Do these 1992 approval ratings hold the key?
January 17th, 2010
Should we be waiting for the MORI January numbers?
So in the past week we have had two telephone polls, Populus and ComRes, showing sharpish moves to the Tories while the two online polls have either reported no change (Angus Reid) or Labour moving up a notch and the Tories moving down (YouGov).
Given that one, last night’s YouGov had the gap close to, as they say, “hung parliament territory” what is going on and could the election, after all, see an inconclusive outcome?
There’s one non-voting intention monthly regular, the MORI leader satisfaction ratings, that has a remarkable record over the years of getting it right.
This was the case even in that polling disaster of the 1992 general election when John Major romped in with a national vote margin that was seven clear points larger than what any of the pollsters voting intention surveys had been suggesting.
The question itself asks simply “Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way … Mr Kinnock.. is doing his job as Leader of the Opposition?” in a straightforward non-judgemental way and we have the comforting feature of consistency of approach over several decades. Now there’s a full historical record on the Ipsos-MORI website going back to 1977.
And look at how those Major/Kinnock figures were such a good predictor for 1992 when all the pollsters were so far off the mark when it came to voting intention.
Kinnock was doing a fair bit better than Brown is doing now while John Major, still gaining the benefit on not being Mrs Thatcher, had somewhat better numbers than David Cameron is seeing now.
The January MORI leader satisfaction numbers should be out during the next week.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
Crikey, first.
Brown is doing worse than Kinnock and of course Kinnock took most of the blame for Labour failing to win in 1992. Whether that was the correct analysis in 1992 is another matter of course.
Major’s ratings were a lot higher than most people might have remembered they were.
1 – Ladies first,
Wow, those really were astonishing figures for Major - what a vote winner he was for the Tories!
By contrasst, what an dreadful mistake Kinnock’s ill-judged “Well alright” speech was for Labour. To this day I remember watching this on TV and turning to Her Indoors asking in all seriousness “Do you think he’s just blown it?”
Leaders ratings are important, very important. Goodbye Gordon.
People forget that Major was incredibly popular in 1991 during the First Gulf War. I think he was a nice change from Thatcher - even for people who thought Thatcher was the best thing since sliced bread.
Having never heard of Rory Stewart, I wondered what all the comments on here were about, so read his entry in Wikipaedia. Bloody hell.
6 “Bloody hell” is right and he’s only just 37 years of age.
PBers often have a good poke about Eton and Old Etonians, but would he have achieved so much, so early in life with a different upbringing?
7 -
Do you think we need more Old Etonians like that in parliament?
2, I certainly was suprised to see Major’s approval ratings, they loom a bit like Obama’s
6, Svejk - the book he wrote on his walk across Afghanistan seems to command quite a preium as it’s OOP. I wonder if he will think of a reprint now his profile is much higher. I missed the programme last night but pleased to see part one is now on iplayer. The youtube ofa lecture he gave is worth watching. Quite a chap.
loom = look
preium = premium
grr.. insomnia not a good partner for typing accuracy.
8 Yes, definitely. Aren’t you in favour of electing MPs who have exceptional ability?
8 Millsy, wot instead of postmen and dinner ladies ?
Off topic. Philippe Magnan has bet big on Brown to win the MA Senate seat on Tuesday. He may well be onto something, based on this latest poll. What is making me believe now that Brown may indeed pull it off is contained in the last para - Brown has won those who have already sent in postal ballot 58/42. If this ratio is an indicator of resolve to vote, Republicans are significantly more fired up:
“MA Sen Poll: Brown Leads By 3
Posted by Mike Memoli | Email This | Permalink | Email Author
In one of the final public polls we should see before Tuesday’s special election on Massachusetts, American Research Group (600 LVs, 1/12-14, MoE +/- 4%) finds Republican Scott Brown with a slight edge over Martha Coakley.
“Special Election Matchup
Brown (R) 48
Coakley (D) 45
Kennedy (I) 2
Und 5
“Coakley loses one-in-five Democrats to Brown, while the Republican state senator has 94 percent of Republicans behind him. Brown has a commanding 58-37 advantage among “unenrolled” voters, mainly independents and those who prefer not to register affiliation with the major parties.
“A trend worth noting as well: 9 percent of voters say they’d already cast a ballot through absentee voting. Brown leads Coakley among this group 58-42.”
13- Let’s hope he’s the only ‘Brown’ winning anything this year!
6 et seq.
It isn’t every day that a Tory PPC pens a 6,000-word article for the New York Review of Books:
Afghanistan: What Could Work
Old Etonians are merely filling the vacuum created by the disaster of state education. But a familiar voice will soon remind us that the ‘trust-fund kids’ are unworthy to lick the mud from a Cheshire farmer’s boots.
1. It’s a risky strategy to write “Crikey, first” instead of “First”. If you do, there is a probability of 86% that the time it takes to write “Crikey, ” will be more than enough to allow someone else to get in first with “First” first.
6. Wasn’t there a thread here about Rory a while ago?
———-
SeanT I have written 30,000 words of my new thriller. In 14 days. Just thought you all ought to know. That’s a quarter of a 500 page book.
I am, at the very least, confident of winning the Fastest Writing of Large Amounts of Complete Bollocks in a Fortnight Award for 2010.
Is that going to be its title then?
Animal Farm by George Orwell has 30,194 words.
I spent two months writing Genesis Secret and it earned me a London flat.
How big would your house be if you hadn’t spent zillions of pounds on prostitutes, drugs, wild women and alcohol?
—————
Mike Smithson …how can Hague become foreign secretary with someone like Stewart in the wings?
Easy - it would not be practical to appoint Rory as Fon Setry straight away. He would have to get used to being an MP for a while. A year or two would be suitable. But Rory Stewart will definitely be on the front bench within four years, otherwise he’ll just get bored with being a backbench MP dealing with constituents’ drains, and will otherwise give up being an MP and become an ambassador or something.
Martin Coxall SHUTUP about Rory Stewart. We’ve all been to rubbish countries, and most of us have had floppy hair at one point. It doesn’t make you special.
We haven’t all beeen the governor of an Afghan province at the age of 26 or walked 6000 miles in 500 days.
Kinnock was doing a fair bit better than Brown is doing now while John Major, still gaining the benefit on not being Mrs Thatcher, had somewhat better numbers than David Cameron is seeing now.
Seems pretty consistent with what the regular voting intention polls are showing right now, doesn’t it? Start with the Major (41.9%) vs Kinnock (34.4%) general election numbers, knock a bit off the Tory score and a bit more off the Labour score, and you’d end up with something like a 40% to 30%. Which looks like a small Tory majority, but only a couple of gaffes or badly-timed announcements away from either a decent-sized Tory majority or NOM.
Sky reporting that ‘chemical’ Ali has been sentenced to death.
OK, tried averaging those numbers out. Cameron 8 points below Major, Brown 10 points below Kinnock. So I was too mean to Brown in knocking 3.4% off Kinnock’s score when I only knocked 1.9% off Major’s.
Hung Parliament. Tee-hee.
A large element of the bias inherent in the FPTP voting system in disadvantaging the Conservative Party is differential turnout: i.e. Conservative MPs in Bumpkinshire get 29,000 votes on a turnout of 80% whereas Labour MPs in Glumton get 11,000 votes on a turnout of 50%. It would be fun if the opinion polls were roughly correct (40/30/20) but the differential turnout were weighted the other way round. Let the 30% voting Labour be made up of 45,000 people voting Labour in Bootle, and let the 40% voting Conservative be made up of 15,000 each in four times as many constituencies. This could be combined with unwinding and reversal of tactical voting, and Labour being systematically unlucky in loads of 3-way marginals in Scotland.
18. that must be the fourth time he’s been sentenced to death since 2007…
20# The solution John is for Tories to move en masse to Bootle with all those hooligan chappies from Bumpkinshire with all those nice country pubs.
Played golf in Bootle once…., lost more balls to the locals scurrying across fairways nicking balls than I did in the rough.
(Never went back of course.)
19 - You’re looking at the wrong differential, Edmund.
The key is the difference is the gap between Kinnock and Major compared to the gap between Cameron and Brown.
Cameron is, on average, 2 1/2 points greater in his lead over Brown than Major was over Kinnock.
Major’s average lead was 14.6; the polling result was a 7.5% gap.
Cameron’s average lead is 17 points; that would give a minimum polling lead of 9% for the parties.
That’s not hung parliament but it isn’t a landslide by any means either.
Fortunately for the Conservatives, I fully expect to see Brown’s ratings fall away/the gap open wider as the full extent of this government’s fiscal lunacy comes into the open if/when Labour produce a fantasy budget and after the Q1 2010 figures show a return to negative GDP performance (even assuming Q4 2009 shows anything other than +/-0.1% and also that Labour haven’t called the election prior to the April release date for Q1 2010 data).
Id @23, I make it 15.7 for Major’s average lead, not 14.6. Probably not much point in arguing about it, though, as there are enough arbitrary assumptions in there to dwarf our little 1%. (Hence the “tee-hee”…)
25 - It’s 15.7 if you only take the same number of data points. I was taking Major’s average lead over the course of the whole series which is more indicative when considering how the series impacts the final poll result.
As I say, Cameron’s leads over Brown will increase. There’s no way they can’t given the economic/political considerations.
As proof of my 25, I give you http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6991086.ece
How can Brown retain even his current miserable level of support as all the dirty washing is bought out into the open?
26, by having the BBC provide PPBs for Labour via a champagne socialist who also appears on Loose Women?
7
Old Etonians they do so much for their country don’t they!
Guy Francis de Moncy Burgess was born at 2 Albemarle Villas, Devonport, Plymouth, England the elder son of Commander Malcolm Kingsford de Moncy Burgess RN and his wife, Evelyn Mary, daughter of William Gillman. He attended Lockers Park Prep School and then a period at Eton College. Burgess spent two years at the Royal Naval College, Dartmouth, but poor eyesight ended his naval prospects and he returned to Eton.
Betraying it, for example.
Blogpost from Cranmer regarding Shariah corporal punishment:
http://archbishop-cranmer.blogspot.com/2010/01/ed-balls-permits-corporal-punishment-in.html
‘Brian Moore: poll tax led to Scots slam win’
- Former England hooker says hatred of the Thatcher government inspired the Scottish rugby union team to victory in 1990
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/scotland/article6991082.ece
28, that’s ridiculous. It’s like pointing to Mel Gibson as proof that all Americans are tw@ts.
Morning all, off to watch Andy Marr and Nick Clegg convince one another there will be a hung parliament.
Presumably Brown is hoping after his speech yesterday that his ratings will improve. However, given the following two statements are utterly incompatible
1) We will halve the deficit
2) The middle classes will be miraculously unaffected
Then for me at least his rationgs have declined further still. He has no credibility lefft.
How can he say these things with a straight face? We just have to fervently hope that the electorate are not taken in by his lies.
31
I thought it wasn’t unfair to point out that not all Old Etonians have been, exemplary, in fact I’m sure quite a few haven’t been.
Ah! Americans would probably say Gibson is an Australian.
‘If I’m right Germans will call me a German and Jews will call me a Jew, if I’m wrong Germans will call me a Jew and Jews will call me a German.
A. Einstein.
JohnLoony, as one who, er, might be expected to have an opinion - did you see the Rory Stewart programme, and if so, did you think he was one of the ugliest blokes you’ve ever seen?
Quite impressed with his list of achievements so far though, although not sure about the walking 6000 miles thing - why?? Smacks ever so slightly of “tosser”…
Interesting programme about Lawrence, although no revelations really.
Muckguire spinning away on the Andy marr show..
35 And Volderman enjoying the Mail
11 and 12.
Saw last couple of days that the House of Commons has produced an “idiots guide” to arithmetic as the current MPs need to be told what, for example, percentages are. No wonder government is so bad when the quality of our MPs is so poor.
37: As they’re all lawyers all they can think of is in terms of 15 (minutes)
The only problem with these figures is that Blair’s average lead over Major was lower than Cameron’s over Brown and Blair’s campaign returned a landslide.
I guess we can’t read too much into the figures.
On the other hand, to see the real comparison, we have to go back to Foot in 83 - as Brown has managed to take the overall Labour voting intention percentage lower than Foot during his Premiership.
Thatcher’s lead over Foot averaged nearly 29 1/2 points, with Foot barely making late teens/early twenties.
All this goes to show is that Brown’s ratings can and will fall alot further before the election as economic failings become more widely recognised as being his fault and other bad news about the government/behaviour of ministers/general incompetence gains wider distribution.
If Kevin Pieterson flashes at a wide ball without moving his feet we will call him a South African.
Now how many times has Maguire been chaufferued from his million pound plus home in Richmond to appear on the beeb this week?
he is attacking Clegg, another one who is worried about the Mansion Tax perhaps?
Peter Watts is pretty damming over Gordon Brown. The fall out after the election and the stories spinning out of it is going to be brilliant.
Peter Watt was very impressive - anyone who wants to knock him will find it hard after that.
Love to see an indepth interview with him
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/iraq/7006751/Alastair-Campbell-issues-garbled-retraction-over-his-evidence-to-the-Chilcot-Inquiry.html
Panic setting in……
This is more like the England I’ve grown up with.
I see that Edward Macmillan Scott is having another whinge on Comment is Free (this must be the about the 200th) about how nasty the Conservatives were to him.
Just a thought, I doubt if the archive goes back that far, but what were the leadership percentages for Callaghan and Thatcher prior to ‘79, they’d be interesting.
Peter Watt, (nice tie) lets see now, when a government has been in power for some time, people in it and associated with it, start to break up into factions and warring groups: never happened before has it!
Ah! John Major and his Cabinet of chums, chums who within two years, were, ‘Bastards’
46. I’m sure he has the rapt attention of the nation…
Cleggs not doing bad, although he does have the freedom to say whatever he likes without having to follow through on it.
Peter Watts allegations are spit in the ocean. Today Sinn Fein faces allegations that would absolutely murder any other Uk or Irish political party.
Claims of the cover up of sexual abuse. Claims that an elected member of SF was directly involved in some of that abuse in the SF heartland of West Belfast. SF had the lawyers out trying to stop the stories (published in the Sunday Tribune). They failed.
Somehow the newspaper has managed to get two victims of this to tell their stories. I have absolutely no doubt that this went on for the simple reason that its been known that sexual violence was used by both members of loyalist & republican groups and allowed to pass because of their positions. This was flagged up years back by sexual abuse support groups here.
I know over there the media has been farting about with Iris Robinson and her 54 lovers but shes gone and her husband may yet (though hes going to have a tough job) return if the financial corruption stories turn out to be true. This is a different order of magnitude. It puts SF in the level of the paedophile priest scandal and it puts Gerry Adams in the firing line not least over his brother who got shifted like some man of the cloth with a liking for children.
SF’s supporters have moved their defence of Adams from saying he’s telling the truth to saying that its a campaign to get Gerry which gives you due warning that they havent got a leg to stand on.
This is genuinely nasty stuff and if the rumours are correct, some within the republican movement themselves are supporting the stories coming out.
34 I think the full and correct quote is
“If relativity is proved right the Germans will call me a German, the Swiss call me a Swiss citizen, and the French will call me a great scientist. If relativity is proved wrong the French will call me a Swiss, the Swiss will call me a German, and the Germans will call me a Jew.’
