Another poll has the Tories doing better in the marginals
March 4th, 2010UPDATED
But the swing is only two points better
A YouGov poll for Channel 4 in 60 key seats by YouGov has the gap between the parties down to just two points - but given what happened in the seats in 2005 this represents a 6.5% swing.
This compares with a swing of 4.5% in recent national YouGov polls.
As Anthony Wells points out at UKPR the differential is consistent with previous YouGov marginals polls.
Here is the link.
I’m on my way London to take part in a BBC news channel discussion. More on this later.
Mike Smithson
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I’m number 1!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Finally!!!!!!!!!!!
NUMERO UNO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I got the first place! HUZZAH!!
unaware of the fact we had a new thread:
662.Had a look at this poll. So Labour up to just 1% below 2005, I dont think so.
In Scotland the poll has Labour 39, Tories 23, SNP 21 and LibDems 14. Again there is no way Scottish Labour is going to achieve the level of support it got in 2005.
Peter Kellner dodged the questions about weighting on Tuesday afternoon. Sorry but unless we get a very clear and straighrforward explanation from YouGov, I will now consider all their polls dodgy due to questionable weighting of party support. 1992 here YouGov comes.
by Easterross March 4th, 2010 at 5:08 pm
Well done to Gabble for dominating the threads and creating lots of posts!
Great to see the SNP doing so well in what are Lab/Con marginals.
We are at 21%. It would be lovely to know what level we were at in these Scottish seats in 2005.
Does anyone know which Scottish seats were surveyed?
Peter Kellner’s Analysis is here:
http://www.channel4.com/news/articles/politics/domestic_politics/analysis+tories+short+of+overall+majority/3569147
When was this poll performed?
I think Scotland opinion poll numbers are skewing all the polls.
2.bob, and you managed a lap of honour before anyone else arrived!
Well done.
FPT: This YouGov business is very odd.
In 2009, they found 689 Conservative supporters and 503 Labour, which they weighted to 662 and 564.
In 2010, 1215 Con 861 Lab was weighted to 1070 and 1015.
So they are actually finding a substantially higher proportion of Conservative supporters in their sample, which they’ve reported as a lower proportion. So their sample seems to have shifted in some way.
Details here:
http://www.channel4.com/news/media/2010/03/day04/04_poll.xls
http://www.channel4.com/news/media/2009/02/day04/full_results.xls
Very worrying for the Tories. They need to start performing again.
Gordon Brown hasn’t had any bad media play for ages (apart from bullying, but that cut both ways). There is no scrutiny of Labour plans - partly because they have announced a spurious 50% deficit reduction without saying what it entails in any respect whatsoever.
The Tory machine is failing - failing badly.
FPT 518. jsfl, The comparative 2009 marginals poll is very interesting.
Even back then, they had to hard weight Lab ID up by 148 from 593 to 741 (30% to 37%) and it only led to an increase in Labour vote share of 61.
There are no weightings for the 2010 poll yet that I can see, but inorder to get an increase in Labour voting intention of 154 from 861 to 1015, I’m guessing the reweighting of this sample when they release it is going to show it was enormous.
Others are at 9% in these Lab/Con marginals. They were at just 6% in these seats in 2005.
Is this yet more evidence that the “Others” are NOT going to get squeezed? Even in the key Lab/Con marginals. If so, that is pretty important.
5. It can’t be that many, can it, Stuart? How many Labour-held genuine Lab-Con marginals are there in Scotland? I can only think of a few.
Afternoon all
I have to say this looks better for the Conservatives than might be apparent from the headline numbers. Even on this poll there are 95 likely gains from Labour and add in 20-25 from the LDs and SNP and Cameron crawls across the line with an overall majority.
I’m reminded that Harold Wilson ended 13 years of Tory rule in 1964 winning with a majority of 3 - is life that symmetrical and will the Conservatives likewise end 13 years of Labour rule with a majority of 3 this year ?
8 - lol, ta! I owe it all to my family, who have supported me through out my efforts to get the first post. I would also like to thank Morris Dancer, for always having faith in me, and the Screaming Eagles for supporting me when I thought that I would never live the dream. Well I’m living that dream now! Finally, I’d like to thank Tim, for just being Tim!
Latest YouGov Scottish sub-sample (usual caveats apply)
(+/- change from UK GE 2005)
Lab 40% (+1)
SNP 26% (+8)
Con 19% (+3)
LD 12% (-11)
Grn 1% (n/c)
BNP 1% (+1)
UKIP 1% (+1)
oth 1%
http://www.yougov.co.uk/extranets/ygarchives/content/pdf/TheSun-results_03.03-trackers.pdf
If you pump those into the Electoral Calculus calculator, you get:
Lab 42 seats (+2 seats)
SNP 7 seats (+1)
LD 7 seats (-4)
Con 3 seats (+2)
(Speaker 0 seats (-1))
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/scotland.html
Peter Kellner’s reputation, R.I.P.
3. “In Scotland the poll has Labour 39, Tories 23, SNP 21 and LibDems 14. Again there is no way Scottish Labour is going to achieve the level of support it got in 2005.”
Easterross, it’s a poll of Labour marginals - ie. seats they won in 2005. 39 means their support has almost certainly fallen in Scotland - in any case that’s a subsample with a huge margin of error.
I must say even by recent standards people are clutching at straws with this. YouGov are very experienced, reputable pollsters, and while no-one would claim they’re infallible, the unspoken suggestion from many that they’re ‘manufacturing’ less favourable results for the Tories is risible.
The YouGov marginals poll gives a swing from Lab to Con of 6.5%, which would turn 95 Labour seats blue. The Tories would then need 22 gains from the LDs to win an overall majority.
Peter Kellner then says that he thinks the Tories will be “doing well” to unseat more than 10 LD MPs.
Tory targets 1-10 from the LDs involve seats with majorities going up to 4.7% = swing of 2.4%.
Tory targets 11-22 from the LDs involve seats with majorities from 6.0% to 10.5% = swing of 5.3%.
So the analysis of the Tories being short of an overall majority isn’t based on the scientific poll of Lab/Con marginals, but rather Peter Kellner’s opinion regarding whether the Tories can win numbers 11-22 on their target list of LD seats.
3. Easterross
I will now consider all their polls dodgy due to questionable weighting of party support.
- You and me both
10 I expect they might be hanging back until the inevitable negatives from tomorrow’s Chilcot leave Brown prone and babbling for a few days.
Does this mean each seat has a 2% victory for the conservatives?
20 new name, given to me by Christina a while back, I like it
Please can we have some non-YouGov/ARS polling on a regular basis? I do like YouGov/ARS but they are producing data that is just out-weighing the other companies. Why isn’t ICM or Populus being employed to do more?
On this poll, the headline figures are too close for comfort (or a glorious return of the Great Leader dependent on one’s political persuasion). Whilst the weightings gives me pause, the tightening gives me concern.
EU court upholds opposition to minimum pricing
http://www.scotsman.com/news/EU-court-upholds-opposition-to.6125767.jp
This could affect the Conservative and SNP proposals, I think. Maybe others too.
3 - EasterRoss:
The Labour lead was 11% in 2005 in the seats in question in this marginals poll.
So a Tory lead of 2% now gives a swing of 6.5%, enough for the Tories to win down to number 123 on their target list, which is actually more than the 117 they need for a majority.
The reason Peter Kellner is saying they won’t win an overall majority is because he is guessing that the Tories won’t do as well at winning LD seats.
In other words, the hung parliament headline of this story is not actually based on the poll itself, but on Peter Kellner’s belief about what will happen in LD/Con marginals seats.
Cable first choice for Chancellor; Osborne last!
27
17
15
10- Disbelieving Tories here on PB have been whistling past the graveyard for way too long. Not that a few Tories on PB make a difference in the big picture, but it is worrying to the extent that they’re representative of overall Tory sentiment.
In an old newsreel of RAF pilots from the time of the Blitz, there is an image of a bell outside their barracks bearing the words “Don’t come and tell… ring this like hell,” to be used by the first person who had news of enemy aircraft in the vicinity. Somebody needs to start ringing like hell to rouse the Tories from their slumbers and into the reality that they may very well lose this election.
The Tory attack on Labour has been poor of late. Osborne is attacking Labour for not being serious enough about the deficit, yet Labour claim they will halve it in 4 years. All the tories have been saying of late is that voting Labour will produce some sort of doomsday scenario - because Labour aren’t planning any cuts until 2011! That being a whole 1 year after the Tories plan to start making cuts. Looks to most people like small change.
Instead, why don’t the Tories admitt hat labour’s plan to halve the deficit is probably about right, but instead criticise the government for not being clear about HOW they would do it and not being honest about the pain ahead.
5 Stuart
The only Scottish seats involved should be East Renfrewshire, Stirling & D&G (if 5.7 counts as 6). Anthony Wells is out of the office so can’t check my feeling that they actually included another seat in Scotland which didn’t match the parameters. The data is weighted to the demographics of these 60 seats, so the sub samples may be less (or more!) awry than normal.
When admin/Mike gets to this post, it is Dyed in some wool somewhere, I am changing names to Dyed Woolie, can you release and let me post under the new nom de plume?
Thanks!
… but rather Peter Kellner’s opinion regarding whether the Tories can win numbers 11-22 on their target list of LD seats…
yes, exactly. As I said on the previous thread, finger in the air - or perhaps a projection of his hopes.
17 James - Don’t be ridiculous. No-one is claiming that YouGov are ‘manufacturing’ the result. We’re simply trying to understand what is going on.
A priori, I would expect the adjustments made to the 2009 and 2010 raw data to be fairly similar (same pollster, same methodology, similar time of year), but they are not.
In particular, since the headline lead is the small difference of two numbers, any small error in the adjustments to the raw figures would have a huge effect on the lead.
The irony of all this is that if OGH hadn’t introduced Angus Reid to the UK none of us possibly would have been the wiser and would have been swallowing these Yougov polls hook, line and sinker.
Well done Mike Smithson!
FPT. What on earth is going on with the electorate? Assuming these opinion polls are to be believed and there hasn’t somehow been an effort to compromise the results it’s really hard to understand. I’m starting to come round to the view that a friend of mine espoused that the public want to believe in all this insane spending beyond our means because if the government gets away with it then they will do so too.
The budget date/election date issue baffles me at the moment too. For all the world it looks like June - but how are they going to deal with the local elections - can they just move them for convenience?
These are very odd times. Quite good for betting though.
26. “Somebody needs to start ringing like hell to rouse the Tories from their slumbers and into the reality that they may very well lose this election.”
My own advice would be - “shush, everyone! They need their kip.”
Heres your killer stat Mr Smithson
Who Do You think would make the best PM
Camerons Lead down from 18 points in Feb 2008 to 5 today.
And also, falling behind on the economy.
Gordon Brown does have a three point lead over David Cameron in the question which party leader is best equipped to lead Britain out of its current economic difficulties, on 31 per cent.
“Which of the party leaders do you think best understands the problems ordinary people face in difficult economic times”
Brown 27
Cameron 18
Many thanks to those who have enlightened me to the dodgy yougov weightings there is clearly something wrong when all the weightings go to labour both from LD and tory.
A small question is it just me or has the politicshome website gone really downhill since it changed its format?
Kellner has just done a demolition job on Cameron and the tories on Radio 4 (BBC).
Quite a good job too! The innuendo and pro labour twist were quite magnificent.
Now tell me that kellner is not a 100% labour supporter, and that he is not using his position on YouGov to pull strings.
17 It’s not that people are suggesting that Yougov are doing it on purpose, it just seems to look like Yougov are ignoring the obvious fact that they can’t find the same numbers of respondents from Lab/Con. Surely that is quite important, i.e. the level of support has decreased to a level at which they can’t even get the respondents, but it isn’t reflected in the final figures.
I will wait for ICM/Populous at the weekend, if their data shows a similar gap to Yougov then I think it won’t matter, but if there a bigger gap is seen then questions will rightly be asked.
FPT. You can be more honest than a fireman about the fact that your house is on fire, without necessarily being more qualified to remedy the problem.
by James Kelly March 4th, 2010 at 4:58 pm
You can’t trust a fireman who is less honest about the quantity of flames…
An yet, the people polled think that Gordo can solve the economic problems by telling lies.
Oh good.
30. “Don’t be ridiculous. No-one is claiming that YouGov are ‘manufacturing’ the result. We’re simply trying to understand what is going on.”
No-one? I said it was an unspoken suggestion, but you can hardly deny it’s been vocalised by a few.
The poll is in seats Labour won by 6-14%. That is a very wide band but the mid point is 10%. The Tories are now 2% ahead so the swing in these seats is 6% which is ahead of the national swing and way ahead of current polls. Worse case scenario is 6+2/2= 4% swing but that seems unlikely.
Like others I have real doubts about any polls with this kind of weighting. It makes the result whatever the polling organisation wants. Even putting bias to one side how much can such an opinion be relied upon.
I may be wrong but one thing that has changed since the start of the year is expenses limits started which are pretty tight (I believe less than 40k from Jan 1st to polling day). It may be this has slowed the Tories down in many areas.
dave, it has gone downhill.
FPT - Bob Sykes - “I have to say that on today’s form, the Gabble-Tim tag-team are doing more to drive me back towards the Tories than anyone in the Shadow Cabinet…”
I must say that I think Labour are most unwise to allow themselves to be publicly represented by such repulsive characters.
I was long under the impression that “tim” was a “false flag” operation, designed to blacken the name of the Labour Party.
If it is not a CCO dirty op, then the “tim” team is a most remarkable own goal. It just shows how profoundly thick Labour’s high heid yins really are.
At least there will be a real poll on May 6th - a fair one where the electorate speak - not a pollsters opinion - take the good people of Glenrothes for example - had they believed the pollsters they would have an SNP MP by now - instead true democracy spoke and Labour were returned.
Peter Kellner’s belief in a hung parliament is based on the idea that the Tories will have trouble winning more than 10 LD seats. The poll itself doesn’t say this.
That means he thinks they might not win seats like Torbay - LD majority = 6.0%, or Sutton & Cheam - LD majority = 6.2%.
26. Well on Sunday, Mr 14 pints gave them a reason to be skeptical of these latest YouGove numbers. Balanced Tory polling shows we are well on course to win a majority at the next election. So that’s alright then.
Sigh.
Well we can all play kiddie games of posting in bold.
Unweighted figures for Feb 2009 poll
Con 44
Lab 32
LD 14
Other* 10
Unweighted figures now
Con 44
Lab 31
LD 16
Other* 9
* extrapolated
IT’S ALL IN THE WEIGHTING
I used capslock too.
Are there any markets available for the local elections on May 6th anywhere?
I think this poll quite clearly shows the utter irresponsibilty of the British people. Despite being under the rule of the worst dictatorship since the bad old days of Caligula and the oodles of strictly legitimate cash being showered over their ungrateful heads they still allow the black propaganda of the Labour-supporting press and so-called television to persuade them that they may not want the undeniable talents and unwavering policy strengths that David Cameron simply overflows with. I give up - when will they ever learn?
44. “instead true democracy spoke and Labour were returned.”
Interesting. Are you predicting another outright Labour victory in defiance of the polls? I didn’t realise things were quite that bad for the Tories.
I have to say referring to the YouGov weightings as dodgy is unacceptable as compared with questioning their methodology, which is acceptable.
But what is inexplicable and inexcusable is why Peter Kellner totally ignored the weightings issues when he was here. All the legitimate concern about YouGov’s methodology could have been addressed and many people reassured, or at least better informed. So why the silence? Has Mike contacted him again?
43 If you really think that then you need to take a look at Charlie Whelan. Tim/Gabble etc… all have the same talking points Whelan pushes out so if they are getting orders it certainly isn’t from CCHQ.
Tories don’t like the polls so the polls must be wrong.
47 - Same pollster, same marginals yet Camerons lead as best PM has fallen by 13 points.
Tell me that is part of the conspiracy.
24 - He’s saying they’d win 95 *including* the 43 super marginals where they did n’t poll, which are assumed to be certain, still leaving them short of a majority.
Lord Mandelson has attacked the use of Lord Ashcroft’s Bearwood company to give money to the Conservatives, after the company was cleared today by the Electoral Commission of making donations illegally or improperly.
Asked whether he thought the use of this company was “dodgy”, he said “yes”.
“They were able to channel foreign-earned money … What we’re seeing is a non-dom who is seeking to channel funds through an obscure company which is very difficult to open up and see its accounts.”
24 Andy I know that but I do not believe the numbers in the case of Scotland even if they do suggest a 3.5% swing from Labour to Tory in the marginals.
54- The real problem is that all of the polls have been gradually trending against the Tories, so the obsession with YouGov is misplaced. The real question for Tories is “why are we losing ground?” Oh yes, and “what can we do about it?”
41- perhaps that is a factor, but I don’t think it would be significant. The only places where it would make much difference is in the key marginals where the Tories have been working very hard for a long time now, and I don’t think that a sudden drop in the marginals would be enough to explain the size and length of the dip in Tory poll ratings.
Our local (Labour) MP has been in the local papers pretty much non stop for about 2/3 months now and I imagine that every other MP has suddenly discovered an interest in local matters! This higher profile for incumbents might have affected things, but again I really can’t see it being at all significant. It is more likely due to the Tory leadership taking their eye of the ball for a prolongued period of time combined with the Labour spin op finally getting their act together.
49 Why did you choose an name that is an anagram of Dr Barbi or Bar Bird?
57 - Whether it’s more dodgy than ‘misfilling’ your application forms for loans is open for debate.
David Cameron = Neil kinnock?
Can somebody please explain to a statistical dunce what weighting actually is, and why it’s done?
As expected, that’s a hell of a reweigting of the Labour ID sample. 26% to 37%.
Lab 888 1266
Con 997 856
Lib Dem 315 274
Others 137 103
None 953 822
Don’t know 133 103
http://www.yougov.co.uk/extranets/ygarchives/content/pdf/C4-results-marginals_04.03.pdf
54- it’s amazing how many “swing voters” we get on here who appear to be partisans of one party or another
@57 Scott P - I think Lord M is flying a little to close to the sun legally with his latest rantings. Hope he has deep pockets.
55. I’ve never said anything is a part of a conspiracy. I do not think Kellner or anyone else is adjusting the polls because of their political preferences.
I can quite see why this is the case.
On the one hand, Labour have wrecked the economy, trashed our pensions, sold off all our gold, given away our money and our power to Brussels, mortgaged the future of our children and grandchildren, opened the door to unlimited immigration in the name of encouraging the multi-culti project, have given us a sociopath for a Prime Minister, encouraged electoral fraud and engaged in all sorts of dirty tricks that have debased our democracy.
On the other, Dave Cameron’s got quite a shiny face and the Tories have recieved some money from a bloke who lives in Belize.
For F*CK’S SAKE electorate! What more do the Labour Party have to do to convince you to get rid of them? Why are the Tories having to answer all these charges yet Labour are getting away with far more? We may not yet understand the detail of Tory policies; but we can see clearly that Labour policies are utterly disastrous in almost every respect. The Tories may be linked to a non-dom; but Labour are linked to three or four of them AND to the unions. The Tories may be slippery but Labour have been shown time and again to be liers and cheats of the basest sort. No-one’s expecting the electorate to LIKE the Tories, just to recognise the utter, utter awfulness of the Labour Party and the need to remove them from office, preferably so convincingly that they never rise again.
I despair, I really do.
As he rises through her apology, anybody else would surely know, he’s watching her go…
Bob Sykes, welcome to the ranks of the floating voter. Partisans are terribly offputting, as everyone except partisans realises.
By way of comparison, within the past 24 hours we have had a London marginals poll.
So according to this marginals poll, how many of those London Labour seats would fall to the Tories? If most then clearly both polls may be accurate but if a widely differing number then one of the polls must be badly wrong.
58. Easterross, to reiterate my earlier point, the Scottish figures are a subsample and therefore have a huge margin of error. But in any case, to assess how credible the Scottish figures are you’d first need to know what the 2005 baseline figures were in the Scottish constituencies polled - as far as I’m aware, that’s not listed anywhere. For all either of us know, Labour may have fallen from 50% to 39%.
I am trying to keep up to date with all the latest polling news. But have been abroad. All i keep hearing is dodgy You Gov weightings? Could someone bring me upto speed? What have YouGov changed?
My memory is that YouGov traditional over estimated Tory support by 1-2% if this is still the case Tories might sneak over the line. This poll puts to bed the idea of Labour being biggest party ? If my calculations are right on this poll the Tories would still have more seats than Labour/Libs combined
I am trying to keep up to date with all the latest polling news. But have been abroad. All i keep hearing is dodgy You Gov weightings? Could someone bring me upto speed? What have YouGov changed?
