What does this say about Labour’s AV plan?
February 9th, 2010
Is a referendum promise really going to help them?
The above is one of the findings from a PoliticsHome poll on Labour’s plan to legislate for a post general election referendum on the alternative vote system.
Although I’m not totally convinced about the wording of the poll questions I think we can draw something from the findings - voters are highly cynical of such a move thirteen years after it first appeared as a Labour manifesto commitment.
The damning figure, surely, is that only 8% think that Brown is “genuinely convinced” - not good with what appears to be a key government measure only weeks before a general election.
The signs are that tonight’s commons vote will go through but I’m far from convinced that there’ll be any benefit to Brown Central. It just seems so opportunistic it could come out as a negative. It can be portrayed as a last ditch attempt to gerrymander the system.
Maybe I’m doing him an injustice but Brown doesn’t seem to get how things can appear.
It’s said that this might help with a post-election pact with the Lib Dems. Really? Labour reneging on the deal with Paddy Ashdown after the 1997 election is still remembered and in any case the AV is not what the Lib Dems want.
Mike Smithson
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primo?
This is a superb opportunity for the Tories, they HAVE to seize it.
“Vote for us or Labour will try and make your vote meaningless”
“Vote for us because this may be your last chance to kick Labour out”
“Vote for us because Labour will do anything to stay in power, including suddenly fixing the system in their favour ten weeks before an election”
Astonishingly myopic and dangerous stuff from Brown. Just…. desperate.
PR? Bring it on. A UKIP and Conservative coalition would have a clear majority of 54% as in the EP elections. Labour and Lib Dem combined on 33%. Are they mad? Labour and Lib Dem would be wiped out.
AV is tinkering around the edges. Is it PR or not?
Brown has gone and “Jonah’ed” AV now.
Shame - AV is a better system. All votes count, not just the ones for the winner (as in FPTP).
On topic: What was interesting was that the comments when this was discussed on R5L was that it was cynical. I do tend to be wary as you can never be sure that this is particularly balanced, but I have yet to hear to much in the way of this being a positive. I have not seen a procession of Cabinet Ministers proclaiming it, the LibDems seem to be taking a (IMHO stupid) “first step” position. I really doubt the referendum will happen regardless of the next election result, so it’s all a bit pointless…
Vote for Gerry Mander
Vote Labour
2 - Has something changed and Labour is no longer legislating for a referendum?
Cameron nailed it last week.
“13yrs into a labour government, and 90 days from an election, what first attracted you to electoral reform”
was it a free vote?
I’ve said it before, but in the event of a hung parliament the Lib Dems should settle for nothing less than Roy Jenkins’ AV+. Hung parliaments don’t come along very often, and if they miss this golden opportunity to introduce at least an element of proportionality they’ll be kicking themselves for decades (during which time they’ll be back in perpetual opposition, incidentally).
They certainly shouldn’t be influenced by the siren voices telling them that it will somehow look bad if they don’t automatically do a deal with whichever party wins the popular vote (ie. the Tories).
6. We were supposed to have a referendum on Lisbon and then it was just imposed on us.
AV = not very good electoral system!
Repost:
Just read this from the BBC website as breaking news:
Kraft Foods confirms plans to close Cadbury’s Somerdale factory near Bristol
On thread:
it says, quite rightly, that Brown is a conniving little cheat who wants to change the rules of the game because it looks like he’s losing.
The options contain a glaring omission.
“Don’t know” should have been subdivided into:
a) I don’t know
b) He doesn’t know
It just looks terrible. It wouldn’t look as bad if Labour had put this as a policy in their manifesto, but doing it this way just feeds into the narrative that they are scheming, desperate, dishonest, and refusing to face up to the real issues:
On the importance of electoral reform as a national issue:
20% see electoral reform as one of the more important issues facing the country, 74% see electoral reform as one of the less important issues facing the country
8. No I don’t think so
Populus poll - England & Wales only
Con, 42%
Lab, 29%
LD, 20%
4. It’s not just pointless (I doubt it will pass) it’s potentially a huge NEGATIVE for Labour. Voters already resent politicians for being “above the law” and professionally fraudulent etc etc.
Now the government comes along trying to defraud voters of their right to kick the government out, by changing the election law just as they are about to lose an election.
Potential DISASTER.
Labour’s hope must be that this silly silly move dies a death in the Lords and no one notices Out There.
2. “This is a superb opportunity for the Tories, they HAVE to seize it.
‘Vote for us or Labour will try and make your vote meaningless’”
Still doesn’t make sense, Sean. What have the voters got to fear from the matter being put to a referendum?
16 - Labour on course for electoral rogering in England & Wales.
9 - “in the event of a hung parliament the Lib Dems should settle for nothing less than Roy Jenkins’ AV+”
Or what, precisely?
FPT
Oh my life, what a cnut Chris Huhne is. He wants to turn the ENTIRE area of Brighton, Hove AND East Sussex into just one constituency with six representatives.
That’s Brighton. Hove. Whole of East Sussex. One constituency.
This of course has nothing to do with the LDs ‘losing there’ and wanting to gerrymander the system so that get a consolation prize in sixth place.
The following link has the LD proposal in all its self-serving and astonishingly blatant partiality:
http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm200910/cmbills/004/amend/pbc0040902m.882-888.html
18, depends whether they allow postal voting. And the registers go missing. And everybody is really surprised that 132% of Britons want AV.
18. That is technically right, but (and I am vastly less anti labour than most on here) in the real world the voters aren’t going to worry too much about the nuances of different electoral systems.
The narrative Labour have had 13 years to deal with this, and are trying to change systems (I appreciate in reality call a referendum, but to the average voter it will look like change systems) to save their skins is a very easy Tory goal. It all looks very cynical and their is plenty of capital to be made here.
16 - isn’t that identical to the ICM one the other day ?
5. The Lib Dems came 4th in the only PR election we have (European Parliament) with 15% of the vote. Why will it be such an advantage to Lib Dems to have proportional representation?
They will be finished by it.
Their only rationale is to be third force between the other two main parties. That middle ground idea would be ended and their voters would spread out into Greens,UKIP and so on.
It is a farce this notion that Lib Dems will benefit from PR. The gainers will be UKIP and the Conservatives.
AV of course is not PR.
6. Just try and see this through the eyes of the average voter, Neil. Just make the effort. Most voters don’t care or understand about legislative programmes blah blah. Most voters are far too sensible. They will see this simple process for what it is.
1. The Government is about to lose the election
2. The Government therefore and suddenly decides, after 12 years in office, to change the electoral system, in a way that might just let them hang on to power
That’s all that people will glean from this. It ain’t good for Brown.
18. Do you really believe that Brown would trust this to the electorate?
I don’t. He would use this vote in the next parliament as justification to deny the electorate a referendum (parliamentary mandate or some such bollocks) and just railroad the changes through just like he and Blair did with Lisbon.
They use the pretense of referenda to gain votes they would otherwise lose at General Elections and conveniently dismiss the referendum once they are back in power…..
Labour are lying lowlife scum.
9 James K - You have said that before, but it is wrong. In the event of a Hung Parliament, there will be very serious and urgent issues to address, most notably how to persuade anyone to finance our deficit. Voting ‘reform’ will not be one of those urgent issues, and any party which attempted to use the financial crisis as a bargaining counter to pursue its own little agenda on this issue - already seen as not very important by voters even in the current relatively benign circumstances - would be wiped out in the ensuing election.
Seth.(FPT) I imagine research has shown that the Tory weakness is that voters think DC is a PR man who’ll say whatever is required to get elected. So it’s reasonable that their first poster should push that point. It’s weakness-like the Cameron poster-is that it answers the brief crudely and voters will say ‘they would say that wouldn’t they?’
Saatchi (if it’s them) are a very smart agency and their house style are campaigns with legs. Think Castlemaine. I doubt this is intended to do anymore than show their direction of travel.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mtwkDGlpWJk
20. “Or what, precisely?”
Don’t understand the question, Aaron. It’s just my free advice for the Lib Dems - I think it makes sense from their own interests (AV might possibly give them a few extra seats but it will still freeze them out of government more or less forever).
More to the point, as a supporter of PR, I think it would be in the best interests of everyone if the Lib Dems hold out for nothing less than AV+. Some people think AV is a stepping-stone to proper electoral reform. They’re wrong. Look at Australia.
As I said on the PT
Cameron took the flak over Lisbon although the Conservatives voted against it, it’s a gift associating Labour and the LiBDems voting for a gerrynmandering referendum when they both broke their promises on Lisbon. They’ll live to regret it at the ballot box I’m sure. Easy to bring up o the doorstep.
by Kristin February 9th, 2010 at 5:47 pm
It won’t benefit LibDem,s either.
Tapestry 3.
I fail to see your maths working.
Lib Dem = 18 - 20%
Lab = 29 - 31%
Combined about 50%
Tory = 39 - 41%
UKIP = 4% tops
Combined 44%
I like AV but would rather see FPTP continue to keep local representation than go to STV of full PR. However it can’t be as pro tory as you seem to believe.
18. I’ve made my point several times now, if you are too f*cking stupid to get it, so be it. Go and have a shortcake neep Bucky or whatever it is you do.
26 - I completely disagree with the proposal. But, as usual, you are going way over the top about it. It’s going to be put to a referendum. You used to love referendums. Where did it all go wrong between you and referendums?
I’m incredulous at these LD proposals. They need wider dissemination.
They want the london boroughs of Lambeth, Southwark and Wandsworth to be one massive constituency.
They want Milton Keynes and the entire county of Buckinghamshire combined into one massive constituency.
Lib Dem areas of strength in Herefordshire and the Highlands will not be combined though. Such blatant partiality should be treated with nothing more than contempt.
Oh Lincolnshire, big rural area. Not many Lib Dems. You guessed it, one massive constituency so that the LDs get the also rans prize.
I’ve occassionly expressed my agnosticism to STV, but if this is what it means, that fck right off as well.
As I said, it has Huhne’s name on it, so I shouldn’t be surprised.
Populus (whole UK) before spiral of silence adjustment:
Con 40.5%
Lab 28.7%
Con lead 11.8%
England & Wales only Con lead before spiral of silence adjustment will be 15%.
Equally bad, if not more so for the LibDems, I think. They have certainly backed the worng horse in this one, as the poll above shows. A lot of people have still not forgiven them for their part in denying us the referundum we had been promised on the Lisbon Treaty.
18 The problem for Labour is that their only motivation for this piece of legislation is that they think it will help them electorally (although I’m not sure that it would do, in practice). At any rate, that’s how the public sees it.
That’s quite a hard sell, when you’re popular. It’s an impossible sell, when you’re unpopular.
From Populus (Table 2) and if I am reading this correctly:
14% of LD voters and 14% of Labour voters from 2005 are planning on voting Tory. The retention rate for the LDs is 76% and Labour 70%. In comparison Labour were retaining 66% when in September, Populus were reporting 41-27-18.
It says that the voters have seen through yet another of Brown’s stunts. He must be losing his touch. After the budgets it generally took 24-48 hours before most people saw through them.
I’m deeply disappointed that the LDs are going to vote in favour. If we get AV then that’s it- no STV ever.
28. Richard, there is nothing more urgent than fixing Britain’s broken political system, and a hung parliament could well be the Lib Dems’ last chance for decades to do anything about it. They can’t choose when these opportunities arises, and they have to seize them when they do - indeed, it would be irresponsible in respect of the long-term interests of the whole country if they did not.
TomHarris4MP
AV an antidote to corruption? I just asked Jack Straw if he attributed Italy’s “spotless” reputation to its having PR.
re 9 James no thank you. We don’t want to touch list MPs with a barge pole. I’m amazed that Brown hasn’t brought it up, it would enable him to pack the party with his cronies.
24 Kristin
ICM combine Scotland and the North of England, so the English poll can’t be disaggregated.
