ComRes has the lead down to just seven points
February 1st, 20102200 - UPDATED following the lifting of the embargo
CON 38% (38)
LAB 31% (29)
LD 19% (19)
At 10pm the embargo on tonight’s ComRes poll for the Independent will be lifted and I’ll be able to fill in the gaps on the number panels above. But the paper’s Andrew Grice has already blogged that the margin is seven points - adding to a terrible series of polls for Cameron’s Tories.
Since Friday night we’ve three polls from the YouGov family showing leads of 7% and two at 9%, 8% from Ipsos-MORI and now 7% from ComRes. This is starting to look very tight and is bound to be increasing the concern level within Cameron Towers.
Of course none of these five polls have focussed on the real battle-ground, Tory targets number 40 - 140, where the election will be won or lost. The nature of sampling for the national polls is such that barely one sixth of those taking part would have been in the key seats.
Be that as it may - this will reinforce the hung parliament narrative and, no doubt, lead to a lot of extra pressure on David Cameron and the Tory leadership.
The big worry for the Tories is if Labour starts seriously eating into the Tory shares.
I’ve been thinking a lot about the PB Angus Reid polling, which runs contrary to all of this, and I hope to be posting within the next few days.
Betting: The best hung parliament bet seems to the the 3/1 from 
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
Cameron First
I thought Labour were 29 last time.
1?
I think the pollsters are being cruel, giving lefties hope.
O/T is anyone watching Tower Block of Commons?
It’s hilarious. Anti-politics is going to have a field day with this series.
Sounds like the tory share has fallen.
re 2. Fixed - thanks.
4. LOL. I hope this is a sign of things to come. The lead tightening and the Tory supporters becoming far more cynical by the day.
FPT 346 floater
Those who think that “Gordon Brown is the worst Prime Minister ever, leading the worst government ever” will no doubt vote appropriately to get him out.
Those who may agree, but look at David Cameron and think he might create an even lower standard of government will vote appropriately to stop him getting in.
I’d rather this happened now and the wrinkles are ironed out rather than with two weeks to go.
Sure Cameron and Co have let Labour frame the nit-picking and the media appear to have forgotten that the Tories aren’t HMG, but hey-ho that was inevitable.
I’m not too concerned, I’m tempted to use the expression ‘bed wetters’ to describe some of those who are demanding the Tories go hard now before the starting gun has been fired.
IDS came across reasonably well though.
Are you suggesting the tories have lost a couple of points to a minor party? If so, that’s a big serving of meh.
re 6. I’ve taken a para out which should not have been there.
Effective CON Spread 347-348.Effective LD Spread 55-56.
I just Bought the Tories on the BF Line at 347. I have bet an awful lot on the Tories today one way and another. Took 1.49 a CON Overall and Layed 8.0 LAB Most Seats.
Some of it,but not all was just profit taking.
It’s a crazy world. A week a two ago I tipped 11-4 CON Seats 324 and under and Mike Smithson headlined the bet. It bombed the next day but now looks like the crown jewels. Similarly I expect my Tory Buys to shine.
uncanny - again. Just as predicted. 10% on jan 1st will be 3% by election day. That’s the forecast given in The Times by Labour election ahem ‘planners’.
If ARS still give a 16% lead by polling day, this election could be rigged to the tune of 13%. The last election was only rigged to the tune of 3%. This is the extent to which Mandelson thinks he can get away with it.
As someone who was raised on polls showing the Tories 40% behind, getting panicked by a 7% lead wont happen on my part
No wonder Mandy is pleased - the Chilcot stuff isn’t filtering through, because Cameron is listening to those loonies on Con Home, Lord Ashcroft and the Policy Exchange crazies..
And Oliver Letwin is writing the manifesto !!
No doubt there will be council tax breaks for tennis courts…
0aten is coming across very badly
17. It’s all bollocks. The polls are doing exactly as ‘forecast’ - http://tinyurl.com/ydhs3d6
18 - Fnarr Fnarr.
Please delete all my previous comments along the same lines (and this one, if you like) - for some reason 0aten is a moderated word?
15. What are you talking about?
22 Tapestry believes that the polling companies, and local councils up and down the country, are engaged in a huge conspiracy to hand the election to Labour.
19 - Sorry, that is the best link anyone has ever posted on here. Including the Sion Simon.
I urge all pbers to click on that. You wont regret it.
One word to describe the problem
Cameron is seen as “Indecisive” !
Mike
It maybe the way Comres are doing their past vote weightings again.
Looking at their last four sets of figures the weightings are:
C 20 L 24 LD 13 Oth 5 DK/WNV 38
C 20 L 23 LD 13 Oth 5 DK/WNV 38
C 18 L 21 LD 12 Oth 4 DK WNV 43
C 18 L 21 LD 12 Oth 5 DK/WNV 42
Taking the DK/WNV out this equates to:
C32.79% L39.34% LD21.31% Oth 8.20%
C32.79% L37.70% LD21.31% Oth 8.20%
C29.51% L34.43% LD19.67% Oth 6.56%
C29.51% L34.43% LD19.67% Oth 8.20%
Now given that this is in greater variance to the reported Conservative vote share than it is to Labour or the Libdems won’t it have a greater impact on the Conservative figures?
Mike, a 7-point Tory lead is disappointing but far from ‘terrible’.
At worst, it would result in the Conservatives being the largest party and dozens of gains. A ‘terrible’ poll would have Labour making gains.
The work being done by Another Richard, jsfl and SthLondonNick in analysing the details of each poll is critical. It represents the true value that blogs can add to political commentary.
There may be a narrowing of the Tory lead in the country but there may also be a coincidence of sampling error. The MSM will never analyse polling subsamples and methodologies, let alone report inconsistencies and errors.
pb.com, with UKPollingReport, must assume the role of Guardian of the Election.
28 - I’d also commend the work Mark Senior has done on analysing the weighting of some of the recent polls.
23. Oh right. Thanks Sean.
27 - Its the trend you need to worry about.
And the fact that even Hammond seems t be all over the place.
FPT -Tories in ‘complete confusion’ over cuts
By George Parker, Political Editor
Published: February 1 2010 19:59 | Last updated: February 1 2010 19:59
The Conservatives were on Monday accused by Labour of being in “complete confusion” over the extent of the immediate spending cuts they intend to implement in a post-election emergency Budget.
Philip Hammond, shadow Treasury chief secretary, said the Tories have identified two spending cuts for this year of “£1bn, £1.5bn, something like that”, although the party’s own figures say the total is only £700m.
Mr Hammond then told the BBC that “nobody is suggesting that we are going to follow Greece”, even though David Cameron has repeatedly warned in the past week that Britain was facing a similar deficit crisis.
Mr Cameron said last week: “We cannot go on like this, and you just need to look at Greece to see what happens if we do.” George Osborne, shadow chancellor, said on Sunday that without tough action Britain faced “a Greek-style budget crisis”.
Senior ministers admit Labour’s electoral position is dire, but draw comfort from what they claim are the confusion and mixed messages that emerge from the Conservatives whenever they are put under pressure.
A leading Conservative backbencher admitted on Monday there were signs of “panic” in the party’s high command, prompted by the party’s narrowing lead in recent opinion polls
ComRes at 38-31-19 would fit Grices comments about 24 short of a majority if ‘baxtered’
So I say 38-31-19, Lab gain 2 from others, Con and Lib unchanged
I saw Cameron being interviewed by Sopel yesterday and now I know for certain that he could never be the PM. Cameron failed to make his points clearly or to show any authority. He even blushed when asked a difficult question. I would have absolutely no confidence in him as leader of our country. He has the ability to look shifty under pressure and he lacks the genuine touch. Maybe the polls are echoing the fact that the electorate has rumbled this PR creation at last.
30 In my view, it’s very hard to have a successful conspiracy that involves tens of thousands of people.
tim, wayne and NPMP all say, pretty much out of nowhere, that Cameron is apparently now indecisive.
Could just be coincidence.
29 - I’d like to commend the lightweighting David Cameron has done recently to move the polls.
FPT 128. You are welcome, and if you are a new poster, welcome^2.
I am often astonished by the ignorance of many people about the electoral system and opinion polling. Some here still believe that some unspecified “magic dust” will waft the Tories into office by a landslide.
Poor deluded fools…
A hung parliament has always, always by some margin been the most likely outcome of this election - ever since the votes of 2005 were counted, in fact…
God, Austin Mitchell really is obnoxious isn’t he?
I felt a bit sorry for 0aten when he started crying, but Mitchell is really quite disgustingly patronizing. He embodies all the very worst attributes of Labour.
35 astateofdenmark
Could be - since I and other neutrals in the Lab/Con fight for mediocrity were saying that for much of January.
37 - Some here still believe that some unspecified “magic dust” will waft the Tories into office by a landslide.
Who needs magic dust, when we have Dr James Gordon Brown leading the labour party.
36.Tim
I find myself agreeing with you on that comment!
re 26. I thought that they’d solved that problem. Let’s see what this latest poll has.
The great thing about Angus Reid is that it weights to the actual 2005 result - so there’s not much scope for the variations of other pollsters which almost always give Labour a boost.
0aten is improving dramatically.
31: “Philip Hammond, shadow Treasury chief secretary, said the Tories have identified two spending cuts for this year of “£1bn, £1.5bn, something like that” - that’s a classic. What’s a 50% difference when you’re only an economics spokesman? “Confusion” is putting it kindly.
BTW, if UNS is correct, IIRC Labour retains it overall majority if the Tories do not lead by more than 3% on the day. So we appear to be a 2% swing away from what is an 18-1 shot on Betfair.
28 - The work on regional subsamples is a waste of time though. This is an issue even OGH and Rod Crosby agree on! They are not politically weighted. The low Tory lead in London that was highlighted as questionable is expected - the sample skewed Lab while the non-London sample skewed Tory to create a politically balanced sample for the UK.
Regional polls would be fascinating if done properly but even aggregating subsamples tells you very very little. Even then as OGH says marginals polls are even more interesting than regions because there can be big variations within as well as between regions.
The overall analysis of polling by OGH and Anthony Wells is invaluable - and far more useful than the regional stuff.
Really? Must have missed that. Quite hard to miss such a dominant narrative. Perhaps I did this time.
Heres what I don’t get about Labour bringing in a Commons vote before the election and basically having the referendum legislation as law:
The great hook Labour have over the Lib-Dems if theres a hung parliament is that only they, Labour, will give the Lib’s PR.
However, if the legislation is already in place then all Cameron has to say to the Lib-Dems is; “We’ll honour the legislation thats been passed and we won’t repeal it”
I other words, by passing the legislation now Labour surely lose one of their great negotiating advantages over the Conservatives when it comes to striking a deal with the Lib-Dems?
37. Talking to yourself in the mirror again Rod?
I have just left my friends house, his girlfriend is so fat that when she fell down the stairs earlier this evening, I thought Eastenders was starting!
42 - Mike, there have been some interesting bits in all the recent polls, so we need to keep an eye on the detail. That’s not to say that there hasn’t been some change, but I am wary.
O/T, that was quite the most turgid piece of football I have watched in quite a while…
denmark at 35: wayne always appears to be a Tory, so there’s some cross-party consensus there, and others have commented similarly on the last thread.
45 If you have a poll that’s specifically done for Wales, say, and weighted properly, then it’ll give you a good indication of what’s happening.
But, usual regional subsamples rarely do.
Labour up 2.
The post has been updated with the REAL numbers
NPMP
You’re an MP, so don’t act the gullible fool. Wayne isn’t a tory.
