Should we be paying more attention to the dons?
March 18th, 2010
An invitation to participants to do a PB guest slot
Tomorrow an academic conference starts in Manchester on forecasting the general election. A series of papers are going to be presented and all of them, as far as I can gather, suggest that there will be a hung parliament.
I’ve already invited Matt Lebo of Stony Brook University in New York to do a guest slot on his model that seeks to predict outcomes from from prime ministerial approval ratings. To give you a flavour this was from an email he sent to me last night:-
“We now have some more recent numbers - MORI’s Feb. poll and YG’s recent polls. So we have redone the forecasts and now have a near certainty of a hung parliament with Labour ahead in seats based on a 3.4% conservative vote lead.”
This was his forecasting model for the 2005 election. Part of my reply was over the narrow choice of pollsters for his study - MORI and YouGov
I noted “..Only ICM and Populus are operating in the same broad way as they did in 2005. The ICM approach has been consistent since the mid 1990s and for you to be putting forward something that deviates so much from ICM’s current polling is brave. All the party HQs will tell you that they regard the firm as “the gold standard”.
Hopefully we can have a good session with Matt in the next few days.
On the previous thread Andy Cooke raises concerns about the approach in a separate paper to the polling over-statement of Labour He wrote:-
“..Having come to the conclusion that the industry overstates Labour and understates the Tories, they adjust to the “ICM house effect” - and boost Labour, reduce the Tories, and boost the Lib Dems. There’s no immediately obvious combination of arithmetical operations that end up with the final figures in the table. If they can’t anchor the house corrections to the 2005 results (correct), then they can’t anchor the estimated house effects of those pollsters to ICM’s….
So the correction for pro-Labour/anti-Tory bias is to increase the Labour score and decrease the Tory score? Are we sure that they haven’t got the sign inverted in this rather important stage?”
UPDATE: It has been pointed out to me that the cover sheet for the paper referred to by Andy contains the following: ““DRAFT – PLEASE DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE. THE FIGURES CONTAINED HERE ARE PRELIMINARY ILLUSTRATIONS OF THE TECHNIQUES DISCUSSED AND SHOULD NOT BE TREATED AS OUR COLLECTIVE FORECASTS OR PREDICTIONS”.
My invitation to participants: If you can produce a summary of you argmuents in under 1,000 words I would be delighted to publish it here so we can open it up to discussion. Please email me.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
First!!!
Hilarious trade unionist and Labour peer Baroness Dean wittering all over the front of the Telegraph. She was probably ’shocked’ because she seems a bit slow to me…
5th ?
RodC should write one on his swingback theory!
If it turns out the polls are in fact overestimating the Tories, the last 743 threads are going to look faintly ridiculous by mid-afternoon on May 7th.
You Gov adjust there raw data too much nowadays. I mean the majoral election had a very slight adjustment many recent polls have had adjustment figures in the hundreds i mean is it really scientific if they had only 1 person who was in their Labour Loyal and 1 in their labour disloyal and just said we need to make it representative so lets weight it and say 36% of the population will vote Labour. Because if you have 300 and say it should be weighted to 460 surely that is doing pretty much the same thing assuming everyone will vote the same as an unscientific number of people.
Matt Lebo - what a pity his seat of learning isn’t called Stoney Broke instead of Stony Brook!
5. How long has it been since the majority of polls did that though????
A lot of money to be made if they are right! Definitely worth a lot of discussion.
5.Your presence on each will surely guarantee it
8. In 2005 the polls were almost spot-on. That means only a slightly greater likelihood of a Labour overestimation than a Tory overestimation.
The Tory paranoia about the polls is based on ancient history.
10. “Your presence on each will surely guarantee it
“
Someone’s taken my advice, I see…
Well if these so called experts are on a par with the Americans which declared Gordon Brown World Statesman of the Year, they should at least give us a laugh.
However I can see that Rod Crosby is going to be on a mega high over the next few days so I would not wish to deny him his pleasure given he and all his academic friends will be shown to have talked utter tosh 6 weeks from today.
I have just read Anthony Wells reply to me over on UKPR. If YouGov have been using the Labour Loyal/Disloyal for 5 years, how come we only first heard about it 4 weeks ago. In addition it is clear from his answer that they have made changes because he accused me of attacking the wrong thing. From now on I shall remain silent about YouGov polls but my views are well known.
I saw James Kelly having a go at my comment this morning about PBers. In my humble view increasing referrals to the threads, comments and opinions expressed on PB by mainstream media figures and journalists does indicate that PBers are held in high regard.
re 11. They were not almost spot on. All the pollsters bar NOP over-estimated Labour. NOP got it right. In five election s going back to 1987 only one pre-election poll has underestimated Labour.
If there was no systemic bias then you would see estimates on borth sides of the line.
We had this argument here ahead of the 2005 election and I was proved right.
re 11. They were not almost spot on. All the pollsters bar NOP over-estimated Labour. NOP got it right. In five election s going back to 1987 only one pre-election poll has underestimated Labour.
If there was no systemic bias then you would see estimates on both sides of the line.
We had this argument here ahead of the 2005 election and I was proved right.
Good week for George Osborne
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/5850843/its-turning-into-an-extremely-good-week-for-osborne.thtml
14. “They were not almost spot on. All the pollsters bar NOP over-estimated Labour.”
By a rough calculation they overestimated the Labour lead by approximately 1.5%. That to my mind is virtually spot-on. It’s certainly light-years better than the gross overestimations in 1992 and 1997, which ought to be considered totally irrelevant to present circumstances.
Apologies aforehand, off topic.
Many of you guys follow the currency markets, I rarely do. Anyone think that Sterling will rise against the Euro when:
1 GE is called
2 Tories win with clear majority
3 Tories win but with a hung parliament
4 Something else
Not a politcal question at all, really, I need some Euros for holiday in July. I know you would all be millionaires if you could accurately forecast, I just need a ‘feeling in your water’ answer please.
End of begging
YouGov is supported in their most recent polling by ComRes and MORI - however both these polls are now very old and ComRes had a poll shortly before the 5 lead at 8, supporting the current ICM/Harris position. Should these dirft back out by 2-3 points to a 7-8 lead then all pollsters aside from YouGov will be showing a minor contraction of the Tory lead since Christmas of a couple of points. Should they maintain the sub-7 position a larger contraction of 3-4 points would be evident aside from (bigger pollsters) ICM. However, YouGov support is predicated entirely at this time on one Comres and one MORI poll.
Xmas - Tory lead was around 10-11 with the pollsters and 16 with AR
It is now 8-9 with the majority of pollsters and 5ish with YouGov (13 with AR)
YouGov have changed their methodology, the others haven’t - without continuing support from ComRes and MORI then you can only draw one conclusion - YouGov are overdoing it. If the ComRes and MORI support continues then you can start to talk about YouGov leading the way.
Having said that, YouGov have produced an awful lot of polls now without an outlier on the upside and very little outlying on the downside - accurate or polling in a strait jacket?
For Labour to be largest party (as we stand), the YouGov adjustments have to be accurate.
14 quite. 2005 redux in terms of accuracy would mean the position is currently between 7-12 points ahead for the blue team.
Mike Smithson must be a masochist. Taking on RodCrosby etc. Instead of ignoring them will surely only mean futility and heartache runnning to severalhundred posts!
What possible justification is there for assuming a Lab lead of Only 3.4%???
I’m not a You Gov basher. I don’t know. However I do think we are up againsttwo deeply rooted cultural attitudes here.
Firstly in the media that a close campaign is more news worthy than an inevitable march towards a Tory landslide.
Secondly a belief amongst the liberal left institutions that the Great Recession should be a moment for a liberal left response. However as a Labour government has presided over it they are going to be “unfairly” punished and the Tories will “unfairly” inherit.
16. “That looks a risky statement, suggesting that rates will go up regardless of who wins, but it’s good direct politics from Clarke.”
What an odd comment. All Clarke has done is point out the rates will not remain at a 350 year low forever. Anyone surprised by that should not be allowed to borrow money.
16. It has been a good week for him, he’s made some good points and the conservative campaign seems to have got back on track
21. “What possible justification is there for assuming a Lab lead of Only 3.4%???”
That it just happens to be what a pollster with a formidable track record is reporting?
21 - It would be really stupid to ignore these people if you are staking a lot of money on predicting the outcome of the GE better than others can. Feel free to disagree with them but ignoring them is madness.
23. Fair point. Clarke has the ability to make interetsing points about the economy without sounding partisan enough to put people off. Him vs Mandelson should be entertaining.
11 close in 2005 but still all apart from one overestimated labour and underestimated lib dems and conservatives. Only
Two companies have stayed the same in terms of methodology since then. If they had it so close then what justification to change. I think you will find you gov have changed assuming labour will win back anti iraq supporters and more tactical voting. This means they are actually adjusting so the conservatives will be even more understated.
18
You need it for you holiday, I need to replenish my supplies of good french wine, but the cost is prohibitive at the moment. Last time I “filled” up it was about 1.35 after commision, now its about 1.10?
21 jonc. It’s based on a tory lead of 3.4% not Labour.
25, a pollster with methodology issues that is releasing a daily outlier significantly lower than the majoruty of the other 10 pollsters.
25
Past performance is no guide to future success. You are only as good as your last election result.
31. But not lower than the most recent ComRes and Ipsos-Mori polls. As things stand, Angus Reid are the outliers.
16 - There is indeed much more support for Osboune’s views on the economy than he is generally given credit for.However I would take issue with the Spectator’s headline on this as todays budget borowing figures could play politically very well for Labour. I know its madness to even think that the problem on the deficit is not massive but voters may reason that its not as bad as the Tories have been saying and if Darling gives away some sweeteners in the budget Labour could get a real boost. Whilst I think that the votes would just be fooling themselves if they take that line, it is at least as likely that they will vote for the soft option than the tough one. All this nonsense and noise about Ashcroft is indeed very small beer compared to budget day.
I actually have a simple question that may not have a simple answer. Polling methodology has developed into effectively pushing down the Labour position and pushing up the Tory position. This has largely occurred over a period when Labour has been in the ascendancy (ie. post 1992). My question is do these assumptions still work when Labour is on the slide (this is all relative to the previous election of course)?