The other, related, quote is
“By an application of the theory of relativity to the taste of readers, today in Germany I am called a German man of science, and in England I am represented as a Swiss Jew. If I come to be represented as a bête noire, the descriptions will be reversed, and I shall become a Swiss Jew for the Germans and a German man of science for the English”
It is entirely typical of coldstone to mangle the quote.
50 Yokel - I saw this last night when you posted the link to frontpages.
It is a shocker as you say. As someone with only a passing knowledge of NI politics, I was stunned/deeply impressed that this has made it into print - the victims/journalists are very brave.
Is Clegg’s “local immigration” policy falling apart on live TV faster than the Mansion Tax?
50. Any electoral consequences likely, though, Yokel?
After all, this organisation has continued to receive lots of votes despite being involved in the sadistic murder and torture of innocent people over many years.
paulwaugh
Clegg sounding flaky on ‘regional’ immigration policy. How on earth wd u police it? #marr
53 It made no sense to me.
53: Wibbly Wobbly describes it. In fact I think Marr thought up the policy as an interview point, Clegg lept upon it, and has seemed to make it offical policy in about 10seconds.
He’s really weak on many fronts really.
I truly haven’t a clue what Clegg was saying about restrictions on movement within the UK. Can someone explain?
Have I missed a discussion on this eye popping story: http://www.mirror.co.uk/celebs/news/2010/01/16/n-dubz-singer-dappy-slammed-for-death-threat-texts-115875-21971573/ ?
The expression “You could not make this up” is overused both in general and on here, but The Thick of It would never get away with this storyline: in the course of an anti-bullying campaign the BBC illegally disclose to a friend of Ed Balls the telephone number of a member of the general public; the friend of Ed Balls uses the number to make repeated, explicit death threats.
Since the friend was (I assume from his name and profession) from a racial minority and there were therefore strong odds against his victim being of the same race, they were very probably racially aggravated death threats. That is a crime worth about 7 to 10 years jail time in the real world but because the friend of Ed Balls is a friend of Ed Balls all that happens is that a statement is issued indicating that his behaviour was probably mildly undesirable.
There is no doubt about it: bullying, harassment and racism and contempt for the law are at the very core of the Labour Party.
Marr
The subtext I think the BBC are pushing for in their election output - a Lib Lab left liberal coalition. That’s their goal.
England 134 for 8.
paulwaugh
Clegg in danger of sounding like he’s in a PPE tutorial. “I start from the premiss” “lets go back to.first principles” etc
58.
Mental wasn’t it? We don’t even know who is coming in and going out again, let alone whether some immigrant is living in Spalding or Hackney. Bizarre stuff.
Has Clegg just said the truth that dare not speak its name?
“It is wholly implausible that LDs will sit round a cabinet table without fundamental reform in parliamentary reform” IIRC
Off topic, I’ve put a new post up on pb2 about the next Labour leadership election:
http://politicalbetting.blogspot.com/2010/01/next-labour-leader-assessing-field.html
60. More than that, I think it represents something like nirvana for the BBC consciousness.
61: For the Lib Dems thats basically all they play at. Clegg looks absolutely terrified at the prospect of actually having to deal with a hung parliment and making an important choice which actually means anything.
51
I simplified it, to make it easier to digest, call it touching up if you like, a little like Dave’s photo, the immaculate complexion, great!
Thought Clegg was very impressive, he’s growing in stature, will do very well in the great debates.
Apologies if this has been posted already, but could there be a more damning assessment of the current shambles that calls itself a ‘government’?
GORDON BROWN’S government is “weak” and “dysfunctional” …
..[with] few tools beyond the brute force of political edict…
…is reduced to issuing “barmy ideas” as it squabbles with the Treasury…
…[and] ‘all the worst bits of policy making come from the centre. It’s these people who think you change the world by publishing a strategy’
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6991086.ece
I thought Clegg started off okay and then just got really shouty student again.
He needs to calm down.
Why is it that experienced politicians-and only politicians- use the lines ‘I believe passionately’ and ‘let me be absolutely clear’? They’re so cliched that the only effect is to switch the listener off.
67. “will do very well in the great debates.”
Does most support mean votes or seats? Let’s start from first principles…
Is PR a precondition for coalition? We will never be in Government without PR…
How would you police local immigration? The same way we keep track of the Lockerbie bomber…
Yup, he’ll be fabulous in the debates!!
Clegg’s proposal is not restriction on movement but restriction on where one may be employed. Supported by appropriate entry/exit controls to/from the UK, you could licence people to work in specific areas of the country in specific areas of activity. If an individual’s licence says ‘ fruit/veg picking in Lincolnshire during 2010 ‘ that seems pretty clear.
70. Clegg is something of walking cliche, I agree, Roger.
70 - Three seconds of thinking time.
71
‘In the land of the blind, the one eyed man is king’
Is that ok Gwynfa boyyo?
74 I’m glad you asked me that question
81 - Do the Lib Dems have an immigration policy like the Australians do on regional immigration tied to job shortages?
I didn’t know that.
He’s doing a good job of taking apart the Tories marriage tax on Radio 5 at the moment.
“restriction on where one may be employed”
If, as is clear, we can’t monitor people who have no right to be employed at all, how does this work?
59 I read it and had a WTF moment - and yet he’s just slide by in the news agenda.
77 Perhaps they can all work for the Home Office - oops.
66. It seems most parties in a hung parliament would not want to be seen to put either party in!
The only reliable allies Labour might have are the SDLP, Plaid Cymru and Dai Davies if he survives. Most likely 8 seats combined.
The Tories’ only reliable allies would be any UCUNF elected from Northern Ireland. Hard to say how many, if any, but the odds must have got better as a result of the Robinson farago. 0 to 2 perhaps?
The SNP would surely be committing suicide in backing the Tories. The DUP surely would not back the Tories in the light of the UCUNF threat…
77. It’s just risible, flimsy and obviously made up on the hoof.
This has I’m afraid become characteristic of the Lib Dems of late, and is starting to make them look like a joke party - some of these ‘proposals’ look as serious as Lord Sutch’s ideas about skiing on the EEC butter mountain or sailing on the wine lake.
Denham handling himself well - he’d be a strong contender as leader post Gordon.
75. “And in the land of the legless, the one-legged man in king…”
Dennis Skinner’s riposte to George Brown for mocking Labour for being led by a one-eyed, one-legged man (Foot)….
29. Oops. John Denham going to find himself at odds with Ed Balls later today.
80 - I would have thought that the SNP would prefer to have the Tories in power. The DUP will hawk their votes to the highest bidder. Plaid Cymru were willing to work with the Tories at Welsh Assembly level - it was the Lib Dems who pulled the plug on that coalition.
83. “is king”
In the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is a dangerous subversive.
Clegg on R5 now: “you know, you know, er, hmm, mmmumble mumble”
He gets such an easy ride as well.
They introduce him as “the man both the Conservatives and Labour want to be their friend”. “150-1 shot, no-hoper” would be more accurate.
77. if you mean monitoring the inflow/ouflow of immigrants to the UK as a whole, then reintroducing border controls for non EU citizens would be considerably more effective. If you mean monitoring whether individuals in a particular role are working legally, there is - as now - the risk of bent employers recruiting illegals. The fruit/veg in Lincs example discussed with Marr addresses a very real seasonal need which even the current state of unemployment was not able to address.
“I would have thought that the SNP would prefer to have the Tories in power.”
They may well do, but being seen to facilitate it is quite another thing…
Aren’t hung parliaments fun?
64.
Interesting article. After Cruddas I’m more inclined to think some of the left-field candidates - Charles Clarke, Liam Byrne, John McDonnell, John McFall for example - might have a better chance than we are assuming. Indeed, who are the backbench longshots who might throw their hat into the ring? Is there anyone prominent or respected enough to take us by surprise? There are some nice trading opportunities if you can pick a few of the runners ..
82 I quite like Denham; he seems a decent guy. But that probably rules him out, as he never seems at ease trying to defend the indefensible. Unlike Ed Balls…who seems at ease, even though he knows it’s bollocks and you know its bollocks and he knows that you know that its bollocks, he ploughs on regardless.
72.
Nice idea in theory, but do you really believe we have instruments of the state with enough competence to make it work? Lots of immigrant work is black market anyway, these people would take a visa for fruit picking in Lincolnshire and disappear. It would be student visas mkII.
85 Indeed and Adam Price MP, key opponent to the Rainbow Coalition, is standing down at next election. While it’s unlikely SNP or Plaid would formalise anything they would probably abstain on votes like the Speech & Budget, as would the DUP.
92 He’s sitting on a pretty good majority and I hope he keeps his seat.
41. Peter. “he (Maguire) is attacking Clegg, another one who is worried about the Mansion Tax perhaps?”
You make the mistake that many on here make-that everyone thinks like a Tory.
28 Coldstone. Traitors come from all walks of life, nothing whatever to do with education.It is a mind-set - heaven forbid, you may find one in your own old school. It could well be argued that even a Scottish manse can sometimes be responsible, leaving the rest of the country to try to undo the damage.One trait they all have in common - self- righteousness, they never admit they could perhaps have been wrong.From your posts, describes you precisely.
89. I remember the BBC using the fruit n veg argument at Wimbledon one year, saying that if we didn’t have immigrants there would be no strawberries.
Which is a total nonsense. You could still have strawberries, but they’d cost £3 a punnet instead of £2, if it were, say, British students picking them instead of Latvians. That’s all.
Any business which only exists because of minimum wage labour is in a shaky position. Maybe the farmers of Lincs would do better using their fields for something else?
96. I thought the attitude among New Labour acolytes was ‘taxes are for the little people’?
From Waugh
“Brilliant Kevin Maguire question 2 Clegg as he opines on Haiti.”Have u donated yet Nick?” Clegg:”Not yet..I’m going to today”
What an idiot Clegg is. He spent several mins on Marr saying how terrible Haiti was and recalling his experiences as aid coordinator.
Mansion Macguire is roger’s type of socialist. We all know he despises the English working class and goes to great lengths to avoid them.
99
Yes, Clegg’s going to do so well in the debates.
99 - Clegg will do just fine in the debates.
I see that Edward Macmillan Scott is having another whinge on Comment is Free (this must be the about the 200th) about how nasty the Conservatives were to him.
by Sean Fear January 17th, 2010 at 9:36 am
I understand he is going to sue the Tories because he has been such an unprincipled prat and they noticed. Shame on them.
Be interesting to see whether Gordon still contemptuously calls Clegg’s party “the Librulls” in the televised debates (in the slim chance they actually happen…) or whether he has to be a bit nicer to Clegg than he is at PMQ’s as being the only route Gordon has to keep power.
75 Coldstone, try looking at
http://tinyurl.com/racistcoldstone
Note especially “a trial saw a stunned Meikle found guilty of acting in a racially aggravated manner and fined him pounds 750.”
Meikle was a Labour Party Councillor. Natch.
I went down to the post office yesterday to donate but there was a huge queue and I didn’t. I hope this does not make me a bad man. When I went on line I was rather surprised to see there was a minimum level of £5 set. I was planning to give this, but even so……
13. Yes, I expect Brown to win as well.
46. If we had still used FPTP for the EP and had recall elections available, I’d sign for Macmillan-Scott to be put back in front of his constituents, and I say that as a Tory who is mildly favourable to the concept of the EU.
On topic, yes, those figures go a long way to explaining the parties’ scores.
Andy Kershaw is crackingly good on Sky - I do miss him.
Cleggs work permit by area idea could work if everyone was honest and registered their address with the authorites.
But certain foreign students have to register with the police and we all know thats a debacle.
Camerons cap idea isn`t much better but plays to the crowd better.
Runnymede
Yes there will be electoral consequences, probably largely in the South where SF staffers are becoming increasingly unhappy with the Northern leadership as it is.
104 - “A scots councillor has been convicted of racially abusing a Welshman in a row over English sewage.”
That sounds like the beginning of a joke.
re 47. Coldstone - for Maggie - Callaghan ratings check here -
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/01/06/hows-mr-brown-doing-against-mr-major/
108
So Clegg’s idea would work if there wasn’t a problem in the first place. Great.
Watt and Pound on Sky now
Talking of the white working class (an obsession of fr’s) why is it that when getting a comment from a Labour backbencher the BBC always choose Geraldine Smith?
It wouldn’t be possible for Deep Blue to create a less voter friendly persona or voice than hers. They used to do the same to the Tories with the completely insane Peter Bruinvels
93. I’m not sure we will ever have a completely secure system. The additional entry/exit controls - which did work well until they were withdrawn over 10-15 years ago - would have an overall beneficial effect of at least the UK Govt knowing who had overstayed their welcome whereas we currently don’t.
Good news for Lord Ashcroft today a cool £100m from the flotation of The Priory Group with the help of the taxpayer’s bank RBS:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/article-1243711/RBS-lines-1-3bn-float-The-Priory.html
I wonder what he intends to do with all that extra cash and how big a slice HMRC will actually see of it?
99 - couldn’t agree more. Making policy on the hoof in the Marr interview was shocking, trying to enforce where people work in the country - how the hell do you police that? Only would encourage more illegal migrants - total nonsense.
Annoyed about England’s spineless performance in Joburg, Collingwood excepted. Pietersen and Prior’s shots were particularly brainless.
Read through some Elliott wave technical analysis which suggests that the top of the classic wave 2 retrace rally from March 2009 is finally in, time to start loading up on the shorts. I’m convinced that we’re going to go lower than the March 2009 FTSE100 low of c3,500 - it’s going to be quite a ride, so many shoes waiting to drop. Big question politically is whether matters unfold quickly enough by May to slice away some more of Labour’s coalition, personally I don’t think things will move that much, I think the ordinary man on the street can see what this fake recovery is all about, and is already baked into the cake of voting figures.
My view remains that the tactical unwind from 2005 is still being underestimated, along with greater swing in the marginals given that most of the swing voters live there. Hence I’m expecting a Tory majority on the top end of expectations, about 60-70 at this point if I had to guess.
Ooops rog, I didn’t mention white. But we all know what you think of the working class who dare to critize the government when their children bleed to death in the desert because Brown won’t pay for helicopters in order to snub Blair.
“In my experience grieving people are usually at their most humble grateful for all the sympathy offered. This woman by secretly recording a conversation with the Prime Minister in order to give it to the Sun has behaved atrociously. Grief doesn’t forgive this anymore than it excuses any other grotesque behaviour. Nice people are nice people and shits are shits.”
by Roger November 10th, 2009 at 10:10 am
112 Exactly its a bit naive but so is the current registering of foreign students everyone knows its a joke.
Register with a english language course get the visa then you are supposed to register your address.
Can put a large cart through that one.
118 She is straight from central casting - truly awful.
104. That story just about sums up the level the UK has reached. With all the problems we have in this country , the police and courts waste all that time and money because somebody called a Welshman “Boyo”, you couldn’t make it up. When will we see someone jailed for calling a Scotsman “Jimmy”.
http://election.ie/2010/01/the-sunday-leads-january-16th-2010/
Runnymede, sadly the Tribune hasnt got its current page online but here you go.
125 malcolmG couldn’t agree more - its pathetic.
109 fr you can donate here http://www.dec.org.uk/item/200
min 5 pounds. Or there is a link on Amazon home page - but it sends you on to Amazon.com and bills in dollars.
Cleggs immigration idea is modelled on Australia.
Makes perfect sense if he follows their model.