Maybe the country has at last opened its eyes to the real Dave Cameron. Eventually it was going to catch him up and it is hard to go into an election when the leader doesn’t seem to know his own policies.
http://redrag1.blogspot.com/
44 . I believe Labour needs to be level pegging to retain an overall majority - ie can only afford to suffer an adverse swing of circa 1.5%.
38 Mitchell is a dickhead isn’t he - I used to quite like him about 20yrs ago.
50 - Clearly you didnt see any of Liverpool’s matches under Gerard Houllier in 2003/04. Some of them put me to sleep.
Play with a flat back 10, Get the ball, hoof it up to either Heskey or Owen.
44 yeah Nick, dreadful.
How many billions out were Gordon, and now Badger, in their Budget reports where they lied about the impact of your government’s wasteful spending?
So Tory share stays the same, but Labour up.
Interesting
Time to give this one another run out I think
I’d like to introduce the PfP-tim bastard love child bet.
Tory Seats
£60 BetFred 4/1 325-349 Band
£40 V.Chandler 13/2 300-324 Band
£27.28 PaddyPower 10/1 251-300 Band
We cover a 100 seat range at odds of 1.36/1
(with thanks to StJohn for touching up)
52 - Exactly my point. Without weighting the subsamples are meaningless.
Does any back up exist to Tapestry’s story about Fraser Nelson losing his lobby pass?
If its true, it backs up Tap’s election fix narrative
ConHome
tories 30 short of majority with ComRes.
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/thetorydiary/2010/02/comres-confirms-narrowing-of-tory-lead.html
David Herdson is right. It’s disappointing, not terrible. At least, there is no decline in the Conservative vote.
And, not that long ago, we’d have been rather pleased by a run of results like these.
So no decline in the Tory number, but more saying Labour. You would think that Cameron was being a disaster and driving Tory voters away by what some people have been saying tonight. Don’t get me wrong, this is not as good as it should be for the Tories, but they have been rather steady across the recent polls with each pollster (even if the totals are somewhat at variance). One thing I would note is that Labour might just be creeping over 30% which has been a bit of barrier for them in the past few weeks…
Labour gain 2 from others. Others now 12.
9 oldnat
We KNOW this government has been awful, so the priority is to get rid.
If the tories are as bad in turn we vote them out next time
Simples
64 - http://liberalconspiracy.org/2010/01/26/four-journos-broke-parliament-rules-on-interests/
32 who needs fear the embargo when you have the genius of Dyed?
“The Conservatives lead among men by 16% but trail Labour by 4% among women. ”
http://twitter.com/search?q=comres
So, swingback locked on target like an Exocet….
I agree with David Herdson. This (and the weekend’s polls) have been disappointing - not terrible.
The technical end to the recession has had a bigger impact than most of us expected. Will it last?
64 saddo
http://www.libdemvoice.org/exclusive-standards-commissioner-rules-four-journalists-broke-parliaments-rules-17692.html
more noise.
Mike, I look forward to what you have to say about AR.
Here’s my theory:
1 - The “support” question reduces both Con and Labour party shares, and increases Other, because there are a lot of people out there who support Greens, UKIP, etc. but who would not vote for them in a general election (FPTP = wasted vote).
2 - Ignoring false recall decreases Labour share even more, and boosts both Con and Lib Dems. This disguises the drop in Tory share caused by 1, and coincidently brings them up to where everyone else polls them. Lib Dems end up higher, Labour way lower and Others higher.
Meanwhile back in the real world General Lord Walker confirmed the only way the Defence Chiefs could get the weaponry and equipment to fight the Labour war in Iraq was to all threaten to resign.
Does that make you proud to be a Labour MP Nick?
51. Nick,
Thank you, there is cross party consensus- Cameron is indicisive!
Doesn’t make
me not a Tory , just speaking as I see!
Seems to me the Tory vote is not being driven away, more Cameron’s motivating Labour supporters to come back. Brown out of the equation helps this as well.
Won’t last however. Brown will return, lies will be exposed, budget ripped apart..
72 - It should be remembered that The Exocet that struck HMS Glamorgan failed to explode
72, Rod your predictions are looking pretty handy over the past, um, week. So if this does indeed signal a trend, perhaps it would be of value to the whole PB community for you to set in stone (so to speak) your prediction for share of the C-L-LD vote at the general election?
And then on the 7th May, or whenever, you can link back to this thread to show how right you were! Go for it! What are they? You have nothing to lose considering how nailed on your swingback theory is - and the chance to shut up all the sceptics on here! So Rod…
OT “19 out of 73 MPs who challenged demands from Sir Thomas Legg after his audit of claims say these have either been overturned or substantially reduced.
The full Legg audit of claims between 2004 and 2008, as well of details of MPs’ appeals, is published on Thursday. ”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8492422.stm
16/27- I agree, while this is less good, we’re still ahead, it can hardly be “terrible”. Personally I’m happy with it, and I reckon that we would get a majority from a 7% lead. Perhaps we’ll see more lefties crawling out of the woodwork if the polls continue to tighten.
33- at least try to be subtle dear
I’m sure Mr Cameron won’t enjoy seeing the Indy’s front page.
http://tinyurl.com/yffv9qg
Of course none of this should happening. Never mind Mike, I’m sure the guys from MooseJaw will soon publish a poll with a 20% Tory lead.
Hmmm if the lead drops to 5%, watch the rightwing commentators unleash the invective.
68 floater
But that only applies to bold decisive types like yourself.
Many heed Hilaire Belloc
“Always keep a hold of Nurse
For fear of finding something worse”
Simpler! (and simpletons of both Con & Lab deserve what they get)
45. Kieran so in your book then the ICM Marginal poll was more worthwhile than any of the regional stuff that people have bothered working on?
If so then you believe that the weighted opinion of 6 potential voters per constituency is more valuable than the wealth of unweighted regional data provided by all pollsters.
If the regional data is a waste of time why do pollsters bother including it?
Now I don’t claim that you can get completely accurate views of the regional situation but it is more granular than national data and by using averaging and such like you do get a view of the general regional position IMO which arguably is more than you get from polling on average 6 individuals per constituency as in the ICM/ NOTW marginals poll.
Another great blue day.
Gordon sill there.
Happy days….
Stephanie Flanders = hottie.
Why does Nick Robinson wear coat and scarf but no hat? Exempt from laws of thermodynamics?
“37% of people agreed that Labour can take credit for getting Britain out of recession (a minority – 59% disagreed – but obviously 37% is more people than actually support Labour, so is probably not a bad finding). The other additional questions aren’t particularly enlightening. 40% said they trusted Brown more than Cameron to help the economy to recover (52% disagreed, but obviously we can’t automatically stick them in the Cameron column as they may be people who trust them both, or trust neither of them). The same applies to the 24% of people who believe the recession would have ended earlier if the Tories had been in power – the 69% of people who disagreed can’t be taken to be people who think the Tories would have done worse, some will think the two parties would have done equally well or badly.”
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/2442#comments
Looking just at ICM, YouGov and Populus, who appear to the most consistent pollsters, Labour have been in a 27-31 bracket and Tories in a 38-42 bracket since conference season. At the moment Tories are at the bottom of their bracket + Lab at the top of theirs but the brackets still hold…
44 - Mr Palmer, before you get to excited you might want to look at your chancellors record on making projections……
As for the PM “best placed” and “no more boom and bust”……
Almost as funny as “5 more years” …. and about as likely to be true.
O/T I see we now have proof that Brown starved the troops of funds, when does he see Chilcott? Before the election I believe!!
Genius that man
59 - TSE, at least you don’t have to watch the dullness in glorious HD. Brilliant, vibrant awfulness tonight.
Kieran, I’m not saying that the regionals are the be-all and end-all, but I’ve looked at the weighted samples and my argument with the two YouGovs was that the other regions had moved around somewhat (as normal) but London was significantly out…
“I reckon that we would get a majority from a 7% lead”
Oh God. Someone please help him…
“Opposition poll lead cut on economy doubts”
ComRes phoned 1,000 Britons between January 29 and 31.
http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKTRE6105W220100201
91 - I use to see it live and in person.
I am a concerned Tory.
Quite frankly, the Tory approach since Christmas has been substandard. Wobbly, confused, timid. Pathetic.
Then again, quite what this country would be doing by voting back in one of the worst governments it has ever since…well, the people get what they deserve.
re 89. The most consistent pollster is PB’s Angus Reid. All three parties have been in a two point range since October.
32. Dyed in some wool somewhere
Spot on. You don’t happen to have six numbers to Wednesday do you?
62. Tim
Are you able to guesstimate what Conservatie % share of the vote those seat cover?
92 - Clearly you’ve not used VIPA.
How terrible to only have a seven point lead.
I think the fact that Labour have had so much media attention with Chilcot (even though it hasn’t been good attention) has prevented Cameron from getting so much coverage. What little of Cameron has filtered through has seemed indecisive with mixed messages on spending cuts, marriage tax breaks etc.
Is this back to the idea that less exposure = lower poll figures?
92- of course the Great Prophet of Swingback would say that, however with anti-Labour tactical voting it is quite possible. Even if your precious model doesn’t predict it.
Oh Dear!
http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2010/feb/01/now-phone-hacking-scandal
re 92. A fair point Rod but could you respond in a more polite way?
Many thanks.
UKPR Poll of Polls:
CON 39
LAB 30
LIB 19
Conservatives short by 12
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/2442
80. I’ve repeated my predictions ad nauseam. Just look them up…
28 Kieran
You are right to question the value of analysing regional subsamples if the objective of such analysis is to extrapolate voting intentions for a particular region. But then none of the analysts I referred to have attempted to do this and all have warned against the use of their analysis for this purpose.
What the analysis does highlight is inconsistencies between a particular poll and its preceding reference. Such inconsistencies can indicate - or partially explain - any shift in voting shares from its reference point. This way we can assess whether the movements in VI genuinely reflect voter change or whether they are a result of changes in methodology or sampling.
I agree that the comments of Mike Smithson and Anthony Wells are invaluable and lead their blogs commentary. This doesn’t though invalidate the comments on the thread and both are quick to correct errors in their posters conclusions.
64 - the reason Fraser doesn’t have a Lobby pass anymore is that he was promoted to Editor of the Spectator.
The Speccy’s lobby pass goes to their Political Editor, naturally enough, so James Forsyth now has it.
97 If only I did!
96. Indeed - just a lower range for Lab. MORI and ComRes on the other hand have been all over the place…
97.
“numbers to Wednesday” should be “numbers for Wednesday”
102 And still no one cares. Now, about the Prime Minister’s bullying and assaulting of junior members of staff…
I don’t know whether to worry about this or not, it’s all well within the ranges we have seen from both parties over the past few months anyway. Swings and roundabouts innit?
84 - If by a miracle Labour are in Government post election then we do deserve what we will get.
I have no doubt however that Labour will not be in governemnt post election.
We need a market on the next Conservative leader. I reckon Boris could be favourite.
103- I disagree Mike, I believe Labour got a majority on a 3% lead in 05, I don’t think it’s unreasonable to predict a Tory majority on 7%
Didn’t Cameron used to be more popular with women than men? What accounts for his fall with females? The broken society stuff?
here’s the data… they might be useless but at least we can see straight away as to why
scotland con 10% and if you think thats funny, lab 50%!!!
http://www.comres.co.uk/page1901423456.aspx
114 - There is a next tory leader market here
http://www.ladbrokes.com/lbr_portal?AFF_ID=21697&action=go_home&LANG=en&STYLE=en&VIEW=uk&LAYOUT=default&retURL_g=http^//www.ladbrokes.com/lbr_sports?action=go_generic_link~level=CLASS~key=110000037~category=SPECIALS
112.
