man!!!
66 - Double Carpet, if you intend to have a thread on the latest Peter Watt revelations, could you hold it back until tomorrow afternoon as I have run out of pop-corn and need time to pop down to the shops. Ta.
Sorry, I know it is quite predictable, but I do find the story by Peter Watt of tens of thousands of pounds being spent on a livelink by satellite to Bill Clinton for a ‘Make Poverty History’ gig such a juxtaposition with them hiring an ‘Apocalypse Now’ fleet of choppers for electioneering…
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1243827/Tony-Blair-Find-obviously-sick-children.html#ixzz0cogdJO8V
Sorry, it might just be me, but I think these stories are worse than last week’s revelations by Peter Watt and the Gordon Slush Fund may not be breaking the law, but it just looks so vindictive and petty.
Again, hardly news to the political class, but a lot of the TB-GB stuff has been ‘nudge and wink’ unsubtantiated rumour and political speculation. This book may not be chapter and verse fact but it will resonate enough to cause electoral impact.
Especially if Gordon starts shaking the same people’s hands again in this campaign…
365 Actually since she votes LD at local level, I don’t think I have met her. It’s the old guard who love William.
Your dad on the other hand, I might have bumped into!
Is this new?
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6991087.ece
“A “SECRET and personal” letter from Jack Straw, the then foreign secretary, to Tony Blair reveals damning doubts at the heart of government about Blair’s plans for Iraq a year before war started.
The letter, a copy of which is published for the first time today, warned the prime minister that the case for military action in Iraq was of dubious legality and would be no guarantee of a better future for Iraq even if Saddam Hussein were removed.”
“Implying Blair was already seeking an excuse for war, it warned of two legal “elephant traps”. It states “regime change per se is no justification for military action” and “the weight of legal advice here is that a fresh [UN] mandate may well be required”.”
365. OMG! I’ll read this tomorrow, but on the face of it this looks much worse than last weeks expose!
No wonder Gab’s has vanished back into the Bunker.
363 Yet……
This slush fund of gordons may have to be investigated because if he has not declared it as income to the party or private income or expenses or private donations under parliamentary rules then frankly its highly illegal.
I dare say keeping the details in a exercise book would smack of illegal book-keeping.
369-We all have done that at some point!
front pages
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/Sundays-Papers—Newspaper-Front-Pages-Sunday-January-17-2010/Media-Gallery/201001315526213?lpos=Home_Left_Promo_Region_0&lid=GALLERY_15526213_Sundays_Papers_-_Newspaper_Front_Pages_Sunday%2C_January_17%2C_2010
The Express seems to have stopped yet another Brown relaunch in it’s tracks….
“Carole Caplin’s warning for Gordon Brown’s new ‘guru’ Helen Scott Lidgett
Acutely aware that three live television debates will be a crucial part of the general election campaign, Gordon Brown has made an intriguing new appointment.”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/gordon-brown/7005879/Carole-Caplins-warning-for-Gordon-Browns-new-guru-Helen-Scott-Lidgett.html
More left hand - right hand from the Labour rabble
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/life_and_style/education/article6991098.ece
“STUDENTS from middle-class families may be denied grants and cheap loans and be charged higher tuition fees under a “double whammy” to be considered by a government review of university funding.
It could add nearly £7,000 a year to the cost of university for a student from a family with an income of £50,000 a year.”
now what was that Gordo was saying earlier?
Tories = Fat bottom women
A queen song!
But men would rather nail fat bottom women than nothing at all!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
365 They are worth posting twice!
The Wrath of Crosby [at 346] - Brilliant!
282.”Did anybody see the Rory Stewart programme on BBC2. It was brilliant. If I was Cameron I’d be quite worried”
Mike, gulp, got to disagree with you on this. If I was Cameron I would be delighted that his drive to shake up the selection process was producing this calibre of candidate. For too long, the make up of his party was part of the problem that was making the brand so toxic. I think he is genuine in his attempts to broaden out the make up of his Westminster party. And with Afghanistan and the middle East one of the top priorities in his in tray, along with the economy if he becomes PM. Rory Stewart would be a valuable asset to his team.
242.That is an absolutely damning report in the Times, we all knew it, but from those critics. Ouch!
So its Downing Street vs Treasury and Cabinet Office. That will be Brown/Balls and Mandy vs Darling/Harman and the rest of them.
