Andy Cooke on the UNS - Part 3
March 10th, 2010
UNS - Exploring the Distortions
I’ve put together a short series on UNS – what it is, what’s its track record, and what levels of distortion have occurred in recent elections. This is part three of three.
It is an article of faith that the electoral system is inherently biased against the Conservative Party. Certainly a UNS calculation from the position as of the 2005 General Election is very harsh on the prospects of the Tories. But is this built in? Even with a marginal boost unwind and tactical vote unwind, is there a residual tilt to Labour?
Let’s rephrase that. Was there a residual tilt to Labour?
In the run up to 1987, we can explore the distortion from a “level playing field” by simply invoking UNS from 1983 and plumping for a level score. We can see what lead each of the Big Two would need for a majority. To do this, I’ve held the Alliance/Lib Dem score at what they actually got, and varied the “Big Two” to keep their total share between them at what they actually got.
At level pegging, on 37.4% for Labour and Tories and the Alliance at their actual 23.1%, UNS says that this should have happened:
| Con Seats | Lab Seats | Alliance Seats | Advantage |
| 307 | 297 | 22 | 10 to Conservatives |
This is what UNS says should have been the requirements for various points of interest:
| Conservative majority | Con lead 3.2% |
| Labour majority | Lab lead 5.2% |
| Level on seats | Lab lead 0.7% |
The pro-Labour distortion is definitely not apparent. Indeed, the Tories have a distinct (albeit slight) advantage. The BES surveys from this time show a slight potential tactical vote against Labour, supporting the distortion, and it’s undeniable that Michael Foot appealed more to the Labour core than the floating voter – and it’s the outcome of 1983 that created this distortion.
In 1992, we invoke UNS from 1987 and carry out the same exploration. At level pegging (Con and Lab both on 39% and the Lib Dems on 18.3%), this is what should have happened:
| Con Seats | Lab Seats | Lib Dem Seats | Advantage |
| 313 | 299 | 15 | 14 to Conservatives |
This is what UNS says should have been the requirements for various points of interest:
| Conservative majority | Con lead 2.6% |
| Labour majority | Lab lead 4.2% |
| Level on seats | Lab lead 1.0% |
After 1987, the pro-Tory advantage increased – especially as the Lib Dem share dwindled. However, when push came to shove, the 14 seat advantage proved more than illusory – and the distortion not just unwound but wound up to Labour sharply – as can be seen when we look at the electoral landscape post 1992 – on the runup to 1997. Remember that the landscape used for UNS calculations for the next election is what actually was the case for the previous election.
From UNS from 1992, a dead heat in the polls should have given (with Con and Lab both on 37.9% and the Lib Dems on 17.2%:
| Con Seats | Lab Seats | Lib Dem Seats | Advantage |
| 287 | 324 | 23 | 37 to Labour |
Remember that 14 seat advantage that the Tories should have had? Well, at the 1992 election, it actually turned into a 37 seat advantage to Labour.
| Conservative majority | Con lead 6.3% |
| Labour majority | Lab lead 0.9% |
| Level on seats | Con lead 2.6% |
The same lead that would have given them a majority (under UNS) one election earlier would be not quite enough to draw level on seats in a hung Parliament. However, as events turned out, that 37 seat advantage to Labour (from a 14 seat advantage to the Conservatives one election earlier) proved to be eclipsed by the magnitude of what did happen. As can be seen when we look at what UNS from 1997 to 2001 says should have happened in a dead heat (37.4% each):
| Con Seats | Lab Seats | Lib Dem Seats | Advantage |
| 252 | 340 | 37 | 88 to Labour |
Blair outdid UNS rather handily in 1997, obviously. He’d have received a majority of 21 when level in the polls.
| Conservative majority | Con lead 10.6% |
| Labour majority | Con lead 1.6% |
| Level on seats | Con lead 6.7% |
This is where the distortions really became embedded. And just to add insult to injury, the distortions increased rather than decreased. Those who had lent Blair their vote tactically and those marginal voters who had decided to “give him a chance” could have been viewed as a provisional boost. That 88 seat distortion was a huge pressure on the electoral fabric – and the Labour first term did nothing to make them fear they’d made a mistake.
The 2005 landscape was fashioned in 2001. On UNS from 2001, a dead heat (at 34.7% each) would have given:
| Con Seats | Lab Seats | Lib Dem Seats | Advantage |
| 207 | 351 | 59 | 144 to Labour |
A dead heat should have given a Labour majority of 56. A 144 seat distortion advantage. Howard had no chance of winning a majority, realistically.
| Conservative majority | Con lead 12.6% |
| Labour majority | Con lead 2.8% |
| Level on seats | Con lead 7.9% |
And now? According to UNS, with the landscape that emerged from the 2005 election, a dead heat (assuming the Lib Dems on 20% and the Conservatives and Labour at 35% each):
| Con Seats | Lab Seats | Lib Dem Seats | Advantage |
| 241 | 330 | 49 | 89 to Labour |
Pretty much pegged back to the distortion that came out of the 1997 election. The milestone requirements bear that out:
| Conservative majority | Con lead 10.2% |
| Labour majority | Con lead 0.4% |
| Level on seats | Con lead 6.8% |
So in one handy table, let’s put up the changes in distortion from UNS. What was the seat advantage coming in to each election, and what did UNS say were the thresholds needed? And how did they change?
| Seat advantage | Con majority | Lab majority | Level on seats | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1987 | Con 10 | Con lead 3.2% | Lab lead 5.2% | Lab lead 0.7% |
| 1992 | Con 14 | Con lead 2.6% | Lab lead 4.2% | Lab lead 1.0% |
| 1997 | Lab 37 | Con lead 6.3% | Lab lead 0.9% | Con lead 2.6% |
| 2001 | Lab 88 | Con lead 10.6% | Con lead 1.6% | Con lead 6.7% |
| 2005 | Lab 144 | Con lead 12.6% | Con lead 2.8% | Con lead 7.9% |
| 2010 | Lab 89 | Con lead 10.2% | Con lead 0.4% | Con lead 6.8% |
Take a look at that variation. Bear it in mind when you use a UNS calculator. Read across from each election – that is what UNS said should be the case going in. The line below (the landscape seen in hindsight after the actual election was fought becomes that forecast for the next election) is what it actually was.
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First?
Cameron tour de force, very supportive audience. I’m surprised, even Cameron seems surprised.
Have you ever had a mortgage.
Dave “I’ve got one now”
On your main home?
“no, I paid that one off”
Top answer Dave.
Well…that couldn’t have gone better for Cameron, I do hope both he and Brown will now submit themselves to Paxman.
Cameron did an excellent turn - lots of applause - good show and no particularly fawning questions.
Is it true this gets a huge audience?
Andy, a brilliant article.
On Cameron: only really new info - SamCam will play a big role in the election campaign.
Another fascinating article, Andy. Much food for thought there.
Excellent article again Andy. Extremely informative……
Thanks Andy.
Never realised what Howard was up against till now. Astonishing really.
7 - At least that will shut up the Sarah Brown baiters on here.
“Whoever wins, Britain will have a hung parliament”
http://www.spiked-online.com/index.php/site/article/8296/
But remember, size isn’t everything – it’s what you do with what you have got. Whether or not a government is strong and effective has never simply been a matter of the numbers of MPs the ruling party commands. History shows that large parliamentary majorities can be useless, and that coalition or minority governments can do the business. It all depends on the political will and clarity of those in office, and the balance of political forces outside parliament – the degree of public opposition to, or support for, the government.
By these standards, it ought to be clear that the UK is set for a weak and ineffectual government after the election, whatever the precise make-up of parliament may be and whether we have a majority, minority or coalition in power. The parties are all in a dire state, lacking political vision or practical measures to tackle the crisis. This means that in practice, whatever the results, we are likely to be left with a politically ‘hung’ parliament where nobody has the authority or capacity to rule.
It is very rare for a UK election not to produce a parliamentary majority. The only occasions in modern history were in 1929 and February 1974. No doubt this helps explain why the idea is viewed with such consternation by many. However, in many other countries which use a form of proportional representation to choose a government, outright one-party majorities are rare and coalition governments are the norm. How effective or stable those coalitions prove depends not just on numbers, but on the political climate in which they operate. The experience of coalition governments has thus been very different in, say, a relatively strong state such as Germany and a fragile one such as Italy.
So if we unwind to something like the 1997 figures, the Tories need around a 6 point lead for a majority. It is going to be mighty close.
Read across from each election – that is what UNS said should be the case going in. The line below (the landscape seen in hindsight after the actual election was fought becomes that forecast for the next election) is what it actually was.
Is it me?
Superb article Andy
*APPLAUSE*
What Britain needs now is a PR system. Whether it’s AV, STV, ’straight PR’, whatever it doesn’t matter but we can’t carry on like this.
11 - it’s undeniable that Michael Foot appealed more to the Labour core than the floating voter – and it’s the outcome of 1983 that created this distortion.
And Hague was even worse at turning out Tory voters than Foot was Labour, so the distortion Howard faced was massive.
William Hague 1997-2001 was the worst period in the Conservative Party’s history.
Great article Andy, well set out for psephology 101 students like myself
Thanks for all the time you spend on this stuff.
@3 - don’t be so bitter tim, he was good and you know it. The applause, when it came, was spontaneous and there were no collective sharp intakes of breath. Notice how he explained why he wasn’t further ahead in the polls.. down to recession, general trust in politicians and expenses.. spot on.
Are you taking account of boundary changes in 1997 and 2005, Andy?
Andy - What about Boundary Changes? Are you including those? Weren’t there significant boundary changes between 92 and 97?
13 Ah spiked-online - previously known as Living Marxism
17. “What Britain needs now is a PR system. Whether it’s AV, STV, ’straight PR’, whatever it doesn’t matter but we can’t carry on like this.”
Britain certainly needs PR, but it does matter if it’s AV, for the simple reason that AV isn’t PR.
12.Why should Sarah Brown be above any criticism when she has pushed herself so much into the limelight as a PM’s political consort?
Its been an obvious and very clear strategical political move for many months now in preparation for this GE, so therefore its not above comment. Samantha Cameron is going to go on the campaign trail for a GE like many other political leaders spouses have done in the past.
My mind is blown by this article. I need a cold wet towel to understand its implications fully. I think that it is boiling down to saying that uniform national swing is a rule of thumb, not a rule of law.
One thing I don’t understand is how demographics interplay with this. I understood that Labour tends to get an electoral advantage because Labour seats tended to hollow out as voters moved out. Surely this forms part of the general trend from Tories to Labour, as well as any element of tactical voting?
Very persuasive Andy, might turn out to be the poster of the year.
Britain “needs” PR like a hole in the head.
We need an election, not a change in the voting system.
25 antifrank - I think it’s a bit more than just saying UNS is a rule of thumb, although that is of course a given. What Andy seems to be saying is that there is a systematic error in UNS which ebbs and flows with the politics.
You might almost call it ’swingback’
Cameron softball interview with a gardener, Brown softball interview with BBC political editor.
Could one of you who thinks this is a brilliant article explain it to me ? Please.
I apologise for going off topic, particularly given the excellent article but a quick though about the General Election date - again.
Are we writing June off too readily? I ask because of the following facts:
1. The Budget will not be delivered until March 24.
2. A May 6 election requires a dissolution on April 12.
3. The Budget must be enacted before the dissolution, else the government won’t be able to collect most taxes.
4. It is usual for parliament to be in recess for the two weeks either side of Easter (though the recess dates for both Houses are still haven’t been confirmed.
So the budget will have to be enacted in three days, or there’ll have to be an unusually short recess, going into Easter week or returning before 12 April, or the election will have to be after May 6, or the government will have to forgo £2bn a day in taxes from the dissolution until a budget is enacted.
12 How so tim? Cameron’s being honest about his wife’s involvement. Brown told us he’d never use his family, and yet Sarah Brown’s everywhere, and the children are continually mentioned in interviews. (I won’t mention her entertaining of McBride and chums at Chequers).
