Is it because the marginals ARE different?
February 9th, 2010
The map that changed my view of the election
I’ve shown this before but it’s worth running again as we try focus on why things might be different in the marginals.
For combined with the Andy Cooke analysis and the marginals polling, including last week’s aggregated MORI data, a clearer picture is emerging of the dynamics of the coming election and a better sense of the outcome.
The map first appeared here in September 2007 in a guest slot by geographer, Blair Freebairn, in which he tried to show where the election would be won and lost. This had a great influence on my thinking which has been reinforced by what we’ve seen in the past few days.
Blair noted “Take a good look at the map. Notice anything? That these marginal seats will decide the next election is not news. But look at the pattern the 201 marginal seats highlighted make. They don’t concentrate in Wales, Scotland, London, the major cities or the truly rural areas. They aren’t really regional. They are heavily concentrated in Medium English Towns and Their Hinterlands (METTHs from now on).
From Scarborough via Stourbridge to Hereford. Or maybe Cleethorpes to Halifax. Stevenage to Swindon by way of Luton. From St Austell to Taunton and up to Stroud and Redditch. Kettering Corby and Broxtowe (hi Nick). How about Gravesham, Hastings and Basingstoke. Burton across to Southport via Chester. The marginals are strung like bunting through Britain avoiding the cities and the truly rural. It’s the towns, stupid!
These seats are clustered on a fine scale but not a large one, in other words they occur across all parts of the UK but where they do occur you get lots of them….”
Last month Blair added further to his insight when he observed while the Cameron family debate was in full flow that significantly more couples got married in the marginals that Labour if defending than in the party’s strongholds.
So we start to get a picture of what a key election battle-ground looks like. It’s a medium sized English town, which is not part of a big conurbation, and was generally held by the Tories until the great Blair landslide of 1997. By contrast with the cities it is more socially cohesive with a distinct demographic profile.
Politically they are likely to have seen a big decline in the number of Labour councillors and activists in the past decade or so.
It’s how the party messages play out in places like this that matter most - for this election is decided not in the 650 seats but the 100 marginals starting with target number 51 on the Tory list.
So policies designed to help the cities and the concerns of the big conurbations matter less in electoral terms than designed for the towns -
Hopefully we’ll have a marginals poll from Angus Reid in the next couple of weeks.
Mike Smithson
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I notice that I’ve arrived just in time for a new thread. I haven’t even caught up on the day’s backlog yet. I must have been delayed by (a) watching “Invictus” with hunky Matt Damon in it, and (b) writing Valentine cards. Second? Or perhaps poettararorincoaroac?
Yes!
Wibbler what does that say? Is it Allah?
Broxtowe -> Con gain
As we all discussed yesterday, the marginals must by definition be more ’swingy’ than the UNS swing. Of course this is where it will be decided.
Ooh…the wailing and gnashing of teeth from the left is going to be a joy to behold.
Great article Mike. Having been born and raised in just such a town I would agree on the more socially cohesive comment above. I’d really like to see a MSM readership profile for these same marginals, I think it would be interesting, has this been done? In my experience there are less of the Guardinista types even amongst professionals and from visits back home and regular phone contact with friends and family I’m hearing a lot of anger with the current government. I was shocked to hear someone I’ve known all my life saying they would vote BNP but on the whole there seems to be a move back to the Conservatives and this is directly from Labour.
3 Patrick
Hopefully (I don’t know any Farsi!) it should say “First”…
5 Intersting. Looks very much like Arabic to me.
Seems right to me - it’s the English towns that matter. I think they’re mainly in a radius of about 150 miles from the middle of the England, which happens to be situated in the vacant NW Leicestershire seat (where David Taylor was MP).
In other words, there aren’t that many of them in the far south-west, south coast, and north of Greater Manchester or West Yorkshire.
They’re mainly in the East/West Midlands, West Yorkshire, Lancashire, northern home counties such as Beds, Oxon, Herts, Greater London.
There are quite a few marginals in Kent, Crawley, Swindon, but they’re mostly very easy gains for the Tories and won’t be that crucial in terms of a possible Tory overall majority.
Google translate is your friend
Very bad news for David Cameron last night.
One of his key younger female candidates, Joanne Cash of Westminster North, has resigned as PPC following a campaign led by the Association Chairman and Agent. They objected to Cash getting pregnant and were scheming to deselect her.
CCHQ knew what was brewing but refused to clamp down on the Tory Taleban.
9 there’s an update on conhome
9.45pm: CCHQ mounting effort to reverse decision.
Let’s hope they succeed.
6 Patrick
Written Farsi is very similar (based on) Arabic, though the spoken language is a confluence of many linguistic branches, which makes it particularly eloquent.
See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Perso-Arabic_script
There is loads of really excellent Persian literature. I have only skim-read a translation of the Shah-nameh by Firdausi, but keep meaning to go back to it.
A shame modern Iran is so screwed up, given the brilliance of its heritage.
Mind you, the same can be said of Britain (perhaps to a slightly lesser degree) - we too have our very own megalomaniacal unelected dictator, who cloaks his malignant intentions with false piety.
9. I wonder if we’ll get another one of those vintage quotes along the lines of “but I have the greatest respect for women - my house doesn’t clean itself, you know!”.
Allegedly forcing out one of your brightest candidates for being pregnant is an absolutely toxic decision as far as the Tories’ new modern image is concerned. Cameron must be seething. The question is why didn’t someone at Central Office step in before it got to this stage? Must have taken their eyes off the ball.
Brent East is only about a mile away from Westminster North, yet they didn’t have any problem 23 years ago with having a pregnant Harriet Crawley as candidate standing against Ken Livingstone.
11 They’d certainly be a lot better mentally adjusted if they dumped Islam and reverted to Zoroastrianism. I’d expect that being culturally separate from most of the Arab world but yet in their wake as far religion goes must be a bit of a mindbender. It’d be as if the UK had been deeply into some sort of French religion for a few centuries. Imagine the paranoias that would brew up!
The Turnip Taliban certainly seem to have returned with a vengeance - and they have migrated to Westminster! Makes absolutely no sense.
Mind you, if it gives Cameron the opportunity to do another Clause 4 style taking-on-the-party (which helped him before) then it might be just the thing to get him back on track with female voters.
15 Maybe in westminster they are more the Trustfund Taliban - which makes the decision even harder to explain as these are not farmer Giles types.
The latest election night information for Tory targets 51 to 150 are as follows:
Starting on Thursday night: 53
Starting on Friday: 10
Undecided/no response: 37
http://tinyurl.com/ye6vutz
10. Quite a bit of damage likely to be done already. If she doesn’t leave quietly then it’ll get messy very fast.
18 It will be messy - but not newsworthy. Us anoraks will give opinions. No-one else will. Remember that Labour girl who they tried to foist on some local association? I do sort of. was she someone’s daughter? Can’t remember. Who cares? We’re a trillion quid in debt and Labour want us to enjoy 5 more years of Gordon Brown. This will not be making any waves outside the bubble.
18 Eh ? If it’s true that she was forced out by becoming pregnant it’s not her that should be going quietly.
19 Patrick
I think it could be massive if not nipped in the bud. The Turnip Taliban saga was front page news for ages.
21 Are the Beeb onto it yet?
Cameron would be mad to allow local Conservatives to force out a pregnant candidate. Whatever the details of the case it will play out in the media as sexist Tories dinosaurs objecting to career women having babies.
Harman will have a field day.
20. Should perhaps.
In practice if she goes quietly the story dies, put out a press release saying time constraints from pregnancy/new baby prevent her devoting all her energies etc, look forward to putting my name forward again in the future when ready etc. Party wishes her the best, looks forward to future contribution. Then everyone shuts up. That’s the way to kill this quickly. Some speculation among anoraks but no legs or excitement.
If it develops into CCHQ vs the local party bigwigs with women’s rights issues on the side then it could run. Because if she comes back then local bigwigs probably have to go. Could get a fair bit of press attention, definitely local. Plus the splits in the local party and damages to the campaign.
Excellent contribution to our understanding, PB at its best!
Some statistical digging of the demographics and socio-economic-behavioural makeup of these towns is required.
Joanne Cash, 40, mysteriously resigned at a special meeting of her local Tory association after reportedly clashing with Conservative Party chairman Eric Pickles.
The Tory leader is thought to have made a frantic phone call to her last night to try to sort out the problem.
He is close to Miss Cash and her husband Octavius Black, whom he met at Eton.
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1249542/Joanne-Cash-Mystery-Cameron-cutie-Tory-candidate-quits-months-election.html#ixzz0f1CdpK7j
24 I couldn’t disagree more. Yes it needs dealt with quickly but I firmly believe Cameron has worked hard to modernise the party, this sort of behaviour is out of the 1950’s.
This is what JC tweeted a few days ago:-
Happy news I have been bursting to tell you: O and I are expecting our first baby in Aug. Huge support from DC down. Thrilled 6:14 PM Jan 29th from TweetDeck
Now, if Cameron supported her then why not now ?
Now I get it - the Tory association wants the suave Etonian husband, not the pregnant, state-school wife!
23 - Victor, Harman is a hypocrite on this subject, her loyalty to the sisterhood falls short when it comes to parachuting her husband into a safe seat. Meh.
Betting Post
Westminster North.
Labour 10/3 Ladbrokes.
Get on before Shadsy wakes up.
(Iraq a factor last time)
Joanne Cash’s Twitter page bio says: “RIP Dinosaurs”.
http://twitter.com/Joanne_cash
If the gist of the story is true, then it’s disgusting. I would find it quite refreshing having a pregnant woman as a candidate. After expenses, anything that makes prospective MPs appear a bit more human and ordinary can only be a good thing.
Of course, stories like this are very dangerous - They make Dave’s ’standing up to the old guard’ and ‘detox’ strategies appear like little more than a branding exercise.
Hmm…
First she was being got at by the local association.
Now it was that she had a row with Pickles.
And lastly I note that she is 40. That’s about the end of the line for most women to have a baby (note ‘most’ - not all - and without a high risk of the baby having someting you don’t want it to have). Is this her first and only one? Maybe it is a happy surprise and she’s more worried now about the baby? Maybe the row with Pickles was because she wanted out and he wanted her to stay! who knows?
I for one would appreciate having a lot more facts about this before I feel I can call it correctly.
Do hope this news about Joanne Cash isn’t connected to her being pregnant. If it is - I really do wonder what the numpties in the local branch are thinking of.
She’s been a good performer in the media too.
Do we actually know what has happened yet?
From ConHome comments
Saha said…
I was at the meeting tonight when the Party Chairman asked the members to support Joanne. Joanne left the meeting with her husband and a few minutes later came back in and told us she resigns over the election of the Association Chairman, Good bey and good luck Joanne, Westminster North is better off with out you.
Daily Mail has a report:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1249542/Joanne-Cash-Mystery-Cameron-cutie-Tory-candidate-quits-months-election.html#ixzz0f1CdpK7j
Astonishing news about JC particularly in a very metropolitan seat where you would n’t expect Taleban behaviour.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article7020009.ece
“We’re living in broken Britain, say most voters”
“Voters are deeply pessimistic about the state of Britain today, believing that society is broken and heading in the wrong direction, a Populus poll for The Times has found.
Nearly three fifths of voters say that they hardly recognise the country they are living in, while 42 per cent say they would emigrate if they could.”
“It suggests that 70 per cent believe that society is now broken, echoing a Conservative campaign theme of the past two years, while 68 per cent say people who play by the rules get a raw deal and 82 per cent think it is time for a change.”
36 - I’m sorry but that photo of the couple does them no favours!
36 Ah, actually a cat fight?
35 - if it was her own decision due to personalities then that’s her perogative and they’ll just have to move on. Shame, she looked a good candidate.
27. Ignoring the rights and wrongs of it that would kill the story quickly. If it turns into a fight then it’ll run.
39 Mr Black makes Douglas Carswell look like Brad Pitt
37 “particularly in a very metropolitan seat where you would n’t expect Taleban behaviour.”
erm…
36. Christ, that picture of her husband is freaky.
That mail article suggests she quit because of the election of someone she doesn’t get on with to association chairman. Which is odd and doesn’t ring true.
Border Agency coming in for some flak..
Ann Abraham, the Parliamentary Ombudsman, launched a wide-ranging attack on the immigration system and revealed that two new backlogs of up to 110,000 cases have built up because the agency was concentrating on clearing other delays.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/immigration/7189811/Border-Agency-cannot-perform-basic-functions-warns-watchdog.html
Nice to the the BBC continuing to refer to todays AV vote as electoral “reform” with Cameron against reform
As Matthew Paris points out it’s not electoral “reform”, a word that implies improvement, its “changing” the voting system.
Just checked out Joanne Cash`s `RIP Dinosaurs` on twitter - doesn`t sound a happy camper does she …
49 I can’t tweet from work. What does it say?
48 The good news is that it’s a crap story for Gordon either way - he pushes it through and it looks exactly what it is - gerrymandering, if it fails then he’s defeated.
And the LDs look venal if they support it.
I’m still amazed that something dreamed up a week ago is suddenly being voted on weeks before a GE!! Thankfully, the chances of it becoming reality is vanishingly slight.
48. Whether it’s an improvement or not is entirely a matter of perspective.
50 She’s stuck those words in her profile.
50 - see 30.
A novel idea - here have our MP!
http://snrednek.blogspot.com/
Not a good headline For Labour on the front page of the Times this morning.
We’re living in broken Britain, say most voters
Voters are deeply pessimistic about the state of Britain today, believing that society is broken and heading in the wrong direction, a Populus poll for The Times has found.
Nearly three fifths of voters say that they hardly recognise the country they are living in, while 42 per cent say they would emigrate if they could.
But worries over the pace of social change and dislocation are balanced by the belief that life will get better, according to the survey undertaken at the weekend.
It suggests that 70 per cent believe that society is now broken, echoing a Conservative campaign theme of the past two years, while 68 per cent say people who play by the rules get a raw deal and 82 per cent think it is time for a change.
Oops, already posted.
(finally caught up on the backlog of the last three threads)
antifrank Hmm, I wonder whether David Cameron will use words this morning like: “I lead my party, while he follows his”?
Cameron wouldn’t say that about Brown (as Blair said it about Major) because it’s not accurate. Brown neither leads nor follows his party; he merely gallumphs, sulks, and has tantrums: aimlessly, and without regard to what anybody thinks. He has no concept of following, let alone leading.
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I have noticed that a few people have written that Jim Devine is due to ask the first question at PMQs on Wenzday. I preume he will be “persuaded” not to, and in any case it’s very unlikely that he would have the intelligence to work out where to go and how to do it anyway.
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A random thought: if we had constituencies of equal electorate, and if the Western Isles were therefore absorbed completely in a Roos & Skye etc. constituency, it would probably still be a safe Lib Dem seat with a stronger Labour element. If it became known that the Western Isles bit were Lab/SNP marginal, with hardly any Lib Dem voters, then that would be no more than a minor curiosity rather than a vision of unfairness. I wonder if such anomalous curiosities exist already? What would the votes be like in Skye, if it were counted separately?
———————–
The Cooke model looks about right to me. I didn’t follow all the maths, but it seems to fit in with my common-sense down-to-earth expectation of a vote share of 39:31 resulting in a clear majority (or thereabouts). Uniform National Hippopotamus is a load of dingoes’ kidneys.
This Joanna Cash story smells rather funny.
I know people in politics have over-inflated egos, but surely the resignation can’t just be over something so petty as the Daily Mail article makes out?
So really nothing to do with her being preggers, just some girl on girl action?
I’ve done a screen-shot of the Twitter page, because I’ve got a sneaky feeling the “RIP Dinosaurs” may not stay on there for too long.
38/56
Here are the full results of the ‘Broken Britain’ poll:
http://extras.timesonline.co.uk/pdfs/tthbrokenbritain.pdf
60. That’s not, perhaps, the most fortunate turn of phrase.
I haven’t a clue why she’s stepped down, but quite a lot of Conservatives in winnable seats have done so, over the past four years. Perhaps being an MP just wasn’t that attractive a career prospect, for a successful barrister.
