Is Labour more vulnerable on voter registration?
March 21st, 2010
| ICM Mar 20 data | Voted in 2005 | Aged 18 - 24 |
|---|---|---|
| 2010 CON voters | 89.9% | 3.7% |
| 2010 LAB voters | 81.6% | 8.9% |
| 2010 Lib Dem voters | 88.9% | 4.4% |
Is this a problem with having greater appeal to the young?
The table shows two sets of figures from the latest ICM poll: the proportion who voted for one of the main parties in 2005 and the proportion of their overall support now coming from the 18-24 old age-group.
This is relevant because past voters are more likely to vote next time and, amongst the young, there is a problem with the unregistered.
A couple of weeks ago the Electoral Commission published a report showing that 56% of the 18 -24 group are unregistered and 31% of people with black or minority ethnic backgrounds are not on the register.
Surprisingly this is not a question that is asked by pollsters - so a part of the vote shares being reported cannot be translated into real votes on election day.
Part of the smaller past vote proportion for Labour is down to those who did not vote on principle following the Iraq war. But an even bigger element is because of the greater appeal that Brown’s party has to the younger age groups - and if so many are not on the register what does that say about current poll numbers?
Things could be so tight in this election that we have to look at every angle.
UPDATE: Mark Park makes a valid point on the thread about the 56% unregistered figure which was how it was reported in the media. The figure, he notes, came from a series of pilot investigations which the Electoral Commission’s report explicitly says “cannot be used to report on national rates”. But the broad point remains - younger voters are less likely to be on the register than the rest of the electorate and that pollsters ought to be checking this.
Mike Smithson
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Let’s hope so!
Any ideas when teh next poll is?
Also - does anyone have any odds on Obama care going through?
UkPaul, fpt — Well, since we don’t have to store any cash anywhere until we agree on the outcome, there’s really no downside on taking a long-term bet here!
3. You’ll get next to nothing now. Its considered as close to certain without being a certainty.
No effect, was the same situation at the last election so far as the young unregistered were concerned.
Think we are looking for issue that are not issues.
Bit like politicians who think they have to say something about something when in reality they do not.
Looks as if turnout is going up a bit this time, if the polls are to be believed, certainty liklihood to vote figures etc.
Time for eveyone to switch off till Thursday when the election will be announced.
Heavens above we have Clegg and his family on tonight. Another programme to miss, like the Cameron circus last Sunday.
I wonder if the unregistered young fall under a different educational category to the educated young too. For the 2001 election I was at university and everyone I knew was registered, while nearly all I spoke to voted, or said they did. Perhaps it was just my friends, but there may be a significant gap between likelihood to vote for 18-24 uni students/graduates and those who never went to uni.
Not sure who this is likely to help, if true, though.
I’m sure if they are vulnerable on this, the effects of ahem, postal voting will offset it.
CNN says Stupak is a NO
NBC says he’s a YES.
Hmmmm?
Meanwhile, Intrade gamblers are very bullish.
50 shares at 92.8% gone within minutes.
6
Interesting you didn’t Mention “Tears with Piers” or the recent car crash interview of Gordon Brown last weekend.
3 — 92.8% is last price matched on intrade.
Free money — especially with Stupak virtually in. I’m buying lots as we chat.
92.7 now.
ahh so it is going to go through then?
Does that mean that Healthcare will be put to bed for the rest of this term?
Sky News
Mr Byers described the set-up as a “massive deception”.
Come on Blackburn,stuff the chelsea,the 50% tax rate will make those southern softies cry even more,
2. Probably tomorrow. Its unusual to get polls on a Sunday evening. So the next polls will probably be tomorrow evening, YouGov/Sun definatly and probably Opinium/Daily Express, plus any others that show up.
What’s a “gavel”?
Pelosi’s apparently carrying one.
Last price matched : 95%.
16. Wooden hammer.
11. Oh no! Is the land of the Free truly about to embrace SOCIALISM? Step back from the brink, you fools, think of Pyongyang…
Thanks for pointing this out Mike, I’d highlighted it some time ago and was astonished to find that pollsters don’t factor in registration. It’s one of the first things that they should be asking - are you / will you register to vote etc.
Is there any chance that Angus Reid can include it to see if there is an effect?
BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to JNN the contents of a new ARSE Polling and Seat index.
Con 38% .. Lab 32% .. LibDem 20% .. Others 10%
The PISSED Jack W Seat Index with added SOAMES weighting shows :
Con 330 seats .. Lab 226 .. LibDem 58 .. Others 36.
Con majority of 10. David Cameron is Prime Minister.
…………………………………………….
Jack W Tip of the Day - LibDems to Gain Watford - 11/10 with PaddyPower
Election Night Single Malt Tasting Notes - Number Five :
Sunderland South flashs on the screen and the result merits another of fine Islay single malts - Laphroaig - this is the Ann Widdecombe of single malts - You either love her or hate her !! …. Laphroaig has a very big smokey distinctiveness. Plenty of sweetness too and a presence of sherry. Full bodied with layers of peatiness, nutmeg and almond. A very prolonged finish.
………………………………………………..
Sources :
WIND ….. Whimsical Independent News Division.
JNN ………..Jacobite News Network.
ARSE ….. Anonymous Random Selection of Electors.
PISSED … Political Intelligence Seat Selector Election Determinator
SOAMES …System Of Amending Measured Election Scores
4 - Apart from that I’ll probably forget and you won’t!
12. Yes, should do. Although he might revisit the public option in his second…
Stupak will be in soon.
Intrade seems absolutely certain about passage. Absolutely no value there.
Might be good trading value in the mid-term markets, which will surely experience a short-term Dem boost in all blue and purple states once healthcare passes.
MSNBC reeling back on their Stupak report…
20. Thats a nice looking ARSE, but I notice its going in the wrong direction for Team Blue.
Exit polls from France leaked in Belgium and Switzerland…
Gauce 54-56% Droite 35-37% FN 7-9%
La Reunion is a UMP gain (in a UMP-PC-PS triangulaire)
24. Hispanic states in the South West should be particularly helped, as healthcare is supported by about 70% among Latinos.
It makes no difference. Unregistered are not going to vote so what is the problem! No votes are no votes, so they are of no influence even if a pollster tries to tell us differently!
Besides the young being young are probably going to grunt something that approximates to F!ck Off, whether they go to University or not!
27. That’ll be regarded as a very good result for the left, presumably?
There’s a chap on intrade I’d really like to grasp.
I just make a bid at 92.7 ; sure enough, this fellow bid at 92.8 for 1 f*cking contract. One!
He’s doing this virtually all the time I know I’m on a winner.
Ok — while typing this, I was out-bid by a few others @ 91 and more.
14 ..Jojo starring in “The adventures of a young prat” about someone who will never earn enough to be able to pay 50% tax..
David Cameron MP, Leader of the Opposition
BBC News
Mr Cameron called for two seperate investigations into allegations that former Labour ministers were offering services for payment.
Mr Cameron said “we need a House of Commons investigation and secondly a government investigation” into the government’s role.
Mr Cameron criticised the government’s record saying “Labour former Ministers describing themselves as ‘cabs for hires’ - it is absolutely appalling…the scandal shows the need for change”.
Another point to highlight, could there be a proportionally higher turnout of the youngest first time voters who might vote this time around? They have just turned 18 in the last 12 months, and could be the most likely in this age group to be registered to vote at this GE because they are the most likely to be still at home, and its mum and dad who have included them as being eligible to vote in their household?
The affect of the younger voters is going to have a huge affect on Labour. After all it is they and probably their children who will have to pay for the majority of their working lives for this economical catastrophe caused by the very party they originally trusted previously. They now know this or are starting to realise the dire situation they are in for the next few years.
There may be little appetite for politics and even any party from many of this age group but the young are much more PC savvy and as such are more into online information than standard TV news.
Across the board particularly in the comments sections of articles, papers, Utube, Facebook etc the attitude to labour is totally toxic and poisonous and it will have been noted. This will cost Labour a lot of previous voters in the younger age group as attitudes are swayed back and forth.
26 GIN. Indeed. Somewhat lower than earlier in the week. Con highpoint was Thursday - maj 26.
Vote on the Senate bill not expected until 9pm Eastern time.