My memory is that YouGov traditional over estimated Tory support by 1-2% if this is still the case Tories might sneak over the line. This poll puts to bed the idea of Labour being biggest party ? If my calculations are right on this poll the Tories would still have more seats than Labour/Libs combined
627, 59 The problem is cuts. Cuts, to most people, are a BAD THING. Cuts means fewer police, lost jobs, fewer university places, lost contracts for private sector companies that rely on public sector work and so on.
The Tories have given the impression that they want bigger cuts than Labour but they haven’t said where. This is not surprising - Labour haven’t said how big their cuts will be or where they will fall. So it’s hardly surprising that the Tories haven’t been specific either. But they have been specific about wanting bigger cuts than Labour. Thus they are effectively promising that whatever Labour do in the way of cuts they will do more - however deep Labour’s cuts are Tory cuts will be deeper.
Unless you believe that bigger cuts can all be achieved by efficiency gains (and I am not aware of any economists who support that view) then bigger cuts simply means more pain. The Tories offer more pain than Labour - your job (if you work in the public sector), your company’s public sector work (if you work in the private sector), are more likely to be cut by the Tories than Labour. The idea that somewhow more pain sooner will mean less pain later through a quicker reduction in the fiscal deficit is counter-intuitive and not likely to be attractive to someone faced with the possibility of immediate redundancy.
This is the dilemma into which Tory economic policy has got itself.
The Economist:
‘Slouching towards Westminster’
- Devolved Scotland goes its own way
http://www.economist.com/world/britain/displaystory.cfm?story_id=15610081
64 - anonymous and dangerous - Have a look at http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/faq-weighting for a good introduction…
Dr Vincent Cable for PM is what I say!
Considering it was a Lab/Con marginals poll I was certainly surprised at the positive ratings for the Lib Dems.
Still think its brilliant that Cable is far more popular than Osborne
9, good analysis, Mr. Nabavi.
This smells of bullshit. All other marginals (Angus Reid and at least one other firm did it) had them better for the Tories.
47, quite. YouGov’s weightings (an issue not addressed by Mr. Kellner during his Q&A here recently) remain dubious.
59. “The real question for Tories is “why are we losing ground?” Oh yes, and “what can we do about it?””
It’s never too late for a change of leader.
B-But I thought the conservatives were a zillion points in front of Labour in the marginals according to a certain other pollster and that this was, according to the Tories here, the truthiest state of the parties out there?!
Is not the case? Is there other evidence available that shows that actually the Tories may be ahead in the marginals, but not by as much as they assume?!
74. The Economist has got its facts a bit wrong there: the Ipsos-MORI/Times poll on Monday put the SNP at 32% for Westminster voting intention. Not 30%.
72 - Indeed, James. But the other YouGov polls show huge Labour numbers in Scotland too. I suggest this is falsely narrowing the headline numbers.
Though I hope this is making CCHQ pull their goddamn fingers out, regardless.
65 Thats a 43% uplift to the Labour figure. That suggests they have lost 30% of their vote since the last election which is not that much different from what polls elsewhere are suggesting nationally.
The Tories need a swing of 6.1% to win all the target seats they need from Labour, so this poll - with a swing of 6.5% - actually exceeds that. The Tories would even win 4 seats outside their needed targets from Labour on the basis of this poll, in Tooting, Amber Valley, Barrow & Furness, and Gloucester.
It all depends on the LD/Con marginals. Peter Kellner suggests the Tories might have problems winning seats outside their top 10 targets in that category, which would include Torbay with a LD majority of 6.0%. That seems a bit unlikely to me.
70 Great song! Always nice to see the Doobie Brothers represented.
71 Easterross
I suspect it is all based on the same data, aggregated from the Yougov daily samples.
74 & 80.
… and Labour was at 34%, not 36%.
Not like The Economist to get basic facts wrong. Clearly it has gone down in the world since I last subscribed.
There is reference here to Kellner on tuesday afternoon. Where was he and where was the link to him. Why don’t we get a report on what he said - or it seems DIDN’T say ?
On this are the weightings compared with the last time changed ?
61
Dogo question. To nocsufe uyo?
79 - getting a 6.5% swing in the marginals when you need a 6.1% swing seems pretty good to me.
What’s Mike rule about polls you don’t like …. Hhmmm ….
81, you can’t blame CCHQ if YouGov decide 2010 is the Year of the Changed Weightings.
65, so a Labour vote counts almost 1.5 times, whereas a Tory only counts 0.8? That makes a Labour vote almost twice the size of a Tory one, if I’ve understood that correctly.
It sounds like a mountain of bullshit.
55.Same weighting?
5 more years of G Brown should just about destroy the Labour Party.
I note that Lord Mandelson is doing his best to make oleaginous an inadequate term in reference to him.
75 - thanks for that
78 - if that really did happen (bar death or disease to Mr Cameron), the Tories might as well stick a gun down their throat and pull the trigger.
FWIW, I expect campaigning in the GE proper to widen the gaps again
But I thought the squealing red team said that Mickey Ash is buying the marginals? Also, who wants to tell all those Lab MP’s who have been standing down that they’ve got it all wrong.
Or may be this poll isn’t to be relied on just yet…
Seems that the reputation of You Gov seems to rise and fall on this site depending on whether the Tory vote holds up. It has now become quite amusing to read the spurious ‘reasons’ behind the Tory dip. It is never the fault of Cameron but always down to that ‘cheating’ Kellner.
However if the Tories have a leader who is in essence a PR creation, sooner or later the great dormant beast of the British public will wake up and see through the false creation. They have ’switched off’ Cameron, and woken up from a bad dream. When you wake up from a nightmare it is good to see that Dr Gordon is still in charge, thank goodness for that!
64 A&D. Suppose you ask 100 people in a pub in manchester how they will vote. You get say C30/L50/LD20. Whilst that’s a sample of views you know that the Manchester pub has historically had a higher Labour support than has been typically exhibited by the rest of the country. So you weight (adjust) the responses to represent what you think the numbers you have sampled mean for the country as a whole. Your adjusted numbers for the country as a whole might finish up as 35/35/20.
Just how much debt-fuelled danger is Gordon risking with the UK economy? A reasonable question and the only place we can get hope to get objective answers is from the debt default insurance market place. Harriet claimed at PMQs yesterday that it is unpatriotic to ask questions about the British economy. As an Irishman that doesn’t apply to Guido.
Chile has just had an 8.8 on the richter scale earthquake, looting and rioting are commonplace. Even so, U.S. investors still prefer Chilean government debt to UK government debt as measured by CDS rates. Do you get how bad things are?
http://order-order.com/2010/03/03/even-after-earthquake-chilean-debt-safer-than-uk-debt/
45. Andy, he is probably right, you have to take into account the potentially large drift in the remaining Labour vote, most of which will in almost probability go to the Lib Dems. This tend to be forgotten in the straight Con/Lib Dem swing.
Cookie - but the reason the Tories aren’t heading for an overall majority (according to Kellner) is a lack of progress in Lib Dem targets. Given the Tories were lead by Michael Howard the last time and the Lib Dems had the Iraq War issue to help them, that is saying something. Just look at the figures for most popular Chancellor. Cable is miles ahead of Osborne. Can you imagine that a few years ago?
86 SD
I agree Stuart; I cancelled my subscription about 6 years ago when it became Alisdair Campbell weekly.
fpt. 507. that explains skynews and murdoch press, ugov polls perhaps? clash of the big guns, both supporting the conservatives? mmm
ot. conversation with a close friend (very leftwing, proper pc etc) who works for tower hamlets council, my friend found themself with a dilema, a labour voter throu and through, though not impressed with brown (i have tried my best to explain how cr*p labour have been on the economy,etc, only to be told “thats not what is important” ..heyho) anyway,
my friend said “i dont have anyone to vote for”
(i was shocked) “i cant vote labour” i was all gleeful, vote conservative then, i said hopefully, the look i got said it all, worth a try hehe, went through the the other parties, all a fat no, i hold my nose and ask “why cant you vote labour”
apparently there was a dispatches program on 4 this week re extreme islam infiltration through labour party, my friend said that there had been internal emails pre showing of program and after, one of which asking for resignations within towerhamlets council, sadly i did not watched show, nor fully understood the link with emails, but, something has really spooked/un-nerved a life long labour supporter… we then got into a heated debate re moderate islam, my fault i suggested they should be doing more to out these extremist, im like a red rag to this lefty hehe, so im still very puzzled as to why ? very puzzled
84 - Next week’s poll will be brought to you by Long Train Running.
Last thread, 436
“What Lord Ashcroft has done is put his own money where his mouth is in creating crimestoppers to cut crime, in buying VCs to put on display for free for the good of the nation out of respect for the fallen and he directly contributes, with his own money, for the good of this nation. He has donated more money to good courses than would have been taken in tax, and therefore has seen that the money has been better spent than if it had been voluntarily donated to the treasury.
We need a thousand Ashcrofts!”
Even somebody with the limited social interaction of a Tory should realise that not everybody can afford to be a billionaire philanthropist.
Ashcroft can also afford to act out his pretensions of nobility because he actually pays less as a proportion of income than ordinary working Britons on modest incomes.
Most Britons also do not change their nationality/abuse legal loop holes to avoid paying their fair share of tax.
30 Richard Nabavi
Don’t be ridiculous. No-one is claiming that YouGov are ‘manufacturing’ the result. We’re simply trying to understand what is going on.
Richard, it is hard to get away from the implication or possibility that YouGov are ‘manufacturing’ the result, when all their polls for News International have given rise to legitimate questions on their sampling and weighting methodology.
This particularly applies as it is widely believed that YouGov have changed their methods in preparation for the New International and we have noted inconsistencies with YouGov polls published in 2009.
You are quite right to say the statistical analysts on pb.com are “simply trying to understand what is going on”. So far we have identified symptoms that raise questions rather than causes that give answers.
We really need to advance our position on pb.com to a consensus definition of these ’symptoms’ and of the questions that should be answered by YouGov.
Can we pool the analysis of the polls already carried out on pb.com then start drawing up an agreed set of questions for putting to YouGov?
We should be aware that it is not just YouGov’s credibility and integrity at risk here: it is also that of pb.com.
I think it is time for us all to ‘piss or get off the pot’.
69
Good parody of 49. Well done.
Christins, P Kellner did a live Q&A here on Tues afternoon, started about 3pm IIRC, the thread should still be there. Oh I would suggest reading the thread immediately before too.
Did anyone see the graph on Newsnight last night?
http://order-order.com/2010/03/04/graphic-example-of-media-influence/
59 S and S we Tories know the polls have been closing and no doubt David Cameron and team have planned the campaign carefully and none of us on PB are privy to that information.
However when YouGov take a poll result which shows a 10 point Tory lead then alter it Tory -4, Labour +4 and report it as a 2% lead, we are right to ask why. Then when the head honcho of YouGov while present here on Tuesday afternoon bluntly refuses to answer straight forward requests to explain his company’s reasons for changing their weightings, why should we not question YouGov’s behaviour.
99 - he’s saying that a seat like Torbay, with only a 6% LD majority, is more likely to be held by the LDs than won by the Tories. That sort of claim needs evidence in my view, not just to be based on an opinion. Ditto with Sutton & Cheam, LD maj = 6.2%.
100 - Yes but how many other partisan hacks can get on all the news shows masquerading as an expert? How many other people can be so mediocre but seen as a some sort of delphic oracle. Cable is good at self-promotion that is all.
87.I asked him about weightings he said it’s kept under review but in his opinion weightings were not that important.
The Economist: ‘Campaigning in Perth’
‘The weakest link?’
- Tories and Scot Nats get down and dirty
http://www.economist.com/world/britain/displaystory.cfm?story_id=15610065
That last statement is untrue. Prior to 1965 there was no such thing as a Conservative Party in Scotland.
Yougov are getting such a bad reputation by attempting to flood the market like this, they are analogus to Rasmussen in the US who do their utmost to drive the media by their polling. Kellner acknowledge that they underpoll lib dems in comparison and they are clearly trying to affect the narrative by suggesting that this is the true position through pure force of number of their polls.
I suppose that’s market forces but what fool would bet on figures perverted in this way?
47 jsfl
It’s certainly a striking feature of these unweighted polls that YouGov has no difficulty finding Conservative voters. To have this observation unreflected in recent final results is counter-intuitive, to say the least.
I’m afraid these YouGov results are best described as the Company’s views of UK opinion, rather than opinion polls.
98 I think we’ve basically gone bust already, we and the markets just haven’t cottoned on to it yet. The only chink of light has been the possibility that the Conservatives would get in with a thumping majority sufficient to be able to absorb the damage really heavy cuts would bring.
I’ve been wondering why there is so much hysterical posting by the extreme lefties (tim Benm Gabble etc.) over the last few days. I’ve suddenly realised why.
They’re scared stiff.
Not because of a Conservative victory at the GE but what will happen afterwards.
Labour have spent the last 13 years attacking the right and doing all they can to destroy the conservatives as a viable party. It shows how good they are at this that the conservatives are in a position to probably win the next election.
They know the Conservatives will not forget and will redress the balance. Unlike labour and the left, the Conservatives are ruthlessly efficient in carrying out their goals.
This is why the lefties are so hysterical.
69. Cookie
On the one hand, Labour have wrecked the economy,
Thatcher did that.
trashed our pensions
The City did that.
sold off all our gold
Sold off SOME of the Gold. And in any case, so what?
given away our money and our power to Brussels
Thatcher signed the Single European Act and Major the Maastricht Treaty. Both much more far reaching than any Treaties Labour have signed.
Besides, the EU is going to be propping Britain up in the next few years.
mortgaged the future of our children and grandchildren
Never mind the fact that spending now has saved perhaps 600K jobs. And debt overhang is not new. We only recently paid off our war dues to the Americans. Anyone notice that as they were growing up?
opened the door to unlimited immigration in the name of encouraging the multi-culti project
Xenophobic nonsense.
have given us a sociopath for a Prime Minister
What a thoroughly nasty thing to say about someone you’ve never even met. I think a comment like this reflects more on the person making the comment than it does the target of the piece. No wonder you’re a Tory.
encouraged electoral fraud
Evidence please? I laugh at Tories opposing methods to encourage more people to vote. Some democrats they are!
and engaged in all sorts of dirty tricks that have debased our democracy.
Oh get over yourself. Your lot started it. Remember Bernard Ingham anyone? The Tory Press?
According to Coffee House this poll reports:
the Tories: 58 percent of people think it’s time for a change of government, and the Conservatives are trusted more on the economy.
Haven’t time at the moment to check this out.
@102 tisfedup the dispatches programme with still be able through catchup, on demand or 4player.
113. “He looks reflective:”
Translation - struggles to remember his lines, pauses, looks into the middle distance, centres himself…
I presume all other questions in the YouGov poll are also after weighting.
By way of comparison, the most recent ICM poll in Jan 2010 of marginals in the 4-10% range had Labour 2005 voters weighted down from 30% to 27%.
http://www.icmresearch.co.uk/pdfs/2010_jan_notw_marginals_poll.pdf
112, …. I know he ducked the weightings issue (I asked about it too) but don’t recall that. Weightings are vital, they give the headline figure (obviously).
47, so, it this a 13 point lead down to a 2 point lead then? That’s just bollocks.
It’s as mad as saying a 13 point lead is really 24 points.
I am sorry, I see I need to use bold to prove this is true, so once again……
According to Coffee House this poll reports:
the Tories: 58 percent of people think it’s time for a change of government, and the Conservatives are trusted more on the economy.
Am I all grown up now like Gabble and tim-o-thicket?
broken sleazy tories on the slide.
Thanks Ashcroft.
It must be said that the switches in the numbers that Richard highlights suggest, if nothing else, that YouGov need to get some more people in their panel. If they have to change the responses to this extent, they have a seriously odd panel.
114. It would obviously be better if there was a broader range of polls, but if YouGov weren’t doing this, we’d be moaning about the scarcity of polls in general.
82 Yes that’s similar to what we’re seeing around the country though, the Labour vote has collapsed, but it doesn’t seem to be showing up in these Yougov polls. Kellner should explain what’s going on or the Polling Council has to step in and ask why the methodology has changed so significantly so close to an election. It wouldn’t be much of a problem if they were just one voice among many then it wouldn’t matter, but Yougov are setting the narrative.
Charles Walker, one of the three Conservative members of the Public Administration Committee who are boycotting the special hearing on Lord Ashcroft’s peerage, explains his decision to PoliticsHome
Earlier today, at a meeting of the Public Administration Committee, a one-day hearing into the circumstances surrounding Lord Ashcroft’s peerage was scheduled for Thursday March 18th. Charles Walker is one of the Tory members of the committee who have agreed to boycott the hearing.
Mr Walker told PoliticsHome that he thought the hearing would become “incredibly heated” and that, weeks before a general election, it was not appropriate.
“I completely respect the right of the committee to call whatever witnesses it is minded to call,” he said.
“However I am comfortable with my decision not to attend the meeting on 18th March as I believe, while Dr Tony Wright will do everything in his powers to chair it in a fair and even fashion, there is an obvious danger that so close to a general election the questioning could become overly partisan.
“To be fair to the committee, we have been looking at the Lords appointments process for a number of years and the committee has had some very very harsh criticisms for the procedures that both Tony Blair and Gordon Brown used.
“It is two weeks before an election. It could get incredibly heated. Frankly I dont want to fall out with my colleagues on the committee, and I will find other things to do with my time on the 18th.”
97 - thanks again.
Understand it a bit better now, and therefore understand why the appoplexy of taking off/adding on 4%.
Got to say, Labour losing 95 seats to the Tories sounds pretty significant, which makes me think that people have made up their minds already, but still debating whether to have a hung parliament or an outright Tory majority
Tag trolling tonight, I see.
Psychologically, Labour supporters are in a good place right now. Until recently they had resigned themselves to being dead and buried. Now, the smaller gap in the polls has given them a glimmer of hope while discomfiting the Tories. Revised expectations are the key to happiness.
It’s quite similar to the Tory 2005 campaign which everyone who worked on it enjoyed. Starting from a low base, we we got our act together, landed some blows and had a sense of moving in the right direction.
Didn’t stop Labour winning though just as I doubt all the recent excitement will stop the Tories winning on 6th May.
In their hearts, Labour supporters still expect to lose but now there’s something to do other than despair, even if, for some of them, it’s just tweeting and trolling.
Assuming that there are only the 3 Scottish seats in this sample that I identified above, then the comparison between 2005 and this poll is
Party, 2005, Poll, Diff
Lab, 40%, 39%, -1%
Con, 30%, 23%, -7%
LD, 15%, 15%, nc
SNP, 11%, 21%, 10%
Other, 3%, 2%, -1%
127, ha, it reminds me of Labour’s postal voting. Legitimacy matters less than accuracy, according to some lefties.
I can’t trust a firm that turns a 13 point lead into a 2 point lead. It’s bollocks. I look forward to seeing what other pollsters show us.
All of this intense scrutiny and condemnation of YouGov is like criticizing the beeping smoke alarm when the house is on fire. “Take out the batteries, I want to go back to sleep!”
There are two very good reasons why Peter Kellner cannot be “making up” You Gov results for the Labour Party: the recently resigned CEO of You Gov is a certain Nadhim Zahawi, now the Conservative Candidate for Stratford on Avon, and the new replacement CEO is Stefan Shakespeare, who used to work for Lord Archer and CCHQ.
Now, if they were fabricating results unfavorable to the Lib Dems, then there is your conspiracy theory all ready for you!
YouGov’s new methodology may or may not be sound but the lack of any non YouGov polls for comparison purposes for this length of time must be highly unusual in a run-in period to an election. Are the newspapers who usually commission them dramatically cutting back in these recessionary times?
Really what’s the fuss about ?
It simply says all opposition parties have given Labour time to get it’s act together; and they’ve done it well with limited resources.
When Labour where in the mid 20s last year all the opposition parties didn’t profit from their weakness for their own reasons.
Tories - pulled their punches as they were afraid to unseat Brown, their biggest electoral asset.
LibDems - didn’t have the killer instinct to pick up disaffected labour votes and are happier being the junior party in a coalition anyway
Others - didn’t hold on to disaffected Labour votes as they don’t have the infrastructure to do so and are not getting any publicity. Only exception to that is the SNP and I’m sure Stuart oldnat and Easterross can explain why SNP isn’t further ahead in Scotland
Since last summer the people really opposing Brown have been inside the Labour party which culminated in the failed January Putsch. In that time the party has caught it’s breath and recovered some ground.
