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And the gap widens with YouGov and YouGov/BPIX

March 27th, 2010
YG daily poll: Sunday Times Mar 26 Mar 25
CONSERVATIVES 37% 37%
LABOUR 32% 33%
LIB DEMS 19% 18%
LAB to CON swing from 2005 4% 3.5%
YG/BPIX: Mail on Sunday Mar 26 Mar 5
CONSERVATIVES 37% 36%
LABOUR 30% 34%
LIB DEMS 20% 18%
LAB to CON swing from 2005 5% 2.5%

Two further polls add to the picture

After the ICM poll earlier showing an increase in the Tory lead from 6 to 8 points we are getting the same broad trend from two further polls for tomorrow’s papers.

The YouGov daily poll sees Labour drop a point while BPIX, which also operates on the YouGov platform, sees the Tories move up one while Labour drops four.

Polling is all about trends even when the movements are small and the picture tonight is just a little better for the blue team.

On a strict application of the UNS none of them have Cameron’s party in overall majority territory but with the bigger leads being reported from the marginals the big picture is probably a Tory overall majority – just.

What’s this going to do to the betting markets? There’s a long way to go.

Mike Smithson