What happens if there is no GREEN/UKIP/BNP standing?
March 19th, 2010
How would the vote split?
Lots of talk today about how many candidates the “others” - GREEN/UKIP/BNP - will actually have standing in the election.
UKIP looks as though it will have in excess of 500 but the other two parties are probably going to fall short by quite a distance.
With this segment running quite high in a number of polls the question is how would this go if potential voters have not got someone to support in their constituency.
This is a question that we ask every month in the PB/Angus Reid polls to those who indicated support for the three parties. These are the findings from the latest survey.
| “What if no GREEN/BNP/UKIP candidate standing in your constituency…” | Share |
|---|---|
| CON | 20% |
| LAB | 8% |
| LD | 18% |
| Other/DK/won’t say | 56% |
| PB Angus Reid poll March 15 |
PaddyPower has overall vote markets for both the BNP and UKIP.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
FPT,
I also love the way that the s##t is hitting the fan with BA, RMT, etc and Muckguire takes a personal day to go to the races. I really do wonder what the Mirror pay him for, he seems to do f all work for them.
That other/dont know is what the parties need to focus on.
Updated Tory target list / declaration times:
http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dC1xYVZtRklRVzZrMTNON0dRXzJ2Nnc&hl=en_GB
85 / top 117 targets counting on night.
147 / top 200 targets counting on night.
ot
bbc parliment channel ashcroft my god what tosh, they are absolutely, bullying sir hayden phillips, what a farce.
FPT - James Burdett et al -
“458.Latest Republican voters poll on their candidate -
28% Romney
24% Huckabee
23% Palin
11% Paul
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_National_319.pdf
447 - Petraeus is persona non grata after pointing out that Israel is endangering US interests.”
Some care has to be taken with these figures if UKIP is planning 500 candidates.
That might disproportionately hit the Tory’s chances of 2nd preferences, leaving the LDs as the big winners if Greens are not standing locally.
6 - Thanks for the bit of info ukpaul.
I’m not sure i’m going to bet anything else on the American presidential election until much closer to the time.
Any one else getting sound problems with AQ on iplayer ?
by Kristin March 19th, 2010 at 8:05 pm
UKIP said today that they wouldn’t put up candidates against “Eurosceptic Tory MP’s”.
What is their definition of Eurosceptic and how many would it include?
Seems Charlie is getting very narky about the Rant on Sunday investigation, wonder what they have dug up on him?
gordon prentice, what a righteous pillock.
10 Pearson said only 5 or 6 fall into his bracket
There are 14 seats the Tories need for a majority which are still down as a Friday count:
1. Cheltenham
2. Westmorland
3. Milton Keynes N
4. Milton Keynes S
5. Northampton S
6. Watford
7. Birmingham Edgbaston
8. Cleethorpes
9. Great Yarmouth
10. Lancaster
11. Northampton N
12. Leicestershire NW
13. Morecambe
14. Waveney
Voodoo poll,
http://www.pinknews.co.uk/2010/03/19/second-poll-shows-young-gay-people-heading-to-the-tories/
Re: UKIP 500 @ 7
Can we clarify whether UKIP actually are standing 500 candidates or if they are just blowing smoke rings – seems an awful big task for a very minor party and they’ve not got that much money afaik to throw around.
10 Why dont you give them some pointers Tim, you seem to know all about it..
14. I think in the next week or two most of the seats that are planning to Friday count will come round.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8576870.stm
the timing of this is very suspicious. QWhat odds Keir Starmer is going to release the name of a tory some time in the election campaign for his masters in the Labour party, and their friends at the BBC.
We will see, I guess.
18 Gin..How many are planning on the Thursday count..
@10 tim, did they actually name a party or just say eurosceptic
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/thetorydiary/2010/03/lord-pearson-tells-ukip-he-wants-his-party-to-stand-down-candidates-in-seven-or-eight-constituencies.html
18 - Let’s hope, we could always threaten to put the heads of recalcitrant returning officers on spikes.
in fact the whole committee is a bunch of ‘righteous’ pillocks.
14. Andy - I believe Warwick and Leamington is counting on Friday.
16 SimonStClare
Info here on UKIP site:
http://candidates.ukip.org/index.php
17 .I’m sure that for tim “eurosceptic” means commemorating Hitler’s birthday.
11. Over-familiarity with a horse?
7. The vast majority of those will be paper candidates.
Apologies if this has been posted before
Alex Salmond rows back on general election TV debate demands
Alex Salmond has scaled back his demands to play a full part in three televised general election debates by indicating he would settle for limited participation.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/scotland/7481963/Alex-Salmond-rows-back-on-general-election-TV-debate-demands.html
15 – What an unfortunate choice of photo for Cameron – or not as the case may be..!
14 I think on the night(morning) the writing on the wall really won’t need the confirmation of those seats.
19. The rumours are that that is not a Conservative MP.
9 Do not adjust your set, sadly Hague really sounds like that. Audience don’t seem to like him, much more applause for other 3.
In order of likelihood if they have no candidate of their own i’d guess something like:
BNP: Stay home / Ukip / Tory, 40/40/20
–no Ukip either: Stay home / Tory, 70/30
Ukip: Tory/Stay home 50/50
Green: Lab-Lib tactical vote 100
UKIP obviously mean a special kind of Tory euro-skeptic if they are only boycotting 7/8 seats!
30 twitter rumours or legit rumours?
6. I’d say Petreaus was head and shoulders above the rest if he stood.
Petraeus-Palin 2012, dream team
@31 seems to have cleared now thanks. I couldn’t hear Balls speaking which might have been a blessing in disguise.
“BBC shelves Panorama Lord Ashcroft investigation
Panorama programme on Lord Ashcroft unlikely to air before election after series of interventions by senior Tories
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2010/mar/19/lord-ashcroft-bbc-panorama”
It is much more interesting to investigate The Guardian’s murky Non-Dom tax status.
Perhaps the incoming government could take a look.
34 “legit rumours” surely an oxymoron?
In Cheltenham the Green Party is not only not standing but has endorsed the Lib Dem MP. Even so the guesstimate locally is athat around 80% of the 1000 green vote last time will go Lib Dem. Still a help in a seat with a minute majority - every little helps!
omg heff putting boot into fories over ashcroft. Tories = like battered wife making excuses for abusive husband (= ashcroft). limited applause tho.
35 - I’ve always been a fan of Petreaus ever since I read Rick Atkinson’s book about him commanding the 101st Airborne Division (Air Assault) during the Iraq invasion.
38 yeah, probably, but you know what I mean.
41 - It’s very highly recommended book
“In the Company of Soldiers”
34 - Well Guido, usual caveats apply.
http://order-order.com/2010/03/19/met-sends-harry-cohen-file-to-cps/
41 Yeah same - very clever and very sensible at the same time. Top bloke.
FPT “I see pb.com is being overrun by the contents of comparethesmeartwat.com
by James Burdett March 19th, 2010 at 7:34 pm”
James, that is the funniest one liner on PB.com so far this year!
Take a bow.
42 Indeed
35 - Petraeus is a liberal Republican, he wouldn’t even give Palin a second glance.
19 Apparently under a Labour government and their appoint DPP, Baroness Uddin wont be charged.
Baroness Uddin was living in a cheap Housing Association house - housing that is reserved for the needy - and claim expenses for a house she didnt live in.
I do not believe there is no case to answer. She should be arrested and charged. If she is innocent, it will come out in a trial and she will be publically exonerated.
I think we need a new government to investigate ig there is any new evidence. Perhaps a witness wasnt identified last time round.
I am sure Baroness Uddin of Housing Association Accomodation and Expenses will like to clear her name.
Ha ha.
Hague crucifies himself on AQ over Ashcroft.
25 – Seth OL, cheers for the UKIP link, err, lots of target seats but very few names as far as I can tell.
I guess we shall see closer to the day whether these 500 materialise or not.
Nadine seems to be getting even more press attention.
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/article-23817078-bedfordshire-mp-defends-main-home-in-the-cotswolds.do
Ha ha.
Hague gets the loudest applause of the night on AQ for his answer on Ashcroft
48 Ah well, nobody’s perfect.
50 … not. Balls making a rubbish job of playing a good hand.
I put this up earlier in the day
On THREAD:
This Harris poll proves to me that I am right, and have been right for months, when i said that this GE will be different from previous ones.
The smaller parties, notably BNP and UKIP, will take votes from the two main parties and to a lesser extent the L/Dems. The BNP will take from Labour and UKIP will take from the Tories.
I also expect that the Greens will get squashed and will not gain any seats; in fact they will lose share.
So, all to play for. bring it on.
by weathercock March 19th, 2010 at 3:10 pm
I’d have thought that mega-fine Ukip got would have messed up their chances a bit.
53 But Tim said he was being crucified…Whats happening..
#55 He couldn’t give himself “good hand”
“Petraeus is a liberal Republican, he wouldn’t even give Palin a second glance.”
ukpaul, as politicalbetting’s resident Palin hate cheer leader, I suspect your views are tainted. Petraeus certainly likes Palin more than you reckon.
Petraeus is a War Hero and a Republican War Hero. Palin is a great Republican supporter of the US Forces.
unless you are a republican or a war hero, I am sure you have no understanding of what makes them tick. You are just not qualified.
Palin will be the next USVP and that is just eating you up.
Hmmm, so Timmy says one thing, other posters say another…remind who is the proven liar around these parts?
55 - Balls just lied on AQ , it was widely reported in the press that Lord Paul was considering his position if the law changed to stop non-doms sitting in the Lords.
57
Probably not. There are still plenty of people willing to help fund them, particularly given how partisan the whole fine issue was.
Heffer assumes Brown has a conscience..
“who is the proven liar around these parts?”
Gordon Brown?
Gave it some thought. In relation to Scotland and my knowledge of it, it is an irrelvant question. The BNP would just get lynched there! The Greens have shot thier bolt by thier constant objections to everything and the rumbbling of the CO2 con, they would take votes more from the Fib Dems and they have collapsed in Scotland! UKIP are also a non entity so like the BNP are of no real threat to what there is of the Tory vote there!
Heffer is sounding pretty sensible on AQ
65 And his trolls
63 - No doubt that geriatric with more money than sense will stump up.
69 - I seem to recall Wheeler opened the cheque book again recently.
55 … cont Balls = ballsup, and sounds so like Harry Enfield doing tory boy.
And now demonstrating that he is the heir to Brown when it comes to tractor statting
And doing a “Gordon is a pretty straight kinda guy” shtick. What a pillock.
60 - You need to do some reading, maybe the article that was posted would have given you a good start.
“But he has also described himself as a “Rockefeller Republican” – a pro-business, socially liberal New Englander – who would not fit in well with a party lurching to the Right under the influence of the new Tea Party movement. ”
The thought of Palin being on the ticket is just wonderful, there are probably saner minds in the Republican leadership somewhere though. That said, she may well run as an independent on some sort of tea party ticket.
Benedict Brogan - Are the Tories saying too much?
70 - A fool and his money are soon parted.