24 — No value, wibbler, but free money nonetheless.
I for one am will never spit on a return of 8/92 for a few hours only.
14 JoJo, Rovers draw 1-1. Chelsea won’t like that
What a venue for a PB gathering…
Nightclub entrepreneurs Charlie Gilkes and Duncan Stirling are soon to launch Maggie’s, a new Eighties-inspired club in Chelsea, in honour of Lady Thatcher… Lucky club-goers will hear famous speeches from the Iron Lady playing in the loos. Thatcher memorabilia will vie for space on the walls, along with such paraphernalia as A Team action men and A-ha platinum discs. Timmy Mallet, John McEnroe and Bananarama will be depicted in a giant mural.
Gilkes, who is also behind the clubs Barts and Kitts, explains: “Duncan and I love the general style and music of the Eighties but have always found Eighties nights to be cheesy and naff. We wanted to create somewhere which totally encapsulates the period, from its history to its music, drinks and style, where people can relive or indeed live this amazing decade for the first time. We want to open a nightclub that transcends politics but it will be open in time for the general election.”
Similar debate came up on the post-census survey in 2003 (trying to use survey to account for those who did not complete the census)
Basic conclusion was that those who are not registered are also highly unlikely to respond to MR surveys, so the issue from a polling point of view is pretty much a wash.
They seem very keen in America to take crucial votes on a weekend
Imagine that happening here
20.Laphroaig, a very popular choice among the Tory and SNP supporters in my family, it crosses the political divide and creates a nice relaxed coalition of supporters.
Good article Mike.
We need to see what do we know about the weightings that pollsters use to pick up these factors.
Is ukpaul right that pollsters do not take into account this at all?
Are pollsters weighting each age group based on the number registered and then their likelihood to vote?
37 — Another sleepless night for me then…
30.
2004 second round national figures were: Left 49.92 Right 36.84 FN 12.38.
In 2004 UMP won just Alsace and Corse. Both will be among the ones to watch tonight.
With those exit polls figures, UMP don’t have much hopes for gains in mainland France.
Positive news for UMP seem to de reduced to some DOMs: Reunion thanks to split vote and based on first round figures Guyane looked like a gain for them.
Turnout should be just over 50% overall
20 - Laphroaig is one of my favourites.
20 dont agree with all of that jack!
Mike need a little clarity.
Is the 8.9% that you quote for Labour ICM 18-24 8.9% from the 32% (just over a quarter) or 8.9% x 32%?
JackW I assume you plan to show ever declining Tory prospects until you have a forecast of LibDem and Labour coalition.
20 Jack W
Your missing one. I think you need “SH1TE”
Standard Hypothetical Interrogation for Testing Electorate
…….or ‘YouGov’ for short.
42 ChristinaD. Surely ‘fitaloon’ hasn’t defected to the SNP !!
46..Just been given a bottle of “The Balvenie..doublewood” and “Glenrothes 1991″..any comments..
31– That was 90.7, not 92.7
20 Jack W Any thoughts on Wales?
17 O/T But how would voters in say Coleraine react to mainland accents knocking their door to ask for their vote. It would be interesting to know how far Ulster voters would be happy to see mainlanders getting involved or whether they would very much want locals to be the street contact for them.
I’ve just done a rough count, and I reckon about 25 of the first 35 comments on this post have nothing at all to do with the topic!
Is this a record?
I’m a fairly regular reader and I’m keen to learn, so I’d be really pleased if the knowledgeable folks on here could actually address the question. I thought it was a subtle and interesting one, but I guess that’s a minority view!
43 - Mike says as such in the article “Surprisingly this is not a question that is asked by pollsters - so a part of the vote shares being reported cannot be translated into real votes on election day.”
Laphroaig, amber necter…
quite partial to Glengoyne as a lighter alternative.
50. Moses, such ingratitude! YouGov are now showing a higher Tory lead than ICM. They’ll be the new ‘gold standard’ by the middle of the week.
Glenrothes 2009 - a steal….
RE ICM polling in general.
Many PB’ers refer to ICM as the gold standard.Would narrow it down futher and say it Is ICM Guardian which is Gold standard.This is the totally regular ICM poll which has taken place since 1982.Another consiseetbcy featrure is that it is usually ata similar time each month ie 3 or 4th week.
ICM Sunday Tellegraph. tens to show slightly higher LibDem figure,ICM NOW a slightly lower one.
So using the ICM Guardian March 2005 showed 20% share exactly the same as 2010.The final result for lib dems in 2005 was 22.6% so if the same happened a share near 22% for, lib dems looks achievable.
A trend analys of the shift in the proportion of 18-24s who identify as left-leaning would be invaluable.
After a very long time out of fashion, it’s becoming socially acceptable to be a Tory - how this reflects itself in the new voters will be fascinating.
I’d expect a big chunk to still be right-on, but I wonder if Tory identifiers are more likely to be registered and hence also more likely to turn out - particularly if they live at home and go en famile to the polling station.
47 Ave it. You don’t like Laphroiag ?!?
49 Witan. Don’t be such a sour pussy.
Small movements in my ARSE have nudged the Tories down a tad. Indeed on UNS we’d be in hung parliament territory from the start.
Outwith of my ARSE I’m still in the Conservative majority camp …. up and until the evidence tells me otherwise.
The Hill currently shows 38 Democratic no votes on Obamacare, which would be enough to kill it. Still, the Dems won’t allow a vote until the votes are there and Obama/Pelosi will promise anything to any key congressman if that’s what it takes to get this thing passed. They just can’t come this close without passing it.
52 Richard D. I’ll be reviewing both later in the series.
54 Punter. Ah you’re back.
Frankly I’ve no new comments to those I gave a week or so back. Brecon is tightish I’m told, Ceredigion not so. Swansea also looking hopeful for the Lib Dems.
FPT - Demon Pass was a tactic, not a strategy. As S&S rightly pointed out about a week ago, this is NOT the kind of vote that congresspeople can duck.
My guess is that the US House kabuki theater of the absurd over the past day and into this one, is about rounding up the maximum number from Dems with safe(r) seats, in order to avoid making more vulnerable members walk the plank.
Reckon that Steny Hoyer will be watching the roll call VERY closely . . . and giving the nod to more than one member, to let them know IF their votes are needed or not.
BTW, also reckon that racial slurs and worse by teabaggers not only help rally the CBC for the bill, but may have some impact - modest but not insignificant - on 2010 midterms.
And Philippe, thanks for your kind offer re 2012 presidential BUT I don’t bet, leastways not with money! However, would you consider giving my proxy as it were to PtP, IF he’s interested AND that’s ok by you? (Don’t need to post your reply to that. unless you want to.
chelsea = season over
man u = title winners
51.JackW, No. But his Laphroaig drinking partner is an SNP activist and our brother in law.
64 Coutesey of Blackburn Rovers
66 Christina. Phew …. but close to home !!
Tell me, what’s your Desert Island Single Malt ??
New estimation (OpinionWay) from France
Gauche 52,2%, Droite 37,1%, FN 9,7%
Alsace to stay UMP…maybe not as narrow as some thought (as expectations were so low, can few lights save the day in terms of narrative/spin?)
Le Pen scoring 24% in Provence- Cote d’Azur?
Frenche (PS dissident) easily in Languedoc-Roussillon
Madame Royale comfortable in Poitou Charentes
52 richard dodd
Just send both bottles to Kristin. Scots PBers will then visit to sample, and we’ll send you back our tasting notes.
I can’t believe that Labour are ahead among the 18-21 age group. Young people always rebel against the status quo
When I was 18 in 1979 everyone i spoke to in my age group was either not voting or voting Tory, saying that you wanted another term of Jim Callaghan was the social equivalent of being a male fan the Bay City Rollers.
David Cameron may not be a hit with some of this age group but I can’t believe that Gordon Brown has any support at all.
OT After much erming - I’ve defected from R5 to R4 as my default listening and I’m kicking myself that I didn’t do it AGES ago.
I’ll pop back for Up All Night/Nolan and the phone-in/Friday films/Drive but that’s it.
