The PB Index moves back 4 seats to the Tories
February 5th, 2010
CON SPREAD RANGES
340 - 345 Sporting Index
338 - 343 ExtraBet
344 - 347 Betfair Line market
LAB SPREAD RANGES
220 - 225 Sporting Index
221 - 226 ExtraBet
215.5 - 221.5 Betfair Line market
LD SPREAD RANGES
53 - 56 Sporting Index
54 - 57 ExtraBet
53 - 53.5 Betfair Line market
Has the Ipsos-MORI aggregate moved the markets?
After a week which saw a dramatic move against the Tories on the spread betting markets things have now settled down and it is the Tories who are seeing their spreads move forward.
As a result the PB Index, which seeks to extrapolate an election outcome based on what the betting markets are doing, has moved upwards by four seats and is now showing a projected Tory majority of 36.
Although this is progress for the blue team the projection only six days ago was for a majority of 50.
There’s been no new polling in the intervening period but there has been the MORI aggregate data for all its 2009 polling suggesting that the swing to the Tories in Labour held marginals was running well ahead of the swings elsewhere - thus adding weight to the marginals-only polling which points to better than average swing to the Tories in the battle-ground seats.
On top of that the markets have been steadied by Cameron’s more sure-footed performance at PMQs on Wednesday.
I’ve had a pretty good punting week. I sold the Tories at 350 seats on Sunday night and closed down the contract at 338. I had the same twelve seat change with a Labour buy bet. Then yesterday I went back in again as a Labour seller and Tory and managed to trade at the markets’ lowest Tory level for nearly a year.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
primo?
quattro
possibly the best nordic special forces off so malia.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/africa/8500611.stm
remind me who has hamstrung th RN?
I wonder if tim took his profits?
Buy Tory, sell Labour, hold Lib Dem.
First proper post that doesn’t use the term first, even though it was my first thought!
Bit bored now so why not play
“Guess the Sunday Newspaper Headlines”
Obviously John Terry this and that in the Tabloids but what about the broadsheets.
I predict
“Bank of England head gives dire warning on future borrowing”
So Ricky to run for parliament ‘eh.
In National Archives files released in 2007, it was revealed the head of MI5 claimed Tomlinson was involved in a Communist plot to destabilise the country.
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1248769/Royle-Family-actor-Ricky-Tomlinson-considers-standing-General-Election.html#ixzz0efot4LKv
Ah! can’t work out with Ricky on board why to plot didn’t succeed.
Well, I didn’t close my sell on SPIN and I don’t (yet) regret it.
Right now I’m more annoyed about missing (by being in a meeting) the 6/5 on the Lib Dems in Liverpool Wavertree following Ricky Tomlinson’s intervention. Labour hold? My arse!
Sorry to go off topic so quickly. For those betting on Obama winning in 2012 through learning the lessons of MA and doing a Clintonesque triangulation strategy now, here is a very interesting article from the Washington Post, no less (left of centre, but not as left these days as the NYT) which concludes that Obama, from his responses to Blanche Lincoln’s plea for him to abandon the left wing of the Democratic House, has no intention of being moved from his unpopular big liberal change agenda and is more than willing for the centrists Democrats such as Blanche to pay the price for that agenda. If that is indeed true, watch out for a bloodbath come November.
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/postpartisan/2010/02/obama_dismisses_blanche_lincol.html?hpid=opinionsbox1
Hahaha.
PM ‘very angry’ at the charged MPs. So angry they can keep the whip.
http://www.labourlist.org/pm-is-very-angry-at-charged-mps
Mike Smithson
Can you apply your skills to the DOW and FTSE?
It seems that confidence deriving from better than expected US Employment stats is being challenged by an increased focus on sovereign debt and deficit ratios.
Who will win?
Whilst I broadly agree with Sir Norfolk at 5, there is a danger in buying Tory at the moment. Punters are nervous, and a bad or fairly bad ICM or Populus poll could provoke a quite sharp drop. In contrast, I think a couple of good polls (unless they are stonkingly good, which seems unlikely in the short term) will, I think, produce only a modest drift upwards as punters wait to see whether the recent Conservative stumbles have been overcome.
In other words, I’d expect a medium-term rise in the Tory price, but there’s short-term risk on the downside IMO.
12 There is only one way to find out….FIGHT!!!!
Expenses MPs “can’t be protected under parliamentary privilege”
http://www.politicshome.com/uk/article/5406/expenses_mps_cant_be_protected_under_parliamentary_privilege.html
FPT 327 “324 - the argument, Geoff, is that MP stands for “member of parliament” which in the technical sense encompasses members of both houses even though the acronym is rarely if ever applied to peers. So don’t fly of the handle!”
Not flying off the handle, but the ‘argument’ is specious nonsense and, as someone else said, a deliberate attempt to conflate and mislead.
Three Labour MPs are to be charged and one Tory Peer who is leader of Essex CC. To imply that a County Councillor who happens t be a peer is the same as an MP is abject rubbish.
Looks like Cameron has got the jump on Gordon over expenses AGAIN. Whip removed immediately and Lord Hanningfield like persuaded to reign immediately.
Gordon’s response? ‘Very angry’
Pathetic.
17: I can see him in No10 wagging his finger and stamping his feet…’I am very very very cross with you naughty MPs, now go and save my vote next week’
Incidentally, I see the Libdems lost two council seats yesterday to Labour:
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/localgovernment/2010/02/yesterdays-local-government-byelection-results.html
Has their national vote share collapsed?
He is a member of the Lords as well as being a county councillor. Don’t want to downplay the situation (given that you can be a peer while not being a memeber of the Lords)
Hanningfield has resigned as leader of Essex County Council.
14. ‘Corrupt MP of the Week’….
10. My view on that has changed completely. I assumed (and still do) that’s he was effectively a hired actor, non-ideological, and would therefore find bending to the centre to be a fairly painless step. I’m beginning to think other posters on here saying his ego would be the prime consideration were right.
BBC Parliament will be showing the General Election from February 1974 on Friday 19 February from 0900
19: Where’s Mark Senior…doesn’t he keep us updated with the all-conquoring yellow peril?
#5.
Buy Tory, bye Labour, LD by-election win?
“Rumours” that Tiger Woods will return at WGC Accenture Matchplay on 17 Feb:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/golf/8500307.stm
I suspect Gordon is very angry because he got fined £12,000. If I had to pay back that much I’d be very angry too….
18 - I’m sure in the bunker, Gordo’s war game has Cameron forcing his man out first, and this will mean the public think the Tories are more corrupt than his troops. His men are going to fight the good fight and contest the charges to the bitter end, thus showing they are less on the fiddle (and helping to get his AV vote through)….
At least that is how the war is playing out in the Gordo’s head.
29: At least thats what his farmy farm animals tell him.
18
Probably throwing another epic sulk…
Er…is he back from NI?
He’s not on a plane is he?
I don’t want to think of him storming the cockpit to wrench the controls from the pilot’s hands in his impatience to get back to No.10
31 - “I don’t want to think of him storming the cockpit to wrench the controls from the pilot’s hands in his impatience to get back to No.10″
Of course he would be right, and the pilot wrong (probably also assume him of being a Tory Toff)….I mean as saviour of the world, how hard can flying a jumbo jet really be? Its all computer aided anyway these days….
32 (correction) assume -> accuse
Terry dropped
Had we joined the euro, the British economy would now be a catastrophe (rather than a mere disaster)
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/thetorydiary/2010/02/had-we-joined-the-euro-the-british-economy-would-now-be-a-catastrophe-rather-than-a-mere-disaster.html
Love this bit from the article,
Without the Conservative Party’s determined opposition to the euro during William Hague’s time at the helm of the party, Tony Blair would have been able to abolish our currency and the consequences would have been dire.
Jonathan Isaby
now to the anti hague league on here,discuss
34 - as skipper? Any link?
Whats the betting on the new England capt(whoever it maybe)to have a headline infedility story about them within hours of being appointed?
31 bono publico
He is in Exeter at the Cabinet Meeting postponed by the snows of January.
Local activists are hiding their canvassing reports. Ben Bradshaw is upping his cholesterol levels by spoon-feeding him Devon Clotted Cream. The rest of the Cabinet are praying.
36. Sorry, tweet from Waugh
paulwaugh
Terry dropped as England captain
On betfair, there’s a pile of money available to back tory overall majority at 1.49, or you could fish for better odds (i had 250£ matched @1.51 yesterday). I expect that these will prove to be the highest odds matched for tory overall maj before the election, so i’ve taken the plunge!
39: I think the phrase couldn’t care less spring to mind. I find football less and less interesting as time goes on.
35. Yes the current crisis has demonstrated beautifully the massive pitfalls of the euro, which eurosceptics pointed out a decade and more ago. A lot of credit should be given to Business for Sterling fo educating the matchstick-users in UK boardrooms.