On topic, it demonstrates that, contrary to the title of one Conservative fringe meeting, “It’s (not) the Cities, Stupid.”
59 And she’s been the PPC for 3 yrs - who’d jack it in after all that effort this close to the GE?
I agree it does seem an OTT hissy fit reaction. She’s clearly no shrinking violet either so why she’d be that bothered/threatened by someone else seems peculiar too.
Scots university ‘crisis’ over 31 per cent application jump
Scottish universities are in a “crisis situation” after the recession prompted a record increase in the number of applications, ministers have been warned.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/universityeducation/7190708/Scots-university-crisis-over-31-per-cent-application-jump.html
So, lets see if I understand Ms. Cash. She’s resigned because Westminster North Conservatives are sexist and old-fashioned, but she got the seat in the first place because hubby and Dave went to Eton together. Modern Conservatism?
64 - I agree it does seem an OTT hissy fit reaction.
Based on no knowledge at all a conclusion is reached.
59 Why not? If she’s a successful barrister and with all the ‘Cameron babe’ coverage then she’s probably got an ego a mile wide. Having to deal another lady as Association Chief may not have left enough space for two alpha females in the same room.
Broken Britain?
- Today’s Populus poll reveals the depth of the electorate’s disillusionment. Their judgment should suggest priorities for the next government
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/leading_article/article7019841.ece
Strange to have a poll about ‘Broken Britain’ without mentioning assymetrical devolution, the West Lothian Question or the Barnett Formula. Or would Populus’s computers have exploded with the ferocity of the data inputs?
Thanks Tony!!
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1249382/Ali-Dizaei-GUILTY-perverting-course-justice.html
O/T, but this man really was a gangster in uniform.
She was selected on exactly the same day as Priti Patel in Witham, on November 20th 2006:
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/goldlist/2006/11/joanne_cash_sel.html
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/goldlist/2006/11/priti_patel_sel.html
Looks like a personal argument to me. Impact on Tory election prospects = 0
Morning all, another excellent article in this series on Marginals. All we need now is the AR Marginals poll to really get us excited (hopefully).
Meanwhile back in the real world January retail sales the worst in 50 years with a fall of 0.7% since January 2009. That is even after a big rise in food sales and in winter clothing etc. How soon before we sadly witness the next series of Woolworths, Adams etc go down?
72. Be interesting to see who goes for Westminster North though. Will local resident Jonathan Djanogly try to do a runner?
67. Rich from you, Tim.
Djanogly has already got one of the safest seats in the country in John Major’s old seat in Huntingdon, or am I missing something? Did he have a problem with expenses for example?
26. A rather cruel picture of ‘Octavius Black’ and the ‘Cameron Cutie’. It looks like Pickles isn’t too keen on the Etonian takeover of the Tory Party.
LOL - Maguire got himself in Hansard.. follow on from LibDEm on train story..
Kevin_Maguire
Better watch grammar and punctuation if Tweets might be read out in Parliament! http://bit.ly/cO1RNB
http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm/cmtoday/cmdebate/18.htm
77, there are, I think, 2 Old Etonians in the Shadow Cabinet. Cameron was elected. You’d have a more valid claim if you were speaking of the Scottish takeover of the Labour Party.
69 Stuart. If Labour do somehow manage to get re-elected then this country will have crossed the event horizon. We’d be on a one way trip to utter fuc*edupedness that 99% of those who plan to vote Labour cannot conceive. Sterling and everything else would plummet. This is what 5 more years of Brown entails.
But….If Dave gets in? It won’t be pretty - but it won’t be collapse either. If the public sector spending gets a hard enough time of it then our deficit and debt and credit rating and currency might not get too badly pressured. The productive sector must be protected at the expense of the consumptive sector. That way lies national recovery (but not for everyone - and that’s the politically hard bit). If he goes all wobbly then we’re back in meltdown mode.
Fingers crossed that Dave wins big and he has a pair.
76. Badly affected by expense scandal. Local Association planning to dump him if his vote goes down substantially (UKIP doing well in Cambs) with at least one former Tory member standing against him as an Independent. Well-known Agent resigned just a few days before a meeting to discuss his position last summer. Deeply troubled Association. So, might he just knock on the door? “David, you know I live in Westminster North…”
Mike,
Fascinating stuff over the last few days!
81 - John Major could come back as Huntingdon’s MP and win 48,000 votes again.
Troubled waters ahead for FM Dave:
Scotland and N Ireland could reject bill of right
- Proposals to change the Human Rights Act could become a ‘legal and political nightmare,’ experts have said
http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2010/feb/07/northern-ireland-bill-of-rights
‘Hating the human rights act – an English phenomenon’
- Westminster has no right to change the constitutional settlement in other parts of the UK, simply to appease human rights critics in England
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/henryporter/2010/feb/08/human-rights-act-devolution-constitution-labour-conservatives
Anyone who buys CCHQ’s sexist spin about a catfight in Westminster North should watch this space.
The behaviour of the association Agent, Jonathan Fraser-Howells, will come under intense scrutiny.
80. Patrick - “… If Labour do somehow manage to get re-elected then this country will have crossed the event horizon. We’d be on a one way trip to utter fuc*edupedness…”
Aha! Maybe THAT is why so many Scots say they are going to vote Labour: they want to f***-up Britain!
(There may actually be more truth in that jest than most Unionists would like to admit.)
58 John Loony, the Isle of Skye has always been a Liberal stronghold. It was its inclusion into Ross and Cromarty which made the former Tory seat unwinnable for the Tories after 1983.
On Joanne Cash, could it actually be nothing to do with her pregnancy at all? Isn’t she the daughter of Bill Cash and wasn’t she involved in his troughing expenses claim? Could it be that she shares many of her father’s rather extreme views and the office bearers of NK were starting to find them a bit unpaletable?
Not all constituency office bearers are dinosaurs and after all they are the people who do the hard work in elections, pounding streets with leaflets, addressing envelopes etc. Even the best candidate is fighting with one hand tied behind his/her back if the local association is not fully on board. For that reason better she goes.
84 - The human rights act isn’t popular at the moment, especially with it being invoked in order to give votes to prisoners, something which simply doesn’t chime with the values of many British people, including Labour supporters.
Back to thread: you could be describing Reading. Tory during 1980s. Labour in 1997. Now we have one Tory MP, and a hung council. Reading West will probably go blue at GE
81. there are some excellent local Tories too. A name for the future is Jonathan Grey a local councillor who has a national destiny IMHO.
The crucial parameters are if Djanogly’s vote drops below 45% on the day (and boundary changes are unfavourable in a national context) and the LD’s go above 30%, then he is toast. After all, he would have taken the safest Tory seat in the Country and converted it into a LD target!
ConHome Constituency pages can tell you a bit more if you are good at reading between lines.
Neil Kinnock tried this ‘ah, but we’re doing better in the marginals’ line when the momentum was moving away. Then Michael Howard’s team tried the same tack when he was losing the momentum.
The REAL story is not this ‘how much can the Conservatives get away with winning by’. It’s that Labour are closing the gap. The big Mo is with them.
The question Mike Smithson might want to start addressing is this one: what will it take for Labour to win an overall majority. Because THAT is the way this is now heading. Like it, or not.
87. No, she’s not Bill Cash’s daughter, and your comment could be libellous…
89 - shame Reading council is too lazy to count the votes on the night, while an enormously rural seat like Brecon & Radnor has decided it will be able to do so.
84 Stuart
we are all well used to the Scots having more rights than the rest of us, it’s why we can’t understand why you are always complaining.
73 The shop closures never stopped. In ‘prosperous’ December, Borders and lots of branches of Threshers fell by the wayside.
87 - Check your facts.
91 John
It will take Labour to remove Gordon Brown if you want to win, and you keep screwing that up.
The last three days’ articles have been more informative about the next election than the combined offerings of the national press this year. This is why I love this site.
88. Andy JS
It is not the popularity (in England) of FM Dave’s bill of rights proposal that is being questioned. It is its legality in the bits of the Yookay that are neither England nor Wales.
87. Well that covers the Cash family….who should we trash next?
Feeling slightly smug because I checked out whether she was Bill Cash’s daughter before posting a comment assuming she was and thereby avoiding making a fool of myself.
Obviously Joanne Cash’s verdict on yesterday’s events is summed up by the expression: “RIP Dinosaurs”, unless of course she’s a big fan of Jurassic Park:
http://twitter.com/Joanne_cash
‘reflecting’ is a LD carpetbagger. Once you know that all else becomes clear.
91 - Anyone who thinks Labour can get a majority is clueless and consequently the rest of their comments can be safely ignored.
99 - FM Dave? Are you morphing into a tedious McWage Slave?
100. The Goldsmith’s would be my fave….
98. antifrank - 98.The last three days’ articles have been more informative about the next election than the combined offerings of the national press this year.”
Agreed.
By the way, I think that Andy Cooke’s 5% is far too cautious. The anti-Tory tactical voting is not just going to unwind, but IMHO is going to start winding the other way! At least in central and southern England (where the election will be decided).
I’d say that a 2% Tory lead would deliver a Commons majority. Maybe even parity would do it (but only if “The Brown Epiphany” really kicks in in the final 4-week campaign).
86 Stuart. Maybe some nits do think that way - more fool them. Peeling away from a completely broken England would not make Scotland a happy place. You’d be fuc*ed too and permanently attached to a basket case.
The comments on Iran at the top of the thread got me thinking about ’satellite’ countries.
It’s not easy being in another country’s shadow - if your whole national identity is essentially a knock off of someone else’s. Look at the hideous contortions the Japanese and Koreans get into if you point out to them that their whole culture is basically a copy of China. ‘NO. NO. NO. We’re unique’ they’ll claim angrily. Horseshit. Just look at the architecture, clothes, cooking, Confucianism, music, etc, etc – it’s all from China originally, and the writing system too in Japan’s case. Yes they’ve now had a few centuries to morph it all into something that is distinct, but it’s not original. That hurts – and explains a fair bit of the discomfort Korea and Japan have with their larger and culturally dominant neighbour. Maybe the history of Japan in the 1930s and 1940s is just an expression of an inferiority complex gone astray.
Same for Belgium. It’s all either French or Dutch. Does Belgium have a truly distinct culture? I don’t think so. Poirot, Tintin, beer, mussels and chips is hardly up there with what France and the Netherlands have given the world is it?
Some countries have leading cultures and some are followers. It is the way of the world. Coming from a nation of imported culture or political and economic subservience and pretending that you are not is living a lie – and often one in human history that leads to punch-ups.
Perhaps we should invite the PB crowd to discuss this theme with respect to a certain porridge eating locale up north….
91 But, Neil Kinnock’s party did do better in the marginals, in 1992. As to your last sentence, I take it that you’ve overlooked last night’s poll.
WRT Joanne Cash, plainly, it’s an odd story, and I daresay more will emerge in the days ahead. As others have pointed out, she isn’t Bill Cash’s daughter.
WRT Jonathan Djanogly, it would be pretty odd for him to dump his current constituency, which he’ll hold even if there’s a big swing against him, in order to contest a marginal.
102. Reflecting is a LD Member. Does that somehow make my observations less interesting. Ask any Huntingdon Tory there opinion, or as I suggest, look at ConHome constituency pages for clues, or is that now being run by LD’s - the ultimate conspiracy theory?
Mark my words, there are constituencies across the East of England, where the expenses scandal and local Tories in the trough may not mean a single seat changing over at this election, but will create the marginals of the future. Add to this divided local associations and you have trouble ahead. Watch UKIP.
On thread, Con targets 50-60 are:
50. Ribble South
51. Dumfries and Galloway
52. Tamworth
53. Derbyshire South
54. Torbay
55. Cleethorpes
56. Harrow East
57. Swindon North
58. Sutton and Cheam
59. Worcester
60. Bradford West
So there is something in this. Looking further down the list you have Great Yarmouth (62), Brentford (64), Cheadle (65), Bedford (67), Stevenage (70), Halifax (72), etc.
106. Patrick
Err… are you really saying that Scotland’s “whole national identity is essentially a knock off of someone else’s”. Cos if you are, you are displaying a truly stunning degree of ignorance of Scottish culture and society.
It is statements like that from people who profess to support the Union that convinces me that the Union is on its death bed.
You might like to order this book for your summer reading by the way:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/How_the_Scots_Invented_the_Modern_World
http://www.amazon.com/How-Scots-Invented-Modern-World/dp/0609606352
Yes marginals are different. And journalists are stupid. Hilary Benn on Today rabitting on how AV was a fairer system and Humphreys made no attempt to stop him lying. Aaargh
111 Same on R5 - and Huhne was repelling as ever. Still it looks desperate stuff by Labour. The hypocrisy of offering a referendum on it blew my irony meter.
106 Patrick
the bit I never get about the Nats of any hew is why they want to be so monocultured. In the UK you can have two cultural pools to draw on ( indeed cherry-pick ); both highly recognised and respected by people the world over and yet you want to restrict it to one.
As well as Burns you can have Shakespeare, Newton with Adam Smith etc. yet you want to base your life on a fantasy found on shortbread tins.
Restrictive to say the least.
110 NO - I’m saying Japan’s is (or was).
Alot of Scottish culture is shared culture with the rest of the UK and that shared culture is predominantly English in origin.
Scotland is, however, a lot more dependent on England than it likes to pretend. Imagine you do go your own way. Could Scotland be successful if England wasn’t? No.
Many nits dream of breaking away to some sort of sunny uplands. The reality might be breakiung away to some sort of dingy, socialist backwardness with a chip on the shoulder the size of Arthur’s Seat. Be careful what you wish for - you might get it.
This legality issue seems odd to me. Westminster supercedes the regional political bodies. Isn’t that the end of the story?
It does seem like Labour, being cnts, have, as well as needlessly going down a devolutionary route, tried to embed the new institutions with its own political ideas.
94. alanbrooke - “… we are all well used to the Scots having more rights than the rest of us, it’s why we can’t understand why you are always complaining.”
Au contraire. Most of the “complaining” here at PB is done by the anti-Scots brigade. Eg. you.
If you are so hard done by, then may I suggest that you consider casting your vote for this lot:
http://www.englishdemocrats.org.uk/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=317:english-identity&catid=26:key-issues&Itemid=32
Getting rid of Ian Blair was the single best thing Boris has done. Here is his latest claptrap
http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2010/feb/09/ian-blair-criticises-conservative-policing
Whatever small point he might have about police numbers is subsumed in his hatred (shared by the rest of his ACPO cronies) for accountability.
well she’s tweeting again
Joanne_Cash
Lots of rumours flying around distracting from business of electing a new govt! Go go go people!! We have work to do.
O/T. Considering the cities have been moving Labour, and the Counties Tory for 70 years, what’s left? Oh yes, the TOWNS…
The “towns” are usually in fact a bit of both, with an urban core and a rural periphery. No surprise then that they are marginal…
We’ve had voter fraud in Reading council elections in the recent past. You would think they would have learned from that.
114 And FWIW I think it is strategically enormously in the SNP’s interest for Dave to win big in May.
1. Tories in Westminster will always play to the Scots nationalist heartstrings
2. You need someone to repair your share of the damage
3. You will need a healthy England as foreign relationship number 1 from the get go
4. Both would like to kill Labour forever
Scotland and England will prosper together or sink together - whether or not they remain in union. The prosper option depends now on Dave getting in.
115. Morris Dancer - “Westminster supercedes the regional political bodies.”
Theoretically: Yes.
In practice: No.
If you disbelieve me, then my suggestion is (in Wendy’s infamous words): BRING IT ON!
Seriously, I’d just love it if Dave, as England’s First Minister, tries to impose his Bill on Scotland and Ulster. The consequences of such arrogance just do not bear thinking about. For Unionists.