I left R4 after about 15 yrs after getting heartily sick of Euro-micro-issue fussmaking and now R5 is so dumbed down it’s not worth listening to bar a few gems.
Whoever in charge these days should hang their head in shame at what they’ve done to a previously really strong news AND sport rather than football and everything else stupid station.
54. We might see if the Tories get their preferred candidate in South Antrim. They are a non-local originally from England
61- The Hill now showing 39 “no” votes…
http://thehill.com/homenews/house/85693-whip-watch-the-hills-survey-of-house-dems-positions-on-healthcare-
Jack will we seeing your ARSE in The Guardian do you think? As RodCrosby got his swingback theory into The Guardian a while ago, it only seems fair that your ARSE should appear as well doesn’t it?
re58
Impossible to swallow that one and the aroma of it is enough to repel even a hoodie! Enough to make you “cowk” as my mother would say!
69..Oldnat..Thank you ..what a generous offer, your generosity is exceeded only by the beauty of your countenance…I might be a sassenach but I aint stupid..
70. I would have thought the 18-21 year old age group would be largely Lib-Dem or Green. It does seem odd that dreary old Gordon Brown should appear to the young….
appear = appeal.
77, maybe they like voting by post.
Unite’s claims about the success of the strike don’t stack up, according to airline blogger Steven Frischling.
He questions seven of the union’s claims, point-by-point
Many of the press statements did not correlate with the on-the-ground reports I was receiving from travellers, plane spotters and other unbiased and independent sources.
While I am not taking any sides in this labour dispute, I am choosing to side with factual and verifiable truth. Should Unite The Union seek the support of the public, the politicians and its members, it might want to start checking its facts before issuing public releases.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/blog/2010/mar/21/britishairways-tradeunions
77,78 - He is always going to schools appearing to the very young.
S&S does your DeNo list include Stupak & Co? If so it’s past it’s shelf life!
On another topic, looking from your perch in Trenton (am guessing!) do you think that things are looking up for your unfavorite US Senator, Arlen Spector (R>D PA)? That is, with respect to Democratic primary in April? Or is Admiral “Peachfuzz” Sestak in position to sink the old Keystone battlewagon?
NYT has a good list - Pomeroy’s now a yes giving 211 for, 208 against at the moment.
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2010/03/16/us/politics/20100316-health-care-dems.html
9. The Intrade gamblers have a long time lag, to pull out if Obamacare doesn’t pass today, Phillipe.
‘Obamacare’ health care reform (see contract rules) to become law before midnight ET 30 Jun 2010
81. I knew someone would have fun with my mistake.
10 HI, why is that interesting, talk about looking for more problems and issues that do not exist, throw that interview in as well, I did not watch that either.
Much rather see a recorded edition of “Damages”, they are real families!!!
75 GIN. I’m not sure I should go downmarket from PB to the ‘Guardian’
However I’m contemplating a very considerable offer for delayed serialization rights from the Auchentennach Jacobite Root Vegetable Weekly …. you should see their page three swedes !!
85 - too good to resist GIN my friend.
82- This isn’t my list, SSI, this is The Hill, which seems to be right on top of this. There are still conflicting media accounts about Stupak’s vote, but I haven’t seen convincing evidence yet that he’s flipped.
Sestak has been waging an uneven campaign and the Democratic establishment is completely backing up Specter. If Specter is defeated, it will have to be a completely grassroots effort within the Democratic primary electorate. Frankly, if I were a Pennsylvania Democrat, I don’t know what would convince me to vote for a frail, elderly turncoat for another six-year term when there’s a perfectly acceptable, younger, non-turncoat alternative. Specter is well ahead for now, but I still don’t think this one is over.
dayen :
So it’s entirely about the Stupak bloc, we’re at 209-209 with only four non-Stupak related votes undecided
76 richard dodd
You try to help some people …!
To add to dr spyn’s description of the Glenrothes -
“Has an interesting balance of flavours, but needs to be undisturbed. Not recommended to be delivered by post.”
One for the whisky snobs, due to having friends and family in Scotland I have the following unopened malts in store and which would be the best to crack open to drink to the demise of the Despot Brown!
Aberlour
Linkwood
GlenMoray
Dalwhinnie
Highland Park
MacAllan
90- Yes, if Stupak does flip, it’s over.
91..Thanks..looks like I will ahve to sample it all by myself..Its tough down here..except I live in Italy and the buggers just love the stuff.
OT, the differential turnout of various demographic components of the electorate - older vs younger, richer vs poorer, etc - alwasy has been a huge factor in US elections, esp. in midterm elections in non-presidential years.
91. LOL.
not to be shaken, stirred or examined to closely, has a strange unique aroma akin to rotting fish.
Just seen the Byers “Cab For Hire” video. This is really really bad and utterly toxic for Labour in all respects. No pretend moral outrage from the Government will ever cover the fact that these are senior LABOUR cabinet ministers selling influence for cash. Yeah they are no longer ministers and yeah they are all stepping down but thats irrelevant and we all know it.
They have caught these people bang to rights and we await with interest the announcement of the investigation which is most certainly required but one that will no doubt be chaired by the inevitable ’safe pair of hands’
before the Government finally kicks it into the long grass until after the GE and the Beeb killing the story dead.
Anything more on Browns porkies to Chilcott by the way? No thought not.
95. And could probably be entirely responsible for the remarkable successes under William Hague in both local elections and european elections… It was *only* under Cameron that the Tories started to do well in elections with high turnouts.
SSI : “would you consider giving my proxy as it were to PtP, IF he’s interested AND that’s ok by you?”
Im afraid I don’t understand what you mean….
Can you rephrase it please?
Boris Johnson writes a good article on university fees.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/borisjohnson/7494243/Why-are-we-paying-to-educate-EU-students-in-our-universities.html
92..love all of those.My brother in law has 1000 litres of scotch laid down, its 12 yrs old now..He is Italian, said he might give me a bottle, I think there is a lot of scot in him..
67.JackW, not a malt drinker myself, but the one exception to the rule is Caol Ila.
By the way as regards the US healthcare vote, the US is on summer time so Washington is currently 4 hours behind.
Mike: the 56% figure you quote isn’t actually correct; it’s been widely (mis)reported in the media but is actually a figure from a series of pilot investigations which the Electoral Commission’s report explicitly says “cannot be used to report on national rates”.
In terms of trends, several of the other figures from the report are fairly positive about registration with figures being on the way up; more details in my post at http://www.libdemvoice.org/electoral-registration-is-the-problem-with-young-people-or-with-journalism-18197.html
Find the 18-24 demographic going for Labour odd. On universities campuses I find hate for lying Labour over student fees (and now cuts) and obviously still the Iraq war etc etc etc. Furthermore, everybody knows that graduates are finding it much harder to get jobs (never mind well paid (proper) graduate jobs) and there are a lot of angry people out there who have paid a lot of money for degrees that actually haven’t got them anywhere.
103 Has anyone mentioned Bowmore Islay malt yet?
Stupak is for HCR, in the abstract. My guess is that he’ll vote “yes” if Nancy needs his vote; but would prefer to vote “no” if he knows the bill will pass anyhow.
But I might be wrong.
91 We went to a distillery on the North side of Inverness, I can’t remember what its name was but I bought an aged bottle for my neighbour’s 80th. He deemed it nectar… A quick Google discovers that it was Glen Ord.
108 (cont) I assumed most of this feeling would translate into decent support for Lib Dems and Greens.
104 richard dodd
Is your brother in law from Barga by any chance?
I never realized that it was possible to use the words ‘malt’ and ‘unopened’ in the same sentence.
re109
A very smokey peaty malt. One definitely for cold wet winters night, especially if stuck in a Bothy!
113…Lincoln…but is moving down to the family home in Southern Italy this year, has a london accent…dad was a pow who didnt go back until he retired..he liked a wee dram apparently..
Earl Pomeroy is a Yes…
http://bit.ly/bSvMO3
guidofawkes
Think next week is going to have an intense news agenda: might even be dusting off the crosshairs.
Iain M, the Highland Park is a great drink. And note that it is NOT what you (or at least yrs truly) would consider “over-punctuated”.