375 It looks to me as the revelations are going to get worse (if thats possible, these are apalling) as time goes on, Watt certainly knows “where the bodies are buried”
Double Carpet - email sent, thanks for taking such care. Since my entry is more pin the tail on the donkey than superscience, I’m not hopeful.
MTF - given your username, you would say that!
SallyC - my parents are both very typical of many late 60s couples in many ways and would be happy to be thought of as such. They are the sort of people that have simple aspirations of the sort that Gordon Brown thinks he should connect with but never ever will. My mother, incidentally, feels quite sorry for him. She would never vote for him though.
Hello, what do we have here then?
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6991021.ece
“Baroness Uddin caught in second expenses row”
“THE Labour peer Baroness Uddin may face a fresh fraud inquiry following the discovery of a second “home” address which she used to claim £91,000 expenses.”
This Labour lot makes the tories pre 97 seem quite decent really.
349. Martin Coxhall - for once I heartily agree.
The last Foreign Secretary who thought he was a matinee idol was David Owen - and look what has happened to him.
“TORY turncoat Quentin Davies is being lined up for a seat in the House of Lords.”
http://www.newsoftheworld.co.uk/news/684668/Tory-turncoat-to-be-rewarded-with-seat-in-the-House-of-Lords.html
386 My mother is 70. She loves William. She would happily knee Gordon in the goollies.
I think she is typical, but it could just be the circles I mix in.
SallyC - And they are worth reading twice before bedtime..
Gordon is not going to be in the best mood tomorrow.
Love the Sunday Express headline
“Robber Brown”
Another Nokia bites the dust
389 He really is a piece of scum, like his niece.
379. Wonder if she is related to J. Scott Lidgett, a Baptist minister who led the Progressives on the LCC and then torpedoed Lloyd George’s Council of Action in ‘35 with a last-minute endorsement of the National Government?
Anyone see the story at the bottom of the Observer? Headline is something like “Hoon denied soldiers equipment that could save lives”… Just before his appearance at Chilcot.
Do we know anything about this?
“A YouGov poll in 43 Labour marginals shows that nearly half the respondents were more likely to vote Tory if Cameron backed a 50,000 cap.”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6991051.ece
Project Cake - Crikey, life at Number 10 begins to resemble a Chris Morris spoof…
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1243766/Chancellor-Gordon-Brown-screamed-Ill-bring-sleaze-PM-Tony-Blair-night-Donorgate-exploded-public-view.html
Worth repeating that Peter Watt must a be a shoo-in to be a consultant if the Thick Of It team decide to make another cinema film.
395- It is probably about that Times story from a week ago.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6982440.ece
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/leading_article/article6991009.ece
“Battle for the beleaguered middle classes”
“Any sinner who repents should be welcomed but this is the man who as chancellor squeezed the middle classes with stealth taxes. Many in the middle classes, including those who work in the state sector, are fed up with footing the bill for Labour’s wasteful public spending splurge, its inability to drive through improvements in public sector inefficiency and its failure to reform welfare.
This, too, is the prime minister who just a few weeks ago was taking a swipe at David Cameron over his private education. Maybe he had forgotten that many middle-class parents make big sacrifices to send their children to private schools, or use expensive private tutors, to bypass some of the inadequate state secondary schools.
So we should be surprised but perhaps not amazed by the gall of a prime minister who has shifted from a Labour “core vote” strategy to an attempt to seize the votes of middle Britain.”
393. I wouldn’t quite go that far Sean F, I mean, she has been convicted of murder.
365 - it’s another big pile of evidence to go on the ever-increasing ‘Gordon Brown is a nutcake’ pile.
393. [Unusually] Restrained of The Sun not to mention her.
Antifrank - email sent back with your full set of predictions, hopefully all sorted now!!
Many thanks & good luck.
401, Trouble is, everyone knows Gords a complete and total nutter! There comes a point when people stop being shocked at stuff like this. Theres only so many times you hear that Gord threw a phone. Gord ranted and raved at someone. Gord spent his entire time as Chancellor making Tones life a misery, before the effect starts to wear off. I think we reached that point some time (about the time it was revealed Gordon was being “medicated” infact)
However, all of the stories will further damage Labours chances of revival with the British electorate, long after Gordon Brown is (a stain on) history.
Labour = The Party that got rid of their most succesful leader ever for an untested nutter and didn’t even elect him as leader.
Labour = Spanners!
