Will ICM remain “The Gold Standard”?
March 10th, 2010
Look at how out of line it was in March 1997
One of the phrases you hear time and time again about ICM’s polling is that it is “The Gold Standard”.
This came from its performance at the 1997 general election when it was wildly out of line with everybody else and ended up being proved right. Just look at the panel for almost exactly thirteen years ago ahead of the election that brought Tony Blair to power.
Those were, of course, the days of grand Labour overstatement in the polls when ICM was the one firm that sought to do something radical following the polling disaster five years earlier.
The answer devised by the then boss, Nick Sparrow, was something that I’m sure most PBers are familiar with - past vote weighting to ensure a politically balanced sample.
Sparrow, in tandem with Professor John Curtice, argued that the days when you could rely in standard demographic weightings were over.
The result was that the firm began producing figures that were so out line with the rest as can be seen above. In their pre-election poll the firm did something that was unique in all the pre-election polls at every single general election since 1987 - it understated Labour but still came top.
A question as we look at ICM’s latest output showing the biggest Tory share and lead is whether it is still “the gold standard” or has that mantle moved on to others?
Only a few more weeks to wait.
Mike Smithson
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The first question in PMQs was about the fear that the vast majority of soldiers serving in Iraq and Afg. would not be able to vote in forthcoming election. Brown promised that they would. We’ll see.
I think so.
Under the golden rule (or is it iron law - I cant remember) surely the pollster that shows the biggest Tory lead is on track to be the most accurate
re No - the golden rule is that the one with Labour in the least favourable position has historically been the most accurate.
555 “The Labour parties last 4 leaders all were in the CND. Including most of their present MPs.”
For the post of EU foreign minister, Gordon Brown appointed Baroness Ashton. Aside from being made a peer by Tony Blair, the most noticable item on her thin cv is she was a senior CND commander.
Baroness Ashton, is of course, married to ‘the’ Peter Kellner.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6945940.ece
perhaps it is all coming together now(?)
I don’t think yougov are helping by doing a daily tracker under their current methodology.
ICM is no 1 until proven otherwise.
Yes - And let’s hope ICM show a Tory lead of 20% on polling day.
I am of the opinion that YouGov and Angus Reid will be wrong.
Mori will only be right by accident.
So yes, probably.
1 - of course Brown will make sure they vote - or at least someone will vote on their behalf….through the miracle of our postal vote system
I’d certainly give them more weight than others, although in the frantic world of 24 Hour News cycles and round the clock betting, their two or three polls per month aren’t enough to satisfy the addicts puffing at the poll pipe.
re 8 The question is - which of AR or YouGov be closest with the Labour share?
Like you say Mike, only a few weeks to wait. Can’t come soon enough and ICM seems more stable than yougov so I am minded to say yes.
O/T I love this policy statement on arrse forums
http://www.arrse.co.uk/Forums/viewtopic/t=145638.html
I think Populus may end up being the most accurate ones this time around.
11. Based on real votes last May ? AR.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8081729.stm
“According to the BBC’s projections, the Conservatives garnered 38% of the national vote with Labour falling to a historic low of 23%.
The Lib Dems polled an estimated 28% of the vote, with other parties on 11%. “
If there really are 10 pollsters covering the campaign then obviously there is a fair chance that ICM’s pre election poll wont be closest to the actual result. That shouldnt necessarily be the be all and end all for assessing their (and others’) methodology though.
Perhaps Angus Reid will be the Greg Rusedski of the polling companies: Canadian outsider comes along and shows the soft, complacent home players how to do it.
Whilst You Gov may get the award for quantity its ICM for quality -until the election anyway.
Suspect they are still slightly overstating Lanour however.
12: I do like:
2. All of the major parties employ ’sock-puppets’ to trawl internet forums posting rumours and rebuttals. Our advice to these maggots? F*** off and leave us alone, we aren’t interested. Any that are identified will be banned.
11 - Mike, given the volatility in the polls, and the shares of the vote, is it time to start averaging the polls/shares/leads?
Sorry to be OT so quick but I just can’t stop laughing at the last paragraph
“The BBC has turned down a request for Gordon Brown to appear on Match Of The Day 2.Downing Street had approached the programme’s producers about the Prime Minister appearing on the show to talk about England’s bid to host the 2018 World Cup.However, the request was rejected due to the timing of the appearance.
A BBC spokesperson told the Guardian: “We made the judgement it wouldn’t be appropriate in the run-up to the election.”
The BBC must follow strict guidelines about impartiality in the months before a general election and has even pushed back this year’s series of The Apprentice because it features Labour peer, Alan Sugar.”
http://uk.tv.yahoo.com/blog/article/410503/
Who knows?
I have most faith in ICM though.
Almost all the others are either too new, or have changed their methodology too much.
Unconfirmed rumours reach me that Labour’s election campaign will focus upon the methods used in the Commons today.
For example, the unemployed will be blamed for not having jobs due to being Conservative voters. The answer to every question will be Lord Ashcroft.
Zum beispiel: “Why has the Prime Minister seen the national deficit reach unprecedented proportions?”
PM: “Because I don’t have as much money as Lord Ashcroft. If he had paid full UK taxes on his overseas income that alone would be enough to pay off the entire national debt in a mere 3,145 years.”
Opinion polls are taken far too seriously. Depending on who you believe, the Tories have a 2 to 12 percentage point lead, are on 36% to 40%, Labour are on 26% to 34% and the Lib Dems are on 16% to 21%. Rather than endlessly analyse polls, treat them as part of the process of sniffing the air.
I’ve always had a lot of regard for YouGov as they have often got it pretty much in the ball-park, despite their “recidivist Labour overstating”. ICM have the longest history and have also been pretty correct. Finally one shouldn’t forget Populus as they seem to broadly track ICM.
The big question is how with the pollsters cope with a falling Labour support. Since 1992, they have generally had only to deal with a Tory party in the doldrums subject to a few mid-term closings. This is the first GE where the situation has reversed. The question is, does their methodology work with these changed circumstances?
18 - yes, that’s the bit I liked. On a serious note I hope Mike has something in place if Pb.com get’s inundated with sp’s - there you go Mike, arrse have a ready made policy for you
11 - AR
YouGov seems to think Labour will poll near 2005. That’s laughable.
FPT 531: GIN
YouGov: Why was LD +4%?
The regional splits, in one day give:
London: LD 23% from 17%
Rest of South: LD 24% from 18%
North: LD 18% from 13%
Scotland: LD 23% from 17%
Also for London:
Conservatives: 32% from 45%
What happens if the pollsters are wrong like 1992?
Will anyone employ them again?
ICM were the gold standard 13 years ago. A pbc thread about a month ago (?) had a list of the last polls conducted by seven polling firms prior to the 2005 election and from memory, ICM were only fifth best, measured by cumulative error for Con, Lab and LD scores.
27. Seriously - how much are NI paying for this ?
There is now growing evidence that the only way the Conservatives can win big (majority of 30+) is if they can get back the voters that are right-of-centre but have drifted off to not voting, voting UKIP, other small parties, etc.
The Conservatives have gone too far to the left and are alienating the right-wing majority of the country. They want low taxes, low government, tough policies on law & order, low immigration and a fair, open and democratic system of government and culture.
The consensus from many experts on the last 3 elections is that the Conservatives lost because several million of their voters did not turn out to vote.
The Labour government has had a negative rating of more than -40% for more than 5 years. It is astonishing that they got a majority at the last election (especially given Labour lost the popular vote in England by a decisive margin).
The Conservatives have to enthuse and motivate the right-wing majority. How are they going to do this? Take newspapers like the Mail and the Times - these should be 100% behind the Conservatives given the views of their readers and most of their journalists. The Conservatives need to reach out more because this election is no longer about tinkering around, it is about the basic economic survival of the country, removing the most Stalinist PM we have ever had, and repairing the damage done by Labour.
There are three steps. Let the people know that it is ok to feel angry about the state of the country. Second give them hope that things can get better, and will get better under a Conservative government.
There are 3 million voters that have sat on their hands for the last decade. It is time that they were given a reason to turn out and vote.
28 - “Will anyone employ them again?”
God yes. They are not particularly employed for their accuracy. (As the most accruate pollster pre 2005 GE quickly found out!)
And a third step. The Conservatives need to offer a referendum on the EU, to recover the damage done by reneging on the referendum on the Lisbon treaty which caused many potential voters to defect to UKIP, etc.
Just done an AR poll and a Yougov, both VI.
31 - You mean a core vote strategy that worked so well in 2001?
33 - I was wondering how long it would take you to realise that the Tories need to do what you desperately want them to do in order to regain power.
34. Hope you aren’t weighted down
28 - There will be a gap in the market.
DAVEROE/MADEUPONTHESPOT polling company will be incorporated.
I’ll use my own special weighting formula based on eye colour, hair colour and the Daily Mirror readership figures.
My latest poll:
Con 41
Lab 29
LD 18
24. Absolutley agree.
PMQs
Gordon (Memory Man) Brown has difficulty finding answer to question.
Ed Balls: Stifled cough
Brown; “Ashcroft”
You can’t see the join.
26: not that laughable really. 2005 was also a low point for Labour because of Iraq, with ardent lefties defecting to the LDs, knowing full well that Howard had no chance of winning. Having protested in 2005, they will surely return to the red corner. Plus you will have those who couldn’t be bothered in 2005 and didn’t vote at all coming back to Labour knowing that a Tory Govt isn’t a fanciful prospect. All that will be offset by those not influenced by Iraq defecting this time because they’re fed up with Gordon/Labour generally. That latter shift will surely outperform the former, but it may result in Labour being not far off 2005.
Coupled with the inept (or even non-existent) Tory campaign, and their reluctance to put the boot into a failed Government as Blair did pre-97, I think a Labour share of 35% min is perfectly attainable, and will be attained.
If you want to support our service personnel re voting in the GE there is a no10 petition here
http://petitions.number10.gov.uk/ServiceVotes/
38, ha. You should get Mike to make a silly 1 April thread featuring your new polling company and see if the BBC or Sky or suchlike get conned.
“A new poll shows the Conservatives have a 39 point lead…”
27. Such swings do not occur in a day amongst real people. It takes years for people to change their views and voting intention.
Something is seriously wrong with Yougov - it is all over the place - up and down like a yoyo.
Please can the newspapers switch back to ICM - the pollster achieving the longest period of accuracy in their predictions.
Yougov are now out of line with nearly everyone else. ICM are putting Labour no higher than 30%/29%.
30 - It doesn’t matter whether it is right or not. The Sun is mentioned on nearly every news bulletin as the source of the latest poll.
If and when it is proved to be a pile of nonsense, there will be plenty of new politics stuff to stick on Page Two to replace these daily polls.
Much as I wonder about the polling methods and the results, I think the commissioning of the polls was a bloody masterstroke.
38 - I’d love to see Ave It’s polling.
Tories 105%
Labour 0%
Lib Dems - 5%
42 - I’m very confident my own polls will be at least as accurate as the median pollster.
31: I almost got a stiffy reading that…
42: Oh god..April 1. I think I’ll take an entire break from the internet that day.
AR is very likely to show a decent jump in the Labour share this week, so guessing what their end Labour share will be isn’t easy.
Mike, I’ve got a post in moderation, not sure why could you release it please.
Ta
51 - ignore , it’s now free.
Very disappointed that the Beeb has deprived us of a Gordo appearance on MOTD2.
Could have been comedy gold - and he could have talked us through his supposed all-time favourite football moment, Gazza’s goal against Scotland in Euro 96.
52, I’d like Brown to do some Six Nations coverage. And for Martin Johnson to spear tackle him.
re 19. No - I am strongly opposed to the whole concept of poll averaging - a debate that we have had here at length in the past.