40 - “there is nothing more urgent than fixing Britain’s broken political system”
This suggests that you have no grasp of the financial problems we have.
34 - The Lib Dems are really must think the electorate are a bunch of numpties to fall for that one
re 3 Tapestry AV is categorically, 100% positively NOT PR.
24 Before the spiral of silence adjustment, this poll is identical to ICM’s (in terms of the respective support for Conservative and Labour).
29 - Roger: “I imagine research has shown that the Tory weakness” - so you guessed? You are projecting your prejudices onto everyone. We are guilty of doing that, but we should all recognise it…
This absurdly short-sighted Labour mistake will also fire up everyone who hates Labour. From Tory activists to suspicious floaters.
It’s just a whacking own goal. I notice no lefties are on here actually trying to defend this absurdity.
Apologies if previously posted. Populus poll detail:
http://populuslimited.com/uploads/download_pdf-070210-The-Times-The-Times-Poll—February-2010.pdf
It strikes me that AV results in a net negative for Brown in this as the the number of people that would vote against the Tories on the grounds that they were against changing the system would seem to be likely less than the total number of people who have a cynical view of Brown over this.
Tom Harris quite rightly brought up not having 2 elections run under different systems on the same day.. Gould Report.
He’s my MP, at least he’s not a patsy.
29. But, Rog, they road tested Cam the Chameleon over two years ago and it was a total failure. What’s different about this campaign?
It’s also technically inept. The highlighting is in Cameron’s favour and it won’t be up on enough sites for anyone who counts - voters in marginals - to see it.
This isn’t so much a symptom of people’s views on AV or Gordon Brown, as the general tendency to be cynical about any political stance by anyone. Any question that starts, “Has [politician]geuninely…” is going to get the answer no, regardless of the individual or the subject.
FPT
Just done a surevey for ARPO - voting intention + leaders, my views on how representative Parliament is, plus some stuff about supermarkets giving 1% of their alcohol sales to charity.
I would note that I live in a marginal (Birmingham Hall Green), but I’ve been asked on voting intention ARPO surveys before, so it only might be the marginal survey.
40 James - ‘Nothing more urgent’? I’m guessing you’ve never lived through a full-scale financial crisis such as we had in the 70s, or even the ERM crisis. Believe me, the electorate won’t be in the least bit interested in student-style debates about fiddling around with the electoral system.
43 oldnat - thanks.
52 - I quite like Tom Harris.
Here’s one. Can a supporter of the LD nonsense explain to me why the LD seat of Argyll and Bute remains a tiny one member constituency, but the absolutely huge london boroughs of Croydon and Bromley are combined?
Apart from the lack of LDs in the latter and the former being a LD seat, I can’t think of any.
The question being, what if neither major party is prepared to concede this?
Do the Lib Dems vote down either party’s attempts to pass a Queen’s speech, ensuring a second G.E. - which
(a) would be disproportionately unaffordable for them;
(b) they could be blamed for instigating over an arcane issue and;
(c) might well produce a majority government, thus re-limiting their influence.
As Richard says @ 28, they’d be better off convincing voters they understand what the important immediate issues are (whatever your long-term views on AV+ or STV).
44. “This suggests that you have no grasp of the financial problems we have.”
That comment suggests to me that you have no appreciation of how the broken political system affects absolutely every aspect of government policy and decision-making.
30. As Lloyd George said, “There is nothing more dangerous than to leap a chasm in two jumps”
7. If you ever watch Election Night 1983 there’s a very funny moment when Shirley Williams was crying about the voting system after losing her seat. They then went back to the studio where Eric Varley made the acid remark, “I sat in cabinet with Shirley for 5 years and I never once heard her complain about the voting system!”
I bet she wasn’t complaining about FPTP in February 1974!!
Some of the Tories here are off on one over this. Cameron’s best practical option here is to shrug, say “I disagree with it as a policy and as a use of public money”, and quietly repeal if and when he wins a majority.
There is no campaigning capital to be made. Lib Dems know from experience that the words “electoral reform” are political mogadon and in any event people are pretty evenly divided on whether they like this particular change (to the extent they understand it and/or give a toss).
It only becomes and issue if the Tories lack a majority, in which case it’s harder for Cameron to pat Clegg on the head and say PR is all very nice but not an administrative priority in these tough times. And indeed, that’s precisely why Brown’s done it - to poison any potential coalition talks between Tories and Lib Dems.
It does seem to me to be very cynical indeed and to link it into the expenses scandal is to say the least questionable.
However on the issue itself I am in favour of FPTP but I believe that its up to the voters to decide what the system should be. As a Conservative I am very much for localism and believe that if it was right to have a pre ratification Lisbon Treaty referendum then surely it must be just as right to let the voters decide this matter. However to ask for a choice between FPTP and AV is no real choice at all (hence my deep cynicism of Brown) but rather the choice should be between FPTP and STV , the latter being proportional.
54 Nice try, Nick.
44 Neil - Not often we agree! See my 56.
56. Yes, Richard, I fully understand the narrative you’re trying to get to take root here. The Lib Dems might even fall for it, I don’t know, but they’ll regret it for the rest of their political lives if they do.
59. Is this the tiny Argyll and Bute seat that covers over 10% of Scotland?
68 - IIRC, MPs represent people, not acres
48. Nick. No one-not even Cameron-spends hundreds of thousands on a poster without a brief. And that brief will be in answer to research. If that poster wasn’t answering the brief ‘Cameron’s weakness is…’ then what question do you think it was answering?
“I imagine research has shown that the Tory weakness is that voters think DC is a PR man who’ll say whatever is required to get elected.”
Ok. So, next step is to answer the following - how is not offering Labour’s guarantee over cancer specialists the opposite of being committed to the NHS?
56. PS. I most certainly did live through the Black Wednesday debacle. I’m not a student and when I was one I wasn’t remotely interested in tedious student politics.
54 - Nick, I often try to understand things from your point of view and generally listen to what you have to say … but … come on! People are cyncial about this because it is a deeply cynical ploy. Words fail completely fail me. And to think that I used to think that even Gordon Brown wouldnt try something like this.
Oooh look, Chris Huhne wants to keep Powys to just a two member constituency. Small constituencies for Lib Dems, big ones for the rest of us.
Agee with SeanT that the deathbed conversion doesn’t convince.
Though I would actually quite like AV. Now we know its enough to buy off the Lib Dems with I’d quite like to see it as part of the bigger reform agenda the Conservatives offer. Fewer MPs larger constituencies and AV.
64. Massive Hairy Bollocks. This is a huge own goal from Labour, and you know it, properly exploited by the Tories it should be worth a couple of polling points.
Government Tries To Fix Election.
It’s not a good headline, is it? I’m sure the Tories in Supreme Allied Command are already working out ways to use this against Der Bunker.
PS. The Castlemaine I linked to in post 29 is seriously funny though probably not PC enough for today’s market for several reasons.
54 - I thought it was your normal position that there was a bias to the middle? There certainly isn’t here.
68
Does Scotland vote by landmass ? Only it seems a bit unfair on Glasgow.
61 - I don’t want to get in the middle of a fight, but there is a difference between how the broken political system affects absolutely every aspect of government policy and decision-making , which is important I grant you, and the potential consequences of the financial crisis which may soon arrive. Think bank runs, rolling power blackouts, getting instructions on how to make 1 room of the house warm because your heating will be off, TV stations going off the air at 10pm to save power, petrol rationing, food shortages etc.
If you think I’m being unduly extreme, that all happened the last time we went though a situation nowhere near as bad as the one the UK is currently facing.
61 - It’s like you dont even want to understand how the country is run.
I don’t think Brown cares whether the Bill becomes law, nice bonus if it does but it is not the primary aim.
The intention, I think, is to create yet another dividing line. Labour will now be saying, “We recognise the need to reform our politics, but look the nasty Tories vote against reform” I expect this to be a major attack line.
Instructions are I suspect going out to counter the Conservative, “He is just trying to gerrymander the system” with the question, “Labour, and the Lib-Dems, simply want to give the people a say on reforming Parliament after the next election. Why are you, alone, against giving the voters a chance to state their views”.
As I said on the previous thread Cameron should promise a Royal Commission on the constitutional settlement to include equal devolution of powers, the future role of the Westminster parliament, a final settlement of the Lords issue and voting methods. As long as there was a concomitant commitment to submit the Commission’s recommendations to a referendum, everyone would win - apart from Dr. Brown.
http://www.metro.co.uk/news/812370-harriet-harman-to-win-rear-of-the-year
Irony is not dead.
72 James - I did say ’student-style’!
But if you think back to Black Wednesday, and try to imagine what the effect would have been if Shirley Williams had popped up on the TV and started going on about how this was an opportunity for electoral reform, I think you’ll get an impression of what I’m getting at.
Dominic Grieve suggests Jack Straw should have read his son’s blog…
42 per cent would vote to keep the current system, 37 per cent would vote for AV, and 19 per cent don’t know.
http://www.leftfootforward.org/2010/02/anticipating-the-electoral-reform-vote/
OGH - “It can be portrayed as a last ditch attempt to gerrymander the system.”
Indeed, how can it be ‘portrayed’ in any other way..?
How will AV fix the broken political system? Does AV prevent expenses fraud?
Interesting little finding in the Populus details. Most people in all parties trust their own MP not to have troughed, by a modest margin. The except is the don’t know/refused group, who don’t, by a significant margin. It seems reasonable to assume an interaction - some people are deeply anti-politics so they don’t vote and they think the worst; others think the worst and are reluctant to vote for that reason. Their reaciton is not to vote for someone else but not to vote at all.
59/74 - So what you’re saying we really need is some sort of reform to ensure that votes carry approximately equal weight regardless of where the voter lives?
In seriousness, you can’t genuinely argue that the current electoral system favours the Lib Dems by pointing to the one element (the fact they do well in sparsely populated rural communities) while ignoring ALL the other elements which so plainly don’t.
You might reasonably try to argue that the electoral system shouldn’t be fair to the Lib Dems - if they want to do better, they should concentrate their vote more etc. But trying to claim the system helps them is pretty moronic.
69,79.
There is a question of practicality in terms of acreage.
Strangely Birmingham is just the wrong size for Chris Huhne to gerrymander completely, so it is divided into two 4-member constituencies.
Yet London, Leeds, Glasgow, Merseyside and even Lincolnshire have massive constituencies dumped on them if the LDs get their way. This isn’t just gerrymandering, this is what the LDs have wet dreams about: naked power grabs through the manipulation of the political system at a time of crisis.
My contempt for them grows daily. Do they realise they’ll be told where to go if they try to turn Glasgow and Lincolnshire into one massive EU ‘prizes for everyone’ election?
90 - really?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/1569489/Australian-MP-in-fight-for-biggest-constituency.html
83. I think that is a very good photo they have got of Harman’s rear…..
74 - Arent you getting hugely over-excited by something that has no chance of being implemented?
These AV proposals are a massive own-goal for Labour. They just come across as a spiteful attempt to hit the Tories, and most people will see them as such.
Labour candidates at the next election may just as well apply to join the Amalgamated Union of Dockside Hookers right now!
That was quick…
http://iaindale.blogspot.com/2010/02/labour-launches-new-ad-campaign-er.html
87 - I guess the argument is that AV disadvantages polarising MPs, including those who are fortunate enough to represent a party which is locally in favour but who are unsavoury characters.
So those who hold their nose and vote for a stinker because he is from their favoured party are overwhelmed by a coalition of people who just think he’s a stinker (so he picks up none of the second choices his cleaner neighbour would). Think of the numerous rotten MPs who will fall back but still sneak in with 40% next time.
90
and the impracticality is what ? People report to a local polling station to vote.
re 21 ASOD those proposed STV constituencies seem very sensible to me as counties are a natural basis for them. Not too keen that there are some 2 member constituencies, but I suppose you have to have some in sparsely populated areas.