My view is the vote is soft however, voters have yet to look over the cliff and see what lies before them. The smaller parties will recover during the election and steal votes from the flanks of all 3 big parties who are entranced by Middle England.
Why the hell are CCHQ and Ashcroft not coming out with all guns blazing, or is it just that it’s not being reported? God help the BEEB if the Tories get in.
I’ve updated the header
This poll shows that, despite all the problems the Tories have had this year, they’re still on course to get the swing they need in Lab/Con marginals. They need 6.1% and this poll shows 6.5%.
What they need to do now is to make sure they can win target numbers 11-22 from the LDs, (assuming they can win numbers 1-10 of course).
Of course there are some LD seats they’ll find very difficult to win, such as Westmorland and Camborne. But the swing to Labour in this poll would given them a few seats beyond Sefton Central at number 117 which would compensate for that.
I suspect that “Peter Kellner” is really an alias of Peter Mandelson, that “Kirsty Wark” is the pseudonym of Harriet Harman, that “Nick Robinson” is actually Alastair Darling and that the “BBC, Sky, YouGov, and every paper except the Sun are really just Gordon Brown in disguise. But then I am barking mad …
On weightings, this is what UK Polling Report has to say:
“YouGov weight to proportions of CON 26%, LAB 32%, LDEM 12%, Other 3%, None of them 24.5%, Don’t know 2.5%. In the YouGov’s 2005 polling only 72% of people who said they identified with the Labour party actually said they intended to vote Labour – 13% said they were voting Lib Dem and 9% said they were abstaining. Equally, those 25.5% of people who said they didn’t identify with any party are not a bunch of non-voters, many of them do vote, but are genuine floating voters. I occassionally see people compare the figure YouGov weight Labour party ID to and the figure other companies weight Labour recalled vote to and draw the errorneous conclusion that YouGov are weighting Labour more highly. This is wrong – the two figures aren’t comparable.”
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/faq-weighting
132. “ha, it reminds me of Labour’s postal voting. Legitimacy matters less than accuracy, according to some lefties.”
Did you get the wrong number, MD? Can’t see how that relates to anything I posted.
126 David Roe - It’s more than that, it’s the fact that, at first sight at least, the profile of the respondents has changed since last year. There might of course be a very good reason for that, but last year they made only relatively modest adjustments to the raw figures.
See, Gabble posts in bold and so it must be true. The Tories are on the slide and Labour are in the sandpit. God knows where the LibDems are.
The SNP are easy to find. They are on the magic roundabout.
125. Back from your interview on SKY MandyGabs?
was it kellner and you gov that started this hung parliment thread?
34, 55, Tim
I appreciate your point, but is this necessarily indicative of the GE vote? After all, Callaghan was more popular than Thatcher, and do I remember correctly someone here saying that in some polls Howard was more popular than Blair?
134, so why are Labour being increased from 26% to 37%?
Why has a Tory lead of 13 points evaporated to 2 points?
Why do the headline figures bear scarcely a passing resemblance to raw data?
It stinks.
13. runnymede - “How many Labour-held genuine Lab-Con marginals are there in Scotland? I can only think of a few.”
Very, very, very few indeed. The only Lab/Con contests I can think of are:
- Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock (but it is not marginal)
- Central Ayrshire (but it is not marginal
- Dumfries & Galloway
- Dumfriesshire, C & T (but it is not Labour-held)
- East Renfrewshire
- Edinburgh South (but the Lib Dems are going to “come through the middle” in that one)
- Edinburgh South West
- North Ayrshire & Arran (but the SNP are probably a lot closer than the Tories)
- Stirling
So, did YouGov only conduct their fieldwork in D & G, East Renf, Edin SW, and Stirling? If so, then SNP at 21% is a breathtakingly good SNP performance.
130 Colin thats a fair point remember a sky news poll at the start of the election campaign in 2005 saying Conservatives were level with Labour on 36%.
124 That second one is less clear cut though.
The results list Cable as best for Chancellor (with Osborne behind Darling), and Brown best leader out of recession
128.I had some respect for Tony Wright before this, it’s nothing more than a desperate attempt by Labour at keeping this issue alive. You’d think with all the success they’d had in making Britain boom at a rate of a full 0.3% growth, or the success in destroying the taliban & bringing democracy to Afghanistan they’d prefer to trumpet those triumphs. On second thoughts….more Ashcroft posters please…
9 Richard Nabavi March 4th, 2010 at 5:11 pm
Excellent analysis Richard.
We still see no rational justification from Yougov as to why the changes in weighting have gone from (percentages not voter share %)
-4%C and +12%Lab to today’s -12%C and +18%LAB.
It just looks plain wrong.
139 Andy JS, assuming that the poll is accurate, and the votes are going to fall as predicted, which do you think would be easier for CCHQ to acheive - getting the next ten off the Lib Dems or getting over #117 in the Labour Target list? would they have to eploy a strategy against one or the other?
104: “Most Britons also do not change their nationality/abuse legal loop holes to avoid paying their fair share of tax.”
Lord A has not changed his nationality.
Nor, as you put it ‘abused legal loop holes’.
He has the quite properly defined status of a non-dom, something shared by many including umpteen Labour donors.
Non-Dom status is not a ‘loop-hole’ but a properly defined status that recognises the fluidity of earnings from people who may live in various locations around the world with various income streams to match. Without it no international business executive, university academic, opera singer, pop musician, actor, Premier League footballer or anyone else working or living across national boundaries would bother spending any time in the UK. With the result that there would be absolutely NO tax receipts to the UK exchequer.
As for a ‘fair share of tax’. There is no such thing. There is the tax due by law and, in the absence of any HMRC action, we must assume he has paid that.
There is certainly nothing ‘fair’ about being expected to pay tax that is under the HMRC rules not liable to tax which is what you seem to imply.
Of course, there is the general point about income tax receipts by income bands. The top 10% of earners, of which Lord A is certainly one, account for about 50% of ALL income tax receipts.
As someone in that band but with an income well below six figures, I certainly don’t feel it ‘fair’ that when I walk into a room of nine other income tax payers in a genuinely accurate sample of the tax-paying public that I am paying as much tax as all the other nine put together.
142, wasn’t accusing you of being a postal lefty
I was just referring to your point about few polls, and we’d complain about that. I’d rather have few, but accurate polls, then many that seem to have dubious weighting.
54 The scale of the poll lead reduction is relevant for panic-stopping reasons - so i think the yougov weighting argument is valid for that. Apart from that though you’re right, *why* the lead has narrowed is far more important.
105 - ‘This particularly applies as it is widely believed that YouGov have changed their methods in preparation for the New International’
I’ve always thought opinion polls should come with version numbers. If ICM had Labour at 35 and then YouGov had them at 38 only an idiot would say that Labour had gone up in the polls by 3 points. Yet just because different methodologies have the same company label stuck on them we’re quite happy to go along with the same error. Having the polls named YouGov 1.8, ICM v7 etc. would make life a lot easier.
Incidentally if you check the net weighting of the Party ID’s in this poll (excluding None and Don’t know) it gives you:
Lab 51%
Con 34%
LD 11%
Others 4%
Full weighting is:
Lab 37%
Con 25%
LD 8%
Others 3%
None 24%
Don’t Know 3%
Raw unweighted figures (net) are:
Con 43%
Lab 38%
LD 13%
Others 6%
Full Unweighted Figures Are:
Con 29%
Lab 26%
Libdem 9%
Others 4%
None 28%
Don’t Know 4%
So on Party ID there is an 11% from swing (net) Con to Lab caused by the weighting. The other thing to note is that the full raw figures are not far off what the last BSAS survey suggested (C32 L25 LD 9).
127 - Better to have fewer polls rather than one pollster flooding us, it just perverts the markets. Yougov will be happy now with the income but they are incredibly exposed given that the media narrative is being driven by them in this way.
Saying what Kellner said ‘that they can get the lib dem numbers right by the end’ is just not good enough, he can twist his figures all he likes to get the final result pretty close but that does not excuse perverting the betting markets in such a way beforehand.
141. Nick, The You Gov figures I have been comparing to other pollsters Labour recalled vote % are not the 32% discussed there, but the newly introduced sub-set called Loyal Labour ID which they hard weight to 26%, and as confirmed by PK, this category is explicitly for those who voted Labour in 2005.
ICM, Populus & ComRes weight their sample such that Labour recalled vote is 22%.
114. Little point James, MORI, ComRes and ICM’S latest polls are all roughly in line with YouGov.
What we really need is more Angus Reid polls!!
158 Robusticus, that’s a good idea - and all canvassing, by all political parties, should be regarded as v1.0
And no-one should ever buy the prototype of any software or product!
What’s with all the bolding?!?
I THINK CAPS ARE BETTER! YEAH CAPS ARE BETTER THAN BOLD YEAH I WIN NOW!!!!
Seriously guys, making inane statements in bold doesn’t make them any less inane…
157- Far more important than the current specific party standings, though, is the undeniable closeness of the race and the negative trend for the Tories. Given that there’s still two months to go before the election, these two factors alone should have the Tories very concerned.
162, Should have referred to 127.
I heard Kellner on PM. Not once was it mentioned he is married to someone in the Labour party!
He was really quite brazenly biased, speculating that floating voters would probably be turned off by Tory sleaze etc. To be fair the BBC correspondents did passingly mention Lord Paul and electioneering was suggested as an explanation for the whole saga.
Get attacking on the economy Tories!!!
No tax please, we’re not British.
165, from YouGov it’s a trend driven as much (or more) by altered weightings than an actual change in the public mood.
163 Augustus - And policies. Then Cameron could have said ‘Ah, that was the public beta of Recognising Marriage in the Tax System. We’ll be releasing v1.0 shortly, with some bug-fixes.’
There are two very good reasons why Peter Kellner cannot be “making up” You Gov results for the Labour Party: the recently resigned CEO of You Gov is a certain Nadhim Zahawi, now the Conservative Candidate for Stratford on Avon, and the new replacement CEO is Stefan Shakespeare, who used to work for Lord Archer and CCHQ.
Augustus Carp March 4th, 2010 at 5:56 pm
There are probably a lot of people who would see those facts as proof of a problem. The Tory has gone but look who replaced him.
I suggest you look at the strange defense Shakespeare made for the ConHome non-representative poll of ‘members’. All on ConHome to read.
I for one would say that YouGov are doing this rejigging on purpose, but to what purpose I do not know. It is all redolent of the COMedy RESults rejigging.
Perhaps these numbers are accurate. Perhaps not. I am agnostic. I am still 70% sure that on the day after the election there will be a Tory government.
44. TGOHF - “… take the good people of Glenrothes for example - had they believed the pollsters they would have an SNP MP by now - instead true democracy spoke and Labour were returned.”
Has anyone found that marked-up register yet?
Hmmm… funny that.
And even funnier: has anyone seen Rod Hull and Emu since that by-election?
http://www.alba.org.uk/images/lindsayroy2008.jpg
49. bribrad
Hear, hear.
168 bribrad
I find your attacks on indian billionaires somewhat racist
164. Max. Clearly you do not understand the further devices to portray irony on the Internet that are available.
See I can use italics too.
Watching 6pm news on BBC it’s clear BBC are going all out to get Ashcrost. I can understand The Sun, The Daily Mail, The Mirror being able to go after a target relentlessly until they get their man, but the BBC?
My view is give them Ashcroft, let the noble Lord declare that for the good of the party he will step down as Deputy Party Chairman. Cameron’s new law about NonDoms can then be introduced later this year, Lord Ashcroft would return to a heroes welcome at the party conference.
BBC 6 O Clock News was straightforward Labour Party propaganda, complete with graphic of Ashcroft wearing a stetson with ‘I love Belize’ on it.
If Labour declares that something is an issue, BBC News obliges.
Good report on the BBC 6 o’clock News re Ashcroft.
Newsreader. “The Conservatives are in the clear”
EC spokesperson. “There are no further questions to answer”
Liam Fox. “To pursue this further looks like a witchhunt”
Cue Mandy…
I don’t have a problem with YouGov inventing the category of “Disloyal Labour” voters. It seems a wise thing to do. They are trying to track a group of voters who would definitely have been Labour in 2005, but rebelled because of strong feelings on Iraq.
However, they don’t appear to be equally concerned about a corresponding category for the Conservatives - “Apathetic Tories”. i.e. Tory voters who gave up disheartened in 2001 and 2005 because a Labour Victory seemed inevitable. They probably would have voted - and made it into YouGov’s weightings - if they thought that the Tories stood a chance of winning. These people have been returning to the Tory fold in recent years, to judge from friends and acquaintances.
Please tell me if I have got the wrong end of the stick, and YouGov actually DO track these voters somehow.
149 Stuart Dickson
Only East Renfrewshire, Stirling & D&G match the criteria - hence my 131 above.
I have a feeling that they include Edinburgh South as well - even though the Tories are in 3rd place - if so then the comparison with 2005 becomes
Party, 2005, Poll, Diff
Lab, 39%, 39%, nc
Con, 29%, 23%, -6%
LD, 19%, 15%, -4%
SNP, 10%, 21%, 11%
Other, 3%, 2%, -1%
165. Stars and Stripes. What is even more worrying from a Conservative perspective, given the momentum, is that there could well be three months and not two months before the next election.
169. Morris D
by altered weightings than an actual change in the public mood.
Not quite. It seems to be that the weightings haven’t changed when the underlying structure of the sample (the public mood if you like has). Basically the argument is that Yougov are using out of date weightings….
134 Augustus Carp
Your assumption is wrong. If YouGov’s polls for News International are “making up” results, it is not to support Labour.
176 chris
I suspect if the LA stood down he would be in a much better position to sue the arse off some of his critics. You don’t really need to be looking over your shoulder every 10 minutes fighting legals in the middle of the GE.
176 If Ashcroft stood down, then Hauge would be next in the firing line. No way are the tories going to allow that to happen.
180. Thanks oldnat!
Crikey!! An 11 point SNP increase, from 10% in 2005 to 21% in 2010.
So much for the “squeeze”! In Scotland, it is not the SNP who will be getting squeezed, but the wee parties: the Cons and Lab Lites.
The witchhunt is the (one day”meeting on 18/3/10. WFT are they going to find out in ONE DAY. I do hope LOrd Ashcroft sues for some of the more outlandish statement made “outside” the HOC today.
The reason that any labour partisan going on about Ashcroft is worthless?
Cash for honours.
Here they were guilty up to their necks yet twisted out of it. They have no right to even think about accusing others given their wholesale corruption on this. The reckoning may take time but it wil come.
Genuinely interesting poll. Sad to see people question the methodology. Really doubt they would if the result had been more to their liking. Perhaps I am unfair, sadly I doubt it. Oh Well! Hope they’re not betting along the same lines.
187 - Mandelson should be top of that sort of list. His comments were despicable today.
185.But with him gone, the issue would be less toxic, and Lord Ashdown could be talked about in past tense.
189, I’ve questioned outlier polls (usually dismissing them as rogues) on both sides. The 28pt lead was fun but utter nonsense. This poll smells like the latter.
154 - the strategy would be to hope for a bit of each, not just try to win either LD or more Lab seats.
The Tories’ top 117 targets consist of 90 Labour seats, 24 LD, 2 SNP, 1 KHHC.
So this marginals poll shows the Tories are on course to win 95 Labour seats, 5 more than strictly needed according to the target list. Those 5 could obviously help to compensate for not winning some of the LD or SNP targets.
They probably won’t win both Angus and Perth - just one of those is more likely.
And 5 of the 6 seats in Cornwall are targets from the LDs. They’d be lucky to win more than 2 of them I think.
This story has been distilled down to the questions about what Cameron and Hague knew, a very vague question that neither have to answer. Mandelson’s trying his best to try and escalate it, but it’s not happening. The tories have begun to attack back by asking about Lord Paul and why he was made a privy councillor. Harman’s little rant during business questions made he look even more stupid than her implosion at yesterday PMQ’s.
Today’s YouGov marginals poll must make Alistair Darling look pretty damn safe in Edinburgh SW. Surely Shadsy’s price of 4/6 on a LAB HOLD has got to be very good value?
And the more I see of Cllr Jason Rust, the less impressed I am.
Dig this photo!
http://www.edinburgh.gov.uk/internet/council/council_business/councillor_database/councillors/a08_cllr_jason_rust_(con)
The lad is a walking definition of the word “glaikit”.
A point was raised recently and I don’t think anyone confirmed it, can anyone do so?
All polls in the UK are of registered voters aren’t they, they don’t poll those who say that they are not registered to vote?
I’ve never been polled but, can anyone who has been polled, say if they have to confirm their voter registration before taking the poll?
I have just complained to the BBC about News at Six. They are so far up Labours a*se that it’s unbelievable.
195. broken link
Here is Cllr Jason “Glaikit” Rust:
http://tinyurl.com/ydb84on
Has he just got out of bed?
187. The tories can make this investigation out to be witch hunt and have been pushing that line today, the more Labour push it the more it looks politically motivated.
199, hopefully you’re right. Plus, the Government is too busy smearing and witch hunting to run the country.
189. Jonathan.
As far as I am concerned Yougov’s methodology is flawed. Their weightings are out-dated IMO. Now that doesn’t change if it is a 5 point Conservative lead or a 20 point Conservative lead. So if I praise the Yougov polls before they adjust their weightings noticeably please feel free to call me a hypocrite. If I am wrong then I am wrong but that is my view.
The only pleasure I will get out of an increasing lead in Yougov polls is the knowledge that it will likely shut up the more hysterical elements of the left on here (and in that I am not referring to you of course).
199 I would like to hear Nick Robinson’s take tomorrow. If he still pumps the questions to answer line, it will become clear (to me at least) where he has laid his bed.
I wonder if this will become an election issue in a certain seat?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/west_yorkshire/8549577.stm
193. Andy JS - “They probably won’t win both Angus and Perth - just one of those is more likely.”
Err… what is your definition of “likely”?
Please note: bookies and punters think that the Tories are unlikely to win either.
197 Lavandula
There is a longstanding pattern with the BBC news, with exceptions aplenty, where the 6 is spun slightly Labour’s favour, and the 10 is spun slightly in Conservative favour.
It is really quite bad practice and does very little for “balance”.
It’s at moment like these that you see the true character of some of our leading politicians. Wright using a parliamentary committee, supposedly non-partisan to launch hearings for…a day…on the issue. Johnson calling Ashcroft “unpatriotic” - makes no reference to Labour nondoms. Most breath-taking of all Mandelson complaining about ethics violations.
Luckily for the country at least Damian McBride isn’t in Downing St or no doubt the story would be “Why are tories taking money from a man who eats babies” - a special report by Nick Robinson.
GeoffH
“As for a ‘fair share of tax’. There is no such thing. There is the tax due by law and, in the absence of any HMRC action, we must assume he has paid that. / There is certainly nothing ‘fair’ about being expected to pay tax that is under the HMRC rules not liable to tax which is what you seem to imply. / Of course, there is the general point about income tax receipts by income bands. The top 10% of earners, of which Lord A is certainly one, account for about 50% of ALL income tax receipts. / As someone in that band but with an income well below six figures, I certainly don’t feel it ‘fair’ that when I walk into a room of nine other income tax payers in a genuinely accurate sample of the tax-paying public that I am paying as much tax as all the other nine put together.”
Ashcroft pays tax on a fraction of his genuine income, estimated to save him £13 million a year.
It is obvious to all that his tax contribution must be less than 50% or he wouldn’t bother with the complication. So yes, he pays less as a proportion of income than other people certainly than those in the 50% bracket but who are not wealthy enough to be able to afford the lawyers and international arrangements Ashcroft can.
An interesting news article from Belize:
http://www.morningstaronline.co.uk/index.php/news/content/view/full/87559
“Belizean trade unionists have called on top Tory donor Lord Ashcroft to reinvest a portion of his personal £1,100 million fortune in the developing country if it transpires that some of it came from his business interests there.
The Christian Workers Union (CWU) , an affiliate of the International Trade Union Confederation, asked British sister union the GMB to ascertain whether any of the £6m that Lord Ashcroft has pumped into the Tory election campaign in marginal seats has been sucked out of Belize.
CWU general secretary Antonio Gonzalez said: “We know that Lord Ashcroft has a lot of business interests in Belize and there is every likelihood that some of his personal fortune comes from these investments.
