Will this ground Labour’s come-back hopes?
March 20th, 2010
Will Cameron be the winner of the BA and rail actions?
Most national strikes have a political dimension and all involving the transport sector do. They impact on millions of voters and how those individuals view the players could determine not just who ‘wins’ or ‘loses’ the strikes but who wins or loses the election too.
The biggest short-term losers in a transport strike are invariably the public, so the blame game becomes all important. Even if aircraft keep flying, there’ll be disruption, uncertainty and worry - and easy pickings for the media covering the story.
Their connection with Unite is probably the biggest danger to the government. Whatever the rights and wrongs of the dispute, it is a Unite strike that’s causing the disruption. Avoiding any collateral PR damage will need some fancy footwork from the government given that Unite provided over a fifth of Labour’s funds last year.
The Conservatives have been playing that link up together with the assertion that it compromises the government in any attempts to resolve the problem. However, they’ll also need to take care at least three counts.
Firstly, there’s a fine line between on the one hand, legitimate comment on the government’s actions and Labour’s financial arrangements and on the other, appearing to seek to gain an advantage out of people’s suffering. Secondly, in attacking Labour and Unite, the Tories need to avoid becoming aligned by default with an intransigent and bellicose BA management. Thirdly, in bringing party funding into the argument, there’s every prospect that the name Ashcroft will re-enter the debate.
With the RMT also getting their members’ approval for strike action (just), the likelihood of even more widespread action in the run-up to or during the election grows greater. Labour’s far less in the firing line there on the union side but the demands on the government to ‘do something’ may well be even more vociferous given the larger number affected. As Network Rail is near-enough nationalised, the government’s unlikely to avoid being caught in the crossfire if the strikes do go ahead.
What of the other political parties? With so many other views for the media to air, they look to be getting squeezed out. If the industrial disputes continue to dominate the news over the next two or three weeks, that could start to hit their poll ratings.
As an aside, if the next BA strike does go ahead, it will probably mean that the Budget will get at most three days’ coverage and be overshadowed in the Sunday newspapers.
Prolonged strikes are always risky for those involved. At least one side is likely to end up a lot worse off at the end and quite possibly all sides. When it affects national transport, the risks are just as big for the politicians. Brown, Woodley, Simpson and Walsh all know this and I suspect are all waiting with the aim of pressuring one of the others to blink first.
David Herdson
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Morning! Does anyone know the latest from the picket line?
First?
First!
Tories need to be constructive in their criticisms. A straight union bashing approach might energise the Labour voters who might otherwise be about to stat at home in droves. There might be mileage in staying out of it, or restricting their UNITE criticisms to calm facts about Labour funding. A contrast with the helpful face of. uNITE at e.g. swindon would be good maybe.
Oh - first
Yay! First with a proper comment
I feel quite smug now. And childish!
Well I would have been had I not bothered with all that comment stuff…
I blame pausing to read the article.
Crazy unions just seem to like
Arranging a disruptive strike
Luckily for BA
Willie’s happy to say
Work or get on yer fookin’ bike
I’m not sure if this one is any good; it’s early and I’m a little hungover. It’s aimed at no-one in particular, just the grammatically deficient in general.
It’s a matter on which I feel quite strong
To “Of them” “Not here” “They are” belong
Three distinct words to use
Seems easy to confuse
Because with their “there” they’re two thirds wrong
4. Yes, Conservatives have to be careful and not give the impression of simply trying to make political capital from the situation.
However, this industrial action, Brown lying at Chilcott, Unite/Charlie Whelan story line, and Tories performing better, have all contibuted to the apparent stalling of Labours advance in the polls.
The narrative seems to have changed and it is Labour that are well and truly on the back foot.
My view is that of all the news stories since the beginning of the year (many hitting the Conservatives), it is Brown lying about funding ‘our boys’ fighting overseas, that will have the most traction and will continue to resonant throughout the campaign proper. Most didn’t believe Labours denials about short changing our troops but their wasn’t a smoking gun. Now with Brown being caught out and having to make an apology of sorts, the charges of being a liar cannot be countered by Labour.
Clearly, there will be more twists and turns to come between now and 6th May, but it seems to me that most of Labours work since the beginning of the year has been undone.
We all owe Charlie Whelan, Unite and the RMT an enormous vote of thanks for turning the Unions back into the Nations Favourite Bogeymen, and making the incoming Tory Government’s job of cutting back the deficit - and ultimately the debt - that much easier!
David an excellent article and as someone about to fly out of Glasgow Airport this morning (thankfully with Emirates no BA)apposie.
I well remember the autumn of 1978 and the drip drip of strikes and even threat of strikes heightened the perception of Union Barons holding their industry bosses to ransom with an important Labour government in their pocket powerless to do anything to stop them.
Scroll forward 31 years and now we have a “super-union” acting like a multinational bully holding BA to ransom and a Labour government which is effectively a majority owned subsidiary of that super-union being powerless to do anything and frankly not wishing to either lest the fudning purse strings be cut off in the next 6 weeks.
The only problem for the union in 2010 is that it is now a super-union because so many potential members have turned their back on the unions that several once giants among the TUC have had to amalgamate to survive.
Hearing that senior BA cabin crew earned to £66,000 last year will not easily help the public to identify with the strikers, many of whom are already considered over pampered trolly dollies by the public anyway.
Willie Walsh has already “sorted out” an airline and its trade union from his Air Lingus days and a couple of years ago one of his former senior managers from those days now a senior manager with another airline told me that the only reason BA had hired Walsh was because he is a known “fixer”.
As with every other major industrial action in the past 30 years this will only end one way. The union will lose, hundreds, if not thousands of BA staff will lose their jobs and hundreds/thousands more will end up working for more realistic pay rates.
As for the electoral effects, David Cameron is already assuming the mantle of Margaret Thatcher and many people will remember fondly how she “tamed” the over powerful union barons. It may lose a few soft votes but I suspect the UKIP wing will come flooding back. If David Cameron plays this well, he will be a big winner and Labour will go from losing the election badly to losing catastrophically. Could 2010 = 1979 +1997 in its effects?
11 Given Cameron’s (IIRC) five questions on it at PMQs this week, I feel the latest from the picket line is a significant issue this morning! Don’t you?
Just because I didn’t bother to read the thread before posting to increase my chances of firstness shouldn’t detract from that
As a Scot I do not think a union official with a clear Glasgow type accent being interviewed on the picket line in London will only emphasise to Middle England and the marginal seat voters the Scottish scroungers/Labour Scottish mafia narrative.
Perhaps the effect is less to make people blame the government as such, and more just to make them feel more pessimistic about the future, and thus receptive to a change of government.
Con Maj into 1.68 on betfair - lowest price for weeks and not a lot of support on the board below the current price.
NOM spread thinned out 2.88-2.98
In a speech later on today David Cameron will invoke the spirit of Margaret Thatcher’s government to continue his attack on striking unions, and increase the pressure on Gordon Brown.
Following the collapse of last ditch talks between Unite and BA, along with the announcement that the RMT will hold the first national railway strike in 16 years, the Conservative leader will accuse Brown of being “feeble” and too willing to give into vested interests.
Speaking in London he will say:
“Margaret Thatcher’s government was defined by taking the side of the people against the powerful, the vested interest – those whose survival depended on keeping things as they were. Take her union reforms.
“She recognised that as long there was a closed shop and no proper ballots, power would lie with the big union barons. They would continue to hold governments to ransom, to drag this country down, and to bully their members.
“So she took them on. She broke the stranglehold of the union barons and gave every worker an equal right and equal say. Vested interests broken – people empowered.”
“Once again, under Gordon Brown the vested interests triumph and the people lose out. And now we see it again with the British Airways strike.
“This threatens the future of one of Britain’s greatest companies along with thousands of jobs. But will the Prime Minister come out in support of those people who would cross the picket line? No – because the Unite union is bankrolling the Labour party.”
http://tory-politico.com/2010/03/cameron-to-invoke-thatcher-to-attack-striking-unions/
Gordon’s pet “Nobel” winner now wants trade tariffs
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/jeremy-warner/7483177/Paul-Krugman-the-Nobel-prize-winner-who-threatens-the-world.html
13/15 sorry folks trying to type on my hotel room bed so several typos. I meant in 13 an impotent Labour Government and in 15 that a Scotish trade union steward speaking from London would emphasise the anti-Scots/anti-Scottish Labour narrative in England, i.e. nice English travellers thwarted by nasty militant Scottish union members plus Geordie/Scouser etc [insert northern English/Scotish accent type] union leaders
#11 Grumpy
I don’t mind Unite using their funds to support a strike or to support the Labour party.
What I strongly object to is my funds (as a taxpayer) being given to Unite by the Labour government and then returned by Unite to the Labour PARTY! I am not a member of Unite and do not wish to contribute one penny to the Labour party. Why don’t the conservatives make the public aware of this fact and really capitalise on the BA situation.
In view of the looming election, it’s worth reminding ourselves of a political party that has a manifesto that will appeal to many of the BA strikers:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LMMSSseKCmM
Is this Walsh’s Murdoch-at-Wapping moment? If so, cabin crew are engaged in a modern Charge of the Trolley Brigade at 30,000 feet, workers who know that changes in the form of lower pay and worse conditions are coming.
If they were steelworkers in post-industrial, consumerist Britain, most people might simply shrug. But with an election approaching, the primary impact is political. “This a getting serious for Labour,” insiders concede.
BA is promising to deliver most of its passengers. But footage of Easter chaos at Heathrow is both cheaper and politically more effective than Cameron’s “we can’t go on like this” posters.
After yesterday’s news that signal staff belonging to the militant RMT transport union have joined maintenance staff in voting for strike action, possibly over Easter too, ministers must have hung their heads in despair.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/mar/20/british-airways-strike-general-election
21..russj .I think the conservatives are trying to get that point across but it is still a very hostile MSM out there, thats why sites such as PB will help.
Voters over a certain age will have felt a nasty chill listening to Cameron yesterday. They’ll remember the Thatcher years. Police with batons bloodied strikers and years of civil and industrial unrest.
This will not only remind them of how much industrial relations have improved under labour but also how they are likely to look under a Cameron government spoiling for a fight.
‘Cameron-No more Mr Nice Guy’ or ‘How To Lose Your USP Without Even Trying’.
Interesting airbrushing of 1979-1997 and the essential surgery that was performed on the near dead economy.
The unnerving question is whether resort to strike action will now become more commonplace in the weeks up to and after the election. This period is particularly attractive to the unions because they can use it obtain the maximum leverage from the threat to withdraw labour as much as the fact. But it is also sensitive for another reason. The economy is struggling to sustain a recovery, and industrial action, as envisaged, runs the risk of knocking us back into recession. Do we really want to succeed? Or are we seriously determined to fail?
http://news.scotsman.com/opinion/Spring-of-discontent-could-send.6167664.jp
The danger for Labour is that it looks out of control of events. There’s no risk in choosing a novice if the experienced captain is clearly unable to steer the ship.
The danger for the Conservatives - an easy one to sidestep but one which they are in danger of falling into - is of looking too gleeful at the prospect of industrial unrest.
The danger for the Lib Dems is that opinion may polarise between the two main parties, leaving them languishing.
This election is looking increasingly like that of 1979.
@22 antifrank March 20th, 2010 at 7:30 am
Thanks for the link, wonderfully non pc.
24 Roger you are looking through those luvvy rose tinted specs of yours. The world extends beyond air kissing at the Cannes Film Festival.
In the real world any employer will tell you that Lanour’s Employment legislation has gone all one way, all increasing rights for employees and imposing restrictions/costs on employers.
Hundreds of thousands of people who have lost their jobs in the recession will not be impressed at pampered trolly dollies in hitherto safe jobs striking when those observing them cannot get jobs. Equally Wednesday’s strike by the Civil Service union will only add to the narrative of public sector workers being protected by a Labour Government which has decimated the private sector with its mismanagement of the economy.
Kenneth Williams at his finest! It makes me laugh every time. Their foray into film-making (Bona Prods) is also well worth a listen if you can find it.
I used to work for an airline and what screwed it up was losing market share after they were hindered from flying.
The cash flow stalled and it tok 2 months before they went belly up. From shared market leader.
I was “close” to the finances on level 23 so watched it dissolve so knew how tightly the airline was leveraged.
When you next buy a ticket will you fly the flag or play safe and buy one on an airline that never strikes, like Emirates or Etihad, and one that is also FAR less likely to be bombed by lunatics if you think about it.