117, as unsurprising as can be. I heard with incredulity and some outrage the cretin spokesman of the Black Police Association (or whatever it’s called) claiming it was a racist witch-hunt against the criminal in uniform. The ITV news reported a string of allegations against Dizaei Rascal back in 2003 which were dropped, perhaps because the top officers thought it would make them look racist. I wouldn’t be surprised if Ian Blair had been commissioner then. He needs a good slap, silly bugger that he is.
116 Stuart
minor correction ” anti Scots Nat Brigade ” please.
Since I have yet to hear what the definition of a Scot is, I am not critical of Scotland’s people (since I might find I’m one myself ).
O/T All the nits truely believe that Brigadoon is real and that’s what they want for the whole shire.
122, you mean we’d have to offload the Scottish banking debt onto you? How would we cope without the hundreds of billions of debt? Or the incessant whinging from the SNP?
Impose? You mean, the British Government acting for Britain across all the country?
As for NI, that’s a special case.
To return to Andy Cooke’s outstanding article, its one weakness (and this is a necessary consequence of its statistical approach that made it so good) is that it is backward-looking. It looks at the past behaviour of voters and constituents and imagines them in some way reverting to previous behaviour. This is not a stupid approach - how many ex-alcoholics pick up the bottle again after a while? - but it impliedly rules out the possibility of different patterns emerging. Of course, in politics different patterns are emerging all the time.
Uniform national swing assumes that everyone will fall prey to the Tory wiles on an evenly spread basis, an assumption that is equally dangerous.
Can we improve on these statistical approaches? I think we can, but it needs to do something that most of us are surprisingly chary of, which is to identify and extrapolate detailed political trends.
In 1997, Tony Blair was swept to power as the Thatcherite Tory coalition crumbled. In 2010, the New Labour coalition appears to be crumbling. To work out what this means for seats, we need to look at which bits of the coalition remain, which bits might fall away and which bits might yet return (or even be added to by new recruits), consider how the non-Labour voters may or may not vote tactically and then look at what this means on a demographic analysis of each constituency.
Easy to say, harder to do.
In 1997, Labour was elected on a diverse coalition of traditional working class Labour voters, left-wing intelligentsia, identity politics voters, middle English voters (Worcester woman and Mondeo man) and general bien pensant opinion (Bridget Jones and her male equivalents). This coalition held in 2001, but began to fray in 2005.
The voters that Labour lost in 2005 came from three categories: the left-wing intelligentsia, disaffected Muslim voters (reducing the identity politics vote) and general bien pensant opinion. Middle English voters held surprisingly steady - see, for example, Nick Palmer’s reasonably comfortable win in Broxstowe.
In 2010, Labour is losing different voters. Middle England is resolutely turning its back on Labour. Many traditional Labour working class voters are sitting on their hands or looking for alternatives. Set against that, Labour is probably making fresh inroads into the left-wing intelligentsia, though not back to 1997 and 2001 levels. I am not clued-up enough on the views of disaffected Muslim voters, and Labour’s progress with these voters may well depend on whether their opponents are Lib Dems or Respect. Bien pensant voters really don’t know who to vote for this time round. They will probably divide between all parties in fairly standard ratios.
Labour have held surprisingly well onto their support in voters who are aged 30 to 45, whose memories of the Tories in the early 90s are good and who do not have clear memories of the 1970s. Older and younger voters are less forgiving. Scottish voters seem to like having a clearly Scottish Prime Minister and northern English voters seem less enthused by the Tory alternative than their southern counterparts. Welsh voters, on the other hand, seem to have a particular dislike for the present Labour government. Voters in the West Midlands are getting close to launching a lynch mob against the Labour party.
Now, I have not yet had time to put numbers to all of this, which is going to take quite some time. But I shall attempt to do so. In the meantime, other demographic trends to consider would be greatly appreciated.
123 Andy Hayman who was in charge of at least one of the investigations against Ali D has just said on R5 that Blunkett told them to back off because of the race card issue.
I know how frustrated many officers were over him getting away with virtually anything. Top cops and politicos were frightened of the shitstorm he’d generate whenever challenged. It’s great news that he’s finally gone down.
Guido Fawkes tweets that the Labour expenses troughers are STILL taking the Labour whip.
Surely this can’t be true?
109 / 119:
Absolutely right. Two of the seats mentioned there are just down the road from me, Tamworth and Derbyshire South. Both of them are utterly divided between town and country areas. Tamworth includes some villages such as Little Aston which is the richest place in the whole Midlands; not many Labour votes there. And the main town in Derbyshire South is Swadlincote which is pretty strong for Labour. The rural area includes places like Repton and Melbourne where they weigh the Tory vote.
129, does he use that form of words? Could just mean non-accused MPs. Otherwise, it’s weird and incompetent.
131 Morris Dancer
Here is his tweet
http://twitter.com/guidofawkes/status/8847409414
Plato- quite right. Dizaei’s downfall is a nice precursor to the downfall of the corrupt new labour regime which nurtured him
115. Morris Dancer - … needlessly going down a devolutionary route…
Needlessly?
Needlessly?
Needlessly?
Crikey.
Do you really, really think that John Smith, Donald Dewar, Gordon Brown, Robin Cook, David Steel, Menzies Campbell, Charlie Kennedy et al “needlessly” spent decades working towards the Scotland Act? Do you really think that they did all that work without a very good reason?
Here, by the way, is the reason:
http://www.snp.org/
OT update on Hoon deselection attempt
http://www.thisisnottingham.co.uk/news/motions-tabled-oust-Hoon/article-1815250-detail/article.html
British Retail Consortium: worst January sales since records began in 1995. 0.7% drop as against expected 0.5% rise.
http://tinyurl.com/ygmvpvr
Antifrank. A very good piece. I’d suggest you also think about the people who haven’t voted since 1992. History suggests these would be somewhat Tory inclined and not really moved by Labour one way or the other. Are they angry or scared or otherwise motivated now?
I do think an asymmetrical return of the DNV crowd during the ZNL years will be a significant impactor on the result – and that pollsters are not adequately modelling turnout or the allocation of where an increase in total votes will fall.
121. Patrick - “… I think it is strategically enormously in the SNP’s interest for Dave to win big in May.”
Yes and no.
A big Tory Maj is great for the dissolution of the Union.
A Hung Parliament is great for the dissolution of the Union.
Heck, even the profoundly unlikely Lab Maj is great for the dissolution of the Union.
The SNP are now in a Win-Win-Win situation.
Adios Yookania.
132, ……
134, surprised how irked you are.
*insert stereotypical joke about chippy Scotsmen here*
More seriously, devolution is and was unnecessary and was a mistake. Unsurprising, given how Labour have fcked over every major issue it’s handled regarding the constitution, voting, foreign policy, the economy, defence etc etc etc.
I think they worked towards it because they were either nationalists, or because they thought it would be popular, or because they thought it right but were naive about the effect it would have on the union, particularly the rise of English nationalism and the two tier system we seem to operate now, with second class English MPs.
136, you must be mistaken. There has been no boom and will be no bust.
126 Morris Dancer
NI is a special case.
Not really it’s just a big play on liberal English guilt ( like the EU is on German war guilt.
At heart Calvinist Scots and Catholic Irish can’t get their way but agree it’s all the English fault and they should pay more money.
Think of it more like Rangers v Celtic but with AK47s.
139 Labour thought they’d be popular and retain control ie London Mayor/Scottish Exec.
I think they were suffering from an acute hubris attack - they simply didn’t think it would do them any harm and they’d look good.
And look where it took them…
I feel sorry for the Lawrence family that they relied on a police force to find their son’s killer which was utterly obsessed with appeasing the likes of Dizaei.
127 Agree. As far as the Labour coalition votes goes i think it will be:
–Guardianista = strongly up
–Ethnic = strongly up (Iraq + Obama + Imported voters)
–Tony’s Tories = strongly down (weighted to switching)
–WWC = strongly down (weighted to stay at home)
138 - so you think you’d win a referendum now ? I don’t.
139. Morris Dancer - “More seriously, devolution is and was unnecessary and was a mistake.”
Very pleased to see you agreeing with Deeside’s very own Christina D.
More of the same please! Much more!!
139 - Just 11 years of moderate growth … followed by a relatively short period of moderate recession.
145 Stuart
I have been through the SNP site and aside from the fact that Eck looks fatter than the last time I visited I cannot find the answer to my question at 124
WHO IS A SCOT ?
Teacher training places cut by 40 per cent
SNP ministers have been accused of “cutting off the pipeline” of new teachers after it emerged the number of training places will plummet by more than 1,500 this year.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/scotland/7190627/Teacher-training-places-cut-by-40-per-cent.html
145, from a unionist perspective, don’t you agree?
I’m also slightly bemused by your strange idea that everything, ever is good news for the SNP. What if the Tories win and do a decent job? Or, what if the SNP retain their role in the Scots’ Executive and cock it up badly?
Besides, even if the Tories cock up or are unpopular in Scotland, Labour would probably be the chief beneficiaries.
*sighs* Jerez test starts tomorrow. Be nice when I’m the one posting slightly repetitive comments 95% of pb.com’s readership doesn’t care about
This analysis is insightful and timely - it highlights how bankrupt the FPTP system is. What we’re learning is that the government is going to be decided by a minority of voters in a minority of seats.
For a back of an enevelope calculation let’s say that there are 100 key marginals and within those marginals there are 3,000 swing voters. The profile of the key constituencies means that a relatively homogenous group of 300,000 people are going to decide the next government - let’s call them the KMM. Is it little wonder the parties are scrapping over, what’s termed, the centre ground? All of them know who they need to appeal to so we get message after message tailored to this KMM. Real innovation and fresh ideas, if they don’t appeal to the KMM, won’t get a look in.
The “safe seat” is one of the greatest travesties in our democracy. How disappointing.
143 Not sure that the guardianista Labour support will rise so strongly. Note the bitter comments on the Guardian CIF website about the loss of civil liberties under Labour.
A bit thin on the headline but a couple of interesting snippets
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/lawandorder/7194677/Ali-Dizaei-dyed-hair-to-cultivate-image-in-court.html
Here is FM Dave’s finest hour:
http://www.conservatives.com/News/Speeches/2009/05/David_Cameron_Speech_to_Scottish_Party_Conference.aspx
And yes, before you ask, I will be re-posting this Dave statement ad nauseum in the years to come.
150 Good point - that’s a real bug bear for them. Most wouldn’t vote Tory instead so I’d expect them to go Greenies or stay at home unless they’re pretty committed to Labour.
Socially cohesive ! So these would be the kind of places that have most to fear from increased immigration.
70
‘O/T, but this man really was a gangster in uniform.’
Apparently there had been several previous accusations against him,but each time he just played the race card and everyone backed off.
Hat tip to the met officers concerned for having the balls not to be intimidated by this crap.
Frightening given his past history the he kept on getting promoted,clearly two sets of rules in our multicultural wonderland.
150 - and Chilcot.
142. The baleful influence of the two Blairs on the police cannot be underestimated. But with yesterday’s developments, a shaft of light has penetrated the gloom.
152 Stuart
Are the inhabitants of Tirana Scots ? I ask because it struck me that they may be Scots.
Albania = Alba ( Scotland ) nia ( corruption of gaelic “nua” meaning new )
Albania = Nova Scotia or New Scotland,
they all get passports and can they vote ?
Hmmm so Beauty and the Beast clashed did they, hmmm makes you wonder why.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1249542/Joanne-Cash-Mystery-Cameron-cutie-Tory-candidate-quits-months-election.html
A chance for Iain Dale surely.
149
It is more likely that a pattern will develop of differential performance between regional and national politics. See for example, Quebec, Catalonia, Lombardy. Such a pattern is even discernable in places without a separatist movement, such as the US States and the German Lander.
147
The SNP are very careful to avoid the blood bit of blood and soil nationalism. Hence they overcompensate with symbols. This is also a pattern in the west and probably has something to do with those mid-20th century German fellas.
It’s a bit easier in a place like Quebec, where they can use language as an inoffensive proxy.
143. MrJones - Tony’s Tories = strongly down (weighted to switching)
And therein lies the great tragedy of Labour appointing Brown to the leadership unchallenged.
He bullied them into throwing away the Centre, which Kinnock, Smith and Blair had spent so long convincing.
And Brown threw it away in 2 short years. For what?
150 Yeah i thought a lot of it might go LD but it doesn’t seem to be happening in my neck of the woods at least. I’m expecting LDs to do better than expected in the wuffer areas but that’s ultra anecdotal.
158. Alanbrooke
Please re-read your own post there at 158. And then ask yourself this: “am I being anti-SNP in that post; or am I being anti-Scottish?”
Food for thought there Alanbrooke. Food for thought.
161 Indeed - Brown has managed to flush their efforts down the bog of oblivion.
I really can’t see Labour ever recovering after this one. Ten years is surely a bare minimum for them to be down and out.
161 Stuart
I am extremely disappointed. You complain when bloggers South of the Border don’t want to discuss Scottish issues. When I ask the most basic one ” who is a Scot” you refuse to answer.
161 Yes but it was always fake - had to break down eventually.
‘Gordon Brown faces backbench rebellion over vote reform’
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/8505255.stm
Lol Sky did a piece on AV, explaining how it would work but also using the 2005 GE as an example saying it would have given Labour a bigger majority. I wonder how that plays with people fed up them on the doorstep. I also think mentioning the word referendum might backfire after Lisbon, especially if it turns out we have to cough up to bail out Greece.
Is it just me or has Gordon’s big NHS speech from yesterday got bugger all coverage? I’d completely forgotten about it.
Andy Sparrow has low expections of Burnham’s press conference - starts at 10.
164
I remember people saying that Labour was finished back in ‘92 five years later elected with 170 majority.
Both the Labour party and the Libdems can rest assured, what ever happens in 3/4 months time, memories will be short, as Cameron’s Conservatives lurch from disaster to disaster.
So much to look forward too.
With regards to Jo Cash CCHQ talk a good game but dont follow it through.
Some of the agents put in place frankly arent up to the job and that means some associations are able to act in the “old way”.
167, to lose the vote he’d either need a huuuge rebellion, or a moderate one with the Lib Dems against.
Unconfirmed rumours reach me that the Lib Dems are going to call for a referendum on only allowing men with beards and sandals to vote, and abstaining if they don’t get their way.
145.At it again Stuart? Grow up and keep me out of your childish petty spats on here!
165. Alanbrooke
Clearly you need to brush up on your Googling skills.
From our 2005 Manifesto:
http://www.snp.org/system/files/SNP_manifesto_2005.pdf
169
Killed by the question: “where’s the money?”
175 That observation applies the whole of the last 13 years.
Labour’s problem is that the Tories are winning the alliteration war. After ‘Tory Toffs’ bizarrely lost to ‘Broken Britain’ the Tories haven’t looked back. ‘CamsCam’ was this morning followed by ‘Cameron’s Cuties’ with Labour’s sad answer ‘Brown’s Bunker’
But rejoice! Labour’s big hitter Ali-’Blair’s Babes’ and ‘People’s Princess’-Campbell is back!
The Future’s Bright. The Furures Brown!
173. Morning Chris!
Glad to see that you got out of bed on the “right” side today. We don’t like to see grumpy wumpys here at PB. We are just one big happy family.
Do you support Scottish devolution “heart and soul” today Chris? Like your hero Dave. Or do you oppose Scottish devolution, as you explicitly did on a recent PB thread (I can fetch the link if you like).
I think that we have the right to know. A great deal hangs on your reply.
We wait with baited breath.
Ugly ugly business in Westminster. This, and what happened in SW Norfolk, are all too telling reminders of the uglier side of the party I support. Turnips indeed.
161
There will be a strong stay-at-home tendency but Labour’s policies have tended to alienate the WWC and I will be surprised if the votes for English Democrats or BNP don’t increase
Stuart Dickson, I realise you couldn’t care less what I think but here goes anyway.
When you start posts with FM Dave, I really appreciate it. It means that I can use it as a filter in the same way as Wage Slaves weird spellings of Cameron. It allows me to scroll past as reliably as if the posters name appeared at the top of the item.
So please could you start every post with it? Thanks.