I should point out that the alleged elected politcian is apparently a councillor.
I am aware of the figure in question who the allegation is made against but obviously couldnt publish. SF officials knew of the allegations, guaranteed.
browns bunch of criminals having another go at Ashcroft:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2010/jan/17/labour-tory-ashcroft-cash
They’re also screwing up sport in the UK with their stupid tax ideas:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/money/tax/article6991066.ece
I wonder if the Mirror really does support Brown, and if it does why do they think the guppy look is right for him?
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/top-stories/2010/01/17/gordon-brown-s-call-to-arms-echoes-tony-blair-s-1997-election-crusade-115875-21973566/
121 I don’t believe that the proposal is to enforce any one to work on a chain gang in a particular area of the country. The idea seems that it is a permit to work - something that is quite discrete. There is a scope for something of this type to be introduced as clearly there are substantial pockets of seasonal work that need undertaking and from what I understand farmers are struggling to get their crops in.
Pure comedy from the Mirror:
Gordon Brown yesterday vowed to save people from Tory cuts - as he ordered Labour to fight for the “mainstream majority”.
In a clear echo of his party’s election-winning strategy 13 years ago, the Prime Minister said: “In 1997, my predecessor and friend Tony Blair said we campaigned as New Labour and would govern as New Labour.
“Let me say to you today, we have governed as New Labour and now will campaign as New Labour.”
131 I do like his claim “my predecessor and friend Tony Blair” in view of the articles in the Mail.
Morning all,
Well I think the figures above are clear. Cameron is doing better than Kinnock as pretender to 10DS and Brown as incumbent is doing abysmally in comparison to Major (1992 style). Given we already know that Brown has been doing marginally worse than Major 1997 style and Gentleman Jim then the only other question is to compare Cameron with Maggie and Blair (unless I missed it?).
On another point where Mike says:
and the Tories moving down (YouGov)
If you ignore the Sun’s salami slicing of their Yougov mega-poll (as the third slice has not been published seperately we cannot confirm the integrity of the slicing) this is not the case.
In fact is that the Conservatives have been on 40% in Internet polling (8 polls - the longest consecutive run) for the last 44 days (the longest timespan I could find) with no change. Now I’ve no idea what the probability of that happening is but I imagine it is quite improbable and at some point it must start raising questions around the sampling.
125 I think “Jock” would be racist.
A lot depends on the context, but if you are being abusive and derogatory to the Scots and use the term “Jocks” then I would say that you are guilty of racism.
It is always the case that people using racist epithets regard them as innocent.
Belated comment on YouGov as I was out last night. I’ve always thought it’s helpful to see a YouGov with a poll that weights for turnout like Populu. There is some evidence that YouGov manages to be fairly accurate despite this apparent flaw (possibly the internet-only aspect depresses the Labour vote while the absence of a turnout filter maginfies it?), but in general YouGov is probably a fair reflection of the position for hotly-contested marginals where turnout will presumably be higher (but not necessarily for seats where the incumbent looks safe but isn’t).
Do we have any data on relative turnout in safe/less safe seats, and how it changes in the following election if a seat switches from being safe to unsafe or vice versa? If one of you has time, perhaps you could look at say 3 Tory seats in 97 that looked safe (include Broxtowe if you like!) and 3 that looked marginal, plus 3 safe Labour seats. How did turnout compare? And what happened in 2001, when they presumably looked marginal Tory, marginal Labour and ultra-safe Labour?
130. Is that ‘Slush Fund’ Brown by any chance?
136 How do you see the overall battlefield in Wales now after the YouGov poll? Any betting gems stand out.
130. I’ve never heard of visiting Spanish sportsmen or anyone overseas having to pay UK tax on their earnings or winnings. The Germans insist on charging foreign nationals tax earned in Germany though I’ve not heard it done in the UK.
It transpires that the favourite poem of our Prime Minister is Invictus, the self-righteous cry of WE Henley.
We must surmise that Mr Brown doesn’t identify with the lines, “Beyond this place of wrath and tears, looms but the horror of the shade”, even if in his case that might have a political ring of truth to it, but likes the bits about his head being “bloody, but unbowed”, and the menace of the years finding him unafraid, and so on. You know the kind of thing. Basically, he’s made a bit of an arse of it all, but he’s still the captain of his soul.
Now let’s guess what Alastair Campbell’s favourite poem might be. No, no. Don’t tell me. I know this one! Is it “Liar, liar, pants on fire”? Have you ever seen a worse deceiver than Mr Campbell giving “evidence” at the Chilcot Inquiry? With what superhuman force of will are the questioners stopping themselves from spluttering with astonished mirth every time the man speaks? No answers may come from the inquiry, given that it has already proved itself open to accusations of government bias by not calling Mr Brown before the election, but its theatre has at least reminded us of something terribly important. Labour has been telling us lies. Great, big, fat, juicy ones.
http://www.heraldscotland.com/comment/muriel-gray/a-class-act-labour-s-new-weapon-of-mass-deception-1.999187
132 - It works perfectly well in Australia
1. Great, big, fat, juicy ones.
That reminds me of a poem that Gordon may well identify with:
Nobody likes me
Everybody hates me
Just because I eat worms
Short fat hairy ones
Long tall skinny ones
See how the little ones squirm
Bite all their heads off
Suck all the juice out
Throw the empty skins away
Nobody Likes me
Everybody hates me
Cos I eat worms all day
No if you then consider worms as a pseudonym for a certain bodily product that Gordo has been caught hunting for whilst on the front bench then it suits him perfectly………
“Gordon Brown yesterday vowed to save people from Tory cuts -”
Oh dear. The non-dividing line approach lasted, what, a week? Mandy will be p*ssed.
RE 142 was for 141
OT, Plato
A WARNING that climate change will melt most of the Himalayan glaciers by 2035 is likely to be retracted after a series of scientific blunders by the United Nations body that issued it.
Two years ago the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) issued a benchmark report that was claimed to incorporate the latest and most detailed research into the impact of global warming. A central claim was the world’s glaciers were melting so fast that those in the Himalayas could vanish by 2035.
In the past few days the scientists behind the warning have admitted that it was based on a news story in the New Scientist, a popular science journal, published eight years before the IPCC’s 2007 report.
It has also emerged that the New Scientist report was itself based on a short telephone interview with Syed Hasnain, a little-known Indian scientist then based at Jawaharlal Nehru University in Delhi.
Hasnain has since admitted that the claim was “speculation” and was not supported by any formal research.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/environment/article6991177.ece
“LABOUR MPS SHUN BROWN’S PRIZE JOBS
Six months after Gordon Brown was forced to reshuffle his Cabinet, there are 12 vacancies for parliamentary private secretaries.”
http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/152208/Labour-MPs-shun-Brown-s-prize-jobs
When was the last time that a leader that was leading, lost the election?
Interesting to see on the Marr Show a rerun of Gordon calling off the election in 2007, cos he wants to show the country his “vision”… and were still waiting
No doubt well be hearing of his new “vision” as the election approaches
The conservatives should rerun this clip during the election campaign
137 It may be, what about sassenach on the other foot, or that little Welsh phrase about Englishmen and arseholes? Personally I think the law should stay clear of one-off situations where people just insult each other, without there being a fear of physical force or repeated behaviour.
From Peter Hitchens’ latest book ‘The Broken Compass - How British Politics Lost Its Way’ page 4 -
opinion polls are a device for influencing public opinion,not a means of measuring it.
I would only add to Hitchens’ words, that opinion polls can equally be used to prepare a public for a rigged election result, to make it look as if what was expected, such a Hung Parliament.
I asked Peter Hitchens about the possibility that elections can be rigged. His reply was that he does not possess or has not seen evidence for such a claim.
This is the first time I have seen it in print from an authoritative journalist that public opinion polls are ‘manipulated’. It’s a start.
149. Wilson 1970
re 55 ah but SF was responsible for the deaths of the hated Prots so probably became more popular the more they killed. If they’ve been fiddling with the nationalist kiddies then there probably will be electoral consequences.
Apologies if this has aleady been posted but is immigration Labour’s achilles heel this time around?
A YouGov poll in 43 Labour marginals shows that nearly half the respondents were more likely to vote Tory if Cameron backed a 50,000 cap.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6991051.ece
Granted it was commissioned by Migrationwatch but even so could it cause Labour a problem?
149 Ted Heath in feb 74 who governs the country election.
152 But Peter Hitchens is mad, and you believe in lizard men. The opinion polls are not showing that a hung parliament is likely, only RodCrosby believes that.
155 Jsfl It could but Cameron won`t use it as it will cause him huge problems in government when it cant be done.
147. Excellent.
This is a full blown retraction by the IPCC. As the AGW wombats adhere so strongly to the line that none of us can understand all this difficult science and we must therefore implicitly trust the IPCC as the Revealed Truth, I expect not to hear from them on this.
re 152 Tapestry of course opinion polls are manipulated by the organisation which have paid for them to be carried out - they do after all have their editorial line and story to get across. You probably think that the actual polling organisations fiddle the figures. That way lies paranoia and madness.
147
Well that’s a surprise! My faith has been restored 
156. According to Lebo & Norpoth, Heath was “behind” [his adjusted approval rating was <50%] yet he “won” the Feb 1974 election [he did get the most votes]…
157 Peter Hitchens is a very strange man - he seems incredibly clever, and is an awesome persona and argues his case forcefully - but I think he’s barking.
I can’t put my finger on it. I wouldn’t ever want to be trapped in a lift with him sums it
158. What can’t be done?
163. I think he suffers terribly from having a brother who is both more successful and more charming than he is.
On to more pleasant matters in NI.
How do you solve a problem like Sylvia Hermon?
Make her Minister for Justice.
Talk is that her name is in the frame as the possible comproimise figure on devolution of Policing & justice. The DUP has been talking a lot to the UUP to try to ensuring widest possible support for a deal amongst the Unionist parties. The aim is to make it a strong sell to a unionist community that is at least disinterested and at worst hostile. The Tories are in on this as well encouraging the UUP to work this pan unionist position.
Whilst the mechanism agreed previously suugested that an Alliance MLA would be shoved in there no one really thinks much of David Ford and his bunch. They’ll do it but the Hermon option has been flagged. Surprisingly some in SF arent hostile but it may prove too much for a wider republican audience.
162. Brown could take some encouragement from that result, I suppose…
Personality-wise, of post war PMs he probably resembles Heath the most, although not exactly.
Incidentally. Mori Leader satisfaction figures 1977-1987 (links to 1988-1997 & 1997 to date)
http://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/poll.aspx?oItemId=2437&view=wide
Cleggs immigration policy works perfectly well in Australia.
Does anyone know why Nigel Farage can’t wear a balaclava on the Tube?
Farage: “we do not want to live in a multi-cultural society…”
Farage is crashing and burning in quite spectacular style.
171 I thought Farage was UKIP.
149 Callaghan, I think.
154 During the Troubles, the IRA murdered, tortured, and extorted from hundreds of Catholics, without that affecting Sinn Fein’s support. However, that could be excused by Sinn Fein as being a regrettable, if necessary, part of the armed struggle.
Child rape can never be excused in those terms, so I think this does have the potential to damage them, if only by causing more Republicans to abstain.
32% approval for Gordon Clown! He must be appalled that it is so high. And after all his efforts to insult as many voters as possible by calling those who disagree with his religion ‘flat earthers’.
But never mind I’m sure he’ll be able to insult a lot more people before election day and get close to his target of zero approval by then. He just has to be himself.
Gordon’s pea brain isn’t clever enough to realise that insulting millions of voters is not the way to get elected. But when you spend every waking hour saving the world over and over again then I suppose
such things as elections must seem trivial and something just for the little people to worry about.
Betting Post
Two new Politics (well, Sarah Palin) markets up on Paddy Power
“First Minority Group Sarah Palin offends”
(which oddly defines Christians as a minority)
And when she’ll leave Fox News.
The Autumn option looking the most likely.
147 - excellent! Another AGW gem here - from Sammy Wilson, MP for East Antrim. Very well informed man, hope he holds on in May.
http://www.kane-tv.com/wa/sammywilson.html
165# andrew g, They just repeated yetserday a programme including christopher hitchens called q and a, the oz equivalent of question time, discussing religion, muslims, jews and a whole range of other issues dimbledore would avoid likle the plague.
Very good discussion, fair audience, a fair percentage muslim I might add, many who agreed with what he said after he explained why he held certain views and why he was not an apologist for iran or israel. Worth watching if you get access to it.
The way discussions should be, robust, fair and without fear.
174, Sean
Mori suggests that Jim Callaghan was around -6 to -9 in the months immediately prior to the 79 election whereas Thatcher was -2 or -3 until April 79 when she jumped to +9
*** Rambling Betting Post ***
First of all an apology to PfP for deserting you on the old thread. My sleeping patterns are ‘quite unique’ !
There are three types of thinkers about the Tory performance in the coming GE.
1. “The Normals”: They thing that the Tories will obtain between 326 and 374 Seats. My observation would be that these sensible people don’t do much betting. The Spreads can’t attract them and the prices for their chosen Band are not exciting. Nonetheless,Mr Normal probably constitutes more than half of erm….the constituency.
2. “The Nomajistes”: Since the get-go, NOM has had cult-like status. If not a High Priest, I was myself a humble worshipper.
That was then, this is now and I suspect that the Nomajistes are on the Wayne. Maybe fewer than 25% think the unthinkable- that the Tories will obtain fewer than 326 Seats. These people do bet and they are getting tasty prices for their crackpot theories.
3.”The No-Limits.”: This is I sense an ever growing group and they like a bet. Their High Priest hails from Putney and the faithful believe that 375 is not a bridge too far.
My own researches indicate that the optimists have the zeitgeist and are getting ready to rock.
Ed Balls on Politics Show.
jsfl January 17th, 2010 at 11:42 am
Are Labour not already suffering because of immigration, as the Labour to BNP vote at the Euros seemed to show.
Some of these Labour inclined may stick with the BNP in the GE, some may go Tory as the marginals polling suggests but a lot may simply stay at home. I believe the Tory immigration line is aimed at making the core Labour vote reluctant to turn out as much as to win over those less committed to vote positively.
The YouGov figures nationally are beginning to look like the odd one out. Is this turnout related? Is there not a dislocation between the recent Welsh and Scottish polling and the national figure from YouGov?
If the other poll yesterday had not been COMedy RESults I would have been outright skeptical of YouGov.
157. Slow down John!
It’s quite clear that far from being a volte face, Browns new found love of the middle class is simply the next phase in his Class War strategy. Shore up working class. Tick, job done. Now grab the middle classes, leaving the Tories representing only the Toffs
Brown - shades of Heart of Darkness to me…
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6991086.ece
184 - Someone put it yesterday as leaving the Tories as the party of Vicky Pollard and Zac Goldsmith.
Having a look back through the MORI archive of satisfaction ratings, it is very interesting to note that the numbers in each election year surveyed (since 1979) predicted the result well. It also seems that leader ratings are far more important than those of the government.
1979:
Governmant:Jan 17, Early March 22, Late March 30, April 28
Callaghan: Jan 31, Early March 41, Late March 43, April 44
Thatcher: Jan 45, Early March 43, Late March 44, April 47
The result was a fairly narrow Conservative win, despite the government’s huge unpopularity. Mr Callaghan’s ratings are very good, pretty close to Thatcher’s.
