Populus reports a 10 point Tory lead
February 8th, 2010
CON 40% (41)
LAB 30 % (28)
LD 20 %(19)
Is Andy Cooke starting to have an influence?
The Populus poll for February is just out and provides further data which could be used to support the notion of a hung parliament.
But well done the Times in its report on the poll for raising the question of how much the standard projections can be relied upon.
Peter Riddell writes after giving the standard projection - “These estimates assume a uniform national swing, or switch, of votes, but, in practice, there are likely to be regional and local variations…Moreover, there is evidence that the Tories may be doing better in their key target seats which would mean an overall majority at this level of national support.”
For based on the Andy Cooke analysis tonight’s numbers would produce a range of 374 - 384 Tory seats with a 100% chance of a majority. That seat range would see Cameron home with a majority of about 100.
The poll also finds that voters are becoming more likely to believe that there will be a hung parliament - which is hardly surprising giving the way that almost all the media is reporting this.
Time to start buying the Tories?
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
Last
First?
No.
a beautifully neat projection 40/30/20/10
Probably in line with the vox pop as well - Labour at just above core, Tories holding the 40 line and Lib Dems poised to take advantage of the equalisaiton of coverage
lus history is available here:
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/voting-intention/populus
All looks rather similar to October. Pretty happy with that considering this was supposed to have been so bad for Cam in the past 4 weeks. 1 point off their vote share. Labour picking up a bit is the bigger story of the past few polls, which would be somewhat in line with what NPMP has been saying.
Weightings comment from Anthony Wells (not made in relation to this poll):
“As you can see, comparing Populus and ICM the figures are very similar to each other (and are pretty similar today) – Populus are slightly nicer to Labour and ICM and slightly nicer to the Lib Dems, a pattern that’s reflected in their poll findings, but the differences are small. ”
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/faq-weighting
And I would like to add that this is a very well written article, showing some real insight into polling.
The song remains the same…
Hung Parliament narrative PLUS Andy Cooke’s genius = Labour haters more inclined to vote = perfect storm for Labour?
It’s going to be close! Especially if the election is on the 8th April.
That’s what I’ve been told by a source that isn’t usually incorrect.
How much more sense these polls appear to make after reading Andy C’s exceptional articles.
Thanks and well done, Andy. That was a tour de force.
10% will give a very comfortable Tory majority.
So how much affect do people think the Police charges on Friday had upon these figures?
And is that effect likely to hold long term?
a hung parliament ought not to be possible with a 10 point lead.
Re 8 [YAWN]
“Time to start buying the Tories?”
Already there.
596 from the previous thread reflects the authentic view of the Lib Dem grass roots. That its no where near as “bad” as is being suggested by the national picture that the vote is holding up just below the Iraq 2005 level and that good ground wars can make gains from labour and see of by far the worst of the Tory surge.
I had a quick look and broke one of OGH laws of polling for a bit of fun and compared the scores from all the big 6 firms. The 3 party ratings are now all within margin of error of each other other than the MORI LD rating and the ARS labour rating. Everyone is roughly saying 40/30/20
Late on tonight so have the pleasures of the Andy Cooke thread with its 600 comments to come.
Looks from the two lead articles that tim should have closed out his Tory sells and Labour buys.
Wouldn’t want him to lose any money due to blind political allegiance.
8
I wish I knew someone with second sight.
11. I don’t think it’ll have had any effect.
OT, but of future interest. The Grauniad seems to think that Chilcot is going to make some waves…
What we appear to have learnt this afternoon is that US Secretary of State Colin Powell told Straw in early 2003 that the US was going to go to war come what may, that UN security council members were reluctant to back a second resolution, having gained this impression, and that Britain knew very well that France was not threatening to veto any such resolution but that Tony Blair and George Bush decided to blame the French anyway.
Straw, the man who backed the war but wants us to believe he was against it, tried to have it both ways at once, but eventually the weight of his contradictions caught up with him. Although most predictions were that Straw would be put under pressure over the legal issues, he was in most difficulty over the endgame: the failed attempt to get a second UN resolution to back the war – sorry, to secure Iraqi disarmament.
…
Lyne also asked whether Britain got calls from France on 11, 12 and 13 March 2003 to say that they were misinterpreting Chirac’s statement that France would veto a new resolution “whatever the circumstances”. The question was too detailed to be speculative – to be based on anything other than based on real evidence. Again, Straw could only try to put his gloss on the issue by claiming that the damage from Chirac’s comments was already done.
Finally, Lyne asked whether there was an agreement between No 10 and the White House on 12 March to blame the French for the failure to get a second resolution. A helpless Straw could not disagree.
At the end of the session, Chilcot said that from everything the inquiry had heard and read, Straw was the only person to have been kept fully informed throughout. Straw suggested that defence secretary Geoff Hoon was also closely involved, but the point had been made: not just that Straw was in the loop all the way through, but that most of the rest of the cabinet didn’t know a lot of what was going on.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/feb/08/chilcot-inquiry-iraq-jack-straw
Interesting find in this poll:
“In a worrying finding for the many MPs required to make repayments, a third of voters (32 per cent) say that if their local MP was among those required to repay money, they would vote against him purely on those grounds and regardless of the party they support. Women and working class voters are even more inclined to take this view. Some 63 per cent say they would take other issues, such as party policies and the qualities of other candidates, into account”
Will we see some very unusual results where sitting MPs of all parties could fall unexpectedly…
40/30/20 seems a disarmingly neat breakdown of the current situation but is probably not far wrong. I feel there will be a modest swingback to Labour when the votes are counted leaving an end result of 38/32/20 . Thanks partly to Andy’s extremely plausible and well-argued pieces of the past couple of days I am coming to believe that a 6 point margin may be enough to secure a narrow majority for Cameron.
10 points with all the other indicators (marginals, regional figures, mori aggregates, BSAS survey, Andy C’s analysis) all saying the Conservatives are doing it where they need to suggests to me that the talk of a hung parliament is media types desperate to fabricate a bit of excitement (‘it’s close’ is a much more interesting story than “Labour’s shit, they are beaten and everyone knows they are”).
As for Labour they are just desperate to save their jobs. With all this unemployment out there its going to get tough for an awful lot of Labour flunkies……..
I was predicting a 7-9 range on the basis that the charges would have no effect; in view of this I’d modify that to ’some limited effect’. But the polls are all the same general range (apart from AR) so the current position seems clear enough. Plenty of scope for further excitement…
18 I agree.
It just gave Cameron a chance to wrong foot Gordon.
Andy Cooke and Mike Smithson are streets ahead of the lame, lazy received wisdom that passes for commentary on polling in this country.
Anyone who is a punter owes them a big drink.
Labour struggle to get out of 30’s, where considering the kind weighting figures given to them, I guess they are at 27/28 max!
I’m still saying
GE share Con 42/43 Lab26/27 Lib 21
other 9/10
Con Majority 60/100 range!
20. Look at the demographics it affects. I’d be worried if I were someone like Jon Cruddas. Margaret Hodge keeps warning him…..
http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/datablog/2010/feb/05/mps-expenses-repayments-legg-report
Excellent blog on which MP is repaying what !
Sky now carrying Cameron speech without O’Glaza’s interpolation.
To various posters on the last thread . Populus weightings are NOT currently more favourable towards Labour than ICM , the 2 firms are almost identical . Populus January poll weightings were Con 20 Lab 23 LDem 13 and ICM Con 19 Lab 22 LDem 13 .
The Populus poll from February 2005 showed;
Con 32% Lab 41% Lib-Dem 18% Con Lead -9
So the Tories were pretty close to the final result, Lib-Dems heavily understated and Labour heavily overstated.
26. Same thoughts here. At the locals Labour leaked a lot of their working class core to the BNP and ’stay at home’.
I can’t wait until this site proclaim a lead for Brown a victory for Cameron, it’s starting to get to be a joke.
I am still predicting what I’ve predicted for a year now. Conservatives with 70-80 seat majority.
28 See 5.
But regardless, if they are so similiar, it’s movement in the wrong direction.
Labour cut Tory lead yet again and on this site it’s good news for the Tories yet again. Something smells around here.
O/T meant to ask on Sunday. Are any journalist lurkers aware of why there has been no Alan Watkins comment column since before Christmas in the IoS? Is he ill?
His Master Alan Watkins’ Almanack which I always looked forward to didn’t appear this year.
I think something must have happened to Michael Jackson - his doctor is in court.
29. Gin,
I really do believe that Labour are about 3-4% overstated right now.
I reckon ARS are probably 1-2% out ( under) the Labour real share, which I believe is 27/28(max)
The other interesting thing about 40 30 20 10 ( apart from the very low others score ) is that the respective 10 point gaps between the big three make a debate upset just about possible and ergo not worth the risk? Labour look to have seen off the LD’s to be the largest centre left party after the election, the Conservatives seem to be on course for a clear majority so cui bono other than Nick Clegg or Gordon if he is deluded enough to think he can still win?
31 - I’m predicting Conservatives by 40-50 have been for ages.
I see the polls are all over the place again! I prefer just to average the last couple of weeks out and then add 2% on to the tory score to allow for the “Labour over reporting” effect. On that basis the tories have a 11% lead.
Highly unscientific, but I suspect it’s near enough the truth.
31.Steve,
I think 60/100 range, you may have it right I feel!
15. But YS would you really expect the Lib Dem grassroots to say, or even believe, anything else?
Wayne,
What you reckon doesn’t matter. The only thing that matters is polling day.
FACT!
And with that, I bid you all a LOL!
37.James,
Good to hear from you, hope the new jobs working out well!
36 - Yellow. Actually there is a more interesting conundrum there. If Cameron needs Labour’s wings clipping a bit more, then what better way than getting a few of them going to the LibDems. Depressing the Labour total alongside some pro-Tory swing could well be very beneficial in gaining some seats…
I’ve now done my thinking on the Andy Cooke article. I don’t have time to write it up in full now but the gist of it is that while the analysis is a truly seminal piece of work, it looks backward rather than forward in just the same way as Rod Crosby is prone to do. I have the germs of a forward-looking analysis, which might well be thought of as VIPA-esque. More when I have time.
41.
Laughter (not)
Put the lid back on the glue, and stop posting from boarded up shop doorways!
Nick Robinson is in Cardiff asking: “do you want five more years of Labour?”
and finding that
“It’s clear how much trouble Labour will be in if that is what the election is seen to be about.”
It is, Nick.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/nickrobinson/2010/02/taking_pulse.html
On each of my stops on this entirely unscientific test of public opinion, I’m posing a different question to get voters talking. Today it’s the one Gordon Brown knows is the hardest his party faces after 13 years in power: “Do you want five more years of Labour?”
It’s clear how much trouble Labour will be in if that is what the election is seen to be about. While we were filming in a Cardiff gym, young, old and very sweaty circuit trainers lined up to answer in the negative and to express their anger about expenses, the economy, Afghanistan and/or immigration - which came up again and again, despite being barely mentioned in Westminster.
fpt 587 jsfl. I agree trade union influence is at least as bad as Ashcroft. I’m not really comfortable with either. In an ideal world there’d be no campaign advertising or the like, but then the media would rule the roost - so to avoid that we have to allow it and so it’s always likely that a few individuals seem powerful. I think I prefer it that way as they are always open to media scrutiny whereas if they didn’t exist it would just be a battle of the media. I’m by no means sure of my views on this matter mind you.
36 YS
well it shows Clegg has missed one of his big opportunities. While much of the Tory press has laid in to Cameron on not killing Brown off; and the Labourites have laughed as they have come through scrape after scrape; it should be remembered the LDs have got as much to worry about as Cameron.
Frankly given one of the worst PMs ever , a huge recession etc. I can’t figure out why the LDs aren’t on 30 instead of Labour.
Should Labour lose and all hell will break out, Clegg may get another chance, but to date he has not shown the strategic vision to become the second force in UK politics.
The Hung Parliament thingy is interesting, and this is where the, ahem, Knox Paradox might come into play, as I have mentioned before.
The basic theory is: voters aren’t that keen on the Tories, indeed many electors are quite easily persuaded that the Tories are nasty Thatcherites who want to privatise rainbows, however these same voters hate Labour and Brown A WHOLE LOT MORE.
Thus, the polls can easily drift away from Cammo, but when they start going too far towards Labour, and people start hearing about “hung parliaments” and “possible Labour governments” then the voters get frit and think: Jesus, I don’t want another five years of these lefty sh1ts, I don’t care how many kittens Cameron will strangle.
And thus the polls swing back to the Tories.
This Knox Paradox explains the odd stability and equilibrium of the polls in recent months: Labour can’t ever get that close because too many people want them to lose.
And yes, the Tories would easily win a majority with a ten point lead.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1249450/Tony-Blair-dismisses-Iraq-Inquiry-Britains-obsession-conspiracy-theories.html
‘Tony Blair today launched an extraordinary attack on the Iraq Inquiry - as the chairman warned that he and others could be recalled over ‘gaps’ in their evidence.
In an outspoken interview in the U.S. the former prime minister dismissed the inquiry as part of a ‘continual desire to sort of uncover some great conspiracy’.’
Kalman says Tory lead has increased by about a point since a week ago…
http://www.titanictown.plus.com/hp/lead.png
I would like to see the results of a poll asking “Do you think the main stream media has an anti-tory bias?”
My answer is yes.
So Dave had his first decent week since Christmas, which probably limited the downward movement.
Can he keep it up?
