ComRes: “37 percent say Blair should face war crime charges”
February 2nd, 2010
…and 60% say Brown should share responsibility
More information has just been published from the weekend ComRes poll and it doesn’t make comfortable reading for either Blair and his successor.
A majority believes that Gordon Brown should share the blame while almost almost four in 10 people believe that Blair should face a war crimes trial over the 2003 invasion.
The findings are a setback for Brown, who will give evidence to the Chilcot inquiry into the war in the next few weeks. Brown Central had hoped that the conflict would be seen as “Blair’s war”.
Some 37 per cent of people believe that Mr Blair should be put on trial for going to war with Iraq, while 57 per cent disagree. Those who support a trial include more than one in four (27 per cent) of Labour supporters.
Younger people are the most hostile towards the former Prime Minister. Some 46 per cent of 18-24 year-olds and 43 per cent of 43 per cent of 25-34 year-olds agree that he should face a trial, compared to less than one in four of those aged 65 and over.
Generally only three in 10 people (29 per cent) regard the war as largely a success, while 63 per cent do not.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
get in there
shortest thread on record?
Oh dear
going for the hat trick…
I love Gordon!
>>>>>>>>>>>Betting Post<<<<<<<<<<<<
More interesting than war crimes is making money…
Labour to win Nuneaton 5/2 with Ladbrokes.
Last night you could get Tories 4/6 with PaddyPower, for a 12.6% return at full hedge. Seems PP have taken that one down now. Still a good Labour price at Ladbrokes though.
Last night you could also get No Tory Majority at PP 3/1, filled my boots with that one!
FPT 105.
Of course Brown should share responsibility for the Iraq war, as should any cabinet member at the time and any MP that voted for it.
It’s almost a statement of fact - I’m surprised it’s not greater than 60%.
Sadly Cam, like Hague, IDS and Howard before him, seems to think Iraq was a good idea - So once again a perfectly good area with which the Tories could attack Labour goes down the pan.
Some things never change do they?
If this is true, then why is Labour going up in the polls a bit with the Tories static and the LibDems flatlining? We know the LibDems tend to benefit from the Iraq issue so why aren’t we seeing it in the polls?
2 Nope - it’s this one
“That honour is mine, thanks to this thread:
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2008/08/09/does-this-have-wider-implications/
Only 7 comments, 5 by me, in 75 minutes: I gave up waiting for people to care and published a second article!
by Morus January 3rd, 2010 at 5:30 am “
Whilst perfectly understandable that Blair’s actions should provoke strong feelings, he shouldn’t face charges if only because the chances of conviction would be zero. And he is a hero in the US.
Amazing - the massed ranks of the people will soon be storming the palace of Westminster to arraign the Labour war criminals, while Blair’s many residences will be attacked and gutted by angry mobs.
Or perhaps not.
8 its the turquoise effect
re 5. The Nuneaton 2005 notionals are:-
Lab 18,652 (46.64%); C 14,758 (36.90%); LD 5,008 (12.52%); UKIP 1,574 (3.94%)
Unless there is something dramatic going on locally this looks a certain Tory gain. You might have further information - but this requires a swing of less than 4%.
Hasn’t Clair Short’s testimony today been quite helpful to Brown, in that she painted him as being either aloof from the rush to war, or even excluded? He can go before Chilcot and say “I knew nothing….”
Blair on the other hand wasn’t believed on the day and has today been painted as an out and out liar. Does Chilcot have the power to recall Blair?
14. Marquee Mark: “Does Chilcot have the power to recall Blair?”
Yes, and I thought they gently alluded to this towards the end of his evidence. It wouldn’t surprise me if he was recalled.
Is 37% less than think Diana was murdered?
Arkansas Senator Blanche Lincoln, up for re-election this year, is already trailing her newly-announced likely opponent by 56% to 33%:
http://www.politico.com/blogs/glennthrush/0210/Lincoln_approval__27_percent.html#comments
These are almost unheard of numbers for an incumbent senator seeking re-election, especially since none of her problems are related to ethics. Despite the conservative nature of her home state, she won easily in 1998 and 2004. And she’s not the only one; incumbent Democratic senators all across the country are running into unprecedented trouble (even Chuck Schumer in New York now has an approval rating under 50% for the first time since the beginning of his Senate career). The election of Obama may indeed still result in a political realignment in the U.S., but not the sort of realignment that Democrats had been hoping for.
15. I thought I read the other day that Blair was being recalled?
14. Chilcot confirmed to Blair that the committee reserves the right to recall him if they felt it appropriate.
Roger, in case you missed my reply on last thread clue was actually meant to be 13, 4.
I think the killer from Short on Brown was that once he was happy Blair wasn’t going to move him the meetings over coffee stopped. He didn’t need to cultivate her support anymore so dropped her.
Blair did the same was he stopped her resigning before the war, afterwards she didn’t matter.
13 A BNP candidate at Nuneaton would make a mess of sorting that one out. The BNP does very well in council elections in the area, usually at the expense of the Tories.
Need to see all the runners and riders before trying to pick a winner in Nuneaton.
I agree Nuneaton will likely be a Tory gain, but 12.6% return on your money in 3 months marginally edges out what the banks are offering!
Ch4News doing Ashcroft now.
14 I thought Chilcott had already recalled Tony? Short said Gordon was ‘preoccupied’ with other things - that doesn’t sound terribly good to me.
I think she tried to dump on Tony using Gordon - not a smart move, particularly given her statement that Gordon decided to blame the French…
John Redwood just on sky talking about cuts, it was clear concise and understandable G O take note, and the presenter tried to say there was no detail but got put back in her box very quickly.
18
I try my best not to recall Blair ever if I can help it. Vacuous little turd that he is.
20. Ted, I replied to your last post Re. climate change.
Since the war was a joint venture with the US, and the UK was a junior partner, are we expecting that Mr Bush will be extradited to stand alongside Mr Blair in the dock?
FPT - 90 - Might still get a repeat, a new R2K poll of Republican voters for Kos showed that she gets the most support of of all the names mentioned (although nobody gets high figures so nobody seems to fit what they want).
Here’s the figures -
Q - If the 2012 Primary for President were held today, which of the following would you vote for?
Palin - 16
Romney - 11
Cheney (!?!?!) - 10
Gingrich - 7
Huckabee - 7
Pawlenty - 3
Paul - 3
Thune - 2
Undecided - 42
Lots of jaw dropping figures in the rest of the poll but the ones that stand out for me are that 73% think that openly gay women and men should not be allowed to teach in schools and that 31% want to make contraception illegal.
http://www.dailykos.com/statepoll/2010/1/31/US/437
23. What are they doing to Ashcroft? :O
16. Tim
Nope
http://www.channel4.com/news/articles/society/one+in+four+think+diana+was+murdered/746347
Thought those percentages would be a bit higher.
Meanwhile, Auntie puts a nice AGW spin on an AGW professor’s difficulties - no mention that only about 3 Russian sites were used(!), and that the temperature data sets have been tampered with, because surprise surprise the warming effect they crave isn’t there. They really are clueless about how to report all of this!!
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/norfolk/8494497.stm
O/T: NEXT LABOUR LEADER BETTING IMPLICATIONS
I don’t know if this has been picked-up, but the Commons is about to start publishing lots more information according to the Speccie.
“…The Commons will also be publishing a record of all lunches, dinners and receptions MPs held for outside groups in the Palace of Westminster in the last five years. This is going to be an intriguing document and one that I suspect could set off another series of scandals. First of all, people will cross check this list against the list of electoral donations and there are sure to be some ‘cash for access’ controversies. There will also be an attempt to suggest that MPs share the views of every group that they have booked a room for.
One other thing this list will tell us is how extensive the positioning on the Labour side for the future leadership contests is. If we find that someone has had nearly every union over for a bite to eat then it will be safe bet that this MP is building up support for a run at being leader of deputy leader. ”
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/5747328/the-next-parliamentary-scandal.thtml
23,and ch4 can fcuk right off .
Thanks all for your responses on Blair being recalled to Chilcot.
re 28 No Bush could never appear with Blair because the US refused to accept the jurisdiction of the court. Labour did - and Blair is potentially vulnerable….though IO’m sure that Brown would do everything in his power to stop action again his predecessor.
32, Hunchman you must realise that the collapse of the AGW theory would be an even bigger blow to the BBC consciousness than the collapse of communism was.
31 I don’t think our security forces are that efficient.
The French could probably have pulled it off.
Channel 4 News trying to imply AShcroft support giving Tories an unfair advantage. I dont seem to recall Labour complaining in 1997 when they had the money pouring in from Lord Sainsbury and chums.
I knew Mary MacLeod’s family quite well as her father was the Free Presbyterian minister in Dingwall, his church directly opposite my first house. I hope she has improved as a candidate because she was crap when she stood against Charles Kennedy.
“Iraq inquiry to recall Tony Blair over possible conflicting evidence”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2010/feb/01/chilcot-inquiry-recalls-tony-blair
Ashcroft’s role in winning the Tory’s seats in 2010 will prove (excuse the pun) marginal. They may win a few seats more handsomely than they might otherwise have done, but probably very few extra seats. However, his role in winding up Lefties is priceless.
I suspect that in fifty years time he will still be remembered - but as the man who bought several hundred Victoria Cross medal groups for the nation.
41,and saved a football club for the nation
38. The French would have decorated them for it later, as well.
31/38 Wasn’t there an episode of Da Ali G show, where Elton John walked out after Ali asked him whether “She was wasted by da SAS, or was it just that French c*nt getting drunk?”
36 This reminds me of the novel Ghost by Robert Harris
http://www.independent.co.uk/arts-entertainment/books/reviews/the-ghost-by-robert-harris-394282.html
36. Mike Smithson: “I’m sure that Brown would do everything in his power to stop action again his predecessor.”
Not least because he would be in the dock aswell, along with everyone else who voted for war.
FPT, Antifrank - “It’s an honest view that’s simply wrong and untenable. Taking the whip is not, as you suggest, some kind of honorific like a Lord Mayor’s chain of office. It represents a shared political purpose. If you don’t want to be patronised, don’t keep digging holes deeper and deeper. You’re plain wrong - suck it up.”
Actually, I’d say all this gratuitous personal stuff is a pretty good sign that you realise you’ve dug yourself into an entrenched position that you can’t even begin to defend by any other means. I note you haven’t even begun to engage with my (fairly unanswerable) points about the SDLP being unable to hold Labour government ministries, or take part in labour internal elections. Or the joint maifestoes, or the fact taht Labour don’t support the SDLP’s Irish nationalism, and the hugely symbolic fact that leading Labour figures don’t campaign for the SDLP.
So yep, the SDLP acceptance of the Labour whip is symbolic. You know I’m right otherwise you’d have disputed my points, so let’s ‘forego the pleasantries’, shall we? The stuff about Elliot Morley and Clare Short was pretty desperate by any standards.
37 - I realise that perfectly well. Unfortunately, the AGW monster is just too big to dismantle overnight what with carbon cap and trade, the whole so called green energy industry, academic research grants dependent on it etc etc etc.
But collapse it will, and I shan’t be crying over all the spilt milk that ensues - all those people caught up in perpetrating this pernicious myth are all living on borrowed time, and the sooner they face the facts the better.
43/44 Here’s the transcript (warning, it is pretty crude) http://e-wok.com.au/e-Jokes/AliAndElton.htm
BBC News24Nick Robinson on Osborne now.
re 45. A great book Plato and given Harris’s close links to Blair & co I wondered how much truth there was in it.
50 He wasn’t known as Red Robbo for nothing.
47 - SDLP MPs are not unable to hold Labour government ministries. What gives you that idea? The current government has enlisted several ministers who are not Labour party members. It is easy to envisage circumstances where SDLP MPs would be Labour government ministers. I doubt most Labour MPs would bat an eyelid if the appointment was suitable.
Your absurd claim was that the Tories were 100 times closer to the UUP than Labour are to the SDLP. You are struggling to give evidence that they are more than 10% closer. The difference is as near as nothing.
You have not begun to address the point that taking the Labour whip demonstrates a shared political purpose, which holes you below the waterline and you’re taking in water badly. If I were you, I’d retreat to port before you find the waves closing over you.
36- That’s not entirely true. In terms of international law and the Rome Treaty, it would be possible to assert jurisdiction based on actions having an effect within a member country, even if the accused never set foot in that country. Convincing a non-member country to surrender an individual is of course a practical problem(they could still be grabbed Pinochet style, though).
ARS poll on euthanasia and assisted suicide: 71% prefer legalisation.
Sorry, link
http://www.visioncritical.com/2010/02/most-britons-support-euthanasia-and-would-not-prosecute-cases-of-assisted-suicide/
23: ‘Ch4News doing Ashcroft now.’
Hmm, a damp squib and not particularly damaging to the Tories. The C4 team were in Brentford, and Labour rather mucked it up by hiding away the sitting MP because of dodgy expenses.
36 Mike, thank you.
I’ve just been reading Chris Mullin’s A View from the Foothills which covers that period. It was eye-opening.
antifrank and James Kelly
Can we now close this argument? Many thanks.
any news on gordo running away to NI tonight or in the morning ? or will he front up at PMQs
59 Mike Smithson
Spoil sport. I’d just got the popcorn in.
Of course Brown, along with all other members of the cabinet and all MPs who voted for the war must share responsibility for it. This is the price of power. However I doubt if any one person, even Blair could be the sole villain in this issue. It is easy to be wise after the event and it is important that we retain the memory of the climate of fear which prevailed after 9/11. Brown is right to offer to answer questions and as it is probable, he has nothing to hide. Short had no reason to be generous to him today, so he is confident of being exonerated.
Meanwhile on the domestic front labour are as short termist and incompetent as ever or ‘Anything Wilson could do Brown can do better’. Building slums for the 21st Century:
The slums of tomorrow.
In chasing its short-term targets for new housing, Labour is storing up a legacy of unfit homes…..
