h1

So who’s winning the death tax skirmish?

February 10th, 2010

How many of these will there be before the day?

I love politics in the raw. It’s all a spectator sport when it’s how parties and leaders handle issues and who is gaining the advantage. We dissect it here to the nth degree and I for one relish every minute.

So today’s spat between Dave and Gord was entirely predictable. Yesterday the poster featured above started going up and Labour had to respond fast. What’s being attacked, that a charge be made on the estates of those who have had funded long-term care, is one of the options in a policy paper last year, and is therefore on the agenda.

No decision has been made yet but clearly someone somewhere has got to pay what is going to be an increasingly large bill.

So why oh why when Brown was pressed by Cameron did he come out sounding evasive? Surely a straightforward response explaining what was happening would have sufficed?

He could then have put the boot into the Tories for trivialising the huge policy issues by what could be described as an opportunistic poster campaign

So who won? In terms of the PMQ encounter it was Cameron. But I can’t help but wonder whether the blue team have diminished themselves a bit on the way.

General Election betting: Both the main spread markets on commons remain suspended but the Betfair Line market has moved a notch further to the Tories. The latest seat spreads are CON 345.5-349.5: LAB 216.5 - 218: LD 53.5 - 54: SNP 10.5 - 12.5: PC 4 -5.5: DUP 7 - 8.5.

Mike Smithson



MessageSpace Advertising

560 comments to “So who’s winning the death tax skirmish?”

  1. Great poster!!!


  2. If everyone keeps referring to it as a “death tax”, the Tories win.


  3. There’s nothing certain in this existence except death, taxes and Tories. :-(


  4. It is a very good poster, isn’t it?

    Tories have got this one - Gordon needs to shut it down before it gets more coverage.


  5. It’s a clear win for the Tories - Labour have been made to look stupid and shifty yet again.


  6. A new death tax on top of the existing death taxes. What happened to new Gordo, the defender of the middle classes?


  7. I think the Conservative and Unionist Party has won this battle, but I don’t think it’ll change many people’s minds. Nobody but a complete imbecile would vote Labour and expect lower taxes. This one’ll be a nine-day (hour?) wonder.


  8. FPT Lilly Allen

    To place a lie on a poster is again a grave mistake

    A grave mistake indeed, Lilly. Perhaps Dave should bury it?


  9. FPT

    ‘But this is not about party politics’

    Tabman nominated for crass comment of the year award

    Watch out Roger you have a serious competitor.


  10. A twitch of OGH’s eyebrow against the Tories? Hmm, I think it is fair game. Yes, it’s a hugely important issue but this policy option is on the table and GB refused to take it off today. The Conservatives have their own proposal, the voluntary lump sum insurance payment on retirement, and are attacking a daft policy proposal.

    As has been said, if people associate a death tax with Labour then its a clear win for the Conservatives.


  11. “But I can’t help but wonder whether the blue team have diminished themselves a bit on the way.”

    I don’t think so - Labour are just getting it back in spades, it was their Green Paper afterall - unlike most of the strawmen they make up about Tory policies.

    And frankly - I think it’s also an incredibly crap idea.


  12. 6. “A new death tax on top of the existing death taxes. What happened to new Gordo, the defender of the middle classes?”

    You didn’t really think that Brown was listening to Mandy and the cabinet did you? No it’s back to the old ranty class-war, core vote, spendthrift campaign that Balls dreamed up.


  13. I just saw the poster from a train - between Queenstown Road (Battersea) and Vauxhall. Prime target for London-bound commuters.


  14. Labour will crumble if the tories actually press them on anything policy-wise becuase labour have no policies.

    Their tactic consists of wafting promises and gaurantees in the air and using them to attack tories with.


  15. “To place a lie on a poster is again a grave mistake”

    You may want to clean your own house, eh?


  16. It’s this election’s “Tax bombshell.”


  17. Obviously when Gordon banged on about 26 Tory tax-rises and 5 new taxes in 1997, in hindsight he was obviously berating them for being too timid. He was also very honest when he said “You can trust us on Tax”, he was admitting that Labour had not changed its spots at all.

    If he needs more cash, why not encourage smoking and drinking? At least we can be happily taxed into the grave - healthy people are a greater longer strain on the exchequer than hard-living reprobates!


  18. Is the accusation that Labour is planning a £20,000 death poll tax a grave charge?


  19. It didn’t die yesterday.
    Brown didn’t kill it today.

    Cameron walks away with the pot…


  20. Yesterday, I thought the poster was bad because it was based on a Brownie. It seemed to be a case of “make up your opponent’s policy, then attack that made up policy”.

    Now we learn that Brown IS actually seriously considering the compulsory death tax to fund his “free” social care!

    I was wrong. Total failure from Brown.


  21. “There’s nothing certain in this existence except death, taxes and Tories”

    Or as me and OGH can testify, “except death, taxes, and away league defeats for Burnley FC…”


  22. Just to be controversial - clearly (by the reaction on here if nothing else) there is widespread dislike of anything that looks or smells like a ‘death tax’ let alone one called as such. My question is why?

    I have a choice of a tax that I have to pay now, out of my earnings or capital, or a tax that I can pay after my death - when I wont be able to spend the money anyway. I’m just surprised that Labour aren’t spinning it as ‘defer your taxes - don’t pay now, pay later’ type of approach that the general public seems to be very happy with normally?


  23. Well, “life experience” for both Cameron and Osborne is that money grows on trees. Never had to work, or indeed, done any!


  24. This is a clear 100% win for Dave, with no downside.

    Looking forward to seeing how Gordon intends to extricate himself from this monumental f*ck-up.


  25. So who won? In terms of the PMQ encounter it was Cameron. But I can’t help but wonder whether the blue team have diminished themselves a bit on the way.

    I don’t think so because Brown has saved it for the Conservatives. There was a point yesterday when it looked like it was a bit of a damp squib that could have embarrasing consequences. Brown lost the ball on the halfway line and then let Cameron score a pretty important goal.

    If as Mike suggested Brown had acknowledged that there was a 20k option it indicated he wasn’t keen on it then he could have countered in the way Mike suggests but by obfuscating all he has done is put the ball in play.

    Brown has given credibility to the Conservative Poster and having done so he’s now stuck with the grim reaper / death tax label when the Conservatives are offering an optional alternative that costs half the price.

    This is one that will annoy/ scare a lot of people and Brown just gave it legs….


  26. O/T Germans seem to be playing down the prospect of support for Greece now…it’s all getting very messy


  27. 18. I’m mortified.


  28. 23 - Cameron has done more “real life ” work than Gordo (not that is saying much).


  29. 20, given that change of heart, what do you make of the poster?


  30. Looks pretty good: eye-catching, succinct, direct, and frightening. Just about everything you want to do in a political poster.


  31. Remember the whole concept of propaganda…

    It is NOT there to change people’s minds it is there to REMIND and REINFORCE what people already believe in.

    This is not a poster to be studied in depth. It is a bat whistle “There’s the same old Brown again….taking all my money again…. Even when I’m dead…even taking granny’s money off her when she goes.”

    In classic Communication Studies research findings Goebbels didn’t change one mind to Naziism; what he did do was continually feed the fires of resentment and then champion the “saviour”. The German people already believed. They just needed reminding every now and then.


  32. 22. Lennon.

    Because you have already paid tax on the earnings that provided that inheritance. Basically, it is considered as double taxation.


  33. Everyone’s afraid of death. Everyone hates tax.

    Now both are linked with Labour. At the same time.

    Ouch.


  34. It was good politics from Cameron and a poor response from Brown, but I’ve yet to see any Tory contributor here address the substance of the issue. Namely, how do we address the high and rising cost of personal care for the elderly given the underlying demographics?


  35. 11: ‘…it was their Green Paper afterall…’

    Yes, I was astonished to learn the proposal had got to that stage of development. Why, yesterday even the astute roger, who normally has his finger firmly upon the racing pulse of British politics, was suggesting it was a Tory-invented fiction!


  36. 29 Morris Dancer

    Well, it certainly catches the eye - so effective from that perspective.

    A bit on the macabre side, perhaps, but given that Labour ARE considering a stealth death tax, they are now very fair game on this issue.


  37. 32, plus people want to leave money to their family and friends, not have their hard earned cash nabbed by the taxman.


  38. “But I can’t help but wonder whether the blue team have diminished themselves a bit on the way.”

    If I were the Tories, there was no way I wouldn’t have jumped on this, even if you are right there. Because whatever else it does, it fatally holes Labour’s inheritance tax arguments. And that has longer term benefits in terms of the campaign than any negatives caused by this.


  39. Slackbladder has hit the nail on the head at 14. Labour (and especially Brown personally) has been trying to get away with vague and unrealistic promises of goodies - in this case ‘free care for the elderly’ - whilst simultaneously jumping on the slightest inconsistency or omission in the Tory plans. They did well with that during January, but it was never a sustainable approach.

    The issue is not how to fund care for the elderly; everyone other than Brown admits this is a difficult problem, and there are no painless solutions. Thanks to the Tories’ impressively rapid response to the reports of a couple of days ago, this particular bogus dividing line is dead.

    The issue is Labour (and especially Brown’s) dishonesty - the Tories’ favoured ground.


  40. An outright win for Cameron i’d say - Labour will have some explaining to do and Gordon was made to look shifty and dishonest again.

    This has the 10p tax rate written all over it. Oh Dear.


  41. 26 - Crap! I’ve got 60 euros lying upstairs somewhere, better go and blow it quick before it’s worth even less.


  42. 31. Coming soon to a poster near you - “Gordon Brown: restoring the link between old age and poverty”


  43. 17
    “If he needs more cash, why not encourage smoking and drinking? At least we can be happily taxed into the grave - healthy people are a greater longer strain on the exchequer than hard-living reprobates!”

    Public-spirited citizens are expected to save up to die - not blow the lot on hookers, fine wines and good cigars (or meths and rollups plus a copy of health and efficiency for the less affluent) then attempt a route march across the channel with a concrete bergen.

    Shame on you


  44. I think Labour have compounded their error with the rebuttal poster here:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1249774/Will-Labours-care-elderly-plan-hit-middle-classes.html

    The strapline “Only the top 3% richest pays Inheritance Tax” seems somewhat at odds with Labour’s usual soundbite about it saving the top 3,000 money. So it reminds people of the Death Tax, and clarifies that Tory IHT plans only hit the very wealthiest.

    Bingo.

    What a bunch of complete morons.


  45. 36, aye, it is a touch morbid, but then, death’s like that :P

    Interestingly I only rated PMQs, last thread, as a minor Cameron win. Everyone else seems to think it was a strategic stonker. I wonder if this is because I already believed the likelihood of the 20k measure (as I stated yesterday, highlighting the Guardian article), whereas others thought that was stretching the truth.


  46. Just one problem, which I think antifrank, 18, implies: what does it actually mean? In this respect it resembles Chris Patten’s ‘Labour’s double-whammy’ rather than the devastating ‘Labour’s Tax bombshell’ from 1992, which was the most effective poster of the last 30 years.


  47. Gordon the Grave Robber, has a certain ring to it (and the problem for Gordo a certain level of “believe-ability”, as I’m sure marketing types probably go on about).


  48. 22: Several reasons.

    1) The government should not ‘profit’ from your death. It feels like those shifty characters which go over the battleground knifing the wounded and stealing their clothes and gold teeth.

    In addition, it means greiving families need to cope with the grabbing eyes of the taxman looming over them with a tax return in one hand and a payment demand in the other.

    2) People don’t like the idea of being taxed twice. We pay taxes on money we earn, why should we have to pay it when we die?

    3) It’s counter-logical to common sense. Common sense tells us to save money, to not spend it unneccessarly and to make sure that the ones we love are looked after. If the tax grabs it all, we’re just better off drowning in debt after spending it on booze n hookers yelling ‘So long suckers!!’ when we die.

    Instead those which do spend it all and don’t make any contribution to cover themselves still have to be looked after, and the bill still needs to be paid by other taxpayers.


  49. Another red herring, only of interest to political nerds, the average voter just looks and listens to it all and laughs.
    Personally I thought the most striking memory of PM Questions was the noise level, shouting and childish behaviour. I have no idea who was responsible, perhaps it is better off not knowing.


  50. 44

    That’s very hard to make sense of. Plus, it’s Cameron’s money in the first place.


  51. 37. Plus, people want the chance to get hold of their parents’ money rather than see it siphoned off to the taxman.

    34. Sir Norfolk, the Tories have their own proposal which is to have a voluntary insurance scheme consisting of a one-off payment at retirement.


  52. 25 Journalists (who have the recall of a goldfish generally as regards re-announcements of policy) yesterday took Andy Burnham’s assurance that a £20,000 charge was the last thing on his mind at face value - problem is that Burnham was happy enough for that to be the headline last July. It was one of three approaches, but the one papers led with and which he discussed then thinking it a winner.

    I think they were surprised yesterday to be met with Tory activists handing out flyers saying “No the new death tax” and unprepared for it to be raised, it had gone pretty well last summer, so panicked into denying it.


  53. 47 I can just see the posters of Brown and Darling as Burke and Hare and they even have Edinburgh in common as well……


  54. Brown has dug his own political grave.


  55. 49 david (s)

    No. Electoral reform is only of interest to political nerds.

    Social care is of great personal interest to the elderly, the group with the highest turnout.

    That said, it was a particularly rowdy session, with lots of heat where there should have been light.


  56. 55, the Speaker bears responsibility for that. He was woeful, both in terms of lacking control of rowdy backbenchers and failing to rein in Brown when every answer was “The Tories will eat babies”.


  57. 48.

    “People don’t like the idea of being taxed twice. We pay taxes on money we earn, why should we have to pay it when we die?”

    In fact this is a speciality of Brown’s: Everytime you fill up at the garage you pay fuel duty and then you pay VWT on the fuel and the fuel duty so you’re paying Tax on the Tax. Imagine what the tax future could hold for funerals? Taxed on the coffin, taxed on the cortege, taxed on the fuel that takes you to the crematorium, green taxes on the fuel used at the cremation, then get back home and open the will…40% tax on the inheritance and then £20,000 surcharge.

    Three things in life are certainties: Death, Taxes and Taxes on Death.


  58. VAT not VWT.

    Obviously.


  59. Maybe as an alternative MPs should be taxed £20,000 on the death of their political career. There will be quite a windfall come May 8th.


  60. I watched Andy Burnham’s press conference clip and he looked like a rabbit caught in headlights on this, so I guess Labour are worried about it. I have my doubts about this kind of campaigning. So a policy win for the Tories is sure on this one, but like OGH I do wonder how low all of this can go.

    On an aside, the Tombstone poster is up and running at:

    http://mydavidcameron.com/tombstone/


  61. 51 - It’s a very flawed alternative scheme. It excludes people who can’t scrape together that sort of sum at retirement and has a moral hazard problem as it’s attractive to people with underlying health problems who are most likely to require long term care, and correspondingly unattractive to others. To say it needs more thought is an understatement.


  62. Picture this scenario….

    Wilfred and Winnie, a eldery couple, worked hard all their lives, paid their taxes, they have a little house, a little pension and a little bit of savings.

    For the last few years of their life, Wilfred needed care, and sadly shuffles off this mortal coil. Winnie left with their house they’ve lived in for 50 years. She’s just buried their husband spend some of the savings to pay for the funeral

    Next day, post arrives, with a demand for £20k….

    Is that seriously what labour want? Turfing little old ladies out of their home for £20k a time?


  63. jfsl:

    “Because you have already paid tax on the earnings that provided that inheritance. Basically, it is considered as double taxation.”

    As opposed to VAT, Fuel Tax, Council Tax… ?

    I’m not trying to be awkward, just understand people’s thinking - if that was genuinely the reason, then there would be a huge backlash against everything that is double taxed, but other than a minor grumble (the nature of taxation) there isn’t really, and I don’t see any party claiming they will reduce these.

    I have a little more understanding for the ‘I want to leave something to my children, not to HMRC’ mindset, but if I pay an extra £20 tax a month, or £500 in 2 years when I die - what gets left to anyone is the same - in the first instance I never have it in the first place to give - in the second I have a larger total, of which some gets taken away. Personally I would prefer the second, but then clearly I am very strange, I am just trying to understand why…


  64. 22. At an emotional level, taxes and charges on death infuriate a lot of people.

    I admit, I don’t know why they should infuriate people more than say, income taxes, or VAT, but it’s undeniable that they do.


  65. I think we need to correct one misapprehension - the Tory poster and Cameron attack were, I believe, not in response to one of the options in the Green paper of last year, but in response to reports that this option was favoured by Cabinet:

    Radical proposals for a £20,000 compulsory inheritance levy to help pay for Gordon Brown’s social care plans may be endorsed by the government before the general election.

    The health secretary, Andy Burnham, believes he may get the backing for a compulsory plan from Downing Street, but influential cabinet members are still agonising over whether to be explicit about it on the eve of the poll. They fear the proposal may prove to be too bold to sell to the electorate in the heated weeks before an election.

    Some cabinet members close to Brown back the proposals, but believe the government may have cold feet, deferring a decision until after the election in the same way that politically difficult decisions on the future funding of higher education have been delayed until a post-election review.

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2010/feb/08/inheritance-levy-social-care-policy


  66. 34. SNP the nominal price of the Conservative proposal is £8k.

    Labour said that the Conservative proposals didn’t add up at the time it was announced but expect people to then believe that a mandatory scheme costing twice as much does. On all levels this doesn’t look good for Labour. The Conservative proposal is optional, costs half as much, they are not obfuscating about it and do not have a track record for imposing death taxes.

    Big lose for Labour……


  67. 41 Big Jeff

    I’ve got 60 euros lying upstairs somewhere, better go and blow it quick before it’s worth even less.

    Would have been a good idea if the value of the pound wasn’t falling faster than even the Euro.


  68. 52: ‘…problem is that Burnham was happy enough for that to be the headline last July.’

    Not only that, Burnham was kite flying the proposal in the Guardian two days ago and claiming he had Cabinet backing:

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2010/feb/08/inheritance-levy-social-care-policy

    What’s his game?


  69. On PMQs - noted Cameron got in another personal dig at Gordon, this time the comment on bananas, it seems to work in getting Gordon steamed up and less capable of answering without hesitations and in stopping him putting a coherent reply back.


  70. 49 “Personally I thought the most striking memory of PM Questions was the noise level, shouting and childish behaviour. I have no idea who was responsible, perhaps it is better off not knowing”

    That’s how it’s supposed to be. “The cockpit of the nation”.


