Is this when Brown’s “masterful strategy” was blown?
January 23rd, 2010Has Peter Oborne got it right on the Iraq inquiry?
There’s an excellent piece by Peter Oborne in the Mail today about how Brown’s Iraq inquiry strategy is falling apart.
Describing the original plan as “masterful” Oborne” writes:“.. On the one hand he gained the credit for ordering Sir John Chilcot’s inquiry into the invasion, thus honouring one of the promises he made during his Labour leadership campaign in 2007. On the other hand he had cleverly arranged that he himself wouldn’t appear as a witness until after polling day. But then Brown made a spectacular error.
Under adroit questioning in the Commons from the LibDem leader Nick Clegg, he said he would be happy to give testimony to the inquiry at any time. Sir John Chilcot had said he would not call Brown ahead of the election in order to avoid the hearings becoming caught up in party politics. But now, to his credit, he has called Brown’s bluff.
It is hard to state too strongly what a calamity this development is for the Prime Minister. He will now be forced to reveal his true role at a public hearing within the next few weeks - just at a time when he is preparing to face voters at his first General Election as Labour leader.
At the very best, this appearance before the inquiry will come as a massive distraction and something that his team of advisers is already viewing with dismay. At worst, Gordon Brown’s evidence will bring the very divisive issue back into the public arena and could inflict grave damage on Labour’s election hopes….”
Just looking back at the clip I don’t think that Brown appreciated the elephant trap he was just about to fall into. He was too eager to put Clegg down rather than thinking through the implications of what he was saying. He ought to have stuck with backing the Chilcott line on his appearance should be put back rather than leaving it open as he did.
Mike Smithson
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Yes.
1st
Poor Brown. Outwitted by Nick Clegg.
3rd
Brown is absolutely right on this and Nick Clegg frothing about an “illegal war” won’t change that.
OK so I can’t count
Cleggs party will win a few Labour held seats on the back of this.
FPT - 340 - Over here the president is seen as the head of state, as well as a politican. It’s a complex relationship with the American people.
A 45% personal rating for him as president (at this point in his term) is really bad. It’s not the same as Brown getting 45% on whether people think he’s doing a good or average job being PM.
He has always run ahead of his policies, which overall have not been at all popular, but the signs are now unmistakeable that unless he does something soon, listens to the mood of the country, and cuts back on more spending and bigger, more intrusive government, (which in US terms is about as left wing as it gets), the damage to his party in November (and possibly both him and his party in 2012) could be severe (although not to the depth of the electoral abyss into which Labour are gazing).
Fabulous to see Brown taking careful aim at Clegg … and blowing his own foot off! Maybe now the public will finally see just how culpable Brown was in 2003.
OT Interesting piece in Washington Post about GOP and the internet
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/01/22/AR2010012202286.html
‘Masterful’ and Brown just don’t go together. To be so easily tripped up by an ineffectual opponent like Clegg suggests political ineptitude of a high order.
7, depends how the inquiry goes.
I rather think Oborne is over-estimating the impact that will happen. The inquiry has so far shown itself to possess all the probing intelligence and dogged determination of George from Rainbow. It’s possibly Brown will drop a clanger or get rather angry, but I think it a remote rather than likely possibility.
5 You are Lilly Allen and I claim my 5 tax credits.
This is what I said on the matter yesterday:
“Iraq, the most ill-judged piece of foreign adventurism since Suez; and on on our TV bulletins, night after night of Labour people - all Labour people - squirming and disembling and being less than convincing about how they bounced us into war.
All as part of the backdrop to an election campaign. Just disastrous for Labour.”
by Marquee Mark January 22nd, 2010 at 11:16 am
Labourlist is comparing the genius of Gordon Brown with the ‘tory tyros’: - even got some good class warfare stuff, wich seems to be obligatory these days.
Tory Tyros are no match for Labour’s heavyweights on the economy
http://www.labourlist.org/differences-policy-appraoch-labour-conservative-economy?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+LabourListLatestPosts+%28The+Labour+List%3A+Latest+Posts%29
Gordon Brown is a useless Pot belly bully boy!
That Nick Clegg managed to get Brown to walk into this does give Clegg some Credit but I think Clegg and the Lib Dems are fighting the Last War. I dont mean just because we seem to have wound down our Iraq deployment but Afghanistan is the area where troops are being sent back in body bags. It is good Clegg has effectively got Brown to testify but the only way to truely get Brown/Blair et al nailed for this is by a change of government.
Clegg may well have have done a ‘Brown’ in going for short term political gain when the long term interest is nailing them for their dishonesty on the issue. Brown will simply shirk any bad points as being partisan - If it had been done after the election he would not have had the protection of high office. So dont pat yourselves on the back Clegg and Lib Dems - The election campaign is unlikely to feature much “Iraq” (Think Ming Capbell saying that lol)and they may well have gifted Brown and Co. a free pass.
Judging by Chilcot’s “comfy chair” inquisitions, so far, I don’t think Brown has much to fear. And voters who are (still) so exercised by Iraq they might change their vote, will have already changed.
The only downside for Labour is they lose a few news cycles, and it *reminds* people of Iraq.
I expect it will therefore reinforce the desire of Labour-haters to kick out the government. But it’s not a game changer. Partly because they have already lost the game.
Watching that clip reminds me of just how difficult it is to actually listen to what Brown is saying. His mannerisms and hectoring, I was right tone just make me want to switch him off. When he actually appears it will be a brave man that can sit through hours of that.
Hopefully the people who are paid to do so will provide the rest of us mere mortals with a decent precis of it.
12. “The inquiry has so far shown itself to possess all the probing intelligence and dogged determination of George from Rainbow.”
It’s striking than whenever you see a snippet on the news of a rare searching question being asked, it’s always Sir Roderic Lyne. It’s a pity he’s not conducting the inquiry single-handed.
16. Yes Sean I agree - but if you are already five-nil down why on earth do you gleefully belt the ball into your own net for a sixth?
Indirectly. It was the follow-up letter that did it.
12 I agree - if this was Tony he’d sail away from it, I can’t see Mr Tractor Stats coming out of this at all well even if he doesn’t resort to lies.
His TV persona just so awful - he gets all shirty and hectoring on Marr FFS. And if nothing else it ties him to the mast of Iraq which he’s managed to pretend was nothing to do with him [bit like gay rights legislation].
I’ll be glued to it.
19 - Yes, I’ve noticed that too. He is by far the best of them.
“The only downside for Labour is they lose a few news cycles, ”
Big downside when you are in Labour’s position.
Brown’s appearance won’t have a huge effect; people have made up their mind about this topic already.
An alternative view
The Iraq inquiry has rebounded on Brown, but he has little to fear
…
Mr Brown would certainly not have started from here. Yet it might not be as bad as it looks. British elections are normally dominated by domestic events; Iraq in 2005 was an exception to the rule. This year, it’s the economy, stupid – which, for all his faults, remains Mr Brown’s strongest suit and best hope, as the end of the recession is formally announced next Tuesday.
http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/andrew-grice/andrew-grice-the-iraq-inquiry-has-rebounded-on-brown-but-he-has-little-to-fear-1876394.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/defence/7061310/Ministry-of-Defence-not-fit-for-purpose-claims-former-Lib-Dem-leader-Lord-Ashdown.html
“The Ministry of Defence is “not fit for purpose” and has been in steady decline for five years, the former Liberal Democrat leader Lord Ashdown said on Saturday.”
“Lord Ashdown’s comments follow a string of high level criticisms of the MoD about procurement and management failures.
A recent internal report into failures by Bernard Gray, a former defence special adviser, concluded that the British military operation in Afghanistan was being compromised by an “incompetent” equipment buying programme that was £35 billion over budget and five years behind schedule.”
Hmm. Alonso bac to being marginal favourite, Schumacher still slowly drifting down, now at 5.4.
Damned shame Red Bull won’t be at the first test.
24 Unless he says something stupid or contradicts earlier evidence.
That’s the killer for him - everyone else will have had their say - it’s a man-trap for him attempting to dance between what had already been said.
Even if his own testimony is okayish - the media do love a split/inconsistency.
O/T
Does anyone have any long shot tips on the Football World Cup - I believe Ghana’s been mentioned - any others ?
F1
I think there’s only one other person here interested in F1, but for the record i’ve gone for Button at 10/1 and Schmachar at 4.7/1
OT SF look to be returning to the negotiating table with the DUP for another go at devolving policing & justice, complete with the threat of withdrawal if there isnt a suitable result very quickly. Despite the talk for a couple of months at least now that they will collapse the Assembly they still cant quite quit.
This is a move designed to get ready for the blame game but also a potential sign that SF have left themselves little room despite apparently having much to gain from a new Assembly election, they could well be dependent on London & Dublin to really lean on the DUP.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/7055406/Ed-Balls-my-struggle-to-overcome-stammer.html
Ed Balls has never had a stammer during his adult life and even his school friends cannot recall him having one
Mike, another point yet to be raised, Brown’s interference this week totally undermines the independence of the Chilcott inquiry. Yet again, his own short term political engineering has left us watching the spectacle of him moving the goal posts to suit himself yet again. He couldn’t apparently be called before the GE because this inquiry didn’t want to be seen to be getting involved with party politics. And now, he will be called because he has indicated that it now suits him to make an appearance before the GE now for purely political reasons. Neither of those two positions were ever about ‘party politics’, they were about what was deemed the best option to protect one Gordon Brown’s political career.
Neither Straw or Hoon were afforded this luxury, but now apparently we will have Brown, Milliband and Alexander appearing? Having got himself into a complete mess over the timing of the GE and this inquiry sitting. We are left watching Brown try and use it yet again to extricated himself from one poor position only to move into an even worse position. What are the chances that he will ever appear at this inquiry as PM before the GE? And if he can move the goal posts once, he will continue to dither until he has to do so again. Lots of briefing in the media about what he will say to the questions he would like to be asked, but will we get to see him actually answer the questions he doesn’t want hear any time soon?
I notice that the faces of Gordon’s front bench colleagues are like waxworks of impassivity.
I think that demonstrates what they think of his reply to this one - oh dear.
Gordon Brown’s problem has always been that he views himself as a master tactician. Given his background in the Scottish Labour Party, that is easy to understand.
With the exception of Robin Cook, John Smith and Donald Dewar, both much lamented, the average parliamentarian in the Scottish Labour Party is required to have no working brain cells. That is why Tom Harris is so unpopular, possessing more working brain cells than the rest combined. The Scottish Labour Party has traditionally excluded clever people in case they wanted to think for themselves.
Since 1982 Gordon Brown has run the Scottish Labour Party like a private political force and anyone (excluding Dewar and Cook and of course the late John Smith) opposing him found themselves smeared or sidelined very quickly. Surrounded by “yes men” Brown convinced himself that only he knew better than anyone about anything.
Now he finds he cannot manipulate the media or outside world but sadly I do not think he realises it. Brown still thinks he is leading Labour to a resounding victory and a trifle like the Iraq Inquiry offers no threat to his “I saved the world” agenda.
28 Plato, IMHO it doesn’t matter to Mr Brown what other people have said. He just sticks to his version of events. It isn’t as though he will be trying to maintain a party line, is it?
30 - Everybody assumes that he will answer all questions in public. Listen to what he says in the clip at the top of the thread - evidence was withheld from Chilcott on national security grounds. Guess who decides that? Certainly not Chilcott.
In addition, Brown could ask for certain sensitive info to be given to the inquiry in camera.
This is a setup.
One other observation about the Chilcott inquiry. It has now linked Brown to the inner circle who decided on our Iraq policy in a way that no one has before, its also bringing in yet more of the current Labour Cabinet in to the spot light too, and right before the GE. But the inquiry has also had the opposite effect of disconnecting the current Conservative leadership and their party from the decision altogether. Gordon Brown never had a political antennae to speak of, but leaving the GE to run along side this inquiry has got to rank up there with some of his other appalling political judgements.
Gordon Brown will face awkward questions as a result of some of the revelations this week. The most senior official at the Treasury admitted cuts imposed in 2003 may have led to a shortage of helicopters in Afghanistan today. The claim was confirmed yesterday by Sir Nicholas Macpherson, permanent secretary at the Treasury. He admitted that the Ministry of Defence had not been able to “spend as much as it would have liked” after it was penalised for exploiting changes in accounting rules.
IF people think he is guilty of this he is dead.
Not much of a ‘strategy’ if it can be unpicked by Clegg.? How this all pans out though is entirely up to Gordon Brown and his performance, the damage has already been done wrt raising again the spectre of an illegal war.
Fortunately there’s no GE this year, so perhaps the clunking fist could escape the worst of it.
34.”This is a setup.”
Tim B, I have been saying this since Wednesday. Something stinks, and I don’t think our political lobby are any better than this government right now. They are just reacting to what they are fed by Brown and his team right now, but they are certainly not digging and finding the wider picture and implications.
Perhaps Brown actually wants to give evidence to Chilcot Inquiry before the General Election? Perhaps he has something gamechanging up his sleeve? Perhaps he will reveal that he privately criticised Blair for supporting the Iraq war without a 2nd UN resolution and threatened to resign as Chancellor?
Unlikely I know. But ….
Iraq will have zero net impact from here until the election but might decrease volatility - unless there is a spectacular car-crash by either Blair or Brown at Chilcot.
Everyone figured out what they thought of Iraq a very long time ago.
That said, Brown is stupid. He needs poll volatility badly.
This was a mistake of his own making, all due to his dithering and scheming.
32. “That is why Tom Harris is so unpopular, possessing more working brain cells than the rest combined.”
I can think of a number of reasons why Tom Harris is unpopular, and his intelligence is fairly low down on that list.
30 Christina, just sending you an email.
Heff is unhappy
“Politicians such as Jack Straw abandoned principles long ago”
“Mr Straw has no shred of principle whatsoever. This makes him a suitable member of a Government, none of whose other members appear to have any either. Other than a couple of years as a junior barrister, Mr Straw has never had a proper job – a notorious student union agitator, he was a special adviser before entering Parliament. With that cast of mind, you never resign, because principles are never the point: it is all about ambition. Why are we in such a mess? That’s why.”
“Don’t be surprised that unemployment has fallen: if you were massaging the real figures as assiduously as the Government is, you’d bring it down, too.”
29 Yokel, do they reckon the SF abuse cases are irrelevant then? I’d have expected all parties would want that cleared up before reaching a deal on devolving policing & justice.
Hard for an on-looker to see how they can get much leverage with those cases still extant.
For anyone who thinks easterross is simply making a partisan ant-Labour post - he is spot on with that analysis of Scottish Labour.
I was a member for a while, and can confirm his analysis..
As to Tom Harris, his intelligence is, in no small measure, due to Mrs Nat having taught him!
314 FPT- TimT, very interesting post about how the Democratic mindset may prevent them from averting their own doom in November. Only Obama can take the lead in changing this mentality, so we all will be watching him very closely over the next few weeks to look for any signs of emergence from denial. His State of the Union speech next week will be the obvious next place to look.
The best hope for them comes from their most recent disaster: the Massachusetts election. Now that they don’t have a filibuster-proof majority anymore, this is a golden opportunity for them to face the reality of their situation and opt for a more pragmatic course from here forward. If they do that, they may regain some of the trust they’ve wasted during the last year.
But if healthcare reform is indeed dead for all practical purposes, it seems to me that Specter’s party switch giving them 60 Senate seats is the worst thing that could have happened to them. A classic Pyrrhic victory. Here’s my view of an alternate universe where Specter never switched parties:
1) The Dems, having only 59 Senate votes, realize that they will have to make a deal with one or more Republican senators to get a healthcare bill passed;
2) Obama and the Dems give up on their greatest liberal healthcare dreams (which their base reluctantly accepts since they just don’t have the votes), taking the half-a-loaf they can get in a bipartisan deal with Snowe plus maybe Specter and Collins;
3) The whole process is wrapped up in September or October, leading to a grand signing ceremony on the White House lawn on a crisp autumn day with a bipartisan group of senators and House members standing behind the President;
4) The public, while closely divided, generally approves of the modest bipartisan deal that was wrapped up so quickly, giving the Democrats time to move on to other issues well before the 2010 elections;
5) With no healthcare debacle to contend with (indeed, with a healthcare policy triumph to brag about), Obama and the Dems have a peaceful Christmas break, profit from still-reasonable approval ratings, and easily win an election for Ted Kennedy’s old senate seat in Massachusetts.
So either in the alternate universe or in our universe, the Dems today have 59 Senate seats. The only difference is, well, everything else.
In fact, Nick Clegg is far more effective than Mr Cameron in getting compromising answers out of the Prime Minister. Cameron just goes in for bluster and sound bites.
This probably because Labour are like the Tories: they both under-rate Clegg. I think his qualities will be increasingly recognised by the general public during the election campaign: which is why I am an optimist about the number of Lib Dem seats after the election.
This is a post with betting implications.
43 - ooops
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/simonheffer/7055721/Politicians-such-as-Jack-Straw-abandoned-principles-long-ago.html
39. stjohn “Perhaps he will reveal that he privately criticised Blair for supporting the Iraq war without a 2nd UN resolution and threatened to resign as Chancellor?”
That’s the card Jack Straw played. Net result; Straw put career before country. That will not help Gordo.
36 - It will make no difference. Most people have made up their mind about whether to vote for or against Brown and Labour.
This is just ‘more of the same’: another piece of evidence about bad decisions he’s taken, and mistakes he’s made.
It doesn’t tell people anything new. Each of the ‘Brown epic fail’ events may change a few minds one way or the other, but at this point the vast majority have made up their minds and subsequent revelations merely confirm their view.
This is not to say that the whole helicopters / going to war on the dodgy dossier / underfunding the miltary mess is not a terrible indictment of incompetence - it is - but that it tells us nothing new or different about Brown.
44. Maybe. maybe not. Do not underestimate the roboticism of a large section of the republican vote.
We’ll see if the media have more stories in the morning.
Anyone who put a bett on the Premiership’s top scorer by the end of the season… Rooney has just scored 3 goals in 10 minutes - 4 in all.
51 - “We’ll see if the media have more stories in the morning.”
That reminds me, will the Mail have more extracts from that book by that Labour party functionary tomorrow?
39.stjohn, lots of hype about Browns recent PMQ performances, talk of a renewed vigour and confidence too. He has announced that he will go in front of the Chilcott inquiry before the GE, and he finally agreed to the leadership debates too. Both these decisions have closed down two themes that risked brewing into full blown disasters for him, feeding into the usual meme of his dithering and political cowardice.
I think that he quite capable of working behind the scenes to make sure that he appears at neither the Chilcott inquiry or the leadership debates before a GE. And the current team propping him up are just as likely to want to improve his PR operation while having no intention of letting him loose at either venue too.
42.Easterross, thanks, will go look.
38 - yes, it is a setup. It’s Brown being clever, with another ‘wizard wheeze’ to add to the list.
It will collapse in a heap like all the others: initially it will look succesful and clever, but by 72 hours later in the cold light of day it will be seen, like all the other brilliant Brown moves, to have been a cheap calculation for short term political advantage, in an effort to defuse this as a campaign issue.
It will fail.
49. Scott P. True enough.
I just wonder if Brown has something up his sleeve.