174 - a right doesn’t imply compulsion so that’s OK I can opt out. Do all these citizen’s get a vote or only those resident?
170. Nostradamus lives !
“which they believe would benefit the least unpopular, rather than the most popular, candidates…”
No it wouldn’t. That would imply the LibDems would win every seat under AV, which is clearly nonsense.
AV simply prevents the election of the most unpopular candidates, (Condorcet Losers) even if they happen to have the largest number of first preferences (a situation which may arise purely because their opposition is split between several candidates)
174 Stuart
At last a definition ! So now I can go off and see what this means in practical terms.
As a comment it may be better for the SNP to answer this most basic of questions upfront on their site than tuck it away in a 5 year old manifesto.
Labour’s core vote was the Working Class. The problem is that the trends are for the number of people in this category to shrink.
1. The growth in the under class subsisting on benefits that do not work and have a smaller propensity to vote.
2. Importation of 2m immigrants to do this work who have no vote at a GE.
3. The loss of another 1m manufacturing jobs since 97.
4. The longer term trend of a rise in prosperity = more middle class and fewer Working Class.
5. The changing age of the population leading to more senior citizens and fewer 18 - 30 yr olds. Senior Citizens are more Conservative and a higher % vote than 18- 30 yr olds.
The trends are against Labour. They then proceeded to c*** on the shrinking WWC through massive immigration and at this GE face the double whammy of upset core voters and the longer term trends of a shrinking core vote.
Except in Scotland. Maybe less immigration, a greater % rely on Govt jobs or benefits. Also (cheekily) in places like Glasgow the life span is barely 65 so they do not live long enough to become Conservative?
from Waugh…
“Former LibDem mayoral candidate and copper Brian Paddick says Ali Dizaei was a “loveable rogue”
186. Classic. What a plank Paddick is - another dreadful creation of the Blair years.
I see Stuart has gone on the SNP bandwaggon again. Stuart and I may be PB friends but the majority of Scots do not support independence and most think Holyrood with a bit of fiscal responsibility is all that is required.
The SNP agenda is Tory majority government = Scotland wants independence.
They should remember that in 1974 they had 11 MPs. In 1979 they had 2 and even today while they may run Holyrood with Tory support they still only have 6 Westminster seats plus Glasgow East, which I hope John Mason holds because Margaret Curran is so ghastly.
There is absolutely no evidence that a Cameron government would fail to learn from the mistakes of Margaret Thatcher regarding Scotland.
After all Alex Salmond wouldn’t have lasted 6 months as First Minister without the Scottish Tory group at Holyrood pushing through his first budget let alone ensuring all 3 budgets have passed.
As I keep reminding you all , in 2005 when the Scottish Tories even on a mere 15.6% managed to be second in a quarter of Scotland’s seats. Those are the constituencies where the Scottish Tories will gain votes and the other parties dismiss the Tories at their peril.
186 Brian Paddick seems to be in a very small minority with that one. Then again, he does seem to be a bit of an attention seeker - I still can’t believe he was on reality TV!
174 As I have said before, on that definition David Cameron is Scottish
JohnF are you really surprised. The Met did after all promote such bungling incompetents like Cressia Dick. At least no-one died as a result of DizAei’s efforts. TheMet is unfit for purpose.
188 Maybe Dave should just hold a Scottish independence referendum right away. The SNP would certainly lose it and we could all just STFU about the whole thing for another generation.
180. Does “FM” stand for “Fab Man” ? I can only suspect so in Stuarts case. I think it now means that its HAC Salmond from here on in.
190. But of course in Nat-world he isn’t a ‘proper Scot’.
191. ChrisA - it’s hard to disagree with that judgement.
166. MrJones - “Yes but it was always fake - had to break down eventually.”
Indeed.
But it happened on Gordon’s “watch”.
There are lucky Prime Ministers (eg. Maggie struck gold with General Leopoldo Galtieri).
And then there are unlucky Prime Ministers (eg. Gordon struck a rich vein of turd with… well, the list is really so long, where does one begin?)
And then there are First Ministers. Come on down FM Dave! Your (ahem) “finest” hour awaits you.
195 “Gordon struck a rich vein of turd with… well, the list is really so long, where does one begin?”
188 Easterross
actually I can see the situation where the SNP are caught in the same position as the DUP were last week ; afraid to have elections called at short term because they would get massacred for the local assembly and needing to co-operate with the enemy to stay in power until the polls improve.
Would wee Eck really want to lose his many salaries by provoking the local Tories to the point where they stop voting through his budgets and let Labour back into Holyrood ?
108: If we ever get AV one thing for certain is that it will mean UKIP have even less chance of getting Westminster seats than currently .
Allegedly forcing out one of your brightest candidates for being pregnant is an absolutely toxic decision as far as the Tories’ new modern image is concerned.
Nothing about this in the Daily Mail report?
There again we have the Mail bigging up a anti Tory story.
190
Just like Rod Stewart!
Roderick David “Rod” Stewart, CBE (born 10 January 1945[1]) is a British singer-songwriter born and raised in London, England and currently residing in Epping.
Andrew Neil thinks Ashcroft is a non-dom
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/dailypolitics/andrewneil/2010/02/much_ado_about_nothing.html
I see that Lord Mandelson needs to lock up those retailers for posting unpatriotic trading figures.
It would be nice to be able to come to a thread and not have to scroll through post after tedious post about the Scottish parish council regardless of the topic at hand. I can understand threads wandering after a few hundred posts, but everyday it’s there in the first 20 or so.
‘Opposition labours to undermine SNP’
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/scotland/article7017766.ece
Who will save us from this thread
202 Careful David. I got told off for mentioning that a few months ago
204 Plato,
Gene McKelly as he takes tham all back into the mists of Brigadoon
174. Stuart. That’s brilliant. Can we assume then that if Wee Eck get’s his referendum, it “will be open to all those living in Scotland, all those born in Scotland and all those with a parent born in Scotland.”
If not, why not?
Feart?
201: What a shocker….
As said, if Ashcroft had dodgy/illegal tax-dealings and contributions then Cameron and Co would be monumentally stupid. I don’t think they are, so it’s (at least in my view) 99% certain to be the case.
202. “It would be nice to be able to come to a thread and not have to scroll through post after tedious post about the Scottish parish council regardless of the topic at hand.”
Sorry, you have logged on to ParochialBetting by mistake…
204. Plato
I’d be delighted to read a cogent discussion about Medium English Towns and Their Hinterlands (METTHs). Why don’t you kick off the debate? After all, did you not say that you came from a METTH?
Post 87, in addition to being potentially libellous if Ms Cash wanted to bother, is an example of the danger of rushing to support one’s party without knowing the facts. Easterross should see Sean Fear’s post at 107 for a sensible Tory response.
On topic, a complication is that there really aren’t many towns in England that are completely disjoint from city influence, if only as being where many residents go to work. I ageee with the theme that the mood is rather different - around a third of my constituency is effectively part of Greater Nottingham, and it’s much more politicised than the rest (which can be good or bad). I recently asked my email list for non-party volunteer helpers in the GE: of the 95 offers so far, two thirds are from the conurbation.
Like the other ways of generalising about marginals, iincluding UNS, it needs to be taken with caution. We could do with a chart of marginals showing a few demographic indicators that we think are key. I’d suggest the ABC1 vs C2DE division, the ethnic balance and the size of the third party last time.
Looking at the map at the top of this thread, I find it a bit confusing, but there seem to be more marginals in the large roughly circular area in the bottom right than there are in the irregularly shaped area at the very top (more voters as well I think) yet the irregularly shaped area gets about twenty times as much comment here than the large roughly circular area.
I wonder why?
208 If it’s the case, why he didn’t just say so is a mystery to me?
210 (cont.) Plato
Andy JS at 7 and antifrank at 127 made a valiant effort to stay on topic.
The irrepressible Mr E voices my own feelings
I’ll say one thing for this mob, though; they know how to say “f*ck you” to the electorate better than just about any government in living memory. Say what you like about Churchill, but even he didn’t have the balls to install “Bomber” Harris as governor of occupied Hamburg.
when I read this
Lobbydog
LD hears Margaret Beckett will be elected chair of new Committee on National Security tonight.
http://mreugenides.blogspot.com/2010/02/last-orders-for-labour.html
Update from Andy Sparrow
10.07am: They’ve just handed out a news release. Burnham is launching a voteNHS.com website to support a key element of Labour’s health manifesto. The release says:
The “target cancer” campaign aims to save up to 10,000 lives by backing a pledge to create a new NHS guarantee of cancer diagnosis within one week of GP referral, allowing patients to be tested and told their results in just seven days.”
ERM - reannouncement again
138 the missing Tory voters since 1992.
That is 18 years ago.
Assuming an average electoral life of 60 years, that would mean that roughly a quarter of these would no longer be with us. Probably more likely to be a third, given the higher propensity of the elderly to vote.
I haven’t got the figures to hand, but I think that must be 1 to 2 million Tory voters who went AWOL and won’t ever return.
BTW, tim got a warning from OGH the other day asking him not to go off topic more than twice a day. Does the same apply to Stuart Dickson, Patrick and others? Wouldn’t the policy be best applied to say the first 100 posts of a thread? After that, incoming news if nothing else tends to grab the attention, and it’s one of pb.com’s strengths that it’s the place to pick up generally objective new developments.
216 Hmm - does this look like breakthrough breast cancer to you as well?
The Labour bit is lost right down at the bottom
http://www.votenhs.com/
196. Plato
Glad you liked my “turd mining” metaphor.
I was rather pleased with it myself. It is just SO “Gordon”.
It has been bubbling up for a long time and now it is here. The professional humanisation of Gordon Brown is in progress, in time for the election. He is being Hello!-ified. It began last year at Labour party conference when Sarah Brown took to the stage to talk of her love for her husband. “He’s messy,” she said, as if it were in any way relevant. “He’s noisy,” she continued, as my admiration for the Browns shrivelled a little.
And now, in an interview with his friend Piers Morgan, recorded last weekend and due for broadcast next weekend, the prime minister has spoken of the death of his 10-day-old baby daughter Jennifer in 2002. His grief was assembled, flat-packed and shipped for our information, as he sat there, morose and covered in wires. He cried, apparently, and the media duly reported that he cried.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/feb/09/gordon-brown-daughter-death
lucymanning
Andy burnham launching cancer pledge at press conf. Tories outside handing out flyers on ‘death tax’ for social care
Looks like Labour are going to fight the Tories on the NHS by creating loads of ‘guarantees’ that they can claim the Tories would scrap ‘on day one’.
Talk about strawmen electioneering. Pathetic.
On those trade figures..
The UK’s seasonally adjusted deficit on trade in goods and services was £3.3 billion in December, compared with the deficit of £2.9 billion in November.
In the fourth quarter of 2009, the deficit was £9.5 billion, compared with a deficit of £8.1 billion in the third quarter of 2009.
Notice the increase in deficit in both December and Q4, what chance that 0.1% rise in GDP will be modified downwards?
Like I’ve said before, lots of traps still to come for Gordon.
218. NPMP - “Wouldn’t the policy be best applied to say the first 100 posts of a thread?”
Would this policy apply to everybody, or just a select few posters? With certain topics (eg. Double Carpet posts) we’d never, ever get to the 100 post threshold, as virtually no-one is on-topic.
Please note that my first post this morning was No. 67. Up until that point only ONE POSTER (Andy at 7) had referred to METTHs.
216. BBCLauraK
Andy Burnham’s promise that cancer patients will get test results in a week was announced by Gordon Brown in September
211 - Ironically.
I am saddened to hear the overnight news that Joanne Cash has resigned as Conservative candidate for Westminster North.
She “gets” libel reform in a way shared by no other Tory politician.
This is not least because of her day job as a highly effective media law barrister, frequently (and successfully) resisting attempts to use injunctions to restrict public debate.
She is one of the few genuinely progressive liberals and civil libertarians left in the Conservative Party: for example, see the Guardian piece here .
Libel reform under an incoming Conservative government was always more likely if Joanne Cash became an MP.
Whatever the reason for her resignation, I do hope she remains heavily involved in Conservative policy-making on libel reform and free speech issues generally.
http://jackofkent.blogspot.com/2010/02/resignation-of-joanne-cash.html
More Labour campaigning
“Labour is also launching a CameraON/CameraOFF campaign to highlight the difference between Tory rhetoric and Tory reality”
Have they been consulting with wage slave?
26. When can we expect the final figures?
Anyone know?
lucymanning
Andy burnham admits prime minister has announced this cancer pledge before
180. don(the other one)
Message recieved Don!!
I get it. You don’t like FM Dave references. That is valuable information. Thank you.
I just love it when you get evidence that you have hit the raw nerve. Coldstone is the master of the Tory Raw Nerve Strategy.
369 jobs to go at GM Vauxhall Luton.
NPMP
Yes, one of the developing demographic trends is the suburbanisation of the smaller towns surrounding the larger city. This is well known around London, but something similar is occuring around all the cities.
I would guess such towns have similar % of commuters, car drivers, owner occupiers, middle aged, households with children, people moving in and out and the like.
In other words, around all of the cities are springing up places like Sevenoaks, Guildford, Reading and Stevenage.
So,the party of the middle classes will not onlyclobber you will 40% tax when you die, but, just for good measure, take another £20,000. Its time to start asking yourself, can I even afford to die??
224 - Stuart, what was my post at # 4 about then ?
Surely the Ashcroft story is that when Hague made him a Lord as part of the deal he agreed to become a UK taxpayer. It’s therefore legitimate for Marr to ask Hague if this has happened. It was unedifying to watch Hague squirm.
This could still be Cameron’s achilles heel. Labour just haven’t worked out how to get maximum mileage out of it yet.
235, worry not, they’re just birth pangs of the New World Order.
238 - was meant for 228
238. Perhaps we should have a Cost of Dying index, like we have a Cost of Living index.
Stuart, no you miss the point entirely. I LIKE it when you do it, it saves me time. I would never have read this post for example if you had done so.
My current filtering works like this
FM Dave, scroll by
Khameerioooneenenenmme, scroll by
In the search tool on firefox enter “by tim “, highlight all (that one is a bit of a pain because I have to remember to do it after every refresh and sometimes forget, but I find it is well worth the effort)
good morning nnnnn voters for nnnn, scroll by
So please, please, please, put it as the first item in all your posts.
Thanks in advance.
218 NPMP, first, a complimemt.
I do think Nick did very well last time to limit the swing against him! Broxtowe contains a lot of Nottingham University voters — and many University seats swung heavily against Labour in 2005 (cf Durham, Oxford, Cambridge, Cardiff C). Nick did very well, and I therefore suspect his famous canvassing reports contain some truth — there are elements of the constituency that have considerable affection for him.
FWIW, I think he will lose Broxtowe in 2010, but not massively, which will be a good result in the circs.
I also agree with Nick that there are some persistent offenders regarding off-topic posting. It is not fiat to single out tim alone. I don’t like off-topic posting at the beginning because it is rude to the writer of the lead article. Perhaps, repeatedly off-topic posters should be asked by OGH to provide lead articles?
For example, Stuart is repeatedly off-topic — his argument is that there never are (or only occasionally are) threads on Scotland. Well, perhaps Stuart should provide the lead articles !
191. Easterross - “I see Stuart has gone on the SNP bandwaggon again.”
Err… when did I get off the bandwagon Mark?
- “Stuart and I may be PB friends but the majority of Scots do not support independence… “
Evidence for that Mark?
If the Unionists are so certain of that statement, then why are they running scared of the referendum? Surely not because they have a scintilla of doubt? Sacre bleu!
243 don (the other one)
Don’t worry after their day in the sunshine the nits will retreat back into the mists for 99 years.
Who on Earth in the Bunker thought a £20k death tax to pay for healthcare was a *good* idea? Burnham says it’s ‘not his preferred option’ WTF? It should never have got as far as the keyboard…
235 Kristin
IMO the factory at Luton will close in 2 years. The replacement model looks set to be produced in Romania. If the factory was going to keep going it needs to be changing over its production lines in the next 18 months and would be planning to do so.
