A special cartoon by Marf
March 11th, 2010
Yet more polls on the way!
Marf, PB’s cartoonist, has been totally tied up for months in a big project but she’s still keen to maintain her links with PB.
The above drawing was done for the site’s 5th birthday last year and hasn’t been published before. So as we wait for tonight’s polling news I thought I’d give it a show now.
Marf’s work can be found here.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
First
???????????
1 Crikey it’s as competitve as ever on here
Should have stuck to one smiley…
How you doing Marf? Great to see you back on the site. I love the time on the clock, its soooooo Mike Smithson!
Apart from the dull as dishwater YG thing, what polls are due?
the link does not work
Good to see Rattie return.
What is the word below “sockpuppets” on the left?
Great cartoon, full of inside jokes!
6- astateofdenmark
ARS
8- wibbler
Lurkers, I think
One million, four hundred and seventy thousand, two hundred and eleventh!
11 Chris(from Bethesda)
No, above Lurkers but below Sockpuppets.
Excellent! Also great to hear we’ll be getting more from Marf.
There’s no Angus Reid on the list of pollsters
12- JohnLoony
The 1.5 million mark is getting quite close… It will certainly be reached before the GE
8 Wibbler, it’s ‘Lagershed’
Evening all
Perhaps there should be a market on the number of polls in the next 56 days…assuming we’ll be voting on May 6th.
I reckon 120 national opinion polls plus another 30 more specialist polls covering regions and marginals.
Good old tim! As ever he gives a peerless insight into the tactics and obsessions of New Labour. On the last thread he revealed how he was now planning ‘jokes’ about the fragrant Mrs Cameron. I think we all know what that means. tim is a credit to this site!
FPT. 472. “Democracy” means rule by the people, not “free choice”. If the masses are monolithic in wanting something which restricts some elements of free choice, you can criticise it for reducing choice but not for being undemocratic.
15 This is a cartoon from a year ago as it says in the article
If its 4.15 AM it must be Scotland.
19 - I thought the problem was that they’d all been written already …
15 tim READ THE THREAD BEFORE COMMENTING..IT USUALLY HELPS…..
15- tim
The cartoon was made last year, before ARS arrival.
I thought it was PtP at first.
19 Stark, the funniest thing about tim’s post was accusing others of being ’squalid’. Really.
Nothing is beneath him when it comes to smearing, so Cameron and wife can expect the worse from him and his fellow travellers on the McBride Express.
24/25 ‘tim’ regularly asks questions about a thread topic where the ‘answer’ is plain as day in the original article.
This is a classic example.
Poll questions:
What time is ARS expected and is it national or marginal?
Excepting ARS and YouGov, are we expecting anything else tonight?
Welcome back, Marvellous Marf. Great cartoon.
We love Marf. More! More!
Did anyone watch the 6? I missed it. How were the troughers reported, and did they headline?
Evening all.
Anyone know when AR/YouJoke will be making an appearance..?
Great cartoon, can’t wait to see more of Ratty later in the year, Marf can come too I suppose.
Cameron on Titchmarsh now online http://bit.ly/afEArE
Grrr, I can’t see it properly on my crackberry. I’ll look forward to a good look when I get home.
Not being a betting man, Could someone please let me know..
1) What are the odds a Conservative majority of> 50 seats.
2) Do you always get a better price on line, or is it the same price in a bookies? (I know some bookies are on line only)
I see that Ratty doesn’t think much of pollsters either.
19 - Calm down Stark, Samantha Cameron will get no baiting from me along the lines exhibited towards Sarah Brown by the usual suspects on here.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/dailypolitics/andrewneil/2010/03/byrne_set_tongues_wagging.html
32: ‘Did anyone watch the 6? I missed it. How were the troughers reported, and did they headline?’
Yes they did. Elliot Morley was filmed leaving the courthouse amid much crowd heckling and jostling reporters; he looked like a lost soul. Tory Lord chap was interviewed in country lane and seemed oddly at ease.
In case anyone hasn’t seen it yet a good piece on Channel 4 yesterday nailing Brown’s bare-faced lie that the defence budget has gone up each year.
“Who said grieving mothers were off limits?”
It’s easy to get carried away having fun in the mud-pit but i reckon the threshold of abuse for both Magda and SamCam before there’s a counter-reaction will be lower than it is / was for Baroness Glamis for the reason mentioned.
Welcome back Marf! And that cartoon sums up the mood perfectly as well.
42 - “It’s easy to get carried away having fun in the mud-pit”
What a strange definition of fun you use.
42 And Sam Cameron doesn’t come across as a Wintour type at all - she looks fresh-faced, homely, normal yet pretty.
Anyone hoping to smear her as some evil harpie has a job on their hands which I suspect will backfire spectacularly.
re 39 from that Byrne story The Chief Secretary said there would be “no big giveaway” come Budget Day (March 24th), no post-election summer Budget should Labour win the election
That means that the government plans on getting the Finance Bill enacted in full before dissolution. It took 6 weeks last year not 6 days. A pointer for 3rd June perhaps?
Sun Pol Editor on R5L: Tomorrow’s “tracker” poll is “certainly close.”
Excellent as ever! Great stuff Marf!
44 “What a strange definition of fun you use.”
Takes all sorts i guess - some people’s idea of fun is staring at graphs of completely fictional global warming scam data.
This is one of Marf’s best efforts. Another in-joke cartoon might be possible with Mike suffering hauntings at some equally early hour by posters of pbs past and present. Ratty’s body language could emphasize the weirdness.
That C4 news mystery story
krishgm Tonight at seven - captured, tortured and abused - the inside story of Iraqi kidnap told by Peter Moore - the man who survived it.
47. Oo-er, predictions?
I believe the narrative turned slightly against Labour today - for the first time in yonks. However that won’t show up yet, and until yesterday it was all anti-Tory.
Tory lead down to 3 points?
38: ‘Calm down Stark’
tim, I always get excited in the presence of great insights! Now I’m off to cook my supper - herbed chicken mince and red cabbage mash. An obscure classic!
52, 3pts or less would be my guess.
Tom Newton Dunn, the inexperienced Pol Editor of the Sun who has helped Labour close the poll gap more than any other person besides Cameron hints at further narrowing.
Well Done Tom Newton-Dunn
45 - Given your comments re Sarah Brown all over the internet, I suggest you give that subject a rest.
Are we not expecting an Angus Reid poll today?
52 - I suspect it will be another 2-pointer special.
Also they are going after the Unions re funding and strikes tomorrow and how Brown will face problems criticising strikes by the Union actually funding them…
“Tory lead down to 3 points?”
Meanwhile, in the real world….
Sounds like a 2 or 3 point YG lead.
Sarah Brown was accused, on here, as being ‘blatantly thick’ - met by a deafening silence from cowardly tories.
A fascinating article on how killer dogs are have become a hot commodity in some of the most abysmal/pro-Labour parts of the UK:
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/features/2887802/My-bull-terrier-could-kill-a-man-in-minutes.html
It’s interesting that the writer’s gang contact “Chris”, himself a killer dog owner, has more common sense and command of logic than the government, which thinks that killer dog insurance is the answer: “People with dangerous dogs won’t get insurance. It’s just a way of the Government making money out of law abiders. Dogs are a vital tool for gangs, they won’t give them up.”
Is it too late for Chris to run for Parliament in May? Maybe he and his killer dog could make an impression at Westminster.
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/features/2887802/My-bull-terrier-could-kill-a-man-in-minutes.html#ixzz0htbGgAbU
And just another update question:
What lead do the Lib Dems have over the Greens in the latest YouGov ‘tracker’?
55 ‘Given your comments re Sarah Brown all over the internet, I suggest you give that subject a rest.’
tim, that sounds like a threat of some kind.
Lagershed! My ticket to lexicographic immortality.
Great cartoon. Thakd Marf.
As its a daily tracker and they have to adjust for weightings and we are told its all fiendishly complex to do the results, how on earth can someone say at The Sun late afternoon/ early evening that the lead will be close ?? Just asking the question.
60 Gabble
I agree. Some Tories go too far.
Delete ‘blatantly’.
Angus Reid may be interesting this time, lead narrowing and others falling perhaps?
63 - Hardly, just pointing out a hypocrite.