Or as Rod would say “Swingbacks and roundabouts”
I’ll get me coat
85 - Yes the marginals poll was more valuable than this regional averaging. It wasn’t perfect - but it gives an indication of the average swing in those seats and this isn’t affected by having only a few votes per seat. It is not trying to predict individual seat results after all.
Averaging lots of inaccurate numbers doesn’t give you an accurate one. It might be more effective if you had the regional sampling figures for each poll. Simply put though I think the focus of your analysis is barking up the wrong tree.
The most comprehensive and sophisticated polling effort is still the Yougov marginals poll run in summer 2008 and 2009. This had a national poll, plus analysis of the marginals across the regions.
117 - Good spot that man,.
114 - Here’s the next tory market. Personally, I think Zac Goldsmith at 66/1 is good value
http://tinyurl.com/NextToryLeaderMarket
100. When you consider how much effort (and taxpayers money) Labour have expended on controlling the media narrative (in terms of the neverending reports and public reviews, conferences etc in recent months) it does make you wonder whether that is a consideration. You have probably got a point there.
Just checking the 05 election figures and they had a series of maps of NI from 97, 01 and 05 showing which parties held which seats. It looks horrendous for the UUP:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Northern_Ireland_election_seats_1997-2005.svg
117. So, we can safetly put this poll down as an outlier than?
Didn’t Cameron used to be more popular with women than men? What accounts for his fall with females? The broken society stuff?
Getting pension ages wrong
Marriage tax.
Extreme makeover poster.
Jumping on the child torture bandwagon.
116 GIN
The marriage thing, mainly. It is far far far more popular with men than with women.
This is reminiscent of Brown Bounce II - lead narrowing as Labour take support from Lib Dems or others but Conservative share pretty constant.
There is a good deal of pressure being put on Cameron from the unhelpful press - the narrative wants excitement - but he hasn’t been someone to react in short term tactics. I am disappointed that he (and it is usually him though the other frontbenchers are equally as bad) have let Labour create the false prospectus they now claim he is moving away from. Don’t doubt though that he has a strategy and is willing to play it through.
42 - “The great thing about Angus Reid is that it weights to the actual 2005 result - so there’s not much scope for the variations of other pollsters which almost always give Labour a boost.”
But by ignoring false recall, it will always weight down Labour too much. I don’t understand why they have done this, other than that its the methodology used in Canada.
Perhaps Canadians have better memories…
117 - Thanks ryans. I know the Tories are unpopular in Scotland but that seems a touch low… See Table 6.
103. Irony was never your strong point was it Mike?
From cheerleader of the baying mob to unctuous prude in 24 hours.
You have more faces than a Rubik’s cube…
The big question is - will Gordon be tempted into a March election?
126 And the rationale for that ? We’re always being told that it’s women who want to tie the knot not men
114 / 121.
I would say the next Tory leader is about the worst market to bet on. You don’t know when the leader is going to change and who is going to be around when that change happens.
You are either going to be throwing money away, or having to wait a long time to see any return.
re 125. It varies enormously from pollster to pollster Tim. Reading anything into number like this from one poll is like looking at the Scottish subset.
This is truly going to be one of the most exciting elections of all time! I think once the campaign begins Mr Cameron will have to gain momentum and not let the lead drop to 5% or else any dreams of a majority will be buggered.
However, like Mike has pointed out, the marginals will be the most important.
37: I think Rod is right that a hung parliament is - (marginally in my view) - the most likely outcome and has been since 2005, simply because 116 gains in one election is a mighty task for any party.
106 - Yes but this argument that ‘funny’ regional results are evidence to doubt a poll are equally erroneous. Because the polls aren’t politically weighted by region one company could poll say London in one survey and get a Labour skew, and in the next get a Tory skew. This is not evidence that there is anything wrong with the overall poll. In face it would be very strange if there were NOT these ‘funny’ regional results from time-to-time.
121. Even 66/1 on ZG looks ridiculous if the Conservatives switch leader any time in the next 5 years. I don’t think Cameron can survive if he doesn’t win an overall majority - assuming the inevitable LIB/LAB pact in the event of a hung parliament and Crosby’s balls explode. So the next leader could be installed by the end of the year.
120. Indeed, if you adjust this to something more reasonable, i.e con 18%; lab 35%; the voting intentions come out at con 38.4%; lab 30.0%. So we go from 7% lead to nearly 8.5% lead, a massive difference in terms of UNS. Surely, when a polling company gets such a ridiculous result they should resample and compare to make sure!!
132 - I think i broke the trend with my marriage.
FFS,the bbc news only has one newspaper that they could print off,yes your right,the independent.
125.
1. I follow politics and I can’t really remember that one.
2. Why do women in particular dislike marriage tax?
3. The overwhelming, vast majority of female voters won’t have seen the poster, much less care about it.
4. I could see Camerons Broken Society speech turning off some female voters.
Quite frankly all these polls must be bunk. I haven’t met a single Labour supporter who doesn’t think Gordon is a complete poop face - never mind supporters of other parties! Why, the other day I was speaking to a life-long Labour man who still expresses amazement that Michael Foot didn’t get in. Anyway, I asked him what he thought of Gordon and his nostrils flexed with distaste. ‘Vote for that bloke?’ he sniffed. ‘No he looks like the sort of man who wears sock suspenders.’ And this from a Labour loyalist! No, I’ll be amazed if Gordon gets any votes whatsoever.
My tongue was in the vicinity of my cheek when I suggested Zac Goldsmith
PaddyPower has 3/1 on a hung parliament or even a Tory defeat. Looks a good price
119 Well you’ll just have to ignore all my further posts on the subject then won’t you?
As for the Yougov marginal polls yes they are comprehensive and very useful at the time but both are now completely obsolete. It’s all very well having these mega polls but unless they are done regularly they are little more than intriguing spectacles.
Now if one were done in the next couple months it may be of use but ones that are months old (and the last one was out of date pretty much when it was published) aren’t of any use at all now…..
Andrew Hawkins CEO of ComRes suggests Brown calls a March election.
http://www.toryradio.com/2010/02/01/latest-comres-poll-brown-should-call-march-election/
128. Statto: But by ignoring false recall, it will always weight down Labour too much.
That may or may not be true.
132 Plato
I don’t know why - who knows why women think the way they do?
But the polling on that point is pretty clear, if I have remembered correctly.
The Republicans are now trying to frame a bill to break up the banks and make sure they pay for any future collapse as being another “bank bailout for lobbyists”:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/02/01/frank-luntz-pens-memo-to_n_444332.html
It’s unbelievable the lies these guys pedal.
MARRIAGE TAX POLLING DETAILS
From ICM Guardian January:
Q.5 Would you personally support or oppose the introduction of a tax break for married couples with children?
Support: Women: 64%, Male: 66%
Hardly a huge difference!
Female Support for Tories: 40%, Men: 43%
Female Support for Labour: 29%, Men: 26%
Comres tables are already up. Here’s some funny numbers for you, Scotland subsample:
Lab 50%
SNP 18%
LD 19%
Con 9%
Adjusting the weighted Labour score in Scotland to 35%, would knock their headline figure back to where it was. ie no change.
Why don’t polling companies spot such obvious flaws?
143 “‘Vote for that bloke?’ he sniffed. ‘No he looks like the sort of man who wears sock suspenders.’”
146 - Surely Paddy Powers 12/1 on Ed Balls as next Chancellor is pretty attractive if you’re expecting a Tory Defeat
Sky virtually writing the Tories obituary…
150. Thanks very much. So out of Tims four options, the only one that makes sense it the broken society speech?
Full tables from ComRes here
http://www.comres.co.uk/systems/file_download.aspx?pg=549&ver=1
154. LOL Rod! How long before they set up a “comeback” narrative for the Tories? The press love an under dog.
127
There is a good deal of pressure being put on Cameron from the unhelpful press
Is that the press that has almost uniformly accepted he’ll be the next PM. GB of course has had the most amazing support from the press, I don’t think.
Not that the press should go around supporting any political leader, its job is to examine and expose, not support.
i was voting tory. im not after his poster campaign and stupid dinosaur policy regarding marriage; a upper class institution.
150 SthLondon Nick
Hmmm, I might have been wrong then. I thought there were polls showing a stark contrast between male and female opinions on this but it could be a figment of my imagination.
Will try to find it.
154,ROD,labours economic policy
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zja3ZUg7z1o&feature=related
151 Don’t tell easterross the Scottish subsample figures , he won’t be able to eat his porridge and kippers in the morning .
127 Ted, I was impressed by Patrick’s comments on the morning thread, in summary:
“Setbacks in perception are acceptable - as long as the actions underway are bringing the desired end result along. In retrospect everyone will say how competently managed the whole thing was.”
It would certainly be extremely helpful for the future if Mr Cameron could stop our politics being dominated by the news cycle, even if it happens accidentally. Sometimes things need to develop at their own pace, without being forced to meet the (artificial) media deadline.
re 137. Well said Kieran.
157. Yes, I really hope they don’t overdo it.
Come on the Blues! Come on the Blues!
159. Hmmmm…..
117 ryans
Maybe now we can put to rest the ludicrous idea of subsets (and including Scotland in GB polls)
According to ComRes the shifts in a week are
Party, SE, Midlands, NE, Wales/SW, Sco,
Con, -3%, 2%, 5%, -3%, -11%
Lab, 1%, 4%, 1%, -3%, 11%
LD, 1%, -1%, -3%, -5%, 4%
159 Golly - a new poster who isn’t familiar with the shift key and has changed their vote on the basis of a poster and because being married is upper class…
Do try harder dearie.
Is this the best trolling Labour can afford ?
Good point from Anthony Wells at UKPR
Bollocks is probably the best description.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/2442
Are my eyes deceiving me…the weighted sample has MORE men than women. Difference is about 5%. Are Comres aware that there are more women than men?
162 - I’m more worried about the SNPers.
I am astounded by the lack of understanding of the regional subsamples tonight (117, 129, 151). The effect I was explaining re: ‘funny’ regional subsamples pops up immediately and people over-react.
The polling companies are attempting to get a representative sample of the NATION not any one region. Therefore they ensure the national sample is weighted, not the regions. So for each poll some regions will skew one way and other regions will skew another way. That is to be expected. It is NOT a reason to doubt the poll. When people do back of the envelope re-weightings they create an unbalanced sample.
Lets take the example of the Scotland part of tonight’s comres poll. It is based on SIXTY THREE respondents so has a massive MOE. There is a clear skew to Labour but this is likely balanced out by an opposite skew in the other regions. By all means analyse the national sample as Mike does but the regional data is virtually meaningless.
And on the point of why publish regional data at all - I understand why the polling companies do it for the sake of transparency but that doesn’t make it meaningful.
168 didn’t you know Plato sweetie? Marriage, Slavery and wrecking Economic Recovery, it’s what gets us randy down the Gentlemen’s club before the wenches bring us our brandy.
Top Hole Fellows, Top Hole!
168- it’s on a par with “Lily Allen” but not as funny as Richie Rich
169. That question was designed to give the Indy their headline and nothing more Mike. Sometimes the games the media play are so tiresome.
159 - So I’m upper class for getting married?
160 - You are right, there were two I think.
151. “Scotland subsample: Lab 50% SNP 18%”
No way is that right.
159 anastasia
Are you related to susanna, perchance?
162
He’ll be on the Buckie if he spots that.
159. Ridiculous. No-one that calls marriage “an upper class institution” is anything less than a dyed-in-the-wool left winger.
My favourite sub sample ever, was one from London, which included a couple of voters planning to vote for the SNP
175 TOFF!!!!
And just to add - does anyone believe there is such a gap between male and female voting intentions? ALL subsets, not just the regional ones, are questionable because they are not politically weighted. Of course it would make news articles boring if the subsets were not reported on.
