How do hung parliament advocates deal with this?
March 7th, 2010
What do these say about hung parliaments and the LDs?
Reproduced above are a couple of findings from today’s Sunday Times YouGov poll which I think might have signficance.
The first is a form of forced choice question where the responses are Lib Dem supporters are the most interesting. Just comparing their answers then support for Labour is just ahead of the Tories - even though more of the would prefer a Tory outright win than a Labour one.
The second question could add fuel to what we’ve been calling the “hung parliament paradox” - the more such an outcome seems likely the less the chances of it happening.
Although I think that the question is a bit leading the 55-35 WORRIED:NOT WORRIED split suggests that this could be exploited in the campaign’s closing stages.
On top of this YouGov found that one in five voters would consider voting for their second choice party if they felt it would avoid a hung parliament.
There’s clearly a lot of work to do by the hung parliament protagonists.
Mike Smithson
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Comments off??? I wanted to be first
I don’t like questions that give a little back story like “fear of a hung parliament has unsettled the financial markets.” Becuase without such a point people would properly have a very different opinion of a hung parliament. Its not until a point like that is made that people realise that a hung parliament may be dangerous for the economy.
4-5 march 2009?
Is it a year old, or is date wrong?
Do we have any “Hung Parliament Advocates” around here? I hadn’t noticed any
I really don’t think it’s going to be NOM - and if we get anywhere close come the last week of polling, the markets will make it very clear what the ’sensible’ thing to do is.
On thread, I am not surprised many diehard LibDem fans are not phased about a Hung Parliament. It is the result they all 0rgasm over, thinking over and over again what pledges they can secure from Brown or Cameron in order to gain support. Never mind that the pound, stock market, Britain’s credit rating would all tank, the LibDems would achieve the trappings of power after 90 years in the wilderness.
Of course what is going to happen is that lots of Tory voters who voted Tory routinely until 1992 but have loaned their votes to the LibDems since 1997 will revert to voting Tory and the many seats in which they lived will revert to be Tory. Others who have forgotten or forgiven over Iraq will revert to Labour, so the LibDems will be squeezed harder than a pair of squaddies balls in the vice grip of the RSM.
As requested on the end of the last thread, does anyone have a working link to the 2008 Supermarginals.
Interesting that even the revered (on PB) PRofessor Curtice believes the Scottish LibDems are going to tank at the GE. Hradly bodes well for their expectations in Edinburgh South, Edinburgh North and Leith, Aberdeen South and Glasgow North.
“On top of this YouGov found that one in five voters would consider voting for their second choice party if they felt it would avoid a hung parliament.”
Against this, more than one in five voters have a hung parmliament as their preferred outcome, so one would have to assume that they would also “consider” voting for their second choice party to bring about a hung parliament.
The Lib Dems really are all over the place, aren’t they? What an incoherent, pointless protest party they are.
5 “and if we get anywhere close come the last week of polling, the markets will make it very clear what the ’sensible’ thing to do is.”
Which is what?
Continue with the government that bailed out the banks and helped to avoid a depression, or go with a novice?
Shadsy spookily on topic
ladpolitics
Two General Elections in 2010? 10/1 says Ladbrokes. http://bit.ly/9W9bS7
Interesting, but meaningless. Individual voters are unable to vote for or against a hung parliament. One member constituencies mean that the power of the individual voter is diluted further.
Many voters in solid seats will vote for or against the blue or red donkey knowing that casting their vote is of minimal value.
Many vote against, rather than in favour. Hung parliaments are outcomes that have inputs that by their nature are unpredictable.
A hung parliament is purely an outcome; attempting to construct a scenario that rates placing a bet on a hung parliament is in my humble opinion a fatuous action.
One in five Labour voters don’t want a Labour overall majority. Isn’t that astonishing?
The Lib Dems are almost evenly split between those leaning left and those leaning right. The Lib Dem leadership, if not the rank and file, will be hoping for one or other party getting an overall majority with those numbers. Whichever way they jump, they are bound to disappoint 40% of their voters.
Just looking in. Didn’t know about the BPIX poll.
Couple of thoughts/questions.
1. Do people think Cashcroft is now hurting the Tories?
2. Who cares if Sam Cameron votes Labour? She’s allowed to think for herself. Makes Cammo look inclusive, so probably a good thing for a person trying to woo Labour voters.
3. The idea that the markets will “tell the electorate” to avoid a hung parliament and the electorate will do as bid is the stuff of sheer fantasy.
Interesting, but meaningless. Individual voters are unable to vote for or against a hung parliament. One member constituencies mean that the power of the individual voter is diluted further.
Many voters in solid seats will vote for or against the blue or red donkey knowing that casting their vote is of minimal value.
Many vote against, rather than in favour. Hung parliaments are outcomes that have inputs that by their nature are unpredictable.
A hung parliament is purely an outcome; attempting to construct a scenario that rates placing a bet on a hung parliament is in my humble opinion a fatuous action.
how many people would vote different because of a fear of a hung parliament…NONE….what a stupid suggestion to make.There are some strange people who go on this web-site…..
“Its not until a point like that is made that people realise that a hung parliament may be dangerous for the economy.”
Yeah, but if you want to find out if a particular line might have an effect that’s sort of what you’re testing i.e how effective is a particular leading question.
Not convinced a signifucant number of supporters of party A will switch to party B that they dislike merely to avoid a HP.
12 From what appears to be the feedback - Ashcroft is having zero impact, Sam Cameron votes Tory and if the news is full of stories of Sterling tanking etc - then that’s a pretty clear pointer from those who know 99.9% more about what’s good medicine for the economy.
FPT:
Anyone know how UNS performed in 1983 and 1979?
Also, are we due to get any polls tonight?
O/T Would a political party prefer a better score in the unweighted sample than in the weighted sample?
FPT 299 CarlottaVance
No, I am suggesting that both the Honours Scrutiny Committee and Tony Blair relied on the advice and promises of William Hague.
There is no provision in law or custom for Peerages to be granted on a conditional basis. So the Prime Minister has to make a yes or no decision on whether to recommend the Queen grants the peerage. In the case of Lord Ashcroft, Tony Blair made a ‘yes’ decision.
The conditions only applied to whether the Honours Scrutiny Committee would recommnend to the Prime Minister that a ‘yes’ decision was made. It was therefore up to the committee to satisfy itself that any conditions or undertakings attached to their recommendation were met or likely to be met. The committee had to assess whether representations given on Lord Ashcroft were credible and bona fide. They do not enter into contractual obligations with enforceable conditions: they make a balanced assessment based on the evidence before them.
Say I was asked to write a letter of support for our very own SeanT to be made Baron Thomas of Primrose Hill and Knox of Hardlife. My letter would be selective and praise his unquestionable literary and polemical skills. It would point to his published achievements and may make a prediction that he will go on to write the definitive 21st century literary novel.
The committee may decide to call upon other persons to give conflicting evidence or predictions. It would then make a decision on whether there was a known reason why Mr Thomas should not be elevated. If there was no adverse advice and the Prime Minister recommended the Queen make SeanT a peer, should I be held liable for Mr Thomas’s subsequent literary output or general conduct?
No, of course not. It is up to the Honours Scrutiny Committee and Prime Minister to follow due process and diligence in giving the advice and making the decisions for which they are responsible.
10. And you can lay it at 9/1 on Betfair.
there will be 2 elecetions in 2010, the general election and the new tory party leader.
Gordon Brown needs to call the election now, ready for an April poll.
There are several polls out now which are giving him a window of opportunity, and he could just nick it.
But will he ?
Or course not. He’s going to snatch (now there’s a word which is topical right now) defeat from the jaws of victory.
Come May or god forbid June, the weather will be better, the world cup will be on the horizon, and people will feel more confident about themselves and the mood of the nation will rise, and they will reject gloomy Gordon.
Trouble with Grdon Brown is that not only does he want to win on his own merit, which was why he cancelled 2007 election, because for him, being ‘not Tony Blair’ was not a good enough reason to win the general election. He wanted to win it by being Gordon Brown, almost as a form of self appraisal.
But now, on top of all that, he wants to be able to win it WHENEVER he calls it, to act as a form of double affirmation that the nation loves him.
Whens this guy just going to grow and accept that life is imperfect, and if a win is presenting itself, just bl**dy well grab it with both hands.
He’s such twonk. He’s really getting on my nerves now. Can you imagine working for this guy and trying to get him elected. No matter what you try and do for the guy, he still manages to balls everything up.
21. Not any more
The point about PR is that if we had it, we (the people and the parties) would learn to deal with it and adjust to it - just as they do in other countries. There must be loads of politicians in various countries in Europe who would greatly envy the prospect of having 47% of the seats on the basis of being the largest party (as in 1974). If they knew that you can’t just run away from a hung parliament by waiting a few months and then having another election, they would grow up and learn to work together / negotiate / not be so greedy.
Could someone remind me what action the current government (with a ’strong’ majority) is taking about the economy, like having a comprehensive spending review or announcing a budget date?
Evening all , I would agree with Mike that the form of words make this a leading question . Strange that the results of the preceding question contradict the findings of the one we are discussing . One in eight intending Conservative and one in five intending Labour voters do not want their party to have an overall majority .
“…average net popularity…compared with January’s as follows:”
Nick Clegg +14% (-1%)
Gordon Brown -24% (+7%)
David Cameron +9% (-1%)
http://www.globalpost.com/webblog/united-kingdom/pollwatch-%E2%80%93-state-the-leaders-clegg-14-brown-24-cameron-9-feb-2010
23 I agree with the vast majority of what you say;I am a Labour voter who would not mind if a hung parliament with Labour largest occured- I am able to say it would be a ‘rap on the knuckles’-I would not deny mistakes have occured.
And the end of adversierail,two-party ‘yah-boo’ politics,with cross-party co-operation,on reflection sound more like the 21st century model our country should (and probably sooner or later will) adopt
23
The point about PR is that if we had it we would have ceded far more power to the political class just as they have in much of the rest of Europe and democracy would be far the worse for it.
24. jupiter1 are you Gordon Brown?
You keep on posting the same inane nonsense one would expect of Gordon ‘bonkers’ Brown.
18 I suspect they would wish for an accurate sample. That I suppose is why we get all the different methods of weighting.
15 Nick I agree with you. People will either support their candidate of choice or vote for another candidate to try and get the sitting MP/successor to the MP out. Hung Parliaments are the least they will think about.
12
1) No idea but if it does start hurting the Tories then it’s prime time for counter-attacking and re-opening every can of worms from the last 13 years that ZNL got away with because people weren’t paying attention. “They’re all the same” should proportionately hurt the Tories more because they’re ahead (unless that whole segment of votes has already given up) so el Torees would need to counter hard to show ZNL as worse. No point doing anything if the punters are ignoring the whole thing.
2) SamCam as closet Bolshevik hurts and helps votes in more or less equal measure i’d say, same as most of the fluffy stuff, except the fluffy stuff has added bonus of making the nasty tag harder to pin on which helps indirectly getting soft Tories back from the LDs.
3) Depends who wins the economic narrative. I think it’ll have an effect but the direction of the effect will depend on whether “reckless McDoom” or “reckless Tory slash and burners” wins the narrative battle,
30 was meant for John Loony at 26!
24 - great post, absolutely right.
A highly confidential operation being run by Britain’s biggest trade union, Unite, is far bigger than the Tories’ own £3m marginal seats campaign. The union is using it’s own massive datatbase of members in a bid to persuade dithering former Labour voters they must get out and vote during the General Election. The swing voters are being called by activists working for the Union…
…The operation is being masterminded by Charlie Whelan, Unite’s Political Director and a close friend of Prime Minister Gordon Brown…
…at the moment Labour have about £8m to spend at the election, half of the Tories’ own General Election Budget. But Unite are likely to spend up to £5m on their own campaign before the General Election starts. The trade unions have sent a staggering £88.5million to the Labour Party HQ in the last eight years. This amounts to 63 per cent of all funding the Labour Party has received since official records of donations began in 2001. They are also providing teams of drivers across the country to transport the elderly to polling stations, they are organizing postal votes, and sending 200 campaign officials to the marginal seats….
…To reinforce the direct calls, letters and leaflets, the Labour Party is also planning poster campaigns that will highlight claims about cuts under a Tory Government. For the past six months, Labour MPs have bombarded government departments such as the Home Office, Department for Children, Schools and Families and the Department of Health. They have been asking about the effect of budget cuts on their constituencies. Those answers will be used on posters which will claim the Tories will cut hundreds of front line police jobs, thousands of nurses and teachers. Labour strategists believe the campaign will be particularly effective in the North West, where a far higher proportion of potential labour voters are in public sector jobs.”
23
“there will be 2 elecetions in 2010, the general election and the new tory party leader.”
In which case the Tories will be doing far better than Labour dictatorship who didn’t even bother with an election for their leader. I wonder if, when they lose, Labour wil have a think about some of this democracy stuff they keep hearing about. That way they might have a chance of electing a leader that helps them avoid complete oblivion.
Some bets for you.
Prices for seats
How Many Seats Will The Conservatives Win At The Next General Election? - 31 Mar 10 ( General Election Specials )Selection Odds
0 - 199 seats 25/1
200 - 249 seats 14/1
250 - 299 seats 5/1
300 - 324 seats 4/1
325 - 349 seats 9/4
350 - 374 seats 4/1
375 - 399 seats 6/1
400 - 424 seats 16/1
425 - 449 seats 22/1
450 seats or more 25/1
——————————————————————————–
Labour
How Many Seats Will Labour Win At The Next General Election? -( General Election Specials )Selection Odds
0 - 149 seats 11/1
150 - 199 seats 9/4
200 - 224 seats 3/1
225 - 249 seats 7/2
250 - 274 seats 6/1
275 - 299 seats 7/1
300 - 324 seats 12/1
325 - 349 seats 22/1
350 - 399 seats 28/1
400 seats or more 66/1
How Many Seats Will The Liberal Democrats Win At The Next General Election? - 31 Mar 10 ( General Election Specials )Selection Odds
0 - 19 seats 33/1
20 - 39 seats 11/2
40 - 49 seats 9/4
50 - 59 seats 9/4
60 - 69 seats 4/1
70 - 79 seats 15/2
80 - 99 seats 10/1
100 seats or more 18/1
Most Seats At Next UK General Election ( General Election Specials )Selection Odds
Conservative Party 1/7
Labour Party 4/1
Liberal Democrat Party 80/1
http://sports.williamhill.com/bet/EN/betting/g/9035/General-Election-Specials.html
24. “Gordon Brown needs to call the election now, ready for an April poll.”