The pollsters are just too different. It is like weighing a batch of ten apples, pairs and bananas and then producing a number on the average weight per fruit.
And as Andy Cooke has shown the average is far from being the most accurate.
Just watching Nick Robinson’s review of PMQs and he said that everytime Labour have delivered a financial statement their poll ratings have dropped straight afterwards. Do we have any polling evidence on that?
53 - I’d like to see Gordon Brown get step laddered during a line out, and then get dropped.
52 - I remember Mrs Thatcher appearing on Swapshop and commenting on the new singles. For some reason I can remember that she made approving noises about a Thrashing Doves single.
Someone somewhere should bring out a compilation of the best politicians’ appearances on non-political shows. It would be compulsive viewing from behind a cushion in the same way as Borat.
http://www.icmresearch.co.uk/media-centre-polls.php
Link to their polls in 2010
55 - No averaging by me then.
re 56. This links poll ratings to specific events like financial statements.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_in_the_United_Kingdom_general_election,_2010
What was ICM last lead?
EU’s Ashton sets out diplomatic vision
The EU’s foreign policy chief, Catherine Ashton, says Europe has a “once in a generation opportunity” to build a robust new diplomatic service.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/8559250.stm
mmmmm
[23] - Depending on who you believe, the Tories have a 2 to 12 percentage point lead, are on 36% to 40%, Labour are on 26% to 34% and the Lib Dems are on 16% to 21%.
But this is, actually, very useful information! A large spread is not to be decried, it is a statistical inevitability, and we can compare the large spread with the large spread last time. Remember, it is the trend and not the actual numbers that are important.
The spread last time, of course, gave Labour a lead of up to double figures. Now, not a single poll does. The change in the polls is so great that even with a huge spread they don’t even overlap with the spread of the pre-2005 GE polls. This is why I still think Labour are headed for a kicking.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/datablog/2009/oct/21/icm-poll-data-labour-conservatives
All their polls from 1984 till Feb 2010
They can’t read, can’t write, keep time or be tidy: Tesco director’s verdict on school-leavers
Lucy Neville-Rolfe, the retailer’s director of corporate and legal affairs, says school-leavers have basic problems with literacy and numeracy and that many also have “what you might call an attitude problem”. She adds: “They don’t seem to understand the importance of a tidy appearance and have problems with timekeeping … Some seem to think that the world owes them a living.”
Neville-Rolfe also says: “There are growing questions over various aspects of our exam system.” She adds that grade inflation makes it difficult to identify the highest achievers: “There seems to be a fair amount of evidence now that [exams] are getting easier and failing to stretch people. The proportion of firsts and 2:1s has risen enormously so it’s much rarer to get a 2:2 than a first. People who are clever today are achieving the grades of the very clever a couple of decades ago.”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/mar/10/tesco-director-slates-school-leavers
58 - yes, I remember that too as a small child. Saturday Superstore I think (wasn’t Mike Read a famous Tory?)
She was asked questions by the audience and viewers at home (can you imagine Brown doing this?), and I thought at the time that surely she wouldn’t appear on the “Pop Panel” at the end, like other studio guests did each week, but lo and behold, she did!
64, about half that Tory lead spread is down to YouGov. The rest are tightish (7-10).
58. Thatchers were the most hilarious simply because she simply couldn’t take her Prime Minister/hectoring hat off in any of them (I say this as someone who rather admires her).
There was her cringeworthy Yes Minister ’sketch’ and I distinctly remember some kid’s programme where a young girl asked her in a phone-in what would happen if the country was nuked. I remember her, in the face of repeated questioning saying something like “I will be in a bunker in London, dear, working out how our country should respond” in the most patronising way imaginable. It was hilarious.
Another question I would like answered would Labour have had a landslide if the polls were all at 13%. i.e would more tories have voted.
34 Me too by AR - lots and lots about Afghanistan.
66. She sounds like a Tory (c) Labour.
What happens if we go back into recession in the middle of the election campaign?
As far as i can see, having had a really good trawl of all the data - from all the economic data that has come out since the beginning of the year - things look bad for Q1 2010.
Despite being described by the BBC and pundits as “unexpected” (aS in unexpectedly bad, as in today’s Jan manufacturing figs) all the economic indicators so far this year show that we’ve had a less good first quarter than last quarter 2009, ( whichalso descrbibed as “unexpectedly” bad) and indeed that 0.1% growth may be revised back into recession shortly.
I guess the point that i am making is that these figures are not “unexpected” as such but quite to be expected given the depth of the mess we are in , and furthermore, the Q1 2010 figs will show us quite firmly back in recession.
Anyone disagree or can point to a reason why i might be wrong?
55 It’s not all apples and oranges though is it? All the polls publish their output in the same dimension. They are predicting exactly the same thing in theory. The problem in practice is that they are rubbish, full of noise and systematic errors.
A more accurate analogy is measuring the weight of an apple using 5 different technologies. If four technologies are rubbish they will obscure the best result.
12.Kristin,
Mike, have you, or has anyone else, devised a formula for calculating exactly which one of the 10 (or whatever the number is) Pollsters is the most accurate on election day? Points off for each percentage under or over or whatever, weighted according to the significance of the vote? e.g. 100 points off if a pollster under- or over-estimates the Conervative vote in the high thirties, but only 25 points off if they make the same error re: the Welsh Nationalists (who will get less than 3% of the national vote.)
I haven’t explained this very well, but I can forsee a lot of companies all claiming to be the “best” for one reason or another. The pb.com trophy could become the benchmark for this particular sub-sector of the industry. Imagine a real trophy, incribed with an insult from a passing Cornish sex memoirist, and a picture of a giant haddock…..
Feature and video clips of Thatcher on Saturday Superstore - 1987
http://www.saturdaymornings.co.uk/features/thatcher.shtml
Classic stuff, glad to have the reminder of this.
Imagine Brown responding to the child’s nuclear bunker question - the Nokias would be flying…
73, presumably Nick Robinson will tell us all that this is great news for Brown.
I wonder at the correlation between economic confidence and the polls. Any clever chaps got thoughts on this?
The diehard Labour loathers and pro-Tory folk will back Cameron come hell and high water. Floaters may conclude Labour have failed if we return to recession.
77. Haha, it was the same one as I was thinking about then!
O/T Why is it that I have this feeling in my bones that John Bercow might come to regret his all out attack on Conservative MP Simon Burns at PMQs today? He accused him of being a “bore and boorish”. It’s not the first time the two have clashed.
It’s just a feeling. That’s all I’m saying.
http://iaindale.blogspot.com/2010/03/matter-for-regret.html
Is he hinting at what I think he’s hinting at ?
77 - although she did duck the bunker question, in fairness. I think we can assume she probably did have her own personal nuclear bunker…
73 - weren’t the 09 Q4 figures revised up to 0.3%?
Other than that, I think your point is a good one. It would be a disaster for Labour, who appear to be running a campaign on two branches i) they saved the economy ii) the Tories will ruin it because of [insert made up policy here].
The country falling back into recession wouldn’t help them at all.
[55] - Averaging is also problematic when one pollster has a tracker, but others do not.
Suppose that, when the campaign starts, Angus Reid were to start up a daily tracker poll. They would then contribute more polls than at present to a simple average of all the polls, which would produce a spurious increase in the Tory lead [compared to the current domination by YouGov].
You could deal with this by only including the latest poll from each firm, but then you are throwing away potentially useful information, or some sort of weighting system, but you generally then have to make a number of more or less arbitrary decisions which have an impact on your final answer…
I think I favour looking at a simple running average for each firm. This irons out the statistical fluctuations, and isolates the methodological differences.
81 Rumour has it she was a nuclear bunker. Just her and cockroaches left after the big one.
80, Buckingham will be fun to watch but if he loses a 17k majority it would be an epic achievement.
80 Much too subtle for me, Kristin…..what is he hinting?
61 - Thanks Mike. There is some evidence of a temporary drop after Darling does his thing, but it generally hasn’t held.
The fact that AR is Canadian shurely give them a natural edge?
67 - ‘I thought at the time that surely she wouldn’t appear on the “Pop Panel” at the end, like other studio guests did each week, but lo and behold, she did!’
I’m sure that BBC wildlife presenter Chris Packham was on with her. When Maggie voiced an opinion about one of the songs he said, ‘I don’t often agree with Mrs Thatcher but on this occasion…’ So I had him down as a bit of a lefty after that.
I wonder why YouGov shows a close poll?
Baroness Ashton, is of course, married to ‘the’ Peter Kellner.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6945940.ece
perhaps it is all coming together now
by Betsy March 10th, 2010 at 1:23 pm
THE husband of Europe’s new foreign minister has disclosed that he was targeted by the KGB as a source in the 1980s.
Peter Kellner, the pollster and political commentator who is married to Baroness Ashton, spoke about the encounter as his wife faces scrutiny over her previous role at the Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament (CND). Kellner said intelligence documents from the 1960s showed that the British police as well as the KGB had incorrectly fingered him as a communist sympathiser.
80/86 - I think it’s something to do with this
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/parliament/simon_burns_mp/
84 PS By cockroaches, I was referring to the insects, not the Thatcher cabinet.
83 - There are no tracker polls around.
YouGov IS NOT A TRACKER
Sorry for shouting.
86 - lol might be too subtle for me also, it struck me though that when Bercow gets returned he still has to be confirmed as speaker, any dissent and there’s another vote for speaker iirc.
27 re yesterdays Lib dem jump on You Gov
Maybe they have looked at their weightings to correct for generally having LD’s below other polling companies.
Or more likely the fickle sample error of daily tracker polls.
Anyway I’m sure we will see the volatile Lib dem ratings descend again this evening.
82. Q4 up or down is also dependant on Q3 which has another revision to come
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/edmundconway/100004040/dont-be-fooled-gdp-was-actually-revised-down/
Oh and this as well
An intriguing vignette from today’s lively session of prime minister’s questions in which David Cameron lost his cool when Labour MPs shouted that retired defence chiefs were Tories.
John Bercow, the Speaker, was so annoyed with the noise that he singled out two MPs by name – the former Labour defence minister Derek Twigg and the Tory whip Simon Burns.
The Speaker was so angry with Burns that he told him he was being boring and boorish. As Burns smirked at Bercow, fellow Tory MPs jokingly banged their Commons order papers over the whip’s head.
And then Michael Gove, the shadow schools secretary, walked up to Burns to shake his hand. So there we have it: a public display of disapproval of the Speaker from a key member of the Cameron circle.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/wintour-and-watt/2010/mar/10/michael-gove-john-bercow-simon-burns-pmqs
But Mike, IIRC the RCP average in the last US elections beat most them pollsters! Nate Silver came slightly ahead, IIRC. UkPaul?
The only way the Lib Dems would jump four points in a day in a real tracker poll would be if the sample for the day was in Harrogate, during a Lib Dem conference, ignoring the journalists.
One has the feeling that Mr Bercows position post election might not be cut and dried.
77 - The internet is an amazing thing; who would have thought that childhood memory could be relived?
97, hehe. Ideal result would be Bercow keeping Buckingham, then being crushed by the new Tory Government. Bye bye, Frodo.
102. Lab GAIN Buckingham in that case ?
97 - just seen a repeat; Bercow was rubbish. Brown took his non-answering of questions to a new level and… nothing from the Speaker.
@100 - Slack, so Mrs Bercoww might not get to move back in after her camping trip on the lawns outside.
91 Thanks, TSE - I didn’t know about that.
Loved this vacuous blurb from Hill’s -
“The Conservatives are still the favourites to win a majority in this year’s General Election while Labour still have faint hopes of winning a fourth consecutive election. However, there is still a strong possibility of a rare hung parliament.”
