New pollster has 37/30/16
March 8th, 2010| “Opinium” for the Express | 08/03/10 | 2005 |
|---|---|---|
| CONSERVATIVES | 37% | 33.2 |
| LABOUR | 30% | 36.2 |
| LIB DEMS | 16% | 22.7 |
| LAB to CON swing | 5% | ?? |
This is a new one on me and needs further investigating. According to reports “The poll was taken by Opinium from 5th to 8th March using what is described as “their research panel” of 1960 individuals.”
I wonder whether they poll the same 1960 individuals again and again? We don’t know - but I’m sure all will become clear.
All a bit confusing but the numbers are in broad line with what we have seen elsewhere.
Still to come tonight - the YouGov daily poll and a marginals survey from Populus.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
First!
Good to have a new pollster on the scene.
The first thing I noticed is the three-party share implying others are at around 17% - ARPOian.
With an opinium (sorry)!
2, depends on if the methodology is sound.
FPT
314- S and S
I largely agree. However, “unity candidacy of the left” is an oxymoron.
At the next election there will at least be 6 candidates from the left:
- a socialist
- a green
- a communist
- 3 trotskysts (1 of each chapel: NPA, LO and PT)
by Chris(from Bethesda) March 8th, 2010 at 8:50 pm
The populus is a marginals. from ukpollingreport.
Two new national polls tonight: YouGov’s daily poll in the Sun and a new entrant in the Express – Opinium Research. They have topline figures of CON 37%, LAB 30%, LDEM 16% – but more on that later. We will also have a new poll from Populus in the Times, but it is apparently going to be a marginals poll rather than their normal GB voting intention.
@7 oops - you said that already Mike.
No detail of their methodology on their site and no detailed data published. The latest ‘news’ listed on their site is from 2008. I hope this is not another BPIX………
5 - Indeed, judging from some of the posts on the earlier thread, it seems that they will using the say people in the polls.
That seems to be an interesting methodology.
Only time will tell.
Mike, instead of “??” for previous results, shouldn’t you show 2005 GE, as (I thought) was standard PB practice?
What was the last marginals poll? (Other than the confusion that reigned with BPIX that is…)
I note that “marginals poll” isn’t a Category…
I think they have done a previous poll. Not sure that they were on the money?
Here we go: the ‘Tories are in bed with nazis’ smear.
FPT
Glorious Leader and Ed Balls are going to be doing webchats on “Netmums” (which is apparently an alternative to “Mumsnet”) soon
http://www.netmums.com/
fpt (since when my opinium is unchanged)
I hope they didn’t pay big money to whoever recommended Opinium as a trading name - one which should surely be consigniaed (see what I did there?)to the dustbin of history.
13 is that all they have??? Did tim provide the detail?
17 related to 14
I’m beginning to think that there’s a case for banning polls during election campaigns. People should be able to make up their minds on the issues.
15, the wives of the People’s Front of Judea?
Monday 10th May 2010
10-5-10
Britain’s date with destiny.
Make a note of it in your diary.
6- But it isn’t etched in stone that the French left must always be hopelessly divided (although it has seemed so for many years). The left in France has splintered more and more over the years as there has been a dearth of leadership on the left, but if a popular leftist leader were to emerge (probably but not necessarily from the PS), I would imagine that he/she could throw cold water on the enthusiasm within the electorate to support various left-wing splinter factions. I don’t know who that modern-day incarnation of Mitterrand would be, though.
FPT
292. Far too few, I’m afraid. Depends on how confident you want to be.
95% confidence would imply about 30 declarations. 99.5% (what the BBC use) would imply about 50.
But again the factors I mentioned above will confound those numbers upwards…
4 or 5 results could only reliably detect a landslide, as in 1997 or 1983…
15/19 - Splitters.
I just semi-watched Cameron/Dispathces. It really wasn’t that negative, and if anything showed more positives than negatives… A bit like that Boris & Dave thing last year.
Whats the swing from the last election 11% ?
re 11. Spot SSI. I have done just that - the 2005 election shares are in the RH column.
