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Daily poll has lead down to just 2 points

February 28th, 2010


CON 37% (39)
LAB 35% (33)
LD 17%(16)

Gordon could still get his five more years

According to the News of the World the latest daily poll from YouGov has the above figures which would probably mean that Labour would end up with most seats.

This has now been confirmed by the Sunday Times itself – story here.

This is a fantastic poll for Labour who, almost unbelievably, are now only per percent down on what they were at the 2005 general election when they got 36%.

I very much share the view of Anthony Wells at UKPR who writes -” All I can say is what I always say when a poll shows sharp movement – until we see some more polls that support or contradict the further narrowing of the polls – be wary.”

The pollster has gone through massive system changes in recent weeks to prepare for this daily polling and I wonder whether some of the dramatic change might have something to do with that.

One factor, highlighted here by Flockers on Friday, is that the views of people with Labour ID’s are having to be scaled up by quite a degree in order to meet the “quota” for each poll. This is something that they have not had to do in the past to the same extent and you just wonder why that is happening now.

A real issue at the moment is that YouGov is almost the only game in town. The only polling we have seen that’s taken the temperature since last Monday has been the online firm.

The firm’s Peter Kellner will be taking part in a Q&A on PB on Tuesday afternoon.

Betting: Betfair most seats market has 6/1 still available – that might be worth a trading punt. With Ladbrokes it is 11/2.

Mike Smithson