Paddy Power Con Seats market disappears.
181- you have a favourite sub sample mate, that’s worrying!
Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as…?
LAB 29%
CON 24%
LIB 14%
http://www.comres.co.uk/systems/file_download.aspx?pg=549&ver=1
182 - I know, add in my public school background.
I’m coming out of the closet. I’m a toff and proud of it.
172.
Excuse me, but could one stop being randy. It’s awfully distasteful.
178 Didn’t ’susanna’ claim that her real name was ’susannah’ but some evil Tory had prevented her from using the ‘correct’ screen name?
I have aged 4 months typing this comment
177 - Of course there is no way it is right - because it is a regional subsample!
Sorry to be bashing on about this but it is a bit of a bugbear for me. The pollsters aren’t trying to predict accurately the result in each region. They are trying to predict what will happen across the UK.
Evening all.
Well, I’ve got a good laugh from tonight’s thread.
A hung parliament has always, always by some margin been the most likely outcome of this election - ever since the votes of 2005 were counted, in fact…
by RodCrosby February 1st, 2010 at 9:49 pm
So we’ve all been wasting our time - and that includes not only the good burghers of PB.com, but Gordon Brown, David Cameron, and all the other politicians who put so much effort into this politics malarkey.
Let’s be clear: the MPs’ expenses scandal, the booting out of Tony Blair, the 10p tax fiasco, the Lisbon Treaty ratification, the near-collapse of the banking system, the biggest financial deficit in history, the 42-day detention debate, three or more failed coup attempts against Gordon Brown, the aftermath of the Iraq war, the continuing Afghan war, the McBride affair, the Damian Green arrest, the return of Mandy, the London tube bombings, the shooting of de Menezes, the manifestos of the three main parties, the Chilcot Inquiry, and Ms Lumley’s campaign for the Ghurkhas: all that is noise, and hardly affects the probabilities of a hung parliament, which has been prefigured in the stars since 2005.
186 - Actually my favourite one was the one showing the Tories ahead of the SNP during the Labour conference.
I think Stuart Dickson damaged a rib laughing too hard.
Denmark at 151 - see kieran at 137. Since the regional subsamples are unweighted, you should expect variation (and it would be Tapestry-scale suspicious if there was none). If you pick the most extreme one in either direction and assume it hadn’t happened, you will actually distort the result.
184.
Tim, if it’s only just gone off, it probably means they are updating their prices.
They have a funny way of just getting rid of markets when they are changing prices.
159 “I have always/never voted for x but …” posts are examples of what one might call the autobiographical fallacy, the classic example being “Some of my best friends are Jews”. It isn’t an argument, and it isn’t interesting.
In English we write “an upper” not “a upper”; and “anastasia” is rather a upper class pseudonym, which seems at odds with your persona.
Put those scottish figures into Electoral Calculus
Labour 46 +5
LD 8 -3
SNP 5 -1
CON 0 -1
I think 1 constituency returned 101%
We’ll keep the red flag flying here.
188- but Harriet Harman said that the Tories wanted to replace Sure Start centres with Lap Dancing bars, she wasn’t lying was she?
189- I gather she also lives in England and Wales
160 - Wibbler, ComRes have come to this conclusion before. When the Indie ran an article about this, ICM had a poll out recently that showed pretty much the opposite…
171 - Kieran, I always accept some of the caveats on Regionals, but I still remain concerned that we have three samples showing a dramatic shift over the last poll. I’m not denying there could be a genuine shift, but there is something out of sink. Let me make myself clear I am not doubting the integrity of the polls and if anyone thinks that I have I apologise, but surely we should be seeing a more general movement across the board?
186. That suggests an oversampling of core Labour voters doesn’t it?
191 *CLAPS*
http://www.toryradio.com/2010/02/01/latest-comres-poll-brown-should-call-march-election/
Hmmm don’t think ‘e will.
188 Sorry, but we dilletantes and dandies must have our randies as the peasantry suffer beneath us.
Sock puppet alert at 159
191. Go Richard!
171. Correct. Desperate clutching at illusory straws…
198 - I’m not a fan of lapdancing clubs. Ever since I was ejected headfirst from Stringfellows, when I tried to give one of the ladies some of the heavenly money.
(granted i tried to use my tongue, to put into her thong, but I digress)
171 kieran
“Lets take the example of the Scotland part of tonight’s comres poll.”
Yes let’s.
Not only is the sample tiny, but it’s measuring a different political system, which can’t possibly be compensate for in the English regions.
If you insist on buying diamonds and zircons in the same bag, don’t be surprised if you have bought a pup.
(We can all make up our own minds as to who are the diamonds and who the zircons
)
Again, from the ‘data’ and i use the term lightly, the lab boost appears to be from lab voters saying they will definitely vote rather than tory supporters leaving. Its just a recession bounce. We need to wait till the weekend.
Also, why on earth is gordon pressing for voting reform!!This is a silly distraction which both the tories and libs can easily attack his sudden willingness to change the system. Remember, the most damaging aspect about the election that never was was browns denile about his reasons for doing so. Voting reform gives both clegg and cameron to paint brown as a liar and attempting to bribe the election. It also cements camerons vote yellow get brown narative.
For me, the best argument against AV is this: it’ll lead to politians having to campaign for BNP voters vote; and why should I have to put a number next to the BNP. Brown really shouldve gone for STV.
I was thinking of the ComRes/Mirror poll re: the marriage tax gender split.
http://www.comres.co.uk/systems/file_download.aspx?pg=543&ver=1
On page 20, it asks
with an (unweighted) breakdown of good idea/bad idea of 48/49 amongst men, and 45/51 amongst women. Net +1 amongst men, net -6 amongst women - a clear difference, though not as pronounced as I thought.
171. And I am astounded at the arrogance of someone who writes ‘I am astounded by the lack of understanding’.
It is not that we don’t understand the rational behind your argument or the way polls are constructed or the caveats surrounding them, believe it or not, it is because we don’t agree with you and just because you say different doesn’t mean we have to agree with you either!
Shish!
Both Labour and tories in the 30s for 3 consecutive polls.
Hasn’t happened for over a year.
198 SLN “but there is something out of sink”
Top typo of the day
191. More or less, correct. All those things are just ripples on the ocean called politics…
207. Ryans, I voted about the voting reform thing at 47. It seems a bizarre decision to me if Labour are hoping to get the Lib-Dems to enter into a coalition with them in the event of a hung parliament. By bringing in the legislation now they are blowing away one of their big negotiating positions.
159, yeah we really believe you. Subtlety not.
So without the Scottish anomaly, claiming evry second person will vote labour and they will have 2 and a half times the SNP and Tory vote, (and let us be honest the whole thing has flaws), then the lead in England remains at about 9%.
I agree that England needs to be looked at differently to Scotland in these polls, and should have been pushed that way by the Tories long before this as a dislike for the Tories in polls in Scotland is not unusual and skews down their average in England.
On 9% in England they have more than enough for a majority as I understand. is that not correct?
208 - “Re the Tory tax allowance for married couples, you ask a very slanted question and get the result they you want: “57 per cent, including 63 per cent of women, say it is not the place of government to promote one lifestyle over another.”
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/thetorydiary/2010/01/tories-13-ahead-in-populus-poll-despite-half-of-voters-thinking-cameron-is-on-the-side-of-the-rich.html
208 - Indeed that did. It does come down to how you ask…
137 Kieran
Yes but this argument that ‘funny’ regional results are evidence to doubt a poll are equally erroneous.
Again, I don’t think that any of the analysts would disagree with your post. If, say, a Labour bias in the London results is balanced out by opposing biases in other regions then this would not be remarkable.
It is when all other regions are consistent with the previous poll and only the London region is biased when legitimate questions are raised. Such as: Has London experienced a shift in voter intention or does this particular poll have suspect London results?
You are narrowing the argument against sub-sample analysis down to regional sub-samples being unweighted for that region, but there are other legitimate reasons to question the underlying workings of the polls as is evidenced by the posts of Another Richard etc on the threads this week.
212 Bravo, Rod! At least you have the courage of your convictions.
re 210 Not quite true Gabble. In March 2009 there were six consecutive polls leading to YouGov’s 34% share.
Then there was “Smeargate” and we saw how Labour really operates.
215 - Redcliffe, noticed your question on the super injunctions from last night.
All I know is that there are over 200 of them in force. I don’t anymore than that.
A weekend of polls showing the Tory lead down and PB.com goes crazy. Nothing has changed, and Cameron has not been all over the news this week, Blair and Labour have yet again been dominating the narrative.
And am going to predict two things, these polls are reflecting the end of January mood of the nation in the grips of a recession. Its the big annual hang over from Christmas with no really good news to look forward too.
And Cameron, he will continue to be a vote winner in the polls the more exposure he gets, positive or negative. Anyone banking on Mike Smithson’s golden rule finally coming to an end is going to be disappointed.
150.Nick, I still think that the polls are underestimating female support for the Conservatives right now. I don’t if its a form of shy Tory syndrome the polls are missing, but missing they are.
213. And you really think the Tories are going to allow the referendum? Presumably they’ll be voting for it next week, then…
When are we next due an ICM?
212. Rod, do you realise how depressing your attitude is to politics? Its an incredibly cynical, depressing attitude that basically says; “Nothing matters” It doesn’t matter what the partys do. What they don’t do. Who gets things right. Who gets things wrong. Its all already set up and nothing anybody does can change that inevitability.
That is a horribly depressing attitude - If it all matters so little why bother? Why don’t we all just sign off and go off in differant directions and just give up on all this stuff?
198 - There is reason for concern if the sampling at a national level is erratic. This has been the case of Mori and Com Res for various reasons and should be scrutinised.
However at the regional subsample level there is NO cause for concern at dramatic swings. Take yougov and London. I don’t have the exact figures but there was a big move from the Telegraph to the people (4 point lead to double digit). The London sample went from a Labour skew to a Tory one. But so what? The national sample was still representative, the movement in London will have been reversed in other regions, but because the changes are less dramatic they are less noticed.
I understand the desire to extract information and / or scrutinise the regional samples. But the data is simply too unreliable to tell us anything, even about the accuracy of specific polls.
186. Gabble.
Way out of line with the BSA survey posted here this week by, IIRC, jsfl.
221. Mike Smithson
No. The tory share was 40+ in those polls.
223. If the legislation has already been passed and the Tories don’t have the majority to repeal, then they can’t NOT accept it. They will just say to the Lib-Dems; “We won’t repeal this” and that will be that.
The great hook Labour have over the Lib-Dems is that only they will pass the legislation to get PR done. If the legislation is already passed and the Tories haven’t got the majority to repeal it (which they won’t have in a HP scenario) Labour have just thrown away one of their Lib-Dem hooks.
222. You’d make Comical Ali blush…
220 - The Tories wer over 40% in all the March 09 polls.
One of the most disturbing of Andrew Rawnsley’s revelations must surely be Gordon’s bizarre attitude to President Obama. Okay, we already knew Gordon chases after Obama in kitchens, but we’re now given to understand that Gordon physically attacks people when Obama fails to return his affections. Are there any psychologists out there who can explain this? To me it seems an odd way for a grown man to behave, but I’m only a simple chap with little emotional depth.
Newsnight (Michael Crick) highlighting ComRes poll. Last 4 polls very much hung parliament territory.
230.Rod, not really, its just my opinion on here. And like everyone else, not long to find out if its right or wrong. And I still predict the Tories will do better where they are weakest if the narrative continues to be towards a hung Parliament, and an increased turnout on the back of that will be a factor of that too.
218 - My examples inevitably simplifies the argument. However, a gross regional skew may be offset by small skews in the other direction across all other regions.