I just don’t buy this line of reasoning. The polls have shown a decisive trend for many months now of a narrowing of the gap between Labour & Tories. It makes far more sense to ride that wave to the end and call it for May. June is maybe too far as you don’t want to give the impression you are hanging on for grim death, but I can see no reason to call a snap election now from Labour’s perspective.
I can see that Tories would want them to do so desperately, and that’s why so many keep claiming that Gordon’s insane not to do it now. He’s not.
That second question is methodologically outrageous, surely. Back to Sir Humphrey & Bernard.
28. I suspect that at least one in eight Tories and one in five Labour voters don’t even know what an overall majority is!
The supplementary questions in this survey are pointless. As if individuals are likely to switch their vote because some psephologist somewhere says that in any given seat a vote in that manner may increase the likelihood of a hung parliament. What a barmy concept! Many voters don’t even grasp the vagaries of the FPTP system, have no interest in stories about psephological quirks, lack perfect information, vote with their heart anyway. You might as well as why 15-20% of people vote for a party that has no chance of winning a general election.
Perhaps Mike himself, the author of this thread, could enlighten us?
19 Seth O Logue
So that’s a ‘No’ then to:
‘Ashcroft has paid tens of millions of tax a year in the UK’?
No doubt you’re right, the word of the Leader of the Opposition, and by now, over a hundred million in tax are but trivialities….
Its going to come out sooner or later….
Hung parliament, or the all-party National Government that is going to be needed to get the country through the impending economic meltdown?
(And, given the sheer virulence of the hatred of the Lib Dems that other two parties express, I would have imagined that a Con Lab pact was the most likely grouping after an inconclusive election - that said, I expect a clear Tory win, the first of many, leading to the gradual dissolution of Labour and the Lib Dems over the next decade.)
You know, I can see all the leftie wailing and whingeing over Ashcroft (and everything else they wail and whinge about as being so unfair to them…) being the one thing that sends me back to the Tory fold, if anything could.
Whenever I come on here for political insight and gossip, I have to wade through endless bile from tim and Gabble and their chums, like wading through slurry in a farmyard to reach the footpath on the other side, a bit unpleasant and taking the edge off a pleasant walk - which is what the farmer wants of course.
And then today, at mum & dad’s, I had a quick skim through the Sunday Mirror to find pretty much the same in there - goodness knows what the average Mirror reader makes of a double page spread on “Cashcroft - Tories in Turmoil” and a piece on Gordon Prentice, Pendle MP, whingeing and wailing about the fact the Tories can afford to put leaflets through letterboxes in his constituency because of Ashcroft, the man “who wants to buy Pendle for the Tories”, for f’s sake.
Get a grip Gordon - it’s called campaigning, haven’t you been able to use your communication allowance for the past 18 years to do exactly the same, plus the union funding you get, paid from the pockets of your constituents whether they support you or not?
The more of this crap I read, the less the piss-poor Tory campaign and inept tactics seem to matter.
Keep it up lefties - you might be doing the Tory cause more good than you ever thought possible…
30
“And the end of adversierail,two-party ‘yah-boo’ politics,with cross-party co-operation,on reflection sound more like the 21st century model our country should (and probably sooner or later will) adopt”
You mean the system where it doesn’t matter who you vote for because they will all just ignore what the electorate want and do what the political classes want all in the name of ‘concensus’?
29. And that is highly amusing Gabble.
To have you boasting that Gordon Brown has a negative rating of only -27% is astonishing - it shows how desparate things are for Labour and it remains amongst the lowest achieved by a Prime Minister shortly before an election.
No Prime Minister with Gordon Brown’s negative rating has ever one the subsequent election.
And in answer to jupiter1 - the reason Brown didn’t call the election was because the polls showed he would lose it, and now he won’t call it because the polls show he will lose it - while YouGov seems to have descended into the realms of fantasy poll weighting even it puts Labour consitently behind, the more reliable ICM shows a 9% Conservative lead!
And we now know that Labour are doing so badly in the marginals that even a 2% Conservative win could secure them an overall majority in Parliament.
24. Correct. Excellent post. Call it.
6 Talking about orgasming I note on one of the previous threads Easterross having wet dreams of 11 Conservative gains in Scotland , the reality as demonstrated by their 14% level in the subsample of this poll is they will be fortunate to hold the one seat they already have in Scotland .
30. I want a hung parliament.
I am Spartacus.
If the Tories do win a small majority with, say, 39% of the vote it is also inevitable that a lot of Labour supporters will surrender to hypocrisy by calling it an unfair result despite the fact that they won a 66 seat majority in 2005 with only 36%.
There’s no doubt that if the Tories do win a majority it will be with significantly more than 36%.
45 There are plenty of European examples of strong two-party coalitions governing reflecting the views of well over 50% of their electorates.It is doubtless irksome to those on the right on here that the hard-line right could be shut out and shut up forever by PR’s introduction;again well over 50% would heave a sigh of relief and say ‘Thank God’
34@Mr Jones. Thanks, interesting response.
Quite like the SamCam votes Labour story – I honestly think that would play well for Cameron. Anyway aren’t there loads of examples of cross-partisan political couples? Certainly John and Sally Bercow, but back in the past didn’t Clem Atlee’s missus vote Tory?
Reflects the public - there are plenty of married couples who vote in opposite ways, there’s nothing out of the ordinary about it, I can count quite a few myself.
50 I for one would not,I would say ‘Fair play,good luck-you might need it!’
by Patrick West Ham fan who cannot believe Labour may just win a fourth election March 7th, 2010 at 7:45 pm
West Ham are like Labour they will both go down in May !!!!!!
48: Can we have an offical ruling over wether sub-samples are meaningful or not? It seems they’re meaningful if you like the results, yet too small and meaningless if you don’t.
#39 Monty - actaully we say it for his good, we’re an empathetic bunch (who like eating babies…)
48. But Mark you keep telling us that looking at the subsamples is pointless! Or does that only apply when they show results that don’t suit you?
Good article about the current level of fiscal literacy in the debate
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/5824068/bring-on-the-serious-economic-debate.thtml
Includes a link to The Times, who are staring to get it. Then of course there is the Guardian, who don’t…
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/mar/07/spending-cuts-labour-election-tories
24
Bladerunner - The Director’s Cut
Rubbish poll.
The second question is hugely leading.
The first results are rather odd.
It’s a leading question, and therefore not much use.
This isn’t a partisan comment because I haven’t decided who to vote for yet, but I think supporters of a hung parliament will probably be disappointed again - simply because we seem to keep having situations in this country where a government wins a lot of elections in a row but then people finally get heartily sick of it and vote decisively the other way. Those are not good conditions for a hung parliament to emerge.
The main reason supporters of a hung parliament are able to get so excited is because the boundaries favour Labour so much, but I think Andy Cooke’s analysis will probably prove to be correct and most of the factors which have been favouring Labour in the last few elections will be reversed to a large extent.
John Rentoul also on topic
johnrentoul
The case for a hung parliament http://bit.ly/9021Mu
51
“There are plenty of European examples of strong two-party coalitions governing reflecting the views of well over 50% of their electorates.”
Really Patrick? And you know this how? Just because the parties between them have more than 50% of the vote doesn’t mean they are enacting the promises on which they were elected. Of course in Europe it is now generally accepted that manifesto promises are not to be believed and that when the parties get into the negotations they will chuck all that out of the window and just do what they want irrespective iof the wishes of the electorate.
Try talking to people in some of those countries or watching their political programmes to start to understand just how helples most people feel about the politicians who ‘represent’ them.
55 I have always said that they are meaningless , easterross ( as with Stuart Dickson ) likes to quote them endlessly , I like to poke a stick in the ant’s nest when they don’t suit their predictions .
48 - So you think we could lose DCT Mark?
Love to hear where you get your inside knowledge from. As for quoting a sub-sample to prove your point, that really is risible. The Scottish Tories will likely poll around 20% and finish ahead of the Lib Dems in vote share.
I am an advocate of a hung parliament, not only is it now probable, but I think desirable. No one votes for one however, they, (as in ‘74) are the product of a chain of events.
We’ve had 4 Tory terms, 3 Labour terms, its time for something completely different. What the outcome of a hung parliament will be, who knows, thats what makes the whole idea exciting.
65: If theres any party which should worry about its election results north of the border Mark, its the Lib Dems for sure.
Oh dear, even the Sunday Times comment pages think Ashcroft affair makes Dave look weak and shifty. Poor week for the Wobbler.
It’s a bit quite on here, and quite dull. Probably because this thread is spun off a meaningless poll that only the most dimwitted political nerd could even care to engage with.
Any proper polls out tonight?
46. Will L
Mori Satisfaction ratings:
Blair Mar 2005: -25%
Brown Feb 2010: -21%
66 No Max , I think the Conservatives will hang on to their one seat and may even gain a 2nd .
Strangely the polls in the run up to the 2005 GE also showed that the Conservatives would finish ahead of the LibDems in voteshare .
69 - I think its nice that poor lonely geeky tim has a new friend to play with
71
Gabble…. You champion Brown as less loathed than Blair.. firstly I doubt that its true.. secondly get a life..
If the hung parliament = economic disaster theme takes hold then it should have a similar effect to AV of forcing people into a binary choice.
I don’t just want a hung parliament, I want a parliament that awards seats in a way that clearly shows it is a perversion of the votes cast. If that happens in an ever greater way than normal it will hopefully lead to a real change of the system.
I sincerely hope that financial markets keep stable, after all, we will only be geting rid of a corrupt parliament and a system that is not worthy of the electorate.
73 tim’s been looking for Willie all day. I wonder if his search was rewarded?
Rather odd question imo. A hung parliament - as opposed to the decision to vote for a certain party - as nothing somebody actively chooses, it may just happen. Doubt very much whether many people will actually take that into account in the voting booth. “I relly like party x, but let’s rather vote for y to avoid an impasse in the Commons.” Sceptical.
Why does the Hung Parliament question distinguish between largest party Labour/Conservative?
IIRC the Electoral Committee established that the sitting Prime Minister controls events in a HP situation. Largest party has no real bearing on the matter.
tim & bibrad, a PB romance in 487 parts.
Back on topic.
Knowing that a tactical vote in a marginal constituency is certain to have effect is a difficult enough calculation. Expecting a tactical vote in a marginal constituency to secure a specific national outcome is even more an act of faith not reason. Yet this doesn’t mean that voters will totally disregard the probability of an hung parliament when deciding how to vote.
Given current expectations and polling predictions, the threat of a “hung parliament” outcome can only act in favour of the Tories. This is because a “hung parliament” today really means “can the Tories win enough seats to secure an overall majority?”. The prospect of an overall Labour majority is minimal.
Tories can only react to this threat by turning out in numbers to vote Conservative. Only in a small handful of Lab-LD marginals, mainly in the North (at least in England), would a constituency tactical vote for the Lib Dems make sense.
Labour voters, given current expectations, don’t really have the opportunity to secure an overall Labour majority, so the next best option of a hung parliament becomes the preferred option. This is likely to affect Con-LD and LD-Con marginals, where the residual Labour vote is likely to go to the Lib Dems. But if we now add in the threat of a “hung parliament” this can only depress such tactical voting. Those Labour voters who want a decisive government majority but can’t see it being achieved by Labour are more likely to stay at home or vote for a protest minor party than vote for a likely constituency winner.
It is Lib Dem voters that will be most affected by the threat of a hung parliament - a fact probably recognised by their disproportionate refusal in the YouGov poll to say they are “worried” by the threat. Left leaning Lib Dem voters, who do recognise a need for a decisive majority government, are likely to vote Labour in Lab-Con marginals and right leaners will lend their votes to the Tories.
By this logic, it will be the Lib Dems that will be most squeezed by the threat of a “hung parliament”. The recent VI polls may already be showing this in reduced LD shares.
76
It takes a grain of sand to produce a pearl.
The present party political system cannot last for much longer, its run its course. A hung parliament would be the first step in its dissolution, and hopefully a parliament and political parties better suited to the 21st century.
As for the markets, they’ll take a hit at first, but will soon recover, as they adapt to the change.
Not sure if this was posted before:
“Liberal Democrats rule out deal with Gordon Brown”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article7052611.ece
Entirely open, transparent. frank and truthful, with absolutely no suggestion of cover-up, subterfuge or impropriety.
Report by Party Leader to Shadow Cabinet and Conservative MPs and members, re “Ashcroft Affair” March 2010.
78 - The sitting Prime Minister has the right to try to form an understanding or coalition with parties so that he can control Parliament. However, if he is unable to do so, he does not have the right to a dissolution. If the Tories are the largest party, could the Lib Dems really co-operate with him without first exploring whether they could reach a common understanding with the Conservatives? In practice, if there is a substantial disparity between the parties, the largest party will have the whip hand.
82, they also promised an EU referendum. I don’t trust a promise from the likes of Clegg.
You can always find a majority in favour or against a proposition in a poll.
How about something tangible like “the Death Penalty”? Most polls would find a majority in favour. However when it comes to a general election and voting for a party, we find it isn’t a salient issue at all.
If you apply that to something intangible like a Hung Parliament, the chances of voters voting effectively for or against the proposition - assuming they knew how to, which they don’t - are infinitessimal…
You might as well invite the voters to vote for or against a Tory majority of 5, or 32, or 57, etc. A hung parliament is just another outcome…
“Tebbit says Lord Ashcroft should have admitted tax status years ago”
“…a formal complaint was sent last week to Cressida Dick, the head of the Metropolitan police’s specialist crime directorate. It claims that the Tory peer has gained “a pecuniary advantage by deception” by failing to keep promises that he would become a permanent resident in Britain.”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2010/mar/07/tebbit-lord-ashcroft-tax-status
“Get a f****** grip, you lightweight **** before you cost us the election.”
Response of Shadow Cabinet, Conservative MPs and members to Party Leader’s Report re “Ashcroft Affair” March 2010.
82/85 And judging by the mood music from just this weekend - all snuggling up with Gordon & Co/Oborne’s article - I wouldn’t trust them as far I could throw them.
Why oh why are the LDs being seduced AGAIN after the total shafting they got from Tony???