393
399. I am a great advocate that we as a country are overpopulated at the moment with a population of 61 million, and that it should remain so.
My only concern is that in 20 years or so 50% of the population will be over 50, and maybe over 70. Almost half of these will need some sort of care. Having been in hospital recently, I realise that caring for geriatrics is very labour intensive, and that we will need to ‘import’ maybe a million just to look after these people.
361.Antifrank, that anecdote doesn’t surprise me at all. I found that Cameron is not wowing the older females that are leaning Conservative, but they will vote Tory to get rid off Brown and Labour. Its the middle age group of female voters that I am finding that have been won over by Cameron rather than the Tories in particular, and they have not been voting for them during the New Labour years.
Gordon talks about looking after people who want to aspire to better.
So why is he putting up the taxes of a person from a workig class background who now earns over £100,000pa by £4,000pa?!
Gordon = a c???
Evening all.
Just a quick reply to a couple of post aimed to me since I’ve been out all evening - before I go to bed and forget!
Kristin: When I said I won EuroMillions, I didn’t mea the jackpot but a somewhat more modest total!
Polling subsamples: We all laugh at them because, in VI terms, they’re up and down like the proverbial. In terms of this one, it’s possible it’s getting the right answer for the wrong reason, which is to say that it has no right to. But I’d be highly surprised if the SNP hadn’t commissioned an all-Scotland poll with the hopes of a press release headed “Scots demand SNP’s inclusion in debates” - and I draw my own conclusions from the lack of such a release.
On topic: YouGov no change, ComRes Tory lead widens: result, RodCrosby says the Tory lead narrows.
Best bit:
“To Gordon’s annoyance, Tony wanted to do one last session of Prime Minister’s Questions in the Commons before he went.
He had it all planned – he wanted to give a little speech, say goodbye, take off his glasses with a flourish, and walk out of the chamber.
If he was to get his way, it would mean that although Gordon was now leader of the Labour Party, he would have to wait until after PMQs the following Wednesday to become Prime Minister.
Gordon was furious. ‘I’m the leader of the Labour Party on Sunday, and I’m Prime Minister on Monday,’ he huffed.”
You can actually see the rattle being thrown out of the pram and the arms folded across the chest.
quentin davies is vermin like whatsisname in st helens woodward
406 should read ” maybe 20% over 70″
411. Woodard left and Dave filled his seat.
Fair exchange.
just for Plato - the Sunday Times reports that the BBC is considering dropping the Met Office in favour of a commercial rival due to its poor forecasting record.
http://entertainment.timesonline.co.uk/tol/arts_and_entertainment/tv_and_radio/article6991064.ece
personally have my doubts - contract up for renewal, BBC wanting a cheaper service, story planted in press looks more likely. However did note in the report that Met Office had lost other big commercial contracts, with businesses who depend for commercial success in getting seasonal goods on and off the shelves. The Met Office is one of the Brown/Darling targets for their distress sale of UK assets and news like this can’t help efforts to get a good price.
413 its good value really.
Lose a ****. Gain the greatest PM of the 21st century!
PS how’s the football?!
389. I thought for a second you were going to say that Quentin Davies was lined up to shot at dawn on May 7th.
Should read:
416.389. I thought for a second you were going to say that Quentin Davies was lined up to be shot at dawn on May 7th.
414. I don’t believe that for a minute Ted. Most of the BBC forecasters are Met Office employee’s, so it would mean a major staffing upheval also.
415 Had better days.
Had [much] worse too.
383. David Herdson.
Um, thank you!
I would have loved to have seen Quentin Davies stand as Labour candidate in Grantham, just as I’d like to have seen the Tory MPs for Stratford and Leominster to have stood as Labour candidates.
409. “But I’d be highly surprised if the SNP hadn’t commissioned an all-Scotland poll with the hopes of a press release headed ‘Scots demand SNP’s inclusion in debates’ - and I draw my own conclusions from the lack of such a release.”
Oh dear. If your previous objection - and we can ‘draw our own conclusions’ from the fact that you aren’t bothering to defend it anymore - was thin, we now appear to have moved on to the truly threadbare.
383. David Herdson.
Um, Live long and prosper!
This cat is going to St helens to bite shaun woodward…
http://jcfields.files.wordpress.com/2009/08/black_kitten1.jpg
419
we might be playing exeter next season!!
416-Sorry to disappoint you!