In effect, the government is pushing through inadequate housing schemes in order to meet its target of having built 3m new homes before 2020. Disenchanted professionals have taken to calling the programme ”Building Slums for the Future” in a nod to the government’s other patchy mass construction scheme, Building Schools for the Future.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/feb/02/the-slums-of-tomorrow
58.Anne, Chris Mullin’s A View from the Foothills is going to be my next read. Had a good old rummage in Amazon and now have a tasty pile of interesting reads lined up. Looking forward to the Rory Stewart books I picked up too.
61 Me too
Perhaps such discussions are only suited to the night-shift…
46 - Don’t forget all those who supported the illegal war in Kosovo.
Try everyone.
47 James, the Labour Party policy since the formation of Northern Ireland was (and may still remain?) for Irish unity by consent, the same as the SDLP. For that reason it did not organise in or accept members from Northern Ireland. It took a court case to force acceptance of members but the shared approach with SDLP remains. The principle driving Labour was for Northern Ireland to unite with the Republic as a single unitary and independent Republic.
53. “SDLP MPs are not unable to hold Labour government ministries. What gives you that idea? The current government has enlisted several ministers who are not Labour party members. It is easy to envisage circumstances where SDLP MPs would be Labour government ministers. I doubt most Labour MPs would bat an eyelid if the appointment was suitable.”
Dear God, this is a thin argument, and I’m ever more convinced that you realise that. Don’t you think that the salient point is that there has never been an SDLP minister in a Labour government? Contrary to your nonsensical suggestion, I think a great many people would do more than merely ‘bat an eyelid’ if that was to ever happen.
“Your absurd claim was that the Tories were 100 times closer to the UUP than Labour are to the SDLP. You are struggling to give evidence that they are more than 10% closer. The difference is as near as nothing.”
What? What? The Tories/UUP in their current arrangement have - a) joint candidates, b) a joint manifesto, c) joint campaigns (ie Cameron will campaign for the UUP), d) the genuine prospect (indeed likelihood) of UUP government ministers at Westminster and e) full UUP membership of the Tory parliamentary party. The Labour/SDLP relationship possesses none of these features.
“Shared political purpose”? Oh, you mean like Labour has a shared political purpose with the German SPD? That’s the kind of relationship we’re talking about here.
Give it up, Antifrank. You may have honestly thought you were on solid ground when this exchange started, but you know better now.
66,did brown support it tim
66 starting with you Tim
59 soprry Mike - you posted before I submitted
62
For sure Lily. easy to be wise after the event, and how many people have died as a result of said “decision”?
62 Lilly Allen
Short had no reason to be generous to him today, so he is confident of being exonerated.
I get a bit tired and emotional at this time of the evening. It makes me slow to understand the logic processes of the more intellectual posters.
Could you explain your reasoning on this one. I’m a little baffled to be honest.
56. Wibbler.
Shame they didn’t ask any questions relating to the main argument against assisted suicide.
69 - Yep.
And the Lib Dems.
Put em all on the stand.
64 Christina, it is a very good read, in diary format.
Mr Mullin gives a “Cast List” at the start and it surprised me that Mr Brown isn’t mentioned. However, the book is peppered with little anecdotes in which Mr Brown is the key player, but always offstage so to speak.
70 - I presume you think we took the wrong side in Iraq and should’ve been fighting Americans.
Really agree with Mike L on the last thread - the TV ratio of “what X said” to “what do we make of what X said” is ridiculous, and 2:1 would be appropriate.
The Danish PPB system when I grew up was great (don’t know if it’s still like that) - each party, starting with the smallest, got something like 20 minutes to present their ideas, after which they had a half-hour grilling from a panel of journalists. Gave them a fasir shot at coherent presentation AND a proper going over.
59 - I shall say no more on the subject.
Please don’t tell me that Claire Short is doing herself or her cause any favours? She didn’t have the integrity of Robin Cooke and just comes accross as a very bitter woman
Ted. So the first word isn’t ‘honourable’….back to the drawing board
73 Seth, Lilly Logic is a subscription only service…
re 66. The illegal war in Kosovo was, conveniently for Blair and Clinton, declared declared to be legal retrospectively by the UN. I think it’s called victors’ justice.
No such measure has gone through on Iraq.
39.”Channel 4 News trying to imply AShcroft support giving Tories an unfair advantage. I dont seem to recall Labour complaining in 1997 when they had the money pouring in from Lord Sainsbury and chums.”
Easterross, haven’t the Unions being doing this for years without anyone raising an eyebrow? But stick the name Lord Ashcroft and targeting into the story, and every leftie journalists is looking for monsters under the bed.
Got your email. Thanks.
Clare Short lost all credibility the day that she stayed on while Robin Cook quit.
Now if Robin had still been alive to give evidence to the inquiry… the inquiry would probably never have been called
75,fcuking hell,a serial illegal war hawk,that’s our gordon.
79 The antifrank with an appendix wouldn’t have given up so meekly…
80 For the first time we are in agreement.
Claire Short is only interested in puffing herself - her repeated threats to resign that failed to materialise until it was all over damned her in my eyes.
Robin Cook was no saint but he sacrificed his position for what he believed.
Y’know I’ve been Googling about, trying to find a statement from Cameron along the lines of, ‘The Tory Party should never ever supported the Iraq war and IDS was a total arse for doing so’ so far no joy.
George Osborne bore! surely not.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/douglasmurray/100024761/george-osbornes-speeches-are-turning-him-into-a-world-class-bore/
86 - I think that’s called counselling and procuring!
80
82 - How was it “declared legal”?
The nearest a senior British politician has got to appearing in a war crimes trial was Douglas Hurd, as the Bosnian Govt considered demanding he appear at the trial of Milosevic.
72. Maggie Thatcher Fan: “…how many people have died as a result of said “decision”?”
And how many lives have been saved?
39 Easterross, in the recently published Inside Out by Peter Watt, he says very clearly that none of his colleagues in the Labour party were interested in where the money came from.
They were very keen on spending it though. It was only to stave off bankruptcy (when the bankers effectively took charge) that they started getting into things like budgets etc.
88,coldstone,nick clegg a calamity surely not
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PjLfTMD_zTw
10. Jon C
“Whilst perfectly understandable that Blair’s actions should provoke strong feelings, he shouldn’t face charges if only because the chances of conviction would be zero”
Professor Bill Bowring who plans to bring a war crimes prosecution against Blair clearly thinks the chances of conviction are greater than this. Also “the ICC’s chief prosecutor has said he could envisage a situation in which Mr Blair could find himself in the dock”
This was reported in The Mail on Sunday on 31 January 2009. I have hard copy but have not yet found a link.
Iain Dale - Spill!
“Danny Finkelstein is being a tease. This is what he wrote earlier.
The usually sage James Forsyth covers Peter Mandelson’s press conference and provides the following judgment:
One thing that was noticeable about Mandleson today is just how much he is enjoying himself at the moment.
Given all that I have heard, I would be surprised if that were indeed the case.
Come on Danny. Spill.”
80 Roger
Agreed. A consensus!
It must be the turquoise.
94 johnno !!!!
*CLAPS*
I’ve never seen that before - priceless!
*off to blog it*
92 Gabble, I guess you believe “regime change” is ok however illegal it might be.
80 After the car test she mixed up her french connection and ended with Dutch insurance then after taking a heading from Charles got a Brazilian confused.
95 - Bowring wants war crimes trials over Kosovo as well.
Form a queue!
98, really surprised you never saw it. I think that’s the interview where Clegg backs Trident, although now he thinks it’s unnecessary as there’s no Cold War….. unlike a few years ago. Twonk.
Off topic.
What the hell is the obsession with paying ludicrous sums of money for a bloke (or a woman) to take flipping pictures at a wedding?
The quotes I’ve got are about the same price as the potential honeymoon!!!!!
I’m putting my foot down (if ‘er indoors lets me).
99 - You are out canvassing for a Party that believes the Iraq War was legal and justified.
What do you like about the warmongering war criminal David Cameron so much that you are so keen to get him into No.10?
Well the Telegraph liked Georgie porgie’s performance today:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/election-2010/7140854/George-Osborne-offers-a-route-out-of-the-economic-morass.html
98.Plato, classic moment in that little contest.
103 David Roe
Surely Hello! should be paying you for the privilege.
95. Jon C
“Professor to launch Nuremberg war crimes prosecution”
The link:-
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1247407/Chilcot-War-Inquiry-Professor-launch-Nuremberg-war-crimes-prosecution-Blair.html
99. Maggie Thatcher Fan
You’d be a severe disappointment to your namegiver.
Well except for the senile old Dinosaur Heffer:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/simonheffer/7140953/The-only-economic-advice-the-Tories-need—cut-spending.html
45- a very good book, although I think his best are the Imperium and Lustrum. But then again Archangel is fantastic, and Fatherland is rather good.
Claire Short could have acted with dignity and courage, standing up for something she believed in or she could have saved her career in the government. Instead she managed to look weak and foolish while also losing her job. A bravura performance.
101. When are the Vietcong taking their turn?
On MPs’ expenses, A View from the Foothills records the first mention of the FoI impact being on 1st May 2002, at a meeting of the parliamentary committee.
It’s quite funny, I think:
… by January 2005 MPs’ expenses will be subject to public scrutiny, retrospectively. Goodness knows what mayhem that will cause. “We’re in a jam,” said Robin Cook. “Few members have yet tumbled to the juggernaut heading their way.” He said he had been advised that we could probably get away with publishing headline figures and it would be advisable to start publishing a year before the deadline so that any fuss would have died down come the general election. It was agreed not to minute the discussion.
112 - Don’t forget the Vietnamese who removed Pol Pot.
War Criminals!
On-topic, good, shame it’s not more than 37%, but having said that not remotely interested in some Belgian kangaroo court or any other foreign court having any kind of jurisdiction at all in this country. Should be a mechanism in this country for trying PMs who pull stunts like Blair did over Iraq and then a double helping for the lack of “duty of care” for the occupation.
Maybe i dreamt this but i have a vague recollection of seeing them all on the parliament channel after passing a law about “corporate manslaughter” and how smug they all looked. That law should apply to them.
imo
Off-topic, quote form Alice in Wonderland on Guido just perfect for the current phony war vis a vis the deficit.
http://order-order.com/2010/02/02/through-the-looking-glass-economics/#comments
Alice laughed. “There’s no use trying,” she said: “one can’t believe impossible things.” “I daresay you haven’t had much practice,” said the Queen. “When I was your age, I always did it for half-an-hour a day. Why, sometimes I’ve believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast.”
That could be McDoom’s motto.
calamity clegg part two,
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xwcBnZ9vjAs&feature=PlayList&p=202680B52D5B6E08&playnext=1&playnext_from=PL&index=61
Watching cleggy here,confused,I am
wibble wobble
Credit to the Tories for one thing: they are displaying a charmingly original approach to political choreography. The traditional sequence for the U-turn is to promise one thing before the election, only to backtrack afterwards. Call it the Westminster two-step. But here comes David Cameron, always impatient with the old ways of doing business, to speed up the process. He’s shown that you can execute a full flip-flop months before, rather than after, polling day. Why wait to be in government when you can U-turn right now?
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/feb/02/david-cameron-conservatives-wobble
Haven’t seen Robinson’s report from my sick bed but weren’t ConHome asking people to complain about the BBC’s anti Tory bias.
I assume you’ve all done just that before the 10 o’clock comes on.
As a child [not that young] I remember the 6 o’clock news running a report [mistakenly] with a picture of my father next to it when the story had nothing to do with him. I told him when he got home from work. He rang the BBC 10 mins before the 9 o’clock news.
They pulled the report.
Tories! You do complaining, quite well. Get on with it.
A repeat post from the January 19 night shift, when exploring the life and works of Don Felipe Fernández-Armesto.
Here he is on Kosovo and genocide:
I don’t believe there was any attempted genocide in Kosovo [...], ‘despite what ministers and the media said. What happened was that two communities inflicted massacres and atrocities on each other, without the conscious, planned intention of exterminating an entire people as the Nazis did’. As for NATO’s ‘abuse of language’, Fernández-Armesto says we shouldn’t be surprised: ‘NATO is a political organisation, a highly self-interested one, which has got a big problem justifying itself in the post-Cold War era, so it falls back on the abuse of rhetoric.’
[...]
He recognises that ‘clapped-out organisations like New Labour’ often have to ‘fall back on the abuse of language and rhetoric to justify their aims’, pointing out that during the Kosovo conflict ‘Robin Cook used the word “genocide” six times in a five-minute BBC interview, following the principle from the Scam-man’s Handbook: if you repeat nonsense often enough, people will believe it’.
Oh dear, I think I am about to be tippexed off tim’s Christmas Card list.
103.Good luck!
I was determined not to spend two hours of my wedding day with a photographer. Made up a list of what I wanted, gave it to my brother and let him sort it out in true military style. He had everyone lined up ready so the photo’s took no time at all.
David, its your day, decide what you want and go with it. Be creative, and look for someone reliable who will give you the package you want.
110 Heffo seems to be losing it at a steeply accelerating rate. The girlish spite with which he accuses Mandelson of girlish spite is a must-see, and on a day when Osborne has invited us to dip him in chocolate and feed him to the Lesb1ans if he loses the country’s AAA rating it seems a bit dense to accuse Osborne of not understanding the importance of keeping the country’s AAA rating.
On topic, could A.N.Other somewhere in Europe produce a European Arrest Warrant over this?
Seth. So it’s me you and the Telegraph
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/concoughlin/100024781/clare-short-not-tony-blair-is-to-blame-for-the-iraq-fiasco/
98 Mr Dancer - me too! Still, it’s even more amusing now given who won
The faces Clegg pulls are hilarious -
says it all 
“One Downing Street official is already licking his lips at the prospect of branding the Tories’ marriage proposal the John Terry tax break”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/feb/02/david-cameron-conservatives-wobble
Interesting piece from Simon Jenkins
An odious view, indeed. But I’m with Pope Benedict on this one
The church is its own worst enemy. It does not need Harman and her puritanical enforcers to grant its prejudice the oxygen of intolerance.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/belief/2010/feb/02/pope-benedict-harman-equalities-bill
My only question is if this is such wrong legislation then why does Brown not stop it?