34 - I must get my prescription checked, I read that as “Terry drooped”, which come to think of it would almost be more newsworthy.
41 “I think the phrase couldn’t care less spring to mind. I find football less and less interesting as time goes on.”
At last! Someone who feels the same way as I do.
It all went wrong when they started playing at different times to suit TV rather than all games kicking off at 3:00 PM on a Saturday.
It wos the Premier League wot did it.
Mike.
There’s a mistake on the post.
You sold the Tories and bought Labour on friday night not sunday.
39 - Excellent.
Should never have been appointed.
Did somebody say Gordo was in Exeter for the cabinet meeting this morning?
“Gordon Brown has hailed a new deal on Northern Ireland power-sharing as heralding “a new spirit of mutual co-operation and respect”.
Speaking at Hillsborough Castle, Co Down, this morning, Mr Brown stood alongside the Irish Taoiseach Brian Cowen, Peter Robinson, the First Minister and Democratic Unionist leader, and Martin McGuinness, Sinn Féin’s Deputy First Minister.”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/article7016360.ece
Did he fly straight back? Delay the cabinet meeting for the afternoon?
What is going on?
Spain’s Stock Exchange has slumped by 11% this week.
Markets turning really hard on countries with high sovereign debt and deficit to GDP ratios.
Bloomberg quoting Goldman Sachs analyst: “Up to 30% of European GDP at risk”.
Afternoon all. I love this sentence from the BBC article in respect of Lord Hanningfield.
The council leader, whose real name is Paul White, is accused of “dishonestly” submitting claims “for expenses to which he knew he was not entitled” - including overnight stays in London.
It rather makes his title sound like a gang alias.
Gordon is all too often “very angry” - he was very angry at McBride, very angry at Banker’s, very angry again at Bankers Bonuses - it’s one of his limited number of phrases.
Its a mistake to do so though, he is fighting the narrative of being a self indulgent bully and trying to establish a softer image through at home interviews then reminds everyone of the rumours by being very angry.
surely this move is profit taking by many people and particularly OGH who is something of a market mover
44 I’ll join the gang too - ridiculous sport.
It was Jimmy Hill and the maximum wage removal wot done it.
That, and the mindless thugs that destroyed the game on the pitch and in the terraces from the seventies onwards.
10/23- After a year in office, a few things seem to be true about Obama: 1) he is ideological, so won’t simply abandon his left-wing beliefs and shift to the center out of political expediency, 2) he does have a practical side, so will attempt to achieve only so much of his left-wing goals as he believes he can obtain under the circumstances, 3) but he seems to have a tin ear and a very poor sense of what can realistically be achieved, causing him to overreach. Hence, we see him NOT moving to the center, but rather ratcheting down the scope of his ambitions to the level he overoptimistically thinks he can sell to Congress. This puts him at odds with both the centrists and liberals in his own party since it achieves little to nothing to help them as they head into the mid-terms. But the lack of ability to sell his program to Congress is his own fault, since he is very weak in the salesmanship department. Even Al Franken was complaining yesterday that Obama is utterly failing to sell his own agenda to what should be a friendly audience: Democrats.
He is also a very egotistical man who is incapable of dealing with failure, so he pretends he doesn’t have any real failures or weaknesses instead of addressing them honestly and directly. This is causing him to seem increasingly out of touch not only with the electorate but also with reality.
46 well Gordon went to Exeter despite the cancellation last time to fulfil a soft interview appointment, this time he probably took a government plane from Exeter airport to Belfast, and will be back in time to do the PR stuff.
Cabinet without him must be a joy and relief to the others attending.
46. Yeah he did. I imagine Gordon’s carbon footprint must be enormous…….
53 - Strange how Gordo wasn’t so keen on plane hopping the other Wednesday.
http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/fds/hi/business/market_data/currency/11/12/intraday.stm
Sterling contiusing to slump…poor Richie (not so) Rich
45. It is sad that gerrard who is past his peak has not been our regualar captain for years. Inspiring on the pitch imho
57: Because Stevie G’s squeaky clean of course…. Just as long as you’ve got a bunch of liverpool fans as your jury.
Who are the bets on; Barry, Rooney, Gerrard, Ferdinand?
50. “surely this move is profit taking by many people”
Not entirely. I bought Tory seats just before PMQs on Wednesday having has no position and am now green. It’s a question of nerve and narrative whether to sell before the next non-AR poll is published.
52. S&S - from previous thread one of the reasons you can get payroll employment and unemployment both falling is because the two numbers they are based on two different surveys.
Payrolls comes from a survey of establishments, unemployment from a survey of households. Over long periods they broadly match up but there can be big differences from month to month especially as the household survey is much noisier than the establishment survey.
Well instead of blaming the USA this time, Gordo can blame Europe:
http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/markets/article.html?in_article_id=498910&in_page_id=3
60. Plus 3 Labour MPs getting charged - and not getting the whip removed -next polls will show Con lead getting bigger.
BAE guilty of corruption, £285m in fines.
Well that’ll pay for about a day’s worth of borrowing. Gordon will be hapy.
Please can the boffins get onto the bug with pb.com whereby it crashes your browser when you try to refresh. Terribly irritating when you have a live news feed running as well.
61- Thanks runnymede. Why is it useful to have these two separate trackers? Shouldn’t they be combined in some way?
Oh wait:
BAE will pay $400m (£255) in the US and £30m in the UK
Only £30m.. thats about 45mins worth then.
Make Crouchy captain.
He is very naive and actually squeaky clean.
58. I know he aint squaky clean, but I have always thought Gerrard has been a fantastically inspiring captain for Liverpool, singlehandedly responsible for winning vital games for the club almost singlehandedly.
For me, I think Terry is overrated, unpleasant and the stuff about his money dealings is of concern. That he messes about with teammates is a sign of immaturity and shows lack of character.
69. slight overuse of the word singlehandedly
I’m not going to say a word:
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/Politics/Prime-Minister-hails-his-wife-a-hero-as-he-talks-of-the-death-of-their-daughter/Article/201002115543472?f=rss
[53] - Cabinet without him must be a joy and relief to the others attending.
Apparently, Darling and Mandelson haven’t bothered to come. Presumably they’re too busy in London to take part in a series of not-at-all-disguised campaign visits:
http://www.thisisexeter.co.uk/news/Brown-s-Cabinet-meet-Exeter/article-1808447-detail/article.html
BBC: “Strong reports at Wembley that Terry has lost captaincy; FA has not denied these reports”
69 - Makes you wonder why he’s got money worries on 10 million a year.
Is he following StJohns tips?
(half joking)
74. A certain ex-England captain* has been known to have a flutter. Rumours that might include on a team that is London based and plays in blue - now that would be naughty.
*quite recent.
66. Well to get an unemployment rate, you need estimates of the labour force which you can only really get from a household survey.
The household survey has employment estimates too, but they are a lot noisier than the payrolls data. The latter are a good deal more refined (or manufactured some would say) and supposedly a better guide to what’s happening.
I think the payrolls survey started before the household survey as well - around 1939 I think.
75. Cryptic
75: There have been stories of serious gambling amongst Premiership/England players for ages. Cards, horses, you name it.
To be expected when you have young millionaires with about 3 GCSE’s between them
71 - I assume this is a taster of what the Piers Morgan interview will be like in a couple of weeks. I some how doubt that Piers is going to ask about economic matters, given his own difficulty understanding simple rules regarding investing in stocks and shares…
77. You have a keen brain sir
79. What makes you think he didn’t understand the rules?
71.
Of course, Brown’s family are not ‘props.
As a liverpool fan, I’m not sure about Gerrard. He CAN lead by example, but sometimes he tends to sulk and he’s never been as domineering for England.
79. Rules? What rules?
So we’d better start investing in buckets then. It will be utterly turgid no doubt.
81. Maybe they can talk about integrity, patriotism, pride in the armed forces and honesty ?
81 - Well otherwise he would have been guilty of insider trading….which he wasn’t…
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/media/you-may-not-be-guilty-piers-but-boy-are-you-naive-726902.html
76- It’s interesting that payrolls would be the more reliable figure, since the public definitely reacts much more strongly to the headline percentage figure.
That Vanessa wotsit is top totty. You can understand the temptation……
FPT: 325. There you are S&S, there’s statistics and STATISTICS.
by weathercock February 5th, 2010 at 3:57 pm
71 URGH - and the relevence of this now is?
My family are not props - either living or not as the case may be.
URGH again.
86. I’ll leave you to draw your own conclusions about that. Could all have been coincidence I suppose.
83. Interesting. I have always thought he has been not so good for England because of an insistence on playing him with Lampard. Inevitably one has to play out of position and that usually was Gerrard. can see the sulky thing tho.
No, no, no.
You misunderstand.
What he meant to say was “My Family are not TORY props”.
See?
All the difference…
87. S&S - they are measuring two different things. Employment isn’t just the mirror image of unemployment - you can have situations where both are rising simultaneously, e.g. if the labour force is rising very quickly.