Bearing in mind the comments about the Lib Dem potential to overperform (hold on to Tory seats/overperform on Labour seats and possibly pick up more tactical votes even than before (including some Conservative-> Lib Dem votes), I’ve had a quick run of the model on 40/30/20 with some minor additions:
1 point marginal overperformance for LDs in Con v LD seats (to reflect “barnacle nature”
1 point marginal overperformance for LDs in Lab vs LD seats (to reflect targeting the marginals)
A 0.4% Con-LD tactical vote and a further 0.2% Lab-LD tactical vote.
Result on those figures was Con 369-379, Lab 180-190, LD 55-61
I can’t really justify the LD adjustments other than “guess/just a bit of fun” level, but the Lib Dems do remarkably well considering the large LD->Con swing.
Can someone tell me what happens when the Knox Paradox and the Palmer Paradox collide? Will there be a universe left
51. You mean Kalman is reporting swingback?
What impact do PBers think the hung parliament narrative is having? Is it likely to make voters favour a party more or less? My feeling is that it might give confidence to all those voters a little nervous about a Conservative victory but considering going blue for the first time because they can’t stand Brown. In other words I wonder if it’s not actually helping the Tory vote. It could of course have no impact on voting intentions at all. In which case one wonders why it’s being pushed so hard.
50 seats would do me !!!!
Well I guess its not so much “swingback” as “boomerang” time for Rod.
56. Hung Parliament = Gordon Brown, 5 more years = Tory vote
55. Fractional move to the Tories…
51 - Yay, Swingforward
49. Apologies SeanT - I realise I inadvertently just offered a watered down version of the Knox Paradox. Shouldn’t skim read the thread.
46. It was illuminating watching toenails’ report that even those who who refused to say No to 5 more years, were VERY unwilling to say yes. Most opted for a don’t know.
56 A hung Parliament meme near the day will make Labour voters vote LibDem, to bring it about - and everybody else think “F*CK! NOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!” and vote Tory to keep Brown away from the levers of power. Monster Tory win.
“Gordon Brown: Five More Years!”.
That slogan makes the Labour Manifesto of 1983 - “the Longest Suicide Note in History” - seem positively appealling.
62 - I think the lesson learned for the Tories is that they’ll do best if they can focus away from the economy and keep Osborne lovked in a box.
Dave needs to stop being a Toyota as he has been for four months and be coherent, which he has managed since Wednesday.
Breaking news on bbc/sky = bercow suspends severance payments for the 3 labour mps on charges.
makes gord look like a ditherer yet again. good for gollum.
Gordo bravely ran way (he wrote a book on Courage you know), just too late for most of the evening news bulletins…
http://iaindale.blogspot.com/2010/02/labour-sacks-its-lawyers.html
21.Are you expecting the polls to overstate the Conservatives while understating Labour this time around?
56. Well, it’s all supposition until a pollster actually asks the question, such as:
Who would you prefer to form the next government?
A) Labour alone
B) Labour with the Lib Dems
C) Conservatives with the Lib Dems
D) Conservatives alone
One for ARS, perhaps?
58. Nope, the Tories will finish up 4 or 5 points ahead on polling day. This study says so.
http://www.epop08.com/papers/documents/NadeauUK-Forecasting-EPOP08.pdf
Keep watching the Cameron/Brown approval ratings (if we get any more)
The last MORIs were 43:33, which isn’t enough for Cameron…
40-30-20-10 is Bob Worcester’s basis for a general election prediction. My personal opinion is that the Tories will win with a majority of 10-15 seats. I do not feel the same hatred for Labour as the Tories in 97 and I do not feel the same warmth for Cameron as there was for Blair in 1997. Things might change but I do not see the Conservatives securing a comfortable majority (40-50 plus)
It’s odd that the consensus on the hung parliament is that it’s not good for the Labour vote, as Labour seem so keen on it. I thought the summer narrative that a Tory win were a sure thing was a lot more dangerous for Cammo.
69. I suggested that weeks ago…
As Harriet Harman, whose memory is also selective on the point, was quick to observe, Cameron and his senior colleagues also voted against a clause in last summer’s bill to establish Ipsa – parliament’s independent financial watchdog – which would have clarified any doubts that MPs are as liable for theft, fraud and other crimes as anyone else.
There were good reasons for doing so, as veteran Labour MPs such as Margaret Beckett and John Reid, who also voted no, will readily confirm. The clerk of the house, Malcolm Jack, warned them that allowing courts jurisdiction over what MPs – or peers – say in parliament might prove a thin end of a dangerous wedge. Harman missed that bit.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/feb/08/parliamentary-privelege-clarification
I was going to make this post over the weekend, but events overtook me and it now looks a bit late.
I live in Birmingham, work in Warwickshire and spend much of my free time in the Black Country. Brown and Labour are universally loathed by everyone I meet, from young first time voters to the retired and everyone in between. When I have discussed the polls with various people, none of them can believe 1 in 3 people will still vote Labour after everything that has happened since 2005.
I believe that the more the % Labour vote in polls increases, the bigger the Tory majority will be. The reason - Labour are increasing their poll scores by appealing to their core - the Scots, benefit claimants, ethnic minorities and the public sector by reminding them of the nasty Tories.
The trouble is, they are strengthening their core vote in the places it doesn’t matter (Scotland, the North, Inner Cities) while at the same time turning off their own non-core vote - most of who live in marginals. The Labour party are hence pressing the self destruct button - the more the core vote increases driven by the anti-WWC, anti-middle class, anti-toff agenda, the more the floating voters reject them and turn to Labour.
I believe the current Labour polling increase demonstrates this; I think the country is getting more polarised, and unfortunately for Labour the marginals are getting more and more desparate to remove them from power.
So carry on Gordo, spend and take us into debt until the pips squeak, watch your core vote increase as your number of seats diminishes exponentially.
This is a riveting debate between the Crosbyite swingbackers and the Cookeite variable swingers.
What tips it for me is the sheer consistency of the trend towards Labour since last summer. Look at any of the graphs e.g. the all polls trend in UK Polling Report
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/voting-intention
or Rod Crosby’s figures.
Since June 2009 the Labour share has been rising in as close to a straight line as you get in real data - virtually 1% per month. Straight lines mean something systematic is happening. That something is partly the economic optimism index - which rocketed last year as pointed out by OGH in September. The other part is fear - fear of the Tories getting in which is concentrating the minds of wobbling Labour voters wonderfully.
The rest is mostly froth.
Even the Populus poll tonight is moving in the same direction.
The next few polls are going to be absolutely fascinating. If the trend towards Labour continues, the Cooke thesis becomes ever more crucial but ultimately perhaps academic.
Great stuff
Is the guardian growing a spine?
42 - Not really but thanks for asking. As soon as I have sold my house I’m looking for a new one.
Tim’s advice to the Tories is reminiscent of Shane Warne’s to the England cricket team.
Dorries about to get her fifty quids out on C4.
Oh Lord.
76. “I do not feel the same hatred for Labour as the Tories in 97″ - That’s an astonishing view given the economics. Perhaps you don’t realise how indebted we are?
76 I think the public are less warm towards all politicans thanks to the shabbiness of the last 13 years.
That’s why Blair was such a disaster.
We have not seen Brown cry yet on TV (if he does), but women on TV saying they felt sorry for him.
I wish they showed the bit on BBC yesterday when Campbell said why they picked ITV,
Brown ‘Cries On TV Over Daughter’s Death’
The Prime Minister became upset as he recalled the moment he realised baby Jennifer Jane would not survive.
She died after a brain haemorrhage when she was 10 days old in 2002.
Mr Brown is believed to have described being with Jennifer in her final moments.
He opened up to television host Piers Morgan in front of a studio audience for the interview, which will be broadcast by ITV next Sunday.
He was joined by his wife, Sarah, who reportedly also became tearful during the recording.
EXPECT him to get a few points from this.
85. In 1997 the general feeling was anti-Tory.
Today it’s anti-politics.
An interesting pointer to the BBC mentality comes from the Nick Robinson blog.
He interviews people in Cardiff N - that’s number 20 on the UKPR list of target seats (and 14th Labour held seat on that list).
He mentions that he’s going next to Pendle - number 45 on the list (and 33rd Labour).
Previously a different BBC politics program has nominated Stourbridge as it seat to follow - that’s number 25 on the Conservative target list (and 17th Labour).
The BBC still seem to be thinking in terms of whether Labour can win the election. If they were investigating whether the Conservatives were going to get an overall majority they would instead be reporting from places like Kingswood, Amber Valley, Vale of Clywd, Telford etc.
80,albion,your certainly right about the inner citie’s for labour,where I live you could put a red rosette on a donkey and it would get voted in
read this,
http://www.express.co.uk/ourcomments/view/156876
58 I know that it is a bit of fun but my gut feeling is that you are in the right area.
56 I think that a hung Parliament narrative probably frightens some waverers into voting Conservative.
The prospect of Brown remaining Prime Minister for another five years is one that many people find very grim.
92. Browns a very grim person.
92. And the prospect of Cameron and Osborne being given unfettered power presumably gives them an orgasm?
I spoke to better a couple of days ago [£2000 grand or so resting on the GE] who just doesn’t believe we will see anything other than a Tory win simply because he believes the country won’t put Gordon back in, regardless of anything else.
75 The Yougovs, though, were 25:47.
I accept, the Yougovs will be weighted by past voting intention, whereas MORI aren’t.
94 Yes, if they have enough money resting on it.
88. Another big difference between 97 and now is that the country is, at present, completely shagged and clapped out, and facing a decade of debt.
It’s difficult to be enthusiastic about any opposition party that promises to clean up this mess, as we know it will be a painful process - it’s like looking forward to a dental appointment, knowing you need at least three fillings and some root canal work.
Nonetheless most people would rather not have all their teeth fall out, so they do end up going to the dentist. Likewise, people will reluctantly vote Tory knowing that Labour have screwed everything and SOMEONE has to get a grip.
What a contrast with 97. In 1997 Blair swanned in on the back of a booming economy, promising to make everything even nicer and build billions of hospitals on the proceeds of growth. That’s a much easier sell, hence the greater enthusiasm.
Shortly before the Chilcot panel exposed the gaps and inconsistencies in his evidence today, jack Straw said this…
Jack Straw accused David Cameron of “sheer hypocrisy” after Mr Cameron attacked the Labour party’s actions on the three MPs charged for abusing their expenses
“David Cameron’s position this morning is breathtaking for its sheer hypocrisy.
“Just a few months ago the Conservative Party were actively sabotaging all efforts to exclude the ambit of parliamentary privilege from the new laws on MPs expenses.
“Now Mr Cameron’s lust for an easy headline has provoked yet another bout of rank opportunism. The British public will see right through it.”
Wow, Karma really sucks!
94 LOl! I suspect not.
But, it’s generally the government that gets judged on polling day, not the Opposition.
O/T- I must say that Cameron’s performance in the last couple of weeks has been utterly pathetic, stretching to new lows today. The taste of power has changed him into something utterly loathsome!
76. Chris Took
“I do not feel the same hatred for Labour as the Tories in 97 and I do not feel the same warmth for Cameron as there was for Blair in 1997.”
There certainly isn’t the same warmth to Cameron as there was to Blair but the hatred of Labour is very widespread outside their payroll vote.
Labour’s problem is that their core payroll vote is concentrated in the big cities.
In fact NPMP’s canvass returns seem to pick up on this, the only strong Labour supporters remaining seem to be the new toffs of public sector middle managers and quangocrats.
88 - you may be right. From canvassing done today now finding people who have either not voted since 1992 or 1997 or never voted at all and who don’t intend to vote at the GE. Changed from years ago when turnouts where in the late 70’s or early 80.
90 I should be a columnist for the Express. I do believe gaining 2000 seats in Glasgow costs Labour 1000 seats in the Midland marginals - hence as the poll number increases the number of seats decreases.
101 He’s revealed himself as one of the Illuminati.
101 - yes, Tyson - except you always hated Cameron so don’t blow smoke in our eyes!
I just read the Daily Mirror take on Brown crying (welled up)
“His wife Sarah cried during the interview”,
I hope they do not dwell on her as well.
Gordon Brown “welled up” during a TV interview when he spoke about his baby daughter’s death, it was revealed yesterday.
Friends of the Prime Minister said it happened as he talked about the moment he realised newborn Jennifer was not going to survive. She suffered a brain haemorrhage and died in 2002, 10 days after her premature birth.
The friend said of his appearance on Piers Morgan’s Life Stories, which ITV will screen on Sunday: “It was very emotional. He did not break down in tears but his eyes clearly welled up.”
His wife Sarah cried during the interview, which lasted two a n d a half hours and was shot in front of an audience. Mr Brown also spoke of his agony that his son Fraser, three, may have a poor life expectancy because he suffers from cystic fibrosis.
More votes to Labour, by week next Wednesday it could be Labour on 35%
Dorries isn’t doing ehrself any favours, but Oaten and Loughton are doing really well.
56.”What impact do PBers think the hung parliament narrative is having?”
Others -> Tories
101. It’s hard to see how, until he starts smearing his own party and the opposition and their wives and kids at taxpayers expense, he won’t always be streets ahead.
“Inheritance levy to fund social care being considered by ministers
(…)The health secretary, Andy Burnham, believes he may get the backing for a compulsory plan from Downing Street, but influential cabinet members are still agonising over whether to be explicit about it on the eve of the poll. They fear the proposal may prove to be too bold to sell to the electorate in the heated weeks before an election.”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2010/feb/08/inheritance-levy-social-care-policy
96. Doesn’t make much difference, anyhow, and since approval is being used as a proxy variable its weighting is not really relevant. It is still saying something about the race, and has been used successfully in the past.
98. I’ve posted before that this election is much more 79 than 97. Conservatives will never be elected on a tidal wave of euphoria because they always get voted in after Labour have screwed things up. Thats just the way things are.