119 - Well of course Felipe Fernandez-Armesto is right. It’s only the relentless propaganda of a movement that is fuelled on blood and testosterone that could begin to argue otherwise. Our poor troops get sent blundering around the world into feuds that their political masters (funny how they’re always masters) certainly don’t understand.
As a result, in Kosovo, we end up allying ourselves with gun-running, drug-smuggling, people-trafficking gangsters in order to destabilise an entire region.
Butterfield has just scored a hat trick for Crystal Palace in the FA Cup against Wolves. Not scored for his team in a year and tonight he scores three in six minutes!
Villa will meet Palace in the next round.
120 - I’m thinking of getting a friend who takes occasional golf club pics to take the ‘formal’ shots and asking for copies of everyone attending’s pics to make an album from.
I’m not skimping on the venue or food but photos… MEH!
Bloody hell. There’s gonna be no Premier League teams left in the FA Cup soon!
77 Tim without a second resolution we should not have been there at all. I have always opposed Tory party policy on Iraq. Sadaam was an evil man but he was contained and frankly I think we had more interest in Zimbabwe and more justification for going in there before Iraq.
‘The John Terry Tax Break’ has Alastaire Campbell written all over it.
Nice one!
125 Excellent
then when he’s done it we’ll all pull out our pictures of members of the government queueing up to shake his hand. What are the odds on Gordon congratulating him on being Dad of the year ?
129 Put cheap cameras on all the guest tables and ask each table to take at least 10 shot of them and you.
129 David Roe.. fwiw..dont, you will regret it. go for quality not mates pics
How many Billions?
Somehow, in her second response, Miss Eagle managed to turn the argument on its head and accuse the Tories of some ‘absolute disgrace’. I did not follow her argument because I was enjoying her itchy discomfort too much.
With that she sat down, her face matching her purple polo-neck jumper. At which point she turned to her left, glared at the civil servants in their box, and mouthed a couple of words which, I am pretty sure, started with the letter F.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1247801/Angela-Eagles-face-matched-purple-polo-neck.html
tim 101 “Bowring wants war crimes trials over Kosovo as well”.
I do not know if what you say is true or not but don’t underestimate Bowring. He is a senior practising English barrister and has had a lot of experience in the European Court of Human Rights.
Also don’t ignore the fact the International Criminal Court’s Chief Prosecutor has said “he could envisage a situation in which Mr Blair could find himself in the dock”(see 108 above)
Put cheap cameras on all the guest tables and ask each table to take at least 10 shot of them and you.
by SallyC February 2nd, 2010 at 9:22 pm
That’s a
cheapScottish solution I have seen used before131 Easterross
Yes I always preferred the old days when Iraq and Iran were just too worried about each other to bother the rest of the world.
Dez O’Connor, Terry Wogan, John Terry….
All very playground.
Voting reform? Here’s Matt:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/matt/
125 – Gobble – Well it must be nice for you to know there are people in this world as vacuous as you are
Argentina Summons U.K. Envoy Over Falklands Drilling:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=aWycKKJmlWy0
and
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/02/02/139631/send-for-the-task-force/
Alex Salmond woos opposition to back his budget
Alex Salmond’s £35 billion spending plans for the next year look likely to be approved after he embarked on a last-minute wooing of the opposition parties.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/scotland/7140229/Alex-Salmond-woos-opposition-to-back-his-budget.html
it’s about time the snp poster’s gave the torie party more respect or else
144 So - if the other parties don’t come to Alex’s assistance, isn’t that a £35 billion spending cut achieved right there?
145
125: ‘http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/feb/02/david-cameron-conservatives-wobble’
Wow, Freedland is on fire! marriage tax, Hug-a-hoodie, shoes in the limo, Lord Ashcroft, ‘Vote blue, go green’, prison ships, Zac Goldsmith, Northern Ireland (and the yanks disquieted and planning to step in), Dave related to stockbrokers, Tory MPs backgrounds in the City, Tories getting an easy ride from the press. All in a single article. It’s a lovely, jubbly, bubble Labour orgasmatron!
The Daily Rant really do like to make their Gordo photos show his best side,
http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2010/02/02/article-0-0820FC0D000005DC-631_468×344.jpg
127 antifrank
I am probably not as opposed to military intervention as you are.
What I hate is political deception, in which I would include your “feuds that [intervening] political masters don’t understand”.
I feel lucky that my intolerance seems to be a national trait. It applies as much to Thatcher and the Belgrano as to Blair in Iraq, although of course to very differing degrees. The Chilcot Inquiry won’t do Blair for entering into an illegal war, but for misrepresenting his justifications and arguments for war and for mismanaging its consequences.
As to the UN, I consider it to be an imperfect organisation. It should guide rather than bind its participants. If we truly wanted an enforceable International Law to apply to all conflicts then the treaties underlying the UNSC need revision.
145 Mark I like my frozen council tax thanks
Eck rools ok (well while he keeps council tax frozen)
144. Yup
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/briantaylor/2010/02/budget_movement.html
PaddyPower
Will a referendum on Electoral Reform take place by 2014?
* 2/5 No
* 7/4 Yes
Will a referendum on Electoral Reform be passed?
* 2/5 Yes
* 7/4 No
143. jointochoose.
That means that Poorie Poor will be here soon, no doubt.
148,so doe’s the daily mail,
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1247998/Gordon-Brown-insists-right-let-deficit-balloon-record-levels.html
149 - I’m not opposed to military intervention in the right cases. Neither Kosovo nor Iraq were the right cases.
There need to be stringent tests applied before we intervene. Instead, we have a mishmash of personal vendettas, bloodlust and an updated version of the white man’s burden.
tim 114 - “Don’t forget the Vietnamese who removed Pol Pot.
War Criminals!”
But they were provoked by the Cambodian’s on many occasions - many raids across the border and the Cambodians launched attacks on the Vietnamese islands of Phu Quoc and Tho Chu.
144 It’s about time the tory leader grew a pair like Salmond.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1247753/City-minister-Lord-Myners-admits-tax-rate-prompted-quit-Britain.html
151. From the comments
Brownedov wrote:
Regardless of one’s opinion of Duff Gordon’s damascene conversion to electoral reform after nearly 27 years as an MP bitterly opposed to any such thing, one has to admire his courage in this section of today’s Speech on transforming politics:
“Any change will not be for the forthcoming election. But we are agreed there should be a referendum at a date in the near future, because any decision on something as fundamental as electoral reform must not be the subject of an executive decision endorsed by parliament but rather a question for the British people in a referendum. I will argue and campaign for such a change.”
How odd that no mention of distraction from the task in hand was made.
Noting that Viceroy Murphy has made no such promise about his ‘We will transform Scottish politics’ white paper, which promises fundamental tax reform to the Scottish people, I hope that in the next HoC Scotland questions scheduled for Wednesday 24 February, some Scottish MP asks him to confirm that a Scottish referendum will be needed to confirm this “enormously radical” change and suggests 30 November 2010 as a good day to hold it.
157 88
Moobs are more of an older man thing.
132. No doubt Gordon will send JT another ‘Dear John’ letter:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/blog/2008/may/26/gordonbrownandjohnterrypm
Perhaps they will even appear together again:
http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3045/3100838480_f3fd55a6e4_o.jpg
129.David, that is a very good idea. Got a friend who has made photography his hobby for 20 years, and I can only admire his work throughout their house. A friend of his asked him to do their wedding photo’s, he didn’t disappoint and they were amazing.
159. because any decision on something as fundamental as electoral reform must not be the subject of an executive decision endorsed by parliament but rather a question for the British people in a referendum
It didn’t stop him railroading Lisbon through did it? The f*cking lying hypocrite!
161 - I’d have thought that Boris and Terry could swap a few stories.
Re. 149, IMHO the best outcome of Chilcott is to act as a brake on future military adventures. There may be “good” interventions that are missing as a result, but IMHO we undertake too much & the world is too complex. We can’t afford it either.
Just completed AR poll with voting intention [two parts - 1 support 1 available candidate] and a load of questions about party perceptions.
I’ve gotta say, the phrasing of the questions helped me to provide much more accurate answers than I’ve ever given to YouGov…
Tories send message out from Osborne
“Today the Conservative Party has set out a new model of economic growth, a model very different from the one pursued by Gordon Brown.
It sets out our plans for a private sector recovery driven by business investment and exports, instead of consumer borrowing and government debt.
For the first time ever, we are also setting out eight benchmarks - the Benchmarks for Britain - against which we are happy for the next Conservative Government to be judged.
Achieving them over the next Parliament would mean we have put Britain back on her feet and are building a new British economic model, very different from the debt driven model of the past.
At the end of the Parliament, you will be able to use these benchmarks to hold your government to account over whether our economy is more stable, more balanced and more competitive.
We’ve set them out in detail on our website so you can see exactly what we’re proposing. Then, as you have already done with David on our NHS and education policies, you can ask me any question about our plans for economic growth.
You can also vote on any of the questions that have been submitted, so that next week I’ll be able to answer the most popular questions in a live webcast…ask your question here…”
http://www.conservatives.com/draftmanifesto/
105 - From the link
” It is a credible and persuasive approach that gives the Tories a platform from which to mount a sustained pre-election onslaught on the discredited Government that landed us in this mess.”
5 more years!! no chance
136.ScottP, thanks, Quentin Letts at his best.
“Squeaker Bercow did not accept this excuse. ‘The House was not aware of that,’ he said. ‘I know the minister will offer an answer.’ In other words: you’re standing at the despatch box, honey. You cough up some sort of reply.
It was actually pretty good of Miss Eagle to sacrifice herself. The Secretary of State, Yvette Cooper, was the senior officer on deck. She should really have offered to accept this fizzing hand grenade. Not one to lead from the front, Yvette.
Miss Eagle said that the figure for our national pensions liability was ‘close to £600billion, off the top of my head’.
I loved that ‘off the top of my head’ bit in relation to billions of pounds. Doesn’t it just sum up the attitude of today’s politicians to public spending? Ooooh, a few hundred billion here and there - who’s counting?
Mr Heathcoat-Amory claimed that the figure was, in fact, a trillion pounds - that is, a thousand billion. Do please sit down if you are trying to envisage that many noughts.”
164. I’d bet Gordo’s mate Nigel Griffiths could give JT some top tips too?
http://www.newsoftheworld.co.uk/news/230378/Gordon-Browns-pal-Nigel-Griffiths-cheats-on-wife-with-brunette-on-Remembrance-Day-in-House-of-Commons.html
or perhaps ‘Two shags’?
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/article47145.ece
Or even Chunky Blunky
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-314098/Blunkett-silent-affair.html
132. Labour would be extremely stupid to drag john terry into politics. It will back fire horribly. Its one thing for the media to report whats happend, but for politians to use it would be disasterous.
David Roe … have you seen these wedding pics? £1450:
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/UK-News/Bride-And-Gloom-Worlds-Worst-Wedding-Pictures/Media-Gallery/200910115400546?lpos=UK_News_Third_Picture_Gallery_Teaser_Region____4&lid=GALLERY_15400546_Bride_And_Gloom%3A_Worlds_Worst_Wedding_Pictures
140.SallyC, I see that Iain Martin also picked up on Mandelson’s very ill judged attack on Terry Wogan too. I suspect this one will come back to bite him.
Mandelson attacks Sir Terry Wogan. Commits Grade-A Political Error
171 even “disastrous”….
17 S&S As things stand, I think the GoP will pick up 8 seats in the Senate, leaving it 50-2-48. I’m really hoping against hope that Boxer will fall and that the GoP will pick up both Obama and Biden’s former seats. How delicious that irony would be!
Seth O Logue. My host in Morocco has promised that his wife will cook me a pastilla.
One for Plato, Phil Jones does irony..
“We are facing more and more public scrutiny, and any future work we do is going to have much greater scrutiny by our peers and by the public.”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/norfolk/8494497.stm
Aaaaaaaaaaaaaah a spanking good story in the Daily Rant!!!!
Goodnight all!!
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1247988/University-registrar-offered-forged-degrees-women-let-spank-pain-research.html
It appears Kraft have told Lord Foy to fcuk off when he demanded a reassurance that Cadbury will be run from UK
Why no Populus?
172 - Ouch! That’s not good.
178 - Well, they would, wouldn’t they?
More on Brown’s enabling law (it enables him to make appointees to Parliament)
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2010/feb/02/brown-promises-law-voting-reform
That dreadful photo reminded me of this:
http://tinyurl.com/yft6vr4
177. He claimed it was for a’pain management study’ classic
Evans - Pritchard on Greece (again)
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/7140233/Greece-rattled-by-hidden-debt-controversy.html
177 MTF
“James Ward, prosecuting, said his wife’s ethnic origin satisfied Woodgett’s particular sexual interest.
‘He did not want Kah for sex, but to indulge his spanking fetish with her because she had a black bottom,’ he said
The marriage broke down, but the couple remained friends and discussed…
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1247988/University-registrar-offered-forged-degrees-women-let-spank-pain-research.html#ixzz0eQ4YkQuc
175- Well, anything seems possible now. My reluctance to believe that the Dems would lose New Jersey back in November, and also the Massachusetts Senate seat last month, involved a belief that the Dems simply couldn’t fall so far, so fast. I had indeed anticipated the trajectory, but not the slope of that trajectory. My early predictions of GOP gains of 25 House seats and 2 Senate seats no longer resemble wild-eyed optimism, but rather nervous pessimism.
Hopeful Democrats (and cautious Republicans) repeatedly note that just as much as changed since Obama’s election, much can still change before this November. This is true, but the fundamentals that have brought the Dems to where they are today from the lofty heights of a year ago are still there: Democratic control of all levers of government, insoluble conflict between party moderates who fear for their re-election and party liberals who want to accomplish big things before the window of opportunity closes, stubborn unemployment, angry conservatives, disappointed moderates, and demoralized liberals. The odds of things improving for the Dems before November thus seem much less than the odds they will worsen. Your prediction seems more and more plausible every day, as polls show endangered Democratic incumbents becoming dead meat (e.g., Dodd, Reid, Lincoln), while safe Democratic incumbents become endangered (e.g., Bayh, Feingold, Murray). I’ve never seen anything like it. Even 1994 wasn’t like this.
