Why’s this been pulled from the SkyNews paper review?
January 31st, 2010
Is Number 10 trying to contain the Rawnsley damage?
Late last night the above front page figured prominently in the SkyNews review of the papers which is available online. A couple of hours later. as reported on the last thread, PBers linking to Sky found that the Mail on Sunday’s story had been taken down - see here.
Fortunately I had done a screen grab of the SkyNews paper review at 10.34 pm before that happened and that is what I reproduce above.
So what’s happened? Has there been a big operation to limit the damage from the story which reports that a new book by Andrew Rawnsley is going to make sensational claims that “Gordon Brown has physically attacked his staff in a series of outbursts in Downing Street - and once in America ….”?
Whatever the veracity of the allegations they are the last thing that the beleaguered PM needs in the run-up to a crucial general election - and who could blame his team from doing everything possible to limit their impact?
Brown Central’s influence does not seem to extend to the PoliticsHome site where, as at 0620 the front page was still featured. I doubt, also, whether it has impeded distribution of the printed version of the paper.
This is from the paper’s report: “Well-placed sources say the Prime Minister has been accused of hitting a senior adviser, pulling a secretary out of her chair and hurling foul-mouthed abuse at aides while distraught over an alleged snub by President Barack Obama.
The claims, which are fiercely denied by Mr Brown’s allies, are linked to a new book about Mr Brown by respected political journalist Andrew Rawnsley.
In researching the book, The End Of The Party, due to be published on March 1, Mr Rawnsley has investigated allegations that Mr Brown flew into a number of wild rages since he succeeded Tony Blair as Prime Minister. The publishers say his accounts are so detailed that readers will think he has ‘bugs in the vases at No10′.”
One of the problems with Brown’s style of politics is that you can make a lot of enemies on the way and often people don’t forget. The massive danger for Labour is that rightly or wrongly Brown’s character could develop into an election issue. The more there is to fuel it the worse it can get.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
Sky & Beeb not showing covers on TV reviews either
Lawyers.
Feud ‘cost Labour Holyrood election’
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/scotland/article7009801.ece
“Gordon Brown - Five More Years!” (of a bullying loon heading our government)
The diaries of this short - yet spectacularly disastrous - period of our political history will make fascinating reading. What were Labour thinking? What are Labour thinking?
If publicity for the story is going to get anywhere, this is one for the blogosphere.
4. “There were quite clear disagreements over how exactly the campaign should be run, with Jack wanting to run a very sort of Scotland first campaign, which is essentially what he did. You need to have a UK dimension in that campaign, otherwise in a sense you are fighting the SNP on their turf.”
On that point it sounds like it’s Watt that just didn’t “get it”, not Jack McConnell.
Behold the power of PB: Paddy Power have shortened their odds on Katy Clark holding her seat.
Bookies’ best prices - North Ayrshire & Arran
Lab 1/7 (from 1/5) PP
Con 12/1 Lad
SNP 12/1 Lad
LD 100/1 Lad
Antifrank will be pleased.
Don’t go for a walk in the woods today, Mike.
‘Labour in poll rise as Tories slip’
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/top-stories/2010/01/31/labour-in-poll-rise-as-tories-slip-115875-22007739/
Labour still has the power to hurt news organisations and individual journalists. Fraser Nelson was all over the TV screen during the Snow Rebellion saying Labour would not recover from that and Peter Watts’ revelations.
Last week his Lobby Pass was removed on a trivial matter, so now the Editor of the Spectator cannot get access to government Lobby briefings.
We imagine we live in a democracy. Think again. The government controls the media with threat, punishment and reward. Sky could be threatened with any number of things - football TV rights being removed, for example.
Good to that Sky and the BBC are taking bullying in the workplace seriously.
Perhaps they were warned by No 10 that “any complaints will be dealt with in the usual manner”.
Time to remind ourselves of Stephen Crabb’s question to Gordon Brown in PMQs on May 6th 2009. Follow me to the clunking fist.
10 Stuart Dickson. To pick on Tim(likes zebras) recurring theme, a ’slump of four points’ is a bit ridiculous. The polls are all within MoE for 41/28/19 (save Angus Reid for Labour). If tomorrow there’s another poll showing 42/27/20, how would the Mirror run that? MoE methinks.
12 Correction
Embedded link didn’t work. Use link below.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H7dEDhcNs_c
13. TimI
Indeed.
But it is interesting to see the nonsense newspapers publish about polls.
I actually welcome the Mirror’s distortions. It means that an awful lot of Labour supporters will be getting their hopes up. Which means that their spirit will be utterly crushed by the coming thrashing.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article7009745.ece
“Gordon Brown: I will go on and on”
Posted on last thread i know but still…it’s like a horror film.
Queenie McDoom is ~drum roll~ Freddy Kruger
Here is another example of mis-reporting of polls, by Labour uber-stooge Eddie Barnes in today’s SoS:
‘Polls hint at prospect of hung parliament’
http://news.scotsman.com/uk/Polls-hint-at-prospect-of.6029536.jp
Keep up the good work chumps!
Perhaps because it’s gossip and tittle tattle and Sky thought they owed it to their viewers to offer something less infantile than that which they would expect on Guido?
OT. I’m sure it’s not a coincidence that Labour’s performance has improved so markedly since the Mandy/Campbell combo reformed. The fat lady hasn’t even gargled.
FPT
Leading Article in the Times, refers to yesterdays yougov and the dangers for Cameron.
“Yet something has changed the political weather. A YouGov poll yesterday put the Tory lead on just seven points, within hung parliament territory, and only half the 13-14 point leads the party was enjoying with the same polling organisation last month. It may be that despite the desperately disappointing official figures, Labour is benefiting from the gradual return of economic optimism. It may also be that the Tories are suffering from the other interpretation of the 0.1% GDP rise, that the economy is too vulnerable for aggressive Tory spending cuts. A good Conservative line of attack, that the prime minister’s mismanagement of the economy left Britain without the scope to introduce genuine recession-fighting measures and the weak figures are the consequence, is rarely heard. In its place has been austerity; a Tory government would immediately begin the task of cutting spending to appease the rating agencies and the markets, whatever the state of the economy.”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/leading_article/article7009652.ece
by Kristin January 31st, 2010 at 3:00 am
Ladbrokes - Ochil & South Perthshire (incumbent: Gordon Banks, Lab maj over SNP = 688)
SNP 4/9
Con 3/1
Lab 4/1
LD 100/1
20 has there been a boundary change there Stuart ?
‘Call for Blair to face trial in Scotland’
http://news.scotsman.com/news/Call-for-Blair-to-face.6029526.jp
Sometime in October 2007, just after the Election-That-Never-Was was cancelled I went on one of those Management Development Programs. I suppose it was fairly high powered and we got to go to Brussels, meet a UK PermSec [from Defra - I asked him just how badly he had to screw up farm subsidy payments until he got sacked - shortly afterwards he 'moved' to the DTI] and visit Downing Street.
I get to meet quite a lot of civil servants in my line of work and I guess that you have an expectation that to work at No 10, you’ve got to be the cream of the cream.
But that’s not how it was.
We were first introduced to the ‘Deputy Chief of Staff’, a rather pasty-faced lad of about 28 from Glasgow. Somebody had been paying off a Political Debt. It was clearly a case of fixing ‘wee Johnnie’ some work experience in London and by some crass accident, he ended up in a position of responsibility at the heart of Government despite being completely clueless.
But I digress. It was the day that the whole chip-in-bin technology story broke. You know, the one where the Government was going to weigh all the bins with a sensor on the dustcart and charge you more if you disposed of more than 234kgs/waste/head/year.
By coincidence, it was also something that I had a hand in stirring-up from the other side of the fence. Here in Norfolk, we didn’t much like the Government’s chips-in-bins. So we turned them off. Some months later, the Mail characterised it as ‘The Chip and Bin Disaster’. You might remember it.
So, knowing a fair bit about this I was amazed to see the whole No10 operation fixated upon a low-key operational decision taken by a small district council in Norfolk. People were coming in and out ‘to speak to Him’ and worrying about all the different aspects of the story, especially the media. So much for Strategic Thinking.
And in the middle of the melee was the PM’s diary secretary, on secondment we learned from the Dept of Transport. Rather memorably she had a row of huge diamond rings that encrusted the entire fourth finger of her left hand.
I guess, she was the one who had the Nokia chucked at her. A high class girl subjected to a low-rent mob with no idea about how to Govern or to direct.
I rather enjoyed myself but had seen at first hand that No 10 was totally dysfunctional. So I can totally believe Rawnsley’s story. It’s amazing that it’s taken so long to come out. But like the proverbial drunk in the pub to goes to the little boy’s room after his fifth pint, this one’s broken the seal. There will be more.
The Economic News isn’t going to get any better. And now it seems, neither is the PM’s reputation either. Teflon Tony’s seen to that.
Bunnco - Your Man On The Spot.
21. Kristin
No. There are zero boundary changes in Scotland. UK GE 2010 will be fought on exactly the same boundaries as UK GE 2005, in our 59 seats.
15 Stuart. Indeed, complacency would be a killer for the Tories and SNP. I’m hoping they both do well. I’m a Unionist at heart, but I think the cause of unity is best served not by shouting down devolution or even independence. A strong SNP showing might help reach sooner a new and more stable relationship between Scotland and the other parts of the Union that better suits the good people of Scotland.
Audit Com, the Conservative Party and anti Tory lobby firm all share the same building - should make for interesting encounters in the lift
http://twitter.com/EricPickles
24 - doh, yes I knew that, no sleep I’m afraid.
Anyway, Labour 3rd place! Jings.
13 TimT
Did you get to eat a Pastilla (pigeon breast layered in filo pastry pancakes) whilst in Morocco?
On the recent polls, the work done by Another Richard and jsfl [see previous threads] has shown that MORI and YouGov are likely to have overstated the Labour share of vote due to inconsistencies in sampling when compared to the previous reference poll.
Once adjusted for the inconsistencies, both MORI and YouGov fall in line with Angus Reid in so far as they show little change from the previous month’s poll. Indeed, Another Richard’s correction of MORI’s figures when run through Wells predicted a 108 Tory majority.
Whether the sampling inconsistencies are accidental or deliberate is not something which I want to adjudge. Suffice it to say that the “hung parliament” narrative is what the media seems to want to buy at this stage of the GE campaign.
Give it an hour or so and we will have tim online asserting that the “narrowing of the gap” is due to “declining approval ratings” of David Cameron.
Unlike the Moroccan Pastilla, tim’s dish is a pancake of puff pastry interleaved with layers of pigeon sh*t.
I have been tuning into the BBC News on TV and R5 and so far do not recall any mention of this Brown story. The BBC seem to be only interested in the John Terry stuff in the papers.
All it needs is for 1 witness to break cover.
25. TimT
Good to see you being so positive about ‘The Scotland Question’.
However, I honestly do think that any Unionist optimism on this point is misplaced.
The Union is a goner. It is now simply a matter of when, not if.
8 - antifrank may well be responsible.
Bookies’ best prices - Australian Open - Mens Final
Federer 8/13 /several bookies)
Murray 31/18 (bwin.com)
31.
Yes, I suspected as much!
What is it about male political leaders that they rant at officials while in their underwear? Cannot imagine that Margaret Thatcher, dressed only in bra and panties, called in her staff for handbagging , yet there are references to Tony Blair in his y fronts and now Gordon, in a state of undress, doing so.
Of course Winston Churchill seemingly ran the country from his bed, in silk dressing gown and on occasions, reportedly, from his bath, so its not new.
P.S Hope the Scots Nats haven’t seen the pre-match piccies of Andy Murray…
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/sport/tennis/article7009964.ece
My understanding of the Guardian allegations and the law is that two of them, at least, constitute assaults. Certainly people have been investigated on less evidence. I wonder whether there should be a full police investgation, into this and all other stories of Brown’s abusive behaviour towards his staff.
Surely the bigger question is whether Number 10 can stop publication of the book. If not, March is going to be dominated by it.
Roger Federer v Andy Murray - First Set Winner
Federer 8/11 (StanJames, Coral, BetFred)
Murray 5/4 (SportingBet)
22. Something ironic that the Dutch judges concluded “that the United Nations resolution used to go to war in 2003 was insufficient to justify military action”
After their less than heroic performance under UN colours in srebrenitsa you’d have expected them to be the last country rushing to judgement.
I was against the Iraq invasion and went on the 1.000.000 strong march but the more I hear from fellow opponents of the invasion the less I am convinced that I was on the right side.
The lead story in the Sunday Times is important for the Betfair leader exit date. Those betting on an April-June 2010 exit may wish to consider this paragraph especially carefully:
“The prime minister is also understood to be privately opposed to Harriet Harman, his deputy, becoming a “caretaker” leader during any contest, as Margaret Beckett did in 1994 after the death of John Smith.”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article7009745.ece
That doesn’t appear to be the only thing dropped from the paper review. Sophie Raworth is standing in for Andrew Marr today - I was looking forward to Marr chairing a discussion about John Terry and whether someone in the public eye should take out a superinjunction to prevent details of their private life becoming known.
Every three months or so we have had an attempted “coup”, with great anger expressed from Labour Party loyalists at the damage such half-cock efforts have to their party - the Hoon/Hewitt one most obviously since by any political convention the whole thing was ludicrous if it wasn’t absolutely assured of success.
I do sometimes wonder if there are a reasonable number of senior people in the government for whom the worst outcome is a Brown victory. Because of stories like the subject of the thread. Just as in the recent “Thick of It” a load of ministers who give every impression of hating their jobs (because of the sh*t they have to put up from above) but need to stick it out if they have long term political ambition.
Here’s comes the denial..
Publishers Viking claim the book is “packed with astonishing revelations.” However, a source close to Mr Brown pointed to author Rawnsley’s close links to allies of Tony Blair, with whom Mr Brown had many angry clashes.
He added: “You have to wonder what the motivations of some of these people are.”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/gordon-brown/7114834/No-10-denies-claims-Gordon-Brown-attacked-staff.html
Payback for Chilcot ?
40 - Shades of John Leslie discussing the Ulrike Johnsson rape claims with Max Clifford on GMTV.
42 - If the claims are untrue then they sound very libellous. Post election Brown wouldn’t be constrained by the convention that politicians rarely sue.
test
Is anyone else experiencing Firefox crashing every time you post a comment?
Seth The trip’s been put back to the 15th of Feb, so still looking forward to it. I have a full day’s meetings on Saturday, but should be free most of Sunday, and will probably tack on a day or two for sight seeing. May also have a meeting tagged on in Rabat.
I’ll let you know how it goes.
April I have a trip to Ljubljana. First time in Slovenia for me. Have you been? Any tips?
It’s 3am, time for bed. 6″ of fresh powder snow on the ground over frozen mud. 14F (-10c) Hoping Tetouan will be a pleasant change of weather.
For Ted:
http://images.newstatesman.com/articles/2009/1050/20090625_2509murray-flag_w.jpg
http://northbritain.files.wordpress.com/2008/07/andy-murray-with-saltire.jpg
http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/41836000/jpg/_41836096_murray_getty300.jpg
http://www.johnstonesmoans.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/08/andy-murray-marseille08.jpg
Ernst Rohm and the SA were renowned for their bullyboy activities.
42 writes a journalist with, reportedly, close links to the Brown camp.
If McDoom is determined to stay on then it might lead to some pretty desperate attempts to stop him like Charles Clarke in explosive underpants flying a microlight through a window of number ten yelling McFrankendoom must be destroyed.
