Will we ever do “negative” as effectively as this?
February 9th, 2010Could the reds or blues produce a version for the final week?
With all the talk of negative ads today let’s look back five and half years to see how it’s really done.
Could we get something similar here? Obviously we have PPBs not paid for TV political advertising but it’s the message that’s central.
What about “could you trust this man with……his finger on the nuclear”/saving the world from a banking disaster….etc” with references to secretaries and chairs or the Bullingdon Club?
Whatever this election is going to get very dirty the closer it gets to the day.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
Well, the Tories are working on it.
I hope not. I don’t like negative ads one little bit.
A fairly negative comment to kick off, then.
Ooh, that’s fighting talk, Nick.
We should look forward to Labour’s endlessly positive campaign in the GE then, eh?
McBride, anyone? We haven’t forgotten, Nick.
Let’s hope so. The Dirtier the better
There will be a record number of postal votes at this election, so leaving it until the last week might be too late.
1. Was Damian McBride ever expelled from the Labour Party?
1, McBride.
Mike. You spoilsport. We were all having a lovely time on the last thread commenting in open mouthed amazement at the way in which the Government was gerrymandering the election and now you’ve got us lathered up about Bush/Cheney six years ago.
No wonder threads go off topic.
On Topic. Positive campaigning always wins out in the end. But the Political Excitement comes from executing the Black Arts from the shadows in the margins where elections are won.
Mike. You spoilsport. We were all having a lovely time on the last thread commenting in open mouthed amazement at the way in which the Government was gerrymandering the election and now you’ve got us lathered up about Bush/Cheney six years ago.
No wonder threads go off topic.
On Topic. Positive campaigning always wins out in the end. But the Political Excitement comes from executing the Black Arts in the margins where elections are won.
It amazing how Gordo knew nothing about those McBride emails given where the two used to sit in the bunker….
Mike, some of us predicted this after witnessing the 2007 elections in Scotland. When Labour was well in front it still used negative campaigning very effectively, now it has its back up against the wall and the Brownites in charge, they will go totally feral.
Re AV - today’s proceedings are still in the Committee stage (sitting on the floor of the House).
Per Parliament website no date even set yet for 3rd Reading.
Does anyone know when this is? Commons timetable already set for w/c 22 February. If Commons 3rd Reading is not till w/c 1 March then surely there is no hope of Bill going through in full (it would then still have all Lords stages to go).
So the Lib-Dems now completely and totally hitch their coat tails to the failed and discredited Labour government - Now let them suffer all the consequences of the inevitable kicking Labour are heading for.
The message rings out loud and clear from Westminster tonight. You want to vote for a change of government you MUST vote Conservative. All you’ll get with the Liberal Democrats is five more years of Brown!
It’s about time that Cammo and his party got down and dirty and start to go to war with Labour in earnest.
re 454 FPT STV and AV are basically the same except that you do STV in multi-member constituencies - from 2 upwards. In each case you only have 1 vote and in each case you are trying to get your most preferred candidate elected. Even though you might only have 1 vote in a 5 member constituency, all those elected in that constituency will represent you.
1 hahahaha thanks for abolishing 1,000 years of british history
Labour have NEVER stood up for britain - but you will be on the dole queue soon so good!!!
Delivernothing np!!!!!!!!
where’s tim
http://toryrascal.com/2010/02/09/gordongordoff/
Since when did the Tories cease being negative? The secret is to keep a reasonable balance. Cameron is starting to get in a panic and his accusations are not hitting the target. Clegg will be enjoying this…
1. They had good teachers in Labour didn’t they Nick?
McBride, that moronic idiot Draper, Maguire, Simon, Campbell, Mandelson, Watson, Whelan….
Its a veritable chamber of horrors
re 10 indeed it seems a very odd choice of topic and time of publishing given the story of the moment is the electoral system.
Drat I’m on a laptop and it won’t stream.
15. I usually vote Lib Dem, but Clegg’s just put a stop to that. What a berk.
‘Positive campaigning always wins out in the end.’
You hope so. There are masses of marginals where the Tories are staying clean and the LDs are negatively campaigning from their burrows. We will see. I suspect it works well. Within reason.
re 15 the AV amendment would still have carried even if every LD had voted against it.
1, Yeah they are going to try and smear the oppositions wives….
Oh, that was your lot.
Let’s never forget, the Labour party produced this negative PPB.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bRKhTQHrtdk&feature=related
20 – reflecting – are you a Liberal Democrat by any chance ?
Back to the previous topic - There is very little doubt that an open, varied and honest debate on the electoral system is something that is both interesting and welcome.
What is NOT is to throw a Bill at the Commons in the last weeks of a Parliament in a desperate and frankly insulting effort at garnering third party support in the event of a close election.
The Lib Dems should have laughed in Brown’s face.
26,not the point,the point is,
VOTE YELLOW GET BROWN.
3,4,5,8,9: ha - you’re jealous that I got in first without just saying “first!” Swift thinkers, Labour MPs, y’know.
On a less contentious note: there will be a free vote shortly on whether (as proposed by Dominic Grieve) to compel councils to count the GE on eleciton night, unless there are exceptional circumstances. I plan to support it.
I would love to see a rule introduced whereby parties could not mention any organisation or candidates other than their own. Consequently, most of them wouldn’t have anything to talk about, of course, but think of the peace and quiet. Why, we might even find out what some of the parties stand for, and voters could make up their minds accordingly.
Front pages
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/UK-News/Newspaper-Front-Pages-On-Wednesday-February-10-2010/Media-Gallery/201002215545770?lpos=UK_News_Left_Promo_Region_0&lid=GALLERY_15545770_Newspaper_Front_Pages_On_Wednesday%2C_February_10%2C_2010
26 - That’s not the point at all. This is gesture politics at its worst and they made the wrong gesture.
Alastair Campbell has revealed that despite his differences in the past with Gordon Brown, he still intends to play a part in the Prime Minister’s election campaign.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newsvideo/uk-politics-video/7198585/Alastair-Campbell-on-Tony-Blair-Iraq-and-his-legacy.html
26. Vote yellow get Brown. Libdems are Brown’s b*tches…
15. GIN - take more water with it! You are so partisan that I do wonder who -a apart from your political fellow travellers - takes you seriously.
29. Not sure it’s relevant, but yes. By the way, PBer’s I guarantee not one person will mention PR to me on the doorstep this week!
Take that “wolves” nonsense down! Now this is what you want to see:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Io9KMSSEZ0Y
There is no way that either Cameron or Brown can top this, or if there is I don’t want to know how. I think Lee Atwater apologized for it on his deathbed.
re 457 FPT SallyC there are NO safe seats in STV. If the voters of East Sussex thought that the other likely LD MP was a much better constituency MP then they could vote for him first in preference to Huhne. Anyway it will be for the Boundary commissions to allocate the seats. What rationale would you use if you didn’t use counties.
What’d you think of your party’s PPB which suggested Cameron would go round and punch old ladies, Nick?
25 From my personal experience, Labour’s negative campaigning in Crewe and Nantwich played VERY badly on the Crewe council estates.
26. Don’t matter! The L/Dems now have the curse of Jonah Brown truly affixed to them.
Cleggover is now Cleggsucker!
“Swift thinkers, Labour MPs, y’know.”
Jim Devine?
Oh no wait, is he still an Labour MP, or did Gordo kick him out for real this time?….
26. No doubt. But of course the Lib-Dems did vote for it, just as they colluded with Brown to deny us our say on Lisbon, despite earlier having promised to let us have our say. Where Brown leads, the Lib-Dem follow like sheep. Enough. Its time for both of them to face an onslaught from the electorate. Let’s start with getting rid of that loud mouthed rent a quote Huhne!
33 Mr Carp - are you still in the environs of St Pauls?
42 Ironic, David - given that it was Gordon Brown punching poor people in the face for being poor in the 10p tax fiasco.
44 - Cleggsucker just sounds so wrong
24. You are Armando Iannucci ( not sure of spelling ) and claim my €5. You’re having a laff!
The thing is, the libdems are too stupid to realise they just cut off all connections to the Tories. They can forget about any warm overtures from the tories, the libdems are on their own.
They have cut their own throat.
As I said in the last thread, I hope the negative campaigning is “clean” - like Cameron’s attack on Brown for not dewhipping the troughers, or “Labour’s not working”, or “Gordon Brown’s debt” - or for that matter, Labour’s (otherwise moronic) new Camera-on NHS poster.
I don’t like the slightly dirty negative campaigning suggested by the tombstone poster - or that Labour come up with when they talk about inheritance tax, or £16000 thresholds for tax credit cuts.
I especially don’t like the 527-style negative campaigning we see in the States.
44. No doubt he and the rest of the Libdems have been practising all week. I wonder if their Labour masters enjoyed it?
43 - There is negative campaigning, then there is dissing a well respected local family who run a well known and well liked business or. And the final straw the dissing of Bentley motors, what chump came up with that idea? They couldn’t have been from the Crewe area that is for certain, kinda of like the “local” Labour candidate!
And so they’ve guillotined the Constitutional Reform bill to debate the \Sunbed Regulation Bill\, which the Minister tells us is ‘an urgent problem’.
Can someone just call a f*****g election now.
GIN - Who exactly do you think you are influencing when you spout such nonsense?
26. If they had voted against it and made it clear they were gonna do so, it may have encouraged some Labour MP’s to revolt.
Anyway, as others have said, it’s not the point. They had a chance to atone in some small way for their part in the Lisbon referundum that never was.. they failed miserably.
I have voted Liberal (in it’s various forms) for most of my life.. never again.
re 39 reflecting that’s lucky because as 476 MPs have shown this even we’re not being offered PR.
How come the LibDems decided to go back on a referendum which was their manifesto promise, but supported a last minute referendum proposal for something they admit they don’t actually like?
If Clegg ends up in the phone box situation, he would only have himself to blame.
