Tories and Labour move up one in the daily poll
March 8th, 2010| YouGov daily poll: The Sun | 08/03/10 | Prev |
|---|---|---|
| CONSERVATIVES | 39% | 38 |
| LABOUR | 34% | 33 |
| LIB DEMS | 16% | 17 |
| LAB to CON swing | 4% | 4% |
So YouGov continues to show a Labour share that is higher than other pollsters and the 34% means that Labour is hanging onto seventeen out eighteen of those who backed Blair’s party in 2005. That is certainly not supported by the splits linked to past vote reported by other firms.
The Tory share is broadly in line with others pollsters.
We also await a Populus poll of the marginals that was promised for 8pm. The numbers we should be looking out for are the swings on what happened in the surveyed seats in 2005.
Mike Smithson
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First?
Oh !
73% two-party share? Wow!
primus inter pares
First?
YouGov is so bloody exciting
Hmmm Lib Dems…you getting worried yet? You should be!
Bookies’ best prices (BlueSquare; 888Sport)
CON MAJ 4/7
NOM 13/8
LAB MAJ 10/1
What is happening to the Lib Dems?
Too late to get rid of Clegg?
LibDems getting squeezed like a Chippendale’s arse cheeks at a Blackpool hen night…
…as previously predicted.
13% people. That is all the LibDems will poll. 13%…..
Come on LibDems - you should be nibbling away at Labour, not giving them pieces of your own cake!
Vote Yellow, Get Brown is working; for Brown…
Libdem’s look to be in trouble.
Wow, what an amazing poll.
That will get the phone lines and fiber-optic cables humming with excitement
neck and neck on UNS - Labour wit nose in front but only by 3 seats on EC
YouGov:
Labour largest party.
Hung Parliament, Labour 28 seats short.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/swing-calculator
I retain my lack of faith in YouGov.
YouGov IGov, what the f……..Gov….
Gov.
Labour goes up 1, Lib Dems go down 1.
We are seeing a trend here aren’t we?
Cameron report is 2nd headline on BBC1 10pm News - story not mainly re Ashcroft but Ashcroft will be mentioned.
It is going to be like the London Mayorals with the LDs getting carted out on a stretcher.
vote yellow get red
It’s rumoured that the marginals poll has Labour and the Tories neck and neck at 38 percent. Take that with a pinch of salt however;).
7. Indeed, it would be interesting to know if they’re losing support in the their SW heartlands. The Tories gave them an absolute caning there in the Shire elections last June. I think the Tories will pick up significantly more LD seats than the 10 Mr Kellner is predicting and that could make a lot of difference!!
This poll is however streching the limit of credibility. For Labour to be at nigh on the same lvl of support as 2005? But for the tories to be higher?
No no no….
Nick Who?
23-It is in the Times website.
16 - and what an indictment for democracy if a Party losing by 5 % has the largest number of MP’s.
Lib Dem vote share is wrong. When it goes up (to 19/20%) it will all come from Labour and it will be goodnight Gordon…..
15 0.1% swing forward to Tory largest party
I simply do not believe the YouGov figures. To be honest, these polls are all getting rather tiresome.
It’s a Lib Dem squeeze.
Tories should be happy they’re nearing 40 IMO.
But, aye, looks like another odd YouGov. No way Labour can be on 34%, surely?
Well: VIPA foretold LibDem trouble. Let’s not forget just how many of the Tories target seats are LibDem.
That said: Marquee Mark, I think you’re a little… ummm… ‘forward thinking’ with your 13%. If you want, I’ll add 3% onto it, and offer you £1,000 a % on the LibDems. If they make your predicted 13%, you’ll take £3,000 off me.
Deal?
Thanks again, Dave…
I wonder if Brown will serve a full term?
Interestingly this rather confirms the weekend ICM of the Tories being at 40%. What we are seeing from YouGov is Labour higher than with any other pollster. However, with YouGov I would be intrested to see the actual figures.
On 16% the LDs would be losing seats all over the UK. The Tories would just gobble them up.
How To Commit Electoral Suicide in Several Weeks: by Nick Clegg
Smeary Gobble links, spins and lies
gabble: if Labour is the largest party, I will send you flowers, champagne and apologies.
I will also be leaving the country.
Still ashcroft doesn’t seem to be denting the tories does it?
lib dems love in with labour will cost them seats in london suburbs - local lib dems blame labour for all the worlds ills all the time and i think they genuinely mean it - must be hard to see their leader cosy up to labour
maybe even Vince will start to feel the pressure
28 How many votes would that equate to? Difficult to calculate re turnout, but could be much greater than a million for the Tories over Labour surely? Not that that would make any difference to Brown…
Speaking as a Tory, I think it’s ridiculous to blame Nick Clegg for the intense squeeze the Lib Dems are experiencing. Ming had Hague and Charlie had Howard. Clegg has Cameron. Big difference.
Two supplementary points:
1) The TV debates will give NC a unique chance to fight the squeeze.
2) The Lib Dems would be doing better in the headline polls if they were focusing on attacking Labour. Instead they are betting the farm on smashing into Cameron at every opportunity in order to get a hung Parliament.
So Labour has lost virtually no voters since 2005, eh? Just 1.3% since the GE.
Has anyone from YouGov actually stepped outside into reality? Anyone???
It would seem Roguey McRogue from Roguesville has found himself some full-time employment….
32 I agree. 34% want 5 more years of Gordon Brown. I dont think so.
Labour to poll 1% less than 2005? I don’t think so.
38 - You too, eh Robert?
I had an.. um… precautionary chat with HR in San Francisco last week. Just testing the waters…
Cameron report on BBC1 - Ken Clarke with him.
A disaster for the Lib Dems.
A lesson for Huhne et al: if you don’t attack Labour then they will recover their vote; if they recover their vote then the Lib Dems lose.
Even if I believe these figures, which I don’t, the Lib Dems and Tories will gain advantage from the weeks of campaign and from the three leadership debates.
Bob Sykes - give it a rest you boring little man….
42 - “I think it’s ridiculous to blame Nick Clegg”
Noblesse Oblige – who else you gonna blame then ?
re 16 Gabble you might prefer Andy Cooke’s which gives the Tories a majority of 20.
Forgive my muppet-like ignorance over the Lib Dem leadership chronology.
The broader point remains, however.
But still Tories creeping back to higher 30’s than before, close to the magic 40%.
38/46 - Me too.
I’ve had a few tentative feelers put out for me to go work in Australia.
That 38:38 Populous sounds like very bad news for the Tories
What are the raw data scores. The problem with you gov is their sampling. Because they dont poll enough past labour voters they automatcally upgrade labour results.
Clegg has himself to balme as he has done nothing but attack cameron at every opportunity. Wrong tactics big mistake
48, quite. The Lib Dem leadership can’t spread their legs for Labour and then complain that it hurts.
Amused to see the prophet, for it is Vince, is having such a big impact, despite the media loving him for reasons that are strange and mysterious.
44 - If Labour poll 34 in the GE It will be a hell of an effort from their no councillors, no money and no unity party.
Surely that Populus Poll is an outlier ?
Cameron was very aggressive in that interview with Robinson on the News. It actually looked like cracks were appearing in him.
I only went out for a couple of hours! I can’t keep up with all this new information.
And we’re still waiting for Populus - a marginals poll I understand.
I think I might try get a transfer to the SMH.
56: Entire;y depends on which seats were sampled. But it does sound onimous.
BBC Ten - Cameron refuses to deny that Ashcroft will get a job in Government if he wins.
Sheesh, just as the story was dying out, he breathes new life into it.
Did David suffer a major blow to the head in the autumn? - he’s gone from “PM-in-waiting” to outnumptying Numpty Brown…
Lib-Dems are being understated by YouGon and will go up in the campaign anyway.
Basically it all looks very much inline for the 40/30/20/10 vote shares that I’ve been banging on about for ages.
RE lib Dem squeeze.Good job the Lib Dems have weekend conference .They have dissapeared from view and need to get back in the headlines again!
However 16% on You Gov tracker read 18% on normal polls,and once the Campaign proper starts they will get momemtum taking them towards 21%.
43. Something I’ve been wondering is that while Labour’s headline vote share maybe similar to 2005, underneath the group’s of voters will be very different. It seems that Labour has regained the voters who went Yellow in 2005 in protest at Iraq but the traditional Tory/Lab swing voters who are motivated by economic issues have largely gone to the blues. At the same time Cameron has lost the “Angry from Tunbridge Wells” vote to UKIP in protest at the new European policy, but as with Blair in 2005 he can afford to lose those core voters if “the swingers” stay loyal?
No of course some of you are going to point out to me all the things that I’ve missed out!!
The interpretation to place on the Populus 38/38 will depend on exactly which marginals have been polled.
If it is the first few then it is extremely bad for the Tories; if it is those a bit further down the list then it will be OK but not great for them.
34 percent? Well there is a possibilty that the stay-aways from 01′ and 05′ are coming back to the fold at the prospect of Tory victory. Displacing those who have switched since 2005.
Bookies’ best prices - Next Liberal Democrat Leader
Chris Huhne 5/2 (PP, VC, WH)
Vince Cable 6/1 (WH)
Ed Davey 8 (VC)
Danny Alexander 12/1 (PP, WH)
Nick Harvey 12/1 (PP, VC)
David Laws 12/1 (PP, VC, WH)
Michael Moore 12/1 (PP, VC)
Julia Goldsworthy 16/1 (PP, WH)
Alistair Carmichael 20/1 (VC)
Sarah Teather 20/1 (VC)
Jeremy Brown 25/1 (VC)
David Howarth 33/1 (VC)
Simon Hughes 33/1 (VC)
Tavish Scott 33/1 (VC)
Lynne Featherstone 40/1 (PP, VC)
Charlie Kennedy 40/1 (VC)
Kirsty Williams 40/1 (VC)
Charli Kennedy looks like value at 40/1. Maybe 8/1 more like it?
43. Isn’t it different people though? Labour has lost some swing voters but gained from the Iraq-unwind from the Liberals, hence the Liberals’ falling share… And the LDs could get absolutely murdered in the FPTP dogfight…
Populus (Baxter)
Hung: LAB short 30 of majority
Seats: 296/293/31
61, it’s apparently 38:38 in marginals, but we have no details regarding what sort of marginals, how many respondents there were, etc.
63 - Well Sydney is where I am looking to move to.
60 That’s a big reason for holding back to have locals/GE the same day. A friend of mine is standing for Labour in a London borough and was saying to a ’senior cabinet minister’ the other weekend that there’s no chance of getting the vote out twice, although I’d have thought that the GE is a tab more important. This was said at an £85 per head fund raiser, so some people out there are still willing to put their hands in their pockets so that Labour can keep putting theirs on our pockets…
For heavens sake , some posters need to get a grip , there has been no movement in the LibDem figure or of any of the parties figures beyond MofE since the Yougov daily polls started , the first of which was Con 39 Lab 33 LD 17 . So in over 3 weeks there has been no movement in the polls worth speaking of at all - no squeeze on the Libdems no movement to Labour nothing except loads of meaningless comments from posters on here most of whom being political anoraks really should know better .