Fascinating article. Andy. It seems like Howard would have needed about 60% of the vote to actually get a decent majority.
Andy - I saw your analysis of the marginals yesterday. Do you think the model fits in with what that was showing or would it require further tweaking?
12. You mean ‘Magda Goebbels’. I don’t think so..
31. Parliament will dissolve on the 8th.
20, Rod,
Yep. I used the results figures from Martin Baxter’s site - he very kindly puts them up in a form easy to use.
21,
Philip Thompson,
Yes - boundary changes are taken into account. In 1997, they should have helped the Tories, but the tsunami was such that it ended up hindering them - they’d hollowed out “semi-safe” seats to bolster “semi marginal” seats. As it turned out, all were blown away to the point of losing theoretically safe seats.
25, antifrank,
I think that it is boiling down to saying that uniform national swing is a rule of thumb, not a rule of law. Excellently put.
It’s often cited as law when it is simply a rule of thumb.
14, Sandy Rentool,
Exactly right.
Thanks all for the kind words - always appreciated.
Surely IDS was the conservative’s lowest point.
31 David H - Toenails reckoned there’d be a shortened Easter break and they’d come back on the 6th IIRC - check DP today for gen.
24/32/34 - Ok I guess I was wrong that the news would reach the bottom of the barrel.
One major source of distortion (if that’s really the right word) is the first-past-the-post parliamentary system itself. Here are two factors not discussed above:
1. Because instead of having one national electorate, you have hundreds of local electorates. Now back in the mid-20th century, politics in Great Britain was very homogenized which masked this fact. BUT in recent decades this centralism has broken down from Lands End to John o’Groats.
2. Demographic patterns, in particular concentration of working class & ethnic voters into inner city and similar constituencies. Where Labour wins lots of seats despite very low voter turnouts.
A couple of other things. Finally watched PMQs. Did the PLP just decide not to bother to turn up today? A rather sharp moment from Cameron when he got stuck into that idiot on the Labour back benchers. Seemed to be a score draw in the end, with Brown actually showing a bit of deft footwork on that one. However the constant response of Ashcroft to anything was really pathetic.
Also watched the chat show interview which went rather well I thought. In fact he looked quite surprised by the positive reaction.
31 David H - According to The Times:
The March 24 date for the Budget makes it almost certain the general election will be held on May 6. The timetable would allow Mr Brown to go to Buckingham Palace to seek a dissolution on April 6, without the full-blown campaign interrupting the Easter break.
It would mean a four-week campaign, with manifestos published during the week beginning April 12 and leaders’ television debates on the Thursday of each of the three full weeks of the campaign.
The Times understands that in the past few weeks Mr Brown, along with his closest colleagues, Lord Mandelson, Ed Balls and Ed Miliband, have considered the merits of an earlier election battle but rejected the idea.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article7056366.ece?token=null&offset=12&page=2
I would have thought that the disadvantages of waiting until June (the extra cost for Labour and the charge of being frightened of an election) would be pretty decisive factors. They could presumably rush through the budget, and perhaps have a slightly shorter recess, to overcome the difficulties you point out.
FPT - Richard Nabavi
“Not just the French: Le Monde. The house newspaper of the Ecole Nationale d’Administration”
Please keep my alma mater out of this…
Le Monde used to be the only dispassionate and centrist (well, centre-centre-centre left) paper of reference. Thus read (and admired) by everybody who counted in Paris.
These days are gone since at least 20 years ago. They are now much more partisan, they even direclty endorsed Royal in 2007 (and had no small role in her rise)… More generally , the quality of the paper has been in decline in recent years (as exposed, by left-wing authors, in the very good book “La face cachée du Monde”).
Their recent coverage regarding UK elections is quite poor and ferociously pro-Labour (but their correspondents seem more enamoured of Milliband than Brown).
37.22nd novemeber 1990, tories lowest point.
35. How do you get that? It’s 17 working days from dissolution to election isn’t it?
41 Cameron needs to do lots and lots of this - he comes over really well, personally I’d ditch the suit and do more ‘this is me’ stuff.
He can be all PMish when the starting gun is fired.
David Cameron may have had a fairly soft interview but I’m always impressed by him. He’s a much more rounded individual than Gordon Brown who looked bloody awful today when being interviewed by Nick Robinson. He looks overweight (too many bananas) his face was puffy and DC was right when he said you can spend too much time in the bunker surrounded by sycophants.
Good article Andy but a lot to take it - need more time to digest.
Andy, fascinating article, still digesting it.
37 - “Surely IDS was the conservative’s lowest point.”
as US talk show and ex-alcoholic Craig Ferguson put it in his autobiography, “how many times did you hit rock bottom?”
IDS was useless, but his tenure was at least brief (and did force the Tories out of their slumber).
Hague did the most damage, which is still being felt by the Tories today (think of the likes of the Wintertons still being around in parliament)
41 - surely we should know by now that these soft chat shows are where the potential voters are, and not yet another news programme?
39 ‘Ok I guess I was wrong that the news would reach the bottom of the barrel.’
But you already know tim.
47.48. indigestion…Andy, do you generally have this effect on women?
It seems that viewing figures for Alan Titchmarsh Show are usually about 1.5m.
Cathy newman Ch4
C4 News FactCheck tonight: Gordon Brown’s lies on defence spending. More soon
42. I’m sure that’s the plan, it’s just one that leaves almost no slack in case something unexpected happens.
38. I didn’t see that and returning on the Tuesday 6th (immediately after the Easter bank holiday!) makes sense for the timetable but I can’t see it being popular with MPs!
47 Superficial as it may seem - if Cameron trims up a little then he’ll pull in the subconscious ‘fit for office’ vote.
Just think of Obama - he looked young, lean, fit and atheletic.
Gordon looks pasty-faced, fat, old and tired. He doesn’t = 5 more years as he already looks totally knackered.
I don’t think anyone can doubt the fact that Dave does a nice turn on the daytime likeability shows.
Thats not where his ratings have suffered, its on knowing what he stands for, judgement, commitment and strength where he’s suffered.
29.Gordon’s whole day was arranged to make sure that the Cameron appearance on Titmarsh or at PMQ’s got absolutely no coverage in the evening news. Brace yourself, its going to be wall to wall Gordon and a veritable blizzard of headlines when ever he thinks Cameron might get a news day.
Did Brown decide to do a big ‘economic’ speech and take away Darling’s thunder on a budget date because David Cameron was doing a sofa style interview today. Perish the thought that he could be that petty or manipulative, oh, he is.
Pelosi claims she’d have the votes to pass Obamacare if the vote took place today:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2010/03/10/pelosi_house_has_votes_to_pass_health_bill.html
I’ve never seen Pelosi looking so bug-eyed with such a creepy forced smile and sounding so deranged. Power has aged her terribly; it’s shocking to contrast how she looks today with her appearance only three years ago when she first became Speaker:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DKjX3zH6qo0
Parliament will dissolve on the 8th.
by Kratz March 10th, 2010 at 6:14 pm
That dammned river again, keeps on getting in.
3, so he’s got two homes, and a mortgage on the second.
Or is the answer Lord Ashcroft?
7, disappointed to hear this. Whilst she’s lovely, I’m not very enthusiastic about wives, sons and so forth playing roles in campaigns.
12, no, she remains a propagandist witch. HAs she had any cosy chats with Damian recently?
12 tim - - At least that will shut up the Sarah Brown baiters on here.
If that ever had a chance of being true the chance died on its feet when you made that post.
I understand that Sarah was the driving force behind the “youtube if you want to” performance of our Great Leader. On that basis I absolutely and sincerely welcome her full-on involvement in the coming campaign. Nothing could be more beneficial to the nation.
43 Chris - You’re an Enarque? I’m surprised you’re not a minister, an EU commissioner, or running a nationalised industry!
It’s certainly true what you say about the coverage of UK politics by Le Monde. I clicked on one of their other articles, about Ashcroft, and it was a straight lift from the Guardian with no mention at all of Labour non-dom donors. Very different from the detailed (if rather boring) and scrupulous coverage I remember from when I lived in France many years ago.
31. The MSM and just about everyone else have been brainwashed by Labour into thinking the election is May 6th.
It is rightly favourite, but I really do think that Brown and Co have not yet yet ruled out June and there is still a very strong case to be made for June.
43- You’re an enarque?! That’s quite an accomplishment (no, really!).
45. No idea, and I have no idea of the protocol. I just know what is what is going to happen.
57 And hopefully these viewers will be making tea during the news
47, 55 Plato
The classic Doctor Who line (adapted slightly) 6 words to bring down the PM..
“Don’t you think he looks tired”
31.DavidH, if Brown felt the need to go long and leave it until June. How difficult would it be for him with his current majority, to push through a quick bit of legislation to shift the local elections date back to suit that GE date, as was done back in 2001 due to F&M?
68. He can do it without legislation, it’s just a matter of getting permission from HMQ.
36. I think there is still an problem somewhere involving the 2005 figures; I think they are based on the notional results…
So the figures do not accurately represent the distortions from UNS. That in itself is a confusing description, since what these figures really show is the bias in the electoral system. The “distortion from UNS” (at the equal vote position) can be estimated by taking the difference between each pair of numbers and dividing by two…
67 If I were into Tory black-ops - I’d go for ‘tired Gordon’, it’s a killer PR wise and works on so many levels masquerading as ‘concern’.
Howard won the most votes in England yet won less seats than Foot did in 1983.
62- I live in the US where neither of these positions was available…
“detailed (if rather boring) and scrupulous coverage” was their force. they lost it to try to win younger readers.
64- thanks. (but it is rather less prestigious/popular than it was some years ago)
Does anyone really think that if the budget is received badly and the polls immediately afterwards turn against him, so he is trailing by about 15% again, that he will call an immediate election? Especially knowing that bad Q1 results are liekly to be announced the week before May 6th.
He will see what the verdict of the polls are with regard to the elction and if the inital feedback is bad, he will delay and hope for another bounce before June.
35/1 available for June on Betfair is a ridiculous price. There is surely a better than 3% chance that it will be June.
36.”they’d hollowed out “semi-safe” seats to bolster “semi marginal” seats. As it turned out, all were blown away to the point of losing theoretically safe seats.”
Andy, that is a very interesting point to note, thanks. Its going to be very interesting to see if that holds for Labour where it didn’t for the Conservatives back in 1997. I must admit that the boundary changes up in the North East in 2005 seemed to be about solidifying the Libdem and Labour incumbents.
Not sure if this has been mentioned yet but BBC website reporting Mark Fisher to stand down at the election.
53. “C4 News FactCheck tonight: Gordon Brown’s lies on defence spending. More soon”
Shocking.
72 And won’t that be a puzzle for the LDs given a NOM position.
It really only struck me today that despite living in a very safe seat, I could help avoid a LD/Lab pact by voting Tory despite it’s zero difference on the local result.
This may be something worth pushing irrespective of the constituency profile as every Tory vote would make life hard for parties ignoring the popular vote rather than seats won??
49. Hague’s in danger of getting a very raw deal from history for his leadership. He made two really big political mistakes: the early PR (baseball cap etc) and backing Archer for London mayor. Most of the other initiatives he took were the right thing at the right time.
It’s not fair to blame him for the MPs he inherited nor for not sorting them out more. In the Conservative party of 1997, local constituencies had almost unfettered power to reselect those the party would be better rid of and they often had solid local support (think Neil Hamilton pre-1997). Hague introduced badly needed reforms which dragged the party structure out of the 1950s and into the 1990s but it took time and effort and it fell to later leaders to make use of the improved machinery.
Politically, Hague started off down the inclusive path but realised very quickly that he had no chance of beating Blair there - the swing voters simply had no interest in listening and if they did, preferred Labour at the time - and was equally in danger of losing the core vote who still saw 1997 as a blip. A core vote strategy was therefore the only serious option. The one political battle he did take on and win was sorting out the European splits. He was helped by the Heathite generation heading off into the sunset but the Tory party of 2001 was more united on the EU than at any time since the early 1980s.