I never realised Lord Paul had such influence over Brown. southam must surely be on here any moment to post non stop all evening over the evils of it all.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1256036/How-Sarah-Brown-charmed-Labour-Ashcroft.html
“He is ‘Labour’s Lord Ashcroft’ – a controversial millionaire party donor who has slashed his tax bill by becoming a non-dom.
Now the secret role played by Sarah Brown in wooing Lord Paul in the months before her husband became Prime Minister can be revealed for the first time.”
“Three months after she moved into No10, Mrs Brown was given an honorary degree at the University of Wolverhampton, where Lord Paul is chancellor.”
I’m sure thats just a coincidence ………..
“The couple soon noted Mrs Brown’s special relationship with the peer in this period, counting four visits to The Grange with her sons, John and Fraser.
‘They came to swim in the pool even though they had their own at Chequers,’ said Mr Barkes.”
“‘Sarah and Lord Paul were very close. He seemed to have a fatherly affection for her. We couldn’t see why a busy young mother would want to listen to him, but of course he is Gordon Brown’s biggest benefactor.
‘The pattern of her visits was that she would go to Lord Paul’s library with him and talk politics, while the boys played.”
Probably just discussing her hero……….
O/T Would it be worthwhile asking OGH to put on the list of banned words?
89, some girls like it rough. A core of the Lib Dems secretly enjoy being abused by Labour. It means they get to play the victim and get the moral high horse because, as they haven’t been in power for a century, they can blame all today’s ills on the other parties.
19. Labour did quite well versus UNS in 1979. IIRC, the Tory majority should have been around 60, instead of 43. In 1983, I think UNS was spot on, give or take a seat for all parties…
72 - And of course Mark most of the more recent polls in the Scottish Parliament elections of 2007 showed the Lib Dems ahead of the Tories. Didn’t work out that way.
17 Nick P - Not convinced a significant number of supporters of party A will switch to party B that they dislike merely to avoid a HP.
No, but Con/LD waverers flirting with the LibDems might well come their senses.
I agree with Mike that the question is a bit leading; even allowing for that, it is extraordinary that 39% of LibDem voters say they are worried about a hung parliament.
Can Bribrard just go away? He’s like Gabble without the whimsy.
Re my 91. Well that was self-censorship!
O/T Would it be worthwhile asking OGH to put A-s-h-c-r-o-f-t on the list of banned words?
84: Thats illogical Rod. There is no real difference between a majority of say 35 and 55. (Ok it means the PM has to be a little more careful keeping people onside maybe). But the implications of a hung parliment are real, large and potentially costly.
92
well that’s one way of putting it!
Seriously, WTF are they thinking of even contemplating this? Paddy was no one to be messed with and he was made a right chump of - Clegg doesn’t have half his strength and he thinks that this time it’ll be different
Vote Yellow, Get Brown.
89 The cultural hegemony is anti-Tory.
98: Having said that though, I don’t think it’ll alter many peoples minds. The individual voter can just about grasp tactical voting, but the overall seat figures and potential make-up of the parliment and the consquences of that probably won’t be in the thought processes of most people.
What this whole question is really about is the particular way in which millions of voters’ wishes are inevitably disregarded in a democracy.
With the current system, millions of voters’ wishes are disregarded as a direct result of the election result.
On the other hand, with PR voters’ wishes are disregarded in the back-room deals that go on between the parties.
Same thing, just happens in a different way.
OT: Seriously what does John lloyd need to do to get the sack. How much cash has been poured into British Tennis for 1 individual who would probably have made it.
what about all the fee-paid other losers taking the LTA for a ride. bunch of losers and incompentents.
Are we expecting a Sun YouGov this evening?
42 CarlottaVance
It is not either a ‘yes’ or ‘no’.
Tony Blair made the decision having taken into account the advice given by the Honours Scrutiny Committee.
If you have a problem with the decision take it up with Tony Blair or his successor. Be quick as you only have a few weeks left to get a sympathetic ear.
The amount of tax paid by Lord Ashcroft either as calculated in advance as a possible total by William Hague or as calculated retrospectively by HMRC is now entirely irrelevant to the original decision taken by Tony Blair as Prime Minister.
102 The real problem (imo) is all the available systems are bad when you combine it with the amount of power that results from the system (whatever it was). If power was split up with its own separate elections e.g county education councils, county police councils, county health councils etc then swings and roundabouts would average things out better than PR for the whole shebang.
24 I doubt Brown has missed an opportunity to win. Perhaps he’s missed an opportunity for a hung parliament. I think he’s probably missed (at least I personally hope he has) the best opportunity from a party point of view, but he still has a chance and that chance from his own personal point of view is probably more attractive than a certain defeat albeit saving much of Labours bacon. If every possible election date was equally ok in terms of carrying implications then I’m 100% sure we’d have 3rd June. Of course in reality that looks a bit bad in some ways. I still think it’s a very strong runner, but favourite is obviously 6th May unless some excuse can be rumbled up.
99 Vote blue get economic disaster
“No 10 in row over spin doctor Charlie Whelan
(…)No 10 denied that Whelan, political director of Unite, the powerful trade union, was being lined up to return to the heart of government as the prime minister’s spokesman.
However, it is understood that Whelan, famed for his colourful language, is to be given a leading role at Labour HQ during the election campaign.”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article7052612.ece
Not sure if this has been posted:
http://iaindale.blogspot.com/2010/03/first-class.html
102 Andy, I’m agnostic about voting systems and I see the pushing of voting reform in response to the expenses scandal as a complete red herring.
The expenses scandal is an issue of integrity in public office. IMHO we need to get people of integrity into parliament. Then those people can deal with voting reform in due course, as & when they see the need.
Good to see that John Major’s nasty political stunt has not gained the traction it did in 2007:
“Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg also defended the visit.
“It is right that the PM should go to Afghanistan - it’s his constitutional duty to show our collective gratitude,” he told Boulton.”
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/Politics/John-Major-Accuses-Gordon-Brown-Of-Unbecoming-Behaviour-For-A-Prime-Minister-For-Afghanistan-Visit/Article/201003115568731?lpos=Politics_News_Your_Way_Region_6&lid=NewsYourWay_ARTICLE_15568731_John_Major_Accuses_Gordon_Brown_Of_Unbecoming_Behaviour_For_A_Prime_Minister_For_Afghanistan_Visit
64 Sweden,Norway and Denmark-apart from the price of alcohol,my idea of utopia
112. Nick Clegg opposes an opponent non-shocker.
91, AnneJGP - list of banned words is listed (on green pannel just below and to the right) under “Pages”
108 Mark Senior, economic disaster is probably on the menu whichever GE outcome we get.
According to @markpack (Mark Pack) on Twitter
Good news from BPIX: they’re applying to join the British Polling Council
Morris Dancer, F1 - What did you make of Massa’s comments regarding the slower teams? I think I remember you saying that you thought he was a worthwhile bet. Seems to me to be the wrong sort of mindset for someone that thinks they are going to win. Mind you I still have him as one of my smallest negatives. (Ever since I decided Rosberg was extraordinary value I’ve not had too many positive results bar the young lad)
109 - Whelan? Typical stuff from Brown - he seems to have surrounded himself with this sort of person for far to long now.
98. No it isn’t. I’m not debating the rights or wrongs of a hung parliament. I’m saying it’s fanciful to believe that “the voters” [in reality a tiny fraction of them] can prevent an outcome that is otherwise inevitable.
Example. In 1997 I was fearful of a Labour landslide, so the rational thing for me to do in my constituency was to vote Tory, which I did for the only time in my life. It had no effect…
I knew what to do. Most people who are fearful of a hung parliament, assuming their fear is really important enough to make it their overriding consideration (a huge IF), won’t know what to do. Studies have shown most people have no real understanding of how the electoral system works, or how votes are translated into seats…
118, not seen his comments (not been online for much of today). Disparaging, was he?
Plato - YouGov daily polls are out on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday & Saturday nights. They will go fully daily once the election is called I believe.
Nick Herbert on Straight Talk
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b00rdslx
108 I had to chuckle whilst reading this extract from the excellent autobiography by Denis Healey;’The Time of My Life’
‘In the early 1980s the Tories had a Medium Term Finanical Strategy.The irreverent ,using the intials of the acronym MTFS came up with ‘Margaret Thatcher’s Final Solution’
Oh happy days,generations of school-leavers doomed to the dole or Youth Trainng Scheme-those a handful of years older than me.
At least I had ‘A’ levels and one year of a degree course before I entered the labour market in spring ‘91;to the encouragement of ‘Unemployment and recession are a price worth paying’ ..off to play some music on youtube to cleanse my mind of such horrid recollections
“Hung Parliament” - do PBers think there is any truth to the rumor (now being propogated by yrs truly) that Bob Guiccione is planning to produce a tripleX feature film with this title?
To bad the late Tim Driberg is not available for to serve as consultant! BUT no doubt no shortage of other qualified applicants . . .
123 Plato
Nick Herbert was pretty rubbish, I thought.
Jackie Ashley on topic
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/mar/07/lib-dems-election-coalition-clegg
115 SSI, thank you. Actually I was proposing a word to be added to the list, but enclosed the word in angle-brackets and the word was simply swallowed. Hence my comment @97.
The truth is that the Lib Dems are in an almost impossible bind. If they seem to be leaning towards Labour or the Tories, the other party will savage them. Tory columnists are already warning of secret meetings between Labour and the Lib Dems so that, in effect, a vote for Clegg would be a vote for Brown. Labour tacticians are similarly ready to claim if you vote for that nice Mr Clegg, you’ll be letting in Cameron, Osborne and their deep cuts agenda by the back door.
124 If you think the early nineties were worse than now, you are delusional.
124:And today Patrick? Youth unemployment..a life on the dole, benicfts and no-job youth training which goes no way.
126 Haven’t watched it yet so will bear that in mind!!
122 Thanks SLN
117 Since it took Angus Reid approx 4 months to be approved by the BPC, it would seem unlikely that BPIX will become a member before the GE. Somewhat unfortunate timing to say the least.
“Peter Mandelson raises stakes in Lord Ashcroft row”
“…the business secretary said…that Ashcroft had Cameron “by the balls”, the affair showed Cameron was “too weak to pick a fight with his own party” and the Tories were “fundamentally unchanged”.”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2010/mar/07/peter-mandelson-lord-ashcroft-row
107
25th December looks like his best bet but I expect he’ll just “bottle it” again or “run off” to somewhere like Belize. He just simply refuses to “get it” and is frankly “scared” to face his date with destiny when he will be booted out by outraged voters. His best “opportunity” was last Tuesday, just before tea-time but naturally he chose to “bottle it” as he always does. Now he’ll have to pay the price and be driven from No. 10 by a baying mob with pitchforks. If he’d shown the moral courage and guts to call the election ….
134 - Peter ‘4% tax’ Mandelson really should keep his mouth shut.
For ‘4% tax’, you can also substitute ‘dodgy mortgage’, ‘resigned twice’ or ’sleazeball’.
Seth O. Logue
Sorry to shoot off last night. I only realised I was exhausted when I got Bohemia and Moravia mixed up. Next thing, I’d have forgotten the finer points of the Schleswig-Holstein Question!
128, AnneJGP - one way around this difficulty, is to “mask” the offending word, for example “poqker”
SeanT I hold two contradictory positions at once. AS THINGS STAND I predict Labour Most Seats; however I also believe, unsurprisingly, in the Knox Paradox, that the British voters will back away from a hung parliament or Five More Years of Gordon, once the reality of this GHASTLY possibility kicks in.
So, whatever happens, I will be both right, and wrong. Hooray!
I like your style. I also genuinely believe in doublethink (for, verily, that is what you are describing) - which of course means that I don’t.
Easterross … history suggests the SNP should not hold Glasgow East but it is a straight fight again between the 2 main contestants from the by-election.
John Mason, now sitting MP was the most popular councillor in Glasgow
Margaret Curran, not stupid but absolutely the worst type of West of Scotland Labour parrot fashion repeater of Brown mantra and not the most attractive of personalities.
My theory about Glasgow East is that the SNP may well hold it in the same way that Sarah Teather held Brent East - with an increased majority, where all the conventional wisdom says that it “should” be lost back to the “normal” big party.
107 Omnium
“If every possible election date was equally ok in terms of carrying implications then I’m 100% sure we’d have 3rd June. Of course in reality that looks a bit bad in some ways. I still think it’s a very strong runner, but favourite is obviously 6th May unless some excuse can be rumbled up”.
How about Gordon Brown sitting in the corner sh*tting himself, or talking himself out of orange juice in the morning in favour of grapefruit juice. Thats a pretty good reason for going on June 3rd. In fact its the only consistent explanation for everything that he’s c*cked up since 2007.
Maybe it won’t even be June 3rd.
Maybe he’ll come out on June 4th and say that he’s only just been told that an election was due, and that he has set the wheels in motion for a guaranteed election on June 3rd, 2011.
Or maybe never. Perhaps democracy has been cancelled. Its all over guys. Voting and democracy has been cancelled on environmental grounds. Pointless waste of paper you see.
121 Just stated the obvious really - but made me think that perhaps his mind wasn’t quite off the dangers. Of course that’s entirely understandable, but has been at least a small question mark in my mind over his chances. Comments were on autosport.com.
Really looking forwards to Bahrain - finally get to see if my pre-season positioning was worth the effort. The first season I’ve really tried so early to any great extent.
140 Does anyone know [I'm sure someone does!] how many times a parliament has gone right to the wire before calling a GE?
137, old nat - Just keep in mind, that the “Illustrious Client” of Sherlock Holmes (the case in which he AND his client were bested by “the woman” aka Irene Adler) was the “King of Bohemia”.
Alternative, buy a sixpack of Bohemia, one of my favorite Mexican beers!
120 Rod Crosby
It’s fanciful to believe that “the voters” [in reality a tiny fraction of them] can prevent an outcome that is otherwise inevitable.
I think you are right when talking about General Elections. The situation is very different in By-Elections. Canvassers regularly report doorstep concern about average swing and corresponding changes in voting intention. There seems to be an urban myth that such averages will affect the outcome of the next General Election.
Have you encountered this phenomenon?
I expect most Lib/Dems and Labour voters switched in the last election, so I do not see many more left to switch this time.
40-30-20
143 And in the R4 adaptation he was played by Andrew Sachs !
Since the King was a chappy well over 6″, that always makes me smile
146 Oops 6′ not 6″ [my mind was clearly on other things
]
146
He looked shorter on the radio.