FWIW the financial markets tend to put most weight on payrolls as an indicator of overall labour market conditions, which I think is broadly correct.
91 - Absolutely, total coincidence I’m sure. A bit like it is a total coincidence that Gordo has had a road to Damascus conversion to AV and decided to do a prime time interview with a party supporter, only a few weeks before a GE.
FA confirm Terry no longer captain.
89- Yes, and the following passage makes the tea leaves seem even less legible:
“The unemployment rate fell from 10.0 to 9.7 percent in January, and nonfarm payroll employment was essentially unchanged (-20,000), the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment fell in construction and in transportation and warehousing, while temporary help services and retail trade added jobs.
The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks and over) continued to trend up in January at +203.000, reaching 6.3 million. Since the start of the recession in December 2007, the number of long-term unemployed has risen by 5.0 million.
The nonfarm payroll number for December was revised downward from -85,000 to -150,000
The continued growth in temporary help is indicative of how worried employers are about the current recovery , that is, they continue to use temporary help rather than bringing on new permanent help.”
http://www.economicpolicyjournal.com/2010/02/breaking-down-unemploymnet-numbers.html
Sounds like its Ferdinand.
94- Thanks, there is certainly more to it than meets the untrained eye. Adding it all up, it seems like a meekly budding recovery taking a few baby steps, but miles and miles away from the sort of economy that people will feel good about. It’s those long-term unemployed plus the record unemployment among young people just starting out that worry me the most.
98. Yes, He’s said there’s no need to change his mind having chosen a vice captain (Ferdinand). However, he also said he’d already made a third choice - I can’t see that reported anywhere at the time.
Anyone know who his third choice was?
Italian stock market falls over 2% in last hour of trading.
Portuguese Parliament to vote today on opposition proposal to increase regional spending by 50 billion Euro before 2013 (Azores, Madeira). If government lose vote this could be the straw that breaks the financial markets’ backs.
Dow just holding below 10000 waiting for clear directions.
Crisis averted? Who knows.
99. That’s a fair comment. We are close to a turning point now, so there are plenty of cross-currents in the data. We are are still largely in the dark as to how quick improvements from here will be.
Ideally it will be Barry or Gerrard and Ferdinand won’t be back in time for the Egypt match.
Then I win twice.
The leader of Plaid Cymru’s MPs claims he has a memo showing Tony Blair and George Bush struck a secret deal to invade Iraq a year before the war.
Elfyn Llwyd told the BBC’s Straight Talk he had written to Iraq Inquiry chair Sir John Chilcot to say he would be prepared to hand the document over.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8501131.stm
Good friends should always share their women. Picasso said that he couldn’t call a man a real friend until they’d both f*cked each other’s wives, and no one particularly cared.
Wise man, Picasso.
103. Being reported that Gerrard is the No3. and hence new vice captain.
One of the big betting news stories of the moment is that Jon Cruddas has pretty much confirmed that he is in the race to be next Labour leader. By buying on Sporting Index, you can still get odds of 47/3 (you can get 14/1 with William Hill, Paddy Power and Coral). If Labour lose and Jon Cruddas holds his seat, those odds will shorten sharply.
107 - Hopefully he / New Statesman work out where he really lives by the time he throws his hat into the ring! Is it Notting Hill or Dagenham?
97. I am as bemused by these conflicting and ever changing numbers as you are, S&S.
It just proves to me thing; that when governments want to hide things they fiddlethe stats and obfuscate on every thing else.
With the DOW slipping below 10,000 this afternoon/morning, (take your pick), it does seem as if a double dip recession is not far off from beginning, if it hasn’t started already.
Meanwhile I’m keeping an eye on the Northern Trust Open, (Golf you know), and see if my chosen picks will pay dividends today.
So it’s Rio ‘Forgetful’ Ferdinand?
Lets hope he remembers to turn up to the world cup better than he remembers drug tests.
More porkers (crossbenchers) to the trough announced:
http://news.parliament.uk/2010/02/new-members-of-the-lords-announced/
so did anyone at the sun know more?
http://waugh.standard.co.uk/2010/02/john-terrys-front-page.html
112 - Waugh really is on the ball with stuff…If only more of our lazy media took a leaf out of his book.
Oh dear.
Jonah has just wished the England team well at the World Cup.
109- Watching golf seems a much more rewarding pastime than trying to follow the employment numbers, right about now.
Tony Blair’s expenses claims
Legg’s review period was 1 April 2004 to 31 March 2009. It seems strange that in his report Legg does not just omit to comment on Blair’s claims but fails to give any explanation regarding this. While we were earlier told the records have gone missing the Fees Office must have had some record of the actual expenses amounts (if any) paid to Blair.
For all those on here who are saying that Brown has not withdrawn the whip from the three Labour MPs charged today while Cameron acted decisively with the one Tory Peer that was charged, may I point out that the three Labour MPs had the whip withdrawn last June when these allegations first surfaced.
As things stand under the present circumstances, Brown has done all he can by suspending the Labour MPs concerned from the Parliamentary Party and barring them from standing as Labour candidates in the forthcoming General Election.
What is needed is a law, proposed by the Liberal Democrats and, as I understand it, supported by Labour in the form of amendments to the Constitutional Bill currently before Parliament, to recall such MPs through Constituents’ Ballot and force by-elections.
117. Eh? One of the MP’s introduced a bill in the house this morning. He has not been suspended from anything.
117. cont…
Have the Labour three had the whip suspended?
Nearly six hours have elapsed since news broke of the proposed action by the Crown Prosecution Service against three Labour MPs and a Tory peer for alleged criminal offences arising from their handling of Parliamentary expenses. I’m wondering whether or not the Labour three will now have the whip suspended/withdrawn.
As Chief Whip in Hackney in 1995, I was given clear guidance when a then member of the Labour Group faced criminal charges to invite the member concerned to resign the whip pending consideration of the charges in court. When the person concerned refused, the whip was withdrawn
http://petergkenyon.typepad.com/peterkenyon/2010/02/have-the-labour-three-had-the-whip-suspended.html
117. Richard Whelan
Cameron was pushing for “recall” last May.
Probably posted, but I missed it..
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brown-didnt-care-about-expenses-ndash-only-himself-1889932.html
‘One insider described his behaviour as “unforgivable” and told Mr Price that No 10 “isn’t a very nice place for people to work. However bad it sometimes seems from the outside, it’s far, far worse from the inside.”‘
117 This BBC report says Morley for one hasn’t had the whip withdrawn - despiote being suspended from the Party…
http://news.bbc.co.uk/nol/ukfs_news/mobile/newsid_8040000/newsid_8049000/8049096.stm
Portugese govt defeated on regional finance bill.
Oops
From 121
“[Brown]is psychologically and emotionally incapable of leadership of any kind”.
The Labour party should be shot for letting this man take the post of PM without so much as a quibble.
The troughers are very lucky… the Terry story will swamp anything else today.
A good day to bury bad news.
116. Well ‘theyworkforyou’ have:
http://www.theyworkforyou.com/mp/tony_blair/sedgefield
123: Oh cripes…
117 - I believe Brown said in his speech at the conference last year that a recall law would be introduced.
It hasn’t. Surprise sur-bloody-prise.
Greek stocks fall over 4% today and over 9% on the week.
Oil falls to below $70/barrel in last hour.
Focus on Greece, Spain, Portugal and Ireland. When does the spotlight turn to the UK? We are next on the list.
for the more idle
http://www.theyworkforyou.com/mp/tony_blair/sedgefield#expenses
Gordon will have to remove the whip from the 3 mps immediately or there will be calls of ‘weak and dithering’ (again) from Cameron.
Can’t see them holding on to the ‘AV’ vote - that will be just before PMQ’s and lead to the irony and charge of ‘the prime minister was trying to gerrymander the AV vote’
105 “Wise man, Picasso.”
Hmmmm….always thought he was a bit of a dratsab myself, SeanT. Didn’t treat his mate Casagemas too well.
Good painter though. But then so was Casagemas.
52 – S&S Hhmm…. Ideological, tin ear, poor sense of what can be realistically achieved, weak in the salesmanship department, egotistical, incapable of dealing with failure, out of touch with electorate and reality….
Are you talking about Barack Obama or Gordon Brown?
123 timmo
Another country in denial. No wonder the markets are nervous. How hard do they need to kick to get the mules to move?
At least Ireland - although struggling - seems to be moving in the right direction.
129. The only thing saving the UK from PIIGS type market-pressure is the sheer size and importance of the UK economy.
In a way the UK is like RBS - to big to fail. The 5th/6th/7th largest economy in the world, with a globally traded reserve currency, home to arguably the greatest financial centre on the planet, with massive investments worldwide.
If the UK went under - defaulted - then the ramifications would be hideous and wildly unpredictable: the entire capitalist system might collapse. Oo-er.