56. Until we know how Marginal the seats were in this margians poll its impossible to say whether its bad news for the Tories. 38/38 in the 50 most marginal seats would be a disaster for Team Blue. 38/38 in seats 150-200 would be amazing. We simply don’t know yet.
71 - Well on current polling trends, Chris Huhne would be lucky to win his seat, let alone the party leadership.
49
How on earth can you envisage that? If I’d said even only a few weeks ago that a poll would be published which would show Labour on 34%, (I’m amazed) with only 2 months or less to the GE, most on this site, (including me) wouldn’t have believed it.
One of the most absurd things anyone can do, when beliefs or assumptions are under pressure, is to create scenarios which will put everything right again, its just as likely to get worse.
I posted some weeks ago that in marginals it’s proving very easy to squeeze the LibDem vote, and it’s fully compensating for drift among (in particular) C2DE Labour voters. I shouldn’t think the picture is remotely similar in LibDem seats, but it’ll be interesting to see if the Populus poll shows something similar. If it’s on marginals with the Tories up to say 8% behind Labour, I think it will.
52 - only if you leave the 100% rewind on, which on 34% would be daft.
Polls like this hint at Labour getting back most of the anti Iraq war tacticals.
65. BBC…Ashcroft….News at 10. Predictable.
33 Robert - just to clarify - are we talking percentage of the UK wide poll (ie including NI numbers)?
Mulling over your proposition (almost worth it if only to see JackW’s head explode at the very notion!!
)
Everyone is saying how the LibDems gain when they get exposure. I am taking the contrarian view - that they will be seen to be a party with no policies who are led by a poor politician whose failings will be painfully exposed in three debates. If he gets smashed in the first debate, his continuing presence in the remaining two could be an embarrassment of monumental proportions.
76 - So you’re happy for the lib dems to be consistently to be polling at 16/17 per cent?
Guess what, so am I.
76 Mark Senior is 100% right.
Now I need a shower.
Mike - why do you persist in claiming that a poll shows labour holding onto, in this case 17/18ths, of its support.
There is churn in the electorate. Labour could lose 20% of its 2005 supporters and poll 30% + by winning new voters and Lib Dems.
The analysis also implies that all changes happen through switching, when turnout is at least as important. It may be that Labour lose a chunk of 2005 supporters, but that get the votes of people that abstained in 2005.
On the poll though - it is clear that the yougov family is showing higher Labour figures than other pollsters. The Conservatives are firmly in the 37 - 40 range across the board.
Was not the Lib Dem vote boosted in 2005 by Labour voters disenchanted ove Iraq? Is not this poll simply showing them returning to Labour? My advice to Nick Clegg is to stop constantly siding with Labour and never missing an opportunity to slag off the Tories. He desparately needs to hold on to those 2005 Labour voters and he surely can only do that by painting Labour in an unnatractive light as is possible.
84 - Actually I’m not happy.
I’ve got money on pretty much the lib dems holding onto all their seats.
43. No. Wrong. I agree with the several theorists on here who say that what we are witnessing is: the Return of the Iraq Refuseniks.
Labour voters who jumped ship to the Lib Dems in despair in 2005, mainly thanks to Iraq, have now gotten over their huff and are prepared to vote for Brown, because of their greater fear, loathing and hatred of a possible Tory government.
Most of them are just payroll voters - scroungers, drunks, tax creditees, council workers, fake cripples, Guardinista, gruesomely overpaid dentists in Darlington.
But there are a lot of them. And their millions make up for the millions who have deserted Labour since 2005 thanks to immigration, crime, the economy, Europe, tax, Afghanistan, etc.
The cheering thought for Tories is that they are still on 40% or thereabouts, which is good given the shyteness of their campaign (how well might they be doing if they were remotely competent?); moroever, the rest of the LDs must now be thinking of voting Tory, if they are seriously faced with 5 more years of Labour.
Labour have surely squeezed every vote they can from the doubters and returnees. Tories now need to work on the remaining swingers. The election is still Cameron’s to win.
38. Seconded
80 The last marginals poll showed no significant squeeze on Libdem voters , it showed the LibDems at 15% compared to 17% at the 2005 GE .
is this 38/38 populus fact, or a wild internet rumour? I cannot believe 38% in the English marginals prefer Brown to Cameron.
Believe it when I see it.
76 - “get a grip , there has been no movement in the LibDem figure”
Mark Senior, so you are happy that the LD’s regularly poll 16% !
Complacent or what.
92 ollie
That is what it says in this article pointed out by Me (not by me!) on the previous thread
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/rachel_sylvester/article7054580.ece
70 - what I never see mentioned much on here is how much the 2005 result over-stated the LDs and hurt Labour because of the Iraq War backlash among lefties. The Tories won seats 5 years ago simply because of the Labour vote falling whilst their own vote stayed largely static. And this has meant that in many seats where the LDs look likely winners, they are anything but; and seats where the Tories look set for easy wins, they are probably a good distance further back than it seems.
I’ve said before, but I think the 2005 result should be ignored; I still think the Tories are looking to win from their 2001 base.
Of course, with Brown as unpopular as he was, and the country on its knees, the Tories should still have won handsomely, even from a 2001 base.
Take Scotland out of it and what would the Tory lead be?
93 - Fact, sadly, we don’t know what marginals were polled.
Bad poll for the LibDems. But Labour also needs the LibDems to do relatively well, else the balance of advantage starts to swing the Tories way at the point where Lab and Con have the same number of seats.
*4 It is only the Yougov family of polls that has the LibDems at 16/17% , the other pollsters show 18/22% .
89. “Most of them are just payroll voters - scroungers, drunks, tax creditees, council workers, fake cripples, Guardinista, gruesomely overpaid dentists in Darlington.”
How many of these would actually get down to the polling booth and vote though?
48
Like I said in the last thread, the lib dems should be taking at least 3 points off the labour vote at the moment.
I have no idea why they are not attacking labour harder.
93.
I saw it with my own eyes on The Times website. Piece by Rachel Sylvester alluded to “38-38″ in the marginals - though, of course which marginals wasn’t mentioned.
93 To be fair to Mark, some of us take YouGov’s figures with a sprinkling of salt. Why shouldn’t he?
They changed their weighting after overstating the LDs at the last GE and I think a lot of us think that the ‘left split’ is wrong.
89 - absolutely right Sean. The prophesied collapse in the Tory vote has simply not happened. Both ICM and now Yougov have them gaining support - so much for Ashcroft !
“Secret Whitehall papers on Lord Ashcroft peerage talks to be released”
“Secret Whitehall papers on the talks over Lord Ashcroft’s peerage are due to be released next week. The Cabinet Office said yesterday that MPs had asked for further documents on the deal that allowed the peer to keep his non-dom status.”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article7054672.ece
Another YouGov poll?
A combination of loaded questions, dubious weighting and sampling of people not eligable to vote.
It gives a sugar high to Labour drones but otherwise, YouGov has no credibility.
If the general poll gap is about 6-7% on average, with one dubious outlier of 2%, and another marginals poll a few days ago suggesting the Tories were going to take about 90 odd seats from Labour - then it’s reasonable enough to presume it’s a poll from lower down the marginal target list.
Unless it’s a serious outlier
106 - Labour really are wasting their time on this.
42. It is wrong to say that Clegg has it tough because he is up against Caneron as opposed to Hague or Howard.
It is pretty obvious that the LabDems are losing support to Labour and in that respect, their previous leaders had it far tougher, being up against Blair. Up against Brown. Clegg should be piling on the support.
Problem is, he is so non-descript that most voters wouldn’t recognise him if they passed him in the street. The LabDems would be better to elect a cardboard cut-out of Charles Kennedy as their leader.. at least more voters would recognise him!
106. Keep on plugging away Gabby.
Judging by polling trends, Cammo just needs to say he’ll make Ashcroft Chancellor of the Exchequer and he’ll win with a comfortable majority.
If I was a Lib Dem I would be worried by now. Sure they get a bounce during elections but it’s no more than a point or two. At this stage in the game I’d have thought an average of 20+% would be an absolute minimum for them to be in the running to end up with more than 50 mp’s and they are a mile off.
Mind you, watching them dust off the same ‘anyone but the Tories’ campaign (c.1987, rev. 1992) down here I can’t say I’m surprised.
To be fair I suppose people rarely change a winning formula, until they realise it’s not winning any more; usually after a big loss.
97. John - “Take Scotland out of it and what would the Tory lead be?”
8 points
104. SallyC
The Yougov weightings not only provide a daily uplift to Labour but also to the Libdems and yet they still can’t get above 16%?
Sorry, should have added that it’s about the 38-38 marginal poll
93. Just seen it on ten o’clock news.
The trouble with Cameron and the Tories is that the closer we get to the election the more unappealing they become. Rawnsley’s ‘Dispatches’ effort revealed Cameron for the sham person he really is. ‘Call me Dave’ said that he had no ideology but was a practical person. How can he even attempt to become PM if he has nothing that he believes in? The polls are all over the place but I don’t think the public will be silly enough to vote in a load of Tory toffs in the next election. Go back to your previous cruel pastime of hunting foxes Cameron. You say it is time for a change but I don’t think so, not this time!
105 A 1% improvement in the Conservative % is not evidence of the Conservatives gaining support just as a 1% fall would not be evidence of them losing support . For heavens sake again go and read up about Polling and Margin Of Error before you try and post deductions that are not statistically justified .
113. Marcus, if you were a Lib Dem they’d be right to be worried !!
FoW: I’ve was approached by an LA based firm a while back. Maybe it’s time to restart discussions…
This quote from the article.
Nowhere is this more true than in the marginal seats that will determine who wins the election. As our poll shows today, the fight there is intensifying, with Labour and the Conservatives neck and neck on 38 per cent. Many voters say they believe it is “time for a change” but are not sure that they want to support David Cameron. In the key battlegrounds there is all to play for.
‘Key Battlegrounds’ well that must mean the first 100 or so marginals surely
106. Really. zzzzzzzzzzzzz. Is this the strategy for Election? For the next 5 years. Vote Labour if you don’t want Ashcroft.?
Perhaps in return Cammo could suggest ‘Vote Labour if you want the Country to be run by a the Unite Union for the next 5 years.’
118
Go on, brainless one, explain what gordo’s about apart from keeping himself at number 10?