‘It’s Murray mania across the globe’
http://scotlandonsunday.scotsman.com/scotland/It39s-Murray-mania-across-the.6029516.jp
48 - Since Ted’s picture is more recent, we can conclude that Andy Murray is beyond saltire.
testing3
41 “I do sometimes wonder if there are a reasonable number of senior people in the government for whom the worst outcome is a Brown victory.”
I think that’s basically it. They know what he’s like and are desperate to get rid of him but want to keep *why* they’re desperate to get rid of him secret as it reflects on them for picking him as glorious leader.
53. antifrank
Is being Scottish something one can grow out of?
I’ve always found it odd how sportspeople are only Scottish until they are internationally successful. Then they make a strange metamorphosis into being British. Then, at the end of their career, they suddenly become Scots again.
David Coulthard was a classic example of this phenomenon.
53
Nice to see the issue of bullying in the workplace taken seriously on here.
If the story is true Brown should resign, end of.
28 - Seth, so you think the decline in the Tory ratings and the decline in Camerons ratings are unrelated?
Mike.
To answer your point from last night.
When I calculated a decline in Camerons ratings at 3% per month I had included YouGov polling, if as you said we should include only Ipsos Miori, then the decline has been 2.5% per month.
Boulton on Sky pouring cold water on BPIX and hung parliament narrative, “psephologically illiterate” was the phrase he used.
47 TimT
Have only been to Ljubljana once, just after it became independent from Yugoslavia. A pretty but very small capital, unravaged by war. I was only free to wander around for one evening which I enjoyed.
Otherwise a standard Mittel Europa state tourist agency hotel, which was as grey as all the others of that ilk. Only amusement was a very pretty Russian dancer doing a limbo dance every half hour in the hotel bar. This attracted the usual ‘mafia’ types making the experience more entertaining than a bar of businessmen.
My hosts tried to persuade me to stay the weekend in order to either go up into the mountains or down to the coast, both easily and quickly accessible from the capital. Unfortunately, schedule wouldn’t allow but many people I trust endorsed the advice.
56 Stuart, sportspeople can be Scots & British, or even as golfers be British & European. It’s not unusual for British sportsmen or women born in England to be Geordies, or Scousers (or Londoners), building reputations first in their regions or counties, proud of their origins but equally proud to represent their fellow citizens.
22- - ‘Call for Blair to face trial in Scotland’
Can we have an orderly queue in historical order please.
The trial of Alex Salmond for trying to stop the action to prevent a genocide in Kosovo should surely take precedent.
UN Security Council Resolution 1674, adopted by the United Nations Security Council on 28 April 2006, “reaffirms the provisions of paragraphs 138 and 139 of the 2005 World Summit Outcome Document regarding the responsibility to protect populations from genocide, war crimes, ethnic cleansing and crimes against humanity”.[22] The resolution commits the Council to action to protect civilians in armed conflict.
Well the moment is here - lets see if Salmond & Cameron best wishes can stymie the Gordon curse….
28. Seth. A surprising post from you. Conspiracy theorists are usually to be found in the rather younger more excitable posters on here.
Why would MORI and Yougov who go to enormous lengths to get their polling accurate make a mistake so basic that ‘Another Richard’ and ‘jsfl’ can uncover it in a matter of minutes?
I know someone who works for MORI and I would back her expertise against either of the two posters you mention by quite a distance!
Andy Murray has captained the (victorious) Scottish national team:
http://www.aecc.co.uk/aberdeencuptennis.aspx
Funnily enough, the captain of the defeated English national team was a Canadian.
Hopefully, Andy will be part of the Scotland team in Delhi this summer:
http://www.cwgdelhi2010.org/Template3.aspx?pageid=P:1162
http://www.cwgdelhi2010.org/Template3.aspx?pageid=P:1238
Will Dave ask the PM for his views on bullying in the workplace at PMQs?
On a conspiracy theory note, how do you place doubts on allegations about to come out. You make an even bigger false allegation (or an exaggerated version of on of the real ones) and leak it as being part of the other allegations. You then expose that as completely unfounded and false. Burn the strawman as it were. Then when the new allegations come out point to the burnt strawman and tar the whole lot by association.
Very risky since the rumour will be damaging in itself, and probably a bit too elaborate to be practical. But an interesting thought (for me at least).
66 - Wouldn’ that contradict his own employment policy?
58 - Well most were of the opinion that John Prescott would have had to resign in any other walk of life, but he didn’t.
But i agree. Really the allegations are so serious that they should either prompt a legal case against Rawnsley, or he should resign. To brush them off as “the actions of Blairites” won’t do.
One of the incident occurred around late June. At that time, it is rumoured that a former SPad resposnsible for Gordon’s image -Nicola Burdett (Sion Simon’s ex and ex BBC producer) took a Caribbean sabbatical because the marks from a bruising encounter were too obvious.
Roger - The Dutch are well aware of the issues in Srebrenica and have lett to a lot self criticism. However to use that as an argument to dismiss the outcome of their public enquiry is cheap to say the least and insulting if you take in to account the loss of live in support of the US and UK venture in Afghanistan. — So using your fraught argument the historic baggage of the UK disqualifies it from ever getting involved or commenting on any international issue..
68 - Yes, one can’t move for allegations about Cameron mistreating his staff. Or maybe not.
68 tim thats libellous.
58 tim
You first have to prove that there has been a true decline in Tory ratings. Angus Reid don’t show it and nor do MORI and YouGov, once adjusted for sampling irregularities. The Tories seem irremovably stuck on 40% with MOE wobbling of +/- 3, though more plus than minus.
As to a decline in Cameron approval ratings, I haven’t studied these closely, just taken on trust the figures stated by Mike S and others on pb.com. They will of course have “fallen” from their 2008 (?) peak, but I have seen no reliable evidence that they are declining by 3% per month in data from all pollsters. My mind is open and I would be prepared to change it if you were to provide credible data.
As to a correlation existing, you need to address both premises first. Even assuming that the Tory share was declining, then you need to ask what drives the approval ratings for Cameron. Which is the cause and which the effect? Both may be factors on each other, but how would you reliably measure the impact?
72. Don’t be absurd!
The BBC is reporting an e-mail scam reputedly from HM Revenue and Customs whereby thousands of people have received notification of a rebate and are requested to provide details of their credit and debit cards. Surprise, surprise no money appears but balances disappear.
I raised this nearly a fortnight ago directly with the office of Lesley Straithe, CEO of HMRC, having received an e-mail shortly after filing my tax return on-line. I was somewhat underwhelmed by the lack of concern from HMRC about the serious implications. I also forwarded the e-mail to the HMRC “phishing” department with a request that they contact me. But nothing, no response.
I recall the Government saying, I think Darling in the PBR, that it was going to get HMRC to make more use of e-mails. But the response to this scam had been pathetic. A phrase from the war was “Careless talk costs lives”. Today, careless talk costs money.
71. Andy Coulson.
35. This man was prosecuted for ‘assault by beating’ and all he did was flick a pony tail:
http://www.newsandstar.co.uk/news/cumbrian_man_fined_for_flicking_a_barmaid_s_ponytail_1_666662?referrerPath=home
“He [Long] accepts he was a little bit cheeky and said he flicked the back of her ponytail, which was confirmed by CCTV and other witnesses.”
18 Roger, what a ludicrous post.
(i) Calling something “gossip” and “tittle-tattle” isn’t to deny its veracity, you know. It’s a bit like official denials that a story is speculation. Gossip and tittle-tattle is often true, viz. the John Terry story.
(ii) Gordon Brown is our employee. This is behaviour that should get him fired from any organisation. We need to know about it.
(iii) The BBC is supposed to be neutral and non-commercial. It should therefore IMO publicise the headlines from all national papers equally. Sky doesn’t have those constraints as far as I am concerned - but it usually publicises all the front pages, so it is unusual that it put one up and took it down.
73 - Which figures have they stated?
A decline by 17 per cent, rather than 22% including YouGov.
72.Don’t be daft, Coulson is also the highest paid employee.
It’s notable that these allegations once again imply a rather poisonous misogynist streak in our Dear Leader.
And again point to New Labour as the party of oafs and yobs.
77. notme. After your hysterical post of yesterday I hope you’re now feeling more relaxed?
And in today’s Times another example of the way New Labour has spread corruption into the whole public sector…
‘ENGLAND’S local government spending watchdog has paid a lobbying firm with links to Labour for advice on how to undermine Tory frontbenchers who challenged its activities. ‘
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article7009751.ece
75-That scam has been going around for at least 9 months.
Today being the tax return day could be their most profitable one.
80. “And again point to New Labour as the party of oafs and yobs”
LOL!
Batty even by your standards!
Well if the summary in the Mail is anything to go by Brown is hardly Attilla the Hun. Anyone whose worked under any sort of pressure knows that tempers can get a little bit frayed at times.
80
OooH oafs and yobs, how unlike those Bullingdon types, of course their behaviour was just a jolly jape.
Still if Dave feels stressed he can alway go on the fags, or seek some other form of narcotic support.
82. The audit commission is the means by which the Labour party imposes its will on local authorities. The desires of this organisation and its inspectors are considered far more important then the desires of the voters, or those of the councillors.
Local Authorities have got used to ’tilting their windmills’ towards satisfying the often perverse demands of this Quango. Councils are utterly utterly obsessed with trying to please their every demand, like a battered wife that craves approval from her abuser.
84 So you support a Prime Minister who assaults his staff? Cretin.
Runny’s comment is quite reasonable given the MoS story and other things we know about, such as the McBride smear attempt.
84. How would you describe someone who assaults women, Roger?
77. Technically speaking you don’t even have to touch someone to be guilty of assault, just give them cause to fear harm.
81. I posted a link to an online story which indicated how the laws of assault are enforced. The offence of flicking a pony tail resulted in a conviction. Is that hysteria? wow….
They have just mentioned the Brown story on a review of the front pages on the Andrew Marr show.
This story is gaining currency now. Brown has form for it now and in the past.
Now we have Clare Short venting her spleen at Blair.
Richard 111, the same scam - bogus tax refunds - is pulled a lot over here. Mostly by phone rather than e-mail, apparently. It got so bad they had to put notices up at ATMs (which people use for bank transfers) warning people about them. Some banks have even inserted an extra “Are you sure you’re not being scammed?” screen that appears before you transfer your money.
Apparently the scammers particularly target old people who aren’t comfortable working the ATM, and give them directions about which buttons to press. (The scammers have manuals showing them which screens show in which order for each bank.) The first button they have them press is the one that switches the interface from Japanese to English, so the victim doesn’t realize that they’re making a transfer rather than requesting a refund.
Re 22
There is no chance of an indictment in HMA v Antony Lyton Blair. Certainly not with this Lord Advocate. I suspect after the stress and embarrasment of the Lochebie trial and appeal rules out any such high profile cases for years.
38. Roger
Resolutions or no resolutions etc the bottom line was that the deceptions used to justify the war were of Gulf of Tonkin proportions.
At the time I was reluctant supporter of the war, my reluctance due to the fact that I didnt really fancy getting bogged down in there and serious doubts about the lightness of the forces assembling. Anyone with an ounce of understanding would knwow it wasnt enough to occupy the place effectively. I had no issues with getting rid of Saddam and blunty I have no issue protecting the West’s oil supplies. I could believe that he had WMD.
I can be clear on here, however, that the intelligence on Saddams WMD was also pretty emphatic as it turns out; he didnt hasve anything of note. SIS memos at the time suggested he had minimal active capacity. Special forces troops in the field were told that he probably had a a few mustard gas shells left and that was as good as it got.
Before you suggest that a few mustard gas shells was plenty for the Kurds, the scientific facts are its actually a highly inefficient weapon and certainly not a justification for going to war.
As for the lack of post war planning, it was criminal and the greatest failing of the war. We can go and blame Rumsfeld all we want but the British werent much better in their planning and if anything the US adapted way better over time. The British miltary left Southern Iraq with their tail between their legs after having left the place to the militias. It was the Iraqis and US who got to grips with them. The reasons for the British stance will come out more once the current government is out of power.
On another note, how long before some eejit mentions Andy Murray as being anti English…..
89. In this case he was found guilty for the more serious ‘assault by beating’, something one cannot be found guilty of without contact.
88.comrade
91. I said in previous thread: This story will only have legs if the BBC run with it, if not it is yesterdays chip paper. The BBC can, however change their minds, and later on as the story gains momentum, they then cover it, but it *only* becomes a big story when the BBC make this decision.
If it isnt on the BBC, it might as well have not happened.
80. Runnymede. A silly red herring. It was the generalization that was batty.
95. Yes, given he apparently made contact with her hair. Causing fear of harm by contact, assault by beating. *shrugs*
Is it Roger? Just look down the list of key New Labour individuals…Campbell, Whelan, Prescott, Draper, McBride, now Brown..and that list is far from exhaustive.
At the centre of New Labour is a culture of violence, boorishness, misogyny and intense personal hatreds.
100 Wot - no Balls?
100. A shocking omission…apologies…but I did say the list wasn’t exhaustive. I imagine our Scottish posters could add a few more names as well…
I don’t know if this poll has been mentioned:-
http://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Polls/Jan10-Political-Monitor-Observer-Topline.pdf
I think it settles the question of whether Cameron’s ratings are in decline. In January 2007, (ie before Brown’s honeymoon) 36% like Cameron, and 29% liked the Conservative Party. Now the respective figures are 45%, and 39%.
Argh. I loathe it when I get sent a tip and read it too late
Speaking of tips, F1 testing begins tomorrow. I just wish it were in Tokyo rather than Valencia (that way the results would be in by the time I woke up).
103 The numbers liking Labour, and liking Gordon Brown are pretty well unchanged, but the numbers disliking both have soared.
Looks like the possibility of a hung parliament, is beginning to concentrate minds.
http://blogs.notw.co.uk/politics/2010/01/cameron-plans-a-second-snap-election.html
Is this why Labour’s bullying czar sent racially aggravated death threats by mobile phone?
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/showbiz/article-23795667-ndubzs-dappy-apologises-after-sending-death-threats-to-young-mum.do
Presumably the thinking was that Brown had mastered the use of the Nokia as a physical weapon and was ready to move on to tuition in the next stage of mobile-related harassment.
i am sure our resident buying expert tim (chosen spec subject: that howwid mr coulson)will be sharing his thoughts on this with us.
On topic: this could be serious. A media blackout is pathetic. I’ve said it before, Sky News swings one way and then another, but has been anti-Tory/pro-Labour since conference season when they regurgitated the fictional EU split story.
If the PM were to be a violent, aggressive fellow with serious anger management problems, to the extent he’s physically manhandled his staff then it’s a legitimate area for a journalist to explore.
107 buying = bullying (toast crumb under l key)
108. The media has form of course in terms of covering up awkward personal stories involving New Labour figures.
109, I’m sorry, Mr. Treader, I don’t believe you. I think your secretary messed up. In fact, I shall shortly be releasing a book detailing how you got so angry with your poor secretary you picked her up and threw her through the nearest window shouting, “*I’m* the PRIME MINISTER!”
The plucky wee Scotsman is getting his butt whipped
107. I cant see the racially aggravated bit, but good to see Ali G is alive and well.
And to think that this man has his finger on the nuclear trigger.
And ROGER to your point earlier about Guido-type tittle-tattle -
It was Guido who brought to the world news of the orchestrated smearing plan against leading opposition figures. That was going in the heart of Number 10 and led by his most trusted adviser.
Whatever happens at this election the Brown gang have to go.
98 Roger, the key reason I moved from bafflement about Brown to active dislike is the culture and the people that he surrounds himself with.