And on the 2005 figures in the Brighton and East Sussex constituency you’d probably have had elected 2 Tories, 2 LDs, 1 Labour with the last seat a toss-up between the Tories and Labour.
No doubt you’ll be telling that it’s much fairer now with Labour winning 3 of these 6 seats despite only getting 23% of the vote. Elbridge Gerry would be proud of you.
“82. “We recognise the need to reform our politics, but look the nasty Tories vote against reform” I expect this to be a major attack line from Labour”.
To which, of course, the Tory retort will be, Well how come you didn’t do this in the last thirteen years since you first promised to do it, and you’ve waited until you are two months away from defeat at an election before suddenly deciding to change the electoral system?
This is unanswerable. The people polled above are correct. It is the most cynical political maneuver, which cannot be gussied up as some progressive atruistic reform, no matter how much Labour try.
Spectacular Fail.
94 Neil - Could be quite good anti-LibDem ammo on the doorstep, nonetheless.
Also on the poster
http://blogs.wsj.com/iainmartin/2010/02/09/labour-not-scared-of-negative-campaigning/?mod=rss_WSJBlog
97 - Yeah, it’s a terrible argument.
101 - I thought we agreed that voters could not give a crap about electoral systems? I think that applies even more to ones that will never be implemented.
101 - I expect the voters will be as enthused about lack of integrity in Lib Dem proposals for electoral reform as they will be about Lord Ashcroft’s tax status.
96 Scott - And better than the original!
76 - This won’t feature as a serious part of the Tory campaign, Sean. We’ll have to agree to disagree on whether it’s sensible, but I’m totally confident that’s the way it will be.
94. I’m getting excited because I see this as a major wrong move by Labour, at a very crucial moment.
I don’t believe this bill will pass through the Lords. I do believe this silly stupid dumb cynical typically Gordonian move has the potential to damage the government.
And yes, that possibility stimulates me, I confess. But you knew that.
100 - I suppose it all comes down to who one thinks is a cannier political operator. Those who have won three general elections on the trot (though who seem to have lost their way recently) or a sex memoirist (though one who has taken a greater interest in politics over the past few years).
94
Key point - there is no chance of this becoming law. If the LibDems had any nouse, they’d abstain and make a point how they would vote for something real, not some cynical move by Brown that doesn’t really commit him to anything.
But that would mean attacking Labour, and we all know that’s not going to happen.
96 - I obviously don’t have a refined political sense of humour, because this is as dire as the spoof Tory ads that tim was linking to this morning.
tories should start warning the coountry: ‘never mind 5 more years of brown, under AV we’ll have 15 more years of brown… dont let him or clegg steal your vote. Vote to keep your vote. Vote tory’
104 antifrank - What I meant was the huge constituencies: ‘Do you know that the LibDems want to merge Little Nodding under Wold into the same constituency as Chavknife NewTown’?
107 - I was talking about astateofdenmark’s reaction to the Lib Dem proposals. I dont think you actually have a setting lower than over-excited!
Watching Brown and all his cunning plans which always backfire, reminds me of Abba Eban’s comment about Yassir Arafat:
“He never misses an opportunity to miss an opportunity”
70 - Roger I don’t doubt they asked a question. I suspect it was how can we shore-up our core-vote or how can we get back what has been our traditional strength area? But honestly do you think this message works? I used to have clients who were insistent on putting 3 or 4 messages in a 17×9 and you ended up with a failing ad. They have also put on their opponents position, which is a real strength for Cameron - it’s mad. You don’t run an advert saying “Our opposition makes tasty cola, but really it’s just sugar and not really that good for you.”
I agree that there is doubt about change (in troubled times, there will always be some doubts about the change) but why are they not ramming home a don’t risk the recovery message? To my mind, it is the one that may resonate (watch Nick Robinson’s report from Cardiff last night).
106. Cameron has already used this Labour gerrymandering to very telling effect in PMQs.
If the issue gains public salience it could be very useful for the Tories.
And now I must go and watch Dexter, Series Two, part 10. A good series, not quite Deadwood or the Sopranos, but good.
kapkap
112 - That is a far more fruitful line of enquiry for the Tories. Given that some residents of Sutton Coldfield are still fuming about being given a Birmingham postcode and lumped in with the West Midlands in the 1974 local government reorganisation, I can well imagine how that could swing quite a lot of votes.
re 59 ASOD I thought that would have been obvious to anyone, but if you really need it spelling out.
Argyll & Bute 6909 sq km
Croydon & Bromley 237 sq km
Anyway it would be for the Boundary commissions to allocate the seats and sizes of the constituencies in any STV election.
Strange proposals from the LDs - and I agree with those above who have suggested that they are self-serving.
I’m surprised that no one has suggested that MPs from the component parts of the UK don’t need to be elected by the same method, unless devolution is symmetrical.
For UK elections Scotland, Wales and NI don’t need any more MPs than population would determine. Since domestic policy is determined in our own Parliament/Assemblies the constituency link at UK level is relatively unimportant.
Scots MPs should only be involved in the reserved powers, and for matters such as Defence, Foreign affairs, macro-economics etc, and these don’t need a close geographical link. There is no reason why Scots MPs can’t be voted for in multi-member constituencies covering large populations/geographical areas. There is no reason why the Northern Isles can’t be combined with the Western Isles and/or parts of the Highlands for voting purposes.
72: James Kelly @ 18:23
James, Black Wednesday was not a major crisis. It was in fact the liberation from a harmful straight-jacket (one that Dr. Brown wanted us to wear I might add).
No, for nasty events caused by politicians’ incompetence that seriously affected how everyone lived you have to go back to the 70s. Can you imagine having electricity not available except on certain days of the week?
FPT “411 For the record, Hazel Blears objectively is a much more promising leader of the Labour party (leaving expenses out of the equation) than either Miliband. That both tim and you dismiss her out of hand is very revealing.”
Thing is factions, however loosely defined. Blears would have been about 20th in the faction she’s vaguely associated with behind Miliband1, Purnell, Clarke, Milburn, Byers and maybe a dozen others - and that was before resigning the day before an election.
“Which female Labour politicians do you see as serious contenders?”
Harperson might have been but i think after the Obamassiah’s win the people who’d vote for her will want someone black.
Cooper as a face-mask for the Mongolian Stormtrooper faction is the only likely contender i can think of at the mo.
116, not watched the others you mention, but I’m also a Dexter fan. Not sure if there’ll be a series 3, the lead actor has cancer, I believe.
Anyone have an ETA for the vote?
Could Brown be thinking that this will give him a leg up in the marginals.
Just heard the radio four news describe the first past the post system as ‘our age old system’.
Also wondered how much pressure the EU is putting on us to change, are there any other EU members with our old fashioned system.
And another Gordon-off, Gordon-on poster:
http://www.redragonline.com/2010/02/browned-off-with-labour.html
100 - You are getting just a little hysterical on this one. Very soon this will disappear into a little hole and will be forgotten about, never to reappear once the election is over and D. Cameron is safely ensconsed in Number 10. The last thing the Tories really want to do is spend their time defending FPTP, which is inevitably what they will have to do if they spend their time banging on about opposing a referendum on electoral reform.
Hopefully, though, this commitment to a change in the electoral system will survive Brown’s typically leaden-footed line drawing and will become established Labour policy whent he party is in opposition. At some stage, we are going to need to have a serious debate about how to reverse a situaiotn in which a large proportion of the electorate is disenfranchised to all intents and purposes.
422. Sky said about 8 o clock, dunno how accurate that forecast is.
123, age old… like the monarchy, or the British sense of fair play? Something being ancient can be a sign of its strength through the ages. Labour’s tinkering with the constitution has been a failure almost every time.
Last one should have been to Morris Dancer at 424.
Well I began today wondering :
“WHY ARE THE LDs NOT DOING BETTER ?
I have been thinking about this overnight following the last discussion on ICM. There is a tendancy to focus on the Con\Lab fight,but surely one of the questions should be why aren’t the LDs on 30% instead of Labour ?
They should have everything in their favour:
- hugely unpopular PM
- worst recession since whenever
- uncontaminated brand
- national party
- home for the dissatisfied
I can’t answer it - any ideas ?”
I couldn’t see why they weren’t breathing down Labour’s neck to push them for second place in this election.
As the evening comes in I now know - poor leadership, no strategy, no ambition.
The poster who pointed out just how badly the LDs are missing Charles Kennedy had it spot on. Political nouse, a likeable personality but an idea of where he wanted to take the LDs.
I hate to say but with Huhne and Clegg the LDs will drift around the political ocean and miss the best chance for a generation to become a real voice in UK politics.
El lider no tiene cojones.
122. There’s already been five series:
http://tinyurl.com/2z2lcj
Which is jolly good, as I like it a lot. And apparently the excellent lead actor is fighting his cancer successfully - best of British luck to him - and should be back for series 6.
He just got an Emmy, indeed.
re 123 BS I’d hardly describe a system of voting devised in 1821 (as STV was) new-fangled.
Right or wrong, doing it weeks before a general election when Brown’s expected to lose looks extremely rum. It confirms people’s worst expectations about Brown, and reminds us that the man is all tactics, no strategy.
And if Labour’s obedient little yellow pets go along with this transparently stupid bit of inept politicking, it shows us once and for all what soulless little political weasels the Lib Dems are.
128, cheers Mr. budgie
I agree this is a bad move by Labour - but the Lib Dems’ support of it is even crazier.
46. I agree. AV is not PR.
But if voting fairness is the topic, PR surely has to be on the agenda for discussion…
until, that is, both Labour and Lib Dem realise they would both be history under PR. So they try to fiddle the system for advantage another way this time instead - AV.
The Lib Dems require FPTP to give them a raison d’etre - the alleged voice of moderation between two extremes suitable for university sandal-wearing bearded types, who cannot take sides in a two-sided debate without losing marks for lack of objectivity.
Once FPTP is gone, the Lib Dems become unnecessary.
Their voters will shop direct from purpose built political superstores like the Greens, and won’t require an intermediate cobbled together dithering service.
132, oh, I feel like a fool now!
I hope series 3 arrives here soon then.
132. My Baaaaad. He got a Golden Globe, and they’ve aired four series, and they have commissioned and are filming a fifth.
127. SO. “Hopefully, though, this commitment to a change in the electoral system will survive Brown’s typically leaden-footed line drawing and will become established Labour policy whent he party is in opposition.”
The problem for Labour is that it was in previous manifesto, and when they were returned with a huge majority they forgot.
Plus ca change…
Got any names for that 8%?
I’m not sure they’re safe on the streets.
There will be sons of the ex-presidents of Nigeria queuing up for bank details
Doh!
Lab MEP Mary Honeyball: “AV is the most important policy demanding immediate action” More important than the economy? http://bit.ly/9TpOkD
123. Hazel Blears? She’s tiny! Like a little squeaky toy! The only worse candidate I can think of is Charles Clarke, he has a face like the elephant’s head and the elephant’s bum combined into one. I think the only reason Gordon Brown is in office today is because ditching him would have pleased Charles Clarke, and nobody wanted that to happen.
I wonder why Cooper isn’t more highly rated–is it just that she’s a nasty person? I can’t believe that she swore some sort of blood oath to Ed Balls never to challenge his mighty ambitions, especially as she has such a safe seat.
The thing with AV and that is.
Some voters can’t even put a simple X in the box, imagine trying to fill out an AV ballot with boxes all over the joint.
Is it too much to hope that we won’t be inundated with unfunny versions of Labour’s new ad?
I agree with Neil to a point. This Huhne proposal will never happen. Voters don’t care about the LDs or voting systems. But if it was ever put to the test and toenails goes on the news to tell the good residents of Glasgow, Liverpool, Leeds, Lincolnshire, Sussex that they would now be one massive constituency the reaction would probably be bafflement. What idiot would want such a thing?
