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YouGov: Labour loses just one voter in 12 from 2005

February 20th, 2010


CON 39% (39)
LAB 33% (32)
LD 17%(18)

The Tories remain stable as the Labour share grows?

If it’s Saturday it must be poll night and I’m aware of two that we could see in tomorrow’s papers and possibly a third.

First up is YouGov’s daily poll which initially is running in the Tuesday to Friday editions of the Sun and the Sunday Times stepping up to seven days a week when the election is declared.

An hour or so ago Channel 4 News reported that a new poll had the Tories back with a double digit lead without specifying the numbers or the pollster.

There’s also a poll from one of the main firms which has been commissioned by a think-tank and, I’m told, might be referred to in one of tomorrow’s papers. I’m sitting on an embargoed copy and I wondered whether it was the survey referred to by Mandy at the Warwick conference this morning. The survey was completed on Wednesday so it’s starting to get a bit old.

So the YouGov daily poll has Labour moving up a point on the last daily poll. The 33% share means that Labour has only lost one voter in twelve since the 2005 general election.

This is quite extraordinary and certainly is not supported by the detailed data of other surveys.

My guess is that in the coming days and weeks the methodologies of all the firms are going to come under close scrutiny.

Let’s see what the other polls are showing.

Mike Smithson