As they say ‘fish rot from the head’ (not true scientifically but true as culture goes). Reports of Brown’s tantrums against Blair and others that crossed him are not new. His Praetorian Guard, as Runnymede points out are not known for their civilised behaviour. Blair’s crowd included some pretty dislikeable people but not the culture that Brown has.
The height of Thatcher’s Government briefing against opponents was “he’s a semi detached member”; not exactly the ****ing, Mother****ing c*** language now common. In all the failed coups a demand from the plotters was for an end to briefings against, Mandelson’s demand last June was for an end to the Balls, McGuire, Whelan, Byrne “strategy” meetings (which had previously involved McBride).
Scots posters say this is the culture of the Scots Labour Party. Perhaps it is but it seems to have been adopted by Gordon’s men whatever their origins (rarely women except for Shrieking Shriti - her nickname perhaps explaining her attraction).
Hopefully the next Labour leader will cleanse his party of at least the worst practices of this regime.
114 What’s interesting, looking at figures for 2006 and 2007, was that Cameron wasn’t that popular among the voters as a whole. Now, it seems, people have made up their minds about him, both for and against.
They’ve also made their minds up about Gordon Brown.
107 Me neither, but I didn’t write the law. Any incident is racially aggravated if there is rhe possibility that it might be perceived by the victim as racist. My thinking is that a rapper with a Greek surname probably belongs to a racial minority, therefore is likely to be a different race from his victim, therefore can be perceived as racist under the bizarre definition above.
I put the telly on to watch Sophie Raworth, only to find two foreign tennis players. What is the world coming to?
Moderately interesting that the top 3 F1 drivers are on 5-5.1, but both Massa and Rosberg have lengthened noticeably, to about 16 and 19 respectively. Weird.
Downing St need to quash these nonsensical reports about Brown. A strong statement should be rushed out now before it’s too late saying that Brown did no such thing. Maybe then Andy Murray can turn it around.
http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/home-news/andymonium-murraymania-scotland-holds-its-breath-1.1002612
“Why’s this been pulled from the SkyNews paper review?”
No one, so far, seems able to answer Mike’s question at the top of this thread.
Presumably this could only have been ordered at the very highest level.
When Murray loses the attention will switch back to Gordons antics.
Federer is just awesome.
120 Unfortunately for Brown he has previous, as reported in Tom Bower’s biography.
122 To be fair, Andy Murray does have to contend with the best wishes of Gordon, written on that piano Murray is carrying on his back…
121 - The most succinct answer is provided at comment 3. Exactly the same reason as the Osborne coke allegations a few years ago.
Not sure if this has been linked..
Oh yes, and this message is to the contributors to political betting dot com who are very quick, too quick, to let forth, there was another poll published today, by YouGov in the Daily Telegraph, which reported voting intention shares of 38% for the Tories, 31% for Labour, a seven point Conservative lead compared to Ipsos MORI’s eight. I’ve run their figures in the ‘Swingo’ below. On these shares, the Tories with under the magic 40%, at 38% would lead Labour by 30 seats, and Cameron would be called to see the Queen.
http://www.ipsos-mori.com/newsevents/ca/ca.aspx?oItemId=418
124, quite. Beating Roger Federer is very hard. Beating Roger Federer whilst the best wishes of Jonah twist fate against you is even harder.
Had a quick look on the BBC website for the story. I was shocked, shocked I tell you, to be unable to find it. Apparently “PM alleged to have manhandled and verbally abused staff” is less important than buying 5,700 sheets of corrugated eye-ron.
Seth - I’d like to try to give a serious response, separate from what any of us would wish. I’ve seen jsfl and another richard’s analyses, and they cast doubt on the comparison of specific polls from one month to the next, as I did the other day with MORI.
However, I don’t think there is any reason to doubt the general view here that the polls are reflecting a true position of around 40-30-20, with some indication in the last few days that they may have narrowed marginally to something like 39-31-20. There was a longish period where leads in the mid-teens were common, so there has obviously been a shift.
The problem with the theory is Angus Reid, and we pretty much know why their findings look like that: they are not following the long-tested practice of British polling firms of adjusting for false recall. They might be right, but it seems fairly unlikely that everyone else who’s been doing the job here for (in some cases) decades has got it wrong. Also, although we are all rightly wary of canvass data, comparing what the same people say over time is surprisingly reliable, and what we’re hearing in the marginals bears out the view that we’re at worst not far off the 2005 figure (which was admittedly exceptionally low for a winning party). If we were on 24% (i.e. we’d lost a third of our support), we’d notice. But even comparative canvass data doesan’t tell you much about the other parties’ share (because people who say “No thank you” have unknown intentions except “not you”).
If you’ll accept that as a working hypothesis, where does that leave us? Well, we can also agree that in reality a 9-10% lead would see Cameron in power, one way or another; it’s probably also accepted that if they led by 6% or less, we’d be in NOM territory. So what we’re essentially debating is the probability that Labour can achieve a 2% swing from the current position, whether by doing better than expected in the debates, convincing people on a key policy, squeezing LibDems, improving Labour turnout certainty or sowing doubt about Tory intentions. That seems to me quite probable, and NOM should probably be the narrow betting favourite at this stage.
It *could* go the other way, but the current drift seems to be against that, and the arguments here to the contrary are strongly coloured by people’s personal starting assumptions. If one thinks that Labour are criminals or maniacs, of course one finds it hard to imagine a further shift, but the same people scratch their heads over why anyone votes Labour apart from their archetypal drunken northerner on benefits (who won’t in fact vote at all). They’re extrapolating from themselves and the people they know personally.
The reality is that most people think the situation is nasty, if improving, and they aren’t sure any of us are much better than the others. A NOM result actually reflects that quite accurately, uncomfortable though it is for all of us who believe in our parties. I’d like to see a Labour majority and you’d like to see a Tory one, but our wishes shouldn’t guide our assessments here of the situation as it stands.
Cathy Ashton our ‘EU High Commissioner’ on SkyNews now making another hash of it. What am embarrassment.
“My priority was to save lives in Haiti. It was right that I stayed in Brussels.”
129 - Better than wasting money sending her there for a ‘goodwill’ visit.
If this is true, and gains momentum - rather than just being Sunday news fodder - it’s absolutely toxic as it brings back the McBride scandal too.
If I were a Labour supporter, I’d be furious that my party simply crowned this man.
131. Well we get the prominent people we deserve, I’m afraid - ‘heroes’ like John Terry, ‘leaders’ like Gordon Brown.
Baroness Ashton vs Adam Boulton - must watch!
Ashton drowning
131. “If I were a Labour supporter, I’d be furious that my party simply crowned this man.”
Theses stories aren’t all new, many of those who crowned him knew what they were getting.
Ashton’s great - she’s so astoundingly crap it’s discrediting the role. Love the fact that Clinton couldn’t speak to her because she’d gone hone for the day……
129 Lady Ashton isn’t popular in the EU - commuting to Brussels daily from London so she’s not in office much of the time, though presumably she can do paperwork etc in first class on Eurostar when she’s not flying to and fro, and unavailable to her staff after 8pm.
A refreshingly aristocratic 19th century approach to power, not active government but a light touch on the tiller. Just what we want from an EU apparatchnik.
114
Hmmm its probably unlikely that GB or anyone else could launch a strike, just ‘cos they are having a bad day.
December 2008 the BBC Radio 4 made a programme titled The Human Button, providing new information on the manner in which the United Kingdom could launch its nuclear weapons, particularly relating to safeguards against a rogue launch. Former Chief of the Defense Staff (most senior officer of all British armed forces) and Chief of the General Staff (most senior officer in the British Army), General Lord Guthrie of Craigiebank, explained that the highest level of safeguard was against a prime minister ordering a launch without due cause: Lord Guthrie stated that the constitutional structure of the United Kingdom provided some protection against such an occurrence, as while the Prime Minister is the chief executive and so practically commands the armed services, the ultimate commander-in-chief is the Monarch, to whom the chief of the defence staff could appeal: “the chief of the defence staff, if he really did think the prime minister had gone mad, would make quite sure that that order was not obeyed… You have to remember that actually prime ministers give direction, they tell the chief of the defence staff what they want, but it’s not prime ministers who actually tell a sailor to press a button in the middle of the Atlantic. The armed forces are loyal, and we live in a democracy, but actually their ultimate authority is the Queen
So if GB’s porridge is cold, we’ll probably all live to see another day.
126. I am afraid you have got this wrong in terms of constitutional practice. The Queen would not send for anyone until Brown resigned - and their would be no requirement for him to do so until defeated on the Queen’s Speech.If Brown is 20 - 30 seats adrift of the Tories there is no way he would just give in - he would dare the LibDems and other minority parties to vote him out.People tend to forget the advantage of incumbency in the event of a Hung Pariament - particularly if it were to prove badly hung with no party knocking on the door of a majority.
Watching the tennis it struck me that the SNP & Scots Conservatives need to get a viral campaign going - if you want Andy Murray to win a Grand Slam get Gordon out of number 10 before the French Open.
AB: Does Europe support the US weapons sales to Taiwan?
BA: That’s a matter for America
AB: Does Europe support Taiwanese independence?
BA: I’m not taking a position on that
AB: But isn’t is the job of diplomacy to have a position
BA: yes, but er waffle
AB: Do you support what Blair was saying that Iran could be an ever more serious threat to world peace?
BA: I think that’s a matter for the UN security council & I spoke to Hillary Clinton.
Well if Europe has to have a Foreign Minister, thank God she’s useless.
I’d imagine one thing that could halt Camerons slide is this.
Tory poll lead slips as party denies David Cameron rift with George Osborne
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1247426/Tory-poll-lead-slips-party-denies-David-Cameron-rift-George-Osborne.html#ixzz0eBSgdwWy
A rift with Osborne has to be a vote winner.
SKY paper review on Boulton again not showing the Mail on Sunday…
138 - Better well hung than badly, huh? *titter*
…sorry, couldn’t resist
“If I were a Labour supporter, I’d be furious that my party simply crowned this man.”
Doubt most of them could believe any of this was possible - especially from a party that would try and get one of them sacked if they called a female council worker “luv” by accident.
@@@
Wish i could draw. I want to make a cartoon of Mandy dressing Charles Clarke solely in explosive underpants, pointing at the bunker and saying “go do your duty for the party or i’ll tell everyone about the aardvark”.
Well the Not Andrew Marr show this morning was a waste of time.
The only interesting thing I learned was that Harman went to the same school as Osborne.
64 Roger
Sorry, one eye on Murray led me to miss your comment.
It is not just Another Richard and jsfl. Nick P had a look at the MORI figures and concluded they were an “enigma”.
I am not accusing the pollsters of “cheating”, still less a conspiracy. Each of them seem to have their own methodologies, in particular filters they do or do not apply to raw data to compensate for historical error. That still leaves a little wiggle room to allow an uncontrolled variable to wander whilst remaining consistent to their standard methodology.
Does this happen deliberately? I don’t know. But as you say, I am sufficiently long in the tooth to know that commercial organisations in pursuit of sales are happy to bend but not break rules.
As the saying goes: “it’s good enough for government work”!
One good thing about Baroness Ashton is that she made money for a number of pbers, I can’t think of a second.
147 - is that a new Mail front page that Boulton held up there ?
147 She enabled Morus to be voted TOTY 2009.
If we win or if we do well I would expect Gordon Brown to stay on - Tony McNulty doing the Sky Paper Review.
I wonder which home Tony McNulty travelled from…the brass neck of these people to show their faces in public!
Nick, for the good of the country, please do anything you can to stop Gordon wishing people luck. Please?
McNulty rubbished Gordon MoS story, who is that silly girl on with him? Anita Roddick’s daughter?
146. I think it’s abundantly clear that some of the pollsters now see volatility in their findings as a valuable sales aid.
149 pfp - she surely did
153.I would agree, some of the questions on the surveys are so leading they would be Alastair Campbell blush.
47. Went to Slovenia few years ago. Excellent Italian food at roughly 30% of tourist area Italian prices!
If you can get up to Lake Bled, do so. About an hour, as I recall, by bus.
Seriously though, did the Mail change it’s front page to ‘Gordon shouts at people when he’s cross’ ?
126- There appears to be something wrong with Mori’s swingometer- the figure totals show Lib Dems down from 62 to 31 on a 5.5% swing but the seats lost line a ittle below shows a Lib dem figure of only -21. You would have thought that Mori had the expertise to construct a swing spreadsheet but apparently not (which perhaps explians why their polling figures are so volatile).
145- Even thats not strictly speaking true- St. Pauls girls and St.Pauls boys are different schools on different campuses about a mile from one another. The girls (i.e. Harman’s patch) tend to think they are cut above the boys academically and socially and purely from anecdotal experience I would say they are. St Pauls B
boys on the other hand tend to better adjusted individuals than the girls (who are unbelievably competitive and will stab their fellow Paulinas in the back at the first opportunity).
It seems that the betting market doesn’t think Brown is likely to quit as Labour leader willingly/quickly.
Betfair’s latest matched odds for Q3 2009 being his exit date were 3.1/1
158 as many as -21?
re 159 Nobody in their right mind would bet on Q3 2009
The Telegraph reports that Number 10 are denying the story and rather oddly blaming “Rawnsley’s close links to allies of Tony Blair”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/gordon-brown/7114834/No-10-denies-claims-Gordon-Brown-attacked-staff.html
More mileage in this. But why are the Murdoch camp ignoring it?
161 Dr Who might….
163 “But why are the Murdoch camp ignoring it?” (des)
Sky has been ordered (again!) to sell its ITV stake (at a loss).
Leaving aside the appaling (but not exactly new) revelations about Brown’s inability to control his temper my eye was drawn to this
“distraught over an alleged snub by President Barack Obama.”
This man runs our country?
To have been a fly on the wall when Brown chased Obama into the kitchen…..
162 : ..Maybe the Murdoch camp are planning a swift return to support labour.
The SUN also rises!
“Sky has been ordered (again!) to sell its ITV stake (at a loss).”
By the courts. Look, we have enough of this rubbish with Tapestry-don’t you start.
153 - Yes, runnymede, “No change in the polls” doesn’t sell polls.
167 I find it very hard to subscribe to Tapestry’s theory that the majority of polling companies and thousands of council workers across the country are all engaged in a gigantic conspiracy to declare Labour the winner of the next election.
159 - I have been a prophet in the wilderness for some time on this. Why April to June 2010 has been the hot favourite for so long is beyond me.
The Murray Mint is melting in the sun. The SUN also sets!
169 Odds are against it, I agree….
But on the Sky front, I know the people involved in the regulatory decisions here - there is definitely no conspiracy, pro-Labour, pro-EU or otherwise.
Have the victims of Brown’s bullying been bought off and silenced with taxpayers’ money?
does anyone know why andrew marr was not on his show today, discussing extra marital affairs, love children and super-inunctions?.
Here’s a question though. Most media outlets have absolutely no idea whether or not the stories about Brown’s temper are true (assuming that Rawnsley hasn’t decided to disclose the identity of his anonymous sources). Certainly it would make it impossible to defend themselves in the courts (not a very likely outcome, but you never know).
All of which leads me to this: should a responsible news outlet report a story that could prove enormously damaging to a leading politician when it has no idea whether or not the story is true? And why?
174
64. Roger
“Why would MORI and Yougov who go to enormous lengths to get their polling accurate make a mistake so basic that ‘Another Richard’ and ‘jsfl’ can uncover it in a matter of minutes?
I know someone who works for MORI and I would back her expertise against either of the two posters you mention by quite a distance!”
Well Mike Smithson and Anthony Wells agree with me about MORI and I would back their expertise rather than your ‘friend’.