  71. Superb poster - the Tories have got to get away from images of Cameron’s fragrant face, and instead churn out these kinds of hard-hitting challenges on specific items of policy.

    1. Death taxes - as above!
    2. ID cards/DNA/CCTV - “Big Gordon is Watching You”
    3. Economy - “Labour put £200 billion on your credit card this year - can you afford five more?”

    And so on. Labour is more vulnerable to attack from right and left than it has been for 20 years - the Opposition must not squander the opportunity to remind people of just how specifically Labour has failed.


  72. 61: Most people which have retired should be getting a lump-sum from their pension pot.

    That if they’ve been responsible and paid into a pension or set aside money for retirement, which everyone should.


  73. There’s a new dividing line!

    Conservatives: Only millionaires should pay inheritance tax

    Labour: Everyone must pay 20K death tax

    If Labour don’t U-turn on this one then they are in for all sorts of problems.


  74. 59. What an excellent idea - electoral performance-related pay!


  75. 65, aye, that’s the article I highlighted yesterday when debating with Mr. wibbler whether or not the 20k claim was legitimate.


  76. However comments like this -

    Andy Burnham on Wato on ‘death tax’ plan: “I’m not ruling out that option”. Same mistake Brown made a PMQs 40 minutes ago

    http://twitter.com/paulwaugh

    make this a long-tail win for the Tories. So that’s parliamentary reform, expenses and now a death tax. Much better politically…


  77. Labour’s problem is that their national health care proposal is just rubbish. It’s got ridiculous incentives and will be far to expensive to afford.


  78. 66 - Surely that’s a wholly consistent view?

    If you think that a mandatory scheme which avoids the moral hazard problem would cost £20K, it isn’t unreasonable to say that a scheme that is claimed to cost only £8K despite including moral hazard seems deeply suspect.


  79. 64: Never underestimate the emotional illogical side of taxes.

    The number of people which I meet and deal with which pay income tax under self-assessment which really, really resent writing out a cheque to HMRC.

    People which are employed pay just the same each week under PAYE, but I expect if we were paid gross and had to pay tax directly we would be a lot more resentful of it.

    There seems to be something about writting that cheque and seeing it leave your bank account.


  80. 63. Lennon

    Sales taxes are optional you don’t stricly have to pay the tax if you don’t buy the goods. Death taxes are imposed on everybody and there is no choice. Furthermore we know with mandatory taxes that people like Brown will use them to bleed as much money out of people as possible so just because it is 20k today doesn’t mean it will stay at that level for long. It is possibly the most captive tax. You cannot avoid it no matter what (well unless you manage to disperse you funds before death that is - more money for the accountants).

    With that in mind the wealthy will no doubt find a way to avoid it and the less wealthy will be more likely to get clobbered by it. So yet again Brown falls back on a regressive tax.


  81. My word, the quality of comments has been good on here today. In addition to some solid, honest debate, with people even acknowledging someone on the other side of the political spectrum had a valid point, there has been some cracking humour. I am particularly grateful to Bono Publico for:

    “Public-spirited citizens are expected to save up to die - not blow the lot on hookers, fine wines and good cigars (or meths and rollups plus a copy of health and efficiency for the less affluent)…”

    Thank you, ladies and gents, for a excellent morning’s worth of entertaining enlightenment.


  82. 81: It’s cos tims not here. the quality of debate (on both sides) is always better.


  83. 78 - Taxing someone at the point when it is conclusively proven that they will never benefit from the service for which the tax is hypothecated to pay for is a tough sell for anyone. Gordon Brown isn’t a very good snake oil salesman.


  84. Given Gordo record of stealth taxing the c##p out of the middle classes, not satisfied with that, stealing from their pension pots, and now (true or not) the thought he is going to take extra money when you die….All in all Gordo on dangerous ground, they need to close this one down asap.


  85. Hang on a moment.

    The Labour plan is to take 20,000 from you when you die if you have had intensive free care.

    The Tory plan is to tax you 20,000 when you retire, just in case you may need intensive free care before you die.

    Have I got that right?


  86. Waugh is rightly flagging the concern of bodies involved with LTC not wanting it to become a political football. They are right but with weeks to go to an election and the voting demographic it relates to, we can’t expect MP’s to call a truce now hostilities are fully ‘on’.

    I say again, the blame for that happening was Gordon’s decision to kick off that political game in his conference speech. As has been referred to on the last thread, even Polly T back then said this was an awful mistake by Brown. The Guardian piece this week just lit the touchpaper to set it off.

    He is reaping what he sowed…. typical Brown.


  87. 81 Bono Publico is right. As a single bloke with no dependants, I am trying to work out how to make sure I die with exactly £0.00 in the bank. There is no point working hard to earn it and then not being able to spend it in your retirement.


  88. FPT 496 - Godwin’s Law by proxy

    “Well a certain German democracy didn’t, did it? And these days it is far too easy for people to be influenced by shallow sound bite politics rather than looking deeply into what parties offer”

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weimar_Republic#Elections_of_July_1932

    The highest level of support that H1tler got was 37%, which meant that he did not gain power through the ballot box. He got it by abolishing parliament through coniving with the President and making himself Chancellor.

    If the German elections in 1932 had been held under FPTP he wouldn’t have needed to go through that illegal process; he’d have won a landslide.


  89. 85 - No…


  90. why when Brown was pressed by Cameron did he come out sounding evasive?

    That is Brown, he will not give a clear answer !!!!!!!!!!!!


  91. 78. Ah politicians and their morality?

    Personally given what has happened in the last year and the fact our economy is in dire straits I suspect no one will be listening if politicians talk about morals. All people will see is another tax from Gordon the stealth tax master…..


  92. the problem of both “who pays” and “how” for adult social care and the accommodation costs of that care is one that no-one has acceptable answers to. whilst the Lab plan (announced by Gorgon out of the blue to the cries of anguish from all over the place) has the problem of who funds the care during life, the Con plan has two problems……..firstly it’s too small an amount, and secondly those many who can’t afford the cost.

    The fact that Lab also made the announcement regarding what they were proposing before the end of their own consultation just shows so-called “consultations” for the joke that they are.

    Labour own goal here trying to be clever.

    But let’s not diminish the fact that there is a growing problem which needs addressing now.


  93. ‘Labour in a guddle over independence referendum’

    Scottish Labour leaders were trying to extricate themselves from tricky accusations of hypocrisy this morning over their approach to a referendum on independence.

    Up until now, the Scottish Labour position has been this: we can’t have a referendum now because of the recession, this is no time to become embroiled in constitutional wrangles.

    All fine and straightforward except no-one seemed to tell the Labour parties in Wales and London, both of which have backed two different referenda in the last 12 hours.

    The problem with this for Scottish Labour is that it doesn’t actually believe the argument it has been deploying against an independence referendum.

    The only reason Labour say “not now but possibly in the future” is because of the Wendy Alexander “bring it on” debacle. The party is officially keeping its options open because it has no choice. If it said “no referendum, no way, not ever” it would not only be ditching Ms Alexander’s position completely and totally but it would open the party up to accusations of being un-democratic.

    The reality is that Labour don’t want a referendum now and they can see no possibility of ever backing one in the future for one simple reason: there is a chance – however slim – that the SNP might win.

    http://politics.caledonianmercury.com/2010/02/10/labour-in-a-guddle-over-independence-referendum/


  94. 86 No, I understand that the Tory proposal was to charge you less, voluntarily, as an insurance payment. Presumably you would be able to risk either paying for the care yourself or not getting it.

    I haven’t really paid much attention to this myself, but my main point would be: given that we are skint, and can’t really afford the basics like sending the army to fight a small war, it doesn’t really seem to be a god time for the State to be taking on additional responsibilities.


  95. And another dangerous story for the government. In addition to the Telegraph story,

    How Labour threw open doors to mass migration in secret plot to make a multicultural UK

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1249797/Labour-threw-open-doors-mass-migration-secret-plot-make-multicultural-UK.html#ixzz0f8r27E0T

    And yes it is the Daily Rant (so no surprise), but just when the government thought the Neather moment had passed, it seems it is back on the agenda (strange how the BBC seem to miss this news each time it comes up).


  96. 92. Exactly right. As ever look who scored the own goal though…


  97. 88. In fact the Nazis got 44% in the last free German election

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_federal_election,_March_1933


  98. Looks like the Glasgow Herald’s “Exclusive” interview with FM Dave was not as “Exclusive” as advertised:

    ‘I’ll keep Scotland in UK, vows Cameron’

    CONSERVATIVE LEADER David Cameron yesterday pledged to do nothing to alienate the people of Scotland and drive them towards independence if he becomes Prime Minister in three months’ time.

    In an exclusive interview with The Courier at Westminster yesterday he said…

    “I think that his dreams of an independent Scotland will remain dreams.”

    “I think at the same time people will look and see what has happened in Ireland, in Iceland, in Greece and recognise that the idea that an independent Scotland would be in a better fiscal position is simply not true.”

    Asked specifically if this would include tax-raising powers, he said, “I think some form of greater financial accountability would be better for Scotland.”

    “It was very sad what happened to the Scottish regiments just as we have seen the destruction of too many English regiments as well. What we can do about it four years on? It is very difficult. We are going to have a defence review and anything we can do to maintain those separate identities, we should do. Everything we can do to make sure the separate identities of the different Scottish cap badges within the Scottish regiment—to keep that going—we will do.”

    “It is an incredibly important part of it and we are in danger of losing it.”

    http://www.thecourier.co.uk/output/2010/02/10/newsstory14522591t0.asp


  99. 92: The issue is even bigger than that. Medical science is continuing to extend our life and keep people alive longer and longer. However as a society, and certainly politicans have yet to grasp the full implications of that.

    I fully beleive that in 100 years Voluntary Euthanasia will be legal and widely used. It will have to, and I think that people will accept it and be open to controlling how their lives end.


  100. Now that Gordon is near certain to lead labour at the GE, Cameron has certainly taken of the gloves, and got personal with Gordon, loved the bananas reference.

    Good show Cameron, do it everyday between now and election day, and you’ll be in Downing Street for sure.

    I for one am glad the Tories aren’t being timid.

    Tonight’s headlines will be “Gordon refuses to rule out death tax”


  101. Gordo tough on expense fiddling, tough on the causes of expense fiddling….

    “The Peers now just have to spend one night a month, while the House is sitting, at whatever location they choose to state as their “main home”, be it their own, a spouse’s home or even a relatives.

    In other words a Member of the House of Lords can now make up to £30,000pa by spending ten days a year at a residence, of their own designation, outside of London.”

    http://order-order.com/2010/02/10/carry-on-claiming-mlords/


  102. 90
    Paranoia.

    Brown was looking for the trap.
    He didn’t notice that it was one he had prepared earlier.


  103. 97. Using ‘free’ very loosely really.


  104. - Betfair Party Seats Line: SNP 10.5 - 12.5

    Tim, get your hand in your pocket! Don’t be shy now.


  105. 92 Ian Stewart

    I do agree that the Tories’ proposals do sound rather flimsy as well - Sir Norfolk Passmore has pointed out the main flaws above - but at least they are voluntary, and the Tories are upfront about them.

    Labour are considering a stealth death tax.

    On the Lib Dem website, they have this policy document which states

    We will make a ‘universal care payment’ based on an individual’s need, not their ability to pay, for those aged over 65 who require personal care (such as help with dressing and bathing).

    This would slash care costs for many people and guarantee a minimum standard of care for those who need it.

    http://www.libdems.org.uk/siteFiles/resources/PDF/Policy%20Briefing%20-%20Health%20Oct%2009.pdf

    but nothing on how it is funded.


  106. 97 - from the link you quote as being from a free election:

    “The election took place shortly after the Reichstag fire, in which the German parliament was set alight, allegedly by a Dutch Communist, Marinus van der Lubbe. This event had the joint effect of lowering the popularity of the Communist Party (KPD), and enabling Hitler to persuade President Paul von Hindenburg to pass the Reichstag Fire Decree. This emergency law removed many civil liberties and allowed the arrest of the leaders of the KPD shortly before the election, suppressing the Communist vote and consolidating the position of the Nazis. While at that time not as heavily oppressed as the Communists, the Social Democrats were also restricted in their actions, as the party’s leadership had already fled to Prague and many members were acting only from the underground.

    I’d hardly call that a free election.


  107. 104 - Stuart Dickson, since William Hill offer 5/2 on the SNP getting 6-10 seats, which is far better than the evens that tim would get by selling the SNP at 10.5 (always assuming that tim doesn’t think that the SNP will go backwards), I can’t see why he’d bother.


  108. 85. Curious in that curious way you manage to get the wrong end of the stick as ever(understandable from a Libdem I suppose)

    The Conservative proposal is optional and nominally costs £8k.

    88. Tabman and you don’t think political parties of today are capable of such conniving. Ironic they polled 1% more than Labour did in 2005. Perhaps you might consider AV Labour’s enabling law (Libdems should be proud of being Brown’s little helpers for the day)?

    And an illegal process is only illegal if the powers that be deem them so.

    Basically when there are parties around that can be bought so cheaply as the Libdems were last night then anything is possible and legality is not a protection.


  109. 78 If Brown & co really believed in their policy they could argue that the Labour proposal is more comprehensive in covering costs of home care and care homes. Problem is that their estimates for home care seem very iffy - the current proposal provides for minimal care of about 1 hour a week but only applies to those needing near full time carers. If all elderly knew they or their estates would be hit by a £20k charge then likely demand and expectations would rise, and people who manage but for whom help would be a benefit would claim it.

    Conservative proposal is for insurance against costs of residential care - where currently state will only cover for those with less than £23,500 in assets. Its more limited but as result more affordable.


  110. 79 - Slackbladder (& Sean Fear)

    I think that your comment on the emotional illogical side of paying taxes is very pertinent. Thinking about it, it is the a similar thing to the person whose bought some Shares at £30, watched them go up to £100, and then fall back to £80. The attitude is not ‘if I sell now I’ve made £50′ as it should be - but rather ‘if I sell now I’ve lost £20′.

    There is seemingly for most people something emotionally painful about the illusion of having money that then gets taken away, rather than never having that money in the first place.


  111. Before pouring scorn on the ‘death tax’ remember what NPMP said a while ago on PB. (I’m going from memory here, but if I’ve got it wrong, I apologize and please feel free to rebut it Nick)

    He said that his personal view was that on a death, after a certain small ‘allowance’ was left, the rest of the estate would revert to the government.


  112. 98. Stuart - any update from “HAC Salmond” on Megrahi’s health ? 175 days of freedom for the convicted mass murdering terrorist.


  113. 108 - H1tler would have won outright under FPTP. He did not, and could not, under PR.

    The rest of your post is specious nonsense.


  114. 110: Exactly right, things like PAYE, tax on interest, even VAT we don’t notice, so don’t pay attention to them.

    You can write this things of as being ‘illogical’, but they still matter. We are all illogical beings.


  115. 111. If that is Nick’s view, I wonder if he has shared it frequently with the electors of Broxstowe? I think they may take a different view…


  116. This is continued proof that the Tories offer nothing but negativity, dirty campaign tactics and no hope for the future.


  117. 95
    I heard it mentioned among a list of other Labour failures/’miscalculations’ on BBC R5 at 6:30 this AM.

    In the interests of balance, Tory failures/’miscalculations’ will be mentioned at 5:00 pm, 6:00 pm, and a repeat, for those who missed them, at 9:00 pm…


  118. 116 - Yawn..!


  119. 71- Plus, elections are overwhelmingly about the incumbent government, so it makes sense for the Tories to invest the bulk of their efforts in probing Labour weak spots as perceived by the general public instead of trying to sell themselves. You need to spend your limited resources where they’ll have maximum effect, and that means trying to highlight what people hate/fear about Labour.


  120. I think this whole debate illuminates one of the strategic holes that New Labour dug themselves by (a) repeatedly promising not, in any circumstance, to increase income tax, (b) reducing the basic rate of income tax whenever possible, increasingly as a gimmick, rather than because it was a good way to “share the proceeds of growth” and (c) rather dishonestly increasing national insurance instead.

    Essentially, New Labour chose to wimp out of the debate on the tax part of tax and spend. There’s a reasonable case to be made for general taxation to fund social goods**, such as the NHS, education, and, indeed, care for the elderly. New Labour will not make that case, and so the only alternative is to create shifty alternatives which are generally not as fair in the way that they raise the necessary money.

    Also, by not making the case that it is a civic duty to pay tax as a person’s fair share of the cost of social goods, New Labour have legitimised tax evasion, which means that those not on PAYE are increasingly now not paying their fair share, such as, allegedly, a former New Labour Prime Minister.

    Yet again, New Labour defeat themselves.

    ** Although it is also necessary to be able to demonstrate that the money thus raised is spent wisely, judiciously, and not lavishly. Something that New Labour have also failed to accomplish.


  121. 116. Don’t tell me - they/we are talking the country down as well aren’t we? And it’s not fair to the Troops either?

    Anyway, could this be the clearest “no, not when it’s gordon” answer to a question from a blog…

    http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/5765348/has-that-tory-poster-made-browns-job-easier-in-pmqs.thtml


  122. 116 - I take it you said the same when Labour ran their anti-semitic posters at the last GE?


  123. The Joanne Cash story goes on

    http://waugh.standard.co.uk/2010/02/the-joanne-cash-affairmore-on-the-fallout.html


  124. A little more on the Jo Cash story from Waugh:

    http://waugh.standard.co.uk/2010/02/the-joanne-cash-affairmore-on-the-fallout.html


  125. 114 - Which would indicate that Gordon’s missed a trick - he should instruct HMRC to systemically make mistakes to increase peoples PAYE tax and then give it back to them as a lump sum… You don’t really notice the increased amount going out, but thank Gordo when the lumps sum comes back again ;-)


  126. 113. From what I understand of the politics of the time I don’t think anything domestically would have stopped Hitler. Certainly something as petty as a voting system would not have stopped him.

    I come back to the same point again and again, a voting system is only as valuable as the integrity of the political classes. If the political classes are corrupt / debased / incompetent, changing the voting system will not change anything.

    Your case is irrelevent because the powers that be will trample over any restriction made by such petty considerations as voting systems if they feel the need to. For example, why did Labour use the Parliament Act more often than any other Government to force through its agenda?


  127. Breaking….

    Equalities chief Trevor Phillips is to be investigated by Parliament over claims he tried to influence a committee drawing up a report.

    The joint human rights committee said he had spoken to at least three of its members about its draft report.