32. “Past performance is no guide to future success. You are only as good as your last election result.”
I recall quite a few of us saying exactly that in 2008 in the forlorn hope that YouGov might just be wrong about Boris. They weren’t.
Predictions of “near certainty” are brave, in the Yes Minister sense, even when as welcome as this one. I also think we’re heading for NOM and that Labour has a decent chance of being largest party, but I’m not remotely certain.
33, I forget which firm it was, but another had an 11 point Tory lead, 2 off of Angus Reid’s. The ComRes and Mori polls are older than this.
34. The problem with the government giving away sweetners is that they’ve been talking about the need for cuts for months (fater the tories paved the way) so shelling out cash will look like electioneering, and the tories will be able to play it as such pretty easily.
39 - you may be right but the public quite like having some “sweeteners” and may well be in the mood to quell the stirrings of conscience and vote to accept them!!
37 Nick P. Would you go for a recount in Broxtowe if offered now ??
38. “The ComRes and Mori polls are older than this.”
That’s true, but the most recent ComRes and Ipsos-Mori polls were roughly in line with the YouGov polls published at the time.
34. “as todays budget borowing figures could play politically very well for Labour.”
Hmmm. The government spent, and therefore borrowed, less. And unemployment fell (in the headline figure anyway).
Is that not the Tory line? Less spending is good for you?
37 you need a much higher % than all the pollsters currently show for that.
Even YouGov currently has you at 32% from whence you will not be the largest party imho.
I doubt Labour will beat 31 and am reaosnably confident sub 30 will be achieved.
40. They’ve been given sweeteners for years, hasn’t stopped the tide turning now. People have become immune to them.
42 see 19 - if ComRes and MORI shift upwards in their next outing (presumably this weekend and next) then YouGov are all alone and the smart money goes to a high single figure lead. ComRes and MORI staying sub 7 makes YG all the more likely to be on to something.
43 - Scott - borowing fell because the Govt spent less on unemployment benefits and there was a bit of an upsurge in tax receipts.
27. “23. Fair point. Clarke has the ability to make interetsing points about the economy without sounding partisan enough to put people off. Him vs Mandelson should be entertaining.”
True, but I find it odd that stating the bleeding obvious should be considered risky.
Boiled down, it seems that the fewer people they find who claim to be planning to vote Labour, the stronger Labour’s polling results get. Now, I’m no pollster, but shome mishtake shurely?
34 - Yes the problem is that the deficit is like spotting an approaching apocalyptic asteroid and then as it approaches a scientist announcing the good news that they overestimated its size, it is now only 10km across rather than 15km across.
And seriously, why no upside outliers from YouGov in 4 weeks of polls? Is the weighting so severe that the outlier is that much rarer?
45 - I hope you are right and I am wrong, but…….
These so called experts from the USA are completely out of line with Jacks Arse - thats the acid test.
I’ve just gone through each seat, to make a guess as to the the outcome of the election. Real mountain to climb for the tories, if there were no suprises (there will be), I’ve got the tories at 330 Labour 236 Lib Dems 50 others 34. Tory Maj 10.
So places like Morecambe, Feltham, Leeds North East which I’ve got Labour clinging on to, need to be taken to ensure my prediction of a 42 seat majority comes true.
7 weeks to go….
In my experience, and with a few honorable exceptions (such as David Butler) academic “political science” is the last refuge for dipshhittts.
Note the pannel of US pol sci profs who unanimously proclaimed in 2000 that Al Gore was a sho-in! Sure, he got the most (populur) votes, but even so . . .
53 TGoHF. Not too keen on having an acid test near ones’s ARSE !!
There will be (or should be) no sweeteners.
Having accepted that a CSR is required and cuts will need to happen, any sweeteners will be exposed as a failure to protect against future cuts.
‘Could have saved some of the future cuts in Education/NHS/etc but instead is trying to buy the election’
Sweeteners will lead to a poor market reception which the Tories will hammer mercilessly ‘discredited government destroying the economy for a few more votes’, the ‘Marie Antoinette’ budget with the slice of cake being distributed to the starving in lieu of a year’s ration of bread.
And seriously, why no upside outliers from YouGov in 4 weeks of polls? Is the weighting so severe that the outlier is that much rarer?
by Dyed in some wool somewhere March 18th, 2010 at 5:50 pm
There lies the problem. YouGov boast that the only difference the new methodology makes compared to the old is in stability.
I would suggest a daily poll should be unstable as it will reflect much more instant reaction than considered opinion, especially as they take the responses first come first served. Who is most energised today?
But most of all YouGov have decided that the lack of Labour identifiers is a panel issue and needs correcting with a bit of maths. What if it rather reflects the mood of the country and they are correcting out changes in mood?
Impossible, they will say, as we know how people identified themselves in the past. And they will never change? Isn’t that the only way another party can win an election? Labour voters changing?
you gov adjust by more than a hundred to allow for weighting how can this be scientifically valid?? In the mayoral election they hardly adjusted their figures for weightings. Daily poll sampling methods are not good i would bet my house on it.
58 - “a daily poll should be unstable as it will reflect much more instant reaction”
How do you know that the public mood fluctuates greatly in response to every news story? I think the tendency here to always try to explain poll movements in relation to events in the sampling period is overdone.
A plaque on all your houses.
With the British public manufacturing a parliament with no party enjoying majority rule seems a just result to many.
Especially if bankers tell the public they have to vote conservative to save the economy.
Assuming a Tory lead of 3.4?
Using YouGov and then weighting FURTHER to Labour?
Tripe.
But they are correct in that such an unlikely result would be a hung Parliament. Congratulations on providing such telling insight.
“One or two” does not equal four, but it is not a lie. Brown meant it colloquially, in the approximate sense. You can’t really expect more precision from someone who sells off gold cheaply and thinks that a deficit of £178,000,000,000 makes the economy strong.
Mike your posts and Yellow Submarine’s are very welcome. This forecasting conference of academics has a ring of the midset of those 365 economists who opposed Thatcher/Howe and were very wrong.
61. A plaque on all your houses.
Do you work for the heritage industry?
with respect to groves of academe, political opinion does owe a debt. But NOT to polisickers, rather to mathematicians.
BTW, why do Brits say “maths” while Americans say “math”? By same token, why UK “sport” and US “sports”?
dez I think the bankers are voting Labour as they expect lots of nice taxpayer cash to pay bonuses whenever they make more mistakes.
They don’t like the Tories as they want to break up these megabanks and make them earn an honest living after paying back what they owe us all.
After all who was it that masterminded the merger of Lloyds and BoS which destroyed a viable bank, cost the taxpayer billions and is going to be a well fed basket case for many years? Step forward, saviour of the world, economic hero, financial giant amongst pygmies, James Gordon Brown.
The point that is being missed here is that Lebo’s forecasts rely heavily on PM approval ratings.
The reason he will have increased the Labour seats level he predicts is that Browns approval ratings were at 36% in the last MORI, higher than Blairs at the same stage before an election.
I’d take slight issue with this on three grounds.
1.Cameron is more popular than Howard was.
2.He doesn’t take account of negative ratings - Howards negatives, although lower than Blairs, were higher than Camerons are now.
3.The latest ICM suggests that the leaders approval gap has stopped shrinking and may have reversed.
It cost more than a quarter of a million for Blair’s security at Chilcot
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1258918/Tony-Blairs-security-Chilcot-inquiry-cost-police-270-000.html
A first rate economist can accurately tell you what is going to happen to the economy and why.
A second rate economist can accurately explain what has already happened to the economy.
A third rate economist will understand what has happened once someone has explained it.
So with politics. Almost all political academics will fall in the first two categories but I wouldn’t like to say how that splits beween the two. (Those who don’t fall in the first two tend to be devotees of particular thories irrespective of the theories’ relations with the facts). For what it’s worth, my own pet theory with academics is that they’re too keen on predicting the past.
But it’s always worth listening to experts and revisiting one’s own expectations in the light of what they have to say. Just because we might want something to happen, just because it really ought to happen, it doesn’t mean it will.
As I’ve said many times before, the Conservatives need to win a huge number of seats to gain an overall majority - a number achieved only once since 1945 and not by the Tories since 1931. The single worst bet I’ve made in the last five years was laying off a bet on a hung parliament at about the same price as I backed it (about 5/2). As a result, I’m now expecting a return on that market counted in the dozens of pounds, not the hundreds.
see 68 tim has been kidnapped. Call the cops.
66. Another one is when Americans talk about the “finals” at Wimbledon. But none is as confusing as “I could care less”.
From the Boulton blog:
His TV debate with Mandy was vintage Ken. His lordship turned up with a pile of papers as thick as a phone directory on his lap and kept referring to his notes throughout the debate.
Ken had not so much as a scribbled note on the back of a packet of hsi favourite Montecristo cigars. All off the cuff. “Piffle!” was his retort to one of Lord Mandelson’s more far-fetched claims.
But the best moment came when Mandy accused Ken of “living and trading on his past” after he boasted about his record as Chancellor of the Exchequer.
“Unlike you, Peter, I have a past I can trade on,” he shot back instantly. Brilliant!
71, Mr. Kelly, I concur and heartily loathe the term ‘I could care less’. It sounds like an unimpressive attempt at sarcasm.
“a near certainty of a hung parliament with Labour ahead in seats”
I wish they will put their money where their percentage are.
I REALLY do.
I for one would wire thousands of ponds to Peter the Punter if those guys — or at least one of ‘em — would accept bets on their silly forecast.
But I suspect they’re only talking-heads, pussssies, aiming to get some attention with provocative, counter-intuitive predictions. Hence I’m not holding my breath over any of them accepting any of my bets.
66. I think it’s a grammar thing about whether it’s considered a singular thing or a group of things.
54. I think we’re in danger of forgetting quite how high the electoral mountain is for the Tories. Winning the election by even the smallest of margins will be an incredible achievement.
The problem with polls is they are only ever a snapshot of the past. They don’t forecast the future whatever punters like to think. We might never know if AR is right now, or if YouGov is right, because everything might well change in the next few weeks.