Hague was further undermined by the inexperience of his front bench, both outright and in the art of opposition. Too often the shadow cabinet tried to sound like a government when the public was mostly happy with the one they had and had unpleasant memories of the previous Tory one.
All in all, Hague did a pretty good job in extremely trying circumstances.
78 Plato
well if the English vote gives the Tories a majority of seats or a sizeable lead in votes cast, it will be difficult for Lab\LD to keep forcing England only legislation with non-english votes. One can at least respect SNP and PC for their abstentions on the matter.
76:You have to wonder why some Labour Mps are leaving it so late to announce they are standing down. Is this a better indication than the polls, of the way things are going on the ground? or is it always like this?
81 annak
Peerages. Same as always.
79 David H - couldn’t agree more.
Hague picked up a crap hand and dealt with it as best he could [PR disasters aside!]
I think he did the Tories a great service at much cost to himself and although I used to think he was in the wrong place at the wrong time, I don’t feel he’d have trumped Cameron in today’s media world.
So, all in all - fate did the Tories a good service if a painful one.
68. It can be done on an Order in Council although he - or more accurately, the relevant Sec of State - can’t leave it too long as the timetable for the local elections kicks in soon (I can’t remember the exact details but know that local election campaigns last longer than those of GE’s).
37. Tories lowest spot? May 7th 2010?
Oh, and very interesting article, Mr. Cooke
81 Seats for Unite candidates? Maybe tim could let us know.
81 I find it stunning - it’s a handful of weeks away and almost every day someone jumps ship - very peculiar and gives their successor bugger all time to establish themselves too.
The Tories were already 0.3% ahead in England in 2005, so it’s quite likely they’ll be at least 10% ahead this time.
87 Payback for all that marginals money.
O/T Obama popularity
I just noticed that in the Rasmussen faily poll, the number of “strongly disapprove”is no equal to the sum of “strongly approve” and “somewhat approve” (total “disapprove”is 56%)
Before ukpaul says it, I know that Rasmussen is out of line with other pollsters (and always the worse for Obama), but the trend over the last year in the same poll taken every day is quite clear:
March 10 2009
strongly approve 38
strongly disapprove 32
total approve/disapprove 56 / 43
March 10 2010
strongly approve 22 (-16)
strongly dissaprove 43 (+11)
total approve/disapprove 43 (-13) / 56 (+13)
81 - he does have a medical complaint.
79. If given the chance, he will be a formidable Foreign Secretary too.
91- sorry for all the typos - shouldn’t have lunch while typing!
(but “faily poll” is quite amusing!)
93, we’ll have to wait and see. I’d be surprised if he were worse than Milipede (D) though.
fr,
I may have expressed myself poorly. To take the example of the 1992 election:
A UNS from 1987 would say that a 2.6% lead would be enough for Major to retain his majority. What actually happened was that his lead was severely cut back even with a 7.5% lead, and running a straight swing from the actual results, we’d find that he’d have actually lost his majority on a lead not much over 6%. This is because the deviations from a straight swing did not cancel out, but as Labour overperformance was concentrated where it was most needed, the electoral landscape changed during the election.
The swing from 1992 to 1997 is therefore based on the landscape produced by the 1992 election (with some further changes from the boundary changes - which mainly acted in the Conservatives favour). So a rule of thumb would be that to see how the landscape changed during the election, compare the UNS predictions at the election (which are based on the landscape of the election before) with the UNS predictions of the next election. These are based on the landscape coming out of the election in question.
So Election number 2 has UNS predictions based on Election number 1. If we wish to see how the landscape changed in Election 2, we can look at the UNS predictions for Election 3, which are based on the landscape coming out of Election 2.
I want to apologize for my last post on pb over a week ago,it went well over the top,sorry to the poster I abused and sorry to the posters who took offence(such as runnymede).
I would have apologized sooner,but I was suspended from pb.
For all the talk of the polls, this is what Mr Bolton has to say:
“Brown’s doggedness does not quite reflect the mood of Labour ministers and election candidates who I have been speaking too.
Almost every conversation comes down to which seats Labour will probably lose and which they “might” hang on to. Nobody talks of gains.
The party is preparing to lose MPs, its majority and office.
As one candidate in a safe Labour seat put it: “I haven’t got time to waste persuading Tory voters, I’ve got to get out my core.”"
http://blogs.news.sky.com/boultonandco/Post:65eb6a32-e23e-4d69-a936-265d0bc9c7b6
15. fr Read across from each election – that is what UNS said should be the case going in. The line below (the landscape seen in hindsight after the actual election was fought becomes that forecast for the next election) is what it actually was.
Is it me?
Is what you?
It seems not all Libdems believe in free speech:
Ukip MEP removed from European parliament after outburst
Lord Dartmouth is second Ukip MEP to fall foul of Strasbourg chamber in a fortnight
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2010/mar/10/ukip-mep-outburst-european-parliament
Illiberal Liberal Democrats no less. Where’s Martin Day?
Today’s PMQs:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pj-Z6JKhP_M
79 - Hagues ludicrous retreat into euro obsession, opposing the minimum wage and BoE independence, supporting section 28 and dozens of other laughable positions meant he put the Conservative case back so far that not only had he wiped 1.3 Million tory supporters off Majors total, but for the year before the election his rightward tacking led to internecine war with the “modernisers” and guaranteed that the election itself was regarded as a no contest.
His “foreign land speech” made him beyond the pale even with those who had resisted regarding him as a joke.
Hague’s in danger of getting a very raw deal from history for his leadership.
Only if he surpasses it with his period as”Deputy Leader”, where even now his Archer/Ashcroft phase is coming back to haunt him.
97
How many Labour MP’s have given lip service to the core vote and concentrated on the swing voters….
91- The only polls that Obama does decently in anymore are polls of “adults,” which necessarily are about half constituted of people who don’t vote. It’s nice to know what everybody thinks, but not terribly relevant or instructive to those of us who try to forecast political trends. If you look only at polls of registered or likely voters, Obama is almost always in the 40’s these days (and the difference between Rasmussen’s likely voters job approval number and that found in other surveys of registered voters isn’t much).
Channel 4 Factcheck
http://blogs.channel4.com/factcheck/2010/03/10/brown-gets-defensive-about-budgets/
So Brown is a lying liarpants. What a surprise.
re 463 FPT Dave H I answered this yesterday. The government only needs to get a simple Finance Act enacted and you can better your life there will be things in it that the Tories won’t like and it’ll be cast to show them them in a poor light if they object, and sod the economy and the country. Secondly have a look at this Year’s Consolidated Fund Act 2009 where the government voted itself plenty of money to tide it over for a month if it needed to.
81
To be fair in the case of Mark Fisher he is saying it is for medical reasons as he has Hydrocephalus.
97 SLN
“I’ve got to get out my core ” and there in a nutshell is why this election will throw up surprises. The voters either want to stay at home or give a protest vote to make their point to the big 3.
24 “Why should Sarah Brown be above any criticism when she has pushed herself so much into the limelight as a PM’s political consort?”
Realpolitik reason is cos it’d 99% likely backfire cos of the kiddie.
93. Kratz
He’ll probably have to be.
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/5832043/hague-and-cameron-are-vindicated-for-leaving-the-epp.thtml
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/7415352/Baroness-Ashton-drops-opposition-to-Euro-army-headquarters.html
“37.Surely IDS was the conservative’s lowest point.”
The ERM was the conservative’s lowest point. Hague, IDS, Howard all had no chance till it unwound.
imo
81, 106 What a pity - he might have been able to be present in the new Parliament to see a fellow Old Etonian become PM.
108. Since when did having kids make a difference? Cherie Blair was hardly out of bounds ever was she?
Northern Ireland polling stats latest from UKPR - given with many caveats.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/2506
It’s not looking at all good tonight for Anne Moffat MP.
It’s been announced that there’s to be a special meeting in her East Lothian constituency to decide whether she remains as the Labour candidate for the forthcoming UK General Election.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/briantaylor/2010/03/is_it_all_over_for_anne_moffat.html
96 Andy Cooke
Much obliged Andy for taking time out for the remedial class.
46. I do agree that Cameron comes across much, much better than Gordon Brown.
During the campaign each of the three main political groups will receive roughly the same amount of airtime, and so should benefit David Cameron and the Conservatives. I think he’ll be able to persuade quite a few of the undecided.
51, chrisg00,
47.48. indigestion…Andy, do you generally have this effect on women?
33, Sth London Nick,
Andy - I saw your analysis of the marginals yesterday. Do you think the model fits in with what that was showing or would it require further tweaking?
Well, the core thrust is that shifting centrist votes where it counts and tactical voting/withdrawal of tactical votes helps or hinders the overall swing to a fairly dramatic extent. I do think that it does hold together with what all of the marginals polls have been saying.
On the discussion about Hague and core vote strategies: I think that the picture painted shows that core vote strategies are inherently limiting exercises in two respects - they limit your potential losses, but they then impose limits on your future gains due to biasing the landscape against you. It’s the price paid to stave off potential electoral oblivion - you will ensure that the landscape is biased against you in the next election - either by retaining some or all of any inherent bias, or even tilting it further against yourself (or removing/reducing a tilt against your opponent). Not an easy decision to ever have to make.
thanks Stars to keep us posted on Pelosi’s progress. I was able able to rebuy at $4,30 the shares i previously sold at $5 — from a dance club wt my mobile! Viva interneta!
117
Thanks Andy, being in the remedial class (I am sure tim will agree) it might take some time for it all to sink in. Nevertheless many thanks for the pieces you have done.
MTF
cathynewman
my defector hasn’t defected…there were rumours ex-health minister Lord Warner was going to cross the floor…but he says he’s staying put
but he says he would be happy to advise a Conservative government… 16 minutes ago via web
The antives are getting restless.
antives ? lol natives
120 Well that’s him fingered in any event!
I actually feel more clever after reading this and the two other previous articles in this series.
Brown as churchill
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/nickrobinson/2010/03/brown_presents_himself_as_a.html
I don’t believe churchill bottled anything, certainly not an election.
I don’t believe Churchill had buddies to spread lies and smears in the way brown has.
I don’t think Churchill judgement was so poor that he wrecked the economy.
Brown in comparison to churchill, good luck with that gordon.
WOAH YIP YIP!!!
http://order-order.com/2010/03/10/nick-hogan-freed-by-the-blogosphere/
So can any body tell me how we should be reading this for the coming election?
Does the Cons have to lead by 10.2% to win?
If so I will pack my bags now.
I missed this story.
Its a good one.
Sarah Palin has raised questions over her staunch criticism of state health care after the former Alaska governor admitted her own family used to “zoom” over the border to get treated in Canada’s hospitals….”I remember my brother, he burned his ankle in some little kid accident thing, and my parents had to put him on a train and rush him over to Whitehorse, and I think, ‘Isn’t that kind of ironic now’. Zooming over the border, getting health care from Canada.”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/usa/sarah-palin/7409555/Sarah-Palins-family-sought-health-care-in-Canada.html
Simon Heffer seems to think that the 2012 GOP presidential nomination contest will be a race between Palin and Romney:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/simonheffer/7408382/Americans-seem-to-want-them-but-can-the-Republicans-deliver.html
I quickly scrolled down the article looking to see who else he’d talk about, but to no avail. Sorry Simon, it won’t be Palin or Romney.
100 Just watched PMQ’s . Horrified at the chanting of Ashcroft’s name by a crazed Harman as Cameron tries to make a point about defence spending and equipment shortages. Absolutely disgusting behaviour by Labour today - shows what they’re all about and their attitude to the military “well, they’re all Tories anyway, who cares what they say” . Speechless.
100 Just watched PMQ’s . Horrified at the chanting of Ashcroft’s name by a crazed Harman as Cameron tries to make a point about defence spending and equipment shortages. Absolutely disgusting behaviour by Labour today - shows what they’re all about and their attitude to the military “well, they’re all Tories anyway, who cares what they say” . Speechless.