‘George Bush to David Cameron: don’t derail Northern Ireland peace process’
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2010/mar/08/george-bush-david-cameron-ireland
Mark Senior is relaxed that the Lib Dems are 6 points down on their 2005 GE performance: i.e. that they have lost MORE THAN A QUARTER OF THEIR VOTERS.
I’m not sure he will be so relaxed when he realises that, as Rod Crosby says, eventually a Lib Dem collapse starts to benefit the Tories - bigtime.
115 Sorry jsfl , you are incorrect with that statement .
118 - come off it Lily - Cameron did not say he had no ideology. The point he was making was that he is not RULED by dogma but was a practical man i.e does it work. Sounds a pretty sane approach to me.
106 - Isn’t Dave seeing Alan Titchmarsh this week?
A Hague sized patio on order?
119. “A 1% improvement in the Conservative % is not evidence of the Conservatives gaining support just as a 1% fall would not be evidence of them losing support”
Oh yes it is, it’s just not conclusive proof. In fact, it’s not particularly strong evidence but when the poll results go up or down, the balance of probability is that the underlying support has moved that way too. It might not have done but in the absence of any other evidence, it’s not unreasonable to say that it probably has.
97 John
Rule of thumb to get the E&W topline figures from a GB poll.
Add 2 to Tories. Deduct 1 from Labour.
From my own experiences I can confirm that labour lost a lot of hard core support down my way in 2005 because of Iraq. These people are voters(not non voters as alluded to by some on here) and I am led to believe many will return to the fold this time.
121 robert. Hhmmmm …. outwith of PB I look forward to you offering tasty odds in the 2012 POTUS election for North Carolina !!
121 - If you end up in LA and I end up in SF we’ll have to meet up in San Luis Obispo for dinner and bemoan the fate of our homeland!
(Having said that, LA is a hellhole - so approach with caution!)
118. Hey look, it’s Doreen Spart!
113.
“If I was a Lib Dem I would be worried by now”
If Marcus Wood were a Lib Dem, EVERYBODY would be worried!!
What drugs are these people on that make them all go hyper when polls bobble around within margins of error?
TAKE A LONG HARD LOOK AT THE TORYS.
122. Who knows? My guess is they wouldn’t bother polling the first 30 at least, because they would assume they are all Tory gains? But really, theres no point trying to second guess.
127. Technically I am not. The Libdems figure has been weighted upward in every tracker poll but I will concede that Yougov has always been rather short of Libdems in its sample.
Li(l)ly Allen - how about going back to making siht records, ay?
I saw the Rawnsley doc and it was extremely tame. In fact, Cameron came out of it pretty well, as did Boris, Gove and Fox.
As for Cameron saying he has no ideology, what’s wrong with that?
One man’s ideal is another man’s nightmare. That’s what you social-engineering, Socialist types don’t understand. Conservatism isn’t an ideology, it’s a pragmatic approach to situations/events/curcumstances as they arise.
It was ideology that took us to war in Iraq.
It was ideology that’s maxed out the nation’s credit card.
118 ‘The trouble with Cameron and the Tories is that the closer we get to the election the more unappealing they become’
Are you speaking for yourself? If so, were the Tories appealing to when the elecion wasnt so close, say 3 years ago?
137. “TAKE A LONG HARD LOOK AT THE TORYS.”
Done. Much better than five more years of Brown. Please come again.
No one who’s knocked on any doors could possibly think the Labour vote has held steady since 2005. There’s something badly wrong with these numbers. I’ve never seen so many don’t knows and won’t votes as in recent canvassing, a great number of them former Labour voters.
Sky paper review:
The Times big headline tomorrow:
Something like: “Labour and Conservatives neck and neck in marginals”
132 - not an entire surprise if true - Labour does seem to be concentrating on its core vote.
Though if they’re just piling up votes in places where they’ll win anyway.
140. Q.F.T.
125. That’s probably worth another point or 2 for Cammo!
JO jO 137 TAKE A LONG HARD LOOK AT THE TORYS
Now now. enough of your smut
Ladbrokes:
Mebyon Kernow NOT to save their deposit in any seat 1/2
Mebyon Kernow to save their deposit in any seat 6/4
garbage talk on sky from hoey - 2 1/2% swing to tories but neck and neck?
has anyone actually read the times yet?
Another poll of the sort that may help to bring down the electoral system through its sheer perversion of the vote in terms of seats.
Keep them coming!
Here it is:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article7054655.ece
143 Good.
Let’s focus on the Union money buying them and the effect that will have on the markets.
O/T can anyone give me an email contact for Shadsy?
Populus puts the two main parties on about 38 per cent in the seats it polled. That amounts to a swing of about 6.7 per cent to the Tories from Labour since 2005 in those seats.
Could Labour poll 40pc by election day?
Hmm:
“The poll targeted 100 Labour-held seats where the Tories came second at the last general election and which are 50 to 149 in their list of targets.
The poll excluded the 50 easiest seats for the Tories but included those the party needs to win for an overall majority. “
from the Times
‘Populus puts the two main parties on about 38 per cent in the seats it polled. That amounts to a swing of about 6.7 per cent to the Tories from Labour since 2005 in those seats.
The poll targeted 100 Labour-held seats where the Tories came second at the last general election and which are 50 to 149 in their list of targets.
The poll excluded the 50 easiest seats for the Tories but included those the party needs to win for an overall majority.’
Riddell - Swing 6.7%, seats 50 to 149 in Tory target list
Tory best line: it’s neck-and-neck in the marginals so vote Conservative to get Brown out.
Labour best line: Tories may win a landslide so vote Labour to keep them in check.
Tory target seats 50-149
So what’s all the fuss about?
So this poll is of seats #50-149. So a neck and neck situation is actually good news for the Tories.
Suck it up Labour straw clutchers!
151 The strategic error made by the LD’s at their conference in not hauling Labour over the coals on their record is really beginning to bite with a vengeance.
151. Should be enough to get Cameron to 326. Good news.
Key figure surely is the 6.7% swing - that sounds encouraging.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article7054655.ece
target seats 50-149
6.7% swing
In the key seats, Labour is still just ahead, on 38.2 per cent, down from 45.3 per cent in the 2005 election. The Tories are on 37.6 per cent, up from 31.4 per cent. This means that they should gain 97 Labour-held seats. Taking account of boundary changes, it is likely that the Conservatives would need up to 20 further seats from the Liberal Democrats and others for an overall majority.
50 to 149 in targets. That’s OK but not great for the Tories.
155. Only in your dreams, young Ben.
150. Extreme future: Hung parliament. Labour 30 seats short. LDs murdered in the FPP system - 31 seats. Labour form an alliance by offering the LDs AV in return for their measly yield of 31 seats. Lib-Lab majority of 1. AV introduced. Election called. Lib-Lab majority of 150.
150: We have the kind of electoral system you are wishing for in Ireland, and it has not done us any good. In fact I think it is worse then you have because its too easy to get power. You should be careful what you wish for.
As a Lib Dem these polls don’t make me ecstatic. Clearly I would love to see us back in the 20’s where we were a month ago. I guess where it really matters to us is the marginals where we have a chance. I am not sure I understood what BPIX said in its very large sruvey about Lib Dem / Tory marginals as to whether they were good or not… and I can’t find the full data! By the way we have been at 16% in the Yougov tracker before and the next day went to 19%.
I don’t attack anyone in my literature (only a councillor) just tell people about our policies and what we do. If they want to vote for someone else - fair enough. Our PPC is an attack dog but I guess you are what you are. By the way the Lib Dems are not short of policies - we have almost too many. I guess that is why we are plugging the Fairness theme but I do agree the message has not got home yet.
Piece of piss for the Tories.
97 seats from Labour, plus 20-odd from the Lib Dems in the Midlands and South West = David Cameron is the next prime minister.
5 more years????
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/lawandorder/7400372/True-scale-of-violent-crime-rise-revealed.html
“The true scale of how violent crime has grown under Labour has been disclosed by Whitehall officials.”
“Violent attacks are estimated to be 44 per cent higher than they were in 1998 after research on the way police record them allowed comparisons for the first time.
The study, by the independent House of Commons Library, shows violence against the person increased from 618,417 to 887,942 last year.
The devastating review comes despite repeated claims by the Government that violent crime has come down substantially since it took power.”
Note, Labour-held seats. This tells us nothing about Tory prospects against the Lib Dems.
Details from the Times:
“The poll shows that the switch of voters from Labour to the Tories is about 1.5 to 2 points higher in the battleground seats than nationally. That might be worth an extra 20 MPs to the Conservatives, smaller than many in the party would hope after the big spending on these targets. It might be enough only to take the Tories to the threshold of the 326 seats they need for a bare overall majority in the Commons. The election is weeks away, almost certainly on May 6.
Many voters still have doubts about the Tories. The poll shows that in the key marginals 41 per cent of all voters, and 45 per cent of women, believe that it is “time for a change” but are not sure the change should be to the Conservatives. Thirty-four per cent think it is “time for a change” to the Tories, with 19 per cent saying that it does not seem like “time for a change” from Labour.
Populus puts the two main parties on about 38 per cent in the seats it polled. That amounts to a swing of about 6.7 per cent to the Tories from Labour since 2005 in those seats.
The poll targeted 100 Labour-held seats where the Tories came second at the last general election and which are 50 to 149 in their list of targets.
The poll excluded the 50 easiest seats for the Tories but included those the party needs to win for an overall majority.
In the key seats, Labour is still just ahead, on 38.2 per cent, down from 45.3 per cent in the 2005 election. The Tories are on 37.6 per cent, up from 31.4 per cent. This means that they should gain 97 Labour-held seats. Taking account of boundary changes, it is likely that the Conservatives would need up to 20 further seats from the Liberal Democrats and others for an overall majority.
The poll suggests that recent talk of a Tory “wobble” has affected voters’ expectations. Only 32 per cent in the marginals expect a Tory overall majority, against 43 per cent in a national poll last month. Similarly, 25 per cent now think that a Labour overall majority is most likely, against 16 per cent.
The row over the tax status of Lord Ashcroft, the Tory deputy chairman, has damaged the party. Of the 68 per cent who said that they had followed the story quite closely or even vaguely, some 28 per cent — including 10 per cent of Tories — said that it had made their overall view of the party less favourable.
David Cameron is ahead of Gordon Brown on eight out of ten personal statements. More than two thirds thought that Mr Cameron was “a nice, likeable, person”, against just under a half for Mr Brown, but both leaders were generally regarded as family men and as being strong and determined.
The bullying row has damaged Mr Brown a bit: 38 per cent said that he treated his staff well, compared with 59 per cent who said the same of Mr Cameron. Thirty-four per cent thought that
Mr Brown and Mr Cameron sent their children to state schools, even though both do.