111 Nice little distillery, have also been there. Have a bottle of it in my cabinet, along with a small decanter.
The Highland Winery (Moniack?) is nearby too - worth a look.
The population of the UK is about 62 million. Since about 75% are adults, there should be about 46.5 million people on the electoral register but actually the number is only about 44 million.
That would mean that on average about 3,850 voters per constituency are missing from the register.
108.Oracle, I was going to make the same observation up thread to be honest, but thought it would be seen as being partisan. I have definitely missed any signs of Brown being popular with the younger voters, and its no surprise to me because of the issues you listed. If anything, Brown seems to be the most unpopular of our current political leaders with the younger generation.
There seems to be chaos on the floor of the house.
Excitement and unruly behaviour.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/
118 - Ooh wonder what he has got and on whom
113 I have offered to transport the 1000 litres down there , it might take a couple of years tho..If I can remember the route, should be fun
62 Jack W. Thanks. I’m not surprised at B & R but they do have a large Labour vote to squeeze and being the seat of the Lib Dem Assembly leader you can be sure it will be fiercely defended. Still recount territory on the night would not be surprising at all. Any thoughts on the other seats mentioned though especially Newport East. If Swansea is beginning to crack that may free up more yellow peril shock troops for that seat.
Re Ceredigion It has long looked that PC certain gain predictions were nonsense. The Lib Dem MP seems to be entrenching firmly and it could be one of those majority increases surprises as much as anything else that could happen. I guess you do not mean not tight as in certain PC gain though.
What does Paddy Power know that others don’t?
Election Debates..first to noticeably perspire:
Clegg 11/10
Cameron 6/4
Brown 3/1
These odds seem to be the opposite of the expected fat guy in a disco effect under which you’d expect Brown to be the best option.
124 Charlie or Toilets probabaly, he doesn;t like either of them at all!
re114
Well once opened, it does an act much like the Nations money when Labour is in power - it disappears quickly!
202, Philippe M - would you consider giving odds that you quoted for me (and S&S) re: Palin & Romney, to Peter the Punter (IF he’s interested) since I will NOT be you up on your kind offer?
128 - I wonder if he has something lined up for this Easter
131 maybe he is going rogue and has some senior Tories to offload on.
You never know with Guido - although if he prattles on about a picnic, the revelation is almost without exception, totally banal.
121 Surely a lot of immigrants post 2005 are still not eligible to vote-could anyone enighten me to the period of qualification,please?
130 — Absolutely. I’m a big fan of PtP!
114.”I never realized that it was possible to use the words ‘malt’ and ‘unopened’ in the same sentence.”
My mum still has a 25 year old Macallan that was given to my father back in the eighties, never even been out of its gift case.
71- Andrea
Thanks for the reporting!
The results seem as we discussed earlier this week… Just a bit of suspense in Corse (but there the seat bonus for the leading list is lower than elsewhere so it is even more complicated!).
Reunion is a nice win for the right and finally means the beginning of the post-Verges era.
Elsewhere the main lesson is that the FN resisted very well and scored high especially in Provence and Nord (traditional strongholds).
The left can be very happy of the general result. With a possible national win in sight the internal campaign for the presidential nomination should become heated even earlier than I thought (next spring). I guess this fall could be the defining moment.
The right has its work for the next two years very clearly drawn: get back FN voters as they did in 2007.
110- “There have been various reports on Sunday that Rep. Bart Stupak (D-Mich.) and other anti-abortion lawmakers have agreed to an abortion deal involving an executive order from the Obama administration. However, Stupak’s office are strongly denying those reports.”
http://thehill.com/homenews/house/88129-democrats-dont-appear-to-have-216-hours-before-a-healthcare-vote
Politico.com is now reporting that Stupak is NOT a done deal . . . or rather, done dealing:
“I’m a no vote There is no agreement. Until there is an agreement I’m a no vote.”
On the other hand, they are reporting that local media in Toledo, Ohio (home of the Fighting Mudhens) that local Rep. Marci Kaptur (D-Ohio) a liberal pro-lifer has announced she will vote Aye.
Cameron’s right to major on the Labour cabbies for hire - it reeks of end of Govt sleaze, and we all remember what the antics of Hamilton et al did to turbocharge the Labour vote in 97
76- S and S
The Hill says dems don’t have the vote. 39 no + 8 undecided
http://thehill.com/homenews/house/88129-democrats-dont-appear-to-have-216-hours-before-a-healthcare-vote
re121
It is probably more than that as many voters will be registered in more than one constituency. I was registered in 2 when I was a student and again when I was in in the Royal Marines. So you would have to make a further allowance for double registrations!
130 Are there any chances for Democratic gains in House or Senate to cancel out some of the expected defeats to the GOP.
140- It’s tough to believe that, if the White House really ends up needing the votes of the much-reduced Stupak coalition (and now it looks like they do), they won’t find a way to make Stupak happy. There must be some way the White House can buy this guy off.
132.Guido has always been a lot less partisan than he is given credit for, he is an equal opportunities Libertarian. Labour are in government, so they have been by far the biggest target of his blog to date for that reason alone. If that changes at this GE, then I expect his focus will turn much more to making sure the Tories are kept on their toes. I predict that he will then go from being public enemy blogger No1 to become a darling of the left leaning blogsphere very quickly.
As things stand, an 8.2% swing in the marginals would deliver the Conservatives the 117 gains they need for a majority on election night:
http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dC1xYVZtRklRVzZrMTNON0dRXzJ2Nnc&hl=en_GB
142- The Dems will probably gain two or three currently-GOP House seats, and have an outside shot at gaining one GOP Senate seat.
62.”After a very long time out of fashion, it’s becoming socially acceptable to be a Tory - how this reflects itself in the new voters will be fascinating.
I’d expect a big chunk to still be right-on, but I wonder if Tory identifiers are more likely to be registered and hence also more likely to turn out - particularly if they live at home and go en famile to the polling station.”
Plato, totally agree.
The government last year rejected calls by the Public Administration Committee for a statutory register of lobbying activity, detailing the names of lobbyists, whether they are former ministers or officials, who is hiring them and the minutes of their meetings with decision makers.
Instead it gave the lobbying industry a final chance to get its house in order through self-regulation and vowed to publish details of ministerial meetings with interest groups.
…
Labour has now pledged to include a statutory register of lobbyists in its election manifesto.
…
Tory leader David Cameron shocked the lobbying industry earlier this year when he said it had got out of hand and was the next big political scandal waiting to happen.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8578788.stm
140- Chris, can I ask you a quick, COMPLETELY OT question? “Bien entendu” means “of course,” but can it also mean something on the order of “agreed” or “understood” (acknowledged)? Thanks!
146 Any suggestions.
136. Hi Chris.
Alsace is not close in the end. I see 47% to 38% estimation.
The expectations were so bad for UMP that in the end it almost feel disappointing to see la Gauche at “just” 52% nationwide.
Both LePens did very well…I see Freche at the polling stations, always classy…
Reunion final result
UMP 45.46% (27 seats)
PCR 35.55% (11)
PS 18.99% (7)
Oh well the Guardian / Gordon Brown get in early for the most ridiculous statement of the week:
Brown to compare superfast broadband to invention of electricity
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2010/mar/21/gordon-brown-superfast-broadband
Now when you can use superfast broadband to cook food for you, provide light and heat for you then I will agree that it is a valid comparison until then Brown is talking bollocks!
Furthermore, on the proposals at hand I have no doubt that this could save millions whilst making hundreds of thousands of public servants unemployed but if ever there was a means by which the State becomes a remote faceless impersonal enemy then this is it.
No doubt Governments will keep on down this route until its too late for them.
MPs reacted angrily to the revelations today with Mr Cameron demanding an investigation, adding that the claims raised wider questions about whether the MPs had broken sleaze rules.
“These are shocking allegations. I have been warning for some time that lobbying would be the next scandal to hit politics,” the Tory leader said.
“First of all the House of Commons needs to conduct a thorough investigation into these (former) Labour ministers but also the Prime Minister would want to get to the bottom of the allegations being made about his Government.”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article7070350.ece
152
Well it’s about as credible as Gordon’s webpage-for-everyone idea from Saturday - since every major IT programme has gone way over budget/overtime or been cancelled in embarrassing circumstances, I really can’t see the back-end integration of every HMG database/interface EVER happening.