Do we know which company has produced the poll for this evening and when it’ll be published?
The new confident Gordon Brown at Prime Minister’s Questions has launched class war, looked uncaring about job losses at Cadbury’s and been trapped into appearing before the Chilcott Inquiry before the general election. Proof positive, I’d say, that confidence is not the same thing as success.
About THAT poster….
http://brackenworld.blogspot.com/2010/01/everyone-else-is-doing-it.html
Make sure to read the small print on the bottom right
gordon is a …….. answers on a postcard please!!!
58 For those interested in how “class” affects life today, there’s quite an amusing article in the Telegraph.
In a snippet about polling, the article also makes a point I’ve long been convinced about:
“All the parties have access to extensive private polling that is telling them where to concentrate their energies,” says Professor Danny Glover, professor of human geography at the University of Sheffield.
“The key thing good pollsters know is that most people don’t care about most things, most of the time. But middle class people are more likely to vote than Labour’s traditional core, the working class, and they also tend to live in marginal seats, so mobilising them is very important.”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/7053761/Were-all-middle-class-now-darling.html
56
He may well have.. but will it be the truth?
58.antifrank, went back and had another look at Brown’s whole demeanour at PMQ’s this week, and it was very revealing. And I agree that confidence is not the same thing as success. I put part of his current behaviour/confidence down to the fact that he is back on familiar ground when it comes to the tactics being deployed to attack and undermine his opponents. This is simple the old Gordon Brown we saw as Chancellor, and the old team are back trying to rebuild the old myths at the last minute. We are seeing them try to pull the curtain down again on the last two years of his premiership.
48
Libdem in the Money
http://www.ryeandbattleobserver.co.uk/eastbourne-news/ExTory-MP-will-back-Lib.6005516.jp
FPT 323 SeanT Sorry, head to step out.
As always when you put your mind to being serious, your comments are erudite and challenging. My point is that Britain, Germany and the US clearly had very solid technological and scientific bases as upcoming superpowers, as does China currently. But they also attracted top talent (stole it?) from the rest of the advanced world to work in their centres of learning, research and industry, and it was that indigenous capability coupled with their power to attract talent that enabled them to become world centres of excellence and hence top economic and technological dog. China has a lot going for it in this direction. I just don’t believe it has all the pieces yet. Legal, institutional and social change are still needed. Doesn’t mean to say it will not come, just that it’s not there yet.
59
Bungelow Bull cares about Cadbury’s jobs.
AN Eton-educated Tory MP has come under fire for describing Cadbury workers as whingers.
Bill Wiggin’s remarks provoked an angry reply from the Unite union.
National officer Jennie Formby said: “He is a disgrace and has done Cadbury workers a great disservice. Voters will remember when this MP turned his back on Cadbury workers in their hour of need. They face an uncertain future and are campaigning to protect their jobs.
“It’s not whinging. It’s standing up for their livelihoods, homes and their families.”
The MP’s Leominster constituency includes a Cadbury factory. He told the BBC: “I have seen the trade unions talking down this company and I worry that by sending out such negative signals it puts people’s jobs more at risk because who wants to hire a whinging workforce when you could hire a really positive upbeat one?”
The former banker’s comments come as 5,600 Cadbury workers feel threatened by Kraft’s takeover bid.
‘Jolly fine boating weather’
66 coldstone - “They face an uncertain future and are campaigning to protect their jobs.”
But I thought Gordon Brown had given Kraft a good talking too and so it wasn’t an issue?
I’m sure we can all agree that Parliament would be a better place without Nigel Waterson.
Wiggin = LOL
67
The free market is the free market, if you believe in it, (I’m sure you do) you accept its consequences.
Of course us crusty ol’ lefties are free to whinge, you are not!
66 “I have seen the trade unions talking down this company and I worry that by sending out such negative signals it puts people’s jobs more at risk because who wants to hire a whingeing workforce when you could hire a really positive upbeat one?”
And just what is wrong with that message?
Makes perfect sense.
69 This free marketeer has no objection to Kraft purchasing Cadbury’s.
One multi-national corporation purchased another.
59 Floater, when the history of this GE is written in a few years time, I shall be fascinated to learn how this poster may have influenced events.
Not the poster itself as originally intended, rather it has become sort of visual catch-phrase. And as far as I can tell, people (left and right) are laughing at the posters, not at Mr Cameron.
IMHO it has a social significance that I don’t yet understand.
71. “One multi-national corporation purchased another”
Agreed. And if the Cadbury family descendants felt so strongly about the company’s heritage just why did they sell out and go public years ago?
70
The chief executive of Cadbury will receive a bumper £12million payout if he leaves the company as part of Kraft’s £11.9billion takeover of the iconic British Chocolate-maker.
Todd Stitzer, 57, will receive a year’s salary of £985,000, a bonus worth almost £2million and the right to cash in shares worth £8.6million if he walks away. He also owns a personal stake in the company worth around £5.5million.
His likely payoff contrasts sharply with the fear and uncertainty felt by the firm’s 5,700 workers in the UK and Ireland, with unions raising fears of a bloodbath as the US food giant looks to cut running costs.
It is expected that Mr Stitzer will be forced to leave Cadbury when Kraft’s boss Irene Rosenfeld takes over.
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1244330/Cadburys-boss-set-collect-12million-pay-unions-fear-jobs-bloodbath-Kraft-takeover.html#ixzz0dSTFkE3O
When people are frightened of losing their jobs, I think they can be entitled to the odd whinge. Mr Wiggins I should imagine has never had the, ‘job’ problem.
40 - stjohn. “Perhaps he will reveal that he privately criticised Blair for supporting the Iraq war without a 2nd UN resolution and threatened to resign as Chancellor?”
But won’t that lead Brown into a dead-end:
Brown: “I put my concerns directly to the Prime Minister”
Enquiry: “And what did you say?”
Brown: “I told him that if he lead the country into the Iraq War without a resolution authorising force from the UN, I would consider my position.”
Enquiry: “But there was no second resolution. Did you then consider you position?”
Brown: “I did.”
Enquiry: “And what did you conclude?”
Brown: “I concluded that I should stay.”
“He was too eager to put Clegg down rather than thinking through the implications of what he was saying. He ought to have stuck with backing the Chilcott line on his appearance should be put back rather than leaving it open as he did.”
There could be another reason that Brown then moved very quickly over the next two days to keep this story alive and kicking, able helped by a very well briefed media via Downing Street. George Osborne and his consistently taken view on the future of the banking sector, and the comparisons that were going to be drawn with the Obama announcement this week. This would have been very unwelcome news at both Brown central, and the Treasury, considering their own position on this. I think that Osborne is still public political enemy No1 with Gordon Brown and Ed Balls.
Mark Bathgate at the Coffee House Blog - Why Osborne is getting it right on banking
As we saw last night, the Labour spin machine have no qualms about emphasising certain news if it drowns out less helpful media attention. Come the weekend, the media will be full of stories about Brown and the Chilcott inquiry, and not so much about Obama’s direction on the US banking system or giving the Shadow Chancellor the oxygen of publicity on the economy. I remember the masterful strategy of portraying Brown as the global saviour of the banking system.
Short term politiking tactics at the expense of long term strategy based on sound policies. Gordon is also happy because Cameron is announcing those Conservative policies, and he is never happier than if he thinks he is knocking down or undermining his opponents.
That is where the delusion really kicks in these days.
Its like Glenrothes
Looked like trouble for brown, yet he actually did some electioneering, when he could have looked a complete numpty if labour lost
Then hey ho labour win and all the voter records go missing after a massive postal vote. brown of course knew the fix was in.
He won’t be going to Chilcot unless he’s already got a fix in place.
In the real world, he cannot cope with a Sian Willams interview, so how will he deal with a properly independent panel who actually have big brains?
Cowards like brown never expose themselves and as we know he never talks to real people or real voters and is kept in a bubbel of delusion by his advisers
74 90% of Cadbury’s workforce is located abroad. I expect they’ll bear the brunt of any job losses.
Has there been any tweets about tonights poll/s?
74 But Coldstone your PRime Minister and his Secretary of State for Everything both told the country including the Cadbury workers that all jobs would be safe having originally said they would not allow the takeover.
76. FPT, Polly Toynbee also agrees with George Osborne. I wonder if she is on telly any time soon.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/cifamerica/2010/jan/22/britain-obama-banks-money-bullies
79 just been looking round.. none that I can see.. but in the absence of Ave it..
Spurs missed a penalty=
Reading beat OGH’s team =
Meanwwhile Fulham are through 1-3= excellent!/
79. Gin
“Has there been any tweets about tonights poll/s?”
Calm down dear! .. You are going to worry yourself silly
The real risk for Labour in letting Brown go to the inquiry before the election is his own character.
If Blair follows Campbell and Hoon in painting Brown as part of the inner circle who took the decision to go to war but did not fund it properly then Brown’s main target at the enquiry will be to clear himself of blame.
And that means, as far as he is concerned, blaming someone else. His way of working as long as anyone can remember.
That would be unedifying and make plain, if that were needed, that the Mrs Rochester description was an accurate one.
Any such personal attacks, however coded, could end up as the first bloody fight in the Labour three cornered civil war: Blairites against Brownites versus the old guard in the unions.
80
As I believe the Monarch has accepted Gordon Brown as the nomination of the HofC to become her first minister, the term is ‘Our Prime Minister’ unless you are questioning Her Majesty, which I’m sure your not!
The Prime Minister is no more able to secure the jobs of Cadbury’s workers than I am. Politicians of all parties feel the need to say that sort of thing, I wish they wouldn’t, but the will.
78 Sean Fear. In your view do internal Party estimates usually go over negatively or overly optimistic in seat estimates? Mr Smithson thought the YouGov poll didn’t tally what he’d been expecting of your Party’s chances in Wales.
83. LOL! Says the PB troll that had a pre Xmas nervous breakdown because of one dodgy MORI!
URGH - just watched Newsnight - the dowsing rod bomb detector and Ed Balls make it an award winner for me.
I actually found myself moving away from the screen when he talked
http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b00q9hx6/Newsnight_22_01_2010/
65. Well, if you’re gonna flatter me, I might just have to agree with you. Erudite, oy vay!
Anyway yes, you are right. China’s lack of true democracy is, possibly, a hindrance to progress at some point in the future (I’m not entirely convinced by this). Certainly lack of proper patent and copyright law, applied throughout the country, would be calamitous for them, long term.
But I suspect they realise this which is why they are now cracking down.
http://arstechnica.com/media/news/2009/09/chinas-new-online-music-rules-a-headache-for-search-engines.ars
One thing they do have on their side is IQ. East Asians have higher *mathematical* IQs:
http://www.gnxp.com/blog/2006/07/numerical-processing-in-whites-and_17.php
However Europeans are better at talking then them, we have a higher verbal IQ: so even as the Chinese and East Asians use their cruel and fiendish scientific skills to enslave us like horse-whipped helots, we will be able to cleverly taunt them and make them feel weird.
86 As a general rule, I’d say they’re overly negative, when a party is on the up, and overly positive, when a party’s on the slide.
In the first case, you can’t quite believe how well things are going. In the second, you clutch at any straw.
65 & FPT. Yes, there’s always a lag as the baton passes on from one top nation to the next. The legacy of the outgoing one is felt for decades after it’s ceased to hold that position, unless it collapses in on itself. Institutions, markets and expecations are built around the assumptions of its former position and even if those assumptions are false, they can remain valid in practice even when not in theory simply because the majority of actors choose to believe them so.
The USA surpassed Britain’s economic output some time in the 1870s but Britain remained at the centre of international finance and trade through to at least 1918 and in some ways, to 1945 (though that last stretch was really because the US turned in on itself after WWI - Versailles had shown that Britain was ready to accept a new settlement). Where people and countries turn in a crisis is a matter of habit as much as of rationality.
The States’ dominance of the oceans and its willingness to project power, combined with its central role in international finance and its preeminant cultural position (language, film, music, ideals) will allow it to continue to punch above its natural weight - hence its position now as the sole superpower in what should already be a more multipolar world.
Still, just as the UK could never prevent a fully industrialised USA from overtaking it (unless the empire became a much more cohesive and self-identifying entity, or unless Britain had managed to break the US up in, say, 1862-3), so the US won’t be able to prevent China from ascending to top spot - although China might prevent herself from doing so.
Anyone listening to Andrew Roberts’ strong defence of the Iraq War policy on last night’s Any Questions’ will see that there are different sides to this issue. Brown may have been caught in an elephant trap but better that than having the elephant in the room over the election.
Furthermore am I the only person who thought Cameron’s cynical appropriation of the Doncaster court case to be the worse kind of false concern. It may not improve his chances of being elected.
coldstone you are a clot. For the Queen it is ‘our’ Prime Minister using the royal ‘we’.
For us, on the other hand, it is that useless prat who snuck into No10 when we didn’t vote for him.
89. Good points. I wasn’t all surprised by the Poll. Labour’s retreat in Wales is in danger of making the Grande Armee’s return from Moscow look like a masterpiece of logistics and planning.
65. Well, if you’re gonna flatter me, I might just have to agree with you. Erudite, oy vay!
Anyway yes, you are right. China’s lack of true democracy is, possibly, a hindrance to progress at some point in the future (I’m not entirely convinced by this). Certainly lack of proper patent and copyr1ght law, applied throughout the country, would be calamitous for them, long term.
But I suspect they realise this which is why they are now cracking down.
http://tinyurl.com/ox48hz
One thing they do have on their side is IQ. East Asians have higher *mathematical* IQs:
http://tinyurl.com/ylr3cty
However Europeans are better at talking then them, we have a higher verbal IQ: so even as the Chinese use their fiendish scientific skills to enslave us in some nightmarish Fu Manchu dystopia, we will be able to cleverly taunt them and make them feel a bit weird.
Plato - 88. It is a real shame we cannot send Ed Balls abroad to do ‘bomb detecting’…
“Furthermore am I the only person who thought Cameron’s cynical appropriation of the Doncaster court case to be the worse kind of false concern.”
I’m sure you probably are. Says a lot abot you.
30 Sorry for the late posting, but I worked closely with Ed Balls when he took over at DCSF. He has an unusual stammer brought on when reading out loud from text, but not in conversation.
81.ScottP, its this bit of Mark Bathgate’s article that really struck me. He summed better than I have seen anyone else do it in the blogsphere recently.
“Something is clearly - and massively - wrong here. The owners of capital keep losing, and the middle men keep winning. This is not the Anglo-Saxon capitalist model people felt they had signed up for. Above all else, the bank bailouts and subsequent bonus bonanza is fundamentally offensive to the US and UK culture that reward should be for success. The culture of entitlement that is being shown by parts of the banking sector here is reminiscent of 1970s trade unionism.
The totemic election result on Tuesday is a message to all politicians that enough is enough. Fundamental reform of the financial sector and promotion of shareholder interests is essential. When Thatcher and Reagan promoted much wider share ownership (a fundamentally good idea) they failed to see that politicians like Larry Summers and Gordon Brown (long very close to parts of the investment banking industry) would rig the market against the owners of capital. If the financial sector is to provide huge value to the economy, and to its shareholders, then it needs to return to its pre-1997 market and shareholder-orientated structure.
This is not a “populist” reaction from the electorate. It is a revolt of the shareholders – pension savers – who realise they have been getting shafted, and who have a perfect right to want things to be done differently.
It is to the credit of George Osborne that he was one of the first senior politicians to realise the importance of financial reform, and particularly returning to the principles of Glass-Steagall. Conservatives should own the issues of financial sector reform and shareholder rights. Thatcher created the first City Big Bang by recognizing the need to reform the vested interests and increase competition – the Cameron government should show the same determination and create Big Bang 2.”
92
lily…
“Furthermore am I the only person who thought Cameron’s cynical appropriation of the Doncaster court case to be the worse kind of false concern. It may not improve his chances of being elected”
apart from tim.. and left wing journos… yes.
Seant: “enslave us like horse-whipped helots”
That is one chapter dealt with then.
You are giving the plot away bit by bit. Or should I call it the order of gore?
93 I see Victoria St is paying overtime.
92 I don’t know that a China that had, say, Libya’s standard of living, would be regarded as top dog. Granted, it would have the World’s biggest economy, but would be way down the pecking order in terms of its standard of living.
What made the US top dog in the Twenties was not just the fact that it had the World’s biggest economy, (a status it had had for decades, but that it had the World’s highest standard of living.
Apparently its kicked off in Stoke today, with EDL clashing with the plod.
Hmmm,
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/5727068/labour-have-osborne-in-their-sights-and-on-their-fridges.thtml
NURSE, NURSE….
This is beyond laughable - new poster appears with this:
“Sorry for the late posting, but I worked closely with Ed Balls when he took over at DCSF. He has an unusual stammer brought on when reading out loud from text, but not in conversation.
by Harold Wilson January 23rd, 2010 at 6:03 pm
Oh, so Mr Balls has an intermittent speech impediment - bit like a valve TV?
Link for 104,
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/staffordshire/8476873.stm
103 See 95. WRT China I wonder whether the China-India rivalry will define the 21st Century the way the US-Soviet rivalry defined the 20th.
105. I dread to think what Tim’s fridge is like…
94
I think if you rake the time, (obviously you haven’t) to peruse the constitution, you might notuice that PM’s are not elected. The voter only votes for an MP. The PM is the nomination of the House of Commons the only provision being, that the monarch accepts that nomination, the monarch has, therefore Gordon Brown is the Prime Minister.
86 Coldstone in 2005 the country voted for the Labour party led by Tony “I intend to serve a full term in Parliament” Blair, not Gordon Brown. Other than the voters of Kirkcaldy, no-one has ever elected Gordon Brown to any position since 1983. John Major on the other hand won an election in 1990 to become the Tory party nominee for Prime Minister.
Gordon Brown is not my Prime Minister. I recognised Tony Blair as such but never Gordon Brown.
72 “IMHO it has a social significance that I don’t yet understand.”
Agree. My take is Cameron has the Blair thing which pulls people in but then, because that feeling reminds people of Blair, they push back against it, so there’s a pushme-pullyou effect that’s messing with people’s heads.
104 That is not good news. Stoke Central is probably the strongest BNP threat after Barking.
“cynical appropriation of the Doncaster court case”
This is the line from the bunker. Blinky assures us this was an isolated case, and the case review summary supports that view.
We know however that 7 children died while in the care of Doncaster social services.
So the question for Lilly, and tim, and Blinky, is how many cases would point to a systemic problem?
2, 20, 200?
Pretending there is no problem is cynical and heartless.
103. And it had just become the world’s largest creditor nation, I believe?
Exactly who are the English Defence League?
Manchester airport closed after white powder found in the luggage of an “Asian” man
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ukpress/article/ALeqM5jSUnbIiE6AtX58z0EmEoWSImvJog
113 If they won, I’d agree - but they are saying the unsayable that’s a good thing.
Labour have played the SHUT UP card to extremis - it’s made huge sections of society feel like racists, child molesters, selfish bastards and polar bear killers.
Oh and if you have nothing to hide you have nothing to fear - except putting the wrong sort of rubbish in your bin.
FFS.
BTW all my comments are being spam filtered and moderated, and appearing multiply or not at all.
WTF?? My apologies for the absurdity and repetition, but it’s not all my bad.