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8508626.stm


  128. 125: They may not notice the payment in the first place, but they’ll darn well sure notice if it changes ;)


  129. 113 Tabman

    the jolly Austrian didn’t have a Parliamentary majority in any case but came to power through coalition politics.


  130. 123. What’s the fuss about? Personality clash in local party. Tories to win seat anyway. It’s really very uninteresting.


  131. 120 - New Labour have legitimised tax evasion

    No they haven’t - tax evasion is evading taxes by illegal means.

    Tax avoidance is avoiding taxes by legal means, though sometimes barely so.

    I’m assuming you meant the latter….


  132. OTOH http://www.andybarefoot.com/politics/tombstone.php?poster=213028


  133. 129 - and under FPTP he’d have come to power without needing to be in a coalition.


  134. I think the poster without even the slogan is so subliminal.
    The rose with RIP and RIP OFF works on two levels. We have talked about the way that New Labour’s main selling point has been destroyed under the Brownites as they swing back to a core vote. We all know about Brown’s stealth taxes and moving goal posts. Who could forget the 2p tax cut that turned into the 10p tax con, or BJ4BW’s.


  135. 116. Gordon was asked three times about a simple policy question at PMQs and three times he failed to answer it and instead attacked the Conservatives. If that is not negativity then I dont know what is!


  136. 116. Joshua - clearly you have only had one lesson from Tim. You need to get some more because really that is a dire effort. Its as bad as Brown own propaganda….

    125. So you think Gordon should increase income tax to 25% then or perhaps National Insurance ( thats what NI is for after all - oh they are already doing that as well aren’t they)?

    All these taxes that Brown is thinking about. Could it be because he’s got his figures wrong and because hes just got to raise a lot of money pretty damned quick…


  137. 132 http://www.andybarefoot.com/politics/tombstone.php?poster=213093

    Sorry I had to.


  138. 129. Yes - in the end thanks to the so-called ‘Centre Party’ which was ‘a member of nearly every government coalition in the Weimar Republic, both with the left and right’

    Sound familiar?


  139. 113. This PR FPTP debate seems to have resorted to reducto ad Hitlerium, but it might be worth making the observation that Hilter may never have got into the position he did if FPTP existed. FPTP tends to discriminate against minority parties and the NAZi vote grew gradually during the 1920s, in part thanks to the presentation they had received under PR. They may never have got a significant presence in the Reichstag in the first place had FPTP been in place.


  140. Did the Labourites really think this would be a bad poster for the Tories?

    http://www.mydavidcameron.com/images/bbdo4.jpg


  141. “Jonathan Fraser-Howells, the highly-regarded and well-liked agent for the seat”

    Ah, the old agent I knew was no longer there. That explains the problem……


  142. Don’t think this was posted:

    “Secret truce on care plans exploded by Tory poster

    The Times understands that discussions about finding a consensus on the issue have been going since November. Mr Lansley met Andy Burnham twice, both in the run-up to Christmas and the first week of January.”

    http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article7021844.ece


  143. 137 A tweak

    http://www.andybarefoot.com/politics/tombstone.php

    They still aren’t that funny ;)


  144. 134. ChristinaD.

    It works on three levels because it also perhaps imbeds an image of RIP Labour (particularly with the Redrose on the tombstone.


  145. Nick Robinson goes to Dudley

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/nickrobinson/2010/02/taking_the_puls_2.html


  146. 132 - it’s hard to resist…

    http://www.andybarefoot.com/politics/tombstone.php?poster=213144


  147. There are two nice touches in the poster that show a reassuring attention to detail. The tree logo is the same colour as the text and a wilted rose on the tombstone. It’s quite macabre.

    Taxed for dying. Yeh, good idea Burnham.


  148. http://www.andybarefoot.com/politics/tombstone.php?poster=213171


  149. http://www.andybarefoot.com/politics/tombstone.php?poster=213175

    I really should stop…but it’s too easy.


  150. 120 We have a paradox in that uncollected tax is now at its highest level, ever, at the same time that HMRC has been instructed to seek penalties from taxpayers whenever it can.

    Governments that rely on threats alone actually see their writ run less effectively than governments that have moral authority.


  151. 147 ASOD

    which of course for many means they are taxed £ 40 k plus funeral expenses for the luxury of their parents dying.


  152. I haven’t seen Martin Day here for a while… Is he re-banned, re-employed, ???


  153. The Conservative can develop this into a powerful narrative if they tie it in to the amount of government debt children are born into under this Labour Government.

    Something along the line of:

    ‘From The Cradle to The Grave you are paying for Gordon Brown’


  154. The Speccy really are getting their knickers in a twist about the poster,

    http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/5766068/the-tories-dirty-tactics-are-dispiriting-but-effective.thtml


  155. I just did a really tasteless one…I’d better not put it up. I have my limits.


  156. 110 Another example (drawn from Super Freakonomics) - give someone a choice of two games of chance. In the first game they are given £1 and might win another £1 depending on the toss of a coin. In the second game they are given £2 but might lose £1 depending on the toss of a coin.

    Objectively, both games are the same. In both games you have a 50% chance of walking away with £1 and a 50% chance of walking away with £2. However, the vast majority of people will choose to play the first game. Furthermore, those that do play the second game will be less happy when they win £2 than those who chose the first game.

    Relating this to the subject of the thread, we don’t really notice PAYE/NI as, for most of us, it is taken from our pay before we receive it, making it effectively money we never had. Sales taxes such as VAT are largely invisible. A death tax, on the other hand, involves writing out a cheque to HMRC when someone dies and, for the person writing the cheque, it takes away money they regard as theirs, the money they expected to inherit.


  157. 154

    I think they are upset that the Tories are being effective…..


  158. From EyeSpyMp,

    “George Osbourne looking nervous before greeting a Virgin…Sir Richard Branson in PCH.”

    “George Osborne and Richard Branson heading to Osborne’s office in Norman Shaw South…election endorsement coming?”


  159. http://www.andybarefoot.com/politics/tombstone.php?poster=213237

    what a great game!


  160. No longer the, ‘nasty party?’

    http://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/public-accounts/2010/02/160-conservative-party-mep

    Hmmm perhaps not.


  161. 156 - Super Freakonomics, fantastic book.


  162. http://www.andybarefoot.com/politics/tombstone.php?poster=213247


  163. http://www.andybarefoot.com/politics/tombstone.php?poster=213203

    Ah sod it…in for a penny, in for a pound.


  164. 160 - James Macintyre + Edward McMillan-Scott = IGNORE!


  165. 44.”I think Labour have compounded their error with the rebuttal poster here”

    I agree. They have left in the Tory message, have done nothing to rebut it or deny it, and then compounded their mistake by reminding us of how the death tax works. They just don’t get it, much as they didn’t get the harm that the 10p tax con would do them either. The voter is more interested in how Labour’s taxation policies are going to impact on them, and telling them how much Labour thinks its going to cost Cameron personally is just plain daft.


  166. 153 - More like:

    ‘From The Cradle to BEYOND The Grave you are paying for Gordon Brown’


  167. 154- From the article: “Personal attacks appeal largely to those whose minds are settled, so I see little electoral advantage in delivering them. But whilst this latest poster is distasteful it has been effective.”

    Are they talking about the same poster at the top of this thread? If so, their statement is a classic non-sequitur.


  168. 153.jsfl, totally agree with you. And I must admit that slogan really came to mind when I first saw the poster yesterday. The NHS is supposed to care for us from the cradle to the grave, but Labour’s economic and taxation policies have left us all now paying for their debt from the cradle to the grave.


  169. This poster must be a body blow for those in the bunker, Tim stuck for words?


  170. 160

    Ah, Macmillan-Scott is still sore that he’s been held up for breaking his promise.


  171. Could prove a nice little urner


  172. BETTING POST - NORWICH SOUTH

    As exclusively revealed this morning, Labour has cancelled the elections in Norwich this May. Everyone expected the Greens to depose Labour, who were only 3 seats ahead.

    When the electorate realise that they’ve been cheated of their chance to give a verdict for the shambolic way Labour has run their city, there’ll be hell to pay.

    No chance of Charles Clarke holding on. The greatest gerrymander since rotten boroughs were abolished in 1832.

    Ministerial statement
    In particular the draft orders are providing for the 2010 elections to Exeter and Norwich city councils to be cancelled and for subsequent whole council elections to the new unitary councils to take place in 2011.

    Bunnco - your man on the spot


  173. The elderly vote more than the young. Over 55’s tend to be planning for retirement and they vote, also more than the young.

    Gordon, David & Nck want their (English)* votes.

    Gordon came up with a clever idea - don’t wait for the Green Paper to go through all the discussion & feedback planned but sell it now as if it were already policy, and make it a dividing line with the Conservatives with talk of the National Care Service. Back that up with an immediate plan to pay for an amount of home care for the old with critical needs but make that sound as if it was for all the needy old and a lot more help than it is, underestimate the cost to be met from council tax. Trouble is the cost, so try to not talk about that.

    David also came up with an idea - the big fear is having to sell your home, spend all your savings on residential care and after its gone be dependent on the state. So offer insurance to cover the few (45,000 last year) in that position that makes the many happier. Doesn’t deal with all the issues of care for the elderly and doesn’t address home care/nursing. Cost is lower so happy to discuss figures but perhaps not what isn’t covered.

    Nick hasn’t got a plan, he’s pointed all his new taxes at raising the tax allowance and paying for young students. So he publishes some nice words that sounds as if the Lib Dems would do something.

    * Yes Stuart, Malcolm & co, see I know it’s devolved.


  174. http://www.andybarefoot.com/politics/tombstone.php?poster=213314

    Anyone can play


  175. These make your own poster things are really dull.


  176. The picture of Joanne Cash that is emerging from these reports is that of a remarkably petulant and childish person.


  177. 154.Oracle, in the words of the midwife, the Speccie are yet again proving that they are too posh too push, and the fact that they are so out of touch with reality just compounds that! Some real journalistic snobbery on display over recent weeks. They are like the art critics who do reviews for their own little world, and yet fail to grasp what sells on the doorstep. Its been quite illuminating to watch this over recent weeks.


  178. More larks on the poster at http://mydavidcameron.com/tombstone/ as last time round


  179. 175 - They are, though it’s interesting to have a go at coming up with your own slogan to see if you can improve on the original. If I had been advising the Tories, I would have gone with something more along these lines:

    http://www.andybarefoot.com/politics/tombstone.php?poster=213364


  180. Buncco

    That really is beyond disgraceful. Can the Lords stop it?


  181. 177. Frightfully well put.


  182. I imagine these posters will remind a lot of people why the Tories are known as the nasty party.

    It’s a risk to go negative when you don’t have to.


  183. 178: Booooo none of mine have made it to the front page…I wonder why?


  184. 179 The mopst depressing bit is: 213386 posters generated so far


  185. 172 - Bunnco - what? Elections in Norwich have been cancelled? Sorry to be slow on the uptake - but what’s happened?


  186. 182- It’s also a risk to be complacent when you think you can afford to be complacent.


  187. This is what it looks like on the Tombstone poster.

    http://www.andybarefoot.com/politics/tombstone.php


  188. 180 at least we got to vote on the expected day when they abolished Salisbury DC - its was just our new unitary councillors didn’t take office for a year.


  189. *** Betting Post ***

    SPIN have restored their various markets. No change in the GE seats one, but quite a few adjustments in Next Labour Leader.

    For some strange reason they’ve bumped up Andy Burnham (and reduced the Milibands). You can sell Burnham at 1.5.


  190. And a rather flippant futuristic take on the Tombstone Poster:

    http://www.andybarefoot.com/politics/tombstone.php


  191. 184. If you can’t beat ‘em (I’ve resisted until today).


  192. 172, 185 - ah, sorry, re-read the post - there’s unitaries instead. Mm - does seem a bit rum, that. That’s even dodgier than introducing all-postal votes etc.


  193. 176 - I think it might be the pregnancy hormones. They can make a normal lovely, rational human being into a bit of a nightmare.


  194. Back in 1997, Stephen Dorrell, then Health Secretary, was proposing some insurance scheme relating to care. I was not particularly interested because then retirement still seemed a long way away. Labour’s death levy is a very poor way of approaching the problem.

    I remember the Labour slogan in 1964 was “13 wasted years” of Tory rule. Today, not only in the care issue but in so many other ways we truly have had “13 wasted years” of Labour mis-rule.


  195. Re 187 and 190 Grrr wrong links doh!

    http://www.andybarefoot.com/politics/tombstone.php?poster=213476

    http://www.andybarefoot.com/politics/tombstone.php?poster=213476


  196. http://www.andybarefoot.com/politics/tombstone.php?poster=213470


  197. And again re 187 doh!

    http://www.andybarefoot.com/politics/tombstone.php?poster=213495


  198. One other point, while some might be sitting there trying to decide how we are all going to pay for our old age at every level. You have to wonder who was sitting in the Treasury taxing our future pensions and making sure it that closed down every savings tax loophole without a care for our future when economic times were hard. Where did all the money that Gordon cleverly fleeced out of us go?


  199. http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/5766303/a-perky-pmqs.thtml

    I think he says Bercow won…..


  200. http://www.andybarefoot.com/politics/tombstone.php?poster=213304

    What’s weird about all this is not the thing itself - they’re all closet Stalinist sociopaths who have no idea how the average person thinks - but a big part of ZNL was them realising that fact hence their obsession with focus groups. They can’t have run out of focus group money?

    +++

    FPT “432.What has a Tobin Tax got to do with bailing out Greece.”

    Nothing. They want the EUSSR to have it’s own independent source of income cos otherwise they won’t be able to have their own army, police, kgb, gulags etc. Greece is just another excuse for direct EU taxation like the global warming scam.

    +++

    FPT “413.It’s incredible how many of these MPs in marginal seats clearly feel ON THE ROPES”

    If i was a Tory politico i’d get a red rosette and go wandering round an estate or two to test for differential levels of abuse.


  201. 189 - Richard Nabavi

    Perhaps Burnham has gone to 1.5-2.5 because there has been a Betfair move? Burnham is now trading at between 10.0 and 16.5 thus the middle of this is 13.0….

    > 1/13.0 = 0.077% x 25 (25pts for being leader) = 1.92

    > Price is correct at 1.5-2.5.


  202. 186 - Being nasty, especially when you are being economical witht he truth, is not the only way of fighting complacency.

    Cameron may well have won PMQs but by this evening’s news Labour will be saying that the Tories were taking part in bipartisan talks aimed at finding a solution to financing social care for the elderly so that they could remain at home but that they have now decided to break away from trying to find consensus by putting out false claims deliberately designed to frighten the most vulnerable in society in a bid to win votes.

    As I said, it will remind a lot of people why the Tories were known as the nasty party. Although, as is shown by a quick read through of PB posts, it will delight a lot of confirmed Tories.


  203. Presumably this policy is for only England and Wales?
    That will not stop the Tories putting them up in Scotland as well to muddy the waters.

    Negative campaigning works; this excellent poster proves it, as will others in this campaign.

    Attacks will I THINK be less on policy near the election though, and more linked to leaders’ personality, and perhaps class toffness/snobbery/arrogance, which is a weak point for the Tories when the rich are getting richer pro rata.

    It is however not now just big Tory business seen as rich which would simplify the story; increasingly the rich are perceived to include the pollies themselves, of ALL parties.


  204. “Being nasty, especially when you are being economical with he truth,”

    Now remind Gordon Brown, how did he get where he is today (and stay there), talent?


  205. If the reds think the original poster was “Tory scare tactics”, I’ll show them bloody scare tactics..

    http://www.andybarefoot.com/politics/tombstone.php?poster=213539

    :)


  206. 201 Red - Yes, but there’s only £2 and £10 on offer, and last traded price was 16.0 (which is too short IMO).


  207. *** BETTING POST ***

    Interesting new betting market on SkyBet, how many seats will the Greens win:

    http://www.skybet.com/skybet?action=GoEvEv&id=12151614

    I believe that the 10/11 offered on the Greens getting no seats is the longest price that has yet been offered on this proposition.

    I wonder if Peter the Punter is tempted by the 8/1 on two seats?


  208. More reasons why people get conservative with age

    http://www.andybarefoot.com/politics/tombstone.php?poster=213582


  209. 203 Southam

    it will remind a lot of people why the Tories were known as the nasty party

    Only if they had managed to overlook all the nastiness and lies from Labour over the last 13 years. There aint that many people so foolish as that. Labour have taken nastiness to a new level with McBride and their other stunts.

    Banging on about such turgid dated narratives won’t work anymore. Gordon Brown is not a figure of sympathy. He is not likeable. it don’t work.


  210. 203: You seriously think theres going to be a difference in death tax in scotland???

    I’d love to see labour run with that…die in Scotland, Save £20k!!

    hahahahahaha

    No, you’ll pay just like the rest of us.


  211. 206

    Ok so if you don’t think Burnham is 7.7% to win and more like 4% which is a fair view (reducing the chances by nearly 50%) then the price midpoint would be 1. So a sell of 1.5 is not too great value really considering your effectively backing Burnham NOT to be next leader at 1/14 in fixed odds terms.


  212. I see the Lib Dem PR apologists have lost the debate comprehensively by way of Godwin’s law :roll:


  213. 203, 210 - That is actually a really interesting point. How could Labour justify a £20,000 death tax on those whose care is paid for differently? How could Labour stop the English and Welsh migrating to Scotland to die for a lower tax treatment?

    Devolution probably makes the whole idea unworkable.


  214. 207 antifrank - No, because Will Hill offer the same odds on just Norwich S, and it’s hard to see them getting exactly two seats without this being the second.


  215. 203 ‘Labour isn’t working’ , ‘tax bombshell’ and ‘double whammy’ were all attack posters, and seem to have worked.

    I imagine the current Speccie staff would be asking for evidence of the bombshell & whether it was fair to claim higher prices and more tax. As for those lines of people… definitely not fair.


  216. 202 (and others) There is no particular benefit in the parties acting in a bipartisan way, or to form “consensus”. To put it at its crudest, it is no more than a conspiracy by the oligarchs to give us, the electors, no choice. A similar con trick is run on drugs policy - it is for some reason not considered appropriate to want to reduce the harm done by drugs though any route other than prohibition and criminalisation.

    Our system is designed to thrive on partisan opposition to each others’ policies. Long may it do so. It is entirely consistent for the Tories to support a Government policy right up to the point they decide they don’t any more - or in this case, where they might support the implementation of a policy but smell a rat in the way the policy is to be funded.


  217. 173. I’m over 70, my wife’s almost that and my in-laws died a few years ago, after both spending several years in (nursing) care homes, one as a result of a massive stroke and the other from Alzheimers. So I’ve experience of this, and the possibilities are something we have to think about. We’re both fit and of sound mind at the moment, but you never know.