Bunnco just read your election timing piece on channel 2. AFAIK the local elections can be postponed by Order in Council, i.e. a confirmatory vote late at night just before adjournment with only the whips probably being totally aware of what’s going on.
Also if you look on the Parliament website and click on the arrow to show the business for the week starting 29th March you get the message “The House will not be sitting this week” instead of “No business has been announced for this week”
So has the date for the recess already been set in government circles and is this admission a mistake? If they’re taking the whole week off before Easter then that only leaves two days of debate on the Finance bill before the recess and I doubt they’ll be back on Easter Tuesday, so you’d only have one day’s debate on 13th April after the recess and then dissolution if they’re going on 6th May.
65 - Polling finishes at 5pm each day I believe. As it is all computerised then it should be a quick job to do. When we had coup attempt 46785 recently I saw Peter Kellner on TV at about 6.30pm saying he was off to deliver the results.
41. ChrisA. Becuase Hattie denied it again in the HoC today, Channel 4 have had another go
http://blogs.channel4.com/factcheck/2010/03/11/update-gordon-brown-and-defence-spending/
69 - thsnks Nick. Makes one wonder why we all have to wait until 10pm.
The closer You Gove becomes the better.It might make Gordo cut and run.
How would they know the tracker poll so early…surely YouGov would still be number crunching on it
72 And if not then it gets the vote out - Tories can’t lose in this ground war as their supporters are more likely to actually get off their backsides.
#63, by EdP March 11th, 2010 at 6:58 pm
55 ‘Given your comments re Sarah Brown all over the internet, I suggest you give that subject a rest.’
tim, that sounds like a threat of some kind.
Unlikely, Farmer ‘Tupac is - assuming from his torrent of responses - a wheel-chair bound mulato with accompanying chip on’t shoulder. Shame he lacks any essence of humanity, but URW sends him hugs-and-kisses. Go figure….
72, depends what other polls (especially internal ones) are saying.
Plus, the Budget’s nailed on. There’s limited opportunity to cut and run.
Yay I log on this evening and there is a Marf cartoon, including Ratty!!
65/69 Maybe The Sun ordered ‘a close one’ for tonight?
Sounds like the leads down to 2% again on YouGov.
72 - http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/ce/Red_Wine_Glas.jpg
I presume you’ve read nothing about the budget date and the election then.
69 SthLondon Nick
That was the original intention until Tim Montgomerie lost the first printout by shuffling it into Eric Pickles’s papers.
The new procedure, which avoids such accidental errors, is to announce the results one election in arrears.
72
More than you read about the latest thread tim..
oops 82 was for tim at 80
My word - Mr Dale is busy today!
http://iaindale.blogspot.com/2010/03/it-wont-be-balls-who-will-be-squeezed.html
82 - But really MTF, even the casual observer knows that once the Budget date was set there was no chance of “cutting and running”.
Those school fees, is it really to late to get a refund?
85
In Brown’s world any date bar the last possible moment is cutting and running.
re 70 Scott P thanks. As a “son of the manse” I’m sure Brown is aware of John 8:44. The writer of the gospel could have been thinking of Brown specifically
for there is no truth in him. When he lies, he speaks his native language, for he is a liar and the father of lie
With apologies to any tories I have accused of obsessing over BBC bias, a message I have just sent to the BBC about PM on radio 4. I really do hope that the next government rediuces them to a ham radio operation run from a garden shed in Croydon.
“In the main coverage of this item beginning about 5.04 pm the headline announcement was of charges against “three MPs and the Conservative peer Lord Hanningfield”. There is no dispute that I am aware of that the three MPs are Labour MPs. No mention was made of this.
I do not particularly subscribe to the widespread notion that the BBC is politically biased one way or the other but the identification of Lord Hanningfield’s party and not that of the three MPs, with a General Election eight weeks away and with the Prime Minister making it a political issue at Wednesday’s PMQs that the Conservatives are anti-BBC is unarguably evidence of either bias, or a gross failure on the part of the programme’s editor to consider the point that the BBC must avoid not only bias but also any possible appearance of bias.”
86 - After the soldiers letter and the Monster PM story, a far better conspiracy theory is that Rupert Murdoch has allowed Camerons friend, his son James to assemble a poor team of inexperienced journalists who will discredit the Conservatives and help Ruperts friend back into power
84. Plato. Interesting comment…
At March 11, 2010 6:58 PM , Blogger M said…
Alastair Darling won’t be even remotely in contention for he is certain to lose his Westminster seat in Edinburgh to either the Tories or the SNP.
55
Is Tom any relation to Bill, the slimey MEP who waited to get reelected on one party list and then jumped ship to another party?
86. No, its just that “tracker/daily” polling is a waste of time and money. The results are always hopeless, whoever the pollster, sadly.
86 - I guess the remark was made with “tongue in the cheek” but if not whilst the methodology is clearly the subject of debate surely the basic integrity of Peter Kellner and YouGov is not.It would totally finish them if so.
88. Chris A
The tragedy is that Gordo probably actually believes he increased spending…
93 - It’s not clear that you understand the purpose of these polls.
89 - I listened to that item and was equally appalled.
89
They also didnt mention that the Labour MP’s(via their lawyer(s)) had tried (unsucessfully) to claim that the court had no jurisdiction.
99 link
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8561359.stm
96. I really don’t care what the “purpose” is, tbh.
99 – On a brighter note, at least the BBC has stopped referring to his Lordship as a HofL MP..!
100 Martin Coxall
You cynic.
Sorry if already posted, but this seems a very strongly worded tweet.
cathynewman
The FactCheck team has also been hard at work again nailing Gordon Brown’s lies on defence spending http://tinyurl.com/yaomrla
Links to this article,
http://blogs.channel4.com/factcheck/2010/03/11/update-gordon-brown-and-defence-spending/
91 - A clearly unhinged poster there Scott.
tell us what swing the SNP need.
97, 99 don’t get mad, get even. Seriously they are absolutely and unequivocally bang to rights on this one so anyone who heard this or listens on the link at 101 please write and complain:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/complaints/homepage/
The Marf carton is great, her best yet! Esp. like the sceptical cat!
Just did the PB poll, and hope it’s helpful to the management. BUT do think that there are some problems with some of the questions:
1. The wording of a number of Qs was flawed, for example Qs re: how many times respondent checked out & commented on PB. If I can remember rightly, one choice was, post at least once a day, then followed by a few days a week or something. My problem is with the “at least” because in my case, I often skip days or occassionally weeks at a time, but when I do come back, it’s often (no doubt too often in opinion of many!) multiple posts per day. SO in my answer, I compromised by averaging (apologies to Mike!) and said at least once a day.
2. The questions were too Brit-centric. Hasten to add that a high degree of UKism is most certainly appropriate. HOWEVER, appears to me there are enough nonBrit PBers to justify having some wider response choices, for example “New York Times” as a paper/website.
3. Why no questions re: political ideology, voting history & future intentions?
4. I appreciated the opportunity to give some unscripted feedback re: possible improvements to PB. HOWEVER, might have made more sense to save the open-ended response to the final question. That way, PBers would have been enabled & encouraged to provide a wider range of feedback.
The key point about the yougov polls (imo) is they’re having trouble finding enough Labour supporters who are motivated enough to fill in a poll.
I heard the Sun/R5 piece in the car - sounded like a tie or 1pt lead to me.
102 “The FactCheck team has also been hard at work again nailing Gordon Brown’s lies on defence spending”
Pretty huge deal vis a vis what remains of Labour’s working class vote if it could be made to stick i.e get it on the BBC 6 o’ clock news for a few days running. Doubt that’s possible though.
Re: the Marf above, would it make sense (or be possible) for PB to make arraignments with the artist to offer quality prints to interested PBers, as a means of fundraising for tech support, etc?
Would also point out (for the benefit of those not already aware) that it is possible to download a jpg by simply right clicking on the image and selecting the option “Save picture as”. Add that I hope this is acceptable to the artist, my own view (and I suspect her own) is that having her work on PB is a plus for her . . . and of course for all of us!
109 - would that it even got just one airing on BBC !!
106 Are you sure? I think they are finding rather too many.
109. It can’t do any harm. The BBC is a many headed monster and does feature the odd true blue tory (Paxman, J. at least) and there is just a chance that whoever adjudicates on the complaint is a different flavour from whoever is responsible for the news item.