421 scotland =
407.antifrank, I should add that my mum couldn’t believe that the Labour party would elect Gordon Brown as their leader when Tony went. She really couldn’t believe that they would be that stupid, she never saw him as PM material, and she votes Libdem! Both my parents did for years because of their local MP Russell Johnston, but my dad finally went Tory in 2005. We thought that the sky would fall in when that happened!
426 con gain inverness 2010 cheerio snp
409 Kristin: When I said I won EuroMillions, I didn’t mea the jackpot but a somewhat more modest total!
Ah well still a win.
back home from a swift three at the pub…
Just for Mike’s sake - to lay to rest the “you can’t average” canard…
Taking these two polls, field dates a day apart.
both Z-test and Chi-Squared test say:
We cannot reject the null hypothesis that both these polls are sampling from the same population.
Therefore it makes sense to pool the polls, giving…
Con 40.66%
Lab 30.34%
LD 18.33%
Oth 10.67%
Only fractionally different from what the Kalman filter currently says, which takes this a stage further by taking previous and subsequent polls into consideration, calculating maximum liklihood estimators for the true levels of support for each and every day…
421 James Kelly
You have to admit that LondonStatto has come up with a new addition to the Unionist Bingo card.
“The lack of any evidence on anything, proves that the SNP conducted a poll and suppressed the evidence”!
427.Ave it, I am sorry to report that I think it will Libdem hold Inverness.
Even the SNP crew around his patch like Danny Alexander, even though he is a complete plonker on the TV!
I remember him being on Five Live after PMQ’s one day, knew it was him when he mentioned his local. As its mine when I am at home, no surprise, bit of a legend locally.
429 so that means Con = win, clare curtis-thomas-tansley =
!!!
431 ok we will let ld have one seat in scotland, con gain ross cheerio kennedy, and con gain thurso cheerio thurso!!!
432. Labour are selecting for Sefton Central tonight, I understand…
http://www.liverpooldailypost.co.uk/liverpool-news/regional-news/2010/01/14/four-fight-for-labour-candidacy-in-sefton-central-hotseat-92534-25597663/
Cameron was up in Aintree (which rejoins the seat) last week
http://www.champnews.com/html/newsstory.asp?id=8022
430.oldnat, I have lived in Scotland most of my life, apart from a few forays abroad because of my Dad’s career in the military. And until I discovered PB.com, and the SNP on here, I have never heard the term Unionist to describe those that vote SNP. Seriously, and I have close family down in the Central belt, good old Irish Catholic Labour stock. To me, the name Unionist is something that belongs to Northern Ireland politics, and I think that the SNP make a mistake in defining those that oppose them in this way.
Hope you don’t mind me pointing this out, but I think the SNP are on stronger ground when they are trying to pitch to the majority as a political party, instead of defining them as the enemy in this way.
411. woodward might be a traitor to the party, but he is competent..
435.Oops, those that don’t vote SNP.
If you’re still there, ScottP
“Geoff Hoon ‘denied Iraq soldiers equipment that could have saved lives’”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2010/jan/17/geoff-hoon-body-armour-iraq
434 LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL!
Read ‘personal life’ section, last sentence of main paragraph!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Claire_Curtis-Thomas
Labour = democracy
435. The ‘Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party’ - the clue may be in the name. Indeed, until 1965 the name of your party was, plain and simply, the ‘Scottish Unionist Party’!
OT: Rumours of more revelations about Gerry Adams and SF in tomorrow’s Sunday Tribune in Ireland after a failed attempt by SF’s solictors to slap an injunction on it. Agai, this is a rumour but we’ll know very soon.
Adams has been caught not only lying in the first order about his reaction to the abuse by his brother of the latters daughter but the story could spread wider.
Adams is in trouble have no doubt and he is fighting hard to keep his previously unassailable position in republican circles…and his leadership.
Con gain everything including sefton central and scotland!!!
If the Tories win will Woodward re-rat. Power is a drug after all. And if he ratted for power, why not re-rat for more?
I can’t decide who’s going to win Sefton Central. Any ideas?
447 we are!
GN all
Sorry if already posted..
“Taxman scares off top sport stars
New rules threaten to drive away some of the biggest overseas names from showcase events in Britain”
….
“For example, if a sports star plays in two tournaments or races in two marathons a year, and one of those events is in Britain, they could be charged 50% tax on half their total annual sponsorship money. ”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/money/tax/article6991066.ece
What a stupid move.