Populus repeated a question that proved revealing in the 2008 US presidential campaign, on whether change or experience was needed most. In the US, the margin for change over experience was about 2 to 1, highlighting Barack Obama’s edge over John McCain. In Britain, 56 per cent favour change and 40 per cent experience.”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article7054655.ece
Populus would get Cameron about 100 Labour seats leaving him needing 15 from Lib Dems, Nats and in NI to get a majority.
A small imporvement of 0.5% swing forward in the marginals would push them clear of the line
153. Marcus, try politics@ladbrokes.co.uk. Or, if you are on twitter, you can message me via the ladpolitics account.
139 Technically you are incorrect , the LibDem figures have not been weighted upwards by anything like the percentage or numbers by which Yougov have undersampled LibDem Party ID voters , viz Sun 5th March LibDems undersampled by 42 voters 22% , increase in LibDem weighted figure 3 voters 1.5% .
155 - Well if you want to stake some money on that Ben, there would be several people willing to offering you odds on that.
126 SeanT
If the LDs really have lost a quarter of their 2005 vote due to Labour returnees, how much further will their rating fall when right-wing LDs take notice of Clegg’s growing defence of Labour and transfer to the Conservatives?
This poll shows how the media narrative is against Cameron though doesn’t it? The headline could quite rightly be;
CAMERON ON COURSE TO FORM GOVERNMENT WITH SMALL MAJORITY
and instead becomes;
LABOUR AND TORIES NECK AND NECK IN THE MARGINALS
After last few week’s wobbles this is a good poll for the Tories. ICM and Populus polls this last few days have clearly shown Brown bounce 113 or whatever it is has been checked.
I imagine the Populus marginals poll will come as a mighty relief to CCHQ, given the idiocy being spouted on Twitter and elsewhere about it.
166 But I am right in saying that a slight overestimation in the Labour vote, as per, and/or underestimation in ours could make a big difference?
A swing of 6.7% is equivalent to a national lead of 10%, much the same as ICM (which uses the same methodology), suggesting that the
Tories’ ‘marginals bonus’ is disappearing. We’re left with the separate question of whether the Yougov or ICM/Populus approach is a better predictor. If Yougov is correct and there is no Tory marginals bonus, then the Tories aren’t going to gain any of these seats at all. But if Populus is correct then they should gain against half of them.
Extraploating on the ‘enhanced 1.5 to 2%’ implies a national figure for Populus of 38/39 to 30/31 and in line with ICM
re 173 but Floater that’s not news. Whatever the Home Office’s and tim’s fantasy figures say, people know that violent crime has gone up.
We are still seeing polls fitting media headlines rather than vice versa.
The YouGov polling figures are perfectly positioned for the opening of the GE campaign. The handicaps have been applied. Just ask yourself the following question about each of the main party shares: If the shares are going to move in which direction and by how much?
Tories 39% +4/-2
Labour 34% +1/-7
LibDem 16% +5/-1
So Labour are overstated and near the top of likely outcomes. Lib Dems at their lowpoint. The Tories just above their lowest.
Election campaigns are all about gaining momentum. It is clear to me that the YouGov handicap strongly favours Cameron and Clegg over Brown.
In a wholly unrelated observation we should note the comments made by Anthony Wells on the tweaks made to YouGov’s methodology and the likely need to adjust weightings as experience is gained:
Because you can’t tell who is going to respond to which [YouGov] survey, it also makes it more difficult to calculate the proportions of people to invite to get a sample that needs the least possible amount of weighting – hence the slightly higher levels of weighting (though it’s worth saying they remain relatively low compared to some of the weights needed for quasi-random samples).
They’ll come down over time as the panel team get used to the patterns of response amongst different groups (looking at recent results, for example, we could probably do with inviting fewer men over 55 – too many are responding!) but in the meantime the effect upon polls should be just to make them a tiny bit more volatile.
173 - Labour have some explaining…..Broken Britain…no, remember crime is down over 40% under Labour….oh wait….
So neck-and-neck in Tory target seats 50-150 implies around a hundred gains from Labour. Add in fifteen to twenty from the Lib Dems if tonight’s YouGov is close to the mark and it’s touch and go as to whether Cameron has a majority.
169 - Bobajob - AV will be introduced over my dead body, I will harangue, cajole, shout at and do anything else possible to lib dems so that they don’t commit suicide in that way. I would hope that non-ideological types from labour would also join in the movement to vote it down.
Seriously, this would entail a massive campaign to stop the system become even more perverted. Whatever it takes.
181 - Why on earth would a Murdoch owned paper set a media agenda against the Tories ?
119 - a bit harsh Mak to say the least. The point I was making - and its still valid is that the Tory vote is holding up and not disintegrating. If anything it has increased in the last week.
To my skeptical layman’s eye, this looks like a fairly decent poll for the Tories: not least because we must remember Smithson’s various Golden Rules.
If Cameron takes 100 seats off Labour he will win a majority.
I wonder if we are seeing the Knox Paradox in action? Tory polling does seem to have perked up, just a tad, since That Poll which showed a likely Brown victory.
So, basically:
- the Tories will make significant gains from Labour (and presumably some from LDs) but haven’t sealed the deal - yet. Will need a decent campaign to push them over that line.
- Labour are concentrating on their core vote and relying on those who voted LD in 2005 “just this once”. Have lost those who switched to them in 1997.
- LDs aren’t getting much traction, will fall backwards, suffering through many/most of their voters not being dyed-in-the-wool LDers but floating voters.
- Others may/may not do well in the election.
- All this in a phony war stage, without much significantly relevant campaigning
Is that a fair assumption?
Why is ashcroft not damaging the Tories? I think the same reason bullygate didn’t damage Brown. The public expect politicians to be in hock to the rich, or foul mouthed yobs. So there is no change in the polls. Eaves nice guy image will play well in the campaign against this background. I thought he came across well with Rawnsley.
The labour party have nothing to offer Britain. They are doomed, looks like they will be taking the lib dems down with them. The libdems will lose 20+ seats. Pro Europe and pro tax, pro labour, might as well book a trip to dignitas. I have little real enthusiasm for the Tories but they are the only real alternative.
172. Police recorded crime is not the best way to measure crime trends.
Despite the Telegraph’s sheer desperation to try and prove otherwise, only the British crime survey can do that. And it shows violent crime well down since the spike in violent offences under the last Tory government.
5 more years of Tories increasing crime? No thanks.
171. The Lib Dems were never at 20% with YouGov during the early part of this year so you shouldn’t be downhearted.
On the other hand, 181, the anti-Cammo coverage and the highlighting of a tightening race could well do the Tories a few favours.
Remember 1992? When it looked like Labour would win, Tory England stirred into action to keep them out.
Remember 2008? Tories in the outer boroughs stirred into action for Bo-Jo, to ensure Red Ken was denied another 4 years.
Thanks Shadsy I will contact you in the morning.
Good news from the Times, I am pleased.
Bobajob,
You’re frightening the children.
175 If Labour are down 7.1% and Conservatives up 6.2% then LibDems are down around 1% , not much of a squeeze going on is there .
Toenails “Ashcroft” interview with Cameron
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/nickrobinson/2010/03/cameron_defends.html
196 utter codswallop. Have you done your prep yet?
I’d like to see someone poll the 150 most vulnerable Labour seats acccording to Ladbrokes odds. Might get a more telling result…
“Neck and Neck” is news gold for Labour.
204. Losing 100 of your key seats, including dear old NPMP is good news Gabby?
By the way, as noted by LondonStatto at [3], the Con+Lab share at 73% is very high.
In fact, this is the first YouGov poll to record such a high share for the two since 4th April last year. The most recent by any pollster was a Populus one just two days later.
re 196 BenM no-one believes it - just do a straw poll of your colleagues in the bunker tomorrow. Crime against children in not recorded in the Crime Survey. Crime against businesses is not recorded. If previously you’d mugged someone for their mobile to sell and now you shoplift instead then that crime wouldn’t be recorded. The British Crime Survey is the biggest pile of crap ever invented.
206 - Opinium are recording 67% as a combined share. That’s a very big difference.
203.
I think someone who styles themselves as a fan of the very woman who got the UK into this economic and social mess wouldn’t know true evidence if it slapped them in the chops.
181 - Don’t knock the media for pushing the ‘it’s neck-and-neck’ narrative.
It may be spurious, self-serving and designed to create excitement (and sell papers) but, as Mike points out, it helps drive voters towards the Tories.
208. I quite agree but Opinium’s 17% Other score looks way high to me.
Can`t quite comprehend the Tory gloating here - neck and neck in key marginals after all these years of the alleged worse government in 200 years and that`s the best you can do ?
192 Perhaps a little harsh but let’s go back a week Yougov Sun poll a week ago Con 39 , poll today Con 39 no change whatsover . I repeat all we are seeing is MofE movements no statistically meaningful change since the Yougov/Sun daily polls started . Whatever the true position is allowing for the Yougov weightings there has been NO change in voting intentions in the last 3 weeks NONE at all .
191 “Why on earth would a Murdoch owned paper set a media agenda against the Tories?”
Well, perhaps to rob Labour of its “best line: Tories may win a landslide so vote Labour to keep them in check.”
Plus, as the campaign draws to a close, the Sun can go in with spear tackles on Labour - and then again proclaim “It’s The Sun wot won it…David Cameron was heading for a hung Parliament - until The Sun [fill in "wot the Sun did" as appropriate...]“
209
Undeserving of a response. Goodnight.
This marginals poll is almost identical to the YouGov marginals poll a few days ago.
That poll had a swing of 6.5%, turning 95 Labour seats blue. {22 LD/SNP/KHHC seats needed for a Tory overall majority}.
This poll has a swing of 6.7%, turning 97 Labour seats blue. {20 LD/SNP/KHHC seats needed for a Tory overall majority}.
Nice to have the polls reinforcing each other like this.
209 - You do know that woman left office nearly 20yrs ago?
And that your party have been in charge for the last 13yrs?
Unless you mean your party have been following her policies?
212 - it’s not “neck and neck in the marginals” though, is it?
It’s “neck and neck in Tory targets 50-150 where Labour were several points ahead in 2005″
212. You do realise the king of swing the Tories need to get any kind of majority don’t you? Historically the swing this poll is pointing towards (over 6%) is pretty exceptional.
The Tories were never going to get a landslide at this election. The majority was always going to be oretty small. Whilst I think it’ll be a bit better than this poll suggests I certainly don’t think it’ll be above 40.
207.
No, “you” don’t believe it.
Interesting that someone posting to a blog site centred on surveys cannot bring themselves to trust one with 40,000 respondents utilising broadly the same methodology for nearly three decades?
The British crime survey is not indicative of total numbers of crime, but it does indicate the trend. There is no evidence to suggest crimes against children are bucking the overall trend. So that little concern is dealt with.
Similarly a review of crime against commercial property was undertaken several years ago, and this showed that the fall in the such crime was broadly similar to the overall BCS. So no joy for the fear-mongers there either.