So to take your example. There may be a national move to Labour of 2 points. In the regional samples this shows up as a 10 point movement in one region and no movement in the others. This does not make the sampling questionable it just happens to have skewed this way across the country.
jsfl - I’m sorry that you appear to take offence in the way that I have expressed myself. However I strongly believe that this analysis of regional sub samples is unhelpful and genuinely find it surprising that people seem to value it so highly - but of course we are all entitled to our opinions.
Incidentally the England and Wales figures for this poll are:
Con 40 Lab 29.5 LD 18
212- Rod, as you know, I told you a while back that you were courageous since, unlike most PB’ers, you had gone so far out on the precipice that you were probably either going to be proven spectacularly right or spectacularly wrong in the upcoming election, with all attending honors or disgrace. I don’t know which way the election will go, but your odds seem to have improved recently. And your suggestion that specific, seemingly important political events are generally largely subsumed into predictable historical patterns is an idea that is near and dear to my heart.
233. I disagree. MORI would give the Tories a majority (you get to 40% you get a majority, I don’t care what anybody says) and the BPIX and YouGov polls that gave the Tories a 9% lead would also have given them a majority, IMO.
This poll and the other YouGov would be HP, but with the Conservatives probably still able to govern as a minority.
229. But the LibDems might get even more out of Labour. STV for the Lords, Councils and pretty much everywhere else, with plenty of constitutional bells and whistles… They might even get more than AV for the Commons.
I’d look very closely at the exact wording that is passed next week… 
233. Thought the BBC didn’t report polls
I know the Tories on here can sometimes get a bit carried away with delight, but the intensity of the circle jerk that’s going on between Gabble, Rod, Tim and all the other usual suspects is so incredible that Mike is going to have to come in here and clean the place up with a pop and bucket. Then throw the mop and bucket away…
On reflection, the high Scottish support for Labour makes me think that Labour may be slightly overstated by a percentage point or two? However, that does not mean the Tories would be understated, maybe just the SNP.
Why does Labour bring in this proposal with only 9 weeks to the election campaign when they’ve been in power for 13 years? Seems a bit weird.
On topic: It’s worth pointing out that the change since a week and a half ago is very unlikely to be anything other than noise - very little has changed politically in that time. Having said that, it does confirm that the Tory lead has probably dropped since December, or at least that is what ComRes are showing. So far, YouGov are showing a similar effect, but Angus Reid are showing no change. ICM and the two Populus polls show an increase in the Tory lead (small in ICM’s case). (MORI, which bounces around like a billiard ball, can’t be taken seriously IMO)
Overall, I’d say it looks as though the reduction in lead is probably genuine, but we shouldn’t get too excited about it on the current set of polls.
235. Kieran
I do not take offence I just like to call things as I see them.
If you do not recognise the condescending nature of your language in that post then there is nothing further to say other than you see no value in regional figures and others of us do. End of story….
243 To deceive LDs into vote for them
239. Maybe, but I don’t think the Lib’s would throw in their lot with the deeply unpopular Labour Party when they could do an “issue by issue” deal with the Tories and an AV referendum would have to be implemented anyway.
Is it all over for Camo???!
—————————
Unbelievable!!!!!
Labour new GE favourites!!!!!
Camo has lost working class conservative vote - labour on course to be biggest party 33-36!!!!!
Camo has to:
- put vat up to 24% (EU maximum thanks MTF)
- scrap all handouts
- scrap all labour tax increases
- abolish unmarried mothers
- put up IHT to 120% no cuts on unearned wealth!!!
Or we have lost!!!!!!!!!!!!
Camo = chamberlain!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
244. A voice of sanity Richard.
248 - Calm down.
Gordon Brown = Brendan Rodgers
Cameron = Roger Federer.
248. :O
Ave it!!!!!!! :O No, you can’t desert us now! Your our last fireguard against Tim, Gabble and Rod?
kieran
I note that you haven’t responded to my 206, redcliffe’s 215, or jsfl’s 236
222 - is that post a translation from an original in Samarian by Mary Magdalene on the ascension?
This AV thing seems a bit daft. The PLP is split on this as is the cabinet and from what I understand there is no chance of getting this through before the end of this Parliament. All seems a bit odd…
Were all the public sector workers at home when this poll was done?
So when do we believe the polls?
Last year, it was wait until the conference season is over/psbr/January.
Can the dockside ladies come out of hiding now?
248. “Can’t Make-it Cammo” has a pleasing ring to it, don’t you think?
[note to watching hacks: credit, RodCrosby, 2010 ]
254. I think they are trying to nobble the next parliament and force the Tories to have to sign up to it (if there a HP)
256 RodCrosby
Much better in Scots “Cammo canna”.
245 - I think you are right - I’ve set out my argument clearly and clearly I’m not going to persuade you!
Having re-read the post I probably was condescending. Not my intention at all, but I think a prevalent danger when you feel very sure about something.
256 But Rod, since this was all prefigured in 2005, and Cameron wasn’t even leader at the time, how could it possibly be any failing of his?
250 you are the voice of reason and i love you!
But we are throwing it away!!!
251 likewise!!!
256 are you curtis tansley thomas?
The trending is as per my expectations and betting - Labour to get most seats.
Cameron simply cannot get the basics right. Policy is announced without a thought for how much it will cost, how it will be implemented, how it will be ’sold’, and whether he has his party with him.
The new focus on ‘householders rights’ is just desperate, desperate stuff reminiscent of the 2001 campaign.
I ask myself this. What is there in the Cameron manifesto for the C2s who swung behind Maggie? Certainly not the IHT changes, or fox hunting, or the (effective) ban on cheap flights.
And the message is so muddled. Over the weekend, I got a flyer from my Conservative candidate, asking me to elect him because the area needs ‘urgent investment’, whilst the leadership talk about modest/big/swingeing cuts.
We heard the blue sky stuff from Cameron for four years, and patiently waited for the cohesive narrative and policy detail. And now we find the cupboard is bare.
This will all end in the messiest of hung Parliaments.
260. Good point? Rod?
Give MPs a £15,000 pay rise, says ’sympathetic’ watchdog
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1247831/Give-MPs-15-000-pay-rise-says-sympathetic-watchdog.html
Mathematics hat post: one shouldn’t attribute special significance to men or women responding differently in a single poll. This is like the regions thing. Even if men and women completely agree on something, there will be random noise which will make one lean more one way than the other. Obviously it’s different if a series of polls show the same thing, but although the Labour lead among women in this poll is interesting and new, I’d wait to see further polls before making much of it.
260. He should have let Davies become leader, and take the fall…
252 - I didn’t think there was much to respond to. Your post seemed to be supporting mine - the Scottish subsamples are meaningless.
As for the E + W figures if the Scottish sample is skewed to Labour it indicates that the E + W sample is skewed to the Conservatives to balance.
Michael Crick wet himself with excitement on Newsnight saying everything points to a hung parliament and spouting all the negatives for the Tories. The Beeb certainly have it in for the Tories, I have seldom heard them talk about negative polls for Liebour. The Beeb obviously fear the searchlight of scrutiny which will befall them if the Tories get in.
262.
1. If your going to have a wobble, this is a great time to have one as you have time to fix your messages. Which leads to;
2. How do you know when the actual campaign begins Labour won’t lurch from disaster to disaster?
Have a wobble in January or a disaster in April. I know which one I would choose.
Labour supporters are showing shocking complacency on here tonight, IMO. Digging their own graves?
If AV is going to be the centre piece of the reforms, then there is a real opportunity for cameron to be quite radical. So far we have 10% less mps and fairer boundaries. other possible changes:
-Fully elected upper house, something along the US senate though, as a multiparty system maybe numbers is the 200 rather than 100. Also cross-benchers and independents need to be preserved somehow!
-Recall powers
-Open primaries for all tory seats, will the goal of involving other parties in order to have something similar to the US presidential primaries
-Set 4 year terms, with any extension to 5 years requiring approvel from both houses.
-Reform of the parliament act, setting out areas in which the lords can block indefinately without a referendum ie constitutional changes
-English votes for english legislation
These are clear and popular policies.
226 - Kieran, thanks for your explanation. I’m not denying that there may have been a shift, but I would be happier about it’s strength and durability if it was more broad-based… We shall see…
O/T a couple of things from across the blogosphere:
Mandy may not be happy about his election roll:
http://timesonline.typepad.com/comment/2010/02/the-usually-sage-james-forsyth-covers-peter-mandelsons-press-conference-and-provides-the-following-judgment—-one-thing-tha.html
The whole battle in SW London between Kramer and Goldsmith is showing signs that the LibDems may be a little more worried. The constant attacks in the Sunday Times (with a LibDem always ready to offer a comment made me a little suspicous) and the whole Save our Hospital Campaign looks a little more orchestrated according to Guido:
http://order-order.com/2010/02/01/loose-lips-plot-thickens/
265 nick = lol
262 chris read - we need an army coup after the election shoot the lab and lds - not you if you hang on nick cos we like you - bollox to fair voting lets just shoot our way to victory
235 Kieran
Reductio ad absurdum. My example, say, shows identical results in aggregate in all regional sub samples except in London, which shows a big rise in Lab’s share. Poll 1 is taken on days 1 & 2, Poll 2 on days 3 & 4. The polling company and methodology is identical.
In the above circumstances the question I raised remains valid.
I am not saying that this occurred, but that, in certain circumstances, analysis of the sub-samples can point to inconsistencies that are worthy of remark, further analysis, questioning and evaluation.
As not everyone reading pb.com will be familiar will basic polling methodology your comments are useful, but addressed to those that are carrying out the analyses, they are probably superfluous.
253.Tim, I don’t attack you personally on this blog, so please do me the same courtesy. Either make a valid point or ignore me.
266. Theres that cynicism again Rod. Maybe he wanted to try and do something for his country? Not everyone is it for themselves.
Tory maj drifts on Betfair to 1.51…
What I find astonishing is that there has been almost no movement at all in Betfair odds.
Con Most Seats still 1.14, exactly where it’s been for quite a long time (except for tightening to 1.13 for a short period).
Now whatever anyomne thinks about the detail, it is surely clear that the Con lead has narrowed to a significant degree. Why are the markets not responding?
The only answer I can think of is Angus Reid. Whether Angus Reid is overstating the Con lead doesn’t really matter - the point is it is showing a rock solid consistent lead. If it’s actually solid at 12% or 13% rather than AR’s 16% would be irrelevant.
FFS,maquire doing the newspaper review on sky Noooooooooooooooo
270. I’d sign up to most if not all of those.
239. If the Tories are so keen on an early election, they should put forward an amendment to the Bill, replacing AV with STV. Guaranteed government defeat.
275. Give over. You’ll have me blubbing in a minute…
As ComRes give a regional breakdown of 2005 votes as well as the current ones its possible to see the regional change:
SE
Con +3
Lab -6
LD -1
Oth +4
Midlands
Con +9
Lab -9
LD -7
Oth +7
North
Con +7
Lab -5
LD -6
Oth +4
Wales & SW
Con +3
Lab -4
LD -2
Oth +5
Scotland
Con -4
Lab -5
LD +10
Oth -1
Usual warnings about regional samples but I think the Conservatives would take some satisfaction that the biggest swings are in the midlands and north and the lowest in Scotland.
271 - Just to add quickly - it may be as Richard N suggests this is just noise, or an outlier, and the real position has not moved. Only more polls (isn’t that always the case!) will tell. My only point is that the subsamples don’t tell us one way or the other whether the poll is right, or the trend it indicates is likely to stick.
SkyNews:
Osborne’s speech tomorrow is about Climate Change.
lol
245 - Tories = Watford
Undies Soiled Leader Malfunction
All over - can Gordo get an overall majority??????????!