Don’t place too much faith in polls - and never ever trust the dons.
@68:
Sounds to me like somebody wants to challenge these rather deluded academics to put their money where their mouths are.
Only, being academics, they don’t got none.
Anthony has posted in his blog comments that YouGov are taking a couple of days off. If true, it would be welcome. It seems like the entire political debate is now revolving around YouGov. This not being disrespectful to the company but I think we all need a break.
radio4 news. Beeb dutifully lead on ashcroft. A story that did not make the top 10 on the beeb website. 6 o’clock news giving mandy air to vent his spleen. Maybe the beeb have more of the 97 vintage champagne on ice while living in hope.
Based on a 3.4% lead only? Pah and Piffle and out of date.
ASHCROFT SAVES 100 MILLION IN TEN YEARS, HAGUE TELL THEN PM BLAIR HE WILL PAY 10S OF MILLION A YEAR…SHAMEFULL…TAKE A LONG HARD LOOK AT THE TORY PARTY.
Darling is caught between a rock and a hard place.
Be seen to have a “give-away” in these circumstances and the markets might well punish us all.
I cannot find today’s ratio of longs to shorts but the following should indicate the direction that cable (USD-GBP) is possibly heading.
[ You may need to select "view chart" for GBP/USD to see the chart]
http://www.dailyfx.com/technical_analysis/elliott_wave/
@79:
If that’s true I suggest it means only one thing: Yougov need to fiddle their weightings to get a credible result.
My prediction: when they come back, the Tory lead will ‘mysteriously’ start to grow.
Peter Kellner has blogged on the weighting changes:
http://today.yougov.co.uk/commentaries/peter-kellner/weighting-system-changes
Ref the deficit, Darling has got this one right politically and Brown has got it wrong.
Darling has consistently predicted doomy doom and has mostly delivered it, so at least the public can respect him for telling it as it is.
Brown has stated that all’s well, there was never a problem and it’s all the Tories fault, which is clearly bollocks and so the public don’t believe him on that or, consequently, anything else.
Underpromise and overdeliver, even if that means really, really underpromising.
THANK YOU BBC FOR TELLING HAGUES LIES ABOUT ASHCROFT PAYING 10S OF MILLIONS.
82
I see you have yet to learn grammar or net etiquette.
@82:
It appears that Labour’s astroturfing unit has run out of humans and switched to chimps.
80.In other news: Government attempts to control CO2 emissions by giving airline workers the weekend off - BBC?
82 - Can you please stop shouting?
79 - I think there was some very heavy sarcasm in Anthony’s comment.
82..Hello Jojo…were you kept in detention tonight…
89 - There is actually Ashcroft related grafitti near where I live. They are covering all the options: both high tech and low.
75 - PM “I for one would wire thousands of ponds to Peter the Punter …”
One letter can make so much difference! (Or did you misinterpret ‘Punter’?
)
85
Kellner says: on the principle that the less weighting that needs to be done, the better, we have made slight changes to our sampling frame to reduce the need for subsequent weighting.”
And the last weighting for a YouGov poll was?
Sounds like another example of the “364 economists” gaffe from 1981, if they’re all predicting hung parliaments in spite of Andy Cooke’s analysis.
@96:
No, it’s true. PtP has the largest collection of ponds in the United Kingdom.
14. “If there was no systemic bias then you would see estimates on both sides of the line.”
Not necessarily, Mike. As I pointed out some time ago the under/over performance relative to the polls may not be constant. The last paper I posted on the previous thread has found evidence of this. It depends how far away the polls are from the parties “equilibrium” positions. Yes Labour were overstated in 1997 and 2001 - to a lesser degree in 2005, but they were understated in 1983, which supports this analysis.
At the moment Labour are polling around the equilibrium position - 32% - so we we should expected their actual votes not to deviate too much from the polls…
This I believe is the comment from Anthony referred to
Marco – actually, YouGov aren’t bothering to poll for the next couple of days. We were going to, we thought it would be interesting to see what the effect of all the Unite stuff was. Luckily you’ve told us that it will definitely increase the Conservative lead and any polls that don’t show that must be wrong. Polling seems somewhat redundant now we have you to gauge puplic support for us.
Posted on Guidoblog the latest tweet from Bercow
@SallyBercow Ironing dress to wear to @sarahbrown10 house.Which will be her house for long time to come, obvs.
Re 84 You do need to select GBP/USD to see the correct chart
It’s all guesswork until the debates anyway. I’d conservatively estimate a 5% pro-con swing (based on what we see in the States) depending on the performance on the night and the post-game round-up.
The Sun will deride Brown, the Mirror will deride Cameron whatever they do but the quality tabloids will pick Brown’s statements apart with a toothcomb.
If Brown tells another porky (or even falls apart on the night) then it could easily be a 97-style blue landslide.
What would be very interesting would be to ask the academics two separate questions:
1) What do they think the vote share figures will be at the GE?
2) How do they think those figures will translate to seats?
That way, we can distinguish the two separate main uncertainties.
OT: Biased BBC
There is an interesting report on the BBC website about the revision of the numbers of people killed during the Dresden bombings.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/8574157.stm
As always there are links in the sidebar to other reports on the same news item by other media outlets.
So whilst the 2nd through 5th links are:
Melbourne Age Dresden bombs toll revised - 2 hrs ago
Sydney Morning Herald Death toll in Dresden raids lower than thought - 4 hrs ago
Times Online Report says Dresden firebomb toll was exaggerated - 9 hrs ago
NEWS.com.au Dresden bombing ‘killed 25,000′ - 22 hrs ago
the top link is:
Guardian.co.uk Tories must answer for extremist links | Denis MacShane - 2 hrs ago
Now what the flying f##k have MacShane’s bigoted and ill informed ramblings got to do with the Dresden bombings and why is the BBC pushing this as the top associated report on this issue? Maybe they are now claiming that the Tories were responsible for the Dresden bombings?
Utter f##kwits.
102
One has to doubt the impartiality of a Speaker with a wife like that…
65 Pollyb lol
No don`t work in the heritage industry.
Used to work in the construction industry.
106 - “One has to doubt the impartiality of a Speaker with a wife like that…”
What an odd thing to say.
Congratualtions to Kersten England…
http://www.yorkpress.co.uk/news/4495759.Kersten_England_lands_chief_executive_job_at_City_of_York_Council/
…for deciding to conduct election night counts in York Central and York Outer:
http://www.citylocal.co.uk/York/news-in-York/General-Election—Thursday-night-count-confirmed-54261/
100 RodC - Bit ambitious extrapolating from so few data points, especially when those on one side of the ‘equilibrium’ were over a quarter of a century ago.
82/87 - caps lock off pls.
106.Or at least question his judgement in allowing her to continue tweeting. Surely she must be aware that she is becoming a laughing stock, and undermining her politically ‘neutral’ husband.
107..Dez .. which now seems to be in dire straits…wonder why..
112 - “Or at least question his judgement in allowing her to continue tweeting”
Have you recently escaped from the 19th century or have I completely missed the irony?
86. Scotty was considered a miracle worker in Star Trek because he claimed a repair would take four times longer than he actually thought it would!
The BBC have kept the Ashcroft story going for two weeks - Gordon Brown’s lies to Chilcot only got mentioned for one day!
100. It’s not just those data points. They are just examples. The series they have analysed runs from 1950 to 2005…
107. Dez: That was my favourite typo since someone inadvertently posted about the ‘cat scrappage scheme’
106. No one doesn’t.
Just because his wife has a view on something or other, it doesn’t mean he has to share it. Bercow’s had any number of views in the past which might be far more relevant to his partiality or otherwise but his performance in the chair is the only way to judge that.
On a related but different topic, I rarely judge the suitability of people by their family but I do think it’s inappropriate for a Speaker to have a wife who is also an MP. That really would be a question of impartiality too far.
ann,ascroft said he would pay 10s of millions a year, thats news….
67 Witan believe the Conservatives if in government in 2008 would not let any of the major banks collapse.
They would have done the same well I hope they would have.
Its easier in opposition.
114.If your partner was publicly embarrassing you, wouldn’t you have a word? It’s not as though he’s in an unimportant role…
104. They’ve done that. It’s going to be very close in seats.
Feb 1974 all over again…
116. Ann - I bet BBC/Labour will keep Ashcroft going until polling day.
120..Jojo..how much does he pay..
Would be very interesting to see if the ‘dons’ have done a seat-by-seat analysis of the likely effect of so many Labour MP’s standing down. With 100+ no longer in the game, how does that change the ‘incumbency effect’?
Can we stop the criticism of Sally Bercow.
She is ensuring i wins thousands in Buckingham in May and I like her for that.
95 — lol!
I can be such a thicko; it’s not the fist time I confuse “pound” with “pond” here.
For my defense, it’s 1h30 in the morning, and I’m trying to follow the strange movie “Cold souls”, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QwC5-nRXq2M
122 - The question of my giving them permission would never come into it.
So, Peter Kellner acknowledges that they got their Scottish weightings wrong. Congratulations. That took some guts.
ann,polly please smell the coffee….and take a long hard look at the tory party.
131..Jojo..we are ..How much did ASHCROFT pay..
dez you mean that Cameron would have rushed off to his mate Victor Blank with this whizzo idea of merging Lloyds and BoS and throwing lots of taxpayer money at it?
Don’t think so. Blank wasn’t the inhouse banker to the Tories. Look at the comments at the time. It was a classic Clunking Fist solution to save a Scottish bank and be a hero.
Epic Fail.
120.Ashcroft never said that. Watch todays Daily Politics show, John Pienar BBC reporter summed it up by saying he can’t see what the story is. No impropriety, not unique, it’s not illegal for Ashcroft to donate because he’s a non-dom, otherwise Lord Paul wouldn’t have been able to fund Labour. Ashcroft gave undertakings he’d be resident, that was relevant, since what’s the point of giving a peerage if the man was always out the country, he met his obligation there too.
Would you support UNITE workers who crossed the picket line jojo?
not what he said he would to be a lord….10s of million outstanding in taxes to be paid….