Nonetheless I shall take it as a nudge from the heavenly moderator, stop banging on about China, and go and watch House Season Six.
Ta-ra and kap-kap…
110. Actually, it’s the monarch who makes the appointment first and it’s for the HoC to prove that she’s wrong if they disagree.
111. But that’s like George III recognising Louis XVIII as head of state of France in 1808, say. It might be your opinion but it doesn’t change the facts on the ground.
105
That’s…rather disturbing……
111
Being leader of a political party and PM are not the same thing,(elected or not) the only requirement is the monarch accepts you as such, if you question Gordon Brown’s right to be PM, you question the right of the Monarch to choose his/her first minister.
Welcome to the Republic of Great Britain.
Standby for the next post from ‘Harold Wilson’ where he will assure us he used to be a dedicated Tory voter until he saw how the Tories made fun of poor Ed Balls and his affliction.
119. “But that’s like George III recognising Louis XVIII as head of state of France in 1808, say. It might be your opinion but it doesn’t change the facts on the ground.”
Although a country ruled by Easterross’ decree might be quite fun.
117 Icing? I hear ex-Christmas cake stock is great value
“Exactly who are the English Defence League?”
Bunch of football hooligans if I recall.
111
As a Tory, I’m of the opinion that Brown is as legitimate PM as any. There is no constitutional requirement for him to be elected by his party into that role, or to have faced the electorate as party leader before assuming the post.
david Herdson - You may be right about America, but I simply find the idea of American culture being the predominant global force for the rest of my life utterly depressing. Only Europe (in some form or another) can save us.
117.
Probably a packet of sherbot !
On topic - This is an incredible tactical blunder of gargantuan proportions by Brown.
Looking at the polling of the last few months, the Tory share’s been stable at about 39-42pc.
But Labour’s been jumping about a bit but when you look, the jumping about is as a result of the interplay between Labour & LibDem. When Labour goes up, the LibDems go down. They’re competing for teh same pool of anti-Tory voters.
Now, we know that the LibDems are getting squeezed-out and this is Labour’s best chance of increasing their share.
But what’s this? What’s the most important talismanic issue that galvanises the LibDem vote? Yes, it’s Iraq!
So let’s just look at what this means - just at the point that LibDem-leaning voters might be considering voting Labour to stop the Tories, Brown wholly unavoidably reminds them that he’s just as bad in their eyes by prostrating himself in front of Chilcott. Doh!
I mean, why would he do that? Getting LibDems to vote for Labour is about Brown’s best chance of salvaging something in April/May but he’s just closed-off that option. What an idiot.
Was that what was in Clegg’s mind when he asked the question or has he just got lucky?
126
Thank you, clear and simple.
unavoidably = avoidably. Doh!
Coldstone you are still a clot when you waffle, “The PM is the nomination of the House of Commons”.
HMQ is usually advised by the previous PM who should be his or her successor who can command the support of the House. Note that is not a majority through only his own party necessarily.
Where, as in the Heath situation in 1974, there is no party with a majority a consultation process is led by privy counsellors. In that particular case another leader, who also did not have a majority, was asked to form a government by HMG rather than the sitting PM Heath. Reason: he was most likely to command the support of the House and he did until the next election shortly afterwards.
In practice the House of Commons has a veto rather than an active choice.
You best go back and study the constitution again as you are straight F at the moment.
126 - “Brown is as legitimate…”. He may well be, but that doesn’t mean it is correct.
The fact is he bullied Blair out of office, knowing that he wouldn’t win a popular mandate. Only 2,490 hours until 7th May (or 104 days), and counting…
If the AQ audience is anything to go by, there’s more than a few people sickened by Camerons corpse chasing
31. Ed Balls has never had a stammer during his adult life and even his school friends cannot recall him having one
Actually I never had a stammer until I read about the £300,000 a year that Ed Balls and partner Yvette Cooper were pocketing in expenses.
Of course there’s the old cynics like me who think the purpose from America’s point of view of the ‘Special Relationship’ in 1941 was to weaken Britain so that the US could be the undisputed global financial power. The dollar has dominated ever since. The US runs up huge trade deficits and has little reason to worry. Not suprising they were a bit miffed when Saddam Hussein decided he would start selling oil in Euros. Though of course, lest we forget, America is not an ‘imperialist’ country.
131
I’m sure that process took place, are you saying GB isn’t the legitimate PM?
123 Andrew I would have Richie Rich executed because that is what his namesake’s perjury in 1535 helped do to my ancestor.
I would order Tim and Sean T to be locked in the same room for a year or until Tom Knox had knocked out a new bestseller dedicated to me (only ever had 1 book dedicated to me so far)
I would instruct the Attorney General to issue an arrest warrant for George Bush on War crimes charges and remand Tony Blair in custody pending his transfer to the Hague to face a war crimes trial
I would just order Gordon Brown and the cabinet to be locked in stocks, one outside each of London’s 20 odd major bus and train stations to enable people to take out their frustration and anger by pelting them with rotten eggs and tomatoes.
I would commission the production of Morris Dancer’s enormo haddock projectile machine and give him a warrant to start practising on all the people on his lists over the past couple of years.
I would appoint Coldstone as chief valet to the Bullingdon Club.
Mark Senior and Rod Crosby would be made to stand for election in the Dunny-on-the-Wold North and South parish council seats, respectively against John Loony.
133. Tim, what are you on about now?
POLL ALERT: Sunday Mirror/Comres
http://twitter.com/vincentmoss/status/8119374093
138
Spiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiin….
123/126 etc of course I know Brown is the legitimate PM of Britain, I just refuse to accept that he has found himself in that role due to any talent he might have.
Off topic, another super performance from Super Leeds.
137 I rather think Mr Rich was probably offered the choice perjury and get rich or we’ll execute you as well. I don’t doubt Thomas Cromwell was a hard man to say no to. Had Bishop Fisher followed the BishopGardiner route he could have done his cause a great more good probably.
139.Hope David Cameron holds firm on this policy.
133. ‘Cameron’s corpse chasing’
What’s all this about?
139. Last ComRes was 13 point Tory lead right? So could mean down to 8 or 9 points?
146
Usual ComRes volatility in other words.
Quick Wayne, get the valium ready.
Gordon Brown “masterful strategy”; come on that can’t be right.
133 And a positive Labour policy?
Cue - Plato is female, and an AGW wingnut, that isn’t in my league of betting [welching] but hasn’t read media reports about Jamie Bulger…and I’m a farming school governer with expertise on swine-flu preparations…
139 Fortunately you are a scottish tory, and only fit to receive the Nelson Muntz.
143
Well he won’t be alone in that one, not just PM’s are guilty of that!
O/T but interesting
http://www.hurryupharry.org/2010/01/23/anglican-vicar-uses-police-to-intimidate-blogger/
“As some people have noticed, I’ve been rather quiet in blogging about the Reverend Stephen Sizer’s activities of late.
After all, what more can be said of a man who forwards emails from Holocaust deniers, shares platforms with Holocaust deniers, and shamelessly flauntshis anti-Zionist theology before Iran’s apocalyptic Holocaust-denying regime?”
“At 10am on Sunday 29th November 2009, I received a visit from two policemen regarding my activities in running the Seismic Shock blog. (Does exposing a vicar’s associations with extremists make me a criminal?, I wondered initially).”
Something to keep an eye on Re. this supposed large drop in the Conservative lead in the ComRes/Sunday Mirror poll. As far as I can make out the last poll carried out for the Sunday Mirror was by ICM back in August 2009. That poll gave the Tories a 17% lead. Now, of course the Sunday Mirror shouldn’t be comparing this ComRes poll to that ICM poll and probably they aren’t, but knowing how some journo’s are prone to twisting polls to suit their own narrative, lets wait and see….
155. I don’t trust ComRes that much, certainly less than YouGuv and ICM, but any bad poll for the Tories has to be good news.
155. relax it’s comres
Brown = Useless, says everyone:
“The UK government has become “utterly dysfunctional” and is failing to prepare for spending cuts, the head of the civil servants’ union has said.
“No-one is clear how the Treasury, the prime minister’s office and the Cabinet Office actually loop together and come up with a coherent policy initiative.
“When Gordon Brown became prime minister, no clear direction ever emerged from him,” he said.”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8476450.stm
155. I was just going to point that out! Depends how they spin it. Potentially they could spin a “no change” from ComRes as a large drop.
159, plus ComRes are rather prone to volatility.
157 Chris - It’s usual to wait until the messenger arrives before shooting him.
If the AQ audience is anything to go by, there’s more than a few people sickened by Camerons corpse chasing
by tim January 23rd, 2010 at 6:30 pm
Did I miss something ?
Both the victims survived by a whisker - and are therefore not corpses.
Idiot.
160. Surely the Sunday Mirror wouldn’t do that would they?
Heavy week on the doorstep with a few by elections on my plate… No question of a drop in Tory support with some Soft Cons switching to the LD’s and some hard Cons switching to UKIP. I expect to see this in the polls, but suspect this movement is more significant in the safe seats than in the battleground seats.
149 - David - I think it would be a mistake to simply write off a bad Tory poll tonight by blaming the polling organistaion. I am a committed Conservative and a great fan of David Cameron but it has been 2 weeks of pretty bad news for the Tories - most of it self inflicted. Apart from David Cameron, who gave a brilliant defence of his policy yesterday, nobody else seems to have a clue on how to sell thithe marriage tax break to the public. The most outrageous attacks on it (eg Balls and Byrne) simply go unchallenged and anyone who saw Caroline Spellman on QT this week must have winced at her feeble defence/explanation of it. The Conservative Party has got to wake up and recognise that they are up against just about the most unscrupulous bunch imaginable who will use any trick in the book to distort and smear the policies and motives behind those policies.(witness the dreadful allegation of corpse chasing) They are up[ against most Quango’s who have been stuffed with NuLab luvvies for the past decade. The Party cannot afford to act in an amatuerish way in this Campaign and at the moment it is doing just that. I shall not be at all suprised if the polls refelect that this weekend.
Footage of Rory Stewart when he was governor in Iraq. He looks 12 years old!
Totally O/T - But does anyone know how (or even if) I can get hold of an electronic version of the Rallings and Thrasher notionals for the next election. My initial googling suggests the Media guide book, but I really don’t want to type them all in…
2nd part of Rory Stewart’s Lawrence of Arabia documentary on TV right now.
Link to BBC2 live on t’Internet:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/bbctwo/watchlive/
before this poll comes out Mike, please note this.
158.re 126. Coldstone - Any posts that call into question the professional integrity of pollsters are moderated. Please stop being silly.
by Mike Smithson January 11th, 2010 at 9:37 am
Any one caught infringing the above statement will of course be reprimanded.
164 It’d be useful to know who you are canvassing for.
164 - Reflecting, what were the reasons for the switching?
9% lead in ComRes - ConHome
Tories 9% ahead in new ComRes poll and heading for majority of 38 in ICM/ News of the World marginals survey http://is.gd/6T8o9
166. Agree about Caroline Spellman on QT. Richard Madley, yes Richard “The Plank” Madley defended the Tories marriage tax stance better than Caroline Spellman. What does that tell you?
However, I don’t believe many people will change their votes either way on the marriage stuff.
Peter Buss - yes they are a shambles
162 - Read the speech for the corpse namechecks, airhead.
169.Stop being a silly boy. I don’t doubt the integrity of comres, I just look at their recent record compared to actual elections, I’ll stick with ICM.
38/29/19
Pretty bad for the Tories.
174. OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO a marginals poll. Geektastic!
Lots of interest as always for political anoraks.
But step back a minute - has anything actually happened in the last 7 days that would lead to any real switching of votes? I doubt it.
ComRes tend to be more likely to over-state Labour than the others, don’t they? Be nice to get the vote shares. It’s more than the % lead that matters.
165. PeterBuss January 23rd, 2010 at 7:03 pm
I would agree with much or what you write - I do think the Tories need to take the boxing gloves off. The Brown Government is a vile and obnoxious outfit and they and some of their supporters certainly do not play by normal political rules/Niceness.
They have been warned but seem not to take it on board. Whilst i dont expect them to descend to the Labour level the Tories attacks just are not getting through IMO. The Tories need to be damaging Labour day in and day out now: not waiting for Labour to make mistakes. I am not very impressed with some of the Tory strategy and frankly I could do a lot better than whoever is devising it. Someone is trying to be too clever IMO - The time for cleverness has past: Brute force and hard punches are required now!
The anti Tory media bias has been there for all to see this week. David Cameron has been banging on about the problems in Society for the past 18 months yet his reference to the Edlington horo and whether it has lessons for the wider society is blatantly questioned on Sky and BBC as an election stunt.Howeve Brown is lauded to the skies for ringing up Simon Cowell to get a record done for Aid to Haiti and simply no one from Sky or the BBC even hint that his motives might not be wholly pure as there is an election in the offing.
178. You think thats bad, just think of that ComRes poll last year that had the Tories on 30% and an 8% lead.
Oh no. A poll on the narrower side of the recent ones projecting an outright majority.
I think this understates the Tories moderately. But there we are.
38 28 19 according to sky for comres
176. Who are you calling an airhead himbo?
182. Surely you’re not suggesting the Newspapers are pro-Labour too? I tend to think that in this country tv media is liberal and newspapers are conservative. Interestingly the US appears to be more the other way around.
Tories 9% ahead in new ComRes poll and heading for majority of 38 in ICM/ News of the World marginals survey
So, 10 point lead, Labour still below 30 and Tories in touching distance of 40. Not a disaster.
171. Some, purely local (one of our local Tory MPs has been in the ‘news’ again) but also people saying to put it in simple terms, ‘the more I actually here about what the Tories would do, the less I like it..’.
I think Cameron and his team are caught in the horns of a dilemma, people are expecting to hear much more detail, but aren’t necessarily going to like it. I’m seeing people who are normally Tories but supported UKIP in the Euros sticking with them and ‘liberal’ Tories moving to a more sympathetic view of the LD’s where recognition of Clegg is increasing.
O/T Leeds Utd equalise with 96th minute penalty-oh I do hope I meet a Spurs fan when I’m in the pub later-if I don’t have a heart attack laughing!!
189. Wayne, we know thanks.
sorry should have been 38 29 19 typos not good on poll numbers
The News of the world poll was just of Labour seats - If the Tories experience a similar swing from Labour to Tory the majoity goes up to 88!
Not sure whether they mean Labour to Tory thus affecting Lib Dems or what there but it sounds about right! Even though we will hear the Lib Dems claim alsorts of Bullshit!
ICM marginals poll does NOT include Con / LD marginals.
Majority would be 88 if same swing in those.
Maybe that’s optimistic but this poll is forecasting a majority of well above 38.
190, the same is true of all parties because the solutions are all bad. More tax, or cutting spending. People don’t like that. Labour have a Budget to deliver, and even if they don’t they’ll still have to state their intentions.
Interesting comment on Any Questions ‘I desperately want to vote for David Cameron but then he opens his mouth and it makes it almost impossible’(audience cheer).
I sense he speaks for a lot of voters. To say he’s imploding is perhaps an overstatement. However I think even Tories must agree that he looked a lot better on the catwalk than he does posing as a potential PM.
This ComRes poll is putting Con & Lab back to the 20th December poll I believe. So Labour infighting in the headlines and Cons up, Labour out of the headlines, Con down. Hmmmm…
The regionals poll looks interesting and shows Cameron en-route to a Maggie-style majority. Indicates they are finding it harder going against the LibDems, which is not particularly surprising.
197, that’s much more original than “I’m a Conservative voter but hate the most popular leader we’ve had for over a decade”.
180 Frank Booth you’re wrong re Labour vote share - sounds sad I know to have even calculated it but ComRes average Lab vote share is lowest of all pollsters
ICM poll is basically saying Con Maj 38 if there are NO Con gains from LD.
193.14% to others - I would think highly unlikely. But if being 9% behind 14 weeks out from an election is seen as good for Labour, it shows how bad things really are for them
I just saw odds on Leeds at 500/1! WTF?
Martin and Mike L.That’s why I like pb.c. It only takes about 5 minutes for a contrary voice.
If we take the Com Res poll 38/29/19 then Cameron is 14 short of a majority, still close but not there.
193. Identical figures to the last-but-one Comres then.
198. “I sense he speaks for a lot of voters.”
Roger, is that like you sensed the Northern Rock crisis would all be over within a week? Or that Obama wouldn’t be Pres? Or that Brown would call an election in 2007 and win a Labour majority? Frankly, your hunches aren’t always that accurate are they?
195. How could there possibly be the same swing in the Con/Lib Dem marginals? The Labour vote would have to go negative in some of them.
And so….
the endgame begins…
197. How many cheers did they get for “Gordon Brown; 5 more years!”?
173 a poll in marginals predicting the useless Scottish Tories are set to unseat both Jim Murphy and Alistair Darling must be wrong because Rod Crosby has told us that in Scotland it is more likely there will be a Con<Lab swing.
198. Maybe the politicalbetting post about marriage in the marginals is correct. If so, then once again cam has totally outwitted brown.
My local MP,in Bournemouth East,Tobias Ellwood,who is a very nice chap,states he has lost count of the number of people who say ‘you are a very nice man but I cannot bring myself to vote for your party’
BTW,POTWAS-poor old Tottenham what a shame!
The wonderful thing as well is given the smirk on Brown’s face when he answers Clegg’s second question that he thinks he’s getting one over on the LDs.
Stupid berk - but then we all knew that.
For those who trust ICM and YouGov most tonight’s poll is outstanding for the Conservatives.
It’s saying 8.5% swing in marginals - ie effectively a 14% lead nationally for purposes of seat calculators.
209. Evening Rod. Swingback is taking place with ComRes - Swingback to the last but one ComRes poll infact.
What do you make if the ICM/NotW marginals polls? Good news for team Blue right?
208
You said that polls before last, then disappeared when the next ones show an increased Tory lead.
ComRes
Electoral Calculus:
Con: 321 (+113)
Lab: 247 (-99)
LibDem: 51 (3 gains, 19 losses)
Nat: 10 (4 gains, 2 losses)
Min: 3
National Prediction: CON short 5 of majority
Wells:
Con: 312 (+114)
Lab: 257 (-99)
LibDems: 51 (-11)
Other: 12 (nc)
NI: 18
Hung Parliament, Conservatives 14 seats short
175 - Tim - I do not believe the Party is a shambles but was just trying to make a serious unbiased comment.
Have to say the “corpse “comment was pretty disgraceful and its that sort of remark from a Labour supporter which simply confirms me in my thinking that there is absolutely nothing your Party will not do or say to stay in power.
I have this belief that all the main Parties want the best for this Country and its citizens. The argument is about how that is best achieved. Under Brown though a truly nasty smear hs become commonplace namely that the Tories are only interested in the rich and privileged and gear their policies accordingly.As a Tory voter I personally find that deeply insulting and when you think about it, its a slur on every single Tory Voter as its saying that they couldn’t care two hoots about the less well off. That is one (there are many others) reason why I (an ordinary bloke) find your Leader so obnoxious and the sooner he is booted out of office the better. Interestingly Tony Blair never roused those same feelings of antipathy in me.