    As a result of the 1991 Community Care Act the NHS frequently manages to weasel (and I’m an NHS pensioner so it hurts to say it, but that’s the fact) out of paying for care, on the grounds that it’s social, not health. We had the devil of a fight to get the NHS to accept that both conditions were “sickness” not the frailties of old age. In the meantime we raided the in-laws savings and sold their house to keep them in a Home. Refusal’s not an option; people have been sued by Local Authorities and the NHS for such monies and lost.
    So we’ve had occasion to think about this very seriously.
    If either my wife or I need care I would far rather have 20k taken from either or indeed both of us after the second death than have my children go through what we and especially my bro-in-law went through with his parents.
    A mandatory 8k on retirement on everyone in my judgement isn’t enough, especially at current interest rates (and no, I’m not complaining about those.)

    Funding for elderly care, when necessary, is unquestionably in a mess, but so far it seems to me, as one, as I say, who might be very interested in the not too distant, that, given the state of the public finance, Labour’s plan is by far the better option. If the country’s finances were in a better state I’d say the LibDem plan was better, but as a nation we haven’t really thought it through.

    Rant over!


  218. Morley: Why I should get my £65k pay-out

    http://www.thisisscunthorpe.co.uk/news/Morley-163-65k-pay/article-1819784-detail/article.html

    Mr Bercow announced on Monday the one-off payment will not be given to three Labour MPs facing charges until court proceedings have finished.

    But Mr Morley exclusively told the Scunthorpe Telegraph: “I think withholding the resettlement goes against natural justice.

    “In effect it turns common law around, which judges me guilty until proven innocent.

    “It is one of the many ways I have not been treated fairly.

    “What happens in the legal outcome is a matter of conjecture and would be for the House to decide.

    “I would point out I have repaid in full and do not owe any money in relation to expenses.”


  219. 184 Richard Nabavi

    One in support of your comment

    http://www.andybarefoot.com/politics/tombstone.php?poster=213678


  220. 213: I can see it now…a little old granny being shoved up north to die…..a fate worse than death.

    ‘Don’t worry granny, you’re saving us £20k….it won’t take long up there given their health service’


  221. 210 doesn’t apply in Scotland and it’s the SNP & Lib Dems who would run the line Vote Labour and pay the £20k death tax in the 2011 election, because they offer ‘free’ care already to an extent.


  222. For example, why did Labour use the Parliament Act more often than any other Government to force through its agenda?

    ===============

    The Conservatives have long had a healthy majority in the Lords so didn’t need to?


  223. “that they have now decided to break away from trying to find consensus”

    Most will remember Gordo’s idea of consensus building is to present a fait accompli.


  224. http://www.andybarefoot.com/politics/tombstone.php?poster=213726

    Oldy but goody.


  225. Gordon wants to be there for you at the end.

    But only so he can collect his £20,000 death tax.

    People ask why the notion of death taxes is so potent. I think the answer is quite simple. Most people don’t make much of themselves in their lives. They might have had their 15 minutes of fame, but most people die in obscurity. All that they amount to at their death is what they have managed to acquire during their life. And they want to be able to pass on what they have made, what they have built up. They have no other legacy. So when someone takes a big slice of that, they are reducing what that person has been in life. And let’s face it, under Labour, if you don’t pass on more than £20k, you might as well not have existed. And many of Labour’s core voters won’t put away much more than £20k by the time they die.

    Nice politics Labour. Really nice. Remind most people that their entire existence has been largely futile. You haven’t even reached the threshhold of passing anything on to the family. What a crap person you’ve been for seventy years. Why did you even bother existing? Huh?


  226. 210. This was covered at the time. The Home care proposal is England only, so presumably the tax to pay for it should be as well. Gordon Brown wants you to pay £20,000 death tax, unless you live in his constituency.


  227. 212 - au contraire, ’twas jsfl who mentioned the Germans first.


  228. 202- Is it “economical with the truth”? That is, to put the question directly, is it a lie? If it’s a lie, it is wrong and “nasty”. But if it’s true, there’s nothing wrong with it. Most people here (and at the Spectator apparently) seem to be dancing around the nastiness issue when it should really be about whether it’s truthful or not. Presuming it’s true, it would be political negligence for the Tories to pull their punches on a winning, truthful line of political salesmanship.

    The Tories should never make the mistake that Labour made in 1992, celebrating victory before it had been won. Failing to hit Labour with everything they’ve got would be tantamount to such a premature victory party.


  229. Killing two birds with one stone?

    http://www.andybarefoot.com/politics/tombstone.php?poster=213709


  230. 202 - Southam, the one problem with the economical for the truth line is that Andy Burnham said on the World at One that he was not ruling this out. Therefore Labour have given legs to something that they could have stopped. (As an aside once again Andy Burnham screws-up an attack). The same goes for the press conference when he looked very evasive denying it. Now, like you, I don’t care for the personal (Demon Eyes, Mummy’s Return and the disgusting anti-semitic posters), but I actually do believe that the Labour below-the-belt attacks may be working a bit. It’s all very well being wonderfully nice all the time, but if you loose the election?


  231. 218 Is Morley trying to be hacked into small pieces by the good people of Scunthorpe? Maybe he’s trying to incite them to do him in ahead of the £20,000 death tax…


  232. 204 - So you are conceding the Tories are being economical with the truth. I thought the Tories were claiming that they are better than that.


  233. One for Bob Dylan fans:

    http://www.andybarefoot.com/politics/tombstone.php?poster=213759


  234. 226: Does anyone therefore not see how unworkable this is? Start up a old folks home north of the border and ship em in from down south…

    Not to mention the number of english which will ‘retire’ up north…

    It’ll be the best boom industry for Scotland ever.


  235. It was Hotblack Desiato who spent a year dead for tax reasons. Are we being invited to vote for a Government that encourages us to die in Scotland for tax reasons?

    You can see the posters now: see Auchtermuchty and die.


  236. http://www.andybarefoot.com/politics/tombstone.php?poster=213760


  237. In my experience the single issue which most worries the section of the electorate most likely to vote, i.e. retired people is how they will pay for their funeral etc without burdening their family. If older voters believe that Labour will impose this “beyond the grave” tax to pay for healthcare etc then it must expose Labour to a fall in vote share among those already least likely to support Labour.

    Bunnco, do you think the cancellation of the Norwich city council election will give the Greens a boost or just “anyone but Charles Clark” a boost?

    Westminster North- I am confused! Is Joanne Cash back in harness as Tory PCC following the resignation (?) of the Association President and Professional Agent?


  238. 234 Gretna Green Granny Farms welcome you for your appointment with the Grim Reaper…


  239. 211 Red - Yes, I guess it’s inevitable that a Sell will never be wonderful value at these relatively long odds and given the spread of (in this case) 1 point. The conventional bookies quote between 19.0 and 26.0 (and that of course includes their profit margins). Personally I’d say a 4% probability is over-stating it, but others may disagree.


  240. 220 made me laugh.

    Just think of Helensburgh, Dunoon, Largs etc filled with sickly retired English OAPs while Bournemouth, Torquay and Eastbourne become affordable locations for the young as retirees flee to Scotland…..

    …perhaps that’s what coldstone fears, his kids sending him to Portobello once he looks a bit off colour.


  241. 219 Thanks, Seth!


  242. 230 - The Tories are not going to lose the election, which is why they have no need to do that. In fact, it seems to me that the one thing these kind of attacks will do is galvanise the anti-Tory vote. That postr claims that Labour has “a new death tax”. That is demonstrably untrue ad so it ends up making the Tories look nasty, something Cameron himself has been at pains to avoid since he became leader.


  243. 237 - So that justifies telling untruths, does it?


  244. 242. In your humble opinion - but then you aren’t even neutral.

    Old people turn out and vote - its not rocket science.


  245. 228 - It is not true. There is no Labour Death Tax.


  246. 243. Why did neither Brown nor Burnham deny it then ?

    Brown had 3 chances today to rule it out on a yes/no question.


  247. 243; It’s not an untruth, it’s a ‘risk’, which labour have opened up by not being clear with their policies or how they will pay for it.

    No Sympathy at all.


  248. 245: Labour hasn’t ruled it out though. They could have done, and so one is lead to assume.


  249. 244 - Of course I am not neutral - who is on here? But that poster is plainly untrue and it is not necessary. The Tories mae themselves look shifty and a little bit desprate - in my view - by going with it. Obviously Tories on here disagree. That is their completely unneutral view.


  250. 233 - Knocking on Heaven’s Door would have been the more obvious one. However…

    http://www.andybarefoot.com/politics/tombstone.php?poster=213803


  251. 249. What could be shiftier than refusing to rule it out 3 times in a row in the commons ?

    The only thing shiftier would be to do it four times.

    Take the blinkers off.


  252. Curious to see if this works:

    http://www.andybarefoot.com/politics/tombstone.php?poster=213824


  253. SO - read Polly’s article from when Gordon kicked LTC on to the pich before you pontificate too much…

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/feb/02/free-care-rich-brown-elderly

    Here was such a sound and solid piece of policymaking, rare long-term thinking about a wicked issue you wouldn’t expect just before an election. There might be few votes in it, with a political risk of a backlash. Last summer’s green paper on how to pay for social care was a model of how to approach an unpalatable ­problem with no easy answers. It was a coherent plan for financing a much needed ­National Care Service.

    Sure enough, it was too good to be true. Gordon Brown, eager for an eye-catcher for his party conference speech, made an extravagant promise of free personal care at home for all those with “critical” needs. It blew the green paper out of the water by offering what the green paper and most experts agreed was impossible – the mirage that the state can pay for all care of the elderly. Andy Burnham, the health secretary, had laid out the reasons why at length as he put forward his proposed fairer ­insurance scheme. It is completely incompatible with this “free” plan of Brown’s – though now Burnham lamely says this is an excellent “interim”.


  254. 237 Southam - Where’s the untruth? If it is untrue, Gordon would have said so. So would Burnham. Given the election is three months away, they must know whether this is their policy or not, mustn’t they?

    According to the Guardian, the thing they haven’t quite decided is whether or not to bother to tell the electorate.

    Meanwhile, Labour have been trying to gain political advantage by saying they will offer ‘free care’. I think you are accusing the wrong side.


  255. 248 - The Tories have not ruled out a significant hike in VAT.


  256. Good points on the death tax not applying in Scotland. It would be a bit of a double edged sword for the Scots though. On the one hand you would have lots of English OAPs heading north to dodge the death tax, which would be good for the scots economy. On the other, health costs would rise.

    So the death tax has potential for the SNP as well. Vote Labour and pay for looking after old english people.


  257. 250. I didn’t think there was a more obvious choice than Tombstone Blues!


  258. http://www.andybarefoot.com/politics/tombstone.php?poster=213862

    It really doesn’t matter whether the poster is for or against the Tories, it keeps the death tax issue front and centre.


  259. 172 - If Charles Clarke doesn’t win, who does?


  260. 240. Doesnt it conjour up images of a fleet of ambulances racing up the M6 hoping to reach Gretna before the person in the back shuffles off this mortal coil?!

    Another one for the file marked “They didn’t think it through!”


  261. 19.

    “Cameron walks away with the pot…”

    I thought he said he’d given that up at the end of his school days?


  262. 255: So…neither have Labour.


  263. 245. Then why did Gordon Brown refuse to deny it at PMQs when asked three times by Cameron?


  264. 135, 136 etc - You think I support Gordon Brown? Just because I can dish a bit of an opinion of the oh so beloved Conservatives that makes me ill informed? Cameron and his rabble proved in PMQs that they are in no way a fresh alternative. They’re just as bad as Labour and I hate the majority of their policies (those that exist at least).

    I think I have a right at least to state why rather than be spoken down to by those who think they know better. As a student I have had no support from the Conservatives and have had no information on what they plan to do when I go into higher education. Yes, Labour have made it something so very costly but at least they have made it available to more students than ever.

    I’ve seen the changes Labour have made to schools as I have grown up through this. Christ, my own secondary school was even used in their 2005 election broadcast! We’re not exactly a high performing school but with endless renovations, new science labs, new sports hall, new computer rooms, new computer, new library and new technologies I can see no reason as to why the Tories could possibly do better with education bar finding a way to improve exam results (which I think is down to the corruption of the exam boards not to do with the Government at all).

    I think Labour have failed us on the war and defence but I do not want a government that will come in and pump endless amounts of cash into defence at the expense of even more cuts to public services.

    Oh and one final thing. I will never, EVER vote for a man who endorsed Section 28 (and voted against its repeal) no matter what he says. How someone changed so drastically in less than a decade? In fact, how can the majority of the party do so?! Its ridiculous and I could easily sit here all day saying why, as an 18 year old student, I shouldn’t put my pen anywhere near to a box next to a Tory candidates name but I simply don’t need to. Their record speaks for itself.


  265. 255 And Gordon has not ruled out compulsory euthanasia at 60. You really want to play the “not ruled out” game? Cause we could generate hundreds of posts of what people have not ruled out.

    The LibDems have not ruled out selling Wales to Liechtenstein for thirty quid and a go on their Chopper bike.


  266. 252. Marquee Mark - presumably in Lord Ashcroft’s case the answer could be taxes!


  267. 261:
    1) Buy a load of run-down houses in Glasgow
    2) ‘rent’ them out to OAPs who claim them as their main residence
    3) OAPs die, saving £20k as they ‘live’ in Scotland
    4)???????
    5) Profit!!


  268. Here’s mine

    http://www.andybarefoot.com/politics/tombstone.php?poster=213915


  269. 259.

    “If Charles Clarke doesn’t win, who does?”

    If the pink Shrek doesn’t win, EVERYBODY wins!


  270. 266 You might want to add “allegedly”. He sues.

    Allegedly.


  271. 264: Don’t worry Joshua, you’ll start paying taxes soon enough.


  272. 265:Liechtenstein has a chopper bike? Sweet!


  273. 265.

    “a go on their Chopper bike.”

    I thought they gave hwer a free transfer to the Conservatives some time ago? :-(


  274. On second thoughts it’s better without the excessive punctuation

    http://www.andybarefoot.com/politics/tombstone.php?poster=213931


  275. 264. More or less pure satire, there, especially ppgh 3 and the ‘18-year old student’ bit.


  276. Best bet today is Spurs to finish 4th @ 5/1 on Betfair, before Liverpool lose tonight at Arsenal, and Spurs win at Wolves.


  277. Sort of on topic…

    [Birmingham] council has also identified several areas where it can increase its revenue. These include looking at what can be done to increase revenues at its cemeteries and crematoria.

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/west_midlands/8508023.stm


  278. The Tories have not ruled out gassing the Taliban.

    Sure Marquee Mark - but TBH that was the Tory defence. If it is at that level then the Tories really are scraping the bottom of the barrel - and why?

    Well the answer is clear. The Tories are going to try everything they can to keep the spotlight off themselves - the last month was a disaster for them, as when they tried to put themselves centre stage, they looked shallow, dithering, rudderless, directionless and stupid.


  279. 270.

    Do you have to be domiciled here to sue here?


  280. 254 - It is untrue because there is no policy to introduce a Death Tax.


  281. If only we could have honest posters, like that Labour one at the last election claiming the Tories would cut spending by £30 billion.


  282. 278.

    “The Tories have not ruled out gassing”

    That’s one way of avoiding getting round to publishing real policies.


  283. 276 - Spurs will finish 7th.


  284. 279.

    “there is no policy to introduce a Death Tax.”

    The Tories presumably think such a tax would disincentivise death?


  285. 270. Marquee Mark - allegedly using allegedly does not protect you from being sued anymore!


  286. 264 - If you’ll NEVER vote for them why should they bother taking your views into account at all?


  287. 265 But the Government has’t published a Green paper setting out options including the sale of Wales to Liechtenstein or compulsory euthanasia at 60. So that’s a pretty crap point, really.


  288. 275 - runnymede - more juvenile than Juvenal, imho…


  289. “there is no policy to introduce a Death Tax.”

    How can you say that, but Gordon Brown couldn’t?


  290. 267. 6) Use profits to open a chain of off-licenses in Berwick and Carlisle to cash in on Scots looking for cheap booze if the Scottish Government succeeds in implementing minimum alcohol pricing!


  291. 249 Southam Observer

    You are one of my favourite posters. But do lighten up.

    This poster is the best fun we’ve had for days.

    It is not whether the underlying facts are true that is important but whether the poster communicates a political ‘truth’. The message is that Gordon will hit you with taxes, even if you are dead. It works.


  292. 278 No, Paul. They are putting the spotlight back on Labour, and quite rightly so. Labour have had an incredibly easy ride from the media, offering freebies and giving absolutely no indications whatsoever of how they would be paid for, nor how the reductionion the deficit which they have absurdly enshrined in law is supposed to be achieved.

    Talking of Gordon’s Conference promises, I wonder how Gulags for Slags is going? Time we had an update on this flagship Labour policy. The media never seem to report on it.


  293. 287.

    “the Government has’t published a Green paper setting out options including the sale of Wales to Liechtenstein or compulsory euthanasia at 60.”

    We’re still waiting for green papers on ‘Options for Removal of Saddam Hussein’ and ‘Making the Bank of England Independent.’


  294. http://conservativehome.blogs.com/centreright/2010/02/fairytales-like-a-robin-hood-tax-wont-help-anyone.html

    As Brown and his media luvvie chums have renamed the Tobin tax the “Robin Hood tax” (guffaw) - what will they come up with for Gordo’s death tax ?

    Saint Peter’s Gate Toll ?
    Coffin Concession ?
    Slab Stamp Duty ?


  295. Southam Observer - is that you Tim, in one of your many personalities.


  296. 287 Oops, actually I think it was actually a pretty good point, you were making much the same case to SO I see.


  297. Looks like Tim has been writing a guest post for Will Straw

    http://www.leftfootforward.org/2010/02/camerons-popularity-slips-as-browns-rises/


  298. 280 It is, however, a proposal that the government is considering. It’s not something that the Conservatives have invented out of nowhere.


  299. I didn’t see todays PMQ’s but if Cameron went “down and dirty”, then good’o.

    Thats the way to go; no use being nice to a man that has helped destroy our country.


  300. 256 Over the past 20 years the single largest source of immigration into Scotland has been middle aged+ English people taking advantage of faster increasing house prices in particularly the south of England to enable them to buy a similar or larger house in e.g. Inverness for a fraction of the price, banking the rest.