We need to commit to abolishing all scum and spongers now!!!!!
ave it says - put all state benefits on £1 a week and they need to clear my gutters to earn that!!!!!!!
284. Must be about a New Ice Age for the Tories….
Kudos to those who have focused on the regional breakdowns. Cameron needs to win seats in places other than Scotland. Brown is welcome to 100% of the votes in his backyard - it won’t stop the Conservatives from winning a majority.
267 Kieran
You (and the polling firms) are guilty of assuming that Scotland is just another region of GB politics. The reality here is that Lab and SNP are the two big parties, Con and LD the two wee ones.
“Others” in England don’t approach the level of SNP support in Scotland, and especially don’t interact with Con/Lab/LD in the same way in voters minds as the SNP does.
I agree with you as to the meaningless of the “regional” cross breaks are meaningless, but to include a entirely different political dynamic as if it is part of the “mainstream” simply introduces distortion. Variations here can’t be compensated for in the English regions.
Hence, while there is some distortion involved in excluding the Scottish sample, the small numbers suggest that the effect is comparatively small.
Hence jsfl’s analysis (I’m assuming the sums are right) of Con 40 Lab 29.5 LD 18 is likely to be a far more accurate representation of voting intention within the dominant political system of the UK than the ComRes headline figures.
266. David Davies was never a leadership contender. He has never tried for leadership, or is ever likely to succeed.
277 MikeL.After a long silence there has been a huge reaction on the side-markets this evening.
I Bought Tory Seat at 347.0 and then at 340.5 which was nice !
I also Backed an Overall for CON at 1.49 and could have done better.All in all this has been my biggest day since my last biggest day and all my money has gone on Big Blue.
ICM could make it look foolish in the short term but it wouldn’t be the first time.
Take courage, you Tory wimps, and Back your boys !
273 - As stated up thread in response to jsfl I think we have reached stalemate. I simply do not think the regional sub samples provide data strong enough to provide anything close to a reliable analysis. Others do think this, and obviously if they wish to pursue this all power to their elbow.
One concern I have though is that those not familiar with polling methodology, as you put it, can read a great deal into the regional analysis. Far too often the words ‘with usual caveats’ are put before this analysis but the analysis seems unchanged by the caveats and the way the information is put across implies the caveats are not too important.
FFS,I give up,osborne giving major speech on climate change tomorrow,this when the negativity with the public on climate change,FFS.
COME ON CAMERON,UP YOUR GAME.
‘245 - Tories = Watford
Undies Soiled Leader Malfunction’
hmmm perhaps he should start assaulting his staff. Seems to do the trick for Brown.
291. Good spot of bottom fishing I suspect, URW. Don’t you find the spreads a bit wide on these markets, though?
Isn’t Osborne the shadow chancellor? Why is making a speech about climate change?
291 - URW, the irony is that just about the last believers in a substantial overall majority appear to be two non-Tories, while Ave It is talking up Labour. All the fundamentals remain very good for the Tories. A month in the general election of relentless attacks on Labour’s record and Gordon Brown’s personality will see them home very comfortably. It won’t be pretty but it will be effective.
“Why is making a speech about climate change?”
Because it’s more believable than his economic policies?
269 tax…
282 Another Richard
Can the swing against the Conservatives in Scotland be explained by Easterross booking a holiday in Ayia Napa, Cyprus for the fortnight beginning May 2nd 2010?
Kieran tells me that that his holiday is statistically irrelevant but I still think we should be told.
They are many conservatives who only support Cameron because he promises victory, like Tony Blair before him did for Labour.
I mean, Climate Change? Really?
289 - You have a valid point and an interesting one for pollsters to deal with and in that sense Scotland is special against a ‘normal’ region.
However the E + W sample is still affected by the Scottish one. If lots of Labour voters and few Conservative ones are in the Scottish sample this will affect the E + W sample. However given Scotland does not make up a large proportion of the UK the effect is limited.
Taking the comres poll tonight the Lab / Tory swing in E + W is virtually identical to the UK as a whole.
UK - Tory lead by 7%, swing of 5%
E + W - Tory lead by 10%, swing of 5%
This is affected by rounding, and the swing in E + W may be marginally higher, but there is not a significant gap.
297. Antifrank - I agree. There are a lot of old women on this site who start running around screaming whenever the polls fluctuate a bit. I hope they don’t bet too often - ‘buy at the top, sell at the bottom’ is never too clever an approach.
291 runnymede. It goes like this. I got matched at 347.0 prior to the publication of the Com Res poll, so when I heard it showed a lead of just seven points I put in a bid of 340.5 hoping for a bite.
I got one ! As to ‘bottom-fishing’, a lot depends on the next ICM.If that too shows both Parties in the 30s the Line might go lower.
Curiously I find myself in agreement with both tim and SeanT as to the difficulties and erros of the Conservative leaderhip.
With tim I agree that Conservative policies don’t look thought out (irrespective of whether you agree with the underlying ideas) and as they’ve had plenty of time to think things through it doesn’t make them look competant.
With SeanT I think the Conservatives are being far too weak. There is unlimted targets to attack Labour on and yet they don’t. The whole detoxify and don’t be nasty idea has gone too far. Thatcher was hated by many but nobody ever thought of her as weak.
I suspect that the underlying Conservative problem is that the ‘Cameron Project’ was based on being a ‘nice’ party in a ‘nice’ world. A bit of overseas aid and greenery here and a little tax cutting and support for marriage there, the whole ‘Heir to Blair’ meme. Unfortunately for Cameron and Osborne the background has changed and they don’t convince in the new more difficult situation.
292 Kieran
I accept your second paragraph and I am sure the effect of your posts will be that we will all be more diligent and cautious when analysing or drawing conclusions from regional sub-samples.
Osborne telling us about labour been all over the place on the economy on tory TV,FFS osborne,get out to thr real media,instead of your own supporters tv that NO one watches.
http://www.conservatives.com/Video/Conservatives_TV.aspx?id=89f9d02c-53f4-47ba-8ae0-a455be2a8db1
298. But Rod, according to your view of politics it doesn’t matter what Osborne makes his speech about tomorrow. Indeed, it doesn’t matter what economic policies the Tories have or don’t have.
297. Antifrank - I agree. I think the Labour vote is going to come out sufficiently to keep the headline numbers reasonably tight and to prevent a rout, but the Tories will sweep the marginals in the midlands, Kent, and Lancashire and will come out with a decent majority. Labour has shown no signs of being able to develop a strategy that would allow it to hold on to these seats.
The only real questions are how the Lib Dems and SNP will perform, and whether Gordon can get through the campaign without a major disaster which reverses the recent hardening in the core Labour vote.
If you compare this poll to the Comres one on 27th oct, where the published headlines were: 40 27 18, you’ll go mad.
The only major difference* I can see, is a massive jump in certainty to vote in the Labour column. No change to speak of for any other party (see page 6) at all that I can see.
*Apart from the myriad sampling problems of course.
116.”Didn’t Cameron used to be more popular with women than men? What accounts for his fall with females? The broken society stuff?”
GIN, I have found one consistent fact among female family and friends over the last couple of years, Cameron is a vote winner for them. And he does even better in the 30-50 age group. He comes across as nice, solid and down to earth. And most importantly, I keep hearing that they think he is the genuine. And its a more positive vote for him rather than his party or policies, that shift for the latter has come later as Brown has become more unpopular and the economy nose dived off a cliff. I do wonder if there is some sort of shy Tory female vote developing in the polls for some reason.
308. I know!
But I derive sadistic pleasure from the thought they think it might! 
297 antifrank
just about the last believers in a substantial overall majority appear to be two non-Tories
I remain a believer and I most certainly am not a “non-tory”.
I am now convinced your surgeon removed the wrong organ.
309 - It is looking increasingly likely that the SNP will underperform. The Lib Dems remain a complete enigma to me.
311. Interesting Christina. You’d think if anything women (and men) would be more shy about supporting Labour?
313 - Which organ do you think I’m missing?
310 astateofdenmark
“a massive jump in certainty to vote in the Labour column”
I wonder how much of that is due to the Cameron poster campaign.
It must only be a few days before pollsters start asking this question or similar.
Which government would you prefer in the event of a hung parliament?
Lab/Lib Dem coalition
Tory/Lib Dem coalition
etc…
Im guessing osborne will set out to correct the ridiculous telegraph headline about driver taxes going up to pay for marriage breaks. A stupid and damaging story in my view from a supposedly tory paper. If there is one thing you dont do, its threaten motorists will increased costs (remember brown’s retrospective road tax idea!). He’ll probably repeat his recycling reward scheme and home efficiency scheme, contrasting his reward schemes with labours punishment schemes.
So all this panic, not to mention media narrative, is because a subset of labour voters (about 20%) have decided between Oct and Jan that they are no longer 3 or 4 certain to vote, but are now 5 or 6.
312.
URW
Is there a technical term for when a bookie marking up his prices the wrong way round?
And is there a technical term for the feeling a punter gets when he notices?
Because that’s what happened this week on one of the constituency bets. £100 on at 2/1 when its now up correctly at 1/3.
Lab 1/5 new favourites!!!!!!!!
Rod crosby 1/50 = new PM!!!!!!!!!!
Biggest con meltdown since 1906!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
320. Other than poor aveit, I’ve not seen anybody rushing for the lifeboats on the Tory side this evening. The mood has been quite restrained given the provocation from “the other side”
oldnat
Who knows. Could be the imminence of the GE sharpening minds. Could be noise. Could be the core vote stuff. Could be more people had lucky number 5.
What I do know, is that the only change I can see in the two Comres polls is certainty to vote amongst labour voters. Everyone else is steady.
Which spoils Bunker narrative 345252.
Wikipedia’s list of PM notable events/achievements is available here. Gordon’s are
N/T Oxfordspring
205. another richard.
If the Tories bash Labour now, will the electorate still be listening by the election campaign.
It’s important to not peak too early.
322 another richard- It’s called a ‘palpable error’ and you don’t want to get involved with one of those.
‘Palps’ are just about the worst news ever for a novice punter. If you aren’t careful, you lose when your bet loses and get your stake returned if it wins.
314 antifrank
“It is looking increasingly likely that the SNP will underperform.”
While that may be the case, there is no real evidence of that. Such a conclusion can’t be made without a range of Scottish polls. Preferably including some that either don’t use newspaper readership as a weighting factor - or know how to use it in a Scottish context.
We are still reliant on the two November polls showing a 10% variation in the SNP voting intention then.
Anyone thinking of putting a bet on Scottish seats, should still consider Easterross’s analysis as the best around so far.
324 - The Keep Calm tendency (we oldies) are doing just that. I’m a compassionate soul and am quite unperturbed at the Nazeee from Crosby having his manic gloat.
131.”The big question is - will Gordon be tempted into a March election?”
Ted, I do hope so.
Very interesting Scottish Newsnight, its appeal is increasing because it usually means I don’t have to watch Michael Crick.
Worth watching the whole 20mins if available on line later. But the last segment focused on Griffiths and Moffatt news, and also the amount of Labour ‘talent’ ( I use that term loosely) at Holyrood now jumping ship and seeking Westminster seats. The list is growing.
This could impact on Gray’s team at Holyrood, and not helpful with the Scottish elections looming next year. But I think that there are definite problems on the horizon for the SLP both at Holyrood and Westminster as Brown’s power base wanes as others vie to take control.
Anyhoos, apparently Griffiths decision to take a job outside Parliament, standing down at the last minute, has not gone down well with his local constituency. And considering how long ago he was plastered over the Sunday’s, you have to wonder why he is now suddenly going? I think this is going to be a Labour loss on GE night, but who too is the big question?
i have put money on lab hold crawley!!!!!!!!!!!