217 In both instances,as the 5 Sinn Fein MPs do not take their seats,and customararly the 13 Ulster MPs would vote with the largest block,surely Cameron would be pretty assured to pass a Queen’s Speech?
Tory Majority of 30 - 200 still nailed on: I am thinking of revising it actually upto 50-200! Still a bit too early to be precise but I still think the Tories will win well.
Mind due what I was saying above about the Tories taking on Labour hard has a flaw - the real campaign has not started yet. So whilt their may not be bare knuckle political fighting their is time yet!
We are still in the media Bullshit war!
Incisently with regard to media bias i noticed a piece in the Daily Mail on some billionaire pulling the plug on some London Restaurant because he did not like the food and the comment “The Old Etonian….” - The Daily Mail are a strange lot.
217. ICM are forecasting 129 Lab losses to Con alone (ie excluding losses to LD).
191. Patrick. I’m one but I am not in your pub. You can still have a laugh though. But could you save me a pint?
Looks as if the Gods are deserting Spurs at the moment, I went last week when nothing went right then.
Tonight’s Com Res Poll leaves the Tories 14 short of a majority. 38/29/19 All to play for now.
“What do you make if the ICM/NotW marginals polls? Good news for team Blue right?”
I haven’t seen it, but I always take ‘em with a pinch of salt, for reasons given previously.
This national poll could not conceivably produce a majority of 38…
“I always take ‘em with a pinch of salt, for reasons given previously.”
Yes - it’s not favourable to Labour.
I’m wary of both polls here - ComRes because it’s ComRes (i.e. prone to interesting fluctuation), and the marginals poll because it’s not clear that it’s weighted according to the demographics of the marginals sampled. But the answer to “Are the Tories getting too much coverage?” appears to be “Yes”, since they’ve certainly had lots in the period sampled and it seems to have reduced their support.
210. “Scottish Tories are set to unseat both Jim Murphy and Alistair Darling”
Worth a repost I think!
Sorry, stjohn
222 Nothing personal,I hasten to add-I’ve had so much cr@p spouted about West Ham by Spurs fans over the years that its nice to turn the tables for once-if I met you,I’m such a softy at heart I’d probably buy you a pint-but get some jokes in before closing time!
Lets clarify this? is this a National poll ? I am slightly confused? Can anyone give the correct SP???
218 - PeterBuss - well said.
Crosby Comres probabilistic
Con 309
Lab 248
LD 56
SNP 11
PC 5
Oth 3
NI 13
Con 14 seats short, 2.0% swingback to Labour largest party…
ConHome have some of the detail on the Mirror poll:
The poll finds strong support for David Cameron’s contention that British society is broken. 59% agree, 39% disagree.
The Sunday Mirror explores the popularity of Cameron’s strong support for marriage and the family. After another week of Labour attacks, ComRes found 44% agreeing that the Conservative Party has an outdated view of the modern family with 45% disagreeing. 47% say it’s a good idea that tax breaks go to married couples but not those who cohabit. 50% think it a bad idea.
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/thetorydiary/2010/01/icm-poll-of-key-marginals-for-the-news-of-the-world-points-to-conservative-majority-of-at-least-38.html
187 - The DT and Mail never miss a chnace to put the boot into Cameron.The Timnes is till pretty much NuLab.the Guardian and Independent are both anti Tory.The Express is Tory and pro Cameron.
The Sun has come out in support of Cameron but as yet has not really been shouting for him.
Rodders, I remember the ICM/NotW marginals polls being very accurate before the 97, 01 and 05 general elections.
In Gallup’s daily tracking poll, Obama’s job approval and disapproval numbers have converged for the first time, at 47%:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/113980/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Job-Approval.aspx
Obama should receive a bit of a bump after next week’s State of the Union address, but he’ll probably take another hit if the death of Obamacare becomes official (Pelosi and Reid are still trying to find some way to thread the needle).
Interesting supplementaries
226. Nick Palmer MP January 23rd, 2010 at 7:29 pm
Labours problem is they are great at opposition but not so good at Government!
Labour have ceased to behave like a Government.
Since XMAS Labour have just critised the Tories, fair enough - But how long can Labour do this? What constructive program can Labour put forward? Their is nothing I can see and I dont think the HH agenda is positive.
The News of the World has a new ICM poll of marginal seats in tomorrow’s paper. ICM’s sample covered the 97 seats where Labour are in first place and the Conservatives in second place, and where the Conservatives need a swing between 4% and 10%. The implied assumption is that seats with a majority of less than 4% are going to be Conservative gains anyway on the current national polls and not worth looking at – instead these are the seats that span from a hung Parliament to a chunky Conservative majority.
229 Maggie Thatcher Fan
No, it is a poll of marginals, excluding Con/LD marginals. No detail on which marginals have been sampled.
However, I think if that is the case, then it is a bad poll for the Conservatives. They have been outperforming UNS in marginals recently.
Comparing the “marginal lead” of 9% to the “actual lead” of 13% in the last ComRes, it seems they are losing support.
Marginal poll is not ‘favourable to team blue’.
Figures are Tories 40 Labour 37, too close to call. The swing may be irrelevant and past history may come to play the closer we get to the poll.
219. The SDLP take the Labour whip, any UUP MP’s will now take the Tory whip and will boost DC’s ranks. There seem to be some machinations going on with the DUP and the Tories which could also have an impact on the numbers at Westminster.
226 - NPMP. Whilst I am equally wary of ComRes you’re spinning a touch. This puts the parties back to their December positions. So the infighting cause a temporary Tory blip-up and then it’s back to normal. So actually the policies/coup/foul-ups, whatever you want to call them have had no permanent effect.
The topline voting intention figures in these seats, with changes from the last electon, are CON 40%(+9.2), LAB 37%(-7.4), LDEM 14%(-3.8) – so a swing of 8.3% from Labour to the Conservatives. In contrast the last ICM national poll showed a national swing of 6.5%, so once again we find a slightly larger swing towards the Conservatives in the Con-Lab marginal seats they need to win. This has been pretty consistent in all polls of marginal seats in the last couple of years.
(Wells)
238 A majority of 4% requires two-party swing of 2% to make it change hands
232 - SthLondon Nick January 23rd, 2010 at 7:31 pm
Thinking back to yesterday’s thread about marginals = more married people those figures don’t look too bad.
Remember, the so called torygraph was running the helpful story of petrol rises for marriage cut on thursday which im assuming was part of the samplying period. Maybe this explains the straight swap of 4% to others.
and for all those labour gloaters… your still sub 30!!!
236. wibbler January 23rd, 2010 at 7:33 pm
Given 45% disagree that it is outdated that is a good figure for the Tories as Labour and Lib Dem have both been against it.
As the thread before mentioned it is the seats where the folk agree with the policy and distrubution that counts. If the Tories got 45% in the marginals that would be a landslide because of course Labour/LD are not one party.
@224: Don’t you think that’s exactly the value of the marginals polls. The national headline figures rather disguise the reality on the ground, because the average out the places where either side are piling up the votes in their safe constituencies. The *huge* improvement in the figures for the Tories when you just leave Scotland out of the equation demonstrates this.
Plus, the Tories are pouring money into the marginals, and have been for a long time. These are a relatively small proportion of *all* seats, yet again (if campaigning actually does make a difference) it is reasonable to assume that they will be disproportionately likely to vote Tory, by comparison with the average.
I would suggest, therefore, that the UNS calculators are only useful for betting purposes in terms of predicting which way the markets are going to go - given that they seem to drift based on the current direction of the headline polling numbers.
239. There is no question that the marginals poll is outstanding for the Conservatives.
It is forecasting a swing in the marginals equivalent to a 14% Con national lead. It is foreacting 129 Con gains from Lab.
Compare this to the ComRes when input into seat calculators.
241 Thanks for the info-I (wrongly based on the Feb 74 scenario) assumed Ulster MPs voted en-bloc-your info is very gratefully received
235 Stars Re NJ I take your point on the Democratic machin co-operating but think they are in such disarray that CC could turn any gridlock against them as Clinton did with Gingrich. As for expectations I think he has a really good chence of success after the last year. CC could always give Gotti Jnr a position in his administration I suppose. Other than that I think he will be viewed as a success.
231. Crosby
“The News of the World has a new ICM poll of marginal seats in tomorrow’s paper. ICM’s sample covered the 97 seats where Labour are in first place and the Conservatives in second place, and where the Conservatives need a swing between 4% and 10%. The implied assumption is that seats with a majority of less than 4% are going to be Conservative gains anyway on the current national polls and not worth looking at – instead these are the seats that span from a hung Parliament to a chunky Conservative majority.
The topline voting intention figures in these seats, with changes from the last electon, are CON 40%(+9.2), LAB 37%(-7.4), LDEM 14%(-3.8) – so a swing of 8.3% from Labour to the Conservatives. In contrast the last ICM national poll showed a national swing of 6.5%, so once again we find a slightly larger swing towards the Conservatives in the Con-Lab marginal seats they need to win. This has been pretty consistent in all polls of marginal seats in the last couple of years.”
NOW SHUT THE F4CK UP YOU TW4T !
Detail on ICM/NOTW marginals poll
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/2425
re 169 coldstone I believe lightningrod was calling into question the professional integrity of the journalists who spin polls to suit whatever story they have in mind rather than the polling organisations. Once you’ve sold the numbers you don’t have much control over what’s written about them.
Paddy Power - Best pollster
YouGov 5/2
Angus Reid Strategies 3/1
ICM 3/1
Populus 9/2
Ipsos MORI 9/2
ComRes 5/1
241 Some are suggesting the DUP will give up Belfast South and F
What it doesn’t tell us is how well the Conservatives are doing against the Liberal Democrats in their marginal seats. On these particular figures it isn’t critical – if there was a uniform swing amongst Lab vs Con marginal seats these figures would net the Tories around 124 extra seats, and added to the 214 seats they start with on the new boundaries that alone would be enough for David Cameron to win a small overall majority even if the Con vs LD battle was completely static. (Wells)
249 Mike L
I am confused. Is the ComRes poll a marginals poll, or a full poll?
The ICM poll is definitely a marginals poll.
239. You have to bear in mind that it’s a poll of “the mid range marginals” where the Tories need a swing of 4-10%. As said above, anything less than 4% is a gimme on these figures and it’s likely that a few from the strata above this will also turn blue.
and FST
So there we go. Tories could get a majority of 30-40 with a national lead of less than 10%. I am still shocked at the number of people who still can’t think outside the UNS box. The Tories are targeting marginals. They will outspend Labour. They will blitz the marginals prior to polling day. The national result is always down to local or set by seat campaigns. It’s a simple premise and one people would probably do well to remember.
253. W^yne! How rude! :O
259 http://threethousandversts.blogspot.com/2010/01/dup-to-stand-down-in-two-seats.html
262. Gin
Well the man is a complete bonkers!
197 - Roger, on his worst days Cameron is head and shoulders above anything Labour has to offer at present.
It will be easier for you when you get to the acceptance phase, it really is over for Labour in government, no longer 5 more years but 5 more months.
251- That’s certainly a plausible theory. If Christie can be successful in the public relations war the way Clinton was by passing off blame for gridlock and flawed legislation on the Dems running the state legislature, he could end up being seen as a necessary counterweight to them rather than simply a failed governor, should things not improve substantially. Of course, if things do improve substantially, he will receive credit for it.
254
Errr can’t see that at all, I questioned the way the poll was presented in the Sun, not the actual poll result.
I’m not a fan of marginal polls, on the day, don’t think they’ll behave any differently from the rest, so its still Nomaj for me.
235 - Will Obamacare become Snowecare? She has just said she is willing to listen if the Dems compromise.
258. ComRes is a national poll.
I fear I agree with NPMP. The interesting thing here, amidst the noise, is that Smithson’s Golden Rule 15 (or whatever it is) has finally been broken, definitively.
The Tories and Cameron have been all over the media these last days, but this has NOT benefited them, in terms of polling..
A significant change, and one that should worry Tories.
That said, the marginals poll cannot be entirely ignored. I reckon Tories are gonna do so well in middle England, Scotland won’t matter: therefore Cameron will win, but not with a landslide.
218 - well said Peter!
Lilly - don’t give up the teaching job…
268- She did say that, but working out something with her was already attempted and it failed. They’d likely have to start over and craft a new bill in order to win her support (she won’t be won over with a simple Cornhusker Kickback kind of deal).
Oh! 38-29-19 Comres is what I’ve been giving for months, although I think the Libdems could do better.
266 Stars indeed. You can bet if NJ recovers even if it has nothing to do with him the voters could well view him as being the harbinger of recovery. I think he’ll get all the backing that the national GOP can get as well. If the GOP does return as a force anywhere in the North East my money is on it being in NJ which votes with its pocketbook rather than having cultural issues to fight about.
Disappointing to see a poll with Conservatives below 40% though hopeful result from ICM.
Disappointing that Plato & Witan leap on a new poster making a perfectly believable point (”Harold Wilson”) and adding to knowledge. I felt the Balls interview was risible and its motives clear but had no doubt Balls had a stammer. I have come across the stammer when reading from text aloud while not in conversation a few times both at school and in business.
Evening all
The ComRes poll looks a bit odd, with Con down 4% and Others up 4% - no change in Lab or LibDem.
261.”So there we go. Tories could get a majority of 30-40 with a national lead of less than 10%. I am still shocked at the number of people who still can’t think outside the UNS box. The Tories are targeting marginals. They will outspend Labour. They will blitz the marginals prior to polling day. The national result is always down to local or set by seat campaigns. It’s a simple premise and one people would probably do well to remember.”
afleitch, agreed.
276.
I think we can conclude that with everybody else showing the Tory share on 40% + THAT THIS POLL IS BOLLOCKS!
View outside of Westminister and political professionals:
Nothing has changed - Labour are still likely to have a catastophic defeat!
I have seen nothing since XMAS to suggest a change invoting intention worthy of comment! Folk are still the same - A time for Change!
Indeed i have been surprised by some of the folk thinking of changing their vote this time.
174 “However, I don’t believe many people will change their votes either way on the marriage stuff.”
Two sides to it. It’s like immigration in 2005 - Tories say something, BBC attack them, Tories look all guilty, indecisive and shifty. It’s the looking guilty and shifty that’s damaging.
People like IDS and Field know/believe there’s a connection between all this and the country slowly turning into a Lord of the Flies re-enactment club so when the BBC attack their views they stand their ground. Pols who aren’t sure of that connection should restrict themselves to talking about the perverse incentives to split up built into the benefit system as then they’ll come across better.
imo
Interesting bit of the Wells commentary not highlighted above - the near-tie of the party leaders on most issues is striking. These are current Labour seats so Brown will tend to do a bit better than elsewhere, but they are still semi-marginals with the Tories ahyead, so the perceived gap in esteem seems to be closing. The fact that three quarters of the voters in the crucial seats can’t remember hearing anything from either party is a useful reality check to us all.
“Going back to the ICM poll, there was scant evidence that the larger Conservative swing in marginal seats came from out-campaigning Labour or having more money to throw about. 28% of respondents recalled having received party literature, been canvassed or seen other signs of campaigning by the Conservatives, not significantly more than the 24% who recalled seeing signs of Labour campaigningin their local area.
ICM also asked whether people trust Cameron or Brown more on various issues. Cameron led decisively on modernising the NHS, cutting crime, controlling immigration and improving standards in schools and united his party. Brown led on dealing with an emergency. On transport, Afghanistan, taxation, the recession and terrorism the two leaders were almost even.”
284
Wishful thinking. BTW Nick, I asked you about fleshing out Labour policies. Apart from the pledge card.. where are they?
Fascinating programme by Rory Stewart.
I really wouldn’t take those questions too seriously NPMP. It seems bizzare that Cameron should lead on the NHS but is level with Brown on tax.
285. You didn’t really have to tell us that, you know…
We need more polls but perhaps the voters have clocked shallow Dave
285. Martin, have you and W*yne been drinking?
289 More polls wont do you any good tim, Your comments are getting ever more shallow.
291. GIN January 23rd, 2010 at 8:02 pm
Just a Bit!
It was a made up story but it made me laugh a lot!
283 - MrJones is right about this IMO - it’s not (just) the policy that is undermining the Tory position but the shifty stuff - “no, we didn’t mean that, we meant something else, and I’ll tell you what it is when we’ve worked it out”. It’s a bad habit of Cameron’s and one respect that he’s very different from Tony Blair (who for all his faults was always willing to argue a case).
SthLondonNick - as you say, ComRes goes up and down - you could equally say that the poll before last which this matches was in fact quite good for Labour compared with the one befoire. But the underlying position is pretty clear even if we disagree on hat hpapens next - the current position is that the Tories are not very popular, but on the edge of a majority.
285 - wait and see, MTF. We’re not faffing about with these fluffy ‘for two pins we might…’ draft manifestos.
287. Labour was weak on public services in 2005. It was the economy that won them the election.
290 If the Tories win an overall majority,I suspect Wayne will enjoy election night as much as I did in ‘97-well,maybe he won’t quite be tracked by NASA orbitting the planet like me in ‘97,but nearly!
289. if 38% mean theyve clocked dave, then what on earth does it say about brown on 29%!
I find it amazing how lab suppporters ignore 29%
“Tony Blair (who for all his faults was always willing to argue a case).”
Perhaps Cameron doesn’t think that arguing a case like Blair by lying is acceptable.
284. The trouble you have, inevitably, is that you’ve been in power for 13 years. What can you possibly implement now thats new and original? By this point the public have heard it all before over and over again.
297
Well the Labour party has been in power for 13 years, the history of third term governments is not a good one. More importantly despite it all, the Tories struggle to get above 40%.
One of Mike’s assumptions, (wrong in my opinion) is that the Labour party and Brown in particular will have a dreadful campaign: can’t count on it. If the last few weeks have shown us anything, its the Tories are wobbly under fire.
293 Nick P - I think Stars and Stripes made an extremely interesting comment on the last thread (he often has insights that come, perhaps, from seeing things from a distance):
at least the Tories are throwing some ideas out there that give them some credibility in the eyes of voters as a party that is prepared to govern. Given the risks mentioned by David, it seems a good idea to get this phase of the campaign out of the way now, so they can pivot later in the game and put the spotlight back on Labour as the election approaches. It seems it would be even riskier to simply hide in the bushes until election day and hope the voters will never expect the Tories to offer serious policy ideas.
by Stars and Stripes January 23rd, 2010 at 2:12 pm
300. GIN January 23rd, 2010 at 8:08 pm
Thats just it - Labour are completly busted and we should not mistake their core vote strategy for a general election winning strategy. Maybe Gordon Brown thinks that it is the same thing but i think come polling day Labour will be lucky to get 25% of the vote. I think Labour is going to be short between thiose who say they will vote for it and those who turn out for it. Maybe in some places quite dramtically!
299 The Tories got re-elected in 92 after 13 years in power -albeit with the advantage of a new,more acceptable leader than his predecssor
294 Of course you are not talking manifesto’s NIck. There isnt a Labour Manifesto, Labour’s manifesto isnt even written..
Labour on 29% is not good for them. Interesting to see the Others on the rise again. UKIP will win 4-5% of the vote I think.
296. I’ve got the champagne on ice for election night. But I don’t want to get so drunk that I can’t savour ever humiliating minute of it for Labour, so I’ll have to “limit” myself.