However, in 1983, Thatcher’s ratings are all around the 50% mark whilst Foot only scraped 20% a few times. The government figures were low/mid 40s. The result was a landslide for the Conservatives.
The satisfaction ratings clearly are a good indicator of a result in a general election year. An article on these matters would be very interesting.
Sopel giving Balls a lot of stick - a Blue Moon Day.
HAHAAHAA Balls claims that decreasing social mobility is a global problem and Labour is leading the world in stopping the decline.
Hilarious.
Yokel,
I like your comments, they are incisive.
Gerry Adam’s version of events is at variance to others and even himself only recently.
With SF and the DUP in a mess, is there room for a party of concensus or is still too wishful thinking to think that might happen one day and people might vote in Northern Ireland based on the integrity of the candidate and what they offered NI as a whole.
Yep, it is wishful thinking; maybe by 2050 when the borders have been tweaked yet again to keep a protestant majority and the south finally decides the north (and vice versa) is worth having as a joint economic and political unit.
Yes I know I normally rant on about Scotland, but I have more than a little interest in this as I spent some time there in the early to mid 1980’s, and now have a daughter, grandkids and family there.
Witan.
Fair comment on immigration and indeed as you point out it has already had an effect on Labour. It’s also interesting that UKIP seem to have hardened their position. Is there an opportunity there for the Conservatives to further marginalise UKIP?
I agree also with you about Yougov. I’m starting to question their results more, simply because there is so little movement relatively. Is the Internet sample pool becoming sufficiently stagnant as not to register what perhaps are temporary shifts in opinion?
Ed Balls did alright just now, but he still looks as scary as ever. I’m scared he is going to eat me.
192
Ditto!!
Thought Clegg gave a very good performance on Marr today ( but then I would wouldn’t I ) . Interestingly my non political ladyfriend thought so too - grudgingly until I corrected her mistaken impression that he was David Cameron .
Gordon’s at it again
Deja vu all over again.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jameskirkup/100022496/internships-if-its-worth-announcing-once-its-worth-announcing-three-times/
177. Never has so much “science” collapsed so quickly to such general hilarity.
The virtual demolition of the AGW thesis in a few short weeks, an edifice carefully built over decades by teams of dedicated careerists and fruitloops, sorry, researchers, is quite astonishing.
How many times have we heard that Himalayan glacier canard? Countless times. It’s been one of their main thrusting points. The glaciers will be gone by 2035, then everyone in Bangladesh will die cause there’s no more water, blah blah blah
And all of it based on one overheard remark by some geezer in a pub in the Punjab twenty years back, who told someone on a magazine, who shoved it in a piece for the heck of it.
And this is the rockhard and unquestionable science whereby we are meant to change the way we live. We might as well get our scientific advice from Debbie Frank, official astrologer to Princess Diana and inventor of the Astro Plan Diet, I mean, at least Capricorn definitely exists.
194. Clegg didn’t have a particularly good time this morning. He got into a muddle about the idea of region-specific work permits for immigrants. Then, at the end of the interview he got bogged down as he tried to dance away from the question of whether pr was a precondition of any post-election deal with one of the major parties.
There was also a comic moment at the end of the show. Clegg, Kevin Maguire, Carol Vorderman were talking about Haiti with Andrew Marr. Clegg was saying how great it was to see how much the British people had given already, when Maguire asked him if he had donated. After a second’s pause, Clegg replied that he was going to donate later today.
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/5711503/clegg-hasone-great-policy-but-he-doesnt-know-how-to-sell-it.thtml
193 - don’t you want Ed Balls to eat you?
Ed Balls always seems to be in a rush - he has to answer the question AND get in a dividing line all in the space of 10 seconds.
194. Sounds to me like she doesn’t care two figs about politics and was only agreeing with you to shut you up.
189 189.HAHAAHAA Balls claims that decreasing social mobility is a global problem and Labour is leading the world in stopping the decline.
WTF!?!?!?! Wish I’d seen it. This is one of those moments when I am literally left open-mouthed by a statement from a politician (though it happens more often with Labour).
Labour has helped to DECREASE social mobility since 1997!
180. Great post - even for me.
196 The glacier story also has that strange typo argument problem too - substituting 2350 with 2035 and supposedly not one of the IPCC reviewers noticed it.
Still, it was cited by WWF so it must be true… past Dir of WWF = Dir of Met Office.
29 - is that true? If it is Labour should be bloody ashamed of themselves.
191 the internet polls don’t use propensity to vote. Haven’t delved into the poll details but subjectively my view is there has been little volatility since September and the moves we have seen have either been sample variation, odd sampling (too many Labour/public service or too many older voters) or changes in reported propensity to vote (a very subjective measure anyway as it is asking people to guess intent). YouGov and ARPO with larger samples drawn from even larger panels seem to bear this out (population weighting accounting for differences).
27 - Spot On.
The One show PPB to me was the defining moment the BBC declared open war on the Tories.
If he gets in Cameron really has to think long and deeply as to why the public are subsidising a media organisation dedicated to blatantly biast porpaganda in favour of New Labour.
201. Perhaps Ed Balls meant to say, re social mobility, that they were leading the way in “hiding the decline”, not “stopping the decline”.
Because Britain is certainly leading the way in hiding declines.
203.
A cracker of a sentence from that Times article:
“Rajendra Pachauri, the IPCC chairman, has previously dismissed criticism of the Himalayas claim as “voodoo science”"
Who’s got the bone through his nose now, eh, you ludicrous, gibbering, chicken-blood-spraying Witch Doctor of Climate Wank?
199 That’s a very good summary of his media style - Sopel impressed me today - he usually reserves that intv mode for Tories.
Edwina on Sky is looking remarkably well and still a strong media operator. I wonder if there’s a plan to get some of the older style Tories on the campaign trail to appeal to those who aren’t so keen on Cameron?
“I wonder if there’s a plan to get some of the older style Tories on the campaign trail to appeal to those who aren’t so keen on Cameron?”
Please wheel them out… Pretty please.
Since its inception, the aim of the British Labour Party has been to INCREASE social mobility.
This aim was never more finely realised than in the years 1945-1951 and the effect was so strong that it could not be abandoned by the Conservatives.
‘One Nation Tories’ were the heirs of Attlee as of course was Harold Wilson.
Mrs Thatcher span the wheel. Her policies in a sense encouraged social mobility but produced huge winners and small losers; this is what you might expect in a casino.
The years since 1997 have seen great changes for the better in the frontline services and a change to the culture of ‘private splendour, public squalor’.
207 As ever, I think it will be his financial arrangements that will bring him down.
Richard North has done some incredibly deep digging - I read that TERI has now accepted that there are ‘accidental anomolies’ with it’s accounts and have submitted them to an independent accountant.
Start pulling the hanging thread…
197 - The region specific visas is sensible if you’re going to go for a labour shortage assesment as I believe is Tory policy as well.
Even within Australian Staes the same thing happens.
I see URW has been well at the pre-luncheon sherry.
208 Plato
I think Sopel is pretty fair, but doesn’t always hit his mark.
He’s the closest thing to Paxman apart from the real McCoy. Has a similar sneering disbelief which can be quite entertaining/annoying depending on context.
OT I still can’t get over the stat that the average Scot glugs more than 40 bottles of vodka a year.
The AVERAGE?!
210 Public splendour and private squalor?
213 Andrew Neil is my favourite - he’s so funny when he’s on an incredulity roll.
I’d really like to see him chair QT.
OT I was really surprised to learn from the DEC chap on Marr that being surrounded by corpses wasn’t actually a significant health risk if the population weren’t ill in the first place.
You live and learn.
216 Plato
Yes, but Andrew Neil is too obviously right-wing for the BBC to put in a flagship role.
A pity, as he is certainly the most consistently forensic interviewer they have. He is dogged but doesn’t continuously interrupt.
190. Not for a while yet. To me one of the worst episodes in local politics post GFA was the UK parties failing to organise and stand. The Tories have been around for a while but really have only been truly getting a proper will now. The stance of Labour where they had be dragged through legal process to even consider the possibility of organising in NI is a joke. Despite what many may think the Tory/UU link up isnt as politically sectarian as people may think espcially ince the Tories get a grip of the UU and move it the way they want. Labour (be they the UL or Irish version) have the avenue of what is really a complete vacuum locally for a non-sectarian left party.
Until such outfits get stuck in, we will always have orange green politics as the dominant force. People will need time but then so do most things and they can get traction in time.
For a long time NI had a Labour Party of its own. You also had cross community voting in some arenas (witness perhaps Gerry Fitt who had some unionist working class support).
Things can be done.
214 I will never forget my only visit to Scotland so far,when I was 18.
I went with friends into a Glasgow city centre bar- I was literally open-mouthed in amazement at the speed petite young women were smashing double whiskies down their throats,whilst talking intensely- this does prove to me the stereotype of the Scots being very hard drinkers!
215 - Less than France and Luxembourg then.
In a league table with Luxembourg and the Czechs at the top and Somalia and Saudi at the bottom.
215 - I could launch a diatribe about the state of public services under Thatcher. They were simply a disgrace to a first-world nation.
Under Labour, after the years of darkness, everything *visibly* improved. I witnessed it with my own eyes.
So ‘Private Splendour, Public Splendour’ I will allow.
206 ConHome have something on this today. They are encouraging voters and activists to register their displeasure when they see somehting.
The BBC response to that piece was certainly tantamount to admitting all wasn’t well without apologising. How do they expect anyone to have any faith in them when they air stuff like that and make such a response.
221 I’m sure you could. That wasn’t my experience, but yours was doubtless different.
But now that we’ve had the lowest rate of growth per decade since the 1940s, it’s a bit ridiculous to talk of private splendour.
221. And entirely unsustainable. I am sure my life would be more comfortable if a bought a new car every year, lived in a six bedroom house and only ever bought my food at Marks and Spencers, but the thing is, the amount of money I earn is not enough to pay for such luxuries. What i can do, for a short period of time, is pretend that i earn enough, by charging these things to my credit card, in the hope that at some time in the future i might get a pay rise.
That is what Labour have done.
I’m looking forward to the next few polls. I’m finding it really hard to see where they’re heading towards and who will possibly come off best from the election campaign. I think the magic poll number for Labour will be hitting 32. Its just under a year that they were last on 32. If they reach 32 by the election it will be hard for the Tories to be able to maintain a 10 point lead (which they would need for a majority). The Lib Dems will need to get into the 20s to stop a Tory government (majority). I’m finding the scenario of a hung parliament far more likely than ever. I swear my opinion is changing on this every day though!
jsfl January 17th, 2010 at 12:33 pm
I do wonder, too, if the YouGov pool is getting a little stale and the selection method a little vaguer than it should be. They say they make checks on consistency of personal details at random, but how ‘old’ is the panel, how much have they changed? Is ARPO with a newer panel more reliable?
This is not an attack on YouGov but rather questions that may be worthy of an answer and why I am getting a little wary of their results.
The YouGov website says:
As well as weighting our raw data to ensure that our figures conform to the profile of the nation by age, gender, social class and region, we also weight our data by newspaper readership, and often by past vote. For example, we ensure that our published figures contain 22% who are Sun or Star readers and 4% % who are Guardian or Independent readers..
So besides newspaper readership, how do they weight by ‘social class’? And is the use of ‘class’ rather than ‘group’ in any way significant?
Interestingly YouGov believe they are more generous to the Tories than other pollsters and seem to put this down to the concept of the ’spiral of silence’ adjustments the others use.
…. why do other polls consistently produce results LESS favourable to the Conservatives?
We believe that one major reason concerns a theory known among pollsters and political scientists as “spiral of silence”. This suggests that, for more than a decade, some people have been reluctant to admit to a stranger that they might vote Conservative……..
If this theory is right, then it is likely that YouGov polls are more accurate because we have no “interviewer effect”, as people responding to our surveys are filling in their questionnaires on a computer screen, rather than talking to another human being.
But is that concept now out of date and other pollsters have adapted their methodology? Are YouGov’s assumptions out of date?
Is the use of newspaper readership out of date too in the internet age? What would I respond as I read a range of papers online but none that YouGov would recognise in hard copy?
YouGov ‘often’ weight for past vote but not, therefore, always. When, why, what does this do to a trend of results?
And there is no turnout filter. On the assumption that if you bother to fill in the questionnaire then you are likely to vote? But a significant proportion of the core vote of the two main parties is unlikely to be internet users, going by national statistics. That would suggest something is missing.
How do ARPO deal with this. Lunch calls and one pollster site before lunch is enough.
re 190 With SF and the DUP in a mess, is there room for a party of con[s]ensus
What you mean like Lab, C or LD? Perhaps now is a great opportunity to return NI to normal politics and treat the last 40 years as an aberration.
Probably though all 3 parties will miss the opportunity and continue to let NI wallow in its tribal cess pit.
219 I thought you disliked the Tories wading into NI with the UU tie up and were of the opinion they would get nowhere returning MPs at the election.
230 for 220 even.
214 And you have to strip out all the teetotal Wee Frees, and I imagine a fair number of muslims, to establish how much the drinkers are drinking.
I’m never impressed by the argument that setting minimum alcohol prices “penalises responsible drinkers”, partly because “sensible limits” are so low that responsible drinkers are drinking too little for a price hike to be noticeable, and partly because the drinks companies would either have to at least double prices, or go immediately bust, if no one drank more than they should. So “responsible drinkers” are in effect getting a massive invisible subsidy from the alcoholics.
227 If Labour are on 32%, it would depend where the Conservatives finished. A result of Labour 32% to Conservative 42%, for example, would likely produce a working majority for the Conservatives.
A clear and fair observation form the analysis is that Brown’s approval ratings are terrible.
Meanwhile, a Whitehall audit has found that Treasury mandarins lack the experience and skills to oversee Britain’s economy and financial system, a Whitehall audit has found.
Most of the officials, bankers and academics who deal with the department do not think its senior staff are up to the job.
The criticism emerged in a Cabinet Office Capability Review report on the Treasury and its officials. The report was published without fanfare in December.
It discloses that a Whitehall survey, conducted earlier this year, found that 71 per cent of “stakeholders” in regular contact with the Treasury feel that staff have insufficient experience.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/7011206/Mandarins-attack-barmy-Downing-Street.html
228 Without the “spiral of silence” adjustment, the last ICM would have given the Conservatives a lead of 12%, and the last Populus would have given them a lead of 15%.
Stick with your day job, Sean Fear @ 233. If Labour get 32% the Conservatives would struggle to get 40%.
Who will rid me of these innumerates ?
230. Nope, not me
237 Try learning a bit about politics, perhaps.
Don’t ever dare patronise me, you half-wide mug (239) ! I know nothing about political chit-chat.
I know more about Betting than the likes of you would ever know in five lifetimes.
You are not on my list of trusted bettors but I would love to frame a bet that CON+LAB don’t poll 72% or more of the popular vote.
URW
“Under Labour, after the years of darkness, everything *visibly* improved. I witnessed it with my own eyes.”
Well cleanliness hasn’t at my local hospital.
Neither has the food or the car parking.
Still many things have improved.
As they should have done anyway, it being the natural tendancy of things to improve if they’re run efficiently.
The question is have public services improved proportionally to the extra (borrowed) money spent on them.
The answer to that is overwhelmingly no.
The ultimate problem with public services in this country is that they have long been subject to ‘producer capture’. They are run primarily for the benefit of those employed in them especially for those in charge.