446 - who’d have him back ?
443 I can only suggest that the Unionists became Conservative in 1965 in honour of ChristinaD’s birth
451 -
451. I hope you haven’t told her that, she will believe you.
444.Yokel, I had a gut feeling about this after their very subdued reaction to the Robinson affair. Well, from this side of the waters.
Did the rumour mill not flag all this on both sides before the media caught wind of it all?
This is a fun story of Labour claiming to be preparing to challenge the vote in key constituencies as the campaign has been ‘funded by Ashcroft’.
It would be almost as much fun if they try to take the legal action mentioned. They might really end up broke and a laughing stock.
What they are trying, of course, is to put the frighteners on Cameron without spending money.
What a laugh Cameron must have if he bothers to read this rubbish.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2010/jan/17/labour-tory-ashcroft-cash
447. One view is that it could be very close. (UNS)
Another would have it that Labour could collapse to third, producing a handsome Conservative majority. (tactical unwind)
The LibDems are certainly hoping for the latter…
452.Kristin, are you about next week so I can give you a call? Any night bar Thursday is good for me.
453 I have always found that ChristinaD requires a little bit more persuasion rather than me just telling her something. Normally it requires some reasoned argument and some facts. You should try it some time.
Christina, the Tories are Unionist and have been as James said for some time.
I am amazed you had not heard the term, after all it was coined by the Tories themselves, not by a condescending opposition.
Changing the name on the tin does not change the contents.
432. Rod - sorry, mate, no Hung Parliament.
40.66
30.34
18.33
10.67
Gives a Con majority of 18, using Wells (UKPR).
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/swing-calculator
457 - certainly, any day but Thursday is good for me too, got a long girlie lunch in Edinburgh that day hic.
#438 Given that the Orange order have pledged to help Labour fight the SNP, your family in the cental belt will have to get used to being Unionist.
Strange bedfellows, West of Scotland Labour and the O.O.
454. The story of Gerry’s brother got our before Robinson with Gerry doing a few soft interviews explaining his position in it all..apparently.
This was a case of Gerry getting his retaliation in first but under study none of it stood up. Catholic priest style his brother was sent away for a bit and allowed to stay in positions that he never should have.
We do not know tomorrows story but there is is a guess that it focusses on wider allegations against SF & its military wing particularly in my old area of West Belfast. Sexual abuse was covered up and sexual violence was used a weapon by both republican and loyalist groups. This has been known for years by some but it will still shock plenty if it comes out.
Gerry’s initial story is bull, thats obvious, but theres more to come, if someone can prise this open.
I have no particular knowledge of whats coming next but this could get very messy.
460. Go on, bet the farm then…
A butterfly flapping its wings in Formby pinewoods could result in a hung parliament from those figures…
459. “You should try it some time.”
Oh, I did, mate, I did - at considerable length over months. All I got for my trouble was a load of condescending, passive-aggressive stuff about ‘teenagers’ and the like. So as reason has shown little sign of working thus far, maybe the next time I’ll take a real leaf out of her book and simply call upon family reinforcements.
Ref swingback. Accepting that we shouldn’t average polls, especially when there are different combinations in each one, I’ve done just that for those of 2009. Here they are, split by month (figures are number of polls (in brackets), Con / Lab / LD):
Jan (8): 43.0 / 31.6 / 15.5
Feb (7): 42.6 / 28.9 / 18.0
Mar (9): 41.9 / 30.1 / 17.4
Apr (9): 43.1 / 28.2 / 18.3
May (14): 39.8 / 23.0 / 18.5
Jun (13): 37.8 / 23.2 / 18.4
Jul (8): 40.3 / 25.1 / 19.3
Aug (7): 42.0 / 26.1 / 18.0
Sep (18): 39.3 / 26.5 / 20.3
Oct (23): 41.4 / 27.6 / 18.3
Nov (10): 39.2 / 27.0 / 18.6
Dec (13): 40.1 / 27.8 / 18.6
So, very consistent polling from the Lib Dems, except during their conference during September; the Tories took a hit over expenses but recovered it most of it within a couple of months, losing share again in September (LD / Lab conferences) and November (Lisbon) but bouncing back both times; Labour took a bigger hit over expenses and have steadily recovered most of that ground though they’re still not quite there.
Rod’s observation of swingback is really things just settling back to where they were before Expenses. For Labour to move beyond that position is a challenge of a different order.