Well compared to TFP it was streets ahead, Mandy looking like the snake that he is, I expected a hiss and a tongue to dart out at any minute.
Only detractors interviewed in the main. I can’t see it doing any great harm.
“Make a note of it in your diary.”
I already have. It’s my dad’s birthday…
24 - Always said Rawnsley is a top journalist of the highest repute.
Rawnsley - hatchet job? tickled with a feather job. That was a good piece for Cameron, he’s on telly, airtime for his shadow ministers (the good ones) and policies… and Mandleson came across as a slimeball by comparison.
Is this another poll that fits the narrative of
“What in the name of everything holy is happening to the Lib Dem Share?”
19. Wasn’t that the Popular Front???!!!
30
I am always amazed at the credence the media give to Mandleson, given his past history….
Lefties will be disappointed at the Rawnsley piece.
Cameron uncovered, and the tomb was empty.
21- S and S
“I don’t know who that modern-day incarnation of Mitterrand would be, though.”
And that’s the problem…
Anyway they can afford to have a lot of candidates in the first round if the supposed “big” candidate still gets a respectable score in the first round (Royal crushed the 6 other leftist candidates in 2007, they got a combined 10.5% of the vote).
Even Mitterrand (in 1974 81 and 88) had quite a lot of competition with other left-wing candidates but he was:
1- the clear leader
2- supported (even if grudgingly) by the others
Two observations about Cameron on ‘Dispatches’. The first is that the many appearances of Osborne made Cameron look better and the second is that he is completely without policy or ideology. How did Richard Nabavi get confused into thinking him the most radical party leader since Thatcher?
36
Is he Jesus tim?
30. “Mandleson came across as a slimeball by comparison.”
He always does, God alone knows why Labour thought Mandelson should lead the attack on Ashcroft.
36 - Ah you mean like the tomb of Jesus a few days after he was cruficied?
In your own words, Cameron = Jesus.
@31 - gone home to nurse.
27: ‘Mandy looking like the snake that he is’
Mandy came out of it looking worse than Cameron: exposed by Gove as a commie Castro worshipper when a student.
The emphasis they placed on Euroscepticism will play well for Cameron.
Speaking as a Cameron fan I thought Rawnsley was OK. You really can’t expect an hour of adulation - indeed it wouldn’t be right and Rawnsley was perceptive in his insights into the problems a Conservative Govt will face and the fact that any policy has a downside as well as a plus.
Speaking as a Pro EU Tory, I felt that section was Rawnsleys weakest.From the programme one would never have guessed that we are a deeply eurosceptic nation and in that sense Cameron chimes far more with the mood of the Country. To wheel out a foreign office mandarin and the french guy with their all too predictable comments was in my view cheap journalism. I am also very very doubtful that Cameon is more eurosceptic than Maggie.
Still on the whole a good programme and pretty fairly balanced.
21. Curses!! That’s the day when I was planning to seize power!! Now I have to start again!!!!
43, Gove’s a clever fellow. I doubt he’ll ever be leader, but he’s got a good head on his shoulders.
Any sign of this ‘8pm’ poll?
It’s like a woman saying she’ll be 5 minutes. By the time she’s ready you’ve got a new beard.
38 - “he is completely without policy or ideology”
Since 1997, that hasn’t mattered at all
Been watching Wigan v Liverpool instead (1-0 to the pie eaters) but Cameron’s big problem will be over-exposure. He will need a Ken Clarke or a Boris to take over the PR load sometimes
48-Boris didnt
38 How did Richard Nabavi get confused into thinking him the most radical party leader since Thatcher?
It’s not hard. Major, Hague, IDS, Howard.
Enough Said.
41 snap
28 Rod crosby
Hello there, well give your Dad my best regards.
Although i was actually referring to that date as the last possible date that Gordon brown can call for a June 3rd election.
I for one will be waiting with baited breath for his announcement.
There are 2 possibilities;
1) GB walk to the waiting press outside No10 and says i have been to see the Queen and asked for a dissolution etc etc
2) The other possibility is that GB walks towards the press and says, i have consulted with the Constituional Lawyers, and we have agreed that given the gravity of the economic task before us, we have agreed to postpone the general election until………..
