Andy Cooke on the UNS - Part 1
March 3rd, 2010
Uniform National Swing – an investigation
I’ve put together a short series on UNS – what it is, what’s its track record, and what levels of distortion have occurred in recent elections. This is part one of three.
My assumptions about the distortions to UNS that have accumulated and are likely (in my opinion) to rebound have been controversial to some. That’s fine – the point has always been to give you information to ponder – you make your own decisions. One comment that has been raised is the scale of the difference from UNS measured from 2005 – about 4% difference from the believed requirement of a 10.2% Conservative lead for a bare majority. This level of change from what the UNS said before the election would not be a first for the elections since 1987. Or even a second. Too many commentators quote the UNS requirement as if it’s Gospel – when one thing that we can be sure of is that after the election, in hindsight, we’ll note that the lead required was not 10.2%. I’d say it’s highly unlikely to be more, but that’s up to you to agree with – and if not, it would have to be less. Possibly considerably less. Too many people seem to use the polls and UNS like the proverbial drunk uses a lamppost – more for support than illumination.
There’s a common title for the 1992 election around these parts: “The Failure of the Polls”. That well known failure actually masked a potentially greater one – in 1992, the UNS prediction broke and has never since been fixed.
The simple Additive UNS seat prediction is truly simple. Take all constituencies from the last election. Assume the swing from then to now is uniform nationally (the name is not very imaginative …) and apply it in every constituency. If the Conservative vote has gone down by 4 points, deduct 4 points from the Conservative score in every constituency. If the Labour vote has gone up by 6 points, add 6 points to the Labour vote in every constituency. If the Lib Dem vote goes down by … you get the idea. Then look at every constituency again, and see who won. Add up the new totals and you’ve got the make up of the next House of Commons. Done.
There are plenty of complaints about UNS. It’s an oversimplification – the swing isn’t uniform nationally. It’s mathematically illogical in some circumstances – if the Tory vote was 5% in your constituency and it has dropped 6% since the last election, how many votes do they get this time? It’s psychologically irrational – would the Tories really put on the same 7% of votes in Glasgow Central, Bootle, Huntingdon, Croydon Central and Harlow? Surely safe seats, no-hope seats and marginals would have hugely different swings? But it’s been held up as the standard because it’s deemed to be a fairly good stab. A decent approximation, for all its flaws. That’s fine – but if you’re going to risk your hard-earned cash, you need to be aware of its track record.
There have been two major problems with forecasting the seat totals for elections: reliability of opinion poll data and reliability of the method used to convert that data into seats. The opinion poll issue has been addressed here frequently. Mike’s Golden Rule of polling – the poll that’s worst for Labour is usually the closest to the real result – is well known. There’s a reason he’s taken that stance – in the past, the Labour position relative to the Tories has almost always been overstated. Of course the pollsters are aware of this and have repeatedly investigated the problem and put into place more and more sophisticated models to overcome this – but the average of polls has still always overstated the Labour position relative to the Conservatives. In 1997 it was about as bad as 1992, in 2001 it was very bad still, in 2005, rather good. All polling companies got within the MoE of the target, and one got it spot on. However, it still seems likely that there was a residual bias – the putative MoE errors all occurred in one direction only – that of overstating the Labour position relative to the Conservatives.
The pollsters will know this as well, and will be working again to overcome it. But will their models – fashioned in an era of Labour popularity – work when the swing may be strongly against Labour? Or will we find that they have solved the problem? The inaccuracy of the average eve-of-election poll from 1992 onwards has masked the repeated failures of UNS – until 2005.
I set up a simple UNS spreadsheet to have a look at what UNS said should have happened at each election – from 1987 to 2005. What I found was that in 1987, it was great. From 1992 to 2005, it didn’t work. The requirements needed for a Tory majority (for example) were up to 4.3% off from what UNS said they should have been before the election. The advantage has swung from slightly in the Conservatives’ favour to extraordinarily advantageous for Labour – and slightly back again.
Some of the asymmetry has been because the Lib Dems have won most of their seats from the Conservatives, but following 2005, that asymmetry is starting to be addressed. Nevertheless, relying on UNS before an election would be unwise. Use it as a (very rough) guide, certainly – but be aware that the requirements always change in hindsight. Once the election has been fought, we can say “actually, they needed a lead of this much”. Since UNS’s last success in 1987, the Conservative lead required for a majority has been different in hindsight by 2% to 4.3% from the position claimed by UNS before the election. Today, UNS claims it’s 10.2%. What will it say was actually the case when the election has been fought?
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First.
Andy.
Surely the ant Labour tactical voting over Iraq in 2005 is distorting this, unless you are predicting that none of that will unwind.
Reposting FPT, as this is now almost on topic…
I guess my biggest concern with Andy Cooke’s approach is that it assumes that you’ve got a pendulum moving in one direction at a time, with divergence from UNS going:
pro-Labour -> pro-Labour -> anti-Labour -> guess-what-comes-next…
But I’m wondering if rather than being a pure unwind of 1997, 2010 is going to be a combination of 1997 (pro-Labour) and 2005 (anti-Labour) unwinding. This is particularly obvious now that the polling is getting closer, because Labour’s scores just doesn’t make sense unless they get a bunch of voters they didn’t get in 2005. (Like Mike says, Labour can’t have retained all but 1 voter in 12 or whatever from last time.)
That makes figuring out the dynamics of who’s changing sides a lot trickier. Just based on the swings, it could be that Labour lost the key voters they need to beat UNS in 2005, but Brown’s about to get them back, so he’ll beat UNS this time… In theory it should be possible to work out who Brown is gaining and who he’s losing, and where these people live. But that would require a lot of current polling data and some very complex analysis. It’s not something you could figure out with just a spreadsheet and some common sense.
Sorry to O/T so soon but with Michael Foot’s passing are there any survivors of the 1945 Parliament left?
FPT. 626.
Failure to invest in infrastructure.
Disdain for success.
Prioritisation of Medicine, Law and Banking over Trade and Business.
Disintegration of national identity and pride in ourselves.
Atrocious middle-management.
Low productivity.
Self-cripling welfare state.
Rigid class system - my accent gives me a massive advantage in England (even I’m conscious of that as a staunch rightwinger) and no matter what background the people I encounter are from I can almost notice them deferring to it - how ridiculous is that?
FPT and thoroughly endorsed.
Michael Foot’s speech to the House of Commons after the invasion of the Falklands was one of the finest I have ever heard anywhere. I remember listening to it as an 18 year old. It was electrifying. I don’t know if it is available online to hear, but if it is I would recommend it as a speech from a very different Parliamentary era.
http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/commons/1982/apr/03/falkland-islands
by Southam Observer March 3rd, 2010 at 1:40 pm
4. Was Dennis Healy elected in 1945? If so, he is still around. I was taught by his daughter. Shehad eyebrows just like her Dad’s.
2 tim - Was it anti-Labour tactical voting, or national Labour to LibDem switching (perhaps concentrated in certain types of seat)?
If the latter, it’s presumably already factored into the polls.
6. It ended to cheers from the whole House:
We are paramountly concerned, like, I am sure, the bulk of the House—I am sure that the country is also concerned—about what we can do to protect those who rightly and naturally look to us for protection. So far, they have been betrayed. The responsibility for the betrayal rests with the Government. The Government must now prove by deeds—they will never be able to do it by words—that they are not responsible for the betrayal and cannot be faced with that charge. That is the charge, I believe, that lies against them. Even though the position and the circumstances of the people who live in the Falkland Islands are uppermost in our minds—it would be outrageous if that were not the case—there is the longer-term interest to ensure that foul and brutal aggression does not succeed in our world. If it does, there will be a danger not merely to the Falkland Islands, but to people all over this dangerous planet.
Just come on to this thread, and the video commercial was for UPS.
The tag was ‘Brown bailout’.
(UPS is know colloquially as ‘brown’ here due to the colour of its trucks and uniforms).
9. That part of his speech is acted out in The Falklands Play.
The notion of ’swing’ places too much emphasis on people changing sides and not enough on one side being fired up and the other being too dejected to get out the vote. It’s perfectly possible to have a change in government with hardly any voters ‘changing sides’. I’d be interested to know how the ‘certainty to vote’ polling figures actually panned out in the subsequent GE because all voting intention predictions hang by this particular thread.
7. Remember: colour of the eyebrows are the same as…
3. I think there’s a lot of sense in that.
But common sense would suggest that Brown appeals to core voters and not middle Englanders and its the later who will decide the election.
It’s interesting that according to Rawnsley, polls suggesting Gordon would get a massive majorty in Oct/Nov 07 under UNS were translating into much smaller majorities in private polling because large parts of England just didn’t like Gordon, even when he was popular.
7 Healey is still around - 93 this year, but he was not elected in 1945 - first elected in 1952 at a byelection. Others will know if there are any 1945 survivors left, but since MPs were generally much older at that time it seems doubtful.
7. No, he was first elected in a by election in 1952.
7 - Healey wasn’t elected until 1952.
4.Healey was elected in 1952. Good old Wiki…….
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Denis_Healey#Member_of_Parliament_and_in_government
I have a vague inkling Healey was elected in 1952
15/16/17/18 - Echo… echo… echo… echo…
Gordon Brown - “Michael Foot was a unifier”. Erm the only Labour leader to preside over a party split.
19 - 1953 you say? Okay, I’ll remember that
21. Ramsay MacDonald?
9. SO - Foot must have been appalled when Thatcher did precisely what was asked of her in that speech. What a piss*r.
23 - Ok I omitted in modern times.
21 - Oddly, that isn’t an inaccurate remark though. With hindsight, I’m not sure anything would have united Labour in 1980. Foot tried to do it by being the man of the Left who wanted an accommodation with the Right rather than to crush them. In the end, he couldn’t hold the line and damaged himself trying, but unifying was certainly his instinct unlike most of those around him.
8 - Some of both. Seats where Tories voted Lib Dem as a tactical vote included Withington, Cambridge Hornsey & Wood Green.
Tories for Galloway in Bethnal Green was a remarkable but underreported bacillus.
24. “What a piss*r.”
Only other time I’ve ever heard that phrase used was in Airplane.
SeanT My 18 year old niece, and her mum (my sister) just came around for a quick glass of wine - she is in London for her Uni interviews.
I showed her my latest prized possession - a piece of Pol Pot’s Patio, which I stole when I made it to the dictator’s remote jungle lair in Anglong Veng, in Cambodia, about a month ago.
She said: “Who’s Pol Pot?”
FFS. Is it me, or is that a bit sad? She is well educated. How can she not know who Pol Pot is? Or is it just a girl thing?
It’s one of those hideous things that suddenly makes you realise that you’re getting old / middle aged. For some reason Pol Pot hasn’t had as much publicity in the last 20 years as, say, Adolf Hitler, so it is at least conceivable that some young people might not have gathered who he was.
I had a similar experience a few years ago when I was discussing things about radio on another forum. After Bill Buckley had been working for a while on LBC radio, someone excitedly posted a message with a link to a photo of BB, and said that it was interesting to find out what he looked like. I was genuinely puzzled and I replied that surely it was the same Bill Buckley who had been very famous in the 1980s as one of the presenters on “That’s Life” (therefore everybody knew what he looked like already). It took a few moments for me to register that the other person (only about 10 years younger than me) had genuinely not been aware of him.
I think I may call the 2nd volume of my memoirs: “A Piece of Pol Pot’s Patio”. I just like the alliteration.
What’s the first volume called?
Chris (from Bethesda) nobody prevents 2 or more British parties to annouce a coalition BEFORE elections, as they do, for example in Italy or in Sweden.
But the fact is that they don’t.
They would do, if we had PR. It would become one of the norms of a PR system.