*salts popcorn and waits*
the uea climate changerers story continues,
http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8500443.stm
large jump in scepticism, nothing to do with Brwon’s 100 days to save the world jonah effect?
135. buys AK47 and ammo….
Gordon Brown opines that he hopes people will abide by the decision of Mr Cappello.. errr..?!?
105 - SeanT re Picasso
Got a source for that quote? Could come in handy for something I’m working on
Bloomberg: “Euro facing existential problems” as it approaches the ‘psychological’ barrier of €1.36:$1.
129. Seth - We aint strapped up to the Euro. I think that might just be the saving grace although a failing Euro isn’t going to help exports.
139 - Blimey, Father Finton! What’s her name?
Seth-The trouble with some of the club-med countries is that they think the problem will either just go away or that the cavalry will come to the rescue.There is no history of fiscal responsibility.Many of these countries got into the euro far too easily and to be fair to the Germans they didnt want them in.They didnt even want the Italians in in the first round of entrants.
The cement though are the French.They will not allow the Euro dream to fail but they are going to have a massive bust up with the Germans before they will prevail.
I agree with you on the Irish at least trying.I dont think the real political will exists with the club meds..
Next week could be a bit of a rout.
Fear has started to take hold.
139. Fraid not. You’ll have to Google. But I am pretty sure it exists - I think the more precise phrasing used by Picasso was: “I can’t consider a man a true friend until we have shared a woman”, or something like that.
I have read several Picasso biographies - the major ones - so it is probably in one of those. Hope that helps.
140 - I’m probably being thick here, but what’s psychologically important about €1.36:$1?
143. The Germans will not bail out the Greeks or the Portuguese, no matter how much the French wail. It would be political suicide for any German politician to say to his/her taxpayers: you must suffer so the Greeks can avoid paying their own debts.
Germany has gotten over her wartime guilt (guilt which was in many ways the glue which bound the EU together). They don’t feel obliged to knuckle under as once they did. And good luck to them.
I suspect the Greeks or the Portuguese will just have to do an Ireland, or be ejected from the eurozone. I just can’t see the political will for a bail-out.
Alternatively, the Germans will demand the right to run the Greek economy: also impossible.
The big figure in that BBC climate poll is
Climate change is happening and is now established as largely man-made - 26% Feb 10 (41% Nov 09)
145
It’s one of those nonsense things market watchers invent to rationalise the irrational. The Euro was launched at 1:1 with the dollar, so has a way to go before panic should set in.
121 how many more of these stories before the msm start taking attention or will it be 2 for 1 discount in waterstones !
Ireland seems to be holding out much better despite its appalling public finances than Greece and Spain… a bit of a lesson to be learned there methinks.
145 Sir Norfolk
It’s like going up or down a ladder. The rung above and below is temporarily granted ‘psychological’ status.
That’s journalism for you!
The currency traders on the board may know better. I think the $1.36 level was the pre-announced bottom range of the ECB, but I don’t have a linked source for this assertion. So don’t take it as gospel.
150-Ireland has been helped today at least by the agreement at Hillsborough which at least will engender confidence.Also they are an economy which historically is very adaptable,far more so than Greece,Portugal or even Italy.Ntionalism has always been the Irish problem not industrial relations as in club-med land
150.
The lights are going out all over Europe. We shall not see them lit again in our lifetime.
117 Richard Whelan “… may I point out that the three Labour MPs had the whip withdrawn last June when these allegations first surfaced.”
Why don’t you check the websites of the 3 MPs? Elliot Morley’s is here
http://www.elliotmorley.co.uk/
Notice anything — like the Labour red rose logo, for example, — or his description as a Labour MP — or links to the Labour party in teh sidebar. Certainly, if the whip was withdrawn last June, you might have expected the Labour party to ask him to up-date his webpage, and remove such affiliations.
In fact, your are just wrong. The whip was not withdrawn from Elliot or anyone — the 3 MPs were merely barred from holding office in the PLP (a much milder sanction)
Soerhaps you would like to retract your piece of disinformation masquerading as a posting @ 117?
Just looked at PoliticsHome for the first time in ages. Don’t think I will bother again. From having everything clear on one page it has ended up like the Daily Mail webpage - a complete mess of stories/opinions and video feeds.
Can someone with “News Sense” tell us if this is a story…
http://bastardoldholborn.blogspot.com/2010/02/breaking-blair-lied-at-chilcot.html
146 Sean T
yep, the best thing that can happen to the EU is the current generation of Germans getting past the “we have to pay for everyone else’s cock ups” war guilt thing. Some of the current generation of politicians are beginning to question the continued centralisation of the EU and how it fits in with the federal structure of Germany.
146. “Alternatively, the Germans will demand the right to run the Greek economy: also impossible.”
They ran it fairly successfully between 1941 and 1944, in spite of local ingratitude.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Axis_occupation_of_Greece_during_World_War_II
There may even be a few old hands around who can remember how to do it.
‘to be fair to the Germans they didnt want them in’
I think that’s not correct - they could have stopped it easily enough, but they chose not to.
The German public, of course, didn’t want the euro at all. Not that their views counted for anything.
German (French/Dutch/Swedish/British) taxpayers bailing out Greek politicians is political suicide for the German (French/Dutch/Swedish/British) government.
Greek austerity, whether home or foreign designed, will lead to rioting in Athens and institutional chaos.
Greece turfed out of the Euro will lead to rioting in Athens and institutional chaos.
There is no happy ending for this story. Perhaps the ECB will discover the joy of monetising debts?
On the price of the Euro: if it rapidly depreciates this will concern those sensible Germans, but delight the corporatist French. I don’t think it will mean much unless it falls below parity with the dollar (at which point the yanks will probably depreciate).
146 One thing which the media don’t seem to have picked up (or, at least, they don’t seem to be emphasising) is that the Greek and Portuguese problems will surely put the final kibosh on Turkey’s application to the EU (which automatically requires signing up to the Euro).
I can’t see the big Eurozone countries wanting to expand the currency’s reach in that direction after this lot, and the Turks may also be having second thoughts.
156 - The BBC are running with it as well
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8501131.stm
Which as it was on one of their progs that the allegation is made - that is hardly surprising
One aspect of the whole EU project (imo) was the French using it as a way of getting another empire and using German war-guilt to pay for it. Hard to believe the krauts could be dumb enough to keep putting up with this.
156 - That clearly is not a news story. Everyone has known for years that if Tony Blair tells you the time you should check your own watch.
Is the whip usually withdrawn before a trial?
What happened with Ahmed, Archer and Brazier?
163 MrJones
they won’t be. I’ve worked many years in Europe and the one thing that doesn’t fit is the German business approach and the French one.
156 - It does seem a bit odd. If he has a ’smoking-gun’ document, why doesn’t he just sent a copy to Sir John?
159-The reason i said that the Germans didnt want the Italians in was because i was trading BTPs(Italian Govt Bond Futures)on the Liffe floor in the 90s and for a few years there was a decoupling between the Bund and the BTP.The Bundesbank were not happy about Italy joining the Euro in phase1 but were still recovering from the disastrous financial reunification strategy that the German Govt took in 1989/90 when they converted Deutchemarks with Ostmarks at 1 to 1.
The Italians wooed the French and the deal was done.
There then followed a massive closing of BTP rates to Bund rates on which a lot of people(not me)made a lot of money.
documents like that can be very useful for another party
126 - I enjoyed this on Tony Blairs profile:
Occasionally rebels against their party.
hehe
167
Official Secrets Act? In which case would Parliamentary Privilege do the job?
And just notice the Pound has fallen 5 cents against the dollar in just 3 days. Blimey.
161. Turkish EU membership has been an impossibility for a decade or more. And everyone knows it, apart from some desperate westernised Turks, and some leftists/Muslims already in the EU. They are just going through the motions to save face on all sides.
For a start, several countries have already guaranteed their citizens a yes/no referendum on Turkish accession. Including Austria and France. I cannot foresee either of these countries agreeing to the EU accession of a nation of 80 million Muslims anytime between now and eternity.
I feel sorry for the secular, Europeanised Turks. But them’s the facts.
And in other news - remember that knicker stealing mayor?
He’s got two years. His photo sums him up really
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/lancashire/8501032.stm
167 RN
well if it does turn out to be true, it should make Tony’s return to woo the middle ground a lot more interesting! Frankly I thought he had more sense than to return to politics given how much luck he has had to date. He shouldn’t assume his good luck will last forever - look at the current incumbent.
143 - ‘Many of these countries got into the euro far too easily and to be fair to the Germans they didnt want them in.’
I remember speaking to a German in Munich shortly before the Euro came into being. He was, of course wrongly, utterly convinced that Greece wasn’t going to be joining, so I wonder if the fact wasn’t widely publicized.