99.
Good to see buffoonish UKIP MEPs kicked out of the European Parliament.
UKIP MEPs are an embarrassment to this country.
As is the Conservatives’ new European Parliamentary grouping. No other mainstream European political party is besmirching its and its country’s reputation by cosying up with homophobes and anti-semite weirdos like the Tories have done.
126 - they would do if universal national swing were in operation without any changes from the last election.
Andy thinks a 5.7% lead or greater would be more likely than not to deliver a majority based on the factors he has outlined in his recent articles. That’s obviously a disparity of 4.5%.
125 - Yes, prison is the wrong place for publicity seeking pricks.
Cleaning up sputum from a cancer ward would be a better punishment.
124. “I don’t think Churchill judgement was so poor that he wrecked the economy”
Churchill wasn’t a good chancellor. The difference is that he knew it at the time and admitted that he didn’t have the knowledge to challenge the professionals and mandarins, hence his relatively conservative tenure from 1924-9. Brown, by contrast, went far too far the other way in ignoring good advice that conflicted with his own views.
131. You know plenty about being an embarrassment don’t you Benny boy….
132
Oh ! I clearly flunked the remedial class as well.
BenM & Lilly Allen = Dumb and Dumber
So S&S, what’s your take on the mess that is Eric Massa? Was he one of Karl Rove’s moles?
133. Tim, I had cancer and I never smoked….grow up…stop the brainwashing..
131. I don’t know. You could join a grouping with 9/11 truthers, or Stalin-supporting communists, or terrorist supporters.
Oh wait. Labour’s PES has all three, with anti-semites thrown in too.
124 - Churchill was a great PM, but he screwed the economy,screwed the armed forces at Gallipoli, suffered from depression and was pissed most of the time he was in No.10.
Parhaps Gordon should start drinking Pol Roger by the pint at lunchtime.
128. Who else do you think it will be? It seems that Huckabee won’t go for it now, so I reckon Romney, Palin or Thune should be the favourites.
137 - Harsh, I actually liked the film Dumb and Dumber. It was funny.
131. Considering UKIP outpolled Labour in the Euros, they’ve got a good deal more right to be there than your boys and girls.
135.
Indeed. I’ve been watching your career very closely…!
131 Oooooh, good segue there BenM. Have a slice of fruitcake as a reward.
Speaking of fruitcakes, Gordon Brown is one.
See? I can do it too!
138- Won’t you be surprised to discover that half of the House and Senate Democratic caucuses are Karl Rove plants! We’re setting one off every week from now to election day. (oops, I let the cat out of the bag…)
145 BenM
“an embarrassment to this country” - so how would you describe Bill Etherington ?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1252602/Europeans-horrified-Labour-MPs-champagne-drinking-contest-official-trip.html
Ooooooooh
Brain ache.
145..Someone else is watching your career now BenM…not too impressed so far… Have you met Lilly and Tim
145..Someone else is watching your career now BenM…not too impressed so far… Have you met Lilly and Tim
116. “During the campaign each of the three main political groups will receive roughly the same amount of airtime, and so should benefit David Cameron and the Conservatives.”
I’ve always wondered how rigorously, if at all, that is policed? Do the three main parties get about the same amount of airtime? Is there any measure of the quality, as opposed to quantity, of coverage?
To put it another way would 5 minutes of leader A making a t*t of himself equate to 5 minutes of leader B looking statesmanlike?
144.
UKIPs presence in the European Parliament, where they cannot do anything to push their main objective - the mad desire to get the UK to leave the EU - is proof positive that British Europhobia is based on pure, over-indulged, tabloid-hyped ignorance.
I don’t know why, but I have the urge to post this.
http://gentoo-blog.de/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/please-do-not-feed-the-troll.jpg
142- Palin and Romney both have serious flaws that will derail their candidacies sooner or later. Neither will cut it down the stretch when GOP primary voters finally cast their votes. I don’t know who it will be, but it won’t be either of them. Thune is credible and I wouldn’t exclude the possibility, but I highly doubt it will be him either. GOP primary voters just won’t want a member of Congress as their candidate next time.
153 BenM
always nice to read a minority view
141
Tim once again displays his outstanding ignorance of WW1 history. Since he is ognorant of most other subjects as well this is hardly surprising.
153 - You do realise the current PM, a Labour Prime Minister was first elected as an MP, on a manifesto, which he supported, which wanted to withdraw Britain from the EU.
So are you saying Gordon Brown is mad?
99. The EU Parliament well on its way to becoming the Supreme Soviet I see…
152 Well the Tories have given Clarence Mitchell a job to monitor their media so assume that they’re already on battle stations
145. Have you now? Well I’m not sure whether to be flattered or worried that I’ve picked up a delusional (‘career’!!!???) cyber-stalker.
138- Actually, I wonder about your take on Massa. It is remarkable that such a nut could be a top national Democratic recruit in two successive strong election cycles in a competitive district. How was it that nobody vetted this guy, either on the Democratic side or the Republican side? It obviously would have been in the interests of both parties to investigate his checkered past and erratic personality.
155- S and S
If he maintains his current approval, Bob Mc Donnell would seem a good candidate. I think he has more 2016 in mind, though
153. BenM
Europhilia is the political equivalent of necrophilia
128. It probably will be between those two. Who gets it is most likely to depend on whether Romney learns his lessons from 2008 when he spent far too much time attacking all his other opponents and not enough promoting himself. He’ll probably be tempted to do the same again as Palin will offer an apparently easy target given her flimsy CV. Easy but wrong. She’ll go for Obama and the Democrat establishment say what her fans want to hear. Romney could easily end up looking too negative again.
164 jsfl
better not use big words, you’ll confuse him.
164 - Would you prefer to be seen dead with a necrophiliac or a europhile?
167. TSE Can you tell the difference?
165- David H
I don’t believe for a minute that Palin could do it. Rightly or wrongly, her credibility is now too damaged. GOP primary voters are not that suicidal.
158. So what? What is Mr Brown’s position now?
Brown’s stance is the sensible one, supported by a majority in the UK. To engage with the world’s largest supra-national trading bloc and use it to further Britain’s interest where cooperation with our continental neighbours is more likely to get things done.
Better that than the nonsensical europhobe habit of sniping from the sidelines like spoiled brats, or worse, throwing cringe-worthy infantile insults at other European politicians like a certain dimwit UKIP MEP.
161 Labour trolls are really poor quality even if they are volunteers - they make ‘ash cash’ from Labourlist seem sophisticated.
What I really don’t get is why *any* party would want to deploy obviously partisan sock-puppets to infest sites like this where 80% of the discussion is based on hard facts.
It a troll killing field as nonsense is picked apart within minutes, and they are ridiculed accordingly.
Still, it provides amusement during quiet periods
167 - Not after a bottle of champagne. Probably more to do with standards.
157 - Perhaps harsh, perhaps not.
But as Churchill himself seemed to think the Armenian Genocide was hastened by his actions it didn’t exactly count as one of his finest moments.
“I don’t think anyone can doubt the fact that Dave does a nice turn on the daytime likeability shows.
Thats not where his ratings have suffered, its on knowing what he stands for, judgement, commitment and strength where he’s suffered.
”
Yet, Populus on Monday night rated Cameron highly on all those attributes.
131 Perhaps. But what does that say about Labour’s MEPs, who received even fewer votes than UKIP’s did?
170 BenM
Tell me what per centage of the vote share did the Labour Party get at the Euro Elections?
Just watched the health debate on C4 news. Burnham, quite good, Lamb libdem excellent, Lansley, why did he bother to turn up?
168 - Totally random observation. Never have sex with a German female.
They will inevitability say “Oh ja, ja, ja” or “Oh nein, nein, nein”
WHich makes you think you’re starring in some low rate German p0rno, and you cant stop giggling, which kinda ruins the mood.
170.which sixth form did you say you were in..
171 - Plato.
I don’t think a “troll hunter” whose political knowledge begins in 2006 is the most useful tool in the box, do you?
Although perhaps you could provide us with a service.
What is the Libertarian Parties view of the age of consent these days?
170 Plainly, Brown’s position was not supported by 84% of those who voted last June.
Worth a giggle, apparently clegg is a thatcherite, and fraser has become a lib dem.
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/5831523/clegg-heir-to-thatcher.thtml
170 BenM
utter tosh
In 1992 Labour gained 40 seats from the Conservatives, but the Tories only lost 15 of them as a result of the drop in their own share of the vote. They lost the other 25 because of a switch in votes from the Alliance/LDs to Labour.
These were the changes in the 15 seats the Tories lost because of their own vote falling:
1. Barrow & Furness: Con maj in 1987: 7.2%, change in Con share in 1992: -5.1%
2. B’ham Yardley: Con maj in 1987: 6.0%, change in Con share in 1992: -8.1%
3. Bristol East: Con maj in 1987: 8.2%, change in Con share in 1992: -4.4%
4. Cardiff Central: Con maj in 1987: 4.8%, change in Con share in 1992: -3.2%
5. Darlington: Con maj in 1987: 5.9%, change in Con share in 1992: -3.6%
6. Dulwich: Con maj in 1987: 0.5%, change in Con share in 1992: -0.6%
7. Hornsey & Wood Green: Con maj in 1987: 3.0%, change in Con share in 1992: -3.8%
8. Ipswich: Con maj in 1987: 1.7%, change in Con share in 1992: -1.1%
9. Kingswood: Con maj in 1987: 7.5%, change in Con share in 1992: -4.3%
10.Nottingham East: Con maj in 1987: 1.0%, change in Con share in 1992: -6.5%
11.Nottingham South: Con maj in 1987: 4.2%, change in Con share in 1992: -2.9%
12.Streatham: Con maj in 1987: 5.7%, change in Con share in 1992: -3.7%
13.Wallasey: Con maj in 1987: 0.5%, change in Con share in 1992: -0.5%
14.Wolverhampton NE: Con maj in 1987: 0.4%, change in Con share in 1992: -0.9%
15.York: Con maj in 1987: 0.2%, change in Con share in 1992: -2.4%
Major’s majority would have been 71 instead of 21 if the Tories had only lost these seats.
171.
What I really don’t get is why *any* party would want to deploy obviously partisan sock-puppets to infest sites like this where 80% of the discussion is based on hard facts.
When I consider his statement versus your (and the general rightwing) airy dismissal of AGW climate science I can’t help but be clobbered by the overwhelming irony.
no Socrates — Romney and Palin are old faces. Its gonna be someone perceived as new, as fresh blood — as remote of DC as can be.
The Screaming Eagles Anecdote alert.
About 15mins ago, my son saw Gordon Brown on tv for the first time ever, and started crying.
The first time I visited my nephew, he was fast asleep. We took it in turns to hold him. When I started holding him, he woke up and started yelling his head off. I gave him back to Mummy, whereupon he promptly fell asleep again.
170 Brown’s position is to put up a big show of not giving in to europe whilst quietly selling the British people down the river.
Andy once again provides intriguing numbers … but the wild variation over the years should not be allowed to obscure the fact that something structural and (probably) irreversible changed in order to convert a seeming mild Tory bias into a strong Labour one … Namely, working-class turn-out collapsed in extraordinary fashion over the 90s and noughties. There’s always been some class differential, but nothing like on the scale we now take for granted.
Anti-Tory tactical votes may have explained the arrival of the pro-Labour bias in the (high turnout) 1992 election, but what consolidated it in 1997 and more particularly 2001 was the failure of working class Labour supporters to turn out to the polls, a trend that was only very modestly reversed in 2005. In seats such as Liverpool Riverside where turnout is only around 40% Labour can chalk up a crushing victory with many fewer than 20,000 votes. Compare that to safe Tory Huntingdon, where middle class electorate turn out in far greater numbers and the Tories pile up something like 27,000 votes (and for a lower share of the vote).