“We would be very surprised to hear that he is using money made in Belize for political reasons in the UK,” Mr Gonzalez declared.
He said that money made in Belize should be reinvested there.
“Belize is a developing country and needs all the genuine investment it can get,” Mr Gonzalez observed.
The GMB, which pointed out that there was no evidence that Lord Ashcroft’s £6m handout was made from taxable income in Britain, challenged the Tory peer and Tory leader David Cameron to come clean and say how much of it derived from the exploitation of Belizean workers.
GMB general secretary Paul Kenny said that his union agrees “with the Belize workers who say that money made in Belize should be reinvested there.”
196
There was a comment yesterday about registration to vote. Off the top of my head I think over 50% of 18-24’s are not registered to vote according to Electoral Commission figs (actual fig IIRC was 56% and IIRC 31% of ethnic minorities.
Which, if any pollster is factoring in these figures.
I would rather have a Labour hung Parliament than a Tory hung Parliament.
Much better to let Labour take the flak for the crap that will be coming in the next few years.
Aren’t discussions about opinion polls boring?
By the way, the answer to my question is ‘yes,’ just in case you didn’t know.
Ranks up there with watching football, listening to wine buffs and weeding the garden.
203 - Bookies and punters have got it wrong before. I think Perth in particular will be very close.
I’ve never thought we’d gain Edinburgh SW although I think we have a very good chance in Edinburgh south.
HAHAHAHAHAHA
177.BBC 6 O Clock News was straightforward Labour Party propaganda, complete with graphic of Ashcroft wearing a stetson with ‘I love Belize’ on it.
If Labour declares that something is an issue, BBC News obliges.
by Colin March 4th, 2010 at 6:14 pm
178.Good report on the BBC 6 o’clock News re Ashcroft.
Newsreader. “The Conservatives are in the clear”
EC spokesperson. “There are no further questions to answer”
Liam Fox. “To pursue this further looks like a witchhunt”
Cue Mandy…
by Scott P March 4th, 2010 at 6:15 pm
Genius pure genius!
It looks from the data tables that just 3 marginal seats in Scotland are included in the poll and as Oldnat posts upthread the only party to have lost support in these 3 seats IF this poll is accurate is the Conservatives . It would also appear that no Welsh seats are included as they have picked up zero Plaid supporters .
It is somewhat surprising that given Yougov have a supposed total panel sixe of 300,000 they cannot select a more representative set of respondents than they did for this poll . They oversampled Males over 55 as they always do but this time by an even more massive margin than usual 717 v the weighted figure of 470 .
You have to hand it to brown he is an expert at media manipulation, he has filled the media with his toadies and they will say what he wants on command.
Any objective reporter can see that Paul and Mittal are at least as bad as Ashcroft, except of course ascroft created crimestoppers and Mittal closed a steel plant.
but as I say Labour are at least as guilty of having non-doms, but they are getting of scot free due to toenails etc.
124
Funny! apparently in that poll 62% thought that Dave was a light weight politician, you seem to have left that one out.
Mike, I thought it was the policy of this site that posters were’nt allowed to question the integrity of polling organisation, seems to be an awful lot of it going on.
If the election is in June do you think it might be a Labour strategy for the Tories to spend all their cash (40k per seat) before May (I appreciate that we will know if it’s a June election or not relatively soon but it’s not too bad a strategy, how much have those Dave posters cost?)
206 - Swingvoter.
You are quoting the Morning Star.
Really don’t need to say anything more on the subject.
jsfl I am interested in why they have changed their methodology so suddenly and so dramatically.
As you have pointed out the social attitudes survey would suggest their weightings should go the other way if anything.
What has happened to change things? I assume this marginal poll was not reported with the same weightings last time? So something must have triggered this change in the meantime.
Any ideas?
I wonder if it is because the masses of polling they are doing at the moment - and the need to keep this up for another couple of months or more - means that their panel is distorting. They claim 300k panel but at five polls a week plus marginals that is really going to put a strain even on that number if each poll is to be completely new.
And if it isn’t then it is a rolling poll. A tracker. And they need a very different treatment, don’t they?
Whichever way you look at it, ordinary 40k+ a year Britons are subsidising people like Ashcroft, who should be in the same category but are able to hide most of their income.
In practice the actual tax rate goes down the more money you earn.
Do the Tories on here think this is fair? If you do, wouldn’t it be honest to tell the voters?
Mandy on ITV News. Priceless!
212 - Mark the poll for those seats is plainly not accurate. As you would know if you had anything to do with them. Which of course you dont.
More balanced report on Ashcroft on ITN - Mandelson saying it’s perfectly legitimate to enquire about tax status of Labour donors & Labour should declare that information.
The BBC1 6pm was actually not too bad for the Conservatives.
Ashcroft was 2nd story, report was fairly brief and nowhere near damaging enough to influence votes.
Then about 5 mins later there was a report about Conservative policy re opening new schools.
Ashcroft is an “in one ear out the other” story - I wouldn’t mind betting that 60 mins after watching the story 80% to 90% of people wouldn’t remember it.
This basis of peerage stuff as well begs the question if there are so many labour non-doms why was ashcroft singled out for special conditions. Looks suspiciously like Labour bias.
Some people have maliciously suggested that I do not know what is going on in my party and that I am not in control of events. I can emphatically confirm that that is indeed the case and that I knew absolutely nothing about the tax status of a certain individual who has been in the news recently and was utterly unaware of his influence in the party as I have only been in charge for a few years. Hope that clears everything up and we can now move on to discuss the new spirit of candour and transparency which we will focus on if fortunate enough to be elected to serve.
222
MAke up your mind - I thought it was Labour Propaganda!
Well Dave has one big fan at least.
Zimbabwe’s Mugabe wants Conservatives to rule Britain
Zimbabwe’s President Robert Mugabe Thursday said his country would have better relations with London if the Conservatives win the next elections.
“We have always related better with the British through the Conservatives than Labour,” Mugabe told journalists.
“Conservatives are bold, (Tony) Blair and (Gordon) Brown run away when they see me, but not these fools, they know how to relate to others,” he added.
Mugabe’s rant comes after Prime Minister Gordon Brown told South Africa’s Jacob Zuma in London that Zimbabwe’s targeted sanctions would not be lifted until progress was seen in the power-sharing government.
Zuma, who is the mediator in Zimbabwe’s fragile unity accord, wants the sanctions lifted.
“We have a better chance with (British Conservative leader) David Cameron than with Brown,” said Mugabe.
Relations between Zimbabwe and London have been strained over the past ten years, after Mugabe’s government started seizing white-owned farms, under his controversial land reform laws.
In 2002, British former prime minister Tony Blair’s government imposed targeted sanctions on Mugabe and his inner circle — including a travel ban and freezing of bank accounts — following allegations of a rigged election.
“Blair is a downright liar, utterly dishonest, hypocritical,” the veteran leader said.
Not surprising, as it was the Tories that put him into power.
210. Max
In that case, if the bookies have “got it wrong”, then you’d better re-mortgage your house and get down to that bookies shop ASAP, cos they are giving away free money!
CON in Angus: 6/4 (Hills) (that is 150% return on your money, in only 2 months! beats the building society hands down!)
CON in Perth: 5/4 (Ladbrokes)
Shadsy just loves giving away free cash to folk “in-the-know”. But isn’t it odd how the bookies always manage to turn a profit. Hmmmmm….. funny that.
206 “It is obvious to all that his tax contribution must be less than 50% or he wouldn’t bother with the complication. So yes, he pays less as a proportion of income than other people certainly than those in the 50% bracket but who are not wealthy enough to be able to afford the lawyers and international arrangements Ashcroft can.”
This is tortuous nonsense. Since you don’t know his UK income, you can’t possibly know his UK tax. We can assume it’s a high income otherwise he wouldn’t bother living here for all the trouble and abuse it earns him.
His overseas, unrepatriated incomes are irrelevant for UK tax. They are taxed elsewhere.
218.So your blaming the Government for having the NonDoms tax status? Why should Ashcroft, or anyone else, pay tax on income made outside the UK, presumably on income which has already been taxed by the country in which the profit was made.
Stuart Dickson March 4th, 2010 at 6:26 pm
Mr Rust looks very Scottish to me.
206 It’s probably best for the unions to stay out of this argument all it does is highlight the millions Labour receive from them. All it will take is one enterprising journalist with some amount of integrity to report it and a decent editor to run it on the front pages like they have with the Ashcroft allegations.
210. Max - “I’ve never thought we’d gain Edinburgh SW… “
Please note: Easterross and Scott P disagree with you on that point.
You are the Max from Peebles, aren’t you? I’d guess that you’d know the Edinburgh situation pretty well.
I’ve never been polled but, can anyone who has been polled, say if they have to confirm their voter registration before taking the poll?
by ukpaul March 4th, 2010 at 6:25 pm
answer - no.
224 Briband is gordon Brown and I claim my £5
More Labour lies aided and abetted by the Guardian
This story up Thursday 4 March 2010 16.51 GMT. It was a lie then its a lie now so why is this still front and centre?????????
Tory party officials refused to meet the Electoral Commission in the course of the election watchdog’s 14-month investigation into £5m it received from a company owned by Lord Ashcroft.
The commission ruled that the donations did not breach election laws, but it noted that Tory officials declined invitations to explain the details of arrangements in person.
Pehaps we should ask Rajeev Syal, Ian Cobain, Jamie Doward and Polly Curtis care of the guardian.co.uk who wrote this trash in the first place. So guys WHY NO QUESTIONS ABOUT THE LABOUR NON DOMS??. As one poster put it this is and always was a witch hunt aided and abetted by the State Broadcaster.
183 Seth O L, thanks for your response on the previous thread. The video did refer to commercial propoerty but the main thrust was a 2nd wave of residential mortgage defaults. I’ve now found the link in question:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?gl=GB&hl=en-GB&v=iUuROWEMjm0
CBS: Scott Pelley reports on the mortgage crisis that’s far from over, with a second wave of expected defaults on the way that could deepen the bottom of the U.S. recession.
226 I would have thought Mugabe was your kind of man, coldy, you know, nasty authoritarian, can’t elieve you don’t secretly hanker after him bbecoming labour leader.
218 - No-one’s subsidising Ashcroft. The 40k+ Britons of whom you speak are actually subsidising the unemployed, sick, old & young.
Not that any of this is necessarily a bad thing, but let’s not throw words like “subsidise” about without being clear about who pays more into the tax system than they get out, and who does the opposite.
197 I bet there isn`t a Tory in the land who complains about Tom Bradby on Itv News.
He was a sychophant of the royal family now just a conservative party party cheerleader.
134. Good point Mr Carp.
There’s no conspiracy.
Doesn’t mean there isn’t a cock up, even if it’s a media one.
Any pollster…. whose methods change so significantly prior to an election, who dominate the media narrative and have an old Labour luvvie married at another Labour luvvie as their media mouthpiece is asking for trouble in an nation which is riddled with cynicism where the Government has corrupted national institutions from the civil service to the workings of Parliament and seems happy to have opposition MPs arrested for embarrassing them……and should see what’s coming.
All will be forgotten if they get it right [without changing the way they do their sums again] but there is a silliness about the whole thing.
There are a few obvious things they could do.
Firstly, they should get Peter to be quiet and get a Tory out to spout for ‘em.
210 max
As Mark Senior notes “IF this poll is accurate” then I suspect what it shows that the Scots experience of tactical voting is being directed against the Tories. I don’t expect to see many SNP gains, but David Mundell should be worried! Scotland back to a Tory free zone is on the cards.
217 I would tend to agree with you here Witan . The Yougov claimed figure of a 300,000 panel probably contains very many dormant accounts and Email addresses which are no longer used . I suspect that the number of active accounts is fewer than 100,000 and the sheer number of polls they are conducting makes it impossible for them to regularly get a sample which approaches being representative of the figures they weight to .
232 - Thanks, this is actually a major polling anomaly and one which may well be introducing further noise into the figures. How many are saying that they will vote either oblivious to the fact that they can’t, or knowingly missing out that they can’t?
I just checked three pollsters and they all said that they asked ‘adults’ with no registration qualification.
As our US brethren will tell you it can make a big difference.
231 - Close Stuart. I’m Max originally from Peeblesshire (not quite Peebles itself!). I live in Edinburgh - although not in SW so others may know better.
I think there is another Max on this thread but you can tell the difference because I only usually talk about Scottish politics - and occasionally Hearts!
Some hilarious Tories on this thread.
Camerons ratings heading south and you are looking for the cause of the party lead narrowing in the pollsters and the media.
Try getting your heads out of the sand and look in Daves shaving mirror.
jsfl, Richard Nabavi, SthLondonNick, Caveman etc
What can we do at pb.com to resolve our concerns about YouGov’s methodology?
So far all we do is analyse each poll then whinge. Let’s pool our resources and escalate. I am more than willing to help.
P.S. Have to go out but will be back in an hour.
212. Mark Senior - “It looks from the data tables that just 3 marginal seats in Scotland are included in the poll and as Oldnat posts upthread the only party to have lost support in these 3 seats IF this poll is accurate is the Conservatives.”
Yeah. I noticed that. Scottish Tories DOWN 7 POINTS in the 3 key LAB/CON Scottish marginals!?! While LAB and LD hold steady, and the SNP makes massive advances.
David McLetchie must be filling his breeks.
I think the difference between the 6 o’clock news and the 10 o’clock news is the complaints in between.
241 Mark - That would make sense, and if so the headline figures should be about right once the adjustments are made. However, things do seem to have changed quite a lot in a fairly short time, if that is the explanation.
Getting Brown out of Number 10 could be a very hard job.
Cameron’s dodgy election plan BIf there’s a hung parliament, the Conservative leader may try to persuade voters he has a right to form a government. He doesn’t
Tim Bale guardian.co.uk, Monday 1 March 2010 15.00 GMT
Arguments abound as to how narrow the gap has to be between Labour and the Tories before we’re into hung parliament territory. But if the electorate fail to give either Gordon Brown or David Cameron an overall majority, the constitutional position is clear: as the experts told last week’s Commons justice select committee, Buckingham Palace will not invite anybody to form an administration unless it is virtually certain that he can do so.
For the Conservatives, that means – technically at least – that even if they end up being the largest single party, Cameron will not necessarily get first go at putting together a government.
If reports that the Tory leadership is at last beginning to think all this through are true, time spent at the Conservatives’ Brighton bash this weekend suggests that not everybody has got the message. The Tory faithful are clinging to the myth that their leader is, in all fairness, owed first refusal by Her Majesty.
But fairness doesn’t really come into it. If the constitutional rules of the game are followed, then unless and until Cameron can give the palace a pretty much cast-iron guarantee that he has the numbers to survive a vote of confidence on a Conservative Queen’s speech, Brown will be perfectly entitled to stay right where he is.
Moreover, while he’s staying there, the PM will be perfectly entitled to talk to other parties about them joining him in coalition or supporting a minority Labour government in return for, oh, I don’t know, a referendum on the alternative vote?
244.I wish you could be hilarious just once, instead of being a sour parrot always.
233
No, I’m Peter Kellner. And try to get the naem right please.
240 - As someone who is a member in DCT and helped in the last election (and was one of the very few who predicted us winning the seat) I’m pretty sure you are wrong.
What do you make of the other parties campaigns in DCT so far?
230 Max, it would be much better if individual trades union members gave their political donation straight to the Labour party. It could be deducted from salary in the same way as TU subscription.
The trouble with that approach is, it would reduce the influence of the TU bosses - like the block vote, the block donation gives them a lot of clout.
217 Witan
As I mentioned above it is not they have changed their methodology. They haven’t. Their weightings are exactly the same as they were in the last poll. The difference is that the Labour unweighted numbers are less.
Yougov in almost all polls seem unable to find enough Labour supporters and it seems to have started last September time but seems to have become more noticeable since the start of February. Counter intuitively because there are less Labour voters it seems to harm the Conservatives headline figures (because their views are discarded and replaced by extrapolated Labour supporters views?)
245. Cooking my dinner so I’ll be back in an hour too?
ukpaul.
Anthony Wells made a very interesting point about this when discussing the London mayoral polls.
A significant number of those saying they were certain to vote in one particular poll revealed they were not actually registered to vote at the end of the very same poll! The ‘registrated to vote’ question was a departure. It isn’t usually asked.
dont know whether this has beeen posted previously.
Labour’s Jonn Piennaar said on BBC Radio 5 that Ashcroft may think he’s got away with it but the BBC and the Labour Party will continue to pursue him until he has been ground into the dirt and totally destroyed like Christine Pratt.
really lovely people labour, and this is what errrr…. people deserve all they get, if labour get back in or brown finds a way to stay put, i personally will believe that our democracy has truly broken, and once again people of this nation will have to stand up and be counted.
245 Seth - Good idea to put together a set of questions with worked examples. As far as I can tell, there are two puzzles. The first is why the sample seems to have shifted (which is, if I understand correctly, Mark Senior’s point at 212/241). The second is the actual target weightings, which I believe haven’t changed, but there is this Loyal/Disloyal distinction which remains slightly unclear.
218 Swingvoter.
1) Lord Ashcroft pays tax according to rules laid down by HM Government.
2) The Labour Party have been in Government for the last 13 years. So if you don’t like the rules, then blame them.
3) There has to be an election very soon.
4) Therefore, live up to your posting name and vote them out of office.
251 No you are definately Gordon Brown talking about Lakshmi Mittal, look what you said
“Some people have maliciously suggested that I do not know what is going on in my party and that I am not in control of events. I can emphatically confirm that that is indeed the case and that I knew absolutely nothing about the tax status of a certain individual who has been in the news recently and was utterly unaware of his influence in the party as I have only been in charge for a few years. Hope that clears everything up and we can now move on to discuss the new spirit of candour and transparency which we will focus on if fortunate enough to be elected to serve.”
Poor YouGov, getting a hard time from PB’ers. I would listen more if Comres, MORI and ICM weren’t showing similar leads. On the plus side, the longer Tories are in denial, the less time they have to do anything about it…
222 - I agree that the BBC News item didn’t damage the Tories, my point was that whoever commissioned, compiled, authored and placed the story intended it to damage the Tories, so naked was the bias.
Fortunately, the Ashcroft attack has failed in its key objective because it has no cut-through. The public aren’t interested.
257 trisha - If they think Lord Ashcroft is a Christine Pratt then they are idiots of the highest (or should I say lowest) order.
249. Clegg needs to play this one carefully. I think he should support whoever has the most votes (seats?). Propping up Brown if the Tories are near to an overall majority could destroy the Lib Dems.
The whole point of the Labour Party narrative of narrowing polls is to get Labour’s core vote out. Whether the polls are narrowing (and to what extent) is another matter entirely.
It will be interesting to see what is the first topic on QT tonight. In the previous thread it was noted Ashcroft wasn’t even in the top 10 of the BBC’s most read web stories today. I accept all the Labour activists in the audience and maybe a few misguided Lib Dems may gang together to ensure this story is at the top of the list of questions submitted but perhaps the BBC QT producers should for once see through that game.
238 No one critisises Tom Brady because he’s cute.
212 What is it that males over 55 are doing which means they seem to be disproportionately on line.
Chaps, if you are over 55 and male, perhaps you could enlighten us?
Be interesting to see how Channel 4 spins this poll.
The poll of course shows the Tories winning 95 seats from Labour, 5 more than the 90 they need.
I don’t think you can conclude a hung parliament from that.
63 days & 3 hours………..
Labour strategy: 1.destroy a Tory Lord.
2.Don’t mention the war
3.Don’t talk about the economy - under no circumstances trumpet the budget.
4.Hide Ed Balls
5.Put up Roy Hattersley for QT and Newsnight
It’s novel.
261 - The Ashcroft issue is now morphing into a question of Camerons leadership, which is the last thing they need.
C4 News leading on the plummeting of Camerons net personal ratings.
249 John, Moreover, while he’s staying there, the PM will be perfectly entitled to talk to other parties about them joining him in coalition or supporting a minority Labour government in return for, oh, I don’t know, a referendum on the alternative vote?
I think you are (or Tim Bale is, if you were quoting him at this point) stretching the hung parliament point too far.
It is perfectly legitimate for 2 parties with a common interest to form a stable government.
However, the Q&As at the Select Committee made it perfectly clear that until a stable government has been achieved the Prime Minister can only take those steps that are uncontroversial and necessary for running the country. He can take no action that would change significant matters.
That’s a paraphrase - I’ve forgotten the terminology used.