463.Yokel, thanks for that. While all the focus has been on the Robinsons’s mess, I felt that the Adams family scandal was going to turn out even bigger and more messy. How do you think this will play with their respective supporters at this time just before a GE? For all the public talk, the ballot box remains private?
446. Try a little more sophisticated analysis.
i) sample-weighted rather than simple averaging.
ii) time series, rather than arbitrary calendar-month averaging.
iii) interpolation of data for missing polls.
Oh, you’re in luck! I just came across this…
http://www.titanictown.plus.com/hp/kalman.png
It would appear that Gordon’s piece in the guardian
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/jan/15/aspiration-mobility-middle-class-labour?showallcomments=true#start-of-comments
linked to earlier today, has not gone quite as well as he may have hoped.
Of 426 comments in 12 hours, 62 of them were deleted by the moderators, about 14.5% of them. Those naughty people not appreciating the time and effort expended by the Great Leader to tell them of his vision.
467. Depends..core areas like West Belfast could remain remarkably resistent despite literally any horrific story. Its not in the North where it matters but the South where it wont go down well.
It’ll be interesting to see if the British establishment try to dig Gerry out (again) or let him float on his own.
435 ChristinaD
The term Unionist doesn’t mean “those who don’t vote SNP”. It means what it has always meant - those who support the Union. The Greens aren’t Unionist. Labour and LDs are.
Of course, I don’t mind you pointing things out. Iwon’t do the same in reverse as I’m sure fitaloon already knows that you like older men in kilts!
All we are waiting for now is a poll that shows Labour on 32% and…
Watch those markets MOVE…
Fastest finger first, remember…
Just back from a nice evening with good wine and food. Anyways, I see that the only polling evidence is that the plot, marriage tax gate etc have had little effect and we seem to have stabilised on 40ish for the Tories around 30 for Labour. Fair enough…
471. “The Greens aren’t Unionist.”
Quite - and neither are the SSP or Solidarity, or Margo MacDonald. Whereas politicians like Tavish Scott have quite openly described themselves as unionist. And (it really ought to go without saying) a party that has the word ‘unionist’ in its own name can certainly have no complaints about being described as unionist!
A unionist is someone who supports the union - it’s not a derogatory term, and unless it’s inaccurately applied I really don’t see what the problem is.
471.oldnat, I know that its meant as a term to describe those that support the Union, but I suspect that most voters of the other parties don’t see themselves in that light. Seriously, after all the shannigans’s with sectarianism in Scotland, the word Unionist on its own to describe the SNP enemy, is I would say confrontational. And if you want to persuade the voters round to your way of thinking, you have to woo them with political argument rather than confront them. It gets people’s backs up, and it immediately draws a dividing line. I really don’t think that some in your party realise this, but its not helpful to the cause. I live in Scotland, and the only time I hear that term used is on PB.com by SNP supporters, or a Scottish blog, again from SNP supporters. Oddly enough, I have never heard one verbally describe the company they are in as Unionist.
I doubt that this term sells on the doorstep either, so why do they feel the need to use it in the blogsphere?
Cameron talks “balls” to Merseyside audience…
http://www.crosbyherald.co.uk/news/crosby-news/2010/01/14/tory-leader-david-cameron-warns-over-inevitable-cuts-68459-25595190/
http://election.ie/2010/01/the-sunday-leads-january-16th-2010/
The abused speak.
I know it’s “unwarranted accuracy” but worth noting that ComRes poll to one decimal place is:
Con 42.3%, Lab 28.6%, LD 18.5%
So Con lead is 13.7% (as opposed to the 13% reported)
474 James Kelly
Exactly. There was no derogatory connotation - simply an accurate description of the common policy of the Con/Lab/LD alliance.
However, I note that the Unionists parties are remarkably unwilling to be accurate in their policy statements/ Have you seen the Tory policies on Health and Education in England. They talk about “Britain” and the “UK”, but the word that is amazingly absent is “England”.
Do you think they are simply ignorant, or just embarrassed that they are having to run two separate campaigns within the same election?
475. “so why do they feel the need to use it in the blogsphere?”
Accuracy of description?
In any case, for my money ‘unionist’ gets people’s backs up a good deal less than the silly ’separatist’ label we endlessly hear chucked about by - dare I say - unionist politicians. As for what goes on in the blogosphere, are we forgetting about “nits” and similar childish name-calling? Unionist is a positively reverential term compared to some of what we regularly hear from the more thuggish CyberTories - and certainly not just directed against the SNP either.