What a fantastic piece of flim flam.
@103 - i the Lords perhaps, new speaker Frank Field!
I have heard that Mr Bercow is drafting in Christine Hamilton to help with his re-election campaign. If anyone knows about throwing away a rock solid majority, then she’s the one.
Before the 1983 General Election, CND published a list of 120 Labour MPs amongst its members. This total had risen to 133 by the time of the 1987 General Election. Currently, CND refuses to reveal either the total or the names of their supporters in the Parliamentary Labour Party. This is undoubtedly because it would run counter to Labour’s attempts to conceal its continuing unilateralism.
Says it all !!!
109 SR
I doubt he’ll get her, these days she’s fully employed as an ethics advisor to the major political parties.
#82 I think the ‘made-up policy’ you were looking for was “Ashcroft”.
73. I am not an expert on these statistics, but my understanding of the GDP figures is:
* the first estmate of 0.1% growth takes account of only around 40% of the eventual data,
* the second estimate of growth which came out at 0.3% is around 80% of the data, but crucially excludes business investment,
* the third estimate then includes business investment, which from memory fell by some 24% in the final quarter of last year.
The other factor already pointed out is the downward revision of Q3 data which meant GDP was lower in the fourth quarter on the second estimate that on the first. It nevertheless grew more than the first estimate because the preceding quarter was that much lower.
Lies, damn lies and statistics come to mind.
O/T If you want to live a long time, the secret is Backgammon and vodka
A woman in Georgia claims she is the oldest living person in the world - clocking in at 130 years old.
Documents found by the Rustavi 2 TV station in Georgia claim Antisa Khvichava was born on July 8 1880.
Antisa was filmed by the station playing backgammon and drinking vodka.
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/article-23813824-130-years-old-woman-claims-to-be-oldest-living-person-in-the-world.do
O/T If you want to live a 130years old, the answer is V0dka and BackGamm0n.
A woman in Georgia claims she is the oldest living person in the world - clocking in at 130 years old.
Documents found by the Rustavi 2 TV station in Georgia claim Antisa Khvichava was born on July 8 1880.
Antisa was filmed by the station playing backgamm0n and dr1nking vodka.
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/article-23813824-130-years-old-woman-claims-to-be-oldest-living-person-in-the-world.do
Guardian moves into survival mode aka “class war” !
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/mar/09/smoothies-party-rich-tories-brand
“The would-be MP is indeed master of the vast Drax estate, estimated to run to some 7,000 acres.
That’s certainly been the logic of the Drax clan, which has produced six generations of MPs before now – the first of whom went to the Commons in 1678, just around the time the Draxes were making their fortune from the slaves and sugar plantations they owned in Barbados.
Gordon Brown’s pep talk to troops on latest visit: “Don’t worry if it goes badly, lads, I’ve got a great joke on Lord Ashcroft lined up.”
113
Sticking a finger in the air is more accurate, cheaper and quicker.
On thread.A further comment on ICM.I tend to judge ICM on The Guardian figures.Other ICM poll for other Newsppapers eg Sunday Telegraph,NOW are irregular and also seem a bit more volatile.
The great thing about Guardian ICM is that you can look at it from month to month and geta real feel of movement.plus of course its back catologue gives good historical comparison.
Also been a useful forecasting tool.For the last 3 elections the calendar year average of Guardian ICNM polls has been within a 1% of final result-the Tories and Lib Demshave done 1% better Lab & others I5 worse.
The December 2010 calendar year the figures were Con 40.5,Lib 19 Lab 29.5 Oth 11.That promises a result of Con 41.5,lab 28.5 Lib 20,oth 10
114 - I suspect it’s nonsense; these things usually are. But that would make her 8 years older than the current oldest person ever - that French lady who used to chill with van Gough.
110. “This is undoubtedly because it would run counter to Labour’s attempts to conceal its continuing unilateralism.”
Well, they’ve had 13 years to unilaterally disarm. They’re leaving it a bit late to do so if that’s their plan don’t you think?
Or is this another conspiracy of some sort? Do tell.
107 — WillHill did not accept my money today, when I tried to wage a few quids on Tory Overall Majority @ 8/13.
117. I used to supply figures from our business to the then statistics bureau way back in the late 1970’s. Holiday periods, particularly Christmas / New Year, always produced fantasy outputs because the civil service refused to work on working days rather calendar days.
Lots of people wanting to portray Labour as the party of the Soviet Union.
So be it, I doubt many of them have heard of Ernest Bevin or know much about Denis Healey.
But hey, what is good for the goose is good for the gander.
As a Healeyite, Anti Apartheid activist from the Eighties I’d like to know what David Cameron was doing on a sanctions busting trip paid for by apartheid apologists.
And we all know what that “I went to see for myself” crap meant.
A quick meeting with a PAC guy and an Inkatha tribalist in the middle of a weeks aryan cocktail heaven.
So come on Dave apologists, get some answers from yer man.
[114] - Sorry to be morbid, but she’s not 130 yet, and she could yet die before she reaches that age. [Assuming the documents are accurate]
I don’t know why people have to be so casual with the facts when they could just get it right.
114 - Many of the stupendously old people that you find in poorer countries are paid a pension, and have been for many many years. You might almost think that their children had taken the pension over…
122 - What did Denis Healey mean when he said Moscow was praying for a Labour victory in 1987?
119 Tories used to complain when Labour brought up Cameron’s work for Chancellor Lamont in 1992. Ancient history they cried. Now they raise the ghost of CND.
114 — Did the journo ask her how it feels not to have sex for at least 70 years?
122… Oh Tim very bad mistake.. Not up to your usual standard here.
PMQs bit.ly/9eeKYr
127
Oooppps
PMQs http://bit.ly/9eeKYr
125 - He was replying to a journalist who said he knew that the Kremlin wanted a Tory victory.
Next.
122. Given up on the Ulster line of attack tim ?
127 - 70 years? Puts my recent near 6month celibacy into context.
122. Some of us were at University in the late 1960’s with people like Straw. We actually know what their views were then, not from hearsay and gossip.
126 - nobody cried ‘ancient history’. What they correctly pointed out was that Labour, while simultaneously trying to paint Cameron as light-weight and having never held a proper job, were also suggesting that he was central to the economic turbulance of the early 90s. Either he was an advisor, or he controlled the economy with his little finger.
Quite different from scores of MPs being members of causes which embraced Communism and all its ills at a time when we were supposed to be fighting it.
119 Monty, it’s all a terrible Liberal Media conspiracy, they have been covering up the fact we sold our nuclear weapons to Albania in 1998
118 Was that one of the Yorkshire Van Goughs ?
132..It gets worse. Takes gun, points at foot,pulls trigger.
119 “Well, they’ve had 13 years to unilaterally disarm. They’re leaving it a bit late to do so if that’s their plan don’t you think?”
If explains many things, including Defence Cuts during War.
139. Not suprised that tim doesn’t want to talk about the economy these days.
138 - superb
136 nobody cried ‘ancient history’.
Sorry, but they did.
122, you have to admit though, SA hasnt exactly been the most sucessful country since the end of Apartheid, has it?
Government by people who believe in witchcraft, sorcery and polygamy, and AIDS being a western plot, curable by having s*x with babies. Mugabe apologists and communists! Truly an African sucess story.
122: ‘As a Healeyite’
First Healey then Darling. What is it with this guy and men with strange eyebrows?
I think everything after Latvia, 1940, is fair game on this site, Jonathan, - goose, sauce, gander, as your pal says.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1225637/How-Kremlin-hijacked-Labour-Diary-Kremlin-insider-reveals-hold-Soviets-Labour-politicians.html
tim’s going to be on a losing run with this one.
‘The unpalatable truth is that many ministers in Government today rose through the ranks of a British socialist movement that was heavily influenced - and even controlled - by the Kremlin in Moscow.’
Transport and General Workers’ Union leader Jack Jones - who received effusive praise from Prime Minister Gordon Brown when he died in April this year - was a paid agent for the USSR
145 Some said the other day that Healey’s daughter had the same eyebrows
Poor kid.
Party leaders such as the donkey-jacketed Michael Foot and the Welshman Neil Kinnock were at times deeply reverential to their Russian ‘comrades’, the diary reveals.
In 1981, Foot led a big delegation to Moscow, to discuss multilateral disarmament with the Soviet leader Leonid Brezhnev. ‘Dear Comrade Brezhnev,’ Foot said while holding Brezhnev’s hand in both his own.
147 - How about this?
MI5 kept a secret file on Harold Wilson because of concerns at his relationships with Eastern European businessmen and KGB agents, it was revealed today.
The Security Service kept the dossier open throughout his time as Labour Prime Minister from 1964 to 1970 and 1974 to 1976, disguising it under the fake name Norman John Worthington.
It has emerged Wilson, who frequently claimed he was being bugged, was the only serving premier to have a permanent MI5 file.
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1217834/Who-Norman-John-Worthington-The-truth-Harold-Wilsons-secret-MI5-file.html
122 tim, since you never respond to questions, why on earth would anyone bother replying to yours?
One of Jack Jones’s brightest proteges, after all, was Gordon Brown.
The decision to give the young Scotsman his first and only safe seat, Dunfermline East, was made by two TGWU senior officials - one of them was Jack Jones, the other the drunken Alec Kitson. Both were friends of the Kremlin.
The union’s patronage was ubiquitous. Neil Kinnock and Tony Blair, as well as Cabinet ministers Margaret Beckett, Harriet Harman and John Reid, were all sponsored by TGWU and made their Labour Party careers thanks to it.
144 JamesA
That’s a irrelevant. There is no way apartheid can be justified.
144 - You do realise you have made Coldstones day with that post.
Hang your head in shame.
150 - Doesn’t that say more about MI5 than Wilson who, as far as I’m aware, didn’t turn out to be the Manchurian Candidate after all?
I’m a bit disappointed we’re not getting more frequent polling from ComRes, ICM and Populus (it’s something like once a fortnight or less with each) with a general election only 8 weeks away (presumably). What’s going on? Looks like the papers are taking a back seat whilst YouGov/Sun/Sunday Times dominates. The YouGov daily poll is great for showing rough relative shifts in support as the weeks happen, but it’s too much reliance on one source. It’s very difficult to get a good picture from these others’ very occasional polls.
NIESR 3 month GDP growth estimate 0.3%
155 - Well if you’ve read Spycatcher, there is a school of thought that Hugh Gaitskell was killed by the KGB to make way for the KGB agent that was Harold Wilson.
I don’t believe a word of it, but it’s fun to point out Tim’s attempt to derail a thread.
Are we expecting a poll tonight other than YouGov?
One thing we can always be grateful to the Russians for-the linesman over-ruling the referee in the 1966 World Cup Final,and allowing the goal that was later proven beyond doubt to have not crossed the line!
160 - Tsk, he’s was from Azerbaijan
150 - Wouldn’t it have been easier for MI5 to simply ask the Soviet Agents working for MI6 as to wheter Wilson was one of them.
It has always amused me that the Right in the UK have made out that the Labour movement were pro-Soviet, when all of the Traitors in the Cold War came from within the establishment.
160: ‘One thing we can always be grateful to the Russians for-the linesman over-ruling the referee in the 1966 World Cup Final,and allowing the goal that was later proven beyond doubt to have not crossed the line!’
Well, Wilson was PM at the time, so it proves the Soviets wanted to keep him in power through the feel-good factor.
