Do councillors matter more than Michael Ashcroft?
February 20th, 2010
Commons Library Research - 2009 local elections
Is it their resource that’s making the difference in the marginals?
This is to highlight the excellent piece put up on PB2 a few hours ago by Bunnco - in his series of what might be causing the bigger swings in the marginals.
For in his second look at the issue he suggests that the massive decline in Labour councillors in the key seats together with the corresponding increase in Tory ones might be providing Cameron’s party with an extra edge.
For having a councillor does two main things - it means that the wards to you hold are worked at much harder and it also can result in extra cash coming into local party coffers.
For one of the big changes in local government in recent times has been the allowances that are paid to councillors and there’s a strong tradition for parts of this to be ploughed back into the election machine that won the ward in the first place.
And all the experience is that when you lose council seats, as Labour has been doing on a big scale in recent times, then it undermines your on-the-ground campaigning capabilities.
A lot is made of the resource that Michael Ashcroft has pumped in to key seats. My guess is that this has been dwarfed by what councillors are doing.
Bunnco’s analysis is well worth reading,
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
Yes and first ?
Yes.
Labour’s LACK of councillors is probably more important. Though of course one links with the other.
FPT
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article7034739.ece
Times readers give their verdict on Gordon’s speech/slogan
O/T:
As Iain Dale points out, the last six safe Conservative seats have picked the following candidates:
Bromsgrove - Sajid Javid
West Suffolk - Matthew Hancock
Spelthorne - Kwasi Kwarteng
Suffolk Coastal - Therese Coffey
East Surrey - Sam Gyimah
Stratford upon Avon - Nadhim Zahawi
No this is boring.
Can we carry on talking about Peter Hitchens?
FPT. I started typing before ‘New thread’ came up.
453. To add to the UNS debate, I’ve ran the Scottish FPTP elections of 2003 through a UNS calculation (based on the % swing from 2003-2007) and compared with the actual 2007 FPTP results.
So, at the risk of getting Easterross all excited:
UNS prediction: Lab 37 SNP 22 Con 2 LD 12
Actual result: Lab 37 SNP 21 Con 4 LD 11.
So, UNS seems a good predictor of the net outcome.
However, looking at the results in more detail, there were no less than 15 individual seats where the result was different to that predicted by UNS. In addition to the 2 Con ‘gains’ against UNS (Galloway and Roxburgh), Labour won/lost 5 seats, SNP won/lost 6 and LDs won/lost 2 seats against the UNS prediction.
Conclusion: UNS may be a reasonable predictor for net results, but not reliable for individual seats?
3. A futile FAIL for Gord.
I don’t believe this election will be won or lost by hard power (ie the tangible, foot soldiers, money or so forth) but soft power. The idea that it’s Time For A Change is too powerful for a miserable arse like Brown to fight. Everything else will have an impact, but the key is that Brown has been around forever, he’s contemptible, incompetent, unpleasant and the last few grains of sand in the hourglass of his career are passing by.
3,plato,sky comments even worse
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/Politics/Gordon-Brown-Speech-Outlines-Labour-Key-Priorities-Under-Slogan-A-Future-Fair-For-All/Article/201002315553807?lpos=Politics_Carousel_Region_0&lid=ARTICLE_15553807_Gordon_Brown_Speech_Outlines_Labour_Key_Priorities_Under_Slogan_A_Future_Fair_For_All#comment
OT Just to follow up on Kristin’s postings yesterday on the terrible borrowing figures
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article7032892.ece
From the comments
“apparently our gdp was £1,275,000,000,000 in 2007/2008. we left recession with a gdp growth of 0.1%. this is a value of £1,275,000,000.
this figure is a approx a 1/3rd of the borrowing needed for january!!!!
we have not left recession and the recovery is not locked in. lots of figure manipulation going on. i think the public know the real state of the economy.”
Perhaps Tapestry and others can comment on these?
In many places, councillors pay between £25 and £100 per month out of their allowance into party coffers, so if you have say 20 councillors you can easily pay the salary of a full time assistant. In addition if you have above a certain threshold of seats on a council the party has the salary of a political research officer paid by the council.
So, yes, having an ever declining number of councillors will be hitting Labour badly
More right-wing spin from Smithson.
5,or hefferlump
Has this been covered (from 3):
“A new poll shows the Conservatives have re-established their double digit lead over Labour.
The ComRes poll showed the Conservative lead had increased by two percentage points, to 40 per cent, while backing for Labour fell two, to 29 per cent with The Liberal Democrats up two, on 21 per cent.”
FPT. 477 Jupiter. An original post that I will ponder. In many ways I don’t disagree with you about Cameron. But, unlike you, I happen to believe he has a lot more to offer than simply being a polished performer. If he gets the chance to come to office I seriously think he will prove to be one of Britain’s best PMs. But the going will be very very tough. As for contradictions in the Conservative party, there are clearly many many unresolved issues. But that is the case with all political parties. As for comparing Thatcher with Blair, I cannot agree.
re 14. That sounds like the IoS poll last weekend. Same numbers.
if you add in the 2008 results for the new unitaries the picture is even more compelling………and…..if you drill down into these pictures of Blue there is not much Red around…….
looking at my bit of the country……top left grey bit….. Cumbria, the place withe the Blue/Red partnership, you can get a picture in looking at the county council results to show why Carlisle and Barrow will go Blue, and W&L won’t!
16, ah, thanks, I don’t recall that.
Mr Dancer - if you get the chance, listen to the end of AQ - Dianne Abbott is very funny about what she’d do with £30m.
18, hehe, listened to the end after you mentioned Tebbit’s mirthful Purnell comments.
re 12. Why is this right-wing spin? I can bore you for hours on this having seen how winning council seats, and in Bedford our elected mayor, can completely energise the Lib Dems.
More councillors = more activists = more money.
Alas the opposite is the case when you lose them.
Locally we are going into the general election better prepared and with more resource than I can remember before.
16 Is there a piece worth doing on how Lib Dem local success translates into seats and in particular for this election does Lib Dem success in traditional Labour strongholds like Newcastle, Sheffield, Swansea and Liverpool spell bigger danger for Labour than Tory wins in traditional battlegrounds?
16
Well, that’s hardly new, is it ? It just shows that the rest of the world is on a different wavelength to us on pbc. They have quoted a week old poll as new and ignored 2 more recent polls .
re 21. This is something that I’ve been planning to look at.
Certainly before betting on LD incumbents I always check the political composition of their local councils.
http://www.gwydir.demon.co.uk/uklocalgov/makeup.htm
What is The Times doing?
A new article mentioning a ComRes poll, but the same figures as the last one?!?!?!?!
re 16. Confirmation from ComRes
CEO Andrew Hawkins has just emailed me to say that this is last week’s poll.
At the bottom of this times article on browns speach today it talks of a com res poll. Is this a new or old one.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article7034739.ece
The reporter who wrote this Times article needs to be given a good telling off.
25, cheers
Excellent to have quick responses from you and Mr. Hawkins.
26, see 25.
An online article on a Saturday afternoon was probably written by the tea boy, a toff’s child on work experience.
Just had the first pb crash for a while now
re 28. That’s twice today that I’ve had to get onto the boss of a polling firm - and they both responded superfast.
charliewhelan
Great day for Labour in Warwick. Could get better with Sunday papers poll. 3 minutes ago from UberTwitter
Is he ramping in advance ? Mori ?
by Kristin February 20th, 2010 at 3:43 pm
32, could be the Waugh thing.
If we had ComRes last week it shouldn’t be them, we have YouGov recently. Could be Mori. What about ICM?
It’s probably already been posted, but to paraphrase Gordo - well worth a second look:
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/.a/6a00d83451b31c69e20120a8b9f0c1970b-pi
Fairgrounds are now nailed on to the FFFA slogan.
23 Certainly the Lib Dem total domination of seats like Eastleigh and Cardiff Central on councillors will strengthen their hold but it would be very interesting to see if the recent Lib Dem breakthroughs in cities like Newcastle and Newport where Labour hasn’t been seriously challenged since the war poses a far more basic threat to Labour than being battered by the Tories in seats and areas in the south that traditionally swing with the tide. The former will affect any platform for recovery if they are beaten potentially making the inheritance for Kinnock in 83 look easy in comparison with that facing Labour if they are beaten at the election this year.
http://playpolitical.typepad.com/uk_conservative/2010/02/labour-has-hurt-the-many-says-cameron.html
Dave-swoon…
Popping back on, I saw the debate over UNS.
I did post a while back on the UNS for the past four elections:
- UNS in 1992 would have given Major a majority of about 60, IIRC
- UNS from the actual 1992 result to 1997 would have left Blair with a significantly lower majority (barely 130) and left the Tories over 200 seats
- UNS from the actual 1997 result to 2001 would have seen the Labour majority dented down to below 150 (from over 170) and Hague would have taken the Tories past 180 seats (and therefore possibly continued as Conservative leader).
- In 2005, Labour should have retained a landslide majority of 100 seats on UNS from 2001, and Howard’s improvement of the Tory seat score would have been only half as good as it was.
In essence, UNS is a guide which will be inaccurate. I’m trying to forecast how inaccurate and in what direction. All else being equal (if the errors in the past had fallen evenly), it would be unrealistic - an attempt to predict a random result. But there has been a systematic error to UNS, which has followed a recognizable pattern. This pattern seems eminently explicable, and if the explanation and pattern fits the bill, then those assumptions to remove the accumulated distortion from UNS would be valid.
Effectively, I’m predicting about a 30-40 seat bonus beyond UNS. I note that Martin Baxter has an excellent analysis article on his site here from 2006, examining the distortion. From a different analysis, he concludes that ” If public sentiment switches from wanting to “keep the Tories out” to either neutrality or even a desire to punish Labour, then perhaps a third of the 90 seat gap could disappear.” - ie that the Tories could beat UNS by about 30 seats if the anti-Tory meme was overcome.
However, Rod is correct that any model is limited by its assumptions. If your assumptions differ, then the effect will differ.
36. Swoon double plus. Dave should do some voice training tho’ to guard against losing his voice as the campaign goes on.
http://iaindale.blogspot.com/
Mr Dale has reprised some very funny allegations about Mr Brown
There are several I’ve never seen before and LOL
The ultimate low blow: on labour’s freshly made over website, to reflect the wondrous new campaign of G Brown, in the section relating to ‘new industries, future jobs’, the following:
Are the Tories a change you can afford?
The Tories would put under threat the thousands of new green jobs we are helping to create. It is clear that the Tories have not changed their priorities - they are a party of climate change sceptics, as shown by the opposition of senior Tory MPs to new wind power.
So there you have it - if you are a climate change sceptic you are threatening thousands of jobs.
This campaign shows all the signs of being thought out day and night for almost an hour before launch.
http://www.labour.org.uk/new-industries-future-jobs
Norfolk Blogger tweets:
“Just canvassed Labour regional exec member.They’ve a meeting in Ipswich 2moro PM 2 discuss general election.Expect it to be called on Monday”
Subsequent tweet in response to the “When?” question:
“25th March”
“For having a councillor does two main things - it means that the wards to you hold are worked at much harder and it also can result in extra cash coming into local party coffers. ”
Ahhh, if only that were true. I have, over the past four years, found our councillors in key battleground areas to be some of the laziest, contemptible fools I have ever come across. They are very happy to sit back and nurse their majorities, but if it actually ever comes to helping a Parliamentary candidate, they are all suddenly very busy helping the wife with the shopping or something of the sort.
Open letter to Gordon Brown.
Dear Prime Minister,
I listened to your speech today. I found it to be mostly lies, misrepresentation’s of your opponents and numerous moments of dellusion.
However I was struck by one phrase you uttered : “But I know where I come from….”
I hope this at least true; so may I wish you God’s speed on your journey back to Scotland after the election.