Then cue mass hysteria.
I really ought to have my plane tickets already booked. Yes i think i might do that now.
Yes, i think Dublin from about May 9th to whenever, depending on what i hear on RTE news from my Dublin hotel bedroom.
Yup, sounds great.
50, keep up, Jonathan. Cameron is now Jesus. The scales have fallen from tim’s eyes. I think he’s going to rename himself Jim, and tour the country preaching Conservatism.
50 thats a keeper…
47 - When you say new beard? Do you mean a beard as defined here?
http://tinyurl.com/ThisKindOfBeard
@21 - i take it is just guess. Whats’s your thinking behind it ? A Monday might not be the best day for an election.
Where is this poll, I have grown a fricking father Christmas beard ?
55, I’d never heard of that term before.
LGBT… I dislike pigeon-holing people
How many new or returning pollsters is it now then?
Harris - 9%
TNS-BMRB - 8%
Opinium - 7%
Anyway, I’m off for food. I shall return and vreak rewenge.
The Jonah effect has struck again: death follows Our Great Leader like a miasma and stink from the middle ages.
This week in Afghanistan 6 soldiers of one regiment, “The Rifles”, have been killed; 4 of them since Gordo landed in the country on Saturday.
And yet, and yet, people still want to vote for this walking disaster. Will Britain never learn!
A fairly ho-hum Despatches from Rawnsley.
I thought Cameron came out of it fairly well, and apart from Vaizey’s much publicised gaff, there was nothing there to write home about.
ConHome seem to have had wind of a previous unpublished Opinium poll conducted a week prior, which showed Con 39/Lab 29/LD 15/Others 17, giving changes of Con -2/Lab +1/LD +1/Others 0.
55. Let’s keep Sarah Brown out of it.
58 - I loved it, when it was mentioned in Children in Need Dr Who special of 2007.
When David Tennant’s Doctor meets Peter Davison’s Doctor
DT: I met the Master recently
PD: Does he still have that ridiculous beard?
DT: Well a wife now.
53 MD tim’s just upset it wasn’t a complete hatchet job. None of us are jumping up and down and screaming foul so that must be disappointing.
“In the red corner: Labour’s answer to Ashcroft
As our poll shows today, the fight there is intensifying, with Labour and the Conservatives neck and neck on 38 per cent. ”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/rachel_sylvester/article7054580.ece
40. “God alone knows why Labour thought Mandelson should lead the attack on Ashcroft.”
Because, to all intents and purposes, Mandelson IS Labour?
The YouGov daily poll will be published here at precisely 10pm. I’ve just got the embargoed figures.
53 Some Tories have believed in Dave’s messianic qualities for some time.
Will be interesting to see his policy on rich men. Belize-nano-camel-corp shares could be a good investment.
At least his policy on money lenders may be good for the deficit.
The tomb was empty = Grave dug now kill off Labour
re 66. But it’s a marginals poll and we need to see the swing on 2005.
Excellent bit of PR for Cameron from Channel Four F*ck’s Sake Please Don’t Sell Us Off Mister Osborne.
They may as well have filmed Mandelson in a black cape, in flickering and eerie candlelight, with a thin line of blood dripping from his overlong left upper incisor.
And good for Gove, pointing out Mandy’s Commie past. Every single Tory should learn to do the same.
Repeat After Me. When George and Boris and Dave were being silly toffeenosed chumps breaking crockery in Oxbridge pizzerias, Mandelson and Darling and Milburn and Clarke and Byers and Ainsworth and the rest of these communist Labour c*nts were supporting the baby-smashers of the Khmer Rouge.
59. There always seems to a bunch of new pollsters who emerge just before a GE and then fade away after polling day, I can remember a firm called Audience Selection who did polls for the Express in 1992. They seemed to give the Tories their highest poll ratings of the campaign IIRC.