237 - there were 5 polls in the first 3 months of 2009 alone that showed Labour on 32 and the Tories with 40+ figures. It’s only when you go back to 2006-7 that polls with Labour in the low 30s and the Tories in the high 30s are commonplace.
240 You are by some measure the most conceited, and certainly one of the least pleasant, contributors to this site.
The Raven - Well here I am. I want to bet that CON+LAB receive 71.99% of the popular vote or less.
243 ‘No name’. Agreed and especially about the conceited bit.
Strange that if you divide The Twin Towers by two, I was voted the second best ‘tipster’ on the site. Very strange if you ask me !
Even stranger I ended up about 15th in POTY…so I must be doing something right.
You (SF) do your day job quite well, but just sound like a typical mug otherwise.
OT Just looking again at those leader ratings - Gordon’s are way behind - and to think Labour thought Tony was an electoral liability
I wonder if Gordon’s own bullishness about toppling Tony was fed by the ‘private polling’ he did whilst still Chancellor?
Watt’s revelation on first glance seems rather mundane - secretive micro-managing but nothing more than that.
If Gordon was actually using it to compare Tony vs Gordon popularity scores and feeding his own Brownies to embolden them - perhaps this explains their boldness?
235 The Times report on the Institute of Government report has a paragraph which shows where the blame lies:
The Treasury has given up on its duty to control public spending because it has been “hijacked and turned into a social policy department, a welfare department, a reducing international debt department, an everything-under-the-sun department”.
The Brown/Blair Wars with Gordon using his Chancellorship to drive his own rather than a Cabinet agenda hollowed out the Treasury, especially post 2004 with Gordon utilising it as a campaign vehicle for his leadership ambitions. The in Government he took out his placemen to run his PM office and left a disorganised and unfit Treasury.
Labour MP Austin Mitchell said Mr Brown had become the puppet of Lord Mandelson, who led the Cabinet revolt against the Prime Minister’s earlier strategy of attacking the privileged.
‘Having failed to push him out, the Blairites seem to have taken Gordon Brown prisoner,’ said Mr Mitchell. ‘It would appear that Peter Mandelson has taken up ventriloquism.
‘Most of us were happy with the core-vote strategy. We should be fighting for the wellbeing of British workers, the poor and the deprived.’
Fellow Left-wing MP Alan Simpson added: ‘This has Mandelson’s fingerprints all over it. We are back to being a party of packaging instead of substance.’
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1243917/Labour-win-needs-miracle-says-David-Blunkett.html
Don’t bring back Blair!
Offering Blair an ‘election role’ would be madness
http://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/the-staggers/2010/01/election-role-labour-blair
247 Couldn’t agree more - that observation stuck out like a sore thumb when I read the article.
A government within the government. I’ve worked in big organisations that did exactly the same thing - fiefdoms are dangerous and almost always end in tears within a very short period of time.
176 - Ladbrokes have Palin at 8/1 to be nominee, at the moment it almost looks like free money. Seriously, if people are taking the temperature of the US right it appears that the only way she can lose the nomination is if there is a new third party on the right siphoning her, or her votes, off.
Don’t forget that this is an election by registered voters (and voters who are highly motivated at that) and populism counts for a lot. You have a movement that hates politicians and government and, given a choice between a Romney and an outsider to the system, the outsider will win.
240 -
Calm down mate. You two got previous or something?
For those who saw Clegg this morning, how is this for spectacularly bad reporting
U.K. Will Avoid Hung Parliament, Liberal Democrat Leader Says
when what he actually said was
“There is a theoretical possibility that you may get a complete photo finish between some parties, but on the whole elections generally make it very clear which party enjoys more support,” Clegg told the British Broadcasting Corp.’s Andrew Marr Show today.
in answer to the question which party he would support in a hung parliament.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601102&sid=asaCGorhX72k
The best revelations from Peter Watt, for me, are in this article
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1243827/Tony-Blair-Find-obviously-sick-children.html
248 “‘Most of us were happy with the core-vote strategy. We should be fighting for the wellbeing of British workers, the poor and the deprived.’” said Austin Mitchell.
Not sure his expenses record quite matches his words:
http://www.theyworkforyou.com/mp/austin_mitchell/great_grimsby#expenses
189 - “HAHAAHAA Balls claims that decreasing social mobility is a global problem and Labour is leading the world in stopping the decline.”
Assume it started in America?
This was the case even in that polling disaster of the 1992 general election when John Major romped in with a national vote margin that was seven clear points larger than what any of the pollsters voting intention surveys had been suggesting.
A disaster due to be repeated and a Tory slice nearer 50% with Labour low twenties with The Libs breathing down their necks.
195 - with Gordon its “change you can’t believe in”
Austin Mitchell:
‘Most of us were happy with the core vote strategy. We should be fighting for the wellbeing of British workers, the poor and the deprived.’
Meanwhile in the Telegraph Lord Ahmed reports the reality:
‘He accused the Government of neglecting education and training in white working class areas of Britain. “I think it is very clear that the white working class communities, particularly in the north, have not economically benefited over the years because the gap between the rich and the poor has increased, so the opportunities have diminished, and because of the lack of achievement and education they have not been able to get the jobs that are available to more qualified people from abroad who are fitter and more educated.
“The government should have done more to provide incentives for white working class citizens to engage in these employments.
“Most of the white working class people in these areas are not equipped, they are not trained, they are not empowered.” ‘
Along with the first decade drop in industrial production since perhaps the Black Death it seems that this government has also created the first ever decrease in social mobility since when? The Norman Conquest perhaps?
Gordon Brown is facing questions about a “stash” of Labour Party money he used for his own private research projects.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/7011346/Gordon-Brown-faces-questions-about-stash-of-Labour-money.html
254 It makes Yes, Prime Minister seem sensible.
I know all politicians want to be pixed with sympathy figures and puppies, but hearing about how it was fixed up is very amusing.
I liked the shift-change when Tony’s staffers moved out and Gordon’s moved in without any handover.
Toddlers in government. Clinton’s people stealing all the W keys is much more entertaining
251 Come on. Can she play kingmaker yes but the nominee? The top guys in the GOP will do whatever it takes to prevent that and her sudden abandonment of Alaska effectively ruled her out. She could bo doubt rack up a good showing but a stop Palin candidate with credentials as strong as hers say Huckabee would have all the resources and backing needed. Best guess she will know that and will trade her endorsement for influence with the winner.
255. Plato
I don’t recall Austin Mitchell having much to say either when Total imported hundreds of foreign workers rather than employ locals.
British Jobs For British Workers evidentally not being applying in North-East Lincolnshire.
260 - Not Huckabee, but Palin is 50% likely to implode on Fox News.
220. Was it not Engels who said that the revolution in Britain would start among the workers of Belfast? that was due to the appalling exploitation of the workers that he saw; even worse that in his Manchester (Cottonopolis) home town. The Conservatives of 100 years ago played the Protestant Unionist card for electoral advantage and look where it’s got us!
Truly, religion is the opiate of the people.
Or, to be fair to religion, perhaps tribalism!
Peter Watt - for clear self-presentation reasons said he thought his book would have zero impact on the GE.
That may be true in terms of actually influences readers of the MoS, however I wonder what impact it will have on Labour activists?
When I read the stories I thought they were funny but nothing too awful. And then I tried substituting Cameron for Brown.
It totally changed my perception of it. I’d be dismayed if the leader of the Party I intended to support was involved in stuff like this - petty, small-minded, selfish and secretive.
The stuff about Harriet shows that both Tony and Gordon thought she was a threat to New Labour and/or an idiot.
Not good for motivating the troops.
260 - The top guys in the GOP are despised even more than those in the Democrats. Polling shows that congressional republicans are in the gutter. The only way that people like Steele and Gingrich have coped is to fold and wholeheartedly support the tea partiers. They have a monster on their hands and they really don’t know what to do.
Look at the polling, she has lied time after time, she is flaky in the extreme, she appears clueless (she apparently didn’t understand why there are two Koreas for example), but she is polling better and better. Ask why and it’s because ’she’s one of us’ or ’she’s different to the other politicians’. *That* is powerful and it’s not something that can be fought by the insiders like Romney, Huckabee and so on.
You need to stop thinking logically on this, look at it emotionally and then you can make the logic fit. Iowa? She appeals greatly there so could narrow the field in one fell swoop. Attacked by GOP insiders? Great, the voters think they are weak anyway. The media laugh at her? Great, it’s full of liberals who hate us and our country etc.
Even if you don’t agree then 8/1 is a damn good price for a bit of speculation.
261 I heard Austin intv on R5 during Expensesgate and he was amazingly smug/entitled to it/within the rules etc.
I was really surprised - I’d always had a bit of a soft spot for him up til then.
263 What you say encapsulates why myself,and many other Labour voters,roll our eyes/shudder almost every time Brown speaks-although I still suspect during the election campaign he will try to play ‘the senior statesman’,and try to patronise/condescend Cameron/Osborne as inexperienced wannabes- a card that may just still yield mileage
264 And she’s just been given a show on Fox - they aren’t stupid at spotting a winner either.
266. He might try, but the problem with ‘the senior statesman’ narrative is that there are so many stories (and footage) of him acting like a 3 year old
264 The odds look good but I think you seriously understimate the GOP leaders. No one will attack her directly. There are millions of ways to undercut her without frontal attacks. Add in huge money resources and a candidate such as Huckabee who is just as popular with the base in the policy areas that she gains support in and I think you are too off track in thinking she will get it. What does she have that Huckabee doesn’t apart from repelling independents and moderates in a way Huckabee doesn’t.
262 Political leaders may try to exploit nationalism for their own ends, but they wouldn’t get anywhere if nationalism meant nothing to the population.
The fact is that Unionists and Nationalists in Northern Ireland have very different world outlooks, and these have not been created through manipulation by the ruling classes.
If Northern Ireland’s political position had been settled for good, then the Orange/Green division might have become irrelevant, but it has never been settled.
268 O.K,I hear your point; maybe a more general ‘team ‘approach’ may be better for the Labour Party ie assuming GDP is back in positive next week (?)- comparisons could be drawn with the incumbent Chancellor,a grey-haired 50-something with a serious demeanour,against the very young George Osborne-I am sure Osborne is a totally decent human being,but his youth could be used against him effectively.
Thinking about it,apart from Ken Clarke,the ’senior’ shadow Cabinet face seems to be William Hague-who was made leader 10 years too young- the Tory cupboard ‘being bare’ could be another effective Labour campaign point.
It will be fascinating!
268 That’s the killer of the internet for him - it’s no longer chip paper media that a politico can hope to get away from.
Since Tony was elected in 2005, the number of people who can be reminded of horrors has grown exponentially - the geeks may have been the first to watch Gordon picking his nose etc, but all it needs is a few strong viral videos to take a chunk out of Gordon.
Cameron has his own faux pas but nothing on the scale of Brown - it’s a war that I can’t see Labour winning.
Marr digging up Gordon saying there’d be no election was just a taster of the past coming back to haunt him.
We’re very well acquainted with the skeletons rattling in political closets - if someone smart in CCHQ is a regular reader [and I assume several are] they don’t need to try terribly hard to come up with a list as long as my arm.
263 Plato - Dismay hardly covers my own response. Not just Peter Watt but also that report in the link @185: they seem amply to bear out the portrait of Mr Brown in Tom Bowers’ book.
Yet the Labour party can still believe the Conservative party would be a disaster for Britain and Mr Blunkett can still hope for a “miracle” to win Mr Brown’s Labour another 5 years. Dismayed - no, I’m appalled.
Mr Brown deals only in the short-term and also tells each audience what they want to hear. Unfortunately, all too many people are only interested in the short-term and also only hear what they want to hear. Mr Brown is a politician who mirrors the electorate. I am really afraid that Labour will pull off their so-called “miracle”.
269 - The leaders don’t, on the whole, control the vote on the candidate. Her supporters are a very noisy minority but, in a disillusioned and polarised electorate, that’s all that’s needed to create momentum.
Huckabee is distrusted because he’s a potential big spender and he doesn’t have ‘it’ as regards popularity. Amazon ranking of Huckabee’s latest book - 526,191. Amazon ranking of Palin’s latest - 13,190. This sort of populist outreach counts.
264. I think Sarah Palin’s prospective candidacy is a slightly different example of the old saying- the odds are good but the goods are odd.
She’s not going to come close to getting the nomination.
271 I’m sure you’re right on the Labour campaigning tactics.
Darling’s in a peculiar position - crap expenses, stuck his heels in against Brown, bullied into a bizarre PBR yet coming out of the closet in media interviews.
He’s also Scottish and very boring - a few years ago both would have been an asset [careful with money bank manager type], I’m not so sure either are helpful now.
274 It certainly would translate into a good showing but I rather think you are letting dislike her for her colour your view of her chances realistically. Of course the Leaders don’t control the vote but they can and do exercise a heckuva lot of influence amongst local organisers, donors and endorsements etc. Even Fox News will almost certainly not support her. They are not stupid and do not want to gift Obama a landslide by default.
Andrew
Following some lengthy discussions with a US Politico and former lobbyist here in the UK, a did a piece on the runners for the GOP nimination a few months back. Palin’s was one of the first names to be deleted.
I suggested Pence and Barbour as the best value bets, although Romney and Huckabee remain the likeliest nominees.
I think there has been some support for Barbour since I wrote.
If Palin were to not only win the candidacy but also the Presidency, it would be quite fun watching all the sanctimonious lefties’ heads exploding…
277 - I’m putting *aside* my dislike, I think she’d be a disaster for the USA and the world but that doesn’t mean I can’t see how and why she would get the nomination. I think you underestimate Americans popular anger at politicians as a whole and the system. We see it here at the moment but it’s exponentially greater in the US.
As for whether she could win or not? Of course she could. There is a vast swathe of America that doesn’t vote for example, if you can through to them as being different then who knows what is possible? Once you stop thinking ’surely not’ then you start to understand how she ’surely could’.
279 Even joking about Sarah Palin being US President is beyond the pale- to most on all sides of the political spectrum
(FWIW,if she was GOP candidate,most would expect her to suffer a 1964 Goldwater scale landslide defeat!)
Sky are running with Clegg being all indignant about ‘philandering husbands leaving their wives’
He comes across as really OTT. I’d like the LDs to do well - we could do with a change in who’s in Opposition, Clegg needs some serious media training or to have some diazepam before appearing
278. Just found a post of mine from back in September touting Barbour:
http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2009/09/26/will-obama-be-a-one-term-wonder/#comment-1230388
I stand by my statement from then that I’d really like Jon Huntsman to run and win.
282 - petulant Clegg is very different from passionate Clegg - which we do see on occasion. And the former is a disaster.
TimT — Indeed. Scott’s now Favorite on Intrade!
282. Plato.
I’ve been listening to 5 Live for the football. Their half-time news bulletin said “The Liberal Democrats have joined Labour in attacking Conservative plans…”
The Vote Yellow, Get Brown bandwagon rolls on…
283 Huntsman is very unlikely for 2012: maybe 2016 though.
It’ not that he’s a mormon, or Obama’s ambassador to China. He just doesn’t have the name recognition and isn’t going to get it out in Beijing.
Shame though. I took the 66/1 before Obama appointed him.
280 If Palin won anything again, I’d be concerned - however, she’s got something charmingly folksy about her - on a shallow voter level she scores a lot of hits.