300. yes they have been but labour arent the ones benefitting. In comres case it is others who have benefitted. People do not like brown. Simple. Labour shouldve elected someone else who, at minimum, limited the outcome to tory minority government.
302. 25% for Labour would be a disaster!
303
How many others can you name?
306 Strangely,though I drank copiously on election night 97,I was on such an adrenalin high that it ‘did not touch the sides’-I just kept going like a loony until c.5.30am-when I finally flaked out,just after Blairs speech at the Albert Hall.(I still recall Portillo’s facial expression a couple of minutes before his count,and as for my re-action to his result..that must have registered on the Richter scale!!)
293 - NPMP. I like to see a series showing a pattern like many on here. But by your definition I am interested in your opinion of Labour’s popularity when they won with 35% in 2005?
309 Well,erm..you and I both know four sucessive wins was a record in the 20th C-and I’d have to thumb the reference books to look back at the 19th C to find a longer period of one-party-rule
Evening all,
So there we have another ‘time of the month’ poll from Comres. Mid month the Conservatives have strong lead and a week later it has diminished to others. Hmmmmmm there is something intriguing happening there clearly? But with Comres when isn’t there….?
And then there is an ICM marginals poll which doesn’t even bother to consider whether our own poor old Nick Palmer will survive. They’ve just taken it as read that he’s toast……
Hard to know what to make of them given that the ICM poll suggests the Conservatives will take something like 124 out of the 141 least safe Lab/Con seats (with even Jack Straw still being somewhat under threat). Whereas the Comres poll suggests a tally some 25 seats less than that and back in what has become the left’s nirvana (how sad of them) of Hung Parliament territory.
Given Comres’s rather tarnished reputation and their current rather unpredictable figures for the Conservatives / others (up and down like a…….) my tendency is to play safe and go with the ICM results.
Oh well just have to have a look at the detail and see if that can spread some further light on matters…..
The delectable ‘Nicola Murray’ is on Newsnight - LIVE !
303 - Patrick, Major won because people distrusted Kinnock enough I suspect and there were enough who were happy with keeping what Thatcherism offered without Thatcher. Put the two together and I suspect you will find enough people to win an election. The question is, can Labour do it?
308. GIN January 23rd, 2010 at 8:15 pm
Indeed but they have nothing to say.
If you are going to do a defensive campaign fair enough but what can Labour say they will do the Tories wont, thats positive?
I can think of nothing - Labour are on a hiding to nothing: The longer it goes on the worse their turnout will be IMO.
Labour have surrended the centre ground and have nothing to appeal to their traditional core vote. They spread themselves way too thin and for many years i have thought when the time comes they are not just heading for defeat but meltdown. I have long thought this back as far as 1998 - I thought it would come sooner but it may only be now that they get what they deserve!
Compare and contrast -
NP ‘The near-tie of the party leaders on most issues is striking’
‘Cameron led decisively on modernising the NHS, cutting crime, controlling immigration and improving standards in schools and united his party. Brown led on dealing with an emergency. On transport, Afghanistan, taxation, the recession and terrorism the two leaders were almost even.’
NP spinning madly as ever.
Nick Palmer:
that the Tories are not very popular
So what does that make Labour and the Libdems then Nick?
yingtong.. That’s not going to be a ‘rickroll’ is it ?
284 - NPMP. I was going to come to that in a bit. What’s interesting is how those areas that Labour should traditionally win on (NHS, Education) seem to have gone completely. It’s the tax and recession one that is more interesting. Brown built his reputation on the economy and his chancellorship and yet he can only draw level. I suspect some of the tax issue is due to the level of uncertainty on the coming cuts. If Labour do hold a budget it’s going to be interesting to see how they handle that…
315 Frankly-no,that’s a nice,honest spin-free line that shows not all Labourites are bad people! Also,the record of how Major unravelled in his fourth term makes me think ‘getting out now’ after three terms long-term is in Labour’s best interest
226 - Rod. “This national poll could not conceivably produce a majority of 38″
Don’t be silly Rod, of course it could. There’s a margin of error for a start. I’ve not seen the sample size but assuming a usual 3% MoE, that means that the 95% likely Tory lead is between 3% (a 35/32 split) and 15% (a 41/26 one). I’m pretty sure that somewhere in that lot, you’d get a majority of 38.
In fact, even a 38/29 split could produce a Tory majority of 38 with some positive tactical voting or a drop in turnout in Tory safe seats (or an increase in safe Labour ones). The difference between a single-figure minority as per post [219] and a majority of 38 is less than 25 seats.
As an aside, it’s exactly two years today since the last poll that put Labour ahead - a Mori that gave Labour a one point lead on 23/1/08.
A great shame that Labour didn’t get rid of Brown when they had the chance. I believe voters are now caught between the frying pan and the fire. With almost any other leader I’m sure Labour against a Cameron led Tory Party would be a shoo-in.
Please tell me that the Sunday Mirror are going with that picture and headline (via ConHom) on their front page tomorrow?
320 - My cousin is hign in the NUT, he has always been a Labourite however on Sunday he mentioned the phrase ‘when there is a change of government’, he cannot wait for Balls and Labour to be kicked out of power so the stupid unfunded initiaves can be dropped. Very suprising as he has always slagged off the Conservatives in the recent past.
321 Hindsight is wonderful, but the history of 92-97 doesn’t have to repeat for Labour. It could be if the Tories win now they will be in for as long as they were from 79. Who knows.
USA - Obama - house elections
“Coakley carries districts where Obama got 65% or more of the vote and runs essentially even in the district where he got 64%, and Scott Brown runs ahead in districts where Obama got less than 64% of the vote.
Let’s extrapolate those numbers to the nation as a whole and assume that a district that voted 64% or more for Obama is safe for Democrats even under the most dire of circumstances. How many such districts are there? Answer, according to this source: 103.
The other 332 districts voted 63% or less for Obama. Interestingly, there are more 64%+ Obama districts in the West (36) than in the East (27) and more in the South (21) than in the Midwest (19).
So that means that 101 of the 256 House Democrats represent 64%+ Obama districts and that 155 House Democrats represent districts which might, according to the Massachusetts metric, be vulnerable in some circumstances to Republican capture.”
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/blogs/beltway-confidential/If-Republicans-run-like-Brown-then-only-103-House-Dems-are-truly-safe-82360422.html
@322:
David, aside from the fact that Rod has conflated a national poll with a marginals poll, you appear to be making the fatal mistake of engaging with Rod.
I implore you to cease and desist.
327. It would though. They’re going into the election with unsustainable economic policies (ERM then, deficit now), a party riven with factions and no obvious sense of why it wants to win other than to keep the other lot out.
The details might be different - I remember a comment that it’s sex scandals with Tories and money with Labour - but the result would be the same.
OT: “Rochdale Council’s deputy leader, Dale Mulgrew, has withdrawn from the race to become MP for Rossendale and Darwen a week after declaring Rochdale was his first priority.”
http://www.libdemvoice.org/lancashire-lib-dem-ppc-quits-to-spend-more-time-with-rochdale-council-17678.html
From a Conservative point of view, we get one slightly mediocre poll and one extremely good poll. I can settle for that.
Given that Labour led by 14% in the marginal seats in 2005, compared to 3% nationally, for Labour to be close to the Conservatives on any individual issue still implies a big shift away from them over the past 5 years.
328 The geography probably reflects where the Obama campaign effort was going in 2008. They were hardly going to go opverboard on states they already had locked up in the East and were naturally focused on GOTV of their support in battleground states further west. Not sure how such a point can apply.
http://threethousandversts.blogspot.com/2010/01/dup-to-stand-down-in-two-seats.html 332 Re Ulster.
Will there be a new thread for this new poll?
test
In a perverse sense a slight narrowing is good for the tories - it tends to focus the swing voters minds you see.
336.
Bernard?
Mike is not available right now, but no doubt there will be a thread on this later on.
Its the marginals poll which is the one of real interest.
Cameron’a attack on ‘Broken Britain’ is insane. All those living in or visiting the West End of London during the late 80’s with homeless people in cardboard boxes in every doorway will be reminded of what Broken Britain really looked like. It made Mumbai look civilized. Thatcherism at its worst
331. SthLondon Nick January 23rd, 2010 at 8:41 pm
Is michael Carr contesting a seat next time?
He was the short lived MP for a ribble seat in 1992-1992 from a by-election gain!
The front pages for tomorrow. Only yhe Indy up but it looks like Chilcot is going to start getting bigger:
The Independent on Sunday says that readers should “stand by for fireworks” at Elizabeth Wilsmhurst’s testimony to the Chilcot Inquiry next week.
http://page.politicshome.com/uk/article/5049/sunday_24th_january_2009.html
Postscript: The Sunday Mirror front page is a hoot. Clearly they are trying to take readers off the Sport. What a (crappy) comic!
341 - Roger, this wonderful poll for Labour (aka ComRes) shows he is bang on the money according to a majority…
322. I was referring to this poll as the result of the election, and no - I cannot conceive of a majority of 38 arising from such an oucome…
What on earth is going on down Cannock way this week, thats 3!
“Following on from the switch of Keith and Diane Bennett from the Conservatives to the Liberal Democrats, a third Conservative councillor in Cannock Chase has now also joined the party:
Councillor Mark Green has resigned from the Council’s Conservative Group and has been accepted as a Member of the Council’s Liberal Democrat Group. Mark represents the the Cannock South Ward”.
334. OK so let’s see - those two plus north Down and maybe a couple of gains and we could have 5 Con-UU MPs in NI after the GE.
It would be fun to have a market on this, perhaps with odds on the Con-UU getting more seats than the Tories in Scotland.
341. Roger January 23rd, 2010 at 8:52 pm
My next door neighbours son is about to become homeless (I think the little bastard and his mates torched my car but being homeless at this time of year is bad whatever he may have done). His family have broken up due to economic pressure and his dreadful behaviour. Homelessness is as much an issue now as it was in the 1980s but living in a tax haven abroad - you would not have noticed!
341. It made Mumbai look civilized.
That sounds about as honest as the average advert….
One to watch…
http://www.libdemvoice.org/nigel-waterson-eastbourne-2-17679.html
342 Incorrect-the Tories lost Langbaurg (now Middlesbrough South) on 7th November 1991 and regained it-Ribble Valley was spring ‘91 upon David Waddington’s resignation
POlls looking good for the Liberal Democrats, “Go back to your coinstituencies and prepare for co-alition!”.
Just an aside, a few months ago some posters thought they could end up with 25 seats, later the thirties, then recently the forties, now it seems the fifties. I still suspect the upper seventies and have money on it.
Stephen Hesford (Wirral West) is standing down at the election.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8477192.stm
346. david (s January 23rd, 2010 at 8:55 pm
There is no Lib Dem candidate as yet so i would imagine it means little!
I have to say that I am very disappointed with the tone of ComRes’s press release on this poll. You can read it at LabourList:
http://www.labourlist.org/vulnerable-tories-campaign-in-tatters-and-families-policy-in-cha
It reads like a spin doctor’s press release. It’s not about the message it’s about how the message is framed.
348 You do sound surprisingly humane if the soon-to-be-homeless person did commit a serious act against your property-I confess to being capable of being far more vindictive!
It seems the Country is pretty much evenly split on the Tory Marriage Tax break. As a Tory that is better than I expected bearing in mind the complete shambles we have made in selling it. Certainly NOT the thumbs down that the Mirror has spun it as.
348 The anti-social person you describe needs serious help;probably with much state intervention-which the right would scream ‘gulag’ at-maybe some people DO need 24 hour supervision to put them on the right track
347. Runnymede - if that were to happen and given SF’s absence from Westminster even if the current Comres Poll/ UKPR projection (14 short) was correct, Cameron would have a majority of 1.
Now would SF then turn up to hold the balance of power. Hmmmm intriguing?
It made Mumbai look civilized. Roger don’t talk absolute rot. If you ever have been to India I presume that you don’t see much from your first class seat and your executive limousine with blacked-out windows.
You often do talk rubbish but this one takes the biscuit.
Patrick West Ham fan who is basically Labour but despairs of Gordon Brown January 23rd, 2010 at 8:58 pm
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ribble_Valley_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
I dont see what was incorrect?!!!
355 SthLondon Nick
Is it really up to pollsters to spin like that?
Rather unprofessional, especially in a press release.
I did my one and only PPB for the Lib Dems in 1987. It was Paddy talking to camera about that exact subject. Intercut with him was footage I’d taken of what ‘Broken Britain’ really looked like. I can only think you were too young to notice or perhaps living on a farm. You couldn’t walk past a doorway in the West End which didn’t have someone living in a cardboard box. It’s improved 1000% since the mid 90’s.
“Election debate fixture clash with Champions League football
(…)With polling day a virtual certainty to be 6 May these would be Wednesday 14 April (ITV), Wednesday 21 April (Sky) and Wednesday 28 April (BBC).”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/election-2010/7062079/Election-debate-fixture-clash-with-Champions-League-football.html
@355:
I wouldn’t take ComedyResult too seriously. Nobody else does.
355. Unfortunately all pollsters are the tarts of their clients at the end of the day.
362 wibbler - ComRes have been the BBC’s tame pollster. By their friends shall ye know them……
357 That’s been the finding of polls for some time.
The good news for the Conservatives is that the half of the country who are in favour will mainly vote Conservative, while the half of the country who are against will be split between Labour and Lib Dems.
Someone raised an interesting point about the Conservatives looking shifty. I think one of the most maddening things about the past 13 years has been how fearful of Labour, and how mealy-mouthed, are so many Conservative spokesman. There are hundreds, probably thousands, of people nationwide, who could put the case for Conservatism far better than many of those who are paid to do so.
341 Roger
All those living in or visiting the West End of London during the late 80’s with homeless people in cardboard boxes in every doorway will be reminded of what Broken Britain really looked like.
Not much has changed here Roger, except that the homeless people now get a Prince of the Realm for company. I was going to suggest “a little touch of Harry in the night”, but that would be the wrong Prince and correcting the name would involve worse hazards.
How did your estate agents describe the locality on the particulars for your Soho flat?
368. Blimey Sean its not like you to be that forthright normally….
There are hundreds, probably thousands, of people nationwide, who could put the case for Conservatism far better than many of those who are paid to do so.
356. Patrick West Ham fan who is basically Labour but despairs of Gordon Brown January 23rd, 2010 at 9:00 pm
Well, he is such an idiot - I dont think he will make 30 as he is into drugs already by all accounts. I have no doubt he will die of a Herion overdose or the like at some point between now and thirty. I dont think he does that as of yet but he is guible to that sort of crowd. Yes, I dont like him, he damaged my previous car as well but I would not wish that type of life on anyone. His family is disfunctunal - His dad did not seem to care when he was below the age of 16 how late he was out or what he was upto. I heard what went on - I only hope he ends up in some sort of shelter where they can show him the way to a better life.
However much it annoys me my car is gone - it wont bring it back. You have to be realistic on these things. There is no evidence to my knowledge to convict him for that. What saddens me is he is not unique - there are huge numbers of people like that. He has probablems but he could be knocked into shape I am sure.
I know the leader of Cannock Chase council (Tory). He can’t be very happy about these defections.
Back ti thread…maybe Brown should pull a surprise out of the hat, and go in February hal term while Tory voters are skiing? Feb 18th anyone?
364. ROFLMAO
Well thats them screwed then because those will be the semi-final dates (21st & 28th).
No one is going to be watching those election debates then!
370 I think I have been forthright on occasion. And I think that that comment is true. Quite a few Conservative MPs have given the impression, over the past 13 years, that they don’t actually believe in the arguments that they’re making. And, when you give that impression, how do you persuade others?
368 Sean Fear
There are hundreds, probably thousands, of people nationwide, who could put the case for Conservatism far better than many of those who are paid to do so.
A hearfelt lament, Sean, but you have to admire the results. As Nick Palmer reminds us:
Cameron led decisively on modernising the NHS, cutting crime, controlling immigration and improving standards in schools and united his party. Brown led on dealing with an emergency. On transport, Afghanistan, taxation, the recession and terrorism the two leaders were almost even.
Perhaps you should be referring to Conservative conjurors rather than commentators.
Whilst I know zero about HMG change to the terrorism threat - if it is as widely believed a bad news day diversion, Labour has burnt another bridge for no electoral or credibility gain.
What a state we’re in that HMG is seen as using a hideous terrorist attack as a media diversion tactic.
372- I meant to say I know of him, not I know him. How embarrassing.
Find the Comres poll rather baffling-the change has been a 4% swing from Tories to others.If marriage tax was big issue you wouldn’t expect tory supporters to switch to other more right wing parties.
re 373 well we’ll know on Tuesday
What on earth is going on down Cannock way this week, thats 3!
They say its about personalities, Tories say its about them not accepting the new reforming Con agenda. Story makes page 5 of Chase Post.
362. Just goes to show why ComRes are the biggest f*****g joke in UK polling.
368: I think the main issue/problem the tories have is two-fold, and connected
1) they’re not confident enough in wht they’re saying
2) they’re too afraid of having people disliking or not agreeing with them
I think this will continue until the election and for some time afterwards. It’s only going to be the validation of the election which will confirm the path which they’re forging.
375. Sean I’m not disagreeing with you or questioning your general integrity at all I’m just surprised you said it. From my recollections you don’t often criticise the party.
363. Roger January 23rd, 2010 at 9:05 pm
I saw folk on Totenham Court Road preparing for the night in 2001. It has not gone away unfortunetly - it has been shifted sometimes to other places. I once spoke to someone round here homeless - the poor bastard had been homeless for years but seemed to reject help.
On the otherside of the coin in hampstead their used to be a tramp who lived around hampstead high street and the three horse shoe pub as late as 2001, the last time i went there.
372. defections in local government are never about policy, but about falling outs, or the offer of a chairmanship etc.
Local gvt = big egos
re 377 Plato ask yourself, would you trust whatever this government say about threats to this country? No thought not, ergo it’s a cheap publicity stunt and I wouldn’t worry yourself unnecessarily about it.
381. local councillors have close to no connection with central officer, and council leaders certainly do not receive instruction about reforms or anything.
Somebody would have pissed off somebody, probably over something extremely trivial.
375 see 334. WRT Tories and forthrightness. I thought Hague was very firm for his period in charge. Even IDS was hardly quiet in his views. Sometimes the weather is against a party. I think you mistake the fact the public weren’t listening for the idea that you weren’t shouting hard enough. Even Thatcher was far more cautious in the first seven years of her Leadership than the last seven once she had cemented her position with pary and public.
387 Chris A - you’re wrong - by default I’d trust HMG until recently.
To be fair to Sean Fear, he’s been outspoken about the party for a long time - he’s the most polite, judicious and frank right-wing Tory that I know.
Roger, IIRC you were at Millfield & uni during the 70’s.
I was at LSE in early part then working. I was living in a nice middle class street on border of Brixton & Camberwell and used either to walk/bus it to the Oval or walk to Loughborough Junction. Streets of decaying houses, many boarded up, others occupied by squatters, with some frightened old people clinging to homes they had bought in the 30’s when it was a nice neighbourhood. I knew about 8 different ways home as gangs of feral youths, addicts and muggers made the walk home in the dark a little more dangerous than tracking lions in the Kafue National Park.