66. Holy f***
61 Weathercock, the deaths have been commented upon by the MOD: as follows
Insurgent activity in Sangin
The loss of any British or Afghan service person is very sad and our thoughts remain with the families of those who have died in Sangin and elsewhere in Afghanistan. Sangin is the most challenging area in which British troops operate and is where we have taken many of our casualties. Significant progress has been made in Sangin over the last three years.
The District Centre and bazaar area remain largely secure and this has given the vast majority of law-abiding Afghan citizens a haven and a focus for their legitimate activity. Such advances would not be possible were it not for the sacrifices and continued endeavours of the coalition and Afghan forces on the ground and, despite the challenges, the Combined Force remains ever more determined to succeed.
Sangin is an area that matters deeply both to the Taliban and the Afghan government, which is why it is so keenly contested. The area is currently experiencing a relatively high level of activity. Spikes in incidents have been experienced previously and there is no evidence that this is due fighters moving from the area of Op MOSHTARAK. We cannot discount, however, that the upsurge in activity is a deliberate ploy by the Taliban leadership to deflect attention from the successes in Central Helmand.
The situation is being closely monitored by ISAF, and a number of security and political measures have been taken to counter the increased level of insurgent activity.
Maj Gen Gordon Messenger, UK Military Spokesman
66. But it really depend how marginal these particular marginals are, doesn’t it?
74 that’s the marginals figure, not the national figure
74. Rod, I didn’t think you rated marginals polls?
75: Maj Gen GORDON Messenger? You couldn’t make it up.
56 Kristin
May i refer you to my post @ 52.
I don’t know if you agree with me, but the longer this drags on, especially given what has happened before, and GB’s indifference to contrary opinions, i wouldn’t be in the least bit surorised.
May 10th is when everyone can either breath a sigh of relief, in that either
a) They realise that GB is a democrat after all and willing to be subject to the will of the people come what may, and he will benefit hugely by that sentiment
or
b) The Tories will romp home and democracy is restored
OR GB comes out and says the terrifying P word (Postponed), in which case all hell will break lose.
Ooohhhh dear, why do i have such an overactive imagination. I’m getting genuinely nervous now at that prospect.
74.
Did Rod just fall for Gabble’s spin thinking that was a national figure?
77/78. OK, my mistake.
79 - I do wonder about the names of some of armed forces.
I give you Major Dickie Head
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/8014318.stm
80
is it possible to bet on Brown postponing the election?
69 What the f*** is a nano-camel? Is that how Ashcroft made his millions, breeding Belizian nano-camels?
There’s also a third poll tonight, a survey of marginals from Populus. There are reports that the vote split is 38:38 - a figure that is meaningless without us knowing what happened in the same seats in 2005.
Also in the Times article about Whelan..
a ‘ former communist, beer-loving football fan whose political hero is Che Guevara;’
Che? Really? Does he have a mental age of 17?.
For anyone who missed Panorama due to rawnsley, it’s already up on iplayer
http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/console/b00rfqfm/b00rfqdx
This is the partner piece for the Rachel Sylvester article
Safe seats for union backers prompt fears that Labour will turn Left after election
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article7054578.ece
Perhaps Labour will change their name to the Unite Party after the election?
84. He may not postpone the election, but he can postpone the meeting of parliament and the Queen’s Speech, thus preventing himself from being voted down after the election…
Errr if a marginal poll shows them as neck-n-neck, where the Tories are supposed to be well ahead, what does that say for a national poll.
72
Sush Seant you are getting your self exited, the ol’ thyroid will start a throbbing. Now lay down and take your very expensive drugs supplied to you free under the NHS. Don’t forget, as you now have repeat prescription for a drug which preserves your life, you now get every other prescription for free. What with that and the tax payer providing benefits to keep your sprog out of poverty, you of all people should be grateful to socialism.
84 Stan
Excellent point. Someone ought to email Paddy Power with this request. They normally do such eccentric bets.
Imagine that. 200/1 for a fiver.
£1000 profit, and all it would take would be the extinction of britain as a democratic country.
It would ease the pain though wouldn’t it?