329 - We are lucky to have many excellent Scottish posters (though it’s a shame we don’t have more Scottish Lib Dems and a selection of Scottish Labour supporters).
332 ok its a lie
I think we will still be the biggest party!!! (con)
330.John O, not going to claim to be an oldie, but I am totally relaxed about the polls this weekend. I think that there is a tendency to look under the bed every time the polls have a wobble, when instead we should be looking out side to see if the weather has actually changed in stead.
FOR ALL YE TORIE’S
the gordon brown song,
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mz5xeFYbWWM
334. I can go to bed happy. I was getting worried then. Just think of all that curtain fabric Sam and Cam would have wasted if Downing St was snatched away from them now.
333 antifrank
That’s because we collect all our rubbish (Keep Scotland Tidy) and send them south packaged as Labour MPs!
After the events on autumn/December 2008 the polls don’t frighten me. I have learned to take a longer view.
i love sam!!!!!!!!!!!
338
I love malcolmG
another richard:
I cannot see how this sub-movements can be correct. Labour got 36% in 2005 and according to this, everywhere they are -5 or worse. -9% in the Midlands and -6% in SE [ incl. LOndon ] , the two most heavily populated areas. ONly SW and Wales, it is -4%.
It does not tie up.
AV - I didn’t think this would actually come forward as a proposal. Have the UK Tories done the calculations as to what it would mean, and who they think would benefit most?
Query, any PBee lurkers out there who are able to cast any further light on the Labour situation in Ann Moffatt’s constituency? The media reported the police had to be called to the association meeting last week, this has surely got to be damaging the party there, especially as she has now got to be officially deselected by the powers that be, and they ain’t rushing to do so with a GE weeks away?
URW
Thanks for giving me something to worry about
Surely a respectable bookie would have to return your stake as soon as he realised and not after the event?
Richard Navabi @191: “Let’s be clear: [a long list of political events and revelations]: all that is noise, and hardly affects the probabilities of a hung parliament, which has been prefigured in the stars since 2005.”
This is the fascinating thing about Rod’s theory, and obviously it will be much more fascinating if the theory correctly predicts the next general election.
In its defence, were you following this site during the US primaries when Obama was fighting Clinton? Every week there was a new game-changing gaffe, a new triumphant fight-back or some other life-and-death event in the ADD-suffering / bipolar-syndrome-stricken media.
When Clinton did well in a primary the pundits all put it down to event x, and when Obama did will they put it down to event y. But the whole time the actual results were just plodding along exactly as it said in RodCrosby’s spreadsheet…
Bad news for those of us who support election night:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/blog/2010/feb/01/friday-election-count-appropriate
341. I did some calculations published here a few years ago.
another richard- Not knowing whether you placed your bet on line or in a shop makes it difficult to comment.
I would ask for confirmation as to whether the bet stands or not.
Off to Bedford Races after a very exciting day.
So Nick Robinson suggests that even if the AV amendment is passed next week, theres very little chance of it becoming law;
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/nickrobinson/2010/02/electoral_refor.html
So once again this is nothing more than Gordon Brown playing another one of his silly games and this actually wasting Parliamentery time to do so.
The comments are worth reading. Most are simply incredulous!
345 i expect at least 450 to count overnight and that will be enough to call the result
Altho if SPANNER CAMO doesnt get his act together we will still be worrying if cleggo has the balance of power when we wake up on friday..
340. GIN: “After the events on autumn/December 2008 the polls don’t frighten me.”
There are definitely parallels with that time ie. Labour successfully portrayed the tories as wobbly and unpatriotic on the economy and it worked, for a short time.
However, we were entering a (moderate) recession back then, which saved the tories, but now we’re, hopefully, entering a recovery.
It’s back to the old maxim: “It’s the economy, stupid” - more so now than in the last 3 GEs.
Your team are Cameron and Osborne who seem to be engaged in a race to the bottom.
341. RedCrosby told me it would mean there would never again be another Conservative government. It Lib/Lab pacts until the end of time under Av, I’m afraid.
350. Gabby, one or two quarters of slightly positive growth doesn’t equal a recovery.
gabble = bradford city
nows thats a race to the bottom
“Cameron axes loan £50bn guarantee plan”
“The Tory leader’s decision to axe the plan, which he first suggested at the height of the credit crunch in November 2008, is an implicit admission that the economy is recovering.”
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/7bc0c2cc-0f4e-11df-8a19-00144feabdc0.html
What interests me is that before the Electoral Commission was set up it was just taken for granted by almost everyone that the vast majority of seats would be counted on the night. It wasn’t even an issue.
Suddenly, as soon as the Electoral Commission is set up, they start challenging an established way of doing things which had absolutely no problems associated with it.
The problem is that once a body is set up like the EC they seem to feel as if they have to keep coming up with initiatives in case somebody asks the awkward question of what the point of their existence is in the first place.
342 christinaD
Don’t think I count as a lurker! But you’ll find a lot of detail here
http://www.eastlothiancourier.com
including the suggestion that Anne Moffat’s husband was part of the “mob” and has a life ban from the Labour Club as a result.
Matbe Nick Palmer can tell us when the next NEC meeting will be, as the only word from the Labour Party appears to be that the NEC will consider this at the next opportunity.
Fascinating that the Tories are now four points behind amongst women. Not sure if there’s any real significance to that, but it must be the first time it’s happened for a while. Certainly a complete reversal of the way the gender gap worked in the 80s/early 90s.
I’ve been comparing the Ladbrokes constituency odds to the UKPR Conservative target seat list.
The following look like good bets:
Harrow East Con 4/9, target 56 and leading expenses fiddler Tony NcNulty as MP. In comparison Hendon (target 63) is 1/9 and Eltham (target 66) is 1/10. If the Conservatives don’t win this then its goodbye Cameron.
Portsmouth South Con 6/4, target 69. Better Conservative odds than for seats with larger majorities such as Bath, Oxford W, Mid Dorset, Cornwall N and others.
Workington Lab 5/6, lot of dispute as to how big the notional majority here is and MP said to be popular.
Aberdeenshire W, LibDem 4/6. The Conservatives are 6/5 here in their target 171. compare with Portsmouth S.
URW
It was online.
Thanks though, I’ll check.
345 - Considering hundreds of constituencies have already confirmed to be counting on the Thursday night I really dont see what the fuss is about. If a party is looking likely to get a majority that is quite prominent then it is likely a confirmation of the result would be in by the end of the night.
Only a hung parliament would point towards the friday counts being the day of the full results.
356.oldnat, thanks, that really is a local party in meltdown.
361 ChristinaD
It’s difficult to see how any local party (of any colour) could recover from that kind of publicity in the local press.
ChristinaD
Any idea how the Pope’s criticism of Labour play with Scottish Catholics (in political terms) given Murphy’s desperation to be so directly linked with his visit?
http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/home-news/outrage-as-pope-attacks-uk-equality-laws-ahead-of-state-visit-1.1003141
360. Even on the old pattern of counting, a hung parliament would have meant we’d have been on tenterhooks until the Friday. But what’s happening is still a bad thing as a matter of principle.
AndyJS @355: “Suddenly, as soon as the Electoral Commission is set up, they start challenging an established way of doing things which had absolutely no problems associated with it.”
Reading people’s posts here you wouldn’t have thought that they had absolutely no problems. You’d have thought that Democracy was in danger from postal voting fraud. People who think this is happening a lot tend to blame Labour for increasing the availability of postal voting, which was previously only for people who claimed they couldn’t vote on the day. But if you wanted to cast fraudulent postal votes you’d have been perfectly capable of lying about your situation under the old rules.
Personally I’m not convinced about the massive postal vote fraud thing, but since a lot of people out there apparently are, I don’t think it’s fair to criticize the Electoral Commission for adding extra checks to crack down on it, even if they take a bit more time.
360 - there is one scenario in which it could be important:
If the exit polls shows a small Tory majority but the results on the night are leaning towards a hung parliament, it gives time to Brown to start negotiating with the LibDems, Plaid Cymu, SDLP, etc. The overnight result would set the tone for Brown to attempt to stay in power, giving him some breathing space. Even if the Friday results are more Tory-friendly he would have a head start so-to-speak which he wouldn’t have if 95% of the results come through on the night in the space of a few short hours.
In 1992 the Tories were 5 seats short overnight, but they had very safe seats like Buckingham, Richmond (YORKS), Chelsea, Skipton&Ripon, Daventry to come through on Friday.
364 James Kelly
Friday was really exciting in Feb 1974. My Higher class were running an update service on the election as the rural seats came in (SNP/PC gains were critical). I never had so many visitors - staff and senior pupils - to my room!
367. I must admit I watched almost the entire replay when it was on BBC Parliament a few years ago, so I can almost say I ‘remember’ it too!
363.oldnat, honestly, I am still pondering this latest news. There is no doubt that Murphy is desperately trying to build bridges with the Scottish Roman Catholic Church right now, and that his active involvement in arranging this trip has got a lot of publicity. But I am surprised anyone is surprised at the Pope’s public views on this. He will have been well briefed about the current situation over here, and how its brought the Church into open conflict with the government.
I don’t think these latest comments from the Vatican are going to shift one vote to be honest, those that feel deeply about it will have already shifted politically anyway. I have watched with a lot of interest, the way that the Catholic Church up here has become more involved with politics for 10 years now. No surprise really, they feel strongly because they feel threatened by it.
365. EiT.
The thing is, they don’t take enough more time to make a Friday count necessary, unless the RO and his staff are falling down on the job.
368 - I’ve uploaded it to YouTube, (apologies if you already know), although only the on-the-night coverage so far:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z08foh7ExcE&
I’ve also uploaded the 1979 show, including the next day coverage:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=exWDguPklGg&
Trying to get hold of the Feb 1974 election at the moment.
Excellent article by Rachel Sylvester
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/rachel_sylvester/article7011597.ece
Surprise, surprise - the 50p tax is being dodged
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article7011728.ece
Christina, Labour in Scotland are actively trying to get the support of the Pope and the Orange order. As soon as policies are involved then of course things get difficult.
And Glasgow is watching what happens in Norn Iron more than most with their sectarian issues a microcosm of what happens there.
The marching season to ridicule your religious opponents happens in Scotland as well do not forget, albeit on a smaller scale.
Perhaps the Pope should ask for marches to be banned as they invite racial hatred. As a mixed catholic-protestant myself I would like all that King Billy stuff to be consigned to history where I believe it now belongs. Time to move into the 21st century amd leave the 17th behind.
But no political party would have the guts to alienate some of their core voters so these expensive charades continue.
325: certainty to vote is pretty important, Denmark (though I’d agree with your implication that it shifts about more readily than party-changing). The Tory majority disappears altogether without it in most polls - Labour usually leads in ‘all naming a party’ but when it loses an election it’s because they don’t turn out. Also, paradoxically, YouGov doesn’t weight by certainty, so the Tory slide there is diue to something else.
oldnat - afraid not: like most MPs I’ve never followed the doings of the NEC with much interest. That’s why I wasn’t bothered by Watt - I could only vaguely remember him, and actually I couldn’t tell you who his current successor is.
And also remember there is a strong religious component to how people vote in Scotland; the SNP have far more Catholic voters pro rata than dyed in the wool Union Jack Protestants. And Murphy in his role as Wastemonster ubersturmfuhrer is well aware of that!
369 ChristinaD
My Catholic friends are all either lapsed or liberal, and while some are political floaters, they won’t be influenced by this issue. I don’t have a “feel”, however, whether this might have an effect within those communities who might be influenced by the priest laying down the law (if such communities still exist).
I think from memory James Kelly has some cracking facts and figures on the religious breakdown in SNP support.