Davidp
41. Is this reliable, or is it yet more tittle tattle?
39. Plato. Iain left out this shocker - Ruth Lea’s account of her treatment by Gordon:
Several years ago and when I was still Head of the Policy Unit at the IoD, I think it was in 2001, I was a member of the IoD’s team which went to see the Chancellor at the Treasury to discuss our Budget Representations. All went swimmingly until the Chancellor asked our Director-General what IoD members thought about his policies. The DG made a feeble response and handed the question over to me. I replied along the lines of “…some of your policies have been very well received – but others less so. The increased employment regulations, for example, can prove very difficult for small businesses.” “Which ones?” the Chancellor demanded. “Several. But the Working Families Tax Credit, and I understand your reasons for introducing it, can prove especially difficult.”
He blew up. No fuse. Just blew up. Didn’t I realise why he had introduced it (I’d just said that I did)? …didn’t I this? …didn’t I that? …didn’t I the other? And so this curious tirade went on for what seemed like an eternity. I have never encountered anything like it in my life and hope I never will again. The man was out of control. Then he suddenly took a grip on himself and we went back to discussing the Budget.
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/centreright/2009/06/gordon-brown-never-was-fit-for-number10.html
OT - email from springboard re a poll ..
Britons Optimistic That Recession Will Come to an End Soon
Vast majority of people say the national economy is in shambles, but most think the slowdown will not go past 2010.
The vast majority of members in Great Britain think the country’s economic situation is terrible but most expect to see signs of recovery soon. 83 percent of you say the UK economy is in a poor state. Well over half of the members surveyed (62%) also describe their own finances as being in a sorry state.
https://www.springboarduk.com/MediaServer/3/documents/2010%2001%2028_Eco_BRI.pdf
some interesting info
Political Leadership
In descending order, Britons express moderate or complete trust in the following political leaders to do
what is right to help the economy: Mervyn King, Governor of the Bank of England (41%), David Cameron,
leader of the Opposition (40%), Nick Clegg, leader of the Liberal Democrats (35%), Vince Cable, Liberal
Democrat Shadow Chancellor (also at 35%), Gordon Brown, Prime Minister (30%), George Osbourne,
Conservative Shadow Chancellor (29%), and Alistair Darling, Chancellor of the Exchequer (23%).
The highest level of distrust in this file goes to Darling (62%) and Brown (61%).
Britons trust the Conservative Party more than Labour to rein in the national debt (47% to 22%), and
control inflation (41% to 28%). The contest is tighter but still favourable to the Tories for who is better to
end the recession (35% to 29%), and create jobs (35% to 32%).
The dates are old though, From January26 to January 27, 2010 2004 respondents.
But has anything changed since then ?
The main point of the original thread is spot on. If councillors do actually make decent donations to strengthen local campaigning, this is indeed a great advantage for the local party.
Apart from anything else, it is a regular source of income. And a local party can really start to plan its expenditure properly.
From what I have observed, Liberal Democrats are only just getting to grips with this. But this is why I agree with OGH that we ought to look at the size of local council groups, and the amount of funding they provide for local campaigning.
Not going to give any secrets away - sorry about that - but you do have to chuckle when you read some of the Tory boasting on here about some of the seats that they think they are destined to win.
A good clue lies in the results of local government byelections, of course. They reflect the strength of local organsation.
We’ll get the YouGov/News Int daily in the Sunday Times.
Just in my Inbox from Gordon
“Today at Labour’s Spring Event I set out our shared vision for this great country.
This campaign is not going to be won somewhere else by someone else. It’s going to be won by people like you taking our message to your family, friends and work colleagues.
Click here now to play your part in our fight for fairness
And when you are talking to people on the doorstep, or on the school gate or in your workplace – I would like you to pass on a message from me.
Tell them that I know that Labour hasn’t done everything right – but that they should take a second look at us and a long hard look at the Tories. Take a second look at our cancer guarantee and then take a long hard look at the Tories’ plans to scrap your right to see a cancer specialist within two weeks of diagnosis. Take a second look at our plans to protect front line education spend and then take a long hard look at their plans to cut your child tax credits, cut your childrens centres and cut the budget of every school in the country.
If we are to build a future fair for all we must:
- Secure the recovery, not put it at risk
- Protect frontline services, not cut them
- Stand up for the many, not the few
- Invest in new industries and future jobs
Will you help spread this message street by street, school gate by school gate, workplace by workplace?
I know that we are the underdog in this election. But I also know how hard our supporters are working to make sure our message gets through. Across the country we are working harder on this campaign than we’ve ever worked before.
So will you join us?
Help us show the Tories (who are counting people’s votes before they’ve even been cast) that we will fight for every single vote, in every single seat on every day between now and the close of polls.
Labour’s fight begins today – and it’s one that together we can, and must, win.
Thank you
Gordon
PS – If you can’t join us in person you can still make a huge difference to our fight by donating just £10 today – every single penny you give will be spent on our campaigning “
The way Brown is alleged to have behaved would get you the sack in most businesses. Who the hell would want to work with or employee someone like Brown? Even a fair number of the Cabinet clearly don’t like him or think he’s up to the job. It is incredible that Labour let him take over from Blair.
46. Has anything changed since then? The economists’ letters?
49 cont - the Obama campaign person on Sky earlier said that $50 was the desired amount for their campaign IIRC.
47. ‘Not going to give any secrets away - sorry about that - but you do have to chuckle when you read some of the Tory boasting on here about some of the seats that they think they are destined to win.’
Which seats, for example?
Yes, spot on Mike - this is a really crucial issue. This was part of why the Tories took so long to recover after 1997, because they were destroyed locally on the ground. For years, absolutely nothing at all happened in some seats the Tories lost - they had no councillors to agitate or cause local trouble/issues.
In some cases I expect the Ashcroft money has been fed into a local councillor machine and they have used it very wisely, over and above what they were already doing.
http://mylabourposter.typepad.com/blog/2010/02/james-purnell.html
Rather good and simple.
48 - I thought it would only be appearing Tuesday to Friday?
Web Cameron on Labour’s launch…not for the few, not for the many, for everyone
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Btb_M8M1qvk
55. “Rather good and simple.”
That one is very good.
50. I was particularly shocked by Ruth Lea’s account (who was then treated badly by her colleagues, because at the time they were all kowtowing to Gordon). She’s a dry as dust economist, not given to any kind of exaggeration, and no-one could seriously doubt her word. No-one in today’s workforce should get away with that kind of behaviour.
I hope the MSM show some extracts from Cameron’s excellent WebCam.
I agree it was an interesting article. I must check PB Channel 2 more often.
However I doubt the Conservatives will gain seats at the May locals. 2006 was an all-time Labour low.
58. Except for those of us who think that James Purnell’s retirement has just boosted the average quality of the PLP.
It is no coincidence that in Edinburgh South West, the candidate I expect to unseat Alistair Darling is a local councillor.
Meanwhile…
The BBC’s Iain Watson with his analysis of Brown’s speech:
The event resembled daytime Jerry Springer-style chat show; with an invited audience of “real people” and a few audience “plants” - in this case cabinet members who stood up from the floor, not the stage, and said their piece.
And he is spot on with this:
And by inviting people to take a second look at Labour he was in effect admitting that the party and perhaps even his leadership of it had alienated some natural Labour supporters and had failed to win back many who had defected to the Lib Dems at the last election.
In other words, the reason why Brown shouldn’t be leading the Labour party at the election.
http://howarddenton.blogspot.com/2010/02/bbcs-reaction-to-browns-speech.html
60 Depends on the national election. On the day they would tread water. If Labour did go early nationally and assuming they were beaten then you’d probably see a similar effect on the Labour vote as in 92. They would stay home en masse in the Locals following.
Local troops are vital in any kind of campaign, so Labour will have a disadvantage. Whilst local by-election results cannot point to the direction of a result (see Anthony Well’s article on his site about this), they can show the strength of a local organisation, which is important.
I am really beginning to think he may call the election this week. Labour have done a really coordinated launch this weekend and I suspect if they don’t go ahead with the campaign, they will loose any kind of momentum they may be trying to gain. It also has a certain logic based on the post-97 period. If Labour are defeated in the GE, they will hope by the locals that the anti-Labour feeling will begin to recede and it might leave some of their local organisations in one piece to start the rebuild.
I know we normally get about 300-500 comments for each thread but I wonder what the average number of posters is (roughly speaking)?
59. I agree with you about Ruth Lea, she doesn’t strike me as the sort of person who would fabricate or exaggerate an account of someone else’s behaviour.
Our Glorious Leader interview with C4
http://www.channel4.com/news/articles/politics/domestic_politics/gordon+brown+denies+angry+outburst+claims/3553242
Comment from the Times article that I could see being used by a Shadow minister this weekend
Arthur Coq wrote:
Give them a second look? We’ve already given them three looks and each time we get more and more into debt.
Has anyone any information about this supposed leak via Norfolk bloggers Twitter account? For Ref see post 41.
Usable slogan from Cameron’s webcam
Cameron: The many are the victims of Labour’s recession
59/66. I’ve no reason to assume Ruth Lea is anything other than honest, but the one thing she absolutely isn’t is “dry as dust”. She’s one of the most animated, over-excitable economists you could think of.
65 Time of day has quite an impact - late night Scottish representation is very high.
Mu hunch about 25-30 on a normal one - maybe 40-45 on a controversial or very newsworthy one/smaller party as it encourages lurkers to post?
Final times at Jerez:
Button - McLaren - 1:18.871
Kubica - Renault - 1:19.114
Kobayashi - Sauber - 1:19.188
Liuzzi - Force India - 1:19.650
Roserg - Mercedes - 1:20.061
Alonso - Ferrari - 1:20.436
Alguersuari - Toro Rosso - 1:21.053
Webber - Red Bull - 1:21.194
Hulkenburg - Williams - 1:21.919
Glock - Virgin - 1:22.433
Trulli - Lotus - 1:23.470
These look fast. I’ll collect all the official data and have a look. I suspect there may be something useful here. The Red Bull, Mercedes and Ferrari are, I would guess, heavier (light-middling) than the McLaren. I’d also guess the Sauber and Renault are super light as well, but it’s impossible to say for certain.
Next test is Barcelona, 25-28 February.
This in from the human slug Whelan
‘Don’t forget when the Rawnsley tome comes out in Obs’ he has form in making things up http://bit.ly/9ZzDKO‘
As a connoisseur of b*llsh*t what I enjoy most about Whelan/Muckquire/Campbell et al is their combination of brazen, almost hysterical, chuztpah and acute lack of self awareness.
61 As someone who worked with Mr Purnell, I think you are wrong. He’s a very bright man who tried to do a Frank Field and lost the battle.
Personally I’d put him in the same bracket as Tom Harris but more politically astute.
59 - Polly I wasn’t aware that Ruth lea has commented on Brown’s behaviour, have you a link ?
75. Speaking of Tom, handbags between him and Iain Dale…
http://tinyurl.com/y8jh7xy
75. “Personally I’d put him in the same bracket as Tom Harris”
Gosh, even I wouldn’t be that harsh on Purnell. But for the record “bright” was never my problem with the man.
I presume Purnell’s departure makes a Cruddas run for the leadership more likely, ie. no chance of a Purnell/Cruddas ticket with Purnell as the senior partner. In my view, a very good outcome.
67 Brown interview with Ch 4 full of non-denial:
“He did admit that when he gets angry “I throw the newspapers on the floor or something like that,” but told Channel 4 News: “Let me just say absolutely clearly, so that there is no misunderstanding about that, I have never, never hit anybody in my life.”"
So no exclusion of shoving, pulling off chairs, throwing things at people or calling them chumps.
OT, might have an impact in Scottish seats…
Calls for the medical evidence behind the release of the Lockerbie bomber to be published in full have been stepped up.