O/T. Poor old Stirling
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/article7053880.ece
someone should warn him that a similar accident supposedly turned the Duchess of Argyle into a raving nympho… at his age, he should be so lucky.
85 What the f*** is a nano-camel?
Not that old clichéd question.
87 Have you ever read any of his tweets…
86 - if that report is true it just goes to show yet again the unreliability of twitter as earlier in the evening it was being posted as a 3 pt lead fo the Tories! You have warned us all though Mike !
lol a 38/38 would be funny in a national poll. Lib Dems=12% or so in that.
86. Mike
it was briefly linked on the Times politics page. Something about 100 marginals and the Conservatives still have work to do. For some reason the actual page wasn’t linked and the link has now been pulled….
86. Can’t you get the details from Riddell Mike?
Oh, incidentally, whens the next AR poll going to be?
88. I’ve made a point of missing Panorama for the last 20 years, moreso since it became Tonight-Lite. World in Action was always sooooo much better. And ‘This Week’ with that Sibelius piece.
71: fitaloon
“Maj Gen Gordon Messenger, UK Military Spokesman”
You cannot be serious???
91 If it polled 50-150 in the Tory target list then neck and neck would be an absolutely massive swing…
Basically we don’t know until Populus release the data on which constituencies they polled and what the 2005 GE result was. You should try reading what Mike says sometimes.
91 It depends how many marignals were polled
If this is on the top 150 targets for the Tories then it implies close to majority
If it is on the 50 closest either side then it implies a Labour win/majority
If it is on the top 75 or so like BPIX (Lab targets for Con) it implies 40 or so gains and Lab largest party
Very unlikely marginals poll is good for Con.
At the very most I’d expect these are seats with average Lab lead of 10% which implies 5% swing at best - ie worse than previous marginals polls.
For those us betting on Luton South and the number of Independents being elected at the GE
Esther Rantzen’s hard life on the hustings
The former television celebrity has set aside £10,000 of her own money to try to secure the backing of the voting public
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article7054598.ece
91 ‘grateful to socialism’.
..and socialism should be very grateful to capitalism, and the taxpayers, who pay its bills.
84. He doesn’t need to postpone the election. All he’d need to do is to request that writs not be moved when parliament expires.
The timetable for an election is normally set in motion by a dissolution and is scheduled automatically from that event. If there’s no dissolution and parliament expires, different rules apply and the writs would have to be actively moved.
Populus did a national and a marginals internal for the Tories last week.
There should be an AR poll this week.
101 Yup, the British Army is so over-officered we can afford to use a Major General as a press officer, he ought to be out there commanding a division.
Wow - Just wow
George Bush to David Cameron: don’t derail Northern Ireland peace process
Exclusive: Former president urges Cameron to rein in Unionist partners
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2010/mar/08/george-bush-david-cameron-ireland
109 - I was sent a VI today.
109. Looking forward to it.
111, I read something similar in the TImes when I was checking for the poll.
The US can fck off.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/ireland/article7053963.ece
84. Stan.
Betfair have a 6th May Election market up. If you bet on “after May 6th” that will cover you for a postpomement and you will also have the bonus of June 3rd on your side.
Current odds available are 15/1
91. Indeed so Coldstone. It has not escaped my attention that I do very well out of New Labour. My babymother gets full tax credits - five figures. I support her as well, and generously, but she gets the full whack.
We would be much poorer if we were still together, thanks to Labour’s tax credit system.
I also get free this ‘n’ that thanks to my thyroid, I even get free v1agra. Thankyou, taxpayers. All you lot are paying for my bunk-ups in Bangkok.
On top of that I have a ruthlessly effficient lawyer who brilliantly minimises my tax payments, as is my right as a self employed person (i.e. like an MP, without all the perks).
So, as I say, the peculiar mix of largesse, laxity and politically correct lunacy that is New Labour’s tax and benefits system benefits me personally quite a lot - so by rights I should be voting Brown.
As I am an unselfish person, a man who puts country before self, I shall not do so.
I hope you are impressed.