At the London end the drunks and homeless around the Embankment, Covent Garden (still a market in the early years) were ever present. The 80’s were perhaps better in parts than the 70’s, worst in others.
Broken Britain has its roots earlier than Thatcher, the de-industrialisation and loss of manufacturing started before Thatcher.
384.jsfl, Sean has never shied away from expressing criticism of the Conservative party over the last 4/5 years that I have been lurking or posting on PB.com. He says what he thinks. His weekly Friday slot was always a must read, and that success was down to his excellent and very well balanced knowledge of the locals.
389. But Hague made some enormous tactical blunders.
I went to 1999 conference, in which he unveiled his ‘Sterling Guarantee’, that under no circumstances would taxes rise if he became PM. He was ridiculed, how on earth can you make such a commitment. And then he endorsed Archer, it was a head shaking moment.
384 - Blimey, you should have seen Mr. Fear on Cameron a few years back. For a time, he was Labour’s and libDem’s fave poster to the utter dismay and indignation of the Conservatives here. He’s been far more moderate for some time now.
375. Sean Fear January 23rd, 2010 at 9:15 pm
I think the expenses system extended the longevity of some of those you refer too! Pre 2005 i would say half the parliamenty conservative party was useless and not good advocates of the tory message.
They are mostly history and the ones left after the election will be in single figures at best.
393 knowledge of the locals
!!
Another interview with Darling:
“Alastair Darling: Do I look excited?
This week figures are expected to show that Britain is finally out of recession. It is news Labour badly needs. But the chancellor says we shouldn’t start to feel better quite yet”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6999707.ece
After Harry Cohen last week…
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6999858.ece
395. Ah well there you go then - it was before my time.
notme January 23rd, 2010 at 9:28 pm
Sterling Guarantee and conservative revolution were core messages.
Given the circumstances, though i was not in agreement i think they were fine for the time. The Tories feared a bigger Labour majority, which could have happened if not for those policies.
263. This is simply a lie. I have lived in central London all my life. I see no visible difference in the numbers of homeless.
They are slightly more dispersed now, but that is thanks to Asbos. All you have to do is ask the homeless themselves, as I have done, researching a book.
I rather doubt Roger has stopped to sully himself by actually talking to homeless people. He just observes them from the back of his taxi, notices there are fewer near Soho House, and draws the obvious and absurd conclusion.
What a fat bloated little leech of a man he is. Sucking the blood of narcissism from the artery of despair, a f*cking TICK, a man who was in ADVERTISING.
Roger is a whore.
377 terrorism threat
Look at the ICM findings again:
“Cameron led decisively on modernising the NHS, cutting crime, controlling immigration and improving standards in schools and united his party. Brown led on dealing with an emergency. On transport, Afghanistan, taxation, the recession and terrorism the two leaders were almost even.”
Brown is only ahead on dealing with emergencies. As I have said before, he gives good flood and he must hanker for the early days in 2007 when he only had to turn out in a pair of wellies to tell the camera that The Government Was Doing Everything In Its Power for commentators of all persuasions to chorus that truly he was The One and that Cameron might as well stay in Rwanda for good for all the harm he was likely to do to Gord’s re election prospects.
I suspect we might have several emergencies in the next couple of months.
391 Nick, and others, thanks for your kind words.
It’s not a criticism of Cameron, or Hague, but there have been a number of frontbenchers over the past 13 years who have given the impression that either they’re incapable of explaining our policies and/or they don’t believe in them.
And then on top of that, regularly between 1997, and Michael Howard becoming leader, our MPs would insist on forming a circular firing squad.
39 Has tim mentioned Mr Cohen? Still, what’s 60k+ - a mere rounding error.
David Chaytor seems to be even more of a fraudster than previously thought
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6999858.ece
Me January 23rd, 2010 at 9:29 pm
Given Gordon Brown is in Hansard doubting economic recovery in 1996 - what is the validity of one set of figures? Especially as we seem doomed to a double dip under Labour governmet? When are Quarter one figures due out end of April?
Ken Clarke warns Tories against making ‘calamitous’ cuts
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6999860.ece#cid=OTC-RSS&attr=6848714
Tories united?
362 Regarding the conclusions of Andrew Hawkins of ComRes.
I note that the punters collectively think that ComRes has the least chance of being accurate amongst all the polling companies.
395 I think the turning point, for me, was seeing Labour 10%+ ahead for a few weeks in 2007. I was impressed by Cameron’s resilience, and also realised I couldn’t stomach the thought of Brown winning an election. It was the moment when I looked over the edge of the abyss.
403 Constan Treader
I suspect there might be several adjustments of the terror rating in the weeks ahead.
389 Punter
I think you mistake the fact the public weren’t listening for the idea that you weren’t shouting hard enough.
Absolutely right and a point that should be made more often when contrasting the fortunes of, say, Hague to Cameron.
When electors stop listening there are no quick tricks to gain their attention that politicians can play.
Nick Palmer should note that however well-formed and complete will be the Labour manifesto, his party needs a receptive and willing audience to communicate and persuade. Harriet may well find it more productive to knock balls around the playing fields of St. Pauls than in print.
399/406 This is where we could do with taking a leaf out of the Americans’ book, and appointing an independent Special Prosecutor for MPs’ expenses scams.
362 Are we sure that was actually a press release issued by Com Res, rather than Labourlist?
It seems an extraordinary statement from a pollster.
WRT ICM, I doubt if we’d see a huge discrepancy between the marginals and the country as a whole, and I’d therefore expect an ordinary ICM poll to show a similar result to Populus.
394. The Tories’ love for Archer was mystifyingly stupid. Archer was a man of stratospheric mendacity, and obvious amorality - a blatant sh1t.
Yet they all sucked up to him, even and beyond the time when his grisly flaws were all-too-apparent.
I’ve never quite been able to fathom his popularity amongst Tories. It did make you question their overall judgement.
408 - Oops, Labour being naughty there Jonathan:
“However, he expressed concern at new figures uncovered by his team that showed 96% of the government’s special recession funding to businesses had gone to Labour constituencies: £502m out of the £521.5m so far allocated from Mandelson’s strategic investment fund has been channelled to Labour areas.
“I would expect a clear majority to go to industrial areas where Labour holds the majority of seats at present,” said Clarke. “I find 96% a staggering statistical coincidence. It sounds like the outcome of a Hungarian communist party parliamentary election.””
410 - Yes, I recall your saying that sometime ago. And a pretty powerful argument it is too.
Seth.I think it was described as ‘lively’ which turned out to be prophetic because the establishment underneath me was called ‘Pussy Galore’. The few week-ends I spent there were badly interupted by people ringing my intercom and asking if ‘Pussy’ was available!
415 Had the “pleasure” seeing Archer in action at close range in the mid 1990s. Not boring by any stretch, but clearly not someone really suitable for power.
412 Seth
to knock balls around the playing fields of St. Pauls than in print.
I thought croquet was more Labour’s thing?
408
Interesting snippet in that article:
“96% of the government’s special recession funding to businesses had gone to Labour constituencies: £502m out of the £521.5m so far allocated from Mandelson’s strategic investment fund has been channelled to Labour areas.”
46/408 WTF??!???
That’s shameless - I do hope Paul Waugh is reading this nevermind CCHQ
Seth.(Sorry for the delay but I’ve been spam-trapped) I think it was described as ‘lively’ which turned out to be accurate because the establishment underneath me was called ‘Pu#sy Galore’. The few week-ends I spent there my sleep was badly interupted by people ringing my intercom and asking if ‘Pu#sy’ was available!
362. Well spotted, and worth repeating:
“In a press release tonight, Andrew Hawkins of ComRes said:
“David Cameron’s attempt to win the votes of Britain’s families is in tatters…Our survey shows the Tories’ lead over Labour has slumped by four points after his flagship policy of tax breaks for married couples collapsed in chaos this week.
Tory leader Mr Cameron will be equally alarmed at the views of the British public on his policies for ordinary families - one of the key battlegrounds ahead of the expected May 6 polling day. Our study found a majority of voters oppose his plan to give a special tax break to married couples.”"
What a grotesque pair of paragraphs. If this appeared in the Daily Mirror, in an editorial, you would say the paper had become so desperately partisan it was losing its touch.
For this to be written by a pollster is mind-boggling. A pollster surely lives or dies by its reputation for scrupulous honesty and fairness.
I can’t imagine any other responsible pollster coming out with statements like this.
The inferences may be true, but for a pollster to make them is deeply inappropriate, entirely tendentious, and devalues the essential task with which they were charged. It’s like the Crown Prosecution Service saying “black people are more likely to be charged than whites”.
Clarify 421 refers to 420/416 in new money.
423 - I’m not sure even Peter Kellner with his often extremely partisan political commentators hat (rather than his pollsters hat) would make such a statement.
415 Sean, Jeffrey Archer happens to be a very charming chap and excellent company at a social event.
423 Did he really say this?
Correct me if I am wrong is this headline not unconstitutional?
“Gordon Brown orders courts to be fairer to householders”
Gordon Brown has sent out a clear message to Britain’s courts to be fairer and show more “mercy” to householders who confront burglars.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/lawandorder/7062845/Gordon-Brown-orders-courts-to-be-fairer-to-householders.html
BTW, nice bit of catch up….
423 I don’t even think that the inferences are true. I doubt if Cameron would regard a 50/50 split on his marriage policy as being at all bad
415 Like you, I can’t understand Archer’s appeal. I came away from the 1999 conference discussing with a friend what a walking time-bomb Archer was.
October 2008
“…ICM poll of 192 Labour held marginal constituencies where the Conservatives are in second place. The poll shows a swing of 11.5% in these seats, which according to ICM would equate to 164 Conservative gains and a majority of 78 seats.”
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1444
Here’s the ICM Poll stuff from the NOTW:
Ian Kirby
http://blogs.notw.co.uk/politics/2010/01/victory.html
And Fraser Nelson
http://blogs.notw.co.uk/politics/2010/01/nelsons-column-1.html
We’ve won. Labour can f*** off!
When we get in all child credits, child benefits and other payments to spongers will be stopped!!!
And Brett Ormerod is a fu****g cun*!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
403. Re Brown and emergencies. When the June 2007 West End bomb plot was discovered the staff at No. 10 forgot to wake Brown up in the middle of the night so they all had flying Nokias for breakfast. He’s a bit of an adrenaline-junkie, our Gordon.
408 - Jonathan. Having read that article (and many thanks for the link) it seems to me that Ken has spoken with his usual good sense.
I wholly agree with him on how the cuts should be tackled. Very interesting also is the fact that he has uncovered that 96% of the lending to busines has gone to firms located in Labour constituencies. That could be a big whammy for the Tories v Labour.
424 Roger
You should consider a flat swap with SeanT.
419. You weren’t trapped in a lift with him, were you?
My uncle got trapped on the QE2 with him, and felt like jumping overboard. Wrecked the whole bloody cruise…
415 Always wondered how a self proclaimed fan of Trollope like John Major could fail to see at least echoes of Augustus Melmotte in Jeffrey.
Though Labour more importantly failed to see the closer resemblance of Robert Maxwell to that fraud and danced around his table fawning for his support. Jeffrey hurt himself and a couple of others, Maxmell hurt thousands.
PS we are going to put vat up to 30% so unmarried mothers can swivvel!!!!!!!!!
Good evening PBers …. agree heartily with the consensus back slapping of young Mr Fear.
Meanwhile …. Chez Jack W has been adding to the waistline of a well connected Conservative for the day and amid much humour and juicy political gossip - a very naughty Labour minister (true, long suspect list) and a Lib Dem almost caught trouserless (Think Brian Rix farce) the most interesting news for PBers is that the Conservatives are pulling resources from almost two dozen seats and internal party polling isn’t quite as rosy as the published figures from our usual friends.
Confidence remains good but efforts are being more concerntrated on the win rather than the landslide.
There was also an almighty internal row over Cammo’s ‘Broken Britain’ speech. Originally the speech was much harsher in tone against Labour but wiser heads prevailed in ensuring that Dave wouldn’t be accussed of making cheap political points over the case.
ComRes press release is about as accurate and trustworthy as their polling was before the last major test of public opinion.
426. The only possible explanation I can think of, for this howlingly stupid error of judgment by ComRes, is that pollsters are really suffering in the recession (thanks to the decline of newspapers) so they are feeling deeply neurotic and panicked.
These paragraphs scream: ATTENTION SEEKING. Please NOTICE OUR POLL.
The trouble is Com Res have crossed the line, by several light years, and everything they do and say from now is thereby devalued, because they are seen as desperate, and therefore biddable.
Stupid. And that’s the most CHARITABLE explanation of that truly bizarre press release.
apologies if posted b4 Stephen Hesford Wirral West to stand down
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8477192.stm
431 Gabble
This ICM poll is of a ’safer-Labour’ subset.
“ICM’s sample covered the 97 seats where Labour are in first place and the Conservatives in second place, and where the Conservatives need a swing between 4% and 10%. The implied assumption is that seats with a majority of less than 4% are going to be Conservative gains anyway on the current national polls and not worth looking at “
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/2425
420 jsfl
I was picking up on Sir George Young’s quip in the HoC on Harriet Harman’s manifesto writing responsibilities. He phrased if better as the “hockey fields of St Pauls”.
402. In which case Sean you weren’t living in Soho in the 80’s. So enough of your bullshit
432. Yeah , the Tories are sweeping the marginals - NOT
“Elections expert Prof John Curtice, from the University of Strathclyde, says today’s poll indicates the Tories SHOULD be on course for the sort of landslide Tony Blair won 13 years ago but in reality they are unlikely to achieve such a huge victory.
He explained: “The Tories are hoping they’ll do better in these marginals than in the country as a whole. However, this poll says they’re doing the same as elsewhere in the country.”
For the past three years the Conservatives have been spending millions on campaigning in marginals. Yet just 28% of voters in those seats say they have seen any evidence of Tory doorstep campaigning, compared to 24% for Labour and 13% for the Lib Dems.”
415. SeanT January 23rd, 2010 at 9:40 pm
The point is some Labour folk are worse, they have just not been caught as yet and indeed the LD £2.4 Million donation is even worse!
Archer, made his money legitametly but his private life was toxic including the potential libel case he won. Labour on the other hand have equal bodies that will taint the Labour party, It is there they are being investigated and it will be worse, far worse than Archer!
Don’t know if this was posted:
“Tories enrage Labour with bid to save last hereditary peers in Lords”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6999919.ece
What a very confused government we have,
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/educationnews/7062061/Ministers-pull-the-plug-on-gifted-and-talented-academy.html
The idea of this was actually quite good, at first letting the unis run it, then they meddled, and now they have cut it. I saw it first hand (from a distance), where they got kids from a range of schools together for several day courses at some of the top unis.
Other than getting to do some interesting academic type stuff, meet new people from a variety of backgrounds, and stay at a uni with all its facilities, I think it sent a clear message to some of the brightest kids in state schools,
a) You aren’t alone, there are lots of other extremely clever kids out there. You aren’t some sort of social outcast freak if you actually really enjoy and excel in your studies.
b) Regardless of your background, if you have the brains and you get the exams results, the best universities do want you.
404.”And then on top of that, regularly between 1997, and Michael Howard becoming leader, our MPs would insist on forming a circular firing squad.”
Sean, totally agree with you. Despite the long years in opposition, some of our Westminster Parliamentary team never got the hang of it, or thought they should even sully themselves with the kind of hard graft involved. That was a very sad by product caused by more than a few of the remaining MP’s being in those in ultra safe seats.
432 Fraser Nelson seems to be taking Heffer’s place as Cameron’s number one critic on the right. No holding back.
445. Seth indeed I’d forgotten about that. Of course I was thinking of Prezza’s favourite pastime given his iron clad working class credentials……
SeanT
I am pleased to see you using your immunity from prosecution to beat both MODERATOR and Smithson over the head on the Com-Res press release.
There is a point beyond which “professional pollsters” deserve to lose their protection.
395. Yes I can recall Sean Fear being approvingly referenced by Labour and Lib Dem posters to support their theory that Cameron’s election would lead a collapse in the Tory party and a surge by UKIP (hollow laughter)
The ComRes press release crosses a line, but I think it’s less about political bias than a desperate attempt by the pollster to get noticed.
There’s a wriggle in the numbers, and they dramatise it absurdly in an attempt to suggest that their polls are picking up the groundswell of opinion among the public.
Utter bullsh*t but we’ve seen a lot of this lately - polling is getting a crowded field and competitive pressures are leading to a lot of what might be termed mis-selling.
444. Dave B
The October 2008 poll predicted a 78 seat tory majority. Tonight’s is predicting 38 seats.
It’s called swingback.
447 I doubt if the Conservatives would complain about an 8.5% swing, in such seats, at the general election.
449 Who cares if Labour are enraged?
427. Hmm. I have some very smart and charming friends who are completely amoral and prone to major fraud. i.e. they are just like Archer. Lovable rogues at best, complete sh1ts at worst.
I cherish them as friends, if only for their entertainment value, and cause they make me laugh, and cause I know I am not entirely unlike them… but boy, I wouldn’t make them milk monitor, let alone nominate them for the London mayoralty.
That was the mystifying thing about Archer. I am sure he is charming, and his parties are fun, but he was so obviously Arm’s Length, Handle With Care, Not Safe In Taxis. How could you possible promote him so highly?
Yet the Tories paid court to him for decades, and made him a significant figure. It was a stupid and egregious mistake.
456, no it isn’t. The marginal poll only includes Labour seats that are 4% or more away from the Tories. It doesn’t include near certain Labour losses or any Lib Dem gains at all.
You don’t think Gordo appearing to infer with the legal process has anything to do with this stat do you?
Burglary victims attacked in their own home once every 30 minutes
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1245417/Burglary-victims-attacked-home-30-minutes.html#ixzz0dTYv228C
Sky news - 2 former law officers will tell chilcot on tuesday that they told Tone and the boys the war was illegal without a second un resolution.
308
I should point out that’s Martin, if you hadn’t noticed he’s madder than a bucket of frogs, and he’s got a certificate to prove it: haven’t you dear!
456 40 seat decline in 15 months? On that rate of progress, Labour might have a chance of the Tories not having a majority if the election is held in October 2011.
Oh…..
440 hello Jack
Yes Ave it’s views is that the landslide isnt happening and its not helped by Camo going on about green things, IHT cuts, marriage allowances and not about the important things which are to CANCEL ALL LABOUR’S TAX RISES, stop handouts, and put VAT up to 25%!!!!
Progressive working class types like me are getting pyssed off! Unlike camo i wasnt born with a gold spoon and i want him to speak up about not taking my money away!!!!!
Con maximum 38% in the GE…
Shall I do a spot of MacGabble quoting?
“Darling said it was time for a change”
461 - Now, about “principled” Jack Straw
465 (cont) http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6999958.ece
437 RodCrosby
My uncle got trapped on the QE2 with him, and felt like jumping overboard. Wrecked the whole bloody cruise…
Are you sure you have the ship right?
Didn’t you mean the RMS Titanic?