And just imagine what it’d do for indentity theft when it was inevitably hacked ?
For those who are interested in following today’s historic US House debate:
http://www.c-span.org/Watch/C-SPAN.aspx
149- S and S
No problem.
“Bien entendu” means “of course”.
“Entendu” or “c’est entendu” means “agreed” or ” understood”.
Single malts.
I once took a party of visiting East European journalists to the Glengoyne distillery in the early ’90s after the work of the factory tour was over.
They were entranced but it was sad to see that they could only afford miniatures to buy to take home.
For my own part, the Highland Park dislillery is the one I enjoyed visiting the most. And still drink.
153 The Tories must be delighted that the ST sting tried it on Kirkbride and she spotted it [assume it's her journalism background] and warned CCHQ about it.
Since the Tories have been out of power for donkeys, I assume that they’d have much less chance of saying anything too stupid by dint of purely not having the right ears to bend recently.
145 Thanks, Andy. Filed for election night.
Tweet: PhilCane
British Army Rumour Service: found that 57% planned to vote Tory, compared with 7% who said Labour http://j.mp/cMkGCq
Bit of a change from 1945, then. ‘Mr Brown, you are no Clem Attlee.’
Anyone undecided at this stage is just waiting to be bought off…
152. “Brown to compare superfast broadband to invention of electricity”
What a stupid comparison.
Reading the article it looks like the government has bought a load of snake-oil from the usual carpetbaggers, most of which ought to be banned from future government IT contracts given their repeated failures to deliver on time and at cost. Still as usual the contractors will make out like bandits.
156- Thanks Chris, very helpful!
Am I alone in thinking the Byers, Hoon and Hewitt story today, is a revenge play straight out of the bunkers black ops book?
It sure would be interesting to find out who tipped The Sunday Times in their specific direction
This is what the Brown apology has opened up…
Philip Hammond has called on Brown to put the record straight after he double counted the no. of businesses helped by the Time To Pay scheme
http://twitter.com/Conservatives/statuses/10830978716
151- Andrea
Freche and Languedoc deserve each other… he is a good combination of the region: left-wing and xenophobic.
164 - Saddo, it does have the smell of an inside job. However it doesn’t take away from their utter stupidity.
149 — No really. Pas dans l’usage courant. Not from the french litterature I’ve read, and certainly from the French we speak in Québec.
On the subject of single malts - did anyone else listen to the fascinating programme on R5 about this a couple of weeks ago?
I had no idea that single malts only came about as a popular tipple when the traditional market for blended went into free fall and so the singles were available for sale instead, IIRC.
Stephen Byers is in hot water. The former cabinet minister is at the centre of a Sunday Times undercover investigation into lobbying and MPs making themselves available for hire to corporate interests keen to influence government policy in their favour.
He now says that when he was caught on tape he was exaggerating, presumably to impress the fake lobbying firm trying to establish what he could do for them. He denies any wrongdoing.
An extraordinary spin operation seems to have convinced parts of the BBC that actually there’s not much to see here, and that the real story is that ministers are condemning their former colleagues (well, they would, wouldn’t they, as someone from another scandal once put it). And also that Gordon Brown is determined to take action against lobbyists, something he seems to have overlooked in either the last three or 13 years.
Ultimately, this story just demonstrates, yet again, how corporatism works. When government is too powerful, free markets are too weak and competition insufficient, companies (clearly not stupid) will realise quickly that the main route to getting what they want lies in convincing government to give it to them. Thus doing business and making money hangs on who you know in power and what they can do for you — rather than in just making better products than your rivals and selling them to customers.
http://blogs.wsj.com/iainmartin/2010/03/21/stephen-byers-lobbying-scandal-how-corporatism-works-part-94/
154. Plato
Indeed can you imagine the sort of benefits fraud that will be able to be instituted by hackers once they have access to such systems across the Internet?
And no doubt none of it will be recorded as crimes on the British Crime Survey (internet fraud rarely is recorded at all)….
156 Congratulations to France for the Rugby. Looks like they will be the only northern side in real contention at the world cup. I imagine a lot of Lievremont critics are eating their words in the French media at present.
Obamacare’s trading relatively low now — 91.2 last price matched.
not good value, but free money
156, C(fB) - does “d’accord” mean much the same thing?
Per Ambinder :
Stupak will announce his vote @ 16h00 ET.
162 GLW Absolutely agree
164. Saddo - No you are not alone. I think it was payback by the Forces from Hell for the January coup.
174 see 142.
168- Thanks Philippe. I saw a bit of a French movie on TV a few nights ago about some kids who were big Montreal Expos fans back in the late 60’s/early 70’s… for a moment I thought they were all drunk and then realized they were speaking Quebecois French!
175 — in 30 min, right?
178 —
re169
I always knew the Scots were keeping the good stuff for themselves and selling us English an inferior product called a blend. The first lesson I learned in my my first week at Glasgow University all those years ago! You have to admire thier audacity!
164
I posted this on the last posting.
Stephen Byers, Patricia Hewitt and Geoff Hoon,What have they all done? Tried to remove Brown, so have they been set up by “the dogs of war”?
Believe US House debate is winding down, as chair has just announced that both sides (not counting Speaker & Minority Leader & perhaps others) have less than 3 minutes each.
What was that someone was saying about the failure of Government IT projects?
Delays with £12.7bn NHS software program bring it close to collapse
Department of Health locked in frantic talks to save Lorenzo, the IT package meant to revolutionise patient records
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/mar/21/nhs-software-system-close-to-imploding
Live…
The House Health Care Reform Debate and Votes, here: http://bit.ly/9BKXvZ
Dannythefink
If I was Byers my first thought on being asked by a stranger if I could influence things for cash wld be…this guy is from Sunday Times!
Dannythefink
That an MP shld claim to represent Tesco when he doesn’t is almost as bad as if he did. The stupidity as jaw dropping as the avarice.
re182
A conspiracy theory too far that one! For as a set up it makes not the individuals in question look bad but makes it look as corruption goes to the very heart of this rotten Government! Not that it doesn’t anywway!
160. Unfortunately in 1945 the armed forces totalled over 5,000,000 in all branches.
The total for 2010 is I believe under 300,000 for all branches. Valuable votes for the Tories sure, but not a patch on what labour got in 1945
I predict…
Stupak will announce he’s a… YES!
Tweet: PhilCane
British Army Rumour Service: found that 57% planned to vote Tory, compared with 7% who said Labour http://j.mp/cMkGCq
Bit of a change from 1945, then. ‘Mr Brown, you are no Clem Attlee.’
by Prodicus March 21st, 2010 at 7:19 pm
Government changed the rules on them so many of those will suddenly find they cannot cast a vote after all. As one someone pointed out recently they supposedly fight to install a democracy in one country while by government ’sleight of hand’ are at the same time denied taking part in their own country
Weathercock, how many former servicemen/women are still living and likely to vote?
Suggest it is considerably more than 300,000.
Obama has used an executive order to name Bart Stupak as Grand Poobah and Absolute Monarch of Guantanamo Bay in perpetuity… no indication yet if this has anything to do with Obamacare, though.
If stupak votes against after all this he’s up for a serious primary challenge for sure…
189- Stupak to make announcement in 20 minutes…
re182
A conspiracy theory too far that one! For as a set up it makes not the individuals in question look bad but makes it look as corruption goes to the very heart of this rotten Government! Not that it doesn’t anywway!
by IainM March 21st, 2010 at 7:36 pm
So why were these three picked on, Browns team should have selected one that had not tried to get Brown out.
It will make a good story when we learn whos idea it was, and who was in on it.
188 - Don’t forget their families too.
Is why I’ve backed the Tories to win Colchester (before Mark Senior explodes and quotes the last council results, it’s just a long term hunch based on speaking purely on Army families)
re188
Also we are only deaing with about 9,000 in Afghanistan, unless we are being misled about the numbers. The other factor is that in particular regts there might be high numbers of troops from a few swing constituencies and that even a couple of hundred votes could swing a result in a tight fight!