111. The irony of lefties now hailing Dubya!
Very peaceful on here without “Tim” this evening. Has Mike switched him off ala C3PO in The Empire Strikes Back?
117 But then Nu Lab have talked about making it illegal to pay for sex… and I wouldn’t put it past Hattie to make it an extraterritorial offence.
112 - just as well Cameron re-established the Tory link with the UUP and is therefore in a position to influence them in a positive direction.
Blessed are the peacemakers.
111 - talk about a dirty tricks operation ! Cameron and the Conservatives are 100% behind the peace process. The UUP are an independent political party. Cameron cannot force them to vote for the devolution proposals if they don’t want to. If anybody really thinks that Cameron wants a massive NI problem alongside all the major issues he will have to deal with if he becomnes PM then they want their heads examined.
92- Everybody would love socialism if it really gave you things for free. After all, who doesn’t want something for nothing?
118. The irony of Bush as a man of peace!
I just wonder whether the Times is postponing this for the night. Providing accurate reporting of a marginals poll is very tricky because of the need to calculate the swing. Peter Riddell email me earlier to say it would be up by 8pm.
My guess is that they need further clarification and Riddell, who is very careful, will not publish unless he is absolutely confident that the story is right.
Guardian have lost it. No wonder when you think about how f’ed they’ll be when the boy George takes away the public sector jobs advertising from them and puts it on the net.
122 Private sector workers who pay for it all or well, me.
“Safe seats for union backers prompt fears that Labour will turn Left after election
(…)His presence is one reason why Alastair Campbell, the former Downing Street communications chief with whom Mr Whelan has had a sulphurous relationship in the past, has turned down a formal role in the campaign. Although Mr Campbell is offering regular advice to both Mr Brown and Lord Mandelson, the Business Secretary, he is understood to be doing so on “more of a bilateral than multilateral basis”. ”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article7054578.ece
Front Pages:
http://www.politicshome.com/uk/article/6362/front_pages_tuesday_9_march.html
I have been surprised that Clegg has not been the subject of discontent within his party at the very poor poll ratings the lib dems have been achieving lately. He should be be taking at least another 3 points off the labour vote at the moment.
re 90 Rod yes Brown via HM can postpone the election. I refer you to the Meeting of Parliament Act 1694
124. Either that or its dinamite stuff and they are keeping it back to stop their rivals getting wind - Remember what the Sunday Times did with that 2% YouGov the other Saturday night.
I can think of an Emergency legislation which would require the cancellation of the election indefinitely.
And its this.
We have so many Chavs and Dole scroungers in this country, that if they don’t get their giros on time (if at all), which could happen under the Tories, then all the country’s kebab houses would go out of business.
The unease among the US Congress members is shared by Hillary Clinton. She is said to believe that Cameron would be well advised to follow the example of John Major, who was respected as an impartial referee.
The concerns in the US will raise questions about claims made in private recently by William Hague. The shadow foreign secretary is saying that, despite their political differences, he is forging a strong bond with Clinton.
The Hague genius strikes again?
134. Oh, speak of the devil.
129. Indeed the latest ICM poll suggests that Clegg is only retaining 58% of the 2005 vote with the net deficit of 2005 voters being lost to Con/Lab being 24% (13%/11%). Its hardly a stunning success…
http://www.icmresearch.co.uk/pdfs/2010_march_notw_poll.pdf
112 - The real reason for the article
Cameron has faced intense pressure in recent months over his decision to form an electoral pact with the UUP, which could provide him with crucial support if the general election leads to a hung parliament
Politics, for many people in this day and age, is a minefield which they prefer not to navigate. Even a question from an anonymous pollster is increasingly likely to be replied to with the answer that the responder supects (unconsciously) that the pollster wants to hear. When Tories lead in the polls, they will say Tory. When the tide is turning, and doing so noisily, they will be more likely than ever to say “don’t know”.
I suspect the gap between opinion polls and actual votes, where turnout is fast heading south of 50%, will continue to suprise the pollsters: even those who have factored in the apathy of the previous election
This tells us two things about opinion polls: 1) they are likely to be more wrong the lower the turnout 2) they are handy tools for PR-savvy peddlers of hot-air.