Not to mention that the party which is suffering from MORI’s strange methodology is the LibDems as Mark Senior has also proved.
Still Roger perhaps we should look at MORI’s track record at predicting election results. About as accurate as your own predictions.
new labour soap opera, The Selection Process or First lessons in Nepotism or who you ‘know. - at least it will upset Harman.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1247403/Labour-war-Blair-sons-glamorous-friend-chosen-safe-seat.html
It would be nice to know how the 13% “Others” in the BPIX poll break down, but that seems to be a trade secret.
I would guess probably something like UKIP 4%, BNP 3%, Green 3%, SNP/Plaid 3%.
I don’t know if this has been commented on here today, if so I don’t apologise for bringing it up.
This is the right way to get the Tory momentum going again: say it like it is.
Cameron’s dynamite quote on householders’ rights.
“The moment a burglar steps over your threshold, and invades your property, with all the threat that gives to you, your family and your livelihood, I think they leave their human rights outside.”
Mr Cameron made the remarks during an interview for BBC1’s Politics Show, due to be broadcast from noon (tennis permitting).
Tim Montgomerie
Quote of the Day
Cameron’s dynamite quote on householders’ rights
“The moment a burglar steps over your threshold, and invades your property, with all the threat that gives to you, your family and your livelihood, I think they leave their human rights outside.”
Mr Cameron made the remarks during an interview for BBC1’s Politics Show, due to be broadcast from noon (tennis permitting).
Tim Montgomerie
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/thetorydiary/2010/01/camerons-dynamite-quote-on-householders-rights.html
175 I’d say the opposite is true - most lobby journalists will know all about Brown’s temper, the question is why is he getting away with it?
McBride was a great enforcer for a long time - I wonder who’s doing it now? Is Nigel Griffith still a whip? I assume he also has an injunction on the NOTW and the extra pix in their filing cabinet. If he doesn’t, then ho ho ho.
3rd round tiebreak!
We used to say that the beeb ignored stories that didn’t come from their own stable of Guardianista types. So what’s Rawnsley?
Perhaps political blogsphere should pre-order en masse.
In any event, Rawnsey will be harder to ignore than Watt.
181: Snap!
82 - ‘ENGLAND’S local government spending watchdog has paid a lobbying firm with links to Labour for advice on how to undermine Tory frontbenchers who challenged its activities. ‘
Typical of Labour i’m afraid.
182. Most lobby journalists know about Cameron’s past propensity for [best not finish that sentence]. Why not report that too? I believe these stories as much as I believe the stories about Brown’s temper with about the same level of proof.
Besides, I suspect most voters will shrug when confronted with this sort of thing. Brown’s a moody bugger you say? Aye, well that’s no surprise. Now, do I still have a job?
187
There’s a tiny bit of a difference between being moody and assaulting staff, you must admit.
REQUEST FOR ADVICE
Can anyone tell me which of the free blog hosting websites are the best? I am thinking of starting one about relations with China, but I am not overly technical, nor do I have massive amounts of time to maintain the site. I am aware of Blogspot, Livejournal and Wordpress - are there some lesser known ones which are good?
(Of course this may all be academic given most of these are currently banned here!)
Many thanks.
187 - The thing is a lot of people will answer no, or not for long, to your final question. A very large majority of them would not dream of acting like that in the workplace. Shrug it off ? I don’t think so.
182. Because lobby journalists are pathetic invertebrates.
curse strikes again
“….Perhaps because it’s gossip and tittle tattle and Sky thought they owed it to their viewers to offer something less infantile than that which they would expect on Guido?…” by roger.
Roger, really have tried to find the posts were you rubbish Yachtgate as tittle tattle as being infantile and should not be worthy of coverage on the BBC or Sky.
Could you be a pet and point them out to me?
Did anyone else think that Osborne’s us-to broadband stuff on Marr was very thin?
Why he brought that up can only be a neutraliser to Labour’s white-heat of technology meme.
I thought the most fascinating bit of Marr was Julie Andrews’ very extensive facelift.
A rift between Osborne and Cameron isn’t likely, unlike Blair/Brown who hated each other, Cameron/Osborne have been friends for years and get on well.
Murray
I see that Scots chappie lost again.
Jonah strikes again.
I think I posted nooooooo when we printed Brown’s best wishes in the (scpttish) currant bun.
Jonah strikes again. Let’s hope that his curse works on his own election chances!!
195 - Its the most plausible reason for the marriage tax cock up that we’ve heard so far.
Murray Mint dissolved!
177 another richard. Some thoughts about these differing polls. There is a game with high risk stakes at play here. We have the newcomer Angus Reid forecasting a large Conservative majority. One Yougov, IPSOS/Mori and BPIX forecasting hung parliaments. ICM and People/Yougov forecasting a small Conservative majority.
In the London Mayoral election, IPSOS/Mori were very embarrassed because they had Labour too high and their reputation suffered. Yougov came out with their reputation enhanced. Angus Reid can almost plead “UK novices” if proved wrong.
But if IPSOS/Mori get it badly wrong at a GE again, will they have any political credibility left?
However if Angus Reid are proved correct they have a massive opportunity to take work off Yougov as online pollsters. Which brings me back to the point others have raised as to why Yougov are apparently using out of date sample sizes for the parties? It could be a very costly mistake, Mr Kellner and Mr Shakespeare. Punters think Angus Reid are worth backing.
like the start of a new thread - those mentioning Jonah should try and claim first
wont be long for the next chance
It must be psychological, Murray hears GB has wished him well and thinks, ‘that’s me stuffed then’.
At least Murray only hit a tennis ball & lost.
bill d
I’d be more than happy if every paper ran the following two stories:
1 - Cameron, as a youngster, probably took charlie.
2 - Brown, as Prime Minister, is a bully, including bullying junior female staff, upto and including assault. All because Obama thought Brown a bit weird.
Judging by your post, you won’t complain either.
191. A lot of lobby journalists have bosses whose behaviour is far worse than Brown’s you know; and these individuals have far more influence in deciding what gets reported than the rank and file. Brave and dedicated reporters are just as likely to get their work spiked as pathetic and lazy ones. (Remember too: most people do not want to hear Westminster village gossip).
187. Indeed, it’s more serious. Which is why one might be more cautious about repeating allegations of one rather than the other.
207 “A lot of lobby journalists have bosses whose behaviour is far worse than Brown’s you know”
So that’s all right then
Do we know why no MSM outlet has run with any of the AR polls?
Politics gossip will be replaced in the tabloids by good sports or celeb gossip every time. Sh@gging sells more copies than political gossip about Nokias or bullying.
And of course Brown is leader of the LABOUR party. LABOUR claim to be the champion of the little guy and deplore WORKPLACE BULLYING in all it’s forms.
Unless the bully is Brown, McBride, Byrne, Balls, Brown.
202 The differences between the polling companies aren’t huge.
It’s simply that if the Conservatives have a lead of 10% or so, very small shifts in vote share, and differing forms of behaviour in different types of seats, can make very big differences in terms of outcomes.
A 10% lead for the Conservatives could either put them on the verge of a hung Parliament, or give them a comfortable working majority, and we won’t know till after the votes have been counted.
209 Because they’re new. For some years, Yougov polls weren’t mentioned.
207. There have also been some very famous bullies who have owned and edited newspapers. Maxwell, for one. So there is a certain irony in all this.
I could also name some famous editors, working today, with a “Brownian” approach to personnel - e.g. vicious and continuous abuse - but I won’t cause I’d still like to work in Fleet Street if the thrillers go tits up.
Politics and journalism are intense professions that attract aggressive people with high testosterone levels. The only difference is that journalists are generally much more entertaining and charming than politicians, and slightly less venal.
Surely the main significance of Brown-beating-his-staff-gate (ooe-er!) is not the allegations in themselves, but the general response to them. Because even if the specifics aren’t exactly as reported- no-one seems to be denying that it’s out of character for the man.
So Gordo has allegedly assaulting people who work for him, and look on BBC and Sky website…nada. Sky front pages, no MoS, other papers little coverage. I wonder if Cameron was accused of this what would happen?
Oh no wait, Coulson “bullied” a worker by wanting to get him sacked for messing up and because he forcefully insisted he saw a company doctor about his health condition. We had front page BBC, phone in on the BBC, etc etc etc.
207 bill d
Have a quick look at the video linked below and tell me whether this is a man you would be happy working for.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H7dEDhcNs_c
Look forward to your answer.
216 (cont) These are extremely serious allegations, the response so far seems to be brush it under the carpet.
Aww….Murray’s bottom lip wobbling……
208. Just an amusing fact wrapped up in a larger point. (Not so amusing if you work for them: I can think of a few media bullies who lack charm and interest).
Lobby journalists generally write a lot of stuff that ends up being spiked. It’s not really their fault, they’re just covering something that bores the majority of people.
206. My only objection to running those two stories would be that they might not sell many copies: neither would be a huge surprise to lots of people.
The CAF are a total disgrace.
England should refuse to play any money-spinning friendlies with African nations (other than Togo) in protest.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/africa/8489127.stm
I’m amazed at the insensitivity and crassness.
“It’s not really their fault, they’re just covering something that bores the majority of people.”
Yeah - the PM assaulting staff would be boring. Uhuh.
‘Brave and dedicated reporters’
Couldn’t help a little giggle at that one. Who, pray, do you think falls under that description among UK political journalists?
220 - Very true. As far as a paper goes, the less politics, the better.
224 So the Daily Star is perfect in that case
219. David, If he had been playing for Scotland he would have won comfortably, as soon as you are tagged “British” you are a loser, and have the misfortune to have Bulldog Brown supporting you to boot.
223. “Couldn’t help a little giggle at that one. Who, pray, do you think falls under that description among UK political journalists?”
There’s a chap who writes for the Sun. David Rove? Something like that. He’s OK.
One of the biggest problems here is that no one really knows whether Rawnsley is just asking about these stories or if they are already in his book. If the latest is correct, then there’s a big probability that he has some kind of evidence, but we won’t know until it is published.
“David, If he had been playing for Scotland he would have won comfortably, as soon as you are tagged “British” you are a loser,”
Wow. It’s a whole McCain factory on your shoulder this morning, isn’t it. Tw*t.
189 -
Wordpress is very good.
217. I’ve worked for bullies, I’ve worked for useless bastards. Neither is much fun, but it’s the ones that combine the two qualities that I’d really want to avoid.
223. Can we agree that anyone writing under their own name is braver than someone who uses the cover of an alias to hurl insults?
However if Angus Reid are proved correct they have a massive opportunity to take work off Yougov as online pollsters. Which brings me back to the point others have raised as to why Yougov are apparently using out of date sample sizes for the parties? It could be a very costly mistake, Mr Kellner and Mr Shakespeare. Punters think Angus Reid are worth backing.
by TC January 31st, 2010 at 11:28 am
I said yesterday, the day before and for months that i think YouGov is now tainted.
With Kellner and his wife Baroness Ashton, both major labour party members, can it be otherwise? Even if the bias in YouGov is unintentional, the hand at the tiller, steers.
OGH vociferously doesn’t agree with me, as he can’t believe that Kellner would let his bias show. I just beg to differ.
“I just beg to differ.”
Although without any evidence to support your view, and ignoring the fact that Stephen Shakespeare, a Tory, was a founder of the company.
231. Oooh touchy! But c’mon, let’s have some examples of the ‘brave and dedicated’ political journalists you are thinking of. If they are so brave, they surely won’t mind you naming them.
220 for goodness sake don’t tell tim that, he gets frightfully upset about howwid fleet street editors.
but he’s ok with mates of ed balls making death threats to strangers, and quite right too. new labour is exempt from the petty bureaucratic rules which apply to the little people.
233.. David . It is true that evidence of any malpractice is lacking and not being a forensic scientist, cannot give you any.
Sometimes though, the attitudes of people and feelings of others are enough.
By the way, does Stephen Shakespeare have any major say in the company now? Pray tell.
Sums it up http://www.andybarefoot.com/politics/cameron.php?poster=176532
I wonder who it was rushed out to give Hennesy the counter-brief now that McBride isn’t around?
It takes real courage to jot down a few lines, type them up verbatim and go to the pub. Hennesey for the Pullitzer!
No hiding the story by the BBC, oh no, apparently this is the MoS main story.
“The Mail on Sunday warns Britain is facing a new al-Qaeda terror threat from suicide “body bombers” who have explosives surgically inserted inside them.
The paper says the security service believes the move has been prompted by the recent introduction of body scanners at airports and says a syringe could be used to detonate explosives.”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/8489761.stm
236 - Mr Weathercock, when you criticise YouGov for being biased, you’re in the same stellar company as erm, Ken Livingstone.
Whilst I might disagree with Mr Kellner’s analysis of the polls, I retain confidence that the YouGov figures are free from bias.
Put it this way, would YouGov allow themselves to be tainted of accusations of bias? It would destroy their business. No would employ them to carry out a poll.
234. Nah, not going to personalise this. Mainly for entirely self-interested and cowardly reasons. If I start talking about why X is so much better than Y, it’s the prospect of Y hearing about it that worries me.
The Politics Show has been kidnapped!
The Rawnsley book has an entry on Amazon UK:
http://www.amazon.co.uk/End-Party-Andrew-Rawnsley/dp/0670918512/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1264939432&sr=1-1
231 Are you joking? Is your surname “d”?
Thing is you don’t necessarily know very much about a site the first time you post, so pseudonymity is only prudent.
It is always wise to be very cautious about who you give your personal details to. Chloe Moody thought it was ok to give the bbc her mobile number. Next thing she knows, she gets this text message from a close friend and associate of ed balls:
“Your gonna die. U sent a very bad msg towards Ndubz on the Chris Moyels show yesterday Morning and for that reason u will never be left alone! If you say sorry, I will leave u alone u ***”
242 Yes - I’ve been wondering where it’s gone.
240. The Screaming Eagles. You may be right, but so might I, anyway to other matters: how are the twins?
re 232. The big shareholder and driving force behind YouGov is Stephan Shakespeare - ex-Tory candidate who was Jeffrey Archer’s campaign manager.
246 - The Twins came very close to be being born on Wednesday. But they should be induced sometime in the next 6 weeks, all being well.
I noticed no JugEars on Marr this morning. What excuse did they give? His absence was surely nothing to do with John Terry being all over the front pages, total coincedence I’m sure, probably just busy with the kids this morning.
Sky have just come out with a huge lie “first time torys have fallen bellow 40% in a poll in 2 years” !!!!! Bolton did say dont read anything into it though !
I visited Pol Pot’s grave today. It’s a little clearing in the jungle by the Thai border. You can see the remnants of the pile of tyres on which he was burned. And his porcelain toilet, smashed up.
What is particularly poignant is that it has become a shrine. People visit this remote spot to light incense and make offerings to the spirit of the great atheist and genocidal maniac, a man who tried to destroy religion in Cambodia forever.
There’s even a little “ghost house” next to the grave, with a tiny model of Pol Pot and his wife, built by a Thai bloke who prayed to Pol Pot’s spirit and was given the right lottery numbers.
Touching.
Politics Show on in a mo.
248. A near miss then, you must still be on tender-hooks; I know the feeling.
Let u all know Der Tag, then we can all send congratulations.
248 - TSE, that must have been scary. I hope mum’s got her feet up and you’re taking good care of them all.