Overall good night of polls for Con - Populus + Opinium both good and YouGov about par.
43
‘43.So Labour has lost virtually no voters since 2005, eh? Just 1.3% since the GE.’
Quite possible,in 2009 alone 203,000 immigrants received UK citizenship and can now vote.
Add the immigration figures since 2005 to the commonwealth & other EU immigrants and you have at least another million + voters.
As we know now the economic arguments for mass immigration were just a smokescreen.
218 - for “several points ahead” read “14 points ahead”…
Well as much I’d love to stay here all night, I’m off to do the night shift at the hospital, and stare at my kids.
222 - how many immigrants vote though?
If you weren’t politically minded and lived in Germany long enough to be allowed to vote, would you vote for the CDU/SPD/others?
Or would you see it as irrelevant to you?
209
I didn’t know Gordon had had a sex change.
I’ll tell you something about Ashcroft: a few days ago the Tories must have been nervous that the media onslaught threatened their prospects.
They ain’t nervous now.
178. So you are now arguing the difference between an ‘undersampling’ and a weighting uplift. ROFLMAO you really are a pedant…….
I’ve clearly missed something - are Labour having a Conference this year? If not, will just the Lib Dems ‘bounce’ next weekend (not that Brighton did the Tories many favours)
224. Give them a X from us (including Gabby and Tim, I suppose
) 
222 = 223
Damn numbering
“Labour And Tories Neck-And-Neck In Key Seats ”
“bour and the Tories have equal support in 100 of the most marginal seats to be fought in the General Election, according to a Times poll.”
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/Politics/Labour-And-Tories-Neck-And-Neck-In-100-Of-The-Most-Marginal-Seats-To-Be-Fought-In-The-Election/Article/201003215569830?lpos=Politics_Second_UK_News_Article_Teaser_Region_1&lid=ARTICLE_15569830_Labour_And_Tories_Neck-And-Neck_In_100_Of_The_Most_Marginal_Seats_To_Be_Fought_In_The_Election
lol.
Re 233. Thats to 227 now. Doh!
224
Hope it all goes well TSE.
230.
I’ll tell you something about Ashcroft: a few days ago the Tories must have been nervous that the media onslaught threatened their prospects.
They ain’t nervous now.
More Tory complacency.
I bet they jolly well are.
235 “Voters polled in the chosen 100 seats put Labour just ahead, on 38.2%, down from 45.3% in the 2005 election.
The Tories are on 37.6%, up from 31.4%.
It means they should gain 97 Labour-held seats”
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/Politics/Labour-And-Tories-Neck-And-Neck-In-100-Of-The-Most-Marginal-Seats-To-Be-Fought-In-The-Election/Article/201003215569830?lpos=Politics_Second_UK_News_Article_Teaser_Region_1&lid=ARTICLE_15569830_Labour_And_Tories_Neck-And-Neck_In_100_Of_The_Most_Marginal_Seats_To_Be_Fought_In_The_Election
lol.
235. Nearly 100 MP’s about to be flushed down the pan Gabby.
The Populus marginals have been out for a long while:
“Labour and the Conservatives are neck and neck in the marginal seats that will determine the outcome of the general election, raising doubts over David Cameron’s ability to win a clear overall majority, according to a special poll for The Times.
…these areas than in the country as a whole, the results suggest that the shift is well below the hopes and expectations of Mr Cameron’s strategists.”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article7054655.ece
Does the marginals polling justify any of Andy Cooke’s assumptions?
Simply bad news from the marginals for the Tories.
News in NI tonight is that Ian Jnr has been selected to contest his Dad’s North Antrim seat for the DUP against Jim Allister.
This will be an exceptionally brutal, vicious and nasty campaign, those of a nervous disposition would do well to look away!!
The marginals were the last refuge for the Tory pollster watcher, now even that’s down the pan.
Goodnight TSE. Hope all is well.
I’m starting to get poll overload now. Lot’s of nonsense being written by journalists and lots of dodgy comparisons being made etc etc. It is all getting rather tedious.
Roll on the night then one, some or many of the pollsters could look rather stupid and I really hope they and their newspapers do because all this spinning (and not for any party but for their own circulations) is really starting to tarnish this election and it hasn’t even properly begun yet……
240.
Why’s that? Is the election tomorrow?!
LoL!
238 - no Ben Bot, they were nervous. Now, having seen several polls either holding steady or even improving slightly, they are relaxing. Not complacent, just calm.
Labour/media fail.
Next attempt: Latvian SS smear redux. Watch this space.
I honestly fail to see why Gabble thinks this is good news. It would be if it were true. But this way they get the worst of both worlds.
“224.Overall good night of polls for Con - Populus + Opinium both good and YouGov about par.”
You are joking?!!!!!!!
It’s further evidence of a hung parliament and the marginal poll is a a near bombshell on Tory hopes of a majority.
233 - I will do
237/243 - Everything is well.
My mum is paranoid about someone stealing her two lovely grandchildren. So she’s got people always at the hospital keeping an eye on them. And I think i really should put in a shift at least once.
They leave hospital on Wednesday. Wooo!
Is it me, or do parents become a bit demented the moment they become grandparents?
Now, I really am off.
The Times headline is incredibly misleading to anyone who isn’t an election anorak.
From their headline it sounds like the election as a whole is neck-and-neck.
Only nerds will realise that in those marginal seats Labour were about 14% ahead in 2005, so neck-and-neck means a 6.7% swing, more than the Tories need to win.
O/T just picked up today for a steal a dvd set entitled “Unspeakable Horror: Three Classic silent movies”: The Hunchback of Notre Dame, Dr jeckyll and Mr Hyde & The cabinet of Dr Caligari.
Then in small letters it says “remastered in Dolby digital sound”
re 223 it’s a survey, you’ll notice if you read this site rather than just posting bunker propaganda that surveys are not always correct. Is the BCS as open as YouGov say with its data tables and how it chooses its sample to have a representative one. I can’t find it and if it exists then surely you with the power of the bunker behind you can find it for me.
245. No, but the day of reakoning is coming.
Not long now.
Tick. Tock.
re 235 well that Sky story is just a downright lie.
251.
You’re better off waving a banner screaming how much you don’t understand crime figures. Then we’d all know where we stand.
228
‘how many immigrants vote though?’
Maybe that’s where Brown’s been very smart with his ‘handouts’ culture plus every ethnic minority group get block handouts for being a minority.
241.
Whatever tonights polls and other nights polls say, I think Andy Cooke’s fundamental point will ring true: The Tories could go into election night 6-7% ahead in the polls and the media will be having a field day with the hung parliament narrative - only to wake up the next morning to a small but workable (40-ish) Tory majority.
“253.The Times headline is incredibly misleading to anyone who isn’t an election anorak.”
OK, Comical Ali, that Tory supportng Times.
The Times illustrates the Populus poll with a picture of a photo finish, two sprinters dipping for the line.
lol.
re 254 BenM where’s the data, rationale? That’s all you need to answer
255
I seem to remember a few days back that only 31% of immigrants were registered to vote. I think the info came from the electoral commision along with other info that huge numbers of 18-24 yr olds were not registerd to vote either.
Someone will no doubt check this, and apologies in advance if I have misstated
Now I really must get some zzzzzzzzz’s
257 - they’ve got a paper to sell. I suspect “Cameron on course for victory” wouldn’t do it.
Hung parliament say the national polls, hung parliament say the marginal polls.
SMELL THAT COFFEE TORIES!!
my auntie in the east midlands told me over coffee and cake
BETTER THE DEVIL YOU KNOW THAN THE ONE YOU DONT
shes going to vote labour as shes not convinced by cameron and his supporting team:(
The marginals poll swing difference is still not quite statistically significant at the usual levels. Although it has to be said, several have not quite come up to the mark and I’ve never seen one in the opposite (pro-Labour direction)!
257. Journalists. What can you do with them eh?
260.
How about;
LABOUR SET TO LOSE 100 MP’s IN ELECTION DISASTER
That might sell a few.
“265.257 - they’ve got a paper to sell. I suspect “Cameron on course for victory” wouldn’t do it.”
Lol, what a traditional conservative paper, to a predominately Tory audience?
I love the smell of desperation. Beautiful
The reporting of polls by the media is getting worse by the day.
First of all, they’re forgetting to remind everyone that the poll doesn’t include the 50 easiest Tory targets from Labour.
The Tories need about 90 gains from Labour altogether. So in addition to the easiest 50 seats, they would need about 40 of the 100 seats featured in this marginal poll.
So they don’t need to win the majority of the 100 seats featured in this poll, which is why Labour can still be 0.6% ahead in them and still the Tories are getting a swing of 6.7% which is larger than the 6.1% they need to win the 90 seats they need from Labour.
260 and others - apparently, when he was looking to buy out Manchester United 10 years ago, Murdoch was believed to have said to somebody high up at the club that if United were running away with the Premiership by March (not unusual back then) he would have instructed Alex Ferguson to rest some players and make it a more competitive league.
Reason behind it was so that Sky could build up the hype towards the end of the season (then obviously United would storm through at the end).
Obviously, he would never do that with the country.
261 Samara, two uncles and three cousins told me over a pint in the pub that
IT’S TIME FOR A CHANGE
they’re going to vote for Cameron, as they’re convinced that Brown’s a bullying weirdo, surrounded by incompetents
265. All the UK papers are tabloids, as Charlie Brooker says.
261. Indeed there are always those who will prefer to vote for the dark side. She likes the ‘bad ‘uns’ then does she? It’ll all end in tears no doubt(it always does) but I suppose it takes all sorts…..
261. The Times headline:
LABOUR SET FOR VICTORY
Labour are set to pull off a huge electoral surprise in May as a new poll of Samara Morgan’s living room indicates a Labour victory. Auntie Morgan has declared “better the devil you know” and will be voting for Mr Brown.
Business Secretary Peter Mandelson told the Times: “The tide has well and truly turned in our favour. Auntie Morgan has taken a close hard look at David Cameron and decided she doesn’t like his moving hair-parting; is it meant to be on the left or the right? We’ve always said, this government will provide good combs for all.”
A Tory insider revealed: “CCHQ is in floods of panic. We’ve set aside shed loads of Ashcroft money on Auntie Morgan’s living room, but the message just isn’t getting through.”
Anyone can write this siht. And no offense to you or any relatives, Samara! Just a demo of how the papers are just making stuff up at the mo.
re 262 that sums it up neatly. Tories very likely to be doing a BIT better in the marginals.
david cameeron is also starting to have the kn^b factor…man on the street no-longer respects him just doesnt listen to him anymore
remember when we winning the north now we are down will london crumble and then the midlands its like an invasion from the north of scotland as the labour support increases
261 samara morgan
How fascinating!
