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Blow for Brown as the approval gap widens

March 21st, 2010


Is Brown/Cameron/Clegg doing well-badly as PM/CON leader/LD leader ..” Well Badly +/-
BROWN 33% (36) 61% (60) -4
CAMERON 49% (48) 39% (44) +6
CLEGG 47% (43) 27% (31) +8
YouGov Sunday Times: FW Mar 19 (Mar 5)

Are these a better pointer than voting intentions?

There is a theory, supported by polling for the 1992 general election, that leader approval ratings are a better indicator of electoral outcomes than the standard voting intention findings.

I sort of buy into this and have begun reporting in more detail the numbers from the two regular polls that ask this in a standard form – YouGov for the Sunday Times and the MORI monitor.

Above are the latest findings tucked away in the detailed data from the latest YouGov poll and the trends are not encouraging for Mr. Brown but provide something of a boost for Mr. Cameron and Mr. Clegg.

One well argued academic theory is that in the UK the PM needs a positive approval rating that is bigger than half of the two party vote. That does not happen in the latest numbers.

Mike Smithson