117 Rod - Even more ambitious reaching any conclusions about a couple of percentage point systematic bias in modern opinion polls from elections involving Attlee or Douglas-Home, and polls conducted half a century ago with completely different methodologies. This completely fails any rational test of plausibility - you might as well try to model the 2010 election by analysing each party’s policy on rationing or the ending of national service.
How on earth the bbc have decide the ashcroft nonsense is top stor again is beyond me.
As far as I can see he has done nothing wrong or if he has so have all of labours many non-dom piers.
Looks like one rule for Labour and another for everyone else, of course reinforced by transparent deceit frpom some Labour pier and the labour MPs on the public accounts committee.
So the lesson for today as for most days, Labour are lying and their friends in the BBC are not bothering to tackle the lies.
134 - I dont understand why Hague didnt do this interview when it all came out first. Surely that is what has given this story legs? (I agree that it is completely overdone as an issue, can we not all move on now?)
130 - Thought you’d like that Stuart!
92 - I did wonder. Maybe I just hope they mean it…
123. Rod, what is the MoE on your prediction e.g. what sort of range would you assign a 95% confidence (or indeed, any other level you choose to mention) to a Con or Lab vote share or number of seats?
131-I’ve taken a long, hard look at the Tory party and have seen that their policies are superior in every way to the current inept government led by a useless, dithering Prime Minister.
I assume this was the purpose of your request?
129.Me neither, so what’s your point? Mine was I think Bercow’s judgement is flawed if he didn’t see the damage she’s doing to him, so I can’t see that it would be unreasonable for him to have a word?
137
If the Conservatives do win the next GE, I can see a very cold dish being served.
135..Jojo..Do you know how much he has paid…dont be a moron, try to bring some figures to your debate otherwise P*ss off..
136. You are entitled to your opinion, even if it is just that - an “opinion”, instead of an analysis…
105/116 - hardly surprising is it. Expect more of the same in the next 7 weeks. Jojo, well done for finding the caps lock button.
Jojo was a man who knew he was a loner
But he knew it wouldn’t last.
Jojo left his home in Tucson, Arizona
For some California grass.
Get back, get back.
Get back to where you once belonged
Get back, get back.
Get back to where you once belonged.
Get back Jojo. Go home
Get back, get back.
Back to where you once belonged
Get back, get back.
Back to where you once belonged.
Get back Jo.
101 In which constituency is Sally Bercow standing for election? I’m not sure I’d want such an outspoken ‘wildcard’ as my MP. She strikes me as being a major liability for the Labour Party.
chris…leaked letters say that hague promised ashcroft would pay 10s of millions a year,that is FACT….watch the bbc news,pienar knows nothing if he said it is a no story.
Fulham 2 Juventus 1, Juventus down to 10 men… Agg 3-f..so far…..
149 jojo’s been on the Special Brew.
oops 3-4 on agg nearly HT
UPDATE: It has been pointed out to me that the cover sheet for the paper referred to by Andy contains the following: ““DRAFT – PLEASE DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE. THE FIGURES CONTAINED HERE ARE PRELIMINARY ILLUSTRATIONS OF THE TECHNIQUES DISCUSSED AND SHOULD NOT BE TREATED AS OUR COLLECTIVE FORECASTS OR PREDICTIONS”.
148 - “In which constituency is Sally Bercow standing for election? I’m not sure I’d want such an outspoken ‘wildcard’ as my MP.”
Are there any Labour candidates you would want as your MP?! And she is not standing for Parliament.
jojo the letters were not leaked they were published by Ashcroft.
Whoops, that ruins the story doesn’t it?
Darling’s claim of coming in under borrowing target is spurious.
His revenues will be around £50 billion down on his budget target from last year - £450 billion not $498 billion. Only if his spending had fallen by £60 billion from his target of around £680 billion could he now claim to be under his targeted borrowing figure.
And don’t you just love him. In December government spending outturn was reported as being exactly that, except the reduced figures were achieved without saying which spending it was that had been cut.
There were simply unexplained ‘accounting adjustments’.
Spending down by 10% is a likely tale. In January alone spending was ahead of forecast by a sizeable figure.
This is no different to Labour’s polling figures. They decide what figure they want and work backwards. Rigging polling is the normal fare of politics. Rigging the national accounts by £60 billion is not.
It seems highly likely that people with a mentality that permits them to lie about every single thing they say, even money, and who have been rigging byelections like Glenrothes, will inevitably be involved in rigging seats in the general election.
Banana Republic indeed is what we are.
So here’s a quandary’; a hung Parliament without Bercow or Tory Majority of 2 with him?
149 Cobblers. Hague did not PROMISE anything of the kind.
Cumbrian update:
big event in Carlisle last Sat night…Illuminating Hadrian’s Wall
….had a nice chat with Lab candidate…Con candidate no-where to be seen (established later, still doing things)
at a council event today in speaking with both Blues & Reds, heard nothing to move me from an overall result of 3 Blue; 2 Red; 1 Yellow.
Sorry Chris Whiteside.
doddy,watch the bbc news, they said hague told blair, ashcroft would pay 10s of millions to be a lord…now go and smell some coffee tory boy.
149.Maybe Lord Paul could make up the difference? There is of course a very simple solution to all this, ban non-doms from being parliamentarians, it’s being proposed by David Cameron, does Labour support that?
113 Richard Dodd the construction industry is always up and down .
80-82 90-92 wasn`t great either remind me who was in power.
143. Even if the Tories do not sell off bits of the BBC, further proliferation of time shifting and broadcasting via the internet will mean that the BBC’s audience share carries on dropping. Eventually the licence fee as it is will be utterly unjustifiable. The BBC as a £3+ billion a year public sector broadcaster is doomed.
The Tories do not need to attack the BBC, they can neglect it, keep it boxed in and let it naturally wither away.
57 et al There WILL be sweeteners but they will be cosmetic. They will be judged so as to avoid scaring the markets.
It would be interesting to see an analysis of opinion poll movement following budgets and PBRs. This might tell us more about the public’s response to sweeteners than a simple assertion that nobody will be fooled. Intuitively my sense is that this sort of gesture continues to work as intended.
I also think a further freeze on fuel duty will be judged affordable and will a) play well and b) draw the poison from a potentially difficult situation.
Make no mistake, the budget is an opportunity to force home the messages that some of the figures (lower than expected borrowing, growth, lower than expected unemployment) offer.
130 thanks Sth London Nick! your post at 69 made my day! (and Angus Robertson’s)
66 - the one I noticed first was on the phone. An American would typically ask “Is this Tarquin Smythe?”, ‘this’ being the voice in my ear, whereas most English people ask “Is that Tarquin Smythe?”, ‘that’ being the person on the other end of the line.
The one that really grates on me is the English habit of saying ‘cheers’ or ‘no worries’ at the end of a call, instead of ‘Goodbye’ or even the dreaded ‘have a nice day’.
149..Jojo…do you know whar tax Ashcroft is actually paying..if you dont then please belt up, if you do have that info then please let us have it..I think I might take Peinars judgement before yours..
140. I’m quoting their forecasts, not my own. Some of them have CIs attached to them.
I haven’t sat down to calculate CIs for my own forecast yet, time consuming Monte Carlo stuff, but my “judgement” has allowed me to be consistent in my estimates of the “shape” of the outcome for several years, as everyone knows.
1. Hung Parliament
2. both main parties well into the 30%s vote range.
3. Tories ahead in votes, but probably by no more than 4-5%, possibly less.
4. both parties’ seats in the 250-300 range
5. Labour could emerge as the largest party, although are not the favourites to do so.
All six independent forecasts at the conference broadly agree with this.
154 Bercows stated plan is to seek election as a councillor in Pimlico, and then stand for Parliament.
Kate Hoey. Field. Purnell has his plus points.
153. Standard disclaimer, Mike. The document appeared on the conference website today, so they can hardly not want people to view or discuss it. Perhaps they will have a slightly adjusted “final” figure either tomorrow or Saturday…
143 madasapiscine
The Conservative Party need to smash the BBC, as they did the NUM, before the BBC smashes them. Survival of the fittest.
169 - She will have to actually get selected before she can stand for Parliament for Labour though. I cant see that happening.
Looks like the health care bill is on course for a Sunday vote. It has now been published, and Obama said on TV that it would be available for ‘many’ days for perusal prior to a vote. Many looks like being 3.
One of the main reasons for the delay was the dems haggling with the CBO for several days. They claim the health care bill reduces the deficit, although increasing spending by $940 billion, and the CBO wasn’t buying it. It’s being done by alleged ‘efficiency savings’ in Medicare and Medicaid among other programs, several of which are each having hundreds of billions of dollars taken away to pay for Obamacare. As is ever the way with these things on both sides of the pond, the costs are being low balled hugely and the benefits hyped.
Obama has postponed his overseas trip, so it looks like they still don’t have the votes, but it’s close.
170.What would the tory majority have to be, for you to say this polling lark wasn’t your bag after all? Be honest now, we’ll hold you to it.
doddy, nick robinsons the political editor not peeenor,maggie thatch fan you had better watch the bbc news, they said 10s of millions would be paid,for gods sake why dont you tories just smell the coffee.
66. The way I see it, “maths” is short for “mathematics” in the plural and is surely more correct?
As for “sport” I’m sure we have a store “JD Sports” over here!
171.They won’t smash the BBC, they’ll give them dirty-looks and call them a few names, but the first term of the incoming government will be more pre-occupied with other things.
168. And I suppose you could add
6. Talk of unwind, etc benefitting the Tories is overstated, although they may do slightly better than straight UNS projects.
145 Rod - No, I wasn’t expressing my opinion. I was pointing out the absurdity of the analysis.
Just because someone fit some equations to old data doesn’t make it a valid analysis.
The budget will have “help the poor, punish the rich, now Tories what are you gonna cut” items dotted all over it. As per usual the Red Media will publish this at face value, it will be the Sundays that publish the real deal, having had a few days to unpick the thing.
157 - a toughie. On balance I’d rather have the Conservative majority but it’s a pretty close call.