On how much lead is needed for a majority:
I’m trying to make time to put together a pb2 article on it (looking at the difference between the UNS and the mean swing in marginal constituencies, potential tactical voting unwind and marginal targetting) and putting percentage chances against them (as has been said repeatedly, very small deviations in a few constituencies can have make all the difference, but the probabilities of these deviations can be derived), but (very) rough figures I’ve got are:
Lab majority: 3% at level votes, 50% at Lab lead by 1, 97% at Lab lead by 2
Con Largest Party: 50% at Con lead by 3, 85% at Con Lead by 4
Con majority: 2% at Con lead by 6, 50% at Con lead by 7, 95% at Con lead by 8
So Lab lead >2 will be Lab majority
Con lead >0 and <3 will be Lab largest party in hung parliament
Con lead >4 and <6 will be Con largest party in hung parliament
Con lead >8 will be Con majority
Lab lead 0-2; Con lead 3-4; Con lead 6-8 will be the uncertain zones around Lab majority, Con/Lab largest party and Con majority respectively (in my opinion)
Ha ha, just heard Mandy, kettle, black and Pot spring to mind…
253 - Had a couple of near misses. Wednesday’s was a bit fraught, I was scared my kids were about to be born
1)In my car
2) On the motorway
3) In Manchester
(Damn HTML - apologies. trying again)
On how much lead is needed for a majority:
I’m trying to make time to put together a pb2 article on it (looking at the difference between the UNS and the mean swing in marginal constituencies, potential tactical voting unwind and marginal targetting) and putting percentage chances against them (as has been said repeatedly, very small deviations in a few constituencies can have make all the difference, but the probabilities of these deviations can be derived), but (very) rough figures I’ve got are:
Lab majority: 3% at level votes, 50% at Lab lead by 1, 97% at Lab lead by 2
Con Largest Party: 50% at Con lead by 3, 85% at Con Lead by 4
Con majority: 2% at Con lead by 6, 50% at Con lead by 7, 95% at Con lead by 8
So Lab lead >2 will be Lab majority
Con lead >0 and <3 will be Lab largest party in hung parliament
Con lead >4 and <6 will be Con largest party in hung parliament
Con lead >8 will be Con majority
Lab lead 0-2; Con lead 3-4; Con lead 6-8 will be the uncertain zones around Lab majority, Con/Lab largest party and Con majority respectively (in my opinion)
Mandy batting for HMG on Politics Show - wonder what he extracted in return for that
Apparently the Tories are ‘talking down Britain’ again.
Perhaps we should take up limbo dancing as a national sport given our illustrious economic prospects.
123 - Unfortunately for Brown he has previous, as reported in Tom Bower’s biography.
Not just in Bower’s book.
Even Labour insiders aknowledge that Brown is “different”
What on earth were Labour thinking of?
259 - what channel Plato?
BBC1 Kristin
251-Another revered socialist statesman. Wonder if Darling and his chums have popped by to pay respects?
262 - I got the news when I turned over, just missed the start that’s all.
If Labour should somehow win the next election - and it’s not impossible - there will be one ray of consoling sunshine, in the middle of the desolation.
That slender joy will come from watching the faces of the Labour ministers - as they realise, ohmygod, I’ve got to work for Gordon Brown for another five years. I’ve got to pretend I like him for another half a decade. I’ve got to pretend he’s normal. Help.
“Jeffrey Archers Campaign Manager”
Tremendous.
259 - Climate Warriors - Pick up your swords!
I want warmist politicians like Brown and disgusting Milibands booted out and I want Conservative fellow-travellers who are still pushing this green con trick – that’ll be you, David Cameron, you Greg Clark, you Tim Yeo, you John Gummer, to name but four – to be punished at the polls for their culpable idiocy.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jamesdelingpole/100024416/climategate-time-for-the-tumbrils/
Newsflash!
Arsey, moody Scot messes up again
And in other news, Andy Murray missed out on victory in the tennis open
226. If it wasn’t for those damn Iranians, Peruvians, Moroccans and Costa Ricans you’d have won the World Cup years ago, good luck in South Africa.
THIS IS NOT AN ANTI-SCOTTISH COMMENT - OK!
But - is there an uglier spectacle in the Whole Wide World of Sport than the “Murray Roar”? See BBC News, where they appear to have captured it in slo-mo… Eeeuuurgh!
180 - “Cameron’s dynamite quote on householders’ rights.
“The moment a burglar steps over your threshold, and invades your property, with all the threat that gives to you, your family and your livelihood, I think they leave their human rights outside.”
Mr Cameron made the remarks during an interview for BBC1’s Politics Show, due to be broadcast from noon (tennis permitting).”
We were discussing this at work just last week.
everyone involved in the discussion agreed with Camerons viewpoint.
270 CCHQ - put the essence of that quote on a poster.
Then let’s see if that poster gets defaced….
269 I’ve never seen it before - I thought it was a still shot until he moved after several seconds.
It’s scary and ugly - blergh
271 - It might be useful if they knew what they were going to do with the law before they do that.
At the moment its another “err, we don’t know” policy.
Dave in a nice mess over marriage again with Sopel.
270, Cameron = Gene Hunt!
270. Floater, who is responsible for the cameraman’s great interest shown on the back of the head of Cameron?
270. I understand why Cameron’s said that, and I sympathise but he’s got to know that it’s a bullsh1t appeal to the lowest common denominator. The whole point of ‘human rights’ is that you can’t ‘leave them outside’. They’re applicable under all circumstances.
Which isn’t to say I’m not in favour of giving burglars a bit of a kicking. But this sort of rhetoric is clumsy, and faintly dishonest. Cameron should have concentrated on stating his commitment to safeguarding home-owners from prosecution under these circumstances, rather than going all Ray Winstone on our asses.
270/271 There’s something about invading someone’s home that is wrong in every respect - you don’t get there by accident and you aren’t there to secretly tidy up or fill the place with fresh flowers.
If someone broke into my house and I was in it - I’d be terrified and either freeze or grab something large and heavy to attack them with.
And of course, the burglar could be allergic to pet hair, in which case he’d be incapacitated within minutes
I just want it verified one way or another if Brown’s actions in the Mail are true, and that he is violent and certifiable.
275 I agree, up to a point.
He should have said they leave ’some’ of their human rights at the door.
The trouble is, if you are in the house when someone breaks in you don’t know they are ‘only’ there to burgle and you haven’t got time to establish a relationship.
Must be utterly terrifying.
Is it just me or are prisoners having Facebook and Twitter accounts the *right* things?
275 “The whole point of ‘human rights’ is that you can’t ‘leave them outside’. They’re applicable under all circumstances.”
And that is the whole point that people object to - that they are actually an abuse of decency, when people cry “Oi - observe my human rights” when they have put themselves in a position which SHOULD suspend any entitlement to the cloak of protection that human rights provide. People are simply not buying into the universal applicabilty of human rights.
Under equitable principles, it is held that “those who come to equity must come with clean hands”. This should be applied to human rights too.
275. Human rights are forfeitable. It is a human right to live where you like, come and go as you please and within limits do what you like. If you are convicted of a crime and sentenced to prison those rights are massively curtailed. Human rights are therefore not “applicable under all circumstances”.
276 Is it a basic human right not to have to step in cat pooh??
Great Coffee House article:
“As Fraser noted yesterday, the press’ climate change narrative is shifting – scepticism, in its proper sense, is replacing blind subscription. In this context, Miliband’s comments are extraordinary. His intellectual complacency is irritating, his sanctimony nauseating and his hypocrisy palpable.”
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/5742248/its-war.thtml
282 Not when you cross the threshold in my house - I guarantee that someone will have missed the tray or tipped it up the moment I’ve cleaned it
275 AndrewG.
I am afraid that I must disagree.
The local police tell me that if:
(a) I put sharp glass on the top of my wall to deter burglars that I am commiting an offence as anyone climbing my wall could injure themselves. They could not give a good reason as to why people would want to climb a wall rather than come in the gate.
(b). If I electrify my doors and windows (with 1000 volts) when out or at home , even with putting up a warning notice, I am committing an offence.
However, they could not define my human rights as a citizen not to be burgled or assaulted.
Human rights are taken away from people all the time. What’s prison? The law seeks to establish a framework where one person’s human rights don’t impinge too far upon another’s, and if they do, we seek to take some away.
The second time I got burgled, I was in the house asleep with my seven year old son asleep in bedroom next door. I’ve have had problems with insomnia since then. It’s not just material things you lose. I’m definately with Cameron on this one, if anyone comes into your home etc.
By the way , that was 1983.
Did Mandy get chopped from the Politics Show?
Cameron is trying to give political voice to the average man or woman’s point of view. That is long overdue.
He’s not gonna bring back the noose. More’s the pity.
275 AndrewG
The whole point of ‘human rights’ is that you can’t ‘leave them outside’. They’re applicable under all circumstances.
You must remember the Tories are still in a draft manifesto phase. Once feedback has been integrated into final policy, I expect a change to a more moderate requirement.
Burglars will now be required to leave their green wellington boots at the door and to change into loafers before entering through a window.
Plato - coming up…
OMG - Mandy is on panto duty again
“Lord Mandelson has likened Conservative leader David Cameron to DJ Terry Wogan or singer Des O’Connor.
The Business Secretary described Gordon Brown as a “more authentic figure”, although he admitted that some people “don’t connect with him”.
Joking about posters showing a seemingly touched-up Tory leader, Lord Mandelson said: “There’s no airbrushing Gordon Brown like David Cameron did.”
He added: “It’s sometimes difficult to hairbrush Gordon Brown.”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8489892.stm
274 -I wouldn’t worry too much about this, there’s no substance behind it.
Watching Munir Husseins barrister make the point that the law is correct as it stands to Chris Grayling and the
empty response tells us it’s a stance not a policy.
Just part of Daves banging on the sides of the prison van persona which he prefers to policy detail
291 Thanks!
Stephen Hesford says he’s stepping down - but not because his seat his now a notional gain for the Tories…riiiight. Tory candidate on Politics Show has Cerebral palsy and interesting how difficult is it to argue with someone with a handicap without being seen to be a bully (the word of the day).
Mandy - we’ve come out of recession stronger than anyone anticipated.. I’ve heard enough right there.
292. Plato, you’ve probably already seen this:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/environment/article7009705.ece
My (smart, left-wing, rather right-on) brother texted me from Vancouver yesterday, apropos of nothing:
“hard to believe how fast climate science is falling apart”
We weren’t even discussing the issue before.
If people like him are having doubts…
HAHAHAH Tories are unpatriotic - really Mandy’s faux outrage is laughable.
I think a lot of you are arguing a position that doesn’t really exist outside of the Mail comments section. You have to be pretty excessive before you get prosecuted for giving a burglar a bit of a thrashing. If, say, you clout him with a cricket bat while he’s still in your house, and he doesn’t die, there’s not a court in the country that will convict you.
As I said, it’s not the policy, it’s the rhetoric. Populist appeals about ‘human rights’ in these circumstances make it harder to defend civil liberties in another context. I think education people on more abstract concepts like these would make the entire debate more sensible.
Angry Mandy!
Watch out for suicides in woods for those who talk down britain.
Presents a fresh face, nice, attractive - Mabdelson on Cameron ewww
297 SeanT - it’s amazing isn’t it, the sea change is massive - Pachauri’s bad sex book is hilarious. It is way beyond parody now.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/environment/climatechange/7111068/Revealed-the-racy-novel-written-by-the-worlds-most-powerful-climate-scientist.html
I notice Sopel doesn’t talk over Mandy the same way he did over Cameron.
299: AndrewG @ 13:09
“If, say, you clout him with a cricket bat while he’s still in your house, and he doesn’t die, there’s not a court in the country that will convict you.”
What happens of he does die, then? The act was the same, the intention was the same - so, in law, what difference is made by the outcome?
299 Householders shouldn’t be arrested and put through the trauma of months of worry that they MAY be convicted.
JS: Why are Lahbour constantly behind in the polls?
PM: The Country has taken a heck of a beating for the last 18 months…
Any references to Downing St Secretaries here are superfluous
To quote Mandelson, I am “intensely relaxed” about the polls.
If the straw clutching Labour supporters think it’s all going well on 31% (tops), then they are deluded.
The fact that the greedy public sector middle class and stupid shellsuit beclad doleites in places like Knowsley, Bootle and Manchester are firming up for Labour is irrelevant to the overall psephological picture. Take a look at last weeks NOTW marginals poll for what’s happening where it matters.
That said, it will encourage Team Brown to get cocky and they always screw up when that happens.
I have to say that Mandy saying that Des O’Connor and Terry Wogan aren’t ‘authentic’ is a very stupid thing to say.
258. Interesting Andy. I’d love to see your working out. A lot depends on the LibDem performance, and in general the better they do the harder it is for the Tories.
Your figures suggest that the Tories will do as well (if not better?) in the marginals as Labour did in 1997, which I think is optimistic. Also, the Tory performance in the marginals is likely to be related to how well they are doing overall is it not, and not a constant?
I’m a bit concerned by your probabilities too. To have a 95% chance of a majority this would imply (however it is arrived at) a central forecast of a Tory majority of around 17. I just don’t see an 8% lead being translated into that central forecast any way, anyhow. It would imply an average conversion rate of 22 gains for the Tories for each unit of national swing. In 1997, Labour, with almost twice this swing, got only 14.4…
FWIW the current KF (including the latest YouGov) is showing exactly an 8% lead.
Con 39.0
Lab 31.0
LD 18.5
Oth 11.5
The central probabilistic forecast is
Con 305
Lab 259
LD 51
SNP 10
PC 5
Oth 2
You seem to be suggesting that the Tories should end up around 331 on these figures. If you are asuming a house of 650, that rises to about 334. I just don’t see it, myself…
Mandelson is good. Very, very good.
He is the only media threat to the Tories in the Cabinet.
We may not like or trust him but it is impossible to avoid listening to him.
299- there’s not a court in the country that will convict you.
Yes, but the CPS will still try to prosecute.
where are my post’s going?
303. Sopel knows the consequences!
Why is Mandy not leader?
302. Even the BBC, previously a madrassa of man made warmism, is now sounding the first mild hints of climate scepticism:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8488395.stm
“It is obvious that the next IPCC report will have to be much more meticulous.. though that will throw up issues of its own for a body striving to offer a coherent view to policymakers of an issue dominated by risk, uncertainty and values, rather that unambiguous science.
“Just this week, for instance, there were two pieces of published research in Science and Nature suggesting that the very worse effects of climate change may have been overestimated.
“The researchers of both papers say they are still concerned about man-made climate change, though.
The unfinished science of climate change goes on.”
The *unfinished science*? I thought it was all done and dusted because 300,000 scientists had all agreed we were gonna boil by Wednesday. Now it is “unfinished”.
A sea change indeed.
Mandelson: “Gordon Brown is an authentic figure”
Indeed, he’s an authentic, pure 100% tw@t
during the election campaign, when mandy is introduced to an audience this should be played beforehand.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Gx0WwRN-6Q
312 Because most of the Labour Party don’t like him?
Mike wont accept my post’s under my new e-mail address. mighty peculiar if you ask me.
I am a member and like the guy. But then again he does represent a progressive agenda, unlike most of the dinosaurs who are members now.
287
Hmmm 1983 don’t believe it burglary only happens when Labour are in power.
Back in the late 80’s I was living in a close where everyone was burgled apart from us. I started to feel offended, why not, aren’t we good enough? Some of the neighbours started too query why we hadn’t been, began to think they suspected me. Fortunately the person, (one very young lad) was caught.
304. Well, if the guy dies, it’s a bit more serious, but I still suspect common sense will out.
305, 311. No, they probably shouldn’t have that hanging over them. So that’s somewhere where we could sharpen up within the bounds of existing law- expediting these sort of investigations for what is still a pretty rare occurrence. Apparently, “between 1989 and 2004 only 11 people were charged with responding in any way violently to being burgled.”
http://uk.news.yahoo.com/11/20100121/tpl-no-change-in-law-for-victims-of-burg-0a1c1a1.html
So we’re clearly already in a situation where a fair amount of lee-way is allowed.