120. Philippe, The took some from me, though I prefer backing Con seats of 325-349 at 10/3 with Bet365 as better value.
If you want an odds on bet with Hills, the 1/2 they offer in constructor match bets for Toro Rosso to beat Lotus at the Bahrain GP looks good given their car was 4 sec a lap quicker at the last test session.
http://www.autosport.com/news/report.php/id/81781
o/t “Survey Reveals Continued Trend of Decline in Illicit Drug Use by Adolescents” in the US
http://www.aafp.org/afp/991001ap/1387.html
Some seriously depressing information on there. :
Results from the Monitoring the Future Survey of eighth, 10th, and 12th grade students in the United States showed declines in the use of marijuana, some club drugs, cigarettes, and alcohol, according to HHS.
This year’s study surveyed more than 43,000 students in 394 schools across the country about lifetime use, past year use, past month use, and daily use of drugs, alcohol, and cigarettes and smokeless tobacco. Marijuana use during the past year was at its lowest rate since 1995 among 10th graders and at its lowest rate since 1994 among eighth graders. Rates of LSD use were the lowest in the history of the survey among students in all three grades.
Kids today – CUH!
162: Those sneaky commies and their dastardly plans!!
OT The feedback emails to the DP are up on their website - Ms Smiff doesn’t appear to be Miss Popular.
An interesting view on what peeps think - never looked through them before but will defo do in the future.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/the_daily_politics/8268443.stm
The Daily Politics messages page makes fascinating reading:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/the_daily_politics/8268443.stm
There are clearly a few Labour supporters but in the most part it is very hostile to Gordon Brown and today’s Labour MP, Jacqui Smith. Quite how the opinion polls can be right compared with the level of anger on this thread is amazing.
It seems to me that YouGov can’t seem to quite believe how few Labour supporters they are getting and therefore weight the numbers without stopping to think if there is a reason they are getting so few Labour supporters.
Roll on the election for the real poll!
144 - Oh dear.
167. “Quite how the opinion polls can be right compared with the level of anger on this thread is amazing.”
Not really. This board is one-way traffic for the Tories as well and that’s equally meaningless.
The endless Obamacare saga seems destined to extend until at least sometime in April:
“[House Majority Leader] Hoyer on Tuesday morning suggested the March 18 deadline recently set by White House press secretary Robert Gibbs was not endorsed by congressional leaders. “None of us have mentioned the 18th other than Mr. Gibbs,” Hoyer told reporters when asked if March 18 was still a “viable” date for the House to vote on the Senate bill, a package of legislative fixes and a possible third item dealing with abortion language.
Gibbs didn’t back down Tuesday afternoon, saying there “seems to be a disconnect” between Congress and the White House before stopping himself to add, “This was information I was given based on conversations that people had in this building with Capitol Hill.””
March 18 is important because it is the last day on which House passage could lead to Senate resolution of reconciliation before the two-week Easter break.
http://thehill.com/homenews/house/85825-disconnect-gibbs-hoyer-dispute-vote
And also:
“House Democrats are at least 10 votes short, according to interviews with aides, lobbyists and a survey of members conducted by The Hill. Some say the number is closer to 20. A few House Democratic members who were on the fence a couple days before the Nov. 7, 2009 vote are now firm “no”s. Some Democrats who voted yes last fall are now undecided.”
31/Will: I find it incredible you are proposing a Tory shift to the right, citing Tories staying at home in the previous few elections. Don’t you realise that a lurch to the right a major reason why the Tories did so badly? Their dog-whistle campaigns raised the race card in both 2001 and 2005. The bulk of our country has thankfully largely moved on from these types of opinions (although there it is still a significant minority rumpus that remains). Cameron’s great success has been in moving away from these tired old approaches, thus appealing to a much larger middle ground. The younger generations are generally more liberal in their philosophy, and sticking to old right-wing themes will mean the Tories will die as the older generations do.
I love Commies, thanks to commies I got out of doing an 8 page report at school on comparing Arthur Miller’s The Crucible to The McCarthy Trials.
I wrote the following observation, and only this.
“There is no valid comparison to made, there were no witches in Salem, whereas there were communists in America plotting to overthrow the lawful government of America”
169.You are not meaningless. You’ve converted me to Scottish Nationalism.
163 — Many thanks for that Caveman, but whilst being a degenerate gambler, I don’t like to bet yet on things I have no clue whatsoever about.
Keep us posted on the results, however!
As for the “Con seats of 325-349 at 10/3″ bet –it’s a great tip; it certainly looks like good value. But what if the Tories do better, hey? — I’d lose money, which is a thing I really don’t like to do. I prefer consistently winning with lower odds. Yes, I’m becoming a pu$$y!
As Warren Buffet said : first rule, “don’t lose money”; and second rule, “don’t lose money”.
On the F1, Alonso’s odds seem mental. To justify him being so far and away favourite, you’d expect him to have been tearing up the track.
174 - Didn’t Warren Buffet also say
“If you want end up with a small fortune out of betting, start with a large fortune”
170 — ObamaCare’s trading between 55 and 57 — down from 62-65, yesterday.
Pound still plummeting in Oz downwards to oblivion, as close to free money as it is possible to get. Today AGAIN had the lowest level EVER, under 1.63 Oz to the dollar, before Britain started buying to stop the slide at their usual 10am London time. This is so predictable. Lasts 2 or 3 hours and then they seem to give up.
Even at 1.63 you will make 8% in 20 days as it falls to 1.50 by the end of March.
As predicted by my very rich Westpac mate who knows these things. And he has been right for the last 5 years so not questioning him today when he is 100% on the money, literally.
Already fallen from 2.64 to the dollar 17 months ago, October 2008, a fall of 39%, and plenty more to come.
When the official debt has to be announced, credit rating falls and true debt against GDP figure from next month is confirmed at around 13% and is now marginally worse than Greece, then even holding at 1.50 will be an achievement.
173. “You are not meaningless. You’ve converted me to Scottish Nationalism.”
Cheers, Chris, and I’ve learned a lot from my exchanges with you as well. I hadn’t previously realised quite how extensive the allegations against Cameron were.
167 Great minds!
24/Sth Lndn Nick: Surely 2005 was an election with falling Labour support too?
I don’t know if any one’s read this by Jonathon Freedland but it’s all there ….Tories with triple barrelled names owning counties privilege sinecures Old Etonians The Rees-Moggs and last but not least the evil Mr Ashcroft!!
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/mar/09/smoothies-party-rich-tories-brand
167. “How could Nixon win, I don’t know anyone who voted for him”
I don’t know if any one’s read this by Jonathon Freedland but it’s all there Tories with triple barrelled names owning counties privilege sinecures Old Etonians The Rees-Moggs and last but not least the evil Mr Ashcroft!!
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/mar/09/smoothies-party-rich-tories-brand
176 — Well, let’s put it this way : I’d rather bet on the Tories now than say, on Apple or Coca-Cola.
179. “I hadn’t previously realised quite how extensive the allegations against Cameron were.”
Ooh, have I missed some good gossip?
184 — I’d short YouGov if I could…
25. “YouGov seems to think Labour will poll near 2005. That’s laughable.”
Why is that laughable? Labour polled 35% when they lost the 1992 election. It’s just a different coalition of support to the Blair one, that’s all.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8559644.stm
Eh? If you’re out of work and looking for jobs in the job centre, what are you doing with a £30 a month phone?
185 - Yes, the knowing looks of Diane Abbot tells you all you need to know.
171 - I agree. I personally would like to see a Conservative party in power confidently expressing some more grass-roots Conservative opinions on Europe, tax, the size of the state, and the like. But I recognise that much of the electorate lies to the left of me on these matters, and, in order to attract the support of the electorate, some of these views have to be tempered.
The British electorate is still (to my mind) surprisingly left wing, and any right-wing party seriously wanting to attract enough support to form a government must make some compromises. If Cameron can’t win a general election it’s not because he’s not being right-wing enough, it’s because the British electorate is still to the left of where any Conservative government can be elected.
Just reading Toenail’s blog - I really, I mean REALLY can’t believe that there’s a comparison being made with Churchill FFS?!?!
Even in GordonWorld - shurely no one can seriously believe this will wash?
188 slackbladder
more IT saves the world bollocks. This isn’t a government its the Gadget Show.
179.Well first you were ignorant of the facts and now you misrepresent them, consistency of a sort I suppose.
Just watched PMQs, I thought Cameron had clearly decided before the exchanges to get angry. He correctly predicted that as soon as he mentioned service chiefs, the Labour heckling would begin. As a tactic it worked. Although Brown didn’t rise to the bait & get angry himself, his mentioning of Ashcroft when the topic was Afghanistan looked shabby.
Overall Cameron 7 Brown 6 Clegg 4… Speaker Bercow 1
The House doesn’t respect Bercow, many more personal attacks from the chair like the one against Simon Burns, and he will be signing his own political death warrent.
189. “Yes, the knowing looks of Diane Abbot tells you all you need to know.”
Oh, absolutely - it was a dead giveaway that she’d read all those quotes about Cameron being a bully. And Portillo clearly had first-hand knowledge of his own, given his equally knowing countenance.
183 Careful Roger; they’re all likely to be found quaffing expensive wines in 17th Century Cheshire mansions with tim, whilst discussing trust funds.
I thought David Cameron was brilliant in pm questions today, as for yougov I dont rate them much, ICM is proven to be the best pollster by far. I wonder what laugh-able results yougov will publish tonight. Can I also say I think its disgusting that come an election brown has suddenly found the funds to pump more ££ for the brave lads and lasses in the forces, for better equiptment, surely this should of been done sooner to avoid casualties? truely appauling, brown is a disgrace, has the man no conscience, cheap political points at the expence of our brave army.
177. Here’s Why You Should Take The Intrade Healthcare Betting Very Seriously
http://www.businessinsider.com/are-washington-dc-insider-manipulating-intrade-to-manufacture-momentum-for-healthcare-reform-2010-3
191 - Well I do believe the War World II Leader analogy is apt.
Except Gordon Brown is Emperor Hirohito, Start of August 1945, expecting a land invasion, which he hopes can lead to a bloody stalemate.
Blissfully unaware, Cameron/The USA are ready to drop fat man and little boy.
Gordon Brown on May 7th will say.
This situation has developed not necessarily to Our advantage
@191 Plato , what did you think of the video ? He reminded me of Tommy Cooper, the hand gestures really are OTT and once I got that pictire in my mind the rest was just wibble wibble.
198
Well Gordon certainly is a fat man.
pictire = picture
Blissfully unaware, Cameron/The USA are ready to drop fat man and little boy.
What? John Precott and Ed Milliband are being chucked out of a plane?
(Use Eric Pickles and George Osborne if you’re Team Red)
183
Jonathan Freedland neglects to include in his cv the name of his school - University College, Hampstead. A doctor writes: this is a very sad case of minor public school envy. Only one worse case is known to medical science.
188. One of the things that you have to give up when you lose your job is the ability to communicate in a modern way.
You should immediately conduct all communications either face-to-face or by letter, using the cheapest stamp available.
If this means that you have to camp out in a prospective employer’s office for a few weeks as you are otherwise unavailable for contact, so be it.
Another strike looming.. British Gas this time.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8559818.stm
198. “Blissfully unaware, Cameron/The USA are ready to drop fat man and little boy.”
That explains a lot. What we’re seeing now is a vivid demostration of what would have happened had Little Boy detonated before it had been dropped from the Enola Gay.
198 - “Gordon Brown is Emperor Hirohito, Start of August 1945″
Of course, Hirohito continued in post for another 40+ years after that…
But don’t have nightmares, do sleep well.
203 - yeah, what the hell is the deal with that? I always thought it was a bit of jokey rivaltry between schools, until I spent a good hour some weeks back being lectured on the evils of Etonians by an old Uppinghamian.