Everyone in the good old union/guaranteed for life club thought after this they still had all their owed money and gratuities, 9 day fortnight deals meant heaps of money owed at the end, but after donkeys years I can assure you my super went 100% down the plughole. They have yet to find it……
The moral is simple, if people get turned off supporting BA they will have enormous issues very quickly, which Unite clearly realise. A 3 day stike can cost millions in future ticket sales, so with a loss of market share less people will need to be employed.
A drop by even 1 or 2% would crucify them, and that is inevitable at least short term.
As a management consultant in the global transport industry, road, sea and air I add, this is a freebie for PB mates and I can assure you I KNOW EXACTLY what the picture is here, so a fight to the death is looming, and if people do not support BA as first preference they will be in huge trouble.
Browns ‘Peoples Bank’ (likened by Ed Milliband to the NHS), ie. cheap and easy money for “the many”, is a new state-run subprime bubble waiting to happen
@30 - I’m listening to some of the other clips just now, hilarious.
24 More voters supported Thatcher than supported the Unions.
It was her legal changes that reduced the number of strikes.
29..Roger PLrobably watches The Cannes Film Festival like the rest of us..on the tely..
24 - Voters of a similar age are just as likely to remember the country being held to ransom by the unions and an ineffectual Labour party unable to oppose them. As then, now.
Sounds like Northern Rock take 2, 120% “Cubes for Chavs” mortgages.
24 Roger
I agree.
Union-bashing is Tory core stuff. Quite divisive. Cameron needs to be very careful with his tone.
I thought he got it wrong at PMQs. Focussing on crossing picket lines rather than Charlie Whelan was an error. However, he made it up by getting “the union interest, not the national interest” and “wholly owned subsidiary of the UNITE union” soundbites in, which were in all the bulletins.
More generally, though, he should very selectively target union bosses, management, and politics - not tar all union workers with the same brush.
‘Nuclear security and proliferation’ is not a topic that is dominating discussion down at The Voters’ Arms, but for Gordon Brown it has suddenly become the number one priority.
The Indy confirms that Our Dear Leader will attend a conference on the very subject on 12 and 13 April. The attraction of this little wheeze is that it takes place in the States and will hosted by, wait for it, Barack Obama
…
Firstly, there is the ‘little local difficulty’ down at the airport, which may continue into April, disrupting the holiday plans of thousands over Easter. It will hardly go down well with the punters when they observe Brown jetting off to see his best mate.
Secondly, let’s have a closer look at the election timetable. The consensus is that Brown will seek a dissolution 6 April. This will be followed by “the wash-up”, allowing parliament to be dissolved on either 9 or 12 April, after which the campaign proper begins. Then, up pops the first of the TV debates that will take place on either 14 or 15 April.
…
assuming Brown does go to have his picture taken with Obama, is our tactical leader going surprise us all and take tea with HMQ earlier than we have assumed, allowing the campaign to start earlier.
http://howarddenton.blogspot.com/2010/03/browns-cheap-stunt-and-dissolution.html
#23 Richard
I think they ought to try a lot harder. The shadow transport minister Villiers has had a few opportunities and failed miserably. I agree with many that the conservatives should not be seen as union bashers, and by sticking to the funding issue wrt taxpayers/Labour/Unite, they would easily achieve this. Something seems to be wrong with the tory PR machinery as they do not take advantage of situations such as this. If they need some help/advice they could not do better than to have a look on PB at the more sensible comments made.
“Their connection with Unite is probably the biggest danger to the government”
I can’t see that at all. It’s easy to have a bogeyMAN not a bogey organization with three million members.
FPT I see that Harry Cohen’s voodoo poll now has 68% supporting big cuts in public spending.
With Cameron invoking Thatcher all this dispute will do is polarise opinion. He will energise committed Conservatives like those on here and committed Labour supporters. The Tories are looking far too eager on this - they are clearly enjoying the strike and relishing the fact there could be more. We have yet to hear Cameron urge both sides to reach an agreement and we have yet to hear Cameron acknowledge the very positive things unions have done to help keep so many companies going over the last couple of years.
Just a few months ago we were all in this togeter. Now the Tories are reverting to type and seeking to create an enemy within.
OMFG Brown is planning on a State Facebook where “every ‘citizen has a state-run webpage to interact with every aspect of government” Hello East Germany!
This idiot must be stopped
34 - 2010, the year that the Conservatives make strikes illegal without a 50% majority of eligible union voters (as opposed to 50% of turnout)?
40..Villiers is not good on the TV or in the HOC, She comes across as very unsure and hesitant.
Will Gordons visit to the states have restricted coverage if he has called the GE.
Does it give him enough prep time for the the Leaders debates.
@44 Flashback March 20th, 2010 at 7:58 am
you mean this..
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article7069240.ece
scary stuff.
45. The PR fans here keep saying that’s the only “legitimate” thing to do…
41. well a bogey team then - one that calls off you business meeting in new york , ruins your family get together over Easter then screws your commute to work on the train.
31 - very interesting redcliffe62. I haven’t flown BA since they tried to stop a Christian employee wearing a cross at work(supported by her little-known MP Vince Cable) as I figured the comnpany’s ethos just wasn’t what I liked; funny how it all adds up when fighting for market share.
43..SO, THE SERIAL LIAR. I think the Tories meant we were all in the crap together.Heve you checked out the lies you published about me.Five times..
29. Easterross. I agree that the strike will have no support and the BA staff are making a very silly error. The question is whether it’ll affect Labour. In that it’ll remind voters how good industrial relations are usually and how pleasant it’s been for the last 13 years having a government looking for cooperation not confrontation.
I was up in Scotland these last few days. It’s such a pleasure to drive somewhere with such quiet roads and nice scenery. What do you know about the prospects for Edinburgh South?
51 - Ahhh, my old chum who threatened me with violence yesterday when he did not like (read understand) the point I was making about BoJo. Good morning - I trust you had an agreeable evening.
52.Roger..One thing I can agree with you, Scotland is a great place to be.I wonder if it could get even bette with total independence.
52 …how pleasant it’s been…
Rather wishful thinking Roger. “I missed by holiday can’t get to work, I am annoyed, but at least the last 13 years offer some consolation”. Can’t see it.
I know SO and tim like their tax being diverted to the Labour party via Unite, and they enjoy everyone elses tax supporting the Labour party without their knowledge, but I think once the majority of taxpayers are made aware of this, Labour will be even more unelectable.
52 - Most people can see that it takes two sides to create a dispute. The Tories are championing Willie Walsh and it is clear why - they have made a mistake that takes some of the pressure off Brown and co. There is something about the Tories at the moment - when they are offered an open goal to shoot at they somehow contrive to miss.
Good Morrow PBers
I’d agree with the broad consensus here. The dangers for Labour are clear but the Tories need to ensure they strike the right tone and aren’t seen as making political capital out of the dispute. They are of course but they can’t be seen to be !!
Meanwhile …. FPT 367. Chris A asked whether my ARSE would be operating at the weekend.
Let me assure PBers it’s a seven day a week operation all the way to election day.
Todate I’ve recommended :
Greens to take Brighton Pavillion, Lib Dems to hold Colchester and Ester Rantzen as a good trading bet.
My single malt election night tipples so far are Royal Lochnagar, Macallan 12 year old and Ardbeg 10year old.
Fridays Polling and Seat Index
Con 39% - 337 .. Lab 30.5% - 220 .. LibDem 19% - 55 .. Others 11.5% - 38.
Con Maj 24. Dave is PM.
56 - Incomprehensible nonsense.
51, 53 Do the world a favour and drop it guys.
53..SO ..If you persist with lies and defamation re the physical violence I will issue a writ and involve OGH..
Very well balanced and perceptive post David. I think that there are more risks for the Tories here than first appear. On Drive yesterday Peter Allan had Theresa Villiers in all kinds of difficulties with a line: “well when would you support a strike?”. “Is your answer to everything not to break the Union?” “Is this not divisive?” She did not handle it well.
The fact is that BA management have been intransigent. They may well feel that after 18 months of negotiation going nowhere they have no choice. That is a matter for the company. The Tories need to be more nuanced in their approach. At the moment they come across as simply anti Union and I don’t think that is a good move. The speech referred to above seems to repeat that error. There must be a section acknowledging the good that Unions can do. Honda is an excellent example of modern working relations. Unite can be criticised for not being in the real world. (In fact I think it is their members in the BA branch who are not and the Union is trying to find a solution.) They should not be criticised solely for exercising their democratically endorsed right to strike to protect their existing contracts.
This will be a disaster for the Government but it will not necessarily be a big plus for the Tories.
60. Seconded.
60-63..
“Ester Rantzen as a good trading bet.” _Jack W [58] If Rantzen gets 5% I would be surprised.
Roger @ 24.
Roger, is that really you?
You’ll have us crying into our laptops.
60-63 ..advce is that SO is probably not a full shilling so ok.
52 Roger, perceived wisdom is that Edinburgh South should be an easy LibDem gain.
HOWEVER:
LibDem support in Scotland is falling like a stone
The sitting MP has stood down so Labour has a blameless candidate, not a trougher or one caught with his trousers down
Frankly if voters decide LibDem is best to oust Labour, LibDem gain
If voters decide LibDem sliding so Tory best to oust Labour then Tory gain
If voters cannot make up their minds and Labour vote doesnt collapse then could be shock Labour hold.
Right now I dont know which scenario it is. I have said for a long time that the Tories will find it easier to take Edinburgh SW than Edinburgh S.
65 Icarus. You’re going to be “surprised” !!
#SO
Luckily most taxpayers will fully comprehend the thieving of their cash by a Labour government. Very few taxpayers want their money being laundered via “modernisation grants” from the Labour government (Brown & Co) to Unite, and back to the Labour party (Brown & Labour Unite MP’s) to be used for electioneering.
BA will sruggle to survive if they do not win, they are one of the most unionised private sector companies. I fly them as little as possible already, much prefering flying KLM, from Bham to the excellent Schipol, or the excellent Virgin.
BA will suffer if they win, die if they lose. They have no choice.
This is the precursor of the public sector strikes inevitable over thenext few years.
61 - Go for it. But I do hope that you have kept the relevant thread.
179 - “The last resort of a braindead dogmatist…repeat the slogan endlessly thereby reducing all thought on the subject..grow up ar*e hole..or better still ..why dont you get out of your very comfy office and come with me to a certain pub in Hereford and you can explain your Hypocracy theory to some of the regulars..”
Given your previous evocation of a lying Brown, dead soldiers and your claims that I saw moral equivalency between what Brown told Chilcott and the scandal facing Boris Johnson in London, what was the purpose of your invitation to come to a pub in Hereford (why Hereford, I wonder) with you to explain my views on hypocrisy?
It would be interesting to see how a court would view that and the idea that one anonymous internet poster could libel another anonymous internet poster.
65 I’ve been advised by someone who’s closely involved in the election campaign that Rantzen is likely to get 3 - 6,000 votes. Other parties’ canvassers are picking up quite a lot of people saying they intend to vote for her.
Personally, I don’t see what the point of her is, but others see things differently.
Now if this week’s polls are correct, and support for Others is rising, she may do even better than that.
69 Luton South actually looks like being one of the most interesting contests of this election.
I think the Conservatives will just about win it (unless there’s a big poll shift to Labour) but I’d expect only a three-figure majority.
73 Sean Fear
But where is her support coming from?
Is it from all parties - or will it disproportionately hit the Tories, or Labour?
Cameron has already made two serious errors.
A gleeful tone while allying himself with Walsh, and letting Villiers front the Tories response - she appears to know nothing about politics alnd is dire at hiding it.
69 By contrast, I’d expect Labour to hold Luton North, unless there’s a big poll shift against them. Kelvin Hopkins came out of the expenses scandal smelling of roses.
72..SO I ahve been nrequested by a couple of posters on here to desist.I have agreed.For your infoand future ref it was the post before last.Hereford, home of a regiment that is taking a lot of hits right now.
73 Sean F. I’m picking up much the same. I had one source in the local Labour party as being utterly dismayed on two counts. Firstly how very badly their returns were and secondly the very strong showing of Rantzen.
75 Probably across the board among older white voters. Clearly, there are lots of people who have fond memories of phallic vegetables, and dogs that say “sausages” when you strangle them.
71. FiS , totally agree, one thing that is certain is the next government will need to sort out the public sector and the unions. We are in the exact same position as when Thatcher came in but it is purely the public sector that is threatening to ruin the country. Since most will not accept the gravy train has stopped , it will be a rough time.
Has to be done and the sooner the better.