Is Gordon around for PMQ’s tomorrow?
186 - Probably depends what the headline look like! I’m sure if required we may find that NI discussions required his super hero / international statesman of the year powers yet again.
173. Christina. Not wise of Mandy to alienate the TOGs.
176
Apparently 27,000 prisoners are getting new tvs. Alright for for some.
The Liberal Democrat home affairs spokesman, Chris Huhne, described the measure as “a deathbed conversion and a baby step towards proportional voting”, but said his party would vote for it.
front pages so far,
http://www.politicshome.com/uk/article/5299/front_pages_wednesday_3rd_february.html
Brown In The Guardian (with comments):
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/feb/02/vote-to-give-politics-back-brown?showallcomments=true#end-of-comments
Play nice with the nasty man now won’t you?
A serious WTF moment
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/lawandorder/7139734/Over-27000-televisions-bought-for-prisoners-in-the-past-two-years.html
“Maria Eagle, the Justice Minister, said HM Prison Service purchased 14,814 in-cell televisions in 2007-08 and a further 12,238 in 2008-09 - enough for almost a third of the 83,378 inmates in England and Wales.”
Lets not forget that 4000 prisoners have satellite tv.
tough on crime? You decide
190 - Thats a lot of transvestites.
190 WTF? TVs last for 10yrs plus these days at least?!?
175 TimT
That’s always the best way to enjoy local food!
On one of my first visits to Russia in the mid 1980s, I was entertained at the home of my Ukrainian hosts to an 11 course meal of local delicacies, the most memorable of which was home cured sturgeon. It was still very much Soviet Russia, where the big hotels offered a menu of a thousand dishes which the waiter then narrowed down to “fish or meat”. The fish was often smoked sturgeon but tasted nothing like the home prepared version. I expect you are in for a real treat with your home made pastilla!
If you are wondering about the 11 courses (and I am not even going to mention the drinking), the endurance test was mitigated by a walk after the sixth course. We visited the local party bookshop. I was bought a miniature red book of the membership rules of the CPSU and a Young Pioneers tie, both of which I still possess today.
Business travel is always best when we take a walk on the wild side!
185 S&S Yes. The message does not seem to have sunk in at the WH yet, and democratic congressional candidates will be painted as much with the Obama label as GoPers were the Bush label last time around. How does the One keep a straight face saying that we need to tackle the deficit and national debt while proposing the largest deficit budget ever with projections of $1trillion + deficits for each of the next ten years? Or when he says we need bipartisanship but it’s all the Republicans’ fault? Or when he says Washington is the problem, so we should give Washington even more powers? But the best has to be ‘I hear you, but you haven’t heard me’ to the electorate.
But the old control freak can’t change the tendencies of a lifetime:
Labour MPs criticise plan to drop parliamentary reform proposals
Gordon Brown’s credentials as constitutional reformer attacked by some of his most senior backbench MPs
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2010/feb/02/labour-mps-parliamentary-reform-proposals<
193 byline of Guardian article: Grodon Brown
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/feb/02/vote-to-give-politics-back-brown?showallcomments=true#end-of-comments
S&S Of course, I’ve got my numbers wrong at 175. It should be 49-2-49
More from the Telegraph:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/election-2010/7141544/George-Osborne-Well-give-savers-a-better-deal.html
190. Guess that might make a difference of around 0.1% to the GDP in a quarter. Where they perhaps ordered and paid for in December?
But thankfully, there was a photographer on hand for this special day:
http://www.rugbynetwork.net/main/s105/st80039.htm
Has anyone considered what the political implication of Short quitting on the day same as Cook would have been … only I imagine her resignation speech wouldn’t have been as measured or polite as his.
197 My parents loved telling me about their trip across Russia in the late 60s early 70s in a a Mini Cooper S.
They had their car air-lifted across the Channel and drove several thousand miles round trip with hundreds of biros and Levis as currency.
It was an amazing and almost unbelievable tale back in the 80s when I was a teenager. Nowadays, it’s common knowledge how things worked back then.
197 Seth. Your story reminds me of my first trip to Aden back in 1984, when the North and South were still separate. There was a small fish restaurant down on the docks in Crater owned and run by a guy who must have been one of the unluckiest guys in the world - he was a Vietnamese boat person who had managed to escape the horrors of communist Vietnam to end up in a Hong Kong detention camp for a couple of years before being ‘resettled’ in PDRY!
Anyway, I ordered a green salad to go with my fish. He apologized that that salad was of the list for the day. I had another look at the menu, asked for a potato salad. Not available. And so it went down the list. Finally, I asked “What salad do you have?” “I have a Russian salad.” “And what is in a Russian salad?” “No lettuce, no tomato, no onion, no potato, no …” True story.
185- S and S
I tend to agree, even if the SOTU speech gave Obama a mini-bounce, especially in approval by Democrats (at least in Rasmussen).
As of today, I would say:
ND, DE, AK Sure pick-ups
NV very probable
CO, PN probable
IL, NY (Gillibrand) too close to call
The main problem of Dems is that with a widening field they will have to use their resources everywhere… (they could avoid spending 500k for Nelson as they did recently, though…)
Wil they even bother to spend anything in ND and DE?
198- Obama’s own Democratic congressional delegation doesn’t seem to respect him or take him seriously anymore. It’s really incredible, as we stand today just one year into the Obama administration. And as you describe, Obama is also on the verge of becoming widely caricatured and perceived as a guy whose words bear little resemblance to his deeds, and acting as if he’s the only guy in the room who doesn’t know that.
As things are trending now, I suppose there is a fair chance the GOP will retake the House, although the Senate still seems a mighty reach. But I may find myself in the peculiar position, come November, of cheering for Democrats in certain key House and Senate races, since I feel the ideal scenario for Republicans going into 2012 would be for the Dems to maintain marginal (very marginal) control of both the House and Senate in 2010 (let’s say, a 50-48-2 Democratic Senate majority and a 225-210 Democratic House majority).
199 jsfl that link is broken
150. Easterross, And he froze it deliberately. Long may it continue.
Is this the new Gordon Brown. Invites the Pope to Britain and then tells them there’s no money in the Government budget for it!
“We are now in a situation where we don’t know who’s paying for it,” says an official of the Roman Catholic church. “It’s not in the Government Budget and is probably going to cost the Church about £3million to £6million
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/religion/7138643/Gordon-Browns-invite-to-Pope-Benedict-XVI-leaves-Church-anxious-about-costs.html
Watford!!!!!!!!!!
42
211 My Council tax is frozen too cos i live in a Tory Borough!!!
210. Try that one
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2010/feb/02/labour-mps-parliamentary-reform-proposals
209 S&S I like your numbers, although the 49-49-2 has its appeal too.
206 Plato, I had a family friend who used to drive an articulated lorry across Europe in the seventies, through the Iron Curtain countries. He used to find that old Littlewoods and Gratton catalogues would get him…well, all manner of favours. They used to copy designs for making clothes from the pictures - and they were thought the height of fashion.
He is probably single-handedly responsible for a generation of Hungarians wearing their oh-so-cool tank-tops!
Newsnight doing a big feature on climate change. On which subject, Tom Harris has a good blog on Lucas and the Greens:
http://www.tomharris.org.uk/2010/02/02/caroline-lucas-the-sceptics-ally/
212 Gordon can share with the Pope his student trick of turning up with empty bottles and a brick in a carrier bag - “I brought the communion wine…ooh, is that cider?”
Newsnight doing a big feature on climate change. On which subject, Tom Harris has a good blog on Lucas and the Greens:
http://tinyurl.com/linkharrisblog
A prison gets a bad report over the comfort of its vans taking prisoners to court…
http://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/scotsol/homepage/news/2836423/Prisoners-get-a-rough-ride-to-court-according-to-prison-report.html
I hope they all got a new telly to make up for the bumpy ride.
Man from the IPCC getting his ass handed to him on Newsnight
208- I was also shocked to see the DNC spending half a million on ads for Ben Nelson, given that he doesn’t face the voters again for three years. They’re going to need every dollar come November but don’t seem to realize they don’t have the luxury of wasting money today on distant future elections. If the Dems have their act together, they won’t waste one thin dime in North Dakota, but they may reasonably test the waters a bit with some ads in Delaware if they can find a decent candidate. The dangerous thing for them is that they may not accept the reality of their situation and end up spending most of their money on lost cause races while ignoring serious threats to previously safe seats.
The theory is now sometimes floated that the Dems at least have the advantage of seeing this electoral disaster coming, unlike in 1994 when they were taken by surprise late in the campaign. This works both ways, though, particularly on the fundraising front. If the shifting sands give the GOP the opportunity to turn the tables in fundraising, the Dems could find themselves in an even tougher fight come November than they currently anticipate.
The question must be what and when will be the next Tory economic policy to go arse up.
The probability of that happening in the next few days is on the same par as the next ARS showing the Tories at 16% in front. No matter what happens…both will always happen.
http://redrag1.blogspot.com/
214 thanks jsfl
Re 213. Now there’s an interesting consideration in what is going to be happening in March / April /May
On one side you will have Labour putting through tax increases and on the other hand you will have Conservative councils across the country pushing through council tax freezes and council tax cuts.
tim can be safely ignored with all his rantings on this matter. He has not yet defined who decides whether it’s right to invade a foreign country?
Basically tim’s world view is if you don’t like your neighbours (and you’re the sole judge of this) then invade them. And before you give your usual stock response then yes Kosovo was wrong, Sierra Leone was wrong.
Oh and those lucky, lucky Iraqis. Only 41 slaughtered yesterday and 106 maimed and injured. I wish somebody could invade us and leave us with such a wonderful level of peace and security.
What should cameron go on at pmqs tomorrow? Personally I think he should trap brown on the AAA rating. Something along the lines of ‘will the pm today copy to our commitment to protecting the UK’s AAA, by promising to take all necessary action in order to protect it’.
If brown says yes, then cameron will be able to say ‘all necessary action would mean either tax rises or spending cuts in 2010. Given he wont cut in 2010, is he saying he will raise taxes even more?
If brown says no (which he prob will!) then cameron will be able to attack him over future higher interest rates and higher mortage repayments.
tim = wigan
Re 222
“We keep the Red Rag flying high
Coz Labour LIES, yes Labour LIES
Oh Labour Lies they love to LIE
We keep the Red Rag flying high
Coz just like sh*t it attracts the flies”
206 Plato
It would indeed have been a fabulous trip. A Polish writer (no I can’t remember his name!) did a similar trip and wrote about his experiences with the memorable line: “In a country where winter temperatures are below -30°C, hospitality is not so much a national trait as a matter of survival”. The Russians (and other Soviet nationalities) are wonderful hosts and in the sixties the arrival of a British couple in a Mini Cooper would have been greeted as travelling Tsars!
In the late 1980s, Russia ran out of tobacco and the currency for a few months became packets of cigarettes. A packet of 20 Marlboro could hire you a car and driver for a day. At other times the best currency were transparent biros bought in Cyprus with bikini clad ladies which undressed at the push of the button. They were particularly useful for paying the ‘tax’ to the traffic Militsia which were stationed at every junction. And we moan about speeding cameras!
224 My ‘condipendent’ council is putting through an inflation busting rise.
Leader of council, so called independent, sat on the selection panel for choosing Tory MP candidate. Number of other independents are card carrying Tories.
Who is the Douglas Carswell who’s just been making an arse of himself talking about AV?
230 You’ll feel at home then coz that would be just like a Labour council then……..
Cameron should go on this deeply cynical constitutional stuff, that Newsnight are ripping apart.
152 RodC - Will a referendum on Electoral Reform take place by 2014? 2/5 No
Free money, but you need to tie your stake up for 4 years, so not worth it for a 40% return.
207 TimT
Ah “Russian Salad”! Available for breakfast, lunch and dinner in all the finest establishments!
There always are compensations though. The pomegranate juice that was always served for breakfast with real free range eggs and rye bread. All as good or better than anything you could get in the West.
Tory vote about to go down - Pickles on Newsnight
Serious question, though I don’t expect to get a serious reply.
George Bush, I think we can agree was the instigator of the Iraq war, with TB his main supporter.
We have this terrific outcry over TB’s part in the war, with a vociferous minority wanting nothing less than for TB to be hanged for war crimes.Yet, to the best of my knowledge there is little outcry over Bush’s part in all this, certainly not in the USA.
Can someone tell me why TB is being singled out, yet the main man’s part is virtually ignored, both in his home country and here.
Advocate of AV is Gordon and now Hain. Stillborn.
Sun leader makes good reading for GO.
http://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/scotsol/homepage/news/sun_says/1460642/The-Scottish-Sun-Says.html
Eric Pickles won’t be a vote winner for Tories during this campaign
Chris Huhne being his usual shouty tw@ttish self….
240 its cos he’s a tw*t!
Alas, missed the debate on the new LD colour. Iirc turquoise actually was a Liberal colour way back when. But when things were less national a lot of colours were used by parties across the country. It was the colour taken by the National Liberals during the coalition years in the 30s.
Useless bit of trivia for you.
Chris Huhne wants to change the voting system every few years. Latin american tinpot state here we come.
Yes, the way to restore trust in politicians is to get Peter Hain to front the policy. Genius!
Looking at the various links above, looks like Osborne’s speech went down very well (except with Heffer, which is reassuring).
233. aSod
Cameron can’t because he’s bottled his own reform and gone for an alternative centralist approach.
On the subject of election night counting v Friday counting, in 2005 only five British seats were scheduled to count on the Friday:
1. Argyll & Bute
2. Berwick-upon-Tweed
3. Hexham
4. St Ives
5. Skipton & Ripon
171 The problem with bringing John Terry into the campaign is that it assumes most voters are thick, and can only appreciate a political argument once it revolves around John Terry.