Roger, what Mr Freedland, grockle that he is, is unaware of was that Richard Drax was the BBC South Today reporter for local news reports covering Bournemouth and Dorset. While owning most of the constituency was a help (only a little!) familiarity helped. He was one of the most wooden TV reporters ever, especially reporting on some murder or other from theless salubrious areas (social security funded underclass and OE ex Army Officer wasn’t a match made in heaven).
The problem with the polls is you never know who is right or wrong until the GE happens. Each year is slightly different.
Lots of people wanting to portray Labour as the party of the Soviet Union.
So be it, I doubt many of them have heard of Ernest Bevin or know much about Denis Healey.
But hey, what is good for the goose is good for the gander.
As a Healeyite, Anti Apartheid activist from the Eighties I’d like to know what David Cameron was doing on a sanctions busting trip paid for by apartheid apologists.
And we all know what that “I went to see for myself” crap meant.
A quick meeting with a PAC guy and an Inkatha tribalist in the middle of a weeks aryan cocktail heaven.
So come on Dave apologists, get some answers from yer man.
by tim March 10th, 2010 at 2:45 pm
HURTS Tim to know you are in bed with a load of REDS !!!!!
208 AD
one of worst human beings I have ever met came from Uppingham. He had a grudge against the world and a sense of entitlement bigger than an MP.
199 #Kristin - ‘Tommy Cooper’
That’s perfect!
He talks in meaningless cliches - it makes absolutely no sense even when I make the effort to listen closely.
I think the diagnosis that he drones people into submission is spot on.
205 ‘Staff at British Gas will be asked to vote in a strike ballot over alleged bullying by management’
I thought coldstone was retired?
211: tim’s developing a tendancy to run away for a few hours after being humilated. It’s happening on a daily basis, as he did the same yesterday after going after Marcus.
211.Michael Foot was on the KGB payroll according to Oleg Gordievsky, ex KGB who defected.
187 - You’re rounding up falsely to get to 35 for Labour.
The Lib Dems will not poll less than 18
The minor parties are significantly stronger than in 1992.
May I commend the Lloyd Evans review of PMQs on Coffee House; a classic of its kind and he is slaughtered in the comments.
197 — lol!
Are Washington DC Insiders Manipulating InTrade To Manufacture Momentum For Healthcare Reform?
……the surge does not represent the view of insiders (that it’s going to pass) but rather it represents an attempt on the part of DC insiders to bid up the market and create a sense of inevitability.
There’s some logic to it: the contract goes up, we write about it, Krugman writes about it, and suddenly everyone agrees that it has momentum.
But, is InTrade really influential enough to frome the debate? Maybe not generally, but here’s how a Washington DC observer explained it to us:
“Nancy Pelosi goes to Joe Freshman, D-Wherever, says, this bill is going to pass, you are going to get blamed for it because you voted for it last time. It’s not like you can beat it and make it go away, because it is going to pass. You vote nay, you get blamed, I give you nothing. You vote Yeah, it passes by 4 votes, you weren’t the deciding vote, you also get pork on which to run.”
??? I don’t buy it.
The Lost Boys actor Corey Haim has died aged 38, the Los Angeles coroner’s office has confirmed.
Rawnsley is very pleased with himself - End of the Party is No. 1 in hardback charts!!
207 - Ok, Gordon Brown is not Hirohito. He’s Kantarō Suzuki
203. Very good! I thought you’d like it-and not a Gurkha in sight or in his sights anyway.
Tories used to complain when Labour brought up Cameron’s work for Chancellor Lamont in 1992. Ancient history they cried. Now they raise the ghost of CND.
by Jonathan March 10th, 2010 at 2:47 pm
It is not a ghost Jon, it is in their blood and way of thinking.
They are ALL the same now as they were then. REDS
These old Uppinghamites, were either of them Stephen Fry ? I’d be disappointed if one was Jonathan Agnew.
217. “You’re rounding up falsely to get to 35 for Labour.”
As far as I can see, 35% is the correct figure for GB in 1992 - YouGov polls exclude NI (as do all polls), so that’s the proper comparison. But even if it was 34%, that’s pretty much what YouGov are showing now.
“The Lib Dems will not poll less than 18″
They didn’t poll less than 18 in 1992 either.
You gov to show a thai at the top tonight ?
Strong odds I’d say - its only a matter of time..
197/219- I don’t know about rigging intrade, but I am horrified at the sheer volume of medications that Pelosi appears to be taking.
227 You are SeanT’s stunt double and I claim my bestseller
224.I seem to remember Kinnock being asked before the 1992 election whether he was still a member of CND, he said no he had just allowed his membership to lapse…
Although the new party of CND is the LibDems, vote LibDem vote unilateral nuclear disarmament.
220 - That gives a sad answer to the question posed by the Thrills.
Buckingham was a Labour seat in the 80s
A solid Tory bulwark in north Buckinghamshire, along with Richmond (Yorks) the closest the Tories have to their equivalent of Bootle or Knowsley. In the past it was a Labour seat, held by Robert Maxwell,
225 fr
no, but it wouldn’t surprise me if tim were and Uppingham old boy.
Chubby Brown ‘punched’ girl
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/2887114/Chubby-Brown-punched-girl.html
With this Sheffield Council report into the incest abuse family, I did wonder if this only happens to Labour Councils? What about Lib Dem or Conservative led ones?
Harringay, Doncaster, Swindon…
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100029375/gordon-brown-launches-the-election-campaign-by-reminding-us-of-why-we-must-get-rid-of-him/
230. “Although the new party of CND is the LibDems, vote LibDem vote unilateral nuclear disarmament.”
If only.
The URL says it all WTF???
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/5831523/clegg-heir-to-thatcher.thtml
234 - “His real name of Royston Vasey” Really?
238 Plato
Fraser back on the ganja.
So Stars,
If the House of Pelosi doesn’t get the 216 votes by March the 18th — the ObamaCare Bill probably won’t be signed into law before July, right? — for there won’t be any possibility of using the timely reconciliation procédé in the Senate.
238. Carol, Mark or Dennis ?
NIESR: Weak Growth Continues
http://www.niesr.ac.uk/pdf/100310_153045.pdf
[But Jan, Feb flat - Dec 09 = 101.1 Feb 10 = 101.1 (2005=100)]
153-Well, we’ve had communism being justified. And not only by NPMP.
239 - yes, League of Gentleman used his name for the village in the sereies. Oh and that butchers shop was my butchers
209. Ted. Is that a testimonial for the sixth member of the Drax family to become an MP of his wholly owned constituency or are you suggesting something else!!
I would love to furnish you all with my thoughts regarding this subject. However I have been put on the naughty step re. My comments on YouGov recently!
Shame but thats the way of democracy these days!
237.Luckily they have about as much chance of influencing British Policy on nuclear defence as the Natties do in Scotland, so you can sleep safely in your bed.
Ms Diane Abbott (her of the knowing looks) gave an interesting view on what would happen, if having got rid of our nuclear defence, we were then blackmailed by another state. She claimed the Americans would never allow it…
Briish left, relying on the American right since 2010.
239 - yes, but it’s not some bizarre coincidence - The League of Gentlemen named the town where their show was set after him.
246. Yes the Benn, Dromey and Dunwoody dynasties have some way to go to match that.
248. “Luckily they have about as much chance of influencing British Policy on nuclear defence as the Natties do in Scotland”
As much chance as that? Perhaps I’d better read the Lib Dems’ manifesto more carefully - after all there’s at least a 10% chance that Nick Harvey will be Defence Secretary by May 10th.
It’s interesting that Roger dislikes the idea of Drax becoming an MP, but is probably rubbing himself over the prospect of yet another Benn (nee Stansgate), putting all of her 19 years forward for Parliament.
232-No it wasn’t. Buckingham was a Labour seat in 1966-70 ( when Labour’s majority no doubt came from MK).
230 vote LibDem vote unilateral nuclear disarmament.
Didn’t they do one of their many U-turns on that recently? Or am I mis-remembering? (If so I apologise - I might be confusing it with their policies on local income tax, mansion tax, Lisbon referendum, EU In/Out referendum, student top-up fees, bank bailouts, and coalitions with Labour.)
241- That’s a good question. One of the reasons that the White House would dearly love for Obamacare to pass the House by next Thursday and then pass the Senate on the eve of the Easter break is to avoid members having to go back home for the break and face angry constituents with the healthcare bill still an open issue.
The last thing members will want to see is angry constituents screaming at them only six months or so before the election, and then having to come back to Washington in April to cast a vote that will only further inflame their passions. Better to pass the thing now, the White House believes, before public anger scares the wavering centrist Dems into choosing their careers over this piece of legislation and defeating it.
So, it is an open question as to how things will proceed if the House can’t move it before Easter. Would the House Dems come back to town in early April with a coherent plan to move the bill swiftly? Would they come back more divided than they were before the break, increasingly frightened at the prospect of approaching elections and voter wrath? In an ideal scenario, they could still enact Obamacare by the end of April, but everything would depend on the uncertain events transpiring while Congress was out of session and back in their home districts.
254: Who knows what the Lib-dem policy is..I doubt even they do, such is the whim of St Vince on a day-to-day basis.
254.I thought their policy was not to renew Trident. Which is what Sir Humphrey would say was the defence system Harrods would sell you (costs a bomb and not needed, well you can say that about anything at Harrods). Instead they would send it for a review, look at different options, to find long grass and kick the ball there. But Clegg will not commit Britain to being a nuclear state, last time I checked anyhow.
Vote LibDem. Lose the pound. Lose defence.
256. Whereas those of us who think that the Tories are all over the place on one or two issues have simply made the schoolboy error of “misunderstanding the importance of the Office for Budget Responsibility”.
257. “Not committing to Britain being a nuclear state” is several light years short of a commitment to unilateralism, sadly.
257 I have zero idea what the LDs policies are these days bar the £10k tax threshold which is a good and clear one.
All the old stalwarts seen to have been U-Turned.
259. Thank heaven..
260 – Plato, obviously you did not take the time to trawl through the achieves of LibDemVoice.
All will become clear once you do - Unless it’s changed !
258 I think you have, James.
It’s actually a proposal of major importance, which has a good chance of entrenching sound public finances in the long term in much the same way that Brown’s delegation of interest-rate setting has helped entrench good practice in controlling inflation.
But of course there’s almost no discussion of important policy issues such as that. Certainly not from James Kelly.
ICM remains my personal favourite. I like how reliable they are and their ethic. They just quietly go about their buisness without trying to put their own spin on things, unlike a number of other pollster.
The point about ICM is not that they get the eve of election poll absolutely spot on, but then in the months and years before the election they tend to be there or there abouts to where the actual result comes in. That was true in 97, 01 and 05 when you look back at ICM’s polls in the year or so before the election.
Nabbers, we’re following the good example set by your idol Mr C
Tanks, mister. I think I will keep on selling my hundreds of shares slowly slowly. Hope those *DC insiders* will keep on buying it until I get ride of all my contracts, and beyond! :p
Would those who wish Britain to retain a nuclear deterrent tell us which countries they think pose a threat that is best met by nuclear deterrence?
258 I think you have misunderstood it, James.
It’s actually a proposal of major importance, which has a good chance of entrenching sound public finances in the long term in much the same way that Brown’s delegation of interest-rate setting has helped entrench good practice in controlling inflation.
But of course there’s almost no discussion of important policy issues such as that. Certainly not from James Kelly.
Guido on the button again
http://order-order.com/2010/03/10/flashback-2007-brown-i-will-not-let-you-down/
266
France
It was Ronnie Campbell
http://blogs.journallive.co.uk/journalblogcentral/2010/03/cameron-losese-his-rag-in-pmqs.html
1.”The first question in PMQs was about the fear that the vast majority of soldiers serving in Iraq and Afg. would not be able to vote in forthcoming election. Brown promised that they would. We’ll see.2
I think that is something that should be looked into, haven’t the armed forces serving abroad had problems being able to vote under this Labour government?