BA cabin crew must be idiots given the position of the airline business, how they cannot see this costing thousands more of their jobs and worse terms, once they are defeated is beyond me and the only alternative now is BA bust and all of them out of a job.
66. Good morning Robin. Nice to see you taking an interest again.
Always a sign the blue team are wobbling.
(PS. I hope your hospital isn’t in the one in Staffordshire. I remember it was somewhere near)
93 You’re on a hiding to nothing, when you’ve got a sitting MP who hasn’t dared to show her face in the constituency, for a year. The local paper even offered a prize to anyone who could confirm a sighting of Margaret Moran.
76. So if Cameron has made 2 “serious errors” re the strike I assume you think it will hit Tory support. What’s your take on how Labour will emerge from the strike and indeed how they are handling it?
Just listened to Any Questions. Hague for once stopped playing the polite elder statesman role & went for Ed Balls, beating gim comfortably over unite & defence cuts. This is the Hague that many of his supporters want to see more of, sharp, aggresive, whilst remaining calm & witty.
Balls has no chance of leading Labour, several times spontaneous boo’s from the audience what he was speaking. A back room boy if ever there was one.
This is going to be a good election. Once the politicians stop talking amongst themselves & let the public in, they will see the anger over defence cuts & Afghanistan, broken promises & expenses.
Bring it on!
Andrea said yesterday that Scottish Labour had not yet selected candidates in two Labour-held seats: Rutherglen & WH and East Lothian.
But what about Dundee West?
77 - 92: Ok, let’s forget it.
94,93 Sometimes there is no accounting for the electorate’s taste.
http://www.accidentadvicehelpline.co.uk/esther_tv_advert/
78-92…sorry for the repeats faulty comp.
98 - He has made it much easier for Labour to claim that the Tories are seeking political gain from the dispute and are not actually very interested in seeing it resolved.
99, Balls could lead Labour. He shouldn’t, but that’s a different story.
Watched the beginning of Newsnight, but stopped. Wanted to see what the take on nationwide transport strikes was, but apparently something about the Pope is the big news, so I switched off.
From AQ, the Green Party muppet was just a socialist belonging to Labour circa 1976. Like Caroline Lucas, actually.
97 Sean F. Indeed. What do you make of Nadine’s supposed intervention this week ??
105 Morris Dancer
The editorial judgments on Newsnight yesterday were hopeless.
No debate on strikes? What??
96 Roger.
Wobble? I’m really enjoying this one… I’m almost feeling sorry for your lot. They’re a bit like the lambs I take to the abbatoir - they’re a bit jittery, hope it will be ok but really don’t know the severity of what is about to befall them!
Anyways - whatever happens, the next few weeks will be interesting.
Thankfully my hospital is a long way from Mid-Staffs - in all senses.
104, Brown has claimed the Tories:
1) are pro-unemployment
2) talk Britain down when referring to the economic disaster he has caused
3) are defeatist for pointing out troops didn’t have proper equipment
Labour’s attacks frequently have nothing to do with reality or reason. Labour can hardly get all hot and bothered over Lord Ashcroft, then complain when a much bigger donor to themselves gets in the news for striking and the Tories attack.
Thank you Richard and SO
Ed Milliband posing against a back drop of wind machines reminds me of Camerons day out with the huskies..preposterous.
68. Easterross. Thanks for that. It’s very encouraging. I just discovered that I know the candidate reasonably well. He’s the partner of a relative and by all accounts very well thought of locally so I’m keeping my fingers crossed. It’s surprising how parochial politics seems to be in Scotland. Stuart’s Scottishcentricness (patent pending) is quite understandable.
110 Mike S. I hope you’re noting my tips !! …. I’m told your cellar needs replenishing ?!?
24.
Industrial relationships have not improved under Liebour, they improved because of the legislation Margaret Thatcher brought in, which this government haven’t even attempted to change.
Neil Kinnock was fully behind MT during the Miners’ strike, he just hid behind her skirts and let her take all the flak.
24.
Industrial relationships have not improved under Liebour, they improved because of the legislation Margaret Thatcher brought in, which this government haven’t even attempted to change.
Neil Kinnock was fully behind MT during the Miners’ strike, he just hid behind her skirts and let her take all the flak.
I was caught up in a wildcate strike by BA ground staff in July 2003. It completely ruined my trip.
I have never flown BA since, and never will again.
Ths union has a weak hand — there is plenty of surplus capacity, and travellers have many attractive choices other than BA. An insane decision to strike.
Total demolition job on Browns Lies to Chilcott and Labour in general this morning and there actions regarding soldiers voting in the coming GE. Sruggle as they might the Lies to Chilcott is starting to overwhelm them just as they are attacked by the unions and BA grinds to a halt closely followed by the Rail workers over Easter. Very bad weekend in store for Labour and its going to be absolutely horrific for them over the next few weeks.
“Soldiers on the frontline face the prospect of being unable to vote at the forthcoming General Election. This is a direct result of the Government’s cack-handed and thoughtless system which governs their voting rights”
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-1259368/Is-sinister-Labour-plot-stop-British-troops-voting-election.html?ITO=1708&referrer=yahoo#ixzz0ihjLz6FX
100 Stuart Dickson
Didn’t marcia say that McGovern was standing?
105.If only Balls could lead Labour. David Cameron or Ed Balls for Prime Minister, I think even the LibDem supporters would come off the fence on that one.
65. Nothing wrong with Jack tipping her now if he thinks it’ll make it easier to lay her later.
117, if soldiers don’t get to vote it’ll be an absolute disgrace, and Labour will take a major hit on that.
No helicopters, no equipment, no vote. Labour’s three gifts to the armed forces.
“78-92…sorry for the repeats faulty comp.”
Richard, I doubt your computer is to blame. Your repeats are due to your repressing the Submit Comment button. It sometimes takes awhile for anything to happen. Just give it time.
117..I wonder if Tim has any thoughts on the soldiers voting rights being taken away, they are after all defending democratic voting rights in Afghanistan.
109 - Saying that the Tories are missing open goals is not the same as saying that Labour is getting it right or is not in truble. I fully expect Brown to be destroyed in the debates over this. However, I do think that the Tory line is not going to be a winner for them - evoking Thatcher is a polarising move as is siding with what to may is an intransigent BA management as is seeking to demonise unions. I think, quite fairly, that people will conclude that tis is te reality behind Tory claims to have changed.
Of course, being a fervent admirer of Mrs Thatcher, blindly pro-management in any dispute and anti-union is a pervfectly legitimate political point of view and many are all three of those things. But an awful lot of people are not. They will see in Cameron’s words - as well as the words of many other senior Tories - a party that is itching for a fight; one which caused a lot of damage in many parts of the country back in the 80s and 90s.
108. “They’re a bit like the lambs I take to the abbatoir-they’re a bit jittery…..
Now you have got me weeping into my keyboard!
The problem that I see is that the Tories are scared of making the link to WHY Labour are so dependent on Unite, and why they have to be so careful.
It’s largely about ‘Cash For Honours’. Labour had a price list, and Brown knew it - he used it as a way of dislodging Blair from No10 when he threatened to make it public.
The problem was, that in priming the Met investigation, (as Brown almost certainly did to Bring Blair down), he destroyed the donor base of the Labour Party, and Unison know it. They no longer need to find arcane threats to Brown’s integrity, such as his full knowledge over Cash for Honours. They simply stop the cash flowing before the election and choose a new leader.
112. Should be to Robin at 95.
109 - But if Labour is in the pockets of the unions how is it possible that Mrs T’s legislation has not been repealed?
122.. Thanks Gadfly.my own website has over 40k hits a day and i can’t manage my bloody laptop ..yikes..
106. David. Very good!!
On topic, if the union stuff moves the polls, I could see it losing Labour some support around the edges while firming up the support that remains.
So a bigger Con lead with YouGov, and a smaller one with ICM. (But on its own probably not enough to give us the entertaining spectacle of the people who have been rubbishing YouGov to suddenly start telling us why YouGov is right and ICM is wrong.)
111 Roger
a “noisette d’agneau en persillade” may help dry your tears.
Re: soldiers denied the chance to vote in the election, Im sure the enemy Taliban fighters will be able to arrange themselves a Labour postal vote via “community elders” here in the UK
Banana republic, it’s what Labour do!
110
Blindly being pro-management would be daft.
But given the facts of the case, it’s hard to see why there isn’t some kind of UNITE-led resolution along the lines of the pragmatic one wthey co-operated in at Honda, as you rightly pointed out.
Digging their heels in to defend what are by far the industry’s highest wages is just suicidal.
Is thinking that £56K for a purser is far too much “blindly pro-management”?
114 SO
two words : Tony Blair.
The question really should be what is the point of a Union if they have done nothing in the last 13 years to advance their members interests. Set aside the few baubles they have been given and the picture on pensions, destruction of industry, immigration and offshoring and union membership is like paying for your own demise.
120 - Well you do have to ask yourself why a union that has successfully managed negotiations on reduced hours and wage feezes with a number of other big employers cannot seem to do it with BA. A quick look at Willie Walsh’s track record may well provide a decent clue.
Re 103 “This is a direct result of the Government’s cack-handed and thoughtless system which governs their voting rights”
Peter Oborne won’t commit as to whether this is cock-up or conspiracy but it’s pretty obvious isn’t it?
A government that deprives fighting troops of vital equipment that may save lives isn’t going to go all-out to ensure the same troops can vote, is it?
BA needs to have a fight. The company needs to win. In an era when airlines are going out of business all over Europe, BA still operates as though it was in the public sector. Higher prices, higher wages & preferencial treatment at Heathrow over their rivals.
Finally the management have seen their chance, boy are they taking it.
123, I think Cameron should use some questions before the GE (at PMQs) on the issue, as well as strikes, obviously.
122 SO
maybe the other companies aren’t in such dire straits as BA. Maybe if they are in manufacturing their workers are more flexible at keep their jobs.
121 - If you are unfairly/illegally treated or threatened in some way at work - and it happens to a lot of people - having a union behind you, the resources it has, the advice it can offer and so on is incredibly helpful. And let’s not forget the incredibly positive role the unions have played in helping to safeguard companies and jobs in many industries over the last two years or so.
There is no obligation to join a union but millions of people still do. If they did not think they were getting value they would just stop. Which is why the Tories are so keen on curbing union rights.
118. LOL!! That’s Tory thinking!
Labour supporters eat mutton!!
126 - Or maybe the managements were more conciliatory and were not looking for a fight.
92 Hard to say. The headlines in the Telegraph weren’t really backed up by the content of the story. The Barclay brothers loathe Nadine, and I think that’s what lies behind it.
122..You may know the answer to this SO, as you seem to have the inside info..Did the Government hand out cash sweeteners/guarantees to those companies that successfully negotiated with UNITE.I dont think they are allowed to do that with an international airline, but I could be wrong.
41 - Roger ““Their connection with Unite is probably the biggest danger to the government” - I can’t see that at all. It’s easy to have a bogeyMAN not a bogey organization with three million members”
It’s not the organisation that’s the bogey, still less the membership at large (in fact, the staff in dispute don’t seem to have the support of many of their colleagues at BA, never mind other workers in Unite). For Labour, it’s Unite’s cash which presents the problem.
You’re quite right about the PR of it. Were anyone seeking to demonise one of the parties, it’s far easier to go for an individual than an organisation. To that extent, it makes life a bit easier for the government. However, their weakness - well acknowledged - is that Labour’s hugely dependent on union funding and on Unite funding in particular.
The issues of the specific strike do matter politically but how the political parties come out of it depends (1) on how they’re seen to side with (a) the union, (b) the management and (c) the travelling public, and (2) to the extent to which they do side with the management or union, how public opinion splits in terms of sympathy for these respective cases.
127 SO
I have seen precious little evidence of UK Unions safeguarding jobs. LDV, Peugeot, Cadbury, what did they do ? Damn all.
Their leadership is so caught up in mainstream politics they have forgotten the purpose of a union is to represent it members. The funding provided by Unions to Labour is simply robbing members to keep the union elite on a grandstanding ego trip. It has done nothing for ordinary people.
http://www.pinknews.co.uk/2010/03/19/second-poll-shows-young-gay-people-heading-to-the-tories/
O/T but is support for the BNP really so high among gay voters?
The unions disgust me. Revelling in the picture of grounded planes and the misery of passengers.
Alanbrooke @133: “Their leadership is so caught up in mainstream politics they have forgotten the purpose of a union is to represent it members.”