This means that the UK has gone from having 3 van factories LDV ( Birmingham ), GM\Renault ( Luton ) and Ford ( Southampton ) to none as Ford are likely to transfer production of the Transit to Turkey ( a large part of the volume has already gone ).
Now we will have a structural trade deficit in vans. Sort of indicates why we need some sort of industrial policy.
244. Gwynfa - “Well, perhaps Stuart should provide the lead articles !”
A STERLING SUGGESTION!
Now, where should I start?
The Lib Dem collapse in Inverclyde?
The Lib Dem collapse in Dunfermline?
The Lib Dem collapse in East Dunbartonshire?
The Lib Dem collapse in Aberdeen?
The Lib Dem collapse in Edinburgh?
The life and times of Tavish Scott and Nicol Stephen?
Mike Smithson is on tenterhooks as he awaits my first draft.
How come there’s no mention of trade deficit on BBC, only January sales figures?
Anyone interested they were released today here..
http://www.statistics.gov.uk/pdfdir/trd0210.pdf
249 - Stuart Dickson, I would be most interested in seeing you work up a piece on your expectations (as opposed to your chain-yanking) for the Scottish Liberal Democrats. So, I expect, would many others on here.
249 - How about.
“The SNP peaked in August 2009″
Burnham tractor stats are being met with scepticism judging by the questions. What is their obsession with targets, guarantees and statistics?
I think most of us either don’t believe them, wonder where the money will come from [apart from the dead] or are heartily sick of being bossed about.
249 But, Stuart, when you write the thread, we will all pointedly post about …. London or Newcastle or Birmingham …. or Swansea or Dolgellau.
I’ll never forget the lead article a while back written about Wales — which contained many more posts about Scotland than Wales.
248 - thanks for the info Alan. Sad news for those losing their jobs.
249 Stuart
based on Easterross 193 comment on Cameron how about
” Will English voters accept a third consecutive Scottish PM ?”
251.
But antifrank, I like yanking the Laberals’ “chain”. In their heart of hearts they just love it. It gives them such a thrill just to be noticed.
Kind regards,
Stuart Dickson
Convener of the Sage of Sussex Fanclub (Scotchlandshire Parish Chapter)
251 (cont) - What would be especially useful would be a piece on why Labour is apparently doing relatively so well in Scottish polling. What differential performance will we see? I have a hunch that Labour will do better on the west coast and central belt than in Edinburgh, but I have nothing other than pb anecdote to base that on.
WTF
Harman to ban the word Chairman for being sexist.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/howaboutthat/7193016/Harriet-Harman-backing-move-to-ban-the-term-chairman-for-being-sexist.html
more PC nonsense.
Morning all
214 Nick P We could do with a chart of marginals showing a few demographic indicators that we think are key. I’d suggest the ABC1 vs C2DE division, the ethnic balance and the size of the third party last time.
Good idea. All the info to do this is on the UKPollingReport site, so if anyone has a few spare hours…
225 Scott P “Andy burnham launching cancer pledge at press conf. Tories outside handing out flyers on ‘death tax’ for social care”
Interesting - interesting to see they are on the case so quickly. I flagged it at 11.39 last night!
Conservative equality spokesman Mark Harper said: “At a time when confidence in our political system is at an all-time low in the wake of the expenses scandal, and our economy is in a huge mess, you would have thought Harriet Harman would have better things to be doing.
“A serious government would spend its time on real issues of substance.”
Sorry I hit enter too soon.. I agree with Mark Harper.
224 re humanisation of Brown. This is presumably down to the woman who was brought in recently. Friend of Sarah’s - can’t remember the name just now. Desperation and inexperience; not a good combination and seemingly backfiring already.
Bootle = CON Gain!
Well that was a blinder, not - Burnham is a lightweight.
“• Burnham denied being in favour a £20,000 levy on estates to pay for a national care programme. He said that the government was still considering its options. And he attacked the Conservative alternative as “backward-looking”.
• He reaffirmed Labour’s commitment to giving suspect cancer patients the right to diagnosis within a week. He claimed this would save 10,000 lives and he said it would cost over £500m.
• Alexander announced a new online campaign attacking Tory health policy”
214 Thanks. The same goes for those posters who have jumped to the conclusion that Joanne Cash was forced out for being pregnant.
Come to think of it, Westminster North is a good example of one of those marginal seats which have very few “swingy” voters. It’s very starkly divided between rich Conservatives, and the council estates that vote Labour. John Wheeler never had a large majority, between 1979 and 1997.
WRT Ali Dizaei, David Blunkett deserves a lot of the blame for brokering a deal that put him on the fast track for promotion, when it was quite apparent that he was a rotten apple.
Hector Sants resigned on Monday night as head of the Financial Services Authority, the City watchdog, in a dramatic move that throws the direction of financial regulation into question.
Mr Sants had been a vocal advocate of banking reform both in the UK and internationally in the wake of the financial crisis. He had also been outspoken in his criticism of plans by a potential incoming Conservative government to disband the FSA. The Tories want to give its supervisory role to the Bank of England and spinning out consumer protection responsibilities to a new agency.
http://bit.ly/csC30d
259
One of our Chairmen hates the word “Chair”. She resolutely refuses to use it, and gives short shrift to to anyone that does.
250 Kristin
just been reading through those Balance of Trade stats. they are awful.
faisalislam
FSA spindoctors claiming Hector Sants standing down ‘as planned’. Statement and timing suggest otherwise. could get quite political this.
well done Brunel University:
Dizaei, A. (1997) The Thin Black Line: A Study of Racial Discrimination within the Police. Unpublished PhD Thesis. Uxbridge: Brunel University
Centres of learning, eh?
http://www.homeoffice.gov.uk/rds/prgpdfs/fprs107.pdf **
** “Career Progression of Ethnic
Minority Police Officers”
I don’t think there is any great insight needed to predict the result of the election. People in the south and midlands are completely fed up with Labour and will vote them out of office. That’s the end of the story. I don’t think it’s much to do with whether they are married or not, socially and culturally conservative or not, or anything like that. They just do not want Labour to be the governmet anymore. And nothing that anyone says and does before June is going to alter that narrative.
The challenge for the Tories when tey get in power is turn that negative against Labour into something positive for them. If they do, then they are probably going to be in power for 10 to 15 years at least, if they don’t then they are probably going to lose in 2014/15. None of it is brain surgery reall
My father used to be very, very heavily involved with the Westminster North association (under it’s various guises in the past).
This is going back about 6 years or so, but the main core of the people involved were eccentric to a man.
So Burnham’s policy unravelling already. I wonder if Gordon will look at the clock tomorrow at PMQ’s before deciding which policy it is.
259, silly bitch.
Good to see Tyson back last night. One of the early converts to Cameron who like so many others has now has seen through the thin veneer.
267 - Yes Alan they are now why aren’t they being reported ? These could revise the Q4 figures downwards unless there is very good news elsewhere.. i.e. we might still be in recession.
266 - What do you call a Pregnant Tory Chairman?
An ex Chair?
A Ducking Stool?
A Loveseat?
A Crossbencher?
A Musical Chair?
272, if posters altered by Labour are anything to go by, Brown will repeat that joke several times.
Do we know if he’ll be providing his unique brand of economic assistance to Greece during PMQs?
The map is too small to interprete.
The Tories leading the way yet again:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/education/2010/feb/09/teacher-training-requirements
MPs will today call for sweeping changes to the way teachers are trained in England, recommending that no candidate should be recruited to a graduate teaching course without at least a lower second class degree, and urging the scrapping of government funding for undergraduate training for secondary teachers.
The all-party children, schools and families select committee also said all potential teachers should be required to take tests in literacy, numeracy and information technology before they enter training, rather than afterwards, as happens now. It said the standard of recruitment had to be raised “across the board”: “It is of great concern to us that those with no A-levels, or those with just a pass degree, can gain entry to the teaching profession.”
263 Plato - Yes, one thing that has become clear in recent months is that the suggestion that Andy Burnham might be a future Labour leader can definitely be ruled out.
273 - MD I’ll be kind to you and assume you mean Harman and not me
281,
280, some of us wise folk dancers knew that right from the off. Burnham has never, ever, looked like anything other than a nice but hopelessly overpromoted lightweight with a penchant for mascara.
279 and the difference being the Tories said a 2.1 minimum and Labour a 2.2 - lol ( because graduates from poor backgrounds can’t possibly get a good degree, they are disadvantaged like )
One that Rowan Atkinson/Ben elton didn’t write
well done Brunel University:
Dizaei, A. (1997) The Thin Black Line: A Study of Racial Discrimination within the Police. Unpublished PhD Thesis. Uxbridge: Brunel University
Centres of learning, eh?
http://www.homeoffice.gov.uk/rds/prgpdfs/fprs107.pdf **
** “Career Progression of Ethnic
Minority Police Officers”
It all shows what the politically correct Labour-tamed Home Office obsesses about …. shame it didn’t take fighting crime more seriously
244 Gwynfa
I’m glad to see somebody else commenting on the poor manners of those who shoot straight off topic.
I know of one thread writer who stopped contributing after a very thoughtful piece was pretty much ignored by the ‘back from the pub’ crowd.
Nobody gets paid for penning the thread pieces and a little courtesy wouldn’t go amiss, even if posters don’t like it and are anxious to return to their own preoccupations.
280 - I have long been a Burnham bear. I’m a Benn bear as well, for broadly similar reasons.
Anyone else seem the new Labour poster with Dave’s fave on it.. or have Sky got the only one ?
283 So its only a difference of degree then?
I’ll get my coat….
285 - The quality of posts over the last week has been sizzling. This site was always the leader of the pack and is now as far ahead of the rest as Usain Bolt at the end of 100m.
287 Do tell us more…
250: Kristin @ 10:37
Once upon a time everyone used to worry about the trade figures, then suddenly they went out of fashion. We were told that in the modern world they didn’t matter - something about we can always borrow money and the value of the pound no longer relied on the country being able to pay its way.
I have never been able to accept the arguments put forward, not least because the countries that have healthy trade balances seem to be those that get richer.
285, you’re right.
I probably played a part in helping this thread be skewed hopelessly away from the article. I’m sorry
*reports to the pb.com Punishment Centre for Errant Posters*
On thread!:
I wonder if most people have actually made up their minds now. I know the polls have increased slightly for Labour, but it’s hard to assess whether they’re actually doing better or if they’re being over-reported again and the increase is a combination of that and the noise effect exemplified by the tracker during conference.
The next election will essentially be the electorate telling Brown to fck off. I’m not sure if anything significant will happen that will change that.
Also, with some now reporting April could be the time, what would that mean for the Budget and Chilcott? Would Labour dodge the Budget, and would Brown have time to appear before Chilcott? If he doesn’t that would mean the very GE date and campaign would feature his fritness.
287 I assume you mean face, if so which one? boom boom.
288 - oh the outrage shown when the Tories suggested a 2.1 and people wonder why they are not being more specific on policy. Labour can’t write a manifesto worth a salt till Dave or George tells them what should be in it
Anyway back to the TRADE DEFICIT ? Anyone seen it reported like anywhere?
291 Reminds me of the dotcom bubble when making profits was considered old fashioned.
Eric Pickles, who attended the meeting to defend Ms Cash.
IN A shock move, less than four months before the general election Joanne Cash has resigned as the Tory Party candidate for
Westminster North.
Ms Cash, one of David Cameron’s A-list female parliamentary candidates, made the surprise announcement at an emergency meeting held in Westbourne Grove last night.
A stir was also caused by the arrival of the Tory Party chairman Eric Pickles, who attended the meeting to defend Ms Cash.
For the full story read the Wood&Vale on Thursday
290 .. dave looking 2 ways sheery on left side in colour “IN FRONT OF CAMERA” and right side looking the other way in black and white “BEHIND THE CAMERA” grim looking some NHS stuff
even Sky said it wasn’t a simple message..
Anyway that clears the decks for picture of Brown with FIVE MORE YEARS ?
WHY ARE THE LDs NOT DOING BETTER ?
I have been thinking about this overnight following the last discussion on ICM. There is a tendancy to focus on the Con\Lab fight,but surely one of the questions should be why aren’t the LDs on 30% instead of Labour ?
They should have everything in their favour:
- hugely unpopular PM
- worst recession since whenever
- uncontaminated brand
- national party
- home for the dissatisfied
I can’t answer it - any ideas ?
294 Business Week and a couple of websites seem to be about it…
sheery = cheery
294. Yup, it’s on reuters.
uk.reuters.com
298 - Because they are led by the most strategically incompetent party leader since Michael Foot?
294 http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-02-09/u-k-trade-deficit-swells-to-widest-in-almost-a-year-update1-.html
291 HurstL no I don’t accept those arguments either especially in the current economic climate.
289 That’s true Antifrank, and even the Persistently Poisonous Party Proselytisers showed some respect to Andy Cooke’s brilliant ouvres.
You can’t expect threads and thread pieces to attain those kinds of standards all the time and a little more appreciation for those who keep the Site at the forefront of political discourse would not go amiss.
Morris Dancer’s contrition is noted with thanks and he is excused an appearance before the Disciplinary Committee.
299 / 301 - yes all those main stream outlets
So we probably never got out of recession.
297 Kristin - ahhhh.
That’s the CamerON/OFF thing then - it sounded like a crap idea.
Playing the man again, I amazed they are still trying that failed tactic yet again.
296 - The Tories sent the Party Chairman Pickles and Leader in the Lords Stratchclyde to try and prevent Cash walking, according to some reports.
Once again, the analysis on PB - this time from Andy and Blair - means the MSM is playing catchup.
As a former Tory PPC myself in a LD/Con seat, and an ex-councillor representing a ward in a 100+ Conservative target marginal, I’d say the key to betting in the marginals will be differential turnout and the return of non-voting Tory identifiers - those who aren’t dead, of course, as pointed out earlier.
Does anyone have any relevant data on this?
Does anyone know where i can find a list of the marginals, and when they were last won by the Tories? I’m guessing most of them would be 1992.
279: David @ 10:54
The idea of improving the educational standrad and subject knowledge if teachers is indeed laudable. However, unless action is taken to improve classroomm discipline and signifcantly raise teachers salaries all that will happen is that in a few years we will have an even bigger shortage of teachers.
298. Because a certain lib dem mp, a mr chris huhne, wont stop attacking the tories with every single breath. All he does is reinforce the vote yellow get brown message and, if for some bizaar reason the lib dems vote with the government on AV then they can kiss goodbye to those con-lib marginals.
They should be attacking brown and labour day in day out.
298 2p on the LDs.
No USP
No campaign I can see
No big idea
Incoherent - Both for and against Lisbon, Tuition fees, banks
Dull but worthy leader
Disorganised (see conference).
Lacking funds.
Clearly do not have a chance of power, so why engage with them.
Not such a great track record in local govt.
Ageing activists (well down my way at least).
The most “Holier than thou” party.
Big shame IMO.
302 antifrank
well it could be that, Clegg concentrating on the tactics rather than the strategy. But it still doesn’t explain why the LDs aren’t breathing doen Labour’s neck. The last time we were in a similar situation in 1981 the SDP\Libs were scheduled to be the second force in politics, until the Falklands kicked in.
297
Wow. Labour have resorted to the “Demon Eyes” poster really early. They really must be panicking over having nothing left in the barrel.
291 Britain’s balance of payments deficit is not that big overall. The trade figures exclude remittances from overseas investments. Overall, the deficit’s about 1.5% of GDP.
Neither large balance of payments surpluses, nor large deficits, are desirable. The former is usually a feature of a malfunctioning domestic economy, like Japan’s, the latter denotes an economy that’s rapidly overheating.
305, you mean I won’t be thrashed by a stern young lady?
*sighs* …and I tried *so* hard to be bad
I do feel annoyed with myself though. It’s not the same, but it can be quite difficult to write good F1 posts so I do appreciate how much effort can sometimes be needed, and to be ignored whilst old arguments are replayed must be bloody infuriating.