336. Congratulations, [hypocracy] is the seventh version of the spelling of the word: H-Y-P-O-C-R-I-S-Y I’ve seen in the last 72 hours.
My favourite spelling of that word is “hippocracy” - government by hippopotamuses.
608. Random Jaruzelski’s actions almost certainly saved Poland from the sort of Soviet invasion that Czechoslovakia.
That is what Poland (and others) were probably meant to think. In reality, the USSR had already decided at an early stage that it would not invade Poland in any case, because it would have stretched Soviet forces too much while they were still involved in Afghanistan, and it would have been too much of an effort to cope with hostile Polish public opinion. [source: "Revolution 1989" by Victor Sebestyen]
http://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/9924999289
27. As a Tory in Cambridge at the last election, I thought seriously about voting Lib Dem tactically, though not over the war, but in the end I couldnt bring myself to do it and voted Tory as always.
24 - She took us to war knowing she had cross-party backing. Foot got a lot of stick for his support of her. But he was right.
I think Paul Waugh is right and Labour will see a poll boost following Michael Foot’s death.
29, surely government by horses? Maybe Caligula was a hippocrat
Isn’t Micheal Foot the last Labour leader the Labour party has had? Since then Labour just have been about popularity not principles.
Healey was just interviewed on Radio5, not shy about pointing out his differences with Foot on UND, but still friends after all they went through.
United against Benns attempts to destroy the Labour Party I should think.
If its still available Healey’s Desert Island Discs appearance last year is a great listen.
Michael Foot - I’m much saddened by the passing of a distinguished man of the 20th century. A man for whom principle, decency, personal and political honesty were part of his very being.
I disagreed with almost all of Michael’s politics but there is little doubt that this outstanding Parliamentarian was one of the true big beasts of the jungle - his wonderful roar is now silenced and the nation is a wee bit poorer for that.
RIP - A great Britain.
30 - “Cd Foot’s death boost Labour’s core vote turnout?”
I think it will reduce Labour’s core vote turnout by one.
On topic, I believe that the party vote shares this time around will be comparable to 1992. Therefore, should we not take 1992 as the starting point and look at changes from then (in terms of swing and number of seats). The extrapolation will be less and all of the intervening tactical wind/unwind ignored, which should (!) lead to greater accuracy. Yes, boundaries have changed, as have demographics, but wouldn’t it be reasonable to say that if the vote share in 2010 matches that in 1992, the Tories should get a small majority?
26 Correct. The gang of four had alreday decided to leave Labour before Foot was elected. It was widely believed at the time that some of the putative SDP MPs voted for Foot as leader because they believed it would make a split easier to achieve and increase the political attractiveness of the new party.
I saw Michael Foot in 2004 at Paul Foot’s funeral. He was already very frail then, and if anything I’m surprised he managed to survive as long as he did. He must have been more fit and robust on the inside (heart, circulation) than he appeared on the outside.
30 - Wibbler.
Perhaps thats right, certainly it may increase the people who say they are certain to vote..
Labour lead in March anyone?
In addition, before any of the Tories point it out there’s already a “What about Foots donkey jacket” “Yes he valued substance over appearance” meme being developed by certain unscrupulous spinners.
I have voted Liberal Democrat in 3 elections in a row but will vote Conservative in this one because I’m scared by Gordon Brown’s financial incompetency. I mean how can you trust a man who raided the elderly’s pension funds and sold gold at a 20 year low just to fund some of Labour’s expensive pet projects.
re 33; Wibbler, isn’t it possible it could also remind people of the dire days of old Labour (decent chap though Foot was) and put off middle-class voters?
Also isn’t the Labour core vote already pretty energised? I though that was a big factor in their revival in the polls.
38.
Con leading by 4 in London in poll out today
C 39
Lab 35
Lib 17
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/article-23811579-conservatives-on-course-to-gain-up-to-a-dozen-lonson-seats-research-shows.do
43 - Because the alternative plans to raid your child’s trust fund to pay for his own?
Will Comrade Foot get a state funeral ?
And will Red Square be closed during the ceremony ?
I’ll get my coat…
I doubt it was have much if any effect.
30 It might. But it could have the opposite effect when people who remember Foot’s personal integrity look at the modern Labour party and wonder what happened. I disagreed with almost everything that Foot stood for but I respected him. Now, I don’t respect many of the politicians I agree with. Sad but true.
46 - Betting tip.
Labour look good in Tooting on that poll.
4/7 on the Tory is too short
Very few people will know who Mchael Foot is, even less will have any other reaction than “old man has died, sad but he had a good innings”
42 That donkey jacket has a lot to answer for. Even now politicians are scared to appear in public in anything resembling casual dress for fear of being compared to it. The only person in my constituency who wears a suit and tie to weekend events is the MP!
51. Is Citizen Brown still standing for the Tooting Popular Front in Tooting ?
http://i.thisislondon.co.uk/i/pix/2009/02/beret_415×275.jpg
53 - It was probably a more expensive coat than it looked.
Another great elder statesman.
William Hague struggled to brush off repeated attacks from Harriet Harman about Tory donor Michael Ashcroft’s tax status in a rowdy PMQs today.
The shadow foreign secretary has been embarrassed by letters published by the Guardian newspaper showing that he promised to ensure Lord Ashcroft would become resident in Britain for tax purposes.
http://www.politics.co.uk/news/legal-and-constitutional/ashcroft-row-forces-hague-on-to-defensive-$1363437.htm
55. And the Queen Mum liked it!
42 tim, good to see you’ve kept your sense of humour on this dark day. Using the word ‘unscrupulous’ to describe the actions of others. Ho ho.
I noticed that a lot of people are not registered to vote and in particular in the younger age brackets . Are the unregistered voters more likely to be labour inclined and if so how to pollsters deal wiht this . If you ask someone whether they are registered they are likely to say they are even if they are not because they feel somewhat guilty about it and feel they should be registered
Mrs Speaker catches the Brownite mood on twitter..
” Michael Foot’s death has prompted me to donate to Labour GE campaign. Will others do the same? http://bit.ly/csztrH #labourwin #pleaseRT “
46. Re London polls, the table here on those leading up to the last mayoral election is interesting. An astonishingly bad performance by MORI, which makes you wonder how they continue to attract any interest at all as a pollster.
I also noticed the MRUK poll..also wrong. I wonder if they will be entering the field again?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/London_mayoral_election,_2008
42 - ‘“What about Foots donkey jacket”’
Apparently the ‘donkey jacket’ was an urban legend. It was actually an expensive coat, and its quality was praised by the Queen Mother.
“Since UNS’s last success in 1987, the Conservative lead required for a majority has been different in hindsight by 2% to 4.3% from the position claimed by UNS before the election. Today, UNS claims it’s 10.2%. What will it say was actually the case when the election has been fought?”
Am I right in thinking that the Andy Cooke analysis predicts 6% difference from the UNS?
60: Do you think Bercow hides his face in his hands everytime she tweets?
56 tim ..letters published by the Guardian newspaper showing that he promised to ensure Lord Ashcroft would become resident in Britain for tax purposes.
He did become resident in Britain for tax purposes.
first visit by a UK head of state to ROI for a century
http://www.independent.ie/national-news/queen-elizabeth-to-make-first-visit-to-irish-republic-2087351.html
56, haha, bollocks. Hague slaughtered Harman.
60 - He isn’t even cold and they are doing this. Are there no depths they will not plumb?
Foot does the opposite for me, reminds me of why Labour give me the willies. And it will many of my generation who remember his performances.
That is not to condemn the man, he was amiable in person and very considerate, but his politics were socialist central control with the unions dominant. A syndicalist of the old school. A patriot who would have left us exposed to the soviet fascists. A man undisturbed by the decline in national wealth or competitiveness because the remedy did not fit his dogma.
64 - No worries for Bercow, Farage has trashed himself very adeptly recently.
65 - Any idea when Willie is doing an interview?
Nick Robinson has said they are going to come out fighting on the Ashcroft affair.
68. Even ramping using a dead leader is better than trying to ramp using Brown…
68, what else would you expect from the Yellow Crabs Propaganda Service?
70, Robinson is a plank. You might as well listen to Bedpans.
60 The Bercow Tweet is pretty tasteless. Mr Foot is reported to have died at 7AM, and 7.5 hours later Labour are milking his demise for financial gain.
The least they could do is afford his passing some dignity.
Guido has more on the Donkey Jacket
http://order-order.com/2010/03/03/the-donkey-jacket-remembered/
It was almost certainly an expensive Loden coat
http://www.rowlandsclothing.co.uk/product-Navy-Loden-Jacket-M2203.htm
70 tim, Hague did, and utterly demolished the shrieking Hattie Harperson.
47. Tim it is the BBC Robert Peston who point’s out the damage Gordon Brown has done in his book “Who runs Britain? ” on pg 226 he states ” pension-fund investment income fell fro £7.1bn in 1996-97 to £3.3bn in 2001-02. His parent were stanch Labour supporters.
He also says in his book while Major helped reduce the rich poor divide Blair and Brown have increased it is called the Gini coefficient and is a major of the rich poor divide.
I really get annoyed with Labour supporters who don’t even realize that their party is not the party of old and does not care for the poor like they used to.
60. One wonders how proud Michael Foot was of the Labour Party that exists today. The Labour Party of his day was very different to that of 2009, so it seems odd that news of his death would prompt one to give money to today’s incarnation.
For just as many as those which will get all weepy-eyed over ‘the red flag’, they’ll be just as many which will look back on the 80s, think of labour, and shudder.
Can we expect a weeping Sarah Brown to appear shortly in black veil on the steps of Number 10?
69 Witan - agreed. I was only a teenager then but vividly recall watching the telly and wondering who on Earth would vote for Foot’s Labour?
It was the most stunning manifesto laundry list - virtually every mainstream political no-no in one. The suicide note analogy was spot on.
I also remember seeing him at the Cenotaph and it looked like a donkey jacket to me [given they were de rigeur lefty wear then too just didn't help].
txt just received..
“News at 10 will be replaced by a special edition of One Foot in the Grave”
70 tim
http://erexi.com/labour-billionaire-donor%E2%80%99s-pension-steel/
tim while you are waiting here’s a few notes on Lord Paul.
The Labour party and Gordon Brown is taking money directly from the workers it is alleged.
A few months ago I posted a link to a clever-clogs website which calculated that a 96-year-old man (i.e. Michael Foot) had a 22% chance of living to 100. As it happens, it was only a few days ago that I looked again and it said that the probablity of a man aged 96.6 living to 100 was 28%.
78 - it’s funny how that particular period is looked upon with a bit of nostalgia by some of my more left-wing friends.
Then again, the Labour party meant something in those days.
76 - The GINI coefficient, and the tragedy of the Thatcher years is here.
http://image.guardian.co.uk/sys-files/Guardian/documents/2009/03/13/inequality.pdf
84 AD
it was when they were all voting to free Zimbabwe and Bob Mugabe at the Students’ Union.
Whatever one’s politics,I pay tribute to Michael Foot as a principled,decent gentleman-dare I say that the tapestry of our politics is just a little poorer for his passing?
RIP Michael Foot July 1913-March 2010
82 - All money originates with the workers didn’t you know?
Tory policy is from each according to their means to the Osbornes according to their needs.
84: The left is always happier opposing things and being in opposition. When they become the establishment they can’t do that, and actually have to take some responsibility. Not they do, just screw it up until someone else sorts it out.
76 ‘I really get annoyed with Labour supporters who don’t even realize that their party is not the party of old and does not care for the poor like they used to.’
I wouldn’t waste your time. Judging from the impression tim likes to give in his posts, he’s wealthy enough to be insulated from the problems of the poor and the elderly. To him, it’s all just a game.