Though he’d probably not be inside it himself.
I do like their movies but….
Richard Curtis and Bill Nighy team up in new film urging Tobin tax on bankers
Campaign film says 0.05% ‘Robin Hood’ tax on financial trades could raise $700bn for world’s poor
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/feb/09/tobin-tax-nighy-curtis-film
47 More like Moorgate these days, Tabbers, but I am always willing to travel for a good lunch!
49, yet so accurate.
49,It doe’s,so we go back to his nickname we all know him by,calamity
60 - He’d have Martin Day in there with him laughing
51. Can that be given in writing duly sealed?
56. Frank. Nobody. I just speak for myself.
The Guardian attacking BBC profligacy on its front page? Has the world gone mad?
This election will be about the economy - the Tories won’t do very well if they keep banging on about voting systems.
52. Get real wibbler. I just love 24/7 negative campaigning. It’s the spice of life.
“the Tories won’t do very well if they keep banging on about voting systems.”
!!!!
The problem for the Lib Dems is that they have always seemed to be somewhat independant.
Not any more and this will be the message on the doorstep from now until election day.
I repeat for Tyson..Bye Bye Burstow
63
I prefer Brown’s got his Cleggover finally.
Incidentally I’ve just counted 16 MPs in the Chamber. What are we paying them for? They really are taking the piss.
Seriously if the Tories want to go negative, I have lots of slogans they can use for free.
Voting Labour or Lib Dem causes cancer.
Come on, do you really want this weirdo in no10 for another 5years
UKIP, come on, do you really want Brown in.
Ed Balls - Nothing more to add.
67. Phew. That’s a relief!
The vote on counting: this seems likely to pass as both Labour and the Conservatives support it. However it will only require counts to *commence* within four hours. A returning officer was on R4 just now saying he would commence and then suspend the count until the following day if he felt it appropriate.
70 weathercock
Oh, I love negative campaigning.
However, clean negative campaigning (like Labour’s not working) is not the same as dodgy campaigning (like the tombstone poster/3000 richest estates), and dodgy campaigns are not the same as low blows (like playing fields of Eton), and low blows are not the same as downright dirty campaigning (like the Willie Horton ad/Swift Boat veterans etc.)
72. “The problem for the Lib Dems is that they have always seemed to be somewhat independant”
Er when? They have always been Labour-Lite.
32 ok you will get six months of your sentence for that
Negative Campaigning.
Goldfinger He Sold The Gold at the Bottom of the Market.
Jackie Ashley writes
Politicians behaving badly at AV debate
The Commons debate on electoral reform is a timid attempt to bring in the ‘new politics’ – and shows old politics at its worst
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/feb/09/av-electoral-reform
77, if they try that people will be pissed. It’s clearly against the spirit of the law.
1997…. not fair
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8506306.stm
I wonder what this will do in lib-lab marginals?? Im fairly sure we’ll now see a swing to the tories in the lib-con marginals now clegg has taken the labour whip… but as a tory, if i lived in a lib-lab marginal, after tonight i wouldnt vote lib, id stay with con. Could we see the cons sneek through the middle or lab hold on to those marginals? either way the lib dems have made a very very stupid decision tonight.
all together now ‘vote yellow get brown’
Even by recent standards of Groupthink, tonight’s synchronised outbursts are extremely amusing.
Just a little something in honour of you all!
I have to say the LDs have made a real cock up of their policies.
What do they do as their encore ?
They have clearly allied themselves with Brown instead of playing their own policies, so it is now LD\Labour v Tories. This puts a risk to their soft right wing vote but unless they attack Labour they can’t get any more votes from the left. And the centre is stuffed full.
So unless there is a HP ( they are forecasting one ) they have pretty well lost the ability to take the initiative. If there is a HP they will be associated with an economic crisis because that’s what will happen in the markets. If there is a Tory government Labour will push them aside as the natural party of opposition and there will be no change to the voting system.
Clegg truly cannot understand that Kennedy had it it right by parking on Labour’s lawn and slowly taking the keys of the house.
Nick nice but thick has just sent his party back to the wilderness.
80. Ave It, will you be sending all Lib-Dumbs to Labour camps (Mike S excluded of course) after tonights astonishing Lib-Dumb behaviour?
81 Goldfinger
Accompanied by picture of Brown giving voters ‘The Bird’ [mental image - middle finger coloured gold]
shyt we would have come 3rd in 97!!!!!!
back to FPTP now!!!!!!!!!!!
Let’s not forget how advanced Labour’s negative campaigning is. Remeber this masterpiece from the ‘honourable’ member for Birmingham Erdington:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yn4IpyVViw4
62 - Augustus - you’re on. You can email me at the usual address!
The AV referendum vote only matters to political geeks. There are very few political geeks who are floating voters.
Most people couldn’t give two hoots. No-one cares about this stuff.
It matters strategically - because the LDs are now less likely to form a coalition with the Tories - but it won’t matter electorally.
Where’s the red team?
NPMP doesn’t count any more as he’s on garden leave like most MP’s these days isn’t he? Gordon’s vision for his PM’ship still cunningly being held back after 13 years.
Loved the self-knowing irony of your post to kick this thread off, think others missed it!
it’s too grown up on here therefore… stop your little huff and come back tim, no need to sulk.
Another great day for the blue team, clients now worrying not only about IHT but now Gordon’s death tax for the many as well.
I’m going to miss the poor old trout when he’s gone.
Chris A.
He’s trying to make himself a lot safer than he is now.
And trying to cut the map up to suit the LDs.
It was hardly a piece of neutral boundary changing.
Fine. But don’t take up a posture of moral indignance because your persoanlised electoral map was rejected. It looks silly.
77: Counting vote seems to have moved into Report Stage (unless it went through on the nod when I wasn’t looking). Labour is neutral on it (free vote). I agree Grieve has left a loophole for agents if they really want to play silly buggers and count 1 vote then go to bed - but can’t see many doing that.
Back on topic - is that really such a great ad? Makes a few boilerplate assertions about Democrats, then shows some rather cute wolves. Was it thought to be hugely effective?
90,ave it,cameron on your case,look at the express front page
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/UK-News/Newspaper-Front-Pages-On-Wednesday-February-10-2010/Media-Gallery/201002215545770?lpos=UK_News_Left_Promo_Region_0&lid=GALLERY_15545770_Newspaper_Front_Pages_On_Wednesday%2C_February_10%2C_2010
Negative Campaigning
It’s not over until the fat lady sings The trouble is, she’s just been forced to repay forty-three grand.
85. One really does wonder which world you live in. It’s fair enough to have an alternative political perspective, but to effectively insult the collective intelligence of a site of generally politically aware bods is rather sad. We know you are not making a serious point and it isn’t even amusing. What’s the point?
There’s nothing inherently “evil” about negative ads. The question shouldn’t be whether they’re negative; the question should be whether they’re truthful.
i’d love to see a campaign poster in 3 sections with
Cameron top, caption “British Gold Standard”.
Brown middle, caption “sold our gold, we’re broke”
Clegg bottom, caption “fake Gold, do not buy”.
88 hahahaha i am sending mike s to the championship like his team!!!!
Biggest outrage of all time LDs = 2nd in 1997????!
Good job i didnt vote labour then
Nick palmer = mark senior
scrpaheap - still in the Commons but now the crucial issue of sunbeds has been dealt with, I’ll head home. Nice to see someone can spot irony - this site has a goodly share of Disgusteds of Tunbridge Wells.
re 95 Sally it’s not my electoral map and just please answer the question what would you use as a basis for a multi-member constituency?
sorry - its NPoMP isn’t it.
Personally, I think a good Tory poster campaign would just say
“It’s not racist to talk about immigration”.
It’s kind of ironic, in a “we were right, weren’t we” way.
82 - TSE Crikey I agree with a lot of what Jackie Ashley says in that article.
I hope Mr Palmer remembers he represents all of his constituents not just those who voted for him last time, if as I expect, he voted for this bill I hope he will receive the appropriate gratitude at the ballot box.
The Telegraph front page and Leading Article should provide some uncomfortable moments over the next wee while.
New Labour = BNP recruiting arm.
LiBDems .. saps.
I see the LDs were humiliated, despite their craven toadying up to Labour. Haven’t you learnt anything from your experience in Scotland?
It probably didn’t help that the idiot Huhne thought it wise to stick proposed constituencies into the amendment. Why would a Glasgow MP vote to turn his city into a d’hondt nightmare?
Negative Campaigning
Flush Gordon hat-tip Jonny Jimmy February 9th, 2010 at 1:25 pm
I think it’d need to be an animated with a picture of “flash” Gordo turning into a brown poo and being flushed!
96 I would put all labour mps on ‘Report stage’!
97 yes Camo lets lock them up now!!!!! Sentence them now try them later!!!
102. Or;
Mark Senior = Nick Palmer
It works both ways.
Frank, what would you say if I told you I voted Lib-Dem in 2005 because of Kennedys courageous and correct stance over Iraq? :O
87. Ditto my comment at 99. The certainty - rather than opinion - associated with likely outcomes over the next few months is curious. None of us know and those who suggest otherwise must have an agenda nothing to do with betting.
97 whos the girl on page 2 - i quite like it!!!!
Where’s Yellow Submarine. His take on todays events would be most welcome.
111 hate to say it but LDs were right on that!!!!!!!!!!
Dont tell my Tory friends on here!!!!
Or tim!!!!!!!!!!!
PS where is he, has he been banned?!!!!!!!!!!
re 108 ASOD you’re talking rubbish again. Please explain where d’Hondt comes into STV.
It’s funny how Brown can find £80,000,000 for a referendum on his last minute conversion to the voting system, yet the electorate were denied any say on the Lisbon treaty.
Another shot to the foot Gordon.
How pleased all those labour MP’s who’ve kept him in place must feel now. Still, at least the dole beckons for NP soon to be Ex MP.