134 Easy answer why did the many Labour non doms who have funded much more to labour not have the same conditions as Ashcroft.
Looks like one rule for Labour another for the tories, wreaks of labours abuse of power.
142. 1964 and 1997 are the only other postwar examples…
130
I can assure you the early ninties was much, much worse than this: 12% interest rates for a start.
87: presumably the complainer was assuming that Cressida would mistake Belize for Brazil, and probably was right about that.
134. Putting to one side the desperate hypocrisy of Peter Mandelson, he really isn’t raising the stakes at all. It’s exactly the same reheated faux-outrage we have heard from all week and yet STILL nobody cares.
150 Thanks Mr Crosby, knew someone would know!
Mike - it’s been quite a while since we had one of your legendary polls on how PBers see the GE result as being. How about such a poll this coming week, to be repeated every two weeks until polling day. Assessing the results, especially the final outcome, against the professional pollsters will be fun.
137 oldnat
We all hit those walls!
I thought it was only West Lothian that had a “Question”.
“Tories red-faced after ‘Samantha for Labour’ gaffe”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2010/mar/07/tories-red-faced-samantha-labour-gaffe
151 Higher interest rates due to higher inflation, although neither like labour inflation in the 70s
Any remotely reasonable person would swap the position we were in in the 90s with what we are in now.
coldstone - that means you are economically illiterate the problems facing the next 2 generations in the west are of a proportion not seen for 80 years … no jobs ( all exported to the far east ) - and they are the ones that will have to repay the largess of their elders.
154. You’re welcome, and just call me Rod…
Mike
A ‘bit’ leading! Very leading, IMHO (OK, not so humble in this case, given I work in survey research.)
YouGov should either balance the into or provide balance with a second statement like:
Some people feel the best outcome at the election is for no one party to have a majority in Parliament. They think Britain’s problems would be best tackled by a coalition government. How attractive do you find that prospect?
OR
Some people say Britain’s problems are partly due to system which elects majority governments based on well under half the votes. How worried are you that this election could again produce a majority government which lacks majority support.
(For info: I am not a Lib Dem)
134 Twice disgraced Mandelson needs to sort out his priorities. It’s all very well pursuing the now boring crusade against Ashcroft, but the Secretary of State for Business has been strangely silent whilst the pharmaceutical industry has been shedding thousands of jobs this week. Funny that.
153 One thing though, Kellner commented that if the ashcroft afair went into next week, i.e. monday it might start to affect the polls. So I suggest tommorow nights headline figure will be a narrowing, but the weighting’s I am sure will be somewhat strange.
Re: Bohemia & Moravia, it’s interesting to note that since the Treaty of Versaille, the territory ruled from Prague has gradually been reduced (and not even counting the reductions made by Hittler from east to west, like a fat stick of summer sausage:
1. Following WWI, the far-eastern tail of pre-war Czechoslovakia, Trans-Carpathian Rus, was transfered to the USSR and became part of the Ukrainian SSR, now Ukraine; it’s population was and still is predominately Ruthenian/Ukrainian (that’s a whole other subject!0
2. Following the fall of the Communism, Slovakia declared it’s independence, making the remainder of old Czechoslovakia as the Czech Republic (”Chechia” being very unlikely to ever catch on in English!)
3. Note that in Czech census returns, a small but not insignificant proportion of the population self-identifies themselves as “Moravian” so that it’s not inconceivable that yet a third partition might be possible. Plus fact that some folks self-ID as “Silesian”! Not to mention that in Czech Siliesia there is a small Polish minority located in vicinity of Tecsin (sp) aka (in German) Teschin, which history buffs may remember as a trivia question from the leadup to WWII.
The Schleswig-Holstein Question is oldthink and had been officially replaced by the Ashcroft Question.
On Topic
The data from the poll seems fairly meaningless.
71% intend to vote for one of the only two GB parties who could form a Government with an overall majority. Without access to the data we can’t say for certain, but it seems likely that the 58% who want to see a Government with an overall majority are simply a subset of them.
The 55% who are worried about their not being a Government with an overall majority are likely to be a subset of Con/Lab voters as well.
This suggests the “staggering discovery” that people who don’t intend to vote Lab/Con don’t want either of these parties to have an overall majority. Even 13% of those who do intend to vote Lab/Con don’t want them to have an overall majority.
Front pages (only Independent so far)
http://www.politicshome.com/uk/article/6329/front_pages_monday_8th_march.html
Actually a very interesting story about Labour’s scorched earth strategy
126 wibbler - Nick Herbert was very clear and coherent on “Straight Talk” I thought.
Just seen the front page of tomorrow’s Independent - “Labour/Gordon Brown set for £11 billion spending spree to protect their pet projects.” This man is deranged, all the stories about a ’scorched earth’ policy I believe are true. It is now up to the MSM to stop being so bloody sycophantic and giving Labour such an easy ride and start asking some very serious questions about where is all this bloody money coming from.
163 I think that is wishful thinking by Mr Kellner - no one cares and was bored stiff before the coverage of last week.
Anyone who is remotely interested in politics has heard Labour bash on about him for YEARS - this is as relevent as the Latvian Waffen SS in polling terms.
If Gordon The Bully has zero impact, what possible traction could a Tory donor that has done nothing illegal, and who no one could spot in the queue at Tescos have?
Front pages are here. Looks like Labour are trying to leave an even more toxic economy according to the Independent with a spending spree of 11 billion extra of debt to hang around our neck.
165
Only four people in Europe understood the Ashcroft Question: one was dead, another had gone mad, one was Shadow Foreign Secretary and the other was Leader of Her Majesty’s Opposition.
Re: 1st Class MPs, in his diaries Richard Crossman noted his embarrasment over being required, as a cabinet minister, to take up an either train compartment when he traveled from his home in Banbury to London. He hated the dirty looks this earned him from other commuters, and frequently invited others (including his local Tory MP) to join him.
113
“Sweden,Norway and Denmark-apart from the price of alcohol,my idea of utopia”
I can only assume you have never had to live or work in any of them. I have. Take it from me even for a British Socialist their brand of stifling cultural uniformity and adherence to stagnant political leadership would be anathema.
Norway was once described by a visiting telecommunications minister as “The last f##king communist country in the world.”
And that was from a minister from Sweden live to the cameras on Norwegian television. (He didn’t know they were on obviously).
The price of beer is the least of your worries.
Nu lab are obviously scared sh1tless by Ashcroft or why else would they keep going on about him.
To the vast majority, funding is an oddity. Founding Crimestoppers, funding Help for Heroes and saving VC medals for the nation is real, and worthy of mass support.
As for Mandy fronting the campaign, all they are doing is reminding everyone via the media of how consistently sleazy Mandy is. Is Mandy sure that all the dodgy deals he did with Russian’s when he was a Euro commisar are really hidden? Does he want to remind us all to ask how he really afforded his house on the salary he was earning as a minister? The list goes on and maybe the media finally start asking the right questions.
Labour accused of hypocrisy over non-dom donors as Harriet Harman refuses to answer questions about her party’s major funders
Labour was accused of rank hypocrisy over non-dom donors this evening after Harriet Harman refused to answer questions about her party’s major funders. Deputy leader Miss Harman refused to say whether some of Labour’s biggest donors paid all their taxes in the UK and insisted it was a ‘private matter’.
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1256169/Labour-accused-hypocrisy-non-dom-donors-Harriet-Harman-refuses-answer-questions-partys-major-funders.html#ixzz0hWrnLdq9
A Private matter!!!!!! WTF?????
Roger, as PB’s resident Ocscar pundit, any thoughts on the chances, in the documentary category, of “The Last Campaign of Booth Gardner”?
Which documents successful and very personal effort by the former Washington State governor, who is now battling Parkinson’s Disease, to secure passage of the state’s Death with Dignity (or if your prefer, Assisted Suicide) Law.
Ed Vaizey in the Cameroon doghouse
http://blogs.wsj.com/iainmartin/2010/03/07/ed-vaizey-in-the-cameroon-dog-house/
174 Richard Tyndall
I assume you are not planning a return to Stavanger.
169. The markets will probably be asking where the money’s coming from too, ‘cos I doubt if they’ll be willing to stump up for a Brown spending spree.
175 Agreed - and the stupid thing is that his work is almost done. Attempting to push the Tories into dropping him is both futile and pointless.
I gather that he has a toy white cat in his office -
177, SSI - forgot to include following link
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/movies/2011276913_boothmovie07.html
179
I have no choice. Just as in the past I have had no choice about working in a number of other far worse places like Nigeria, Iraq and Algeria.
Now I will give you that compared to those places Norway is indeed utopia. Still doesn’t mean I have to like the place though. I’ll work there but won’t be living there from now on.
The government has suppressed reports on the state of the National Health Service, which reveal how patients’ needs have been neglected, according to The Sunday Times.
Safe in our hands?? 24 hours to save the NHS??
178 I think a role at the British Cattle Movement Service which is based at an old factory in Workington sounds perfect for him
Quick reminder: In the Loop is on at 10pm tonight BBC2/BBC HD.
181
Stuffed with £50 notes marked “Property of British Taxpayer”.
172. Candidates for All Souls fellowships will be examined on the subject, and promising careers will crumble when the Regius Professor of Logic asks mildly if the fact that non-resident does not mean non-domiciled correctly implies that resident does not mean domiciled. Or is it possible that the opposites of two non-equivalent negative expressions could themselves be equivalent?
Take your time.
183 Richard Tyndall
I found Norway the most rigid of the Nordic countries and, even allowing for its relative natural beauty, the least exciting to visit. I did however warm to the Norwegians themselves whom I found loyal, straightforward, hospitable and trustworthy: good solid friends.
They have had 13 years to do this and in the last dying months of the government they do it. Yet another elephant trap being set by the nasty party. Note the date.
Waiting times for treatment on the NHS are set to be laid down in law, Health Secretary Andy Burnham announced today.
Targets for emergency cancer referrals and non-urgent treatment are to be turned into legal rights under the NHS Constitution from April 1.
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1256164/Waiting-times-NHS-laid-law.html#ixzz0hWuP6caz
187. Nope. It’s Lord Paul who has taxpayer’s money - £270,000+ claimed as expenses.
Ashcroft only has his own money.
The Vaizey story is funny. trying to detox you party while using the leaders wife must have seemed like a good idea at the time - bodes well for the humour content of any future Tory Govt.
What the Ashcroft issue tells us about the Tory leadership is interesting.
Of course Cameron lacked the spine to tackle the issue, seemingly thinking he was going to coast to victory and it wouldn’t matter.
Hague of course battled to keep his second jobs rather than doing his primary one adequately.
A rather unpleasant cocktail of arrogance cowardice and greed.
I see Sam Cameron has since denied ever voting Labour - the whole thing appears to have been a figment of Ed Vaizey’s imagination. But the reaction shows a voracious media appetite for anything SamCam related.
Another Daily /Sunday Mail anti Cameron story bites the dust.
With reference to Sarah Cameron’s voting preferences, perhaps MI-5 could do some research? They do have experience in this field . . .
191
Apart from £127m unpaid tax.
The institute of Directors wants brown/darling to speed up deficit reduction and the ratings agencies signal that the cost of UK borrowing will increase if not satified(ie.e Labour get in)
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/europe/article7053044.ece
In other words labour get in and we are screwed.
193. The MoS was one long hatchet job on Cameron and the Conservatives. Page after page after of negative stuff! Incredible!
190 Batch File, looks like yet more make-work for our poverty-stricken legal friends.
“Most targets and standards appear to be defined in professional, organisational and political terms, not in terms of patients’ experience of care.”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/health/article7052606.ece
The worst thing is I doubt anybody is shocked this is the idiocy of Labour’s target culture.
197
Sounds good!
195. Who are you to decide how much tax someone pays or doesnt pay? His tax is only unpaid if it has been asked for, has the HMRC asked for £127 million of tax?
192 tim
Back from Macclesfield?
You are missing a line of attack here: the role played by Marlburiennes amongst women of substance. Sally Bercow, Samantha Cameron and Kate Middleton threaten an even greater hegemony than Etonians.
Their independence must have been Hannan’s influence.
195. Crap.
There was a High Court ruling many years ago that established the principle that there was nothing wrong in an individual arranging his affairs to minimise the amount of tax due - so long as the law was complied with. That’s what Ashcroft has done.
The fact that he can afford more and better accountants than you must be very annoying for you.
202. He’s fishing matey, if you ignore him then he will interact but only then.
The City and corporate Britain have become increasingly anxious after sterling sank to a 10-month low last week amid fears that the UK will see its national debt rating cut after the election. The world’s three main credit rating agencies — Fitch, Standard & Poor’s and Moody’s — have each effectively promised to delay making any decision on a downgrade until after the election, expected on May 6.
But they have warned that if they are not satisfied with a feasible and detailed plan that sets out how the £178 billion will be paid off, they will cut Britain’s credit rating. Such a move would be a disaster because the Government’s cost of borrowing would increase sharply.
George Osborne, the Shadow Chancellor, said: “This is a very significant moment in the election debate. The voices of British business are now saying what we Conservatives have been saying: earlier action on the deficit is a key to securing the recovery. It is a huge vindication of our approach.”
He added: “There is an emerging consensus that Gordon Brown’s economic approach is simply not credible. By threatening our credit rating and higher interest rates, it is threatening jobs and prosperity. That is the verdict of the businesses who are actually going to create the jobs and prosperity that Britons need.”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/europe/article7053044.ece
Ah, the next round of Ashcroft ping-pong gets under way. Have fun.
Good night all.
189
I agree. Nothing against the people themselves which makes it all the worse that they labour under such a constraining political and social system.
I always remember the adverts in Swedish cinemas along the border with Norway when Monty Python’s Life of Brian came out.
“So funny they banned it in Norway.”
Brilliant advertising but unfortunately quite close to the truth.
Sick of constant Ascroft so for the Labour diehards on here please see the Sate Broadcasters take on it. If there was anyway they could twist it they would but this time they can’t
Ashcroft cleared over £5.1m Tory donation probe
Lord Ashcroft is one of the Conservatives’ main donors
The Electoral Commission has said £5.1m of donations to the Tories from a firm belonging to Lord Ashcroft WERE LEGAL.