Another gem from the prick Huhne’s amendment: The tiny constituencies, such as the western isles, stay tiny. The party of ‘fair votes’ quite enjoys the disparities that rewards their own.
Chris A
Quit the whining. The size of Argyll is neither here nor there. Have you ever drove from Bromley to Croydon? Ever walked up one of the long residential roads in Hayes? Do you know how long these things take? That time factor is a greater practical impediment to campaigning than protecting LD incumbancy.
144, it’d be a pain in the arse to count as well.
115. Nick. The decision the advertisers have made is to go for a negative campaign. ‘Don’t risk the Tories spoiling it’ isn’t that. It’s also not punchy enough as an idea when you’re 10 points behind.
This poster though crude has two simple and quite hard hitting messages 1, Cameron is two faced and will say anything to get elected. 2. Labour are making a new pledge to cancer patients-one that the Tories wouldn’t support. Classic reinforcement of stereotype and for a first effort I’d say more effective than Cameron’s.
Field raises a good point about the values of the first vote being the same as someones second vote. Maybe second and third votes should be weighted as pollsters do for those saying 9/10; 8/10; 7/10 likely to vote?
Someone should be embarrassed here, but I don’t think it’s the Tories:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/robertpeston/2010/02/why_sants_exit_is_embarrassing.html
145 - Unfortunately, it appears so.
Frank Field voicing the idea that open primaries would solve the “safe seat” problem at lower cost that changing the entire voting system. LiB Dems not impressed (of course).
125. No, the only country vaguely in Europe (but not of course in the EU) that uses FPTP is Azerbaijan…
144 lauranceallen
While we had some confusion in 2007 when 3 different voting systems were being used on the same day, voters in Scottish local by-elections (which are AV) have had no problem at all with voting by assigning preferences.
That you are contemptuous of others makes it all the more delightful when you make a spectacularly stupid comment yourself.
148. Sorry Roger, I am struggling to see how “Don’t vote Tory or you’ll die of cancer” is a winning ad.
“two simple and quite hard hitting messages”
1. How is not committing to a guarantee by Labour over one treatment not being committed to the NHS?
2. DO you not think that people will roll their eyes at yet another Labour guarantee that isn’t?
The point that I’m trying to get across is that Brown and Clegg are running scared from PR because they now realise they would be mangled by it.
They’re both losers at FPTP. They are both losers under PR. In desperation they are trying to wangle another new system. The point that they’ve dropped PR needs mentioning.
We’ve got UKIP to thank for defeating PR, by demonstrating in the EP elections how Labour and Lib Dem come 3rd and 4th with PR, with 33% of the vote between them.
New Tory Poster
http://twitpic.com/129d6m
henrymacrory
Conservatives launch poster highlighting Brown’s plan to impose new £20,000 death tax http://twitpic.com/129d6m
The Lib-Dems, by hooking up with the ghastly Brown in his final days in office, are setting back the cause of proper electoral reform by 20 years, IMO.
101: Chris A @ 18:33
Thanks for a very thought provoking post. When I first read of the idea of a single East Sussex constituency my immediate reaction was that it was a mad idea. However, when you posted to show the effects I started to think.
Maybe this STV lark might be the best way forward, within a more integrated and powerful EU obviously.
158, won’t load for me.
400 Cadbury jobs going..
Hundreds of Cadbury workers at a factory that the new owner Kraft promised to keep open face losing their jobs.
The Somerdale plant at Keynsham, near Bristol, will in effect shut down with the loss of 400 jobs, although it may remain open with a skeleton staff, The Times has learnt.
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/consumer_goods/article7019957.ece
131 Alanbrooke - spot on.
“As the evening comes in I now know - poor leadership, no strategy, no ambition.”
If the LDs had the killer instinct they’d be massively ahead. Labour are on the ropes and what do they do - side with their, pathetic vote grubbing on AV
Honestly, I expect history to judge them harshly and they deserve it.
As for “age old” FPTP, the House of Commons has only been uniformly elected by this system since 1950…
For 650 years the Commons was elected using the double-member system (anyone remember Old Sarum?)
Between 1867 and 1885 the cities used the limited vote in three-member constituencies, and between 1918 and 1945 the Universities used STV to elect their members.
Try this one
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/thetorydiary/2010/02/tory-poster-targets-labours-secret-plan-to-introduce-20000-death-tax.html
160, poor Nick Clegg. Once Casanova, able to land any girl he might care to offer a rocket sandwich and some mineral water, now reduced to climbing into bed with Gordon Brown.
158, spectacular poster and to top it off, a gravestone with a red labour rose on it.
So basically Browns want to kill you off with crappy service then take £20,000 from you for the privilege when you do kick the bucket.
158 Kristin
As usual, I get confused when England only and UK issues are intermingled by the UK parties.
Since this is designed to pay for free personal care in England, presumably it will apply to England only. Surely even Brown can’t be planning to take money from the estates of people dying in Scotland, Wales or NI to pay for the elderly in England?
165, I think that’s excellent. If the IHT move is popular, Labour’s plan to screw the dead (which I suppose is political necrophilia) will be damaging to their prospects.
153. And? So because europe do it we should to? By that logic we’d have executed our royal family AND had them being dictatorial rulers AND had a fascist government or two by now.
laurancallen it might surprise you to know that an AV ballot paper will look fairly indistinguishable from a FPTP one.
170. Sorry, in the last couple of hundred years.
166: Morris Dancer @ 19:09
167 - which of course, after pre announcing in the Guardian they are now denying
who’s wobbling now ?
166. Morris D
What do you mean ‘climbing into bed’? It’s more like a furtive bit of fumbling in a darkened alley next to a stinking dumpster….
168. From the Guardian
Does the policy re cancer treament etc just apply to England? If so, how does any tax proposal (presumably UK wide?) apply?
The cancer guarantee just applies to England. The DoH could not tell me what Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland are doing, but they are not so target-fixated. And the national care service (which relates to the tax proposal) is also an English initiative, although the green paper apparently talks about parallel initiatives in the devolved authorities
162 Kristin
I’m surprised at how fast Kraft have told Mandy to stick it. I thought they’d hang back till the election. What’s the odds for Labour in West Mids and Bristol ?
http://www.birminghampost.net/birmingham-business/birmingham-business-news/businesslatest/2010/02/09/kraft-foods-accused-of-breaking-promises-over-cadbury-factory-65233-25798773/
171. Yes, it’s preposterous to suggest that millions of people who play the lottery every week would balk at voting 1,2,3 once every five years…
It’s amusing to see the opponents make fools of themselves with every one of their specious arguments…
re 146 ASOD what is the length of the road got to do with the price of fish? Each MP will still represent about 70,000 electors. And no I haven’t driven from Bromley to Croydon, but I have from Oban to Campbeltown - and think I managed it in one day - so you have absolutely nothing to moan about.
Sarf London to leave the Union.
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/article-23803662-boris-is-waging-war-on-our-citys-subversive-south.do
faisalislam
My sense is that Germany and France are cooking up a Greece bailout behind closed doors to be announced Thursday. Will the UK participate?
168 oldnat
Since this is designed to pay for free personal care in England, presumably it will apply to England only. Surely even Brown can’t be planning to take money from the estates of people dying in Scotland, Wales or NI to pay for the elderly in England?
Quite.
Come to Scotland to die and pass on 20k to your children comes to mind.
176 Scott P
Thanks - usual ill thought out cr@p then!
@154: I don’t think that they’re really comparable - the turnout for by-elections is negligible, and tends to include the dedicated and hardened voters. In the general case where perfectly intelligent voters are already intimidated by the current process, I remain to be persuaded that there is a substantial benefit to change of this sort.
In fact, I’d be more easily persuaded to a proper form of PR on this basis.
Paging tim !!!
http://www.torybear.com/2010/02/exclusive-joanne-cash-not-resigning.html
“WHY ARE THE LDs NOT DOING BETTER ?”
They’re fishing in the same pool as Labour while pretending not to be. That helps them with soft Tories in some areas but there’s no way to grow out of that because at the end of the day that chunk of their vote are still Tory, just timid.
To do better they have to out-compete Labour on the three segments of their mutual core: Guardianista, Ethnic, WWC. Most of the Guardianista and Ethnic core could easily vote for either Lab or Lib depending on which was most likely to win in their area *and* most importantly which was most likely to form a government. For historical reasons Labour had the bulk of the WWC vote were locked into Labour so the other two elements of the core go with Labour.
So in a nutshell to flip Labour they have to look like they’re going to flip Labour so that the bulk of the Guardianista and Ethnic vote switchs en masse - which is a bit of a catch 22.
Currently only likely to happen if (a) they managed to get a large enough chunk of the WWC vote off Labour or (b) the WWC vote disappeared completely from the left side of the ledger or (c) some combination of the two.
imo
182 Kristin
Exactly what was in my mind! I think I’ll buy shares in a funeral directors in Gretna Green! We used to marry English refugees - now we can burn them!
155. That’s not the message. It’s not about cancer it’s about whether the Tories-Cameron-can be trusted on the NHS.
The new Tory ‘RIP OFF’ on the face of it is sharp and strong. The only problem is that if the message is bullshit it’ll backfire. I haven’t heard of a £20,000 death tax?
Paging tim !!!
exclusive-joanne-cash-not-resigning
http://tinyurl.com/yz6c5ye
181 - well if Gordon’s not there he can promise any money ? can he ?
184 Matthew Adams
Again Scots have been using the AMS system since 1999 with no problems. Indeed, we have 4 different voting systems - they only caused confusion when the UK decided that we should use three of them on the same day!
187 Roger
No doubt you think the NHS is so good you leave the French system and come back here for the de luxe service.
186 - :lol want a partner ?
187. Roger. Death Tax
Inheritance levy to fund social care being considered by ministers
Proposals for a levy, thought to be £20,000, would be deducted from the estates of older people when they die
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2010/feb/08/inheritance-levy-social-care-policy
188 - Has Tim posted since OGH’s tore him a new one?
Never really understood the fast track for cancer scheme:
Cancer? certainly sir, let me take you through to our complimentary nhs vip fast track lounge, and would you like to give my t1ts a quick squeeze?
Pneumoconiosis with acute complications and severe but treatable depression, and you are 83 years old? Eff off out of my surgery and come back next year.
It seems exactly as rational a guaranteeing that all white people will get to see a doctor in two weeks.
186 oldnat
LOL
total job satifaction then !
Joanne Cash to withdraw resignation according to Waugh
Lib Dem spokesman on his feet trying manfully to explain why they will be voting for Disproportional Representation.
SNP ask why he supports this referendum on a measure nobody wants, but the LDs at Holyrood will not support a referendum on Scottish independence.
re 178 and after all the proverbially “thick-as-two-short-planks” Irish have managed it without any qualms for night on 90 years. They even manage to get nearly all the results out within 24 hours as well.
O/T - I feel like Jesus. Exactly 40 days since my last cigar or cigarette.
re 187 Ah Roger that’s because you’re sunning yourself on the Cote d’Azure
@190: Ah - now that is interesting. The only problem is that you can’t really judge what its effect on turn-out has actually been - statistically, it is probably subsumed under other variables. Do you know if a study has been done on this particular issue? (Specifically, disenfranchising those who are intimidated by the process.)
It is not something I’d worried about until I did a bit of canvassing in a relatively (and I mean relatively) deprived area.
200,
I tried a few cigarettes as a teenager, to see what it was like. Loved them, but decided the cost and possibly fatal consequences were not worth it.
199. And twice voted to keep STV when their politicians preferred to switch back to FPTP…
196 Alanbrooke
I’m going to call the new crematorium “The Barns o’ Ayr”!
185 Mr Jones
agree with you in as far as that’s what Kennedy was doing quite successfully. Clegg has stopped because he hasn’t got the ambition to take the LDs to government.