Just caught up with PMQ’s, isn’t really cringe worthy to see Gordon Brown, Chancellor and PM whining that he and his predecessor or Minister’s in the MOD take no responisbility for the many mistakes made over equipment in Iraq or Afghanistan. He claims that he provided everything that was ‘asked’ for, and its all the fault of the military brass. Its not just Cameron who should be angry, we all should, its called hanging the very military Chiefs out to dry. Must stick in the throat to see a PM more worried about his own political skin, and showing yet again his lack of courage, accountability or leadership skills of any kind.
266 We would only find out if we got rid of ours.. This is a betting site but that is too big a gamble right now
266. France. Never forget.
266. Iran, Argentina, Russia.
266 It’s a virility symbol that I’m happy to keep - we are a puny power these days and it gives us a little fillip/place at the top table which we’d never get otherwise.
Sad though it makes me to say so.
266.Anyone of about 2 dozen countries in the next 20 years. If Britain did disarm, and we were blackailed, we would have no option but to rely on the Americans. Why should American taxpayers continue to have to subsidise rich Europeans?
Interesting reflections by BBCs John Pienaar on R5Live this afternoon after another shrill and unproductive PMQs.
Pienaar said Cameron’s failure to mention the economy at all hints that the Tories no longer have confidence to go on the offensive over this issue.
If that is true (and I don’t see why not given the absolute battering the Party gets from all sides over its pay-down-the-debt-and-to-hell-with-jobs strategy) then this is disastrous for the Conservatives in the run up to the General Election.
The Economy is the biggest issue out there by miles and it seems the Tories know their obsession with the national debt has made them look ideologically driven rather than practical.
Serves them right!
Balls admits defeat on FreeSchoolMeals/Oxbridge. Kind of.
http://waugh.standard.co.uk/2010/03/balls-admits-defeat-on-freeschoolmealsoxbridge-kind-of.html
Death taxes won’t go away
“The Health Secretary today refused to rule out plans for a “death tax” to pay for care for the elderly.
Andy Burnham would not commit the Labour Party to a single policy option before a much-anticipated White Paper on the future of social care funding is published later this month.
But after a debate on the issue with the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats, he set out in detail what a “compulsory” model of public funding could look like…”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article7056857.ece#cid=OTC-RSS&attr=797084
For the real insight into Vince Cable, here is the Andrew Neil Straight Talk interview from Sept 2009.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b00mzzwj/b00mzzks/Straight_Talk_19_09_2009/
Cable is the chap who did not understand quantitative easing and called it “Robert Mugabe school” and then went on to support it.
Neil “You did’nt really predict the financial crisis” Cable “Yes”.
Neil “In 2003 you said in 2003 that we should not be panicked by the IMF.” Cable “There was no need to panic”.
Oh dear.
“William Hague refuses to answer ’silly Guardian questions’ about Lord Ashcroft”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/video/2010/mar/10/williamhague-conservatives
275. Chris, how does Sweden get by? There are 200+ countries in the world, of which only nine have nuclear “deterrents”. Are all the rest insane?
268/272. As Jim Hacker put it, “the Fr- eh, frigging Chinese!”
269.
Coming soon to a LD bar chart near Blyth soon..
“The rest are a bunch of Tories. They should shut up as far as I am concerned and enjoy their rest home.”
2005:
Name Party Votes % +/- %
Ronnie Campbell Labour 19,659 55.0 -4.7
Jeff Reid Liberal Democrat 11,132 31.1 +6.7
Michael Windridge Conservative 4,982 13.9 -2.0
Majority 8,527 23.8
Turnout 35,773 56.2 +1.5
266 — And some beer-drinking Québécois aged over 60.
280- Good for him
279. “For the real insight into Vince Cable, here is the Andrew Neil Straight Talk interview from Sept 2009.”
The Easterross Glasgow City Council memoirs cruelly overlooked again.
265- It’s great when conspiracies work in your financial favor!
Also, it’s interesting that passing Obamacare still depends on legislative fixes that nobody has figured out yet how to execute. That makes prospects for passage still very dicey. Also, there are increasing rumblings that members are less receptive than they were in the past to Pelosi’s armtwisting. That is surely not a good sign for them.
And in an open letter from the greatest silver screen propagandist since the comely Miss Riefenstahl:
“Liberal filmmaker Michael Moore on Sunday railed on Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel, predicting, “Democrats on Election Day 2010 are going to get an ass-whoopin’ of biblical proportions if things don’t change right now.”"
http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/85313-moore-democrats-are-going-to-get-an-ass-whoopin-of-biblical-proportions
276 - it doesn’t hint that at all. It hints that Cameron knows that whenever he talks about the economy, Brown reels out the tractors, Labour MPs make a load of noise, and all the lazy pundits talk about how Brown is a master at this sort of thing - despite all the evidence to the contrary.
Far better to, as he did today, show as a Prime Minister who answers a question about why he’s killing troops by yelling the name of a Tory peer nobody cares about.
276 Ben - The economy is not a good issue for PMQs, because it is Brown’s favourite ground. He has the lines, mendacious though they are, ready to repeat ad nauseam.
277 wibbler - Typical of New Labour to attack (wrongly in this case) on the details of the figure, and completely ignore the shocking fact itself. All Labour supporters should be absolutely ashamed of their government on that issue.
281. No…
276.
” obsession with the national debt ”
BenM is 21, rents or live with his parents and has never applied for a mortgage.
281.Sweden gets by on the backs of US taxpayers. Russia will not threaten Sweden for example because it is acknowledged that she is in the American sphere.
The question is, if Britain no longer thinks she can afford to defend herself, will not an increasing number of Americans become isolationist. History shows American isolationism has not served this country well, but you may have missed the history of the 20th century, no doubt learning about the defence strategy of William Wallace.
289 It’s pretty bad to accuse the PM of lying to the house, even if you don’t like or agree with him Richard.
I agree Cameron is probably wise to keep away from the economy in the PMQ’s format, but I just hope he’s ready to talk economy on the TV debates, because out of the three debates, thats the one that could be make or break.
I like you Stars, despite your Zobyism.
292. “Sweden gets by on the backs of US taxpayers.”
I beg pardon? Sweden is neutral. During the Cold War, there were times when it was as close to Cuba as to the US.
“no doubt learning about the defence strategy of William Wallace”
Alas, the teaching of even the basics of Scottish history was utterly woeful at my school. Something that must be remedied.
293 Jonathan
then maybe Brown should stop lying and he won’t get accused.
Zogbyism,
Hens have teeth afterall…5 peeps done in recent months
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/law/article7053913.ece
“Malcolm Calvert, a former partner at Cazenove, the Queen’s stockbroker, has been convicted of insider dealing and faces up to seven years in prison.
A jury at Southwark Crown Court today returned a guilty verdict for Calvert, 65, on five counts of insider dealing after 18 hours of deliberation. He was acquitted of a further seven counts.
He will be sentenced at 2pm tomorrow.
Calvert, of Cobham, Surrey, will be sentenced tomorrow. Four people have been convicted of insider dealing in the past 12 months, three of whom received immediate custodial sentences and the other a suspended sentence…”
“Bad, Bad Gordon Brown”
Jim Croce Bad, Bad Leroy Brown Lyrics (changed)
Well ‘ole south side of the river
Is the baddest part of town
And if you go down there
You better just beware
Of a man name of Gordon Brown
And he’s bad, bad Gordon Brown
The baddest man in the whole damned town
Badder than a-old King Kong
And meaner than a junkyard dog
Now Gordon he a gambler
And he likes his fancy clothes
And he likes to wear his diamond rings
In front of everybody’s nose
And he’s bad (bad) bad (bad) Gordon Brown
The baddest man in the whole damned town
Badder than a-old King Kong
And meaner than a junkyard dog
Well two men took to fighting
And when they pulled them from the floor
Gordon looked like a jigsaw puzzle
With a couple of pieces gone
And it’s bad, bad Gordon Brown
The baddest man in the whole damned town
Badder than a-old King Kong
And meaner than a junkyard dog
I can see that the internationalist wing of the Tory party is out in force.
I can, barely, see a case for a nuclear defence against Russia - though most of Europe gets by just fine without one. In what circumstances would we need nuclear defence against Iran or Argentina?
I’m treating France as a joke. As for the beer-drinking Quebeckers, I’m not sure that weapons-grade uranium is enough to stop them.
236 ,With this Sheffield Council report into the incest abuse family, I did wonder if this only happens to Labour Councils? What about Lib Dem or Conservative led ones?
Sheffield is conrolled by the Lib Dems, what is your point?
Reminder: Tonight on Newsnight for the full 50 minutes (one assumes Newsnight Scotland will break away) is Gove v Laws v Balls. The question is which will be the bigger event: this or Burnley v Stoke?
I have been viewing this board for the last couple of years and here goes my first post. I am a 33 yo company director and live in Herts, with pregnant fiance, who is due in the next couple of weeks. I find it incredible that the polls are stating labour at anywhere near their support in 2005. Anywhere I go, I do not find a single Labour supporter for the forthcoming election. therefore, may be it is the circles I move in, or where I am from, but I can only expect that labour’s support at the election will drop off a cliff.
However, despite my disillusionment with the government and country, I just don’t get that feeling of warmth towards an incoming Tory administration. Let’s face it the country is in a mess, but even so, the antipathy stretches to the Tories.
In my opinion, if they would just campaign properly on a normal footing, ie against political correctness, for reducing the defecit, for abolishing government waste, controlling immigration, they would surely poll so much better.
The coming election is vital for our country, and I for one, may look to leave the country, if Labour somehow gets in.
297 I thought our Richard had more class.
298- So Zogbyism = Mr. Yuck?
http://farm1.static.flickr.com/7/9553898_b958c37894.jpg
303. “one assumes Newsnight Scotland will break away”
Christ, we can but hope.
The key to destroying Brown in the economic debate is not to bandy about statistics but to stick to the concrete issues and show how most of the money was and is being mis-spent: failing schools, appalling neglect in hospitals, soldiers without armour. Answer every statistical boast with an undeniable, memorable failure somewhere in the country.
296.Sweden is neutral as between good & evil, not an example you would recommend we followed surely. The point stands, for any other nation to attack a western nation, would upset the balance of power, the Americans would intervene.
My view is an engaged America = a more peaceful world. So keeping America engaged by showing a willingness to share some of the burden is a worthy cause which saves lives.
303. Those with bets on Balls to be next Labour leader may be advised to watch from behind the sofa
303 Food fight on Newsnight!!
Interesting snippet from the Times for all of you who were saying Brown’s best bet would have been to call a March election:
The Times understands that in the past few weeks Mr Brown, along with his closest colleagues, Lord Mandelson, Ed Balls and Ed Miliband, have considered the merits of an earlier election battle but rejected the idea.
The improvement in Labour’s poll rating convinced Mr Brown and his colleagues that they can use the next eight weeks to eat further into the Tory lead and make headway in marginal seats.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article7056366.ece?token=null&offset=12&page=2
308. “Sweden is neutral as between good & evil, not an example you would recommend we followed surely.”
I might or might not, depending on what on earth you are talking about.
280. Agreed. Silly incontinent partisan paper run by a ‘tax efficient’ operation from the Cayman Islands and together with tax payers cash.
303 one assumes Newsnight Scotland will break away”
If only. Kirsty Wark could then report on the days events at the parish council, from the wee studio in Ballamory, to her hearts content.
311. June it is then
303, excellent. I’m sure Labour’s Balls will be found sadly lacking.