She’s very pretty, has lots of kids, pro hunting-n-shooting, big on God et al and attacked big time by liberals.
She may not know there is both North and South Korea - but frankly how many US citizens could name either or in PB terms identify islands with shared sovereignty.
Those who mock her need to remember that they aren’t the audience she’s playing to.
There is at least 1 argument for Palin as nominee which is if Obama’s numbers pick up. If the next election looks like another GOP suicide run, would they rather sacrifice Palin or someone else?
277 Fox have given Palin her own show - she’s a ratings winner or they’d never have done it.
Romney also has a book coming out soon (in March) called “No Apology: The Case for American Greatness”. It will be interesting to see how it is received.
286 Mr Statto - they know not what they do
288 Plato
Palin would be a total disaster.
That’s not just the snob in me talking. I have nothing against populism - but only when it is done by politicians who know exactly what they are doing and use populism responsibly. Palin, author of “death panels”, and “pals around with terrorists”? Scares the bejeezus out of me.
The idea that someone so stupid could possibly end up anywhere near the levers of power is frightening.
289 Good call-I always suspected the GOP knew 2008 was mission impossible,and put a 72 year-old up as that year’s ’sacrifice’
247. After a decade of being overseen by Brown, it’s hardly surprising the Treasury is a burnt-out wreck of a department.
288 Palin is a dreadful old screech owl - viscerally unpleasant voice and completely vacuous in the brain department. She is, without hyperbolae, everything that is wrong with the world in one plastic package.
She also prays at the altar of old white beard and his magic creating stick and should be laughed at by small children and animals for being a twit.
289 The sacrifce of an individual is one thing, Scott. The sacrifice of the Party is quite another.
The GOP can be pretty practical when it needs to be. It held its nose and picked McCain. Events proved it right. It would know that picking Palin runs the risk of ignominy and long-term damage to its prospects.
I noted Timbo yesterday offering odds on which planet they would find Nadines main home on.
Could he perhaps add this one to the tote and provide the odds for Uddin as well? Perhaps Jacquie Homesec Smith could be added as well just to make it a good competition.
“Baroness Uddin claimed another £91,000
On Sunday, it was reported that between 2001 and 2005, Lady Uddin had declared as her main home a house in Frinton on Sea, Essex, which is owned and occupied by her brother. That allowed her to claim £91,000 in allowances for peers whose main home is outside London, according to the Sunday Times”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/7011410/MPs-expenses-Baroness-Uddin-claimed-another-91000.html
293 I agree completely - she makes Dan Quayle look smart.
However, if you aren’t too smart - I can see the appeal she has.
I don’t think she’d be POTUS in a zillion years - her folksy charm would be worth zip once she starts talking for more than 2 mins.
Her resignation speech was a ramble of epic proportions - it lasted something like 20mins before she got to the point.
I’m quite impressed by Mitt myself and don’t like the prejudice about the fact he’s a Mormon. If he thinks all his ancestors are waiting to see him on a cloud - fair enough, their records have been invaluable for genealogists.
Telegraph’s list of most influential US conservatives - top four were Cheney, Limbaugh, Drudge, Palin, all pretty extreme (Beck comes in at six). This is the way the wind blows.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/usa/6990965/The-most-influential-US-conservatives-20-1.html
And in the comments they are ranting about the list not being conservative enough (calling McCain ‘Obama-lite’, disparaging Huckabee as not conservative etc.)
299. “I’m quite impressed by Mitt myself and don’t like the prejudice about the fact he’s a Mormon. If he thinks all his ancestors are waiting to see him on a cloud - fair enough, their records have been invaluable for genealogists.”
I have a profound mistrust for any religious group that took until the late 70s to decide that maybe black people weren’t inferior to ahites after all.
297. Peter, so what you’re saying is that a political party putting forward a candidate so blindingly obviously unfit for office risks permanent and lasting damage to the reputation of that party.
I like where you’re going with this…
301 handy people to have around if you need canned goods though.
For your delectation, it’s DAVID CAMERON FACTS.
http://www.davidcameronfacts.co.uk/
This Scottish alcohol thing statement is a bit misleading if about booze sold, not booze drunk - I’m sure many of us have bottles of wine, beer and spirits that we bought in 2009 that have not all been consumed yet.
who’s got money on s brown?! Most fascinating race since 2008! Really. Political earthquack in MA…
296. Palin is not a creationist, but she appeals to a lot of people who are…
300 I’m not surprised, but thought Beck would do better.
I listen to a lot of US talk show/radio and after overcoming the culture shock, I can see why it’s become so popular.
Limbaugh pulled a very amusing stunt a day or so ago and stitched up Damian Thompson of the DT. Damian read what the liberals had reported Rush said about Haiti donations and he went into total outrage mode.
What he’d missed was that it was a deliberate choice of words that parodied the words of a Democrat being very rude about Obama [a light skin who doesn't talk Negro IIRC] and Obama using Haiti as an opportunity for an interweb PPB.
Rush predicted that these words would be used to beat him with - and he was spot on. Regular listeners understood exactly the point he was making.
Here’s the link to Damian’s article - he must feel like a right plonker.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/damianthompson/100022489/rush-limbaugh-on-haiti-simply-disgusting/
the GOP is very strong now! Betting on them this year’s gonna be lucrative…
305 I can offer personal testimony that alcohol on my premises has about 12hrs to live
305. I assume you are joking. There are, I would guess, very few wine racks in Wester Hailes, and the locals do not lay down cases of vintage Smirnoff in their vodka cellars for future gratification.
305 tres
Cheap vodka is excellent for cleaning the silverware. I suspect that the figure has been hugely inflated by the need for such activity at Auchentannoch.
305 - The scottish alcohol thing is not totally misleading, as they may have had some stored from 2008 that they drank in 2009, this thing does tend to average out over the long term.
One area where is may be misleading is that some of the alcohol may not have been drunk, it may have been spilt (God forbid), or the bottle broken.
I wonder what they’ll be drinking on election night this year? On that subject, I wonder what the taxpayer’s bill for champagne will be at Beeb house?
@307:
Palin’s in favour of teaching kids superstitious creationist bullshit in school. That makes her creationist enough to be dangerous.
limbaugh is right in that the US already gave TONS of cash to Haiti! Several times. Must suck to be a Haitian… Yet not much the developped West can do anymore mefears
304 That is really sad and unfunny - I assume it was created by a lefty humour bypass interwebber.
If you haven’t seen it - Anna Raccoon has a fabulous post on the difference between bloggers from the left and from the right.
http://www.annaraccoon.com/politics/the-left-wing-blogosphere-nailing-your-colours-to-the-mast/
302 It’s an apt enough comparison, Scott.
It astonishes me that the PLP could knowingly have elected somebody who risked sending the Party into a terminal decline. The signs ae at the moment that it won’t be that bad, but there’s a fair bit of time to go to the election and the best Labour can hope for is that things get a little better. Otoh there’s always the possibilty they could get very much worse.
Naturally my betting reflects this possibility.
301 the rastafarians and the followers of the nation of islam have yet to have the revelation that peoples skin colour is irrelevant.
how can teaching theology be dangerous if the kids r learning biology as well?
More snow next week?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1243755/Brief-respite-Big-Freeze–snow-set-return-week.html
Are Q1 GDP figures going to be horrendous?
314. I clearly remember been taught about the garden of eden when i was at school here in the uk.
318. Well, indeed. I hope my post didn’t come across as an epistle supporting Louis Farrakhan.
On the bit about Tory tax proposals for married couples Ed Balls has popped up and said the policy was “unfair” and amounted to “social engineering”.
Just wondering after 13 years of social engineering from Labour in every area how does he think he can get away with a statement like that which seems to better apply in the circumstances to civil partnerships? Naturally it is well promulgated on the State Broadcaster of course along with a nice easy ride for Cleggs ‘instant delight’ policy on immigration this morning on Marr. Not a peep on the former Chairman of Labour surprise! surprise!
I sort of now get the feeeling (despite the PPB on the one show) the narrative is changing slightly and our state broadcaster (and others) have now finally given up on an overall Labour victory and doing all it can to boost the Libdems to take votes from the Tories and provide the stepping stones in case of a hung parliament and a future lib/lab pact.
I also note today normally Labour leaning posters talking up the Marr interview with Clegg as well. I believe a hung parliament is as good as impossible given the shear hatred I see up and down the country in my travels for Labour but any port in a storm so to speak.
Interesting times all the same as panic starts to set into the Government that their hold on power is coming to an inglorious end and the realisation they are also going to lose and lose big.
320, I’m sure they’ll be massaged helpfully. I mean, compiled thoroughly.
296 hyperbolae - wonderful malapropism!
Just going to watch the Politics Show (Balls) on the iPlayer. It looks like the BBC have loaded up a full hour prog for each region. Why not just upload the 30 minute national bit, and then the 30 minute regional bits separately?
I wonder what they’ll be drinking on election night this year? On that subject, I wonder what the taxpayer’s bill for champagne will be at Beeb house?
by JSK January 17th, 2010 at 3:37 pm
I fully expect the bill to be zero unless it is possible (or even allowable) to drown one’s sorrows with top quality champagne.
286 LondonStatto
This paints a picture of the Brown/Cameron/Clegg TV debates as being Brown and Clegg against Cameron. Should boost Cameron’s vote no end.
325 Yeah, threw myself a bit of a curve ball there
327 I hear meths is good value for money
208 Plato
I recall a podcast Matthew Parris did for The Times at the Conservatives conference, he spoke to Edwina Currie, and she had some sort of official party role then.
if anyone knows the results of today’s PPP POLL re MA-Senate, please post ‘em
Balls by name, balls by nature. Dear God, a Balls-Burnham fatherhood pamphlet.
If he loses in Morley & Outwood I might just laugh so hard my head falls off.
304 - oh dear - I googled Gordon brown facts
http://wiki.answers.com/Q/Facts_about_Gordon_Brown
“He likes shopping at Asda and is a freak and he likes eating terd”
An interesting perspective on Labour’s Muslim vote strategy
http://www.lettersfromatory.com/2010/01/17/labours-desperation-for-votes-sinks-to-new-low/
cheap vodka acts an excellent cleaning agent for an ice cream machine.
balls seemed to have been turned into a parrot with squawks of tax breaks for the many not the few, he sounded like some poor lost sole from militant repeating list of memorable roundrdup numbers and apit prop phrases for his adled brain.
339 “he sounded like some poor lost sole” - yes, very much a fish out of water.
Vodka is also excellent in car windscreen washers.
340 Vodka used as windscreen wash is too profligate even by my 80s yuppy standards!
If you missed it HIGNFY has a very amusing intro - that doesn’t mention Gordon.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b007cly1/Have_I_Got_News_for_You_Series_33_Episode_3/
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1243836/How-BBCs-professor-journalism-improved-rivals-biography.html
“How the BBC’s ‘impartial’ professor of journalism ‘improved’ his rival’s Wikipedia biography”
Four posts in half an hour - has everyone gone for tiffin?
344. Evidently.
344 Chris A
Carry On Up the Election?
Well FWIW, I was switching cars as mine was sruck in the garage for a week and I only got it out yesterday.I had had to use my wife’s which pleased her no end. A bit of hoovering (one has to show willing) and repatriating 50 bottles of St Clair 2006 (special offer 6.99 less 5% for 6 bottles or more )from the boot of my car improved my humour no end when I noticed yoday that it is now priced at a ridiculous 14.99 a bottle.
Humour took a dive after Fulham went 2=0 down…
Amused that the Daily Mail started run lots of negative articles on Brown/Blair and their working relationship since word broke about them teaming up again in the election campaign.
Tories should be very worried. Blair has an unblemished record defeating the nasty party in elections.
344 Chris A
Four posts in half an hour - has everyone gone for tiffin?
I thin URW is taking a post prandial nap, and everyone is too Fearful to wake him.
348
The truth about Blair and Brown is now laid bare. I wouldn’t be relying on that if I were you… especially after Blair has been to see the Chilcott enquiry.
348. Not entirely unblemished:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beaconsfield_by-election,_1982
348 - Richie. I would be shocked if Blair came back for one last hurrah. After his visit to the Iraq Inquiry I expect he will be a huge liability….
348 Richie Rich
The only advantage to Brown of Blair campaigning in the General Election will be that he may be able to exit No 10 with his belongings in Louis Vuitton bags.
re 348 Richie if the thought of Blair coming to the rescue of new Labour comforts you then so be it, but I’m afraid having such lurid thoughts will only make 7th May even more bleak.
There is a wonderful clip of Peter Watt and Pound debating Watts book on Iain Dale’s website, Pound argues that the truth (the book) should have been suppressed until after the election….
re 351 if only he’d given up after that drubbing the world would now be a much safer place.
twitter rocks — u can ask questions to prestigious journalists and pollsters; they all replied to my precise queries!
357 Philippe. Did you see my posting at 13 above?
355 - Pound really is nothing more than a rent-a-gob.
359 Pound is an extra from the Munsters
358/357 Ignore that Philippe, just seen your post at 288
i did TimT; i even replied!
im off to sleep.
351. That was Anthony Blair, Tony Blair was later.
I still have a lot of admiration for what Tony Blair achieved for the party and the country. And I know tens of millions of Britons feel the same way, despite the issue of Iraq. My eyes almost start watering up at the thought of the introduction of the minimum wage; Tony’s biggest and most significant achievement by far.
Chilcott isn’t going to inflict any damage on him. And the general public have already formed their opinions of Blair and the Iraq war anyway.
Blair can still be a huge asset for the New Labour project moving into the next election. Make no mistake Blair and Brown would be formidable opponents for the Tories. And that’s why the Daily Mail has gone very negative this weekend on the pair.
It would also reinvigorate the grass roots New Labour movement to get out there and save the country from the Tories.
364 Your alter ego has taken over again
“Blair can still be a huge asset for the New Labour project moving into the next election. Make no mistake Blair and Brown would be formidable opponents for the Tories. And that’s why the Daily Mail has gone very negative this weekend on the pair.
It would also reinvigorate the grass roots New Labour movement to get out there and save the country from the Tories.
by Richie Rich January 17th, 2010 at 5:09
Professions told: ‘Cut private school recruits’
Professions such as medicine and the law must stop recruiting entrants predominantly educated at private schools, ministers will say today.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/7012085/Professions-told-Cut-private-school-recruits.html
366 Those pesky middle-class voters are everywhere
re 264 Oh come off it Richie pull the other one. When given the chance in 2005 he couldn’t even persuade 10 million to vote for him (less than 22% of those eligible to vote. Hoping that Labour might do better in the forthcoming election is one thing, out and out delusion is another. Look up the election results in 97, 01 and 05 - the more we knew about Blair the fewer people voted for him.
I hope that the Chilcott enquiry shows Blair for the lying, cheating, disgusting, war mongering fantasist that he is and tens of millions will probably hope likewise.
364 Richie Rich
the [Sunday] Mail has gone very negative this weekend on the pair [Blair & Brown]
All the Sunday Mail has done is to give column inches to Peter Watt, the former Secretary General of the Labour Party. The Labour Party is not being attacked by journalists from the “nasty party”, they are being killed by friendly fire.
Hoon and Hewitt yesterday. Watt today. Who will it be tomorrow?
As Brown and his party fight to survive we are witnessing ugly scenes of cannibalism. Dog eat dog.
so, Labour poor money into education and tell us that education is the priority…. and yet…..