The House floor is a complete mess…
re195
It is a dangerous game to play as it is not just negative publicity for those individuals it is negative publicity for a govt and they need that like they need a hole in the head!
Voting for the bill in the house going on now.
197 -even a couple of hundred votes could swing a result in a tight fight!
quite see 190
In US House, Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr (D-IL) has been in the chair. And looks to me that he’s been doing a fine job, evenhanded but firm.
House is now conducting roll call vote on GOP point of order: will House consider the rules of debate re: earmark reform.
Guy on CSPAN radio says that there will more votes on similar points of order, likely to consume an hour or more. Then two hours more of general debate, then more votes. So long time yet before The Vote.
Clearly, GOP is hoping to upset the applecart on at least one of these procedural votes.
Has anybody played with the tax calculator linked from Danny Finks blog?
It’s very scary and bloody annoying.
http://www.reform.co.uk/Research/Economy/ReformTaxCalculators/tabid/167/Default.aspx
191…… I was talking of active personnel only.
200. Mayhem in and outside congress. Here that the vote taking place is only procedural.
Since the MPs in the sting are mostly Friends of Tony, I wonder how that will impact his election apperances ?
The stench of corruption is hitting the electorate before he’s even got off the plane.
Will he comments on his tax status ?
C-Span reporting that Stupak has been appeased and will now vote for the Bill.
here=hear. Doh!
160, how unsurprising Labour may stop the armed forces from voting, given that.
164, I agree with your view, expressed by others here as well.
196 The only problem with that is that Colchester is Lib Dem held and they have worked very hard to embed themselves with the seat on that topic. It could fall but is not the far easier task it would be for the Tories if it were Labour held as with Portsmouth North.
206. But it’s only a rumour, unsubstantiated.
209 - There is also a 20% Labour vote to squeeze in Colchester.
209 - I know, but it does have nearly 9,000 Labour voters to be squeezed.
Will be interesting how they split.
193, Socrates - don’t agree. While Move On & Huffers would be chomping at the bit, Stupak is prit’near invulnerable in his district, which is the Upper Peninsula plus the northern half of Michigan’s “mainland”. Doubt that Yoopers will chuck him out short of personal embarassment (like they did to his GOP predecessor). And just as doubtful (I reckon) that Stupak will vote Nay today.
marcambinder: White House official says text of Executive Order will be released “very soon.
We can very safely infer from that Stupak’s a yes.
210- Seems likely, though. If so, then Obamacare is in the books in one form or another (no telling what the Senate will do with the reconciliation bill), and then it’s on to an amnesty bill for twelve million illegals. If you think the country is divided now, just wait…
211 Yes. Some could go to the Tories but would it be enough. A very big ask for the Tories. The only major factor in their favour is that Essex looks like turning to them quite heavily overall meaning neighbouring seats can swamp Colchester with manpower if they want. Most likely result would be a high turnout with a Lib Dem hold on a reduced majority with an outside chance of a Tory gain.
I guess that the rest of Intrade’s punters are just waiting for Pelosi to dance on a table before buying more and more shares. It’s oscillating between 93 and 94 now.
I’m actually all-in ; my available balance is empty now…
202 SSI
I have been hunting all over US gov sites to find out why JJ Jr is in the chair. Nothing in Nancy Pelosi’s pages AFAICS.
Would you happen to know of a web page giving the protocols governing who takes the Chair as House Speaker?
216 - I’d want 4 or 5/1 on the Tory in that seat. 6/4 is a joke.
215.
Western Europe welcomes the United States into the club of civilised nations today.
Could Cameron demand the suspension of the Labour whip from Byers, Hoon, and Hewitt in PMQs?
Brown would love to do it, and most Labourites hate Hoon and Hewitt in particular for the coup - but could it reignite the Blair-Brown wars?
220 I’m sure that Americans just love being patronised in that way.
219 - That was my fault, Shadsy priced it up as a wedding present for me.
I got some good odds on it back in October.
220- You mean the part about Obamacare or the part about floods of illegal immigrants?
Ed Stupac about to speak now on MSNBC.
He seems very jolly.
220 BenM
when does the Uk get in ?
Do we have to wait for Brown to go ?
Re 220 ROFLMAO
People on here are always criticising blu tinted spectacles
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-1259447/Tom-Heaffey-The-boy-blue-tinted-glasses-cured-Meares-Irlen-syndrome.html
Stupac has an agreement with the President.
Current rollcall in US House is prodecural, to be followed by a few other procedural votes before we get to The Vote.
However ALL votes are critical today.
BTW, the pix on Politico.com of Speaker Pelosi and other Democrats walking to the Capitol earlier today, being heckled by teabaggers, is a classic.
NOTE the look on face of Rep. John Lewis (D-GA). Which mirror the look he had way back when, the day that he and his fellow freedom marchers on the Pettis Bridge over the Selma River approached that line of Alabama state troopers readying their billy clubs . . .
222 Sean Fear any thoughts on Colchester and the seats in Wales as discussed in response to the PB2 piece.
219 - I have backed the Lib Dems in Colchester at 4/9 with Ladbrokes and am quite happy with those odds. Regard it as one that will take something very unusual for the Lib Dems to lose. Possible but the odds should be nearer 1/4 on.
Apologies if this has been posted before
Labour MPs plan to join Commons strike on Budget Day
A number of Labour MPs are planning to take part in a Commons strike on Budget Day in a move that will intensify the controversy over the party’s links to the unions.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/labour/7493650/Labour-MPs-plan-to-join-Commons-strike-on-Budget-Day.html
*** ANECDOTE ALERT ***
Re. 216
From canvass: Harlow (Essex, Lab marginal) - voters strongly for the Sod You All Party this week. Clear stay-away mood now. Hitherto expected to be Con shoo-in, high turnout. Funny old wossname, this politics business.
Perhaps we could sell our NHS managerial system to the States as its so effecient.
re219
Well there might be somebody who has had a punt on the Tories and thus the miserable odds!?
230 Any thoughts on whether the GOP bloodletting in Florida could deliber either or both the Senate seat and Governorship to the Democrats.
More on the farce of an NHS IT System
Where the NHS’s software scheme went wrong
It was a flagship New Labour project, but the National Programme for IT has been beset by one problem after another
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/mar/21/nhs-national-program-problems?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter
194. It does seem so convenient that Hoon, Byers and Hewitt have moral turpitude added on to their thought crimes to decry the great Gordon Brown. Funny how the sights have turned on the plotters who argued Brown was going to destroy Labour as an electoral force.
How did the story manage to imply that Blaiites are tainted and as white as driven slush, and how the Brownies are incorruptible, unless of course they have been allegedly granting planning permissions for donations, or allowing quangos to funnel funds for Labour.
Funnily enough the saga of Brown’s secret slush fund has almost been forgotten, unless Mr Watt made it all up.
231 I think Colchester will stay Lib Dem.
ObamaCare is virtually Law of the Land now.
234 - The US spends more on health admin, just admin, than it does on the military, around 30% of total health spending.
It’s roughly 6% in this country.
239. Do you think it will be close or comfortable for them given that Essex overall looks easy for the Tories freeing up Tory activists to swamp Colchester if they wish. Also any predictions on the Wales discussion.
I caught the end of an interview on BBC News a few minutes ago with an “expert” Professor “Sofer”.
He stated “I do not think that the Board is fully behind Willie Walsh!”
He seemed to be echoing the view from the Union. Anyone know who this professor is? How impartial?
Stupak says yea.
95
Glen Moray is the one.
The Dalwhinnie is nice, but Glen Moray is the one to sip.
(of course if you’re planning to indulge with other stuff, consider Glenkinchie - very light)
230- I’m surprised at your fondness for the term “teabagger,” SSI. Normally you’re completely above board… I would have thought it beneath you. Should I refer to “Obamao,” “Obamanation,” “Zero,” etc.? What does that add to the discussion?
233 - Whereabouts in Harlow were you?
OT Just watched Clegg on the PS - oh dear. Thought he started well and then deteriorated into getting rather overbearing, confused on what he was saying and talking far too much.
Clearly he’s been spending too much time with Chris Huhne
Still, it wasn’t half as terrible as Our Glorious Leader’s personal car crash.