From now on I shall do my utmost to at least reply to the article’s contents firstly, and to chastise and, if necessary, fire into the Channel from a trebuchet on the south coast, those who persist in not saying adequate courtesy and respect to the thread-writer.
I may make an exception for when I think Mr. Smithson is taking the piss, such as when he suggested Tessa Jowell could be Labour leader.
ptp et al
In my own defence, my first post @ 4 was anecdotely on thread, though I did get steered away, so naughty step for me. And I should follow my own advice and keep off ConHome for information re PPC’s stepping down. I notice then the Mail story is wrong Pickles went to support her.
298 - I think they would be doing a lot better if they had either Paddy Ashdown or Charles Kennedy in charge.
I think both of them would be attacking Labour with more vigour than Nick Clegg is at the moment.
(Granted Nick Clegg is in a difficult position, in some seats needing the votes of Labour voters to hold of the resurgence of the Tories)
313.
To be fair there are not many Labour seats that the LDs can pinch.
Its more of a hold what we have / Stalingrad situation for them.
A bit short termist really.
317 - I have money on Tessa Jowell being the next Labour leader. My £2 at 799/1 on Betfair has to be value! (I also have another £20 at 100/1)
313 Jonathan
maybe, but the other 2 parties aren’t exactly crystal clear on what they would do, and since Clegg isn’t Brown you’d have thought he might have picked up a few more votes from fed up voters who can’t bring themseleves to vote Tory.
298 In fact Alanbrook I think they will be quite happy to be starting a GE campaign from where they are.
They usually put on a couple of points during campaigns. This is normally attributed to increased exposure and if that is repeated, they can expect to be round about 22% on GE Day. That suggests they will return with about the same number of seats as they have now.
in the circumstances, that would be a reasonably good result.
*Betting Post*
Con Maj on the Betfair NOM market moved 3 clicks overnight from 1.51 > 1.48 despite a poll showing a “hung parliament” - is this the pb.com/Cooke effect?
NOM out to 3.5
How are the PIGS getting on today?
321, haha, I’m sorry but I hope you lose (I backed Harman at 5/1).
321 - Didn’t you also back Hazel Blears?
(Mind you i did back John Reid and Tony Blair)
326 Ditto - I’ve also got Balls, Straw and Denham
320 GHF
seating seats aside, you would still have thought they should have more of the protest votes as has happened in the past.
Are none of the LD bloggers not concerned that they should be chasing Labour to the national vote % finishing line and they are not ?
326 - Oh I have a few other shots in my locker. My big position is against Ed Miliband, despite the repeated and clear warnings of Richard Nabavi and tim on the subject. I am green if David Miliband, Ed Balls, Yvette Cooper, Jon Cruddas or Alistair Darling win, as well as Tessa Jowell. Oh, and rustling around in my back pocket, what do I find but slips for Harriet Harman and, ahem, Hazel Blears?
I wonder, would skint Labour be putting out posters this far out from May ?
298 Alanbrooke. Given your list of Labour negatives, which is devastating, the same question could be asked concerning the narrowing of the Lab/Con gap. It does not appear to make sense - unless AR are right,Andy cooke is right and the other pollsters are wrong. The AR marginals poll may throw some light on it - but try saying this on UKPolling report! The opposition to AR there is virulent. This is why I have been suggesting for some time that AR be invited to give their own analysis of the disparity in the polls.However, nothing is going to satisfy Mr.Rob Sheffield this side of the GE.
Huhne actually souunding less like a complete bully on Sky at the moment. Being pretty down the line[ish] between the parties.
323 PtP…if the LDs retain their current seat numbers i shall give up betting.
Telegraph blog on US polls
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/nilegardiner/100025483/barack-obama-faces-armageddon-in-latest-polls/
About to be relevant as I checked and I have NO bets beyond the current GE - my account will be squared up either way.
325 timmo
from FT alphaville
“That’s Portugal’s sovereign CDS curve and it has inverted — indicating that the market now believes there’s a higher probability of a default in the short-term than in the longer term. Or at least, they’re paying more for short-term protection against Portugese debt defaulting than for longer-term.
FT Alphaville readers will remember that Greece’s curve inverted almost three weeks ago. Portugal had been flattening for some time, Spain’s CDS term structure meanwhile, remains stubbornly upwards-sloping:”
327 - Looking through it, I’ve backed 15 different people to be next Labour leader.
Thinking about it, who in February 1997 would have predicted William Hague would be the next Tory leader?
331, maybe this far out from early April
298
The general opinion is that the country has taken a small step to the right and the Lib/Dems are attacking from the (albeit vaguely libertarian) left
319
I think they would be in a better position if they had Ming the Meaningless in charge…
OK I’m joking
but not by much
338. Perhaps its cheaper to leak to Sky than put on a billboard
Morris/Kristin
Thanks for your comments and before I get cast too squarely in the role of Head Prefect I should say that you two are by no means the wors offenders. You probably appreciate more than most indeed that PB’s reputation owes much to the quality of its regular contributors and anything that puts them off is regretable.
By the way I’d like to add, Morris, that I really enjoy your F1 updates, even though I hate the sport! Do keep them coming.
Big Eric on Sky.
Struggling on Ashcroft again, unfortunately Sky didn’t ask him what he was doing last night.
337 - don’t the Tories tend to never ever pick the front-runner?
188 Easterross
“There is absolutely no evidence that a Cameron government would fail to learn from the mistakes of Margaret Thatcher regarding Scotland.”
Yes there is: Cameron hasd basically told the SNP to stay out of the issue of Nuclear weapons as it is not devolved- this in spite of:
* Holyrood is against Trident renewal
* Scots MPs are against Trident renewal
* The majority of Scots are against Trident renewal
Additionally, I have pointed out before that even with there being a strong likelihood of a Tory UK victory in the GE, support for the Conservatives in Scotland is lower than it ever was under Thatcher.
This is so much the case that even if the results in Scotland for the Conservatives exceed their most optimistic hopes they will have fewer seats than they had at any time under Thatcher.
I would not be at all surprised if the Tories had half a dozen seats in Scotland after the GE, but that will be their high water mark.
339 - I never thought I would say this, but it would seem Chris Huhne was right all along.
Calamity Clegg it is.
Liberal Democrat leadership contender Chris Huhne has issued an apology over a paper describing leadership rival Nick Clegg as a “calamity”.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/7100615.stm
334 That’s quite some hostage to fortune, Graham!
All the indications are that they’ll shed a few seats but not many.
Hope you don’t stand to lose too much
344. Are the majority of Scots for or against Faslane being shut down as there are no nuclear subs to service ?
330 LOL, Antifrank!
There should be some sort of award for PBers’ most embarrassing bets.
Mine was Le Pen to win the French Presidential.
Yes, I know…
Pickles did well to put Ashcroft’s donations in perspective. Took a swip at Labour and the unions.
332 Svejk
yes all of that re the conservatives and that gets done to death here between Tories saying Dave walks on water and tim’s less positive view.
But consider this in the 1983 GE ( after the Falklands )the national vote share for
Labour was 27.6 %
Alliance 25.4%
in the previous 2 years the Alliance had had polls placing them above both major parties.
Today in similar circumstances deep recession, unpopular PM the gap is circa 10% and not 2.2%
Even allowing for poll under-reporting that’s one large gap and yet nobody seems to be asking why. If I was a LD I would be asking some fundamental questions.
348. I had the SNP to win Dunfermiline ….
344. Tom “This is so much the case that even if the results in Scotland for the Conservatives exceed their most optimistic hopes they will have fewer seats than they had at any time under Thatcher.
I would not be at all surprised if the Tories had half a dozen seats in Scotland after the GE, but that will be their high water mark.”
There are fewer Scottish seats in total. Do you mean as a percentage?
348 - I believe I’m not the only PBer to have money on Hazel Blears. In fairness to myself, if she had not been the totemic Labour expenses villain, I do think she would be a very serious contender now and at odds far shorter than the 80/1 that I got her for.
I like the idea, though. I’m sure that’s not the most embarrassing bet I’ve made. Just let me rack my brains…
341, that’s a really weird view you have, Mr. Punter
Anyway, Jerez 1 starts tomorrow, I think, so I’ll probably post plenty of times from that. Plus I intend to write a mid-test post on pb2 when it’s concluded.
348 - England to beat South Africa in the pool match of the 2007 Rugby world cup.
Final Score
England 0 - 36 South Africa.
353 “I do think she would be a very serious contender now”
Hazel was never a serious contender. Not within a million miles. This shows the limits risks of political betting outside of your tribe.
341 - ptp - duly noted, must do better. The site is going from strength to strength at the moment, just look at how widely it referenced in the online press, and I get the impression certain journalists look here for material more than you or I would credit.
355, we played shit in that group. Still beat Australia and France though, and should’ve won the final.
I keep thinking of backing England for the Slam at about 8/1, but I know it’s more hope than belief.
Joey Jones obviously thinks Labour posters aren’t good.
I am not sure plastering Cameron’s face everywhere with a message that is hard to read it a great idea.
Maybe Labour should be quiet about the poster campaign’s until they see how their own bombs. I remember Labour supporters saying it was a mistake to put the word ‘cut’ and ‘NHS’ together on a poster people whizz by.
Puting a rather serious but pleasent [and some might say statesmanlike] picture of Cameron, one colour, one black and white looks like the cover of GQ!
348 - I did back Mark 0*ten about 24hrs before the sh1t hit the fan
316: Sean Fear @ 11:15
“Britain’s balance of payments deficit is not that big overall. The trade figures exclude remittances from overseas investments. Overall, the deficit’s about 1.5% of GDP.”
I take your point about not including remittances from overseas investment. Does the 1.5% figure include money leaving the country from businesses that are foreign owned (there do seem to be so many of them these days)?
Leaving that aside, the 1.5% has to be funded. Given that the UK’s private savings ratio is very low, presumably this is done primarily from borrowing from abroad. Does not that add to he export of wealth? One and a half percent sounds a nice small manageable number, but compounded year after year? When was the last time the UK was in surplus?
329, 320 - There is a good list of Labour seats the LDs are fighting hard in, and little point in them worrying about vote share.
The Alliance nearly caught up with Labour in vote share in 1983 and little good it did them. It is where they get votes that counts.
Based on the UK Polling Report list there are 13 Labour seats where the Lib Dems need a 5% swing or less to win (excluding Ox East which they have down as an LD seat). There are a further 28 within na 10% swing. The list is quite a mixed bag and includes many they don’t stand any realistic chance in - but there are plenty there they are fighting hard. There are additional seats that the LDs are working very hard in that are further down the list than that, but still within swings they won last time.
At the last election the won several seats from labour with swings way above the UNS (Hornsey, Cardiff Central, Manc Withington etc.) and also clocked up several near misses with equally big swings (Watford, Ox East, Isl Sth etc.).
In seats where they are the clear challengers, have a solid local organisation and are getting targeted help from the national party I can see them clocking up a reasonable number of gains from this list.
That’s one reason why I am not convinced by the LD seat projections. If the LDs pick up 10 gains from Labour, say, then they would have to lose 23 seats to the Tories to end up on 50 seats. If they pick up 15, the Tories would have to gain 28 from them, and so on. Looking at the list of Tory targets, I can’t see that that is going to be easy for the Tories.
360. The threads around the time of that Lib Dem leadership contest were some of the funniest ever.
360 You should keep some things to yourself.
358 - I remember spending lots of money, with touts to go see the matches in France. Beating the Aussies, and France was sweet.
We should have won the final, but for that numpty TV ref.
We have a good chance of the slam, although the last match is against France, in France.
I like the idea of PtP being Head Boy.
244-Did he?
I think this may be part of pb.com-lore. General swing in 2005 seems to have been about 3-3.1%. Swing in Broxtowe about 3.6%.
For comparison, Gedling was 2.1%, Sherwood 3.2%, Newark 2.6%, Amber Valley 2.5%, Erewash 0.1%, etc.
333. Huhne been on telly again this morning? I wouldn’t be at all surprised if his electorate are getting more than a bit fed up with their “celebrity” MP.
356 - There will be serious female contenders. The question is who? Harriet Harman is probably too old and probably doesn’t want to be leader of the opposition. Yvette Cooper won’t stand against her husband (my bet on her is effectively a longer shot bet that Ed Balls will lose his constituency). Other female candidates are hard to spot - hence my rather fanciful bet on Tessa Jowell.
For that reason, if no other, Hazel Blears would be seriously talked about now if she hadn’t blotted her copybook. Whatever her faults, she is a committed Labour supporter with energy and has a distinctive analysis of where Labour is failing (an analysis which in my view is closer to the heart of Labour’s problems than most of the supposedly more heavyweight candidates have managed).
NB I would never have seen her winning: I did take note of the result of the deputy leader election.
359. The obvious comment is that it proves Labour knows putting Gordo’s picture on a poster is a vote loser. He has been airbrushed out of their election campaign
365, hehe. Like the 2003 World Cup Final writ small. Victory is always sweetest in the enemy’s own territory.
Really looking forward to Flutey coming back. Flood’s a liability. Also, the final try we scored was practically French in its fluidity and excellence. Bodes well for the future.
368 On SKY and sounding less hectoring than usual. Maybe Clegg has applied some discipline PtP style.
369 - Blears never had a chance.
Nor does Burnham.
Grayling ang Kirkbride have both been shorter odds for the Tory leadership than these two.
370 - depends on which party uses it
370. That’s a very good point. What or rather who do they put on?
Cameron is the lesser of two evils!
Oh here’s another Conservative idea being touted on Labourlist.. regionlism..
At first I thought he’d nicked Mike’s map above..
http://www.labourlist.org/genuine-regionalism-could-save-the-economy-and-labour
And of course the Labour poster is actually a copy of a Conservative one. Another idea they are trying to follow…
http://www.spectator.co.uk/article_images/articledir_7136/3568481/1_fullsize.jpg
373 - Which female Labour politicians do you see as serious contenders?
371 - I’d expect us to beat Ireland at home and Scotland away.
I think Martin Johnson is on the right path, though I think we should expect the occasional two steps forward, one step backwards.
(My 2nd favourite rugby t shirt is the one celebrating our World Cup Victory in 2003, with “In your backyard” emblazoned on it)
376 that would regionalism with an a
350 Foot was a leftie and Thatcher was a right-winger who left the whole centre ground to the Alliance. Furthermoore the Alliance was a combination of the Liberal vote (led by the very popular and well known David Steel) and the shiny, new and exciting SDP led by pretty popular Labour figures. And there was no large minor party vote for the Alliance to compete with.
With that in mind, the Lib Dems on 20% with a new leader who hasn’t been through an election yet, and several years of messing about behind them, is not too bad at all going into an election. It is better than where they were at this stage in 2001, 1997 and 1992 and about one point down on 2005 and 1987.
376, it’s a map copied from here, but from January.
382 - thanks , I thought it looked familiar…
% of owner occupiers in a variety of satellite towns:
Broxtowe - 76.8%
Bury N - 76.9%
Stourbridge - 75.3%
Dartford - 74.9%
Caerphilly - 74.2%
Morley & O - 76.1%
Wirral W - 81.9%
Tynemouth - 72.7%
369 Seriously antifrank. Blears was never a contender, not even close. If you do, you really don’t understand Labour and should modify your betting positions accordingly. Just trying to help!
379, hmm. There aren’t many easy matches. We should kick Italy’s arse if they’re as passionless as they were against Ireland.
Ireland will be tough, the Scots won’t roll over and have a good defence, and France won’t be easy. Hence me not backing England for the Slam.
#352 Scott P
Conservative Scotland seats were:
1979 22
1983 21
1987 10
Therefore on a percentage basis the Tories need to win 9 (+8 re 2005) seats in Scotland at the GE to have done better than Thatcher at the nadir of her support in Scotland.
378 - None.
It’ll be Darling or a Miliband.
385 - I’m on receive rather than transmit today. Who do you see as the serious female leadership contenders?