Yesterday, whilst I was out walking, my neighbour’s mother-in-law’s dog’s vet’s sister’s postman’s milkman’s friend told me that he is voting Tory, because there is a thing as society, it’s not just the same thing as the state.
He also mentioned that the “post-bureaucratic age” was all they were talking about down at the Dog and Duck - of course, that was only after a few pints though. Before that, they could talk of nothing else but Richard Thaler’s Nudge theory and the implications for paternalist liberatianism.
Sky paper review on Populus:
Kate Hoey: Big narrowing of the gap. Great concern to Cameron. Still now neck and neck in the marginals. Clearly Ashcroft story has damaged the tories. We’re in for a big battle.
Rosa Prince: Cameron made compromises for Ashcroft. Now marginals funding not working. If they can’t win the marginals, they’re not going to do it. People beginning to scrutinise the tories and they’re not convinced. A real wobble going on with the tories.
Kate Hoey: The tories were so far ahead they weren’t being scrutinised - now they are.
Rosa Prince: Doesn’t feel like the tories have sealed the deal. Doesn’t feel like a time of celebration or optimism like Obama or Blair.
Completely OT
Just had a friend leave, crying, as she today received a proposed bill from the council for ‘works’ and ‘repairs’. Basically ursury.
After doing some research, it seems there’s little that can be done to challenge this theft as it is a council doing, whereas a private landlord isn’t allowed to get away with it.
I’ve advised her that if they don’t adjust the fees significantly, she should stop paying her service charges, mortgage, get made redundant and then the council can pay this when she is repossesed.
Pretty disgraceful this can happen in the 21st century, but then the State is grasping, always will be.
Any better advice appreciated, I’ll read back in the morning when I get up. I’ve heard of LEASE, LVT etc.
269 no she voted for maggie and major in 92
GIN ” You do realise the king of swing the Tories need to get any kind of majority don’t you? ”
The tories need Benny Goodman to be sure of a victory?
:confused:
(young pb’ers probably won’t get the reference - google it!)
272 samara morgan
If it was an invasion from the north of Scotland, it would be an LD invasion.
Smeary Gobble links, spins and lies!
274.
Yeah, cos Obama and Blair were/are great successes
I’d rather be a Thatcher with a nice 70-odd mandate, and change the face of the country, than a twat like Blair with a 200-mandate and no ideas.
273 its idiots like you that kept our party in the opposition for a decade. obnoxious smart-arse.
your parents didnt discipline you enough.
Cam will be worried he simply isn’t sealing the deal, even his wife may consider voting Labour now.
277. Duke Ellington would be more appropriate…
278 stop being pedantic it makes you look an elitist prat
272 - It is heart warming indeed to witness at first hand the spectacular gift of erudition bestowed to Ms. Morgan from 13 years of education, education, education.
Agree with the chorus that what we’re seeing is segment swing rather than national or regional e.g with the LDs losing soft Tories back to Cameron and Iraq rebels back to Labour but with a partially compensating drift as the kulaks head on their long strung out drift along the Lab->LD->Tory->Ukip->BNP spectrum.
What’s interesting about it is betting on individual constituencies could all depend on relative proportions of the different segments of the vote e.g a very safe old labour type seat like Glasgow NE wouldn’t see much of a soft Tory or Iraq effect and the WWC drift wouldn’t outweigh the old Labour majority (with a bit of help from postal votes).
On the other hand the sort of seats where you might see LDs doing surprisingly well is where the WWC vote is of a critical but not overwhelming size and the soft Tory and Iraq segments aren’t that big.
261 Samara Morgan
We might be related.
Do you have uncles called Tomsk and Omsk?
281 samara morgan
Which party is that?
244. Amen. It’s getting tedious now. Fed up of reading the newspapers banging on about how ‘this result would lead to….’ without any appreciation of how FPTP works.
The commentariat are the worst. I’ll never understand how individuals with little understanding of our electoral system are allowed to spout free daily on what one poll result would lead to. There are plenty of individuals on here on both sides of the political divide who are much more rational and considered in their analysis of the polls.
285 - another elitist wannabe
274. There is so much nosense in that reported exchange I don’t know where to start and my life is too short to even bother.
277. LOL!
(*Puts on Canadian accent*)
Another terrrr-ible poll for the Conservatives.
In equally happy news, it looks like as one door closes for George Osborne, another one opens - his appearance on the Rawnsley documentary leaves little doubt that he’s got a very bright future in comic acting. His masterful deadpan delivery of the line “you misunderstand the importance of the Office for Budget Responsibility” is destined be one of the gems of early 21st century British broadcasting.
280- You can legitimately criticize the naive optimism that characterized the elections that brought Blair and Obama to power, but there is a lesson here for the Tories. The Tories won’t win big just by being prophets of doom; they need to sell a positive vision of a better future. It’s simply not enough to tell people they’re damned if they vote Labour and somewhat less damned if they vote Tory.
283 - Ellington didn’t have the nickname of the the King of Swing, what are you on about?
It’s strange how tories pour derision on the notion of uniform swing for national polls but fall back on it for the marginals polls.
I suspect they’re in more trouble than the headline figures suggest.
294. “It don’t mean a thing…”
PLato I’m pretty good on my geography but have never ever heard of a country called Aruba.
I’ve just got my first blog visitor from this place - is it just me that hasn’t heard of it before?
Yes you are - it’s famous. It became famous when it became separate from the Netherlands Antilles. It was originally scheduled to become independent completely in 1996 (IIRC) until it changed its mind.
Batch File Adam Smith???? Who the F*** is that?
Er, only about the second most famous economic philosopher in the history of the world.
Amazed I’m beginning to think that there’s a case for banning polls during election campaigns. People should be able to make up their minds on the issues.
No way! Opinion polls in an election campaign are a vital and necessary ingredient in improving and maximising the efficiency of a vote in a FPTP system. If you want to ban opinion polls (something which is in any case unenforceable), make them redundant by introducing a proper sensible voting system which doesn’t rely on guesswork.
The Screaming Eagle Is it me, or do parents become a bit demented the moment they become grandparents?
Grandchildren are grandparents’ reward for not murdering their teenagers.
—————————————-
Anecdote alert:
Went to see Tony Benn today (speech and question session).
There were about 150ish in the audience, and about 12 or 15 questions. It was noticeable (by me, anyway) that five of the questions were asked by prospective parliamentary candidates (five different parties).
But anyway, I was chatting in the pub afterwards with a couple of vaguely centre-lefty acquaintances (one I know well, one not so well). They expressed vague concern and contempt about David Cameron (they don’t know what he stands for or what his policies are), and vague approval for Gordon Brown (he’s “passionate” and “cares” about the country, but he’s “unlucky” in not coming across well). But the main sense in which they were approving of Brown was in comparing him favourably with Tony Blair, who was “smarmy”, “couldn’t be trusted” and only cared about spin.
I was slightly reassured that the one I didn’t know very well was obviously very dim because she had absorbed, swallowed, and unquestioningly regurgitated conspiracy theories about the Moon landings being fake, didn’t know where “The Falklands” were, and repeatedly referred to Princess Diana as “Lady Di”.
Smeary Gobble - Spins. links and lies (again)
293. The Tories aren’t going to “win big” whatever they do. The swing they need is too big to be able to do better than a small, but workable majority.
I agree they do need to offer some light to the shade, but we have to be realistic and a landslide or a large majority is not an option.
If anyone uses the phrase ’seal the deal’ can we please banish them into the pit of hell? What a banal, crass phrase, though sadly one of many used by a certain type of politico….
295 Gabble
I suspect they’re in more trouble than the headline figures suggest.
Your suspicions have always been suspect.
It’s pretty incredible that some Labour supporters are taking comfort from a marginals poll which shows a swing to the Tories of nearly 7% and implies about 100 Labour seats going directly over to the Conservatives. That’s more than a quarter of Labour’s total seats being lost.
290 - You sound like Sarah Palin, whinging about the elites out to get her…
“296.294. “It don’t mean a thing…””
Nope - still meaningless…
295. Gab’s change HOPE for SUSPECT.
Evening all.
Two polls tonight, from YouGov and Poplulus, showing little change from what we are used to; Labour have caught up enough to make a hung parliament a distinct possibility, assuming nothing changes; the LibDems currently are making no progress; Ashcroft is having no effect; the Conservative share is stable at just under 40%.
So no surprises there.
The budget is still to come, of course, and Labour at some point might have to start to consider, and let the public know, what on earth they would do if they were to form the next government. No doubt that gives them nightmares.
Meanwhile we have a new pollster, Opinium, broadly in line with the others. It will be interesting to watch how their weekly tracker develops; if, as appears to be the case, it is the same panel of 2000 people being asked their opinion each week, then it is probably best regarded as a running opinion poll on how the parties are doing.
Oh, and PBers are getting very excited. Nothing new there either.
297. “Yes you are - it’s famous. It became famous when it became separate from the Netherlands Antilles. It was originally scheduled to become independent completely in 1996 (IIRC) until it changed its mind.”
Even more importantly, it’s the original homeland of Dave Benton, winner of the 2001 Eurovision Song Contest for Estonia.
Populus leading SkyNews:
Ashcroft effect - Labour and tories neck and neck in key marginals after row over tax.
I note from the BBC and after earlier discussions on this site that the UUP are planning to vote against the devolution of Justice Powers in Northern Ireland tomorrow.
299- You’re right that it’s probably too late for the Tories to score a large majority, but it’s not too late to avoid a slide that will see them looking in from the outside again. But regardless of the final numbers, it remains the case that the Tories need to find their inner optimist. It is concerning that perhaps the Tories have spent so much time dwelling on the bad side of everything Labour has done that they’re not seeing the positive possibilities anymore. People just don’t want to vote for cynical pessimists.
308 - Sky News giving the wrong impression about the poll.
Oh well, makes the election more interesting I suppose!
Jon Craig:
tories could be suffering from Ashcroft backlash. Marginals do not include 50 easiest seats. tories saying poll is not scientific and possibly flawed.
tories are hurting, feeling the pain. Couple of other polls suugesting hung parliament.
Shows real shrinking of tory leads. Latest polls, after Ashcroft, heading for hung parliament, according to the polls.
311. It also means journo’s will have to eat ever increasing amounts of humble pie on May 7th (again) when the Tories suddenly end up with a 20 seat majority - That will be fun.
310. “But regardless of the final numbers, it remains the case that the Tories need to find their inner optimist.”
Bill Cash - your time has come.
284 samara morgan
Oh dear. I’m upset.
The best Labour coverage for months combined with the worst coverage for the Tories and yet Labour are still set to lose at least 100 seats to the Tories. Considering this and the fact the 2005 Labour lead in marginals 50-150 of 14% has now evaporated I’d say that’s pretty good news for team Cameron. Once the spotlight gets back onto the frankly appalling 13 year record of this government I’d say Labour are pretty stuffed.