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/7011549/Poor-schools-fuelling-boom-in-private-tuition.html
“She said: “There is a fear factor among parents. They are unsettled by constantly changing initiatives, lack of confidence in local schools dropping standards and underqualified teachers.”
Figures published last week revealed how many comprehensive schools were failing their pupils in English and Maths, with hundreds of thousands getting worse grades at 16 than in comparable exams they took at aged 11.
According to the latest league tables the majority of children at 965 state secondary schools – almost a third in England – fell behind in either English or mathematics.”
“It would also reinvigorate the grass roots New Labour movement to get out there and save the country from the Tories”
FFS! after the total utter wanton destruction and vandalisim Labour have wreaked in all areas of life and this country….some people STILL believe this??? Ye gods!
PS - Whenever I hear ‘nasty party’ mentioned now (which is one hell of a lot) it is always in reference to labour so do keep those comments coming because all people now think about when it is said is Labour.
I had to take my son to work this morning at an unheard of hour for me on a Sunday……
Anyway, this little initiative
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/election-2010/7012279/Labour-plans-lessons-for-fathers-as-parties-battle-over-the-family.html
Was getting an absolute kicking on R5, not many people will have been listening though as it was on about 6:45am
364 Richie Rich “I still have a lot of admiration for what Tony Blair achieved for the party and the country. And I know tens of millions of Britons feel the same way”
A little bit of exaggeration here, Richie? Tens of millions. At a minimum, that’s 20 million, but in a single, dual, plural system, that is a minimum of 30 million. In an electorate of 44 million, I seriously doubt that Blair would still find nearly 50%/75% of the electorate feeling warm and fuzzy about him.
364. “My eyes almost start watering up at the thought of the introduction of the minimum wage; Tony’s biggest and most significant achievement by far.”
Haha.
So Gordon is selling himself as a champion of the middle classes. There is, as various commentators have pointed out, more than a little bit of hyposcrisy about that. But the thing that strikes me most about our PM’s change of tack is how similar it is to Darling’s honesty over cuts last weekend.
Like Darling’s admission, it represents some sort of progress for Labour: on paper, the politics of aspiration should play better – and have wider appeal – than the crude class war that they’ve engaged in recently. But, also like Darling’s admission, it highlights just how inconsistent the government have been over the last few months. I mean, a government which only weeks ago proposed national insurance hikes – and which has, day after day, cast misleading aspersions about the Tories’ inheritance tax plan – is now talking about aspiration? Get away.
The simple fact is that Labour’s policy is now determined by who is on top in the stuggle between Brown and Balls, on one side, and people like Mandelson and Darling, on the other. Any shift in the power relations between now and the next election, and we’re likely to see a different emphasis again. This does not a credible government make.
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/5712033/labours-policy-is-a-hostage-to-their-internal-struggles.thtml
re 364. Your views on Mr. Blair seem to be totally different from this post when you said ” I thought Tony Blair was a terrible prime minister. I only voted for him and New Labour once.”.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2009/08/06/the-new-election-model-part-ii/comment-page-3/#comment-1170244
158 dez - Cameron has stated immigration policy will be a cap in the “tens of thousands”.
376- mucho lol
I’ve just done a Yougov survey with loads of corporate stuff and a few non voting intention questions, which politicians do you feel positively/negatively about and which party is best to handle these issues.
A Conservative MP has threatened to report Gordon Brown to a sleaze watchdog over claims he had a “secret” fund to pay for private polling.
Greg Hands wants claims by Labour’s former general secretary that £50,000 a year in party donations were kept in a “fund with no name” investigated.
Peter Watts said he suspected it had been used by Mr Brown in his campaign to oust Tony Blair as prime minister.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8464008.stm
376 - oh dear
Loooooooooool
bit like the labour party itself, losing track of the lies.
370 - Of course the Telegraph identifies the reason as rising Private School fees.
Meanwhile fees at some of the top public schools have now broken through the £30,000 a year barrier leading to warnings that unless fees are capped private education will become a “luxury” available to only the richest of families.
Coaching a child through an eleven plus has always bee cheaper than posh schools in Grammar areas, where the untutorable rich and the offspring of drug dealers play together.
376 – Well done to OGH for exposing yet another dishonest Labour troll.
Keep it up.
:lol: 
372 Floater
I always note when these ideas come up you can guess what photo will be on the newspapaer page. Yup Ed Balls as always when these sudden fruitloop ideas appear. The main issue here is we just need to forget it and now ignore.
Balls is the Bunker general moving the imaginary army around planning their next offensive and keeping the deluded Brown happy as the opposition votes arrive at the gates of No 10 Downing Prospekt.
They (Labour) can issue as many plans, projects, initiatives and ideas as they like not one of them not a single one has a snowballs chance in hell of ever seeing the light of day. The country could have been saved a lot sooner if Labour had called a GE instead as another did in history facing a no win situation they are now just intent on taking everyone down with them.
Mike keeps reposting that whenever I comment on Tony Blair. I count that the fourth time.
I could really careless how many times he reposts that single comment, made only to get a point across on a site where unless you’re a vile Tory supporter you get nowhere. I have posted about hundred times since that Tony Blair was great prime minister. GREAT. Better than Thatcher. Better than Major. Better than Churchill.
re 376 rinsed - as I believe YoofSpeak has it.
Had our largest phone canvass today for a long time - over 500 contacts in largely working-class areas, including many pensioners. Opinion here is…mixed…on whether this sort of thing from me is worth listening to, but FWIW:
- I don’t have any doubt at all that the ‘former Labour now doubtful’ vote is firming up, but it’s not because their opinion of Labour has improved: it’s because the Tories are more prominent. For the first time, we’re getting spontaneous comments that people *in this category* are being alienated by Cameron. Whether that’s a reaction to the posters (nobody mentioned them) or just a general “not one of us” reaction I don’t know.
- The “all the parties are rubbish” reaction remains common. We’re making apparent progress by getting them to agree that in that case they should vote for their good local MP; whether that will survive in the heat of a national election is hard to say - but it may be another nail in the coffin of uniform swing.
- Immigration comes up frequently, but rarely in a vote-switching sense. People often want to have a moan about it, but they largely see it as like the weather, something none of the parties will change.
- Nobody mentioned Iraq, Europe or inheritance tax, one way or the other.
Had a satisfying exchange reasoning with an apparent madman:
“I think Hitler was right, except he should have gone for the Muslims, not Jews.”
“I’m afraid I disagree: I don’t think anyone should be killed for their religion.
“Well, no, I wouldn’t want to kill them.”
“But that’s what Hitler did, isn’t it?”
“Well, yeah, but he was evil.”
“I think we should crack down on trouble-makers of any religion and let everyone else get on with their lives.”
“Yeh, well, suppose I agree with that.”
I’ve still put him down as “anti”…
383. ” I have posted about hundred times since that Tony Blair was great prime minister. GREAT. Better than Thatcher. Better than Major. Better than Churchill.”
Better than Churchill. Tony Blair was better than Churchill. I think we’ll be quoting this one for a while.
373 - I get a warm and fuzzy feeling when I think that Labour might win the next election.
Unfortunately the warm feeling is in my pants, I think I’ve disraced myself.
The fuzzy feeling is in my head, it feels like a hangover.
385. “For the first time, we’re getting spontaneous comments that people *in this category* are being alienated by Cameron. Whether that’s a reaction to the posters (nobody mentioned them) or just a general “not one of us” reaction I don’t know.”
Any chance your relentless “The Tories are nasty baby eating toffs who hate you and your family” campaign has influenced them at all?
Interesting news that the BBC is to put the Weather Forecasting contract up for grabs, this would be the first time since 1923
386. It doesn’t really matter what I think. As I said, you only have to see the Tory media having fits this weekend about Tony Blair again to get the real picture from the opposition. They fear him, they know he was a great prime minister, and they know he will be a potent weapon in the fight to save Britain from the Tories.
ToryPoliticalBetting.com isn’t going to dampen my excitement and enthusiasm for this move by Brown and New Labour strategists. It’s potentially the game changer as far as I’m concerned.
384- some of this points resonate with my own experience canvassing
- The “all the parties are rubbish” reaction remains common
- Immigration comes up frequently
- Nobody mentioned Iraq, Europe or inheritance tax, one way or the other.
-Had a satisfying exchange reasoning with an apparent madman
I haven’t found anyone who has said that they will switch their vote because of immigration, but a few people who said they hadn’t previously voted have said they will vote BNP becuase of it.
The random mad people you meet are one of the (few) joys of canvassing.
Good to see Arsenal stuffing traitor Coyle’s Bolton. Let’s hope theyt go down.
390- he wasn’t a great PM but he was arguably a great leader of the Labour Party.
re 390. Was that the same person posting as Richie Rich? It looks mighty odd to me.
390. “It’s potentially the game changer as far as I’m concerned.”
Oh it is. Brown’s so crap they’ve had to dig up his predecessor. Vote Labour.
386 “Better than Churchill”
I have made my point. I only hope it happens and then we’ll see who is right. Enjoy the rest of your weekend everyone.
I find it odd Nick never finds anybody positive for the Tories.
Regarding Blair - taking the most generous assumption, that people still like him and would vote for him, the problem is that they won’t be voting for him. They’d be voting for Brown. Bringing Blair in just highlights that.
sorry 386 that was to 383 It was just the shock of seeing such a statement made on a public forum and not being able to see the the correct number through the tears of laughter.
“I have made my point. ”
The one where you said Blair or brilliant, or the one where you said he was crap?
393 Bob. Exactly. A lot of people might agree that Blair was a great leader of the labour party in that he saved them from unelectability. But a large number of those people truly wish he hadn’t bothered/succeeded, for what New Labour has done to the country.
I’m afraid I agree with Richie, bring back Blair, the saviour of New Labour. The greatest PM since the position was established. The saviour of the world.
Yeah right, Iraq, DAVID KELLY, sanctioning the pensions raid, ECCLESTONE, need I go on?????
Jack Straw privately warned Tony Blair that an invasion of Iraq was legally dubious, questioned what such action would achieve, and challenged US claims about the threat from Saddam Hussein, it was revealed today .
Straw, foreign secretary at the time, gave what now seems prophetic advice in a letter marked “secret and personal”, 10 days before Blair met George Bush at the US president’s ranch in Crawford, Texas, in April 2002. That was nearly a year before the invasion.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2010/jan/17/straw-blair-iraq-war-letter-chilcot
NPMP I don’t have any doubt at all that the ‘former Labour now doubtful’ vote is firming up
I think you are right the problem for Labour is its firming up in the wrong areas and in seats that you would win anyway outright with a shop manakin so long as it had a red rosette. Its a boost internally but not a winning position in a GE. Labour just have to do better centrally and in the south to stand any chance whatsoever and even if Brown says he’s now the middle class saviour after rogering us sensless for 13 years as the chancellor and the PM it still won’t be enough.
As an aside I also listen and chat to people when on buisness the length of the land in companies, in bars and airports etc etc and the overwhelming opinion with some notable exceptions is Brown / Labour are finished and people hate what you have done and turned this country into. Like I said there are some exceptions of course like Scotland but even there (Aberdeen)I saw some dissent that was not previously seen.
Tony Blair’s former communications chief has written a letter to amend evidence he gave regarding the former prime minister to a public inquiry into the Iraq war earlier this week.
During a five hour appearance before the inquiry on Tuesday, Alistair Campbell was asked questions on several aspects of the run-up to the war, including a controversial September 2002 dossier which set out the case against Iraq’s Saddam Hussein.
Campbell, a former journalist who was one of Blair’s closest advisers from 1994 to 2003, left his job after a huge public row with the BBC over claims the government exaggerated intelligence.
During his testimony, Campbell said he stood by Blair’s use of the words “beyond doubt” to describe the existence of intelligence that Iraq had an active weapons of mass destruction (WMD) programme.
When asked whether he would agree Blair had misled parliament if it turned out intelligence chiefs had thought the use of the phrase “beyond doubt” was not justified, Campbell had answered “No, I wouldn’t.”
But a day later Campbell wrote a letter to explain that despite what he might have appeared to suggest to the inquiry, Blair would not have made such claims about the WMD programme if intelligence chiefs had disagreed with him.
http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKTRE60G1OI20100117
Yup, the timing is perfect for Tony Blair to return and campaign. Bring it on!!
Yeah in his rush to get his peacemaker tag Blair helped this shower into power as well.
http://www.tribune.ie/news/article/2010/jan/17/exclusive-gerry-adams-ignored-two-more-rape-victim/
http://www.tribune.ie/news/article/2010/jan/17/liam-adams-was-never-dumped-from-sinn-fein/
http://www.tribune.ie/news/article/2010/jan/17/adams-was-told-about-what-x-had-done-to-me/
http://www.tribune.ie/news/article/2010/jan/17/grand-niece-of-provo-legend-endured-horrific-sexua/
286.”I’ve been listening to 5 Live for the football. Their half-time news bulletin said “The Liberal Democrats have joined Labour in attacking Conservative plans…””
Says it all really. The Libdems strategy is to prevent a Conservative government rather than remove the current Labour government. Their success in achieving their current seat tally has been totally dependent on this strategy. They think it will work again to shore up those previous gains, in the hope of treading water rather than falling back and losing their momentum over the last 3 GE’s.
Only problem is that they cannot come up with even a coherent plan for what they will do if there is a hung parliament, and they might then have to support one of the main parties. Labour would be tricky because they are on the wane and they don’t want to be seen propping up an unpopular government ‘officially’. But while the electorate might view them more favourable if they support the Tories, this would be totally unacceptable to many of their activists. So we will have the old PR price tag attached again. Yawn. Its about as useful as the no to an independence referendum barrier back in 2007.
The Libdems are pursuing a highly negative and nasty attack strategy towards the Conservative party, they are desperately hoping to make the current Tory party look toxic to the voters again. But I don’t think they realise just how risky such a strategy is at this point when people want a change from a tired and discredited government, this could backfire spectacularly. There is a good chance that they will in fact turn their own brand toxic and losing the mr nice guy alternative with these types of attacks, and it also links them even more closely to the current Labour government.
They need to be very clear and coherent about what they will do in a Hung Parliament scenario, and its got to resonate with their GE campaign strategy or its a complete mess.
Nice one Mike
Another classic from the same thread Mike just pointed towards
“The recession is over. If you want to wait for official figures while clinging to your Tory voting slip then fine. But with every key sector now registering growth, it’s pure fantasy to believe the British economy is still in decline”
by Richie Rich August 6th, 2009 at 12:39 pm
Oh dear, Oh dear dear me….
408. 286. No Christina, if the Tories come up with a crap policy, we’ll say its a crap policy. In this case (unaffordable tax breaks for married couples) it was so obviously crap, even Labour managed to spot it too.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/election-2010/7012279/Labour-plans-lessons-for-fathers-as-parties-battle-over-the-family.html
Remember, Ed Balls is against using money for ’social engineering’; he said so only yesterday.
385.”We’re making apparent progress by getting them to agree that in that case they should vote for their good local MP; whether that will survive in the heat of a national election is hard to say - but it may be another nail in the coffin of uniform swing.”
Isn’t that the hope of every Labour/Libdem/SNP MP in a marginal seat where the Conservatives are the best placed opponent to unseat them?
It’s up to the LibDems how they campaign, but my concern would be that, yet again, the BBC is presenting a Conservative policy in light of those attacking it.