    If you walk into any of the shopping centres or supermarkets in Inverness you will most frequently hear Home Counties accents spoken by 50/60 something middle class early retirees and lifestyle change couples. Their arrival has been one of the greatest successes of the past 20 years as they have in the main brought money, enthusiasm and interest into communities which in many cases were becoming moribund. They run the local community groups and charities where locals can’t be bothered or have given up interest. Again in the case of Inverness, large housing estates have been built along the southern periphery of the city to house them.


  301. How about the “coffin dodger tax”. Don’t die and you get away with it.


  302. 280 It is untrue because there is no policy to introduce a Death Tax.

    Gordon Brown was asked to deny there was a policy on a death tax three times and declined to do so on all 3 occasions.

    - give three chances to deny something, and avoiding doing so gives the impression (rightly or wrongly) that there is some credence to it.


  303. 295 – “Southam Observer - is that you Tim, in one of your many personalities”

    It most certainly is not, Southam is a respected poster in this site – even though he does sometimes forget Thatcher left power 20 years ago. ;)


  304. 109.Ted, I hope this Labour figure for the costs doesn’t turn out to be a very long term con. They have legislated to bring the deficit down by half in one Parliament.
    Look at what they promised with tuition fee’s, and now look at the current state of further education down South.
    Up here is Scotland, I suspect the situation may even be worse in the longer term, I hope the Labour/Libdem coalition planned well into the future when they were flogging their own more short term electoral policies.


  305. 303 - Thank God for that. Sorry for shamefully lumping you in as a Timbot, I apologize.


  306. 285 Then you are screwed.

    Sell everything you own. Destroy your dredit cards. use only cash. Change your identity. Have your fingerprints erased. Then go somewhere you have no connection with at all. And lie low.

    That might just delay being found by the people serving his writ…


  307. 300 ER

    which if I understand Eck’s citizenship policy, all would become Scots overnight.


  308. 291 - I am just interested in the fact that the Tories have gone negative when they do not need to. And I think they have chosen the wrong thing to do it on, because what theyare claiming is not true.

    Obviously, it has provided a great deal of cheer to my Tory chums on here, but out in the big wide world I am not so sure that it will be universally welcomed.

    Cameron has spent three years trying to decontaminate the Tory brand. He has said that he wants to end the old politics. He has stated he wants to be open and frank withthe British peple. And he has sanctioned a poster that makes a false claim and is designed to worry some of the most vulnerable people in society because he think that it may win him a few more votes.


  309. Would it be true to say that there is stiff opposition to the death tax? :-)


  310. 286 - Thats the point, they don’t. Countless times I have contacted my local Tory MP and he has never offered any reasoning for the votes of comments he has made in parliament.

    He wouldn’t e-mail me back about his controversial burka comments either.

    275 - Pure satire? I could easily prove that I’m not taking the piss. I am 18 and I am a student. Is that hard to understand or are you simply just as out of touch as the rest of them?


  311. 300. Easterross - semi serious question - my parents still live north of the border - have you any idea when I have to start pretending that my kids live with them so that they can get free tuition at a Scottish University ?


  312. Far more politically significant in my opinion is the extraordinary case defended by David Milliband which makes it look as though the British Government supports torture. What an idiot.


  313. 308. I agree - that poster could backfire.


  314. Mike Wrote;

    “So who won? In terms of the PMQ encounter it was Cameron. But I can’t help but wonder whether the blue team have diminished themselves a bit on the way.”

    All’s fair in love and war, Mike. Especially when you dealing with someone that lies and scheme’s like Brown.


  315. 294 - It’s the “Fair Care Fee (we ♥ the NCS)”


  316. 264. Joshua, you write extremely well for an 18 year old student. Whilst I agree with very little of what you said, the way you expressed it was first class (no need for the Christ though).

    You write so much better than most 18 year old students and seem so well informed that, how can I put it, you almost seem too good to be true.


  317. 294. Or perhaps one that would appeal to Python fans.

    The Norwegian Blue Tax.


  318. 307. “which if I understand Eck’s citizenship policy, all would become Scots overnight.”

    Absolutely. That’s a good thing, isn’t it?


  319. 264 Joshua

    I can see no reason as to why the Tories could possibly do better with education bar finding a way to improve exam results (which I think is down to the corruption of the exam boards not to do with the Government at all).

    That about sums it up Joshua.

    I suggest you put your head down and make sure you get a 2(1). It is about the only way you’ll get employment under the Tories.

    P.S. Keep your fiver for a round of drinks. Your examiners are more likely to test the breadth and depth of your knowledge than the size of your wallet.


  320. 310 joshua

    right, so you weren’t born when Section 28 was passed 22 years ago but it is a major part of your life.

    Funnily enough, I have 19 year old daughter, and you communicate nothing like her and her friends.


  321. 307 Alanbrooke I would certainly put them ahead in the queue before the likes of Sir Sean “I know what Scots want even though I couldn’t possibly live in Scotland” Connery, Patron Saint of the SNP.

    311 TGHF sorry I have no idea. I suggest that you speak nicely to your parents and ask them to take your kids when they reach 5th year in England, 4th year in Scotland so they do 2 years and gain Scottish qualifications. Either that or when they finish school they get on to the voters roll at your parents home, take a year out during which they do work in Scotland and then apply. Maybe you should ask your parents to seek guidance from their local MSP.


  322. 320. “Funnily enough, I have 19 year old daughter, and you communicate nothing like her and her friends.”

    Forgive me if I’m misunderstanding you, but are you offering that up as some kind of ‘proof’ that Joshua isn’t who he says he is? If so, words fail me.


  323. 318 JK

    of course it is, assuming the locals are happy with the situation.


  324. How about this for a poster.

    “Your funeral just cost your family £20,000 under Labour”

    or

    “Usually, in robberies, you get robbed and then die, Labour do it in reverse”


  325. 321. Cheers - would be nice if I could just put them on the voters roll in Scotland then send them on a gap year with a couple of weeks casual work either side - bingo - free tuition.


  326. 322 JK

    if words fail you James that would be a recorded first.


  327. 325. The flip side of course is if granny croaks it during a visit down here I’ll have to put her in the car boot and drive the stiff 500 miles north to avoid paying £20k to Gordon ;)


  328. 312 Roger for once you and I agree totally. The UK Government is trying hard to establish it supports the torture of UK citizens while claiming the contrary is the case. If the USA doesn’t want evidence of the torture of foreign citizens made public then it simply shouldn’t carry out the torture in the first place.

    I just hope when the case goes to the HoL, it also has the courage to defy Millibland the Elder and his US masters.


  329. 320. ‘Funnily enough, I have 19 year old daughter, and you communicate nothing like her and her friends’

    Maybe Joshua doesn’t own horses?

    Does no one feel embarrassed at the way they jeer at any non Tory who dares to speak their mind. This isn’t an offshoot of Whites you know. Don’t be bullied Joshua!


  330. 326. No answer to my question - that indeed speaks volumes. If you’ve really never met an articulate 18-year-old you need to get out more.


  331. The interesting part about this death tax debate, is that it is highlighting one of the key benefits of federalising power:

    It is very hard for a constituent part of a federal structure to impose punitive taxation, as another part will offer a way to dodge such taxes. It only works at the margins in regions with something distinctive to offer. eg, London could get away with marginally higher property/income taxes than Cornwall.

    Quickly devolving power and federalising the political structure is good for the tories.


  332. Reposting this as it got lost at the end of a previous thread, edited down a bit…

    Having to pay for a ‘national care service’ will just be one more reason for many to spend a life being looked after by the state, happy in the knowledge that you will get the care along with those who have to pay.

    I’m more than happy that my NI and tax goes towards looking after those who are in genuine need of the benefits system. However, I can see a great many people feeling betrayed, if in old age, they are paying even more tax so that others who have chosen to live their lives on benefits can get the same care regardless.

    That may sound awful and selfish, but it’s not aimed at those who genuinely haven’t been able to work throughout their lives.

    I would suggest it will cause significant trouble and unrest in fact and I predict this debate will move towards a very hard line on benefits culture and ‘the work shy’.

    Many of the problems we face, socially and financially, can only start to be solved if we deal with the shameful dependency and abuse of benefits created by this Labour government.

    The message I hope Cameron is going to promote would be something like this:-

    We cannot afford to be looking after so many people anymore who are actually quite able to contribute or shouldn’t be recieving help in the first place.

    If you genuinely need support, we’ll be there for you every step of the way. We will provide you with a safety net while you get back on your feet or if need long-term support and social care.

    But, to the rest… You’ve had a good run, now it’s time to do your bit under a Conservative government whether you like it or not.

    No? - well, sorry to hear you feel that way, but things are going to be tough for you in the future… it’s your choice.


  333. “from eye spy MP

    George Osborne and Richard Branson heading to Osborne’s office in Norman Shaw South…election endorsement coming? “


  334. 330 Sadly JK after a decade of Lib-Lab misrule our 18 year olds are more illiterate than our 28 year olds. Vote yellow get Gray


  335. 297 glassfet

    A great find.

    “tim” - Felix Grenfell Bozek, an intern at the Fabian Society

    But surely it should be Felix Grenfell-Bozek

    Perhaps Felix is hoping Dave will quote him during the next PMQs.

    P.S. Note to Felix.
    Stop sulking and come back. I’m missing your lies.


  336. “Usually, in robberies, you get robbed and then die”

    Hmmm….no.


  337. 329 Roger

    neither does my daughter, nor does she have a place in France.


  338. 297 Doesn’t sound like ‘tim’. That article was guest written by Felix Grenfell Bozek, listed on Google as a male model, educated at Latymer selective Grammar school and Oxford University. On the other hand…


  339. 329 - Maybe you could mentor Joshua, Roger?


  340. To paraphrase Mr Franklin: the only things certain with Labour are death AND taxes.


  341. In Adam Ant style:

    Stand and deliver your money and your life.


  342. 329. “Maybe Joshua doesn’t own horses?”

    *APPLAUSE* :grin:

    (to coin a term)


  343. 330 JK

    funnily enough James I meet very articulate 18 year olds all the time and will soon be popping out to pick one up from basketball.


  344. 335. from the comments :D

    “especially if your name is Grenfell-Bozek and you went to the £12,465 a year Latymer public school”


  345. 333 Branson is going to be heading a campaign to soothe the jitters of first-time Conservative voters.

    It’ll be termed “Virgin Tories”.


  346. 337
    I think you’ve got this the wrong way round – Joshua only sounds like an astroturfer because the bunker brigade collectively have the reasoning skills of an 18-year-old…

    Joshua, what are you views on Maggie Thatcher?


  347. 308.Southern Observer, I don’t think this is negative campaigning as we know it under New Labour. Just remind which bit of the poster has been successfully rebutted by Labour. Have they been flying such a policy? Has New Labour become old Labour as the Brownites embrace the core vote?
    And how would you portray Labour’s stealth taxation over the last thirteen years? Where did all the money go, and why didn’t Labour put anything away for a rainy day? If that is not the biggest rip off, I don’t know what is.


  348. re 264 Joshua

    endless [unpaid for] renovations, new [unpaid for] science labs, new [unpaid for]sports hall, new [unpaid for] computer rooms, new [unpaid for] computer, new [unpaid for] library and new [unpaid form] technologies

    You’ll be paying off the dodgy PFI deals for all the above for the rest of your working life. Your children will be paying off the interest on all the other government borrowings.


  349. 320 (alanbrooke) - Do you want to see my facebook? Or will you at that point still keep denying that I’m telling the truth? I’m speaking from my own opinion and stuff like Section 28, even if I wasnt born when it came in, affected people right up until the year 2000 (I was alive then btw, to save you the mathematics). Oh and sorry your daughter interacts nothing like me. I guess that means I’m not 18. Or does it ACTUALLY mean that not everyone is the same?


  350. 345. Sounds like Joshua is half way to qualifying.


  351. 329 Roger

    Stop grooming. Joshua is reading Physics not Media Studies.

    We may not be up to Whites but I’ll settle for The Carlton Club.


  352. Is the younger brother of Sussana and Anastasia on duty today?


  353. I agree with Mike that the Conservatives’ strategy on this has diminished them, albeit that Brown’s mishandling of the matter at PMQs appears to have allowed them to get away with it.

    I don’t particularly mind the Conservatives going negative but I think the bigger point here is that they took an unnecessary risk. It paid off but it could easily have seriously hurt them if the message had reached the public conscience that the Tories are prepared to lie about Labour’s plans. As it is, Brown’s obfuscation has belatedly bestowed some credibility on the campaign.

    The even bigger issue is that the Tories don’t have a ready-made policy response. It is not acceptable to still be talking in vague terms about possible options this close to the election. I like the sound of their optional insurance idea and believe it to be soundly based in Conservative ideology, but the bones need to be fleshed out and given life.

    I cling to hope that the Tories are deliberately fighting a phoney war, not disclosing how advanced their policies are. But as time marches on my fear grows that they are not as prepared for government as I thought, and hoped, that they would be.

    That said, I shall still be voting Conservative in the general election with joy in my heart (futile though it is in Bethnal Green and Bow)*

    * and subject to London Borough of Tower Hamlets not unilaterally removing me from the electoral roll. Again.


  354. 349

    I’d just ignore anyone who claims you aren’t who you say you are. This is a talk board. You can’t really prove identity.


  355. The Labourites are getting themselves into a tizzy-wizzy over the ‘Death Tax’ proposal. What I want to know is: what was Andy Burnham doing in the Guardian only two days ago boasting that he was going to get Gordon’s backing for the idea? Has Burnham hung Gordon out to dry?


  356. 343. “funnily enough James I meet very articulate 18 year olds all the time and will soon be popping out to pick one up from basketball.”

    Come on then, enlighten us. If Joshua’s articulateness isn’t the dead giveaway that he isn’t 18, then what is exactly? I’d suggest you’re going to have to do a lot better than “Section 28 was passed before you were born”.


  357. 345.Mark, :D


  358. 343 Alanbroke

    popping out

    ?


  359. 348: Chris A @ 16:30

    “You’ll be paying off the dodgy PFI deals for all the above for the rest of your working life. Your children will be paying off the interest on all the other government borrowings.”

    Unless he does the sensible thing and clears off to another country once he has had his education.


  360. 354 - It is hard to ignore though when people my age are the ones who for years have come off negative in the media. The list of our downfalls are endless. According to the right wing media people my age couldn’t read when 11, have poor qualifications, can’t get into University, carry knives, wear hoodies (*guilty*), are foul mouthed and all sit on street corners tormenting the damaged middle classes.

    I need to stick up for myself or else it seems like I’ve conceded.


  361. On topic. The moral high ground is well worth holding for a party ten points ahead. It’s quite extraordinary that they should choose to vacate it for a poster whose veracity is at best dubious.

    Maybe they really do think the polls are running against them?


  362. 352 dr spyn

    Oh Anastasia.

    Isn’t she a member of the Nastia Party?


  363. 359. Ideal route for Joshua would be to get free tuition in Scotland then sod off to a resource rich country like Oz, Canada or Norway.

    Only risk is catching cancer in Scotland because the treatment up there is worse than Libya.


  364. 328. Easterross - out of interest, if you had a chance to prevent via the use of torture a nuclear terrorist attack in the UK, would you rule it out?


  365. 360

    Oh come on. No one young takes that stuff seriously. It was exactly the same for me 10 years ago, and no one I knew cared that the Daily Mail said that standards were slipping. We just wanted to get the best we could.


  366. I can prove who I am.

    http://reportercaps.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=artwork&action=print&thread=17847

    See?


  367. 360 - Joshua, there are quite a few astroturfers come on here, so a lot of new posters get suspected of that, especially when have passionate views that aren’t Tory.

    You come across as genuine enough to me. Welcome.


  368. Joshua, come to the next pb.com bash to prove you are who you say you are - and we’ll buy you a drink. Can we say fairer than that?


  369. 264: Joshua

    Just out of interest, do you see any link between the “investment” in education and the horrific debt the country is mired in?

    And do you think this was worth it, given not even you believe the exam results have genuinely improved?

    Also why is it necessarily good that more and more people go on to higher education? If they were genuinely achieving more in school (which you don’t believe, and nor do I) then it might be valuable, but where do you draw the line? 40% of 18 year-olds going to University? 50%? More?? Surely there comes a point when people are just not up to doing a degree.

    The targets, central control and vast inefficient expenditure in the education sector has not been a positive of the labour years for me - quite the opposite. It is not enough to say “we’ve spent x billion and here’s a shiny new lab”. The question is did we get what we wanted and needed for our x billion, could we have spent it better or more wisely or got it for half the crippling ongoing future cost thanks to the genius of PFI?

    (You have heard of PFI? Oh never mind, enjoy “uni”, have one for me…)


  370. “Over the past few years, Latymer Upper School has produced the academically brilliant but notably thin Lily Cole as well as Aquascutum’s Gabriel Gill-Andrews and male model and Oxford University student Felix Grenfell-Bozek. ”

    http://www.nnet-server.com/server/common/conschools60.htm


  371. 363 - Charming. Oh and as someone not from Scotland I wouldn’t be entitled to free tuition. Only half price.

    I must say I really am shocked at the reaction from the majority of people on here!


  372. 357

    But will it make those single mums vote?


  373. 368. “Joshua, come to the next pb.com bash to prove you are who you say you are - and we’ll buy you a drink. Can we say fairer than that?”

    Yes.


  374. 360. Joshua, you may find it interesting to refer to the “moral panic” theory of Cohen, with reference to the creation of “folk devils” by the media.


  375. Make me an offer and my mum will adopt you to save the other 50%.


  376. Hmmm - only yesterday Labour put up a poster fom which we were all meant to take a message that the wicked baby eating Tories couldn’t care a jot about people suffering from Cancer.I would have thought that the Tories poster was pretty small beer compared to that!


  377. 63

    ‘“Because you have already paid tax on the earnings that provided that inheritance. Basically, it is considered as double taxation.”

    As opposed to VAT, Fuel Tax, Council Tax… ?

    More accurately its triple taxation,tax paid on earnings of which some is saved,tax then paid on savings and then taxed for a third time on death.


  378. 373 - Joshua’s a student, you can’t expect him to buy you a drink.


  379. Will Straw has deleted the reference to Felix’s private schooling:

    http://www.andybarefoot.com/politics/tombstone.php?poster=213599

    New Labour - hypocrites are us.


  380. Seth. ‘….I’m missing your lies’

    I’m sure it was a typo and you meant ‘lines’

    I think we can all say bottoms up to that


  381. 371: Joshua @16:41

    “I must say I really am shocked at the reaction from the majority of people on here!”