Negative Campaigning
Tough on Cheese. Tough on the Causes of Cheese Kraft closes Cadbury factory in Bristol. Mandleson yawns.
Go back to your Constituencies and prepare for defeat!
116 I favour Ave it vote
We have the counting on the night-
then Ave it counts up the seats and if an unfair outcome occurs ie con less than 340 I give extra seats to Con proper election!!!!
115 - He’s not posted since Mike tore him a new one earlier on today
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/02/09/is-brown-really-the-tories-biggest-asset/#comment-1419524
NPoMP - Gordon’s the old trout not you, in case that wasn’t clear on my post!
I think of you more as a professor yaffle.
‘home’ being….. the main resi or the pied…
115. Apparently Mike S bitch slapped “Tim” earlier and he hasn’t been seen since.
117. Don’t forget though that the Lib-Dems also colluded with Brown to stop us having our say on Lisbon. They never learn.
88. “will you be sending all Lib-Dumbs to Labour camps (Mike S excluded of course) “
Ah, secret research has revealed that Mike is in fact a right winger…
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/willheaven/100025505/are-you-a-leftie-iphone-smoothie-or-a-right-wing-blackberry-addict/
112 frank
go play self-righteous somewhere else - numpty
118 bunnco
That would be a brilliant negative campaign for the LDs - truly inspired.
Another MP going
“South Yorkshire Labour MP has announced he will be standing down at the general election.
Jeff Ennis, MP for Barnsley East and Mexborough, said he had made the “very difficult decision” to stand down “for a number of personal reasons”.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/south_yorkshire/8505777.stm
Thought I’d better post Carly Fiorina’s awesome Demon Sheep ad again:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KRY7wBuCcBY&feature=topvideos
(The best bit’s near the end.)
111. GIN, if you demonstrated such perception of the correctness of the principle that Kennedy demonstrated, I do not understand why you feel that standing up for fair votes/PR is not on a par. Suggesting that LD voting for an amendment which the all party electoral reform society (ERS) agreed is the least best option is hitching the LDs to Labour is just daft and illogical.
d’hondt - massive constituencies and prizes are dished out to everyone.
Prick Huhne’s STV proposal for Leeds - massive constituency and prizes are dished out to everyone.
LDs - Mugs. Do Labour’s bidding, then Labour turn around and slap you in the face. Plus ca change. 69 votes is somhow appropriate.
S##t Storm alert!
Labour’s ’secret plan’ to lure migrants
The Government has been accused of pursuing a secret policy of encouraging mass immigration for its own political ends.
The release of a previously unseen document suggested that Labour’s migration policy over the past decade had been aimed not just at meeting the country’s economic needs, but also the Government’s “social objectives”.
The paper said migration would “enhance economic growth” and made clear that trying to halt or reverse it could be “economically damaging”. But it also stated that immigration had general “benefits” and that a new policy framework was needed to “maximise” the contribution of migration to the Government’s wider social aims.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/immigration/7198329/Labours-secret-plan-to-lure-migrants.html
Theres a great new ad.
Brown and Clegg pictured - They stitched us all up over Lisbon and they are at it again.
129 frank
is you surname Harman by any chance ?
Evening all.
(I haven’t had time to read all the comments on the last thread, so maybe this point has already been made - if so, I apologise).
I believe the ‘tombstone’ poster is not what it seems. Here’s my tuppence worth on what might be happening here - pure guesswork, of course.
I don’t think the poster is intended for voters; I think the target audience is primarily Labour politicians and journalists.
This is a game of demented chess. One side makes a move to get an advantage, and the other side tries to block it. Just as, in January, Labour tried (quite successfully) to block off the Conservatives’ policy development, the Conservatives are now doing the same to Labour.
Labour - and in particular Brown - tried to get an advantage by offering so-called ‘free’ care for the elderly. It was never clear how this was to be paid for, and the latest ‘death tax’ proposal (or suggestion, whatever it was) from within the government seems to be an attempt to address that weakness. The Conservatives need to see this off; they cannot let this election become a referendum on nice-to-have-but-in-reality-unaffordable-ideas from Labour. Therefore, they want to force Labour on to the defensive on the costs side, just as Labour wanted to force the Conservatives on to the defensive on the costs of the IHT and tax-breaks for marriage policies. In particular, they want to force Labour to do, or be portrayed as doing, a U-turn amidst disarray and confusion.
Setting up the narrative as ‘Dishonest Labour freebie… Attempt to raise new stealthy ‘death tax’… Labour U-turn in confusion’ is ideal for the Conservatives. The public will probably never see the poster.
I think it will work. And I think we will see repeats of this strategy each time a new policy is presented by the government.
125. Allenbrooke - you sound abit upset. Retreat to a quite room and have a nap. You’ll feel better afterwards.
Negative Campaigning
Vote Yellow. Get Brown Nuff said after tonight’s humiliation. They really just do not learn. The LibDems have tonight just thrown away any Parliamentary slack they might have had.
They were bitch-slapped by Labour tonight harder than OGH smacked-down Tim this morning. Tim’s not been seen since. Perhaps Clegg should follow his lead.
As someone who lives in a country where negative campaigning plays an important part, I must say it is not nice to look.
The campaign has not started officially here, but the president of one party has already called the candidate of another a liar, and that is not even dirty yet!
Things can be pretty dirty here, with people uncovering affairs, babies, etc. I understand it is important for the parties, but it makes people feel put off by all that, saying they’re all the same, and not knowing what each candidate really stands for. Things will remain the same here, because vote is compulsory, so why would they stop, if feeling put off doesn’t mean turnout will be lower?
127 - Either the MP is really sick or he’s about to be fingered for something.
129. We’re just weeks before a general election. And Brown has always been a road block to voting reform and is only throwing this sop to the Lib-Dems because he thinks it will curry favour with them if theres a hung parliament. From the outside the whole thing just looks so bad and cynical. I would have thought the correct position for the Lib-Dems to take at this point in the Parliament would be to abstain and tell Labour that if your serious about voting reform, put it in your mainfesto and we’ll talk if theres a hung parliament. For someone like Brown to Fiddle about with the voting system at this stage just look kind of ridiculous….
Frank
Define ‘fair vote’.
135 frank
grooming your thing is it ?
131,I hope you right oracle,this subject came out a few months back.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/lawandorder/6418456/Labour-wanted-mass-immigration-to-make-UK-more-multicultural-says-former-adviser.html
140. Per JS Mill - “one man, one vote, one vote, one value”.
10.
‘re 95 Sally it’s not my electoral map and just please answer the question what would you use as a basis for a multi-member constituency?’
Erm. Why should I?
My point was that your indignation, on the basis that every MP who objects to this LD proposal is anti democratic whilst you are the sole guardians of freedom, was silly.
It was a silly map.
Are you REALLY REALLY saying the LDs [or any party] are neutral when it comes to drawing up boundaries? That the LDs sat around saying ‘ow but that might not be fair to the Tories’. That their proposals would be beyond reproach?
If not, then your indigation is silly.
If yes, then why don’t we just get rid of all the boundary authorities and hand it over to the LDs?
142,you=your
I think to really get a flavour of negative campaigning, we have to look local. To that end, I keep an occasional eye on the wonderful site
http://www.thestraightchoice.org/browse.php
which documents party election leaflets.
I haven’t seen too many leaflets about incumbent expenses so far - but this will surely be the obvious starting point for almost all challengers.
Define ‘fair vote’.
One man, one vote; one vote, one value…
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/immigration/7198329/Labours-secret-plan-to-lure-migrants.html
“Destroy the forces of conservatism”
“Transform Britain”
“New Britain”
MV Empire Windrush and Blair’s companies all called Windrush1, Windrush2 etc.
147. Ein Volk, ein Reich…
141. Another post that demonstrates your clear command of matters political. Distateful as well as irrelavant to the site. Well done. Do you want to go for a hat-trick?
114. I imagine YS is holding his head in his hands at his own party’s utter stupidity.
139 - I do not support AV, but just how is Brown trying to “fiddle the electoral system”?
The vote was to put a referendum to the people - if the people don’t like the suggested change, they don’t support it.
These Halifax ads based on a radio station are ABYSMAL.
Really, hideous.
121/123 LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL
LDs = finished for all time!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
147 one person (no sexism here) one vote as long as its con!!! Cheerio clare curtis-thomas-tansley etc con gain sefton central…
SallyC - the Boundary Commission would draw up the constituencies so you would not need to rely on impartial LDs.
151 - Indeed. The only LD, other than OGH to show any common sense at all imo.
Frank
Per JS MILL, why is the prick Huhne proposing Glasgow, a city of 500000 people get 6 reps and the Orkneys get 1, despite a population of 30000.
One man, one vote; one vote, one value…
152 tabman = LOL, we dont like referendums lets have a fair GE and LDs can be irrelevant just as they have been since 1906….
Negative Campaigning
Taxi! Rows of shiny black limousines circling around Parliament Square
!52 - I should have added, as we’re consistently told by certain people that the British People don’t want any new-fangled voting system, then they’re sure to vote against it, aren’t they.
Actually I’m thinking perhaps Nick Clegg has pulled of a masterstroke today.
After today is he more likely to get the support of Labour supporters in LD/Con marginals, which he needs to hold onto the likes of Eastleigh?
I think he’s got the support of those Labour supporters today.
134.”I don’t think the poster is intended for voters; I think the target audience is primarily Labour politicians and journalists.”
Richard, the poster made the ITN news at 10 tonight.
Negative Campaiging
Trust us to deliver Picture of Mandleson mailing a Postal Vote having flogged-off the RoyalMail to foreigners.
158 - ah, the Royal We - must be that of King George III (he had porphyria and his wee was blue).