On the question of bias it will be vey interesting to see how not only BBC but also Sky deal with the SamCam interview this weekend.
45 What is normal in your world may not be normal to other people. Sam Normal Cameron was brought up on a 3000 acre estate. She can trace her posh family roots back to 1590. She got her first job through nepotism as did David Cameron.
We are told that a tattoo and connections with dopey Tricky amounts to a social conscience, don’t think so.No secret weapon this one just a PR stunt e.g. ’she could have voted for Blair.’ Her wearing of an M&S dress at Conference, which had been especially modified for her made you realise that what you see is not what you get.
Cameron’s anodyne performance on Alan Titmarsh’s show last night confirms his shallow credentials, well done Dave for giving the public a view of your hollow personality. As Healey would have said,’The man lacks a hinterland.’ Too late to get one now Dave.
105, 109
Same intro line used on radio 5
obviously bbc policy
scum trots
110 – SSI, last year an auction was held of Marf originals at the annual PB get together in London, Marf was in attendance I believe and a good few pennies past hands for the favourite cartoons.
112 What makes you say Paxman is a Tory?
I am aware he has family who are but that means very little.
109.A more likely solution would be to privatise the BBC and give it to Murdoch.No political bias then just the pursuit of profit.
114 - despicable stuff Lily. Straight out of the Damien Macbride school. Shame on you.
113
lilly allen
same old scummy trot
114- Another example of how the general election campaign is already underway, or at least the Labour campaign is already underway.
118. Shame is an alien concept for Lily!
113. Amazing Illy, that sounds like a mirror image of you…
106/93
It wasnt meant to come across as an aspersion against YouGov, for that I apologise.
It was meant as a comparison between what may happen in 2010 with what did happen in 1992.
So Byrne, says there will be no tax rises.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/dailypolitics/andrewneil/2010/03/byrne_set_tongues_wagging.html
This is the same Liam byrne that claimed he was going to close hospitals for a day until he realised it might not be popular. Like Brown, byrne is not a remotely credible individual.
Labour will raise taxes through stealth if need be as Labour are now owned by unite and therefore can’t cut, and their growth forecasts just look laughable. The only question remaining is how many tens ob billions in new taxes we can expect.
111 “Are you sure? I think they are finding rather too many.”
I thought they were finding too few and then weighting them up?
125 They are.
Lilly, you truly are an icon of the left. The more you post the more I like it.
Please keep it up.
Re: BenM, Lilly Allen - are they supposed to be a parody, or is this really how pathetic New Labour supporters have become?
124 - ‘This is the same Liam byrne that claimed he was going to close hospitals for a day until he realised it might not be popular. Like Brown, byrne is not a remotely credible individual.’
Don’t tell Bob Sykes that. Byrne’s hospital hacking is the reason he’s now one of Gordon’s Tories.
113 Hello Lills.
Did you see that question about what single change OGH could make to the site which would most improve it?
You might want to suspend posting for a day or two while people are pondering that one.
I think Guardianistas should have their own TV channel there just needs to be an opposing Torygraph type channel to balance it up.
(or Old Torygraph for those who don’t like the current one.)
As this thread isn’t about anything in particular perhaps I may be allowed to mention cricket?
It seems unlikely that either captain, on the first morning of a test series, in fine weather, contemplating a good pitch with a history of taking spin in later stages, would seriously consider inserting the opposition. Yet there’s a curious little market on Betfair that values these options more or less equally:
Bangladesh v England - 1st Test - Toss Combination
IMHO there’s a quick 11% to be made backing both sides to win the toss and bat and I’ve left a few quid on the table for anyone who agrees with me. I may, of course, be eating humble pie for breakfast, because, as everyone knows, “It’s a funny game, cricket”.
Sean T if you get my e-mail address from OGH i might be able to move you in the direction of that train journey..
Re Samantha Cameron.
She was actually brought up on an estate on the outskirts of Scunthorpe in a house that’s now owned by the council. There’s not many that can say that.
See the details of where she lived here.
http://tinyurl.com/ygsdrzc
I see that the Lib Dems have selected a porn film director for Gravesham.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/kent/8563214.stm
I suppose that adds new meaning to getting more bang for your buck.
133- This site is the best travel agency ever.
Do we have any polls [other than YouGov] tonight?
135 - crumbs Mike - I neve knew that
137 if TNS are now polling weekly I think they are due today, Angus Reid also due
Should be ComRes on Sunday
Way OT - Must say I sympathize (to a degree) with the rant by Rep. Patrick Kennedy (D-RI) in the House re: the 24/7 coverage of the Massa-cist (though I prefer Massa-bation, er, as a figure of speech that is) contrasted with coverage of the 19th Afghan War & other slightly more substantive issues.
HOWEVER, must say that the self-destruction of ex-Rep. Eric Massa (D?-NY) does provide the nation some much-needed comic relief.
On of the most hilarious aspects, is his incredibly stupid suggestion (esp. post-Gary Hart!) that people/journos/whomever, “ask my wife, and the 10k sailors I served with in the Navy . . .”
Don’t think the mrs. is returning phone calls. BUT reporters are currently working their way through the fleet . . . and the responses so far ain’t what you’d call helpful for Massa.
The quality of Labour astroturfers is not what they used to be.
134 - Only a miniature railway station?
How common is that.
Although before Dave became a dad, it is said that he put the something into Scunthorpe.
Mike - are you able to tell us what time of an evening you are given the embargoed YouGov daily tracker results please?
Re 113. So silly Lilly’s back again.
Perhaps she would be more credible if she could spell properly
It’s TITCHMARSH
There’s only one ‘Tit’ round here and she can’t spell…..
As for Hinterlands. Labour has turned this country into a hinterland. They must be so proud…
Just so we are clear here one among the definitions of hinterland
hinterland - a remote and undeveloped area
So Cameron is not ‘remote and undeveloped’. I’m sure that is a real disadvantage to him…….
Tsk Tsk Tsk
http://www.thefreedictionary.com/hinterland
No abusive comments tonight eh, Mike?
139. Thanks. Can’t be bothered to log back in for a YouGov.
Might aswell sacrifice a pigeon and pray to Woden.
Oh great, I’ve been moderated now along with SeanT.
Has the moderation policy changed since that Evening Standard Article?
Mr Eagles, your League of Dockside Hookers will be pleased.
147 - I’m persona non grata with the League of Dockside Hookers.
146
Me too. Not for anything Ms Allen related though…
Hello? Hell=o?
*plaintively lonely voice lost in wilderness of moderation*
How about I call Lilly Allen a p**tr**ing wh*r*?
Grrr. That Mike Smithson, he relies on your wit and vim to make his site a success, then when all the posh people deck him in the ermine of fame, suddenly he doesn’t want to know his potty-mouthed guttersnipe commenters who GOT HIM THERE IN THE FIRST PLACE.
Slapheaded dork.
re 143. Peter Kellner generally sends me a text with the embargoed numbers at between 8.30pm and 9pm - so I have not got it yet.
Hopefully we will have the latest AR poll out as well tonight.
Interesting that both operate using a polling panel and use newspaper readership as a key weighting measure. The head of AR in the UK is also an ex-YouGov executive.
re 146. Moderation is now done by the Comments Manager.
Evening all and just catching up on today’s threeds.
I wonder if Anna Span will be directing the LibDem PPBs. Could be interesting. Her film Uniform Behaviour certainly didnt leave much to the imagination
If YouGov deliver up another nightly poll with a Tory lead of under 6 and the pre-adjusted lead at around 15, is it not time someone complained to the BPC in order to get Mr Kellner and chums to actually justify such juggling on an enormous scale.
OT. I’m off to Edinburgh on Saturday for the rugby and staying for a couple of days. Any suggestions of where to go/avoid or anything worth checking out?
Major Obamacare development: “The Senate Parlimentarian has ruled that President Barack Obama must sign Congress’ original health care reform bill before the Senate can act on a companion reconciliation package.”
This is from Roll Call, link not working…
Moderation is now done by the Comments Manager.
That last interview was a toughy, but I was pleased to get the job.
150 - Sean, Remind me to buy you a copy of How to make friends and influence people.