    Welcome to the world of grown ups. When you get outside you will meet far worse, believe me.


  382. 368
    Speaking of which, when is the next PB bash?


  383. I think Burnham is probably getting beasted mercilessly in McDoom’s dungeon as we speak and it’ll put a spanner in the whole election operation for a few days.


  384. 368 - I’d love to but I assume they’re in London(?). I live in the middle of Northamptonshire and I’m still learning to drive. Plus wouldn’t it be a bit weird (no offence guys!).

    369 - Before I make my point can I just say I didn’t say people weren’t achieving more in school. I was trying to say that there is still room for improvement, but a lot of exam results are no way reflective of students like myself who have been screwed over by the exam boards such as AQA and Edexcel.

    But in terms of the investment that has been made, its definitely been worth it. From an average achieving secondary school I have had access to the newest technology and state of the art science labs. You go to the older parts of the building and its astonishing to see the difference. Even with some buildings having less than a decade between them in age.

    In regards to University I think that the more people in higher education the better. It enables people like me to pursue an education that was not offered to me in secondary school (I mean what schools do you know that teach the range of courses that Universities do!). I will be doing politics (and going by some peoples comments towards me for the better!) and its something that I have never been exposed to at school, even if it means there will be a struggle to get in (which spurs me on to study harder).

    Oh and a lot of money that has gone into funding new developments in our school have come from the National Lottery (a John Major “thing” wasnt it? Sorry otherwise, I have probably got it totally wrong.)


  385. 381. “Welcome to the world of grown ups. When you get outside you will meet far worse, believe me.”

    What an utterly contemptible comment. Joshua, ignore, you’ve got every right to be annoyed, and you’re only getting this because you’ve got right under their skin. They just can’t get their heads round the idea that someone with your views could possibly be real and not a ‘troll’ or an ‘astroturfer’.

    HurstLlama is beginning to accept you as real, so you’ve moved on to the ‘immature’ phase. You’ll be making real progress when you’re merely ‘brainwashed’.


  386. Joshua, if you want to be shocked, you may find that posters on this site are quite restrained, but if you want to read something stronger post your comments on section 28, and your praise of all things Brown on http://www.order-order.com. You will so enjoy the banter there.


  387. Just been re-reading Burnham’s spilling of the beans to the Guardian on Monday. Worse than I thought! He says that, although Gordon and Mandy back the ‘Death Tax’, the more lily-livered members of the Government wanted to keep it quiet until after the GE. No wonder the ‘Consensus Talks’ broke down. Burnham went public to declare the ‘Death Tax’ a fait accompli.


  388. 378 - “Joshua’s a student, you can’t expect him to buy you a drink.”

    Quoting this for truth :)


  389. 379 No wonder. Reading Felix’s biography, he sounds like a Top-hatted toff from the Toynbee school of hypocritical journalism.


  390. 361 - Absolutely right.


  391. 385 - Cheers James, appreciate your comments.

    I guess, being 18, I have a very different viewpoint than a lot of the posters on here. I know what state education is actually like these days and don’t just forge an opinion cooked up from statistics compiled for news stories. You see, I’ll win them over soon ;)


  392. @371:

    If you’re shocked at the relatively benign commentariat of PBC, I’d hate to think of the emotional trauma you’d suffer at the hands of Guido’s windowlickers, or the CiFtards, or Sunny Hundal’s band of bleating ming-mongs.

    We’re actually all rather lovely. Except the Cybernats who kindap English children and force them to work down haggis mines.


  393. 390 – SO, what are your thoughts on Labour’s very negative poster of yesterday?


  394. 385 - The problem is that Joshua is state school educated, writes well and argues coherently. According to many PBers that is not possible. Those of us who also have 18 year olds that have been through the state system know that it is.


  395. “I think that the more people in higher education the better”

    Well, we’ve seen that happen, and has it resulted in a better life for all? I don’t think so. The fact is that higher education is not suitable for everyone, and is not the best option for everyone.


  396. 393 - I honestly haven’t seen it. But a general point I would make is that negative politics is the last throw of the dice for the desperate. It surprises me that the Tories have bothered to sink to that level given the lead they have.


  397. 384 Joshua

    “its definitely been worth it”

    OK. Have to agree to differ there. Money has been spent like water on shiny kit, expensively mortgaged new buildings and dubiously valid “classroom assistants”. And at the end of it all, I don’t really think our school leavers are signifcantly better prepared for life and the modern world. Plus this has all been done with scant regard to what the country at a macroeconomic level can actually AFFORD.

    “the more people in higher education the better”

    This is just daft. The drop-out rate is already colossal, which is very wasteful. Why saddle yourself with debt to do a degree which will by definition be worth less and less as more and more people lower down the achievement scale get them? And why should taxpayers fund this lunacy?

    But anyway, welcome to the site, good to have these discussions!


  398. Don’t worry, I’m not intimidated by the reaction. I just find it odd that “grown ups” find it so hard to believe that an 18 year old might come on here expecting to contribute.


  399. 391

    Er, I have 2 kids in the state system, so don’t assume I know nothing about it


  400. @396:

    You always take the shot at the open goal.


  401. re 384 Joshua again what investment? You do realise, don’t you, that none of your flash new school buildings have been paid for. it was all done on the never never.

    And you seem to be unaware that when Major set up the lottery it was specifically forbidden to be used to pay for things that central government revenue should pay for. new Labour changed the law to allow that.


  402. Joshua - in peace, and in the belief that you really are 18. I would like to know more about your hostility to Tories on the grounds of Section 28. It strikes me as an under-exploited opportunity for Labour; in fact, I hold Cameron’s voting against its repeal as something rather more telling than the fact that he went to Eton. However, I have felt that communicating the homophobic record of so many tories in the 1980s/ 90s is difficult, because so much of it relates to debates and policies that lie in the past - am genuinely interested in your views on this one.


  403. @398:

    You do seem remarkably lucid for an eighteen year old. But then, if you’ve found your way here, you’re clearly far from average…

    Anyway, you can hold your own in a fight. And on PBC that’s one of the traits that matter.


  404. Who wants to be Head of Communications at Islington Council? 62-66 Grand for one year (to cover maternity leave)

    Deficit? What deficit:

    http://jobs.guardian.co.uk/job/960267/head-of-communications/


  405. Best Picture : *The Hurt Locker* vs *Avatar*

    When I wrote 2 days ago that I was going long on Hurt Locker — largely because of the voting system adopted his year for the oscar of “Best Picture”, our SeanT and Another Dave took default; “no, Avatar will win Best Picture” Seant replied (more elegantly than that, of course).

    Well folks, today Hendrik Hertzberg, The New Yorker, writes that the new instant-runoff system might give *The Hurt Locker* a boost over its most likely competitor.

    ‘Avatar’ is polarizing,” he writes. “So is James Cameron [Avatar's Director]. He may have fattened the bank accounts of a sizable bloc of Academy members — some three thousand people drew ‘Avatar’ paychecks — but that doesn’t mean that they all long to recrown him king of the world. (As he has admitted, his people skills aren’t the best.) These factors could push ‘Avatar’ toward the bottom of many a ranked-choice ballot.”

    http://www.newyorker.com/talk/comment/2010/02/15/100215taco_talk_hertzberg

    I don’t say he’s right, and SeanT’s wrong. I just say that I’m not the only one thinking “The Hurt” have a good shot at this…


  406. 379 googling I find a mention of “male model and Oxford University student Felix Grenfell-Bozek”

    delicious if it is tim.

    http://www.nnet-server.com/server/common/conschools60.htm


  407. Who will win Norwich South… Upthread

    I wrote a piece on PB2 in October about this. (Can’t link as am on the BB)

    Since then, the Green Candidate has resigned as the Group Leader on the council, which has freed-up some of his time.

    Charles Clarke keeps blotting his copybook. He doesn’t want 5 more years of Brown either. He’s going to feel the full force of the Gerrymander blowback. .

    The LibDem’s faded away so perhaps the Tory, Antony Little will come up the middle on the basis that the anti-tory vote will split 3-ways so he can come up the middle. I had wondered whether the anti-Labour vote would go to the Green. That’s now a certainty given that ministers have cheated local voters of their chance to hold Labour to account.

    Green or Tory? Green quite likely but Tory chance is best value bet.

    Bunnco - your man on the spot


  408. Joshua.
    Under the Tories, I had a Student Grant - my Finals were a week before election day 1997, thankfully.


  409. 401 - I know this will seem naive but I understand that no government will get it right so there is either the lack of investment route where schools go unfunded and in desperate need of improvement in their department. Or you go down the big investment route. Its costly and sacrifices will be made, as well as decisions that not everyone will agree with, but in the long run the sort of schools I have attended will have found it hard to keep up with the private schools who don’t seem to suffer from a lack of resources. I say this because I have friends both in state schools like mine and in private education. At no point have I ever felt that my opportunities have been wasted or that I have been held back. I feel so honoured that I have been in a position where my school can provide me with chance of a lifetime opportunities and a fantastic education… FOR FREE!


  410. SO

    Let’s stop with the fetishisation of state schools, you don’t choose your parents. Yes, I went to one. Inner London no less. Big deal.


  411. re 402 John B stop living in the past. Most of the shadow cabinet weren’t in parliament in the 1990s. It’s like saying that we should be against the Tories becuase they voted against the abolition of slavery. People change, parties change.


  412. http://www.communitycare.co.uk/Articles/2010/02/09/113763/Labour-rules-out-16320000-death-tax.htm

    So what gives? - yesterday someone within the Department of Health ruled out the flat fee, but today in PMQ’s no such statement or suggestion…

    As follows:-

    “A Department of Health spokesperson said: “There is no decision yet on how the necessary reform of social care will be funded, but a £20,000 flat fee after death is not an option we are considering.

    The denial effectively rules out one option mooted in last year’s green paper, which proposed the introduction of a compulsory insurance system to fund personal care for older people.”


  413. If Tim was employed by the FS, was he being paid by the hour or by the number of posts?


  414. 405. I’m with you Phillipe - have invested a medium sized sum on “Hurt”


  415. 394 Southam Observer

    Those of us who also have 18 year olds

    You shock me. I thought it was only our Bangkok resident thriller generator that could claim that.


  416. Joshua isn’t a new poster, he’s been posting on and off for a while . Glad to see he has the cullions to fight back the inevitable attacks on new left wing posters.


  417. So Burnham spilled the beans first eh..
    Can all the NuLab bots now apologise about the Tories being the one to break the concensus.


  418. On the other hand, few people who have seen “The Hurt Locker”—a real Iraq War story, not a sci-fi allegory—actively dislike it, and many profoundly admire it. Its underlying ethos is that war is hell, but it does not demonize the soldiers it portrays, whose job is to defuse bombs, not drop them. Even Republicans (and there are a few in Hollywood) think it’s good. It will likely be the second or third preference of voters whose first choice is one of the other “small” films that have been nominated. And “The Hurt Locker” has special appeal with two important and overlapping constituencies. If it’s picked, its director, Kathryn Bigelow, will become the first woman to have directed a Best Picture winner. This would please women and men who like to see glass ceilings smashed, whether or not they were Hillary Clinton supporters. The other group is ex-wives, who are numerous in the movie colony. James Cameron has four. No. 3 is Kathryn Bigelow. She and her ex-husband are said to get along fine. Still, there’s such a thing as identity politics…


  419. 384 Joshua…what are your plans when you enter the job market?


  420. 391. “I know what state education is actually like these days”

    I went to a comprehensive school with excellent new facilities and good teachers back in the 1980s. Labour would have you believe that only they care and only they have invested in education. The modern world did not begin in 1997. There’s no doubt Labour have spent a lot of money, the question that matters is whether or not they’ve spent that money wisely.

    The next decade or two is going to see government spending drop, the world will not end because of this. Hopefully people will see that spending money wisely is more important than spending it lavishly.


  421. 402 - I’m happy to speak more about this issue. As someone with gay friends, lesbian friends being a bisexual myself (don’t worry, I have straight friends before you all accuse me of dreaming up some sort of overly diverse friends group). I have seen first hand the hurt the playground tactics of young people has caused on young gay people. For me, I see this as a smale scale equivalent of the damage that was done due to Section 28. You don’t need to be an idiot or someone who has lived through the 80s to know what it meant for gay people and the damage it caused. Its just the idea that in the late 20th century Britain that a government would want to separate a group of people so blatantly from society and condemn them as “wrong” is quite frankly disgraceful.

    How can we live accepting that “a lot of ground has been made” yet forget the damage that was done 20 years ago as if Howard and his cronies were maybe just a little misinformed. This isn’t just a law that was misjudged, but a law that affected the lives of millions of people who were basically given a massive f*** you from the government. Now this isn’t me praising the work of Labour as I still feel they could have done a lot more and took a too populist route when it came to homosexuality.


  422. 163 Slackbladder :D


  423. Read all about it - the Labour NEC minutes from Jan 26.

    http://www.labourblogs.com/public-blog/annblack/26965/


  424. ****betting post (kind of) ****

    Bunnico re: Norwich South

    Aren’t the greens @ 8/1? Good value?


  425. 404 - Ooh I fancy a move to a day job.

    Nice dosh.

    On education, I’ve seen a thousand ads saying ‘be a teacher’ so I have been looking into it and have discovered you need unpaid work experience in the classroom to make it worth applying. I’ve written to my local primary school volunteering and have been told that they can’t help me.

    So they reckon on that they want teachers - I’d have thought that a professional 30-year-old Cambridge-educated man would be filling a shortage in the primary school sector - yet if you actually want to take a £10k+ pay cut to do something to help the next generation you get a closed door.

    It seems like a waste of money all those taxpayer-funded adverts.

    And in Scotland it looks even worse, judging by the cut in training places. Do they still run the ‘be a teacher’ ads there?


  426. 420 - I was shocked to go on my old primary school’s website and find that every class has a classroom assistant. Are they really that beneficial? I never had one thoughout my schooling but it never felt deficient.

    Or is it more a case of an extra pair of eyes in case of kids playing up?


  427. “People change, parties change.”

    Indeed they do. Labour used to support unilateral nuclear disarmament.

    396/400 I quite agree. Labour had a big lead in the run up to 1997, but they never missed an opportunity to put the boot into Major’s government.


  428. From those NEC minutes

    “Two weeks earlier, members of the organisation committee had forcefully expressed grassroots anger at continuing outbreaks of indiscipline at senior levels… but the NEC ended up adopting Dennis Skinner’s advice to deny the troublemakers the oxygen of publicity.

    We may return to them after the election.”


  429. TimB

    From that NEC link:

    ”Most speakers opposed any change to the voting system.”


  430. @424:

    David, you work for News International, right? Do you live in or around Wapping then?


  431. 415 - We are of a similar age I believe.


  432. 384

    Hi Joshua, welcome to pb.com from an occasional poster.

    I would be interested to hear why you feel you have been “screwed over” by AQA and Edexcel - I used to work for an education quango so have a bit of interest in the subject.

    As a contrast, I am over twice your age, I went to a state sixth form college which was excellent and which offered a range of courses, as back then different exam boards offered different A Level syllabuses (sometimes more than one) and schools could pick and choose. It seems to me we have lost a lot of variety and choice through increasing centralised control.


  433. 409 Joshua, you are getting it from all sides so I am sorry for joining in, but I think you have fallen into the classic lefty trap of believing that investment/spending of itself narrows the gap between the results of state and private education.

    Decades ago schools managed to deliver excellent education without top of the range computer systems, electronic whiteboards, multi-sensory spaces, all-weather outdoor playing surfaces and the other paraphanalia of modern state (and private) schooling. Somewhere along the line the essential truth that education is about the delivery of knowledge and the development of skills has been lost, subordinated to the idea that the spend per head is indicative of progress of itself. But the result is an illusion.

    Rebased exam marking and the demolition of some social prejudices have led to a significant increase in state school representation at the Oxbridge universities, which is one positive indicator. However, social mobility has declined over the last 30 years and there appears to be an increasing concentration of privately schooled individuals within the political, cultural and professional elite. There is no sign yet of Labour’s extra spending changing that, although in fairness the results won’t be known for another 40 years!


  434. 424. You should be OK if you just spend a couple of days in a school somewhere seeing what’s what. That’s all my other half did before applying for her PGCE.

    If you do go for it - good luck!


  435. 238 Marquee Mark

    Too late - Kristin and I have already gone into partnership on that proposal!

    As to the actualite - The proposal is not for a death tax (any more than US healthcare were to have death panels). Those of you in England should note that the payment suggested is actually one to be paid during your lifetime - which you can defer until the time of your death.

    Kristin - sorry, our scheme won’t make any cash after all as the monies would be levied, where appropriate, on the estates of the dead English wherever they died.


  436. 428 - there are a lot of nuggets there, and it all seems to mainly mean more spending, more ‘rights’, and bigger government.

    Ed Miliband, who is co-ordinating the manifesto, said that this time expectations were higher but resources more constrained. We must be bold, learn from errors, adapt to new situations, and offer the right kind of change. Themes included broadening the industrial base, developing a new kind of economy, social care, housing, reforms to the political system, and justifying the role of government in spreading opportunity and insuring against risk, in contrast to the Tories’ hands-off small state approach.

    Pete Willsman reiterated the importance of basic rights to jobs and housing: the working class did not obsess about abstract deficits.

    So deficit cutting not priority 1 then….


  437. 423 - I took the same view, but William Hill restricted me to the princely stake of £6.30 on this proposition. They then restricted me to £12 on a bet at 5/2 that turnout would be between 60 and 65% in the next election. Is this just me or are they no longer accepting bigger stakes?


  438. 430 Southam Observer

    So too is the thriller writer!

    Well nearly. 6-8 years younger I suspect.


  439. 432. A lot of good points there.


  440. 385: James Kelly @ 16:50

    “HurstLlama is beginning to accept you as real, so you’ve moved on to the ‘immature’ phase. You’ll be making real progress when you’re merely ‘brainwashed’.”

    James you can be a complete berk at times. I have never taken Joshua for anything other that what he claims to be (and I recognised his name as a poster that has been around for a while).

    Please do not ascribe motives to me that I don’t have.


  441. 434 The charge would be levied at retirement age so youngsters with parents approaching 65 need to convince them that the bracing air of Aberdeenshire beaches or retirement to the Clydesside paradise of Dunoon is just what they need. Then the Scots will pay for care and there will not be a charge on their estates.

    Go North Old Man, Go North.