#55 by tim March 4th, 2010 at 5:31 pm
47 - Same pollster, same marginals yet Camerons lead as best PM has fallen by 13 points.
Tell me that is part of the conspiracy.
Yeah, but…,
URW zez’d yu’s’ woz’ da’ POTY/TOTY 2009. I would trust URW’s analysis, but he was wrong. Feck-off you 5cummy-@rse-lick.
AND I CAN SHOUT LIKE A nEU-LABOUR RETARD. CLEVER INNIT…?
269 tim - True, but it can easily morph into Labour hypocrisy.
258 Disraeli,
I don’t support Labour. Labour disgust me as well for allowing these loop holes, the Tories disgust me more for their failure as an opposition party. At the moment the parties I am ’swinging’ between are the Liberal Democrats (Michael Brown aside - he seems to be the only ‘non-dom’ they have taken money from which was several years ago) and UKIP.
From this morning a comment by RedRiding:
“Peter Hain has already argued for Tactical voting, giving it semi official approval. My guess is in these seats the Lab vote will collapse, and could deprive the Con seats that ONS would give them. It could actually mean that the Con could have a nett loss of seats in these Lib/Con marginals not the nett gain everyone is expecting.”
In most LD/Con marginals the Labour vote has already collapsed as the LibDems have deliberately squeezed it.
This process has been going on since the 1970s, in some places the 1950s.
The remaining Labour voters in these places often hate the LibDems for usurping their position locally or are of the WWC variety who would find the Conservatives closer to their views than the LibDems.
Boris on QT tonight, colourful, popular…elected vs Lord Adonis, Labour, a man with a name less apt, I couldn’t imagine. Carole Voderman tory leaning v Will Self Labour leaning & Shirley Williams one of the bright young things from the LibDems.
273 - Not this one.
He’s still running from interviews.
And they are letting Arbuthnot out there.
More on Brown staying on in Downing St if he loses the Election.
O’Donnell, who discussed his paper with the Queen’s private secretary, Christopher Geidt, said it would be up to the prime minister to decide when to resign even if the Tories emerged as the largest party in a hung parliament.
Ted Heath remained in office over the weekend after the general election on 28 February 1974, despite winning four seats fewer than Labour, as he tried unsuccessfully to form a coalition with the Liberals.
The cabinet secretary said Brown should remain in office until it was clear who could command the support of the Commons and serve as prime minister. “I believe it is the responsibility of the prime minister to ensure that the monarch remains above politics and when the prime minister resigns it is very apparent who the Queen should be calling to produce the next stable government … It is the prime minister’s responsibility not to resign until that situation is clarified.”
O’Donnell said he had decided to publish his guidance now to ensure there was clarity before the election. But he said he doubted that financial markets would be destabilised by a hung parliament.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2010/feb/24/whitehall-gus-odonnell-hung-parliament-purdah
People do get very excited about sub smaples like the 170 in the Scotland bit. It is too small a sample, the MOE will be getting on for 10%. I believe Yougov weight cross the whole sample not each area.
For instance on their national daily trackers the Lib Dems in the North went from 12% to 21% in one day. Did something amazing happen up North to nearly double those saying they will vote Lib Dem. At the same time in Scotland the Lib Dem percentage went down 3%.
I studied statistics at uni a long time ago and the first thing we were told “there are lies, damned lies and statistics.” Please don’t read lots into small sub samples. I gaurantee in the daily tracker tonight there will be big swings in sub samples. They mean little. It will be a bit more relevant if folks add say 5 days sub samples together but even then the weighting issue comes into it.
Was Jon Snow deliberately trying to mislead on Channel 4 news just now. He claimed 2 or 3 times that the Electoral Commission have said that the Tories “failed to cooperate” with them in their Ashcroft enquiry but I heard the spokeswoman from the EC on radio earlier state that the Tories had cooperated and had given them all the paperwork and records they had requested.
She said the EC was “disappointed” that the Tories declined their offer of a meeting but that that was optional and they had no problem with that.
274 - A swingvoter between the LibDems and UKIP - novel.
How do you reconcile the obvious contradictions regarding the EU. ?
278 But he said he doubted that financial markets would be destabilised by a hung parliament.
Why the hell is the cabinet secretary making party-political points?
Well that pretty much cements a real problem with the polls, *all polls* not just Yougov.
They are not discriminating in order that the likely to be unregistered are factored out. Apparently this had an effect on the London Mayoral and would explain some of the screwiness over the polls on it.
How about ARS using this as a supplementary question Mike? It’s the sort of thing which could get good publicity for them if it isn’t being done by others.
280, Snow is a pillock. I stopped watching Channel 4 News after he claimed not being allowed to broadcast the fact that Harry was on the front line amounted to Soviet-style censorship.
278 John
If we are to have a hung Parliament, the very best scenario is Tory largest party, with Brown refusing to go.
It would collapse in weeks. The economy would take a temporary kicking, but if there were to be another general election then Labour could be wiped out for a generation.
282 - Why is that party political?
Re my 271: 249 has become 248, sorry.
The really important thing about the hung parliament is that everything depends on the sitting Prime Minister. It he is who “recommends” that HM invites Person A to form a government, once he has concluded he can’t. That might be someone else from the same party, to facilitate a coalition. The Leader of the Opposition doesn’t get an automatic 2nd go.
It will be fascinating to read the draft Chapter the Select Committe were discussing, once published.
It will be interesting to see what is the first topic on QT tonight. In the previous thread it was noted Ashcroft wasn’t even in the top 10 of the BBC’s most read web stories today. I accept all the Labour activists in the audience and maybe a few misguided Lib Dems may gang together to ensure this story is at the top of the list of questions submitted but perhaps the BBC QT producers should for once see through that game.
by Norm March 4th, 2010 at 7:03 pm
Bring it on, Brois is there tonight, and I can’t see him standing for any Labour crap.
I like Channel 4 news, and the Guardian too. They wear their bias on their sleeves, have high journalistic standards, and break many original stories.
Of course, I often disagree with their views vehemently - but am glad they are there.
280 Perfect example of media bias/creating a narrative.
286 tim - Because it contradicts one of the Conservative’s key arguments in motivating sane voters. Whether it is true or not is a matter of opinion. It is an opinion which the LibDems (and perhaps Labour) would put forward; the Conservatives would strongly argue the opposite point of view.
So putting jsfl and Mark Senior’s points together, the fact that YouGov cannot find enough Labour supporters must make the poll very dodgy.
That would suggest to me that despite the evidence to the contrary in poll after poll YouGov simply assumed they were missing through panel fatigue whereas they may be absent through abstention, death, emigration, conversion to Jihadist, convertion to the BNP or whatever and no longer want to respond?
#86, by Stuart Dickson March 4th, 2010 at 5:42 pm
74 & 80.
… and Labour was at 34%, not 36%.
Not like The Economist to get basic facts wrong. Clearly it has gone down in the world since I last subscribed.
Incorrect my Jockanese amigo…,
Around “Cash-for-Honours” The Economist was caught out. Something to do with their board and - :cough: - Capita. There has been a change since…!
Snow made a complete @rse of himself interviewing the spokeswomen from the Electoral Commission just now. He kept trying to twist her words in order to denigrate the Tories but she was having none of it and firmly put him in his place.
He’s even worse than Toenails.
282. It strikes me following on from Bullygate the cabinet secretary has gone native and is batting for Gordon.
289. Indeed. Ch4 News pretty substantial hatchet job on Ashcroft. Pretty impressive from Snow…
EC. “There is no basis for any legal action based on the evidence”
JS. “But what if you had different evidence…?”
Duh.
I can’t understand why this thread is so fractious. This is a good poll for the Conservatives. It indicates that they’re getting the swing they need, in the seats they need. Speaking personally, I have the utmost faith in Yougov to be doing their best to gauge public opinion accurately.
243 Cameron’s ratings are actually pretty good. Yougov, ICM, and MORI all have him as preferred PM by a large margin. IIRC, you predicted that this month’s MORI poll would show Cameron’s ratings to be negative. Why not go to their website and have a look at his rating?
John Rentoul on the Misuse of maths
http://johnrentoul.independentminds.livejournal.com/302710.html
One thing that hasn’t been pointed out yet but is very pertinent to swing voters:
Look at the names of non-dom donors:
Conservatives
Ashcroft
Labour
Mittal
Paul
Ondaatje
Cohen
It doesn’t look good to be taking money from dubious millionaires but it looks far worse to be taking money from dubious millionaires with FOREIGN names.
281, SimonStClare
The Liberal Democrats are the only party who have proposed a referendum on Europe.
The Lisbon referendum shenanigans, which the Tories could have made a difference to if they meant it were further confirmation that the Conservative party still has no principles.
However Europe isn’t my single issue. I like the LibDem approach on taxation, and a vote for them is more likely to make a difference (especially in a hung parliament).
240. oldnat - “… I suspect what it shows that the Scots experience of tactical voting is being directed against the Tories”
But that does not explain why the Scottish Tories themselves are 7 points down on 2005. In order to be down several points, it would mean that a significant amount of people who voted Howard in 2005 are NOT going to vote Cameron in 2010. And THEN you add in anti-Tory tactical voting in Scotland.
This election could yet turn out to be an absolute stunner. And not in a way that Mr David McLetchie had in mind.
291 - Because it contradicts one of the Conservative’s key arguments in motivating sane voters. Whether it is true or not is a matter of opinion.
So you are saying that even if its the truth he musn’t say it because it doesn’t suit the present Tory narrative, which of course would change overnight if they were the largest party in a hung parliament.
280: ‘Was Jon Snow deliberately trying to mislead on Channel 4 news just now.’
Snow was visibly shaken that Ashcroft was cleared and even tried to put words in Jenny Watson’s mouth to rubbish her own report! To her credit she was having none of it.
282 Richard, Sir Gus O’Donnell’s point was that a hung parliament wouldn’t take the markets by surprise “because we have opinion polls and political betting sites”. (I think I’m quoting him correctly). So they wouldn’t be spooked.
Unweighted we get:
2010-09-08
Con 45-45-47
Lab 32-33-27
well, there’s a surprise!!! The unweighted between 2009 and 2010 has not changed, except for a 1% labour fall!!
You don’t say…
faisalislam
Our poll shows that by some distance ‘the economy’ is number 1 concern of voters, 59 per cent, followed by immigration and health
Labour (and some Lib Dems) must have been *so* looking forward to the Electoral Commission ordering the Conservatives to repay Bearwood’s money. And then the cup was just so cruelly dashed from their lips.
Now their argument seems to have been that Ashcroft was really guilty, there just wasn’t the evidence to prove it.
The former West Midlands Crime Squad operated on the same principle.
292 It is not so much that they cannot find enough Labour supporters but they cannot find enough Mirror/Sun readers and those 18-24 and 25-39 to respond , groups who are more likely to vote Labour than males over 55 .
Having met Snow professionally I can confirm he really is a bigoted pilllock.
302 The basic facts have not changed. 5 more years of Gordon Brown..I think not.
Rather than spout from your farmhouse, just pop out into the real world and talk to real voters, and not to the ones the BBC tried to suggest were a cross section in a marginal constituency on the WATO. The vox pop was an utter disgrace.
Richard Navabi - How is Gus being Party Political?
‘Because it contradicts one of the Conservatives’ arguments in motivating sane voters’. Surely he has to say what he thinks is correct? If the Tories don’t like that, it’s their problem. I can’t see what he has done wrong. You may not like it but it’s the system as we know it and I don’t remember many tories calling for things to change until now - not surprising since they are generally allergic to Parliamentary reform.
I’m puzzled. Do Labour want to actually win the election? I reckon this is absolutely one to lose.
I think the smart strategy would be to let someone else, anyone else, be at the helm when we go through the extremely painful next five years (that’s not saying that the pain will be over in five years, of course).
Hey ho for Ariege; I shall join the ranks of the ex-pats and follow the UK’s fortunes with interest.
Mark S doubly confused now. Because YouGov say : As well as weighting our raw data to ensure that our figures conform to the profile of the nation by age, gender, social class and region, we also weight our data by newspaper readership, and often by past vote. For example, we ensure that our published figures contain 22% who are Sun or Star readers and 4% % who are Guardian or Independent readers..
297 - I haven’t predicted that at all, last time I looked, and as Mike pointed out there wasn’t a rating in the latest MORI poll, what are you looking at.
As for Camerons ratings being good, well falling from and 18% lead on the best PM rating to 5% and slipping behind on the economic trust questions is a strange definition of good.
302 tim, 304 Anne - Thanks Anne, you are right - the next paragraph clarifies that. My apologies to Sir Gus. He is of course right about that particular point; any destabilisation would already have happened.
If our SNP and LibDem friends dont think the Scots Tories are doing well in the Labour marginals, fair enough. I put my faith in what I am hearing from the constituencies not polls which are adjusted in a manner the head honcho of the company is unwilling to explain or defend.
I fully expect the Scots Tories to win more new seats now than the SNP! I do still expect the SNP to have slightly more seats in total however.
@faisalislam
Sounds like poll wants hung parliament with Tory/ Lib coalition - Cameron as PM Vince Cable as Cancellor - won’t happen
244. “What can we do at pb.com to resolve our concerns about YouGov’s methodology?”
Ask Peter Kellner one simple question:
NOT “what are your weightings?”
NOT “why do you use these weightings?”
BUT “why is it that when you do every survey you don’t get enough responses from people with Labour ID?” (and therefore have to weight them upwards).
One very simple question.
Can anyone with “access” to Peter Kellner ask him this? It would only take a couple of minutes.
301 Stuart Dickson
In an odd kind of way, it does. Remember the MORI(?) analysis of Scots forced responses to a Brown/Cameron choice? Even 20% of Tories, who would vote Con for Holyrood, thought a Cameron Government would be bad for Scotland. So it’s reasonable to think that some of them felt safe voting Tory in 2005, but have withdrawn from that position for 2010, when they might actually be helping to elect a Tory Government at Westminster.
Sorry pressed the button without the last para:
But YouGov say they ‘often’ weight for past vote but not, therefore, always. When, why, what does this do to a trend of results?
Back later to continue.
307 Can we get Chris Mullin MP to fight for the rights of Lord Ashcroft?
310 - Explain this.
Gordon Brown does have a three point lead over David Cameron in the question which party leader is best equipped to lead Britain out of its current economic difficulties, on 31 per cent.
Oh, and, what time do you reckon the currency markets got wind of this poll?? http://news.bbc.co.uk/news/business/market_data/currency/11/12/intraday.stm
Ch4 News claims the narrowing polls are Swingback !!!!
325. It’s explained by this…
Key findings 2 : Cameron ahead of Brown on “who do you think is most honest about economic problems”
Gordo is lying. The voters want to believe.
322.
Food for thought oldnat. Food for thought!
Righty ho. I’m offski. Have fun.
Ave it!!!
Con have won the election - Lab have lost - LD = tee hee hee!!!
327. Have they credited RodCrosby?
So much criticism here of Peter Kellner and YouGov’s weighting procedures, yet only two days you lot had
an entire houroops, a scant 40 minutes to tie down this Labour-supporting pollster on this very issue.I had a look at the thread that evening and all I saw was wall to wall pandering - “Welcome Mr Kellner”, “Thank you for gracing us with your presence Mr. Kellner”, etc, etc, ….Ugh!
314 Yes witan , Yougov do say they weight up to the figures for newspaper readership as well as age etc , but if their samples are as unrepresentative as they are at the moment then it leads to the very large adjustments and differences between weighted and unweighted figures that are being criticised . The Channel 4 poll for example polled just 197 Mirror/Record readers , it should have polled 401 .
298- Is it a good poll for the Conservatives? I guess so, in the sense that it’s good to be ahead 48 to 47 at halftime in a basketball game. But the Conservatives were ahead 30 to 15 after the first quarter, so in a way it doesn’t look so great.
Easterross, please note that Max is a Scottish Tory living in Edinburgh. And he thinks that you won’t take Edinburgh Soth West. So, it begs the question: exactly which seats ARE you guys going to win if you can’t win a sitter like that?
Reports of an incendiary bomb going off in a shop in Newry close to the scene of last weeks car bomb by dissident republican arseholes. I’m at the local hospital visiting a relative and I can see a lot of smoke coming from the main shopping street.
Lord Razzall the Lib Dem who worked with Labour on their joint GE2005 strategy on C4 News. So he starts off with an attack on the Conservatives……
330. Aveit, should Brown by some miracle get hung parliament and barracade himself into Downing Street, will you be putting the army on standby?
This poll is proving to be one of the most embarrassing cases of misreporting for a long time.
It shows the Tories winning 95 seats from Labour, compared to the 90 which they need for a majority.
Somehow, incredibly, it is being reported as evidence for a hung parliament.
You cannot conclude this, because the poll doesn’t have anything to say about LD/Con marginals. There’s a complete absence of information on that front.
Saying we’re heading for a hung parliament because the Tories are only winning 95 of the 117 seats they need is utter madness because the poll only deals with Lab/Con marginals. The correct figure is 95 Tory gains from Labour when only 90 are needed in that category.
323 Because the seats in question generated an 11% Labour lead in 2005, compared to a 3% Labour lead across the country as a whole. They are therefore significantly more pro-Labour than the country in general. By way of comparison, Blair will have had a far bigger lead on economics in these seats, in 2005.
Cameron leads, as best PM, by 5%, according to this poll - in seats that are inclined to Labour.
315 The ratings are now up. And yes, you did predict Cameron moving into negative territory with the next MORI poll. And Cameron leads Brown by 38/29% as best PM.
282 I’ve complained. I like CH4 news but that was disingenuous.
333 Mark - I wonder how often they adjust their newspaper readership target weightings.
Someone highlighted Islwyn yesterday…
PaulFlynnMP
The so-called ‘Independents’ threatening to stand in Islwyn are part of the group out to deny Wales the powers that Scotland has. Beware!
301 - 322. Given that the (far more likely to be accurate) Scotland wide You Gov poll had the Tories on 20% where do you suppose the increase in Tory support is coming from if not in Lab/Con marginals.
I’m afraid that using a sub-sample of 170 odd people really is a fools game.
195. Oh, he’s terrible! Where do they find these people? I suppose Darling is disappointed that he will have to hold off on his memoirs for a bit.
334 It’s a significantly bigger lead than 47/48. Were it repeated at the election, the Conservatives could expect 315-330 seats, Labour 240-250.
Bored of yougov.
The hares thought they’d won the economic narrative argument last year with all parties talking about cuts so they took their eye off the economic narrative ball and wandered off into the policy-a-day carrot patch only to find it was a minefield.
Meanwhile Princess McDoom’s trusty tortoise pals at al Jabeeba slowly but surely pushed the line that reckless cuts = double dip recession and the hares would be the reckless cutters once they stopped blowing themselves up with exploding carrots.
339. Andy JS - “This poll is proving to be one of the most embarrassing cases of misreporting for a long time.”
You clearly do not read the Scottish press then.
Only on Monday, the Scottish edition of the Times published a preposterously anti-SNP spin on the Ipsos-MORI poll, which in reality was absolutely tremendous for us. Eg we were at 32% in Westminster v.i. (up 14 points on UK GE 2005) and 7 points ahead of Labour on Holyrood v.i. (in the mid-term of the Salmond government).
Tories know absolutely nothing about being hammered by a biased media. Try wearing our shoes for a day or two.
The penny is dropping at the Spectator of all places.
Although the heat seems to be coming off Lord Ashcroft himself, attention is now rapidly focussing on the Tory leadership. I mean, it was one thing when William Hague admitted that he didn’t know about Ashcroft’s tax status until a few months ago – but quite another when it emerges that David Cameron only found out “within the last month”. As I said in my last post, there seems to have been, at the very best, astonishing naivety on the part of the Cameron & Co. They should have seen these problems coming months ago, and tried to defuse them then – rather than being forced on to the defensive, only weeks before an election.
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/5817218/any-fallout-that-the-tories-face-over-ashcroft-is-of-their-own-making.thtml
Hmmm from the C4 poll
From our poll of key near-marginals: Who would make the best chancellor? Osborne: 15 pc Darling : 17pc Cable: 27 pc.
Interesting, good debate for Clegg and we could see the Libdems surprise us all.
344 Max.
Trust YouGov at your peril.
I could give you chapter and verse as to why their Scotland polls are way off the mark. Their methodology is profoundly flawed.
Mark Pritchard MP, Conservative MP
BBC News
Mr Pritchard dismissed the continuing row over Lord Ashcroft’s donations to the Conservative party as a “distraction” and he predicted it would “end tomorrow morning.”