As far as election-night entertainment is concerned I shall have to console myself with Balls losing his seat and Brown hiding in the No.10 bunker, run to ground by the press but refusing to concede.
Labour candidate in Tory target number 34 concedes defeat already!!
http://www.northamptonchron.co.uk/news/34Paper-candidate34-claim-about-Labour39s.6162049.jp
175.Had he chosen not to be a non-dom tens of millions more may have been payed, but that wasn’t the deal that the honours committee & downing st finally signed off on. All parties agreed that Ashcroft had to be resident, solely so he could attend parliament. It’s quite legal to be a non-dom for tax purposes & be in parliament, ask Lord Paul.
Kelner
Why not update Con weighting to reflect local elections as per the SNP?
Why is Lab sampling so far below weighting?
darling will put the minimum wage up to
£6 pound are the nasty party going to say no the increase..they will have gideon by the bollocks….giggle giggle
185.Are you tim’s child?
133. Witan, Not sure where you get him saving a Scottish Bank. He gave his pal a UK basket case to ensure that Lloyds had lions share of UK banking. HBOS is a shell of its former self and pretty pathetic at that. There are no Scottish banks left in the UK, apart from the Airdrie Savings bank.
185 jojo
what’s with Labour and the “gideon” theme.
Just your basic anti-semitic slur I suppose.
186 tim’s child would have a basic understanding of grammar, and literacy.
Sorry this is long but it is important.
It may be my lack of understanding- I don’t claim to be a statistician or psephologist, - but the Kellner posting on changes to the YouGov methodology seems oddly confusing.
Kellner says:
We found that response rates from Labour identifiers were slightly, but consistently, lower than response rates from Conservative identifiers. This was easily corrected at the weighting stage; but, on the principle that the less weighting that needs to be done, the better, we have made slight changes to our sampling frame to reduce the need for subsequent weighting.
Means they ignore some Tory identifiers?
…. we have always divided our Labour identifying respondents by those who were ‘loyal’ in 2005 (Labour identifiers who voted Labour) and those who were ‘disloyal’ (Labour identifiers who did NOT vote Labour in 2005)…… We found that when results varied from day-to-day, this sometimes flowed not from external events but from differences in the mix between loyal and disloyal Labour respondents. We have therefore decided to eliminate this variation by weighting separately for loyal and disloyal Labour identifiers. The overall proportion of Labour identifiers remains unchanged.
Those first two changes have already been implemented; neither has made any systematic difference to our results.
Or, in other words, institutionalise the previous weightings?
And still no argument as to why this loyal and disloyal applies only to Labour.
Lastly, he makes this claim:
in Scotland, our party ID figures have not kept pace with the cumulative changes that have occurred since the SNP came to power in 2007. From this week, we are adjusting our sampling and weighting methods to take account of this .…… these changes to our Scottish data have no bearing on GB-wide polls… as party-ID weights for these polls are applied on a GB-wide basis.
Whutttttt? How can that be. If you need to change weightings for part of the Uk surely that modifies the effective weighting for all of the UK?
And why make three changes if they either have no bearing or no effect. Very odd.
Where are the experts please. Perhaps what he says is sensible but it does nothing for me.
Sorry, the Kellner posting is here:
http://today.yougov.co.uk/commentaries/peter-kellner/weighting-system-changes
185.
The nasty party will just accuse Brown of conducting a ’scorched earth’ policy and do away with any inflation-busting increase to the minimum wage when they unveil their emergency budget on the 1st of July.
FULHAM 3 JUVENTUS 1 4-4 agg GAME ON
Fulham 3-1 up now..
185 that sums up labour they will poison everything just to win points after the election all they care about it labour not the country and most certainly not anyone who works hard for a living.
Looks like a Labour PPC has gone off message and said he is going to loose. This is in a marginal…
http://www.northamptonchron.co.uk/news/34Paper-candidate34-claim-about-Labour39s.6162049.jp
alan, i am jewish myself..whats your problem?
185. With all due respect I think you should consider seeking some help.
YouGov, like someone else we know , only ansewer the question they wanted to be asked
179. You are not pointing out anything. You are expressing an opinion about an analysis you don’t like. There is nothing inherently absurd about it. Voting patterns are very stable. There are usually two parties (Lab and Con since 1924, prior to that Lib and Con) vying for power, and the vote lead of one over another is usually less than 10%, often much less. This stability lends itself well to long-trend analysis.
Lebo’s analyses go even further back, to at least 1910, IIRC.
Based on voters changing parties from the 2005 Election, on all the posters except YouGov it gives Cons 38%, Lab 28%, Libs 19%, Oth 15%.
Forget all the ways YouGov change their system this as to be the best way of finding out how people will vote.
Hodgson for England?
The Northampton candidate for Labour should be congratulated for his common sense and honesty. He will lose on national and local issues. Labour civil war simmers nicely there.
#202 -Instead of Beckham?
OT
Channel 4 news - NO mention of Ashcroft in headlines or first section of programme. How peculier?
197 jojo
the other half is BNP then.
What odds are there on Hodgson being next Englamd Manager.
who cares about channel4 news, bbc news at 6 would be watched by millions.
On the main topic. It would be great to look at alternative theories of where the election is going, especially if they are explained without recourse to a requirement to become a statistical expert.
On the budget, if he does go down the give-away route then it can be reminded that it is a political budget, without consideration of the nation’s finances. Nice things to do, but will lead to higher debt, higher interest and lower spending. Golden opportunity to make a start missed etc…
162 Dez..I know all about he construction industry in those years..I had lots of very nice houses built.
Old Holborn points out
8.1 million economically inactive
7.0 million public sector
equates to 50% of the entire workforce be supported by the other 50%. No wonder we’re in the shit.
http://bastardoldholborn.blogspot.com/2010/03/816-million-unemployed.html
Evening all,
Has anyone seen the latest Yougov poll detail. Its not been published on their web-site. Have they broken the agreement about psting within 18 hours already?
alan i hate the bnp,and look closely at the tory party for many black or asians,no wonder most of the ethnic population dont vote for the nasty party.GET REAL KID.
214 jojo
oh really ? explain the gideon joke then.
168 - Rod.
“3. Tories ahead in votes, but probably by no more than 4-5%, possibly less.
5. Labour could emerge as the largest party … “
That’s a hell of a combination! I appreciate you go on to say that they’re not favourites to but to even contemplate Labour being ahead in seats with the Tories ahead on votes strikes me as quite a brave projection.
207 - There’s no market, I’ve been looking to back him for 18 months now, I think he’s a shoo in.
200 Rod - Wrong. I am pointing out that an analysis of data many decades old, in a completely different world, is flawed because you can not control for all the massive changes which have occurred since. That is not my opinion, it is a massive flaw in the analysis, just as a physical experiment might be flawed if you didn’t hold (say) temperature constant.
In addition, the original point was about systematic errors in polls, where modern methodology bears no relation to that yesteryear.
But if you want to believe that the election in 2010 can be forecast by looking at the public’s reaction to Gaitskell and Attlee - or indeed Baldwin and Lloyd George - feel free to do so. Indeed, why not go back a bit further? All the way to Nostradamus would give a bigger data set.
121
‘Its easier in opposition.’
Dez, is that why the Lib Dems after around 100 years in opposition are so laid back?
what joke?dont you like the posh name?the ethnic people no alot of tories are NASTY..fact.
ObamaCare
The final deal is apparently made.
Here’s the Reconciliation Bill :
http://biggovernment.com/publius/2010/03/18/house-reconciliation-bill-full-text/
Now — is there CongressPeople who previously voted “no” but who stated they’ll vote “yes” this time around (other than Kucinich and the 3 retiring Congressmen)?
The next 72 hours promise to be bloody interesting…
217 - Richard III negatives made all the difference, with Henry VII scoring higher on the “Which leader do you think is less likely to set fire to your grain store” question.
211. Alanbrooke
The registered unemployed are not included in those figures (they are not considered economically inactive). You need to add another 2.5 million onto that figure…..
219 jojo
there are many people with posh names Quentin Davies for instance. I don’t see the stream of jokes.
The gideon meme is to use jewishness as a dog whistle for certain voters.
222 jsfl
it was only when I saw the two figures together I realised what a raw deal the people in the private sector are getting.
219. Jojo
But it was New Labour’s New Imperialism wot killed hundreds of thousand of Muslims in Iraq and Afghanistan - so who is the Nasty Party?
Even Nick Griffin wants our troops back home!
Re 222 Relevant links:
http://www.redragonline.com/2010/03/lowest-uk-employment-rate-since.html
And see yesterday’s post here:
http://burningourmoney.blogspot.com/
221 tim - Yes, but of course polling has improved since the old days. YouGov now correct for ’shy puritans’ and ‘disloyal cavaliers’.
223. Because Davies is:
a) pretty anonymous and unimportant to be frank
b) now in Labour.
Both of which takes him out of the firing line for the “Tory Toffs” line of attack being used, no anti-semitism, just good old class warfare.
226 jsfl
the picture is truly dire. How are we going to get out of this ?
224. Indeed. Mind you I do wonder how many of the unemployed and economically inactive actually want to be in that situation?
223 Alanbroke, using a person’s non-preferred given name as a joke/insult seems devoid of content to me. Given the number of people that enjot it, however, it puzzles me why we never hear “James” being used to lampoon Mr Brown.
228 corporeal
I have never come across gideon as a posh name, it is a jewish one.
Why don’t you go the whole hog and call him Y-ideon - you know you want to.
227 - Now that was a campaign fought in the marginals.
222. Albeit subtract some from the figure.
Econ inact includes all those who are looking for a job and would like one within the next year. Includes students who will want one after graduation, people currently suffering ill-health, parents planning to return to work etc.
We’ve reached the stage where a swing of 8.7% in the marginal seats would be enough to deliver the Tories the 117 seats they need to win on election night:
http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dC1xYVZtRklRVzZrMTNON0dRXzJ2Nnc&hl=en_GB
Bristol East is target number 170 and the 117th target so far declaring on the night. The Labour majority there is 17.35%.