Tory pressure over Edlington torture case report
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8476965.stm
Wait for Timmy Welcher screaming…5..4..3..2..1
Front Pages,
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/UK-News/Sundays-Papers—Newspaper-Front-Pages-Sunday-January-24-2010/Media-Gallery/201001415534381?lpos=UK_News_Left_Promo_Region_0&lid=GALLERY_15534381_Sundays_Papers_-_Newspaper_Front_Pages_Sunday_January_24%2C_2010
Sorry I cannot see anything wrong with the Comres Press Release . Bob Worcester of Mori has been making public comments on his polls for 30 odd years now . I suspect the screeching against it is from those who don’t like the meassage .
456 Gabble
“…if the swing revealed in today’s poll is repeated in areas where they are trying to unseat the Lib Dems, Cameron would walk into Downing Street with an 88-seat majority.”
Swingright.
http://blogs.notw.co.uk/politics/2010/01/victory.html
462 is that called the ‘coldstone’ certificate?
coldstone = ormerod
472. Not me, I am very fond of a good meassage. And not alone in that.
472 mark senior = spanner
463. MM It doesn’t include Con / LD marginals. What chance the Cons take 10-20 seats off the Libdems? Currently there is still a 5-6% swing from LD to Con?
Swingback is only a reality currently in the delusional minds of Labour / LD denialists…..
452 - Fraser’s article is pure tosh.A 38 Seat majority is more than adequate. Nelson is also hugely patronising about Cameron.
462. coldstone January 23rd, 2010 at 10:09 pm
Mr. Brown Does the Chancellor recall that when the interest rate decision was announced I said that the state of manufacturing and of investment was such that an interest rate cut had to be justified? Will he also explain why, four years into what he says is a recovery, 1150 manufacturing output in the last quarter of last year and the first quarter of this year was technically in recession, and why investment has never recovered during this “recovery”?
http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/commons/1996/jul/17/the-economy#S6CV0281P0_19960717_HOC_242
446. Er, yeah, I lived in central London all through. In the 80s I lived in Bloomsbury, Holborn, Fitzrovia, and Marylebone. In the 90s I lived in Islington and Fitzrovia.
Now I live in Camden - since Xmas. That’s a pretty fair spread.
Homelessness is no better or worse than it was 10 or 20 years ago. Drug abuse and drug dealing take place openly in central London - I see it regularly, and because of my background I know it for what it is.
Labour have achieved very little in their time in office, in this area - apart from a certain amount of dispersal, due to Asbos. As a bitter and personal example, I can say there were homeless people on Store Street W1 in 1997, when I moved in (before Blair came to power), there were homeless people on that street, in 2009, when I left.
Given the resources they poured in, and the promises they made, the achievements of this Labour government with regards to homelessness are footling. In fact this is the story of Labour overall.
Your post was a silly little lie. But then you were in advertising.
THE former head of the Army (General Sir Richard Dannatt) has turned down a top job in a Tory government - after being threatened with PROSECUTION, the News of the World can reveal.
http://www.newsoftheworld.co.uk/news/696889/Army-General-turns-down-Tory-post-after-prosecution-threat-General-Sir-Richard-Dannatt.html
News of the Screws, obvious warnings.
471 Mark Senior
Sorry I cannot see anything wrong with the Comres Press Release
Mr Senior, you are entitled to your own opinions.
It is fortunate for the rest of us that they almost without exception remain exclusively your own.
462. coldstone January 23rd, 2010 at 10:09 pm
I dont know why you have to be so negative - Labour have failed: Labour spokespeople in the guise of Gordon pre 1997 set the bench mark for reasonable opposition on the economy. If it was not reasonable why did they say it?
Oh dear. The Mail on Sunday headline is deeply worrying:
“Name the devil boys - we must not let them hide”
It’s really quite irresponsible.
432. There are several points Fraser Nelson misses.
1. The comparisson to Obama is ridiculous. Obama was elected on a tidal wave of euphria, hope and expectation. Cameron will not be. We did that Blair. It will be many years before the public invest such a huge amount in one man again. Obama could only dissapoint. Cam, if the cards fall nice for him, could be a pleasent surprise given the low expectations he’s going to be elected with.
2. He seems to think a majority of nearly 40 is somehow virtually ungovernable, yet this was the majority that Mrs Thatcher was elected with in 79 - And look at all that she achieved.
3. He also says Cams government could be defeated by just 20 rebels with such a majority. Indeed he could, but why would his backbenchers do that? Comparing to John Majors 92-97 government doesn’t work - A first term government, after a decade out of power, is a very differant animal to a fourth term government thats been on power for 18 years. Tory MP’s in the next parliament will be hungry and they will be eager for sucess and for a second term. I would expect near ultra loyalty for Cameron in the first term, particularly from the new intake, which will completely transform for the Tory Party as we have ever known it. As many of these talented and able people are brought through into government and deadwood like Caroline Spellman and Thersa May are cut adrift Camerons government will get stronger and stronger through the first term setting things up nicely for a truely transformative second term if (***IF***) they can get the economy on track in the first few years.
464 Ave it. You are an imposter sir !!!
No person of true ‘Ave It’ heritage would predict a mere 38% !!
475 Sorry Ave It , I see my old team the Tangerines did yours to a kipper today .
485
Jack W
Have you been receiving your cold weather payments
“Didn’t you mean the RMS Titanic?”
No, but they did sail over the Titanic’s grave and lay the wreath, as they do every April 20th.
Cunard took over the White Star Line in 1934…
471 I see nothing wrong, in the sense that Andrew Hawkins is fully entitled to make such comments if he wishes. It’s a free country.
There is, however, nothing objective about them.
ICM poll:
“Almost 80% say the Prime Minister is trying to do a good job under difficult circumstances.”
http://blogs.notw.co.uk/politics/2010/01/victory.html
Not the impression you’d get from this site.
Are you sure you know what’s going on?
472 Mark, Bob Worcester uses draws on comparisons of findings against previous findings, though I agree not always, which gives him a basis for his conclusions.
Andrew Sparrow makes inferences with one set of data. What if Comres had polled with identical questions two weeks ago? Would findings have been better or worse for Cameron? if 75% had hated tax relief for marriage a fortnight back and now its 50% then Cameron has momentum to his views, if the opposite then indeed his policy is in tatters.
But we don’t know, Comres doesn’t provide the data, Sparrow is putting a spin on what is there based on his own views.
Even on headline numbers - a move of 4% from Cons to others, reversing the last poll is within combined MoE for the two polls. Cons (as I think you pointed out back then) could have been on 40% in all last three Comres polls and variation is just sampling error.
483. I don’t think it’s irresponsible. The public has a right to know. These boys and their families forfeited a right to privacy when they dropped a sink on someone’s head.
Name them. This privacy crap is bollocks. And if you have to live a life of furtive shame thereafter, well, in future, don’t try and torture people to death.
“trying to do a good job under difficult circumstances”…..and failing!
re 470 several papers have swallowed Johnson’s fairy stories I see.
484 All those points are correct. What matters, from Cameron’s point of view, is that he should have more MPs than Labour and the Lib Dems combined.
If that is so, then in practice, his government won’t be defeated on any issues of confidence.
487 MTF. Has it been cold ??
489 There is nothing objective in 90% of the posts from the Tory herd on here but you still have the right to post them .
A snippet from Blackdog:
Lib Dem MP Greg Mulholland has tabled a Commons motion calling for coffee shops to be banned from using the word ‘regular’.
‘It is a meaningless description which creates confusion and is another example of the Americanisation of the English language,’ he froths.
‘They should use universally understood measurements like small, medium and large.’
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-1245573/BLACK-DOG-The-Tories-turn-guns-lazy-William-Hague-Ken-Clarke.html#ixzz0dTdVzjXl
Of course Greg Mulholland is very familiar with such matters being a member of the ‘Regular’ Party. How close his definition of regular is to the impression given by the Libdems.
490. Gab’s, I’ll tell you whats going on. People have reached the stage where they no longer hate Gordon Brown - Now they pity him and feel sorry for him, which is even worse for his electoral prospects.
I believe John Major went through a very similar situation in his final months in office when his personal rating also improved slightly and people started to feel more pity than hate for him and the Tories. Its not a good place to be for a party that wishes to govern.
re 490 but Gabble the problem is that he’s making a complete pig’s ear of it.
491. Kibble, One thing is sure you haven’t a clue whats going on.
484. GIN January 23rd, 2010 at 10:21 pm
Indeed, those who do not shape up as misters can be drafted to the Lords!
490. I think even I would agree, if asked, that Gordon Brown is “trying to do a good job under difficult circumstances”.
The thing is, I would add the rider that he is failing in his “attempt”, and the difficult circumstances are that he is an incompetent dithering arsehole who has totally buggered the country with his foolish deceit and vanity.
Nonetheless he is *trying* his best in these *difficult* circumstances.
lol
In fact one could argue the opposite, an astonishing 20% of people seem to believe Brown is actually not trying his best, i.e. he is a tra1tor who should be hung from the yard-arm.
490 Gabble
“Almost 80% say the Prime Minister is trying to do a good job under difficult circumstances.”
Very few even on pb.com would doubt that Brown is “trying”.
That is not the issue.
489 There is nothing objective in 90% of the posts made on here by Conservative supporters but you still have the right to post them .
Gin, aren’t you aware that Fraser Nelson is named after, and takes after, his maternal grandfather Private James Frazer of the Walmington on Sea Home Guard.
misters = ministers
490. I think even I would agree, if asked, that Gordon Brown is “trying to do a good job under difficult circumstances”.
The thing is, I would add the rider that he is failing in his “attempt”, and the difficult circumstances are that he is an incompetent dithering ar$ehole who has totally screwed the country with his foolish deceit and vanity.
Nonetheless he is *trying* his best in these *difficult* circumstances.
lol
In fact one could argue the opposite, an astonishing 20% of people seem to believe Brown is actually not trying his best, i.e. he is a tra1t0r who should be hung from the yard-arm.
re 492 indeed Sean T why not pull their fingernails out or try some of the other Tom Knox’s imaginings on them. Or perhaps we could draw and quarter them and stick their heads on a pike outside Doncaster town hall.
The insane ramblings of some on here beggars belief.
505. What would you know about it? There is never anything objective about your posts.
485 its going to be 38% unless Camo and Osbo go for real ‘Ave it’ style conservatism!! ie no green or facebook!!!
486 you just keep supporting the oranges pal - even tho you are a lemon!
504
mark senior is a strawberry (is that one of the 10%?!)
Whoopsydoo. Spamfiltered and modded, then double posted.
Tut tut. What is happening to pb, does the site need to be burped? It feels like it has trapped wind. Perhaps some Calpol is in order.
504. Mark Senior January 23rd, 2010 at 10:31 pm
Whats objective in your statements? You want local authority results to reflect the next GE when it is unlikely they will!
Do you really think solihull will return a Lib Dem MP? or someother seats held by LD but likely to be taken by Tories?
507 - Spot on SeanT. I would agree with that statement and I hate his f##kin guts!
In his crazed mind, he is right, everybody else is wrong, he saved the world once and will save Britain…If he didn’t give a s##t, why does he sit up 20 odd hours a day, working away, micro-managing as much as he possibly can. Simple, he thinks he is the only man that can do it in these challenging times and he is the chosen one to do. His whole life has been politics, politics, politics.
496
It must have been Jack W, My clients are getting it. I was just checking you hadn’t missed out
447 Rod, like you and Mark Senior, Prof John Curtice couldn’t say anything positive about the Conservatives if his life depended on it.
If David Cameron leads the Tories to winning 410 seats at the GE John Curtice would puff out his chest and proclaim that the Tories had failed because they had failed to win 222 British seats.
513 - Now Tony Blair on the other hand. How many f##kin holidays did he have? And then thought sticking Two Shags in charge was ok!
452.”432 Fraser Nelson seems to be taking Heffer’s place as Cameron’s number one critic on the right. No holding back.”
Punter, that Nelson rubbish is a definite keeper post GE. Absolutely priceless! I loved the bit where he asserted that the smaller the Tory majority the more trouble there would be for Cameron from the backbenchers, or that many were not interested in government. Has he got some private polling of our current Westminster bunch + all those hopeful PPC’s? Maybe he has been too busy chatting to all those retiring MP’s, and missed the rest who intend to stay on or hope to be elected? And as for the idea that Labour MP’s were uber loyal! Obviously missed the almost constant Labour rebellions through out the New Labour years, all done with the comfort of a large majorities!
I just cannot take his political pontificating serious these days.
Another Government cover up:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/7062059/Foreign-Office-covers-up-cost-of-ambassadors-parties.html
490. Eddie the Eagle tried his best, it didn’t make any difference!!
I do like to see seanT deploring attention-seeking, shy, timorous beastie that he is.
The finding that 80% think that Gordon is doing his best in difficult circumstances is interesting and helps explain the backlash over the Sun hatchet-job. It doesn’t mean that 80% think it’s good enough, but the loathing and contempt evident among some posters here isn’t typical, and when the Tories and their cheer-leaders assume that it is, they actively put people off.
Of course Brown is going to look after the middle classes:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/7061794/Government-considers-doubling-council-tax-on-second-homes.html
If that ICM press release is as described they are going to be in trouble with the MRS.
If no one else does it I think I might lodge an official complaint with the ethics committed. My membership is lapsed but I think members of the public can compain.
508. Simple answer: name the parents. They are the culprits.
Presumably all of Darlington knows who they are anyway, and a few minutes Googling would unearth the truth for everyone else, so this “privacy” is a liberal chimera.
Thinking of Gordon, remember his speech at Copenhagen when he proclaimed that Acts of God are actually Acts of Man with floods, droughts and storms the direct results of climate change?
Well it seems the Curse of Gordon even applies to the IPCC.
A column in the Times warns “it looks this weekend as though Glaciergate could be followed by Disastergate, Hurricanegate, Floodgate and Droughtgate. It is beginning to look as though the more alarming assertions published by the IPCC — that climate change is behind the increasing frequency of, and damage caused by, natural disasters — may not have been properly peer-reviewed.”
As someone who thinks the probability of AGW is high enough for concern I am increasingly concerned, as is the author of the piece, about the presentation of evidence and the conclusions being drawn.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/guest_contributors/article6999815.ece
494. “re 470 several papers have swallowed Johnson’s fairy stories I see.”
I wouldn’t call it a fairy story but it is so unspecific as to render public warnings almost worthless . The new European network that was found by the BND and is believed to be linked to the underpants bomber seems to have triggered warnings in about a dozen or more countries for similar attacks targeting aircraft by up to 20 clean skins. The women mentioned in the articles are also said to be potentially targeting the US and India.
Basically some people may target unknown airlines from an unknown country at an unknown date. How publicising the raising of the threat level helps I do not know. Measures could be taken on the quiet.
PLOT SPOILER
I have worked out how it ends:
The Asteroid Review Unit of the UEA fslsely reports that an asteroid will hit London on 6 May.
Gordon “good at emergencies” Brown agrees to intercept and nuke it. He and the Cabinet board the Space Shuttle as the band plays and Pres. Omaha salutes at Cape Canaveral. The UEA later report that the mission was successful but that the heroic GB selflessly blew himself up in the process of nuking it.
GB returns secretly to earth via a reverse man-cannon procedure and splashes down in the South Pacific where he ends his days in a Blofeldian undersea lair, rejoicing at his place in history as the man who saved the world twice, and never lost a General Election.
520 tee hee 15 weeks to go…
“Leaders want TV debate crowd to sit in SILENCE
(…)The PM wants the audience packed with almost twice as many Labour supporters as Tories, to reflect his Commons majority.
But furious Mr Cameron is insisting there should be more of his followers as he is well ahead in the polls”
http://www.newsoftheworld.co.uk/news/696655/Party-leaders-want-TV-debate-crowd-to-sit-in-SILENCE.html
520 - Strange how Gordo doesn’t go out and meet the public much, for somebody who isn’t really hated! School kids and Labour Party officials only! And his wife got booed this week at a luvvie event, for what, well can only think it is because who she is married to!
Lets see him on his soap box in the middle of high streets up and down the land (a la Major) and see how popular he is!
522 Blair - not ICM, Comres.
I’ve been out all evening but will be posting on the two polls within the next hour
Can someone repost 502&503 for me, PB.com won’t let me see them for some reason?
520. NPMP its pity now mate.
522. Its ComRes that have put out that statement NOT ICM. ICM are far too professional an outfit to show themselves up with a statement like that.
524. I;ve never been able to understand why warming would lead to more hurricanes and intense storms. Yes, as the oceans warm there is more energy in them, but shouldn’t that be compenstated by less cold in the northern latitudes and thus less energy between the polar and tropical air masses to create these storms?
508 Perhaps the truly bizarre Poenum Cullei would be appropriate, something which could feature in the next Tom Knox thriller.
Interesting to see Fraser Nelson has been added to the long, long pblist of people/groups “unfairly” critising St Dave of Millbank.
534 I mean Poena Cullei.
529. Unironically think that Brown should try the soapbox thing:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/onthisday/hi/dates/stories/march/30/newsid_3739000/3739176.stm
I mean, sure, he’d most likely embarrass himself, but if he wants to try the “Not Flash, Just Gordon” thing again, it’d be good.
re 525 glw you mean you think that it has the same provenance as “The document discloses that his military planning allows for some of the WMD to be ready within 45 minutes of an order to use them” or perhaps “The British government has learned that Saddam Hussein recently sought significant quantities of uranium from Africa.”
I suppose you can fool some of the people….
In response to several queries above about what threat levels actually mean and what impact they have - this is a brief overview:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UK_Threat_Levels
What it means in practice varies with the institution - e.g. Commons security (searches etc.) becomes more intense when the level is higher.
533. Because it is about generating alarmism, alarmism generates research grants.
One thing better then a very big problem, is a very big problem that can be fixed with dollops of cash.
535. Fraser’s free to say whatever he wishes. And We’re all free to agree or disagree with him as we choose.
537 - I can just see him doing it, and Martin Day hanging around at each one with giant posters of his photo-shopping efforts!
Tories beware, this isnt won yet.
Something is happening at the moment and its hardening the Labour vote. Whilst hardening the Labour core isnt enough swing voters can swing plenty and there are plenty of them out there still by the looks of it undecided. The Tories current have a big bloc consistently but the decision of the rest will either see a runaway success or Labour getting much much closer.
So far I suspect these people are trending Tory or undecided rather than going anywhere else, which is lucky. The Tories need to harden them up because they can slip.
539 Nick Palmer
Commons security (searches etc.) becomes more intense when the level is higher.
At what level does Chris Bryant get his underpants checked?
We really must be mad as a nation
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/lawandorder/7060947/Killer-cant-be-deported-because-he-might-kill-again.html
“An Iraqi immigrant who stabbed two doctors to death has won the right to stay in Britain after a judge ruled that he would pose a danger to the public in his homeland.”
“An immigration tribunal decided that Laith Alani, a paranoid schizophrenic, should not be deported to Iraq because it would breach his human rights and put people there at risk.
Do you remember this?
On the Week in Westminster this weekend - 8 minutes 30 seconds in - the presenter discusses a group of opinion pollsters who got together and “on average, they pointed to a hung parliament”. If this was the same group of pollsters I and other PB members listened to at a recent event (http://www.ncrm.ac.uk/TandE/events2010/0120/index.php) then my memory is slightly different. Rather than there was one speaker (out of about a dozen) who predicted a hung parliament with the Conservatives being the largest party whilst the others all predicted a Conservative victory by 5-10+%.