88. of all the tims you seem to be the one with the worst spelling and grammar.
What time is the real one back from lunch ?
Michael Foot? RIP.
He may have been a great Parliamentarian but he was a hopeless politician : if he had become PM, Gordon Brown would appear a genius by comparison.
86 - not to mention making places like Lambeth a nuclear free zone. Which in the period that brought us the TV programme “Threads” seemed quite a good idea on the surface of it
WRT to Foot’s passing having an effect on people, it will probably make the public remember (albeit briefly) when politics wasn’t so reliant on spin and constant ramping up of even the most minor of happenings.
What the result of that will be is anyone’s guess.
85 tim
maybe I missed it but with all the money that has been spent and the twaddle from old Son of the Manse, wasn’t the point of 13 years of Labour to have reversed this trend rather than simply slow it down ?
One place of course where Michael Foot will be especially remembered is Blaenau Gwent, successor to his old Ebbw Vale constituency, and a place where differences within Labour have given rise to ‘People`s Voice’ and an independent old-Labour-style MP.
Who is the Michael Foot and who is the Denis Healey in the current cru ?
Labour made the wrong choice then. Will they make it again ?
Some hateful comments from the Tories on here. Same old,same old.
nickc knows his onions. As early as 1975 and maybe earlier than that, there were darm mutterings about a Labour-Liberal alliance under the leadership of Roy Jenkins.
tim when will Brown make a statement on Lord Paul and his rapacious behaviour?
Can Brown assure us that there was no link between Paul’s appointment to the Privy Council and the number of Brown’s books he bought, the money he gave to Brown’s leadership campaign and donations to the Labour party.
Can Brown cut the FOI request on this short and make a statement and release the documents which recommended Paul to HMQ for appointment to the Privy Council?
If not can Brown assure us he will ensure there is no unnecessary delay in fulfilling the FOI request on Lord Paul made yesterday to the Ministry of Justice?
Can Brown assure us that this relationship with Lord Paul is not being misused for business purposes?
Brown really must make a clean breast of this now.
90 Perhaps someone would care to explain what proposals the Tories have to assist the poor and reduce inequality in our society should they be elected in May?
93: Back in the day when there actually was a much clearer choice in British politics.
90. It seems all the political parties are wrapped in a metropolitan elite safety blanket. The genuine democratisation of the Conservative Party away from the upper classes, which Maggie represented, and John Major cemented as a party of the middle classes, a tradition followed by Hague, IDS and Howard has now gone full circle.
It is close to not being a party i want to be associated with. Good job we have a pretty darn fine local conservative candidate, and they will be getting my support.
96 URW
I await the Left’s response when Thatcher goes, then we’ll see what nasty looks like.
Do we get a Ben Elton obituary special ?
The only way you will ever get this so called GINI coefficient down would be to massively raise taxes on the well off. This would work but not in the way anticipated as those with the wealth would leave, investment would collapse and those left would become poorer so reducing said coefficient.
Investment has already collapsed, taxes go to 50% soon and companies are already bailing out of the UK. Those of us who work for large multi national firms are already seeing this…… only the sheltered public sector seem to fail to realise what is happening.
98 nickc - Come on, that is too easy!
Michael Gove’s Swedish schools initiative for a starter. Education - Labour’s greatest failure other than wrecking the economy - is the key to reducing inequality.
98
Didnt someone post recently figures showing that more people were in poverty since 1997.
98: All there nickc
http://www.conservatives.com/Policy/Where_we_stand/Jobs_and_Welfare.aspx
76 But Peston never says that stuff on the telly. He is weak.
98. How about slashing a marginal tax rate of 70% for people on the lowest incomes. In terms of inequality, hopefully they will repeal or abandon mad hatties equalities bill, that would be a start.
76 - PaulB
Quite right..
As a large share of the Labour vote come from the working class, it is in their interests to make as many people as possible working class.
Actually letting people asprire and climb the social ladder would be detrimental as it may mean that they start voting Tory.
98 Quasimarkets.
*** Paddy Power ***
makes Cameron as favourite in the TV debates.
TV Debate Betting
Who will win the most TV debates?
10/11 Cameron
5/4 Brown
6/1 Clegg
12/1 Three way tie
—> ICM Results
Who will win the first TV debate? (ITV on Domestic affairs)
4/5 Cameron
13/8 Brown
7/2 Clegg
First to noticeably perspire?
11/10 Clegg
6/4 Cameron
3/1 Brown
Which rule will be broken first?
11/8 Applauding
7/4 Booing
4/1 Heckling
9/2 Cheering
50/1 Streaking
Which TV debate will have the highest TV audience?
4/6 BBC
9/4 ITV
7/2 SKY
25/1 Any party leader to swear during the TV debates
5/1 Any party leader not to shake hands with another at the end of a debate
h/t http://www.liveoddsandscores.com/news/press-releases/425860/cameron-tipped-to-win-on-camera
97. Somehow Labour being in hock to asset strippers seems very appropriate.
110. How do they decide who “wins”?
I wonder if Harriet Harman is under sedation somewhere in the Palace of Westminster. William Hague is cruel to PC-feminists who have no understanding of deficits, debt, and gilts. What a car crash for her.
101 Alanbrooke. Fairish comment. In one sense you are right- there will be horrible comments.
There is however a world of difference between Margaret Thatcher and Michael Foot. The former influenced the course of so many lives, for better for worse, whilst the latter is just a footnote in history. Yes !
112 - How do they decide who “wins”?
I thought exactly the same thing – seems entirely arbitrary unless they introduce arm-wrestling for the finale.
115: Don’t they have a balanced ‘independent’ panel?
112 - If it is based on press reaction, don’t throw your money on Clegg even though the price looks generous. He’ll be ignored by at least 2/3 of the papers (and maybe all of them).
112/115. I hope Gabble isn’t employed by Paddy Power.
114 URW
I suspect Thatcher would actually see the bile directed at her as proof of how she changed the UK and a back-handed compliment.
Though I got to say the Sally Bercrow thing is just plain sick.
does anyone know where we can watch pmqs?
110 - Bound to be applause at times.
103 Forgive me if I’m wrong - I’m not as close to policy etc as most people on here - but I thought I had read recently that the Swedes were very concerned that their new education system had caused standards to drop and that there was considerable wastage of resources due to many schools having unfilled places?
116. There is no such thing as an “independent” panel. Sounds like a gimmick by Paddy Power.
113 It was one of Hattie’s finest half hours
It’s been a long time since I repeatedly LOL during PMQs - Hague was magnificently funny.
110. 50-1 on streaking? I’ll put £1k down and split the profit with anyone prepared to do it. Seems reasonable.
122. Yes, I fail to understand the fuss about Gove’s reforms. Forget choice, people just want a good school.
PMQ’s was a disgrce today and showed the torys at there braying worse!! wee willie hague was pathetic; he brought harriets husband into politics without good reason and refused to answer a single question! teh tories still have many unanswered questions about Lord Archer; who is this nomdomicile he’s been involved with and is she the same as max mosely;s? and how much does he urn from his busines in Belsize Park? we need to know u tories; and we will not rest ’til we do know!!!
I can’t access PaddyPower’s website now; but I was under the impression from the link I got that from that the winner would be decided via the results of ICM polling.
127 Oh dear - I do hope that’s a spoof
Brian Dead - are you sure you spelled your screen name correctly?
127 - “how much does he urn from his busines in Belsize Park”
the word is ‘earn’ you t1t.
127: Better spoof than a lot of others here.
127 Can’t wait for the starting pistol of the campaign to fire-and Mandelosn as Labour campaign co-ordinator rip into the Tories like a rabid pitbull!
127 Brian Dead
Can’t you ask susanna(h?) to come back? She was brilliant.
127. Calm down old chap. Take a lie down and then come back and try and write something coherent and preferably without text speak. Also, you might want to ask about Lord Ashcroft rather than Lord Archer.
122 nickc - There was an article to that effect, but IIRC in The Indy, and quoting union officials. So you might not want to take it as entirely authoritative!
The main point, though, is that (quite remarkably) it is the Conservatives who are making education for the less privileged a flagship policy. Labour have absolutely no policies whatsoever, as far as I can see. They don’t even seem to think it is important to address the underlying issue; instead, they focus on fiddling university entrance standards. The LibDems (like the Conservatives) do have a policy of directing funds to less-privileged pupils.
So if you are trying to say that the Conservative policies won’t work, you might be right or you might be wrong; time weill tell, if the Conservative win. But what is undeniable is that the Conservative Party is putting a very high emphasis on addressing inequalities.
126. “people just want a good school”
For the love of god, do you think anyone wants anything else? Its the means to achieve good schools, its the mechanism you use to improve peoples educations. Competition isnt just to allow people choice, its that their exercise of choice forces up standards.
126 Yes that is my view. I also think it’s silly of the Tories to try to say that education is failing - of course there is always room for improvement, but it’s way better then it was in 1997 (and I can say that from personal experience as a parent whose children started school in 1998 and will still be there until about 2015).
132 - I want to see Mandelsons tears when New Labour is a festering corpse after the election fit only to be picked over by the vultures of history.
‘Brian’ is an irregular spoof contributor.
I know it’s hard to tell the difference between the spoofs and serious (sic) posters, but…
Is http://www.paddypower.com down?
137. I think the Tories are trying to say that education could be so much better if schools were set free from the dead hand of the LEAs. No one can deny that the fabric and facilities in schools have increased markedly and commendably under Labour, the question is whether standards have improved as much as have the facilities or whether the increase in standards provides good value for money for the sums ploughed into education.
139. He’s terrific.
Sad to see Martin Day has gone native over on Guido - I struggle to get through the day without a regular fix of LD-N@zi-flatulence imagary..
137: In many ways of course its true. But in others not. Why does business still go one about the lack of basic skills which school leaves have (in increasing numbers).
Why are we slipping down international league tables?
The newscycle does seem to have been derailed so far this week - Gordon gives big speech about crime and Ashcroft goes public - thus wiping it out, then Labour go for Ashcroft and John Venables goes back to jail - which is of much more popular interest and now Labour attempt to resurrect Ashcroft and Foot dies…
Their news grid must be getting very frustrated - particularly after Hattie’s plane crash on PMQs.
Andy,
I will try and catch up on the entire thread later but what a superb piece of research by you, very impressive and I look forward to reading the next two as much as I did you recent threads on swings etc. If only Rod Crosby would write a piece which is so clear and understandable, we might understand better his swingback theory and give it reasonable consideration.
135 But what I fail to see is how changing the structure of education will address inequality. And nor do I think there are thousands - or even hundreds - of parents out there champing at the bit to get involved in running schools. Most parents are far too busy earning a living, looking after the kids and perhaps also their own elderly parents - they want someone else to give them good schools, not do it themselves. The only people who are really keen to set up schools are often slightly dubious religious groups that are far from ideal as education providers.
137 nickc
unfortunately your view is not upheld by PISA studies ( Programme for International Student Assessment ) run by the OECD. These show UK education declining consistently through the last decade and that the UK is producing a low literacy, low numeracy workforce for the future.
137 nickc - So, you are quite happy with a situation where a single private school gets more A grades than the entire cohort of boys who are on free school meals? And that nearly 40% of pupils eligible for free school meals do not even get a single grade C at GCSE?
You don’t think those are failures? Personally, I think they are absolutely horrific failures, which every single Labour supporter should be thoroughly ashamed of.
As for ‘choice’ - you just don’t get it, do you? Choice is a means to get better schools, not an end in itself
137 nickc - So, you are quite happy with a situation where a single private school gets more A grades than the entire cohort of boys who are on free school meals? And that nearly 40% of pupils eligible for free school meals do not even get a single grade C at GCSE?