171-it fell 30 cents against the dollar between sep and november 2008
Tim, what happend to
“We do, as a new Government, have to be extremely careful after 18 years in opposition…that we are purer than pure, that people understand that we will not have any truck with anything that is improper in any shape or form at all.”
http://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Tony_Blair
133- Perhaps the worst thing I could say about Obama is that even I overestimated him. Of all the weaknesses he might have had, I have been astonished at his complete inability to harness the power of the majorities he has in Congress. This is a failure of leadership like nothing I’ve seen before in a president. Perhaps people should have paid closer attention to his lifetime of avoiding paper trails and decisions, avoiding tough calls, and basically avoiding leadership like the plague.
173 Plato
yes that should do the vote for Independents no end of good. Someone should ask Esther if this is a typical of what we can expect in Parliament.
173 - liked this:
Preston Crown Court heard how he would creep into their bedrooms and search drawers for the underwear, before carrying out a sex act.
Where did he carry it to?
165 Usually what happens is that the MP announces that — whilst charges are pending — he or she will not take the whip to prevent embarrassing the party.
But, the Labour Party is now a dunghill. So, who cares whether there are three more or less vermin running about the place.
172 I agree, Sean, but lots of people have been in denial about this.
Mind you, there’s a certain irony in advancing the argument “several countries have already guaranteed their citizens a yes/no referendum”.
And the yield curve on UK Gilts is steepening quite sharply. Markets are starting to price in inflation. Pleasure delayed is pleasure denied.
What is pain delayed?
150. The Irish government’s latest budget was well received, the government has signalled that it is prepared to take tough action to resolve the budget deficit. As long as they stay on that course then Ireland will be fine. There will be serious electoral consequences though!
184 OS
plus a few economic ones.
#135
Digs hole and jumps in it.
182. For sure, I see the irony. But a referendum on a complex constitutional change is a much easier thing to weasel out of (don’t we know it) than a referendun on the accession of a huge Muslim country to the EU - which is a very basic Yes/No question.
I do not believe any government which has already promised a vote would be able to duck its commitment.
But this is hypothetical anyway. The negotiations on Turkish membership will either drag on fruitlessly for generations or be quietly abandoned. Everyone knows its a non starter.
167 Why not just send it to Wikileaks?
173 - I know that once you get past the juvenile humour potential, this was a rather unpleasant offence. But doesn’t two years in prison seem a shade harsh given the sentences given out for some other offences?
184 - The Irish government was in serious electoral do-do long before the last budget. In fact the last budget might have given them a little bit of credibility.
180 Why do we get this pointless reporting about “a sex act”? If the mayor had a w**k, why not tell us?
Pretty much no-one who is still a floating voter will change their mind over Iraq. Pretty much no-one who is still a floating voter will change their mind over expenses.
It’s the leadership, stupid.
180 - They kept their sex acts in drawers? Now that’s just asking for trouble, really.
189 - This was burglary with a sexual element. I’d say the sentence was spot on.
191 - When mayors do it, it isn’t called “having a wank” as you so crudely put it. The proper term is “engaging enthusiastically in civic duties”.
Yoffy lifts a finger, and a mouse is there.
Ukraine and Serbia will join the EU before Turkey does IMO. Not sure I agree that is right or fair as I’m a bit of a turkophile, but there you go. If we are brutally honest, Turkey has it’s problems:
-It hasn’t settled the Kurdish question.
-It is effectively two countries: East and West.
-It has ambitions for regional hegemony that are incompatible with pliant EU membership.
-It’s currency is a basketcase, even by the standards of SE Europe.
-Some 20% of the population is illiterate (oftopofmehead)
-It’s legal system wouldn’t last 2 minutes when faced with the ECJ.
197. You forget this one: also it is overwhelmingly Muslim, with a conservative Muslim government.
France has just banned the burqa, Switzerland minarets. Turkey will never join the EU.
156 - That clearly is not a news story. Everyone has known for years that if Tony Blair tells you the time you should check your own watch. by antifrank February 5th, 2010 at 5:29 pm
Presumably to ensure its still attached to your wrist?
197 - I was once told by a Serb: “by the time we join the EU, you’ll have left”. He may well be right.
196 puts his hands together, and a seagull takes the air
Happy days.
Dyed = Professor Yaffle
198 - Switzerland isn’t in the EU.
194 - Although it was burglary in the technical sense, he didn’t break into the properties or endanger people. It’s all very unpleasant of course, but I’m not sure there is a strong public interest in locking him away for an extended period.
There may of course be facts we aren’t aware of here, but it just seems to me a shorter sentence and psychiatric treatment might be more appropriate.
Yoffy lifts a finger, and a scampi darts about.
A scampi darts about???
How do we know Fingerbobs wasn’t some weird Jewish conspiracy to hypnotise gentile children with sinister fingerpuppets?
Look at the guy who presented it. Yoffy:
http://www.thechestnut.com/finger/yoffy.jpg
Tell me that isn’t some rabbi out of the shtetl, disguised as a Canadian toymaster, and I’ll give you a bagel.
165. “Is the whip usually withdrawn before a trial?”
See 119.
As Chief Whip in Hackney in 1995, I was given clear guidance when a then member of the Labour Group faced criminal charges to invite the member concerned to resign the whip pending consideration of the charges in court. When the person concerned refused, the whip was withdrawn
203 If someone I trusted stole my undies and wanked in the drawer - I think I’d be a) alarmed b) feel revolted c) think he was even creepier than he looks.
2yrs seems rather OTT - I’d rather someone that sad did hundreds of hours of Community Service/had treatment for it. Sticking him in prison won’t put anyone off doing the same IMO.
Never is a very long time. Empires, whether cultural, political, military, economic, or indeed religious have two unifying characteristics. They are hegmonic and expansionist.
Once Iceland, Ukraine, Serbia, Montenegro, Macedonia are in, the only way to go is east or south. Or the EU breaks up. Stasis is not an option.
172 - You’re right of course - Turkey will NEVER EVER EVER EVER be a member of the EU because if everyone else changes their mind the Austrians won’t; the 2nd siege of Vienna is never far from the surface in how the Viennese look at the world - they are proud of their role in stopping the Ottoman Empire - sit in Cafe Diglas eat a Mohr im Hemd and reflect on what Europe would look like now without the Holy League’s intervention
197 astateofdenmark
Turkey may have its problems, but they do they differ from certain EU Members. I can think of one: :
- that hasn’t settled the Scottish question.
- that is effectively two countries: North and South.
- that has ambitions for national autonomy that is incompatible with pliant EU membership.
- whose currency is a basketcase, even by the standards of SE Europe.
- that has some 20% of the population is broken (oftopoftheirhead)
- whose legal system wouldn’t last 2 minutes when faced with the ECJ.
Turkey should be encourage by this precedent.
With Sion Simon on his way, the New Statesman needed a new muppet. Up pops David Lammy.
Gordon Brown, Peter Mandelson and Harriet Harman will all still be there after the election, but they have carried the rest of us for too long now.
http://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/the-staggers/2010/02/baby-boomers-generation-labour
Is this veiled criticism of the Cabinet? Will Lammy make a play for the Leadership?
Is this “move over old codgers, you don’t know what you’re doing anymore, we youngsters are coming through and we do know what we’re doing”.
Clearly being of the Gen X (sic) generation he doesn’t remember the dawning of the ‘Age of Aquarius’ or does he?
When the moon is in……..
203 Sir Norfolk
I understand he welcomed the long sentence.
He is now in HMP Holloway.
209
I did think of that whilst typing, but as SeanT points out by inference, our faults are overlooked where Turkey’s will be pulled to pieces. Because it’s a muslim country. It’s a sad fact. For now.
206 cont…
I had a gardener/handyman who must have been very embarrassed…
I couldn’t understand why I kept finding bras and knickers covered in mud behind the front door when I came home from work - the poor fellow was posting them back through the letterbox after my doggies were raiding the laundry basket and leaving them around the garden
210 - “Will Lammy make a play for the Leadership?”
Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha!!!!!!!
204 there was a short kid at school we used to call the Finger Mouse - always taking the lanky girls behind the bike sheds like some freaky inverse Krankies thing.
Bagpuss and Yaffle would have never stood for that sort of nonsense. It’s what happens when hippies are allowed to tell stories to children.
211 - Assigned to the prison laundry room?
I’d imagine the growth of the muslim voting bloc inside the EU would have an impact on the accession of country’s like Syria, Algeria, Turkey etc. Though it doesn’t seem likely while the financial crisis is ongoing.
208. Like the French and Charles Martel, and the battle of Poitiers.
207. The EU will go east and north. Belarus. Moldova. Faroes. Norway. Of course eventually it will crumble as all empires must, but I’m guessing it will never absorb a large Muslim country. And empires are not that short lived if their territories are contiguous: America as an empire has lasted quite well… China even…
206. I agree. He seems a sad but undangerous man. He is now utterly humiliated, will forever be shamed, and is probably on suicide watch. Two years in jail for p@nty-stealing, on top of that, seems excessive. Three months and community service. Poor sad gusset-clutching old coot.