That probably holds good for readers of the Mirror, but doesn’t apply universally.
Operation teach the beeb a lesson for being so biased: The Times reports that the Conservatives would make radical changes to the BBC leadership, with its Chairman being the first casualty.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article7012882.ece
notable that Pickles did not confirm the Tories would repeal the referendum…
239 - Sun backs George Osborne. Since it backed the Tories The Sun has lost 600,000 readers and the Tory lead has dropped 8%.
Sell Osborne ….QUICK!
http://redrag1.blogspot.com/
250 - why on earth would Pickles do something as obvious as do exactly what Brown wants him to do? This many years on and you still don’t seem to grasp how Brown’s diseased mind actually works…
221 It’s an astonishing turnaround. There is a chance the Republicans will win the Senate, which means they must win 23 out of 32 seats being contested, something which I suspect no party has done since the Thirties. It is highly likely they’ll win the House.
The Republican have (in theory) done everything wrong after defeat. They have not moved to the centre, and they have offered nothing other than total belligerence to Obama’s administration. But the centre’s moved towards them, and they’re about to take control of Congress.
#237, by valleyboy February 2nd, 2010 at 10:58 pm
Serious question, though I don’t expect to get a serious reply.
George Bush, I think we can agree was the instigator of the Iraq war, with TB his main supporter….
VB, so W was the driver in this adventure and Blair was merely a passenger? No excuse: the passenger is responsible if they know the driver’s behaviour is irresponsible. It appears to be a basis of English Law now. I wonder how long the legislation has been on the books….
251,are you tim in disguise
250 If the Conservatives win, they can repeal any legislation they like. If they don’t, it’s irrelevant.
But it does occur to me, this legislation may not actually disadvantage the Conservatives, as it’s intended to do. In that case, why repeal it?
255 - I always assumed he was wage slave, since I don’t think anyone else gets quite so much masturbatory pleasure out of using George Osborne’s middle name.
255 - That smiling face reminded me of just when the now Sun backed Osborne uttered the words “I am delighted that Lord Stern has agreed has agreed to advise us on the creation of this Green Investment Bank.”
256 if we have it, every seat will be counted on a friday…
251,just imagine the sun backing brown in the coming GE,sun’s readership would have been down to the mirror levels of custom.
re 247 but that situation is unusual historically. Look at the 1979 election coverage again when scores of seats counted on the Friday.
253. Sean Fear
“The Republican have (in theory) done everything wrong after defeat. They have not moved to the centre, and they have offered nothing other than total belligerence to Obama’s administration. But the centre’s moved towards them, and they’re about to take control of Congress.”
Compare and contrast to the CameronOsborne strategy.
253- On the idea that the GOP has done everything wrong, there are a few issues that still concern me heading into the mid-terms, above others: 1) Michael Steele’s stewardship of the RNC has been an unmitigated disaster, which has harmed GOP fundraising efforts and will harm efforts to target races late in the campaign, and 2) the Republicans must maintain solid links to the Tea Party movement and not allow them to become a sort of splinter party; Sarah Palin will be speaking at their upcoming convention, which is a bit of much-needed outreach.
But as for the much-vilified Republican obstructionism, I said before and I’ll say again: it’s the essential ingredient to a comeback. If Obama had seriously pursued a strategy of moderation and peeling off GOP votes in Congress, he’d be much better off today and the GOP would be in a much tougher situation (perhaps even fueling a real third party on the right). The strict partisan course chosen by Obama plus the unpopularity of his policies has put the Republicans in the position they are in today.
Gordon Brown’s conversion to electoral reform is unlikely to do him any good.
The PM’s policy switch looks like an undignified tactical move to create a ‘dividing line’ with the Tories
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/blog/2010/feb/02/gordon-brown-electoral-reform
260 - The Sun to back Brown….more chance of a Tory economic policy lasting more than a few hours these days. I see all the smiley faces…does anyone know how to do a Stern face?
http://redrag1.blogspot.com/
AVE IT’S GUIDE TO AV
Spannerhead-on-the-senior
Count 1
Con 10,000
Lab 10,001
Ave it/LOL 199
Total 20,200. 10,101 needed to win.
Ave its 2nd choices are redistributed thats Con 198 Lab 1
So
Con 10,198
Lab 10,002
Labour =
259,good win tonight
239.David, indeed a very good write up for Osborne. Back in 2007, the SNP made the support of buisness leaders a major positive plank of their campaign.
245.Richard,
I now use Heffer is a guide to the Cameron/Osborne strategy. The more he whinges, the likely their message will resonate with the electorate.
256 With fewer larger constituencies AV might indeed advantage the Conservatives or both Conservative & Labour. In Australia it has tended to keep a two party system in place (counting Liberal & National as one party).
Cameron can decide whether to hold a referendum when he puts through his reform bill. Doubt it will matter much whether he repeals Labour’s attempt to bind its successor then anyway.
I see we have picked up an astro-turfer this evening, with a low traffic blog to plug.
263 S&S Couldn’t agree more on your analysis of the benefits of GoP obstructionism. It’s been the total lack of serious outreach to them by the Democrats that has allowed to Republicans to say, with some justification and obviously a great deal of positive reaction from the electorate, that they are not voting No simply to be obstructionist, but because that is what they believe on the substance of the policies being put forward by the liberal wing of the Democratic Party. In other words, they agree that there are problems that need to be solved, but that those problems would only get worse if Obama’s agenda were followed. This line seems to be gaining considerable resonance.
Got to leave now to try to get home before the impending Blizzard of 2010 Part 2. Chris in Bethesda, I presume that is not such an issue for you…
A council byelection today unusual for a Tuesday
Tandridge DC Surrey Whyteleafe ward LibDem hold
LibDem 444 Con 236 UKIP 99
2008 result LibDem 528 Con 407 Lab 45
7% or so swing from Con to LibDem
Conservative vote slipping everywhere even in leafy Surrey .
Would AV benefit the Tories after their planned 10% reduction of (Labour?!) MP’s?
216.He is probably single-handedly responsible for a generation of Hungarians wearing their oh-so-cool tank-tops!
Those crazy East European fashions has an odd route. I used to live in Poland in the mid 90s and there were loads of charity shops selling crazy 70s clothes, super cheap, sold by the kilo. The old winos who hung around on all the street corners used to look like Huggy Bear style New York pimps
The clothes were originally sent by the west as charity in the 80s but were kept in warehouses by the authorities. I had an Icelandic friend who had a nice line in shipping the funkiest threads back to Reykyavik.
270 - Mr Oracle - still missing from UK Pollingreport I see. Though how a Tory can get banned from such a Tory blog is quite unique.
How is that John McCain presidential celebratory party go….must have been sparsely attended.
248.Sean, I think that if Labour try to use the current John Terry scandal to negatively attack the Tories on their marriage proposals, it will back fire again. And I await the first person to remind us of how this government sought to appear cool by wooing the music/sports world at No10. Cool Britannia anyone? No, this latest scandal has blown up and happened under the New Labour flag. There is something just so desperate and tacky about this type of politiking now, its like they have nothing left to offer accept spin and celebrity gimmicks.
258: ‘That smiling face reminded me of just when the now Sun backed Osborne uttered the words “I am delighted that Lord Stern has agreed has agreed to advise us on the creation of this Green Investment Bank.”’
Lord Stern said: ‘I would be willing to speak to the Conservatives’ advisory group about their ideas for a Green Investment Bank’
Ozzy said: ‘Lord Stern has agreed to advise us on the creation of this Green Investment Bank’
I can’t see why those remarks are in any way incompatible. As ever, when Labour has a ‘good’ week, its supporters get carried away, start trying to score silly points on other matters and spoil it for themselves. (And that includes everyone from Jonathan Freedland to our young friend here.)
272,the only votes that matter are at the GE.
272. Lib-Dems doing better in local government by elections, than general elections? So whats new?
256 Red Rag - Stern has agreed to advise the Green Investment Bank set up by the Conservatives but not to be an adviser to the Conservative Party - semantics really.Liebor are truly the most mendacious and incompetent govt in modern history.
263. I suppose it depends what you want to achieve when elected I suppose. Obama could be more popular if he’d been more centrist certainly, but on the other hand he and the Democrats were never going to get a better chance to get major reform through than in his first couple of years.
275 - I think you are thinking of somebody else. a) I never and have never posted on UK PollingReport and b) I am not a Tory.
282 (cont) And no idea what you are on about about re John McCain.
276. Indeed Christina. Labour would be mad to go anywhere near the John Terry thing to attack the Tories. Mind you, that doesn’t mean they won’t. In the end, all of us, even I suspect Labour die hards, know that Brown will screw up this little mini revival he’s managed to manufacture.
This ridiculous stuff about AV is a warning that Brown still hasn’t learned anything when it comes to deploying daft stunts to try and get on over on the Tories - You would think after the election that never was and the fisaco of flying to Iraq in the Tory conference that Brown would have learned his lesson? But no. All the evidence suggests that Brown is still keen on playing his silly games.
Sooner or later Brown will blow it big time.
Front Pages,
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/UK-News/Wednesdays-Papers—The-Front-Pages-On-03-February-2010/Media-Gallery/201002115540924?lpos=UK_News_Left_Promo_Region_0&lid=GALLERY_15540924_Wednesdays_Papers_-_The_Front_Pages_On_03_February_2010
281- You’re right, he could have gone through one of two doors (i.e., centrist/pragmatist or liberal bringer of change), but he somehow instead walked into the wall between the two doors. In the grand scheme of things, I can’t blame him for choosing a course of liberal activism but, in so doing, he needed to actually bring his vision to legislative fruition if it was all going to be worth it. I would never have predicted that he would be so unsuccessful (so far) in implementing that vision.
275,I think you should apologize to oracle and then you you apologize for been a supporter of a party that has wrecked britain,reform of the voting system,don’t make me fcuking laugh sonshine.
279.GIN, I am waiting for the reality of STV voting to hit the voting public in Aberdeen in 2012. And I hope the fact that this voting system was one of the joys of having the Libdems in coalition with Labour is highlighted too. Lets see how it works when it comes to public accountability and responsibility.
Very good headlines for the Tories considering the way the BBC covered the Osborne speech.
Public sector workers plan major strikes in run-up to election
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2010/feb/02/public-sector-workers-major-strikes
288. Who do you think the Aberdeen Tories will go into coalition with in 2012, Christina?
261 - I would disagree with that. Since 1983 less than 100 seats have counted the next day. That’s seven elections over 25 years. We shouldn’t be going backwards with counting on the night.
284.GIN, you cannot help but watch the way this scandal has developed, and with implications not just for those involved, but for team mates and colleagues in the premiership and the national squad.
And with a World Cup looming, I wouldn’t touch it with a barge poll, but then I am not as stupid as this current Labour crew. Mandelson managed to slag off Terry Wogan to try and score points off Cameron at the weekend. Out of touch, and out of ideas.
289.wibbler, indeed, but then Nick Robinson was the only one who didn’t like Osborne’s joke today. But hey, its his reputation. If I was Robinson, I would have highlighted the joke in my report, and made a self deprecating comment on the joys of the job.
re 288 Christina D and the public will find they like the power it gives them very much. One of your local Tories councillors causing a scandal. Don’t want to damage the party’s chances? Easy peasey in STV with FPTP the Tories would lose the seat as there would be no other option.
Not sure if already posted but Anthony Wells article with potentially very good news for the Conservatives - MORI data suggests Lab to Con swing is far higher in Lab seats than Con seats.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/
291.Alan, I know that the problems in Aberdeen were on the horizon before the 2007 elections, and this next set of locals in the City will show what a cynical and self serving pile of crap STV is. Responsibility and accountability will be AWOL, and it might even save the Libdems from meltdown locally, but its going to yet again stick two fingers up to the idea that its there to serve the electorate instead of a particular political party. Yuk.
295.ChrisA, you haven’t a scooby on this.
Extraordinary how little UK-wide coverage today’s historic announcement in Wales has received. It seems the broadcasters still have plenty to learn in dealing with devolved matters - if this isn’t vaguely newsworthy I don’t know what would be.
297. “and this next set of locals in the City will show what a cynical and self serving pile of crap STV is”
You talk about STV as if it was a sentient being.
297 ChristinaD
Do we also take it that you would want the AMS abolished for the Scottish Parliament, and have all MSPs elected by FPTP?
299. Wouldn’t it still have to pass Parliament. Wouldn’t be surprised if Labour left it as a wasps nest for the Tories to sort out.
301. Oldnat - Yes, I think we can take that pretty much as read!
I’ve watched STV. It’s much worse than UTV or ITV London.
302. Yes, apparently there is some sort of Westminster involvement, even if it’s passed by a two-thirds majority in the Assembly. I’m not sure exactly what the Westminster role is - but no wonder I’m in the dark given the lack of coverage!
ChristinaD: in order to be judged competent to criticise STV you first have to demonstrate that you understand it at all.
304. Agree it’s worse than UTV, but it does have one good thing in common with UTV - it’s maintained its independence from the monster that is ITV plc.
295.”re 288 Christina D and the public will find they like the power it gives them very much. One of your local Tories councillors causing a scandal. Don’t want to damage the party’s chances? Easy peasey in STV with FPTP the Tories would lose the seat as there would be no other option.”
And your whole Libdem council being a bloody disgrace, don’t worry, you get to vote them down the list, or do you? No, you don’t, what you effectively do is given the rotten party a second vote if the majority choice of local candidate is not to your liking. Only you don’t realise that because by marking them down you think that you are dismissing them, and the poor sods in the majority only get one vote. Easy. You screw up big time, and your party doesn’t suffer for it. And don’t tell me that the Libdems were not well aware of this when they got it introduced.