The commission has ruled that the donations by Bearwood Corporate Services were “LEGAL AND PERMISSABLE”, after a 14-month investigation. Firms must be “carrying on business in the UK” to be allowed to donate money to British political parties.
So Ashcroft gets a 14 month investigation and is cleared as sensible people already knew there was no case to answer now today when the spotlight rotates Hattie Madperson states that Labour doners are ‘a private matter’. In other words shut down the discussion. Why does she not just shout racist at the same time and have done with it?
Meanwhile Labour totally implodes north of the border in Glasgow though you wouldn’t know it of course. Drugs, deaths and scandal yet not even making the State Broadcasters front page but Ascroft does. More rank hypocriscy from labour and their bedmates The State Broadcaster. Call an election and quickly please!!
201
You still don’t get the unfairness that many ordinary taxpayers like me feel about the way Ashcroft arranged his affairs to not only get a place in the house of Lords and avoid paying £127m tax.
Personally I am doubly annoyed as a labour member living in a constituency which saw the Tory get in last time largely thanks to a large donation from one of Ashcroft’s companies.
*** Betting post ***
You can get 7/2 on the TUV in North Antrim with William Hill and 1/2 on the DUP with Ladbrokes. Since these are the only serious contenders, you can back both to guarantee a profit. Alternatively, you can look for the value. For myself, I’d say the William Hill odds on the TUV are about right.
193. The Sunday Mail has printed a number of unfounded smears based on outright falsehoods against Cameron. It is as if Damian McBride is sitting in the Editors room writing the bogus stories. They are scatting on thin ice. Sooner or later they are going to get sued.
151 That depends if you’re a borrower or a saver. One of the curious features of the current recession is the widespread belief that savers have a duty to lend out their money at almost zero interest, at a time when inflation is 3-4%.
Indeed, economists like David Blancheflower take the view that savers and employees have a duty to subsidise people who are heavily indebted.
Evening all.
I take it there’s some new stories coming out now, or are we going to talk about party funding issues?
105 - I mentioned something like that earlier. If he doesn’t resign tomorrow he’s a shameless disgrace. The quote: ‘It was a 50/50 sort of match before the start, and they were the better team’ made me choke on my tea.
re Sam Cam
I could just about believe Mrs C having voted or contemplated voting for Blair IF her husband had not been standing as a Tory candidate in each of the three election in which Blair was Labour leader. The fact that he was makes it inconceivable.
My wife has never voted Tory in her life but, if I was standing, I know, out of personal loyalty, she would vote for me.
But what really was incredible was the subdeck in the Mail on Sunday claiming Mrs C could even vote for Brown. Lay aside the fact that Brown is probably the worst PM we’ve ever had, the personal animosity between him and Sam Cam’s husband is so great there is no way she could even consider voting for Brown - unless her and DC were in the midst of the most acrimonious divorce possible.
It’s a completely fatuous idea other than in a Jordan-Peter Andre two-fingers-to-you insult, which I think, from all the evidence, seems a little unlikely in the Camerons’ case.
I can only think Vaizey was playing games along the lines some on here have speculated - ie it may play well for Cameron to be seen to have an independent wife - in which case, I think, he was being too smart by half.
205 agreed
Tax avoidance is legal
Tax evasion is not
Ashcroft cleared of all charges after a 14 month investigation
End off.
216. It is high time that Mrs Cameron took legal action against the Sunday Mail, demanding a formal apology and acknowledgement that a blatant lie was printed on the front page.
All damages should be donated to charity.
199. Staggering, it exists right through the public sector, it is so embedded, i wonder how employees and managers would cope without them.
Seriously, police officers, local government workers, nhs workers are entirely and utterly driven by targets and ‘guidance’.
Targets and guidance are not only the lifeblood of the front line staff, they are the very pixie dust of managers. Your department, your teams measurement of success is determined by your ability to meet the set target.
The target might be silly, it might be counter productive, it might even be downright immoral. It doesnt matter, you are measured by it. Your job performance is rated by it, your career is dependent on it, your boss demands it.
In such a situation our own personal needs over ride professional judgement, ie if we do everything to guidance, and achieve the targets, it doesnt matter if it is wrong, we wont be fired, and will be a candidate for promotion.
211 Perhaps, but Labour has courted such people for years.
211. You want to be able to minimse your taxes like Ashcroft, though on a smaller scale?
First step - do not be an employee and for heavens sake do not have a job where you pay PAYE. ‘Cos if you do you’re stuffed, you’re one of the captive milch-cows that provides the money that the gov pisses up the wall.
Start a business, become self-employed. At least then you can fight for your own money.
211 Personally I am doubly annoyed as a labour member living in a constituency which saw the Tory get in last time largely thanks to a large donation from one of Ashcroft’s companies.
So nothing to do with the labour candidate being rejected by the electorate simply because they did not want him as their representative? You people absolutely deserve each other you really do. Jeeezzz!!!
211 valley boy
Tories concerned about unfairness and the “ordinary taxpayer”? Pigs flying? Cameron having policy?
211 - But I’m a Tory and I get annoyed by rank hypocrisy.
Labour are only whining because they have less money. You didn’t cry foul when you were being bankrolled more than the Tories.
The idea that Labour non-dom Lords are different because Lord Ashcroft said he’d give all his money to Gordy’s giveaway pot is, frankly, laughable.
Aarrrgghh - OK I won’t comment on this stupid argument again.
178 - “Labour was accused of rank hypocrisy over non-dom donors this evening after Harriet Harman refused to answer questions about her party’s major funders. Deputy leader Miss Harman refused to say whether some of Labour’s biggest donors paid all their taxes in the UK and insisted it was a ‘private matter’.”
I know politics can be a sordid business but Labour really have plumbed new depths in all sorts of ways.
mzzzzz Harman (up the sisters, unless hubby needs a safe seat) was shown up badly on tv this morning, thats twice in 7 days.
Seriously, who will be leader when Gormo goes?
I hate people who say how bad interest rates are. For people who will possible never have the pleasure of owning a house. Normal interest rates on credit cards are over 20% and interest from bank accounts or isas are very small. So current interest rates are disgusting and should not be seen as a positive. The way it is at the moment people will riot in the near future due to a suppressive home owning class.
186 - “The government has suppressed reports on the state of the National Health Service, which reveal how patients’ needs have been neglected, according to The Sunday Times.”
Typical Labour really.
Not really big on open democracy are they - well only iro Ashcroft
194 - “A rather unpleasant cocktail of arrogance cowardice and greed.”
How nice of tim to sum up Labour for us.
211 I’d been self employed for years until recently.I still don’t think you lot get it.What Ashcroft has done is not acceptable to most reasonable people.It seems that you Tories cannot accept that Ashcroft was out of order in the way he arranged his affairs.
222 I agree there were other factors, but I can assure you it was obvious by the amount of literature put out and the number of activists that came in from outside the area that the Tories had access to funding that Labour could only dream of and yes it did make a difference in a marginal constituency.
Ernst Stavro Blofeld Fund For Patriotic Tax Dodging Party Proclaims Total Victory In Totally Open And Transparent Belize General Election. Mugabe and Cameron send faxes of congratulation.
The MoS headline today on the back of the Vaizey comment ties in very nicely with In the Loop being on tonight. Funniest bit of the headline was the insertion of the word ‘might’ have voted Labour. Desperate.
Timesonline - Brown accused of breaking promise for new equipment in Afghanistan
“Gordon Brown was criticised by the Conservatives yesterday after it was claimed that the Government had merely repeated an earlier announcement to replace Snatch Land Rovers with new vehicles — while cutting the order by half.”
What possessed Brown’s handlers to allow such a picture of Brown reflected in that plaque, truly awful and so cynical on the back of the timing of this trip after Chilcott.
The irony about the Mail is that during all those years they waged war against Tone and Cherie everyone assumed they were doing it for the Tories - When all along they were doing it for Brown.
Now Cam and Sam find themselves getting the Tone and Cherie Treatment.
229. How many conservative candidates had access to the £10,000 communications allowance, plus the tax payers money laundered by the Unions?
231 That is an amazing pix - an award winner if ever there was one.
233
4
229. If the government wanted to reduce tax avoidance they shouldn’t have created the largest tax code in the world. Every time some new exemption, allowance, or to be blunt attempt to buy votes is created it gives accountants yet another way of playing the system to reduce the tax their rich clients play.
Labour moan about tax avoidance but their actions promote it.
211
Trouble is it works both ways. I work ina number of countries that have substantially higher tax regimes than the UK (yes there are a few left). But funnily enough I don’t get to choose to pay my tax here in the UK I have to pay it in the country it is actually earned and so I end up paying substatntially higher rates of tax.
Better still because the UK insist I pay employers and employees national insurance in the UK even though I am a single employee company (they won’t let me go self employed because of IR35 rules) I end up paying just under 60% of my total income to one or another governments.
So please don’t come on here whinging and moaning about how hard done by you are. Thats life. Get over it.
211. Before I retired, I was self-employed too. I got myself a good accountant, didn’t you? And wasn’t his job to make sure your books were clean and to advise you on how to minimise your tax liability? If he didn’t he wasn’t doing his job.
What Ashcroft has done is eminently reasonable, legal too. Any sane person would do exactly the same. It’s only when you’re talking about other people’s money that you start to think differently.
Giving money to governments is like giving whisky to alcoholics.
I am not a Tory, though I do want Brown kicked out into the gutter.
233 - Interesting point, I hear that the Unions are spending more in the marginals than Ashcroft.
Strangely enough not a lot said by Southam etal about that…….
238. Meant for 229. Apols.
229 How sad.
Maybe the Labour Party should have raised their game, to cope with efficient Conservative campaigning.
gordo under fire again
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/7392534/Former-Scottish-First-Minister-spends-70000-travelling-world-as-envoy.html
“Gordon Brown has been accused of a “very costly” political stitch-up after it was revealed a former Scottish First Minister has spent nearly £70,000 of taxpayers’ money travelling the world as his envoy.
The role was invented for Jack McConnell, a former mathematics teacher with no diplomatic background, after the party lost the 2007 Scottish Parliament elections to the SNP by only one seat.”
If anyone finds a moral compass laying around, return to Clowning Street pleease
Nice thread, but it lacks something - we need someone pro-Labour who can post witty, amusing or satirical comments.
If only we could find one….
211 Valleyboy so did the Inland Revenue or Lord AShcroft actually tell you what his overseas earnings during the past 10 years were?
No, thought not so keep your Lord Mandelson fantasy numbers to yourself.
Do you think Lord Ashcroft should not have paid tax on his overseas income in the countries where he earned it? You lefties are fcuking thick. Non-doms pay tax on their overseas income in the jurisdiction where it is earned. Such matters are covered by fairly complex international arrangements. Oh yes and you will find that thousands of working class Britons who work overseas in the oil industry among others are non-doms too.
Lord Ashcroft is a working peer. He was nominated for his peerage as a political appointment or maybe you just think the House of Lords should only have Labour working peers. After all both Tony Blair and Gordon Brown between them have created more Life Peers than their 5 predecessors.
Clearly you also object to Lord Paul being granted the right to have access directly to the Queen because he donated money to Gordon Brown’s leadership campaign and lets the Brown children play in his swimming pool on a regular basis. That really compares favourably with a man who set up Crimestoppers, substantially funds Help for Heroes because the Government has gone to court to try and reduce the compensation soldiers received for having legs blown off in Tony Blair’s illegal war. Oh yes and did Lord Paul pay millions of pounds to gather the largest collection of VCs so that they can be housed in a special museum to be enjoyed by those British citizens who are proud of the long and distinguished military heritage this country can truthfully boast.
So go back to your valley and prepare for opposition and politcal oblivion. Can’t come soon enough.
Labour and open democracy part 533
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/onthefrontline/7393809/Army-faces-Afghan-gag-for-election.html
231 There’s a better photograph of Brown from the same series -
http://www.arrse.co.uk/Forums/download/id=36551.html
217 - Whether his donation via Bearwood were legal is a side issue - surely you can see this.
The main issue is what Ashcroft agreed to when he was up for a peerage, what he told Haig/Cameron and why they were unable to get him to tell them the truth (damning) or whether they actually knew the truth about the non-Dom status and deliberately failed to come clean to the public (much more damning).
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2010/mar/02/ashcroft-tax-correspondence
Check out the penultimate document. Ashcroft clearly states to William Hague on March 23rd 2000 that ‘I hereby give you my clear and unequivocal assurance that I have decided to take up permanent residence in the UK again before the end of this calendar year’
Now as far as I am aware you cannot be a ‘permanent’ resident and a non-dom - these things are incompatible.
More broadly these sort of things resonate with voters when they add to or confirm suspicions voters may already hold. In this case it is that the Tory high command are an old-boy network of the super-rich who frankly, when push comes to shove, will always put ‘their own first’. Now the Tories have created this impression themselves, Bullingdon boys all round, inheritance tax cuts for the super rich multimillionaires etc. Had they not done this the Ashcroft story would have been over in 24 hours. As it is it looks like running on well into next week.
In the Loop = desperately disappointing. Dumbed down out of recognition.
246. that should be used against Browm - on posters.
245.Telegraph - “Liam Fox, the shadow defence secretary, said he would table an emergency question in the House of Commons demanding an explanation on Monday.
“Given the recent visit of the Prime Minister, this is a bad joke,” he said. “There is clearly one rule for Gordon Brown, when he wants to use the armed forces as political props, and another for reporters who want to tell the public what is being done in their name.
“It’s a truth blackout. Nothing, especially the truth, is to stand in the way in Brown’s election. Our armed forces can fight and die, but not write or speak. Any critics of the Government are to be banned from having any contact with the press. This is the grotesque endgame of New Labour. They want to bury bad news and bury the truth.”
Colonel Douglas Young, chairman of the British Armed Forces Federation, expressed “surprise” at the decision.
“It didn’t happen in 1945 - there was no question of limiting reporting at that time simply because an election was happening and I don’t see why there should be any questions of that now. Are we to stop operations during this period? Obviously not, and if operations are in process they should be reported upon in the normal way.”
That would be a truly shocking development, and in light of Brown’s visit yesterday, yet another cynical attempt at controlling the media during the GE campaign. Lets see how the MSM deal with such an attempt to put these kind of restrictions on them in Afghanistan. This has echo’s of what happened back in 2006, and they need to make sure it doesn’t happen again.
What next, a black out of reporting casualties too?