475 ChristinaD
Indeed some people who vote for the Unionist parties are not Unionists - in the same way that some who vote SNP aren’t Nationalist.
It doesn’t alter the fact that you should be proudly proclaiming your Unionism as a party. After all, that’s one of the many things you have in common with the LDs and Labour.
479. “Do you think they are simply ignorant, or just embarrassed that they are having to run two separate campaigns within the same election?”
I don’t think they really are running two campaigns - there’s just some barely legible small print that reads “except for viewers in Scotland”.
We are about to see something hit Sinn Fein that, if it hit any other party, would finish its leadership.
This will eclipse anything dealing with the Robinsons.
I had a post deleted today for having a go at the odious Martin Day creature.
I’d like to know why the rantings of a deluded, genocidal racist are allowed to be expressed freely but negative posts about the aforementioned racist are removed.
Is it because Martin Day is a Tory? Or a ‘good middle class person’ as he said earlier?
It’s because you are a plonker. Simple as that really.
483.Yokel, your are right.
don - My being a plonker does, I assume, have something to do with it, yes.
Do you find people wishing genocide on ethnic minorities as objectionable as you find me, out of interest?
487, I find you repellent, happy now?
488 - I can imagine.
Do you also find Tory supporters wishing genocide on ethnic minorities repellent?
483. Something that SF’s lawyers were apparently trying to get an injunction to block. Sadly most of the sheep who vote for SF will go into denial over it!
488 don(the other one)
You show significant promise as a bigot. I look forward to your progress in this regard.
489, I consider you to be more odious, mainly due to your faux outrage.
410 - London stato
You should always be careful of what you wish for.
I had a text last evening saying there is just such a Scottish poll and I’m told that it shows a majority for SNP inclusion in debates across all parties and a convincing SNP lead for Holyrood.
LET US SEE WHAT THE SUNDAY’S BRING!
490 The Oncoming Storm
It’s going to be interesting if these two NI stories move support towards SDLP and UUP.
492 - The very fact that ‘don’ can only imagine that any outrage expressed over a Tory wishing genocide on ethnic minorities is ‘faux’ speakes volumes.
470.”It’ll be interesting to see if the British establishment try to dig Gerry out (again) or let him float on his own.”
Yokel, I think they will let him float on his own this time, and it will make it a lot easier for them to do the same with the Robinson’s. As of now, these politicians need to answer a lot of questions and explain themselves to their voters in Northern Ireland. And the least said by the Brits, the better right now. This is one of those times where we need to let the electorate make the decisions.
The fact that Martin Day is a tory is neither here nor there, he is obviously a man on the edge. If he was a labour supporter it would make no difference to me.
What he needs is someone to take him to one side and give him some help, not have some spittle flecked self righteous individual calling him a racist and casting aspersions against the owner of this site.
It’s not difficult. His political leanings are neither here nor there, his mental health is.
Now do try and be less odious.
If that is being a bigot, sue me.
Anyone who would wish for genocide against ethnic minorities is mentally disturbed. It excuses nothing.
Martin Day’s disgusting views would be equally repugnant if he were a Labour supporter or a Lib Dem. The fact that he is allowed the chance to air his vomit enducing views is attributable to the fact that he is a Tory and calls Gordon Brown names.
And I think you’re right, Martin Day does need someone to take him aside and have a word with him and help him to get the help he needs. He doesn’t need a gang of slabbering CyberTories on here egging him on to even greater heights of insanity, which is exactly what happens on here every time he posts about ‘one eyed Scottish morons’ and the like.
You should be ashamed.
497 don(the other one)
You do have a human side! I had made no comment about him for similar concerns. However more appropriate to have been less insulting to glesganat, and to have buried, rather than have highlighted this.
498 GlesgaNat
I understand your concerns - but there are others, in less dire circumstances, who are worth of a kicking.
My advice is to leave this particular issue for now.
Mods
It might be worth considering removing my (and others) posts on this particular point.
I would be very grateful if you could point to any post were I have egged him on.
“…The fact that he is allowed the chance to air his vomit enducing views is attributable to the fact that he is a Tory and calls Gordon Brown names…” that is something you need to take up with the owner of this site. Personally I think it is bollocks. Mike has consistently shown no favouritism to any particular group of users on his site.