A lot of urban myth peddling on here about how many householders are arrested or prosecuted for attacking intruders.
Would someone like to post some figures rather than echoing Daily Mail comments threads.
312 - Will you be following the Delingpole and voting against warmist politicians?
Mission accomplished by Cameron on PS
BBC most 3rd most popular story
“A Conservative government would not make “swingeing cuts” to public spending during its first year, party leader David Cameron has said.”
And Mandy got Des O’Connor and Sir Terry.
320 - Thanks AndrewG, thats what I thought, less than one per year.
Heres the Home Office guidance, even down to people who die
http://www.homeoffice.gov.uk/documents/householder-defend-intruder2835.pdf?view=Binary
Dave is just playing to the gallery.
270: Presumably Cameron doesn’t actually mean what he says - if taken literally, it would mean that if someone comes in uninvited you can torture them to death. The difficulty faced by everyone framing the law on this is distinguishing between hard cases (epitomised by the celebrated case of a repeated burglar shot by booby trap and left to die), and Cameron’s populist comment doesn’t actually address that at all.
321. Posted some figures for you, tim, @320. Thoroughly in your camp today.
More Gerrymandering From Labour
Iain Dale 12:57 PM
Last year Labour set up something called the Strategic Investment Fund to prop up struggling industries. According to the News of the World, 96% of the £521.5 million so far spent by the fund has gone to companies in Labour held constituencies, with LibDem seats getting the remaining 4%.
If this is true, it is surely a huge scandal. Are there really no companies in Tory held constituencies who needed help?
We all know that the Labour government is corrupt above is such one instance.
270
Already bought my AK47 off ebay, can’t wait for the first chav to come into the drive.
‘Bob a job week! why didn’t you say something’
Tory lead…
http://www.titanictown.plus.com/hp/lead.png
Timberrr!!!
319 - 319 - don’t be daft. I’ve been burgled under both Tory and Labour, 3 times in total. That was the one that was the most distressing because we were in the house when it happened. If it happened again, I’m not sure what I would do, I might well hide under the bed, make them a cup of tea or go completely native..
321-Tony Martin was not a myth. Wonder how many people have avoided being burgled because Fred Barras is no longer with us. Shame he missed the other upstanding member of the community, Mr Brendon Fearon. Job description, career criminal. ‘Nuff said!
320. The only climate change skepticism I have heard from any senior politician of any major party came from David Davies, the Tory. So if this were to be the main issue guiding my vote, yes I would vote Tory.
(as it happens I’m probly gonna vote LD as a protest against Tory gayness and cause its the best way of hurting Labour in my constituency, as discussed on here before).
But you haven’t told us yr position? You’ve previously sneered at climate change skeptics on the right as being wackos and idiots. Now, suddenly, the tide has turned, are you quite so sure of yr position? Are you wholly convinced by the IPCC? Do you not have any doubts at all?
You strike me as not entirely unintelligent. The intelligent position in this present fast-moving situation is skepticism, not denial - skepticism. Labour are incapable of being skeptical on this issue cause it just ticks too many of their emotional boxes.
I do agree with you about nucleae power, though. It is the obvious and inevitable solution.
324.. NPMP: Like all Labour politicians you enjoy putting word’s into peoples mouths that weren’t said or meant.
You like twisting the fact’s. But what can you expect from a twisted party.
Afternoon all,
After yesterday’s revelations on British Social Attitudes Survey (BSAS) I thought I’d do some digging because it raised more questions than answers for me?
I’ve been trying to make sense of the political proportions used by pollsters in an attempt to identify whether they use a particular set of assumptions regarding the national political make-up demography as a base (i.e. BSAS, Last GE etc).
However, having made an initial check of the latest polls of each of the pollsters, I am only a little further forward. Whilst there are some hints of how pollsters might be viewing this there is little consistency (when is there with pollsters?). Of course there is an argument that the last thing you want to do in a political poll is somehow restrict it with political assumptions. However, if you are using past vote, spiral of silence etc I can only assume there is some base assumption to allow them to then weight the poll.
So far, and recognising that assumption, it seems possible to me that ICM and Comres are both basing their findings loosely on the last GE vote shares? The political make-up of their latest polls resembles (+/-4%) the make-up of the electorate in 2005. Populus, Yougov and Mori on the other hand could be basing their figures on the BSAS 2007 (their latest polls +/-2% of that survey) or a previous survey (as BSAS figures have been relatively similar for much of the preceding 20 years)?
The one pollster that stands out in stark contrast to all these is Angus Reid whose polls have a political make-up more representative of the 2008 BSAS figures. The latest ARPO poll gives the main parties the following vote shares:-
Con 32 Lab 20 LD 16.
The BSAS 2008 survey gave the figures:
Con 32 Lab 25 LD 9
Given the expenses debacle occurring in the interim and the general consistency of the Conservative vote and the volatility between Labour and Lib-dem vote shares it is possible to see how the Angus Reid figures are in line with BSAS 2008.
The key thing here is that the latest BSAS report with findings from 2008 indicated a sea change in the political make-up of this country with more people saying they are Conservative than Labour for the first time since 1989 (an 8% swing since 2007).
Now if this is the case then and if (and it’s a big if) pollsters are using some base assumptions regarding the political make up of the country, it is quite feasible that the polls are not telling the whole story.
At which point, it is worth noting that that is the point which Nick Palmer’s excellently and most plausibly crafted post@ 128 seems to ignore. There is evidence of a sea-change in the political make-up and if (and it is still a relatively speculative if) that is true and the pollsters through no fault of their own have missed it then it is possible that Angus Reid have got it right and the rest of the pollsters are going to be a wee bit off because all their assumptions are motivated by the failures of 1992 and 1997 and as BSAS highlights there is a possibility that something fundamental (that this is predominantly a Labour country) that pre-dates those errors may well have changed.
Anyway I don’t know if Mike or anyone can provide further information regarding this because it is only hypothetical speculation at this stage and I recognise that when people start pointing to something that goes against the flow how implausible it seems to some?
Oh and as a postscript I’m not making anything of the BPIX poll because of Mikes many observations and also because isn’t a lot of their ground work done by Yougov? Therefore all it sounds like to me is yet another noisy Yougov style poll.
328. ‘Timberrr!!!’
Better put a mattress out Rod if you know you are going to fall on your face!
327. You wouldn’t know the the difference between an AK47 from a Galil, Coldstone.
291 tim: it is legitimate for politicians to express approval for, and attempt to promote,social policies by other means than legislation. The minister for schools for instance is rightly concerned about the alarming reluctance of the youth of today to text sms death threats to random strangers but has decided to combat this menace by example rather than by imposing a more rigid framework of legal reuirements and minimum targets.
319
Errr I might have had my tongue in my cheek, sorry about your burglary. I believe a very large dog may be the solution, its the one thing that burglars hate.
331
Hmmm vote against Tory gayness? When I suggested that the fact that one of the Tory PPC’s in this area was gay, may not do him any favours, the blue herd went for my throat: I’m waiting.
333. Keep up the good work jsfl. Perhaps you will open your own polling institute, if so, let me know.
334. Wailing and Gnashing of Teeth never have trumped Mathematics, my dear, and they never will…
331
as it happens I’m probly gonna vote LD as a protest against Tory gayness and cause its the best way of hurting Labour in my constituency, as discussed on here before).
Hmmm I do hope runnymede and others will make their usual attacks on such a homophobic statement.
329. Wear a mask Kristin, that will frighten some, but not all of them; it would sure frighten me.
3 times did you say? Wow!
My friend who’s a UKIP member has been telling the following story. A group of Americans were visiting No10. They were supposed to meet Gordon Brown but he was late. They started eating some food that was available. When Gordon Brown arrived they continued eating the food. Gordon Brown was most upset that they didn’t stand to attention when he walked in and some unpleasantness ensued.
I’ve no idea whether this is what the Daily Mail are referring to. I would have thought that Claire Short’s revelation that Gordon Brown spent the Iraq war in some sort of nervous breakdown because he was concerned that if the Iraq war was successful he would be sacked much more damaging
320, 323. But how many people have had the threat of being charged hanging over them for months, and then had it dropped by the CPS at the last moment?
333. I wish I had the knowledge to do so.
The thing is I’ve had this nagging feeling for a long time that if there were as sea change in political opinion (BSAS 2008 suggests it might have happened) that the pollsters could be in for as rough a ride as they were in 1992 and 1997.
The glass on walls and electric windows and doors protection systems argument for protecting one’s home has more to do with protecting firemen and the police in case of emergency I believe… That you can’t use these measures doesn’t stop you protecting a house, its what you use is the issue.
The same with weapons to protect yourself, a kitchen knife in a bathroom is more “awkward” than say a cut throat razor, and baseball bats, whilst well suited to club somebody, a cast iron ornament in a bedroom makes the case for finding a body in your house after protecting less “pre-meditated”
This was the advice by a Bobby given to an audience
How many homeowners are threatened, injured or worse by burglars in execution of a crime every year ?
Burglaries are much more than they originally seem as they take away your feeling of safety in the one place most people want to feel safe, one’s own home.
Re 343. it was intended for Weathercock @ 337
Correction to a previous post
Kilmarnock & Loudon; I made an error in previous calculations for 2007 on a previous thread.
Correct figures for 2007 (I think!)
Party, 2005, 2007
Lab, 47%, 36%
SNP, 28%, 37%
Con, 11%, 11%
LD, 11%, 5%
338 RodCrosby, I will only say this once!
Labour are going to lose and lose big enough that berks like you will be mourning for years.
Get used to it!
339. I wasn’t aware the homosexual community had actually taken out a copyright on the word “gay” such that it necessarily means “homosexual”.
This would be a plenteous irony given that they previously stole the term from the community of happy people, amongst whom it meant light-heartedly gleeful and gladsome.
As far as I know, the word gay now means “naff, sad, lamentable and weak”, and it is with this contemporary sense in mind that I use the term.
(I also think the Tory party is totally minty, but let’s not go there)
333 jsfl - great post.
348. “RodCrosby, I will only say this once!”
Somehow I don’t think you mean that…
I refer you to the answer I gave a moment ago to your dishonourable friend…
We live out in the backwoods in Annandale, with our nearest neighbours a fair distance away. We do, however, have 4 dogs, including a well-trained German Shepherd. All the dogs and I are very grateful we have my wife here to protect us …
350 Kristin
Thanks, I’d just like to get to the bottom of it because all it does is create a sense of greater uncertainty which is the last thing you need on a betting site!
352 But for uncertainty, there would be no betting anywhere, jfsl.
349.. (I also think the Tory party is totally minty, but let’s not go there)
by SeanT January 31st, 2010 at 1:52 pm
I too have grave doubt’s about how the Tory party will act should they come to power. Minty isn’t the word I would use; perhaps flinty would be more appropriate.
Having said that, I have grave doubts about any party having the gut’s and determination to turn britain around: MP’s are continually worried about their seats. What this country need’s is a complete overhaul. An MOTon Britain would best describe it.
“277.I just want it verified one way or another if Brown’s actions in the Mail are true, and that he is violent and certifiable.”
Ha haha, just thought - the evil closet totalitarian wannabe Stalinist b******s changed the law so it only takes one doctor to section people - God that would be sweet justice if he was got by the same law.
I would be a lot more sympathetic to climate change sceptics if I did not have a vague feeling that all they are really interested in is being able to drive big cars and use as much energy as they want to without having to pay any money to do it. They have an agenda every bit as transparent as the extreme climate change advocates.
On what Cameron said about burglars, presumably he believes that when they leave your house they also get their human rights back. So the recent case that attracted all the beadlines is actually of no relevance.
353. To true PtP. Good point.
355 Liam Fox ?
356, this sceptic doesn’t own a car or possess a licence.
345 - The good news is that there are far fewer of them than there used to be. Crime is going down. Ask Boris Johnson.
359 - There will always be exceptions.
Guido tweets..
guidofawkes
404 years ago today a protestant Scottish tyrant tortured Guy Fawkes to death, now its payback time for Presbyterian Scottish tyrants Gordon
Idle tweet or something he’s been saving up ?
The Tories have been in opposition for over 12 years, with none of the responsibilities of Government, yet they still seem to be making up policy on the hoof just a matter of weeks before the election.
That certainly doesn’t inspire me to think that they have a coherent programme for government.
362 The ambiguity won’t help the sense of paranoia in the Bunker, though!
I wonder what the policy would be if it was 2 MP’s ( of any flavour ) being held in Somalia ? It’s a toughie, paying ransom just encourages them.
362 Kristin
Since he said tyrants (plural) maybe he was including Andy Murray?
I’ve faced faced intruders three times (in Africa where the law is more forgiving) - once a guy high on something with a very large knife, who tried to kill me several times but was luckily too high to react when I jumped away keeping out of his reach until he heard help arriving and ran (returning twice more over day before I had locals ready for my call and hue and cry chased him off for good), twice burglars, first time I had what looked like a dangerous rifle (didn’t work as mechanism was damaged)and a 6 week alsatian puppy teeth bared but yapping but obviously the rifle looked fearsome enough so they ran, the second time I heard them trying to force the door, the alsatian had grown to 28ins at shoulders and I had a can of tear gas and a 2 foot screwdriver which made a useful club and when they saw me and the dog they really ran.
The worry I have is that the adrenalin is high, the anger is overwhelming and the desire to kill difficult to master. Had I had weapons I could have used I would have and I wouldn’t have let them escape. It’s difficult to describe the rage, the red mist. A law which at least puts some brakes on anger is necessary.
331 - My position on climate change is that I think the chances of it being man made and serious are somewhere between 0 and 100%, where on that scale I neither know nor care as we should cut our carbon output by up to 50% because it will save us money and increase our quality of life.
Move to Nuclear power ASAP.
Insulate our houses.
Send our kids to school in buses rather than cars
An allotment for every house that wants one.
Develop smaller fuel efficient cars.
Bingo , done the required emissions savings, reduced dependence on dodgy oil states,cut our electricity bills,made our childrens lives safer and reduced the need for a second car,grown some food that tastes good and had some exercise and limited the temptation to look like a knob head in a 4by4.
And left the zealots on both sides of the climate debate to carry on masturbating.
363. They have gambled everything on their “front man” carrying the day. Looks like a poor decision.
128 NPMP
Nick, my apologies, I seem to have missed a whole chunk of this thread including your long comment addressed to me. I was distracted by hoping in vain for a British win in the tennis, and then undone by having to settle for a Scottish loss.
I entirely accept that we all come to polls from a position of party political prejudice and see in their data what we need to support our preferred outcome. The better gamblers here may be more circumspect but I suspect this is only a matter of degree.
I agree that the most recent polls suggest a slight tightening in the Tory lead but not to anywhere near the extent suggested by the MORI and YouGov headline figures. The sampling inconsistencies identified by jsfl and Another Richard are valid criticisms even if they don’t necessary tell the whole story. What they do show is that there is probably much less volatility out there than is being suggested and discussed in the media.
As to your canvassing returns not showing a 33% drop in Labour support from 2005, I have to accept this at face value. You are far more experienced in canvassing than I and particularly in your own patch. What I tend to do is compare your comments to those from other reliable sources, e.g. Yellow Sub, which are pointing to how “soft” the Labour vote is out there. You answered this point on an earlier thread by pointing out that support for all parties is “soft” due to current disaffection with politicians, but I am not convinced it applies equally to all parties.