107. I don’t believe the Tears for Piers will give Labour any lasting boost at all. Hillary won a primary when she blubbed, she lost the election.
They may get one or two points, very temporarily, but the electorate is too flinty hearted to give much of a f*ck beyond that. And rightly so.
If we voted on the basis of who was the mintiest PM most given to flamboyant displays of sentimental emotion we’d have a government of pantomime dames and torch singers.
101. No matter Tyson, you’ll soon be in opposition with a new leader. Then you’ll really be able to start getting you dander up against Cam.
91,
I wonder if it’d be worthwhile me running various alternate assumptions and popping them up on pb2 about weekly? Off the top of my head, I can think of:
- Lib Dem barnacle (1 point boost vs Tory tide)
- Lib Dem targetting (1 point boost on attacking Labour)
- Change gearing on the marginal boost (have the magnitude follow a power law rather than linear, which would shallow out the effect at lower levels)
- Vary Lib Dem vs Labour, keeping Tories at 40
- Con-> Lib anti-Labour voting
- Lab->Lib extra voting
- Rewinding past the zero point in both/either tactical voting/marginal boost
- Boosting the 0-10 majority marginals at the expense of the 10-20 majority marginals (thinking about NickP’s comments)
… and, of course, combinations of these effects.
Might bore the socks off of everyone in the long run, mind
101, you think he shouldn’t tackle the lobby, cut the number of MPs or call for the media to play their part in promoting good politics?
His attack on Brown was legitimate, and, to be honest, a little half-hearted for my liking. Certainly wasn’t the vicious impaling the media seem determined to describe it as.
107, I agree it will boost Labour. It shouldn’t, however. Suffering personal tragedy is cause for human sympathy, but it does not denote moral worth or political competence. Brown is still a shit, he’s just a shit that’s suffered some terrible tragedies.
Dorries is actually improving a bit… coming across as at least vaguely human.
110- sally- Cameron should be leagues ahead, so why stoop to such ad hominem attacks today? This demonstrates that politics is a really dirty business that either attracts degenerates or corrupts well meaning people. Whatever- but David Cameron has emerged today as someone who could well sell his granny for a couple of votes.
112 Perhaps so. But on MORI’s figures, Cameron is 20% up on where Howard was in Spring 2005.
As I said Andy, there’s 101 things you can do, and I’m sure your working-out would be spot on in every case.
However, parsimonious models - as I’m sure you know - tend to be better.
There will be a big push on Brown’s character to counter the expected problems with the Rawnsley book. Cameron is also going on Brown’s character too.
I suspect the fact that the issue is Brown’s character is a win in itself.
There will, in all likelihood, be an effect following the ITV interview, but I suspect it won’t last.
104 Albion Til I Die
“2000 seats in Glasgow costs Labour 1000 seats in the Midland marginals”
Don’t you think we already have too many MPs? Glasgow has only 7 seats at the moment - and you want it to have thousands!!
53.Andy, for me the biggest conundrum in the up coming GE will be the Libdem performance, and how it various in different regions of the country. And that is going to help define the result. I just don’t buy the idea that they will come out of this GE pretty much static, and with a nice neat swing from Labour where it matters to off set any swing to the Conservatives elsewhere. And without either a charismatic high profile leader, or a defining issue like Iraq or student fees with which to launch a GE manifesto that will bring about this balancing act.
I genuinely feel that they are not doing enough right now to either hang onto their previous floating/soft Tory voters against Cameron’s Conservatives when there is now a palpable anti Labour mood. They are also not doing enough to shore floating/left leaning voters who might not want to risk jumping from Labour to Libdem with this being the first real chance of a change GE since 1997.
If there is going to be a significant tactical unwind, then it will impact on the Libdems as well. All conjecture I know, but I suspect that we saw a bit of the upcoming swing away from the Liddems in our Scottish elections back in 2007, only we were all to quick to simple blame this on their coalition with Labour at Holyrood, rather than a clue to an incumbency unwind at it were. And with the different voting system in play, we should remember how well the public know how to use FPTP effectively.
If I could see any strong over riding theme that would help cement Libdem incumbency where it won’t help MP’s of other parties, then I might be convinced. But its just not clear to me what that is. As we say up here, I am totally scunnered as to what the Libdems are playing at. If there is a tide change coming for a variety of reasons, the Libdems needed to behave like a big enough rock that they wouldn’t be moved by it. A multi faceted pebble ain’t going to do it.
“They’re all ignoring political climate change”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/rachel_sylvester/article7019806.ece
I doubt tears for Piers will shift many votes. People know Cameron lost a child much more recently than Brown did and he’s not blubbing in public. I hate to say it but the timing of all this makes me feel very uncomfortable.
120. But Brown is only slightly below where Blair was, which is more important in the model…
119 Politics is like war.
As Richard Sharpe said to Patrick Harper.
“When’s the best time to kick a man, Pat? When he’s down, sir”.
118 - What do you think of punting a pilot show for a series where MPs go and stay in Nadine Dorries house and attempt to survive on fresh air?
The tories had a 20 seat majority plus in 1992 with a 7% lead surely with boundary changes a 10 lead would give at least 60 seat majority i dont buy this hung parliament nonsense how is 10% close it isnt
107
I fel sorry for the Browns on their loss, and for their son’s illness.
But why on earth would you assume this would make anyone more likely to vote for him? Weirdo
120 After what Brown’s cronies have aimed at him and his family, I suspect he finds it hard to see the bloke as human.
Why shouldn’t be despise Brown? He has reason to thinks he’s despicable. You may not like it, but I thinks he’s being honest, which is rare.
Is it too cynical to observe that the revelations about Brown’s grief for his lost daughter appear to have been timed to achieve maximum publicity around the anniversary of Ivan Cameron’s death?
134, Cameron might want to offer some sort of sympathetic utterance regarding the matter after it’s aired. It’s rather tragic that almost the only thing they have in common is such a loss.
125 - in my opinion they did well in 2005 as they were seen to be the anti-war party and that chimed with the youth and student vote, Tories still were in some parts of the UK unpopular and took a good chuck of the anti-Labour vote. It did help them in Scotland to have Charles Kennedy as their Leader, plus the monies given to the party for that election helped.
127 I am beginning to think there were no ‘Tears for Piers’, as such, and it is all part of a media strategy to make something of the interview.
I don’t doubt he was emotional but it’s begining to sound like its been blown up.
121,
Oh, indeed - simplify, simplify is always best. But one must always be careful to avoid oversimplifying. If I were to look at jettisonning any of the variables, it would be the first one, as having the minimum effect. Conversely, the last thing I’d jettison would be the vote share change itself, as that has the largest effect.
One very important factor is the polling accuracy, as you’ve pointed out before. For example, the 2005 election on UNS should have given a 96-seat Labour majority (off by 30 on the majority) - but with the polling average on 1st May, as Martin Baxter points out, UNS would have predicted a Labour majority of 140. So the polling would be the biggest factor to explore - which it has been in depth on this site in the past.
After that, trying to address the distortions in UNS (and bearing in mind that the “unwind” level on the distortions in 2005 were none to great in magnitude but still knocked 30 off of Blair’s majority) is definitely worth addressing. I can well hold to just tactical voting and marginal boost effects, but it’s hard to see what to drop further without oversimplifying the model. Parsimony of postulates, yes - but not excessively so.
(Occam’s razor, modified: When hearing hoofbeats, think horses rather than zebras - unless you’re on the grasslands of Africa)
74 - what about “Labour and the Conservatives”?
Who is a slimy, cynical professional liar?
A. Campbell, esq
Who advised Brown to blub on the Piers Morgan interview?
A. Campbell, esq
Who liked his own advice so much he did it on Marr?
A. Campbell, esq
Oh dear God… that Nadine Dorries “confession” for the £50 was even worse than it sounded in print.
Wow…
120.tyson, its simple, I suspect that unlike the majority of us, Cameron is well aware of exactly what was in those McBride emails. I think that we are also missing another very real and palpable factor in all of this, Five Live picked it up this morning, and Cameron definitely alluded to it in his speech as well. The behaviour and culpability of the MSM when we now view the current state of politics and debate in the UK as we head into the next GE.
Its not just our politicians who let us down.
116 I think you are going along the right lines. Look at the LD target seats last time and you will see that where they were targeting Labour seats they generally got a bigger boost than 1% though. The results where they were defending against the Tories were much more varied with many seeing a small swing to the Tories but many others had quite big swings the other way. First time incumbents generally seem to do well.
All this talk on the media about Gordon Brown being manipulative, secretive, power hungry, is all for the birds quite frankly.
The real reason Gordon Brown is disliked is because he is seen as dull. And dull leaders never win.
Simple really. It’s just a shame that the Labour Party just don’t get it. They’re so self righteous with all that banging on about policies, they’re starting to sound like Jehovah’s witnesses.
Evening all
My first chance to post for a few days so first congratulations to Andy for a superb series of articles and a well-constructed thoughtful and influential analysis. I don’t pretend to have completely understood or absorbed it all as yet but inasmuch as it coincides with my thinking that, as in 1997, the principal Opposition party is doing better where it needs to than the headline poll numbers suggest and therefore that unless the campaign substantially changes the dynamic, the Conservatives are on chance for a clear majority.
I also welcome the insights from the Conservatives on here regarding the LD performance at the GE. Of course, the principal weapon seems to be the scare tactic that somehow the LDs will do a deal with Labour and keep Brown in office. Now, I see no evidence of that but it’s a useful ploy and if the race tightens further, I suspect we’ll hear more of it.
Christina writes of course from a Tory perspective and I write from an LD one but I suspect neither of us really know what is going to happen - I know I don’t. I do think the LDs will lose seats to the Conservatives and possibly 15-20 nationally balanced by a few pick ups from Labour but as recent elections have shown, there can be huge individual constituency variations (Solihull in 2005 for example) where local factors play more than seems evident.
142, the unspoken but alluded to contents of the ‘absolutely bloody brilliant’ smears were made reasonably clear without being articulated. It’s one of a few reasons why nothing Brown could do would persuade me he’s anything other than a wretched chump.
Austin Mitchell claims he would make a better Prime Minister than Gordon Brown.
The sad thing is, that even with his disastrous performance on TBOC, and his ridiculous political philosophy, he probably would.
FPT (Too many to mention)…
Dizzy’s comments about the Nadine “Marmite” Dorries contains the following, which I thought particularly insightful based on the comments from tim, Lilly, tyson et al.
Such is the quintessential nature of the obsessive Leftist online community. They’re ever concerned about injustices against all manner of individuals in a given sub-identity group, unless the individual has the wrong political views, in which case, sod the high-minded principles.
http://dizzythinks.net/2010/02/n-for-vendetta.html
136.Marcia, I agree with you. And that is why I posted that comment, none of those reasons to vote for the Libdems still exist in 2010, and I have yet to see anything else in their place.
129- sean- but that is what you have you have henchmen for. Why did Cameron feel the need to get his boots dirty today by inflicting the kicks himself? Stupid because at some point in the not too distant future Cameron will get a personal taste of todays medicine.
Cameron is rapidly losing his sense of personal authority as he sees his votes dropping a percentage or two. Poor, poor leadership!
141 - Pure class.
136 I agree about the impact of the war but I’m not convinced it has diminished hugeky as a factor. For many first time voters this time the Iraq War remains the biggest political event of their life. I agree about the Kennedy effect. I’m not convinced the money position will bethat different. The large Brown donation came too late to be used effectively last time, and their donation figures have been consistently up this time.
144. The real reason Brown is disliked is not because he’s dull, it’s because he’s dishonest, manipulative, vicious and strange and because after 13 years his government has turned the country into an economic wasteland and a social mess.
142. The main I really liked about Cam’s speech today was when he said his government would NOT be dictated to by the 24hr news cycle. That he would just get on with governing and the media could get on with what they want to do. Thats great news, IMO, but I suspewct one of the reason Cameron is getting such a kicking from large sections of the British media is that they know he will govern in a very differant way to Labour and it’ll be much harder to get him to keep playing their games….
149 ChristinaD and marcia
“To lose one Scots LD leader, Mr. Worthing, may be regarded as a misfortune; to lose two looks like carelessness.”
OT The latest edition of Newswipe is rather good
http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b00qjnl2/Newswipe_Series_2_Episode_3/
140. I would think more of Alistair Campbell if he had quietly gone away instead of deciding to try his hand at novel-writing. If I remember correctly his first novel is about a psychiatrist who is really, really amazing except for the fact that he is too virile and has depression, and then he offs himself at the end and everyone gathers round and cries buckets of scalding tears over the fact that they didn’t appreciate Alistair, I mean the protagonist, while his genius still walked upon the earth.
Give it up, Alistair, the only new thing that anybody wants to read from you are the parts of your diaries where Gordon Brown screams and punches a dude in the head. When you try to use your imagination, you’re a terrible writer!
144. I think the real damage is the idea that Brown is weak and cowardly. Mr Bean, Brown the Bottler, McAvity Brown, Brown grinning and gurning on YouTube. They were the things that have done lasting damage. The Stalin meme on the other hand was actually promoted by Ed Balls.
Tim Loughton is a star. If he is good on policy as he comes across on TBOC, he should be promoted, very very fast.
Austin Mitchell and Nadine Dorries are downright embarassing for anyone interested in politics.
Oaten has been really good so far but is about to get hit with his expenses.
154, I agree, but also suspect it’s partly because some portions of the media are moronic, others are blatant lefties, and some are trying to turn a 10pt lead into a hung Parliament to make it interesting.
re 532 FPT Augustus I too had thought Jack W had gone quiet too before I heard a news item last week and heard him lecturing on climate change in ustralia.
150 - Its interesting how Cameron has reacted since the last few months. He’s had three things to contend with.