63 Goodo.
Trouble for Petraeus is his reputation will rise and fall with the situation in Iraq. If/when Iraq unravels his reputation will drop even though (imo) he managed to get the best temporary outcome achievable given political circumstances beyond his control.
70. Did he actually do it. Last I heard he was being coy about it…
73 - “We’ve got Glenys Kinnock on Samantha Cameron and Sarah Brown,”
That’s instantly puts it on the “make sure to miss” list…
76 - http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article7035785.ece
77.Oracle, I thought that too, but I didn’t post it. Already done my Beeb impartiality bashing post earlier today.
60.
“Palin will be the next USVP”
She make John Prescott seem educated, Tony Bliar seem honest and Melanie phillips drop-dead gorgeous.
The Teamsters union was deeply corrupt, had strong links with the Mafia and organised crime, and often behaved like a bunch of gangsters. Its then leader, Jimmy Hoffa, was sentenced to 13 years in jail for bribery and fraud.
In 1975 Hoffa famously disappeared just as he was about to meet two Mafia leaders. His body was never found.
Yes, the current Teamsters union leader James P. Hoffa is the son of Jimmy Hoffa. No doubt Hoffa junior has managed to clean the union up, and the Teamsters union is a very different organisation these days. Nor should one condemn people for the sins of their parents.
But from Unite’s point-of-view, it strikes me as pretty unfortunate public relations to have backing from a body with such a notorious past.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/newsnight/michaelcrick/2010/03/a_tale_of_two_unions.html
Hmmm
Let’s read that again
“The Teamsters union was deeply corrupt, had strong links with the Mafia and organised crime, and often behaved like a bunch of gangsters.”
Would Unite rather be associated with the Teamsters or the Glasgow Labour Party?
Hague is now haunted by Ashcroft wherever he goes.
52 - So now Nadines “main home” in the Cotswolds is “recently acquired”.
Dear, dear.
got to say
“comparethesmeartwat.com
by James Burdett March 19th, 2010 at 7:34 pm”
From previous thread is superb!!!!
I didn’t need much help to laugh at tim and the bunker bot crew before that, but now!!!
72 Keep saying it and maybe a Republican War Hero would listen to, well, someone like you.
Barrak Hussein won only 52% of the vote. It doesnt take much for him to lose and he is a historically unpopular president.
If they were to run again Palin & McCain would win the next US election.
Republican War Hero Dave and Republican War Heroes’ Mom Sarah will sweep all before them.
80. Telly magic dust.
I am wary of the suggestion that UKIP hits the Tories overwhelmingly. Certainly at the Norwich North by election last July UKIP polled heavily at Labour’s expense.
AQ questions a bit rubbish. More time spent on Ashcroft than nationwide strikes or underfunding soldiers in wartime, no question on Unite, Balls full of shit and Dimbleby let Spheroids talk over everyone else, including himself.
78 TY.
So its particularly targeted at Bercow is it? It couldn’t happen to a nicer chap!
Little Timmy, over 15hrs posting today (and counting), and still going on about willies….very sad!
Of course Sarah Palin is “War Heroes’ Republican Mom Sarah” rather than “Republican War Heroes’ Mom Sarah”.
She is the Republican mom of 2 War Heroes. I have no idea how her sons vote. Perhaps they are fans of Gordon Brown and his Defence Spending.
26 - ” Over-familiarity with a horse?”
Would that be a rocking horse?
87 - All due to the unique way the impartial BBC is funded.
86 I think the ex-Labour bit of Ukip is more likely to vote Ukip and the ex-Tory bit is more likely to vote Tory (on average).
87 Dimbleby needs to do some outside broadcasting. Perhaps he could visit some warzones like his father.
34 Guido has already named the MP involved on his blog and it is a Labour MP
84 - Sad how they disintegrate so quickly into incoherence…
91. Many moons ago when I worked in the Criminal Justice system I remember someone being up at Crown Court for what was in effect over familiarity with a horse. I just kept getting these ridiculous visions in my minds eye of this person stood on a chair in the middle of a field and even more hilarious visions of someone else phoning the police to report it and describing the scene!
tim… reduced to Hague Ashcroft nonsense.. How many times have you been asked for positive reasons to vote Labour and not responded? The cock only needs to crow three times, in your case it must be at least 50 times………….
69
Certainly more sensible to fund a party that adheres to your beliefs than one that only pays lip service to them.
Wheeler is a Eurosceptic. As such he puts his money into the party that actully campaigns to leave the EU rather than one that is only marginaly eurosceptic because it is frightened of losing votes.
83 - Thanks.
92, on the plus side, the audience did, this week, come from Planet Earth rather than La La Labourland.
80 “Leftie Doesnt like Republican Candidate shock!”
Read all about it!
Palin and McCain got 48% of the US vote. The False Prophet Barak Hussein turned out to be the worst US president in history.
Palin will be US VP.
I cannot wait to see her greet Mrs Sarkozy.
96 - Your stalking of my posts makes me think that one particular cock crows far more often than that.
24 - the Electoral Commission seems to believe Warwick & Leamington will be a night count:
http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0011/83585/UKPGE-count-timing-data-2010-03-15.pdf
103, tim, you’re the one with a willy obsession
Did Balls impress you on AQ? Not car crash, it must be said, though he still lost to Hague.
Why are the Greens getting on AQ and QT? They’re less popular than UKIP and equal with the BNP. They should be on occasionally, and no more than that.
102 - I like Petraeus, I think he’d be a great candidate.
The rest of your post is not worthy of serious discussion.
The 5 stagees of grief, 1-Denial,2-Anger,3-Bargaining, 4-Depression, 5-Acceptance.
The lefties have just been introduced to the reality and are in Stage 1, Denial.
Multiple Republican US terms and multiple UK Conservative parliaments led to the fall of the Iron Curtain. Still there is work to be done.
re 97 you can’t beat this story which was in the Indy just before Christmas.
A man seen by his neighbour attempting to have it off with his rottweiller. The story ends “Edwards told the court that he no longer worked in Chester Zoo but was hoping to go to college and to work with animals.”
Not the sort of thing I’d imagine you’d want to say whilst waiting for pre-sentencing reports
105 Are you still stalking me? i thought you had gone to bed already.
Please inflict your Stage 2 on someone else.
Anyway, as we aren’t expecting polls until tomorrow I’m off. Night all (try to keep tim from obsessing about willies. It isn’t healthy).
East Lothian CLP deselection vote on Anne Moffat MP
in her favour….59 votes
against her…130 votes
77: I thought it was an ad for mud wrestling
“I cannot wait to see her greet Mrs Sarkozy”
Personally don’t think Palin will run again which is probably for the best given all the pron it would inspire.
107 - Is it wrong, that the most disturbing thing I find with that story is that he tried it on with a rottweiler?
You know, a rottweiler is one of those nice timid dogs right?
106 - Utterly bizarre, you want a centrist UK government a la Cameron here whilst hoping for a hard right fringe government somewhere else. Psychologists are going to have a field day with these people.
You’d be better off supporting UKIP, they are the closest we have to what you appear to desire elsewhere.
104 - The BBC likes crypto-communist loons
Sorry, more Ashcroft. During the first week, CarlottaVance and I had a debate about whether Ashcroft’s status had been changed during negotiations from dom to non-dom because other Labour peers had already claimed non-dom status
From the Guardian
the newly released documents do contain one fresh clue as to the reason why that bullying was so successful. The threat was made at the time that the Labour peer and donor Lord Paul’s non-dom status would be used as a retaliatory weapon. Tory chief whip James Arbuthnot was acting as Ashcroft’s spokesman and, according to the correspondence: “Mr Arbuthnot … pointed out to me that other working peers, including, he said, Lord Paul, are resident but non-domiciled for tax purposes … He is concerned about the appearance of inequity in the treatment of Mr Ashcroft in comparison with other non-domiciled working peers.”
That not-very-veiled threat certainly seems to have the hallmarks of Ashcroft’s play-the-man style. Lord Paul, a steel magnate born in the Punjab who had in the past donated £387,000 to Labour, had been “exposed” at length as a non-dom in the Sunday Times just a few days earlier. This development apparently led to a change of tone and a quiet political accommodation. For of course, Labour was vulnerable on the non-dom issue.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/mar/19/lord-ashcroft-conservative-party-funding
110 - Ouch they really don’t like her
107
I am reminded of an old Tom Lehrer quip about a friend who majored in animal husbandry - until they caught him at it.
Anyone know why the £ tanked today ?
115 “The BBC likes crypto-communist loons”
This is only possible because of theunique way it is funded.
In the US leftie biased Media is dying. People prefer Fox.
104 - Morris.
Ed Balls never impresses me, but Hague is finished as a serious politician, if he ever was one.
I thought the woman (can’t remember her name)on AQ was horrendous.
You could hear her in the background agreeing with every Balls said. She was an incredibly poor speaker. I think they only got through three questions - I see Balls was allowed to go on and on about Ashcroft and getting David Cameron’s name in there. I dislike Balls with a passion.
Caught an ‘old clip’ of him on the news a few days ago with Gordon Brown and Charlie Whelan walking up Downing Street. There is no way he can distance himself from those two clowns, he will rue the day.
re110
Hopefully she will bring a few others down with her when she starts a civil war! We can but hope!
108 - Err, I haven’t got a clue who you are, never seen you here before. You don’t appear to be very bright anyway, so I’m unlikely to have attempted to make conversation before.
Maybe the numbers are screwed, as per usual…
107.
http://secretdubai.blogspot.com/2005/10/comely-camel.html
The man got three months, the camel was put down.
It’s usually the females that get the rough end of the stick.
114 Palin hater ukpaul, nobody is listening. Go to bed.
With Moffat’s deselection, I think the following Labour held seat have not a candidate in place yet:
Stoke on Trent Central
Liverpool Walton (March 25th)
Rutherglen & Hamilton West (March 22th)
Stalybridge & Hyde (March 30)
East Lothian
Ashfield (the count must be at anytime soon)
Blackpool North
Halesowen and Rowley Regis
Crawley
117 - This is a clue http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8577304.stm
Why are the Greens getting on AQ and QT?
By Morris Dancer March 19th, 2010 at 9:06 pm.
The Greens are just another socialist party with a different colour flag. They follow the labour Party line assiduously. See Caroline Lucas yesterday on QT, and today on AQ.
“126.114 Palin hater ukpaul, nobody is listening. Go to bed.”
I suppose a shag’s out of the question?
Sky helpfully showing clips of the winter of discontent
116 Well the FT has the lowdown on Labour funding. They will have to rely on their Union mates to pay off all that debt interest they’re building up by the looks of it:
Debt of £9m hangs over Labour
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/82b35f80-338f-11df-9223-00144feabdc0.html
At least they lead by example
119 A BoE policy committee bod suggested it is possible we may slip back into recession, or that is what it is being blamed on on BBC business.
Weekend is a useful brake for it.
110.Andrea, where do they go from here after that result?
