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Now a pollster from India enters the fray

March 17th, 2010

RNB – New Delhi Mar 10 2005
CONSERVATIVES 39% 33.2%
LABOUR 31% 36.2%
LIB DEMS 20% 22.7%
LAB to CON swing from 2005 5.5%

What do think of RNB’s numbers and unique analysis?

Thanks to Gabble on a thread last night for spotting this – a new opinion poll from a leading research company from India which carried out a survey of Westminster voting intentions from a sample of 1,800 voters from March 4 to March 10th.

The findings, with comparisons on the 2005 general election result, are broadly in line with what we’ve seen from other firms but what marks RNB out is how it has sought to project their findings into seat totals. For in its press release it suggests that the 8 point margin would be enough to give Cameron a majority.

“…There are certain evidence & indications in our poll analysis that the conservatives may be doing better in their key target seats, which would mean an overall Majority at the National support. If the above figures are translated into the seats according to our experts, the Conservative party would have an overall Majority of 30+ seats…

The uniform “Swing” concept is above all a tool for estimating the likely relationship between seats & votes but in this General Election of UK, we have noticed some regional & local deviations from uniformity which causes the disproportionate in large change in seats.”

What we don’t have is any detail on how the survey was carried out. Even the basic information of whether it over the phone, face-to-face or on-line is not there. I’ve not been able to find dataset in the form that we would expect from a UK firm.

What I think we underestimate is the international interest in the election and the desire of pollsters, world-wide, to demonstrate their expertise.

By my reckoning RNB is now the eleventh firm to have carried out a poll. What will be the total by May 6th?

Mike Smithson