305 — No! — that was just me being pissed off by misspelling Zogbyism.
Oh! Dyslexia…
Miss Riefenstahl had much more grace than Mr More…
I’m off. Ciao ciao.
314. EdP - do I take it from that you don’t realise that Newsnight Scotland is a real programme? The good news (for us, anyway) is that it isn’t presented by Kirsty Wark.
302 For the vast majority of the 24 years over which the sexual abuse took place Sheffield was Labour run - whay is TOUR point ?
314 Kirsty needs a change in daylight saving - she looks like she gets dressed in the dark on most occasions.
I confess that I once went to work in odd shoes on winter’s day - one black and one navy but in the same style
312.If a modern day Hitler were to emerge, you wouldn’t want us in Britain to stay neutral, as our interests & our allies were swallowed up? Is it SNP policy for Scotland to be a neutral nation?
re 303 Burnley v Stoke
Lloyd Evans returns to form:
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/5831483/tornado-in-the-chamber.thtml
295 Jonathan - I’m afraid Brown’s record speaks for itself. He was even claiming recently that he cut public spending in 1997/1998! How brazen can this guy be?
He has also repeatedly claimed to have been pushing for international financial regulation since 1997, has consistently misrepresented Tory policy on regulation and the rescue of the banks, claimed Spain was in the G20 and refused to issue a correction, etc etc etc. And those are only the examples which immediately come to mind.
You will note that I did choose my words carefully, however.
320. Plato, most men wouldn’t have that problem - only owning one pair of shoes as we do.
293.Jonathan, its pretty bad to observe a PM lying to your face, how could we forget the bottled Autumn GE?
I have come to the conclusion that this government and people like Brown and Mandelson are onto a winning formula. Be as outrageously dishonest as you can, make it so blatant that those interviewing or questioning you know it. Then watch everyone either shy away from calling you on it to your face, while others come to your rescue and cry what a bad show it is to even suggest you are even capable of such outrageous behavior no matter how often you have been caught doing so.
Just seeing some of the accusations that Brown, Mandelson or Prescott have thrown about in the media while attacking their opponents in recent weeks is a master class of that kind of negative and dishonest politics.
321. No, but it is firm SNP policy to be a non-nuclear nation, and to stay outside NATO because it is a nuclear weapons alliance.
But not neutrality - so it seems an independent Scotland will be deemed fractionally less loathsome in Chris g100-world than the Republic of Ireland. It’s an endorsement, of sorts.
294.
I agree Cameron is probably wise to keep away from the economy in the PMQ’s format,
I agree. It’s embarrassing watching Cam get systematically skewered.
330 Nah, you just get to miss bits of chin shaving or bog roll stuck on your neck
303 they fought the Laws, but the Laws won
@Plato, don’t worry ’bout it: lots of insanely gorgeous teens are sporting odd shoes everyday in Bangkok…
336. I stopped shaving as a New Year resolution - sticking to it so far!
334.No, so even the SNP don’t wish to follow the example of Sweden that you raised.
SNP will be relying on English nuclear weapons to prevent themselves being blackmailed then. Of course, if we didn’t bail you out in such circumstances, you would be less like Swedes and more like turnips
335.How do you explain that Labour are behind to a man who is skewered so badly every week?
Crap Politician News.
Good to see Balls slapped by the staisticians over the Education spat.
Grayling is still refusing to release the document on the crime stats that he got.
Hague is now refusing to answer questions on Ashcroft at all.
Muppets, all.
341. I explain it by watching the polls tighten up inexorably just before the election campaign.
335: ‘It’s embarrassing watching Cam get systematically skewered.’
Phooey! It was questions on the economy that had hapless old Gordon wittering on about ‘0% increase in growth’ and ’saving the world’. What an embarrassing, tongue-tied, gaffe-prone old duffer Gordon is!
Is Brown psychologically prepared for a debate in which he isn’t guaranteed the last word on every topic ?
339 - I saw a great newspaper article when in Iceland recently about a fellow who had pledged not to shave until interest rates were back to single figures. The now heavily bearded fellow was claiming massive success as they were already down to 12% from a high of 20% or whatever, showing a splendid lack of regard to the issue of causation.
343.How do you explain that Labour are behind?
340. Why would we bail Scotland out? Russia might make a better neighbour.
It could be an interesting debate on Newsnight tonight. I went to a lecture by Alan Milburn last night (remember him?) on the subject of Aspiration and Acheivement in Schools or something like that, and to my amazement he came out in favour of Education Vouchers. I wonder if he was speaking with the authority or knowledge of his soon-to-be ex-colleagues? He is standing down in six weeks time, so maybe he was demob happy.
340. “No, so even the SNP don’t wish to follow the example of Sweden that you raised.”
Apart from not taking up official neutrality, an independent Scotland would be following the Swedish example fairly closely, ie. outside NATO but firmly inside the EU.
“SNP will be relying on English nuclear weapons to prevent themselves being blackmailed then. Of course, if we didn’t bail you out in such circumstances, you would be less like Swedes and more like turnips”
God, I wouldn’t like to step into one of your nightmares. As a matter of interest, who exactly are these potential ‘blackmailers’? Did we fall for the old honey-trap again? Nuclear armageddon is probably all we deserve.
Poll news
The latest PB/Angus Reid poll will be out tomorrow.
345 - You might equally ask whether Cameron and Clegg are ready for a debate where they don’t set the agenda. I suspect both men are more capable of performing than Brown, but a debate does change the rules of the game for everyone, not just the PM.
345 I doubt it - and the debates only allow for a minute to reply and the 4 mins to discuss between all three.
Judging by his bore-into-submission style that’ll be of zero use to him in this format.
Tractor stats are his favourite modus operandii and the structure simply doesn’t allow for it. His lies will also be exposed too.
Hectoring looks *really crap* on TV - and that’s his default mode.
326 For the vast majority of the 24 years over which the sexual abuse took place Sheffield was Labour run - whay is TOUR point ?
And for half of that time there was a Labour Government and the other half a Tory Government. Does that make a difference? Are you actually suggesting that Child abuse is somehow promoted by Labour Councils??
I think you need to get out more.
Cameron on Titchmarsh now. Not sure if I can bring myself to watch or not.
351, is it a national or marginal?
#243 NIESR:
…We do not expect output to pass its peak at the start of 2008 until 2012…
Some 48 months or more of depression using the NIESR definition - of similar length to the 1930-34 and 1979-83.
re 342. I agree with Tim on all three. Hague is less than the sum of his parts; Grayling is grossly over-promoted and the Unite-backed Balls could just end up as Brown’s successor. Gawd help us all.
335. No, he’s wise to stay away from it at PMQ’s because you can’t have a serious discussion with Brown on the economy. He’ll twist and bend the facts and parrot his endless nonsense about Tory policies and how they are “Wrong” on everything. You just can’t have a serious discussion with him on economic matters.
353.Brown might suffer in the debate format, for one minute he’ll be speaking direct to camera. His last effort at that was Youtube…
Oh dear… he’s on with Kelvin McKenzie
355 What channel?
359. Brown will be at a serious disadvantage over PMQs - he doesn’t get to go last.
Should get his veins popping.
354 I would never, ever suggest that any Council, of whatever political persuasion, would encourage or promote child abuse. However, I do wish that Cllr Mrs Margaret Hodge had carried out a thorough examination of the various allegations made about childrens’ homes in Islington 20 years ago. Instead, she and her political cronies toed the Union line (that paid-up trade unionists could not possibly behave like that) and harrassed various people who were making the complaints. She should have resigned in disgrace - instead she got a safe seat in Parliament….or is it?
362 Plato
ITV
361 Ah ITV 1 - a channel I can’t recall watching in a decade!!
366, Harry Hill’s TV Burp can be most entertaining.
342. I feel your pain. Why are we surrounded by such mediocrity?
Osborne, Cameron, Hague, Fox are all talented and yet they continue make bad decision. We know Brown and his minions are pathetic, vindictive, talentless incompetents but that’s to be expected, we are twelve years in to government, the A team have been and gone, we have the dregs of the B team and the ones no one would pick at games, the Conservatives have no such excuse.
352
Cameron won’t be allowed to set the agenda.Like he did today with a question on armoured land rovers which was answered by “Lord Ashcroft” ?
ITV is the best possible argument for the BBC.
329 - I may have to go into hiding later then
325 - “The good news (for us, anyway) is that it isn’t presented by Kirsty Wark.” - James, I’ll start campaigning for an independent SBC tomorrow if the SNP promises to take her back.
346 -
ComRes poll on education for Newsnight
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/newsnight/8558537.stm
367. “Harry Hill’s TV Burp can be most entertaining.”
True, but it would take more than that to make up for Tom Bradby.
368
You forget the horlicks Mrs T and her team made before they were elected..
Sir Keith Joseph came over as living on another planet..
Just like Hague.. who is a total loser at politics…
308. Whilst in control now, it was labour not LDs who were in charge during the period that the report covers.
Cameron very populist on Venables. Says Bulger’s mum should be told all, and the public should be told all (after a delay, if necessary, to avoid prejudicing a trial).
364 - It is true to say that Labour councils have had quite an unfortunate run of these over the years:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/45312.stm
Given that Tony Blair eventually made Margaret Hodge Minister for Children, I conclude that Labour just doesn’t take the matter very seriously.
374. Oh come on - we have to put up with toenails, Marr and Boulton - you wont even give us one ?
Dear God… people actually watch this?
Argh.
354. You would be surprised about what can happen in institutions, i doubt Margaret Hodge really had much influence, or had a policy of encouraging predatory homosexuals to take employment in boys homes.
Her crime would have been (as is suggested), that she didnt investigate when the matter was brought to her attention, but colluded in both rubbishing the reputation of the accuser and simultaneously blocking an enquiry.
She might have been entirely blameless, but the irony of her being made minister for children takes some beating.
375 I always associated Keith Joseph with the Star Trek aliens who communicated via their brains and appeared in the titles of the first series
Maybe it is because I am a gentleman of a certain age, but I am rather impressed by Kirsty Wark (or “Thirsty Work” as she was known when she first came down to London.)
Hopefully Harry Hill will do an “Election TV burp”
That would be amusing.
In a way, if Labour win in May, it will be quite funny to watch the mass exodus of intelligent and mobile people from the country. Millions of retirees are also going to sell up and move abroad, as well as the country’s best minds and those with a spirit of enterpreneurship which is better valued elsewhere It will be a brain drain like never before as the UK collapses in a pile of debt, strikes, chaos and bitter recriminations. Labour will have made their pile of shite and have to sort it out.
355.Wibbler, he better appear soon, and Kelvin MacKenzie on as well. Is this a bit of a sofa chat show, more Daily Mail than Hello? Oh wait, its the Generation Game.
I do like Sharlene Spittari though.
371. “James, I’ll start campaigning for an independent SBC tomorrow if the SNP promises to take her back.”
Ah, I think you’ve just helpfully located that elusive “union dividend” for me. I knew there must be one somewhere.
368 ‘ the A team have been and gone’
Who were they again? I’ve cast my mind back over the Labour government since 1997 and try as hard as I might no names spring immediately to mind. I can think of plenty of people forced to resign in disgrace or leave under clouds. David ‘Machine gun them’ Blunkett as an example.
Flower arranging against the clock?
380 That’s why I never watch ITV - it makes ‘Pets Win Prizes’ seem intellectual ;-?
377 - Wibbler.
“Told all”
what do you mean “all”
Now you’ve got me watching this shit I demand answers.
386 ChristinaD
He was already on at the start… but he will be back later after all this fluffy nonsense.
236 TC “With this Sheffield Council report into the incest abuse family, I did wonder if this only happens to Labour Councils? What about Lib Dem or Conservative led ones?”