If you look at June 2008 polls the LD s had everything going for them. Since then everything has been missed opportunity. Really they should now be in second place going in to this election.
203 - I started smoking cigars at uni. I was told smoking 1 cigar was like smoking an entire pack of cigarettes.
So to be healthy, i started smoking cigarettes, and the occasional cigar.
Giving up smoking is easy, i’ve done it loads of times.
205 oldnat
Sounds a money spinner
I suppose the local SNP guys will also pay you to work there ?
193. Scott thanks. Sounds to me like one of those hoists up the flagpole ideas to see if anyone salutes. A long way from a policy.
Chris A. I’m back in the freezing UK. But thanks for your concern!
Tonight I agree with Martin Coxall (unusual) and Chris A (even more unusual) that the Lib Dems should steer well clear on this one. A poor first step if ever there was one. Let’s tell Labour that it’s time for the real deal if they want to get started on electoral reform, and that we won’t settle for this fudge.
Time to get a proper electoral system. But if we can’t, how about this for a better first step? Elect parliament like a council, with 1/4 of the MPs up for election each year. That way, no pre-election give-aways as every year is election year, we’d be able to kick out an unpopular government within a year, takes the power of dithering about an election away from the PM, and engages local activists more as there will be a national election on their doorsteps each year. Strikes me as a better system than the mess we have at the moment.
CH4 pointed out our debt being the same size as Greece.
Now John Snow taking the pee out of Hain.
Huhne up next so will it get nasty?
So is this why Guido keeps banging on about the labour 3 still have the Labour whip?
http://waugh.standard.co.uk/2010/02/q-when-is-the-labour-whip-not-the-labour-whip.html
210 - It’s at times like these that Yellow Submarine’s nuanced and sensible take on the LD’s position is so sorely missed.
It got nasty and Huhne looks a numpty. Eric puts him DOWN!
158 Kristin
I am very uncomfortable with that Tory billboard ad.
Chris Huhne is being slapped down for constantly talking over Pickles on C4.
Huhne really is a rude c*nt. Ghastly man. I hope he loses. He does the Libdems image no good either.
From the Times (apologies if perviously posted). Mandelson looks a bit of a berk over this:
Kraft confirms factory closure with loss of 400 jobs
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/consumer_goods/article7020884.ece
Will this impact Labour MPs in Bristol?
216. Eric crushed ‘em.
LOL.
Even Jon Snow had ‘fun’.
Kraft’s closure of Cadbury’s in Bristol - despite earlier assurances - will cause massive jitters across Brum…
Labour are going to get monstered there.
213
I think he’s submerged. He wouldn’t give me a straight answer on the LD underperformance yesterday.
218.SallyC, is it worth watching on C4+?
Update from Waugh
UPDATE: I hear that after a meeting with Michael Gove today, Ms Cash has decided to withdraw her resignation. An announcement is expected soon. Will keep you posted.
Lol Tom Harris is enjoying himself..
TomHarris4MP
My goodness, there’s nothing the LibDems like better than debating PR. It’s like political porn to them
215.. it’s better than the last one.
Thought occurs that Labour’s death levy blows their inheritance tax argument out of the water.
Labour’s death tax is wretched politics. They at least had a mantra for their activists to spout - the innumerate “only the 3,000 richest will benefit from IHT cuts”. Now they are going to get hit back with “the Tories want to tax only millionnaires on death - but you lot want to tax working folk when they keel over”.
What were they thinking???
206 Agree. Best opportunity in a hundred years but they don’t seem to have the killer instinct needed.
Agree entirely with this
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/5763908/the-tories-new-attack-poster-is-brownite-politics-at-its-worst.thtml
224 Snap!
Chris.
The Eric/Huhne bit is.
Eric’s face at the end is funny. I suspect there is someone off camera with whom Eric is having an internal giggle.
227, the headline is overblown. Labour are clearly considering the idea and briefed as much but rowed back when it turned out to be unpopular.
Some negativity in a campaign is entirely legitimate, especially when up against the vile creatures of New Labour.
Joanne Cash back in post according to McCrory
213 - you should see me get started on why we shouldn’t raise council tax just to give election junkies their late night counting fixes if you really want foaming at the mouth LibDemmery…
It is worth watching to see the wretched sanctimony of Huhne as he shakes his head constantly. Does he have any awareness of what a world class dipstick he looks?
From the Guardian:
“The health secretary, Andy Burnham, believes he may get the backing for a compulsory plan from Downing Street, but influential cabinet members are still agonising over whether to be explicit about it on the eve of the poll. They fear the proposal may prove to be too bold to sell to the electorate in the heated weeks before an election.
Some cabinet members close to Brown back the proposals, but believe the government may have cold feet, deferring a decision until after the election in the same way that politically difficult decisions on the future funding of higher education have been delayed until a post-election review.”
Debate over whether to announce it, not over the policy.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2010/feb/08/inheritance-levy-social-care-policy
230 “Labour are clearly considering the idea and briefed as much but rowed back when it turned out to be unpopular.”
Oddly, tim’s News Sense seems not to have picked up on LABOUR STRATEGY IN TURMOIL SHOCKER….
I’ve been watching the debate on the Parliament channel - I’m rapidly losing the will to live!
Some good speeches from the Conservative benches but now Limp Debs killing it.
233.’Does he have any awareness of what a world class dipstick he looks?’
I do hope not.
I used to think Clegg was a mistake. Once upon a time.
227 wibbler
the speccie at its worst !
they spend weeks slagging off Cameron for not attacking, then slag him off when he does.
Fraser Nelson and his crew remind me of the Sean O’Casey quote
” a critic is like a eunnuch in a brothel, he’s seen it done every way possible but can’t quite manage it himself “
Whilst we’re all in GerryMander mode, standby tomorrow for the announcement by John Denham on Local Government Reorganisation in Norfolk, Suffolk & Devon.
It looks like Denham will be granting Exeter ‘Unitary’ status in Devon to appease Cabinet colleague John Denham. But the smart money’s also on Norwich to get there too.
Norwich City Council is hung with Labour the largest party by 3 votes ahead of the Greens. On May 6th, it’s nailed-on that the Greens will win. In Norwich, they elect-by-thirds and the Greens will be able to convert all that canvassing in Norwich North to good effect.
But with Labour’s backs against the wall, Denham will use the LGR opportunity to allow the City’s failed Labour administration to dodge the electoral bullet.
Everybody knows that the Tories will cancel the Unitary conversion but Denham reasons that by then it will be too late to hold another election so Labour hold-on for another year instead of picking up their P45’s.
It’s the biggest gerrymander since the Rotten Boroughs were abolished in the Great Reform Act of 1832. Denham will be re-creating a Rotten Borough for the 21st Century.
You heard it here first. Is there nothing that Labour will not do to hold on? If they cancel the election in Norwich…..
I do hope there is a big rebellion or lots of Labour abstainers. It underlines the pointless waste of time and money on Brown’s posturing.
227 I think the poster is dodgy and silly. But after listening to Lardon week after week, and reading tim every day for months, banging on with the “richest 3000 estates” lie, I am also cheering.
227. Just what I said. Very strong if true but if untrue a disaster. And according to the Spectator it’s a pile of bullshit
235 - Tim’s News Sense may have been damaged today by OGH
242 And according to the Guardian it’s true……
227. Any thoughts Labour may have about a proposal along the lines of a death levy should be a key feature in the elections. It is a poisonous idea which shows the true nature of the party.
238 Just what I was going to say.
I didn’t always agree with the Speccie but it was reasonably consistent. Its a pain in the buttocks since Neslon took over. All over the place.
He comes across as a hot head. I saw him on Newsnight with Rawnsley - and I found myself siding with Rawnsley.
227. Just what I said. Very strong if true but if untrue a disaster. And according to the Spectator it’s a pile of bullshit
by Roger February 9th, 2010 at 7:57 pm
roger, perhaps you could point out exactly where the speccie says it is bullshit.(why say this when we can all read the article?)
This is, as the speccie points out a reply in kind to the lies that Brown sets up to enable him to attack tory policy that does not exist.
I don’t particularly agree with getting in the gutter with labour but I can see why they have done it.
And another thing. If the LibDems side with Labour on the AV system tonight they might as well give up and go home.
The Tories will be able to accurately say that “Vote Yellow, Get Brown.”
It’s not exactly as if they want the AV system. It isn’t the same as Proportional Representation or AV+, which is what they want.
So, when push-comes-to-shove, they abandon their principles and throw their hat in Gordon’s ring.
“A vote for Clegg is a vote for Labour.” Oh dear. Oh Dear.
Who was it asking why the LibDems weren’t doing better?
[Has anyone opened a book as to when Gordon will offer a local income tax!]
216. Everyone I know who has met Huhne has found him very unpleasant.
227.wibbler, I think there is more to this poster than that Labour policy. This is a wider message to nail Labour on IHT full stop. Its a death tax, and not a way for the Tories to benefit the richest in our country, but that is what Labour have tried to portray it as. I think that you are missing that point.
The poster about the baby its parents eyes etc and Brown’s debts worked in the same way.
To be honest, I going to enjoy the MSM now pass their judgment on the latest posters out today. Labour’s new poster is a compliment to the effectiveness of the last Cameron/NHS poster. If they have to undermine the message, it must have worked, otherwise why spend money to try and counter it?
re 243 TSE what has Mike done to tim today then?
246 I maintain that FN has been captured by the Coffee House commenters. He’s essentially performing for them. He’s lost some sense of perspective and is turning into Heffer.
New Labour - the stasi state owns you, owns your organs, owns your children, owns everything you earn, owns everything you say, owns everything you think.
Evening comrades. Just enjoying the debate on BBC Parliament. What sort of time are we expecting a vote?
253 - How much money can the state claim when New Labour dies?
I think the Tories SHOULD go negative and attack Labour for a bit - but they have plenty of legitimate targets. The culture of Brownies is incredibly corrosive to political discourse.
Whilst happy to see some negative campaigning, it should be “clean” negative campaigning. I disagree with SeanT - Labour certainly don’t need swiftboating, or even less virulent variations of the same theme when it comes to policy. They just need to be properly exposed for the horror that they are.
251 - Tim lied over Cameron’s popularity figures, and OGH tore him a new one.
See here
re 131. Tim - you are fiddling figures to try to prove a case.
These are the MORI numbers for 2006
http://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/poll.aspx?oItemID=88&view=wide#2006
In the last poll Cameron was on 43% - the highest figure he got to in 2006 was 32%
For the YouGov numbers check out this.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/leaders/cameron
Telling lies about numbers is something that gets right under my skin
Please desist - that is just black propaganda.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/02/09/is-brown-really-the-tories-biggest-asset/#comment-1419524
242, a disaster? Then every PMQs by Brown is a disaster. Every 3,000 estates claim by Labour regarding IHT is a disaster.
252 David: re Fraser Nelson
Heffer junior or that bloke from Harry Enfield
” you don’t want to do it like that, you want to do it like this “
256, this isn’t swiftboating. The only area of contention for Labour was telling the public pre-election or not. They briefed a bit, then got cold feet.
I also hope they go on other areas (debt, deficit etc) but the poster’s message is legitimate.
“Harriet Harman accused of watering down Commons reform”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/7198678/Harriet-Harman-accused-of-watering-down-Commons-reform.html
MM.
I think you’ve hit the election strategy on the head.
Which might be why Roger is rattled.
If George is behind it, you always have to put your thinking cap on and look for the next layer.
256.”He comes across as a hot head. I saw him on Newsnight with Rawnsley - and I found myself siding with Rawnsley.”
SallyC,
I don’t think it’s about whether the Tories should be negative or not generally but this particular idea is such an open goal a very hard negative punch is very much the best call imo.