As to the current lead being 9-10%, I think 2-3% has to be added to get the England & Wales figure and probably a little more when assessing East Midlands seats. And this is before applying any further adjustments based on differential turnouts or tactical voting impact.
All this means I can’t share your view that NOM is the most likely outcome, even though we may well see a further narrowing of the Tory lead. My gut feeling (supported by filtering out from polls and commentary what I need to support it) is that we are still heading for a Tory landslide majority, but I accept that the polls and betting spreads showing a 50 +/- 10 seat majority are rightly indicating the favourite outcome.
There is still much time for all of us to change our expectations though.
367 - But that means poor old Jeremy Clarkson won’t be able to drive all those cars anymore.
Ok, I’m off to watch Moon, to see how Duncan Jones dealt with HIS Oedipus Complex. Before I go:
359. Ditto.
366. Crikey.
and one other totally irrelevant point. Today I visited arguably one of the world’s loveliest buildings, and one of its ugliest. The loveliest was Banteay Srei, an astonishing temple even by the standards of Angkor:
http://angkorwattuktuk.files.wordpress.com/2009/03/bayteay-srei.jpg
Not sure any photo does it justice. A tenth century shrine where every inch of stone is covered with intense and exquisite carvings. Quite something.
And the ugliest was Pol Pot’s House:
http://www.flickr.com/photos/travelfishery/375157831/
A urinous concrete toilet surrounded by minefields, jungle, and eerie lakes full of dead trees. Deeply weird and unsettling.
Here’s one more photo of Banteay to end on a good note. Aw kohn.
http://www.jadedragon.com/graphics/BanteaySrei2.jpg
369 - I completely agree with that. Here in the midlands (except, perhaps in Nott and Derbyshire if NPMP is right, the anti-Labour mood is palpable. The West Midlands is likely to prove as miserable for Labour as the East. And the idea of Labour holding any seats in the South outside of the big cities is laughable - and even then it will probably be only London where they still have a presence. The Tories are going to have a 60-plus majority the day after the election. The only thing preventing a 100 seat majority like in 1983 will be the relative tenacity of the LDs and a slightly lower swing in the north of England.
356. I would have an ounce of sympathy for brain washed warmists from the cult of Al Goridian if they spent 5% of the effort they put in to raising taxes and railing against capitalist progress into reducing pollution and conserving resources by the advancement of science.
Fact is they are all “watermelons” or carbon trading scamsters.
Mandy’s theme tune should be:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s46SgIBpQ-Q&feature=related
“As to the current lead being 9-10%, I think 2-3% has to be added to get the England & Wales figure and probably a little more when assessing East Midlands seats”
The electoral system and UNS already discount this fact.
Don’t you remember? Tories were slightly ahead in England in 2005, despite being 3% behind nationally. It didn’t do them much good, did it? - and it won’t be any different next time. In any case, the polls are currently saying a lead of 8%, not “9-10%”
Please do some basic research on the electoral system…
“Apparently, “between 1989 and 2004 only 11 people were charged with responding in any way violently to being burgled.”
Any stats on the number of people stabbed, raped, tortured or murdered by burglars/home invaders because they weren’t sure how much force they could use and hesitated too long?
Important thing is people should be absolutely clear they can do what it takes to neutralise a potential threat in their own home so they react without hesitation as if you hesitate 9/10 it’ll be too late.
373 - That Prince Charles, he’s such a leftie. Him and Zac Goldsmith.
376 - If people are capable of making any kind of assessment as described by you then reasonable force is surely absolutely fine.
358 Lolz yes - get Fox to section him.
379 - Does Single Vaccine Liam have a licence to practice?
I’m just popping in to say that, for once, Cameron has made the right call on cuts. Let’s see if he can take George Osborne and his party with him. As I posted here a couple of weeks back:
“As Tim says, the main reasons for Osborne planning an early slash-and-burn budget are political: he wants to get the pain out of the way early. But in terms of government policy - ensuring that the cuts are placed on the programmes that can bear them; that it’s the “fat” of government that is cut and not the bones; and that the cuts don’t hamper the economic recovery - it would be far better to hold a detailed spending review and make the most severe cuts in spring 2011. Osborne should instead use a summer 2010 budget to make a few symbolic cuts, unveil a deficit reduction target, and reassure the markets with a promise of greater (and sustained) austerity to follow.
There has been a lot of talk about following the example of Paul Martin’s budget cuts in mid-1990s Canada. It would be well to remember that the Liberals took office in the autumn of 1993, but Martin didn’t enact his “Hell or High Water” budget until the spring of 1995. In between Martin prepared the government and the public for the cuts that were to come.
by Jack Peterson January 16th, 2010 at 11:32 am”
333 jsfl - very thought provoking post - it reminds me of generals planning their shopping lists based on the last war not what’s likely to happen when things change dramatically like Afghanistan.
I can quite well believe that Labour is now suffering from embarrassed voter syndrome, but I think it’s more likely that these voters aren’t planning on voting for them and have either decided to stay home or have switched back into Tories.
I don’t know any Labour voters this time around. Dan Hannan had a very amusing post about when canvassing for the Euros he couldn’t find anyone who was going to vote Labour and offered £10 to the first person who did.
He eventually found someone - and when asked if they were planning to vote - said ‘erm no’.
My crap Googling skills means I can’t find it
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/
Ermm… This puts the lead at 9.4. which is, I would suggest 9-10%.
And UKPR has a 10% lead.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/uk-polling-report-average
People aren’t sure what “reasonable force” is though - or rather they have a very clear view of what they think it *should* mean but they’re not sure if the powers that be have the same view.
UKPR polling average - Con lead 10%:
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/
No further comment required - everyone will be more than able to draw their own conclusions.
182.”175 I’d say the opposite is true - most lobby journalists will know all about Brown’s temper, the question is why is he getting away with it?”
Plato, agreed. We just have to remember the clear evidence of Brown’s temper when being interviewed by various interviewers last Autumn. And as to why he gets away with it, we need to ask a few journalists that question. You could see the sheer animosity that Brown feels towards Bradby the last time he interviewed him, Brown should not let that show but he does.
383. Baxter, AFAIK, uses either “simple averaging” or “simple weighted averaging”, which are sub-optimal in arriving at the best estimate of support today. It gives too much weight to older polls in other words. Simple averaging would have ensured Apollo 11 missed the moon by a hundred thousand miles. The Kalman Filter got it there and back in one piece…
388.
But the Crosby filter throws out pollsters whose results you don’t like.
386. His weighting system is also likely to be sub-optimal (just guesswork), and in case case he doesn’t seem to have got round to updating his site with the latest polls…
The plank is thataway >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Next!
@388: But UKPR weights according to age of poll, amongst other things (including the transparency of the pollster, and the avoidance of over-representing any particular pollster in the sample set).
However, you are, of course, entitled to your own technique.
Questions for Gordon Brown at the Chilcot Enquiry -
Could someone ask Gordon Brown to tell us about the organisation he and President Obama are speaking about, called Common Purpose?
What is it for?
Does Gordon Brown believe Kelly was murdered?
Who is covering up the murder of Dr Kelly?
How are they getting away with it?
Are any Local Authority employees, who are Members of Common Purpose, involved in managing the General Election?
Does Brown deny that Common Purpose intends to become the new government of post-democratic Britain?
389. Wrong!, change your moniker to LondonInnumerate…
Thataway >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Next!
393
You including ARS now?
@390: You might like to refresh your cache; it even includes the BPIX from yesterday (with a suitably low weighting!)
There’s a pretty good description of the weighting system on the details page.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/uk-polling-report-average
248.”246 - The Twins came very close to be being born on Wednesday. But they should be induced sometime in the next 6 weeks, all being well.”
TSE, I did wonder if this was the reason for your absence from PB.com. Both of you get lots of rest over the next few weeks.
394. Makes no difference. It’s drowned out by the majority of other polls, and rightly so…
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
385 - It’s juries that decide, not the powers that be.
“Makes no difference.”
Are you, or are you not?
395. Guesswork, with no statistical basis…
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Here is the chart of the shadow government of Britain, with Peter Mandelson at its head. Post-democratic Britain is being created by steps, one of which is the Hung Parliament, and another the emasculation of MPs. http://tinyurl.com/ygclm72
“Here is the chart of the shadow government of Britain”
No it isn’t.
356 “I would be a lot more sympathetic to climate change sceptics if I did not have a vague feeling that all they are really interested in is being able to drive big cars and use as much energy as they want to without having to pay any money to do it. They have an agenda every bit as transparent as the extreme climate change advocates.”
A very vague feeling indeed. I drive a hyper-economical car, and heat my house as little as possible, from reasons of economy and because burning fuel causes pollution. I just don’t like being patronised or lied to, or to see academic standards debased and corrupted and intellectual freedom treated as a joke.
399. Yes and No.
I’ve run it through, and all it does is wildly see-saw the the estimate whenever ARS happen to be in the field.
Can’t be ARSed publishing such nonsense…
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
404
So it’s producing movements you don’t like, so you get rid of it. Uhuh.
Did you include the YouGov poll showing a 7% Tory lead?
398 Juries don’t decide if an individual hesitates or not when confronted with an intruder. People (imo) need to be certain that they can defend themselves. Currently they’re not.
Not reported much apart from little snippets is this nugget from the newspaper El Mundo in Spain, The article looks to be subscription only so here is what the People had to say.
Tony Blair has blamed weak political leadership for the war in Afghanistan being unpopular.The ex-PM claimed more people would support military action if they understood the threat posed by Islamic extremism. His apparent swipe at Gordon Brown came after he was asked why so many Brits opposed sending troops. He replied:
Mr Blair hit out in an interview with Spanish newspaper El Mundo, which he gave last year but has only just been published following his appearance at the Chilcot Inquiry.
Not often I agree with Blair!
402. David, Do you not know anything about the actions of the supposed Charity ‘Common Purpose’? Hit http://www.cpexposed.com.
Is it just me or are that poor couple held hostage by pirates being left to twist in the wind?
It’s like some weird parallel universe that someone gets KIDNAPPED by PIRATES and it’s media YAWN time
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/jan/31/paul-rachel-chandler-pirate-captive
405.
“So it’s producing movements you don’t like, so you get rid of it. Uhuh.”
No, it’s producing movements which are contrary to the laws of the Universe…
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
375 Rod Crosby
Have you had a good lunch?
Please define “the electoral system” insofar as it applies to the context of your post.
Please define “Uniform National Swing” and explain how it “discounts” differential regional and constituency swings.
Don’t you remember? Tories were slightly ahead in England in 2005, despite being 3% behind nationally. It didn’t do them much good, did it? - and it won’t be any different next time.
What do you mean by “didn’t do them much good”. Is this a technical term? Is it measurable? Can it be expressed in a formula?
Rod, you are more helpful when cloaked by the sobriety of early morning hours.
We are all prepared to learn here. We just need a teacher of credibility that can communicate.
I notice that Rawnsley’s book is due to be published on 1 March. Presumably it will be serialised a couple of weeks beforehand - the main contenders these days seeming to be The Sunday Times and the MoS. I wonder whether the latter lost out on this occasion and today’s piece was intended as a spoiler against whoever was the successful bidder?
Equally, it might have been intended as an MoS “taster” for what’s still to come. After all, they must have obtained the story from somewhere.
407 Sorry about bold
“No, it’s producing movements which are contrary to the laws of the Universe…”
Uhuh.
Did you include the YouGov poll with the 7% Tory lead?
re 397. On what basis do you make these statements Rod?
And we all know you know nothing about polling as you demonstrate every time you come on here.
You just reject anything that does not fit with your desired outcome.
Apply some intellectual rigour man.
406 - But they can defend themselves. They can do so with reasonable force. What they can’t do is chase burglars down the road and beat them up with cricket bats because that is not self-defence. Neither can they kill intruders if the intruder is running away.
However, even if you go beyond reasonable force, it is likely that you will be judged leniently.
412 - I read somewhere the Observer had it and the Mail was an attempted spoiler. Now, where ? That’s the thing..
412 - Can Rawnsley sell serialisation rights to the ST or MoS if he is employed by The Observer?
Poll leads of 7%, 8%, 9% (x3) 11%,and 16% (the past week’s 7 polls) don’t generate an average lead of 8%, unless one is using a strange system.
310.”Mandelson is good. Very, very good.
He is the only media threat to the Tories in the Cabinet.
We may not like or trust him but it is impossible to avoid listening to him.”
Seth, I disagree with you about this. He just isn’t that good a media performer, but the MSM still seem to be in his thrall in an almost bashful middle age nod to a former teenage crush. C’mon, he comes out with the most outrageous statements these days like an old pantomime Dame, he really does seem to be sailing ever closer to the wind. And the media certainly seem to be letting him.
397 Rod, have you considered career opportunities with the IPCC?
a. Polling data contradicts your theory - dismiss
b. Polling data that supports it - include
c. Results from by-elections that fall into (b} - include
Now, I’m no expert but there seems to be a flaw in your model
417 Sorry if this link has already been posted, the story was apparently put up at 2:13pm:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1247357/Angry-Gordon-Brown-hit-aide-yanked-secretary-chair.html
If you think the average person is sure what they can and can’t do in that situation, fine. I know a lot of them who aren’t remotely sure, and those people, in that situation, would likely hesitate, and if the intruder did intend them physical harm then that hesitation is the difference between who gets hurt.
416 Southam Observer
What is wrong with our common law system?
The question is rhetorical, the answer being Statute Law taking precedence.
P.S.
Why don’t you join the Conservative Party? I can think of no one on pb.com they need more than you.
419. Average is 10%. But to a media instructed to create a narrative of shrinking Conservative leads and a Hung Parliament, this is entirely to be expected.
412.Peter, that was my first impression last night, I did wonder if one of the other Sunday’s had got the serialisation deal.
Sorry for boring you all with tweets, but came across this from Charlie Whelan
Just got message from old pal Graham Sharpe at William Hill. Hung Parliamnet odds slashed to 2/1. Says ‘Shrwed punters’ are on this.
(
Am i the only one who doesn’t really get this “insurance levy” on banks idea? If the insurance is paying for future bailouts then won’t that encourage risk taking so that the banks get their moneys worth?
Before posting, every poster should consider that what they say in the past will have an influence on the credibility of what they say in the future.
Suppose, hypothetically, that someone made hundreds and hundreds of posts saying Obama would be disqualified from being Predsident when it was blindingly obvious to everyone that there was no chance of this happening. (Not a 1% chance, not a 0.1% chance, but literally no chance).
Then if the same person later makes posts on other subjects people will have regard to that past record when assessing current posts.
“It is not known if the allegations referred to above have been included in the book.”
So the whole thing is just Mail mischief making.
420 Agree. The irony of the whole toff campaign is Mandy gives off the kind of negative toff vibes that Labour keep trying to pin on Cameron. So he might be good with some segments of the population byt he’s a major turn-off to at least one segment of Labour’s core vote.
393. RodCrosby: Wrong!, change your moniker to LondonInnumerate…
Ooh! An ad hominem! I am honoured.
The problem for you, Rod, is that you’ve already admitted as much, first excluding AR because it wasn’t a BPC member, and then changing your reason for excluding them (once they became a BPC member) to an assertion that their results aren’t in line with the rest of the industry (which is certainly an insufficient reason to exclude them).
This, coupled with your admitted bias, renders your numbers worthless.
428 I saw it as a variant of the ATOL scheme for airlines/package holiday firms.
Seems like a good idea to me - it removes the moral hazard issue that the banks can fail willy-nilly and buggins here will cough up to save them.