Six months have passed since the Scottish government allowed Abdelbaset Ali Mohmed Al Megrahi to go home to Libya on compassionate grounds - after medical evidence indicated he only had three months to live.
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/UK-News/Calls-For-Medical-Evidence-Behind-The-Lockerbie-Bombers-Release-To-Be-Published-Are-Stepped-Up/Article/201002315553984?lpos=UK_News_First_Home_Article_Teaser_Region_0&lid=ARTICLE_15553984_Calls_For_Medical_Evidence
79. “I have never, never hit anybody in my life”
Not even when playing rugby?
71. James Kelly. How do you Ruth Lea is so excitable?
As for James Purnell, I can’t understand why you don’t value your brightest talents. Diane Abbott was just the same, slagging him off for being right wing on QT.
76. Kristin. (posted at 45)
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/centreright/2009/06/gordon-brown-never-was-fit-for-number10.html
Brown is actually on quite good form in the C4 interview.
Hopefully the voters can remember how terrible he really is. However, the lack of scrutiny on his record and recent economic news means that Labour’s beguiling economic siren song might start to resonate. I really hope not, otherwise Britain is doomed.
76 - Kristin, Polly’s account is from an article by Ruth Lea on Con-Home.
“Gordon Brown never was fit for Number 10 and, given the wreckage of the economy, the public finances and the financial regulatory system, was never fit for Number 11 either.”
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/centreright/2009/06/gordon-brown-never-was-fit-for-number10.html
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/centreright/2009/06/gordon-brown-never-was-fit-for-number10.html
82. Should read - How do you know Ruth Lea is so excitable?
Sky News:
bigging up Browns speech every 15 mins or so… And not a single member of the opposition allowed on to rubbish it!
If this was tory’s or liberal speech, it would be rubbished by Labour all over the telly!
Sky are MORE Labour bias than the BBC!
82. “How do you Ruth Lea is so excitable?”
A relatively simple process of observation. Believe it or not, she was once ITN’s business editor for a few months and she was over-excitable even by their very high standards.
“As for James Purnell, I can’t understand why you don’t value your brightest talents. Diane Abbott was just the same, slagging him off for being right wing on QT.”
Intriguing use of the word ‘your’ there!
78
James Kelly
As someone who wants to see the complete destruction of Labour I would agree with you. Anything that results in the more sensible and electable Labour MPs leaving politics must be a good thing. That way the party will be left with the Brownian rump and condemned to oblivion
And excellent outcome.
80. Scott , Its old news, very few in Scotland care whether he is alive or dead. It will just show up the lack of policies from the opposition in Scotland even more. They have nothing to say , other than taking cheap shots at the SNP over any and every item. Most people are sick of them, especially Labour. Of more interest , but hardly seen is the epidemic of ill health forcing the labour councillors running SPT to resign. Hardly seen the light of day and if mentioned they never state that they are all Labour councillors, and as ever its money.
If there is a poll in a Sunday paper, do we know when we’ll get confirmation/the numbers through?
I hope we don’t have any leading statements this time.
90 David Roe mentioned one was due in the Sunday Times
“I have never, never hit anybody in my life”
Double negative = positive?
88. “more sensible and electable Labour MPs”
“the party will be left with the Brownian rump”
Translations for the uninitiated -
“sensible/electable” = “Tory”
“Brownian” = “centre-right”
norfolkblogger’s tweet upthread…
Just spoken with my own Labour Regional Exec source. He tells me that he’s not going to a meeting in Ipswich. He’s going somewhere else. And he’s not expecting the announcement as Candidates haven’t been put on 24/48 hours notice.
Bunnco - Your real Man on the Spot in Norfolk.
87. James Kelly. Hmmm - pretty dubious way of judging. Sure you aren’t just being sexist?
OK not ‘your’ brightest talents, but Labour’s brightest talents. I see you have nothing to say on the subject.
From a comment left on Mr Dale
I Squiggle said…
O/T
Gordon Brown’s ‘election launch’ followed by..
Here in Streatham, SW London, I’ve just had the first door knocking by the Labour party for several years. Big team in the street as well. (The PPC is Chuka Umunna, replacing, he hopes, Keith Hill). Is this a coincidence? It’s a bit early for May isn’t it?
94. Where is that? It doesn’t appear to be there now.
82 - thanks Polly, that is scathing. Sorry I hadn’t noticed it was posted earlier, I’m multi-tasking and not very well at the moment
F1:
USF1 struggling, wants to start 4 races late.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/motorsport/formula_one/8526137.stm
95. “Hmmm - pretty dubious way of judging. Sure you aren’t just being sexist?”
Yes, Polly, I’m pretty sure I’m not being sexist. Are you sure that’s not just a rather silly suggestion on your part?
“I see you have nothing to say on the subject.”
I’ve already said quite a bit on the subject. I think he’s highly intelligent, but arrogant beyond belief, and completely out of touch. Pretty much as you’d expect for a man who’s been in the New Labour bubble since he was a foetus.
93
Showing your ignorance yet again James. Not everyone who wants to see the destruction of the Labour party is a Tory. And I would certainly not equate sensible or electable with many Tory MPs.
Ignore 97, misread Bunnco’s comment at 94
101. “And I would certainly not equate sensible or electable with many Tory MPs.”
Why? Too left wing?
On the ground here in Southampton Test (currently same odds for both Tories & Labour, so should be a good fight) I’ve had a door knock from the Tory today and a full colour leaflet a couple of hours later, followed by a rather dull looking Labour leafeelt from the MP an hour after that. Anyone would think there was an election in the air…
94. don’t they have to reconvene Parliament first to clear the desks of unfinished business? So perhaps later next week, say Wednesday, for a March 1st dissolution perhaps?
Just a note to say how pleasurable it is on here when cheap point scoring/deliberate derailing and insults/smears are few and far between.
On a betting front - I’ve lost out on Purnell being next leader
so hope to recoup with an early election - ideally 25th March 
re: will Brown call an election this week?
The betfair ‘month of next election’ market is like playing with fire! Someone just snapped up my lay on a March election (at 8.0) within seconds! If there really was going to be an election called soon, i’d expect the specific betfair price to suddenly collapse, not just edge down slightly. This ‘election launch’ is just noise. Take advantage!
Would the SNP have released the bomber if Lockerbie wasn’t in the Dumfries and Galloway region? If it were in Banffshire, say?
107 - I think it has something to do with the small amount of money required to substantially move the odds.
105 About 3 days to clear the decks IIRC - then a minimum of 17 working days for a campaign
(pathetic) Betting Post
I’ve just spent an entire tenner betting on the GE over at Betfair.
Yeah, a whole £10. Huge by my standards!
£2 on Conservative majority at 1.48
£2 on Conservative seat band 275-299 at 12.82
£2 on Labour seat band 275-299 at 11.00
£2 on Labour 300 seats or over at 15.00
£2 on Greens to win a seat at 2.08
Have a lost it all? I mean I could’ve just bought another Doctor Who DVD instead.
106. “Just a note to say how pleasurable it is on here when cheap point scoring/deliberate derailing and insults/smears are few and far between.”
True, Plato. Well done for laying off the AGW conspiracy stuff.
108. “Would the SNP have released the bomber if Lockerbie wasn’t in the Dumfries and Galloway region? If it were in Banffshire, say?”
Yes.
100. Yes James - I’m certain I’m not being ’silly’. But your use of such terminology is very patronising. Using ‘over excitable’ as a put down is very frequently a way of attacking women in particular.
And moreover I’ve never seen Ruth Lea as anything other than sober and not given to any kind of exaggeration, which makes your claims even more questionable.
Some reflections on my PB2 post
1 I’m not sure that the money from Councillors’ Allowances is as important as the effort that they put-in. I think it’s only the LibDems that force their Councillors to pay-over a tithe to the local party, which is why perhaps OGH has given that particular element so much prominence in his thread-header.
2 Simply having Councillors and controlling the Councils helps the local Parliamenatary Candidate not least because it aids the air-war. The local press/radio often quote “local Conservative Councillor Fred Bloggs…” and the Council’s own press officers are publishing helpful material daily. This is a under-recognised point.
3 One thing that I didn’t develop in the article sufficiently was that the LibDem’s high-water mark seemed to be reached in 2005. They suffered substantial local losses in 2007 and after. The pretty maps show that quite clearly, particularly in the South and South West.
4 In terms of Councillor numbers, it might be argued that the Tories themselves are now at a high watermark, having hit a glass ceiling. In many areas there just aren’t any more seats to win. In this regard, future elections might show a drop in the number of Tory Councillors.
But if they are at a high water-mark, then at least it’s coincided with the election where they need the greatest number of foot-soldiers.
Lucky David.
111 But in Zimbabwean dollars that’d be as of today
2 British Pound = 1,160.47 Zimbabwe Dollar
You are indeed a high roller!
96 No it isn’t if your seat is under threat. You don’t sit around playing cards until the official start of the campaign as it could easily be already over by then. The official campaign is just a legal process. The real campaign is now already on.
96. “Here in Streatham, SW London, I’ve just had the first door knocking by the Labour party for several years. Big team in the street as well. (The PPC is Chuka Umunna, replacing, he hopes, Keith Hill). Is this a coincidence?”
No. Labour have a nationwide doorstep campaign out today
http://twitter.com/#search?q=%23labourdoorstep
112 What has my personal view on the veracity of AGW got to do with any of my points?
Nothing.
114 Labour has never been lower on councils and councillors in Wales than now. Should this make it prone to a very high swing in your view.
Hearing the report of Gordon’s speech on R4s PM, I ruefully report it came across as forceful and convincing. Plus of course the beeb gave it a very favourable edit. If he doesn’t get a bounce out of this I’ll be amazed. March 25 is looking increasingly likely.
Has Chris Bryant’s Twitter account been hacked?
http://dailyreferendum.blogspot.com/2010/02/chris-bryant-mp-tweets-lie-about-tory.html
113. “Yes James - I’m certain I’m not being ’silly’.”
In that case we’ll have to agree to differ.
“But your use of such terminology is very patronising. Using ‘over excitable’ as a put down is very frequently a way of attacking women in particular.”
Polly, what you’re essentially telling me is that I can’t reach conclusions on a prominent female public figure based on observation, in exactly the same way as I would do to a man. That is an utterly ludicrous proposition. I can honestly tell you that I’ve called many males “over-excitable” in my time.
So I’m afraid Polly, you are way off-beam. It’s just political correctness gone MAD.
118. “What has my personal view on the veracity of AGW got to do with any of my points?
Nothing.”
It’s got everything to do with deliberate derailing.
120 A one day event - I’m looking forward to the kitchen sink being thrown at them myself.
If Labour look like winning the markets will have a collective heart-attack.
120 - Agree with your assesment of the speech Polly but not sure about any Brown bounce. Its down to david cameron to weigh in and demolish the delusions which littered that speech -and for him to be given fair air time to get his views across.Very concerned for example that Sky have today simply given Brown acres of unanswered coverage of his speech when Cameron has aleady dealt with it on his blog.
123. Nasty little outbreak of PWF* this afternoon, James.
You are quite right to stamp on it.
*Posting while female.
123 No it’s an entirely different subject of interest to many on this forum, it isn’t designed to distract from the current political discussion because it is an embarrassing or awkward story for my party.
Using your logic, every Scottish newspaper article posted by Mr Dickson is a thread derailer - personally I’d describe them as off-topic.
114.Point re Lib Dems coucil control.This factor is particularly potent for new council gains.This give Lib dems a much needed boost in profile in a constuituency and proved a very good launch pad for getting Lib Dems elected in 1997 eg Colchester,Harrogate ,Winchester.
So what are new coucils controlled by Lib Dems since 2005-Bristol,Hull,Portsmouth,Newcastle,Oldham,Sheffield,Burnley,St Albans.