  442. On the subject of state vs private sector education - does anyone happen to know how much it costs to put a pupil throug state school? I have a feling it’s not actually that much different from how much it costs to put a child through private school (though are private school fees now taxable? In which case that might have changed) but I’ve got no figures, and I left secondary education half a lifetime ago so my grasp on these things is not as up-to-date as it might be.


  443. 349 joshua

    Sorry, just read your comment, ( been out on a school run )

    No don’t send Facebook details, it’s just not done. If you are who you say you are , then welcome. If not then it will soon be obvious.


  444. 411. Chris A, clearly, it’s not. No one in the current tory party supported slavery. Cameron did, however, vote against the repeal of Section 28. I do genuinely think that provides an attack-line that Labour could do a lot more to exploit.


  445. 423 No - as the Greens demonstrated in the Norwich North by-election, their local election support flatters to deceive. Most Green local voters will vote LD in the General.

    Norwich South is essentially a Lib Dem v Labour battle. If any other party can break through that then it will be the Tories because of the national swing, but looking at the notional figures that is very unlikely. A direct switch from Labour to Tory here makes it more likely that the LDs will win.


  446. 431 - To answer you first, I’d like to start by saying I do personally know people who work for said exam boards in quite high positions and have teachers who are very knowledgable on such issues. I think to explain why I feel screwed over can be outlined in one very easy example. Last year after receiving my AS grade for Drama, a C, I was a little disappointed as I found out that the performance aspect obtained me an E. Either I was awful (my whole group got Es although being praised heavily by many in high authority) or something was wrong. One year later, after now resitting the exam and performing a brand new play we have spent thousands on remarks in many subjects and I have found that my performance marks were wrong by 7! What is even weirder is that exactly half the group went up by 7.. How can we trust any initial marks after this?! Then, months later the other half of the group start receiving new marks. I feel so let down by Edexcel who have sent my teacher on endless courses on why we all did so badly, have charged us endless amounts for remarks and answers and in the end all we get is a rather drastic change of marks.

    Is it not worrying that every candidate was marked wrongly?! (Undermarked by the way..)

    I won’t go into it much more but the English Lit exam (AQA) was surrounded by controversy with grade boundaries being changed after exam papers had been marked and with teachers being told AFTER exams that they had been given the wrong information to pass onto students.

    Its just a rotten system that doesn’t do the hard working students any justice at all.

    432 - I think it is very unfair to suggest that its all been for nothing! Obviously I didn’t experience it before all of this technology orientated school. But did you experience education WITH it? We have two very different viewpoints so it is quite hard for either of us to argue in a balanced way but we’ll try! For example, imagine a school without all the technology when we live in a society where IT based subjects are so popular (and also very important considering the high percentage of IT based jobs in society). Also, aspiring Scientists would suffer if our labs merely had access to a couple of dodgy gas taps, do you not agree?

    We need to innovate and renovate in order to offer young people the best opportunities during their educational years.


  447. 425. “420 - I was shocked to go on my old primary school’s website and find that every class has a classroom assistant. Are they really that beneficial? I never had one thoughout my schooling but it never felt deficient.

    Or is it more a case of an extra pair of eyes in case of kids playing up?”

    If that’s the school’s choice fair enough, but if not then instead of employing X classroom assistants the school might prefer more teachers, or to pay their teachers more and so attract better teachers.

    One good thing about the mess we’re in is that, despite Brown’s rhetoric, the next government will not have more money to spend. Whoever wins will have to improve efficiency, spend what we have more carefully and actually reform our public services; if they don’t they will be booted out at the election after the next.

    Now all we need is to find a political party that’s not mostly composed of thieves, liars or idiots.


  448. 435 — @antifrank

    Try to bet again in a day or two. And again. And again.

    Since 3 weeks, they let me bet about $167 (which is about £100) every 2 days or so on Con Overall Majority, now at 1/2.
    At one point they made a mistake — saying the Next GE “had already started” but normally, they’re letting me do it. In fact, I just had a bet, 10 minutes ago.

    I have to admit however that £12 is a very small maximum!


  449. Cameron did, however, vote against the repeal of Section 28. I do genuinely think that provides an attack-line that Labour could do a lot more to exploit.
    by John B February 10th, 2010 at 5:31 pm
    Cameron has publicly apologised for that. So if you want, yet again, to highlight the difference between a man who can learn a lesson, recognise when he was wrong and admit to it. With Gordon, no you are wrong, wrong, wrong Brown that would be nice, please go ahead.


  450. Tabman from last thread -

    “404 - AFAIK UK Paul is not a Lib Dem.”

    I’m a lib dem voter and have been for a few elections. I’m appalled by labour, scared of the tory right and want my vote to be something other than a protest, who else could I have been voting for?

    If lib dems can’t support proportionality of voting however then there’s really no point though. To vote to make votes *less* proportional is idiotic, in fact it’s downright suicidal, it goes against the idea of PR and shows a lack of brain power on such a scale that it brings into question the whole principles that I thouight were being fought for.

    If lib dem MPs can’t work out that AV is a step in the wrong direction then they don’t deserve votes like mine, they need to get a collective brain otherwise the only way is going to be to abstain.


  451. 445 - What an odd thing to say. So if we were economically well off you’d be wishing we had no money? Its just seems like all you care about is the Tories coming across well and not having a government that wants to do the best for schools.


  452. If Labour would apply the 20k death tax only to cremations, they could spin it as fighting global warming :-)


  453. 442 It just doesn’t matter to more than a very few people. It’s like the attacks on the Conservatives’ allies in the EU Parliament.


  454. 450 - new twist on the carbon footprint ?

    http://static-p3.fotolia.com/jpg/00/06/78/04/400_F_6780450_UenvBX8mwjm2BBEaj0T3mTESwWSeL5cf.jpg


  455. re 424 I’d have thought that a professional 30-year-old Cambridge-educated man would be filling a shortage in the primary school sector

    David you must have realised by now that this government considers you

    1) firstly a paedophile
    2) secondly a Oxbridge educated toff
    3) a dangerous subversive working for the Sun.


  456. 447 And Gordon has a remarkable voting record on civil partnerships, gay adoption, reducing the age of consent, and repealing Section 28…

    http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ln7QnBlGeDY/S1A84DFC5JI/AAAAAAAAA1M/cRSPlCMVaPQ/s1600-h/choudary.png


  457. 445: glw @ 17:34

    Maybe we could just cut out all the nonsense paperwork that teachers have to complete these days and then the teachers would have the time to teach.


  458. 307 Alanbrooke I would certainly put them ahead in the queue before the likes of Sir Sean “I know what Scots want even though I couldn’t possibly live in Scotland” Connery, Patron Saint of the SNP.

    by Easterross February 10th, 2010 at 4:15 pm

    This patron saint ? :D

    http://www.thecontrarianmedia.com/2009/01/zados/


  459. 448 - UKPaul, maybe the libdems have taken a drink of the Gordon Koolade and acted tactically rather than strategically, grabbing for even the slightest potential of being part of a government rather than thinking down the road.


  460. Joshua. Welcome to PB.

    Don’t worry too much about the middle aged numb nuts on PB. They are especially tetchy as the weeks tick by to election day and sadly you’ll only get any sense from Scottish centenarian Jacobites temporarily exiled to Hertfordshire !!

    Jack W is 105.


  461. 451 - Thats not fair and completely untrue. If it mattered to only a “very few people” then there would not have been a need to repeal section 28! The fact is that such an attitude is separating millions of people who, bar sexuality, are no different to you or me.


  462. 449. “445 - What an odd thing to say. So if we were economically well off you’d be wishing we had no money? Its just seems like all you care about is the Tories coming across well and not having a government that wants to do the best for schools.”

    Don’t be daft of course I don’t think that. The point I’m making is that the next government can’t throw money at problems, because the money will not be there to throw. So for a change the next government will actually have to do some of that “efficiency savings” and “public service reform” that political parties always promise but rarely deliver when in government.

    Necessity is the mother of invention.


  463. JohnB another reason I would be very careful about raising the issue of section 28 is kindly laid out here by Mr Dale.
    http://iaindale.blogspot.com/2007/07/gordon-browns-record-on-gay-rights.html
    So do you still think it is a good idea?


  464. Blair’s majorities under AV would have been as follows:

    1997 - majority of 231 seats (actual=179)
    2001 - majority of 187 seats (actual=167)
    2005 - majority of 108 seats (actual=66)

    Would any of these results been healthy for our democracy?

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8506306.stm


  465. re 447

    Cameron did, however, vote against the repeal of Section 28.

    John do you notice that second word “did”? Yes that means in the past tense. Can’t you believe that people change. I used to vote Tory but not now. If I can change why not Cameron. Should we be having a go at all the ex-Communists (including our own dear Nick P) on the Labour benches for their youthful indiscretions.


  466. 408. And *no* tuition fees, not a penny, no matter how rich you were, under the evil tories, no student paid tuition fees and the bulk of them received a student grant.


  467. 432 - Scientists discovered the structure of the universe, how to split the atom, how gravity works, how to make electricity, how to perform open heart surgery and how to grow babies in test tubes (ish) all in an era when most schools only had a couple of leaky gas taps, an ancient bunsen burner and half a cracked magnifying glass in their science cupboard… never underestimate the importance of a foundation in theory!

    FWIW I, like you, went to school at a time when schools had a lot more technology than in the previous decade and a lot less than they would have in the subsequent decade. That’s progress.

    To take your example of IT. Sure, all children should be taught to be computer literate - by which I mean able to use core packages like Word (less so Excel and powerpoint), surf the internet and use it as a learning resource, and send email. It’s not hard to teach that over 12 years of primary and secondary education as part of a broader curriculum. The reality is very few children will ever need mroe advanced computing skills than that, and those who do will likely develop those skills at university or, more likely, at home.

    I won’t patronise you and say that yoi will come to see things differently when you are older - maybe you won’t. But the idea that it is vital for every child to have a laptop, or for every school to have a well resourced IT centre, is just wrong. For years the lily has been gilded. We now need to relearn that an ungilded lily does a bloody fine job in a vase on its own.


  468. Sorry, 465 was @ 444 not 432


  469. Some interesting snippets from Labour’s last NEC. Note the sinister observation at the end. It could get bloody.( hat-tip Speccie CH)

    http://blogs.ft.com/westminster/2010/02/nec-minutes-labour-leaders-not-keen-on-electoral-reform/


  470. 459 - I think he means that there are very few people it matters to today. I think more people are concerned about the money in their pockets. And I say that as a gay man myself.


  471. 450. I am guessing that if they went that route, the announcement would be made by Andy Burn’em. :)


  472. 458 BTW …. As we live in the age of the young Mrs Jack W has advised me to knock a couple of years off my true age …. she’s been doing it for years !!

    Mrs Jack W is almost forty !!


  473. re 454 Plato thanks for that. So at least in March 2003 the young Cameron could make up his mind. What reason John B do you think the Prime Minister had for being absent? Was he correcting his proofs on courage? Or perhaps he was all in a dither over which way to vote? Or perhaps he was wooing Sarah, or had to put the cat out? Which was it do you think.

    And whilst you’re at it who spent millions of our money for two years pursuing the campaign to stop gay people serving in the military to the ECHR and beyond.


  474. 457 - Either they haven’t thought about it properly or have tied themselves in knots overthinking it.

    The question is very simple for a supporter of PR, ‘is this more or less proportional?’, if the answer is less, as it is with AV, then there is no other option than to oppose it.

    As they haven’t opposed it I can’t vote for them on grounds of both fundamental disagreement on one of the main reasons for my vote.

    The other issue that pushed me towards the abstention column was voting for Bercow as speaker, what’s the point if, wanting a PR voting system and an end to the promoting of troughers, the party I could have voted for stick two fingers up at me by both promoting troughers and supporting the least proportional voting system? They may as well go for the triumverate and support ID Cards now…


  475. 459 Seriously, in terms of affecting current voting intentions, the Conservatives’ past record on Section 28 has very little impact. It’s terribly easy to believe that an issue that you are passionately concerned about (I’ve done it myself) is one that the voters are passionately concerned about.

    MORI’s issues index will show you what issues really do get the voters out of bed.


  476. 458 – JackW, still trying to pass yourself off as a teenager I see :roll:

    You are actually 107 -

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2009/12/22/should-the-indycomres-have-heeded-sir-humphreys-advice/#comment-1357096


  477. 469 - very good, Mr Budgie :-)


  478. 463. The reason why section 28 was passed, and right at the time, was that certain pressure organisations were putting into schools the most appalling pro gay educational materials.
    This situation is far worse now, and it isnt just homosexuality that is promoted in schools, but all kinds of currently fashionable isms, there is not even any pretence at impartiality or that the information they present to children as fact, is heavily disputed and the subject of strong debate throughout the nation.

    Section 28 was wrong because of how it was perceived, it said gay people weren’t equal and capable of being a proper family, and wrongly stopped teachers and schools from dealing with gay bullying.

    But that doesnt mean children should be exposed to pro homosexual educational materials at school.


  479. 474 SSC. See 470. :-)


  480. 476 - It shouldn’t be pro any sexuality. People should make up their own minds.


  481. I am suggesting an attack-line, and one upon which there is clear potential for countering the detoxification of the tory brand. While Brown has not been an active supporter of gay rights, he did not vote against the repeal of Section 28. What Cameron’s record on the matter tells me is that he is only homophobic when it is politically expedient to be so. The broader truth here is the immense progress British society has made in the matter of gay rights since 1997.


  482. Evening all.

    The answer to the thread question is the Tories, by a country mile. It could all have been so different.

    Imagine for a moment that when asked to rule out a flat levy the first time, Gordo had just said “yes” and sat down to tumultuous applause. Cameron would have been off script, the media would have scored it a win, and the posters might now be taken down.

    Instead, Cameron loaded the gun and handed it to Gordo, who promptly took aim at his feet and fired. 3 times.

    This is the Prime Minister at the despatch box of the House of Commons, master of all he surveys. Imagine then how badly he might perform in complex negotiations with hostile adversaries.

    Scary.

    5 more years!!!


  483. 473 Indeed - these are October 2009:

    Q1 What would you say is the most important issue facing Britain today?

    Q2 What do you see as other important issues facing Britain today?

    Base: 980 British adults 18+ Q1 % Q1/2%
    Economy/economic situation 32 52
    Crime/law & order/violence/vandalism/ASB 10 26
    Race relations/immigration/immigrants 11 24
    Unemployment/Factory Closure/Lack of Industry 10 22
    National Health Service/Hospitals/Health care 3 16
    Defence/foreign affairs/international terrorism 4 15
    Education/Schools 2 14
    Inflation/prices 4 10
    Morality/individual behaviour/lifestyle 3 9
    Pollution/environment 4 9
    Poverty/inequality 2 6
    Pensions/social security/benefits 1 6
    Housing 1 5
    Drug abuse 1 4
    Low pay/minimum wage/fair wages * 4
    Local government/council tax * 3
    Common Market/EU/Europe/EURO 1 3
    Public services in general * 2
    Taxation * 2
    Petrol prices/fuel * 2
    Nationalisation/Government control of institutions 1 2
    Bird flu/Pandemic Flu/Swine Flu 1 1
    Transport/public transport - 1
    Pound/exchange rate/value of pound * 1
    Nuclear weapons/nuclear war/disarmament * 1
    Countryside/rural life - *
    Trade Unions/Strikes - *
    Scottish/Welsh Assembly/Devolution/Const. reform * *
    Privatisation * *
    Animal welfare - *
    AIDS * *
    GM/GM (Genetically Modified) foods - *
    Northern Ireland - *
    Foot and mouth outbreak/farming crisis - -
    Other 3 8
    Don’t know 5 4


  484. 479 - But it’s hardly a top issue facing people, so how effective will it be?


  485. 476

    http://biztech.caledonianmercury.com/2010/02/08/gay-porn-blunder-of-government-site-for-children/


  486. is the ghost of derek draper rising from the grave?

    http://order-order.com/2010/02/10/labour-hq-still-taking-lines-from-draper/


  487. 478. Yes. The problem is that we enter the strange world that advocates of multiculturalism live. Because the default position is heterosexual, it is the dominant cultural norm, and the experience that appears as normal for the vast majority of children, it is necessary to have excessively pro gay material to combat these inbuilt social prejudices.


  488. Guido really knows his stuff when it comes to the Bunker:

    http://order-order.com/2010/02/10/labour-hq-still-taking-lines-from-draper/


  489. 479 It is an attack line, as with the European Parliament, or fox hunting, that will be very convincing to people who are already viscerally anti-Conservative, and come over as weird and obsessive to people who aren’t.


  490. 476 - So its fine for young children to be exposed the bare realities of straight relaitionships? Your ideas are a betrayal of all those gay youths out there who will only ever see one side of the story.

    Oh and…

    “This situation is far worse now, and it isnt just homosexuality that is promoted in schools, but all kinds of currently fashionable isms, there is not even any pretence at impartiality or that the information they present to children as fact, is heavily disputed and the subject of strong debate throughout the nation.”

    Thats disgraceful! Linking homosexuality to “fashionable isms.” And suggesting that homsexuality is anything but fact. You’re either giving someone elses insight or you’re stuck in some sort of unaware archaic period that I am not aware of.


  491. 479. You might consider it progress.


  492. “462.Blair’s majorities under AV would have been as follows:”

    Personally not convinced soft Tories would vote LD if forced into a binary choice.


  493. 485 - No, it is a personal choice. You don’t need to have a pamphlet to think ‘Oh actually wait a bit, I like guys’


  494. 429 - I live in Wembley.


  495. 487 Yup - and being weird and obsessive isn’t a good look for a mainstream party.


  496. 476 Notme - the last sentence strikes me as a more honest articulation of a prevalent tory view: that young gay people - at the critical time of sexual awakening - must not be exposed to anything which might validate their sexual orientation.


  497. 449 Joshua

    a government that wants to do the best for schools

    A classic case of mistaken priorities. The school system is a medium for educating pupils. Painting a school may improve the building without improving the level or breadth of educational attainment.

    Labour boast they have “invested in schools”. You talk of “the newest technology and state of the art science labs” but not any comparison between educational results achieved before and after such investment.

    There almost certainly can be a causal link between investment in physical resources and educational attainment, but it needs proving in implementation.

    Focussing on educational achievement is the right priority. Educational achievement is the payback for financial investment. Headteachers should be required to quantify the expected payback from any given financial investment and then be rewarded for the success or held accountable for the failure of their proposals.

    Does a brand new school theatre guarantee better performance of drama?


  498. What was she thinking of?

    “Scotland’s deputy first minister has written a letter of support for a man who could be jailed over benefit fraud.