Everyone can have their own theory as to why working class turnout has collapsed - the demise of the unions, class dealignment, the triangulation of new Labour etc - but this feels like a deep trend that will not be reversed any time soon. And while it is not, the Tories will pile up many more votes in their safe seats than Labour do, and - when all else is equal - that will result in a considerable pro-Labour bias.
141 As so often in War, the dividing line between triumph and disaster is a very narrow one. Galliopoli might have turned out an outstanding success. Unfortunately, Kemal was an outstanding commander, while Sir Ian Hamilton ought to have been shot for incompetence.
163- McDonnell has a long road ahead of him between now and 2016 if that’s his goal. Not least of his problems is that he can only serve one term as governor, which expires three years before the 2016 elections. Also, the timing of his term is poor for him to springboard to the next logical step in building a winning resume, which would be a Senate bid. Would one term as governor be enough to launch a winning presidential campaign? I doubt it. This is no fault of his, but that’s how it is.
165- Romney and Palin are obvious names to put forward today, like Giuliani back in the day. Palin’s problems are enormous: thin on political experience, thin on gravitas, thin on command of the issues… and bizarrely quit in the middle of her one term as governor. Her GOP base is enthusiastic but lacking in numbers sufficient to propel her to the nomination. Romney is a transparent flip-flopper on a range of issues, forced upon him by his need to win statewide races in Massachusetts and then try to win over a national GOP electorate. Plus, his authorship of Romneycare won’t win back any dissipated trust in his conservative bona fides. His problem is the opposite of Palin’s: widespread support but thin as paper.
So who does that leave? A lot of potential candidates lurk out there in the weeds. A governor or former governor like Tim Pawlenty is the most likely course, having 1) solid experience, 2) outside-the-beltway credibility, and 3) no glaring problems that disqualify him.
153
Terrible stuff this democracy isn’t it Ben. Wouldn’t it be much better if we just forgot all about electing people to represent us and let you and Gordon and the EU run our lives for us without any of that nasty voting stuff.
186 - I find that hard to believe.
You are lovely, and my favourite poster on here.
184 BenM…The AGW boys dismissed themselves with the unbelievable distortion of so called facts .. remember the vanishing glaziers…the e-mails against dissenters…very soviet shit.. effin grow up
What odds against Joanna Lumley standing as an independent against Kevan Jones MP the rather odious junior defence minister
187. Thats why he put that patsy (you know Kellner’s wife) in the high foreign wotsit role or whatever pretentious name they’ve called it. She’s only their to be steamrollered by the Europhiliacs….
109: ‘http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/5832043/hague-and-cameron-are-vindicated-for-leaving-the-epp.thtml’
Yes, setting up and joining the ECR has given the Tories an ideal platform to oppose the ghastly anti-City and anti-British ‘Tobin tax’. Can you imagine Brown at PMQs if the Tories had remained in the EPP? ‘Even the other members of the Conservatives’ own grouping in Europe support…’ before sitting down in triumph to grin at his beer gut. Well done William and Dave, superb judgement all round!
their=there doh!
184 Oh dear - have you finished your homework already?
Since you have spare time on your hands, your mum would be chuffed if you helped with the washing up
162. I think it’s related to the Democrats insecurity complex about not being manly enough, and the resulting policy of putting up veterans as candidates even when they’re not the best candidate (see Kerry, John)…
170. Completely untrue. Most British people would like to repatriate powers from the EU. A trading bloc would be great, but the EU is clearly trying to go for full political union, with the connivance of cowards like Brown.
Re: GOP 2012. I think you need to look at the primary schedule. If Huckabee isn’t there Palin could do very well in Iowa. She’d obviously lose New Hampshire badly, but a decent position in South Carolina would then lead her into the second batch, which are all Western states with high tea party membership. After that it would probably have come down to a two person race. If that other person is Romney she’d have a fighting chance.
Of course, her whole organisation is clearly an amateur affair, and there would likely be a huge gaffe or two to throw a spanner in the works. But her fans might be too devoted to care, and may even backlash if the media focuses on her mistakes too much.
162, S&S - you must be reading my mind!
At least the Democrats can say that they’ve chucked this tarbaby out of the troika, headfirst. As for the GOP, they can say that is deserting their colors was the first sign that he was a no-goodnick.
Also, while the softer-headed members of your caucus bought his ridiculous claim that Pelosi & Co defenstrated him for opposing (supposedly) Dem health care reform, Glen Beck stepped in and allowed him to Massabate on TV, thus disassociating Republicans from the resulting mess.
194 To be fair she doesn’t have just one motive, she also wants shed loads of cash for selling us out.
197. Plato
Do bots (especially the early ZX81 based models) have mums?
198 Just to give you your worst nightmare, what if Palin won a Presidential election?
184
BenM. The man (and I use the term only loosely) who knows as much about climate science as he does about any other subject - f#ck all.
193:
Here’s Joanna Lumley in 1979 on Parkinson:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fqFl1HPrxOQ&
202 It would be the fittest occupant of the white house ever.
190.
Ah, selective europhobe whingeing about democracy!
A referendum in 1975 sensibly ratified our membership of the EU. Deal with it.
The EU is our plaything.
It cannot do - nor has it done (since 1972) - anything without British say-so.
Better then to view the European Union as a tool for furthering the British national interest in a globalised world of multiple rising superpowers, than squandering such a competitive advantage to assuage xenophobia-driven conspiracy theories about all the nasty foreigners allegedly bent on doing the UK in at all costs!
291 Hmm, well they no doubtedly have geeky ancestors with internet suntans and limited social skills
As someone whose Dad was a 1010101 type programmer and played with ticker-tape as a kid, I feel qualified to comment
Anecdote alert - my dad wrote all the programmes for the Boiler Makers Union pension/membership funds back in the 70s!
206 How much brain washing did you undergo? even the most dyed in the wool europhile doesn’t believe the EU is the UKs plaything.
Re:206. Is he mad?
Does he really believe this tripe?
209 No. He’s trying to wind us up.
Nice to see Lord Guthrie tearing Labour a new one.
Well done Ronnie Campbell, you must be proud.
188
Very much the point. The knee jerk reaction of the loony left to just blame Churchill for Galipolli when the main fault lay with the commanders on the ground simply shows their infantile attitude and lack of knowledge.
203.
Richard Tyndall, a man so lacking in self awareness he lectures others about their knowledge of the AGW science, while himself indulging in weird anti-AGW conspiracies and denying the huge wealth of data and evidence which underpins concerns about the gravest challenge humanity currently faces.
206..Wow BenM….Took a while to get that load of rubbish from the bunker. I live in the centre of this utopian paradise and can assure you that the UK does not run it..on the contrary we are considered to be the cash cow of Europe.And considered foolish for putting up with it…
I see Unite are trying to screw the country every which way (bankrolling Brown and Labour being the most devastating of course)….
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/travelnews/7416324/BA-strike-looms-as-peace-talks-collapse.html
198- Palin would have her most obvious advantages in caucus states like Iowa where enthusiasm is everything, but can she maintain enthusiasm for another two years, with no national platform other than some book tours? Also, I don’t think that states like South Carolina would be such a slam dunk for her. In conservative-oriented states with primaries rather than caucuses, a more standard-issue conservative candidate could rally a more broad range of GOP primary voters. Some people really love Sarah Palin, but there just aren’t enough of them in the GOP electorate to propel her to the nomination.
204 Andy JS - brilliant!
209. He’s doing a damned good job of making the case for withdrawal though. Don’t you think…..
206
“It cannot do - nor has it done (since 1972) - anything without British say-so.”
Ben you really, really ought to learn just a little bit about the subject before you start spewing your garbage all over the thread. It just makes you look even more silly than normal.
213
FOS
193 barry
Kevan Jones seat has been Labour for over a century. For Lumley to have a chance she would need the Cons and LDs to stand aside. Jones has 23k votes, LD\Con 13k; however at that level it could be game on.
212
I don’t think it was just the looney left y’know, criticism of Churchill was pretty widespread. As Churchill was a Liberal then, the Tories were rather critical at the time.
199- Yes, both Glenn Beck and Larry King gave Massa more than enough rope to hang himself! But once he floated the idea of rescinding his resignation and then didn’t follow through, that was the end of his credibility as far as I was concerned.
Still, it made for a fun week in politics!
206. “A referendum in 1975 sensibly ratified our membership of the EU. Deal with it.”
Actually it ratified membership of a European Economic Community, which is what the people want. Not the political union of the EU.
“It cannot do - nor has it done (since 1972) - anything without British say-so.”
Have you never heard of QMV?
202. I’ve thought of this from time to time. I’m convinced she could never win a general election, but we can hypothesise about Barack Obama being found in bed with a dead girl or live boy. I seriously wonder what would happen. I think she would struggle to get anything controversial through congress, although there’s always executive orders and foreign policy. If she did anything too crazy I suspect there would be a Yes, Minister-style resistance from the civil service, but who really knows.
Latest count information for Conservative seats and targets:
CONSERVATIVE HELD SEATS: confirmed to be counting on the night: 129/210 = 61%
TOP 117 CONSERVATIVE TARGETS: confirmed to be counting on the night: 78/117 = 67%
TOP 200 CONSERVATIVE TARGETS: confirmed to be counting on the night: 134/200 = 67%
(I’ll put info for the other parties up as well sometime).
213 Ah and here BenM shoots himself in the chest
Opinion on AGW from a troll compared to a paleo-scientist - let the games commence!
188. Indeed. Kemel Bey Ataturk was not only a great commander but an outstanding orator and statesman who did much to heal the wounds of Gallipoli and is revered in Oz and NZ. His speech on the Anzacs is truly superb and the equal of anything by Churchill, Mandela etc:
“Those heroes that shed their blood and lost their lives… you are now lying in the soil of a friendly country. Therefore rest in peace. There is no difference between the Johnnies and the Mehmets to us where they lie side by side here in this country of ours…
You the mothers who sent their sons from far away countries wipe away your tears. Your sons are now lying in our bosom and are in peace. Having lost their lives on this land they have become our sons as well.”
225 - Fancy sharing some popcorn? This will be fun.
225 Plato
well if he shot himself in the head it ain’t going to do much damage.
The Tory front bench is lightweight, their presentation is banal and facile and they lack an ideological base for their policies.I should have also said that Tories lack coherent and stable policies.
There is a mini bombshell on the horizon for the Cons in the shape of YBF who are providing training for Conservative Future. The YBF want liberal gun law and want environmental protesters shot.
Glad DC came across as cuddly on television, he might make a nice pet but I wouldn’t want him running the country.
228 Dumb and Dumber !
221 I think a lot of the criticism of Churchill at the time had to do with the perceived failure of the Royal Navy in delivering a knockout blow to the Kriegsmarine. The Scarborough Raid was a particualrly galling episode-Hipper really ought to have been sunk that day,
“No other mainstream European political party is besmirching its and its country’s reputation by cosying up with homophobes and anti-semite weirdos like the Tories have done.
by BenM March 10th, 2010 at 7:33 pm”
Are you sure, BenM? The SNP, Plaid Cymru and the UK Greens are part of the ALDE, the Alliance of European Liberals, which is helmed by Daniel Cohn Bendit, the German MEP.
As well as being an ex communist (like Alistair Darling, John Reid, Peter Mandelson, Bob Ainsworth, Charles Clarke, Stephen Byers, Alan Milburn, and our own dear Nick Palmer) Mister Bendit is a self confessed p@edophile:
“On several occasions certain kids would open my fly and start to stroke me. I reacted differently according to circumstances, but their desire posed a problem for me. I asked them: ‘Why don’t you play together? Why have you chosen me, and not the other kids?’ But if they insisted, I caressed them still.”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daniel_Cohn-Bendit
Has anyone told Caroline Lucas?
You might all need to be nice to OGH.
Burnley 0 - 1 Stoke
221 I think you need a really inspired commander (or overwhelming force) to pull off that kind of land/sea operation. It’s usually not worth trying it.
tim, Gabble, BenM and now Lilly Allen.