I have nothing to be ashamed of. Of the two of us, it would appear that I am the one who is the most comfortable in his position. You have said you believe Martin has problems yet it did not stop you publishing your racism rant. If there is any shame to be felt, you need to be looking a little closer to home.
Just been catching up on the threads since getting back from an Aunt’s 80th Birthday Party. Great to see James and Christina are back sparring in the ring.
GlesgaNat, we haven’t been introduced, but you may kick me if you wish. I am sufficiently anaesthetised to withstand any form of kicking tonight.
Whom do I have to offend to start a fight?
oldnat, your post has crossed with mine. I agree that these posts are better deleted.
On the debates - I came across a wonderful new party mentioned on the Cranmer site “the RIP party (Retired Idle Parasites)”. i think I’ll apply for membership!
Pointing out racism (and quite extreme forms of racism) where it exists is an honourable thing to do, rather than a shameful one.
And you’re right, there are no gleeful, slabbering Tories pulling themselves off over Martin’s deranged rants against Gordon Brown, ethnic minorities and ‘lefties’ in general on this site.
But hey, you find complaints against racism more objectionable than racism itself, so perhaps you’re not the best person to discuss this with.
503 - Them’s fightin’ words…
Anyway, I am off to bed, as is my right in a democratic society.
I hope, when I awake, a certain person will have developed a moral compass.
504 don(the other one) and 506 GlesgaNat
Before all this is deleted (and I hope it will be). I recognise that this is Mike’s site, and he is free to have whatever moderation policy he wishes. However, I would respectfully suggest that there is a boundary beyond which posters should not stray, which Mike will recognise.
503 Seth O. Logue
Damn! You may have been sufficiently anaesthetised that I could have beaten you to a pulp in a debate!
But I’m knackered = and off to my pit.
506 GlesgaNat
It is only honourable if own your motives are honourable; if the context is appropriate; if the target is suitable; and if the manner of your objection is civilised.
How about: “Martin, mate. I found that comment about [insert details] offensive. You might want to think about backing off a bit.”
This may or may not work, but it will bring your concern to the attention of Mike S and or his moderators who are in a much better position to intervene as they may see fit.
510 oldnat
No debate tonight. I really just dropped in to take an inventory of your distillery stocks.
I accept there is a connotation with the term unionist, presumably why the conseervatives are in denial about the term as they want people who are not unionist to vote for them in some constituencies where tactical voting may play a role.
But if the pathetic term separatist is dropped by unionists then we will perhaps have a level playing field.
Tories cannot get past the Thatcher stench in Scotland to grab more wavering voters outside their core areas, whereas she is seen as a heroine further south.
Pter from Putney - If you are about, I refer you to your post from yesterday at 3:02pm.
You suggested a ’saver’ on Tory Seats at 9-1 with VC. You can get 12-1 with Ladbrokes if you are quick.
The scheme itself was sound enough and 10-3 Tory Seats 375-424 has its points.
For me, everything is Buy and Sell and I can see a point in time when 375-424 could become a ‘des res’.
FWIW the Betfair markets, small though they are support your scheme.
My philosophy of betting is fairly unique. For me, Politics is just a dowdy form of Big Brother except now and again when something happens.
As when betting on BB I want to make money whatever the eventual result and so long as the Tories or the Labour win I am quite content.
It may seem inconsistent one day to be advocating a Back of CONS sub 325 and a few days later to endorse a scheme for Backing them in the range 375-424, but it isn’t at all.
These Seat Bands are just like BB contestants. They only exist to be Bought and Sold.
514,515 URW - Just up for a glance through the Sundays. Not much to glean from last night’s polls - I keep thinking there will be a decisive shift of opinion one way or the other, but it never seems to happen. A flurry of Labour selections (eg Derby North and Sefton Central) did make me wonder whether there were GE stirrings afoot but probably not - why do parties leave it so late to select their PPCs?
515 URW - Tut, tut as a former pupil of Manchester Grammar School, surely they taught you that things can’t be “quite unique”.
515 …….. having said that you have a great betting philosophy!
514 URW - Drat, I missed Ladbrokes’ 12/1 on the 400-424 seats band, because their prices still don’t feature on Oddschecker.
A big black mark for the Magic Sign.
519 “Your comment is awaiting moderation.”
EH???
NEW THREAD