    Nicola Sturgeon asked the court to consider “alternatives to a custodial sentence” in the case of Abdul Rauf.

    The 60-year-old, who is a constituent of Ms Sturgeon, defrauded £80,000 from the Department of Work and Pensions.

    Labour said she had made an “appalling error of judgement” and should resign. The SNP said her representations on behalf of a constituent were routine.

    Glasgow Sheriff Court heard how Rauf admitted failing to declare a property in Newington, Edinburgh, worth £200,000 on his application for income support…”

    Apparently it ’slipped his mind’, as you do.

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/glasgow_and_west/8509157.stm


  499. The Lib Dem collapse continues!!! Last week Cannock this week Glasgow?

    “Explaining his reasons for leaving the SNP after 31 years as a member, and switching to the Lib Dems Cllr Dingwall said:

    I believe that Glasgow needs a change in how our city is run and a party that sets out a clear, credible alternative to the current Labour Administration. Regrettably over the last year it has become clear to me that the Glasgow SNP Council Group lacks both the leadership and the authority to set out an alternative vision for our city.

    After 31 years of membership with the SNP the decision to leave has not been an easy one but the move away from a local to a centrally set income tax and the recent threats to take away control of schools and care for the elderly from local authorities show the SNP simply doesn’t trust its councillors, preferring instead to govern local communities by ministerial decree.

    That’s why I am pleased to be joining the Liberal Democrats. I share their commitment to local government and to the core principle of keeping local decisions local.

    I will continue to work constructively for my constituents and for the people of Glasgow, but now in a way which is entirely in keeping with my personal and political beliefs”


  500. Speaking of political billboards, here’s one for you…

    http://minnesota.publicradio.org/collections/special/columns/news_cut/content_images/bushboard.jpg


  501. Well we can certainly say one thing about Joshua. He managed to single handedly divert everyone away from debating Brown’s Grim Reaper Tax and onto matters far less positive for the Conservatives. So perhaps he doesn’t quite need as many extra lessons as I suggested.

    So who wants to pay £20k and then another £5k for their funeral?

    Oh this death has got legs especially for those who first get stung with it (the contemporary elderly to when it is implemented and their families) because it’s particularly likely that they will get very little bang for their buck..


  502. 494 Speaking personally, I’ve always put sex education in the same category as RE - simply not worth bothering with at school. Either you end up teaching, as fact, viewpoints which large numbers of pupils and parents will completely disagree with, or you just go for something utterly bland.

    Fortunately, at my secondary school, we had neither.


  503. We have the internet. The state can’t prevent the sexually curious looking up what they want. Conversely there’s no need for the state to get into sexual advocacy.

    How babies are made and how you might stop them being made, should you so desire, should be taught.


  504. death = death tax (damned wireless keyboard - doh!)


  505. 500 - Learn behind the bike shed eh? ;)


  506. Twitter - Charlie Whelan

    “Cameron and the Tories clearly want a dirty negative election campaign. #pmqs”

    I would have thought that Charlie would have been made of sterner stuff being Brown’s spin merchant for so long? Wasn’t he on McBride’s mailing list?


  507. 499 - I intend to adopt Jane Eyre’s solution to the problem.


  508. 495 - Seth, a school environment makes a huge different. If I had to choose between the mobiles we used to study inside in infant school (which were practically caravans) or the newly rennovated rooms I would choose the latter every time. If you like science then you’d resent the fact that you didnt have a state of the art working environment where you have access to the correct technology and resources.

    Its known that the majority of students work a lot better in a practical environment where they are not just sitting on their arses reading textbooks. You need interaction. As someone who is part of the student leadership I have close access to the Heads and all the “Important” teachers and such. Its quite clear that they are all very much Labour (and I live in a Tory constituency) and the majority of teachers are these days anyway.

    Oh and can I quickly reiterate again that I’m no Brownite!


  509. I guess my generation was the one that experienced the halfway house regarding technology. Lots of IT lessons but generally only one computer in each class outside business studies or IT.

    I thought I was very well educated in the state sector and I was only under a Labour government for the end of my A-levels and then for my degree.

    Of course, the education-obsessed Labour party then removed all grants and brought in fees for me. I really didn’t experience Labour being pro-education whatever the rhetoric.


  510. Is there a ComRes poll due tonight? I saw some rumoured numbers earlier


  511. 503 Strangely enough, people were able to work out how to do it, long before they had lessons in schools, indeed, long before education became compulsory.


  512. 506 - The majority of teachers are lefties. Always have been and always will be. That doesn’t make them RIGHT!


  513. My sex education was either a biology reproduction class or a sales visit from the Tampax rep.

    Didn’t do me any harm. I really dislike this whole schools teaching morals, values, citizenship and on and on. All this does is remove responsibility from parents to be effing parents :evil:


  514. 488. Children are easily influenced by things they are exposed to, sexuality is no less and no more then other things.

    The saving grace is that our education system is generally so poor that even when trying to, the government seems unable to brainwash the country’s youths.

    Believe it or not, i really dont mind homosexuals, not my personal cup of coffee, but i dont see why they cant be married, they cant adopt, they cant have all the rights and privileges offered to married people in the tax system.

    But, i would be absolutely and utterly devastated if any of my children told me they were gay, but thats private yo me.

    But thats a side issue, there is a small window in the educational system when homosexuality can be genuinely discussed. Sexual health at secondary school, and when a specific incident occurs at the school. That might be a teacher is verbally abused by a pupil for being gay, or pupil is bullied for being gay.

    I can see no reason other then those above, in the education system why it would be necessary for any other teachings of homosexuality.


  515. Plato - here’s one for you to throw something at….

    Today’s global warming forecast? Check Obama’s new climate change website

    http://content.usatoday.com/communities/greenhouse/post/2010/02/how-much-global-warming-today-united-states-launches-climate-service/1


  516. I’m calling it a day for now! Thanks to those who stuck up for me and those who had some very interesting points.

    (Not many thanks to those who think I’m some middle aged socialist disguised as a teenager).


  517. A few off-topic betting observations. I decided that the risks of a debate not happening are greater than the bookies currently suggest, so I’ve closed out my position to be comfortably all green, taking advantage of Ladbrokes’ 3/1 to do so.

    Secondly, it’s very interesting to see how the Ladbrokes’ handicap has moved. Originally, Conservatives (scratch), Labour (+15) and Lib Dems (+22) were all 7/4. The Cons are now 5/2, Labour are 10/11 and the Lib Dems are 2/1. A touch of value in the Lib Dems if Labour were to falter and the Lib Dems were to find their feet in an election campaign?

    Thirdly, shadsy has offered a Cornish market especially for SeanT and tim. The 5/4 that the Lib Dems will win most seats looks very decent.


  518. Lily’s merrie band of personalities 1, PB 0


  519. 500, I rather liked RE and RS (got an A-level in the latter, actually). Sex education was fun. An embarrassed female teacher trying to tell a bunch of internet porn-educated teenagers about where their dingle-dangle should go.


  520. 510.”506 - The majority of teachers are lefties. Always have been and always will be. That doesn’t make them RIGHT!”

    David, absolutely correct. I well remember my History/Mod Studies teacher being a raving Trot/Union Rep from the central belt. He had a complete meltdown when the whole class told them would vote for Thatcher. I think the fact that the 70’s were still so fresh in our minds had something to do with it. Weird to say this now, but Thatcher was deemed quite cool in her heyday, she did cool Britannia so much better than New Labour under Blair. :D


  521. 513 TimB :D


  522. My politics tutor for A-Level was a confirmed Marxist. Me and one other girl were Tories. We both ended up at Cambridge. It must be said that the girl then had a change of heart while at uni and became a hard leftie.

    I didn’t.

    The tutor was brilliant though and never tried to brainwash us. He just did his job.

    He told me that the first class he had after Blair came in was full of Tories!


  523. 514.Joshua, you fought your corner robustly, no one is going to knock you for that. But they can disagree with you, and will tell you so. :wink:


  524. 517. Its very different these days, in the olden days (a decade or two ago). One day, around about year eight (thats second year in old money) all the girls would split off from all the boys and the morning would be devoted to ‘our changing bodies’, and why we should use a condom because we were all going to die of aids otherwise (part of the times). It was barely functional, mildly embarrassing, pretty bad, and all over quite quickly, which coincidentally mirrored a similar pattern in much of my own early sexual experiences.


  525. OT Holy Cow - Tories pledge to publish all details of HMG contracts. This will kill making profits by contract management changes in a single blow - great stuff - WOW.

    “David Cameron is to speak to the influential Technology Entertainment Design (TED) conference, as the Conservatives launch the Transparency section of their Draft Manifesto.

    Cameron will announce radical new plans to publish government contracts in full – including all performance indicators, break clauses and penalty measures.

    As part of the plan for Cutting the Democratic Deficit, Conservatives have already set out plans to publish national and local government spending online, create a new ‘right to government data’, require police forces to publish crime data on a monthly basis and publish the names and salaries of the most senior civil servants.

    Cameron announcement takes these plans even further by taking the radical step of publishing all government contracts worth over £25,000 for goods and services in full. This would enable the public to root out wasteful spending and poorly negotiated contracts, and open up the procurement system to more small businesses.

    Speaking ahead of the speech, Shadow Chancellor George Osborne said that the commitment to publish government contracts is the “most radical transparency announcement ever made by a British political party – and will enable the public to hold ministers and civil servants to account like never before”.

    http://www.conservatives.com/News/News_stories/2010/02/Cameron_announces_new_plans_on_transparency.aspx


  526. 520

    Both my lecturers at Uni were marxists of one degree or other. One was great and always played devils advocate. The other was a propagandist.

    Half my tuition fees wasted.


  527. New York’s governor wants everybody to know that he’s “black, blind, and alive”:

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/politics_nation/2010/02/paterson_im_black_im_blind_and.html

    All this as part of a colorful defense against swirling rumors that Governor Paterson, a married man, regularly hits the town with various girlfriends and has big drug parties at the governor’s mansion. Rumors, I say, because the New York Times is still sitting on the story although the horse has long since left the barn. He’s also now under federal investigation for alleged improprieties involving the awarding of a contract to operate a casino/racetrack. He insists he won’t resign under any circumstances and in fact will supposedly be declaring his bid for re-election next week.


  528. 520.David, my son told me a wee anecdote last week. Kids old enough to vote this time were discussing their options, and some yelled down the corridor, VOTE TORY because Labour are rubbish. And no one spoke up to argue against that assessment. :D


  529. 517 Aren’t you an atheist?

    I have to say that as an atheist - I seem to have a better knowledge of Old Testament than many others who claim to be CoE - weird…guess that’s all those years of compulsory RE…

    Personally, I don’t think RE should be taught at all unless it’s a faith school - it’s like teaching politics.


  530. I see that Red Jester has gone off to think about Richard Nabavi’s comments on the SPIN next Labour leader market: it’s suspended again.


  531. 523 - my housemaster at school gave us the ‘birds and bees’ talk.

    To show us how a man and a woman ‘did it’, he took his pipe apart. It was hilarious.


  532. 507 - “Its quite clear that they are all very much Labour (and I live in a Tory constituency) and the majority of teachers are these days anyway.”

    Is this supposed to be an argument in Labour’s favour? It reads like it.


  533. Scott P - someone might be tweeting an old poll by the looks of it.


  534. New York’s governor wants everybody to know that he’s “black, blind, and alive”:

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/politics_nation/2010/02/paterson_im_black_im_blind_and.html

    All this as part of a colorful defense against swirling rumors that Governor Paterson, a married man, regularly hits the town with various girlfriends and has big drug parties at the governor’s mansion. Rumors, I say, because the New York Times is still sitting on the story although the horse has long since left the barn. He’s also now under federal investigation for alleged improprieties involving the awarding of a contract to operate a cas1no/r@cetrack. He insists he won’t resign under any circumstances and in fact will supposedly be declaring his bid for re-election next week.


  535. 527. Citizenship is now the primary propagandist tool, which is a shame because it can be useful, explaining to people the principles behind the British Constitution, the different structures of society, law and politics in Scotland, Wales, NI and England, what your local council is and how it functions.


  536. 526 ChristinaD

    yes i’ve noticed that, younger generation are a fairly anti-labour bunch. I thought if Lab reduced the voting age it would be a major hole in the foot job.


  537. Joshua: Don’t get too excited about the number of people in higher education, is all I’ll say. You’ll be amazed at how terrifyingly stupid a lot of them are, when you arrive at university. I’m a couple of years older than you and believe me, I was.


  538. 531. Ok, thanks


  539. 529 :lol: That is brilliant!

    Our Biology teacher was a fearsome battleaxe called Miss Hodgeson - she looked like Olive from On The Buses crossed with Edmund Blackbladder vs 1.

    If her first name was Contraception it couldn’t have been more appropriate


  540. 535 - There’s stupidity and lack of intellect. I prefer dealing with those with lack of intellect, because you get more common sense. I once saw a Cambridge First trying to fax a cheque.


  541. 533 And it fits perfectly into the History curriculum - there is no need for it to be seperate IMO.


  542. 527 - Plato, all the Baptist churches here have signs on with pithy sayings.

    The one they would use on you says

    an atheist is someone with no invisible means of support

    - I’m NOT a baptist by the way….


  543. 540 And no imaginery friend either ;)


  544. 527, I think that’s aimed at me, and Evil Mister Smithson has changed the numbers.

    Yes, I’m an atheist. I find religion quite interesting. Buddhism’s quite good, but not quite for me. (I can appreciate the precepts barring killing and promiscuity, but I couldn’t stop lying or swearing).

    I found it easily the most educational and interesting subject I took. Admittedly, this may be because the class was largely good, and the teacher was excellent.


  545. OT Chandeliers for the Trotter household?

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/culture/culturepicturegalleries/7206276/Crystal-chandeliers-by-Hans-Van-Bentem.html


  546. 541 - one thing that maybe you can explain Plato - if Jesus was meant to be Jewish, why did he have a Spanish name?


  547. It’s a very effective poster, it’s no wonder labour are upset.

    Game set and match for the Tories on this one, since “LABOUR DEATH TAX” will linger in the General Public’s memory for some time.

    Moreover, the more Labour whinge about it, so will the headline “LABOUR DEATH TAX”.


  548. Did Andy Burnham just say on ITV News that Postergate was bad because “it forced him into making a decision”?


  549. 546 - Please God, don’t let this be called Postergate.


  550. Labour’s website is really crap - http://www.labour.org.uk/news

    I’m a regular visitor and it makes Labourlist look interesting.

    This is possibly the worst bit I came across - Labour’s Vision

    http://www.youtube.com/labourvision


  551. 547. Pearlygate?


  552. New Thread


  553. NEW THREAD


  554. 463.

    “Blair’s majorities under AV would have been as follows”

    This is a rather silly statement isn’t it? nobody knows how people would deploy their first choice votes under AV as compared with what they would do under FPTP. It is clear that a lot of people vote Labour ‘to keep the Tory out and vice versa, rather than due to any particular enthusiasm for the policies of the party they vote for under FPT in their particular constituencies. Lots of tactical voting in Lib Dem constituencies might change also. So the parties in the AV ‘run-off’ in many constituencies might be a very different pair than the present ‘top two’. You might get independents standing with much more chance of attracting the votes people would like to give them because voters knew they would be transferred if not successful. And, finally, a lot of people who don’t vote at the moment (at all ends of the spectrum), because they think their vote wouldn’t count under FPTP in their constituency, might change their mind.


  555. I have to say having driven round three marginals in Gloucestershire today I haven’t seen it - are the posters up yet?

    On young people. I do citizenship training in schools and they seem to have extreme views. One of the things we do is run election campaigns where they can invent parties and try to win votes. In a recent experience at a grammar school (they still exist here!) three groups were far right, anti immigrant, almost homophobic, hang em brigade and three were the other extreme. They were for mass immigration, spending money on everything except the army etc. We did also have The Birthday Party who were for free sex, drugs and good times all at no cost. It was a boy’s grammar.


  556. Joshua. Pay no attention - the arguments against your “reality” were futile. I would remind everyone here that William Hague talked more sense than Joshua ever will at the age of 16! And he did it in front of the cameras.


  557. in response to Wibbler at 2.14pm (and apologies….been delivering leaflets)

    yes, no one has a way in which the finances stack up and Labour really shouldn’t have tried to steal a march on others. the letter n the Times is indicative of the recognition of the need to get consensus on this, and the Gorgon’s actions will make that more difficult.

    interestingly the Lab/Con administration at Cumbria County Council are making no provision in the 2010/11 budget whilst at the same time recognising that there will be a cost. this will mean that the cuts needed to balance the budget will be hidden from members
    ……..not a good model of democracy…….but there again, it is not the only instance.


  558. In classic Communication Studies research findings Goebbels didn’t change one mind to Naziism; what he did do was continually feed the fires of resentment and then champion the “saviour”. The German people already believed. They just needed reminding every now and then.
    by Stepney February 10th, 2010 at 1:39 pm

    Yes, and no.

    What you fail to understand is that there is a distinction between the type of propaganda expounded on a daily basis by our media, especially the likes of Sky and the BBC, and the more covert form. This form of brainwashing manipulation takes place many years before the more overt. Ideas, policies and the ideologies that represent them, are developed, and financially encouraged, by our ruling oligarchs, within first the university system, who then hand them down to teachers and other shapers of future society, including politicians, corporate leaders, and of course the military establishment.

    The truth is that very little in any form of political sense, if any at all, actually stems from the ordinary people. All is started or quickly subverted by the establishment, for use by the establishment using one method or another. Then when the time is right the more overt form of propaganda can do its work.

    One extremely fine and current example of this form of brainwashing working now in conjunction with the more overt BBC type form, is clearly on show with regards to the virtually non existent MMGW debate.

    Our children have been deliberately and systematically subjected to establishment instigated, and propagated climate change indoctrination within our universities and then later at our senior, junior, primary and now nursery levels for over 40 years. The fruits of which are now on the table.

    “If you fail to plan, you plan to lose.”

    Our establishment does not plan to fail, which is why it does indeed plan a very long time ahead. they just don’t tell the ordinary people that they do, and have been doing so for a very long time.


  559. My old headmaster-an ardent Tory-used to deal with the school building programme in a very inventive way. He would expel one of his wealthiest students who would then return the following term with a brand new chemistry laboritory bearing his family name.

    I sometimes wonder when he Mr Pitt-Roche takes his family to revisit the school whether he pretends his family were philanthropists or if he asmits to being found naked in a Somerset field with (censored)


  560. It was inevitable that the Conservatives were going to seize upon this.

    Bad judgement by Labour.