You don’t think those are failures? Personally, I think they are absolutely horrific failures, which every single Labour supporter should be thoroughly ashamed of. You’re supposed to be the party which campaigns and works on behalf of the less privileged, aren’t you?
As for ‘choice’ - you just don’t get it, do you? Choice is a means to get better schools, not an end in itself
127
Magnificent!
Well done Brain Dead, old chap!
128 - Correct. ICM polling; bets void if no ICM poll is conducted on the topic.
96
Actually, havuing only skimmed through the last two threads I thought most of the comments from the right had been very kind about Foot - along the lines of not agreeing with his politics but accpeting he was both genuine, committed and a great Parliamentarian.
There will always be one or two who scorn but as has already been mentioned I suspect the comments about Mrs T when she goes from the left will be far more obnoxious. They have to uphold their myths after all.
137.
The fact is it was much easier for people like me to break out of a working class background and to succeed that it is now. Then, if you worked and got an education in something solid, it as as most guaranteed you left uni with very little debt and very good prospects.
Now ‘education’ is an argument the Labour Party wants to win. It’s not about delivering an educated successful workforce.
110.TV Debate Betting
So if I could slip something into Nick Clegg’s drink before he went on, causing him to feel very hot, so he sweats, tears his clothes off and runs around the set swearing at the other two candidates. While on SKY TV and it lasts long enough for everyone in the country to get wind of it and turn over.
I would make a fortune on an accumulated bet! I’m off down the bookies!!
146: Becuase one of the biggest causes of inequality is poor education, and improving it means those children will have better life chances and improve society as a whole.
PMQs… http://bit.ly/9CsJmw
Bang on topic:
Andy Cooke argues well. UNS is a joke but I knew that ! AC repeats too many talismanic beliefs in order to further his argument.
UNS and Wells’n Baxter are not gods. Nor is Mike Smithson !
If you are looking for a god; look no further.
URW
137
Not wishing to be overly pedantic, but with respect, if your kids started school in 1998, how can you possibly know if they are better now than they were in 1997?
Richard Nabavi
Andrew Neil claimed Sweden was falling far behind the UK since Free Schools we’re introduced
Gove seemed floored
Is it true?
Frank Booth: Yes, I fail to understand the fuss about Gove’s reforms. Forget choice, people just want a good school.
Like many lefties you prefer state monopolies. So did the Soviet Union. Why would the residents of Stafford want any alternative to their local state hospital.
Paddy Power are also offering odds on some other nice little debate specials:
Highest audience - BBC 4/6, ITV 9/4, Sky 7/2. ITV seems quite a good bet there as the first one so it has novelty value.
Any party leader to swear: 25/1. Actually seems quite good odds for a small flutter.
First to noticeably perspire: Clegg 11/10, Cameron 6/4, Brown 3/1. Possibly Cameron here as he is surprisingly well padded.
Also, any party leader NOT to shake hands with another at the end of a debate: 5/1. Terrible value - avoid.
159 tim
still running away from why 13 years of redistribution haven’t reversed the GINI coeiificent I see.
Maybe Labour have created too many MP millionaires while pushing the poor on to benefit dependency ?
146. I love the way that those on the Left think they “know” exactly what everyone wants and to make their choices for them.
As it happens, nickc, you couldn’t be more wrong. There are thousands upon thousands of parents who’d love to get more involved with structuring their children’s education - they just don’t have the opportunity.
161: We need a full list of what are ’swear words’ and what arn’t though.
120 notme
http://news.bbc.co.uk/democracylive/hi/house_of_commons/newsid_8537000/8537496.stm
159 tim - I’ve no idea. Was he going on the basis of the Indy article?
In any case, what would it prove? You’d have to look at the whole area including changes in funding during the corresponding period to be able to isolate one factor.
But my main gripe is the 100% negativity of Labour. OK, if they’ve got a better than Gove’s, let’s hear it. Certainly something needs to be done about those shameful results. Labour’s record is abysmal, especially given the massive increases in expenditure. It is particularly the least privileged who are losing out.
164. Your starting to sound like Hilton
98.
Yadayadayadayada….
Stop being lazty and do some research yourself. Try here:
http://www.conservatives.com/Policy.aspx
David Cameron to be interviewed by Trevor McDonald this week
Sir Trevor McDonald meets David Cameron on ITV1.
In an ITV1 special, Sir Trevor McDonald goes behind the scenes with David Cameron to find out about the public and private man who hopes to become the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom.
The one-hour programme, ‘Trevor McDonald meets David Cameron’, will be filmed over the coming days and will be broadcast at 10.15pm on Sunday March 14th. The programme is produced by ITV Studios.
Sir Trevor McDonald said: “At such a fascinating time, I’m delighted to be able to give viewers a unique glimpse into the life of the man who hopes to lead the next Government”
159. No.
Harman was dreadful today and is so annoying a poor politician who would have had a little creditablity if she answered hagues question relating to brother Jack getting a PLP Seat in Birmingham.
No wonder she wants equality she is is so second rate.
Re TV debate audiences.
Note that each debate will be on more than one channel. Each channel will make its debate available to all others live except the ITV debate is only available recorded. In practice this means the following is likely:
ITV deabte - live on ITV, recorded on BBC and Sky
Sky debate - live on Sky and possibly live on BBC, recorded on ITV
BBC debate - live on BBC and Sky, recorded on ITV
For certain ITV will choose not to simulcast an event live on BBC.
The unknown is whether BBC choose to show the Sky debate live. I would say 50:50 call.
LyndaWalthoMP
Great PMQs today. Go Harriet!
At least with Michael Foot you knew what you were getting. For an old leftie he was absolutely right over the Falklands. He made some beautifully withering speeches. I remember one were he ridiculed ‘little’ David Steel, and how he feared for him, walking into the voting lobby with Mrs T, as the Libs pulled the plug on the 1979 Labour government. Above all it was obvious what you were getting with Foot - which also explains why he never became PM.
Not had chance to watch PMQs yet, but just weeks before the election, when Labour have helped create gaps in tory defences, Brown goes missing from parliament? What sort of leadership is that? Surely he should have sent Harman to meet the South African President, she could then have made the point to him, that she’s grateful she’s not to be in his shoes - she only had to get one partner a seat in parliament…
161. Brown is so grossly out of condition that I would have thought he was the value bet there.
170 Ooh - that’s a good slot - a bit late but with a credible and popular news man.
Compare that to Piers Morgan…
Sorry catching up on previous threads but I refuse to let this one go
85. How dare a Tory lecture anyone on the status of the NHS. The fact a Tory even tries shows the gall of the Party which left the service on its knees by 1997. Want to know why noone trusts your torrid little Party - there’s a clue!
by BenM March 2nd, 2010 at 10:32 pm
Sir you are utterly deluded. tell that to the 1200 dead in Satfford. A
Sorry catching up on previous threads but I refuse to let this one go
85. How dare a Tory lecture anyone on the status of the NHS. The fact a Tory even tries shows the gall of the Party which left the service on its knees by 1997. Want to know why noone trusts your torrid little Party - there’s a clue!
by BenM March 2nd, 2010 at 10:32 pm
Sir you are utterly deluded. tell that to the 1200 dead in Satfford. A
174. The sad thing about that tweet is first its delusional, Harriet got wiped by Hague and second that the exchanges and behaviour of all sides of the House was pretty despicable and it was politics and the House at its worst.
180. I disagree, it was the house at its best.
152. “There will always be one or two who scorn but as has already been mentioned I suspect the comments about Mrs T when she goes from the left will be far more obnoxious. They have to uphold their myths after all.”
If Michael Foot had been Prime Minister for eleven and a half years and had been given the chance to put his principles into practice, I suspect the Right would be being somewhat less forgiving today as well. It’s scarcely an exact comparison.
182. We’d all have been shot by now.
R5 devoting the WHOLE daytime schedule to covering Gordon at Chilcott - 0900-1800.
No pressure then
Just watched PMQ’s Hattie was abysmal as we have come to expect but frankly the Speaker was horrifying. There was a point where he told Hattie off for straying from government responsibility and she carried blithely on without being shut up by Bercow. The Speaker couldn’t keep control and that proves that he was the wrong choice. The House was not at its best today but Hattie got crucified, quite rightly. Also what on God’s green earth was Vince Cable thinking?
Harman must have been bad…
Hague gives Hattie a PMQs kicking
Lloyd Evans
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/5813533/hague-gives-hattie-a-pmqs-kicking.thtml
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/5813533/hague-gives-hattie-a-pmqs-kicking.thtml
182 http://blogs.wsj.com/iainmartin/2010/03/03/will-the-left-be-generous-on-passing-of-thatcher
http://blogs.wsj.com/iainmartin/2010/03/03/will-the-left-be-generous-on-passing-of-thatcher/?mod=rss_WSJBlog
Sky Breaking News: Head of Russian Olympic Commitee has resigned, following the teams poor performance in Vancouver. Apparently the cuts and bruises he’s covered in were entirely coincidental, the gag he’s wearing is a fashion statement in that part of Russia.
185. Vince played it badly, he sounded pathetic and toady.
186/187
188/189
Spooky…
Ok, I give up
188. And I’d point out exactly the same thing to Iain Martin, as he clearly hasn’t taken it into account. Ironically, though, there are probably some on the Right who secretly regret that Foot wasn’t elected PM in 1983 as he, unlike Thatcher, would have taken us out of Europe!
188 - I think we can all answer that question.
Here’s the Daily Politics education debate from today.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/the_daily_politics/8547441.stm
I actually think the parties aren’t too far apart hence the nitpicking.
194.No, because he would then have taken us out of NATO & no doubt into the Warsaw Pact.
178/179. Labourites are far too willing to swallow their own party’s propaganda.
The NHS was functioning “fine” in 1997. Yes, the hospitals had older buildings and waiting lists were longer but it wasn’t “on it’s knees”.
That would suggest the system was on the verge of collapse, which it wasn’t.
I do accept that the Tory government of 1979-1997 failed to reform Health and increase personal/private/public investment into it sufficiently, but that is quite another matter.
Hague can be quite amusing but not for one minute does he strike me as Prime Ministerial.
Sorry to read about the death of Michael Foot, some of us on this site are old enough to remember him when he was in his political prime in the late 50’s and 60’s. The last of the Foot family, my late Granmother used to campaign for his brother Dingle in the 1930’s here in Dundee.
188/189. No. Because the Left are the truly nasty ones.
They justify it because they think they operate on a higher moral plane.
In reality they are bastards.
196 tim
13 years of robbing pensions
13 years of stealth taxes
13 years of splurging money like there’s no tomorrow
and you still can’t achieve one of your own objectives.
why? Is it because everyone was so relaxed getting filthy rich ?
Main lead on R5 - Bulger killer, Straw won’t tell his mother reason for his return to jail.
Oh dear.
197. Chris, I’ll be kind and assume your latter suggestion was intended as the utter joke it was.
194. James why do you proudly state that your blog is “42nd best in Scotland”? If you were in the Top 10 maybe, but 42nd????
182. Rubbish.
There was no general nastiness on the Right when Atlee passed away. He was probably one of the most transformatory Labour Prime Ministers in history.
Ditto for Wilson.
199 And he isn’t running for the job either
198. I remember a Tory saying to me on election night 1997 that Labour would be back out of power in 4 years because the Tories had so starved the NHS of money for investment and training that it would be virtually unable to function within two years, and Labour would be seen as failing on their most treasured policy.
PFI and immigration may not have been the best ways to fix it, but he was certainly proved wrong.
Well done. Keep staring at Diane Abbott’s knowing eyes….
I’ve just realised it’s 25 years to the day since the end of the Miners’ strike. Is this the day for Brown to call an election?