119. because brown is still pm! its actually because one of the mpc said britain might enter a double-dip recession. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8577304.stm
Ooh this will see Labour surging back in the polls
Ed Miliband promises radical Labour election manifesto
Big increases in minimum wage and reduction of voting age to 16 being considered for party’s ‘next phase of national renewal’
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2010/mar/19/labour-ed-miliband-radical-manifesto
121 - tim change the record, we are well aware of your view.
I have spent most of the day looking at UKIP’s performance in 2005. UKIP polled well in Staffordshire, in the south west and in the eastern counties. Whether the seat was marginal or semi-marginal seemed irrelevant. However, in 2005, the election was widely thought to be a foregone conclusion for Labour, which may have influenced UKIP voters.
My expectation this time is that UKIP will poll best in safe Tory seats and will be squeezed wherever the Tories can persuade UKIP voters that they will make the difference between getting a Conservative MP elected or not.
119
The pound is in a long term downtrend and rallies slightly every month. For about a week. Week has ended. Downtrend resumes..
At least that is what my chart says..
132 - Judging by that article, Labour will not be praying for a hung parliament. They wont be able to fund a 2nd election campaign
136 - Votes at 16 is an incredibly bad idea.
121 - William Hague will remain popular with straight down the line right wing voters indefinitely. With that constituency, he is beyond criticism in the same way that Cliff Richard will continue to pack out venues for as long as he continues to tour.
119.
This is the definitive answer. This is what the markets and traders read today:
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/03/19/180936/reasons-to-be-miserable-uk-edition/
Read it wand wail all ye of UK - we are in the worst place of any developed nation, on all metrics and in all ways.
Gordon Brown - economic genius he is not.
“28% Romney
24% Huckabee
23% Palin
11% Paul”
If any relatively long-standing PBer’s interested, I would lay any of those candidate winning the Republican Nomination for the 2012 Presidential Elections.
No cash have to be stored right now.
Serious offer.
We just have to negotiate the odds and a few formalities.
136: Do they mention GCSEs in filling in voter registration forms and postal votes, or is it assumed that parents will do that all for them?
119.Kristin, was it because of all the impending industrial disputes?
89 - “Little Timmy, over 15hrs posting today (and counting), and still going on about willies….very sad!”
Ah yes, I forgot, smearleader got off to an early start today didn’t he.
If the amount of time he is on here is sad, how much sadder does it make him that its on behalf of a party he claims he is noty able to vote for?
Of course that may have just been another in a long line of fibs from our timmy.
Just like his parties leader really isnt he?
I think Timmy is just bitter after he spent loads of time and effort smearing Hague over his expenses and second job(s) and it all came to nothing!
Remember the old Timmy News-Sense told us that second jobs was going to be much bigger than expenses and cause the Tories all sorts of damage!
I’m ready to give 3/1 for Romney, 4/1 for Huckabee, 5/1 for Palin, and 7/1 for Ron Paul.
Sarah Palin Forever!
130 - John Mortimore’s favourite chat-up line that was.
121 - I would have argued that foreign secretaries are serious politicians purely by virtue of their position. Since Miliband and Beckett, however, that’s no longer a valid argument. By comparison, Hague’s arrival at the FO will seem like the reincarnation of Palmerston.
144 - Looks like your health care money’s in the bank now Philippe.
HuffPo has twitter feeds so you can be ultra up to date.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/03/19/health-care-vote-live-upd_n_505731.html
134 - Christina.
Labour will select another candidate and hold East Lothian.
What do you think will happen in Mid Bedfordshire, Dorries seems ripe for a challenge by an independent, or the Lib Dems may have a shot.
Unlikely to change hands but a “recently acquired” doesn’t bode well.
The Daily Mail reveals that Bob Diamond, president of Barclays bank, has received a record £63.3m pay package, reportedly sparking “a major new row over payouts to banking fat cats.”
153 - East Lothian looks somewhat tasty from a Lib Dem perspective though.
Michael Crick on his bbc blog:
“Another contender in Stoke is the historian Tristram Hunt, who is being strongly promoted by Peter Mandelson for a seat, but was defeated by the organised forces of Unite when he recently lost to John Cryer in Leyton and Wanstead.”
Hunt has not been defeated by the organised forces…..not only he lost to Cryer, but he was also beated in first preferences by Terry Paul…Ahmed Shazad…Sophie Lindon..he just beated Rokhsana Fiaz (maybe just because they spent the first days of the campaign wondering if she was called Roxanne Riaz or Rokhsana Fiaz)…
It’s enough to look at the votes table, eh!
@Christina
Now the NEC should hurry up to give them a shortlist to select from….with less than 2 months to go. Assuming there’re no appeals or whatever (the large margin against may make her decide to go quietly now).
They should have solved the infight months ago, not now.
The new House of Commons speaker
Wed a drunken pleasure seeker
And the hobbit like guy
Always lets Gordon lie
A gay’s @rsehole wouldn’t be weaker
I just wonder how the smearleader manages to keep a farm going?
you cant drink, smoke, gamble or stop full time education until you are 18… clearly you are ready to vote! desperate again.
re139
I have the same charts! It is a downward trend that has far from bottomed out! It would be worse against the Yankee dollar but for the fact that they are in as big a mess a us!
152 — Thanks for that Paul.
My potential net gains will be of a few hundreds only — since I’ve made the mistake of selling my shares at 50%, and subsequently laying Obamacare at 60%, before buying it back at 65…. and more afterwards, to get my actual average of 70%…
I’m not complaining but I could have played it much better!
Interesting Reuters article on polling -
http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKTRE62I2AP20100319?pageNumber=1&virtualBrandChannel=0
re155
Have you not been keeping up to date with what has happened to them in Scotland since Charlie was deposed by the Merciless Ming!
158 - It’s probably a sewage farm
161 - A shame I was late onto a thread when you said you were going to sell, I was keeping an eye on it and it appeared to be clear that Pelosi knew the Stupak bloc was crumbling.
Poll on Harry Cohens MP site re the deficit. I guess this would be termed a leading question
How would you like to tackle the current economic situation?
A)Should the deficit be rapidly reduced regardless of huge cuts in public services and risking the economic recovery?
B)Or a more gradual reduction of the deficit but protecting jobs and public services?
No doubt the result will be quoted in Parliament
http://www.harrycohen.co.uk/
159. You can certainly stop full time education, get a full time job, pay full tax…
162: I think that Reuters article is syndicated - I’ve seen it elsewhere. The odd thing is that they concentrate exclusively on Angus Reid as an outlier - which it is - while ignoring the YouGov phenomenon.
143 - dear god “no more boom and bust” and “best placed” must be the sickest jokes ever uttered by that loon Brown.
166. More people have voted for A though.
166 - well it is currently 58-42 in favour of A so probably won’t be quoted in Parliament.
Watching the US news and hearing a surprising amount of talk in bars and restaurants and on the streets no one seems to believe that the Healthcare bill wont pass.
170 - It says something when you can’t even get a majority with a loaded question.
Re my 166 apparently 58% have voted for A
159 - 16-year-olds haven’t yet grown up to the fact that Labour’s raison d’etre is to steal all your money in taxes. They still think money grows on trees at that age.
Young and foolish with no sense of money. No wonder Labour want them to get the vote.
OMG!
Has the mobile version of the site changed? I appear to be able to read it now!
We now seem to have black on white or green rather than grey on white or grey!
I can read stuff now rather than guessing
132 jsfl “Debt of £9m hangs over Labour”
I’m not surprised. All these 16 hours-per-day shifts that tim puts in on PB.com don’t come cheap.
Isn’t he in breach of the Working Time Directive, though? (Or is there an opt out for members of the William Hague Obsessives Society?)
173 Harry Cohen = Spanner.
Or should that be slammer?
Mandelson is living proof that you can be scandalised more than once whilst being a member of the government and still retain the ability to be a “serious politician”.
Ashcroft is “nothing-noise” employed as a distraction to the country’s real problems - horrendous debt, 1 in 4 not working, those that are working suffering lower living standards (unless they are on the state payroll), child murders seemingly on the front page every day,industrial disputes breaking out and our political leadership being exposed as either incompetent or dishonest with bewildering monotony.
And that’s just this week.
Aah. Sky News comparing the coming Spring of Discontent to 1979.
The Unions are a WONDERFUL campaigning tool for the Conservative Party.
Is Bob Crow a Tory sleeper?
166. Moses
No doubt the result will be quoted in Parliament
I doubt it because currently the votes are a) 94 b) 66
Hardly what Harry will want to tell Gordon at PMQ’s?
Anyone seen this?
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/hugo_rifkind/article7067725.ece
“Can Gordon Brown handle the real world, honestly?”
“Think about how life is. Think about how it has become, since he got walled up in 1997. Can you honestly imagine Gordon Brown on hold with Virgin Media? Arguing with a traffic warden? Trying to get a last-minute doctor’s appointment? Interacting, in any sort of way, with Ryanair? Lordy, Ryanair. Just picture that one. Him, brazenly pretending that his hand luggage does, actually, weigh under 10kg. Screaming it, while everybody pretends not to notice and the airport police approach.
Obviously, he won’t leave office quietly. You can easily imagine him the day after the election, furiously swiping his pass, denying everything. But eventually, he’ll have to go.
And, as it all slowly sinks in, he’ll be out there, an operating human, in this grotesque computer-says-no world he’s built for us. Was ever a man more ill suited to it? Without Sarah, I genuinely suspect he might starve to death.”
ouch, ouch ouch
177. Disraeli
He’s probably signed a waiver unfortunately…
169 Floater - don’t forget who ’saved the world’….
173 Quite so
I have dutifully voted as a good citizen does
15 Good evening everyone. I can confirm that various gay/gay friendly websites are currnetly carrying out VI polls including Gaydar the most influential one which last year confirmed more gay people were intending to vote Tory than Labour for the first time ever. Caroline Lucas will not win in Brighton because the gay community is blue blue blue
What is odd is that there isn’t a UKIP candidate in Castle Point
Bob Spink as Ind UKIP?
182 - And yet, one just has to sit and nod
It’s the Treasury staff I feel sorry for. Imagine the horrible meetings they will have to have with their new masters before the real Budget in June.
182. Gordon Brown is the only PM on whom I have sincerely wished physical harm.
I am not proud of these feelings; they demean me not him.
Nonetheless if he popped a major artery the day after the election.. *I would try and cope*
185 You clearly know even less about Brighton than you do about Scotland .
mhhhhh via Iain Dale
http://www.bigbrotherwatch.org.uk/home/2010/03/dont-be-fooled-the-id-card-has-not-gone-away.html
“This list is probably not comprehensive, BUT don’t let anyone - Minister, politician, Joe Public - ever tell you the ID card scheme has gone away. The Government is trying every trick in the political playbook to press identity cards into the hands of a deeply skeptical general public.”
Once again I recommend “taking Liberties” as a good read for those who want to see exactly what Labour have done to your rights and freedoms
188. “Gordon Brown is the only PM on whom I have sincerely wished physical harm.”
You need to use your imagination more.
For example, I’ve always thought that given the opportunity, I would probably have punched William Gladstone. Just seemed like a bit of a knob.
155 James the LibDems will be 4th in East Lothian at the GE. Labour to hold.
191
I do not wish Gordon Brown any physical harm.