The Tories have taken a legit briefing from a left friendly paper about a disagreement over the timing of a policy.
Labour completely invent Tory policy. It’s not that they take briefings and run the debate - they do that, of course -but they just make stuff up, out of thin air.
The only surprise about the Tory poster is how quickly they’ve gone negative. It’s visually strong and Labour may well be about to experience that “if you’re explaining, you’re losing” feeling.
For all that, I don’t like the current trend for inventing commitments by your opponents and then attacking them. It debases political discussion.
260 Morris Dancer
I worded that post quite badly. I agree, this isn’t swiftboating.
That was telling deliberate lies about Kerry’s war record - the aim being to assassinate his character.
This is at least a policy attack - but it’s just as bad as Labour using the “£16000″ threshold for the Tories’ plans to cut tax credits, or the ridiculous “3000 richest estates” line.
Arghh, don’t try and follow/post on a thread while multitasking. Apologies for the error strewn posts.
242 Roger
It is a strong ad but I doubt if it will ever be seen at a roadside.
My guess is that it was ‘leaked’ to the internet as a shot across Labour’s bows. “Go ahead with the policy and look what we will hit you with”.
The advantage being that the Tories can then attack Labour’s personal care proposals as unfunded.
P.S. Have read your reply on the Labour billboard ad and will follow up.
266, not that quickly. The whole of January was policy announcements and a big poster of Cameron.
267, the 3,000 estates line is literally true, but omits the fact that everyone else gets a cut too. Likewise, the 20k death tax will come in under Labour, they’ve just decided not to bother telling us after they dipped a toe in the water and found it a little chilly.
Boulton has a blog post along very similar lines to Pete Hoskins
http://blogs.news.sky.com/boultonandco/Post:a935dcf5-4cc7-4e3b-8a32-d2bdc268911a
261
So, meaningful change, out; pointless cynical party political posturing in. Vote Labour……
FTPTPT (From thread previous to previous thread)
Antifrank’s suggestion at 128 on this morning’s thread (the METTHs thread) looks to me like a damn fine idea. Essentially a kind of demographic VIPA, yes?
Do the parties have voting trends by MOSAIC classification? If they did, and someone here was able to convince them to make it available, it could make the exercise far easier.
269 Seth O. Logue
Apparently it is already up in 18 locations in London.
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/thetorydiary/2010/02/tory-poster-targets-labours-secret-plan-to-introduce-20000-death-tax.html
Makes sense to target wealthy marginals with this one, I guess.
Christina
cathynewman
Peter Hain, Eric Pickles and Chris Huhne just interrupted each other about voting reform - never easy on the ear. Watch on 4+1 at about 8.35
In case you want to see it.
Kerry told lies about his war record and was caught out. The Dems have managed to spin their way out of it because “swiftboating” is a good word to describe a thing that the actual swiftboating itself wasn’t.
It’s not as bad. They floated this idea the other day and a couple of people on here commented on how nuts it was. So now they get their fingers burned a teeny bit and withdraw it and whatever closet totalitarian dreamed it up gets to stand in the corner for a while. Not the end of the world.
271. Where is Mr Boutlon when Gordon is telling porkies about Tory policy?
He very rarely contradicts Labour ministers when they do it to his face in interview. I have seen him do it once and it seemed to be prompted by him losing his temper with Gordon.
Where’s his post on the Labour poster earlier in the day which was misleading as to Tory policy?
Unsurprisingly, I think the new Tory poster is excellent. Exactly what Doctor Pollgood ordered. Some nasty, vicious, possibly-dubious-but-who-cares savaging of New Labour.
RIP OFF. Simple, punchy, powerful, pungent. NICE.
Let’s face it, Labour are venal, pus-weeping vermin who will stop at nothing to stay in power, including fixing the electoral system just before an election they expect to lose. They are a disease. And you don’t defeat bubonic plague by asking all the rats to kindly leave by the back door.
You whack ‘em. Hard.
The poster is also several trillions times better than the dismal bit of tuberculoid phlegm Labour sadly coughed up earlier today into the lace hanky of inevitable defeat.
Not sure if this has been posted (I know other stuff along the same lines has been): http://conservativehome.blogs.com/goldlist/2010/02/joanne-cash-reinstated-as-tory-candidate-for-westminster-north.html
Did I hear correctly that the LibDems also have an amendment in that, if passed, there is no way to reverse it after an election, by setting the date in May2011 ?
BNP Gain Barking & Dagenham perhaps?
The deceit of Labour’s immigration policy
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/telegraph-view/7199457/The-deceit-of-Labours-immigration-policy.html
More Labour Lies…….
270 “267, the 3,000 estates line is literally true.”
No it isn’t. The strongest claim I have seen actually argued is that 50% of the benefit will go to the top 3000 estates (and I think that mus mean the top 3000 to die in any given year, not absolutely). You would expect a skewing like that just as if you introduce music performer’s rights to help struggling second violinists over half the money must go to U2/E. John between them. But “it only benefits the top 3000″ must be a lie if it benefits everyone who leaves more than 420 000.
281, bollocks to that. A Tory majority government could just write a new law superceding it and pass it.
The current Tory crew are rubbish at negative because when challenged they look like they’re going to cry - even being slightly stern is a bridge too far. But when they get an open goal like this they should go for the throat quick and sharp briefly and then slip back into blancmange mode. Bit like Pickles really - smiley and genial but always with a sting in the tail.
imo
283, all the 3,000 richest would benefit, I’m not saying 100% of the benefit would be theirs.
My point is that by selecting a fact intended to obscure the whole story, Labour are being disingenuous, likewise with their recent poster about Cameron scrapping a right that doesn’t exist. The Tories’ poster is at least based on Labour policy, albeit one that they’ve decided to keep quiet about after they got cold feet.
Brown’s 10 biggest financial mistakes. Read it and weep.
http://timesbusiness.typepad.com/money_weblog/2009/06/gordons-10-worst-financial-gaffs.html
284. Just like Brown’s legally enforced deficit reduction targets, they are also bollocks.
277. My understanding - and usage - of swiftboating is not the deliberate use of outright lies, but a determined, serious, militant, overwhelming and virulently negative focus on a political opponent’s weak points, wherever and whatever they might be.
New Labour deserve this, in spades. It’s what Brown has been handing out to his own personal enemies for years.
Cab anyone please point me to the savaging of tim by OGH?
282 Crikey. I wonder if that will be their front page ?
290 - MM - Here you go
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/02/09/is-brown-really-the-tories-biggest-asset/#comment-1419524
I also dont rem the tories announcing a rise in VAT but that didnt stop labour telling people they would.
286 “all the 3,000 richest would benefit, I’m not saying 100% of the benefit would be theirs.”
But 100% of the benefit would be theirs is precisely the message Labour continually deploy…
284 - it’s not on the order paper but Heath definitely asked for a separate divison on it. He said if it fell under the 13 month rule the parliament act could not be used and it could not be repealed and challenged the Government to show they were serious. Maybe it was added at the last minute.
Watching the replay of Channel 4 news. What a rude man Chris Huhne. He deserves to be horsewhipped for his lack of manners. Shameful
275 wibbler
That’s a step further than I expected, but I still stand by my interpretation of the poster’s political purpose.
I think Roger is right to claim the Labour ‘policy’ attacked in the poster is not yet committed.
If Labour do go ahead with their propsal then I can see a national poster campaign being very effective. Not only does it successfully attack the ‘£20,000 tax’ but it also neutralises Labour attacks on the IHT tax cuts.
296. TSE
I’d applaud and cheer if someone shoved that trouser-press of his down his throat. He’s an ignorant piece of detritus. Oh how I’d love it if he gets kicked out come the election.
289 Yeah mine too but i think there’s two competing definitions one of which involves Kerry not deserving it - which he did imo.
TSE - ta muchly.
I really would laugh like a drain if Huhne lost his seat. I don’t think he will, but he really needs to be strangled with his own Halo of Self-righteous Smugness.
He would have been insufferable as leader. Now he just stands there, exuding the moral authority of the-leader-who-would-have-been-but-for-a-bloody-postal-strike….
Let’s all have a quick chorus of “Oh-o, should’ve been me…”
281 - Kristin, I understand it is constitutionally impossible to do. No Parliament can bind it’s successor so the LibDems have not got a legal or constitutional leg to stand on with that.
272.Boulton describes the ridicule of the last Conservative poster, so why have Labour tried to counter and undermine that Conservative message/pledge in their first poster of the campaign? Silence from the MSM so far.
Yet again, the MSM are judging this through the Westminster bubble, Labour are obviously doing this because of their private polling and focus group feedback. Throwing the MSM a biscuit by saying that their message is that the electorate doesn’t believe what Cameron is saying is pure politicking, and more fool them for falling for it.
So I ask again, if that Conservative poster was so unsuccessful, why have Labour now attempted to undermine it?
How many times has a Labour politician described the Conservative IHT policy as benefiting the richest 3000 of the population unchecked?
This is a problem for Gordo…
Who do you trust more: Alastair Campbell or Peter Andre?
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/feb/09/peter-andre-alastair-campbell
Why is this Pete Wishart character wearing a shiny blue suit, tie, and a black shirt?
301. Actually it’s an interesting constitutional question. The LD argument is that the new government would not have parliamentary time to repeal it before the referendum was legislated to happen. They could perhaps then retrospectively claim the result was invalid perhaps…
300 MM
yes another LD success courtesy of UKIP
they let the LD Euro leader move from Brussels to Westminster.
301. So now we have childish posturing to add to sucking up to Labour.
The Lib Dems have lost the plot - a small narrowing of the polls and the red mist descends.
re 281 Krisin any Act of Parliament can amend or repeal any other. It matters not if it sets a date for a referendum
301 thanks Nick, yes that’s what I understood so it made no sense in him asking fore it.
228: ‘http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/5763908/the-tories-new-attack-poster-is-brownite-politics-at-its-worst.thtml’
What a whining, lily-livered article in the Spectator! Burnham has clearly been in contact with the Guardian with the intention of kite flying this policy. (It also sounds as if he’s trying to force the hand of some supportive but queasy Cabinet members.) Fine, he presumably wants to cement his ‘radical’ reputation for the coming leadership contest, but don’t bleat if such cleverness hands your opponents a stick with which to spank you!
Blummin Ian Harte scoring a pen against Leeds in the paint pot trophy.
So Brown really isn’t interested in Parliamentary reform:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/7198678/Harriet-Harman-accused-of-watering-down-Commons-reform.html
311 - Not going well for Leeds in the shoot out
276.Kristin, ta, just caught it and glad I did. Pickles in fine fettle I see. Cameron’s attempts to open up candidate selection is making the position of Labour and the Libdems look even more self servicing tonight.
200. Even proverbially, we’ll have less of the ‘thick as two short planks’ thank you very much…!
308. Yes, but you still have to get the new act passed. What if you run out of time to do that?
That has to be the worst taken penalty ever. How high?
If the Act gets passed, but the incoming Govt. makes no money available for the referendum, are the LibDems going to pay for it?
Sorry David Roe.
Jack Straw says government will back tory ammendment to ensure General Election votes are counted on thursday night
from BBC website:
“Mr Straw has also said the government will back a Tory amendment which would guarantee general election votes are counted on polling night.”
The lords would not block a manifesto pledge to repeal the act. That would lead to a constitutional crisis
317 - Got away with it. It was a shocker though.
321. Ah, so the Tories would need to put in a manifesto commitment to repeal the referendum.
318. They have already voted through the money
310 A good article (inadvertently), in the sense that it shows how much better at politics the left are than the right.
The left are utterly unscrupulous in throwing mud at us; we insist on playing by the Queensberry rules, even when our opponents are setting about us with baseball bats.
My views on this poster are the same as Sean T’s. It’s excellent.
Not necessarily, especially as the lords would not block the will of the commons with regards to their electoral reform, just as the commons has so far respected the lords every time they have vetoed the commons on lords reform.