I see it was apparently the Queen’s fault for booking a meeting with Mr Brown and Mr Zuma at the same time as PMQs (according to No10 that is). I hope they’re right.
204. Can you come onto this website without being nasty and vindicative to people James?
Quite frankly, I’m tired of your attitude. You never have a good word to say about anyone and are permenantly sarcastic and insulting to other posters.
In other words: an arsehole.
You being “you” I know you’ll try and instantly turn that back on me but why not be a mature adult for once?
Take the feedback, reappraise how you behave on here and act on it.
Hague is struggling on this now.
The Guardian has been trying for three days to get William Hague to spell out what he knew about Lord Ashcroft’s tax affairs and when he found out he was a non-dom. As Tory leader from 1997-2001, Hague lobbied hard for his peerage (see the letters between Hague, Tony Blair and the honours committee).
But so far Hague, along with other senior Tories, has refused to respond to us in any way. What we would like is if you could put our questions, below, to your local Tory MP or candidate and let us know what responses you get, or if they too get ignored.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/blog/2010/mar/03/lord-ashcroft-questions
The Times are going after him as well as are the Independent and the Lib Dems.
He either goes on TV or he runs away for a few more days.
Whichever it is, it looks bad.
183/187- From the WSJ article: “But it does make one wonder whether the left will be generous with its tributes to Margaret Thatcher when, as it must eventually, that sad day comes? You only need to ask the question to know the answer.”
When lefties are given free rein and show their true colors, their intolerant and repressive tendencies always come to the fore, ranging from rigidly enforced political correctness on up to Stalinist/Maoist mass murder of dissenters. At their core, they are neither generous nor nice people. They will give no quarter when Lady Thatcher dies, you can be sure.
210.First he blames the Americans for our woes, now the Queen, for his…tut tut tut
205. As it happens I was thrilled to be no. 42! That was a vote covering all the blogs in Scotland, not just political ones, so I think top fifty is not a bad effort at all. I was also slightly bemused to spot I was slightly ahead of Tom Harris…
208: PFI`…ie buy now, pay later.
196 tim - Blair would probably have supported Gove’s ideas, but Labour as a whole is too intertwined with the educational establishment.
Where Gove should be bolder is in allowing profit-making companies to set up schools. Maybe later.
What we do have in the UK (which Sweden doesn’t have to the same extent, AFAIK) is the fantastic resource of private schools, many of which of course are charitable foundations. I hope they will set up partnerships with other groups to provide their expertise. Kids from Tower Hamlets going to a local school run with the help of Eton and with support from Goldman Sachs, for example? That sort of thing would really put a rocket under education for the less privileged. You have to cut out the LEA, of course - they already have form in blocking similar moves in the past.
216 Yes, PFI hasn’t been terribly good value (although the question “shall we buy it, commission it, make it, or rent it” is as valid a one for the public sector to pose when it needs something as it is for an individual or a private company)
208: “I remember a Tory saying to me on election night 1997 that Labour would be back out of power in 4 years because the Tories had so starved the NHS of money for investment and training that it would be virtually unable to function within two years, and Labour would be seen as failing on their most treasured policy”
That old nonsense again!
The only government ever to preside over a period of reduced spending on the NHS was Jim Callaghan’s prior to 1979.
The NHS was not ’starved’ by Thatcher - or Major - as spending never failed to be increased in every successive year between 1979 and 1997.
215.slightly?
208. The NHS had real terms increases throughout the Tory years. Just not to the same level as Labour.
Besides which the main NHS cash splurge didn’t start until 2000/2001. If that Tory’s point were true the NHS would have collapsed well before then, around 1999, which it didn’t.
Having Dobbo in charge of Health in 1997 cost several years progress for Labour.
212 tim
Fail on economy
Fail on wealth redistribution
Why has you party failed so badly after 13 years when they’ve thrown the kitchen sink at it and had no effective opposition to stop them ?
217 - The problem seems to be that the Tories always want to concentrate on a small group of children, Private and the a few in free schools.
To me the Lib Dems have the best ideas on Education, but as I say there’s not that much between them on a lot of issues.
Its a shame the Tories blew their own policy out of the water with the Ashcroft announcement as its an interesting subject.
There are always a minority of party supporters who celebrate the loss of people they regard as old enemies (indeed, those of us around in the Rik Willis days know it doesn’t even always cross party lines). Anyone senior has the good sense to be generous in their praise partly because it’s politic, partly because they often know the individual’s human side - and most people are personally quite nice when you get to know them.
In one sense it reminds me of the old Not The Nine O’Clock News sketch, where two politicians are having a blazing televised row. One is screaming at the other “This is the kind of man who…” when the target suddenly drops dead. Whereupon the survivor lowers his voice and without skipping a beat says, “…who will be sadly missed. A great parliamentarian and close personal friend.” In another, it’s basic decency.
217 Absolutely - imagine someone like Rory Stewart giving a geography lesson to kids like that??
I find it really tiresome that lefties portray Eton as some cushy, buy-your-grades here place.
From what I’ve read and heard - its a ferociously competitive place that takes no prisoners when it comes to building character and confidence.
206. Well I don’t think anyone doubted Clem Attlee’s patriotism or commitment to democratic values.
211. I won’t disappoint you, Casino Royale - your comment is indeed beneath contempt. I’m sick of quite a few people here, but unlike you I’m not arrogant enough to think I’ve got the right to tell them they should leave the site, or to specify the behaviour that would make them ’suitable’ posters. So no I do not propose to take your patronising little suggestion. Indeed, I suggest that you should urgently go away and read up on the way Chris q00 has been deliberately baiting me and a number of others over a period of weeks, and then apologise for suggesting that the tone of my response to him was anything other than wholly understandable.
146 Sad isn’t it that apparently African subsistence farmers can organise community schools but Brits haven’t the time or drive to do so.
Most parents do not have to organise the school, just those interested enough to do so and there are enough of them around, then they one who don’t have the time for lots of involvement provide the pupils and accasional help. It’s worked in lots of other countries and for plenty of community projects (look at number of community shops in UK). Doesn’t have to be only parents as voluntary organisations (not just religious ones), retired people can also get involved.
224 - I wonder how much the Tories could raise if the Wintertons fell under a bus.
Half a days GDP?
227.James, sorry if I upset you, I’m sure you have a very good blog.
224 tim
if they fell under a bus would that help wealth redistribution. Could we get the Blairs to do the same; or Lord Mandelson ?
It could help reduce wealth inequalities.
Lovely tribute from Maggie T to Michael Foot. As others have said, we are unlikely to see parliamentarians of their quality for a very long time.
I once spoke to Michael Foot. It was in 1949, i had just come from an anti Mosley/Fascist rally at Ridley Road, Hackney, and I had just turned 15. In those days I was a hotheaded lefty, (thankfully long grown out of).
Foot, I believe was one of the leaders in a march from Trafalgar Square, (I believe it was about Nuclear Disarmament, before his CND days),towards the East End. Anyway we met and spoke hot words, damning the Fascists, the Yanks and the Bomb, in that order.
Looking back on it, I was a jerk at 15. Foot on the other hand was a greater jerk at 36.
230. “James, sorry if I upset you, I’m sure you have a very good blog.”
But that’s one of the few things you haven’t been baiting me about, as far as I can remember!
227. Brilliant! Thank you James. You have made my point for me.
To react with the words “beneath contempt” followed by a stream of insults for just giving you just a little criticism reaffirms your personality for all to see here: highly sensitive, extremely defensive, insecure and aggressive.
Have you not considered to ask yourself why certain people may try and bait you? Could it possibly be because you are equally nasty towards others such that they are goading you for a reaction?
It’s a self-fulfilling prophecy James. You strike me as the sort of person who’d hold a grudge against someone *for life* just because they once had the audacity to disagree with you. Narcissim defined.
To be honest, I actually feel a bit sorry for you. I, myself, just ignore those who try and goad me. Occassionally I might snap, but I soon move on and forget about it.
So why lower yourself to their level?
You will find you lead a much more satisfying and happier life James.
(I predict your response: Casino, you are right! I could never lower myself to your level!)
The 1983 Labour Manifesto included:
* Provide a major increase in public investment, including transport, housing and energy conservation.
* Begin a huge programme of construction, so that we can start to build our way out of the slump.
* Halt the destruction of our social services and begin to rebuild them, by providing a substantial increase in resources.
* Increase investment in industry, especially in new technology - with public enterprise taking the lead. And we will steer new industry and jobs to the regions and the inner cities.
* Ensure that the pound is competitive; and hold back prices through action on VAT, rents, rates and fares.
* Introduce a crash programme of employment and training, with new job subsidies and allowances.
The rest of the manifesto can be found at:
http://www.labour-party.org.uk/manifestos/1983/1983-labour-manifesto.shtml
Rather than the longest suicide note in history it has become the blueprint for governments of all parties throughout Europe, and even on occasion in the USA. Such wisdom from a party lead by the greatest Englishman of his generation.
RIP MIchael, RIP the Labour Party
Raising NHS spending “in real terms” tells you nothing if you haven’t factored in both real NHS inflation (drugs and staff don’t necessarily increase in cost in line with RPI, especially not when your currency has collapsed like in the early 90s) nor the increase in available technologies creating cost pressures, and the rising proportion of older people, who are more likely to need treatment.
On topic: Another fascinating article Andy. Edmund in Tokyo does make an interesting point in that we would need to know how much of the LibDem vote was tactically anti-Iraq in 2005, though I would suggest that it isn’t helping Labour. Using Angus Reid we have the following figures for the marginals:
CON 42% (33)
LAB 28% (43)
LD 15% (17)
This would suggest that the LibDems are slipping but without any real improvement for Labour coming from it.
The YouGov Northern Marginals in the northern seats has these figures:
CON 42%(+8), LAB 36%(-8), LDEM 12%(-5)
so again the LibDem slippage is not helping Labour.
Where it would be interesting to look at for a comparison is the Lab-Lib seats. If it is happening there, then it says more about LD prospects than Tory chances.
Although Michael foot co-authored “Guilty Men” in 1940, He was one of those that would have seen Britain disarmed in the 1930’s.
He was later a great orator in parliament, but i think his chosen flag was the Red Flag over the Union Jack. He was a supporter of many of Stalin’s policies, including the occupation of Chekoslovakia in 1948. It was that fall out between Tito and Stalin that eventually gave him pause for thought.
234. You see James - there you go. You always assume the worst in people.
Why? Why not be more positive?
WE CAN HELP YOU.
Random thoughts before I go back to my day job:
1. IF yours truly was a betting man (or woman for that matter) then he (or she) would bet the farm (or a few acres anyway) on a Tory minority government.
This would be an excellent election for Labour to lose, but not by a lot.
One reason of course is the bad news that the next govt (or a contiuation of the current one) must put on the public doorstep.
An even bigger reason is the fact that (it seems) the longer a British party stays in power, the longer its subsequent period in opposition.
2. Fact that Gordon Brown was NOT at PMQs yesterday is sign that he & his top team are in full campaign mode. THEY understand the dynamic. Unlike (it appears) David Cameron and his team.
3. Amusing how PB’s Tory pom-pom squad is falling over itself trying to put a good face on the Ashcroft debacle. IF you are going to make jingoism a major campaign plank, then by definition it’s misguided to make a rich off-shore tax avoider your poster boy.
4. My personal theory is that pb nasties now trashing the memory of Michael Foot are actually in cahoots with Mandy & Co. Certainly they are helping mightly to prop up the Labour Party in its hour of need. IF I were Lady Thatcher (unlikely unless I suddenly turn gay and take to drag) then I’d be VERY concerned that some Tory stalwart might poison my tea. For purposes of provoking similar nastiness on the part of softer-brained Thatcher-bashers on the eve of the general election!