“What I’m trying to set out is that this is a distraction from the real issues that matter to people,” he said.
“If the Electoral Commission had come to the conclusion that Lord Ashcroft had done something wrong or illegal then I think the government might have a better hearing.”
He accused the “master of spin” Lord Mandelson for keeping the story going.
430. Ave It, Did you enjoy your night at the Irish pub Sunday.
349. Tim, repeat after me, NOBODY CARES!
Net result of the YouGov polls…
Tory core support will turn up at the polls come rain or shine, the soft support that Labour need to get out, won’t bother getting off their backsides.
Well done Peter Kellner, you’re doing a great job for the Tories.
340- Sean Fear - The question that Mike and I were discussing is not up on the site, what are you looking at, could you provide a link?
Scott P
Are the Tories going to still win Edinburgh South West?
You seemed pretty confident that they would, last time I saw you expressing an opinion.
69…cookie… if Cameron resigns, stand for leader,… you’ll walk it !!
In a couple of paragraphs you have told it all.
355. martin tupper - “Well done Peter Kellner, you’re doing a great job for the Tories.”
Spot on.
‘Why the hell is the cabinet secretary making party-political points?’
It’s hardly a big surprise, surely.
I do hope the events of the last few weeks have made the Conservatives realise what a serious struggle they are in. The whole left-liberal establishment, including elements of the bureaucracy, has joined ranks in a desperate last ditch attempt to hang on to power. The Tories are going to have to be ready to fight to the death up until polling day.
#354, by GIN March 4th, 2010 at 7:47 pm
#349. Tim, repeat after me, NOBODY CARES!
GIN,
After so many years you do not understand that Farmer ‘Tupac regurgitates the same old vomit. Geesh, he makes Mark Senior sound original…!
335 Stuart I speak to Conservatives who live in Edinburgh SW and they are becoming more confident of ousting Darling both because of what they are seeing and being told and also because of what Labour isn’t doing.
351 - I think you can only judge by their track record and it’s pretty good. Certainly no worse than anyone else.
@stars and stripes if the republicans or democrates had a lead of 6+% you probably would be predicting a landslide not a victory for the party who was losing. And a 2% lead in the marginals is plenty as it first past the post you could win all the seats in the house of commons in theory by only winning by one vote in each seat.
Mark S doubly confused now. Because YouGov say : As well as weighting our raw data to ensure that our figures conform to the profile of the nation by age, gender, social class and region, we also weight our data by newspaper readership, and often by past vote. For example, we ensure that our published figures contain 22% who are Sun or Star readers and 4% % who are Guardian or Independent readers..
by Witan March 4th, 2010 at 7:28 pm
22% who are Sun and Star readers. and no Daily Mail readers !!!!
I was told when I first went onto YouGov to say I read the Sun, and was a floating voter, or you will never be asked to go onto a poll. I have told them I read the Mail, and vote Tory, and I have only been asked three times in about 3 years.
I have posted this before that they know who you vote for, so they can spin any poll to suit what they want to.
Channel 4 News main headline is that this poll implies a hung parliament.
Oh dear.
248.”I think the difference between the 6 o’clock news and the 10 o’clock news is the complaints in between.”
SallyC, thanks for making laugh out loud there.
Farage on Channel 4 Political slot now
274
What pit have you crawled out of?
356 It’s quite an interesting paper.
http://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Polls/poll-feb10mointor-fulltopline.pdf
350 We can all cherry-pick the bits we like.
Cameron leads by 34/29 as PM; the Conservatives by 30/28 on raising living standards; by 33/31 on the Economy in general, and by 46/12 on immigration, in seats where Labour led by 11% in 2005.
Bad news in the Channel 4 poll for Dave. This was the week ‘honest Dave’ was going to relaunch his tarnished brand. He even spoke without notes at the weekend! Pity Lord Ashcroft got in the way.
338 GIN too right!
353 malcolmG yes TY! 4 pints then a nice curry! Off to Oxford East this weekend with a friend (he is sort of labour) - non stop drinking from 1pm + curry!!!
A quick de-lurk as I am trying to go cold turkey on PB.com…
I have just had a quick flick through the Kellner thread from Tuesday. It is a bit disappointing that he apparently ignored the questions on weighting. It seems bizarre to me that you would weight by “Party ID” apparently on a figure set in stone in 2005, without regularly reviewing how party ID is changing. Or are YouGov claiming that people have shifted their party ID from Labour but will still vote for them anyway? Or that for some reason Labour supporters have stopped responding to requests to do VI polls?
And on Ashcroft… this does seem to have been handled badly by the Tories. Personally I don’t see a problem: Ashcroft has a legal tax status, agreed with HMRC, and presumably pays as much tax as they think he should. Politics is a legitimate hobby and he is as entitled to indulge in it as anyone. I am equally happy with Lord Paul and Lakshmi Mittal donating to Labour, and the Unions for that matter: I am in favour of a free for all for party funding, as long as every penny of income and its source is openly declared.
However, given the toxicity of the “non-Dom” meme, the Tories should have really have found a way of countering it.
How about this…
Of course, banning non-Doms from playing a part in British life is racist; Ashcroft happens to be white and British in origin, but most will be of foreign origin, why not go in with both feet supporting non-Doms and their contribution to British life?
371 If he gains 95 seats off Labour on May 6th, it won’t be Cameron who’s upset.
357. Stuart. Yes, I was confident, and on the last reports I had it still looks good. There is local support for Jason Rust as a councillor, and widespread disenchantment with Alistair Darling from the large banking cohort in the community.
Much has been made of the notional swing required in the seat. Canvass returns up till now suggest that is not unattainable.
I think it’s also worth following Easterross’ suggestion and look at the other results
The Holyrood constituency, which is the same as Westminster plus a wee bit of South, is Tory.
The local council wards are split fairly evenly across the 4 parties, apart from Colinto/Fairmilehead which has 2 tories
In the Euros, the tories nationally were not all that far behind Labour.
The bookies favour Darling, but I think that reflects UNS and money wagered. I am quite happy with my bets in ESW. YMMV.
Oh and the marginals poll… it strikes me that as well as not considering how many seats the Tories might take off the LDs, it doesn’t consider how many seats the LDs might take off Labour.
360. Sorry Runnymede, but what exactly are these Party Political points the Cabinet secretary has been making?
Non Scottish Max here, proper Londoner me…
355 Don’t be ridiculous, it sounds similar to Howard saying 2-0 down at half time to try and get the Tory vote out while trying to suggest to the Labour vote it was in the bag. It didn’t work.
365 Indeed, when I was on the Yougov panel I think I got 3 political surveys, said I was a Telegraph reader and I am a Tory. Someone else who registered at the same time as me got it pretty much every month and he said he read the Mirror and was not inclined to any party.
Peter Mandelson appears to be almost hysterical with spite and fury following the Electoral Commissions decision. Is the smearing of Ashcroft really all that Labour has left?
#369, by bribrad March 4th, 2010 at 7:57 pm
#274
What pit have you crawled out of?
Tw@t, I am the resident English-Democrat. When you are big enough, face me of. Until then retard back to your BenM moniker.
Chahs,
Re You gov, Someone suggested as much to me when I first registered to dissemble about my voting history. I didn’t , and voting intention questions to me now are as rare as hens teeth. All I get usually is Brand index non paying surveys. Its painful to complete them.
All the polling, despite Ashcrofts magnificent marginal seat campaign, point to a hung parliament with the Cons the largest Party. This is probably Cams worst nightmare.
This has probably been mentioned before but in 2005 lots, and I do mean lots of Labour voters either stayed at home or voted Lib Dem because of opposition to Blair and Iraq policy. Could some of these now be returning ‘home’ because of the awful prospect of a Tory government?
371, R Gale:
Why is the Channel 4 News poll bad news for Cameron?
The poll shows the following:
The Tories need 117 seats to win a majority:
90 Labour seats needed: poll shows 95 seats would be gained, (5 more than needed).
24 LD seats needed: poll had nothing to do with these seats.
2 SNP seats needed: poll had nothing to do with these seats.
1 KHHC seat needed: poll had nothing to do with these seats.
Sean Fear - This is all very convincing, but a few months ago didn’t you believe the Tories were heading for a fairly comfortable majority - I did, as did most on pb I think.
370 - Thanks Sean, they hadn’t updated the other table on their website.
It continues the trend.
On Mikes preferred measure the gap has closed by two further points between January and February.
On mine it has fallen by four.
294
Bear in kind that Peter Kellner said on here that they have a total of around 300,000 panel members to choose from when producing the panel for these polls. If that is the case then there is something very strange going on if poll after poll is now finding too few former labour supporters.
Like the Tories on here I think there is something very wrong in the State of Yougov.
Jon Snow - welcome to the Great Paranoid Tory List of people who are “out to get” Wobbler, Tax-Dodger and the rest of the spivs. You join an apparently endless roll-call: the BBC, Sky, Newsnight, Newsday, News Afternoon, News Morning, the press, the man at No. 63, the milkman, Alex Ferguson, that guy who reads the weather report after News At Ten, the Avon Lady, Spiderman, Barack Obama, the woman who walks her dog in the park every morning, the blokes on Masterchef …etc,etc,etc….
383. Lilly
Are you sure you didn’t mean lots and lots and lots?
Returning home ? Where to Poland per chance?
Channel 4 news are categorically reporting that the poll shows the Tories 11 seats short.
Actually there is a two-part process to this:
1. What the polls shows is the Tories gaining 95 seats from Labour, (5 more than needed from Labour).
2. Peter Kellner’s opinion that the Tories would struggle to win more than 10 seats from the LDs.
1 + 2 = Tories short by at about 11 seats.
Only part 1 is based on the poll. Part 2 is based on Peter Kellner’s well-informed opinion, but an opinion nonetheless, not based on the poll in any way, because they poll didn’t deal with LD seats.
For example, we ensure that our published figures contain 22% who are Sun or Star readers and 4% % who are Guardian or Independent readers.
Perhaps that explains a problem. The Sun’s circulation is about 3 million and the Guardian/Independent are about 500,000 together. Compared with the electorate of 45 million, that would mean that the Sun readership is composed of menages a trois with the occasional visitor (excluding the kids peeking over the shoulder at page 3), while Guardianistas would rival Zuma.
O/T Just watched the first episode of ‘Edge of Darkness’ (BBC 1985) and there is a man giving an anti-nuclear rant to a group of university students.
The credits say “Michael Meacher MP as Himself”
Another fact from tonight’s poll which hasn’t been given prominence here is that 70% of respondents thought that David Cameron in Number 10 would mean a change for the worse. A majority also thought Gordon Brown was better at handling the economy in times of trouble.
Re You gov, Someone suggested as much to me when I first registered to dissemble about my voting history. I didn’t , and voting intention questions to me now are as rare as hens teeth. All I get usually is Brand index non paying surveys. Its painful to complete them.
by Maggie Thatcher Fan March 4th, 2010 at 8:05 pm
Maggie what if we re-join, and go under another name, say we are 25, never voted before etc !!!!
388 You do realise it just makes you look ignorant and petty when you try and dismiss a legitimate charge of media bias. Trying to deny the obvious bias in the publicly owned media by deflecting is a tried and true Labour tactic, so I expect nothing less.
I would like to know your views on Lord Paul and Laksmi Mittal? Can you tell us why none of the media are reporting them being non-doms and donating millions to the Labour party, since there isn’t a bias according to you it should have been done by now…
393 No they didn’t. IIRC the 70% figure is “no better or worse”, they didn’t separate out the better/worse/no difference figures properly.
It’s about time Labour stopped putting Mandelson out as a spokesman, he’s counter-productive now. If Mandelson’s on the telly, it’s pretty much guaranteed that he’s talking rubbish. I can see the wheels coming off Labour’s campaign if he is on the box throughout the election.
The thing is, do Labour have an alternative front-bencher who is trusted? Darling, perhaps?
388. I think Jon Snow’s political commitments are hardly in any doubt.
O/T Just watched the first episode of ‘Edge of Darkness’ (BBC 1985) and there is a man giving an anti-nuclear rant to a group of university students.
The credits say “Michael Meacher MP as Himself”
by Tim B March 4th, 2010 at 8:15 pm
I expect Foot was there as well.
390 thats ok cos we then have 10 DUP and 6 SNP and we have a majority with our partners!!!!!
395
No, I can’t be arsed. Is there anyone at all who is not tricking/lying/spinning/cheating or deceiving you.
395 - Max, Don’t waste your breath, it only encorages him: look at bribrad as the poor man’s Wage Slave.
Ashcroft’s strategy has given us Tory candidates straight out of TV ads for deodorants. Will it work?
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/normantebbit/100028486/ashcrofts-strategy-has-given-us-candidates-straight-out-of-tv-ads-for-deodorants-will-it-work/
Re 396
“Our poll suggests that 22 per cent thought David Cameron in No. 10 meant change for the better, while 70 per cent said David Cameron in No. 10 would mean either change for the worse or no change”
Although I can’t download the full figures at the moment as they are in Excel and I need to reinstall OpenOffice on my netbook.
396 OK 70% No better is still bad for Cameron, however the 4 web site states categorically that the word was WORSE ie Cameron worse than Brown.
393
“Another fact from tonight’s poll which hasn’t been given prominence here is that 70% of respondents thought that David Cameron in Number 10 would mean a change for the worse.”
Perhaps Lilly thats because its not mentioned at all in the report. I assuem thaht means you just made it up as per usual.
206 Ashcroft cleared £200m from selling his stake in British Car Auctions in the UK (and will have paid whatever capital gains taxes etc that were due on that) so a miserly £4m spent on UK politics with several hundred million in the UK is very unlikely to have an impact on his investments elsewhere.
402 Good evening Mr John O …. BTW are you bidding for the immense resources of the Hersham Jacobites for the general election campaign ??
Norm a little sceptical methinks.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/normantebbit/100028486/ashcrofts-strategy-has-given-us-candidates-straight-out-of-tv-ads-for-deodorants-will-it-work/
401 Ahh, in the face of logic Labour supporters suddenly come over all shy. Isn’t that a surprise…
402 Haha, yeah I know better now. Labour stooges are going to parrot from Whelan/Mandy’s book regardless of how ridiculous it sounds…
405 See my quote above you lying toe-rag.
Heard a rumour that tonights poll will show a 10 point lead for the Tories.
393
From the C4 article linked by OGH:
“58 per cent of voters believe it is time for a change in government, whilst only 36 per cent believe the economy is too fragile at the moment to have a change now.”
412: Don;’t beleive rumours at all….
388 Bribrad, Sir Alex Ferguson is a life long Labour supporter if not party member. He campaigned for Labour in the recent Glasgow NE by-election. Check your facts.
397. “It’s about time Labour stopped putting Mandelson out as a spokesman, he’s counter-productive now.”
His ITV news interview was genius. Completely flummoxed trying to explain away Labour non-doms. If they show it again at 10 I’ll try and get a clip
408 - And felicitous greetings to you. I indeed request and require the services those illlustrious Jacobite legions allied to those of the glorious Milanese Pink Troupers to secure my own return for another four years of supreme executive and legislative power on May 6th!!
Do we get a YouGov in the Sun at 10pm? 38:32:19 or thereabouts anyone?
412 R Gale
You will, I am sure, excuse me if I don’t believe you.
“The credits say “Michael Meacher MP as Himself””
Great series ‘Edge of Darkness’, it gets stranger and murtkier as it goes on.
Yes, it is the labour MP Michael Meacher in that cameo appearance!
murtkier, murkier, schmurkier….
418 Raw figures or adjusted?
404. JL
35% think the country would be worse off under Cameron. 35% think it would be the same.
399 I expect Foot was there as well.
John, why would you expect that? - I don’t understand your point.
whens the yougov out??!!!!
I bet we are ahead!
412- That can’t be true, because I have it on good authority that the Tory lead will be 20.
423 “35% think the country would be worse off under Cameron” - The same 35% of people who claim social benefits?
421 what is the sun? I stopped taking comics when I was 15
The current TNS-BMRB Voting Intentions Poll shows that the Conservative lead over Labour is just 4%. However, around half of all voters are yet to finally decide who they will vote for in the forthcoming election. The good news for the Conservatives is that their supporters are a lot ‘firmer’ in their resolution to vote Tory. Around 55% of likely Conservative voters are certain about their choice, compared to only 44% of likely Labour voters who can say the same. Most concerning for the Liberal Democrats is that only 38% of their voters are ‘firm’ voters.
The left-over ‘soft’ Liberal Democrat voters are more likely to change to Conservative than Labour. When asked who their second vote would be for, 39% said Conservatives compared to only 34% who chose Labour.
http://www.tns-ri.co.uk/news/uk-press-office/news-article.aspx?id=8E2C4F76765E4553BB28F1558710EB04
417 John O. A resounding triumph is assured !!
Hersham - Conservative Jacobite/Milan Alliance Hold.
BTW …. Is Andrea in fine fettle, we hear so little of his gay abandon ??
410
Sorry - I must have missed the logic. I thought it was just yet another paranoid delusion
388 I don’t need to check - I was well aware of the fact.
And the woman walking the dog supports them too.
412 R Gale if that was a joke you should be aware of the fact that OGH takes a very dim view of such things. If you are merely making a guess then say so as I did at 418. Remember people may be betting their own money on the strength of rumours of impending poll results.
“412.Heard a rumour that tonights poll will show a 10 point lead for the Tories.
by R Gale March 4th, 2010 at 8:27 pm ”
We call people like you rampers and they don’t get out of here alive, their name gets remembered and dragged out occasionally for the purposes of perpetual ritual humiliation…
412. R Gale,
Well if it does then it likely will be just as dodgy as the rest of their figures no doubt and will mean that the Labour ID’s in the sample have probably shot up (and the Conservative IDs dropped)..
So go figure that one out….coz I can’t see the sense in it…..
I think there will be a poll showing 40/30 before very long, but not necessarily tonight.
My rather simplistic opinion is that the polls show 38/33 whenever the voters are thinking about the fact that Cameron and Osborne are old Etonians and multi-millionaires. Whenever they’re thinking about other things, the polls go back to 40/30.
Every single time Lord Mandlestain appears on TV doing his ugly smelly nasty smeary shtick, wearing his £20,000 wristwatch, Tories should be on the same programme reminding everyone that this unelected c**t had to resign TWICE, and arguably should be doing time for m0rtg ge fraud.
I simply do not understand the Conservatives. Why are they not fighting back with extreme prejudice?
Attack these evil lefty bastards. Attack.
431 - QED - another one in the book.
168 “No tax please, we’re not British.”
Ah, that would explain why those Labour ministers had tax advice paid for by the taxpayer
Of course if you believe mr Darling it was to ensure he paid the “correct” level of tax.
Of course………
Every single time Lord Mandlestain appears on TV doing his ugly smelly nasty smeary shtick, wearing his £20,000 wr1stwatch, Tories should be on the same programme reminding everyone that this unelected cn*t had to resign TWICE, and arguably should be doing time for m0rtg ge fraud.
I simply do not understand the Conservatives. Why are they not fighting back with extreme prejudice?
Attack these evil lefty bastards. Attack.
434
The voters don’t stop thinking about it.
Hotwheels Hattie was busy elsewhere, stirring up an inequality debate between Tory zillionaire donor Lord Ashcroft and the rest of us. She was joined in this noble crusade by Labour and Lib Dem MPs, all fearful that “central American money” saved through his non-dom tax status is being channelled into capturing their marginal seats. Harman seemed happy to amplify any passing attack on the man Denis MacShane called “Lord Sleaze of Belize”. Indeed she kept repeating the two core charges: that Ashcroft had broken tax assurances given as a condition of his peerage and that he was spending the ill-gottens “trying to buy seats with the Belize dollar”.
“What I have said is a fact,” she bellowed more than once, before ploughing on. From a more ambitious politician it would have sounded like a leadership bid. But when she used the word sleaze Tory MPs erupted and Sir Peter Tapsell, who allows God to address him as an equal, demanded a retraction. None came. This was all very embarrassing for the Speaker. Periodically, John Bercow instructed MPs not to mention Ashcroft again because he is not on next week’s agenda. At every turn they ignored him. Mr Speaker sounded desperate, as well he might, because rightwing Tories with trademark red faces were using the session to harry Harman with a not-so-coded question.