And me, well I got to go out as an activist and cover most of Deeside for one friggin councillor by election. I saw the best candidate’s very hard fought campaign awarded with a FPTP majority, and then some one else who hardly even bothered win. But then, its now no surprise that I haven’t heard of them since either. We are a very rural area, and everyone used to know their councillor by name and his high profile. Now we see no one. Makes the idea of the word local a bit of a joke. Politics and voting should be about serving the public, and PR takes the local out of it. Its not much fun for either public or the activists. No wonder the Euro’s saw mail shots and lots of complaints about no visible electioneering on the ground.
308. “awarded with a FPTP majority”
Run away and play, you are innumerate…
308. Christina, if it’s beyond the wit of man to be an effective ‘local’ representative for a population the size of that local government ward, MPs for much larger constituencies have clearly got no chance. In which case, when people talk about the need to preserve FPTP at Westminster to maintain the constituency link, they’re clearly being disingenuous - by your definition ‘local’ representation at Westminster has never actually existed.
297. I disagree, Christina. STV will force the Aberdeen Tories in 2012 to take some responsibility. Instead of having the luxury of being the perpetual opposition, they will have to ‘put up or shut up’. If the current ruling coalition is so bad, are Aberdeen Tories prepared to take part in a new administration, or leave part of the current coalition in place?
311.Alan, keep those plates spinning.
312. Keep avoiding giving answers, Christina.
297 ChristinaD
Yoohoo! Christina?
Do we also take it that you would want the AMS abolished for the Scottish Parliament, and have all MSPs elected by FPTP?
I find the byelection result in Surrey a good barometer on current thinking.
People may vote for Cameron as they see him as a means to remove brown, but it is done without enthusiasm and there are few positive reasons to vote for this other lot when they are just as bad expenses troughers as labour have shown themselves to be.
If the libs say they will end expenses routs, end the wars in Iraq and afghanistan and push for Blair to be tried as a war criminal, and help people recover after labour they may be seen as a credible alternative instead of a yapping dog at the periphery of the action.
Ted above mention Oz, it is very apt, and perhaps explains Brown’s current logic. With super strategist Crosby having come from Oz, he knows how this game is played. And he helped Boris get over the line remember.
The AV system in Australia does lead to it being a 2 party vote as all the focus is on the 2 party preferred vote and not on the individual level of all parties competing. Libs take note.
Currently here in Oz the liberals (the aussie Tories) have a lead over labour in their party support, called the primary vote. 42 to 41.
Are they a chance of winning? Not a hope in Hades!
Media support for the PM is strong. Attacking him would be like the beeb attacking the Queen, it does not and will not happen.
But being ahead surely means something? Err no it doesn’t.
This is because the Aussie Tories are well behind after AV, as the transfer of 3rd and 4th and 5th party votes means that from leading they are losing 52-48 in a percentage split. This partly explains why Climate Change has been manically debated in Australia as the two main parties fight for the 3% green 1st preference vote to get their preferences.
It has obvious parodies with fighting for the extreme right vote in Israel so that a party can get over the line in coalition, as these views need to be considered when making policy so as to avoid them supporting “the other mob”.
In my view AV has some merit, but it allows minority views to become more important pro rata than they should be.
Being a forced vote in oz, it means the donkey vote is hauled out even if they would rather have a beer at a pub. That also helps the labour party here in Oz. brown take note, compulsory voting gets the last dregs out and they will normaly be illiterates who vote labour to keep their benefits. Sad but true.
What does this mean in England, if not the UK as a whole?
I would imagine in an English conext, a 7% BNP vote which agreed to transfer support to whoever stopped immigration would be a powerful device. What do others think as backdoor dealing here in Oz is done despite the claim that there is no formal agreemnet to support one party or another…..and pigs fly.
Listening to Christina reassures me that the Tories’ DNA is programmed for extinction, and not just in Scotland…
314. If you finally get her to say ‘yes’, I think I can guess what the punchline is going to be…
313.Alan, I cannot resist replying to the claim that I am avoiding answering when we are discussing the Libdems on Aberdeen Council. Oh the irony. I was thinking about the situation this week after chatting to a friend about it, and then I thought of the current situation and the STV voting system about to be deployed again in 2012. And you know what, I realised that the STV voting system is going to reward the party/coalition in power, because it actively prevents them from being held accountable. And that is a real shame for the public in that city. Nice try.
315. Redcliffe, AV in Australia certainly doesn’t help minority voices to get heard in parliament - if Wikipedia is correct there’s no third party representation at all in the lower house (apart from a couple of independents). It’s arguably even worse than FPTP in that respect.
297 ChristinaD
Did you forget to answer me?
Do we also take it that you would want the AMS abolished for the Scottish Parliament, and have all MSPs elected by FPTP?
318. But I don’t think that addresses the question Alan asked about what the Aberdeen Tories should do.
It seems Blair is thought to have gone to war because he decided to support the USA rather than because of the proclaimed danger from WMD.
For a long time I was undecided but in the end on balance I came down against the war. But I do think that it is good policy for the UK to be ‘best friends’ with the USA. In the long run I think that is in our best interest. We have done them favours over the years and they have done us favours (e.g Falklands war).
I can understand why Blair is condemned for saying one thing and doing another but I do feel he acted in what he thought was the best interests of the UK. That is the job of the PM and like all PM’s it is sometimes necessary to be less than open about everything that goes on behind closed doors.
I am sure that a tory PM would have acted in the same way but without the same need to get approval from a less left leaning party.
James, The media do not consider a 3rd option, it is all geared to a 2 party preferred vote.
The votes of 3rd parties are not even mentioned in any polls, just who they vote for as a secondary option.
It would essentially make the Libs irrelevant in England in Westminster returns, and the SNP irrelevant in Scotland, just how the Tories and Labour want it!
the Libs ned to understand they would be turkeys voting for Xmas if they supported this format. Unles the media included them in polling and they polled wells, and were not lumped as “others” in a 2 party system which AV actually operates as.
Short’s testimony was big news here in Oz on brekky telly.
Her comment that Tony kept his whole cabinet in dark and they had no role in decision was gobsmacking to watch. Any dissent was hushed down or words to that effect.
323. I think it’s possible the Lib Dems might do all right out of AV (because they’re an ‘inoffensive’ option and might be a lot of people’s second preference) which is probably why they’re flirting with the idea.
But if they’re actually serious about principled support for a fair voting system, they shouldn’t touch this with a barge-pole. AV isn’t a staging-post to PR, it’s a cul-de-sac. Australia is proof enough of that.
314.oldnat, again, nice try. Just have a look back through the PB.com archives, I am on record as saying that despite the Scottish Conservatives being the biggest losers party wise over the last decade of devolution, I am still passionately against the PR systems deployed up here. When it comes to any voting system, I am passionate about the basic premise that voters, and not parties come first. And that is vital if we want to keep the idea of politics local.
But then again, I am equally passionate about making accountability and responsibility the main criteria too. And as for Westminster, with a local council and Holyrood, I don’t want an untrained social worker for an MP, I want a legislator who will scrutinise the current government what ever their party allegiances. Local councillor I can see and talk to first, Holyrood for front line services and not a life style guru cos they are bored and need to look busy. And Westminster for the big stuff.
320. oldnat.
Paxman does it far better.
Food-for-thought for all insomniac members of the Scotchlandshire parish….
327. “Paxman does it far better.”
But he got there in the end. Not only was it a ‘nice try’, it was a highly successful try!
237
1) Almost nothing to do with Bush. The main people responsible in the US government had been angling for regime change in Iraq from the first Gulf war onwards - they used 9/11 as an excuse. Bush was just a front man - Cheney was the president.
2) What Americans do is their business. Our PM lied to parliament and the country to get us into a war that would provide him with a nice big stage to strut his ego on - plus there was no plan to deal properly with the chunk of terriotory he’d signed us up to occupy. That’s our business (and only our business).
328. Says a man posting on an internet forum at ten to one in the morning!
325. James Kelly: But if they’re actually serious about principled support for a fair voting system, they shouldn’t touch this with a barge-pole. AV isn’t a staging-post to PR, it’s a cul-de-sac
…and worse, in the wrong direction!
319/323. Two different countries with very different histories. You can’t make simplistic analogies.
Was there ever a viable third party in Oz that was actually extinguished by the switch to AV in 1919?
Thought not…
So the fact it doesn’t have one now is hardly conclusive evidence of a threat to the LibDems…
In theory AV works for a 3rd party, but in reality they get swamped and it is a 2 party voting system.
The independents you mentioned james were the old party member under another guise, such as Tony Windsor in north NSW who fell out locally but was well known.
Without having been the incumbent it is effectively impossible for any 3rd party option to win.
We had a major centre party fail under AV, called the democrats, who were set up “to keep the bastards honest” by Don Chipp, yet people revert to type in a 2 party system quickly.
I am no liberal supporter, but this will destroy them sadly, leading to permanent labour Governments on a combined liberal preferences and labour vote, and they need to understand the nuances. When people realise that a vote for the 3rd force is in actuality a vote for say labour then people go back to voting for the other big party. Not hard to understand really. why votte for a 3rd force when you gett he same gain if you do? And fence sitting is not allowed, as the preferences are announced in ADVANCE.
I anticipated your comments Rod, and answered them above.
326 ChristinaD
Indeed. You believe that the legitimate voice of Conservatives on the domestic policies of Scotland should have been silenced because of your preference for a particular voting system.
Annabel Goldie should not be in the Scottish Parliament (according to you).
The Tory representation in the Scottish Parliament in 1999 should have been 0 (according to you) - and without the AMS representation then, you would have been unlikely to have gained 3 constituency seats in 2003, and an amazing rise to 4 in 2007.
The Tory viewpoint should have been erased from any discussion of Scottish health, education etc (according to you).
Clearly you will be supporting Margo’s Assisted End of Life Bill, since you support the end of Tory Life in Scotland.
Still, you are a woman of principle. You argue for your principles, despite disenfranchising your party in the process.
333. I agree it’s not a threat to the Lib Dems in this country - in fact it would probably help them marginally, simply because of the nature and image of the party. The same is not true for less ‘fluffy’ minority voices, who would have an even harder time getting fair representation than they do under FPTP.
326. If we had FPTP for Holyrood, Jack McConnell would currently be leading a third-term majority Labour government. Shudder.
335. Er, where exactly?
Answer my question. Did Australia lose its existing third party as a result of the switch to AV in 1919?
306 Rod Crosby
In order to be judged competent to criticise STV you first have to demonstrate that you understand it at all.
Dr Samuel Johnson, the famous lover of Scotland, famously observed:
“You may abuse a tragedy, though you cannot write one. You may scold a carpenter who has made you a bad table, though you cannot make a table. It is not your trade to make tables.”
“Did you forget to answer me?”
Oldnat, no, I didn’t forget to answer you. But I was fielding the whole pro PR brigade, you got missed in the cross fire. Got to laugh though, we have the PR babes who don’t actually live with the system on a daily basis in their local or national politics, coupled with the SNP and Libdem gang in Scotland who benefit most.
And all up against one anti PR poster who actually bothers to be an activist and lives with three PR systems out of four voting voting systems. And one that thinks that voters should come first and not party. And the fact that my party loses out the most if FPTP was still deployed for all elections up in Scotland says it all.
Last night you were listing your dazzling area of elections lined up future and just past, and you know what, it made me really angry. I have a life outside politics, but I do want to be involved. But you may enjoy the almost constant elections over the next few years, I don’t.
I am angry that the huge voting disaster, well trailed, that has led to the locals being postponed for a year. And if that is supposed to make people more keen to get involved in politics on the ground, its an almighty fail. It means less, not more involvement. Scotland is going down the toilet, and its whole political way of life has become a joke.
340. But Rod wasn’t asking Christina whether she was capable of devising STV…
James, I think you have not answered my thinking on AV either and how it changes voting perception.
If a Tory voter such as say Christina in Aberdeen-shire was going to vote SNP to stop Labour winning, yuet the SNP had a pact with labour to transfer votes against the nasty Tories, why would I bother to vote at all as my vote goes to the other mob in the end anyway?
That assumes the 2 party system in Scotland under AV were the SNP and Labour, although with “national media” on this I could see it being portrayed as Labour against Tory even in Scotland after not so long.
340 Seth O. Logue
But Dr Johnson’s strictures apply to being the customer. Christina wants to exile herself and her friends to being the window shoppers who have insufficient to even enter the shop.
Mike, if you around, I have a comment stuck in the mod box.
340. SOL.
I was thinking about this today, wondering how long it would take to explain each voting system.
I reckon I could do FPTP in 5 seconds, AV in about 10, PR (Euro style) in about 30 with a piece of paper, and STV in well over a minute.
342 redcliffe62
“I could see it being portrayed as Labour against Tory even in Scotland after not so long.”
Fear not. Christina will steadfastly argue against the Tories having any representation!
340.Seth, unfortunately my comment is stuck in the mod box. But hope you look for it lately.
“If a Tory voter such as say Christina in Aberdeen-shire was going to vote SNP to stop Labour winning”
Highly improbable scenario, but I’ll suspend my disbelief for the purposes of the question!
I agree with Rod to an extent - we wouldn’t end up with a national two-party system because of where we’re starting from. But what there would be is ‘local’ two-party systems that would become even more difficult to break into - Labour/Tory in London, Lib Dem/Tory in the West Country, Labour/SNP in many parts of Scotland, and so on.
340.”306 Rod Crosby
In order to be judged competent to criticise STV you first have to demonstrate that you understand it at all.”
That is my comment of the day. Its like driving a car and finding it a real pain to navigate, and it doesn’t get you where you want to go. But someone then comes along and criticises your use of said vehicle instead, and by attempting to tell you that you problem is more that you forgot to learn to drive.
349. I’m saying nothing about women drivers…
Rod, You have correctly said that the systems are different.
The year 1919 is not relevant in Australian politics as perhaps 1919 was in britain.
The examples below will show where the crossover is relevant TODAY.
I have also simplified the roles of country parties in Oz, as there were country and urban political parties, and lumped them together as they did eventually merge, but this forum would not care for that level of detail.
With apologies and as a single example, the liberal national parties of country and town mps only merged in Queensland in the last few years, after operating apart for the last 3 generations, and nationally they are still apart. For this purpose they are both part of the 42% primary vote.