Simple response to this is
Tories : The country can’t afford that sort of money on that referendum. We would rather use it on the NHS. Why do the libdems and labour want to waste that money when it could be useful elsewhere.
This is the new labour poster from today,with a few changes
http://toryrascal.com/2010/02/09/gordongordoff/
316 Scott P
why is time a problem ? You just have to guillotine it it through like this govt. has done hundreds of times.
323 I imagine they would do. And, if they won the election, they would argue that they had a mandate to repeal the legislation.
If the government then refused to provide the infrastructure for any referendum to take place (electoral officers, polling stations etc.,) it’s hard to see how any poll could occur.
Gummer bringing some fire in t’House.
Update…
Joanne_Cash: I did resign. Assoc did not accept. CCHQ resolved specific issue so not leaving. It’s official DC has changed party!!!!!!!!
331 - You’re right, he’s not happy with the Lib Dems
“A presidential leader in No 10? Bring him on”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/daniel_finkelstein/article7021084.ece
re 305 you can pass an Act of Parliament well within a week if you want to. It would hardly be a complex bill. I’ll even give a go a drafting one.
Be it enacted by the Queen’s most Excellent Majesty, by and with the advice and consent of the Lords Spiritual and Temporal, and Commons, in this present Parliament assembled, and by the authority of the same, as follows:—
1. Section 88 of the Constitutional Reform and Governance Act 2010 is hereby repealed.
2. This Act will come into effect on the day of Royal Assent.
3. This Act may be cited as the Constitutional Reform and Governance Amendment Act 2010.
Damn Sylvia Heal for cutting down John Gummer in his prime.
329. Alanbrooke
“why is time a problem ? You just have to guillotine it it through like this govt. has done hundreds of times.”
The LD argument as I understood is that the Lords would block it because they will not have a Tory majority after the election, and there is a time limit on the Parliament act. If the Lords don’t block, then yes, it’s all piss and wind.
332 Do we really want another prima donna?
310. Fraser Nelson currently has is Lobby Pass removed and is facing a libel suit from Charlien Whelan. His publication has swung anti-Cameron while he negotiates these two minor inconveniences. Probably coincidence of course.
335 - nobody is denying that an Act of Parliament can be passed in a week. The issue is that it can’t be forced through in a week in the teeth of Lords resistance. And more relevantly also presumably couldn’t be repealed by a minority Tory Govt.
339 - He had his Lobby pass removed, because he ceased to be Political Editor of the Spectator.
The spectator only has one Lobby Pass, which has been passed onto their current Poltical Editor.
Gummer. “If God had been a Lib Dem, he would have offered 10 suggestions. And 10 different suggestions to his neighbour…”
339 tapestry
frankly if I was Cameron I wouldn’t give him his pass back.
I love some of the asides that the microphones pick up.
Gummer: “I grew out of being a Liberal at 11″
Anonymous Tory drawls: “I was never one”
When will MP’s be voting?
So far so good - Albion up, and Forest and the Bar Codes losing.
WTF??? The url says it all…
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/7198807/More-than-2000-claim-that-they-are-too-fat-to-work.html
On the Conservative poster, I think going negative on Labour is just what the doctor ordered. Theres a hell of a lot to be negative about.
More on Kraft
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/feb/09/roger-carr-takeover-rules
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/daveharvey/2010/02/kraft_made_a_fool_of_us_say_ke.html
A triumph for Mandelson and of course for ‘British jobs for British workers’. Perhaps we need a ‘Chocolate Czar’ to sort this out.
What’s all this misinformation being promulgated about the £20,000 death tax? The Tory poster is based on what Burnham said last year in launching the policy, it’s not been plucked from the ether like Brown and Balls do in attacking non existent Tory policies. He proposed three options, two of which were around the £20,000 mark :
- A “partnership” approach, under which the state would pay around a quarter to a third of the cost of basic social care and support, leaving individuals to find the remainder;
- A voluntary insurance scheme, under which the state would pay the same proportion, but would also make it easier for individuals to take out insurance - at an estimated cost of around £20,000 to £25,000 at today’s prices - to cover the rest;
- Compulsory insurance for all, costing around £17,000 to £20,000 at today’s prices and providing free care for all who need it.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/cough-up-advent-of-the-national-care-service-1745167.html
Hugh Bayley is making a compelling case for me to vote here in York at the next election, rather than at home in Kingswood. Despite the fact that Kingswood is more marginal. I’d quite like to hold the bugger accountable, as he says it’s wonderful.
349
john
talking of Czars maybe you should ask Twitter supremo Kerry McCarthy what she thinks. Her constituency is next door to Keynsham and no doubt Cadbury worker s and suppliers live in her patch.
Or will she just run away saying nuthin we can do guv, we don’t own the banks .
GALLOWAY! \o/
Joking aside, still a creepy man.
re 315 well I’m Irish enough myself to qualify for a passport and will probably do it next time to avoid the ID card - which I bet the Tories don’t quite get round to repealing.
352. Kerry has already opined
http://tinyurl.com/yf53ch4
http://tinyurl.com/yckqepn
Gorgeous George Galloway now live on BBC Parliament re voting system. Fire & Brimstone. Catch it while you can.
351 - Every Labour seat is a marginal.
350. Ted
Good spot. So Brown would seem to have been mulling over his ‘Grim Reaper’ tax after all. Now isn’t that a surprise…..
re 340 there are only 283 Lab and LD peers out of 705 and how solid is that Labour block. The Tories are currently 23 behind Labour. You can reckon on that disparity not-surviving much longer than the dissolution honours list.
355 Scott P
what cringe-making naivety. Truly appalling incompetence.
re 345 the debate is scheduled to end at 10pm.
356. I would love to see him taking on Wee Eck
359. Chris A. Exactly. The HoL is going to be stuffed with Labour cronies at the dissolution.
Why is there no Speaker?
George Galloway talking about the Tories
“They don’t like it up ‘em… well some of them do”
re 364 it’s a committee stage
Galloway. “They don’t like it up ‘em. Well, some of ‘em do…”
Genius!
This polling showing 70% to be completely cynical about Labour’s AV plan makes sense because presently 30% are presently saying they intend to vote Labour.
What is fascinately is that 8% say both, expressing a measure of cynicism. For back in June 2009 Labour were frequently polling 22%!
It is evidence that this 8% that has drifted back to Labour since that time has not fundamentally changed in its assessment of them.
364 - Sylvia Heal is the deputy speaker, and she’s chairing it sat with the clerks, which is right in front of the speakers chair.
367 Scott P
Even the Tories were laughing! (well, some of ‘em)
Fair play to Galloway. He’s bloody entertaining.
350. Are you logged in to post on Sky?
I think Adam Boulton could do with the heads up.
And there’s me thinking all they did was read Labour Press releases.
I absolutely hate Galloway’s politics, but am quite glad he is there.
371 - Indeed, his politics and association with murderous dictators, might not appeal to me, but he puts his arguments with vigour.
In case we forget, he once called Tony Blair and George W Bush “Two cheeks of the same arse”
My irony meter just broke.
Michael Wills justice minister says “The tories are doing this for partisan reasons”
375 Is he wearing overly large shoes and a large false red nose?
375
How did he say that without winking?
Unbelievable. Malcolm Willis from the Despatch Box accusing Tories of Gerrymandering by objecting to the AV voting system on the basis that it would be bad for the Tory Party.
So, after 12 years, Labour’s introducing it because it’s good for the Labour Party. You just couldn’t make it up. The Brass Neck.
378… It gets better. AV is going to deliver more resources for the NHS. So, presumably the costs of the referendum are going to come from the schools budget.
378 - Seriously my irony meter is on fire. We’re going to need at least 500 fire engines to put it out.
Division
“AV is going to deliver more resources for the NHS.”
Wow. Is it going to solve energy security too?
I notice that the BBC Parliament broadcast is referring to Sylvia Heal as Deputy Speaker rather than Deputy Chairman Ways and Means which is what she is today. Typical slovenliness.
Waugh has the lowdown on what has been going on with Joanna Cash
http://waugh.standard.co.uk/2010/02/joanne-cash-that-meeting-in-full.html
The local Association there seems pretty incompetent, frankly.
Result due 22:14.
“We’re going to need at least 500 fire engines to put it out.”
That’s okay-AV will provide, apparently……
More election night news:
Looks like Calder Valley and Halifax will both be counting on the night:
http://www.halifaxcourier.co.uk/news/Election-count-will-be-held.6050567.jp
Following on from my post at 384
And also, Joanna Cash seems to be a rather unstable character.
388. Indeed. Disputes with the local association? She’s the candidate and she be quite above the local wranglings.
Whilst you’re waiting, you might like to read my PB2 article from last September on why some Returning Officers wanted a Friday Count.
http://politicalbetting.blogspot.com/2009/09/spoilt-ballots-friday-count-debate.html
and from August last year why they want to keep April 8th clear for the election
http://politicalbetting.blogspot.com/2009/08/naming-date-when-will-general-election.html
384
I wonder if they have the same agent as they used to. He was pretty top-notch. It’s a pretty eccentric crowd from my memory and he managed them well.
388 - I’m going to blame the pregnancy hormones.
Here’s a novel idea:
Returning officers and the people who count the votes should feel PRIVILEGED to be participating in our democratic process. They should happily do the whole thing FOR FREE.
They shouldn’t be treating it like some awful chore that they’re having to do on sufferance. They should be happy to do the entire thing for free in my opinion.
Story equals two women fall out. Both have some good points and frineds in the association. It gets out of hand. It calms down.
388 It also looks as if Lord Strathclyde was involved in manoevres that Eric, Sir Simon and others were unaware of.
How Labour thinks putting a referendum front and centre is good for them is beyond me, it just reminds voters, “hang on, wheres that other referendum we were supposed to have”
How can they justify it?
384 Waugh is good. I think a lot of these A listers are going to be a constant source of entertainment in the next parliament.
392, as excuses go, that’s a bloody good one.
Amendment carried by 365 to 187
The Commons debate on electoral reform is a timid attempt to bring in the ‘new politics’ – and shows old politics at its worst
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/feb/09/av-electoral-reform
Result on AV Vote…
Ayes [in favour] 365
Noes [against] 187
“Vote Yellow. Get Brown” That Nick Clegg wants to get his coat.
The only thing left now is to cancel the May 6th elections in Norwich so that Labour hangs-on for another year in the face of certain defeat by the Greens. Tune-in again at 12.30pm tomorrow to catch the announcement.
398 - As someone who is experiencing pregnancy hormones, I’m going to give her a lot of leeway.
180 majority for AV. Where’s the Labour rebellion? Oh yeah, it’s with their backbones, in the unicorn stable.
Lib Dems crawl into bed with Labour. Pathetic.
402 - That should be
As someone who is experiencing a woman with pregnancy hormones, I’m going to give her a lot of leeway
The only good thing about AV is that its better than Huhne’s dreadful proposal for huge multi-member constituencies.
Chris A
Yes, but what a pathetic, archaic, time wasting voting procedure.
This is Iain Martin’s take on the Westminster kerfuffle
http://blogs.wsj.com/iainmartin/2010/02/09/joanne-cash-and-carry-on/
Oh Rod must be vigorously enthusing himself over this AV nonsense as we type.
the lib dems have just scored the most monumental own goal in electoral history.
Like a bad poker player thet have shown their hand before the flop.
Looking forward to canvassing now.
Goodbye Burstow…
re 405 come on AndyJS just give me one cogent reason why a constituency of North Birmingham or Croydon and Bromley is so dreadful? Just one.
It was obviously from the lack of news of Gordo having meeting with backbenchers complete with tales of the dodgy back room deals, it was going to be an easy win for the government.
Wonder what the public will think that any such referendum with cost us, the taxpayer, £80 million?