During votes on Commons reform due that afternoon (which reformers later won handsomely), why were they not being allowed to have another secret ballot to pick the Speaker in the next parliament, instead of an open vote? In plain English that translates as: we want to vote out Bercow when we’re in charge, but not be caught doing it. Hotwheels flannelled unconvincingly.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2010/mar/04/harriet-harman-sketch-michael-white
430 Sad Man max you could be one of those pushing the % up if the nasty party gets in
432 their name gets remembered and dragged out occasionally for the purposes of perpetual ritual humiliation…
I’m thinking plastic raincoats, whips, chains, and farm animals….c’mon UKPaul, don’t get me all excited
FFS, I just had to post that eight times, until I realised that OGH’s spam trap doesn’t like “w r i s t w a t c h”.
Has Mandlestein been paying off pb.com’s esteemed owner, to fix the spamtrap, preventing us from commenting on his Lordship’s plutocratic timepiece?
I think we should be told.
Is it at 10pm?!
Just like 9 weeks time????!!!!!
422 Raw is always better
but for the poll statistics I would expect them to be adjusted.
437
Oh God, Mr Misogynist Gutter-Mouth Smack the Bitches T*ssp*t has woken up. Civilised discourse suspended.
437. “I simply do not understand the Conservatives. Why are they not fighting back with extreme prejudice?”
I tend to think that the mere presence of Mandy on TV is a vote winner for Tories. People may rate him as a political operator but I’ve never heard someone say they like him. If Labour were smarter they find someone other than a slimy and dodgy unelected Lord to attack Ashcroft.
434 - The last 17 polls have shown the Tories in the thirties, if you think the public have been thinking “posh lads” all that time then they have a problem.
399 I expect Foot was there as well.
John, why would you expect that? - I don’t understand your point.
by Tim B March 4th, 2010 at 8:32 pm
O/T Just watched the first episode of ‘Edge of Darkness’ (BBC 1985) and there is a man giving an anti-nuclear rant to a group of university students.
Well in the 80s all the leaders in the Labour party were anti-nuclear. Foot would be at the front of their march to London,with his stick, and a young Tony Blair with his CND badge.
441 - maybe he just had one off the wrist?
413. And there ladies and gentlemen, lies the greatest driver of all.
Fresh concerns about Lord Ashcroft emerged tonight when he was accused of “systematic tax avoidance” by exploiting his offshore status to avoid paying VAT on opinion polls he commissioned for the Conservatives.
Ashcroft privately ordered what he boasted was the biggest political polling exercise ever conducted in Britain in 2005, in order to aid the Tories as they targeted marginal seats. The cost of the polls, commissioned from YouGov and Populus, is believed to have approached at least £250,000.
But sources familiar with the transactions told the Guardian that the bills were paid by one his companies in Belize, meaning he did not pay VAT.
Tonight, the Liberal Democrats’ Treasury spokesman, Vince Cable, said: “This is quite serious. We are now not talking just about Ashcroft’s non-dom status, but about systematic tax avoidance in funding Conservative party activities such as polling. How far were the Conservatives aware that Ashcroft did not pay VAT, as would have been incurred by any normal polling activity?”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2010/mar/04/lord-ashcroft-vat-conservative-polls
Cam Leadership … Brown Leadership
2010: +60; -32 … +48; -49
2009: +60; -29 … +46; -49
2008: +66; -26 … +49; -47
So very little change on the last year.
And on the question of get better/worse
Cam +21; 41; -26
Brown +18; 33; -46
So, to play the word game, you could say 62% of people believe there standard of living will get better or no worse under cameron, whilst under brown 79% of people believe they’ll be worse of or no better.
437 - Cameron is running away from interviews, fighting back like an Italian tank girly.
SeanT
I just don’t understand the Tories’ reticence to attack.
They should be casting constant aspersions about the integrity of Mandelson. They should be doing hatchet jobs on Lord Paul, releasing dossiers on his sleazy expenses. They should be going after Devine, Morley and Chaytor at every opportunity.
Instead, they choose to play by Queensbury rules.
It has led me to reevaluate their fitness for office, frankly, though I will still be voting for them for anti-Labour reasons.
They simply don’t seem hungry enough to win.
I suspect the Tories rather like seeing Mandelson all over the news. He doesn’t go down well with the pubic.
Fresh concerns about Lord Ashcroft emerged tonight when he was accused of “systematic tax avoidance” by exploiting his offshore status to avoid paying VAT on opinion polls he commissioned for the Conservatives.
Now that is a good one.
454. That should be public (honest!).
412. But you’ve forgotten to yougov it, i.e bit of trim here, little growth there and, yep, that looks about right! con 38/37, lab 34/33.
we love ashcroft!
he is a british hero!!
444. lol. Wriggling lefty headlouse.
455 - what is illegal about ‘tax avoidance’? Is he legally obliged to arrange his affairs so as to pay the maximum tax possible?
Tax evasion is a different kettle of fish.
452 Excuse me,who ducked out of PMQ’s this week?
Rumours that this was a Labour Party activist responding to the latest exposee about Lord Ashcroft have yet to be confirmed:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RJyiPF_gAhw
SeanT
“I simply do not understand the Conservatives. Why are they not fighting back with extreme prejudice?”
Too right. Can you imagine Thatcher or Tebbit or Howard or Major or Heath being so feeble.
Of course Mandelson is another hereditary Labour politician - fair opportunities for all but fairest of all for those in the right family.
I think the wimpishness of the Conservative leadership goes to the heart of the Conservative/Tory split.
Conservatives are of lower middle class or working class origin. Self made and determined. They see what Labour is like in practice and hate all it stands for.
Tories are posh and are in their position through inheritance. They feel guilty of what they are and lack fight. They don’t have any experience of Labour in real life so don’t know how dredful it is.
Unfortunately for the Conservatives they have a Tory leadership at present.
455. That doesn’t look good. But I’m afraid as far as most people are concerned it’s been a non-story up till now. Which is disappointing - don’t the public care how political parties are funded and whether donations effectively come from overseas?
#444, by bribrad March 4th, 2010 at 8:43 pm
#437
Oh God, Mr Misogynist Gutter-Mouth Smack the Bitches T*ssp*t has woken up. Civilised discourse suspended.
I have the feeling that Farmer ‘Tupac is ashamed that you belong to the same flock. Please contribute to information and not defamation.
One slight point:
You use the hyphen for Gutter-Mouth (strangely capitalised) yet not for smack-the-bitches [sic] and woken-up. As someone who appreciates the (correct) use of hyphenated words I ask; can you please be consistent?
Chahs,
455 Tax avoidance is both legal, and arguably every citizen’s duty - if a government wants to cut out tax avoidance it is at liberty to legislate (and it would help if we had some sort of simple, loophole-free tax system).
This would be no more reprehensible than what I did in saving a lot of tax in 2008-9 by putting a lump sum into a pension.
Tell me, does the Labour Party seek to pay a penny more in tax than it needs to? Thought not. In any case, this is just one of the Tories’ donors effectively making his donation in a tax-efficient way.
453. Im sure the tories have been constantly polling during the ashcroft saga. Maybe they’re picking up the opposite to what people think should be happening i.e the tories going down and labour up. Just like bullying brown story, lab quickly found out it was helping brown so where happy to let the opposition parties bring it up!
464
its desperate. Every Company pays net VAT to the Exchequet.
453 - As long as they have Ashcroft’s millions they’re happy with where they are now.
My guess for tonight is:
Con 38
Lab 33
Lib 19
That sounds about right.
A couple of weeks ago I called for the Tories to swiftboat the Labour party. It seems my call for such underhand tactics to be employed was duly noted - but by the government: it is Ashcroft and the Tories who are being swiftboated - by Labour and their loyal media friends.
There is only one way to deal with this kind of thing - by taking the fight to the odious bullies.
If Cammo and Hague don’t swing a few punches soon, I might start questioning their cullions.
465
So you wake-up in the morning do-you?
How can the Tories attack?
Either Ashcroft or Hague hasn’t told the truth and Cameron hasn’t had the balls or the gumption to ask either of them.
Tax avoidance - The process whereby an individual plans his or her finances so as to apply all exemptions and deductions provided by tax laws to reduce taxable income.
Tax evasion - the employment of unlawful methods to circumvent the payment of taxes.
Tax avoidance is perfectly legal and should be encouraged: tax evasion is a crime and should not.
436, floater, rubbish, I’m married to an accountant I can tell you no-one, but no-one uses an accountant unless required to by law unless they want to minimise the amount of tax they pay.
471- I’m not watching events as closely as you probably are, but the Tories do seem to have a much too breezy attitude at the moment. Maybe part of the problem is that Labour have been mentally prepared for a knife fight from the beginning, knowing they would be fighting for their very lives; meanwhile, the Tories expected to waltz to victory, so don’t have the pugilistic spirit that is required at the moment.
I’ve seen this happen to some American candidates, often overly comfortable incumbents who didn’t see trouble brewing when the signs first appeared. By the time they acknowledge the danger and decide they need to take the threat seriously, they’ve already lost.
“David Cameron is losing his grip as poll shows lead in marginal seats shrinks dramatically”
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1255490/David-Cameron-losing-grip-poll-shows-lead-marginal-seats-shrinks-dramatically.html
463 richard i agree cameron is useless!!!!!! Cos he’s got all that family money!
If we had rosindell as leader rather than cameron we’d be 30% clear!!!!
473 Intersting tim, Has Brown asked Lord Paul and all the other Labour non doms about their exact tax position.
464. Frank Booth.
Spoke to a nonpolitical friend of mine. When I mentioned the Ashcroft thing he didn’t know what I was talking about. When I explained basically the narrative from both sides he responded along the lines of ‘Yep they’re all crooks’.
Given how often Parliaments impropriety has been emphasised over the last five years I think the electorate have just had enough of it. Any attempt to highlight a particular individual or party is pointless because all most people hear is ‘Crooked politicians up to no good again.’ and think ‘A plague on all their houses’……
If this keeps going I’m revising down my turnout guesstimate…..
477 when we win, gabble will be put in house arrest!!!
“Tory party took completely legal donations from man who manages his taxes well” claims party who took illegal donation from convicted fraudster?
Get out there and sell it Vince!
464 - Before long The Guardian will be accussing people who buy their booze from France tax avoiders and un-patroitic.
The story seems to be dying if this is all Labour can did up.
443 Easterross
No, no. We have to wait till May 7 to see the effect of poll “adjustments”.
Incidentally UKPR gives the Conservatives 215 notional seats, they therefore need 111 gains for a majority so their number of required gains from the LibDems and Others has been overestimated.
393: Christ that’s depressing. It is hard to see how Brpwn could conceivably have screwed up the economy more comprehensively. I will have no sympathy for anyone who votes Labour and then ends up much poorer when the cuts or IMF come.
The key task for the Tories , or anyone who loves this country, is to convince the stupid British people of the awfulness of a returned Labour government.
483 As the Daily Mash put it:
‘Meanwhile Nathan Muir, a Guardian reading Labour voter from Highate, insisted: “If I was a multi-millionaire I would pay all my tax at the full rate because I want to help build a fair and equal society where every child has a chance to be all they can be.”
Julian Cook added: “As an economist the only problem I have with that statement is that it’s a massive f*cking lie.”
450 - It emerged earlier today Hague kept Cameron in the dark for at least a month after he learned that Ashcroft had renegotiated the terms of his peerage and acquired non-dom status. Cameron found out the truth about Ashcroft’s tax affairs less than a month ago. A party spokesman confirmed that Ashcroft did not even reveal his tax status to Cameron when in December the leader approached him to discuss plans to ban non-doms from parliament, despite the fact that he had already told Hague.
Willie Hague, serial incompetent.
Ashcroft, laughing at the fop.
After consuming my 10-pints of Cider I have given up being polite to the left-wing retards (including the JackW wing). So I will postulate a stupendous prophesy for tonight’s YouGov poll.
Cons: 41
5cum*: 32
Lost**: 17
Time to depart and - oh the joys of Zone Horror. Lo’-and-behold, it is Castle Freak again! briband is every where….
* As in Brown.
** And often forgotten.
478 - What we need more than anything is a dog with a union flag coat
Cable is being a twassock on Ashcroft. After pathetically doing Labour’s bidding at PMQ on WednesdayEhe know claims this is getting “quite serious” re so-called VAT avoidance. As demonstrated in the posts above this shows an alarming lack of knowledge of business and tax from the so called expert economist.
474- Other than the criminal laws, the tax code is a government’s most powerful tool for controlling the behavior of its citizens. Tax avoidance is actually encouraged by the government, which intentionally designs tax laws to make certain activities subject to more punitive taxation than other activities. The government can hardly turn around and complain that the country’s citizens avail themselves of the very tax advantages the government itself has created.
476. The only upside for Tories in this insidious and depressing trend is that, if it continues, they will certainly not be expecting outright victory in the election, and any disappointment will not match that of Labour in 1992 (Kinnock really expected to win).
That is sensible, as right now I cannot see any gamechanging event which will prevent the direful outcome I predicted a few days ago: a hung parliament with Labour largest party.
When I first predicted this result, it was 7.4 on betfair. It is now 5.1. I still believe this is VALUE.
487 I know a wealthy Tory who is intensely proud of the tax he pays. Some people are you know. A genuinely nice guy who cares about the community and is pleased to contribute.
These people do exist.
The tories could be waiting to trap certain mps under libel and deformation laws. If ashcroft is going to stand down, then he’d surely use ‘ongoing’ legal proceedings as the reason. It would also put the fear of god into all lib and lab candidates planning on bringing up ashcroft during the campaign.
Of course, maybe the tories are just totally inept. What have they been doing over the last month once cameron found out??
479. MaggieThatcherFan (daft name given the damage she inflicted),
473 Intersting tim, Has Brown asked Lord Paul and all the other Labour non doms about their exact tax position.
Keep blowing that Tory raspberry. The issue was never just about Mr Ashcroft’s tax status. If he’s a non dom, he’s a non dom.
However, non doms should not be allowed to bankroll elections. Especially when they gave undertakings years ago to be fully UK tax resident and then flip flopped on answering the question as to whether he met that undertaking.
The whole scenario is morally repugnant. Why don’t you blinkered Tories see that? Are you really so utterly deluded and bereft of moral fibre?
483. I don’t know if this remains the case…
“Tax Justice campaigners had a small demonstration outside the Guardian’s offices today to protest at the hypocrisy of the Guardian campaigning for FTSE 100 companies to pay more corporation tax when, despite GMG making £300 million in profits last year, it paid none itself. GMG took advantage of a perfectly legal loophole to avoid paying taxes on the capital gains made on the sale of Auto Trader. Without exploiting the law they would have had to pay more than £50 million in tax!”
http://order-order.com/2009/02/06/tax-justice-protest-against-guardian/
Tax-avoidance, moi?
Sky News: “Damaging new allegations - Tories sinking deeper into mess.”
Where’s Honest Dave hiding?
SeanT
The problem is Cameron - he doesn’t believe in anything and he doesn’t hate anything.
He is an impressive showman (those speeches are an incredible tour-de-force) but underneath there is nothing.
He wanted to be a politician and he’s posh so he became a Conservative. But he doesn’t believe in Conservative principles and he doesn’t hate Labour.
494.
I am proud of the tax I pay, I also take pains to minimise the amounts I pay: within the law. These two positions are not mutually exclusive.
Tit.
490 David Roe
…. Nah! Too easy.
493 Excuse Me, are you serious? The Tories have expected to win the GE for some time and by and large still do expect to win. There are some panicky types on here.
Personally, I still think a Tory majority is by far the likeliest outcome. A lead of around 7%, not quite reaching 40% with a superior performance in the marginals.
However if the LDs hold their seats the majority could be rather anemic.
Things could still change, but history suggests they probably wont.
496 - However, non doms should not be allowed to bankroll elections.
As a non-dom I have a postal vote. If I can vote for the candidate of my choice why can I not send him/her some money if I wish to?
494. 487 I know a wealthy Tory who is intensely proud of the tax he pays. Some people are you know. A genuinely nice guy who cares about the community and is pleased to contribute.
Exactly. And people like that in the Tories are seeing their Party’s moral compass chucked away in the chase for raw power.
I feel for that chap, I really do. He ought to join the Lib Dems.
496. BenM non doms should not be allowed to bankroll elections.
http://www.channel4.com/news/articles/politics/domestic_politics/brown+accused+of+cronyism/538112
497 - Hypocritical lefties?
NEVER!
495 Ashcroft spends a fortune on Britain. He just thinks his judgement on how to spend is better than Ed Balls;.
500 No-one said they were exclusive. That makes you a tit. As such we are a pair of tits, and much better off as a result.
503 Tim B
Alternatively - why should you have a vote here?
Jonathan
Then he’s an imbecile.
He would do better to minimise his tax and then donate the money saved directly to what he regarded as good causes.
Sean T
I agree, the way things are moving we will have Labour as the largest party in a hung parliament.
Then the fun will start.
504. “I feel for that chap, I really do. He ought to join the Lib Dems.”
Yes the Provisional wing of the Labour Party. Vote Yellow, Get Brown.
502- “The Tories have expected to win the GE for some time and by and large still do expect to win.”
How does that prove that the Tories will win?
464. It would appear not!
494
“I know a wealthy Tory who is intensely proud of the tax he pays. Some people are you know. A genuinely nice guy who cares about the community and is pleased to contribute.”
Then he is a fool. If he really cared about helping the community in the best way he can (which is a very good thing) then he would optimise his tax liabilities, make sure he gave as little as legally possible to the givernment and then used the difference to help projects in the community directly. That way he would avoid most of his money being wasted by the amazingly inefficient government, would be able to pick which projects he felt were worthy of support following his own criteria and would actually be doing something tangible to help the community in which he lived.
509 - because I’m legally entitled to do so.
510 Some people regard public services, local schools, roads and the defence of the nation good causes. Shame you don’t.
Goddamit Oldnat, I was hoping someone would bite
499. Absolutely bang on. I reached the same conclusion myself today. If Cameron had been born to a slightly less Surrey or slightly more Hampsteady family - literally 1% along the social spectrum - he would probably be a posh Blairite North London Labourite.
His party affiliation is an accident of birth. The same of course can be said of Blair - he was accidentally Labour, and could easily have been Tory (like his dad). Both of them are essentially social democratic centrist welfare-state-supporting Atlanticist One Nation Tories.
The political differences between them are tiny. The historical difference is that Blair was a marginally more skilful politician - and luckier in his timing.
And yes what the elite Tories lack are people who Hate Labour like you and me, the way Campbell and Brown still hate Tories. The fire that fuels victory.
515 - How many community Navies would have been set up in the run up to the Falklands war?
517 He does.
It’s just that as a middle man, he thinks Labour are a bit cr*p.
#509, by oldnat March 4th, 2010 at 9:14 pm
#503 Tim B
Alternatively - why should you have a vote here?
Why should the County of Scotchland have it’s own Parliament [sic] funded by English tax-payers? Ultimately both cases a legacy-liabilities.
496
“However, non doms should not be allowed to bankroll elections.”
So I assume that the Labour party are currently arranging to return the £7m they have received from Non Doms including the afore mentioned Lord Paul?
517 But how many people believe that syphoning Taxpayers money into the Trade Union movement so that that money can then be recycled into the Labour Party’s coffers is a good cause.
Jonathan
I do but there’s plenty of things that the government spends the tax I pay on that I don’t.
Or are you saying that all public expenditure if efficient and worthwhile?
If you do perhaps you would like to donate some of your after tax income to the government.
And if you aren’t willing to do that then you are a hypocrite.
520
A very stupid comment from you Tim. No one is saying pay no tax. All we are saying is that if you want to help your local community then there are much more efficient ways to do it than through the taxation system.
496. And since Paul bankrolled Brown’s leadership election, I assume he’s going to resign.
494, 510 Some really nice people on tonight I see. Taxpayers are “imbeciles” and “fools” apparently. Let just agree to disagree on this, before you embarrass yourselves further. Other people are entitled to take pride in the tax they pay, even if people called Richard don’t.
517 - So by your logic why give money to charity at all? Why don’t I just hand over the donations I make to the goverment instead?
499 another richard, he doesn’t hate Labour.
Why should he (Mr Cameron) hate Labour? Hatred is a very serious and damaging thing.
522 Fluffy Thoughts
I thought you were an ED. If we don’t have our Parliament, you can’t have yours.
You seem to have a logic block.
OGH is in London to take part in a BBC news channel discussion.
And the kids come out to play on PB.
528. Perhaps you should suggest that good little taxpayers should be sent a gold star?
520- It’s the responsibility of the government to set the tax imposition sufficiently high to pay for its undertaken responsibilities; it’s not the responsibility of the private citizen to pay some additional unquantifiable sum into government coffers over and above the amount demanded of him.