32 - I hope there’s a large majority in favour of saving general election night. At the last election only five constituencies started counting on Friday: Argyll, Berwick, Hexham, St Ives, Skipton.
http://www.politicsresources.net/area/uk/ge05/dectimes.htm
161. But in most of those marginals the Labour vote has already been squeezed down to a residuum.
149. Eine Stimme…
152 The keyword is “trying”. Succeeding is something else.
155 Frank, they LDs proposal have ‘very nicely’ grouped them together as THEY think appropriate.
Have you read your own proposals?
“To lose one councillor, Mr Salmond, is unfortunate. To lose two, is careless.”
http://andrewrunning.blogspot.com/2010/02/snp-glasgow-councillor-alex-dingwall.html
Negative Campaigning
Plain piece of Paper Brown ‘airbrushed’ out of the campaign.
166 - Not all. Check out this thread.
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/01/27/how-many-of-these-will-be-blue-when-the-results-come-in/
astateofdenmark - i don’t recall JS MIll saying that Huhne is a prick, but i haven;t read everything that the great liberal philosopher has written so I may have missed it. I imagine that he was trying to provide some examples to help understand how STV would operate. It is likely that certain islands - such as IOW - would be designated as a single seat. All systems must have some flexibility and Hulne was showing the range available
A terrible decision by Clegg, not every liberal wnats to be seen as a quasi labour voter in the event it is close between Tories and Labour.
Abstaining and saying we will talk after the election if appropriate about other forms of PR as commented above made a lot more sense.
Another secret deal that labour will renege on after an election? Clegg is naive enough to fall for it sadly.
124. ScottP. My shiny new “free” Blackberry arrived in yesterday’s post - from Virgin. It’s great, except for one thing. It doesn’t work. Sat in my own house in Birmingham it struggles hopelessly to connect to the internet. I’ll have to send it back. A great disappointment.
The one plus is that the battery is the same as for my old battered Crackberry that tragically died over the weekend. The connection port to recharge the old Crackberry has fallen apart. But, with a new battery, like Lazarus, the old Crackberry is revitalised! So I am using the shiny new Blackberry as a battery charger for the old Crackberry.
My old Crackberry is connected via 02 network and works fine. So I’m keeping it. I will buy a stand alone Blackberry battery charger and keep the old trooper in service for a while longer.
So let’s kill the fatted calf. We have to celebrate and be glad because this Crackberry of mine was dead and is alive again; was lost and is found. My Prodigal Crackberry.
164 por what por what pour me another?! got to be good if the pee is blue con gain nottingham
157. Most countries, even those with PR systems retain single-member seats for outlying areas…
166 - In many of those constituencies the Lib Dems advanced thanks to former Tory voters rather than a Labour squeeze. If the spectre of a Brownian decade is too much, and exacerbated by the fear that a Lib Dem bloc could keep Brown in, they are more likely to leave the Dim Libs.
I suggest that in Lib/Con marginals that there are FAR more soft tories to lose than Brown fans to gain.
Negative campaigning.
Pic of Browm’s head sticking out of a wicker basket.
“Where am I taking you all and what are we doing in this handbasket?”
169. Even under FPTP, parties suggest their preferred option to the BC. But the BC - subject to appeal - make the final determination. Where is the problem with that?
134. Interesting theory. You could make a case that influencing the mood in the westminster village is just as important as doing so in the country, and much more cost effective.
The chang in stance from the Tories this week is noticeable. I think it’s the first time (I can remember) of them employing Labour’s/Brown’s tactic of publishing and then demolishing a misrepresented opposition policy, thus forcing the oppoent to address the lie. It’s a pretty low way to behave, but if that’s the way Brown wants it ..
Negative Campaigning
True Grit Picture of Brown walking along unsalted road
[That's enough. Night all]
Me at 137 - thanks for the comment, which in more serious mode I agree with. Someone upthread (antifrank?) made a useful distinction between critical campaigning (which attacks an opponent’s policies - why not?) and dirty campaigning (the illegitimate babies and the like). We don’t have much of the latter, but there’s a lot of stuff where anyone in the know has to conclude that the authors knew their claims to be false (dodgy barcharts, distortions and so on). Parties need to be wary, as voters are suspicious both of the target and the accuser.
Do people honestly think slashing public spending will help in a fragile economy. Forget the arguments about why, what and who caused the recession. Seriously, cutting spending, with 0.1% growth, why? With lowest debt % GDP levels in Europe for a mjor economy. Surely the argument is ideological rather than sensible?
It is being reported that when OGH ripped tim a new one, he went a nice shade of scarlet. I think it is called “Cameron Blush”
177 - Making the electoral system even more grossly in favour of the Western Isles and north Wales would not be positive.
If i understand AV right and it works to force a basically binary choice then the LDs must think that in that situation el Torees will be squeezed out leaving just Lab-Lib. I think they’re insane if they think the soft Tory will stay with them under a binary choice like that. Maybe i’m not understanding.
re 144 Sally C - well because you claim that the LD proposals were solely designed to get Huhne elected. That is utter nonsense and you know it.
And I’ve never said that political parties should draw up boundaries, nor will they if we have STV. And if we have STV then it won’t tend to matter because it’s approximately PROPORTIONAL, that’s the idea of it.
But then, of course, I forgot, you’re the Tory who’d rather that the Tories had 1 seat and sod all influence in the Scottish parliament.
Negative Campaigning
Pic of a steaming Brown Dog Poo
Underneath “another huge Brown mess to clean up”
187 (cont) meant to say “soft Tory vote”
152 Why?
Its all a con because his own MPs don’t want to vote him down near an election and so they keep quiet. They do a dance even though they don’t believe the steps are right just because they know it won’t go anywhere. What’s more, the man who conducts the orchestra [of fiddles] knows that, otherwise he wouldn’t have started the music.
185 - Actually Tim was doing a Grayling.
184 hahahahahaha are you gabble in disguise?!
lets cut public spending by 50% and stop all state handouts!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
175 Lazaberry
184 - You are confusing the deficit with the net debt.
185/192
188.I live with STV, it serves parties not local voters.
Can a member of The Borg please explain to me why AV automatically means a Lab/Lib alliance?
I thought recent polling showed LD voters splitting evenly, or even favouring Con to Lab?
If the desire to Get Rid Of Brown is out there (and it is), then AV will facilitate that in spades?
I don’t understand where you get this notion that AV is good for Brown. Given his predilection for Doing The Wrong Thing, surely its obvious that this is exactly the worng optionf or him?
On negative campaigning - Gord wrote the book on going negative against your enemies. If Tone saw politics as Good V Evil, Brown sees it as Them Vs Us. And anything goes. Always has. The Tories should go as nasty as they can (though NOT personal and certainly NOT directed at Browns family) Gordon Brown has had it coming to him for decades.
187 - Labour are also making the mistake of assuming it will always mean they get the Lib Dem second preferences.
In fact, all it means is that the ‘get rid of the scum’ party will win every time and we’ll end up with absolutely ludicrous majorities.
AV is a dream for a lover of landslides.
197 is that the really successful hollywood voting system lol!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
(ie i agree with you)
175 - Get an iPhone or the Nokia n900.
They are the mutts nutts
200 ‘get rid of the scum’ party
yes ok lets ave it 06.05.2010 labour = 0 seats cheerio!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
with the lib dems sucking up to labour,the 16% club is open to new members,only 2 members so far,me and mr day
ave it,the lady on front of the newspaper,is Joanne Cash Tory candidate for Westminster North
Greece is where all the action is at the moment
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/markets/europe/article7021233.ece
Negative Campaigning
I couldn’t sleep.
Picture of steaming brown turd The soft Labour vote
hat-tip to 190 above.
198 - It’s not good for Brown. But he’s been told by the ‘everyone still hates the Tories really’ group (The Labour Parliamentary Party) that it is.
And he can’t be bothered to do his sums. Which is what got us in this mess in the first place.
198 BAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA! Seven of nine is coming to get you!!!!!!!
We democratic Con voters dont like dodgy unfair voting systems - we want proper voting: come first, get 37% thats enough!
A very satisfactory outcome to the voting reform debate, I think - not so much in terms of outcome, of course, because as has been pointed out here, it is not likely to happen.
But extremely useful in puting down markers among the three main parties.
The Conservatives have shown themselves to be concerned only with their own interests. It is only FPTP that can give them an overall majority of seats for a distinct minority of votes. Naturally, they want to keep it.
The Labour Party has shown itself cynical and devious - otherwise they would have supported the Lib Dem amendment in favour of STV. It is clear that they do not really want fair elections, where each elector can have a say in who is elected.
The Liberal Democrats, having pushed Labour into coming out against FPTP, then showed them up for the unprincipled rogues that they are. They have a worthy leader in Gordon Brown.
So from the Lib Dem point of view, they used the first vote to make a clear distinction between themselves and Cameron´s Conservatives; and they then did the same with the second vote and Labour.
That ought to put an end to the Tory love bombing campaign, shouldn´t it?
197. How’s that ? - more voters get the councillor they want under STV than under FPTP.
114 of the Tories’ top 200 target seats are now scheduled to count on the night:
http://bit.ly/bKEYBv
“184.Do people honestly think slashing public spending will help in a fragile economy.”
It’ll be done for us if the AAA rating goes and the interest on the borrowing gets jacked up to the stratosphere.
Wild example, if you had interest payments of 30 billion and it gets cranked up to 60 billion then you need to cut 30 billion.
Alternative is cutting 10 billion to show the rich people on yachts you’re serious and prevent the interest rates getting cranked up.
204 really??????!!!!!
Yes come on con gain everything!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
161 - You’re forgetting that Labour voters don’t actually pay attention to the news, especially the political news.
So bloated is the public sector that the national payroll vote extends to every teacher, nursel, bin-man, post-man, health and safety operative, traffic warden etc
Clegg will tonight lose the support of the middle classes who read the Times/Telegraph but thought that the local Dim-Lib candidate is ’such a jolly nice fellow’.
Greece has massive public unrest
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/europe/article7021278.ece
204.Come up North and show me LD sucking up to Labour.