229. I don’t think we are going to get out of it.
Its amazing to think Labour are already throwing in the towel in Northampton South considering Tony Clarke held the seat for Labour in 1997 and 2001. Shows how far Labour have fallen in the East Midlands.
231 As he is a Glaswegian surely it should be Jimmy Brown?
223 - is it not a reference to the financial genius gideon gono ?
236 jsfl
well certainly not in the short\medium term.
Seems to me that its pretty obvious that the scrutiny Committee on Ashcroft were not worried about tax status but rather whether he was resident in the UK so he could lawfully be admitted as a member of the Lords.The tax status is something that has entered the debate more recently.It was where he was actually living that was a worry at the time. If the Scrutiny Committee are now saying that tax status was meant to be part of the deal then it begs the question, why single out Ashcroft on this matter - why have they not made this a condition of the Labour non -doms??? After all it could fairly be argued that Lord Paul has got away with not paying millions of tax in the UK as well.
I am glad the Tories boycotted this political stunt of a Committee and am only sorry that such a good MP and guy as Tony Wright has allowed his standards on what Parliamentary Committees are meant to be about.I have yet to hear one question being asked on this committee why Lord Pauls tax status was not made an issue by the scrutiny committee.
Yeaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaah
Fulham 4 Juventus 1
4 mins left
232. Then I can inform you Gideon sounds posh. Glad to enlighten.
And you should avoid throwing around accusations of anti-semitism so lightly, it only dilutes them.
237 - can’t they get whelan and his union megabucks to make a few calls ?
243 – corporeal, as I’m sure you are aware, Osborne’s first name is Gideon but he chooses to go by his middle name of George - just as Gordon Brown chooses to be addressed by his middle name instead of his first name of James.
It is basic good manners that you extend the same courtesy to both.
243 corporeal
try enlightening yourself on the effects of your smears, since you convince no-one
And if posh is the only argument you’ve got, go through the ranks of your party and see who stands the test; Harman, Benn, Sainsbury…
Try having some policies for a change.
215 If the Conservatives finish up 1/2% ahead , then it’s likely Labour would finish ahead in seats. At 4/5%, I think it’s most unlikely.
For once I agree with tim (!). I think that the leader ratings are currently pointing to a Conservative win.
245. And I always do as a rule. I just get annoyed at people throwing around pretty baseless accusations of anti-semitism.
246. No you see, I’m not a Labourite, I was just pointing out your accusation of anti-semitism was pretty baseless.
243 - gideon was also a cartoon duck with a giant neck. I have seen labour clowns on other forums, mse for example, refer to him as gideon too.
Definite shift of tone at the Coffee House. They’re turning more Cameroon by the day.
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/5850843/its-turning-into-an-extremely-good-week-for-osborne.thtml
247 - That’s not what I said, I said that Camerons lead may have stopped falling, but that’s just on one poll after a nine month trend.
Simply stunning from Fulham. Simply stunning…
248 corporeal
I treat the slur as I find it, that you cannot see others view your smears from a different angle maybe says you have more work to do.
Also “posh” doesn’t offend as many people as you hope. Particularly when those shouting are among the richest in the country.
Sorry Gideon is a ‘posh’ name?
Well bugger me with fishfork?
I went to a school that was so posh, the gym was called James.
We had no Gideons at our school
There was nothing I recall on Ashcroft in the ITV News.
Must be some BBC & Sky fascination. The C4 News omitted to quote Hayden Phillips but did quote leftie Brenda Dean.
Clearly a Labour peer is more to be trusted than a retired senior civil servant.
254 - Where have you got the idea that Gideon is a Jewish-specific name from, if it was Gidon you’d have a point.
it seems Motormouth Mann’s threatening letter has been responded to on Youtube of course.
http://iaindale.blogspot.com/2010/03/john-mann-reaps-what-he-sowed.html
Tee Hee Hee
On the Gideon debate, Mr Polly has just remembered an old TV programme ‘Gideon of Scotland Yard’ - apparently broadcast in the days of Dixon of Dock Green. It rings no bells with me. Anyone remember it? Maybe the Gideon references are intended as a compliment.
252 There’s AR as well.
257 The only Gideon’s I’ve ever met are Jewish.
However, I suppose the reason why anti-Conservatives keep saying “Gideon” is because they think the name sounds a bit silly.
342 - great result for fulham. Especially after the brawling at the away leg.
YEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!!!!!!!!!
Fulham win 5-4 on aggregate
263 - Liverpool v Fulham Final. It’s written in the stars.
245: ‘…but he chooses to go by his middle name of George…’
Well I never - I’ve got something in common with Ozzy. I was christened Eunous Stark Dawning, but chose to be known as Stark because Eunous sounds silly!
Wiki to the rescue:
Commander George Gideon of London’s Scotland Yard is a fictional policeman created by John Creasey under the pseudonym J.J. Marric. He appeared in the first of 26 police procedural novels by Creasey, Gideon’s Day, in 1955.
Has quite a ring to it - Commander George Gideon.
Blimey, good old Fulham
Has Ave It been on yet? If not..
Con gain Torino
Juventus = LOL
254. You’re still claiming it as my slur, when I haven’t and don’t use the name.
I’ve never met a Gideon (although he does seem to lose a lot of bibles *rimshot*) but I think of it as a posh name fwiw and had no idea of any Jewish connection, I call it as I see it.
190 Witan
You ask good questions about the YouGov weighting change!
I’ve posted on this in UKPR and asked Anthony for a response.
My post ends “This seems to make no sense at all in GB terms. AR have the good sense to weight Scotland separately in GB polls, but YouGov seem to being perverse in sticking to inaccurate weighting of Scots in GB polls. It’s almost as if they are pretending that we will vote twice – once with a “Jimmy wig” on, and once wearing a bowler hat! – and 2-3% of us will vote differently because of our headgear!”
254 tim
Old Testament, Book of Judges. Or are you saying that’s not jewish.
But since you are awake I not we are now on day 6 with no reasons to vote labour forthcoming.
How about we’ll recruit more police for the police-state ?
Gideon is a strongly if not universally Jewish name.
However the target for Labour’s traditional anti-Semitism should surely be David Cameron, who is about 1/32 Jewish (or thereabouts) (and proud of it) according to the Jewish Chronicle.
Whereas I ain’t sure Ozzie is Hebrew at all.
259 - bit before my time - more a special branch/sweeney kind of guy - although iirc it is on dvd. The gideon also provide the bibles for hotels,
270 - I thought all Scots wore Ginger CU Jimmy wigs?
You’re destroying my stereotypes
272 seanT
I don’t think he is but why ruin a smear.
Reminds of the treatment Leon Brittan used to get.
274 TSE
I don’t mind you having stereotypes. It’s when Peter Kellner has them that concerns me - and where the hell am I going to find a bowler hat without joining the Orange Lodge?
WRT Yougov’s Scottish results, they must surely skew the UK results a bit.
If you exclude Scotland from the figures, the Conservatives usually enjoy a fair-sized lead in England and Wales, with Yougov’s series. Yesterday’s 5% lead overall was a 9% lead in England and Wales.
On the Gideon debate, Mr Polly has just remembered an old TV programme ‘Gideon of Scotland Yard’ - apparently broadcast in the days of Dixon of Dock Green. It rings no bells with me. Anyone remember it? Maybe the Gideon references are intended as a compliment
Actually I think you will find that it was Fabian of the Yard. Starring Bruce Seaton.
You lot are being cynical.
Labour would never use anti-semitic dog whistle smears.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/4217009.stm
276 oldnat
I would say Bradford and Bingley, but Brown helped close them down too.
272 - Dave’s bloodline is only important in the fact that he intends direct more cash to trickle down through it.
Inland Revenue will be able to use swabs instead of tax returns.
276 - OldNat, i buy mine from here.
Not a sign of an orangeman in site.
http://www.hatsandcaps.co.uk/category.asp?cat_id=_bowler_hats&gclid=CNaN3ZGNw6ACFQmRZgodzC4oZg
281.Boom boom
They put Gideon bibles in hotel rooms…..
281 - Get with the times. The Inland Revenue doesnt exist anymore.
Oldnat an inimitable comment.
I hope you get a useful response because every time I read the Kellner post the emptier it becomes.
Ungrateful oiks are we.
272. Cameron has an impressive Jewish pedigree - his great great grandfather was Emile Levita, a successful business man and banker, reputedly a descendent of an important Jewish scholar:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6677414.ece
258. Uproariously marvelous! That will teach the Mann not to be a tit, or will it?
I hope Brown calls the election before the cup final, or he will want to get on the winners bus, and drive around North London !!!
281 - Inland Revenue will be able to use swabs instead of tax returns.
- and merely use cotton buds on the poor?
Ach - just done a full analysis and seen Mike’s notice at 153. Can’t post it now!
Sorry, Mike - I skimmed that bit after Rod linked to the paper. Much of my analysis is methodological criticism, however (some positive, some negative).
Does it mean that I shouldn’t post it (and Rod - you shouldn’t have quoted it in the first place, old chap! I’ve just wasted an hour disproving figures that they don’t hold to anyway!)
(In short - my initial impressions seem confirmed, and the method can just as validly predict a Tory majority of 40+. And the equilibrium theory would indicate that the most accurate election for the polls should have been 1992)
281 tim
so no policies then ?
How about:
Protecting front line workers*
* unless they are in the armed forces.
272. Have we just cracked why Rod Crosby is so fixated on Cameron losing the next election?
238 Ted
Jimmy Gogsie Broon
293 - Oh please let’s not go down the Auschwitz was Nazi Butlins Camp road?
Please!
278. Seems there was a Gideon of Scotland Yard as well as a Fabian of the Yard. But I guess ‘Fabian’ certainly wouldn’t be used by Labourites as a slur.
295. Spoilsport.
283 Tim..I think Cameron intends for more money to trickle down a lot of bloodlines instead of the taxmans..What is your opinion of Gordons lies to the Chilcott enquiry and the families of dead soldiers.. and any reasons why we should vote to put the liar back in for another five years.
293 - Doubt it, if Cameron loses, a Miliband is even money to become PM within five years.