Picking up on something that was mentioned yesterday by Nick Robinson on the polling effects of Labour’s budget, there is a piece on Anthony Wells’ site here from 2009:
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1870
Also, there were some interesting questions on why people were switching to voting Tory in one of this week’s “tracker” polls:
For those who said they had never voted Conservative:
Will you consider voting Conservative at the general election?
Yes,I shall definitely vote for them 4%
Yes I will consider doing so 16%
No 73%
Not sure 8%
To only those who would definitely/consider voting for them:
Why will you now consider voting for them (tick all that apply)?
I want Labour removed from power 48%
David Cameron has changed the party for the better 34%
The Conservatives are now more moderate 26%
First time I can vote 20%
I/my family would be better off under the Tories 12%
Today’s party shares my values 11%
Other reasons 16%
Don’t know 4%
There are other bits and bobs in there as well…
http://www.yougov.co.uk/extranets/ygarchives/content/pdf/TheSun%20results_1st-time-con-voters.pdf
What is the comments manager and why does it hate me?
151. Er, what? Who the F is the “comments manager”?
Has pb been castrated? Have you been spayed? We were managing perfectly well without a “comments manager”.
Concerned Spouter of Lovingly-Crafted Bile in Primrose Hill (borders)
151 - Comments Manager? I see.
I’m not objecting on freedom of speech grounds. I was quite proud of my witty observation, and want the masses to see it.
Anyone who found Lilly’s post offensive are lacking perspective. Her comments on Sam Cam are par for the course with the females posters posting about politicians wives and her comments on Cameron don’t come near the insults thrown at Brown.
Which I guess is why none of you seem to be noticing the political earthquake thats going on under the Conservatives at the moment.
152 - Thanks Mike. Still wondering how the Sun Pol Editor could speak so certainly about tonights poll some 4 hrs before 10pm and 2hrs plus before they are released in embargoed form. I had assumed (clearly I was wrong) that the time between poll closure and release to your good self amongst others was used in working out the results.
That last interview was a toughy, but I was pleased to get the job.
by tim March 11th, 2010 at 8:09 pm
Remember tim, you can only work 16 hours before they cut your benefits.
158. It’s only human.
Possibly.
I wonder if Anna Spen will give Lib Dem Mps a pron name.
Lembit Opik is probably already one in Estonian although Ming Campbell would be a challenge.
At least Jenny Tonge has been blackballed.
153. thedevonloft
Traditionally you would end up in Diggers (The Athletic Arms) before the match
http://www.lonelyplanet.com/scotland/edinburgh/entertainment-nightlife/399457
158 - Nobody hates you Martin, I for one love you.
I think “comments manager” is OGH’s tights-wearing superhero alter ego.
161 – Roger, do you honestly think Lily Allen (bot) is a female..?
Mind you, with your track record - you probably do.
re 165. And with Lembit we’ll be talking of a “Well-hung parliament”.
162 - problem is Roger that we all know that its a deliberate ploy of Labour to smear SamCam and I for one loath that approach.
re 161 Roger is it an insult to call Brown a snivelling, bare-faced liar when he’s been caught well and truly with his pants on fire this time?
170 - I was going to get woolsack in, but got scared of the moderator.
Mike I have just scrolled down to the post about the PB survey, cos I knew it was there, in order to complete it. My point is the link in the current post doesnt exactly leap out at one - you might get more responses if you put it in caps or something.
155, tim - LOL. . .AFOTF!!!!
With the news that the Lib Dems have a candidate who directed pron movies.
I’m curious what chances you think that the conservatives would select a solicitor as candidate, who has an ex who has a 2hr home made movie involving said solicitor doing all sorts of depraved things with his ex and 2 other women?
I’ve now got the embargoed YouGov figures which will be published here at 10pm - hopefully with the AR poll which is also due.
177 - Is it interesting?
161. You Don’t Get It, Do You? fetus-snorkeller*.
It wasn’t the fact that Lilly Allen came on here and aimed some lame snide sad little jibes at Sam Cam that was so enraging, it was the fact that she so simply and blatantly trotted out some McBride ish smears, given to her no doubt by a party hack, or even her party employer.
She pretends to be another commenter, but she is quite evidently a Labour blow fly.
That’s what differentiates the lefties from the righties on here: all too many of the leftwingers are smelly and ugly party droids, in disguise, hidden under one lower case name. The rightwingers, in comparison, are a fractious and rambunctious bunch, often insulting but at least authentically themselves.
To pay you a rare compliment, you are also, obviously, yourself. Lilly Allen and Ben M and susanna - Not.
They demean the site.
*I’m having to think up absurd insults to get round the Comments Manager
178 - I guess we will now be bombarded with the uncertain sounds from the twitterati until we get the real thing at 10pm
@165:
I have seen Blackballed 1 through 7 and Jenny Tonge was thankfully in none of them.
176 - TSE, if one of the said ‘women’ in the home movie just happened to be on the select committee – you’ve got a pretty good chance I would imagine.
176, TSE - pbers will need more evidence to evaluate this. SO could you kindly supply link?????
(Though must say, is sight of someone getting scrwed by lawyer really all that shocking?)
58 “Certainly close” could be a similar poll to this morning’s for all that we know.
161. “all the female posters” indeed. Scratch a bien pensant Guardianista and find a golf club vice-president manque. Back to their ironing-boards with them and let’s have no more of this PWF.
As to the rest of your thoughtful post, rog: we can multi-task.
180 twitter should be ignored, unless it’s a very reputable journalist hinting at the figures.
182/183 - Who said I was the solicitor involved? I’m pure and innocent I’ll have you know.
183 - I don’t have a copy of it. Sadly. Was one of my finest ever performances, so I am told, by all those who have seen it.
154 The Senate Parliamentarian has ruled that President Barack Obama must sign Congress’ original health care reform bill before the Senate can act on a companion reconciliation package.
That is huge - Mrs Pelosi will not be best pleased..
161 SeanT
Do not besmirch the good name of susanna(h?). Her rags to riches story was an inspiration to us all.
I am not ashamed to admit that I cried.
So tonights QT has an all female audience and Kelvin MacKenzie on the panel. What chances that Kelvin will say something deliberately controversial.
161. Roger. Lilly lacks the ability to be offensive…..
188- Biden has the right to overrule the parliamentarian, but for him to do so on such a high-profile bill would make the process look even more dodgy than it already looks. And Pelosi has to be concerned that this will only serve to turn off the already-nervous wavering centrist House Dems who would cast the deciding votes on the Senate bill.
some sharp moves towards NOM on Betfair today…
Am I right in assuming that the election date is likely to be the day of local elections - if this is so I wonder whether this will benefit the main parties at the expense of others with voters choosing to vote for the minority parties in the locals and the mains in the general election. If this is the case are the locals nationwide or are they only in selected councils - and what effect will that have
190, he should. An all female audience is ridiculous. I hope they have some lunatic feminazi man-haters.
195 - The rest of the panel is Justine Greening, Caroline Flint, Jo Swinson and Monty Don.
190. Whatever Kelvin says, they will be too busy exchanging knitting patterns to listen to him.
179 You don’t own any site so push off to Koh Samui and see big Buddah. Has your so called writing any literary merit or is it banal and worthless like your stereotypical comments? At least try to be interesting when you insult people, you are boring.
Time for Simpsons style vigilantism
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/manchester/8561513.stm
Seriously though the values of Labour’s underclass are absolutely sickening. It is hardly a shock though given that rubbish like Brown, mcbride and campbell are daily teaching them how to lie, cheart, smear, and bully.
@196:
Monty Don, radical Sapphic activist.
196, it’s not too bad a panel. Swinson annoys me though. A rented beard (a la Life of brian) would suit her. Silly lefty.
Another politician could be prosecuted……….
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/Politics/Another-Politician-Could-Be-Prosecuted-Over-Expenses-Scandal/Article/201003215571969?lpos=Politics_Carousel_Region_1&lid=ARTICLE_15571969_Another_Politician_Could_Be_Prosecuted_Over_Expenses_Scandal
201 - You don’t have to listen to her. Just look at her. It’s what I do.
201 - Swinson irritates me as well.
That poll in the Sun shows why Labour are down to 25/28%
25% of people that voted for them last time may not vote for them this time. There is no sign they are looking to go Lib/Dem, so how can Labour be within 4% of the Cons?