If you haven’t seen it - Cameron doing his usual turn this time in Peckham in rather interesting viewing.
http://www.conservatives.com/Get_involved/Cameron_Direct.aspx
Lots of emphasis as you’d expect from church groups.
re245
The ones I listed are the one I have in stock. Not planning on buying any, as the ones I listed were birthday presents for my 50th!
218, Prodicus - as in the UK House of Commons, under the rules of the US House of Representativesm, the Speaker can (and very frequently does) delegates another Member to preside in the chair. Thus allowing the Speaker to attend to other business.
Same is true in the US Senate, where most of the time the person in the chair is NOT the Vice President, or even the (Senate) President Pro Tem(pore).
Of course, the Speaker can and does preside in person when she so desires. Which will be the case for today final, historic vote.
241- That number is completely wrong, tim. The Kaiser Foundation estimates admin costs at 7% of healthcare spending.
224. I mean health care.
Once again it takes a notionally centre left president to tackle the Really big issues.
Once again selfish embittered conservatives get left stranded in the wake of progress.
Huntley hospitalised:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/8579226.stm
233. Given you only need another 100 votes to take the seat, surely it is still a shoo-in?
Or put another way, if its not a shoo-in, Gord will be relaxing in Downing St for another five years.
FoxNews in Thailand just switched to “Fox and Friends”…
246, S&S - what does it add? About as much as constant references to “Obamacare”.
However, am getting just wee bit erked by cretins (and that does NOT include all Earl Grey Lovers just a significant minority) who are using patriotic imagery to justify perveracation & thuggery.
242 There are three easier targets in Essex, so I expect that’s where the Conservaives will be working.
Just heard Stupak, Allan Mollohan (D-WV) and other pro-life Dems announcing they will vote Aye on basis of presidential executive order.
Talking about seats in Essex, anyone got any information on how Castle Point will turn out?
Will Bob Spink be re-elected?
Apologies if this has been posted before but here is the Daily Mash’s Children’s Guide to Brown’s Britain.
A CHILD’S GUIDE TO MODERN BRITAIN
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=2568&Itemid=81
247
I should have said ’second hand anecdote alert’ - I was elsewhere, so, sorry - am unable to clarify. Were you in Harlow too?
256– Intrade baptized the contract “OBAMACARE.PASS.JUN10″; “Will ‘Obamacare’ health care reform become law in the United States?” I was quite surprised. But then, there was RomneyCare as well.
Thought the forced choice question in the ST yougov poll was interesting.
A 43 - 38 lead for Cameron. This has to be encouraging for Labour as it suggests a higher ceiling of support, and a group of voters potentially susceptible to a squeeze message. Also, the figures amongst the Lib Dems where Labour are favoured 43 - 26.
As a point of comparison in Feb 2005 the forced choice had Labour leading by 10 (46 - 36), so this is a big swing from then. But among Lib Dems Labour were favoured 51-31, a lead of 20 points compared to 17 now.
This is important to interpreting tactical voting / unwind.
255, Phillipe - then check out C-SPAN on your laptop, for streaming video (or audio) of US House.
250 - Many thanks, SSI
237 jsfl - It’s not a farce, it is an absolute disgrace: Labour should hang their heads in shame. It could be as much as £6bn or even more flushed down the drain. Incredible! And the media hardly bother to report it.
Healthcare vote in the House at 8pm EST (midnight in London). It’s in the bag. Philippe is working his way steadily to punter of the year!!
251 - Results In 1999, health administration costs totaled at least $294.3 billion in the United States, or $1,059 per capita, as compared with $307 per capita in Canada. After exclusions, administration accounted for 31.0 percent of health care expenditures in the United States and 16.7 percent of health care expenditures in Canada. Canada’s national health insurance program had overhead of 1.3 percent; the overhead among Canada’s private insurers was higher than that in the United States (13.2 percent vs. 11.7 percent). Providers’ administrative costs were far lower in Canada.
http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/abstract/349/8/768?ijkey=6019d541ce708d96a9ebcd5580add865940d77eb&keytype2=tf_ipsecsha
261 - Not recently, my sister lives there though. No way that Harlow isnt going to be a Conservative gain by more than 5k.
258. Obama has already achieved huge investments in the country’s infrastructure and education, and now he’s finally given the United States near universal healthcare. Even if he achieves nothing in the rest of his presidency, he’s still achieved more than Clinton.
And no doubt many more on the left would be attracted to the Libdems if this was true:
LIB DEMS PLEDGE 20% INCREASE IN SEMEN-FILLED TUBE SOCKS
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/politics/politics-headlines/lib-dems-pledge-20%25-increase-in-semen%11filled-tube-socks-201003122554/
Again apologies if this has been posted previously!
263 Oddly, the same question on Monday gave a 6% Conservative lead, compared to a 5% in voting intention. In that survey, Lib Dem supporters divided far more evenly between the two parties.
259 I hope not.
254
Oh yes, indeed. We’re banking on the Labour Sod You All vote outnumbering the Conservative Sod You All vote.
270- Clinton acheieved a lot, i.e., peace and prosperity. That might not mean much to socialists who only see progress in terms of the growth of government, but it was pretty good for those of us who lived through it.
269 failing to win Harlow would be a disaster for the Conservatives, although the chances of it happening are about 0.1%.
273 - Halfon will be in with acres of votes to spare.
274 Actually, I think the combination of a Democrat President and Republican House and Senate worked pretty well.
248-Cleggy reminded a bit today of Brian Paddick.
The LDs have for too long wanted to eat their cake and still have it.
The all things to all people party.
But when they are confronted on single issues where they have to give a definitive answer they flounder.
That is why i am not one of those who thinks that the LDs are going to gain out of the televised debates.
People will just think “What is the point in voting for them”
Bloomberg - USA may also lose AAA stature.
Advanced economies have “acute debt problems”
Rogers says “i’m shunning sterling, its pretty awful”
Anyone really think we are through the bad times yet?
PS - Same prog reports that Darling says “he will not raise taxes on rich” (in budget).
270 Socrates
Agreed.
Whether you believe it is for the better or the worse, after tonight Obama will have truly transformed American society.
275, 276
:-)
It’ll be all right on the night, i.e. Con easy win, but it may be a rather smaller maj than it might have been a while back.
There is definitely an increase in the Hang ‘Em All tendency even in respectable Tory Essex. I blame the bloggers
DK’s bastard son, OH, is getting a lot more readers these days.
277.
Although Clinton achieved what he did in spite of the Republican controlled houses - not because of them.
266. Richard N.
Farce, disgrace whatever. Yes it is. And it is just the same as the rest of the exorbitantly expensive IT failures that this Government has commissioned. Basically most of these IT projects should have been killed at birth. They are too big, too ambitious and too complex to ever be anything but obsolete before they come to fruition.
Mike
Boring opening article.
I am delighted that David Cameron is calling for an investigation into the Byers and Co nonsense and that the LibDems are reporting the nasty piece of work to the Parliamentary Standards Commissioner.
MPs can be troughers in lots of ways. Thank goodness the hideous trio are on the way out. Of course we old former real Labour Party members always hated the right wing bums. Just Tories in disguise; but, of course, once Blair stole the Labour Party they were able to drop their disguises and behave like Blair Tories.
System broken beyond repair!
Doesn’t matter who wins the election - nothing will change, except perhaps for the worse - and the ones that will be hit hardest will be the poor, the sick, the old and the young - the very groups studiously ignored by Blair and Brown’s NuLabour, despite their spin.
274. Well the United States is already seeing a strong return to growth while Europe remains in the doldrums thanks to Obama’s economic policy. His investments in infrastructure will also help this strongly…
What precisely is your definition of “peace”? Obama hasn’t started any fresh wars, while Clinton intervened in Yugoslavia. (For the record, I don’t believe ‘not getting involved in any military conflicts’ is necessarily a plus in a presidency. Clinton’s lack of intervention in Rwanda is probably the biggest stain on his record (no pun intended!)).