Declining poll ratings, particularly his personals since the summer.
A backroom team who are scrapping.
Being laughed at.
Somethings got under his skin.
145.”Christina writes of course from a Tory perspective and I write from an LD one but I suspect neither of us really know what is going to happen - I know I don’t.”
stodge, seriously, I didn’t pen that post from a Tory perspective, but rather as an avid political anorak. And I did worry that it would be dismissed because I am regarding by some as Mrs Tory bloomers on here. It was a genuine attempt to articulate the reasons why I see the upcoming Libdem performance as a real conundrum, but one that will have a definitive knock on effect for all the parties. Like you, I just don’t know. But I think its valid to point out that part of my reasoning is due to the fact that so many of the factors that aided their performance in 2005 no longer exist.
162. At least he’s not James Gordon Brown!
1 - Brown would have to weep daily from now until the GE to work up enough of a sympathy swing to give him even a shadow of a chance. Which he has not got, no-how.
2 - The hung parliament narrative is excellent for the Tory GOTV prospects.
3 - In 97, Blair was quite pretty and talked a good game just when it was time for a change. He got more of a nice fresh feeling going than Cameron has but that will not make a scrap of difference to the outcome of GE 2010 because of the Brown-five-more-years factor. The country is desperate to get Brown and his appalling, corrupt, brain-dead but still malign, control-freak party out, at any price whereas in 1997 the electorate did not hate Major but was simply tired of him and his shagged-out party.
Everything has changed since then. It’s not just time for a change, now. People are desperate and determined. Whatever the polls say and whatever Labour now does, Andy Cooke is right. Brown and Labour will be slaughtered.
Vast Tory majority.
The Mitchells get worse and worse and worse. His wife is now slagging off a woman who is telling the story of how she lost her child.
162, he’s on course for a majority and has seen his lead rise and fall for months.
Is his backroom team scrapping? He can only dream of Labour’s unity
Laughed at? Ha. A repetitive twonk posting “LOL! Red!!!!1111″ on the interweb isn’t a powerful political narrative.
As for something being under his skin, he had a first Christmas without Ivan and the anniversary is roughly now. What would you expect?
150. Tyson.
Its not as if Cameron is a ‘virgin’ in the Brown bashing stakes. You are just trying to create another narrative where there isn’t one.
keep it up tim, not long before you hit 17,000 posts.
Still, not a lot to show for all your effort eh?
Tories heading for a majority which could be over 100 seats and you think being 10 points behind only 2 months before the election is good news??
I like people who think the glass is half full, but still
145 Wise words mate.
Back in 2005 many Tories posting here were predicting massive gains from the Lib Dems and some Lib Dems were expecting more gains from the Tories.
In the end it came down to the campaign on the ground in the marginal seats - with the LD v Con contests not following any overall pattern.
My expectation is that there will be huge variation again. There may well be a momentum behind the Tories where they are fighting Labour, but far less compulsion for voters in LD held seats with popular sitting MPs. I suspect that quite a few of the LD MPs who saw their majorities reduced last time will have been working very hard in their constituencies since.
I also expect that in seats where the LDs are the challengers to Labour they will once again clock up some very high swings as they did in many of their gains last time.
All in all the UNS will not aply to the LD performance (again).
162 - tim, what you have to contend with is something much worse: the sickening realisation that all your keyboard-bashing efforts and all your emotional investment has been a complete and utter waste of time.
Less than three months to go…
158. I thought it was Private Eye who started the “Dear Leader” schtick, not Balls? I thought he and his pals were going for a less literal “man of steel” image.
Brown really doesn’t have that great a PR team, does he? I remember a tidbit from that Bower book that everyone reads here about Charlie Whelan running around enthusiastically declaring that Gordon Brown had slept with a thousand women. No wonder it took him 10 years to get rid of Blair.
I’m sick of hearing ignoramuses parroting the “accepted” view that a 10% Tory lead means a hung parliament.
Congratulations to Mike and Andy for pouring fully deserved cold water on that idea.
117. Andy Cooke
I find your analysis fascinating and would like you to test it in a couple of simple scenarios one assuming the LD’s doing better than 20% and one doing worse than 20% say + or – 2%.
Also as you suggest leaving the Tories at 40% and varying Labour v. the Lib Dems
141.wibbler, where have you been the last 50 years? My old granny used to stash a bit extra away in an old handbag in the back of a wardrobe for a rainy day.
Good on Nadine for sticking it down her bra.
the old lady next week on TBOC ’spot the white person’
89 - Very true. Tory smugness is really grating because they need to realise that the majority of people don’t actually want them. They just want change (and not the sort of fake change Cameron talks about).
Just a quick comparison here to put into context the decline in Conservative support:
Populus/Times Feb 2008 - Con 40 Lab 31 LD 17
Populus/Times Feb 2009 - Con 42 Lab 28 LD 18
Populus/Times Feb 2010 - Con 40 Lab 30 LD 20
It’s really desperate for the Conservatives isn’t it (not)…..?
171 - But Colin, it’s been time well spent making money out of observing the groupthink.
Thanks
Joanne Cash has resigned as Tory candidate for Westminster North.
tyson what on earth are you on about? who has cameron attacked ad hominem today?
You may well feel that he should have done; personally I would like to see him try to work a couple of sex in the shower jokes into a speech, or perhaps at pmq, but i can see no sign that he has done so.
179 - I’m not sure your hourly rate is up to much! 16hrs a day, 7 days a week, 52 weeks of the year…5824 hours a year.
You better be clearing some serious dough to make it worthwhile, otherwise you would have been better off flipping burgers!
177. But if they don’t want the Conservatives the one thing that is for sure is that they want any of the other parties even less. Because if they wanted other parties more, the Conservatives wouldn’t be in the lead.
Now that is what the complacents in the other parties need to realise. That they are less wanted than those horrid nasty baby eating Conservatives…….
How is it with such wonderful people as can be found in the Labour party and the Liberal Democrats that such an awful party is preferred by the people to them.
It’s a real enigma…..
154 “The main I really liked about Cam’s speech today was when he said his government would NOT be dictated to by the 24hr news cycle. That he would just get on with governing and the media could get on with what they want to do.”
Couldn’t agree more - I posted my desire for this sort of approach a few threads back.
During my time working for various HMG depts - the news cycle was totally OTT and self generating activity.
179 - I still want to know which bookies you bet with.
Considering last year i made a net profit of £324 quid with victor chandler, and they closed my account.
On the other hand, Shadsy has given me a dedicated freephone number for me to call in my bets in case they get lost over the internet.
re 54 Sally the man is a complete and utter shit and a barefaced liar to boo. Do we expect anything better? I wonder how many tens of thousands he’s earned for appearing for Fox? I wonder how many thousands it has cost US to send his bodyguards over there? I don’t suppose he’ volunteered any contribution towards the cost.
re 55 Rod is there smoke coming out of the computer, and is it screaming “Does not compute, does not compute?” at you
o/t 2 little snippets via the wife today.
At primary schools in our area adults no longer allowed to touch children (without witness present) and the guidelines say that includes tucking shirts in…….
Also, after 13 years of Labour spending it seems (at least in our area) that a fair number of primary school children are getting extra help from home tutors. Interestingly a fair number of TA’s with children at the school are doing it too.
Hardly a vote of confidence in school standards and this is hardly a poor or deprived area.
Surely this isn’t the story Pickles was getting excited about during his visit to Telegraph Towers,
The Telegraph quotes university lectures on how a generation of school leavers are being “abandoned” by the government
http://www.politicshome.com/images/tele_9feb.JPG
117. Andy Cooke
“Boosting the 0-10 majority marginals at the expense of the 10-20 majority marginals (thinking about NickP’s comments)”
Can I ask what you mean by this, from what NPMP has been saying (and I agree with him) the ‘Old Labour’ safe seats and showing a bigger swing than the ‘New Labour’ marginal seats. An effect of which is that only a small increase in the Conservative lead could yield large numbers of extra Conservative MPs.
Also, can I join with everyone else in thanking you for your very interesting work.
I must say I’m almost looking forward to the election to see what prediction model proves best as much as seeing what the actual result is.
The case for climate action must be remade from the ground upwards
With the science under siege and the politics in disarray, it may fall to civil society to keep this still crucial fight alive
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/cif-green/2010/feb/08/case-for-climate-change-science
150. Eh? So it’s not the fact he had a go but the fact he didn’t do it underhandedly?
Is that why Brown’s brand of politics has been so successful for so long.
173 andy JS
“I’m sick of hearing ignoramuses parroting the “accepted” view that a 10% Tory lead means a hung parliament.
Congratulations to Mike and Andy for pouring fully deserved cold water on that idea.”
Totally agree, thanks to the internet we are no longer forced to get out information from know alls who know nothing.
This is genius. Shop your neighbours for cash!
People who inform on benefit cheats could be given a share of the resulting savings to the state under proposals being examined by Labour’s manifesto team.
The idea has been put to Ed Miliband, Labour’s manifesto co-ordinator, by Jim Murphy, the Scottish secretary, as a way of making life harder for benefit cheats.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2010/feb/08/benefit-informers-snitch-policy
189 Eric was just being polite. Most of what is twittered politically is utter garbage.
jsfl - “Just a quick comparison here to put into context the decline in Conservative support:
Populus/Times Feb 2008 - Con 40 Lab 31 LD 17
Populus/Times Feb 2009 - Con 42 Lab 28 LD 18
Populus/Times Feb 2010 - Con 40 Lab 30 LD 20
It’s really desperate for the Conservatives isn’t it (not)…..?”
That is a stonking bit of reality after all the recent chaff - fingers crossed
179 tim
You would be better dedicating at least an hour a day to viewing the financial markets. Sterling down to 1.5570, Dow and Nikkei both closing below 10,000 for the first time this year. OK, not melt-down today, just more of the rapid attrition experienced last week.
And how is the rot going to be stopped. Gordon will lecture the Greeks on fiscal prudence.
Hope you closed down on your spread positions. I have this vision of you plundering Nadine’s bra to cover your losses.
meanwhile back in the real world…
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/7191113/Greek-crisis-intensifies-as-Joe-Stiglitz-calls-for-Europe-to-teach-the-speculators-a-lesson.html
On Tears for Pears - I think Michael White got it right, Gordon’s tears were for real, the situation he was in when he exposed his emotions was one of naked political calculation.
Alistair Campbell & his PR advisors suggested the best thing he could do was an interview about “the real Gordon Brown” to address the many stories about his bullying, disorganisation and general unlikeability. A personal interview would obviously deal with his eyesight, the loss of a child and another child having a disabling disease. It would cover the Brown-Blair Wars. He was prepped and ready to go, he was willing to be asked, he knew he would be.
But, despite the calculation that lay behind it, the distress is no less real. Shame though he fell for Campbell’s advice, it cheapens that distress.
The stock markets dont trust browns policies seen how much its fallen in the last two days
Retail sales forjanuary not good… double dip here we come!! http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/article-1249469/Retail-woe-Ethel-Austin-seeks-rescue.html
Not been a good few days for the SNP
Teacher training places cut by 40 per cent
SNP ministers have been accused of “cutting off the pipeline” of new teachers after it emerged the number of training places will plummet by more than 1,500 this year.
The Scottish Funding Council (SFC) announced the number of places will fall by 40 per cent, from 3,857 in 2009-10 to 2,307 in 2010-11.
Trainee primary teaching numbers will fall by more than half, bearing the brunt of the cuts, despite an SNP promise to cut class sizes in primary schools
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/scotland/7190627/Teacher-training-places-cut-by-40-per-cent.html
194 Scott P
oh great , now they’re turning us into a nation of narks.
199, good post, I quite agree.
197 - Don’t worry about my finances, worry about your imagination.
196 - Plato, check out the link at 191, you may find it interesting
Re: 170 - Thanks, mate.
Re: 163 - Fair enough, Christina, and the question you pose is of course relevant. 66% want a change we are told and I can certainly understand that but perhaps not everyone who wants a change sees the Conservatives as the ideal vehicle for that change.
I do think for many that it is a simple swing - if it’s not Labour, it must be Tory. Apparently, so we are led to believe, there were millions out there who have been in electoral cryogenic stasis since 1992 and are now awake and ready to vote Tory…
I’m less convinced.
One of the real changes of the last thirty or forty years has been the emergence of “other alternatives” be it the LDs, Greens, BNP, UKIP etc, etc. There is a more sophisticated, volatile and less tribal electorate out there who know that not wanting Labour doesn’t mean wanting the Tories and vice versa. The non-Conservative alternative to Labour exists in more areas and is better known and organised.
Were this not the case, we’d be looking at 50-30-15 not 40-30-20.
I haven’t answered your original question very well - perhaps it simply comes down to “because I don’t want to vote Tory”.
199 Sounds about right. The timing was also naked political calculation.
I didn’t see the article.
It just such a shame that Gordon thinks only he and his cronies have any finer feelings.
Perhaps this is the story Eric Pickles alluded too
Labour loses the support of business
Of 38 replies received from the 62 senior executives who signed a letter in 2005 backing Tony Blair as Prime Minister, less than half said they were backing Gordon Brown.
Twenty of the respondents refused to say whether they would continue to back Labour and all but one declined to declare themselves for the Conservatives. The letter was one of two written by business leaders to the Financial Times before the last election.
The second, from another 67 executives, backed the Conservatives and an analysis by Bloomberg shows the majority of them remain committed Tories.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/election-2010/7189678/Labour-loses-the-support-of-business.html
196. Indeed Plato you have to keep an eye on the leftie types. They will try every con trick with statistics they can think of if you let them….
Cameron’s performance has been patchy for a while but once you take the annual Conservative election victory bounce out of the equation things haven’t changed all that much at all.