That’ll be it, a cunning and devious plan to help Labour by… going on strike over a bank holiday weekend a few months before the general election.
There’s a fourth risk for Cameron. If this dispute is resolved and it will be then if Cameron has identified brown closely with the problem then he can legitimately claim association with the solution. The narrative could emerge thus ” Gordon, saviour of the nations holidays, BA and jobs. Labour is uniquely placed to negotiate because of it’s historic links with the trade union movement unlike the other main parties”. Under these circumstances brown might relish involvement in the dispute. The closer to a solution we get the more you will see and hear of browns involvement.
lucymanning
Early start for david cameron in putney . .his message so far margaret thatcher took on vested interests on unlike PM
“BA still operates as though it was in the public sector.”
Too true. They continue to offer a ridiculous number of pay grades for a private company. I can’t recall the exact figure, but it’s in the region of 20.
Over the past few weeks Labour have set the agenda, put the Tories on the back foot and, more importantly, improved their share of the vote. Meanwhile, Cameron, has stumbled and mumbled through various U-turns, while failing to prove that he is the Prime Minster-in-waiting. That may all change now.
Brown may have calculated that BA’s heavy handed tactics will win the day and the strike will collapse. If that is the case, it has been a hare-brained risk to have taken and an error of judgement on his part.
Gordon Brown has to cut through the internal politics within the Labour movement and turn his attention to solving this strike without delay. If he doesn’t, it will derail all the carefully worked out plans for the next few weeks.
It is about time that Brown and Mandelson demonstrated leadership and solve this dispute.
http://howarddenton.blogspot.com/2010/03/ba-strike-brown-has-to-show-leadership.html
137: If that was the case, Brown’s already failed, because the strikes happened. If they sort it out now, it’ll still be too late for passengers.
127..SO .I am a conservative leaning voter.I was also a union rep for the NUM, ACCT,and Bectu..Unions can be a force for good but in the wrong hands can be very disruptive and it is very easy for control to pass into the wrong hands.Quite often major Unions have been run by individuals who had a grudge against the current govt, regardless of political colour, and they would use the might of the union for their own ends.I have seen it, been affected by it and also been involved.I do not as a conservative want to see the demise of any union.There has to be a collective group to negotiate on behalf of any workforce.
lucymanning
Cameron says pm wouldnt support ba workers crossing picket lines cos unite bankrolling labour
127 - SO.
I’m a member of a union myself (although it’s called a Staff Association). My father was an extremely senior member of a large, non-Labour aligned, trade union. I certainly recognise the value of union membership, particularly in local casework.
Where I think some of the big unions are going wrong is at the top end where too many people are keen on playing the big ‘I Am’, contesting egos, promoting personal hobbyhorses and junketting around the world rather than advancing their members’ interests.
It’s also worth noting that one union will appear much more militant / moderate in different instances not just because of the company / management they’re dealing with but also because of the staff in the local issue. Simpson, Woodley, Whelan and the rest of the top bods aren’t necessarily in charge as much as the public might think in a localised dispute such as BA. The staff on the ground and their own representatives count at least as much.
136 EiT
if you bother following the thread you will see I believe Blair pulled his usual con-trick on the union leaders. Now with no Blair they have to re-appraise the situation. But they have left it too late for most of their members.
New Poster
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/thetorydiary/2010/03/david-cameron-to-invoke-the-spirit-of-thatcher-in-challenging-the-vested-interests-in-the-unions-and.html
128 Roger, by mutton I expect you mean hill farmed 18 month old wether from rare breeds such as soay or herdwick (and very nice they are too, although you do need quite a few soay chops to make a decent meal)
145. “I simply will not let a Lab govt go back to the past, cave into the unions or be run by the unions.” Tony Blair, Apr 6 1997
147: Well the unions are running labour now! Browns and Labours weakness has allowed the forces of hell to get back in in a way even more than before.
134. Unlikely but not implausible. Some people who suffer repeated discrimination deal with it by finding a different group on which to apply similar feelings of their own.
The BNP’s also as anti-muslim as any political party, which might be a factor in the thinking of some gays. Leaving aside the other implications of voting BNP, it’s probably faulty thinking (playing up the BNP invariably produces a divisive counterresponse), but I can see how some might end up there.
Altogether now;
You won’t get me I’m part of the Union.
You won’t get me I’m part of the Union.
You won’t get me I’m part of the Union.
Till the day I die.
Till the day I die.
121
two more words: minimum wage (which incidentally I think is a splendid thing to legislate for). I imagine Blair put that to the unions as a bloody great sop in exchange for which they were expected to stfu about undoing the thatcher legislation.
Interesting pen portraits of various Conservative candidates
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/audioslideshow/2010/mar/19/conservatives-candidates-election
146 - Real core vote stuff from the Tories there.
146 I think that’s a crap poster. But hopefully it will provoke more Nokia-throwing by no 10. Maybe the Tories are trying to provoke Labour into abandoning all campaigning on policy issues and diverting it into a continuous, unproductive rant about Ashcroft.
148 Slackbladder
Some unions are actually good at reprenting their members interests and do a professional job. More often than not these are unions which are not affiliated to a political party; hence their raison d’etre is their members. In France the contrast between the CGT ( communist party ) and Force Ouvriere ( non-affiliated ) is striking. The CGT would close down their place of work for ideological reasons whereas FO always negotiate to secure their members a good deal but mindful they would like to have a company to work in, in coming years.
Agree that Cameron and the Conservatives have to be pretty careful about the specifics of the BA strike and avoid castigating the individual members of the union (I would hazard a guess that a large proportion, perhaps even a majority, of BA cabin crew staff are Tory voters!).
The more discreet approach applies far less to the RMT, which the party should attack with all guns blazing - Bob Crow is a particularly pernicious ultra-leftist who should be roundly defeated.
146
Amazing for years Dave has done his best to distance himself from the, ‘Blessed Margaret’ and all of a sudden she’s back in fashion.
What the government can do is very limited, ‘beer and sandwiches’ anyone.
Can’t wait to see the police break up the BA picket line, thats gonna be some sight. Ranks of TrollyDollys linked arm-in-arm.
Coppers wading in, ‘Cor look at the tits on that one’ to’ Julian get that coppers number’ ‘I already have dear, we’re meeting next Friday’
Can’t wait.
Interesting tweet from Whelan
Oh dear. Cam lost plot going on about Thatch. What happened to changing Tories? Same old Tories
I guess he is trying to invoke the section of the past where New Labour swept aside Thatcherism (except of course she was already gone), but doesn’t appreciate that the situation more closely resembles the section of the past when Thatcher came to power on the back of union unrest.
Same Old Labour…
153..What do you think about the Army in Afghanistan not getting to vote..good news for the Labour core eh..
The Tory strategy seems to be aimed at UKIP types rather than the centre, are they trying to use this to get their Europe defectors back?
It’s aimed directly at a 60 year old bloke in a blazer at a golf club bar.
lucymanning
Cameron says policies may mean fight with teaching unions
155: Oh of course. There are many unions which do a sterling job of representing their members. However when they either get involved in politics, or go on personal missions against companies leading to strikes that they lose all support from me.
Again O/T, but Labour have lost their overall majority in Tasmania, and it’s touch and go whether they’ll hold on to South Australia.
157 Presumably, that’s Sandy addressing Julian.
99 Roger is it the Labour candidate who is your extended family member or Fred Mackintosh the LibDem/Neil Hudson the Tory?
As for the parochialism of Scottish politics, my former MP Lord MacLennan held his seat over the course of 30+ years representing 3 different parties. In rural Scotland it is still very much the man/woman first and party second. Hence Charles Kennedy will basically remain MP for Ross-shire/West Inverness-shire (regardless of boundary changes) for as long as he wishes to be an MP.
I would go as far as to say that at the GE in 6 weeks there are 60+ different battles going on and there are only 59 seats at stake!
153. Pledging to implement a bank levy is hardly “core vote” Tim.
160, the majority of opinion is against the strikers. Brown is taking huge amounts of money from the striking union.
Of course, in politics every course is fraught with potential pitfalls. But to bang on about the Tories when this is a far, far greater problem for Comrade Brown and other servants of Unite is a little bit silly.
Anybody would think you were one of Whelan’s pet creatures, tim.
160: Whereas labour have been so desperate for cash, they’ve sold their soul to the union devil again.
158. Amusing that Labour has completely airbrushed Brown inviting Thatcher to tea in 2007 from their collective memories.
However, the Tory change of electioneering can be relatively easily explained. For the first three years of the parliament, the party was getting ready, grudgingly but with acceptance, to fight and win the 2005 election. For the next year, it really wasn’t sure what election it was aiming to fight but carried on rather uncertainly as before.
Now we know which election it’ll be. It’s 1979 again.
166..And Tim obviously agrees about no votes for the serving soldiers…funny that.
163
Yeah! I can remember, (I’ve got the CD’s) roaring with laughter at them, and I hadn’t a clue what they were talking about.
SKY News reading out emails from cabin crew who are proud to be working and breaking the strike.
Unite is playing a dangerous game here. There is already no reason for anyone to fly with BA rather than a cheaper airline. I have twice in recent years considered flying with BA, in each case I found it was much cheaper to rearrange my holiday slightly. If I am considering a holiday I do not even look at BA unless I am having difficulty finding a carrier that goes where and when I want - and invariably I find that BA doesn’t either, or even if it does I am not prepared to put my hand in my pocket.
Why the family on Channel 4 News were flying BA to Thailand on their “dream holiday” is beyond me, I am sure there must be better and cheaper options.
166 - Add to that the fact that Cameron has largely got his strategy and tactics spot on and Labour and their siren chorus have a problem.
As we can see from the PB board, theres nothing so certain to split you into tribal lines as unions vs government.
Whereas in this case, the union is the government. Brought lock stock n barrel.
149 This chap could be one of the 7%, though.
http://www.fulhamchronicle.co.uk/fulham-and-hammersmith-news/dynamicpanel-stories/2010/03/15/council-housing-boss-revealed-as-nazi-sex-fetishist-82029-26035540/?sms_ss=digg
172. “Why the family on Channel 4 News were flying BA to Thailand on their “dream holiday” is beyond me,”
The likely answer to that question is brand, which is why this strike is so toxic. If brand is all BA have, and the brand is tarnished because they aren’t flying, the company (and the staff) are finshed
Straws in the wind which might explain the high ‘Others’ in polls?
http://raedwald.blogspot.com/2010/03/rage-ascendant.html
171, what a shame Mr. Brown doesn’t support them.
174, that’s unfair, Mr. Slackbladder. The Unite-Labour relationship is less owner-possession than pimp-rentboy. Unite pays Labour large sums regularly, and Brown turns tricks. Whelan spends plenty of time giving him advice, Unite’s installing numerous candidates in time for the GE, and Brown’s response to the strike is to hide in the bunker, riding a rocking horse and trying to persuade Magda to ask everybody to stop being horrid about Unite’s leadership.
152
Thanks for that! I’ll be taking the laptop up the MoleStranglers Arms, and show that lot to the inmates, Tories to a man. The black guy with the big ‘at he’ll get the odd comment, I’m sure.
UKIP should be paying me for this.
^have tries to post 3 times this morning without result. Have i become suddenly persona non grata?
172 JL
consider yourself “lucky” to have the option. BA pulled out of many regional airports about 5 years ago because with their staffing structure the route were “uneconomic”. Though many of their mainsteam competitors Lufthansa, Air France appear to be able to fly the same routes and make money.
BA dumped a whole pile of its loyal customers and now wonders why they won’t choose it first when flying from Heathrow.
So Dave is confirming that the Tories remain a Thatcherite party. It’s an interesting tactic. One thing is for sure, it will certainly give both Labour and the LibDems a lot to play with. Every morning I imagine Dave gets down on his knees and thanks God that the man he is up against is Gordon Brown.
1. Jack is wrong about Brighton, Tories will win there and the Greens will lose market share.
2. Agree broadly with David Herdson but only if Cameron keeps his cool. Walsh can win this first round of the strike today if enough air crew cross picket lines to go to work. We’ll see.
134 - The BNP figures are depressing but unsurprising. A gay man in an unskilled job where wages are under pressure from immigrants will think much like his straight colleagues. They might well be voting BNP as a protest rather than as an attempt to get a BNP candidate elected.
The two sides appear to be tim, roger, southern observer claiming that Cameron has made a tactical error, while others say they haven’t. I don’t buy the tactical mistake from Cameron, or the ‘gleeful’ tone (which just appears to be people projecting what they want onto what Cameron has said, again). Despite roger’s rose tinted glasses, most people remember the unions as being reactionary and striking to aggrivate the general public while their members are paid huge saleries. Now of course that probably isn’t true, but they come across as being that, and aren’t helped by having people like Tony Woodley in charge.