Very sad to hear about Michael Foots passing. RIP.
In Other Non News.
The pound is rising, where are the currency hysterics that were out in force on Monday.
Yawn.
Come on SeanT, is it Armageddon or Ambrosia?
YouGove show a Tory fall pound rises.
I really can’t be arsed constructing a narrative around short term currency movements.
Come on Seth, anyone?
237. That’s a different argument John and it’s not an invalid one.
The point I was making is that there is often talk about Tory “cuts” to the NHS when, in reality, there were real term increases in its budget almost every year.
Whether they were *enough* is a separate debate, but they certainly weren’t cuts.
236.Leave the European Community, advocated massive borrowing, unilateral disarmament, removing US missiles from UK territory….there is a very long, a very very long list.
It was a manifesto that confirmed Labour were not in the mainstream of British thinking and helped consign them to opposition for a generation.
244.Let him have the last word, he dishes out but can’t take it, but for his peace of mind just move on.
243 tim - Err, you do realise that the opinion polls and the risk of a hung parliament aren’t the only factor affecting currencies, don’t you?
235. CR, I’ll be brief, because your comment doesn’t really deserve to be dignified with any response, but I feel I have to when my character is under attack. The facts are these -
a) You launch a bitter, totally unprovoked personal attack on me, calling me ‘nasty’, an ‘arsehole’, and a ‘narcissist’.
b) You criticise me for responding with a ’stream of insults’.
Now, as a public service, I’ll point you in the direction of the words you need to look up in the dictionary to embark on your journey of discovery of precisely where it is you’re going wrong here - namely the words ‘hypocrisy’, ’self-awareness’, and ‘lack thereof’. And while you’re doing that, I’ll answer your question about whether I’ve pondered why people here might try to bait me - yes, indeed I have. It’s because I’m a left-of-centre, Scottish nationalist poster on a site where such views are about as welcome as anthrax spores. Next question?
tim., the markets work on signals and new information. There was new information on monday, there is no signifigent new information today. Trading will always cause up and down movements in the short term.
However, as you are so fond of saying, look at the trend.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/news/business/market_data/currency/11/12/three_month.stm
246. Surely you don’t mean John?!
240 Welcome to the club
228 But our society is more advanced than African subsistence farmers. That is why we have specialists to organise schools and we don’t do it ourselves. Where are all these community shops you speak so fondly of - I live in South London and frankly I don’t know of any.
IIRC one of the arguments for foundation hospitals was that they would provide opportunities for direct involvement by local communities - elected boards etc etc. But how many people take an interest in the process? And aren’t the ones who do mostly local politcal activists, former councillors etc who would have been involved in the old CHC system in any case? Has there been a massive upsurge in involvement from “the community” … er, no. So why would it happen in schools?
236 Malcolm - Brown could save money by recycling that manifesto. It sounds more coherent than what Ed Miliband is likely to come up with.
252. ‘I live in South London and frankly I don’t know of any.’
Beyond parody
251. “Welcome to the club”
If he’s in that particular club, it would indeed explain his behaviour this afternoon. PB.com - you guys!
252 For ’specialist’ read ‘vested interest’.
Why not let parents set up schools ? I think it’s a great idea - since when did a group of people who work for an LEA become uniquely qualified to know what everyone wants?
LEAs are self-sustaining controlling bureaucracies.
247 - Can you tell the hysterics that, I’ve been trying all week.
I was a candidate (for Chelsea) in 1983, and after the result wrote to Foot thanking him for his efforts and saying (a bit insincerely) that I thought that we’d done as well under his leadership as we could have hoped, given the Falklands conflict and the internal party divisions on policy, and I hoped he’d take some consolation in that. He wrote me a pleasant handwritten reply saying “Thank you for the comments and the magnaminous instinct that prompted them”. I was impressed that he’d bothered to write in person and that he hadn’t taken my well-meant flattery at face value.
236 Fascinating reading. Foot didn’t mess around, did he:
Labour believes that Ireland should, by peaceful means and on the basis of consent, be united, and recognises that this will be achieved with the introduction of socialist policies.
Not sure how that reconciles with the first half of the next sentence, though:
We respect and support, however, the right of the Northern Ireland people to remain within the UK,
And then it contradicts itself in the second half of the sentence:
although this does not mean that Unionist leaders can have a veto on political development.
258 Lovely honest tribute NPMP.
252.
“live in South London and frankly I don’t know of any.”
Maybe if you lived somewhere that was slight more homogeneous you might appreciate the concept of ‘community’. Just because where you live is a vacuum of moral and social values, doesnt mean elsewhere is.
257 tim
and you’ve been avoiding answering why Labour’s redistributive policies have failed.
248. “my character is under attack”, “bitter, totally unprovoked personal attack on me”, “’stream of insults’”.
You see: there you go again. Taking it all verrrry personally.
I’m commenting on your *attitude* and *behaviour*. Your problem is that you take all criticism of your behaviour, style, approach or arguments very personally.
That suggests to me you have a narcissitic personality and, frankly, not an insignificant number of issues.
You then respond, as you always do, by instantly turning it back on the “accuser” (in this case, me) and completely ignoring the criticisms made.
This is serious. YOU HAVE A PROBLEM.
Trust me: I’ve worked with several individuals in my company who’ve exhibited the same behaviours you do on here. The HR training was incredibly interesting. The ones who became happy and successful people took the feedback on board and learnt from it. They didn’t take it personally. Even if at first, they did. They understood HR were trying to help them.
Of the rest, the ones who chose to ignore it or refused to attend the training, a couple had nervous breakdowns and all of them managed to alientate all their peers and colleagues which only compounded the problem. Some lost their jobs because of it.
Which approach do you think was the right one?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/crime/7360825/James-Bulger-Jack-Straw-refuses-to-say-why-killer-was-returned-to-jail.html
Sounds like a turf war between the postie (who he?) and Straw.
252 nickc - You do know that Goldman Sachs wanted to set up (and provide finance for) an Academy School in Tower Hamlets, don’t you? And that, disgracefully, the local council vetoed it?
One major difference between David Cameron 2010 and Tony Blair 1997, is the fact that (so far) DC has failed where TB succeeded: in not only disassociating himself and his party from its recent, discredited past in a way that stamped him as a leader with broad appeal, capable of taking on his base without alienating it. Indeed, he inspired it.
On a similar note, for all of the heralded professional expertise of Lord C’Ashcroft & Co, doesn’t anyone at Tory HQ ever do any spot polling. For example, on the likely impact of the “Bully Brown” stragegy? IF they had, then likely they’d have discovered that this was a plus for Gordo BEFORE they went over the top.
Was one of David Cameron’s ancestors an eager aide de camp to Lord Haig?
259: Compared to most labour policies at the moment that sounds like the height of rigoresness.
241: ‘Fact that Gordon Brown was NOT at PMQs yesterday is sign that he & his top team are in full campaign mode.’
Campaigning for the votes of President Zuma and the Queen I take it. What utter rot! Brown should have been at PMQs to turn the heat up on Cameron over Ashcroft. Idiotically, he left it in the hands of Harriet, and it was a circus with Labour as the clowns.
259. The tortuous ideological reasoning of the trots that ran Labour at that time had to be experienced to be believed.
258 Out of interest Nick what is the motivation for a candidate in fighting such a hopeless seat on paper? A cynical interpretation would be that it would help in the struggle to win selection for a safer seat next time round!
Postie vs the Straw man
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/crime/7360825/James-Bulger-Jack-Straw-refuses-to-say-why-killer-was-returned-to-jail.html
“Jack Straw has said that it is not in the public interest to disclose why Jon Venables, the killer of James Bulger, was sent back to jail despite the Home Secretary saying that people have a right to know. “
266. The stream of bullying allegations have come from Labour, not the Tories.
PMQs not available on BBC1player. Is that because Hattie got slaughtered?
265. It costs about the same per pupil per year to educate in tower hamlets as it does at a minor public school.
258 Nick P - I hadn’t realised that I had an opportunity to vote for you; I was living in Chelsea in 1983. You won’t be surprised that my X didn’t get placed by your name!
258 - That was a good gig Nick, standing in Chelsea on the 1983 Manifesto.
I’m impressed that you got 12.8%
266 SSI - I don’t often disagree with you but eh?
The Tories went nowhere near the bullying allegations - Cameron suggested an independent investigation to sort it out after the LDs already had.
That was it - no other mentions at all.
Re: Michael Foot - any chance of the Labour Party reintroducing Clause 4 Part 4 in his honour?
273.You can watch it on their Democracy live plsyer
273.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/democracylive/hi/house_of_commons/newsid_8537000/8537496.stm
265 No I know nothing about that case. I am making a general point which is that the idea that there are legions of people out there just waiting for the election of a Tory government to set up their own school/health centre/other public service is fanciful. In my opinion.
Afternoon all,
Just a few random thoughts.
I see the Yogov figures are out and as I suspected last night the Conservative identifiers were up and the Labour identifiers were down and as a result we get a tightening in the Conservative lead. I’m starting to become very sceptical about this tracker (it seems to bare little resemblance to the polls Yougov used to provide for the Telegraph and Sunday Times)
It seems to me that if the polls react in a consistently counter-intuitive way to changes in the sample it suggests to me there is something wrong with the way it is working. My guess is that the weighting is out of kilter and this is smothering any real changes that may be going on.
Unfortunately Peter Kellner’s clear as mud explanations yesterday didn’t help……
Now I am not suggesting the race hasn’t tightended, or even that we are in hung parliament territory with either Labour or Conservatives with more seats. All I am saying is that I don’t trust this tracker and from my perspective it is giving us no steer as to what the real situation is. In fact I am starting to believe all it is doing is confusing the issue at a time when the polls need to be at their most accurate.
I’ve just watched PMQ’s and poor old Hattie is utterly dire. How on earth did she ever become an MP let alone Deputy Leader of the Labour party. This Ashcroft obsession is slowly but surely coming back to bite those who bang on about it. It is making them look like absurd trivial obsessives….
It is sad news about Michael Foot and whilst my politics are in many ways opposite to what I perceived his to be, there was no question that he was a fine and decent politician.
In other news (from Sky) a fox is found dead outside a chicken coop in Essex. Now it must be a really slow day for news.
277 - Cameron has been bringing it up at PMQ’s for weeks.
O/T- A chilling account of the likely series of events in the final moments of Air France flight 447 from Rio to Paris:
http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,679980,00.html
Not least of the chilling aspects (both literally and figuratively): the problem with frozen air speed indicators is apparently one to which all flights are susceptible.
6 Tim. Have you also read Michael Foot’s speech after the Falkland’s war was won, congratulating Margaret Thatcher? It was probably the most generous tribute to an Opposition leader ever made.
236 - thanks for that link to the 1983 Labour manifesto.
The fact that it was so toxic back then that even Newcastle-upon-Tyne Central went blue proves what a completely different era it was.
281. But the school would have a head teacher and a governing body, just like all other schools. I think you havent met a mob of angry parents who are stuck with a crappy school and are fed up about it.
“Cameron is the most radical leader of any major party in the UK since Maggie”
Surprisingly this was written by our ‘poster of the year’Richard Nabavi. Wishing something to be true doesn’t make it so.
It is one of the most absurd posts I’ve read on here by a serious poster
OT If you missed it - Paxo monsters Mark Thompson on Newsnight yesterday - its very amusing
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/newsnight/8546940.stm
Plato (and others) - be careful what you wish for if parents get even more influence in Schools. As a Governor for 30 years, I can tell you that some of them are only interested in the education of *their own* children, not anyone else in the school. Some of them have extraordinarily unrealistic expectations, as well as fanciful beliefs in their little darlings’ abilities!