294 SD
since he’s the so-called son of the manse if favour “The Alba-kirky kid”
293 tim
ok tim if you can’t come up with anything NEW, why not run some old classics ?
Picture of Elliot Morley and a strap line ” We put the cnut in Scunthorpe”
299
lol 5 yrs, try 15 years.
How about a coalition govt with the great offices being split between nominal Muslims and Jews.
PM. D.Miliband
Home Sec Baroness Warsi.
Chancellor Grant Shapps
Foreign Sec Sadiq Khan
Pretty good I’d say.
300 Alanbrooke
299. It that a new conservative poster campaign?
302 - Didn’t your school fees cover comprehending the first half of a sentence.
291 - Andy, so what Rod’s been saying all afternoon is wrong?
300
303: tim, now I know you are absolutely f******g mad, or even worse.
re 291. Andy - I’ve just had a long conversation with the co-authors and they will be preparing a piece for publication here next week.
Hopefully they will be available to take part in the discussion.
I think that Rod was wrong to have posted the link given the caveats that he should have read on the cover-sheet.
Sounds like Rugby will be counting on the night according to this document:
http://www.rugby.gov.uk/site/scripts/news_article.php?newsID=629
That would mean that 82 of the Tories’ top 117 targets are counting on the night = 70.1%.
I have visions of Tim in a Bowler hat, decorator overalls and wearing Burnhams guy liner…. a cockwork orange stylie type of thing…
If George Osborne has a posh name now, wait until he inherits his baronetcy.
any reason why todays yougov poll data hasnt been published?? so far the data has been published in the afternoon.
tut tut, Cockwork? I meant cockwipe
303 What about a few Catholics,for fairness?
312 - Indeed Sir George will sound so much better.
315 - Chip in.
I’d add Parmjit Dhanda (Sikh) and Shailesh Vara (Hindu).
At first glance, it looks like a u-turn by YouGov. Messrs Kellner and Co have realised that they can’t defend continually having to hugely adjust their numbers in the same direction.
They also appear to have realised their Scottish polls look like they were made up by a Glaswegian in a Labour Club. For a laugh.
313 - Will George get his title before his brother gets his title back?
Fulham!!!!!!!
320 - Then you wonder why people jump on you for using the lowest of the low smears.
BBC employee tries to beat MPs for shameless grabbing of public money. No wonder she’s such a star interviewer.
http://www.pressgazette.co.uk/story.asp?sectioncode=1&storycode=45195&c=1
To answer the original question, no. The lay of the land has been known for a long time. All that we are getting now are academic prejudices tricked out in fine dress. These predictions may be right, but if they are, it will be a coincidence.
320 – tim, it’s that kind of comment that singles you out as such a nasty piece of work.
Criticise MPs by all means, but leave their spouses, siblings and their children out of it please.
312 I thought Tim was a farmer
Hi Tim how is the lambing going
BTW,for the attention of Mike Smithson,I tried several times to click on the link in the last couple of days to ‘Fat Steve’ re our upcoming meeting at ‘Dirty Dicks’-my PC kept throwing ‘Error 404 ‘ back at me.
Please could it be passed onto ‘Fat Steve’ that Patric,West Ham fan will be at Fat Dicks on Wednesday 31st March-looking forwards!
I really, really, really, want one of these
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/8543202.stm?ls
299
No way on this planet that anyone will EVER vote for David MiliBland.
Looks and sounds like the school serial wedgie-victim.
Like Brown, he isn’t media friendly.
re 327
I obviously meant ‘Dirty Dicks’,public house opposite Liverpool Street station! 
326 MaisieW
It’s the “silence of the lambing” concerns us all.
Is a farmer? As in Farmer Giles (piles) figures…
Come on Tim dont be shy, when did your lambing start
331.
328 - Awesome.
327/330 - I’m fairly certain there is a bar called Fat Dicks in Amsterdam
tim, you disgusting bastard.
Labour Party is the new Nasty Party
310, Mike,
Understood - and I’ve received and replied to your email. Given what was said, Rod shouldn’t have linked to it and quoted it extensively - I apologise (to you and to them) for having responded. I’ll not say anything on it until it’s openly published.
“I think that Rod was wrong to have posted the link given the caveats that he should have read on the cover-sheet.”
Standard Smithson response to anything that doesn’t fit his Weltanschauung: shoot the messenger…
Last time I looked the internet was a democracy or perhaps an anarchy. If it was published on the symposium website, along with all the other papers, as it was, it’s fair game. If it was posted in error, that’s not my problem.
It’s still there as of now.
http://www.dcern.org.uk/news/
People can read the caveat and draw their own conclusions.
Tim I wish you would give us your craick?, you spout on plenty about other things. What have you got Suffolks lambing outside or in
338. It pains me to say it, but:
Crap, Andy…
339 - Not sure that it all needed posting in bold. It looked like you were over-excited.
Now who was that poster who had a go at Mike and YouGov and Opinium for not posting fieldwork dates and sample sizes, but if only he had looked on their websites he could have found them?
Lets ban tim!!!!!
Is anyone watching this thing on BBC2?
re 341. Rod - I’ve just spent the last two hours trying to clear up the mess created by you. You were the one to highlight data from conference papers and you should have checked on its veracity first.
343. Rubbish and you know it. I was having a “go” at the Sun. I f*cking searched high and low all night for the figures, and it was in response to some twerp the following day who was trying to give it to me in the neck for not updating my figures!
340 – MaiseW, tim claims to be a cereal farmer, so no livestock is involved – not even chickens? – just in case you are wondering why he is able to spend so much time on PB, he also claimed to employ workers to do that sort of thing for him.
rod, you would be well advised to remember you are a guest here. If you need to speak to mike do it via email. He is easy to contact. You are embarrassing yourself.
Following Rod’s 339 and 341,
Mike,
Can you forward to Rod that email you forwarded to me?
Lib Dems of a weak constitution should avoid this article by Jeff Randall
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/jeffrandall/7475253/General-election-2010-The-Lib-Dems-are-talking-tough-on-debt-but-wheres-the-beef.html
339. RodCrosby.
We can read it now, yes. Funny how you didn’t mention it earlier…
347 - Erm no
320. Go back to sleep, Gramps. I’m still waiting for YouGov and Opinium.
Your blundering attacks would be better directed at them, not me!
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/03/16/what-if-the-price-of-a-litre-reaches-gbp-120/#comment-1478329
346. Crap, Mike. If it was on their personal website or something, you might have a point. It wasn’t, and you don’t.
It’s still on the symposium website.
http://www.dcern.org.uk/news/
Not my problem, not yours either, so stop whingeing…
348. And who the f*ck are you then?
The butler?
Mike have you been emailed/texted tonights yougov?
348 Tim must be having an early night
Tim if your still with us. What about the barley, have you started ploughing yet
Rod = straight red!!!!
Cheerio
Cheerio
Cheerio
Never mind rod - perhaps clare tansley thomas curtis can sort it out for you!
Go Lille!!!!!!
rod, the vast majority of people who read this site think you are a prick, don’t go out of your way to prove it to the remainder.
It seems to be getting a bit heated on here, maybe this cute alpaca will help to calm things down.
http://www.kilblaanfarm.com/alpaca.jpg
359 Knew a girl like that once
359 -
…in other news…
are there any polls due tonight except for the YouGov tracker?
358
Evening everyone. I hope everyones in a happy mood and all set for tonights YouGov?
340/353 Rod Crosby
When you publish your working method for everyone to see , then maybe people will take you seriously. Until then I suggest you refrain from criticising other people.
this kitten was asked to be polled by yougov…
http://www.dailypets.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2007/07/kitty1.jpg
359 - How about the surfing Alpaca?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pmxFDrYRAv0
362 jascow
1. It’s not a tracker
2. Kellner has admitted that YouGov have deliberately left their overestimate of Labour in Scotland in their GB data.
366 Ave it
It’s a ginger kitten, so probably Scots. YouGov don’t need to poll it, they just mark it down as Labour.
Oh dear, Rod.
Can everyone try and find some toys on the floor.
Fido has just heard about Labour’s new shot to kill tax policy
http://www.seriousinternets.com/hotlinkthis/images/3969one-ugly-dog-a78.jpg
365. (A newbie, obviously)
Or perhaps a goldfish.
Hard to tell.
366 Clear Tory kitten Ave It, giving the trademark ‘paw power’ Tory salute.
Aloitious T Kitten (Con) 29,274
Furdy F Cat (Lib Dem) 5,602
Macavity Brown (Lab) 71
Con gain Catmandu
364 - It’s OK, I’m here to pour oil on troubled waters.
356 - I seem to have spent today bottle feeding sensitive dumb animals, does that count?
369 hahahahahahahahahaha!!!!!!!
yougov =
Could today be the most interesting YouGov poll of the series. Or the most boring?
The excitement is building.
368 Do we now apply your Tory +2 and Labour -1 theory to YouGov past polls?
373 374
370 - Wait till the evening of May 6th and the early hours of May 7th.
Either way, we are going to be knee deep in toys.
according to the FT front page, it looks like darling will do the right thing for the country and use the ’surplus’ to cut debt. Well done darling. I think the tories need to start heaping praise on darling and drum home that if brown wins the election darling wont be here to do the right thing.
I’m registered with YouGov but until this morning had never received a political poll. Today I received one where it asked who I was going to vote for and how likely it was along with how much I agreed with Conservative, Labour and LibDem policies (on a sliding scale).
Darling says Osborne is right!
The Financial Times claims that Alistair Darling will use a revenue windfall to cut the UK’s level of borrowing by between £5bn and £10bn.
Front Page of the FT
30 mins to yougov
oddly enough comedy hour on GOLD starts at 10 too!
YouGov polling….
Just wondering whether Kellner’s clarification poses more questions than it answers. I really cannot believe that they’re classifying BlairConservatives who voted Labour in 1997, 2001 & 2005 as LabourLoyal.
I can understand that they’re classifying the ‘core vote’ as LabourLoyal but not the BlairConservatives.
These people voted for Blair, not Labour. They’re Labour DISloyal. And Blair’s gone and they hate Brown!