It really is a great representation of all that is New Labour.
223
Heath, address to the HofC 10 june 1971
We have said that as members of the enlarged community we would play our full part towards economic and monetary union.
Statement was made after summit with Pompidou.
So when the referendum was held, it was against the backdrop of already agreeing to economic and monetary union.
See Heath’s autobiography, chapter, fanfare for Europe page 375
paperback version.
229. Hello Lilly…are you going to set that to music…could be a chart topper..make a few bucks..
170. Nonsense! Brown’s line, and Labour’s line, is to follow the EU line to the very word. It does us absolutely no favours at all. Far better the Conservative line to utilise the EU for our own purposes and not be afraid to act unilaterally when it is advantageous. You know who we learned that lesson from? Oh so pro-European France. It is exactly what they do.
225.
Ooo - a “paleo” scientist you say (what is one of those by the way - many branches of science deal with old stuff)?!
Not a climate scientist then?
228
I think you’ll find lilly allens are first in line for YBF gunners
re 228 That sounds interesting. Have you got a link on that Lilly.
Plato
http://www.anenglishmanscastle.com/archives/008419.html
229
Yes, and after the nice things DC said about her on Titchmarsh.
235 Though of course, we were advised at the time of the Referendum that “no essential loss of sovereignty” was entailed.
However, I accept that we ought to have seen through that.
242 - Mike, here you go.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/mar/06/tory-madrasa-young-britons-foundation
241 BenM
are you a climate scientist Ben ?
228. SHE-BOT!
Don’t rise the Ben M bait at 207, chaps!
That’s the most obvious wind-up I can recall.
248.
No, that’s why I listen to those that are.
http://www.realclimate.org
http://www.ipcc.ch
213
Ben, try arguing about something you actually know anything about instead of repeating your lies and misinformation and someone might actually start to take you seriously.
If you want I can always give you a few lessons in Palaeoclimatology so you can make a blind stab at at least looking like you know something about the subject. Of course I reckon you are the sort of person who is just too thick to actually be able to understand even the basics of the subject but we can always live in hope, however misguided it might be.
251 BenM
there are a wide spectrum of views, and the “science” is still too young to make definitive statements. In science skepticism is always a good friend.
251. And never query any of it….the concentration guards used to to do that…
251. And never query any of it….the concentration guards used to to do that…
Labour MPs getting a good kicking on Sky News, clip of DC at PMQs followed by Lord Guthrie explaining how Treasury dealt badly with army during the good times when money was plentiful. Labour MPs not understanding the army.
252. So, enlighten us oh wise one.
What do YOU know about paleoclimatology? Can you point me to some of your peer-reviewed research? Has your research been reviewed by the IPCC? If it has, and judging by your tone you’re a contrarian, why do you think they ignored your evidence and went with the consensus view anyway?
I await your response.
223
No one was more critical of the outcome and his own part in it at the time than Churchill himself. The point is that with hindsight we can now see far more clearly what the real causes of the debacle were and the fact that one of the main causes of the failure and the massive loss of life was the poor leadership and inaction on the ground.
It is true that no plan survives first contact with the enemy but as is often the case the difference between a setback and a disaster is usually the ability of the field commanders to adapt to new circumstances.
257 *opens new bag of popcorn*
254: Most studies of concentration camp guards show that the knew exactly what was going on and often queried things. Don’t give them the excuse of ignorance.
97 “As one candidate in a safe Labour seat put it: “I haven’t got time to waste persuading Tory voters, I’ve got to get out my core.””"
Not sounding that close then is it?
26o.You got it in one Ralph..
258: You forget that the planning was rather inept with troops landing with in many cases no idea what was 100 yards inland, and with inappropriate equipment. For that WSC has to bear some of the blame.
104 - “FactCheck has established that Gordon Brown’s central claim that the defence budget has gone up every year is fiction.”
Brown the Clown caught lying again.
What a surprise
Seriously, where do Labour recruit these trolls?
They are total cannon fodder and embarrassing as well. Bring them on as far as I’m concerned
I don’t consider myself a right-winger but I think there is some truth in the claim that the NHS, as currently constituted, is grossly wasteful. There are far too many unnecessary projects, committees, campaigns, health trusts, etc. It has become bloated.
252.
there are a wide spectrum of views, and the “science” is still too young to make definitive statements.
You see, this is complete nonsense.
This is why the IPCC was set up by the UN - to review, on our behalf, all the available evidence to date and come to a conclusion that we mere mortals and policymakers can understand.
So your muddled appreciation of the state of the science has already been answered.
265 - I do wonder if they are secretly employed/handled by Tory HQ.
267..Only to you benboy..
266 Spot on.
Given how much cash has been splashed - how come patients are being ‘placed’ in broom cupboards??
On PB2 Double or Quits – Brown bets the farm on St George’s Day
http://politicalbetting.blogspot.com/2010/03/double-or-quits-brown-bets-farm-on-st.html
Today was the day in which I was convinced that the budget would be held paving the way for an immediate dissolution of Parliament tomorrow and the commencement of the shortest-possible 17-working-day campaign to Thursday April 8th, when Brown reasoned many Tory voters in marginal seats would be on holiday during Easter Week. Sorry. I got it wrong. My PB2 article explains why my July 2009 tip-off was right but I just applied too much logic to it.
NHS has billions of spending, committees, campaigns, trusts and projects yet the sick, old and vulnerable in mid-Staffs had to drink out of flower vases and sleep in their own filth because nobody on the wards saw fit to help them.
268 That’s the only logical conclusion, but hey…Gordon has the Midas touch
267 BenM
perhaps you need to re-assess some of the IPCCs own statements on its research; and the clear errors in some of its statements, such as the Himalayan glaciers were going to disappear within 30 years. Big organisations do not do 180 degree turns but like large ships take time to change coarse. As I said before skepticism is one’s best friend.
Truth is, the British electorate is being hoodwinked by the Prime Minister. He and his gang of ruthless operatives will stop at nothing to save themselves from defeat. They will use every dirty trick in the book, and are already doing so, to knock Mr Cameron off his stride and sow doubts in the receptive minds of uncertain voters. Yet the Tories dare not say so, for to suggest as much would be to admit their own incompetence. To complain about those nasty Labour bullies, or their friends at the BBC, would be about as useful as observing on the religious affiliation of the Holy Father.
Part of their problem is their own disbelief: they cannot quite believe that Mr Brown is getting away with it. They are overwhelmed by the sheer gall of a Prime Minister who could say, in a speech yesterday, “with me, what you see is what you get”, when the records show the precise opposite is true. They have read Andrew Rawnsley’s forensic exposition of the hatreds and deceptions that mark the Prime Minister’s career and cannot fathom why the rest of us cannot see the serial dishonesty, the political opportunism, the dangerous indecisiveness, the directionless moral compass, let alone his serial policy failures. How, they wonder, can we possibly be contemplating giving this guy another five years?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/benedict-brogan/7416590/Gordon-Brown-has-voters-in-a-trance-its-time-for-a-wake-up-call.html
Interesting that Cameron attacked Brown on defence spending today.
What is the Tory policy on departmental budgets? Is Cameron saying that Labour didn’t spend enough whilst the sun was shining?
272 - exactly, and I live in Mid Staffs.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/mar/06/tory-madrasa-young-britons-foundation
The establishment is demanding that Cameron disown this group. That’s fine, but why doesn’t the same opprobrium attach to the strong links between the left and Islamo-fascism? Double standards I’m afraid.
In cash terms the defence budget has gone up every year, check it out for yourselves.
Poor Plato abuses the name of a great philosopher.
The cannons on here are firing round shouldered blanks, sad really.
There is a whole world out there which does not depend on stats, UNS or having a flutter. Art, music, literature are essential things to feed the hungry soul. Politics is ephemeral.
206 ignoring your general ignorangce which is not only wide ranging and profound I feel that as someone who knows a little bit about the science of science and scientometrics you need to understand what science actually is -
anyone who believes science is based on “hard facts” and takes place in an objective domain of disinterested enquiry has clearly never been involved with any science research carried out by real scientists - in fact this popular belief merely confirms what a genius Durkheim was and has poor old Karl Poppegr spinning in his grave.
As a socialist you need charm to offset the repulsive controlling mindset that guides your actions - there are many lovely socialists, why not try and become one, rather than the whining ill informed obsessive you appear to be?
244. OK, I should have posted the text
The cock crows for the IPCC
Another error in the influential reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports has been identified. This one concerns the rate of expansion of sea ice around Antarctica… was brought to the IPCC Chapter 4 authors’ attention by several IPCC commenters.
And not corrected.
Three times the IPCC was warned that the obviously, blatantly idiotic global warming wildfire claims in the 3000 page AR4 report were actually idiotic. Three times the warnings were ignored.
That is two reports just this morning showing how the final IPCC report ignores inconvenient truths.
257 Ben: you have obviously appraised your own intellectual and educational abilities and decided that you are not qualified to make an independent evaluation of a scientific argument. I think you are right and applaud your openness on the subject.
By the way the IPCC represent the scientific consensus, so to talk about them “going with the consensus view anyway” is to commit yourself to a closed loop. Get your mum or probation officer to explain “circular argument” to you.
258 One of the (dis)advantages of a democracy is that the government has to delegate to the commanders in the field.
In a non-democratic State, the head of government and the war leader can be one and the same, which is fine, if you’re led by military genius like Napoleon, but disastrous if you’re not.
271 - It makes LOVELY reading for a Tory
263 read my Grandad’s short memoir of his time in the Gallipoli campaign in a letter to my Aunt recently; landing on beach some distance from destination, a delivery of hundreds of bicycles when they desperately needed food, water & armaments, being ordered to advance up hill against well entrenched Turks. It certainly reads as a badly planned and more importantly badly executed campaign, the blame is probably more on the actions of commanders than directly on WSC, but he chose them.
Gordon Brown’s incompetence in setting military budgets has been laid bare by the Tories today.
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/TheRedRag/~3/IddzLqPw1-s/browns-incompetence-in-setting-military.html
I want to raise a point which has been niggling away at the back of my mind for a while. It is fairly closely related to the ever more crucial debate between UNS and the Tories doing better in the marginals. So it probably does belong in the context of a discussion of Andy Cooke’s excellent analyses.
It has to do with the statistical concept of regression to the mean and its implications for polls carried out in marginal seats such as the Populus one published earlier this week.
If the results of elections and the state of public opinion at constituency level are to some extent determined by random factors, then these random factors might mean that Labour wins a marginal at one point in time which they would lose at some other time - say six months later - purely because of the way these random factors have panned out differently. Or an opinion poll carried out five years later might well be influenced similarly by random factors.
If you choose a group of seats in which to carry out your polling on the basis of Labour doing relatively well in 2005 - as Populus for example did by polling Tory Labour targets 50 to 150 - in which Labour had thus won reasonably well in in 2005 - you are choosing seats which to some extent are likely to have been disproportionately blessed by random events favourable to Labour at that time.
Almost by definition, given that they are random, such events are likely to be less favourable to Labour at another point in time - such as an opinion poll in 2010.
Hence results at a different point in time will be closer to the ‘true mean’ effect of these random factors - hence the phrase regression to the mean.
So when it is reported that the swing to the Tories is, say, 2% greater in these marginals than it is in the country as a whole, I wonder how much of this 2% might be a manifestation of ‘regression to the mean’. In other words a predictable reduction in the effect of the favourable random events which helped make these seats Labour in the first place - an unwinding of randomness if you like.
I am conscious of the fact that I could have explained this better. If there are any statisticians out there who could help settle whether this might be an operative factor - and explain it better - that would be great.
We really do seem to be in a position in which, if the polls don’t change much betwen now and the election, this difference of 2% or so could determine whether or not the Tories gain a majority. I’m tentatively raising the possibility that the empirical polling evidence for additional swing in the marginals might be a statistical artefact.