O/T Its gone midnight,so a very,very happy 70th birthday to Sir David Jason-who doubtless many of us,from whichever political persuasion,will always cherish as ‘Del Boy’ of ‘Only Fools and Horses’; Sir David,I charge my glass! (Tell that plonker Rodney to shift his backside!)
379 Patrick West Ham fan who is basically Labour but despairs of Gordon Brown
Clinking glasses to him will inevitably recall the chandelier!
Patrick# And Darling Buds Of May, Frost, and bike boy Granville with Ronnie Barker.
All rather successful, and all very different.
377.oldnat, I suspect that if Labour have lost any votes over this, they lost them a while ago.
Nite all.
380 As I have stated here before,the famous chandelier incident was filmed only 25 miles west of me ,resident in Bournemouth,off the ‘B’ road leading from Dorchester to Sherborne
381 I do recall ‘G’-'G’-'Gran’-'ville’ from ‘Open All Hours’=somehow it seemed a shame that such a naturally open,talented person as Jason played such a down-trodden character.
BTW-you did miss out David Jason,who was only 35 in 1975,playing ‘Old Man Blaco’ in ‘Porridge’-apparaently it used to take 2-3 hours to make him up to be bald,frail and old!
(For a guy who is probably a true cockney ie born within sound of the Bow Bells,he dcan do abloody good Yorkshire accent!)
372.Rachel Sylvester is making the same mistake that a few on here have been making in the last couple of days. Stop looking under the Tory bed for spiders, look at the weather outside instead. This week the public have been doing their January finances while being fed Chilcott daily, the Tories have barely been on their radar.
No budget or GE date yet, the economy will continue to drift. The fact that is now being pinned on the Tories by some in the media simple shows that its now on Labour’s radar, and they are worried about it.
373.No surprises there, this tax increase was a nod to the Labour core vote and an attempt to place the Conservatives on the wrong side of the argument. Cameron and Osborne called their bluff, and did so amidst much criticism from their own side, particular the right leaning media. The latter have a tendency to call it wrong more than they call it right.
Good cartoon!
http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Guardian/Pix/pictures/2010/2/2/1265073244729/Steve-Bell-cartoon-020220-001.jpg
LondonStatto @370, have you read bunnco’s piece on Friday counting?
http://politicalbetting.blogspot.com/2009/09/spoilt-ballots-friday-count-debate.html
He reckons that in rural constituencies they’d need to buy more signature-checking machines to get the job done on the night. If he’s right, it’s a question of council priorities - divert money from other services or do the counting on Friday - rather than somebody falling down on the job.
3 weeks to go now until the date when a March 25th poll might be called.
If the polls carry on in the same direction and some show the Tory lead at 5% or less I think there’ll be some pressure on Brown to take advantage of it like he didn’t in 2007.
387 - my view is that since an election only happens twice a decade the money should be provided so that the votes can be counted immediately. Save money on other things that are not so important, like reducing the number of quangos or whatever.
I do find it rather puritanical that some people are saying money should be saved by delaying election night. In the 1960s and 70s when the country was a lot poorer than it is today, most constituencies didn’t hesitate to count the votes on the night, including a lot of rural constituencies.
387. EiT.
I have, but it’s been debunked. There’s no significant history of people handing in postal votes on the day (and in any case, it shouldn’t be permitted - if you can hand it in, you shouldn’t be getting a postal vote).
389 Andy JS
“an election only happens twice a decade”
My voting pattern (future and past) in this millenium
2012 Local Elections
2011 Scottish Parliament Elections
2010 Westminster Elections
2009 European Parliament Elections
2008 I didn’t have an election!
2007 Scottish Parliament & Local Elections
2005 Westminster Elections
2004 European Parliament Elections
2003 Scottish Parliament Elections
2002 I didn’t have an election!
2001 Westminster Elections
You were saying?
390 - what that means is that the result in a lot of seats is going to be delayed because postal votes aren’t being verified when they could be, on polling day itself. Instead verification can’t start until 10pm on polling day, delaying the entire count.
This is precisely the sort of thing the Electoral Commission should be taking an interest in but unfortunately they don’t seem to be interested.
I missed
2006 I didn’t have an election!
So my local officials have had to count votes in all but 3 years between 2001 and 2012
391 - I missed out the word “general”. I don’t think it’s important when the counting takes place in other kinds of elections, it’s just general elections which I think should be brought to a conclusion as soon as possible.
392. Andy JS: verification can’t start until 10pm on polling day
Not as I understand it. If that’s true, can you please provide me with a source so I can revise my understanding?
88.Andy, given that Labour have momentum and Brown’s bounces are always notoriously short-lived and few and far in between, a March election SHOULD be favourite.
It would avoid Brown going to the Chilcot inquiry and risking any banana skins there. It would also avoid having to present a budget. It would also avoid the possibility of 2010 Q1 figures showing us sliding back into recession.
The most encouraging fact about the recent polls for those of us who are desperate to see the back of Brown as PM is the fact that he lack the bottle to call a March election and that he appears to be increasingly boxed in to waiting another 3 months.
A March election is the last thing that David Cameron wants and I am sure you would see a lot more unease amongst most of the posters on this site, if an early election were called.
394 Andy JS
We have two types of general elections! I understand that you have only one type, but you offer no support for your view that Westminster somehow has a magical quality that requires Na h-Eileanan An Iar or Orkney & Shetland to count overnight.
395: it is an assumption by me - but if that isn’t the case, why are some counts being delayed until the next day because of new security checks on postal votes? They would be able to check them during election day and then counting could proceed as normal at 10pm.
398 Andy JS
Your assumptions are no basis for planning. It may well be that in your LA there are lots of staff sitting around doing nothing for most of the year.
In all the LAs I know, normal services are already reduced to a low service level on the 2 or 3 days prior to an election. On an election day (and the following day) normal services are reduced to a skeleton service as staff are involved in manning polling stations etc. Just who do you think would be available to count these postal votes on election day?
Returning Officers deal with practicalities, and know their local circumstances far better than someone who just wants to enjoy election night theatre.
Nytol
399 - don’t agree with you.
Election night is the single most important thing that happens in politics. Everything else that takes place in the country for the next five years depends on who wins. Let’s have the result as quickly as possible like in 2005, 2001, 1997, 1992, 1987 and 1983. In 1992 only 19 seats declared the next day. I think 18 years later we should be able to do almost as well as that, although I accept the new rules on postal voting mean that a few more seats may need to wait until the Friday.
I think the Tory MP for Wellingborough, Peter Bone, was right when he described returning officers who delay proceedings in seats where overnight counts have taken place for many elections as “tin-pot, upstart little town clerks”.
LondonStatto @390: “[bunnco's post has] been debunked”
Sorry, I missed the debunking. Are you saying this paragraph is wrong:
“In most cases, all this validation can all be done ahead of time as the postals dribble-in during the days preceding polling day but in the Euro elections in neighbouring South Norfolk last June, 600 postal ballots were handed in on the day at the polling station. We know that in The General there’ll be more postals, more will be handed in on the day and the turnout will be higher. So returning officers are now estimating that 10% of the total number of postals will be handed in at the polling station.
…or are you saying that even on the basis of those numbers, it’s not all that many in the grand scheme of things?
If bunnco is wrong and not the postal-vote-checking thing, what _is_ the issue here? Just staff costs?
If the exit poll shows a clear Tory majority of, say, 50 seats, but the winning threshold still hasn’t been crossed on Friday afternoon, what happens in that situation?
Will Gordon hang around in No 10 for another 12 hours even though he knows he’s just been voted out of office?
The BBC opened up a “Have your say” debate at 21:15, regarding the proposed change in the voting system, to which I contributed. About three hours later they closed it after publishing just 14 out of the 74 comments received.
What’s the point in that??
http://newsforums.bbc.co.uk/nol/thread.jspa?sortBy=1&forumID=7464&edition=1&ttl=20100202025620&#paginator
I still don’t know when postal votes are able to be verified. If it’s before 10pm as someone implied earlier, then I can’t think why counts are being delayed until Friday.
If the exit poll shows a clear Tory majority of say 50 seats, but the winning threshold still hasn’t been crossed on Friday afternoon, what happens in that situation?
Will Gordon hang around in No 10 even though he knows he’s just been voted out of office and possibly lost about half his MPs?
398. Andy JS: why are some counts being delayed until the next day because of new security checks on postal votes?
Because lazy and/or penny-pinching ROs are using it as an excuse.
402. EiT.
I’m saying for one thing that we can’t assume that “in The General there’ll be more postals [and] more will be handed in on the day”.
The debunking to which I referred was based on parliamentary by-elections.
These were the seats that were scheduled to count the next day in 1992:
1. Argyll & Bute
2. Berwick-upon-Tweed
3. Boothferry
4. Brecon & Radnor
5. Bridlington
6. Buckingham
7. Chelsea
8. Daventry
9. Devon West & Torridge
10.Gainsborough
11.Harborough
12.Kensington
13.Lewes
14.Ludlow
15.Rother Valley
16.Richmond (YORKS)
17.Skipton & Ripon
18. Truro
19. Wentworth
Notice that every Scottish seat declared on the night apart from Argyll&Bute, and every Welsh seat apart from Brecon&Radnor. So seats like Western Isles, Orkney&Shetland, Ross, Montgomery were all able to count on the night. For some reason, Chelsea and Kensington counted the next day.
Most of the other English seats that counted on Friday were relatively rural but most of them were not what one would describe as very rural. The largest seat in area, Penrith and the Border, counted on the night.
That was the situation 18 years ago - at the lowest point of a bad recession as well. No-one mentioned anything about saving money on that occasion.
404. The process of verifying and adjudicating postal votes has to continue right up to 10pm on Thursday because people are allowed to hand them in at any time at any polling station. The electoral staff have to allow for the likelihood that some will arrive very late, and make arrangements for collecting and processing them.
408 - thanks John.
But surely that does mean that the vast majority should be able to be checked before 10pm? Only a small percentage would be handed in just before 10pm on election day?
They must know how many people have applied for postal votes. So if 5,000 have applied and most of those have already been handed in before polling day, they know there won’t be many more to process on election day itself.
Of course some people may choose not to return their postal votes which may make things difficult, if the staff are waiting for postal votes which never arrive.
If so, I’d like to know why this is being used as the main reason to delay the count in a lot of seats.
409, according to Bunnco’s (as far as I can tell from this thread still-un-debunked) piece, it’s logistically difficult in a rural constituency to arrange secure collection of the postal votes that are handed in during the day. So it’s not just the ones handed in right before 10pm they have to worry about. In urban constituencies, Bunnco reckons the returning officers will be doing what you suggest and checking the bulk of them during the day, so they only have a few to worry about after the polls close.
410. EiT.
Logistics difficulties can generally be solved with initiative. For instance, if a car/transit can be made available (and it can), polling stations can report to the RO if they have received a significant number of PVs, and the ballot boxes they are in [*] can then be collected in rounds at times during the day.
[*] I’m assuming they’re collected in ballot boxes, but they could be cardboard boxes if the PVs themselves are sealed, I guess.
I think what is actually meant by “logistically difficult” is “expensive” or “troublesome” - as I said, penny-pinching and lazy ROs.
410 - thanks, that explains the situation for rural seats. The problem is a lot of urban seats have decided to count on Friday: for example both Milton Keynes seat, both Northampton seats and both Reading seats.
I just think there should be some consistency about the decisions returning officers make. Some large rural seats have decided to count on the night, such as Bridgwater & West Somerset, Cambridgeshire NE, Devon North.
Another good example is Richmond (YORKS), William Hague’s seat. In 1992 this was one of only 15 rural English seats to count on the Friday, yet this time it’s actually counting on the night.