194 Davey Tibs
There are no Scottish local elections this year. They will take place in May 2012.
How ironic Caroline Flint’s taking part in such an overtly staged event - surely it’s just using women for window-dressing
@199:
I hear lots of people are taking the law into their own hands nowadays.
Vigilantism: because kicking a paediatrician to death is an honest mistake.
202 Maggie Thatcher Fan
If I had to guess, it would be Eric Illsley (£6000 phantom council tax, according to the Telegraph) who was mentioned in a number of news reports yesterday.
198 Lilly I own a site in excess of 40k hits per day. I think you are a boring ill educated, ill informed labour apparatchik so why dont you piss off and leave politics to the big boys or we could endlessly discuss art, knitting, popsongs etc…
203, I don’t want to see her either. Doesn’t float my boat in any way.
@203:
Srsly? She looks like an anthropomorphic personification of a suet pudding.
206 I always wondered why local elections happen at the same time. Why don’t local councils have them according to their own, local, timetable?
It would be interesting to see whether past General Election results get skewed by simultaneous local elections
211 - I guess I really do have low standards.
213- ““At least try to be interesting when you insult people, you are boring.”
Possibly the least true statement ever to appear on the pages of PB.com.
Massa must be a good bet for the F1 championship at 11/1
from last night’s David Letterman Show:
“The top ten questions Rod Blagojevich asked himself before appearing on ‘Celebrity Apprentice.’”
(asked by Blago himself, as DL’s featured guest)
10. “Can I get paid in shampoo?”
9. “Would I rather stay unemployed than work for Trump?”
8. “Should I bring my attorney?”
7. “Do I have anything better to do?”
6. “Is there any chance NBC will replace me with Leno?”
5. “Can I get paid in conditioner?”
4. “Haven’t I been through enough?”
3. “How about my own show, ‘The Haircut Ref’?”
2. “How come I’m not a governor and Paterson is?”
1. “Will my hair get along with Trump’s hair?”
218, I bloody hope he is, Mr. Tibs, I tipped him at 10/1
216, I hope your wife doesn’t peruse this site…
From OGH
http://twitter.com/MikeSmithsonPB/status/10338754887
Intriguing…
208 Yeah ok, I don’t really believe in vigilantism, but I am pretty tired of hearing about the truly deserving poor being bullied to death by useless wasters.
194 yes general election and local election probably will be on the same day (but not parish councils as that’s not legally possible), but whether that day will be 6th May, or some other day is anyone’s guess.
Apologies for being late to the party with this one, but she lives in Tunbridge Wells !! What will Mrs Dale say ??
http://www.kentnews.co.uk/kent-news/Hardcore-porn-director-to-shoot-for-Parliament–newsinkent33730.aspx
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/kent/8563214.stm
Mind you, it is for the Lib Dems…
MikeSmithsonPB
YouGov daily poll out on PB at 10pm. Also tonight the latest PB/Angus Reid poll. Will they both be moving in the same direction?
What’s OGH up to now?
220 - Maybe they don’t OGH would know so perhaps he is teasing.
219… I was toying with the idea of an each-way double on Denman for the Gold Cup and Massa…
202. Another labour politician?? is this what gordon means when he says labour are for the many, the tories for the few
219 - She has visited this site on occasions.
And an audio interview..
http://www.kentonline.co.uk/kentonline/news/2010/march/11/porn_director_in_mp_bid.aspx
She quotes Margaret Thatcher as an influence - the mind boggles..
226, horse racing (presuming that’s the Gold Cup thingy) really isn’t my forte at all.
Predicting F1, early on at least, is going to be bloody difficult. However, have got one or two thoughts that should (with any luck) make it a little easier.
Practice starts tomorrow
209
It could be this lady.
A LABOUR peer who lives in the East End of London has claimed about £100,000 in parliamentary expenses on a flat in Kent that neighbours say has been unoccupied for years.
Baroness Uddin, who worked closely with Tony and Cherie Blair, has been claiming allowances intended for peers living outside London although she resides only four miles from the Lords.
Inquiries by The Sunday Times have established that the baroness bought a two-bedroom flat in Maidstone in 2005 and has named it as her main home to claim almost £30,000 a year in accommodation expenses from the House of Lords.
Residents from the five other flats in the same block as Uddin’s property all say they have never seen her there. They could see through the windows that the bedrooms were unfurnished.
Yvonne Adams, who has lived next to the flat for three years, said: “I can’t emphasise enough how no one has lived there. They just haven’t. I know that for a fact.”
192 & etc, S&S - uht ohh, looks like Phillipe M is going to be taking a bath, sans bubbles. But then he’s only betting with loonies, eh?
223. Well I hope she doesn’t get caught laying down on the job….
FPT on the cool graphs “What causes up-ticks? We don’t know…yet. However, this could just be timing. Governments can spend money, make popular announcements, and time elections to recoveries.”
Methinks it’s pre-election bribes but obviously that doesn’t work when the govt. has no cash e.g Callaghan and Princess McDoom.
192 - here’s the link
Ruling Kills an Option for Moving Health Bill
March 11, 2010, 2:30 P.M.
By David M. Drucker
Roll Call Staff
The Senate Parliamentarian has ruled that President Barack Obama must sign Congress’ original health care reform bill before the Senate can act on a companion reconciliation package, senior GOP sources said Thursday.
The Senate Parliamentarian’s Office was responding to questions posed by the Republican leadership. The answers were provided verbally, sources said.
House Democratic leaders have been searching for a way to ensure that any move they make to approve the Senate-passed $871 billion health care reform bill is followed by Senate action on a reconciliation package of adjustments to the original bill. One idea is to have the House and Senate act on reconciliation prior to House action on the Senate’s original health care bill.
Information Republicans say they have received from the Senate Parliamentarian’s Office eliminates that option. House Democratic leaders last week began looking at crafting a legislative rule that would allow the House to approve the Senate health care bill, but not forward it to Obama for his signature until the Senate clears the reconciliation package.
Meanwhile, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) moved Thursday to put Senate Republicans on the defensive over health care, sending a letter to Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) in which he dared the GOP to vote against reform.
Reid also defended the Democrats’ use of reconciliation to get a final health care reform bill to the president’s desk, noting that the bulk of health care reform was approved under regular order via the package that cleared the Senate on Christmas Eve. Reid also emphasized that Republicans have used the procedure several times over the years.
However, Reid also promised in the letter that Republicans would have ample opportunity to amend the reconciliation package.
“Reconciliation is designed to deal with budget-related matters, and some have expressed doubt that it could be used for comprehensive health care reform that includes many policies with no budget implications. But the reconciliation bill now under consideration would not be the vehicle for comprehensive reform — that bill already passed outside of reconciliation with 60 votes,” Reid wrote to McConnell.
“Reconciliation will not exclude Republicans from the legislative process. You will continue to have an opportunity to offer amendments and change the shape of the legislation. In addition, at the end of the process, the bill can pass only if it wins a democratic, up-or-down majority vote. If Republicans want to vote against a bill that reduces health care costs, fills the prescription drug ‘donut hole’ for seniors and reduces the deficit, you will have every right to do so,” he said.
http://cdn.rollcall.com/media/44110-1.html
230…I think Brawn got lucky last season getting the advantage of the disputed diffuser..they’d bagged a hatful by the time the big boys had theirs…I can’t believe that Ferrari wouldn’t have been working on something special during their poor season last year
For one, I applaud LibDems for their heroic efforts to restore to its former glory, one of the historic adornments of perfidious Albion, sadly neglected in recent years by other UK parties. Namely the Great British Political Sexxx Scandal.
214 John Lilburne
As far as I know, the Scottish system of having local elections on a single day stems from the 1889 County Councils (Scotland) Act - the same one that crushed Easterross’s (and my) Cromarty under the yoke of the Rossmen.
236, disagree. Brawn were within the rules as were two other teams. Likewise, McLaren’s diffuser is disputed and will be ruled on pre-Bahrain. However, they have a backup, so they should be ok.
The Ferrari looks good. It should be between them, McLaren and Red Bull. However, the Mercedes is getting a new bit of aero, and another team or two could come into play.