277. Lilly Airhead
Brown lied - even Channel 4 says so……
http://blogs.channel4.com/factcheck/2010/03/10/brown-gets-defensive-about-budgets/
257
Sigh
no Ben I don’t have the dubious honour of having had anything used by the IPCC. But since they have used a great deal of un-peer reviewed material (in breach of their own guidelines) including unpublished student dissertations and green presure group publicity articles I suppose there is always hope.
As someone else pointed out I do actually do palaeo-climate and palaeo-environment research for many different commercial and educational organisations including archaeological units, environmental studies and (shock horror!) mining and oil companies. Something that most of the longer serving members of PB.com are aware of. The difference between you and I being of course (apart from the fact I know what I am talking about and you don’t) that I don’t hide behind anonymity and so am more than happy to have any possible conflicts of interest right out there in the open for people to see. Thats what science is about you see. Open discussion and criticism.
As for published work that is mostly limited to contributions to archaeological studies, mostly specialising in the palao-climate and palaeo-environment of the late Roman and sub-Roman period. I do get namechecks here and there (you can find me in the back of the ‘Two Men in a Trench’ book if you are really bothered) but like most people in science I am not actually interested in getting my name in lights, just in making sure I get my job right and maybe learn something new about the past.
Of course if anyone wanted to know how little you really understand about climate science they would only have to look at your comment at 241 about ‘palaeo’-climatology not being proper climate science. How do you actually think we know whether anything that happens today is normal or not if not by ciomparing it with the past? I suppose Phil Jones at CRU shouldn’t be counted as a proper scientist because he uses palao-climate data?
Or did you think ‘climate’ is only somthing that happend in the last 20 years?
277 Lilly Allen
Please redeem yourself by talking about art, music and literature until the 10pm Yougov.
OGH mood improves:
Burnley 1-1 Stoke
279. The IPCC is to be reviewed by the national scientific academies:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8561050.stm
It’ll be a good opportunity for proponents or sceptics to accept a fair review: if you can’t accept the work of the science academies in carrying out a fair review then you have to just be an ideologue, whichever way they decide.
“…..In cash terms the defence budget has gone up every year, check it out for yourselves….”
That is what condemns Brown for all time. He has increased the defence budget at a rate lower than inflation. He has done this while British troops are being killed and maimed at horrific rates. Yet you are so stupid and ignorant that you think that this is some sort of trump card in the argument.
Brown is funding the armed forces with increases in the budget lower than inflation at a time when they are fighting a war. My friend a Royal Navy sailor is just about to deploy to Afghanistan with the Royal Marines. Why you ask? Because the casualties the marines have taken have left them so short of men they have to call upon sailors to do some of their jobs.
You should hang your head in shame, but won’t because you are too stupid to understand what you have actually written.
275- I was going to say that the Tories have brought a knife to a gunfight, but that isn’t it either. Rather, Labour and their allies are already firing away while the Tories haven’t yet even gotten up from their rocking chair to make their way to the knife drawer.
Man U are owning AC Milan if anyone is watching. 3-0 now…
277 That doesn’t cut the mustard if you’re asking the military to do so much more that the budget doesn’t cover them.
285 Glengyle
Interesting post but I don’t buy it at all.
Any averaging across a large number of seats will dissipate random effects.
Non-random factors which led to a disproportionate local bias towards any party in 2005 may or may not be present this time - especially given the number of incumbents standing down.
Ultimately, voters are naturally swingiest in the swinger seats.
293 - The Europa League is the competition that everyone is interested in these days.
Burnley FC and Brown will both go down in May. !!!!
Please let Alastair Campbell know !!!!!
292 One shouldn’t get too carried away with pessimism (and I have done, at times). Labour’s current ratings are about the same as they got in 1987, or the Conservatives got in 1997.
Did I see some chitter chatter regarding Churchill on here ..undoubtedly a great prime minister in wartime but by no means an example for subsequent peacetime prime ministers to follow
283
“the blame is probably more on the actions of commanders than directly on WSC, but he chose them.”
No he didn’t Ted. And this is where the criticism of Churchill really falls down. The field commanders - including the senior commander Hamilton - were chosen by Kitchener not Churchill.
296
Indeed I am.. Juventus coming up tomorrow !!!
277 Lilly Allen
What is your favourite book? Have you tried “The Pet Goat”? It is a favourite amongst political afficianados of a certain distinction.
275: ‘http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/benedict-brogan/7416590/Gordon-Brown-has-voters-in-a-trance-its-time-for-a-wake-up-call.html’
I read that article and felt genuinely frightened.
290 That is all very well. If only the review had been commissioned from an impartial starting point.
The Tories are going to win a working majority, just as Obama was always going to win the 2008 election. People need to stop panicking about the up and down in the polls when the underlying fundamentals are so much in the Tories favour.
297
I sincerely hope so being a Tory and Blackburn Rovers supporter
Real Madrid 1 Lyon 0 on Sky
277 ZNL won the election so were entitled to
a) Have defence spending as their lowest priority
or
b) Get involved in lots of wars
but both at once is a crime.
302. I think she probably idolises Squealer in Animal Farm, in fact probably al the bots are made to idolise it…..
Squealer
A small white fat porker who serves as Napoleon’s right hand pig and minister of propaganda. Squealer manipulates the language to excuse, justify, and extol all of Napoleon’s actions. Squealer limits debate by complicating it and he confuses and disorients, making claims that the pigs need the extra luxury they are taking in order to function properly, for example. However, when questions persist, he usually uses the threat of the return of Mr Jones, the former owner of the farm, to justify the pigs’ privileges. Squealer uses statistics to convince the animals that life is getting better and better. Most of the animals have only dim memories of life before the revolution; therefore, they are convinced.
In fact doesn’t this all remind you of Labour’s modus operandi?
Tories continue to slide according to the Kalman filter…
Labour now projected 3 seats ahead (Probabilistic UNS)
Con 281
Lab 284
LD 52
SNP 8
PC 5
Oth 2
NI 13
Lab 39 seats short of a majority.
http://hungparliament2010.blogspot.com/
Lead
http://www.titanictown.plus.com/hp/lead.png
275 Brogan is right. The tories need to get on TV and counter every single Labour lie. Day after day, brown is responsible for the dire state of the economy, brown is responsible for mass imigration and its effects on wages, brown is responsible for underequipping our troops, brown is responsible for widening inequality and broken society.
He will blame America, the tories, iceland, whatever is at hand and he will lie, lie, and lie again to keep power.
The tories need to remind people of gordons greatest disasters.
No more boom and bust
best placed
mcbride and brown’s smears
criminal labour mps facing expenses charges.
prison places
mid staffs
I am sure they can think of more.
Every single time a tory is on TV they need to incorporate this info into their replies to interviewers.
Also they need to say if past performance is the best indicator of future performance then look at the disaster brown has overseen and fear what damage he could do.
91 - Yes, Rasmussen, as much use as Yougov.
If you look at recent polls outside the trackers then you get a +3% for the President at the moment which looks about right (it’s +4% without Ras but with Gallup, with just Ras it’s the credibility bustingly different -8%).
I could have pointed out the moments when trackers have been very positive for the odd day in this way - but I didn’t.
Daily poll will be published here at 10pm. Who’ll be smiling - the blues, reds or yellows?
314 – Tough call, perhaps it’s the turn of the ‘Others’ tonight.
We had all the rest
It’s Balls…
Word reaches me that a young Whitehall Special Advisor Torsten Henricson-Bell is spending a lot of time in the relatively safe Labour seat that James Purnell is vacating.
Were uber-Blairite Purnell, who resigned from the cabinet in protest at Gordon Brown’s leadership, to be replaced by a friend of Ed Balls (former civil-servant Torsten began his journey into Labour politics while working for Mr Balls’ wife Yvette Cooper), well let’s just say the ironymeter might break.
Since late selections are as much a trial of who has the most strength within the Labour and trade union machine as anything (as the recent selection of John Cryer in Leytonstone and Jack Dromey in Birmingham Edrington show), it would also be a sign of who might triumph in any forthcoming leadership election. Not one that David Miliband will like I suspect.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/newsnight/michaelcrick/2010/03/stalybridge_and_hyde_interesti.html
314 - As someone who is colour blind, I’m going to say the greens and the magentas will be celebrating.
314 - Or all of the above as everyone reads different things into it?
295 wibbler
Thanks for the response. It has made me realise that what we are talking about is a selection effect. Those seats which formed e.g. Populus’s sampling frame - Tory targets 50 to 150 - qualified for this selection in part, and it only needs to be in small part, because of favourable random factors in 2005. These random factors aren’t as likely to be as favourable now.
Plus there is a good discussion on e.g. Wikipedia: Google Wiki regression mean.
295 wibbler
Thanks for the response. It has made me realise that what we are talking about is a selection effect. Those seats which formed e.g. Populus’s sampling frame - Tory targets 50 to 150 - qualified for this selection in part, and it only needs to be in small part, because of favourable random factors in 2005. These random factors aren’t as likely to be as favourable now.
Plus there is a good discussion on e.g. Wikipedia: Google Wiki regression mean.
314. I think this could be a “Red Night” with the Con lead down to 3% :O
312 - do you not think that one reason for the current Tory troubles is that they’ve gone too big on the “evil Brown” stuff, and voters are starting to switch off from it?
I think the soldier’s letter in the Sun might have marked a bit of turning point on that score.
314: I guess the yellows will smile if they don’t give up more than 2 of the points they picked up yesterday. I can’t see the blues smiling until the number begins with a 4. The reds will smile until their numbers drop below 30.
314: Nothing from arch ramper Whelan
314…I dunno if it will be Blue or Red celebrating but I cannot believe that Yellow will have anything to cheer about - down 3% to 17% I reckon
Oh they’ll love Torsten in Stalybridge!
Mike - what’s it like to be a political tease?
My Yougov prediction
C37 L32 LD19
Re: Gallipoli, note that Chuchill repeated his mistake in the next world war, namely Anzio. Where once again, a risky plan that MIGHT have worked ended up as a bloody disaster due to poor leaderhip and lack of adequate resources on the ground.
BTW, it really isn’t enough to simply charge others with being “ignorant” UNLESS you are prepared to marshall a factoid or two. Makes YOU look like the ignoramus.
312. Voreas you mean remind them of these?
-22,500 of debt for every child born in Britain
- 111 tax rises from a government that promised no tax rises at all
- The longest national tax code in the world
- 100,000 million pounds drained from British pension funds
- Gun crime up by 57%
- Violent crime up 70%
- The highest proportion of children living in workless households anywhere in Europe
- The number of pensioners living in poverty up by 100,000
- The lowest level of social mobility in the developed world
- The only G7 country with no growth this year
- One in six young people neither earning nor learning
- 5 million people on out-of –work benefits
- 8 million economically inactive
- Missing the target of halving child poverty
- Ending up with child poverty rising in each of the last three years instead
- Cancer survival rates among the worst in Europe
- Hospital-acquired infections killing nearly three times as many people as are killed on the roads
- Falling from 4th to 13th in the world competitiveness league
- Falling from 8th to 24th in the world education rankings in maths
- Falling from 7th to 17th in the rankings in literacy
- The police spending more time on paperwork than on the beat
- Fatal stabbings at an all-time high
- Prisoners released without serving their sentences
- Foreign prisoners released and never deported
- 7 million people without an NHS dentist
- Small business taxes going up
- Business taxes raised from among the lowest to among the highest in Europe
- Tax rises for working people set for after the election
- The 10p tax rate abolished
- And the ludicrous promise to have ended boom and bust
- A ludicrous claim to have saved the world
- Our gold reserves sold for a quarter of their worth
- Our armed forces overstretched and under-supplied
- Profitable post offices closed against their will
- One of the highest rates of family breakdown in Europe
- The ‘Golden Rule’ on borrowing abandoned when it didn’t fit
- Police inspectors in 10, Downing Street
- Dossiers that were dodgy
- Electoral turnout down by 15%
- Habeus Corpus compromised
- Mandelson resigning the first time
- Mandelson resigning the second time
- Mandelson coming back for a third time
- Bad news buried
- CCTV everywhere
- Personal details lost
- An election bottled
- A referendum denied
321. But you’d be better off asking the cat than this useless daily poll.
199 - Socrates - agree that the primary timetable helps someone like Palin, maybe the Republicans need to change it quick if they want to stop her being at least one of the last two standing. Pawlenty isn’t even liked in his own state which tells you something about how he will be perceived under the spotlight.