174 - And yet strangely enough Brown has not repealed a single piece of anti-union legislation. Go figure.
175
90 grand a yr..No wonder council tax is so high..
182. Brown’s had Thatcher at downing street and kissed her arse, Clegg made a speech praising her last week. Neither of them can now slag Cameron off for doing the same without looking stupid.
1. JackW is wrong about Brighton, Tories will win there and the Greens will lose market share.
Rantzen is toast.
185. No, of course he hasn’t, because he knew it would lose a shed load of votes.
182. No, the Conservatives are not a “Thatcherite” party, but they will need to face some of the issues she faced, such as strikes and a deficit out of control.
2. Agree with David Herdson but only if Cameron keeps his cool. Walsh can win this first round of the strike today if enough air crew cross picket lines to go to work. We’ll see.
184 - Most people in this country are not and never have been fans of Mrs Thatcher. She was probably the most divisive political leader tis country has ever had. Dave has spent the last four years telling us the Tories have changed. Now he is showing us that they haven’t. That seems like a tactical mistake to me.
189 - So how can he be in the pocket of the unions?
2. Agree with David Herdson but only if Cameron keeps his cool. Walsh can win this first round of the strike today if enough air crew cross p******t lines to go to work. We’ll see.
181 I am lucky being in the South East, but even so I usually end up travelling from Hampshire to Stansted rather than flying BA from Heathrow. (For some reason Southampton doesn’t ever seem to have flights I want to get, which is a pity as I have a direct and fast train swervice). Even where EasyJet and Ryan Air don’t fly somewhere there are often other low-cost airlines, in fact it makes financial sense to arrange a holiday around your flights rather than vice versa. There are so many places to visit, after all, why be tied to where BA want to take you?
185 SO
it’s dead easy, Brown isn’t the man the unions thought they had bought as everyone can see he’s just crap.
It simply shows Union leaders such as Woodley have sold their members down the river to have an “influence” they can never exert. They are crap too and should be replaced.
It’w why Unions should stay out of politics and concentrating on negotiating what’s best for their membership. Maybe if they had done that over the last 13 tears instead, their membership wouldn’t be falling off a cliff.
191. Yet she won 3 elections and had to be dragged from office by her own party.
192. Because he helps them out in quieter ways, like the union modernisation fund and helping their officials become MPs…
Incidentally, if Phillippe is about, I’ll take his odds on both Romney and Palin… let me know how much. However, I’m (a) not much of a gambler and (b) poor, so go easy on me.
Also, I might be in and out all day, so you might need to be patient on a response.
191
Indeed…. she was so unpopular she won 3 elections in a row… and your point about the Conservatives not having changed is utterly ridiculous.
190 - Mr Cameron is going to ensure that a lot of people disagree. Anti-Europe, tax cuts for the better off, the unions as the enemy within, deep cuts and so on. If it looks like Thatcher, talks like Thatcher and thinks like Thatcher, then I wonder what it is.
This will do the Tories no harm at all in the south and most of the midlands, but it will be interesting to see how folk in the north and wales react. Clearly, Scotland has been completely written off already.
192. Because the UNION’s don’t want the tories back, so accepted Labour messing them around as long as they kept the conservatives out. Now they see the tories are probably going to get into power, they’ve started striking to make changes before that happens.
Right folks, signing off for a few days as got a plane to catch! Have fun and dont be nasty to one another. By the time I return home next weekend the budget will have come and gone and been totally dissected on PB and in the media so I look forward with interest to the polls next weekend.
192: Beucase it’s still ‘New Labour’, and a good number of blairites in the PLP wouldn’t want it. At least until after the election, whereby the blairites are stepping down to be replaced by Unite Stooges.
Blair knew how toxic the unions were to New Labour’s brand, especially in middle england, and did everything he could to break the link, cosing up to rich Non-Doms instead.
195 snap
New Poster
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/thetorydiary/2010/03/david-cameron-to-invoke-the-spirit-of-thatcher-in-challenging-the-vested-interests-in-the-unions-and.html
by Scott P March 20th, 2010 at 9:19 am
Intersting subliminal message there. Brown looks almost Stalinesque and definitely politbureau material.
197 - At a time when Labour was completely unelectable and tactical voting was not much of a factor. Britain’s anti-Tory majority has learned a lot since then.
191 Don’t be daft SO. Cameron isn’t anymore like Thatcher after attacking the Unions than Brown is like Michael Foot for taking UNITE money.
Cameron is simply acknowlaging that there are similarities between now and the early Thatcher period, which seems sensible to me because there are. But there is also big differances as well.
198. The conservative poll rating in Wales has improved over the years, the spector of Thatcher is brought up regularly there to get people to vote Labour.
205 - What would you say are the big differences in political outlook between Dave and Mrs T then?
206 - And now Dave has brought it up.
191. “Most people in this country are not and never have been fans of Mrs Thatcher. ”
Cobblers.
She was divisive, but the majority of the country were on her side of the divide on most of the contentious issues. Look at the GE results if you don’t believe me.
The ones that weren’t, the ones that preferred the status quo, tended to be those that loved telling other people what to do.
Classic case - Scargill. Stupid man, puffed up with his own importance. Even with the Union legislation he could have humbled Thatch simply by holding a secret ballot - and winning it. That’s all that was required. The fact that he didn’t (and perhaps didn’t dare to) tells you an awful lot about the anti-Maggie brigade.
191 Yet, she won 43/44% of the vote, a score which I’m sure Cameron would be happy to settle for.
Contrary to what’s often thought, the Conservatives did rather well in the North, from 1979-97. Where they did badly was in Manchester, Liverpool, and Sheffield.
184 Most people in this country are not and never have been fans of Mrs Thatcher.
So how come she managed to win three elections then? The first time you could argue that people didn’t know what to expect, but she shouldn’t have won the second and third if she was so universally disliked. I think a lot of people, even grudgingly, admired her determination and accepted that she did what she had to, on top of which were her outright fans.
She was probably the most divisive political leader tis country has ever had.
In contrast, Brown isn’t divisive, everyone thinks he’s a c***.
In any case, sometimes there seems to be a period of cultural consensus, at other times division. Neither is right and neither is wrong. Thatcher was no more divisive than Arthur Scargill, Tony Benn, Michael Foot or any of the labour/union left. Neither was she any more divisive than the Kremlin. Any attempt to come to a consensus with them would have destroyed the country. Sometimes politics is about nuance and subtlety, sometimes it is about right and wrong. Sometimes one side just has to win.
206. Yes, after both Brown and Clegg have made her look better by dragging her out to increase their poll ratings. It’s hardly to change voters minds that the conservative party leader is name checking their former leader for over a decade.
200. Easterross , enjoy your break
188 weathercock. Intimating that Jack W is wrong is almost a straight PB red card.
However, you may choose a week in ConHome or delivering LibDem ‘Focus’ leaflets in Luton South for a day ?!?
104 thanks OldNat
I missed that.
Now this is good.
Very good.
The ‘Spring of discontent’ idea (while lacking the bleak resonance of a winter) is sufficient to remind the electorate of the 1979 economic turmoil and the undeniable fact that, just as night follows day, Labour invariably leave the nation bankrupt and at the mercy of the trade unions.
And it is all coming at the worst possible time for Gordon Brown.
As Bob Crow and the RMT bring the rail network to a standstill by calling out the signal workers, Unite (Labour’s paymasters) are intent on ruining the travel arrangements of hundreds of thousands of people as they call out BA’s cabin crew.
And all of these people have a vote.
Since Unite are funding Labour’s general election campaign, Gordon Brown’s hands are tied and his mouth gagged.
The wheel has come full circle: 30 years after Margaret Thatcher stormed to victory to resurrect the ’sick man of Europe’ and remind the unions that it is the job of Government to run the country, Labour have put Britain back into intensive care and re-infected the nation with the virus of trade union militancy
http://archbishop-cranmer.blogspot.com/2010/03/spring-of-discontent.html
Also contains the full text of the speech, which concludes thus
We’ve seen Labour’s style.
It’s feeble, it’s weak, it panders to vested interests.
That’s why they have wasted so many of their years in power and delivered so little real change.
The style we offer is different – strong, resolute, taking on those who block progress so we see change through.
From weakness to strength.
From elite power to people power.
From vested interests to the national interest.
That’s the change we offer.
199
Hmmm there’s very little I can see in the behaviour of Labour governments to Tory governments when it comes to the Unions. Mrs Thatcher was successful in bringing in the sort of laws that Labour had failed to do back in the sixties.
Labour takes the Unions money, but they get very little in return. Some unions the FBU for instance were not treated any differently by Labour than the Tories.
In fact many union leaders would probably prefer a Tory government in power, they don’t have to pretend to like them. As for Labour many are convinced, (’cos its true) that its the Unions that were responsible for its 18 years in opposition.
Labour have only themselves to blame they should have brought in state funding. The Tories would have moaned at first then grabbed the money, (they get some anyway so it can’t be principle) they wouldn’t be on the Cashcroft hook if they had.
We don’t know how this will play out, but my strong suspicion is that it will affect voting intentions less than pb.com pundits think or hope, as is often the case. One can actually make a case that Cameron’s line will help Labour. Here’s some industrial unrest and here’s Cameron saying that as PM he’d be much more actively involved - urging people to cross picket lines, potentially taking on the teachers (!?), etc. “Vote for much more industrial confrontation”? Edward Heath did really well with that, didn’t he?
Of the two disputes, the rail one is more significant. The number of constituents who’ve raised the BA dispute (or Unite funding) as a political issue is zero: I have a few who say anecedotally that they’ve had to rebook holidays, and they see it as a nuisance but not the end of the world. But if there was prolonged rail parlaysis I’m sure there would be more reaction.
Labour governments typically devalue the currency, run out of money, and preside over industrial chaos. Welcome to the spring of discontent.
http://www.johnredwoodsdiary.com/2010/03/20/labour-governments-end-in-economic-chaos/
I think the problem for the Conservatives is that since Thatcher left office, the left has won the “myth” war among a lot of new voters since. I bet a significantly larger percentage of new voters are unfavourable towards than those that actually were adults when she was in office. Quite possibly because her most vocal advocates are often unpleasant people, and quite possibly because they don’t remember Britain in the 70s. The Tories would be good to remind people of how hard that period was (but in a restrained way…)
171 Eastercross.
The other side to that is cabin crew who dare not talk to the media for fear of reprisals.
Can`t imagine Cabin crew are ideoligical radical company wreckers.
They have voted with vast majorities twice for industrial action , so there must be some severe grievances against how they are being treated by the Walsh regime.
218. But Brown’s reply has been to stay very quiet and keep out of the issue unless pressed, which looks even worse.
134/183 - The other thought that might explain a high BNP vote amongst the gay community.
Given that some Muslims see Homosexuals as the lowest of the low, and would quite happily see them stoned to death.
With the BNP expressing anti-Muslim sentiments, I can see why the BNP could appear attractive to some in the gay community.
214 Jack W Any thoughts on a re-pasted response on the PB2 Wales seats article -
““First, the Lib Dems don’t have many realistic targets in Wales. Secondly, all such targets are in Labour seats. Thirdly, the markets seem, shall we say, optimistic about Lib Dem chances in their few targets. Are the Lib Dems really going to get an 11% swing in Newport East (a seat where they are only a few hundred ahead of the Conservatives)” – The odds accurately reflect their chances. The last election was their breakthrough in the seat. They have built on it in each election since. Nearly taking it at the Assembly, gaining Council strength and yes although Labour topped them in the euros they sprang from 4th to a close 2nd in the seat. They have a chance strengthened by the fact as you say that they have few targets so they hardly have a dilemma in where to concentrate resources.
“ and a 7% swing in Swansea West? The polling evidence for this possibility is sparse and certainly doesn’t justify the short odds on the Lib Dems doing so.” – Why? In 32 of 40 seats calling the Lib Dems irrelevant would give them too much significance. The polling evidence will reflect that. But in those 8 seats. The 4 they hold the 2 they want to win and 2 where they harbour long term hopes and can in the short term affect the overall result they are a force to be reckoned with.