Mental torture can last for the rest of his life though.. An audience in Stourbridge every night seems appropriate?
This strike is SERIOUSLY BAD for Labour. Just BAD.
TAKE A LONG HARD LOOK AT THE TORY PARTY.
185 You clearly know even less about Brighton than you do about Scotland .
by Mark Senior March 19th, 2010 at 9:58 pm
Uh?
@128 James Burdett March 19th, 2010 at 9:17 pm
Thanks James.
Ps - also thought your comparethesmeartw@t.com brilliant
185.Easterross, you cannot be there already?
196 - I’ve taken your advice and I have taken a long hard look at the Tory party, and I like what I see.
189 Mark Senior. I don’t know anything about the politics of Brighton, but you actually live in Susses I believe, so it’s your manor.
Do you think that the Greens will win a Brighton seat then? If so, what are the factors in Brighton that make this likely? Or is it just a hunch?
The reason that I am asking is that I need more to go on before I risk money on it.
Thanks in advance.
188 i have alleviated my blood pressure by laying Gordon Brown’s predicted exit date on the betfair leader exit market i. e betting that he will survive as leader
the longer he holds on the more money i have made. I like making emotionally/financially hedged bets
and this one has turned out very well
189 - John Major during the siege of Sarajevo?
Re your Woman’s Hour “I’ll keep going” in the event of not securing a majority. It’s obviously good to look permanent. The rock of ages. Continents move, elections come and go, majorities grow and wither, but you, the rock of ages, hard, impervious, massive, underlying, difficult to get tent pegs into, you remain.
That can obviously play well. But with the promise to stick around whatever happens, you need to avoid the whiff of the junta. We want people to think of you as a trustworthy if slightly cranky old professor they can go to in times of trouble. Like white-bearded Mr Shorofsky in Fame. We don’t want the public to think that to get you out of No 10, Cracker is going to have to be called out of retirement to reason with you through a locked door as you squat on the cabinet table with no trousers on, Maggie Darling as a hostage, and a borrowed Glock 17 pointed at your own nuts issuing demands for a Government of National Unity. So careful how we play that one.
Clegg: This week’s media angle has been: Clegg the kingmaker. Yeah, right. This guy couldn’t make a king out of a two-piece Duplo “Make a King” kit without putting the arse on the head.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/mar/19/malcolm-tucker-election-briefing
No daily YouGov today?
198 - Merci
A night without YouGov is like a fish without a bicycle.
205 - Nope, never on a Friday.
oh! oh! JoJo throwing toys out of the cot again
I think the caps lock is still broken?
205
no its in the Sunday papers.
205. No. There won’t be any polls tonight, so everyone can have an early night.
196 “TAKE A LONG HARD LOOK AT THE TORY PARTY.”
Yes - have done. Tory party = 50 out of 100. Labour Party = 0 out of 100.
Jojo you keep repeating yourself over and over. You’ve outlived your usefulness on this site.
Get back, get back
Get back to where you once belonged
Get back, get back
Get back to where you once belonged
Get back Jo Jo
Go home
191.
I would dearly love to chin Yvette Cooper.
I thought “tim” had told us that Cameron had walked into a “mantrap” by so volubly opposing a strike that Wouldn’t Actually Happen?
tim?
tim??
timmeeeeee???
lol
208. Though when Brown actually goes to see Her Majesty we’ll have the joy of YouGov’s going everyday including Fridays and Sundays -
What a joy that’ll be.
Thanks for all the replies to 119, haven’t really followed much news today.
213 - Hitting women is never acceptable.
Plus you don’t want to go near her chin, Ed Balls has been there, you never know what you might catch.
190 Mark, my information backs up posting 15 that the gay community will be voting heavily towards the Tories.
199 Christina in Glasgow tonight at the Radisson and fly to Japan at 1pm tomorrow
Off for ZZZs now but before I go…. Super Saints beat Warrington. Leeds lose at home to HKR, after last nights events, a great 24 hrs of sport!
212.
message numbering out of synch -
follow up - I am going on holiday soon - sean t when is your next book published ?
214, 203.
tim???
FT headline:
“BA Strike to go ahead: cabin crew to walk out at midnight”
I hope they have parachutes.
201 Disraeli , Brighton Pavilion is one of the few seats on which I have so far wagered any money and it has gone on a Green victory . Having lived in both the Brighton seats for over 35 years , I have many friends who live in the constituency and whatever their normal political persuasion the vast majority are going to vote Green in May . Caroline Lucas has the Big Mo and in my opinion will not only win but win with a 4-5,000 majority .
Re-reading the post at 15.
The latest survey, of 2,738 people, found that seven per cent said they would vote for the British National Party.
As one of my gay friend has just put it.
Do my fellow gayers know that most BNPers would like to hang us in a non kinky way.
Ashfield Labour selects on Sunday - East Midlands Today are planning a live interview with the winner.
Generally agree with MrJones at 32, except that it’s not quite that clear-cut - there are UKIP people who vote Labour when UKIP isn’t standing, and at the local election in a multi-member ward we saw little stacks of people who’d split their votes BNP/Green and BNP/LibDem. There’s a straight “I hate the big parties” vote out there.
Curiously, BNP intervention actually hurts the Tories, not because the voters were Tory before but because more would be Tory now.
221. April 15. The Marks of Cain.
http://www.amazon.co.uk/Marks-Cain-Tom-Knox/dp/0007342616/ref=ntt_at_ep_dpi_1
!!!
The strikers lose their perks (at least), BA loses a ton of cash, Labour loses (more) credibility and UNITE lose their members’ money, perks and, probably, jobs.
Who wins?
You have to admire David Cameron’s ability to avoid smirking.
214 - We’ll see if this has any effect in the polls, but Camerons association of himself with management styles like Walsh’s is an error.
Having Theresa Villiers fronting it doesn’t help much either.
201 Disraeli. My ARSE has tipped Green leader Caroline Lucas to win Brighton Pavilion.
Sorted !!
215 - I’m hearing rumours that the trip up the mall could come as early as Thursday.
What’s wrong with these unions? They basically have their own bought-and-paid-for party running the government and now they’re seeking to sabotage that self-same party in return for some bargaining leverage? Talk about cutting off your nose to spite your face…
Could BA go bankrupt during the GE campaign?
What sort of effects would that cause?
218.Easterross, I didn’t think you had managed to get there yet. Did you get the email Fitaloon sent you?
167 - Currently 61.8% for A, 32.2% for B!
196
“TAKE A LONG HARD LOOK AT THE TORY PARTY”
We have and we find it infinitly preferable to the current rabble who are in government. By no means ideal but still more worthy of temporary support than the nasty party of Brown and Mandleson.
So please keep up with that slogan. I am sure that it is worth a few fractions of % to the Tories every time it is used.
229 - But if the RMT make the trains knackered at the same time, it really will be an epic fail by the Trades Unions.
Cameron should probably just stand back and reap the rewards.
229. But you told us this strike was a “mantrap” for Cameron, and you suggested the timing of the Tory attack was “terrible”.
Presumably you now admit that both these statements were farcically inaccurate.
Right?
Betfair now have markets up in all constituencies . Seems like no one has noticed . Come on PBers put some money up to back your opinions or put in an emotional hedge . i have been trying to entice some interest in the seats i have some knowledge about but there is not one there ??
229 - tim you are so predictable, next you will be saying that Cameron associating himself with the human race is an error.
182: The vote at Harry’s place is really motoring now - at least for the A) camp. The scores on the doors:
a) 109
b) still stuck at 66
You don’t suppose Osborne has logged on?
231.James, you are the second person to mention rumours of trip up the Mall for Brown on Thursday next week on PB.com today.
227. I’d prefer a hardback Sean, but good luck. Hope you sell a million.
Last time Labour lost power, in 1979, we had the following
1) A PM elected only by the Labour party
2) The government was running out of other peoples money
3) Trades unions buggering up the economy.
Any other similarities?
What is that old saying? History repeats itself, first as tragedy, then as a farce?
230 - Jack W.
The Lib Dem seats markets are showing the sign of some serious cash going on in strange high end high roller last gasp, post Beckett losses, Alamo redoubt splurge.
I have an ID parade and it only has one man with a tartan rug over his knees in it.
Are you fingered?
232 - The problem for Labour is that the unions are led by throwbacks to an earlier age where being a moron and leading really BIG strikes was a sign of machismo.
Look at the size of my picket, phwoar.
234 Christina yes thanks for both links
240 - “next you will be saying that Cameron associating himself with the human race is an error” - when did this happen?
242 - If he calls the election next Thursday for May 5 that would be a really long campaign.
A really long campaign of equal(ish) treatment of the main parties.
Gordy v Cameron every day.
Another great decision by Gordon Brown!
235167 - Currently 61.8% for A, 32.2% for B!
by MB March 19th, 2010 at 10:18 pm
Its hard not to laugh really. Perhaps we all need to vote
183
251 - Cryptic..!
248.Nick, I sincerely hope your post is some sort of attempt at a joke.
Sean,
I thought I said “has Cameron walked into a man trap”, but you seem to be following closely, oddly you also claim I said Brown would resign if he won the election.
248 - Oooh biting, Nick.
Papers:
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/UK-News/Saturdays-Papers—Newspaper-Front-Pages-For-Saturday-March-20-2010/Media-Gallery/201003315577687?lpos=UK_News_Left_Promo_Region_0&lid=GALLERY_15577687_Saturdays_Papers_-_Newspaper_Front_Pages_For_Saturday_March_20,_2010
242 - Well it is exactly 6 weeks before the election so that could be where the rumours are coming from. Major announced the 97 election on 17th March for 1st May so timescales would be similar. The problem with announcing on Thursday is that the budget is on Wednesday so you then have to have some form of sitting the next week which was supposedly recess if nothing else to get the budget passed. In fact the budget is so late now that timetable looks horrific for a May 6th election. I suspect that a lot of bills are going to have to fall by the wayside.
251.SallyC, you were saying?
Number of BNP candidates rising all the time 33 in the east Mids now
257.James, I must admit that I wondered about the timing so soon after the budget, why even bother to stand up and deliver one if you are going to dissolve Parliament the next day?
1) A PM elected only by the Labour party
2) The government was running out of other peoples money
3) Trades unions buggering up the economy.
Any other similarities?
A Tory leader without testes?
(Europe, Ashcroft,Policy)
journodave
Anne Moffat loses the backing of Labour in East Lothian and plans to appeal, but sources say her replacement is being lined up.
journodave
Glen Campbell does a piece to camera from East Lothian as a girl walks behind him and gives the camera the finger. Get it tae youtube.
245 Tim. My ARSE has never been “fingered” …. knowingly !!
246- Re: rail/airline strikes on election eve, this is the sort of stuff that should NEVER happen to a party that has its act together. All of the insider nonsense that’s been argued about endlessly here at PB recently hasn’t impressed me one way or the other, but this sounds like the sort of explosive stuff that could amount to pure, unadulterated suicide for the Labour Party, just as it looked they might be able to pull out a stunning victory in this election. This is about the most ridiculous, foolish thing I’ve ever seen a party intentionally do to itself just before an election (and, yes, I’m treating the Labour Party and the unions as one and the same for practical purposes).