210 no, you get noc everywhere instead of proper one party rule!!!
(no offence
)
Frank
One man, one vote; one vote, one value…
Let’s review that statement. One man, one vote. Quite clear don’t you think? Each individual get’s a single vote.
One vote, one value. Again very clear. Each vote should have the same value.
So I ask again, why does Huhne (who is a prick) think the voters of the Orkneys are worth double those of voters in Glasgow? Are they the new aristocracy? Vote LD and be promoted up the social scale?
How is that ‘fair’. Why does ‘fair’ seem to be coterminous with ‘advantageous to the LDs?’
If you’re so desperate for STV, why not propose sensible constituencies? eg, Brighton on it’s own. East Sussex on it’s own. London boroughs on their own. etc.
Rod Crosby posted a ERS link which showed such a system would pass the proportional test. Yet LDs go for the crazy option where everyone gets a prize. Wonder why?
Rod C - Any chance you could repaste that ERS pdf of option A-C?
195. Of course the deficit is highest this year per GDP, we depended on finacial sector, whilst stocks fell by between 28-60% worldwide, we will bear the brunt. As we will get the rewards in a rally.
There will of course be a larger structural deficit due to a smaller financial sector. Whatever sentiment people may have about bankers or finance, the old boy will run the UK economy for years to come. Strangle the Uk by cutting the dficit and we cut the cash cow
184. rik
“Do people honestly think slashing public spending will help in a fragile economy. Forget the arguments about why, what and who caused the recession. Seriously, cutting spending, with 0.1% growth, why? With lowest debt % GDP levels in Europe for a mjor economy. Surely the argument is ideological rather than sensible?”
Except we haven’t got the lowest debt, we’ve got the highest when you include personal and corporate debt.
The debt is only one half of the story, the deficitneeds to be compared with other countries as well.
And the only reason that the UK public debt is still lower than other countries is that previous governments did not run such huge deficits as this one has.
Anyone who says don’t cut the deficit now needs to explain when and how they would do so, taking into account the longer it is left the bigger and longer lasting the cuts will be.
And yes slashing public spending will help the economy if it is non productive spending which is cut thus allowing moeny to be used elsewhere.
198 “I don’t understand where you get this notion that AV is good for Brown”
Isn’t AV best for the two parties with the largest core votes?
216 all about bradford being in the south
re 197 Please explain how it serves parties? Do the party apparatchiks look over your shoulder and tell you how to order the candidates? No other voting system gives the voters such control.
A disappointing miscalculation by Clegg over AV that can’t possibly provide his party with any benefit. I wonder if Huhne was the driving force behind this; he’s been forever popping up to make the case and looks like a zealot. I suppose the Lib Dems’ one consolation will be that at tomorrow’s PMQs, as at last week’s, Gordon will be placing his big, fat, kissable lips firmly upon Mr Clegg’s trim buttocks (’I know your party is consistent unlike the party opposite’). Or maybe he won’t after getting his own way. A sorry spectacle.
210. 75% (2007) versus 51% (2003)
and the vast majority (>90%) under STV come away from the pooling booth with something, having influenced the election…
241 - Nobody knows. “..will lose” you say..Whatever happened to MAY. How successful at the lottery?
216 - How long before we see similar unrest in Britain post-election….civil servants already balloting to strike.
161. Wrong wrong wrong… poll after poll shows people, when forced to choose between a lab or con government they swing behind the tories and poll after poll shows people believe its time for change. Today the lib dems have shown themselves as neither the change nor on the right side of the forced choice opinion. They will suffer in these lib-con marginals as their voters go blue.
225 not worried about ‘having influenced the election’ - all about winning the seat 37% is enough - keeps LDs in their place…
216,frank,I live up north and it’s your parliamentary party thats getting you this,
VOTE YELLOW GET BROWN.
The Tombstone is very good, in particular it will appeal to older voters among the lower middle and respectable working classes, key swing voters. People to whom £20,000 is a lot of money.
227 should have started: 215 -…..
226 ‘241′ all about forecasting the future - I forecast LD wipeout 2010!!!
218 Huhne is simply another trougher out to rig the electoral system, so that he can remain in his cushy job, and continue to fleece the long suffering taxpayer for the cost of shiny trouser presses and other gee-gaws.
Venal corruption is the word that springs immediately to mind this evening.
“Rod C - Any chance you could repaste that ERS pdf of option A-C?”
Sorry, I haven’t the foggiest what you are referring to…
234 or you could say ‘Huhne is simply a cun*’
astateofdenmark - if Lab and Tories ( and your goodself - I don;t know your ;political affiliation if you have one ) accept STV I will also accept any boundaries based upon STV principles. If it means the Orkney’s are included with Wick, so be it.
222,I wish it was,I heard it’s warmer down there
and I can get rid of me flat cap and me whippet 
I have never read so much fake righteous indignation and claptrap as has been posted on the last couple of threads from the upholders of democracy - not - Conservative posters on here . If they actually believed in a form of democracy that was not biased in their favour I might have more respect for them .
I note also their bleating cries for the Conservatives to go into a negative campaign mode . Well that is no surprise as their party does not have a single positive policy it can sell to the voters of this country .
Meanwhile an unusual defection Glasgow SNP councillor Alex Dingwall ( Maryhiil Kelvin ward ) has defected to the LibDems .
221 - Which is what makes Clegg getting into bed with Brown so utterly bizarre.
How Paddy Ashdown must sometimes wish he was 20 years younger. Or how much better for the Lib Dems if Charlie was in a position to be a suitable leader.
The comments on the AV vote tonight are crazy. It is a vote on something that will not happen for no good purpose. For those who think this will make more than a jot’s worth of difference to how people vote - well. My wife who is a normal sort of voter (vaguely interested) was bored by the news on the vote. Her comment “what a waste of time, with an election close”.
To those nurds of what ever party who think this will sink the Lib Dems, Labour or the Conservtaives all I say is - get real and get a life!
188 Chris. Are you devoid or a sense of humour, satire, exaggeration?
I was being a bit facetious about Huhne [though the way he put things together had the potential to help him] - the point I was making -
and this will be for the last time —-
was, that to come on here and suggest that everyone who voted against the LD proposals must be undemocratic was ridculous because your position HAS to be on the basis the the new constituency grouping put forward by the LDs propsals were entirely fair.
Since it seems you accept that the LDs are not neutral,well, folks were entitled to be agin ‘em without being tyrants.
And WHAT has that VERY simple point got to do with Scotland?
Since I never post about Scotland politics, you can know s0d all about my views and so that comment managed the feat of being sillier than the rest.
230. Not sure I understand your point. Examples please of LDs sucking up to Labour, I too am based in the North.
Isn’t there a story about how Lyndon Johnson in a close election race early in his career smeared his opponent as a man who was rather too friendly with his livestock?
“That wont work” said LBJ’s aide “nobody is going to believe he’s a pig f**ker”.
“No, but lets make him deny it anyway” replied LBJ and went on to very narrowly win.
The situation with the death tax is that its the sort of thing that people will believe Labour could do and the more they deny it the more their previous lies can be highlighted.
‘British Jobs For British Workers’ anyone?
183-Nick-Totally agree, the difference between there and here is that when people there say “they are all the same” they usually have the option of not voting at all. Here they have to vote no matter what. They can vote for no one, but few choose these option.(about 7 or 8% of those who voted in the last presidential election). I believe most people think this means they are throwing their vote away.
No contest mio
http://johnrentoul.independentminds.livejournal.com/276113.html
238 - Flat caps are a must down here, at the Point-to-Points at least.
EU President’s secret bid for economic power
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/eu-presidents-secret-bid-for-economic-power-1894549.html
239 TWAT
“EU President’s secret bid for economic power
The new President of the European Council, Herman Van Rompuy, is using the financial crisis sweeping the eurozone to launch an audacious grab for power over national budgets, leaked documents reveal.”
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/eu-presidents-secret-bid-for-economic-power-1894549.html
doe’s every one remember this of chris huhne from our martin
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_zpMKqKFHmEg/Sm2m-Imt2DI/AAAAAAAAA2w/AyYafdNaCcQ/S660/Huhne+picture.jpg
237 - Frank
There you go. To achieve an aim in politics requires coalitions. To build coalitions is the art of politics. The bigger the aim, the harder it is.
So, if you ever get to speak to Huhne, you might advise him that publishing his frankly inflammatory consituency proposals as a schedule to an amendment, is the crassest of political mistakes.
If it were indeed Huhne’s idea and I would put good money on it, it is his fault you got 69ed.
239 - My opposition is nothing to do with ‘upholding democracy’ it is that this ‘debate’ has been a bizarre sham which has absolutely NOTHING to do with Parliamentary reform.
As I’ve suggested upthread, a proper debate on electoral reform would be a good thing. But Brown trying to change the rules to save his fat arse (sorry, newly trim arse) at the last minute or at least to curry favour with the more gullible parts of the third party is ridiculous and should have been treated with contempt by the very people shafted by Labour THIRTEEN YEARS AGO!
Instead, Clegg has effectively voted for an electoral system that would not help the Lib Dems in the SLIGHTEST!
A bonkers day in the Commons.
248/250- Snap!
238
its cold here too cos the gas has gone up under labour 
Labour/LDs/Huhne = ***ts
GN all
Glad to see Mark Senior back.
Now tim has gone, we needed another Labour supporter for balance
re 242 Sally apologies I’m confusing you with Christina D. You concede that STV is more democratic than AV or FPTP? The argument about boundaries, and I can’t see why you cannot grasp this, is immaterial. If the system is proportional, if you get 40% of the votes, you get 40% of the seats. Under FPTP or AV where you draw the lines - and whoever draws them - matters very much indeed
From the BBC:
“The amount of pension likely to be bought by someone investing for their retirement has fallen by 72% in the past decade, according to Moneyfacts.
Putting £100 a month, for 20 years, into a balanced managed fund would have produced £103,914 10 years ago.