Ruth Lea is well known for her opposition to any measures which protects the worker from the unfair practices of employers. She believes in the right of businesses to make money on the backs of their workers without any account of humane principles. Her comments about Corus on QT reflect this fact. She would try the patience of Job in any rational discussion because of her right wing, inflexible stance. If Gordon Brown lost his temper with her then it was probably due to her support for the abolition of workers’ rights.
119 Wales
I can’t comment on Wales specifically. This is something for antifrank’s recent PB2 post.
My point is that, Andy Cooke has postulated that the marginals are behaving differently. I’m trying to explain why the marginals are showing a disproportionate swing.
And my view in today’s article is that Tory Councillor-incumbency is dynamising the national swing in the METHHs and is in addition to the ‘Council House Tenant’ point from my previous article and also in relation to my next two articles.
These effects are additive over-and-above the UNS, which is why Andy Cooke’s analysis is spot-on in my view. He’s worked out that the marginals are behaving differently and I think I’m helping with the explanation as to why.
120 Check out Nick Palmer MP’s cryptic comment re a possible March election on the previous thread @ 113. He seems to know you know.
Reading the groupthinkers on the previous thread I expected Browns speech to be poor.
What I’ve heard so far sounds fine.
125 I suspect the Tories have chosen to distance themselves from it - no other reason makes sense. I can’t imagine that the media didn’t try to get them to bite.
In essence all the Tories have done is to largely ignore Labour’s launch - schadenfreude springs to mind
In addition to the points already made councillors do lots of case work and often have access to all sorts of slush funds/devolved area budgets for local schemes as well as “street letters”. It varies from council to council but in sme I know the capacity to make you and the party look good via tax payer funded mail is astonishing.
I’m amazed a national news paper hasn’t yet added up the annual cost of every political assistant to council groups in Britain. Many/most? of these are “politically restricted” and you have to be either a party member or some times in sympathy with the party values.
The combined annual salary of politically restricted posts - tax payer funded posts legfally restricted to members of political parties would be interesting.
OGH/Bunnco are right. When you lose your councillors it rips the heart out of your organisation.
Any idea which Tories are due to be asked about Ashcroft, I mean the launch, on Marr tomorrow?
124 Plato
No they wont Plato, because the reversal in the polls, should it happen, will be quite gradual.
128 Roger: LibDem Council Control
You’re right in that the new LibDem councils will give a boost to any LibDem PPC in the general election. But the stats show that the LibDems are holding only 18 Shire Districts compared with 151 for the Tories.
It’s a start but the Liberals have a long way to go to regain the councils lost since 2005… and 1997 for that matter.
135 Great bit of input - thanks as ever.
129
A ringing defence of the proletariat from the barricades ! You didn’t go to a minor public school, did you, Lilly ?
133
tim, the comments summed it up perfectly.
137 ??
Re Obama strategy.What worked for Obama wont work for Gordon.
Obama was a new kid on the block
Brown is an old man and a chip of the old block.
Obama stood for hope.
Brown stands for despair
126 - Peter.
The Tories on the media this week have been very poor, Winterton of course, but Hague and Lansley in particular.
Perhaps they made the decision not to put anyone on TV?
I notice that the stronger parts of Browns speech were helped by Graylings made up crime figures and the laughable pregnant teenagers stuff.
Perhaps the Tories are working on a slogan linking their two strong policy areas.
“Hearse and Hounds”
135 - Yellow Sub.
Are you interested in contributing regularly as a Lib Dem on a new blog?
133 tim
Reading the groupthinkers on the previous thread I expected Browns speech to be poor.
What I’ve heard so far sounds fine.
I haven’t heard any of it but know it to be bad.
It only goes to show that the conclusions of groupthinkers can differ. Depends on the group I guess.
133 You support Labour, it’s not really a shock that it sounds fine to you. Nor indeed to any other core voters or Toryphobics.
Unlikely many people are going to review 13 years of Labour and say ‘wow, on my second look these oafs are the real deal.’
Change is coming. Brown is not change, he is the old guard and his time is up.
144 – tim, a valiant effort – but the speech was still crap.
And you know it.
144
Oh dear, following tim’s posts on pbc, on tenterhooks. Its like watching a soap opera where a known alcoholic character looks meaningfully at the sideboard bottles just as the episode ends.
Have the descendants of the Hapsburgs decided to sue Brown yet for his slurs yesterday?
They should. Brown is a commoner, he has no place throwing insults around about his betters.
Martin Coxall / tim
If you’re looking for a name for your blog
FutureFairForAll was available at Blogspot earlier today
145 What’s the URL LatvianHomophobeSection28BabyEatingBetWelchers.blogspot.com?
124 - James Kelly.
Coxall and I are also looking for some SNP input, would you be interested?
145 - are you having a big launch for your new blog tim ? Will there be a catchy slogan
152 - Why not stick to taunting Sarah Brown, loneliness and the weather, out of your safety zone it all goes wrong.
145. I can’t write and anything for a national blog would need heavy sub editing. I also thought splurge and would struggle with dead lines. Thank You for asking though.
Mods - scrub my two posts in mod.
155 And I love you too - MWAH!
154 - Martin and I will be looking into suitable launch events over the coming weeks.
A bottle of Manzanilla and some olives may be made available at some point which I think is rather generous given your thirst is obvious without the incentives.
130 - “She believes in the right of businesses to make money on the backs of their workers without any account of humane principles.”
Source? No, didn’t think so. Piss off.
144 - Have to say that in my view David Cameron has been excellent on the Media this week. I don’t think the Tories have had one outstandingly good campaign week this year yet on the other hand they have scored a bulls eye with the death tax posters. Not with the media pundits, I grant you but with the voters.Also very difficult for the Tories when the Media act as mere puppets in the hands of Labour in framing the news agenda. So for example Friday was Labour going big on Social care - surprise suprise we had a phone in on Friday Morning. Labour come out with their campaign slogan and so last night we have anoither phone in on it. Winterton makes a complete ass of himself (quite deliberately) so we have hours and hours and hours of comment and phone ins on it.
Having said all of that it is also up to us Tories to hammer home to the Party to stop the self inflicted wounds.Sadly there is nothing the Party can do about the constant torpedoing of David Cameron by the likes of Heffer and Dacre.
158, well best of luck with it. Aren’t you a tad worried though that some pber’s might follow you there with the intention of thread derailment ?
160 And since only people like Heffer read Heffer - I don’t think it matters one iota. Ditto Hitchens.
I’m astonished at the asinine comments in the DT from their readers - they are either UKIP stalwarts, Labour trolls or esaay writing weirdos.
The Times doesn’t get anything near the same level of bizarro comments, and neither does the Mail thinking about it?!!
I do enjoy the anarchy of the DT’s comment pages but the number of commets worth reading are about 10% IMO
162 - a very fair point Plato re Heffer and also the DT comments section.If anyone has any doubts why Cameron needed to do a brand detox simply turn to the comments section on the DT blogs and you will find your answer.
Peter Spencer on Sky talking about the danger for Brown of being seen as Rawnsley will portray him
Clip from Ch4 Intvw shown and he seems unequivocal about not lamping anyone - mind you he was sporting a modified gurn as he said it.
160 - I tend to be a bit sceptical of those who whinge about media bias.
Your party in the media is damaged more by people like Lansley and Grayling than it is by some journo who only those on the right read anyway.
Bunnco, I forgot to add you PB2 articles are much appreciated and very enjoyable reading, you’ve put a lot of work in there. Thanks
Yep! isn’t it wonderful all of those hard working councillors, putting in the hours to get their party elected to government. When the tide turns, they’ll all be voted out of office.
16
I read Heffer and Hitchens and am nothing like them, but most Tories I know are.
164 - I’ve always associated that gurn with him being untruthful. He employed that when asked about wanting to sack Darling at that monthly presser and again when Fraser Nelson gave him a hard time. He doesn’t seem to realise that a serious face would be more natural when accused of lying.
Can’t be bothered to look back through the comments, I take it this comment from Whelan has been noted.
Great day for Labour in Warwick. Could get better with Sunday papers poll.
Had a tip?
169 It’s really easy to check back through the thread.
Press Ctrl and F - a little box will appear, type in Whelan and hey presto.
165 - I do try and be fair on this issue and all I ask is for balance. I am not anti BBC as such but when for example they carelessly use the term “reform” of the voting system to describe AV that implies immediately to the viewer/hearer that its an improvement on the old system. To use the word “change” instead would be much fairer and more neutral.I could also bang on about the systematic misues of the word “progressive” as well and its automatic application to left of centre policies. There ae quite a fw of us who would argue that Maggie was “progresive” - but the term was /is never used of her. Its the mindset of the BBC I worry about - not that I believe that there is a deliberate attempt to be biased.
Still as I have said before its up to the Tories to stop shooting themselves in the foot.
On the question of councils and councillors helping LibDem PPCs at the GE, what is the perceived wisdom on the chances for those PPCs (including all sitting MPs seeking re-election) where their tranche of councillors have been decimated since 2005 and they have either lost control of the councils to NOC or in the case of Devon and Somerset to the Tories? Mark Senior will claim it means all LibDems will romp home but can we have a realistic assessment please?
In Scotland since 2005 the Labour Party has gone from almost total dominance to being no more than a major player. From runnng more than 20 councils out of 32 they now control only 2 and are in coalition in around a dozen. The SNP has the greatest number of councillors and in the areas where its target seats are most concentrated the Tories run the councils and hold Holyrood seats. The SNP begins the GE campaign controlling the councils and holding the Holyrood seats in all its main Labour held targets.
Some animals are more equal than others.
http://www.birminghampost.net/news/politics-news/2010/02/19/labour-impose-women-only-candidates-shortlist-for-walsall-south-seat-65233-25872974/
173 - strange that they did not do that in the seat that Dromey has been selected fo!
173, that’s a little unfair, they turned a blind eye at Erdington.
172 Does the marginal effect of a couple more council seats that creates NOC make any tangible difference?
Although I am very interested in politics and polling - I’ve only a very weak impression of the colour of my local council.
For those who couldn’t care less - would it matter?
Sky ticker says Conservatives need more than 9% lead to get a majority.
172 Two edged. If the Council was unpopular for a reason its removal may assist them as much as the loss of councillors may hinder them, provided they still retain a presence of some size on the council. Much also depends on where the councillors lost were, and if they were in Tory held or Lib Dem target seats as opposed to seats the Lib Dems already hold.
172 Cameron said you can judge the Conservative party by the way it has governed the Councils it has taken control of . Cornwall Devon and Nottinghamshire are councils where this has happened and the voters have given their thumbs down to the Conservatives .
Question for Mike and Robert
If the GE is almost here - capacity is no doubt going to be a huge issue. I’ve noticed on several occasions that PB has gone REALLY SLOW during PMQs and a couple of other hot stories.
The Amazon cloud doesn’t seem to have matched demand with capacity - can you update us on what you’re planning and if funds are needed in addition to those provided by Ladbrokes?
Re 173 From the article:
But the decision has drawn further attention to the decision to allow men to apply for the position of Labour candidate in Birmingham Erdington - where Jack Dromey, husband of Labour Deputy Leader Harriet Harman, has thrown his hat in the ring.
A Future ‘Fair’ For All?
http://tinyurl.com/yz828ks
On Topic.
Its perfectly possible of course that unpopular councils make for swings against the party that controls them at national level.
I’ve heard from Tories on here that the Lib Dem control of councils will hinder their chances in the SW, and some of the more nakedly Thatcherite Tory councils haven’t exactly helped their cause in the past, those now hitting services for the elderly at a local level may hurt their party in the GE.
On Topic.
Its perfectly possible of course that unpopular councils make for swings against the party that controls them at national level.