The sooner Brown goes up the Mall the better, IMO. Lets get this phony war over once and for all.
263 - Then you’re missing out on a lot of fun Jack.
233. BA won’t go bust. It has £2 billion in the bank, strikes cost at most £20 million a day.
BA’s sharprice has been going up - those who bet on markets see management winning.
I guess that is even worse for Brown, as then he is funded by losers?
Marks of Cain
why is the release timed for after Easter ?
I will have to take something else to my desert island
I hear those swedish ” girl with a dragon tattoo and follow ups ” are quite riveting
233. BA won’t go bust. It has £2 billion in the bank, strikes cost at most £20 million a day.
BA’s shareprice has been going up - those who bet on markets see management winning.
I guess that is even worse for Brown, as then he is funded by losers?
266 Scream. I’m sure you make a good fist of it !!
269 - Thank you for that.
254. Keeping track of your various stupidities, inanities, absurdities and wankinesses is quite a task, tim.
Nonetheless your claim that Cameron had “walked into a mantrap” by “opposing a strike which would not happen” - a strike which has nevertheless happened - is quite specially misdirected, even by yr standards.
263.
Jack, you and your ARSE will show up for Round 2 of French regional election? ARSE may have a say on Champagne-Ardenne…
263 - Under anaesthetic?
Come on you old bastard, these Lib Dem markets make no sense without a man on his last trip around the sheltered housing quarter of Las Vegas on a spree.
Now Cough Sir.
Guardian CiF - latest weekly update of from Malcolm Tucker.
Core strategy? Trust me. I will be unobtrusive
269 - And he was acclaimed to the throne by soon to be losers too.
Actually, so many of them are quitters, rather than losers.
272 - Confusing a rhetorical question with a statement of fact is similar to the idiots on here who confuse recommending a long odds bet with a prediction..
270 - I was just about to post the most shocking thing ever on pb.com in reply to that Jack, but fortunately my self censoring kicked in.
260 - In 1992 Budget was March 10, and dissolution was March 11 so it has bee done.
re Tristram Hunt: he was on my corridor in my first year at University.
I wouldn’t vote for him.
Another of my college contempories was Kwasi Kwarteng.
I would vote for him.
O/T It’s good to have Jack W’s bet of the day included with his daily ARSE forecast of GE Seats for each of the major parties. Today he selected as his best bet The LibDems at 8/11 (0.72/1) on offer from Ladbrokes to hold Colchester - I can’t argue with that for value, but were they ever that price? Laddies currently have them at 4/9(0.44/1), which would be a huge reduction in just a few hours. Currently the best price available is 4/7(0.57/1)from Paddy Power, which is OK but not exactly stand out.
The daily feature on his favourite Scotch Whiskies is first rate.
TAKE A LONG HARD LOOK AT THE TORY PARTY.
by jojo March 19th, 2010 at 10:04 pm
I have looked at Labour for 13 long years
They deserve to lose and lose badly.
274. Andrea. Whilst fully in support of the Auld Alliance I’m afraid L’Ecosse-Francais ARSE will have to remain dormant.
Don’t you think I have enough to do with the British general election and also fending off unsuitable chaps for your Colchester snogfest ??
What on earth are Labour doing in East Lothian?
It sounds about a million times worse than anything the Turnip Taliban ever did…
279.James, I didn’t know that, interesting comparison too. Do you remember how they dealt with that scenario at the time?
Apparently cameron is doing a speech tomorrow. I hope he announces some new, sensible strike guidelines and challenges gordon to accept them!
Id go for something like:
-Length and number of strike days must be announced before balloting of members
-First strike must be no longer then 48hrs and at least 7 days warning must be given
-Second strike must not commence within 7 days of the previous strike in order to allow for negotiations.
-Any new package put forward by the management must be revoted on my all members and not rejected by the union representatives.
These would be very sensible proposals and acceptable to the public. Of course the unions would not agree to them hence the difficulty it would put brown in.
I know the Mirror is known as a bit of a left wing comic, but it seems they are going for the toddler market these days….
http://news.sky.com/sky-news/content/StaticFile/jpg/2010/Mar/Week3/15577711.jpg
“121 - William Hague will remain popular with straight down the line right wing voters indefinitely”
What about ones who aren’t completely stupid or even ones who remember how he performed as leader?
231 ” I’m hearing rumours that the trip up the mall could come as early as Thursday.”
Someone posted something similar on last thread.
come on Labour, lets be having you.
280 - I’d vote for Kwasi Kwarteng, but I’m buggered if I’m moving to Surrey.
I know people have died for the vote but Surrey is worse than that.
285 - I’m afraid school intervened with following politics too closely, I was 11 at the time.
291.James
279 - But that is because Major (rightly) thought a long campaign by Kinnock would be a vote loser. And he wanted to get round the country on his soapbox.
Can you see Brown touring the country to meet the people and being a massive hit? No, but you can see Cameron doing it.
So the long campaign would be a ridiculously stupid idea from Brown.
Or very courageous, as Sir Humphrey would say.
290. Ah, the disdain for the petit-bourgeois, from the un-peu-plus-grand-bourgeois…
217 tim. The last time I had to “cough” with my ARSE in full regalia I had a rather fetching lady doc holding the old tackle !!
As to the rest of your enquiry …. “Well you might think so ….”
288 - Hague made one or two minor errors in his leadership, the biggest error though was winning it. At the end of the day 2001 was always going to be a hopeless battle.
253 _ “248.Nick, I sincerely hope your post is some sort of attempt at a joke.”
Me too, but typical of the nasty party.
292 - Indeed, and even at that age following politics was more interesting than anything else I was required to do.
Wonder what the latest odds are on Labour losing East Lothian?
288 - He’ll be like a mobile Tutankhamun exhibition for the golf clubs and Conservative clubs.
Peaked in his teens, owes his reputation to an early political death and had a close word association with Mummy.
299 -1/3
301 - to hold.
Oh dear Prescott fils has failed to be selected in Weaver Vale.
The BNP will be standing over 300-400 candidates. 200 have been officially announced so far, but a great many more will not be announced until nearer the election.
288 - At the risk of sounding as though I am trying to rival your anecdotage, I had lunch today with a colleague who seriously put to me the proposition that if the Tories were currently led by William Hague, they would be streets ahead of Labour. He was most put out when I suggested that in that hypothetical situation they would be behind in the polls.
ON TOPIC
32 and 226
I suspect that we can’t safely generalise about the impact of the minor parties in different seats. It’s possible that the BNP may be attracting the sort of support that “Mr Jones” sees in his constituency and that Nick Palmer describes in Broxtowe.
In Copeland, UKIP mostly took tory votes in 2005 but we’re not detecting signs of losing any further votes to UKIP this time: I think it’s possible, however, that UKIP may pick up a few more disillusioned Labour voters, mostly those were annoyed at Labour’s broken promises on Lisbon but who won’t vote Tory because they see that as class treason, or BNP because they’ve worked out what that party is.
Everyone I have spoken to about the BNP voters here thinks that about half of them are people who would otherwise not have voted while the great majority of the rest are former Labour voters. Their strongest performances in last year’s council elections were in safe Labour wards, and the Conservative shares in those wards were steady or somewhat improved.
Nick has a point that some of the BNP ex-Labour voters might otherwise have come all the way over to the Conservatives. However, my impression is that they are mostly the kind of WWC voter who has the peculiar idea that voting Conservative is class treachery but voting BNP isn’t.
Whats this in the Telegraph?
“Nightmare for Brown”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/travelnews/7482470/Air-and-rail-strikes-threaten-travel-plans-and-Labour-hopes.html
“The prospect of union action causing inconvenience and uncertainty for voters is causing alarm at the top of the Government. Senior ministers are afraid that voters will punish Labour for the strikes at the general election, planned for May 6.
Some minister fear a “nightmare scenario” where Mr Brown has to seek a dissolution of Parliament and begin the election campaign against a background of continuing industrial action.
Unite has given more than £11 million to Labour since 2007 and has links to more than 160 Labour ministers, MPs and candidates.
The Conservatives have highlighted those links, accusing Mr Brown of failing to stop the BA strike because Labour is “in hock” to Unite.”
oh, just for smearleader
“A senior Cabinet minister told The Daily Telegraph last night that the issue would hurt Labour much more than a recent row over Lord Ashcroft’s tax status damages the Conservatives.”
We all know how this ends don’t we?
bye bye Labour
Wonder who the “senior Cabinet minister” was? Mandy….
re299
SNP at 3/1 to take seat!
307. But how can this be??
Arch-labourite *tim* has already told us that Cameron was “walking into a mantrap” on the strike-that-would-never-happen, and that the Tory timing of their UNITE attack was “terrible”.
???
Chris.
My dog said that. It put its paw on the keyboard whilst I was typing.
305. Hague is marmite.
I see that no one has taken yet my offers regarding potential candidates…
–Romney
–Huckabee
–Ron Paul
–Palin
…to win the Republican Nomination for President.
Now, I’m willing to offer better odds than the previous ones. I’m very confident that none of them will get it.
Any b1dder?
Guardian - BA declares war on Union after talks fail.
Telegraph - Held to ransom by the Unions.
test
311.SallyC, its normally my cats that either walk across the keyboard or sit on it when they want to tell me something.
I see that no one has taken yet my offers regarding potential candidates…
–Romney
–Huckabee
–Ron Paul
–Palin
…to win the Republican Nomination for President.
Now, I’m willing to offer better 0dds than the previous ones. I’m very confident that none of them will get it.
297 Floater. NPMP’s real nature and his job on here as a Labour functionary has been obvious for years.He is now becoming rather more shrill and unpleasant as at last more posters can see through his carefully constructed facade and unemployment beckons.As you perhaps know, and as he has told us on a number of occasions, he can be obnoxious in six languages.
196 “TAKE A LONG HARD LOOK AT THE TORY PARTY.”
See! It is not Labour!
Mike or whoever,
Would you be so kind as to free one of my “Republican Candidates” comments from the moderation trap, please?
315 My ‘m’ and my ‘j’ aren’t up to much anymore.
307.Telegraph - “The Public and Commercial Services union has also announced that more than 200,000 civil servants, benefits staff, immigration staff and court officials will strike on March 24, when Alistair Darling, the Chancellor, delivers his pre-election Budget.”
That is going to be very embarrassing for Brown and Darling, not going to look good the day before Brown went up the Mall either if that was what he was planning.
Now my comments “in moderation” are gone…
Who’s moderating, actually?
These sort of things are why William Hague remains popular with the Tory rank and file
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l6Cj1b-rp1E
http://the-daily-politics.blogspot.com/2009/06/dissolution-of-parliament-hague-on.html
SNP at 3/1 to take seat!
PaddyPower go 7/2.
323 - antifrank says it’s wasted money.
Philippe: I’ve pulled it out of moderation.
312 - I am rather disoriented. My mother, and now the colleague who I most respect, both out themselves as Hagueites.