“On the other hand, the markets are surprisingly gloomy about the Lib Dems chances of retaining their seats. The best-priced odds in Cardiff Central are frankly insulting to the local MP. Ladbrokes quote the Lib Dems’ chances in this seat at 1/33 and that seems far more realistic to me than the odds that all the other bookies quote on this seat. Labour would have to play out of their skins to take this seat. As we shall see, they probably have their hands full elsewhere.”- Labour will be lucky not to come 3rd as the Tory vote suppressed artificially by tactical voting rebounds.
“I’ve already noted how Lembit Opik doesn’t feel much love from punters. To be quoted at only 2/5 to avoid an adverse swing of 11.4% is astounding.” – Not really provided Lembit quietens down and keeps it as Liberal v Tory he will be fine. But if he doesn’t then he will have to be careful. The Lib Dems have always heavily squeezed others especially Plaid voters in the seat. Against a former Plaid man and hugely popular local Tory candidate that will be much more challenging. If Lembit lets it become a personal popularity contest rather than a party one he will be asking for trouble really.
Plaid Cymru are in contention in a surprising number of seats:
Arfon, while notionally Labour, has a sitting Plaid MP. But look at the odds in Llanelli - 6/4 to get a swing of over 10%? You have to put a lot of faith in their ability to convert Welsh Assembly results into Westminster votes for that. I don’t. – In what way unlike the first assembly results they have a track record in Llanelli built up over years plus a large Welsh speaking constituency in the seat.
“Historically, Plaid Cymru have flattered to deceive at Westminster elections. There isn’t much sign in the polls that they will do amazingly well. I would prefer to be betting against them than for them.” Sounds fair.
This brings me to what I regard as the bonanza, Labour prices:
“Cardiff West, Llanelli, Newport East and Wrexham all look like complete steals at 1/2. Can you see more than one of these falling? I can’t. I doubt whether any of them will. “– It is entirely possible Labour could hold them all as all are at the outer edge of what is gettable for the Tories, Plaid and Lib Dems respectively. But if Labour are getting pummelled nationally then all are in play the polling says the swing will be higher in Wales against them.
“Look at the swings required. In Wrexham and Newport East, there are a multiplicity of challengers as well.” – In theory yes. In practice the Tories have far more targets than the Lib Dems especially in North Wales where Labour are falling away sharply at the moment and the Lib Dems do not exist outside Wrexham. The Lib Dems have no worries then about the order of their targetting. It is Wrexham and nothing else for them.
“Swansea West at 10/11 also looks great value, when you consider that the challenger is the Lib Dems, who have been languishing in Wales.” – Overall yes but as the Euros showed in their competitive seats they are fighting.
“I am more wary where the Conservatives are the challengers to Labour, since they do appear to have made progress in Wales. Even there, many seats have no tradition of voting Conservative. Progress is likely to be slower than in returning English heartlands.” – This is hardly surprising. But relative to past historical performance the last few years have been the worst since the first world war for Labour. Will they now spring back for the election. Possibly yes and possibly not.
“Finally, Ynys Mon is a seat I would like to know much more about. Plaid fancy their chances there, but they fancied their chances there in 2005 and were disappointed. Is the 5/2 on Labour worth having? My spider sense tells me that it might be.” – Possibly although the value would have been with the Tories had their ongoing split with the independent not hit them again. The seat does seem loyal to incumbents but if Labour poll even just a few points below the last election it would be a magnificent win for Labour to hold on.
211 - She won elections because our voting system allows parties to gain a majority of seats in the Commons when they have not gained a majority of votes in the country.
In 1979 the Tories got 44% of the vote and Labour and the Liberals got just over 50%.
In 1983 the Tories got 45% of the vote and the Alliance and Labour got just over 53%.
In 1987 the Tories got just over 46% of the votes and the Alliance and Labour got just over 50%.
1n 1992 the Tories got 45.5% and the LDs and Labour got just over 50%.
192 SO
Labour have vastly increased the head count of the public sector (and public sector unions), and public sector (public sector union) pay has been rising faster than the private sector.
From Unite Annual report;
ANALYSIS OF OFFICIALS SALARIES AND BENEFITS
FOR THE YEAR ENDED 31 DECEMBER 2008
Derek Simpson - Joint General Secretary
Salary £97,027
Pension contributions £26,779
Other benefits £62,820
Tony Woodley - Joint General Secretary
Salary £93,815
Pension contributions £16,347
Other benefits £11,946
The new Tory poster has made the crucial mistake of making brown appear young and fresh. Doh!
http://www.politicshome.com/uk/article/6855/cameron_unveils_new_tory_poster.html
The Tory poster is yet another mistake. Few outside of the politburo on here think linking Brown to the BA strike is a goer. so all it achieves is reminding them of the black days of Tory industrial policy. Remember Cuddly Ken and the Anbulance workers? That’s a box Cameron should want to keep locked.
225. Like Labour did at the last election, by a much bigger margin.
The thing about the BA strike is others in the industry don’t support them, so why would those “not in the know” do so?
One of the things that Murdoch banked on was that he knew that the Fleet Street press was far misaligned from the national picture. They (Thatcher and Murdoch) did bet correctly that the support wouldn’t be widely supported from the provinces and it wasn’t. Tales of short hours, big wages and closed shop practices were common place and when the call to support those losing out to Wapping we’re given a firm f’cough…
These tales came to hit home when a former FT worker joined the company I worked at. Taking home £517 p/w for a 16 hour week didn’t endear himself to those on the National Agreement of £137 p/w. The same is happening with BA.
NPMP - Thats significant re the teachers.
The Tories made a tactical decision a while ago that they were not going to take on Health and Education at the same time, they chose to go after education first, but I didn’t think they were going to broadcast it.
Strangely they seem to have announced that they are going to do a Willie Walsh in your local primary school.
Antifrank - Remember it’s a voodoo poll for Pink News.
Anyhow, why would anyone think that gay people are less likely to be racists than straight people.
Getting on a South African Airlines flight in the 1990’s would disabuse anyone of that view.
A more totemic symbol of camp Afrikaaner racism it is difficult to imagine.
“I simply will not let a Lab govt go back to the past, cave into the unions or be run by the unions.” Tony Blair, Apr 6 1997
This type of talk by Tory Tony was why Labour won those elections, but now he is no longer there we can all see Labour returning to the past.
What a good reason for all those Blair/Tories to return home.
#218 NPMP
Can you tell me if it is illegal for a Labour Government to take my tax (which is meant to improve the lot of the British public)and give it in the form of “modernisation grants” to Unite who then donate it to the Labour party to use for electioneering?
I think this issue is much greater than the dispute between BA cabin staff and BA management.
Can you also ask Gordon Brown to apologise to parliament and Chilcot and the British people for ‘misleading’ them about military year on year budgets and apologise again for stating that for 1 or 2 years it didn’t rise in real terms (it was cut), when in fact it didn’t rise for 4 years (yet another misleading statement.
225. Tell me the last time the winning party won a majority of votes? Are you making the age old mistake of assuming that Labour and Liberals are a homogenous group of voters? They are not.
227 - So you can get two union leaders for half a Coulson.
214 - How so very true. You know I’m actually rather impressed by the performance of Madame Speaker Beckett.
If Gordo jets off to see his NBFF Obama in April, will he fly Virgin?
229. Only if those people wholly agree with your view of the strikes, which I very much doubt.
Weathercock, if you don’t think that the Greens will win a seat, you can sell them on the spreads at Sporting Index at 0.7. If you don’t think they could win more than one seat, that equates to 7/3 (which is substantially better than the odds you can get with any conventional bookie or betfair). Of course, there is the risk that they might win more than one seat.
Disclosure of interest - I have a large position on the Greens in Brighton Pavilion and to win any seat, and have taken this opportunity to balance my books a bit.
234 - Perhaps the Tory IHT cut should be rebranded as an Aristocracy Modernisation Fund.
225 SO
We’ve seen in ‘forced choice’ polling that LD voters often split in favour of the Conservatives rather than Labour.
Who knows what Liberal/SDP voters would have chosen in a forced choice Labour/Conservative option in the 1980s/1990s.
225 So more people were fans of Thatcher than of Callaghan, Foot, Kinnock, Steel etc. And her vote went up when people found out what she was like!
“Divisive” seems to be another one of those weasel words lefties use when it is obvious they are wrong but can admit it. When you are on the wrong side of a black vs white argument, you accuse the winning side of being divisive. Well, the other side would have been equally divisive, or more so, if they had won.
(The other weasel words I have been collecting are “unsubstantiated”, which means “true”, and “opportunistic” which means “yes that is an excellent example of how we have f4cked up”)
236. I see your Coulson tourettes has returned.
How about this, vote Labour and illegal immigrants can live in your garden.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1259279/Residents-powerless-remove-illegal-immigrants-gardens.html
Focus on that thought. You go to work to earn a living and protect your family - and some illegal immigrants move into your garden. Worse the Police do nothing.
Your children can no longer play in the gaden. You cannot leave your house unattended. An englishmans home is not his castle under Labour.
Vote Labour.
GIN the best part of the Strawbs lyrics and very appropriate today is:
So though I’m a working man
I can ruin the government’s plan
And though I’m not hard, the sight of my card
Makes me some kind of superman
Oh, oh, oh, you don’t get me, I’m part of the union
You don’t get me, I’m part of the union
You don’t get me, I’m part of the union
Until the day I die
Until the day I die
a rail strike is a much bigger problem for labour - the RMT never looks like it cares for rail users - using their power time and time again to advance their own narrow interests . The health and safety smokescreen does not fool many
the rail union really is a dinosaur whereas the BA cabin crew are maybe stupidly led but they have all got the service mentality in them and are in fact very good at their job and do not look like your typical militant union members . BA is in a ruthless competitive fight with low cost airlines and can not survive without reducing costs - i think the parties involved will reach agreement because there is no other way and the public will not take sides . The public however will not see the rail union in the same light - they will be seen as protecting their rather cosy jobs by holding the public to ransom and they have form over decades in this area - particularly on London transport . The more Bob Crow appears on TV the more votes labour will lose
225. I think there’s somewhat of a leap of logic to assume that all Alliance voters were anti-Thatcher. Choosing between her and the unions, I think a significant minority probably preferred her. I’m surprised there isn’t more resentment among Lib Dems that the Labour party tends to think of them as Labour-lite.
242 - Who knows indeed. But what we do know is that more people voted against the Tories than for them. I have no doubt that many people remember the strikes of the 1970s. But simple maths tells us that there are more people with memories of the 1980s still around. Also, from memory, the one demographic that seems to have remained loyal to Labour over recent years is the one that grew up in the 80s - the 35s to 45s
.Tim .. a white man cannot own a company in SA i am told.Would you rate that as racism..and what are your views on the military not being allowed to vote if they are in Afghanistan.
243 - I have no problem that you disagree with me and would encourage all Tories from David Cameron down to hark back to the days of Thatcher at all opportunities.
218 NPMP, industrial unrest will only be created if the public sector employees concerned don’t respond constructively to proposed changes. I have always thought that teachers, in particular, should start behaving like the professionals they claim to be and not like extras in I’m All Right Jack.
You are right, however, about the train strike. My plan for Easter had been to stay at home and do some walking and visit some local pub beer festivals. For both of those I usually use the train. I was prepared for some disruption to services due to engineering works - but not a strike.
246 - The Strawbs also recorded an album for Dave
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deep_Cuts_(Strawbs_album)
250 - Tim .. a white man cannot own a company in SA i am told
Who told you that, the voices inside your head?
Politicians respect Thatcher because she led on of the three effective change administrations of the last century or so. It’s recognition of how difficult a accomplishment it is, rather than the details of what was done.
IMHO the three effective change administrations started Campbell-Bannerman/Asquith’s 1906 & post 1910 Governments with the key social reforms led by Lloyd-George and Churchill (Conservative’s tend to forget Winston’s part in Labour Exchanges, minimum wages, National Insurance and pensions) and the Parliament Act set in place the progressive reformist agenda for 20th Century. They managed those despite being a minority Government post 1910, reliant on Irish Nationalist support.
Attlee’s post war 1945 administration built on those reforms to put in place the Welfare State and planned economy, that lasted onwards to the 80’s when Howe’s budget signalled the changes which especialy post 1983 election, victory in the Mner’s strike and economic recovery enabled Thatcher to drive through her reforms. Those have been the settled basis of the politics of the last 30 years.
Question now is if this election delivers the bodged administration of 1974, where no party had a clear view of the changes necessary, with Heath’s Government at odds, with most of the leadership still firmly tied to the Butskellism of post war politics and Wilson’s still trying to complete Attlee’s by then outdated vision or that of 1979 where a disruptive change was offered.