Looking at those figures I’m just wondering what sort of drubbing Labour would have got last year without the expenses debacle intervening?
Anyway time for me to go.
Andy Cooke
Once again a couple of excellent pieces. Many thanks.
Toodle Pip everyone!
Chilcot closed today’s session, the last of the first round of public hearings with the words “over the next few months they’ll be considering all the documents”. So does this mean that Brown won’t appear before the election after all and his admission that he volunteered to was all hot air?
170 - “There is a more sophisticated, volatile and less tribal electorate out there who know that not wanting Labour doesn’t mean wanting the Tories and vice versa. The non-Conservative alternative to Labour exists in more areas and is better known and organised.”
If the creation of an expanded middle class spells the death of the Labour Party, does the triumph of the “choice agenda” spell the ultimate demise of the Conservatives?
In a world where there is a plethora of choice in every aspect of their lives, people are sophisticated enough to know that politics doesn’t have to come in just two rather bland and not particularly differentiated flavours.
Mrs Thatcher’s legacy?
I’m sure it’s really obvious, but what is TBOC? I’m intrigued by bras stuffed with cash
209 - Chief Executives support Tories? That ranks in the ursine arborial bowel-movement and pontiff predilection for smells and bells stakes
165 - “Everything has changed since then. It’s not just time for a change, now. People are desperate and determined. Whatever the polls say and whatever Labour now does, Andy Cooke is right. Brown and Labour will be slaughtered.”
totally agree.
I for one cannot wait for them to get their just desserts.
214 - But last time they supported Labour.
213,Tower block of commons,monday’s ch4,great laugh.
216 - a far more intriguing position.
213,it’s on ch4 plus one now.
216 Their votes only count when they come in for Labour, usually by post.
207.stodge, I agree with a lot of what you have posted there.
“Re: 163 - Fair enough, Christina, and the question you pose is of course relevant. 66% want a change we are told and I can certainly understand that but perhaps not everyone who wants a change sees the Conservatives as the ideal vehicle for that change.
I do think for many that it is a simple swing - if it’s not Labour, it must be Tory. Apparently, so we are led to believe, there were millions out there who have been in electoral cryogenic stasis since 1992 and are now awake and ready to vote Tory…
I’m less convinced.”
So am I. You see, I do wonder if the Libdems could face a real pincer movement this time around. That there will in fact be a swing away from them towards both Labour and the Conservatives as the vote polarises between the two main parties. When you have two left leaning parties carving up an toxic anti right leaning party, we see lovely team work as they tactically vote to reach the same goal. But when you have a combination of left leaning voters facing a right leaning government, will they behave in the same way? I don’t think so, I don’t expect to see the Libdems benefit from an anti Labour vote in quite the same way they did with the anti Tory one.
I think that we have seen that happening already in Scotland over the last couple of years, the biggest losers on the left were the Libdems and not their big brother partner. And its Labour that have been recovering in the polls rather than the Libdems as this GE draws near and we have an SNP administration in Holyrood too. Four party politics dilutes more, especially when there are three left leaning parties involved. But I suspect that the same dynamics might just come into play in the next GE. So, I don’t expect the Tories to benefit exclusively if the Libdems fall back, it won’t be that neat and simple.
182 - “You better be clearing some serious dough to make it worthwhile, otherwise you would have been better off flipping burgers!”
Thats his post election career
I don’t think are gonna change now, it would seem the battlelines are drawn. People are not really changing their minds, they just want an election. Brown is just putting off the inevitable and the longer he does, the angrier the electorate will be.
The Tories are settled at around 39 to 42, Labour around 28 to 30. The Tories will win this election anywhere between 9% and 14%.
199 Ted
A generous assessment.
No Prime Minister would agree to a two and a half hour interview in front of a studio audience without reserving the right of veto on what is broadcast.
So even if the tears were genuine (and I do not doubt they were), Brown had still ‘pre-authorised’ the subject matter of the interview and made a decision not to exercise his veto afterwards.
re 199 the real Gordon Brown? If it were then we would expect questions about phones and secretaries Do you think Morgan will ask any?
221 - Then you can make a lot of money betting against the Lib Dems in individual constituencies.
224 Please tell me that interview is not 2 1/2 hrs, that’ll be enough to make half the electorate commit suicide. That audience must have needed happy pills by the time they left.
225 Morgan is anti-Blair, pro-Brown. I wouldn’t be surprised if Campbell prepped him partly to avoid Gordon dropping his master in it over Iraq.
Will Gordon find an excuse not to turn up at PMQs now?
‘Devine intervention’
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/celebritynews/7189874/Calvin-Klein-says-Kate-Moss-was-difficult.html
229 He will be knobbled. It will be a planted question anyway. It will be passed on to another stooge.
Evening all. Just trying to catch up on today’s news and headings of threads.
Has Rod Crosby imploded with shock or just rubbished Andy’s work because there is no swingback?
No sign of Gordon Brown driving up to see the Queen yet? I guess we are not looking at a March GE? I hope not as I am due to be in Japan on the 25th.
Bradshaw is looking haggard on Newsnight. What happened to the handsome young ex-BBC man who won Exeter in 1997. Martin Day’s 2nd favourite person on Newsnight too.
Twenty four days to save the pound?
02/02/2010 1.5936
03/02/2010 1.5952
04/02/2010 1.5976
05/02/2010 1.5856
06/02/2010 1.5699
07/02/2010 1.5667
08/02/2010 1.5667
Current… 1.5574
Re Brown interview: It was 2 1/2 hrs but is being edited down to 1 Hr. Actually, that is the scandal. Imagine the edit process, under Mr Morgan….
232 The women of Britain would rejoice if the other short of pounds fell off so quickly.
On Tears with Piers, I’d say another problem with public displays of grief, is not whether its genuine but that it’s so self centred. If Brown showed greater signs of caring for the plight of others, surely that would be a much better sign of his humanity. Why, for instance, have the Chandlers been abandoned? I’ve never known British hostages get less news coverage. The last reports which were smuggled out (and strangely blanked by the BBC), showed them in a desperate situation. That couple have been held hostage for months now, yet the nation and the government seems to have forgotten them. It looks truly callous.
Excellent piece on an Amnesty for illegal immigrants.
Lots of people seem to have been touched by the story of 31-year-old Sukhwinder Singh, who was stabbed to death in East London after confronting two youths who had just mugged a young woman. The Daily Express described him as “the bravest and most selfless man”, The Mail on Sunday labelled him “a hero”, while others have used his story to illustrate general points about society.
A senior police officer cited him as an example of how police should not just “allow” but “encourage” people to intervene when they see a crime taking place; the Sikh clergy embraced him as an example of the selflessness that is a central tenet of the faith and announced that his portrait would be put up in a religious museum; and David Cameron used his story to illustrate a point about broken Britain.
But the other day the Evening Standard published an investigation into Singh’s life, which emphasised a single but very important detail. It turns out that the reason Singh had not visited his family in India for a decade — not when his son Gurinder was born in 2000, nor even when his three-year-old daughter Gurpreet died in 2002 — was that he was one of Britain’s estimated 750,000 illegal immigrants. If he had left these shores, he would have never been allowed to return.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/sathnam_sanghera/article7019617.ece
I’m with Boris on this one.
232 - on the possitive side my on line p*ker winnings are in dollars and the only deposit I ever made was at just uunder 2 to the pound - As I have many multiples of that original stake now its lovely jubbly.
Front page of the Inde suggests they are still searching for their marbles which are scattered over the floor of the asylum.
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/UK-News/Newspaper-Front-Pages-On-Tuesday-February-8-2010/Media-Gallery/201002215545085?lpos=UK_News_Left_Promo_Region_0&lid=GALLERY_15545085_Newspaper_Front_Pages_On_Tuesday%2C_February_8%2C_2010
233.
What is the justification for airing a personal and ‘friendly’ interview so close to the election? Aside from all this crying nonsense, the whole event seems deeply cynical.
Johnno - thanks, i’ll catch it on 4OD
George Young floundering on Newsnight. Camera zooms to the whites of his eyes, as he lies…
god,I’am beginning to hate huhne,I see newsnight bringing up ashcroft,pathetic.
224 I try to fight my inherent cycnicism.
I agree that Brown had agreed in broad terms, if not indeed in detail, what areas were and were not off limits and doubtless Piers & Alistair chatted, Alistair prepped Gordon. I can’t help but wonder how the professional PR person that is Sarah Brown was involved.
Glad to see Marcia about. Even gladder to hear that she has been knocking doors!
Since a few of the Scottish/North British contingent are about, I though that you might like to know that John B Dick has posted a rather long, rambling analysis of Argyll & Bute (where he lives) over at UK Polling Report:
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/2449#comment-598721
The latest TNS-BMRB poll gives the follwing result in Argyll & Bute (currently LD), in the UK Polling Report calculator:
Con, Lab, SNP, LD
25.91%, 25.21%, 24.88%, 22.67%
Overall, a very interesting thread over there today. Even has Mark Senior! For added spinniness. ;D
Good performance by Chris Huhne on Newsnight for a change….
240,lord paul mate
227 laurenceallan
It was two and a half hours pre-edit. I understand it will be one hour edited.
Plenty of discretion then as what to include.
240. And so says our intrepid and neutral reporter from the danger of his living room behind his rose coloured safety goggles.
“Has Rod Crosby imploded with shock or just rubbished Andy’s work because there is no swingback?”
Since I’ve studied just about every analysis of the election that has been published, I’m hardly likely to be fazed by something here, am I (interesting though it was)…
236 tim
Well… so am I - but the mechanics of it would be fiendishly complicated.
I would start by demanding a big upfront tax wodge - similar to the non-doms levy - to partially compensate the taxpayer for the loss they have had over the years, and to soften the blow politically.
On this particular story, though, I was a bit bemused by the fact that he hadn’t seen his son. If he had such a good wage, then surely his family could come and visit him here, on tourist visas?
184.”154 “The main I really liked about Cam’s speech today was when he said his government would NOT be dictated to by the 24hr news cycle. That he would just get on with governing and the media could get on with what they want to do.””
Plato, I too was very pleased to hear that as well. But the proof will be in the pudding as they say. I will be very disappointed if he doesn’t stick to that promise.
229 Stuart Dickson
I had assumed that the Speaker’s warning that NO MP could raise the issue of criminal proceedings on any of those charged, was partly aimed at ensuring that the MP listed to ask Brown the first question would not take the opportunity to make any staement on the subject.
Seven houses Huhne who claimed for a trouser press on expenses is lecturing the rest!
Huhne is Marmite, but less popular.
250. The BBC news reports have said that he claimed today to have been hung out to dry. That would make an entertaining first question.
253 Then it’s time he named the whip.
A familiar pattern. Labour’s reluctant core vote becoming slightly less backward in coming forward, and telling pollsters they’ll vote for 5 more years of Gordon Brown as the election approaches. There’s a limit to this recovery, and it doesn’t have the legs to make a significant differenct to the result.
I think some of Labour’s vote might still be vulnerable to the Lib Dems. Perhaps Clegg needs to be a bit more anti-Tory and Pro-Labour to woo a few more wavering Labour supporters?
248 - I don’t think the guy was particularly well paid.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2010/jan/11/sukhwinder-singh-stabbing-family-speaks
251,or the lib dems lecturing the rest - michael brown.
251 - Cameron opened up an open goal for the Lib Dems today.
242. I can’t help but wonder how the professional PR person that is Sarah Brown was involved.
Especially as Sarah Brown has made crying her personal speciality.
Huhne is on Newsnight every single week. Given his seat is pretty marginal, wouldn’t he be better spending more time campaigning that sitting in the Newsnight studio? I wonder if he’s a bit complacent?
258 Deliberaely forget this man?
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6336204.ece
Lib Dem election chief Lord Rennard to step down after expenses row.
Clegg = bottled it = Gordon.
258,tim,lately your post have been crap,I expected better tim,you must be malfuntioning
look at 257 buddy.
243. Did TNS poll in Argyll and Bute?
259 Clear sex divide when it comes to cynicism about Sarah.
From the Populus Poll
We’ve done the Michael Brown thing a million times.
Should the Tories return cash that was soiled by Archers grubby mitts?
Of course not.
261 - The key being stepped down.
Camerons Shadow Cabinet is chock full of the tainted.
Oh gawd, Newsnight Scotland have got Brian Monteith in the studio for a Conservative perspective!!
Thank god for the former SNP and Labour pair for bringing some perspective into the debate tonight.
263 NoOffenceAlan
Who knows? They polled in 55/59 constituencies. As they do face to face polling, I’d guess that the Northern Isles were an area that they didn’t poll!
Just for fun, if the polls continue to narrow at the same rate as they have done for the past six months (as I think they will), my number cruncher says both parties will end up with 279 seats on polling day in May, both miles away from a majority.
It’s going to be Feb 1974 all over again, except this time the LibDems will be absolutely essential for forming any kind of government for this country…
265. Strong stuff.
I have had two people raise emigration with me very seriously - in a matter of fact sort of way - in the last couple of days.
If you have teenage children, it seems it become a matter of normal thought processes.
266 correction
tainted = talented
265. Nice to know the majority of people think the country will get better when Cameron, with the aid of Lord Ashcroft, gets in and rescues them from this socialist nightmare.
Good to see Blair, Campbell and Straw all starting to unravel over Iraq - wonder if Straw will end up standing down in Burnley before the election.
Portrait of Dorian Blair
starring..
–Antonio Blairio as “Dorian”
–Baroness Hecate of Glamis as “The Procuress”
–Iago Campbell as “The Knifeman”
–Mandy Mandelson as “3rd Rentboy”
–Caliban “Queenie” McDoom as “The Portrait”
and surprise special guest star
–Jack “Razorblades” Straw (Marxist-Leninist) as “The Pimp”
271 - Correction.