I’ve heard from Tories on here that the Lib Dem control of councils will hinder their chances in the SW, and some of the more Thatcherite Tory councils haven’t exactly helped their cause in the past, those now hitting services for the elderly at a local level may hurt their party in the GE.
@Nickcohen2
Daring media business model:You must got to a shop and buy an Observer WITH MONEY to read @andrewrawnsley’s revelations abt mad Gordie Brown
Will it be a sell out ?
Must say as “our Henry” has not tweeted on tonights polls I am getting rather pessimistic about them!
104
James,
no, just too interested in being MPs and not interested enough in their constituents or their principles. Same goes for the vast majority of MPs.
181
“A future fair for all”
Wasn’t this Himmler’s manifesto ?
re 180. We are still tweaking the configuration but everything is focussed on election day at precisely 10pm when the first news of the exit poll comes out. There might be a bit of a traffic spike.
172. I am a Lib Dem councillor but not in one of the key seats. However I know that for instance in Cheltenham where the Lib Dem MP has a wafer thin majority the LDS control the Council and there are probably more Lib Dem activists than at any time sicne 1992 when they gained the seat. Yes they do also have more money and in this case worth a wager.
I do agree with Bunco that councillors equal campiagners and other areas where local Lib Dem parties have not done so well are more vulnerabale. Thus seats like Eastleigh, Westmoreland and Cheltenham may well not fall where other outliers may do so.
179 Please take that pile of BS somewhere else. There was a reason the LD councils in Cornwall and Devon got thrown out last year.
@douglasge2010: Labour’s official election theme tune is “Tears of a clown”
177, bias or incompetence? *You* decide!
[I'm heavily in favour of incompetence].
183 dont think he does much now .last poll tweet was Jan 16 as far as I can see/
Evening all
The linkage between Council seats, activist strength and Parliamentary performance is well known and, if you’re an LD, a pre-requisite for success. Seats like Sutton, Cheltenham, Harrogate and Winchester were built on years of gathering strength at local level and it will be fascinating to see how seats like these perform.
The opposite will be true of course - I suspect Labour’s recovery (and that of the LDs locally) will begin on GE day and continue in the years to come. As Buncco has suggested, the Conservatives have probably got as many Council seats as they can get and we will see a decline in years to come.
The Conservatives lost 2,000 council seats in a single night in 1995 but it needs an entire four-year cycle to get a true picture. the Tories have enjoyed strong performances in the current cycle but the next four years will be much tougher and, just as life in the 90s for the Conservatives became tougher as their local base was destroyed, so the same might be true in the 10s.
176 Plato, arguably the loss of say 2 councillors from a group of 20-30 will make little difference. However when a party loses control of a council to another party, it loses the chairmanships of the various committees and surrenders the ability to set the media story released through local and regional newspapers and TV stations.
179 Mark remind us how many councils and how many hundred councillors has the LibDems lost since 2005? You really do cling to your “Dunny-on-the-Wold Parish council by-election” hopes don’t you
190 - it may be that they are behind the curve on this. Have to say that the more the 9pts lead is rammed home, the more likely in my view it is that the Tory lead will increase.
188 There may be several reasons why Libdems lost control in Devon and Cornwall last year but the Conservative control has been spectacularly unpopular since then .
183
Tweeting poll results is like phoning home after a journey: once you start doing it, you should continue or everyone gets worried.
196 - LOL
Poll alert
I’ve got embargoed details of a poll that MIGHT come out tonight. The embargo is for 0001 on Monday although the fieldwork finished last Wednesday. This might have been the survey that Mandy referred to this morning and there was a suggestion that the think-tank that commissioned it might release it earlier.
I’m also pretty certain that there will be a YouGov Daily Poll in the Sunday Times.
194, but news is all about being up to date. So, if your thinking is out of date then it’s incompetent.
200- Mike - I didn’t hear what Mandy said - can you enlighten me please?
200
Obviously the one Whelan refers to.
Dave enters the Lion’s den.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1252471/Cameron-appear-Alan-Titchmarsh-dismissing-Piers-Morgan-offer-wants-substantial.html
182 Newer Media Model - wait for the blogs and other papers to pick up the juicier stuff about Tone & Gordo, read online, then when its loaded up on the Observer/Guardian Online later tomorrow / Monday read the detail. £0.0p.
201 - agreed
195 Mark is also right being in control is not a recipe for success. Look at Torbay over the years where voters took the chance to boot out the Lib Dems, Tories and Lib Dems with brutal swings. I don’t know Torbay well but assume it was a view on the successes or oetherwise of the parties running the Councils. Yes I do know there is now an elected Mayor!
192 In the mid 90’s though they had already been in power nationally for well over a decade. They will near certain decline in number but the size and incline of the decline are the unknown factor.
re 202. You need to look through the morning thread.
187 madmacs thanks for that well considered answer. Very much in the Yellow Submarine style. If only Mark Senior could be so honest we Tories might develop some respect for his remarks.
I just hope your PPC appreciates the work done by his/her councillors. I know too many sitting MPs take them for granted.
202 - cheers - will do.
208 see 36.
Prime Minister ask voters to give Labour a ’second look’
Be careful, you might turn to stone
124
“It’s got everything to do with deliberate derailing.”
Not at all James. Just because you happen to disagree with Plato doesn’t mean she is trying in any way to derail threads. As I said in support of Southern Observer the other day there is a world of difference between posting smears and lies which one knows are likely to provoke a response from the other side and so derail a thread, and posting links to items which are of interest to many people on the forum and which are current news items.
You happen to be a flat-earther AGW believer and so don’t like what Plato posts. That does not mean that what she posts is intended to detract from the main thread topic - particularly since if you were to look back you would see that many of the threads she posts on are about bad news for Labour and so it is not in her interests to derail them.
188 Thanks Mike - must be a forecasting nightmare trying to work out the traffic profile - especially if it looks close.
Best Wishes
No I disagree Morris, Sky and most of Rupert Murdoch’s empire are on side with Labour(at the very least not to upset obama). The Sun on the other hand is hedging the Murdoch bet and is controlled by James.
I think if you look at the media in general Labour are far more influential (given the reach of broadcasting over print)
I think it would tally something like this
Labour = BBC, Sky, Guardian, Independent, Mirror.
Tories = The sun, the express.
non aligned and a bit crap = The Mail(dacre keeping a toe in gordons camp), The Telegraph(Mary riddell keeping a toe in gordons camp)
Non aligned and actually quite close to neutral - ITV and the Times.
Given Brown’s disasterous management of the country the only reason he remains in contention is because the media are so heavily in his favour.
200 - In which case the spread may be interesting.
I’ve had a chance to look through Shadsy’s tombola event on the constituencies.
If the polls narrow then Luton South is the value.
If they widen its BHam Hall Green and if they stay the same then its Luton South.
SO if I had to bet it would be Luton SOuth.
209. With respect, Easterross, I can’t help feel that you’ve been as consistent (indeed, obsessive) in predicting Lib Dem meltdown at the next election - especially in Scotland - as Mark has been in talking up Lib Dem chances.
Be very convenient is a good poll appears on the day of the big Labour relaunch and the evening that the Rawnsley book gets serialised (and if Whelan’s tw@ttering is anything to go about there must be some really bad stuff in there).
Reminds me of the big media push about the good poll the day after Gordo big conference speech, only virtually nobody in the media mentioned the people were polled before he spoke!
209 I have often said that council control can be a poisoned chalice . If only you could be more honest in your constant over hyping of Conservative prospects in Scotland we Libdems may develop more respect for your remarks .
194 Stodge you are quite correct and I suspect (and almost hope) we PB Tories will have torrid times on council election nights in the years to come assuming David Cameron wins and sets about sorting out the mess of UK plc. For what its worth I do think STV is a good system for full council elections but not for council by-elections.
Labour campaign song: Bucks Fizz - Land of Make Believe
Lib Dem: Paul Hardcastle - 19
Tory: Elvis Presley - It’s Now or Never
UKIP: Ode to Joy - Schiller/Beethoven
BNP: Das Lied der Deutschen - Haydn
219
Mark, You spend your life ramping lib Dem successes in local council by elections. You should take a look in the mirror.
195 Easterross - very interesting, thanks for that insight - didn’t appreciate the ‘influence’ angle to it all.
Labour ask for us to take a second look!
We now live in a country where…
“recording snowball throwing as “serious violent crime”.
and
“He reportedly said some of his officers were too cautious in recording crimes as they were confused by government regulations and caught up in bureaucracy.”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/8526256.stm
200 -thanks Mike, smell a rat though like with the ’slick salesman’ one. Mandy always brings that out in me.
221
SNP - We’re on the march wi’ Ali’s Army
Does anyone live near Dundee know why the population has fallen like a stone?
Without using the words sh1t and hole, preferably.
Mark Senior February 20th, 2010 at 6:38 pm “188 There may be several reasons why Libdems lost control in Devon and Cornwall last year but the Conservative control has been spectacularly unpopular since then .”
Mark apart from a couple of yr notorious by elections, what evidence have you “for the Conservative control has been spectacularly unpopular since then”?
Mike - any update on an interactive thread with MORI, ComRes or YouGov peeps?
218.
The whole thing is totally corrupt! Its peoples futures at stake and the media are just C4nts if they want Labour back in! whats the point of democracy … lets all go and riot to get what we want!… Bastards
I noticed looking back at the archives for May 5th 2005 that someone managed to give the exit poll details about 10 minutes before they were officially released at 10pm!
Do polls commissioned by think tanks have the same authenticitcy??
226 - On Scotish songs, many people slate the UK/English national anthem as being turgid (which it certainly can be). Why have Scotland opted for Flower of Scotland for the rugger when it is the only anthem I’ve ever heard that is patently worse and sounds like such a dirge that singing it would make you actually less likely to be up for the game?
Ireland has TWO songs much better than that, the Welsh one is good, the Italian sounds a bit silly and the marseillaise made me cry in Casablanca.
At the end of FoS you just want a good sleep.
230 - Wayne, calm down mate, we have several weeks to go yet and you might do yourself a mischief.
Have you tried Yoga..?
179
“Cornwall Devon and Nottinghamshire are councils where this has happened and the voters have given their thumbs down to the Conservatives.”
Really Mark? As far as Nottinghamshire goes I would suggest you are talking out of your backside. As yet there are no strong indications either way as to how people view the cuts. Certainly there are some people protesting but there are also plenty more who are glad to see measures being taken to control what has been one of the highest taxing councils in the country.
232 - Most think tanks are at least as respected as the Sun, and neither actually do the polling themselves.
219 How exactly is council control a poisoned chalice? It gives all parties a chance to demonstrate they know how to exercise power. One of the main reasons Paddy Ashdown cosied up to Blair was that he wanted to give senior Liberal Democrats a chance to govern in a coalition with Labour and prove that they were worthy of governing on a national level.
200 Mr Roe said last night that they’d be a poll in the Sunday Times.
231 - when I was in Denmark in 2001 they reported the exit poll at about 8.30 pm UK time - they can’t report the exit poll in the UK before the polls are closed in case they influence the voting.
237 - Think Shirley Porter and Derek Hatton.
It *really* depends on whether the councillors are any good. We’ve been getting good by-election results in Notts because the incoming Tory adminstration has been such a train crash (as a Derbyshire Tory observed here), whereas I know of places (no, not saying where) where the Tory council is quite popular and presumably helps the cause.
Just came in from four hours on the doorsteps so have only seen the BBC web clip of Brown’s speech - sounded great to me, but these things are in the eye of the beholder, aren’t they? More generally, we’re pretty chuffed by the sense of coordination and momentum this week. We were promised materials to deliver this weekend which would tie in with the Coventry event, and blow me, they actually arrived as described on Thursday and we’ve been zealously putting them out; we also know exactly what will follow in the next days. I don’t think I’m giving away any secrets when I say that this level of coherent campaigning is not a familiar phenomenon. We grunts in the trenches do like to see that High Command is paying attention.