I have given you palpable proof that under AV a third party gets squashed and the reasons why, normally within 2 election cycles.
This happened with a second third party in Oz in the last 10 yeras, who had 15% plus of the vote, called One nation as well earlier this decade, again in 2 cycles. They had a strong voter base yet were made LAST preference by both Labour and Liberals here to keep them out.
This was because there was a genuine fear they could break through, their views on immigration struick a cord with people, (BNP anyone?) and even if having the highest primary vote if it fell under 50% they would always be kept in check and lose.
Even Screaming Lord Sutch in his heyday would have been higher up the ballot.
Incidentally, false pictures purporting to be the leader of that third party in sexy lingerie shots were coincidentally released to the Australian media the week before the election. The apology to her as it was not her were printed the week AFTER the election but politics is dirty here as well!
349. Christina, I must say I haven’t noticed local government grinding to a halt since the horrors of STV were visited upon it. The library still has the same opening hours, my bins still get emptied - OK, the local council has introduced an annoying rotational system for the wheelie-bins, but I dare say such things were capable of happening even under FPTP.
315 redcliffe - how do backdoor deals in AV work, though? I can understand a public pact - ‘vote for me and then vote for X who is less bad than Y’. But a secret deal will not be known to the people who have to vote, or it’s not a secret any more?
My own view is that AV isn’t the magic Tory-killing bullet that some think - it might slightly delay a Tory win if they would otherwise get it, but pressure builds up for a change eventually if that’s what people want (which in our environment means the LD vote would gradually get more pro-Tory). On the other hand it does seem to give people a fairer chance to both express a real preference and then choose between the parties that might actually win in their seat, so it’d be helpful for people who feel marginalised at the moment, including the third of the big parties in any seat where the other parties are battling it out: it virtually kills off the tactical squeeze.
351. Yes, we know this. AV destroys Condorcet Losers, such as BNP and One Nation, but assists Condorcet Winners, such as the LibDems.
Chalk and Cheese…
You s eem blase about this James.
LET ME PAINT IT TO YOU IN BLACK AND WHITE AS TO WHAT THIS MEANS FOR THE 2 PARTY SYSTEM AND WHY YOUR THEORY THAT IT WOULD BE A LABOUR-SNP 2 PARTY ARRANGEMent IS WRONG.
If the tories and labour and liberals in the UK agreed to swap votes as preferences ahead of the SNP to “save the union” it may take 45% or higher in a constituency for the SNP to win a seat, as Labour with say 15% and Tories with 20% and liberals with 20% would all combine to outvote the SNP even if they had 45%
This happened in Oz with one nation, do we really think that the Wastemonster parties would not try exactly the same thing?
I voted for two parties in the 2007 locals, Tory and SNP. And the wee lassie from the SNP got my vote for one reason only. And its because she was the only non Tory candidate that bothered to leaflet me in my patch during that election campaign. She did it the night before the elections, and literally on her bike. No one else bothered to come near us, but then with PR, they didn’t need too. See how it all works. Forget the voter or the activist, put party first and you will be rewarded, well, that is if you are SNP or Libdem up here. Cynical yes, but also effective.
So sorry if I cannot be arsed with that crowd ganging up on me tonight for having the temerity to think that the voter should come first, party second.
OK, I have now caught up with the thread and see that Dr Johnson has generated a lot of comment from the Scots. Now I understand why James Boswell was so transfixed.
What the voter wants from a voting system is simplicity. A candidate in a national election is selling himself into a mass market. It is MacDonalds not the local Chinese. So a short menu with familiar brands and a quick and simple purchase. BigMac, Fries and Coke. Not a number 16 to start, with a 23, 46 and 35 followed by two 63s.
Even if LondonStatto takes only 2 minutes to explain STV, I would still prefer the 5 second FPTP.
PR is producer led. FPTP consumer led.
Interesting article on UKPR. MORI’s aggregate polls for 2009 seem to suggest big differences in different kinds of seats. Maybe someone would like to debunk these numbers:
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/2444#comments
353 NPMP
I was actually surprised to see you write “AV isn’t the magic Tory-killing bullet that some think”. While those of us who aren’t supporters of Labour won’t be surprised to see your confirmation that the AV proposal is simply part of a party agenda, as opposed to a people’s agenda, it’s still surprising to see confirmation of that from your side of the fence.
Odd that your party didn’t think that the AMS system that they devised for Scotland/Wales was somehow inappropriate for England.
355. The pattern of transfers under STV (and AV) council elections in Scotland indicates something different.
The SNP are nothing like One Nation (even in Scotland)…
As I said before, you cannot make simplistic analogies between Australia and the UK.
359 inappropriate -> appropriate
Nick, the deals on preferences are initially secret and behind closed doors, being negotioated locally and nationally right up to voting day.
Sometimes a local candidate goes off message, say a labour guy who shows he is pro forestry in Tasmania, presumably as half his constitiuency works in forestry! If he did not do so, his approach would go down would go down like a lead balloon!
The Greens then say they will vote for the liberal (read Tory here)in protest. Whilst they can go against national agreed policy, which is made at the last minute, few do of course.
Labour promised to stop Japanese whaling in australian antarctic waters to get the Greens preference vote last time, but have done nothing to antagonise Japan, their biggest trading partner.
And the boss of the Greens is not happy, yet he cannot see himself to cross the floor and deal with the dreaded liberals. (Tories)
If you vote Green in Oz you assume your vote is a Labour vote by proxy. Although they claim they might support the liberals so as to get some placatory minor concessions.
So greenish thinking conservatives cannot vote Green as it means labour gets their vote. Confused?
356 Christina
She did it the night before the elections, and literally on her bike.
I never realised that the SNP had a Tebbit tendency. They would definitely now get my second vote.
355. No - at that point I really do part company with you, Redcliffe. Firstly, I’m highly sceptical that such a pan-unionist pact would be attempted in the context of a Westminster general election - could the Tories really switch from their general “Labour eat grannies” theme to say “oh, but by the way, it’s very important you give them your second-preference, even granny-eaters have their good points”? Secondly, in the context of a pre-existing four-party system, most people are just going to ignore those ‘instructions’ anyway. People just don’t have that kind of party loyalty - they’d decide their own second preferences for themselves. But I can see how it would be different in Australia where minor parties and candidates who have no hope of winning anyway can become ‘clients’ of the major parties.
For the avoidance of doubt, though, I think AV would be a backward step. If the Lib Dems do cut a deal with Labour, they should insist on Roy Jenkins’ AV+ as an absolute minimum.
359: No, it’s not simply part of a party agenda, but people have different motivations - some (like me) like it because it’s fairer, some like it because they think it’ll prevent a right-wing government gaining power on a minority vote.
A couple of interesting articles:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/daniel_finkelstein/article7012664.ece
puts the interventionist dilemma well and
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/maryriddell/7130822/Suddenly-grumpy-old-Gordon-Brown-doesnt-look-such-a-lost-cause.html
is a good counter-factual read for people who can’t stand Gordon.
358: Anthony Wells is a bit sceptical himself. I’m quite sure it’s true that the swing has been bigger in the C2DE demographic, and obviously that’s going to affect certain types of marginal a lot. Recently the swing back (copyright R. Crosby) seems to have been concentrated in just this group, though.
362 - I see (sort of) - thanks, redcliffe.
358.”PR is producer led. FPTP consumer led.”
Seth, it also makes delivery a lot easier too. I find it easier to make the effort to be actively involved in politics when its FPTP, PR leaves me cold. And if it doesn’t excite me as an activist, it really lets me down as a voter. I cannot put it simpler than that. Even the days that I wasn’t helping out my party, they still bothered to come to my door, which no one else did apart from the lassie the night before the elections in 2007. And they have a sense of humour. Back in the by election last year on my patch, I had to miss one night because I was throwing a birthday bash for an SNP local association chairman, my crew turned up to canvass him to much laughter.
Rod, in terms of voter strength One nation had up to 40% in some seats and almost none in many areas of the country as a whole. They were strong in Queensland where they were based, and had significant numbers of seats at regional level (Queensland parliament) as well as winning the odd seat in the national parliament. (Actually the upper chamber)
Of course they are different animals politically, but the above shows similarities, in voting intentions, which is what I was focusiing on and alluding. Reading the above, do you not agree.
357. “PR is producer led. FPTP consumer led.”
Untrue. Opposite of true. FPTP is a conjuring-trick that perpetuates the power of two parties on minority votes. PR (especially STV) hands that power back to the people.
367. Ah, the plot thickens, it seems a lack of ‘excitement’ is a decisive factor. Perhaps a “fair voting can be fun” poster campaign would do the trick?
369 James
Is their any consumer research on attitudes to and preferences for the different systems being deployed in Scotland?
363 Seth O. Logue
“She did it the night before the elections, and literally on her bike.”
I interpreted that quite differently - remembering romantic liaisons in 1950s Aberdeenshire. Acrobat rather than Tebbit.
James, if Brown can have Thatcher to tea, I can see the three main union leaders prior to the election under AV all saying they will do whatever it takes to save the union and that they will do nothing to support the SNP.
Whatever it takes, remember?
Remember by supporting labour in government the liberal vote in Scotland has been decimated as outside Glasgow the message that a vote for the libs was a vote to keep labour in power was not popular. You see a link there surely.
All 3 holding hands,saying they are there to save Britain against the nationalists would be agood PR opportunity and one they would all support, now Huhne is in and not Kennedy.
O/T:
This an interesting quote from Martin Palmer on climate change, taken from a Radio 4 programme presented by “ethical man” Justin Rowlatt:
{Link to transcript}:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/nol/shared/spl/hi/programmes/analysis/transcripts/25_01_10.txt
“In the 70s and 80s the environmental movement believed that if it put the scientific facts –
the data – in front of us, we would all wake up and we would reform ourselves and create a utopian,
happy world. What then happened is the classic collapse of that utopian hope and you move into stage two and stage two is the apocalyptic. So for example, the world is going to be swamped by floods, struck by fire, destroyed by plague, everything will collapse, society will fall apart. it’s that use of fear that is the main indicator of this.”
362. redcliffe2, you are running ahead of us.
In Oz you have STV for the Senate. Problem is it has been degraded to nothing more than endorsing a party list/coalition through the cynical device of the “Above/Below the line” voting amendment. i.e.
Either
Go through the torture of ranking all 20/30? candidates, else your vote is deemed spoiled; Or
Tick a box, which endorses your party’s ranking of candidates and any transfers to other parties.
But, correct me if I’m wrong, this has not yet infected the lower House elections, conducted under AV.
So how do parties “coerce” transfers between parties or candidates in these lower House elections? Do they employ “How to Vote” cards?
371. Seth - Not that I know of, but between you and me I do know an Aberdeenshire political activist who has a thousand-and-one personal anecdotes to help fill that void.
Not this election of course James, but under AV that rapprochement would be a sensible doctrine.
Entirely in keeping with keeping political undesirables from decisionmaking.
371 Seth
The only “research” I can find was a tiny online “poll” on an SNP blog
FPTP: 2 votes
STV: 22 votes
AV: 1 vote
WTF?: 3 votes
353 NPMP
pressure builds up for a change eventually if that’s what people want
A vital point. If you change the system to beat the people, the people will beat the system to change you. All you’ll achieve is short term gain at the expense of long term loss.
373. But Redcliffe, even if that does happen, the success of such a strategy would depend on the cooperation of literally millions of voters who hold no particularly strong allegiance to the parties who are telling them what to do with their preferences. Don’t you think there’s a rather strong possibility that either a) it wouldn’t have much effect at all, or b) there’d actually be a bit of a public backlash against the presumptuousness of it all?
Christina , if you are still around I’ve sent you a mail.
363.Seth, to put it into perspective, over the last four years taking in 2007 & the local by election last year. I have received that one leaflet from the SNP by hand, and only one from the Libdems last year in that local by election. That is it, nothing else from the other parties, there stuff usually comes via the postie. Back in 2007, my local Tory councillor and MSP FPTP candidate were both on foot personally delivering their leaflets because they thought that the personal touch mattered.
My old single ward councillor used to hand deliver a leaflet telling us what he had been doing in the ward personally, and by hand. And you should check out the size of his ward. He wouldn’t let anyone help with this by the way, reckoned it was the only way he could stay in touch with a ward of that size. Now check out our 3 man ward. PR kills the need to bother on the ground, its party led, not local candidate led. And Rod & Co can spin as much as they like, that remains the case. It means the smaller parties don’t have to try as hard, but they should have to do that. If your candidate and campaign is the right one, and you want effort to be rewarded, don’t go for PR.
In a political twist, PR kept the Tories in the game in devolution when the whole of Scotland was not for bothering with them at all. And that is all you need to know about PR. FPTP kicks the most disliked party out of politics, PR makes sure they don’t get kicked out of power. And that is the biggest irony of all.
Spot on Rod, in lower elections they actually hand out “how to vote cards” so the donkeys tick the boxes in the order that head office wants.
You either tick 1 through to say 8, and that order is entered, or the most common way is just to tick one box with abig “1″ and the preferences chosen by head office to maximise the chance of that candidate over the others are entered.
With 83% of votes between the two major parties then the addon are just a top up of 17%, split 12% to labour and 5% to liberals (Tories) on average.
382. PR also ensures that no area is less ‘important’ than any other. How much more attention do you think the needs of marginal constituencies are going to get in the coming three months compared to the needs of the majority of constituencies that are ’safe’? Ten times as much? A hundred times as much?
How much more leaflets? How much more personal contact with candidates?
384. My brain is frazzled - I think that should have been “how many more leaflets?”.
383. Are you telling me that you actually have “Above the line” voting now for the Lower House?
Bad news:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/8493149.stm
James as I mention above, you are thinking logically.
But voting for many is a chore, let me explain.
People go out, EVERY AUSSIE VOTER, of whom about 20% of whom are dragged there or they are fined.