326 — Many thanks, Robert!
Labour’s online war does not go well…
http://www.furlongpr.com/liberal-democrats-overtake-labour-on-facebook
325 - Always listen to Antifrank.
This man moves markets.
SeanT - Here’s the difference, I hope you understand.
Eddie Izzard is 100/1 to be next London Mayor.
That is a good bet.
However.
Boris Johnson is more likely than Eddie Izzard likely to be next London Mayor but he isn’t a good bet at odds on.
312 - Hague is marmite.
Yep, in a jar on a shelf at the back of the cupboard now.
327 - Don’t worry antifrank, my most respected colleague at work outed himself recently as
1) A Lib Dem
2) A huge supporter of the leadership of Nick Clegg
224 Mark Senior. “Caroline Lucas has the Big Mo and in my opinion will not only win but win with a 4-5,000 majority .”
That IS interesting. Thanks for the info.
327 - antifrank. They are not alone. This is from the Nick Robinson taking the pulse series:
“Still others liked their fellow Northerner William Hague, and would vote for him if he were leader, but don’t warm to David Cameron.”
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/nickrobinson/2010/02/taking_the_puls.html
330 - I don’t think so. But since the SNP were in fourth in East Lothian at the last election, visions of the SNP taking the seat are a little fanciful.
331 - tim, no matter how crap you regard William Hague as being, there is one thing we all can agree on – Gordon Brown is infinitely worse.
Your problem is that it’s Gordon standing for re-election and not Hague.
331. You were embarrassingly wrong. Just admit it, and stop diverting.
Tit.
332 - The first is surprising. The second is inexplicable.
331 - I’m at least as likely to be London Mayor as Eddie Izzard is. I’ll even offer you 100/1 on my own chances.
Philippe:
I completely agree with your Republican candidate analysis.
Palin - however popular she was with the rank and file - is erratic and unlikely to appeal to the broad centre. She also has more skeletons than the average graveyard.
Romney was boring *and* a Mormon. All the money in the world couldn’t buy him the nomination last time. 2012 is unlikely to be any different.
Huckabee was excellent entertainment and a stout campaigner. But it’s not clear how broad his appeal is either.
So - who could be the Republican candidate?
Petreus? Perhaps a little too liberal.
Pawlenty? Has tacked right sharply, and yet is Governor of liberal Minnesota. Quite impressive in his own way.
Rick Perry says he’s not interested… but he’d be a pretty good candidate.
Mark Sanford’s affair probably rules him out.
I think we’ll see a Governor or former Governor as candidate.
RE324
Ta for the info Scott, I had only consulted Ladbrokes earlier in the evening!
335 - Apart from Alastair Darlings seat, I’ve studiously avoided betting in Scottish Constituency Markets.
IIRC isn’t the local council an SNP run council?
If anyone wants to bet that William Hague will be next leader of the Tory Party the best odds are 5/1.
I’ll offer any takers 6/1, money to be lodged with PtP.
338 - I think reason 2) Is solely based on Nick Clegg’s support of the Gurkhas
Eddie Izzard used to be funny. I used to go and see him at the Comedy Store, “Le singe est dans l’arbre!”…ho-ho, so funny.
He used to be funny. Now he is a bad comedian in bad make up and an even worse dress.
I am not sure how Labour’s African, West Indian and Muslim voters will react to a transvestite mayor. Perhaps they will take a shine to him.
Or perhaps Mr Izzards attempts at politics will be as unconvincing at his attempts at acting - and his acting really is poor.
342 - Perhaps Mark Senior or Rod Crosby could tell us the last time that a candidate took a seat where his/her party was fourth at the previous general election. I’d expect odds of better than 7/2 on the prospect.
345 - That’s very unfair. It’s good make-up.
35 antifrank
I’d still guess that Labour will win East Lothian, but it really makes little sense to judge by 2005 data in Scotland. 2007 was a significant factor, and Scottish politics is different in a very real sense in voters willingness to switch parties.
Bobby Jindal? Probably too young. And too not white.
That said Jindal versus Obama would be an interesting one.
re342
Could not tell you1 I did not like the odds offered, thought they were a bit stingy for what should be safe Labour Territory, the kind of place where you stick a red rosette on a monkey and they would vote Labour!
348 - We shall see. I firmly expect the SNP to come out of the 2010 election very disappointed. I do not rule out the possibility that the SNP will have fewer seats than it went in with.
I think for East Lothian we need to know who the new candidate will be. Will it be another AWS, or will Unite try and parachute their candidate in? Perhaps not after this weekend. How about another of Mandy’s posh friends? In East Lothian… Maybe not.
Looks like Joanne Cash has done an interview with tomorrows Guardian.
342 TSE
East Lothian Council has had a coalition SNP / Scottish Liberal Democrat Administration since 2007. The current make up of the Council is: 9 Scottish National Party; 7 Scottish Labour; 4 Scottish Liberal Democrat; 2 Scottish Conservative; and 1 Independent.
346 - Plaid Cymru came from 4th place to take Ceredigion and Pembroke North in 1992.
349 - Jindal as VP on a Romney (or Petraeus) ticket is feasible.
Nice balance of race,region, religion and right/liberal.
Vote for Change - Scottish Conservatives
355 - This is what I love about this site. You can ask an obscure question and get an instant answer! Many thanks.
351 antifrank
And I do not rule out the possibility that any party in Scotland will have fewer seats than it went in with - or that the seat allocation remains unchanged!
Without decent polling there is no way to know.
354 - Thank you OldNat.
re351
I suspect that the SNP will do quite well! It wont be winning in East Lothian though! I am just looking for interesting bets in places where a surprise might occur and that I can get decent odds! Everything tells me that the Lid Dems are the ones in for one very sore night at the GE in Scotland!
357 - I had to turn it off.
David Cameron appears to be masturbating behind Annabels back.
David Cameron will today pledge that a Tory government will introduce a new tax on the banks, even if other countries don’t move ahead with such a tax.
That marks a difference between the Tory position on a bank tax and the government’s, in that the Chancellor will confirm in the budget next week that he is in favour of such a tax, but only if there is an international agreement to levy one.
However the difference between the Tories and Labour is less wide than it may appear - for two reasons.
First that with the US and Sweden having already announced such a levy, international agreement on such a tax looks much more likely than it did.
According to a senior source, the Tories have had “conversations abroad in the past week” which have convinced the Tory leader and the shadow chancellor George Osborne that they would be in “good international company” if they were to launch such a tax.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/robertpeston/2010/03/cameron_tories_would_tax_the_b.html
335 antifrank
That is the same conclusion I came to on looking at the 2005 Westminster results. But with the Lib Dems showing a massive decline in polls - they can’t be both increasing their share in the Central Belt AND saving their incumbencies in the Highlands - and with the Tories focussing all their resources on known targets, this makes the SNP the default challenger.
oldnat then confirmed this by posting the 2007 Holyrood results, where the SNP was second and ran Labour close. The only doubt being that East Lothian is Iain Gray’s Holyrood seat and the bout may have become a bit of a needle match, inflating the SNP’s true support.
So to conclude I think Shadsy’s 3/1 for the SNP looks good. It is one of my very few (so far) Scottish bets.
Given Obama’s troubles there is likely to be someone emerging from the GOP ranks who hasn’t gone around before.
Huckabee though still looks the one betting proposition. His profile is higher. He’s popular enough, likely to stand and could well win states, including early ones. If the last time is any guide then early results swing betting massively when really they shouldn’t.
Jack W is your ARSE having the weekend off like You Gov or will we be treated to its outpourings tomorrow as usual?
362.Here you go again, you really are a disgusting creep!!
Can anyone confirm what notice is required to rechedule the May 6th local elections? I seem to recall looking it up a couple of weeks ago and it was 6 weeks, but cannot find a link to it now.
352 Surely the key question re East Lothian is whether Ms Moffat will stand as an independent, assuming the deselection doesn’t get cancelled on appeal.
364 - There are two schools of thought: whether to look at 2005 or whether to look at 2007. I’m firmly in the first. I regard 2007 as being a bit - but not a lot - more interesting than local election results. I would want odds of 15/1 before I thought about betting on the SNP in East Lothian, and even then I’d not think it was a particular bargain.
364 - Seth.
The SNP are far less likely to win East Lothian than Labour are to win Inverness or Na h-Eileanan an lar, and you’ll get much better odds on the latter.
369 Richard Nabavi
Given Little Miss Moffat’s prediliction for claiming expenses, is there a difference in the HoC payouts for an MP deselected, as opposed to one who is defeated?
I’ve just spotted that Ladbrokes now offer 10/1 against a Lib Dem being in the first cabinet formed after the election. I can’t say I’m enthused by that.
Shadsy also is now in to 7/1 on there being two or more elections in 2010.
365. My sources tell me Huckabee isn’t making any effort to lay the groundwork for a run.
People are underestimating Palin’s support - however awful her screw-ups become, most would still follow her.
As for Romney, he would have won last time if it hadn’t been for McCain. The base still doesn’t trust him, but they aren’t as outright hostile to him as they were last time around. His fundraising and infrastructure are unbelievable this time round. Plus, I wouldn’t be surprised if Gingrich throws his weight behind him. There’s also the fact that he has little competition for moderates (who also won’t be crossing over to vote in the Democratic primaries), while the right-wing vote could easily be split.
Jindal and Pawlenty are utterly lacking in charisma. They look good on paper but won’t survive any campaign.
Paul’s ridiculous for obvious reasons.
There’s several conservatives that are reasonable prospects such as Perry or Barbour, but they both have negatives. Thune is the guy that really stands out as a talent to me. Mitch Daniels also looks feasible.
Oh, and I’ll take pretty much any odds that Sanford won’t get it.
367 Cut Tim some slack Christina. Yes, he is a disgusting creep, but he must be having hallucinations by now. His first post to PB was at 5:44 am this morning, and he’s been smearing solidly for 18 hours now.
I just don’t get the mindset of anyone who could do that. It’s frighteningly obsessive.
BTW - did you see in a previous thread that Roger is now claiming that the air in Scotland is “Socialist”. Take care!
373 - OR MORE?
Hells bells.
221. SeanT. Not superstitous then ?
15/4/10 “Marks of Cain ”
15/4/12 Glug Glug !
377 - think of the betting opportunities.
“Brown hopes for Obama bounce from US summit”
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brown-hopes-for-obama-bounce-from-us-summit-1924337.html
I was in the audience at AQ tonight and the atmosphere was utterly dreadful for Balls. Hague had the majority of the audience on side, and Ashcroft resonated far less than Balls being evasive on Lord Paul and, more pertinently, on the Defence figures. If that audience, in central Leeds (not even a Leeds marginal) was anything to go by, then Labour are on for an utter hiding.
378 - Feck that. I’ll flee the country. I love politics, but not that much.
376 - I have to say, since I rented my spare room out to George Osbornes brother I seem to need so little sleep.