To 310
Does anyone know where i can find a list of the marginals, and when they were last won by the Tories? I’m guessing most of them would be 1992.
by The Screaming Eagles February 9th, 2010 at 11:12 am
Here are the margins for 2005
http://www.justsolutions.eu/marginals/startmarginals.html
For 2001 http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/static/vote2001/results_constituencies/default.stm
386 - Well I’m going to back England to win the Slam now.
I’ve convinced myself.
367. The Labour vote share in Broxtowe fell 6.7%
Falls in neighbouring seats;
Gedling -5%
Nott’ham S -7.1%
Nott’ham N -5.8%
Erewash -4.7%
Amber Valley -6.3%
Ashfield -9.5%
So on this measure too there is zilch evidence of outperformance; indeed it was one of worst local results.
391, good luck
390 - Thank you.
357 Oh, it’s been known for a long time, Kristin, that many journalists fish in this pond.
Anyone got a link to the Labour Cameron poster?
Without seeing it, I do think Labour are right (from their point of view) to focus on the policy-lite, wibbly-wobbly, flip-floppy, say one thing/say another, airbrushed side of Cameron. The next election is as much a verdict on Dave as it is on Gordon. And by focusing on voters’ quite legitimate and increasingly vocal doubts on Cameron, Labour can (and increasingly I think, will) deprive the Tories of a majority. Or even a dead heat, implausible as that seemed six months ago.
As much as the Tories’ strongest asset is Gordon Brown, Labour’s is probably David Cameron.
388: Darling no, Millibands yes.
Darling is just John Major Mk2.
386 At least the Irish will be at Twickenham. Otherwise there would be no chance IMO. England have a decent record against the French so could win that. But they will be very lucky to win away against both the Scots and the French. It will depend a lot on the other matches. If France/ Scotland lose another match England will have a better chance.
BBC now reporting denial of death tax
The government has denied reports it is planning a fixed £20,000 compulsory inheritance levy to help pay for social care for the elderly in England.
http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8505821.stm
396. Oh rubbish Bob - you have completely lost the plot.
399: wibble wobble labour
‘As much as the Tories’ strongest asset is Gordon Brown, Labour’s is probably David Cameron.’
I think that’s wrong. Right wing Tories see Cameron as a weak link. Not floaters.
Female contenders for Labour leader?
Well, who’s been in the Cabinet should give you a list of possibles:
Harman
Jowell
Blears
Flint
Hodge
Beckett
Hewitt
er….
Not a very exciting list, is it?
By way of comparison % of owner occupiers:
Camberwell & Peckham - 27.9%
400 - we’ll see on May 7th. I can’t see anything changing my view that the Tories are letting this one slip from their grasp. I will never forgive them if they do.
391, 398
After last w/e I backed England for Triple Crown and Championship leader but not for Grand Slam.
Thanks to Gwynfa for his friendly note at 244. In fact I did struggle with the uni-related vote in 2005, and it’s this segment where I’m getting better returns than I did then - mostly simply switching back from LibDem.
astateofdenmark - I remember the same “urban feel” thing from way back when I was Euro-candidate for East Sussex and South Kent in 1995, when it was a FPTP system and Labour was clealry third in the area. The entire sprawling constituency was heavy going for Labour apart from Hastings, until we got to the outskirts of the London conurbation, where the atmosphere was completely different - it felt like a different country.
I suspect that Blair’s analysis works well for somewhere like Milton Keynes, which is a large self-standing town with several constituencies and not near a city. It’s possibly less relevant in what are effectively city suburbs.
For whoever was looking for the trade figures - they’re now on the BBC Business site.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8505680.stm
402 - The decline in Camerons personal rating tells us otherwise.
Should this have read 2010 not 2001?
What about 2001 ?
From the above, it is safe to conclude that Labour will win the next election. It is a safe bet……………or is it ?
One of the main things that came out of the 1997 election was voter volatility. If it happened in 1997, then it could happen in 2001. The number of people who changed support from the 1992 election to the 1997 election has been as high as 23% by NOP. This is an increase of 2% from the 1987 election. If this trend is continued, as many as 25% may change their voting allegiance in 2001.
In 1997, Labour had very strong representation amongst the 18 to 29 years old age group. If this group feels significantly let down by the last 5 years of Labour government, it could turn against Blair. In the 5 years from 1992 to 1995, the Tories lost 18% support among this group while Labour won 19% from this group.
The evidence tends to suggest that the Tories suffered the most from tactical voting
The Tories suffered in 1997 from the electoral system. If the Tories had got the number of seats that their percentage of votes in each constituency represented, then the overall Labour majority would have been cut to 131 - still very large from a Parliamentary perspective. Likewise, the LibDems success would have been cut to 28 seats rather than 46. But the support for the Tories is concentrated primarily in the south, whereas support for the Labour Party has expanded away from the traditional areas associated with the Labour Party. But expansion can always lead to contraction and tactical voting in 1997 might not repeat itself in 2001.
385 - I don’t understand any of the political parties at all. They suffer from inbreeding that repeatedly results in them selecting a less suitable leader and sometimes an entirely unsuitable leader. That is why this site is so helpful for understanding the collective madness that infects political parties from time to time.
For the record, Hazel Blears objectively is a much more promising leader of the Labour party (leaving expenses out of the equation) than either Miliband. That both tim and you dismiss her out of hand is very revealing.
403 - You’ve forgotten Yvette Cooper.
She’s got to be a contender, especially if Ed loses his seat.
389 Harman is the nearest. She ran a good machine campaign for Dep Lead. But the leadership is another thing entirely. Who gets it depends on the closeness of the GE result. There may not be a vacancy.
401 - can I say jelly on a plate.. ?
Hilarious - Andrew Neil to John Denham ‘Why do more people want to emigrate than vote for you?’
362 381 Park Town Boy
Some points.
- while it tactically is correct to focus on seats to ignore the national % is short-sighted as it sets the national mood music. The higher the % the more people are likely to vote for you as it doesn’t feel like a wated vote.
- while I accept your analysis of the centre ground in 1983, the conditions today also leave lots of places for the LDs to pick up support. Part of the Thatcher legacy was to distance herself from large parts of Northern England , Wales, Scotland. The protest \disllusion votes here are going to various Nats. or the stay at homes. Really the LDs should be in much better shape.
The missing support leads me to wonder:
1. Is LD trailing down to something with in the party remit - leader, policy in which case they can fix it but need to know what they are targetting ?
2. Is LD vote performance structural ie. 20 + or - 5% is as much as they can ever hope for and therefore PR is their only chance ?
405 - dont reach for the tablets quite yet
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/5762243/plenty-to-encourage-the-tories-in-the-populus-poll.thtml
Sants resigning from the FSA is a huge development…
Not sure what to make of this but in no way is it positive for Labour and their reliance on that regulator…. as we know the Tories want to break the FSA up!
Another straw in the wind that Lab are on the way out.
408 - thanks Baskerville, I had the figures, I just hadn’t seen them reported.
IN A shock move, less than four months before the general election Joanne Cash has resigned as the Tory Party candidate for Westminster North.
Ms Cash, one of David Cameron’s A-list female parliamentary candidates, made the surprise announcement at an emergency meeting held in Westbourne Grove last night.
A stir was also caused by the arrival of the Tory Party chairman Eric Pickles, who attended the meeting to defend Ms Cash.
For the full story read the Wood&Vale on Thursday.
To defend her?
http://woodandvale.london24.net/woodandvale/news/story.aspx?brand=NorthLondon24&category=Newswoodandvale&tBrand=northlondon24&tCategory=newswoodandvale&itemid=WeED09%20Feb%202010%2010:30:58:660
Sky reporting that the ballot to see GB in front of Chilcot is now open online.. no link given. Anyone fancy going ?
There is, perhaps, a tiny smidgen of VALUE in the odds against England winning the Championship. 3/1 against seems slightly generous.
5/2 or 2/1 more reasonable?
England’s hardest match is France in France, but England have a decent record of putting the hoodoo on the Frogs when it really matters (see the two last World Cups). That said, France did look ominously efficient in Edinburgh.
England will beat the Jocks. They wuz rubbish.
I’d have England as second favourites. At the moment they are third behind Ireland.
I can’t be bothered typing them all out, but there’s similarities between the above seats (post 392) in age profile as well (with one caveat):
The % of population over 60 is 19-20% in all of them, with the caveat that the marginal towns further north have a slightly higher age profile, which combined with the slighltly higher % owner occupiers as you go north, probably represents the latent antipathy to the tories further north.
% of people over 60 in Camberwell and Peckham - 13%.
411 It’s revealing of the fact that she was never rated amongst activists and never had an entourage (a Blairite outsider). She did a good comedy turn at conference. That was about as far as it went. Seriously, she was never close whatever you think of her. Can you really see her leading a cabinet?
412. Might we see a Cooper-Balls Granita moment: YC tells hubby she has a better chance of winning, he agrees to step aside and is promised the shadow chancellorship…
The Labour focus on Ashcroft is the sign of a party resigned to defeat. They are clearly going to blame that loss on the inherent unfairness of Ashcroft funding the Tories’ marginals campaign. Of course, Labour’s losing will have nothing at all to do with having f*cked the country for 13 years… Nope. It was all down to the Ashcroft money.
417 - I felt like a tablet or two last night after enduring Sir George Young’s failure to answer a straight question over Ashcroft, under pressure from Maitliss/Huhne/Bradshaw. Conclusion of the floating voter - both sides as bent as the other.
Everyone keeps saying “wait for the campaign, 4 weeks of Cameron on the stump”, but it will also mean 4 weeks of Labour, the Lib Dems and the BBC ganging up on the Tories. And Cameron getting it from 3 directions in the TV debates if he can’t find a way of extricating himself from them. And a somehow resurgent Brown rising from the ashes to cap it all.
It’s 1992 all over again, I tell thee…
424 Jonathan - Do you agree with tim that Darling is a strong contender?
424 - After seeing Gordon Brown lead a cabinet, anything is possible.
415 Nick Palmer seemed a bit rattled by the UK population’s desire to emigrate after over a decade of Labour.
422 SeanT
Yes I reckon England will win the championship on pionts difference, i.e. two or more teams with equal championship points.
So Labour are putting posters out now, then the GE is just around the corner.
Going on about Cameron being wibbley wobbley will only serve to remind people of Brown’s duplicity.
420 - making way for someone else, perhaps?
412. Oh dear. I do wish you hadn’t reminded me, Cooper is a possibility so dire that a protective amnesia kicked in, and now you’ve broken through my defenses.
425 - You forget the comedy of the Shadow Cabinet elections.
92 - ‘The question Mike Smithson might want to start addressing is this one: what will it take for Labour to win an overall majority. Because THAT is the way this is now heading. Like it, or not’
Haven’t laughed so hard at a post for a while! Not even Tim, Gobble and Roddy believe there’s going to be a Labour majority.
Care to explain your thinking?
435. That will be something to behold.
429
When did Gordon lead? I demand to know of this rare event!
BBCLauraK
The PM will appear at Iraq Inquiry in ‘early March’ + members of the public will have to enter ballot to get a seat- inquiry team says
434 - Perhaps this is why she wont become leader
http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2009/12/11/will-five-or-more-of-these-lose-their-seats/#comment-1344523
424 - It’s not a Cabinet you need to see her leading, it’s a shadow Cabinet.
Actually, what Labour have lacked recently is a Cabinet minister for Newsnight and the Today programme. The Cabinet is stuffed full of ministers with a sense of entitlement. Hazel Blears would get stuck in, vigorously defend the Labour position and relentlessly attack the Conservatives. Who does that now? Ed Balls has a go, but is nowhere near as convincing and probably sheds Labour 20,000 votes each time he does it.
It appears that activists are looking for the wrong things in a leader. If you want a reasonably good-looking middle-aged middle-class man who will look the part, by all means pick a Miliband. If the choice is about as successful as Nick Clegg, don’t blame me.
I’d have said that Labour needs to rethink its approach completely. That either needs a chair(man/woman) of the board to foster ideas - Alistair Darling or Harriet Harman might both manage this - or it needs a rethinker. Jon Cruddas, possibly.
435. Yes - I’m actually contradicting myself from a week or so ago when I suggested Balls might not get enough votes to get into the Shadow Cabinet.
*****BETTING POST*****
Anyone apart from me fancy Spic n Span in the 2.50 at Southwell?
438 - He’s lead them to electoral oblivion. See last years Euros and Local elections.
428 A bit of a wildcard IMO.
I will be surprised if he doesn’t go for it. And he clearly has the sympathy of the activists. That makes him a medium contender. But he will need more than that to get it.
I really don’t know how well connected he is to the unions, PLP and to the likes of Mandleson/ Kinnock/ Blair/ Brown. You will need these to make you a strong contender IMO. In the same ways as Dave had Michael Howard behind him.
If the result is close, he would be certainly be a credible PM in waiting.
NPMP
I think it’s fair to say that there is a difference between fairly independent towns like Milton Keynes, Margate, Brighton, Southampton, Oxford, Cambridge, Crewe, Carlisle, Swansea, Dundee etc
and
Satellite Towns, which are effectively suburbs, or exburbs? as I think they’re called. Which would include Broxtowe, Dartford, Dudley, Wakefield, Wirral, Bury etc.
Re Sants - Goddard says she is not surprised Sants is choosing to leave in the Summer, given the continued uncertainty surrounding the impact on the FSA of a change of government at the next General Election.
“Hector stayed during a very difficult time, but Lord Turner is now taking the reins. I think it is the right time for him to leave, given the likely change of government. He has been very vocal against the Tories’ proposed changes to the FSA.”
441 You make some reasonable points, but your putting the cart before the horse. The first step any leader has to take is to maintain the confidence of a team. Blears would have needed the political strength to command the likes of Mandleson, Balls, Purnell, Milliband etc and keep the unions on board. She may present a fresh PR face, but I doubt she could have got beyond square one.
I hate to say the name….
What about Liam Byrne? Or do Baldies have no chance?
That’ll be ‘Middle England’ then?
O/T Should have taken a pic, though I was on the opposite platform - last night at Moorgate station Circle line platform, one of the destination boards displayed:
“[First Train] Nit in Service”
449 - If he stood, I’d join the labour party, just so I could vote for him.
He’d be great for the Tories, even the interviewers want to punch him.
449. Here is his campaign poster
http://imagecache.allposters.com/images/pic/146/PP0150~Rainbow-Zippy-Posters.jpg
448 - I never saw Hazel Blears winning, I saw her as a trading bet. My interest at present (for the same reason) is identifying a woman who will stand, because her odds will shorten sharply the moment that she does. Harriet Harman is the obvious choice, but I just don’t see her relishing being leader of the opposition.
I do worry, for the sake of Britain’s democracy, that if Labour lose the next election quite badly - as I expect - they will make the same mistake that the Tories made in 1997 of not fully appreciating how much they need to change themselves. We can’t afford 10 years of the Tories having no real opposition to speak of.
I know StJohn think the next labour leader will be Peter Hain.
I have the utmost respect for StJohn as a better and a person, but even I think he’s barking on that one.
452: The name just popped into my head. I get the feeling they’ll go for someone who is hungry and an attack dog, Zippy fits that mould, as does Balls. someone who can land a few punches….even if most people want to punch him instead.
346 PtP…i shall be delighted with a majority Tory government lead by DC with Osbourne as chancellor.there you have my market exposure…and of course to sums that i can afford to lose!!!!
chris huhne just confirmed he would be taking the labour whip and support AV despite not liking it very much. Lib dems have just given cameron his greatest ammo: vote yellow get brown. There is no escaping this charge now because cam will promise to keep fptp, lib dems to supporting lab in AV. So voters be under no doubt, lib dems will be proping up labour after the next election if hung. I really do hope cam goes hard on this.
Is this the time to sell lib dem seats?? So far their vote has been holding up in lib-con marginals. Hopefully the ars poll will show whether there has indeed been a shift. I fully expect the tories to launch a campaign on this in those marginals soon after the vote.