The reporting in the BBC show gave - I believe - a completely different slant on the opinion of the majority (the guy who predicted a hung parliament was received with audible gasps).
I believe OGH left shortly before this ending, but there were other PB members in attendance I believe.
535 it’s not his criticism but his pessimism (why I likened him to Private Frazer).
Fraser’s default position is always that Tories are doomed and that Brown/Balls/Mandelson has a winning strategem, or in this case that anything less than a hundered seat majority will mean Cameron is unable to act decisively.
535.Jonathan, where have you been? I have never been a fan of Nelson, and I have regularly criticised him on PB.com over the last couple of years. As for our other right leaning Scottish pundits in the media, I tend to ignore them even more when they start talking about Scottish politics. The nearer they get to the topic of the country of their birth, the more they fail to resonate with any picture I have of our political landscape up here.
520. Nick Palmer MP January 23rd, 2010 at 10:39 pm
I think you should know Nick:
That even those of us who hate Gordon Brown thought that it ( the war widow campaign)stretched things a little too far. I made the distinction as did others.
I still Hate Gordon Brown and thus Labour - I wish it would be killed at the next election. I dont seek to tie you in with Gordon and Labour and respect you despite your association - But Labour needs killing off and Gordon Brown is useless: If you helped put him in power you should suffer in terms of electoral defeat. Sorry mate but you did it - You live with the electoral outcome.
521
Where I live that would be be an extremely popular move, one village near here over half the homes are second homes.
As for Cornwall, I’d like to see the Tories oppose it.
532
Here you are Christina
502.490. I think even I would agree, if asked, that Gordon Brown is “trying to do a good job under difficult circumstances”.
The thing is, I would add the rider that he is failing in his “attempt”, and the difficult circumstances are that he is an incompetent dithering arsehole who has totally buggered the country with his foolish deceit and vanity.
Nonetheless he is *trying* his best in these *difficult* circumstances.
lol
In fact one could argue the opposite, an astonishing 20% of people seem to believe Brown is actually not trying his best, i.e. he is a tra1tor who should be hung from the yard-arm.
by SeanT January 23rd, 2010 at 10:31 pm
503.490 Gabble
“Almost 80% say the Prime Minister is trying to do a good job under difficult circumstances.”
Very few even on pb.com would doubt that Brown is “trying”.
That is not the issue.
by Seth O. Logue January 23rd, 2010 at 10:31 pm
O/T - A food factory manager was incharge of Doncaster Child Services who had no experience of social work….
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6999961.ece
The Conservatives are right to ask for more details of the review to be published, this story will run & run.
oops. Apologies to ICM
http://www.mrs.org.uk/standards/downloads/code%202010.pdf
B49 Members must ensure that conclusions disseminated by them are clearly and adequately supported by the data.
B57 Members must ensure that when interpreting data they make clear which data they are using to support their interpretation.
B59 Members must take reasonable steps to check and where necessary amend any Client -prepared materials prior to publication to ensure that the published results will not be incorrectly or misleadingly reported.
Comment: This means that Members are expected to take reasonable steps to ensure that any press releases include either final report details (including question wording for any questions quoted) or details of where the information can be obtained (e.g. via a website link).
B61 If Members are aware, or ought reasonably to be aware, that findings from a project have been incorrectly or misleadingly reported by a Client he/she must at the earliest opportunity:
refuse permission for the Client to use their name further in connection with the incorrect or misleading published findings; and
publish in an appropriate forum the relevant technical details of the project to correct any incorrect or misleading reporting.B61 If Members are aware, or ought reasonably to be aware, that findings from a project have been incorrectly or misleadingly reported by a Client he/she must at the earliest opportunity:
refuse permission for the Client to use their name further in connection with the incorrect or misleading published findings; and
publish in an appropriate forum the relevant technical details of the project to correct any incorrect or misleading reporting.
B61 If Members are aware, or ought reasonably to be aware, that findings from a project have been incorrectly or misleadingly reported by a Client he/she must at the earliest opportunity:
refuse permission for the Client to use their name further in connection with the incorrect or misleading published findings; and
publish in an appropriate forum the relevant technical details of the project to correct any incorrect or misleading reporting.
528 No way these debates are going to happen - the game is going to be Gordon trying to land the Tories with the blame for them not happening.
545 Stories like that are depressing. They are signs of a society that has become truly decadent.
543. Yokel, nothing is ever won until the final vote is counted and Cameron has his majority. However, I can’t for the life if me seeing the next government being anything other than a Conservative one. But if it isn’t Tory then so be it, that will be the will of the people.
521
FISHERMEN at one of Cornwall’s prettiest creeks say their livelihood is being threatened by a village society dominated by second-home owners who are blocking plans for a vital new jetty.
The fishermen at Helford, near Helston, want a modern jetty and access road to be handle their produce – which goes to some of the top restaurants in the county.
Although plans were approved by Kerrier Council two years ago, the scheme has been put on hold after members of the Helford Village Society forced a judicial review.
For more than five years, frustrated fisherman Chris Bean has been heading attempts to build a jetty in the little creek on the Helford River.
In a BBC documentary as part of the Inside Out series to be broadcast tonight, he spoke of his anger.
“This is virtually the last landing site in the UK for fish without proper landing facilities,” he said.
“There’s a million pounds worth of fish goes across this beach every year.
“It’s easily a viable proposition.”
Cornwall is one of the second homes hot spots of Britain with about 1 in 20 properties used as holiday home – some 13,000 in all.
In some places, such as Mousehole in West Cornwall or Manaccan on The Lizard, second homes represent 75 per cent of properties, a situation which has been blamed for creating “winter ghost towns”, forcing house prices beyond the reach of local people and placing services like primary schools in jeopardy.
About 50 of Helford’s 80 properties are unoccupied for most of the year.
The Helford Village Society is the main source of opposition to the scheme.
Kerrier District Council received 170 letters of objection, with several people sending letters both from their Helford and main properties.
Whichever way the judicial review goes, defending its decision is likely to cost Kerrier Council hundreds of thousands of pounds – a cost which may be passed on to local council tax payers.
Nick Jacobs, who has had a second home in Helford for more than 30 years, was one of the few homeowners prepared to speak about the subject.
From his office in Mayfair, London, where he runs an asset management company, he told Inside Out: “It’s a beautiful, special spot. Do I want to see a new road along the seashore?
“Do I want to see a new car park there? Do I want to see industrial use there, with a lot of concrete, vehicles parked, that sort of thing? No. Helford is a proper balanced community.
“There are a lot of second homes but those places are rented out. It’s an industry, it’s called tourism and it supports local people and for it to be portrayed as a bunch of wealthy, disinterested, distant people is very, very unfair.”
Kerrier district and Cornwall county councillor Pam Lyne has been delivering milk in Helford for 50 years but, as the rate of second-home owners has grown, her customers have shrunk in numbers to just a handful.
She said the new jetty was a good idea. “Most of the objections are from people who only come here for short periods of time,” she said.
“They do not actually live in the village. It is not their place of residence, it is their holiday home.”
Mr Bean said the village society was scaremongering.
He added: “It’s been grossly exaggerated. The trackway that will give access to the quay follows the shoreline.
“It’ll be a foot or two high, tucked in right under the bank and it’ll be faced up with local stone with little granite kerbing on the top.
“It’ll weather in, kelp will grow on the front of it and in a year or two, you wouldn’t know it was there.”
Go one Tories oppose it.
543. “Something is happening at the moment and its hardening the Labour vote. Whilst hardening the Labour core isnt enough swing voters can swing plenty and there are plenty of them out there still by the looks of it undecided”
I assume the certainty to vote amongst members of Labour’s client state has gone up as the prospect of losing the goose that lays the golden eggs approaches.
Or as Nick Palmer would say, “Guardianistas and working class voters are noticing the divisive rhetoric and policy confusion of the Tories. And as for Conservatives for Palmer? Membership is at an all time high!”
554.Mark, absolutely correct.
539. It looks a nonsense Nick. Everyone knows where this alert level rise is coming from, jihadists on web forums probably chatting about this Afghanistan conference and such things as threats in India etc.
If there was a truly understood and reasonably solid threat that could be tagged to the UK, this alert wouldnt rise at all, theyd be busy dealing with it quietly.
Based on experience in NI, ‘threat on’ alerts within the security forces were common. Little of that reached the public because a) it was too vague to alert anyone or b) it was specific enough that you didnt want to alert the public, you were too busy taking countermeasures without fanfare.
They really need to look at this system. Also the people who need to make this call are the Home Office but whoever has the ultimate co-ordinating role on Intelligence. Take it away from the politicians.
478. Martin Day:
“Mr. Brown Does the Chancellor recall that when the interest rate decision was announced I said that the state of manufacturing and of investment was such that an interest rate cut had to be justified? Will he also explain why, four years into what he says is a recovery, manufacturing output in the last quarter of last year and the first quarter of this year was technically in recession, and why investment has never recovered during this “recovery”?
http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/commons/1996/jul/17/the-economy#S6CV0281P0_19960717_HOC_242”
Has Brown always been a liar when it comes to statistics?
From the ONS - Manufacturing output:
1995Q3 95.8
1995Q4 96.0
1996Q1 96.2
Whats happening is:
- Labour core sponger/unmarried mother/handout vote is now fairly solid and it is unlikely that labour will get less than 31%
- Camo is not going down with younger progressive working class types (ie me 20 years ago) who have no money and dont see camo’s policy of giving money to wealthy types via IHT rather than the necessary cuts in direct taxation as helping them!
- older progressive working class types like me want to see the sponger unmarried mother types hammered and kept on a subsistence lifestyle and so I can keep what I earn - Camo isnt saying that either!!!
- this is why the campaign is a balls up at the moment!!!
Regarding ComRes’s “press release” - Andrew Hawkins released the Sunday Mirror article verbatim.
So the reason it reads like a Labour supporting tabloid newspaper rather than a non-partisan pollster, is because it is a Labour supporting tabloid newspaper and not an non-partisan pollster. LabourList were wrong to ascribe the words to Andrew Hawkins, since they were in fact from Vincent Moss.
Compare and contrast here:
Vincent Moss in the Sunday Mirror
“Andrew Hawkins” quoted on LabourList
Colsdstone,
How would doubling council tax on second homes change the situation for the better?
Do you think that the £405 road tax deters rich people from buying big cars?
555. Yep, the Chinese would just execute him, and f*ck his human rights. And, you know what, China feels safer than Britain. And funkier.
We are in a near terminal decline.
And on that upbeat note I am going to say a bientot. I am a third of the way through my thriller, and tomorrow I must rescue hero from a cruel Cambodian autocrat with lobotomised minions.
This needs all my energy. SawadeeZzzz.
539. “What it means in practice varies with the institution - e.g. Commons security (searches etc.) becomes more intense when the level is higher.”
And less intense when it is lower? So an unknown terrorist cell would know when it is a good time to attack. I hope that the relevant authorities aren’t actually doing that, and instead have a counter-terrorism disinformation and diversion operation running, where the public levels don’t reflect activity. i.e. Mindf*ck.
why dont we double council tax on unmarried mothers and make them sweep the streets and pick up litter to pay it?!!!!
563. Thanks for clearing that up Anthony. I thought it was unlikely that any opllster would wish to be release such dubious comments.
560.Yokel, does a Home Secretary popping up to make a statement on a raised alert on a Friday night divert, oops, heighten the media attention in your opinion? And do you think its a very helpful way of conveying the message in the way that the security forces would like, or is it more a political move?
coldstone, you do realise as an incomer you are despised by the locals don’t you?
you can pontificate as much as you want but you are still seen as an incomer who has stolen a home that should have gone to a local.
563 Anthony
Thanks… it’s good to know.
Labourlist should be ashamed of themselves, spinning things that way. They are basically besmirching the reputation of a pollster.
458 Regarding Jeffrey Archer: It sounds as though he gave jolly good parties, greeting guests with a glass of champagne and the line ‘Is Krug good enough for you?’ (to which, of course, the only possible response is ‘Which vintage?’)
561. another richard January 23rd, 2010 at 11:02 pm
The point being Gorden Brown claimed for partisan reasons that recover had not happened four years into a recovery. Under Gordon Brown manufacturing slumped.
Why should any figures for one Quarter be a signal of growth when Gorden Brown claimed 4 years of Growth were recesion
Especially given Labours neglect of manufacturing/industrial production post 1997 
543 Yokel
I agree 100 % with what you just wrote about the Tory lead slipping. I think the Tory lead has always been a bit soft, and i think as we approach the INEVITABILITY of a general election, people start to make some very HARD choices, ie they cleave to what THEY want in THEIR lives, and the issue of them and us comes back into play.
And this is where the early work of New Labour really starts to kick in. Since 1997, the Labour party has basically created a client state for themselves, namely people who are now of voting age (and by the way, the longer GB leaves the election, the more 18 year olds come onto the voting register, hence June is still a real possibility) and who quite literally owe their entire existence to the Labour party (benefits, housing, outlook, etc etc).
For these people to vote Tory, which they could do if they were feeling adventurous, would require a leap of faith.
I’m not saying that they won’t vote Tory, but the idea that ALL of them will fancy a change just for the sake of it, is itself fanciful. I would suggest that at least a third of them will cleave back to New Labour.
The real question is the point of critical mass. Is one third the point of critical mass? If it is, then the Tories need to ready with counter-arguments which will reassure these people that if elected, their lives will not be unduly affected.
But if they get one whiff that the Tories are not 100% on their side, then the Tory lead could quite easily evaporate altogether, and then as some journalists have already suggested, the electorate as a whole wil plump for the devil they know rather than the unknown.
My advice to the Tories is to be ABSOLUTELY CONCRETE in their election manifesto. If they want to go back to being a traditional Conservative party, they should do it by increments. Start off as blue Labour with concrete proposals not too dissimilar to the Labour party, just a little better. Then, if they win the election, gradually toughen up their policies over several years, and come the next election, the country might be in much better shape, and they will win again but this time with traditional Tory policies.
But as Yokel has already implied, its getting into Downing Street which is the biggest hurdle. Once there, no sweat.
574 top post - backs up what i have been saying!
We can win on 37-33
Even if we only have a majority of 5 we can do what we like - and at the following GE the british people will thanks us for it with a majority of 300!!!
We are talking about one poll, the marginals poll is far more important.
FPT - long time ago - 314 I think - if you’d have posted the name of the article writer as being Matthew Continetti, the man who wrote ‘The Persecution of Sarah Palin, How the Elite Media Tried to Bring Down a Rising Star’ (sic) then I would have known without reading it that it was going to be going down completely the wrong trail.
Ave it
Exactly right.
569. We dont know, thats the problem. Realistically I think that if the threat level was raised and the final call was a political one then that kind of news would leak out that it was a call that didnt reflect the advice.
Even if the JTAC lads at Thames Houses made the annoucements rather than politcians they also have motivations and pressures but from general point of view it woudl look better.
I personally dont buy the system at all. Those who need to know can be told if there is an increased threat.
Thanks Anthony. Delighted to see this is not a ComRes press release. LabourList is much improved under Alex and I hope this is not a sign of their standards slipping…
Don’t do as I do, Do as I say
Harriet Harman’s husband Jack Dromey may benefit from feminist retreat
An outspoken advocate of all-women shortlists, Harriet Harman may, however, be pleased to hear that one Labour Party association has rejected the feminist advance. Mandrake understands that Leyton and Wanstead, in east London, has decided to allow men to be considered as candidates for the general election.
Harman’s husband, Jack Dromey, the trade union boss, has been linked to the vacancy for the Labour-held seat.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/labour/7063008/Harriet-Harmans-husband-Jack-Dromey-may-benefit-from-feminist-retreat.html
547 YingTong Etc @ 23:12
What you seem to be saying is that the Conservative Party should present themselves under a false prospectus so that they can gain power.
I think I can understand the logic of your argument, but seting up a relationship on the basis of a lie is morally and ethically bad and will doom the relationship to failure.
The Country has suffered enough from politicans who lie and cheat and who will say anything to anyone in order to obtain and keep power. I would prefer Labour to be relected than have a new government on the basis of a lie.
Wow, Fraser Nelson’s NOTW article on the ICM poll includes a little bombshell which I don’t think people have flagged up:
Problem is that Clegg may well have no more than 30 LibDem MPs to lead. Our poll suggests he’ll end up with just 28 (down from today’s 67).</i?
579 Yokel
Threat levels are a government equivalent of professional indemnity insurance. Claims are settled not in financial damages but reduced public perception of culpability.
582
I agree with your sentiments about the need for honesty from politicians, but equally you cannot expect politicians to go into an election with a manifesto which basically says to Labours client state : “You are all fat, lazy and stupid, but vote for us and we will make you slim, hard working and well educated”.
i don’t think a message like that would go down too well at the ballot box.
This election will all be about ’slowly slowly catchy monkey’. Even if it does require the odd white lie.
583 - Fancy a bet that Fraser Nelson is wrong (on everything) but specifically on that nonsense?
“2. He seems to think a majority of nearly 40 is somehow virtually ungovernable, yet this was the majority that Mrs Thatcher was elected with in 79 - And look at all that she achieved.”
Until the Falklands and the SDP split it was achieving nothing less than running the conservative poll ratings into the gutter. If Cameron doesn’t have that sort of luck then he’s going to find it tough.
O/T - With IE this site is a nightmare at the moment, tried it again but back to Firefox, has the problem been tracked down yet?
583. How can he say that on the basis of a poll in Lab-Con marginals?
583 Richard Nabavi
I thought only the 97 Lab-Con marginals needing a swing to the Tories between 4% and 10% were polled.
Is Fraser assuming the same swings to the Tories will occur in the unpolled LD-Con marginals?
Much as I would like this assumption to be true, I fear it gives Mark Senior too much cause to object.
584. Of course and the intelligence pros have this issue hanging over them. Thje question is who makes the call and who announces:
Intelligence is often vague but the concern is that its not even directly related for example:
-Some spotty youths from London posting that soon the city will be in smoke can be enough to set off the alarms.
-Global issues such as more specific threats elsewhere in the world.
-Certain events that are high publicity and thus considered a desirable terrorist target
Friom where Im sitting none of the above are enough to raise a threat level but for all we know its things like this that are driving decisions.
We are not even getting into actual ground monitoring such as increased meeting of players or for example reports that women of western origin may be the next jihadists sent out to try to blow something up and that something is in planning stage. Such more aware or direct relation information ius unlikely to go public which discredits the current system even more.
“Nervous Tony Blair works till 3am to prepare for Chilcot grilling”
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1245614/Nervous-Blair-works-till-3am-prepare-Chilcot-grilling.html
571/580: Don’t blame LabourList for it too much! Andrew Hawkins mailed out the article, but didn’t label it as being the Sunday Mirror’s report, so you can see why they assumed it was his own take.
I suspected it might be that, just because it sounded more like a newspaper’s take on it than a pollsters, Andrew wouldn’t have quoted himself, and it isn’t the sort of thing he would normally write - but I didn’t know for sure until the Sunday Mirror put the article up themselves.