It’s not clear to me if Cameron offers such a change - there are parts of the manifesto, in localism, in education, in social and welfare reforms which do outline a different approach but not with clarity. It’s certain that Brown doesn’t, like Wilson or Heath in 1974 he offers continuation, he is still firmly rooted in the 1997 mind set and from his speeches unable to accept he made mistakes.
In my view unless Cameron delivers clarity, of need for change and more importantly an optimistic view of what that change will be, then a 1974 outcome, this time with a Conservative Government without a majority is more likely than a 1979 one.
Heath, like Brown, presided over an economic collapse, a global one but worsened by UK Government mismanagement, yet in 1974 Labour couldn’t convincely offer a better alternative despite the gifts of a grumpy PM, with no great empathy with the public, a wrecked economy and industrial strife.
241…Tim..I have to remind you yet again that it is the RICH that will pay IHT..Do pay attention.
Portillo and Kenyon debate BA strike on Sky News. Michael White also there, introduced as “an independent voice”.
249 SO
With that logic, over the same time period, more people voted against Labour than voted for them too.
Britain’s anti-Tory majority has learned a lot since then.
by Southam Observer March 20th, 2010 at 9:57 am
Then they got rid of Blair and forgot what they had learned and reverted to type.
After all, that was Brown’s USP all those years he was bashing Tony. He was real Labour, the hard man for the real Labour deal.
Yep, seen that, don’t buy it.
Next.
I see Ed Miliband is trailing a commitment in the manifesto to significantly increase the minimum wage. I can’t imagine anything more stupid either politically or economically. People are not stupid, they’ll realise that such an increase will cost a lot of jobs affecting people who are already hanging on to jobs by their fingertips. As for the reaction from businesses!
255 - The rich will pay far less IHT than they do now. There is no getting round that.
# tim 234
The change in IHT will benefit Blair,Mendelson,Lord Paul etc. plus all the millionaire government cabinet ministers as well as taking the worry of paying inheritance tax from a huge population living primarily in the South East whose property value has massively increased.
257 - That’s certainly true. Our electoral system is a joke.
240. The Greens are just another type of socialist party in disguise, antifrank.
I’ve been selling them since I saw Caroline Lucas on QT announce that she is proud to be a socialist, with no if or buts.
And another thing to ponder. The whole Climate Change world has been turned on it’s arse lately, much to the worlds amusement.
260 SO
But *only* the rich will pay IHT. Unlike today.
260 SO…good..so will those that are not so rich, the rich also tend to pay more income tax..no gettng around that either.What is this obsession with giving your hard earned money away if you do not need to.
This from the Daily Mail is almost certainly factually correct and makes the motive for this strike one of greed by the cabin crew:
Senior cabin crew average around £56,000 a year.
Gatwick crew earn substantially less and are likely to work through the strike.
A proposed BA peace deal had offered reinstatement of 184 full-time crew, annual pay rises of up to 4 per cent a year, bonuses worth 2 per cent or 4 per cent of basic salary, and commitments on working hours in exchange for the cabin crew agreeing to BA’s planned £62.5m of cost cuts.
Better even than the masses on the state payroll.
Glorified waiters with a top whack of 56 grand plus cheap flights for life.
234 “ask Gordon Brown to apologise to parliament and Chilcot and the British people for ‘misleading’ them about military year on year budgets”
We spend more on Brown’s interest payments than defence. When talking about defence spending. The published figure includes 10Billion for foreign Aid.
NHS spending rose from 40 to 113Billion, Defence rose 20 to 30Billion.
The is plenty of money - just not for Defence of the Country.
262. No, it’s not. We just prize individual representatives over party machines.
245 That rings true. A little while ago, some travellers took up residence in our local station car park. Apparently Network Rail employees didn’t want to evict them (because of the implied thread of violence, there were some hard looking blokes with big dogs). However the police refused to turn up even to ride shotgun - because no criminal offence has been committed.
However in that article, Cambridgeshire Police do seem to be encouraging people to use “reasonable force” to remove the people, it should be easy enough to get a posse together I would have thought.
266..Witan..and still they choose to go on strike..I would put that down to very flawed counselling by UNITE leaders..
#241
I thought the ‘Aristocracy Modernisation Fund’ was ‘the Cash for Honours’ that Blair and Labour enjoyed some years ago, and still dabble in with their non doms!
271 no, the Aristocracy Modernisation Fund is stuffing the Lords full of grubby new money tyoes with no social graces.
Bring back the hereditaries.
258 - The LDs these days get far more seats than they used to thanks to tactical voting. In 1983, the Alliance got over 26% of te vote and 23 seats in Parliament. In 2005, the LDs got 22% of the vote and 63 seats.
BA saying enough Heathrow crew are crossing the picket to run their revised schedule.
Walsh is baiting Woodley with an Epic Fail.
Woodley has already lost this strike.
Clegg the Kingmaker? Don’t make me laugh.
http://blogs.wsj.com/iainmartin/2010/03/20/nick-cleggs-coalition-demands-clarke-to-treasury-ashdown-to-defence-himself-to-home/?mod=rss_WSJBlog
269 In fact to quote from the article
A spokesman for Cambridgeshire police said that the makeshift camps were not a criminal matter.
He said: ‘Anybody is allowed to use reasonable force to stop people trespassing and get them off their property - much like a bouncer in a pub or club.
‘If there is some sort of confrontation then we can step in and prevent a breach of the peace, but we cannot act directly against the trespassers.’
This seems to me to be a coded message for “get a posse together, let us know when you’re going to do it, and we’ll turn up and arrest the buggers if they so much as squeak”.
264 and 265 - It’s a dividing line that’s for sure. The rich will gain significantly, some less well-off peope will gain and the overwhelming majority will get nothing, though the Tories will have to find the money they are giving away from elsewhere which means other taxes will have to go up or they will have to cut more than would otherwise be necessary.
224 Punter. I’m off out shortly …. searching the estate for Lib Dem canvassing insurgents …. so I’ll reply later.
237 John O.
…. her name still sends shivers down the spine …. and wallet.
Laters ….
274. Walsh looking for an early nock-out then?
Unfortunately this will only make UNITE more intransigent. Good for any BA passengers left though.
112 Spot on. Labour haven’t been in the pocket of the unions for the last 13 years. Apart from anything else if they had been we would never have been involved in Iraqistan. ZNL have been so very explicitly in the pocket of everyone with cash for favours (camouflaged as cash for honours) precisely because they wanted to avoid being dependent on union money. Now ZNL appear to be losing power the shadowy people slip back into the shadows and it’s back to union life support.
277 All tax reductions have no beneficial impact on those that already get the benefits. The lowest earners get no benefit from personal allowance increases, doesnt make it the wrong thing to do.
Taking people out of tax = a good thing.
Tax = increased propensity for government waste.
Any truth in the rumour that local government employees are to be balloted on strike action to start at 10pm on 6th May, to finish on the following Tuesday, with the subsequent counts leading to a landslide for Gordon Brown with a majority of over 500 or did I eat too much cheese last night?
274 - BA’s problem will come if they keep having to charter planes, make refunds etc. Then Willie will have to justify his intransigence to shareholders demanding to know why BA is forking out more than it would have had to to reach an agreement. Both sides are playing for high stakes.
But if the strike does peter out then the political significance will be pretty small.
229
Yep! Clarke called ambulance workers, ‘glorified drivers’
The Carlton Club was bombed by the Provisional Irish Republican Army on June 25, 1990. The attack injured more than 20 people. One club member, Lord Kaberry, died from fatal injuries received during the attack.
Funny the Tories couldn’t praise them enough then, didn’t give ‘em any more money though.
‘Nah mate can’t stop the bleeding, I’m only a glorified driver’
279. knock-out! Doh!
276, aye, but the rozzers should throw trespassers out. We don’t pay them to turn up and watch as civilians do their job for them.
277..SO..It is a dividing line but when m ex wife passes her modest estate on, her two working daughters will get a little more from the tories than from labour.They will probably bear that in mind in the ballot box..Thats where this stuff counts.at X time..I believe tho that Osborne said it would only happen some years down the line and would have to be costed without affectinG FLS.
281 - Tax reductions affect those who have to fund them.
271 “the Aristocracy Modernisation Fund is stuffing the Lords full of grubby new money tyoes with no social graces”
Baroness Uddin is NOT “new money”! She was living in povery in Housing Association property.
And BEFORE YOU START TALKING about Marble Mansions in Bangladesh, I WILL REMIND you that Bangladesh is the poorest country in the world and Marble Mandsions are very cheap.
279 yeah, Walsh going for the jugular this weekend I think, kill it before it takes hold.
I wouldnt be surprised if he can’t find a way of bribing those on the picket back in.
‘It’s failed, we need to modernise, come back to work and we can disucss restoring your perks and how I am moving us forward’
Something like that.
But if the strike does peter out then the political significance will be pretty small.
by Southam Observer March 20th, 2010 at 10:57 am
You fool! the political significance will be massive, and hopefully another nail in Labours coffin.
24
‘24.Voters over a certain age will have felt a nasty chill listening to Cameron yesterday. They’ll remember the Thatcher years. Police with batons bloodied strikers and years of civil and industrial unrest.’
We certainly remember vermin like Scarghill,Scanlon & Buckton and their determination to bring down democraticaly elected governments.
Ironically they were crushed by a woman who is much admired by the current Labour leadership.
NPPM #234 again.
You seem to have gone on easter break early or cannot answer some simple questions. I’ll try again and perhaps SO or tim can help if you are struggling.
Can you tell me if it is illegal for a Labour Government to take my tax (which is meant to improve the lot of the British public)and give it in the form of “modernisation grants” to Unite who then donate it to the Labour party to use for electioneering?
I think this issue is much greater than the dispute between BA cabin staff and BA management.
Can you also ask Gordon Brown to apologise to parliament and Chilcot and the British people for ‘misleading’ them about military year on year budgets and apologise again for stating that for 1 or 2 years it didn’t rise in real terms (it was cut), when in fact it didn’t rise for 4 years (yet another misleading statement.
277 SO
‘Necessary’ cuts, to eliminate the *structural* HMG budget deficit, are estimated to be £80-£130 billion.
Perhaps Nick Palmer can tell us why Labour is so generous to the NHS and so tight with Defence?
Is it because of the number of UNITE members in the NHS?
288 As does the Union Modernisation Fund, or paying for National Health Services for the rich, or anything else that tax payer money goes on.
Given that the Tory party is not socialist, they are hardly likely to shy away from this matter. Tories, as a rule, do not believe in taking from individuals as a matter of principle and blowing it on poorly run services.
283. I think you’ll find that if Willie bucked to ridiculous demands this time round, he’d find the aggressive leaders of UNITE would be coming back every year for more and more, knowing he’d buckle. France is a good example of where this leads…
277 The Conservatives are not planning to give money away, they are planning to take less in the first place - a significant difference, one which you and Gordon Brown don’t seem to see
So let me get this right;
1) Labour government gives UNITE a modernisation grant.
2) UNITE gives Labour millions in funding
3) Labour government pumps billions into UNITE member salaries.
Are soldiers betrayed by Labour because they are not UNITE members?
If the strike does peter out then the winner is Cameron. He called for crossing the picket lines and the cabin crew would have done it. Brown would not support them doing it.
Labour’s paymasters would look hopelessly out of touch with reality. It will seem that their intransigence has stopped a strike which was not well supported for political reasons.
Having said that the diehards will drag it out as they always do with equally disastrous consequences for the people concerned, the union and their servant the Labour party.
246. Witan as we’re enjoying Labours discomfort through old socialist anthems we hadn’t better forget THE leftie anthem of all;
Then raise the scarlet standard high.
Within its shade we’ll live and die,
Though cowards flinch and traitors sneer,
We’ll keep the red flag flying here.
293 “Can you tell me if it is illegal for a Labour Government to take my tax and give it in the form of “modernisation grants” to Unite who then donate it to the Labour party to use for electioneering?”
The Labour-Union funding certainly needs investigation.
The Taxman is empowered to “see through” complex arrangements.
The Labour-Union money go-round is not very complex.
The lefty Trolls are really scraping the bottom of a, long past its sell-by date barrel aren’t they. Roll on May 7th, the swingback to Labour campaign will begin and with Brown clinging on, good luck with that.
From comparethesmeartwats.com to endedintears-fact.co.uk get use to it…
I don’t think the political significance of this strike is small. At the very least, Conservative attempts to highlight the link between Unite/Charlie Whelan funding Labour has been achieved.