408 - Given that lots of Tories don’t support the marriage policy and their leader is unable to articulate it in any meaningful form, then attacking it is perfectly logical.
Defending it seems the strange line to take.
383. Itchy Dick. I’ve just come back and your here!
isn’t going to dampen my excitement and enthusiasm
Oh my god your excited. Oh no. I suppose that means you are going to be washing all sorts of unmentionable sticky fluids off your screen all week. Yuck…..
I don’t know if anyone else thinks how sad it is to get ‘excited’ about the return of a has-been rejected politician who had previously been thrown out by his own people and put out to grass.
Brown must really be desperate if he’s turning to Bush’s bosom pal ‘Yo Blair’.
366 So, is it the middle class vote they’re after, or are they back to the core vote strategy again? I’m confused.
The barriers to entry into law and medicine are huge - not because the professions want to keep out talented people from working class backgrounds, but because the cost of funding your way through university and then law/medical school is massive. Given that Labour have introduced tuition fees, it’s a bit rich to complain that the well-heeled find it easier to get professional qualifications.
Then, once you’ve qualified, the cost of things like practising certificates, and professional indemnity insurance is enormous. And Labour have cut back sharply on legal aid payments. So, starting one’s own firm, or making a living as a junior barrister, is a good deal harder than it was a generation ago.
It’s hard to imagine that someone from the background of Lord Denning for example, could now pursue a legal career.
412. “Isn’t that the hope of every Labour/Libdem/SNP MP in a marginal seat where the Conservatives are the best placed opponent to unseat them?”
Hmmm. Except for the SNP MPs, who on a uniform swing would be likely to see a slight increase in their majority over the Tories. Certainly the Tories will probably have to buck the Scotland-wide trend to gain seats from the SNP.
In truth, the incumbent Liberal Democrats are likely to be much more to be resilient against the Tories than their Labour counterparts, and that will only be partly due to the virtues of the sitting MPs.
408 - Given that lots of Tories don’t support the marriage policy and their leader is unable to articulate it in any meaningful form, then attacking it is perfectly logical.
Defending it seems the strange line to take.
Test
409 Simply “not being in decline” is nothing to write home about.
383. “I could really care less”. Are you American? It might explain the Blair love-fest.
Re Labour and recognising marriage, how things change..
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1566035/Minister-hints-at-tax-reforms-for-marriage.html
385 Many Conservative MPs were convinced in 1997 that however badly their party did, they could buck the trend.
In a few cases, like David Heathcote-Amory, and Richard Shepherd, they were right, but they were far outweighed by the ones like Michael Portillo, and Rhodes Boyson, who no one thought were in any danger.
jsfl
Brown must really be desperate if he’s turning to Bush’s bosom pal ‘Yo Blair’.
I had to do a double take on that I thought you put ‘yogi bear’
NPMP - I live in Amber Valley, but have worked in Broxtowe for a number of years. I see little love for Labour there, save for those who always vote Labour. Mostly I hear scorn, sometimes pity, but above all a determination to be rid of them. Don’t get me wrong, there are plenty of Labour voters there, some who are still energised, but I suspect not in sufficient numbers to prevent the Tories taking the seat with a reasonable majority.
410.Allan, and my wider point about the current Libdem strategy to almost solely focus on attacking their Conservative opponents, with the view to preventing them from forming the next government?
366 - This from the party which shut most of the grammar schools!!!!
415. I think, given the enormous task they face, the incoming Tory government will need a “rule of thumb” to speed things up.
I suggest they work by the rule: whatever Labour did, we do the opposite, whatever law they introduced, we will repeal, whatever policy they adopted, we will reverse, whatever agency they established, we shall abolish.
As long as they stick by this, they won’t go too wrong.
The SF thing sounds like it might be significant either way.
If it’s a faction trying to get rid of Adamas for their own purposes e.g not hard-line enough, then it might be a bad sign.
On the other hand it might be a sign of peace-time morality asserting itself over war-time morality which would be something else.
Double standards row as Ed Balls refuses to ban smacking at mosque schools to avoid ‘upsetting Muslim sensitivities’
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1243871/Double-standards-row-Ed-Balls-refuses-ban-smacking-mosque-schools-avoid-upsetting-Muslim-sensitivities.html#ixzz0ctg2Hihf
Labour plans lessons for fathers as parties battle over the family
New fathers will get lessons in parenting to ensure they get involved in their children’s upbringing under Governments plans to be published this week.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/election-2010/7012279/Labour-plans-lessons-for-fathers-as-parties-battle-over-the-family.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter
420. LOL
How could you mix up the two? It’s pretty obvious that Yogi is ‘better than the average (any) socialist’!
Geoff Hoon ‘denied Iraq soldiers equipment that could have saved lives’
Tories demand that Chilcot inquiry establishes whether then defence secretary delayed ordering body armour
http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2010/jan/17/geoff-hoon-body-armour-iraq
424. Wouldn’t reinstating Saddam Hussein be a bit tricky? If not downright ghoulish?
422 You and several other Tory posters seem to interpret every cirticism the Lib Dems make of rubbsih Tory policies as being part of a strategy to concentrate on attacking the Tories.
Others see every criticism the Lib Dems make of the rubbish Labour Government as being part a strategy to concentrate on attacking the Tories.
In fact the Lib Dem strategy is to criticise each of the other parties where they disagree with them and on many issues to criticise both the other parties on particular issues (Iraq, Tuition Fees etc.)
The Lib Dems will not want to be seen as sidling up to either of the other main parties. They are far better off presenting themselves as being independent from and different to both of them. Andthat means putting effort into criticising both.
Re 427.
Labour plans lessons for fathers
They too can bring their children up to be the next Gordon Brown or Harriet Harman…
Perhaps they might want to rethink that one…..
424 I dont think Labour ordered the execution of Saddam…
431. The Lib Dems will not want to be seen as sidling up to either of the other main parties
Indeed it would be embarrassing if you became known as the ‘toenails’ party….
OT Has anyone seen the Hurt Locker movie?
Saw a review earlier today and it sounded graphic but vg.
Very significant day politically. It might come to be known as a turning point…..
The BBC has been leading its political coverage with Clegg agreeing with Labour that Cameron’s plans for tax breaks for marrieds is barking mad (or words to that effect).
I had that long forgotten but delightful sensation of the Tories being cornered as right wing reactionaries by the forces of progress.
436. That sounds dangerously like another legendary prediction from you, Roger, the Cassandra of the Cote d’Azur.
415. I would have thought most New Labour people would be thrilled that someone independent-minded and genuinely interested in justice like Lord Denning would now be unable to enter the legal profession.
435. Hurt Locker. You spend a lot of time in the helmet of a bomb disposal man. Quite good but claustrophobic and at times excruciating. Interestingly directed by a woman and it shows in odd ways.
There is nothing progressive about being anti-family, Roger.
Wot you mean “right-wing reactionaries by the forces of progress” = everyone who won’t vote Gordon = Five More Years
427: “New fathers will get lessons in parenting to ensure they get involved in their children’s upbringing under Governments plans to be published this week.”
Its called marriage.
TimB if you’re out there. Uh oh!
438. Well, indeed.
441 Wash your mouth out with soap - we all know that a HMG leaflet will make errant boyfriends become loving and committed, loving fathers irrespective of any legal obligation or knowing the mother’s name.
439 Thanks Roger - will watch through my fingers - any recommendations?
I do wonder what the Government is going to do if fathers refuse to undertake this parenting nonsense. Take their babies away perhaps or stop them from seeing their child?
Or is it another of these schemes that will be reannounced a dozen times whilst the department in question advises the Minister why it can’t be done and why no one has taken it up……
436 - *cough* hard as it is to go against your views Roger with your record as a man of the people
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/election-2010/7005840/Marriage-is-good-for-us–its-time-to-support-it.html
” marriage is the territory Labour has chosen to fight on, the Conservatives should welcome it – because they would be so clearly in the right”
“Even Mr Balls recognises that “marriage is the most important institution for making sure we have strong and stable families”. The statistical evidence is overwhelming”
Mind you Clegg’s response was pretty moronic:
Nick Clegg, the Liberal Democrat leader said that the best way to make sure fathers are involved in their children’s lives is to give them more time off work after birth.
The Lib Dems say mothers and fathers should be able to share 19 months of parental leave after birth.
“Recently when our third son was born I was only entitled to two weeks off when he was barely aware of my existence,” Mr Clegg said.
Can you imagine Cleggy turning round in the next few years and saying. ‘Right thats it I’m going to take 9 months paternity leave, stop being party leader, put someone else in their temporarily and then return as if nothing’s changed when its finished…
Yeah right that’ll work……
447 Or those who leave school and can’t read?
This article is dated 2009
“The number of 11-year-olds passing Sats in English has fallen for the first time since the exam was introduced in 1995, the Department for Children admitted today.
An estimated 115,000 children, one in five, left primary school last month two years behind their classmates, unable to read and write to the required standard…”
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/article-23727581-primary-schools-in-crisis-as-one-in-five-cannot-read.do
Double standards row as Ed Balls refuses to ban smacking at mosque schools to avoid ‘upsetting Muslim sensitivities’
Either way right or wrong which ever way you want to look at it if you are born or if you wish to reside in this country you follow the laws of that country and the law MUST apply equally to all.
Labour really are the hypocrites of hypocrites by doing this though it does not surprise me in the slightest. This after all is only an ongoing part of the previously reported ‘cozy up’ for their votes at the next GE.
As for Balls? my views on him are totally unprintable on a political website.
I know this is Ambrose, but …..
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/7012297/ECB-prepares-legal-ground-for-euro-rupture-as-Greek-crisis-escalates.html
“Fears of a euro break-up have reached the point where the European Central Bank feels compelled to issue a legal analysis of what would happen if a country tried to leave monetary union.”
“This euro-brinkmanship must be unnerving for the Hellenic Socialists (PASOK). Last week’s €1.6bn (£1.4bn) auction of Greek debt did not go well. The interest rate on six-month notes rose to 1.38pc, compared to 0.59pc a month ago. The yield on 10-year bonds has touched 6pc, the spreads ballooning to 270 basis points above German Bunds.
Greece cannot afford such a premium for long. The country must raise €54bn this year – front-loaded in the first half. Unless the spreads fall sharply, the deficit cannot be cut from 12.7pc of GDP to 3pc of GDP within three years. As Moody’s put it, Greece (and Portugal) faces the risk of “slow death” from rising interest costs.”
12.7% deficit ,wow, glad we have Prudence in charge or things might have been bad for us too
OT Glaciers in Wales and AGW - meh, cobblers
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/01/17/glaciers-in-wales/
453. “Recently when our third son was born I was only entitled to two weeks off when he was barely aware of my existence,” Mr Clegg said.”
Poor Cleggy. Not even a household name in his own household.
446. You wont need to. You spend most of the film watching through a slit anyway!
“Richard North has done some incredibly deep digging”
Him and Booker are like the anti Woodward & Bernstein. They won’t be in any films because they’re on the “wrong” side but very good detectiving imo.
449. jsfl - I guess you are not into family friendly policies in terms of employment arrangements. Very shortsighted.
456 floater Not sure that’s a
More like a 
BBC Scotland - Cash-strapped Trust ‘could merge’
“The National Trust for Scotland could help resolve its financial problems by merging with the trust in England, said the man tasked with reviewing the body.
George Reid did not endorse the move, but he said action was needed to address issues at the trust, which was “over-governed and under-directed”.”
I don’t think there’s anything racist about someone arguing that they don’t want to live in a multicultural society, as some people seem to allegedly be implying Nigel Farage may be for saying something like that.
British people should be able to choose how many people come into the country. Leftists always say that because we colonised other countries, people from those countries should be able to come to Britain even if British people don’t want them to come.
The problem with saying that is that it contradicts the opposition that leftists usually invoke towards the “two wrongs don’t make a right” argument. For example on capital punishment leftists are against the death penalty precisely because of that “two wrongs…” argument. But suddenly on immigration they DO say that two wrongs make a right. = contradiction.
458 Indeed Poor Cleggy - his life is so hard and he is so detached from his children. I can just see him coming home of a night and finding out that his kids have started calling the postman or the milkman ‘Daddy’.
re 457 well anyone going to Snowdonia will find plenty of evidence that there were glaciers there, and what’s more man-made climate change had nothing to do with it either.
435 Park Town Boy
The assumption of the Con/Lab duopoly that other parties are solely interested in which one of them is in a position to abuse power betrays a rather narcissistic arrogance.
464 Nor would I regard it as racist.
However, I disagree with banning people from wearing burkas (daft as the garb is) except in security-sensitive situations.
I don’t object to Islamic schools using corporal punishment, either, but I do consider that should be an option available for all schools.
465 The NOTW would delighted
452. As so often Floater you miss the point. No mainstream politician is likely to say they don’t think marriage is a good thing. But that’s a far cry from trying to bribe those who choose not to or are unable to.
It’s just so Tory. Section 28 all over again. Full of prejudice against those who don’t share Tory family values.
(PS Are you ‘Floater’ as in float between the Tories and UKIP)
I visited my 92 year old grandmother this afternoon. For the first time ever I noticed that she was watching Sky News. “Why aren’t you watching the BBC?” I asked. “They are too pro-Labour,” Grandma replied. “But you are a life-long Labour supporter!” I said. “I know, but I would rather make up my own mind than be fed propaganda”, she answered. So even Labour supporters are beginning to realize the BBC is biased now. Priceless!
AndrewG / jsfl. I assume that you two jokers don;t have kids or if you do you delegate relevant rearing tasks to your better halves. I guess that Clegg was articulating the frustration of grown up male adults who have children who choose to take their responsibilities seriously.
You are all soooooooooooooooo yesterday.. NEW THREAD
470 I’ve never actually considered that allowing people to retain a bit more of their own money is a “bribe”.
More than anything, that really does sum up the difference between the right wing and the left wing World outlook. For the latter, it’s the State’s money, and cutting a particular tax is the same as handing out a grant.
461. Frank (why do they always have single christian names?). What is your point? How is it shortsighted? It’s all very well popping up and making vague sneers but clearly you haven’t got anything substantive to say so until you have don’t bother.
Personally, I would welcome Clegg taking 9 months off or even job-sharing for a longer period just to delight in the spectacle of the utter chaos it would cause within the Libdems.
New thread - PB predictions for 2010
Mandarins attack ‘barmy’ Downing Street
Gordon Brown’s Government “lacks a coherent strategy” and produces “barmy” ideas, senior civil servants have said.
One condemned Mr Brown’s offices, saying:
“What comes out of No 10 is lots of barmy ideas. It’s the worst possible kind of policy-making, which is ‘here is a problem, let’s have a knee-jerk reaction to it tomorrow on what we’re going to announce’ and quite frankly the less contact with No 10 the better.”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/7011206/Mandarins-attack-barmy-Downing-Street.html
I’m wondering if this so called ‘government’ can even now make it as far as March anymore let alone May or June? The whole tragic scenario is falling apart at the seams now in front of our very eyes, there is open rebellion and his own people attempt a coup to remove Brown from power. This is no longer just embarrassing it is now absolutely tragic for this country and its future as a whole.
During his time as PM, Mr Blair seems to have been thwarted at every possible turn by his chancellor Mr Brown. Someday, someone’s PhD thesis may shed light on how different Mr Blair’s premiership could have been.