A guest slot by Matthew Shaddick (Shadsy) Here at Ladbrokes, we’ve now had prices available for all GB constituencies for a few weeks. A first in the world of political betting. Indeed we’ve been betting on some of these contests for over a year now. What are these 632 individual markets telling us about the overall election result? We thought we’d make an attempt to predict the election from the constituency level up with all of this useful information, which…
CON 39% LAB 30% LD 22% What does this say about the Labour recovery? Harris which used to be one of the big names in British polling hasn’t done much on the political front in recent years although it made an appearance with an eve of poll survey in May 2005 which was one of the closest. According to UKPR at the last election it had the Tories bang on at 33%, Labour overstated by 2 at 38% with the…
CON 38% (38) LAB 32% (32) LD 19%(17) Only the LDs show any change Here’s the latest YouGov daily poll for tomorrow’s Sun where the fieldwork ended at 5pm this evening. Again the numbers are very stable with the bullying/ “forces of hell” narrative seemingly having no impact on the LAB-CON position. The main interest from the pollster today has been in their latest dataset which apparently points to a big change in their party ID weightings. Instead of one…
But in the national poll the gap gets smaller Below are the shares from a new PB/Angus Reid poll based on the response a 4,004 national sample base conducted last week from Tues-Fri with 1254 in the marginals. There are three segments which have been separately past voted weighted. The sole purpose of the marginals polling is to help establish whether voters are behaving differently in the key battle-grounds as three other pollsters have suggested in recent months. What’s critical…
Or is this going to linger through the campaign? After last night’s Jeff Randall interview with Alistair Darling it was obvious that the “forces of hell” comment was going to be raised at PMQs. Cameron put it well and Brown appeared to flounder. Darling sat next to Brown and the former seemed to be trying to back his boss up. In fact they were so close that at one point Cameron commented that if the two had “sat any closer…
Sky News Is this a cert for PMQs today? They are back at Westminster this week and at noon we’ll see one of the few remaining PMQs before the campaign starts. With the bullying allegations and the style of the Brown Central operation being the theme of the week the Darling comments in a Sky interview last night look like keeping the pot boiling. For the Chancellor told Jeff Randall that Downing Street’s “forces of hell” were unleashed on him…
CON 38% (39) LAB 32% (33) LD 17%(17) No change in the lead but “others” rise These numbers have come directly from Peter Kellner and show no change in the lead. The main difference on the past three polls is the increased share going to others – a trend that we saw with ICM. There will be disappointment in Tory ranks that margin is still at the same level and that bullygate appears to have had little impact apart from,…
CON SPREAD RANGES 342 – 347 (nc) Sporting Index 346 – 349.5 (+1) Betfair Line market LAB SPREAD RANGES 218 – 223 (nc) Sporting Index 213 – 218 (nc) Betfair Line market LD SPREAD RANGES 53 – 56 (nc) Sporting Index 53.5 – 54 (nc) Betfair Line market What further evidence do gamblers need? Yesterday before the two new polls came out there was a bit of speculation on one of the threads over what would happen on the commons…