Spell man = Spelman.
Is 1974 really your idea of fun RC?
The more huhne talks, the more potent the vote yellow get brown message becomes. The lib dems really need to stop critising the tories with every breathe. It is labour who are unpopular and who people want rid of. Its partly why I beleive they are doing less well in the polls than they should be. If there is a hung parliament, then I can see the lib dems ripping themselves apart as huhne’s men go labour, others go tory.
266. His money was legitimately earned and he is hugely philsanthropic.
There is no evidence he has any grubby mits.
Pathetic.
And potentially libellous. Save that he neither as mean nor as small minded as the creatures you dwell with.
ps.You used to be much more effective than this.
Wow, the MSM going big on Cameron’s open attack on Brown today. I suppose it makes a change from years of anonymous Brownite briefings about colleagues dripped into the ears of willing journalists. I can almost smell the whiff or hypocrisy from up here.
269. Rod, all thats happened in the past six months is that Labour have recovered their Expensegate losses. Over a 12 month period there has been no recovery of Labour’s position.
275. Yes, it sends me delirious.
277 - Yet again your shallowness and lack of knowledge shines through.
His money was legitimately earned and he is hugely philsanthropic.
Are you forgetting the libel payout, or did you not know in the first place?
277 *philantropic.
[Do I need to define it aswell as spell it? Labour get taxpayers to pay for everything.]
240.Is it just me, or is that a potentially libellous comment?
Yuck.
277. I’ll try again…
*philanthropic.
[Do I need to define it aswell as spell it? Labour get taxpayers to pay for everything.]
Miss edit the facility.
And Labour are still doing WORSE than they were at the end of 2008….
279. Arithmetically that may be so, but there is no obvious reason why the momentum should suddenly stop.
There are at least two independent studies which arrive at broadly the same forecast as the “swingback” theorem - so I’m sticking with it, thank you…
283 Apt really Chris.
Didn’t Labour start the day with the word, ‘desperate’?
I am sure Ashcroft couldn’t give two hoots what a Labour worker like tim says.
278. It’s not just the whiff of hypocrisy from the media. There’s also a feeling of end of an era degeneration. It’s all so tired and jaded and unprincipled.
286.
“Arithmetically that may be so”
Thank you!
“but there is no obvious reason why the momentum should suddenly stop.”
Yes there is, its called James Gordon Brown!
Condemnation of the British press that Afghanistan is on no front pages tomorrow.
‘THE TIMES is pleased to confirm that it has no evidence that Mr Ashcroft or any of his companies have ever been suspects of money laundering or drug-related crimes.’
Would be better if you confirmed it too tim.
Reading the Times poll with the question “Would you emigrate if you could?” stirs recolections of having seen this before from time to time over the years, with similar results (42% say yes). Can anyone with a better memory/search expertise than me advise?
The battle between the hedgies and the central banks over Greece is hotting up.
The four main Greek stock exchange indices fell between 3.5% and 4.6% today. And this after a fall of over 9% last week.
Some fingers are going to get very badly burnt. But whose?
re 286 Rod I’d have thought seeing the whites of their eyes, metaphorically peaking, as the hand hovers over the ballot paper will send the trend into a steep decline. The only reason you say that there’s no reason for the trend to reverse is because it suits your bye election model.
Front pages up at last.
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/Sky-News-Archive/Media-Gallery/20080641292313
I am off. Don’t want to encourage tim into making the wrong sort of comments on Mike’s site.
G. night.
290 tim
But the audience for the press coverage is currently in Afghanistan. It is getting this ‘audience’ out that is the objective.
292 By ‘time to time’ do you mean at the end of a Labour Gov when the country is broke?
191 - Sally, am I expected to take someone seriously who posts that all Archers money was legitimately earned and still hasn’t realised her mistake?
“Baffled students watch Dave try to hijack their generation”
“Dave kept explaining how only he and the Tories could fix our broken politics. Later he was asked if he could — finally — tell us the tax status of the Tory party donor Lord Ashcroft. But Dave who, only minutes ago was a beacon of new generational transparency and openness, could not tell us. Not only that, he could not tell us why he could not tell us.”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/parliamentary_sketch/article7019929.ece
FPT “127.I wonder if at some stage the LP will change the rules for electing their leader, they’ve certainly got good cause too ? All this loyalty cr@p when it’s against the party’s interest is bizarre.”
Lot of that was down to making life difficult for Militant and other entryist groups - or rather the unsuccessful obvious entryist groups as opposed to the successful stealthier ones.
@@@
“There seems to be a lot of right wing non conservatives about.”
There always have been. It’s just the various Anglosphere Tory parties never sussed it out properly like the clever Jap ones who stayed in power for 60 years.
Hans Blix on Hardtalk just now.
298,shall we have a vote on PB,who take’s tim serious and who take’s the lovely sally serious,my moneys on sally.
tim malfunctioning again
Extrabet ticked up another point to the Tories since this afternoon
Anyone know what the best odds are for Labour to emerge with the most seats?
295 ‘Don’t want to encourage tim into making the wrong sort of comments on Mike’s site.’
Tim claims to have pots of money. I’m sure he’d be able to afford to fight off any potential action were his details revealed under instruction from the courts.
There is plenty on Lord Ashcroft, if you know where to look..
http://www.wsws.org/articles/1999/aug1999/ash-a04.shtml
302 johnno
Mrs Nat would take serious umbrage if I got serious about sally!
Evening all.
Amidst all the excitement, I think the potentially most important story this evening has hardly been commented on - the story linked to by Me at 112, on the proposed funding of care for the elderly by grabbing their estate on death, irrespective of whether they actually needed the care - in other words, a sort of longevity tax. [For the purposes of this post, I'm assuming the report is true, which remains to be confirmed of course].
Irrespective of whether this is a good idea, it sounds electorally suicidal. What is most remarkable about the suggestion is that Brown has been making a big deal about so-called ‘free’ care for the elderly.
The political danger behind the compulsory scheme is that the child of a parent that needed little expensive social care in their old age would still see the levy being imposed on their parent’s estate.
It is also hard, cabinet members recognise, to persuade voters that they would have been worse off under the status quo. It is argued that those with more than £22,250 in assets are currently forced to pay for their care themselves by selling their homes or using up planned inheritance funds.
This is a good example of the kind of danger Labour have placed themselves in. They could have suggested this as an equitable way to fund expensive and necessary care at a time when money is desperately short. That would always have been a very hard policy to sell, but at least it would have been honest.
Instead, offering ‘free care’ in one speech, to a big fanfare, and a few weeks later revealing that this ‘free care’ will cost you £20,000 whether you use it or not (assuming you’ve got £20,000 in your estate, of course), would be a piece of monumental political mismanagement.
It will be interesting to see whether it sees the light of day - and whether Cammo presses them on it.
Does anyone know who does the polling for the Tories and Labour?
302 johnno
She’d take even more umbrage if I got serious about tim!
Archer.
Cough up tim.
Please post the comments I have made about him?
292 Back in 2006 over 50% said they had considered emigrating at some point but only 13% said they were hoping too. Maybe a slightly different question, but it look like after 3 years of Brown 3 times as many people want to get away from him as under Blair.
Kevin Maguire just made a tit himself on sky.
Was about to say something good came out of the populus poll, and quote something good from the poll and he then says, nope, that doesnt help.
304. Coral offer 13/2
311. SallyC
tim @266 “Should the Tories return cash that was soiled by Archers grubby mitts? Of course not.”
SallyC @277 “His money was legitimately earned and he is hugely philsanthropic. There is no evidence he has any grubby mits.”
310
314. Thanks.
311 - Post 277.
More depth needed.
Blix essentially saying that there was no WMD basis for the attack on Iraq.
Blix “puszzled by some of the things Jack Straw said.” “He is wrong”.
My mistake.
Mistook to for Ashcroft, which must have been clear from my later posts.
In any event, you are still smearing someome without producing evidence.
I am afraid you smear so many, it becomes a blur in the end.
Rod, last well you said that the 2010 election result was pre-ordained right from May 5th 2005, no matter what occured in the in-trim period. Yet just a few months ago you were pinning all your swingback hopes on someone like Postie Al replacing Gord.
Also, I remember ages ago you said if the Tories had elected Ken Clarke as leader rather than Cameron, that the Conservatives would probably have secured a majority.
So do personalities and events matter? Or don’t they? Your not making all this up as you go along are you?
well = week. Hey, its late.
320 - I think after todays performance at Chillcott, Jack Straw is puzzled by some of the things Jack Straw said.
Gabble, good boy, gooooood boy. tim may give you a nice tickle on the tummy now.
3 more soldiers killed today in Afghanistan (and 113 in the last 12 months).
That brings the total to more than in the Falklands.
At least those killed in the Falklands died for something worthwhile.
308 “I think the potentially most important story this evening has hardly been commented on - the story linked to by Me at 112, on the proposed funding of care for the elderly by grabbing their estate on death”
I’d agree but i thought it was so mental they’d realise and back-track after 2.2 nano seconds of focus grouping.
325. d(too)
It would have been cruel to let it go on any further.
POSCWAS.
314 - More profitably he should combine the 10/1 Labour seats 275-299 with 25/1 Labour seats 300-324 at Hills.
321 - No evidence that Archers libel payout wasn’t legit?
Really, you need to read more.
194.Just seen that Guardian headline on Sky. You have to ask how its going to go down with the public after the last week in politics?
Very poorly I would imagine, the government really have not got a handle on the expenses issue at all.
329. The 10/1 shot looks tasty… Thanks.
325 It’s a real acheivement that they have reached such a level of insulting, we have to divide them into leagues.
I assumed we were in the premier league, Ashcroft being a leader in the table an a left obsession, not 3rd division, Archer being so old hat I’d forgotten he’d existed.
326.Again, MSM have gone AWOL. I do not expect them to publicly cover actual events on the ground as this operation gets under way, but I do expect the tragic death of three soldiers to be given more prominence than this on the BBC frontpage.
328. I’ll try to make the same judgement when you lose you seat.
332 - Just post on things you know about Sally, there must be some.
The exciting thing is that the question of whether it’s a hung parliament or a substantial Tory majority will come down to recounts in about 25 seats. It doesn’t matter how much we analyse the polls really, although that’s always interesting.
335. Gabble’s effort was much better.
Leave the put downs to him.
Piers Morgan interview may well help Brown but the effect may be limited by a lower than expected audience.
It’s on from 10.15pm to 11.15 pm Sunday night so quite late - I’d expect an audience of around 4 million.
The other point is how many people will see possible clips on News programmes. This is where Brown is unlucky - ITV News next Sunday is at 6.05pm and 11.15pm. So only one preview showing and that will only get around 3 million (coming after Regional News).
That just leaves the question of whether BBC will show a clip on their News. BBC1 has a 10pm - if that shows a clip that will significantly boost the number who see it. If not the total number who see it is unlikely to exceed 6m which is not enough to have a major impact.
RodC
Not as tasty as this bet I had with Hills last year:
“How Many Seats Will Labour Win At The Next General Election? – 275 - 299 seats @ 33/1″
I would have thought you would have gone all in already with hung parliament bets?
338. Thats pretty much a “graveyard” slot isn’t it?
No answer from Rod to my questions at 322 then?
339 another richard
I suspect Rod is only trying to hedge his >100 Tory majority bet with Corals.
Daily Mail - Brown ditches his KitKats for NINE bananas a day diet to look ‘radiant’ for General Election
Sometimes there are just no words that will capture the car crash that is the Downing Street PR machine.
Further to 338, Sunday is also Valentine’s Day which may slightly further depress the late evening audience.
Labour are currently defending 20 seats with majorities of less than 1,000 votes (which is recount territory), and 20 seats are obviously worth 40 seats in terms of an overall majority.
Just goes to show how the difference between being short by 5 seats or having a majority of 30 can come down to an relatively small number of votes.
344. Surely not? Nothing says romance like Piers Morgan cuddling up to Gord…
Has anyone compared the andy cooke analysis with VIPA yet?
We’re living in broken Britain, say most voters
“Voters are deeply pessimistic about the state of Britain today, believing that society is broken and heading in the wrong direction, a Populus poll for The Times has found.
Nearly three fifths of voters say that they hardly recognise the country they are living in, while 42 per cent say they would emigrate if they could.”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article7020009.ece
And what did Gordo say to the Observer on Sunday…on yes he ridiculed the idea that Britain is broken in anyway…wrong side of another dividing line me thinks!
343 - I thought he looked poorly today in the HoC, washed out and tired.
Caledonian Mercury - How ‘lunchgate’ became more than a storm in a teacup
Hundreds of Cadbury workers at a factory that the new owner Kraft promised to keep open face losing their jobs.
The Somerdale plant at Keynsham, near Bristol, will in effect shut down with the loss of 400 jobs, although it may remain open with a skeleton staff, The Times has learnt.
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/consumer_goods/article7019957.ece
333 ChristinaD, and to think that in 2006 John Reid as defence secretary, expressed the hope that British troops in Afghanistan would accomplish their mission without a shot being fired,
How wrong he was.
347 - I have, if the Tories poll 40% then they need a lead of 6% to get a majority.
Interestingly, if the tories poll above 41% then the lead needs to be around 5%
Both these predictions assume that the lib dems stay roughly where they polled in 2005, and that the Tories and Labour do worse/better in Scotland and Wales
Gordo as Banana Man….
Now what was that rumour about strict dietary requirements again?
340. Yes. As well as post 344 I think the start of the working week makes people a bit more inclined to go to bed early on a Sunday evening.