304.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qDQpZT3GhDg
308 Gabble
The psephological illiteracy of journalists (especially newsreaders) is astonishing and pretty unforgivable.
Nevertheless, you have the germ of a point. The media narrative is definitely good for Labour activists; I wonder whether it is equally true of the electorate more generally?
You might well be right; the misleading pro-Labour spin on the reporting of polls might help Labour. I’m not sure though.
Rosa Prince who once predicted the sacking of a Shadow Cabinet member who wasn’t even in the Shadow Cabinet! She has the analytical skills of an ironing board
I’d be interested to know whether there are any Labour supporters on here at the moment who are genuinely taking comfort from the Populus marginals poll? A poll which shows seats down to majorities of 13.3% being lost - 97 of them - doesn’t sound great to me.
311. It’s incredible that we’ve got to the position where the Tories have allied themselves to the only one of the main NI parties that is now anti-agreement.
261
Samara,the taxi driver this afternoon told me that he and his family were going to break the habit of a lifetime and vote Tory.
320. It is very much a hung parliament poll, though, by the sounds of it?
321 James Kelly
Not that surprising. It matches their long term historic role in NI.
261
Samara,forgot to mention it was not the same taxi driver that Roger uses.
325 JohnF
Was he a driver for “Elite Cabs”?
Saw the Rawnsley Despatches programme tonight, was actually quite good and a helluva lot more positive for team Blue than even the very obvious editing intended. It was actually quite a shame really, I was quite surprised how open and honest the Tory contributors were. Mandelson was Mandelson, but Vince Cable, oh dear. Also thought the biggest winner outside Cameron was George Osborne and Ed Vaizey. And seeing his comments about Samantha Cameron in context made the MoS heaedline seem even more ludicrous. But all grist to the mill in the run up to the GE. But I doubt that Team Cameron will be unhappy at the result.
Though it remains part of the realm of the House of Orange, Aruba refused to remain in the Netherlands Antilles. Why? Because they’re still upset that the blue liquor was named for Curacao!
Note that another part of the NA is now breaking away, namely Saba (population under 2k) because of it’s own grievances against Curacanian domination. Late last year the sent an angry letter of protest - written in English - the (now fallen) Dutch Prime Minister. Upshot is that Saba will become an integral part of the Neatherlands proper. Thus the summit of Saba will become the highest point in that country! Though integrating Saba into the Dutchy tramline system may prove difficult . . .
The official target for a majority is of course 326, but Sinn Fein don’t take their seats in parliament. If they win 5 seats again and continue to stay away from Westminster, that would reduce the practical number of seats needed for a majority to 323.
Also, the Unionists probably wouldn’t vote against a party which had won a significant lead in the popular vote, and if the Tories are on about 306 seats they would be ahead by at least 5% in the popular vote. That would reduce the practical number of seats needed to 318 seats. The 3 SDLP members would vote with Labour as they normally do.
This poll would put the Tories on 306 seats, just with gains from Labour.
So they’d need another 12 gains from LDs/SNP/KHHC to have a practical majority in the Commons.
328 Sea Shanty Irish
I thought that the timetable for transition to being part of the Netherlands had been put on indefinite hold.
311.AndyJS, I am quite happy for Jon Craig&Co to spin that line, hung Parliament or Labour hanging on will increase turnout and give the Tories more switchers or borrowed votes where it matters in the marginals. All to play for, we need the opposite of what happened in 1997 to even get a sniff of a working majority. As a political journalist, Jon Craig has either not bothered to learn a bit more about polling, I recommend PB.com by the way, I am a constant learner on here.
Or Jon Craig is being disingenuous in his reporting. Time will tell.
329. On this sort of swing you could probably expect the Tories to eat into a handful of seats from 150-170 on larger swings than UNS suggests couldn’t you?
332. Of course that would be off set by the Tories probably failing to take some of the seats in the 130-150 category.
331:
Although the polling companies have done a lot of hard work to try and get rid of the Labour bias present in their methods, I personally would be very surprised if there still isn’t a slight bias in favour of Labour of 1-2%.
So if a marginals poll like this is showing a swing of 6.7%, I would personally put the swing at about 7-8% in reality. We only have a few weeks to find out if that’s true of course!
329. Oh, I don’t doubt that on the basis of this poll the Tories have still got every chance of being the largest single party and of forming a government. But given where they were just a few weeks ago, they must be pretty devastated by those figures. Relying on the DUP for a practical majority is not a healthy situation for any incoming government.
335. I was expecting the polls to narrow. Rod “swingback” theory was/is sound. Its just that I didn’t think it would be enough to prevent a small Conservative majority and I still don’t and I think the polls are very much pointing that way myself.
335 - I don’t really think it was ever realistic to expect any political party to win more than about 120-130 seats in a single election. In 1997 Blair managed to make 146 gains but of course that was after 18 years of Tory government.
It’s a bit much to describe gaining almost 100 seats as a devastating result!
334.Andy, totally agree. But the actual campaign GE is going to be a hell of a lot more important than the last two GE’s as well, we have a big enough number of voters who are still yet undecided, and that is when those voters are going to be reached by the various parties.
331. “All to play for, we need the opposite of what happened in 1997 to even get a sniff of a working majority.”
Christina, get that champagne ready for the moment when Labour take a ten-point lead in the polls. Only then will we know a Tory victory is completely certain - but until that day comes, complacency remains a real threat.
And it was worse a few months ago - Cameron must have been despairing at those seventeen-point Tory leads. No wonder he’s perked up a bit now.
337. “It’s a bit much to describe gaining almost 100 seats as a devastating result!”
When you’re starting from a lower baseline figure than Michael Foot had in 1983 and your declared aim (not to mention expectation) is outright victory, it’s pretty close to devastating.
332.GIN, I have always believed that there will be surprise holds, losses and gains for all the main parties in this GE, that is where the incumbency factor will gain some traction. But, I think that it will be more of an individual MP positive vs PPC negative. I don’t believe the Libdems own this political positive, and they are now at such a level of MP’s where the majority are not household names that it will not save some of their seats.
I’m also puzzled by the Conservative strategy of uniting with the Ulster Unionist Party.
It’s easy to see what UUP gets (lifeline & cashflow) BUT what’s in it for the Tories?
Unless I’m missing something, UUP will be lucky to have one seat in the new House of Commons. Whereas downside would appear to be:
1. Conservatives alienating non-UUP unionists; now this might be OK with respect to True Ulster Voice, but what’s the point of pissing off the Democratic Unionist Party, esp. when Team Blue might just need their votes in the next Parliament?
2. Tories assuming responsiblity for UUP positions. with result that they become a target for American politicos - Republicans as well as Democrats - concerned to keep the NI peace process on the rails.
So what am I missing here? Maybe someone in Conservative head office thinks that they’ll win votes in Great Britain by nailing the Blue Flag to the Orange flagpoll? BUT even that appears dubious. Indeed, would think they risk losing more by irritating voters of Irish Catholic heritage in key marginals than they stand to gain elsewhere.
335. Could be an interesting polling question.
Which do you prefer as the next government.
Con/UUP/DUP* or
Lab/LD
* bearing in mind it includes this guy…
http://video.google.co.uk/videoplay?docid=5186948861019719623&ei=dpiVS57fEtiT-Ab_y8TmAg&q=mccrea+william+hymn&hl=en&view=1&client=firefox-a#docid=4140370807272290860
341 ChristinaD
Though in some seats, the degree of troughing by the incumbent may produce a contrary tendency.
330, oldnat - you could be right, last time I looked was a month or so ago. Of course you know how flighty those Dutchies can be!
340 - the Michael Foot comparison is correct in seats of course, but in votes the Tories only lost by 3% last time compared to Foot losing by 14% in 1983. That bias in the electoral system is quite likely to evaporate to a significant degree, at least according to Andy Cooke.
317 - Yes I know the song Rod, I thought you were using it to say that there will be be no swing which isn’t exactly credible, anyway this is pointlessly extending something that isn’t worth it.
Being a subscriber to Mike’s ‘golden rule’, I await with interest the results of the next Angus Reid poll. I think that we can safely disregard the rest.
346. I have my doubts about any major correction in the bias of the electoral system, but if it’s true, it’s all the more reason why the Tories would be bitterly disappointed with the outcome projected by this poll.
344.Oldnat, have you got the numbers mixed up? Cannot see anything in my post that would have contradicted that view?
I think that you just have to look at the sheer level of MP’s standing down at this GE to understand how damaging the expenses scandal was. Most of the worst offenders are already going.
348. But I think even Mike concedes that Angus Reid is likely to be understating Labour, at least to some extent!
I haven’t decided who to vote for yet. My comments probably sound like they’re coming from a Tory as a result of the fact that I do think the polls are still biased in favour of Labour and I think we should watch out for that. I am considering voting Tory of course.
348.joe, you can’t simple disregard the other pollsters though. They all add to the general picture with regard voting trends.
350 ChristinaD
I’m in broad agreement with you. With the general contempt for the political class, decent incumbents will have an advantage. However, the opposite is true for the worst of the troughers who haven’t stood down.
It’ll be interesting to see how Darling’s serial flipping plays at a local level. These are factors which won’t show up in the polls.
352.AndyJS, for what is worth, I hadn’t got you down as a supporter of any particular party. You are doing sterling work with the on the night counts tally by the way.
Crime stats
Dear Kulak,
You can import hundreds of thousands of young men from some of the most violent, backward and war-torn parts of the planet and this will *not* increase violent crime, especially rape, in the areas where those young men are concentrated.
Now shut up and bleed quietly.
Signed
The political-media class.
My personal view for the past year or so has been that Conservatives will win the next election, with a majority of under 50. That the big lead they had until recently would narrow (swingback, Labour homecoming, Tories being Tories)) but not to the vanishing point (voter fatigue, recession, time for change. Labour being Labour).
Actually this just about the best scenario for Labour. A soft (but not TOO soft) landing.
Methinks a hung parliament would be too much of a good thing for NPMP and Co. Because IF David Cameron was the next PM in this situation, then think dynamic might be similar to that of 1970, when Labour squeeked out a narrow win against Conservatives in February, then went on to win in October. And believe a continuation of Labour regime post May 2010 would be even more fraught with peril for Labour.
Every
354.oldnat, totally agree with you on this, that is why I expect some MP’s with very marginal seats to hang on, yet those higher up the majority to lose. Expenses will be one factor, but I think that it will be one issue among many. I am kind of known in my little patch due to my leafleting etc, it was the Euro’s last year where the anger was really palpable. Also think that local news coverage will have played a big part too. Take up here in the North East, the P&J was the dog that didn’t bark about local MP’s, lots of hot air about the general expenses scandal and the headline makers who live a few hundred miles away though.