A similar 20-year policy cashed in this year would have provided just £40,749.
Combined with a fall in annuity rates, the retirement income provided by this savings strategy would have dropped from £8,998 a year to just £2,542.”
The tax increase on pensions must have seemed a good idea back in 1997 after all nobody would notice the effects for years. They notice them now.
Gordon Brown the pension thief.
249 A post that sums up the intelligence and debating skills of the typical Conservative poster on here tonight .
252. I am glad we agree. So I assume you are in favour of PR subject to Hulne having nothing to say or do about it.
‘Cameron’s cutie’ wins constituency catfight
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/news/camerons-cutie-wins-constituency-catfight-1894548.html
Mark - 249 - i trully understand your motivation to respond, but responding to the smiley face simply encourages him. Hard choice.
Is Clegg now looking for number 31 on the Labour benches?
I’ve been too busy to follow the the AV stuff tday but I’ve previously said that I will never vote for a party that supports it. It’s the worst possible system that entrenches an undemocratic mandate.
So which parties does that leave me with, and can Guildford afford to lose a lib dem vote as they look to have done tonight?
It’s a form of STV or nothing if there is to be a change, and I, for one, will never be conned. How stupid do these MPs have to be? Do they really have such little foresight?
202. Eagles. I’ve just had a look at the Nokia n900 on line. It looks incredible.
The thing is, I only want and need a few functions from a mobile device. A phone, fast internet access and emails. That’s it. Oh, and a calendar/diary and places to write notes. And an alarm clock. And calculator.
Basically, what my Crackberry does. Faster internet access would be good though.
260
No Frank, I’m trying to advise. This is obviously very important to you LDs, which makes me wonder why you have made a pigs ear.
As to PR. I couldn’t care less as long as there is no list system or massive constituencies. There are more important points: elective dictatorship, unelected lords, centralisation of power, scrutiny of EU directives, Parliament Act, Royal Prerogative.
Next to these pissing about with the Commons voting system is a sideshow. What’s it matter who comprises the executive in an elective dictatorship?
241 “To those nurds of what ever party who think this will sink the Lib Dems, Labour or the Conservtaives all I say is - get real and get a life!”
You’re right it probably won’t effect anything but it’s an indication that come a crunch the LDs always seem to nestle under Labour’s wing rather than go for them. Just seems odd to me.
“can Guildford afford to lose a lib dem vote as they look to have done tonight?”
Sure… how many Labour votes are there in Guildford?
Seriously, the quiality of debate in the Commons was streets ahead of what we’ve endured on PB, and I can’t believe I’ve said that…
264. This is merely a stepping stone. The LDs want STV and moved an amendment tonight in support of. As Mao put it ( I paraphrase), the longest journey begins with a single step. I’ve been banging on about PR for 30+ years and even the AV referendum is a greater step than has been achieved in that time.
210.”197. How’s that ? - more voters get the councillor they want under STV than under FPTP.”
Err, no, that is called spin.
Chris,
Absolutely no worries about mistaking me for Chris. Easily done I suspect.
What I can’t see is why you can’t see that the LDs proposal had contituency groupings in it and that must mean it’s already past the point of neutrality, regardless of the voting system applicable.
I suggest we agree to disagree.
Set the squabbling boys an example PtP would be proud of and we can collect our gold stars in the morning
With all the bad economic news announced today - worse than expected retail and trade figures and job losses at Cadburys, Vauxhall and BMW-Mini - I don’t think this has been highlighted yet:
From the BBC:
“A pharmaceutical giant is to close one of its research units in Essex with the loss of about 380 jobs.
One third of the workforce is to be made redundant after projects for pain relief, anxiety and depression drugs end at GlaxoSmithKline in Harlow.”
The loss of high value added R&D jobs is very bad news.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2010/feb/10/rat-on-a-sinking-ship
266. Wholesale constitutional change. Now you are talking.
Tonight’s bizarre antics serve well to reinforce my own firm belief that the Liberal Democrats are just a very silly passing curiosity in British politics and, if taking a long term view as I do, they are certainly no serious threat whatsoever to we true liberals in the Liberal Party.
264. It’s not a vote for AV - it’s a vote for a referendum on AV. You can still vote which ever way you want (if it ever takes place).
259,we love you to mark
257. To be fair ChrisA, where you draw the boundaries matters under STV as well; the more 3- or even 4- seater constituencies there are, the more the system favours larger parties, and makes the system less proportional. 5/6 members is probably optimal.
And of course, as I am sure you well know, it is not truly proportional, and an overall majority is possible on anything from 40% of the popular vote (though of course the ability to turn 40% of first preferences into an overall majority is very dependent on your party being able to attract 2nd and 3rd preferences from other parties).
264 - Looks that way.
Personally I’ve followed the changes in Scotland and Wales with interest. I’m halfway to convinced that some kind of hybrid proportional system could be something to look at in the future.
Of course, the Brownian conversion to reform, and the decision to go for AV, is an insult to Britain.
In regard to Scotland and Wales’ regional assemblies, it is good that Labour have followed fine and long-standing Tory policy of trying things on the Celtic fringe first
It seems to have had the same impace on Labour’s long-term popularity in the areas that it had on the Tories’ too.
278 edit *an overall majority is possible on anything from 40% upwards of the FIRST PREFERENCE vote*
270. You can’t count, eh?
75% (STV) compared to 51% (FPTP)
Hint: the bigger number was the first one I mentioned…
275.King Peladon of Peladon - by the way, where does Micheal Meadowcroft currently reside in party political terms these days?
239.”Meanwhile an unusual defection Glasgow SNP councillor Alex Dingwall ( Maryhiil Kelvin ward ) has defected to the LibDems .”
Err, not a surprise at all if you follow Scottish politics in any detail. Where was this SNP councillor going to go instead, Labour?
249 You need to be careful AVE IT.
Not everyone will understand that is merely an acronym used in place of a rude word [standing for Totally Warranted Abusive Taunt].
re 271 OK it was stupid of the LDs to suggest constituencies as it would be seen to be done partially, although I suspect it was not. I imgaine it was just to provide a worked example as what STV would look like. Personally I would favour a geographical approach rather than the Irish one of 3 or 4 member constituencies where you try and maximise your seats by choosing 3 members where you’re stronger and 4 members where you’re weaker. But all that is for the Boundary Commissions.
240.”How Paddy Ashdown must sometimes wish he was 20 years younger. Or how much better for the Lib Dems if Charlie was in a position to be a suitable leader.”
David, we had Cameron doing a Tony impersonation on the back of Ashdown’s memoirs at last week’s PMQ’s, tonight on C4 news we had Paddy himself saying it. And still the Libdems voted with Brown tonight. Priceless.
283. “Where was this SNP councillor going to go instead, Labour?”
The one who defected last week did.
Well guys and gals, the electoral reform bill has been passed, and now the horse trading begins.
Expect hiccups along the way plus all the shenanigans with the Lords. This in the end might have to be guillotined with the Parliament Act.
There could be lengthy delays, and in the process we could still looking at a June 3rd election.
I got my money down at 20/1 a couple of months back.
I think you can still get 10/1 at Stan James and Lads. Looks good value to me. I might have some more.
Fill yer boots.
re 278 see my 285 I was just trying to get the point across. We both know that you could so gerrymander a FPTP the post election whereby a party gaining 45% of the votes could win 90% of the seats.
“But then, of course, I forgot, you’re the Tory who’d rather that the Tories had 1 seat and sod all influence in the Scottish parliament.”
Voters first, party second. How difficult is that for your to understand?
250 Will this be gordos excuse to miss PMQs today ?
ChristinaD. Having a long term perspective in attaining goals is important. Both the LDs and those who have no political affiliation vis-a-vis PR ( including ERS/Charter88/VFC etc ) believe voting for a referendum first and AV second - pro temps - is the least worst option. Time will tell.
re 288 no it hasn’t. Still has third reading, all the Lords stages, considerations of Lords’ amendments and any consequent ping-ponging to go yet.
264 - A red rag to say the words ’stepping stone’ to me I’m afraid, I won’t vote for any suckers who believe it.
276 - I see no distinction, to give support for a referendum on such an appalling system is beyond the pale for me.
285. Irish constituencies are almost entirely based on county boundaries ChrisA.
re 290 Voters first, party second. How difficult is that for your to understand?
Christina, I’m afraid that I don’t understand what you’re getting at.
Frank at 282 “King Peladon of Peladon - by the way, where does Micheal Meadowcroft currently reside in party political terms these days?”
He’s a Liberal Democrat. But you already knew that and so I’m not really sure what point you’re trying to make. Everyone has a right to change their mind. I mean seven years ago I was a member of the Conservative Party. Now I’m a Liberal Party member.
293
OK fair enough, but the main obstacle was cleared tonight.
But as you say there are still several stages left, which you must agree do make June 3rd much more likely.
I mean you how slow and obstinate these Lords can be.
10/1 is good value to me.
Chris A. It grouped them together. I remember clearly those with which my own constitiency were grouped.
So it was silly and invited rejection but maybe they wanted that, as a purely politically move - ie we are the fairest of them all.
can the lib dems explain this,
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/apr/19/liberaldemocrats-donors-corruption
or this,
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/health/article2492984.ece
288 - If you think the Bill has passed you need to re-read your notes on Parliamentary procedure.
Chance of this going through before an election = (very very) slim to none
294. So what is your alternative?
Negative advertising?
http://dailyelection.files.wordpress.com/2010/02/labour-party-advert-economy.jpg
“We laughed when Gordon Brown became prime minister, but we’re not laughing now.”
297. Micheal M is not just a LD - not even an M&S LD - he was adamant at the time of the Lib/SDP merger that he would have nothing to do with the merged party. He has changed his view - very radically. I don’t beleive that there is that much that separates the LDs from the LP and I think Michael illustrates this very well.