403. Pretty clear that you have no understanding of any sort of tactical positioning. The subsequent HoC vote on making STV the voting alternative to FPTP is the real focus of LD strategy.
176. I’m sure he is having a self gratifying time……
391. If we are talking about the same guy, he’s pretty eccentic himself but great fun.
388. I suspect its over the top to say Lord S was on manoeuvres. The Chairman had decided to step away and being a friend it looks like he wanted to offer her a consiliatory face saver. Presidents don’t do much [most of the time]. But they are allowed to attend management meetings even if most don’t come. It could have been an ideal solution if the terms were understood and it had been need cleared before hand.
409
How can an MP represent 350,000 people or more?
And who do you write to if you have 3 tories, a Labour and a Lib Dem MP in your “constituency”? What if they (inevitably) all have different views on local issues?
It’s a sh1t idea.
411. Not sure where £80m comes from , but what price do you place on democracy?
What’s this? Live on BBC Parliament
Division on bringing-forward the date of the AV referendum to May 30th this year and using the STV method.
Call me stupid but with only Yes or No as valid answers, if you get two choices wont the result be a tie?
WTF?
BTW May 30th this year is a Sunday. WTF-to-the-power-of-twp
Just perusing the PoliticsHome site - hate the redesigned look - and there is a headline saying “Tory lead down again in new poll” which then goes on to say they have a 10 percentage point lead.
Am I missing something (always possible) or is this the same lead it’s been for a while, given the margin of error?
New Conservative poster just shown on ITV News, Andy Burnam said it is distasteful but no denial about the policy.
417, gerrymandering par excellence. I want a manifesto commitment from the Tories to axe this shit.
415. Whoever you feel will represent your interests best. That’s the idea of representative democracy.
Oh well. That’s the end of that then. The amendment’s passed, but won’t have time to make it into law.
What a pathetic move by Brown, and trust the LibDems not to take advantage of the opportunity.
I can’t wait to hear how the Govt and Libdems think we can spare £80 million to prop up Labour and the Libdems.
The ads are going to write themselves.
1 : Libdems never wanted a referendum on Europe only one that would benefit them.
2 : Labour trying to change the voting system 90 days before an election, I wonder why, they promised a referendum before, we all know how that turned out.
3 : Vote Yellow, Get Brown.
The Libdems and Labour have now hung themselves out to dry, time to go in for the kill.
More meaningless vox pops from Nick Robinson in Pendle.
417 - if that’s true Gordo’s going for an early June election. Makes no sense
Interesting that there wasn’t a full Tory turnout against AV - in fact if there were any Labour rebels at all the Tory count falls well short.
Sean T upthread: AV is not proportional. But what it does do is allow you to “cast the b*****ds out” with much greater chance of success than the blunt instrument that is FPTP.
Want to vote against Labour, but afraid your vote won’t be effective? Know that you can place any/all opposition parties in whatever order you wish, and that eventually your vote will be against Labour.
What’s not to like for you?
mike
why is my comment in moderation?
282 - so we finally find out that the rumours were true.
Labour you are “chumps” and will pay dearly at the next election for this and your other crimes.
372.”I think Adam Boulton could do with the heads up.
And there’s me thinking all they did was read Labour Press releases.”
SallyC,
I didn’t catch the report, but did I see that new Conservative poster just feature in ITN News at 10 already??!!
419.John, was he asked to admit or deny the this Labour policy?
Tory poster shown on ITV because there is a ‘row’.
The Tory poster is shown and read out.
Andy Burham’s comments also stated ie.’tasteless’ and ‘flippant’.
I suspect the message that they want 20 grand off you will benthe one that hits the mark.
Its gone wider than the 18 sites in London now.
424. Yes but notice the contrast.
Yesterday Robinson said that based on what people had said Brown did not have enough votes to survive.
Tonight he was non-commital about the result of what people had said.
And based upon what we saw it was around 50:50 Yes:No. Certainly over 40% Yes.
425, so… this isn’t actually law? Will it happen or won’t it?
428- becaue you are a plonker timmo
432 Plus, wipes Labour’s off the front page, as it were.
This is a waste of £80 million. Parliament should make the final decision as to whether to change the voting system.
O/T apparently not only is the car in front a Toyota - has to be in front as it’s accelerator is stuck and brakes have failed but the reason it’s veering across lanes is the steering is suspect as well.
If you are going to lose a 50 year reputation for quality that’s the way to do it….
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/engineering/article7020967.ece
Yes!!!!!!!!
Watford = safe
Burnley = down
LDs = cheerio!!!!!
ITN, wonderful. Headline about Brown trying to change the voting system just before a GE, but not expected to get through the Lords before it. Is that a lose lose on the old PR front, and I don’t mean proportional representation.
BBC Parliament - Live - Segeant at arms called to investigate delays in HoC Lobby.
Perhaps Knacker is investigating a case of mass corruption.
304 AndrewG
Because he is a real multi million selling rock star
417: the amendment replaces the AV with STV in the clause in the bill. (if you don’t understand the jargon they are changing the terms of the referendum not adding to it)
LD STV amendment defeated by 476 to 69. So the overwhelming majority of MPs anti-democratic
What was Labour’s excuse for not voting for STV but voting for AV?
“So the overwhelming majority of MPs anti-democratic”
Behave.
Ayes 69
noes 476
Forget a June election.
So it’s April 8th then if budget date announcement made tomorrow for March 10th, unlocking dissolution on Thursday 11th and polling first Thursday after Easter.
426 yes all about labour abolishing the decent democratic traditions which have ruled here since 1066!!!!!
420 would be nice of camo to stand up for something other than giving rich families more money or green initiatives - if he doesnt start standing up soon then it will be nick palmer rule worldwide!!!!
438. Apparently they are changing their slogan to “The car in the ditch is a Toyota…”
Ah that will be my taxi!
I notice both Sky News online & BBC news online are both Headlining the save election night as a victory for Jack Straw. Yes he supported it but it was tabled by Cons with cross party support.
Sky’s take on vote
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/Politics/Electoral-Reform-MPs-Back-Allow-Referendum-On-Alternative-Vote/Article/201002215545766?lpos=Politics_Carousel_Region_2&lid=ARTICLE_15545766_Electoral_Reform%3A_MPs_Back_Allow_Referendum_On_Alternative_Vote
re 415 I sometimes just despair about the arguments put forward on here - we’re supposed to political aficionados.
That area will not have 1 MP it will have 5. They will probably divide it up into areas and hold surgeries in each. You can go an see whichever one you want. You will not give any preferences to any of your party next time if they are crap.
If you don’t know how STV works stop talking facile crap about it.
This is all an utterly pointless waste of Parliamentary time.
It’s for a referendum next year, and it’s not going to have time to pass through Parliament anyway.
[Belms at Brown]
What a mentalist. What a waste of time.
411 & 437. You criticise the cost of referendum. In terms of changing something as fundamental as the electoral system, why do you think a cost of £2 per person is too much given that it is likely to be a ounce in a 20/30/40 year referendum?
Forgive my ignorance, but what’s the difference between STV and AV…?
new thread
431 - No denial. As SallyC says at 432, very good value for only 18 sites in London getting national coverage. Who ever briefed The Guardian must be in a lot of trouble now.
426 Odd definition of interesting.
A number of you decided not to embarrass and in so doing made any debate and vote utterly pointless.
As far as Parliament is concerned, business as usual under Labour.
You seem to expect the Tory party to enjoying pissing in the wind as much as some of yours do.
443.’LD STV amendment defeated by 476 to 69. So the overwhelming majority of MPs anti-democratic.’
Either that or they don’t trust Huhne’s laughable boundary changes designed to give him a safe seat asap.
Just to follow up on the rumour a week or so ago that Iranian government militias had plans to seize the British embassy in Tehran at some point. Its nice to see that today the embassies of France & Italy came under stone fire from an apparently random civilian mob…
Immigration story front page of Telegraph.
Will it get traction this time?
Today’s proceedings are the Committee stage (sitting on the floor of the House).
Per Parliament website no date even set yet for 3rd Reading.
Does anyone know when this is? Timetable already set for w/c 22 February. If Commons 3rd Reading is not till w/c 1 March then surely there is no hope of Bill going through in full (it would then still have all Lords stages to go).
re 437 well I can agree with you on that one. A referendum is a complete and utter waste of time and money. We need to decide if we want government by parliament or plebiscite, but not both.
absolutely deplorable
if camo can get his ar*e in gear and support the working decent class of britain he will win and then in the new parliament we can have:
- house arrest of all labour and LD mps who served since 97
- all benefits cancelled and all those who got benefits since 97 made to repay them or put on street cleaning duties
Where’s tim
http://toryrascal.com/2010/02/09/gordongordoff/
454. One has high district magnitude, the other low (which is the main determinant of proportionality.) Both are preference voting systems. Both are an improvement on FPTP.
461. Chris - don;t you perceive that there may be at some point in the future an issue which a referengum may be appropriate? Even in countries where PR prevails and the legislature is roughly aligned to the populat vote, one off issues of major importance are put the great unwashed. Based on previously reported £80m cost, is £2 a head too much?
440.
BBC Radio London reported the vote ‘as the first step to reform’. No word of disent.
re 465 No absolutely not. We managed to govern ourselves effectively for hundreds of years before 1975 without the need. That’s why we pay 650 MPs £65k + expenses a year.
446 Ave it
“the decent democratic traditions which have ruled here since 1066″
You mean the tradition established in 1066 whereby a non-Englishman takes over your government and uses his foreign troops to force unpalatable measures on the subject people?
I find it hard to believe Brown is a true convert to AV. I think this is about opportunism; hoping to do a deal with LDs if Cameron does not secure majority.
It will be up to the next parliament to repeal the legislation but to do so, Cameron must have a working majority.
350 - I had a briefing on the green paper last year and a figure of around £24,000 per person was stated based on current predictions on elderly care if I remember correctly.
The amount wasn’t the argument really… it was actually how it should be paid; lump sum on retirement, on death via estate / paid in working life taxes etc.
A decision needs to be made by 2016 as well - I was told.
But i do wonder if there is another angle…
Unless we can get those who can work, but choose not to along with all those who are claiming disability allowance when they are able to work - we are in big trouble.
David Cameron is going to speak on that tomorrow I’ve heard.
Having to pay for a ‘national care service’ will just be one more reason for many to spend a life being looked after by the state, happy in the knowledge that you will get the care along with those who have to pay.
As someone who pays my fair share of tax, NI and 6% of what I earn into a pension scheme I think I’m qualified to say the following:-
I’m more than happy that my NI and tax goes towards looking after those who are in genuine need of the benefits system. However, I can see a great many people feeling betrayed, if in old age, they are paying even more tax so that others who have chosen to live their lives on benefits can get the same care regardless.
That may sound awful and selfish, but it’s not aimed at those who genuinely haven’t been able to work throughout their lives.
I would suggest it will cause significant trouble and unrest in fact and I predict this debate will move towards a very hard line on benefits culture and ‘the work shy’.
Many of the problems we face, socially and financially, can only start to be solved if we deal with the shameful dependency and abuse of benefits created by this Labour government.
The message I hope Cameron is going to promote would be something like this:-
We cannot afford to be looking after so many people anymore who are actually quite able to contribute or shouldn’t be recieving help in the first place.
If you genuinely need support, we’ll be there for you every step of the way. We will provide you with a safety net while you get back on your feet or if need long-term support and social care.
But, to the rest… You’ve had a good run, now it’s time to do your bit under a Conservative government whether you like it or not.
No? - well, sorry to hear you feel that way, but things are going to be tough for you in the future… it’s your choice.
Actually it’s 16% think he’s genuinely convinced of electoral reform (8% of whom also think he’s partly doing it to improve Lib Dem coalition chances). Still a very low percentage, but much better than 8%.