Was it Waugh that blogged about a 1% lead? It wouldn’t surprise me to find we have a Yes Minister type poll coming. Happy to be proved wrong but it’s all timed for the Launch.
217 Jack Peterson
While Easterross can be as partisan as any of us, he is also one of the best analysts of the Scottish political scene posting here.
There is a fair amount of polling evidence that LD support has plummeted here since 2005.
It’s an error to think of the LDs in Scotland as similar to the “3rd party” that they are in England. There are a significant group of voters in Scotland who do not vote tribally, but move their votes around in different elections and have no difficulty in voting LD/SNP/Green/Lab or a smaller group willing to vote LD/SNP/Green/Con, dependent on circumstances.
The LD vote next time is likely to be highly concentrated in certain seats.
People really need to calm down about the media conspiracy.
It’s less design and more circumstance. Nothing that a good Tory press office couldn’t get round.
Labour were in a much worse position in 1992 with regard to the media than the Tories are now. The printed press was far more influential and they had hardly any support there other than the usual cheerleaders. Certainly they only had one of the biggest 6 papers and the others were firmly in the Tory camp.
236
Thanks tim, your answer is about as worthless as one would expect.
Yes here it is..
But the shock news for me - and I am not going to name the pollster involved - is that earlier this week after the Brown/Piers love-in, some fieldwork showed that the Tories had a lead of just ONE point. Yes, you read that correctly. ONE point.
Given that Labour have only to be five points behind (because of the quirks of their inbuilt majorities) to emerge as the largest party, that is very much ‘game on’ for Gordon.
http://waugh.standard.co.uk/
234.
No but nearly had a hernia earlier, when i aimed the telly, after GURNER SPOKE!
127. “Nasty little outbreak of PWF* this afternoon, James.
You are quite right to stamp on it.
*Posting while female.”
Another truly stunning example of a PB “F” there, Constan. Was it intended as some sort of crackdown on the shocking scourge of VONTP?
*PB “F” = Political Betting “Funny”
*VONTP = Very Occasional Non-Tory Posts
242 If so, it’ll get Tory arses in gear like nothing else
Frankly, I’m chilled about the polls - the average scores have been 40-30-20 for months and unless something cataclysmic happens I don’t expect a big change.
246 - Kristin - I simply believe any poll like that is pure garbage although it would no doubt make headline news.
221. David Roe
Green Party: Das Lied von der Erde (Mahler)
244 But labour can always rely on a more than fair hearing from the broadcast media.
I just don’t think the reach or effect of print journalism is anwhere near that of broadcast media.
235 As Nick Palmer posts at 242 the Conservative control in Notts has been a train crash .
Incidentally, I finally met a voter who wants to vote for a hung parliament. He informed me: “I’m really a LibDem and I want to maximise the party’s influence. I know this is a marginal where the LibDems can’t win. So if the Tories are ahead nationally I shall vote Labour, and if Labour is ahead nationally I shall vote Tory.”
How the devil do I record that on the canvass recorrds??
154. “Coxall and I are also looking for some SNP input, would you be interested?”
Yes, let me know what you have in mind, Tim.
217 Jack Peterson my views on the prospects for the LibDems in Scotland at the GE (incidentally shared by Stuart Dickson, Christina D, Scott P, Oldnat, James Kelly, Marcia and Kristin) are based on what has happened to the LibDems since 2005.
In 2007 they lost 3 FPTP seats, 2 to the SNP and 1 to the Tories. They also saw 2003 majorities in other seats evaporate especially in that of their then leader in Aberdeen South.
Their situation in Aberdeen City council where the Group leader had to be effectively deposed was more like a Shakespearean tragedy and Aberdeenshire council is nothing short of shambolic with 4 councillors leaving the party over the Donald Trump fiasco.
In Edinburgh the LibDem/SNP coalition seems to spend more time fighting internally than against either Labour or the Tories.
In the South of Scotland they were replaced by the Tories as the dominant party on both Borders Council and Dumfries and Galloway.
Following the high water mark of the Dunfermline by-election, they collapsed in neighbouring Glenrothes and saw their vote melt in both Glasgow East and Glasgow North East, in each case falling behind the Tories whom they had been well ahead of in 2005.
Therefore I think I have some justification in expressing the views I do.
253 what about Cornwall and Devon?
242, that was couched in terms that suggested it was a regional subsample, unweighted or weighted favourably.
254, you could add a column headed “Obnoxious twonks”
254. “How the devil do I record that on the canvass records??”
Simple - a genuine floating voter. Just of an exotic variety!
243. Old Nat - I agree that Easterross makes many valuable posts. But in his treatment of Lib Dem prospects in Scotland (and Vince Cable’s background as a Glasgow Labour councillor) he can occasionally seem slightly obsessive…
C4 News says there is a new poll today showing a 10pt lead for the tories????
by Nick Palmer MP February 20th, 2010 at 7:10 pm “How the devil do I record that on the canvass recorrds??”
Do you not have a code “I” for idiot?
252 You’re right but one thing I’m confident about is the ‘commensense’ angle.
Some on here deride phone-ins etc - I don’t.
I’ve listened to them for yrs and they’ve never been wrong when popular opinion has been taken into account - right back to the Pakistan earthquake when R5 were forced to change the topic after 20mins [as a result of 7/7 backlash] or again when covering intrusive media coverage of Maddy - ditto.
The wisdom of crowds is a powerful thing that I’m happy to work with.
So - if comments in the Times say AGW is cobblers, Gordon on Piers was appalling and Labour’s slogan is crap - I believe them.
261. I saw that too.
261/264, any idea what it is?
260. Easterross also has a blind spot regarding the decline of the Scottish Tories e.g. losing an MSP in 2007 (just like the Lib Dems) and managing a worse result in the 2009 Euros than in 2004.
233. “Why have Scotland opted for Flower of Scotland for the rugger when it is the only anthem I’ve ever heard that is patently worse and sounds like such a dirge that singing it would make you actually less likely to be up for the game?”
Flower of Scotland is a superb song but only when performed properly. It’s very hard for the crowd to keep in time with, hence the wheeze of the “a capella” second verse. But the lyrics are ideal for a national anthem - it looks to the past, present and future simultaneously.
Incidentally, the Commonwealth Games athletes have decided to finally switch to Flower of Scotland for this year’s games after years and years of using Scotland the Brave.
265 Most likely YouGov for the ST.
Ha, just checking the Broan Propaganda Service website, headline is Brown claiming he’s never hit anyone.
A step up from calling an aide a chump whilst naked, or a step down?
10% Conservative lead would be nice.
To revert to the original topic, the Conservative Party’s strength in depth in terms of councillors in the shires and the market towns is something of a two-edged sword. Council duties can take committed workers off the streets into the coridors of power during election times but, conversely, it can make for better informed, more confident campaigners who know their “patches” like the back of their hand.
The other side of the coin, the weakness of the Labour Party, is probably as important a factor. In many of these areas the Liberal Democrats are the principal opponents of the Conservatives and likewise where their numbers are reduced they can be very disillusioned.
Exactly the same thing happened in reverse in the 1990s when the Labour Party was on the rise and the Conservatives had shrunk towards their core vote. The effect on Liberal Democrats is more pronounced as their core vote tends to be smaller allowing more scope for shrinkage.
Bunnco’s analysis is broadly correct in my experience.
246 Kristin
For all we know that ’some fieldwork’ could have been carried out in Bootle……
233, on anthems:
I like the French and Italian ones, and Ireland’s two (greedy) are quite good.
The Welsh and Scots’ are whiny and pathetic.
God Save the Queen has rather grown on me.
I like Flower of Scotland, but it does sound better without accompaniment. It’s at its best roared out by the Murrayfield crowd with ten minutes to go in a close Six Nations game, rather than with bagpipes beforehand.
271 Haven’t seen you posting before - if so Welcome and thanks for the insight.
Headline on BBC News website - “Brown - I have never hit anyone”. That’s the next news cycle covered then…
268, we shall see
253
Not if you are one of the many council tax payers who has had to suffer years of extortionate Labour taxation at county level.
And the only by election so far since the Torys took over has seen a win for… the Torys.
Now I am not going to defend the Tory’s on everything but as far as cutting costs is concerned I think the more the better. Particularly given the stupid levels of council tax that the previous Labour administration were imposing.
263 I hope you are right Plato.
but Commonsense says brown was in charge of regulation of banks for example so you would of thought the man charged with ultimately regulating competition stopping cartels and monopolies(the natural aim of business) would be getting the real blame, When what we seem to have is lack of competition, cartels and monopolies, but commonsense is overridden if enough people deny it enough times(ie Gordon’s friends in the media).
Lets hope commonsense prevails in the end.
260. “Old Nat - I agree that Easterross makes many valuable posts. But in his treatment of Lib Dem prospects in Scotland (and Vince Cable’s background as a Glasgow Labour councillor) he can occasionally seem slightly obsessive…”
Jack, the Lib Dems are almost bound to slump in Scotland in terms of the popular vote, simply because they’re starting from such a high base in 2005 due to the Kennedy factor. What effect that will have on seats is almost impossible to predict - in 1992 they somehow clung on to the nine seats they won (as the Alliance) in 1987 despite losing 6% of the vote. I think that sort of resilience is unlikely to be repeated, but you never know.
243 oldnat, thanks for the reply you left for me on the overnight thread. Incidentally, I’m not a Tory, but for this election I’m in the anti-Labour camp.
256 Scottish Borders council
2003 LibDems elected 8 Conservatives 11
2007 Libdems elected 10 Conservatives 11
How is that being replaced by the Conservatives as the dominant party ?
263. “So - if comments in the Times say AGW is cobblers, Gordon on Piers was appalling and Labour’s slogan is crap - I believe them.”
There is a rather obvious alternative interpretation.
273 The reason Ireland has 2 is very simple to accomodate the northern players in the Irish Rugby team that’s why. It is the same reason after the grand slam the team had official meetings with both the Queen and the Irish President.
254 Nick Palmer MP … if the Tories are ahead nationally I shall vote Labour, and if Labour is ahead nationally I shall vote Tory.”
How the devil do I record that on the canvass recorrds??
Sounds like he’s going to vote Labour then.
Hysterical Hague tries to top “24 Hours to Save the Pound”
http://www.newsoftheworld.co.uk/news/734770/In-exclusive-interview-William-Hague-accuses-PM-of-sabotage.html
Have followed up that link to bunnco’s piece. I must say I find it fascinating how quickly Labour’s share of councillors collapsed once they won in ‘97. Basically, the moment people found out for themselves what NuLab was like, they started dumping them. Whereas the Tory share of councillors held up pretty well in the 80’s.
An excellent piece of analysis by bunnco.
278 voreas - I think that’s too hard/esoteric an issue for peeps to have a gut reaction to.
It’s like complex fraud trials compared to a murder.
Poll alert
I’ve got embargoed details of a poll that MIGHT come out tonight. The embargo is for 0001 on Monday although the fieldwork finished last Wednesday. This might have been the survey that Mandy referred to this morning and there was a suggestion that the think-tank that commissioned it might release it earlier.
I’m also pretty certain that there will be a YouGov Daily Poll in the Sunday Times.
by Mike Smithson February 20th, 2010 at 6:40 pm
Mike 0001 Monday, sounds like it’s supposed to coincide with Monday announcement of GE ? No ?
Incidently I’ve bet on March and April some time ago so it would suit me fine.
282 And what is that?
260 Jack, I think genuinely the decline in the Scottish Liberal vote will be one of the defining aspects of the GE in Scotland. I hope many who rallied to the yellow diamond in 2005 will revert to the blue rectangle in 2010 but of course I may be wrong and my fellow Scot and PB friend NoOffenceAlan (266) clearly disagrees with me on this.