267.Alan, I was being cheeky about the choice of left leaning parties in Scottish politics. No surprises about some SNP defections there just now though.
290. “Voters first, party second”. That’s what STV does, Christina.
It helps get rid of the “monkey with a Red/Blue/Yellow rosette always gets in here” factor.
At the 2007 STV council elections, did the person you gave your “1″ to on the ballot paper get elected as a councillor, or not?
re 295 indeed, but in the olden days there were considerably bigger constituencies - 9 seats with 7+ members in 1923, no seats with more than 5 members since 1947 and only 3 and 4 member seats. If you haven’t read it I’d heartily recommend Taylor and Johnston’s Geography of Elections.
296.No Chris A, you don’t seem to understand why I oppose STV so passionately. PR disconnects me as a voter, and as an activist. I love politics first and party second. I would rather my party had to fight harder under FPTP in Scotland if it meant that I was closer as a voter to my politicians, and real local activism on the ground remained local. Its that simple.
302 - I said it earlier, a form of STV or nothing. FPTP is much better than AV as it isn’t a con job on the voters so, in the meantime, I’ll vote for it to stay.
For the record, I am firmly a FPTP girl.
Now I have to go to sleep to look nice for the TV cameras tomorrow. Not showing live [or even tomorrow]. Not telling when or where. [Only a bit part anyway].
Night
308. Christina - i understand your motivation, but why should a majority of the electorate have to endure the policies of a party that enjoys a minority of votes cast?
re 308 Christina I shan’t give up trying to convert you, but we’ll call it an end to hostilities for the night.
You support a strong candidate in FPTP and wish to give him all the assistance you can?
You can still do that in STV. You could, say, if you lived in Glasgow give all your support/campaigning effort to the candidate local to Pollokshields rather than Maryhill if you wished, and if that candidate was strong and popular elsewhere throughout the city then he would be likely to get elected first count over the surplus with the excess going to help other not quite so popular candidates. It’s a no brainer for me I’m afraid.
re 312 and also if the local party gave instructions for its supporters to number the candidates in a particular way to try and get the maximum number elected you could tell the voters on the doorstep when you’re canvassing them to support your preferred candidate first because of his outstanding qualities etc. What more control of politics over party could you get than that?
183 Nick Palmer MP
I agree with your distinctions - but there is nothing intrinsically wrong with an “honest” character attack ad, given that leadership is obviously an important attribute for a potential leader! For example, McCain’s famous “celebrity” ad was perhaps petty, but perfectly fair - and got an awful lot of press coverage.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oHXYsw_ZDXg
A more important point to come out of your post - why do so many people confuse me with antifrank? It is truly bizarre.
10-1 are hopeless odds for a June election.
June 3rd GE means Brown driving to Buckingham Palace on Friday 7th May - literally on the same day as the Local Election results are coming out.
That would be a disastrous media narrative for Labour.
Realistic odds are 50-1.
This Bill makes no difference - if the Conservatives win they cancel the referendum anyway.
309. “I said it earlier, a form of STV or nothing. FPTP is much better than AV as it isn’t a con job on the voters so, in the meantime, I’ll vote for it to stay.”
I’ve been pondering that question myself over the last few days, and I’ve come to the heavy-hearted conclusion that if I was forced to choose between FPTP and AV in a referendum, I’d go for AV. I think the Lib Dems would be mad to settle for AV in a deal with Labour, because it doesn’t get them or us any closer to proportionality, but I suppose the flip-side of that is it doesn’t necessarily take us any further away from the goal of PR either. I was quite struck by what Chris Huhne said on Channel 4 News that at least under AV people could vote honestly for what they really wanted without worrying about letting their least favourite candidate/party in.
I might change my mind again on further reflection, but I certainly don’t take the view of ‘STV or nothing’ - STV is the best system by miles, but just about any form of PR would be a massive advance on where we currently stand.
306.”It helps get rid of the “monkey with a Red/Blue/Yellow rosette always gets in here” factor.”
Alan,
Just remind how that one works again?? Don’t you mean I want the system that makes sure more of my yellow rosettes get in here by default. Lets be honest about. PR in Scotland gives us coalitions galore, no one loses anymore. So less responsibility, less accountability to the voter, and less need to bother working the local patch with leaflets and activists.
Lets just remember how much doorstepping was down in the last Euro elections. Better still, just check out the threads here and note those that complained of seeing virtually no on the ground campaigning. The parties used the Royal Mail, and we got how many leaflets from them? I live in a very rural area as it is, so I have a pretty good idea of what STV looks like for the locals, but for Westminster as well?
Overnight counting.
The amendment to the Bill could actually have the opposite effect. It will be interesting to see how many Returning Officers are actually annoyed about losing the flexibility, and only conform to the law to a minimal extent. There may be even fewer overnight declarations.
311 - there’s no such thing as a perfect system. I support FPTP because I think it’s the least worst system available.
317. “PR in Scotland gives us coalitions galore, no one loses anymore.”
Well, except the Tories, quite a lot.
Alan’s right about STV - it’s the system that transfers maximum power from the political parties to the voter. It maintains the constituency link, and it’s also reasonably proportional (although ironically not quite as proportional as pure list PR). So it ticks far more boxes than any other system that’s yet been devised.
318 - locally elected councillors in many places have passed motions in favour of election night counting, so this isn’t an issue of central v local democracy. It’s central&local democracy v unelected bureaucrats.
For example, in Calderdale local councillors voted in favour of both election night counting and that the two seats in their area (Halifax and Calder Valley) should be counted in separate places actually within the constituency. The returning officer has agreed to night counting but refused their other request, which means the Calder Valley count will take place not in Calder Valley but in Halifax, much to the annoyance of elected local councillors.
My view is that both returning officers and those who count the votes should feel privileged to be taking part in such an important democratic process, and should even be happy to do the job for free. I’m amazed that such a jobsworth attitude is being displayed by so many returning officers. They shouldn’t be approaching it as a chore which has to be done.
320.It does nothing of the sort.
322. Which of those doesn’t it do? Is it not reasonably proportional? Do all elected members under STV not represent constituencies? Does the voter not have more power to favour or reject specific individual candidates than in just about any other system you can think of?
319. I agree there’s no such thing as the perfect system. Where I part company with you is that I think FPTP is pretty close to being the worst system. Well, I suppose there was that Northern Ireland election in 1995 when each party won two seats just for finishing in the top ten! And then there’s the ‘indirect democracy’ that elects the Chinese National People’s Congress. But other than those, FPTP is pretty much the worst.
317. No-one loses? You’ve only had one set of council elections under STV, so how on earth could you come to the conclusion no-one loses when there haven’t been any elections at which people could lose?
320.”it’s the system that transfers maximum power from the political parties to the voter. It maintains the constituency link, and it’s also reasonably proportional”
PR puts party first, voter second. And I am going to watch with interest how it all plays out in the coming for years in Scotland as the country struggles under the weight of this presence economic mess. This is the time when we really see if the voter is best served by this system of voting in Scotland, and how connected or disenfranchised they feel when they are really angry at our politicians. Some how, I doubt the parties will lose out, but I have my doubts that the voters will feel the power now rests further with them than it did under FPTP.
I know how many leaflets I received from other local party candidates under STV in the 2007 elections.Holyrood elections, and also in our local by election last year. And its a pretty shocking figure. And that will only be compounded as time goes on, and the longer term fall out of the lack of on ground campaigning in such vast area’s will only be compounded. PR takes the local element away from the elections, and that transfers the power away from the voter to the political parties. The biggest losers are the voters, and also the local activists as well.
Sorry to pour cold water over all the ‘PR’ enthusiasm on the thread tonight, but today’s shenanigans in Parliament mean nothing.
And nothing will come of nothing. No Act, no referendum, no new voting system. Not even the requirement for returning officers to count overnight.
What we have witnessed is the political jerks of a government in its death throes.
The real issue today has been Greece as Wibbler has pointed out upthread. The markets have paused in their assault on Greek Stocks and European currencies. US investors have place their faith in the Europe to cover Greek wounds with German bandages.
So Greek debt becomes European debt and the Greek government promises to follow the dictates of the ECB. Miraculously over a period of three years the Greek deficit will fall from over 12% to within the Euro guideline of 3%.
And how will this be achieved? By sending tax inspectors into shoeshops!
For how long will this great fantasy persist?
Under the old system of FPTP, and with the old wards, you would have been creaking under the leaflets delivered through your door.
328 - Ah AH!
It was a green policy to change the elevtoral system
See, they just marketed it badly. How could you object to saving the trees/polar bears/East Anglian poly pullover-wearers?
326. “PR puts party first, voter second.”
Christina, you’re being more than a bit slippery here. You quote me talking specifically about STV, and then you reply as if I was talking about PR in general. Given that STV completely strips the parties of their power to ensure specific candidates will be elected by placing them in safe seats, in precisely what sense does it place party first, voter second? It’s quite plainly FPTP (or, to be fair, a closed list system) that does that.
328. I can honestly say I haven’t noticed any difference between the number of leaflets I’ve received under PR and FPTP elections. If anything it might be slightly higher under PR because more minor parties feel it’s worth their while putting out leaflets. The Scottish Senior Citizens’ Unity Party leaflet from 2003 sticks in my mind - it was very effective because it contained a message from Billy McNeill.
324 - the worst possible system in my view is the closed list system used for Euro elections. It means that the person at the top of the list for the major parties can effectively spend the election campaign on holiday on the other side of the world because they know they can’t lose.
AV is not too bad because it preserves the constituency link, and actually I don’t think it would alter the result in most constituencies. For example, the majority of constituencies where a candidate polls 45% on first preferences would probably be elected under AV.
I like FPTP because it’s decisive and simple. I know that “simply” is a dirty word to many educated people these days but I think simplicity is often an advantage in life.
FPTP also keeps out extremist parties. Britain was the only country with FPTP in the 1930s and the only country which didn’t elect fascists or communists AFAIK.