247
Except it clearly isn’t resonating as the polls show no noticable change (or in fact show an improvement in the Tory position) since the whole Ashcroft sideshow blew up.
211 valleyboy You still don’t get the unfairness that many ordinary taxpayers like me feel about the way Ashcroft arranged his affairs to not only get a place in the house of Lords and avoid paying £127m tax.
On the contrary, we understand entirely; it is quite clear that Labour and LibDem activists think it is unfair.
What we don’t understand is:
(a) Why on earth you don’t feel the same sanse of unfairness in respect Lords Mittal and Paul, or Sir Ronald Cohen.
(b) Since the tax lasws which you think are so unfair have not been changed in the last 13 years of Labour misrule, and indeed it was the Conservatives who proposed a scheme for taxing non-doms, we are puzzled that your anger, were it to be genuine, seems to be directed at the wrong party.
Given (a) and (b), one can only assume that you are motivated entirely by base partisanship and hypocrisy.
243 Disraeli
I agree. We need to balance the measured, witty and unfailingly logical Tory comments. Every single one makes their point fairly and courteously and without a shred of paranoia or blinkered partisanship. Why can’t the Labour stooges match these standards instead of ranting on about tax-dodgers?
Today I met a 2005 Conservative voter who will abstain in 2010. He is my in-law and his constituency is Bromsgrove. He will abstain, not because of Julie Kirkbride’s expenses, but because her replacement is an A-lister from London. I wonder how many votes the Tories have lost through the A-list … generally the A-list operates in the safer seats, I think. If this is so, the lost votes generally occur where the Tories can most afford them. Perhaps the effect is enough to reduce Tory support by 2-3 points ,,,, I’m not sure.
249 I’ve just blogged it - it really is the pix of the year so far, sums up the whole thing completely.
What I find peculiar is that Gordon is supposedly on a diet - he must be about 3 or 4 stone overweight at least to have a gut the size of which is on display in his Afghanistan photos.
When I was really busy at work, I didn’t find time to eat and the weight fell off me as a I rushed about and lived on cups of tea during meetings.
251. So would you not have expected a significant Tory bounce in the polls following the Tory conference last weekend and the Cameron speech? Most of us would have - yet it failed to materialise - Ashcroft negative effect, countering conference/speech positive effect perhaps.
255.To actually have his photo taken reflected on a memorial plaque in Afghanistan, yuck, it doesn’t get any worse than that.
250. Silly decision by MoD, they should remember that rumour is more damaging than fact and if the facts aren’t available, rumour will multiply.
What with this and suggestions that the gov is looking at putting VAT on food, it looks as if the Brown mob is entering cock-up mode again.
The end result of the global warming scam would have been a carbon target-driven industry. Eventually we’d have all ended up like Ukraine in the 30s with millions of starving cannibals.
274.’Now as far as I am aware you cannot be a ‘permanent’ resident and a non-dom - these things are incompatible.’
Then you aren’t aware of much then are you.
I would get your facts right or choose a more appropriate nome du plume.
sky - front pages
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/UK-News/Papers-Newspaper-Front-Pages-On-Monday-March-8-2010/Media-Gallery/201003115569077?lpos=UK_News_Left_Promo_Region_0&lid=GALLERY_15569077_Papers%3A_Newspaper_Front_Pages_On_Monday_March_8%2C_2010
more cr ap on Ash croft from the Scott Trust’s subsititute for toilet paper, a paper which has avoided tax for years.
funnily enough the rake’s progress from Glasgow still seems to be off front pages, how do the nats and others from Scotland view the story, after all ten days ago Purcell met Brown.
Army faces Afghan gag for election
British journalists and TV crews are to be banned from the Afghan front line once a date for the election has been set, while senior officers will be prohibited from making public speeches and talking to reporters.
MoD websites will also be “cleansed” of any “non-factual” material including anything containing troops’ opinions of the war, according to a memo leaked to The Daily Telegraph.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/onthefrontline/7393809/Army-faces-Afghan-gag-for-election.html
254. The A-Listers tend to be of a much higher standard then the average candidate, and are more then likely able to gain a wider level of support, that upsetting the odd traditional wont make much difference.
247. “Now as far as I am aware you cannot be a ‘permanent’ resident and a non-dom - these things are incompatible.”
Wrong. You’ve missed the whole point. These concepts have a precise legal definition and are not mutually incompatible. Lord Paul is a permanent resident but non-domiciled for tax purposes (and a Privy Counsellor). That’s why the fuss about Ashcroft is just a long, boring smear.
254. I doubt 2% of people would even know that the candidate was on the A list. If there is any effect I would be astonished if it was more than 0.1% and of course the A list candidate may gain other voters.
The public do not follow politics in anything like the detail people on here think.
253 Bribrand. Yes, there are too many posters on all sides guilty of “blinkered partisanship”.
Unfortunately you are part of the problem, not the solution.
If you ever want to be properly heard on this site, then I suggest that you model yourself on pro-Labour posters such as Jonathan, Southam Observer, Labour Man, Nick Palmer and (all-too rarely posting these days), Tyson.
255
PM Overweight Shock Horror! Typical of Labour fat cats to be putting on the pounds when everyone else is having to live off cups of tea. Doesn’t that just sum up what has happened to this country under Brown? In the days of the last Tory government biscuits were in plentiful supply during meetings. That’s why things MUST CHANGE! Typical!
265 And of course the illustrious Patrick ‘Man of Many Handles’ of West Ham!
247 Professor Davey
As I have said upthread in answer to CarlottaVance, it was the decision of Tony Blair to recommend to the Queen that Lord Ashcroft was made a Working Peer. Tony Blair, as Prime Minister, was responsible not only for the decision itself but also for the Honours Scrutiny Committee that reviewed Ashcroft’s nomination.
Do you not consider it suspicious that neither Tony Blair’s letter to William Hague confirming that Michael Ashcroft had been recommended for a peerage nor the written clearance of the Honours Scrutiny Committee have been released for publication?
It was the Prime Minister of a Labour government that made Michael Ashcroft a peer (albeit on the nomination of the Leader of the Opposition). It was the Honours Scrutiny Committee that reported to the Prime Minister that cleared his nomination.
As to the difference between “permanent resident” and “long term resident” and its tax implications, this was not a ruse by the Conservative Party or William Hague, it was accepted and possibly even proposed by the Cabinet Office and Honours Committee both reporting to Tony Blair.
Your complaints, and those of the Guardian, are misdirected and disingenuous.
260.Hilariously funny on The Guardian’s part that it is so wrapped up in its own world it even puts Mandelson’s name in the headline, unable, apparently, to see it makes a mockery of the whole thing.
Wallies.
260.The Guardian does on Lord Ashcroft again?! And after a week of over 50 articles, we now have the hilarious front page headline of Mandelson passing judgment on other politicians or billionaires. Priceless, the Guardian is now officially a joke.
270 Snap.
260 - The Guardian in cracked record mode again.
269/270 I don’t think the Guardian do irony
It is very amusing
271.SallyC, snap! My sister got it right, when she saw Mandelson pop up on the telly to attack the Tories and pass judgment on this story, she just laughed.
If it is all above board why did Ashcroft only tell Hague he had remained a non-dom a couple of months ago (if the reports are to be believed) keeping him in the dark for nearly 10 years, despite the regular media attention on his status. Why again was Cameron kept in the dark until a month ago.
This guy isn’t just a donor - he is part of the Tory high command and a Deputy Chairman.
275. Even Labourhome were mocking his intervention on the matter.
After his hilarious outing on ITV you’d have thought he’d give it a miss.
I personally think Lord Ashcroft is a very malign influence on politics - not for legal or moral reasons, but simply because no party should be dependent on big donations. We just don’t need as that many billboards and leaflets.
I also think that anyone who sits in Parliament should be domiciled in the UK.
Labour’s hypocrisy is far worse though. Glad Marr decided to put at least a little bit of pressure on Harman this morning. Her collapse and utter floundering was a sight for sore eyes.
231 Great pic.
248 “The Thick of It” needs a sense of claustrophobia imo. “In the Loop” lost that aspect.
268. Seth - so if it was not a ruse by William Hague or the Tory Party then do you believe it to have been a ruse by Michael Ashcroft? As both William Hague have recently said that they were not aware Lord Ashcroft never gave up his non dom status until very recently this appears to me to be the case.
262. The A-Listers tend to be of a much higher standard then the average candidate, and are more then likely able to gain a wider level of support, that upsetting the odd traditional wont make much difference.
264 I doubt 2% of people would even know that the candidate was on the A list. If there is any effect I would be astonished if it was more than 0.1% and of course the A list candidate may gain other voters.
The public do not follow politics in anything like the detail people on here think.
Well, we shall see. This chap has many contacts and his contacts also have many contacts etc. etc. It may also affect activict effort. The results will show if there’s any A-list effect, negative or positive (although there’ll clearly be some difficulty in disentangling effects of previous incumbent …. plus many of these candidates are ethnics and/or gays … which might have an effect).
276 And Lord Paul has access to the Queen as a Privy Counsellor.
And has claimed over £300k in expenses including for a home he has never slept in. And Ashcroft hasn’t claimed a penny and is a noted charitable philanthropist.
Do give it a rest - you look like a twit.
276.To be able to maintain such faux outrage after a week of lefties getting nowhere deserves a round of applause.
280. insert “and david cameron” after William Hague.
276.
Everyone who has given a million pounds to Labour has ended up with a knighthood or a peerage.
Why is that?
Many are non-doms.
Why is that?
Some still refuse to reveal their tax status, even though Sir Lord Mandelson of Hypocrisy by the Sea said they should.
Why is that?
Remember the New York socialite, Leona Helmsley?
“Only the little people pay tax”
283. Goupillon.
Were you at the Reading match?
A great game by both sides.
268 Plato. “And of course the illustrious Patrick ‘Man of Many Handles’ of West Ham!”
Very true, mustn’t forget Patrick! Trouble is that he has so many handles it is difficult to know what to call him!
Anyone know what time we will know the Oscar Best Actor decision?
And, depending on the hour, where it can be watched?
278 I’m surprised by your post.
Ashcroft gave a lot of money several years ago [to save the Tories from meltdown under Hague] and it’s down to 300k now.
It’s less that 1% of all the money the Tories have raised since 2001 IIRC and a tiny fraction of what is being spent in the marginals - his influence is about strategy and tactics not £££ spent.
That’s what Labour is really frightened of - and are using his supposed ‘money’ as a victim card - it’s not like they haven’t had millions and millions from the unions or their own Lords/non-doms during the same period.
If they mispent it - shame on them for cocking up their finances as well as the country’s!
The Telegraph story about gagging the MSM in Afghanistan during the GE is a much bigger story tonight. That is a truly malign development in UK politics right now. And the MOD and this government have form for this back in 2006.
285. just like lord high commissionar, first minister and general factotum and ex EU apparatchik Peter Mandelson?
278 ‘No party should be dependent on big donations’
Indeed. Look at the malign influence that the Unite Union has over Labour.
286. StJohn - yes it was I had a seat very close to the Villa fans and had a very good view of all 6 goals. John Carew still is some player when he gets going - I wonder what Martin O’Neill said to your players at half time?
284. Hague taunted Hapless that those who live in glass houses shouldn’t throw stones, the term glass house doesnt really convey the situation, maybe a glass house which is full of fragile china might be closer to the truth…
But, as usual of late, Labour have got away with it. Dismissing its impact because it hasnt moved the polls immediately, doesnt mean it hasnt impacted peoples view of the Conservatives.
291 What tax has Mandy avoided?
285 Don’t be mean. He paid a whole 4% on his massive salary we all coughed up for when he was the EU’s High Badger of Uselessness in Brussels.
294 If you look at the polling sub questions - really no one cares about this or bullygate - they are bothered about bread and butter issues.
Even I don’t care about Lord Paul or his dodgy expenses - it’s a side-show that just doesn’t matter at all.
Goupillon. Yes. Carew was awesome.
Glad you got to the match.
Villa have a mountain to climb to beat Chelsea. But we’re still in there, so who knows?
This about Ashcroft is very boring. Everyone recognises that parties have to be funded by either a) very rich creeps or b) the taxpayer. And everyone hates idea b) just that tiny bit more than idea a).
And there is no suggestion that the law is, or was, going to change in Ashcroft’s favour to allow him to advertise cigarettes on racing cars or get a fast-track passport or protect his revenue stream against music pirating. So a people in glass houses scenario, and no one cares anyway.
In other news: can neo endogenous growth theory demonstrate that 200 armoured vehicles is exactly the same thing as 400 armoured vehicles? Stay tuned.
295. Income tax at a preferential rate paid to EU commissioners who leave their job. He was in receipt of this while sitting in the Lords.
All a bit silly, but he started throwing muck. Problem for Mandy is that he is one of those people that becomes part of the collective knowledge of the nation. People know he has resigned for dodgy behaviour in the past, and him attacking others, well, its like Mao criticising Stalin on human right abuses.
Tax doesn’t have to be ‘taxing’ when your Mandy, even though he seems to struggle with a mortgage application form.
The attack on Lord Ashcroft is not motivated by his tax status. It is a party political attempt to discredit him in the eyes of the electorate with the intent of neutralising the advantages the Tories hold in the marginals.
The Tax status of Ashcroft is shared by around 100 peers (according to Lord Paul) and matches that of donors to both the Labour and Conservative parties.
It is inconceivable that a properly constituted Honours Scrutiny Committee following due process would impose tax status conditions on one nominee for peerage that did not apply equally to all others.
The issue considered by the HSC was the availability of Ashcroft to attend the House of Lords as a Working Peer. His residence in the UK was the critical in determining his availability to sit, not where he would pay tax.
Ashcroft’s tax options were discussed with the Cabinet Office and/or HSC with James Arbuthnot acting as intermediary. You will note that the Ministers criticising the tax status of Ashcroft have been careful to clarify that they are speaking as agents of the Labour Party and not the Crown. The clear implication of which is that Ashcroft tax status is not and has never been an issue with the law or the government.
Given the circumstances, there was absolutely no reason for Ashcroft to inform either Cameron or Hague of his tax status as a non-dom. His status was fully legal, accepted by the government in advance of his ennoblement and consistent with existing practice within the House of Lords.
The need for Cameron and Hague to know the full details only arose when Gordon Prentice obtained the correspondence file through an FOI request and threatened to release selected documents during the GE campaign with the intent to discredit the Conservative Party.