217 Syria and Algeria??? Well, I suppose Israel has been participating in Eurovision for decades…
214. Neil exactly but read the article its all ‘we dont need those old fuddy duddies - we are the Gen X crowd’.
Lammy is such a tw@
216 Sir Norfolk
I missed that!
I do agree with you on the sentence. A candidate for psychiatric assistance rather than prison, where I guess he will be mercilessly bullied.
Brown lapping up the photo call in NI now on BBC World
Grrrr
222 - You are disappointed that a deal was reached?
218. The bigger the EU becomes the less it delivers. It isn’t really an empire because it doesn’t have any colonies. It just absorbs them into the homeland, where they undermine its integrity. The rot started, but didn’t end, with Greece.
I don’t suppose the USA would be in keen to admit Mexico, Haiti or Colombia and give them each a printing press so they can knock out their own dollar bills.
I think we have a rare moment of pb concord: we all agree that the underwear-embezzling mayor from Lancashire has possibly been treated with somewhat undue severity.
I suggest a campaign.
Ameliorate the sentence of the Preesall panty mayor! Slightly reduce the jailtime of the Fleetwood Knicker-blagger! Etc.
219 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Union_for_the_Mediterranean
I think we have a rare moment of pb concord: we all agree that the underwear-embezzling mayor from Lancashire has possibly been treated with somewhat undue severity.
I suggest a campaign.
Ameliorate the sentence of the Preesall p@nty mayor! Slightly reduce the jailtime of the Fleetwood Knicker-blagger! Etc.
I maybe unbelievably cynical about politicians and politics, but Gordon Brown’s interview in the Evening Standard today, complete with pictures of self and Sarah, (not of course using family as political prop), and comments such as
We had our daughter only for 10 days and I remember every single moment of that probably more vividly than anything else.” Brown has managed to find positive things from Jennifer’s short life. “Because we had the joy of her as well as the loss, I think it hurts to talk about it sometimes. But Sarah and I have set up this charity that is to do with some of the medical problems that were raised by what happened to Jennifer.
raises my suspicions, given Brown’s track record. I would not for a moment discount or minimize the pain he and Sarah went through, but why do this interview now, coming up on the anniversary of the death of Ivan Cameron? Is there some cynical opportunistic calculation in play here, or am I being unreasonably cynical?
218. And empires are not that short lived if their territories are contiguous:
The USA became a federalised nation because it basically replaced the indigenous population with immigrants. Basically it wiped the slate clean and started again (as did New Zealand and Australia and many moons ago as did the Anglo-Saxons in England).
The USSR didn’t and only lasted 80 years. OK 1000 years ago Rome was able to control 60 million people for 400 years before it collapsed but that was a millenia ago. The EU is trying to control 500 million plus people in possibly the most complex patchwork of culture, heritage, legacy and social complexity outside the middle east. Chances are it won’t be here at the turn of the 22nd century.
If I am lucky I will see it die before I do……
226 - I wish to stand outside this concord.
224. The founding fathers of the USA were many of them slave owners. They certainly never envisaged a time when “negroes” would have the vote, with all that meant for American democracy.
Nor, I imagine, did they envisage a time when whites would be outnumbered within America, as will happen within 50 years.
America has her own enormous faultlines, just as bad as Europe - arguably worse in some respects.
227. I’m afraid that you’re right. What a sh*t.
229 antifrank
Don’t be concerned.
The borders are elastic.
227. Tim B
I maybe unbelievably cynical
No you are not. Brown’s setting up all the questions for all those sad sofa interviews (starting with Morgan) that no doubt his little helpers are setting up. It going to be quite gut wrenching. Get yourself a bucket…..
You’re so vain, I bet you think this tweet is about you.
The Kaiser’s Toilet is reporting that some poor sod over at Tory HQ has the unfortunate job of namesearching for David Cameron all day on Twitter and Facebook.
Whether that person is employed by the Conservative party or is actually David Cameron himself indulging in a spot of search engine onanism is unclear.
Marcus Brown observes that not only did the initial Tweet lead to visits from Conservative HQ, but every subsequent retweet is sending Conservative party ISP visits too.
http://www.techeye.net/internet/david-cameron-employs-twitter-stalkers
Can someone please explain to me why - in the Political Betting archives - there were no comments for any of the articles published from March 7th 2004 to March 27th 2004?
223.Neil, missed that, could you point to where the poster either proffered an opinion on the deal reached, or why you needed to ask him if he was disappointed? I don’t think being annoyed at an unpopular PM turning up for an opportunistic photo call counts.
227 - “am I being unreasonably cynical?”
I dont think unreasonably cynical quite covers it. The man is a human being, not some kind of monstrous freak. Do try to treat your political opponents like people sometimes.
227. ‘I being unreasonably cynical?’
Possibly.
But I am afraid its exactly what went through my mind when he raised it at this juncture.
210 “Will Lammy make a play for the Leadership?”
The photo is of the likely contender - reason why Harperson has no chance after the election as he’d take most of her potential supporters.
Also a possible contender for the mayor imo.
236 - Just wanted to know is all.
227 No - I think you are exactly right.
Jennifer Brown died 8 yrs ago on 8th January at ten days old.
Ivan Cameron died 25th Feb last year aged 6.
Whilst both are tragic - I know what emotion springs out from the Gordon intv
241 - How nasty.
re 237. I agree with Neil here. One of Brown’s best moments in 2009 was the way he responded to Ivan’s death. It felt genuine and authentic.
227/8 - Equally it may be regarded as cynical by some that Cameron attempts to use child deaths and torture for his own political purposes around the time of both his and Browns bereavement.
It works both ways this sort of opinion Tory boys and girls.
No silly questions about if he has spoken to peter watts, gordon’s own expense claims, how is jogging programme was interrupted by snow, doncaster social services, poor economic performance, damascene conversion to AV or how AV stops milking the expense system, or why he ran to northren Ireland with his tail between his legs.
http://uk.news.yahoo.com/4/20100205/video/vhd-prime-minister-backs-capello-over-te-686f718.html
However Brown can talk about the stripping of the captaincy.
However, Brown can still find time
237 ‘Do try to treat your political opponents like people sometimes.’
Browns track record suggests he can treat his own side like people. The McBride emails suggest there are no depths that can’t be plumbed when it comes to his opponents.
The cycnisism Brown attracts is a monster of his own creation and is not deserving of pity.
244 - Is it that hard to keep politics in perspective? Is it a Friday afternoon thing?
240.Yeah, whatever.
246 CAN’T treat his own side as people.
237. Neil Who said this at the Party Conference in 2008?
Some people have been asking why I haven’t served my children up for spreads in the papers. And my answer is simple. My children aren’t props, they’re people.
So now we have a clarification do we - except when there is a General election in the offing?
246 - Justify your reaction to that interview to yourself however you want to.
re 244. I think that is a nasty smear Tim. You’ve exhausted your ration today on that subject.
247 - I agree with your earlier post, I was putting in perspective how the shallower Tories on here can’t see that both Cameron and Brown have lost children, yet for them thats another stick to attack Brown with.
242 Not nasty - it was my reaction to it.
Gordon ‘I don’t use my family as props’, ‘I was brought up to always tell the truth’ and ‘I don’t do celebrities’ are patently untrue.
A politician cannot play the heart-string/morality card opportunistically - it’s the lowest form of spin.
237 The man is a human being, not some kind of monstrous freak.
You might get some argument on that one, Neil..
Do try to treat your political opponents like people sometimes.
If you read what I actually wrote, I was posing a question, not making a statement.
Slagging me off and over-reacting like that says rather more about you than it does of me.
In addition, Brown has lots of form for cynical and vicious political maneuvering, hence the question.
227.
Tim B.
No you are not being cynical. Brown is once again using his family as props and previous loss for a sympathy vote!
He also thinks that using Blair during the GE campaign is going to help him!
The norm will occur, this will backfire on Brown as a cheap electioneering political stunt!
243 You know the basis of the Cameron emails.
Ivan was always going to die.
Those 2 things are difficult to reconcile.
253 - Did you have to do it in such an obviously provocative way though? You know exactly what type of reaction you’ll get to that type of post.
252 -You missed the point I was making see 253.
254 - It was a nasty reaction.
237 - in addition I said I would not for a moment discount or minimize the pain he and Sarah went through. That’s hardly calling him a monstrous freak, now is it?
258 - Sometimes its the only way to make them see their hypocrisy.
255 - Ah, you made your point in question form. That makes it all right then. Carry on.