So the whole basis of the YouGov PartyID has got to be suspect. It’s based upon a misclassification a whole heap of the electorate.
Just because they voted for Blair 3 times doesn’t make’em LabourLoyal. So, if a whole proportion of the LabourID YouGov panel has been mis-classified, no wonder YouGov is the outlier.
And Kellner’s post doesn’t exactly acknowledge this. He’s presupposing that his PartyID weighting is right. It may well be. But if the constituents of each PartyID are mis-placed, then it’s Garbage In, Garbage Out.
376 I don’t think we are having any for a couple or so days
7 weeks to proper exit poll!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
359. Or, possibly a great mellow piece of music from 1960 will help to placate everyone.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tSsiS-v6_6Mate everyone.
380. Also, is this an indication darling isnt too certain about Q4 and Q1 growth figures? It would catastrophic if he announced tax cuts then two days later revised Q4 gdp was negative or Q1 just weeks before the election was very weak!
The equivalent of more than 2,000 new primary schools will be needed within the next eight years to cope with a massive increase in pupil numbers
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/educationnews/7299786/Primary-school-admissions-crisis-as-birthrates-soar.html
I was just thinking how pbc has entered the doldrums.
We are in a phoney war and some people are getting frustrated their agenda isnt accepted.
When the election campaign starts, things will change. What will be most interesting are the debates. The 3 way with Ed Balls was perhaps a sign of things to come.
Labour ministers wont be able to rely on the spin machine, Alistair Campbell, Mandelson, et al. There will be no assistance from the BBC, David Dimbleby or tame reporters that dont question and accept flannel. Ed Balls came across terribly on his own.
How about the closest yet from You Gov
36 35 18
368 - Mr Kellner says it doesn’t skew the data, yet I can’t see how that is possible.
If Labour’s poll ratings are holding up better in Scotland, which they seem to be, then a large proportion of Labour IDs coming from Scotland MUST skew the overall findings towards Labour, no?
It does seem a little odd.
Given that Ashcroft has been cleared, exonerated and nothing to answer for one more word on this subject.
It has been stated that the main concern is where Lord Ashcroft is living most of the time or where is ‘main residence’ is.
If you think about it with one or two exceptions that same question applies to the entire Government as a whole and quite a few have been already been caught red handed.
The Labour herd here seem never to mention it though…funny that?
378 - More consensus building from me.
“William Hague is not fit for any role in government, let alone that of foreign secretary. Lord Ashcroft must now meet his £100 million tax bill.”
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/hague-admits-mistake-over-ashcroft-tax-claims-1923360.html
378 Tim So your not a farmer, what is your day job
382 - Darling says Osborne is right!
Is he giving the extra cash to Osbornes family.
Now that is news.
385 - I think you are taking Mr Wells’ sarcasm on UKPR a little too seriously. There is a YouGov tonight.
393 - ‘More consensus building from me.
“William Hague is not fit for any role in government, let alone that of foreign secretary. Lord Ashcroft must now meet his £100 million tax bill.”’
tim, could you do the decent thing and just tell people you’re quoting Chris Huhne?
393
zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
BBC2 - Widdi is brilliant.
A politician telling a constituent to go f~ck themselves.
More of that please.
359. Brilliant.
360. You keep telling yourself she was a girl.
It is a pity that Huhne looks like holding on in Eastleigh. He is becoming an MP that I might celebrate more to see the back of than Ed Balls.
This may be a conspiracy theory too far.
I have noticed that Budget day is on the 24th March the same day I note we have our digital changeover day so we lose some of thwe TV some of the day apparently. Naturally there will also be utter confusion as people try to reprogram their TV’s and of course the lead story the following morning will be just that for those that were successful and manged to find the new channels.
Or is that just in this area of the South West? Don’t know anyone else having to changeover on the 24th?
Terrible really being so cynical but the Government have conned us so much that its hard not to believe in any timings they choose now.
386 - Exit polls can be wrong though in 1987 the initial prediction was of Con majority of 26 and in 1992 they spent half the night musing on the hung Parliament that never happened. 1997 exits underestimated the majority Labour got, I can’t remember 2001 as watching the election was like taking a large sedative adn 2005 I think was just about in the right zone IIRC
399
I’ll ask her to speak to you then.
404 yes i believe the phrase in 1987 was ‘just look at the way labour’s coming back’
just read a couple of the papers from the academics.
they are shambolic, how social “scientists” get to peddle this rubbish as science is beyond me. As I am sure they believe their work, I would be interested to know how much cash they have on with the bookies.
404 2001 was spot on really - 10pm bonged and headline was ‘no change, Labour headed for second landslide’
Went to bed hacked off.
405 - Cruel but fair self analysis there MTF.
Had a wee drinky?
7 weeks ago, we were looking forward to Blair giving his evidence to Chilcot. Doesn’t seem very long ago.
In 7 weeks time - we’ll be looking forward to Prime Minister David Cameron.
I can wait….
YouGov are way out there.
Prediction: Tory lead down to 3.
399 really Maggie Thatcher Fan? How strang?
I thought you would be the one that would be most concerned that the hypocites on the Government benches attach someone who they say is doing precisly what they do
Like last night I have not been sent an embargoed copy of tonight’s YouGov poll.
attach - attack
392 If Mr Kellner is correct and the change in weightings to the Scottish polls is simply a 2% overstatement of Labour and 2% understatement of SNP then not applying these to GB figures will only mean an overstatement of 0.2% of Labour and understatement of 0.2% of Others .
I wouldnt trust anything said on UKPR, its deffo a labour leaning site.
402 - ‘It is a pity that Huhne looks like holding on in Eastleigh.’
Surprised to see Huhne’s only been an MP since 2005. What accounts for his swift and dazzling rise within the Lib Dems?
412 - Have we become Persona Non Grata in Mr Kellners eyes?
404. I reakon this will be a year where the exit poll gets it wrong. I think the exit poll will point to a Hung Parliament with the most likely outcome being a minority Conservative government.
In the end it’ll be a Tory majority if around 20-40, IMO.
404 - while opinion polls and exit polls are more right than wrong (so are weather forecasts), they are not tablets of stone. Political betting is about managing uncertainty, not in claiming a spurious certainty.
416 Big fish in a small (talent) pool…
412 – Mike, you’ve upset the narrative - its time to start building bridges.
407 - Yes that was soul destroying.
384. Bunnco
I went through the tracker numbers to night and calculated what the average weighted vote shares are so far (including DK / WNV).
Con 33 Lab 23 LD 14
Now in terms of the Labour and Conservatives votes these are not far away from the last BSAS Survey which speculated that the country had for the first time since 1989 considered itself conservative. The figures they quoted were Con 32 Lab 25 LD 9.
Now there are no doubt good reasons why so many Libdem voters dont identify with them (protest voters for example) but in any case its not that far out and the closeness of the Con and Lab figures makes me think there may well have been a sea change in party identification by the electorate. In which case, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Yougov Party ID weightings (Con 26 Lab 32 LD 12) are noticeably out in terms of both the Conservative and Labour shares.
408 mumbers channged tim, I thought Widdi could be the right person to give you the benefit of her forthright opinion.
What accounts for his swift and dazzling rise within the Lib Dems?
Not many to choose from?
What dates are realistically left for the GE now? Presumably only May 6,13,20,27,June 3?
Too late for April?
418 - Am I right in thinking, the exit polls shares are then punched through UNS to give a seats total?
Could we have the situation where the exit polls are roughly right in getting shares right, but wrong in the seat totals.
But they should have been ‘cooked’ rather than put through UNS
422 I was having a most fabulous meal that night in Pisa - the only election night I have ever turned my back on. The result was just inevitable.
I have now been sent tonight’s numbers
Well I’ve always been one of the biggest defenders of YouGov on here, but I have to say Peter Kellners behaviour comes across as being very petty and think-skinned. What on earth does he think he’s going to achieve by denying Mike the embargoed figures when they will be appearing on other sites at 10pm anyway?
By the way, having caught up with the last thread, the question on freefalling all the way through the centre of the Earth never had the correct answer:
[ultrapedant mode=on]You’d never get there due to being a smear on the wall* - the Earth’s rotation would ensure that (the surface is moving in one direction, no movement at the core, movement of the surface in the other relative direction on the far side. Unless the hole was very very wide indeed, you’d hit the wall within a few hundred miles.
*Unless the evacuated tunnel/hole is from the North Pole to the South Pole precisely.
[/ultrapedant mode]
Forget the narrative. Talk to people in the Supermarket, at work, in the pub. Do you get any sense that Labour are anywhere near within 3 or 4 points? I certainly don’t and I live in a marginal Labour seat.
It has been 40 30 20 for a long long time now and that is how it will finish up. Everything else is MOE and noise.
420 - Not really that big, the reason is he has an ego three times the size of his constituency.
430
429. Great news and I take back my rant about Peter Kellner. A top man.
427 - Or indeed VIPA’d?
435. A quicker u-turn than Labour’s on the dog tax.
435. Timing is everything, GIN.
416 Perhaps it was the fact he was a Brussels Gravy Train passenger from 99 to 05 just like Cleggie?
437. Hey, I don’t mind holding my hands up and saying I’m wrong when I am.
427, TSE,
Maybe in the past (I don’t know), but as of 2005, the exit poll focussed on getting the seat share right primarily (the vote share seemed to be a slightly lesser concern). David Sanders’ team chose over two hundred carefully selected wards in selected constituencies (from recollection), specifically to pick up things like regional swing and marginal swing and tactical voting. Their model coped with these extra factors, and on the back of that plus probabilistic swing, got the result spot on (an element of luck was needed to get it exactly right in a probabilistic world, but still - seriously impressive). They noted that a “straight” UNS would have predicted a 100 seat Labour majority, and even probabilistic UNS (with that particular clumping of seat majorities) would only have improved it to about an 88 majority - the rest was down to selection of exit poll locations, use of regional/marginal/tactical effects and the model being robust.
440. I should have added a far more graceful u-turn than Labour’s.
441 - Thanks Andy for answering that (and all your posts, they are very informative)
Same old same old.