This is quite an important bit of luck for Cameron. If this interview was shown at say 9pm on a weekday I think the total audience who would see it would be almost double - the programme would get a bit more but crucially there would be extensive plugging in the much longer early evening news programmes.
All news programmes on Sundays are very short which will mean that at most any plug will be pretty short. Cameron will be hoping for a major news story to get in the way.
re 343 oh dear - hyperkalaemia might do for my Party leaders bets’ profits when he keels over with a heart attack.
332. I have never said the exact result was pre-ordained - that would be crazy.
I have said that a hung parliament was always odds-on favourite from 5th May 2005. Something quite different.
Surprising as it may seem I now believe Cameron to be a negative to the Tories (and justly deserved, imho). He peaked too soon, and his shallowness will be exposed in the campaign.
Ken Clarke just happens to be my favourite Tory politician (it must be his love of jazz and generally not taking himself too seriously)…
Could the Gordo interview be on the grave yard shift because actually it might be really really boring. The Tears for Piers has already been downgraded to far less than first reported, more a show of emotion of images of his children. All the other stuff that has been trailed including about Gordo says that Tony broke his word of the “deal” etc really only excited political saddos.
excited -> excites..
358 gordo interview sunday night get a bit of sympathy, monday morning go to the palace and call an election !!
One final point on this - Sunday is a very heavy day of sport - England Six Nations rugby game + 2 big FA Cup ties + FA Cup draw. So those 15 minute news bulletins are going to have at least 5 minutes of sport.
Unless there is absolutely no other news then I doubt any Brown preview is going to exceed about one minute.
343.Kristin, I missed that today.
Help needed, please.
Do you think the article below definitely means that the Halifax and Calder Valley seats will be counted on the night of the election, even if the election coincides with the local elections on May 6th?
The way the article has been written makes it a bit ambiguous:
http://www.halifaxcourier.co.uk/news/Election-count-will-be-held.6050567.jp
81. “This is a riveting debate between the Crosbyite swingbackers
…You mean to say I have a supporter? !!
and the Cookeite variable swingers.”
The two things are distinct. The swingback theorem deals only with vote shares, not the outcome based on those votes. So both Andy and I could be right, although I personally doubt it.
Hopelessly Hung Parliament is the outcome, I say…
Just wondering, did anybody watch the Dispatches this evening where they went undercover in the Post Office. In people’s opinion, is it worth watching?
353.”Both these predictions assume that the lib dems stay roughly where they polled in 2005, and that the Tories and Labour do worse/better in Scotland and Wales”
TSE, that is quite a tall order for the Libdems IMHO, and that is just in Scotland and Wales, never mind England.
The most important thing about this Populus poll is the fieldwork dates - a marked decrease in the Tory lead even after news of the charges against the MPs.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1249471/Shambolic-unfair-Watchdogs-damning-verdict-immigration-service-13-years-Labour-government.html
Incompetence and delays at the immigration service are causing untold misery and costing the country a fortune, according to a scathing assessment yesterday.
362 - Christina here you go..
http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/democracylive/hi/house_of_commons/newsid_8504000/8504148.stm
367. The last Populus was a month ago.
Even Rod accepts this is a swing to the Tories on recent polling.
Despite the headline, AV referendum expected to sail through tomorrow…
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/pm-faces-labour-revolt-over-vote-reform-1893308.html
How are you going to vote, NPMP? And, briefly, Why?
SNP Tactical Voting - Satire’s Downfall
Totally agree with Jeff on this one. I saw the story earlier today in the P&J, and I just assumed that their journalists don’t bother to follow the political blogsphere that closely. But I wonder if this is a sign of the situation on the ground in Angus right now. Someone is losing their sense of humour big time. And I wouldn’t be to quick to try and link this to another bloggers recent and very regrettable shannigans, they are not even comparable.
Does anyone remember one of the first spoofs, the one that had the SNP beating Labour??
370. About 0.5%. Don’t expect it to be sustained…
Jay Blanc who has a UK Election Trend blog and who posted on pb.com a couple of threads back, has just blogged on Angus Reid:
Looking at the movement of recent polling shows a clear trend across the different pollsters. Except for AR. AR Polling has been an almost straight line, within only one or two points around 40/23/20. According to AR, public opinion hasn’t had statistically significant change since October. If the next AR poll comes out with another 40/23/20 split, then I will continue feeling confident in the decision to exclude them.
This brings me to a conclusion. AR polling is not simply offset to a “house effect” that tilts their numbers in one way. AR are measuring something different to what other Pollsters are measuring. And what ever they are measuring is not reacting in the same way as what other polls show.
This is odd, as AR have an apparently good track record in Canada.
Follow http://ukelectiontrend.blogspot.com/2010/02/what-are-angus-reid-measuring.html for full context.
It seems the intent of Blanc’s blog is to attack AR and justify his decision to exclude AR polling results from his aggregated/averaged polling figures. Yet nothing new is added to the sum of our knowledge about AR. The right questions are asked but remain unanswered.
I sense the beginning of a small loggers skirmish here.
374. He’s right, you know…
On the Piers Morgan interview, what are the chances of Brown getting bad publicity because of a tiny viewing audience.
10.15 on a Sunday is hardly prime time.
375 Rod Crosby
I didn’t comment on whether he was right or wrong. Just that he was unable to offer any arguments in support of his conclusion.
I know that you hold the same view of Angus Reid. Perhaps you could assist Mr. Blanc with his justifications?
377. The consistent huge difference between AR and the rest speaks for itself. No further arguments are necessary…
One or the other(s) are vastly wrong.
andy, shandy, vipa, deepa, rodcrosby, nosby.
My money has gone on.
Extremes are where the value is. Take your pick, but the central forecasts are over done, the chances of extremes (either way) are under called.
oldnat.
Are you lurking?
Just wondered whether you have reached any conclusions on the recent Scottish poll. You may have posted on this on the previous thread but I haven’t had the time to read it yet.
379 - Absolutely. I am heavily on a hung parliament and also on blowout Tory wins (helped by some ridiculous prices, even in the last week, which surprised me). A modest Tory victory will be just about profitable.
Rod Crosby
As it is the middle of the night and no one is watching, could I ask a favour of you?
I read both Andy Cooke’s lead articles and, whilst I fully agreed with the conclusions, I hardly understood a f*cking word of the justifications.
Can you enlighten a poor, simple fool as to what he is on about?
Why did the UK Election Trend website exclude the YouGov People poll from its model?
YouGov Telegraph (29 Jan) was included - Con lead 7%
YouGov People (28 Jan) was excluded - Con lead 9%
Scroll down to bottom article on link:
http://ukelectiontrend.blogspot.com/
This point has probably already been made, but one reason why Brown may want to have this Commons vote on the electoral system could be to slightly undermine the result of the election on May 6th, so that even if the Tories win a majority he is able to say: “this is the Tories winning an election under an old-fashioned system which the House of Commons has already voted to get rid of”.
381 Aaron
There goes me too. But the hung parliament is the hedge.
379.blairf, totally agree. And my limited constituency punts are backing that hunch.
380 Seth
I’ve been trying to avoid posting on this till the tables appear! That is until I’m provoked, which has resulted in my posting elsewhere.
FWIW interim thoughts
First, the following caveats about TNS - 1. they use face to face interviews 2. they do not weight by prior voting 3. they do not weight by likelihood to vote.
These would not matter if they had a good track record, but they overestimated Labour by 6-7% in the 2 months leading up to the 2005 election, and also overestimated SNP and Labour prior to the 2007 election. It does look as if their methodology overestimates the strength of the largest party.
However, taking the data that has been released in Dinwoodie’s embarrassingly badly written piece in the Herald, it does confirm the dominant theme that we have seen for some time now (by all pollsters) of the significant collapse in the LD vote. For now, I’ll restrict my comments to the TNS’s Westminster voting intentions. The 2005 election, together with the last 3 TNS Scottish polls gives us
Party, 2005 Apr 09, Nov 09, Feb 10
Lab, 39%, 36% (-3), 39% (0), 42% (3)
SNP, 18%, 32% (14), 25% (7), 26% (8)
Con, 16%, 19% (3), 18% (2), 18% (2)
LD, 23%, 9% (-14), 12% (-11), 11% (-12)
Oth, 4%, 4% (0), 6% (2), 3% (-1)
(figures in brackets are changes since 2005)
I suspect that one factor may be the LDs having dumped two Scots in succession as UK leader! It is noticeable that the redistribution of LD support, on a range of polls, has tended to be 50-75% to SNP, with the remainder split between Lab/Con/Green.
Scotland does not, however, vote as a unit. My guess is that Labour’s concentration on GARL and “they hate Glasgow” has had resonance in West Central Scotland, and John Mason may well lose Glasgow East. An SNP breakthrough in West Central seems unlikely!
TNS does, however, also normally produce regional breakdowns and, while they have their own known problems, they may also give better indicative data as to constituencies under FPTP.
382. The great thing about an electoral system of 650 seats, four parties and 25 million votes is just about anything is in theory possible.
I’ll say no more…
Today’s Scottish poll had the Labour vote on 42% for Westminster elections, even higher than what they won in 2005. Sounds like the anti-Tory, anti-English vote is just as strong as it has ever been.
Maybe Labour might even be able to hold onto seats like Dumfries & Galloway.
367. If you look at the dates of the polls around the expenses scandal, the first poll, populus, 2 days afterwards didnt record any change compared to a poll just before (im ignoring bpix as its not apart of the bpc). It wasnt till the 14th may field work polls that the parties took a recorded hit. This was 6 days after the scandal broke, so id wait till any polls in the next few days before drawing any conclusions.
389.Andy JS, read oldnat’s post just above yours, and remember that we only live across the border from you and not Mars. Just remember, Labour are as likely to piling up votes where they don’t need them in Scotland as anywhere else in the UK right now. That point doesn’t get told enough on here.
389 Andy JS
“even higher than what they won in 2005″ misrepresents the Scottish situation.
The 2001 vote split in Scotland was Lab 43.27 % : SNP 20.06 % : LD 16.34 % : Con 15.58 %.
In 2005, both Lab and SNP lost votes to the LDs. Since then, Lab has regained some, but the SNP seem to have regained all their loss and gained some of those originally lost by Labour to the LDs.
391 ChristinaD
I always like the fact that on this site, many of our southern neighbours are knowledgeable about Scotland. A few, however, seem to imagine that we all live in a huge Glasgow NE!
It seems that Mr Brown cannot even lead his Labour MPs into battle with any confidence. In order to defeat the reactionary self-interested Tories over a voting reform referendum, he has to rely on the Lib Dems.
But the Lib Dems will vote for AV only as the first step towards the abolitiion of the totally discredited FPTP system. They are only “on board” for the first stage of the journey towards STV.
So there is poor old Brown - confronted by Tories, abandoned by his own Labour MPs, and backed by Lib Dems only as far as they see any point in it, which is not very far.
Who exactly is advising him? Anybody?
The fact is Labour won 39.5% of the vote in Scotland in 2005. The latest poll from TNS has Labour on 42%, so they are higher than 2005 which is certainly not the case in England and Wales, and they must be doing worse in England and Wales than the overall figures suggest (such as with today’s Populus poll) to compensate for that good Scottish rating.
389.If you also look at the 2005 GE, the Libdems benefited from Labour on Iraq and the Tories on Howard and that campaign.
In 2007, the SNP benefited from being the vehicle to oust the Lab/Libdem coalition in Holyrood.
In 2010…. I not ready to tell you who is going to benefit from Brown’s government or the SNP administration in Holyrood. But I doubt the Libdems will keep their 2007 share, nor will Labour be gaining seats outside their heartlands.
393.oldnat, indeed. Take my seat, Labour do they exist in Scottish politics?
Good leader in the Telegraph for Cam
David Cameron’s bold plan to clean up Parliament
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/election-2010/7191214/David-Camerons-bold-plan-to-clean-up-Parliament.html
393 - oldnat, as someone who lives in Glasgow I get a bit sick of it being described by all and sundry as if it is some some of cess pit of benefit claimants who vote for anything with a red rosette, or nose going off some of the current lot.
395.Andy, I would rather stick my finger in the air to check the wind direction, than go with a UNS in a Scottish poll to tell me what is going to happen in a Scottish election. I don’t need to the polls to tell me which of the current seats are totally nailed holds up here. Its the other 20 I am interested in.
387 oldnat
Sorry for delay. Page refresh hung on me for a few mins.
Thanks for the post.
The problem of the Scotland polls for us down here is not so much the Lab vs. SNP battle (I guess your chief interest) but the LDs and Cons.
It probably matters not a jot to the outcome of seats in Scotland if the LD share of vote falls - even by the staggering amounts indicated - provided their vote holds up in their incumbencies. But it does matter down here as a large fall in the polled LD vote share in Scotland may lead to an understatement of LD support in E&W. I guess this applies much more to the LDs than to the Cons due to the relative size of the numbers involved.
As to the SNP to Lab swing, it is difficult to fit a political narrative to this. I guess all we can do is apply an “anything is in theory possible” theory.
395 Andy JS
Indeed which is why I (and others) have regularly disaggregated the England/Wales data from the GB polls. On average, that increases Tories in the South by around 2%, and decreases Labour there by the same amount.
Anyone who wishes to bet good money on the basis of UNS from GB polls, should save themselves the bother of placing bets, and just send a cheque to shadsy.
10.15 on a sunday guarantees a crap viewer total, most people are getting ready for work the next morning and aint gonna want to watch old glumface drone on. Thats why the leaks to drum up interest.
However Brown aint gonna like the Times Headline online
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article7020009.ece
We’re living in broken Britain, say most voters
Voters are deeply pessimistic about the state of Britain today, believing that society is broken and heading in the wrong direction, a Populus poll for The Times has found.