One of us will be wrong and if it is me then I will defer to Alan’s greater knowledge gracefully.
As for Vince Cable, he was one of the first Labour politicians I came across as a young and frightening politically aware 9 year old when I delivered leaflets for Lord Strathclyde’s father on my bicycle around my ward in Hillhead. I also bear a personal grudge against Vince and all his fellow Labour councillors who out of nothing more than class hatred and spite destroyed some of Scotland’s greatest schools in the 1970s.
They resented boys and girls who were academically gifted from very poor working class areas of Glasgow attending wonderful private schools like the High School of Glasgow, the Girls High School of Glasgow, Hillhead and my school Allan Glen’s so they withdrew the funding which paid for the working class kids to benefit from the sort of education which created a Nobel laureate and some of the greatest engineers and industrialists Britain has seen plus Dirk Bogarde.
Good vid from Cammo.
“Anyone who has lived in this country for the last 13 years knows what Brown says is untrue.”
http://playpolitical.typepad.com/uk_conservative/2010/02/labour-has-hurt-the-many-says-cameron.html
TimMontgomerie
Unconfirmed but Tories 10% ahead in new poll (I expect for YouGov/ SunTimes) and all before Rawnsley’s revelations expected at 9.30pm
Last You Gov Sunday Times poll 40/31/18/11.Lead 9%
A 10% lead suggests small change Ie Lab -1 or Tory +1
293, i.e. steady as she goes.
285, scorched earth has been remarked upon very often for a long time.
I’d say a better example of hysteria would be to claim Labour will cure cancer if people vote for them.
Any poll with the lead in double figures and Tory’s over 40 is good.
231 Publication of exit polls before the end of polling is an offence contrary to section 66A(3) of the Representation of the People Act 1983.
Did someone mention AGW a while ago?
The money sink aspect continues….this is just idiotic
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/christopherbooker/7280348/60m-bill-for-the-CO2-of-our-political-class.html
The British Government, as revealed by the EU’s Official Journal, has allocated £60 million of taxpayers’ money to be spent on buying carbon credits from the Third World for the use of government buildings and other official purposes – so that our civil servants can continue to benefit from the CO2 emissions needed to keep their offices warm and lit.
The Government has contracted to buy these credits, mainly available from China and India, through 10 British and foreign companies, including Barclays Bank and a branch of J P Morgan rather oddly situated in a back street in Oxford.
Our entire Government machine – politicians and civil servants alike – is now obsessively dedicated to the proposition that we must drastically cut our “carbon emissions” to save the planet, at virtually unlimited cost. But when it comes to the officials and politicians themselves having to make sacrifices, as our own fuel bills soar, they have quietly arranged for the rest of us to shell out £60 million to allow them to carry on much as before.
The story then becomes even more bizarre. The contracts with Barclays, J P Morgan and co – who will retain up to £9 million in commissions – will be used to buy Certified Emissions Reduction (CER) credits under the UN’s Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) set up under the 1997 Kyoto Protocol.
293 Wasn’t the last poll a YouGov that had the Tories on 7/8% in the Sun or have I lost the plot?
I’m getting polled out and they haven’t announced a date yet
Tim Montgomerie tweets…
Unconfirmed but Tories 10% ahead in new poll (I expect for YouGov/ SunTimes) and all before Rawnsley’s revelations expected at 9.30pm
Tories will be pleased with that poll. A week of Labour policy launches and electioneering, and they have a double digit lead.
Brown’s interview on C4 was dreadful. A sitting prime minister having to deny that he has “ever hit people”. This is the problem of his going personal - a la Tears for Pears - people are now going to focus on his persona.
Oh dear.
253 - how exactly has the Tory administration in Notts made a mess of things?
Tim Montgomerie has tweeted.
Unconfirmed but Tories 10% ahead in new poll (I expect for YouGov/ SunTimes) and all before Rawnsley’s revelations expected at 9.30pm
299 - it was, a 39/32 split.
289. “And what is that?”
That many of them are Tory astroturfers. At the very least, the idea that people who comment on Times articles are some kind of representative cross-section of the public is more than a little fanciful.
299 - Last YouGov poll has:
Con - 39
Lab - 32
LD - 18
that was the daily tracker for The Sun
300. Snap!
All these people Gordo has allegedly abused and assaulted, wouldn’t it be terrible if after all the denials from #10 and now from the horse’s mouth on C4, a former staffer was to pop up and claim they are one of the victims…
274. Plato - OldHand is exactly that, an ‘OldHand’ - he’s be around intermittently for yonks.
286. “whereas the Tory share of councillors held up pretty well in the 80’s.”
The interesting thing about the graph on my PB2 article is that the Tories have returned to almost pre-1979 councillor numbers [despite the recent rash of Unitary conversions, which have reduced the absolute number of councillors] and that’s despite the creation of the LibDems in the meantime.
At this point in time the historical pre-1979 graph, it shows that the LibDems and Labour are fishing in the same pool against the Tories.
And that’s what current polling is showing. The Tories are constant c40% with the LibDems/Labour sharing the spoils.
298 And Enron were the proponents of carbon credit trading - I think that says it all really.
To coin their own corporate slogan ‘Why?’
The carbon credit market is another dotcom bubble - nothing tangible changes hands yet billions of dollars are made by the savvy ones.
Apart from the last poll in the Sun wouldn’t it be fair to say that rather than the Tory lead narrowing the drift has been either to see the lead stabilising or even increasing?
301 SeanT, Pears or bananas ? :o)
The thing is most folks like to assume the best about people, but MP’s aren’t regarded as ‘people’ in that sense, especially after expenses, so assuming the worst is likely to be the case. POGWAS
Interesting to note, did Gordo deny he “ever HIT anybody”…isn’t the Rawnsley stuff that he pulled a secretary out of a chair and knocked somebody over when they got in his way. So technically those accusations aren’t that he hit anybody.
All sounds a bit like the old Andrew Marr happy pills question and answer.
311, very recently yes. Too early, I think, to call it a trend, but with possibly 2 polls out shortly we may be able to do so.
Assuming the whelan tweeted poll isn’t a work of fiction with leading statements about Cameron.
311. Peter - The last five YouGov polls have been leads of 7, 9, 7, 9 and 10 (assuming this 10 is YouGov). It would be brave to suggest a clear upward trend from that.
273. Morris, nothing is more pathetic tahn God save the Queen
Given the daily nature of the polling, I suspect we might be seeing the daily fluctuations.
The demographic profile of people answering polls at weekends will be slightly different to that on weekdays - and I reckon, slightly more Tory.
That said, I will be very happy if Labour are taken down a couple of notches.
307/300 - I beat you both lol - see 292.
315. Sorry, I meant 9, 7, 9, 7 and 10.
What lead do the Tories need to win?
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/5788018/what-lead-do-the-tories-need-to-win.thtml
316, piffle! You grumpy parochial Scottish turnip!
308 - you are right but can you imagine the way that the good name of that person would be horrendously smeared by the Brown machine. Bound to give anybody in that position pause for thought before going public.Mandy was up to the same tricks yesterday on TV with his comments about the 20 economists who wrote to the Times earlier this week.
267 - The lyrics ARE good but it just doesn’t WORK.
It could be that the crowd at a rugby match just expect Scotland to lose and so do the players and that’s why it sounds as bad as it does.
305 I’ve never noticed the Times being infested with any particular party which is why I take more notice of their readership views than any other paper.
As I said upthread, they also reflect phone-in views - now unless one party is coordinating dial in propaganda 5 days a week x 52 weeks of the year - then it’s pretty unlikely that CCHQ are behind it.
319. James Kelly.
That looks like “either [...] stabilising or even increasing” to me.
280 AnneJGP
I apologise humbly for casting such a scurrilous slur on your reputation!
Just caught a bit of Gordon’s speech I missed this morning re the NHS. HE is a lying scumbag. Labour to save from Tory cuts to healthcare, cancer treatment times etc. Has no-one told him David Cameron and Andrew Lansley have confirmed the NHS budget is to be protected against cuts.
In response to Alan’s point re the Tories in Scotland. Indeed we did do less well last year than 5 years earlier in the Euros and as Scotland lost 1 of its 7 seats it was always going to be our second seat which would be lost since clearly both Labour and the SNP were going to poll well ahead of us.
As for the GE, I expect the Scottish Tories to rise to around 20% of the poll. If as I expect we put on votes in the 20 seats where we have had a substantial presence in the last 30 years, I will be disappointed if we do not see between 4 and 10 Tory gains.
Predicting us winning between 8% and 17% of Scotland’s seats when in England we are expected to win in excess of 50% of the seats can hardly be called an unreasonable expectation. With 15% of the vote 5 years ago we did manage second place in 15 seats so realistically in most of those seats if the sitting MP loses we have a fair chance of being the party replacing him/her. I personally see 6 gains as being the most likely result which I have been predicting since shortly after joining the PB “family”.
273 - I absolutely LOVE Ireland’s Call.
Due to being English, I am rather ambivalent as regards to the Soldier’s Song
Incidentally, when this new blog (CoxallAndTheWelcher.com?) starts up, is it too much to hope for that the welcher will stop polluting this blog 18 hours a day, 7 days a week?
316. Although I would consider myself a unionist I have to say that “The Queen” is the most God awful dirge of a tune!
The American, French and Irish anthems are far better, as is Flower of Scotland!
323 What did you think of Hain and Rwanda.
Bit testy on here tonight.
Rawnsley will not break out of political geekdom - damp squib.
325. “That looks like “either [...] stabilising or even increasing” to me.”
It looks like the first of those things all right - but as I wasn’t taking issue with that part of Peter’s observation I’m not quite sure what your point is.
319 - I was thinking aloud more than anything else! there as the ComRes poll showing the lead increasing to 11 points earlier this week. I am not making a big deal out of it ,but simply pointing out how glibly people talk about the lead narrowing when I don’t think the polls in the last 2-3 weeks have really showed that.
315 James Kelly
“If” it is a YouGov poll then (linked with other very recent polling data) it does look like Tory lead stabilising or even increasing./
261 JamesBrett
C4 News says there is a new poll today showing a 10pt lead for the tories????
Perhaps Charlie Whelan has a problem with decimal points?
Wouldn’t be the first time Labour have followed Tory policies.
Hmmm… not sure whether this is accurate
RT @abelardinelli: Tory lead down to 6pts in You Gov/Sun Times poll Con 39(-1), Lab 33(+2), LD 17(-1) - according to PA #gameon #fighttowin
http://twitter.com/Andrew_GwynneMP/status/9396532923
Spectator Coffee House catches-up with PB.com. I suppose that’s progress.
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/5788018/what-lead-do-the-tories-need-to-win.thtml
325. Intuitively (or, to be more blunt, I can’t be arsed to check) I detect a slight widening of the Tory lead following an undeniable wobble in late January-mid February.
I am ignoring the YouGov daily trackers on the Rod Crosby Basis, a complex algorithmical equation which means you must unfortunately discard the most unhelpful data on the grounds that you just feel like it.
@KerryMP just tweeted:
“RT@abelardinelli Tory lead down to 6pts You Gov poll tmw Con 39 (-1) Lab 33 (+2) LD 17 (-1) #gameon <def feels like this on #labourdoorstep”
Slightly sceptical myself but please call that election. There is real anger in this country about Labour.
337. Hahah! The plot thickens. Or not.
Polls which show a narrowing lead are being reported a lot more than those which don’t, as they don’t fit the ‘current’ media narrative…. Hence if you have a yougov poll 7% lead then showing a 10% lead, and another showing a 7%, the narrative is one of always closing.
Of course having extra councillors does help - to an extent. Partly that is because a good councillor is an emissary for the party and hopefully the candidate and partly because the need to provide feedback to the electorate builds up the party machine and holds it up between elections.