They just get there, put a 1 in the box and go home. They do not care if candidate 4 is ahead of candidate 5 on the ballot, they just vote 1.
those that follow the specific how to vote card of their party are the second biggest group, and those that actulaly think and choose for themselves based on the individual candidates are the smallest voting group.
As an example, some might have changed the order not to put ONE NATION last which their party may have chosen to do had they ticked 1 in the box or followed a how to vote card to the letter.
Each vote card is local, as who is in what order varies every constituency.
There is a presumptiousness that your vote does not matter. And if you are a 3rd party that is the only view you could have.
388. OK, I understand the point you’re making a bit more now. In that case we need to avoid compulsory voting coupled with AV like the plague!
384. So true. David Butler’s criticism of FPTP on the 1979 show rings down the decades. “Under FPTP, 90% of the electors are regarded by the parties as being either sufficiently saved or irredeemably damned as to be safely ignored…“
389. Not so much compulsory voting as compulsory ranking of ALL preferences.
In Oz they have both!
Compulsory voting is only acceptable if the top box reads “Fcuck off - none of you deserve my vote”.
392. You may still spoil your ballot under “Compulsory” Voting…
I don’t want to set a Broxtowe cat amongst the Moroccan pigeons, but Christina is making a lot of sense to me, the layman.
Rod Crosby is deliberately obtuse on this subject, forcing me to google and read nasty mathematical formulae. So he goes to the bottom of any list that may be presented for my vote.
James is convinced of his cause (when is he not?) and argues cogently but in the abstract. This is what I mean by producer led - PR makes sense to politicians and academics but does is it understood by James McDoe on the street.
I do understand oldnat’s “turkeys voting for Christmas” argument against Christina and the Scottish Tories but then we must set against this Nick P’s point about voters playing any system to their advantage if they genuinely want change.
Redcliffe seems to be making the argument that all AV does is entrench the two party system (with a bias to Labour). So added complication seems not to have delivered any commensurate benefit.
What I guess I am trying to say is that no one has yet sold the need for change to me.
P.S. There really does need to be some good consumer research done into this. At least three groups need studying: voters, activists and politicians.
394. “James is convinced of his cause (when is he not?)”
More often than you’d think, Seth. The next instance will be at Murrayfield at the weekend.
“Rod Crosby is deliberately obtuse on this subject, forcing me to google and read nasty mathematical formulae…”
Sorry you can’t keep up.
394 Seth O. Logue
My objection to Christina’s stance is much more than “turkeys/Xmas”. The Tories have a distinctive political stance, and (while I don’t agree with their constitutional stance and parts of their other policies) it seems to me that any decent system of democracy requires that their level of support in the population deserves to be represented in Parliament.
Essentially you need to agree with my position that the Tories need to be represented (and find the best method to do that), or Christina’s position that the Tories should have no voice in Parliament.
Obviously, in different political arenas such as Westminster the marginalised parties may differ, but as an intellectual proposition the gain/loss for any party should matter less than representation of varying political stances in the legislature.
395 James
That’s Scotland’s fault. It’s all the thanks you get for toadying up to the French to get at the English.
The English just treat them as surrender monkeys (well maybe not this year, but the principle is enduring).
Interesting Dinner with Portillo topic comng up Wednesday night. “Why should we care about Scottish independence”. Suspect it might get a few posters frothng at the mouth.
Can’t help the Tories in Scotland (although I doubt it’ll have much noticeable effect) for Portillo on sayng he doesn’t care if Scotland breaks off or not.
Rod, the average over governed Australian in most states has 4 elections, often under different voting systems. Most states have different voting systems. Every 3 years for some, longer for others.
There will be a link somewhere for it but I do not have it.
There are in most states except Queensland where I live state upper and lower elections, and national upper and lower elections.
Lower house, (house of representatives) is a preferential system as I explained above, where getting 50%5 of votes is necessary to win.
this is not exhaustive preferential voting, whereby every vote has a 1 on it and is then passed to the least worst until a result is gained.
This system I feel has the potential to harm the snp in Scotland if vote for a union party at all costs is pushed by the opposition parties, as well as the orange order!
Under AV this would be a simple message to push.
In conclusion, I think the system can be rorted to keep the biggest two parties in the UK in complete control, and other parties can be held in check. Howard ran Oz for many years and his strategist is in london now and knows all abot these aspects and outcomes.
Suggest Cameron and Crosby have a chinwag and look at the pros and cons. If they turn on the liberals, putting them down the preferences list, then there is a good chance they would be decimated. If the Tories give the libs a fair go then THEY will be decimated. They need to destroy them locally, in each seat, as they are an option to take seats away from Tories and to give to Labour on far lower votes in constituencies.
It could in theory be Tory 49% labour 26% and liberal 25% and Labour gets in on preferences. No wonder Brown loves it.
Great in theory for the liberals if all played fair but it never is. Manipulative and devious (read competent) politicians will in my view make it very risky in practice for them.
399 corporeal
Might be quite funny to see Easterross, Kristin and ChristinaD “frothing at the mouth”
401 - in your dreams oldnat
Steve Bell
“Your equality laws are unjust, pope tells UK before visit”
http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Guardian/Pix/pictures/2010/2/3/1265158814243/Steve-Bell-Cartoon-3-Feb-001.jpg
399. Oh God, please tell me David Aaraonovitch isn’t on that panel. Come to think of it, it was probably his idea - it’s one of his standard hobby-horses.
402 Kristin
I’m far too old for those kind of dreams!
394. SOL: is it understood by James McDoe on the street.
Precisely the problem I had at the Euros when people at work kept asking me how the system works (as I’m known to be interested in politics/elections).
Now Rod, (I know I said conclusion but just remembered this), getting a tad more specific here on AV, if the Tories and Labour agree to put the BNP at the bottom they will never get in.
But that may cost the Tories seats under AV.
However… if the tories were to put the BNP above the liberals and labour it might be worth a whole lot of seats to the Tories as Labour no doubt would put the BNP at the bottom as party policy.
People might bleat saying that it is the wrong thing to do against racists etc and shows the Tories support racism etc, but at the end of the day if you win the seat and labour does not then who cares about all the backroom shennanigans beforehand and if the BNP finished 5th or 4th on the ballot…
405 - so you say. Anyway, this FPTP supporter is going up the wooden hill. Night all.
394 - great post Seth.
397 oldnat
I did read more nuance into your view, but still give more weight to Nick P’s argument.
You are saying - I think - that an FPTP system in Scotland would result in the Tories getting no, minimal or at least disproportionately low representation. For this reason, the current PR etc systems protects their legitimate political voice (or more correctly the voice of their voters).
What I think Nick P is saying is that if a system is introduced which unfairly discriminates against a substantive political group then the medium to long term result will be that voters will compensate for them bias by increasing their support for the disenfranchised. So if the Tories get knocked out by an FPTP system this will result over time in the Tories increasing their support to the state that they do get representation.
OK, the Tories could be knocked out but the centre right voice will never be eradicated. New parties will form or existing parties will shift or split to compensate.
Seth. like it. It needs to be looked at for sure. Whether it is more democratic is howver highly debateable.
As apositive, it does mean you can register that you wish to keep someone out, so voting negatively against someone is easier.
A vote under FPTP assumes you support the party you put your “X” against, making you a supporter of that party, which is not always the case.
409 Seth O. Logue
“New parties will form or existing parties will shift or split to compensate.”
With respect to NPMP and yourself, you have never operated within a political system where a “new” party, prioritising a different political dimension than the now redundant left/right polarity tries to break into the “system”.
Unidimensional politics are only appropriate to those for whom the concept of a flat earth is too complicated.
That those of you who are fossilised into the 1940s - 1980s definitions of party differences fail to recognise that limitation is not surprising. However, two groups of cloned politicians competing to be the best managers of the status quo does not engage with the real choices that we can have.
I think it’s certainly true that AV wouldn’t have been supported by Labour MPs for the coming election because a lot of them know it would cost them their seats.
409 correction
First line unintentionally sounds rude. Should read “…, but still believe more weight should be given to Nick P’s argument”.
413 Seth O. Logue
Don’t see the difference. Neither version was rude.
old nat,
The blocking of third parties in oz has been done through preferential manipulation.
The fact that no media outlet queries here the unfairness as to why even the best supported party in the opinion polls cannot win an election sums up the views held here that it is the 50% plus one that matters, not how you get there.
If the biggest party in Oz in terms of voters supporting it cannot win, and that is with 42% support, what chance has a new party with say 10 or 20% as the democrats here and one nation had that can be swiped and blown away with contempt?
406 LondonStatto
Yes, this is I believe the core problem.
Taking the MacDonald’s vs local chinese analogy further than it deserves to go, I can see Redcliffe’s explanation of Party recommended preference lists being the equivalent of “set meal” rather than à la carte menus. But isn’t this ’simplification’ undoing the reason for the complication in the first place?
396 Rod Crosby
“Knowledge is Power” only works when the knowledge is needed.
If you want us to change you must explain.
404. It seems not.
At the table are columnist and broadcaster Rod Liddle, Scottish historian Michael Fry, former First Minister of Scotland Henry McLeish, broadcaster and writer Hardeep Singh Kohli, Vernon Bogdanor, Professor of Government at the University of Oxford, Tom Clougherty, Executive Director of the Adam Smith Institute, and Timothy Garton Ash, Professor of European Studies at the University of Oxford.
seth, People have the option to spend 20 minutes choosing candidates in order, or spending 30 secongs to tick a box. Both vote methos are valid, something they were not in the 2007 Scottish election where people’s ballots were spolit doing something similar.
And a lot more take the MacDomnald’s quick serve approach as they do not wnat to be there all night as they have other things to do, even if the fare is better if they take their time and study the options.
We like politics; if forced to vote many people do not care, and even political junkies who care as we do think they are all much of a bland muchness to judge by recent comments on QT.
411 oldnat
I think we have been here before and will return again.
Multidimensional politics still have distinct axes, one of which will approximate to a conventional understanding of left vs. right.
The added dimension of nationalist vs unionist that exists in Scotland does make the politics more rounded than flat-earth, but will the multiple axes survive events.
If Scotland gains independence then will the nicely round earth flatten?
Need to get some sleep now so no need to answer tonight. It is not a subject I expect to disappear!
Night all!
415 redcliffe62
But you know that no media outlet in Scotland has done anything other than support the UK Union.
FPTP is convenient for the “big” parties. AMS in Scotland/Wales was designed to prevent SNP/Plaid ever getting into power (Oops!).
I agree with you about the weakness of AV, and how it can be manipulated to the advantage of the “big” parties, but it is also true that fairer systems can allow minority opinions to become the acceptable majority.
I know Christina would hate it if the Tories ever attained power in Scotland, but STV does allow that to happen.
Corporeal, wish i was there.
Pity Henry McLeish left politics under a cloud, the man has depth and an acceptance of other people’s opinions. In my view the only pollie to come within cooee of Salmond in scotland these days from the ranks of the opposition.
And a soft nationalist if I can call him that, wanting most areas devolved including full fiscal autonomy and control in Scotland except in key areas such foreign affairs and defence. But feel free to correct me on that after tonight as I would love to know his thoughts in 2010.
We are agreed old nat that changes in electoral system have little to do with democracy and everything to do with attempting to maintain the status quo as an outcome.
Thi discussion on AV as avoting option is no different after 12 years of labour governmnet, so it is an insult to the electortae to pretend otherwise.
Huhne should read the above and realise that unless he gets to an acceptable threshold subject to favourable preferences his party will be squeezed to oblivion and seen as an extension of whom they choose to support. Maybe he could learn A LOT from talking to the Australian democrats, (the Aussie liberals) and why they lost.
420 Seth O. Logue
Good Morning!
It’s more than Unionist/Nationalist - it’s the Labour centralist state (supported by the Tories here) as against a decentralised structure (which English Tories say they want - but I doubt a Tory Government of England would deliver).
There are multiple fault lines in politics. Currently, the centralist beliefs of most in Con/Lab/LD marginalise the decentralist beliefs of others within those parties.
As long as you are happy with a system that excludes political beliefs that are not shared by the candidates for elected monarch, then so be it. I’m quite glad that I don’t have to live only within such a limited political system.
419 Redcliffe
Don’t almost all voters vote for a party with an identifiable political positioning? Many voters - probably most - won’t even know the name of their incumbent MP let alone his policies.
So my real question is just how informed is the ranking of 8 candidates going to be?
[Now really to sleep]
Fascinating to catch up with the discussion again. And to see oldnat fighting for more Conservative party representation in Scotland under PR.
But he misses the point, voter first, activist participation second, and a lowly third, party under FPTP. PR puts party first, leaving voter and activist a lowly equal third. And find me an activist on this site who like me disagrees with PR, and belongs to any of the third or smaller parties? In Scotland, I am part of the latter group, I want my party to do the work on the ground, make the arguments and persuade the voters to the cause. I don’t want a system that produces Tory politicians in government as a consequence of others sowing up the system in favour of their own party.
Labour have a strong hold in politics up here in some area’s, and the SNP and the Libdems, both other centre left parties fighting for the same votes hope to break that up with PR. And if it knocks the only right leaning party totally out of the game, all the better. Work the constituencies on the ground, win the arguments, but don’t sow up the voting system in favour of the party system at the expense of the local voter and political accountability, and then dress it up as more democratic. It isn’t.
Get this into perspective, we already have three different systems up here, and Brown wants to introduce a fourth just as his party is about to lose power. It doesn’t get more cynical than that, but its no different from what is already on offer up here. We now have an extra layer of politics in devolution, and the only people who benefit is the politicians and the political parties. The voters are the last on the list, just look at the way they are now treated by Holyrood. We have lifestyle guru’s who think that they can tell us how to live, and never make any tough decisions about what is really important. Why should they care, its not like the whole lot of them will ever be voted out now thanks to PR, is it?
418 It is a repeat.
Fry is decent but bufferish, Mcleish is boring and weak, Kohli is embarrassingly out of his depth, the academics are tedious and Liddle does a Boris impersonation.
Avoid