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Month: January 2010

The Tories maintain their 16pt lead with PB/Angus Reid

The Tories maintain their 16pt lead with PB/Angus Reid

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CON 40% (40) LAB 24% (24) LD 19% (20) The least volatile pollster retains it reputation There’s a new Angus Reid poll exclusively for Politicalbetting this afternoon and once again it shows almost no change on the previous poll taken at the start of January. Fieldwork took place from Tuesday until Wednesday evening and we’ll have links to the full data later on in the day. This is the third successive poll in the Angus Reid/PB series where the CON-LAB…

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Has the Telegraph been got at during the morning?

Has the Telegraph been got at during the morning?

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How did the “Lie Detector” become a “Credibility Meter”? The first screen grab from Daily Telegraph’s video coverage was taken at about 10.30am. Notice how the meter on the left hand side was described as a “Lie Detector”. The one below was done at 11.45am – and notice how this has now been renamed “Credibility Meter”. Has someone been batting very hard for Tony during the morning and if so who? There lies a story. Mike Smithson

What’s Blair’s appearance going to do to the election?

What’s Blair’s appearance going to do to the election?

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SkyNews Could this be a dangerous day for Mr. Brown? Getting on for seven years after he took that momentous decision Tony Blair will be quizzed in public for six hours today about what has become the defining policy of his administration – the invasion of Iraq in March 2003. We’ve had a taster already, from Alastair Campbell earlier in the month, of the approach the ex-PM is likely to take and we’ll be exposed again to that hugely capable…

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The money goes on a Tory majority of 56 seats

The money goes on a Tory majority of 56 seats

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How gamblers are seeing the election There’s hardly been any movement for months on the PB Index – the site’s attempt to extrapolate a general election result from how political gamblers are risking their cash on the party seat markets. Here it’s all about the balance of money with some punters wanting to sell and others wanting to buy. The PB Index is worked out by taking the mid-point spreads on the Betfair party line market and the spread betting…

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Will it be YouGov that “starts the campaign” – next month?

Will it be YouGov that “starts the campaign” – next month?

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What’ll the daily tracker do to the election frenzy? There has been nothing official from the firm but I’m hearing a lot of murmurings to the effect that the online pollster will be starting an election daily tracker – possibly next month. Apparently this will operate on weekdays only at first stepping up to seven polls a week as we get closer to the big day. The firm experimented with a tracker during the conference season in late September and…

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Can Brown pin his hopes on a shock result?

Can Brown pin his hopes on a shock result?

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Is it only the Blue Team that can defy the pollsters? As we ponder whether there are historical precedents for a party to defy the polling and go on to win an election it’s hard to find examples in the Red side. For the shocks that most stand out to me were 1970 – the first I covered as a professional journalist – and 1992 when I was a candidate. In the former Heath’s Tories came to power against most…

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The Tory winning margin: What pollsters’ predict

The Tory winning margin: What pollsters’ predict

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Will this help you with the new betting market? This morning, after the slight kerfuffle over what had been said at the polling conference in London, I decided to contact the heads of all the seven main UK political polling operations to put the question to all of them that had been asked last week – what lead, if any, do you think the Conservative will have, in terms of a percentage of the GB vote, at the coming general…

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How many of these will be blue when the results come in?

How many of these will be blue when the results come in?

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York Outer – 0.44% (Lab 27%) Romsey & Southampton N: 0.46% (Lab 10.9%) Cheltenham: 0.66% (Lab 11.8%) Eastleigh: 1.12% (Lab 21.1%) Westmorland & Lonsdale: 1.7% (Lab 7.8%) Hereford & N Herefordshire: 2.4% (Lab 10.2%) Carshalton & Wallington: 2.93% (Lab 17.3%) Taunton Deane: 3.3% (Lab 12.1%) Chippenham: 4.7% (Lab 16.8%) Leeds NW: 5% (Lab 31.9%) Torbay: 6% (Lab 14.5%) Sutton & Cheam: 6.2% (Lab 11.8%) Camborne & Redruth: 7.1% (Lab 25.6%) Richmond Park: 7.1% (Lab 9.25%%) Cheadle: 7.4% (Lab 9.9%) Portsmouth…

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