427
Brown will be out of the campaign until the last moment.
The cabinet will be the face of Labour
Labour will dismiss the shadow cabinet and attrite Cameron’s public persona - every wobble highlighted, every slip of the tongue given headline treatment.
Above it all will be the ‘Dear Leader’, bearing his heavy personal burdens, yet still struggling on for the greater good of the Heimat…
452 Byrne is an odd one - he is punchable [not as much as Balls though] yet he’s very good at putting the message across. His list of do’s/don’ts still makes me laugh.
Denham is their best bet but isn’t his seat wobbly?
Just watched Dominic Grieve on the DP - he really is superb, wish we could clone him. The Prf from Strathclyde Uni completely demolished Labour’s argument that AV was fairer.
366 Would you like to see me after School, Sally?
The AV vote is being portrayed by the BBC as a Labour split:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8505255.stm
Not exactly what Gordon Brown was looking for, I’m sure.
449 - baldies would have more of a chance now than in the last couple of decades, I would have thought. Of course many previous PMs were folically challenged - before the age of the TV.
However, Byrne is seriously hampered by the fact that he’s a loathsome human being and is particularly bad at hiding it.
454 Well don’t forget that Cameron was only possible because Howard paved the way for him. If you skip steps you end up with what happened to Hague. I wonder what would have happened if Howard had been elected Tory leader in 1997.
Kristin @1214, so that signifies an 8th April election then?
re 460 What a massive mistake it was to move Grieve from the shadow home secretary role? Grayling is simply in another much lower division.
Brushing off my dusty ledgers on Lib Dem seats I’m extremely pleased to see much impetus behind a rubbishing of the Lib Dems. Hopefully this will continue to drive the Lib Dem seat totals down and lengthen their odds in some seats.
The current ARSE projection for the yellow peril is 63-65 and rising.
446 - thanks, astateofdenmark. If Blair is reading, I don’t know if he’d like to compare the demographic data for the two sample groups that astate suggests? It might be illuminating - astate’s data on the elderly is a start. One big difference from the cities is ethnic mix - at least in my area, the ethnic minority proportion is gradually increasing but still tiny (about 5%). I don’t know it’s that’s the case in standalone towns like Milton Keynes.
385 “I’m on receive rather than transmit today.”
There are clubs I know of where such a remark would be distinctly….erm, ‘double-edged’, Antifrank.
OK, I’m getting my coat.
463 However, Byrne is seriously hampered by the fact that he’s a loathsome human being and is particularly bad at hiding it.
to be fair, thats not stopped Labour in the past…see Brown.
And it appears the voters have seen through this ploy… with little enthusiasm to engage in the debate.
http://www.politicshome.com/uk/article/5468/politicshome_poll_public_divided_on_change_to_voting_system.html
So I ask again, why oh why has clegg stubbled into this trap?? Its what sets him and cam apart. Every brown/darling budget has had enough elephant traps in them to exint the entire species, yet cam has skillfully avoided every single one of them.
Oops.
One of David Cameron’s favourite candidates in the upcoming general election - Joanne Cash, standing in Westminster North - has unexpectedly pulled out amid reports of internal tensions in the local Conservative party. Cash, dubbed a ‘Cameron cutie’, was expected to have a good chance of winning the newly created seat, which has a projected Labour majority of just over 3,000.
A powerful barrister married to Old Etonian Octavius Black, who was at school with Cameron, Joanne Cash was seen as just the sort of high-profile female candidate the Tory leader was desperate to get into the Commons. She was expected to be fast-tracked through to a ministerial post, possibly housing.
Her resignation is a mystery the Tories seem unwilling to discuss.
http://www.thefirstpost.co.uk/59500,people,news,cameron-cutie-conservative-joanne-cash-quits-general-election-amanda-sayers
430 - It’s also worth noting that the Times poll found that most people are now happier than they were 10 years ago.
458, 462
Just think if Gordo only gets the vote through with LD support.
458 ryans. Lib Dems don’t like FPTP shocker !!
“Lib dems have just given cameron his greatest ammo: vote yellow get brown”
Indeed. The worst thing he could say was “We’ll support it even though we don’t like it.” It allows the Yellow/brown aspect to get a foot in the door that may have been better combated by a more positive explanation of LibDem support.
465: Would Easter just the week before, and the matter of school holidays make that problematics?
Or are labour playing on that, and affluent families being away from home playing into their hands?
469 - Would you mind providing me a list of these clubs.
Erm so I can avoid them.
465 - Chris A @ 1236 makes you wonder, I never actually saw him giving evidence, plus all the other traps still waiting Budget, GDP, TV debates etc
for light relief..
guidofawkes
Devine Unquestioning: For some reason Jim Devine has withdrawn his question to the Prime Mentalist which was first… http://bit.ly/9Jpcqj
475: Is AV what they want though Jack? Or are the lib-dems getting moist at the mention of ‘electoral reform’ and not thinking it though?
Again, AV is not PR.
471 - AV is better for the LDs than FPTP and worse for the Tories. I don’t think you need any more explanation than that.
For most people FPTP is basically disenfranchising as their vote is absolutely pointless.
Plato that’s because AV is demonstrably not fairer than FPTP. We know from Benn this morning that this will be he Labour line. They will bang on at every opportunity how the Tories are against this “fairer” voting system in the knowledge that the stupid interviewer will let them get away with these lies.
Politics Home poll.
On support for the referendum itself:
20% support the referendum in its current form; 29% think there should be no referendum at all; 40% believe that the referendum should have a wider range of options.
Makes you wonder whether people are as committed to the single MP - constiuency link as is often said.
467 Jack W - A courageous projection. A net gain in these circumstances?
407
This is one reason why the Lib Dems nonsensical alternatives to AV won’t work - I didn’t fully understand it but Huhne was prattling on about multi-member constituencies on the radio (when he remember to stop bashing the tories with incorrect statements about them using AV for their leadership election - they don’t) which would presumably be similarly massive to the old Euro ones - and the constituency link would be all but gone in such large disparate areas. My old constituency was Worcestershire and South Warwickshire!
I am amazed we are even giving this AV thing the time of day, it is a nakedly political tactical stunt and has no basis in any conviction or beliefs on Brown’s part. Crass and laughable.
461 I think we need to take special care at this point not to veer off into references to slippers.
Remember you are in charge of the impressionable, if not the young.
474
The shape of things to come…
o/t. the rehabilitation of the hon member for livingston is now on hold.
http://order-order.com/2010/02/09/devine-unquestioning/#comments
STV surely if good enough for NI is good enough for the rest of the UK?
481 Slack. AV is better than FPTP. My prefered option is the AMS, retaining the constituency link. I’m not a fan of STV.
484- I don’t suppose most people are concerned about it, the poll is just further proof that most people have no idea what any of this means. Those weirdos who don’t follow politics, you know, normal people.
490
yes, pick your gunman
though Dave will have to wear a balaclava in his election posters
458, Cameron (or Hague) should also go on the benefits it would give the lefties, hence gerrymandering.
485 Richard N. A small loss on the projected notional of 67.
Tories already in charge?
faisalislam
Interesting … my sources tell me that Hector Sants met George Osborne hours before his resignation … ‘a regular routine meeting’
480 - If the MP for Livingston is finding that his personal life is interfering with his ability to perform his job as MP, he should stand down immediately.
471 ryans - From that article
70% of people think that Brown changed his mind through political calculation; 8% believe he is genuinely convinced of the merits of electoral reform
‘Nuff said.
“For most people FPTP is basically disenfranchising as their vote is absolutely pointless.”
Nonsense. If everyone thought that the results would be utterly unpredictable. Turning out even in “safe” seats is not pointless because they are only safe because people all vote. Thus your argument is self-defeating. Over time seats change, and turning out to vote and reducing a majority will help that process. Also the national vote share is not unimportant.
Are you one of those people who would ban school sports days because they don’t involve prizes for all? It’s the same lame-brained thinking which thinks AV is good because one candidate “gets 50%+ of the support” which is garbage.
489. That’s the second time today Guido has posted this
“He is after all still receiving the Labour whip…”
But Jack W, this election is about brown v cameron. It is imperative for the lib dems that the electorate dont associate a vote for them as a vote for brown. This association will be toxic and theyve just handed that charge to cameron on a plate. The news bulletins will be plastered with how the lib dems helped brown get AV through despite not even liking it.
Those lib-con marginals are suddenly not as comfortable as many may think. Every time clegg says its nonsense to suggest he’d prop up brown, this AV vote will be thrown straight back in his face.
Jon C
You can have STV with small constituencies. Say a 3 member ward for Brighton and Hove.
Of course, you’re right to suspect that the LDs would prefer a system of ridiculously huge constituencies, which results in prizes for just turning up for a lot of candidates. Like the two BNP ones in the Euros.
I’m utterly opposed to any list system, otherwise I’m open minded.
These are the moments ahead of an election a governing party is expected to lose when senior ministers find quite suddenly that they pull the levers and nothing happens. This happened to Callaghan and Major. Former friends and useful contacts politely decline requests from Number 10 and look a little embarrassed. I suspect that trying to find a new head of the FSA might prove difficult.
http://blogs.wsj.com/iainmartin/2010/02/09/sants-resignation-a-headache-for-government-and-opposition/
No recession at the BBC apparently
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/culture/tvandradio/7196332/BBC-executives-expenses-up-by-8-per-cent.html
I don’t believe that PR is better than FPTP, but I can see why others genuinely do. I can’t think of any objective arguments for AV. The timing of this vote combined with Brown’s incredible U turn just make it seem shabby.
Now I need to go and do my pilates.
But before I go, congratulations to those who have not allowed tim to derail the thread about someone who has made it plain she is fully behind the party getting on with the task of get rid of Gordon. Being pregnant does not stop you have differences of opinion or personality with others. Ask TSE.
Gordon wanted today to be about AV. I am content to let him have his day.
Wonder if the possible collapse in support [compared to AR] for a referundum comes from having Gordon’s name [and cynicism] attached.
Laters.
466 Absolutely Mike, Grayling is not even in the reserve team as Home Sec.
What I like most about Grieve is that you’d never guess he was a politician - whenever I see or hear him, I automatically assume he’s an expert commentator.
If the Tories have an awkward portfolio to manage, Grieve is the man for the job, he’s like a fuzzier version of Hammond IMO.
466: “What a massive mistake it was to move Grieve from the shadow home secretary role? Grayling is simply in another much lower division.”
The massive mistake was in allowing David Davis to slip away from the Shadow Cabinet as a result of whatever falling-out he had with Dave.
477: I hadn’t thought of the “GE during Easter holiday fortnight scuppers Tories” ruse, but now you’ve mentioned it, it seems a no-brainer for Labour! Or would that be too brazen even for Gordon?
501 ryans. Nonsense. Most folk barely cast an eye over politics let alone the detail of voting systems.
Further the substantially increased coverage for the Lib Dems to come let alone the debates will ensure the coming election is not a simple Brown/Cameron affair.
507 Grayling may well have been a mistake but Davis would be a bigger one. It’s not a question of falling out. It’s a question of whether someone has their own agenda.
“allowing David Davis to slip away from the Shadow Cabinet ”
The nutter resigned his seat. Short of barricading him in his office, there was nothing anyone sane could do.
509 Jack W
the Lib Dems should have been breathing down Labour’s neck by now.
every comment why Cameron isn’t further ahead also applies to Clegg.
He lacks the killer instinct and is content with third place.
509- while I entirely agree that most people won’t be following a possible change in our voting system that closely, I will be reminding every Con/Lib Dem waverer I canvass about the Lib Dems supporting Labour on this.
“505. I don’t believe that PR is better than FPTP”
How about 2005 - Labour getting a 60-seat majority with just 36% of the popular vote?
I hope the Independent has deep pockets..
Ashcroft to sue Indy..
http://www.pressgazette.co.uk/story.asp?sectioncode=1&storycode=45009&c=1
I too must go now, and try to eliminate from my mind the thought of Sally doing her pilates.
Won’t be easy.
509 Jack W - It’s likely to develop into Conservative Government vs Financial Chaos of Hung Parliament.
In any case, Clegg’s performance has been so poor and self-contradictory that I’m not sure increased exposure is necessarily a good thing for the LibDems; there’s certainly little sign of a coherent strategy emerging out of the confusion of the LibDem conference last October.
508
‘brazen’?
Hah! The ‘Dear Leader’ doesn’t know the meaning of the word.
496 -
Interesting … my sources tell me that Hector Sants met George Osborne hours before his resignation … ‘a regular routine meeting’…………
That was my first thoughts - a deal has been done, jump ship, damage Labour and we’ll put you in a new top role once we break up the fsa. Doesnt take a genius for him to see which side Sants needed to make a deal with.
505. Why I like AV - it makes it easier to vote to try and keep the Tory out. I’ll be voting in a 3 way marginal (Ealing Central & Acton). As it stands, I have no way of knowing whether Lab or Lib Dem will give the Tories the best run for their money, but I have to choose where to put my cross. Under AV, the majority in the seat who are left of centre (IMHO) would be able to ensure the seat doesn’t go blue.
515 - Further to that, and for Mike and posters on here.
Ashcroft, who is also deputy chairman of the Conservative Party and was made a life peer in 2000, is seeking an injunction banning repetition of the allegation at the centre of his legal battle.
514- yes, it delivers stable majority government, even when that government is Labour
520- exactly, shallow partisan reasons, as far as I’m aware it has nothing else to recomend it
508. Now on that subject Bob (Davis), we do agree.
521 - thanks TSE
I wouldn’t dream of it but I suspect some might.
What time is the Lib Dem capitulation? I mean, the vote on AV?
New Thread Up
512 Alanbrooke. Historically the Libs/Libdems perform badly during Labour governments losing heavily in the polls only to recover some during election campaigns.
Presently their 20% platform is a much better position than normal.
I expect them to match or improve on their 2005 poll.
The present 40/30/20 polls give or take a point present all parties with opportunites.
522. If 60% of the voters don’t want a Tory (or Labourite for that matter), why should they have that candidate foisted on them by a minority?
520
At least your honest.
Changing a voting system in a partisan way, with victors then resorting to further changes, and then more changes, etc, is the sort of thing that happens in tinpot Latin American states. Do we really want to go there?
If Labour, with their BFF the LDs, really, really want to change the system then they should:
1 - Manifesto
2 - Legislate immediately Parliament sits.
3 - Invite all parties to discuss.
4 - Try to get a consensus.
5 - If 4 fails, get as broad a consensus as possible, then referendum it.
Otherwise it looks cynical, no matter how well intentioned.
The thing is, Bob, most a-political voters - the very people you are trying to lure into the Conservative camp - rather like the idea of their vote being in some way more “important” or more “powerful”. They are used to run-off voting of one sort or another for TV Talent Shows, and AV will be sold as something similar. What’s not to like?
I agree with you, AV is a rubbish system, but the public like it. They wiul think that they are getting more for their trip to the Polling Station. Wait for Labour and the Lib Dems and the Electoral Reform Society to market it as the “Power Vote” or something equally inane.
127 ….To use the format you use but adding one more important group- public sector employees
As far as the Labour coalition votes………….
–Guardianista = very strongly up- and more so as a resented but tactical vote to keep out the tories
-Public Sector Employees= as their jobs are on the line if Tories are elected, a reluctant and self interested vote by them for Labour
–Ethnic = Where Respect are standing- down (3 MPs IMHO) Elsewhere, with most recent migrants not being too interested in politics- not much of a boost for Labour except for where Fascists are a threat
–Tony’s Tories = down a bit, but “better the devil you know” attitudes becoming more
prominent
–WWC = down - but there is nowhere else for these voters to go other than to abstain
@522:
If you choose to waste your vote, why would you be expected to be treated the same as somebody who hasn’t?
If you’re so astonishingly cretinous you can’t embrace plurality in a simple forced choice, there isn’t much hope for you.
Why should the plurality winner be denied a victory by a ragtag collection of vagues, don’t-knows, don’t-cares and protest voting spoons?