198 Lilly I own a site in excess of 40k hits per day. I think you are a boring ill educated, ill informed labour apparatchik so why dont you piss off and leave politics to the big boys or we could endlessly discuss art, knitting, popsongs etc…
by richard dodd March 11th, 2010 at 8:37 pm
Richard which type of site is that?
My best site is only 1,000 aday, and it is top in Google, and most search engines.
I have found this year the return on Google adverts are down 50%, have you found that?
[179] - She pretends to be another commenter, but she is quite evidently a Labour blow fly.
I could just as easily claim that she was transparently a Tory agent acting as an agent provocateur to create a right-left argument the left could only lose.
It wouldn’t get us far, though. I can see why you reply to such posts - always nice to have an excuse to launch into a rant given that you are denied the opportunity of ranting at Brown et al - but the site would be better off if they were ignored.
Mike, are you holding back the results of the AR poll to take the wind out of the sails of the YouGov poll, shortly after it has been announced?
Tonight’s polls.
I’ve heard a rumour that Yougov have the parties on 35% each, and that AR will have the Conservative lead in “low single figures.”.
I stress. It’s only a rumour.
229. …and in a dramatic twist, it turns out she was Mark Senior all along!
241..I finance it myself…no idea what google pay..
240…sorry, I don’t dispute the diffuser was legal and I fully applaud their innovation…it’s just that without that advantage in the first 7 races I guess they’d have finished well off the top in the constructors championship
232- Well, I thought Obamacare was dead back in late January after Brown’s victory and after congressional Democrats appeared to throw up their hands and resign themselves to defeat, so I’m not taking anything for granted anymore. This bill is like Glenn Close in Fatal Attraction… I still expect it to leap out of the tub at any moment with knife in hand.
However, this ruling does pose yet another substantial obstacle to the bill’s chances at a time that it would appear the Dems can’t really afford any more obstacles in their way. Whatever happens, I’m sure we both wish Philippe well in his future gambling endeavors!
Note to commenter calling himself Gordon Brown
Publishing comments with false polling figures here is something that I take very seriously. You have been banned and your post deleted.
ohmygawd. The Thomas Hypnopompic Prediction is coming true. A Labour Victory.
Remember I recommended Labour Most Seats when they were 7.4
Dammit.
239 It’s the same in England of course. But why? I would simply lay down that no councillor may be elected for more than a four year term, and let them get on with it. If there is no need for central control, there should be none.
Re: the LibDem’s answer to La Cicciolina (from the other side of the lens) the best part of the story (see 1st link at #223 E’B'P, above) is this gem at the bottom (ahem) of the Kent News story:
“Become a movie star by posting your video on our Your Kent TV service. Simply log-on to YourKentTV.co.uk and follow the upload instructions.”
244, hmm.
If that’s true it would be bad news, but also rather inexplicable.
247, it’s hard to say. Their advantage was so big they shifted research to the 2010 car early on rather than developing the 2009 further as other teams did.
245 - think that would be a pretty suspect rumour for AR, Sean would it not as Mike said not that long ago that the figures were still being worked on.
TLZ, Lilly’s droning allows people to poke her with a stick in the same way as small boys do with road kill. It provides a morbid fascination to observe the purification and maggots that are inevitably associated with road kill. Sadly she thinks she is the wily fox rather than the splatted vermin.
ref 244 how???
253…what is the position re Alonso / Massa ..unofficial team orders do you think..if so will Alonso sulk again if it goes against him
254 Who knows?
FPT 191 “In light of the Glenrothes postal vote debacle, can they simply go to housing estates where immigrants are living and register them?”
Registering them isn’t enough. If you said “politics” to a Tamil they’d 90% start talking about Ceylon. They’d need to actually get them to fill in postal votes. It’ll be happening, especially where BNP are standing, but hindered greatly by manpower especially as the bulk of their activists would have a problem with that level of dishonesty.
251 John Lilburne
Seems fair, bot of course that would leave it open to the political leadership of each council simply to call an election at a time which suited their party.
Clearly such a system would be so contrary to democracy that no decent democratic system would tolerate such an arrangement.
Indeed as far as I know “no decent democratic system” does.
Maybe the Sun is on the wind up and the lead is higher than 5% tonight.
257, Alonso is, probably rightly, considered the number one (I think). However, Massa is very quick and his odds are too long considering Alonso’s.
Well I’ll be interested in the AR figures to see if they are detecting any kind of trend, despite the relative discrepancies in their Labour figures. Now what is puzzling with YouGov is that as ICM and Populus have shown the Tories back at 40-39 they continue to show toplines some 3-4% lower. I just find that a bid odd as for the last couple of years the pollsters have got the Tory shares pretty much spot on and have all been in the same close range. Why that should now change (or one of the pollsters felt it needed re-weighting) is what puzzles me. As I said yesterday, this is the first GE where Labour have not been the top party since 1997 and the first time the changes that were made in the wake of the 1992 debacle have been tested when the political pendulum is moving. I am intrigued as to whether or not the assumptions still work.
I’m going to guess a 2% Con lead with YouGov (36/34) and a 7% Con Lead with Angus Reid (37/30)
When is AR poll out?
244. Not unrelatedly, today I did a ring-around of mates I haven’t spoken to since I got back from Thailand.
As I did this, I started adding up how many of my friends will potentially and personally benefit from Labour remaining in office (I confirmed this by simply asking in certain circs).
When I say benefit, I mean they are either employed by the state, or their wives are employed by the state, or they are on tax credits, or their wives are on child tax credits etc etc (hence they theoretically have more to fear from an austere Tory government).
It turned out that probably only 1 in 5 of my friends have no contact whatsoever with state employment or state benefits.
Now, if you asked most of my mates who would be best to run the country, you would get a Niagara of hatred and contempt directed at Labour, and a lot of people saying Tory or at least “Not Labour”.
But how many of these people will actually VOTE against Labour, knowing it may damage them personally and financially?
There is one very big reason for Labour’s recovery.
Who cares about polls. Tomorrow’s Sun has Mystic Meg’s election prediction.
262…as with all betting it’s all down to value..11/1 will do me and at least it adds a bit of interest to the season…although I cannot wait for it to start
253 One’s natural reaction is to fear the worst. There have been some decent polls for the Conservatives this week (eg ICM, Populus, Harris) but because Yougov is always the most up to date, one fears it’s the most accurate.
If ICM etc were conducting the same exercise, they might very well be showing a different outcome. ICM, after all, show very little change from the start of the year.
266 - Is she still around?
266. David just prepare us. Out of ten how bad is YouGov for team blue?
266
do tell….
194. Rod Crosby “some sharp moves towards NOM on Betfair today…”
NOM was 2.84 when I backed it yesterday morning and it stands at 2.86 tonight.
I’m getting a bit exhausted by these 10pm YouGov polls. It’s like waiting for a ball-by-ball cricket blog to refresh when checking that England haven’t lost another wicket.
273 Usually, I prefer to wait till the following morning.
But, tonight, I’m in the mood to take it on the chin.
Mystic Meg is still around. She forsees one man will get more votes than another man and the PM will have a first name begining with the letter D or G.
270 - GIN. No comment.
274 - I knew all these discussions about Lib Dem s3x scandals would start to have an effect, Mr Fear
260 I was more thinking of allowing councils to fix their own fixed-term election rotas. So you could have annual or biennial elections, quadrennial general elections, annual tranches of councillors elected (as happens with English districts at the moment) and you could hold it on the third Thursday of September or the second Saturday of April etc as the local council deemed suitable. You could even allow the decision to be made locally to use a proportional system (although that might have to be done with more care as councils could probably find ways of selecting electoral systems that favoured a particular party).
I believe that the SNP, so keen on decentralisation of the UK down to “country” level, continues to mandate that local councils all have the same electoral system and vote on the same day. Why?
275. Sounds bad….
268. Labour’s recovery is not *inexplicable*. There was another telling poll-stat in today’s Guardian.
More people now admire the Labour party’s education policy than admire the Tories’. A few weeks ago the Tories led by 10 on this issue.
How has this dramatic change occurred? Given that Labour’s education policies have been a total disaster - PROVEN by our plummeting place on the OECD tables, and the decrease in social mobility, and the debauching of exam standards - despite the trillions pumped in - the Tories should still be miles ahead.