302 is in answer to 276 Professor Davey
288 - at a guess, around 3.30-4am. The sequence changes slightly from year to year, but whereas the supporting gongs tend to be given out early - sometimes supporting actress is the first award - the two big ones tend to stay until the final half a dozen or so.
latest poll tonight 39% tory, 31% labour, 19% libs.
Leading Tories view senior police as little more than new Labour stooges
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article7053384.ece
Nothing new, but still of interest.
Crawls off to bed chuckling at drollery of last few Tory comments and clutching brochure entitled ” Belize: Sights, Attractions and Opportunities for Tax Avoidance” to read before nodding off.
Surely,given the huge debt and annual deficits for as far as the eye can see,we need all the tax revenues we can get.Labour seems hell bent on creating an atmosphere which will chase bankers and non doms away from the country
I don’t know why you bother Seth. You are just encouraging them.
Ashcroft was asked to be a long term resident [nothing to do with domicile] to ensure Labour’s non-dom donors [a bigger group] weren’t exposed.
Either he doesn’t know that and therefore hasn’t bothered to do his research or he’s trolling.
Hmmm it seems that story is based on a briefing document which has been leaked from CCHQ
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article7053182.ece
305. Many of the rank and file would agree.
ACPO ranks are all ‘Met politicians’ now.
299 Constan Treader
Accuracy please!
“post-neoclassical endogenous growth theory”
308 My understanding was that he needed to be a resident in the UK so he could actually turn up regularly in the Lords - it had nothing to do with his tax status hence why he’s a non-dom.
Either way - no one with a life cares.
Here is some idea of what is going on in Afghanistan.
SAS in Afghanistan suffer worst losses for 60 years
BRITAIN’S special forces have suffered the worst blow to their fighting strength since the second world war, with 80 members killed or crippled in Afghanistan. Serious injuries have left more than 70 unable to fight, while 12 have been killed. It means the forces have lost about a sixth of their full combat capacity. The Sunday Times has established that the Special Air Service (SAS) and Special Boat Squadron (SBS) have mounted “several hundred” operations targeting Taliban leaders since 2007. British special forces operations in southern Afghanistan now centre on persuading mid-ranking Taliban leaders that they are better off working with the Afghan government.This involves a mixture of “hard arrests” — snatch operations to grab key Taliban leaders to gather intelligence — and “offensive action” in which Taliban leaders are killed.
A senior special forces source said: “There are ops happening every day and very big ops, hard arrests, offensive actions — it’s having a lot of effect on the Taliban leadership.” Sources say commanders are putting pressure on the SAS and SBS reservists to fill the gaps in manpower. The high casualty rate is a result of both the scale of special forces operations in the past three years and the Taliban’s increasing use of roadside bombs. “The operational pool has been severely depleted,” the source said. “It’s largely because of the numbers of injuries. There are lots of Hereford [SAS] and Poole [SBS] guys walking round with missing limbs.”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk
312. Really bad.
280 Goupillon
Not much more I can add except that Ashcroft certainly arranged his tax affairs in a manner that optimised his personal benefit whilst remaining acceptable to the government, within the law and consistent with his peers. You would expect the same of any competent businessman in hid position.
His charitable donations and his decision not to claim parliamentary expenses does not give the impression of a man solely motivated by personal gain. I would also consider that donating to a political party in a free democracy is an act of public good. The fact that he has donated 10 million rather than 10 pounds is a difference of scale not principle.
Of course members and supporters of rival parties are envious. Perhaps their should put their energies into raising similar funds from sources that support their cause.
313 - all the more reason why that story on the Telegraph is absolutely toxic if the press go with it. Which they probably won’t…
310 SallyC
Oh, completely. The only people who like ACPO are chief police officers and Labour.
I remember Sir Hugh Orde promising to make no complaints whatsoever about 20% budget reductions as long as elected police commissioners didn’t come in. Absolutely astonishing. Yellow Submarine made some very cogent posts about it.
The length ACPO will go to in order to avoid accountability is ridiculous.
Here is the full link to 313
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/afghanistan/article7052605.ece
305. If the Tories are serious about bringing down the ACPO mob, that is about the best reason I can think of for voting for them.
304. Thanks, The Raven.
That sends me off to bed.
Go Forth, Firth!
Go First, not Fourth!
309 ACPO needs nailing - it’s a gravy train for senior officers to lobby/set policy on behalf of 43 police services in E&W.
It makes a fortune from CRB checks and other stuff and is basically an old-boys club.
I’d be delighted if the Tories git rid of it - I hold Sir Hugh in very high regard, he did a great job in NI and wonder why he’s ended up at ACPO where he’s entirely wasted.
Is it theoretically or mathematically possible for Labour and the Tories to end up with the same number of seats in the House of Commons?
I’ve asked a few of my friends this, and no-one seems to know the answer.
Is it theoretically or mathematically possible for Labour and the Tories to end up with the same number of seats in the House of Commons?
I’ve asked a few of my friends this, and no-one seems to know the answer.
by jupiter1 March 7th, 2010 at 11:47 pm
Yes
305. It all comes down to ACPO. It is a corrupting organisation it combines the very worst qualities in a Quango, it is the trojan horse the Home Office have always wanted into local policing.
The wishes of ACPO are of far more importance then your local police committee.
ACPO = New Labour
I know someone who was an ACPO rank officer. Old school. Non-Met. There’s none of them left now.
IIRC senior officiers were put on fixed/limited term contracts a while back, rather than them being on the payroll until they retired or were booted off. Can’t help but think it removed some of their independence.
Though they all hate the idea elected commissioners.
323 John
Thanks for that answer. I’ve been trying to enter loads of different vote shares into electoral calculas to see how that could happen, and guess what:
Con 37
Lab 32
Lib 18
produces just such a result. Con 285 Lab 285 Lib 48
I pray to God, Jesus and every other deity i can think of that this doesn’t happen.
What a nightmare that would be. Not only a hung parliament, but a weak hung parliament to boot. Total mess. The markets would absolutely collapse.
313. What is going on in Afghanistan, 2nd instalment:
“Rifleman Jonathon Allott, 19, from 3 Rifles, died from his wounds following a roadside explosion on Friday. Rifleman Liam Maughan, 18, also from 3 Rifles, died from gunshot wounds on Saturday. Both men were killed near Sangin.”
It’s humbling to think that our country produces teenagers of such courage. Are we worthy of their sacrifice?
Good night, all.
313, 327 In the words of the Conservative Party slogan “We can’t go on like this”.
You can’t fight a war on a shoestring. Brown can always find money for his pet projects, but never find the necessary resources for the military. The capability of our Armed Forces in doing “more with less” is just something that he takes for granted, as did Blair before him when playing the role of Great World Statesman.
DON’T TAKE THE ARMY FOR GRANTED!
Found on another website - might seem a bit corny but I am unrepentant:
“If you are reading this post, thank a teacher.
If you are reading it in English, thank a soldier”
308 SallyC
Yes it is boring to repeat the same facts repeatedly, but if only one person’s view is changed by my posts, I am convinced I will go to Tory Heaven.
I just have to decide where Tory Heaven would be.
329 Seth O. Logue
“I just have to decide where Tory Heaven would be.”
I guess you might have to settle for Hell.
328 Disraeli
Spot on. Personally i think its disgraceful that we have millions of work shy or downright lazy people in this country who are on the dole and could work were it not for them pulling ’sickies’ relentlessly by feigning disability, then get their giros and spend it down the pub, yet we can’t find enough money to buy our soldiers decent armoured vehicles to prevent them getting blown to bits in Afghanistan.
This is one of the most disgraceful aspects of this government.
just think about the enormity of the evil of this concept. The generic ‘Frank’ from Shameless gets dole money which he p*sses up the wall on booze and fags, and yet our soldiers are being picked off because they haven’t got the right protection.
Disgusting, absolutely disgusting. And the bankers should be ashamed of themselves in this regard too.
329. Your a good bloke. Very patient.
But I don’t think most of them come on to be convinced. I think they come on to derail and repeat. But there might be an honest one in amongst the rest, I suppose.
This is sick
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1256109/The-social-worker-looked-Bulger-killer-release-gives-extraordinary-account-kid-gloves-treatment-inside-.html
Sounds like they’re counting the votes on the night of the election in Iraq.
If they can do it, I think maybe we should be able to as well!
Your = you’re. I
ts late.
Night all.
Tory heaven is where we are all ‘in union’.
So hell for you old nat!
oscars
im on Avatar for Best Pix; n have hedged on the Basterds
ive lost $500 already on Cameron for Best Dir; but have $10k on Bigelow at an average of 1.4 to win Best Dir.
I have $2k on Bollocks to win Best Actress at 1.69. (i might have misspelled by its 6 in the mornings here n im intoxicated by a perfume and two long long dancing legs)
299 There is already a vast amount of state ( taxpayers ) subsidising of the political parties which most people are unaware of . Apart from the MP’s communication’s allowance , there are the Short and Cranborne Moneys , Scottish Parliament money and Policy Grants from the Electoral Commission .
The biggest beneficiary is surprisingly the party which expresses the most hypocritical horror at state financing of political parties - the Conservative Party . In the last quarter of 2009 alone they received £ 1.3 million the LibDems £ 0.64 million and Labour just £ 0.35 million . In 2008 as a whole the Conservatives received some $ 4.5 million of taxpayers money which dwarfs by far the Ashcroft donations .
334 SallyC
Glad you are such a strong EU supporter.
If Colin does win the Oscar leading actor Oscar and Jeff is well beaten, I wonder if someone will commission an Oscar portrait of the occcasion?
It could be entitled:
Painting of Firth, of Fourth, Bridges.
335 I really hope Bullock gets it - she’s fab, I adored her in Miss Congeniality and Demolitian Man. She’s got superb comic timing.
please keep me posted on the results!
329 oldnat
I am on my way to Kings Cross to catch the 23:50 sleeper to Glsogow Central.
I shall order a 2 berth cabin and pray for an Hell’s Angel to alight at Carlisle.
Fast-tracking combined with PC hoop-jumping eventually leads to an ACPO full of people who’d sell out their own mother for a fancy hat.
ssi,
ur ‘oua oua’ comment was hilarious.
God bless u.
“Harriet Harman threatens official action to get more women into boardrooms”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/7378911/Harriet-Harman-threatens-official-action-to-get-more-women-into-boardrooms.html
WOW
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/afghanistan/7373768/RAF-helicoptor-pilot-shot-between-the-eyes-by-Taliban-flies-20-to-safety.html
re 341 Seth wouldn’t you be better off going to Euston? Isn’t that where it leaves from.
323. Of course it’s possible, bur rather unlikely. It in fact happened in December 1910 with Con/Lib both on 272 (although one of the Cons was officially an ind.Con).
Caught a little bit of my former tenant, Shirley Williams on R4 tonight…
It’s seats, not votes that matter, she said, when determining who has a mandate.
Amazing how many of my little ideas voiced here have been taken up by the parties…
1. AV would be good for Labour (and LibDem). tick.
2. Labour should encourage TV for the LibDems. tick.
3. It’s seats, not votes that count in a hung parliament. tick.
Harriet says she supports women as MP’s and then promotes her hubby based on his no doubt outstanding ability to play scrabble or whatever.
Threatening to do it in areas of free market is plainly even stupider.
She needs to get her own house in order first, quite literally.
The issue as I see it, and i have employed lots of women, is that women often stay for a few years and leave at often short notice to have kids. whereas men stay in the job. So after 4 or 5 years training who is more likely to be there in the long run?
That is a fact.
If a woman joins the company after she has had kids then that is different. She is on a level playing field then.
Some ehnic groups have higher birth rates as we know, so if you ask me would I hire a muslim lady newly married in a senior position if she was say 25 or 30 then I would say that would be highly unlikely all other aspects being equal with other candidates.
Not an issue of race, merely practicality.
I would want someone I hired to be there most of the next 6 years, instead of being at home on maternity leave for perhaps half of that time.
If she said she was gay I would of course again have no (or at least a lot less) issue hiring her!
346 Chris A
You are right. It is so long since I took a sleeper to Glasgow that I checked first, putting Kings Cross into the departure box. On rechecking it appears I must take the tube to Euston and leave 20 minutes later.
I think the last time I did the sleeper run was from Leeds to Glasgow.
Overnight rail travel always seems romantic in advance. It is not waking up in a hotel bedroom with bathroom and shower to hand that brings you back to reality.
348. “It’s seats, not votes that matter, she said, when determining who has a mandate.”
She’s right. If the Tories love FPTP so much, they have to live with the result it produces. It would be a bit jaw-dropping for them to run to the Lib Dems begging “please make the result more proportional for us, but just this once”…
336. The changes in Short Money came about after 1997, and the Conservatives had no say in it, and the reason Labour get so little of it, is because the Government, by being the Government has over a million civil servants at its disposal.
It isnt state funding of parties, but state funding an opposition.
Here is a quote from Margaret Beckett speaking as leader of the house:
“Recipients of Short money have to furnish the Accounting Officer of the House with the certificate of an independent professional auditor, in a form determined by the Accounting Officer, to the effect that all expenses in respect of which the party received financial assistance during the period ending with that day were incurred exclusively in relation to the party’s parliamentary business under the House’s resolution.7″
343 Seth O. Logue
Is that King’s Cross, Bohemia, or King’s Cross Moravia?
I was passing through Euston station last week and was surprised to see on the departures board a “Caledonia Sleeper” service at 11:50pm. I hadn’t realised it was still running. First stop was Carlisle.
Mori Satisfaction ratings:
Blair Mar 2005: -25%
Brown Feb 2010: -21%
by Gabble March 7th, 2010 at 8:12 pm
Are you showing us that we have had two crap Labour PMs not one?
Rod, with Lab and Lib adding up to almost 50% of the vote, the Tories need to work out how to get that figure down to 40 to 45% all up and themselves to get partity, at least in conjunction with others. The Greens who may grow ins trength in this system will also be part of that potential coalition.
That is why, like it or not, they will need BNP or UKIP 2nd votes to get near to getting over the line.
Without them, the permanent coalition which Brown wanted in Scotland will also eventuate.
It is only when the Libs support labour when they have less support than the Tories that their true position will be proven.
The old “a liberal vote is a wasted vote” does not seem to be part of labour’s campaign, as they need liberals to take votes from tories acoss many seats as labour’s vote declines.