But not all councillors are of equal weight and some have to be carried by the machine rather than supporting it. Of course a makeweight councillor keeps an opponent out and makes that difference in that negative way.
To an extent there is a risk of confusing cause and effect. Certainly a LD MP makes it easier for LD councillors to be elected. Presumably if a LD MP loses then the coterie of councillors become more vulnerable.
Historically the Tories have had less of a link between councillors and MPs with unindependent independents making up the shortfall. The number of Tories on South Lakeland rose as Tim Collins’ majority fell.
I guess that if Tim Farron loses in this election at least a third of the LD councillors on SLDC become immediately vulnerable as suddenly they would have to fend for themselves.
Completely O/t
I’m stuck in a hotel room in Belgium and forced to watch early evening BBC 1. There’s some strange quiz prog on with Dale Winton. If this is supposed to be a cross section of the population I really worry for the intellectual abilities of the UK
I had the temerity to suggest that the life chances of an Old Etonian were greater than those of someone brought up on a Glasgow estate. Naturally I was rubbished.
Well today the Guardian ran an article on Cameron’s rise. Apparently Lady Astor told Michael Green that her soon to be son-in-law wanted a job in industry. Sight unseen aged 27 he was offered the job of PR man at a salary of £90,000 a year (£170,000 in to-days money). The Guardian assured it’s readers that this is normal practice for Old Etonians seeking employment.
I don’t know a lot about Glasgow estates apart from filming on one once but from what I saw that sort of nepotism wasn’t obvious.
323. “The lyrics ARE good but it just doesn’t WORK.”
Well, it certainly worked pretty well on St Patrick’s Day twenty years ago! There have also been some fantastic renditions of Flower of Scotland at Hampden - it just needs a bit of imagination to get it to work. I seem to remember a very fast guitar accompaniment really did the trick once - which is not surprising, given that the Corries used to perform it that way.
232. Not sure I like the sound of polls being commissioned by ‘think tanks’.
There’s no reason why we shouldn’t move on from polls being used for dubious purposes (as now) to polls which are outright skewed in a deliberate move to ramp one party or other.
In the hurly-burly of a GE, any poll is likely to be reported, no matter how dubious the provenance. So setting up a ‘pollster’ to get results favouring your side (to be quietly shut down again later) is an obvious black op move…
Re 337 Saw that tweet, came straight here. Is Brown going to call a snapper for 25th March..?
Well if we start getting polls showing different pictures, they’ll just be ignored.
Complelety confused now….
http://playpolitical.typepad.com/labour_party/2010/02/gordon-brown-denies-he-has-ever-hit-another-person.html
5 More Years, really, come on…..
Listen to the arguments….they are pathetic.
Sounds like the 10 point lead is either a chimera, or a different poll. Do we have two polls, one with a six point lead, and one with 10?
Confused on Primrose Hill.
If the lead is 6 for Labour then Brown should call that GE immediately. It surely won’t get any better.
What credibility can pollsters have if one is saying 10 points and another saying 1 point?
347. There’s nothing ’snap’ about any election call at any point from now on.
From this morning’s traffic
The election won’t be in March - people don’t have to believe me if they don’t want to, but I have a reason to know that it won’t.
by Nick Palmer MP February 20th, 2010 at 9:47 am
Roger, so answer my question from yesterday, has this 18 year old Glasgow estate dweller seen their chances improve under 13 year of Labour?
If that tweet is true then all my thoughts about the lead stabilising have ben thrown out of the window. What puzzles me though is suely C4News must have had reliable info that it was 10pts before actually eporting it - albeit as unconfirmed.
347 - hope so.
Sky confirm 39/33/17 in the ST
From Charlie Whelan’s twitter:
“No wonder some people now want to smear Gordon Brown with poll lead now down to 6 points. Happy Birthday Gordon.”
Charlie Whelan on Twitter:
“No wonder some people now want to smear Gordon Brown with poll lead now down to 6 points. Happy Birthday Gordon.”
Irony alert, from Draper’s mate.
sky news 39/33/17
Tory Lead 6 points!
Sky saying it’s 39/33/17 in Sun Times.
356. Well, the obvious answer is that there are TWO polls. One 10, one 6.
Hey, maybe there are no polls. Then we all look stupid.
Evening all. Not sure we can believe any poll rumours. Until I see figures from a reputable source I will believe nothing. On a totally off topic note was out at a junk shop today and spotted an Edward VIII coronation bone china cup in mint condition. Picked it up for £3. Pretty sure it was a steal. Also had my previous purchase valued, paid £4 for a mint condition glass George VI coronation dish valued today at £150.
Thanks to bunnco for an excellent article on pb2.
One longer term factor that will make the Labour recovery much more difficult is that in some parts of the North such as Newcastle, Durham and Liverpool the Lib Dems are the councillors that Labour will have to remove to get back. And the Lib Dems will not be in Govt.
In large parts of the South Labour have no councillors and nothing to build from. They have simply died. Comeback there is a 10 year task.
Ho ho ho,
After minutes of Tory bashing..Gordo goes on the father / background stuff to try and reflect the allegations about his temper and says “I never heard my father say a bad word about anybody..and I….”
351 - Why would Brown want a snap election if Labour is improving in the polls and the Tories dropping?
If the trend downwards in the Tory lead since Oct continues the more people see of the Shadow Front Bench then why go early?
I can’t believe the LDs will end up so low. It looks like, for whatever reason, Labour’s gained strongly from the LDs over the last couple of months - but when it comes doen to it, LDs 17%? No chance, surely.
BAD for the Tories. Let’s hope Rawnsley puts the boot in.
323. “Sky confirm 39/33/17 in the ST”
Oooh, is that lead stabilising…or even narrowing?
When scum like Whelan go on about smearing Brown - the irony.
Tory vote share pretty solid even though the lead is down. Where do the Lib Dems go from here as Labour seems to be picking up vote share from them. Clegg’s strategy of attacking the Tories does not seem to be working.
Now we are into territory where the spreads will move.
368 - well if the LibDems keep going after the wrong target and ignoring the one that nicks their vote.. hell mend them.
Wonder if there is another poll coming out then. ICM?
As James Kelly, tim and roger would agree, it looks like the country really does want 5 more years of Gordon Brown.
This country really is f**ked.
367: Why would Brown want a snap election if Labour is improving in the polls and the Tories dropping?
Because, welcher, “trend” is meaningless. Once people have switched, they’ve switched - you then need to persuade more to switch for the lead to narrow further.
Also, this is still (just) within MoE of the settled position of 40/30/20.
Lib Dem’s on 17% my arse! Clegg ain’t very good, but 17%, no way, and Labour only down 2% from last GE….Doesn’t pass the common sense test to me.
Oh the irony ..
charliewhelan
No wonder some people now want to smear Gordon Brown with poll lead now down to 6 points. Happy Birthday Gordon.
39/33 is still only “possible HP” territory, since the Tories are only one point short of the 40% level that guarantees a majority.
Filth like Whelan talk about smearing. What a joke.
326 oldnat, you’re a gentleman, sir (at least I think so - ISTR a reference to Mrs oldnat).
So the Libdems losing vote share to Labour huh?
That is a f*cking rubbish lead for the Tories. The useless toffeenosed chumps are gonna lose the election to the worst prime minister in living memory who has officially presided over an economic disaster.
FFS, I could beat Labour with my left nipple on fire, while writing a perfect Petrarchan sonnet with my eyelashes.
Cameron is an idiot. Ditto Osborne. Tory halfwits. Thank God I am no longer a British resident. Britain, the worst governed country in the West.
is this the commissioned poll??
Spike that story!!!!
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8526180.stm
Is the MORI monthly poll due?
384. Here we go with the hysteria again
384 - Tory Lead with YouGov averaged 14% in October before Cameron Malfunctioned, halved in 6 Months.
Thats one hell of an achievement by the Tory Front Bench
Gordon Brown denies that he has ever hit another person.
Is that as good as Clinton’s denial of ever having sex with that woman.
i.e. a hit being defined as one that drew blood or incapacitated the person?
mike, is this the embargoed poll??
The next stage of the LibDem slide is when that slice of their soft vote that is appalled at the idea of “Gordon Brown: Five More Years!” hold their noses and vote Tory….
Serious squeeze ahead for the LibDems.
376. “As James Kelly, tim and roger would agree, it looks like the country really does want 5 more years of Gordon Brown.”
I don’t think the country wants five more years of Gordon Brown and neither do I. I just think people are beginning to wake up to the ultimate nightmare of a majority Tory government.
327. Easterross, did you see my post at 6. above about results in 2007 relative to a Uniform National Swing?
“In the name of the father”
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/5788058/in-the-name-of-the-father.thtml
388. You don’t see a teensywensy bit of a problemetto, that your lead has gone from 20 to 6 in about six months?
No? And this despite almost relentlessly bad economic news? And this despite your opponents being led by a man who has to deny he hits his staff?
Mm? You have no problem with this? Your party is rubbish. Osborne of the Lower Sixth should have been replaced months and months ago, he looks like an idiot posh boy. I’m sure he’s clever, but a Shadow Chancellor during a near-Depression. Nah.
I begin to think Labour are gonna WIN, not just scrape to a Hung Parliament. And if they do win, it will be because there are too many rich silly boys at the top of the Tory tree.
This is a problem of which we warned you, a long long time ago.
331 - Sorry, Punter, I answered on the previous thread.
I don’t think it was the most sensible thing I’ve ever read but I’m not going to jump down his throat about it or mock him. You know what he means is that Britain might be having a bad time at the moment but there is no need to go overboard with the we’ve gone to the dogs’ stuff.
Tory share solid then.
Not exactly Cammo’s fault if a few Lib Demers have switched back to Labour because Gordon cried on camera.
At some point there is always a poll that shows the race tightening. It is rarely the most reliable poll. If this represents the real state of opinion in the country I’d be staggered.
344 Blue Rog
There’s some strange quiz prog on with Dale Winton.
You are watching “National Lottery. In it to win it.”
Think of it as a national poll merged with a think tank.
New thread
No one should underestimate the numbers of voters likely to get seriously twitchy at the thought of a Tory victory. It’s interesting that however crap Brown and Labour have been 60% still don’t want the Tories.
Now that 60% are seeing the whites of the Tories eyes they are collectively realizing they need to stop it. Read todays Guardian. The first really anti Tory edition.
“Gordon Brown denies that he has ever hit another person”
I’m sure ‘tim’ will be along in a minute to decry such a bully – ad infinitum.
Or maybe not.
NEW THREAD
If somebody credible comes forward and says “Actually, Gordon Brown did hit me” then Brown is in extreme danger.
330, blasphemy!
I must admit Land of Hope and Glory, Jerusalem or Rule Britannia would get the crowd going more, but I still like God Save the Queen.
We should just play the last 30 minutes of the Proms
384, calm down dear, it’s just an opinion poll.
We had ARS with 14 point lead, and someone or other with 10. If we got more like this, I’d believe it. Now, I don’t.
New Thread
From this it sems that about 40% have made up their minds to vote Conservative - Labour is improving at the expense of the Lib Dems.
Clearly hung Parliament territory and if Cam wants to get an oveall majority somehow he has got to pesuade Lb Dem changers to come over to him. A tricky one - and a lot harder task than Sean T
recognises as the Labour vote switched to the Lib Dems in 2005 because of Iraq and by their vey nature I would not think that they were easily persuadable to go that one step further and vote Tory. By the same token so hard is the Conservative support that I struggle to see how Labour can progress much beyond a level of 30-33 points.
So its all off the Lib/Dems ?
233. David Roe. Leeds fan as well me. And Le Marsaillase scene in Casablanca always makes me cry as well.
Is there a connection?