And, for the record, I was not measuring achievements in terms of growth of the government. I just think that making sure everyone can access treatment when they get sick is an achievement. Although I know as its only poor people that apparently doesn’t matter much for Republicans…
277- Building on what Socrates said, it may well be that, by November, even people who were Obama-friendly will feel that Obama has bitten off more than they care to chew in terms of huge new left-wing policies and they will be more than ready to restore some balance. They will know that Democrats posing as centrists, such as Stupak, can’t be trusted to do anything but tow the party line, so voting “R” will be the only way to bring that balance.
Have we heard anything from Gordo on the latest Labour sleaze scandal, or is he doing his Macavity routine as usual?
271 jsfl A seriously funny article once I cottoned onto
“Ms Arrowsmith, the candidate for Gravesham in Kent, has become a major ideological force within the party after pioneering the concept of Liberal Democrat pornography in the late 1990s.”
But not for the easily shocked.
In real life there is always the Prawn free column version of Lembit’s articles in the Daily Sport.
http://tinyurl.com/yfyam2o
And surprise surprise Union intimidation is back:
Threats and abuse for the BA staff standing up to the strikers
The emails, posted late on Friday evening, were chillingly concise and their content clear: “If any of you go into work tomorrow, your life won’t be worth living,” one read.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/travelnews/7488530/Threats-and-abuse-for-the-BA-staff-standing-up-to-the-strikers.html
It’s an open question whether “Obamacare” or “Romneycare” are prejoratives or not. Though seems pretty clear those most likely to use these formulation believe that’s the case.
With respect to “tea party patriots” versus “teabagger wackos” clearly neither term is the slighest bit neutral. Of course, can be said that they call themselves the former. BUT that has not stopped GOPers from referring to the “Democrat Party” and etc, when the term that we’ve used (since the days of Andrew Jackson) is “Democratic Party”.
S&S, I’ve noted that YOU almost always say “Democratic” which I do appreciate. One of the reasons I like you despite your misguided politics! And one reason why I’ve neither made an issue previously of “Obamacare” nor used “teabagger” except when I feel provoked!
282 I would say it was the fact that neither of them had untrammelled control that caused the government to work effectively.
Sorry TSE , you have wastes some money .
Most of the Army vote in Colchester is in the 2 Essex CC wards of Abbey and Maypole .
In 2005 Maypole was a 3 way marginal narrowly won by Labour with Libdems 2nd and Conservatives a close 3rd . In 2009 it was again a 3 way marginal won by the Libdems with Conservatives again a close 3rd .
In 2005 Abbey was an easy Libdem win with Labour a poor 2nd . In 2009 It was an even easier Libdem win with over 50% of the vote Greens 2nd and Conservatives 3rd .
Final results from France…
Picardie: Left 48.28 UMP 32.43 FN 19.3 Turnout 51.16
Franche Comté: Left 47.41 UMP 38.36 FN 14.23 Turnout 57.95
Champagne Ardenne: Left 44.31% UMP 38.49 FN 17.19 Turnout 48.95%
Basse Normandie: Left 56,51 % UMP 43.49%
Centre: Left 49.22% UMP 36,66 % FN 14.12%
Bourgogne: Left 52,65 % UMP 33,53 %, FN 13,82 %
Lorraine: Left 49.99% UMP 31,55 % FN 18,45 %
Auvergne: Left 59,68% UMP 40,32%
Corse: left 36.62% UMP 27.65 Regionalists 25.89 Regionalists 9.85%
286. It’s not a left-wing agenda. This is a healthcare bill similar to what Gingrich offered as an alternative to HillaryCare, similar to what Romney created in Massachussetts and that is more right-wing than Nixon’s effort. It has over 100 GOP amendments in it. His stimulus package also had a significant portion made up of tax cuts. This is a centrist presidency - it’s just the Republicans have gone off the deep end in their right-wingery, so he seems leftist by comparison.
290 I really did think it was the Democrat Party.
New thread up
293 At least two, and possibly four, regions then, where FN cost the UMP control.
Quenten Letts
Elsewhere in the world of political donations, let us examine the board of the Union Modernisation Fund, a government body which hands out millions of pounds a year to unions. Which themselves pay millions of pounds a year to the Labour Party. The fund has eight board members. Of these, five campaign for the Labour Party and one is a member of the Cooperative Party, which is affiliated to Labour. Perhaps this fund might make a good subject for a Radio 4 Today programme investigation.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-1259300/Sally-Alley-spiked-vol-au-vents-.html#ixzz0iqXjyLMY
Rob Halfon is the most recognised Tory candidate for name recognition amongst non-MPs . Rammell’s majority last time was 97. Shame his name always makes me think of semi-on…
He will win easily
285- If you think America’s economy is doing great, you might want to tell that to the millions who can’t get jobs and have little hope of finding one anytime soon in spite of the fact that Obama has been mortgaging their futures, and their children’s futures, by spending like a drunken sailor on pork barrel projects and propping up the public sector and unions at the expense of the private sector (and that spending has been directed overwhelmingly to districts represented by his fellow Democrats).
The distinction between Obama and Clinton on war is simple. There was virtually no war under Clinton (and the interventions he undertook were minimal), while Obama has redoubled efforts in Afghanistan. That is his war now, not Bush’s. You can argue about whether he made the right decision there, but you can’t credibly argue that he’s brought peace to the Middle East or south Asia in any sense.
294. It’s not, but it flummoxes me that it annoys fellow Democrats so much when that term is used. It’s like Lib Dems being upset by being called “the Liberals”. Neither are pejorative terms.
I CAN understand tea partiers getting upset at the term “tea bagger”, but they shot themselves in the foot by saying they were going to “tea bag the White House” without realising the connotations…
NEW THREAD
132.Guido has always been a lot less partisan than he is given credit for, he is an equal opportunities Libertarian. Labour are in government, so they have been by far the biggest target of his blog to date for that reason alone. If that changes at this GE, then I expect his focus will turn much more to making sure the Tories are kept on their toes. I predict that he will then go from being public enemy blogger No1 to become a darling of the left leaning blogsphere very quickly.
by ChristinaD March 21st, 2010 at 7:03 pm
Could happen but somehow I doubt it. It all rather depends on how libertarian, or not Camerons blue team actually turn out to be in practise. Remember that Staines is/was a big fan of Thatcher, and saw her as broadly libertarian, as most of us did at the time.
The Labour movement in general has self-evidently gone FASCIST in all but name. What is more those that still support Labour are more devoutly corporatist then Labour supporters have ever been in the past. The Labour Party have not only sold out to the corporatist establishment, The Labour Party is effectively the party of the corporatist establishment, and progressively seen to be so even by the vast majority of its remaining supporters.
A majority of libertarians are indeed generally more inclined to vote Conservative, especially those that can clearly remember the sixties and seventies. However this support was only lent on a short term lease. Conservatism and libertarianism are indeed similar ideologies, but at heart libertarianism is a LEFTIST or radical ideology. Right-Wing Socialism better known as Fabianism or FASCISM is the sworn enemy of all things libertarian.
Libertarians can not seek to conserve what in the main part no longer exists. For example the better parts of the British constitution, freedom, truth, justice, and common law. Thanks in no small part to the last 13 years of overtly corporatist government, and the primacy of the EU, and all that will most surly go with it in the future.
Therefore IMO Free-market libertarians have a straight choice. Either give-up, hang out the white flag, and go get permanently pissed. Or unite with what remains of the libertarian left, and start working together in common cause. I have no doubt that this force would represent at least 60% of the population as a whole. The forces of liberty and freedom of the individual have been divided for way too long. We have been deliberately divided, which is why we are all now falling into the deepest abyss.
118 - “guidofawkes
Think next week is going to have an intense news agenda: might even be dusting off the crosshairs.”
now we are talking
86 ukpaul
Earl Pomeroy is my rep when I’m in ND. Saw him give an excellent address at the Sioux Fall Pow-wow in Bismarck a couple of years ago. He gets almost 100% of the native American vote because of the steps he has taken to help them with their self-help economic programmes.
Great guy who was wobbling on the abortion issue. Not a very hot potato in ND at the moment but Pomeroy has some prominent catholic backers in the Dem party in the east of the state.
Can’t wait to get back to the little house on the prairie; we’ll be away for the general election and won’t have to put up with all the nonsense on TV. Whacko, what.