As well as Labour non doms, they can also use this to counter Labour attacks on Ashcroft.
From being on the ropes for most of the first 2 or so months of the year, the Conservatives are now better positioned for the expected GE announcement.
293…russl..Tim never answers tough questions…just seems to make schoolboy jokes about his wee willie…the lad is obsessed by it.Bet you dont get a straight answer from him, straight out of Gordons technique at PMQ’s.
Kill it with fire!
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-1259273/Sarah-Brown-ups-style-credentials-Mischa-Barton-look.html
300 - The servant that has not repealed any Tory union legislation and which negotiated opt-outs from the Social Chapter.
24
This polarises like 1979/1983/1987. We all remember the final score then, and mainstream has even less time for unionism now than it did then.
225
As others have remarked - Labour and Lib Dem/Alliance are not a vote for the same thing.
303 - The are certainly better defined. We now know that in its essence the Tory Party remains Thatcherite and all those claims about it having changed were not really true.
How much taxpayer money does find its way to the unions? Is it just this (10million pound?) UMF or are there other hand outs from either central or local government? And is the 11million the total gift to Labour from Unite or does that exclude the sponsorship of individual MPs?
Is there anywhere I can find answers to these questions?
306 - But they are a vote against the same thing.
I am not sure that your claims about the mainstream and trades unions are backed up by anything other than your own prejudice.
307
The important question isn’t whether the Tories have changed - it’s whether the electorate have.
In the three elections starting in 1979, the electorate had clearly had enough of the heavy influence of Unions on it’s government.
This is the first time that it’s been an issue post-Thatcher.
Wait til the public sector is forced to take the medicine already administered to the private sector.
309- or yours about the Tories SO?
Interesting article Mike. The BA strike is clearly very dangerous for Labour, they need to avoid it escalating at all costs.
Perhaps the least worst option for Gordon would be to simply buy off the strikers - some sort of government subsidy under the guise of ‘protecting jobs.’ Gordo would still take some flak, but the press would only cover it for a couple of days, then move on. He could then call a may election soon after to cut the story short if necessary. It would set a dangerous precedent, but kill the story dead. Maybe gordo could even use the issue to blackmail unite into giving more funds for the campaign?
This would also set labour up well for a weak (and likely, increasingly unpopular) post election conservative government - as a brown-led genuinely left wing opposition at a time of severe private and pulic sector budget restraint.
As for the other strikes, surely Gordo should just promise the unions anything they want to keep them from striking until after the election…
It will be interesting to see how it develops!
PS, i don’t personally agree with the strike(s), i’m just setting out what i feel would be the most electorally successful stategy for labour!
Pps, is ‘electorally’ an actual word or have i just made it up?
Unionism isn’t in the blood of the young.
TU membership down (halved) by 7 million since 1979.
It’s only the public sector - and former public sector - where this kind of thing still exists.
#277 SO
Do listen carefully to what the tories have said.
They haven’t said they will get rid of tax credits for everyone as the liars Brown and Balls say(repeatedly), they are going to take it off people earning more than £50000 per year (that includes trolley dollies and Unite leaders and ALL MP’s and rich people that you hate).
They haven’t said they will get rid of the stupid £250 gifts for every child born, as Brown and Balls say (repeatedly), they are going to stop paying it to people earning more than £50000 per year. (ALL MP’s and rich people that you detest unless they are Labour or Unite members).
Just these 2 measures will help pay off the massive debt Labour are leaving behind.
Cameron has just said they will take a levy off the banks to get back money lent to banks, which will help reduce the debt.
I hope they stop paying child allowance to all earners of more than £50000 as well.
Perhaps a lot more measures such as these will rid us of this dictatorship which Labour & Brown have almost achieved.
re 318. The main post was written by David Herdson - I have Saturday morning’s off!
294 “‘Necessary’ cuts, to eliminate the *structural* HMG budget deficit, are estimated to be £80-£130 billion.”
Before the 2005 election Labour increased the NHS budget from 45 to 80 Billion.
They didnt know what to do with the money. They were putting surround sound 42″ plasma tvs in crew rooms.
The NHS budget is bleeding the country to death.
Just catching up and Compare and contrast the commensts from the previous thread. On the subject regArding the comments made about AQ last night on the previous thread.
Comment 9 Do not adjust your set, sadly Hague really sounds like that. Audience don’t seem to like him, much more applause for other 3.
by Constan Treader March 19th, 2010 at 8:15 pm
Comment 50 Ha ha.
Hague crucifies himself on AQ over Ashcroft.
by tim March 19th, 2010 at 8:27 pm
However the TRUTH IS…..from our man on the spot!!!
I was in the audience at AQ tonight and the atmosphere was utterly dreadful for Balls. Hague had the majority of the audience on side, and Ashcroft resonated far less than Balls being evasive on Lord Paul and, more pertinently, on the Defence figures. If that audience, in central Leeds (not even a Leeds marginal) was anything to go by, then Labour are on for an utter hiding.
by Kratz March 20th, 2010 at 12:09 am
Treader and Tim the PB sockpuppet duo spinning so much they are Disappearing up their own delusions.
Thanks Kratz for that good insight
Is there anywhere I can find answers to these questions?
by Omnium March 20th, 2010 at 11:16 am
The Telegraph give the figures for the modernisation funds in yesterday’s edition. There was some number about the Department for International Developments ‘dash’ to the TUC is the Coffee House I think. I believe there may be more money from other departments under various guises, not least departments dealing with trade.
But I haven’t seen all the figures together although it would not surprise me to find such a summary in one of the Sunday’s along with fun stuff on Whelan.
I am sure that some MP has already asked the Commons Library researchers who sank Brown regarding Chilcot to do a list.
The party said they had changed, not that they had changed from Thatcher. And they have changed: they are more focused on addressing poverty, they are more tolerant of homosexuality and ethnic minorities, they more environmentally conscious (at least the leadership).
Easterross: many of whom are already considered over pampered trolly dollies by the public anyway.
Actually many BA cabin staff look like over-eating trollie frumps to me (Ryanair and Wizzair do, however, have plenty genuine dollies). I suspect politically correct staff selection.
With Labour’s lies, corruption and treason, after the next election the books will be opened.
There will be scandals exposed and arrests.
I expect to see Labour MPs, UNITE leaders, Labour peers and Ministers sent to jail.
Perhaps the least worst option for Gordon would be to simply buy off the strikers - some sort of government subsidy under the guise of ‘protecting jobs.’
by Armitage Shanked March 20th, 2010 at 11:24 am
Oh, I do hope so, that would be great.
We are broke but Brown pushes the taxpayer further into debt to buy off a strike organised by the union which funds Labour through a scheme to launder money from the taxpayer to the union. And in so doing shows he can be blackmailed. So then he buys off the RMT and the civil servants?
And which union next for the handout?
But still underpays the soldiers.
Its all Cameron’s Christmases come at once.
“over-eating trollie”?
its probably due to stopping in 5 star hotels, partying with pilots and eating their salted nuts. You know those they give out with drinks.
I don’t think the electorate is that bothered about Ashcroft - it is just the Westminster Village and the media that obsess about him. Anyone in the general public who picks up the message about a non-Dom donor also knows that Labour has its own non-Dom donors.
The Unions and strike action, however, resonates with a very large proportion of the electorate. We can all imagine the discipline needed to save for a once-in-a-lifetime holiday; the excitement and the despair when a strike is called which will ruin it.
Labour’s links with the Unions generally - not just Unite - is common knowledge. This will hurt Labour badly - and let’s face it, they had it coming. Taxpayers have been funding the Unions and in return the unions have been funding Labour. Unite handed over £11million. In any other walk of life this would be considered money-laundering. And if it was the Tories carrying it out, there would be uproar.
This is not cryogenic neurosurgery.
Transport strikes are bad for Labour. Transport strikes by unions with particularly close links to Labour are particularly bad for Labour.
End.
ok, can someone please explain the ‘gordon’s doing sweet ba’ to me. what is the joke/connection here. i just dont get it!
my god, is it Saturday!!!?
Sorry Mike, i’m not too familiar with your posting schedule and skim-read the last bit of the article! In my defence, i’m currently biking my way around Nepal, pumping up a sagging tyre (and checking pb.com at the same time!) and reading pb mobile on a tiny screen!- mr Herdson, you deserve a lot of credit for your excellent contributions!
332 - BA = Bugger all = British Airways maybe..?
229. Southern Observer. You are slightly wrong with your figures.The Tory %vote share actually peaked under Thatcher in 79 at 44.7%. It fell to 43.5 in 83 and 43.3 in 87.Under Major it fell further to 42.8 in 92. These are GB - not UK - figures!
331 - Indeed.
310, Raven, that’s an awful photo of Magda.
It’s a pun on “Sweet F.A.” surely! It’s a useless poster if even that does not resonate, but the worst thing about it is that the Photoshop job does not even look like JGB! It could just as well be Jack Straw.
323. No problem Moses. What struck, apart from the dearth of Labour support, was just how skilled William Hague is as a speaker. I’ve seen him several times before, but rarely have I seen anybody display the grace under pressure that he showed last night. It must be very disarming to his opponents.
313 I would like to think the Conservative party is Thatcherite.
WRT the 1980s it’s a mistake to think of Labour and Alliance voters as basically on the same side - they weren’t. Polling at the time indicated that the second choices of Alliance voters were split fairly evenly between Conservatives and Labour.
One can say that most voters voted against the Conservatives, but then most voters have voted against the winning party since 1945.
The group that most strongly support the Conservatives now are the over 55’s, who would mostly have been in their thirties and forties when Thatcher was in power. They don’t seem to have bad memories of her time in office.
336 - Indeed, the problem is that Mischa Barton is too thin to carry off the dress and Mrs Brown is slightly too large.
Ed Milipede, full of shit again:
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/5854653/ed-milibands-new-investment-vs-cuts-battleground.thtml
Apparently every kid should have free school meals, paid for by the state. An increase in unnecessary spending is just what we need with an enormous deficit and a trillion pounds of debt.
(It’s the big ears I think - the cropping emphasises them. Done in a rush I suspect.)
341 - Yes that is because only Labour and their commissars for food can ensure that children get a balanced diet.
343, btw, Mr. Burdett, how’s work? Hope it’s a shade less stressful.
341 Does every kid *want* school meals (I know I didn’t)?
333: also Sweet FA, sweet fanny adams or sweet F*** all, depending on which phrase you take
263 Ed Milliband = Fabian “Economics” = Britain further round the U-bend.
There’s simply no basic commonsense understanding of supply and demand near the heart of Brown’s bunker.
New thread up.
332/333. It’s a pun on “doing sweet FA”, which I assume people can interpret.
New thread
24 - oh dear Roger.
I am over a certain age and I remember a friend taking a beating for daring to cross a picket line.
I remember the more extreme left organising in schools in inner London. I still to this day am amazed at the leaflet a mate gave me that he was handed at Tulse Hill comp.
I remember clearly the day the striking miners thought an acceptable tactic would be to drop a lump of concrete onto a car on a motorway, said tactic ending in death. I remember being accosted by a Socialist worker guy collectin gfor the miners on that very day. I remember my disgust when he shouted victory to the miners and when I asked him if he thought that killing strikebreakers was acceptable on the way to “victory” he said that if he hadnt tried to cross the picket line he wouldnt have died.
I’m not a violent man Rog, but I had to be held back that day.
I remember the wife of my local Labour MP telling me I obviously wanted children to die because I did not accept nuclear disarment as a sensible strategy.
Shame you Labourites didnt give a shit about Iraqi kids eh??
In short Rog, your lot have got more to worry about from people with long memories
314
‘314.How much taxpayer money does find its way to the unions? Is it just this (10million pound?) UMF or are there other hand outs from either central or local government?’
The Unite union has so far received £18 million of taxpayers money from this government under the two-little known funds set up by this government called the Union modernisation fund and the Union learning fund.
Since 1998 Unite has given the Labour party £29.5 million and received £18 million of taxpayers money.
Perhaps Nick Palmer could help and tell us the total amount of taxpayers money that has been handed over to the trade unions under the modernisation and learning funds.
While the government has been filling the pockets of the trade unions the defence budgets have been cut and soldiers have had to buy their own equipment.
re302
Arithemetic is not a strong point amongst the Labourites! Except when it comes to lining thier own pockets at the expense of everyone who actually contributes! Nor is the concept that somebody has to pay the bills! Nor is the concept that somebody has to pick up the tab, Labourites will no doubt do a runner leaving the rest of us the consequences of thier irresponsibility!