Nearly three fifths of voters say that they hardly recognise the country they are living in, while 42 per cent say they would emigrate if they could.
397 ChristinaD
“Take my seat” That’s remarkably generous of you!!!
I think we may have to wait an election or two to do that.
398.Kristin, I too get fed up with the natural assumption that prevails about Glasgow too. And I blame some of our erstwhile Scottish MSM who now bide down South for continuing to peddle that myth.
http://extras.timesonline.co.uk/pdfs/tthbrokenbritain.pdf
Is it time for a change 82% Yes.
Is society broken in Britain 70% yes
Theres your election lost for Labour right there.
403.oldnat, indeed, take my Holyrood seat in 2007, the SNP leap frogged the Tories who were nicely primed in 2nd place. While some think that my musing about the Libdems etc on here are purely partisan, that wee result back then, and totally at odds with the on the ground campaigns run by the parties is etched on my memory. And its why I do question some of the natural assumptions about this up coming GE.
405 -I’d agree with that.
398 kristin
I’m married to a lass from Kelvindale. My daughter lives in Shawlands. ChristinaD is quite right that much of the blame for the misrepresentation of Glasgow/Scotland is due to those who moved South 30 years ago, and have stereotyped the Scotland that they have a vague memory of then against the London they know now.
And here’s the Times leader..
Yesterday David Cameron went on the attack about restoring trust in the political system. He has a lot of work to do. Though 82 per cent believe that it is “time for a change”, only 40 per cent endorse the most obvious change on offer — voting Conservative. Why the gap? Clearly, the anger and disillusionment with politics extends far beyond the personal unpopularity of Gordon Brown and his Government.
Today’s poll suggests that 64 per cent believe Britain to be “on the wrong track”. That represents a pyrrhic victory for the Tories. They have reinforced the view that Britain requires radical change; they are yet to make such a convincing case that they are able to provide it. It is a crucial distinction. Britain is not broken. But today’s poll provides an excellent checklist that requires the urgent attention of the next government.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/leading_article/article7019841.ece
We may - a majority of us - agree that Labour deserve to lose, lose heavily and will do so. Their stewardship of the country has been a disaster.
That does not, however, mean that there has to be a Conservative Government.
The supposed Tory lead is very flaky, as we have seen in recent days.
Not being Labour is not enough to merit a victory. Cameron needs to start rethinking what his real objectives are. And then convince the electorate.
410 I don’t think the Tory lead is flaky at all, its been pretty constant for a long time now at around 10%.
Frankly, I’d take a bunch of banana eating monkeys before i’d want Labour and Brown back in again.
400 Seth
I take your point about the LD vote in England.
One of the many reasons that I normally ignore the Scottish samples in GB polls (unless they are good for us
) is that there is an inconsistency between the LD shares in them (higher) and the Scotland only polls (lower).
I suspect that this is due to Scots in the GB sample simply being adjusted to GB demographics, whereas Scottish polls are adjusted to our demographics.
That would suggest that the the LD support in E&W perhaps being understated. If I could be bothered
I’d check the MORI polls which do show England as a “regional” unit - although it actually needs England only polling to be clear on that.
371.According to that, apparently this AV vote will sail through the Commons tomorrow. And you know what, where is Conhom etc on this? I think that what happens tomorrow is ten times more important than Conservatives position on the Lisbon Treaty, or even UKIP. And what do we hear, the sound of almost silence. Just been looking at Tory Diary, nothing at all. Its no wonder that we saw the Lisbon Treaty pass without an amendment to be honest. Too busy fighting the wrong political wars at the wrong time. I barely visit the site once a day anymore.
They have spent too much time concentrating on Europe and not enough concentrating on Westminster over recent years. And what ever happens in Europe starts back here in London at that Parliament. No point spouting hot hair about the powers of the EU, if you are not prepared to understand that being in power at home is the only way to change that. They gave over more space to trying to dump the Scottish Tories in recent years than something as fundamental as changing our voting system. Lessons up here should have been learnt.
395. “The fact is Labour won 39.5% of the vote in Scotland in 2005. The latest poll from TNS has Labour on 42%, so they are higher than 2005 which is certainly not the case in England and Wales”
That’s based on a completely false assumption - you would need to have TNS figures from England and Wales to be able to say that. Looking at the Holyrood figures, my strong guess is that they’re overestimating Labour and quite possibly the SNP as well. In particular TNS (formerly System 3) have a long history of understating the Tories, so I don’t think it’s unreasonable to treat this poll with a heavy does of caution, not so much in relation to the gap between Labour and the SNP, but certainly when drawing conclusions about different trends north and south of the border.
TNS are not, of course, members of the British Polling Council.
408, ah, Shawlands is just down the road from me, and my son lives in Strathbungo. I guess I have to be thankful that my Labour MP in Glasgow South is one of the better ones though not unblemished by expenses.
It does have it’s problems but Glasgow is also populated by lots of hard working, tax-paying, decent people.
I still think GARL was a mistake though electorally, it is Scotland’s hub airport, serves people from a long way outside the area and should have the best transport links.
414 James Kelly
“TNS are not, of course, members of the British Polling Council.”
Are you sure of that? Anthony Wells seemed to think they were.
414 James Kelly
http://www.tnsglobal.com/news/news-6F9B8FF5E293466787A6D9B873F1AA47.aspx
“TNS BMRB is a member of the British Polling Council and details of exact question wording and full data tables will be made available within two working days of the original release.”
415 - before someone jumps on me, I am NOT saying that people who do not work or pay tax aren’t decnet, I was trying to point out the irony of those that make out Glasgoe if full of benefit scroungers.. not my words but you know the references you see on here from time to time. FWIW I am currently unemployed and so is my son after both being made redundant.
416. Oh, really? Maybe they’ve joined relatively recently.
415 - before someone jumps on me, I am NOT saying that people who do not work or pay tax aren’t decent, I was trying to point out the irony of those that make out Glasgow if full of benefit scroungers.. not my words but you know the references you see on here from time to time. FWIW I am currently unemployed and so is my son after both being made redundant.
sorry about double post I thought I caught it before I made corrections.. ah well..
You know what I mean.
415 kristin
GARL - Well Labour couldn’t answer the question when asked. Can you?
What would you cut from the Scottish Budget in order to build GARL? Remember you can’t use the money again that you threw away on the Edinburgh trams.
414.”TNS are not, of course, members of the British Polling Council.”
I thought they were members, in fact, wasn’t this only recently pointed out by another SNP poster on PB.com?
423. Point taken, Christina.
Have been keeping my eyes on currency trades and the Nikkei Index. No dramatic developments, but this announcement looks interesting:
TOKYO (NQN)–Shares in Index Holdings (4835) rose for the first time in four trading days Tuesday, after The Nikkei reported before the opening bell that the firm will sell an iPhone application that interprets dogs’ barks and displays the translation on the handset.
There is hope for the world economy yet!
418.Kristin, every city has area’s like those that are highlighted in Glasgow. And the fact that point is not made often enough really irks me. Not long ago, a friend form Glasgow phoned me to commiserate about the level of crime etc in Aberdeen. Yet, everyone talks of it as the Granite city or Oil capital of the UK.
Ah the trams, waste of money and I’ve always said that btw.
The site is becoming unusable at the moment grr
425 Seth O. Logue
It won’t sell unless the dog can program it to provide “I’m working late at the office, dear” background noises while he is busy with the bitch next door.
420.Kristin, my family are Irish descent working class in the central belt. Some are long time Labour voters, and yet, being out of work is not something they are used to at all. Being made redundant, yes, but always looking for that next job which hopefully comes along sooner rather than later. So that is why I feel so passionately about this.
test
I keep losing PB.com, just end up with a green back drop and that tweeting canary, nothing else.
On that note. Nite all.
428 oldnat
In my distant and callow youth, there was a ‘Gentleman’s Club’ in London’s West End which called itself “The Office”. This gave its Members similar opportunities to those propose as user benefits for the iPhone app.
The name may even have been described as subtle, but it was undermined by the club’s membership card which had a logo of two bare breasts overhanging a manual typewriter. Whether it was technology obsolescence or fear of the game being given away when the card was discovered in a Member’s wallet, the logo was subsequently dropped.
site crashing for me , night folks.
hope this gets through
The High Street has suffered an “awful” start to the year with the slowest January sales growth for 15 years.
The value of goods sold grew 1.2% in January compared with the previous year as bad weather kept shoppers away.
On a like-for-like basis - excluding store expansions and closures - sales fell by 0.7%, according to the British Retail Consortium (BRC).
http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8504766.stm
428 Kristin
That is dismal news, especially given the tendency for trade association announcements to be more bullish than the official statistics later reveal.
All in all, it is enough to make a grown-up Prime Minister weep.
436 the ONS trade figures are out tomorrow..
http://www.statistics.gov.uk/hub/index.html
Gordon obviously thinks the AV vote is in the bag, which it may be, but if he loses the vote it’ll be another terrible indication of his lack of judgement. Looking forward to the vote. Can’t understand why the LDs would vote for a system which is less proportional than the current one.
438 they’re still fighting the Tories. I would have thought if they can’t get their amendment through then they should abstain. The message vote Yellow get Brown is just being reinforced imo.
438. LDs will vote for AV as they are certain to get more seats under AV than FPTP.
eg a seat with a result:
Con 40
LD 39
Lab 15
oth 6
is 100% certain to go LD under AV.
Conversely it’s hard to see how LDs could lose any seats under AV. If they are in 1st place then either Con or Lab get eliminated and LDs get most transfers.
Is this AV vote a lose/lose for Gordon?
If he wins he looks like an utter shyster trying to force something through at 11:59:59. This can only serve to underscore his image as a bully and a cynic. The Tories will make hay.
If he loses it looks like he can’t even manage his own shenanigans. The Tories will again make hay.
Either way it counts for nothing as Dave will never implement it (this will be one of the many, many bullshit Labour laws that form part of the 2010 Ginormous Repeal Act).
What has Brown really got to gain here? Or is it more of the ’same old same old’ tactical bright sparks that becomes a strategic disaster 10 minutes later?
Andy, the libs needed to put up an alternative option of their own.
Voting for AV is madness and I have touched on it before that their approach to be a version of labour-lite is hitting them in the polls.
Interesting aside here on IMMIGRATION here in Oz, where the Labour Government who were now being hit hard by the conservatives in the polls just voted for a tightening to all immigration if applicants are not related to skills in Engineering, Medicine and Mining.
The limited water supplies has meant that the targets on population and immigration have been reduced heavily. lots of land, not much water. And only so many services can be provided.
All those people who come in as teachers, cooks and hairdressers covered in Wanted Down Under will no longer have that option.
20,000 applications now in are null and void.
No more Nicky whatserrname on the beach asking if the Bloggs family will leave their town to go to some warm spot in the antipodes. Those days have ended.
If they are doctors of course then they are more than welcome.
They have also announced the link between students coming to Oz to study and the almost guaranteed staying on and getting a permanent resident’s visa will also end. That was the reason many students went to dodgy colleges in Oz, very similar to the set up in England with dodgy Indian colleges with non studying students.
There was no fuss, Labour Govt here just did it effective immediately, saying the country cannot afford it, enough unemployed in low skills areas, and of course it was done so that the leaching of labour voters to the conservatives on this issue would end. That 3% or so leach will now return back to labour, who took a pounding in the polls over letting every asylum seeker in, even those who came in having paid a smuggler to get on a boat rom Indonesia. A quick stay in a detention centre and unless they were a terrorist they could get in and stay.
From having no illegal boats under the conservatives who made it hard to get in, they got 200 boats this year and well over 10,000 people. If allowed in (and few are kicked out once they get into Aussie waters), then genuine refugees who have applied correctly cannot enter under the Aussie quaota system.
Some refugee groups who came to Oz have committed far more crime pro rata than other groups, the Sudanese and Somalis have been quite quick to become crime statistics. After being saved from Darfur one would have hoped they had valued the opportunity more.
On epositive though, a Sudanese born chap who left the camps 8 yeras ago is now aged 18 has made a top AFL team, playing in front of 50,000 a week, a bit like an Iraqi making the Chelsea team, it is good news and he wants to be a better role model against crime for his community. Well at least that is what the papers are saying, cynical me i think they are putting words into the lad’s mouth.
Arriving illegally by sea is also being tightened a little, at least for PR, much to the chagrin of the bleeding heart brigade who think everyone who makes Aussie waters after being in Asia for years trying to plan their entry should get a straight visa. The public has not agreed.
The fact the normal plan for smugglers of asylum peole as cargo is after seeing an Aussie customs boat then blow your own boat up so they have to be rescued does not endear these people who are colloquially called queue jumpers. people died again last year when these boats were blown up and people were still onboard.
I mention this as the people in Britain and Oz are similar in thinking. The requirements in Britain are similar as well, after economic issues and a failure for multiculturalism to provide the nirvana that had been hoped.
Nothing real ahs beent achieved by either Brown or Cameron, lots of rhetoric in the hope of stopping support moving to more extreme parties, unfortunately with open EU borders it can do nothing to stop the significant and ongoing East European move into England, all it can do is stop the cheap labour supply from the Third World. Denying that millions have come in and that there is significant crime from the newer arrivals has not worked. People have made up their own minds where the no go areas are.
I do expect them to imply some sort of tightening even for EU countries, not sure how they can do it but I expect them to say they will do something. Have to stop the BNP somehow, but after all the lies from Pollies will the people really believe anything they say on Europe or Immigration or Crime? Three issues which are linked even if pollies refuse to see it.
More importantly, where will Baroness Scotland get her cleaners from now?