Where that leaves the young masters at Opinium, let the reader decide.
The only problem with the C4 programme, as far as Tories are concerned, is that it showed Cammo as a virtual shoo-in for Number 10.
This looks somewhat hallucinogenic, in the light of recent polls.
134
tim, thanks for that its just the sort of post to get me off to sleep. you are an absolute asset late at nig……… zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
122. “If anybody really thinks that Cameron wants a massive NI problem alongside all the major issues he will have to deal with if he becomnes PM then they want their heads examined.”
Bush and the Guardian? I think we may as well skip the examination.
134 - Tim, I think your wife will be concerned with your obsession with all things William Hague.
Do you have a thing for baldies? I mean first there was Chris Grayling, now William Hague
Should OGH start to get worried?
Bookies’ best prices (BlueSquare; 888Sport)
CON MAJ 4/7
NOM 13/8
LAB MAJ 10/1
134 - Tim - the Clintons and Brown are joined at the hip. I have said time and again that there is nothing the Clintons will not do to boost Brown and try and damage Cameron. I expect to hear similar offeings from Sarkozy and Merkel as the EU do their best to thwart a Cameron victory. The NI story is a complete non story and the manipulated airing and timing of it by the US administration is the practice of dark arts at its most unprincipled.What those wretches are trying to do is to pin the blame on Cameron if the deal is not voted through.
Seriously, can someone confirm that my link at 112 is genuine?
I mean, have i woken up in Bizarro world, I mean, the Guardian hailing George W Bush as a man peace?
141 - beating a bald man is the closest thing our Tim gets to sexual gratification, after his own bald general was lopped off in a fight in welcher’s prison.
144, being in Bizarro world would explain why tim now thinks Cameron is Jesus.
144 - Man peace = Man of Peace
The YouGov daily poll all set to be published here at 10pm.
145 - I so read that as
“Beating off a bald man is the closest thing our Tim gets to sexual gratification”
148. I’m bracing myself.
Well someone is off and running on Twitter with the 38% neck-and-neck story. Without clarity on what these figures are actually about they could look very silly.
148 I have a sinking feeling about it….
I’ll guess at a 2 point lead again
134. Tim, Clinton’s intervention regarding the Falklands was not helpful. I’d be wary of citing her as an authority, not least because she has a habit of mis-speaking!
152 - I’m fully expecting it to show Labour in the lead.
146 - Talking about second comings….
No I’ll shut up
Two more minutes
152, 154
I expect it to calm some tory nerves.
154 that would suck!
155. I think you need another lengthy spell of cold turkey.
New thread up.
On your mark, get set…Go !
156 Building up the tension a bit there, Mike!
157. Hmm…
it’s on conhome…
159 - No!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The YouGov poll for tomorrow’s Sun has the parties on:
Conservatives - 39% (+1)
Labour - 34% (+1)
Lib Dems - 16% (-1)
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/thetorydiary/2010/03/three-opinion-polls-tonight.html
Cue F5 buttons being tapped vigorously!!!!
Populus (Baxter)
Hung: LAB short 30 of majority
Seats: 296/293/31
102 Gordon Messenger - Those who think he is just a spokeman or indeed a messenger might reflect on this.
He served as the British Commander of Task Force Helmand,[14] during the 3 Commando Brigade deployment to Helmand province, Afghanistan on Operation Herrick IX in 2008–2009. For his leadership during this operation he was awarded a Bar to his DSO on 11 September 2009,[15] the first member of the Naval Service to receive the DSO and Bar for over 50 years.[16] He was promoted major-general in late 2009, and appointed lead spokesman on British operations in Afghanistan.
Sounds like a high-flyer. The spokesman role is likely to be short term before a return to the front line I would suggest.
This new opium poll seems to have calmed Tory nerves.
On uk polling report populas its 50 to 150 conservative target seats and this was about 45% 30 something in labours favor in 2005. They think this would equal at least a 10% lead in a national poll if it is now 38% a piece.