360 Richard Nabavi
True. But a lot of damage has already been done to Labour’s cause. Expenses abuse and an unfortunate description of Alex Salmond seemed to have been the original offences by Moffat. This then escalated into the local party being accused of bullying a sick woman (I believe Ms Moffat had a brain tumour). So there may well be a plague on both of you reaction from the electorate even if she doesn’t stand.
I guess if she did decide to stand or won her appeal, the 3/1 on the SNP would disappear quickly.
374. Sarah Palin has a serious shot at the Nom and a decent shot at the Prez.
Don’t let anyone suade you otherwise. She has *it*.
371 tim
Yet again posting without polling evidence! We simply don’t know where the LD vote has declined in Scotland. Is it localised? or overall?
All we know from the polls so far is that Labour are either stable at their 2005 vote, or have declined. LDs have significantly declined and the SNP significantly increased since 2005.
Forced polling choices suggest that most Scots would prefer a Brown government at Westminster as opposed to a Cameron one, but that may well translate into anti-Tory voting rather than pro-Labour in a wide range of constituencies.
Until the election is called, we’ll continue to get political news base on the battle in England. That changes once election rules apply.
Betting on anything in Scotland is unwise at the moment.
re367
He is hallucinating! Confirmed by fact that he believes Labour can win Inverness where the Labour vote has crumbled and the Party organisation is in tatters! Confirmed by my son who lives and works in that part of the world!
Just come in from the Caelidh (a Scottish knees up) at the FSB Conference in Aberdeen.
I don’t know how I would vote in East Lothian if I was a jock but I certainly would consider voting for Salmond.
He was light years ahead of Mandleson (smooth and sinister) and Osborne (careful and boring) at the Conference today. In person he is totally different from his TV image.
This guy is seriously seriously good and for the first time I can see that the Scots didn’t go totally ga ga when they voted him in.
383 Seth - I don’t pretend to understand the full complexities of Scottish politics, but on the 2005 figures the LibDems are in contention.
Or, as a long shot, an ‘Independent Labour’ seems a possibility given the evident lack of full fraternal relations in the local Labour party.
382 Don’t worry tim, you’ll be able to sleep soundly and contentedly once you’ve had the pleasure of seeing Brown humiliated in the General Election.
It will be so sweet for you to see him get his cum-uppance, after the way that he’s treated your Hero Tony Blair all these years.
Labour could have achieved so much. They’ll look back with bitterness at the wasted opportunity.
Betting on anything in Scotland is unwise at the moment.
The value has now gone, but I backed Labour in what are now ” safe” Sottish seats last Autumn and up until a month ago, I’m content with the prices I got.
I’ll offer you 4/1 on the SNP in East Lothian, the bookies will give you 7/2
387 Richard Nabavi
LDs need an 8.7% swing from Labour to take East Lothian. Average of the few Scottish polls suggest that the LDs in Scotland are down 10%+ since 2005, so for the LDs to have a chance there would require something like a 19% swing, against the Scottish pattern!
The East Lothian Courier was talking about local polling showing 38% support fot the SNP(though I don’t know the validity of that figure).
390
Sorry 8.4% swing in E Lothian.
371 tim
You seem to be able to detect a transparency in Scottish politics that eludes most of us other Sassenachs.
On the last occasion East Lothian was discussed, marcia helpfully pointed out that the make-up of the seat had changed in a boundary review losing its rural borders-inclining former Tory vote. That seems to knock the Conservatives out - Easterross concurred with marcia on this. So that leaves the Lib Dems to challenge: a bit of an unknown as they hold Edinburgh East confortably, but they just don’t seem to be gaining anywhere in Scotland at present. So that defaults to the SNP.
I am not saying it is a great bet, but I decided to go ahead on the basis that no one had yet tipped it. A triumph of dogged individualism and a trait that has caused me through life to be a poor gambler.
390 - And the SNP need a 15% swing.
As I said, I’ll offer you 4/1
Oh, and I also wouldn’t surprised if Jim DeMint enters and gets a strong following. The problem for a lot of these conservatives is they’ll struggle for oxygen initially if Palin is in the race. It could very easily shake down to a “serious” conservative, Palin and Romney. And I wouldn’t be surprised if Romney came through the middle.
384. I think you’re right on the nomination, but wrong on the Presidency. She would be a long way short of winning the median voter, and any turnout drive she made on the right would be reflected on the left with their animosity towards her.
One thing people aren’t appreciating right now is there are a lot of blacks and Hispanics that won’t vote in the midterms and aren’t showing up in likely voter models. They will return in 2012 when the Big O is back on the ticket.
389 tim
Since I already said that I expect Labour to win in E Lothian, that would be an unwise bet!
390 - The SNP would need a 14.2% swing to take East Lothian. In doing so, they would need to shoulder past both the Lib Dems and the Tories.
392 - The only way this seat will change hands is if Moffatt stands as an Independent, the Lib Dems are far more likely to benefit from that given there bar chartastic performance at the last election.
The SNP haven’t polled above 16% in this seat yet they are 7/2 and the Lib Dem in the teens.
357. So much of it sounds like traditional Lib Dem leaflet fodder, imitation the greatest flattery?
395 - I said upthread that Labour would hold the seat, but covering options at long odds isn’t a bad move.
396 antifrank
Even if the LDs remained at 24.8% of the poll (which seems unlikely) the SNP need to gain only a 5.9% swing to overtake both LDs and Tories. Given the limited Scottish polling we have, it seems highly likely that the SNP would move into 2nd place.
You simply can’t apply expectations of party behaviours that are valid in England to apply here.
355. (Back in from the pub)
Inverness, N & L in 1997 (Labour) and Ceredigion & PN in 1992 (PC) are the only two instances since the War.
Of course there are also instances of parties winning from “nowhere” too, such as
Bethnal Green & Bow in 2005 (Respect)
Blaenau Gwent in 2005 (BGPV)
Wyre Forest in 2001 (IKHHC)
Tatton in 1997 (Ind.)
Western Isles in 1970 (SNP)
Caithness & Sutherland in 1964 (Liberal)
plus several examples in Northern Ireland
397 tim
Any odds on the SNP beating the LDs in vote share?
379. Is it really a good idea to be jetting off around the world during an election campaign? (Especially with the potential risk of industrial unrest rearing its ugly head).
The whole thing is a bit ‘crisis, what crisis?’
It also allows Cameron to take the initiative and claim that Brown isn’t spending his time meeting and trying to persuade voters on the campaign trail - rather, he’s hiding from them.
Brown shouldn’t do it. Of course, he will, but I strongly suspect it will hurt him.
400. Might end up as a 4 way marginal after that election, that’ll be fun.
401 - I thought Labour were in second place in Inverness in 1992, although I accept the boundary changes may have pushed them into third or fourth place. But I wouldn’t have thought so.
400 oldnat
We batting on the same side. See how constructive a Tory-SNP coalition can be!
404 corporeal
I suspect we’ll have even more of those after this election!
405. Notionally Fourth (R&T)…
406 Seth O. Logue
I don’t mind working with anyone - to increase Scottish autonomy!
402 - Far too early for that.
You may like to ponder why this is happening.
‘Telegraph’ turns on one of its own and a media war is on
One of the more bizarre feuds on the Tory right is between The Daily Telegraph and Nadine Dorries, a backbench MP. There is no ideology in it. Dorries is one of those far right, anti-abortion Tories who would seem to be well on the Telegraph’s wavelength. Yet on Thursday, the national daily had a story barely interesting enough to merit the inside pages of a local newspaper, that Dorries was a friend – even, they hinted, possibly more than a friend – of a local radio presenter running as an independent in Luton South, against Esther Rantzen. This trivia was blasted over the front page, with more inside. Yesterday, the newspaper had another go at Dorries, over her second home. She retaliated on her blog by saying their reporter had been chased out of the village by angry locals. “He stood out like a sore thumb in the biting wind, wearing his city-slicker grey overcoat,” she claimed. This is fun. Let’s hope they never make peace.
Would the 40/1 on the alternatives in Mid Beds (Betfair) be atractive if Nadines “main home” turned out to be made of sugar?
Anne Moffat is such good value. Just look at the number of dramatic stories she is linked to on the BBC.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/edinburgh_and_east/8576018.stm
Brain haemorrhages, vicious beatings, Nazi slurs…
She’s got the LOT.
Anyone got an answer to my question above?
“Is there a difference in the HoC payouts for an MP deselected, as opposed to one who is defeated?”
I hear that a 7th MP is to be dragged before the courts for dodgy expense accountancy, any word on who the latest one is?
412. I believe so yes.
412 oldnat
I think NPMP answered this fairly recently. I will try to find his comment, but provisionally until confirmed, I think he said the payment applied equally to both defeated and retiring MPs. I think he also said it had been a recent change to prevent bed-blocking but that the current recommendations for the future were to bring it down to a 2 month salary pay off.
In most parts of the UK if a female MP had been left unconscious by a gang she’d get some sympathy from her local association but obviously not in East Lothian.
413: Take it with a pinch of salt but http://order-order.com/2010/03/19/met-sends-harry-cohen-file-to-cps/
416 Andy JS
“if a female MP had been left unconscious by a gang she’d get some sympathy from her local association”
If that happened, I’m sure she would have got sympathy there as well! Check the coverage of the story in the East Lothian Courier and the Scotsman.
oldnat
What is your take on Murphys seat!? I regularly do business there and I hear a lot of grumbles about him from guys who who say they will not vote for him again!
Labour’s double whammy:
http://iaindale.blogspot.com/2010/03/labours-double-whammy.html
419 IainM
Lab hold with reduced majority, I’d guess. Tories need a 7% swing to take the seat, but I anticipate enough LDs (18.3% in 2005) will vote Labour to keep the Tories out
419 IainM
2011 - Labour will have difficulty holding on in Eastwood with the boundary changes for the Scottish Parliament. Probable Tory win I think.
410 tim
1. Coward.
2. Nadine Dorries is an accident waiting to happen. Bit like Little Miss Moffat really. But then it makes politics fun.
415 oldnat
Unable to find Nick P’s original comment so my answer remains provisional.
Nick might read the thread and comment himself.
423 Seth
I always like the subtitle of the “SNP Tactical Voting” site -
“Elections - Probably the Best Spectator Sport in the World”
re421/422 oldnat
So you see it as all depending on which way the Lib Dems vote! So there is still an anti tactical Tory vote in Scotland then? Even after all this time, 13 years of Labour misrule!
414 Seth
Thanks anyway.
Things have probably changed since Willie Hamilton moved from Fife Central in 1987 after he was replaced by Henry McLeish. I think he stood for some seat in the South of England where he had no hope, in order to improve his pension.
Socrates, would you like a bet on Romney? I can offer you 4/1 that he won’t be nominated.
Seant, I offer you 8/1 that Palin won’t be nominated.
It’s gonna be a “new” face, fresh blood. Someone who’s in the shadow right now. Someone that Socrates might name sometimes, shyly, at the bottom of a comment, amongst many others.
427 oldnat
Assuming that there is no financial benefit, do you think Anne Moffat will stand as an independent? It looks from her comments to the BBC that she will appeal the local party decision but not stand independently against their new candidate.