Brown’s interview is irrelevant. His troughing, cash-for-cleaners, mismanagement of the economy, lies, alleged brutalisation of staff, foul manners, disgustingly slack personal appearance, inability to face reality on the required cuts, hypocritical conversion to a worse than FPTP system of voting and lack of proposing anything in the way of public sector reform or improvement in 2 and a half years in the job are more than enough reasons to hope he is destroyed utterly on a professional level and indeed that he is allowed nowehre near any cushy jobs on the world stage to continue his campaign to keep us all in a Carterian malaise forever.
Jaysus wept salty tears, will you all leave the kids out of it. If the people reading it react, let them react how they will.
In more important news, Sterling is now 1.55 to the dollar. That makes it 6 cents in 3 days.
262 - You know full well that the ones who react to you have little capacity for self-analysis. So why bother to wind them up every day? It does them no good and is no fun for anyone else.
246.SallyC, I agree. The contents of the McBride emails have never been fully disclosed, and if they are as bad as people like Mike Smithson have indicated, I don’t think that should be forgotten.
Did you read this article from Martin Bright?
Gordon Brown, Charlie Whelan and Me
OT For those interested in homeopathy
http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/2010/feb/05/homeopathy-false-evidence-parliamentary-inquiry
266 - You know full well that the ones who react to you have little capacity for self-analysis.
Fair enough.
243 - Mike, I agree - it was one of his finest moments. My question was not about whether Cameron’s loss was greater than Brown’s, - how can you possibly measure that - or casting any aspersion on Brown’s family in any way.
My question was simply that the timing of - not the fact of - the interview seemed a little suspicious.
267. Chris, I know a significant amount about the contents and I still can’t get my head round what sort of person is involved in such a thing.
245 Sadly he talks more sense about Big Brother, England captaincy, whatever that singer is called, etc than he talks about what he’s supposed to be looking after. The more I observe Brown the more of an intellectual lightweight he appears. I doubt we’ll ever get to the truth but Darling has at least one sale of his autobiography in the bag post the GE.
270. For me too, it was not the sentiment, just the timing.
Enough ****** baiting for now back to more important stuff…
Sir George Young goes fishing for the General Election date.
“On dates, this is the last time we shall have business questions until 25 February, and there is still no news of the Easter recess… Let me put to the right hon. and learned Lady a scenario on which I believe it might be sensible to proceed. I suggest that the Prime Minister will visit the palace on 29 March and announce the election, that the House will adjourn for the Easter recess on Maundy Thursday and not return, that Her Majesty will dissolve Parliament on 12 April, with a general election on 6 May, and that some of us will return for swearing in on 12 May. Would the right hon. and learned Lady like to confirm or deny that?”
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/parliament/2010/02/sir-george-young-invites-harriet-harman-to-dispute-his-predicted-timetable-for-the-general-election.html
263 - Neil, my question was about the timing of the interview. Simply “Why now?”. Not about his right to do this sort of interview - why should he not?
Of course he feels pain at losing a child - it’s an awful thing to happen to anyone.
272 there is something of a disconnect there. It is rather like these people who pop up every now and again to tell us what a personable fellow he is in private.
Perhaps his alleged brilliance in the noggin department is a crock as well.
The most over-polished turd in Christendom.
271 Do you think these will be used by those against Gordon and Co?
Lance Price has come out with a book, next is Mr Rawnsley - I wonder who else is planning to stick the boot in [apart from Guido who I assume has several wardrobes full of Labour skeletons].
Healthcare reform defeatism from Obama:
For the very first time, Obama is starting to sound as if he’s seen the writing on the wall on Obamacare… “After insisting for a year that failure was not an option, President Barack Obama is now acknowledging his health care overhaul may die in Congress. Obama: “And it may be that … if Congress decides we’re not going to do it [healthcare reform], even after all the facts are laid out, all the options are clear, then the American people can make a judgment as to whether this Congress has done the right thing for them or not,” the president said. “And that’s how democracy works. There will be elections coming up and they’ll be able to make a determination and register their concerns one way or the other during election time.”"
It is remarkable how Obama talks as if he is encouraging voters to punish his own party if they don’t pass Obamacare. But more importantly, it is a political mistake for the Democrats to protract this process any longer than necessary. If it is dead, admit it and move on; if it is alive, pass it and move on. Instead, it limps on in a zombie-like state, neither alive nor dead, with some Dems signaling they’ve given up while others insist it will happen. Why is this bad? If the Dems keep dragging this out, they will keep torturing their own supporters with disappointed reform expectations while keeping the right fired up about the issue. It’s better for them if they either pass it or let it die now, allowing them to at least try to move on to more solid ground. However, they seem too weak and divided to do either.
“hypocritical conversion to a worse than FPTP system of voting”
AV is about the BNP and SNP, though they’d only ever admit to the BNP part.
http://www.nextleft.org/2009/06/kellner-on-bnp-dont-do-something-sit.html
277.I suspect what I consider to be the very worst won’t come out for sometime. It’s difficult to explain. I am not going to try.
277. Well it will presumably give Cammo plenty of ammo at PMQ’s and I’m sure there will be plenty in the media and blogosphere who will pick up on some of it?
279. So it is nothing more than cynical manipulation of the electoral system. Figures… And when the Labour Party decide they want to stop another party presumably they will just change the voting system again?
I don’t agree that Browns reaction to Ivan Cameron’s death was “one of his finest moments”
Superficially his reaction was one of sympathy but if you look closely at his statements they were not simply expressions of sympathy for Cameron’s loss but a means of drawing attention to himself.
“I know what you feel, I’ve lost a child myself”, “I’ve been through it” was the general tone. One of expressing sympathy but also wishing to draw attention to himself and asking for sympathy as well.
It was not the first time either. He’s used a similar approach when talking of other peoples’ difficulties by drawing attention to his eye injury.
It’s a form of narcicism. And renders his words of sympathy much less worthy.
280 SallyC - without giving away details, if you had to compare what’s in the public domain with what you know - how would you rate it?
1 = about the same
10 = really hideous
278 - Stars - the democrats health care reform bill has been in a ‘zombie-like state’ since it became obvious in the early summer that the ‘public option’ was in trouble among the blue dogs, and the tea party protests and town hall meetings of the summer dropped public support over the cliff.
The problem from the beginning has been the fractured democratic party.
Could Tony Blair have lied to Chilcot?
Hat-Tip Old Holborn
The leader of Plaid Cymru’s MPs claims he has a memo showing Tony Blair and George Bush struck a secret deal to invade Iraq a year before the war.
Elfyn Llwyd told the BBC’s Straight Talk he had written to Iraq Inquiry chair Sir John Chilcot to say he would be prepared to hand the document over.
He says the memo, which is marked “Top Secret and Confidential” contradicts statements made by Ex-PM Mr Blair.
Mr Blair told the Iraq inquiry there had been no “covert” deal with Mr Bush.
Anyone watching Devine on C4? Blaming the fees office.
287 Damn - missed it!
Oh dear Devine sounds terrible on CH4 news.
287 What is the ‘decisive action’ that Gordon is taking?
I havent’ seen anything of note so far…
284. I haven’t seen the emails. It just what I have heard.
But I think the reaction to a particular area would be a significant increase in the sense of public revulsion.
Devine - Channel 4 plus one for me I think!
A couple of assessments of the London Council elections from Harry Phibbs and David Boothroyd:
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/localgovernment/2010/02/which-london-boroughs-could-the-tories-gain-in-may.html
http://www.indigopublicaffairs.com/index.php?mact=CGBlog,cntnt01,detail,0&cntnt01articleid=131&cntnt01returnid=103
ffs,if devine is the standard of our MP’s,were all fcuked
Devine seems to be saying that his invoice for stationery was actually used to pay staff, as advised by a Labour whip
devine,labour whip told him to do it,oh dear.
based only on what Jim Devine has said on Ch4, he hasn’t got a leg to stand on.
Devine sounds terrible, but it is clear that he is going to go down fighting. If he ends up in Crown, the legal disclosure process could be devastating.
And now he’s talking about those paying back five figure sums not being charged. Oh dearie dearie dear.
291 Thanks SallyC - will wait and see who dumps it on the web first.
All in all a hideous bit of political game-playing.
I sincerely hope we’ll never see the like of it again.
What struck me about the Evening Standard interview wasn’t the part about Brown’s daughter dying* but rather the part where he’s all like “Hey, I had nothing to do with Iraq, THAT WAS ALL TONY OK?” Also the part where he tells the interviewer that his bad handwriting is not his fault and it’s not his fault not because he’s blind, ALL RIGHT, it’s not his fault because he learned it that way in school, OK? HE’S NOT BLIND!!!!! AND HIS WIFE SAID HE SPELLED THE WORDS RIGHT!
* I did have to laugh a bit at the statement that “There is a finality about death”. No, really?
Fook me, he’s now saying this is normal in the Unions and Health Service!!!!!!! Choose your enemies…
290 Perhaps he meant to say ‘devisive’.
Then there’d be a long list.
Trouble ahead.