327. “And nothing will come of nothing. No Act, no referendum, no new voting system.”
I don’t entirely accept that - I think the odds are against it, but if there’s a Labour-led government after the GE (which I know you think is completely impossible, but I take a different view) then I think they’ve boxed themselves in much more this time, and some kind of referendum is, on balance, likely to happen.
332. “FPTP also keeps out extremist parties. Britain was the only country with FPTP in the 1930s and the only country which didn’t elect fascists or communists AFAIK.”
Germany’s 5% threshold under PR has been extremely successful in keeping far-right parties out of parliament since 1945.
As a matter of fact, Britain did have Communist MPs. But leaving that aside, FPTP may in general be reasonably good at shutting out extremist parties when they’re at a low level of support, but once they got up to 30% plus? The mind boggles. Wouldn’t you rather have a system that excluded the possibility of an extremist party forming a majority government on anything less than a majority vote?
330.James, in Scotland we have a veritable feast of systems in play right now. So to be honest, you are talking to someone who uses them all. And we are about to see very soon how all these different systems serve the voter in the coming few years when times are tough, and the those voters are angry. The proof as they say, will be in the eating.
I am just telling you that having experienced STV among others, I feel more disenfranchised as a voter, and as someone who wants to be involved in politics. I know that doesn’t compute into the statistical brilliance of this system on paper when being discussed by the so called experts on here. And feeling like this doesn’t make my views or feeling slippery, they are as valid as yours or anyone else’s in the debate. I want bespoke local politics, and I used to have that under the old system. Taking it to constituency level, and just get the various parties to put the local postie on retainer, he is going to be very busy.
327: Seth, I’d be cautious about taking Roger Boyes’s article too much as a guide to Greece - like a seanT piece here, his style, I-am-interviewing-some-strange-yet-typical foreigners, is instantly recognisable (I guessed as I read it, without knowing he was now covering Greece) and not in my opinion that informative on the place he’s covering.
314: wibbler, you and antifrank have some similarities in textual style (similar lengths of posts and paras) and both of you seem slightly detached from the parties. Quite rare here,
332: See
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Willie_Gallacher and
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phil_Piratin
and I think there was a prewar guy of Indian descent. Gallacher was a pretty well-known figure in his day, comparable perhaps to George Galloway in his heydey (IMO GG is on his way out). Ironically, the CP more or less died out when it became more moderate - it started to attract people like me, but lost its raison d’etre, which was to be *well* to the left of Labour.
335. “I am just telling you that having experienced STV among others, I feel more disenfranchised as a voter”
But why? Because you were required to make an individual choice, rather than being able to just cast one vote for the one person who your party had chosen to hand the blue rosette to? That’s an odd form of disenfranchisement.
“And feeling like this doesn’t make my views or feeling slippery, they are as valid as yours or anyone else’s in the debate.”
The irony is that you’re being slippery in defending yourself against the charge of slipperiness. That, as you very well know, related specifically to your pretence that I was talking about PR in general rather that STV in particular, not to the ‘feeling’ you’re describing there.
335. Grr, both my attempts at responding have triggered the moderation trap for some reason.
To summarise what I was trying to say in different words - STV forces you into an individual choice rather than voting for the one candidate the Conservative party puts up. That strikes me as being a funny kind of ‘disenfranchisement’.
And on the point about slipperiness, I was referring specifically to the PR v STV point, not to the ‘feeling’ you’re describing there. As of course you know.
335. I don’t believe this - a third attempt at responding (all in slightly different words) has triggered the moderation trap for some reason! I can’t imagine what the problem word is. Maybe something will appear tomorrow. In the meantime I’ll have to admit defeat (assuming even this post goes through).
333 James Kelly
if there’s a Labour-led government after the GE
If I were a writer of best-selling thrillers, I’d offer to deprive you of all your remaining Croatian Kuna.
But I am not. I am a kindly soul willing to indulge the most far-reached fantasies.
We are approaching an election where the hedge funds and not the voters have power. We are living in a time where even the combined resources of all the G7 governments and treasuries will be forced to cede to the demands of those who manage the world’s capital resources.
Will the taverna owners, the shopkeepers and farmers of Greece take the medicine prescribed by their German doctors? Will the doctors and nurses and tax collectors take to their diets? No, they will take to the streets and their unions will strike.
So how does Germany collect its dues? By sending tanks in to quell the revolts? No again. The debt will be absorbed and hidden behind the cardboard facade of European fiscal discipline.
And who will now buy these dodgy Eurobonds? The ECB and friends? For a short time maybe, but the printing machines are grinding to a halt. Even Alistair and Merv have pulled the plug on their Heidelberg presses. And that leaves the private sector funds managers. Will they take the hits that their governments have been so willing to absorb?
Brown will be very lucky indeed to survive to May without the screws being applied. He will be forced to spell out in detail the tax rises and spending cuts that are no longer options of choice but will be the liferafts of a sinking ship.
The voters will flee from Labour not out of repudiation of their basic political philosophy, but in reaction to the punishment being meted out. They won’t turn to the Conservatives with love or conviction, but in revenge against the government they blame for the ills that are brought upon them.
There will be no appetite for electoral change. There will merely be a demand for strong economic government. They will close their eyes, hold their nose and jump.
341. Seth, even on Andy Cooke’s figures (which I think were much too optimistic for the Tories), it looks to me like the central figure for a Tory majority is a lead of 5.5%. And what’s the current average lead? Nine points? There isn’t a lot of margin for further slippage even on that model. My guess is that if Labour get the lead down to about three or four (which with three months to go is more than possible) then they would have every chance of being the largest single party, and in those circumstances I’m really struggling to see how David Cameron becomes PM. Unless perhaps the two parties are close enough in terms of seats that a deal with the DUP would swing the balance.
Incidentally, I think all my remaining Croatian Kuna have already gone to the said Cornish sex memoirist. He also got a single US dollar bill that’s been lying around the house for about twenty years. Losing that bet was a real boon in my ongoing battle against clutter.
336 Nick Palmer MP
The anecdotal style of Roger Boyes is not that of the hard-nosed financial investor, but it makes for an easier read and the conclusions are not too dissimilar from the markets.
Financial power has been moving two steps away from government treasuries. First through the highly concentrated and global investment banking sector and now to the ‘hedge funds’. Capital resources are being concentrated into low overhead, narrowly focussed and relatively unregulated funds, who play the markets at their own risk. It is no longer a lone George Soros hunting weakened prey. It is a global diaspora of funds.
Of course the governments and banks can take the hedgies on in a war of attrition - as in Hong Kong - but who will benefit from such the pyrrhic victories? And in these battles reason is on the side of the fund managers.
Governments and banks have shown themselves to be poor protectors of asset values. Their goals and structures are too wide, their stakeholders too diffuse. They are engineered to absorb rather than avoid loss.
If the capitalist market economy is to survive the current threats, it is going to have to have its medicine prescribed by private doctors.
O/T:
Goodluck Jonathan - the new acting president of Nigeria:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/africa/8507289.stm
344. I honestly thought you were wishing Jonathan good luck there!
345 -
333- It’s only probable ‘on balance’, if Labour win the next GE.
BBC Scotland - HMS Gannet to lose search and rescue operations
This is again worrying news.
347. RobD - yes, that’s what I meant.
BBC Wales - RAF to suspend overnight rescues
re 342. But James you have to also factor in the likelihood that all the pollster (bar AR) are over-stating Labour.
Given their record since the 1980s the default assumption has to be that this problem has not been solved. Maybe we will change this view after the election but until the Labour over-staters is roughly in balance with the under-staters then you’ve got to take account of it.
“I believe that Glasgow needs a change in how our city is run and a party that sets out a clear, credible alternative to the current Labour Administration. Regrettably over the last year it has become clear to me that the Glasgow SNP Council Group lacks both the leadership and the authority to set out an alternative vision for our city.”
“After 31 years of membership with the SNP the decision to leave has not been an easy one but the move away from a local to a centrally set income tax and the recent threats to take away control of schools and care for the elderly from local authorities show the SNP simply doesn’t trust its councillors, preferring instead to govern local communities by ministerial decree.”
“That’s why I am pleased to be joining the Liberal Democrats. I share their commitment to local government and to the core principle of keeping local decisions local.
“I will continue to work constructively for my constituents and for the people of Glasgow, but now in a way which is entirely in keeping with my personal and political beliefs.”
Just wondered if Stuart had commented yet….
With regard negative campaigning, the fact the Labour government denied their policy was to have open ended immigration, presumably increasing future labour voter stock, has been shown to be deceitful.
The tories will need to exploit this, diverting some potential BNP votes in the process.
Straw’s comments on QT that it was not policy need to be seen i the liught that all crime figures and discussions on them wete suppressed, as were all references to it being a Labour policy to change social cohesion via extensive immigration, based on quantity and not quality.
In Oz the rules have tightened from an immigration soft Labour government being hit in the polls on the issue, so that if you are not involved in medicine, engineering or mining then things are harder. 20,000 current applications, primarily from the UK will be rejected. Foreign students are not being given residency either.
If yous tudy that is fine but at the end of 3 years you go home, no option.
“Wanted Down Under” jobs for British hairdressers and cooks are no more. Skilled migration will involve the few skills the country needs that they are short in.
Perhaps Britain should se what is happening and realise the problem is not immigration per se, immigration should not be adirty word, focus needs to be on simply who has come in and what they have offered to the country after they have arrived, and who should come in now with perhaps 6 or 7 million people not actually working, albeit not actually on the unemployment figures for any number of reasons as the stats are continually doctored and reduced to aid and suit the government.
Negative Campaigning
Lock up your daughters Gulags for Slags
The Tories will have a great advert if as some of the latest economic stats mean that the growth in the last quarter is revised to recession.
Brown thought he got us out of recession, but he was wrong we never left it and may never leave it unless you vote tory.