SSI,
The only mistake at Anzio was ‘Generalismo’ Mark Clark. Surely you septics are mature enough to admit your mistakes…!
4-0 now…
330 - Ah, I see you mentioned education
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1256895/They-read-write-think-world-owes-living-Tesco-directors-damning-verdict-school-leavers.html
“They can’t read, can’t write and think the world owes them a living: Tesco director’s damning verdict on Britain’s school-leavers”
5 more years?
give them that and schooleavers will have trouble counting that far…….
Who do we blame for the Dieppe Raid of 1943?
330 Oh really…I’m no fan of Brown but some of these are a bit sketchy…OK jsfl so what’s the solution?
Brogan might be right about what el Torees should ideally do but I don’t think they have the personnel or the mentality to match the combined goblins-Mandy-Campbell axis of evil. I think they should be all calm and fluffy and talk about the deficit 24/7: someone asks about Ashcroft talk about the deficit, someone asks about SamCam talk about the deficit, someone asks about fruit talk about the deficit. Role-play a calm, united front of talk-your-deficit machines and see if the goblins explode into bits of black rock like the devil in Time Bandits.
335 school leavers even….
Until someone can can come up with a serious reason to believe You Gov’s new methodology……………………….. and its daily jumps, I think I’ll stick with ICM.
Does anybody know if Pickles ever got a reply regarding his letter to Brown about the 50K slush fund?
If not is there any requirement for Brown to actually reply? Or is it just expected of a Right Honourable Gentleman?
YouGov - goodness knows anymore…
336
Some serious bad planning there. IIRC they tried to simulate it off the coast of Dorset>>??? and it was a disater.
Someone said “Sweden gets by on the backs of US taxpayers.”
Then a lefty on the last thread said “I beg pardon? Sweden is neutral. During the Cold War, there were times when it was as close to Cuba as to the US.”
When Edmund Burke said “The only thing evil men need to triumph is for good men to do nothing“, he was probably talking about neutral Sweden.
Sweden profits by neutrality because other more courageous countries make a stand.
Sweden is probably the kind of person that wouldnt clean out the kitty litter because he knows someone else would always do it.
335. Indeed in 5 years the Directors won’t be able to read or write.
No doubt it will be part of hairbrained Hattie’s equality drive (breaking the glass ceiling for the uneducated)….
343.. even disaster…
330. Vote Tory. Simples!!
Re school leavers. They would have started school in, what, 1998?
How long would you say it takes to turn round a nation’s ruined education system? How long would you give the Tories on that front to implement their. Erm. What are their policies again?
337 so what’s the solution?
Get rid of Labour (for a generation at least)…..
Don’t ask me about who will be smiling?
We just have a good laugh at 10 o clock each night!
Last night I came out from seeing Alice in Wonderland at 10 o clock, i looked at the poll and thought I had fallen down the hole with Alice!
347. Simples minded!!!
The Cons have to be up - they can’t get their worst YouGov poll rating since 2007 two nights in a row.
Can they?
350. I know. Yougov polls these days seem to come from NeverNeverland and Peter Pan produces them!
322 no, I think reminding people of Gordon Browns record of saying and doing stupid, wasteful, disasterous and dirty things is right.
10p tax is another goodun.
330 yes exactly, people need to be reminded as Brown is trying his best to make them forget and deflect by constantly screaming wrong.
I’m smiling at the moment. But it’s nothing to do with the polls.
Front pages (only Indy so far)
http://www.politicshome.com/uk/article/6462/front_pages_thursday_11th_march_2010.html
Very interesting Indy it is too. Clegg’s tests for a hung Parliament, together with £15bn of Lib Dem cuts to be announced.
I am an x labour voter and for the 1st time in my life I can say I am proud to vote Tory, we must get rid of brown and randy mandy
Stoke avoid defeat on the road! Or Burnley gain a vital point. Take your pick…
Dear XXX
The Times today carries an extensive analysis of a poll in the key marginal seats by Populus which puts Labour and the Tories neck and neck at 38 per cent. It is confirmation of a spate of recent articles that shows underlying the headlines the Tories have not sealed the deal with the electorate. It also excludes the 50 most marginal seats which are assumed to go Tory. But we know that the Unite membership in those 50 seats far exceeds the majority being defended. If it is game on in the 100 quoted, it must be battle joined in the 50 they have excluded.
This is all the more reason why we need to build on the momentum from last week’s record number of calls made to Unite members in the key seats. There’s another “Talk Thursday” this week and regional phone banks have been organised across the UK for this Saturday. Please get involved and make those “Two calls a day to keep the Tories away”.
If you are unsure as to where your regional phone bank is this Saturday or are having problems gaining access to the virtual phone bank, please contact me or my colleague Andrew Brady at andrew.brady@unitetheunion.org
All the best,
Charlie Whelan
Political Director
http://callingengland.blogspot.com/2010/03/labours-in-trouble.html
330 Actually I would love posters with that on it with the phrase
“Brown’s britain” and then the list and then “Don’t let him add any more, Vote Conservative”
337…it’s easy to say “Get rid of Labour” jsfl but for what? What do the Tories have to offer and how’s it gonna be financed? The inspirational “Vote for Change” slogan epitomises their total lack of policies to improve anything. “Vote for Change” - I suspect change is all we’re gonna have left in our pockets once that spiv Osborne has handed the rest to his millionaire chums.
http://callingengland.blogspot.com/2010/03/labours-in-trouble.html
The supplementary to today’s YouGov is about whether Labour will improve education if they win.
Remember. Public services is Labour’s magic bullet.
322 - obviously the Tories can and should attack Labour’s record. Their mistake has been that they’ve gone so personal and at times downright nasty against one individual. That turns voters off.
362 David Roe
And whatever people say about Yougov, the supplementaries are weighted too, unlike the Newsnight ComRes.
363. Well there doesn’t come nastier than Brown and his henchmen.
360. slogan epitomises their total lack of policies to improve anything.
Really is that right? Well when you’ve finished parroting a Labour apparatchik you might want to read this lot.
http://www.conservatives.com/Policy.aspx
You really should stop taking what the liberal left media and Labour politicians say for granted. They are making a fool out of you…..
And Real Madrid go out 1-1 with Lyon
365 - Andy Coulson?
363 yes you are right labour have sought to portray attacks on Brown’s behaviour in government as attacks on a poor disabled man. I am sure they will attempt to again, but it is fairly easy to turn that round, by saying twe are sticking up for the British people while Gordon is pitying himself.
Interesting ideas
http://www.snptacticalvoting.com/2010/03/george-young-five-point-plan.html
368 Andy coulson is nowhere near Brown/Whelan/Mcbrides league.
Oh gosh,
YouGov VI poll completed. Other questions included:
# Tobin tax,
],
],
# Maths (using a holiday question),
# Labour’s policies [ :vomit: ],
# Lib-Dhimmies policies [
# Conservative policies [ :shrugs: ],
# Road maintenance,
# TV ownership [
# Terrestrial TV viewing [ :so-eighties: ], and
# How would you like your £50 payout delivered? [I’ve already said it should be made to the Royal British Legion.
Still only 300 points left. Maybe when Cammers stands for re-election as FM-England I may be able to see YouGov honour it’s - :cough: - promise….
NASTY PARTY TO LOSE
Samantha Cameron to show human side of her ‘Tory boy’
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2010/mar/10/samantha-cameron-tv-interview-mcdonald
At the rate of narrowing of the gap we should start seeing polls with Labour ahead, oh, anytime soon…
371 Especially not all of them working together - used to be the goblins spent most of their time attacking their own people.
16 West Ham 28 -9 27
17 Wolves 28 -25 24
18 Burnley 29 -31 24
19 Hull 28 -33 24
20 Portsmouth 28 -23 19
What odds West Ham to go down?
I don’t need to follow links to Tory websites to know what they stand for - they’re gonna look after their own …big business, millionaires, fox-hunters and spivs
Cashcroft, Coulson, Cameron
Can’t win IMHO
378 They won’t be looking after anyone as there won’t be any money.
375. I’ve no doubt that Yougov will show Labour ahead and perhaps Comres and Mori (all the pollsters who’ve f*cked up their methodologies in the last 5 years). However, when ICM start showing labour leads then the country needs to worry..
378
spad nonsense.
375 - Don’t hold your breath. Unless YouGov find about 15 per cent Labour IDs.
The prince of darkness “randy mandy” puppet on a string “brown”
I am from stockton south a swing seat, Tories lost in 1997, word has it, we could win it back or worse case noc come the election and its 123 on the Tory hit list, so I’d say some of the polls are wrong
Hospital consultants, GPs and senior civil servants were furious last night after being told that their pay would be frozen this year while MPs enjoy a 1.5 per cent rise.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/science/politics/article7057415.ece
379. Thanks for you opinion. It is valued…somewhere!
378. No ignorance is bliss for the likes of you isn’t it…..
378 - Even if they do, they’ll STILL do a better job for Mr Average than Labour.
371 - I disagree. I think it’s blatantly obvious that Team Cameron Coulson is every bit as cynical and nasty as Team Brown Balls.
It’s not edifying. But it’s politics.
New thread up.
Why are you Tories so bleedin’ intolerent ?….the party’s changed? …don’t think so
“Does anyone really think that if the budget is received badly and the polls immediately afterwards turn against him, so he is trailing by about 15% again, that he will call an immediate election?”
thats why the budget will be a propaganda budget.
333, FT - Marc Clark was ONE of the Anzio mistakes, but certainly NOT the only one.
For one, in “Anzio 1944: The Beleaguered Beachhead” (Osprey) Stephen Zaloga states that, “While there was little question that a amphibious operation wsa the solution to the stalemate in front of the Gustav line” he goes on to note that there was in fact a very severe shortage of LSTs available after Salerno.
Zaloga also notes that, “No Allied commander played a greater role in promoting Operation Shingle [the Anzio landing] than Prime Minister Winston Churchill. The landing plans had largely fallen out of favor until mid-December 1943 when Chuchill latched up it as a means to reinvigorate the Italian campaign and seed along the liberation of Rome. Churchill’s considerable political influence was the major reason why the operation proceeded in spite of the misgivings of tactical commanders.”
Further note that the main Allied commander on the ground at Anzio was Major General John P. Lucas USA, of whom Zaloga writes, “the bloody autum fighting in Italy left him exhausted and depressed. He was skeptical about the prospects for Operation Shingle from the outset, and his known aversion to the plan led to his exclusion at key conferences involved in planning the operation, including Churchill’s January [1944] meeting at Marrakesh. In his diary he [Lucas] noted that, ‘This whole affair had a strong odor of Gallipoli and apparently the same amateur was still on the coaches bench’” Zaloga goes on to say that, “Lucas made no secret of his forebodings about the operation, which led some officers to urge him to resign, and others to recommend that [Gen. Sir Harrold] Alexander fubd another commander. Alexander refused, arguing that it would be a mistake to do so with the operation so near.”
SO the argument that the disaster at Anzio was the sole responsiblity of Marc Clark does NOT hold water.
389 There is plenty of actual evidence against Brown see rawnsleys book, see redrag etc
What evidence have you got for Caulson. None as far as I can see.
So shockingly enough a smear from a labour supporter.
just an observation: why is it that a fair chunk of the rightwing people on this site when they disagree with a leftwing person seem to feel the need to resort to personal attacks? Can’t you argue with facts? Why do you need to be abusive? And no, I am not a Labour supporter.
I missed something - was Cameron on a TV show?