Caledonian Mercury - Labour MPs pushing boundaries in search for seats
“So, the game of Scottish Labour musical chairs looks like this: Ken McIntosh is trying to move from East Renfrewshire to South Renfrewshire, Hugh Henry is also trying to get the South Renfrewshire nomination, moving on from his current place in Paisley South. Wendy Alexander is trying to move from Paisley North to Paisley and Trish Godman from Renfrewshire West to North Renfrewshire.
Got it?
It doesn’t matter if you haven’t. The only thing to remember is that with Scottish Labour politics in west and central Scotland nothing is ever easy.”
guidofawkes My piece in tomorrow’s Times got a little-bit lawyered. Should still convey the gist: lock ‘em up. Heard nothing from Yeo yet, bring it on.
DOW has dived again now down to 9863. Down 138 on the day…
OMG, Devine on C4, and we let this man have a say on new laws!
This is what I got from the interview,
1) He falsely claimed money from the Communication Allowance to pay for staffing costs,
2) A Labour whip told him it was ok to do it. He wouldn’t mention their name, but sure he went CCCCHHHH….Whip….I think we should be told who is person is that goes around telling Labour MP’s to make false claims when they have spent all the money in one budget! I hope it wasn’t Gordo best buddy….
3) He seems to think he can’t possibly have broken the law, because he didn’t personally gain out of the transaction.
What a f##kin ret##d!
297 so Devine is proposing Gordon Brown be prosecuted?!
lol, rats in a sack
303 Hum. Damp squib warning?
‘Lawyered’ because he hasn’t got the proof….
For the record, although I regard Gordon Brown with utmost contempt, and am desperate for him and his government to be flushed, his comments at the despatch box on the occasion of Ivan Cameron’s death were in my opinion his finest moment as PM. It is the only occasion I can recall when I could watch the TV without the urge to throw things at him.
Re Devine
I wonder if his lawyer has just committed suicide!
173 Colin Jordan, the Fuhrer of the British Movement, had similar desires. He got a suspended sentence for stealing a pair of red lace panties from Marks & Spencer (this was particularly upsetting for his colleagues, who thought that any self-respecting Nazi wouldn’t set foot in M & S).
I remember a few years ago, the Mayor of Southend was convicted of sexually assaulting a dog.
And the Conservatives have chosen their Mayoral Candidate for Watford:
http://www.watfordobserver.co.uk/news/4992789.Tories_announce_mayoral_candidate_for_Watford/
Also from C4, Gordo quote on the matter was basically, I’m angry (what’s new) and they aren’t standing again, thats it, end of story. C4 then they pointed out that they were still free to vote…I’m sure Gordo won’t need them, will he?
302 We’ve had a few squabbles over Yorkshire seats aswell. Some fun and games in parts of Hull.
299 diane
“Also the part where he tells the interviewer that his bad handwriting is not his fault and it’s not his fault not because he’s blind”
But he could see fine until his rugby injury - I assume he could do joined up writing before this point?
289, he’s admitting to outright fraud, and claiming it was legal, because he didn’t personally benefit - but that’s not the test, as the judge will make clear. Claiming it was common practice in his previous jobs won’t impress either.
If he’s got the whip’s approval in writing, that would be explosive, but that’s pretty unlikely.
oldnat
More likely the lawyer is rubbing his hands together in gleeful anticipation of the large house to be bought on the proceeds of the futile, but lengthy, defence of his client.
Allegedly.
316 And aren’t MPs given legal fee assistance to fight their corner?
309. Well said.
Look, Maths was never my strong suite, but surely if there is a much larger swing to the Tories in the marginals, there must be much lower swings to them elsewhere? Where? Here in the E of E if you wanted me to call it from canvass data there is a small swing AGAINST them since the last GE. Opinions, ideas, anyone?
293 David Hill had a similar article on Comment is Free, in which he cited my article here a few months ago.
IMHO, the likeliest Conservative gains are Redbridge (lost, due to defections), Merton, and Sutton. The likeliest loss is Harrow.
How many of his colleagues has Devine just dropped in the ordure? Teams of journos now digging through receipts for “stationery” and asking questions about staffing budgets?
319 The MORI aggregate data implied a far lower than average swing to the Conservatives in seats the Conservatives already held.
On lawyers generally.
No reference to anything or anyone here.
But the greatest pressure as a defence lawyer [I am reliably informed] comes from representing someone on a serious life-changing matter when you think the person might actually be innocent.
Anything that takes that doubt anyway therefore, is viewed as something of a stress reliever.
Exclusive footage inside the bunker watching Devine on C4…..
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M8pR1rZZHEs&
If we put ourselves in Devine’s position, can we blame him? He is being scapegoated, picked on, humiliated, singled out and deserves it. What about the others? If anyone knows who is gaming the system, it will be the participants. Why should he take one for the team?
I wonder if it is a criminal offence in Scotland to issue a false receipt for the purposes of a theft being committed?
If so, the Procurator Fiscal in Livingston may be instructing Lothian Police to conduct an investigation that could result in even more Labour embarrassment.
324
I wonder who was the labour whip ?
#135 What happened the last time the UK defaulted?
…but it cannot be said to be true that the UK’s credit record is unblemished. In their brilliant book, “This Time Is Different”, Reinhart and Rogoff do not have Britain in their very short list of six nations that have never defaulted (New Zealand, Australia, Thailand, Denmark, Canada and the USA). There are (at least?) two instances of the UK defaulting…
http://www.bondvigilantes.co.uk/blog/2010/02/02/1265121060000.html
320. Reflecting
Here are the regional swings from the Mori aggregate data. Of course it doesn’t say what is happening in individual seats.
Lab > Con
East Midlands 11.00%
East 7.70%
London 8.50%
North East 10.70%
North West 7.70%
South East 8.70%
South West 8.60%
West Midlands 12.40%
Yorkshire 11.80%
Scotland 5.50%
Wales 9.10%
UK 9.50%
LD > Con
East Midlands 5.70%
East 5.80%
London 3.50%
North East 6.40%
North West 4.40%
South East 7.20%
South West 10.00%
West Midlands 5.30%
Yorkshire 6.80%
Scotland 6.40%
Wales 4.00%
UK 7.00%
322. Thanks. That ties up with what I’m seeing, but I’ve two Tory MPs here who seem to be getting a very strong swing against them. I’m beginning to think there are going to be very big differentials between seats.
What I want to know if he has been charged over this stationary business, but NOT the shelving and the electrical work…wonder why not?
Chaytor and Morley were both reported as having the Labour whip withdrawn late May 2009. Can’t find anything since saying they had it restored.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/global/2009/may/19/brown-expenses-deselection
Re 330 Those swings are in comparison to the 2005 GE
Oh and NEW THREAD
329. Interesting. see 330.
326. I suppose HMRC and the VAT mob may express an interest in the books of whoever issued the receipt. And frankly, I’d rather have the DPP chasing me than those two.
319 Reflecting
Which constituency?
There are not many Labour marginals in what I think of as the E of E.
Great by-election results there.
Canvassed a very different area today from yesterday, but got the same sort of low-level interest in expenses - one chap asked me politely if Legg had asked me to repay anything (no), and one woman said vaguely to another canvasser that she wasn’t sure how to vote “in all the current mess” - wasn’t clear if she meant expenses or what (no previous voting intention known). Have others had a different reaction in the last two days?
For those keenly interested in the PLP (lots of you, seemingly), this is the position for Elliot Morley - he’s been suspended but not expelled, pending his attempt to clear his name. He’s not entitled to attend PLP meetings unless he’s acquitted. Remind me how many Conservative MPs have been suspended for abuses that they’ve actually admitted? Oh, none. Good idea for Cameron to raise it at PMQs, eh? Obviously, if EM is convicted that *will* put it in a different category to cases where no prosecution was brought, but he’s entitled to the usual presumption of innocence.
279 - How you can be so blind I don’t understand, if you can’t work out what he’s doing then there’s no hope. You must just have a massive blind spot that’s all.
52 - Or reading that, maybe you just believe the misinformation put out from the right wing channels.
Yep, that’s it. Every single talking point blindly repeated without reference to reality.
This is most likely the first wave to be prosecuted. MP Eric illsley is also under investigation by the police and he still has the labour whip.
This is from this site, BUT before the 2005 Election.
Reading the full page http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2004/12/30/help-wanted/
You will just how good we were at our forecasts for the 2005 election.
A quick and dirty shufti through electoralcalculus.co.uk suggests that Con 35.33/Lab 34/ LD 20.4 would give a result of Labour 1 short - and the swing seat would be Birmingham Edgbaston (the only difference from Con 35.32/Lab 34/ LD 20.4 is Birmingham Edgbaston moving from Lab-Con).
Unfortunately, as we’re looking at 2 possible swings away from Labour to deal with (Lab-Con and Lab-LD) for such a prediction, there are many possible answers.
by Andy Cooke December 30th, 2004 at 4:36 pm