CAMERON WILL HAVE INTERVIEW ON ITV1 WITH SIR TREVOR McDONALD
Per Broadcast front page:
http://www.broadcastnow.co.uk/
283 tim
well strange Prime Ministers lying in bunkers and distributing Nokias could be a means to help the poor.
281 - ‘…that there are legions of people out there just waiting for the election of a Tory government to set up their own school/health centre/other public service is fanciful.’
I’m sure that was said about buying council houses and shares in privatized industries at the time.
285 - I have, and his private letter to her.
They also campaigned together, to prevent Hurd appeasing the Bosnian Serbs, sadly to no avail.
http://blogs.wsj.com/iainmartin/2010/03/02/brown-missed-opportunity-not-going-for-march-25-election/
291 - Alanbrooke.
I don’t need another imbecilic stalker, can you take it somewhere else.
295 tim
why ? I ask you a straight question and you won’t answer. You’re quite happy to play “broken record” when it suits yourself.
288 Roger Wishing something to be true doesn’t make it so.
Indeed, Roger. And wishing something not to be true doesn’t mean it won’t be.
289 Particularly when he read out the Schedule for BBC 3 (or was it BBC4?)
298 BBC3 IIRC - Skippy, Hotter than My Daughter, Skippy, a film, Skippy and perhaps Skippy again.
It was hilarious
292. It was - along with grossly patronising comments about share and home ownership not being for ‘the likes of people like you (i.e working people)’.
My grandfather was told this by his local Labour councillor when he inquired about buying his rather modest home. He never voted Labour again.
243 tim
Why is the pound rising?
Lee anticipated this in his post yesterday. It has risen $1.3 cents today to $1.51. This should be put in context of a fall from $1.53 within 5 days.
The key is how it is moving against the Euro and/or a basket of currencies. After a week of performing worse than the Euro against the Dollar, it has broadly kept pace today. So today is a “no news” day in connection with short term currency movements. The pound has done neither well nor badly.
In general though this has been a good day for the global economy, with figures on consumer confidence, corporate profitability and US employment all better than expected. Hence the equity markets rising.
Too early to book that 17th Century Cheshire Hall for a party though.
P.S. Answered you on Hague odds at end of last thread.
O/T but significant: Keith Alexander, Britain’s first full time black football manager died overnight.
Can’t get the URL but this from the Times
“Alex Salmond was last night embroiled in an investigation by Britain’s broadcasting watchdog following allegations that the First Minister attempted to influence the output of Scottish Television for political gain.”
Runnymede - just read your comment re Michael Foot and the Falklands war - you may wish to withdraw it.A similar contribution was made by Enoch Powell - two politicians totally opposed to each other, agreeing that MT had done a remarkable job as a war leader. Perhaps Thatcher’s many denigrators should think about it.
298. Yes, one of Paxman’s very finest moments I thought. Thompson was awful - pure spin and bureaucratic bullsh*t.
298 - Mr Carp, Paxman read out BBC4’s evening listing.
Repeats - Skippy - and more repeats.
300. Like pre reformation clergy, Labour politicians have a vested interest in keeping their supporters ignorant. If they gained the tools to improve their own lives, why would they need them?
263. Tell me, CR, who has the greater ‘problem’ - someone who responds to insults, and engages in debate with those who criticise him, or someone who bizarrely goes out of his way to launch an unprovoked personal attack on someone for no apparent reason whatsoever, calling them ‘nasty’, an ‘arsehole’, and a ‘narcissist’? Forgive me if I’ve missed something, but where exactly in your response did you follow your own prescription by addressing the criticisms made, rather than ignore them and turn back on your accuser? This whole peculiar tirade that you appear to have been storing up for weeks (such festering grievances can scarcely be psychologically healthy) was always, I fear, still-born.
However, I won’t be too harsh on you this time, because the penny finally dropped about the nature of your problem following your latter remarks - I think I can save you the therapist’s fee.
“Trust me: I’ve worked with several individuals in my company who’ve exhibited the same behaviours you do on here. The HR training was incredibly interesting. The ones who became happy and successful people took the feedback on board and learnt from it. They didn’t take it personally. Even if at first, they did. They understood HR were trying to help them.”
I’m afraid it’s serious, CR. You sir, are Mr. David Brent.
PS. I do however undertake to make you and a number of other posters happy by entering into therapy myself to overcome my pathological non-Toryness should the election go the wrong way. I’m sure it will be The Law soon enough anyway.
If you are fed up with the Ashcroft nonsense, here are a few questions you could ask your MP if you are *lucky* enough to have a Tory MP
(from the Guardian)
And here are the questions:
1. In 1999 William Hague wrote to Tony Blair assuring him that Lord Ashcroft would change his tax status by the following financial year with the effect that he would pay “tens of millions a year in tax”. Did Lord Ashcroft indeed pay tens of millions a year in UK tax since becoming a peer?
2. How is Lord Ashcroft’s non-dom status consistent with his “solemn and binding” undertaking to become a permanent UK resident?
3. When did William Hague become aware that Lord Ashcroft was not domiciled in the UK for tax purposes?
4. When did David Cameron become aware that Lord Ashcroft was not domiciled in the UK for tax purposes?
5. Do you believe Lord Ashcroft misled William Hague when he promised to become a permanent resident as a condition for receiving a peerage?
Hopefully they should be able to clear things up
287, 290 Parents are indeed very good at complaining about underperforming schools. People also complain about poor service in restaruants, supermarkets, trains etc etc but that doesn’t mean they want to run the services themselves or that they are capable of doing so.
Most schools struggle to get enough parents to run an active PTA or serve as parent governors - people are afraid of the responsibility and don’t have the time. This does not suggest that there is a massive unmet demand for greater parental involvement.
302. Significant to his family, yes, and possibly the clubs he worked for. Anyone else? really?
259 - Trying to read the 1983 Labour manifesto with logic is a desperate and thankless task. Anyone who thinks a party deserved to be elected on it belongs in the funny farm.
Nice note, Nick. However mad some of the politics, he really seems to have been a decent chap.
Just watched Harman at PMQs - she was worse than Prescott. I never believed it possible, but My God she was bad.
300 - my Labour supporting grandparents lived exactly by that creed - “it’s not for the likes of us”.
Ironic when my grandad died, the first thing my brother did was book a flight to New York, because he reckoned that was something “the likes of us” should never do, and that’s why he did it.
One easily forgets the attitudes around back then, which weren’t nearly so caring as some may want to believe
309 - Really *no one* cares - if the number of people who said they were concerned about the PM bullying staff registered under 10% respondants - who is interested in Ashcroft’s tax status when arguing over the semantics of ‘perm resident’ and ‘long term resident’.
It’s the ultimate Westminster Labour hobbyhorse - bring back Latvian homophobes
236, Malcolm - hey are you back in the Flickertail State yet? AND have you announced for the Democratic nomination to succeed Sen. Dorgan?
IF you think that your accent, etc. might hold you back, keep in mind the tremendous popularity of the cockney Geico Gecko her in the Colonies!
Just need to moderate your anti-Blairism in order to sucker in a slice of GOP nostaligia for TB. Which for example I think may be one of the reasons (but certainly not the only one) for why S&S tends to be bullish on Brown.
310. They wont be running the school, the head teacher will run the school. The parents can set the values of the school. I wish (though it would never happen) that they could have the opportunity to bring back corporal punishment in such a school…
309. Given that Lord Ashcroft paid more Uk tax last year than you ever will RR - do you feel inadequate ?
299. “It was hilarious
“
Hilariously misconceived more like, given that the ‘bought-in film’ he sneered about just happened to be the TV premiere of The Lives of Others, one of the best-regarded pieces of foreign language cinema from the last few years. He could hardly have chosen a worse night to try out that jibe - what other channel would show a film like that? Film Four perhaps, but I can’t think of too many others.
311 - I once interviewed him.
Nice enough bloke, but got the feeling his previous brain anyeurisms had effected him somewhat.
302 - Poor guy, he can’t have been old. I remember him at Lincoln when I used to go to see the mighty Dale regularly.
309 RedRiding - No need to waste MPs’ time. I can answer those questions as well as any MP:
1. Lord Ashcroft’s tax returns are of course confidential, but he pays full UK tax like any other resident.
2. Residence for tax purposes and Domicile are independent concepts. I suggest you look at any standard text book on taxation if you are still confused on this distinction.
3. I have no idea, you’d better ask William Hague. Why does it matter?
4. I have no idea, you’d better ask David Cameron. Why does it matter?
5. Of course not. He is a permanent resident.
319. But what does it provide that cant be provided by one of the many freeview commercial channels. But then if they have little original programming, they probably dont cost very much to maintain. It isnt as if they have to pay huge resources for airwaves or anything.
319 and the other programmes on that evening?
Skippy, Skippy, Skippy the Bush Kangaroo - not once but thrice IIRC? I saw it the first time round in the 70s. 40yr old TV?
Seth.
Really, I would leave the worries about short term currncy movements to the more emotional posters.
On Hagues odds.
If you want 1.45 on the Betfair Market I’ll put it up.
Now that the disgraced Charlie Rangel is stepping down from his perch as Chairman of the most powerful committee in the House, he will apparently be replaced by the post-partisan uniter Pete Stark of California:
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0310/33845.html
To give a sense of who Mr. Stark is, here are some gems:
“POLITICO reported earlier this week that officials found Stark was “extremely belligerent” toward investigators from the Office of Congressional Ethics and used a semi-hidden video camera to tape his interview during a probe of whether he improperly applied for a homestead tax exemption in Maryland even though his official residence is in California…
He once accused one former Republican Ways and Means colleague, Nancy Johnson of Connecticut, of getting her information from “pillow talk,” and called another, Scott McInnis of Colorado, a “fruitcake.”
In 2007, he accused Republicans of sending soldiers to Iraq “to get their heads blown off for the president’s amusement.”"
312 The ‘Legend’ of the 1983 manifesto is that it was actaually a first draft put forward by the Left wing of National Executive, assuming that most of it would be thrown out in discussions.
The Right Wing / Union block decided to give them enough rope and agreed to the manifesto with no changes, and let the party go down to a bad defeat in the election.
I’m not sure how true this is (makes a good story), although there are some that think the Blairites have been using the same strategy over the last few months, and would prefer a defeat to purge the Brownites.
277, Plato - “The Tories went nowhere near the bullying allegations[...]”
Is this really true? Certainly isn’t impression I got from my own random sampling of pb & Ian Dale.
Speaking of Michael Foot, it wasn’t the donkey jacket I remember, but he always wore a duffle coat. He was always scruffy and unkempt.
Even though I could not have disagreed with him more politically, I respect him for having the courage to stand up for what he believed in.
92 Madsafish. On the other hand, if Michael Foot had won in 1983, we would now be outside the EU. Who would like to write the “Alternative History” for the last 25 years?
317 Wow - corporal punishment - I’m sure that would attract some people but probably not the kind you would want to allow near your children!
325. Why would anyone back Hague @ 1.45 when a Con majority is 1.64 ?
An utter hypocrite on Michael Foot.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/7361120/Tony-Benn-writes-on-the-death-of-Michael-Foot.html
324. Funny that you used a rolls-eyes smiley, Plato, because that was exactly my reaction last night to Paxman. When he started reading out the schedule, I wondered how on earth he was going to cope with The Lives of Others at the heart of the evening. What does he do? Doesn’t list the name, but instead refers vaguely to a “bought-in film”.
Worthy of a
indeed.