But they are not. Why? Because Labour have stolen a few of the Tories’ most likeable policies, and they have successfully painted the Tories as the party of private schools and privelige.
And that’s it.
The lesson for Tories, if they lose this GE, is that they must NEVER EVER ELECT an Etonian leader and a Harrovian Chancellor EVER AGAIN.
Such a team of toffs is simply not papabile, even today.
274. Sean F, can you explain whats going on at the moment with these polls and the apparent collapse on Conservative support??
67 - “Hardly, just pointing out a hypocrite.”
Hello mr pot……
Re: swingback in general and Labour 2010 recovery in particular, it’s interesting that, with one exception (Wilson-Callaghan) the charts on voter mood on previous thred, show a final uptick for all administrations.
275 David Roe
So it’s not James Gordon Brown then.
Sean that rumour is rubbish which is why I have banned a commenter who was trying to spread it.
283 - Bah. Got me.
Why do these people bother? I really don’t get it. Just sit back, wait for the figures, then s**t yourself.
280. Don’t forget, Sean might be teasing us, and winding up lefties, so they will be disappointed by an actually quite reasonable poll.
It will be interesting to see whether IF the Tories are down again in the polls the muttering and whispering starts…there is the potential for the civil war to start again…will they implode ?
279. Sean the drop in support for Conservative policies comes from its general drop in support. You tend to find the public like the policies of the party is supports, irrespective of what those policies actually are. As the Conservatives overall share is dropping its to be expected that support for all their policies drops as well.
279 - Didn’t George Osborne go to the same school as Nick Clegg? I don’t think it matters generally where Tory politicians go to school - if they didn’t go to Eton then the electorate at the very least thinks that they would have liked to, which is arguably worse.
I remember polls showing that the public thought Hague was public school educated whilst Blair went to a comp.
ooh the rumour is rubbish…good
SeanT
The next First Lord of the Treasury will be the 19th Old Etonian to hold the office.
The next Chancellor will not be an Old Harrovian.
288. “will they implode ?”
Did they in 2007? That was Browns big miscalculation in 2007. He thought that his poll bounce and talk of an early election would see the Tories implode at their conference. In the end the opposite happened and the rest if just rock and roll…
re 280. That BBC poll was carried out by ComRes and was NOT politically weighted.
Ignore.
291 - Osborne went to St. Pauls - the girls version of which Harperson went to. Clegg went to Westminster.
[290] - You tend to find the public like the policies of the party is supports, irrespective of what those policies actually are.
You would have thought it would work the other way around, but it’s a funny old world..
277 John Lilburne
I don’t think you need to ask why every party wants a single date - it suits them (as opposed to the people). As someone who heartily dislikes the tyranny of the parties, I want the discussion to go much further than that as to the functions of local councils and why their needs to be a commonality of structure in a country as geographically disparate as Scotland.
279 Not having a go,or even being critical-may I pass an observation-the sentiments you close with are not far from those at 113 which aroused howls from the right on here- I am not passing judgement on what you or the poster at 113 said,but for 113 to be howled at but you not to be would surely,logically,be moral hypocrisy by right-winger posters on here-not your goodself,I hasten to add,as you were not invloved in the attack on 113.
P.S Hope the publishing is going well!
“I remember polls showing that the public thought Hague was public school educated whilst Blair went to a comp.
by alex March 11th, 2010 at 9:22 pm”
The lesson being: the public presume Tories are inbred public school toffs (just as they presume Labour are union funded PC shysters), so the Tories have to do all they can to counter this assumption.
Having a multi-millionaire Etonian leader and a multi-millionaire Harrovian chancellor in the middle of the greatest recession since the war is, in that light, not ideal, image-wise.
Blair won three times because he was so obviously not yer typical grasping chippy Labourite. Thatcher won three times because she was not yer typical snobbish patronising Tory.
Geddit?
Can someone answer a query about political weighting? It seems to me that there is a danger that it could potentially lead to a party’s support rising in the polls whilst it is dropping in reality.
Because, especially with online polling, as a party’s support falls, many of its natural political supporters won’t bother to complete the surveys. Which could lead to the strongest supporters attracting a greater weighting over time to compensate and to ensure that the ‘quotas’ are reached.
294…well we’ll see. I wonder whether Cameron & Osborne are just too “soft”…I’m no fan of Brown and Balls but they are a formidable pair if it becomes a real scrap
285 Mike S, which Sean, what rumour?
re 300. Osborne did NOT go to Harrow.
300 - who is this Harrovian you are talking about?
297. Yes, this is always the most depressing aspect of polling. You would hope that support for good policies would lead to general party support, but it never does. Its always overall party support first, policies second (the exception can be economic support, which can drive party support)
304, 305. Apols. I thought he was Harrovian. You say he is St Paulian? Same same.
A top public school in London but not quite up there with Eton.
The point abides.
300 …I disagree…Thatcher won three elections for a simple reason her opponents in those elections were unelectable - Callaghan, Foot, Kinnock.
Hello nervous Tories, its Uncle tim your betting Santa with a tip.
Get yourselves over to Ladbrokes and take the
10/1 Con Seats 275-99
9/2 Con Seats 300-324
A cracking bet to keep you all warm.
Off for a glass of sherry, see you at 10.01pm.
I read today that Christopher Gill, the former Conservative MP for Ludlow and self-styled “whips’ nightmare”, is to contest his old seat for UKIP at the general election. Now 73, he was MP for the constituency between 1987 and 2001, when he retired from the Commons, and he joined UKIP in 2006.
Philip Dunne has been Conservative MP for the seat since the 2005 general election, when he regained Ludlow from the Lib Dems, who held it between 2001 and 2005. When I asked for his reaction to the intervention of his predecessor-but-one, he told me:
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/goldlist/2010/03/extory-mp-to-stand-in-his-old-seat-for-ukip.html
Lib/Dems are only 2,000 behind here, so may be worth a bet?
281 “whats going on at the moment with these polls and the apparent collapse on Conservative support??”
I only pay attention in spurts but the impression i’d got was el Torees spent pretty much all of January and February shooting themselves in the foot?
Hattie Harperson also went to St Pauls
305 alex
who is this Harrovian you are talking about?
Is it our very own Screaming Eagles?
“nervous Tories” Tim
I do not think many of us are nerous, as we know who is going to win. !!!!
308. Er, Callaghan was extremely personally popular in 1979. He was by far Labours greatest asset and the main reason why Labour went down to a very respectable defeat, given the circumstances.
311. Point taken. Still would be interested to hear Sean Fear’s thoughts on whats going on. He’s got one of the best political antenee on here.
307 - Not really. Thatcher may have won three times, but the Conservatives 3 worst election results since the war involved being led by John Major, William Hague and Michael Howard. Who nobody could sensibly describe as “toffs”.
308. Unkind to Callaghan IMO. Agree with you about Foot and Kinnock though.
315…Three words Winter of Discontent
298 oldnat, in a similar vein I’m dubious about simply changing the voting system from FPTP to something else.
Far better to have a root & branch examination of what democracy needs and tackle the problems holistically. Mostly applies to England, I daresay.
I want to apologize for my last post on here which went well over the top,sorry.
I would have apologized sooner,but I was blocked off the site
It is debateable whether Thatcher was particularly politically attractive to the electorate in 1979.
319. Indeed. But it wasn’t Callaghans fault the Unions took leave of their sense’s and brought the country to its knees. Callaghan was generally seen as a respected, competent leader of a party ruined by mad men and millitants.
313 - Oi, I’m not an old Harrovian.
I’m an Old Birkdalian.
167. Thanks Scott. Looks like the Diggers pre match!
298 Not sure why every party would want the elections on the same time, having staggered elections would allow activists to campaign outside their “home” regions. It would be a bit like a bye election…
But I agree with you, my idea for a devolved England would be a very decentralised state with most functions further devolved down to whatever units people want - counties/cities/islands/regions/ancient kingdoms, whatever. These units would not need to have the same constitutional arrangements or even powers.
I also wonder why councils have to be contiguous - if Wandsworth is very good at running local services I don’t see why the citizens of Hart in Hampshire shouldn’t invite it to take over our council. (Our council is apparently f*cked financially and has been making overtures to neighbouring Basingstoke and Rushmoor - neither very appealing - who have both turned Hart down.)