If labour is slightly ahead in seats then one can see them saying they are doing the right thing for the country. All b.s. but that is politics for you.
In an AV battle I would expect the attacks on these potential voters and parties to be less rabid and patronising and more nuanced, with labour hoping to get a share of them despite their terible policies of the last 10 years.
352. Precisely.
As I mooted a couple of years back, I hope the Tories have their answer ready for the question: “So, for the benefit of your voters, Mr. Cameron, can you explain again exactly why you are so in favour of an electoral system which caused you to lose the election???”
Cash for content: is the Guardian as pure as it claims to be?
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/media/opinion/stephen-glover/stephen-glover-cash-for-content-is-the-guardian-as-pure-as-it-claims-to-be-1917716.html
Seth O you are a saint to still be calmly trying to explain simple facts to the monomaniacs like CarlottaVance.
You have to wonder if there is some disease about that has also affected the Guardian which is still banging on with a non-story got up by MandyPandy.
But then, they don’t have shareholders, do they. Although they have good accountants which enable them to avoid tax on 300k of booty.
Some hypocrisy with your champagne Mr Rusbridger? One lump or the whole bag, sir?
You know you deserve it. We call it the Guardian Bollinger Cocktail. The secret ingredient is the hypocrisy, Mr Rusbridger. Must be rank hypocrisy of course, none of the simple stuff.
Lib Dems accused of split as Clegg performs U-turn on plan to scrap child benefits
http://news.scotsman.com/uk/Lib-Dems-accused-of-split.6131004.jp
Quite. The idea of a “mandate” will change with AV, or even before.
You can imagine Clegg saying:
“Yes, the Tories emerged with most votes, but when you examine the preferences of the LibDems and other parties, Labour comes out in front. Therefore it is Labour who has the true mandate.”
And he would be correct…
358. It wont cause him to lose an election. The people of Witney will get a chance to vote for a range of candidates, of which he will be one. The candidate that receives the most votes will become the member of parliament, which he hopes will be him.
It sounds like a pretty darn fair way of doing things.
358. And we should ask Gordon Brown why he is in favour of AV - a system that is more unfair and is less representative than First Past the Post.
Absence of women from top boards is unacceptable, says Gordon Brown
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2010/mar/08/lack-women-top-boards-unacceptable-brown
363. Doh! I meant the general election, can’t you see?
Is it possible Lord Paul and the other Labour non dims will also be coming to Australia like Purcell to avoid media scrutiny?
Or does simply banning anyone saying anything (non factual of course)to the media as Brown is trying with the MOD the latest approach in a Brownian attempt at a Stalinist society?
North Korea says that anything said against the state is a crime. is ee little difference with this demand that nobody talks to either the Tories or the journalists for fear of information flowing.
364. Except it isn’t, necessarily. If you believe in majoritarianism in a multi-party system, it’s the only way to go…
362 - LOL. I’d love to see Clegg try to sell propping up a Labour government with a million or so fewer votes to the public with that logic.
Do you think the press will let him?
Actually, I almost want that to happen for the comedy value of Chris Huhne and Nick Clegg’s press conferences.
354 Oldnat
Prague wouldn’t be too far from Heaven but I doubt it would ever be Tory. I’ve never been to Brno so I’ll make that the destination.
Now if I were travelling East into the former USSR I would have to change trains because of the difference in track gauge. If the Slavs can devise such barriers to integration, what on earth will the Celts do with independence?
Still waiting for the Times to print the story exposing the links between business and politics in Glasgow.
The mistake of the journalist was telling us it was going in, in the next few hours, thereby we all know the story is written. Or shredded, as the case may be.
Who pulled it and why?
What we do know is a labour leaning paper pulls a story that is anti sleaze and corruption in labour heartlands, now there is a surprise.
If you thought the Guardian front page with that Mandelson headline was a joke, check out the editorial..
Gordon Brown and David Cameron: Questions of leadership
rod =
369. It’s the logic of preferential systems. The Press would be all over him if he did anything different. See the Irish Labour party in 1992…
365. The problem is when you use positive discrimination to put women in those positions you end up with substandard people.
A case in point is Harriet Harmen, her gender, far from holding her back has allowed, someone who would be barely considered a mediocre back bench mp, if she was a man, to reach such high office.
If you compare her to say, anyone else in number 10 who is at the top table, and we werent to be chivalrous, she would not be there on merit.
We expect less of women as a society, so are willing to give them more room, to compensate. So in her case we dont think, oh well, she has done so humiliatingly badly at PMQs she really should be out on her ear, we think, oh well, its a bit of an old boys club in there, she held her own, in a mans world.
We excuse substandard behaviour and practice, because underneath it all, we really dont want to make a point of her being so crap, because, despite her being, well awful, she is one of the better performers the labour party have. Now that is frightening.
370 Seth O. Logue
Oddly, it’s quite easy to travel by rail or road between Eire and NI.
You were saying?
374 - Except the majority of the press isn’t generally on the side of the Lib Dems anyway.
rod =
376 - The rail provision in Ireland (both sides of the border) is a bloody joke.
David, comedy value or not we know from Oborne that if it is possible to support Labour, without Brown, they will do so.
And as part of that deal labour will go in softer against the Libs in the build up to the election, as long as the libs primarily target the Tories. Not hard to see and understand, particularly with a complicit media.
If the libs really are at 17% in england then labour should really be trying to win some of their seats, but that does not seem to be a priority.
375 edit: “better performers the labour party have” to
“better female performers the labour party have”
rod =
380 - The Lib Dems might be at 17 but won’t be after an election campaign.
mike smithson =
Agreed David Roe, they will go up, but it would be the basis for an attempt to win some of their seats IF labour was serious about winning liberal seats.
I have often had an unofficial hands off policy in business. It might cost a few quid (or seats!) but it does mean that there are sometimes no major nasty surprises with other key players.
This is the full picture :
Mori Satisfaction ratings:
Feb 2005
Blair : -22%
Howard : -20%
Jan 2010
Brown : -26%
Cameron : +3%
The Government dissatisfaction rating is -42%. A net of -42% disapprove of the Labour government.
There is a strong correlation between the ratio of absolute approval figures for party leaders and the outcome of the election. If we measure this the outcomes become clear.
Feb 2005
Blair vs Howard : +10% Blair
Blair Won
Jan 2010
Brown vs Cameron : -10% Brown
Cameron Win
A small Conservative majority is the most likely outcome.
376 oldnat
You’re going to tell me the ‘Celtic Fringe’ is a haircut nrxt.
387 Seth O. Logue
I’ve had a Road to Damascus moment! The Tories are going to protect the very core of Scottishness.
http://politics.caledonianmercury.com/2010/03/08/diary-tories-claim-eu-a-threat-to-sporrans/00488/comment-page-1#comment-3654
They want to give me the right to go out and bludgeon a seal to death to make a new sporran!
Why did I ever doubt their balls (or the mechanism for protecting them)?
345, Philippe Magnan - glad you liked it, bro.
Am certain your new pride & joy (God bless the tike, ditto mom & dad) will make La Belle Province plus trés belle!
Re: Quebec pronounciation, first heard about it years ago from my old professor of French history at LSU. Have been waiting ever since to hear it for myself on your home ground. Haven’t made it yet, but someday . . .
388 oldnat
I always knew that Dave and Annabel would deal the seal.
390 Seth O. Logue
Excellent!
I would like to have trust in the Strathclyde police to inevstigate crime and politics, but when the Chief Constable efectively pays himself a 65k bonus on top of his 170k, for achieving targets that he himself set, then I think the chance of the system regulating itself is further way than ever.
Could he have missed the targets? What would it have taken to not give himself a 65k performance bonus?
Clearly the bonus was not related to crime at the top end of town or purcell would have been out of a job 12 months ago.
Purcell was too much of a risk to stand as an MP, but being compromised in Glasgow would appear to be par for the course so no problem being the boss,and avoiding discussions on organised crime that the opposition parties wished to discuss with Purcell in 2009.
Those bonuses from the nightclub/sauna/whorehouse owners tend to be paid in brown paper bags and are not shown in the earnings!
I used to know by marriage another Chief Constable in Scotland; when I got pulled over in his area and just mentioned his name my admittedly very minor driving offence disappeared on the spot.
No checking, the lad took it at face value. Simple as that.
So move along, nothing new to see indeed in policing in Scotland!
oldnat
Its when the EU insist on polyester kilts that the SNP will start pining for the UK.
Why do you guys not get it?
Tories have sleazy Ashcroft; NuLabour has sleazy Mandelson.
The debate is crazy; its not about left and right anymore, its about them and us - the rulers and the ruled.
They ARE ALL THE BL00DY SAME. MPs from all parties were proved to be self-serving, and that is not going to change. And as for MEPs - even worse. The system is broken.
Carry on slagging each other off if you like, but its meaningless. The public will get fed up with Cameron’s Tories just as they are rightly fed up with the bunch of hooligans currently in Government.
There needs to be some kind of peasants’ revolt before we see real change; please read some history books, please analyse the present with reference to the past.
393 Seth O. Logue
I would respond - but I’m still in awe of your #390!
Do not knock kilts Seth.
Unless you are extremely unattractive I would suggest wearing a kilt with the full works to be the height of chick magnetism.
Despite being over the hill I was astonishingly attacked by young hopefuls at a recent social event, some very intent to see what the lad was wearing underneath in private.
I had a six inch surprise nestled against my leg; called a dirk. Legally as in full regalia it is not and was not considered an offensive weapon. It did attact some fascinating comments though.
I actually wondered if gang members may suddenly dress in kilts carrying knives in an attempt to get round the laws of the land…
Of course, had I worn a dinner suit I can assure you the interest in myself would have been negligible!
396 redcliffe62
While on his exchange year in the USA, my son was invited to a “Dress to get laid” party. When asked what he was going to wear, he was impressed by the jealousy of his male friends when he said “my kilt”.
392, redcliffe62 - re: your last paragraph, years ago knew an old reprobate down in Louisiana who told this story, which dated back to the late 1940s or early ’50s:
He’d just gotten out of jail, and to support himself got an old pickup and started a very picayune trucking business, servicing oil rigs and whatnot in Placquemines Parish. Which is at the mouth of the mightly Mississippi River south of New Orleans, and was at that time the absolute fiefdom of the (in)famous Judge Leader Perez.
BUT my buddy had a problem; for some reason he couldn’t get a drivers license. So someone told him to see the Judge about it, which he did. Ole Leander listened to his tale of woe, thought a minute, pulled out a piece of paper, and wrote a brief “To whom it may concern” note.
A few weeks later my friend was speeding down the highway - BTW not in Placquemines Parish - when he was pulled over by a Louisiana state trooper. When asked to produced his license, he handed the cop the paper he’d gotten from The Judge.
Upon which the trooper not only tore up the ticket he’d started writing. He escorted my buddy to the nearest roadside tavern, which is NEVER a far distance away in south Louisian . . . and bought him a beer!
Roger’s Oscar tips are 4 out of 4 so far.
I am on my knees repenting all my mockery.
Nytol
399. when it comes to the Oscars, Roger transforms into Rogerdamus, the rest of the time he is clueless, however, and his pearls of wisdom are usually drawn from a conversation with the lower orders, such as his butler/driver/cleaner/nanny.
Sea Shanty. Lovely anecdote.
I did not get a beer, but it shows who you know matters!
If Colin Firth comes in I’ll be opening a nice bottle.
404 - anyone showing Oscars live ?
405 Oscars.
One of the Sky movies channels iirc. 151 according to Betfair.
@406 thanks John, don’t have Sky. Got a live txt feed on BBC . It’ll have to do. Finger crossed for Colin Firth.
Sky News are announcing the results too so you don’t have to sit through the sh1t speeches.
408,
But I like to look at Colin Firth. Sad old bird that I am.
Wasn’t there supposed to be a poll tonight, populus ?
http://www.justin.tv/motownmike#r=10CeuxA~
kristin
just for you…
the Oscar thread in the betfair forum is absolutely hilarious.
those gamblers are funny as hell — all on the edge as well!
under the section “specials”
@ chris_g00 March 8th, 2010 at 3:57 am
Thanks!
intrade now gives 65% chance for Hurt Locker to win best pix.
Best director not yet announced.
Gah. Bridges won as expected.
Would be the most navel-gazing decision to give it to Hurt Locker. Avatar has changed the industry.
**admits he works for News Corp**
Oscars show not as good as last year. At least by not winning we avoided a James Cameron speech. When he won for Titanic he gave the second most toe-curling remarks in academy history.
his old missus’ speech was not crash hot either.
Credit where credit’s due, Roger is on the money again. The perenniel question of why he is so good at this but so awful at political predictions remains to be answered - an enigma of our time!
Congratulations Roger, hope you put some money on.
418.I agree, the Oscars this year lacked a certain class, that they generally import by handing out Oscars to British actors.
419 - I’m pretty sure he said Avatar would win best picture. That’s what I had my money on anyway and I went for Roger’s picks!
421. I don’t think anyone, least of all him, claims to get literally every award right. However in this case for instance I believe he got only 2 wrong of the main ten or so awards - if you didn’t spread your betting, caveat emptor!
By my reckoning, from a betting perspective, Roger scored 3 out of 7 (ie those categories where his picks were backable offering odds of 0.67/1 or better). This result left me just short of break even, but not a bad outcome:
Best Film……………Avatar………..1.65/1 Betfair LOST
Best Actress…………Sandra Bullock…0.67/1 Boylesport, Betfred WON
Best Foreign Lang Film..Dass Weiss Band..EVENS..Betfair LOST
Best Cinematography…..Hurt Locker……0.83/1..Betfair LOST
Best Original Screenplay Hurt Locker…..1.5/1…Bet365 WON
Best Costume Design….Coco avant Chanel..0.95/1..Betfair LOST
Best Sound Editing…..Hurt Locker……..1.26/1..Betfair WON
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/mandrake/7392469/Gordon-Brown-and-the-mystery-of-the-hundred-broken-computer-keyboards.html
423. Agree some of the lesser ones were off, but I was really looking at the headlines, and the ones he was correct on included Best Director, Best Actor, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actor and Best Supporting Actress. In total therefore he a good majority right - realise we are talking about your book here though so commiserations on any losses.
425. Sorry should have added Best Animation to the ones he got right.
So despite a hugely leading question only 55% of public are worried about a hung parliament? Hardly a resounding stance of public being against that situation.
testing