I can’t see what all these moaning lefties are on about. Why shouldn’t someone dodge paying large amounts of tax which could have been spent on frivolous things like health and education rather than trying to buy the election for his political cronies? What a fuss about nothing! ( W Haige - no relation to any of the Shadow Cabinet I hasten to add)
BTW, Rawnsley’s documentary on Cameron is on Monday night
496 However, non doms should not be allowed to bankroll elections.
That’s nothing to do with anything - the questions is are they allowed to?
Why don’t you blinkered Tories see that? Are you really so utterly deluded and bereft of moral fibre?
Making puerile comments and calling people names makes you look childish and tends to devalue your argument. People don’t respect those who indulge in personal insult instead of rational argument.
Have the the people who have been out knocking on the doors come in contact with all these new Labour voters. As I keep saying its the ground war that will win the election.
529 You can do both you know.
529 The dividing line here is not about payment but between those who think the state always knows best and does everything better than everyone else and those who don’t
519
Which is pretty much what is wrong with the party system these days. It is a vehicle for people to pursue political careers instead of a having to get a real job. Conviction politicians are sadly lacking in all parties.
Convicted politicians on the other hand seem to be getting more and more common.
Have we had the Charlie Wheelan tweet on the poll yet?
Surely hatred is cathartic. Don’t keep it inside; express yourself!
‘Tupac == ‘5cum
JackW == idle
Toenails == @nal
Scotland << Faroes Islands
Breathe: Much netter….
250.
If there’s a hung parliament the Tories should stand aside and let Brown continue, but make his life hell. The full magnitude of having Brown still in power would hit the markets, the electorate and the Labour party hard. It’s almost the ideal scenario for them.. if they had any idea how to capitalise on it.
Well I still want to know what the Chancellors of the Exchequer (both Brown and Darling) were doing covering up all this dreadful goings on.
Why didn’t they name and shame all of the reprobates who indulged in this ‘dreadful’ national pastime. We should also castigate all those who benefitted from it. So first up surely must be everybody involved in Crimestoppers……
The idea that it is virtuous to pay taxes is a nonsense dreamed up by a socialist state desperate to retain power by any means possible. No one likes paying taxes and barely anybody is going to consider it a virtue.
“Why should he (Mr Cameron) hate Labour? Hatred is a very serious and damaging thing.
by AnneJGP March 4th, 2010 at 9:23 pm”
BZZT! Category error.
Hatred of individuals is generally a negative, futile and emotionally destructive endeavour.
Hatred of odious political systems - e.g. fascism, communism, or the pernicious bolus of hypocrisy and ineptitude that is modern British multiculti New Labour leftism - is entirely appropriate and indeed healthy.
I wonder if Jonathan Aitken has the courage of his conviction?
#543:
netter => better
Spelling is nay mes forte.
277. Another Richard “In most LD/Con marginals the Labour vote has already collapsed as the LibDems have deliberately squeezed it. This process has been going on since the 1970s, in some places the 1950s.”
Any examples from the 1950s? IIRC there were hardly any Lib-Con marginals then anyway - maybe Torrington and North Devon?
545 - Darling was probably too busy flipping houses to avoid paying stamp duty. Funny how our Labour friends have such a blind spot for that particular tax avoiding toff!
496. The reason Labour haven’t had the ‘moral fibre’ to do anything about it, despite their manifesto promise to do so, is because they have been living off the proceeeds these last 13 years. So they lied and behaved like the worst kind of hypocrites.
Moral fibre????
537. I think it was ukpaul who rightly and astutely commented on the level of student politics creeping in pre-election.
550. Indeed and Brown was probably busy making sure his flat was clean….
That would explain it then….
540 No it isn’t… Your use of “everything” is a dead give away. Classic Tory exaggeration.
Compulsory taxation is undoubtably a much better way of funding certain things than charity. Not “everything” as you suggest, but definitely some things. At most we disagree about what some of those things are. We probably agree on most of them. The truth is boring.
I am yet to hear a Tory ague that defence could be better funded through charity. But the night is young.
Just take a look at this report from Jon Craig on Boulton&Co, hatchet jobs don’t come better than this - ‘Lord Sleaze Of Belize’
532
552
Yeah, and Dave was having his mortgage paid.
So Jonathan believes that all public spending is worthwhile and tax avoidance is bad and that the government can spend your earnings in a better way than you can.
But yet is unwilling to let the government spend the rest of his earnings on his behalf.
Another hypocrite.
And I do take pride in the tax I pay and the wealth I help to create, after all it keeps public sector workers employed.
551 - ‘ecky thump - UKPaul and I in agreement again..
whatever next
556 - Yeah like he was the only one!
554 As soon as I saw the comment above I knew it was Craig.
I will never forget his Damian Green nonsense.
#531, by oldnat March 4th, 2010 at 9:23 pm
522 Fluffy Thoughts
I thought you were an ED. If we don’t have our Parliament, you can’t have yours.
You seem to have a logic block.
To [para-]phrase in logical form:
I did Logic at the LSE as a first-year BSc course. I would suggest you need remedial-help in your logic-switches.
On the subject of the weightings… My guess is the Labour voters ‘missing’ from the You Gov samples are people who voted Labour last time, won’t vote Labour this time and are embarrassed to admit that they voted Labour last time.
[Apologies if this has been suggested already]
530 That’s the difference between Tories and Labour essentially. I don’t hate Labour, I do think they are a bunch of thieving wankers, but I still don’t hate them. Labour members hate Tories for reasons beyond my understanding, people like Lily Allen (IRL) calling the Tory party evil is normal to them, but I and most conservative supporters reserve those words for the extreme people that deserve it.
557 And Brown was having his paid even though we already pay for all his other houses.
556 – briband, no mortgages are paid for by the HoC allowances.
I think you mean the ‘interest’ on a mortgage, which by the way is capped.
560.SallyC, its usually bound to be Craig or O’Glaza.
557 I just ask you pay your fair share. Some avoidance schemes are perfectly legit. Some push the moral envelope a bit.
But there is nothing wrong with people who don’t get involved in all that, save money on accountants and take pride in what they pay. Some people do that.
The original claim was that these people do not even exist. That is what I objected to.
But thanks for “hypocrit” jibe - classy stuff.
565 Or the man that style forgot, Silver Weasal Peter Spencer
http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b00r8zjm/First_Time_Voters_Question_Time/
Dermot O’Leary chairs a special BBC Three debate with an audience of first time voters. Using the Question Time format, politicial figures and famous faces are quizzed by young voters.
The studio panel includes Higher Education Minister David Lammy, Shadow Culture Secretary Jeremy Hunt, Lib Dem Communities Spokesman Julia Goldsworthy, satirist Rory Bremner, singer and Prince’s Trust ambassador Jamelia, and Tim Campbell, the first winner of TV show The Apprentice.
Some £25,000 came from Lord Paul through the company he founded Caparo Industries.
Lord Paul, an award-winning businessman, admitted to Channel 4 News tonight that he did not pay tax on any overseas earnings because he was not domiciled in the UK for tax purposes.
Wealthy foreigners who are resident in Britain but claim their domicile is overseas pay no tax on their worldwide income unless the money is brought into the UK. That’s an embarrassment to the chancellor, who has so far failed to live up to a promise five years ago to review non-domicile tax status.
Lord Paul told us: “I pay a lot of tax in the UK unfortunately. I don’t pay tax on what I earn abroad but I don’t earn much abroad. I have a right to be non-domiciled. Everybody who is born abroad is a non-domicile.”
Lord Paul Paul Myners, the former chairman of Marks & Spencer, donated £9,700, Lord Leitch £5,000 and John Miskelly £2,000.
Mr Myners has done two city reviews for the Treasury in 2000 and 2004. He was given a CBE in 2003. But a former colleague of the chancellor told Channel 4 News that the Treasury wanted him to receive a higher award, like a knighthood.
Lord Leitch carried out a review of skills for the Treasury in 2004 and Mr Miskelly was appointed to a panel on public services in 2000.
Labour Peer Lord Bhattacharyya gave £25,000. Gordon Brown visited his industrial programme in Warwick just nine days ago.
The Tories accuse the chancellor of reaping the rewards after years in which he’s handed his friends government work.
When Gordon Brown formally became the prime minister in waiting a fortnight ago he vowed to restore trust in politics as a priority.
His supporters admit privately that the controversy over his campaign donors is yet another signal that political funding needs to be reformed. But allies defend his benefactors to the hilt.
We do not recognise this as Tory polling. No, Ashcroft was doing it for the good of his health.
554, 560 - To be fair, ladies, the Craig article is mainly poking fun at Labour’s over-reaction.
And (shock horror!) the BBC account seems a pretty fair summary of the days’s developments:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8549243.stm
551 - I was in student politics (over twenty five years ago, but still…), chaired the council, went to NUS conference etc, I was labour supporter and candidate then too*. I know exactly the tactics, the playing of the ‘game’ and so on. It was very clear then that the only way to combat it was to return in kind and get muddy. Even if they’re not anymore then they haven’t exactly evolved much, making it pretty easy to spot.
565 Chris D. I don’t watch SKY. It’s odd that Boulton seems to be the best of the lot. He is Labour through and through but draws a line at making an total ar5e of himself. Same can’t be said of the others.
I find the Labour party’s obsession with Lord Ashcroft odd?
Clearly they desperatly need a Conservative scandal - but they have nothing except inuendo.
The lefties are digging themselves a hole.
At the bottom of that hole, lies Lord “powderject-racing driver” Drayson and some asian financiers:
- Lord Swraj Paul
- Sir Gulam Noon
- Lakshmi Mittal
- Srichand & Gopichand Hinduja.
Keep digging, Keep digging.
I’m not sure about the Hindu
And
546 SeanT, you make a good point. I would say, however, that it is wrong to put “New Labour-ism” into the same category as fascism and communism. In comparison, New Labour is too small and therefore it’s too difficult to separate the movement from the individuals concerned.
O/T my nice new copy of “The Political Punter” arrived today, taking 2 weeks (shipped Feb 16th) - despite my being charged $3.99 for ‘air mail’.
By contrast things I order from amazon.co.uk and get sent air mail are here in 3 days. If it ships Monday it’s here Thursday, at the latest Friday.
Nonetheless I shall start turning the pages this evening and hope to learn much from the musings of the great man. It shouldn’t be difficult given my lamentable knowledge on the subject.
So, today’s polling developments appear to be:
We have a new pollster on the block whose methodology is similar to MORI’s “all naming a party” figures;
We still don’t understand why YouGov is weighting Labour 4 points more highly than any other pollster that weights politically, nor why they changed their methodology recently;
Despite that, a YouGov marginals poll shows the Tories on course for a slim majority; and
The daily poll is due.
I find the Labour party’s obsession with Lord Ashcroft odd?
Clearly they desperatly need a Conservative scandal - but they have nothing except inuendo.
The lefties are digging themselves a hole.
At the bottom of that hole, lies Lord “powderject-racing driver” Drayson and some asian financiers:
- Lord Swraj Paul
- Sir Gulam Noon
- Lakshmi Mittal
- Srichand & Gopichand Hinduja.
Keep digging, Keep digging.
Judging by the h£rd reaction on here, one thing is very clear.
Hague is the weak spot.
Very little interest in defending his role.
573.SallyC, I have a wee soft spot for Niall Patterson, and Boulton is usually good too.
571 Richrad, I’ll stand corrected - seeing as it’s you.
briband, Gordon had to repay 12,000 from his second home allowances. Can you tell were his first home is? If he is claiming second home allowance he must by definition have a first one, were is it?
549. Jack Peterson
Those are two good examples from the 1950s, Bodmin and Cornwall North are others and there might be one or two more.
They became more common in the 1970s - the BBC election program in 1979 commented on how the Liberals had squeezed Labour in Berwick and Truro - and the number has continued to increase.
572 - asterisk was there to refer to the large number of MPs coming from my alma mater, mostly labour (although Guido Fawkes was apparently at the place next door at the same time as me)
On the subject of the contentious YouGov polls.
Since these are arriving several times a week, critics have a great deal of data to examine that have been collected over a short time period. There must be some sharp mathematical minds out there who can devise a simple test to see whether the manipulations being carried out on the raw data by YouGov are independent of the final result (which should be the case, taking a number of polls into account).
If there is a relationship between the size of the adjustments and the results, then YouGov are clearly using an unsatisfactory procedure.
And when the YG poll tonight comes out, the last 20 polls will have been from:
12 YouGov
2 ARPO
2 ComRes
1 TNS
1 MORI
1 Harris
1 ICM
(0 Populus, BPIX)
+++++++++++++++++ BETTING POST +++++++++++++++++++
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2010/mar/04/lord-ashcroft-vat-conservative-polls
Yet more, quite serious, allegations coming out about Lord Cashcroft.
William Hill were offering 3/1 on him stepping down. This may have changed, but surely looks very generous indeed now that this affair is starting to look toxic for William Hague, Shadow Foreign Sec ??
http://www.casinobeacon.co.uk/news-articles/news/2010-03/ashcroft-040310.htm
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
573
Yet another for The Great Tory Paranoia List. Tell me, is anyone in Britain or the northern hemisphere not plotting to do down the Conservative( no-tax-here) Party?
585 Where was that, go on, come clean? My money’s on the Feltham young offenders institute. Not too far from Eton.
I am currently reading Paul Routledge’s biography of Gordon Brown and came across this wonderful little vignette:
The Thatcher years had made people more self-reliant, whether they wished it or not
557
And Lord Paul was busy claiming almost £300,000 in expenses for doing a job that Ashcroft was willing to do for free.
Again, any news on when Brown is going to start paying back that 7 million quid the Non Doms have given his party?
looks like the ashcroft labour hypocritathon is just about to finish.
Step forward Gordon for some no doubt Marr like easy questions.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/leading_article/article7050391.ece
589 It is indeed quite a list these days.
588. Branston.
zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz *bonk*
589 - I’m not
580 But none of them can hold a candle to Tom. Though he’s not as tall in real life as I’d expected. Still the most handsome of the lot.
Just read Seant’s comments above and whilst I have e very small modicum of sympathy, the thought of Sean on the doorstep makes me laugh. The voters would need fire retardent clothing and a sedative.
546.
Hatred of odious political systems - e.g. fascism, communism, or the pernicious bolus of hypocrisy and ineptitude that is modern British multiculti New Labour leftism - is entirely appropriate and indeed healthy.
You forgot one - conservatism. Soon to be dumped in the dustbin of history where it sorely belongs.
561 Fluffy Thoughts
I suspect you had a bad tutor.
That was exactly the point I was making.
I want England to have it’s own Parliament, and to make it’s own decisions. That’s what grown up nations do.
tonight’s poll…
Con 50%
Lab 25%
Spanners 15%
Oth 10%
…maybe
597 – Sally, ‘lock up your daughters’ springs to mind.
And further to my 587, the previosu 20 polls were conducted by:
6 YouGov
4 ComRes
3 ARPO
3 ICM
2 Populus
1 BPIX
1 MORI
(0 Harris, TNS)
563 “Labour members hate Tories for reasons beyond my understanding,”
The Daly Lama says that hate does not affect the person hated. It does however affect the person hating. It consumes them.
Does Lilly Allen hate conservatives? Ah well, she is young and making hay while the sun shines. Even now she is begining to wane. For a young person she is not in good shape. In 5-10 yrs time, she can hang out with her unfunny bitter father and do whatever such people do.
596
Hi,there. My favourite Tory. Call me Beowulf.
I’ll tell you what..
I’ve not been here in a while and there are definitely more Labour posters about than last year. At times it was just Tim.
Perhaps the polls really have moved. Mike always said the number of posters follows the polls. Interesting in itself.
Does anyone know which political philosophy has the greatest historical track-record? Obviously the poster at #598 is struggling with his homework.
589 - Ignore the scummy little troll, their poor little underused brain cannot compute that someone attacking them isn’t a tory and was, in fact, a labour party member.
It’s posters like that, that have destroyed the true labour party, they must be so proud…
The Financial Times reports that the tax on bankers bonuses is predicted to raise more than £2.5bn in revenue, almost three times the Treasury estimate, and suggests this windfall may be used for pre-election spending in this month’s budget.
An attempt at some serious analysis:
Labour have messed up with Ashcroft, similar in certain ways to the Conservatives with Brown’s bullying.
If Labour had said nothing then the Conservatives would have turned inwards into self criticism.
But Labour’s actions just turn the Conservatives outwards towards their enemy.
All Labour have achieved is to harden the Conservative vote.
606 Probably the Green movement, because they’ve not done anything yet. So no mistakes.
589
I am - but I’m waiting until they have got rid of Brown from No 10 before I start
I do like the new Labour student posters.
BenM is all believe absolutely anything Gordon tells him no matter how irrational or insane.
and
Briband is all “I am way too cool for school and tories”
I have this picture of them following timmy around at forces from hell academy.
BenM 598. ‘You forgot one - conservatism. Soon to be dumped in the dustbin of history where it sorely belongs.’
Shallow, shallow, shallow. You dont know very much do you. Suggest you stay in your area of expertise. Smears and cheap shots.
506 - Despotism.
bribad
bribad, Gordon had to repay 12,000 from his second home allowances. Can you tell were his first home is? If he is claiming second home allowance he must by definition have a first one, were is it?
by don(the other one) March 4th, 2010 at 9:44 pm
594 - Jonathan, you know full well my liberal politics, don’t give that poster the time of day, they aren’t the sort to be associated with (if you follow their posts), just there to try and wind others up.
Several Tory posters just appeared on the billboards in the vicinity of Morley. The get Balls out campaign has just been ratcheted up.
Scott P
Taxing money you’ve given away to begin with doesn’t increase income.
Interesting how the budget deficit is now regarded as a MINIMUM figure rather than a MAXIMUM one. If things turn out worse than expected then just increase the deficit but if something turns out better then no need to reduced the deficit just increase your spending.
Brown = fiscal diarrohea
615, apologies, obviously should read bribrad
507
Such wit…such logic …such charm …
#599, by oldnat March 4th, 2010 at 9:52 pm
#561 Fluffy Thoughts
I suspect you had a bad tutor.
Karl Popper was my first-year tutor*. I take his judgement over yours, sorry.
* Although I am sure Karl Klapholz [sp?] took the Logic course, but it was such a long time ago.
616 You’re probably right, but there is a genuinely interesting point there. Somehow, the Tories have become disassociated from their tub-thumping press. Back in 1979, I doubt there would have been any questions at all about who the Telegraph or the Mail would support.
Given the relative emollience of Dave’s public persona and the fact he is a blue blooded Tory, I would have expected him to have done better.
I know one or two right wing journalists, who don’t like the old school cliqueness of the Notting Hill set. Perhaps that’s it.
Interesting though, when you think about it.
Tory party took completely legal donations from man who manages his taxes well” claims party who took illegal donation from convicted fraudster?
here come the libel lawyers……
620 - Can’t even count….
622 - There is the crazy/naive faux-libertarian right, ally that with the hard right (who, like the poor, are always with us) and Cameron has to disappoint quite a few supposed supporters.
Frankly, I prefer his honesty in not playing up to them the way that people like Howard did.
Oh, dear Tory troubles back as lead items on BBC. Can’t quite shake it off, can you, Dave? Tell you what, just throw Hague to the wolves. After all, he’s not from quite the right background when it comes down to it, is he? And as you say, you couldn’t be expected to know the full facts about Ashcroft just by being party leader for five years or so. Yes, I’d do the decent thing if I was you - wash my hands of the matter and sacrifice old William H. But remember to be completely open, candid, frank, transparent, honest and truthful as you do it.
520 tim
It was a community navy that rescued British and French troops from Dunkirk in 1940.
A total of 338,226 soldiers (198,229 British and 139,997 French)[2] had been rescued by the hastily assembled fleet of 850 boats.
…
Thousands were carried back to England by the famous “little ships of Dunkirk”, a flotilla of around 700 merchant marine boats, fishing boats, pleasure craft and Royal National Lifeboat Institution lifeboats—the smallest of which was the 15-foot fishing boat Tamzine, now in the Imperial War Museum—whose civilian crews were called into service for the emergency. The “miracle of the little ships” remains a prominent folk memory in Britain.
And it was all achieved without the assistance of Phillip Blond.
To get back to dodgy weighting, my understanding is that weighting is used to correct the crude figures to something closer to the Polster believes is the case. Surely it is far better to improve the sampling than fudge the figures.
My experience is based on public health work, why should political surveys be better?
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