I guess this is a seat in which the SNP would have wanted longer notice of Labour’s selection problems.
427. South Hams (later Totnes) against Anthony Steen, losing his deposit…
429 - The SNP have had years notice of Labour’s selection problems. This is by no means a new row. They wanted to get rid of her YONKS ago.
426 IainM
I think you only need to look at the forced vote responses in polls such as the MORI Scottish Public Opinion Monitor from last month
“The UK General Election is likely to result in either a Conservative or Labour government in Westminster.
Regardless of how you intend to vote, which do you think would be best for Scotland, a Conservative government in Westminster, or a Labour Government?”
Preferred, Westminster voting intention
Government, Con, Lab, LD, SNP, Oth
Conservative, 83%, 2%, 20%, 22%, 28%
Labour, 10%, 94%, 65%, 63%, 57%
Both Same, 4% 1%, 5%, 7%, 5%
I doubt that, in England, you would find 17% of Tory voters hostile or indifferent to a Tory Government at Westminster!
Remember that a lot of the “Labour misrule” has been on local English domestic issues - I don’t think that had sunk sufficiently into the Scottish consciousness after only 5 years of devolution. The perception is greater now.
Defence & Foreign Affairs - Lab/Con are identical in policy.
Economy - cut more or less, sooner or later - it’s difficult to see why the Scottish economy would benefit from the Tories.
429 Seth O. Logue
If there’s no financial benefit to her in standing as an independent, I can’t see her doing so. Her career so far hasn’t shown a lot of political principle.
Watch Ceredigion being flashed across the bottom of the screen in 1992, at 55 seconds on this video. The full result is shown at 8 mins, 15 seconds:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zHyb9bzODCg&
432 oldnat
I find those forced preference figures disappointing and alarning.
Setting aside all the union vs independence/autonomy questions, it surprises me that so low a proportion of any western, developed and educated country would not see the benefit of a centre-right approach to economic management.
I guess that it results from a dependence culture in so far as the resources made available to Scotland are determined in London.
If Devo Max means taking full responsibility for one’s own economy then bring it on. The decisions on the level of personal and corporate taxation required just to sustain the status quo would soon concentrate the minds of electors.
This is not meant to be anti-Scottish in any way. There are vast tracts of England that share the same conditions and remoteness from the responsibility of self-government that Scotland faces.
Phillipe, would you be willing to bet some virtual money on Mitch Daniels?
434. The actual declaration was held in pouring rain on a hillside outside a tin-chapel, wasn’t it?
435 Seth O. Logue
Since the policies of the Unionist parties have been designed to produce a dependency culture here, then you shouldn’t be surprised by the consequences.
No self-respecting nation would want that, but since Unionists have been telling us for all these years that we are too small, too poor, too incompetent to run our own affairs, it’s not really surprising that many believe it.
437 - maybe it was!
I’d like to get hold of the ITV 1992 election show because they might have shown declarations which weren’t shown on BBC. Actually I think the first result in Sunderland South was shown on ITV. The BBC didn’t even have cameras there AFAIK.
The main difference between BBC and ITV is that usually BBC wait for the returning officer to give the result whereas ITV try to be faster by getting unofficial results a few minutes before the result is given.
439. I’ll have to have a root around. I think I have it somewhere. Do you want me to mail it to you? Send me your address
rod [at] crosbytitanic [dot] co [dot] uk
428 — Nah. So far, I can only lay the famous old faces of the GOP.
Nytol
438 oldnat
Don’t disagree with you there at all.
The difficulty is in finding the right balance.
Take a former mining town in Northern England. Do you tell its residents that as a result of changes in market demand for fossil fuels and the subsequent closure of their mining industries, they can no longer have a hospital? Or make continued funding for the hospital conditional on the town regenerating its industries and consequent contributions to state provided health care?
Of course not, but as soon as the link between two is broken, a dependency culture arises.
The task of restructuring the economies of the British Isles and of changing the culture and expectations of its inhabitants is massive. But first a majority of the various political units must recognise the need to restructure.
How close does the patient need to get to death before he will agree to take the medicine? And will it all be too late when he does?
oldnat
Ta for the info! It might clarify any bets that I might make in relation to Scotland. A bit of personal info. My son lives in Inverness and commutes everyday to RAF Lossiemouth. My daughter lives in Montrose and presently attends Dundee University(her choice). My mother was Scottish, hence my peculiar interest in what is happenning north of the border! Thus my Scottish first name as well! That and my work takes me north frequently!
weathercock The Greens are just another socialist party with a different colour flag. They follow the labour Party line assiduously. See Caroline Lucas yesterday on QT, and today on AQ.
? Labour? Socialist? Caroline Lucas described herself as having “socilaist principles” on QT. Some people here have described the Green Party as “quasi-Maoist”. Since when does that constitute “following the Labour Party line assiduously”?
miall Bob Spink as Ind UKIP?
That’s ancient history. He’s now the leader of the Save Our Green Belt Party.
antifrank Perhaps Mark Senior or Rod Crosby could tell us the last time that a candidate took a seat where his/her party was fourth at the previous general election.
Er, Ceredigion 1992. 401. Inverness etc. 1992 had Labour in 2nd place, and only in 4th place in the
made upnotional result. For obvious reasons, the “notional” results calculated for a Highland constituency are much less reliable than most places.440 - thanks very much. I might be able to get it on YouTube eventually. I’ll send you an email.
Looks like I probably won’t be voting Tory on May 6th. My local MP has come out very strongly against the new high-speed rail link which I’m in favour of. Got no idea who to support now. Anyway, I don’t think my vote would make much of a difference anyway in this constituency.
Nite all.
@445 Mr Loony - Caroline Lucas was on Straight Talk this week, it’s not up on iplayer yet - it should appear later. IIRC Andrew neil said she was left of the left of the Labour party.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b006m9sc
Interesting article from Matthew Parris:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/matthew_parris/article7069159.ece
If someone had told me Adolf Hitler played cricket during the First World War and even tried to rewrite the rules I wouldn’t have believed them until now:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/ben_macintyre/article7066144.ece
Is there a sinister Labour plot to stop British troops voting in the election?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-1259368/Is-sinister-Labour-plot-stop-British-troops-voting-election.html
I think there’s a petition regarding this on the no10 website. Seems to me like another kick in the teeth for our military.
@449 - Andy have you seen this
http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0011/83585/UKPGE-count-timing-data-2010-03-15.pdf
it was up to date as of 15th march.
I’ve just been reading about the different types of phobias, and have come across one called Decidophobia.
This is the phobia which prevents people from making decisions.
The person coping with Decidophobia has experienced a traumatic, real-life event. That experience is then automatically associated with making decisions.
Perhaps, as a child, the decidophobic individual was never encouraged to make independent decisions that were well thought out. Maybe this person was consistently encouraged to simply go along with the majority or the status quo. Perhaps the person coping with Decidophobia has made unwise decisions that have led to devastating consequences. This individual may have knowledge of someone else making decisions that resulted in severely negative consequences.
Well, i think here we have Gordon Brown.
Let me explain. When he was at school, he played rugby. And on one occassion he got into an awkward tackle, which left him with an injury which cost him the sight in one eye.
According to the description above, a decision made by Gordon Brown on that occassion did have devastating consequences, and as a result has had problems ever since making decisions for fear of another devastating turn of events.
Based on this, i think people should be a little more forgiving of Gordon Brown, and i for one will try and be a little more understanding of his rages and temper.
Nite all.
449. Brilliant!
Specifically, he “advocated the withdrawal of the use of pads. These artificial ‘bolsters’ he dismissed as unmanly and un-German… in the end he also recommended a bigger and harder ball.”
Locker-Lampson was not mocking Hitler. Far from it, he regarded Hitler’s “essential improvements” to the English game as a mark of his greatness. The British MP was the founder of the Sentinels of Empire, a blue-shirted group of rightwingers dedicated to fighting Bolshevism. …
Hitler, it seems clear, was simply unable to comprehend a game as subtle and nuanced as cricket. He wanted speed and violence. Not for him the gentle thwack of leather on willow, but rather the crunch of a harder, larger ball against unprotected shins.
For some reason I have always considered cricket to be a symbolic representation of mediaeval warfare, with the Out team being the besieging army, and the In team being the defenders of the castle. Perhaps Hitler would have preferred the Blitzkrieg method of cricket, with all the fielders throwing balls at the unarmed batsman simultaneously and then battering him to death with cricket bats
At least cricket would be less boring if Hitler’s rules had been introduced. I find paint drying more interesting.
451 - thanks Kristin. I have seen it - actually, it’s not up to date. For example, Bradford announced about a couple of months ago that they were counting on the night and the news appeared in several newspapers in the area, but the electoral commission haven’t included this information in their latest report.
This is the report from 30th January:
http://www.thetelegraphandargus.co.uk/news/4881983.Votes_will_be_counted_on_night_of_election/
454 - cricket’s a game you either love or hate. I used to hate it until I was about 11 years old and then suddenly I became totally obsessed with it for some unknown reason.
@454/456 - I hated it until someone persuaded me to play, I was on a mixed team at a large company I worked for.
one year I was voted catch of the year, unfortunately it was for making a great catch. Great fun.
I am viscerally, passionately and fervently totally indifferent about cricket. I think that when I was at school it was the sport I preferred most (i.e. hated least) (compared with rugby and hockey) due to the fact that I could get away with doing the least activity - fielding just means standing around getting bored, and batting means being in for about one ball before being bowled out. In other words, minimal chance of coming anywhere near the ball or other dangerous projectiles.
458 - it is possible to be indifferent to cricket in the way you describe. But what you don’t often get is someone who says: “I actually like cricket a certain amount, but not hugely”. That happens to be my attitude towards football. I don’t like it that much - especially club/league football - but when the World Cup’s on I don’t mind watching a few matches.
There are UKIP members everywhere. The ENGLISH who love ENGLAND want their country back. To insist that we are merely British; where as they can be proud to be Scottish, Welsh, or Irish; the English have been denied their heritage.
My son came home from school one day and told me that his teacher had admonished him for calling himself English. Yet the Teacher who was a Scot said, in the same lesson that he was proud to be a Scot.
re463 jajames
There are contradictions everywhere Joeseph. My father was English and my mother Scottish! My father was always uncomfortable with the notion of being English and British. Not so my mother who was very proud to be Scottish first and British second! I found the same distictions when I served in the Royal Marines being stationed at Arbroath in Scotland with 45 Commando! Where a great many people saw themselves as Scots first and last and not British at all!
My own father perhaps best summed it up when he said that the big difference between the Scots and the English was not political but cultural, The Scots had a culture and the English didn’t! I have probably stirred up a hornets nest with such a statement!
Brown is detested by many Scots because he is trying to play the Scottish card in Scotland but the British card with southern audiences and it does not wash with either. My own Scottish mother detests the man!
464.The Scots had a culture and the English didn’t! I have probably stirred up a hornets nest with such a statement
Nonsense! The Scots do have their own unique culture. Bagpipes & deep friend mars bars. Still at least you gave the world Bill Mcshakespeaere & Mel Gibson.