358.Oops, yet those higher up the majority tree.
Nytol
Andy JS: On its own it’s not a great poll for Labour. But there are three issues:
1. The lead on high turnout.
2. The lead on low turnout
3. Any special marginals effects.
Broadly speaking, YouGov/BPIX tend to show 1, ICM/Populus tend to show 2 and marginals polls have tended to show a significant Tory bonus. Since YouGov is down to levels where most of us have a shot at retaining our seats, a poll showing only a limited marginals effect is welcome.
I’ve thought for some time that NOM is the most likely. With the Budget and debates as big events still to come, it’s really hard to predict at this point, though - both Tory and Labour majorities look possible and it may come down to one blunder in the debates. The betting markets do look askew as they’re still showing a heavy leaning to an overall Tory majority of 40 or so, which doesn’t seem really borne out by any of the polls except Angus Reid. Considering the risks of spreads, I suspect there’s a shift coming.
256, MJ - is this a reference to British soccer hooligans, drinking tourists, etc terrorizing large swaths of lanscape from the Algarve to Estonia?
Jon Craig on Sky pointing out that the populus doesn’t include first 50 seats or Libdem marginals. Anyway, nothing like a few polls coming at once to get everyone wound up.
The Hansard Society have just published their annual survey of attitudes to Parliament and MPs. Surprisingly, there’s not much change in the level of people who think well of MPs (but it started low, and is still around 25%), though a moderate jump of 8% in those who think badly of them. As usual people rate their own MP much more highly than MPs in general, though only 40-odd% know who they are.
342. Its very simple. The UUP and the Tories fit comparatively, if not brilliantly, well.
They are bonded by a unionist belief and the UUP have long had a fairly large Tory wing. Whilst the Tory/UU link up has some serious faults the basic thrust isn’t such a bad idea. There is very little doubt that there is a sizeable centre right population, basically unionist, there to be tapped that currently sits between the UUP and the Robinson/Foster/Donaldson wing of the DUP.
Once you lose some of the sectarian baggage you can pull in some votes from across the religious communities..but lets not kid ourselves, the biggest element is the centre-right unionist bloc. Its also a perfectly legitimate grouping despite what many an ignorant f**kwit across the water would like to think.
People tend to forget this is a part of the UK as recognised by the Irish government itself and apparently by nationalist parties in the Good Friday Agreement. The Tories are no less an honest broker here than Labour who refused to even organise here until they were practically dragged through the courts.
One of Labour’s excuses, they had a sister party, the nationalist SDLP…who then is playing with the fire of sectarian politics?
What do Labour and the SDLP have in common for example? Nothing but nationalism. The SDLP long lost their social democratic tag when Hume triumphed over the likes of Gerry Fitt, a man who really knew how to get working people’s votes, and piss off extremists on both sides. Fitt was a man who really put his life on the line in a way that a comparative pygmy like Hume never did. Sure Gerry was a nationalist and earlier on certainly mixed with a few odd one’s but he had bigger fish to fry, like caring about the working man and woman in a craphole location like West Belfast.
I’m no socialist but that man got above the nonsense to understand that the bricks and mortar stuff mattered much more. He wanted the SDLP to be a force that had at least some unifying capacity across the communities. Once the SDLP under Hume moved it towards straightforward uncomplicated nationalism and a pure sectarian vote getting organisation, Fitt’s place was as good as gone.
For all his faults the man was a hero and there have been few like him in Northern Ireland politics.
360.Nytol oldnat.
361.”I’ve thought for some time that NOM is the most likely.”
NickP, I have to disagree with that view, and no, I am not assuming an automatic Conservative win when I say that. I also think that the whole GE campaign will be important, and you are going to be wrong if you think that it may come down to one blunder in the debates as well. John Prescott punched a protester and Blair was harangued outside a hospital, zero impact on the outcome of those elections. David Davis beat Cameron in that QT debate, yet despite being the older more experienced politician, Cameron went on to win a decisive victory in the Tory leadership contest. Its the whole picture, the campaigns, the leaders and the issues and the policies that will decide this election.
Take the debates in particular, that is where Cameron is most dangerous and underestimated right now. Everyone assumes that Clegg is going to automatically be the winner by simple virtue of being on the platform. Brown just has to perform better than low expectations and he is a winner vs Cameron being under par and he is the net loser. Time and again with Cameron, its not a winning the sound bite or put down which helps him, Brown could win the debates and Cameron will come through because he comes across as the more genuine politician. That is his biggest plus. If he is nervous, eager or angry, you see that and it doesn’t harm him because its seen as genuine. Brown is a Davis style plodder.
367 - it’s an interesting view, Christina - genuinely hard to be sure, IMO.
Meanwhile, looking at Betfair, there’s a boring banker - party leaders at the GE. You can still get £1000 at 1.04 (and a bit of 1.05) on it being Cameron and Brown, which equates to 24-30% annual interest - unless one of them falls under a bus, there certainly won’t be a change now. I don’t have £1000 lying around that I want to use for this, but it’s a fairly certain 40 quid.
“Violent attacks are estimated to be 44 per cent higher than they were in 1998 after research on the way police record them allowed comparisons for the first time.”
Hope the BBC will be reporting this having previously said that violent crime is down.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/lawandorder/7400372/True-scale-of-violent-crime-rise-revealed.html
365. “What do Labour and the SDLP have in common for example? Nothing but nationalism.”
I can’t see how they even have that in common. Maybe there’s still some theoretical Labour policy for “unity through consent” but no frontbencher has even gone through the motions of arguing the case for it since Kevin McNamara was replaced by Mo Mowlam in the mid-90s.
371. So why did Labour have be dragged through all kinds of process to get them to agree to organise here?
What was their big issue?
368.NickP, its maybe an interesting view, but the Davis vs Cameron contest back in 2005 is an interesting parallel with the current situation with regard Brown vs Cameron. Davis was the old hand that had been around the Westminster streets for years, he had built up his support base on the back of his time in the Whip’s Office, his lieutenants were probable more of a Brownite nature than that of the Cameroon’s too.
But after all these years of being in front-line politics as Chancellor and then PM, it was Brown who had to do the Piers for tears programme to show he was a real politician. Thatcher, Major, Blair never needed to do this kind of programme after two years in the big job, their public persona/brand was already ingrained and a major plus for them by that time, unlike Brown, who found his entirely negative.
All those years of running away from the negative headline, never being a Cabinet team player, it all added to an air of mystery. Never doing the hard interviews, waiting for about a week for that all important focus group polling to give him his verdict on a plate, nothing as decisive or leadership building other than his well prepared and plotted annual set piece budget that was full of rhetoric and hidden nasties that took days to unravel had finally taken their toll. All the bullying and briefing was being done by others off radar.
After all these years, Brown had yet to define himself as a politician with human traits or any nailed on genuine characteristics. Thatcher had Dennis, Major had Norma, Blair had Cherie, again they just naturally built up their own identity or we applied a bit of British humour to the whole Mr&Mrs show positive or negative.
But like Gordon Brown, Sarah Brown is turning into her own PR cottage industry to deliberately build up a mythical status on par with Michelle Obama. Its contrived and unreal, she just appears on the front page with Tess Daly, no headline, just a puff piece with her meeting the celebrity who’s who. Cherie Blair must get really pi**ed off, she didn’t push that hard to stand by her man and yet she got totally mauled by the media.
Dennis, Norma, Ffion, Sandra or Samantha have never done that outside the election campaign’s, and yet they have still been given a high profile as well. But Sarah is really becoming our first really cynically manufactured PM spouse, and again, its because she has to because her husband isn’t cutting the mustard on his own as a our PM. This is the biggest failure of New Labour. Do I want a PM because his wife is really good friends with the celebrity luvvies like Naomi Campbell or Fiona Phillip’s?
372. Yokel, I’m just guessing but I’d imagine that most proponents of Labour organising in NI have been unionists? Certainly if they ever got to the point of actually standing candidates, it’s hard to see how they could credibly maintain their de facto position of neutrality between unionism and nationalism.
The other point of course is that organising in NI treads on the toes of their PES sister party - not an absolute bar, but certainly a huge factor, given the high esteem the SDLP seem to be held in throughout much of Labour’s ranks.
Here are some examples of the kinds of seats within the 100 marginal seats covered by the marginals poll, two at each end and one in the middle:
Target number 50 from Labour:
GREAT YARMOUTH: Lab – 45.6%, Con – 38.2%
Target number 100 from Labour:
BATLEY & SPEN: Lab – 45.3%, Con – 31.7%
Target number 149 from Labour:
WALSALL SOUTh: Lab – 49.2%, Con – 28.4%
The shares in the media seat, Batley & Spen, are almost the same as the overall shares for these 100 seats, which are: Lab - 45.3%, Con - 31.4%.
These seats exclude the 301 seats which are not Labour seats and also the 50 most marginal Labour seats, so the poll excludes the 351 most non-Labour seats. That’s why the Labour share is 45.3% in these seats compared to 36.2% overall.
374. Which somewhat proves my point that the idea of the Tories being in some kind of league with the Ulster Unionists is no different than Labour effectively being in league with the SDLP in practice.
376. Hardly. Labour leaders don’t actively campaign for the SDLP, they don’t share its Irish nationalism, they don’t fight under a joint name, or under a joint manifesto…in fact it’s hard to see in what sense the two parties are united, other than the nominal fact that the SDLP “take the Labour whip”, which is utterly meaningless given that there’s no conceivable sanction available should their MPs breach the whip, which they’ve done countless times.
Yes, they are sister parties in the same European grouping, but then Labour and the PS of France are also sister parties. It amounts to much the same thing - pretty much nothing.
By contrast, Cameron will actively campaign for UUP candidates, he does share that party’s unionism, the two parties will fight under a joint name and a joint manifesto, etc, etc. The difference could hardly be more stark.
The SDLP sit on the Labour benches and usually vote with Labour as far as I know.
378. Absolutely, Andy - as I noted above, they nominally take the Labour whip.
377/387.
Entirely voluntarily. Labour have neither sought nor offered anything in return for their allegiance.
The Tories on the other hand…
369. I wouldn’t want to risk a thousand pounds to win forty on that bet NPMP.
I rate the chances of some emergemcy causing the election to be postponed by a few months to be greater than 4%.
Another foot and mouth outbreak caused by a leak of the virus from a Govt institution.
A major terrorist attack in the UK, not even necessarily by by foreign terrorists. It could be by someone doing it for political purposes, in order to both delay and influence the imminent GE.
And, of course, there is also that bus to watch out for.
380.”Entirely voluntarily. Labour have neither sought nor offered anything in return for their allegiance.
The Tories on the other hand…”
Rod, of course Brown has never made any deals with a party from NI in recent years when his arse has been up against the wall in a major vote in the HoC’s. So shouldn’t that be Brown on the other hand….