If this is coupled with more rigorous oversight of banking operations at the risky end, then I’m reassured - a bit more…
427. pathetic ramping
There appears to be an unending feud on PB between Rod Crosby and his detractors which frankly achieves very little.
I believe Rod is firmly on record as stating that both Labour and the Tories will win between 275 and 300 seats, thereby resulting in a hung parliament. Any outcome materially different from this will show him to have been foolish.
Why not wait for the next 13.5 weeks, maybe less, when all will be revealed, one way or t’other?
“David, Do you not know anything about the actions of the supposed Charity ‘Common Purpose’? Hit http://www.cpexposed.com.”
Wow - it’s on the internet, it must be true!
420. Common Purpose of which Mandelson is the effective head, has 1000 members in the BBC, and many others throughout all departments of government. He is far more powerful than Gordon Brown.
If democracy can be collapsed as they expect and intend, he would be the effective dictator of Britain.
It’s easy enough to sound good when you effectively own the place.
436. documentary evidence for all the claims is provided on http://www.cpexposed.com if you actually bother reading the files.
423 - The only way to get round the problem would be to say that people can do whatever they want to do. But surely that is wrong.
Everyone has the right to defend themselves and their families. What they do not have the right - note that word because it is important - to do is kill and maim indiscriminately. If a certain level of force is used then you may end up before a jury, which will then assess the evidence and decide whether what you did was reasonable or not. That seems perfectly reasonable to me.
435
The problem is Rod claiming spurious statistical backing and accuracy, while as the same time disparaging other models. If you are going to claim that sort of thing, you will be called on it.
Just a thought, did Skynews pull the MoS front page because it was deemed a spoiler to one of the Murdoch newspapers who might have got the deal to serialise the book?
miall. Thanks for the advice on Lake Bled. I’ll see if I can fit it in and report back.
“2010 is a vital year where freedom hangs in the balance. A vicious police state is being installed around us by means of a subversive common purpose political agenda. This must be exposed and thwarted for our children’s sake.”
Lt. Cdr. Brian Gerrish, Royal Navy, retd.
Who are we to argue?
Morning all.
Cameron has got it absolutely right on householders defending themselves. Personally one small change I would like to see is to change the law so that anyone engaged in a serious crime forfeits the right to claim any compensation for anything that happens in the process; thus Tony Martin would have still been liable for a criminal prosecution, but the burglars would not have been able to sue him in the civil courts.
As for the statistics on prosecutions brought against householders protecting themselves: wrong statistic. The important figure would be the number of people interviewed under caution in such circumstances - those are the ones who have suffered months of uncertainly and stress as a result of the law being lop-sided. I don’t know if that figure is available.
432 - To be fair there is no value in including ARS if you are using a methodology of aggregating polls across pollsters, since the whole theory is based on an assumption that all the methodologies are basically sound, with differences caused by natural sample variation.
ARS seem to be operating on a slightly different plane - whereby either they are right, or the others are. There is no even theoretical value in averaging in those circumstances.
Of course Mike, for example, rejects the whole basis of averaging, concentrating on the movements from one poll to the next, whilst trying to explain the differences between pollsters in terms of their methodology (whilst for historical reasons tending to favour those who give the worst Labour results).
So the problem is not Rod’s excluding of ARS from his methodology, the problem is his methodology.
It occurs to me that if Rod seriously believes in his own theory he should put up an updated piece on PB2 we can all study at leisure.
I would be interested in someone doing a piece on PB2 applying the regional splits in the recent “hung parliament territory” polls to the actual seats in these regions in order that we can see how likely a hung parliament is on e.g. a 7%, 8%, 9%, 10% etc Tory lead over Labour.
@427, @434
What I don’t understand is that, in my view, the “hung parliament” narrative is more likely to be to the Conservatives’ advantage - motivating the activists to get out every last vote, rather than wandering complacently to polling day “assured” of victory, only to receive a nasty surprise.
“If democracy can be collapsed as they expect and intend, he would be the effective dictator of Britain. ”
No it won’t and no he wouldn’t.
435,441 Christina - SNAP!!
439 We’re talking at cross purposes. You’re saying you’re sure. I’m saying a lot of people aren’t.
Cameron will get a boost from saying what he said today precisely because people aren’t sure where they stand and for a few moments they’ll be clear in their mind and content. Then there’ll be a reaction where the forces of evil aka guardian readers swarm round saying how what Cameron says was all wrong and people will go back to being unsure again.
415. “Intellectual rigour” is not usually associated with hyperbola, shooting the messenger, or playing to the audience, Mike.
We, the British People have a right to govern ourselves. That right has been subjugated as a consequence of acts of treason having been committed by the collective political establishment, aided and abetted by corrupt segments of the judiciary, the police, the Church and the civil service.
Furthermore, Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth II, whose position has been usurped by a corrupt House of Commons and who has been forced into the destruction of her Kingdom and the breaking of her Coronation Oath, no longer governs us in accordance with our laws and customs, as was the situation when she was elected by the people as our Sovereign and our Head of State.
Why Her Majesty has failed in her duty is not for us to judge at this point in time - Her Majesty has however been made aware of the situation and is now duty bound to make amends.
A political elite has for some time manipulated the electoral system to deprive the people of true democratic representation by constructing a party political system that has allowed, indeed encouraged, acts of treason to have been committed.
As a direct consequence of the betrayal of the British people by the collective political establishment, and others, the British Constitution Group is calling for Lawful Rebellion, as is our right under article 61 Magna Carta 1215.
Bloody hell, it’s serious. I imagine when my grandparents voted QE2 to the throne they did not imagine it would come to EU Marxists and Peter Mandelson taking the country over.
437. Because HM the Queen would be fine with that? Think, man. Think.
427 Kristin
The fact that Charlie Whelan is communicating with pals at William Hill indicates just how desperate Labour are to get the ‘hung parliament’ narrative to stick.
Wonder if a large punt came out of the party’s “account with no name”.
I like the way RodCrosby is putting
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
in all his postings. It makes them much easier to spot and ignore.
You’ve got to hand it to Tapestry. He’s always good value.
447 I quite agree - this whole hung parliament meme is just a media thingy to try and keep interest going by lobby journalists. The story should be about the massive split that’s opening up between South/Wales/Mid with the North/Scotland.
I’m perfectly happy if bored by pundits making an appearance fee to talk up NOM, but the prospect of this for another three or four months is
Can anyone recall what happened in 97? Was the story that Major was going to be mashed or that it was still hanging in the balance?
450 - I am saying the only way you can be sure is if the law states you can do whatever you like to a person who enters your home uninvited. To say otherwise is disingenuous because if you stop short of that complete freedom there will be a leve of uncertainty.
Having said what he did today, for a quick headline, Cameron will now be under pressure to explain what changes he will make to the law. It will be interesting to see what he comes up with.
429. If you are going to lie, at least try to be a bit subtle about it…
SKY and the EUBC work ‘for’ McLabour, they probably received a phone call from McDowning Street, protect England’s unelected Scotch Ayatollah or else!.
What does seem to have emerged over the course of this latest spat is Rod’s very serious dislike of the Tories in general and David Cameron in particular, of which I had not previously been aware.
Should the Tories gain a substantial majority, he will look all the more foolish as a result, i.e. the suspicion that heart had been ruling head.
447
sshhh
@457: From what I remember, the narrative was that Major was going to be completely marmalized, but that the Labour high command were terrified that they would fall short (hence the advanced plans for a Lib/Lab coalition, electoral reform etc. that were kicked into the long grass as soon as the scale of victory sunk in).
It also explains Labour’s lack of ambition in their first term - all their planning was in terms of managing a small majority and gaining re-election.
(At least, that’s what I understand from such weighty tomes as Servants of the People)
“Why not wait for the next 13.5 weeks, maybe less, when all will be revealed, one way or t’other?
by Peter from Putney January 31st, 2010 at 3:43 pm”
Well, indeed. Except this is a site for political betting and associated argumentation, and if we applied your logic the site would not exist at all, certainly there would be no comments. We should all just shut up and wait.
I see an existential flaw here.
458 He already has - two words ‘grossly disproportionate’ to replace ‘reasonable’ force.
Grossly disproportionate passes the WTF common sense test, reasonable is much more subjective as it infers that the victim is thinking ‘reasonably’ at the time.
Grossly disproportionate allows for someone who is scared witless to take action without locking the intruder in the cellar and removing their toenails before calling the plod.
@461: Nothing to see. Move along. *waves hands*. Look - a pigeon!
462 Mr Adams - thanks for that. I only recall Major repeatedly saying that they still could win blah blah when it was obvious that they were heading for the long plank walk.
At the time I wondered if he’d lost his senses
His memoirs were most reassuring!
419. Poll leads of 7%, 8%, 9% (x3) 11%,and 16% (the past week’s 7 polls)…
Opinion is not static, and…
no doubt you will be able to tell us what the result is going to be one week after the polls have closed.
Get outta here
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
263.268. oldnat & Rod Crosby, the irony of those two statements together does make me smile.
374.Mr Jones, that is spooky! I was watching Mandelson earlier in the week, and it reminded me of this Jungle Book clip so much I went and watched it. I thought, that is Mandelson’s tune!!
464 - Would it allow someone to chase an intruder down the street and beat him to a pulp with a cricket bat? Or shoot someone in the back and leave him to bleed to death?
“Grossly disproportionate allows for someone who is scared witless to take action without locking the intruder in the cellar and removing their toenails before calling the plod.”
So does reasonable.
458 SO The criminal law would not actually require to be changed. All that would be needed is for the English Attorney GEneral to issue a directive to the CPS setting out the conditions under which he would not expect a prosecution to be in the public interest and that would be that.
Here in Scotland the Lord Advocate (Scotland’s chief prosecutor who is not an elected politician or indeed a politician at all in the case of the present incumbent) issues guidelines to the PRocurators Fiscal Service and Crown Office as to what case types she does and does not expect to be prosecuted. As for sentencing policy, the Lord Justice General (Scotland’s chief judge) regularly issues guidelines after consulting the Justice Secretary to ensure it does not conflict with government policy.
447. Exactly, Matthew.
The reason they run the Hung Parliament narrative is because of the extent of voting fraud. They have to create the expectation of the result they have decided to deliver. The whole electoral process is theatre designed to mesmerise and deceive.
While people still believe they live in a democracy they will comply. Once they realise they are no longer living in a democracy, the country is permeated with an alternative structure which will use assassination, police brutality and threat to impose a dictatorial regime.
Most people have clocked that elections suffer from fraud. But they stop there. They should not close their minds and think. What are the intentions of a government that is determined to destroy democracy?
The Terrorist Acts are removing all civil liberties such as the right to trial by jury, double jeopardy, habeas corpus - until the state can do whatever it wills with any of us for its own purposes.
All it needs to do is to so corrupt the political system and defraud it, that it offers no defence to the people against government. The signs are all there. I’m pleased if alex is amused. He is not yet aware of the threat he faces.
451. Oh I forgot, he went to Cambridge
458 I don’t think there’s anything wrong with the law. I think the problem is people believe there’s a chasm between what they believe is reasonable and what the media-political-judicial class consider “reasonable”.
Most critically (imo) it should be made plain that it’s reasonable to strike first. There’s no sense waiting to fight back till after you’ve been stabbed.
468 Lol, he’s 100% Kaa in my book - i imagine him singing that tune whenever he’s on the telly.
464 Plato
We need a good criminal lawyer here. Is “reasonable force” a statutory provision or a common law concept? The courts have centuries of precedent in determining what is “reasonable”. Do they have similar experience with the qualifier “grossly”?
Perhaps one of pb.com’s learned friends could comment.
435. I said 250-300. I am also entitled to modify my opinion just like anyone else, in the light of new evidence.
How right do I have to be to avoid being labelled as “foolish”?
I’d prefer a statistically-justified answer, if poss, old bean….
469, 468, 464
Any test has to allow the householder to use more than reasonable force - by definition unlike the police who are trained in restraint - the normal householder does not know what is reasonable to restrain an offender (and note the police get it wrong sometimes too leading to unfortunate deaths in custody).
With the way it is at the moment, the householder seems better off in law despatching the burglar in some manner that can plausibly seem in self defence rather than leaving them alive - then there is no one to complain about ‘abuse of my human rights’
I’m not sure about whether the GB did manhandle one of his staff, which if he did, is a serious matter which does bring his ability to lead into sharp focus.
But there is another side to this which is rather worrying.
There seems to be a game of chess going on here, where one side, lets call them the anti-Browns (and they are the Tories plus half the Labour party it seems), appear to have a war chest of stories which they seem to produce at carefully staggered times in the lead up to the general election. And this story of workplace bullying is just the latest.
On the other side are the Brownites, who are just hunkering down and waiting and hoping that eventually the antis will just run out of ammunition.
The nearest analogy i can think of is that Camp-brown is like some old WW2 Tiger Tank that somehow is still going. Its gun is out of action, the turret no longer works, there are cracks in the armour from all the relentless shelling and bombing, and most importantly of all its radio no longer works so it cannot communicate with the outside world.
But its driver (Gordon Brown) has made an irreversible decision. The bridge that he crossed in his tank a few months back has been destroyed, he can’t go back, only forwards. But he can now see his enemy through his sights. He can’t shoot back at them because his gun is out of action, but they can still shoot at him.
However, the gun shooting at him is only a 7 pounder, and can’t penetrate his armour. So his has calculated that he can survive long enough and endure the incoming shells and hopefully run over his enemies and crush them; that meeting point being May 6th.
Now, as you can imagine, Gordon Brown the tank commander is going all the way on this one. He is shell shocked and has that glazed over look in his eyes, all he can think about is that cannon at the end of the road that keeps shooting at him, and he is dreaming about squashing them like grapes.
However, he has cracks in his armour. Although the shells cannot penetrate his thick skin, if one lucky shell finds one of those crack and drills through it, its game over, and he will literally be stopped in his tracks.
Or maybe he’s calculated that if they haven’t found that crack by now, they never will, and he will win.
Or maybe that 7 pounder gun pounding away is just a ruse to bring him into a dead end. And just round the next corner there’s a Howitzer just waiting to rip his turret off at point blank range.
Maybe, maybe , maybe……………
In the meantime Gordon Brown just rumbles on, forever onwards towards that gun emplacememnt at the end of the road. Bang, boing, bang, boing, bang, boing, go the shells on the outside. Gordon Brown, hearing all these ricochets, starts to grin manically. He’s almost there, only 600 yards to go, then grape juice. Muahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahah.
And all the time his terrified crew of 2, Balls and Cooper, (the 4th one bail out ages ago), are sitting at the back of tank watching their Commander becoming more and more possessed, and all the while thinking, “I could be fishing now beside a beautiful river”.
Then Gordon Brown lets a blood curdelling scream, “JAM TOMMORROW”.
Surely it would be better for this story to come out now, than in March, when we will be closer to an election? It makes more sense to get bad news out of the way early, so it will be forgotten in a few months. A narrative suggesting Brown has certain personality issues is surely not what Labour want just before an election campaign.
479 Recently trying to think up game changers in run up to election. Certainly a civil servant or SpAD laying a complaint against the PM for bullying or assault would be one, short of that its probably not, a book or talk would kill off Mandelson’s attempt to reinvigorate Not Flash certainly but no more than that.
Without an actual complaint, even if the story is headlined, Gordon only has to appear at a Monday press conference, tearful and talking about the attacks on his character for the Lobby to write supportive commentary.
“Whatever the veracity of the allegations they are the last thing that the beleaguered PM needs in the run-up to a crucial general election - and who could blame his team from doing everything possible to limit their impact?”
Quite right, we cannot allow the voters to know a mad man runs the place.