RedRiding March 10th, 2010 at 4:38 pm “Sheffield is controlled by the Lib Dems, what is your point?”
As my good “friend” Mark Senior has pointed out at the time of the abuse Sheffield was Labour run.
Also added to the list is the old Islington Council when it was Labour run and Mrs Hodge’s despicable record.
Labour really do seem synonymous with badly run councils.
388.
Blair, Cook and Milburn.
385 ‘Millions of retirees are also going to sell up and move abroad’
Where are they moving to, Zimbabwe? Sterling’s worthless.
389 - Anyone refusing to pay their licence fee should be locked in a cell with this stuff 24 hours per day until they beg to be let out.
391 tim
He basically said that Denise Fergus should be given pretty much any information she wanted - the public more generally should wait until it wouldn’t prejudice a trial.
387 - “Vote for Independence - Get Kirsty.” SNP support collapses ?!?
He was already on at the start… but he will be back later after all this fluffy nonsense.
Are they doing his North Pole trip then?
388 Well, although I am surprised to admit it, I was rather impressed by Alan Milburn last night. He didn’t talk total bollocks, and made a few good points. I could see him being an effective minister, not taking any nonsense from civil servants, and I can see why many in the Labour Party are sorry to see him go.
393 - In fairness, Islington is now Lib Dem and is just as badly-run as ever.
373 - Wibbler. What a bizarre poll. Labour apparently have failed big time and yet more people support their policies? Hmmm……..
378 - I have to say it’s unfair to lay that charge at the door of any particular party.
There are a lot of councillors of all parties who do good work on social services in their communities and take child abuse issues extremely seriously.
Labour happen to historically have controlled a lot of large urban councils with major social problems of all sorts that, for example, the Richmond-upon-Thameses and Buckinghamshires of this world don’t have to the same degree. A minority of these Labour controlled councils have been abysmal and it’s right they are punished by the electorate - as it would be for any party.
But to say it’s a Labour problem is a low and frankly unfair blow. Although I tend to agree with you on Hodge.
400
Milburn?
Did he not negotiate the new doctors’ contracts - vastly inflated salaries etc?
402.Its ComRes…
Le Monde doesn’t like George Osborne
http://waugh.standard.co.uk/2010/03/le-monde-doesnt-like-george-osborne.html
I reckon they’ve got a new tim.
@310
In my opinion, if they would just campaign properly on a normal footing, ie against political correctness, for reducing the defecit, for abolishing government waste, controlling immigration, they would surely poll so much better.
The coming election is vital for our country, and I for one, may look to leave the country, if Labour somehow gets in.
by Adam March 10th, 2010 at 4:38 p
Good first post Adam, it took me a while to stop delurking also. Now you’ve started just jump in. As for your comment re deficit, government waste and immigration, these are all covered by Con party policy announcements.
Economy
http://www.conservatives.com/Policy/Where_we_stand/Economy.aspx
Immigration
A Conservative government will reduce immigration to the levels of the 1990s - tens of thousands a year, instead of the hundreds of thousands a year under Labour.
The problem is the MSM seem to take their lead from Labour spin meisters, but it’s all there if you want to find out more.
397 - Including identity and clues to identity?
Surely not.
404.I think that was John Reid
402 Sthlondon Nick
Not past vote weighted so not hugely useful.
389.”Flower arranging against the clock?”
wibbler, its the generation game format all over again. Who was the other bloke brought into do this?
406.
” alleging that his Euroscepticism will not help with hedge fund regulation”
Good !
Via ConHome:
“This blog collects perspectives on the election you won’t find anywhere else, by political experts, based in the School of Politics and International Relations at The University of Nottingham.”
http://electionblog2010.blogspot.com/
403 - I’m not saying it’s a Labour problem. Obviously it is not. However, I can’t see how any Government that appoints Margaret Hodge as Minister for Children can claim to take the issue seriously.
Crikey - people watch this stuff? And I thought QT and AQ was dumbing down…
Several years ago, I used to do a lot of radio phone-ins and it wasn’t unusual to go from something quite tough a la R5ish to fluffy community radio - it was a total brain fcuk as you go from one straight to another.
388. Really? Take off the partisan glasses, and lets look at them. We are judging them on their air of confidence and apparent judgements in the first term and a half.
Blair, confident, assured, more or less understood why economic liberalism worked, was inspiring and a great negotiator.
Robin Cook, his ‘ethical foreign policy’ was bold, if not a bit naive, but he largely pursued it. Had an excellent master of detail, was a first rate debater, shit of a husband, but never mind. He was both sincere and confident.
David Blunkett, though wouldnt readily admit it, admired Michael Howard, who was the first Home Secretary in a generation to control the Home Office, rather then it control him. Blunkett was exceptionally talented, he was able to hold a great office of state, to have a brief of detail yet suffer a disability that would have many of us housebound and dependent on home help from social services. Blunkett continued the ‘prison works’ ethos and saw crime drop like a stone.
Gordon Brown, while now he is caricatured as a weirdo with few redeemable skills, as Chancellor, especially in his first term he was able to squeese public spending more then any chancellor under Thatcher, and he resisted the urge to tax the rich. He was bolder then Ken Clark by giving the bank of england independence.
For starters…
406. The French don’t like Boy George? He must be doing something right then.
411 - Fair enough. I know that the BBC can’t do VI polls, but surely they could past vote weight and then strip out that information before publication?
417 - the clue is in the quote where they complain about his Euroscepticism. Mon dieu!
Eh bien, quel domage, peu importe.
Augustus, 20 off year ago I had a certain soft spot for Ms Wark
Hmmm…
“City regulator the FSA has told the banks to ’stress test’ their solvency assuming double dip and a further 23 per cent fall in house prices”
http://twitter.com/faisalislam/statuses/10279981981
418 GIN - Not just the French: Le Monde. The house newspaper of the Ecole Nationale d’Administration.
This is not, how shall I put it, the most Thatcherite of journals.
The SNP and Plaid Cymru aren’t happy:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/wales/wales_politics/8560022.stm
But they’re not threatening legal action yet, so far as I can see.
424. It makes the Cayman Courier (aka the Granuaid) look like Fox News.
425 Elfyn was *incensed* on Dick Bacon’s show this afternoon.
For those betting on a possible BNP win, more news from Stoke Central. The MP Mark Fisher is standing down. I was a very young person when he became an MP…
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8560864.stm
425 The SNP and Plaid Cymru aren’t happy:Plus ça change
Mark Fisher to step down in Stoke
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8560864.stm
“Health issues”
428 Who’s the BNPer who’s standing there?
Be entertaining if they got in and Griffin didn’t.
428. Snap
“In June last year, Mr Fisher joined a group of MPs calling for Gordon Brown to step down as prime minister. “
432. aka “The PLP”
#339 Sandy Rentool
Is “it” velcro?
After Vorderman and Allsopp are we expecting Dave to announce that he’s putting Titchmarsh in charge of Agriculture?
434. Very good!
Crikey Charlene Spiteri is having to slum it on ITV.
435 You could always apply being given your agricultural experience and NewsSense
re 397 why should she? She knows he’s in prison and that should suffice. I notice that Mr Bulger is being very quiet in all this - and very dignified he is too.
437 Is that live - it didn’t sound it
If it was then BRAVO
439. Perhaps she can’t be trusted to be fully briefed ?
435 Not a bad idea, tim. He certainly couldn’t do a worse job than Margaret Beckett and her successors did, flushing £620M into the slurry-heap of the RPA.
435, Tim stop it …my sides are aching…soo funny… shit..
423 Is Brown finally coming true on his promise? Shame it’s the ‘More’ & ‘bust’ bits that we end up with.
Vorderman provided me with the best laugh for ages when she appeared on Question Time last week. She was dire, so please Mr Cameron put her on television again in the guise of Tory spokesperson. She is hopeless and worth a few votes for Labour when she appears.
Apparently 10 million watching Titchmarsh this evening !
Political courage:
Q. Eastenders of Coronation St ?
Ans: Neither really.
445.. Lilly,,,have you met Tim…you two should get together…
Salmond whining, yet again. He isn’t even standing in the election, silly man.
445 Lilly Allen
I’m sure she’s really worried she doesn’t have your approval. What are your achievements again?
Have you ever had a mortgage.
Dave “I’ve got one now”
On your main home?
“no, I paid that one off”
Top answer Dave.
Re 445.
Lilly things please Lilly minds
Cameron doing well on spontaneous applause, better than Gordon’s pre-recorded/edited stuff.
New thread
Cameron tour de force, very supportive audience. I’m surprised, even Cameron seems surprised.
438 plato, tim spends so much time here, he’s given up on agriculture, and moved on to ‘Fathers for Justice’. Look out for him if you’re driving along the M62; he’ll be chained to a gantry dressed as Spiderman, posting on pb.com from a Blackberry.
451 tim
I suppose with Brown it would have been ” Look, my mortgage isn’t important when you consider Lord Ashcroft…”
Answering a question, new territory for you tim ?
do we take yougov as being out of kilter then ?
451.. Thats so terrible Tim…but dont worry..your taxpayer farming subsidies will see you ok..
(Denis Healey) was replying to a journalist who said he knew that the Kremlin wanted a Tory victory.
Next.
by tim March 10th, 2010 at 2:49 pm
Nope, it was in the context of reports that the first thing a Labour government would do is bring the nuclear subs into port and mothball them. I remember the Sunday Times graphic with subs steaming up the Thames with what appeared a white flag, and I don’t mean the duster either.
Den didn’t really approve the policy I believe.
Your bunker computer is up the spout again. You should have got that ‘Valkyrie’ upgrade, shouldn’t you?
440.Plato, she is excellent live. Saw Texas a few years ago in Aberdeen and it was superb, all the men there stood with a gleekit look on their faces drooling over Sharlene up there on the stage in jeans and with a guitar. She had them eating out of her hand.
Formerly Hon. (really?) Eric Massa
S&S, why are even the softer-headed GOPers (obviously Glen Beck is NOT in this company) rushing to embrace the heafty, heafty trash bag that is the former Congressman?
And was his defection from your party to mine one of Karl Rove’s masterstrokes? Does sound like the kind of thing KR would come up with after conjuring up the damned soul of Lee Atwater . . .
Anyway, Dems like me really cannot blame Reps like you for the way that OUR Congressional brain trust embraced this asp to their collective bossoms!
BTW, speaking of Congressmen Gone Wild, just ran into this gem from the recent biography, “Bill Mauldin: A Life Up Front” by Todd DePastino.
Mauldin, already famous for his great “Willie and Joe” cartoons, was ordered at one stage of WWII “to cover a fact-finding tour of Italy by the House of Representatives Military Affairs Committee”
“Bill’s first encounter with a committee member took place in a corridor of Rome’s Grand Hotel. The unnamed Congressman - Bill would never reveal his identity - wore only socks and an undershirt while ‘attempting a frontal assault on a chambermaid.’”
Mauldin was a died-in-the-wool liberal Democrat. BUT his personal favorite member of the committee was Republican Clare Booth Luce.
Election date - again.
Are we writing June off too readily? I ask because of the following facts:
1. The Budget will not be delivered until March 24.
2. A May 6 election requires a dissolution on April 12.
3. The Budget must be enacted before the dissolution, else the government won’t be able to collect most taxes.
4. It is usual for parliament to be in recess for the two weeks either side of Easter (though the recess dates for both Houses are still haven’t been confirmed.
So the budget will have to be enacted in three days, or there’ll have to be an unusually short recess, going into Easter week or returning before 12 April, or the election will have to be after May 6, or the government will have to forgo £2bn a day in taxes from the dissolution until a budget is enacted.