According to the polls, wouldn’t Callaghan have won an election if he had held it in 1978?
249. You’d certainly would be egg on your face if it turned out he REALLY was Gordon Brown!!
326…Is history repeating itself?
321. Well thats the other thing that stopped Labour being severely defeated in 79. Thatcher was never seen as a likeable, effective leader of the opposition. There was also a lot of sexism about having a woman as leader as well. So it was a combination of Callaghans popularity and Thatchers relative unpopularity that saved Labour from what you would think would have been a terrible defeat given the circumstances.
SeanT makes a good point re: political advantages of playing against typecasting . . . and dangers of the opposite.
One example of the former from US history: Franklin D. Roosevelt. IF he’d been a Republican, his privledged background would have been a real detriment. BUT as a Democrat, it was part of his winning polictical persona.
To illustrate, note these excerpts from the Woodie Guthrie song “Dear Mrs. Roosevelt” written just after FDR’s death:
“He went on up to Harvard to read his books of law
He loved his trees and horses, loved everything he saw
This world was lucky to see him born”
And everytime some fatcat called him “a traitor to his class” it was worth another 100k votes or more.
317. Major won the most votes of any Tory leader in 1992 - and the general election.
I’m not saying it’s an iron law, but I do believe it is a useful law. Both parties should have, ideally, counterintuitive leaders to neutralise their perceived weaknesses. Ergo, the Tories’ ideal leader is a working class or lower middle class self made woman, the Labour party’s ideal leader is a poshish honest-seeming well-spoken public schoolboy.
And indeed Blair and Thatcher were each their parties’ most successful leaders of the postwar era.
FWIW I don’t think Cam’s and Ozzie’s poshness would have been a problem if we hadn’t had the Great Recession and the Brown Bust. But we did, and it is. This is cruelly unfair on the Tories, as Labour got us into this mess - but them’s the breaks.
I thought Birkdale was a golf course.
331 - It is, and the name of a school in Sheffield
http://www.birkdaleschool.org.uk/
327 Roger
It can’t have been Gordon Brown. He is too busy preparing for the TV debates.
327. Why would OGH have egg on his face? Brown’s dishonest and a fake anyway. This web site is not the only place he should be banned from!
327- Roger
And Gordon himself would look a bit silly if he was caught posting false poll figures on this Board…
330 - SeanT.
Last Autumn Cameron was posh, so was Osborne and they were 17% ahead.
Since the Conferences they have been incompetent posh.
It’s the incompetent bit that matters.
309 Tim
wrong site m8 you should be on UKPR, then you can speak to your comrad red rag
331 - With their exam results I think they are a golf course.
The A Level pass rate was 99.7% with 51% resulting in A grade.
At GCSE the pass rate A*-C was 98% with 89% gaining A*.
330 - Major won the most votes of ANYONE in a general election ever.
336 tim
POSH and incompetent are mutually exclusive.
And what are you doing with that straw stuck in a Tesco Value Sherry Trifle?
Roger.
First the Sun Letter, then Christine Pratt, now Mike has banned him.
At this rate it’ll be a Labour landslide.
Callaghan really didn’t handle his visit to the Caribbean well at the New Year 1979. At home there was a crisis - the country seemed to be falling apart with rubbish piling up. I remember Jim flying back into Heathrow, replete with his tan from the summit, where the cameras were waiting and he was nonchalantly brushing off the crisis. Someone had briefed him very badly. He never recovered from that terrible gaffe.
Having said that, you mustn’t forget that Thatcher was a woman. A lot, I mean a LOT, of voters were very unsure about voting for a woman PM.
Of course, she went on to be one of the greatest PM’s in this country’s history. And that comes from a Labour supporter.
re 327. Nice one Roger. LOL
Fron Pages (Indy only so far)
http://www.politicshome.com/uk/article/6498/front_pages_fridauy_12_march_2010.html
Re 344 Fron = Front doh!
re 341. Well if it was the real Gordon he did not have the real polling figures.
326. According to the polls, wouldn’t Callaghan have won an election if he had held it in 1978?
Possible, but not 100% certain. He certainly would have had a better chance and the SNP would not have taken such a hit therby costing the Conservatives a few seats (3 to 5 perhaps) in Scotland that they gained in 1979 like South Angus, Moray and Nairn, Aberdeenshirse East.
346 - They will have been the ‘internal polling’ figures showing Labour 6 points up, no?
342. Yes thats true, the Caribbean visit was his one major blunder.
346 - Even more reason why he wanted to repeat them.
346 – OGH, you are safe from the eggy face, it can’t have been the real Gordon Brown.
He only uses crayons to write with.
336. The gruesome incompetence of the Tories certainly hasn’t helped. Nonetheless the overall narrative has changed since last year - to the Tories’ detriment.
Having gotten over the shock of Moneygeddon, the public has - belatedly - become much more focussed on the reality and inevitability of spending cuts and job losses and tax rises.
This economic agenda is obviously a much harder sell for a couple of trustafarian millionaire Tory toffs, as compared to “sharing the proceeds of growth”.
346 - ” Well if it was the real Gordon he did not have the real polling figures.”
Misrepresenting figures? Could well be the Clown then
330. It’s not the Brown Bust that is the problem, it is the absence of same. The underclass get their benefits come hell or high water, and the middle classes have never had it so good because their mortgage payments have fallen so far. And the stock and housing markets are going mad. People may know this won’t last but they won’t really feel it until it happens. It is like trying to imagine what a winter’s day is like during a july heatwave, or what it is like to take a wicket in a test match when Australia are 455 for no wicket at tea on the first day. The fundamental mistake was GO telling it like its going to be at the party conference.
And when the penny drops Brown will have been reelected.
346 Mike Smithson
Shades of 2007 perhaps?
Is the problem that Cameron and Osborne are good personal friends…
I don’t think the Tories need to worry too much. There is massive discontent with Labour ; all the hung parliament narrative is doing is solidifying the determination of the Tories to get out and vote out Labour. It won’t be close. Labour don’t stand a chance. I overheard a security guard and a small works contractor at the building i work in moaning about the state of the country today, and heaping very salty abuse on the Labour Party and Mr G Brown, despairing of more years Hard Labour. Brown and Labour , are loathed by millions , for not one, but scores of reasons. Its over for them.
Just watched the Hurt Locker - hmm, great start and then more of the same and again and again.
I clicked off at about 45 mins and then again about every 20mins until the end.
346 - They could have avoided a lot of this by dumping their IHT pledge at the conference.
A quick check on the currency exchanges shows Sterling is trading at $1.5062.
Now let’s see the polls.
Pesonally I don’t think its anything to do with Cams “poshness” - its the economy and the fact that the Tory message is “have the pain earlier”. I happen to think its the right policy but its a heck of something to sell and I’m not sure if its ever been done before succesfully. Clearly the electorate are not pesuaded (or at least not enough of them are as yet) so let no one be suprised if voters decide to “put off the evil day”. Cameron might have got away with it if Ken Clark had been Shadow Chancellor as someone with hsi experience and authority is believable. Cam may well pay the price for sticking with Osbourne who not only exudes a toff image but is simply not seen as a hugely credible figure.
3% YG lead
Mike are already to G.O. ? :d
Just before the polls arrive
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1257157/The-100m-Welsh-TV-channel-shows-ZERO-viewers.html
359
nonsense tim,the IHT pledge is very popular.
It’s 10 PM, boys and girls. Survey says…
(timpani roll, please)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V1B5njIbtOE
320 AnneJGP
The introduction of STV has done a bit to clean up the alleged corruption in those LAs which have had one party rule since time immemorial.
Something else would be required if we had a city where such one party rule had resulted in a network of alleged corruption involving allegedly councillors, businessmen and criminals. In such a city, the leader might well have found him/herself to be regularly mixing with drugs and crime. Fortunately Chicago is on the other side of the Atlantic!
New thread up.
Something for the final minutes ever night before 10pm…
http://www.youtube.com/watch#!v=u8zla30TCzw&feature=related
37 34 17
325 John Lilburne, as a localist I like your sketch. The difficulty is going to be that the idea of “postcode lottery” is very much disliked.
I agree there’s nothing to stop people pressing the local authority to do “the same as them there”, but still it’s a long reach from what we have now.
Mike’s wife’s hot.