330 Svejk - Yes, amusing to think our own Nick Palmer stood for parliament on a manifesto of leaving the EU. I wonder if he still believes in that? UKIPpers for Palmer?
http://twitter.com/BBCLauraK/status/9932598386
318 Hey Flashman got me on that one! I get paid through an Employee Benefits Trust in the IoM so I don’t actually pay UK income tax
328 IIRC the Tories were very careful to stay well clear of it…along the lines of don’t-interrupt-them.
PB as ever can give a misleading impression
3330
Do you really think Michael Foot would have been competent enough a Leader to exit the EU without a complete shambles leaving to a humiliating reversal of policy?
My memory of Michael Foot is that of a man who could not organise a piss up in a brewery, however nice a person he might have been.
335. No more amusing than to recall Margaret Thatcher’s days as a pro-European and pro-devolutionist.
337. In my book you shouldnt get a vote then
297. Richard. Can you point me to the books and pamphlets on political philosophy by David Cameron?
326, S&S - fair comment on Peter Stark (but the so was his re: Scott McInnis!)
As for Charlie Rangel, my own view (more in sorrow than anger) is good riddance. Unfortunately he’s morphed into a 21st cen. version (albeit much less flamboyant, but also much more substantive) of the man he defeated (in Dem primary) so many years ago: Adam Clayton Powell.
Personnally think this is yet another example of the unconscious arrogance(very similar to UK parliamentary expenses scandal) of bascially decent people who are in power too long with little to no effective oversight.
327 Yes it is broadly true that the moderates on the NEC allowed the “longest suicide note” manifesto to go through because they wanted to ensure the left’s position was defeated at the ballot box.
You can’t compare Labour’s divisions in the 1980s to Blairites vs Brownites now - totally different - the 1980s were far more bitter and wide-ranging and went right through the party from top to bottom. The two sides had different world views and fundamental beliefs. Today’s arguments are insignificant by comparison.
342. Pol Pot and Mao wrote books too, Roger - so what?
342 Roger - I can’t. But nor can I point you to the books and pamphlets on political philosophy by Margaret Thatcher, so I don’t think that signifies very much. But I do suggest you read Cameron’s speeches; you will find them really quite radical. Whilst I understand the cynicism after 13 years of New Labour spins and lies, I think the simplest explanation for him saying what he does say, even if it is electorally unpopular or unwelcome in the party, is political conviction.
Read Seths post on the previous thread.
There is obviously a chance of a Tory Minority Govt as well.
345 runnymede
but they nactually wrote theirs , Brown ghosted his.
Just watching PMQ’s, Harman started off very badly and very shaky, before Hague started asking questions. I wonder what rattled her so badly? Her mistake over the guilts question was a basic error, and the rest of her answer to that question was terrible.
319.It’s been shown on SkyMovies for the past few months
330: “Who would like to write the “Alternative History” for the last 25 years?”
It’d be a short book. a rapid transformation to become the off-shore island equivalent of East Germany. And probably still much the same today as in the ‘90 there’d have been no opportunity to drive our Trabants across the border though Czechoslovakia and Hungary to Austria to escape and prompt a peaceful change.
OT is it just me or are stories about incentuous sex being reported more often?
I don’t really recall this before the Fritzl horror.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/highlands_and_islands/8548094.stm
It’s sickening how so many Tories on here can make fun of the death of the great and noble man who was Michael Foot.
351. I stand corrected, but BBC Four is much more widely available (or more cheaply available, perhaps I should say).
Cameron not interefering in bullying saga…
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/8527611.stm
Hague has done an interview.
Sound like he’s dobbing in Ashcroft.
339 Madsafish.Shambles? Very probably - that is why I suggested you might like to write the alternative history of the last 25 years, an even worse disaster than the present one, if that is possible!
354. It’s sickening how so many Tories on here can make fun of the death of the great and noble man who was Michael Foot.
Yes, so much for the contrast to what might happen with Thatcher.
Re: YouGov London poll. It is a properly weighted poll based on aggregated data from the daily polls YouGov have been running:
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/2484
354 jamie
so you don’t find Sally Bercrow using his death as a fund raising stunt distasteful ?
354.Which posts have made fun of Michael Foot?
357 tim
put the broken record back on I see
354. I counted about 3 in the entire thread including me.
357. When it comes to Hague, no-one believes a word you say.
356 Really Roger - is that the best you can do? A single sentence asking for an inquiry to sort it out?
Compare that very muted response to how Labour annihilated Mrs Pratt.
343 - Roger - Camerons thoughts have not been written down, but there is a soundtrack.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oWMIXgCaJPQ
364 TGHF
he’d better not see the obituaries on Guido.
343- Yes, as the old adage goes, “power corrupts, and absolute power corrupts absolutely.” Of course, some apples are more prone to go rotten than others.
It’s also eerie how Rangel has finally fallen at the same time that his fellow Harlem pol, Governor Paterson, seems on the verge of political collapse as he is now ensnared in a scandal that may see him moving out of the governor’s mansion even before the natural expiration of his term:
http://www.nypost.com/p/news/local/top_cop_forced_dOsVxq1LJTDh55YzVuLuBL
Basically, Paterson is accused of being personally involved in an effort to silence a woman who was a domestic abuse victim of one of Paterson’s top aides.
347. Richard. Ok I’ll settle for a single ORIGINAL policy by Cameron which can be described as radical.
256 - Roger, as has already been mentioned up thread, Cameron called for an inquiry only after Clegg had already proposed it and only when asked to comment by a reporter.
303 Plato
Try reading the actual article.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/scotland/article7048194.ece
“The Scottish government had no influence in the making, content or scheduling of the programmes.
362. I’ve been looking for them, who’s made fun of his death here?
355.So apart from SkyMovies, FilmFour and BBC2 and CH4 no other channel would show that Oscar winning movie and that justifies BBC4.
ok..
346 - But you could point to the books and pamphlets of people like Friedman and Keith Joseph who were clearly important influences on Thatcher. I’m really not sure even who the people who’ve had an influence on Cameron’s philosophy are. Nudge? Not really in the same league is it? Interesting but not sweeping.
There is nothing wrong as such with being a cautious pragmatist. And that’s what Cameron is. As Roger suggests, I think you’re basically projecting when you call Cameron a radical - you wish he was more radical than he is, so you imagine it’s so.
372 I simply posted a press story Mr O. Nat.
Shooting the messenger isn’t something I associate you with.
366 - You have a selective memory, or did you miss Camerons references at PMQ’s.
Anyhow, have you had a reply to your letter of support to Ms Pratt yet.
And did you read this?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/7345999/Christine-Pratt-failed-to-carry-out-proper-investigation.html
or this
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/7327320/Head-teacher-accused-of-worst-bullying-by-Christine-Pratt-is-cleared-of-wrongdoing.html
S&S, so what is your take on the big news from yesterday’s Texas Primary . . . namely the defeat of Kinky Friedman in the Democratic primary for TX Commissioner of Agriculture?
370 Roger - I don’t see that a policy has to be original to be radical. I don’t think he is a political theorist coming up ground-breaking new ideas; more a pragmatist (in the best Conservative tradition), prepared to adopt ideas which address real issues. Look, for example, at what he has said about localism; many people have dismissed that because they don’t think he is serious about it. I think he is serious about it; it has certainly been a consistent theme.
376 Plato
When I shoot you, you’ll know!
You try to give some basic education to some people, and they get hurt!
And for further emphasis
A totally bizarre story about Tony Abbott, Australia’s Liberal leader
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/national/tony-abbott-lost-in-the-outback-for-hours-after-being-abandoned-by-traditional-aboriginal-guide/story-e6frf7l6-1225836579913
Tory Bear seems to be all over the Glasgow Council story
“If Purcell really did want to get away from politics for a while why then has he retained PR man Jack Irvine from the Media House PR firm?
Mr Irving is a crisis manager, but TB hears perhaps Mr Purcell better find a relationship councillor too…”
Also.
5/2 SNP for Linlithgow still available @ Ladbrokes.
372. When was it on BBC2 or Channel 4?
379 - Much of the localism will be dumped now Hilton has been sidelined.
New thread up.
378- I am stunned that the Democratic primary voters of Texas could be so foolish as to turn their noses up at the agricultural expertise of Mr. Friedman.
http://www.atlantajewish.com/graphics/subpages/content/032006/kinky-inside.jpg
384. How do you know he’s been sidelined? One vague guardian article and suddenly it’s a fact.
381.Only in Australia..from the article..
Almost two hours later, with the sun heading down below the ridges, there was no sign of Conway or Junior. We were down to our last drop of water and the quads were low on fuel. We had no food. No beer. And no guide.
375, Sir Norfolk - am assuming that Kinky is the Friedman to whom you are referring . . .
384 tim, you’re simply making stuff up now. Naughty, naughty.
282 jsfl
It would be interesting to see a graph of Conservative lead plotted against the adjustments made by YouGov that covers all their daily polls. We can then evaluate the degree of correlation.
tim-o-thicket when will Brown make a statement on Lord Paul, or at least make himself available for interview on the subject.
The central question needs an answer. Why was he made a privy councillor? Was it in any way related to his donations to Labour, Brown’s leadership campaign or buying the Brown book on courage to ensure it didn’t end up in the remainders bin?
And how much does Brown know and support Paul’s assett stripping operations?
A grateful nation awaits an explanation. Or do we have to await the election debates?
New Thread
376 Sir Norfolk - Cautious, yes. Pragmatist, certainly. Quite right too. Both are excellent qualities in a Conservative PM. Although it tends now to be forgotten, Maggie was quite cautious too. She didn’t fight battles she thought she might lose (until she went a bit mad on the Poll Tax).
One thing that is interesting about Cameron is that he seems to have already chosen some areas where he will be cautious - notably, the NHS, and also (before the financial crisis) public spending. The latter, of course, has become something where bolder action is now unavoidable, whoever forms the next government.
Equally, he has signified other areas as ones where he will be more radical, notably education, reform of the way in which the public sector operates, and localism.
275/276: thanks! The 1983 campaign was a total shambles locally. I only had one member who was willing to be my agent, and he turned out to be a raving Trot who forged part of my election address to “spice it up a bit”. Since we couldn’t afford to reprint, we sent it out anyway (he hadn’t put in anything really outrageous), whereupon he kept drawing up grandiose campaign plans, asking for a ’street agent’ to be appointed in every road to coordinate local activity and claiming we were ’sure to win’. We rapidly realised that the only thing to do was ignore him and just do a frenetic canvass all day every day to try to shore up the vote. I was pleasantly surprised to save the deposit (the threshold was then 12.5%), despite as we now know Richard Nabavi’s inexplicable failure to support me.
The main long-term effect was unfortunately to spoil the political career of Stephen Benn, then a promising left-wing member of the GLC and then as now a really nice guy. I won by an electricity failure. We were the main contenders and the selectorate then just the General Committee was split 13-13 as we went into the deciding ballot. As my speech reached its finale, all the lights went out. I had only a minute left so I continued to harangue the meeting through the pitch darkness, to increasing hilarity until eventually the chair halted play and gave me a minute more when the lights came back on. I won by 14-12, and the delegate who switched later told me he liked my ’sang-froid in the face of adversity’ and thought prophetically that ‘it might come in handy’ in the election that year. Stephen switched to become Parliamentary adviser to the British Society of Chemistry, where he continues to do a great job, but he’d have made a good MP so I still feel a bit guilty.
354 - That’s an outrageous slur on the Tories on the thread. We’re not making fun of his death!
I’m starting to feel sorry for Tory activists. They’ve invented this chimera which is all things to all men. Unfortunately it’s invisible to everyone else.
342 Roger
I believe Cameron went straight to DVD.
He is a modern media man.
C4 - Hague on TV, voters flee.
Anyone remember Camerons speech?
Football’s on.
Ashcroft for England!